As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
Top buyers of US refined products in February in kbpd (total exports 6.973mbpd)
Mexico 1,101
China 744
Japan 583
Canada 522
Please note this is refined products not crude .
Top buyers of US crude in February in kbpd (total exports 4.345mbpd)
Netherlands 1,379
South Korea 496
Canada 488
Taiwan 303
Nigeria 229
This crude oil .
US crude imports from Venezuela were at 231kbpd in February vs 200kbpd in January – EIA
500Kbpd went to India
200 Kbpd went to other Latin American countries ;
Total 900,000 Kbpd
The best number crunching on US oil inventory . The draw down is 12 million barrels in a week . It will be more because the refined products and export will continue to rise . This happened because the crude oil imports were less by 5mbpd . SPR draw was 7mbpd . The companies used 5 mbpd from commercial inventory .
https://www.hfir.com/p/public-memo-i-cant-believe-we-are
Elections are over and the price of LPG increased by 42% . Next Diesel and Petrol .
https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/commercial-lpg-price-hike-crude-oil-hormuz-risks-govt-strategy-domestic-gas-cyliner-increase-2904107-2026-05-01
China will export 500,000 tonnes = 3.5 million barrels of refined products in ONE month = 115,000 barrels per day =480000 gallons = 32,000 cars per day in SE Asia . The world is celebrating.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-reopens-fuel-export-spigot-offering-relief-asian-buyers
Ancient DNA reveals a lost population near Paris replaced by strangers
“Ancient DNA from a tomb near Paris reveals a shocking prehistoric reset: one population vanished and was replaced by newcomers from the south. The two groups show no genetic connection, signaling a major upheaval around 3000 BC. Disease, including early plague, likely played a role, but wasn’t the only cause. The change also reshaped society, ending tightly knit family burials and coinciding with the disappearance of Europe’s megalith builders.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260421042800.htm
Dr. Suneel Dhand would like to draw our attention to the coming metabolic apocalypse.
If he’s right, the USA, the UK, and several other countries are going to be swamped with early-onset diabetes, heart trouble, cancer, dementia, and all sorts of other obesity-related health issues over the next 10 to 20 years.
With around half of American children now obese enough to resemble dumplings, I can only see this as a plan by the ruling Morlockracy to fatten up their Eloy barnyard animals prior to harvesting 🙂
with all the shots giving out. Surprised we even need hospitals anymore.
🙂
It’s already happening in the UK and as you read the article it has more to do with economics and government policies than a solely behavioral issue which is what the medical community loves to paint it as.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/healthy-life-expectancy-in-the-uk-declined-by-2-years-in-past-decade/
The damage that Iran did to USA military bases and infrastructure across the region is only just beginning to come out in the USA media. Iran absolutely trashed USA military capacity across the Middle East.
The USA ‘plan’ was to destroy Iranian military capacity as fast as possible – but the opposite happened. The USA is reduced to a ‘ceasefire’ and pretending that it is the USA that is blocking the Strait while Iranian ships conduct business as usual and the rest don’t. Iran won and the USA and Israel lost.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-strikes-caused-quot-far-worse-quot-damage-to-us-bases-than-reported-officials-say-11410545
US Bases Suffered Massive Damage In Iran Strikes, Repair May Cost Billions: Report
US military bases and equipment in the Persian Gulf have been hit much harder by recent Iranian strikes than initially reported, according to several US officials and people familiar with the situation.
The extent of the destruction is much greater than what has been publicly shared so far and the repair is expected to cost billions of dollars, the officials told NBC News.
Iran has carried out strikes across several countries in the region since the war began on February 28. These attacks hit important military sites in at least seven countries, including storage warehouses, command centres where operations are managed, aircraft hangars, and systems used for satellite communication.
It also damaged runways, radar systems, and even some aircraft, which are all critical for military movement and surveillance. In one case, even an older Iranian F-5 fighter jet was able to get through and carry out a strike despite powerful US air defence systems.
The US Defence Department has not shared full details about how much damage was actually caused by the Iranian strikes. Even the US Central Command, which handles military operations in that region, refused to comment on the extent of the damage.
Some Republican lawmakers are angered and frustrated over the lack of transparency. One aide even said that despite asking for weeks, they still don’t know the full picture, especially at a time when the Pentagon is asking for a record-high budget.
“No one knows anything. And it’s not for lack of asking. We have been asking for weeks and not getting specifics, even as the Pentagon is asking for a record high budget,” he said.
*
It is now coming out that the USA lost ‘dozens’ of aircraft to Iran – the ones that they sell to other states. Iran destroyed everything, air bases, naval bases, command centres, radar systems, satellite systems, missile defence systems &c.
It all proved to be sitting ducks to Iranian missiles – the ones that we were told really aren’t all that. That raises serious questions about the viability of NATO kit and infrastructure, which is probably about the last thing that is going to headline.
Trump blew it big time, and the unnecessary, unprovoked and illegal war on Iran has shown the world just how ‘powerful’ the USA really is. China will be studying every second of what happened to learn all the lessons. What a disaster!
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5849646-iran-damage-us-military-bases/
Six people familiar with the damage said runways, high-end radar systems, dozens of aircraft, warehouses, command headquarters, aircraft hangars and satellite communications infrastructure were struck by Iranian forces in an interview with NBC News.
The destruction spans across several countries in the Middle East and could cost up to $5 billion to repair.
The projected price tag does not include fixes to radar systems, weapons systems, aircraft and other equipment that were either impaired or rendered unsalvageable as a result of Iranian strikes, the outlet reported.
Initial damage was caused to U.S. base Camp Buehring in Kuwait by an Iranian F-5 fighter jet within the first few days of the war, which began Feb. 28 with a series of U.S.-Israeli strikes.
Al Dhafra Air Base and Al Ruwais military base in the United Arab Emirates recorded damage to fuel storage, a medical clinic, hangars and barracks in addition to other warehouses and buildings.
Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia; Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan; and Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring and Shuaiba Port in Kuwait also saw U.S. resources damaged.
Three officials told NBC News there was later extensive damage to the headquarters building for the U.S. Navy in Bahrain and at least two air defense systems.
Repairs to the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters could total $200 million alone, one congressional official told The New York Times following a Pentagon assessment.
An external assessment from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) shows Iranian forces also struck Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, a runway at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and a munitions storage facility at a military base in northern Iraq, per NBC.
“As part of Epic Fury, the potential future costs to rebuild American military infrastructure overseas may include repair, reconstruction, outright replacement, or even abandonment/decommissioning of locales,” Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at AEI, told the outlet.
“War damage also includes estimated costs for infrastructure that is unsalvageable,” she added.
A win for US oligarchs.They will make billions off of the repair, replacement, expansion.
It’s a win for the DA that needs to systematically weaken the atavistic hegemon vehicle ahead of Phase 2.
Now you’re confusing me. The DA? I thought they were the Hand.
For me, the DA will always be the guy who is always getting in the way of police detectives and private eyes in Raymond Chandler novels.
If the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda can’t supplant the district attorney acronym then I might as well just retire. 🙂
The Hand militarily weakening the US hegemon in particular is important as an insurance policy that military factions stay humble further down the line during Phase 2 as the Hand itself begins to weaken. That weakening began with all the weapons shipped to Ukraine and continues now with the Big Nuclear Scare Iran conflict.
Thanks for the clarification. I will absorb it in time, just as I have the Hand and the BNS—which I used to think were a Korean boy band. 🙂
And please, don’t mind me. I’ve retired already. To Bedlam. I’m literally out of the Ark.
NPDA, all according to Degrowth Gospel by reante…
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/30/pete-hegseth-iran-war-hearing
Hegseth ‘dangerously exaggerated’ US military triumph in Iran, Senate hears
Senator Jack Reed says at hearing that defense secretary failed to give Trump accurate picture of war in Iran
Pete Hegseth has failed to give Donald Trump an accurate picture of the war on Iran while resorting to “dangerously exaggerated” statements to create an inaccurate picture of a US military triumph, a senior Democrat told a Capitol Hill hearing on Thursday.
Jack Reed, the ranking Democrat on the Senate armed services committee, told Hegseth, the defense secretary, that far from victory, US citizens were having to bear the cost of a war they did not support in the form of increased fuel prices.
“American families are bearing the cost of a war they wanted nothing to do with and have gained nothing from and yet, Secretary Hegseth, you declared victory a month ago,” said Reed, a senator from Rhode Island.
The comments came at the opening of the second successive day of congressional testimony from Hegseth and Dan Caine, the chair of the US armed forces’ joint chiefs of staff, who are testifying over the Pentagon’s record $1.45tn military budget submission.
As with the previous day’s appearance before the equivalent committee in the House of Representatives, the hearing quickly devolved into confrontation over the war with Iran, which has become stalemated after eight weeks of fighting and seen the regime in Tehran close the strategically vital strait of Hormuz.
Protesters briefly interrupted the hearing as Hegseth made an opening statement. Shouts of “war criminal” and “despicable” were heard before the protesters were expelled and proceedings resumed.
Reed immediately went on the offensive, accusing Trump of going to war without a “coherent strategy” while declining to “make a case to the American people or consult Congress”.
But his statement reserved the fiercest personal criticism for Hegseth, who stood accused of failing to give Trump essential information or advice, while pursuing a personal agenda as service personnel were injured or killed in battle.
“The problem with your statements, Mr Secretary, is they are dangerously exaggerated,” Reed said. “Iran’s hard line regime remains in place. It still retains stockpiles of enriched uranium, and its nuclear program remains viable.
“I am concerned that you have been telling the President what he wants to hear instead of what he needs to hear. Bold assurances of success are a disservice to both the commander in chief and the troops who risked their lives based on them. Our military has performed heroically, but military force without a sound strategy is a path to long-term defeat.”
Reed also seized on Hegseth’s often bellicose rhetoric, in which he has disparaged the need for rules of engagement and vowed to pursue Iranians “no mercy”.
“Too often you have made dangerous statements that are counterproductive to the mission you boasted about,” he said. “Quote, ‘no stupid rules of engagement’, just days after hundreds of Iranian school girls were tragically killed in a missile strike, you have made troubling statements about showing no mercy and no quarter to the Iranians orders that would constitute war crimes.”
He said that while US forces were in harms way Hegseth had devoted his time to personal priorities, including overhauling the Pentagon’s chaplain corps and services, cancelling flu vaccine requirements and barring service personnel from attending certain universities.
Reed also criticised Hegseth’s decision this week to invite the singer and rapper, Kid Rock, to an army base for what he called a “joy ride” on an Apache helicopter, as well as for firing multiple senior commanders – frequently on the basis of race or gender – and blocking the promotions of others.
“You are hollowing out our military defensive experience and highest performing senior officers while making young officers wonder if they should continue to serve,” he said.
Hegseth reprised criticisms he had made of Democrats and “some” Republicans at Wednesday’s hearing, when he had called critics of the war effort “reckless, feckless and defeatist”.
“As I said yesterday, and I’ll say it again today, the biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless naysayers and defeatist words of congressional Democrats and some Republicans,” he said.
He dismissed critics as “defeatists from the cheap seats who two months in, seek to undermine the incredible efforts that have been undertaken and the historic nature of taking on a 47-year threat with the courage no other President has had, to great success and great opportunity for preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon”.
Hegseth later clashed with two other Democrats, Kirsten Gillibrand and Richard Blumenthal, over his claims that the war had widespread public support and had achieved its goals in militarily defeating Iran.
Gillibrand, a senator from New York, told him: “I don’t know if you fully appreciate how much the American people do not support this war. It’s an unauthorized war … Why do you continue to prosecute a war that the American war aren’t behind.”
Hegseth replied: “I believe we do have the support of the American people.”
Opinion polls have repeatedly indicated that a majority of the US public opposes the war, with many concerned about its economic consequences and the risks of a broader conflict.
Blumenthal, a senator from Connecticut, said: “I know you have characterized this war as an astonishing military success, but the American people aren’t buying it. One point is irrefutable, which is, America never succeeds in war unless the American people are behind and if what you’re seeing as success now is winning, I would hate to see what losing looks like.”
He then tried to change the subject, asking Hegseth if he agreed with an assertion by Trump on Thursday that Ukraine had been “militarily defeated” by Russia.
However, the defense secretary sidestepped the question and instead appeared sufficiently stung by Blumenthal’s criticism into admitting that public support for the Iran campaign was less solid than he claimed – for which he blamed Democrats and the media.
“The negative nature in which you characterize the incredible and historic effort in Iran is part of the reason, senator, why the American people view it the way they do,” Hegseth said.
This is a really good line by Senator Blumental, “if what you’re seeing as success now is winning, I would hate to see what losing looks like.”
Bout to find out!
It appears the supreme leader of Iran has released a statement saying Iran will use nuclear power in defense of Iran.
The statement was made while he was talking about all of Irans assets political economic to defend Iran. it is unclear how good the translation is. Unclear whether he was confusing strength with defense.
It doesn’t really matter from one perspective. The maximalists will seize this as a reason the only acceptable outcome includes no enrichment for Iran and surrender of the enriched material. no amount of clarification will change this. Additionally this serves to justify the decision to go to war itself.
There was no video supporting Hegseths claim he has been “maimed and disfigured”.
If the translation is accurate it could be construed as a disclosure Iran possessing a nuclear weapon now. Nuclear power was referenced along with other things existing in the present.
I believe the guy misspoke. A announcement like this wouldn’t be made casually three sentences down. I believe he meant to affirm Irans intent to enrich nuclear material as part of Irans overall strength. If the translation is accurate that’s not what he said. He said to defend Iran. The guy is probably more than a bit scrambled from his injuries. On the other hand apparently he is not completely apposed to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons like his father was.
Im afraid this increases the detant already present. Two sides presenting multiple absolute demands with none acceptable to the other. Apparently there is no censorship of the supreme leader. If there was I believe this statement would have been canned.
All the while energy cessation out of the strait accelerates and intensifies what is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/live/antJCYNLZbE?si=LRJK3WyA_lztK0vg
The Prof. Mearsheimer says that the original statement is in Farsi. They don’t speak the language. This is a translation that might not be right. It does sound like a strange thing to drop into a speech, a ways in, if he meant nuclear weapons.
bad translation
it was
will defend our nuclear
not
will use nuclear to defend
Thanks! Useful to know.
No another Blazing Saddles self-hostage crisis then. Too bad.
Closing the strait with Bushehr?
The reality about humans is we are information deleting machines. Our framework that we operate on is created by what’s left after deletion. A more macro example of this is the pundits we select and I am no exception. Amongst the amateur turned pro analyst Nate is one of my favorites .
https://youtu.be/3ycDfQODMj0?si=cTqzAiS3meKiF4ME
I do enjoy Nate. He has taken Gail’s advice family and farming. He rightly keeps a low profile on the family and the farm.
I looked through the transcript, but I didn’t find a lot of interest. He says that cease fires allow nations to regroup and escalate the warfare after the cease fire is over. He says that other countries could join into the battle. He mentions the UK in particular perhaps wanting to be on the side of the US.
I used a comment with timestamps to go to about minute 56. Nate says, regarding preparedness, “Don’t be Captain Save-A-Ho cuz it will bite you in the ass.” Lol. Collapse inverts everything including chivalry. Open carry and, after assessing the area for an ambush, tell the second woman to disarm and then back off a good distance so that you can disarm the injured one before assessing her.
A coyote was chirping at my mutt last year for a date about 100 yards out. He was down. Ears up tail wagging. When I shoed her off two of her comrades emerged from the ditch.
This ⬆
Oh yeah nice! I had a fellow sheep farmer tell me about a coyote pack luring in one of his livestock dogs just like that. They sound so sweet to the ears though.
I will try to follow factual Selco’s advice: make sure neither one comes back, bringing their “friends” with them to mercilessly pay back for injuries and/or humiliation.
(for the record, Selco never advised anything illegal/violent, but implied more than clearly, what humiliated and injured enemies will eagerly do to you and yours, when they eventually return with support).
No warning shots – it’s that simple (and it’s that hard).
Just watched a video that suggests the reason Russia is going slow is that the oligarchs are making money. I would say likewise the US oligarchs are making money and have no need to “win”. The Chinese funnel money to the oligarchs from the military without even needing a war. The European oligarchs need a military and military factories so they can partake in the bonfire of the vanities.
All is well with the world it is working just as designed.
I am so looking forward to 2039 when Merz rides into Moscow on a German tank.
Hanging upside down from the turret?
We can hope.
I posted it down lthere
https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2049898179240267898
@Glenn_Diesen
Perm was attacked today, about 1500-1800km from Ukraine. It is ridiculous to believe that these attacks on Russia are done solely by Ukraine. We are led by lunatics who will surely scream “unprovoked” when a powerful retaliation comes.
And from the comments:
@Jamesgreen22516
Until russia does something then this will keep happening. Ive been saying it for years, nato know they can keep hitting russia while hiding behind Ukraine&nato laugh because they know russia won’t do nothing. If this was the usa this was happening to they would react immediately
If the US is behind them (or even if it isn’t), Russia will want to retaliate.
“After 390 Days in the “Hornet’s Nest”: America’s Newest Supercarrier “Gerald Ford” Leaves Middle East to Heal War Wounds .”
Unsustainable as per my earlier post .
Some detail– there is not a carrier but a carrier group that supports these super carriers . This includes smaller ships that are needed to protect the main carrier from submarines etc . The strength of a carrier group is 7500 personnel .— Larry Johnson .
Well 7500 less mouths to feed .
https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/news/2026/04/30/after-390-days-in-the-hornets-nest-americas-newest-supercarrier-gerald-ford-leaves-middle-east-to-heal-war-wounds/
This is the ship with the laundry fire problem. I think it is a ship that has not been able to feed its crew adequately. Withdrawing seems like an easy decision.
You do not realize the extent of the say “in war truth is the first casualty” until you see clogged toilets and creeklets of slurry recast as “war wounds”.
What happens when the people holding the other side of the oil shorts don’t get paid?
What happened when the people holding CDS for Greek bonds didn’t get paid in 2008.
Nothing.
If anyone big needs cash to stay afloat they get that cash. The casino doesn’t pay out . No one talks about the default. Bond holders taking a haircut is default. That does not matter. It didn’t matter with credit suisse. Coco bonds marked to zero. The people holding them could take the hit.All that matters is triage and that triage works.
Why didn’t oil prices surge when Libya got taken down? These are operations. Things are necessary in operations. Life support functions. These are provided temporarily
The operation is either a success or a failure. The life support is temporary either way.
The life support temporarily provides conditions necessary for the possibility of success in the operation. Oxygen to the brain. Short term affordability in oil price. Anesthesia. hese things must be provided to create the possibility of success on the operation. Their cost is part of the cost of the operation. The organism being able to provide for itself these conditions without external temporary measures is part of how success is measured. Military merges with economic merges with finance in big operations.
Yes and no. The only reason COVID happened was because they needed an excuse to print. I think the only reason this war happened is because they will soon need an excuse to print. The COVID money has dried up.
https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/
Long time no see.
But, no, as I said the other day, with the plandemic they blew bubbles — I do not like the term “printed” as used — into (artificial) demand destruction. Doing that netted 30% petrodollar inflation. You can’t do that into (artificial) supply destruction. Obviously.
The policy choice on response to the opposite of the plandemic’s demand destruction is the opposite of bubble blowing. That’s why Kevin Warsh was selected.
I’m all for deflation, it should have occurred in 2008. Why do you expect that to be an allowed outcome now? It would utterly destroy the democrat party because anyone who votes for them is either a billionaire or on welfare or working in a program that provides welfare.
Because it’s now the superior option. The only option. High to hyperinflation of the petrodollar makes already scarce oil extremely unaffordable by destroying the purchasing power of the reserve currency. Deflation makes scarce oil much less affordable due to credit credit destruction but nevertheless increases the real value of the reserve currency relative to oil, which is what you want. Then when Stablecoins are added as a parallel petrodollar that makes dollar forex liquidity limitless, the picture improves somewhat.
Deflation is what you want because you know it’s the right thing to do to best manage the situation. The crux of the issue is that your wanting deflation during the GFC was mistaken. That would have been the wrong call. We didn’t foresee the unconventional oil bubble. Deflation at that point would have started civilizational collapse. Monetary policy is not political, it’s structural. And it’s extremely competent. It always chases MPP.
Collapse inverts everything and deflation is what chases Collapse MPP by maximizing reserve currency maximum power (real value). And it doesn’t hurt that the Elites are also savers, though the stakes are much bigger than that.
This article gives a very nice summary of all the events that led up to the COVID shutdown, including “Event 101” to train the workers. The author, Fabio Vighi, is an Italian economist whose work we have seen before.
It starts in June 2019 and built up quickly:
June 2019: In its Annual Economic Report, the Swiss-based Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the ‘Central Bank of all central banks’, sets the international alarm bells ringing. The document highlights “overheating […] in the leveraged loan market”, where “credit standards have been deteriorating” and “collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have surged – reminiscent of the steep rise in collateralized debt obligations [CDOs] that amplified the subprime crisis [in 2008].” Simply stated, the belly of the financial industry is once again full of junk.
It was good to be reminded of this article by Vighi. I read it with nodding approval when it came out in 2021 but had forgotten all about it.
The mainstream narrative should therefore be reversed: the stock market did not collapse (in March 2020) because lockdowns had to be imposed; rather, lockdowns had to be imposed because financial markets were collapsing. With lockdowns came the suspension of business transactions, which drained the demand for credit and stopped the contagion. In other words, restructuring the financial architecture through extraordinary monetary policy was contingent on the economy’s engine being turned off. Had the enormous mass of liquidity pumped into the financial sector reached transactions on the ground, a monetary tsunami with catastrophic consequences would have been unleashed.
The above observation makes a lot of sense. While closing down significant parts of the economy, governments were dropping free money lots of people and organizations from helicopters. I personally was hit on the head by two bales of cash: one in 2020 as “compensation for income lost due to the disruption,” and the other in 2021 to help with “recovery.” I thought at the time that if even tiny little people like me were receiving free cash from the Government for the asking, imagine how many zillions the major players must have been getting?
You didn’t have to pay your mortgage, rent, student loans, all because of a “virus”. QE in larger amounts then 08. It you could see it coming at the end of 2018 when the markets were plunging around Christmas. Then Powell begins to cut rates and ends QT. Then repo markets start to blow up again end of summer 2019. If you’d been waiting for that moment since the end of 08 and it was obvious, then the “virus” was hair pullingly frustrating and also genius (for them) at the same time. And if you spoke out against the actions you immediately became a social outcast.
The helicopter money was not evenly parceled out, it’s true. And countless people’s livelihoods were destroyed in 2020 and 21 and with small businesses gutted and working people living “in the red” facing extremely hard times in many countries around the world.
Since I am of a nervous disposition, have no rich relations to depend on, and have been self-employed for nearly 40 years, I long ago left the rat race by making it a top priority to escape the rent and mortgage trap. I know not everyone has the opportunity to do this, but I wanted to do it enough to make a tangible commitment to reaching full home ownership, zero debt, and living within my means.
Achieving this goal early was very helpful to me during the plandemic as I don’t have enough hair to pull anymore. I’ve always worried about money and still do, but at this point it’s more of a lifestyle choice for me than a necessity.
I looked up Libya oil production. I got as high as 1.8 million bbd in 2008 and fell to 1.7 million bpd in 2009 and 2010. In 2011, the Libyan civil war took place. It was at the time the NATO intervention and the ousting of Muammar al-Qaddafi. It was also about the time of food shortages and the “Arab Spring” problems. Oil production fell to 0.5 million bpd in 2011. Production rebounded to 1.4 million bpd in 2012 and fell again to 1.0 million bpd in 2013.
Between 2014 and 2020 is called the time of the second Libyan civil war. Production bounced up and down between 0.5 million bpd and 1.1 million bpd during this period. In the 2021 to 2025 period production is a bit more stable, between 1.0 and 1.4 million bpd. But production never got back up to 1.7 or 1.8 million bpd again.
My guess is that Libyan oil production was already past peak in 2009 and 2010. High population was no doubt also a problem. International interference didn’t help the problem, but the area was likely near collapse regardless.
The reason oil prices didn’t surge is basically because Libya is a very small player in world oil supply. Its production was back up the next year. Likely, there was not huge damage to Libya’s oil fields.
My understanding of the Libya problem . Yes , it was past peak but had more than enough revenue to support the Libya’s population . The problem was
ENI (Italy) and TOTAL ( France ) refineries were configured to refine Libyan oil . Gadhaffi wanted to introduce the ” golden Dinar ” in MENA so that all resources could be sold tied to gold and not to paper USD . He had to go , just like Saddam . Of course as usual , we are bringing democracy and stopping nuclear bombs is the excuse . Not that his overthrow would reverse ” the peak ” . You cannot cheat geology in the oilfield .
Thank you Gail for your effort in your response. As shown every aspect of your work is done with extreme attempt to demonstrate objectivity. The majority of my comments are off the cuff re speculation. Sometimes humor. My sister has told me it took her years to understand my humor. I mean no disrespect. Perhaps Inappropriate to the character of the blog?
I find it interesting to go back and look at what oil supply looked like over the years, in a country such as Libya. If the country is post peak, and oil prices are low, as an oil exporter, Libya is in terrible shape for supporting an ever-increasing population.
Very well done talk on the Iranian fiasco
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fOvNCDwpqM
Strategic SUICIDE: The Iran TRAP That Ends US Hegemony | Prof. Steven Starr
One of the best ones I listen to yet…enjoy..
I agree that your link provides a very good video. It includes a particularly good section on the Hegseth Christian Zionism push. At 15:14, it shows Hegseth in a bathing suit, with a Jerusalem Cross tattoo like the Crusaders wore on his chest. It also features leaders reading from secular works that “sound like” the Bible, but are not.
Also, at 27:29, it talks about Putin possibly retaliating against European drone makers. It shows a map of European target cities that Putin has under consideration. The cities are all over, including the UK.
There are some people here who say Putin is in cahoots with TPTB and this interview by Stanley Doctorow corroborates that
https://youtu.be/yaI2NPIz9rg?si=zDTPJkWFDzmuUDtQ
But without this the world enters mad max.
The whole purpose of this whole circus is to cheat the Global South their rights to survive, and to keep the resources for the benefit of the betterdeveloped areas of the world since only they can advanc civilization.
The rest of the world need not apply.
It is already too late for at least 1 billion. By end of the year, the pop of earth will fall under 7 billion again, or where the world stood at 2011.
However, without people like Putin’s oligarchs, the world pop could have fallen over 90% by end of the year as Bill Gaede had predicted for a long time.
Putin has always been seen as a globalist. However even if he wasn’t you don’t or won’t get much accomplished without getting along. Hence the movie “Mr Smith goes to Washington”.
A politician can talk a good game but once elected, he has to deal with those already there who control things because they have been bribed. It’s in every country.
Ukraine is getting stronger and it is hitting more important targets in Russia, but Putin’s oligarchs would rather continue the war than end Ukraine and end the threat against Russia
Ukraine IS NOT getting stronger. I don’t know where you are getting that idea from. Launching drones is one thing but taking land is another. Russia is in control and taking over more territories held by Ukraine. Again, Putin went into this as a special military operation and not a war. Russia views Ukrainians as brothers, hence it’s a civil war. That is how Putin views it.
Dead soldier swap is a good indicator on battle losses and according to reports, Ukraine is suffering an 8 to 1 loss in men compared to Russia as evidenced by the dead bodies Ukraine and Russia exchange.
Then there’s the Ukraine recruiters who are forcibly pulling young fighting aged men off the streets into vans to fight on the frontlines. Zelensky is demanding that Ukrainian men of fighting age who fled to the EU to fight as well as the EU threatening to find and deport them suggest Ukraine is in trouble. Those are not the tactics of a Nation who is getting stronger on the battlefield.
There are also reports of Russian solders finding themselves fighting against fewer Ukrainian solders in key areas. Lastly, there are other reports of Ukrainian solders so exhausted because of the lack of manpower that they are found emaciated because supplies cannot reach them.
None of those are a sign of Ukraine getting stronger, quite just the opposite!
This must Putin’s favorite Beatles song.
You can imagine him singing it in the bathtub.
“Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
They leave the West behind
And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
That Georgia’s always on my my my my my my mind!”
This is a live performance by Paul McCartney and his band in Red Square.
Putin puts in a cameo appearance. Him and Paul look like best buddies.
“The Belgian government signed a letter of intent with ENGIE and Electrabel to pursue exclusive talks for a state takeover of all seven reactors at the Doel and Tihange plants, including staff, assets, and decommissioning duties. This reverses the 2025 nuclear phase-out after parliament repealed the 2003 law amid surging energy needs from industry, data centers, and global supply shocks like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Only the newest reactors operate now until 2035, but experts say restarts for older units could add low-carbon power within 1-2 years, though critics flag costs and waste risks.”
The public will pay for the clean up .
Where does the uranium come from? Supply was already low. Now sulfur supplies are low. Sulfur is used in the extraction of at least some uranium.
The reactors were run by Engie formerly Electrabel . They had a tie up with EDF the French nuclear reactor corporation . They could be the primary suppliers of uranium . France was importing from the former French colonies in Africa .
IIRC, most of the former French colonies in Africa have stopped accepting fake French “money” (CFA Franc) for their uranium.
The African mines are becoming exhausted is part of the problem.
Can you please send me a link for uranium supplies. I was arguing with a friend who told me that there is 100 years of uranium supply…
This is an article I wrote regarding uranium issues. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/11/11/nuclear-electricity-generation-has-hidden-problems-dont-expect-advanced-modular-units-to-solve-them/
I don’t think I mentioned it in the above article, but it also takes diesel to operate the machines that extract the ore. Sulfur is also used in some extraction, and it is in shot supply. And there is a chronic problem of not being able to get the price to rise high enough or long enough to get the ore out. The supply of any mineral is nearly always a “wishful thinking” amount, if all the stars would only align correctly.
For year, the US has been using down blended nuclear bombs (US+Russian) to power nuclear power plants, but we are running out of these.
At least Europe is functional enough to create some decent waste storage facilities rather than throw it in a swimming pool extend and pretend.
Europe still mostly throws it in the swimming pools long term like everywhere else.
So every time Norman goes swimming, he gets a “radium bath”, which is the secret of his eternal youth.
Last I heard he just sets up on the lilo in the middle of the pool. For the ladies. Smart on both counts.
and we all have tea together later in the cafeteria…..last year for my 90th they brought in a birthday cake…..
unfortunately nobody jumped out of it.
Especially, the old spent wind farm turbine blades – un recyclable junk of not small volume ( and rising ) – is the brand new pride of Europeans..
The ocean is big.
How long would it take to recirculate water to the rest of the ocean from the bottom of the Marianas Trench? I bet it wouldnt be until after we are all gone.
Someone is busy pressing buttons
https://ibb.co/Qv0NhGTQ
https://ibb.co/pBwG3zDK
Fist sign “lap tops $42”
Second sign “sold out”
Big oil upset T when they didn’t commit capx to Venezuela.
He will price his oilage where he wishes.
Hand be flatlining people. That’s just what Terminal demand destruction looks like. The Hand’s Terminal that now authorizes permits for all letters of credit. Priced-out not sold out. Ghalibaf trolling higher prices is the Hand trolling peoples’ false expectations.
Think about the inflation adjusted barrel prices that the countries of the world that experienced worse inflation than the 30% dollar inflation. There’s your flatlining right there. It’s here already for some. Who would lend to broke ass countries wanting to buy oil at $150-$200 or more in real cost to themselves. Fuggedaboutit.
Right? Turkey has seen 450% inflation since 2020. What is the real cost of a barrel to them in 2020 dollars? Higher than Ghalibaf can imagine. Good thing we don’t need to do the math on that off the top of our heads because there’s you’re Flatlining justification right there. Priced out. Capital Controls from Terminal A. A is for apocalypse.
The Hand is a Higher Power in every respect except the religious one.
Religion is indirectly related to the Hand. Religions try to push the Maximum Power Principle. The physics of the system create religions as wall as governments and leaders that work in the direction needed to keep the system operating, to the extent possible.
Yep, the Hand inherited and wields religion, as we are seeing so clearly with the BNS. Tried and true tool use. The tool and the user are indirectly related. Religion was the first and last self-organizing metaphysical cultural delusion required to circumvent the Dunbar Number. With the eventual emergence of the State out of pre-state cultures and the chiefdoms before them, religion changed from being an essential self-organizing delusion of agri-culture to a malleable tool of managed Statecraft.
I see religions and governments as occupying close to the same “space.” They both try to provide organization and possibly consequences for doing wrong. Religions seem to be strongest where other organization is lacking. Religions change from year to year and area to area, as do governments. Somewhat similar religions follow the same fashions (women in the clergy; when children should commune; type of music).
I have seen many different religions in different countries. I was surprised at how much they overlap. They all seem to try to provide for the poor. They are all thankful for good harvests. They all teach treating your neighbor well–but not necessarily your competitor well, if there is not enough to go around. They try to pass along historical approaches that “work,” but they are forced to change as the outside environment changes.
Yeah before the State/government emerged, religion was the cultural ‘government.’ So they are the same ‘higher power’ function that provides hierarchical order out of the social chaos that exceeding the Dunbar Number always causes.
Just as the emergence of the supranational Hand under the civilizational evolutionary pressure of US peak per capita oil consumption brought a globalized, supranational order to the emerging social chaos resulting from the most powerful nation in the international order going into structural decline.
Japan just blew $50-$60 billion dollars. And bought themselves maybe 2 weeks if they are lucky. USD/JPY will be right back at 160.00 in a relatively short time. Perhaps less than a week.
They might want to save those dollars to buy actual stuff.
“HealthRanger: The situation with oil is worse than you think.
The oil wells of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are not like a garden hose. They are mature, low-pressure reservoirs that require precise gas injection to maintain flow. Once that flow stops, water encroachment — what engineers call water coning — traps oil behind barriers of saltwater that are nearly impossible to reverse. Worse, paraffin waxes and asphaltenes precipitate inside the wellbore tubing, clogging the rock pores with solid deposits.
This is not theory; it is basic petroleum physics. ” ?
https://x.com/HealthRanger/status/2049557519647830479?s=20
Ok , postkey . I saw the same post by another “twitter” guy and followed it up and saw re-tweets and came to the conclusion ” none of these twitters were real oil men ” with absolutely no connection with the oil industry . Second a few openly said pro Israel or MAGA . It would be better if we went thru the rebuttals in the thread . Just my POV . I am not technical enough to have an answer to this . I will try and see if I can get someone reliable to give a reply .
Yes , I agree that production is not coming back anytime soon or even a year after the SoH is opened . Multiple factors . Rebuilding bombed facilities will be challenge ( ASU’s anyone ) . Heck even clearing the debris is going to be a mountain to climb . Problem is we have run out of road and are on our way to ” the Seneca Cliff ” .
TIM: Grok, what’s your take on this?
GROK: It’s mostly correct, but a half-truth with some exaggeration for dramatic effect.
What’s accurate (basic petroleum physics):
Many major fields in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE (especially Iran’s giant southern fields like Ahvaz, Marun) are mature, decades old, with declining natural pressure. They rely heavily on pressure maintenance via water injection (seawater flooding is very common) and sometimes gas injection to sustain flow.
Water coning (or water encroachment) is a real, well-known issue in these reservoirs. When production stops or rates change suddenly, bottom/edge water can rise and invade the oil zone, leaving oil trapped by capillary forces in the rock pores. Restarting can lead to high water cut, and some damage can be difficult/expensive to reverse fully.
Paraffin waxes and asphaltenes do precipitate when flow stops, temperature/pressure drops, or oil becomes stagnant. This can clog tubing, perforations, and near-wellbore pores, causing productivity loss. It’s a documented flow-assurance problem in many Middle East crudes (especially heavier ones).
Where it’s overstated or simplified:
Not all wells in these countries are uniformly “low-pressure reservoirs that require precise gas injection.” Many depend more on waterflooding than gas. Gas injection is used selectively (e.g., for specific reservoirs or EOR).
Shut-ins don’t always cause permanent, irreversible loss on a massive scale. Long-term shut-ins have happened historically (wars, maintenance, OPEC cuts) with varying degrees of damage. Some recovery is possible with workovers, chemical treatments, or resumed injection—though costly and not 100% efficient. The “nearly impossible to reverse” phrasing is too absolute.
The risk is real for prolonged shut-ins in mature, water-drive or flooded fields, but it’s not as binary as “stop flow → oil trapped forever like a broken garden hose.”
Bottom line: The core concerns about shut-in risks in these aging Gulf fields are grounded in real reservoir engineering challenges. However, Health Ranger presents it in its most alarming form, downplaying mitigation options and variability across fields. It’s directionally right for a worst-case prolonged disruption scenario, but not pure, balanced fact.
TIM: Can you explain it in words simple enough Norman can understand?
GROK: Oh, that’s difficult — even with a brain the size of a planet. Afraid I can’t quite simplify it enough for Norman to grok it.
But you could ask Claude or Deep Seek? Or ChatGPT.
Nice.
“Exaggerations for dramatic effect.” Only a robot would say that. The only counter the Age of Gaslighting is to exaggerate the truth. Everybody knows that. Fire with fire.
Who woulda ever think the stoopid Health Ranger had so much to teach OFW about oil? Lol. Hand covered for peak oil collapse with peak oil collapse by other means. Simple genius.
Admin both confirms and denys
Oil wells gumming up through disuse is cited as a motive for Iran to negotiate. Iran will hit the wall and return to the negotiating table begging.
Oil wells gumming up through disuse is not mentioned in regard to recovering from this event.
Recovering from the event is regarded as one inevitable as we always “return to normal”. Normal here being infinite affordable easy to extract energy.
Remember when T pulled a “those grapes are probably sour” and said Venezuelan oil was icky oil no one wants? After he ran China out of town and took the oil it was beautiful beautiful oil?
Technical issues are malleable too. Part of winning.
”The specs are now public on http://tesla.com. Standard Range: 325 miles at 82,000 pounds gross combined weight. Long Range: 500 miles at the same weight. Energy consumption: 1.7 kilowatt-hours per mile. Three independent rear motors producing up to 800 kilowatts. Charging at 1.2 megawatts via Megacharger, recovering 60 percent of range in 30 minutes. ” ?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2049638339557597515?s=20
hrmm… typical weight of semi truck and trailer ~50,000 lbs.
so the electric semi will do ~ 7 times more damage to the road than a normal semi. (road damage scales with the weight of the vehicle to the 4 power)
i guess we will have to subsidize this expense also.
These will probably never make it to market. Each truck stop would require a small nuclear plant to charge in any meaningful time frame. More, it would just be a matter of time before someone shot at a battery pack, on a bridge (for example)… obliterating everything.
Battery tech is probably always going to be just shy of solid-state.
Refineries are working at MOL .
” TOKYO, April 30 (Reuters) – Japanese oil refineries slightly increased utilisation rates to 69.6% of designed capacity in the week to April 25, versus 68.4% a week earlier, Petroleum Association of Japan data showed.
* PAJ suspended publication of a breakdown for the weekly stocks of gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene and diesel due to changes in Japan’s petroleum product supply structure (Reporting by Katya Golubkova; Editing by Himani Sarkar) “
Sounds reassuring.
BAU will not collapse in Japan for another week at least!
According to Trump oil pipes in Iran were going to explode in 3 days i.e Wednesday . Well nothing happened .
How much oil storage Iran has remaining is irrelevant to applying pressure on Iran.
One day, 8 days, 22 days. Utterly irrelevant.
They will shut in. Just like everyone else. The IRGC couldn’t care less about optimal reservoir pressure management techniques right now. This is a battle for survival .
” If approved, this would mark the first time the US will have deployed its hypersonic missile, which is running far behind schedule and hasn’t been declared fully operational even as Russia and China have deployed their own versions. And since Trump isn’t shy when it comes to demonstrating force, it is unlikely that the request will be denied. ”
Going to fight a war with a missile that has not even been tested . 🤣
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-may-deploy-hypersonic-missiles-against-iran-centcom-set-brief-trump-new-military
I guess it depends on how far from optimal the pressure gets as oil also represents survival.
Ravi
“This is a battle for survival’
lol
This is a soap opera like Ukraine/Russia.
“This is a battle for survival”
Iran will not give in. They are fighting an asymmetric war and they are essentially kicking the United States in the nuts. The world quite possibly in the next 2-3 months is headed for a global economic depression that might take decades to recover because oil will not be available.
Food shortages and starvation will ensue. The world will turn its anger at the US and Israel. This is how empires have died throughout recorded history. The US has become ancient Rome and the Iranians are the Barbarians.
Rome never recovered
Ghalibaf agrees(want a livestream).
https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2049592312997535754?s=20
Taken from
https://english.almanar.com.lb/article/64377/
Oil price:
121.81
107.78
Someone’s plan is working.
Car industry without the subsidies cant exist
BYD : The biggest SCAM of the car industry ?
https://youtu.be/tS_fJJxMjn4?si=2w6CpfRN58Le3qOF
Looking at the transcript, the company is very vertically integrated. And BYD knows how to build inexpensive long-lasting batteries. But the real secret is government subsidies and debt that doesn’t show up on its balance sheet. With its unusual cost structure, it can undercut the prices of every other manufacturer. Some excerpts
Section: It’s Not a Company; It’s a Weapon
8:04 From day one, BYD has been playing a game nobody else on the field was allowed to play. Between 2015 and 2020 alone, BYD received roughly 4.3 billion dollars in direct subsidies from the Chinese state. In 2016, the year they poached their star designer from Audi, the subsidies they collected from Beijing were higher than the company’s entire net profit.
8:35 The help came in every form you can imagine. Free land for factories. Zero-interest loans from state-owned banks. Tax breaks on R&D. Guaranteed public contracts for buses and taxis. In hundreds of Chinese cities, subsidies handed directly to buyers so that every BYD sold in China came pre-discounted by the state. At its peak, analysts estimate BYD was pocketing between 2,000 and 4,000 dollars of public money for every single vehicle rolling off the line.
Section: The Rot Underneath
10:31 According to their [GMT Research] analysis, , BYD’s real debt isn’t the 42 billion yuan the company officially reports. It’s closer to 323 billion. Almost eight times higher. The missing pieces are hidden inside what accountants call supply chain financing — a polite way of saying that BYD pays its suppliers on average 275 days after delivery. Nine months. In an industry where the norm is 50 to 60 days. Technically, those unpaid invoices are debt, except they don’t show up on the balance sheet.
12:51 In Brazil, BYD is being prosecuted by the labor ministry for conditions described in court documents as “analogous to slavery” at its factory construction site in Bahia. 163 Chinese workers, passports confiscated, fourteen-hour days, no rest days. The case went all the way up to President Lula. And the financials are starting to wobble. Net profit for 2025 dropped by 19%.
The video ends by saying that China is using the same playbook in other industries. No one can compete with these subsidized companies.
The video mentions that BYD is now being compared to Evergrande (a big property developed who failed with too much debt.)
The comments show some level of awareness though.
Alexander discusses the UAE exit from OPEC, and what might be going on with that, linking it to the Gulf war and the Strait. If UAE is in financial dire straits then that bodes ill for the wider market.
Regarding UAE quitting OPEC, some of what the video says is this:
2:30 And most of the commentary in the media has been about the tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which do in fact exist. The fact that the UAE has been unhappy about the size of its OPEC production quotas, that the UAE would supposedly be happier happy with a lower price of oil provided it could export more of it. Whereas Saudi Arabia as the big oil exporter but as a country with heavy liabilities which it needs to satisfy prefers a higher price for its oil than the UAE supposedly is able to tolerate.
4:27 UAE is under a great deal more financial pressure than it wants to admit to. And we’ve had signs of this. Firstly, the UAE refused to roll over a 3.5 billion loan it made to Pakistan. And there was lots of discussions about why this was so. There were some suggestions that the UAE was unhappy about the fact that Pakistan was trying to mediate between Iran and the United
States. For the UAE, supposedly, it is all a case of all or nothing unless Pakistan sides fully with the Arab states, with the UAE and others in treating Iran straightforwardly as an aggressor. Well, in that case, it’s not good enough and the UAE is unwilling to support and assist a country that like Pakistan that takes a middle road.
10:25 the UAE cannot afford a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and in an interruption in the oil, its oil export trade. and that it is this which is making the UAE so hostile and so critical of Iran at this time, so much more hostile and critical of Iran than the other Arab states. And that probably explains or possibly explains the currency swap hat the UAE worries that it might need dollars at some point over the next few months, which is why it’s entered into this arrangement with the Federal Reserve.
12:33 UAE is today not just the Arab world’s financial center. It has become a global financial center as well. Dubai in particular has positioned itself as a major financial center in which much of the world invests its money. And well, if the UAE is in trouble, then perhaps it is in trouble because its financial centers are in trouble.
Addendum on UAE, ” they ” still operate with the [ peak oil demand ] threshold nonsense :
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/a-long-time-coming-how-to-understand-the-uaes-decision-to-leave-opec/
https://youtu.be/Z3J48S5IIBc
Wolfgang Munchau on why UAE is ~seeking currency swap line from FED..
Recommended by 1/2 Duran boyz..
( if you can’t stand Varoufakis just skip these passages.. )
The write-up says, ” Yanis Varoufakis and Wolfgang Munchau debunk the orthodox view that the newly established U.S. dollar swap lines for Gulf states are a charitable bailout for the Middle East, arguing instead that these facilities are a desperate signalling mechanism designed to bail out the American financial system and the petrodollar recycling machine, as the escalating war in Iran threatens to permanently dismantle U.S. economic hegemony.”
Excerpts:
2:06 the petro dollar is in a very serious uh state of peril. The United States Gulf allies cannot earn dollars from gas and oil to buy treasuries. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia are selling oil in yuan. And as if that were not enough, I don’t know whether you saw this in the Financial Times this morning, Wall Street banks, led by Goldman Sachs, who always have a nose for where the wind blows, have borrowed record amounts of yuan this year on behalf of Portugal, of Finland, of Norway, of various Western powers. So, you know, the American dollar hegemony seems to be on the wane this week more so than in previous weeks.
3:39 I’m sort of pleading sort of ignorance here that I know, you know, I don’t think I understand why these swap lines are given because for starters, the UAE don’t doesn’t need it. If you look at the books of the of the UAE, they have 10 times as much dollar assets than the exchange stabilization fund, which is the counterparty to the swap. That’s right. This doesn’t make sense. Well, it does if you think of it as a as a bailout of the United States, not of the Gulf States. That’s a plausible it’s a plausible scenario. I have to say it could also be a recognition that we might actually have a very severe financial crisis ahead.
If the UAE and other Gulf countries end up having to sell some dollar denominated assets by definition there is a buyer on the other side.
Banks have a dollar funding cost. Which is the spread between what assets yield. Say government bonds and what the banks have to pay on deposits.
Government debt yielding 4-5-6% is very attractive to the banks. All they do is expand their balance sheets to buy the debt. The idea that government deficits can’t be funded at ever increasing levels is nonsense to a point. As long as bank balance sheets can expand so can government debt.
European banks are just like their US counterparts. Loaded up with record amounts of government bonds.
It’s the private debt that everyone should be worried about instead of the government debt. Private debt can collapse faster than government debt can expand. Which would lead to an acute shortage in dollars.
I thought that this was an interesting article about the sale of US government bonds by Robert Oro of the Mises Institute:
https://mises.org/power-market/those-big-beautiful-bonds
The U.S. Government sells debt on a revolving door basis, yet most people aren’t aware of the mechanism by which this is done. Luckily, ZeroHedge covers the debt auction results, which allows us to articulate one of the structural problems in the Federal Reserve system. As reported last week:
The week’s lone coupon auction priced at 1pm when the Treasury sold $13 BN in 20Y paper, in a solid if not stellar auction.
Deciphering the trader talk in the article, the Treasury took on an additional $13 billion in debt that is repayable in 20 years, paying an annual interest rate of 4.883% (approximately $635 million a year).
A 2.68 bid-to-cover ratio means that for every $1 of debt issued, there were $2.68 in bids, suggesting a healthy market appetite. Only so many entities can lend billions of dollars at a time; here are the three who took the auction:
Direct bidders (institutional money like pension funds) took 22.9%;
Indirect bidders (foreign central banks) took the brunt at 67.4%;
Primary Dealers (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, etc.) held just 9.7%.
Since primary dealers are mandated to buy, and since the Fed will buy from them, the free-market price and demand for debt remains a mystery. Therefore, without the Fed’s anti-capitalist intervention, demand would be lower and yields would be higher.
So, this author is saying that the primary dealers off-load these bonds to the Fed, helping to hold interest rates down.
The modern tractor is a rather sophisticated thing to say the least. It knows exactly where it is in the field. Dealer repair only. Pretty silly when farm boys are born engineers and good ones. It could be genetic.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EPYy_g8NzmI&pp=ygUcSGFja2luZyBqb2huIGRlZXJlIHNvZnR3YXJlIA%3D%3D
Preparing for new *autonomous teaming” profit possibilities. Human operation offered as back up feature.
Like I said. What if they had a war and no energy came? I am of course the eternal optimist.
One might hope agriculture would get some priority
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sXpEPZSldBQ&pp=0gcJCd8KAYcqIYzv
Brent oil is at $120 right now, WTI oil is at $108.
Brent is higher than it was before the ‘ceasefire’ (Brent peaked at $112, WTI peaked at $113).
$120!!!
Still too low. $1200 and $1080 would be something to start talking about…
Gas prices just shot up twice this week already. Up nearly a dollar/gallon to $5 bucks.
@ Gasbuddy
“a double spike day I don’t believe in my ~20 years I’ve ever seen this- $4.79, then updated to $4.99. unprecedented. what’s even more wild that the market has completely gone insane is that all 3 markets are the SAME- MI/IN/OH”
https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2049588230769500359
Who needs a car and a seven-forty-seven
When you can’t buy a gallon of gas
Who needs a highway, an airport or a jet
When you can’t get a gallon of gas
There’s no more left to buy and sell
There’s no more oil left in the well
A gallon of gas can’t be purchased anywhere
For any amount of cash
You can’t buy a gallon of gas
California’s Gas Crisis Just Got Worse — Another Refinery SHUT DOWN (23:01)
36,783 views Apr 25, 2026
California just lost another refinery — and within days, gas prices surged to $5.83 per gallon.
On April 14th, 2026, the Valero Benicia Refinery stopped producing gasoline after 25 years of operation. What followed wasn’t just a price spike — it exposed a deeper problem that’s been building for decades.
In this video, we break down exactly why California gas prices are the highest in America, how the state lost over 30% of its refining capacity since 2020, and why it now depends on fuel imports from countries like India and South Korea. From strict fuel regulations to geographic isolation and a mysterious unexplained price surcharge costing drivers billions — this is the full story behind the crisis.
We also look at the real-world impact: $7+ diesel, rising food prices, struggling trucking companies, and cities losing millions in tax revenue. And with another refinery potentially on the chopping block, this situation may only get worse.
This isn’t just about gas prices. It’s about how an entire system became fragile — and what happens next.
I will take “Looting High End Neighbourhoods” for $300 Alex.
California is trying to compete with Europe for having the largest energy problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/even-gop-hawks-now-alarmed-over-iran-war-fallout-60-days-hits-friday
Amid reports that Vice President JD Vance is very seriously questioning the White House’s Iran War narrative along with the Pentagon’s rosy and overly positive updates on how things are going, over in Congress there’s growing alarm as Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is set to hit the 60-day mark on Friday.
Republicans no doubt want to wrap things up fast, however, the latest reports say the White House is preparing for an extended Hormuz blockade of at least ‘months’ longer, per fresh WSJ reporting. There now appears to be a significant shift among Republicans underway, given that the 1973 War Powers Resolution requires that a US president must terminate unauthorized military operations within 60 days of initiating them.
Congress must then certify a need for continued military force in the instance that the nation faces an imminent threat. Already several war power initiatives have been effectively blocked on the House and Senate sides.
We thought we were getting a TACO
“Trump Always Chickens Out”
But so far we are getting a NACHO
“Not A Chance Hormuz Opens”
(With appreciation to the trader who told me)
That is good!
We best develop a liking for nachos. Nice one Raviji
I have reached the following conclusion Trump will be the fall guy when the collapse hits us and everything changes overnight. It will be biblical. Poor Trump he is being played the world can never know about limits to growth they need something simple blaming one guy almost like Jesus was crucified Trump will be crucified along with everything he stands for.
Yup. Boomers will be given the witch test. If you float you are a witch. People will be hungry. The witches are eating all the food!
I wonder how the electric grid keeps functioning . Delays in equipment . It’s not just transformers.
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2048396385524019258/photo/1
The whole list by Gaurab Chakrabarti is amazing.
I keep thinking that electricity will be the first to fail because it was last to be added. Oil in various forms is easy to use and transport. The transportation and storage of electricity is a huge headache.
the first two items are both transformers. the delays were high before. the bottleneck is the special steel, which IIRC is produced mostly in China and Russia. today a lot of copper is replaced with aluminum. too bad they are both in short supply…
Half of America’s AI data centers planned for 2026 are delayed or cancelled. They’re waiting on transformers. I build chemical plants. Transformer prices have tripled in the last four years. Lead times are 2 to 4 years. Each new plant we build competes with AI data centers for the same grid equipment. Every large power transformer in America runs on grain-oriented electrical steel. It’s made by rolling iron and silicon together until their crystals align in one direction. No other alloy works at utility scale and only one US company makes it: Cleveland-Cliffs. The average large power transformer on the grid is 38 years old. Service life is 40. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft committed $650 billion to AI infrastructure this year. Nvidia’s most expensive GPU is useless without a transformer.
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2046755907137413440/photo/1
This guy knows his stuff .
I agree. He is very good. This is the reason that AI expansion will have to halt. It becomes impossible to get the transformers needed.
Cleveland Cliffs just closed the Bethlehem Steel plant in Steelton south of the state capital Harrisburg, PA. For the past 3 weeks, I have been driving by there every day for my current job. However, TPTB made a $300 million dollar deal with the Durabond pipe company who occupies one of the original steel company buildings to continue rail support that was threatened by the closure. Just the local USW 1688 logo and the name Steelton remain on the large sign in front of the main entrance. My great-gf, one of my uncles and my father worked for a time at the plant. Dad says some of the forms for a section of the Golden Gate Bridge were stashed somewhere in one of the buildings in the late 60’s.
Iran and electricity .
” Iran found a sanctions loophole based on thermodynamics. Seven countries are wired to Iran’s grid: Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Iran’s power plants burn natural gas and heavy fuel oil. Over 90% of the country’s electricity comes from hydrocarbons. Crude oil in a tanker is sanctioned, but electrons in a wire are not. The Iraq electricity waiver was renewed repeatedly for seven years, from 2018 to 2024. Trump let it expire on March 8, 2025. In 2024, Iran exported 5.2 TWh. At peak, Iraq took up to 40% of its power from Iran, through both wires and pipelines. Sanctions stopped the tankers. The electrons kept flowing.”
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2047763248729231488/photo/1
Excellent point, again by Gaurab Chakrabarti.
The whole region depends on Iran’s electricity exports. If the US takes down Iran, it hobbles the electricity availability of the whole region. Iraq is especially affected.
Mel Brooks actually is the one who developed USA geopolitical strategy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I&pp=ygUeQmxhemluZyBzYWRkbGUgc2hlcnJpZiBob3N0YWdl0gcJCd8KAYcqIYzv
Classic, yes, and absolutely true about authorship, but it’s actually Spaceballs that Hand is following. right now. This BNS key change is based on Mel Brooks’ Two-Strand Challah Bread Ceasefire. That scene from Blazing Saddles is, though, how Maduro got himself into the Apache helicopter without any shots fired by anybody on either side.
https://youtube.com/shorts/kxd3NYyGaNY
Qatar said they can only restart production after 5 years . I understand why ? Air separation units .
” Oxygen boils at -183C. Nitrogen at -196C. The entire industrial gas industry runs on that 13-degree gap. That difference is enough to separate them inside a single machine called an air separation unit. An ASU cools air to -190C, liquefies it, and pulls the components apart by boiling point. One large unit produces over 3,000 tons of oxygen per day. The feedstock? The air around you. That oxygen goes to steel mills, hospitals, semiconductor fabs, and rocket engines. The nitrogen goes to food packaging and pharmaceutical manufacturing. The argon goes to welding and silicon crystal growth. Three companies control ~70% of the world’s large-scale ASU capacity: Linde, Air Liquide, and Air Products. Unlike oil or copper, none of it can be stockpiled. Liquid oxygen and liquid nitrogen boil off up to 1% per day in storage. There is no strategic reserve. ”
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2039169148883009728/photo/1
Another issue identified by Gaurab Chakrabarti. Air Separation Units.
Three companies control ~70% of the world’s large-scale ASU capacity: Linde, Air Liquide, and Air Products. Unlike oil or copper, none of it can be stockpiled. Liquid oxygen and liquid nitrogen boil off up to 1% per day in storage. There is no strategic reserve. ”
Shanaka talked about the air separation unit issue back when it happened.
Cold and dry spring is not good for crops. The strange climate changes make this spring very challenging, with frequent night frosts. April used to be a month of rain, but now no rain comes. Cold, dry winds prevail. These changes started a few years ago.
Slovakia is turning to dust: drought is destroying crops, ravaging forests, and posing a fire threat
https://spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/803321-slovensko-sa-meni-na-prach-sucho-nici-urodu-trapi-lesy-a-hrozia-poziare/
Kirill Dmitriev is such a clown. “Please please let us Russian elites back into the Western system.”
https://x.com/kadmitriev/status/2049539969614504057
Kirill Dmitriev
@kadmitriev
JUST IN: President Putin and President Trump held a constructive phone call, also discussing potential US-Russia economic and energy cooperation. 🕊️
Well otherwise we will all have mad max
Exactly. East vs West drivel is what makes clowns out of people.
If Trump can unsanction Russian oil, perhaps he can unsanction Russian Elites.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2049515700218368218
Good chart. Oil product storage is falling rapidly from above-trend to below-trend for this time of year. The above-trend start surely helped buffer the consequences that are now manifesting.
The chart shows gasoline + distillate + jet fuel combined.
It is not clear whether the chart is World or US. I am suspicious it is only US. It would be easy enough to get the amounts separately for the US.
Gasoline:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGTSTUS1&f=M
Distillate- quite low recently, probably because distillate used much less for home heating now:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MDISTUS1&f=M
Jet Fuel:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MKJSTUS1&f=M
Disproving the idea that the US would not be affected by world oil shortages. WTI is now up to $106.89.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-oil-exports-soar-new-record-high-inventories-tumble-spr-drained-most-october-2022
Moments ago the already precarious inventory picture turned even more ominous after the DOE reported that Crude stocks tumbled by a whopping 6.234 million barrels, far more than the 190K draw expected. The huge decline on US crude stockpiles was the largest draw since early February. It took nationwide storage numbers to around 459.5 million barrels.
But it wasn’t just crude: all other products drew as well:
Crude -6.234MM, Exp. -190K, and much bigger than the 1.8-million-barrel decrease seen by the API on Tuesday
Gasoline -6.075MM
Distillates -4.494MM
Cushing -796K
Gasoline declines in the middle of their predicted range at 6.1 million barrels. That’s the biggest draw since earlier in April, but the bigger story is total supplies falling to their lowest since December. Seasonally, stocks are at their lowest since 2014. Gasoline futures got a nice bump on this, extending their gains to new intraday highs, though the big story, as ever, is the Strait of Hormuz.
Another AI “Oops!”
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/ai-agent-deletes-startups-database-9-seconds-founder-says
A software company founder claims an AI coding agent destroyed his firm’s production database, then copped to the mistake and explained how it happened, demonstrating the potential danger of entrusting sensitive access and materials to automated bots.
Jeremy Crane, founder of PocketOS—a software platform used by car rental operators to manage reservations, payments, and vehicle tracking—said in a viral post on X that a Cursor agent running Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 encountered a credential mismatch while working on a routine task in a staging environment.
According to Crane, the agent tried to “fix” the issue by deleting a Railway database volume through a single GraphQL API call. He said the deletion took nine seconds and also wiped volume-level backups. PocketOS’s most recent recoverable backup was three months old, according to Crane.
“Yesterday afternoon, an AI coding agent—Cursor running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6—deleted our production database and all volume-level backups in a single API call to Railway, our infrastructure provider,” Crane wrote. “It took 9 seconds.”
What a joke of a company if they give AI agents total control over production and backup systems. You’re stupid if you even let provider-based AI snoop your proprietary code base, let alone give it unrestricted write access.