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The underlying problems are energy-related
A few years ago, I analyzed the growth of world energy consumption, breaking it down into (a) the growth in energy consumption needed to support the growth in world population, and (b) the growth in energy consumption available to support higher standards of living. This analysis covered the period 1820 to 2020. I found that periods of low growth tended to coincide with wars, depressions, and collapses. This is not surprising in a world economy governed by the laws of physics. Every part of the economy requires adequate energy of appropriate kinds.
In this post, I analyze data for 5-year periods, ending in 2024, to obtain an updated view of recent energy consumption and population trends. My conclusion is that total energy consumption growth in recent years has not been sufficient to forestall major problems. A more detailed analysis reveals that growth in certain vital resources (the diesel+jet fuel part of oil supply, and critical minerals related to electricity production and usage) is particularly problematic.
These findings indicate that the economy is already beginning to hit energy limits. Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.
[1] Figure 2 is a stacked bar chart showing similar indications to Figure 1.
The total of the red and blue segments is the average annual increase in world energy consumption over a particular 10-year period. The blue amounts (usually at the bottom) are those necessary to provide services at the same level as in the past, given the population increase. The red amounts (usually at the top) are determined by subtraction. Large red caps are good, while red caps below the zero line are very bad. They indicate that the per-capita energy supply is declining.
[2] The largest increases in Figure 2 correspond to favorable economic times.
The vertical text in Figure 1 provides examples of how low points in energy consumption have proven to be very bad. In this section, I show that the opposite is also true: High points tend to correspond to very good times economically.
One peak in Figures 1 and 2 coincides with the 1901 to 1910 period. This period corresponds to early electrification and advances in the mechanization of agriculture. It was before 1913 when the United Kingdom hit peak coal, limiting the amount of coal that could be profitably extracted. Germany hit peak hard coal shortly before World War II. After peak coal was reached, less coal was available per capita. Leaders felt the pressure of “not enough coal to go around” and opted for war.
In Figures 1 and 2, rapid energy growth occurred after World War II, during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. The lower peak in the 2001-2010 period coincided with much greater use of coal after China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001. High-wage countries started transferring their industry to China because costs would be lower in two ways: Wage costs were lower, and coal was an inexpensive fuel, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, by transferring industry, including manufacturing and mining, to China, high-wage countries could also lower their own CO2 emissions, as required by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
We would expect the patterns we are seeing in Figures 1 and 2 if the world economy is governed by the laws of physics. The availability of plenty of inexpensive energy, of kinds that match built infrastructure, is what is needed to allow the world economy to grow.
[3] Figure 3 shows more recent world energy data organized by 5-year periods. It shows how small the “red caps” of the types leading to favorable economic outcomes have been in the last decade.
The latest two 5-year periods comprise the years 2015 to 2024. The short red caps on these two 5-year periods mean that the economy is already being squeezed in the direction of not-enough-to go-around.
[4] Viewed on this same basis, diesel and jet fuel supplies are being squeezed even more than the overall supply of energy products.
Diesel and jet fuel are somewhat similar in composition. They are grouped together in some energy reports as “middle distillates.” They are relatively heavy oil products that come out of oil refineries. If there is a shortage of one, there likely is a shortage of the other as well.
Diesel and jet fuel are of concern because, since 2015, there has been an actual shrinkage in the amount of these fuels available relative to population. In fact, every five-year period since the 2000 to 2004 period has shown less growth in diesel and jet fuel than in the overall world energy supply. (Compare Figures 3 and 4.)
The low growth of diesel+jet fuel is particularly concerning because these fuels are essential for international transportation. With too little of these oil types, trade across the Atlantic and Pacific needs to shrink back. The physics of the situation makes tariffs look like an attractive solution for reducing trade.
Another concern is that diesel is essential for food production and transportation. Even if some other types of energy are available in plentiful supply, we cannot get along without food. While wind and solar are popular energy types today, they are not very useful for either international transport or for operating modern agricultural equipment.
[5] The underlying problem is that populations tend to outgrow their resource bases, including energy supplies.
The issue of the world not being able to support endlessly rising human population is an issue that no politician, auto maker, or economist wants to mention. The standard work-around is to show energy supplies without using an adjustment to a per-capita basis. This tends to make the energy situation look much better than it really is. Figure 6 is an example of such a chart.
Figure 6 emphasizes how modest the recent add-ons to the fossil fuel supply really are. These add-ons are made possible by fossil fuels; they would tend to disappear if fossil fuels were to disappear. Nuclear, which is the largest of the add-ons, requires both uranium and fossil fuels. The category “Wind+Solar” is the tiny green stripe at the top of Figure 6. In 2024, Wind+Solar amounted to 2.8% of world energy supply.
[6] It is easy to make electricity look like a growth area that can continue its pattern forever.
Figure 7 is a world electricity chart that, like Figure 6, is not on a per-capita basis.
There are a few details that are easy to miss:
(a) Current electricity production is quite small compared to the total energy supply. As counted by the Energy Institute, electricity amounts to only about 20% of total energy, varying by year and by part of the world. It is already incorporated in Figure 6.
(b) Almost all the non-fossil fuel part of the energy supply (“Add-Ons”) is electricity. In Figure 6, the only type of non-fossil energy shown that is not electricity is biofuels. These are mostly ethanol and biodiesel.
(c) Another detail that is easy to miss is the fact that the growth in the world’s electricity supply, as shown in Figure 7, has been almost exclusively outside the Advanced Economies–that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Advanced Economies group includes the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and several other countries.
Figure 8 shows the growth in electricity generation separately for the Advanced Economies and the Other Economies. The chart shows that generation of electricity by the Advanced Economies grew until 2007 but flattened after that date. Electricity generation by the Other Economies has grown the entire time since 1985. The rate of electricity production growth of Other Economies became noticeably more rapid after China joined the WTO in 2001.
Also, population growth since 1985 has disproportionately taken place in Other Economies, as contrasted with Advanced Economies.
[7] In the Advanced Economies, electricity production has recently been falling on a per capita basis, making a shift to greater electrification seem difficult.
A major issue is that the Advanced Economies are already seeing their electricity supplies per capita declining as shown on Figure 10 below. This is true for all five of the selected economies. Some of the lower consumption is due to efficiency improvements, but some is the result of the offshoring of jobs and industries to low-wage countries.
In comparison, electricity production per capita of other economies, with typically lower wages than Advanced Economies and often accompanied by more rapid population growth, has tended to rise, as shown on Figure 11.
The four “Other Economies” are less similar to each other than the five Advanced Economies. But what is striking is that they all have shown growth in per-capita electricity production since 1999. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s electricity production had risen to about the per-capita level of the US’s electricity production. By 2024, China’s per-capita electricity production had surpassed that of both the EU and the UK. Russia was part of the Soviet Union before the latter collapsed in 1991. Once Russia’s economy had started recovering from the collapse, about 1999, its per-capita electricity production also began to rise.
[8] Other issues are also making a continued shift to electrification appear difficult, particularly for the Advanced Economies.
Trying to work around using fossil fuels leads to the need for more specialized minerals to produce high tech electrical goods and electricity transmission. The problem faced by Advanced Economies is that they produce practically none of these minerals; they must import them. The US has a long list of minerals it considers critical.
Some of these minerals aren’t rare in the earth’s crust. Part of the problem is the lack of industrial capacity in Advanced Economies today, as industry has been moved overseas to reduce costs and local CO2 emissions. For example, the US used to be a major producer of aluminum, but this production has dwindled; other countries, including China, can produce aluminum at lower cost.
Another issue is that China produces the majority of quite a few of these minerals. The US, and probably the other Advanced Economies, had planned to buy what they needed on the world market. Now, production is not keeping up with the amount the world could easily use. In 2025, China announced export restrictions on some minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. It has become clear that if Advanced Economies want to have adequate supplies of high-demand minerals (including silver, copper, platinum, rare earth minerals, and uranium, among others), they need to start producing them themselves.
Diesel is used in extracting many of these minerals. If diesel is in short supply, that adds another layer of problems. All these issues may lie behind President Trump’s interest in Greenland.
[9] We don’t hear about these issues partly because academic researchers live in ivory towers, and partly because politicians don’t dare explain the issues to voters.
Part of the problem is that economists don’t understand how tightly the various parts of the world economy are interconnected through the laws of physics. Economists tend to believe that if there is a shortage, prices will rise, and these higher prices will solve nearly all problems. This is not necessarily the case. Buyers cannot purchase more than they can afford. Prices may spike temporarily and then fall back. Production of fossil fuels or minerals may end because prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, for producers to depend upon the higher prices for the long term.
In the case of a shortage, most people assume that the only change the economy will make is in prices. However, the economy is tightly interconnected. It can move production to a different part of the world, where wages and energy costs are lower. An indirect result, in the country losing jobs, may be more wage and wealth disparity. The US seems to be experiencing this issue now, with fewer young people being able to find a job that pays well.
Needless to say, politicians aren’t willing to admit, “We have difficulties for which we can see no solution.” Even leaders of universities are reluctant to suggest that there might be major problems ahead. They don’t want to frighten students or their parents. University officials want all problems to be ones their students can work on, with the hope of solving them in the next few years.
[10] What is happening now is similar to the outcome of a game of musical chairs, when there is one fewer chair than the number of players.
In the game of musical chairs, players walk around a group of chairs until the music stops. At the end of each round, one chair is removed, leaving one fewer chair than the number of players. In the next round, the remaining players all scramble for the chairs available, which often leads to small fights over who gets a chair. This not-enough-to-go-around problem explains the poor relations we see today among countries and political parties. It is also the underlying reason for the interest in imposing tariffs and in bombing other countries.
Financial markets tend to perform well during periods of economic growth. However, if certain kinds of essential resources are in short supply, this will tend to hold back growth. Debt defaults and falling stock markets could result. For these reasons, problems in financial markets may be ahead.
Major governmental changes may be ahead. Representative governments require more energy than simpler types of organizations, such as dictatorships. Furthermore, citizens do not like disorder; they may want to overthrow leaders who seem to allow too much disorder. They may vote them out of office or even try to assassinate them. The problem of resource inadequacy is structural, however. Getting rid of a particular leader doesn’t necessarily help the situation.
Everywhere in the world, at least part of today’s problem is that there are not enough jobs available that pay well. Economists have told us to expect high prices if there are shortages. In a way, not having enough jobs that pay well is the opposite problem. But from a physics standpoint, the result is the same. Only a few people can afford many of the goods that are available. The economists’ misinterpretation of what is going wrong further confuses people’s understanding of our current situation.
Mainstream media needs to cater to advertisers. Because of this issue, we cannot expect them to tell us what is happening. That task seems to fall to bloggers, like me. I try to write an article approximately every month. I hope that the graphs and other figures I have presented in this article will help readers understand why we are currently seeing more types of disruptions, such as tariffs and bombings.
Israel has closed some holy sites, making Palestinians unhappy:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-israel-keep-al-aqsa-mosque-closed-through-eid-al-fitr-and-beyond
Israel to keep Al-Aqsa Mosque closed through Eid al-Fitr and beyond
Israel is set to keep Al-Aqsa Mosque closed through the upcoming Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr and beyond, Middle East Eye has learnt. . .
This has been the first Ramadan since Israel seized East Jerusalem in 1967 that Palestinians have been unable to perform Friday prayers at the mosque.
The closure of the mosque has been accompanied by a near-total lockdown of the Old City, where Al-Aqsa Mosque and dozens of normally vibrant Palestinian-run markets are located.
Only residents of the Old City have been allowed inside since the war with Iran began, leaving the area deserted. . . .
Al-Aqsa Mosque has been governed under a decades-long status quo, or international arrangement, preserving its religious status as an exclusively Islamic site.
Under this status quo, the administration of the site, including control over access, falls to the Islamic Waqf in Jerusalem, the Jordanian-appointed religious endowment responsible for managing the mosque complex.
However, since Israel’s occupation of East Jerusalem in 1967, Palestinians say this arrangement has been gradually eroded through increasing restrictions on Muslim access while Jewish presence and Israeli control have expanded.
Israel’s control over East Jerusalem, including the Old City, violates several principles of international law, which stipulate that an occupying power has no sovereignty over the territory it occupies and cannot make permanent changes there.
It’s happening…get ready,
Magnets used to bypass diesel pumps in Northwest Florida theft scheme, investigators say
by Copeland WelchMon, March 16, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Updated Tue, March 17, 2026 at 5:23 AM
Investigators say the defendants placed the magnet on the fuel pump, overriding a component — in turn, allowing the fuel to flow freely and bypass the payment system.
The individuals were reportedly caught on surveillance footage filling up multiple semi trucks with diesel fuel.
What did they plan to do with it?
Captain Brad Brady with the Office of Agricultural Law Enforcement says sometimes it’s just for personal gain.
“Based off our experience with this, people that are engaging this type of fuel theft, they’re either selling the fuel on the black market or it could be associated with some other somewhat legitimate business,” he said. “So a trucking business, if you have an owner operator, one of his most expensive line item overheads is fuel.”
James Chapman has been a truck driver for 35 years. He says he knows the cost of diesel all too well.
“About $800, I guess, to fill it up,” he said.
Chapman’s truck has two 80 gallon diesel tanks, but some semi trucks have larger tanks that can hold up to 150 gallons of fuel.
Captain Brady says the scheme caused significant financial losses for the fuel stations, including the Love’s Travel Stop in Santa rose County.
Just filled up my Jerry cans and Fuel Caddy for reserve
A new means of theft!
UK drivers could face harsh speed limits and petrol station restrictions in ’emergency’ oil crisis plans
“Petrol and diesel drivers across the UK could face emergency measures over the coming weeks as the Government prepares for a potential fuel crisis.
Reports suggest the Government has been warned of a “significant shortfall of supply” of fuel in the next eight weeks in response to the situation in the Middle East.
In response to these fears, the National Emergency Plan for Fuel (NEP-F) has been sent to ministers and proposes a number of changes to mitigate any potential fuel crisis that could arise.
Professor Butler told The Telegraph that serious problems would arise if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be shut over the next two or three weeks.
The NEP-F includes a summary of measures to control the supply and demand of fuel, which includes a “Designated Filling Station scheme”.
This would see emergency and critical service vehicles given priority access to road fuel, while the Maximum Purchase Scheme would restrict the sale of fuel at filling stations to a maximum amount per visit.
Professional drivers could also see their hours shortened to cut down on the use of fuel if the oil industry requested a “confined time period”.
https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/uk-drivers-speed-limits-fuel-station-restrictions-oil-crisis
The comments are pure denialism.
“we got plenty of oil in the north sea.
“Russia can sell us all the oil we need…
“This is what the commies want
I hope that someone gets Gail’s…message in a bottle.
Thanks! Nice song!
I perhaps need to work on repackaging my message in different ways, so it gets to more people.
I gave a one-hour talk last week that was recorded. My husband wanted to edit the beginning and end, so it starts right and ends correctly, but he has been busy with other things. Perhaps I can figure out how to put it up as a you tube video. The talk was titled, “Energy and the Economy: A Game of Musical Chairs.”
Also, I did an interview with Dr. Shane Simonsen back in September. This is the email I received today, saying the podcast would be available this Friday.
Hi Gail
Just letting you know your interview on Recombination Nation is scheduled for this Friday (Saturday in USA).
The show notes are below. I was a bit dramatic with the title to help it track better on YouTube, but if that bothers you let me know and I can tone it down. After reading your work for so long I do feel an odd sense of admiration and affection toward you, so the impulse is sincere.
Thanks again for the lovely chat.
*****
Gail Tverberg- My Favourite Data Wrangling Grandma at the End of the Oil Age
Gail Tverberg was a star during the 2000s oil crisis, producing data rich reports on the TheOilDrum.com in a way that only a trained actuary could pull off. She has continued to impress me in subsequent years with her uncommon knack for digging into the numbers beneath the stories that others are trying to spin.
In this interview we discuss the current state of the energy crisis, why a handful of people saw it coming decades ago, and how she hopes society can adapt to the coming challenges.
Read Gail’s regular articles at her website: https://ourfiniteworld.com
Check out a teaser for another podcast interview with Geopolitics and Empire (who also interviewed me a while back): https://youtu.be/pW5xeCGWFjM?si=88rThEep8qIcA1GA
” The empirical evidence for this cliff is not theoretical. Sri Lanka provided a devastating natural experiment in 2021 when President Rajapaksa imposed a sudden, nationwide ban on synthetic fertilizer imports. According to reporting in Foreign Policy and subsequent academic analysis, rice production collapsed by roughly 20 to 50 percent depending on the season, with the Maha harvest dropping approximately 40 percent year-on-year. Rice prices surged. Sri Lanka was forced to expend hundreds of millions in scarce foreign exchange to import emergency rice supplies. The economic crisis contributed directly to the collapse of the government. The post-Soviet fertilizer subsidy removal produced a roughly 34 percent decline in Russian grain output, from 95 million to approximately 63 million tonnes. These are not projections. They are observed outcomes from historical episodes that are structurally analogous to the conditions now emerging across dozens of import-dependent nations. ” ?
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-nitrogen-trap?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6647671&post_id=191106427&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=nm2q&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=mail.google.com&utm_medium=email
you have to wonder if nitrogen is the 2026 equivalent of vaccine shots.
Perhaps leaders will figure out a reason to stop using as much nitrogen fertilizer.
Installment payments are rising faster than their incomes. Young people can no longer afford a car
“Just two decades ago, owning a car was one of the first major purchases a young person would make. This scenario is gradually changing. Today, a car is becoming a financial luxury that most young people cannot afford.
New car prices have skyrocketed, and vehicles are up to 20% more expensive than they were five years ago. Models that were considered affordable mid-range just a decade ago now start at prices that were once typical of the higher-end segment.
The problem is that prices are rising faster than the incomes of young households. Moreover, leasing is just as expensive, and banks won’t lend to just anyone without a history of income. The result is a generation that is getting its own car later than their parents did. However, they still have a few options if they are interested in owning a car at all.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.trend.sk/financie/splatky-rastu-rychlejsie-nez-ich-prijmy-mladi-nemozu-dovolit-auto?itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_modul=trend_topbox&itm_position=1
Well, it’s even worse than the article claims, e.g. the entry very rudimentary models on offer from various manufactures were nixed on the claims of emissions and safety mandates. So, that’s not 20% but 100% rise to get the next model up in their line..
Also in terms of operation, overall costs, apart from more freq. emission check ups, the mandatory insurance premiums skyrocketed, basically if you did not have accident say in 50yrs you are subsidizing yuppie cre@in who destroys 3x Benz per decade, so the insurance companies (cartel) rise the overall level continuously NOT the individual offender’s category as much.
Welcome to the upside down world of hanuman.
I expect the problem of cars being too high-priced for young people exists pretty much everywhere. Prices of cars are sky high, and fuel is also expensive.
Iran War & Fuel Rationing – are “Energy Lockdowns” on the way?
Sri Lanka and Thailand have already brought in rationing measures. In Vietnam they will be grounding flights, beginning in April, due to jet fuel shortages.
On Friday it was reported that a “global fuel shortage may be just days away”.
Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Thailand have also instituted remote work for government employees.
In Denmark, it’s not policy yet, only a suggestion. With government ministers begging – “please, please, please” – not to drive and to reduce their energy usage at home. Australia is going the panic-buying-causes-shortages route.
Bloomberg is warning that the fuel crisis may threaten the global food supply.
It’s all kinda familiar isn’t it…
In case you’re not picking up what we’re putting down here, the Financial Post is warning that…
Oil prices could get high enough to force a COVID-level lockdown
https://off-guardian.org/2026/03/16/iran-fuel-rationing-are-energy-lockdowns-on-the-way/
why ration gasoline when diesl is the problem?
Oil has peaked. that’s the problem.
a plastic rationing is just as rational.
Rationalization for plastic is many fold in that its production uses only 4% of global oil, it lightens the load for materials distribution which avails increased goods production and distribution increasing profit for high production, low-margin goods. Post consumer plastic is resilient landfill material and provides double the economic value in waste handling. /sarc
On the diesel angle:
Now there are 450mi range capable cargo e-trucks in full possible load, i.e. up and down mountain passes, freezing temp etc. Fleet testing done in Canada.
Surprisingly, the Chinese are lagging in this category for some reason, they have build up several luxury brands in passenger cars domain instead (complete waste of resources). The reason of lack of prioritizing could be larger volumes of cargo moved by ships and rail instead? And or needing only the smaller – midsized trucks anyway (allowed in cities).
YT: “Windrose” brand testing in New Zealand
(several manufs are using NZ as testing ground apparently)
vs. the only truly mature product Tesla Semi
PS the charging for the largest ones is crazy ~1MW, the US could feed it with grid coal (states) at least momentarily..
color me skeptical but will be happy to be proven wrong. the energy density of batteries is what it is. specifically 1MJ/kg for top ones, with diesel sitting at 46.
It’s all in the presentations available out there, basically the pitch for e-cargo fleet is lower overall op-costs vs diesel (NOT overcoming the energy density per se).
The truck platform itself then ejects lots of heavy combustion related parts, less maintenance, so dollar-wize it comes on top for the operator like 2:1 or 3:1 .. Plus the option going humandriver-less via FSD / AI drive control, which is a subscription service in the most advanced option.
TSLA has ~completed the various trials and updates around the NorthAmerica (past several years) and now are into mass-manufacturing them.
The issue is charging as alluded above,
they seem to aim for charging hubs around the ~middle part of the US where year round either PVs, hydro, or coal grid is available or could be ~cheaply re-routed from such edge-neighboring states.
The Chinese still play with hot batt swaps though (6minutes) but not sure it will be adopted in the end vs direct charging..
PS obviously there are other legacy brands active as well Iveco, Benz, .. but these are quite behind in dev.. or will focus on niches like mining trucks or lower weight cat. etc.
New pics from the recent Alaska testing, which take place after the years of Canadian fleet test.
So it appears that maximum abuse range (incline + frost) of 400+ mi range belongs to the larger sized batt version, otherwise the lower spec version in fair weather is 325mi range. Deliveries 2026 re-confirmed.
https://tfltruck.com/2026/03/the-updated-tesla-semi-is-cold-weather-testing-in-alaska-goes-on-sale-soon/
update: seems as the real contender from CHN will be another brand the DeepWay (seeded by Baidu), it’s way better than the others although not fully specked as Tesla, for now aims at slightly lower power/range output.
If people stay at home, other changes affect the economy as well. There are fewer restaurants, gyms, and other service providers. Their indirect use of diesel is cut back. There is less food waste because restaurants, banquets, wedding receptions, and the like contribute disproportionately to food usage. They also contribute to needs such as fancy clothing and jewelry. If people can live more simply, there is less need for fossil fuels in general. Less diesel and jet fuel are used also.
Gail—dont want to worry you, but I heard that tourists coming from Norway to UK this summer are to be given an oar and a seat in a longship….
the upside is of course that it’s cheaper.
LOL!
https://youtu.be/xUpvnun0HrM
Oaring basics explained..
Thanks!
I’m keeping my doors locked in case of pillagers
Sri Lanka declares Wednesdays off as Asian countries try to conserve fuel
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5n58rlnzo?xtor=AL-71-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_format=link
Does GDP fall by 20%?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3346123/could-chinas-rare-earth-supplies-dictate-how-long-us-strikes-iran-go
> Could China’s rare earth supplies dictate how long US strikes on Iran go on?
Washington’s heavy reliance on the Chinese minerals for its advanced weapon systems means China could dictate how long US strikes on Iran can go on, according to sources and analysts.
Sources told the South China Morning Post, on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, that Washington had only around two months of rare earths inventory, and the supplies would dominate talks when Trump sat down with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Beijing also appeared less eager for a deal than Washington, they added.
Trump said last week that he would push ahead with “ferocious, unyielding resolve” against Iran, projecting that US attacks – which began on February 28 – could last four to five weeks. But on Monday, he said the American military’s objectives in Iran had almost been met and that the crisis could end “very soon”.
Marina Zhang, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, said the US’ dependence on China’s rare earths would hand Beijing “significant indirect leverage over the duration and cost of potential conflicts”.
Rare earths – especially heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium – were used for manufacturing high-performance permanent magnets, radar systems, missile guidance components and key propulsion systems in US advanced weapons, Zhang said.
Such a dependency would reshape the US-China strategic balance as it introduced an “asymmetric vulnerability for Washington”, she said, adding that Beijing’s control over rare earths would offer “tangible leverage in negotiations and broader geopolitical competition with Washington”.
In a report this month, the US Geological Survey said China accounted for 71 per cent of US rare earth element imports from 2021 to 2024.
In particular, China was the US’ sole supplier of critical heavy rare earths such as terbium between 2021 and 2024, with no immediate alternative source.
Zhang said the US would face “acute shortages in critical weapon components” if China were to tighten its export restrictions on rare earths, hinting that US forces could meet only “short-term combat needs” with its strategic reserves of these elements.
“This dependency forces the US to either curtail weapons production, accept higher costs from hasty, low-scale alternatives, or deplete limited strategic reserves,” she said.
The Washington Post, citing unnamed US officials, reported that the Pentagon depleted US$5.6 billion worth of munitions during the first two days of its attack on Iran amid concerns over how rapidly American forces were drawing down scarce advanced weapons stockpiles……..
I would agree,
Washington’s heavy reliance on the Chinese minerals for its advanced weapon systems means China could dictate how long US strikes on Iran can go on, according to sources and analysts.
Also:
Beijing also appeared less eager for a deal than Washington, they added.
At the same time, the WSJ is reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-latest-news-2026
Trump Says He Is Seeking to Delay Summit With China’s Xi Due to Iran War
The president also said numerous countries were ‘on the way’ to help fully open the vital Strait of Hormuz, but didn’t say which ones
I am wondering if Trump is feeling that having the Summit soon would be futile. He somehow needs to open the Straight of Hormuz to get some leverage over China, so China will give more materials needed for weapons. How Trump will actually do this, especially with depleting munition supplies, is a big question mark.
Trump is running out of non nuclear weapons. He still can go full on nuclear and use 200 nuclear bombs at 100MT each ending Iran, the people, the cities, the ports, roads, water works.
then the meeting would be called off for sure. also 10 atom bombs would fall on Israel shortly thereafter.
“Somewhere in the bowels of China’s Ministry of Commerce, in the grey bureaucratic machinery of MOFCOM’s export licensing apparatus, there exists a filing system that has received every tungsten export license application submitted by American importers throughout the calendar year 2025. Every single application. Dozens of them. Hundreds, perhaps. From defense contractors scrambling to meet Pentagon specifications. From semiconductor equipment manufacturers racing to maintain wafer production. From industrial toolmakers watching their inventory clocks tick toward zero.
Not one has come back approved. “?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-182671299
“Remember when the narrative was that it was Russia totally reliant on Western-supplied parts in its weaponry? Here an American general literally admits the entire U.S. military structure would collapse in a day if China issued an embargo against them:”?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13551371/China-military-supplies-war.html
From June 2024:
Retired army general’s chilling warning over China’s chokehold on US military: ‘We need to prepare for war’
-Chinese manufacturers dominate supply chains for U.S. armaments industry
-Retired U.S. general John G. Ferrari said Beijing could cripple American military
-It comes amid growing fears of a conflict between the two countries over Taiwan
This is a hidden way of cutting off exports.
High prices for another critical mineral:
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/armor-piercing-ammo-metal-557-china-chokes-supply-war-demand-surges
Tungsten, used in missiles, tank rounds, armor-piercing ammunition, and some smaller-caliber munitions, has surged in price over the last year as China curbed exports and global supplies tightened.
This is a major concern, as multi-front conflicts – from the Middle East to Eastern Europe – are depleting interceptor missile supplies.
Bloomberg cites new data from commodity price reporting agency Fastmarkets showing tungsten prices have surged to $2,250 per metric ton this month, up 557% since Beijing added certain tungsten products to its export control list in February of last year.
I wonder how much this war is meant to cover up geological depletion, shaping a narrative that shortages are always political, not geological. If people see oil depletion as purely a political issue, they’ll mistakenly look for political fixes, without realizing the problem is rooted in nature itself.
based on what I I have read from the small bits of information written by the elders they are aware how much oil was going to be ultimately taken out of the Earth so they know about the limits so everything we are seeing now is them preparing us for the new way of life.I am hoping all will be well.
Bingo!
Brits must brace for energy RATIONING as Middle East chaos causes shortages, ex-No10 expert warns
https://x.com/DailyMail/status/2033522770022125613
So what color EV are you buying Norm?
And who’s next @ OFW?
LOL
that headline was in the daily mail—they have the worst reputation for scaremongering headlines in uk—they will print literally anything to sell papers…
Th Financial Times says ships will be escorted through the straits by the US Navy. It is difficult from here to figure out who prints anything and who does not. They look all the same honestly.
Age of Gaslighting. Let’s do Forbes.
UK should brace for fuel rationing over Iran war crisis, former BP chief warns Starmer
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-oil-prices-fuel-rationing-starmer-iran-war-b2939318.html
Of course, electricity is in short supply, also.
It doesn’t seem like many electric car owners have figured out that there is a shortage of electricity.
Agreed! But rising electricity prices should start giving a clue.
currently I am working full-time 10 days of fortnight which involves driving to work in a fossil fuel powered vehicle 10 days fortnite.this will have to change I am thinking about six days of fortnite an investing in a bicycle.
I posted this at C&E as well. Anyone here have a thought on what is behind the fact that America appears to be settling portions of its trade defecit in gold.
https://metalsandminers.substack.com/p/the-us-has-net-settled-in-gold-its
Q Anon for gold bugs. Author openly admits he/it doesn’t know where the gold is coming from but decides to run with a Q-style narrative anyway. When China goes long on gold, it comes from other places.
You’re falling for the dollar hyperinflation misdirection play. When 99pc of the herd goes one way, go the other way, and and learn about that other way en route. Live a little.
Let’s try Forbes:
Gold became the top U.S. export in October and November 2025, an unprecedented event in at least 20 years, largely driven by record shipments to Switzerland for redistribution to China and other nations. This surge, driven by global financial volatility and a weaker dollar, is considered a “bad” economic indicator, signaling a lack of confidence in U.S. currency.
Forbes
Forbes
+2
Maybe instead of doubling down you could ask some questions. Or do you not know what questions to ask?
“America” and “US” doesn’t mean the US Treasury as your psyoped Q-style thinking would have it. It means the American marketplace. Why would private entities in America be selling gold? Have you seen the price lately? Have you seen the obvious top? Do you remember me saying about a month ago that gold is now for suckers, and the dollar is for the insiders.
Switzerland is the international gold hub of the world. When gold is sold internationally, it goes through Switzerland and is primarily purchased in dollars.
“This surge, driven by global financial volatility and a weaker dollar, is considered a “bad” economic indicator, signaling a lack of confidence in U.S. currency.”
This is also the Hand running interference on the coming dollar deflation. How about applying Occam’s razor instead of a fake dedollarization political narrative: the actual reality being that China is buying gold out of concern for the yuan and private American entities are selling gold for dollars because the prices are sky high and obviously topping and the bottomed dollar from the tariffs will obviously strengthen (and is already) into a financial crisis, as the reserve flight to safety currency.
Which narrative is 2+2=4 Econ101 and which is a Hand-crafted gaslighting of 2+2=5?
That’s the easiest multiple choice quiz you’re ever going to get. Show me you got a pulse.
I didn’t write the article. I posted it because I thought it was interesting. Gail seems to think it is. If you have a problem with the article take it up with the author, there is a comment section.
You can play coy all you want.
Let’s try Forbes.
Indirectly, the extra gold is going to prop up the financial system, so the author is right about this.
This may be a pattern that needs to continue. How it can continue should be of concern. The US can’t keep selling gold after a certain point, whether it is to Switzerland or anyone else. It somehow will need to get the gold the general public has.
It’s fine. Never wrestle with a pig …
No, runaway, you said that the US appears to be settling part of its trade deficit in gold. You said that, not the author.
What I have a problem with is dishonesty but at least the Hand is trying to prevent chaotic collapse with its dishonesty. What’s your excuse?
Assuming sub-scenario some of the singularists ala Musk are co-animated by the Hand – well he mentioned chaos years intermezzo possibility ahead..
So, in this sense overall chaotic collapse endgame is prevented by the process which also does partly include temporary (vent) of chaos along the way..
Absolutely Jr, and the only game in town is to discern the difference between structural chaos and The Venting. Another nice metaphor!
With the headline article at ZH right now, which is behind a paywall but claiming in the subheading that Hormuz is opening up a little, it raises the specter of the Hand needing to feather the Big Nuclear Scare sledgehammer. To much feathering, though, and it will eventually turn out to be just another feathering mechanism altogether, which would confirm Gail’s early impressions which I argued against, and doom the Big Nuclear Scare theory and, imo at this juncture anyway, seriously threaten the whole Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. Fun.
But as it stands, given that Big Nuclear Scare theory has always maintained that the BNS is a very carefully choreographed set-piece, I’m not at all concerned about internal feathering and it doesn’t change my 6-8 week WAG on the BNS duration.
Rante, this seems unlikely in the extreme. Specially considering the economic predicament the US is in, and the desire for gold prevalent in most of the world.
What seems unlikely, that institutional holders of gold would send their brick piggies to Swiss auction when the price is at an all-time high and clearly topping?
Or have you been gaslighted into subliminally thinking that Trump succeeded in raiding Fort Knox six months ago, and us Poirots are all just finding out now?
I will not be thrown off the scent drb.
Possibly. Or I can tell the difference between something that can be printed and something that can not.
If printing wasn’t superior then it wouldn’t be the money of civilization. It takes printing to keep up with all the oil hm?
“Switzerland is the international gold hub of the world. When gold is sold internationally, it goes through Switzerland and is primarily purchased in dollars.”
Are you sure about that?
I wouldn’t have thought so. Maybe in the past, but China having to go through Switzerland if it wants gold, doesn’t seem correct and the dollar bit seems outdated as well.
Got any links?
AI:
“Key Facts on Switzerland’s Gold Dominance:
Top Exporter: Switzerland consistently ranks as the world’s top gold exporter, shipping over
billion worth of gold annually.
Refining Hub: It processes roughly 70% of the world’s gold.
Refining Power: Valcambi in Switzerland is the world’s largest precious metals refinery, processing over
tons annually.
Trading Center: Major gold trades are often handled by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) based in Basel.
Storage: Switzerland is a major global hub for storing gold, favored for its safety and political stability.”
“Yes, the Swiss gold trading market is primarily transacted in US dollars (USD), as gold is a global commodity priced in dollars. However, as the world’s largest refining and transit hub, Swiss gold transactions also involve significant volumes of Swiss francs (CHF).
Reuters
Reuters
+3
Key details regarding Swiss gold trade:
Pricing Currency: Gold is quoted globally, including in Swiss refining and trading operations, in USD.
Trade Volume: Switzerland acts as a major hub, with gold exports reaching billions of dollars in 2025, particularly to the U.S..
Currency Impact: While the base price is in USD, Swiss National Bank data shows significant gold transactions conducted in Swiss francs (CHF), which affects their current account balances.
Recent Developments: In 2025, high-volume exports of gold from Switzerland to the U.S. were severely impacted by new 39% tariffs, which later faced adjustments to 15% following negotiations.”
The latter quote might be providing a key insight into another function of the tariffs.
Dollar going down equals more dollars are being circulated through out the global economy. It means people are borrowing.
If you want to move away from the dollar, then prepare for a devaluation of whatever currency you want to use instead.
The dollar actually formed an inside day on Daily charts against many of its peers today. Meaning people betting big on the Iran situation cooling down. And the dollar resuming its move lower. As getting back to business means lower oil prices and more dollars circulating because the threat of higher oil and gas prices is removed.
Just what the charts are saying in currency or FX markets.
The dollar going down only means people are willing to give less in return for a dollar – by definition. Nothing more.
Much like how SV40 means Monster. Thanks for enlightening us once again.
Only that’s not how currency markets work. Exchange rates are determined by what happens within the Eurodollar market.
Dollars have to circulate. When banks become risk averse. They pullback on making dollars available to circulate. Dollars become harder to obtain. Which means for a borrower you need more collateral or you pay more to borrow. Dollar goes up in value.
Higher oil prices by definition means you need more collateral to borrow money to import oil. Which is why higher oil prices correlate with a stronger dollar. As oil prices ease off the dollar will weaken.
The dollar doesn’t weaken because some people don’t like it. It weakens because dollars become easier to obtain.
Another point is when oil production does roll over. And we have a little less oil each year. Year after year. Dollars will become increasingly harder to obtain year after year.
Welcome HHH. Are you essentially saying that the historically inverse relationship between dollar real value (strength) and barrel price is only becoming a positive correlation because what we are experiencing right now are supply shortages?
Regarding rollover, a number of us here including myself argue that oil production rolled over at the end of 2018 when looking at the fitted curve.
Agree with you that the future is dollar deflation.
The dollar is just a medium of exchange. Not a store of value. But when it takes more dollars that are harder to obtain to pay for imports. It’s naturally going to increase the value of the dollar against all other currencies.
If anyone believes that a commodity super cycle is upon us. Where prices just keep going up. That’s very dollar bullish. At least in terms of exchange rates with other currencies.
Me, I think the price ceiling that causes demand destruction is relatively low. People like to compare inflation adjusted numbers to 2008 oil prices. And say it would take $210 oil to equal 2008 highs.
A single bedroom apartment cost $1400 a month. Average car payment and insurance are way higher than back in 2008. If you’re making anything less than$75,000 a year regardless of where you live in the US you can’t afford the economy by yourself. You have to depend on someone else’s income. Obviously some places require a lot more income.
Median income is about $80,000.
So half the people experience personal demand destruction basically immediately when prices go up because they already can’t afford the economy.
The top 20% of all earners account for 60% of all the consumption.
What really holds up stock valuations is passive retirement inflows. Watch the job market. Unemployment at about 6% will turn those passive inflows into passive outflows.
The top 20% rely on their asset prices to spend 60% of consumption. So the employment rate is big deal. Those passive inflows are a big deal.
I can believe this: “What really holds up stock valuations is passive retirement inflows.”
Also, I can believe that the unemployment rate is a big deal. Quite a few people in the IT world are contractors. They are not counted as unemployed when their contracts end, as far as I know. I believe that the Uber drivers are also contractors. The more contractors there are, the fewer are reported as unemployed, whether or not there is less work for the contractors.
with continuing dedollarization, dollars are certainly easier to obtain from the rest of the world. Saudi and UAE, for example, are looking to get rid of close to 2T now (they have been for a while). Others are looking to get yuans so their tankers can sail through Hormuz. Necessarily dollars will be easier to obtain if China decides not to accept them anymore.
drb,
If the world wants to switch to the yuan. The yuan will devalue by 1000% or more. Supply of yuan would have to increase dramatically. While supply of dollars would decrease dramatically.
You can’t get around that fact. Dollar up yuan down. Dollars would become very scarce and expensive to obtain.
I agree that the Yuan cannot be the global reserve currency for the reason you say. But several countries could perhaps obtain enough Yuan to buy oil. China would be able to sell more debt, but not such a huge amount.
I go with what my middle eastern contacts tell me. they want a basket of currencies, and precious metals. besides, what can you buy with dollars? soybeans?
HHH,
Would have appreciated a direct response to my direct question to you above. That said it’s water under the bridge.
From your response to drb:
“If the world wants to switch to the yuan. The yuan will devalue by 1000% or more. Supply of yuan would have to increase dramatically. While supply of dollars would decrease dramatically.
You can’t get around that fact. Dollar up yuan down. Dollars would become very scarce and expensive to obtain.”
On the yuan dynamics, you are discounting the goods and services side of the equation. Money supply does not dictate currency valuation. Valuation is based on supply relative to available goods and services. If yuan became the reserve in this thought experiment, then yes, yuan money supply will explode but, as the new global reserve it will be exploding in order to chase a world of goods it was not chasing before, so, in a perfect world , the thought experiment could yield a result that the yuan valuation relative to goods and services might never change at all because the yuan is currently pegged to the dollar and so by switching places with the dollar it would take on the dollar value as new reserve.
To your argument about the relegated dollar becoming scarce and high value, you are again discounting one side of the supply and demand interplay. Relegating the dollar crashes demand for the dollar, and that is not structurally conducive to dollar strength.
Good to see you here HHH .
This looks like it could be important. It looks like the US is trying to hold down the goods trade deficit by paying down part of it (probably to China) in physical gold. The article says that a WSJ article made the point:
“For the third time in the last four months, the single biggest export of the United States of America by value, was not soybeans, not aircraft, and not software; it was gold.”
The author says:
This is not normal. In fact, it is so far outside the bounds of normal that it requires a complete re-evaluation of the role gold is playing in the global financial system. The United States is, for the first time in a generation, net settling a portion of its trade deficit in physical gold.
The author, who is interested in gold as an investment, concludes that gold’s price will go up. In my view, if the US government is using gold to hold down its trade deficits, it will do anything it can do to obtain gold inexpensively. It will confiscate all the gold it can get its hands on, perhaps paying a low price for it. Somehow, it will not let gold be used in trade in the US.
Exactamundo, cue yours concluding paragraph..
This has been debated over several sites in ~2008 and other similar venues. Basically, the idea is about at least [ two-tier market ], where the true value of metals vs synthetic money / treasuries, govs debt is thus kept separate. Hence, the bigger transactions are always subject to closed cartel as it where. Whereas poor schmucks in retail are confined to theirs and ID checked mostly anyway, should they cross some threshold. It has been corroborated even by hints from various ~insiders over the years.
Obviously, it can’t be super tight 24/365/every decade – so occasionally the holes in the sys are visible. Most recently as few weeks ago [HU] commando busted on highway Ukro banker convoy en route from Vienna home, it contained cubic meters of cash and kgs of metal. The Ukro narrative then was they solely need it for their own inter-banking settlement purposes, which is ridiculous.
Besides [HU] mentioned on purpose these shipments go on regularly to the tune of tons per year.
So, in practice, CBs say here ECB prints tranche of $10B for Ukro purposes, wires that to a bank in Vienna. That bank is instructed to subtract “real” value of the metal from said loan, so that’s at the minimum around ~15-30x the retail rate.
Everybody in this little sub-stream was happy until now, when Orban seized it all, hah.
PS metal is a side / back stop show for kiddies, the real moneyz are always made chiefly on wars, tech IPOs, taxing-govscheming peons, etc.
what is C&E?
https://climateandeconomy.com/
The Quark-related blog I think.
The author of the no01 substack has something to say about this subject, too. This is from March 6.
https://no01.substack.com/p/the-bretton-whoops
The petrodollar was a simple deal. The Gulf states price their oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and in exchange get American military protection. Clean, elegant, and – for fifty years – it actually worked. The US got permanent demand for its currency and its debt. The Gulf got security guarantees backed by the most powerful military on earth.
Five decades of procurement scandals and DEI hires later, someone called the bluff.
US bases across the Gulf – Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE – were always sold as the physical expression of the guarantee. The muscle that backed the paper. They were protection. Except now those bases are targets. The countries hosting them are getting hit precisely because they host them. What once was “US military presence as shield” has collapsed and became “US military presence as a bullseye”. . .
This is the engine that kept the whole fiat USD thing running: Gulf sells oil → receives dollars → buys Treasuries → US borrowing costs stay manageable → repeat. For decades. And what keeps that loop turning isn’t economics. It’s trust. The belief that Washington is a reliable partner, that dollar-denominated assets are safe, and that the security umbrella is real.
The petrodollar recycling loop was one of the structural forces keeping Treasury auctions clearing. When Gulf sovereigns stop buying – or start selling – somebody else has to absorb that supply. At higher rates. Which makes the interest burden worse. Which makes the deficit worse. Which requires more issuance. The spiral is not complicated.
And underneath all of this sits a deeper shift that doesn’t get enough attention. The world is migrating from a currency-based monetary order to a collateral-based one. For decades, Treasuries were the global safe asset – the thing you held when you didn’t know what else to hold. That status is eroding. What’s replacing it, are commodities. Physical stuff™. Things you can actually use. Which is – not coincidentally – exactly what the GCC is sitting on, and exactly what the US has just demonstrated it cannot protect.
Gold and silver hit record after record last year for the same reason. Not inflation. Not rate expectations. Something older and simpler: people are looking for a store of value that doesn’t require trusting a government that has made itself unpredictable.
That’s why I’m on the commodities’ boat. They’re a collateral, they store value, you can even say that they *are* value. That was always the logic behind the Dollar – it was backed by gold (a commodity) and then it became backed by fossil fuels (another commodity). You just have to pinpoint which commodity is the best for you, and which one the government won’t try to bring down.
But no one is asking this questio, does anybody know it?
Who are the ones wanting Gold instead of Dollars?
China? Europe? Russia? India? Israel?
The answer to that may clarify many things, and is the precursor for another question: is this the event that will kill the Dollar?
Commodities schlomodities..
The #1 rule of all government structures is to sustaining themselves above all other concerns, irrespective of blow-backs, outliers, and so on.
Yes, there have been historical “slower” periods of varied length when this mode ruled supreme, but even at that it was scaled to specific-limited regional settings.
As long as fossil energy resource (or other) continue to provide their huge ~50-150 : 1 surplus the inner speed of any such societies will be expediently-fast. And from that follows any setting to be temporary, fluid, prone to rapid change. In other words all econ strategies not aligned with the dominant short narrative of the day are essentially useless. So, it’s a contradictory situation, a paradox. By definition it’s more secure inside the den of scammers, so will you join them with the fruit of your life-work in open palm of your hand?
The backlash against tourism is escalating into open violence in Europe. Locals are vandalizing rental cars
DeepL Translate:
“An incident in the southern resort of Costa Adeje on Tenerife, where masked vandals vandalized and set fire to two dozen rental cars, marks the most serious escalation of tensions to date, according to The Sun. The perpetrators not only planned their act but also cynically documented it on video, which they later set to dramatic music and shared on social media as a form of warning, writes the Daily Mail.
This act of violence sparked a wave of panic among thousands of vacationers who were on the islands at the time or planning to travel there for the upcoming Easter holiday.
Police are currently investigating the attackers’ links to radical environmental groups that have long criticized the current model of tourism. The main argument of these movements is not hatred of foreigners per se, but deep frustration with the economic situation, explains the Mirror.”
https://cestovanie.pravda.sk/more/clanok/791451-boj-proti-turizmu-prerasta-europa-nasilie-protesty-demoluju-auta-z-pozicovni-kanarske-ostrovy-tenerife/
Good. Locals only. GTFO.
unfortunately —tourist money pays for local services…
what should be curtailed is expats buying houses–that would solve most of the problems
Tourist money buys a fake waste-based economy that values strangers more than one another. Culture drain.
we are all locked into a waste based economy i’m afraid
True but to echo Alan Watts’famous reflection on some things being more natural than others, some waste-based economies are more waste-based than others, with the tourist industry being egregiously-so.
i absolutely agree reante…
going somewhere just to say youve been is a fatuous pursuit—-i’m mildly guilty, but nowhere near some folks i know.
For now Americans are trying to soak up all the travel they can it is becoming a sick flex and filling their empty lives with something. They think it is not materialism…so many want to move to Spain etc… but have no idea of what the locals are going through
Young people have traded a glass of wine for cell phones and soft drugs. Will Slovakia’s vineyards survive the drastic pruning?
“Europeans are giving up wine, and winegrowers are taking up axes to clear their vineyards. The European Commission is encouraging this move; cellars are full of wine, and supply and demand must be brought into balance. The younger generation of adults is drinking less wine, as well as less beer and other beverages. Following the trend of non-alcoholic beer, wine with the same designation is now being produced. Soft drugs are becoming the source of intoxication for young people.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://zurnal.pravda.sk/rozhovory/clanok/790915-mladi-vymenili-pohar-vina-za-mobily-a-lahke-drogy-preziju-slovenske-vinice-drasticke-klcovanie/
They are preparing for the kvass invasion. it’s a lot healthier.
Old slavic beverage:
https://sl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kvas_(pija%C4%8Da)
If anything, their new/old Polish Masters are well familiar with it.
If water is no longer safe to drink, we will again need to figure out a way to make beverages safe. Alcoholic content was one approach that was used in the past. Boiling water was another approach. Chlorination of water is another approach.
Cutting down vineyards may not be the right thing to do, if energy supplies are on the way down.
Looking to fit my poly irrigation hose, I spoke with a fellow at the local hardware store in the rural town where we have land. I told him I’m growing oaks and chestnuts and grafting onto wild apples.. he introduces himself as a member of one of the original pioneer families in the valley. This fellow says that an older lady over the border in NY State has an overgrown apple orchard. He and his Sister are trying to find a way to clean it up and share the harvest.
With the ageing populations, there is a great demand for pruning and mowing work. Otherwise the wilderness returns.
Pruning is a kind of art: every tree is different, it takes time to learn it. There is a lot of courses on pruning trees in Slovak and Czech languages on youtube that provide various detailed approaches. Every tree variety has its peculiarities. Tree culutivations has got a tradition in our family.
Here is the list of the most reputable channels:
https://www.youtube.com/@janurbanek_pestitel
https://www.youtube.com/@boturcz
https://www.youtube.com/@hodinovysadar
https://www.youtube.com/@sadarvalouch750
https://www.youtube.com/@rodinnysadar
https://www.youtube.com/@ZAHRADAUKORENA
https://www.youtube.com/@vladojencik
Do you have personal experience with nuts be it bushes or trees? Usually people use those various proven french chestnut sorts and then use local root stock for the given climate, soil, .. at home.
Accidentally, last autumn found just at very decrepit parking lot near a city outskirts self seeded specimen of walnut, very abused looked more like a 4m bush and the fruit-nut was excellent though – unfortunately it was very late date at that time, so other fallen nuts were either picked up already or cleaned by the sweep service so could not evaluate the overall production health status then, even used google map cam, but showed only few green husk-nuts too early in the season, hah! So later this season another attempt “if they” don’t kill it..
So far I’ve had excellent results in similar scenarios (accidentally looking out) as city conditions tend to somehow promote crazy specialization-gene manipulation of various sorts, I’ve found very productive apples and various others with very unusual flavor..
These are mostly “lost” varieties from 19th century as old gardens were turned into cities, and ~birds self seeded them around ravines and parks for next 2-3x generations.
Also, there was a polish guy few yrs ago supplying those rare NAmerican edible oaks in bush form, but he ran into some problems, not available now.
Just found the likely massive parent walnut only <1km air distance up on the nearby hill. Well it could be from anywhere.. but looks promising the habitus also tall-lean being similar (uncommon), people even eating these nuts on drive-by "street view" as captured in fall mid 2010s lolz.. happiness – silliness in digital age!
Aerating water makes it potable again because basically all the microbes that people fear are anaerobes, and they die or go dormant when the water is aerated.
The best option (alc wine only for cooking) is to work the grape wines into multivit juice or better still into slightly carbonated bottled grape lemonade. But today’s young are beyond brain-less to appreciate it fully (rather intoxicating for the win!), hence few / none are made around world these days..
Cheap city apartments, nearly a billion in debt. The Vienna housing model is collapsing; it cannot serve as a model for us
https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/krajina/clanok/789515-lacne-mestske-byty-takmer-miliardovy-dlh-viedensky-model-byvania-kolabuje-nemoze-byt-pre-nas-vzorom/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=box-sidebar-links&utm_campaign=mostread
Another version of subsidized apartments. An excerpt:
Cheap rent only for the chosen ones
Viennese people, like Bratislava residents, are forced to seek private subletting. The capital of the neighbors has already seen an increase in rental property prices – by a third in the last ten years. Municipal rental apartments do not ensure general availability of apartments for everyone, but on the contrary, they form a class of “chosen ones”, i.e. they provide housing mainly to long-term residents of Vienna.
The situation is also complicated by the fact that the tenant has the right to an apartment for much longer than in our country. The Slovak Agency for State-Supported Rental Housing (AŠPNB) guarantees 25–30 years, in Vienna it is 99+. If you can no longer live in the apartment, for example due to its condition, the city must find you a similar one – in terms of distance, rent price, or total value.
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-15-ides-of-hormuz
Excerpts:
Goldman put the Hormuz numbers on paper. Flows collapsed from 19.5 million barrels per day to 0.5 million. Nearly all of that trickle is Chinese tankers, which have been sailing through since day one. Everyone else is at anchor.
Jeff Currie – two decades on Goldman’s commodity desk, now at Carlyle – put the recovery timeline at 200 days. From a ceasefire that doesn’t exist.
Also:
If China and India formalise their passage arrangements, roughly 7 million barrels per day could be restored – about 39% of what’s offline. The Strait isn’t closed. It’s a yuan-denominated toll booth, and Iran is building the replacement maritime order one bilateral deal at a time.
India according to Ravi, and i agree, is a long way from arranging passage. Perhaps Pakistan.
Pakistan has proven itself a friend and friends are treated correctly.
https://x.com/ALERTX360/status/2033552814924849383
Reports of at least 2 oil tankers as well and one of the conditions is claimed to be no dollars allowed for payment, but there’s so much fog around that I don’t even know if vessel tracker is telling me anything real.
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/attacks-ais-shutdowns-spoofing-and-jamming-leading-to-electronic-fog-in-middle-east-gulf/2-1-1959656
Amusing to see how the Iranians now refer to the US
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/irgc-orders–defeated–us-to-evacuate-industrial-facilities
Last one on your list is about Iran planning to target areas in Israel. It says:
IRGC orders ‘defeated’ US to evacuate industrial facilities in region
The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a warning to the “defeated US regime,” demanding the evacuation of all American industrial facilities in the region.
The IRGC also called on residents living near US-linked factories to leave the area for their safety, emphasizing that these industrial sites are expected to come under attack in the coming hours.
IRGC’s 56th wave targets strategic Israeli stockpiles, Al-Udeid base
The first link says
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi publicly thanked Pakistan for its support against U.S. and Israeli aggression. Earlier today, the Pakistani Aframax tanker Karachi transited the Strait of Hormuz with AIS broadcasting openly along the Iranian side of the strait.
Another quote:
Hassett confirmed $12 billion spent on the war. The FT reported US oil companies earning an extra $63 billion this year from it. Five billion dollars this month alone. Twelve billion to fight it. Sixty-three billion to profit from it. Someone in that equation is having fun.
Tweet by Senior Iranian Official, Ali Larijani:
I’ve heard that the remaining members of Epstein’s network have devised a conspiracy to create an incident similar to 9/11 and blame Iran for it. Iran fundamentally opposes such terrorist schemes and has no war with the American people.
Zerohedge update:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/allies-balk-trump-pushes-joint-military-action-reopen-hormuz-iran-says-no-ceasefire-table
Allies Balk As Trump Pushes Joint Military Action To Reopen Hormuz – Iran Says No Ceasefire On Table
Europe reluctant to join Hormuz operation, Germany outright rejects it alongside Italy and Greece: Trump warned of a “very bad” future for NATO if allies don’t help reopen the strait. UK also says it won’t be ‘NATO-led’. . .
President Trump and his top officials spent the weekend on the one hand touting the Iran campaign a decisive military win and supposed success, while on the other racing to assemble a naval coalition to force open Tehran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, all the while imploring other countries for help. Europe appears deeply reluctant, with some key NATO countries already slamming the door on this prospect.
Later, a video shows Trump saying, “Whether we get support or not, but I can say this — and I said it to them — we will remember.”
This is apparently what’s behind Trump’s growing urgency – and some might day desperation – for allies to step up, with the US president having told European leaders there could be a “very bad” future for NATO if member states fail to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Financial Times. . .
For example, after Italy had earlier made very clear it will have no involvement, Al Jazeera reports:
The war in Iran has nothing to do with NATO, a German government spokesperson says, adding that Germany would not take part in the war nor in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open through military means.
“As long as this war continues, there will be no participation, not even in any effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military means,” the spokesperson said. Greece also will not engage in any military operations in the Strait of Hormuz, Greek government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis said.
And Britain too while signaling openness says it won’t be NATO-led:
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday Britain would not be drawn into a wider war in Iran but would work with allies on a “viable collective plan” to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz, though he acknowledged that would not be a simple task.
He (or they) will remember what? they should start by remembering what they said last week, and try to be coherent. I know, I am asking for too much.
“Due to the natural gas shortage led by disruption of natural gas supply in the Middle East, Hindalco Industries has currently ceased production of aluminum extrusion, a high-value-added aluminium product, according to insiders. “https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1509339/3
https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-news/NOW.1509339/3
This is only a tiny share of world aluminum output, but it is a symptom of what is happening.
Amidst ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), which operates the world’s largest single aluminium smelter, has announced a phased production shutdown to conserve raw material inventory and maintain operations in other parts of the plant, according to comprehensive reports.
It is reported that Alba has initiated the shutdown of three production lines, which together account for 19% of its annual total output of 1.6 million tonnes, approx. 2.2% of global aluminium output.
All flights to and from Dubai have been temporarily suspended. -Emirates
https://x.com/EmiratesSupport/status/2033356098556805485
Reuters is saying:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airlines-cancel-flights-after-us-israel-strikes-iran-2026-03-16/
Global air travel remains severely disrupted after the war in Iran forced the closure of key Middle Eastern hubs including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, stranding tens of thousands of passengers.
It then lists a long list of temporary interruptions, with the date that these interruptions are now scheduled to expire.
This article says:
https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1499355/dubai-airport-flights-disrupted-after-nearby-drone-fire.html
Earlier on Monday, Dubai Airports said flights were gradually resuming at what is usually the world’s busiest for international flights, after a “drone-related incident” sparked a fuel tank fire nearby. . .
The UAE airline Emirates said it expected to operate a “limited schedule” after 10:00 a.m. Dubai time and that some flights had been cancelled.
Fuel rationing in Australia if war continues to trim global oil supplies, experts say
“Experts say we should prepare for the possibility the war in the Middle East will force Australia to start rationing fuel. Motorists are being asked to stop panic-buying because it is making the problem worse.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-16/fuel-rationing-on-the-horizon-in-australia-if-iran-war-continues/106452562
2 weeks to flatten Iran.
Or whatever it takes…Donald J(erk) Trump
But We’re doing fantastic, way ahead schedule
Chevron and Shell Suddenly Find Venezuela “Appealing”.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/chevron-shell-make-stunning-venezuela-move-as-iran-crisis-deepens
Higher prices definitely make Venezuelan oil more appealing.
Appealing , yes . Economical , No . Oil extraction is a long term project . 10 -15 year horizon is needed . I will see when they make a FID ( First Investment Decision ) in the meanwhile file 13 .
P.S: File 13 in a lawyers office is the waste paper basket .
Good point these stories make headlines but not reality
I see that urea B is offered at 380 dollars a ton. Real price. Before the war (I checked around Feb. 20) it was 250. The war just started.
High price and inadequate supply are both issues.
Big loss at Stellantis
A too-big bet on battery electric vehicles (BEVs): Stellantis overestimated demand for battery-electric technology and that strategic mistake (together with quality/warranty problems) is presented as the main reason for the loss.
According to the article in HNonline.sk, Stellantis reported an unprecedented annual loss of more than €22 billion. Management itself says the core cause was a badly chosen electrification strategy — the company overcommitted to battery-electric vehicles and sales did not meet those expectations. The group also faced quality issues and elevated warranty/reclamation costs, which amplified the financial hit. The result has real local impact: production sites and suppliers connected to the Slovak operations (including the plant at Trnava) feel the effects, and unions warn that extra bonuses won’t be paid. In an internal message quoted by the paper, CEO Antonio Filosa acknowledged the company “overestimated the pace” of adopting this single technology.
https://hnonline.sk/finweb/ekonomika/96270570-obrovska-strata-stellantisu-dobehla-fabriku-v-trnave-vyrabali-sme-nonstop-odmeny-neuvidime-tvrdia-odbory
https://www.drive.com.au/news/stellantis-posted-a-37-billion-loss-for-2025-on-the-back-of-ev-backflips/
Repeating myself . First in line for bankruptcy in the automotive industry — Stellantis , second — Nissan or vice versa .
What about Honda?
Honda is projecting a record ¥690 billion ($15.7 billion) loss for the 2026 fiscal year, marking its first potential annual loss in decades, due to massive restructuring costs from canceling three key North American electric vehicle (EV) models. This shift is driven by slowing U.S. demand, increased Chinese competition, and a strategic refocus toward hybrid vehicles.
CNBC
CNBC
+4
Key Details of Honda’s Financial Shift:
Massive Write-Down: The losses are largely due to charges from abandoning the “0 Series” EV lineup in North America, which included the Honda 0 SUV, 0 Saloon, and an Acura EV.
Strategic Pivot: Due to weaker EV demand and shrinking margins, Honda is abandoning these plans to prioritize its hybrid lineup.
Market Pressure: Increasing competition, particularly from Chinese EV brands, and reduced government incentives have made the previous EV roadmap unsustainable.
Exec Pay Cuts: As part of the restructuring, executives, including the CEO, are taking voluntary pay cuts to address the financial downturn.
WardsAuto
WardsAuto
+4
The company intends to return to profitability by focusing on immediate, profitable segments (hybrids) while restructuring its long-term electrification strategy.
The Truth About Cars
And Thats the Truth…pluubbb..
Mike , the Honda loss is a one time event . They have learnt from this and are now going back to the core business of ICE vehicles . They are better positioned until they make another poor decision . Not all decisions are taken by companies — some are mposed on them by politicians — example Europe — Net Zero mandate by EU forced them to shift production from ICE to EV . Loss making .
George Galloway at his entertaining best in this monologue. He asks if Bibi and his cadre are dead or alive? How is it that Bibi Netanyahu grew an extra finger for a total of 6 digits on his hand?
How is it that Bibi can drink from a cup of latte and the level of the latte hasn’t moved, spilled nor is any of it on his lip? How is it that Bibi is at this Jerusalem cafe looking remarkably thinner in just 5 days when it was previously closed from Iranian bombings?
FE would scream….fake..fake..fake
Dubai oil price is trading far above the paper Brent price. The difference is about $38 per barrel. As told by Kevin Walmsley.
Baloney, Kevin. Dated Brent, which is the spot price for physical crude, is basically the same as Brent (front-month paper futures). Dubai is just more expensive because there’s a shortage of it in Asia.
do you expect a shortage not to develop in Europe?
There is a changing mood in EUR capitals already, e.g. the Belgium PM seems ready to capitulate, i.e. ~”now abandoned by US the only option left we have to make deal with RU”..
That’s however currently blocked by crazies (globo holdouts) in FR-DE.
Full scale return to pre-war volumes of energy traded-delivered is NOT on table anymore. So, even optimistic scenario of reopening the spigots will be curbed-limited to some extent, hence EUR (as cohesive econ and defense block) is busted mid-long term.
Perhaps at some future stage with different political class Germany could be again re-connected to energy more fully, but that is very distant and the conditions would be harsh from today’s viewpoint (i.e. likely demanded neutrality no foreign bases anymore), limited defense industry etc.
it is normal that the Eu would break into two pieces.
Is that a rhetorical question?
Here in New York state the nuclear power plant called Indian Point, on the Hudson about 50 mile north of NYC was to be demolished but now the politicians say “NO, NO, wait we need to rebuild it!” I am proud to say I went to the state public service commission meetings to support building six new nukes of 1GW each on the Indian Point property. Blackrock in Manhattan needs electric to power their computers to r ape the planet.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/video/on-air/as-seen-on/reopen-the-indian-point-nuclear-plant-new-support-for-idea-faces-stiff-opposition/6473409/
Of course, upgraded uranium will be needed to operate Indian Point. I don’t think that we will be able to obtain either the uranium or the ability to upgrade it.
Steam turbines needed in power plants have been on back-order for 3+ yrs for some time already. I guess that’s not part of the proposed plan in that article.
Singularists such as Musk are considering to solve the bottle-neck for now by producing the delicate vanes in-house themselves. Before their core project lifting 200GW capacity y/y takes place in 5+ horizon. According to them earthbound energy power production even should it be including fusion is no longer cost effective or scalable, hence non desirable investing-wise.
That’s what they say, put effort & $T-money in.. I’m not claiming it will eventually happen.
But the general claims so far..
Longer range EVs never happen (false)
Reusable – quick refueling low earth orbit cargo rocketry never happen ( false)
Sat mesh-network connected via lasers never happen (false)
Now AI
..
.
Muskianic industries now employ <100k directly and ~2M in sub contractors, but if needed to enlarge that envelope as they have kids in school, keep trash out, firefighters in the hood etc. – it surely must be much more broader support base than that.
—
So, there should be an explanation for the above mega-trend:
The basic one, well he just got lucky in timing (tech ready) and he just surfs on the oil economy fundamentals anyway.
This will all just disintegrate coming resource/PO crash.
(Also means the singularists are just yet another ~techno utopian branch out of many throughout mankind history during over-all carbon pulse so merely temporary phenomenon)
The nudged/hand hypothesis – it happened because that's a ~desired path for the species, universe etc.
Himself notes on this topic that it is indeed quite strange (the tech scaling success path so far) and likely the second option of ~guided hand is at work.
Cheap oil is what matters most to Hungary, and Putin is not our enemy,” Orbán supporters said in Budapest at the March for Peace.
https://www.sme.sk/svet/c/kto-vytvori-vladu-ja-ci-zelenskyj-pytal-sa-orban-budapest-zazila-bitku-o-vacsi-dav
The brain dead pop at large is tired of his long term rule and wants to belong without “political conflicts” to the mythical “proper western realm” ala Germany, France etc. no matter what – including way quicker deeper impoverishment pursuing such goal.
Orban’s so called corruption is of that sort where numerous members of his extended family-clan occupy various jobs in diverse sectors of the economy, also in part hooked to govs coffers. The distinction being they do employ people and move the economy somewhat into betterment vector vs other types of potentate corruption-plain looting schemes out there, incl. Ursula’s and that gang..
Children left class in tears: Teacher showed them videos about the end of the world. School management intervened
The incident occurred at a school in Ružinov, Bratislava.
“The children returned from school scared and crying. The teacher showed them videos about the end of the world, which came from the famous Allatra movement. She was immediately fired.
For schoolchildren in Ružinov, Bratislava, it started as a regular Monday. After school, the children went to after-school care, and there everything changed.”
https://spravy.stvr.sk/2026/03/deti-z-vyucovania-odchadzali-v-slzach-vychovavatelka-im-ukazala-video-o-konci-sveta-vedenie-skoly-zasiahlo/
Didn’t say how old the kids were.
Any age seems to get upset by the idea that the future will not be as good as the recent past.
Lol. If they were at least 14 it’s fair game imo if it’s purely rational systems theory but that Allatra deal clearly isn’t.
It looks like all those pro-Russian cultists find an asylum in what is now called “Slovakia”:
https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/AllatRa
Wonder if MG is also one of them?
Nah MG is rational.
google says
Voluntary Pressure: Former members have described the donations as voluntary, but noted that there was pressure to contribute, often with messaging that “the best investment is in the Creative Society”.
Controversy and Investigations: In 2023–2025, Russian authorities initiated criminal cases alleging that volunteers were collecting donations to fund what they deemed an “undesirable” or “extremist” organization.
Pro-Russian Accusations: Some analytical sources have linked the group’s activities to Russian propaganda.
MG welcome to foreign paid for demoralization of your society.
https://stevenhassan.substack.com/p/allatra-a-russian-cult-is-now-lobbying
AllatRa: A Russian Cult Is Now Lobbying Washington, the EU, and the United Nations and Engaging in Mass Disinformation
Apparently pro-Russian cultist grandma (she-goddes) cannot stop, she’s one of the founders of this newer AllatRa cult, it seems:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marina_Tsvigun
I remember her (and her male-god partner Krivonogov) from early 1990s back in Ukraine. Lots of young (mostly Russian-speaking, from Central and Eastern Ukraine) gullible people joined their “White Brotherhood” (WB) cult. Ukrainian secret police put an end to the WB cult back in November of 1993 (when the cultists tried to forecefully occupy St. Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Brotherhood_(religious_group)#Rapture_of_the_Cathedral_of_St._Sophia_of_Kyiv
Dangerous, superficially New-Ageish, Russian-speaking people from former Eastern Ukraine (DonBass, LuGanDon, you name it…), as I remember.
The large scale agriculture in Brazilian Cerrado is not sustainable
We’re building a GIANT nature corridor
https://youtu.be/uAlF-luupco?si=MZUVJtrV_HnkfwFE
Nature provides plants and animals that can grow together in a particular place. This process takes time, however.
When humans try to intervene, they invariably get the mixture wrong. It quickly degrades. It doesn’t work as planned. I am afraid that is where this plan is headed also.
Robot / AI learning updates:
Elastic coupling of two legged robot to human back/torso brings 20kg load capability at -35% energy savings for the body, and creates useful humanoid hybrid ala ancient ClubMed centaur creature.
In other news vids, Chinese robots of various design (competition) now running half marathons 20km (on road asphalt).
ive submitted your name as a volunteer jr
All kinds of ideas. I hope the person in front doesn’t trip and fall down.
? The content of the research in the video is exactly that about autonomous self – stabilization of both aka the new single entity.. Not long clip inside, few minutes or that linked paper as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1iEbCp_a9Q
The economy has not changed since 1922.
The treatment of Palestine has not changed since 1944
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckAPV1-4VDs
Bringing it back around to AGI. Ben Goertzel the humanist approach to AGI.
Ben talks energy wars.
“Don’t need to fight nasty wars over energy as AI comes to dominate the economy.” I am not sure about this.
as ive tried to point out—-
a farmer friend has a £1m tractor, which runs around his fields doing its thing all day on AI….
but only if he puts diesel in it
To refine the nomenclature the signifier (a.i.) can be authentically stated as (I.E.P. – Intelligenosus Electronicalis Petroleoblum).
this is the correct video
Sad situation!
I remember what Matthew Simmons was saying in his book Twilight in the desert,he basically said that oil prices were too cheap,prices should be in the order of a thousand dollars a barrel to reflect the true important role that oil has in our society. the powers that be know this and have been diligently working at bringing all the world’s leaders into the same mode of thinking. That way events can be shaped any which way to make sure oil prices stay high. what I think we are seeingare countries leaders working together to affect the oil prices.
The wealth of civilization is a thin veneer. The MPP dictates the low price of oil and the thin veneer.
Yes, as Reante or someone key from Surplus said recently, we are sort of riding a soft cushy-spongy cloud of the petrodollar arrangement – at the point it brakes down most of the int. commerce (not done on barter) halts and ruptures in terms of the delicate pre-existing web of sub contractors etc. Yes, there will be likely immediate attempts for stand-ins by various CBDCs but not guaranteed to handle it all..
So, it will be just a signal going ~medieval..
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-14-agent-orange
One interesting observation:
The stated casus belli was nuclear weapons.
Putin and Trump got on the phone this week. Putin offered exactly that: to relocate Iran’s remaining 450 kilograms of enriched uranium to Russia. End the justification for the war. Stop it.
Trump said no.
The solution was hand-delivered. Gift-wrapped, practically. With a bow. He sent it back.
Everyone paying attention knew that this was never about the uranium. Now it’s on the record.
Another comment:
“The US spent months bullying India into ending Russian oil imports. After two weeks of war, the White House is now begging the world – including India – to buy Russian crude”
Another comment:
Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliament Speaker: “American bases in our region do not protect anyone. They are a threat. America sacrifices everyone for Israel”.
About the Houti’s in Yemen:
Mohammed al-Bukhaiti announced that Yemen “has decided to stand militarily with Iran” and will declare “Zero Hour” at an appropriate time.
If Bab el-Mandeb closes alongside Hormuz, both maritime chokepoints shut simultaneously. Twenty per cent of global oil through one, seven per cent of all seaborne trade through the other. Iran controls the eastern door. Yemen controls the southern one. The same people hold both keys.
Also:
Netanyahu still hasn’t appeared. . .
A Hebrew-language post with over 5 million views stated Friday that he “has left his position permanently”. His son Yair, who posts obsessively – 113,000 tweets, something every single day – has been silent for five days.
Also,
The markets are doing market things, but one genuinely interesting point is the physical crude in Dubai: $138 a barrel. WTI on your screen: $100. I’ve seen this movie before. So have you, if you’ve been following silver.
I do hope that Putin was trying to get some diplomatic points for cheap but I am not sure. The moment Iran gives up those 400kg they are going to get nuked. The Russian elites’ wallet is firmly behind the North South Transport corridor, but their hearts is with their tribe. I do expect Russia to produce another Syria one way or another.
I thought this video was helpful. Robert Pape divides the conflict into three stages. In the third stage, he sees a possibility of the conflict being directed back against the US.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcoVkNb0IVU
White House war advisor Robert Pape reveals why Iran is winning the escalation war against America despite having a fraction of the military power. In a piece published in Foreign Affairs just hours before this conversation, he explains how Iran has shifted from direct missile strikes against Israel to a strategy of horizontal escalation, using precision drones to hit hotels, airports, and economic targets across Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar in order to break the US-led coalition from the inside.
He breaks down why this strategy is working, with hundreds of thousands of Western expats evacuating the Gulf, tourism revenues collapsing across the region, and coalition governments facing pressure from their own populations to kick American forces out. He reveals that Russia is now providing targeting intelligence to Iran, the same way America provides targeting intelligence to Ukraine, and explains why Trump was on the phone with Putin just before his press conference trying to negotiate a deal.
Yes, I linked his substack few pages back already..
Disturbing — is the US looking for a fall?
yes. if the economy is going to crater, why not say it’s because of the war? they spend a lot of time and energy maintaining narratives.
i said—-months ago— (long before the current mess)
that to save his ass donnie would create an emergency—
and there ya go—-that crystal ball i got off ebay never lets me down.
and what we are faced with now. is one lot of godnuts trying to kill another lot of godnuts—certain that god is on their side. (isnt he always???)
incentivised by oil-billionaires who want to see the price of oil go on rising.
ie—to go on monetizing the planet itself.
normal operating procedure. Like they did not pretend to slam airplanes onto towers when they needed to go to war, or force people to vaxx and kill 17M worldwide.
Norm, I know you read tabloids and are all tizzy about personalities (you are lucky to have Starmer as PM..) but read my lips: this is created by the impending shale peak, not by the orange puppet.
Looks like Ben Gurion Airport is out of commission for many months.
https://www.flightradar24.com/ELY484/3ebeb925
Apparently the terminals, control tower, 70 or so aircraft gone. The runways are going to need to be reworked, which will require months for cement to set properly.
What a mess. Two more weeks of this kind of thing, and we are probably in for a 1930s style slump.
Ben Gurion Airport is the major international airport for Israel. I couldn’t tell from your link that the terminals, control tower, and 70 or so aircraft are gone, but I wasn’t signed in.
How did you figure this out?
I see flights in and out scheduled. It doesn’t look like there is a big problem.
This AI video makes the same claims you are making, but I would like additional evidence before I believe it.
China just halted all refined fuel exports to Australia, by the way. Which means Australia’s airlines are mostly going to be GROUNDED in about 2 weeks or so.
14 days and counting . https://x.com/SprinterPress/status/2032826340395667610?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2032826340395667610%7Ctwgr%5E9ce3d04f52eb5b854218cb8ab7a64da16e5c36af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.godlikeproductions.com%2Fforum1%2Fmessage6147515%2Fpg1
Looks like FE may live out his own challenge.
“A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it.”
– Jean de la Fontaine
Long ago I read a tale about a Westerner joining an “walkabout” group of aboriginal tribesmen. Riveting exploits of these how they are about to survive in the desert outback.
Fast Eddy is lucky to have relocated there and will be about to get on hands real life experience with them.
someone seems to refute these numbers: https://x.com/BT_Datagram/status/2032864978848592274?s=20
One just does not know what is real (Isreal?) or fake?
Have they found Mileikowsky?
Just noticed video I mentioned before
https://youtube.com/shorts/ZyIqAMo_nHQ?si=kDvBXGy6OJcY7qH5
Al Jazeera has a purported video of Netanyahu on its front page, but it looks like it is made with Artificial Intelligence.
https://www.aljazeera.com/tag/benjamin-netanyahu/
Everywhere seems to be calling it a fake now(not so many last night).
The IRGC have made a statement and they are happy with the confusion. Dead, or running, servers the same purpose and shows the world who is resilient(Iranian leaders were out walking with the huge crowds on International Quds Day a couple of days ago).
“The unknown fate of the Zionist criminal prime minister and the possibility of his death or his escape, along with his family, from the occupied territories reveal a crisis and the faltering situation of the Zionists,”
“If the child killer is still alive, we will strongly keep chasing and killing him.”
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/54485/IRGC-Vows-to-Pursue%2C-Kill-%98Child-Killer-Netanyahu-If-He-Is-Still-Alive
After the introduction of the 1 ton missile, Iran has now started using the 2 ton Khorramshahr and for the first time, the Sejjil missile makes an appearance, with special mention going to squatter command centres, so maybe making sure that no one, if still alive, is getting out(their type of double tap).
Does anyone know of a site tracking oil & gas infrastructure hits?
Saudi has apparently been hit and Iran is saying that someone is using a copy of their drones to accuse them.
Now who do we know that has been reverse engineering the Shahed 136 drone?
Just after Trump said those that use Hormuz have to take over. Coincidence no doubt.
There must be a quite a few Bibi lookie-likies around. He is such an ordinary middle-aged ethnic Eastern European Jewish guy who wouldn’t stand out at a mobsters’ convention or in a suspect lineup in a police station.
Conversely, it would be hard to find a credible Trump stand-in. Unique physiognomy plus a special kind of crazy that would be very difficult to imitate.
There is also that Jeffrey E. clip as he drives in open cabriolet in slower-dense traffic on the US hw system as seen – recorded from another lane vehicle.
Probably also AI fake, but it’s done with exceptionally good taste, not overdone in any aspect. And the way he wears the cap is absolutely pin pointing his [ zero-2-hero ] personality..
Huh, used to be longer version, now only found this one..
https://t.me/myLordBebo/109826#
Plot thickens, under closer inspection actually it looks more like EUR/CAN/.. high way.
And there used to be ~American accent driver voice over.. if I recall it right..
US crimes seem to be at a 125 year low.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/whats-behind-the-historic-drop-in-u-s-crime-7cf72353
What’s Behind the Historic Drop in U.S. Crime
Explanations for the fall range from tougher policing to societal changes like less alcohol consumption and more time spent alone
The homicide rate fell last year to at least a 125-year low, based on projected final-year data, a milestone President Trump hailed last month in his State of the Union address. Continuing drops in a range of other reported crimes, such as robbery and theft, point to a public-safety rebound after the upheaval spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Overall, most crimes are lower than where they were prepandemic,” said Ernesto Lopez, a senior research specialist with the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice and co-author of a recent report on crime trends. The findings are based on data for a few dozen big cities, though data availability varied by crime category.
Theories to explain decreasing crime range from an influx of federal funding to stepped-up police enforcement, along with longer-term societal shifts, like reduced alcohol consumption and increased time spent alone.
Just an anecdotal aside. I talked to a fellow co-worker and he explained to me why the city we live in Florida has such an exceptionally low crime rate. Actually, much lower than the national average. He said the police will only file so many crime reports because it makes the crime statistics go up and people won’t move to the city.
In other words, it’s bad for the cities business. I suspect just like the unemployment and inflation numbers which never match the reality on the street, I would lump national, state and local crime statistics in with the rest.
It’s like the old saying: “It goes to show how figures lie and liars figure”.
Some reasons for that, maybe:
People aren’t having many children anymore > less absolute criminal numbers
Less young peopl > less people at criminal age
Less young people problematic behaviors > less crimes in general
Alchool use all time low > less impulsive behaviors for crime
Relationships all time low > less passionate crimes
People more chronically online > less time outside commiting crimes
Internet crimes/scams more prevalent > less time doing physical/material crimes
Lenient justice system > less criminals being condemned
Police having a hard time due to political agenda > crimes being underreported
Good points!
Dont forget that everyone has a video camera, and everything is tracked from tower to tower. Precrime is probably up next with AI
This is the first time that I am saying you must see this to understand what is coming next . Two great minds — Yanis Varoufakis and Prof Glenn Diesen . The end of neo liberal economics .
” Iran had to choose — the Ayatollah regime or being a failed state like Libya , Syria ” They have chosen the former .
If their former Supreme Leader who was martyred had allowed for a nuclear bomb(s) to be developed, they wouldn’t be fighting both Israel and the US right now. And over 165 school girls would be alive today instead of being killed by a US Tomahawk missile which the US is now being pressured to admit, they fired it.
Yes, that has been noted recently.
What I’ve found more interesting for nuanced debate and future implications are the following two hist. details mentioned by Varoufakis:
1: The Iran revolution of the 1970s was possible only because of broad national coalition, incl. communists and hard socialists, but when the new govs were to be formed, the hard conservative line Islamist faction killed them all.
2. During the ~Obama years, this ~soft globo faction almost succeeded in pulling (luring) Iran govs over into the int. order aka some sort of ~benign nascent petrodollar+ (revision) system in the works then.
This path dependency can tell us a lot about the recent past, present and into the future.
Worth a watch — the “lower classes” lose.
I thought this (probably) AI video explained the issues quite well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hePLbzPTCYg
I am not sure that Yanis Varoufakis is as turned into these dynamics as he might be.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/china-owns-canadas-only-antimony-mine-and-shuttered-it-critical-minerals-power-play
China Owns Canada’s Only Antimony Mine And Shuttered It In Critical Minerals Power Play
In the rugged interior of Newfoundland, an hour’s drive west from the Canadian Forces Base in Gander, sits a dormant mine with profound implications for the nation’s security and prosperity. Beaver Brook could be the largest North American producer of antimony — a critical mineral threaded through the entire spectrum of modern military hardware, from small arms and artillery shells to advanced missile seekers and night-vision goggles.
But China owns the mine and shut it down in early 2023 — one year before Beijing imposed export controls blocking antimony sales to U.S. military end users, driving prices from about US$5,900 per tonne to more than US$50,000.
Antimony forms in crystalline masses, often clustered in dark silver needles — nature’s own suggestion of the gunmetal world it enters. It was little known before Washington recognized that Beijing had quietly secured a near-monopoly over the world’s critical mineral supply, antimony among them.
Now another one from DJT asking other countries to participate in the war .
” President Trump – “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”
https://x.com/brett_mcgurk/status/2032822186650517844/photo/1
Out of the countries he has asked — France and the UK already said ” Thank You ” along with Italy . SK and Japan don’t have a blue water navy so no chance . China will not because it will show them as weak doing the USA’s bidding . Desperation for an off ramp . Hello DJT you removed the anti missiles from SK , well Little Kim sent you a love letter .
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/north-korea-fires-ballistic-missiles-as-us-south-korea-hold-military-drills
Didn’t we already try this with Operation Presperity Guardian in the Red Sea
[SK] = MG aka RCC-land aka Slovakia
[KR] = South Korea
[KP] = DPRK aka North Korea
—
ISO codes for the win!
The US doesn’t seem to be selling oil into the market; it seems to be loaning them, to be repaid with interest! To be paid back within the next year!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-begin-86-million-barrel-spr-dump-next-week-exchange-program
Earlier this week, it announced a SPR release (an outright sale, and the method used in the emergency actions of 1991, 2005, 2011, and 2022). But now, the DOE has published details for something different: a SPR exchange (effectively, an oil loan, with the barrels returned later with interest).
The US gov seems to have changed its mind about the terms of the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve:
Earlier this week, it announced a **SPR release** (an outright sale, and the method used in the emergency actions of 1991, 2005, 2011 and 2022)
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright released a statement saying this SPR release [only 86 million barrels] will begin next week and “take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates.”
“President Trump promised to protect America’s energy security by managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve responsibly, and this action demonstrates his commitment to that promise,” Wright said.
He continued, “Unlike the previous administration, which left America’s oil reserves drained and damaged, the United States has arranged to more than replace these strategic reserves with approximately 200 million barrels within the next year, 20% more barrels than will be drawn down, and at no cost to the taxpayer.”
Stupid . What if they don’t return ? Bomb Exxon , Chevron etc . That is all he knows . Really a lunatic .
what if someone declares oil bankruptcy?
weve been oil bankrupt for 50 years
we disguised it with ever-increasing debt
The debt based fiat monetary (currency) system is one end of the candle.
The depleting energy, natural resources, water, top soil, minerals form the other end.
We are burning this candle at both ends. Burning either end alone is enough to burn through the candle.
There are no longer any practical legal, political, or constitutional remedies to delay the burn rates.
There is no applicable rule of law for the elites. Only bribery or bullets.
Violence in the face of tyranny is often necessary. Our founding fathers recognized this when they gave us the 2A. But any transition/restoration/alternative could be just as bad. Just ask the French after their declaration of independence how Robespierre’s Reign of Terror worked out for them.
At least we may still have a choice./S
Still I sense a business opportunity. The Saudis could do it. Get loaned some oil now, sell it, then repay in a few months using assets at Blackrock. It is almost certainly profitable, and it de-dollarizes. If Blackrock does not release them, call for force majeure.
war is just a business opportunity i’m afraid
old men profit off the backs of dead young men
Killing most of the 90 million in Iran and most of the 86 million in Turiye still remains an important objective for greater Israel. I guess a minimum of six years of slow targeted bombardment. What about article five of NATO charter LMAO does not apply when GI benefits.
It’s a misdirection play. Iran and Turkey are two very important contributors to Phase 2 of the non-public Degrowth Agenda.
Source?
In the end they are not compatible with whatever they are cooking
Yes, that’s a Source statement. 😁
As I stated years ago under the simplified framework of the Horsetrading Theory of Everything (HTOE), Turkey’s compatibility lies in its delayed repayment of its multi-year backdoor natural gas import bailouts (courtesy of the Hidden Hand) comes during Phase 2, when Turkey acts as a great wall against Big Nuclear Scare- driven Middle East mass migration into Europe. And by extension, mitigating social unrest in the ME. And Iran’s compatibility lies in its ability to export a huge amount of oil.
Not most. All.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/la-crisis-que-viene-es-la-definitiva
I think this is a good analogy for where we are going
I wonder what will happen when Americans start screaming at trump about high fuel prices. Everyone there seems to use a lot of energy. Who knows maybe he can keep the price down . Although I think that it does not look good we will have Covid , 2008 and 9/11 all rolled into one
This is an article by Quark. Its title in English is The coming crisis… is the final one. Phases of the crisis
The three phases are
1st) Inflation phase (2026-2027).
Also rising interest rates.
Says Iran now has a target oil price of $200 per barrel.
He talks about bubbles in AI, housing, stock markets, and private credit
Likely a severe economic crisis, including a severe drop in the stock market.
Authorities will try to intervene, which will lead to next phase.
2nd) Phase of the massive monetary injection (2027-2030) .
To try to counteract all of the problems, more and more government debt is injected. “Natural growth no longer exists.” All growth comes from debt.
3rd) Phase of the destruction of the fiduciary system (2030-2033).
Leads to hyperinflation
——
Last section is Attempts at a solution.
Governments will try rationing using a digital system. The consumption of local products will be promoted.
Nothing will ever be the same again.
——–
Generally, this pattern sounds right to me. How well governmental organizations can stay in place will make a huge difference. It is hard for me to understand timing.
making me feel genuinely sick now—as collapse begins to unfold
i wrote that the USA was headed for dictatorship—but inside i didnt want to believe it—we are now feeling the result, just like last time…85 years ago…..then too—the fuhrer was warned about his actions, he too ignored reality——
at least i was able to make the ofw flat earthers laff—until now…
+++++++++++++
written by me, in 2012/13, Page 81, from my book The End of More
///Energy depletion is going to cause global economies to nosedive, and there will be a desperate grab for any lifeline of salvation, no matter how extreme.
The pattern is being set.
It may be only a matter of time before conditions worsen to the point where a theocratic dictatorship is all that’s on offer, and the American people might just grab at it in desperation. The basic structure of such political madness is already in place. Given the right circumstances it will establish itself by popular vote. When it does so it will not easily be got rid of.////
When it is not possible to establish order using police force and education, the system must turn to something else.
A major purpose of religions is to provide rules that lead to people behaving in ways that stay within planetary boundaries, even without a big police force and huge educational system.
Now, people have been told that they are entitled to far more than the planet can really provide. Pensions, in particular, must be reeled in. Level health care and the level of police presence must also drop dramatically. The only things that can fill the loss (caused by a loss of fossil fuel energy) are religions that lead to self-control and perhaps overly strict rules.
religion is good in theory
but
religion doesnt resolve mental instability .—or criminal intent.
donnie waves a bible around, and gullible fools think he’s chosen by god—why?
because theyve been indoctrinated for 2000 years that ”one” will return to put the world right—so an idiot shows up who more or less fits the bill. (I do admire those biblical soothsayers tho—make me look like a raw tea-leaf teller.)
so lets kill the infidels to make jesus happy…….utter nonsense…
religion filled the gaps of discontent—and has done for 000s of years—ie—this life is awful, but god offers you paradise in the next if you put up with it….
so serfs/slaves continued to wallow in their filth.—while a privieleged few lived in luxury—twas ever thus…
i try to act in common decency….with no religion.. atheists do not murder in the name of atheism—only godbotherers do that i’m afraid….
now we’re stuck in war where each knows the other side are infidels…
tell me that aint utter madness…..which this time is likely to take us all down
smack on those mid 2020s too.
(why cant i be the chosen one?)
I’m afraid, you have no conception about what religion is and all the good things it does for people.
That’s because you are a pagan, an atheist, an infidel, a heretic, and most of all a blasphemer!
“i try to act in common decency….with no religion.. atheists do not murder in the name of atheism—only godbotherers do that i’m afraid….”
Norman, you are not comparing like with like. Atheism is just a lack of belief in religion. Where do you see the millions of people declaring, “Atheists of the world, unite!” You don’t. It is almost as silly as the old joke, “Xenophobes of the world, unite!”
However, non-religious (or atheist) people and politicians are also at times capable of committing great evil and of imposing great suffering on those they regard as their enemies. Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and all the rest. You know the names.
Hitler, Stalin, Mao committed their crimes in the name of ideas and ideologies. They were – or became – extremists. As Richard Dawkins said, we humans are all just meme-ridden apes. But our memes and beliefs and ideas – how often do they relate, in their entirety – to reality? As I see it, politicians are moderates or extremists in their behaviour. Fortunately, most are moderates, but they can transition from that to extremism. Then again, what do extremism and moderation mean? They are subjective memes and do not have the same reality or universality as “two plus two equals four”.
A “godbotherer” is ultimately just a meme too, or an idea. But I know what you mean, and I am not a fan of religion either and all the paraphernalia around it. Probably I am best described as a pantheist. I notice things and see that the universe has certain powers. But I won’t go into that here.
Wasn’t it also rather about “fuhrer ignored depravity” ?
He made the logical (WW1 based experience) decision NOT taking advice-bait from British elite / aristocrats and when getting AUT, CZE, .. from them for free then instead on Soviets, his next attack turned on FR and the low countries shocking Western Europe.
Reality based analysis called for massacring the evacuating forces across the British Channel right there, but Germans let them go for some reason linked to not going fully antagonistic with still such important country globally.
Some further background negotiations likely taken place even later as Rudolf Hess flew on “un authorized” solo mission to Scotland (1941) and then was set incommunicado till 1987 in Spandau prison not to compromise publicly some elite circles still alive (and the narrative itself).
Yet, the postwar (winner’s) consensus established very different narratives and final conclusion after-wards: here look crazy people vs. over here solid people, ..
Fuhrer gambled and almost won, gambled still more and lost.
Not personal: but the lesson being if British / French chap talks about Monday, it’s more likely Friday, and the stated month number itself also doesn’t fit.
Btw. Macron met the UKRo darling today, body hugs beyond close encounters of the third kind, sporting double clasps on lux shoes.. what a freakish duo..
..billions in flow motion..
I dunno if X is somehow getting access to my internet comments or search history or what, but this came up in my X feed:
https://x.com/Judyth/status/2032436457353126229
>> 20 yrs ago, 2 medical experts’ little boy succumbed to brain cancer. SV40 was found in the tumor. It HAD to come from his shotz , his parents knew, because they had saved their son’s umbilical cord fluid at birth, and neither it nor the parents tested positive for SV40. However, SV40 DNA was in the oral polio vaxxine their pediatrician gave to their son in 1997. This was 34 years after the CDC claimed that after 1963, SV40 was no longer in any polio vaxxines. They took it to court, but the judge threw out the case. SV40 DNA is still found in injections for children to the present day.
https://www.medindia.net/news/parents-launch-sv40-cancer-foundation-in-memory-of-son-7522-1.htm
They are barking up the wrong tree. Like I said, the cutting edge of the establishment has realized that our oncogenic tumors produce and transport sv40 in order to downregulate our immune system so that it doesn’t attack the cancer because our own body is the one that initiated the cancer protocol in the first place in order to deal with a dangerous carcinogenic overflow.
You don’t get to have it both ways: sv40 can’t be a virus and a mere immunosuppressant oncoprotein at the same time, yet you and the establishment want to have it both ways. And this example is a really good TELL. ‘viruses’ ARE really just genetic proteins, and oncoproteins are just genetic proteins made by tumor cells that our bodies radically mutated in order to save it’s on life. Tumors make sv40 and the establishment orthodoxy mistranslates that as a virus causing the cancer and replicating in the cancer. Funny thing is, it’s not an abundant oncoprotein so obviously the ‘virus’ isn’t replicating much, yet it’s still supposedly able to cause the cancer in the first place. Go figure.
Why is it that you can see the establishment is stoopid in some ways but not this way. They self-admittedlt don’t even know what cancer is, yet they get to be an authority on it, and marry it to virology?
Their viral sv40 theory is perfectly analogous to the plandemic’s fake ass pcr-based casedemic.
I’m clarifying this because I suspect most people reading this will not have a clue.
According to the official consensus—which for all I know may be nonsensus—SV40 is an abbreviation for simian vacuolating virus 40 or simian virus 40—a polyomavirus that is found in both monkeys and humans.
According to Reante, and I quote, ” ‘viruses’ ARE really just genetic proteins, and oncoproteins are just genetic proteins made by tumor cells that our bodies radically mutated in order to save it’s on life. Tumors make sv40 and the establishment orthodoxy mistranslates that as a virus causing the cancer and replicating in the cancer. ”
If Reante is correct, then sv40 is actually a genetic protein.
A genetic protein is a functional molecule built from amino acids, whose specific sequence, structure, and function are determined by instructions within a gene (DNA). These proteins are synthesized by ribosomes via mRNA, forming structural components (e.g., collagen), enzymes, or messengers that determine an organism’s traits and physical function.
I find the hypothesis Reante has put forward intriguing. I have no idea if it is true or even if it’s plausible, but I find it thought-provoking in a head-scratching way. I’m willing to accept that it might be true and leave it at that for the moment as a valuable, nay, precious piece of conjecture. Norman, on the other hand, will probably find it implausible in an eye-rolling way. But that’s just him.
If in doubt, ask a bot, I always say. So I asked:
According to the bot:
Short answer: very unlikely. SV40 (simian virus 40) is a well-characterized DNA virus whose proteins are encoded by a viral genome that enters cells and is expressed using the host machinery; there is no plausible basis or evidence that SV40 is a “genetic protein synthesized in the body by ribosomes” in the sense that the virus itself would be a spontaneously produced protein rather than a nucleic-acid–based infectious agent.
Followed by blah blah blah for over a dozen paragraphs, and then….
Conclusion: The mainstream molecular, genetic, biochemical and virological evidence strongly supports SV40 being a DNA virus whose lifecycle requires its genome. The idea that SV40 is instead a “genetic protein synthesized in the body by ribosomes” is inconsistent with experimental data and current understanding of virology and is therefore not a valid hypothesis without extraordinary new evidence.
But you’d expect that sort of answer from a bot trained on mainstream data, wouldn’t you.
Thanks Tim. Yeah for heterodox stuff like this it just requires cornering AI so that it can’t be ideological. Tag, otherwise known as Large T antigen, is the active immunosuppressant oncoprotein of SV40. I asked the Google bot, “does Tag in tumor cells get produced in the ribosomes?”
“Yes, the Large T antigen (Tag or LTag), a viral oncoprotein found in tumor cells infected by SV40 or similar polyomaviruses, is produced in the ribosomes.
Production Mechanism: Like other proteins, the mRNA encoding the Large T antigen is translated by ribosomes in the cytoplasm of the tumor cell.
Role in Transformation: The Large T antigen is a regulatory protein that binds to cellular tumor suppressors p53 and pRb, driving uncontrollable cell proliferation and tumor formation.
Ribosome Association: While Tag is produced in the cytoplasm, it frequently accumulates in the nucleus of tumor cells to function as a DNA helicase and transcriptional regulator.
Additionally, cancer cells generally exhibit increased ribosome production (hyperactive ribosome biogenesis) to sustain the high protein synthesis rates needed for rapid tumor growth, including the production of viral proteins like Tag.”
Notice how here at the end it still calls them viral proteins. Whaddya gonna do eh?
To the question of whether tumor signaling exosomes transport SV40, using a neutral, old school, pre-AI search term works best because then the AI has to refer to the serious literature, which is the kind of material I used to wade through and used to post excerpts from here at OFW. Search term: “tumor signaling exosomes SV40”
AI:
“Exosomes act as critical nanovesicle messengers in tumor signaling, transferring bio-active molecules (proteins, RNAs, miRNAs) between cells to promote cancer development, remodeling the tumor microenvironment (TME), and enabling immune escape. Simian Virus 40 (SV40), a DNA virus, uses these pathways to induce cancer, specifically by expressing large and small T-antigens that disrupt cellular tumor suppressor proteins like p53 and pRb.”
So SV40 oncoproteins use exosomal pathways for suppressing tumor suppressing proteins made by white blood cells that want to attack tumor cells because white blood cells have no way of knowing that our tumor cells are our body’s radically genetically mutated cells for a special purpose. The WBCs are only evolved to recognize that the different proteins on the surface of tumor cells are the proteins of unhealthy cells needing to be killed. (Valid euthanasia this time, lol, because unhealthy cells are bad for the body.) And WBCs were evolved in multicellular organisms way, way before a cancer protocol was ever evolved, so when mammalian evolution eventually evolved cancer it couldn’t do anything about WBCs wanting to attack cancer cells so it had to evolve the cancer cells with defense capabilities against the human immune system. And Tag is just one of the minor immunosuppressants that tumor cells produce.
Someone one might object, “well, SV40 is a DNA virus and Tag are oncoproteins which are just amino acid chains, so confirming that Tag is made in ribosomes and transported in exosomes doesn’t mean anything.”
My response would be that SV40 is a DNA structure and our cells produce such DNA structures and transport them in exosomes around the body and out into the outside world as well so that they can communicate with other bodies, too.
AI:
Signaling exosomes can carry various types of genetic material, including DNA fragments. While the primary focus of exosomal cargo is often RNA and proteins, research has shown that exosomes can transport DNA, including in cancer and in response to genotoxic stress.
National Institutes of Health (NIH) | (.gov)
National Institutes of Health (NIH) | (.gov)
+2
Exosomal DNA Carriage: Studies have demonstrated that exosomes, especially those derived from tumor cells, can contain genomic DNA (gDNA) fragments, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), and telomeric DNA.
Helicase Presence: Exosome complexes themselves are known to associate with RNA helicases of the MTR4/SKI2 family (such as MTR4 in humans) to assist in RNA processing and degradation.
DNA Damage Response: Under genotoxic stress, exosomes act as messengers, carrying DNA fragments and damage-associated proteins to other cells.
Controversy in Literature: While many studies confirm the presence of DNA in exosome preparations, it is sometimes debated whether this DNA is truly enclosed within the exosomal lumen (as “cargo”) or if it is attached to the exterior surface of the vesicle, or represents a separate type of extracellular vesicle.”
Besides showing how SV40 is also a body made molecule that gets transported in exosomes, I also bring this up because in my original comment I slightly mischaracterized SV40 itself as an oncoprotein, because I hadn’t yet gotten into the weeds and, likewise, I mischaracterized (was loose with the terminology more like) oncoproteins themselves as genetic proteins when in fact the submolecule Tag is the oncoprotein and it is not technically a genetic protein — just an amino acid chain — though it is obviously doing the specific bidding of the genetic SV40.
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-13-schrodingers-war
All kinds of interesting things.
Regarding Netanyahu:
, the Prime Minister’s Office posted a statement that belongs in a novel: “Rumors circulating on social media about PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s status are UNCONFIRMED. Efforts are underway to establish contact.”
Establish contact. With your own Prime Minister.
There is an amazing photograph of American soldiers in full combat attire standing in the lobby of a very fancy hotel (after Iran eliminated much of their base, so they had to leave).
France and Italy are both pulling their soldiers and other support out. They are trying to negotiate separately with Iran. Loss of support from allies is part of the reason for sending in US troops.
One French base more up north towards Iraq~Syrian areal.. (combatant spill-over threat to their former African colonies)
Second one in UAE has a bit smaller deployment of forces.
better info in text not in map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_military_bases_of_France
Another excellent one from no01 wouldn’t you say Jr?
Good coverage, basically most points debated here as well..
As for predictive value – why is he not already retired via success strikes at Polymarket betting parlor then?
Give me the real meat though:
petrodollar ends in ~5,10,15,25, … yrs horizon.
And or the big one launch date..
Hm, I guess he is not in that fine extra league after-all (we neither self-criticism applied).
Speak for yourself dawg, my extralegal ass applies self-criticism as I see fit.
You are putting the heart (cart) before the horse.The horse of civilization. The question is not about when the petrodollar ends but when the civilization ends because the petrodollar is the beating heart of civilization, because money is the blood.
Again, it goes back to this psyop that the Hand loves to promulgates:the dollar is a hyperinflating fake fiat currency boohoohoo! Meanwhile, in the World Of The Real, the dollar is the hardest currency that’s ever existed because it is the universal proxy for the oil master resource. The dollar is the heart. And we would never ask when it was that my friend, Warren’s, heart died. We would always ask when Warren died, meaning his body. And we would always ask that because everybody already knows that the heart dies when the body dies.
3-8 years is my WAG in this moment.
Enjoyed the vax thread on previous page, thanks.
That was a great point about all the diverse pollution people are subject to and still not (or ~few) triggers cancer; and biology liking constant cycling – flow.
Basically, the key trick is still the same simple: lean living so the immune response / regen could work as fast and direct as possible inside non bloated body.
Like a posh polo player or mountain goat herder. It’s almost the same: even short distance horse riding works up all parts of the body, similarly as fast walking on steep terrain and moving the ~heavy herding stick around constantly. That’s the 90+ longevity, although for polo it’s necessary to have air lift on stand-by ready for the spinal injuries – and should the herder trip into ravine, well the same fate..
Right on brother. Nice additions.
Canadian Prepper says tactical nukes will have to be used.
The American way is not negotiable, and those who run things are not in a position to think for a long term.
Tactical nukes will be used, Iran’s last resistance will be squashed, and TPTB will worry about consequences later. There is no other choice.
Canadian Prepper is more interested in selling stuff . Ignore . Useless .
Not sure about that.
There is still a central gov in Iran but the extent to which they control the country is very limited. The (post attack) distributed military command cells are following their own pre-issued (autonomy) plans, so they perhaps can’t (won’t) be curbed from the other (core)- branches of the government at all. Why, where should the US strike with tactical nukes in such setting?
To what effect?
Don+ clearly, repeatedly said to them, we could escalate up into attacking (conventionally) civilian and oil infrastructure; an option which up to this point has NOT been fully engaged.
Back to my argument about [ core state cultures ] made few days ago, it still holds. Iranians will be still satisfied if bombarded into stone age, while not yielding an inch in concessions, limited sovereignty – vassalage pact, negotiations with the US.
Similarly, the Chinese stay put home waiting for some future implosion ala “Latin lover” – mild socialist taking over US in ~2035-2050.. plunging it into state vs state crisis. Before that Chinese don’t move.. , they will “only” tip toe around trade-wise and self-development.
In the same vein, only PL/HU/SK are able to some degree stand up (largely disorganized non coalition) against the centralized EU govs and their various policy mandates, probably with null to limited effect in the end, but trying.
wow, the west is winning! I look forward to my relatives driving all over europe on cheap gas!
Eh? The article was about refuting the n-blast viability at this point in game, plus repeating that validated argument why Iran’s position is so weak (to dismay / surprise of many).
Not sure what is your problem?
I repeatedly stated / predicted that EUR zone goes under the poverty bus as well (before US).
I guess you get constant moral appeals and this ME war atrocity footage across RU msm channels, ok, but that’s not the topic here.
The issue is weighting the severity and sequencing of collapse of the industrial civ, not kinder garden finger pointing about villains.
One nuke will just have Russia and China enter the conflict, plus Kiev will get one and the entire US fleet will be oreshniked. More will have the same result. Predictions please. I think this will last several months at least, but probably longer.
I’ll stick with the earlier made “prophecy” months up two years of limited action. From now on after ~6months the Hormuz at least in limited continuous order again for tankers, be it guarded by C-RAM eq. navy etc. or other such similar ~lower expense commitment.
2035
A year where people will live in mud hui won’t even think about 2050
Bold call !
Although you might be right since Brazil announced they will have da-bomb as well, and given their atrociously bad after-taste grape wines, well they indeed could by ~2035 join the global fire works melee..
Based on true story
and shot on location of Lula’s decrepit plantations.
Us older people often stigmatize that we don’t understand modern art performed by youngsters, well not true if it goes directly to the subject matter as this one..
Was Kharg Island attacked? That was the Iranian redline f9r the destruction of the entire Gulf oil production
Reported in various msm over past ~six hrs:
https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/14/trump-threatens-irans-oil-infrastructure-after-us-bombs-kharg-island-military-sites
More info on that near deep water port:
“Why has the US targeted Iran’s Kharg Island?”
BBC also in conclusion confirming my points..
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8jxzlwvd8ro
this is good.. were you also making points about washing machine chips 4 years ago? tell us about it. Having the BBC behind you gives a lot of credibility.
Not very bright comment.
The hint was clearly about sudden msm changing narrative from Don’s debacle to limited strike capability of Iran from now on..
Didn’t Iran hit a U.S. ship recently forcing it to leave the area for emergency repairs? I don’t know junior the west is really controlling the news . 5 year prison sentence if you report anything bad; that makes me very suspicious of your interpretation. Do you work for the government? I wouldn’t put it past them to send out people like yourself to confuse the truth.
Direct answer: not working for the govs on the contrary been hard hit by them just la$t year.
PS did not get yours “5yrs” reference – I’m not ME based
PS2 supposedly they hit like ~15.000x targets in Iran – so any losses (if occurred) are non event if petrodollar lives for another ~5-25yrs..
I never have the BBC backing my posts. I am just jealous.
Are you sure you are not a government plant?? Now I understand all the abbreviations!! Just like a government employee would do! Tell Hegseth I said hello!!
So are Indian ships allowed to pass through the straits? Truth is hard to find
No .Confirm .
I read that India had confiscated several Iranian tankers some time ago and Iran released two Indian vessels in return for India releasing those Iranian tankers. Just a one-time exchange until further notice.
Incorrect . Nothing like this . Fake news .
Just reporting what I’ve read.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-seizes-iran-linked-us-sanctioned-tankers-steps-up-surveillance-2026-02-16/
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/iran-has-allowed-some-indian-vessels-pass-strait-hormuz-envoy-says-2026-03-14/
https://caliber.az/en/post/iran-india-reach-deal-on-ship-passage-through-strait-of-hormuz
>> Tehran and New Delhi have reached an agreement regarding the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
>> According to Khabar Fouri, citing sources familiar with the situation, India released three Iranian tankers that had been detained last month following an understanding related to the transit of Indian vessels through the strategic waterway.
>> In response, Iran allowed two Indian ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
>> Reports say high-level negotiations between the two sides are continuing. The main focus of the talks is to resolve issues related to maritime security and oil trade between Iran and India.
>> By Tamilla Hasanova
https://x.com/BabakVahdad/status/2032754673971527921
>> Iranian channels claim that India has released three Iranian oil tankers seized last month in exchange for Tehran allowing two Indian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to these reports, high-level talks are ongoing on maritime security and oil trade between the two countries.
” From the above links ”
1 .citing sources familiar with the situation .
So giving you the correct information . These ships were in the Gulf of Oman and did not need to go across Iranian waters . Second they were ships with Indian flags but carrying cargo for Africa . Still nothing from the Ministry of External Affairs on the Iranian permission .
” Bunker fuel prices have surged to record levels in March 2026, with IFO380 jumping from $456 to $841 per metric ton—an 84% increase. For a 30-vessel fleet, that’s an additional $150M+ in annual costs.”
I better go and load up on sea food before it becomes unaffordable 😭
Link .
https://www.harborlab.com/how-to-control-port-costs-when-bunker-prices-spike-80/
Update . Absolute chaos . From LPG directly to wood and coal . Last I recall is my family cooking on kerosene when I was 10 . However kerosene stoves have vanished ( kicking out rungs as we climbed higher on the energy ladder) so now back to wood . 75 years knocked out in one week .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/panic-buying-sweeps-india-war-disrupts-cooking-gas-supplies
Oh just wait when the fertilizer shortage hits and becomes apparent that without fertilizer, you can’t grow stuff and supplies of food crops become either too expensive to buy or they are not available.
Soylent Green coming
Keep the updates flowing, great reporting, thanks.
Apart from biomass some of the small burners also take these tablets of solid petroleum fuel, but the price has probably risen already anyway in recent months/yrs.. You would have to get them in bulk when on sale / unloved through petrol price bottoms..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firelighter
//
For the first time now noticed ~notable widening spread (mark up) on diesel vs gasoline at ordinary fuel station in EUR, perhaps reaching ~(15% vs 10%) of previous-calm situation. Could be also flux among different station brands, some smaller independents still edge lower because of higher gasoline demand location (city vs highway – lorries, vans, pickups), serious large convoy diesel trucks have their own proprietary (cheaper) fuel depots.
Diesel private carz NOT as many/popular as 15-30yrs ago though, so it will rather affect bigger biz (trucks) first and then passing this on through services and product inflation.
LPG crisis triggers migrant worker exodus from Kerala ahead of Ramzan, polls .
Collateral damage . Reverse migration . I am sure nobody envisaged this .
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/lpg-crisis-triggers-migrant-worker-exodus-from-kerala-ahead-of-ramzan-polls/
I’m waiting for the “kingdoms” to feel this full scale and then they can return to what they were(Oman in the case of UAE).
https://x.com/Eng_china5/status/2032175482226295129
“Iraqi researcher:
“If the war continues in this manner, Kuwait will become an Iraqi province, Qatar a Saudi province, Bahrain an Iranian province, and the United Arab Emirates will return to Oman.”
and they will all return to camel trading and goat herding
Homie is playing the HTOE (Horse trading Theory of Everything) game out on the creative commons. I like it. I can tell you from experience that that guy would have gotten ridiculed two weeks ago for inventing shit. . In related news, Michael Jordan was cut from his high school varsity team as a sophomore. They say it fueled his fire for the rest of his career.
Here we go.
15.40
“The Iranian Armed Forces have issued a warning to the people of the United Arab Emirates to immediately evacuate Jebel Ali Port, Fujairah Port, and Khalifa Port”
https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews
Here only 2x questions remaining:
1: Iranian (ballistic cave), short range (blue containers), armed drones only
2: Is Don then going to really jump on the escalator ladder as promised (eliminating Iran’s oil / gas for good or by sections / pause – repeat)
when all succeeding presidents after washington automatically became commander in chief, it was never anticipated that a certifiable lunatic would inherit the job….
to all ofw inmates who voted him into office…
congratulations on the collapse of civilisation
according to the article all the jobs are being filled by local women in the area so no big deal it is all part of the plan to put women in jobs
I can believe this! We need to cook our food, one way or another.
Wow!
Free markets in America. Come on.
Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, said the consultancy had been fielding calls this week on whether the government was behind a series of large unexplained trades in recent days.
“We were being pushed by clients as to who the big seller was,” Skirrow said.
“The speculation was that it could be from the US Treasury,” he added, noting that the government has previously intervened in other markets, such as currencies.
Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy founded by former White House energy adviser Bob McNally, said this week that while such a move by the government would be “unprecedented”, it was clear “the idea of the US Treasury selling front-month crude futures” was getting “more attention than usual”.
“Given the current panic situation,” Rapidan analysts wrote in a note for clients, “we cannot completely rule it out”.
The Treasury declined to comment on the speculation. A person familiar with Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s thinking said the agency had not intervened in oil markets.
A spokesman at the Department of Energy said it had not been involved in oil derivatives trading or advising other arms of the government on such a course of action.
Speculation that the US government is trying to manipulate the market oil prices down.