As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
Those tankers everyone is celebrating aren’t coming here for crude oil.
They’re coming for diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline — refined products — and that distinction is everything.
US distillate inventories dropped another 2.1 million barrels just last week.
They’re already 3% below the five-year average. We are not flush. We are depleted.
Meanwhile US refined product exports hit 6.3 million barrels/day in January — up ~10% from a year ago, near record highs. Diesel led the increase. More going to Europe. Less staying here.
https://x.com/DittiePE/status/2044863192787005915
Very believable.
By the way, when I looked at exports vs imports a day or two ago, in response to an Art Burman graph, the Art Burman graph included both “crude oil + products,” so that is what I included in my comparison.
If a person looks strictly at crude oil, imports are 6.2 million bpd, versus exports of 4.0 million bpd for 2025.
US product exports in 2025 totaled 6.7 million bpd, but 3.1 million bpd of this was natural gas liquids. This left 3.6 million bpd for product exports, excluding NGLs. The single largest category of products exports was distillate (diesel) at 1.3 million bpd. Second was gasoline at 0.8 million bpd. Mexico was a biggest buyer of refined products.
Profits are falling for the second year in a row. One-third of Slovak companies are operating at a loss
“The Slovak economy is splitting into two worlds. Only a narrow elite is keeping it afloat
For the second year in a row, companies in Slovakia have been earning less and sales have practically stagnated, yet they have significantly increased wages. In fact, personnel costs jumped by five percent in 2025, which is faster than both inflation and sales growth. This discrepancy suggests that companies are beginning to eat into their profitability to retain employees, which could have serious consequences for their future stability.
At the same time, the Slovak economy consists of two parallel worlds. On one side stands a narrow, profitable elite that keeps the overall numbers afloat; on the other, tens of thousands of small firms teetering on the brink of survival or operating at a loss.
This is indicated by the latest data from the Finstat portal based on evaluations of companies that have already published their financial results. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Slovak economy is not driven by the average, but by a few major players and an increasingly narrow profitable elite.”
https://www.trend.sk/ekonomika/zisky-padaju-druhy-rok-po-sebe-tretina-slovenskych-firiem-je-v-strate?itm_modul=react_trend_topbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=1&itm_cb_position=top_main_1
I know that there have been articles about China having problems with many companies having falling profits. It is having a difficult time getting people to afford what they are making.
I expect that that is what is happening in Slovakia, also. The problem is that energy products cost too much, relative to wages. Raising wages of workers with lower wages would tend to help this problem. But, as you say, it drives out the small businesses. A few profitable elite seem to win.
I have heard that Uber drivers are having a hard time coping with the higher oil prices in this country, too.
Hygiene problems with rising poverty
France to Reimburse Costs for Reusable Menstrual Products
France will reimburse the costs for women under 26 and those living in poverty.
“A survey conducted last November among a sample of 4,000 women in France showed that one in ten uses alternatives such as torn clothing instead of regular menstrual products due to a limited budget, according to the French charity Dons Solidaires.”
https://www.sme.sk/svet/c/francuzsko-bude-preplacat-naklady-na-opakovane-pouzitelne-menstruacne-kalisky-a-spodnu-bielizen
Scot Bessent threatens China banks with secondary sanctions if they continue to purchase Iranian oil. This is the new financial blockade that is the sister of the physical blockade. This is similar to what was done with Russia. It creates motive to move away from dollar as it can be frozen. This would basically mean the end of Chinese imports as the USA has no currency to pay for goods. I suppose other nations might exchange currency for dollars that could be used to purchase Chinese goods. This would be similar to the EU stopping buying Russian oil. The USA would stop buying Chinese goods. At this point it’s just a warning. I don’t think China will stop buying Iranian oil.
While China is moving away from the dollar but they are deeply involved with it. Tarrifs have hurt the Chinese economy badly. Real estate is crashing down 30 percent in Shanghai and Shenzhen with many businesses closing. People are not going out and eating at home to save money the food industry is hit very hard. Ending trade with the USA would be catastrophic for both nations. These sort of decisions seem to be being made. EU stopping Russian energy import. Closing the strait of Hormuz. Ending USA trade with China would be similar. One wonders how much of this is created for the Trump XI talks upcoming.. it is interesting. I’m sure China would love to stop using the dollar but right now that would be unthinkable. Ditto for no Chinese goods for USA. USA wants China to stop buying Iranian oil very badly and seems willing to risk unthinkable consequences. The discussion refers to this as “uncoupling USA and Chinese economy” as usual I think that terminology does not communicate the destruction of functionality that would entail. Parts and materials for agriculture comes to mind on top of fertilizer supply issues from strait closure.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=USWIF6v6xgY&pp=ygUjQmVzZW50IHNhbmN0aW9uIGNoaW5hIGp1c3QgZ290YnVnbHk%3D
If the uncoupling needs to happen it might as well happen now. I do not understand the main thesis of this post. How much of China’s exports are towards the USA? 30%? who needs what? US industries are largely assembly operations. and if the war goes physical how long can the US last? It will have to go nuclear but a lot of people in Washington are against.
>> How much of China’s exports are towards the USA? 30%?
I don’t recall the exact number, but the fraction of China’s exports that goes to the USA is much much smaller than that. More like 8-9%% now. It’s been falling rapidly in recent years.
I guess I rest my case?
Source?
Export Value (China to U.S.): In 2023, Chinese exports to the U.S. were valued at roughly US$501 billion, representing 14.83% of its total exports. This was 2023 . And now .
” Shipments to the United States, China’s largest trading part ..
Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/130251905.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Sorry , exports to USA fell by 26.5 % this year . Read the link .
so current exports from China to USA about 11% of total and probably falling.
With regard to the hypothetical subject of decoupling, there is also the issue of astronomically high foreign ownership of manufacturing in China. China was built out as a plantation economy for globalists.
I didn’t realize that.
https://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/
This says 11%. AI gave me 8-9% for 2025. But the above cites these sources:
Research Sources:
Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook Country Profiles, Central Intelligence Agency. Accessed on February 13, 2026
China Trade Directory, Database with China and Taiwan Manufacturers. Accessed on February 13, 2026
Forbes 2021 Global 2000 rankings, The World’s Biggest Public Companies. Accessed on February 13, 2026
G.T. Internet Information Co., Ltd., Taiwan & China Products Online. Accessed on February 13, 2026
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity). Accessed on February 13, 2026
International Trade Centre, Trade Map. Accessed on February 13, 2026
Investopedia, Net Exports Definition. Accessed on February 13, 2026
Wikipedia, List of Companies of China. Accessed on February 13, 2026
What you say makes perfect sense. More sanctions against China leads to China figuring out new ways to do things that do not require the US dollar.
Chris Martenson interview. I think Gail explains things better but it’s interesting. Some connecting the dots and speculation. Nothing really new for OFW readers. One thing I found interesting is Martenson says it’s a steady half a million barrels a day through the strait. So whether called open or closed the reality is it’s closed. That’s about 7 percent of normal more or less. Some ads in video and you have to scroll not skip.
https://youtu.be/ZJJ3dd5u4U4?si=IBOcHTsFhMF2j7us
I’m not sure I am saying the same thing. Two weeks until a huge oil price spike. That could be, but TPTB will do all they can to prevent that from happening or staying around long. TPTB will put in place travel restrictions to keep down prices, if they need to. They will implement work at home orders. They want people to feel secure, whatever is going on in the world.
Good day everyone. I would like to know if there are any viable answer to the rising rates of US Treasuries
1. There instances (lately) that US Government actually outright buy their own Treasuries.
2. Overseas buyers like Cayman Islands and Belgium are perhaps known to be the backdoor channel for US Government to buy their own debts.
So, to keep the interest rates low, why don’t they just keep on buying through the backdoor?
Interest rates aren’t rising on US treasuries. They are in the exact same place they have been since 2022. Go look at the chart. It’s literally been moving sideways for 4 straight years.
Short term interest rates were pretty close to zero before 2022. Trump would like them that low again, I imagine.
The Fed’s overnight rate was close to zero back in 2022. If you look at T-bills. There rates in the last few months of 2022 say Oct, Nov, and Dec. You will see rates have gone nowhere in almost 4 years.
Rates have basically gone sideways since late 2022.
Had the run up in rates due to the COVID supply shock. Nothing since.
I imagine there are limits regarding the quantity that the Cayman Islands and Belgium can buy. If the Federal Reserve buys them outright, it can solve problems quickly.
They can buy as much as they want, technically, but they try to balance that with maintaining the relative fiat value of the dollar, i.e. don’t abuse it too much so that it remains a preferred medium of exchange and international bank reserves. If foreign central banks and investors lose faith in Treasurys and the USD, they stop buying Treasurys and accepting USD for goods at previous prices, and all the future printing-induced inflation is contained within the USA instead of spread across all holders and USD-accepting parties.
1. The Fed never buys Treasuries outright, if by outright you mean directly from the Treasury. The Fed only buys on the secondary market. By the US Government I’m assuming you mean the Fed (which, frankly, is a private institution under governmental cover) and that you’re not talking about the Treasury’s buyback program.
2. You’re referring to the conspiracy theory that after the Fed started tightening, it started secretly buying primary market Treasuries presumably using Cayman hedge funds as shell companies in order to fill the vacuum. Three quarters of the world’s hedge funds are based in Cayman. The conspiracy theory presumably got legs because it was discovered that over a trillion worth of purchases were not captured by Treasury data. The official narrative has an explanation for that, and beyond that, the larger narrative is that when the Fed tightened, the highly leveraged Treasury basis trade — a carry trade — exploded because of the resulting volatility that widened spreads between cash Treasuries (primary market Treasuries issued by the Treasury) and Treasury futures, which I didn’t know existed. Welcome to the Casino reante. I’m satisfied with the official explanation but YMMV. At any rate the Treasury basis trade has been around for a few decades.
Armstrong’s take on why Iran is winning and will win!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/when-nuclear-war-is-all-we-have-left/
We are in a war of attrition. Iran will win. Or China will win, as Iran also needs China’s help, in my view.
Chinese nuclear power. This is a great solution for New Zealand and Australia and Mexico.
The issue that the video doesn’t talk about is the uranium issue. We don’t have enough uranium, especially in the West. If we don’t have enough sulfur (related to the oil outages in the Middle East, and the loss of sulfur that is removed from oil during refining), that will make the uranium shortage even worse because sulfur is used in some (most, all (?)) extraction methods.
China is working on a way to use thorium, as a partial or full substitute for uranium. If that can be done at scale, it will be helpful. But the US doesn’t mine thorium either.
Building these reactors requires lots of fossil fuels, both for building and maintenance. We are increasingly short of fossil fuels.
The video claims China will provide the Uranium fuel.
I didn’t watch the whole video. Will China provide all the sulfur needed to extract the uranium? Or are they making uranium with breeder reactors?
it is just a brief gee-wiz video
You can not make uranium with breeders. Uranium 238, which burns in reactors if doped sufficiently with fissile isotopes. Breeders are for making said fissile isotopes, 239Pu (it is possible that you can make 233U from thorium, but IMHO it is already produced in a thorium regular reactor).
Henry Paulson Says US Should Prepare for a ‘Vicious’ Bond Crash – BBG, 4/16/26
Conspicuous in its timing, IMO.
“Why am I reading this now?”
https://x.com/LukeGromen/status/2044835591787794855/photo/1
“Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries.”
Without enough demand for Treasuries,interest rates would significantly rise. Borrowings are now skewed short, so short term as well as long term rates would rise.
The plan is always to print, currency destruction be damned. It’s simply a property or feature of the system as designed. If you don’t print, you don’t extract unearned wealth, and bankers are nothing if not greedy and unprincipled.
As I’ve enumerated to you before, the plan hasn’t always been currency destruction.
Bankers, in their personal capacity, are elite savers. Savers lose with inflation unless their nominal incomes exceed the inflation rate. Inflation depresses lending beyond a certain threshold because consumer income doesn’t keep up with inflation and, by extension, depresses the incomes of elite savers.
Deflation, OTOH, benefits the real value of savings, thereby benefitting elite savers most of all.
Now that you know that, which is the preferred option of the Elites?
>> As I’ve enumerated to you before […] Bankers, in their personal capacity, are elite savers. […] Now that you know that […]
It’s always something inane with you, isn’t it?
The rich don’t hold cash as a general rule, with some caveats for short-term holdings by active investors who expect a dip in asset prices. They hold assets whose prices rise with inflation. Hence your nonsensical argument about them being beneficiaries of monetary deflation is just that.
And now I will try to be better about ignoring the ignorati.
Every time I correct you on economic matters you go dunning kruger if you respond at all. And you almost always make it clear that you don’t know the differences between notional and/or nominal value and real value.
Asset values during bubbles are notional. The values are only realized when CASHED out.
The Elites — not the rich, ivan, the Elites — generally hold whatever they should be holding at any given time. That’s what makes them Elites.
If Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a record amount of cash right now — about 33% — and only because Buffett is now in semi-retirement along with the fact that BH is managing OTHER peoples’ money who have conventional minds like yourself, then you can know that Buffett himself is holding a hell of a lot higher percentage in cash and cash equivalents right now. And he’s about as good a public analog to an Elite as we can find.
You run along now while pretending that I’m too far beneath you for you to respond again.
the central bank is only interested in one thing avoiding deflation just look at what Ben bernanke was saying in his papers to avoid deflation at any cost surely you know that or are you living under a rock
Ben Bernanke wasn’t facing the absolute limits to growth of the civilization. We thought he might be at the time but he wasn’t. He was basing that statement on how to avoid a depression that would have cascaded into bringing about the absolute limits to growth, which was all of our concerns. But as it was there turned out to be a viable unconventional oil bubble waiting in the wings whereas now we are seven years past peak total oil liquids on the fitted curve and suddenly looking down the barrel of a carefully engineered oil supply collapse that seeks to radically restructure civilization at a lower level so that it doesn’t collapse chaotically altogether.
Why do so many people think that diminishing returns doesn’t apply to printing relative to deflation? It’s just a bias, adonis, because it’s all that we’ve seen to this point.
The Central Bank is interested in avoiding the collapse of civilization above all because central bankers are people. If deflation serves that purpose better than hyperinflation then deflation it is, right? And I’ve made the argument that at this point in history, deflation serves it better, especially so because of the parallel petrodollar genius of the new stablecoins public currency that foreign currencies can collapse into, thus acting as a stabilizer for the deflationary spiral.
ivan maybe part of the problem is that when I call Elites savers I’m not talking about piggy banks. I’m not talking about savings accounts. I’m using savers in the financial sense. The balance sheet sense; net savers, because Elites also hold plenty of revolving debts for practical and financial purposes.
What do smart people with unnecessary illiquid assets at the top of asset bubbles? They sell them in order to buy again at the bottom.
Your “because printing’ ideological belief is just a cynical product of Extend and Pretend. Extend and Pretend is over if you hadn’t noticed.
And you talk about currency destruction facilitating banker wealth extraction. Currency destruction destroys everybody’s wealth and most of all people with the highest nominal wealth because there’s more to destroy. You made the same thinking mistake that Watkins made when talking about how ‘degrowth’ politics would have prepared us for this crisis. This crisis wouldn’t have happened. In fact the ‘degrowth’ politics would have caused its own existential crisis because civilization has to grow. Watkins never learned the civilizational fundamentals. If he’s gonna blog he needs to stay in his lane. You both are being mechanical because you don’t know how to feel because you didn’t put the wide-ranging work in from which feel emerges, whether that feel be a passive feel that can observe and confirm others actively feeling or whether that feel be the active, final participation that discovers and creates.
I’ve explained why they can’t let the petrodollar collapse. There would be no oil because it is the global oil proxy. Collapse the real value of the proxy and you collapse the real value of oil because it becomes unobtanium like dog recently said and like Norm has often reminded us. (Norm?) Petrodollar deflation maximizes the real value that purchases oil even though the deflation collapses the private Federal Reserve Note money supply (but that’s what stablecoins are for, laundering the collapse of foreign currencies into a parallel public petrodollar dollar that seeks to offset the Federal Reserve Note’s money supply collapse). You don’t have a counterargument for the deflation rationale that counters your view, and you don’t care that you don’t have one. You just care that 99pc of people hold your view lol. That’s selfishness. Phoniness. Weakness. I never believe something that isn’t based. Based in the best argument. To do otherwise is just self-loathing. If you can’t tell what the best argument is, that’s okay, that’s life. Try to find out or don’t, but faking it will get you exposed. Not that you seem to care about that either. Easy street huh?
Only reason there would be no buyers of treasuries or not enough buyers would be lack of dollars available. If you don’t have dollars you can’t buy treasuries.
If say China didn’t receive, or had no surplus of dollars accumulated through a trade surplus. They wouldn’t have the dollars to buy treasury debt. If more dollars were leaving China than coming into China they wouldn’t have any means to buy treasury debt.
If China wasn’t exporting everything under the sun there would be no dollar surplus. When China’s energy supply shrinks. Which eventually it will. So will their exports and dollar surplus. They will eventually have to sell all their treasury holdings.
De~dollarization.
China’s customers will be going away. Lack of energy in Europe means less demand for Chinese made goods. If Europe demand goes down by half I’m pretty sure China will have to sell some treasuries.
I understand now how you use the dedollarization term differently from everyone else. It’s like it’s a nominal proxy term for deflation: dedollarization as fewer dollars to go round. I like it a whole lot because it reclaims structuralism from the political.
Within the context of a deflating dollar regime due to the Everything Bubble collapse, consider the consequences of the revolutionary new global market for decentralized access to foreign currency Treasury purchases known as stablecoins. Redollarization with public money as private money (FRN) dedollarizes. Extrapolate out the current stablecoin transaction statistics in countries like VZ, Turkey, and Iran across probably the whole world, and multiply that share of stablecoin transactions several times over. You take the Red Pill and you see how deep the rabbit hole goes. Everyone and his uncle becoming an arbitrageur doing the forex hustle the minute the measly little paycheck comes in, so as to avoid losing out to domestic currency high to hyper inflation. Which slows down the pace of the Red Queen Effect of the domestic currency inflations.
The Hand has risen to the occasion.
The bestest and greatest FIFA world cup 2026 .
” The United States is so toxic on the world stage right now that it can’t fill hotels or sell World Cup tickets.
Let that land.
FIFA projected $30.5 billion in economic impact from millions of international visitors.
That demand never showed up.
Hotels in Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Philadelphia and San Francisco have slashed match-day rates by a third from their peak.
FIFA has cancelled tens of thousands of reserved rooms across all 16 host cities.
Some hotels report cancellation rates above 95%.
The reasons aren’t hard to find. Anti-American sentiment. Fear of border crossings. The Iran war driving up oil prices and airfares. And tickets priced into the stratosphere, with finals seats hitting $10,990 a pop.
Industry executives are now openly blaming the Trump administration for the shortfall.
Tourism economists say the Iran war made an already bad sentiment problem worse.
Empty stadiums are now a real possibility.
It happened at the Club World Cup last summer.
It could happen again, on American soil, at the biggest sporting event on the planet.
The White House says this will be “the greatest World Cup ever.”
The market disagrees.
Question : What if it is cancelled because there is no jet fuel .
Canceling because not enough people bought tickets and air fare at exorbitant prices is less embarrassing.
This is normal. The US image is fairly toxic and the only people who would come (the Europeans) have also little money. Even in Europe it is hard to find a US lover nowadays. Maybe just the Israelis and Gulf kings should come as payback for all those donated bombs. It will be another step down the global decline of the US brand.
Will there be in Olympics in 2028 ? I say ‘no ‘ . During the Covid crisis I had said that it was the end of mega events . FIFA 2022 was the last one .
You might be right. These big events with a lot of long distance travel no longer make sense.
I seriously doubt it
Remember the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which were actually held in 2021?
The interesting thing is that many of the events—particularly the indoor ones, were held without a live audience, meaning with no spectators. The reason given for this was that COVID-19 made it too dangerous for large crowds to assemble.
However, there is an awful lot of money invested in the Olympics including in sponsorship, advertising, and broadcasting rights, so cancelling the games was never on the table.
This is likely to be the case in 2028, even if the tourists and sports fans stay away. As long as the competitors, the officials, and the broadcasters are there, and World War III is not officially declared, the Olympic Games will go ahead in some form.
Holding the games without an audience will hold the quantity of jet fuel consumed down.
Don’t count on a solution soon:
Zerohedge is reporting:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hegseth-vows-hormuz-blockade-continue-long-it-takes-ships-now-subject-search-outright
Oil Jumps As Report On 6-Month Iran Deal Timeline Crushes Ceasefire Hopes, Hormuz Still Locked Down
Gulf, European officials See Needing 6 Months for Iran deal: BBG, Oil Spikes
A big headline out of Bloomberg has sent oil prices higher:
Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter.
The leaders want the vital Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis may develop if that doesn’t happen by next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.
But important caveats remain: who are these “some” Gulf and “European leaders” – the latter who have remained far to the sidelines during this crisis, but who are yes still suffering the effects of the ultra-risky Operation Epic Fury Iran war gambit by Trump. Spike in crude…
BREAKING; VISUAL CONFIRMATION: IRAN HAS SHIPPED OUT NINE MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL FROM FLOATING STORAGE IN THE GULF OF OMAN SINCE THE US BLOCKADE WENT INTO EFFECT ON 2026-04-13 AT 14:00 UTC
ANOTHER TWO MILLION BARRELS DEPARTED ON 2026-04-12
Also, Iranian tankers are still exiting via the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman to await further instructions. We count three that did just that in the past couple of days.
the 9 million barrels shipped out since the blockade started on April 13, 2026 at 14:00 UTC, plus ~2 million barrels from April 12 were pre-loaded floating storage already positioned in the Gulf of Oman—which is inside the US enforcement zone~none of the Iranian oil from those tankers made it through the Strait of Hormuz in a way that breached the US blockade or reached export destinations beyond it.
You can believe tanker trackers or you can believe CENTCOM ( Empire of Lies ) . Take a card .
In the meanwhile the 10 day ceasefire in Lebanon is useless and the also the meeting in Israel . Any talks without Hezboullah are an eyewash .
Pakistani media — yesterday’s talk between Gen Munir and Iran did not go well . Munir got a dressing down . Iran said nuclear enrichment , Lebanon , Hormusz , missiles , sanctions relief , defreezing of assets , removal of bases etc is total package . The package or nothing . Oh yes , they said send in the land invasion, we are waiting . Munir is now stuck . While he was receiving accolades , he has now to transmit this message to Washington . Also what changed is China now coming out in the support of Teheran . Munir is a Washington lackey but without China there is no Pakistan . Karakorum highway , Galwan port and all the jets and ammo that China provided which won them the skirmish in Kashmir last year . Understand the Pakistan army is IndiaCentric . They will ditch anybody and everybody if it will harm India . USA does not matter , China does . He is in the hot seat .
https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2044749256276189646
Again Pakistan media — he landed in Teheran in Military uniform and command stick but at the talks he was in civilian uniform and his body language on exit from the talks showed dejection .
Thanks!
Thus, blockade is very leaky. CENTCOM is not to be believed. China plays a bigger role than most expect.
The Epstein Nostra plutocracy is taking over Argentine Patagonia , the wig wearer clown president is another manufactured product fed to the barnyard goyims ..
The planned looting: a drained Patagonia as a refuge for the world’s rich
In Bariloche, the dialogue-friendly governor Alberto Weretilneck advanced the delivery of mining projects before changes to the glacier law. He also promotes the transfer of land to capital from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates which, together with Lewis, are advancing the construction of their private bunkers.
April 16, 2026 | 11:44
The Milei administration took another step in its legal framework for the looting of Argentina and its natural resources. Changes to the glacier law were approved so that companies like Glencore, Barrick Gold, McEwen, and Rio Tinto can advance projects where, until last Wednesday, they could not.
The province of Río Negro had granted prospecting permits to the company Tamar Mining (linked to capital from the State of Israel) in a glacier zone. Following a complaint filed by provincial deputy Magdalena Odarda, the dialogue-friendly governor, Alberto Weretilneck, removed from the official record the authorization that was still listed in the mining registry as of February this year.
The legal framework for looting is based on the foundation of fabricated legality: making legal what is not. Something similar is happening with the changes being pushed in the “Regime for the protection of national domain over property, possession, or tenancy of rural land (26,737)” related to the foreignization of land.
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British businessman Joe Lewis bought the 12,000 hectares of Lago Escondido in a border security zone in the 1990s through a network of front men led by the Van Ditmar family. Businessmen from the United Arab Emirates are now doing it through the Amaike trust, acquiring fields adjacent to Lewis’s and others with capital from Qatar.
In addition to Lago Escondido – the estancia of lawfare that had the current Minister of Justice, Juan Bautista Mahíques, as a guest – Lewis was also the owner of an airstrip sold to the same Emirati capital (Manzil SA).
“This is part of the foreignization process we have been denouncing for many years, partially halted with the passage of the land law but which has now intensified again. We see that Weretilneck is complicit in allowing the purchase of land by companies or individuals through intermediaries – companies with Argentine DNI – but they are defrauding the land law. These are void purchases because they used the figure of a front man, a mechanism still prohibited by law,” Odarda denounced in an interview with El Destape.
The legal framework for looting, with its parliamentary advance, was “celebrated” by the club of lawyers on Montevideo Street, a legal den for defenders of all the country’s dictatorships from 1930 onwards.
A refuge for magnates
The president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), was in Bariloche on February 23 of this year. He arrived with a delegation of 200 people, a private jet, and a fleet of helicopters. Total secrecy.
Emirati capital owns land on the Foyel River (west of National Route 40), at Estancia Las Marías with 2,000 hectares; they also own a 19,400-hectare hunting ground – the territory where the conflict with Soledad Cayunao took place – on Cerro Carreras; plus another 30,000 hectares on the Atlantic coast of Río Negro province, where the airport formerly belonging to Lewis is located.
“The president of the United Arab Emirates arrived just when Iran attacked US installations in that country. Why did Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan come? Did he come to buy land? Did he return at some point or is he still here? We don’t know. All these magnates are building high-security buildings in Patagonia, like Lewis, who also built a bunker. On the property owned by the Qataris, there is also a bunker,” Odarda stated.
Patagonia as a refuge for foreign capital in an increasingly warlike global scenario? That’s why they want it drained of population. This idea of draining (expulsion of its native population sustained since the genocide of indigenous peoples in the 19th century) is what motivated businessman Hugo Barabucci to initiate a criminal complaint against Ingrid Soledad Cayunao, accused of keeping part of a field located in the Alto Río Chubut area. During the judicial process, Barabucci himself admitted that he had acquired that portion of land through a donation from the United Arab Emirates.
Journalist Susana Lara had already denounced in December 2024 that those two million dollars had come from an account at the First Gulf Bank in Abu Dhabi (one of the seven emirates federated in the UAE) to an account at J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, New York branch.
Barabucci (alleged owner of a polo club in the Arab country) registered the field as his own through the Amaike trust. After the trial against Cayunao, which ended last Thursday with the acquittal of the accused, Odarda requested the Public Prosecutor’s Office to investigate the entry of those two million dollars as a possible crime of smuggling and money laundering.
“Lewis acted as the gateway for all this capital. Estancia Las Marías (United Arab Emirates) is adjacent to Lago Escondido. There is also capital from Qatar, to whom Weretilneck gave permission to set up three hydroelectric plants. These capitals come to Argentina to protect themselves,” Odarda concluded.
Weretilneck is also promoting the construction of a soccer stadium with Qatari funds. “Tomorrow I’m going with Weretilneck to see the Qatari ambassador about the stadium in Bariloche.” According to LaPolíticaOnLine, this WhatsApp message comes from private chats between Pablo Toviggino and Juan Pablo Beacon, the repentant figure from the AFA.
Fabricated legality and conflict of interest
The Bar Association on Montevideo Street, a legal den for defenders of all the country’s dictatorships from 1930 onwards, and an office for corporate lobbyists dedicated to planning the looting of the country, celebrated the changes to the glacier law by disseminating a statement.
“The incorporation of article 3 bis, which enshrines the application of the precautionary principle regarding glaciers, must be highlighted. Therefore, by virtue of this principle, all glaciers and periglacial landforms included in the National Glacier Inventory will be considered part of the protected object of the law until the competent authority verifies, based on technical-scientific studies, the absence of the hydrological functions provided for in article 1,” the statement reads.
This means that if the competent authority (of the provincial jurisdiction) referred to by “El Colegio de la calle Montevideo” considered that a glacier or periglacial landform is not relevant, it could request IANIGLA to remove it from the Inventory. A simple administrative note will suffice to advance against these natural resources for a mining project. The changes in the protection of glaciers and periglacial areas are another form of fabricated legality.
“The beneficiaries of this regulatory change are not abstract. They have names, locations, and backgrounds. They are the same companies that Enrique Lucero (Secretary of Mining) advised and/or whose boards he sat on, including the El Pachón project in San Juan, controlled by Glencore, probably the most evident case. A large-scale development, located in the high mountain range, whose viability has historically been conditioned by glacier regulations. The relaxation of the regime directly reduces that conditioning,” reads the criminal complaint for incompatibility in the exercise of public function against Lucero filed by the Association of Environmental Lawyers.
A similar complaint corresponded to Flavia Royón (former FdT Energy Secretary, former LLA Mining Secretary for two months) and current senator for Salta, also for her ties with companies in the sector.
Lucero was part of the Marval, O’Farrell & Mairal law firm. He also advised key mining companies, including Xstrata, AngloGold Ashanti, Rio Tinto, Vale, Cameco Corporation, Silver Wheaton, Hochschild Mining plc, Denison Mines, Andean Resources, Pan American Silver, and Newmont. In total, the Elites Observatory (CITRA-UMET-Conicet) found that the Mining Secretary had 37 corporate ties with companies in the sector.
To somewhat disguise the strong conflict of interest, on May 14 of last year, the Ministry of Economy published Resolution 630/2025, by which Lucero excluded himself from participating in any administrative decision related to the company Glencore. Nevertheless, the official participated in the Senate committee plenary to argue in favor of the changes to the glacier law, a regulatory modification that bore the name of Glencore, among other companies.
“The paralysis and dismantling of the public administration, in parallel with the implementation of an aggressive economic deregulation policy and the process of occupation of management areas by officials directly linked to private companies, entails a great risk: the advancement of private interests over deliberately weakened areas of government administration that have significant relevance in guiding public policy,” described the Elites Observatory in its report number 12 published in November 2024.
The fire that devastates everything
The legal framework for looting also includes changes to the fire management law, included in the omnibus initiative called “Inviolability of Private Property.” According to a denunciation by Río Negro senator Martín Soria (Unión por la Patria), the Milei administration applied a 70% cut in the 2026 Budget for policies related to fire management compared to the extended 2023 Budget.
“Between 2025 and 2026, more than 200,000 hectares were devastated by fire,” Soria denounced last week, facing an unmoved Federico Sturzenegger, minister of state destruction.
It is no exaggeration to say the scenario is devastating. The Paraná Ecologist Forum Association (Sergio Daniel Verzeñassi) and the Argentine Association of Jurists (Claudia Viviana Rocca) filed a precautionary measure with the Supreme Court of Justice, under the sponsorship of Eduardo Barcesat, for the State to begin acting preventively in the face of the systematic advance of fires in Patagonia and for glaciers to be declared “subjects of rights.”
“The occurrence and repetition of fires in such areas, or their imminent threat, reinforces the state’s duty of prevention, control, monitoring, restoration, and non-regression, and makes a structural judicial approach with goals, indicators, and follow-up particularly appropriate, preventing protection from being reduced to reactive or merely declaratory responses,” reads the text of the precautionary measure.
The measure was filed with the Supreme Court because the defendants include, in addition to the national state, the Patagonian provinces, the epicenter of the latest major fires and the jurisdictions that are home to a large part of the nearly 17,000 glaciers in the Desert Areas.
The proliferation of fires is not isolated but is part of a systematic, repeated phenomenon aggravated by the climate crisis (massive droughts and water stress). As of February 1 of this year, 45,000 hectares had been devastated by fire in Chubut; from November 2025 to mid-January, according to the Public Fire Management Service, action was taken on 66 fire outbreaks in different areas of Río Negro province.
The National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA), for the period September 2025-January 2026, detailed that “48 fires larger than 500 hectares occurred, which together affected an approximate area of 115,000 hectares,” only in the province of La Pampa.
The precautionary measure aims for “from now on to act on the prevention paradigm, which obliges the development of avoidance mechanisms and participation in public policies that prevent the advancement of droughts and catastrophes to which humanity will be exposed if States do not comply with the obligations assumed at international conferences on climate change.”
The lawsuit, promoted by the Paraná Ecologist Forum Association (Sergio Daniel Verzeñassi) and the Argentine Association of Jurists (Claudia Viviana Rocca), under the sponsorship of Barcesat, also aims to declare the glaciers and the periglacial environment of the Argentine Republic as subjects of rights, holders of autonomous legal protection, with the right to their existence, preservation, conservation, regeneration, natural evolution, and functional continuity as essential components of the biosphere, the climate system, and the hydrological cycle, according to art. 41 of the National Constitution, Law 25.675, the Escazú Agreement, the American Convention on Human Rights, and applicable Inter-American jurisprudence.”
“The defendants are immediately ordered to refrain from executing, authorizing, or permitting acts, omissions, activities, or administrative or legislative decisions that imply degradation, reduced protection, alteration, or impairment of the functional integrity of glaciers and the periglacial environment, in compliance with the principles of prevention, precaution, and environmental non-regression,” reads the text of the precautionary measure filed last April 8, the same day that the Chamber of Deputies advanced against the glacier law and the Senate began discussing changes to the land and fire management laws.
Patagonia is down close to the South Pole. There is no wonder it has been left alone, so far. But now the article says:
“The Milei administration took another step in its legal framework for the looting of Argentina and its natural resources. Changes to the glacier law were approved so that companies like Glencore, Barrick Gold, McEwen, and Rio Tinto can advance projects where, until last Wednesday, they could not.”
This is exactly what a person would expect. As the nearby easy to obtain resources become depleted, the corporations of the world look for places that have been overlooked. They go to the far corners of the earth, and Patagonia is quite far.
This is of course all true. Poor Argentina.
In this must watch 35 minute video between Dennis Kucinich and The Duran Boys. He lays out the oncoming freight train heading towards the US Empire.
This is the outline given:
0:00:00 Introduction & Guest Welcome — Dennis Kucinich
0:01:25 Is the Iran War Another Unwinnable War?
0:02:56 Lessons from Vietnam, Serbia & Iraq
0:04:14 A War of Choice Pushed by Netanyahu & Israeli Interests
0:05:34 How Does Israel Have Such Influence Over Washington?
0:06:44 AIPAC, Congressional Funding & the Pro-Israel Majority
0:08:50 Practical Effects: War Costs, Budget Deficit & Inflation
0:11:39 Exhausted Tomahawk Stockpiles & the $200 Billion Request
0:13:27 Militarizing the Budget = Militarizing Society
0:15:00 Why Is There So Little Public Opposition to This War?
0:17:10 Campus Suppression of Dissent & the No Kings Protests
0:19:39 Can Iran Be Defeated? Why This Is a Fantasy
0:21:24 Off-Ramps: Comparing to Vietnam Era Diplomacy & Great Power Relations
0:22:24 The Unipolar World Illusion & Trump’s Megalomaniacal Worldview
0:24:44 Petrodollar Decline, BRICS & America Isolating Itself
0:27:19 Military Keynesianism: Does War Actually Create Jobs?
0:29:55 America Must Change Its Role — Nation Among Nations
0:32:09 Will This War Be the Catalyst for Change?
0:33:18 The Human Cost: Children Killed, Gaza, Lebanon & Iran
0:35:25 Closing Remarks & Where to Find Dennis Kucinich
Kucinich, Gabbard’s greatest political mentor and archetypal national socialist. In 2017 I believe it was he wrote a paper on ending the Fed.
National socialist would be a good way of describing Dennis if Hitler’s people hadn’t ruined the brand by dressing up in uniforms and shouting things like “Achtung! Frisch gestrichen!” “Achtung! Ein Zug fährt ein!” and “Achtung! Alles ist kaputt!”
I can’t imagine Dennis marching around in jackboots shouting “Achtung!” Perhaps we might recast him as a social nationalist.
I subscribe to Dennis’s Substack and he comes across as a bleeding-heart anti-war extremist. In 2020, he revealed to Rolling Stone that “I did 341 speeches [on the floor of congress] against the Iraq war,” and “I gave 155 speeches against war with Iran.”
On the other hand, Dennis has, until recently, been much more of a defender of Trump than a critic, blaming “the Deep State”, the “Military Industrial Complex” and AIPAC for exerting undue influence. That has changed bigly this year, of course. It’s getting harder and harder to defend Trump now that he is behaving in the classic manner of Mr. Punch.
You sure know how to get me high Tim. And you’re a genius: all that the Hand has to do to market Inverted Perestroika is to invert national socialism to social nationalism and everyone will be none the wiser. Neo-nazi true (conservative) left under America First cover. Even the right wing dissidents will never make the connection between social and socialism because nationalism will be all they can see. And vice versa for the left. When you’re bargaining with a post- Big Nuclear Scare world, you’ll grasp at any straw you can get your hands on.
I’d say ole Dennis was rather looking the part in that interview too.
Great minds think alike, Renate!
Some of the time, at least.
Someone famously said long ago, “When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.” (Often attributed to Sinclair Lewis)
However, not so many people have heard of this one:
“The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism, but under the name of liberalism they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program until one day America will be a socialist nation without ever knowing how it happened.”
— Norman Thomas (no relation to our Norman)
Thomas (November 20, 1884 – December 19, 1968) was an American Presbyterian minister, political activist, and perennial candidate for president. He achieved fame as a socialist and pacifist, and was the Socialist Party of America’s candidate for president in six consecutive elections between 1928 and 1948.
I wonder how many Americans alive today have even heard his name.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Thomas
Ravi, India is saved.. Hooray !
https://youtu.be/gdmBRbSqrs4
The title of this video is, “Russia Ready to Supply ‘As Much Energy as India Wants’.”
I haven’t listened to the whole video, but any change takes time. If Russia supplies more LNG and oil to India, it will need to further cut off Europe. I wouldn’t hold my breath that this will happen quickly, or that the quantity supplied will be at a price that most Indians can truly afford. It may be a little helpful, but don’t count on a miracle.
Bravo…
Will be closed for as long as it takes…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hegseth-vows-hormuz-blockade-continue-long-it-takes-ships-now-subject-search-outright
If it is even real news
Yeah, but Trump expects just a week or two, those Iranians got nuttin.
Maybe, “Congrass”will vote and approve the war..that will be entertaining.
We had no choice, the Iranians were about to sneak attack the US, Jared told me so from his sleepover pal BeeBee
When there is major concern about real shortages, what used to be considered international law goes out the window.
as ive been saying for years—-
democracy is the child of plenty…
poverty makes it an orphan and it starves to death…
Depends on your definition of poverty. Hunter Gatherer and nomadic tribes, or tribes with mixed nomadic/horticultural practices, have often shown egalitarian and participative systems of tribal decision making.
A civilization under strain with high conflict for resources, however, is guaranteed to never be egalitarian, as people don’t trust each other and would not make sacrifices for each other as you would for your family and tribe.
It’s enough to make you wonder if it’s all a cover for Saudi depletion.
Irans fields are not exactly a spring chicken either.
While the phenomena of massive amounts of contradictory information where you pick your poison is not new it is of a quantity of unseen proportion now. The exception is political. The attack dogs have been given a biscuit and told to sit. This includes the ultimate consumers of such emotional fentanyl. They will have their day in my opinion and boil that dust spec shall echo off the pillars of the universe and every whim they ever satiated for will be implemented in the cause of not MAGA I’ve never seen such a massive catapult created and every day the winch clicks back another click but with the devotees quiet waiting for the command. Only then will we see the face of what was created. .Only then will the purpose of MAGA be revealed . Not in the swing but in the counter swing. MAGA was a sham except for one thing. Preload for the catapult. In that function it demonstrates unreleased potential energy of a quantity and energy density not previously witnessed.
Why is war powers not actuated? Why are other fail-safes not actuated. Those things would indicate some degree of law function and justice. Those things would detract from the potential energy that is being created and stored. Justice is what prevents energy from accumulating in odd places and odd ways. It is sometimes refered to as law. Never perfect always necessary.
You get the ball rolling with the force. All that energy is stored via gravity as is slows uphill. Then you accelerate it as it rolls back. It’s the basic force multiplyer technique. Force 101. In a perfect world you just redirect the apponents force.that he created. It’s often not a perfect world. Force has mass and momentum. If you get in it’s way that’s that. But to discount gravity as a primary force is to lose. What is important is not the redirection but acknowledging gravity is the quintessential player. None of which seems applicable when your eating puree from a broken jaw but a three move checkmate only works if your have no skill or understanding.
Your strolling along in life. Then some creature “does you wrong” . They want to play. Do you want to play? Do you participate?
If you decline truly decline energetically it ends right there. I know that counters every western movie we ever watched. The declination has to be truthful energetically. Stop messing with me I will win is acceptance of the challenge. Starting preload that will destroy your new found apponent. Isagreement. Of course they want you to play.. getting you to agree is the start of the manipulation it’s part of the fun.b it may even be the funnest part.
Theres better things in life than this sort of excitement.
Allowing a opponent to destroy them self is not wrong. It’s not the nicest thing but it’s not wrong. Play or I destroy myself is also classic manipulation. If you desire that energy and cultivated it you are partners. Not opponents. You are participating. It’s very different than allowing the consequences of their actions to manifest and let the energy disapate without desire . If you do desire that energy that participant is essential. One hand clapping idoes not work. Will MAGA be allowed to disapate? Of course not. Trump and MAGA will be preserved in all eternity as the nemesis.
Is a opponent that creates the initial force a apponent if you desire that force as a tool? Of course not. That is why Trump has been so loved as a nemesis. Trump is the most beloved nemesis of all time. From the first day of the first term Trump was cultivated as a nemesis.That love is expressed as hate but it is something desired something loved..It is Trump that allows the new era politically that is occuring along with the new world physically.
A blind beggar with a blindfold could spot this preload. Perhaps better than most. 🙂
The attack dogs sit I the corner obedient with their biscuit. They are good
Boys only a occasional I told you so whine. They know the fox will be released soon and the boil that dustspec moment of our lives will be on in the stored energy release. Anticipation is the Hallmark of a good boy. Then everyone must participate. Declination is the gravest insult when boil that dust spec is chanted. Why is boil that dustspec chanted? Because they dig it.
My perspective is a extreme minority. I don’t see politics. I only see people who manipulate others into playing and those that wish to live their lives. I don’t differentiate. I decline all invitations to chant boil that dust spec. That is descied by the chanters as lack of justice but it is not. It is in fact the foundation of justice.
It is probably both depletion and a need for a high government level of taxes.
So, the US President Rump and their “partner in crime” started this sneak attack strike that has become an unending war …
Democrat Ro Khanna to introduce bill to stop US gasoline exports amid Iran war
Congressman says keeping gas supplies at home could lower costs for Americans amid price hikes sparked by war
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply,
With leadership like that, no worries..we are in good hands..So, does this mean Congress need not vote on Rumps sperm of the moment attack and ongoing escalation? The Constitution or rules says a vote within 60 days.
I looked to see what is happening with respect to gasoline production and exports.
Gasoline production is not obvious. This is weekly gasoline production. After 2020, refinery capacity dropped, so gasoline production has fallen. But it still seems to be in excess of what the US consumes.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFRPUS2&f=4
US exports of gasoline averaged 804,000 bpd in 2025. Of this amount, over half (446,000) went to Mexico. Most of the rest went to Central and South American countries.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EPM0F_EEX_mbblpd_a.htm
There were also some small imports of gasoline, amounting to 124,000 bpd in 2025. These came from Canada, Bahamas, and Netherlands, primarily.
US consumption of gasoline is down from the 2007 level. It was 8,906,000 bpd in 2025.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFUPUS2&f=A
To give this amount of exports and imports, US gasoline production must have averaged 9,586,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Banning exports of 804,000 bpd would give far more gasoline than the US could consume. It would badly hurt Mexico and other Southern neighbors.
Thanks Gail for the lookup…Making America Great…by screwing everyone else..it works for Joe 6 pak
It’s so exciting to be reliving the 1970s again
Oil price of $286 per HSBC CEO
https://sherwood.news/markets/hsbc-ceo-cost-of-oil-has-hit-as-much-as-usd286-per-barrel/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
The quote:
“What worries me is not the headlines. I mean, oil headline is above $100, $110. Realistically, if you are now trying to get oil from the Middle East, you may be paying $140, $150.
Realistically, if you try to get oil from the Red Sea, you are paying more than $30, $40 for shipping. Insurance costs, which used to be 25 basis points, is more like 5%, and war insurance has been scrapped — you’re paying 5% without even the war insurance component.
So the barrel of oil door to door or the barrel of refined oil door to door is way above the headline price of oil. The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka. This is not a country and an economy that can easily afford these kind of prices sustainably.”
Clickbait
Trump is walking a fine line. He keeps saying we are really close to a deal but in reality he is not. He is stalling as long as he can. You would think at some point the market would panic and sell.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/europe-jet-fuel-shortage-6-weeks-iea.html
Linked article says:
Europe could run out of jet fuel in 6 weeks, IEA chief tells AP
Needless to say, this could cause a major problem for summer tourism.
Australians could be urged to “work from home” as expert warns next fuel plan stage is ‘unavoidable’ after fire at Viva oil refinery
“Australia is on the brink of entering the next stage of the government’s emergency fuel plan, an expert has warned, which could include widespread calls for Australians to work from home.”
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/australians-could-be-urged-to-wfh-as-expert-warns-next-fuel-plan-stage-is-unavoidable-after-fire-at-viva-oil-refinery/news-story/fbbfb7ecf62c12dc2475b49c50fae87d
They obviously want woman to work at home with endless “Housewife shows” popularizing it.
The elders want lockdowns why because their ain’t much bau normal or economically viable oil supply left they bring in lockdowns or running the world with a massively reduced oil supply then it will last longer well that’s the theory the elders are going by personally I think we are going to have a Seneca Cliff occur which sends us back to the dark ages.And yes I agree with you women will revert back to the old ways.
Knowing the difference between us, regular people, and the Hand, makes all the “difference in the world”. We, regular wetware units, achieve 1, maybe 2 objectives with every productive action. The Hand (or whoever they are), achieve 4-5 or maybe even more objectives. Biological females, staying away from offices, manufacturing floors and (especially!) the roads will benefit the remaining Civilization immensely – just by not messing around and making things worse 😅. I’m not including Benevolent Hostess in my counts – they are special minority, of course.
Is the Hand at work ?
Australia
Mexico
Russia
https://mexicobusiness.news/oilandgas/news/fire-dos-bocas-fourth-safety-incident-three-week
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/74043
The second link describes another hit on Russia’s oil supply.
DRONES RUSSIA BELGOROD
Drones Hit Tuapse Refinery, Energy Sites in Russia, Officials Say
Drone strikes hit a refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region and energy infrastructure in Belgorod, with casualties and power outages reported.
This is from a news source in Ukraine. They are happy about this accomplishment.
Chevron executive says ‘people should try to drive less’ amid Iran war
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5832148-chevron-iran-war-gas-prices/
When an oil ex is saying drive less we obviously have a major supply problem. This is like McDonald’s CEO saying you should eat out less.
The world changes when there is not enough to go around, if old practices are followed.
If people will drive less, it will tend to hold prices down (a bit) and make the whole situation more bearable.
“I had the privilege of interviewing Robert Barnes this morning — hopefully the video will be posted on Counter Currents by Friday at the latest — and he provided shocking details of what is going on behind the scene at the White House. Donald Trump began exhibiting signs of early dementia in September 2025… He frequently confabulates, he routinely loses his temper and unleashes screaming rants, and he is incapable of doing critical thinking. According to Barnes, Trump’s senior White House staff are behaving like children with an abusive, drug-addled father… i.e., they walk on egg shells fearful of saying anything that might ignite Trump’s rage.
Trump genuinely believes that the US has vanquished Iran and he does not comprehend the massive economic damage that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is doing to the global economy. His declining mental state is dangerous because he is prone to make rash decisions based solely on his emotional state at the time.
JD Vance reportedly is working feverishly behind the scenes to arrange a new meeting with the Iranians in Islamabad. Iran is insisting that there must be a ceasefire between the Israelis and Hezbollah in Lebanon before another meeting with Vance. Late Wednesday night in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Security Council rejected the ceasefire and vowed to continue with its invasion of southern Lebanon.”?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/watch-what-trump-does-ignore-what
You have to wonder if TPTB want them demented. It is two for two, plus they tried with Hillary in 2016. Or if they have ways to accelerate the process.
“You have to wonder if TPTB want them demented.”
They do have a type.
If the final aim is to (gracefully and steadily, and not, for example, catastrophically abruptly) wind down global economy, then it does not matter, if talking heads in nominal high positions are demented or not (as long as those talking heads in nominal high positions are doing exactly what they are told to do…).
I wonder how many of the nearly dead members of CON-gress are dealing with some form of dementia? There was the viral videos of Mitch McConnell just freezing in place while he was escorted off camera.
There should be an upper age limit for elected politicians. I suggest 70 for men and 55 for women. It’s strange that women age faster than men but live longer.
It’s not:
https://www.prevention.com/health/a64125698/why-do-women-live-longer-study/
If Jiang Xueqin is to be believed, then a cooking war on Iran has beneficial effects for the US: with middle eastern oil off the market, they can sell theirs i.e. US and other American continent oil under US influence.
Also, US fracking has peaked last October, while in no01’s excellent substack you can see, 70-90% of all mineral and rare earth processing is now done in China, without which the US cannot produce any aluminium alloys (no cars, Planes etc), no rockets, no electronics, no radars…
Attacking Iran is apparently the only option left to put pressure on China, despite all the losses and damages the US has to take itself.
Also, it puts pressure on the European Union, which is not an ally to the US, increasingly.
Curt , I am tired . US exports a lot of refined products . I had posted Art Berman earlier and today he has comeout with the clarification again . There is no more crude to sell . The Permian basin has maxxed out .
” 12.7 mmb/d is crude + refined products–not oil
Crude exports were 5.2 mmb/d
About 1 mmb/d more than the 2026 average .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2044930579636871207
You also might like this video about all the tankers rushing to USA for loading . It is only panic , chaos and havoc .
100 tankers won’t save the economy .
Yay… we are saved. Ceasefire, double blockades so that no Iran oil will leave Iran. No bombings, no ships passing through SoH. Yes we are saved….
Stocks retracing back to all time highs soon.
I think the world has dropped a notch in “reality avoidance”
Iran produced 3.55 million b/d.
Domestic consumption is 1.8 million b/d.
That leaves 1.75 million b/d for crude exports.
Onshore storage available capacity is 80-90 million bbls.
Assuming no exports out, it will hit tank top in 45-51 days.
If it cuts production to 3 million b/d, it will hit tank top in 66-75 days.
The war of attrition .
I don’t know who needs to hear this but Saudi’s crude export numbers are worse than expectations.
Average in April so far is below ~4 million b/d.
Media says back to 7 mbpd .
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2044650962472898930/photo/1
Kuwait is — 0
Iraq — 88,000 barrels
Australia gets 100 million litres of Diesel from Brunei ans South Korea . Terrific . 👍
OMG . This is only good for two days . 😰
Meanwhile one of the two remaining Australian refinery is offline because of fire accident .
https://news.sky.com/story/major-blaze-breaks-out-at-australian-oil-refinery-as-nations-petrol-supplies-could-be-impacted-13532352
The direct air distance between Seoul, South Korea, and Sydney, Australia, is approximately 8,310 to 8,352 kilometres . Non-stop flights typically take around 10 to 11 hours to complete this journey.
The route spans from East Asia to the Southern Hemisphere, requiring a long-haul flight usually traveling over the Philippines and Indonesia.
So the PM flew 17,000 Km for 20-24 hrs to get 2 days worth of diesel and then has to do a press conference to announce ” we are saved ” . 🤣
My guess is that Australian refineries are operating below capacity because of the decline in Australian oil production. They can get along without this refinery producing 120,000 bpd. It will never be rebuilt.
Thanks for that. I keep seeing the 7 million barrels. That seems possible for the pipeline capacity but Yanbu can only load 3 million barrels per day
China looking into suspending solar equipment to the USA.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/china-weighs-curbs-exports-solar-manufacturing-equipment-us-2026-04-15/#:~:text=By%20Reuters,Sign%20up%20here.
This ban relates to the export of the equipment needed for the US to make the most effective solar panels. It will set back US efforts in that direction. I suppose it will also avoid the use of minerals that are in very short supply–even copper.
“Yanbu’s pumps can now receive seven million barrels of crude a day from the east, but its terminals cannot load that volume onto ships. Yanbu North is rated at 1.5 million bpd nominal. Yanbu South is rated at three million. The tested effective ceiling under wartime scheduling sits closer to four million — call it four-and-a-half on a day when every berth turns, every VLCC arrives on schedule, and nothing breaks. Argus Media and Maritime Executive put the gap between pipeline throughput and terminal capacity at 2.5 to 3.0 million barrels a day, which is the volume of Saudi crude that either stays in tank or never gets pumped.”
https://houseofsaud.com/bab-al-mandeb-saudi-yanbu-bypass/
”And so, the world is short around a fifth of its flow of oil and gas, along with much else (fertiliser, helium, sulphur, aluminium, etc.) aside. And this is not just any old oil. It is the high net energy stuff. So that, in energy terms the loss to the economy is far greater than 20 percent… a lot of the oil we are now left with is low net energy, and so economic activity will have to decline accordingly.” ?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/04/13/the-map-is-not-the-territory/?fbclid=IwY2xjawRNaSNleHRuA2FlbQIxMABzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEemCDXR_ng29IWNBWDmifTQpWsL0xY0OFsfFIN8qXs-IRxCQXPSDZ7k-5wXtE_aem_yXlM6KIgZ6D7sObWHFL2nQ
Can’t be bothered to read another Watkins article because you’ve seen one and you’ve seen them all but that quoted excerpt is the Big Nuclear Scare plandemic 2.0 structural psyop in a nutshell, with the front page headline reading: WORLD GOES FULL RETARD AND KILLS THE GOOSE THAT LAID THE GOLDEN EGG, CIVILIZATION COLLAPSES
what happened when the Liberals went full retard? Reactionary Conservatism.
what has now already mostly happened now that Reactionary Conservatism has gone full retard? REACTIONARY national socialism, the target politics.
All we’re waiting on now is the coup. The coup is the only possibility because the world can’t survive this situation until 2028. The 25th Amendment nor impeachment suffice. Those won’t produce a peace agreement the Iran side of the political theater have made it explicit that they will not budge on the demand that they will accept nothing less than a full-on America First Inverted Perestroika. That’s not a coincidence.
The truth is always simple at root, even in complex contexts. It just requires ferreting it out.
I have a problem with EROEI. It doesn’t include the cost of necessary government taxes to keep the whole system going, among other things. It makes the Middle Eastern oil look much more valuable than it really is.
The “system” seems to be taking down both Russia’s exported oil and the Middle East’s exported oil. This should be telling us something. Perhaps it is getting to the point that both Middle Eastern and Russian economies cannot work as they are currently structures. Somehow, the economies have too many inhabitants, relative to energy supplies, and the needs of the inhabitants for support.
Perhaps these systems might work, with fewer inhabitants, or ones living using less energy supplies. But the way they are structured today, they don’t work.
“If mainstream economics had switched to a better map, akin to Boulding’s ‘Spaceship Earth’ and Frederick Soddy’s energy-based economics, our political class might have been prepared to respond to the coming shock appropriately. But schooled in the fantasy that money can buy us anything we want (more or less immediately) they fail to understand that when the energy and food runs out, money becomes worthless.”
Watkins is a dinosaur.
New generation of highly-effective “mass-medicines” must be in the wings… Then blame everything on the “Slovakians”/Aliens from the nearby Andromeda galaxy.
Let’s just look at Watkins’ thinking in this excerpt I posted here, and that’s even ignoring both his completely unconstructive crying over 40 year old or whatever spilled milk and his ‘degrowth’ idealism.
He says that if we had only switched to (idealistic) ‘degrowth’ politics then “our political class might have been prepared to respond to the coming shock appropriately.” Yet if we had switched to ‘degrowth’ the whole point of that switch is to NOT have to respond to the coming catastrophic shock. He can’t think straight on a basic level, and presumably because he’s just being ideological and too busy STILL crying over spilled milk after all these years.
I agree that Watkins is way off on this one.
I notice that one comment says, regarding the low exports:
“Its due to the limited capacity of the terminals in Yanbu.”
I was not aware of this . It gives adavaantage to Teheran in the war of attrition .
” JASK AND FLOAT IN THE SHADOWS
Iran has spent more than a decade preparing for precisely this “Doomsday” scenario at Hormuz. They have invested billions of dollars to ensure that if the United States or they themselves close the main gate, they have a back door that maintains the flow of cash to Tehran and the flow of energy to Beijing.
The escape plan is divided into Iran’s physical infrastructure outside the Gulf and the naval tactics of the shadow fleet supported by China.
1. The Back Door: The Goreh-Jask Pipeline (The “Anti-Hormuz”)
Iran does not need to cross the Strait of Hormuz to export a vital part of its oil.
• Infrastructure: In 2021, Iran inaugurated the Goreh-Jask oil pipeline, a 1,000-kilometer mega-project that pumps crude oil from Bushehr province (within the Persian Gulf) directly to the port terminal of Jask, located in the Gulf of Oman, outside and south of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Capacity: At full capacity, this pipeline can transport approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd).
• The Strategic Advantage: By loading at Jask, tankers sail directly to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. They do not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding major US Navy patrols and crossfire.”
Pipelines? No way to defend them. Sorry.
Yes . The Yanbu pipeline is still transporting oil for KSA . It is always a 50/50 chance . Nothing is 100% safe . it takes a matchstick to start a wildfire .
Pipelines seem to be easy to fix however. Saudi Arabia fixed its bombed pipeline in days.
The US blockade, insofar as it exists, is in the Arabian Sea and obviously covers Jask.
Japan, one of the other major OECD oil inventory hubs, STOPPED posting its data in fear of freaking out the domestic market.
Since March…
No ,since beginning of April . They were updating till end of March .
Yup … you don’t cover up unless it is bad….
https://stats.paj.gr.jp/en/index
Notice: Temporary Suspension of “Products Stocks (KL)”
2026/03/24 15:16
Thank you for your continued support.
We sincerely appreciate your ongoing use of the PAJ Oil Statistics Weekly Report.
The PAJ Oil Statistics Weekly Report estimates and publishes national figures based on data collected from member companies of the Petroleum Association of Japan, as well as other sources. However, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Japan’s petroleum product supply structure has undergone significant changes. As a result, it has become difficult to ensure the accuracy of certain published data under our current estimation methodology.
Accordingly, starting with the data for the week ending Saturday, March 21, 2026, and until further notice, we have decided to suspend the publication of “Products Stocks (KL)” in the PAJ Oil Statistics Weekly Report.
Please note that all other items in the report will continue to be published as usual.
We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and appreciate your understanding.
This is great. Nikkei hits all time high. Japan stopped publishing its oil inventories because in fear of setting off a panic.
Japan imported on average 2.3 million b/d.
In April, it has only imported 0.6 million b/d.
Deficit of 1.7 million b/d.
As of this moment in time, Japan has less than 30 million bbls in commercial crude storage.
Japan released 80 million bbls from
SPR, 54 million bbls in crude.
84 million bbls in crude buys 49 days.
Japan will need to urge IEA to do another batch of SPR release. If not, it will unilaterally do it. It has 360 million bbls left, enough to buy it another 200 days after.
The job of DJT and Bessant is to keep the S&P high and oil prices low . This is a national security issue .
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-steady-after-record-high-closes-amid-hopes-for-renewed-iran-truce-230116905.html
As you say, ” Nikkei hits all time high.” No matter how bad the news, the stock market goes up. The government will add more debt, and that debt will save the system. Not true!
“Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
For Europe, the energy “crisis” in natural gas and electricity is, essentially, over.
Sure, it can re-start if the ceasefire collapses, and Iran were to attack Qatar.
But as now, it’s gone. And, let’s be clear, it was never a threat to start with as 2022 was. Key for ECB/BoE.“??
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2044511083415683354?s=20
I think Manuel should take this one. Manuel?
Manuel?
Manuel?
In a comment, Bill Blass (Bloomberg Columnist) points to this article he wrote about food. He sees hardly any problems regarding food supply.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-01/iran-war-are-we-headed-for-another-food-price-crisis
. . . the war in Iran — and its blockage of the Strait of Hormuz waterway — has prompted warnings about another bout of global food inflation similar to the one that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite such fears, the agricultural market isn’t at risk today, at least in the short term. The price of oil might have been soaring but the world’s plentiful food stocks are acting as a balm on commodity prices.
He says this war isn’t like the Ukraine war:
Instead of fertile land, the Third Gulf War is being fought over deserts and a strip of sea.
Regarding food:
The worst riots during the food crisis of 2007-08 weren’t about the price of bread, but the cost of a bowl of rice. Right now, benchmark prices for the cereal in the wholesale Asian market are approaching a 19-year low of $350 a ton.
Regarding fertilizers:
In Asia in particular, fertilizers are heavily subsidized, so high prices don’t presage a food crisis, rather a fiscal shock as governments bear the brunt of the cost increase.
Conclusion
If the US doesn’t manage to find an off-ramp from this war, energy and fertilizer costs may rise to a point where the farming industry cracks. We’re not there yet.
These two examples remind me of that great Robin Williams movie from my childhood, “Awakenings,” in which comatose people at the home for comatose people wake up for a hot minute and then go back to sleep and the movie ends with an unparalleled dose of Robin Williams pathos only matched by the earlier dose of unparalleled Robin Williams exuberance.
Waking up from deep seated denialism is a tenuous thing. We’ve seen it here plenty. Hand be putting butts to sleep again this week.
Or are we just crazy doomers? No. No we’re not..
I have been listening to the album ’12’ by Ryuichi Sakamoto. I hadn’t come across until recently. I wouldn’t usually recommend music but it is a work of extraordinary beauty and depth, which he recorded in the months prior to his death from throat cancer. Needless to say it has a sadness to it, but completely devoid of sentimentality. Recommended for anyone but especially aficionados of ambient or modern classical.
Sorry. Most people here cannot understand Japanese.
No necessary understand words to enjoy music.
Will illustrate with old traditional mukashii dentoteki Okinawa song, Asatoya Yunta, as melody very nice and natsukashi, make everyone cry.
Here introduce lyrics in Romaji:
Saa kimi wa nonaka no ibara no hana sa
saa yui yui
kurete kaereba yareho ni hikitomeru
mata hari nu chin dara kanushamayo
Saa ureshi hazukashi ukina o tatete
saa yui yui
nushi wa shirayuri yarehoni mama naranu
mata hari nu chin dara kanushamayo
Saa takusa toru nara izayoi tsukiyo
saa yui yui
futari de kigane mo yarehoni mizu irazu
mata hari nu chin dara kanushamayo
Saa somete agemasho konji no kosode
saa yui yui
kakete okureyo nasake no tasuki
mata hari nu chin dara kanushamayo
Saa Okinawa yoi toko ichido wa mensooree
saa yui yui
haru natsu aki fuyu midori no shima yo
mata hari nu chin dara kanushamayo
When this song sung, audience listen to words as if music, no need undersand, and sing along with second and forth lines:
saa yui yui
and
mata hari nu chin dara kanushamayo
Here introduce very nice version of Asatoya Yunta. You listen, you sing along, you cry tears of nostalgia for a past you never lived in, yes?
One of the most popular recent performers of Asatoya Yunta is Rimi Natsukawa. She sings it so clearly and beautifully that even I with my ringing ears and Western brain can catch all the syllables.
Also, before she begins this rendering, Rimi explains to the audience how they should sing along.
Kulm, I’m so happy for you because I know you are going to enjoy this!
saa yui yui !
and
mata hari nu
chin dara kanu-shamayo !
Excellent. have you gone to see hear in person?
No, but I would be happy to do that. She’s still active and often gives concerts.
Coincidentally, I just found a Ryuchi Sakamoto version of Asatoya Yunta!
Remember:
saa yui yui
and
mata hari nu chin dara kanu-shamayo
(Adding that hyphen makes it a lot easier to pronounce.)
That was great thanks. Not familiar with the genre but earlier on I couldn’t help but think of Philip Glass tracks from Baraka and Koyaanisqatsi. A bit of Eric Satie is all else I’ve ever heard if that fits the genre too..
Loved hearing the old fella wheezing on most of those earlier tracks not including the synthesizer ones. A few tracks after the breathing disappeared and the key strikes had strengthened and brightened I hazarded the guess that that initial transition was the thematic life-afterlife transition. But then when the last track with the wind chimes happened I wondered whether I needed to reassess and that maybe the earlier transition was more of a psycho emotional transition surrounding coming to terms with his terminal disease and that the chimes at the end represented his having just died.
I’m glad someone enjoyed. (It’s been a long time since I’ve seen/heard the qatsi trilogy, so thanks for reminder)
I must admit that I am also fairly new to this genre but it has led to a whole new level of music appreciation.
Other Sakamoto highlights include his collaboration with Fennesz on ‘Cendre’ and Alva Noto on the ‘VIRUS’ series.
And if you want to go full experimental/abstract I suggest Philip Jeck. He creates beautiful soundscapes using old turntables, some old scratched viny and a few effects.
Sweet, thanks. I listened to a Sakamoto-Wyatt collaboration last night and it was some great experimental jam rock.
Is any of this true? This is latest two entries:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-very-close-over-trump-says-iran-ceasefire-extension-reportedly-advances-more-us
Big Iran Overture in the Works?
A status quo compromise emerging? The latest to hit the newswires:
IRAN COULD CONSIDER SHIPS BEING ABLE TO SAIL THROUGH OMAN SIDE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHOUT INTERFERENCE OR ATTACK AS PART OF A DEAL WITH THE US: REUTERS, CITING SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN
IRAN WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER ITS WATERS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND OMAN WILL DECIDE ABOUT ITS OWN SIDE OF THE WATERWAY – SOURCE CLOSE TO TEHRAN
Iran has just signaled willingness to allow strait traffic pass unconditionally on the Oman side of the strait, perhaps as a face-saving measure, amid talk of a 2nd Pakistan peace summit being put together, as a potential uneasy status quo emerges.
Iran Halts Petrochemical Exports
Is Trump’s blockade working?
IRAN HALTS PETROCHEMICAL EXPORTS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE: ISNA
CNBC also in a breaking headline writes: Iran halts all petrochemical exports ‘until further notice,’ Iranian state media reports. This comes after a new Pentagon warning to all vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s like the contradiction of Obama, Zuck, and the billionaires building their bunkers and palaces on the ocean waterfront while they fearmonger that climate change is going to cause the oceans to rise. Well have to wait to see which “news” coming out of the Iran is fake.
The internet promsied us the informationa age. Instead, we have the disinformation age, fake news, AI, and the ability to make stock trades in milliseconds based on insider information to accelerate the great wealth extraction and transfer to the oliogarchs. We are getting chopped up by the back edge of this double edged sword.
Unfortunately for Canada, NZ, Australia, UK and even China, they have surrendered their guns. Meanwhile, most of us in the US won’t have the balls to use ours. Things will have to get a whole lot worse before that ever happens.
Australia and the UK.. yes. Canada is next up. You can no longer buy or sell handguns in Canada. This law was forced on us a few years back. Everyone went gang busters buying as many of them as they could before it started. I’m expecting confiscation next. I suspect a huge number of home break-ins (with lots of glass replacement business) will occur when that day comes.
Certain combat style rifles have now been targeted, but apparently their owners were not that keen to surrender them. So, a quagmire has formed.
But taking away our sole means of protection for when the SHTF??? It’s a terrifying thought.
Not gonna happen rest easy. Misdirection play because Canada is politically behind the curve like Europe. In related news as of the first of this year in the USA, the $200 stamp tax on silencers/suppressors was finally abolished, and purchased have gone through the roof. Counterintuitively, application approval times on suppressors are at record lows, as in, mere days. Howz that for well-run government? Things that make you go hmmmmmm.
Welcome to the silent dawn of Frontier Politics in USA and Canada.
The best CAN rural properties will get expropriated by various domestic and chiefly former US based head honchos, especially if the enviro hazards like drought and soil erosion continue, besides the PO/energy crisis. That’s given reality – it’s simply the utmost law of locust human-iods.
For CAN people the only ~solution is to jump ahead that mega trend and relocate to seemingly even worse ( as in colder / inhospitable ) climate up north.
This analysis – info has been out there for decades, apparently only minuscule% of real brainiacs acted upon this information when it was easy to perform, too bad..
It’s just the Hand predictively programming the boundaries of the Global Peace Accords (GPA) to follow. It’s been doing that for a few days now. In this case, the Strait being reduced to just Omani waters under the GPA would enable maybe 30% of pre- Big Nuclear Scare (BNS) traffic., according to AI. That’s plenty for Phase 2.
The BNS is a signed curtain lifted apocalyptically. The curtain has song structure. Is this the second verse of the BNS that we’re in now? Is this the last verse, the last verse? Is it the bridge? Or just another key change?
Because the Hand is an egregore, like all egregores it’s as lonely figure. That’s why reante does his best to keep it company. The Hand (Mr Meta) has an all-time favorite song that just so happened written in the year of its birth, 1972. The year of the Hand’s birth was of course in accordance with the Two Year Rule of Peak Oil. I think the song is a very fine favorite song for a world egregore to have.
Robert Wyatt’s “Signed Curtain”
https://youtu.be/IySDMk2iFT8
https://differenteverytime.com/lyrics/signed-curtain/
Thanks Gail. Wyatt was a living legend. He collaborated with Sakamoto, who Diarm posted on, in the 90s. Everybody who was anybody wanted a piece of Wyatt. I just got to work and am going to listen to Diarm’s link now.
By the way, for those who may be thinking that the living legend is no more, Robert Wyatt is still alive, although he calls himself a retired musician these days.
He is most famous for the accident that left him in a wheelchair at the age of 28. He got drunk at a part and fell out of a 4th-floor window in Lady June Campbell Cramer’s flat in Mada Vale. So he went from paralytic to paraplegic.
But he credits the accident with saving his life as he was in the process of drinking himself to death up to the time of the fall.
I gather he’s still alive then thanks.
Pink Floyd benefit concert for him:
https://youtu.be/vO_aOkBJZTg
Almost certainly complete manure.
You always know you’re getting treated like a moron, when they come out with fantasy like this
“Iran has just signaled willingness to allow strait traffic pass unconditionally on the Oman side of the strait, perhaps as a face-saving measure”
First, Oman has been using its waters throughout(in agreement with Iran no doubt, on who and what), but keep it quiet, apparently no one in CENTCOM knew.
Second, every accusation, a confession. It’s not Iran that is desperate to save face.
Hormuz open and free, bases everywhere and dominant control of the region, has turned into blown up bases, troops either hiding, ran, or dead, Hormuz not free, now not even navigable(for those now desperate to save face) and domination lies where everyone outside the west can see clear as day.
“CNBC also in a breaking headline writes: Iran halts all petrochemical exports ‘until further notice,’ Iranian state media reports. This comes after a new Pentagon warning to all vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz”
When did this news break, because it’s not in Iranian media. Probably because they are all asleep(apart from the fantasist in… Washington).
This is as believable, as the fake minesweepers and every other fake tale, told daily, only to be shown for what they are within hours.
At best, it’s deceptive, as Iran has other means of transport to a wide variety of destinations(Pakistan has just happily used their North-South corridor).
Here’s what can do people achieve, in hours.
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/11/3563250/iranian-engineers-display-ingenuity-in-repairing-bombed-railroad-network
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/12/3563962/iran-plans-to-restore-bulk-of-refining-capacity-in-short-term-following-us-israeli-strikes
How’s that bridge in Baltimore getting on?
The nuclear thing. Absolutely not and anyone that says otherwise, should at least read the words of FM spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei from earlier today(unless it’s just more fantasy, then no point bothering with events in the real world). There is also the little matter, that they have shown beyond doubt that they don’t need them.
Also, how could they ever find anything normal about the squat? The only “normalisation” will happen when the squatters FO back to where they came from(next year), or die for their crimes. That’s every adult that’s served and every adult that can’t prove deeds at least 100 years old(think of all those children Donny).
https://youtu.be/nP9d8wBlJlk?si=g0tH5W-tz6hbexZx
Escobar on Judge Napolitano said that are at least two witnesses ( one around the table ) on outside room Islamabad negotiations, who confirmed that Jared K. supposedly asked Iranians for ~his %cut ( a commission ) inside that pay per entry Hormuz scheme..
LOL. Tabloid Pepe bringing the economic Cannibal angle. Spaceballs meets Epstein Class meets Jerky. Those poor Iranian saints having to countenance such Monsters.
Well the angle was that by that act of further non trustworthiness of US team ( no real diplomatic cadre present ) sunk even lower..
There’s nothing lower than rock bottom.
My point is that anybody buying into the Spaceballs blow-off top of the Age of Gaslighting cultural bubble, themselves become damn fools. Like watching pro wrestling as if its real.
How about you Jr? Do you want to be part of the next Establishment culture that ontologically got run off a cliff in exchange for being part of the next national socialist Establishment? Becoming the new, new woke?
Would you sell your soul to the devil? Not at any price but just the right one?
The price of relief from existential dread.
Turtles all the way down, and each successive rinse and repeat takes you further from whole because the more to rinses you survive (first the woke liberal rinse, then the new woke MAGA rinse) the more whole you think you are, and thus the further from reality you are
Welcome to cultural Collapse. As we’ve noted before, Orlov got the sequence wrong. There is no sequence just simultaneity.
I’m approaching age when usually most of the cunning plans ( on hold ) likely won’t get put into action or at least not in desired full scope.
Obviously nobody can claim to be know it all omnipresent, but I still have not ( after decades in ~PO realm ) disapproved the basic limits barrier ahead of us. Briefly, my operating theory is that the humankind will be at least ~temporarily “punished” for its opulent excessive run of past decades and centuries. As in being slapped for choosing the bad variant under testing questionnaire.
Moreover, on the basal level I sense we live inside some sort of simulated existence in which perhaps all participants are AI / on autopilot / role playing / .. like for at least part of their time allowance-existence, incl. myself. In other words resistance ( of any kind ) against “destiny” is futile. Albeit individual attempts to do so have implications on your ( future) role in said sim-world. Yes, many ~mystical schools came to similar viewpoint by different routes very long time before us as well and in way different setting around them.
For example, today that pair of birds from the Corvidae family ( very high IQ ) landed just few meters from me, and watched me ( not doing other biz ) with somewhat calm ironic attitude for several minutes.
It’s the same pair I was following for months as they were building / repairing their large nest near to my window way before any other birds showed up.
So, they paid visit to me after so much thought-energy “between us” exchanged over the said time. Perhaps they are even indeed closer as former friend’s or family member’s souls long time departed from this world.
Or I’m just imagining things..
Who is the boss here, wild boars or the visitors from the sky?
t5:00min
https://youtu.be/z0ulEaYcV5g
Cool JR. Our raven (or two) is, I believe, taking a chicken egg or two every day. I’m okay with it for the time being. One of the young hens will hang around the free laying nest under a shelf in a storage room adjoining a log store out in a pasture, where about half of the hens lay — the other half lay in the coop which incurs no thefts — in order to chase off the squirrels, so they may be responsible too. The squirrels are part of the reason I just purchased a .22 pistol and a silencer since I use the squirrel trap in the yard. I would never shoot a raven though. The chickens like eating squirrel. Can’t really get the dogs to eat them.
Interesting, thanks.
I gather the squirrels must be at least one size up from ours, almost as cat right. In contrast ours are small and very shy of people. Most likely also because of nearby ongoing logging grr they reverted back into more undisturbed part of the forest. We would appreciate yours larger squirrels as aggressively choking on their wood harvester hydraulic lines, lol.
The ~benefit though was they left the hazel bushes alone past two seasons ( apart from ” unauthorized ” neighbor’s sample picking them hah )..
Good harvest vs prior years.
The most dangerous animals over here ( apart from #1 human-oids ) are wild boar encounters as in even slow motion car accident and hornet nesting near buildings and sheds, and perhaps crazy dogs occasionally.
The largest fauna like bears and various deer family species are smart enough to avoid people usually and hang out inside nat.reserves anyway.
And obviously in city setting the rats, they provide them with tons of specialized spoiled cookies y / y, and supposedly they always got immune to that latest poison recipe after-while anyway.. One can imagine they will spread into the wild ( outside mega-city premises ) once again eventually..
No the mature male squirrels can get a decent size to where our cat, Shadow, who’s a pretty small cat, probably wouldn’t take them down, but they’re not as big as you wondered. She’s never drug the biggest ones to the doorstep. The squirrels strip our hazelnuts while they’re still green. And last year was so dry that they stripped every last apple from the orchard. Probably like 800 apples. Someone needs to get his act together around here. Crunchtime. Putting that suppressed .22 on a chest holster and gonna stalk the yard as I go about my other yard business. It’s the season again now to take to the high ground and start drinking my coffee in a chair up on top of the shipping container where they don’t notice me.
I’d have to have the intelligence of a window licker, to believe tall tale Pepe(have they found his “downed nuclear bomb” yet? It’s been 9 months and he knew exactly where it happened).
I’m not in the mood for a labotomy and I can’t think of any other way to make him believable.
Anyway, is that how bad the loss was. Trying to walk away with a small commission(something to hide the tail between the legs, as he backs away), because… Winning.
I did notice Bessent has threatened sanctions against Chinese Banks, just 48hrs after that new law the Chinese brought in, so that’s going to change how various groups react, assuming that the US is stupid enough to try. I would say, perfect timing from the Chinese, not too early, not too late, just on time(there’s probably videos mocking the stupid already).
To your first point regarding Omani waters, the news today is about future usage under a peace deal and not past usage or current usage.
“the news today”
Western? So it’s fiction.
“a peace deal”
Don’t you just love the language they use, when what they mean is, whatever Iran says is gospel. Begging to be part of a small awkward way of doing what was free and easy, is exactly that, begging.
Why even bother talking about a peace deal, when the Iranians are saying, not much point continuing, when the yanks can’t even accept the basics required for peace talks to commence(there have been no peace talks so far, for those that read western fiction). Maybe a ceasefire extension, but only if the rapist keeps the squatting rapists from murdering Lebanese children, but that isn’t peace talks, just a bunch of murdering rapists brought to heel for a time.
I’m not talking about the unobtainable political theater peace deal anymore than Iran is talking about an unobtainable peace deal. On that score, Iran and me are speaking the same language because Iran’s position in this conflict is the Hand’s position.
The reason that I have repeatedly brought up and quoted from The Fool character in the King Lear play is because The Fool is just a vehicle for Shakespeare to comment directly on the play himself. Ditto Iranian statements and LEGO propaganda.
The Iranian/Hand/reante peace deal talk is about the real peace deal that will take place after the MAGA stooges have been theatrically perp walked for treasons various and sundry and Israeli Zionism excised from the region by the new America First coup regime.
“Shakespeare”
Bacon. Shakespeare was an illiterate vehicle, so fools wouldn’t look for the real meaning in the writing. No offence to fools, I obviously have a soft spot for them(particularly to the kind you talk of).
The ceasefire for Lebanon now agreed(kinda), again shows who has dominance and there’s no Yankee doodle handy in sight.
It’ll kick off again soon enough. No doubt about that(maybe as soon as that huge coffin gets around Africa) and Iran’s actions, will be Iran’s alone. Maybe it’ll be Big Navy Sunk😉
I mean Bacon!
I don’t suppose the Lebanese ceasefire means Lebanon has dominance lol. Israel got some low blows in there after the ceasefire, no surprise. Like when one of my midsize goats takes it out on a little one after itself having been ejected from in front of the feeder by a big goat.
“I don’t suppose the Lebanese ceasefire means Lebanon has dominance lol.”
Dominance is Iran’s, but Iran includes all freedom fighters and Hezbollah have proven time and time again, that they dominate the squatter army always, when it comes to fighting.
Hormuz is open for now, but only under Iranian instruction, so pressure is on the US to it’s rabid dog under control.
“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran,”
Araqchi
Now the next attack will have even worse optics, maybe even bad enough for Iran to be able to finish the job once and for all.
Interesting talk with Marandi, where he mentions Hormuz and those first targets(from around 12:00, but the whole things not bad).
Yeah thanks Fitz. The Saints of Hormuz taking the high road yet again for the duration of the ceasefire now that Israel has stopped cheating again, and even though Israel cheated. Trump may have truthed a meme of himself as a christ-like figure but Iran is the real christ-like figure is how our collective subconscious must regard things. Iran as loyal Cordelia to her insane father, Lear.
Lear, of course, ultimately recognizes his insane hubris and folly in an unexpected and miraculous moment of clarity that nobody sees coming except of course for the Fool, and Lear, now a tragic hero because of that newfound self-awareness, subsequently seeks forgiveness from, and reparations with, loyal and saintly Cordelia. Lear ends up in prison and Cordelia dead but we’re going discount her death as particularly relevant to the loosely based current events.
Where does the poop and pee go? Where did it come from ?
These are the quintessential question s of civilization.
It’s 7pm. Do you know where your energy inputs are?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ccvOH-5SszI&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D
Any of it true. Hard to know. Ai hard at work creating content on you tube faking real people and making up all sorts of bizarre stories. It’s like the national enquirer dropped acid. Harvesting clicks all that matters. Blockade intact. Blockade bypassed. I can find a hundred videos supporting each on you tube. They drone on methodically joining words each second of viewing apparently worth something. Monotone words grammatically correct. How can so many words be created and joined but have zero content? Trying to influence? Nah. Informing? Nah. Total empty content designer only to trick a viewer into watching. What are you rooting for? There is a ai video created for you. Angry about something? Ai will support that. Happy about something? Ai will support that. Sad about something? Just click that. Of course you have your own personal YouTube ai watching you. It knows what you want so it creates it. You click. You watch. Everyone happy. What’s not to like?
Take a real channel like dialogue works. It gets copiedc20 ways to Sunday twisted every which way. The creators
Dialogue works insights
Dialogue works highlites
Dialogue-works
Dialogue works for you
Ad nauseum
You click. Ai happy.
Ai fires a spread of photon torpedos trying to get a hit.
Titles
Iran destroyed
Iran wins
Iran loses
Iran victorious
Iran rebuilds
Iran secret weapon
The content is all made up out of nothing in a couple nano seconds.
I’m afraid you understand what we are dealing with. It is difficult to write a post to compete with the nonsense that is out there.
“It is difficult to write a post to compete with the nonsense that is out there.”
Never try to compete with nonsense. As the saying goes, they’ll drag you down to their level, where they are expect.
You win by doing the ground work and plenty of people have had enough of the intellectually calorie deficient diet(slop), presently being fed to them.
Some info from Pakistan on the 2nd round of talks . Social media — not official . General Munir has gone to Iran with a new list from Washington .
1 . No enrichment for 20 years ;
2 . limitation on number of missiles production and range . All to be verified by an independent team of observers .
3 . Punishment for the officials of the so called massacre during the anti govt protests earlier this year .
4 . Disbanding the ” Basij ” force ;
5 . Sign on to the Abraham accord to make peace with Israel .
I don’t think we will have peace with these terms .
I agree. No peace with these terms.
Indian government to bail out Air India and Spice Jet witha $ 400 million loan facility . High fuel costs .
https://www.whalesbook.com/news/English/transportation/India-Airlines-Get-indian-rupee4000-Crore-Aid-as-Geopolitics-Hurts-Profits/69de92b6f17a01585074eeaf
This sounds like a temporary bandaid. I twill never be paid back.
Fatigued from clarifying this from several years .
The U.S. net oil exporter claim is misleading
2/3 is NGLs and the tight oil that doesn’t meet our refinery specs .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2044079552255668288/photo/1
So, what does this say? That there has been no change in export levels?
No , it says NGL ‘s are not crude oil .
Sorry , to add this includes finished products also . Finished products are not crude . We must be careful because the MSM makes it sound that it is all crude . Misinformation .
I guess Ravi’s angle is that usually msm tends to portrait US [ oil export ] capacity without making above proper distinction into various categories, which each have their own further implications what/how and where it can be then utilized to perform actual task – energy derived work if you will ..
PS what is always fascinating about this graph and specifically its post 2010s [ upward knee ] is how it nicely rhymes with the geopolitical choices made back at that time ..
I see how Art put together his chart of US “oil” exports. But he doesn’t match it against US oil imports. He needs to do this to claim that the import/export comparison is wrong.
In 2025, the US imported a total of 7.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and products. In the same year, the US exported 10.7 mbpd of crude oil and products.
One of these products is natural gas liquids, amounting to 3.1 million bpd. Subtracting the 3.1 million from 10.7 million, the amount of exports (excluding natural gas liquids) is equal to 7.6 mbpd.
So, if we give no credit at all for natural gas liquids, exports would be 7.9 – 7.6 = 0.3 mbpd higher than imports, which would imply a small shortfall of exports.
But certainly natural gas liquids are worth something. Ignoring them completely is not fair either. If we give any reasonable credit for natural gas liquids, the US is still exporting more than it imports.
Another point is that over half (4.5 mbpd) of US imported oil and products were from Canada, leaving only 3.4 mbpd from other countries. These imports are not likely to disappear soon.
Ravi
It’s misleading to look at America solely alone. If you look at ‘N. American’ with USA and Canada combined. Then “Yes, we are energy self sufficient”.
Hope that helps.
Russia places temporary export controls on helium .
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2044254850565730578/photo/1
Expect semiconductor shortages
Here too I ask what difference does it make. everyone has his computer and android. it makes the unlikely construction of many data centers even more unlikely.
Hm, ~chips/semiconductors are in everything, EVs and charging, PV controllers,
grrr..
not the high quality ones. not every chip need helium for cooling during manufacturing.
Good point, thanks.
But I’d assume large part of chips in the segment I mentioned is quite exclusive sub category..
No but I don’t expect those arcane gas mixes fed into the etch and dep chambers to be available. Silane. Photoresist. Photoresist solvents. The list is endless. Every electric component in those multi million dollar machines. The materials used extensive and exotic. Way cool.NASA is ghetto.
It only takes one.
It can be as simple as something like shuttles in a solenoid valve not being available. Sure you will machine things like that up for a while. Get on that bridge port.
It’s over.
Battery management system chips.
Not that there will be batteries.
DC to DC step down or buck step up can be paralleled for enough power for well pumps. They have to be synced and tricked with a low ohm resistor.bthen that’s the input for the inverter. You tube videos. No batteries needed for power during day when batteries are no longer available.
The DC to DC converters change the power from current source to voltage source as well as voltage needed
Pet peeve. 5v USB supply for everything. Seriously?
India Gets Fertilizer Offers Near $1,000 as War Stokes Costs
A closely-watched urea tender in India — the world’s top buyer of the nitrogen-based fertilizer — drew offers near $1,000 a ton, in a fresh sign of how the war in Iran is sending prices for the crop nutrient surging.
Aramco Trading Co. and Ameropa Asia Pte. were among more than two dozen suppliers offering the crop nutrient to the South Asian nation as high prices following the conflict add urgency to stockpiling ahead of a key planting season.
Indian Potash Ltd., which imports the crop nutrient for the government, received offers for 3.29 million tons against a 1.5 million ton tender for the west coast, with prices between $935 and $1,136 a ton, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg)
Last year the price was $ 305-350 per tonne .
”Russia already supplies 17 to 20 percent of China’s oil, the largest single-country share. Lavrov’s offer to “compensate” is a promise made from infrastructure that has no spare capacity to fulfill it. The offer is diplomatic architecture, not molecular delivery.” ?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2044295330389471272?s=20
Obviously this is wrong. Russia just has to stop providing oil to India and Europe, and the spare capacity is created.
The oil would need to be provided by ship, the way that much oil is being distributed today.
Agree drb , India and EU are now expendable from the viewpoint of Russia . India goes first .
As European currency loses value why would you want to sell to them anyway? I dont understand what Europe will trade for oil I. The future
They will attempt to sell their Italian(-fr) Jeeps, which are these dayz apparently subpar to CHN jeeps and pickups..
Over at Unz, a commenter going by the name Bert said the following, which I thought might be worthy of sharing for all you history buffs:
Regarding the Iranian strategy, it is similar to that employed by the largely Scots-Irish militia in driving Cornwallis out of the Carolinas and to his fate at Yorktown. These militias were mounted (If you can’t be pinned in one place by infantry, then you are effectively hidden like Iranians), had distributed local commands that nonetheless coordinated with each other ( like the Iranians), were mostly armed with the most accurate weapons available (rifles rather than muskets), and overall had an asymmetric strategy of only participating in fights they could win (defensive with the possibility of mounted escape, or when joined with the limited Continental troops in the South), and luckily faced a fool like Cornwallis for an opponent (like the Iranians face Trump).
Cornwallis almost recaptured the southern USA were it not for Louis XVI sending his navy to Yorktown, the last British naval defeat until Repulse and Prince of Wales in 1941.
And Louix XVI lost his head because of that and Admiral Grasse , the French commander, also met a bad fate while Cornwallis lived a successful life.
And the lift which was sown then eventually led to the US civil war 90 years later.
I run local LLMs. It seems to me that the quality of analysis provided by free publicly available LLMs (AI like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Grok) has recently gone down. Is that just my impression? I think the energy limits play a role. Like energy consumption per capita.
”The reality is that while Big Tech and investors are selling superintelligent and autonomous AI, we currently have only narrow AI, which performs one or a few tasks at most. Someone must pay for the failure to fulfil the AI dream of exponential returns and unlimited growth and, if possible, disguise it as a win.” ?
https://www.themintmagazine.com/artificially-fake/?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9cB0XM2pankBuh9qYo1jA2_mbGgneh5MOx7P_WZcwZrROtbfw1b1P6nWoDZgcahGgevPkMC70QMsryzdx3dRvd92SwtA&_hsmi=413361782&utm_content=413361782&utm_source=hs_email
Here is your (truly) local LLM for you (and “Curt”):
https://ai.rajasthan.gov.in
Would you like to move to India?
Yes – you Django, to your genetic motherland in Varanasi, to the heavenly Ganga banks:
https://amardeepphotography.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/102.jpg
It is too many people there that is why you fled from there.
There is no way to smelt copper without a lot of sulphur. Sulphuric acid is created as a valuable byproduct. While there has been much discussion about the effects of a sulpheric acid not much about the effect on copper supply. Copper can not be smelted without sulphur. Almost half the world’s sulphur comes out of the strait.
The cycle Gail has outlined so many times is taking place in materials the war the catalyst. First prices rising very fast. Then the demand destruction from lack of affordability. Finally critical materials simply not being available as pricing falls too low to support extraction and refining. There appears to be a lot of different variations with this situation as the different materials and their relationship to each other are effected by the supply realities of each in the Gulf. Unavailability of one effects others in ripple effects. The complexity of this means attempting manufacturing as the price of various materials are unpredictable and affordability and financial factors loom unpredictability means risk will make many hesitant to manufacture in this environment. What happens if manufacturers try to lock in contracts to define the bottom line. Purchasers of the materials manufactured goods don’t like that because they have the same problems. Every one knows the bottom is going to drop out so no one wants to lock in agreements for anything. But it is those agreements that allow anything to happen. For a while people try. Inevitably segments of the industry “take a break” even before demand destruction hits. It’s much better to be too early here than too late. Even as the initial high prices create high profits everyone is eyeing their exit strategy. For copper that comes sooner or later as the volatile housing sector already in a mega bubble reacts very hard to economic and financial downturns.
The final stage of unavailability is unthinkable for copper. One has to wonder. Are these data center really going to get built? There were questions even before. If they are not built what does that imply for the trillions of debt that have been extended for their creation? It goes without saying. Copper is a critical material that must be available. But what if it isn’t. Whale oil? 🙂
Certainly interesting he reality of sudden unavailability of materials from the war not depletion interact with financial. Fascinating even. With the inevitable ending that is a forgone conclusion. Unobtanium.
“The CACTUS Lens: A Clearer View” ?
https://un-denial.com/2025/11/30/the-cactus-lens-a-clearer-view/
This is the long post from November 2025. It has a lot of worthwhile things to say.
“Imagine the effect of CACTUS awareness on philanthropy. What might billionaires with children do with their wealth if they understood modernity will soon be gone? Perhaps they might buy up biodiverse rainforests to protect them.
Shifting from the current zero-sum game strategy to a positive-sum game strategy will be very difficult.
CACTUS is very unpleasant. Genetic denial, as explained by MORT, will be in full force resisting CACTUS awareness.
On the other hand, almost everything going on in the world today is also very unpleasant, and many people are losing their minds because nothing makes sense.
In a strange way, CACTUS may be less unpleasant than what we are currently asked to believe, because the CACTUS story at least agrees with what our eyes see, and provides reasons for gratitude when times are tough, so maybe there’s a chance for CACTUS awareness.
We evolved in small tribes that in times of scarcity had to fight other tribes to survive. There are no attacking aliens to unite us.
The CACTUS lens does point to a common threat that will kill almost everyone, but most people won’t believe it.
When times get tougher, as they surely will, leaders will have zero chance of adopting a positive-sum game strategy unless a majority of citizens see the world through the CACTUS lens.
Those of us that are CACTUS aware should start brainstorming how to spread CACTUS awareness.”
Bargaining really is the root of all stoopidity. It’s why I will never purchase anything used unless I’m willing to pay the asking price. If I don’t like the price, I scroll down. One person haggling with the truth is bad enough, but two strangers getting together to do that? Welcome to Judaism. It’s pretzels all the way down.
Hideaways says that zero-sum-behavior is bad in a zero-sum-behavior world and that positive-sum game behavior is better suited for a zero-sum-behavior world, because Heaven. Hideaway says that the world knowing about Collapse systems theory would immediately collapse the world but if, instead, the world knew about his CACTUS version of Collapse systems theory which is not materially any different unless you consider reinventing the wheel inventive – if the world only knew about CACTUS theory then Hideaway would have singlehandedly managed to simultaneously cause the world to know the truth of near term Collapse while enabling the world to react to Collapse in the most constructive manner possible. Hideaway would have managed to bargain down the price of eating of the tree of knowledge on a global scale. CACTUS: is it heaven or Las Vegas?
“Come boy, let’s blast it all
I’m dizzy so I go, “another pinky bump”
Come fantasy, for a carnival
Come fantasy before a wedding
[Chorus]
Singing on the famous street
I want to love a-bom-a-bom-bom me
Am I just in heaven or Las Vegas?
It’s whichever’s more bright around and soonest to me”
“Heaven or Las Vegas” by the Cocteau Twins:
https://youtu.be/6KnYw4EwYGc
Excellent points. Thank you! The interaction of unavailable materials with the financial system makes the situation even worse.
First nation to stand up to Israel
https://www.rt.com/news/638429-italy-suspends-defense-agreement-israel/
Interesting thoughts
Had to go to yandek to find this
Giorgia is not 100% corrupt. But Italy counts like the two of clubs with spades trumps.
Hello drb,
it is an interesting view, although optimistic.
Anyway, in my view, Meloni is zero corrupt, but only obliged to stay in certain lines if she wants to survive.
Every politician remember here the end of Aldo Moro.
So, she was obliged to follow a certain behavior.
But I think that now the situation in Italy is so loaded that if one talks on the street the average consideration is that Mr. H.’s only mistake was that he didn’t finish the job…
People are fed up of children dying and starving in their own historical land.
People are fed up of evil actions.
In addition all the young Italian generations share classes at school with other teeneger immigrant, of first or second generation, from Marocco, Lybia, Tunisia, Egitto, Syria, Libano, Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan etc. they feel all brothers and sisters, they play together.
Italian tenegers cannot anymore tolerate we kill them at their original homes.
Immigration brought something positive at the end, a change on colonial perspective…
Meloni and her staff read facebook, telegram, instagram etc. hear what people say in pubs and recreational places and know they cannot any more ignore what is happening on the new generations.
The king is nake.
I hope Jews will understand this, otherwise they will be all hated, without distintion between Zionists and not.
Sorry, that’s not how immigration bearing on politics in practice works on the ground apparently.
The elite brooms a candidate seemingly with roots in this very immigrant diaspora background but then task that person to pursue very different policies than expected by the naive masses. If he fails or get hated/not trusted, just repeat the same trick with another one “candidate”.. Works swell both in the US and EU so far.. and likely into few future decades, people are absolutely beyond gullible hopeless..
The US and Europe are getting increasingly far apart on this war. Offending the Pope, and Hegseth praying for the war in Jesus’ name, has not gone over well.
Aluminum supply chain issue. Blowing up aluminum manufacturing causes aluminum supply chain disruptions. Who would have thought? I’m sure there will be a huge allocation of capx to rebuild these plants on account of the region being so stable. Be sure to pencil in the cost of a couple air defense missile batteries you know standard manufacturing capx.
It’s the ultimate game of chicken with the global economy. Nothing like blowing critical materials manufacturing to smithereens. It’s like Goldilocks. You want something critical so they feel it but not so critical so cascading effects stop the world. A metered and measured destruction of critical resources manufacturing Whoopsie.
COVID did not involve the destruction of a single critical resource manufacturing requiring someone to risk rebuild capx o return to before and it took a eight trillion jump start. CLEAR!
Trump was spot on. Were going to beg him to stop winning so much. I’m begging right now. The winning is downright unbearable.
Hormocalypse? No not snappy enough.
2025 was the ultimate good old day year. What’s missing? We need a snappy acronym like 911 or COVID for this round of catastrophe. They sure seem to keep coming. Coincidence I’m sure.
https://youtu.be/-9hnnBxQT8E?si=F92EunirbmqFxpKL
Aluminum production seems to move to where ever electricity is available at give-away prices. Natural gas has historically been a close-to-worthless product in the Middle East because the cost of shipping it as LNG is so high as to price most buyers out. The easier way to use natural gas is in making electricity. This cheap electricity is in turn used to make inexpensive aluminum.
The catch is that natural gas should really be priced higher, so that the selling of oil doesn’t have to handle the full cost of oil and gas extraction. If natural gas starts costing more, or the shipping of aluminum becomes more expensive, aluminum becomes more expensive.
Taking out an aluminum plan in the Middle East makes people think about what it would cost to make aluminum closer to home, using electricity from natural gas, coal or hydroelectric. Bauxite seems to be fairly abundant.
I see no big deal. The Western auto industry is collapsing anyway, and there are already too many commercial airplanes in the world. Th USA pitiful military jets production is such that whether they build or not is immaterial. Is it really so important to build more in this day and age?
Good points. The smogasbord of materials is ending. I do like the aluminum frames my pv panels sport. My life of luxury.
I thought this article was concerning. This sounds like a way to make work for every company with software. How to fix the many vulnerabilities, so that AI can’t find them!
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/treasury-rushes-access-anthropic-mythos-ai-after-warning-it-can-hack-every-major-system
Treasury Rushes To Access Anthropic ‘Mythos’ AI After Warning It Can Hack “Every Major Operating System”
The US Treasury Department’s technology team is actively seeking access to Anthropic PBC’s highly restricted Mythos AI model so it can begin hunting for software vulnerabilities, according to a person familiar with the situation cited by Bloomberg.
Treasury Chief Information Officer Sam Corcos briefed the department’s cybersecurity team on the technology last week and has directed efforts to gain access to the model “as soon as this week.”
The request comes days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned top Wall Street CEOs to an urgent meeting at Treasury headquarters. Executives were warned that Mythos and similar frontier AI models could usher in a new era of heightened cyber risk. Anthropic itself has cautioned that the model may be capable of powering sophisticated cyberattacks unless companies proactively test it against their own systems and build defenses ahead of any wider release.
so I wonder what the risk is
The new Mythos AI can figure out how to hack almost anything, including things like the software used in government systems. It could be used to negate the tax bill for a particular user, or to bring down the whole system. This sounds like a real head ache to deal with.
The real money with software has always been in security. Computer security is a protection racket.
For the right price, Mythos can protect its customers from hackers.
Protection racket! That is what we need.
Hello everyone 🙂 ,
An thanks raviuppal for your answer ^^.
From this perspective, collapse appears inevitable ?
We can all agree on one key point: our dissipative system requires roughly 100 million barrels of oil per day to function.
The situation in Iran is inextricable. If energy flows decline, it inevitably leads to higher prices and therefore to demand destruction.
The real question is: how long must this situation be maintained to destroy enough demand?
Covid acted as a pause. Demand was artificially put into a state of lethargy, which kept energy prices relatively low.
If I remember , my former company was likely operating at only 40–50% of its nominal capacity.
Companies did not collapse immediately, and energy flows were gradually restored as lockdowns were lifted.
Some of the least efficient companies were purged from the system, freeing up energy for other “thermodynamic bubbles,” such as artificial intelligence.
However, today the situation is different. There appears to be a clear intent to cut off one of the most productive energy arteries of our system.
The apparent goal is to undermine the core of the thermo-industrial system: industry itself.
Once industry is weakened or destroyed, only a few of the most efficient clusters would likely remain.
From that point, the dynamic could accelerate rapidly. Medicines and healthcare could become scarce, benign diseases could once again become deadly, and food could become both rarer and more expensive for a large part of the population.
Democratic systems could weaken or disappear in some regions, and forms of mass violence could re-emerge in different forms.
Energy prices could become increasingly inelastic: each wave of demand destruction would only deepen systemic imbalances.
Until reaching a degraded form of thermodynamic equilibrium: there would no longer be enough energy available to rebuild or restart a complex system, but still enough to maintain essential functions.
This raises a fundamental question: how could even the largest and most resilient companies survive under such conditions?
Can they realistically operate at 20% of their capacity? It seems unlikely.
Their operations depend on a dense and interconnected industrial ecosystem. If a critical supplier of even a small specialized company disappears, the entire production chain can be disrupted.
Large companies are not autonomous: they are designed to function within a complete industrial network and are sized properly.
If that network fragments or collapses, even the most robust structures become vulnerable.
the elders will not allow this to happen they don’t want the system to crash they are just trying to usher in electric cars or the electric world this isthe great reset that they have been harping on about.the ships are still going up and down the straightof horMuz so what that means is they are simply preparing for peak oil.
I suppose that we could argue that the industries being cut off are ones fairly limited. They are in the Middle East.
The big problem in the Middle East is the huge population that needs government hand-outs of one form or another, such as food subsidies or subsidized jobs.
Somehow the system needs to be restructured so that essentially all of the adults in the Middle-East are working at productive jobs. The high population of hangers-on to the system needs to quietly disappear. I don’t know how this can be done. I understand that many of the jobs that require technical skills are being done by foreigners. This leaves a large population of native-born individuals with no way of earning a reasonable income.
Traditional, from millenium, “jihad” on infidels in some distant lands – get rid of violent and aggressive young meat, almost always works.
Same with (somewhat historically newer) LDS/Mormons – send their male youngsters who knows were (i.e. very far away) to proselytize, while the (well deserving) Mormon elders processthe remaining young (read – fertile) females…
in the span of a single century, the middle east (with our help) has burned through a vast store of cheap surplus energy.
that century is important, because it means that there is no one now alive with a memory of how to live without that surplus….
(we in the west have the same problem…it just looks different from our perspective)…
Norm , I LMAO when I see youngsters stranded on the road with a flat tyre waiting for a tyre service or a tow truck . Absolutely loss of basic skills . I visit plants of Caterpillar and Bosch . Old guys with rickety knees and gnarled fingers , still working . Why ? The management can’t get their replacement , so they go into pension and then the company re employes them as consultants so that they can do part time work . Can AI assist in changing the tyre ? 🤣
well i used to be able to whip a wheel off…fix a puncture in no time.
now my new car doesnt have a spare, just a can of inflation gunk
i hope it works
In my part of the world, most male drivers can and many do still change their own tires.
There is very practical reason for this. I live in what’s known as Yukiguni (The Snow Country). It snows quite deep every winter, so everyone has to change over to snow tires in November and then back to ordinary tires in March.
Most guys break out a jack and a set of spanners and do this themselves as a seasonal chore. I can’t say I’ve ever seen any gals doing it though.
“I suppose that we could argue that the industries being cut off are ones fairly limited. They are in the Middle East.”
Why, Gail – the whole world is big dissipative network, as you also say!
Yes. Our problem is that the overall system is on the way down. Pieces need to break off, one at a time. We can expect a lot of “empty shelves” in the future. Also, the loss of many current jobs, and the loss of many government programs (and perhaps the governments themselves). The system has started is downward slope in earnest, I am afraid.
Faucets will run dry in Kearny by July 15, officials warn
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ochsnNAvb-o&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D
A small Arizona town faces a critical water shortage, with officials warning Kearny could run dry by mid-July. Town officials have declared a water emergency.
It’s not only that small town….
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-mulls-hormuz-shipping-pause-preserve-talks-avoid-trump-blockade-showdown-us
Zero hedge but they often lie; I am wondering if they have been bought out
Are you sure ships are making it out? I think mainstream media is saying nothing is getting out
Nathanial, I have been wondering the same thing. The reporting has changed dramatically. I had been reading there every day for years, and now bypass.
They (ZH) have changed hands a few times in the last 16+ years (don’t ask me for links – so I’ve heard elsewhere).
More than 5 years ago ZH (together with other honeypots/provocateurs, like OrganicPrepper etc) moved their plain, TOR-accessible comments sections to highly trackable JavaScript based ones.
Good, objectively insightful/informed commenters massively left ZH years ago. Trash of every kind remained.
And no, reante, MoA isn’t it and never was (yes another biased honeypot). Jimbo turned into parody on himself. Dr. North is dead. LibertyMill is heavily administered psyop.
Any recommendations from you or anyone else on where to go.
Thanks
inside everything comes to you
OFW here – very possibly last clearnet enclave of somewhat sober-minded energy-oriented individuals (verily, I don’t count MG, Investor_Guy, Dennis_L and some other freaks/provocateurs). Occasional SubStack blogs – but those are disperse, they appear and disappear randomly (and we mention them here readily).
There are darknets, of course.
.tor forums I’m not well familiar with, but those I’ve shortly seen, mostly deal with illegal things trading and such. I2P forums that I’ve seen and sporadically participated in were good; never used/operated FreeNet (renamed Hyphanet some time ago) because I could not make it to run back in the day and nowadays I have .tor
With all that said – darknets are cumbersome to install and configure properly (although, Tor Bundle is getting there), they are extremely slow even on fast connections (due to the inherent traffic obfuscating/rerouting nature of darknets). Darknets usage is very probably putting their users on all kinds of lists. Also, and that’s very much IMHO – would those popular darknets be really anonymous and private, our Masters would simply outlaw them and would severely and publicly persecute the remaining online resistance.
P.S. I’ve made a typo in my post above – not LibertyMill but, rather, LibertyDaily:
https://thelibertydaily.com/
(seemingly, a carefully curated links/news portal honeypot for controlled political opposition, but maybe you, runawaywise, will find some useful link-outs there).
Blockade reportedly isn’t really in effect.
https://x.com/IRAN_GHANA/status/2043955468687614052
Pepe Escobar reposted
Iran in Ghana
@IRAN_GHANA
BREAKING: “Rich Starry,” a Chinese oil tanker sanctioned for shipping Iranian oil, flying the flag of Malawi — a country with no coastline — just sailed through America’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Navy, with its many “big beautiful ships,” issued repeated warnings. Reportedly, The tanker’s captain upgraded to premium to skip the ads.
EDIT: We’re being told the blockade only applies to countries the US isn’t afraid of. That list used to be long. It now fits on Trump’s McDonald’s receipt, Delivered by DoorDash.
But Trump can still talk about his blockade.
Poor Pepe. Funny as ever but clueless as usual. It’s SOP for militaries to not follow stoopid orders ahead of a coup.
I see now that wasn’t Pepe himself. Funny like Pepe tho.
JUST IN: 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Chinese tanker attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz blocked by the US Navy.
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2044149642653241731
40 min ago
Reply to the link:
Was it blocked by USA
Thoughts > No, the Chinese tanker (Rich Starry) was not blocked by the US Navy. It successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 14, 2026 (early hours, around the time the blockade began), becoming the first vessel to exit the Gulf since the US enforcement started. nbcnews.com
So maybe wishful thinking.
Lots of misinfo right now. Better wait 3 days to see what is really happening.
Yes.
Trump is desperate . Look at the paid posts and selective comments on alt media .
1 Trump to make an annoucement at 1.30 Pm . Did not happen .
2 New meeting on Thursday . No confirmation from either side .
3 . Iran offers for a 5 year mortarium instead of 20 years . Who said that ?
4 . Iran mulls stop of shipments in order to avoid US blockade . Yes , Axios a pentagon mouthpiece .
In the meanwhile all roads lead to Beijing— wh is there Spain , UAE , Russia , Vietnam . Namibia etc .
UAE ????
You are smoking some good dung …
Meanwhile southern lebanon is being turned Into Gaza and the petrodollar bribed and embassy controled goverment are cheering .
Sunni Arab ” leaders ” are worse and have less honor than subsaharan africans …. and in their plastic fiefdoms , they dont have any civil society to respond to , only imported slaves.
They have already handed over southern Syria and its aquifers to Israel through Al Jolani stooges
So the Saudi retards can waste billions in mercenary footballers , thinking that any westerner gonna watch their stupid league .
The political rhetoric is now totally off the wall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2fJqgHLTpM&t=141s @35:20
” The cheapest energy is the one you don’t use.” Ursula.
Alex, at the beginning, points out the China’s ships are going right through the blockade. China says “Iran controls the waterway. You [USA] keep out of our business.”
Admiral Dong Jun was very clear
“We are commited for peace & stability in the world. We are monitoring the situation in the middle east. Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of Strait of Hormuz. We have trade & energy agreements with Iran. We will respect & honour them and expect others to not meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”
Admiral Dong Jun is also the Minister of Defence, so the weight of his words should not be ignored.
Interestingly, on the same day a new law, combining and updating 3 other laws was announced.
“Regulations of the People’s Republic of China to Countermand Improper Extraterritorial Jurisdiction by Foreign Countries”.
Put the two together and it’s a big statement(coupled with more cleaning house).
https://cloudwoods1.substack.com/p/pla-intervenes-in-hormuz-iran-against
The issue here is that this is evidently post-action rhetoric (1 1/2 month). If they carried such ~policies say in the first two weeks of the conflict, well that would be a real thing to consider.
No, it’s relevant to the situation now and in the future. To say otherwise, is to believe msm drivel(like posting a video of two helicopters flying over a field and calling it confirmation of a rescue, when all it confirmed, was helicopters can fly over fields).
One of the reasons I feel it is so sad Gails work has not received widespread attention is the misconceptions it uncovers lead to fundamental misunderstanding. These misunderstandings are very convenient. Gail has done a admirable job of keeping her analysis objective to counter but to no avail.
Many many commentators are sounding the alarm that ceasing passage of oil through the strait will create a “economic crisis”. This down place the criticality of the situation. Economics are perceived as something man made where a twerk here a patch there a lot more debt everywhere and we will be running on all cylinders. (Pun intended) On the other hand the objective truth is that this is a physical situation. Energy inputs are what allows industrial civilization. Cessation of energy inputs creates damage to supply chains and these are real physical things consumed by people with real physical butterfly or ripple effects not some abstract formula that can be fixed like a formula on a chalkboard.
What this means is that while extremely brilliant people like Mearshiemer know what is coming and are sounding the alarm the terminology does not exists that communicates the criticality of the situation. It would be a term that conveys the horror of war. The horror of starvation. “Worse than the great depression” does not work to communicate the criticality of the paths being chosen. After all the great depression went away. It is perceived as a temporary condition created by things within our control. Comparing the current situation to the great depression is like comparing a house cat to a tiger. There were gobs of affordable easy to extract energy after the great depression and that is the primary thing that allowed its end. Now add the very dangerous myth “WW2 ended the great depression”. As if war needless consumption of resources and wholesale death creates prosperity. While maximum power principle does support the belief objectively albeit ignoring the suffering of war it ignores that maximum power principle can be also achieved with conservation. Maximum power principle achieved solely through unchecked consumption leads to accelerated depletion of resources. Not enough chairs. Exactly where we are in a nuclear armed world. That is where regarding war as a universal holy Grail a universal cure all economic antibiotic leads.
The terminology being used about consequences of oil cessation are definitely ignorant perhaps deceptive. A very convenient terminology but one that leaves the public fundamentally uninformed. Curiously there seems to be a intuitive understanding about what is coming. A feeling. What psychiatrist would classify as anxiety. Because of course resources are infinite we will consume forever of ever increasing amounts and should problems be encountered a bit of chalk will provide immediate and lasting solutions. What we regard as intuition can be a superior understanding but not always. There are certainly understandings that are natural human abilities that are outside of our area of understanding.
ITMD,
Good summary, and as far as understanding…. when the energy supply finally gets squeezed, nearly everyone will know.
“Even a dog knows the difference between being kicked and being stumbled over.”
― Oliver Wendell Holmes
You are pointing out a problem that is difficult to make people believe. The easy assumption is that the future will always be like the past.
To explain the situation, I probably need to go back to the image of the economy being built up in layers, with new layers added on top, as innovations and more efficient ways of doing things are discovered. The problem is that layers underneath disappear. We no longer need buggy whips, if we are no longer traveling by horse and buggy. We no longer need floppy drive readers, if we are no longer using floppy drives.
When there is not enough to go around, some would-be buyers must to be left out. This could happen, either by low wages or by high prices. Economists assume the result is by high prices, but this is not necessarily the case. If a larger and larger share of the population lives only on subsistence income, they will not be able to afford anything but the bare minimum. They certainly won’t buy vehicles, or fuel to operate the vehicles. Oil prices will tend to fall low, because the many poor people aren’t buying cars or the fuel to operate them. They certainly aren’t buying airplane tickets, either.
It is harder to see that If prices fall too low for producers of oil, the system will tend to crash down. I was arguing in this article that oil prices have recently been too low for Middle Eastern producers. “Too low for producers” needs to include taxes required by governments. Many people want to look at Energy Return on Energy Invested, or other similar narrow measures of costs of energy extraction. If a country’s major industry is oil extraction and export, prices need to be high enough that the country can collect adequate tax revenue to keep the whole system going.
There is also the issue of the “size of the tap,” versus the “size of the resource.” The amount of a resource that can be extracted at a given time is very much determined by the size of the tap. Recent bombing has been destructive of how much can be extracted. This is obvious for helium, with the destruction in Qatar, but it may be a factor in other types of resource extraction.
The image required, Gail, is The Ladder (of complexity): we climbed up it, now stand teetering at the top, and looking down realise that we kicked away all the broad and solid lower rungs as we ascended. to our precarious pinnacle.
This is the West and all the advanced industrialised regions today.
However, this is not quite true universally: in some parts of the world, our fellow men and women are still on the lower rungs and they, all things considered, stand the best chance of survival.
I agree that in some sense, those at the lowest rungs stand the best chance of survival.
They have the best knowledge of how to farm with modern inputs, for example. But these areas tend to be very overpopulated because they have high birth rates and modern medicine has allowed many to stay alive. Also, they have gotten used to imported food and fertilizer, allowing population to balloon more than it might otherwise.
So a few can survive in these areas, but not a big percentage. People in advanced economies will have to learn how to farm with what is available. That will be a challenge, but quite a few subsistence farmers have been trying to figure this out.
Yes, it has been figured out bigly already.
The problem is that at some (near) future point this will be as always misused by the selfish and greedy for their own advantage and chasing fake upper status. Similarly to all other ~advances turned exploitation tool by said human-iods..
” those at the lowest rungs stand the best chance of survival.”
Gail , how low ? The migrant labour in India went back from cooking on LPG to cooking on coal , wood and cowdung pellets . What is below this ? What are their chances of survival , below this ?
If only wood is used, forests quickly get chopped down. This is the problem. The method that works for a few cannot work for the current population. How does a group solve this difficulty?
Below cow dung?
That’s a tough question.
Dog turds?
Chicken manure?
Rat droppings?
Cooking fuel manufacturing creating product.
https://www.alamy.com/rural-woman-applying-cow-dung-used-as-fuel-for-fire-on-the-wall-of-a-village-hut-at-a-tribal-village-in-west-bengal-india-image341861045.html
except that the rest of us might fall on them
“You can print all the money or create all the credit you want, but try stuffing paper bills down your gas tank and see how far you go.”?
We estimate that governments, companies, and consumers collectively drew 250 million barrels—or 6.6 mbd—of reserves over March and the first 10 days of April to cushion the shock, with Asia bearing the brunt of the tightening (Figure 1). But that buffer is finite.
At this juncture, even if refiners double the cuts from here, OECD commercial crude inventories could fall toward operational minimums by early May.
At this point, the system is no longer absorbing the shock—it is simply running down its buffers while demand is forcibly rationed. If refinery cuts rise from around 2 mbd currently to 3 mbd in April and then to nearly 8 mbd in May, commercial inventories may last through the end of May.
Conversely, the required throughput reduction could be smaller if China opts to release additional crude inventories into the system beyond the currently assumed 1 mbd.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2043749470349996288/photo/1
So it is possible that China will be able to keep the system operating a little longer, if it releases more oil and modeled. There are a lot of things we don’t know for certain.
Hackers Leak Photos of Former Israeli Military Chief Showing Meetings in Jordan and Qatar, Military Base Visits
Handala, an Iranian hacking group, said Thursday it breached the phone of former Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi and obtained thousands of sensitive images and videos from within Israel’s top command structure, including photos showing meetings in Jordan and Qatar, touring military bases, and presenting gifts to senior Arab officials.
These are people in Iran, making a claim that they have hacked Israeli phones. Has anyone seen enough of this to confirm that this is true? Is this another AI adventure? Today, we can compose a photo seeming to show two people together who were not really together.
Ask Kash Patel ,
https://x.com/HPRRed/status/2042130706768281971
Anyone who isn’t a banyard animal and knows anything about Middle Eastern geopolitics knows whose interests these shoddy, feudal regimes serve.
https://ibb.co/p6WG2qZ8
Isn’t Jeffrey Epstein in one of the photos? Or perhaps I am imagining something.
In all of them
https://ibb.co/N21cwCFG
In all the photos …
https://ibb.co/N21cwCFG
All those Bedouin “slavedog” kings belong to the Epstein Plutocracy Inc., including countries that haven’t officially normalized relations with Israel, such as Qatar.
Everything that has happened in the Middle East over the last few decades has been planned together: Libya, Syria, the al-Qaeda cousins Jolani hordes , ISIS, etc., etc.
And recently, Erdogan has joined them despite his public stances.
The failed Russian operation in Ukraine was the final nail in Syria’s coffin, and after Syria came what we’re seeing now.
There have been no more pathetic colonial lackeys than all those tribal families; even their masters despise them.
But there were idiots saying that these dogs were going to abandon the petrodollar, etc., etc.
Aren’t the United Anglo-Hebrew Emirates part of the BRICS?
Just so you can see what that organization is good for
True, yet you have to also acknowledge several internal re-shuffles or direct coups inside top govs happened in recent years in the wider Gulfies realm.
CHN protested diplomatically here and there, perhaps they still focus on the very long game instead while in contrast the E-P Inc. is evidently in mad dash for any extra time extension just for now..
Also was not there massive ( largest ever ) purge in CHN top mil. brass just ~1-2yrs ago? Could it be at least in part related to grand fiasco in GCC realm ?, while W-msm depicting it as mere power struggle among these ever-corrupt Chinese elite circles..
The first real test for the US blockade is coming right up.
Elpis is widely known as a shadow fleet tanker.
It is leaving.
TesT , test .
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2043745855912718724/photo/1
FAFO .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fearing-iranian-escalation-red-sea-saudis-push-trump-call-hormuz-blockade
It turned around …. I wonder what comes next
Did it turn around? Grok says it went thru. What’s your source? https://x.com/fedwashreserve/status/2043815812918599752