As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
Kplr says only 40% of capacity through the gulf 12 months from now
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2052220158291144912?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
if we don’t find a cheap renewable resource to run the planet then 8 billion people will be reduced to zero people that is the nature of the problem and that is why I think natural hydrogen is the solution that we should be looking at.the storage problem for natural hydrogen is of course a problem that is why we have to think about just tapping into the natural hydrogen and running a city off of it.we need to forget about the way we do things such as trade and think more about survival of the human race.
looks like the elders choose “old fashion” way.
actually, I don’t think anyone had any choice, which makes it a “Force Marjorie”.
The old fashioned way sounds good i wonder what sorts of entertainment lies in store for us in the good old days we had the temperance league and the prohibition we shall see what is in store for us.
There are many numbers between 8 billion and zero.
JMG’s latest: “Companions on the Road: A Retrospective”
https://ecosophia.net/companions-on-the-road-a-retrospective/
Excerpt: I began posting pieces on the future of industrial civilization, focusing especially on peak oil. For the sake of those who weren’t around back then, I should probably explain that those two words are shorthand for “the global peak of conventional petroleum production,” which took place in 2005 and was already starting to roil the global economy. Some people back then insisted that the world would shift smoothly to renewable energy, nuclear power, or some combination of the two. Others insisted that industrial society deprived of oil would plunge to sudden ruin, with or without a bunch of plucky survivors to mug the camera while the final credits rolled. I rejected both these claims
the gradual slippage that marks the end of one era and the slow rise of another. Nor has that process ended in our time. Quite the contrary, there are good reasons to think that the slippage may be picking up speed around us right now, and another assortment of things that used to count as normal will be going away forever.
I plan on writing about that in the months immediately ahead. For reasons we’ll discuss in detail, the predicaments of resource depletion and rising resource costs that held center stage in the early years of my blogging career are still live issues now, and are likely to become even more pertinent in the years immediately ahead. As I predicted quite a few years ago, we’re seeing another effort to market the white-elephant technology of nuclear fission; a great deal of wealth is about to be poured down that glow-in-the-dark rathole, and various other desperate long shots such as fusion are getting similar treatment. As I also predicted quite a few years ago, the fracking “miracle” is running on fumes at this point, and geopolitics and resource economics are being twisted into pretzel shapes to keep some semblance of oil flowing no matter what.
Thanks! We will have to watch for his posts.
JMG reminds me a lot of Norman Pagett. Both are obsessed with telling everyone how “I said this years ago” and “I was right.” The world may be going up in flames or down in flames, but in the end It’s all about them.
I have a request for all of us, please don’t tell us all how you were right about everything; tell us how you were wrong. Give us some examples of predictions you made that panned out different.
Well I don’t expect humility, but what about some old dishonest modesty?
https://x.com/thatguy_is/status/2051964941968515370
@thesiriusreport
It appears the West has finally realised that Azerbaijan is selling Russian gas to the Europeans and at a premium to what they could have paid Russia directly.
Meanwhile the Europeans keep convincing themselves that they are sticking it to Moscow.
Nope. That has been likely part of wider agreement with Don earlier (Anchorage+), basically to sideline – suppress hotheads on remote in Eurolands, granting RU some of their energy-biz claims on the chessboard. It also included some deal with RU as in US phasing out of engagement in that Ukr thing, that’s why the famous scene in WH was largely authentic as that ~green comedian – turn leader genuinely and massively enraged Don as he came for uploading the changed script of ending that conflict home soon enough and instead refused to cooperate ..
The factions active ( and applied correction path ) in globo politics are partially revealed only in such brief upheaval moments of history, otherwise ~99% of time the msm provides only over-sanitized kiddie narratives..
Most likely, Don was served ( pushed ) from the ” home front ” with the int agenda only in piece-meal order action, so it’s doubtful he was anywhere near on the future Iran ( full regime )-toppling plan at that earlier time..
Or perhaps there was an ~internal US deal you let me perform the RU derisk maneuver first in exchange of your later VZ+Iran/.. projects.
Initially, the over-all ~Don-faction plan was most likely just to carve up the world among US, RU, CHN and few also runs before the incoming 2030s energy carnage. At some point and given the VZ swift-cheap success they finally green-lighted the pre-planned Iran thingy ass well, which broke not only into massive regional Gulfies ally blow-back, but likely erupted into more swift US decline accelerating path.
Yes, Don perhaps doubled-tripled family wealth net score momentarily, but the overall long term gain-bet will prove to be an illusion, besides we are not privy to tight-leash conditions which helped him out of previous series of bankruptcies. My point being a nominal billionaire, yet a prison of past deeds and new unruly circumstances..
Most likely, say even quite a few CHN peasants enjoyed way happier and less stressful lifetime in comparison..
I have my own view of what is happening. I am confused about what you are saying here.
Huh? You’re saying Russia isn’t supplying Europe via an intermediary – which, by the way, is verifiable – based on some hypothetical deal that may or may not have happened in Anchorage and certainly wasn’t honored?
LOL if this is true.
I simply mentioned that it was understood for some time already that oil&gas bought from various -stans is often technically sourced via the pre-existing pipeline network there from RU proper, i.e. repackaged only via invoice. Furthermore in some cases these indiv govs were onto the scheme [ on purpose ] and got their %cut from the extra priced deal on top of it ( aka even more serious ~scam vs EUboyz clients )..
And it was also likely part of wider discussions and deals with Don as related to winding down the Ukro-war..
Celia Farber writes about the latest cruise ship “hanta virus” scare:
I’m sorry to report that just found something that makes it clear to me that this is a full blown OP: The story’s first clear, unmistakeable crisis actor.
https://x.com/nypost/status/2051365409979265120?s=20
Said with forced choking against tears voice, and guilt inducing tones:
“We’re not just a story. We’re not just headlines. We’re people. People with families…”
(Unchanged since the AIDS OP: “We’re people. We’re dying.” etc.)
Whoever said people on cruise ships aren’t people? With families.
I detest irrational manipulation. The man chosen presents as a woman. (No disrespect to women, I mean only he lacks masculine dignity.)
Men, traditionally, do not seek public pity, choking back tears, while on a cruise ship off the coast of Cape Verde, strangely diagnosing the alleged insensitivities of strangers on land who may watch his video. (Picked up by propaganda fishwrap NY Post—another very bad sign.)
Of course he is American.
Nobody can persuade me this guy is not a crisis actor.
=====
Yes, Celia, that was my strong impression too. But I’m waiting for Norman’s confirmation on that one.
As we live in a finite world, with finite and not always abundant resources, it’s only a matter of time before our controllers lock us all down again. And based on recent history, it would so much easier for them to do so based on the pretext of a novel pathogen pandemic than on the lack of a mission-critical resource such as oil.
It is scare tactics again. There are many older passengers on cruise ships, particularly on the smaller cruise ships that visit parts of Europe and Asia. I have to believe that there are at least a few deaths among these older passengers, while the ships are sailing. It is the way the world works.
I don’t think this is a plandemic just check what the who has got to say and it ain’t much
The only thing infinite in this world is bullshit
crisis actors have been out of work since eddy left the building
hydrogen costs–to produce in energy terms—1.5 x the energy it delivers…
thats all you need to know about the ‘hydrogen economy’
There’s plenty of natural hydrogen in the Sun.
All we have to do is get a 93-million-mile-long gas pipe and pump it “up.”
It’s the kind of Job Elon should have sorted before breakfast!
Is it known or knowable what the pay is like for performance of this caliber?
you get the highest pay level for crisis acting if you are willing to do dead for real… (no faking)…
eddy told me that years ago…..
i think he was looking to start a crisis acting agency, and wanted recruits…
Interesting video. I agree that his words do not make a lot of sense. “For now….sob….I just ask for your understanding”. Who the heck is not sympathetic for some poor slob stuck on a cruise ship? Why does he need more understanding? It might be AI Tim, or it might just be the unraveling of manhood that has been pushed by the left. Wimpy men are the result.
Regardless, it seems a bit unreal.
Tim
It’s an election year!
Excellent! That’s what I call “thinking”!
I suppose that for a mid-term Election year, we only need a medium-level panic. The next big thing must be scheduled for early 2028.
On the [ timing angle ] – there has been great debate at Surplus in recent days about the UK situation, simply the place is ripe for new depth in political crisis + GBP crash any moment.. and that ricocheting into overall globo-market slump. The perceived instability ~trigger could be anything though, e.g. there are many speculations there will be massive mil. campaign spike on the Ukro front just starting after the May / Victory day parade in RU.. etc.
Also, when DaveInMegaYrs suddenly starts to bring forward doom by the decades, well then one also has to take it into account – as sort of natural forces forming their prediction lol..
”We’ve spent billions building server farms to memorize the internet. Now a small model, running locally on one graphics card, is starting to learn how reality actually works”?
https://x.com/AuroraMar1eL/status/2051648663257264467?s=20
We will have to wait and see whether this approach handles real problems.
The oil math .
https://www.hfir-ideas.com/p/the-oil-math-and-why-the-broader?hide_intro_popup=true
Project Freedom runs out of steam in 48 hours .
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/594414/project-freedom-has-been-paused-so-will-it-lead-to-a-diplomatic-breakthrough-or-reignite-war-with-iran
Oil went down because of project freedom and now that it’s paused, it’s down more.
Another market maneuver ?
S&P Global Energy published research on Tuesday May 5 2026 stating that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take seven months minimum to fully restore upstream production, with the energy crisis potentially stretching into 2027.
The market is not pricing this.
Brent futures are pricing political resolution at the May 14 Trump-Xi summit. Physical cargoes are pricing the customs enforcement architecture. Both are pricing the war. Neither is pricing the aftermath.
The Strait reopening is not the end of the crisis. The Strait reopening is the moment the second phase begins.
Output at Iranian fields and export flows from Iraqi and lower Gulf fields have been disrupted for sixty-six days. Refinery turnaround schedules across Asia are now misaligned. Insurance markets have repriced. Shadow fleet logistics have been substantially degraded by US Treasury sanctions. None of this rebuilds in days.
The political clock measures the distance to summit. The architectural clock measures the distance to functional supply restoration. The two clocks are not the same clock.
Even if Trump and Xi de-escalate on May 14, S&P says the energy crisis lasts another seven months at minimum.
The peace itself has a seven-month tail.
” BOMBSHELL. Saudi Arabia just posted a 126 billion riyal deficit in 90 days. That is 48% of total revenue.
In a single quarter Riyadh has burned through 76% of its entire annual deficit target. The official line was 165 billion for the full year. They hit it in 3 months. And Q1 was the easy quarter. ”
https://x.com/MENAUnleashed/status/2051682476146208852
What about Kuwait Bahrain that have zero revenue since the last two months ? I remember Armstrong saying something about the breakdown of the Saudi Riyal and USD peg coming under stress in the 3rd week of May .
Thanks for the updates Ravi
Great updates!
Thanks, Ravi!
Thank you, raviuppal4 for all your posts here
New Boss , new rules .
” An email sent by Persian Gulf Strait Authority to several shipping companies whose ships are stranded in the Gulf:
Instructions for passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships intending to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must email info@PGSA.ir.
The most important points considered in the transit mechanism:
1) Priority of payment in Iran’s national currency
2) Issuance of guarantees in Iranian banks
3) If a country caused damage to Iran in the recent war, it must first pay the damages before obtaining a passage permit. Countries that have sanctioned Iran or blocked Iran’s money are not allowed passage.
4) The correct title “Persian Gulf” must be written in all documents.
5) Non-compliance with the above will result in seizure and a fine of 20% of the cargo value. “
Interesting! Doesn’t look like ships headed for the US will be passing through any time soon.
6) bark like a dog when you apply. I have some 300 dollars in iranian money, I will hold onto them for a while now.
gangsta
It is the financial crisis for other Middle Eastern oil producers that pushes toward ending the war.
It is good to have an estimate by an oil research group estimate of the minimum time the disruption will last.
From the link. This is how the article ends.
As the inventory cushion is eroded, demand reduction will be the next factor to balance the oil market. This is already happening. JP Morgan estimates approximately 4.3 million bpd of forced demand losses in April, mostly in Asian and African importing nations that lack refinery capacity and have run out of fuel regardless of price.
Inventory drawdowns and forced demand destruction have so far done the work of balancing near-term supply and demand. However, the inventory part of that equation is about to run out.
I think it partly explains why there has not been great concern so far. Partly, it has been inventories, keeping oil supply normal. And what shortfalls are hitting are expected to mostly expected to affect “Asian and African importing nations” first. Maybe the whole thing will get settled soon and the problem will go away seems to be the view of most.
Okay the ceasefire was the bridge and now we’re into the key change. America bargaining and Iran taking the initiative.
Marco Rubio appealing to a higher power in bargaining with the situation like a Grade A sociopath. What’s the over-under on when the depression sets in? Do sociopaths even get depressed?
https://youtube.com/shorts/78HrYttN0lY
Shale producers cut their production when prices were low. When prices are high, they ramp up production. Perhaps not enough to make a difference, but it helps.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/shale-giant-diamondback-boosting-oil-output-immediately-soaring-prices
Shale Giant Diamondback Is Boosting Oil Output “Immediately” On Soaring Prices
The company that operates in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is pumping more than 520,000 barrels a day, 3% more than its original full-year guidance, and plans to sustains those levels, Chief Executive Officer Kaes Van’t Hof wrote in a letter to shareholders on Monday.
Of course, 3% if 520,000 is only 15,600 bpd, so it will not save the world.
🤣
pissing in the pool to make it salty . 🤣
hey that’s equal to 1,000 premium stripper wells lol
What is severely lacking is kerosene and jet fuel which tight oil lacks
Updated observation of the volume of flights passing over London: this suddenly increased to the pre-war, average 2025, level on Sunday – the day before the May ‘Bank Holiday’ – this declined considerably on Monday, and today one can barely hear a jet at all! As I type, nothing in the air, and it used to be deafening.
The end of our civilisation will be wonderfully quiet……
(Shops still fully-stocked with imported goods. Sudden 10-15% increase in quite a few food items in supermarkets).
I noticed in the Home Depot store where I shop for plants and fertilizer that the fertilizer display had been moved to the back. It had only a few higher-priced specialty products for home gardeners.
Previous years, fertilizer would have been up by the checkout counter, with several products on display to temp those buying plants.
Gail, it depends on the Store. I work in the Garden dept at my local Home Depot and we have different types of fertilizers down the main aisle and in the garden center. We always keep our fertilizer in the outside nursery along the rear of the nursery but during the spring we put the product in two places in the store.
Currently we have tons of fertilizer, though i’m guessing that might or will change in a few months. But knowing THD, they are probably anticipating the shortfall and ordering more before the squeeze and prices for the most part have been steady.
Some article I was reading flying would not recover now but sometime well into the future they are trying to develop sustainable aviation fuel but at the moment they can only ramp up .1 % compared to100% via fossil fuels so vegetable oil ain’t gonna cut it. We will just have to rely on rail and ships.The world is slowing down.The birds will rule the skies again.Yep I think we are heading back to the early 1900s way of life.
Guys here is a bit of investment advice I am currently invested in it even though the price has gone way down I have lost 60 % on my original small investment of a couple thousand dollars but I ain’t selling because I think it’s our only chance ; Natural Hydrogen or White Hydrogen. Think about it if planes and airlines are going into the dustbin of history and we are entering a different reality a slower paced way of life then Zepellins could make a comeback which could be powered by natural hydrogen gas. Just thought I’d let you guys and gals know the price is quite low at the moment because the science is new. Natural hydrogen is ready made hydrogen created under the earth over millions of years when water reacts with minerals deep under the earth it creates hydrogen gas so this could be our future cheap clean energy source to replace fossil fuels.Apparently Bill Gates has invested millions into it so it could be the answer to mankind’s survival.
Is it as abundant as natural gas? If not, how can we use it as a substitute power source?
Also, hydrogen is very difficult to contain. Its volume as a gas is way too high to use as a transportation fuel, and it has a reputation for explosions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fURATK5Yt30
Can you suggest this lucrative, once in a century business opportunity to MG, please?
er—–
zeppelins were lifted by hydrogen
they were –powered–by diesel motors…
just sayin…..
buoyed
oops by mistake I forgot about the diesel,regardless of that I still think that natural hydrogen has got a chance to replace fossil fuels and I’m not talking about green hydrogen this is white hydrogen you just need to research that norman.
birds have wings….
they can only continue to fly if they have access to sufficient energy input…
the same applies to us…
somethng that most people refuse to accept.
without an industrial level healthcare complex, your local physician will be able to offer little more practical help than a witch doctor.
which is stuff we all know, in basic terms, ie–keep clean and dont drink dirty water…
Thats more your very trivial imagination of something you haven’t ever met in practice – someone versed intraditional medicine – than the truth of it.
Of course the traditional practitioner had not access to modern machinery, and of course there are things you couldn’t do – x-ray, keeping blood and oxygen pumps upo on a comatose person – but the range of ailments and cures for a big mass of health problems is quite wide.
* and quite beyond what “we all know” on average here, that much is for sure.
I am often amazed at the childlike reduced imagination modern people have of the life of people thourgh the ages.
Very true! Many years ago I read how the Ancient Egyptians were highly advanced in medicine.
https://www.history.com/articles/ancient-egyptian-medicine-cancer-treatment
a breakdown of social structure will bring disruption—
to pick just one, the delivery of fresh water and removal of wastes—-ie, electricity and pumps.
the result of your toliet and taps not working will bring disease….
those diseases will be beyond the means of healthcare professionals—one of whom agreed with me when i suggested the above..
Humans living in crammed conditions without sanitation always brought the same.
Yes, said disruption is visible, from afar, in Gaza for example.
There is something to this argument, more than any vaccine or anti-biotic, it was mass scale sanitation that raised life expectancy and prevented diseases.
Well, you have to enlarge the envelope a bit.. then..
You are correct in the basal case, i.e. crammed megalopolis to semi-urban settings scale x overall crisis ( energy & fin ) point at the time.
While personal mitigation in less dense settlement provides more adaptation vector choices to curb these threads. There are entire subject books on how to treat it [ humanure ] etc.
Not a big surprise, but there are no new manufacturing jobs in the USA over the last 5 months. Healthcare is about all there is.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/manufacturing-is-the-biggest-net-loser-in-jobs-5-quarters-total/
We have a surplus of older people in poor health.
The health care industry i.e., health insurance companies, health care provider corporations ( how many hospitals or services like anesthesiology are being bought up by private equity?) big pharma, and medical technology are all part of a huge wealth extraction from the remaining working middle class and baby boomers who still have assets.
Eventually, as I predicted in my memoirs, people will be unable to afford insurance, whether through their employers or via individual family policies. But the big health care providers will lose their profitability if they lose the Cadillac commercial insurance revenue. Medicare, and especially Medicaid, do not pay enough for these health care provider corporations to be profitable.
There will be a tectonic struggle between insurers and providers unless of course they integrate to form one big insurer-provider corporation, in which case health care for especially high cost procedures and diseases will become limited.
The people may vote themselves for a government universal health care system, but that will be even worse. Eventually in a generation or two, it will be back to fee for service at your local physician office for just basic health care only.
“Eventually in a generation or two, it will be back to fee for service at your local physician office for just basic health care only.”
By that time, the United States will most likely have collapsed and entered the dustbin of failed Empires.