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The war with Iran is not going well. It is difficult to supply US troops with adequate food and other necessities. With summer arriving soon, the region will soon be an even more inhospitable place for ground troops to fight. An underlying problem is that the world economy was reaching resource limits even before the Iran War began, adding to the difficulties.
The most pressing resource limit is distillate fuel oil–an industry term for what we think of as diesel and jet fuel. This fuel is heavily used in transportation. It is also used extensively in agriculture and industry. Somehow, the system needs to cut back on these fuels for international trade so that more fuel is available for agriculture and industry.
President Trump of the US and President Xi of China will be meeting in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting would seem to be the perfect time to start reorganizing the world with shorter trade routes, so that the world economy uses less fuel for transportation. China and the US are the two great powers in the world. Keeping trade mostly within the two areas shown in Figure 1 would be a way of using fuel oil more sparingly.
An advantage of such a plan, besides saving on fuel, is that it could stop the Iran War without clearly declaring one side the winner or loser. In this post, I will attempt to explain the situation further.
[1] Based on the ideas of Dr. Mohammed Marandi, I believe that China might be able to mediate a settlement between the US and Iran.
Dr. Marandi was born in the United States of Iranian parents. He currently lives in Iran, where he is a professor at the University of Tehran. In the video, One Country Quietly Won this War, he points out that, often, when two countries battle each other, neither one emerges as the clear winner. Both of them are damaged by the war. The actual winner may be a country that does not seem to be directly involved in the war.
In the video referenced above, Dr. Marandi discusses three historical situations in which a nation not directly involved in a conflict gained stature by being the “adult in the room,” when two other nations battled each other. In this case, Dr. Marandi believes that China could very well be the country that can exert enough pressure on both sides to get them to accept a proposed solution. He says that China has acted behind the scenes to bring about the ceasefire, and that Trump has acknowledged China’s role.
Dr. Marandi suggests the idea that the upcoming meeting of the two presidents might be an opportune moment to make major steps toward a mutually agreed settlement. I believe that the underlying problem is that there isn’t enough energy (particularly oil) to support a world population of over eight billion. Dividing up markets in the way I have suggested would at least somewhat alleviate the shortage. Of course, there may be other terms of a settlement, as well. In addition, not all the terms may be determined precisely at this time.
[2] The world doesn’t have enough diesel and jet fuel to maintain the current level of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Figure 2 shows that per capita diesel and jet fuel started to drop at the time of the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009. Their supply took a larger step down in 2020, and it hasn’t completely recovered. In 2026, the Iran War has taken out more crude oil supply, for an unknown period of time.
Diesel and jet fuel are both very important as transportation fuels. Diesel is also important in agriculture because it provides the power needed for heavy machinery to till fields, even under the most adverse conditions. Diesel provides the power needed for large commercial trucks, many trains, and ships. Earth moving equipment is also typically operated by diesel fuel.
If the amount of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific could be greatly reduced, it would help alleviate the shortage of distillates. Of course, the tourist trade would also need to be greatly reduced. With recent spikes in aviation fuel prices, many flights are being cut. Some airlines, including Spirit Airlines in the US, are going bankrupt. The problem is starting to solve itself, but more changes will be needed.
[3] Looking at population and oil supplies, the Americas seems likely to come out somewhat ahead.
[3a] Comparing the populations of the two areas, the World ex Americas is much larger, and its population is growing faster.
President Xi (leading one hemisphere) would get the very large and still rapidly growing part of the world population. President Trump would get a smaller and less rapidly growing share of the world population. Between 2021 and 2024, world population grew an average of 0.6% per year in the Americas, and an average of 0.9% per year in the World ex Americas.
[3b] The Americas seem to have an advantage with respect to crude oil production.
It makes sense to look at energy amounts on a per-capita basis because the quantity needed depends on the number of people requiring the benefits of transportation, agriculture, and industry. On this basis, crude oil production of the Americas has clearly been outshining that of the World ex Americas. It is higher on a per-capita basis. In addition, the amount available has been increasing in recent years.
Figure 5, below, shows total crude oil production (not per capita).
Figure 5 suggests that since 2005, crude oil production for the World ex Americas has hardly increased. In fact, total extraction has decreased since 2019. A person viewing this data might conclude that crude oil production in this area may already be past its peak.
On the other hand, Figure 5 shows that oil production of the Americas has increased by about 65% since 2005. Many people believe that US shale production will soon decline. At the same time, however, increases seem likely in several other countries in the Americas, including Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. Thus, while crude oil production for the Americas may decline in the near future, its decline is likely to be gradual.
[3c] Crude oil production by geographical area outside of the Americas shows declining production in all areas.
Figure 6 shows that Europe’s crude oil production started its permanent decline in 2001. Asia-Pacific’s production hit a maximum in 2010, and it has been declining since. Africa’s peak oil production took place in 2008, and it has been mostly declining since.
Russia+, which I use to refer to Russia plus nearby countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, has an unusual production pattern. Its crude oil production started to decline in 1989, two years before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (This collapse in crude oil production likely contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.) Crude oil production for Russia+ rose from 1998 to 2019.
Russia+’s production took a big step down in 2020, and it has not been able to recover since. A person might think that Russia+’s oil production was post peak, even before the 2022 conflict with Ukraine broke out. If an oil exporter doesn’t have enough oil to export, it tends to create financial problems within an economy. Participating in a war can appear to mitigate the country’s problems.
Many people assume that the Middle East has endless inexpensive-to-produce crude oil. I don’t think that this is the case. Crude oil production of the Middle East (Figure 6 above) hit two similar peaks in 2016 and 2018, and it has been lower in years since then. I think that Middle Eastern oil production is likely past peak partly because of depletion issues and partly because most countries in the area require high taxes on oil exports to provide subsidies for their ever-growing populations. This leads OPEC to try to maintain high prices. Lower crude oil production since 2018 is consistent with the hypothesis that oil production for the Middle East is mostly post-peak.
One additional difficulty of the World ex Americas is that it is so heavily populated that it cannot access tight oil that might be available without displacing a large number of residents. Another difficulty is that very old wells, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Iran, are ones that it might not be possible to restart if they are shut in for an extended time.
[4] In terms of mining and manufacturing, the Americas seems to come out behind the World ex Americas.
The World ex Americas has rapidly ramped up mining and manufacturing. Coal has been the preferred industrial fuel, with natural gas consumption also increasing.
Figure 7 shows that the energy consumption of the World ex Americas started increasing more rapidly after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The consumption of coal and natural gas has especially increased.
The economies of the Americas have tended to shift towards service economies. Emphasis has been placed on fuel efficiency. Homes are now better insulated, light bulbs are more efficient, and engines of vehicles are more efficient. As a result, energy consumption within the Americas has tended to stay flat (Figure 8).
I have used the same scale on Figure 8 as on Figure 7 to emphasize how low energy consumption for the Americas is now, relative to the rest of the world. After US oil prices first rose to a high level in 1973, the US started transferring manufacturing to lower-wage countries. Southeast Asian countries began to be favored after 2001. Moving manufacturing abroad helped hold down US energy consumption and helped make the cost of goods to the consumer cheaper.
The problem today is that moving so much manufacturing elsewhere has made it difficult for the Americas to go back to producing its own goods, including clothing, furniture, and transformers for electrical systems. Supply lines for a particular item, such as a refrigerator, often run through many countries around the world.
[5] The full transition to the configuration shown on Figure 1 could take well over 100 years.
Changes, such as new supply lines and the new placement of major population areas, cannot happen very quickly. But I expect that some of the same underlying principles that guided these decisions in the past will continue to guide them in the future.
For example, infrastructure (roads, bridges, pipelines, and (today) long distance electricity transmission lines) seems to be the most difficult part of an economy to maintain because of the huge amount of energy required. Before the days of fossil fuels, I understand that slave labor was often used to build and maintain infrastructure. Similarly, slave labor was sometimes used to staff the mines needed to support the building of such infrastructure. As we lose fossil fuels, we will need to think about reducing our reliance on infrastructure.
One low-infrastructure approach used in the past was to build cities near bodies of water, so that fewer roads would be needed. Boats could be used to transport goods without building roads or bridges. If fish were available, they could be caught and used for food. In Figure 1, I am imagining that we will head back in this direction, with cities especially along navigable bodies of water and the ocean.
Unless we discover ways to replace fossil fuel energy, I would expect that the system will tend to go down in the reverse order of when it was put up. In general, electricity was last to be added, after coal, oil, and gas from coal. Electrification was first built in cities; then electricity transmission lines were added to provide electricity to rural areas. Above-ground lines tend to be damaged in storms, leading to a need for frequent repairs. Because of this issue, I would expect rural electricity to disappear quite quickly, unless it is generated at the location where it is used.
Natural gas shipped as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was added very late. Its cost tends to be much higher than that of pipeline gas. I expect it to disappear quite quickly.
A full transition to the two trading zones shown on Figure 1 would require a huge number of changes in supply lines. A 2025 chart by Visual Capitalist shows how much control China has over critical minerals. It states, “China controls key materials such as graphite, rare earths, and gallium–essential for green technologies and defense industries.” While the US has started working on its own production of minerals, it will also need to develop the processing capability for these minerals. Putting all of this in place will likely take many decades. This is a significant factor in the 100-year estimate.
[6] If energy supplies are limited, I would expect population centers closest to fuel sources to be especially favored.
Writers today talk about possibly running short of diesel and jet fuel in a few weeks or months. Clearly, if a population center is at a location where there are both oil wells and refineries for the oil from those wells, the area has a better chance of having fuel than an island in the middle of the Pacific with nothing to sell other than tourism. Thus, Houston, Texas, will likely have fuel, even when models suggest there will be shortfalls in many places.
Often writers concerned about resource shortages talk about the core and the periphery. The core needs to be near whatever source of energy is available that can be used to help grow crops and transport goods. At this point, oil is the fuel that is closest to filling this need. Electricity is a nice-to-have, and it can provide services like refrigeration for food. But it is not good for paving roads or building bridges. So, it can only add to the mix, not substitute completely for oil. Slave labor is the closest substitute for oil that the world has discovered. We would rather not go back to using such an approach.
[7] I am concerned that a major downward economic step will be necessary in the upcoming months and years, but I am hopeful that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on May 14-15 can help smooth the way.
We are at a point at which it is clear that the current organization of the global economy is not working. I hope that the meeting between Trump and Xi will help put an end to fighting in the Middle East. I also hope it will help pave the way for a new path forward.
I expect that the path ahead will be a difficult one, both for the people in the Americas and the people in the World ex Americas. While the US has considerable energy supplies, it lacks manufacturing capability for many everyday goods. The US is also lacking in many critical minerals, especially those used in making high-tech products. With its high wages, it will need extremely high prices, unless processes can be made very efficient.
The World ex Americas may have an even more difficult step down. Its oil supply was already more stretched before the Iran War. Its overpopulation problem seems to be worse than that of the Americas. The World ex Americas is more directly affected by the damage done in the Middle East and the resulting loss of oil supply. And there seem to be many groups looking for war, even if the US leaves.
Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that the upcoming meeting will have a beneficial effect, both in the short term and in working toward a longer-term solution.
‘“Another thing that I exposed, is that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama – Iran was a proxy for them. Hillary Clinton delivered highly-specialized steel through Victor Pinchuk in the Ukraine, Interpipe for the use of Iranian centrifuges. We have it documented…Congressman Steve Stockman provided me with all the documentation that she got caught doing that.
“Hillary Clinton was helping build Iran’s nuclear program. That’s why Trump wants the ‘dust’, to find out where that uranium came from, because they can track that back to see that it came from Hillary Clinton’s cabal… Iran has been a proxy of this Deep State.”’?
https://forbiddennews.substack.com/p/the-shadow-government-of-the-military
It happened this morning in my regional capital:
Early Morning Shooting at a Gas Station in Trenčín: The Area Is Cordoned Off, Police Are Searching for the Shooter
A police investigation is currently underway in Trenčín following an incident that occurred in the early morning hours at a local Shell gas station. An unknown man arrived at the scene, aimed a gun at the entrance door of the station, and fired. According to available information, at least one of the shots struck the door frame directly.
The attacker fled the scene immediately after the shooting and remains at large. The police have not yet specified what motivated the man to commit this act, nor is it clear whether any employees or customers were inside the building at the time.
The entire area around the gas station is currently cordoned off and closed to the public. Police units are working intensively at the scene, securing important evidence and carrying out all necessary investigative procedures to solve this case.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/816357-ranna-strelba-na-benzinke-v-trencine-miesto-je-uzavrete-policia-po-strelcovi-patra/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_bleskove_spravy
Photos:
https://www.noviny.sk/krimi/1221219-strelba-na-cerpacej-stanici-v-trencine-pachatel-vystrelil-na-budovu-a-usiel
western values. the slovaks wanted them all along.
western energy efficiency with technology up to limits. then collapse…
War is over!
Even according to the BBC.
The markets are going to love this!
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj0grpyg4v1t
Are we getting too far over our skis? Hasn’t this happened before? We have a deal etc… I am not trying to be a negative Nancy but it just seems like for this deal to go through Trump and Netanyahu would have to eat a whole lot of Crow! According to professor Mirandi the agreement says that there is 12 billion to Iran followed by the other 12 billion and talk about Nukes later. U.s bases have to shut down and leave. Iran gets to charge money for going through the strait and Israel has to behave! That’s a lot!! I don’t see it happening…, all this has to be agreed upon by Friday! Might be a good idea to short the market in a couple of days!!
Israel will bomb Iran in the next 48 hours.
A large fusion bomb on Tehran will get the show back on track.
Well, their defense chief Itamar Ben Gvir said he/they are not party to such US-Iran deal anyway (w.out security clause for them), trollolol..
Several fresh msm articles out there with varied level of defiance cited:
search: ” Itamar Ben Gvir iran deal ”
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and even before that:
[ Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents, commenting before the announcement of the cease-fire, were less charitable.
“A catastrophe from Israel’s perspective,” Avigdor Liberman, a former Israeli defense minister and a right-wing politician, wrote in a social media post on Sunday. Once an ally of Mr. Netanyahu, he is now a bitter critic.
Yair Lapid, the centrist leader of Israel’s parliamentary opposition and a former top government minister, said he hoped the reports about the agreement with Iran were not true. “But if they are,” he said in a statement, “this is one of the most shocking failures of Israel’s foreign and security policy.” ]
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/14/world/middleeast/israel-us-iran-deal.html
Usa and Israel already won with the fall of Syria , without that, the attacks of 2025 and 2026 in iran wouldn’t have happened.
Putinberg, the Chabad worshipper, didn’t let Assad open the Golan front after oct 7th and after that , he was sold out.
resitance axis is dead , America wont leave the middle east , petrodollar Will continue . Gaza destroyed , southern lebanon destroyed, khamenei dead , maduro in prison , Venezuela oil in the hands of the US army .
Russia infraestructure smashed daily with nato drones … The multipolar crap is finished .
putin and his Abramovich tribal oligarchs are Happy , lazard the chabad rabbi is static .
prigozhin was right
No su35s for Iran either ….
only solution is for the han master race to take over jewish owned russia mongol style
Well, I’ll try limit myself only to the concluding hint, where it is true from body language, Vlad is evidently in slightly ” junior ” position while in meeting / session with Xi, although both are of the comparatively similar rough(-er) start into their early life vs most other potentates could imagine.
In pop-culture it would be called [ Godzilla Meets Kong ] eventually forming double team, and then jointly in grand finale gang-banging on uber-villain anemic elderly clinician Prof. Draculescu ( P.O. box US-EUR ) ..
only solution is for the han master race to take over jewish owned russia
Yes, please!!!!
Oil prices could collapse. The saw tooth decline of oil as it bounces high to low; much as Gail has theorised?
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/what-if-oil-prices-never-hit-150
I agree with B.
There are a lot of things going on. Assuming that oil prices will go up and up is not consistent with what we have seen in the past. It is not consistent with inadequate oil supply tending to cause recession or depression and low prices. There are a lot of things that could get in the way of buying oil. B mentions the possibility of inadequate dollar availability being one of many potential problems.
Do we believe this?
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-to-pull-out-of-talks-after-israel-strikes-beiruts-outskirts-d0390e22
Trump Says Iran Deal Is Imminent, but Tehran So Far Hasn’t Confirmed
President says in an interview that he plans to issue a statement soon confirming U.S. has agreed to a deal with Iran
Epoch Times claims:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/us-iran-reach-peace-deal-6047802
US, Iran Reach Peace Deal
A peace deal between the United States and Iran has been reached, President Donald Trump said on June 14.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday.
It seems the (pre)deal has been reached, lot of confirmations from various angles coming in..
Important role played by this fixer, PM of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif.
His brother used to PM as well, powerful family.. , incl. lot of fin scandals.
The bottom line Mr. Shehbaz Sharif is the best outfitted politician on this planet right now, check his wardrobe style, absolutely beyond top class.
If there will be any ET visitation – I nominate him to lead the earthlink welcoming committee ( seriously )!
https://im.rediff.com/news/2026/jun/13ishaq-dar.jpg?w=670&h=900
https://h1.nu/1rBqB
“Sharif don’t like it!”
I think this golden oldie by the Clash says it all about the ongoing ME conflict. And best of all, no Jews, Arabs or innocent animals were harmed during the making of this video.
Apparently, the wandering armadillo was included to symbolize the band’s deep, affectionate connection to the great state of Texas.
WSJ now says (same link),
U.S. and Iran Say They Have Reached a Deal to Stop Fighting
U.S. to lift blockade while Iran opens Strait of Hormuz, Trump says; signing expected Friday
Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened on Friday, indicating in a social-media post the time was needed “for purposes of mine removal.” In an earlier post, Trump said that Iran’s restrictions on shipping in the Strait and the U.S. naval blockade on Iran would be simultaneously and immediately lifted.
“Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED,” said Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of lead mediator Pakistan, in a social-media post. “Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
The government in Tehran later confirmed the deal had been struck. “The text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalized,” said Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi. He said Iranian threats of attacks on Israel had put pressure on the U.S. to reach a deal. Trump on Sunday called on Israeli officials to cease attacks inside Lebanon, something Iran suggested was key to its acceptance of the deal.
Editor’s note:
This piece is part of the “Blowback: How the Iran war may change the world” series, which features original analyses and policy recommendations by experts on the immediate and prospective long-term fallout from the 2026 Iran war.
..
.
Oil companies in the United States and abroad are profiting from higher prices for crude oil and fuels today, but they face a far more uncertain future market environment. Prior to the conflict, the oil market was in a glut, with supply exceeding demand and low prices. That situation has been turned on its head.
[ However, several large international oil companies have announced that they are not changing their investment plans in response to the crisis. ]
..
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Samantha Gross and Ryan Beane
June 8, 2026
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/from-chokepoint-to-crisis-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-global-oil-markets/
I notice that these two authors expect oil prices will rise in the future.
“Prices for crude oil and refined products will almost certainly rise further as time passes. Even if the strait is reopened soon, the oil market will take months to normalize as damaged infrastructure is repaired, stopped production is restarted, vessels travel to the areas where they are needed, and commercial inventories are replenished.”
If loss of oil, sulfur, and fertilizer are problems, much of the world could fall into serious recession or depression. Oil prices would likely fall, rather than rise. This is a connection that people do not make. Alternatively, war could break out, even to a greater extent than today.
the elders will get the price up higher this is why the war has ended obviously a new financial system to ushering the new world order is now on the cards.
It is 10.30 am in Washington and 6 pm in Tehran . Trump’s birthday gift of the MOU is NOT in the mail . 😂
The Iranians knew he would “show off ” the deal at the G7 , so they gave him the middle finger . Now he faces the other suffering members ( not that they matter ) at the summit tomorrow . In the meanwhile the road to tank bottoms continues .
Trump says he will sign a deal today with or without Iran . 🤣
Trump needs to do something to keep the system going. Signing his version of the deal might be what is necessary.
He and BeBe sure put a monkey wrench in the system….. Donnie’s back is against the 🧱.
Time is ticking 😭 and not on his side.
Doubt very much this so called “deal” will pan out. Was listening to a YouTube video and it’s like 2 pages and Obama’s agreement was over 140 pages(which Donnie tossed out….go figure…only 138 more pages to go. This is probably all window dressing and Israel will cause it to be broken.
Donnie’s health is failing too, ..oh what a mess they got us all into…
In the Art of the deal Trump talks about if you believe it ; it will come true. That seems to fit his MO through out this whole catastrophe. It really is sick what he and Nutinyahoo have done.
Read Norman Vincent Peale’s The Power of Positive Thinking, published in 2003.
The blurb says, “An international bestseller with over five million copies in print, The Power of Positive Thinking has helped men and women around the world to achieve fulfillment in their lives through Dr. Norman Vincent Peale’s powerful message of faith and inspiration.”
Dr. Peale demonstrates the power of faith in action. With the practical techniques outlined in this book, you can energize your life—and give yourself the initiative needed to carry out your ambitions and hopes. You’ll learn how to:
· Believe in yourself and in everything you do
· Build new power and determination
· Develop the power to reach your goals
· Break the worry habit and achieve a relaxed life
· Improve your personal and professional relationships
· Assume control over your circumstances
· Be kind to yourself
LOL. He’s been watching to many of those LEGO videos on repeat late at night.
Glad your entertained, keep on LOL…
It’s all fun and games until someone(like yourself) gets hurt, 😜 as they say.
Yeah good call Mike. I have indeed been hurt by today’s events.
I sincerely apologize to the board and to Jr in particular for my unacceptable behavior.
Reante> peak times often tend to stir excited argumentation, sometime even emotions, if you feel need to apologize, not at all, I did not take it personally.
Appreciate that generosity friend. You made an excellent connection regarding the Polish announcement. It’ll be interesting to see how supply plays out over the next few months if the ME geopolitics remain stabilized during that period.
This may interest Kulm. Land ownership in Britain undergoes constant and large shifts. The idea that a landowning class is ‘forever’ simply isn’t true. It isn’t just the wholesale shifts in ownership like in the Norman Conquest the everyday churn of ownership.
“It has always been the case, says William Murray, Viscount Stormont, heir to the Earl of Mansfield, that the status quo will be disrupted. ‘Everyone was nouveau at some point. As long as someone isn’t literally digging up the entire Cotswolds, the wheel needs to keep turning.'”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06/14/death-of-the-aristocracy/
The decline and fall of the British aristocracy
The final hereditary peers have gone and billionaires are buying up our stately homes and historic estates. What do the nobility do now?
Every so often, the scion of an aristocratic family espouses the death of the institution. Last month it was the turn of socialite the Hon Daphne Guinness, daughter of Jonathan Guinness, 3rd Baron Moyne. She described how the slightly scruffy aristocratic world of her birth had “all gone”.
Is she right? Have the upper classes, with their – to quote Guinness – “old mystique” truly been replaced by money-worshipping nouveaus? A peer of the muddy-car variety rolls his eyes: “This is the sort of thing that is said every now and again… people tend to want the world to be as it was when they were 21.”
Of course, Guinness is right that things have changed in her lifetime as far as upper-class prominence in public life is concerned. Just as it ever was, new entrants have squeezed into the mainframe.
At the turn of the 20th century it was American heiresses who were sneered at until their money proved useful for the upkeep of English country houses. Then came the “beerage” – the brewing families made peers, among them the Guinnesses.
And then, following economic upheaval in the middle of the century, international money poured into Britain’s old world – Russians in the form of the designer Leon Max who bought Lord Hesketh’s Easton Neston for £15m in 2004, and then, more subtly, Scandinavians and other rewilding fans, who swept through Scotland buying up estates.
‘New money’s turned the Cotswolds into the Hamptons’
Today, the retail tycoon Anders Povlsen’s Scottish landholdings surpass the Duke of Buccleuch’s still-vast estates, but the duke is relaxed about this. Speaking to me for my book on the history of the British aristocracy, Heirs and Graces, he told me that “dispersal [of land] to the right people for good reasons should be welcomed”.
Part of Guinness’s gripe is about the particular impact of new money on the Cotswolds, which, she says, now “feels like the Hamptons… lots of very, very posh houses with lots of security fences.” The combined Soho House and Daylesford effect – the latter run by the “very tasteful” Carole Bamford, as one peer describes her – is well documented, though, another Cotswolds peer adds that “not everyone has a valet hoovering the footwell of their Range Rover”.
Elsewhere, hedge fund managers including Chris Rokos, the billionaire founder of Rokos Capital Management, have bought big houses to do up and are spending their money on local tradesmen, while others have bought sporting estates. As one peer puts it: “Everyone would like their heirs to marry [the daughter of a hedge funder] I can tell you!”
It has always been the case, says William Murray, Viscount Stormont, heir to the Earl of Mansfield, that the status quo will be disrupted. “Everyone was nouveau at some point. As long as someone isn’t literally digging up the entire Cotswolds, the wheel needs to keep turning.”
In bars in St James’s, says Roderick Balfour, 5th Earl of Balfour, people can be heard to mutter about folk like this, saying, “‘How can you stand those people, they’re so ghastly?’ [But] I say, ‘They do far more for this country than most of the people propping up the bars’. These are the new aristocrats.”
Virtually all of his family’s land in Scotland, he notes, was “squandered” during his great-great-uncle Arthur Balfour’s lifetime and now much of it belongs to the Danish Kristiansen family who own Lego.
… ‘Titles now are only useful for booking a table’
The public, believing, like Guinness, that the aristocracy has “gone”, responds in kind. “No one has ever been deferential to me,” says Lord Stormont. “If they have been it’s because they know me and they’re taking the mickey.”
In Cornwall, Lady Camilla Osborne, daughter of John Osborne, 11th Duke of Leeds, is never addressed as such. “It’s automatically Christian names and I wouldn’t have it any other way,” she says. Deference died in 1963, adds Lady Celestria Hales, daughter of Anthony Noel, 5th Earl of Gainsborough, referring to a famous concept in British political and social history.
“I think people aren’t as impressed as they used to be,” agrees Lord Balfour. “People often say titles are useful for booking a table, but even that’s gone out of the window.”
.. ” titles are useful for booking a table ”
The world is in stampeding flux, not long ago ( few centuries ), it was absolutely normal that even meager upper-mid ranking nobility was using large tracts of land just for personal joy-activity like multi-day hunting parties ( w. oversleeping and hard ~festivities ), almost no access or other agri/forestry allowed there on the acreage throughout the year seasons, meant as non biz sanctuary mostly. They often put there nice high end lodges, which now completely disappeared, or were abandoned – turned ruin during the industrializing phase change of 18/19th century, or in some rarer case kept preserved as hotels and cultural spot venues to our times.
In my area & youth we ventured into one such ruin of former multi-story architecturally devised lodge, the cellar was absolutely gigantic space, only few hazy clues on the walls/ceiling/floor remaining about the former exquisite storage facilities winery/.. , also ft. evidently in the past animal butchering equip. former site etc. In above ground floors I guess at least few dozen gents + lackeys were able to live there for weeks nicely blocked from the disruptions of the ” outside world “..
Enormous excess, yet still, kind of more human scaled world vs today’s jet-set cr@tins commanding far away wars on tablets..
Yes, enormous excess for the few, but it maintained the land in a relatively pristine condition by keeping the riffraff at bay. They can be worse than rabbits for ruining the landscape.
Aristos selling to foreign billionaires. I do not know how much% of such transactions took place, but the landed gentry who does not show up in gossip journals still seem to be doing well.
Like the painting of William Hogarth, some aristos mess up and fall away. To be replaced by another scion of the upper class never from the below.
Look at the long lines for gas in Russia.
Only $20 bucks or 5 gallons/20 liters per purchase.
https://x.com/visionergeo/status/2065781388293316890
sorry, there are no gas lines anywhere that I can check. I was in Yaroslavl Friday and local stations near my town, of course, get gas last compared to rosneft stations or stations on M-8. I just gassed up at a local station because these trips to Yaroslavl in a jeep are expensive. Restrictions are at (for me) about 160 liters (1 fill up plus 100 liters). Most definitely there were no 20 liters limits two hours ago halfway between Moscow and Vologda. I bought 50 liters.
Good looking out. keep up posted if something changes.
I can recall the ‘Russia will collapse in two months, and there will be a coup against Putin’ propaganda in 2015..
At that time a Russian friend had just visited Moscow and said that he had never seen Russians so happy and confident.
Propaganda is so very boring, but they keep on churning it out….
Agree .
The long-range infrastructure attacks are mostly show-off for the foreign sponsors to keep the funds and intel flowing into UKR.. While at this stage RU re-used it in PR judo move and send that latest [ UK+FR+DE ] top diplomatic begging outfit to convene only w. deputy staffers and into some cubicle, hah.
The pic of the sad trio in front of the bldg in Moscow tells the nature of it.. British chap looks like a defected poet society material, the FR a dungeon-creep psycho and DE as dogcatcher-butcher..
Link?
I gather, you ought to have had it on the msm in more detail ? It took place like ~5dayz ago, they initially asked for urgent visit with Lavrov about [ EU agreed-desired upon armistice conditions frozen line in UKR ], snubbed-deferred them to his deputy guy ~only..
There are various sanitized versions in both western and RU media about it.. , but the context should be clear.
https://tass.com/politics/2145413
+cold shower pic afterwards..
(h)ttps://v.wpimg.pl/YzlmNTExdhsNDzhnagN7Dk5XbD0sWnVYGU90dmpBakIUWHxsah4wFgkfKyQqVj4IGR0vIzVWKRZDDD49ag5oVQgEPSQpGSBVCQAsMSFXaU4NXigyc0h0Qg1fe3lxHmgZQVUsMXFVYEoKWi1tI01oSw1ZbCk
Again..
https://shorturl.at/YlY6r
Moscow is of course an enclave. I would not be happy paying 11 bucks for an artisan croissant. But in the regions people are pretty satisfied too. The weather will never collaborate though.
Normally Russians are pretty happy by late August but this year they are already happy now. Season is early and we had 10 days of sun and 30+. Biting flies which should have been peaking in early August are out in force now. Not a problem in town, but out here laying in the sun is out of the question. or even stopping while pedaling to the farm. Juneberries, normally ripening July 5, will be ripening June 25.
North of Alps range, cold weather persistent this year-summer vs previous seasons.
Cherries+plum gone ( cold spell in the spring ), yet berries/fruiting bushes and nut trees brutal full over-crop so far ( potential – cross fingers )..
ai:
Training still exists — but only in the immigration system, not the domestic labor market.
Why?
Because:
Immigration programs must justify themselves politically.
Governments need to show immigrants are “job‑ready.”
Employers want workers but don’t want to train citizens.
Universities want full‑tuition international students.
Credentialing bodies want fee‑paying applicants.
So the system builds training pathways for newcomers while telling citizens:
“Go to school. Take on debt. Figure it out yourself.”
This is not about immigrants being “better” or “different.”
It’s about who the system chooses to invest in.
/ ai
A couple of years ago this would be labeled as a conspiracy theory. Authorities would downplay the political polarization as a fight over limited jobs and training and say it’s just about racial purity but now ai is openly admitting the system does not want legal citizens in the workforce.
This is a sad situation, to the extent that it is true.
Way back when, companies trained workers themselves. And immigrants worked hard at picking up English, so that they would fit in better.
From what I heard about then, many places that trained for decent paying jobs gave aptitude tests. Black people, as a group, performed poorly on these aptitude tests. Requiring college degrees was seen as less discriminatory..possAibly because there was affirmative action at many colleges. Thus, the college degree became an expensive, time-consuming but perceived as fairer replacement for an aptitude test.
Religious groups have been ones pushing DEI. I know the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America has been a strong supporter of DEI. Here again the view is that if proper education and a reasonable chance is given, nearly everyone can perform equally well.
Fads come and go like fads.
We all remember the war on drugs.
Now, municipalities are turning to marijuana sales to boost the local economy ( narrow the local government’s deficit).
Education was another fad. Education, a cornerstone of the service economy and a low interest borrowing environment, it looks its heydays are behind it.
ai :
The education system persists because it generates profit for institutions, lenders, landlords, and local economies — not because it trains people.
/ai
In response to the events of the last several years, the schools may focus on making more money off of fewer students. The days of it being recommended to every unemployed (poor) person or lowlife as a solution to their economic problems is behind it.
University administrators like to think that they can train anyone to do anything. So do college professors. They also like to think that there will be a huge increase in wages that will allow former students to pay back the debt with interest. This increase will be big enough to pay for a campus with many services never provided in the pasts (residence halls with one bathroom per student, fancy cafeterias with many choices, all kinds of new feel-good courses, many faculty spending half their time on research papers, Ph.D’s teaching every course, etc.)
The whole system isn’t working out. A person would think it would wither away quickly.
I’m surprised they think they’re in the business of training.
I’ve heard them also claim it’s not their job to train anybody.
I can only guess that these people are political creatures are heart and say whatever gets them a favorable reaction out of the group of people they’re around.
I really enjoyed this AI video about Schopenhauer’s brutal philosophy on how intelligent minds (like all of the cognoscenti here on OFW) can protect themselves from the psychologically draining effects of dealing with irrational, foolish, and willfully ignorant people. It also touches on the well-known Dunning-Kruger effect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TspV1odsXo
Snippet:
Imagine walking through an asylum. The patients point at you and call you crazy. Do you stop to debate them? Do you pull out a medical chart to prove your sanity? No.
You keep walking. You understand their reality is distorted.
The world is a much larger asylum. But the principle remains the exact same. When a fool insults you, it is not an insult. It is a misdiagnosis. When they reject your idea, it is not a failure. It is a confirmation that your idea is beyond their reach.
This level of detachment is not coldness. It is absolute clarity. It is the understanding that your energy is a finite resource. And every drop spent on
someone committed to their own ignorance is a drop stolen from your own potential.
When you spend that drop, it is only for people you care. But most of the time they do not understand the implications of spending that drop.
That’s why condensed (civ forcing) urban-ism always tends to amplify and cumulatively empower these very mal-adaptive effects among pop.
And therefore ( in reverse ) its absence makes for one of the key ” positive ” post apocalyptic / reset contributions: it’s not there ( in this form / concentration ) anymore, you don’t have to deal with it..
Usually, in hist. context people describe it a bit differently, apart from yearning about ” lost fine values ” but in essence meaning the same angle. Obviously, as the other side of systemic collapse in volatile after-phase is that each few (dozen) miles you will be asked for a thoroughfare fee/tax or ambushed by suddenly very [ rational – remaining people ], etc.
When it all gets too much, one should just watch a Japanese cat video animation, in which virtue is always rewarded and effort appreciated….
Just watching a few minutes of Koko-nyan should brighten up anyone’s day.
From cake-making to cleaning up rubbish on the beach, this cat really gets around.
Good point: “The world is a much larger asylum.”
The problem Schopenhauer did not expect is that the patients would eventually run the asylum.
OT but: now very time I get on youtube I am asked to sign in. Listening to a playlist while doing something else has become impossible, as you have to switch to that tab click once, wait a few secs, then click again. anyone else seeing this?
Works normally for me.
A local issue?
I’ve posted this before, but just a reminder:
50+% cheaper, durable, fast-charging, no temperature/geographic limitations, doesn’t catch on fire. Sodium batteries. These batteries plus nuclear will kick the Malthusian can down the road yet again. China is the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gBmoYYliWE&list=PLKYG8T3UytUl3M0mTdIj9BZX3c2NE2YHo
Excellent!
And it’s BAU again tonight, baby!
It’s BAU in the core all day every day, baby! I just might have AI make a rap track about it because modernity is absurd.
It (will) would take few yrs to slowly phase-in into all the ~competing brands etc.
But as looked/talked to ~neighbor recently, she is very satisfied with that plugin Jeep GCherokee, despite the smallish and lower quality batt. chem.
Yes, italo-french-US brand ahaha.
The bottom line is always about the proper marriage of the platform and the e-drive per given segment of product. So, it her case the car fits lot of people, towing, ground clearance if have to detour on lite offroad during local shock rain-flood event, no overhangs as often times the Koreans or Japs tend still to do for gaining mandatory silly hw mileage eff. score etc.
So, in essence it could be very fast adopted on reasonable budget in such envelope, big car which needs only few dozens mi range daily/weekly..
Nyet. No tractors, no trucks, no mining equipment. Thorim ships a possibility but they will be expensive. Copper still a bottleneck. But it will certainly help
Nyet to you lol. Look at graph E, trucking ton*miles / distance.
https://www.bts.gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/info-gallery/value-tonnage-and-ton-miles-distance-traveled
If this is only useful for sub-500 mile range, it will still take a lot of pressure off of trucking diesel. (~1/2 TAM, eyeballing). If consumption becomes more local, it addresses an even higher fraction.
And this is USA where things are spread out compared to, say, Europe or many Asian countries.
It is worth recalling that the fraction of middle distillates used for road transport is only 7%. There are savings in, say, giving batteries to the fishing fleet, although having a battery near saltwater during a storm is a recipe for disaster.
Tractors are out of the question as they will sink in mud. But I do expect that new light tractors will be powered by gasoline. Good for hay and potatoes but large area seeding will still be done with diesel. Mining equipment also. What can be electrified is being electrified, and that also is a significant saving in diesel, but has nothing to do with sodium (these giant rock grinding machines work with AC). Nuclear shipping might be also a significant saving, but again nothing to do with sodium and everything to do with thorium.
It’s a good thing that there are only 3 mines left in the world providing high grade iron ore, soon there will be plenty of coal available for electrification projects!
Maybe only 7%, but that’s some of the more difficult to substitute consumption. Heating can be electrified with nuclear or partially covered by these cheap batteries + solar. We don’t need so much air travel. All of a sudden we have a lot more of the critical resource left.
Perhaps.
We need to have the factories and supply lines to build these batteries, and citizens need to be able to afford to buy the cars with these batteries.
Previous EVs will likely drop in value, if these batteries are as good as claimed.
I have noted previously that we need big advances in uranium for it to scale up. We cannot efficiently reprocess spent fuel and current uranium production doesn’t even support today’s electricity uses.
Yes, to some limited extent these concerns are explored inside that and few other batt. “brake through” video channels as well.. Usually, it’s a bit confusing to laymen that several competing approaches/chemistries are in the research, development and pre-production stage and at different milepost achieved so far. It’s all over-lapping..
These batteries are being produced in various formats for different purposes, say from ebikes/drones to city econoboxes to lux/performance carz and in other setup envelope say from utility/delivery vans and up in heavier trucks etc.
So, there is a different desired application, size and performance, price niche for each. Also, usually, some(many) steps throughout the entire manuf. process are re-arrangable and re-deployable, meaning the applied utmost next-gen stuff is confined only within some limited steps of the entire manufacturing process. Simply said you don’t have to (always) need completely new A-Z factory (and supply chain) build-up for each inning of these upgraded chemistries.. But it’s a cost which must be eventually absorbed by the consumers, for sure.
Here’s an explanation of the challenges to develop them.
https://youtu.be/6MIBsuC9REo?si=YpDQpbRmBi3UAIEh
It’s clear that ice cars will be phased out. We thought that was impossible a short time ago. Why? We’re luddites?
This will conserve fossil fuels for quite a awhile . Scientists won’t be able to develop thorium molten salt reactors by 2150?
(YouTube doesnt let me copy the summary. My device?
This is the outline posted where the summary often is:
Chinese battery-making giant, CATL just signed a contract to supply 60GWh of Sodium batteries – the biggest in history. Are Lithium batteries about to become obsolete?
#battery #tech #CATL #China #breakthrough
Chapters
0.00 – The Record-Breaking Battery Contract
0:48 – The Problem with Lithium
5:13 – Ad Read
6:59 – Lithium Vs. Sodium: Battle of the Batteries
9:59 – Why Sodium? Why Now?
13:58 – The Problem with Sodium
15:34 – Conclusion: The Future of Batteries
Looking at the section called “The Problem with Sodium” at 13:58:
While sodium might look like it’s winning on cost, life cycle, cold weather, and supply chain stability, it isn’t a universal replacement. There are applications where sodium will likely never be able to compete with lithium because of its energy density.
Electric aviation is the clearest example. Where every gram of battery weight directly costs range, sodium’s lower energy density is a fundamental handicap.
Also, in things like consumer electronics where the battery has to fit inside a device that already has no spare space. This will almost certainly remain lithium territory for the foreseeable future.
He goes on to talk about the fact that the company making these batteries understands this limitation.
According to Col. Macgregor, the Israeli Defense Force is collapsing. So the problem is not just that the US is short of ammunition, but Israel’s ground forces have major problems as well.
THE IDF IS COLLAPSING — AND TRUMP KNOWS IT | COL. Douglas Macgregor
The IDF have not been able to defeat the Houthis or Hezbollah. They are fighting wars on so many fronts they are spread way too thin. It’s so bad that some in Israel have decided to leave the country. On top of all that, they picked a fight with a very strong enemy in Iran.
Macgregor starts by saying that the US was losing badly in Korea, but Eisenhower arranged an armistice. Most people are not aware of this loss. There have been many other losses over the years.
Macgregor may be right on this, but his record of being right in his predictions over the last three years has not been good.
MacGregor does not seem to have studied Korea too much.
If USA sincerely wanted to crush China, which lacked modern weapons and USSR being a bit reluctant to sell weapons to there, it could.
However, there was a consensus between Truman and the US army high brass to limit US involvement to some degree so a kind of stalemate , similar to what is seen in Ukraine now, continued for 2 years until everyone was tired.
South Korea did NOT agree with the armistice and it has not signed it so technically it is still in war with NK.
in short, the American top brass did not consider Korea worth sacrificing ‘American lives’ and let it stand. A stupid decision, although for those who value half-educated redneck lives more than Chinese domination of the world, ‘hindsight is 20-20’
On one hand I say “oh please oh please”. On the other where are they all going if not here? Ukraine is not ready and won’t be for at least two years. I am sure the USA can pay for some optical fibers to Patagonia, but they already saw what happened when the net migration into then Palestine became negative around 1930. Patagonia’s cold.
Yes, that’s fascinating angle, their proposed or actually on the ground prepared escape resettlement zones. And as you pointed out with elevated %prob these are/were clearly: UKR (now looking as only W-enclaves at best), some carved out SAmerican domains, perhaps something up in the -stans around Caspian too, ..
Yootoob short on Trump’s latest truth that threatens Iran with a nuke. Every comment under the video calls for his removal from office.
https://youtube.com/shorts/OEfpGBF_Qnw?is=givLYlb1srFv6Onw
Sorry x- I forgot to massage the link
https://youtube.com/shorts/OEfpGBF_Qnw
x- is being censored heavily by, well…
I’m still lurking, but not saying much, because my comments are getting deleted.
UseNet is undergoing some kind of a renaissance recently, there are some other, decentralized message board services introduced as we speak. I’m sure, I’ll recognize your writing style another day at one of those DarkNets…
It pains me to hear that brother. I wondered maybe if you just didn’t take kindly to Gail’s dragnet the other week that we got caught up in.
Nuclear weapons are close to all we have left. In fact, we likely don’t have many of them left either, because they have mostly been down-blended for use in nuclear power plants.
Trump makes lots of threats. We can hope he doesn’t carry them out.
There is a concern that aging may have cracked the plutonium core and cause the bomb to be less powerful. They got big piles of money so they can run simulations on their super computers to judge the impact, no AI, no quantum.
And or cracked the explosive charges that compress the plutonium.
Can a simulation tell you that the electronics in your nuclear warhead are no good? Maybe they have been keeping these things in pristine condition for all these years. Who knows. We can only speculate.
Another milestone (or marker) on the road to collapse .
” Mobile phone sales plunged 30-35% by volume in May as prices kept rising
This comes as companies continue to hike prices every month since November 2025 in order to recoup the increasing cost of memory chips ”
https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/mobile-phone-sales-by-volume-plunge-30-35-in-may-as-prices-keep-rising-126061201152_1.html
Everyone who needs or wants one has one. Only way for companies to make money is to raise prices, gross revenue is quantityxprice. Land lines probably are going, but they are less dependent on exotic infrastructure.
Dennis L.
In the absence of growth, only rising prices for products and services can fool investors into thinking these companies are growing. The chip shortage is only doing them favors from my vantage point. No chip shortage, no “supply chain” issues and they’d be shrinking.
I haven’t bought a new smartphone in years. The current form-factor and software have reached an S-phase plateau.
There were times you could jump to the next [ s-phase plateau ] envelope, i.e. skipping whole set of generations of products, e.g. updating PC/phone once in ~two decades. That won’t be ( it’s not ) allowed into the mandatory biometric/wearable ID-peon chip/.. present-future anymore..
People’s incomes haven’t gone up enough to buy new fancier cell phones. Refurbished ones will be in greater demand, I expect.
Academics said these projects were not possible. Well, aluminum was used not copper for uhv.
***
China is aggressively expanding its Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) grid, planning to commission 15 new transmission lines between 2026 and 2030. This expansion aims to boost cross-provincial transmission capacity by 35% and integrate approximately 200 GWh/year of renewable energy, supporting the goal of having wind and solar account for over 30% of State Grid’s power mix by 2030.
Current Status and Investment
As of late 2025, China had 42 UHV projects in operation, with cross-regional transmission capacity reaching 370 million kilowatts.
State Grid Corporation invested US$70 billion in 2024 for grid construction and is building lines such as the 800 kV, 8 GW Yan’an-Hefei UHVDC project and the Gansu-Zhejiang ±800 kV flexible DC line.
The grid features record-breaking infrastructure, including the ±1,100 kV Zhundong-Anhui DC line, the world’s highest voltage, largest capacity (12 GW), and longest distance (3,304 km).
Knew about the phenomena not the scale and pace, very interesting thanks.
While EURos instead of similarly fast paced UHV build-up ( to make preexisting deployed RE less obstructive traffic on the grid ) tend to rather prioritize flooding of coal mines, cutting natgas continental links or obfuscate NPPs etc.
Someone will loose very badly through such practiced “competition” in the very end, ..decades freewheeling ” hence me no worry ” inept bureaucratic ( or worse ) placeholder attitude.
I add that China has built several DC lines of 2000 + km. Mostly carrying solar panel energy in Xin-jang (north west) to the south East (Shenzhen, shanghai). As there is no way to build DC transformers they need to put a bunch of loads in series to absorb that UHV DC power (the panels in Xinjiang are also in long series). Doable in a well organized society, not at all in the West.
Coal has indirectly made this type of construction possible. The US could not reproduce this if it wanted to. Our costs would be hugely higher, without coal and low-wage workers.
February 28th will be remembered for ending the BAU Party for some, like these over here
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/89b8z41vlyn7/
Please come back, we want you back…yeah , 🙏 sure thing
Europe does not seem to be very interested in sending visitors to see all of the fighting in the Middle East.
These ME oil nations sit in the top ten of per capita energy use. Hand needs to cut them down to size. End of story.
The Silent Pandemic: Mental illness is on the rise worldwide. Experts warn that this will become a serious problem
Mental illness is on the rise worldwide. Experts warn that this will become a serious problem
Mental illness is currently the most common cause of health problems, surpassing cardiovascular disease, cancer, and musculoskeletal disorders.
https://www.postoj.sk/195740/dusevne-choroby-su-celosvetovo-na-vzostupe-bude-to-vazny-problem-varuju-odbornici
When I look at mental health statistics, it is the marginalized members of society who are doing especially poorly.
https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/mental-illness
Data in the above link indicates that it is young people, aged 18-25 who are doing especially badly. They cannot find jobs with adequate pay. They tend to despair. Women seem to be affected more than men. For some reason (perhaps because they are disproportionately young), multiracial people seem to be disproportionately affected. Perhaps they have no group to “fit in with.”
We know that as resources per capita has become constrained, it is the young people who are disproportionately affected. Despair and mental illness are closely related. Drug addition and homelessness fit in with the same pattern.
Silent pandemic of heart attacks, strokes, seizures, car accidents, cancers, etc.
The final nail in the coffin was the elimination of low-energy jobs by AI. Now we’re seeing invoices with 90-day payment terms.
Listen to this about the so called “Agreement of Ubderstanding”…imo no final will ever occur
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwkyemv_nwk
Deep Dive Intel Briefing 6/13 /2026 Lt Col Daniel Davis
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
Daniel Davis does a great job of breaking down where things are at. Summary = most likely not going to happen
Daniel Davis thinks the two sides are still too far apart.
But the fact that the US has little ammunition leads to a situation where it really must somehow step back, under the pretext of negotiating a deal in which the US is somehow, not losing.
Trump’s role, as the Mad Emperor, is to cover this up with endless extravagant threats and senseless bluster., to maintain the illusion of an all-powerful Great Military the Best Ever in History, etc.
Anyone who thinks his tweets are spontaneous and authentic has a screw lose themselves: how can one not be aware of the theatrical nature of it all?
Bill Gates and Elon Musk are also, in some respects, similar distraction actors.
The blurb says,
Iran has issued a dramatic new statement amid growing speculation over the future of U.S.-Iran relations. Major General Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, says the world will soon witness what Tehran calls a major victory for Iran and the wider “resistance” movement.
Speaking in a message delivered at a memorial ceremony in Dezful, Abdollahi honored the late Major General Gholamali Rashid while asserting that Iran’s military strength remains intact despite the loss of senior commanders. He claimed Israel’s attempts to weaken Iran’s military leadership had failed and that Tehran’s current commanders are continuing Rashid’s strategic vision.
The comments come as Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi reveals that Tehran and Washington may be only days away from signing a memorandum of understanding aimed at formally ending the recent conflict between the two countries.
I was surprised that Iran indicates that a memorandum of understanding may be only days away. It will not completely end the war. It will start a 60 day period of negotiations, which may be followed by more such periods.
Free read from Javier Bias .
” Ten Reasons Oil Is Still Below $100 a Barrel ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-11/oil-prices-10-reasons-why-oil-is-still-below-100-a-barrel?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4MTMzNTAwOSwiZXhwIjoxNzgxOTM5ODA5LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUR0c4R1dOM04wOTcwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0NEMyQzc4RTVBMjQ0NjdDOTU5MDI0NjRBQjUwQ0U2MSJ9.JaJM_nptmNzL_IC52VhosJXGGhMQzw-ffcJjEv7_rwY&leadSource=uverify%20wall
Sal, I want to believe this, but there is little evidence of these transits happening. We have had fairly consistent Synthetic Aperture Radar coverage of the Strait. Usually at least one partial pass per day. I haven’t seen a VLCC using the inshore traffic scheme in weeks.
It possible the timing of the passes just isn’t matching up, of course, but this was a full coverage pass two days ago and there isn’t even a single ship in or near the inshore lane. On a 4-6 hour transit you’d think we’d be seeing something, even just a glimpse entering or exiting.
There is no doubt STS transfers are happening, on both sides of the Strait, but I find it almost impossible to believe many laden VLCCs are sneaking out, transferring to empty vessels, then going back in to repeat the process and none of them ever show up on SAR imagery.
Again, it could be a timing thing, but we’ve got imagery going back fairly consistently for a month and there just isn’t VLCC sized traffic to be found within the inshore route.
I also have major questions about the $40B reinsurance backstop. DFC lacks the lending power to fully insure these vessels and federal law caps the amount any single party can receive to 5% of DFC’s Maximum Contingent Liability, which is far less than the cost of even one single insured event if a laden VLCC is struck and sunk when you include pollution and salvage.
Lastly, there is no indication any “secret” oil is reaching markets anywhere in the world. If these vessels are getting out with millions of barrels of oil, where is it?
Copy/paste .
Trump saying that bullshit was the narrative fed to him in order to undermine his standing with the military. It makes the military look pathetic when the Commander in Chief treats the military as if the military is a part of his own narcissistic gaslighting psychology. I find it hilarious watching squares like Blas bend over backwards to assess the non-existent merits of the gaslighting as if Trump had said, ” hey Javier, taste my delicious morning diaper you’ll really love it.” That’s what Javier gets for selling his soul. He gets to be functionally autistic.
What If Oil Prices Never Hit $150?
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/what-if-oil-prices-never-hit-150
I think demand has peaked or soon. Due to so many EV’s and renewables. (wink wink)
And I think maybe the US is trying to secure oil production worldwide so they can control the price like the old Texas Railroad Commission. But in reverse this time. Cutting production to make sure prices don’t go too low.
since ivan is just a mindless follower of trends he would do well to read the first few comments under that article which are written by smarter people than the Sorcerer is, and note the number of thumbs up under those comments. Ivan might find some sanctuary in those numbers and start sending his way over to the deflationary camp based in reason.
Poland announced its plans to lift retail restrictions for gas stations this summer (aka in weeks horizon). This is likely connected to some ongoing back channels w. US, which obviously could be anything..
But as things are in recent decades, even intermarried US-PL gov/elites sort of guaranteed some synchronicity.. in their policies. So, I’d evaluate it for now as mildly pro successful deal sign with Iran soonish..
Now THAT’S a instant classic Polish joke.
Here’s an old one.
A man walks into a bar and says to the bartender, “Do you want to hear a Polak joke?”
“Sure”, says the bartender. “But first, you should know that I’m Polish, the cop drinking in the corner over there is Polish, the bouncer is Polish, and so are those two wrestlers across the room. So are you sure you still want to tell the joke?”
“Nevermind,” says the man, “I don’t want to have to explain it 5 times”
Yes, and various sub-variants incl. ” .. Winston Churchill never called Poland a “greedy hyena of Europe,” but he did condemn their “hyena appetite” after they joined Adolf H. in the 1938 .. ”
That being said, there is also the variant / possibility of ever lowering trend of quality amongst US elites per time, hence if they now tend to rhyme w. PL – the above Iran claim is still possible-realistic option..
There are no US elites. There are only global elites because this civilization is global. You have zero circumstantial evidence to the contrary. P2+2=4. If you can’t do that math then you don’t count. First fundamentals.
LOL.
There is evidently a pecking order.
A 3-4th separation degree bureaucrat-politician carrying water for globalists could be in general nomenclature book easily called US elite/govs specimen.
Yes, demonstrating atrocious lack of proper doomeristic terminology on mine part. You won (again)!
My point Jr is that you were characterizing those mere water carriers as the fountainhead from which civilizational decision making takes place.
When I use the word Elites I’m always talking about the managerial elites and not bureaucratic water carriers because why, when talking about geopolitical management, would I speak in terms of elite water carriers when water carrying doesn’t involve critical thinking and/or exceptional talent? I wouldn’t. Why do you?
Let’s recap. You are attributing Iran deal decision making to bureaucrats and hypothesizing that allied Polish bureaucrats have picked up on bureaucratic intel (which in reality would be based on nothing but Hand-guided Trump gaslighting a non-existent peace agreement) and are relaxing their fuel rationing plan. LOL.
Bargaining bigly, Jr. That’s why I called your hypothesis an instant classic of a Polish joke. You wrote a great Polish joke, thank you.
That’s clearly some kind of cheapo sophistry running around empty debate..
I’m not [ bargaining ] in any real sense.
As I’m on this planet on prolonged bonus-time anywayz, i.e. NOT over-invested in any outcome be it fast/slow .. pop/econ crash, or anything; freelance observer essentially.
Don’t envy or ridicule other peoplez who are or have to “genuinely” engage in bargaining mode chiefly from the title of their internalized vantage point, having families to care after or being emotionally over-invested in other humanoid relationships.. or even vices.
Not because it’s wrong or karma spoiling but because it’s pointless.
Oh poor widdle Jr. Doesn’t want to be ridiculed for falling for the 37th peace agreement gaslighting for the 37th straight time because he doesn’t want to face the social consequences of Collapse. Widdle Jr wants his human frailties nurtured while as far as he’s concerned Renee Good’s frailties got her what she deserved.
I’m a janitor. I don’t like a foolish consistencies strewn all over the joint. Trash everywhere discourages high functioning people from entering the community, and it encourages more trash.
So don’t tell me that it’s pointless for me to pick up your trash. I’m not picking up your trash for your sake Jr. This isn’t about us vehicles; that’s unhealthy ego identification. I’m picking up your trash because somebody has to. A tidy house is a tidy mind.
And don’t pretend that you’re attachments to the people in your life justifies the trash. The trash is everywhere and always a product of a low-functioning state. If you want to justify your trash by arguing why the 37th ceasefire is the real one then do so otherwise don’t be a crybaby about it.
I can believe that most of the things Javier Blas says contributes to the low price of oil.
Another issue is that the buying power of citizens is falling relatively lower. They cannot afford to pay as much for end products made with oil (such as food). Their low wages indirectly lead to less demand for oil, and thus lower prices.
Also governments implement approaches that will cut back the use of oil, such as more work from home. These policies act like rationing. They tend to hold down demand, completely apart from the price.