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Recent Posts
- 2026: Expect a very uneven world economic downturn
- Too many promises; too few future physical goods
- A lack of very cheap oil is leading to debt problems
- What has gone wrong with the economy? Can it be fixed?
- Sierra Club talk that may be of interest
- Why oil prices don’t rise to consistently high levels
- Worrying indications in recently updated world energy data
- What should individuals do in a world filled with conflict?
- Economic contraction, coming right up
- Brace for rapid changes in the economy; the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth
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Category Archives: Introductory Post
A lack of very cheap oil is leading to debt problems
The economy needs a strong middle class to maintain the buying power needed to purchase goods such as vehicles, motorcycles, and new homes, to keep the price of oil up. Prices must be both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers. Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post, PDFs Available
Tagged EROEI, EROI, limits to growth, low oil prices, wage disparity
1,521 Comments
Economic contraction, coming right up
In this post, I will try to describe the physics-based limits that the economy is facing, related to diminishing returns of many kinds. The problem we are facing has sometimes been called “limits to growth,” or “overshoot and collapse.” Such changes tend to lead to a loss of “complexity.” Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post
Tagged diminishing returns, DOGE, limits to growth, oil prices
1,496 Comments
How Does the Economy Really Work?
The world economy is an amazingly complex, physics-based, self-organizing system. The three major elements are extracted resources including energy resources, human population, and demand coming through the financial system. All three of these elements tend to increase over time, but both population and extracted resources tend to hit limits because the world is finite. Continue reading
Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits
Historical data show that a reduction in energy availability has mostly affected the US, European countries, Japan, and other advanced economies. I expect this situation to continue as energy limits (oil and coal, especially) become more of a problem. Advanced economies will start looking and acting more like today’s less-advanced economies. Continue reading
2024: Too Many Things Going Wrong
In 2024, the world economy is acting more and more like an 80-year-old man than like a young vigorous economy. Perhaps the economy can continue for quite a few more years, but it increasingly looks like it is in danger of falling apart, or of succumbing as a result of what might be regarded as minor problems. Continue reading
