In order to understand what solutions to our energy predicament will or won’t work, it is necessary to understand the true nature of our energy predicament. Most solutions fail because analysts assume that the nature of our energy problem is quite different from what it really is. Analysts assume that our problem is a slowly developing long-term problem, when in fact, it is a problem that is at our door step right now.
The point that most analysts miss is that our energy problem behaves very much like a near-term financial problem. We will discuss why this happens. This near-term financial problem is bound to work itself out in a way that leads to huge job losses and governmental changes in the near term. Our mitigation strategies need to be considered in this context. Strategies aimed simply at relieving energy shortages with high priced fuels and high-tech equipment are bound to be short lived solutions, if they are solutions at all.
OUR ENERGY PREDICAMENT
1. Our number one energy problem is a rapidly rising need for investment capital, just to maintain a fixed level of resource extraction. This investment capital is physical “stuff” like oil, coal, and metals.
We pulled out the “easy to extract” oil, gas, and coal first. As we move on to the difficult to extract resources, we find that the need for investment capital escalates rapidly. According to Mark Lewis writing in the Financial Times, “upstream capital expenditures” for oil and gas amounted to nearly $700 billion in 2012, compared to $350 billion in 2005, both in 2012 dollars. This corresponds to an inflation-adjusted annual increase of 10% per year for the seven year period. (If you have problems viewing the images, attached is a PDF of the article, including images: A Forecast of Our Energy Future; Why Common Solutions Don’t Work | Our Finite World)
In theory, we would expect extraction costs to rise as we approach limits of the amount to be extracted. In fact, the steep rise in oil prices in recent years is of the type we would expect, if this is happening. We were able to get around the problem in the 1970s, by adding more oil extraction, substituting other energy products for oil, and increasing efficiency. This time, our options for fixing the situation are much fewer, since the low hanging fruit have already been picked, and we are reaching financial limits now.
To make matters worse, the rapidly rising need for investment capital arises is other industries as well as fossil fuels. Metals extraction follows somewhat the same pattern. We extracted the highest grade ores, in the most accessible locations first. We can still extract more metals, but we need to move to lower grade ores. This means we need to remove more of the unwanted waste products, using more resources, including energy resources.
There is a huge increase in the amount of waste products that must be extracted and disposed of, as we move to lower grade ores (Figure 3). The increase in waste products is only 3% when we move from ore with a concentration of .200, to ore with a concentration .195. When we move from a concentration of .010 to a concentration of .005, the amount of waste product more than doubles.
When we look at the inflation adjusted cost of base metals (Figure 4 below), we see that the index was generally falling for a long period between the 1960s and the 1990s, as productivity improvements were greater than falling ore quality.
Since 2002, the index is higher, as we might expect if we are starting to reach limits with respect to some of the metals in the index.
There are many other situations where we are fighting a losing battle with nature, and as a result need to make larger resource investments. We have badly over-fished the ocean, so fishermen now need to use more resources too catch the remaining much smaller fish. Pollution (including CO2 pollution) is becoming more of a problem, so we invest resources in devices to capture mercury emissions and in wind turbines in the hope they will help our pollution problems. We also need to invest increasing amounts in roads, bridges, electricity transmission lines, and pipelines, to compensate for deferred maintenance and aging infrastructure.
Some people say that the issue is one of falling Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI), and indeed, falling EROI is part of the problem. The steepness of the curve comes from the rapid increase in energy products used for extraction and many other purposes, as we approach limits. The investment capital limit was discovered by the original modelers of Limits to Growth in 1972. I discuss this in my post Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong.
2. When the amount of oil extracted each year flattens out (as it has since 2004), a conflict arises: How can there be enough oil both (a) for the growing investment needed to maintain the status quo, plus (b) for new investment to promote growth?
In the previous section, we talked about the rising need for investment capital, just to maintain the status quo. At least some of this investment capital needs to be in the form of oil. Another use for oil would be to grow the economy–adding new factories, or planting more crops, or transporting more goods. While in theory there is a possibility of substituting away from oil, at any given point in time, the ability to substitute away is quite limited. Most transport options require oil, and most farming requires oil. Construction and road equipment require oil, as do diesel powered irrigation pumps.
Because of the lack of short term substitutability, the need for oil for reinvestment tends to crowd out the possibility of growth. This is at least part of the reason for slower world-wide economic growth in recent years.
3. In the crowding out of growth, the countries that are most handicapped are the ones with the highest average cost of their energy supplies.
For oil importers, oil is a very high cost product, raising the average cost of energy products. This average cost of energy is highest in countries that use the highest percentage of oil in their energy mix.
If we look at a number of oil importing countries, we see that economic growth tends to be much slower in countries that use very much oil in their energy mix. This tends to happen because high energy costs make products less affordable. For example, high oil costs make vacations to Greece unaffordable, and thus lead to cut backs in their tourist industry.
It is striking when looking at countries arrayed by the proportion of oil in their energy mix, the extent to which high oil use, and thus high cost energy use, is associated with slow economic growth (Figure 5, 6, and 7). There seems to almost be a dose response–the more oil use, the lower the economic growth. While the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) are shown as a group, each of the countries in the group shows the same pattern on high oil consumption as a percentage of its total energy production in 2004.
Globalization no doubt acted to accelerate this shift toward countries that used little oil. These countries tended to use much more coal in their energy mix–a much cheaper fuel.
4. The financial systems of countries with slowing growth are especially affected, as are the governments. Debt becomes harder to repay with interest, as economic growth slows.
With slow growth, debt becomes harder to repay with interest. Governments are tempted to add programs to aid their citizens, because employment tends to be low. Governments find that tax revenue lags because of the lagging wages of most citizens, leading to government deficits. (This is precisely the problem that Turchin and Nefedov noted, prior to collapse, when they analyzed eight historical collapses in their book Secular Cycles.)
Governments have recently attempt to fix both their own financial problems and the problems of their citizens by lowering interest rates to very low levels and by using Quantitative Easing. The latter allows governments to keep even long term interest rates low. With Quantitative Easing, governments are able to keep borrowing without having a market of ready buyers. Use of Quantitative Easing also tends to blow bubbles in prices of stocks and real estate, helping citizens to feel richer.
5. Wages of citizens of countries oil importing countries tend to remain flat, as oil prices remain high.
At least part of the wage problem relates to the slow economic growth noted above. Furthermore, citizens of the country will cut back on discretionary goods, as the price of oil rises, because their cost of commuting and of food rises (because oil is used in growing food). The cutback in discretionary spending leads to layoffs in discretionary sectors. If exported goods are high priced as well, buyers from other countries will tend to cut back as well, further leading to layoffs and low wage growth.
6. Oil producers find that oil prices don’t rise high enough, cutting back on their funds for reinvestment.
As oil extraction costs increase, it becomes difficult for the demand for oil to remain high, because wages are not increasing. This is the issue I describe in my post What’s Ahead? Lower Oil Prices, Despite Higher Extraction Costs.
We are seeing this issue today. Bloomberg reports, Oil Profits Slump as Higher Spending Fails to Raise Output. Business Week reports Shell Surprise Shows Profit Squeeze Even at $100 Oil. Statoil, the Norwegian company, is considering walking away from Greenland, to try to keep a lid on production costs.
7. We find ourselves with a long-term growth imperative relating to fossil fuel use, arising from the effects of globalization and from growing world population.
Globalization added approximately 4 billion consumers to the world market place in the 1997 to 2001 time period. These people previously had lived traditional life styles. Once they became aware of all of the goods that people in the rich countries have, they wanted to join in, buying motor bikes, cars, televisions, phones, and other goods. They would also like to eat meat more often. Population in these countries continues to grow adding to demand for goods of all kinds. These goods can only be made using fossil fuels, or by technologies that are enabled by fossil fuels (such as today’s hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar PV).
8. The combination of these forces leads to a situation in which economies, one by one, will turn downward in the very near future–in a few months to a year or two. Some are already on this path (Egypt, Syria, Greece, etc.)
We have two problems that tend to converge: financial problems that countries are now hiding, and ever rising need for resources in a wide range of areas that are reaching limits (oil, metals, over-fishing, deferred maintenance on pipelines).
On the financial side, we have countries trying to hang together despite a serious mismatch between revenue and expenses, using Quantitative Easing and ultra-low interest rates. If countries unwind the Quantitative Easing, interest rates are likely to rise. Because debt is widely used, the cost of everything from oil extraction to buying a new home to buying a new car is likely to rise. The cost of repaying the government’s own debt will rise as well, putting governments in worse financial condition than they are today.
A big concern is that these problems will carry over into debt markets. Rising interest rates will lead to widespread defaults. The availability of debt, including for oil drilling, will dry up.
Even if debt does not dry up, oil companies are already being squeezed for investment funds, and are considering cutting back on drilling. A freeze on credit would make certain this happens.
Meanwhile, we know that investment costs keep rising, in many different industries simultaneously, because we are reaching the limits of a finite world. There are more resources available; they are just more expensive. A mismatch occurs, because our wages aren’t going up.
The physical amount of oil needed for all of this investment keeps rising, but oil production continues on its relatively flat plateau, or may even begins to drop. This leads to less oil available to invest in the rest of the economy. Given the squeeze, even more countries are likely to encounter slowing growth or contraction.
9. My expectation is that the situation will end with a fairly rapid drop in the production of all kinds of energy products and the governments of quite a few countries failing. The governments that remain will dramatically cut services.
With falling oil production, promised government programs will be far in excess of what governments can afford, because governments are basically funded out of the surpluses of a fossil fuel economy–the difference between the cost of extraction and the value of these fossil fuels to society. As the cost of extraction rises, the surpluses tend to dry up.
As these surpluses shrink, governments will need to shrink back dramatically. Government failure will be easier than contracting back to a much smaller size.
International finance and trade will be particularly challenging in this context. Trying to start over will be difficult, because many of the new countries will be much smaller than their predecessors, and will have no “track record.” Those that do have track records will have track records of debt defaults and failed promises, things that will not give lenders confidence in their ability to repay new loans.
While it is clear that oil production will drop, with all of the disruption and a lack of operating financial markets, I expect natural gas and coal production will drop as well. Spare parts for almost anything will be difficult to get, because of the need for the system of international trade to support making these parts. High tech goods such as computers and phones will be especially difficult to purchase. All of these changes will result in a loss of most of the fossil fuel economy and the high tech renewables that these fossil fuels support.
A Forecast of Future Energy Supplies and their Impact
A rough estimate of the amounts by which energy supply will drop is given in Figure 9, below.
The issue we will be encountering could be much better described as “Limits to Growth” than “Peak Oil.” Massive job layoffs will occur, as fuel use declines. Governments will find that their finances are even more pressured than today, with calls for new programs at the time revenue is dropping dramatically. Debt defaults will be a huge problem. International trade will drop, especially to countries with the worst financial problems.
One big issue will be the need to reorganize governments in a new, much less expensive way. In some cases, countries will break up into smaller units, as the Former Soviet Union did in 1991. In some cases, the situation will go back to local tribes with tribal leaders. The next challenge will be to try to get the governments to act in a somewhat co-ordinated way. There may need to be more than one set of governmental changes, as the global energy supplies decline.
We will also need to begin manufacturing goods locally, at a time when debt financing no longer works very well, and governments are no longer maintaining roads. We will have to figure out new approaches, without the benefit of high tech goods like computers. With all of the disruption, the electric grid will not last very long either. The question will become: what can we do with local materials, to get some sort of economy going again?
NON-SOLUTIONS and PARTIAL SOLUTIONS TO OUR PROBLEM
There are a lot of proposed solutions to our problem. Most will not work well because the nature of the problem is different from what most people have expected.
1. Substitution. We don’t have time. Furthermore, whatever substitutions we make need to be with cheap local materials, if we expect them to be long-lasting. They also must not over-use resources such as wood, which is in limited supply.
Electricity is likely to decline in availability almost as quickly as oil because of inability to keep up the electrical grid and other disruptions (such as failing governments, lack of oil to lubricate machinery, lack of replacement parts, bankruptcy of companies involved with the production of electricity) so is not really a long-term solution to oil limits.
2. Efficiency. Again, we don’t have time to do much. Higher mileage cars tend to be more expensive, replacing one problem with another. A big problem in the future will be lack of road maintenance. Theoretical gains in efficiency may not hold in the real world. Also, as governments reduce services and often fail, lenders will be unwilling to lend funds for new projects which would in theory improve efficiency.
In some cases, simple devices may provide efficiency. For example, solar thermal can often be a good choice for heating hot water. These devices should be long-lasting.
3. Wind turbines. Current industrial type wind turbines will be hard to maintain, so are unlikely to be long-lasting. The need for investment capital for wind turbines will compete with other needs for investment capital. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will drop dramatically, with or without wind turbines.
On the other hand, simple wind mills made with local materials may work for the long term. They are likely to be most useful for mechanical energy, such as pumping water or powering looms for cloth.
4. Solar Panels. Promised incentive plans to help homeowners pay for solar panels can be expected to mostly fall through. Inverters and batteries will need replacement, but probably will not be available. Handy homeowners who can rewire the solar panels for use apart from the grid may find them useful for devices that can run on direct current. As part of the electric grid, solar panels will not add to its lifetime. It probably will not be possible to make solar panels for very many years, as the fossil fuel economy reaches limits.
5. Shale Oil. Shale oil is an example of a product with very high investment costs, and returns which are doubtful at best. Big companies who have tried to extract shale oil have decided the rewards really aren’t there. Smaller companies have somehow been able to put together financial statements claiming profits, based on hoped for future production and very low interest rates.
Costs for extracting shale oil outside the US for shale oil are likely to be even higher than in the US. This happens because the US has laws that enable production (landowner gets a share of profits) and other beneficial situations such as pipelines in place, plentiful water supplies, and low population in areas where fracking is done. If countries decide to ramp up shale oil production, they are likely to run into similarly hugely negative cash flow situations. It is hard to see that these operations will save the world from its financial (and energy) problems.
6. Taxes. Taxes need to be very carefully structured, to have any carbon deterrent benefit. If part of taxes consumers would normally pay to the government are levied on fuel for vehicles, the practice can encourage more the use of more efficient vehicles.
On the other hand, if carbon taxes are levied on businesses, the taxes tend to encourage businesses to move their production to other, lower-cost countries. The shift in production leads to the use of more coal for electricity, rather than less. In theory, carbon taxes could be paired with a very high tax on imported goods made with coal, but this has not been done. Without such a pairing, carbon taxes seem likely to raise world CO2 emissions.
7. Steady State Economy. Herman Daly was the editor of a book in 1973 called Toward a Steady State Economy, proposing that the world work toward a Steady State economy, instead of growth. Back in 1973, when resources were still fairly plentiful, such an approach would have acted to hold off Limits to Growth for quite a few years, especially if zero population growth were included in the approach.
Today, it is far too late for such an approach to work. We are already in a situation with very depleted resources. We can’t keep up current production levels if we want to–to do so would require greatly ramping up energy production because of the rising need for energy investment to maintain current production, discussed in Item (1) of Our Energy Predicament. Collapse will probably be impossible to avoid. We can’t even hope for an outcome as good as a Steady State Economy.
7. Basing Choice of Additional Energy Generation on EROI Calculations. In my view, basing new energy investment on EROI calculations is an iffy prospect at best. EROI calculations measure a theoretical piece of the whole system–“energy at the well-head.” Thus, they miss important parts of the system, which affect both EROI and cost. They also overlook timing, so can indicate that an investment is good, even if it digs a huge financial hole for organizations making the investment. EROI calculations also don’t consider repairability issues which may shorten real-world lifetimes.
Regardless of EROI indications, it is important to consider the likely financial outcome as well. If products are to be competitive in the world marketplace, electricity needs to be inexpensive, regardless of what the EROI calculations seem to say. Our real problem is lack of investment capital–something that is gobbled up at prodigious rates by energy generation devices whose costs occur primarily at the beginning of their lives. We need to be careful to use our investment capital wisely, not for fads that are expensive and won’t hold up for the long run.
8. Demand Reduction. This really needs to be the major way we move away from fossil fuels. Even if we don’t have other options, fossil fuels will move away from us. Encouraging couples to have smaller families would seem to be a good choice.
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Hello once again Gail,
You will be astonished to know that in the case of Australia your energy fears are groundless! Apparently we have ‘the power’ with more energy resources than we know what to do with. There is to be another energy review according to the ABC http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-06/abbott-affordable-energy/5243134 Isn’t it comforting to know that while the lights have gone out everywhere else, they will still be shining brightly in Australia. How long do you think it will take before in the words of our prime minister Mr Abbott ” we can be the affordable energy capital of the world.” ?
Kind regards H.
Yes, I suppose that might be the way Abbott spins the story.
Gail, when I read MSM news I find myself using your ideas again and again. MSM articles tell me it is just a question of how to correctly structure money and debt and all will be well. I just think, no, it is a lack of energy inputs at affordable prices.
An interesting exchange between Orlov and Ugo Bardi right now on Orlov’s site, comparing the situation of the Soviet Union – which Gail has discussed many times – and the sufferings of contemporary Italy.
Orlov is now a clear apologist for Putin’s Russia, but we all have to survive in this world and he has a family to consider, and he still writes a good deal of sense. As does Ugo Bardi, always.
Have I been banned from posing reggae videos or has the system gone crazy?
(The British establishment actually made reggae illegal on Camden high st LOL
r Interesting as always Gail.
the interesting sub story at the moment that you touched on is oil companies either hitting financial problems or suffering profits: BP is still dealing with Deepwater Horizon hiding it true profit downturn, Shell you mentioned, the German energy giant EDF is selling off profitable offshore wind and north sea gas because it is ‘restructuring’, UK energy suppliers have increased prices 9% this year. The sub-story is a crisis in the energy industry despite record prices and a few points of growth and recovery in the wider economy.
Added to this is oil companies in Brazil despite being the ‘big’ new fields going bankrupt or seriously suffering a cash crisis.
Oil [and other fossil fuel] companies are putting on a brave face- and are linked to ‘thinktank’ lobby groups who downplay AGW and renewables- The impression given is one’s investment in ff is the future and AGW is not a big worry- however I get the impression that renewables [and smart energy use] are seen to threaten their 200 year power reign and certainly be a threat to investment.
Are traditional power companies and oil producers in serious cash trouble? And will the surprise limit be corporate collapse as seen with the banks with governments taking failing firms into public ownership?
Two other points- energy here in the UK is getting to a price point that my client base is increasing for energy efficiency- we have hit a tipping point where energy has moved from being too cheap to worry about to people being prepared to invest now to save later.
The other relates to your last post- renewables are pretty reliable with the benefit that being small generator units either in an array for wind or bank for PV the system is quick to repair, improvements can be made without switching the whole thing off and modifications can be made quickly- a big thermal power station with a 40 year life will only get the new improved version 40 years later.
As for the need for fossil fuels- we are only half way through our carbon budget [although a 2c rise hardly seems safe given 0.8c is playing havoc with the world’s weather]- the transition then, to a fully sustainable energy system/economy is a 100 year process but requires the opposite exponential contraction of consumption.
so for this period to 2020 we can only consume the same amount as we did in the 00s [which through low growth is something we appear to be doing] in the 2020s we can only consume the same amount as we consumed in the 1990s, and for the 2030s the same as we consumed in the 1980s- all the way to 2100 when we can consume 1 billion tonnes of coal equivalent – most likely for plastics.
The way supply is going this may be the contraction we will get anyway- better this transition than sudden collapse- I would like to think my son’s generation had something to look forward to.
We have to put the problems of private oil companies like Shell etc. into perspective. Most oil and natural gas is produced by national oil companies, and they make huge profits at current prices. There are almost 100 sovereign wealth funds globally, and they are desperately looking for investment opportunities to put all the billions into. Norway has one of the finest.
Despite having huge funds, Norway can see that current investment “opportunities” for oil really aren’t worth exploring–the payback won’t be sufficient.
The investments the sovereign wealth funds invest in are not going to be worth much in the long run. To a significant extent, it is necessary to spend the funds on goods and services now, or not at all.
Investing in English league soccer clubs seems to be where the big money is!
I agree that investing big money in a collapsing economy is very difficult. The Arab SWF’s try to convert their oil money into a “technological future” – I guess most readers here will agree that this approach will hardly work.
The point I wanted to make was that for most producers, oil is very profitable at current prices, and that the struggling of some private companies doesn’t mean there will be a complete and sudden collapse in oil production if prices drop to 70 or 60$. That’s one reason I am not so sure about your very soon and sudden collapse scenario.
the wackiest Arab idea of all, is that Saudi will become an oil importer by 2030.
So analyse just what that means, in only 15 years, the prime source of world oil will have run out. And despite all the promises, there is no other source to replace it
Come Jan 1st 2030, the Saudis won’t just close the oil ledger and look around for new supplies. Long before then, their own supplies will have got tighter and tighter, but in the meantime, their millions of unemployable young men will have become aware that their subsidised lifestyle (essentially free gas) is ending, so will look around for someone to blame for that.
They will not accept it as their own profligacy, any more than we do in the west. (we brits dug up and burned all our coal)
When those young Saudi men find there’s nothing left, they are going to resort to violence, that will physically close off access to what little oil is left. That will happen long before 2030. The middle east flashpoints now are just precursors to that.
When the Saudi oil tap starts to run dry, then the global oil market becomes unstable. When that happens the entire world economy wobbles with it. It won’t be to actual volume of available oil that will be the immediate problem, but the confidence that there will always be more, and ongoing access to it.
But oil producers recognise the critical nature of their asset. Stable producers will hold onto what they have, unstable producers will spawn warlords who will use oil wealth to further their ambitions, selling it to those willing to pay any price for it. Just guessing now, but I’d say that Saudi will descend into the ‘warlord’ camp, to try to extract the maximum value from a diminishing asset.
It’s interesting that the Saudis are now expelling millions of (despised and poorly treated) foreign workers, in order to compel their own to work. Of course it doesn’t address over-population one bit.
The thread that hold the sword swaying over the heads of Europeans grows tangibly thinner as time passes……
Oh, but we can always trust Putin for oil and gas: no worries……!
Whenever you have one supplier for a vital resource you will be robbed. It is called the free market.
Some speculation triggered by email exchange between Dmitry Orlov and Ugo Bardi.
The Orlov/Bardi exchange suggests some reasons why the former Soviet Union collapsed so promptly after oil use declined, while Italy has not suffered a similar collapse.
The exchange started me to thinking about the question ‘Why hasn’t the boom in oil production in Russia resulted in strong economic growth in Russia?’ I speculate as follows:
1. In order for an oil boom to spur significant, lasting economic growth, two conditions must be satisfied:
a. There must be significant net energy made available by the extraction
b. The net energy must be used to fuel activity in the broader economy
The simplest possibility that I see is that there really isn’t significant net energy in Russian oil. Consequently, there isn’t any potential for fueling much activity in the broader economy. It’s also possible that the structure of the Russian system does not funnel the net energy into the broader economy.
A country may have significant net energy potential, but if it simply turns that over to a multinational oil company, then the money from the net energy simply disappears into the global headquarters of the oil company.
The best that a country could experience would be two conditions:
A. There is significant net energy in their oil
B. The net energy is used to build capital resources which are useful in the broader economy.
Italy was, for a few decades, able to acquire oil which had a significant amount of net energy which had not already been harvested by the oil producing countries. It used some of this net energy to build infrastructure which was useful in the broader economy. Italy is now living off that infrastructure, but cannot use oil with significant net energy to replace it as it ages. And so far, no innovations have appeared which will permit Italy to build a new infrastructure with a similar energy requirement. Thus, we might say that the current trajectory is one wherein Italy will decline to a considerably lower energy intense infrastructure. And so we see the PV panels on Ugo’s roof.
Russia several strikes against it:
1. Huge geographical area.
2. Very cold climate,
3. Large population relative to the oil and gas it exports, and
4. Lack of good ports near population centers, so that it can export products it makes.
As a result, Russia needs huge energy use itself, just to stay even. It would need very much ramped up energy use from its current level to do things we would consider reasonable–have a nice interstate system, give the people of Russia potable drinking water, give people nicer living conditions. Without good roads and good export capacity, it is an exercise in frustration trying to make thinks for export. Also, with the cold climate, there is no way that Russia can compete with China and India in making things–the salaries of workers have to be too high, to pay for the heat for homes and heavy clothing.
Russia taxes oil exports heavily, to try to get enough funds to meet its budget needs, but with all of the people and the many needs, it is difficult to get enough. When lists are put together of countries where oil prices are not high enough for exporters, Russia is one of the countries with a problem. It needs higher prices to make ends meet. From the fact that the government can tax oil exports heavily, I would deduce it has some positive net energy, but not enough to satisfy the needs of the huge country.
Natural gas is more of a problem, because long pipelines need to be built for exporting the gas, causing major capital expenditures (some of them for oil). Russia would like oil prices tied to those for natural gas, but in recent years, prices in Europe have been lower, causing a problem. The tight balance is part of the problems in the Ukraine I expect.
I believe Russia is not doing so bad in terms of debt/GDP. The big bear ranks the better upon this among BRICS I guess, this being due to HC availability
Much more objective than Orlov. Russia faces immense challenges.
Gail – I wonder if you might consider a column specifically addressing the issue of substitution with regards to oil.
Whenever I raise the issue of expensive oil with MBA-types the common rejoinder is that if oil becomes too expensive it will be replaced by something else.
I suppose a few things:
– it’s been too expensive for years now
– we need the replacement miracle now
– it needs to be cheaper than oil
– even if one of the many miracle cures that we read about being ‘around the corner’ actually arrived – I do not believe any of those being discussed could replace oil — it would seem that oil is a rather unique substance.
I can think about writing such a column. The other issues, besides the ones you mention, are (1) the changeover itself requires resources, (2) it is very costly to replace anything that is not fully depreciated, meaning that the length of the changeover will be 25+ years, and (3) a substitute needs to be adequate in quantity to replace oil.
I think a problem is that cheap energy led to inefficient ways of living- all water, even the stuff to flush the loo is processed drinking water, – water is a good example- we use a gallon to flush a pint of pee away, which then has a huge amount of energy used on it to pump it to the processing plant, where more energy is used to clean it and energy is used to get rainwater, cleaned and delivered back to your loo. Pee in a bucket and put it on the vegetables is very low in energy use and beneficial, with a little marketing and a nice bathroom fitting this low tech process is just one alternative method.
Cheap energy is seen as a right by most westerners – more so in the US, here in the UK politicians are all promising cheap energy in the future as it is a political winner. However my business in home construction is seeing more interest and more investment in reducing consumption- energy bills are around £1400 [$2000] which for professionals is not a huge amount but enough for them to invest now to save later. The poorer in rental will be spending anything up to 1/10th of income now on energy but don’t have the resources and blindly hope for cheap fuel to return.
We have now switched the small holding from CFL to LED, it wasn’t particularly expensive but the savings are massive. this US site gives comparisons costs for 30 lights at 60watt equivalence as $328 for traditional bulbs a year, $76 for compact energy efficient lights and just $32 for LED http://www.designrecycleinc.com/led%20comp%20chart.html
the problem for those on low income is the upfront cost a 1200 hour 60 watt trad bulb is £1 and the LED version is £8 to 16 but last 50 times longer saving around £40 in a lifetime. But this is an example of cheap energy working against people- cheap imported shoes cost a few £$ but last months a quality pair costing £120 [my last investment in boots] last years. We are in the crazy situation where cheap credit could buy quality but instead is spent on lots of junk.
However fossil fuels only appear to be cheap because there are many hidden costs such as health care, lost production days from pollution- and not just China but cities like London, as well as the bigger cost of changing the climate. I saw a study that demonstrated new pv is cheaper over its entire life now than coal powered electric- whether solar could ever make solar is another matter.
The cynical promise of ‘cheap energy’ from fracking by UK politicians is shocking in its brazenness. One can see from comments in the UK press that many people believe in it. Well, they fall for the property bubble, too. One despairs.
David Holmgren has made waves in the small world of people who give a s—. Here, he discusses with Alex Smith his thoughts on his recent essay on the triumph of Brown Tech and the only chance he sees to reverse our slide toward catastrophe.
Alex says at the end that David has said many profound things, and he needs to replay the interview several times to make sure he understand it all.
You will find that one of his primary foci is ‘where is the capital going’? Gail has recently emphasized that collapse comes when capital is no longer available. David’s talk is followed by the reaction of Nicole Foss. You will find that Nicole thinks that collapse is about to happen, and it doesn’t make sense to get yourself any more in the line of fire for the blame than necessary.
My editorial is that David explains how his circle expected that financial pressure in the 1980s would force a redirection of capital as investors recognized the inevitability of resource depletion. and climate change 30 years later we can see that the redirection of capital did not happen. You can see Shell and Chevron and Exxon talking about the poor returns they have gotten from massive capital expenditures, but there is not a hint that their stock might not be a superb investment because ‘everything will get better next year, and our efforts will pay off’. In other words, double down on Brown Tech. I believe that both Gail and Nicole are quite confident that their predictions of collapse in the short term are right on the money, and perhaps they secretly wonder how Holmgren and his friends back in the 70s and 80s could have been so wrong.
Zero Hedge today has an interesting article by a DeutscheBank analyst. He says that the most interesting thing that has happened recently is the decision by China to bail out a 500 million dollar financial firm. China has been talking tough about bailouts…and yet they wilted under the pressure. His conclusion is that this is good for ‘us’. By ‘us’ he means the bankers. It is evidence that the governments are going to do everything possible to keep the current financial system on life support. So the bankers can keep on doing what they like to do.
My conclusion is that ordinary middle class citizens, such as David is appealing to, would be foolish to think they can fight the governments. You just end up getting killed by drones. Tending one’s garden is the best advice I could offer.
Here is the experience of one guy who followed your advise to tend his garden. https://www.facebook.com/groups/ThePanicRoom.EcosystemCollapse/permalink/671034612934838/
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Great article, Gail. I would like to follow up on EclipseNow, OscarThreeKilo and others, who envision a future where serious and imminent collapse does not happen, and why. I do fear EclipseNow is being very generous with his/her optimism, but i like his/her comments, anything that makes us think. I keep coming back to the issue about government, and the government’s potential for extraordinary measures. Writing from Norway (Bergen, I even know a few Tverbergs! Any relations in Bergen, Gail?) – my feeling is that the Norwegian state apparatus at least, is very resilient, one thing is that it is a creditor, not a debtor, another that in a fairly small and homogenous country, people wil accept rationing, state confiscation of land and assets etc, if they feel a crisis is real. WWII a case in point, of course. They also, as main share holder, already run Statoil, the most important oil company in the Norwegian sector of the North sea. Not that Statoil hasn’t had its problems lately…
Now a massive build-up of nuclear does seem far fetched, even for a state with a (pre-crisis) solid economy. If global trade breaks down, and the value of foreign assets with it, things will have to be kept simple and fairly local. But I really do think that many governments will, perhaps after a reorganization like the war cabinets of yesteryear, persist. It all depends of course, and no one can really tell in advance. But let’s say many governments do: How to keep the most important things working; electricity, some basic transport (food, ambulances, basic goods), and machines for essential mining and infrastructure repair. Oil rationing, obviously. And then, maybe coal. Coal is accessible with fairly simple means, ships and trains can be rebuilt to run on coal, heck, some are already there in museums, they pull them out every other year here in Bergen on Steam boat day, and the city centre overflows with dense, dirty smoke from their engines. But they do the job, and they can, in the future, do the job, even exporting coal from one country to another. Coal is accessible and low tech, or maybe I should say: Not impossibly high tech. Related to this are things like the oil shale they simply crush and burn in Estonia(not bothering to extract the oil first), in a fairly self powered process to generate electricity. Simple – and dirty.
The upshot of all this, of course, is that when collapse threatens and war and starvation become real possibilities, we will perhaps cluster around governments with extended powers (legally that is, not financially, of course) and limited accountabilities, and mitigate many of our troubles by burning the easy stuff. To turn off a coal powered generator if that should mean that people in hospitals will die, or essential food production cease, is fairly unthinkable. Such is the industrial corner we have painted ourselves into. And thus we reach – who knows – 700 ppm, 800ppm CO2 by the end of the century. And then, of course, we are well and truly done for, holding emergency workshops in “Geo-engineering for the future”, as the record storm pounds our poorly constructed flood barriers to pieces and swipes us out to sea.
Yes, my father’s parents emigrated from that area of Norway. My grandfather was born on a farm near Voss, now used (I understand) for some kind of extreme sports–gliding or some such thing.
While we theoretically could go backward, there are timing and investment problems here as well. With 7 billion people in the world, it is hard to suddenly make enough old style anything to work for today’s population. If we weren’t running short of investment capital, it wouldn’t be such a problem.
However, look at the history of the Soviet Union in WW2 and the treatment of the sick and wounded – letting them die was not unthinkable. When conditions are tough enough…..
True. What I meant was that purely environmental concerns will not be enough to motivate people to turn off life preserving power, and in a sense it shouldn’t be. That is, of course, part of the terrible dilemma we are in, and even more so will be in, if it turns out that we manage to maintain extensive fossil fuel use in one form or another, past a certain (6-700 ppm?) threshold. But of course I see Gail’s points, and have really no way of telling which scenario will play out. Gail: Voss is a beautiful small town, at least the scenery.. And the Tverbergs I know are very decent, intelligent people, which as far as I can tell speaks for a possible relation across the Atlantic 🙂
Quite agree with you. Everything will be maintained, even if it is, in the end, just a facade – for instance the whittling away of welfare systems in the poorer countries of Europe, and Britain – until it can’t be. The state hospital that can’t provide much, the pension that only buys a bag of potatoes, the run-down state school, etc. The process is well underway as far as I can observe, without wishing to exaggerate. And the background the totalitarian propaganda that ‘Recovery is Real’: I find Europe surreal these days!
Hello once again Gail,
Thank you for replying to my previous requests for facts regarding the likelihood of success of schemes proposed by Dick Smith and Andrew Forrest here in Australia. Sorry I didn’t thank you before now, but I thought I would pop off from all the heat and smoke, we have experienced recently. Never mind, I have another question regarding current happenings in Australia. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-31/shell-looking-to-sell-service-stations/5231278 I am not sure why Shell has decided to sell these assets,but your article gives some insight into the types of problems they are experiencing with global profitability. Is this proposed sale likely to be a windfall for the new Asian investors that buy these assets as suggested in the article? Is this all about freeing up funds for reinvestment for Shell or do you think that there are other factors as well? Do you think that this is a red flag that Australia is experiencing the same sorts of problems as other countries. I suppose if there is another collapse here, everybody thinks it won’t happen to them.
King regards H.
If the problem is oil prices that are not high enough, Shell will tend to lose money on the refining aspect of oil. It seems like they may also lows money on the service stations. All of these “feed” from the same pool of sales dollars. If there are not enough to go around, there will be a problem.
interesting report yesterday that Shell Australia is offloading its 900 filling stations
if vast profits were still to be had, they wouldnt be
Shell off-loaded it’s filling stations in New Zealand, a few years ago. The seem to be getting out of the retail business.
Yes, someone else mentioned that as well. If consumers can’t afford the high price of oil products, profitability tends to get hit on all parts of the supply chain.
This is a “sky is falling” forecast. It happens to be the exact opposite of the BP forecast here
BP predicts energy production will increase to about 17 billion TOE by the year 2030. You predict that it will fall to less than 4 TOE.
Your graph says “based on BP” — really?
What was the rest of the sentence that included the words “based on BP”? Would you like to tell us?
Former BP geologist: peak oil is here and it will ‘break economies’
US Army colonel: world is sleepwalking to a global energy crisis
Mark C. Lewis, former head of energy research at Deutsche Bank’s commodities unit highlighted three problems facing the global energy system: “very high decline rates” in global production; “soaring” investment requirements “to find new oil”; and since 2005, “falling exports of crude oil globally.”
Lewis told participants that the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) own “comprehensive” analysis in its World Energy Outlook of the 1,600 fields providing 70% of today’s global oil supply, show “an observed decline rate of 6.2%” – double the IEA’s stated estimate of future decline rate out to 2035 of about 3%.
Toil for oil means industry sums do not add up (FT.com)
Rising costs are being met only by ever smaller increases in supply
The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.
Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.
According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9mbd over the 75.2mbd produced in 2000.
However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).
This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density
The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of $10-$70 a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: $50-$90 a barrel for oil sands, $50-$100 for light-tight oil, and $70-$90 for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.
The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has increased. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly $700bn in 2012 compared with only $250bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).
Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from $350bn in that year to nearly $700bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).
All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.
The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from $38 a barrel in 2000 to $112 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.
However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at $710bn versus $590bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about $5 a barrel less this year than in 2011.
Iran not a game changer
That prices have fallen slightly since 2011 while capex has risen by a further 20 per cent is a flashing light on the industry’s dashboard indicating that its upstream growth engine may finally be overheating.
Without a significant technological breakthrough reversing the geological forces that have driven the unprecedented increase in upstream investment over the past decade, prices will have to rise further in real terms from here or else capex – and with it future oil production – will fall.
It should also be emphasised that this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.
Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some much needed short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m barrels a day if and when western sanctions were to be fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex treadmill in any fundamental sense.
Even if global oil demand only grows at 1 per cent a cent a year, those extra barrels would be would be fully absorbed by the market within about 18 months. And that is probably how long it would take for Iran’s production and exports to return to pre-sanctions levels in any case.
Alternatively, if we take the IEA’s estimate that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m barrels a day by 2035 (that is, by an average of 1.9m barrels a day per year), then Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m barrels a day would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.
In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact now more arduous and back-breaking than ever.
This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above $110 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.
Mark Lewis is an independent energy analyst and former head of energy research in commodities at Deutsche Bank; Daniel L Davis, a lieutenant colonel in the US Army, is co-author
Well done Paul!
I maintain a reference file of articles like that just for such occasions. They are quite powerful tools in the battle against ignorance 🙂
I concur with Christian: very good arguments, Paul. Having good weapons in the war against ignorance is always rewarding.
I would seem that the “Majors” are seeing the top of the peak:
Shell is divesting itself of “Assets” and Exxon is doubling down. Once the majors have had to discount their holdings the balance sheets will show even more bad debt that they will be hard pressed to pay back.
Based on BP historical data (Statistical Review of World Energy). I explain why all of the forecasts are wrong in my post, Why EIA, IEA, Rander’s 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong. BP could have been included in the list as well.
You missed the word “Historical…”
This article demonstrates the debilitating effect of high priced oil on growth — governments can try to offset with subsidies but like Medusa you just sprout another demon.
There is NO free lunch.
Governments in emerging markets face fuel subsidy dilemma
Although Brent crude oil remains well below its 2008 peak in dollar terms, it is at record levels in South African rand and Turkish lira. In the currencies of India, Indonesia and Brazil – the other so-called “fragile five” economies exposed to large import bills – Brent hit record levels late last year.
The result is a dilemma for emerging market governments. Either they allow fuel costs to rise, stoking inflation and discouraging consumption, or they absorb higher prices through subsidies, heaping further pressure on already-strained budgets.
“Falling currencies and higher oil import costs are testing energy-intensive patterns of growth across emerging markets,” said Amrita Sen, head of the Energy Aspects consultancy.
Many developing economies have become major importers of crude oil over the past decade as their economies have industrialised. That has helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel even as greater fuel efficiency has helped erode demand in the US and Europe.
Thanks! I hadn’t thought about oil prices actually increasing, in developing economies with falling currencies.
I am under the belief nickle-iron batteries have a 100 year life span. They also should be able to be made out of the scrap left over from industrialism. Not a solution to centralization, but mitigation for individuals and small communities.
My neighbour is suing me because he is accusing my head of damaging his brick wall,
however, in the interests of common humanity, I shall attempt one more bang:
It doesn’t matter how much scrap you have left over from industrialism, or how many old cars, bottles, tin cans or tyres you dig up from 30 year old dumps, (we will ignore corrosion for the moment) without heat input, and the necessary energy sources to provide that heat input, you cannot recycle anything in any meaningful volume.
It was heat input on a colossal scale that got us into this fine mess in the first place.
I’m not worried about meaningful volume.
if you disregard meaningful volume, then you are left with the concept of one person/family/small group trying to reform iron and nickel from scrap, together with some form of casing etc into a rather pathetic form of battery with which to ‘power’ their ‘lifestyle’ in some way.
The thought occurs to me to ask about recharging the battery, one can only assume raiding the detritus of an abandoned gym to get hold of an excercise bike.
If all this is not too facetious, would you care to elaborate on this concept?
I don’t like your use of the word pathetic. You are not worthy of my time, however, you do have the internet and I suggest you use it yo learn
before someone pulls your plug.
Put a helmet on, EoM, and keep it up!
“My neighbour is suing me because he is accusing my head of damaging his brick wall,”
LOL @ “accusing your head”. It makes me wonder what happened, did your mental powers cause his brick wall to crumble? 😀 Time to put your head on trial! 😉
I think I may have missed a metaphor there.
End of More – I agree with you. We need energy inputs, even to recycle.
A little more info about Cuba and food imports. Here are the statistics on the composition of imports:
Look at the bar chart. The imports are calorie dense bulk items such as vegetable oils, oilseed crops, cereals, pulses, and meats. Practically no vegetables or fruits are imported.
This is essentially the pattern that I have recommended many times for a household: grow your fruits and vegetables and buy the calorie dense foods from farmers. Cuba’s import food bill would multiply considerably if they were relying on fresh fruits and vegetables airlifted in from California.
Cuba’s bill for food imports is one and a half billion, compared to Jamaica’s one billion. Cuba’s population is 11.2 million while Jamaica has 2.7 million. So…you can see that Cuba is a lot more ‘food independent’ than Jamaica.
I’m not an expert on Cuban agriculture. But I would say that a cursory examination of the data indicate that growing fresh fruits and vegetables is a good idea, which they are executing pretty well…as compared to their neighbor Jamaica.
My area of North Carolina imports over 95 percent of its food, with a population of about 2 million. I would say that Cuba is doing outstandingly well compared to my neighborhood. If you permit ‘my neighborhood’ to include California, which is 3000 miles away, then we look a lot better. And California is currently very threatened by drought. I don’t understand the California water rules, but some districts have been told to expect ten percent of what they asked for. I have read that some farmers are shutting down production for lack of water.
So I rather doubt that the US is in much of a position to do much preaching.
Cuba is the best example we have, and not just on a wise use of food imports. Have to match it with some democracy also.
If they did not have a “social” mindset, I doubt they would have been able to adapt.
Thank you Don and Christian. Wonder what would happen if we had a decrease of 30% of oil in a few years! Just a “little” social unrest?
Have to wait and see. Spaniard physicist Antonio Turiel wrote a tale where poiticians first, scientists in the second place and journalists in the third are condemned to forced labor. I would put banksters in the very first place, indeed.
Cuba might be under water in 50 years.
Relative to Cuba and food imports. Cuba is a Carribean island, which gives it some advantages and some disadvantages. For example, the dry season is a magnet for tourists, but not so good for food production. Hurricanes rip through the Carribeans pretty regularly.
See this article about Jamaica, and the governments efforts to reduce the food import bill ‘as a matter of survival’.
The Jamaicans decided that they could earn all the money they needed from tourism and other outside sources, so it wasn’t necessary to grow food, they could just buy what they needed from elsewhere. Now those other sources are drying up, and food imports are costing more.
Many other nations fell into that trap, thinking food would always be cheaply available elsewhere.
This article verifies what people like James Howard Kunstler, (written some books on this) Nicole Foss (nailed this a long time ago) and Jeff Rubin (also had this right some time ago) have been telling everyone what this author is saying now. Jeff Rubin says and I quote “we will never run out of oil”, while that sounds good he also says we won’t be able to afford to extract oil reserves. Here is what I have done to prepare. I have a solar powered motorcycle. I won’t be using it much as its range is less than my bicycle and both need good weather. I have a pickup truck that burns either gasoline or propane. However if there is no gasoline, there probably won’t be any propane either. I am putting together a 60 volt electric car that eventually will be charged by solar. This may work for 3 seasons, but won’t work for deep winter. I have always doubted that there will be snowplows out after oil is too expensive for us as a nation, state, county, or city. That just leaves my Ford Taurus station wagon that burns 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. I am sure it will burn 100% ethanol once it is started. In Emmetsburg Iowa, about 200 miles from my home, they have just opened a full sized ethanol plant that uses the corn cobs, stalks, etc that are left over from a corn harvest to make ethanol and there is a regular ethanol plant 15 miles from me. So my Ford is a good bet, although it too may not be workable. Actually it is my bicycle with lots of pre-bought spare parts and tires, with a trailer that can give me about a 30 mile range in good weather, which is probably all I will need. Two last thoughts. As this author says, oil companies will need capital to keep the oil coming. There is another oil that burns in a diesel engine (think snowplows and trains) and we all can grow it ourselves. High THC marijuana can produce up to 200 gallons of seed oil per acre. Many people have 1/4 acre of lawn that represents 50 gallons of oil. That oil burned in the new Volkswagen diesel that is coming out this year and is a diesel and gets over 200 miles per gallon. That’s 10,000 miles a year. So there is at least one solution. Thought two. Solar will offer solutions at some point. Especially for manufacturing. Ray Kurzweil says that the world will be 100% solar powered in just 16 years. Solar is growing exponentially. Right now the world solar electric output is 1%. That doesn’t sound like much, but output is doubling every two years. OOPS! I didn’t realize that I was going to write a book when I started. 🙂
Interesting. Cannabis was a major crop in human history unitl the 30s, and was used for a wide range of industrial applications. I’is also important that the first antidrug zar in the world, Harry Anslinger, who promoted cannabis ban and obtained it, was the son-in-law of Dupont Chemical’s owner. They’ve just synhesized nylon and find it cool to outlaw their natural competitor. Cannabis would play a major role in any possible transition.
Cannnabis oil energy content equals diesel’s?
@Christian and Rodney7777 re Cannabis. Hemp, with less ‘bang’ was ‘re-legalized’ by the War Department during WWII due to Japanese conquest of the Philippines, which was the USA’s only supplier — since the 1933/34 taxation and subsequent de facto criminalization of pot and hemp. So Uncle paid farmers in Kentucky and elsewhere to grow it during the war years, then threw the switch in the other direction later. The de facto criminalization be came de jure in 1953, I think it was, as existentialists threatened to destruct society… Googling hemp brings a good read. It is still the strongest (tensile) natural fiber, and was only overtaken 30 years ago by the advanced aramid fibers (e.g., kevlar) that are used for ‘ballistic protection’ gear.. The original Levi’s jeans, ships’ sails (canvas — cannabis), etc., were all made from it. It’s grown all over the world and mentioned in the bible. Production takes developed skills.
I think I’d be more concerned with producing food vs transportation that uses any sort of oil.
Well, we have to transport the produced food… Chariots and horses?
I don’t think the food will be moving very far — it’s not as if we will have grocery stores.
I am with Kuntsler on this — economies will completely local — as in very small villages.
And yes – horses – and oxen.
There will be no lorries – or cars – or motorcycles – or other such machinery. Because once those break there will be no repairing them – because there will be no spare parts.
Trying to preserve elements of the current economic paradigm are a fools game — and a waste of time and resources.
Yeah, but in 20 years some trucks, tractors and boats will still be operating. You can dismantle, say, a car and use its parts to fix other ones. I can send to you some very creative argentinean mechanics to fix them.
Thanks Gail for this great post!
i shared it with my colleagues and their reply was like ‘yes i understand..maybe in 50-70 years will happen something..’.
Anyway here in Italy everything goes like 10 years ago..a lot of traffic, things cost a lot (also old houses..at least 4000$ square meter) and people have huge cars and new smartphones..
It is like something is growing before imploding..
‘The candle shines most brightly just before it gutters and is extinguished, so too do kingdoms and empires’.
Ibn Khaldun, the Arab political philosopher about 700 years ago. Proved right many times, for reasons we all know here!
Except I think that in Italy jobs are a problem. It is this lack of jobs that tends to bring down the system.
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Denis Frith wrote: “This discussion is an anthropocentric view of what is happening in the physical world…”
Hmmmm…perhaps an anthropocentric view is too limited. If one were to look at peak-natural-resources/decreasing-credit from a ecocentric (GAIA-centic?) view then one outcome could be this: nature’s determination of whether or not an intelligent species should be allowed to survive – i.e. whether or not the species is smart enought NOT to harvest the easy-to-get resources (until depletion) while leaving all of the machinery running that needs the easy-to-get resources to function.
This may all be a test of the human race.
Hubbert also articulated these issue in his paper ‘Exponentional Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History’ where he contrasted the physical constraints of energy and materials extraction with the infinite ability to create money/debt. Basically you can’t grow infinitely within a finite system – the Earth. The current debt mountain and population overshoot (beyond what is sustainable) are reflections of this as articulate . This will result culminate in a crisis. I would point out that going local and becoming more sustainable is good. However, the current global population will not be able to go ‘local’ as the vast majority live in cities.
“I would point out that going local and becoming more sustainable is good. However, the current global population will not be able to go ‘local’ as the vast majority live in cities.”
Exactly! The majority of people live in cities and the recent trend has been for even more people to move to cities worldwide, with China as a great example. Once collapse occurs and food sources in cities are exhausted, they will pulse outwards into the country looking for small farming towns and permaculture communes to join, but they will probably be booked solid long before they show up. Vehicles will be strewn along the roads as they run out of fuel seeking new opportunities. So unless a city dweller has a lock on some ‘local’ opportunity or can hook up with a band of renegades to forcefully take what they want as they pilfer other people’s caches, cris-crossing the backroads, it’s not going to work for most city dwellers. The one’s that make it will live in the rural backcountry with lots of land, dogs to protect the fence-line from intruders, chickens for eggs and protein and lots of different produce grown right there. I’m not even sure small communes will work because the food won’t go far enough. Probably just families that have those kinds of properties. But they will be the one’s that make it through the bottle-neck and represent the new homo-survivalist in the post oil age.
Maybe not. What really happens in collapse is much too complex to predict, because we fall from such a high level, and will lose many things we take for granted. Urban food distribution is not the only thing. The crisis will be global, sparing no one. Deforestation, plagues, even war.
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A Forecast Of Our Energy Future; Why Common Solutions Don’t Work
Thanks! I noticed the Zero-Hedge link. The Zero-Hedge link shows 19,575 views.
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Dear Gail and All
I’m not endorsing this reference, so don’t argue with me. But a completely different view of the energy future can be found here:
In short, ‘smaller, faster, cheaper’ with localized ownership and control. Most of what we see discussed here is either gigantic (reactors), or more of the same (centralized grid), or collapse and electricity goes away. Just to round out the menu.
At one point, Jeremy Leggett was in the business of selling solar PV. I don’t know if he still is.
In the comments field of this post there has been a lot of talk about feelings about collapse. I find it humbling and in a way maybe consoling to think about the fact that more than a billion people already today have it worse than how we imagine having it in our worst cases scenarios. Think of people in rural Central african republic, Tchad, eastern Congo etc. They don’t have access to health care, antibiotics, industrial fertilizers, motor vehicles etc etc.
Maybe a financial collapse even will make their lives better in some ways (for example no international companies coming to mine their land, bringing destruction). It can’t make it that much worse at least. (Sure a collapse will halt western aid, but that aid is not reaching a majority of the people in need today anyway.)
I think at least some of the feelings for some of the people come from not knowing what the worst case scenario really is, or how collapse will really play out, nor when it will happen. Uncertainty breeds stress. I think a better attitude is to recognize life was always uncertain, more uncertain than we thought, and though our perception of the world may change, the world itself is still quite the same.
Thinking to much about Collapse can be a bit like peeking into a medical dictionary – one ghastly thing leads to another and before long….. Best not indulged in too much!
Very true xabier. Glad to have you on this board for your insights and perspectives (and your humor!)
It seems that you were right about Yemen
“Disgruntled tribesmen stage these attacks to pressure the government to provide jobs, settle land disputes or free relatives from prison.Such lawlessness is a global concern, particularly for the United States and its Gulf Arab allies, because of Yemen’s strategic position next to oil exporter Saudi Arabia and to main shipping lanes.”
Thanks for pointing this out. It is very difficult for oil production to drop and the wealth of an exporter to drop. Things tend to fall apart.
I wonder if this another warning sign Germany wants to use military more….. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101382198….. I don’t think interest rates can go up without collapsing the economy…I think in the end that will be the final straw….
I agree that interest rates can’t go up. The whole system will collapse.
Dear Ms Tverberg,
Over the last year you have argued that our present recessionary economic situation is being driven by the end of cheap oil. This might be the case, but the data you present might also be explained by residual confounding, ie economic growth generally coincides with increased oil consumption, and economic growth is largest in developing countries, that use relatively more coal. So, the graphs in figures 5-7 might also be explained as a normal phase in a deflationary depression, caused by a debt bubble. Energy uses would then be proxies for economic activity, and not be the sole driver of them. The unique feature of the present depression would be the truly global nature.
Figure 9 is a prediction of “peak energy” happening around 2015. On what data is it based ? I find that hard to believe, as energy prices would be much higher with such dramatic supply decreases just around the corner.
The data I have seen indicates oil peaked in 2006. I’ve posted the links to articles in the FT.com, Christian Science Monitor and The Guardian previously
I am also wondering about that issue. Of course, everything has to peak at some point, and especially oil is already there. But that doesn’t mean it is the cause of all the things happening right now. Even examples like the stronger use of oil in crisis countries like Greece and Spain don’t necessarily proof causality.
I think it is possible that credit and debt were more of a driver to the economy and the huge money making of the last decades, than was cheap oil. So as debt reaches limits, we enter decline, going down from the highest “prosperity” ever. The part of oil would be, that it just doesn’t feed the debt system as it used to.
The key reason I think that the end of cheap oil is the disease and the financial crisis the symptom is that oil went from $12 in 1998 to $38 around 2001.
And that was when the money spigot was opened by the Fed – I believe they did that to fight stagnating growth — higher energy costs reduce consumption which, if left unchecked, would stop growth and lead to an economic death spiral.
I used to ask myself ‘why in the hell would the Fed tolerate Liar Loans and corruption in the ratings agencies – surely they knew this was going on – and surely they knew it would end badly’
So why engage in seemingly suicidal behaviour? I think we have our answer – they had no choice – hose the economy with easy money or collapse.
And of course what did they do after the collapse – of course they tripled and quadrupled down on seemingly bad policy – QE + ZIRP – a dual death wish for the global economy that has blown bubbles far bigger than the earlier housing bubble.
The picture is very clear to me now – I am sure the Fed understands that these policies are ultimately not going to result in a recovery — they are simply trying to get a few more miles out of the clunker that is burning oil faster than it burns gasoline.
The engine is beyond repair – if pouring jet fuel into the carburetor gets it to run a few hundred miles further — then pour in the jet fuel.
The end result will be the same – catastrophic collapse with pistons and o-rings flying everywhere
Britain has a long and interesting debt history. To me, it looks like this:
The first time, they escaped by creating the famous Empire.
The second time, modern industry including oil, services and finance helped them out.
Now they are just going for another round, and this time escape will be difficult.
Paul: Good for you for thinking back to that important time period — 1998 to 2003. We forget too easily all the immense crises and changes that occurred in the 1990s, including the short recession in 2000 – 2001. Remember the Davos yuppies claiming that the market was going to stay high forever because they have rejiggered economics? Books like 36,000 Dow were accepted as the wave of the future. GWB’s election ‘compassionate conservatism’ was going to bridge gaps with ‘Great Society’ ideas to solve all the big financial problems: pensions, privatizing Social Security, cheap health care, etc.
In the summer of 2001 there was great expectation that the Fed had ‘fixed’ the minor contraction — 8 out of 9 quarters, followed by a hockey stick climb. All parties, including the Fed, were getting ready for some serious political efforts to ensure the nation’s financial future. So oil went from $18 to $28, the housing market picked up, and everybody was happily waiting for the next sunrise.
Ooops, some silly Chinese fighter pilot slammed into an EP-3, triggering the neocons to start the preliminaries of a war party against China. August got a little tenser, as the neocons love to have a nasty enemy to point at while shrieking.
The first weeks of September are always among the most alluring in Washington, DC. and New York. Warm but not hot, kids back to school. Football season just beginning.
Economic growth is not holding up, at the same time that Quantitative Easing is running into limits. The economy has not really recovered since the 2008 crisis. Oil prices are not rising high enough to keep up reinvestment. The whole system will fall apart in a debt related collapse in not very long. Things that can’t go on forever, won’t.
The problem that causes Figure 9 is debt defaults and oil prices that are too low to support investment. People without wages can’t bid up oil prices. It is simply a myth that oil prices will rise high enough to keep up investment. People need jobs to buy things. Also rising debt, so that they can buy big-ticket items. With jobs growth flat to falling, and contracting debt, demand has to stay low.
It was interesting to watch Bernanke’s last press conference. He did not address the issue of what the FED would do if there was another contraction (recession), everything he said seems to indicate that the FED realizes it can do absolutely nothing if despite ZIRP and QE there is another recession. That or the FED simply doesn’t want anyone to think that another recession is possible with their all powerful monetary tools. Perhaps they do have a plan, but it would be so extreme there is no way they could reveal to congress or to the public what it is.
Is there a link to Bernanke’s last press conference? I didn’t see it.
It is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Dtma_jcYrg&app=desktop It is nearly an hour long though.But I was curious to watch (well listen to actually) it all to see if Bernanke or any of the journalists would show that they have any idea how the world really operates. (they didn’t) Still it was interesting to hear the many different ways Bernanke rationalized the Fed’s actions.
Additionally it is evident that “increased transparency” is really increased PR to shield the public and maybe politicians too from what they are really doing or what is really going on.
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I reply here to Peter and Paul.
It’s not an easy task, I feel uncomfortable some times and people easily denies, but I’ve never received blank stares. Even more, some of them are thankful of hearing the truth. Why? First, there are some social features acting positively, I guess. Here we are aware industrial wealth promises disappoint many times, and there had always been some poverty. Things never had gone perfect. Nevertheless, a month ago I’ve met a Spaniard that have read some of my stuff, and he enjoyed it.
Secondly, I was not aware of the real situation and started talking about the economy culminating some time before 2030, adding new posts where things looked increasingly bad. So, the very true was gradually absorbed, and it was easier this way. Thirdly, many people cannot be sure if I’m right or not because of lack of information (those who had just read the magazine, for instance, where on purpose I started talking of elections and ended with peak oil). Because of fear they don’t make any questions and prefer waiting to see what happens, and the political and economical evolution is telling them I may be right.
And there are some hippies and permaculture people that were not so badly prepared to receive the news. Also, I live in a little town and some uneducated people find it amazing that somebody they know may talk about global issues, and to do it from a startling point of view. They can even have a chance to feel proud of a neighbor.
Regarding politicians, they are just as afraid as the more informed others. Until now they didn’t wanted to go deeper on this issue, but I’ve always seen in their eyes they knew I was right. This new reality threatens their job because they are growth sellers. Notwithstanding, in my province the party which I belong is not so much interested in growth but rather in wealth distribution, civil rights, environment, etc. Guys on the top are more interested in growth. I’m not sure what will happen with them, but I’ll pressure them very strong if I have the chance. The fact I work in politics and am not a simple citizen who just demands and don’t take responsibility is crucial.
Finally, I’ve never taken a doomer position, just said “things will not work this way anymore”. Growth fanatics respond me “it’s the end of the world”. It’s their point of view, not mine. It’s surely the end of one kind of world, but I know there are other ways of living. Peter, I’ve studied some anthropology too, and I believe this field could make some contribution to the present situation (I think on the Mith of the Golden Age, for instance). Nevertheless, moving to Canada seems a prudent choice, especially if you have kids or want to have one. Good luck.
I have to say, that anthropology has been useful to me personally in seeing and understanding a little more how and why societies and groups of people work. I’m glad you’ve found more receptive people. I can only assume that because I have always lived in more urban areas, the people have virtually no recognition of the economic chain of events that give them their lifestyle. I am choosing a few friends I think may be receptive and I’m going to warn them, but as far as I know, I’m the only one who’s going to actively do something to repair: moving, studying, reading, collecting a few tools, look for a community etc.. I don’t even think my family would do anything, so I don’t want to tell them.
What I can do is very limited, and I wish I knew people concerned like me, but I don’t. In the end, I’m afraid it will be just me going off to Canada, and even there I might not find helpful people. I hope I do though. It’s a very stressful time though.
Perhaps 58% youth unemployment makes for a more receptive audience to this message. The people I speak to about this continue to thrive — they are the fortunate ones in places like Hong Kong and Canada where the economies have not yet taken hits.
Easier to be blinkered when one does not see or participate in the suffering.
That will of course change