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The underlying problems are energy-related
A few years ago, I analyzed the growth of world energy consumption, breaking it down into (a) the growth in energy consumption needed to support the growth in world population, and (b) the growth in energy consumption available to support higher standards of living. This analysis covered the period 1820 to 2020. I found that periods of low growth tended to coincide with wars, depressions, and collapses. This is not surprising in a world economy governed by the laws of physics. Every part of the economy requires adequate energy of appropriate kinds.
In this post, I analyze data for 5-year periods, ending in 2024, to obtain an updated view of recent energy consumption and population trends. My conclusion is that total energy consumption growth in recent years has not been sufficient to forestall major problems. A more detailed analysis reveals that growth in certain vital resources (the diesel+jet fuel part of oil supply, and critical minerals related to electricity production and usage) is particularly problematic.
These findings indicate that the economy is already beginning to hit energy limits. Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.
[1] Figure 2 is a stacked bar chart showing similar indications to Figure 1.
The total of the red and blue segments is the average annual increase in world energy consumption over a particular 10-year period. The blue amounts (usually at the bottom) are those necessary to provide services at the same level as in the past, given the population increase. The red amounts (usually at the top) are determined by subtraction. Large red caps are good, while red caps below the zero line are very bad. They indicate that the per-capita energy supply is declining.
[2] The largest increases in Figure 2 correspond to favorable economic times.
The vertical text in Figure 1 provides examples of how low points in energy consumption have proven to be very bad. In this section, I show that the opposite is also true: High points tend to correspond to very good times economically.
One peak in Figures 1 and 2 coincides with the 1901 to 1910 period. This period corresponds to early electrification and advances in the mechanization of agriculture. It was before 1913 when the United Kingdom hit peak coal, limiting the amount of coal that could be profitably extracted. Germany hit peak hard coal shortly before World War II. After peak coal was reached, less coal was available per capita. Leaders felt the pressure of “not enough coal to go around” and opted for war.
In Figures 1 and 2, rapid energy growth occurred after World War II, during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. The lower peak in the 2001-2010 period coincided with much greater use of coal after China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001. High-wage countries started transferring their industry to China because costs would be lower in two ways: Wage costs were lower, and coal was an inexpensive fuel, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, by transferring industry, including manufacturing and mining, to China, high-wage countries could also lower their own CO2 emissions, as required by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
We would expect the patterns we are seeing in Figures 1 and 2 if the world economy is governed by the laws of physics. The availability of plenty of inexpensive energy, of kinds that match built infrastructure, is what is needed to allow the world economy to grow.
[3] Figure 3 shows more recent world energy data organized by 5-year periods. It shows how small the “red caps” of the types leading to favorable economic outcomes have been in the last decade.
The latest two 5-year periods comprise the years 2015 to 2024. The short red caps on these two 5-year periods mean that the economy is already being squeezed in the direction of not-enough-to go-around.
[4] Viewed on this same basis, diesel and jet fuel supplies are being squeezed even more than the overall supply of energy products.
Diesel and jet fuel are somewhat similar in composition. They are grouped together in some energy reports as “middle distillates.” They are relatively heavy oil products that come out of oil refineries. If there is a shortage of one, there likely is a shortage of the other as well.
Diesel and jet fuel are of concern because, since 2015, there has been an actual shrinkage in the amount of these fuels available relative to population. In fact, every five-year period since the 2000 to 2004 period has shown less growth in diesel and jet fuel than in the overall world energy supply. (Compare Figures 3 and 4.)
The low growth of diesel+jet fuel is particularly concerning because these fuels are essential for international transportation. With too little of these oil types, trade across the Atlantic and Pacific needs to shrink back. The physics of the situation makes tariffs look like an attractive solution for reducing trade.
Another concern is that diesel is essential for food production and transportation. Even if some other types of energy are available in plentiful supply, we cannot get along without food. While wind and solar are popular energy types today, they are not very useful for either international transport or for operating modern agricultural equipment.
[5] The underlying problem is that populations tend to outgrow their resource bases, including energy supplies.
The issue of the world not being able to support endlessly rising human population is an issue that no politician, auto maker, or economist wants to mention. The standard work-around is to show energy supplies without using an adjustment to a per-capita basis. This tends to make the energy situation look much better than it really is. Figure 6 is an example of such a chart.
Figure 6 emphasizes how modest the recent add-ons to the fossil fuel supply really are. These add-ons are made possible by fossil fuels; they would tend to disappear if fossil fuels were to disappear. Nuclear, which is the largest of the add-ons, requires both uranium and fossil fuels. The category “Wind+Solar” is the tiny green stripe at the top of Figure 6. In 2024, Wind+Solar amounted to 2.8% of world energy supply.
[6] It is easy to make electricity look like a growth area that can continue its pattern forever.
Figure 7 is a world electricity chart that, like Figure 6, is not on a per-capita basis.
There are a few details that are easy to miss:
(a) Current electricity production is quite small compared to the total energy supply. As counted by the Energy Institute, electricity amounts to only about 20% of total energy, varying by year and by part of the world. It is already incorporated in Figure 6.
(b) Almost all the non-fossil fuel part of the energy supply (“Add-Ons”) is electricity. In Figure 6, the only type of non-fossil energy shown that is not electricity is biofuels. These are mostly ethanol and biodiesel.
(c) Another detail that is easy to miss is the fact that the growth in the world’s electricity supply, as shown in Figure 7, has been almost exclusively outside the Advanced Economies–that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Advanced Economies group includes the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and several other countries.
Figure 8 shows the growth in electricity generation separately for the Advanced Economies and the Other Economies. The chart shows that generation of electricity by the Advanced Economies grew until 2007 but flattened after that date. Electricity generation by the Other Economies has grown the entire time since 1985. The rate of electricity production growth of Other Economies became noticeably more rapid after China joined the WTO in 2001.
Also, population growth since 1985 has disproportionately taken place in Other Economies, as contrasted with Advanced Economies.
[7] In the Advanced Economies, electricity production has recently been falling on a per capita basis, making a shift to greater electrification seem difficult.
A major issue is that the Advanced Economies are already seeing their electricity supplies per capita declining as shown on Figure 10 below. This is true for all five of the selected economies. Some of the lower consumption is due to efficiency improvements, but some is the result of the offshoring of jobs and industries to low-wage countries.
In comparison, electricity production per capita of other economies, with typically lower wages than Advanced Economies and often accompanied by more rapid population growth, has tended to rise, as shown on Figure 11.
The four “Other Economies” are less similar to each other than the five Advanced Economies. But what is striking is that they all have shown growth in per-capita electricity production since 1999. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s electricity production had risen to about the per-capita level of the US’s electricity production. By 2024, China’s per-capita electricity production had surpassed that of both the EU and the UK. Russia was part of the Soviet Union before the latter collapsed in 1991. Once Russia’s economy had started recovering from the collapse, about 1999, its per-capita electricity production also began to rise.
[8] Other issues are also making a continued shift to electrification appear difficult, particularly for the Advanced Economies.
Trying to work around using fossil fuels leads to the need for more specialized minerals to produce high tech electrical goods and electricity transmission. The problem faced by Advanced Economies is that they produce practically none of these minerals; they must import them. The US has a long list of minerals it considers critical.
Some of these minerals aren’t rare in the earth’s crust. Part of the problem is the lack of industrial capacity in Advanced Economies today, as industry has been moved overseas to reduce costs and local CO2 emissions. For example, the US used to be a major producer of aluminum, but this production has dwindled; other countries, including China, can produce aluminum at lower cost.
Another issue is that China produces the majority of quite a few of these minerals. The US, and probably the other Advanced Economies, had planned to buy what they needed on the world market. Now, production is not keeping up with the amount the world could easily use. In 2025, China announced export restrictions on some minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. It has become clear that if Advanced Economies want to have adequate supplies of high-demand minerals (including silver, copper, platinum, rare earth minerals, and uranium, among others), they need to start producing them themselves.
Diesel is used in extracting many of these minerals. If diesel is in short supply, that adds another layer of problems. All these issues may lie behind President Trump’s interest in Greenland.
[9] We don’t hear about these issues partly because academic researchers live in ivory towers, and partly because politicians don’t dare explain the issues to voters.
Part of the problem is that economists don’t understand how tightly the various parts of the world economy are interconnected through the laws of physics. Economists tend to believe that if there is a shortage, prices will rise, and these higher prices will solve nearly all problems. This is not necessarily the case. Buyers cannot purchase more than they can afford. Prices may spike temporarily and then fall back. Production of fossil fuels or minerals may end because prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, for producers to depend upon the higher prices for the long term.
In the case of a shortage, most people assume that the only change the economy will make is in prices. However, the economy is tightly interconnected. It can move production to a different part of the world, where wages and energy costs are lower. An indirect result, in the country losing jobs, may be more wage and wealth disparity. The US seems to be experiencing this issue now, with fewer young people being able to find a job that pays well.
Needless to say, politicians aren’t willing to admit, “We have difficulties for which we can see no solution.” Even leaders of universities are reluctant to suggest that there might be major problems ahead. They don’t want to frighten students or their parents. University officials want all problems to be ones their students can work on, with the hope of solving them in the next few years.
[10] What is happening now is similar to the outcome of a game of musical chairs, when there is one fewer chair than the number of players.
In the game of musical chairs, players walk around a group of chairs until the music stops. At the end of each round, one chair is removed, leaving one fewer chair than the number of players. In the next round, the remaining players all scramble for the chairs available, which often leads to small fights over who gets a chair. This not-enough-to-go-around problem explains the poor relations we see today among countries and political parties. It is also the underlying reason for the interest in imposing tariffs and in bombing other countries.
Financial markets tend to perform well during periods of economic growth. However, if certain kinds of essential resources are in short supply, this will tend to hold back growth. Debt defaults and falling stock markets could result. For these reasons, problems in financial markets may be ahead.
Major governmental changes may be ahead. Representative governments require more energy than simpler types of organizations, such as dictatorships. Furthermore, citizens do not like disorder; they may want to overthrow leaders who seem to allow too much disorder. They may vote them out of office or even try to assassinate them. The problem of resource inadequacy is structural, however. Getting rid of a particular leader doesn’t necessarily help the situation.
Everywhere in the world, at least part of today’s problem is that there are not enough jobs available that pay well. Economists have told us to expect high prices if there are shortages. In a way, not having enough jobs that pay well is the opposite problem. But from a physics standpoint, the result is the same. Only a few people can afford many of the goods that are available. The economists’ misinterpretation of what is going wrong further confuses people’s understanding of our current situation.
Mainstream media needs to cater to advertisers. Because of this issue, we cannot expect them to tell us what is happening. That task seems to fall to bloggers, like me. I try to write an article approximately every month. I hope that the graphs and other figures I have presented in this article will help readers understand why we are currently seeing more types of disruptions, such as tariffs and bombings.
How’s everyone doing today?
INVESTOR GUY is here to set things straight.
There is no need to fear.
We have plenty of diesel fuel.
We just need regulations to be relaxed so producers can invest in new equipment.
https://geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/p/crude-realities-why-the-us-imports
Thanks IG for sharing this .
” We just need regulations to be relaxed so producers can invest in new equipment. ”
Relax regs or conquer all lands you want . VZ is totally in US control but nobody is going there . The oil companies are in self liquidation mode . They know the end of the oil age is upon us . But anyway , thanks .
Second, third tier cities (150k pop out of 10M) in Cuba are now (over night) revolting, storming – burning local party HQ..
Little they know that what is coming is going to be much worse. get your Cuban bride know before she becomes a cheap prostitute.
Yes, hard to judge the severity of the insurgency right now (does appear as mostly few thugs + youngster crowds taken for a ride at night). Daylight massive walk outs of adults would be something on different scale though.
But, you are correct they will be abused under the next regime* and will have to find ways how to cope with it personally..
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* that Florida folk would perhaps like to enlarge the hotel industry – not sure about it in nascent global depression times, perhaps plantations win again, who knows..
Ironically as well, things aren’t much better for the rich on a stress / happiness metric unless you are one of the super rich. This is due to increased pressures to spend in order to socially survive (larger gaps in equity within social circles, increased ability to spend money, increased expectation to spend money), and now for the USA’s economic survival (having to squeeze as much value out of assets in order for a company to stay afloat, places being more reliant on the rich spending money) while risk in the current economy has also increased (debt rates for the rich have increased dramatically and many rich people actually live paycheck to paycheck). Its not a topic covered much and certainly not a sympathetic one, but its fairly true to say that right now its worse than most people realize.
The rich are going to be especially affected by increasing debt defaults and falling stock market prices. The way forward for them will, in some ways, be just as bad or worse than for poorer folks.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/1d6vsj6/can_someone_help_me_understand_intuitively_how/
“Can someone help me understand intuitively how service based economies work and why all countries can’t be rich service based economies (This question is dumb ik but its an FAQ for laymen, answering would help a lot of people)?”
The explanation from people in /AskEconomics was
that productivity in rich countries is higher, that is why they
can have service based economies with lots of white collar jobs
for people with college degrees.
There’s ignorance all around here.
The original poster presumes that there is a surplus of jobs of for educated people.
The respondents on higher productivity.
If a country like Britain is so productive, why manufacturing move out of Britain and into places like India?
When asked for further explanations, people who support the productivity hypothesis
will say that the reason why productivity is higher is because
the workforce for manufacturing in service-based economies
is more skilled, have more formal education and use more technology to automate more of the work. The reasons for use of technology an
automation is not just due to productivity. Sometimes, it is a
response to labor shortages and the cost of hiring a domestic worker. Oftentimes, moving any human labor required for manufacturing to a poor country is cheaper. Manufacturing workers in poor countries are not in most cases more skilled or more educated or use more technology.
As usual, the responses are deflections and rationalizations. By rational measures, the Austrian school libertarian ones I saw floating around on the internet 2010 2011, developed countries should have been at third world status by now and countries like India and China should have become first world countries. The rational line of thinking completely excludes resource limitations, but that’s how economists think. They are political creatures. All the math they use is rubbish.
We all need to eat, and we all need to cook our food. These are the absolute basics.
We would like to have heat and light for our homes. We would like physical transportation.
All of these things take physical resources including electricity transmission lines. If these physical resources are not there, we have a huge problem.
Services are “nice to haves” that get added, if the basics are available. Services are likely to shrink in demand greatly. Already, programmer jobs are disappearing. When the stock market and debt bubble pop, demand for financial analysts will go to zero.
Without enough of the right kinds of oil to transport goods across oceans, we will have to make things for ourselves. This threatens to be a huge problem.
Goods can now be produced with fewer people—thanks to technological progress and automation…and perhaps also automatization. This transformation allows the economy to direct more of the labor force to enhancing our lives in other ways, like, producing more tourism, more entertainment, advanced health care, and anything related to the Internet.
I don’t understand why people like you are clamoring to menial work, to work in coal mines and work on high rise construction. There are other ways to get cheap thrills.
lol IG
i do enjoy the way your mind works
”jobs in the tourist industry”—just to explore one facet of it–
can’t you get it into your head that the tourist industry functions on just one thing—avaialabity of surplus energy, and the people who produce that energy.—all the other ”pretty jobs” depend exclusively on that…
the tourist industry started with railway trains in the 1800s….trains ran on coal—
coal required miners—same thing, just a different system of propulsion.
again ig—i’m just thankful you don’t look after my investments….
HEADLINE NEWS . USA attacks Kharg Island .https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/14/us-attacks-military-sites-on-irans-kharg-island-home-to-vast-oil-facility
Note ; Attacks military infrastructure , not oil infrastructure .
Iran’s report re: US attacks in Kharg Island
According to Fars field reports, 2-3h ago, Kharg Island was subject to US attacks with more than 15 explosions on the island.
During these attacks, the US attempted to damage the Army’s air defense systems, the Joshan Naval Base, the airport control tower, and the Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC) helicopter hangar.
No matter how you slice it, something doesn’t add up—especially given that Kharg Island was targeted early in the conflict.
Even if the entire island were turned into molten lava from volcanic-level destruction, the actual hit to Iran’s oil export capacity would be limited . Anyone claiming that bombing or seizing Kharg would cripple the regime’s ability to keep oil flowing clearly doesn’t understand Iran’s oil infrastructure.
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2032610336788959255
TankerTrackers.com, Inc.
@TankerTrackers
·
7h
Before everyone gets carried away with the bombing of Kharg Island, there are a few things to know:
– It’s got a military presence like everything else in Iran. That’s what was struck. They’ll most likely get replaced ASAP from the mainland.
– It also has 55 crude oil storage tanks that can capacitate over 34 million barrels. They’re most likely unscathed.
Please read the whole post . Good analysis . https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2032613480411320623
If the escalation from Kharg Island leads the Houthis to pressure Bab el-Mandeb Strait, I don’t even want to think about the consequences for the oil market.
In that sense, the Iran war is not just a military conflict. It is a system shock to the global economy whose most important consequences may unfold in energy markets rather than on the battlefield.—– Art Berman
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2032650672777126107
Where do Houthis shop for their gear ?
Wasn’t it largely sourced from Iran and also delivered via their planes and boats? Well, these modes don’t exist today.
So, will RU-CHN supply them to Yemen or via another party ala Sudan, Ethiopia ? And Saudis just doing nothing not protecting Red Sea / Aden alternate route (of higher value now) ?
Doesn’t compute.
Sure Russia and China can supply the Houthis. They are providing all intel for Israel and NATO strikes after all. They are as engaged as the West is in Ukraine.
From Art:
“Kharg Island is not Iran’s oil lifeline
Much of the public discussion assumes that bombing or seizing Kharg Island would cripple Iran’s oil exports. That assumption is wrong. The island is an export hub, but most of the oil comes from the mainland through pipelines. Even when Kharg was heavily bombed during the Iran-Iraq War, exports continued at substantial levels. Recent strikes appear to have targeted military sites, not the storage tanks, loading facilities, or tanker operations that move crude. Kharg is important, but it is not a single point of failure.”
The markets are starting to look like the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis warns Bank of America
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2032639908972736520
Best case scenario is a global recession, worst case is a global depression. No one in the media talks about 35-40% of the world’s fertilizer comes from the ME. No fertilizer, no crops, no crops, no food. Expect starvation and famine in different parts of the world.
Bad news!
“Five Air Force Refueling Planes Struck In Iranian Missile Attack On Saudi Arabia -Reports that WH advisors debating off-ramp…”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-says-ayatollah-wounded-disfigured-while-other-iranian-leaders-defiantly-march
“Are we still booking holidays for later this year or simply assuming something catastrophic will happen before that?”
https://x.com/Ginger_Tucci/status/2032438230579044477
Pentagon Is Moving Additional Marines, Warships to the Middle East
Last Updated: March. 13, 2026 at 1:53pm ET LIVE
Updated 2 hours ago
Pentagon Is Moving Additional Marines, Warships to the Middle East
The Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships to the Middle East as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit, typically consisting of several warships and 5,000 Marines and sailors, the officials said.
—
So, we are moving closer to the resolution how much of capability around Hormuz there really is or not.. in other news there will be like two dozens of various ~heavy US bombers in the theater also..
5k marines vs a country of 90+ million … I don’t fancy those odds unless they’re equipped with a lot of nukes, and not even then.
That’s like on merry go around here..
The point is that 90+ million country was not long ago assumed as formidable regional power w. air defense, conventional navy, hidden speedboats, underground bunkers and lifts to surface silos, ..
Most of it all DOESN’t exist anymore as of TODAY..
Now we are in waiting mode, what kind of arsenal and how much copies of it remained, I still hold my position (backed by in situ evidence) they are only left with some short range stuff, which could be in months time dealt with (for the Hormuz passage) as said US ships are equipped with various rapid fire system (conventional ammo) against drones and cheap rocketry attacks..
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In today’s peace march through Tehran, there were at least two top govs officials also present in attendance with their security detail (shaved and clean wardrobe). So, there are still evidently more rounds of development into it as time goes by..
Did Hegseth get a hold of Junior’s account?
The U.S does not like death of their own troops especially when they are being led by cowards like trump and hegie. Another month and you are going to see a lot of systems freeze up. The U.S can’t leave without the oil and they can’t stay either.
Hegseth is a Harvard Graduate. Believe it or not.
I’m enjoying that you’re the lone contrarian here on the Iran war. I think you’re wrong to agree with the Trump admin’s analysis but I’m enjoying you’re right to argue for it. Personally I wonder if you’re bargaining with the situation given that Iran is still shooting off some awfully nice missiles and no doubt they would save some for the US Navy which won’t do the markets any favors, but the wondering is just an educated guess.
I’ll try reply here also to some threads bellow.
In terms of “bargaining” with the current situation, that’s close yet not exactly correct. There have been ~PO doomers for past span of 20+ yrs (me incl.) and also a few going all back to the mid 1970s. Along the route there have been several waves of increased and then waning interest in the topic, most people get bored – disillusioned very fast if their favorite (bet) scenario doesn’t pan out be it immediate full scale doom, US (as globo host) sudden change of course – leaving imperial status, etc.
The overall process is rather literally like water droplets hitting your skull while sitting fixed inside a chair at mental institution as years and decades flow away.
In specifics towards war with Iran “my case” has not been disproved – the salvos of long range missiles was replaced by the short range (and ~lower potency) ones. Iran can’t and won’t be resupplied in terms of significant armaments (or parts) while the domestic manuf capability has been decimated. There is no firm international coalition to support them, look how India let down the torpedoed crew.. Are Chinese subs going to retaliate in the Gulf eh? Of course not., China at best plays very long game, waiting-hoping adversaries rot from inside and that’s decades into the future.
In terms of robotics, it’s not ~10yrs away as in chimeric “maybe” vision. No, actually as we speak the big honchos in exec and board rooms of the proverbial Fortune500 are signing orders for these as crazy fast as possible, similarly in defense / govs. The deal here is that in ~10yrs span, tens of millions of jobs would be eliminated like that aka also case for depression forcing.
Similarly, why mentioning the space (Moon) thing at all? One of the key reasons why say Maduro was taken w.out fight or how Iran lost in just few days double digit% out of national income (spent on underground defense) over past several decades is in the space race. Opposition vigilantes, or insiders-traitors in Iran were given Starlink comm. devices to pin out (or merely confirm) various sites for targets, not mentioning the collected sheer sat visual databases over all the construction projects across entire Iran. Again, that’s NOT what happened say over jungles of Vietnam with porous border for smuggling to begin with, USSR+ and China providing arms and ammo in gigantic volumes.
On the Moon thing specifically, you don’t pay attention, it’s not about someone dreaming, it’s about contractors (not)reaching firm milestones, rockets and various modules being worked on (some stages basically finished now) and to be put into voyage ~2030, not perhaps and maybe mucking around 2035-45!
What they recently warned off, and could easily happen is a situation with stranded US crew half way or stuck on the Moon orbit, while Chinese at the very same time land, joyride, and return. Or say with a short delay in 2032 manage a way more successful mission. This will/could have profound impact on the overall drive, financing of larger space war efforts by the major players in the near / mid term horizon.
Thanks a lot Jr I appreciate the elaboration and love the process metaphor!
I would argue that we have some evidence that no access denial (AD) system really works. not the western ones of course, but apparently also not the Iranian Russian or Chinese either. Those airplanes should not be able to get that close, or so we were told by the experts. And where is the US Navy? If there is just one ship in the Gulf, how comes it has not been sunk?
Iran has not acquired contemporary (top spec) AD systems from CHN-RU, nor developed their own to needed quality-quantity.
Plus new tactics issued, e.g. Israelis supposedly fired from airplanes near border (upgraded conventional) into the stratosphere and then let it drop in ~vertical mode gaining almost hypersonic speeds on to ground targets. So, very likely even their own domestic system would not have eliminated it.
Simply, various (out of the box) tricks used for the occasion. The Iranian plan was sort of 1980-1990s level compatible, but horribly outdated for now.
What Iran will do now is basically downgrade “in desperation” and fall down to Lebanon level like strikes, occasionally – locally destructive, but only annoying in the general impact.
How does it affect Hormuz traffic long term?
Do Gulfies pony up resources to move – diversify “boarding” infrastructure to the Red sea ports instead ? Or just wait it out ?
BREAKING: TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL LAST A VERY LONG TIME
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2032589787605909629
Article by Lance Roberts, quoting Dawn Fitzpatrick, gives insights into why the private credit sector is failing.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fitzpatrick-soros-cio-warns-of-a-reckoning/
Soros CEO & CIO Warns of a Reckoning
Dawn Fitzpatrick, CEO of Soros Fund Management told attendees at Bloomberg Invest this week that a “massive culling” of alternative asset managers is coming. And that the industry has no one to blame but itself.
The Liquidity Reckoning
Fitzpatrick’s comments crystallize a slow-motion crisis that has been building since the 2022 rate-hiking cycle. What seemed irrelevant at the time has now made the exit environment suddenly hostile. The traditional private equity model was simple. Buy a company, leverage it, improve operations over a 3- to 5-year holding period, then sell or IPO it. However, that model has stretched into something unrecognizable. Median hold periods, which stood at 4.2 years in 2010, ballooned to 6.8 years by 2023. They are getting even longer since. Furthermore, the asset class defined by its ability to generate compounding cash-on-cash returns has increasingly become a warehouse of paper gains.
The numbers are stark. According to MSCI research, US private equity funds delivered annualized returns of just 5.8% between 2022 and 2025. That was less than half the S&P 500’s 11.6% over the same period. For investors who sacrificed liquidity and accepted illiquidity premiums, the trade has spectacularly misfired.
Fitzpatrick’s diagnosis wasn’t limited to returns. The real crisis, she argued, is structural. The pensions, endowments, wealth funds, and family offices that seed private vehicles have been caught in a vice they made. For the last decade, they aggressively shifted portfolios toward private assets in pursuit of higher returns. Now, many find themselves overexposed, illiquid, and unable to meet future capital calls without selling positions at significant discounts.
This is the so-called “denominator effect.” That is where falling public equity valuations inflate the proportional weight of private holdings in a portfolio. The result was widespread overallocation across pensions and endowments during the 2022 public market selloff.
Another issue:
Private Equity Cash Returns to Limited Partners Have Collapsed
Industry distributions as % of total PE AUM, annual (2018-2025). Distribution rate fell from ~ 22% pre-2020 to a record-low 7.8% in 2025.
The $1.8 trillion market that has absorbed enormous capital flows over the last decade is now sitting on an underappreciated time bomb.
The concern centers on a mechanism that has received relatively little public attention: The banks that are lending against private credit funds’ own portfolios. As the value of private credit loans gets reassessed, whether by rising defaults, falling collateral values, or increased regulatory scrutiny on the banks themselves, those lenders could begin demanding more collateral from the credit funds.
The Contagion Issue: FITZPATRICK’S MARGIN-CALL FEEDBACK LOOP
Step 1: Bank scrutiny forces loan reassessment on private credit portfolios.
Step 2: Funds must post additional collateral or sell assets.
Step 3: Forced asset sales create price discovery that depresses NAVS across the sector.
Step 4: Further collateral calls follow.
“If you start seeing pain or scrutiny on the banks on that lending side, I think that could be a harbinger of worse things to come.” — Dawn Fitzpatrick
For Fitzpatrick, the next 18 to 24 months represent a painful but ultimately necessary correction. The industry that, in her view, over-promised and under-delivered on the most fundamental commitment any investment manager makes: returning capital. The macro backdrop: geopolitical turbulence, AI-driven disruption to software valuations, and an uncertain rate environment, amplifies the pressure without being its cause. The cause, she argues, is structural. There were too many managers, too much capital raised at peak valuations, too many continuation vehicles propping up stale assets, and a performance record that, net of fees, no longer justifies the illiquidity premium being charged.
“Dawn Fitzpatrick, CEO of Soros Fund Management told attendees at Bloomberg Invest this week that a “massive culling” of alternative asset managers is coming.”
Sounds like Adolf Hitler.
If we’re gonna start “culling” lets go for the ones who consume the most.
A band-aid to help current problems:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bessent-greenlights-sale-russian-oil-sea-promote-stability-global-energy-markets
In a statement late Thursday on X, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. will allow countries to purchase Russian crude oil already at sea. The move aims to temporarily boost global supply availability, as the IEA warned earlier that the Middle East conflict has sparked one of the worst energy shocks on record.
“To increase the global reach of existing supply, @USTreasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” Bessent said.
He continued, “This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction.”
This may do more to fix oil problems than other things. But it will be hard to stop this change, I would think. The world needs Russian oil, even at a high price.
”Gemini A.I. states it will take 6 months for total collapse of industrial civilization if the straights are closed for over 3 months, so this year.” ?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/12/ai-predicts-78-days-to-cactus-with-hormuz-closed/
The Strait of Hormuz is selectively closed, not closed completely.
It is Europe, Japan, others on the US-Israel side. Thus, it will tend to be the currently “rich” countries that are hurt hardest, I expect. The amount of the reduction in oil supply will be lower than originally forecast.
The Maximum Power Principle tells us that the world economy will not collapse too rapidly. Parts of it will go down faster than others.
There are reports that the USS Abraham took a direct hit from Iran and the US has confirmed that all crew members are dead from an Iranian direct hit over western Iraq as well.
This is what MSN is reporting:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/us-aircraft-carrier-uss-abraham-lincoln-damaged-after-missile-attack-claims-iran/ar-AA1YwEjm
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy claimed on Friday that the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln had been significantly damaged after a ballistic missile and drone attack. Iran also said that the warship was forced to retreat from the Gulf waters after the strike.
Washington has, however, denied the claim, saying the American aircraft carrier “continues to support Operation Epic Fury”.
According to US media reports, an Iranian vessel sailed too close to the aircraft carrier, but the American troops opened fire on it. It is yet not clear whether the ship was hit. . .
The USS Abraham Lincoln is a nuclear-powered Nimitz-class aircraft carrier. It has a long history of deployments, primarily supporting US interests in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.
so it did go through the straits eventually.
Not that I’m aware of drb. Gail’s link appears to be referring to the Lincoln intrigue from a week ago.
But where is the Lincoln now? in the Gulf or outside the Gulf and a good 1000 km into the ocean?
Hideaway contributing positively to the Big Nuclear Scare lol. If you don’t think you’re gonna be dead within a year, then the BNS ain’t over yet.
The squares of the world are why we have civilization in the first place.
Folks are leaving the US and remunciating citizenship while casually posting slurs about white devils and these warmongers worse than Dick Cheney. Can get George Bush clips of Him mispronouncing Nuclear? BNS and Undenial living together.. mass hysteria!! The Playbook.. which one is Andrew Cuomo, how about Fauci and who is playing the Scarf Queen?? Cue the Ivy League dissidents eschewing Lockdowns for Focused protection of vulnerable populations. Weather Channel models plotting Nuclear storm Cesium?
You’ve stumped me regarding that cast of characters lol. But I do know that the word warmonger is FINALLY going to the 2026 Word Of The Year. Seven long years after TG popularized it.
Another issue when Iran only lets boats pass through the Straight of Hormuz that it chooses:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ten-maersk-ships-trapped-persian-gulf
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has effectively trapped 10 Maersk ships in the Persian Gulf, its chief executive said.
In separate interviews with CNN and the Wall Street Journal, Vincent Clerc said the Danish carrier’s ships “cannot get out,” are “stuck in the Upper Gulf” and cannot leave the region.
As a safety measure, Clerc said the vessels have been grouped offshore and away from ports under attack. At least one ship is under contract to the U.S. government’s Military Sealift Command, according to data on maritime identification websites.
Even if a ceasefire allowed vessel traffic to begin moving, Clerc said it would take a week to 10 days for the world’s second-largest liner (MAERSK-B.CO) to resume normal operations.
Clerc’s comments underscore the frustrations of shipping lines who have requested and repeatedly been denied naval escorts by the Trump administration. Carriers have been told in briefings that the Strait is still too dangerous for transit.
I wonder how many “lost shipping hours / days” there are due to container ships being stuck, meaning they can’t complete other transit jobs / contracts.
I’ve read that there are 137 waiting to get out whilst the strait of hormuz tracker lists a total of 750 stranded vessels (which I assume are those mostly waiting to get in).
Are you regularly following the trackers All is Dust?
I keep an eye on the below, but only really looking at tankers.
Yesterday there was a line stretching form Kuhestak(Iran) to Sohar(Oman).
Today they’re all going the other way and almost every single one I checked registered Sohar as last destination(yesterday) so don’t appear to just be hanging around waiting.
Similar patterns have been happening for days. I believe Iran had this planned(with Oman and others) and there’s a lot of transfer going on, as tankers keep entering the Gulf of Oman(there is only one place to go from there), but the amount at anchor has reduced massively from the early days.
https://www.vesselfinder.com/
If you check a different tracker, is it showing the same as I see?
So, you are saying that tankers seem to be getting through? Perhaps they are all Iranian, or close friends of Iran?
Don’t see much going through, but the movement now, compared to the first few days, seems to suggest something is going on.
I don’t know enough(anything) about procedures to tell if it’s at odds with what’s expected, but I doubt that so many would do such long journeys(174 miles), just to keep the engines running. There were what looked like holding patterns when I first started checking, but that’s all changed on the Gulf of Oman side, but still happening in the Persian Gulf.
It could be spoof positioning(at least in part) for all I know.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2032448000761495582?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
“If Iran allows China and India oil through the Strait, that’s more than half of normal oil traffic already (7mmb/d). Throw in the Saudi East-West pipeline for redirection (another 7mb/d) and the blockade suddenly shrinks a lot.”
It is not 20% of oil cut off, it will be a lot less than this. Countries are encouraged to become friendly to Iran, if they want their oil to get through the Straight
Also related:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-italy-open-talks-iran-after-indias-request-scramble-open-hormuz
In Scramble To Open Up Hormuz, France & Italy Open Talks With Iran After India’s Request
Amid very confused and mixed messaging coming from Washington over the status and future fate of Hormuz oil transit, the EU is trying its hand at a solution.
France and Italy have opened ‘tentative’ talks with Iran seeking to negotiate a deal to guarantee safe passage for their tankers through vital strait which remains a crucial chokepoint for stalled global crude transit, the Financial Times reports Friday, citing people briefed on the efforts.
This comes as US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a Friday morning Pentagon briefing there is “no clear evidence that Iran has laid mines” in the Strait.
The understanding the Indian boats are being let through seems to be erroneous, according to a comment by raviuppal4:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/comment-page-4/#comment-502333
Everyone is mistaking a request by the Indian government as permission from the Iranian government . Iran has said ” No ” . Many other governments have also requested safe passage . Request is free .
Can you remind us what India did to anger Iran? Is it just the bibi visit?
What did India do ?
1. Defense deals with Tel Aviv .
2. Modi was in Israel just one day before the war . Did Modi know ?
3. Withdrawal from the devolpment of Chabar port under pressure from Trump .
4. No condemnation of the school girl bombing .
5. Most important . No condolence message on the death of Khameni . Modi has made no statement till date . To add insult to injury the government sent a low level foreign ministry official to sign the condolence book at the embassy and that too 6 days after the death . This was the ultimate insult .
6. Backed the UN resolution condemning Iran .
It seems that they will have to do penance. Russia too is redirecting vessels, and they are very exposed to LNG.
Ravi don’t tiptoe. This is from Ai
Experts, human rights organizations, and opposition leaders have frequently accused Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of promoting anti-Muslim sentiment, pursuing a Hindu nationalist agenda, and using divisive rhetoric. While Modi and his government have denied these allegations, claiming their policies are aimed at development for all, observers say anti-Muslim sentiment has risen significantly since 2014.
CNN
CNN
+3
More relevant to present situation, was this
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/india-s-silence-on-us-sinking-of-iran-s-vessel–an-embarrass
It wasn’t just their silence, it was the fact that they sent no one, in answer to the distress signal, after inviting the Iranians and knowing that the US(breaking all rules of war) was leaving the survivors to drown. Sri Lanka had to do it all. Modi knew it was going to happen. Modi should hang.
Obviously Italy is a low hanging fruit, so the Iranians would be better off saying no. Even if this only triggers a visit by Meloni to Moscow, it will be a result. Moscow can then barter something to the Iranians. France needs to collapse so no as well.
From one of ravi’s links
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/here-and-there/content-49536
I’m afraid that is the way the rich world is headed!
Runway , I did not tiptoe . The fact how the BJP govt treats the Muslims is well known to the Islamic countries . Pakistan has several times brought this issue at the meetings of OIC ( Organisation Of Islamic Countries) but no one acts .All want to sell their oil . This is not an issue in the Iran decision .
FF , yes I missed this one . Thanks for the addition .
P.S : Oman , Egypt and Kuwait have given him the highest honor state awards that can be given to a foreigner. UAE , KSA also second highest . Treatment of Indian Muslims is secondary .
Thought this was cool find, know MG would like it too, right in his backyard.
A Czech Man Used This Stone in His Barn’s Foundations. It Turned Out to Be a Rare Bronze Age Spearhead Mold
The rectangular object dates to around 1350 B.C.E. and was likely created by members of the Central European Urnfield culture
Christian Thorsberg – Correspondent
March 12, 2026 4:07 p.m.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/a-czech-man-used-this-stone-in-his-barns-foundations-it-turned-out-to-be-rare-bronze-age-spearhead-mold-180988339/
After analyzing the find, researchers identified the stone as a millennia-old artifact used to cast Bronze Age weaponry. Nearly nine inches long, the item—made from a volcanic rock called rhyolite tuff—dates to around 1350 B.C.E.
“It is a casting mold, technically called a matrix, for a bronze spearhead,” Milan Salaš, an archaeologist at the Moravian Museum in Brno, tells Radio Prague International’s Ruth Fraňková. “As we can see, it’s a fairly regular rectangular stone slab. On the dividing surface of the mold, on one side, there is a very precisely shaped and very well-preserved negative impression used for casting a bronze spearhead.”
These types of weapons were common in the Carpathian region during the Late Bronze Age. Named after the Carpathian Mountains, which stretch across Central Europe from Austria in the west to Serbia in the south, the region includes a small section of the Czech Republic. The igneous rock used to make the mold likely originated farther east, indicating that “long-distance transport of raw materials used for the production of stone molds could reach tens to hundreds of kilometers,” write the authors in the study.
That was interesting the stone itself was imported.
Thanks, that underlines how Vienna (south of it much better climate) was habitable 1-3k yrs BC..
When I was a child I collected piecies of blackened ceramic vessels on a field in the hills or fossils in the stones. I dreamed about finding the remains of a monastery on a hill above my village that should be there according to a legend. I was searching that place last year, visiting the places of that area that I had not visited before, but I could not find anything.
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-12-fafo
Thanks! This is a very long and very disturbing update. FAFO means “reckless or disrespectful behavior will lead to consequences.”
A few excerpts:
Trump, the same day, told reporters the war had “already been won”. That the straits were “in very good shape”. That America had “knocked out most of their boats”. Larijani’s response: “Wars cannot be won with a few tweets, Trump”.
Over Israel, 717 Home Front Command alerts triggered by midday – and that’s without counting the previous night’s barrage. Alerts, not impacts. But 717 sirens in half a day tells you everything about the state of what’s left of the early warning network.
Iranian cluster munitions reportedly struck outside Jerusalem’s Old City, near Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. The three holiest sites of three religions, give or take, in one blast radius. Symbolism aside, the targeting accuracy on display is the story. These aren’t random launches hoping to land somewhere useful. They’re arriving precisely where someone chose to put them.
Beirut is being Gazified.
Hezbollah launched a named campaign for the first time in this war: “Operation Severe Storm”. Forty-three operations in a single day. A hundred-plus rockets in one barrage at Haifa, Galilee, and the Golan. Israeli Channel 14 admitted Hezbollah had “shifted from defence to offence, carrying out preemptive strikes with tremendous firepower”. When a military organisation names its operations, it’s not defending anymore. It’s advertising.
India’s Foreign Minister called Iran’s Foreign Minister and asked permission to transit an international waterway. The world’s fifth-largest economy, nuclear-armed, with the fourth most powerful military on Earth, called Tehran and requested a waiver. And got one. The tanker Shenlong arrived in Mumbai loaded with Saudi crude, having sailed straight through Hormuz. Two more Indian tankers – the Pushpak and Parimal – also passed.
Bangladesh secured the same deal.
China already had it. The strait isn’t closed. It’s a members-only club. And the membership criteria is: not being allied with the people who started the war. Although India?? Note to self: worth keeping an eye on that.
Saudi Aramco is negotiating to buy drone interceptors from Ukraine.
The US has two months of rare earth materials remaining. Two months. The radars being destroyed across the Gulf require yttrium. China holds 98% of global production and banned exports (link). The destruction is, in practical terms, permanent.
” Misreporting “India’s Foreign Minister called Iran’s Foreign Minister and asked permission to transit an international waterway. The world’s fifth-largest economy, nuclear-armed, with the fourth most powerful military on Earth, called Tehran and requested a waiver. And got one. The tanker Shenlong arrived in Mumbai loaded with Saudi crude, having sailed straight through Hormuz. Two more Indian tankers – the Pushpak and Parimal – also passed.
Iran said “No ” to the Foreign minister and said ” No ” to Prime Minister Modi who called Perzeskian today . India betrayed Teheran and Iran is angry . Meanwhile problems in the Indian economy have mutiplied . In this week exports of $ 50 billion were cancelled . No shipping space . How bad ? Today the govt announced a financial emergency fund to stabilise the economy . https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/fm-sitharaman-announces-rs-1-lakh-crore-economic-stabilisation-fund-amid-global-shocks-1943587
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/modi-talks-with-irans-president-as-tankers-stall-in-hormuz
India will be in terrible shape without oil and natural gas coming through the Gulf.
The idea that France and Italy can sail through is probably not realistic, either.
Thanks!
I find the author’s mine theory poorly thought out. I assume that Iran has laid a limited number of mines in order to further narrow the Strait towards the Iranian shores. Duh.
Trump Lockdowns 2.0 Incoming?
Beware the Ides of March …
https://x.com/ShannonJoyRadio/status/2032200365299388508
We hope not, but anything is possible.
Fast Eddy thinks so too
desperate times call for desperate measures,it looks like the elders have decided that they are taking the Great Depression optionwhich was talked about many years ago at one of their meetings but not embarked upon because they wanted everything to stay as they wished it to go. But obviously time is short we may have as little as four years going by the agenda 2030 date we keep on hearing about. What this means to me is if all their plans fail we will all be forcefully wiped off the planet probably through force of vaccination another words the Killer jab.
I know some commenters here are cheerleading Canada’s MAID program as a compassionate response to helping terminally ill people in great pain to die in peace by “putting them to sleep.” But it is also exactly the sort of program “the elders” might smile on as a pretext for forcefully wiping people they consider “useless eaters” off the planet with a minimum of fuss.
The numbers of people MAIDed in Canada are still low at around 5% of all deaths for 2025, but it’s early days yet.
Jessica Rose writes:
As Rupa Subramanya points out in the video below (at x), MAID rules (government-assisted suicide) have been changed recently. Instead of the 10-day reflection period – given to ensure that the people who filled out the forms to kill themselves with government help are sure that they want to die and not just having a bad run – these people can now be killed on the SAME DAY.
So it’s not just that 1/20 deaths in Canada now are government-assisted “suicides”, they’ve ramped it up even more by “allowing” same-day offing.
https://jessicar.substack.com/p/maid-in-a-day
https://x.com/TheFP/status/2029946333805621528
I understand that euthanasia has also spread to some Euro countries.
I’m not aware of anybody here cheerleading MAID. Jessica Rose was a tabloid trash lunatic during the plandemic and she’s being a tabloid trash lunatic about this. Whether you ultimately agree with assisted suicide or not — me, I really don’t give a fuck, welcome to civilization at the brink of collapse, these MAID applicants are just the early adopters of wishing one was dead — you might just read through the Wikipedia page on the subject in order to see that the legislation as it stands represents a pretty high level systems analysis of how to carry out the law in an ethical, systematic way.
Do I think suicide should be legal? Yes. Anybody who doesn’t believe that believes in state totalitarianism.
Do I think state assisted suicide should be legal? No, because I don’t believe in the Santa Claus State, but assisted suicide is entirely consistent with a nanny state (all developed states are nanny states) that believes in human rights, so maybe you can try to see why some people who don’t share your politics might think that MAID is cutting edge state policy in service of a fundamental human right.
Avoidance of suffering under natural law is the foundational impulse of civilization. Who are you to say that people shouldn’t be able to ask the State to help end their suffering that they’ve decided makes life not worth living anymore? Or just don’t want to be a drag on the system? Even Gail agrees that spending hundreds of thousands or more on keeping people alive is insane.
This topic is just another predicament of the excessive complexity.
Well, one person’s tabloid trash is another person’s cutting-edge journalism. And one person’s devastatingly witty killer argument is another person’s pathetic add hominem logical fallacy.
But who am I to judge? Many of my cognitive biases are obvious even to me. I don’t trust myself to bang down the gavel on other people. As Tony Hancock said in his parody of Twelve Angry Men: “We are gathered together to sit in judgment on a fellow human being. Surely we must first judge ourselves”.
You can shoot the messenger all you want, but in his instance, I am not interested in your opinion of Jessica Rose’s “lunacy”—with the implication that it invalidates anything she talks about. Perhaps some other day?
Also, I’ve witnessed the Machine trashing the reputations of so many good people who didn’t toe the line that I’ve lost count. I much prefer to play the ball rather than the man.
This is the main reason I tend to get agitated when Norman begins so many of his comments with “Trump, Trump, Trump, MAGA-nut, MAGA-nut, MAGA-nut, God-botherer, God-botherer, God-botherer.” Ad hominem ad nauseam, as the Romans used to say. The man is so obsessed with personalities that he often ignores issues—which are the real meat and potatoes of what we are supposed to be talking about at OFW. It’s fundamentally what makes us different to the New York Post, Vanity Fair, the Hollywood Reporter, or the National Enquirer.
And in this instance, the issue I am interested in is how Canada’s MAID is apparently morphing from a compassionate intervention to end suffering along the lines of what Jack Kevorkian—another good person who also had his reputation thoroughly trashed, and spent eight years in jail for first-degree murder and the delivery of a controlled substance—was proposing, into a system that encourages or even coerces vulnerable people who are going through tough periods or perhaps just having a “bad” day into making life-ending decisions.
If you can’t see how evil that system is, well, I guess that’s just you at this point in your life. Forty-nine years old, independent, healthy, and brimming with vigor, grace, and self confidence, you can’t imagine yourself as a target for something like MAID.
But let this old boomer tell you something scary: like everyone else, you are only temporarily abled. If you live long enough, your time of vulnerability will come. And when it arrives, you will appreciate having people looking after you—including those in social services—who have your own best interests at heart rather than who are incentivized to put you on a conveyer belt to prompt life functions terminated status.
When the orderlies strap you into your bed and man in the white coat carrying the syringe approaches you and says, “Relax Mr. Reante. This won’t hurt a bit”, perhaps you’ll remember that long ago your old mate Tim warned you this might happen if we didn’t nip this euthanasia fad in the bud pretty damn quick.
Fine comment Tim. You know I love you. One of the only differences between you and me is that you still want to fight for civilization whereas civilization is dead to my heart. That doesn’t mean that the people and every other living thing imprisoned within civilization is dead to my heart, but the fighting is dead to my heart because the seeing precludes the fighting. Bargaining is another way of framing the fighting.
If you can’t see the loaded language tabloid nature of Jessica Rose’s writing, then you are not feeling yourself when you are reading it. That said, is there an element of ideological mass formation going on in MAID culture, as with the juvenile transgender surgery culture. No doubt. No doubt Tim. There’s money to be made in mass formation when your paycheck depends on it. But I don’t feel your pain anymore because I don’t fuck political causes. That’s why I close every tenth comment of mine in ad nauseum fashion with the phrase, Welcome to Politics.
When I’m old and decide it’s time to stop living I’m just going to stop eating and drinking like any real, free living thing on this planet does, because that’s the fearless country way. That is what one of my best friends here did at 64. He had previously told me a couple times with urgency iin his eyes that he needed work. He was a retired welder by trade. It wasn’t money he needed. He needed work. He needed meaning. He was lonely. But I couldn’t let him just weld shit for me for nothing and he already had like 20hrs of barter time that I owed him sitting on his whiteboard in his shop which he was going to use up running my tractor on his place come springtime. So I had him build me a headache rack for the Ford ranger for cash but after that I was kind of tapped out and he went past the tipping point and stopped eating and drinking. Wouldn’t even drink the goat milk hot chocolate I brought him. One day a couple weeks after he quit on life, I apologized to him for not being as good a friend to him as he was to me. A couple weeks after that he was about two thirds of his weight lying dead on the the living room floor. I was the last one to see him alive two days before. That’s how a real animal dies. At home and on its own terms.No morphine and nobody making money off you either. I got a week old lamb out in the old log store right now who’s life battery is running out just like my buddy Warren’s did. Mama talks to it but the lamb ain’t keeping up. My wife would rather I put the lamb down but I don’t believe in that so like I said in my last reply I don’t believe in MAID anymore than you do but unlike Jessica Rose it’s because I don’t believe in euthanasia. No doubt Jessica would go pay to have her dog or cat put down ‘when the time came,’ so she should spare me the fucking crocodile tears.
Great comment, Reante. Reading it brought a few tears to my eyes.
Remember, I’m a sentimental old bugger!
Some of us do need to work—to be doing something useful—to be on the job—in order to have a purpose in living. Others are happy sitting by the river with a fishing rod or walking around on a golf course.
One of our two local roofers—they were cousins who inherited their respective businesses from fathers who inherited before them from the same grandfather and split it into two independent businesses. Since the turn of the century, the amount of roofing work has been declining apace, and so there was not enough to go around, and one of these cousins, approaching the age of 60 when the pandemic was implemented, was greatly stressed and disheartened by the lack of work and money.
While retiling a roof in 2020, he slipped and fell, landing on a flower bed, and breaking a leg.
After recovering, he went back to work, when work was available, and then in 2020, while working on a second floor roof, he slipped and fell again. On this second occasion, he landed on something harder, and died.
I’m pretty sure both falls were accidental, but I assume lack of concentration and his general disenchantment with life played a role. Had he been busier and making more money, he would have been much more on top of his game. He was at that time of life when he was still too young and too poor to retire, but too old to change careers and learn to code. Perhaps falling off the roof was a solution that emerged from his subconscious struggle?
As for putting to sleep pets to ease their suffering, attitudes in the East are vastly different to those in the West. Here in Japan, we have traditionally let them die naturally while keeping them warm, fed and as comfortable as possible. We don’t take our old dog sout to the barn and finish them off with a shotgun.
My wife is far less sentimental than I am, and agrees with you on euthanasia. I have had the vet perform MAID on two cats, both of which were youngsters who were suffering from cancer. But for the rest of our cats—about two dozen over the years—I have let nature take its cause.
Sometimes, this has included sick cats that have disappeared in order to die, including one old tomcat who walked out into a January snowstorm like Captain Oates and whose carcass wasn’t discovered until the following spring.
In the case of our old Labrador George, who was dying from kidney failure, and was basically sleeping on my futon most of the time, when he began making distressing noises, I arranged to take him to the vet, but he died as we were loading him on a stretcher into the back of the car. I interpreted that as a message from him that he preferred to die at home.
Since George departed, we have been musing about whether to adopt another doggie. On the plus side, they motivate us to go walkies, and if they like us, they are a lot more faithful and affectionate than most moggies. But on the downside, they need feedin’ and fussin’ and they shed a lot of fur. By law they have to be vaccinated, which I object to. And you have to worry about them and deal with their inevitable aging and death. If I were to adopt a young dog now, I would have to be looking after it and letting it look after me until I was over eighty. Even with continuing BAU, that would be a tall order.
If the right English Shepherd came along, I might take the bait. But I’m not interested in anything miniature or anything that yaps too much.
Thanks that was fun. Yes our County deputy in charge of animal control a thorn in my side. There’s a green postcard from her behind a magnet on our fridge that I’ve been ignoring for a couple years detailing overdue rabies shots. For past rounds she repeatedly phoned me and made me an offer I couldn’t refuse. Has she given up this time? Or has funding been cut? The only reason she knew about my unlicensed dogs in the first place is because they got out one too many times and somebody called her to come and impound them, though I got to them first and was loading them in the truck when she pulled up.
“Everybody wants to fuck the cause” came from the Broken Social Scene song, “Cause=Time.”
You come in, check my time
You’ve got fornication crimes
I’ve seen your hope on television
Where you’ve been, you were not were
They’ve got tricycles in skirts
This is a mouth that needs religion
And they all want to love the cause
Because they all need to be the cause
They all want to fuck the cause
So take me down, down through this
Kill the common law that missed
This is the blood I love to share
Little pistols and companion halls
Desperation tentacles
I’ve been alone since ’89
We’ve got a menstruating disguise
They know the three completes the five
This is a church that should believe
And they all want to free the cause
Because they all need to dream a cause
They all need to be a cause
You’ve got all and it’s
Pretty good, but I
Seem to be in disbelief
You come in, check my time
You’ve got fornication crimes
I’ve seen your death on television
Cue immortal childlike times
Separation is divine
Here is a strike beneath your knees
And they all want to love the cause
Because they all need to be the cause
They all want to fuck the cause
Take me down, down through this
Kill the white within the bliss
Here is a waiting room that wants to save your life
And they all want to love the cause
They all need to be the cause
They all want to dream a cause
They all need to fuck the cause
https://youtu.be/GikWha5TC94
Various people on this forum and elsewhere were almost sure that TPTB had a ‘cunning plan’ to release another virus at ‘the right time’. It would make the jabbed critically ill and release them from their worldly cares. Even Fast Eddy now says he’s unsure what’s going on.
Perhaps still too early, not all the AI data centers nor factory lines for humanoid robots have been finished up to this point. Then there perhaps will be an incentive to say first step in ~20-40% pop delete, depending on locale.
There is also that ongoing moon thing race v2.0 ~2030 now also supposedly with the Chinese competing as well. That’s not inexpensive ~frivolity which needs appreciative audience.
You’re a mess Jr.
Not my position simply descriptive about what’s going on there.
I hope you did not over look the fact CHN already has army robot units with marksman capability (although 4legged framesize). The US is drooling over – and moves in that direction as well (on its own pace).. That’s sadly what is in store for us just in 5-10yrs! robo goons dispatched on the peons.
The Moon thing is important chiefly in the tech race domain as ~NASA has been lately issuing warnings about not everything going smoothly, plus pre-warnings in elevated risk of stranded crews in those various traveling stages in space etc..
You like to recreationally play the field in a self-contradictory fashion instead of focus on a unified systems theory. I find it tiresome. Some might like that to one function of a paid disruptor, not that you yourself are one.
There are several layers to it.
Chiefly I was getting very annoyed from the overall mass consensus of even seasoned commentariat here that if Don = (predictably) badly delivered outcome hence the Iran war must necessarily follow the same pathway! Exactly not much on personal as systemic theory basis you alluded to.. Someone had to voice the caution here, nobody volunteered I did it at cost to my rePUTation, lolz.
Further on the [ unified systems theory ] – the global situation has been very fluid in this very decade, that we should not rush to premature declaratory victories in terms of finding that correct model for all this mess so far..
Appreciate it JR. By unified I really just mean consistent in the general systems theory of collapse. I don’t mean people becoming unified in believing my Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. I’m not here to proselytize, I’m just here to provide argumentation.
My point to you is just that the last couple weeks have cast a serious pall over a techno-robot dystopian future, for obvious reasons. Iran refusing to open Hormuz until Israel no longer exists anymore and the US bases are all gone effectively turns theories on future standing armies of robots into theories about future stranded assets, let alone robot soldiers being built 10 years from now and moon missions too.
Unless one side of the war collapses pretty soon, robots and moon missions are probably going out the window wouldn’t you say? I just think it makes sense to adapt our narratives in concert with structural events even if that means doubling back again as the result of unexpected reversals. Shelving increasingly improbable scenarios until further notice rather than repeating them as if nothing’s changed.
jr—stop watching repeats of terminator
It’s very true actually.
The human size (or torso) robots are already operating in tasks in various assembly lines, warehouses etc. replacing human labor, costs $15-20k per copy. And those war-specialized basically wolf-hound (4legged) torso with automatic rifle and network coordination have been also deployed by now, and rapidly evolving further in prototyping labs..
Obviously, in off-grid setting they are limited in time-span of operation and so on.
jr—i will try to explain—-simply….to help your comprehension…
it is possible to buil a machine to carry out a function—car factories are full of them.
100 years ago no one would have imagined such a thing..
you can build a machine to shoot a weapon
what you cant do, is build a car factory robot, that, of itself, can decide to become a military robot.
a farmer friend of mine has a tractor which has been gadgetized, in a highly specialised way—so that its now worth literally £1m. it effectively runs itself around his fields, doing its thing. it cannot stray beyond fixed parameters
(as long as diesel feeds it)
what that tractor will never do, of itself, is become a battlefield tank, even though it costs as much, no matter how much diesel is put into it…
another friend’s automower will never be promoted to auto-breakfast maker, or auto chauffeur.
terminator is just fantasy i’m afraid
The jab vector had an SV40 sequence, which is oncogenic if it gets integrated, but that might take decades to play out, if at all.
I wonder if Eddy is still talking about the Van der Bosche mutation, hah.
I wonder if Ivan is still talking about microbiology as if he has the foggiest idea what he’s talking about while at the same time knocking Eddy for doing the same thing?
LOL. Man tells a synthetic biology expert that he knows nothing about synthetic biology or viruses.
i’ll say. he may need a better mental map of the site.
A vector in vaccinology means the active ingredient. In the case of the ‘covid’ vaccine, the vector is the marketed mRNA component. SV40 is not part of any of the various mRNA sequences on the market. SV40, according to even the controlled opposition like yourself, is genetic debris contamination, intentional or not.
My belief, as previously stated, is that SV40 is obviously going to be in the vials because the vials are broad spectrum tumor exosome cultures (hence warpspeed, all you gotta do is grow them) and tumor exosomes are widely known to deal in SV40. Duh.
So Mr Expert ivan, would you like to restate your claim so that it is actually a structurally valid claim, so that we can then move on to whatever it is that you meant to say that will also be false biology.
you wanna be careful eddie doesnt come back again, and insist on recounting his inadequacies, and—er—shortcomings….
You said “A vector in vaccinology means the active ingredient”
No, the vector in this context refers to the DNA plasmid encoding the mRNA. There’s no sense at all in writing entire paragraphs of invented nonsense when you can just google/AI the following and you will be immediately fact-checked haha:
“A vector in synthetic biology is a DNA molecule—typically a plasmid, virus, or artificial chromosome—used as a vehicle to artificially carry foreign genetic material into a host cell. It enables the replication, expression, or manipulation of the inserted DNA (transgene) within the host organism, such as bacteria, yeast, or animal”
Regarding the point on vector, I’ll give you that one, but nobody here believes that the SV40 molecules were an integral part of the vaxx efficacy, so you would have needed to give more context for anyone to understand what you were saying. Nobody that I’m aware of has claimed that SV40 is being used as a vehicle for the mRNA efficacy. As far as I recall the levels of SV40 are low, which is why I along with the controlled opposition, as I recall, referred to them as debris. The controlled opposition only freaked out that oncogenic ‘monkey virus’ was, perhaps intentionally in their minds, contaminating the vaxxes, because ‘monkey virus’ means Monster to them, but I absolutely do not recall them talking about SV40 being an integral active ingredient in the vaxxes. So I expect you to correct me on that if I’m wrong. But if you don’t correct me then we can assume you got that badly wrong, after which we can move onto your multidecadal false biological claim. You may or may not be a synthetic biology expert but you are not an expert in microbiology — a self-taught one or otherwise — because that is not synthetic biology.
IIRC, SV40 was on the reverse strand relative to the spike gene. It’s not intended to be in the vaccine, but many claimed there was DNA contamination. To whatever extent the vector contaminated the vaccines, you would end up with SV40 in the injections.
I don’t know why SV40 was in the vector; the non-conspiratorial rationale is that they simply use a multi-purpose vector that is also useful for mammalian cell culture, which is reasonable in a research context, but an obviously terrible idea in the context of vaccine production.
According to the official narrative the mRNA were not reverse strands made with the S gene from the supposed SARS-CoV-2. They were synthesized from e coli plasmids, so the contamination would have come from that process.
Biology doesn’t work such that stray SV40s are going to cause cancer, and certainly not decades down the line. Maybe if a bunch of SV40 entered a single cell it could become cancerous but that’s not going to give someone cancer. It takes a lot to give someone cancer. Look how much it exposure to pollution it takes. Billions of tumor exosomes injected into people didn’t even give the vast majority of them cancer but it probably gave most of them some degree of medium term fibrotic disease and/or tumorigenesis and/or immunosuppression — all of which are major molecular dynamics of tumor signaling exosomes — which kicked-in feedbacks loops leading to injuries and deaths, but for those for whom loops weren’t triggered, their body handled and cleared the molecular disequilibria with rebalancing and detoxification cycles. And that was the end of that. There’s no subclinical multidecadal SV40 monster still lurking. Biology doesn’t work like that. It keeps moving, cycling.
I don’t have the foggiest idea about virology, vaccinology, or microbiology, but I knew that the COVID vaccines were not safe, effective, or fit for purpose based purely on the propaganda surrounding their introduction and promotion.
I knew it when nurse Tiffany Dover collapsed after being jabbed on stage at a promotion event in December 2020 and when footballer Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field after a tackle in January 2021.
Indeed I knew it before the first jab was delivered, back in April 2020 when Boris Johnson went into intensive care allegedly due to COVID-19.
I also knew it when CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said: “Vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don’t get sick;” when CNN anchorperson Rachel Maddow said: “the virus stops with every vaccinated person. The virus does not infect them;” and when President Biden said: “If you are fully vaccinated, you no longer need to wear a mask.”
Carl Sagan’s famous “bamboozle” quote from his book The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark (1995) highlights the human tendency to cling to falsehoods. It reads: “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”
If I may wax Saganesque for a minute, my contention is that billions and billions of people have been bamboozled by the COVID psyop, and due to the nature of human psychology, billions and billions of people remain captured by that particular bamboozle.
Regarding vectors, most people who went to high school in the good old days when every pupil had their own personal tablet in the form of a slate and a piece of chalk, will be familiar with the concept from the math or physics class.
A vector is a mathematical or physical quantity having both magnitude (size or length) and direction. Represented geometrically as an arrow, the length indicates magnitude, while the arrowhead points in the specific direction. Vectors are used to represent quantities like force, velocity, and displacement, which differ from scalars (magnitude only).
How did vectors cross over into biology?
Good question! I am so glad you all asked that. You have such enquiring minds.
Primarily, they crossed over by adopting the Latin root vector (“one who carries”), evolving from a mathematical concept of “direction and magnitude” to a biological definition of a “carrier” of diseases or genetic material. While mathematical vectors define the movement of something, biological vectors represent the mechanism transporting a pathogen or gene.
The crossover happened in two main areas: Epidemiology (disease spread) and Molecular Biology/Biotechnology (genetic engineering).
So, we can argue about what is and what it is not a vector in virology, vaccinology, immunology, etc., until the cows come home; but the deeper point is that a vector in these fields is a fancy sciency-sounding technical term analogous to a carrier, a transporter, or a vehicle, something that takes a cargo from A to B.
I am an ignoramus in the more technical aspects of biology—although less so than many people since I know a whale is a mammal and there are only two genders. A tomato? Let’s argue over whether it’s a fruit or a vegetable or both.
I didn’t find anything at all amiss about Ivanislav’s description, “the jab vector had an SV40 sequence,” and I was surprised to see Renate object to it. But on reflection, I assumed that by “vector” Ivanaslav meant “contents” rather than “carrier”, and to this extent my understanding of what was meant was and is vague.
On the other hand, the liquid in the syringe and what is floating in the liquid could be considered to comprise both the contents of the syringe and the carrier, or vector, of whatever active ingredients and whatever toxic ingredients the syringe contain.
Then that’s a testament to Eddy’s pride that he doesn’t know what’s going on, since he lurks here.
He was one hit wonder at certain junction (in the rear view mirror now). Although if similar exalted personae helped at least some people with the decision NOT to jabullar themselves, that was good karma.
In retrospect, the lockdowns seemed to be a salvo in a war. During the lockdowns , all the U.S. and the BRICS, particularly China, did was bicker. Immediately after the lockdowns were lifted Ukraine was invaded.
Hostilities within countries are being downplayed, which is in stark contrast to what we have been exposed to in recent years, while hostility towards foreign governments is being allowed to fester.
All roads seem to be leading to falling population because as Gail says , there is not enough to go around. We can depopulate through pandemics or war but the end goal is the same. Less people.
Kevin says life is no longer worth living. Chocolateless chocolate. Davidina will be in an irreveersible downgoing spiral.
As you know the trick is to eat that posh <70-90% solids content chocolate BUT only by millimeters per bite..
That's structurally the same as casual trillion-airs eating exquisite food so small you almost can't even spot it on the plate served.
Well, only the "irrational" regularly overeat on gene modified junk food, liters of low q beers or chemical wines instead.
And then last bellow are the real poverty stricken – truly hungry folks of the world.
don’t try to console me. w are talking about eating sugary peanut butter and pretending it’s chocolate.
Then refer to my second last paragraph!
There aren’t very many LNG tankers for moving LNG around the world. About half of them (20) are trapped in the Persian Gulf.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/situation-dire-half-available-global-lng-tankers-are-trapped-persian-gulf
Ship brokers said the 20 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf make up nearly half of all LNG ships currently available for charter, with daily rates rising to more than $200,000 from less than $98,000 before the start of the Iran hostilities.
Energy traders expect LNG prices to rise by early next week, adding to this week’s 40% rise in Asia and Europe. “The effect on LNG shipping will outlast the conflict for a few months,” Karathanos said.
Amid the scramble to procure LNG, more shipments bound for Europe are diverting to Asia. At least nine cargoes initially headed to Europe have changed course to Asia since the start of the fighting, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, with the trend accelerating in recent days. A buffer of spare supply is quickly drying up, threatening more competition and higher prices for both regions.
Iran took out a US oil tanker, downed a large US refueling plane over western Iraq and is promising $200 a barrel of oil.
Bravo Persia!
The 63-page report narrowed a list of eight sites to either expanding Miami Executive Airport or Miami Homestead General Aviation Airport into a full-blown commercial airport or else building an airport from scratch somewhere between the two.
The report found it’s past time to be planning an airport because Miami International, which is regarded as Miami-Dade’s main economic engine, “will approach its airfield capacity within approximately 15 years.”
While the county has in recent years bought slices of land around Miami International, an airport in the midst of a fast-growing metropolis faces seemingly insurmountable challenges in acquiring enough space for meaningful airfield growth.
The understated report notes that Miami International can handle 631,000 takeoffs and landings a year and in 2025 it had 501,529, almost 80% of capacity. Federal Aviation Administration standards are that an airport should start planning for growing use at 60% of capacity and should be developing new capacity by the time it hits 80% – right where we are now.
But once the mayor reports by June 3, commissioners will take time to decide whether to proceed and where, which can face turbulence. Though the county’s incinerator burned three years ago, for example, the commission has yet to decide how to replace it or where.
A final commission go-ahead would trigger an airport development process. The mayor’s report estimates those steps would take 12 to 15 years at either Miami Executive Airport or Miami Homestead, with a need for 20-plus years if the county chose to build from scratch between the two.
The report didn’t attach costs to the choices for a commercial airport site. But commissioners last week had funding on their radar.
https://www.miamitodaynews.com/2026/03/11/miami-dade-pinpoints-three-sites-for-vital-new-major-airport/
Yep, we are just cruising full speed into a brick wall without even blinking once,
Way to go..
Good point! We don’t need new airports, if we don’t have jet fuel for existing planes.
Well maybe Iran will provide the needed feed stock once we take over it. Seems like the plan, right Norman?
That’s if we don’t blow ourselves up first, we’re already almost there, are we not?
with a world population of 8 bn, running a ‘profitable’ economic system in which several million people were constantly kept in the air travelling at 500 mph was never going to be a sound model for ongoing prosperity…
Good point, but for those doing the flying it sure was a great idea. I’m old enough to remember when air travel was only for the very rich or corporate travel.
It was so unprofitable the government regulated it in the US to ensure the airlines made a profit.
Then so called deregulation came to free open the skies for everyone. It’s still is unprofitable.
Imagine that. But the masses are spoiled and 8ts another God given right.
Many air carriers went bust recently, more to come with this surge in jet fuel prices. Labor will be asked for cutbacks. Unions won’t be happy. Enjoy the show
Again, you have to evaluate the US airline passenger service as to large degree replacement to national wide bullet train system which would be also extremely costly, and given US conditions the point to point mode air traffic is still more advanced-desirable to rail in the final analysis..
This (must be) would be subsidized as top priority in one form another anywayz.
So, don’t expect this to be trimmed anytime soon, much more likely is yet another new oil war beyond Iran instead (throughout further PO sequencing de-growth trajectory).
sorry jr….
but ultimately, gravity wins every time….
humankind (in its present form), spent 1 million years at a walking pace…
by contrast, we have spent the last 75 years or so, with a priveleged few of us able to travel at 500 mph….
on balance, which dyou think is ‘normal’—?
Norman, sorry my point was chiefly about present modern age in which passenger air transport (e.g. of the US) is basically a bus service (cheap and goes everywhere).. Also thanks to various subsidies applied.
This obviously won’t last for ever, the tech (engines and air port traffic control) is so advanced it won’t survive patching and improvisation attempts in the resource constrained future.
—
On the walking pace “only”, yes and no as river/coastal ~barge transport as well as horse riding (+oxen and mule heavier cargo) has been a thing for many dozens thousand yrs ..
The US railway network is not electrified.
? Well, that’s the point, the investment needed ala Chinese or W. European bullet trains network would be astronomical, that’s why US rail (some token regional exception) has been left to atrophy (and kept in diesel age), the airline industry sucked in all the resources instead and it was a logical choice (given longterm prospects of petrodollar and wars).
No one in Washington even considered that Iran would fight an asymmetrical war. They are doing it and are willing to hurt the West by cutting off their oil supply. Art Berman’s latest. Even he is starting to get worried.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-iran-war-a-world-changing-event/
This is a good article by Art. A lot of it is things we know, put together. These were a couple of surprising things:
One paragraph points to the difference between physical barrels and other barrels:
Oil prices surged to nearly $120 per barrel when markets opened on Monday, March 9, before falling into the upper $80s after Trump said the war would end “very soon.” Brent has since moved back toward $100 as markets absorb the new reality. The oil market is not clearing because available physical barrels are trading at premiums of as much as $40 per barrel—levels refiners simply cannot absorb.
Another is the fact that the oil from reserves can only taken out very slowly:
OECD countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, but that will take roughly six months to reach markets because withdrawal capacity is limited to about 2 million barrels per day.
What is the point of a reserve that has such a small “tap”?
Something that most people don’t realize. Good to hear Art point it out also.
But modern civilization runs on energy. Energy grows food, mines minerals, manufactures goods, and moves everything across the planet. When energy flows stop, the physical economy stops. Without energy, most GDP disappears.
Well, according to this fellow, one of (or THE) chief US strategist on air raids he was teaching all the general and admirals about it for past few decades.
Hence they knew very well about asymmetric (and network systemic impact in retaliation of underdog) but in line of duty had to simply perform according to the political (~POTUS) assignment of the day..
https://substack.com/@professorrobertpape?utm_source=explore_sidebar
+ https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/hormuz-trump-administration-underestimated-iran
the american people voted for a lunatic to make their country great again—
collective insanity…
they voted for someone with the attention span of a 5 year old….
now, just like a child who has tipped over his breakfast cereal bowl…. he will lose interest in the mess he’s created, and walk away, and look for some other mischief to start.
will we be able to extract ourselves from all this?
From Day 11 of No01Substack:
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-11-no-ceasefire-no-tankers
Energy Secretary Wright also tried to help by claiming a tanker had transited under Navy escort. Oil dropped 8% in eight minutes, then clawed back even faster when the post was deleted and Iran’s Parliament Speaker screenshotted it with the caption “Maybe on PlayStation!” – the intern took the fall, but the broader point is that someone, somewhere, keeps needing the dials to read “open for business”.
Meanwhile, Iran is exporting more oil than before the war started. No traffic jams when you are the traffic warden. The WSJ confirmed it: 2.1 million barrels per day, up 100,000 from pre-war levels. Every barrel going to China.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kcKx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7f42b758-c013-4dea-bbc8-ed2955c0a6e7_741x281.jpeg
fact remains
donny starts a business—businesses crashes—(count the bankruptcies)
his latest business is the global economy….
which i forecast in 2016—just took a bit longer than i expected
Your observations are very interesting, Norman.
But what inquiring minds want to know is:
Is the Iran imbroglio a matter of incompetence, idiocy, and ineptitude on Trump’s part?
Or is it 5D chess?
Is crashing the global economy a bug or a feature of the scheme?
Is it collateral damage or is it deliberate policy?
Does Donnie have a cunning plan?
Or is it like one of Baldrick’s.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rEr4_J4gZeo
I really don’t think that both Isreal and USA could make the mistake of believing that they would easily win against Iran. The closing of the strait of Hormuz was en easily foreseable consequence.
Lockdown 2 = resource saving mode. First temporary, but, in fact, most likely permanent.
Sure but I don’t think lockdowns is a useful term. Because this isn’t a plandemic. Rationing is a useful term during a hard rationing regime.
In fact, “lockdowns” appears like it is emerging as the controlled opposition operational term for the “RESET” misdirection play that provides cover for structural Collapse.
I suggest that we don’t feed that troll if we care about peak oil truth.
Still no Bibi?
? He seemed to re-appear today, some msm injected video feed of brand new air raid on highly dense urban centers in Tehran. Also commented on the recent rocket salvo from Lebanon. So it is likely legit.
That’s reassuring thanks.
And we continue to see more private credit problems:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-dumps-after-flagging-30-billion-exposure-private-credit
As the slow-motion train-wreck gathers steam (most recently with Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater, and BlackRock gating investors in their private credit funds), investors are searching various financial entities balance sheets for exposures with the giant German lender itself warning:
“Failures of a select number of sub-prime lenders in the U.S. increased investor focus on risks associated with private credit and raised wider concerns around underwriting standards and fraud risk.” . .
Deutsche Bank shares are down 8% on the day (the biggest drop since Liberation Day , last April) to their lowest since July 2025…
Here’s the official(?) story reante.
Hit during transfer, off Iraq coast(real unlucky with the timing😉) and has another video(which makes the first one far more believable).
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/greek-and-us-owned-product-tankers-ablaze-off-iraq-as-noose-tightens-on-middle-east-shipping/2-1-1958737
They claim another potential 3 ships hit on the same day(all well away from the straights), which makes being a friend of the US deadly.
Found the Salalah port attack. Storage tank, usual suspects, so I’d expect the UAE to get a nasty slap from Iran, on behalf of Oman(who would get a rightful share of any “Hormuz toll” if that idea takes hold, unlike the UAE).
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/exclusive—israel–used-arab-proxy-to-target-oman
The second link is about what appears to be a false flag attack by Israel, taking out a storage tank in UAE.
Exclusive: ‘Israel’ used Arab proxy to target Oman
Iran has named “Israel” as the party behind the drone attack on fuel storage tanks at Oman’s Port of Salalah, with a senior official telling Al Mayadeen the strike was a false flag carried out through a proxy Arab state.
He added that intelligence agencies across the region had previously warned that Netanyahu’s government might exploit the current regional chaos to target specific Gulf states that oppose Israeli expansion, with Oman identified as among the most prominent countries in that plan.
Nice thanks. Well that’s the first video again that IATM(?) originally posted that doesn’t catch the beginning but, damn, sure enough there are two ships! I never picked up the peak of the bow of the main broadside ship to the left, as distinct from the second ship to the right which is an angle facing towards the camera.
I can’t say I can see a Hormuz toll in the cards. That’s seems a more Judeo-christian regime than an Islamic fundamentalist one.
I notice the absence of all these people who peddled this contraption or that will save the world and BAU, especially the Minnesotan delusionist.
When push comes to shove, the bshtters disappear and only serious people remain.
I do miss Keith. At least he had interesting to say.
Iran now has a cardboard as the leader, which means no one is really leading. Until all of Iran is somehow occupied and pacified, there will be no end.
Which is why Emperor Hirohito, aka Showa, was not punished. There had to be someone to tell the soldiers to stop shooting.
For whatever reason Beebee thinks it will be over in 1 year. Even Alexander the Great took a few years to conquer Iran.
The Danish Energy Minister begs citizens to stop driving.
I do not rule out an energy lockdown.
Driving banned unless for work!
https://x.com/eris_28/status/2032119793482940471
There’s no way to enforce that. Hard rationing is the only way to enforce consumption targets. And to maintain social stability. Rich and poor alike must have the same quotas, at least on the surface level. The rich and powerful are definitely gonna be exploiting the black markets but they’d better watch their backs.
I guess we have been over this several times already.
There is notable socio-cultural divergence across the globe, and technically it’s ~easy to (self)enforce especially in high density urban regions and megacities via toll gates, security cameras, wireless app(zoning), !snatching colleagues and neighbors on you etc.
Actually, in terms of compliance we can have a list from top to bottom:
1. Post peak mature Asia ala Japan
2. Europe
..
.
x US
.
.
.
3rd world proper
All cultures understand fairness because fairness is the human being’s primary social concern. Fairness as the primary concern goes all the way back to apes physically grooming each other for no more or less than 5-6 minutes at a time, assiduously taking turns.
Hand is going to follow the KISS principle during Phase 2.
States that have declared force majeure so far:
Bahrain (Bapco Energies)
Qatar (QatarEnergy)
Kuwait (Kuwait Petroleum Corporation)
Israel (Chevron/Leviathan field)
Iraq (West Qurna-2 field; Lukoil declaration)
And now:
“Several major energy traders have begun declaring force majeure”
Shell has a major ‘wow’ factor.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-and-TotalEnergies-Issue-Force-Majeure-After-Qatar-LNG-Shut-Down.html
> Shell and TotalEnergies Issue Force Majeure After Qatar LNG Shut Down
Several major energy traders have begun declaring force majeure to their own customers after Qatar’s LNG shutdown rippled through global gas markets, according to Reuters sources on Wednesday.
Companies including Shell and TotalEnergies–both major portfolio players that lift liquefied natural gas from QatarEnergy–have notified downstream buyers that contractual deliveries may be disrupted following Qatar’s suspension of LNG production.
The move marks the first clear sign that Qatar’s export stoppage is cascading through the global LNG trading system.
QatarEnergy halted production at its giant LNG complex earlier this month and declared force majeure on shipments after drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. The country operates roughly 77 million tons per year of liquefaction capacity and is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter.
Shell and TotalEnergies are among the largest marketers of Qatari LNG worldwide. Analysts estimate Shell lifts about 6.8 million tons per annum of LNG from Qatar while TotalEnergies takes roughly 5.2 million tons per year, reselling the cargoes to utilities and industrial buyers across Europe and Asia.
It sounds like the LNG shortage could be worse after April 1.
Qatar’s shutdown has already halted LNG exports for days at a time. According to Kpler vessel-tracking data cited by Bloomberg, the country recorded five consecutive days without any LNG shipments — the longest interruption since 2008.
The disruption has removed a major portion of global LNG supply from the market. No LNG carrier has transited the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, affecting cargoes from Qatar as well as shipments normally leaving the United Arab Emirates.
With Qatar accounting for roughly 20% of global LNG exports, the halt has pushed Asian and European gas markets higher as buyers scramble for alternative supply.
Some cargoes originally headed to Europe have already been diverted toward higher-priced Asian markets, tightening availability for European utilities.
Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that restoring normal LNG deliveries could take “weeks to months,” even if the conflict in the region were to end immediately.
Sources told Reuters that LNG deliveries scheduled for March are largely expected to proceed as planned, with the main impact of the shutdown likely to begin affecting contractual supply from April onward.
I don’t totally get it. Is the strait closed or not? are all shipments going only to China?
Supposedly only handful (<10x) of ship went through so far. And likely to China.
That Mirror/Gail's article above refers to LNG vessels already dispatched far away on the high seas, changing directions to highest bidder, hence yet unfilled / likely not to be dispatched LNG vessel for the April info..
Yes China and Pakistan is my understanding. There seems to be a bit of confusion with people talking about ships ‘pretending to be Chinese’ that are getting through but that’s because they are not understanding that those ships are non-Chinese-flagged China-bound.
“We will not allow even a single liter of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to the benefit of the United States and its allies,” a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters said on Wednesday.
Any vessel whose ownership or oil cargo belongs to the United States, the Zionist regime, or their hostile partners is considered a legitimate target for Iran’s armed forces, he emphasized.
“The policy of reciprocal strikes has ended; from now on, our doctrine will be strike after strike.”
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/12/3538532/no-oil-benefiting-us-allies-allowed-to-pass-through-hormuz-strait-iran
Have the “kingdoms” just become official “hostile partners” rather than unfortunates lumbered with aggressor bases. Might be time to give the good people of Bahrain a little extra help and wipe out the Saudi and Jordanian forces brought in to keep them down.
Strike after strike? Someone tell them that they are about to run out of ordnance, they appear blissfully unaware.
From Brave browser’s “Ask”:
Current Status of the Strait of Hormuz
As of March 12, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to most international shipping due to escalating conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel. While there is no physical blockade, maritime traffic has come to a near standstill due to Iranian threats, drone and missile attacks, and GPS jamming. Experts describe the closure as de facto, with no commercial vessels daring to transit under current conditions.
According to analysts from Global Risk Management, “It is de facto closed in that no one dares to go through.” Ship-tracking data confirms a dramatic drop in daily transits—from an average of 80–100 ships per day to only 3–8, primarily involving vessels linked to Iran, China, or shadow fleets.
======================
Soon the world economy will crash, and we will all be starving. I just hope that Elon has got the flying saucers ready, so that we can all move to Mars and colonise it, as per the cunning plans of the Elders.
Iranian and Chinese have free reign, as much as conditions allow. I hear some oil is going to various Asian nations(on who’s ships I don’t know and I have a suspicion that they’re doing some good will stuff to entice the various “kingdoms” but that might just be cargo).
The Astra, an LPG tanker will dock in Sohar Oman tomorrow. It’s Mozambique flagged and apparently coming from China, so it must have taken the over land route, as it’s just left the Straights of Hormuz heading south.
Outside that, it looks like denounce and throw out the US, or get them to come with you. Either guarantees safe passage, neither guarantees boom boom.
What governments are willing to fight for their citizens?
Israel
Russia
North Korea at least for the dictators family
Pakistan
India
Yemen
Hungary
Italy
Japan
Western Ukraine
Poland
The west is dead.
Finally, someone with a brain, good approach and list ~approved.
no government is willing to fight for its people except perhaps Iran as we saw lately. But many governments are willing to have their people fight for them. Most governments are willing to have other people fight for them. this comment I am replying to makes no sense.
Brent skyrocketing to $100 (despite all the hand waving and SPR releases)
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/1
WSJ saying:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-03-12-2026
Stock Market Today: Oil Jumps to $100 as Hormuz Crisis Deepens; Dow Drops 600 Points
IEA warns of record disruption in global energy market
Hopes of quickly restoring the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are dimming, with Iran’s new leader vowing to keep the key oil route closed and seven ships struck over the past day. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. Navy wasn’t yet ready to escort tankers through the waterway, but that he expected this to happen by the end of March.
A record release of strategic oil reserves announced Wednesday failed to halt a run-up in oil prices.
Also adding to concerns: A report from Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency that Iran-backed groups could shut a crossing that controls traffic for vessels accessing the Suez Canal via the Red Sea.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.2% and the U.S. dollar advanced.
SPR release does not matter . Two examples :
1 .USA to release 172 million barrelsover a period of 120 days = 1.4 mbpd . Trying to fill the ocean with a teaspoon .
2 . Japan to release 80 million barrels . How does that ease the situation in Pakistan or EU ? Location , location .
3 . Refineries use blended oil as I have informed earlier .
Understand that USA was the only country that ever sold from its SPR . This oil was sold in the open market to traders like Vitol , Glencore, Trafigura etc and used as an instrument of price suppression . This is the first time that oil will be released by National governments to their refineries for actual use and not for price suppression . We know that oil when stored for long period degrades over time so really we are flying blind at this moment .
I think that even when SPR oil is sold, it is partly for price suppression.
The oil that is released may be skewed fairly light. It may not have enough diesel/jet fuel in it to fix that part of the shortage.
I was just arguing with the AI, which is relatively patient, because I stumbled upon the fact that the EU is importing the following oil:
11 million bpd of imports
3 million bpd from Norway and UK
5 million bpd of refined products
just under 20 million bpd. These have an energy value of 12,400 TWh.
But the AI firmly and firmly claims that the EU primary energy demand is 2,697 TWh, probably a mistake. Other data come to 14,560 TWh, but that doesn’t fit either: if oil accounts for about 1/3 of all energy sources, there must be a cause that is not taken into account in the official calculation. To this end, I used the faulty AI to estimate the hidden energy content of imported goods, from metals to cement, glass, bitumen, books, cars, food, and added the hydrocarbons produced in the EU as well as electricity from alternative energy. My sum:
36,739 TWh annually as a “Total Energy Requirement”
This goes quite well with the formula 3x oil.
However, if the information on energy consumption or demand is conveyed incorrectly to the public by a factor of two or ten, then all calculations based on it are incorrect.
I think this topic deserves even more consideration.
I expect that there is a problem with matching electricity amounts with fossil fuel amounts so you have an apples and oranges comparison. Burning fossil fuels provides electricity that has much less heating power than the original fossil fuels.
AI cannot tell apples from oranges.
Very interesting near-secular development (if true – HT is known for sensationalist proclamations and their quick&silent removal in a day or two):
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/major-signal-inside-iran-tribes-controlling-oil-sector-declare-rejection-of-islamic-rule
Excellent, now, if the US can reject Zionist rule.
Khuzestan is a small area within Iran that produces the MAJORITY of Iran’s oil. It is located right next to the Straight of Hormuz and Iran. The area is the economic lifeline of the ENTIRE Islamic Republic. This area would like nearly all of the oil revenue, and it would like a secular, democratic Iran.
Major Signal Inside Iran; Tribes Controlling Oil Sector Declare Rejection of Islamic Rule
They affirm national unity — this isn’t separatism. This is regime rejection. . . .
No oil = no money.
No money = no war machine.
No war machine = no regime.
Iran’s collapse won’t come from the sky. It’ll come from Khuzestan. It began with this declaration.
As I think about the situation, I wonder if the whole world is headed toward smaller and smaller political areas. The reason for failure may seem to be different, but they have to do with not enough energy supplies to keep up the current system.
It would look like India could face this issue, as could China. The EU could fairly easily dissolve. Poor countries of Africa could become even poorer, smaller countries of Africa. The US could break into smaller organizational units without the same Social Security and other benefit plans as currently are in effect.
Hal looking like he’s outsourcing his writing to AI. All 200 words of it lol. If this type of narrative actually comes to pass, then it would support Tim’s suspicion that the original gangster, Khomeini, was a CIA asset after all, operating under a tactical reversal by the Hand into Islamic rule for Iran.
Certainly a secular, democratic unity government would work well for a sanctions-free Iran during Phase 2, assuming that worked well for Iran, which seems highly doubtful.
New Zealand is considering invoking emergency powers that could limit how often people are allowed to drive.
“New Zealand officials are contemplating reviving old laws to limit car usage. This measure could be implemented if fuel supplies are severely impacted by the ongoing Middle East conflict. These regulations, previously in place in 1979, would require car owners to nominate a day each week for not using their vehicle. The government could also control fuel sales.”
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/middle-east-war-new-zealand-mulls-car-restrictions-if-fuel-supply-stalls/articleshow/129491802.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Not yet in place. I can imagine more stringent restrictions.
But it is air travel and the use diesel for industry and heavy equipment that is more important, in some sense.
‘Please, please, please’: Denmark urges citizens to avoid driving as oil prices spike
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/us-iran-war-danes-energy-driving-oil-prices-spike.html
Individual stations in Australia begin capping gas purchases. Not government imposed.
Based on reports from March 9-11, 2026, some individual petrol stations in regional Australia have introduced temporary $20 fuel limits per customer due to severe supply pressures and panic buying.
Yahoo Finance Australia
Yahoo Finance Australia
+1
Right off the tele of CNBC….mainstream…but Joe Trump 6 Pak won’t have a clue
How Strait of Hormuz closure can become tipping point for global economy
Published Wed, Mar 11 2026 11:16 AM EDT
Updated Wed, Mar 11 2026 2:48 PM EDT
Kevin Williams
WATCH LIVE
KEY POINTS
Oil is far from the only critical input for the global economy that would be disrupted by a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Iran war.
Aluminum prices are already rising, and further disruption could increase input costs for automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe.
Fertilizer and agricultural flows, rubber, electronics, batteries, pharmaceuticals, Asian-based garment manufacturing and sugar are among other potential disrupted supply chains.
U.S. military actions and insurance backstops may help to keep trade flowing, but some supply chain experts say it would only take a few weeks for the impact to hit prices across a wide range of products.
Americans are warily eyeing prices at the pump as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz grind to a halt amid the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels. The IEA took the unprecedented step of saying it would release 400 million barrels of oil from reserve on Wednesday. But oil is far from the only product for which the world economy is heavily dependent on the shallow, narrow waterway which connects Persian Gulf ports with the rest of the world. From the metals market to agriculture and autos, a de facto closure of the strait would ripple through business sectors and both the U.S. and world economy.
Oh my, the word is out…
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/11/strait-of-hormuz-closure-shipping-economy-oil.html
“New Ayatollah’s First Message: Hormuz Strait Stays Closed, Warns ‘More Fronts’ Could Open”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-more-tankers-hit-bringing-total-six-ships-oil-tops-100-after-trump-declares-we-won
Current title:
Tehran Denies Mining Hormuz, But Says War Isn’t Ending Soon
The title of the CBS article is
How Strait of Hormuz closure can become tipping point for global economy
Wow! But people cannot understand how important the situation is. This will tend to push the world economy toward contraction. Without enough heavy oil, the economy is in terrible shape.
I think we all had plans, but this war was just too sudden and caught everyone off guard.
I don’t think anyone was prepared for this, this soon.
The only good think I can think of is that, like Covid, it will flaten oil consumption and make it stay lower than today, while we still have it. This might give us more years, even though in a worsened state, it just depends how severe this disruption will be, and how long will it last.
Choke Point: Larry Johnson discusses “The Global Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf Shutdown”.
This is a very clear and well-written account of which countries stand to be most affected by the interruption in the flow of oil, gas, and urea (for fertilizer) from the Persian Gulf region. I won’t post any of the article here, but it is well worth a read, especially if you want to know how badly your country will be impacted.
Unfortunately for yours truly, if this thing doesn’t get sorted out in a couple of months, it looks like Japan is going to be critically affected by shortages of all three essentials. I may have to eat my cats before they eat me.
https://www.unz.com/article/choke-point-the-global-economic-consequences-of-the-persian-gulf-shutdown/
As Fast Eddy would tart out 🙀, can’t wait to see these rich folks crunching on a rat…like these poor bastards in India being in the outcastes…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuZP8FWS4JA
Musahars — ‘Rat Eaters’ — one of India’s most marginalised communities. Even the browbeaten low-caste Dalits look down on them
Hope you enjoy, Timmie
I’ll bet the Rat Eaters think the Rats are tasty. A nice supplement to rice and a few weeds as vegetables.
Hope Fast Eddy finds them “tasty” too down under,
Hope his veggie garden can add to the texture…if the rats don’t eat chow it up first..lol
PS went to the recent Honest Sorcerer blog and Fast Eddy still true to form in his comment.
So, he’s just fine
yup
swearing by numbers is always an intellectual challenge
I would agree that this is really an excellent article. Larry Johnson looks at three export areas separately: Oil, LNG, and Urea. For Oil and Urea, he puts his findings into tables by country impact. LNG problems are described separately for Japan (most affected) and South Korea (second most affected). (No LNG write-up for India, however.)
These are the two tables he gives. The US does relatively well. Japan does terribly, particularly for oil and LNG.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Larry-Johnson-Oil-Impact-by-country.png-.png
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Larry-Johnson-Urea-Impact-by-Area.png
Chennai-based brand is airlifting 10,000 induction stoves from China and has placed an order for 1 lakh units, anticipating huge demand from its dealer network.
Quote
Prakash Dadlani
@prakdadlani
·
2h
Replying to @GuruShareMarket
My Chinese parts suppliers asking me
“Boss, are Indians cooking on induction tops or eating them?”
https://x.com/wintrackinc/status/2032007862528942253
Sorry , 1 lakh is 100,000 .
I wonder where the electricity supply, as well as the needed wiring to carry the higher electricity supply, will come from.
Now if I understand this correctly. And thats a big if. The initial runup in oil prices was based on physical barrels of oil. Since that time paper trading at least in Brent and WTI have taken over. Looks like the same thing that happened with the silver market. The following is Ai (Reuters) response to my question of what is the current price difference between a paper barrel of oil and a physical barrel of oil
As of March 12, 2026, the premium for physical “cash” Dubai crude oil over paper swaps has jumped to approximately $37.87 per barrel, a significant surge indicating severe supply chain disruptions. This creates a massive, volatile spread between physical delivery and paper futures, reflecting immediate supply shortages, similar to market conditions during the 2022 energy crisis.
Reuters
Reuters
Interesting point!
I don’t know how to find physical cash Dubai crude oil prices. All I get is the “world” oil price, which is a futures price.
Australian politicians agreed to ‘keep quiet’ about the country’s fuel crisis – now regional servos are running dry
Australian politicians were told by party leaders to keep their mouths shut about the country’s dwindling fuel supplies, a top defence analyst has claimed.
Concerns over Australia’s fuel security have surged since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with fears regional petrol stations could run out of E10 and unleaded within days.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15637259/Fuel-crisis-Australia-government.html
If FE buys an EV I will lose it!
Sydney Airport chiefs warns it isn’t sure of fuel supply next month
“There can be no assurances that airports will receive aviation fuel next month, importers have warned, with Sydney Airport chief executive Scott Charlton raising concerns about an over-reliance on overseas supplies.”
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/sydney-airport-chief-warns-jet-fuel-supplies-at-risk-as-tension-rises-20260312-p5o9rq?utm_source=afr-web&utm_medium=share_article&utm_campaign=companies&utm_content=afralldigital%2Cwebonly&utm_term=product_feature
People planning vacations to Australia need to think about this issue.
i’d say any long distance is risky
yestyerday a friend of mine was cheerfully talking about her planned trip to sri lanka on monday—-
i wanted to say ‘be aware’….but if she cant see the looming problem, she wouldnt thank me for pointing it out….
Stryker headquarters in Michigan closes amid cyber attack affecting global systems
PORTAGE, Mich. — Stryker’s Global Headquarters in Portage closed on Wednesday as the company deals with a cyber attack.
FOX 17 learned Stryker fell victim to the attack, which is wiping phones and computers tied to the company’s systems, according to Portage Public Safety.
A Stryker spokesperson confirmed it was targeted through its Microsoft suite of technology which disrupted its networks in facilities across the world. The company said it has contained the situation, noting no evidence of ransomware or malware has been found.
Stryker employs more than 1,000 people in the Kalamazoo area and has roughly 53,000 employees globally.
https://www.fox17online.com/news/local-news/kzoo-bc/kalamazoo/stryker-headquarters-in-portage-closes-amid-reported-cyber-attack-affecting-global-systems
No one needs cyber attacks, as well.
Cyber attacks are usually performed by skilled programmers.
As far as I know, no (not a double negative) money was stolen so I’m guessing the motive was personal.
It could possibly be a disgruntled employee or unhappy patient who was harmed by a defective Stryker product.
this whole Iran thing is simply the elders pushing forward the agenda of electric vehicles the only way they will be a success is if oil supplies are running low already a lot of people I know a considering electric vehicles as a mode of transport whereas before the Iran war they would not even contemplate it
As very recent case in point by Norman “our very own” said ready to jump the ship under current conditions..
I’d not go as far as directly link the ME campaign with EV push, but it certainly rhymes with the overall agenda.
As mentioned (and linked) previously the real game changer are/will be the so-called solid state batteries, which have ~unlimited lifecycle and are not rare earth sourced. From the industry articles it seems they are postponed chiefly on the fin/biz reality of prior over investment in batt factories of the traditional technology (around the world). So, the phase-in will be slower, step by step. And will appear firstly in luxury products and PHEVs ( small packs 10-20kWhs only vs. 60-100kWhs of full EVs )..
If you have the money go for it – say realistic before 2030s in terms of PHEVs availability..
Norm folded like a cheap deck chair.
And remember, Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
Oceania will have a hard time of it, if most food needs to be shipped in. Lack of fuel will hit islands hard.
New Zealand has 3 weeks of fuel stocks on country, unfortunately it’s only refinery was closed 2 years ago and all the country’s refined fuel comes from South Korea.
South Korea is already seriously talking about banning all exports of refined products….
Also, New Zealand’s main fuel supplier in the first place is the UAE.
A massive energy shock comes on top of shrinking economy already suffering UK Atlas Network “austerity” policies…
most people ignore the fact, that the notion of being able to jump into a mechanical contrivance and go where you want to, is only 100/150 years old, (depending how you look at it)
prior to that, our species travelled very short distances, because it was, of necessity, on foot…
in fact the entire business of the world only moved at a walking pace, under muscle power….
think about that…
Oil prices are ticking back toward $100. Tankers have been hit.
See Jackson Hinkel’s feed for constant updates on incidents in the Iran – Israel/ USA conflict: https://x.com/jacksonhinklle
—-
https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-iran-war-irgc-missile-strike-hits-american-tanker-in-northern-gulf-massive-fire-erupts-on-us-linked-oil-ship-after-iranian-attack-breaking-175652/
> IRGC Missile Strike Hits American Tanker in Northern Gulf; Massive Fire Erupts on US-Linked Oil Ship After Iranian Attack | BREAKING
US Iran War Updates: Iran’s IRGC claimed direct missile strike on US-linked oil tanker setting massive blaze in northern Persian Gulf now according to reports. Attack marks Day 12 of US-Israel-Iran war crippling vital shipping lanes. Tehran declared Strait of Hormuz under exclusive Iranian control barring US Israel Europe vessels while permitting only China Russia passage.
What Tankers Hit in Gulf Attack Wave
IRGC missile slammed unnamed US tanker sparking uncontrollable fire northern Persian Gulf.
Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree took two projectiles 11 nautical miles north Oman engine room inferno forced 20 crew evacuation.
Marshall Islands bulker Star Gwyneth suffered two-meter hull breach 50 nautical miles northwest Dubai.
Japanese container One Majesty reported stern damage anchored 52 nautical miles from Strait Hormuz entrance.
The WSJ and Zerohedge both have articles on the situation. This is a link to the Zerohedge article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hegseth-warns-most-intense-day-operation-epic-fury-iea-plans-largest-ever-spr-dump
Oil Prices Jump, Stocks Dump As 2 Oil Tankers Explode In Persian Gulf, Hezbollah Hits Israel With Largest Missile Attack Of War
Also:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-attack-too-high-us-navy-refuses-provide-escorts-ships-transiting-hormuz-strait
“Risk Of Attack Is Too High”: US Navy Refuses To Provide Escorts To Ships Transiting Hormuz Strait
One week after Trump announced that the US would cover insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and would provide them with US navy escorts, Reuters reports that the US Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now.
The U.S. Navy has held regular briefings with shipping and oil industry counterparts and has said during those briefings it is unable to provide escorts for the time being, three unnamed shipping industry sources told Reuters. They added that the shipping industry has been making requests almost daily during the calls for naval escorts through the strait. One of the sources said the Navy’s assessment during Tuesday’s briefing had not changed and that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced, which judging by images like the one below of a container ship in the Gulf today won’t happen any time soon.
I don’t understand oil should be at least $150 ; they must be just manipulating the price down. It is not an open system. It is all fake…
How are you going to understand when you don’t listen and learn?
Oh please your patronizing is so pathetic…
listen to what Gail has been writing no one can afford 150 dollars Oil so deflation is always the results with spiking oil prices
Yes but she has been saying that they can go up in the short term. And then crash back down.
I happened to be fueling my reliable, 19yo ToyoTaco a few days ago while they were changing the posted fuel prices. When I examined my receipt it showed that I was charged an $/gal rate of that was in between (2.99US$) the posted price when I began fueling (2.89 US$) and when I departed (3.19US$). The time to refuel was no more than 2 minutes.
No shit that’s wild. The ghost of hyperinflation in the machine.
There is going to be two prices, like in silver. Japan and Korea for sure are not paying the paper price on delivery. Probably even China is paying above paper price. The Hand seems to have the same pricesetting power as for silver.
“Iran” is another covid style disaster. It’s going to disrupt nearly everything and turn the world upside down (again).
Get your toilet paper now folks..
https://x.com/BNODesk/status/2031851355413901598
This won’t help insurance rates.
Trump: Oil tanker crews must ‘show some guts,’ sail through Straight of Hormuz
https://thehill.com/business/5774913-donald-trump-oil-tankers-strait-hormuz/
Maybe Trump should look and see what is really going on.
bit late for that i think
donnie has never ”known whats going on”
because he is the ultimate self obsessed narcissist
Has he tried that line with the heavily armed US navy?
Iran has offered safe passage to any tanker that can convince a US navy ship to stop skulking, grow a pair and tag along. Balls in big mouths court.
Release the complete Epstein files, as cover for the bigger embarrassment.
The Hidden Hand just made its first obvious Hands-on entry into the Big Nuclear Scare (BNS). That footage is not of a tanker fire from a drone boat or a missile. That is a Hollywood spectacle of a fire that only The (mapped positron) Beam can achieve by simultaneously stripping elections from each of the tanks in order to ignite them all. Each tanker compartment has extreme fireproofing around it.
Hand be goosing things along, as I always said it would during the BNS.
AI:
“Oil tankers use strong, specialized fire protection between compartments and surrounding structures, typically involving steel, double-layer tanks, and/or mineral wool insulation to create fire-resistant barriers. These barriers prevent fire from spreading between tanks and protect the oil inside from igniting.
Atlantis Tanks Group Ltd
Atlantis Tanks Group Ltd
+2
Key Fireproofing and Safety Features:
Fire-Rated Tanks: These tanks have an integrated flame-retardant layer, often made of mineral wool, sandwiched between an inner tank and an outer bund, providing a robust, heat-resistant barrier.
Fire Barriers: Specialized panels can be installed between tanks to prevent the spread of fire.
Separation Distances: Regulations often require significant, sometimes 1.8 meters or more, distances between oil tanks and other buildings or structures, which can be reduced if the tanks are fire-rated.
Safety Systems: For added protection, fire-fighting foams and water curtain systems are used to cool tanks and suppress flames, especially in large, industrial tank farms.
FireDos
FireDos
+7
Additional Protective Measures:
Inerting: The use of inert gases (like nitrogen) is common in oil tankers to reduce the oxygen concentration in the vapor space, making it harder for a fire to ignite or spread.
Flame Arrestors: These are used in ventilation systems to prevent flames from entering the tank, preventing fires.
Maintenance: Regular inspections, ensuring proper grounding, and managing vapor are essential for reducing fire risk.
KBK Industries
KBK Industries
+4
These methods collectively ensure that even if a fire occurs, it is contained, minimizing damage to the surrounding environment and reducing the risk of a larger, more catastrophic event.”
“That is a Hollywood spectacle of a fire”
Doesn’t look real, does it, so not much point extrapolating on potential boom boom.
Here’s the last(reported) tanker hit
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-linked-vessel-did-not-heed-iran-warning–hit-in-gulf
Somewhat less spectacular.
Last night it did look real to me but the spread seemed very unlikely. And it still does look real to me this morning, but now the spread looks perfectly normal. I realized that it’s an optical illusion and that all of that fire except in the middle of the boat on the far side, where it was struck, is actually on the water and not on the boat. The drone explosion breach some compartments on the far side and all the naptha just poured out onto the water line a lake of fire, and spread. Spectacular. So I apologize for the false Beam call.
This clip shows the initial explosion better:
https://x.com/BNODesk/status/2032054860187680957?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2032054860187680957%7Ctwgr%5Ea8fdbdd951de582fe7193b0ec34a579630182f34%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Ftwo-more-tankers-hit-bringing-total-six-ships-oil-tops-100-after-trump-declares-we-won
Yeah, that’s the one I’ve tried to post. It looks far more believable, but who’s, where and when might be debated. There’s been an attack on Oman(Port Salalah), straight after they basically came out on Iran’s side, but I’m not sure of the details, so don’t know what was attacked.
Yeah it could obviously be a provocation as Putin would call it, or not. Iran’s been given the green light by the Hand, but it probably also needs some assistance every now and again.
I don’t know if you’ve heard Ritter’s analysis of the school bombing — it’s really good since realtime combat targeting was his specialty — but he’s saying that Trump and Hegseth need to be convicted of wars crimes and be put in prison. He talks about most of the deaths came from an international, premeditated double-tap after everyone had rushed into the main auditorium which was visible to the satellite feed. And he said that the missile was visibly a Patriot. Yet Trump and Hegseth are saying Iran did it. The Age of Gaslighting notwithstanding, to me it looks like they are getting framed for it.
Ritter’s another I don’t trust, but there seems a lot of truth in his account of the school hit from what you write. Confirmed deliberate US stike, confirmed hit and then wait for the rescuers and hit again.
Doesn’t even matter if they knew, because their own public statements prove that this was the kind of war they ordered.
We’ll go after the easy targets, or words to that effect from Trump, are quite damning legally and if the media start playing that on loop, everyone will look at him like the devil. There’s a recording of the school getting hit(you even hear a split second of a girls scream). Loop the pair and watch public perception. First public lynching of a sitting president too much to hope for?
I don’t think people in the west understand what the rest of the world sees and so knows, about us.
“The official media is reserved as usual, focused on factual reporting and calls for restraint and quick end of hostilities.
Social media reactions are much more vivid, diverse, and direct with total support of Iran and repudiation of USrael.
People are watching the bombastic and hyperbolic statements streaming out of the US regime on a daily basis with open derision and disgust.”
Don’t make a nation that mostly looks in, a nation that even kegsbreath admitted can destroy the entire US fleet in 20 minutes, look out with “derision and disgust”. It won’t end well.
https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/what-are-the-chinese-saying-about
Oh for sure, about Ritter. He’s a key controlled opposition operative. His very public debanking last year was the Hand’s official calling card for him, for those with eyez to see who dis already see that. This Big Nuclear Scare (BNS) is plandemic 2.0 after all – meaning the second and last great set-piece of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA). Ritter is “The Peaceful Warrior,” an analog to Peter McCullough. Jeffrey Sachs, who just so happens to be an old friend of Gabbard, is playing the Sucharit Bakhti-style role of “The Conscience” in his emoting on the catastrophic fall of American political leadership and the desperate need for a savior figure to put a stop to the madness. The list goes on. Everybody’s been lined up and elevated by the algos in service of the coming coup. It’s all so incredibly transparent.
I meant intentional and not international in the last comment.
Thanks! Insurers still would be unhappy.
I’ve posted another video that seems to confirm a potential later strike and it seems to match.
Meant to reply to reante with it, but it appears below my reply to Jr(in moderation at the moment).
Check and see if it is out of moderation. Everything I have is out of moderation now.
Yes, all good. Thanks Gail
This was posted yesterday, and it shows where we are right now:
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-catabolic-correction-redefining
Conclusion:
“The demographic models projecting 10 billion people by 2050 are charting a ghost trajectory. By ignoring the thermodynamic subsidies that created the modern carrying capacity, the mechanics of the Seneca Cliff, the limits of adaptation velocity, the ERoEI trap, and the absolute deficit of draft animal power—and by entirely blinding themselves to the new climate attractor regime—they have mistaken a transient, fossil-fuelled overshoot for a permanent biological triumph. The catabolic correction has already begun, and it will be driven not by the choices of family planners, but by the absolute limits of density-dependent mortality in an energy-starved ecosystem.”
Explaining why it won’t worK:
Mainstream agronomists often theoretically estimate that organic, non-fossil agriculture (incorporating modern crop genetics) could support roughly 4.0 billion people. This is a biophysical fallacy. It ignores the mechanical traction required to farm at scale. Prior to the fossil fuel era, agricultural power was provided by draft animals (horses, oxen), which consumed up to 30% of the land’s yield just for their own biological upkeep.
Today, the global herd of draft animals has been virtually eliminated, replaced by the diesel tractor. In the absence of diesel, humanity cannot instantly revert to animal power; we must revert to hand labour. The metabolic cost of human hand labour drastically lowers the Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) of farming, as the human must consume a massive portion of the caloric yield simply to power the physical work of growing it.
Population was about 1 billion before fossil fuels. Now, resources are more degraded. The world might not be able to support that many.
Pop was ~1bln with Jethro Tull, nitro fixers co-/planted prior main harvest (grain), various sanitary early advancements (biggest reward) etc.. aka various mega-tricks already applied.
In other words it could plunge way lower.. even w.out the mentioned resource depletion-degradation factor of today.
Human population is weaker and weaker. It lost abilities to grow food and has not acquired the new knowledge in food production that is needed due to climate change, new pests, diseases, carbon and nutrients depletion, water scarcity.
It survives thanks to drugs which prevent its massive elimination.
The truth is terrible: the food becomes distant due to the costs of its production and transport.
The only viable way of food production now is growing it next to your home where you can protect the crops and your energy expenditure is reasonable.
This means that all other land for food production is lost.
Collapse is healthy because it destroys people’s false beliefs about the world they live in and makes them realize they have already been living in a world that died long ago.
The starving nicely completes the statement with an exclamation point.
Young people have a difficult time of it today. Even if they follow what seems to be the best path forward, they still have a difficult time doing as well as their parents did.
Slovakia: The housing crisis continues. A record low number of apartments are being built, and many properties are only affordable for the wealthy.
https://www.postoj.sk/191143/pribuda-rekordne-malo-bytov-a-mnohe-nehnutelnosti-su-iba-pre-bohatych
It seems like there are probably many places in the world where many properties are only available by the wealthy.
That was the case before the Great War. Most lived in tenements and only the wealthy lived in decent hpises
With the proviso Slovakia used to have a system where ~all young families were issued new flats virtually for free (symbolic rent only) even during population explosive wave; fast forward ~35yrs well and the propaganda of superior western “market forces” underwritten life-styles still persists, even-though many such properties are long term unoccupied as kept in reserve for (fin) speculation.. while the pop growth/births plummet. Humanoids were clearly tweaked (locked in) for never-ending cycle of self inflicting failures punctuated by occasional brief moments of clarity.
People built multigenerational houses awaiting population growth where the depopulation already started. When children left they remained alone with high energy and maintenance costs.
Yes, some sort of low %interest loans (+bonuses) even for multigen private houses were also issued by the ~state. The point in the post was more about the bulk of the overall effort which was rapid build up of flats in multistory projects.
Impossible to replicate in following decades under “market conditions” No specialized workers around then (capacity to build it), govs without funds (revenue instead send abroad in vassalage tributes to western overlords), expensive energy, expensive real estate grounds for such dev, etc.
But as people like to enjoy (and even actively vote in favor of) their impoverishment, more kudos to them..
Where is AI offering solutions to Iran?
Where are the high IQ, striving brains, offering solutions to Iran?
All of them seem to be AWOL.
Claude was the AI engine originating this invasion and it has gone silent.
Once I battled a delusionist who yapped the 80/20 theory, from Joseph Juran, a Romanian engineer who borrowed Vilfredo Pareto’s analysis from about 1900 and popularized it in 1940s.
I asked, would you use a gun which fires about 20% of the time?
Well, that’s what AI and all these strivers have wrought.
The airline business was profitable as long as it functioned as a cartel . The low cost airline business model blew a hole in the cartel . Nobody makes any profit except a few ( Ryan air , South West ) . All others have been on a permanent life support . Can the life support continue ?
While Boeing has suffered severe, multi-year financial losses exceeding $35 billion since 2019 due to safety crises, production halts, and strikes, it has not “never” made a profit. The company reported a net profit in Q4 2025, driven by a major business unit sale, though its core commercial aircraft business remained unprofitable.
Yes 16 years and counting .
Jet fuel doubles and triples. Ravi backing Putin or just staying neutral on POB is a big no no.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/jet-cracks-soar-to-record-highs-as-iran-war-breaks-fuel-markets-200676345
Neutral , heck even Ron called me out as a russian agent and someone ( I think Alim ) said ” We know from your cheques are coming ” . For every post I made there were ten counters all dumb and stupid . Well , the proof of the pudding lies in the eating . Whom did little Donnie call up for help on Iran — Vlad the great . To the victor belongs the spoils .
Don called Vlad in order to relay a message to Tehran: clear the path true Hormuz or else next round of even more destruction (now urban-civilian) ahead..
The likely response from Iran: no way, actually we don’t have issues in martyring the whole ~90M pop in this thing, goodbye, click.
So, we have unusual situation at hand, Iran govs are indifferent to coming inferno. And Don, doesn’t mind inferno at all if proceeded quickly enough, which is still unsure %proposition, but odds getting better each day with new air raids anyway..
I can see that all of these flight cancellations would be a problem. Even the requirement that flights not go over Russia adds a huge amount of mileage for the flights. The higher jet fuel price and the lack of tourists coming back to the area are problems as well.
this is the point ive been making for years now—-
you cannot have luxury flying just for a privileged elite
I presume that some may have recoginezed me as HiH ( Hole in Head ) who posted extensively at POB . I told there that two scenario’s are a nightmare for Washington .
1 . Strait of Hormusz
2 . Taiwan and South China Sea .
Well the nightmare is here .
Why did I leave POB ? I was the only one who supported Vladimir Putin when the Ukraine war started in 2022 . As a matter of fact I said it will begin immediatly after the visit of Putin to Beijing . I exposed the lies of the West and was trolled ad infinitam by other members ( yeah , wheels are falling of Russian trucks etc ) . There was no problem with Ovi and Denise ( Denise makes good charts but has blinkers when it comes to geo politics ) , however the work they do is appreciated , however if you will observe it is now just and echo chamber . 5-6 posters arguing amongst themselves .
what is POB?
Peak Oil Barrel
I was in Moscow today and had a long and interesting conversation with my best expat friend. He is relatively well known due to a successful YT channel sympathetic to Russia (some videos 1M+ views). He started here with a Western outlook that gained him some acceptance in that part of Moscow that still has some attachment to the West. Had no interest in Eurasia. Well, two years into it the light went on and he is fully Eurasian now, with lots of interest in China and Iran. He wants to go to Iran and film, so I had to re-tell him about my Iranian trip last year. I had already told him but first time he was not interested.
I think I figured out POB=Peak Oil Barrel, and yes, those people have blinders on that will prevent them from having success and creating the liaisons that are needed for success. Meanwhile we Eurasians (and that includes Ravi) have brainstorming sessions every time we drink coffee., and they are all part of a major integration movement.
Is he Stefano Tiozzo?
Thanks
no.
The nigthmare number two will not happen . The failure of the Iron Dome in the war has sent the message . It is BS witha spray of Chanel . Donnie had better have some ideas or he can kiss the ring of the Emperor Xi .
P.S : Xi already showed him who is the boss with the rare earth metals .
Xi is bound home-side and issues strong warnings to Iran NOT to strike Gulfies infrastructure anymore.. i.e. hardly a position of strength vs the US.
The rare earth thing preceded the current situation (war in Gulf of this scale unimaginable then) and will be again subject to re-negotiation as soon as Iranian arsenal depletes close to zero stock, expected soonish.
As posted numerous times and to Xi credit he stockpiled energy, minerals, food, .. in gigantic volumes prior to this war, yet expecting polit-blockade/sanctions not hot war..
“Xi is bound home-side and issues strong warnings to Iran NOT to strike Gulfies infrastructure anymore.. i.e. hardly a position of strength vs the US”
Full caps, makes me dubious. I haven’t seen any such thing from Wang Yi, Guo Jiakun, or Mao Ning and certainly not Xi(I might be missing someone. Zhai Jun maybe?).
Calling for restraint, whilst squarely putting the blame in the correct place and confirming Iran’s right to defend itself as it sees fit, is not(no caps needed) in any way what you claim and I’ve seen nothing past that.
Who said this and where was it reported?
So far it sounds, at best, another dodgy Masoud Pezeshkian “translation”.
The “bound home-side” makes no sense to me, can you elucidate?
Maybe a link or two.
Well, for the intro I should have used phrase such as “..sitting pretty , stay put.. ” instead..
In terms of the subject matter, it’s not my fight that the [CHN] govs used in some of their latest proclamations towards the conflict also the part where calling for restrain in attacking the wider Gulfies in response, it’s day or two back easily googlable. Little surprise then, that the western msm made it almost a headline and throttled back the other parts of that statement with some lite criticism of the overall US-Israeli attack. So, don’t be angry with me who spotted this obvious weakness in their comm strategy..
“it’s day or two back easily googlable”
So google it and show me the part that you believe, says what you claim(from Xi no less).
“part where calling for restrain in attacking the wider Gulfies”
This bit, that you have repeated, without citation, I can find no mention of and you are also misusing “restraint” as there has been no emphasis on Iran when this kind of phrase is used. Quite the opposite and being that they name those in the wrong, there can be no honest confusion.
I’d be amazed if any Chinese official even hinted that Iran should not strike where they have been struck from. The Chinese people would call for their heads and the officials are well aware of how that ends.
Maybe this one(if real), as it would appear to have happened after the above and looks a perfect fit.
https://t.me/sepahcybery/135658
didn’t the Iranians knock out the radar systems of the Israelis
You might be thinking of the Hezbollah attack
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-destroys-strategic-facility-in-beit-shemesh–foota?utm_source=mango-searchx&utm_medium=title_and_relatives&utm_campaign=Hezbollah%20
But there have been so many, it’s hard to keep up.
From March 9
“Hezbollah missiles reach Al-Quds, destroy strategic IOF cyber site.”
“To retain its military power and reserve currency the US needs leverage to force China to provide it with rare earth minerals, and the US intends to use Iran’s oil as that leverage.“?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/05/cactus-view-of-the-iran-war/
“Somewhere in Beijing, inside the Ministry of Commerce headquarters on Chang’an Avenue, bureaucrats process export license applications for samarium, dysprosium, and terbium with the measured deliberation of customs officials who understand precisely what they are doing. They understand that the difference between a 7-day approval and a 45-day review represents the difference between industrial continuity and supply chain paralysis for the defense contractors building America’s military apparatus. They understand that a 120-day administrative hold, dressed in the language of regulatory compliance and technical review, achieves the same outcome as an embargo without the diplomatic cost of declaring one.“?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-186492719
“Remember when the narrative was that it was Russia totally reliant on Western-supplied parts in its weaponry? Here an American general literally admits the entire U.S. military structure would collapse in a day if China issued an embargo against them:”?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13551371/China-military-supplies-war.html
Delays are nearly as bad as not being able to get the critical mineral.
Trump announces a $ 300 billion refinery in Texas by Reliance( Ambani) of India . Even Ambani and Modi did not know about this . Trump is now blowing hot air to put lipstick on the pig . In the meanwhile the agri sector is dying . 25,000 tonnes of bannas stuck . Oh , fistfights for LPG gas cylinders are happening . One day and the collapse has just begin .
The situation is not good!
Live cam, Israel continues to get hammered by Iran!
Mine says “not available.”
This leads to a YouTube,Times of India channel. There are clips here not found other places, but I have doubts about them. They also come with sex photos, though I am generally blocked from such. I think Israel’s control over images exceeds even what we think.
It was legit, live feed that expired, no sex photos. It showed live aerial bombings taking place in Tel Aviv.
I enjoy your posts, not complaining! It’s just where it took me when I clicked on it– I suppose a bit of internet strangeness.
This is not a Live feed but a recap last night in Israel.
That’s temporary phenomenon only.
Most of the larger (and longer distance flying) rocketry has been destroyed a week ago in these bunker busting air raids. What has Iran left are the short range (few hundred kms) light rockets, which are hidden in fake shipping containers and parked inside cities. That’s all of their pity reserve now, so it’s over in few weeks or months time at max.
And if not, as already threatened, the decimation will continue (next time targets): hydro dams, city centers, power plants, .. and even eventually the big one, the US public would dig it anyways.
I’m afraid most of you still don’t get it, primarily it’s a [ war of cultures ], and the US is still the most openly brazen one out there. The Iranian “6D chess game” hippie-sect style choosing for decades building underground factories, silos full of stuff was waste of resources and inevitably colossal blunder now unfolding.
Yes, Hormuz complications (global) for months or max few yrs.
There is a reason why CHN stays away:
– they know IRAN lost big way
– they are not global warring culture (so they keep waiting for few more decades, hoping for their eventual econ-turn instead)
Thanks for the info Sun Tzu. If you keep this up, we’ll have to upgrade you to Pete Hegseth.
Pleasure is on my side.
Sometimes it’s necessary to play on contrarian part in the vast deserts of overwhelming conformity.. such as these day people even here (key PO forum) digging propaganda YT/X videos of substandard quality.
Time will tell.
Pete H. is a bufoonish PR persona only.
The war itself is being performed by true mil. professional personnel directed by “first principles” driven maga overlords; data funneled via Palantir and alike AI crunching on decades of detailed sat pictures database uncovering the mole hills across Iran. Moreover, they probably even ran predictive models how to best strike it given geology datasets to crumble these underground cathedrals with as few munition/air sorties as possible.
Does it equal surrender and or full scale occupation on the ground? Certainly NOT. But it sets the antagonist decades back and their patron US-competitor (CHN) into less beneficial position.
yes I would have to agree with you here Junior we are seeing an attack on Iran’s culture it is incompatible with the great reset .
No way man …. You are way off your rocker. If the straight stays closed for another two weeks it’s over. The u. S is a dead horse Israel will be gone. I don’t wish this but it’s reality. Maybe switch from npr or Fox News and you will see the truth…. If I was Iranian I would not want to die on my knees only standing up. Stop the abbreviations ! What does chn stand for?? China? Are you too lazy to type that out?!?
Providing arguments into the debate here would be appreciated. So far, you have put on the table exactly nothing of substance.
PS this is specialized topic high throughput information dense kind of forum hence various abbreviations have been used here for many yrs already..
“Providing arguments into the debate here would be appreciated. So far, you have put on the table exactly nothing of substance.”
Sam and Rodster both provided their argument, that you’re repeating unsubstantiated claims from compulsive liars as fact.
The US has used over 2 years of patriot supplies(in how many days).Tell us how many they make a year and where the necessary materials come from. How about THAADS. Half of them gone already and a decade to build, if the materials were available, which they are not(look at all those f35s without radar). The US is now having to take equipment from other fields because…
Winning, right?
2-3 days, right?
4-5 weeks, right?
8-10 weeks, right?
100 days, right?
6 months, right?
6 million minutes, right?(I’ll probably due of laughter if they come out with that).
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/54404/US-Faces-Mounting-Logistical-Crisis-as-Allies-Reject-Trump-s-Pleas-for-Help-in-Iran
Give some substance to your proclamations and tell us what makes you believe Iran, rather than the US is running out(6 months to beat an empty arsenal. Makes sense, right?). All the evidence points in the opposite direction(US navy skulking 1000km away).
My argument is that you are accusing others of your own crimes, when they point out that you provide no substance for your claims.
Let’s try this little nugget
“Most of the larger (and longer distance flying) rocketry has been destroyed a week ago in these bunker busting air raids”
I call bullshit, unless you can add some substantiation, because those missiles(not rocketry, a term I look forward to seeing you use when you describe western fluff) that were destroyed last June(according to the pedo) and a week ago(according to both of you) keep turning up in the squat and at US bases(according to real world evidence, that one side is desperately trying to hide).
Screaming idiocy from any of the US regime, doesn’t count as any kind of proof(you know that, right?).
The increasing regularity would suggest that the opposite of your claim is true(ask Ben Gvir if you can find him(take a bag)).
It’s “Russia is going to run out in 2 months” all over again and you might notice, it’s not Iran trying to communicate for a quick end. Strange that, considering they’re supposedly almost on empty. Oh, but they are crazy according to you, not the child murderers. Weird stance.
FF + others> Are you joking?
Clearly, I did build up my case on solid foundations of available material out there, which also has been linked and discussed by other in the past ~two weeks in terms of this very event.
Why should I spoon feed you again and again on repeat obvious stuff in every post, wtf.. ? What is your attention span, you can’t even read one or two pages back.. ?
The US govs/mil presented ~week ago the targeted underground sites in Iran, they have shown the various categories and range of their missiles, rocketry etc. Obviously, logically, the biggest sites housing the largest equipment, i.e. the long range missiles and their mobile launchers, and likely the overall assembly facilities there as well.
Logically, the attacks (raids) progressed from largest sites to be destroyed first to the smallest one detectable, which in practice means Iran is now left only with the short range options hidden in cities not as much in proper deep bunkers but in quasi dedicated parking spaces and cloaked surface depots only.
This was corroborated in recent days by revolutionary guard and other groupings PR videos when they were shooting ONLY from the truck beds and masked shipping container launch systems. These are not ~serious (peer opponent) weapons in the final analysis, and as I DID wrote earlier, yes perhaps they block Hormuz for additional few months upto ~2yrs max, that’s all. So, what..
In terms of Israel, the rockets are mostly discharged from close distance (Lebanon) again mostly low impact
cat. of charges. And if you watch the nightly vids carefully enough it often times shows how the defense shield(s) react by multiple impacts per the very same single target destroyed, i.e. prove there is still enough in the arsenal for their defense shield. Again most of the damage done IF some of them go eventually through the shield is of ~minimal impact, low cat. of weaponry.
Simply, Iran’s long term plan was to fire spectacular hi-grade stuff for months around the whole region and ONLY then eventually start blocking Hormuz. Evidently, it’s not going this way, mostly depleted way sooner in one week or two already.
How do you know anything? Where is your evidence that all of Irans munitions destroyed? Why isn’t the Navy escorting ships through. Why isn’t the strait open? Why is Israel still getting hit hard? Why isn’t Israel moving in??
Strategic victory is a victory that provides ‘long-term advantage to the victor and/or undermines the enemy’s ability to wage war’. That is a Wikipedia quote which I’m embarrassed to use so I’ll unembarrass myself by citing Clausewitz at length.But tl;dr, Iran has already strategically won A) because they have one and B) because they have thrown the whole global economy and tossed American fighting forces out of their bases. Now it’s just a matter of time before America flees, Palestine is released, and the world is more free. But don’t take my word on it. Read Clausewitz.
https://indi.ca/how-iran-has-strategically-won/
Do what I do. Just scroll past what Jr. posts.
It seems to me that old Donny boy has walked into a trap that he can’t get out of. 4 days, then 4 weeks, now until September.
It must be frustrating being a narcissist when you can’t control the outcome.
I think in Donny’s mushed brain fighting is just about throwing punches. He doesn’t understand why punching harder doesn’t equal “winning”.
I see that THAAD systems are being transferred from South Korea to the Middle East. The Duran did a segment about South Korea losing political capital with the Chinese when they were first deployed leading to commercial losses. A lot of pain for no long term gain…
AI is a black hole for money. Everyone wants it, but few are willing to pay for it
Generative AI is experiencing unprecedented growth in users. The problem is that the more people work with it, the less profitable it becomes
Today, nearly a billion people turn to artificial intelligence (AI) every week. Despite this, it is unable to support itself. At the end of the year, Altman’s company even admitted that it does not expect to turn a profit until 2030. Until then, losses will only accumulate.
https://www.trend.sk/technologie/ai-je-cierna-diera-peniaze-kazdy-ju-chce-malokto-nu-zaplati?itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_modul=trend_topbox&itm_position=1
Another crisis…
The Wildly Infectious Banana Plague
Asianometry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OsiD_s00RQ
I want to thank the folks at the Taiwan Banana Research Institute for hosting me on a visit, providing me with information about their research, and helping me collect video and image material.
I also want to thank friend of the show Franklin for suggesting this idea.
@severdislike4222
2 days ago
Welcome to “why mono-crops are dangerous” – banana
Larry Wilkerson thinks that will launch nuclear weapons into Iran as a result of an ill conceived idea to pick a fight with Iran it thought both Israel and the US would easily win. Surprise, surprise. Little wonder why the world is cheering on the Iranian’s.
Lawrence Wilkerson totally nails it. Trump can’t stick to a decision. He doesn’t have a clue. Now he is causing world trade to be wrecked because he has riled the Iranians so much that they are gravely hampering passage through the Strait of Hormuz. I well remember the early to mid 1970s in the UK, when we had to get the candles out on many an evening because the striking workers had turned the electricity off. I do not want to have to experience that again.
When are the Americans going to depose this senile president? It has to be done. How many assassination attempts has he faced so far? Will there be another, do you think, reante? I fear now that Trump will use emergency rule to cling on for years and turn into the Robert Mugabe of the USA. Remember how Mugabe turned Zimbabwe into a basket case that suffered from hyperinflation.
Meanwhile here in the UK, the Tory leaderess of the Opposition is cheerleading support for Trump. Foolish woman. Even worse, Tony Blair says we should support Trump to keep “the special relationship” alive. OMG. Wouldn’t you think he had learned his lesson by now? There is no “special relationship”. Do you agree, reante? The UK prime ministers like to big themselves up by imagining themselves partners of the big guys, whereas in truth they are just poodles.
Here in the UK it has been announced that a new series of banknotes is being prepared. The designs on the back will feature British wildlife, in keeping with the results of a public poll. Now Kemi Badenoch and a couple of populist newspapers are complaining that Winston Churchill will be removed from the back of the five pound note. I thought that Kemi Badenoch was supposed to be a conservative, not a reactionary.
in 2012 i put in writing the way the usa was headed….
to much derision…of course,
it took a bit longer than anticipated—–
—i take no pleasure in repeating my warning in retrospect
written by me, in 2012/13, Page 81, from my book The End of More
///Energy depletion is going to cause global economies to nosedive, and there will be a desperate grab for any lifeline of salvation, no matter how extreme.
The pattern is being set.
It may be only a matter of time before conditions worsen to the point where a theocratic dictatorship is all that’s on offer, and the American people might just grab at it in desperation. The basic structure of such political madness is already in place. Given the right circumstances it will establish itself by popular vote. When it does so it will not easily be got rid of.////
makes me feel physically sick to read it…because we are now in an energy war—just as hitler was in 1940—he didn’t have enough resources to sustain his war machine either….
and yes–he’s likely to declare a state of emergency so he can cling on to power indefinitely—he’s now recruited the dregs of society to form a private army to help him do it…
when he orders his militia to march into congress and close it, (temporaraily of course) who exactly will be there to tell him he can’t do that???
Perhaps you are seeing (correctly) too much into the distant future, and Donald is just one of several early innings..
The US might be wobbling in its role as as sole dominant super power, but the path to more distributed weight around the world could be still way longer (winding) route ahead than anticipated by “us” expedient collapsniks ..
Look around:
– petrodollar and trillions y/y debt still accepted (check)
– foreign mil. bases around the world (check)
– only timid verbal opposition in most of RoW (check)
– inner US situation calm on all fronts (check)
(states vs states, no pop malnutrition, ..)
..
.
agree—donnie is just an instrument in it all…
but debt is a collective tightrope—anchored at only one end
The uniparty serves Greater Israel. It will never oppose Trump as long as he is fighting for Greater Israel.
Strangely enough, even through it looks like Iran is in some sense winning, the indirect impacts seems to hit the Far East far more than the USA.
Israel is not doing as well as the US. It seems to be getting hit with some bombs and its oil field was bombed. It also has a problem of inadequate oil and water itself.
According to the internet, they invested a lot in renewables. I wonder how much those investments paid off for them.
the main thing is that Trump has a given us an extension for no. collapse
Trump has basically brought in a form of lockdown for the world.the world will survive for another 20 to 30 years thanks to these actions.
Yes, that’s a fitting a description: lockdown prescription of sorts.
But look at the costs implied or associated with this new re-shuffling of pecking order if you will. Europe will get (continues) massively impoverished in just few years say vs some parts of Asia. Similarly, ME to some extent and parts of RoW will be denied formerly assigned level of resources.
say all the continents such as Europe become third world people still need to eat and travel which Spurs the economy forward . A form of technocratic feudalism based on the days of old when colonialism flourished will keep the world going for another 20 to 30 years.Tough time is ahead for the West.
BS—–
our current economy runs on SURPLUS
Feudalism carried no surplus, anything like that went to your feudal overlord….
which is why he liived in a castle and you lived in a pigsty….
Electric scooters electric bikes electric cars people will choose these modes of travel just like you yourself Norm said in a previous post.
Electric – yes, but only Light Rail (tramway), to your Master’s fields for a day of back-breaking manual work, then back to your pigsty.
We had it enforced back in USSR – starting from 4th grade (Middle School) they were taking us by (dedicated on that day), large public buses to the kolkhoz fields far away, 10 miles at least – so that we would not escape (back home) on foot.
Each to his own, Kolchoz-Sovchoz..
Well, ~50yrs ago not many true permies in the West anyway.
So, your sorrow about ~forced school labor practices is misplaced argument.
These dayz even ~semi slave labor of say outlier such as NKorea is doing agribiz on way more sophisticated and (human labor) ergonomic levels.
The times have simply moved on.
x you guys got to go on field trips every day? RFKjr liking that idea a LOT.
Reante> the context of x-soviet’s ( baltica / -stan? ) story seems more like one full day trip instead of regular school, say only once per week? or it could have been even compressed like several dayz in a row .. but not for extra long haul (missing school)..
perhaps historically 1950-60’s (not enough spec machinery) there were focused “campaigns” per harvest so entire school closed off and went for a week or two on working assignment “vacation” helping out some agribiz at peak season in need for them..
In Cuba, Central America, Africa, Vietnam, .. it could have been way tougher like in months duration..
Right, thanks Jr. All hands on deck.
Painstakingly manual de-weeding of the sugar beets (hello – MG!) in April of each year – still shivering, recalling that. Cruel and unusual punishment. Kids of local military (usually ethnic Russians or some Far-East Asian species), were taken somewhere else (easier jobs – potatoes and apples collecting). Few days/week for 2-3 weeks every Spring and Autumn. Taken by specially dedicated public bus to kolkhoz fields far away (an hour drive or so on slow rural roads, so that juvenile slaves would not run home on foot). Then collecting same sugar beets and/or potatoes in October (easier, almost fun work in open-air). Minimal mechanization (diesel-powered tractors, unique expensive French-made one for planting those damned sugar beets). What is currently “Western Ukraine” back in 1980s. Last time taken to the beet fields in early 1991 or so. F them all.
Sweet x it’s like you grew up homesteading, just scaled up. All the way up. I’m jealous. We young Western anticapitalists love to romanticize Communism so your antipathy towards it only makes that romance stronger.
I’ll post this extract from Yeats again, not because it was one of Fast Eddy’s favorites, but because I have a feeling that a lot of people still don’t fully appreciate the poetic je ne sais quoi of our common situation living in a finite world and coming up against limits.
You can’t have an “end of more” situation without considerable of strife and turbulence. Unlike elementary school children dancing around the chairs on a parquet floor while teacher plays the piano, the players in our global game hate being deprived of their chairs and will not give them up gracefully.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
— W.B Yeats (1919)
Six years ago, Yasmine Abida was one of many people who recalled this poem as they attempted to come to terms with seeing the world turned upside down. I don’t agree with everything she wrote here, but I appreciate her attempt to discern and explain what Yeats was raving on about:
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“Things fall apart; the center cannot hold.” This phrase from W.B. Yeats’ The Second Coming has been resonating in my mind for the last nine months, whenever I scroll through my newsfeed, turn on the TV and even during small talk. Yeats also wrote it in the face of disaster: the wake of the First World War, the Bolshevik Revolution, political unrest in Ireland and while watching his pregnant wife close to death during the deadly second wave of the Spanish flu. It paints a bleak image of humankind, but is also a reminder of the social ills of modern society and the inevitable collapse of systems, neatly packaged in a cyclical understanding of history. It is this poem, despite being written a hundred years ago, that helps me rationalize 2020, in all its absurdity…..
This year, we have seen things fall apart. We have also witnessed the unrestrained nature of events, “the blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere.” Here, “loosed” portrays the image of a wild animal released from a cage, suggesting why we must question our impression of the stability of systems, as they are fragile by nature. On Jan. 3, #WW3 was trending on Twitter. And now, a pandemic, a stock market crash, explosions, political crises, natural disasters, widespread protests, a famine, murder hornets and three UFO videos later, we find ourselves nearing September, nervously awaiting the grand finale…..
Yeats’ prophecy asserts that when changes occur, chaos and confusion inevitably follow, implied by “the turning and turning of the widening gyre.” This results in complete distortions of our worldviews, stripping us of any illusion of stability. Parallel to the unprecedented changes that have occurred in the last few months, one may also think that events in history are possibly repeating themselves…….
Despite having the world in the palm of our hands and reaping the benefits of global awareness, Yeats predicted society’s desensitization to chaos and violence. As a reaction to collectively witnessing destruction and failing to prevent it, Yeats wrote ominously: “the ceremony of innocence is drowned,” deeming innocence obsolete. And when he wrote “The best lack all conviction” he was referring to the silent people, the bystanders, and those on the opposite spectrum of the “righteous of the nation.” In mentioning the voices that have silenced themselves, he suggests that the existence of evil is not only in the systems in which we are embedded, but is also embedded in us. This is a gut-wrenching reality and the core relevance of the poem for understanding the dystopian times we live in today.
https://www.thegazelle.org/issue/181/things-fall-apart-understanding-2020-through-poetry
I dare say that I really don’t like those last two lines. They are the epitome of the worldly view that everybody wants to rule the world.
Conviction to him is just poetic code for the ability to affect world events. In reality, the best people never lack conviction, they just refuse the false conviction that they have the right to affect the lives of people they’ve never met before.
I get that this poem is a work of impressionism but it still doesn’t work for me because of its political grounding. Another one bites the dust.
I think Yeats is trying to convey the idea that ‘the best’ are politically sceptical, whilst ‘the worst’ are those who blindly adhere to ideologies.
Of course, this reflects his perspective as a comfortable bourgeois who fears the violence of the masses and anything that might disturb his serene, word-play-filled existence.
Anyway I believe one should never read too much into a poem, nor take it too seriously, as poets tend to be among the most mentally confused people in this world, and most of them know as much about politics as my cat Pastel.
I’m afraid I hadn’t thought of any political perspectives in the poem.
Funny. Yeah maybe I was overthinking it.
beautiful words I never understood
This poem by Yeats can be paired nicely with Jabberwocky by Louis Carrol, since that also contains the rather unusual word “gyre”.
While this one is less overtly political, it is a tale of heroism, and you can imagine your favorite contemporary villain—such a Trump, Putin, Bibi, or the Ayatollah Whoever, as the Jabberwock, and your hero as the beamish boy.
’Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.
“Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!”
He took his vorpal sword in hand;
Long time the manxome foe he sought—
So rested he by the Tumtum tree
And stood awhile in thought.
And, as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!
One, two! One, two! And through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.
“And hast thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!”
He chortled in his joy.
’Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.
Jabberwocky by Lewis Carroll – Read by John Gielgud
The US’s ability to carry on wars in the Middle East has fallen.
Israel’s oil ability being taken down.
Media’s coverage of what is happening in Israel is being hidden from the world by rules. Media covers hits in other countries. American people cannot tell how unjust this war is.
Wilkerson is concerned about Israel using a nuclear weapon.