As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
Seeing many tweets about why the energy impact hasn’t been “felt” yet. It hasn’t started. The physical starvation only just began for Asia since the last barrels arrived a few weeks back, but remember SoH has been shut for 40 days and it’s ongoing. So at least for the next 40 days Asia is going to go on a crash diet as industries slow and stop. Not just that, but tack on however long it takes to restart this energy supply chain after the politicians work out a deal. Europe starts its energy diet this week when the last vessel arrives, so expect the fasting to begin. The real pain for Asia/EU has barely begun. Most are cutting fuel taxes to cope, but that exacerbated the demand problem. They need demand destruction, but that’s politically horrendous. So they’ll subsidize as much as possible hoping SoH reopens soon. Meanwhile they’re getting the munchies, hence the grab for US barrels. Those redirected VLCCs now bound for the US aren’t a coincidence. US insulated because we’re a large producer? Sure somewhat, but when the hungry horde comes for your winter stores, inventories will fall and prices will rise. Okay well the market will look through as it’s a “temporary disruption” so settle this and then tack on a month or two of lower supplies and it’ll be fine, a 4 month blip. Sure, but we go back to $65 oil? $70? At those prices supplies don’t grow, we never replenish the 0.5-1B of lost barrels, tack on higher global risk premium, infrastructure repairs, lower inventory levels, and higher SPRs for every country who just got a wake up call, and you automatically get a higher oil price going forward. Oil equities? It’s living in the past, as they’re pricing in $70. So yes pay attention to the headline and prices, but remember closing the SoH was always meant to inflict economic pain, but that hurt has just begun.
Open square capital
Learning how the oil markets work .
” What is the North Sea physic mkt, and how should the gap between the paper and physical markets be resolved?
Every time I post about the physical market, I see a lot of complaints about why oil prices aren’t rising further. Many ppl even criticize me, claiming I’m not explaining things properly.
First, I’ll summarize the basic components of the North Sea market.
ICE Brent Futures: A financially settled paper contract used primarily for broad directional hedging and speculation without the intention of physical delivery.
EFP (Exchange of Futures for Physical): A swap that acts as a bridge, allowing a trader to convert a paper futures position into a physical cargo contract.
Forward Brent: A standardized OTC physical swap for future delivery. It represents actual oil but remains non-dated bc the exact loading schedule is not yet determined.
Dated Brent: The global benchmark price for physical crude. It is assessed daily by agencies like Platts based on actual trades of the most competitive grade within the BFOET+WTI basket, triggered once specific loading dates are confirmed (typically 10-30 days prior).
CFD: A short-term swap representing the price difference between Forward Brent and Dated Brent. It is used to plot the physical forward curve and assess whether the market is in contango or backwardation.
DFL (Dated to Frontline): A swap that links the physical Dated Brent assessment directly to the front-month ICE Futures contract, managing exposure between the physical and financial markets.
Diff (Grade Basis): The premium or discount applied to a specific physical cargo relative to the Dated Brent benchmark. Driven by crude quality, logistics, and refinery demand, this unhedgeable spread is where physical traders generate profit.
This alone should be enough. From there, I’ll explain how the gap between the paper market and the physical market actually closes.
A massive divergence between Dated Brent (physic) and ICE Brent futures (paper) typically indicates acute near-term physical tightness relative to forward expectations.
If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price.
The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange’s settlement rules and market arbitrage. This operates through three primary mechanisms:
1) Cash Settlement via the ICE Brent Index
ICE Brent futures are cash-settled upon expiration and do not involve physical delivery. Expiring contracts are settled against the ICE Brent Index.
The Index is a calculated average of trading activity in the relevant physical Forward BFOET(Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll)+WTI Midland market during the final trading days of the futures contract.
Bc Forward Brent and Dated Brent are intrinsically linked, a physical market sustaining $130 will generate an ICE Brent Index near $130.
Consequently, any futures positions left open at expiration are forcibly settled at this higher Index price.
2) The Arbitrage Channel (EFP Mechanism)
If a $30 spread exists between paper and physical markets, traders will immediately exploit the arbitrage using the EFP mechanism.
Traders buy the undervalued ICE Brent futures at $100 and simultaneously sells a physical Forward Brent cargo at $130. They execute an EFP to swap their long paper futures position into a long physical Forward position.
The newly acquired long physical position cancels out their short physical position, locking in a profit (minus the EFP swap cost). To execute this arbs on a large scale, traders must aggressively buy ICE futures. This massive purchasing volume forces the futures price up until the gap closes and the arb window is eliminated.
3) Forced Short Covering
Market participants holding short positions in the ICE Brent futures market face extreme risk if the physical market disconnects to the upside.
Knowing the contract is destined to cash-settle against a $130 physical Index, paper shorts cannot afford to hold their $100 positions into expiration.
They are forced to buy back their futures contracts to close their positions before the expiry date.
This forced buying—often resulting in a short squeeze—accelerates the upward momentum of the ICE futures price, driving it into alignment with the physical market.
Through the combination of final index settlement and active EFP arbs, the paper market is structurally tethered to physical reality as expiration approaches.
A very complex mechanism has arisen. I don’t think that I could explain it to someone else, without looking at what you are saying.
Of course, the energy diet will (at least temporarily) break a lot of supply lines as well. There will be a lot of “empty shelves” in stores, or the reduced supply will be high-priced. I
PGPORT”
Several Iranian ships (mostly bulkers) signaling a new destination on their AIS, as “PGPORT” (Persian Gulf Port) rather than declaring that they are going, as it’s very likely, to Iran. Next, I bet: “PGFORORDERS.” — Javier Bias , Bloomberg
another good comment over at Quark’s
(reante is this you?)
I wonder if the drop can be correlated with the Limits to Growth timeline? In other words if “the Hand” is using AI-enhanced strategic intelligence to grab power and remaining value while pulling off a managed decline (the reason why partisan politics looks like a hallucinated, B-rated pro wrestling promo) the results of the chess moves would align with the expected drop in industrial production (the signature) and inflate the importance of the controllers (Setting FIRES with the Ivy league protocols during Covid.. the “cure” is worse than the disease, policies drive elderly deaths to prove severity and justify lockdowns, resulting in economic fall-out and allowing emergency mass alpha testing of experimental technology and medicine and the 1% cash-in).
The EEAAO School of Foreign Policy (everything, everywhere all at once):
“The agenda is a technocratic “managed decline” that uses hyper-saturated digital escapism to mask the physical dismantling of modern infrastructure. By overwhelming the public with “Verse-Jumping” (performative, viral distractions) and a “Multiverse” of infinite virtual choices, the state creates a psychological smokescreen for energy triage—the quiet decommissioning of the power grid and the enforcement of individual carbon quotas. Ultimately, the goal is to transition the masses from high-consumption “Main Character” syndrome to a state of radical contentment with subsistence living, where the “Everything” is experienced through a headset while the “Nothing” is delivered to the real world.” – Mr. Roboto
Thanks Diarm, no that’s not me. I’m not participating anywhere else and I would never do so under a different handle because that’ would be cosplay.
The Hand is not grabbing power. This is not a power and money grab. The Hand has no more interest in gaming the system than I would have in taking hay of my field and stacking it in the house til it was coming out the windows. I don’t eat hay and the Hand doesn’t chase money. We ARE the System not of it. If I was to fill the house with hay that hurts the System.
Managed decline needs to be understood as pushing the economy in a direction in which at least some of the elite can enhance their wealth and status. At the same time, they try to push the rest of the population toward living at a subsistence level, living on virtual consumption as much as possible.
I disagree with that. Phase 2 will discourage elitist culture both ideologically and structurally because that’s how the collapsing civilization optimizes social stability.
” Ultimately, the goal is to transition the masses from high-consumption “Main Character” syndrome to a state of radical contentment with subsistence living, where the “Everything” is experienced through a headset while the “Nothing” is delivered to the real world.” – Mr. Roboto ;
Thanks , I missed this .
An Israeli perspective of Arab dhimmi racism and its impact on the post Shoah guilty European bias which hates the continued existence of Jews; as expressed through classic church/new Israel replacement theology; Romans 10:12–13 – “For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek, since the same Lord of all is rich to all who call on him. For everyone who calls on the name of the Lord will be saved.” Tawhid & Nicene “Monotheism”, both theology creed belief systems violate both the first and second Sinai commandments. A fundamental distinction separates the chosen Cohen seed of Avraham Yitzak and Yaacov from either Yishmael or Esav – only Israel accepts the local tribal god of Israel. Universal monotheism unilaterally declares prophets sent to all nations and Goyim grafted on to the chosen Cohen inheritance.
Today Israelis stand and remember “Yom Ha-Shoah”. We Israelis renew the post Shoah oath “Never Again”. We remember the ping-ball custom, practiced by both European and Arab societies, to arbitrarily “solve” their racist “Jewish Problem” throughout the Ages – “Never Again”. The Nazi ‘inferior race’, Arab racism denies Jewish equal rights to achieve כוח ריבוני-Political Independents as an Independent Jewish State in the Middle East. Pre-war White Papers coupled with post war British forced encampments of Jewish refugee survivors, returned to Germany or Cyprus – further amplifies the Israeli post Shoah oath of “NEVER AGAIN” which Yom HaShoah remembers. Both European and Arab/Muslim ‘good name’ reputations shattered with the ’48 forced expulsions of Jews from Arab countries, combined with all Arab states refusal to repatriate their refugee on par with how Israel repatriates Jewish refugee populations. Not a single Arab country has agreed to accept Gazan refugee populations who want to leave destroy Gaza and become “citizens” in other countries. Diplomacy among nations classically entails cutting a political alliance. Such a political alliance stands upon mutually shared trust and interests. The UN spectacularly fails in building on ‘trust’; UN Resolution 1701 serves as a strong proof long before UNWRA joined Hamas on Oct 7th 2023.
The capacity for Jewish self-defense and political independence – defines modern Zionism. Israel “recaptured” Samaria from Jordan in the 1967 Six-Day War. After 1948 “Palestine” ceased to exist. Jordan, named its illegal – according to the UN condemnation – “occupation” of its “West Bank”; only Pakistan and Britain recognized the Jordanian nationalization of its “West Bank”. Never once from 1948 – 67 did Jordan validate a “Palestine” of its illegally occupied “West Bank”. The UN did not pass a single resolution titled “Condemnation of Jordan,” it refused to recognize the annexation. Even Yasser Arafat’s PLO Charter did not view Jordan’s illegal occupation of its ’48 “West Bank” as “occupied Palestine”. In international law, non‑recognition of an annexation is the mechanism for declaring it invalid. No different from the UN rejection of Indonesia’s ‘East Timor’, Turkey’s ‘Northern Cyprus’, Russia’s ‘Crimea’. The PLO Charter of 1964 likewise did not view Egyptian rule over Gaza as “occupied Palestinian territory”. The collective UN position was unmistakably that Jordan had no sovereignty over the West Bank; but starting with the purposely vague language of 242 “territories occupied in the recent [1967] conflict”, perfectly clarified by 2334 the UN declares sovereignty to Palestine; despite the cold hard fact that Israel – not a protectorate mandate territory and that Arab Israeli wars determine its borders! Therefore, the post‑1967 terminology is a political invention, not a continuation of pre‑1967 legal reality.
But post ’67, BBC propaganda screamed “occupied Palestinian territories” – inclusive of both Samaria and Gaza! Britain had no mandate, and therefore no legal claim to make this condemnation of Israel. The same equally applies to the UN through its 242 “all States” propaganda; which serve as the foundation for UN condemnations of Israeli “illegal” settlements of “Palestinian lands”; UN 2334 and the UN open recognition of the “Palestinian State” – proof of propaganda. Never in all human recorded history has their ever existed a “land of Palestine” – not under Ottoman or Arab empires.
The characterization of land as “occupied Palestinian territories” by both the UN and BBC and French propaganda evokes strong reactions, particularly among those who view this language as delegitimizing Israel’s claims, primarily based upon the 1923 British establishment of Trans-Jordan bordering “Israel” at the Jordan river. The application and interpretation of resolutions, such as UN Resolution 242, initiated to “international claims”/”competing narratives” by foreign outside States regarding “land rights and statehood” with a pro Arab bias which fundamentally rejects dhimmi Jews equal rights to achieve self-determination in the Middle East post the 1917 Balfour Declaration which served as the basis for the League division of Lebanon and Syria awarded to France and Palestine, Trans-Jordan awarded to Britain – based upon the secret accords known today as Sykes-Picot.
No Israeli-Palestinian “conflict” exists in reality because post the declaration of Jewish national Independence in 1948 the UN “protectorate” over “Palestine” ceased to exist. No different than this mandate ceased to exist as a “British mandate territory” officially ended after it turned that “mandate territory” back to the UN in 1948. From that moment on the British Crown had no more say in the determination of Israeli Independence than it does to determine the Capital of Austin Texas. This equally applies to the post WWII established UN.
Post-1948, no separate national entity represented as “Palestine” in international law or governance, particularly under Jordanian control of its illegally occupied West Bank and Egyptian control of Gaza – until 1967. The phrase “recaptured” to describe Israel’s actions during the 1967 Six-Day War reflects a perspective that emphasizes a historical and religious connection to the land. This contrasts with views that describe the action as an occupation of land that was already controlled by Jordan — which the UN itself condemned as illegal in 1950.
UN Resolution 242 and consecutive resolutions employed as Foreign State imperialism propaganda rhetoric which seeks peace. War the result of all British two state solutions! India/Pakistan, Iraq\Kuwait, and two Koreas and two Vietnams glaring examples of ‘great power’ foreign national interests imposed upon “conquered” lands. Great Power international “diplomacy” – the British labelled as “maintaining the balance of power” – which suited British [לאו דווקא] strategic interests.
The UN’s later recognition of a Palestinian state a further attempt to rewrite historical claims and narratives that do not acknowledge the complexities of sovereignty and self-determination in the context of this region. The framing of successful Israel national Independence by media outlets – such as the BBC and other organizations – have promoted wars not peace. Shalom requires “trust”, peace simply a propaganda “label” of rhetoric. The success of Allied propaganda during WWI which unilaterally declared the Germans as “the Hun barbarians at the gates” produced profound effects on public perception. Critics argue – propaganda rhetoric language that injects “occupation”, aligns with Arab narratives which switched the term Nakba from Arab disastrous military defeat unto Arab stateless Palestinian refugees. No Arab country has yet to end or terminate the refugee status which UNWRA promotes and serves this particular political foreign ‘Great Power States’ imperialist agendas.
Propaganda that Israel repeatedly violates “international law”, simply another gross example of UN Great Power manipulations expressed through BBC and MSM propaganda arms of foreign states attempts to ‘control the narrative’ through words. Israel as an independent nation – its international borders determined through wars and the diplomacy its establishes with regional state powers. Neither the Parliament of London or any other distant foreign power determines where Israel establishes its Capital much less its international borders with other nation states which share common borders.
From 1948-67 no recognized sovereign “Palestine” in international law. Jordan and Egypt did not treat their respective areas as “Palestine,” and the UN did not recognize their sovereignty there. Therefore, the later phrase “occupied Palestinian territories” — not a continuation of pre‑1967 legal language, but a post‑1967 political construction.
UN SC 242 (1967) inserts the phrase “withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict,” not “all the territories” and not “Palestinian territories”; UN SC 2334 (2016) morphs into “occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem,” and labels Israeli settlements there as having “no legal validity.” This effectively retrofits a Palestinian sovereignty claim onto areas that, pre‑1967, had no recognized Palestinian state and no recognized Jordanian/Egyptian sovereignty either. 2334 and the UN’s recognition of “Palestine” as a non‑member observer state (2012) represent a political re‑narration, not a neutral continuation of Mandate‑era law.
Post‑1967 BBC usage of “occupied Palestinian territories” mirrors the UN’s later terminology, not the earlier legal reality. Britain, having ended its Mandate in 1948, has no legal standing to define Israel’s borders or capital, yet its media and diplomacy still act as if they are arbiters of legitimacy; a continuation of Great Power narrative control—the same mentality that carved up the region under Sykes–Picot and Mandate arrangements. Language like “occupation,” “illegal settlements,” “Palestinian territories” is not neutral description; it’s weaponized vocabulary that encodes a particular political and historical judgment.
The Abraham Accords invalidates European Middle East politics. In strict legal terms, the Middle East and North African conflict, while acknowledging both terrorist violence with its consequential suffering consequence domino-effect/impact, in strict legal terms, this ongoing-conflict most basically pits Israel against neighboring Arab states rather than Arab nationalist Palestinian nationalist movements. While the Romans renamed Judea unto Palestine, the Roman empire long since dead. The Arab empire uprooted the Roman empire – hook, line, and sinker. Therefore 19th Century French maps sold to the ‘sick man of Europe’, as empty as the deceased Ottoman empire. No different from the dead League of Nations “Palestine mandate”, and the dead British, French, Nazi, and USSR communist empires; their world order no long exists – even the flies not interested in the dry bones of their corps. The League of Nations, and how much more so the post WWII UN have no power to create pre‑existing sovereign “Palestine”. Despite the UN or Britain\French propaganda, continuous retroactive attempts to resurrect – like Jesus on the 3rd day – this dead Roman corpse from its grave.
UNRWA and its permanent Arab refugee status of both ’48 and ’67 Arabs who sought to complete the Nazi Shoah by throwing the Jews into the Sea, such propaganda rhetoric – employed as a deliberate political tool, not a humanitarian necessity—sustaining statelessness to maintain a grievance narrative whose evil intent exploded on Oct 7th 2023 when UNWRA officials participated together with Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the massacre of 1200 or more Israelis; coupled with the Red Cross refusal to visit for some two years the captured Israeli hostages held under barbaric conditions. The League “Palestine Mandate” stood upon the foundation of the Balfour Declaration. Post ’67 UN declarations changed the goal-posts. Immediately after the declaration of Israeli Independence, the UN had no protectorate over “Palestine”; anymore than did Britain after it returned the League mandate back to the UN.
The post‑Shoah European narrative toward Israel reflects a convergence of Arab dhimmi attitudes toward Jews, Christian supersessionist theology, and Great Power political interests. This convergence has produced a persistent bias that frames Jewish sovereignty as an anomaly to be corrected rather than a legitimate expression of national self‑determination. The language of “occupation,” “illegal settlements,” and “Palestinian territories” is not a continuation of pre‑1967 legal reality but a political vocabulary constructed after the Six‑Day War, retroactively projecting sovereignty onto a territory that—between 1948 and 1967—neither Jordan nor Egypt treated as “Palestine,” and which the UN itself refused to recognize as belonging to either state.
The Abraham Accords further expose the obsolescence of European frameworks, demonstrating that regional peace emerges from regional actors—not from external powers imposing narratives rooted in outdated colonial assumptions. The UN’s and European states’ continued use of “occupied Palestinian territories” reflects not legal continuity but political reinvention, shaped by post‑colonial guilt, theological inheritance, and geopolitical interests.
Power politics affects which situations are pursued and how strongly. The UN does not repeatedly condemn Turkey’s acquisition of Cyprus, or Russia’s nationalization of Crimea. Its continued employment of “West Bank” in fact supports the illegal Jordanian nationalization of Samaria. Therefore, the swarm of UN condemnations of Israeli “illegal occupation of Palestinian territory” – wholly invalid.
The weakness of the UN system proves itself to exist as but a fig leaf which conceals ‘great power imperialism’. ‘West Bank’ treated as a geographic descriptor tied to current diplomatic frameworks, simply UN legal jargon propaganda which raises red-flags concerning the “neutrality” of the UN; placed on par with the corrupt UNWRA post Oct 7th 2023 and the failure of the Red Cross to visit the captured Israeli hostages for the entire two years torture.
Selective enforcement ⇒ the UN’s determinations – wholly invalid; starting with the Korean War which directly violated the US Constitution and directly led to the Vietnam War – totally invalidates the UN as a legal body. These fundamental, most basic contradictions, not minor or petty “debates”. But rather the Institutional failure and total collapse of the UN legal doctrine. The combination of selective enforcement, bloc politics, and evolving terminology undermines the perceived neutrality of UN determinations – among Israeli has destroyed all “trust” and we equate the UN on par with the dead League of Nations.
This idea that “A rule can remain legally valid even if applied inconsistently” serves as a despicable example of “Do as I say but not as I do”. In legal practice the UN treats “West Bank” as a current operational/geographic term that recognizes a Palestinian state! This blatant hypocrisy – “contradictions + political bias ⇒ total collapse of UN legal doctrine, Israelis view as part of the Yom HaShoah “NEVER AGAIN” oath that perpetuated the “Jewish Problem” Nazi “Final Solution”. No UN condemnations ever over Nassers and other Arab leaders repeated attempts to throw the Jews into the Sea.
Legal forums often dismiss Israeli self-determination “outright”. What else is new? Starting with the famous 3 No’s Arab state absolutely reject the “claims” made by Zionist Crusaders that dhimmi Jews share equal rights to achieve Independent self-determination in the Middle East; even in a land about the size of the State of New Jersey! UN post ’67 politics reflects a NT ‘nation divided against itself cannot stand’ Roman imperialism; especially as viewed from the perspective that the Apostle Paul served as Rabban Gamliel’s agent provocateur injected into Xtian circles to undermine the influence of this false messiah notion by declaring circumcision null and void – similar to Reform Judaism. And travelling to Rome and declaring JeZeus as Lord savior son of God when polytheistic Roman theology recognized Caesar as the son of God!
Since you cite gentiles’ “Gospel”, here is some more for you:
https://biblehub.com/colossians/3-11.htm
I probably should increase my medication, but I still see “Scythians” everywhere “higher up”. Herodotus described them as being red-haired, fat, faces covered with sunspots and big fans of cannabis. “Blondies” they are called in modern day “אֶרֶץ יִשְׂרָאֵל” 👱♀️😅
What was it again that you’ve actually said on the actual blog topic, about “Exploring how oil limits affect the economy“?
:)) Have a fire red “gengi” eldest daughter who has two “gengi” daughters. Whooooooooooooooooooop
President Trump has pulled another rabbit out of his hat. The on-going US navy blockade of the Straight of Hormuz accomplishes the exact same result and consequences of a marine invasion of Kharg Island. Kharg Island handled approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil shipments, most of which are directed to China. Now China forced to buy US Oh so maple syrup sweet oil from the US.
This explains the rising stock market now. The little reverse blockade seems to be working.
Exactly. Trump understands he does not require a WWII Marine invasion of Karhg Island. Iran thought they could close the straight of Hormuz so the US navy closed through an embargo this key waterway! Lincoln imposed a total embargo of Southern ports and destroyed the Southern economy!
The US Civil War seemed to take place at a time similar to today. There were way too many people for resources. There were lots of problems:
-Recruits for the Civil War tended to be short because of poor nutrition.
-The soil in the Southeast was depleted because of growing tobacco and cotton.
-Louis Pasteur and other researcher showed doctors that they needed to wash their hands before delivering babies. There were other hygiene improvements that also helped life expectancy.
-Slaves had been purchased using debt repayable to British holders, but the earnings by slaves using the depleted soil was not sufficient to repay the debt with interest.
Fox news . If you believe this then I have a bridge to sell you . 🤣
Amen. And normally I would agree with you; called Faux fake news after its open betrayal of Ron Paul. But MSM propaganda press – which includes Faux – CNN, NBC, and Abc all universally jumped upon the Obama/Clinton Russia-gate hoax throughout Trump 1.0.
But mainstream media will repeat the story.
Speaking of ” Blondies ” – here still duking it out aged 86:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0rre4d9k0o
England, France, Germany & Spain – Guilty then and today. Eurovision bans “October Rain”. Why? Guilt for supporting the Arab/South African ‘blood libel’ “interpretation” of Genocide in the UN and European Courts! NEVER AGAIN shall post Shoah Jewish state of Israel permit Europeans to “decide” their racist “Jewish Problem” with their “Final Solution”. Bunk on the British French UN Security Council 242 … 2334 revisionist history that stands upon the grave of church substitute theology.
“Before the Crusaders ever reached Jerusalem, they massacred entire Jewish communities across Europe. The Rhineland massacres of 1096 killed thousands of Jews in Germany — men, women, children — in cities like Worms, Mainz, and Cologne. The Crusaders hadn’t even left Europe yet. The ‘holy war’ started with Jewish blood. Every textbook teaches the Crusades as Christians versus Muslims. The Jewish chapter — the first chapter — was deliberately removed.”
“sustaining statelessness to maintain a grievance narrative ”
And exactly what has your side did since they lost to the Romans? They could have returned to their homeland anytime in the last 500 years but wanted to do so through violent conquest of the Other.
Trying to move people around and enforce new territory outlines is not working well at all. Israel is a particular example of this. As a Jew in Israel, you feel very much entitled to all of the area in Israel (at least as I read this).
I think the basic issue is too many people for too few resources, including fresh water. There would not be fighting, if there were enough for a reasonable standard of living for all.
Zionism, I am a secular zionist, all about Jewish equal rights to achieve Jewish self determination within the classic borders of Judea & Samaria. This land, about the size of New Jersey!
Post ’48 Arabs enjoy Israeli citizenship. You honestly need to research this complex subject. I write to address how powerful nation state great power politics seeks to dominate the balance of power in the Middle East.
Britain, prior to the Jewish national independence made the same exact argument “to many people for to few resources, including fresh water”. Israel exports water and has developed farming technologies that all countries across the World import!
During the time of the 1936 Peel Commission British mandate Palestine had a population of 1.5 million people. As of April 14, 2026, the population of Israel is approximately 9,617,933 people.
I am a tiny bit aware. I visited Israel in 2019 with my sister Lois Tverberg. She writes about Jesus’s Jewish context and how that influenced his teaching. She has spent quite a bit of time in Israel. Of course, we visited Bethlehem (in ancient Samaria). We also visited some other parts of ancient Samaria. We did not visit Gaza.
I understand that the term Judea and Samaria is sometimes used to exclude the part along the coast of Israel.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/What-Does-the-Term-Judea-and-Samaria-Mean
England, France, Germany & Spain – Guilty then and today. Eurovision bans “October Rain”. Why? Guilt for supporting the Arab/South African ‘blood libel’ “interpretation” of Genocide in the UN and European Courts! NEVER AGAIN shall post Shoah Jewish state of Israel permit Europeans to “decide” their racist “Jewish Problem” with their “Final Solution”. Bunk on the British French UN Security Council 242 … 2334 revisionist history that stands upon the grave of church substitute theology.
The population of Mexico City over 20 million people.
“Killing the internet first would probably be a smart move.” And go back to a world where long range communication was primarily done by consuming more physical resources? They would rather go up in a mushroom cloud . They are hard-line futurists.
The communications netwroks as a whole before the internet did not consume more resources, just as a more energy efficient microchip with smaller nodes has a much more resource and energy consuming production and logistics chain in the background.
” just as a more energy efficient microchip with smaller nodes has a much more resource and energy consuming production and logistics chain in the background.”
Do you think the average educated person understands that?
Do you think the average business manager or economist understands that ?
It is not a matter of energy but of time. In the old days it took forever to connect overseas, and cost much more. The energy saved is not in the telecom itself, but rather the energy and time saved by streamlining supply chains.
With all due respect, drb, you do not (yet) see how deep what Curt and user have just said, goes…
I don’t want to go back to the technological level of the 1970-1980s of the good old USSR. I did hate the analog record players, since I saw the (early) Sony-manufactured CD demonstration in a very short, probably less than 1 minute technological news clip on the 1st channel (out of 1 (as in “one”) available over-the-air TV channel in my rural area) Soviet TV…
I observe this recent years’ artificial craze about going back to the analog LPs collecting/listening hipsters’ technologically backward, primitive, reactionary idiotizm and I think to myself – reante must be right about something here…
Digging the PR-msm much back then ?
Well, honestly ( and I’m not full HQ ranked audiophile ) the first 8-16bit gen of CDs was pretty lame sound presentation even to laymen, it took almost two decades before the whole digital chain (masters) done in the newly equipped digital studios finally matched in some respect the analog quality LP recording sound fidelity..
Obviously, for the general pop it seemed as
fantastically revolutionary progress, then suddenly in the early mid 1990s LP record rejuvenated itself because of understanding the culprit in truncated CD sound.
This was only crushed by more powerful PCs and high speed internet, so compression ala FLAC and similar superseded that shi#ty audio quality of CDs.. in the mid 2000s
The appeal of record players is not just the record player itself but the fact that the music played on it was, on average, better than what is contemporary music. Playing contemporary music on a record player would sound awkward and it would also be faced with the reality of no buyers. The market for contemporary music believes that music is disposable background noise, not something you play again and again.
“I don’t want to go back to the technological level of the 1970-1980s of the good old USSR” Assuming that it’s even possible, you would not have a say in the matter. When contemporary electronics from Asia become unavailable, you will have to make do with what can be made domestically or nearby. You’d be considered lucky if something as primitive as a record player could even be engineered domestically.
You must be one of those remaining highly-intelligent “Slovakians”, Curt…
A well concealed secret, about modern CPUs and RAM being prohibitively energy-expensive to manufacture, residing on top of the proverbial energy consumption pyramid integrated circuits:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2210537922001020
TL;DR: modern miniaturized ICs, still widely available to the unwashed gentiles, will have to go extinct. Double benefit – global communications will become very expensive and highly-controllable again. No more (decentralized) UseNet/IRC/Gopher/Skype for you, Citizen:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2210537922001020
😅💀☠️
user, why are you taking that statement of mine from a couple days ago completely out of context? I said in reply to Gail regarding establishing hypothetical Hunger Games City states. If the Hand was to favor some regions by leaving others hanging out to dry then if I were that idiotic Hand I would at least not be so idiotic as to not cut the internet first so that that attempted city state wouldn’t be so likely to be besieged by rebel forces.
Normal bias is extremely strong because the severity of the unfolding events is very extreme and it is not seem before in history and there is no historical guidance. By burying the head in the sand, the ostrich felt very safe and secure.
Not only is SoH closed, many of the petrochemical facility is damaged and repairs, if it is possible will take years. Global economy has to carry on without a pause. Any pause is deadly.
Case of point – in Thailand, the
Economist and many other “professionals” likes to say “We have xxx amount of oil left in our reserves and if SoH is not opened by xxx, then we will run out.”
Extremely linear thinking. Wish thinking at best
There is a difference between (1) high oil prices but things will revert to normal once it is over (2) high oil prices and no end in sight and facilities are damaged or destroyed. You think oil will be around USD150 if it is not available in large quantities anymore? Ravi mentioned that there were bidders but no sellers
To depopulate or not to depopulate that is the question?
ᵀʰᵉʸ ʷᵃⁿᵗ ʸᵒᵘ ᵈᵉᵃᵈ: ᵗʰᵉ ᵐᵒᵛⁱᵉ
Yeah, nice, you can almost see the spot market drying up altogether now that six weeks has passed.
Siegfried
9 a.m.
Edited
PART 2
PROJECTIONS
We are facing a scenario of “Total Strategic Paralysis.” The above describes a symmetrical shutdown: the United States has physically locked down the Iranian economy, while Iran has activated its “geographical veto” to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a trade exclusion zone for the rest of the world.
Adding the potential activation of the Houthis in the Red Sea and the militias in Iraq/Syria (should this occur), the global energy flow faces a disruption not seen since the 1973 crisis. The following is a technical projection of the resulting scenarios and their probabilities for the coming weeks.
1. Scenarios and Probabilities (April – May 2026)
Asymmetric War of Attrition (Stalemate): 40%
Iran uses ground-based missiles and drones to block oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US maintains its blockade of Iran. Neither side takes the step toward a full-scale invasion or any kind of massive attack.
Impact on Crude Oil (Brent): $120 – $150
Total Regional Escalation (The Great Fire): 40%
Israel exploits the chaos to attack nuclear facilities. Iran responds with massive ballistic missiles. Hezbollah remnants persist on Israel’s northern front. Pro-Iranian militias become active in Iraq and Syria. The Houthis blockade Bab el-Mandeb. The US is forced to intervene on the ground and/or further escalation occurs, as previously mentioned (power plants, bridges, and the subsequent Iranian responses).
Impact on Crude Oil (Brent): $180 – $250+
Capitulation Under Pressure (The Trump Deal): 10%
Internal economic strangulation in Iran sparks unrest. China pressures Tehran to save its own economy. An emergency agreement is signed in May or late April.
Impact on Crude Oil (Brent): Relief $90 – $95
Collapse of the Global Order (Black Swan): 10%
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea triggers a chain reaction of European bank failures. The US enters a deep recession before the November elections, forcing a retreat.
Impact on Crude Oil (Brent): Extreme Volatility
2. The “Pincer Effect”: Hormuz and the Red Sea
If the Houthis activate the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (Red Sea) simultaneously with the Iranian siege of Hormuz, the world’s commercial architecture will collapse:
• No Alternatives: Normally, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, some of the flow is diverted through pipelines to the Red Sea. If the Houthis block that outlet, Saudi Arabia’s oil is “trapped” on the peninsula.
• The cost of time: Ships would have to round Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. This adds 15 days to the journey and quintuples insurance and fuel costs. Social acceptance in the West would collapse due to inflation in the price of basic goods.
3. The Militias’ Play: The Ground Front
Not everything happens at sea. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria play a critical role:
• Attacks on US Bases: They will try to overwhelm the air defenses of US bases to force casualties and generate internal political pressure in the US (especially with an eye on the November elections).
• Pipeline Sabotage: They can attack Iraq’s internal pipelines that supply Turkey and Europe, closing the last energy escape valve.
4. Who blinks first? (The deciding factor)
In this duel of mutual blockades, the winner will not be the one with the most ships, but the one with the greatest tolerance for internal pain:
• For Iran: Their pain is hunger and the collapse of the state due to lack of income (Trump’s blockade is a slow death sentence).
• For the US (Trump): His biggest concerns are the price of gasoline and the stability of Wall Street. If the tech bubble bursts due to the energy shock before Iran backs down, Trump will lose the support of Congress and his voters.
• For Israel: Their pain is time. They see this crisis as a unique opportunity to eliminate the nuclear threat before diplomacy achieves a new agreement that “ties their hands.”
Final Conclusion
One of the most likely scenarios (40%) is a violent and costly stalemate. Iran will not surrender immediately because it is confident that global economic chaos will force the US to ease the blockade. On the other hand, the Israeli IDF’s determination to “finish the job” acts as an accelerator, pushing the probability of all-out war to 40%, the highest figure in the region’s modern history.
Tomorrow, after the first 24 hours of the total blockade, we will see if Iran decides to “test” the US Navy with an asymmetric land attack or if the diplomatic silence in Islamabad is the prelude to a tactical surrender.
Copy/paste Quark
Go ahead, baby, go ahead
Go ahead and light up the town
And, baby, do everything your heart desires
Remember, I’ll always be around
And I know, I know
Like I told you so many times before
https://www.ft.com/content/2f1cbc7d-eeab-40e4-b940-61bf8b1e7959
> Why time is on Iran’s side
A global energy crisis is only just beginning. Political turmoil will follow
.. The Iranians believe that time is on their side in this confrontation and they are probably right. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the more the economic and political pressure on the US and its allies will mount. As a result, Iran’s negotiating hand is likely to be stronger — if and when peace talks resume.
The loss of some 20 per cent of the world’s energy supplies has already been called the “greatest global energy security threat in history” by Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency. He has warned that today’s crisis could dwarf the combined effects of the oil shocks of the 1970s — which caused several years of inflation, recessions and fuel rationing.
The economic impacts of the current war were cushioned for a while because a lot of oil and gas from the Gulf was already at sea when the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. But the effects of the strait’s closure — and of Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure — are now really kicking in.
A rise in the price of petrol at the pump is just the beginning. A shortage of jet fuel will hit air travel, which will damage tourism just ahead of the crucial summer season in Europe. A lack of helium — much of which is produced in Qatar — could stop the production of semiconductors. Food production will be damaged by fertiliser shortages which will lead to further inflation. The Asian Development Bank has recently forecast that the energy crisis could reduce growth by more than 1 per cent this year in developing Asia.
Trump clearly hopes that the economic pressure exerted on Iran through the blockade will force the Islamic republic to back down quickly. But the Iranian regime is resourceful, ruthless and fighting for its life. Iran also has a cushion of income generated by its recent oil sales at inflated prices and can generate some revenue through gas exports by pipeline.
If Trump’s blockade fails to bend Iran to America’s will, the US will then face some very difficult choices. The president has floated the possibility of devastating Iranian infrastructure and sometimes suggests that a military operation to open the strait would be easy.
But the truth is that if these were good or workable options they would have been tried already. Even if the US succeeds in sending some warships through the strait that will not guarantee the safety of commercial shipping. Iran does not have to sink or block every tanker. A few attacks with drones or speedboats would continue to make tanker traffic all but uninsurable.
If the US then decided to escalate further — by carrying through on Trump’s threats to take out Iranian power plants and desalination facilities — the Iranians have threatened to target similar facilities in the Gulf. Without the fresh water generated by desalination plants, life in the UAE and Saudi Arabia would be pretty impossible.
The oil pipeline that crosses Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea — and provides an alternative to exporting via the strait — has been targeted already and could be hit again. The Saudi pumping stations on the coast are also vulnerable. Iran’s Houthi allies could seek to block energy exports via the Red Sea, by targeting ships in the Bab-al-Mandab strait…
“Houthi allies could seek to block energy exports via the Red Sea, by targeting ships in the Bab-al-Mandab strait…”
I don’t think they need to target anything anymore, just say it’s a possibility. The US Navy is now going around Africa(to then sit a thousand miles away from the target), because they can’t shake the fear off, just from the mere threat.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-carrier-takes-africa-long-route-to-avoid-red-sea–bab-al
All because… Winning
Interesting!
This article says:
Trump’s blockade more deception than reality
Rezaei further explained that “Trump’s talk of initiating a naval blockade on Iran is more deception than reality,” warning that “if Trump implements his blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, it will be considered an act of war, and we will respond to it.”
He also noted that the recent US measure related to the Strait of Hormuz “will lead to further complications in the current situation he is struggling with and will increase market instability.”
It leads to less oil getting to buyers around the world, so it is a net negative on the world economy.
IEA DIRECTOR: RECOVERY TO NORMALCY POST ENERGY CRISIS TRIGGERED BY WAR MAY REQUIRE TWO YEARS – AL JAZEERA
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2043763777955606796
Even the two year statement is very optimistic. Normal, before all of this started, was “not enough to go around” of jet fuel and diesel. Many minerals were in short supply including fresh water, copper, platinum, antimony, many others. This problem will still exist. We can’t get back to normalcy, with our current population and level of industry.
The level of destruction that Trump and Netanyahu have unleashed looks to be one for the ages. We are already seeing protests and civil unrest in different parts of the world.
The scary part is that there was some oil already available. What will it look like in 6-8 weeks when oil is not available to keep IC functioning? Things could get UGLY and on top of that, fertilizer shortages will begin to affect certain parts of the world as they approach growing season.
When people get hungry and there is little or nothing to eat, the Plebs, tend to get rather violent.
Most of the Midwest and most of Europe plant in April, meaning that they need to fertilize in March. I think that ship has 90% sailed.
drb , I think there was enough fertiliser in the northern hemisphere for sowing in March . Correct me if I am wrong ? Trouble starts in Southern Hemisphere where sowing starts end of May– June to time it for receiving the monsoon rains .
OK, so if the North is fine, and a lot of the South is in a tropical area, a 30% reduction in urea will produce maybe 10% crop reduction. Of course much of the southern production goes to China and the rich Middle East.
I also think that there is a lot of locally produced fertilizer.
This article says that China is the largest fertilizer producer in the world. (That has been my understanding as well.)
https://agtoday.info/2025/06/09/china-fertilizer-2025/
China is the world’s largest fertilizer producer and consumer, driven by its vast agricultural sector. The market is dominated by nitrogen (urea), phosphate, and potassium fertilizers, with significant government influence through subsidies, production quotas, and environmental regulations. Key players include state-owned enterprises like Sinochem and private firms such as Kingenta.
The articles we read of shortfalls relate to imported fertilizers. Countries that can produce fertilizers for themselves, and are in fact exporters, have fewer problems.
Gail , you are wrong . So what is local supply ? Out of 6 fertiliser factories in India 5 are shutdown . Why ? No LNG . LNG comes from Qatar but the fertiliser was certified as local . Another example . Australia has no imports of oil from SoH . Correct , but Australia buys all its refined products from Japan , SK and Singapore who source 90% from GCC . The answers are in the detail .
Ravi > CHN transforms RU imported hydrocarbons ( via pipe / rail / vessel ) into its “domestic” fertilizers.
Others don’t have ( did not like ) this trade connection hence over reliance on other exporters in cases you depict notable on GCC as you mentioned.
India is a place that uses a lot of imported fertilizer. Fertilizer made with LNG is a problem. China uses coal to make nitrogen fertilizer.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-coal-based-urea-insulates-its-farmers-global-fertiliser-turmoil-2026-04-07/
Western countries run on plentiful strategic reserves ( months of diesel – not for public use ) so planting season 2026 is not going to be affected at all. Perhaps there are some outliers like Ireland though..
What happens next is the question, because even with rationing delivery trucks could be in problem by Q2-Q3.. as well as some key diesel running services ( infrastructure repair ), segments of public transport etc ..
Warning of oil shortages spreading to US and Europe as last Hormuz tankers reach Asia –FT
The last oil tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of war will reach refineries in the coming days, in a pivotal moment analysts warn could herald physical shortages in Europe and the US within weeks.
The final ships to clear the strait before the Iran war began on February 28 are expected to reach their destination in Malaysia and Australia by April 20, intensifying the supply shock already rippling across Asia.
But with Asian refineries responding by buying up a record number of crude oil cargoes that would normally have sailed to Europe and the US, analysts said that refiners in some of the world’s wealthiest countries may soon also face shortages.
“It will hit the west in a month when all the Asian cargoes bought leave the Atlantic basin,” said Nic Dyer, an analyst at Energy Aspects.
“Refineries in Europe and the US will also have to cut runs from next month to share the pain of the shortage.”
The last prewar deliveries to the US are set to end this week, while those to Africa had landed by April 10, according to JPMorgan. Denmark received its last jet fuel cargo from Kuwait at the weekend, the Wall Street bank said.
“Signs are emerging that the system may be coming under increasing strain,” said Natasha Kaneva, a JPMorgan analyst.
“The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and it’s unclear how the strait reopens to a state of normalcy. Physical barrels remain locked in the Gulf and the risk level of a ship entering the Gulf to load is even higher,” said Kurt Barrow, head of research for crude oil markets at S&P Global Energy.
https://archive.ph/20260413202221/https://www.ft.com/content/bcd72d2a-79cc-48db-a149-076cbca22a24#selection-1989.0-2228.0
One of the best summations (3:30min) i’ve heard in a long time comes from Prof Jiang Xuegin. He said: “The United States used to be the policeman of the world and now it has become the pirate of the world”.
I’m afraid that that is how it is: “The United States used to be the policeman of the world and now it has become the pirate of the world”.
“The United States used to be the policeman of the world”.
Policeman?
From 1945 the United States attempted to overthrow over 50 governments, many of them democracies, and to crush 30 popular movements fighting tyrannical regimes. In the process, over 25 countries were bombed, causing the loss of several million lives?
https://www.cia.gov/library/abbottabad-compound/5F/5FC9177D115DFAE199E5204183A6F3E2_Rogue_state__By_sout_al_khilafah.pdf
This article discusses how at least some people from all 3 Abrahamic rooted religions believe it’s end times. The article is a translation from an earlier article in Italian.
https://open.substack.com/pub/geopolitiq/p/the-holy-war-that-nobody-dares-to?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=bh3xy
The holy war that nobody dares to name
Messianism, the Third Temple, the Mahdi and the Crusades: the theological dimension of the Iran-US-Israel conflict that the West pretends not to see
in this forum we also believe it is the end times. the concept itself was created after the end of the Bronze Age.
Article explaining the two-sided problem that exists. The US depends on China for the parts it needs to upgrade the electrical grid, at the same time China depends on the US for advanced chips. Current plans for expanding AI will have to be scaled way back:
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/half-us-data-centers-are-set-be-canceled-or-delayed-2026
Half Of US Data Centers Scheduled To Start In 2026, Will Be Canceled Or Delayed
Indeed, while over the past 10 years, the US government has tried a series of policies to reshore manufacturing, they haven’t yet yielded a significant boost to domestic capacity, forcing businesses to look to China regardless of the tariffs or the alleged national security risk. As a result, the US now finds itself in an absurd Catch 22: the US needs crucial parts from China to dominate it in the AI race, while China needs advanced chips from American companies to stay in the race.
The biggest bottlenecks, understandably, have been observed in the power space – the same space we aggressively pitched two years ago as enabling the AI revolution, hoping that whoever was in charge of the US would take America’s chronic energy deficiency seriously.
Breaking Points covered that a few weeks ago on their YouTube channel.
is it really a need for China?
The head of the [ International Energy Agency ], Fatih Birol, said on Monday he hopes [ another oil stockpile release is not needed ] but “we stand ready to act” if the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran requires it.
The 32-member IEA agreed last month to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, the largest coordinated release ever, in a bid to calm oil markets. The U.S., the world’s largest oil and gas producer, agreed to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
–
https://x.com/staunovo/status/2043751419405013351
I can’t find my previous comment on this. There is sleight of hand involved, so as not to exhaust the reserve. IIRC, only part of the promised oil is release, and it is required to be paid back with interest. It is only when this first part is paid back with interest that the second part is released.
Update on the Hormuz blockade technical angle as debated bellow.
Today, Don kindly answered it for us by revealing it will be prosecuted the same way as drug smugglers on speed boats recently, which means using larger drones for that role ala MQ-9B SeaGuardian ( ~30hrs endurance ), these are not ubercheap to operate, but still bellow 1/10th of aircraft or chopper fees per hour.. nor danger for own naval deployment etc.
Hence, confirming the theory – this is not [ risk on / up ] maneuver for now..
So the blockade won’t really do very much.
Also, my impression was that the number of boats being used by the US is low, relative to what would actually be needed to fully close off the straight. (I haven’t really checked this, however.)
Total number of vessals ( note what ? destroyers , frigates or what ? Don’t know ) deployed is 15 . How many have helicopter takeoff and landing facilities ? Don’t know . If these vessals are out of range from Iranian missiles they have to be about 700 miles ( 1000 Km ) away from Iran . That means they have to cover a vast area of the ocean . Somewhere I posted about the shortage of bunker fuel earlier . How are these going to be refueled ? Will they go to Diego Garcia ? What if the Iranian tankers carry two-three soldiers with 20/30 manpads supplied by China recently and blow up the helicopters or vessals that approach them ? According to an expert only navy seals have the training to board vessals by small speed boats otherwise it is helicopters . If ZH knows where the ships are then so does IRGC .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mapping-hormuz-blockade-least-15-us-navy-ships-are-place
” Tehran’s strategy right now isn’t to “defeat” the 15 US warships. Its goal is to maintain chaos in civilian traffic to completely destroy the social acceptance of global energy markets. They know that if they manage to keep the price of oil at panic levels through rapid and sporadic bombings from their mountains, the pressure on Washington to rein in Israel and negotiate will be reignited, regardless of the maritime blockade.”
Confusion and high oil prices is a sufficient problem, even if the blockade does practically nothing!
Iranian and friendly ships come and go and will continue to do so.
Anyone that believes the US can blockade or shut Hormuz should really take a break from their disney diet and listen to Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani
“The US president’s threats following the disgraceful defeat of his country’s army in the third imposed war(against Iran) regarding a naval blockade of Iran are very ridiculous and laughable,”
I know Iran’s navy was 100% destroyed and they ran out of ordnance on the first day, only to see all their production destroyed on the second day and it was all over by the third day, but we still haven’t seen Iran’s arsenal yet, mostly just the basics.
You know that important bridge that all the western media harped on about being destroyed. It was operational again in 48hrs.
Some do, while others can only bloviate.
The threats, because that’s all they are, keep retreating, before, always being reneged on(boots on the ground, to ships a thousand miles away, because… Winning).
Satellite surveillance. A single coast guard ship previously used in only shallow water chased a Russian tanker around the world boarded it and took the spoils home. Satellite will identify smugglers. Their location will be provided to the destroyers. They will be boarded and the illegal goods confiscated. Unless China wants to send some missile frigates down and that is not in their operational plan. Their operational plan is stay away from our turf. China is not one to deviate from procedure. We will see. China thought they could sew up supply chains and continue their massive buildout industrial militarily and economically. The downside is they have a lot to lose. Just like Iran. That’s what makes yemen so undefeatable. Nothing to lose. China didn’t count on a moron gangster going mad. Neither did the people who voted for him. They just wanted a little more of the industrial civilization honey. Just like everyone. It would ruin even Yemen if they got a taste. A destroyer is basically a second rate retrofit missile frigates. It will only take one boarded and confiscated. If it’s France or UK they will probably get their ship back. Maybe. Trump don’t like them. No respect for weakness. Trump likes Iran A LOT more than France or UK.
Trump won’t let his blockade go. It has Iran more upset than any action taken to date. Thats their special power. Except it’s not. Any two bit player that has a bad day closes the strait now. The advantage. It only takes one. That advantage is much more easy for Iran because their assets are right there. That doesn’t mean it’s not easy for other actors. Who knows maybe a third party will add their closure decree. We want this. Or else. That probably won’t happen now but it will in the future.
It only takes one then the whole world has to kiss the ring even if it’s a two bit terrorist organization. Demonstrating operational capability in and around the strait is now is the key to the world.
No one has the power to open the strait with force. t’s easy to close it. With a tiny bit of force.
That means strait stays closed unless a baksheesh arraignment is reached. Unfortunately global economy will be destroyed long before that happens. Strait doesn’t matter then. No gets to hold the ring or share it. The Iranians thought their geophysical location gave them a exclusive. It doesn’t. They thought they had both a carrot and a stick. They dont. Because it’s relatively easy. It doesn’t take a state actor. As soon as a second actor closes the strait the carrot disappears . All that’s left is a nasty ass stick. Of course Iran is upset. Intellectual property rights don’t apply.
Now sharing the strait Baksheesh don’t seem so bad. It allows a strong Iran to provide security for the strait. As Irans operational capabilities degrade the ability to provide security for the strait degrades. Someone is going to extract Baksheesh at the strait while industrial civilization exists it’s like shoplifting when their is no prosecution under 1000. Yes people will do it. it’s just too easy. Of course Trump will do it. He’s openly said is much. What’s best is that someone has a lot of operational capabilities to maintain security to eliminate freelancers.That’s obviously Iran but USAs cut needs to be worked out. Otherwise it’s “or else”. Up until the strait just don’t matter any more because middle east infrastructure is destroyed in the power struggle or demand destruction occurs from economic destruction. Then the strait don’t matter. It has zero baksheesh value then. If the actors were smart they would work out a reasonable baksheesh arraignment. Both actors are both in all or nothing mode. Trump is not a very talented gangster. His art of the deal is do what I say or else. The best and most successful gangsters work out arrangements when faced with powerful adversaries.Iran doesn’ even have a drop of gangster blood. They don’t even realize when Trump tweeted “open the strait you crazy bastards praise be to Allah” he was giving them the greatest gangster compliment. Gangster respect. I ran doesn’t understand that. It’s like a shark trying to talk to martians. Iran ain’t giving up the dust now. I doubt they were ever going to give it up. It’s probably 90 percent now. They know if they give it up they are toast. Trumps respect would disappear. Not that he calls the shots.The most probable outcome is strait stays closed. First because of its baksheesh value then because it has no baksheesh value. In this it’s representation of oil is stunning. The most valuable thing on the planet then worthless.
“China didn’t count on a moron gangster going mad. Neither did the people who voted for him. They just wanted a little more of the industrial civilization honey. Just like everyone.”
Applause.
I mentioned something along this line earlier but with not such digested bravado, the conflict of different cultures, aka Kremlinologist effect v3.0 ( or rather ver3000 as they say in ClubMed hah )..
In ReAnte’s thesis it’s meta-structural pre-game planed decision making.
In my world it is decay civ with its ad hoc ~lowly globo gangster-ism x (vs) peculiar regional sub culture clash. And China yet another culture of its own cultural-bias baggage trying make sense out of it all.
Aka multi layered mess.
PS but lets allow for some of the sinister angle as well: lot of articles now about the approaching Chernobyl catastrophe 40yrs anniversary later this month – I stumbled on picture of western PC AT/XT machine near the controller panel of this NPP,
not sure it was pre or post event as they later worked some of these units back to grid. If it was indeed in that year – you know what that could suggest right, ..
( the msm story though claims it was a mix of design flaws of formerly military scaled-up design reactor and chain of operator errors ).
dog be bringing it with the gripping, nihilistic alternative reality. Nietzchean nihilism, Mirror. Will to Power nihilism. Except for the pussy Chinese awaiting their passive doom.
‘our turf.” What’s up with the “our,” dog?
China and Russia all along have been coping with the problem of the USAs aging nuclear arsenal. As USA outsourced their industrial capacity it has no way to compete with Russia and China. Russia and China only sane course of action is to buy time as the USA becomes increasingly reliant on exchanging dollars for goods as their nuclear capacity continues to degrade.
This is still the only sane path. Really for the good of humanity all nuclear weapons should be disassembled.
I had hoped that perhaps the USA would focus it’s shenanigans on the western hemisphere. In the absence of my dream of complete world nuclear disarment I think turf is important as we try to keep things calm. I would completely support some sort of agreement that nations keep their nuclear weapons home.
Of course now things are very uncertain. I do not think Iran will give its dust up. A fair solution would be for all nuclear armed nations in the region to agree to disarm their nuclear weapons. It would serve to set example for all nations doing so.
I’m afraid I feel there is a very high chance of nuclear weapons being used in Iran. I think the future is very uncertain then.
I believe the cessation of oil through the strait has grave consequences. I have felt that way for two decades. I stopped participating in this forum around 21. I felt my opinions about certain events were not appropriate for Gails forum.
The Chinese are not pussys. Nor are they saints. I feel the truest and most advanced martial styles are Chinese. The term pussy is rather crass when compared to the sophistication and devastating close combat styles of Chinese martial arts. These cultural accomplishments are mirrored by understandings of human energy fields in the healing arts. These sort of crass terms really have no place as nations try to avoid a thermonuclear exchange. Turf however does. Turf reflects self defense. If you value your people you can’t let a hostile nation bring nuclear weapons close. I think the Chinese establishment of military force projection in the south China sea fits the definition of self defense well. That doesn’t mean China is a saint in all things. When accessing what is self defense and what is aggression my belief is turf is certainly a large factor and crass terms such as pussy the realm of ignorance as to what real destruction is.
I’m afraid now I think there will be radical change and much suffering in the world. I’m afraid this belief has led me to be very frank. No one I know shares my belief with the deep conviction I have. Those that know me a love me tolerate it but really don’t believe. Many have just told me STFU. I Experia lot of sadness that there is no cooperation in the world. Aggression after aggression is committed. Really I have no one to communicate with in sharing the feelings I am experiencing. Above all I can’t believe the paths that are being chosen. They seem totally devoid of sanity. So I have returned to the forum. I am trying to keep my commits in line with normality out of respect for Gail. I’m afraid I am not doing a very good job. Often I express my incredulity with sarcasm and humor borne out of pain at the actions being taken. I hope this is not a burden on the community.
I think really bad times are coming. I am committed to compassion but I also committed a long time ago to never be a victim.i have known a lot of victims. They seem to appear in my life. I have not found unity in between these two beliefs. I know what I will do if I have to and that creates great dissonance with me. Inmy youth improved to myself I could be unbelievably cold. At times I even enjoyed it. I don’t want to return to that but it is there. That dissonance is something I have to live with. I had hoped to go to my grave without experiencing the conclusion of what I will become or perhaps the proving of what I am now. I find it very difficult to prepare for the times coming. I believe that peoples character is demonstrated in their actions. I have done my very best and are ok with my actions and who I am. I have helped a fair amount of people in various ways. I’ve given quite a bit in various ways over the years. Thousands of hours and dollars. I dont want to lose that. I will not be victim. I will lose that rather than be a victim. I know that. I’m not scared of that. I’m scared of what I will become. I had hoped compassion would be my legacy. It seems that is not my fate.you see the switch is still there. I can turn off compassion. The switch is there because I kept it there. That reflects on my character. If I was decent I would have let that switch go. I didn’t. If my actions have reflected compassion that is real part of me but I have kept that switch that I created so long ago. It was totally appropriate for the environment I was in. I kept it. That’s dissonance.
My crassness was just my crass ass channeling Nietzchean nihilism, wasn’t my take on China. My take on China is that China is onboard with the DA out of necessity just like everyone else.
Thanks very much for all the personal reflections, may favorite kind of content and it’s uncommon. If you could see the DA then maybe it might alleviate some of that sadness you have at the lack of cooperation. Or maybe it would since the cooperation still entails a lot of violence, but that’s Collapse for you. Hope you didn’t feel like you needed to get personal so that I or anyone else didn’t think your Will To Power view was a reflection of you; that never occurred to me.
Glad to hear that you have a switch and can use it, however ambivalently. Like Gail said, values change with circumstances, so maybe the level of ambivalence will too. If the switch that turns on the coldness has been justifiably flipped, then as I see it that’s nothing to feel ambivalent about once we’re back in nice guy mode again. That’s life. Unjustifiable coldness in youth, OTOH, is a learning experience. But hopefully guys like us don’t have to flip that switch too often where we’re headed, because those can be dangerous situations. When I fully came to terms with Collapse 18 years ago, I made myself the promise that I’d never let anybody take advantage of me ever again, even in minor ways. Not that I’d had a particular problem with that previously but I recognized that if I didn’t cultivate a habit of not giving anyone an inch of selfishness — and therefore becoming attuned to that inclination in people — then that could mean serious trouble.
Glad you’re back. I don’t remember your writing from 2021 which I think is the year I started commenting here during my first stint here before I went walkabout. So we must have just missed each other. Even if it was under another handle I would have remembered given the high quality, and funny too. Can’t see why you’d be a burden except to the TLDR people bemoaning your word count. Rest assured I’m the wretched burden around here…and I never give it a second thought.
Jackson Warne, the son of cricket icon Shane Warne, has attributed his father’s fatal heart attack in 2022 to Covid-19 vaccinations he claims were mandatory for sports professionals.
The 26-year-old expressed his conviction the jabs played a role in his father’s death.
He said: “I definitely think that it was involved. I don’t even think saying that is controversial anymore.
“Even if dad had underlying health issues, I think this brought it straight to the surface.”
“My first impression, as soon as I hung up the phone, I instantly blamed the government. I instantly blamed Covid and the vaccine.’
The Australian cricket legend passed away at the age of 52 during a holiday with friends on the Thai island of Koh Samui.
https://www.gbnews.com/sport/shane-warnes-son-blames-forced-covid-vaccine-for-death-of-cricket-icon
“It’s over. The system has collapsed. And almost everyone is walking around as if everything is normal. It’s not. There’s nothing normal about any of this.”
-Prof Zenkus
https://x.com/anthonyzenkus/status/2043683249218535744
I agree that enough changes have taken place that it is clear that the system is headed toward collapse. The system was already headed toward collapse. How quickly this collapse will take place is not clear.
I expect that how rapidly collapse will hit will vary from place to place. Countries that import oil, fertilizer, of LNG to sustain their industries can be expected to be especially hard hit, early on. Also countries that depend on jet fuel to support long-distance tourism will do poorly. In fact, island countries in general will tend to do poorly because of the quantity of long-distance imported goods required.
Hawaii will be hit hard.
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/trump-jesus-post-truth-social-backlash
It’s like Trump is purposely trying to destroy the Republican Party!
I agree that the situation is bizarre. Trump seems to think he is under Divine orders to win this war. He seems to have delusions of grandeur.
If Trump fails, the Evangelical Christians supporting this approach will find their movement losing supporters. Israel could end up collapsing, as well. This would make major groups unhappy.
This is excellent evidence of how deeply little c conservative and cautious the Hand is. Trump theatrically alienating himself from Owens, Carlson, and Kelly the other day left only the Evangelicals under the MAGA banner. If you’re going to manufacture a military coup in the United States of America…. you cannot be fucking around with unintended consequences. No stampedes allowed. But, still, I was assuming yesterday that the Hand wouldn’t worry about the Evangelicals because I thought that the Hand might be wanting to humble them because of their Zionism. But, no, the Hand is wiser than that. Hand doesn’t need to pull rank on any common men because the Hand or the Hand’s predecessor Elites molded them all in the first place. Hand needs reactionary unanimity.
Now Trump has nobody. Absolutely nobody. It’s go time pending the upcoming military theatrics.
And there are weeks when decades happen.
We will see what happens in upcoming weeks.
As I see it now, what Trump has in common with Owens, Carlson, Kelly, et. al is that they are all scripted actors—even Jordan bloody Peterson. We the audience are encouraged to view them as free agents and to remain oblivious to the reality that they are engaged in performance art.
What you, Reante, call the Hand is very appropriately named because the Hand is producing, directing and choreographing the play, just like the hidden hand of a puppeteer How far the puppet theater extends internationally is anybody’s guess, but in the West it surely must be very extensive indeed.
As we watch the tragedy of King Lear or Julius Caesar unfold scene by scene on the stage, we suspend our critical judgement temporarily and allow ourselves to be drawn into the proceedings, as if we were observing something real or genuine in the actual world rather than a theatrical performance.
A similar thing happens when consuming today’s news and opinion. The news anchors, reporters, and podcasters who fill the pages of our newspapers and our YouTube feeds, gossiping about the goings on of the great, the famous and mighty, invite their audiences to lower our intellectual guard, effectively suggesting: “And let us, ciphers to this great account, On your imaginary forces work.”
This is how what Roger Waters called “The Soap-opera States” is run—an elaborate fiction with a vast cast of characters (mostly played by scripted actors)—performs in front of the audience while the real business is running the country and the world goes on behind the scenes.
Will somebody tell Candice that it doesn’t matter in the slightest, apart to those who enjoy salacious gossip, whether Madame Macron is a woman or a man?
In keeping with this view of how things run in our social media soap opera, I would like to present the prologue from one of Shakespeare’s “histories”, Henry V Part 1, a play I studied at school, and one that is well embedded in my memory as our teacher generously took the class to the Aldwich theatre to watch it and even more generously brought us all a half pint of lager in the bar during the interval:
O, for a muse of fire that would ascend
The brightest heaven of invention!
A kingdom for a stage, princes to act,
And monarchs to behold the swelling scene!
Then should the warlike Harry, like himself,
Assume the port of Mars, and at his heels,
Leashed in like hounds, should famine, sword, and
fire
Crouch for employment. But pardon, gentles all,
The flat unraisèd spirits that hath dared
On this unworthy scaffold to bring forth
So great an object. Can this cockpit hold
The vasty fields of France? Or may we cram
Within this wooden O the very casques
That did affright the air at Agincourt?
O pardon, since a crookèd figure may
Attest in little place a million,
And let us, ciphers to this great account,
On your imaginary forces work.
Suppose within the girdle of these walls
Are now confined two mighty monarchies,
Whose high uprearèd and abutting fronts
The perilous narrow ocean parts asunder.
Piece out our imperfections with your thoughts.
Into a thousand parts divide one man,
And make imaginary puissance.
Think, when we talk of horses, that you see them
Printing their proud hoofs i’ th’ receiving earth,
For ’tis your thoughts that now must deck our
kings,
Carry them here and there, jumping o’er times,
Turning th’ accomplishment of many years
Into an hourglass; for the which supply,
Admit me chorus to this history,
Who, prologue-like, your humble patience pray
Gently to hear, kindly to judge our play.
Note: “This cockpit” and “this wooden O” refer to the Globe Theatre. They describe the round or polygonal shape of the wooden Elizabethan theater where the play was performed. These terms are used to highlight the contrast between the small, physical stage and the grand scale of the historical events.
Shakespearian English is much easier on the modern ear than it is on the modern eye. So I recommend you give it a listen. Also, this version of the play begins with a drone’s eye view of Elizabethan London. Gail may want to have a look at this to compare it with the cityscape she will be confronted with at the end of her upcoming tour of the British Isles.
Shakespeare was the Man. Mr. Meta.
A bevy of actors under one arrangement or another, or none. Yeah who knows how far it extends, but it does take a village to raise the barnyard animals as FE calls us. Hand has to create villages in the Machine because of the Dunbar Number.
Natalie Merchant is one of my all-time favorites. It’s kind of a shame to post her most famous song but it’s topical.
“Well I’ve walked these streets
A virtual stage
It seemed to me
Makeup on their faces
Actors took their places next to me”
https://youtu.be/4pOP4mPoMVQ
Thank you sincerely for sharing this one. For some reason, I’ve missed out on Natalie Merchant all these years, and I’ve never heard Carnival before. Obviously, I don’t get out enough.
However, I didn’t have to “get into” this song in order to be thoroughly captivated by it, which is amazing. Natalie’s deep soulful voice and Jennifer Turner’s screaming and equally soulful guitar sound like they were made for each other. Jen really makes that instrument come alive.
I’m really impressed, and as I’ve earmarked a budget to buy a few new CDs before my stash of yen evaporates, I am putting Tigerlily at the top of my list. And maybe I’ll check out a few more of Natalie’s albums. She has an extensive catalogue.
I’m also pleased that I can still occasionally respond positively to what for me is “new music.” Not quite as jaded as I thought I was.
Great Tim! She’s a real one. Glorious voice. 90s Joan Baez kinda maybe. Jen Turner great too yes. Tigerlily and Ophelia albums are both the bomb. Don’t know her newer albums but I figure I’ll listen to them now at work. It was dog who made me think of her when he mentioned civilizational honey; reminded me of a lyric from her song “San Andreas Fault.”
Tim thought I’d better leave you this Jen Turner performance too so you don’t miss it. From the same show I believe. You have to listen all the way through to the end or not at all. No need to reply!
https://youtu.be/HYF6pxlif5E
I’m leaning more towards a form of Kayfabe or performative behavior to distract the public from a plotted geological (volcano or net energy cliff) or celestial (mini-ice age or comet impact) while the world is restructured in short order. The epicenter of the event looks like Europe and/or the Mediterranean region possibly Campe Flegrei, WWW3 or Olduvai Theory.
If you meant it seriously, [ mini-ice age ] was a hot topic few years ago around PO forums. Now-ish, that would be really something, e.g. EU is now over-flowed with unsold food as CHN’s import embargo has not been lifted.
Yes, good for consumers, we are all gorging as much as possible on pre-pre inflationary prices ( at least for grains and milk, some not all meat ), but it’s ruinous for the agrobiz mid-term, long-term.
In case of incoming mini ice age ( in <1-2decades ) this shift towards way less food ( aka almost real famine level ) across Europe would be truly shocking turn of events.
Instead of Campe Flegrei(which I believe is playing around at the moment), I thought US eyes would be on Cumbre Vieja(east coast eyes at least). I think it’s been quite since 2021, but that might have just been a burb, before the real spew.
Readers may find this interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dulf-iP-gxo
Also this is 9 years old but note some of the outcomes near the end of the presentation (50 min). It could cascade quick. Thanks Gail,
David is outstanding . The man who coined the term SSF — Synchronized System Failure .
I met David once at a conference in Europe, and of course, I have read his well known writings. He explains the cascading nature of collapse well.
I caught his talk at 52:40…very good about collective cooperation and cultural beliefs that is just made up and can go away very quickly…
Thank you, very good discussion, especially at this time..he talks about fuel blockades in Britain too…
I had earlier posted on the multiplier effect of lost oil ptoduction . Kurt Cobb takes it up in his latest post .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2026/04/why-most-economists-vastly.html#more
This is a very fine post by Kurt Cobb. Economists do not understand that the tiny cost of energy supplies vastly understates the damage that their loss causes to the economy.
As I keep saying, losing energy supply is analogous to losing part of our food supply. We would first lose weight. The loss of food would make us hungry and crabby. But if it is sufficient, it would lead to the demise of the current economy.
just finished watching part of this interview with Trump and some Fox News anchor about the blockade trump’s words were all on nothing what does this mean this simply means they are forcing the agenda of pushing electric cars to the public so expect a complete shutdown of the Hormuz strait with no petrol for your car how are you going to get to work if you live far away.
I think this is more than “pushing electric cars “ this will change things permanently. We have built a complicated just in time system
Well, for one segment, trucking supposedly swallows ~20% of US diesel consumption. This has been solved now. The new factory for 50k trucks per year is opening now (2026), plus fast speed charger dedicated only to trucks all over major transport hubs, ~60x places across US not sure how many indiv plugs at each, but surely sized correctly. The savings for operators are huge it starts to pay second year of operation..
Plus as reported regularly here, petrol-hybrids completely erased diesel engines from say bellow 2.5L displacement, so not only econoboxes but all SUVs (incl. 3.5t towing) don’t need diesel anymore..
Plus ( yes ~expensive still > $40-50k) plugin hybrids now finally start at 20kWh batt packs minimum – that’s the threshold in which max savings start to occur as near/city-urban traffic d/d and y/y goes without oil then..
So, the question remains which forcing will be faster: oil wars and ~natural depletion or manuf. scale-up and adoption of EVs in all these segments.. Obviously interruptions from world trade shrinkage could derail it way sooner as well..
Bravo
Yeah right how many of these electric trucks are on the road right now? Only 60 charge locations? Does not sound like a reasonable plan. The average consumer can barely pay its credit card bill but loan go out and buy brand new cars ….. pipe dream
I see a lot of electric delivery vans, operating from a central hub. But big, heavy semi-trucks are not going electric, any time soon, IMO.
That new factory ( now ready ) for production volume of 50.000 semi-trucks per year doesn’t exist then ?
I wouldn’t count on the factory, or the availability of the materials to make the trucks and the batteries. I will believe it when I see it. Also, buyers willing to pay the higher cost of these semi-trucks.
3M registered semi-trucks in the US..
Yes, 50k copies per year is not the fastest replacement as of now..
These trucks are/were driving around the US/world for a decade in testing before the mass production commencing ~today. CHN/EUR competitors the same..
Yes, materials – supply lines are to be questioned, I guess TSLA is still importing ( some ) cathodes from Korea..
As explained numerous times already, the e-truck pays out quicker ( even for self employed driver-operator ) than the diesel version because of lower running costs ( today NOT in 2077 )..
Well, I can deal with you skipping my posts over yrs here announcing these trends, but if you don’t even follow the msm news and general decades / years brewing industry trends that’s kind of disturbing on such a forum hah..
Again, this is exactly about semi-trucks (class 8) hauling 15-22.5 tons of cargo, yes there is even heavier class up in the US but that’s not the key segment. Besides US is the outlier as in most countries this is done by ( larger share of ) rail anyway.
Nathanial> well, I simply comment on today’s reality that manufs kicked out diesels ( and larger strictly gasoline only engines ) out of their production for certain engine displacement segments. If people don’t like it then they won’t drive new anymore ( as old clunkers last ) or have to settle for that ~max 2Litre + hybrid option. Already happened in Asia, Europe, now it’s ongoing process in the US as well..
To reiterate, torque boosted hybrids are replacing – the former bulk of even entry level-segment manufactured cars in the world. Simply [ you can’t order ] the old stuff anymore at the dealer, capiche ? The posh upgrade ( plug-in hybrids ) is optional upper level, for now..
I see what you mean. I found this article from 2024.
https://electrifynews.com/news/work-evs/u-s-market-for-heavy-duty-electric-freight-trucks-growing-fast-in-2024/
It says, “Heavy-duty trucks occupy truck class 7 (26,001–33,000 lbs) and class 8 (33,001–80,000 lbs and over). ”
I presume these trucks need their own charging stations. There are a lot of things that could go wrong with the system. Too much stealing of copper from the charging stations is one of them.
That’s indeed what said previously, they on purpose deployed dense network of fast chargers across the country. The idea they can’t hire goons securing the perimeter and cables lolz ( or just upped security-policing ) for mere 60s sites in such billionatic biz project with state security importance is not realistic though..
For layman’s upto date info just watch YT: Jay Leno’s as he drives TSLA production 300-500mi semi-truck or something of that title..
it’s few weeks old..
range of Tesla semitruck 500 miles
area of N America in square miles = 9.54 million
equilateral triangle of sides = 500 miles, area = 108253 miles
9.54/0.108253=88.126
if NAmerica was a nice circle then 88 charging stations would cover it.
redistricting and gerrymandering will be fun.
who wants states and provinces anyway?
Yes, great approach that’s certainly one way they also had to model it initially.
I’m not sure in which recent interview it appeared but they are clearly aiming for less than 500mi range in terms of fast charger availability aka denser radius just for precautionary reasons. Or perhaps also selling some discounted 350mi range option version of the truck as well.. It will vary regionally a bit, hills, faster / slower highways ( quality layer vs ~potholes ), ..
You haven’t explained who is going to pay for the new semi evs. If the government prints money to pay for them, the result will cause prices to rise because production will not rise quickly enough to meet demand. If businesses pay for it, they will take out more expensive loans or leases. If the supply of electricity does not rise, these electric trucks will put more strain on the grids and higher electricity rates will discourage adoption. Some businesses will choose to go out of business than lose money on evs.
“Simply [ you can’t order ] the old stuff anymore at the dealer, capiche ?”
You can be smug and snarky about green energy mandates all you want but none of that will make them work. Giving people no other options is not going to make green energy viable. It hasn’t worked anywhere on Earth or in space, to date.
Unfortunately. I agree with you. The Northwest part of the US, where they currently in use, has been historically well supplied with hydroelectric. This has kept its price low.
California depends on electricity, imported from the Northwest, to keep its electricity going at not too exorbitant a price. If more electric trucks are used in the Northwest, there will be less electricity to export to California. California will be even worse off than it is now, in trying to keep its economy going, without much oil supply either.
This yootoob short describes a second hand account of the atmosphere around the white house right now. Sounds about right just before a coup:
https://youtube.com/shorts/w3xzI_bgujY
It seems to be quite believable. It is hard to find people who truly support the actions that Trump is taking now.
I watched a video with an short clip of the Prime Minister of Japan with him saying one has to be careful in talking to Trump because he does not like to be told he is wrong but one needs to frame it in a way to present other options to give a way from him to decide otherwise.
Interesting.
Bureaucratic statements like that just feed into the myth that the public bureaucrats run the world. Circles see that bureaucrats don’t run the world. Even if I was a Square I would see that at this late stage in the King Lear show, Trump would have had generals resigning and even been impeached and removed from office for any number of actions. The worst thing that can happen to anyone stepping up to Trump is that they get fired, yet no one has done it. Even if I was a Circle who could not see the Hand and the DA, Trump would be a dead man by now because this Iran situation is an existential threat to the MIC itself.
Any peak oil systems theorist who is trying to process current events without the existence of the Hand has set really low standards for their systems theory by leaving out the human component of the systems theory and relying purely on materialistic conceits. That’s right – systems materialism operating within a metaphysical cultural context is a.conceit. It’s professional autism.
It’s certainly very odd. All fail safes seem to be disabled. It’s like a guy with a gambling addiction with your savings account pin. If nothing else it spells the end of a leader given certain power vs the bureaucrats. Along with the sin of national identity. Trump has turned out to be the hands wet dream and he probably always was. After all they made Trump with negative publicity. The survival mechanisms that should legally remove Trump as a clear and present danger will be applied to punish the people for daring to elect him instead. Trump was supposed to represent respect for the common man not the hand but to my mind he was and is the hands greatest asset via manufactured blowback.
If you go through past history ( recent or more distant ) the so-called leaders were almost always navigating very thin line amongst the key stake holders ( plutocrats ) of the day wielding much more influence over the situation, in other words the degree of freedom of said leader was very limited.
These applied pressures were often not for consumption in public domain, although at crucial points something got out eventually about the key hidden players e.g. throughout Napoleonic Wars, WWII, or not long ago how we learned the way USSR was made to re-structure under the wise globo-guidance hand ( oops collapse sorry about that ) etc.
dog’s first reply to reante at long last and it’s a quality one.
The nested realities of the yin and the yang is at play regarding the Hand’s designs on the common man. Trump may be the Hand’s elitist pawn only posing as populist, but the purpose of that theatrical trickery is to create the cultural underpinnings of a truly populist reactionary world political theater (meaning the national socialisms that emerge from the Global Peace Accords that themselves mercifully end this here Big Nuclear Scare) that’s genuinely supportive of the common man during the hardest of times. Because that strategy is what is obviously in the self-interest of the Hand itself and the associated civilizational Elites who put their trust in the Hand. If you’re running the managed Collapse of a nuclear civilization, you’re not about to make it harder on yourself than you need to.
Yes, we debated it numerous time already. The world burned like ~70% of cold war missile tip stockpiles for steam-electricity during past two-three decades already. So, today’s remaining stock could be lowered further still..
And even of the tiny left-overs only 1/3 is in operational mode.
“The worst thing that can happen to anyone stepping up to Trump is that they get fired, yet no one has done it.”
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2026/0404/iran-war-hegseth-army-general-fired
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-pete-hegseth-pushes-out-army-chief-of-staff-general-randy-george-as-iran-war-rages/
Trump has the worldview of a child. America is allowing a child to set its foreign policy. All possible opposition is controlled one way or the other by Israel. We must hope that Russia and China are not controlled by Israel.
I hope the Chinese intelligence agencies are learning to “decapitate” the enemy as well as the zionists.
I remember when they said that George W. Bush had the worldview of a child. More accurately, they said he had a black and white view of the world.
This world view is devoid of nuance and is reductionist according to THEIR worldview.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_are_either_with_us,_or_against_us
Anyways, polarization is nothing new. When politicians want people to follow them they all adopt a “black and white” worldview.
Most countries like Russia and China are pro-S metic. They don’t want to be in Iran’s position.
i was telling everybody that in 2015/16
The ‘tail’ doesn’t wag the ‘dog’?
“To retain its military power and reserve currency the US needs leverage to force China to provide it with rare earth minerals, and the US intends to use Iran’s oil as that leverage.“?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/05/cactus-view-of-the-iran-war/
Putin Puppet Orban has been flushed! Their newly elected pro-Brussels leadership will fix all the problems he created. First step, immigration policy!
These poor fools …
Agreed. Like lambs to the slaughter.
You can’t fix stupid.
The young brainwashed Ursulanski generations suddenly came to the voting booth en masse, btw. that new PM guy just few years ago wanted these CHN factories Orban brought there to get lost.. hah.
You can’t fix stupid. 🙂
Orban was defeated at a past election and returned to office within one or two terms. Besides, he’s in his early 60s; Trump is nearly 80.
Too bad. Sometimes if the company you keep is despicable you get 86 ed.even if otherwise you have admirable qualities. The yutes (via my cousin Vinny) somehow got this one right via tik Tok. I’m glad I only have equally despicable choices.
This is going to be a unrecoverable pendulum swing. Pendulum will break swing.
Set up.
Half the reasons are not just good but undeniable
They all go mad so what does it matter. A few too many.. pina coladas. Yeah that’s it. Something is extremely unhealthy with coconuts.
I hope my neighbors don’t have any good boomer recipes but I figure they do.tik Tok yah know.
Maybe it was in significant measure a referendum on King Lear’s amazing ability to outdo Let’s Go Brandon.
The US is happy to contribute tens of millions of low IQ Americans to Hungary.
There will be a big war in Europe for sure now.
Do you really believe that and do you mean with Russia? I just don’t know how they can have a big war … it’s not something I’ve studied carefully, but I don’t think they have the societal cohesion or industry required to do even a half-decent job of it. My base case assumption is that they will devolve into chaos, riots, hunger. Maybe they could war among themselves with mostly small arms.
You typed my hope. But the US will provide arms and oil and gas. Probably all the Navy will fight Iran and China, and the Army will fight Russia. China and Russia should also consider bombing US weapon factories not just refineries and large transformers. Look at the Baltimore bridge, it is gone until (they say) 2030. That might as well be forever.
There is no conventional way out for the USA. We don’t have the manufacturing to supply Europe even if we want to and a draft would be required, but it is unthinkable in the USA. No one will show up at the command of these pedos, especially when there’s a strong awareness that their policies over the last decades caused the many problems at home.
The elite’s only hope is AI plus robots or some next-gen strategy like biologic or cyber warfare or new physics. A long shot. The only question in my mind is whether they’re dumb enough to even try to start a serious conventional war. We’re running out of capabilities after only a few weeks, so I think we can rule out large-scale war.
Two more OFWers who think that they might be dead within a year, and they’re not necessarily wrong depending on their situations. Hand is watching closely.
for the record, Reante, I think the euro war will be relatively slow developing. After 2028. Next year I expect to be fine,
Appreciate you tolerating my mischief drb.
Pandemics are much cheaper than wars.
There will be no war . Europe does not have the resources , manpower , weapons , co-ordination etc . Last year war exercises by NATO turned out to be flop . Estonian bridges could not support German heavy armaments and the Polish soldiers could not understand what their British commanders instructed . There is no joint command ,all is patchwork held together by band aid and glue . French ammo has instruction sheet in french and German ammo in german . How is the Hungarian supposed to read that . Relax . Oh yes , lot of noise by VDL and Rutte .
Good points!
What happens if or when we have a recession, can they bail us out again? I think the problem in Europe is not going to be the high price of jet fuel for tourist. I think the problem is going to be scarcity of jet fuel for tourist. I don’t think they will turn tourist away unless there are lockdowns maybe also I don’t think tourist will be very popular in Europe this year.
If I make it to Great Britain in late May and early June, I will find out. I am sort of worried about the situation. Just canceling on my part won’t provide much money back. So I am waiting for Viking to cancel.
Viking is very good my sister goes with Viking I would keep the tickets Gail they are trying to scare using fear tactics just like they did with covid pandemic it’s up to you if you choose to listen to them.
Bring a little bit of gold and silver and some Yuan and enjoy the low crowding vacation. You and your husband are smart and capable. The Europeans are not out for blood. If they are it is Russian blood.
“If I make it to Great Britain in late May and early June… I am sort of worried about the situation.”
Wow. It looks like Gail is wanting to make Britain “Great” again. Starmer, watch out! She could be looking to depose you and become Prime Minister. We all know that Gail is a Trump supporter. Will she turn us into the 51st state?
I tend to support whichever leader the self-organizing system has given us. In that sense, I am a Trump supporter. But the system seems to be headed toward collapse, and that is worrisome.
I see that as Gail’s way of saying that the self-organizing Hand put Trump in office because the Hand has a plan and who are we to question the Hand which is a higher civilizational power than ourselves. In that sense, Gail supports the Hand that supports Trump. As do I, even though my goal is to be the most subversive writer on the internet. Because the truth is the truth, and the greatest truth teller is the most subversive teller of all.
Welcome to the Humble Path.
Of course, things could change as we go along. The self-organizing Hand may dictate replacing Trump.
politicians do have have a long history of being expendable once their purpose has been served.
Gail, my wife and I are scheduled to fly to Prague May 15, returning from Budapest end of May. It is up in the air and perhaps risky if we even can still go. Our one risk reduction is we have good friends in Austria, family in Germany, London and northwest UK. We should be able to get and stay somewhere for a while if we get stuck over there.
Abrupt weather change over Europe within past week, from occasional last snow and cold-icy nights now suddenly changed into warmer southern winds +carrying *red dust ( Sahara ) from NW Africa..
Good luck on your travels.
—
* sometimes they ground air flights for few days because of this phenomenon ( grinds engine vanes ) but it’s not that severe at the moment..
there is still jet fuel in the world but only a lower percentage of it so you could probably still travel to Europe the only thing I suggest is if you don’t feel more comfortable travel in groups like tours. there is still oil flowing through Hormuz sanctioned oil using the dark fleet carries on. that is why Nathaniel I am of the opinion that the great reset is simply the world running as business as usual lite BAU lite in a year’s time we shall see how everything is changed I believe we shall havetent cities everywherebecause the reduced flows of oil will be leading to inflationary effects which in turn will be leading to deflationary effects up and down like a yo yo in other words the world will limp along
Eventually a new economy will arise from the ashes.fueled by the cheap Labor available from displaced workers who are being replaced by AI.
It is a group tour. Travel both directions is on Delta (but paid for through Viking). Delta has its own refinery, in the US. So that is as good protection as I can get.
Delta could find out that the business model of selling airline tickets and not letting most buyers of airline tickets fly is more profitable than the business model they have now.
It’s not just the oil that is the problem; it is the whole supply chain that is the problem and when things lock up wierd machinations happen. Take one thing out and everything falls apart. That being said you will probably be ok in England but who knows if the strait stays closed it could get crazy. Think Covid , 9/11, and 2008 rolled into one. A lot of people on Quark website are discussing how to get out of Europe and worried that they are running out of time
That’s what they get for willfully ignoring the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. Not that I believe in carpetbagging, which is for people who lack character because it’s just running away from your perceived problems instead of rising to the occasion.
You can run from Collapse but you can’t hide from it.
9/11 mysteriously did not effect the supply chain. George W. Bush famously told citizens eager to help their country shortly after 9/11 to go shopping.
The Europeans and their supporters are largely responsible for the lack of oil. Replacing fossil fuel usage with renewable energy and starting a war with their largest supplier of oil are major reasons for why Europeans on Quark want to get out of Europe. Wherever they go, they will advocate for the same things…war with a country the local people import their oil from and mandatory renewable energy use.
Trump and co….have an incentive to keep the strait closed because keeps it closed sabotages the world economy…and that means more oil for themselves…this in line with the thinking behind the tariffs Trump proposed imo…sabotage. If that is the case we are truly living in desperate times…
It could just be they are taking advantage of the shrinking window of opportunity to finish off iran before it becomes impossible to do so due to demographic changes and less oil availability.
AI doesn’t exist. What we have is probably a shrinking knowledge economy/service economy. Someone has remarked that many of the jobs being automated were not very high paying, just more mid-skill office jobs that were disappearing before A.I. became a buzzword. What looks like rising productivity and automation may just be declining profits driving companies to do more with less. I remember someone saying that innovation is a stress response to a difficult situation, which is vaguely related to a more popular saying that ” necessity is the mother of invention”. A.I. may be a stress response by…developed countries to a difficult situation adopted out of necessity. What the difficult situation is, that forces organizations to start using something that does not exist, I can’t say.
An excellent post by Quark . This is the end of the line . Yes KSA is sending oil via the Yanbu line but what about helium , sulphuric acid , urea etc . Missing the woods for the trees .
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/nada-volvera-a-ser-igual
He seems to think that we are still at a stage that things can be reversed; I am not sure. We still have a long way to go and I think the damage has been done. At the very least a recession is on order; not sure what that would look like. Add 20 trillion dollars to the system? Who would buy the increased debt? I know all rules will be thrown out the door as they have already with the fake negotiations. I see a more simple time ahead where middle class can’t fly all over the world. Not sure what this is going to do to European tourists this summer
In translation, Quark says:
Should a monetary-financial crisis occur, investment levels will contract, resulting in a decline in the extraction of copper (as well as other minerals and metals). Furthermore, a reduction in oil production—or in the supply of refined diesel—would likewise curtail the extraction of resources of all kinds. Indeed, this is what we would term “degrowth”: a scenario in which this reduction—rather than being a one-off anomaly during a crisis year—becomes a systemic reality driven by diminishing energy fuel production.
As we can observe, the collapse—or destruction—of the fiat currency system inevitably triggers a contraction in investment, as the era of “free money” draws to a close. And all of this is inextricably linked to the slowdown in economic growth resulting from the decline in oil and gas extraction.
The notion that “nothing will ever be the same again”—a sentiment fueled by the conflict in the Gulf—carries repercussions that accelerate a process of degrowth. This process is driven by a confluence of factors: the financial crisis (stemming from excessive debt) and the decline in global oil production (attributable to reserve depletion and the failure to replenish those reserves due to a dearth of new discoveries).
The onset of this systemic breakdown is not yet irreversible; however, with each passing day, the odds of averting this crisis diminish, and we are now perilously close to crossing the point of no return.
I would argue that a monetary-financial crisis need not occur, to start bringing the economy down. In fact, it seems to me that the cutback in availability of some necessary supplies is sufficient to push the economy down. If countries start discouraging tourism, this will tend to send the world economy down. In fact, even high prices of jet fuel and diesel fuel will send tourism down.
I think we are past the point of no return, but I don’t think most readers are willing to hear this message. I think that the most favorable forecast that we can give to readers is that a downturn is ahead, but some places and some occupations will do better than others. There will still be a place for leaders. Flexibility will be an advantage going forward.
We must understand the ” butterfly effect ” .
” The butterfly effect is coined from a metaphor of a butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo, and consequently causing a large tornado strike in Tennessee. Meteorologist Edward Lorenz invented the phrase “butterfly effect” after discovering in the 1960s that a minor, butterfly-scale adjustments to the starting point of his computer weather models resulted in everything, from bright skies to severe storms, with no means of knowing what would happen ahead of time.”
We are helpless .
STFU . DJT .
JUST IN – UK says it will not be involved in U.S. blockade of the Hormuz Strait, and is currently “urgently working with France and other partners to put together a wide coalition to protect the freedom of navigation.” — Sky
Blockading a maritime chokepoint that you simultaneously claim you don’t need, and claim is open, is, shall we say, an interesting manoeuvre . 🤣
First sanctions are lifted off of Iran’s oil to allow more supply to the market, and now a naval blockade that would take supply out and risk proxy attacks in the Red Sea. How are things going to get better ?!
Like i said , moron .
I agree. The world definitely needs the oil.
the Hand’s “maybe if I put my leg up on yours” parody
Whut? UK will come around. Anti smuggling operations are critical to freedom of navigation. All smugglers must face justice equally regardless of nationality.
Zerohedge keeps giving updates to what is happening in the area. These updates are not behind a paywall.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/uae-oil-chief-warns-world-cant-allow-hormuz-closure-2-tankers-u-turn-and-us-emerges-last
Recent information claims:
CENTCOM Says Blockade Will Begin Monday Morning at 1000ET
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, according to a statement on X.
CENTCOM provided some further clarification in regard who will be blocked, in accordance with President Trump’s earlier proclamation.
Specifically, they are only (and impartially) blocking any vessel leaving or entering an Iranian port…
The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
But, vessels from non-Iranian ports are free to transit the Strait
CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
Now the fun begins.
Iran Says It Won’t Allow Blockade Of Hormuz Strait, But Room For Diplomacy Remains
As the US failed to open the Strait of Hormuz, it is also “doomed to fail in a naval blockade,” Iran’s military adviser to the supreme leader, Mohsen Rezaee, said in a post on X.
Iran’s armed forces “will not allow America to do so and have great untapped leverage to counter it,” he adds.
“Iran is not a place to be surrounded by tweets and imaginary plans.”
Will a new much smaller second pocket of stranded tankers form like those trapped in the Gulf? Payed the Iran baksheesh to exit the strait but now can not leave the 1200 kilometer USN no go sea created by Iranian hypersonics? Talk about catch 22.
While I strongly suspect there is more than just a narcissist mind in events we witness it fits perfectly. To the narcissistic mind it’s not whether the strait is open or closed but that the power to make that decision is retained. There is no power to open the strait but the power to close it is almost as satisfying and much much easier. Basically decree backed by force does it. Force short of full and extensive nuclear weapon deployment can not open the strait. Even that is not 100 percent. It only takes one guy with a heavy FPV drone coming out of a burrow when radiation allows.
This new paradigm created by evolving inexpensive weapons technology and the reality of current events does not end even in the unlikely event state actors cease hostilities. The armed groups apposed to the IRGC regime are certainly taking note of the power threats to the strait hold. The sword has two edges. Iran can not guarantee safe passage either. The region has no shortage of well armed tribal groups with their own agenda. Can the strait be insulated from their area of operations by Iran? How about if you topple Iran then the strait is secure from things like surface sea drones in the hands of the groups in south Pakistan? Will Vance visit them? Sit down for a bit of chai? Talk about the game?
Be careful what you wish for.
The post war outcome like Libya would seem probable. Every indigenous group gets baksheesh from oil profits or the strait closes. But here it is not a shakedown of not just local oil production but the entire Gulf by any fool with a FPV or a improvised sea drone A super tanker is a rather large and very soft target. But even the situation in Libya represents a order of sorts.. if the oil infrastructure and desalination of the Gulf gets destroyed it will truly be mad max.
The use of force in the middle east has never created order only chaos. The reality of power held by control of the strait now is combined with the reality of inexpensive weapons technology. Strait security requires order. Force only creates chaos. This has been demonstrated in the middle east over and over again.
“The spice must flow”. In the fiction of Dune there was conflict but it was ordered. It is not just Paul who holds power to end the flow of spice in the region but any of the myriad groups with axes to grind. The order portrayed in dune is fiction The reality of force 8n the middle east is chaos. Dune was wrong. The spice does not have to flow. Industrial civilization does not have to continue.
ME has been an orderly place for the last 50 years. Dunno what ME you’re looking at. And that globalist order was forced upon it. Well, the carrot AND the stick.
The reality in the ME right now is orderly ‘chaos.’ The Export Land Model of Collapse is being systematically undermined by undermining domestic refining capacity while leaving the productive capacity of the inexpensive resources untouched.
I think you’re getting carried away by the idea that any old tribe can shut down the strait now. That simply not true. Apples to oranges. Any old tribe might be able to hit a tanker – once. But they’d knowingly be committing suicide, and for what? Why haven’t they been doing that already?
ORDER OUT OF ‘CHAOS’ is what this Big Nuclear Scare is all about.
This is hailed as a big step . The plant started construction in 2000 and after 26 years achieved critical status but is yet to go online and connect to the grid .
” This achievement is a long time in the making. The plant, based in the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, has been in development since 2000. It’s not yet clear when the plant will come online, but it is expected to generate 500 megawatts of carbon-free electricity. This will represent a major step toward India’s aim to achieve 100 gigawatts of capacity by 2047, a significant boost from today’s level of approximately 9 gigawatts. ”
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/indias-nuclear-bet-starting-pay
Wow ! And it only took 27 years to build it! No problem!
It depends, Chinese and Koreans build relatively fast ( inside / near their domain ), while US / EU installations get also prolonged chiefly for administrative and or protest obfuscation delay tactics etc.
Obviously, at the core of the bottleneck the key tech components can be build only in very few countries around the world ( the turbines for the steam circuit and its sub components ala control valves ) the rest is mostly general lump of metal, concrete and ~basic electronics ..
It’s the long tea breaks—something the Indians learned from the British.
Conversely, East Asians tend to work through the day without breaks apart from lunch. It can be very hard to get them to stop for a cup of tea and a biscuit.
Some people have adapted to live to work.
In the West, employers have trouble finding natives who actually want to work.
It is not really online yet. We don’t know how long that will take. Note that the only other commercial breeder is in Russia.
The article says,
India has reached a milestone in its nuclear energy program through its state-of-the-art fast breeder reactor, signalling a major step forward for the clean energy transition in the world’s most populous country. The country’s most advanced nuclear reactor reached criticality earlier this month, meaning that the nuclear chain reaction powering the plant is self-sustaining. This breakthrough will ultimately allow India to import far less uranium to power its nuclear program, and can be adapted to use domestic thorium reserves for fuel in a win-win for the subcontinent’s energy security and autonomy.
When the plant comes online fully, it will be only the second commercial breeder plant of its kind in the world. The other is in Russia. These plants could change the nuclear landscape completely, as they are capable of producing more fissile material (in essence, nuclear fuel) than they consume.
So how the blockade work? Blockade means ships want to pass through and the blockade stops the ships from passing through. So now SoH is closed, that means means US will shoot at ships that pass through SoH?
Unclear how this will work. The US Navy has to stay far away – they can’t get close or they will be sunk. So they can’t commandeer the ships by boarding, they can only destroy them, if that’s what they decide to do. Also, I imagine many of these ships will be Indian or Chinese flagged. Good luck with that.
But if I understand correctly a number of US ships transited the Straits. First and most important question is were they getting in or out. I suppose it is most logical if they were getting out. The Gulf is a small lake where getting sunk is unavoidable. If they were getting in the war will escalate fast.
No , there were never any ships that transited the Hormusz . Lies spread by US thru it’s mouthpiece Axios and Centcom . Empire of lies . When things get bad you have to lie — Juncker of EU
Best of luck DJT .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uss-boise-overhaul-collapses-after-800-million-spent-and-only-22-complete
The destroyers were there to get a downed pilot..
The carriers are 1200 km off but they sent two guided missile frigates ( not mine sweepers) to the strait and they were actively demining there with not a care in the world. Grabbing some rays too.
If you go to tasnimnews there is an article with a video. I can’t link, as I’m not allowed into various Iranian media at the moment. All blocked(happened in the last couple of hours and this is far from the first time), so it’s probably kicking off tonight.
Here’s a sensible Malaysian instead, putting their little neighbour with a big mouth, in his place.
https://keadilanrakyat.org/nurul-izzah-anwar/dr-vivian-balakrishnans-position-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-reflects-a-narrow-strategic-posture/
Chopper commando drop-in, that’s standard procedure performed by all mil./navies in the world, and US has done on several occasions this very year anyway. There are no armed escorts to oppose them on such tankers or bulk cargo ships.
Obviously, it does not change the elementary thing, then no ships dispatched with cargo ( and or insured ) into the region anyway.
Hence to me it also sounds as yet another pseudo-macho negotiating ( pressure – applied ) technique for the very next weeks or months ( incl. that CHN summit as you correctly stated ). The US seemingly holds the upper hand now as it is the last to be affected by lack of fuel vs. RoW situation.
And if ” W. allies ” came to complain, well you did not help us with the blockade in the first place, so though luck..
In summary, yes ~short term strategy bullying, just get another year of breathing space – another half a decade of imposed imperialism..
Also, it could be reversed this very evening or tomorrow morning, who knows these dayz, hah.
I don’t think so. They try this on a regular basis and they will get slaughtered / lured in.
Range of navy helicopter 500+ nmi..
They will try.
No , they won’t . Take it to the bank . We are witnessing the end of an empire . Who knew about what is happening today on March 1 ? 40 days . “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. —-Vladimir Lenin
P.S ; I was living in Budapest when the collapse of FSU happened . I know how fast it went after Orban’s speech on Hoszok Ter ( Victory square ) calling for the withdrawel of all Russian army .
Lets get real . They will need air cover etc etc . A retired navy admiral tells how this is BS .
Well, as posted above I consider it as negotiating tactic, they could attempt boarding 2-3x ships this way to make a point. Obviously, if something goes south – this will be further level of gross embarrassment.
In terms of [ HU ], it was an loose ally in the Soviet block anyway, at that time partially free-trade economy already vs some other more doctrinaire socialist block countries.
That can’t be compared to slowly ( yes abruptly in steps ) waning power of the US of global hegemonic status. When most of commodities are traded in non US currency, and US debt is no longer used as quasi saving mechanism, only then we can evaluate it as ( post ) collapse situation proper. We are not there yet by a long shot. The CHNs play it like in their silly universe, i.e. the US must fall down to them on a plate like ripe sour cheery and that’s 5-20yrs away at minimum..
Re Ravis admiral vid link. Avoiding the blockade refered to as “smuggling”. 🙂 🙂 :). Isn’t the bottom line insurance? Tehran says the strait is closed ships won’t move through without paper. USN says international waters are closed ships won’t move through without paper. Based on Venezuela violaters ships and cargo will be spoils of war sailed to USA ports the crude unloaded and the ship auctioned if ownership is unfriendly. The Persian crude would be welcomed for diesel in the USA I’m sure. Interchangeability of crude depends on demand for all products. It won’t happen. One gauntlet stopped the spice. Two will stop the leaks. What insurance issuer is going to issue in this environment? Who will pay the toll when it doesn’t get you free passage?
I wonder if the toll was doubled to $2 a barrel and given to Trump whether the spice would flow? Not a smuggler payment one and two. one toll in the strait the other in international waters? One big baksheesh shakedown now. Not tolls. Not tarrifs. Not fees. Baksheesh. Why? Baksheesh. That’s the beauty of backsheesh. The answer is the question .We need a baksheesh Lego video ASAP. 🙂
Re Ravi ” it will happen quick”
Could not agree more. People are talking. They got a supply chain lesson in 2020. All it takes is 5 percent buying two rolls of TP instead of one and shelves are empty. Limits of purchases coming real real soon. Corp is already preparing.
Another chance for the US to look amateurish. Another chance for TACO. Won’t add to US hegemony.
trust , your comment reminded me of Matt Simmons .
During the oil embargo of 1973 the demand for liquid fuel jumped by 2 mbpd overnight . Matt explained that this was due to change of behavior by motorists . He said there are two types of motorists 1. Who fills the tank in round figures say $ 30 or $ 40 at a time . These are the budgetry drivers . 2 . Drivers who will drive until the emergency light comes on . This driver will fill up the tank to the maximum at the pump .This is the non-budgetry driver .
During the embargo because of fear suddenly every motorists starting filling up the tank to the maximum and would top of his tank at the first oppurtunity irrespective of need . Result , all of a sudden all cars which were driving around with 1/4 or 1/2 tankfull became topped up 100% . Just this change in behavior pushed up the demand . Your example of the TP roll is good .
Ravi, thanks for bringing back that Simmons’ comment I remember it from the old-er PO dayz..
Yes, it’s true.
But history only rhymes.
At that time a car consumed ~2-3x more fuel vs today..
Also, the over-all affordability among general pop is much worse now, hence after initial panic spike, most people won’t be in position to pay elevated prices.. So, they don’t show up for work.
I guess this further understanding has been large part of the US govs aim at taking world’s oilz by force – because econ policy incentives ( scam-manipulation ) no longer have the necessary power to smooth things over domestically..
It will take only a minimum of enforcment assets. The word is out. “Smugglers” will lose cargo and ship just like Venezuela. Nice baksheesh scores for the Don. The Gulf is closed. Don plugged the leak and ended Irans baksheesh.two birds one stone. Irans baksheesh was a pittance. Dons is everything you got. No one will risk that. Oil to moon tomorrow. Everything else gets hammered by Thor.
China military expansion in the last decade both conventional and strategic is of a scale some regard as one of the great wonders of the world. It bears the emerging characteristics of Chinese projects long term integrated goals and technological and technological competence of a commensurate scale. The scope of this buildout is far too extensive to list all of its components. There is great analysis on you tube using open source satellite imagery. The strategic component is particularly of interest to residents of the USA but it appears the navel component is of immediate interest.
To a limited extent China fell into the carrier group manned aircraft paradigm. Largely they did not acknowledging the future of navel warfare is missile warfare. On top of their off the charts missile frigate production they have been retrofitting every scow that floats with standardized 24 cell VLS missile systems. IMO this is very realistic. Surface ship survivability will be poor in a modern navel engagement using hypersonics so the quantity and quality of the missiles are appropriate for investment not the platform.
The Chinese buildout extending into the south China sea has had the goal of force projection within 1000 kilometers or so of China shores. It has been methodical of a unprecedented scope. They take a rock outcropping build it up into a island with incredible amounts of rock until they can get a good airfield on it. Then they place various 4th and 5th generation fighter aircraft on it as well as missile supply depot for surface ships. Naturally much effort is put into anti submarine technology. As I mentioned methodical. Every new fire base is a piece of force projection into the south China sea not globally.
There is no fortress Europe. Fortress China is a reality.
Like Venezuela neither China or Russia have real capability to project force in the middle east in a significant way. Logistics are a barrier that is primary in global force projection. No sane commander would sail surface ships into the south China sea fortress with hostile intent. The blockade places the conflict in open ocean where the obsolete carrier group paradigm odds are better.
I think it goes without saying that the blockade is regarded as leverage in the scheduled meeting between Trump and XI. The effects of the closure of the strait will destroy the means by which people of the world sustain themselves. As the largest manufacturing and industrial nation China is hurt more than the financial nation the USA. Maybe. Thus the scope of the suffering contest is moved directly to China eliminating Irans selective bypass that also eliminated WW3.
The basis of this philosophy is that successful entities are more vulnerable because they have more to lose. That the people of the world need that oil to provide basic sustenance is of no consequence. The fragility of industrial civilization is either of no consequence or not understood. The other possibility that industrial civilizations ending is desired can not be eliminated as a motive.
As we see one aspect is the rapidly growing friendship between all Asian nations as they start to experience the catastrophic consequences of this leverage creation where they suffer economic collateral damage of the target.
Capitulate or industrial civilization gets it. It seems to be a popular philosophy. The means and scope are new but the philosophy is not..
As Ravi noted doing this at SOH is exponentially more efficient than a open sea blockade. The blockade is a action rooted in envy of a asset and capability but it is a extremely poor equivalent. IMO this wishful thinking indicates a detachment from reality that is often results in cessation of various things.
This is actually classic manipulative behavior. Disregard for consequences is cultivated as a means of control. Control is more important to the narcissistic mind than consequences. Whether there is capitulation or destruction control is asserted. This is a win win for the narcissistic mind. The narcissistic mind is quite common and is often successful. It is actually always successful by its own standards. Win win. Are current events really so surprising? Eventually someone chooses cessation rather than capitulation. The ability to determine when and where constitutes strategy and capitulation can be a form of strategy but sometimes that is not the choice. Nor will a narcissist allow that choice indefinitely if it represents a diminishment of control.
Good summary.
This approach cannot work! It seems bizarre that Trump thinks it can.
Really great stuff thanks. Non-market-based military investment is the lowest hanging fruit of civilizational MPP when organic market growth ends, which it did with the GFC.
“The other possibility that industrial civilizations ending is desired can not be eliminated as a motive.”
Yes it can be eliminated because the fact that the Collapse is structural eliminates motive altogether, right? Only a responsive desire for steering an extremely bumpy Glide Path Option remains.
So what is next?
Trump has clearly stated , back to the stone age for Iran using the weapon he insists they will never have…that makes sense in a pretzel logic kind of way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4URcwbHKwg
Pretzel Logic by Steely Dan, with lyrics
@redginaldsanders6122
3 years ago (edited)
Great Song, a really superb melody and Excellent harmonies, but I have No idea what the heck the song means…….and I’m not sure that I really care!! Oh yeah!! Ooh yeaaaaahh!!! Per DT
Theres always the revelations anti Christ thing. That’s above my pay grade.
No worries I’ve had that one covered for years now. Since cleaning toilets puts everything above my pay grade the wherewithal just comes back round again: rock bottom as elite cover. Trump as the new, widely accused last-minute false antichrist in order to provide cover for the actual metaphorical antichrist who is about emerge and facilitate the Global Peace Accords.
So Trump orders the straight blocked, this means more of a prolonged war that China is going to have to step in. At this point the best case scenario would be that things start moving around June if there is a peace deal? That seems like trouble
June you’ll say “end of summer for sure”
Well, it will have to step in. or at least sink them all from shore. But it would be best to send a sub to Gulf of Mexico, hit a few refineries, and encourage the USA to think in terms of consequences. Apparently I knew China’s interests better than China.
As per texts appeared in sparring match with Reante, the CHN has to chase several goals with different time-lines and priorities, this obviously is then easy to exploit as ~weakness by the US.
For one thing, CHN likes to bury the past centuries of humiliation for good – that means reaching par or above status to US, RU, and few EUros in terms of nuclear weapons, and other systems. They are not there yet and would take another decade+ .. Similarly in energy, large progress, but not there yet.
On longer perspective they know the ongoing western inner decay is in very advanced state – perhaps final stretch. They don’t need nor desire western money or institutions mid-long term at all..
I get that, but in as few words as possible, the US is trying to choke China’s energy supply, and does not mind if the rest of the world is collateral damage. I think Russia proved beyond a doubt that not reacting does not pay with the West, and in fact encourages them. And Iran has also proved that reacting does pay. China is not going to achieve its long term goals without a secure energy supply now, which meamns achieving escalation parity now.
I agree the problem is cultural ( path dependency ) though.
It’s not in CHNs DNA to use this opportunity and provide the final smack-down blow to the US/Western system. They will only tip toe to their ” victory ” and it’s a long winding route still ahead.
Similarly in RU, the post mid 1990s rejuvenation success by Putin+ cadre was build methodically on econ cooperation with the West. The starz were aligned then, ~rational decent people in power FR / DE. That ended in early 2010s – tables turned on RU. Attempted ~civil-war via UKR. Some of his generals and strategists called for pushing the button ( at least for the smaller load ) – well he said NO.. so the econ and human toll is staggering, it was avoidable to some time-threshold.
[ Trump says US to start blockading the Strait of Hormuz immediately ]
By Reuters April 12, 20261:05 PM UTC Updated 9 mins ago
April 12 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would immediately start blockading the Strait of Hormuz and would also interdict every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran.
Trump made his remarks in a Truth Social post hours after U.S-.Iran peace talks ended without a deal. Trump said the meeting “went well, most points were agreed,” but added the two sides had not agreed on Iran’s nuclear program.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” said Trump, who is strongly opposed to the idea of Iran charging ships a toll to pass through the strait.
“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” he said.
Reporting by David Ljunggren Editing by Bill Berkrot
–
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-us-start-blockading-strait-hormuz-2026-04-12/
Why didn’t Trump blockade Hormuz to Iranian oil on Day 1?
Because he’s energy blind
Why didn’t he do it before attacking Iran?
b/c he’s a military moron
Why does he jawbone about it now?
b/c he’s a bullshitter
Why is he President?
Because Americans believe bullshitters .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2043317258848460886/photo/1
US oil is no good for diesel or jet fuel
@Matalasdavid
It’s pale lager where stout ale is needed
Tankers filling up on US crude will become floating storage .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2043269908666941686/photo/1
There are no easy fixes to the Iran problem.
Efforts to curtail Iran’s oil exports would almost certainly trigger a sharp response from Tehran, most notably attempts to disrupt or shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a move would send global oil prices soaring, with immediate and far-reaching consequences for the international economy.
A naval blockade, often discussed as an alternative, is no silver bullet. It would require U.S. forces to operate in close proximity to Iran’s coastline, significantly increasing their exposure to risk. Iran’s geographic scale and military capabilities mean that sustaining such an operation would demand substantial and prolonged allocation of American resources.
More importantly, there is little reason to believe that a blockade would force Iranian capitulation. If anything, Iran’s demonstrated resilience thus far suggests the opposite, that it would absorb the pressure and respond, potentially through kinetic means, in order to reassert deterrence.
The likely outcome, then, is not a decisive breakthrough. Economic pressure on Iran would intensify, but so too would the strain on global markets and regional stability, particularly given the centrality of the Gulf to global energy flows.
Which raises an unavoidable question: if this approach were truly decisive, why wasn’t it pursued earlier?
I can’t see that far … is there U.s ships in the strait now? Maybe this will help Trump escalate this further if one of the ships is Sunk. I don’t believe nuclear weapons was the sticking point because Russia already offered to take it and Trump refused it.
Most people think after this is over things will return to normal. I don’t think so.
No US ships , naval or merchant in the strait at the moment . So the question now is will the US navy enter the Strait — if yes then they are sitting ducks — if not then will they start stopping ships that leave the Gulf but are out of reach from Iranian missiles ? Will they stop also ships carrying foodstuffs into the Gulf ? Will the US starve the ME ? Will US navy board ships carrying oil to China or with a Chinese flag ? Trump has a meeting with Xi in a month’s time . This guy is a moron .
The US teaming up with Iran to close the Strait is the “maybe if I put my leg up on yours” moment following the twisted Challah Bread Ceasefire.
“shit, I hate it when I get my schwartz twisted. Maybe if I put my leg up on yours we can split apart…”
https://youtube.com/shorts/kxd3NYyGaNY
Because Americans were not too hot about President Gopalan from Tamil Nadu
World’s largest platinum producer is in terminal decline
https://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/article/marketminute-2026-3-20-south-africas-platinum-mining-industry-warns-of-terminal-decline
Another problem, probably indirectly related to the diesel shortage as well as to the declining platinum ore quality.
Once the undisputed engine of the global precious metals market, South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) industry is now facing what its own leaders describe as an “irreversible terminal decline.” This month, a series of sobering warnings from the sector’s most powerful chief executives has sent shockwaves through global commodity exchanges, signaling that the structural collapse of the world’s primary platinum supply is no longer a distant threat, but a present reality.
The crisis reached a fever pitch in the first weeks of March 2026, as record-low above-ground stocks collided with extreme price volatility. While the industry is technically in its fourth consecutive year of supply deficit, the paradox of rising costs, aging infrastructure, and a rapidly shifting automotive landscape has rendered even high metal prices insufficient to save the most historic mining operations. With over 20,000 jobs shed since 2024 and the “Western Limb”—the heart of the industry—facing localized depletion, the narrative of South African mining is shifting from growth to a desperate, managed retreat.
So, how does the world get along without enough platinum? We seem to be encountering shortages in all kinds of other products we indirectly get from mining now, as well.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/iran-rejects-peace-negotiations/
Article: Iran has rejected the US terms. JD Vance simply talked about the nuclear issue that Iran will not commit to never developing a nuke. I believe there is a lot more than just that. The US is UNABLE to deliver Netanyahu who is a wildcard at this point and unless the US threatens to pull all support for Israel, which it will not do, then there is no leverage over Netanyahu.
The fact that he is desperate for a victory, which in his mind is the overthrow of Iran, this is going to get much worse. The market are screaming about the future. We will address that on the private blog. Iran wants a US guarantee that it will NOT be attacked again, and the US cannot speak for Netanyahu. Trump is not in control of this war. He is now a hostage held by Netanyahu. All he can do is now pretend to be a co-equal.
We’re all going back to the stone age, people…get ready….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_PSxMSupdg
No worries, Klummie, civilization will still be able to advance
| The Invention of Flight | 1960 Pilot Episode Clip
Iran war live: Ghalibaf blames US for failure of Pakistan ceasefire talks
Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf says his delegation raised “forward-looking” initiatives during ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, but the United States failed to gain the trust of the delegation in the talks.
US Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad after saying the talks with Iran ended without a deal, claiming he had put forward a “final and best offer”.
The blame game….suppose a lot of it to go around..
You are right. Our close ties with Israel are a major problem.
I mentioned one strain of Christians who believes that destroying today’s existing economy is necessary for certain end times events. Someone wrote me an email suggesting that an Islamic belief (in some strains of Islam) could provide somewhat of a similar problem.
Aren’t the revolutionary guards ideological not far from the islamic idea regarding the 12th madi? IE the destruction as way to bring his coming?
At least this makes clear, why Iran has this many long range missiles and needs nuclear war heads.
Perhaps we have two nearly suicidal groups: One strain of Christians, who have been pushing for a major Middle Eastern war, and one group of people following a strain of Islam, who have a somewhat similar belief.
I don’t know much about Islam. Does anyone else have insight into this?
I don’t know enough to say for sure, but everything I have read and everyone that I’ve talked too, is quite explicit that man cannot interfere in gods work and it’s a sin to believe otherwise, so no, the IRGC are not trying to force gods hand(there’s only one group that believe they are equal to god and they aren’t Asian). They’re patient for a reason.
The nuclear BS is just that. If Iran wanted nuclear weapons, they would have made them over 2 decades ago(what do you think the second fatwa was about).
The Iranians do not think in the blinkered way those of us brought up as corporate commodities do. A couple of the Lego videos gave more information about the Iranians, than a decade of studiously studying western writing could ever hope to achieve.
Haider is a difficult concept for westerners, but pay attention, there’s lots to learn(turn the volume up, it’s a beautiful language)
https://youtu.be/c1j2v-cMwCc?si=42fKJDeV_pv_2Hcm
Nice video. Thanks!
A little lighthearted Sunday entertainment:
Working at the train station:
One last one—please forgive me—this is my current favorite.
Wakes up on a rainy day, finds no food and no money and no heating oil. What’s a cat to do?
I knew there was a reason for AI.
The cat eating cooked salmon is funny.
Nobody ate salmon sushi till 1980s. Salmon sushi and various Japanish dishes in salmon were invented in Norway.
Only in Japan could a cat have a dream like this.
Wow! Trump is verbally firing off both barrels of his shotgun and all six chambers of his revolver at his “right wing” critics in the US.
This is a real treat. He’s produced a memorable rant that I am sure will have Norman nodding in agreement!
I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs.They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did! They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some “free” and cheap publicity.
Now they think they get some “clicks” because they have Third Rate Podcasts, but nobody’s talking about them, and their views are the opposite of MAGA — Or I wouldn’t have won the Presidential Election in a LANDSLIDE. MAGA agrees with me, and just gave CNN a 100% Approval Rating of “TRUMP,” not Hand Flailing Fools like Tucker Carlson, who couldn’t even finish College, he was a broken man when he got fired from Fox, and he’s never been the same — Perhaps he should see a good psychiatrist! Or Megyn Kelly, who nastily asked me the now famous, “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” question, or “Crazy” Candace Owens, who accuses the Highly Respected First Lady of France of being a man, when she is not, and will hopefully win lots of money in the ongoing lawsuit.
Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close! Or Bankrupt Alex Jones, who says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/04/09/president-trump-blasts-the-grifters-blackpillers-and-podcasters/#more-282380
Candice responds! Covered by Jimmy Dore
The blurb:
Candace Owens released a 49-minute video addressing Donald Trump directly, in which she accuses him of being “chained in a cave” like Plato’s allegory, manipulated by Benjamin Netanyahu, a member of the “Epstein class” and even asking, “Are you gay?” Owens argues Trump has betrayed his anti-war base by attacking Iran for Israel, citing his Truth Social rant attacking her, Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, and Alex Jones as “losers” while praising CNN polls.
She warns that Trump has sold his soul for gilded ballrooms and will be remembered as a slave who died in chains, unlike Charlie Kirk who “died free.” Jimmy and Americans’ Comedian Kurt Metzger note that even Trump’s own Truth Social platform has turned against him, with users calling him “insane” and demanding his resignation.
Candace’s take down is epic and absolute
I see the similarties between Modi and Trump . Both hyped by the media . The guy who has six bankruptcies is the biggest deal maker and the guy who in his own words ran away from home when 10 and lived on alms ( a la the monks in Thailand ) for 40 years is non biological and has been created by divine powers ( his own words ) to carry about great transformation in India . The MSM media hyped this and encashed the cheque . The problem with both is that the social media has overtaken the MSM . Trump has alienated 4 of the 5 biggest names — Tucker , Candance , Megyn , Alex Jones — the last one is Joe Rogan . When Rogan joins the 4 it will be the burial of DJT . The MSM excluding Fox is already waiting with it’s fangs out ( whatsoever is left of them as they are thouroughly discredited ) . I see the same pattern for Modi in India . From ” Vishwaguru ” to ” Vishwa achut ” as the social media content overhelms the MSM narrative of Modi . Live by the sword , die by the sword — live by the hype ,die by the hype .
Vishwa Guru = Teacher of the world
Vishwa achut = Pariah of the world
Karma ???
So what is next?
I think that with the madman in charge of Israel not being brought to heel by Trump, we are doomed to conflict leading to collapse.
The only possible solution is for Trump to invade Iran, which he has apparently chickened out on, because it is not a solution that is sustainable.
Iran can always throw drones at ships.
This is a manifestation that drone warfare capabilities will destabilize the entire world, leading to nuclear use and to eventual collapse.
We saw the beginnings of this in Ukraine….mighty Russia almost stopped by drone warfare, and apparently helpless to stop destruction of their refineries and oil infrastructure.
Now we see drone effects phase 2, in the straight of hormuz….this phase will likely collapse much of the world.
The remaining islands standing will succumb to drone warfare and energy cost.
The drones became so precise and small it’s impossible to deny some partial successful attacks ~deep with in RU. Both sides are sending daily hundreds of them.. various categories: recon, decoy, counter-drone, people hunting, object destroying, ..
UKR receives from W regularly ~100B fin aid packages ( well there was a small pause for the latest tranche ). That’s insane amount of money – and lets say even if only ~10-30% reaches the front in some capacity it’s surely to be felt..
Rogan and Brand jumped ship a long time ago. Dana White the UFC guy jumped ship.
Strange! Way back when, we had presidents who acted in a dignified manner.
Update .
Goldman’s latest peek at oil inventories. Asia’s really starting to fall, Europe next, then the US (as exports leap higher in coming weeks) .
https://x.com/OpenSquareCap/status/2043049540979429624/photo/1
A Panicked Race for Barrels Grips the Global Oil Market
In the North Sea, the world’s most important physical crude market, traders submitted 40 bids for cargoes last week, only four of which were met by offers. Cargoes for delivery in the coming weeks changed hands at unprecedented prices above $140 a barrel. Elsewhere, refiners have been hunting increasingly further afield for supplies, leading to a series of unusual trades and surging premiums for any oil that’s ready to ship right now.
Traders said the panicky moves across the world’s key physical oil markets demonstrated the scale of the shortfall in crude that’s due to be felt as the loss of supplies from the Middle East leaves a growing gap.
Skyrocketing prices are signaling that some European refiners will likely need to follow those in Asia and cut back production, they said — a move that might help to balance the market for crude oil but would deepen the shortfalls in vital products like diesel and jet fuel. (Bloomberg)
Instead of refiners cutting back production, protestors could stop production at some no-longer-needed refiners, as they seem to have done in Ireland. That will allow the remaining refiners operate at closer to capacity.
As expected , no solutions . The talks are over .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/several-us-warships-reportedly-transit-strait-hormuz-pakistan-talks-led-vance-start
Are we inclined to believe that the US is not in fact clearing my grandad’s limpet mines from Hormuz like the US is claiming?
Grab the popcorn.
One problem to the next!
Behind the scenes of the events of the leading political party in Slovakia
Behind the scenes at Smer events, alcohol flowed freely and drugs were present, according to a person who helped organize several party events last year.
Stanislav Fekoňa worked briefly for Smer in February and March 2025. He spoke about his experience in a video interview with Šimon Žďársky.
The host introduced him as a “rising star of Slovak political satire.” Fekoňa posts satirical videos on social media.
He works for an international logistics company, and when he was looking for a way to earn extra money, a family member reportedly arranged a part-time job for him with Smer. Despite promises of pay, he claims he received no money for his work.
For example, he was in the audience for the TA3 television show Král na ťahu on behalf of the party. He also claims to have produced several videos for Smer and hosted the party’s International Women’s Day celebrations in Trnava.
The event took place on March 20, 2025. The party did not release any photos from the event, but a figure strikingly similar to Fekoňa can be seen in footage from a video published by Smer’s regional organization after the celebrations.
In the interview, Fekoňa claims that he saw alcohol and drugs backstage at the event. “It was white; it definitely wasn’t snuff,” he said. “Alcohol was flowing like a river; if you’d seen how many bottles there were in the VIP area,” he told Žďársky.
According to him, one older Smer MP “ordered a prostitute from Amatérky and shouted about how much he likes 18-year-olds.”
MEP Ľuboš Blaha also spoke at the celebrations. “When he went up on stage, of course, he had a shot of vodka in one hand and a shot of cognac in the other—down the hatch,” claims Fekoňa.
According to him, members of Smer’s youth organization boasted that they use the drug kratom. It is an illegal substance in Slovakia that has a stimulating effect in low doses.
Neither the Smer party nor its representatives have yet commented on Fekoňa’s claims.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.postoj.sk/192661/dnes-treba-vediet
Some of the Epstein effect (or whatever you want to call it) seems to rub off political groups around the world. These groups can choose to obey laws, or not. They get together to strengthen their combined power and to make money off whatever they can.
AI was supposed to make people’s work easier. Instead, it turns them into “performance machines”
AI tools in offices promised a revolution: less routine work, more creative work, and more free time. Instead, the number of hours spent at the computer, the pressure to keep up the pace, and the risk of burnout are all on the rise—all while productivity has increased only marginally.
A February study in the Harvard Business Review revealed a surprising finding. At a medium-sized company where 200 employees fully embraced generative artificial intelligence, the workload did not decrease. On the contrary, it intensified. Employees were not forced to meet higher standards; they simply realized that thanks to AI tools, they could do more, so they took on more work.
Lunch breaks were shortened, and evenings were filled with “quick” tasks. Paradoxically, the subjective feeling of being overworked did not decrease; in many cases, it actually increased. Other studies confirm similar trends: while AI saves a few percentage points of working time, it has not yet noticeably changed wages or working hours. Employees are even working longer hours, even though they feel they are working faster.
When a “helper” at work opens the door to more work
AI speeds up individual tasks, freeing up time in the work schedule. In practice, however, that time doesn’t remain empty. Managers and employees themselves naturally fill it with other activities. A product manager suddenly manages to draft a rough code, an analyst writes the first version of a presentation, a marketer tests more campaign variants.
AI does not reduce the time required for existing work, but rather expands its scope. At the company in question, researchers observed a “self-reinforcing” cycle: tasks completed more quickly led to higher expectations for speed, which in turn reinforced dependence on AI, allowing for more tasks to be attempted and further increasing the workload.
A similar experience was shared anonymously on the Hacker News discussion forum, where an employee describes how, after switching to “AI everywhere,” expectations and stress within the team tripled, while the actual increase in productivity is estimated at around ten percent. Where should the growth in expected performance stop if the technology continues to accelerate?
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.trend.sk/technologie/ai-mala-ludom-ulahcit-pracu-namiesto-toho-z-nich-robi-stroje-na-vykon?itm_modul=in_article_related_articles_slider&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=article&itm_area=link_click&itm_position=2
I think this is the key:
“AI does not reduce the time required for existing work, but rather expands its scope.”
We think we can do more. We get increasingly stressed out by the amount of work we need to do.
Last week I had to write an e-mail to my business partner to stop believing in AI propaganda, as they started to introduce things that make no economic sense.
AI can be seen as a kind of organizational and thermodynamic catalyst.
Imagine an economy or a productive system as an engine. Energy is the fuel. AI is the engineer who comes in and bolts a turbo onto your old naturally aspirated engine.
Suddenly, the system becomes more powerful, more efficient, better optimized. Losses are reduced, processes are refined, decisions are faster.
But there’s a catch:
more useful power usually means more energy consumption upstream.
AI doesn’t create energy. It improves how we extract, convert, and use it. And by doing so, it often pushes the system to operate at a higher intensity. This is very close to the Jevons paradox: efficiency gains don’t necessarily reduce total consumption they can actually increase it.
And ultimately, AI cannot break physical laws.
It can optimize converters, reduce irreversibilities, and improve system-level efficiency but it remains bounded by fundamental constraints like entropy and the thermodynamic limits of systems, such as those described by the Carnot principle.
In short:
AI is not an energy source. It is an amplifier of organization that can increase the power and efficiency of a system but also its energy demand all within the hard limits of physics…. ( text pimped by AU0
Good points! AI tends to get a lot of things wrong, when it lightly tries to learn everything. It misses the fine points. It may even hallucinate. Those operating AI spend a lot of time, trying to fix the AI output. And people increasingly wonder whether what they an article they read is actually right, or whether it simply a regurgitation of false ideas that a person finds over and over in the press.
How China is the winner in this war . Prof Marandi from Teheran .
I think this is what breaks the world economy into two pieces. Americas versus the rest of the world, with China in charge of the Rest of the World.
From the transcript:
China sent missile components to Iran during the war. Chinese radar systems and navigation technology helped Iran fight. Then China turned around and helped broker the ceasefire through Pakistan. And now China will use the credit from that ceasefire as leverage when Trump visits Beijing next month.
One country, three moves, all sides played and nobody in the Western media is connecting the dots. That is what I want to do today. I want to connect the dots step by step. When you see the full picture, I promise you, you will never look at this war the same way again. Okay, let us begin. So, I want to introduce a concept that I think is essential to understanding what China is doing. I call it the triple game. Once you understand this concept, everything about China’s behavior in this war makes perfect sense.
Most countries play one game at a time. America plays the military game. Bombs, missiles, aircraft, carriers. That is America’s game. Iran plays the survival game. Resist, endure, hold the straight. That is Iran’s game. China plays three games simultaneously. The military game, the diplomatic game, and the economic game. And China plays a different strategy on each board. Let me walk you through each one.
Game one, the military board. On the military board, China officially declared itself neutral. China said, “We are not involved. Uh we want peace.” That is the public statement. But here’s what actually happened. Multiple sanctioned Iranian ships carrying sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient for building solid fuel rockets, traveled from China to Iran after the war started, not before the war. After Chinese-made radar systems and navigation technology sold to Iran before the war helped Iran’s electronic warfare capabilities during the fighting, Chinese technology helped Iran detect incoming strikes and coordinate its drone swarms.
Now, did China send soldiers? No. Did China fire missiles? No. But China made sure that Iran had enough capability to keep fighting, enough capability to keep the Straight of Hormuz closed, enough capability to make this war painful for America. Why? Because every day America spent fighting Iran was a day America was not focused on China. Every billion dollars America spent bombing Iranian factories was a billion dollars not spent competing with China in semiconductors in AI in the industries that actually determine who leads the world in the 21st century. This is game one on the military board. China quietly helped Iran survive without ever putting a Chinese soldier at risk.
Game two, the diplomatic board. Now, here is where it gets brilliant because at the exact same time China was helping Iran fight. China was positioning itself as the peacemaker. I want you to follow this timeline very carefully because it reveals something extraordinary. On March 31st, while the war was still raging, China and Pakistan jointly announced a five-point peace initiative, ceasefire, dialogue, civilian protection, reopening of Hormuz and a UN role. After that announcement, Pakistan’s foreign minister flew directly from Islamabad to Beijing. He met Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. They coordinated the next steps together.
Then China’s foreign minister made 26 phone calls. 26 to Iran, to Israel, to Russia, to the Gulf States. He was talking to everyone. And then Pakistan, China’s closest strategic ally, the country where China has invested over $60 billion through the belt and road. Pakistan brokered the ceasefire. Now I want you to think about what just happened. Pakistan brokered the deal. But who was behind Pakistan? Who coordinated with Pakistan before every major move? Who provided the diplomatic framework? who gave Iran the confidence to accept the ceasefire. China, Pakistan’s own ambassador to the United States, said it openly on CNN. He said China played a quiet but consequential role. The New York Times reported that China made the key intervention that secured the ceasefire. Bloomberg reported that Trump himself credited China for helping make the deal happen.
So, let me be very clear about what this means. China armed Iran to keep the war going. Then, China brokered the peace to end it. China decided when this war would be painful and China decided when this war would pause. That is not a neutral country. That is the country controlling the tempo of the entire conflict. Game three, the economic board. Now, the economic board, this is the most important board and this is where China truly wins. China buys over 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Let me say that again. 90%. China is not just a customer of Iranian oil. China is the customer.
Before this war, American sanctions meant Iran could barely export oil. The Iranian economy was struggling. Iran was desperate. But then this war started and something extraordinary happened. America needed global oil prices to not go too high because high oil prices destroy the American economy. So America quietly eased enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil. And who immediately stepped in to buy more? China.
Iran is now making billions more per month from oil exports than before the war and most of that money flows through Chinese banks, Chinese intermediaries, Chinese payment systems. The war that America started to weaken Iran has actually pushed Iran deeper into China’s economic system than ever before. But it gets even better for China.
Because of the war, because of the Straight of Hormuz closure, because of the chaos, Iran is selling oil to China at a significant discount below market price, because China is one of the few buyers willing and able to take the risk. Cheap oil means cheaper energy for Chinese factories. Cheaper energy means lower manufacturing costs. Lower manufacturing costs means Chinese goods are more competitive globally. While American businesses are struggling with energy prices above $90 a barrel, Chinese manufacturers are getting Iranian oil at a discount. The war that was supposed to weaken Iran and strengthen America is actually making Chinese manufacturing more competitive. You cannot make this up.
Okay, now I have shown you the three boards, military, diplomatic, economic. China is winning on all three. But the genius of the triple game is that most people can only see one board at a time. The Pentagon sees the military board. The State Department sees the diplomatic board. Wall Street sees the economic board. But nobody in Washington is seeing all three boards together. China sees all three. And China is playing all three simultaneously.
Now, I want to talk about something very specific that happened in the last 24 hours because this is the part that I think proves beyond any doubt that China is the biggest winner of this war. Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing in midMay. This will be his first visit to China as president since 2017. And the most important issue on the agenda, trade, tariffs, the economic relationship between America and China.
Now, think about the timing. China just helped broker a ceasefire that saved Trump from a political catastrophe. Trump was hours away from ordering the destruction of Iran’s entire civilian infrastructure, power plants, bridges, everything. The whole world was watching. Pope Leo called it truly unacceptable. Even Republican senators were getting nervous. And then China working through Pakistan helped deliver a ceasefire that Trump could call a victory.
Trump went on Truth Social and called it a big day for world peace. The market surged. Oil crashed. Trump looked like a dealmaker instead of a wararmonger. China did that. China gave Trump that win. Now, what do you think China’s going to ask for in return when Trump visits Beijing next month?
I’ll tell you exactly what China will ask for. Tariff reductions, easing of semiconductor export controls, relief on sanctions against Chinese technology companies. And Trump, who just publicly credited China for the ceasefire, who needs China’s cooperation to keep Iran at the negotiating table, who needs stable oil prices for the American economy. Trump will have very little leverage to say no. This is the ceasefire dividend.
China helped end the war not because China cares about peace. China helped end the war because it creates leverage. Leverage that China will cash in next month in Beijing.
And here is the deeper point. This is what I want you to really understand. America spent tens of billions of dollars on this war. American soldiers died. The American economy was shaken. Oil prices surged. Markets crashed. Allies were rattled. America’s global reputation was damaged. And what did China spend? Phone calls. 26 phone calls from the foreign minister. Some diplomatic coordination with Pakistan. That is it. That is the total Chinese investment.
America spent billions and got a ceasefire that is already collapsing. China spent phone calls and got leverage over the most important bilateral relationship in the world. This is the difference between a hammer strategy and a Sunsu strategy. America hits, China positions and positioning always beats hitting in the long run.
Now I want to show you that what China is doing is not new. This pattern has repeated throughout history and every time it repeats the outcome is the same. The country that fights loses. The country that waits wins. The first example is the one I always come back to. The Pelpeneian War. In 431 BC, Athens and Sparta went to war. Athens was the financial and cultural superpower. Sparta was the military superpower. They fought for 27 years. Both sides were devastated. Athens was destroyed. Sparta was exhausted.
And who won? Macedon, a kingdom to the north that everyone considered irrelevant. Philip of Macedon watched Athens and Sparta bleed each other dry. He built his army. He built his economy. He waited. And when the moment came, his son Alexander conquered the entire Greek world. America is Athens, Iran is Sparta, China is Macedon. The parallel is exact.
But let me give you a second example that I think is even more precise. And this one I have not heard anyone else discuss. The Napoleonic Wars. From 1803 to 1815, France under Napoleon fought Britain and the rest of Europe in a series of devastating wars. France had the most powerful army in the world. Britain had the most powerful navy. They fought each other for over a decade. And who won? Not France, not Britain.
Really, the true winner was the United States of America. While Europe was tearing itself apart, America was quietly expanding westward. America bought Louisiana from France in 1803. Napoleon sold it because he needed money for his wars. America doubled its territory overnight. America built its economy. America stayed out of European conflicts. And within a few decades, America had become the dominant in the Western Hemisphere. America won the 19th century not by fighting the biggest battles, but by letting the European powers exhaust each other and then filling the vacuum. This is exactly what China is doing today.
While America spends trillions on Middle Eastern wars, China is buying resources in Africa. China is building ports in Southeast Asia. China is signing trade in Latin America. China is expanding while America is exhausting itself.
—The video goes on from here several more minutes.
Further along he says:
Prediction number one, China will extract major trade concessions from Trump at the May summit in Beijing. Trump publicly credited China for helping broker the ceasefire. Trump needs China’s cooperation to keep Iran at the negotiating table. Trump needs stable oil prices, and China knows all of this. I predict that the May summit will produce a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, a partial easing of semiconductor export controls, and at least one major concession on technology restrictions. Not because Trump wants to give China these things, but because China has leverage now that it did not have 6 weeks ago. The ceasefire gave China that leverage. Watch the May summit. Watch what China gets.
Prediction number two. Within 6 months, China and Iran will announce an expansion of their strategic partnership. China signed a 25year, $400 billion partnership with Iran in 2021. That deal was mostly symbolic at the time. Many of the promised investments never materialized because of sanctions pressure. But this war has changed everything. Iran is now more dependent on China than ever. China is now buying over 90% of Iran’s oil. Iran needs Chinese technology to rebuild its destroyed factories. Iran needs Chinese investment to rebuild its infrastructure. I predict that within 6 months, China and Iran will announce a major expansion of this partnership, new infrastructure projects, new energy deals, new technology transfers, and this will accelerate the belt and road initiative through Iran faster than anyone expects.
Prediction number three, the Petro Yuan accelerates. Before this war, the idea of oil being traded in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars was discussed mostly as a theoretical possibility, something that might happen in 10 or 20 years. After this war, it will happen much faster. Here is why. The Gulf States just watched America fight a 40-day war and failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They watched their infrastructure get hit by Iranian drones. They watched America threaten to destroy an entire civilization. And they watched China quietly broker the peace.
The Gulf States are now asking a very simple question. Who is the more reliable partner? The country that starts wars it cannot finish or the country that builds your infrastructure helps end the war. I predict that within 12 months at least one major oil producing country and I believe it will be Saudi Arabia will announce a significant oil trade agreement denominated in Chinese Yuan. Not all of its oil, maybe 10 or 20%, but even that is a tectonic shift because once one country does it, others will follow. And when that happens, the petrodollar does not just weaken, it begins to die.
Prediction number four, and this is the big one. This is the prediction I want you to remember above all the others. Within 5 years, not 50 years, not 20 years, 5 years, China will become the dominant economic power in the Middle East, surpassing the United States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Marandi
Looking at Wikipedia, Dr. Mariandi’s full name is
Seyed Mohammad Marandi[a] (born 14 May 1966) is an Iranian-American academic, intellectual and political analyst. He is closely linked to the Iranian government.[1][2] In 2024, he was described as a “mouthpiece” of the Iranian government by London-based news source Iran International[1][3] and as “one of the staunchest defenders of the Islamic Republic in English-language media” by Iranwire.[4][5]
He was born in Richmond, Virginia, United States to Alireza Marandi, later the doctor of the second supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei. Mohammad Marandi moved to Iran at the age of 13 when he volunteered to fight in the Iran–Iraq War. Marandi later studied at Birmingham University, England. He currently serves as a professor at the University of Tehran.
I wonder whether he is a us citizen. He was born in USA so I wonder whether his citizenship can be revoked
Kulm — What difference does it make ? — Billary Clinton 🤣
Historians will one day write that this was the moment that the US Empire unraveled. There always comes that moment when the dominant Empire gets exposed and a changing of the guard begins. China has played the long game knowing their time would come.
The opposition Leader of Taiwan recently visited China and cosy up to Xi Jinping. That should give an indication that the era of US dominance is coming to an end.
Good points!
If this is true the United States goes into freewill or at the least massive decline. Are they willing to accept that? Have they been beaten that bad…Does China actually trust the U.S to make a deal like that? Does the U.S trust China? Sounds like there is a lot of variables to make all this work….I don’t see it happening. But sounds really good on paper….
This is sort of what I have been saying, about the Trump (and the US) perhaps being given the America’s. China will be in charge of doling out to the rest of the world whatever they get.
Yes, the US has been beaten, “That bad.” It has been shown that the US, with all of its bases, cannot really protect its allies. It does not deserve the hegemony any more.
Furthermore, there really isn’t enough oil available with our current expertise to get much out at an affordable cost. We either have to become more efficient, or somehow shrink back as an economy.
So what then happens to Israel? I’ve seen a couple of videos by Chinese-Canadian Xueqin Jiang, who predicts that Iran and Israel will be the two big powers in the Middle East. Large US tech firms like Nvidia will move to Israel, he says. Really? Will the USA still support Israel? There are of course plenty of powerful Zionists and neo-con Zionists in high positions in the USA, meaning that they also have masses of wealth at their disposal. No doubt they will still want to shovel lots of it towards Israel. But without the USA, tiny Israel would be nothing. In the long term then, I think Xueqin Jiang is dead wrong. The US-Iran war is not popular in the USA, I understand. There will still be many pro-Israel and pro-Zionist voters among non-Jews in the USA, but surely not as many as before, because of mass-murdered Netanyahu and the fact that he managed to drag Trump into his war.
Energy Trap; Beyond Ceasefire: How Hormuz Crisis Cascades Into Global Recession w/ Stanislav Krapivnik
All kinds of comments about oil and energy, but I don’t see much about global recession.
Regarding Europe and Ukraine:
So now we’re looking at Central Europe going bust. So the EU made its bed with the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are now doing what the Ukrainians always do. They’re going to screw everybody as hard as they can. And the Europeans are going to suffer even more.
And yet Brussels continues to give them more money, which is the insanity, and trying to remove Orban and replace him with a a national trader that’s going to do whatever Brussels wants and and raise costs inside of Hungary for energy. So, that’s what one there is a slight bright point.
Around minute 30 or a little later, there is discussion about making gas from coal (coal gas). Perhaps that could be done again, except now there is building on top of old coal mines.
Turkey is now unhappy with Ukraine. 32:38:
Erdogan is now talking about sending the Turkish Navy to work with
the Russian Navy to protect all of these energy facilities against the Ukrainians.
The media is not reporting this correctly.
There is discussion about Ukraine taking out 3 of Russia’s oil refineries. Now, that is adversely affecting the oil being piped into Hungary and Slovakia, and even into Ukraine [if I’m understanding the transcript correctly].
Regarding recession, Stanislav Krapivnik says that the US already was in technical recession. Fighting, if it continues, will make it worse. I don’t see anything about global recession, however.
There is discussion of Israel’s causing genocide of the people in Lebanon in the part of the country that Israel wants to take over.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IMF-Warns-Iran-War-Will-Leave-Lasting-Scars-on-Global-Economy.html
Oil Price is reporting that the IMF saying
IMF Warns Iran War Will Leave Lasting Scars on Global Economy
–
The IMF says the Iran war will slow global growth, raise inflation, and worsen fuel and food insecurity.
-Kristalina Georgieva warned that vulnerable energy-importing countries, especially Pacific islands, face the worst immediate shortages.
-The economic fallout is expected to persist even if Hormuz reopens, with the UK among the countries likely to be hit hard later this year.
Manuel’s bargaining with the situation on the systems level and making the babiest of steps towards formulating it. As I said and analysed on numerous occasions, the catabolic phase for extending and pretending is Phase 1 of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA), but that has ended because we are at the point where Globalization has to be control demolished with the Big Nuclear Scare or it collapses chaotically. That’s not catabolism. After the Big Nuclear Scare, a bare bones shell of a civilization staggers on for as long as it can while the nuclear aspect of the civilization gets neutralized as best as possible.
I’m as big a conspiracy theorist as anyone but the difference with me is I don’t lionize while demonizing: I don’t conceive of the Hand as being bigger than Collapse and evil to boot. If we just take a step back from all of Hand driven theater that aims to present a mythical Elite with preternatural powers capable of having its way with Collapse and coming out the other end still farming people technologically, we see the simple physics of the Predicament: if you want to stop a skyscraper from collapsing and killing everyone in its way, you control demolish it. And that’s it. You control demolish finance capitalism because it’s the most brittle economics and you denuclearize for obvious reasons. Priorities 1 and 1A of any degrowth agenda. The two things that the academic field of Degrowth theory has always identified, except for that field was always populated by slow-collapse Squares. The DA is for fast-collapse Circles who ain’t trying to square the circle. That’s the simple function of any degrowth agenda – controlled demolition. Manuel wants to demonize the Elites such that the Elites become mythical creatures surfing Collapse like Laird Hamilton paddling into Jaws. Surfing their way into some kind of expanded technological Hunger Games scenario. That’s Hollywood fantasy. Nobody can skip steps. Not Michael Jordan, not Zinedine Zidane, not Lionel Messi, not Laird Hamilton. You don’t become great by skipping steps. All of those guys got to the top with repetition and evolutionary genius. Tens of thousands of repetitions. Without those repetitions, any embracing pretensions about great endeavor just turns you into aa fantasist — a fiction writer — with fantasy being the escapist vehicle for bargaining with the terminal Collapse of industrialism. Manuel needs to keep it real. If he wants a new theory he has to earn it by showing his work. By showing us exactly how current events have been, are, and will be tracking with his theory.
My point about repetition is that there is no practicing for Collapse. The Elites, the Hand — whatever you wanna call em –doesnt get to practice for collapse. Me and the Hand can visualize the DA til the cows come home but that’s not practice. That’s not surfing Collapse by surfing progressively bigger waves over two decades until you can surf Jaws. Because there’s only one collapse
All that the Hand can do is trial and error DA techniques on the fly, and visualize and theorize.Tbe Hand IS great in its civilizational context, but it will never be truly great at the sport of surfing Collapse because it only gets one shot at it. And make no mistake, the Collapse of this civilization is analogous to the gnarliest of surfable Big Waves on the planet. Manuel’s scenario fantasizes that elites can paddle into this monster that’s moving at fifteen mph, drop in, make the bottom turn, and hope you can get to the shoulder and exit before churning beast with waves within waves running down its face, closes out on you — and without ever having tried before. Skipping over a hundred little situational skills that you don’t even know you have a need for until you wipe out on a wave that’s bigger or gnarlier than you’ve surfed before, and each of which skill requires extensive repetition. And then lastly you have to successfully string all of those new skills together.
Thanks for taking the effort to publish it in approachable format, it’s a good workable and testable hypothesis.
I’m kind of questioning only the boundaries.
Evidently ( some ) of the key players are now very busy building their nation state+ tech fiefdoms, e.g. Scandinavians and some W. EU ( former #1 eco-fanatics ) now marshaling NPP renewal as chiefly for their natgas impoverished grids from now on into the future, among other notable examples of changing course – strategy.
NPP is a complex-thing which under constant upkeep ( incl. partial replacement ) functions ~60-80yrs, hence there in it is clearly encoded [ manifested intent ] to pick and choose, i.e. continued tech-civ on some different footprint though.
To whom ( domestic and/or foreign ) they are willing to jettison under the proverbial bus is not that clear ( unfolding ), since they will need some of the 2-3rd world to such plan as well..
I get that the renewed bureaucratic interest in nuclear power apparently runs contrary to the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda’s theorized primary reason for being, but appearances can be deceiving when it comes to Statecraft. Who here thinks that at this point a revitalized global nuclear power industry is affordable? Who thinks that the Western AI industry is affordable?Who thinks that industrial civilization is affordable? Who thinks that the bureaucracy’s job is to sell hopium?
Your surfing analogy is interesting, but it assumes that some form of learning or training is possible when it comes to collapse. Historically, though, no civilization has ever “learned” how to collapse in a controlled way.
The problem isn’t just the lack of training. It’s the nature of the system itself: it’s caught in feedback loops and structural inertia that make any controlled dismantling nearly impossible.
A collapse isn’t a big wave you learn to surf. It’s more like a sinking ship that take waves in the same time.
At first, everything seems under control. Then water starts flooding the technical compartments. Critical systems begin to fail. Power goes out. Instruments become unreliable or go dark. The pumps that were slowing the flooding stop working. Communications are lost.
And at that point, you lose the very ability to manage the situation.
Even the backup solutions fail:
electrical systems to launch lifeboats are down
manual systems don’t work either, because you already laid off Brad from maintenance to cut costs
crews aren’t trained for extreme situations
coordination breaks down into general chaos
You end up facing too many critical problems at once, with no means left to solve them.
That’s what a systemic collapse looks like.
What you’re describing the idea that some “Hand” could improvise in real time assumes it still retains its capacity to act. But that’s precisely what disappears first.
It’s not a lack of skill that makes collapse unmanageable.
It’s the progressive loss of the very functions that would allow those skills to be used.
And that’s why, historically, we don’t observe controlled dismantling, but cascading disorganization.
Nice to hear from you again Entropie.
You misunderstood my post. Like you, I was also saying that the Elite management of Collapse isn’t a skill that can be learned through repetition. The Hand gets one shot at it.
The collapse of the confederated nation states of the world — what we currently call globalization — hasn’t happened yet. What I call the Hand is the global TT Think Tank in Ray McGovern’s genius MICIMATT acronym, though I don’t think he himself realizes the full genius of it since he’s not a bonafide conspiracy theorist that we can tell, and he also didn’t mean it in the global sense. So long as the nation states remain confederated under a combination of threat and mutual interest, the Hand can exist, right? Because that is the Hand’s existential territory.
The DA posits that the Hand, assuming success, can control demolish global finance capitalism while maintaining the nation state confederation and transitioning it to multilateral national socialisms until that replacement geopolitics collapses, upon when doing so the Hand dies along with the confederation under its purview. Much of that transitional work has already been completed ahead of the demolition phase (which is right now) as would be expected with any restructuring of any system that is undertaken on the fly.
If you disagree, I welcome your counterarguments, but I don’t think I’m saying anything that contradicts what you said.
One word is enough:
Chaos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcNqv0dm2lA
Collaps = Chaos
chaos is too easy what were seeing here is controlled demolition the elders the hand have buillt in lifeboats such as the “dark fleet” providing a minimum amount of oil products to the highest bidders so some countries will be worse off than others which is exactly what Gail has told us in her articles yes there is degrowth enabling bau-lite world to evolve they are all in on it iran’s elders america’s elders europe’s elders they are international vs the people and they have been working on this for years.If the pandemic had worked we would be on a different reality population would be dropping fast and a universal basic income would have been introduced but the pandemic reality was extinguished now we go to the next phase of the plan which is high inflation and a great depression part 2 will their be a population drop probably not just an increase in tough times middle class will survive but just more poorer the poor will return back to the land or sell themselves to the highest bidder electric vehicles and renewable energy will take over but fossil fuels will still play a part just to the highest bidder.
adonis although I disagree on a number of those details, I agree with you on the design. This is obviously not organic chaos. Anybody who thinks it is organic, has basically been herded into a new form of political extremism, meaning an extremist ideology intent on viewing the public relations presentation of politics as Reality itself.
Welcome to the Matrix, which is just a mythological term for consumer consciousness. Buying what you’re seeing because you are Homo Economicus down to your bones.
But if efficiency can be concentrated into small pieces of the current world economy, perhaps those pieces can afford the higher-cost energy, while other portions atrophy from lack of energy. If a few islands can be chosen–say the Boston area, plus the Houston area, and maybe some associated land used for farming–maybe the efficiencies of these areas can keep them bidding for imported goods for a while.
We found in 2008 that China was able to bid away world oil supply, presumably because it was more efficient in using it. It leveraged oil use with lots of cheap coal use, which was more efficient for industry that having workers spend a lot of wages on gasoline for their vehicles. Also, not spending a lot on healthcare made China more competitive. The US seems to have cheap natural gas to use now.
If we’re talking about the current world economy under petrodollar deflation then the increase in the real value of the dollar relative to oil would lend itself to increased purchasing power of higher cost energy assuming the regional money supply has been made adequate at everyone else’s expense. Killing the internet first would probably be a smart move.
Without massive sulphuric acid production to mine and refine uranium, a nuclear industry is not affordable. Uranium ore refining is being shut down NOW as we speak.
Did the “planners” miss this in their evil collapse game scenarios?
Doubt it. Man does not have the wisdom to do this.
Excellent observation Jesse. As the bureaucrats chase nuclear power, the nuclear power industry gets undermined structurally. Classic Hand misdirection play.
Some of us are getting confused. The Manuel you are talking about is the one in this comment:
extremely insightful comment..(by Gil Manuel Hernandez over at Quark’s blog)
I fear this already has a name, even if it hasn’t yet been fully accepted: we are entering a phase of induced collapse, or, if you prefer, a logic of catabolic capitalism. A capitalism that no longer grows by incorporating new resources, but feeds on its own decay, its own weaknesses, its own decline. A system that has exhausted its expansive drive and yet resists disappearing, prolonging its existence by managing its own deterioration in a capitalist fashion.
In this context, collapse ceases to be merely an undesirable consequence and becomes an opportunity.
Some other bloggers and I both liked this comment very much. I think this is a major part of how things work. We know that when ancient civilizations collapsed, later civilizations took the stones used in the walls, and reused them in other buildings. Dmitry Orlov writes about some similar things happening in Russia, after the Soviet Union collapsed.
You say, “You control demolish finance capitalism” first. Things have to go in that order. I would agree that before new can be built up, there needs to be some step in between. For example, if islands of possible growth in the US in Boston, Atlanta, and Houston are to be built up, it become necessary for the current United States structure, as it stands today, to go away, with its financial capitalism. But I see that as a government change, as much as anything. If the overall US government is replaced by more regional governments, with different financial systems, then different areas can go forward in different ways.
Thanks Gail. But let’s get critical on it. Let’s achieve criticality by examining this key sentence of Manuel’s:
“A capitalism that no longer grows by incorporating new resources, but feeds on its own decay, its own weaknesses, its own decline.”
The devil is always in the details. Catabolic collapse is collapse and not growth. Yet Manuel is framing catabolism as a new cannibalistic growth framework for capitalism (that everyone knows must grow or it dies). He’s saying that capitalism can grow by feeding on its own decay. Last I checked, 5-1=4 and not 6. Yet 6 is his thesis. That’s a thesis that’s a 10 out of 10 on the stoopid scale. How easy it is to deceive oneself and others when emotions run high.
How does a capitalist Hunger Games City State collateralize infrastructure that was scaled up and complexified for globalization? It can’t. If nation states under the glabalist mantle can’t do it because we’re mostly all agreed here that nation states are looking down a Senecan Cliff then how can city states ever hope to do that? Such economies would largely have to be built from the ground up again. Civilizations are custom builds. Where are the affordable industrial resources for doing that now that they’ve all been used up?
But during catabolic collapse, I would expect individual entrepreneurs to always exist. They will look for ways to reuse devices and resources that have been used before. They will be trying new approaches that they hope will work. They will be making shopping malls into housing, in areas where farming can be done, perhaps. They will be trying to get more use out of what is available, while using minimal additional resources. So, from the entrepreneur’s point of view, capitalism still is available, even though the overall system is in decline.
Sure, as long as there are sufficient surpluses running through the society for money to freely circulate in market economies, capitalism will exist and, therefore, entrepreneurs. Marxism and national socialism are still ultimately market economies based on capital, which makes them capitalist in the broadest sense. They’re just more heavily regulated for ideological reasons that are opposed to capitalist ideology, and each other’s ideologies as well.
… and less motivated to work!
First topped up CHN tankers through Hormuz..
—
Tankers exit Gulf via Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran talks begin
By Florence Tan April 11, 20261:19 PM UTCU pdated 1 hour ago
SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters) – Three supertankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed, marking what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal and as peace talks got under way in Pakistan.
..
.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-oil-tankers-transit-strait-hormuz-data-shows-2026-04-11/
—
Perhaps China is really in control.
LMAO . Moron .
” US President Trump told
@KellieMeyerNews
of
@NewsNation
this morning that the US is “bringing mine equipment to remove mines placed in the Strait of #Hormuz.
When I asked if the intelligence is true that Iran doesn’t know where the mines are placed, he said, “I don’t know.”
But he said, “we know where they’re placed.”
He added, “we’ve got the most sophisticated mine equipment in the world. We know it. We’re just bringing it to the location.”
I thought the US depended on countries in Europe for mine sweeping technology.
Doyon Rig 26 (January 2026): North America’s largest land-based drilling rig, Doyon Rig 26, toppled over on Alaska’s North Slope while being moved on an ice road. This incident caused a small fire and significant damage to the rig, but there were no serious injuries, and no impact to oil infrastructure or major environmental damage.
Shell’s Kulluk (2012/2013): While not Exxon, Shell’s Kulluk drill rig ran aground in the Gulf of Alaska after a massive storm severed its towline. This incident caused significant damage to the vessel and sparked a major debate regarding the dangers of Arctic drilling.
Exxon Mobil in the Kara Sea (2014): ExxonMobil started a $700 million well in the Russian Arctic, but the project was subsequently halted due to international sanctions, not a platform failure.
It is awfully difficult to make drilling economic in the Arctic region. There are too many accident and things that don’t work correctly. There is also the problem of bringing the oil back to regions where it is to be used, adding costs to the overall project.
My reply to your first post on Arctic either in moderation or get lost so here cont. on another angle..
That last item 2014 ( Kara Sea ) you listed is most likely it, but in western/int. media it’s filed as Exxon-Mobil & Rosneft project instead ( and Halliburton mentioned as also run smaller contractor-partner.. ).
https://gcaptain.com/rosneft-announces-victory-kara-sea-huge-discovery-made/
+many other articles..
No self respecting materials freak could not have respect for steel. The low cost. The outrageous tensile strength. Very little can be created without steel. I think the argument can be made that steel is king of materials. As such I think steel is a good representation of the world as we know it. This incredible material is both respected and taken for granted. A well known characteristic is understood but disregarded at the same time.
Steel is a disapitive structure.
The massive consumption of oil allows the creation of steel. The molecules are bound together through energy consumption creating the king. But sooner or later oxidation takes place and the energy consumption steel is borne of is lost to entropy.
So there it is. The king. No engineering project can occur without steels tensile strength. We regard it as a absaloute undefeatable within its limitations which are miniscule. STEEL! We understand steel is borne to disassemble only as a afterthought. As we assemble the molecules with oil it is known from the beginning they will disassemble in relative short order. That disassembly becomes a afterthought because of the raw power the assembly creates. When the disassembly occurs it’s someone else’s problem. Except time has passed. I’m not talking about steel now. Disapitive structures are disassembling. At least steel was understood as a disapitive structure even though we treat that as a afterthought in lieu of steels greatness. Greater problems arise when disapitive structures are regarded as permanent. How ignorant. How unskillful.
Well we will just replace the unskillful right? Uh all the replacements are just as unskillful. They all believe the power of multiple disapitive structures to be infinite. Even as they crumble to dust in our hands they believe. They have no other paradigm. It is easier to believe in permanence even as things become dust. Skill is perhaps useful in the beginning. In the end not so much. Permanence is a very popular belief.
Norman wrote a whole book on it…right Norm?
FE will sign a copy for you too.
I am of course just citing a example of Gail’s insights. Participation is not a bad thing. The insight is not original. Sharing a perspective as a materials freak.
We run into the issue of assuming permanence on way too many things: homes that have been built, bridges, pipelines, factories, the governments we have today, for example. They all will eventually fail.
Yes, perhaps Tusk that .PL fachid#ot / fachtrottel is reading this forum as well, he just proclaimed the world and coalitions as we knew it for decades doesn’t exist anymore – and from now on, order falling into more nation states for themselves etc..
I am not sure you understand what a dissipative system is. If you have faithfully read Gail’s posts you will.
I had been thinking of dissipative systems as things that, at least temporarily grow. The stay away from a dead state by the use of energy. I think of hurricanes and businesses and governments and dissipative systems.
I hadn’t stopped to think about all of the physical things that are made using energy. We could include rocks in this category. Rocks gradually weather away to dirt or sand. They are not permanent.
But a chair or table or a steel girder is not permanent either. Energy is used in building or creating any of these objects. In some sense, they are dissipative structures, as well.
I am told that any sum of dissipative structures leads to yet another dissipative structure. I think we get to the point where we start to see that the Universe itself is a dissipative structure. I am told the Universe is expanding. In fact, it is expanding at an ever-growing rate. This suggests to me that there is some Higher Power that even today continues to add energy to the Universe, allowing it to grow and become more complex, without collapsing.
Guest at Duran bros. claims during Obama yrs Halliburton+Rosneft struck exploratory well ( sample for one in total 10 x 100B clusters ) over-all ~1T$ light sweet crude field-region in the Arctic sea north of Arkhangelsk, ~close 1000km to pre-existing westward exporting pipelines onshore to Baltics or sea route; but platform could work only part of the year because of the ice.
14:25min https://youtu.be/6AAl0ycBwVo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkhangelsk_Oblast
—
So, ( a hint in general ) there are still some oil provinces left to the very bitter end..
They know nothing about oil .
” In September 2015, Royal Dutch Shell announced it would cease Arctic drilling operations off the coast of Alaska for the “foreseeable future”. This decision followed a $7 billion investment that yielded insufficient oil and gas at its Burger J well, coupled with high costs, challenging regulations, and strong environmental opposition.
National Geographic
National Geographic
+2
Key details regarding Shell’s decision:
Failed Exploration: The Burger J well in the Chukchi Sea did not find enough commercially viable oil or gas to justify further investment.
Financial & Safety Concerns: Shell spent $7 billion on the campaign, facing years of logistical challenges, legal challenges, and equipment failures.
Reputational Pressure: Environmental groups like Greenpeace and WWF hailed the decision as a major victory, citing high risks of an oil spill in the remote region.
Regulatory Issues: The company cited an unpredictable federal regulatory environment as a factor in abandoning the project.
NPR
NPR
+7
Shell promised to plug and abandon the well and move its equipment out of the region.
NPR
NPR
? No such ( biased ) regulatory pressures in that RU+ region.
Plus that Duran’s guest bio is somewhat of directly oil industry ( former? ) participant..
Yes, that particular Shell Burger_J well ( Chukchi and Beaufort seas ) has been mentioned here in terms of US debate, but it is certainly NOT the only play in that wider area.. Moreover, that play is merely 150mi ( outward continental shelf ) out of coast likely very different dynamics vs that mentioned RU arctic oil province ( ultra deep ?)..
As already mentioned in other post finally getting through – it was my bad comprehension of that interview.
That play is located in Kara Sea, basically on the shelf north of these rivers ~estuary, it’s off-shore shallow category, merely ~hundred meters of water and then -2km into the seabed.
I assumed they talked about ultra/deep as in closer to this darker blue upper left corner Barents Sea – near Franz Josef Land – archipelago..
map:
(h)ttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/32839c8d-2ede-4a70-b54a-28f680f79d2f/jgrc24275-fig-0001-m.jpg
To put it in perspective the Mississippi dispatches into GOM more or less the same volume as those 4x rivers combined on the linked map into Kara Sea. Only from that angle the potential for gas and oil in situ is expected, and proven correct by that mid 2010s exploration.
The Canyon profile also rhymes to some extent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_Canyon
Stanislav and Mercouris are usually long-winded, but I thought this one was a little denser in terms of information and on-topic discussion than usual. Put it on 2x speed and it’s interesting.
Yes, I also tend you use double speed often.
Moreover this info could serve as tangential support to my previous speculation that Don’s Greenland thing was not only about rare earths mining and air fields / rocket bases, but perhaps chiefly about ~similarly yielding oil province..
Although I’m not geologist and by laymen terms that RU site strikes more probability given today’s realities and geologic past in that part of the world..
Btw. in that wiki page speak about ~local draft horse variety-breed which is close to extinction now ( area depopped ), but very compact sturdy – fly tolerant ( low country that sea shore sometimes muddy ) ..
Imported W. European draft horses mentioned as entering their prior genetic fund.
The topic of theoretical reserves vs affordable and timely reserves is a well worn one no longer relevant in this moment. If it were to become relevant again, then so be it.
It’s still relevant in this very time on the practical base level as prior example of joint ventures among countries, as you know today still ongoing lot of other oil/gas projects inside RU proper and around -stans, and even int/global where US-RU are key partners, shareholders..
I think that topic of theoretical vs. affordable reserves is as important now, as it ever was. We need high oil prices. We also need supply lines for basic things like high quality steel to drill wells. Most people put way too much faith in theoretical reserves.
Maybe, with new technology in 25 or 50 years, more can be extracted, but I doubt that we are “there yet”.
We’re not going anywhere right now but down, and quickly. We’re not going upwards to a future twenty years from now in which oil that is unaffordable today is suddenly affordable because technology. Hence the perceived irrelevance on my part.
Hey Gail do you know why my comments aren’t posting immediately like they have been?
It’s not exactly – exclusively about unobtanium needed decades of technology. The Arctic shelf drilling is not extra deep, that YT interview or my understanding of it was wrong, actually it’s classified as [ off shore – shallow ]. The issue is on/off wind deep chill-freeze on tech and large ice blocks, hence sturdier platforms needed.
Jr what happened to the basic idea that we progressively pick the lowest hanging fruit all the way up the tree? Suddenly not applicable to Arctic oil?
Well, that’s exactly what and why I posted it with interest. That RU Arctic oil looks just another multi decade like GOM bonanza, it’s in a way still low hanging fruit ( vs even more exotic – costly options ), pls. refer to my links and discussion.
We don’t know where the threshold snaps. Perhaps even this summer-fall hungry hords of Italy, Greece, .. freak out and completely derail EU, and hasten thus globo-fin reset into over-all lasting disintegration, where CHN goes solo with coterie of symbiotic groupie states. Kind of fall of the West Roman Empire 2.0
Or not, and the ~balanced globo sys continues to soldier for up another two decades, than comes heavier crack seq.
Many scenarios possible.
Thanks Jr but the Eastern and Western Roman empires didn’t share the same resource base and, therefore, economies. And the yuan is pegged to tbe dollar such that the PBOC doesn’t have independent control of its interest rate setting. If the US enters into deflation, so does China. If China breaks the peg, the yuan appreciates dramatically, all else being equal, and still enters into deflation. And, given that you accept the political theater at face value, do you really think the US would let the East survive at its own expense given that the East is completely beholden to the West for bringing them into the fascist global marketplace? I certainly don’t.
I looked at a brief overview of Kara Sea oil and it is certainly not characterized as low hanging fruit. And there’s still the outstanding issue that Russia unilaterally seized Exxon’s 33% stake in Kara Sea operations.
This recent Carnegie article is a detailed one and does not paint a rosy picture:
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/07/russia-new-oil-project
Well you said it..
West and East Roman Empire bifurcated fundamentally on re-source – structure of their income base and trade ( apart from the defense angle thing). That’s evidently to be ~repeated now.
Similarity which rings the bell ?
We are talking here daily about the increasing – NOT converging mega trends in CHN vs RoW ( meant incl. US+EU, .. row ). On many levels social, tech, long term biz relations to partners ( win – win vs juicing out and kick out )..
CHN could ~effort it to abandon the (US/EU) as key export realm. However, it doesn’t work that other way around as the de-industrialization, and psycho-social-edu-health levels dropped so profoundly in the meantime/recently inside the West.
In that mega trend end point CHN doesn’t care about Yuan-USD(int) one bit. It will simply snap as some threshold of old decayed model of operation, while other means of commerce settlement wheeled in.
In my book there is now like 85% prob of it taking place before ~2035. Chiefly depending on further cascade self-inflicting wounds of the West going forward, less of them = postponed day of reckoning. This Iran thing likely accelerated it by ~15yrs..
which could have been originally 2035-50 horizon..
PS these RU %biz expropriations are direct ( fully legalized ) answer to prior western sanctions of their assets – i.e. nothing-burger which could be turned around like pushing a light switch if there is a will ( or desperation at future point in time) to do that..
They didn’t bifurcate. They were separate economies and resource bases.
Sorry, did not follow.. what you aim at?
The internal trade under Roman Empire proper was quite extensive, cargo moved in all directions. It got less efficient during the past centuries ( internal wars and foreign action , harvest up / down ), then in snapped, nucleus for each future domain was snowballing as in effectively two state centers evolved, then as ~very last measure came that over-all political W/E Roman Empire divorce.. by that time (prior to it) it was already bifurcated..
That’s standard history run, explanation – in my world at least.
+ kind of funny: US occupied that region after WWI briefly..
~90yrs later they joined forces on that drilling, and perhaps during WWII also some material allied convoys went through that route..
I am puzzled that they can not control the ice. Surely they have thought of buffer areas around the pylons, similar to what has been done for the Kerch Bridge. I assume the Alaska part of the Arctic will also have oil.
I understand that there is a problem with some areas being natural gas, rather than oil. It is hard to get the price of natural gas up high enough to justify extraction. Natural gas is too difficult/expensive to ship long distances. LNG adds huge costs.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/el-final-del-camino
I just read this by Quark sobering with a glimmer of hope albeit a simple one not the grandiose life we have been living. I had planned to take some trips this summer out of country but now they seem gratuitous with so many people on the planet suffering and more to come.
I am not too hopeful on the peace negotiations today it seems like it will be difficult for them to come to a consensus. The United States has not been negotiating in good faith. Trump would have to give a lot and still be able to come away and lie about it and make him seem like he saved face.
And the deal must have enough kickbacks for the Trump family.
” Prominent journalist Max Blumenthal reveals Lara Trump and Don Jr. own a 30 percent stake in Salem Media, a registered Israeli foreign agent! The Trump family is literally taking millions from the Israeli government to propagandize the American public.” ?
https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2042930392265560493?s=20
I am having trouble translating this. Google translate doesn’t work for me today “to protect my security.”
The end of the road seems to have to do with rule now being by the strongest country, and what it wants, rather than through established laws and procedures. When there is not enough to go around, that is precisely what happens. You may think you own your home, but if someone stronger comes along, you are likely to lose it to him.
Can someone explain the economics behind social fragmentation media ?
According to Yahoo’s A.I.:
“Social media marketing does not allow companies to target multiple audiences at the same time. Social media use is unpredictable, with users only logging in once or twice per week. Companies do not have control over the message. Social media does a poor job of driving traffic to websites.”
If this is true and is widely known, then why do businesses spend money on it?
Perhaps the cost of reaching a wide audience appears cheap, using this approach, compared to say, print advertising. Young people are not tuned in to television, any more.
That was partially by design. Network television decided that their audience was senior citizens, and the underclass. Then, cable decided that their audience was also people of a certain age bracket .