A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it:
1. Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 per barrel.
A few countries can get oil out of the ground for $30 per barrel. Figure 1 gives an approximation to technical extraction costs for various countries. Even on this basis, there aren’t many countries extracting oil for under $30 per barrel–only Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. We wouldn’t have much crude oil if only these countries produced oil.
Figure 1. Global breakeven prices (considering only technical extraction costs) versus production. Source: Alliance Bernstein, October 2014
2. Oil producers really need prices that are higher than the technical extraction costs shown in Figure 1, making the situation even worse.
Oil can only be extracted within a broader system. Companies need to pay taxes. These can be very high. Including these costs has historically brought total costs for many OPEC countries to over $100 per barrel.
Independent oil companies in non-OPEC countries also have costs other than technical extraction costs, including taxes and dividends to stockholders. Also, if companies are to avoid borrowing a huge amount of money, they need to have higher prices than simply the technical extraction costs. If they need to borrow, interest costs need to be considered as well.
3. When oil prices drop very low, producers generally don’t stop producing.
There are built-in delays in the oil production system. It takes several years to put a new oil extraction project in place. If companies have been working on a project, they generally won’t stop just because prices happen to be low. One reason for continuing on a project is the existence of debt that must be repaid with interest, whether or not the project continues.
Also, once an oil well is drilled, it can continue to produce for several years. Ongoing costs after the initial drilling are generally very low. These previously drilled wells will generally be kept operating, regardless of the current selling price for oil. In theory, these wells can be stopped and restarted, but the costs involved tend to deter this action.
Oil exporters will continue to drill new wells because their governments badly need tax revenue from oil sales to fund government programs. These countries tend to have low extraction costs; nearly the entire difference between the market price of oil and the price required to operate the oil company ends up being paid in taxes. Thus, there is an incentive to raise production to help generate additional tax revenue, if prices drop. This is the issue for Saudi Arabia and many other OPEC nations.
Very often, oil companies will purchase derivative contracts that protect themselves from the impact of a drop in market prices for a specified time period (typically a year or two). These companies will tend to ignore price drops for as long as these contracts are in place.
There is also the issue of employee retention. In a sense, a company’s greatest assets are its employees. Once these employees are lost, it will be hard to hire and retrain new employees. So employees are kept on as long as possible.
The US keeps raising its biofuel mandate, regardless of the price of oil. No one stops to realize that in the current over-supplied situation, the mandate adds to low price pressures.
One brake on the system should be the financial pain induced by low oil prices, but this braking effect doesn’t necessarily happen quickly. Oil exporters often have sovereign wealth funds that they can tap to offset low tax revenue. Because of the availability of these funds, some exporters can continue to finance governmental services for two or more years, even with very low oil prices.
Defaults on loans to oil companies should also act as a brake on the system. We know that during the Great Recession, regulators allowed commercial real estate loans to be extended, even when property valuations fell, thus keeping the problem hidden. There is a temptation for regulators to allow similar leniency regarding oil company loans. If this happens, the “braking effect” on the system is reduced, allowing the default problem to grow until it becomes very large and can no longer be hidden.
4. Oil demand doesn’t increase very rapidly after prices drop from a high level.
People often think that going from a low price to a high price is the opposite of going from a high price to a low price, in terms of the effect on the economy. This is not really the case.
4a. When oil prices rise from a low price to a high price, this generally means that production has been inadequate, with only the production that could be obtained at the prior lower price. The price must rise to a higher level in order to encourage additional production.
The reason that the cost of oil production tends to rise is because the cheapest-to-extract oil is removed first. Oil producers must thus keep adding production that is ever-more expensive for one reason or another: harder to reach location, more advanced technology, or needing additional steps that require additional human labor and more physical resources. Growing efficiencies can somewhat offset this trend, but the overall trend in the cost of oil production has been sharply upward since about 1999.
The rising price of oil has an adverse impact on affordability. The usual pattern is that after a rise in the price of oil, economies of oil importing nations go into recession. This happens because workers’ wages do not rise at the same time as oil prices. As a result, workers find that they cannot buy as many discretionary items and must cut back. These cutbacks in purchases create problems for businesses, because businesses generally have high fixed costs including mortgages and other debt payments. If these businesses are to continue to operate, they are forced to cut costs in one way or another. Cost reduction occurs in many ways, including reducing wages for workers, layoffs, automation, and outsourcing of manufacturing to cheaper locations.
For both employers and employees, the impact of these rapid changes often feels like a rug has been pulled out from under foot. It is very unpleasant and disconcerting.
4b. When prices fall, the situation that occurs is not the opposite of 4a. Employers find that thanks to lower oil prices, their costs are a little lower. Very often, they will try to keep some of these savings as higher profits. Governments may choose to raise tax rates on oil products when oil prices fall, because consumers will be less sensitive to such a change than otherwise would be the case. Businesses have no motivation to give up cost-saving techniques they have adopted, such as automation or outsourcing to a cheaper location.
Few businesses will construct new factories with the expectation that low oil prices will be available for a long time, because they realize that low prices are only temporary. They know that if oil prices don’t go back up in a fairly short period of time (months or a few years), the quantity of oil available is likely to drop precipitously. If sufficient oil is to be available in the future, oil prices will need to be high enough to cover the true cost of production. Thus, current low prices are at most a temporary benefit–something like the eye of a hurricane.
Since the impact of low prices is only temporary, businesses will want to adopt only changes that can take place quickly and can be easily reversed. A restaurant or bar might add more waiters and waitresses. A car sales business might add a few more salesmen because car sales might be better. A factory making cars might schedule more shifts of workers, so as to keep the number of cars produced very high. Airlines might add more flights, if they can do so without purchasing additional planes.
Because of these issues, the jobs that are added to the economy are likely to be mostly in the service sector. The shift toward outsourcing to lower-cost countries and automation can be expected to continue. Citizens will get some benefit from the lower oil prices, but not as much as if governments and businesses weren’t first in line to get their share of the savings. The benefit to citizens will be much less than if all of the people who were laid off in the last recession got their jobs back.
5. The sharp drop in oil prices in the last 18 months has little to do with the cost of production.
Instead, recent oil prices represent an attempt by the market to find a balance between supply and demand. Since supply doesn’t come down quickly in response to lower prices, and demand doesn’t rise quickly in response to lower prices, prices can drop very low–far below the cost of production.
As noted in Section 4, high oil prices tend to be recessionary. The primary way of offsetting recessionary forces is by directly or indirectly adding debt at low interest rates. With this increased debt, more homes and factories can be built, and more cars can be purchased. The economy can be forced to act in a more “normal” manner because the low interest rates and the additional debt in some sense counteract the adverse impact of high oil prices.
Figure 2. World oil supply and prices based on EIA data.
Oil prices dropped very low in 2008, as a result of the recessionary influences that take place when oil prices are high. It was only with the benefit of considerable debt-based stimulation that oil prices were gradually pumped back up to the $100+ per barrel level. This stimulation included US deficit spending, Quantitative Easing (QE) starting in December 2008, and a considerable increase in debt by the Chinese.
Commodity prices tend to be very volatile because we use such large quantities of them and because storage is quite limited. Supply and demand have to balance almost exactly, or prices spike higher or lower. We are now back to an “out of balance” situation, similar to where we were in late 2008. Our options for fixing the situation are more limited this time. Interest rates are already very low, and governments generally feel that they have as much debt as they can safely handle.
6. One contributing factor to today’s low oil prices is a drop-off in the stimulus efforts of 2008.
As noted in Section 4, high oil prices tend to be recessionary. As noted in Section 5, this recessionary impact can, at least to some extent, be offset by stimulus in the form of increased debt and lower interest rates. Unfortunately, this stimulus has tended to have adverse consequences. It encouraged overbuilding of both homes and factories in China. It encouraged a speculative rise in asset prices. It encouraged investments in enterprises of questionable profitability, including many investments in oil from US shale formations.
In response to these problems, the amount of stimulus is being reduced. The US discontinued its QE program and cut back its deficit spending. It even began raising interest rates in December 2015. China is also cutting back on the quantity of new debt it is adding.
Unfortunately, without the high level of past stimulus, it is difficult for the world economy to grow rapidly enough to keep the prices of all commodities, including oil, high. This is a major contributing factor to current low prices.
7. The danger with very low oil prices is that we will lose the energy products upon which our economy depends.
There are a number of different ways that oil production can be lost if low oil prices continue for an extended period.
In oil exporting countries, there can be revolutions and political unrest leading to a loss of oil production.
In almost any country, there can be a sharp reduction in production because oil companies cannot obtain debt financing to pay for more services. In some cases, companies may go bankrupt, and the new owners may choose not to extract oil at low prices.
There can also be systemwide financial problems that indirectly lead to much lower oil production. For example, if banks cannot be depended upon for payroll services, or to guarantee payment for international shipments, such problems would affect all oil companies, not just ones in financial difficulty.
Oil is not unique in its problems. Coal and natural gas are also experiencing low prices. They could experience disruptions indirectly because of continued low prices.
8. The economy cannot get along without an adequate supply of oil and other fossil fuel products.
We often read articles in the press that seem to suggest that the economy could get along without fossil fuels. For example, the impression is given that renewables are “just around the corner,” and their existence will eliminate the need for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, at this point in time, we are nowhere near being able to get along without fossil fuels.
Food is grown and transported using oil products. Roads are made and maintained using oil and other energy products. Oil is our single largest energy product.
Experience over a very long period shows a close tie between energy use and GDP growth (Figure 3). Nearly all technology is made using fossil fuel products, so even energy growth ascribed to technology improvements could be considered to be available to a significant extent because of fossil fuels.
Figure 3. World GDP growth compared to world energy consumption growth for selected time periods since 1820. World real GDP trends from 1975 to present are based on USDA real GDP data in 2010$ for 1975 and subsequent. (Estimated by the author for 2015.) GDP estimates for prior to 1975 are based on Maddison project updates as of 2013. Growth in the use of energy products is based on a combination of data from Appendix A data from Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 for 1965 and subsequent.
While renewables are being added, they still represent only a tiny share of the world’s energy consumption.
Figure 4. World energy consumption by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
Thus, we are nowhere near a point where the world economy could continue to function without an adequate supply of oil, coal and natural gas.
9. Many people believe that oil prices will bounce back up again, and everything will be fine. This seems unlikely.
The growing cost of oil extraction that we have been encountering in the last 15 years represents one form of diminishing returns. Once the cost of making energy products becomes high, an economy is permanently handicapped. Prices higher than those maintained in the 2011-2014 period are really needed if extraction is to continue and grow. Unfortunately, such high prices tend to be recessionary. As a result, high prices tend to push demand down. When demand falls too low, prices tend to fall very low.
There are several ways to improve demand for commodities, and thus raise prices again. These include (a) increasing wages of non-elite workers (b) increasing the proportion of the population with jobs, and (c) increasing the amount of debt. None of these are moving in the “right” direction.
Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies points out that once diminishing returns set in, the response is more “complexity” to solve these problems. Government programs become more important, and taxes are often higher. Education of elite workers becomes more important. Businesses become larger. This increased complexity leads to more of the output of the economy being funneled to sectors of the economy other than the wages of non-elite workers. Because there are so many of these non-elite workers, their lack of buying power adversely affects demand for goods that use commodities, such as homes, cars, and motorcycles.1
Another force tending to hold down demand is a smaller proportion of the population in the labor force. There are many factors contributing to this: Young people are in school longer. The bulge of workers born after World War II is now reaching retirement age. Lagging wages make it increasingly difficult for young parents to afford childcare so that both can work.
As noted in Section 5, debt growth is no longer rising as rapidly as in the past. In fact, we are seeing the beginning of interest rate increases.
When we add to these problems the slowdown in growth in the Chinese economy and the new oil that Iran will be adding to the world oil supply, it is hard to see how the oil imbalance will be fixed in any reasonable time period. Instead, the imbalance seems likely to remain at a high level, or even get worse. With limited storage available, prices will tend to continue to fall.
10. The rapid run up in US oil production after 2008 has been a significant contributor to the mismatch between oil supply and demand that has taken place since mid-2014.
Without US production, world oil production (broadly defined, including biofuels and natural gas liquids) is close to flat.
Figure 5. Total liquids oil production for the world as a whole and for the world excluding the US, based on EIA International Petroleum Monthly data.
Viewed separately, US oil production has risen very rapidly. Total production rose by about six million barrels per day between 2008 and 2015.
Figure 6. US Liquids production, based on EIA data (International Petroleum Monthly, through June 2015; supplemented by December Monthly Energy Review for most recent data).
US oil supply was able to rise very rapidly partly because QE led to the availability of debt at very low interest rates. In addition, investors found yields on debt so low that they purchased almost any equity investment that appeared to have a chance of long-term value. The combination of these factors, plus the belief that oil prices would always increase because extraction costs tend to rise over time, funneled large amounts of investment funds into the liquid fuels sector.
As a result, US oil production (broadly defined), increased rapidly, increasing nearly 1.0 million barrels per day in 2012, 1.2 million barrels per day in 2013, 1.7 million barrels per day in 2014. The final numbers are not in, but it looks like US oil production will still increase by another 700,000 barrels a day in 2015. The 700,000 extra barrels of oil added by the US in 2015 is likely greater than the amount added by either Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
World oil consumption does not increase rapidly when oil prices are high. World oil consumption increased by 871,000 barrels a day in 2012, 1,397,000 barrels a day in 2013, and 843,000 barrels a day in 2014, according to BP. Thus, in 2014, the US by itself added approximately twice as much oil production as the increase in world oil demand. This mismatch likely contributed to collapsing oil prices in 2014.
Given the apparent role of the US in creating the mismatch between oil supply and demand, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Saudi Arabia is unwilling to try to fix the problem.
Conclusion
Things aren’t working out the way we had hoped. We can’t seem to get oil supply and demand in balance. If prices are high, oil companies can extract a lot of oil, but consumers can’t afford the products that use it, such as homes and cars; if oil prices are low, oil companies try to continue to extract oil, but soon develop financial problems.
Complicating the problem is the economy’s continued need for stimulus in order to keep the prices of oil and other commodities high enough to encourage production. Stimulus seems to takes the form of ever-rising debt at ever-lower interest rates. Such a program isn’t sustainable, partly because it leads to mal-investment and partly because it leads to a debt bubble that is subject to collapse.
Stimulus seems to be needed because of today’s high extraction cost for oil. If the cost of extraction were still very low, this stimulus wouldn’t be needed because products made using oil would be more affordable.
Decision makers thought that peak oil could be fixed simply by producing more oil and more oil substitutes. It is becoming increasingly clear that the problem is more complicated than this. We need to find a way to make the whole system operate correctly. We need to produce exactly the correct amount of oil that buyers can afford. Prices need to be high enough for oil producers, but not too high for purchasers of goods using oil. The amount of debt should not spiral out of control. There doesn’t seem to be a way to produce the desired outcome, now that oil extraction costs are high.
Rigidities built into the oil price-supply system (as described in Sections 3 and 4) tend to hide problems, letting them grow bigger and bigger. This is why we could suddenly find ourselves with a major financial problem that few have anticipated.
Unfortunately, what we are facing now is a predicament, rather than a problem. There is quite likely no good solution. This is a worry.
Note:
[1] For example, more dividend and interest payments are paid, tending to benefit the financial industry and the elite classes. More of the output of the economy goes to workers in supervisory positions or having advanced education. Other workers–those with more “ordinary” responsibilities–find their wages falling behind the general rise in the cost of living. As a result, they find it increasingly difficult to buy cars, homes, motorcycles, and other goods that use commodities.
China Warns Soros Against Starting A Currency War: “You Cannot Possibly Succeed, Ha, Ha”
“Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt. Reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences. And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/china-warns-soros-against-starting-fx-war-ha-ha-you-cannot-possibly-succeed
China (and Russia) vs The Elders….
Interesting…..
France’s Highways Descend Into “Chaos & Lawlessness”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/frances-highways-descend-chaos-lawlessness
And finally — this time we have some video to go with the dramatic fear-inspiring headlines…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=599&v=CXYnEB50A8E
OMG! Look — there are brown-skinned men walking alongside the highway!!!! It’s total chaos — it looks like the wild wild west!!! Look at them walking …. there’s more of them … walking…. there’s one jogging along…. oh look are those guys talking? …. planning to rape women no doubt….. or shit in a swimming pool….
I wonder where they came from — Syria? — well one would think they should be running not walking… although they might be tired of running….
Clearly the media has an agenda — even ZH — which bills itself as being different — is playing along on this one ….. (which once again makes me wonder what Zero Hedge really is….)
“Clearly the media has an agenda ”
The media has ignored the rapes until many days after when the reports on social media were so overwhelming they had to report in order to spin
So theres no agenda to open immigration from Muslim countries but when their behavior is reported on after many days delay- thats a racist agenda?
Are the brown on brown rapes in northern Africa a “media agenda” too? Is it all right to consider brown women rape victims or is it only the white women that can not be victims? Why do you think women wear veils in most Muslim countries? Why do they stay at home most of the time?
Why do they not leave the house without a male escort?
Are you back in your lily white NZ yet?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-homes-index-idUSKCN0V41PQ
That’s an interesting article from the standpoint of information in it being both positive and negative, yet the title is perfectly positive regarding economic resiliency.
The title should instead be, ‘A Glass Half Full vs. Half Empty’
Clearly no problems, anywhere!
Dear Finite Worlders
The adventures of Marjory Wildcraft in Tarahumara country in Mexico. In this episode, Marjory sees what a solar panel can do and learns a little about how to cook with corn. We also learn a little about the fallout from the hard times for the Mexican government.
In a previous episode, Marjory learns why the people make little distinction between the mafia and the government.
Recommended if you are thinking about how things might look post collapse.
Don Stewart
Link?
Gail
sorry for missing link
http://growyourowngroceries.org/elder-athletes-who-grow-their-own-food-the-tarahumara-indians-part-6/
Don Stewart
Thanks!
Found excerpts of late William Catton’s book OVERSHOOT (1980) (population has almost doubled since):
– chapter 2: The Tragic Story of Human Success:
http://www.ecoglobe.ch/overshoot/e/over-2.htm
– chapter 3: Dependance on Phantom Carrying Capacity
http://billtotten.blogspot.fr/2005/03/dependence-on-phantom-carrying.html
– excerpt: Industrialization: Prelude to Collapse
http://dieoff.org/page15.htm
– chapter 11: Faith versus Fact
http://www.ecoglobe.ch/overshoot/e/over-11.htm
I was thinking about the “organic” and self-suffiency issue with Monsanto, GM, and Roundup chemicals. And concerning poultry its interesting that almost everybody in Finland buy an “industrial starch” to their poultry feed mix, that consists of soy from Brazil and soy etc. oils from Argentina.
Our little foodfactory produces this mix, providing the necessary oils and proteins to the poultry feed mix. But when international trade crumbles I expect there to be a lot of chicken on the menu the first year, because there wont be enough of poultry feed (the oils and protein) in domestic storages.
And BTW if you are eating chicken or eggs, its highly likely that you are eating Monsanto, GM and Roundup..
You live in Finland? You are right. Our farms are currently dependant from protein export, but there is goverment drive to localize it and use ox beans instead. Also the leading bureucrates were last year in Helsingin Sanomat- newspaper calling for localization of food systems, like Sweden is aiming to do. However I don`t know if it is cos of our fear of Russia gone wild or if they have fears of Collapse.
As with any nation overburdened with bureaucrats, there are many factions, there are the ones who remind everybody Finland should be 100% food self-sufficient. There are the ones who try and get as much of EU agri money as possible, there are the “green” officials concerned about the environmental impact. There are the geopolitics group that try not to rely on Russia in any way. And then there is PM Sipilä (he´s family) who just uses logic, engineering logic, to think of a rational choice in a cacophony of bureaucrat factions.
But collapse, nope, not in the vocabulary as far as I´m aware of.
Sweden is not aiming to localize any food system. Sweden is abolishing food production. Farmers are quitting fast now. The reasons: high taxation, lots of regulations and less subsidies compared to continental european farmers. Ok, the politicians may claim they are aiming for localizing food production. But that’s only words.
The advantage with Sweden, Denmark (and Finland I think) is high yields on cereal farming. Soybeans can be replaced with cereals. The growth of the chickens gets slower.
Christopher, vad tycker du om Brännströms; krig inom två år? http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/mikael-holmstrom-armechefen-talar-klarsprak/
A Swedish general is saying the swedes can be in open war in two years time..
War with Russia? To me Russia seems calm with no expressionistic plans.
Yep, the best joke this time around will be on continental Europe as Russians had to deal with wave after wave of intrusions and are simply fed up (.., crusaders, Napoleon, Crimea/Brits, WWI, WWII, coldwar-afghan, Ukraine coup,..). And if they wanted something special they will buy it in cooperation via Asians, e.g. their car industry overhaul helped by Nissan-Renault or various ad hoc industrial projects with Germany. In essence in the next escapades Europe will be left to its own defenses, which in fact they are not there at all, as we can witness the impotency to guard borders, and much worse is yet to come. The Scandinavia would only benefit longterm from the fall of Europe, standing on its own.
Putler was yesterday in speech strongly regretting that Lenin made it possible due constitution that Soviet States could leave the Union, also he condemned that Eastern Ukraine was given to Ukraine (area now under Russian occupation). Same Lenin allowed Finland to get independent. He also pointed out that he has never given away his party book of Communist Party and is still symphatic to it. Knowing that Russia is waging information war in Europe, what intencified last fall and knowing that nationalistic forces inside Russia has long dreamed and propagated return to Soviet Union borders or Tsarist Russia. According to the Russian military doctorine it can go to war to protect russians in other countries. One german new magazine was writing that russians in Berlin were demostrating in masse due allenged raping of russian-german girl by “refugee”, which the police says has not happened. It is easy to see how Russia might “intervene” lets say to Finland and Europe in general. First they send enough of their own refugees (read unemployed Middle Asians etc) over border, then they start to claim that russian immigrants are being raped in masses, under threat etc. Then some traitorous countymen, who are already well know in bouth countries due their long standing progapanda and misinformation are asking Russia to intervene and bingo.
I can see you get your news strictly from the MSM…..
Putler?
You are aware that it was the US and the west that destroy Iraq, Libya and Syria — causing the exodus of refugees into Europe…..
Or do I have that narrative wrong? Was Putler behind all of this?
I don’t really know much about this. But my guess is that it’s been exaggerated by the journalists.
I expect Finland to be the first line of defense against russia, as usual… If the russia now starts being a trouble, which I don’t expect.
Finland the first line of defence of the swedes, as usual. Well put.
Damn, I hope not, the Armor-Piercing Infantry Light Arm System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APILAS gives such a bang, that ears are ringing for a while, even with your basic hearing protection on. Shooting Russian tanks is a rather tinnitus prone activity, even to the platoon leader.
It appears no country in Europe is able to defend itself nor even interested in defending it self. I see no reason for any of the three (China, Russia, U.S.) to rush to help Europe. Europe can not fuel itself, it can not feed itself. It does not look good for native Europeans.
Wanted to reply to Fast Eddy directly, but did not get how. Yep, I highly doubt that an english speaking dude from NZ knows a a heck of a deal what has been and is happening in Russia at the moment. I come from a family of refugees, from whom Stalin so nicely liberated all the farms along a huge chunck of land mass. My Estonian contacts warned already in early 2000 that Russia is turning to authoritan undemocratic goverment, what will again threat us. I have no illusions on what other huge powers are doing. I was demostrating along hundreds of thousands other against the Second Gulf War and yes Iraq and Libya got fucked up by west and later Iraquees fucked things up more by choosing a religious strife over secular democracy. In Syria case you are just plain wrong, it was the Assad himself who got the Syria to civil war, instead of stepping down. Howerver I do not blame him alone as the Sunnis would othervice probably exterminated the Alavites, like was near to happen in his father time.
You might want to update your understanding of what is happening in Syria….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-23/secret-pentagon-report-reveals-us-created-isis-tool-overthrow-syrias-president-assad
http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-created-al-qaeda-and-the-isis-terror-group/5402881
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq
As for your boy Putler…. (if I ever get another dog I may name him that… it has a nice ring)…
My understanding of that situation is that the US has been attempting to get rid of him for quite some time — no doubt because the Elders do not like that because:
a) he has huge resources which should be stolen by putting in a puppet idiot who would sell out his country
and
b) because he and Mr Jinping are throwing the petrodollar under the bus and cashing out their US treasury holdings…
Essentially they have both said fuck you Elders….. we think we can take you down….
Now don’t confuse my attempt to bring clarity to the situation with siding with Putler and China on this …. I know who fills my glass of wine a few moments ago…. I know who made possible my recent fabulous Eastern European Vacation …
The Elders. Not Putler or China. It was my good masters The Elders.
If the Elders determine we need to smash these buggers I am all for it.
But it does not mean I am an unthinking block of stone…. I am curious …. I seek to understand what is really going on ….
I reject the MSM therefore I am.
Fast Eddy says he’d like to live to 78.
Strikes me we’re all around that age now. We’re all going to be gone soon.
I’ve been thinking of Gail’s injunction to investigate how to be full of the spirit of life (life ‘spirit’uality). I’ve found, after a lifetime revelling in uplifting moral philosophy of life, that the work of Don Cupitt (Life Fellow of Emmanuel College, Cambridge) since around 1998 (about a dozen books) gives us the most practical advice.
How about doing this practice which I promoted when I was professor of philosophy at Shenzhen University. Looking back on a full life (our life so far whatever age but let’s say about 78) we can do the following practice called the STOP-SLOW.
Stop and Smile
Take a while, Take a breath yes breath out now (try to count to at least 30 while you breathe out)
Open our eyes, Open our ears,
Pause and name a wonderful thing (try to say name of the wonderful thing out loud)
Slowly Smile
Lighten a while, Lighten our eyes and our ears now
Lighten our hearts, Lighten our minds
Wait for a wonderful thing
(One can sing the above to the tune of Edelweiss from Sound of music.)
Guy Mcpherson says: be with, really be with, the ones you are with.
Don Cupitt (esp. “Revelation of Being” says: live magnanimously.
As Jimmy Buffett once wrote in one of his songs about a persons life: “In a hundred years this all won’t matter”. In other words whether you are a billionaire or a homeless person, believe in climate change or don’t believe in climate change, whether you believe in TEOTWAWKI or don’t.
In a hundred years there’s a VERY HIGH probability you won’t make it to 100 years. The Planet will continue to rotate, the birds will sing and chirp but you will be replaced by some other person meeting the same fate.
I don’t worry about what the future brings.
Thanks!
One older woman I know is my Facebook friend. She often has things on her site about appreciating every day you have with your grandchildren (or something similar). She was widowed a couple of years ago, and I believe a previous husband died as well.
We may not have grandchildren, but the idea is the same. We need to get as much as we can out of the time we have available now.
As much as we can could mean a lot of different things to different people.
I get a LOT out of sitting still, eyes closed, for 20 minutes a day. Every night, I check to see what the stars and the moon are doing. Simple things around the house done with gratitude goes a long way.
When you look at the math involved surrounding our existence, you realise that we are all winners of the imposible universal lottery many times over. Every breath we take here in this place is precious and unique. Not enough people stop to think about that in their “busy” or “boring” lives. They desperately need to dive within. Inside every one of us lies a deep ocean of bliss and expanded awareness that is unwavering. On the surface, all is hustle and bustle, non-stop activity, but those anchored in bliss conciousness ride the waves with ease.
I wish I could say with certainty that our individual conciousness forms part of a larger whole. Personal experience of millions of meditators would lead to that conclusion, but of course, none of them can actually prove it… 😉
Good advice.
Shenzhen — that must have been interesting…
Hi,
I just posted a topic concerning peak oil on this forum:
http://forum.socialmatter.net/discussion/96/peak-oil#latest
I got this reply:
“I fell for peak oil back in the 2010-11 time frame. Unfortunately I fell for it for the same reason that the Left finds Anthropocentric Global Warming compelling. It’s a cool story. And it hoists modernity by it’s own petard. What’s not to like.
However, I now find it quite implausible. Resources are always profitable to extract if demand for them is high enough. The theory seems to work in the spherical cows in a vacuum sense. If EROI ever goes less than one, then it won’t get extracted. Checkmate. Well A) it will if enough dollars (or %GDP) chase it; and B) this completely ignores improved technology. If there’s money to be made extracting a resource, someone is gonna make money extracting that resource. Personally, I think fossil fuels will continue to fuel the world until “something else” comes along, which makes them obsolete. Like what happened to whale oil.”
—————————————————————————————————
What is the best way to answer this, specifically if the oil price is high enough nonsense? this socialmatter forumi think is one of the best ones out there, loads of smart people. It would be great if someone here ould give me a good pointer on what to post as a reply. I am Norwegian so English is not my mother tongue, therefore it is not always so easily to post this complex ideas regarding oil succinctly. anyone help?
In answer to A) we live in an energy based economy, not a money one. You can subsist without money, but not energy. When the energy needed to keep modern life going goes into reverse, so will the monetary system and modernity.
As for B) ask him to imagine himself sealed in a cardboard box (represents the finite earth) with some small punched through it to let in light (representing the daily solar allowance that falls to the earth) with only a million dollars in his pocket and a solar-powered toaster oven (representing money and technology), but nothing else. Now ask him to conjure up a ham sandwich by stuffing the million dollars into his solar-powered toaster oven… 😀
PHD.
LOL! Brilliant!
The peak oil story, the way it is told, is basically wrong. There is no possibility of ever-rising prices, and an economy that continues, even as oil production collapses. Hubbert put up his chart (repeated many times in different articles), in which another cheap form of energy took over first, before oil and fossil fuels declined. No one stopped to realize that this condition is absolutely essential, to get the scenario peak oilers talk about–the economy holding together, as production declines.
Unfortunately, what we are reaching is collapse, just as many civilizations before us have reached collapse. This happens when the return on human labor drops too low. (Too many out of work or with very low wages.) We almost reached this point in the 1930s in the Depression. This time is likely to be worse.
The story is confusing because there are so many wrong stories about what is ahead. Peak oilers believed that we had a unique situation, but really we didn’t. Falling resources/population is always a problem. It leads to low wages, and people without jobs. We are reaching falling resources / population a little different way than civilizations did in the past. (Oil/person instead of just arable land/person) We have put together an imaginary way of how the situation will be fixed, with high prices and rising “demand.” People don’t buy goods that they can’t afford, however. Thus, people don’t realize that “growing demand” is equivalent to “workers now being able to afford homes and cars that they couldn’t in the past.” It is a story, that is all. Hubbert was either wrong or misunderstood.
So try to explain to people that demand is equivalent to being affordable. And it isn’t so much the problem of being able to buy a gallon of gasoline. It is about being able to afford a house and car.
“What is the best way to answer this, specifically if the oil price is high enough nonsense?”
I think first to define what Peak Theory is. “The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing (any non-renewable resource) region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve.” – from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory
Maybe refer directly to Hubbert’s paper, since it starts off with the fundamental assumption that you must find the non-renewable resource before you can extract it.
The exploration curve leads the production curve – in the case of oil, by about 40 years.
The first big hurdle is misunderstandings of what Peak Oil is, that it has something to do with running out of oil. The Peak of a mountain is the top, not the bottom.
Unfortunately, Hubbert’s theory depends on having some other cheap fuel source in place. (See my other comment with a chart.) Without the other fuel source in place, we get financial collapse, and that takes place a lot more quickly than the downslope of a Hubbert Curve.
One issue–oil can be defined in many different ways. The amount of oil changes a lot, it a person changes the definition of what is in. There is a moderate amount of substitutability as well. In fact, it is easier to add “oil” than it is to add “demand” at high prices. That is why we get a glut of oil. The extraction is coming from resources not originally considered oil-producing.
The issue is a financial one–something Hubbert never thought about. He (or perhaps it was his followers) came up with a theory of how things work together. It has quite a few holes in it, IMO. He did get the idea right about oil supply being limited. The real issue, though, is that oil (and substitutes for oil) are always getting higher-priced to extract, which means less affordable. The lack of affordability can be covered up with debt for a while. It is the rising debt problems that ultimately push the system under.
“The issue is a financial one–something Hubbert never thought about. ”
That is the thing, the conversation can go in so many ways, and become overly complicated really quickly. I simply want to demonstrate that Peak Theory is simply an observation on the extraction of nonrenewable resources. Unless someone can demonstrate that new sources of a given nonrenewable resource can be discovered at an ever-increasing rate, they cannot disprove the theory.
thanks a lot guys! 🙂
Often I feel this kind of debates get overly complicated, it is nice when i can have it summarized this way.
The part of the theory that makes no sense is, “Prices will rise, and business will go on much as before, except we need to use energy products more sparingly.” I am not sure who came up with this idea (Hubbert or someone later), but it seems to underlie a lot of sustainability thinking.
You people are panicked for no reason. I have no worries about this collapse. None. The collapse is corrective. The system is totally out of control, and we are about to be pummeled. I look forward to it, with joy.
Let me gently remind everybody here what is coming. Population will peak. Industry will decline. The interesting creatures of this earth will make a comeback. Trillions in phantom wealth will evaporate. American empire will dissolve. Celebrate all of these things!
If some have to suffer in order for those at the top to be reminded that they are humans just like the rest of us, and no amount of money or power will change that, so be it.
If any of you fears the masses, just remember, you are the masses. Otherwise you wouldn’t spend a single second posting your thoughts here.
I think you are saying makes no sense, unless what is really happening is sort of religious “end of the earth” that is approaching. I wouldn’t rule this out. I don’t see those at the top particularly learning any lessons from this. They will just see a financial collapse, pure and simple.
“The interesting creatures of this earth will make a comeback. ”
Which creatures, and how? Do you think starving people will spare wild animals, or are you anticipating depopulation of humans without chaos and starvation?
This is the most severe case of Cognitive Dissonance I have seen in over 4 decades of observation…
I am surprised you are able to carry out even the simplest of daily tasks in light of your condition.
Quite impressive actually …. yes… most impressive….
Would you mind signing this form donating your mind to the Fast Eddy CG Laboratory when you die….
China moves to aquire Ecauadorian oil in a massive land grab. It got firm crasp of Ecuadorian balls by holding 7billion loans. Resource Colonialism in Grand Scale.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ecuador-selling-its-rainforest-to-china-2013-3
Oh, but surely some mistake here: the Chinese don’t do Colonialism, but only ‘Co-operative, Non-Exploitative Development’ as they like to say. 🙂
I can’t feel terribly sorry for Ecuador. Ecuador used fraud to try to extort money from Chevron.
I suspect those who have used fraud in the past won’t suffer from that deal, maybe even get some advantage.
Unlike the Ecuadorian people and their rainforest.
Good point. It was the folks in charge in Ecuador who thought that they could extort funds from Chevron to pay for damage that Ecuador’s own oil company had done (and more).
peak oil? how about peak copper! this is an info graphic not to be missed WOW!!! I knew things were bad but this sheds a whole new light on things.
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-looming-copper-supply-crunch/
Very nice graphic! I did not realize so much copper was is used in wind turbines and electric cars. Scaling these up is a non-solution.
Like a subtle stake into the the solar crowd’s heart is that comment…..
here’s an interesting tidbit that raises questions about currencies?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-flow-of-oil-around-the-world/
Sell, Sell,Sell…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-25/trader-who-made-6-200-on-china-futures-says-go-short-or-get-out
Huang Weimin, the hedge fund manager whose Chinese stock-index futures wagers returned more than 6,200 percent last year, has some advice for investors in 2016: Sell your shares now, before it’s too late.
“It’s like surfing,” said Huang, who became a full-time investor in 2006 after quitting his job at a state-owned company. “You have to dance on top of the waves.”
And
China’s stocks fell to the lowest levels in 13 months amid concern capital outflows may accelerate as the economy slows and after some of the nation’s most-accurate forecasters predicted further declines for equities.
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.1 percent to 2,877.11 at the break, heading for the lowest close since Dec. 9, 2014 as turnover shrank. Energy producers and technology companies led declines. PetroChina Co. and coal producers slumped after oil prices slid below $30 a barrel. Hundsun Technologies Inc. slumped more than 4 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-s-stocks-fall-amid-concern-capital-outflows-may-accelerate
Massive sell off
Shanghai stocks slumped more than six percent by the close on Tuesday, ending a two-day rally, on “panic selling” driven by worries over China’s slowing economy and weaker global growth.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 6.42 percent, or 188.72 points, to 2,749.79 on turnover of 212.6 billion yuan ($32.4 billion).
The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, plunged 7.12 percent, or 131.36 points, to 1,714.42 on turnover of 310.5 billion yuan.
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-shares-down-more-5-afternoon-trade-063828884.html
This is a problem, all over the world. Saudi Arabia is not doing well either, I understand. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/stock-market
“Or, as summed up by the economic commentator Steven Landsburg: “Modern humans first emerged about 100,000 years ago. For the next 99,800 years or so, nothing happened. Well, not quite nothing. There were wars, political intrigue, the invention of agriculture—but none of that stuff had much effect on the quality of people’s lives. Almost everyone lived on the modern equivalent of $400 to $600 a year, just above the subsistence level… Then—just a couple of hundred years ago—people started getting richer. And richer and richer still.” The designation of a “special century” applies only to the US, which has carved out the technological frontier for developed nations since the Civil War. However, other countries have also made stupendous progress.”
That was copied from the automatic earth’s current article and pasted above. Equivalent of 400-600 dollars a year?! Does that mean post peak oil era we will go back to that type of equivalency? That’s gonna be rough.
If we are lucky, we will go back to the equivalent of $400-$600 year. The loss of human population means that the vast majority of the population doesn’t get enough to meet basic needs.
Remember musical chairs – the kids game where one chair is removed and every time the music stops… one of the kids is left out.
It’s like a controlled, steady release of pressure from a valve.
Something tells me that in our global game of “musical chairs”, the chairs are going to be toppled all at once…
Lots of crying kids.
Seriously, even if a large percentage of first world inhabitants were able to physically survive this decline and final collapse, not many would cope with the psychological aspect of rapid “downsizing”.
Some here often quote the 7.5B population figure as if all of these individuals are on the same playing field and are all falling from the same altitude. Quite obviously, this is not the case. Many in the world are still subsistence farmers living without electricity and earning less than a few dollars a day. People in industrialised nations are the ones that are going to suffer the most psychological shock and depression as their world falls apart.
I would recommend taking up meditation and other such practices to help maintain sanity in what could be very stressful times. We all need to become buddhist monks and zen masters. Those who appreciate the simple things in life will be better off for longer. It’s called getting your house in order for a reason.
Abilify can relieve the stress…. so best to stock up now because it won’t be available post BAU — imagine having withdrawal symptoms and having to face reality — just as the SHTF….
Absolutely! Abilify for all! Production of Abilify should be ramped up to meet the coming surge in demand. Grab as much as you can before the lights go out. Why live the horror of abject poverty like your neighbour, put a smile on your face as the world burns!
And when that runs out hit the whiskey. I still think a bit of hemp growing – for all the budding horticulturalists – will go a long way to plugging some of the gaps in your stress-management/survival protocols, if you know what I mean.
Abilify and other such products are great if you can get your hands on enough of the stuff but the reason I mention alternatives is because once the techniques are learned, they are free and stay with you for life – even though life may turn out to a little shorter than expected.
Ah — I forgot to include party gear in the barge budget….
I reckon 20k for booze ….. how much do you reckon a solar powered disco ball might cost?
Gotta have one of them…..
Here you go…
http://www.amazon.com/Kikkerland-1592-Solar-Disco-Ball/product-reviews/B001A04PYG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaUAwdjPMvA
Now you’re all set for the zombie appocalypse!
Very very cool! I am pulling out the credit card now….
What better way to be eco-friendly than to purchase a solar powered disco ball?
“China Warns “Social Stability Threatened” As 400,000 Steel Workers Are About To Lose Their Jobs”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-25/china-warns-social-stability-threatened-400000-steel-workers-are-about-lose-their-jo
The beast bleeds…
Unfortunately, I can believe that social stability will be threatened. Somehow, these jobs have to come to an end. The question is when.
The thing is…
The people of China tolerate the corruption and the Princelings and all the rest ….. only if the Party delivers prosperity…. (i.e. jobs)
Dear Finite Worlders
This will be a note about Fast Eddy’s problems with perennial weeds. I will try to offer some helpful hints, but won’t claim to have had a distinguished career eliminating noxious perennial weeds.
I believe the first step must be to identify some model which represents what you would like your farm or garden to look like in 5 or 10 years. I would probably pick Singing Frogs Farm, because they have a highly productive farm where almost all of the work is actually about producing food, rather than fighting with nature, has lots of carbon in the soil which makes everything work better, and they have a diversified landscape which assists in managing pests and promotes biodiversity. Other people might like Colin Seis’ pastures in Australia, or Joel Salatin’s diversified farm in Virginia. Whatever one selects, it’s important to have a pretty good idea what you are aiming at…because you are about to spend some money and time and work building infrastructure to achieve your goal.
For example, at Singing Frogs, their microbe index is about 12,000, while 2,000 is considered ‘good’, and most farms are simply miserable. The carbon content of the soil at Singing Frogs is around 10 percent now, if I remember correctly, while many, many farms are less than 1 percent. Consequently, Singing Frogs can store an awful lot of water in the soil. Rain infiltration at Singing Frogs is very high, which indicates that the soil is not compacted. So if one wants to have lots of microbes and have lots of carbon and water storage capacity in un-compacted soil, then it becomes a question of doing the things which will let you achieve those goals. I believe it is important to begin with these fundamentals, because once the fundamentals are in place, the rest of the job gets a lot easier.
The second step is to assess the land as it exists today. A soil test from Soil Food Web, Inc. will tell you what you need to know about your microbes and your soil carbon levels. A penetrometer will let you measure compaction and a soil corer will let you pull cores to visually examine your soil and perhaps get some of the deeper cores tested as well as the shallow cores normally tested. If you want deep roots, you have to have un-compacted soil which is accumulating carbon. Infiltration tests are easily done, and can be found described on the internet.
In my limited experience, there are two show stoppers: compaction and lack of organic matter. If you have these two conditions, no amount of fiddling around with surface matters and cosmetics and chemicals will help you achieve your goals. Most of the small farms in my neighborhood have not addressed these two issues, and consequently have to work really hard fighting with nature. The best farm I know of in my neighborhood is a grass fed beef farm, which is simply beautiful.
Beyond the show stoppers, there are many potential impediments. Here is a partial list:
*Collapsed clay….you can tell this from a soil core
*Poor drainage…an infiltration test will show you
*Sub-optimal landform…maybe you need to make some swales to infiltrate water, or use a key-line system. Maybe you need to build a pond.
*Low microbial population and diversity…you will need to inoculate with compost and provide food for the microbes. And don’t kill them with tillage or synthetic fertilizers or poisons.
*Salts or heavy metals…remediation with selected cover crops and compost is probably necessary
*Perennial weeds…unless you are growing plants which can shade out the perennials, you have to do something mechanical or chemical
*Ignorance…if you really don’t know what you are doing, life will be hard work and frustrating
*Collapsism…if you are have romantic notions about performing large scale remediation without fossil fuels, good luck! Or, if you despise those who have already accomplished remediation (e.g., Singing Frogs, Colin Seis, Joel Salatin) then you are probably going to make avoidable problems into major stumbling blocks.
*Arrogance…setting up straw men who supposedly sing Kumbaya a lot, or fail to conform to your own prejudices about equipment, will prevent you from stealing good ideas when you see them. If Scott Nearing solved a problem 85 years ago…steal the idea.
Specifically relative to Round-Up and tillage. Very frequently remediation may work best with a single dose of Round-Up or tillage. The point is that it is a single dose…not something you do repeatedly. If you do them repeatedly, you will never look like Singing Frogs Farm or Joel Salatin’s farm or Colin Seis’ farm. The analogy I would make is to the use of antibiotics in medicine. Antibiotics are sometimes necessary, but the first thing you have to do after the antibiotics is restore your micro-biome. So pro-biotics plus a diet high in fiber is essential. In extreme cases, it may be necessary to do a fecal transplant, so that a healthy microbiome is transplanted into your own colon. This has nothing to do with religion or ‘organic’ certification. It is all extremely practical…dealing with the reality in front of your nose.
If I lived in New Zealand, had noxious perennials to deal with, and was a little unsure about what I had and exactly what to do to get to where I wanted to go, I would contact Soil Food Web New Zealand and arrange for a soil test. I would also do my thing with a penetrometer and a soil corer and digging some infiltration holes. Depending on what I found out, I might arrange for a consultation with Soil Food Web (assuming I had some money to spend on the project). Or I would find a New Zealand farm which embodies what I want my place to look like and ask them what they did and who they partnered with.
Don Stewart
Don, what a thoughtful, deep, extended helpful hand you extended to Fast Eddy. I hope others in his situation are here to tune in your systematic process to deal with that vexing situation. Afraid our Fast Eddy will likely not do so and just detest such an approach.
First, Fast Eddy has a hostility to what he calls granola cruncher/Koombayers. Also, his conditioned perception of time has been formed in what was phrased as “Instant gratification is not fast enough”, along with working with ones hands in dirt is a something that is done not by white cheeks. He will continue to fan the flames here and it is rather funny, in a sad way. He has an issue to the predicament we face and projects “It shouldn’t be happening to me”.
A lot can be explained by examining the works of Jeremy Rifkin’s books, such as, “Algeny” and “Time Wars”. If it wasn’t those tuff weeds, Fast Eddy would find something else to whine about regarding the post BAU world he is most unhappily placing his family in.
When he boasted about burning as much fossil fuels to exacerbate global warming that is a big red flag of a desire for self destruction. Be careful, he probably will get his wish.
Don. It’s always a pleasure to read your posts. Although I’m a FE kind of person – i.e., full of pessimist contempt for our wretched insane species, and convinced that we have no time nor spirit for the kind of transition you wisely put forward – I always loved your positive outlook, and your knowledgeable and well argued comments. Thanks!
Thanks for this Don.
I had the soil lab tested before buying — and I had a comprehensive plan made by very experienced consultant — the guy I am using has both ivory tower experience (he has relevant degrees and he has been engaged by the NZ government on quite a number of research projects related to farming) — he has also operated a certified commercial organic farm here (not one of the spray free things that all these other ‘organic’ farmers are operating)
In short I doubt it would be possible to find anyone more qualified to assist with setting up a permaculture operation.
I don’t mean to dwell on the noxious weed issue — I bring it up only because I would like to point out that setting up a little farm like I have is pretty much futile in terms of staying alive post BAU….. the weeds are only one of a thousand problems that will show up when BAU is gone…
Most people are a dream world and fail to see these problems — I on the other hand am being realistic… the purpose of posting this stuff is to let those who may be considering my path know that it is almost certain to fail — rather than waste time and money and get stressed out — perhaps they might use this knowledge and decide to spend their last months doing something better than digging out weeds….
You speak of two game stoppers only —- I could list dozens…. let’s look at a few:
Water: crops need water. Few locations have sufficient rain so as not to require irrigation. Most farms are irrigated using electric pumps – hoses — etc… none of these will be available post BAU. Where will your irrigation water come from? Buckets from a stream? Buckets don’t last — so where will buckets come from?
Weeds — in the past weeds were plowed under. Does anyone have a plow and harness that can be pulled by a man or by a horse?
Seeds – most seeds will not germinate – you need to buy new seeds every year. That won’t be possible going forward
Composting — it is very difficult to make enough compost for a large garden from what you have on site — most farms truck in inputs. They also use machinery to make it.
Tools — they break. No Wally’s World.
Security — what will you do when the hordes are at the gate? What will you do when you see starving children at the gate? What will you do if your brothers and sisters and cousins and other family members show up at the gate?
Even if you can overcome all the huge obstacles to self-sufficiency —- you will be one amongst millions….. do you think you will be left in peace to enjoy your salad?
The farming option is futile. I do it because it makes my wife happy — it keeps me in shape — and it makes me feel as if I am at least trying. But I recognize the complete futility of it – more and more each day…..
“what will you do when the hordes are at the gate? ”
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA(dr evil laugh)
“What will you do when you see starving children at the gate? ”
They get fed if I got it. They get shelter if I got it. This is nonnegotiable. Smart? No. There are worse things than death.
“What will you do if your brothers and sisters and cousins and other family members show up at the gate? ”
They know the score. Ive told them to their face while looking them straight in their eyes. Ass grass or gas nobody rides for free.
How big is your farm and how many people do you reckon you could feed?
How many people live within a tank of gas of where you are?
How many people within a 30 minute walk of you are completely self-sufficient are most definitely will not look to you when the SHFT?
Let’s assume you are not Jesus and cannot feed thousands with a single loaf of bread….
What happens when you start to turn people away — and they just decide to jump the fence and take …
Will you open fire? Will you gun down women and children?
What do you do when the violent types show up with guns?
I noticed a gang of Mongrel Mob scum riding about in our small town recently.
Rather mean looking fellows.
And I was wondering what I would do if they decided the meth business was no longer viable and decided organic farms are a better bet…..
I was wondering what would happen if they rumbled up our driveway and pulled up to the front door on their last tanks of gas…. no cops… no phones…
You talk big.
I find that people who talk like that are generally stupid or ignorant….. and they are pretty much always cowards.
“You talk big.
I find that people who talk like that are generally stupid or ignorant….. and they are pretty much always cowards.”
I can only do my best Paul. Intersting that I am accused of being a coward by a rich brat who advocates curling up in a ball . Intersting that I am being accused of being a coward by a man who has expressed his intent to murder his entire family when times get tough.
Not when times get tough — when we are starving to death and suffering. There is a difference….
Or when I have stuck the two hunting knives I have in my desk drawer into enough brutes — and yet they keep coming — wanting to yoke me and have their way with the women of this house —
Perhaps I will do a Duran and say ‘no mas’ and run the ute into a rock cut…
Or perhaps when we are all sickened by radiation poisoning – our hair falls out — we are vomiting…. and dying…..
Ya — I would have the courage to end it.
Of course in Koombaya land the worst thing that you can envision is that your granola cereal has a trace of Round Up in it….. tough times indeed….
Show some courage — take the Fast Eddy Challenge…
Tell you what — you get to turn on the power once per day and report back on how things are going……
You are definitely right. A life without BAU requires a lot. Most of us have been schooled in the wrong way. Almost all of my schooling for instance was wasted without BAU. I’ve at least had this little hobby to try to figure out how to get along without BAU.If BAU goes this hobby will prove more important than everything I ever learnt in school and university. But maybe it will not be enough.
I’ll give my answer to some of your problems. Maybe they could be of some help.
“Composting — it is very difficult to make enough compost for a large garden from what you have on site — most farms truck in inputs. They also use machinery to make it.”
The best composting machines you can get are grazing animals. Preferably cattle of the smaller land races. Dung used to be highly valued. Of course you also need to get a schyte to make hay. Ok, I know you will say that the zombies will slaughter and eat your cattle after the collapse. Without cattle or sheep many things will be more difficult if you want to be a self sufficient farmer. Maybe it’s worth to try the luck against the zombies?
“Tools — they break. No Wally’s World.”
Some metal working skills are necessary. Get those skills yourself or convince a friend to get it.
“Water: crops need water. Few locations have sufficient rain so as not to require irrigation. Most farms are irrigated using electric pumps – hoses — etc… none of these will be available post BAU. Where will your irrigation water come from? Buckets from a stream? Buckets don’t last — so where will buckets come from”
There are many different crops. Some need less water. If water is a problem I’ve read that garbanzo beans are useful. They are popular in the middle east. Doesn’t potatoes work well without irrigation? You can live well on potatoes and some milk. The danes tried that out during WW1:
https://www.drmcdougall.com/misc/2012nl/jul/lessons.htm
“Seeds – most seeds will not germinate – you need to buy new seeds every year. That won’t be possible going forward”
This is the smallest of your problems. You will have to save some of your plants to give new seeds. You can’t eat them all.
“Weeds — in the past weeds were plowed under. Does anyone have a plow and harness that can be pulled by a man or by a horse?”
Sowing with alfalfa/red clover and grazing the field makes life really hard for the weeds. They can’t compete with alfalfa or red clover when frequently grazed and trampled. Alfalfa and red clover cover declines after some years. That’s the time to sow something else. If you don’t have a plough use an ard:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ard_(plough)
They are much easier to make than a plough. In some soils it may even be better to use an ard than a plough. Of course you use your cattle to drag your ard. Oxen or cows. They are stronger and much cheaper than horses. You have to figure out how to train your cows or oxen. Oxens and ards were used until the 20th century. A horse is mostly a prestige thing, it’s like an expensive car.
Maybe you can even make a no-till method to work out. To me they seem to rely on spraying. But since you have a stockpile of roundup, that could work out.
“Security — what will you do when the hordes are at the gate? What will you do when you see starving children at the gate? What will you do if your brothers and sisters and cousins and other family members show up at the gate?”
This is much about having luck. If the collapse is fast as you portray it, my guess is that the key is to get along the first month or so. Without electricity and constant service of the sewer system many sources of fresh water will quickly be polluted by excrements. This used to be huge problem in many places of europe up until around 150 years ago. People were in fact drinking mostly beer because the water was not reliable. Bacteria contaminated water and famine will quickly reduce the population.
Yup, fresh pure drinking water will be a major problem very early on. Most people don´t know how to make your basic activated charcoal, or a water filter from that, or to produce a disinfectant cloth to be used with the water filter. So, yup, massive amounts of pathoges in contaminated water supplies near the big cities is to be expected.
My guess is that the pathogens can spread quite vast. Also areas away from the bigger cities will have problems with contaminated water. This used to be a problem also at the countryside. Of course less so than around the bigger cities.
Water – some crops need less water — but living on beans and potatoes – forever? Give me death….
Compost – yes – hungry people will eat the animals — that is what happened in Ireland during the famine…. this time there are millions of guns in places like America….
Seeds — as I have pointed out – the vast majority of seeds that are sold will not germinate if you try to save them from plants and resow — my neighbour was bemoaning that fact the other day — he said literally 90% of the time they will not grow….
Weeds — remember this — weeds are kept under control at present because most people spray — when the spraying stops the weeds will visit with a vengeance…..
Tools – can you make an axe – a shovel?
Security — again I point to Ireland — there was a huge problem with food theft — keep in mind the police were still in play during the famine — also the entire country was an organic farm — this time around there are very few farms that will produce food — and 7.5 billion people
You are massively underestimating this — do you think those billions – before they die off — are not going to see these organic oases as obvious targets?
To think that you will be left alone is extremely naive — what about neighbours – do you not think they will be begging at your door?
Finally — as I asked earlier — what do you do when your family shows up?
Not only brothers and sisters and their entire families — but what do you think cousins Joe and Sue and Jane and Richard and……. are faced with empty shops ….. they’ll quickly remember Uncle Chris…. that crazy guy who stores canned food and rice and beans — and has that big veg patch out back…
Let’s pile in the car kids and head for Uncle Chris’ farm – he’ll help us out….
Best case scenario you are dragging an ard around the paddock trying to kill weeds…. you are struggling to make compost …. you are malnourished…. you are able to get some of the vegetables out of the field before they are overrun and raided…. you are eating beans and potatoes …. you have no electricity — you spend half your day chopping and splitting trees…. your tools are wearing out …. and worst of all — you are not used to living without the comforts of BAU — you are soft — maybe you are old ….
You will quickly realize that this is not what you expected … it is not Scott Nearing’s Good Life at all — The Good Life means being plugged into BAU — having a hardware store with nails and hammers and shovels and replacement parts — and roads to get there…. and doctors and medicine…. and chain saws and petrol …. and a grocery store to supplement the food you grow (or a garden to supplement store bought food…) …. and electricity for lights and heat and a washing machine….. the list is endless.
Ya sure – someone could possibly survive under these conditions — but I am skeptical mainly because unless they are living VERY remote — they will be overrun at the get go ….
Here’s someone who has survived without BAU — keep in mind she was born into harsh conditions…. there is life — and then there is grinding misery…..
I don’t think I would have a problem with eating mostly beans and potatoes, especially if they were supplemented with a few greens and other vegetables, and if it was reasonably doable to produce the crops and store them (without too many other people wanting to take them from you).
“Water – some crops need less water — but living on beans and potatoes – forever? Give me death….”
I leave it as your homework to figure out some more crops. There most definetly are if you look around.
“Compost – yes – hungry people will eat the animals — that is what happened in Ireland during the famine…. this time there are millions of guns in places like America….”
Put your life and those of your cattle in the hands lady fortuna…
“Seeds — as I have pointed out – the vast majority of seeds that are sold will not germinate if you try to save them from plants and resow — my neighbour was bemoaning that fact the other day — he said literally 90% of the time they will not grow….”
You should change seed producer. Typically heirloom varieties should work well. The point with them is to simply get new seeds.
“Weeds — remember this — weeds are kept under control at present because most people spray — when the spraying stops the weeds will visit with a vengeance…..”
Get yourself several different hoes (from heavy to light), preferably with long handles so you don’t have to bend. At the end of the day you will win against the weeds. Particularly if you complement this with alfalfa and grazing.
Tools – can you make an axe – a shovel?
I cannot. But two friends are hobby blacksmiths. I intend to start practising.
“Security — again I point to Ireland — there was a huge problem with food theft — keep in mind the police were still in play during the famine — also the entire country was an organic farm — this time around there are very few farms that will produce food — and 7.5 billion people”
This is were you should be a dear friend of lady fortuna. If your collapse scenario turns out to be correct my guess is that the population decline will be quick. Urbanisation and the fact that most people are not conditioned for anything else than BAU will improve your chances. Most people will make stupid mistakes like drinking polluted water.
“Most people will make stupid mistakes like drinking polluted water.”
Cholera is not a super efficient killer. I don’t think it immobilizes people.
Symptoms of cholera infection may include:
Diarrhea. Cholera-related diarrhea comes on suddenly and may quickly cause dangerous fluid loss — as much as a quart (about 1 liter) an hour. Diarrhea due to cholera often has a pale, milky appearance that resembles water in which rice has been rinsed (rice-water stool).
Nausea and vomiting. Occurring especially in the early stages of cholera, vomiting may persist for hours at a time.
Dehydration. Dehydration can develop within hours after the onset of cholera symptoms. Depending on how many body fluids have been lost, dehydration can range from mild to severe. A loss of 10 percent or more of total body weight indicates severe dehydration.
Signs and symptoms of cholera dehydration include irritability, lethargy, sunken eyes, a dry mouth, extreme thirst, dry and shriveled skin that’s slow to bounce back when pinched into a fold, little or no urine output, low blood pressure, and an irregular heartbeat (arrhythmia).
Electrolyte imbalance
An electrolyte imbalance can lead to serious signs and symptoms such as:
Muscle cramps. These result from the rapid loss of salts such as sodium, chloride and potassium.
Shock. This is one of the most serious complications of dehydration. It occurs when low blood volume causes a drop in blood pressure and a drop in the amount of oxygen in your body. If untreated, severe hypovolemic shock can cause death in a matter of minutes.
http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/cholera/basics/symptoms/con-20031469
Not many people die from cholera these days — because there are hospitals…. and medicines and IV drips and antibiotics and other useful stuff that BAU makes available.
Things will be different post BAU….
THE FAST EDDY CHALLENGE
Why don’t you give all of this a dry run?
Like I have suggested — don’t use any machines – no petrol – no electricity – eat only what you produce from your property — heat and cooking from wood that you have chopped and split with an axe.
Since you think it is so easy then give this a go for a week.
Funny how the permaculture koombaya krowd talk the talk about how rough and tough they are — how they will persevere….
Yet every single one of you big talkers refuses to take the Fast Eddy Challenge.
Afraid you will find yourself lacking?
Afraid that the Challenge will expose how woefully prepared you are for what is coming your way?
Never said it was easy. Just wanted to share my thoughts concerning your problems.It’s not a panacea. Anyway, I think it’s great that you share your thoughts and problems here. Your comments are often interesting to read, eventhough you are a bit inclined towards drama.
I will report to you when I have started the fast eddy challenge…
Matthew,
“cholera is not a super efficient killer. I don’t think it immobilizes people.”
I was not talking about for instance cholera or dysentery. They are not very common anymore and will probably require more time to spread. They are lethal without good health care as fast eddy described. There are many intenstinal bacterias you should not swallow. They are not fatal but will cause something similar to food poisoning. If you ever had a decent food poisoning you will remember what it feels like. It can be decribed as rebooting your system or a heavy knock-out. In a crucial situation where you lack fresh water and food and you are looking for a safe place this will wear you down. That will be fatal to many people.
Fast Eddy,
I see your living in NZ?
It’s the land of my birth & where all my family still live. Are you in the North or South Island? My sister & bro in law grow flowers for export on 14 acres in the BOP & my parents live nearby. My sister has good soil & a near permanent river running on their property.
I sent them a copy of the DVD “What a way to go, life at the end of Empire” a few years ago & I was condemned for it…………………..I’ve never mentioned doomer things again.to them again as they have obviously planted their boundary stick in the sand as have I.
I moved to Australia when I was 20 some 27 years ago & now have 47 acres on the Western Downs, Queensland.
I would like to know your opinion & others here on the value of community?
I don’t mean the intentional community but those around you……..even the red neck zombies?
One thing I’ve found on the Western Downs, Qld is that although you might not agree with their ideals & their motivation in life they look out for each other. The same can’t be said for the closeted city folk.
Sometimes, I feel you have to talk BS, other times you can speak what you feel is the truth of the matter. There are times when they will help you out if they think you’ll help them out & I’ve experienced that over & over again & even if you can offer them nothing in return they still help. I lived in Tasmania for some time also & they are amazingly wonderful folk.
To me that’s community spirit at work.
Sadly however I write this on “Australia day” which is a public holiday where the zombies sit around having BBQ’s, drinking beer & slapping one another on the back about how amazing & magnificent the industrial culture is & few care about the plight of the first Australians who lived here for at least 40000 years. This culture won’t even be able to pull 300 years in this country.
That’s the power of indoctrination…………………………………………..
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/24/stan-grants-speech-on-racism-and-the-australian-dream-goes-viral
Anyway I always enjoy what’s written here, we are all well aware of the plight, the magnitude of the situation & the unfolding tragedy in our own unique ways………………………………..
https://industrialcivilizationacultofdeath.wordpress.com/
Kia ora…. from the north part of the south island…. sunniest part of NZ…
Will check that documentary — its on youtube – thanks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2em1x2j9-o
With respect to community obviously better to life among people who help one another and who have survival skills — most of our neighbours grow food — hunt, fish… know how to preserve food …. they are mostly older (60+) …. and we are tight knit — we take turns hosting drinks on a regular basis — we help each other — we pass around food….
However I don’t expect our strong community to matter much mainly because even though we live in a farming area — we will likely starve.
The commercial farms use urea – the soil is dead and nothing will grow in it when the urea stops.
Most people here grow some food – but I know of only two people who produce enough food to be self-sufficient. Both have commercial certified organic operations. They will be magnets for the starving….
The other issue I see is water — almost all people growing food irrigate using a hose and electric pumps… there will be no electricity…. their meager crops will wilt and die….. they will produce nothing…
There is also the issue of timing — if collapse happens in the winter — that compounds the food issue….
To my knowledge — I am the only one with a garage stuffed with food. Most people would not last a month on the food they have in their homes….
So I guess the end of world last meal party will be held at our place — I’ve got the party snacks and I’ve also stashed away a couple of cases of good single malt and quite a number of bottles of wine…..
Kia Ora to you too mate.
I was (as was my sister) born in Christchurch in the SI & my dad being a cop was posted up & down the country from Christchurch to Auckland & back again a few times..
My family live in the Bay of Plenty & get great weather.
I do feel you raise some interesting points.about community & I feel it all depends on ones perspective.
If this industrial nightmare goes down like a house of cards in a cyclone then we as a species will have little to build a resilient community base upon.
If however it collapses slowly (which I personally doubt) we may have a chance.
However, I see this culture, being built upon layers of lies, deception & little else of value able to stall a rapid descent into oblivion………………………………..
You live in good place, perhaps one of the better places in the world to live………….
I’ve lived in Canada, Shanghai, Bangkok, Bali, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur….. and I’ve been fortunate enough to visit close to 50 countries….
I’ve lived here for nearly a year now — and let’s just say we are very pleased we chose NZ….
The majority of people in Australia are sheeple how else do you explain someone like Tony Abbott becoming PM.
Most dimwits in Australia read or watch the Murdoch crap dished up on a daily basis.
Abbott lied, endlessly. I was prepared to let him have a go, but he is so incompetent and venal he hit the rocks straight away. I think today we all are sheeple as being misinformed right left and centre is so all pervasive. A good reason for reading Gail’s blog is that we can be adults and not sheep.
And completely up themselves too. The end will affect Australia, badly.
Fast Eddy
I really don’t care to argue with you. However, for the benefit of anyone who may be interested, I will respond to a few points:
*Water. High organic matter in the soil can enormously increase the water storage capacity of the soil. And if the soil is not compacted, the plants roots will go very deep searching for water. A key to survival if irrigation pumps fail. Water is also the reason I mentioned swales and key-lining. These may help get more water into the soil.
*Weeds. You need to look at Singing Frog Farms or many other examples where weeding is not a big issue and IS NOT accomplished with a plow. For annual weeds, study what Elaine Ingham tells you about high organic content inhibiting the germination of weeds.
*Seeds. Save your own seeds.
*Composting. If you are in the remediation phase, you need a lot of compost. If you are rich, buy it. If you are poor, scavenge and compost. There is an unbelievable amount of material available for composting. Check out The Hidden Half of Nature for a true story of two scientists who learned the value of scavenging and composting. Once you have successfully remediated your soil, the are pretty much into chop and drop…like a forest does with leaves.
*Tools. Someone has figured out that we have several centuries worth of iron available for re-use, and the technology is pretty simple. David Holmgren has remarked that permaculture and Limits to Growth type thinking sparked a revival of blacksmithing, when it was on the verge of extinction.
*Security. There are tons of people who will give you advice on security.
As a matter of curiosity, what is your fungal to bacterial ratio, what is your index of total microbes against the Soil Food Web standards, and what is your percent recalcitrant carbon? Are you dealing with compaction? Does the soil have evidence that it has been anaerobic?
The fact that someone operated a certified organic farm doesn’t tell me very much. Many certified organic farms have very low carbon levels and compaction layers from the heavy machinery and plows.
Don Stewart
That does sound like a good solution!
A word that is under used is decline. Before collapse comes decline. We have been in decline since 1972. It used to be a family of four could be supported by one parent working. They would have a house, car, vacation time, and college. Now that couple must work multiple jobs to live in an apartment with zero kids and no pension. They do have a car, but no vacation.
Would you consider Iraq “in decline”?
Iraq and Libya having all their infrastructure destroyed by aerial bombardment I would call extermination.
The 1970 date is pivotal—that was the year the USA went from energy (exporting) surplus to energy (importing) deficit.
We live in an energy economy, not a money economy.
prosperity exists solely on the surplus of energy that is available—it doesn’t matter whether that is available to an individual, a household, or a nation. If energy slips into deficit, then bankruptcy and poverty is inevitable.
“Western” developed economies are in energy deficit. The result is inescapable.
I have always thought of it that way. I am just surprised the U.S. has held on for this long.
Quality discussion here, that’s the most puzzling aspect of it, I tried to explain it by the fact that the US petrodollar regime has been adopted by the elites globally, in the sense of circling the wagons around it. That’s what hold it together for so long and across multitude of problems, namely basic greed, lust for power and “honor among the thiefs”, Obviously there is upper time limit to this unholy alliance as well..
Lots more debt is what has held the economy together. At some point, the Ponzi Scheme collapses.
“Lots more debt” is just a subsection of “petrodollar regime” or similar widespread scheme at its near saturation point. There is no objective natural law to gauge-limit maximum of possible fraudulent debts. The system might finally stop soldier on at new debt unit issued per production leverage of 15:1, 7:1, or perhaps the current ~5-2:1 ratio (depending on given systemic country). We don’t know, I just reiterate it will only happen as we get close enough to the terminal danger zone of no or negative growth at same time crossing severe down slope of energy production, therefore reaching sort of event horizon. And data shows this is likely 5-15yrs away..
‘And data shows this is likely 5-15yrs away.’
References for this please
? All over the place, I wrote it here numerous times on this and previous comment pages (and several times before). Notably Brown’s ELM shows this whole global exporter vs. importer situation ending in aprox. upto 20yrs horizon, stuff happens before that. And obviously for very short term look for combo of crude price hedges ending and shale/unconventionals bankruptcies, that’s a gauge if we get to see total bottom or not, i.e. $15-25 global crude or the Saudis capitulate for some middle ground of $35-60 pricing (+US gov/bank support) which would keep afloat some of the US unconventionals humming longer. But I doubt the latter as too much has been already put on the fire in Saudi, Russia and elsewhere, they must let it now finish the crash for at least next 2-3yrs to secure their market share for good..
Jeff Brown’s ELM is based on a wrong model of how oil supply drops. It drops for financial reasons, not because of depletion.
Let’s hope!
Ed—-
What we think of as a long time–is in fact very very brief.
Most of can think back across parents and g-parents–a few memories of g-g-parents–but not beyond that.
Personally, I have never known anything other than electric light and water input/output on demand. To me that is ‘forever’ but I know now that I have been priveleged. As a kid I didn’t know that. Now I realise that almost the entire human race is no more than 5 or 6 generations removed from a naked flame society—many are still at that level. My g-gmother’s oil lamp is my abiding memory of her–I thought it was a wonderful thing to have.
We still think of our artificially lit lifestyle as ‘forever’, denying the very brevity and suddenness of its appearance in our human timescale. Thinking of nations carrying on for a ‘long time’ is seen from our personal perspective. In historical timescales nations in energy deficit are enjoying a final episode of ‘freewheeling’ on the impetus of 200 years of industry that gave most of us access to light, heat and machines.
The USA went into energy deficit in 1970; in human terms that’s nothing compared to the 2500 generations since we began our ‘civilisation’.
I think it’s important to look on our current era as nothing more than a very brief flash of light and heat that consumed our excess hydrocarbon fuels.
End, since you have put some serious thoughthours in to our predicament, have you put any thought in the fact that within one or even two generations, the remnants of our civilization can be used by those that know how. Energy maybe lacking, but stuff produced with the energy that was available previously, will be around for a while.
Any considerations about Post-BAU resource scavenging?
Van—–If you mean ‘resource scavenging’ as using say–the vast quantities of scrap metal and other manufactured goods which will be available, then the way I see it, this will be useless.
I would be genuinely happy to be shown to be wrong on this.
But go to a scrapyard and look at the bits of car lying around…the recyclers take that stuff and melt it down, before reworking it into something else. Another car—washing machine–cans—anything. Just about the only thing that could be re-used directly would be window glass.
The critical factor is heat. We may have the knowledge—but we will lack the means.
As I see it, you can’t ‘produce’ with energy that was available previously. Energy can can be used once. You can live in a car (using energy that has been previously used) and keep the rain out, but you can’t make a car into something else.
There’s a beach in India where they beach ships and break them up by muscle power using 000s of men—but the metal itself is carted off to smelters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324339/Worlds-biggest-ship-graveyard–huge-tankers-cruise-liners-scrapped-shorefront-workers-toil-2-day.html
Those ship breakers are paid to shift metal scrap. without furnaces, it would be useless.
On the other hand if you mean producing “new” stuff, using means that previously existed, then obviously charcoal furnace technology would be available, but you get hit with the formula: 1000 tons of tree=100 tons of charcoal=1 ton of iron.
I live where the industrial revolution started (Darby Coalbookdale 1709)—It was a revolution that became critical through a lack of trees (ie the prime energy source) So a new way had to be found to smelt iron. (no iron–no machines–nothing–back to peasantry)
We are now heading into the same problem all over again, insufficient energy to power our industrial system. As our energy sources deplete, our industrial system will grind to a halt, because we do not have another heat source to fall back on.
Hydrocarbon fuels are, after all, just fossilised trees and stuff.
So post BAU, we will try to carry on our fuel burning systems, because that is all we know, or have ever known. That’s probably all there is anyway—unless Trump becomes president and declares the laws of physics to be a hoax.
There is no point in history where humankind has not fabricated metal objects for the purpose of increasing his energy supply (and thus breeding potential)—either by growing food, or by engaging in warfare to grab somebody else’s energy supplies. Darby, though a Quaker, had no problem with supplying cannon to anyone who wanted them.
“On the other hand if you mean producing “new” stuff, using means that previously existed, then obviously charcoal furnace technology would be available, but you get hit with the formula: 1000 tons of tree=100 tons of charcoal=1 ton of iron.”
Turning raw ore into molten pure steel is a bit more energy intensive than heating existing steel up and beating it into a different shape.
A tonne of steel is a lot of hand tools. The metal parts of most tools should not wear out so quickly – with shovels and axes, it is generally the wooden handles that need replacement. How you use, maintain and store the tools has a tremendous effect on how long they last.
You are right…. as usual….
Good point. We are declining…. then we will at some point collapse
The cost of cars, education, health care and new homes has soared. Wages, especially for the young, have stagnated.
As Gail mentioned in this post, how falling oil prices hurts the eCONomies and Govt’s of oil producing Nations. Russia just saw a substantial drop in it’s GDP.
“Russian economy contracts 3.7% on falling oil prices”
https://www.rt.com/business/330066-russia-gdp-statistics-2015/
Given all of the headwinds Russia has been hitting, its economy didn’t do badly with only a 3.7% decline in 2015.
“The final numbers are not in, but it looks like US oil production will still increase by another 700,000 barrels a day in 2015. The 700,000 extra barrels of oil added by the US in 2015 is likely greater than the amount added by either Saudi Arabia or Iraq.”
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Incremental-World_Liquids_Production_Jan2011-Dec2016_EIA_STEO-Oct2015.jpg
from Matt M. are the latest figures I’ve seen — but, I think there are two different concepts concerning “oil extraction”, which need to be differentiated from each other:
(A) keeping the existing oil wells producing; and
(B) “capex” to replace those wells with new ones, after they deplete.
The cost of (A) is low enough so that it makes sense to keep the oil coming, even at <$30/bbl; it's the cost of (B) which doesn't get paid at those prices.
That's why I doubt that world crude oil production will come close to sudden collapse:
http://davecoop.net/senecagraph.gif
Forgot to add the URLs fior the graphs above:
http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs, http://davecoop.net/seneca.htm
Thanks, that’s good companion graph to the discussion on previous page about J. Brown’s ELM. Simply people have to first stare into the abyss for real, meaning both no growth and shortage of energy, while today we still have moribund growth and some energy surplus. And the situation is not likely to change before early 2020s, prior that event the current system can be gorillataped together by myriad of unconventional-fraudulent administrative schemes..
It is hard for us to think of all the scenarios that might take place. If oil companies find no buyers when they go bankrupt, then it seems to me that oil production will be cut off completely. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/some-bankrupt-oil-and-gas-drillers-can-t-give-their-assets-away
Or find prices negative. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Sold-for-050-per-Barrel-A-Negative-Price.html
Or collapsing governments. Or radiation too high for anyone.
I think these add a possibility that both (A) keeping existing wells producing and (B) cutting off CAPEX on new wells will stop at the same time.
“Or radiation too high for anyone.”
Gail, you buy that radiation bit too?
Herman Khan wrote a book in the sixties (?) “On Thermonuclear War”. In it he argued that a thermonuclear war was survivable. I am just mentioning it. I am not endorsing his boo nor conclusion.
“Herman Khan wrote a book in the sixties (?) “On Thermonuclear War”. In it he argued that a thermonuclear war was survivable.”
It probably would have been, in the 1960s. There couldn’t have been more than 1000 Hiroshima style bombs.
Since then, not only have the bombs gotten bigger and in much larger numbers, but we have the much larger issue of nuclear reactors and their spent fuel ponds. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of nuclear material, as opposed to a few tonnes.
Just to clarify, the way I see the nuclear issue is; if MAD has kept nuclear powers from using thermo-nukes on each other, then it follows we would not abandon nuclear power plants due to MAE (mutually assured extinction). This due to the primary instinct to survive and have one’s progeny survive. Extinction is most likely something that would occur against our will and not by choice.
But I also don’t think a post peak oil era will necessarily descend into the abyss of chaos. Not all we have learned or built up will be lost. Sure, a drop down in complexity is assured, but some areas running on hydro, solar and wind may live a fairly decent life. Manufacturing on current scales would be lost but small operations could outfit people with some electronics and be designed around replacing needed parts. Maybe not for huge wind turbines, but maybe solar panels. It doesn’t have to be an all or none scenario. Those extremes are what is known as outlier viewpoints. What is more likely is a checkerboard type scenario of complete collapse in some areas while enclaves of people live quite decently in other areas. A declining population but not extinction.
It is hard to imagine areas running on wind or hydro having more than a five or ten year life span. Too many broken parts that cannot be fixed. A water pump has life expectancy of 10 years. More complex structures have a much shorter life span without spare parts.
“Sure, a drop down in complexity is assured, but some areas running on hydro, solar and wind may live a fairly decent life.”
Maintaining a hydro-dam using a small backyard forge, some old pieces of car, and burning wood is going to be a real challenge. I don;t understand how you think people will maintain solar panels, let alone replace them – are you just talking about the first 10 years after loss of the grid?
What happens with the nuclear reactors and spent fuel ponds? So, people keep them from boiling dry and catching fire for a decade or so. How are they going to dry cask? Large volunteer suicide squads? Otherwise, eventually, the rods, racks and pools will eventually leak. It would be nice to have a model to show projected radiation levels based on different scenarios, such as a long, slow leak, quick dry out and burn, etc.
“This due to the primary instinct to survive and have one’s progeny survive. ”
Do you believe the placing nuclear arms aimed at Moscow less than 800 miles away is a product of “primary instinct”? We are taught that the placing of nuclear arms in Cuba- a similar distance from their targets- was the ultimate provocation, a act that omost resulted in WWIII. Do you believe that is true? If so do you believe that placing nuclear arms in Poland and Romania is a similar act? How do these actions speak to your belief of “primary instinct”? Do you believe the military actions in the Gulf states are motivated by “primary instinct”?
The energy sand in the hourglass is the same for all. Time is running out and risks are being introduced.. Is going into the void locked in stalemate acceptable? I sure hope so but I think not.
I guess Gail is like me — she can’t envision a way to keep complex spent fuel ponds managed — when the world is on fire…
And the facts indicate that if they are not managed…. 4000 of them will blow sky high…. and we are dead….
See http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html
“when the world is on fire…”
Stuff only burns for so long. I know because we had huge fire come through our area on Sept. 12, 2015, The Valley Fire. Now there are green shoots of new growth. I’m not a card carrying dystopian any longer. I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe, oh sorry, that’s a line from Blade Runner. But anyway, the will to live is greater than I think you realize.
Yes it is … we are no different than rats when cornered… and we are in a mighty tight corner….
No food. No energy. Spent fuel ponds.
It is like a rat in the corner and 3 snarling hungry cats are closing in…..
Stilgar, you had 3 major fires burn through your area this year including the Butte and Jerusalem fires. I paid closer attention to the news than most, having once lived in Middletown for 20 years. A close friend and former neighbor was evacuated 3 times, but luckily her home was spared disaster. I wish you and the community well as rebuilding efforts continue.
Don B
I wouldn’t rule it out. There are a lot of things that could go wrong.
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Is the US Economy Close to a Bust?
Manufacturing Weakness
In light of an unbroken string of atrocious manufacturing survey data, we have decided to update a few of the charts we use to assess the economy. For a discussion of the details of the most recent manufacturing surveys see Mish (Empire State and Philadelphia) and Zerohedge (Empire State and Philadelphia). We would note to these data that the strong decline in new orders is especially noteworthy.
To begin with, we want to point out that there is at least one data series that strongly suggests that the economy is not yet in recession, namely private non-residential fixed investment (it has a long history as a confirming indicator).
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/10/1-Non-res-fixed-investment-900×495.png
Real private non-residential fixed investment. This data series tends to decline or at least flatten out just prior to recessions and is definitely declining as soon as a recession is underway. As of Q2 2015, it was still rising, which suggests that a recession hasn’t begun yet – click to enlarge.
This is incidentally also confirmed by the Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” indicator, which currently indicates annualized GDP growth of 0.9% in Q3, which is quite weak, but not yet a contraction. Still, the indicator is currently mired in a downtrend and there are obviously quite worrisome developments underneath the “quiet stagnation”.
One thing that we cannot stress often enough is that the manufacturing sector is far more important to the economy than its contribution to GDP would suggest. Since GDP fails to count all business spending on intermediate goods, it simply ignores the bulk of the economy’s production structure. However, this is precisely the part of the economy where the most activity actually takes place. The reality becomes clear when looking at gross output per industry: consumer spending at most amounts to 35-40% of economic activity. Manufacturing is in fact the largest sector of the economy in terms of output.
Although we have no recent update on gross output yet, both manufacturing and mining output have turned negative in Q1 already, and given the survey data received since then, it is a good bet that this downturn has continued. In fact, the following chart of business spending, inventories and the inventories/sales ratio recently mailed out by our friend Michael Pollaro (keeper of TMS statistics) suggests as much – these data show the situation as of August. If we were to judge the state of the economy based on this chart alone, we would probably conclude that a recession has already begun:
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/10/2-Business-sales-900×660.png
More http://www.acting-man.com/?p=40756
Thanks for the link to the article. I found this chart especially interesting, because of the many things that happened about the same time, in the early 1970s, especially the rise in the price of oil.
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/10/5-Cap-vs-consumer-goods-LT.png
Capital goods are very different from consumer good, especially non-durable consumer goods. They require debt. They require extraction of materials in advance of when they are actually used. They tend to move the output of the economy away from common workers, and toward management and owners.
I replied earlier. One thing I didn’t mention is that this post is from Oct. 2015. His “close to a bust” statement was three months ago now.
We went back to BF…. let’s go forward to post collapse…
Let’s assume a series of miracles happen and everyone does not starve to death or die from radiation poisoning when the spent fuel ponds burn up….
Pockets of survivors form ‘tribes’ in the more temperate parts of the planet…. they live grinding existences but not quite as bad as the life of a farmer from many centuries ago — they have all the hand tools left behind at Wally’s World….
But tools as we know wear out…they bust…. so soon enough someone in one of the tribes says ‘hey chief — we need to make more tools — I have worked out how we can recycle metal using charcoal and make shovels and picks and stuff’
Chief says – yep let’s get on it… and while you are at it see if you can restart the industrial revolution …. just read a few old texts about how they did this in the 1800’s….. I think the first thing would be to read up on building a steam engine….
Fast Eddy — by this time an old somewhat wise man says but hang on Chief…. I think I have read that book before….
Oh pooh pooh yourself Fast Eddy ….. I want to live the GOOD LIFE…. don’t you?
Well ya…. but…
And off to the races the tribe goes — blacksmiths are trained up — entire forests are hacked down and used as the fuel for what is termed Industrial Revolution Two.
Thousands of shovels are produced… hoes…. saws… you name it…… steam engines are engineered…. trains …. tractors….
Yippee says the Chief – look at what we have done —- see Fast Eddy — you were wrong!
But then one day the entire planet looks like one big ol Haiti…..
Because unlike in the 1800’s….. this time trees are all we have left……
The End (of the planet)
Are you for real? There are at least in the west dozens of thousand both of professional and hobby pedigree folks doing old historic crafts like metal smith, leather, textiles, building, and what have you. I don’t think they will all instantly die on spot just because FE doesn’t favor the horrors of “long emergency scenario” and rather wants everything going extinct with current BAU ending more or less instantly. To the contrary those very people are already taken in high esteem in their local community, and this will only strengthen on the collapse staircase..
By which I mean a situation in which COG specialist, proto-feudalist or what have you is going to apply triage to resources constantly, and those skilled people would be considered a treasure..hence more protected and pampered over the peasant class..
FE thinks it is great to poison people for profit, and he’s proud of it.
That is not true: FE prefers unhealthy survival compared to starvation. To be or not to be!
Nemesis, I guess you are also alive on the expense of something else – as we are all!
Not all poisons are fast
I don’t think that is what he is saying.
I think what is happening is a consequence of doing something that helped farmers produce more. We probably have a number of other changes of this type–for example, all of the high-fructose corn syrup put in American food and feeding US animals mostly corn, so that the portion of Omega 3s in the fat went way down. Making food with a lot of highly processed starches is another problem–food comes predigested, little nutrition attached, and certainly no fiber. A person might expect government to prevent this kind of thing from happening, but it didn’t. Now US life expectancy is down, relative to other developed countries, and perhaps even in absolute terms–at least certain categories.
No.
What I know is that we cannot feed 7.5 billion people using organic farming methods.
What I know is that we must do ‘whatever it takes’ to ensure 7.5 billion people have a reliable source of cheap food – because if they don’t all hell will break lose.
What I know is that Monsanto products are not good for you — but they allow us to feed 7.5 B people.
Would I prefer we did not have to eat chemicals with our food. Definitely.
But we have no choice.
There is no — excuse the pun — free lunch
“I don’t think they will all instantly die on spot just because FE doesn’t favor the horrors of “long emergency scenario” and rather wants everything going extinct with current BAU ending more or less instantly.”
Bravo! The ‘long emergency scenario’ makes much more sense.
The idea that under the duress of contraction from diminishing returns our entire species would abandon nuclear power plants to let them release all of their radiation causing mass extinction is to presuppose we don’t know what would happen if we left the nuclear power plants to meltdown. Really, humankind is so stupid we can do all this other stuff but somehow we just abandon the nuclear power plants?! That’s an absurd idea. Even if we suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune post peal oil era, the nuclear fuel will be handled as needed, guaranteed. Even if we have to set up soup lines outside the nuclear plants to draw in people to do work there, the job will get done and for as many years as needed.
Initial attack at Chernobyl consited of soldiers wearing crude lead vests dropping carbon blocks into the melt hole. They were provided with lots of vodka afterwords. Guess how long they lasted? Later prison inmates were utilized to collect samples from the “elephants foot” when it was finally found. Their familys recieved benefit. None of the team that investigated how the melt occured and found the elephants foot survived however their demise was somwhat slower than the inmates . Lots of vodka was provided to the team during their research. Perhaps we can leverage off these ideas!
Yeah, but Chernobyl was the result of an accidental meltdown, not a deliberate effort to ignore the need for regular maintenance of cooling ponds after shutdown.
Why is it “a deliberate effort to ignore the need” after collapse but not now? If the distinct need to provide the resources to safely contain the spent fuel is being ignored now while BAU is in effect why would it occur post collapse? Why is it a “deliberate effort” post collapse but not now?
What I hear you saying is life will be cheap after the collapse so people can be motivated to do work that will shorten their life significantly?
A your expendable humans fall ill from radiation sickness what will you do take them out back and shoot them? Do you think that another line of eager volunteers will quickly form?
Chernobyl occurred while BAU all of its motivations and rewards were still in effect. Do you think that post collapse the ability to motivate individuals will be greater? Who will be the great authority who magically takes the burden of the spent fuel upon their shoulder and provides motivation ala resources to get the lemmings to cooperate? Where will the resources come from? How will the opportunity be communicated to the lemmings?
The motivation to work at nuclear power plants is largely economic – about three times the going rate for actually very easy work. With that gone… The rods get moved robotically. All of the means of controlling nuclear power is a product of modern technology. Are you proposing that humans will move the rods by hand? If you envision that the pools will get filled with a bucket brigade of lemmings that will compensate for evaporation I suppose thats vaguely possible if indeed this hypothetical motivational system was created. Will the lemmings be trained personal protective equipment? Where will the PPE come from?
Right now the spent fuel could be contained for a pittance of the effort it would take to contain it post collapse. Power , technology and expertise is all available now. Yet it remains undone.
To think that post collapse it will get done is to my mind a belief that the things that must get done will get done. I do not think that belief is based in reality. I think that belief is a product of the decades of free energy we have experienced. It is a belief not shared by those who live in the third world who daily see things that must get done not get done. To think that a brand new system of labor motivation will be created effective and maintained for not just one but each and every spent pool pond post collapse…
Exactly.
http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/sellafield-safety-shocker-nuclear-waste-4538648
http://i4.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/article4538627.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/sellafield-shocker.jpg
With busted seals, broken nozzles and rusted pipes plaguing America’s nuclear power plants, a report released by The Associated Press today warns that the US is in danger of copycatting the catastrophe that ravaged the Fukushima facility in Japan.
https://www.rt.com/usa/us-nuclear-report-ap/
After some consideration I have decided that it is possible that some form of rudimentary fuel pool maintenance could be done with human labor post collapse. The possibilty of concentration camp labor can not be discounted.
Chernobyl is also nothing compared to a spent fuel pond… they continue many times more fuel rods than a reactor…..
Oh I omost forgot. The extensive use of homeless people at the Fukushima “clean up”. Another idea we can leverage off of!
I didn’t say homeless, just hungry.
“I didn’t say homeless, just hungry.”
If the means of motivation is deprivation of one basic need wouldnt deprivation of multiple basic needs be more effective? Perhaps the lemmings could also be provided with drugs and sex workers? Carrot and stick doncha know. Hey this plan is starting to shape up nicely!
The thing is…
A spent fuel pond cannot be maintained by homeless people pouring in buckets of water…. these are not backyard swimming pools….
Yes, exactly.
the arithmetic of population expansion/contraction is very simple:
Right now, there are 7.3 billion of us alive, of which about a half live “on the edge” –with a billion actually below what we accept as the poverty line.
At current rate of growth, another 2bn will be added by 2050
By 2100, another 2 bn.
total:- 11Billion
The current land area available per person is about 100m X 100m, but that must supply all our needs and infrastructures, so the actual available space available to deliver basic energy needs (ie food) is far less than that.
Thus the difference has to be made up by hydrocarbon fuel input.
As population grows, our individual available space diminishes, and so hydrocarbon energy inputs must increase pro rata.
But fuel energy cannot go on increasing —(the current ‘glut’ is a temporary anomaly).
It follows therefore that as available land area decreases and population increases, conflict is inevitable over decreasing space.
We do not have sufficient energy resources to support 7bn now, certainly not 9 bn in 2050, still less 11bn by 2100; it follows therefore that between now and 2050 our population total must undergo a violent correction.
We just don’t know when, only that during the next 50 years, we must “lose” at least 5 billion people by some means. Dress it up how you like, but that’s 10 million a year, maybe a lot more.
they can starve slowly, or get killed quickly…take your choice–the end figure is clear. There isnt room for everyone to be a refugee.
Every major conflict in the last century can be shown to be as a result of attempts to secure resources, in particular, oil.
It is no coincidence that conflict across the Middle east right now is over resources, financially supported and driven by oil. It is a dress rehearsal for the future of all of us. The warring factions in that region do not stop to consider the human cost of what they are doing, any more than the Germans or the Japanese did in 1940, only that war must go on until one side or the other collapses through exhaustion. The fact that they are destroying the land they need to live on is irrelevant. We are destined to repeat our history. Already the dream of European harmony is beginning to turn into a nightmare.
Human nature is programmed to survive at all costs (altruism is a luxury of the affluent), so as the ‘correction’ begins to manifest itself, conflict is certain to erupt, on a wider and wider scale as resources deplete.
The ultimate victors in war are famine pestilence and death. Our excess numbers will have no resistance to their conquest.
“The current land area available per person is about 100m X 100m, but that must supply all our needs and infrastructures, so the actual available space available to deliver basic energy needs (ie food) is far less than that.”
At first glance, that doesn’t seem so bad. That’s 10 acres to support a family of 4. Then you consider what portion is north of 60, or desert. So, some people get larger crappier land and the people with the good land get less. Pretty bleak.
I meant 100 metre by 100 metres—-which makes things even bleaker
“I meant 100 metre by 100 metres—-which makes things even bleaker”
Yes, 100 meters by 100 meters is 10,000 square meters, which is also known as a hectare, which is also known as 2.47 acres.
100m=100 meters=300 feet
300ft by 300 ft is 90,000 sq ft, one acre is 40,000 sq ft So we have 2.25 acres per person or 9 acres per family of four. Of course some land is the Sahara desert and some is the tops of mountains and some is frozen arctic.
100 yards is 300 feet.
100 meters is 328.084 feet.
i should have put more stress into the point that if your 100×100 square of land is under a building or road or highway or glacier, then you’re going to have to ask someone else for a share of their 100×100 bit of real estate.
deduct all the unusable land from the total and you finish up with very little
That is 100 million a year for 50 years.
Dear Ed;
Math! Actually arithmetic, but still very useful.
Totally Counting,
Pintada
Why the 1977 Blackout Was One of New York’s Darkest Hours
July 13, 1977: New York City endures a 25-hour blackout after lightning strikes power lines, prompting widespread arson, looting, and riots
Check out what happened next: http://time.com/3949986/1977-blackout-new-york-history/
Now imagine a situation where the power goes out everywhere — forever….. and the police are no longer paid and decide their families are the only ones deserving of protection….
One word: anarchy
Make sure you have a plan that allows you to end things for you and your family —- humans are capable of heinous acts …..
7.5 billion starving people — very little food — and no 911…..
Unfortunately, I agree with you. We have a big problem!
Stilgar – surely you can see the layoffs…. the bankruptcies…. the death spiral that is building…
I would agree the world is unlikely to unravel tomorrow — or next week — but at some point it will unravel — quickly
Do you not recall those days post Lehman? Massive numbers of jobs were being shed…. the global economy was seizing up ….
Can you not see that when the central banks run out of ammo — it all comes crashing down?
Or perhaps you do not want to see? I can understand that…..
Better hope these guys are still in business while all this is going down…
http://www.holtecinternational.com/productsandservices/wasteandfuelmanagement/multi-purpose-canisters/
It’s not impossible to cask all the spent fuel that’s ready to cask in the given countdown to the end of BAU and even for some time after as things wind down and urgency increases.
But on a global scale? It’s a long shot…
Around since 1992….. wondering why spent fuel is not being stored in these…. instead of ponds….
Is this a form of ‘dry cask technology?’ — if so it’s not relevant because fuel must remain in the ponds for as long as 10 years before it can be casked….
While the adaptability of the MPC to DOE-owned fuel has been demonstrated, significant design issues remain to be addressed. These issues are a function of the characteristics of the fuel to be managed, and decisions concerning potential treatment of DOE-owned fuel prior to final disposition.
http://www.wmsym.org/archives/1997/sess12/12-01.htm
Hey all, I know I have been away for a while, business has been insane recently (hooray for huge sums of government money!) but I wanted to throw in my two cents to the debate. I’ve worked in Electrical Engineering (specifically in Energy/Heavy Industrial and Automation) for 10 years now. I’ve worked with Bruce Nuclear and now the early stages of the Darlington refit as well as steel mills, refineries and oil & gas infrastructure companies. What I see in my day-to-day and the experiences that I have had over the years definitely has me leaning into the fast(er) collapse crowd. I can’t predict exactly what will happen over the next few years but I will tell you and give you some personal examples of just how utterly unstable and brittle the ‘behind the scenes’ world is that supports our BAU lives.
Just before Christmas I was in bed with my honey on a Sunday morning when my phone rang and it was on of the PM’s I work with at a very large industrial plant telling me that they had had a fire overnight that had destroyed some key control systems and cables and their entire operation was down, they were losing over a million dollars an hour and they needed replacements to get them back up and running. These were very run-of-the mill cables and parts like contactors, relays and soft starters but they had exactly ZERO replacements. Like many companies since 2009, they have been doing everything possible to maximize the balance sheet and one of those things was getting rid of their critical replacement stores. This company is not alone, in fact 95% of my heavy industrial customers do not keep critical spares on the shelves.
Let’s talk about power distribution; basic switchgear like air breakers and oil filled transformers are not kept in huge supply and are built to order by manufacturers with materials and parts brought in from Asia. Should disruptions in the supply chain occur there will be long delays and shortages which mean that parts of the grid could go down for extended periods.
Specialist parts like 35KV fuses, high current relays and drives are not stocked in depth by anyone and would quickly run out should the supply be interrupted and many important power generation, wastewater treatment and heavy industrial processes require these to function.
Let me be clear, I do not want a fast-crash, I live in a Condo on the lake, I like the view, I like the little restaurants down the street, I love playing hockey on Saturday nights and I very much would like BAU to keep going forever. Nor am I prophesizing anything, what I want to do is point out how very interconnected the supply chain is for such basic things as power and water and how precarious things look to me sitting here at my desk working with PM’s and Engineers throughout Canada, many of whom are seeing the same vulnerabilities. The world we live in is not the same world as even thirty years ago, a lot of the manufacturing base in North America has been gutted, a lot of knowledge has been lost in the repair and maintenance of things as simple as a contactor (which is a glorified electromagnetic relay) and how quickly many industries would grind to a halt without spares available. I look at how 80% of my countries fresh food is being imported and how the cost of a bunch of scrawny green onions right now is $2.99 at the local Fortino’s and if a panic started during the winter how quickly our food supplies here would be cut off or severely restricted. This is why I fear a fast crash but hope for a slow one.
Good to hear your voice again.
SG, good to hear from you. Great post with real facts from the ground.
Canada and all northern countries need to consume more energy per capita and have food growing issues. Even the northern half of the U.S. has this issue. I expect hard times for Canada and New York State.
Interesting. The situation looks like the one in Sweden. A couple of weeks ago a newspaper concluded that we have 0% self sufficiency if a crisis should strike us. For instance water cleaning chemicals was one of the things connected to the just in time of demand system and they are imported from abroad. Ok, I think they actually had a stockpile sufficient for a week.
Please come back more frequently. We need more people from Realitystan here ….
Thanks! I appreciate your on-the-ground look at the situation.
Yes right on. It will be like little house on the prairie. The greater the contribution of the individual the more respect and wealth they will have. Everyone will respect that wrealth because they respect the service provideded by that individual. That respect is much stronger than any basic needs for the individual and his family. The foundation for that strong respect is already layed in our society where community values are more important than basic selfish needs.
I think we need small cohesive communities for this to happen.
More importantly — we will need food…. and we will not have it
Unfortunately, this scenario sounds about right.
It is amazing how the myth of the sustainable farmer dies so hard…..
It’s even harder to crack the glass on this topic than the solar jesus myth….
why dyou think I gave my book the the title : The End of More?
Every line of thought and action on this subject, whether on people or things, (or the planet itself) twists itself back to that simple conclusion.
Whatever it is you have in mind to do, on any scale that is fully functional, you cannot do it without application of heat at some point in the process. The bigger the project or object, the more heat you have to expend in order to make it work.
We will have plenty of cars to recycle for metal? No—because we will not have the heat input to do it, or the mechanical systems to alter shapes (other than hammers and anvils-)–which are in themselves a product of heat application.
Folks doing hobbycrafts etc are doing it on the back of an existing industrial society. Pre-industrial revolution, hobby crafts didn’t exist, unless you count wall tapestries, which were a brilliant method of secondary wall insulation—and they were only found in the very highest status homes/castles. Everybody else, made do with walls made of wood, with gaps plugged with straw, mud and horse manure. (it was called wattle and daub–bricks need heat )
Yes, people with those old skills were treasured, in the main because smiths made weapons and armour, builders built castles.
End, we will have plenty of cars to be used as food drying platforms. I can think of uses to the waterpump, hoses, radiator, seats, start motor solenoid, the tires, but other than that, just food drying and storage, I guess.
“We will have plenty of cars to recycle for metal? No—because we will not have the heat input to do it”
So, do you claim day 1 post BAU 100% of all trees in all the world will cease to exist, and never grow back?
As we know — deforestation was a massive problem in the 1800’s.
If not for fossil fuels we most certainly would have Easter Islanded the earth ….
Do you think we would have said ‘hey let’s stop’ Of course not. We never stop. In fact we could not have stopped without collapsing that version of BAU — and returning to a very primitive existence.
We will most definitely carry on where we left off in the 1800’s – only with far more people….
Initially people will cut and burn trees to keep warm and cook food.
Then those that survive will quickly start to use charcoal to make ‘stuff’ – particularly implements for farming ….
But this time the resources are gone — it’s trees and nothing else….
No reprieve for the forests this time —- burn baby burn…. to the very last tree.
they will grow back, but not until the people with axes stop cutting them down…..
“day1” is too simplistic a concept—the situation will be one of denial for many years—just like the denial period we are in right now,
The mass of people want to believe that which feeds their immediate needs, not a situation where those needs have no hope of being met.
Watch a Trump-rant—he feeds on that, making promises he has no hope of fulfilling, just like a gospel tent preacher with the skill to whip crowds up into a frenzy with no substance behind it.
But of course his dim witted followers believe him, because they have nothing else to believe in.
The power of personality cults. I can only see this phenomena increasing as the screws are tightened and people look for a saviour that will “put things right”.
Another thing, although a lot of alternative media pundits have been predicting this decline for some time now, not many of them appear to actually believe that things will get that bad. There appears to be an equal and opposite belief or faith in technological innovation and progress as the ultimate saviour of mankind.
On the one hand, they talk of extreme hardship from economic collapse, martial law, storing gold, guns and ammo, prepping for the worst… and on the other, they’ll wax lyrical about humanity colonising the solar system… rising to our full potential…
Even among people that have a decent grasp of the predicament we face, not many accept that things could go THAT wrong. It’s just a matter of surviving the “dip”, the reset, or whatever, and we’ll be back on the up and up in no time.
Rick
In the run up to the 2012 POTUS election I wrote the following (you’ll have to take my word for it) :
———–
1……It’s not the 2012 election you have to worry about, it’s 2016 or 2020.
While a lot of us laugh at this kind of loonytoon politics, millions of desperate people don’t.
2……Now look ahead to 2016 or 2020. We’ve already seen whack-job candidates up for election as president, luckily they were laughed out of court. In 4 or 8 years time when the economy has really collapsed, some real godnuts will surface to offer ‘solutions’ and voters will be ready to grasp at any form of insanity if it promises ‘salvation’ and restoration of ‘the American Dream’.
———————-
My only error was that Trump isn’t a godnut.
He is however a fascist, which extreme religious type mania requires one to be. He has aroused a personality cult among people who know no better—they are the same people aroused to a frenzy in the Nuremberg rallies of the 30s. Trump is the saviour who will ‘put things right’ just as Hitler made the same promises.
He is repeating what I said in 2011–‘making America great again’.
They also believe Musk’s silliness about colonising the stars, with no knowledge of the energy needed to do that.
‘TPTB will do whatever they’re going to do and at some point I feel they will retreat into their bunkers and allow collapse to unfold. What else can they do? They are not all powerful as some people like to believe.’
I couldn’t agree more.
I wonder how many years of food supplies are in the bunker….
I wonder who they have chosen for the security detail — one would want to have highly indoctrinated men in that role (special forces of the IDF – Israeli Defence Forces) — men who have been tested psychologically to ensure that they have no alpha tendencies whatsoever…. stupid men who respect authority … with a heavy does of religious zealotry … dedicated to the cause…. who would never think to turn on the leaders…
“they will grow back, but not until the people with axes stop cutting them down…..” and
““day1” is too simplistic a concept—the situation will be one of denial for many years—just like the denial period we are in right now,”
So, the trees will only last until they are cut down, but the people who will cut them down will sit around for years in denial? Won’t they starve before they cut down all the trees if they are too busy being in denial?
Unless you repurpose the land, new seedlings will grow back to replace the cut down trees. Without fossil fuels or work animals, I doubt there will be straight up clearcuts like today; I suspect people will be more selective, and cut smaller trees they can actually haul by hand.
The people will need an awful lot of food if they are going to be hauling firewood several miles. If food is a constraint, they won’t be able to get that firewood. Or they will have to live in a mud hut near the wood for accessibility, if there is food nearby. Since the wild game will disappear pretty quickly, I don;t see how people will be able to move en masse into the woods to be close to the fuel and still have enough food to be doing all this hard labour.
Matthew, do you mean there would be a progression maybe something like this:
Year 1 Post-BAU: an area within a walking distance of any major city is cleared of all animals, trees and just about everything else.
Year 2 Post-BAU: population die-off, cities are now mostly empty, survivng people have left the cities and spread all over all habitable land. All habitable land is cleared af all animals, trees etc.
Year 3 Post-BAU: population die-off, constant “civil war”, anarchy everywhere, military runs out of all fuel storages, roaming bands of marauders, successful homesteads now limited to previously uninhabited territories. Previously dense woods are cleared by slash and burn, and as fuel.
Year 10 Post-BAU: All available woods, animals etc. have been cleared, everywhere. If domestic populations in Canada, Russia or Scandinavia can not do it by themselves, they are “helped” by mass migrations from their southern neighbours.
“Matthew, do you mean there would be a progression maybe something like this:”
That seems like a reasonable general idea, but I think people will run out of food way before they clearcut all the trees. It is easier to scavenge wood from abandoned homes then to cut down trees from miles away. 2″X4″s are pretty good fuel.
I think the events you have at year 3 are more likely during year 1 and 2. I think by Year 3, if it is a full global collapse with no grid and no new oil production, there would be >90 percent depopulation and the rest of the people will be too busy getting food and boiling water to bother raiding each other. Survivors probably in small communities of 50 to 150 people that all know and trust each other, with a mile of buffer between themselves and the next settlement of survivors.
By Year 10, I think half of suburbia will be taken over with new seedling forests. The inner cities will take longer, since the asphalt and cement will have to crack enough just from weather (with little to no traffic) for plants to take root and accelerate the decay.
I doubt that we will cut all the trees down — we will be extincted by famine and/or radiation long before we get to that point
Matthew
a tree is a source of energy—in a cold latitude you need heat to survive.
survival might be limited, but human thinking will always focus on the here and now—you need food now, shelter now, heat now—particularly if you have a dependent family.
You don’t think—“this is the last tree, the future needs it”
Every energy source gets over exploited, croplands turn into deserts, seas get fished out. oilwells sucked dry.
The UK was once forested almost entirely. Those forests were cleared by men with the most basic of hand tools,—there were always more trees to supply fuel.
Easter island too was once completely wooded—and men cut down even the last tree in pursuit of survival. They survived, but at a much reduced level of population. The Easter Islanders were no doubt in denial. They used the trees to help with construction of the god-images, then when the trees had all gone, and their worship failed to work, they pulled down most of the statues and buried them. That was perhaps the point at which reality kicked in.
The scale was much smaller, but the thinking was exactly the same.
The difference between Easter Island and the UK was that of isolation, Easter Island was too far away from anywhere for effective input of other people and influences.
The planet as a whole is now like Easter Island
“Every energy source gets over exploited, croplands turn into deserts, seas get fished out. oilwells sucked dry.”
Only if people have the supplemental energy and tools to do so. People cut down trees much slower with hand tools. A smaller population also helps. Centralization would help even more – I figure a longhouse with 80 people in it would only need two or three times as much firewood as a single family of four in their own house.
“The UK was once forested almost entirely. Those forests were cleared by men with the most basic of hand tools,—there were always more trees to supply fuel.”
Only after they got to advanced farming production and had major growth in cities and industrial production. I think that may take centuries after BAU, if ever. And then what would they need all that wood for? With all the rich veins of ores already depleted, a couple hundred years post collapse.
“Easter island too was once completely wooded—and men cut down even the last tree in pursuit of survival.”
More likely, the rats, which had no predators, ate all the seeds of the trees, preventing them from reproducing.
‘People cut down trees much slower with hand tools’
Europeans decimated their forests with hand tools in the 1800’s…
There will be a lot more people around when BAU hits — with far better axes than in the 1800’s…
But then there will be no food — so nobody will have the energy to cut down a tree.
“Europeans decimated their forests with hand tools in the 1800’s…”
“But then there will be no food — so nobody will have the energy to cut down a tree.”
Exactly. By the 1800s, the population had grown quite a bit, while the percentage of people needed for farming and fishing was dropping. For at least a few decades post-BAU, I think it will be all hands on deck for food production, since there won’t be the abundance of draft animals they had back then, nor the wooden sailing ships and abundant fish and whale stocks.
Actually there are far more ships available now than in the 1800’s…. and they are far better than the ships of the 1800’s….
http://features.boats.com/boat-content/files/2013/06/sail-boat.jpg
In the 1800’s there were massive tracts of land that were farming organically — now — based on the info I posted last month — well under 1% of all arable land is farmed organically — and much of that is pasture…..
99% of all land is farmed with chemicals which renders it dead land post BAU…
Even in a place like Bali the rice farmers were virtually all using urea …. there soil was dead…. there was an NGO that was trying to convince farmers to switch back to organic methods…. but the problem is that if you swap your entire paddy over you have to wait years to get a crop — so you starve in the meantime — what they were doing was converting small portions of farms gradually back to organic…. perhaps 10% at a time — I would note that not a single farmer in our village was converting — and I was told that very few on the entire island were participating…
One could enslave a million people and ask them to work the land below … which looks lush and rich…. but onto which urea has been dumped for decades….
So the slaves could drop seedlings into the soil …
http://www.visityuma.com/art/agriculture2.jpg
But they may as well be dropping them into this…
http://www.ncaveo.ac.uk/2006expt/experiment_photos/Resize500_DEFRA_GCT_after.jpg
Nothing will grow in either
That seems to be another fact (right up their with spent fuel ponds)….
That everyone simply chooses to ignore….
And ironically ….. there are voices calling for a return to the 1800’s — as if that way of living was sustainable….
Farming is NOT sustainable —- farming was to a large extend the point at which we stepped onto the treadmill to hell…. it lead us to pillage and destroy the environment —- it lead to a surge in population ….. all of which lead us to the burning of fossil fuels.
Farming is death. Post BAU, if we return to farming (which we will) all that will do is deliver the coup de grace to the planet — it is guaranteed we will pick up where we left off and chop down every last tree.
Hunter Gatherer. That’s the only way forward.
Obviously that is out of the question. We are not going to live like animals…. we are above that….
Assuming fast collapse Matthew’s scenario looks more realistic to me. That is 90% drop of population within three years from the breakdown of the state. My guess is that it will be even quicker. Theoretically there is food around for the first year. Already after that we will definitely have a quick population die-off. But considering the way societies rely on just in time of demand it will probably be even quicker. The distribution of food will not work already from day one. We will of course also have problems with clean water. From what I have understood water cleaning chemicals are part of JIT in for instance Sweden (probably many other countries as well). Furthermore, without electricty the sewer system will flood since it relies on a system of distributed pumping stations to work. This will contaminate water. So fresh water will be an issue as well.since pathogens spread from the sewer system. Then of course there will be some degree of violence. Hard to say when it will start and how severe it will become. These factors will cause a quick die-off already at year one. Maybe we have better resilience? In such a case it’s hard for me to see it.
“That is 90% drop of population within three years from the breakdown of the state. My guess is that it will be even quicker. ”
I think of it as an optimistic 3 months, pessimistic 3 years, depending on how and when collapse happens, and other conditions – such as a harsh or mild winter, any epidemic just prior to collapse, etc.
The faster, the better for the survivors, as a slower collapse means more destruction of trees, contamination of water, consumption of resources – more people cutting up and burning abandoned dwellings, for example.
Of course, it also depends on the decline prior to outright collapse. If there is a civil war, that is pretty much the worst scenario. Artillery, air strikes, etc result in almost total destruction of capital, resources, etc. Having the banks freeze up and oil stop flowing is better, since without fuel and money, prolonged armed conflict is more difficult.
a balance will be struck between the muscle power of the cutters, and the growing power of the trees.
This will depend very much on latitude.
On the equator, trees grow very quickly, the further north you go, the growth rate slows eventually to zero—but in northern areas there are fewer people anyway.
It’s all nature’s balance.
As a case in point, the first Amazonia explorers reported seeing prosperous civilisations all up that river.
Then when others went 100 years later they found nothing.
The diseases of the first wave had wiped out most of the indigenous people, leaving too few to cut back the strong tree growth of the rainforest, hence existing settlements simply vanished.
Now large area of the forest are being cleared again, those ancient settlements are being revealed
End of more,
“On the equator, trees grow very quickly, the further north you go, the growth rate slows eventually to zero”
This is what intuition says. But reality is more complicated. Photosynthesis is most efficient in the temperature inteval 20-25 degrees C. Hotter or colder you loose efficiency due to increased breathing=sugar consumtion. Temperate areas are often below 20 and tropical areas above 25. (In the rain forrests trees lower the temperature by transpiring water=costs sugar) Furthermore, in temperate areas you have a lot of light half of the year and little light the other half. Trees goes into dormancy for almost half a year and in that state they require almost no energy they save sugar and don’t breath. The bright period of the year it is bright a bigger part of the day than in the tropics, this means little sugar losses during night. In the tropics trees never goes dormant. Consequently the tropical trees do loose a lot more of energy=sugar during night. This means that temperate trees often have a better net energy gain from the sun light.
Temperate forrests can compete with tropical forrests in productivity. The difference is not as wide as you easily think.
I read that he is promising to bring back Apple manufacturing jobs to the US……
What the people don’t realize is that he is serious — he neglected to mention that salaries will be $300 per month though .. hehehe….
When I read physics articles that refer to heat as “low quality energy,” it always strikes me as strange. While we need a little energy in the form of electricity, we need a whole lot of energy in the form of heat. Going from heat => electricity => heat seems rather wasteful.
Gail
You have described one of the thermodynamic limitations which indicate that we are approaching the end of an era It takes a lot of very cheap energy if you want to do complicated things with inherently inefficient methods. So, for example, putting a barrel of water inside a greenhouse, which gets warm during the day and radiates heat during the cold night, is pretty efficient in that it uses low quality heat from the sun and radiates low quality heat into the greenhouse. But if you try to use electricity to heat the barrel of water, you are using very high quality energy to provide the low quality radiant heat. In order to make it work energetically, you have to have super-inexpensive ways to generate electricity. In order to make it work monetarily, you have to satisfy the requirement:
*the value of the crops produced exceeds the total cost of producing the electricity, including all the societal costs and the pollution costs
If you want to try to make it work energetically, you must satisfy the requirement:
*producing food with electric heating gives a greater return than simply using traditional farming methods, or passive methods such as the Chinese greenhouses that Tom Murphy has recently described.
If you make up thermodynamic equations, they will not look too much like a Hubbert curve. Hubbert curves may be involved, but the solution to the equations won’t look much like a Hubbert curve at all. More like a Seneca curve.
(Warning: amateur thermodynamicist rambling on.)
Don Stewart
Each form of energy has its own ‘quality’, that I think we can classify by looking at the efficiency rates of conversion of one form into another.
When you climb down the ladder you can get high to very high efficiency (for example electricity to heat: 100%),
but it falls down a lot when you try to ‘re-grade’ (for example, heat to electricity: ca 30%).
All the losses during the processes are in the form of waste heat. Eventually, the totality of the energy ends up in the form of waste heat.
Our thermo-industrial civilisation is very inefficient because we almost always start from heat to get various outputs in other forms.
Nature makes much better use of its energy inputs, by using them sparsely in efficient chemical reactions (efficiency also comes from the fact that chemical energy is a stored form, whilst electricity and heat are ‘free energy’ that is either used immediately, or lost).
“Our thermo-industrial civilisation is very inefficient because we almost always start from heat to get various outputs in other forms.
Nature makes much better use of its energy inputs, by using them sparsely in efficient chemical reactions”
We don’t start from heat. We start from stored chemical energy in oil and coal, or in unstable isotopes.
Humans and human technologies tend to trade efficiency for throughput. A tree may be efficient, but it doesn’t move very quickly. A Hummingbird is much less efficient than a human walking, perhaps even less efficient than an automobile. Vertical take off and landing is a very expensive proposition, for nature or for human technology.
Slow is efficient, fast is energy expensive.
Good observation! I can believe that. Fast probably needs a lot of debt to support its operation as well.
its all goldman sachs fault the price of oil dropping to such lows to apparently sink Russia. Really?
http://russia-insider.com/en/business/goldman-drives-oil-prices-down/ri12364
Stange article!
2008 was just the warm up …… this is apocalyptic news for commodity producers….
Leaked Document Reveals Why China Will Not Unleash Any Major Monetary Stimulus
Update: moments ago the WSJ confirmed all of this when it reported that PBOC PRIORITIZES STRONG YUAN IN MANAGING LIQUIDITY: WSJ
Goodbye stimulus.
In a world in which every nation is now part of the race to debase their currency, or as the Brazilian finance minister first dubbed it in 2010, a “global currency war”, the first and foremost imperative on every central bank’s agenda is to devalue its currency faster than its net exporting peers. But not too fast: indeed, there is a problem, when the threat of devaluation becomes too great and the risk resulting from a flood of capital outflow surpasses than that from the economic contraction that would persist should the currency not devalue fast enough.
This is precisely what is happening in China, where as we reported two weeks ago, the nation has, over the past 18 months, seen $1 trillion in capital quietly exiting the otherwise closed system which has terrified the Politburo that even its $3.5 trillion in foreign reserves (of which about $1.5 trillion are said to be liquid) won’t be enough if the capital outflow accelerates.
This has in turn put the Chinese central bank in a very uncomfortable position: while the PBOC desperately needs to boost monetary stimulus to facilitate debt creation in a nation where company have to issue new debt just to pay their interest, or as Minsky called it, the endgame…
More http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-24/leaked-document-reveals-why-china-will-not-roll-out-any-major-monetary-stimulus
Thanks! Without growth from China, growth for the rest of the world doesn’t do well.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/S_-tXjgYPlc/hqdefault.jpg
“Bowels Emptied! Women Molested!” German Media Reveals “Monstrous” CCTV Footage Of Refugee Pool Mayham
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-24/bowels-emptied-women-molested-german-media-reveals-monstrous-cctv-footage-refugee-po
Hmmm…. but where is the video …
They could have at least spliced in some images of brown skinned men and reused this:
Blaming the rape victim is Ok as long as they are white eh Paul?
You remind me of a cop who asks a rape victim if she enjoyed it.
I’m not the racist here — in case you hadn’t noticed….
Dear Finite Worlders
All the smart people are making their prediction for the coming year, about now. In order to balance all that wisdom, I would like to put some wild speculations about the long term on the table. But I will try to support them with some (maybe far fetched) evidence. As reference points, I will use Gail’s writings, Albert Bates’ last two blogposts, and the book What a Plant Knows.
*I basically buy into the scenario by Albert Bates (and also John Michael Greer) that we face a ‘long emergency’. Everything won’t collapse overnight, but we will never find a source of energy that is a drop-in replacement for fossil fuels.
*Albert refers to Tim Garrett’s model of civilization as a heat engine. I accept that model, for the most part. Which indicates that, as fossil energy declines, we face a decline of civilization. Thermodynamics will be extremely important to us.
(Note: In What a Plant Knows, Daniel Chamovitz explains how a plant balances the need to grow upward (opposite gravity) and the need to harvest sunlight. In the temperate zone, the sun is never directly overhead, so the plants will tend to grow toward the sun. Chamovitz suggests that the plant solves the problem using the vectors you probably studied in high-school physics. The plant will tend to pick an intermediate angle. I would add my speculation that there is a third element at work…the amount of nitrogen available to the plant. The plant’s height is probably a function of nitrogen. If my speculation about the nitrogen is correct, there are really three vectors. So, as a first approximation, we can use the ‘grow opposite gravity’ vector. As a second approximation, we can add the sun’s angle as another vector. As a third approximation, we can use all three vectors. Modelers generally try to develop a model which is as simple as possible, but not too simple.
I suggest that, over the long term, Garrett’s model is too simple. Bates describes some additional vectors, such as the commitment the world’s governments supposedly made in Paris. We can also speculate about the desire for a disconnection between energy consumption and civilization, while admitting that, if it is possible, it hasn’t happened as yet.)
*I predict that the world population will decline, but the survivors will lead pretty good lives.
(Note: Chamovitz describes the recent discoveries about epigenetics. Briefly, at any given time only a fairly small fraction of your DNA is being expressed (used to make proteins). The DNA expression is somewhat stereotyped…hunger probably activates many of the same genes over a period of many meals. But the genes being expressed in some situation can be shuffled in response to stress. If you experience severe hunger, the gene expression may change. If it does, your children will inherit the change. The genes involved are marked (e.g. methylated, for example) and the characteristic response by you and your children will be different from the characteristic response you were born with.
What I think is that the stressful times implied by Limits to Growth and Garrett’s model will change the DNA expression of those who survive. The changes will be in the direction of a tougher breed of human. The children of the survivors will inherit the new toughness.)
If the gene expression changes, then the shock of not living in the now-lost world will fade. People will get on with their lives and do what people have always done when times were a lot less easy than they are today.
*I predict that the response to the ‘long emergency’ will result in a more resilient band of surviving humans.
(Note: ‘Kovalchuk’s results were fascinating…Not only did the second generation of plants show increased genetic variation,…but they were also more tolerant to the various stresses.’)
Perhaps will stimulate your own thoughts. Or at least give you a laugh.
Don Stewart
PS The increased stress resistance is an excellent reason to save seeds from your plants…who knows if El Giganto Seed Company thought to stress them?
About the high stress resistance.. I was wondering what we have discussed here in Gails community, that in ordinary circumstances we have to keep our mouths shut about these issues presented by Gail. Unless we intentionally want a crazy and/or difficult-to-get-along ruins-every-dinner-party persons reputation.
There are all sorts of MDs, some are radiologists, some ortopedists, some surgeons, some pediatricians. But all pediatricians somewhat “feel” alike. So do the best ambulance MDs. When stress resistance must be of a certain degree to even keep functioning, there seem to be some common traits in those people. Now, I was just wondering if Gails blog helps to vent high stress, or is this community just “naturally” more stress resistant than the mass of the peoples, to analyze these issues and still keep functioning?
Well, nonetheless, pretty sure those alive in two generations will have a pretty high stress resistance naturally..
Van Kent
I think Kelly McGonigle’s book (or TED talk) on The Upside of Stress should be required reading (or viewing) for anyone planning to survive the next few decades.
Don Stewart
Don, “only the belief that harmuful stress kills, kills, not the stress itself however high that might be” priceless!
I haven´t read those studies, so, that was a good talk to view https://www.ted.com/talks/kelly_mcgonigal_how_to_make_stress_your_friend
Also the stress oxytocin connection and cooperation within communities was interesting.
Thanks Don!
Van Kent
I seldom read or hear anything that Deepak Chopra writes or says. But last evening I happened on something he said in a webinar about the role of dietary fat. He has apparently written a new book about our ‘extended genome’, meaning all the genes that make us function, including those in our micro-biome. His institute apparently does behavioral studies and takes gene samples and sends the samples to labs at all the right universities. He says that the genes being expressed change very rapidly in response to changes in behavior…diet, meditation, exercise, etc. All the usual ‘good health’ suspects.
If you combine what Kelly is saying with what Chopra’s research shows, you come out with something like this:
‘Sure, times are tough. But I have been preparing for tougher times, I know what to do, I have my emotional and physical responses under control, and I still have life and lovers and friends. And I know that I have lots of genetic helpers activated.’
Don Stewart
Don, I haven´t been much of a fan of Chopras. But viewing that talk, and seeing scientific evidence of mental preparedness resulting in significant statistical difference, that puts Chopra in new and different light.
Still, it would be nice to know how not to ruin a dinner party with doom-stuff 😉
“Please, lets do an stress exercise first, then I´ll tell you about the Dry Baltic Index” 🙂
Van Kent
Being flippant without meaning to be flippant.
Is your sweetie within reach? Can you catch her without a Baltic Dry Index?
Don Stewart
PS One of the things I have observed is how the simple pleasures in life become so overwhelmingly important when one is about to be hung at daybreak. Or…less distressingly:
‘Nobody ever thought on their deathbed…I really wish I had spent more time at the office.’
Van Kent,
don’t know if this might help a little bit:
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-01-10/neurobiology-mass-delusion
Tom Murphy thinks it seems that not all of us are ‘hardwired’ to get the message:
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2015/04/programmed-to-ignore/
My advice: never discuss doomstuff in public. If you can’t help and really want to talk about that with someone, try to select one person who seems to already have some clues, and then, if the person shows some interest, introduce the topic step by step, very carefully ; there are always unconnected dots, whose connection can cause unwanted reactions.
Van Kent and Stefeun
http://howtosavetheworld.ca/2016/01/25/less-than-enthusiastic-a-guest-post-by-paul-heft/
Don Stewart
Don, yup, its the meaningful human relations that define a human life. But, also the things you are, or were, really really good at. Or otherwise enjoyed doing.
I find memory patients remembering old accomplishments, like winning a running race or playing the violin really well at a wedding, or things like that.
Thanks Stefeun, that “Programmed to Ignore” pretty much confirms my findings that only the former CEOs or directors of major divisions, in friends and family, usually in their 70s now and retired, are the only ones with hard wiring to have an up to date conversation with, without some serious delusions. (But when any womenfolk walk in to the room, the subject matter changes immediately.)
Though there was this one guy at the university who had some reasearch about snake bites and roadkill, he was genuinely “original”. But other than that, yup, pretty rare to have a good conversation. Just wondering how many days in Post-BAU we must go before this hard wiring or programmed to ignore changes. Maybe it wont change at all?
ANALYSIS: When the global financial system nearly choked to death on too much debt, central banks decided to force-feed us more. Finally, the flaws in that thinking are being exposed.
Fans of the original 1977 movie Star Wars will know that it only took one proton torpedo, fired into a particular exhaust port, to blow the gargantuan Death Star to smithereens.
Well something like that torpedo has just been fired at central bankers – the people running what you might call the ‘Debt Star’, for debt is what it has produced at unprecedented rates in the past decade.
What makes this development so surprising, is it wasn’t a rebel fighter who pressed the fire button, but the Bank of International Settlements, via a new research paper.
• The optimists who said your shares were safe
• If there’s another GFC, Australia will feel it
• The tide’s falling for our biggest assets
The BIS, described by veteran journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard as “the temple of monetary orthodoxy in Switzerland”, has finally struck a blow for common sense – a human quality from which so many economists recoil.
The common-sense argument, which has been made by a number of real rebels for years now, is that economies with staggering levels of private debt are simply not efficient, productive places.
Australia’s Professor Steve Keen – now based in the UK – has been among the vanguard of that group.
His views are backed, he says, by “… a handful of rebel economists … going back to Irving Fisher and even earlier, and including modern non-mainstream economists like Stephanie Kelton (who now advises Bernie Sanders), and University of Southampton Professor Richard Werner. Oh, and a guy named Hyman Minsky too, whom the mainstream ignored until the 2008 crisis”.
Professor Keen became notorious in Australia in 2008 for suggesting house prices would correct downward by as much as 40 per cent in the longer term.
What most people missed behind those headlines, was that his argument had much more to do with the size of private debt stocks than the threat of a housing crash.
While it’s true that when mortgage credit bubbles burst, house prices fall – as they did dramatically in places such as California, Ireland and Spain during the early stages of the GFC – Professor Keen’s problem with spiralling levels of debt went much further.
He argues not only that huge levels of debt should not be created, but that debt should mainly be used to fund productive assets – assets that can actually generate a return to repay the debt.
For example, if I live in a $200,000 house and borrow $300,000 to build a factory, I will have created a productive asset that employs people and creates things of value.
n many developed nations, something quite different happened in the run-up to the GFC. That $200,000 house was bought and re-bought by people borrowing money at interest rates that did not reflect the true risk of the investment.
The result was a $500,000 house, no factory, and the near-collapse of the global financial system.
This example, though crude, is what the BIS has finally identified as a driver of economic underperformance around the world.
More http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/01/12/bombshell-destroy-debt-star-banking/
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of The Telegraph is a renown catastrophicist, usually not taken seriously..
I’ve followed AEP for years….. he swings between Pollyanna and Doomster……
Of course he takes his marching orders from an Editor who takes orders from the owners of the paper who take orders from the Elders….
AEP is a smart chap — I suspect his true position would lie in the Doom camp.
Thus I pay more attention to his doom-based articles — because he is far more convincing than when he is forced to write bullshit about how things are not so bad….
That is why I have followed him for years….. unfortunately most of what he writes is of no value — his ratio is probably 4 terrible to 1 good article….
I am wondering what you think of our host – Gail – if you think AEP is a renowned catastrophist?
Surely she is far more ‘right wing’ in terms of the catastrophe party?
I am of course the President of Catastrophe…. so I can imagine you would not take me seriously at all….
Tee hee……
King of Catastrophe, the most high and exalted master of catastrophe.
Ambrose is certainly in the business of producing click-baity headlines. William White (Chairman of the OECD’s review committee and former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements), who is quoted at length in the article is very far from a catastrophist though. He is one of the more sensible mainstream economists.
“”The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up. It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something. The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly. “
Good quote. William White understands at least part of the problem we are reaching.
Thanks! It seems like there are a bunch of other ways a person could come to the same conclusion.
Of course, stopping the growth in credit means the whole Ponzi Scheme falls over, and that is not a good outcome either. But I suppose that observation is beyond the BIS.
The BIS working paper on which this article is based can be found at this link: https://www.bis.org/publ/work534.pdf
“Of course, stopping the growth in credit means the whole Ponzi Scheme falls over, and that is not a good outcome either.”
Gail, you are an absolute master of understatement. Are you sure you’re not secretly English?
Norwegian background. A typical Norwegian joke is about a Norwegian man (Ole) saying that the loves his wife (Lena) so much that he once almost told her so.
My mother lives in a long term care facility. She will never tell people that she is getting tired and wants to go to bed. Instead, she starts occasionally glancing at her watch.
Dear Finite Worlders
Mention of Gail in Albert Bates’ blog
http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-paris-gravity-well-part-ii.html
Don Stewart
Thanks! I read the article. Some good points, some common misconceptions repeated by Bates. Nice he mentioned me.
North Sea Drilling at Record Low Spells End to Region’s Revival
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/north-sea-drilling-at-record-low-spells-end-to-region-s-revival-ijox9779
Aboard a Rig That Helps Power Britain
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/photo-essays/2015-12-22/aboard-a-rig-that-helps-power-britain
Good to see this enormous technological and human effort from time to time.
I think that this effort has to do with higher oil prices. Low oil prices will mean that existing infrastructure will need to be decommissioned. This has a significant cost to it, so the industry, instead of making a profit, makes significant losses on the project (or they just abandon the effort).
Exactly. On top of this it will make impact on the equipment manufacturers (platforms, drilling, all this stuff) and all other suppliers, leading to further headcount reductions and lower demand/credit repayment. Vicious cycle. UK is imploding. Like many other countries, unfortunately.
A survey released by accountancy firm Moore Stephens this week showed that the number of UK-based oil and gas companies folding jumped by more than 55% in 2015, with 28 firms entering insolvency, compared to 18 over the course of 2014.
The contrast between 2015, and 2010, when oil was on its way up from its last crash in 2008, is pretty stark. According to the research, just four oil and gas companies went under that year. Essentially, the number of oil companies going bust has increased by 600% in just five years.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/moore-stephens-research-28-oil-and-gas-companies-folded-in-2015-2016-1
Not terribly surprising. I wonder what 2016 will bring.
Thanks. Higher production in 2014 and 2015, thanks to $100+ price per barrel in recent past (mentioned in article), contributed to worldwide oil glut (my view).
Dear Finite Worlders
Usual warning: my experience is in small farm (5 acres) and gardening.
There has been some discussion here about perennial weeds and what to do about them. Here is a good article which describes the problem, whether you have a pasture covering many square miles or a kitchen garden:
http://deepgreenpermaculture.com/permaculture/permaculture-design-principles/8-accelerating-succession-and-evolution/
‘Perennial weeds regrow from their roots if cut above the ground and need to be dug out if you want to get rid of them quickly, but be aware if too much of the soil disturbance occurs, many annual weed seeds that are dormant in the soil will germinate and populate the disturbed area with annuals once again. Perennial weeds will eventually be shaded out by the forest plants and die off on their own in the long term, this is part of the natural cycle of forest succession. Woody perennial weeds are also a very good source of soil building material as the woody plant tissues contain the compound lignin, which decomposes to form the major constituent of humus which is the organic part of the soil.’
There is as much different advice about perennial weeds as there are gardeners, farmers, and ranchers. If you have perennial weed problems, I suggest listening to a wide variety of people with actual experience. If you are a Finite Worlder, then you will want to listen most carefully to those who are MAINTAINING their fields without resorting to herbicides.
The reason I underline MAINTAINING is that people I respect who are maintaining their property without herbicides sometimes plow or apply herbicides to control a riot of perennial weeds, initially. They may also resort to deep ripping to break up compaction, while aiming to avoid compaction in the future with no-till. Similarly, they may use excavators to re-carve the surface of the land to rehydrate it. All these activities are similar to ‘accumulating capital’. That is, you are taking substandard land and making it more fertile. I suggest you want to get these things done before fossil fuels disappear.
The article above is quite good at describing the natural process of succession. It is a little unrealistic, in my opinion, in describing a mature forest as ALWAYS what one is aiming at. If you looked at the Singing Frogs Farm video that I previously referenced (or which you can find with a google search), you will find that it is better described as ‘vegetable beds in a shrubby environment’. At least on the West Coast of the United States, the evidence I have seen suggests that this level of succession is highly favorable to humans and can be maintained without too much ‘fighting nature’. Oregon State does some webinars on ‘organic’ farming, and the evidence I have seen for similar landscapes in Oregon suggests that they are highly productive, don’t require much in the way of inputs, and are relatively easy to maintain. However, the Singing Frogs methods are very intensive, and require careful planning and capital such as unheated plastic greenhouses. If you don’t have the capital, you probably can’t compete financially since yields will be lower or labor higher, or both.
I also suggest the Quivira Coalition 2015 conference and the talk by Christine Jones, and especially the partially audible discussion between Elaine Ingham in the audience and Christine at the podium. Elaine’s doctoral dissertation 30 years ago found that there was a predictable change in the ratio of fungi to bacteria as one progressed from recently disturbed soil to grasslands to mature forests. This led Elaine to ‘prescribe’ fungal to bacterial ratios depending on what crops one intended to grow. Christine, who has had a lot of experience with grasslands in Australia, has found that more fungi is always good for grass. If the soil has a high fungal to bacterial ratio, then perennial weeds may be disadvantaged. Perennial weeds are low nutrient, so ranchers don’t like them. This suggests that, whether one is growing row crops, broad-field crops like wheat, grazing livestock, or tending a kitchen garden, using fungal friendly methods is always a good idea. When Christine talks about the wheat with a BRIX score of 25, that indicates to me a high fungal to bacterial ratio…which is not something you get with industrial agriculture.
Joel Salatin and several other graziers have done good work learning how to use grazing methods to control perennial weeds.
In the article, you see a ten year transition when aided by permaculture (or other biological farming) methods, compared to a 100 year transition when nature is left to its own devices. I suggest that the quick transition is what you see at Laughing Frogs Farm, it’s just stopping at the shrubby stage for the most part. The carving out of the vegetable beds among the shrubs is a ‘permaculture’ sort of design.
Don Stewart
Don Stewart, another very helpful call for action…hope our own Fast Eddy pays attention…
Oh, if I may add another suggestion…another strategy the Nearings used was to enclose their garden with a stone wall. All Fast Eddy needs to do is collect enough large size stones to surround the perimeter to the height he sees fit and dig below the frost line.
An easy method to construct the wall is using the slip form buildup process. The Nearing found the stone wall a impregnable barrier. Much better than a fence, wood or steel gauged wire to keep varmits, pests or rhizomes out. This may require a little planning for execution, such as, the critical path method (CPM). Again their is no fix it all solution like Roundup.
Jeffrey Brown still updates/maintains the output of his ELM (PObarrel.com) model that OPEC’s exports could last next ~20yrs, that’s theoretical envelope based on their internal consumption and depletion. Obviously meanwhile many factors might intervene, but I’d guess it’s pretty safe evaluation of the humanoid can kicking habit to expect nothing systemic serious before reaching ~65-80% mark of that projection, hence the mid or late 2020s could be the brake down area into way lower consumption and complexity patterns. Even though you might be living well before that in different world by many side/lower importance aspects, the most “important thing” being global power and money distribution hardly changes, only the pressure as we are closing on the threshold will continue to build up, powerful factions rearranging the figures on their board game etc.
Unless this graph changes substantially, and that’s likely no sooner than ~5yrs into the future, most likely no systemic crash, only can kicking and position games by major stakeholders, simply the world has become the symbiont/extension of the US system, we must wait for these import/export and crude vs. product curves to start moving wildly again. Chill out, and use the granted time to your advantage.
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/US_crude_oil_imports_and_production_to_Oct2015.jpg
Euan:”The US oil imports underpin trade imbalance and debt throughout the world that are in danger of toppling the finance system. The old US oil production peaked in 1971. They deployed thousands of rigs to try and reverse the decline without success. So they resorted to oil imports and imperialism. Only now with shale and fracking has a “solution” been found that is about to go into 5th reverse gear.”
http://euanmearns.com/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-crude-oil/
When you have a financial collapse, things do change substantially, quickly.
Perhaps I shall be more specific here, the idea of the above graph is simply to visualize in time why & how the global financial system holds together in present form as long as the petrodollar is being entrusted thanks to this “great story” of elevated fossil fuels production and curbed imports. As we all PO aware here expect things turning around in the near future with shale depletion, this story won’t hold anymore, despite any papering over attempts, hence near that point the higher propensity for your financial collapse event. But we are clearly not there yet, especially when flirting with slow-motion depression, so it can take 5-15yrs for major stakeholders to truly panic and evade supporting this current structure anymore, sort of allowing for this financial collapse to proceed..
Actually, I think petrodollar recycling is disappearing now with low oil prices. Saudi Arabia will likely become a seller of treasuries, instead of a buyer.
Very true, but for now we likely get hodge podge system of dying petrodollar with nascent swaps of currencies (barter of goods, yuan etc.), and this could muddy up the waters for next 5-15yrs, eye blip for history but significant time period on individual human level..
I consider Jeff Brown’s model to be only applicable pre-financial collapse, where financial collapse comes soon. After that, trade drops off rapidly, and size of countries gets smaller and smaller, as governments fail. Imports of any kind quickly become a thing of the past. All economies are necessarily local.
That’s what I’d subscribe to as well.
Perhaps the difference here is that you see:
…financial collapse.. -> complexity destruction/collapse
While I’m in the camp looking at the situation as follows:
..last drops of trust in the system must be worked through first.. -> complexity destruction/collapse
Couch grass
Couch grass or twitch grass (Elymus repens) is an old enemy for many gardeners. Its wiry, underground stems and creeping shoots pop up around garden plants and before long can take over a bed. As a perennial weed thorough killing or eradication of the roots is necessary.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/advice/profile?PID=283
Non-chemical control
First consider non-chemical control options;
In uncultivated areas, forking out is possible in lighter soils, as much of the underground stem system is fairly shallow, but it is easy to leave behind small sections of rhizome in the ground. These quickly regrow and need to be removed before they form a new network of rhizomes.
In cultivated areas, hand weeding can be done where there are small isolated infestations among herbaceous perennials. This is best done in early spring when the plants will soon re-establish and around bulbs as the bulb foliage is dying, but is not practical around trees, shrubs and roses where roots may be considerably damaged.
Strip off infested lawns and dig out any remaining couch grass roots before re-turfing.
Chemical controls
Glyphosate
Glyphosate-based weedkillers (e.g. Scotts Roundup Ultra 3000, Scotts Tumbleweed, Bayer Tough Rootkill, Bayer Garden Super Strength Weedkiller or Doff Maxi Strength Glyphosate Weedkiller; or for spot treatment use Scotts Roundup Gel) are very effective and, if correctly applied, should kill even heavy infestations of couch in one application.
As these products are not selective, care is needed to prevent spray landing or drifting on to other cultivated plants and causing damage. Protect them with polythene while spraying and remove only once it has dried. Follow this advice for spraying:
In spring, spray when the new growth has reached a minimum 10-15cm (4-6in) high with each shoot having not less than four or five new leaves. Spraying at this stage of growth, in mild conditions when growth is active, will usually be very effective
If attempting control in the autumn, the best period for spraying is early October to mid-November, but before the first frosts. Try to avoid drought conditions, as results can be disappointing
In heavily couch-infested areas it may be better to dig up cultivated plants, carefully tease out any couch grass roots that may be in the rootball and relocate them temporarily while treatment takes place. It is unnecessary to remove bulbs that have died back where no part of the plant is visible above ground
Couch grass should die back within three weeks; but treat any regrowth as soon as possible.
Do not cultivate the soil until the grass has been completely killed
Lawn weedkillers
There are no selective lawn weedkillers that will kill couch grass while leaving the rest of the grass unharmed.
Infested lawns should therefore be sprayed off with glyphosate until the grasses are fully killed.
Only then can the area be dug over and prepared for re-sowing or re-turfing.
So organic people …. there you have it ….. we have 200sqm of beds…. in an area that is roughly an acre of total space…. you can dig this stuff till your hands bleed —- but it is not possible to get every last bit of it…. nowhere near possible ….. and you leave a small piece anywhere in there — it will grab hold and spread like wildfire….. it is one of the fastest growing weeds in Mother Nature’s arsenal ….
MONSANTO MONSANTO —- how I luv ya how I luv ya … my dear Monsanto…..
I am sure you have seen articles seeming to connect glyphosate to autism and cancer. For example, this one. http://jeffreydachmd.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Genetically-engineered-crops-glyphosate-deterioration-health-United-States-Swanson-J-Organic-Systems-2014.pdf
I knew about cancer but not this long list of diseases. This is bad stuff. To bad the government does not protect the common good.
“To bad the government does not protect the common good.”
‘We The People’ have been relegated to secondary status behind the corps and their lobbyists.
But aren’t they protecting the common good?
We need an ever increasing supply of cheap food — just as we need an every increasing supply of cheap oil.
Not everyone can afford to shop in Whole Foods …. and even if they could — it is simply not possible to produce the amount of food necessary to feed the world using organic methods.
Make no mistake. The Green Revolution – which includes Monsanto — was a giant kick of the can …
If not for these methods of producing food — Thomas Malthus would been right many years ago…
I can appreciate how people have a distaste for these conclusions —- but if you strip off your passions about and think about this …
It is impossible not to admit — we need chemically produced food — otherwise BAU collapses — and we starve….
We are backed into a corner in so many ways…. with no way out…..
I am fully aware of these articles …
The thing is…
If you ate a meal in a restaurant – or ate anything bought food from a grocery store – you have consumed this chemical — it is extensively used http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-glyphosate-market-is-expected-to-reach-usd-879-billion-by-2019-transparency-market-research-244861481.html
Add in the fact that pretty much everyone around here is using such chemicals to kill gorse and other types of thistle …. in fact they use Tordon — which is truly nasty stuff….
So there is no avoiding it — and the multitude of other chemicals that are in our food. This stuff is everywhere….
Remember how it was healthy to eat fish? Not anymore — we are told to limit fish intake — because our oceans are polluted with god knows what?
I read a book about the Italian mafia some years ago — they have fronting companies bidding on disposal contracts for low to medium level nuclear waste — they always win the bids…
Because their disposal methods include dumping the waste into the ocean….
That’s only one of many toxic things going into the seas — throw in billions of tonnes of mercury from the burning of coal and then you can understand why we are warned not to eat much seafood.
Of course I would rather not use these products — but I am not particularly concerned that selectively dabbing the shoots of twitch and killing the entire root system by doing so is going to result in cancer…
Farmers are not selectively dabbing — they are spraying to high hell…. like I said — I see the signs warning of horticulture spraying in progress — I see the ‘farmers’ kitted out in their protection suits hauling the massive fumigation machines behind their tractors with the vats of chemicals ….
Let’s not fool ourselves…. we are all eating these chemicals.
And cancer — well…. its the price we pay to be able to feed 7.5B people….
The alternative is starvation — and collapse of BAU.
Cheaply produced food is right up there with cheaply produced oil in terms of importance to keeping the system operating.
Organic farming is like solar panels —- far too expensive…..
Why are you so concerned about what others are doing? Boy, you are all over the map on that rant here and talk about misplaced association in reality fabrication…it was textbook!
Pre World War II agriculture was largely what you call organic, Fast Eddy…that is not too far back in the past….so don’t cry about it’s just impossible to do. Thought you were prepping for life without these chemicals? Don’t see the point of what you are doing if you cave in and give up so easily. Organic is not too expensive….that is just blantly propaganda. Sorry, Charlie, it just not so. But if you need to rationalize to take the easy way out, so be it.
“Organic is not too expensive….that is just blantly propaganda.”
I think a better statement is, “food grown without the use of industrial chemicals, petroleum powered machinery, and electric irrigation is very labour intensive”.
Of course, since most people buy food, it would be extremely expensive for them to buy food that not only meets the Certified Organic standards, but also met Fast Eddy’s No BAU certification.
I am told – by farmers – that farming is very labour unintensive — because of tractors and other machinery — because you don’t need anyone to pick out weeds and bugs due to sprays….
In fact a single person can manage very large acreage with the help of BAU…
Now imagine if you did not have tractors and chemicals and you had to employ people to do all this work…. what’s the minimum wage in the US… Canada…. Europe…. Australia…. etc….
That 5 bucks apple would be the price when they are in the mark down bin….
We know economic growth and population growth was extremely slow before fossil fuels. This is what happens when growing food is very labor intensive. Also, total population was much lower than today.
“Pre World War II agriculture was largely what you call organic, Fast Eddy…that is not too far back in the past…”
By 1930, the US of A Farmers had nearly destroyed their topsoil; you may have heard of the Dust Bowl.
So, the world was able to feed ~2 billion people pre-WW2, but using means that was destroying the soil. Now, we are feeding >7 billion people, and the soil is in much worse shape than in 1930. The aquifers are being bled dry; the Central Valley is sinking over a foot per year and the water is full of natural uranium from sucking so deep.
So, it is not just about switching back to 100 year+ old techniques, but also trying to repair the soil, while trying to survive the starving zombie hordes that likely cannot all be fed.
Matthew Krajcik
Anyone switching back to hundred year old industrial farming techniques is simply a fool. We now have a much better scientific understanding of how to farm than anyone had a hundred years ago.
One problem is that the legal term ‘organic’ is simply a list of ‘thou shalt nots’. It does not require the farmer to do ANYTHING that we might consider ‘excellent farming’. Some modern farmers who are certified ‘organic’ are model examples of sustainable agriculture, but many are certified ‘organic’ who are not such models.
Many of the best farmers that I know do not want an ‘organic’ certification. For some of them, it is just another way to get entangled in government sponsored red tape. For others, it is too expensive to comply with all the bookkeeping. Since the government now owns the ‘organic’ label, one farmer I know calls himself a ‘more-ganic’ farmer.
Small farmers who are selling direct to customers do not need the ‘organic’ label. They are selling a premium product, and labeling it ‘organic’ is worth nothing to them. Large scale farmers who are selling through complex distribution channels need the ‘organic’ label because it is the only way they can get paid for not using the pesticides and herbicides.
A local dairy switched to the Organic Valley co-op. Their revenue went up because ‘organic’ milk brings a higher price since it doesn’t contain all the hormones and antibiotics and the animals are not sick. And since the animals are not sick, the farm cut their veterinary visits from one a week to one a year. The farm has increased its earnings.
Don Stewart
I know lots of farmers like that too!
When they realize how difficult it is to get organic certification (because it really is very very hard and very very expensive and very very risky to go truly organic) they usually put up a sign saying ‘spray free’
In fact on the way back from Farmlands where I was buying additional chemicals I stopped in at the spray free cherry stand …. of course I washed them thoroughly when I got home….
Because I know that if you do not have organic certification — you are probably using something that I ideally would be washing off the food before eating it
And I know that unless there is strict policing of organic food —- people will cheat … spray free is meaningless — I know people who sell spray free citrus — they have told me they use Round Up from time to time …. they complain that they don’t get any more for their fruit than if they sprayed it extensively….
Go figure…..
Sure Matt, I’ve heard of the Dust Bowl, nearly everyone has, but YOU need to understand what caused it first. I suggest you view PBS Ken Burns production of the Dust Bowl, the whole program. Here is a bit on you tube. Mainly bad land management policies.
You know agriculture is labor intensive…true…right now we have indentured servants called migrant workers that preform the task with slave wages.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o7Uwg8BT6qQ
As far as Don Stewart remark, my point was growing food and caring for the land properly is possible without petrol chemical inputs. I did not suggest we should go back.
Folks get over it.
“Mainly bad land management policies.”
My, my. Look how much we have learned and grown. There is no way that could possibly happen again. I’m sure everything will work out fine in California, no need to worry.
“right now we have indentured servants called migrant workers that preform the task with slave wages.”
Assisted by modern industrial equipment, fertilizers and sprays. Supplemented with underground aquifers.
“my point was growing food and caring for the land properly is possible without petrol chemical inputs. I did not suggest we should go back.”
Then why bother mentioning pre-WW2? If/When BAU collapses, once the land is restored it could sustainably feed 10 percent of current population. How much will crop yields be during the first three years without machinery, fertilizers and sprays?
So, then the question is, if you know that 95% of the population cannot be fed, how do you keep operating your farm during the die-off?
All good points… except in Delusistan where using facts and logic are seen as a sign of mental deficiency ….
‘Hi Mary – I heard Bobby is going to college’ frowning….
‘Yes Joan — he was born that way I guess … I knew I wasn’t drinking enough Red Bull in the 3rd trimester… we are so disappointed’
‘What is he studying – something useless I hope – basket weaving perhaps — or maybe he is on a football scholarship?’
‘Oh no – nothing like that — he’s taking engineering’
‘It’s that bad is it?’
‘Yes – it is so sad to see this — he really is a very nice boy’
Matt K obviously did not even take the time to watch the Ken Burns video clip on the Dust Bowl and Fast Eddy is obviously just an antagonist seeking attention. Both fall in the troll category of blog commentary…time to ignore and move on.
“Matt K obviously did not even take the time to watch the Ken Burns video clip on the Dust Bowl ”
What clip? You forgot to provide a link if there was a short clip. Otherwise, you have to buy it or use a TV guide and wait for it to come on cable.
Do you really think sucking a foot of ground out of the aquifer each year growing a large portion of the food in a desert is going to work out differently this time?
Or in other words — when faced with facts and logic that are immutable — scream insults — block ears and repeat ‘Nah nah nah nah’ —- and run and hide….
Now what kind of advice is that to give to the people who are new to FW …. what will they think?
Vince — I have just returned from Farmlands — so I have spoken to the big boys — and I have spoken to the small boys — a leading purveryor of organic solutions…
And Farmlands told me the exact same things as the small boys — you will never get rid of twitch – pulling it can actually make the problem worse because you can spread it.
Spray is the only way. Even then it will never completely disappear. It will control it – but it will not wipe it out.
The only way to make it completely disappear would be to take the entire area down 30cm or so — then spray it to high hell — then hope you got it all – and that there is no more of it outside in the paddock that can reinfect.
You are most welcome to come and spend a month pulling this out — I guarantee you at the end of it you will be begging me to spray it….
So that ends the discussion of twitch.
Re: Farming pre WW2.
‘The original strategy was manual removal including ploughing, which can cut the roots of weeds’ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weed_control
Farmers were using machinery many many decades before WW2 — tractors, steel shovels, threshers, plows to handle the hard labour and the weed control …
None of these will be available going forward.
So what did farmers do about weeds pre tractors and pre Round Up?
You got it — they did EXACTLY what I have been doing — pulling them out by hand. Day after day after day after day ….. no wonder farmers were so happy to welcome in the industrial revolution … and no wonder they have embraced Monsanto…
(As we know course they would have also used bull whips to force slaves to pull the weeds out by hand)
And that is the point I am trying to make — which you seem unable to comprehend — I have no desire to attempt to live like a farmer from the 1700’s…
I like electricity – and chain saws — and my truck — and my power tools — I love my chain saw and weed wacker — and I like being able to drive down the road to replace a shovel if it breaks… I like my fridge and my stove — and the fact that when my garden is not in season – or a crop fails — I can buy food at a grocery story
What you do not seem to get is that when BAU goes — this all goes — you are up there in Delusistan watching your bullshit gardening shows — and picking up the weekly organic rag — and believing that’s what things will be like post collapse.
You haven’t got a clue…. you really don’t
When are you going to try to split those 5 trees? I suppose you believe that you will still be able to run your chain saw so no need to take me up on this ….. like I said — you are living in Delusistan….
As for organics not costing much — try purchasing all your food from a certified organic shop. Check out how much higher your bill is
50 million people in the US are on food stamps — hmmm…. does Wholefoods accept food stamps? Wonder what you’d get there with a 100 bucks of food stamps…. enough food for one person for 2 days maybe?
Billions of people earn 2 bucks a day….. can they afford organic food?
Now let’s imagine a koombaya world — where Monsanto is banned — and everything is grown using certified organic methods….
But first let’s familiarize ourselves with the Green Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution
Let’s look at just a single example of what impact the GR had on food:
In 1960, the Government of the Republic of the Philippines with the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation established IRRI. A rice crossing between Dee-Geo-woo-gen and Peta was done at IRRI in 1962. In 1966, one of the breeding lines became a new cultivar, IR8.[11] IR8 required the use of fertilizers and pesticides, but produced substantially higher yields than the traditional cultivars.
Annual rice production in the Philippines increased from 3.7 to 7.7 million tons in two decades.[12] The switch to IR8 rice made the Philippines a rice exporter for the first time in the 20th century
Let’s return to Koombaya land – hang on a sec — I need to smash my head into the brick wall a few times to take my IQ down to a level where I can imagine what it is like to live in Delusistan….
……………………………… SMASH……. CRASH………………….BASH……….
Ok – I’ve just concussed myself ….. let us start….
So we revert to organic growing (which is not actually possible because the soil is ruined but hey – it’s Koombayaland – where anything is possible)….
The Philippines…. lovely place — Palawan is my favourite part….
Look at all those people who have been added since the Green Revolution — WOW!!!
http://www.data360.org/temp/dsg216_500_350.jpg
We are looking at 5x the population now.
Reverting back to organic methods we slash the supply of rice by nearly 60%.
Remember that in 1960 the Philippines had to import rice — and they only had 20 million people.
Now there are 100 million people.
What do you think is going to happen to the price of rice?
Oh yes of course in Delusistan physics and math and economics don’t apply ….
Does Solar Jesus make an appearance and magically turn 3 million tonnes of rice into 7?
I’ll leave this with you — feel free to re-read it a few times…. sometimes even simple things take a bit of time to sink in….
Fast Eddy, if 90% of us disappear when BAU ends…how much food do we need to grow?
Also, petrol chemicals ag inputs largely took off after WWII. As far as your twitch grass problem….hmmmm…do what you feel comfortable doing….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sVS90lQHQ2M
I got to laugh!
“Fast Eddy, if 90% of us disappear when BAU ends…how much food do we need to grow?”
Well, how quickly do you get that 90% attrition? If you’re lucky, you are stocked up and BAU collapses in the middle of a harsh winter. By spring, the problem has mostly worked itself out.
Unless, of course, you get waves of people migrating in from the more tropical and temperate regions afterwards. Then, you have the outbreaks of disease as the system falls apart and malnourished people are more adversely affected by illnesses that today are just a nuisance.
FE your comment is simply preposterous, e.g. thresher (draft animal powered) design can be “easily copied” from EXISTING vintage example using wood and various scrap parts of the oil era, that’s what the Amish or DIYers generally do now and will continue.. Similar for other pre existing tools, obviously the arts of the crafts are now possessed only by tiny minority, so there would be a learning/adoption curve, meantime void filled up by malnutrition/depopulation to large degree and on the other hand survivors doing basic stuff like potatoes/rice/beans etc. This would stabilize after several decades/generations on some unknown level, lets speculate give or take 1650-1850 technology + applied core knowledge of biologic systems from our era.. Yes, most of the people would return to the land, there’s nothing bad about it, just different paradigm with different values in life, incl. coping with disease and death..
You have taken the bait superbly….
You will notice my rather long story about the future —- where the chief agrees that we should continue to try to lead THE GOOD LIFE…. that we should pick up exactly where we left off in the 1800’s when deforestation was already a huge problem because we were taking down the forests to make charcoal…
And you’ve essentially said that this is exactly what is going to happen. We’ll be on the road to Industrial Revolution Two…. powered by trees…..
Easter Island here we come!
How many draft animals do we have today? How many tools could we make without cutting down too many trees? How would we make it through the transition time?
Matthew, Seems you must be new here and have not read much previous articles and comments of the past. It’s been acknowledged around half or one billion human survivors will make it through the bottleneck. That figure was directed to Fast Eddy and not the general reading audience. Fast Eddy likes to agitate and stir the pot, it is a release for him and probably makes things tolerable around others in his household. Seems Living the Good Life Down Under ain’t so easy….just a point the Nearings never claimed it was, just the opposite and I suppose that is why they selected that title and theme for the book(s).
As Scott Nearing like to quote Robert Louis Stevenson
‘To travel hopefully is better than to arrive, and the true measure of success is the labor”
Our generation of the Power Age can’t identify with that outlook.
My grandfather had a similar work ethic, always busy, even painting his house on a ladder in his 90’s, tending the garden, making fresh daily soup, walking to store, fixing and repairing just about everything…not replacing with new stuff (even his own shoes).
He was born when stuff was difficult to purchase, even if you could find it. You made due, and gone without.
Remember some time ago a refugee from Vietnam, a boat escapee, that took a welding metal training vocational program here in the US. Said to me “Everything here in the United States is money, not on Vietnam…no money…” As we were sawing a huge 24 inch metal pipe with an electric rig…”in Vietnam we do everything by hand, would take DAYS to saw this pipe there, here minutes”
My point is AFTER BAU we ALL will facing that future of Vietnam and like spoiiled children are whining/crying about it…do I need to name any names?
That is part of the figure….most propably won’t be able or willing to adapt.
Fast Eddy is finding that out right now.
“My point is AFTER BAU we ALL will facing that future of Vietnam and like spoiiled children are whining/crying about it…”
You think hard work is the problem? The problem is having to kill off thousands of people to hold on to a patch of dirt, or starve to death, or resort to eating long pork until the population is down to the half billion or so.
I think more people are able to adapt to hard labour then adapt to having warlords and lynch mobs and being in a militia and having to triage and perhaps euthanize your own family and neighbours.
‘It’s been acknowledged around half or one billion human survivors will make it through the bottleneck.’
I’ve been here for some years now — and I do not recall anyone acknowledging such a figure.
I most definitely do not — I see this as an extinction event.
The expense is the problem. This is why prior civilizations had so much difficulty.
Gail, the prime example that comes to ignite BAU is from the motion picture
“There Will Be Blood”, starring Daniel Day Lewis and the difficult enterprise to finance the projects to extract the oil finds.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UdddIJd3bLc
Anyone taking over the oil projects will have as difficult time extracting oil cheaply as the original owners, I expect.
More on the Ray Dalio interview discussing a likely Depression http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/23/davos-dalio-economic-deflationary-depression/
Sorkin and Quick, the CNBC interviewers, asked him what individual investors should do to protect themselves. His discomfort with the question was all but palpable. Diversification among broad asset classes was mentioned. But things really got weird when he cited self-help guru Tony Robbins, who has recently discovered finance, as having things to say. Ray Dalio citing Tony Robbins is like Albert Einstein suggesting that we consult Minnie Mouse for an explication of what he meant by the impact of gravitational forces on the time space continuum.
Now that…. is FUNNY!
or, they could just lower taxes for oil companies and, consistently with this, lower the social welfare programs which are kept up by oil revenue. you never consider the possibility of change in both rhetoric and action on the side of governments.
That would pile on further deflationary pressures…
Because cutting programmes means jobs go… government departments buy less of everything…
Government spending is a significant component of GDP — slash spending and you just make the problem worse
Very good summary!
On point 7, let’s look at Venezuela
IMF:
22/1/2016
In Venezuela, longstanding policy distortions and fiscal imbalances were already having a deleterious effect on the economy before the collapse in oil prices. These problems worsened as falling oil prices triggered an economic crisis, with an expected fall in output of almost 18 percent over 2015 and 2016 (the third sharpest decline in the world). A lack of hard currency has led to scarcity of intermediate goods and to widespread shortages of essential goods—including food—exacting a tragic toll. Prices continue to spiral out of control, and we expect inflation to rise to 720 percent this year, from a world-high inflation of about 275 percent in 2015.
http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2016/01/22/latin-america-and-the-caribbean-in-2016-adjusting-to-a-harsher-reality/
I have been busy debunking the misinformation by the media:
21/1/2016
The myth of US self-sufficiency in crude oil
http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-myth-of-us-self-sufficiency-in-crude-oil
And read this, in the Sydney Morning Herald:
23/1/2016
“But lower oil prices are usually a good thing, aren’t they? The cheaper the fuel, the cheaper the cost of the production. Extremely low oil prices ought to encourage global growth. And global growth is what we need right now.”
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/five-reasons-we-are-not-heading-for-recession-20160121-gmbjcv.html
I’m not saying I have all the answers, I never have. I have posted my views many times, no need to keep on repeating it over and over.
Clearly diminishing returns in the doomer commentary now. But, things are interesting at least.
What if?
MSM is arriving at reality!
A survey of fuses:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/opinion/what-if.html?_r=1
Saludos
el mar
Excellent! Tom Friedman asks, “What if” a bunch of eras are ending all at once–end of $100 oil, and many other things.
Harry dent is also talking about cycles. His research is around demographics. In particular today the baby boomers are retiring in the USA at 10,000 per day but it’s going on in most countries. In the US 77% of the wealth is in the hands of boomers and their spending pattern is a deal less that before they retire. He says this deflation cannot end before about 2022 as the echo boomers [millennials] are too burdened by debt and low job opportunities to ever replace the boomers.
He talks about several cycles all coinciding at this time. You’ll find him on “Boom and Bust”
Ya, a bunch of eras…. including the Era of Industrialization… the Era of Civilization…. and last but not least …. the Era of Man…..
if peak oil isn’t true why or a big coming problem why the move into the artic? interesting article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-world-has-discovered-a-1-trillion-ocean
Jerry, why the big retreats from the Arctic by the major Oil companies?
I’ve posted many articles here like this one:
Shell has spent about $7bn on exploration in the waters off Alaska so far and said it could take a hit of up to $4.1bn for pulling out of the Chukchi Sea for the “foreseeable future”.
The unsuccessful campaign is Shell’s second major setback in the Arctic after it interrupted exploration for three years in 2012 when an enormous drilling rig broke free and grounded.
Environmental campaigners and shareholders have also pressured Shell to cease Arctic drilling due to oil spill concerns.
Shell’s abandonment of Arctic drilling came just six weeks after the US government granted the company final clearance for its campaign.
“The entire episode has been a very costly error for the company both financially and reputationally,” said analysts at Deutsche Bank, who estimate the Shell’s Arctic exploration project could cost the company about $9bn.
The decision is also the latest in a series of setbacks for projects in the Arctic trying to find oil and gas deposits estimated at 20 per cent of the world’s undiscovered resources.
Earlier this year, Norway’s Statoil postponed its Arctic Johan Castberg project again and in 2012 Russia’s Gazprom, together with Total and Statoil, scrapped the Shtokman gas project in the Arctic Barents Sea.
http://eandt.theiet.org/news/2015/sep/shell-arctic.cfm
Your link, Jerry, stated the Arctic is melting faster than any other place in the world, suppose global warming is just a liberal hoax!
global warming? maybe powers that be are deliberately creating it to get to the resources or what if….
“Therefore this is what the Sovereign Lord says: In my wrath I will unleash a violent wind, and in my anger hailstones and torrents of rain will fall with destructive fury.” Ezekiel 13:13
In the 6th Century BC the nation of Israel apparently learned this quite abruptly as she was carried off to Babylon!
consider these words to….
“See the storm of the Lords will burst out in wrath, a whirlwind swirling down on the heads of the wicked. the anger of the Lord will not turn back until He fully accomplishes the purposes of his heart. In days to come you will fully understand this.” Jeremiah 23:19
I read that scientists ‘don’t understand certain abrupt meteorological events that pop up now and then.”
Perhaps the answer can indeed be found in the pages and history of the biblical record?
Wow, wouldn’t that be something if proved true beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Myself I think its the Heffalumps. Woozles too but mostly the Heffalumps
Since we’re getting into p-seudo-science, try this. John Wyndham, an English author, wrote “The Day of the Triffids”, about genet1cally altered plants that could walk and kill and eventually took over the Earth. Another of his novels, “The Kraken Wakes” (also known as “Out of the Deeps”, describes an al1en race attacking Earth. Only their craft are seen, which rise up from the depths – much like USOs (unidentified submerged objects) nowadays. It is surmised that they come from a water world, because they use their technology to melt the ice at Earth’s poles and flood the world.
Ivan T Sanderson, biologist and ex-military man (British Naval Intelligence) was the first to delve into USOs. He theorised that “the Men in Black”, who are often described as being short of breath, showed symptoms of “the bends” and surmised that they may be an advanced humanoid species living under the oceans and responsible for the USOs! He also theorised that there was a global technological civilisation (though presumably not as densely populated as ours) before the Ice Age (brought low by that event), and that the Bermuda Triangle may be caused by an ancient power plant under the ocean that somehow warps time and space! To back up his ancient civilisation the-ory, he points to the vimanas in the ancient Indian myths: air and space ships that used mercury as fuel and deployed radar, lasers, invisibility shields, and “the arrow of unconsciousness” – and possibly even nuclear bombs. And google the glass desert of Libya for a supposedly nuclear battle site. Some of the individual (!) cut stones in some Latin American site (Cuza? Machu Picchu?) apparently weigh up to 2000 tons. Yet our normal modern machinery (cranes) cannot move such weights – with the exception of NASA transporting its rockets.
Then there’s Bimini – could it turn out to be the site of the fabled Atlantis? I don’t know about any of this, but there are certainly plenty of ancient mysteries that remain unsolved. But probably future generations will regard us as THEIR equivalent of Atlantis.
“Glickman’s “hard information” refers to a moment at the end of last summer’s growing season when the crop circles turned away from the abstract. On August 14, an enigmatic human face, expertly executed in halftones, turned up next to a huge radio transmitter in Chilbotin, England. A few days later, a glyph appeared that many croppies believe to be an alien response to a SETI radio transmission sent into space almost 30 years ago. Formed out of expertly twisted wheat, the pattern shows a strand of DNA made with silicon instead of phosphorous, a transmission device of unknown design, an alternate solar system, and an extraterrestrial with a wide head.”
“One thing is for sure: The formation proves beyond a doubt that the life form responsible for it has a super-evolved sense of humor. In the words of Seth Shostak, senior astronomer of the SETI Institute, it’s good fun and a nice example of grain graffiti -but not worth taking seriously. “If aliens wanted to communicate with us, why would they use such a low bandwidth method?” he asks. Why not just leave an Encyclopedia Galactica on our doorstep? He also noted that SETI’s original signal was aimed at the star cluster M13, which means it, will not reach its target for 24,972 more years. The Institute he says “has no interest in investigating the phenomenon further.”
GOT THE MESSAGE?
In 1974, an encoded radio transmission was fired into deep space — the so-called Arecibo message. Its contents included the numerals 1 through 10, the atomic numbers of elements important to human life, a depiction of the physical structure of DNA, our solar system, a human figure, and the radio dish used to send the message. Three decades later, a crop circle in an English field appeared to reply — with some interesting amendments (see below).
Silicon (atomic number 14) added to list of life giving elements
An altered strand of DNA
A new population value: 21.3 billion
An altered solar system
A picture of a big-headed humanoid, who stands 3 feet, 4 inches tall
A completely different transmitter
Daniel Pinchbeck http://archive.wired.com/wired/archive/10.08/crop.html
Go here for the picture http://www.mightycompanions.org/cropcircles/wired/page4.html
My what interesting days we are living in
“It is surmised that they come from a water world, because they use their technology to melt the ice at Earth’s poles and flood the world.”
This sounds familiar, where have I seen something like this … oh, right, watching cartoons with children:
Plankton Invasion!
Nice work there MJ. I appreciate your posts. Your pretty grounded and your posts proliferate that. It helps.
Without very much higher prices, none of the things listed are worth anything.
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Mario Draghi denies that ECB bazooka is empty amid fears QE is turning toxic
‘The side effects of the QE medicine are getting stronger: the curative effects are getting weaker’, warns UBS chief Axel Weber
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12114859/Mario-Draghi-denies-that-ECB-bazooka-is-empty.html
Mr Draghi said a mix of monetary stimulus, cheap oil, and the end of fiscal austerity was finally powering a lasting pick-up in European growth. “All these drivers should ensure a continuation of the recovery. I don’t think there is any reason to think things have changed,” he said.
How does he say that without laughing… or crying….
The markets react only to central bank and government stimulus today… soon they will be the entire market. The Fed has today treasuries worth $2.46 trillion on its balance sheet. At some point the governments and the central banks will be forced to take control of the entire economy to avoid a total collapse of our society. A commando economy under a dictatorship will take over and the police and the military will ensure some kind of security… from the masses.
BAU has far too many moving parts to survive a command economy…
Our problems are complex — but ultimately relate to the fact that we have plucked the low hanging fruit — we are out of cheap to extract oil.
We certainly cannot command oil to come out of the ground.
In order to extract oil we need a fully functioning economy — it most definitely cannot be extracted when BAU has collapsed.
If that were the case then why does BAU have to collapse at all?
Why doesn’t the Fed simply step in now and just keep the expensive to extract oil flowing?
I’m sure the government will do exactly that. We “eat oil” so it’s value is infinite, the $ cost immaterial. And yes, it will have to be a command economy. The only exception being if the government doesn’t have any forward plans, and there’s no sign of that!
Maybe the PTB have plans and so survivors can look forward to a life of servitude, or death.
The value people have to pay for the whole chain of supply needed to extract, refine, and ship oil products does not go away, however, if the extraction process is actually to continue. There is no way people can pay enough for it.
Sorry, Gail. You are in a different paradigm, today’s one. My comment is addressed to a future paradigm when we the people are trying to keep going in a new economic reality. The crossovers like oil will have to be looked at differently from how we see them now. The consensus seems to be there will always be oil, and it will be required to keep producing food etc as it does now. In todays world oil is squeezed between high cost production and too expensive to buy. This quandary can be resolved by governments setting the price to solve both sides, via coupons and fiat money manipulation. Today we see how government spending goes by comparing it to tax revenues, which is a book keeping operation. This will be abandoned as useless. Already federal governments do not use tax dollars to pay for their spending, not even one cent. The Central Bank is empowered by Treasury to pay for whatever is dictated or required and it simply marks up amounts in the reserve accounts kept in the bank. So when Oil needs to be $100/barrel, producers get that amount for it so they can pay down the line. Purchasers can only pay $40 say, so thats how much they actually have to pay. No record is kept of the difference as it doesn’t have to be found.
It’s tantamount to money being worth different values at the same time. The government absorbs the differences as it, now in a command economy, sets the prices. It can do so now in fact in theory but it’s not in full control of markets etc. and other ways of establishing value.
It’s a way of managing the future downhill slide of the economy , but as I said the government has to have a plan shovel ready.
No way. This makes no sense.
China charges customers a higher price for gasoline than the world market price. The difference goes to refiners. But you claim something very different. This is not possible.
Sure, in todays terms it does sound very strange. But in the future money will be treated differently to today. I am suggesting one way it can work around solving the “needs” versus “scarcity” problem.
If we want to eat in this future time , as FE states, we need oil. Governments cannot allow oil to stop coming just because it’s uneconomic in price terms. The government can do lots of things with money the way it’s already set up. I see a big hole in your understanding of how money works, but when you do try to ‘get’ it you will see what I write is not fiction. You don’t have to be versed in economics to understand. In fact being versed in mainstream economics is a passport to not understanding.
I see a big hole in your understanding of how governments work. Governments need energy to operate. They cannot last very long. You ascribe a great deal more “power” to governments than they already have.
There are reports that runs on Italian banks have begun. I can’t get this site to load, but it seems to have this story. http://buda.li/wSroX
That bank, Monte di Piasche di Siena is If I recall the world’s oldest bank dating back into the 1400’s’. It has had it’s share of odd deals on its books, so maybe the run is a specific event. I lived in Italy for 11 years through the 1970’s.
As to Governments, it’s hard to guess how competent or incompetent they can be, but in wartime, which is analogous to the future situation we will face , they might step up to the plate. It worked before. As to energy, they’ll just take it. Otherwise there will be no law, just chaos.
What are you imagining we do instead?
According to today’s headline on the WSJ, Italy Scrambles to Resuscitate Banks . The banking system is “highly-fragmented and overextended.” Many banks don’t make enough money to write off the bad loans. In total, 16.7% of Italy’s loans are non-performing. That compares to 5.6% for the EU in total. Banca Populare Di Vicenze has 24.1% non-performing loans.
It will be interesting to see how Italy will fix the situation. They can’t print more money.
http://www.examiner.com/article/italy-bank-runs-could-be-the-northern-rock-signal-of-global-financial-meltdown
As I mentioned elsewhere, the WSJ has an article related to bank problems in Italy today. Apparently nonperforming loans are a very large share of the portfolios of Italian banks. This is the article up now: http://www.wsj.com/articles/italian-banks-the-world-hasnt-really-changed-1453820850
The article talks about an “unjustified sell off in bank stocks.”
If the government can do that then why didn’t they do it a long time ago?
Why did they bother printing money to try to offset the impact of high oil prices?
Why didn’t they make the price of oil moot – why didn’t they just separate it from the forces of supply and demand and cost by separating it completely from BAU?
Why did they not make it like a water tap — we need more we turn open the tap further?
Why not just put oil completely under the command of a general — the General of Oil — he could command a division of engineers, geologists and oil workers who operate the oil fields and turn the tap?
FE, general of oil will come after the financial system collapses. Rather than Goldman Sacks it will be the Pentagon. Meet the new boss same as the old boss.
But if expensive oil is causing the collapse — why not stop the collapse altogether by appointing General Oil now? Or better still many decades ago.
Why would we wait until the world has collapsed into chaos?
See Tradeoff – Korowicz —- once BAU collapses it’s not possible to put such a complex thing back together — even harder than getting toothpaste back into the tube.
If this were feasible it would already have happened.
David Stockman said much the same thing in the CBS video interview you linked to of his.
The toxic side-effects are no doubt why the US stopped adding to QE….. (they certainly have not reduced the float though….)
All good things must end ….
But not before they have to. We need the pre-election pump.
I suspect you are right. When faced with the end game — and no other options — the Elders may just totally blast the global economy in one last desperate attempt to kick the can
Millions of Americans go into panic mode and empty shelves as crippling snowstorm set to hit
http://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/a-blizzard-will-hit-the-east-coast/news-story/76bbaef48047e24f100b9f6120bc273a
At least this time around they will be restocked….
The local SuperWalley World will be bare in 2 or 3 days, max! The woods will be cleared of all game, deer or rabbits, sect, within weeks. Then the real fun begins!
The beast is starving…
Deep “Freight Recession” Hits Railroads, Trucking, Air Freight
“Consumers just don’t seem to be showing up….”
As much as we would have liked to, the Dow Transportation Average wasn’t kidding. It has plunged 27% since its high on December 5, 2014. Nearly two-thirds of that plunge came over the past two months. Transportation companies are singing the blues. Railroads, trucking, air freight….
Union Pacific, the largest US railroad, reported awful fourth-quarter earnings Thursday evening. Operating revenues plummeted 15% year over year, and net income dropped 22%.
It was broad-based: The only category where revenues rose was automotive (+1%). Otherwise, revenues fell: Chemicals (-7%), Agricultural Products (-12%), Intermodal containers (-14%), Industrial Products (-23%), and Coal (-31%). Shipment of crude plunged 42%.
So Union Pacific did what American companies do best: it laid off 3,900 people last year.
This is what CEO Lance Fritz told Reuters about the American consumer: “What’s causing us some concern is it’s hard to figure out where the consumer is at.”
More http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/22/freight-recession-blamed-on-consumers-and-commodities/
We need a magic trick…. like … now.
OK, Fast Eddy, hope this is what you’re looking for:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w4re9BZTiSA
Reblogged this on The Parvi Capitalist.
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I have had an epiphany! The oil tanker is turning 180 on a dime today.
FUCK organic farming.
Yes you read that right – FUCK organic farming.
Organic farming can kiss my ass. Toby Hemmingway and Scott Nearing and Joel Salatin can kiss my ass.
Well not totally … but mostly…. (i won’t put urea on the soil because that is suicide)
How did I come to that conclusion you may ask
Well first of all … my fingers are raw from having spent 5 hours in 33 degree heat pulling out couch weed … I had someone assisting while I was away but they were unable to put enough hours on it so it’s gotta slightly out of control…
I reckon I will spend another 30 easily getting it back under control…. but the thing is – it will never go away — like Medusa’s hair if you cut one snake off 100 more grow….
So here’s the thing…
Who gives a damn if what you eat is pure as the driven snow.
When you buy food in the shop — or eat a meal at a restaurant — it is made with ingredients that were sprayed to high hell.
And guess what – even if every thing that passes through your hole is 100% certified organic — you will not live forever…. and given the current situation you will be fortunate to live until the end of the year… you might as well gorge on pizza and beer because you will barely even have enough time to get fat…
So what I will be doing on Monday is going to Farmlands and committing the original sin — I will be buying a family-sized barrel of Round-Up gel — I will then be buying some rubber gloves and brushes — then I will be returning to paint those snake heads and slay that bitch once and for all.
And when I am done with couch weed — the california and scotch thistle are next — do you hear that MOFs? I am locked and loaded and I am coming for you ….. say your prayers varmints….
And….
I will be stockpiling Round Up Gel for future use —- because if I am so unfortunate to survive the end of BAU — I don’t think I will be overly concerned about whether the food I grow is certified organic….
When faced with hunger we’ve eaten each other throughout history — we’ve eaten dogs and cats and grass..
Post collapse if someone offers me ‘Round Up Stew’ — a melange of rat meat cooked in heavily sprayed vegetables and broth —– not only will I slurp that down… I will:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc
New Zealand is looking for a new flag…. I suggest the new flag carry the Monsanto logo
https://monsantonightmare.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/united-states-of-monsanto.jpg
And while we are at it let’s have a new national anthem …
I’ve completed the first verse…
Monsanto, Monsanto,
My good friend forever.
Monsanto, Monsanto,
Screw organic farming
Monsanto, Monsanto,
We’ll not live forever
Monsanto, Monsanto
Oh how we love Monsanto
And instead of a Prime Minister I suggest we move to a monarchy .. but instead of a king or a queen or a sultan or caesar or caliph or czar ….
We instead have a Monsanto as our ruler…
Pigs like to eat the roots of couch weed. Maybe life after BAU could be a long bareque party on tender pork meat.
Long barbecue on pork, or barbequed long pork. That is the question.
Pigs will not rid the soil of twitch. If they do not eat every last bit of it …. it quickly comes back….
That’s great. Continuous food for your pigs. You eat the pigs instead of carots.
“So what I will be doing on Monday is going to Farmlands and committing the original sin — I will be buying a family-sized barrel of Round-Up gel — ”
Have you considered using landscaping cloth, to kill off the weeds? If you have a lumber store nearby, you may be able to get lumber wrap free, it does a good job of killing things off. Just put the black side up and leave it on a patch of ground, and bam, everything dies.
Of course, close to your actual crops you will need a gentler method.
I’ve looked high and low for solutions — spend hours per day pulling it out — or spray it…
Why not spray it?
Pretty much everything that goes into our bodies has been sprayed or consumed some sort of chemical in the growing process.
At the end of the day the chemical is not being applied to the food that is grown – only the weed…
I drive by orchards every day — and they regularly have signs up saying ‘horticultural spraying in progress’ — they have these massive machines fumigating the orchards — and the pesticides coats those nice red apples that you buy in Wally’s World… that’s why they look so nice….
Sometimes — compromise is the best policy —- that’s what all these farmers around here have been trying to tell me for a year now….
And I must admit — they are right….
Hee, hee, hee, Fast Eddy is folding under the pressure….that’s not nice what you wrote about them fellas smacking your white cheeks…
If you bothered to read Helen and Scott Nearing, you would realize it takes 5 years to establish a homestead. If you read Toby, aged pee is just fantastic for your plants..lots of nitro….Quack grass…as we called it in Central Rock Mountain Permaculture has a function…bringing nutrients from the deep. You just not “seeing” at all, but just a big
BABY…WHaaaaa
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YoDh_gHDvkk
‘If you read Toby, aged pee is just fantastic for your plants..lots of nitro’
Thanks for the advice!
Sounds like a fantastic plan if one were running a little hobby garden — not particularly useful in a life and death situation where if you don’t produce enough food — you starve.
And where billions around you are starving and tearing up your food and eating it…..
I suppose Toby would suggest I put my fresh produce onto the pick up and go down to the country market and sell it to the yuppies as a way to supplement my income….
These permaculture clowns are completely out to lunch…. they have not the slightest clue….
They have not the slightest clue?
Clowns?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N6_DbVdVo-k
One thing for certain…that Quack grass will mutate around ’round up’ and soon enough will be drinking ’round up’ like its Kool Aid
Fast Eddy, you are walking down the wrong path…the Dark Side….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
You been sold a bogus bill of goods, kiddo
The difference between me and you … is that when I recognize that I am wrong …. I not only admit it…. I celebrate it….
It means that I have learned something …
It is what differentiates me from a donkey … the donkey just keeps knocking his head against the wall — forever… even if someone says he donkey — turn around and you will be free…. nope… just bang against the wall….
Without Monsanto — your apple costs $5. Chicken costs $30 a pound. A tomato costs $8.
Guess what happens if everyone’s food bill increased by say 500%? Or even 100%
I can lead you to the water — but I cannot force you to drink it.
Feel free to keep bleating on about Scott Nearing…. let’s hear how Monsanto is the devil.
At one time I would have agreed with all that — but I now recognize that is just more Koombaya BS.
No Monsanto — no BAU.
And we all love BAU — even though some of us shit all over it….. that’s because they have not gone out to the forest and cut and split a tree with an axe and dragged it back to the wood shed….
Just come out and admit you are hooked on BAU and can’t face life without Mama BAU and be done with this whining
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xms8iV8ae-c
You are out doing “The Donald”
You may have missed my comments on about 7685 posts where I shouted Long Live BAU – BAU forever etc etc etc…. I really mean that…. I like having food and a bed and police and electricity and doctors and dentists and a chainsaw and a car and coffee and wine ….
When BAU is gone —- you’ll be right there sweating and chattering away like a heroin addict gone cold turkey.
Only someone living in Delusistan would be cheering for the end of BAU.
Fast Eddy, believe me we all got that message! Fine and dandy
The thing is don’t belittle and mock others that are DOING otherwise!
Thought it was agreed upon here there will be a bottleneck after Mama BAU ends. A big reduction in the numbers of our species…something like 90%.
It has been demonstrated BAU can be minimized (ie Scott Nearing) or maximized (ie Fast Eddy). Permaculture strives to minimize and so what if you think its all a farce, because you can’t do it yourself (or those you meet by chance have a challenging time of it themselves). There are those out there that have the disposition, perseverance, talent, mindset, spirit and luck to wing it. So stop with the sour grapes.
My reading of Fast Eddy’s Monsanto post was, “If you are at the end of the line, and don’t live very long anyhow, you do what you have to do to keep yourself and your family alive a little longer.” He is faced with what seems to be an unsolvable weed problem.
This does’t mean that other people, in other circumstances, will come to different decisions. Use of Monsanto products is most likely not good for health. If a person wants at least a possibility of long lives for themselves and their children, then the use of Monsanto products is not the way to go.
There’s that….
But then there is also my conclusion that all of this ‘prepping’ stuff is futile….
As I pointed out in an earlier post — one reason I post this is so that others can observe my journey …. and use that information to determine if they want to follow….
Of course there are those who are on a similar journey already – some have been on the journey for many years — they have dedicated their lives to this — spent money and sweat on it….
I can understand how when I throw up these red flags they get angry — they get resentful….
Because I throw into question the decisions they have made.
That is why nobody has responded to my invitation to trial by fire — nobody wants to see if they are up to living like a true pioneer….. nobody will even go into the back yard with an axe to cut and split a single tree never mind 5.
This is where I think Abilify comes into play…..
Donkeys: I know what you mean; just like climate change deniers – n’est-ce pas?
Like trying to teach a donkey Swahili!!
While I am quite certain burning billions of tonnes of fossil fuels is changing the climate — I am all for burning even more fossil fuels….
Because GDP must grow — and to grow GDP we must increase our burn rate — because there is nothing that can replace fossil fuels….
Crisp blue skies correlate highly with economic collapse…..
“Toby Hemmingway, Scott Nearing and Joel Salatin can kiss my ass.”
Interesting, but you prolly should blame yourself first for the weed problem not them (or the weed itself), lolz.. They and many others don’t have these problems for a reason, start to learn the basics stuff about nature-succession for a start.
Have you ever dealt with twitch?
I have asked loads of people what to do about it including a fellow who runs a business selling organic pest and weed control stuff… I have asked garden centres… I have asked my assistant mr google.com
There are three ways:
– just keep digging it out and eventually it will weaken and maybe die off — oh ya — if you have a small plot sure that will work — try 200sqm — that might work if you want to spend the next 3 years of your life weeding the garden 5 hours per day…..
– get a digger in — scrape the soil down about 20cm removing as much as possible — blanket spray the area — then ideally cover with heavy weed barrier to kill any of it that might survive the fumigation
– dab Medusa’s tentacles with Round Up gel which should kill it down to the root — that should keep the disaster under control and stop it from spreading
In any event — the twitch is only one of about 100 problems that I will face when the electricity goes off….
Consider this — people who lived in the conditions that we are about to have to deal with — i.e. farmers in the 18th and 19th centuries — struggled and often starved … they were born into those conditions —- they had all the skills to make a go of it
And we pampered pussy cats think that we’ll just step into the past and it will be Little House on the Prairie….
Don’t confuse shooting a puck around on the pond with playing for the New York Rangers….
We have not the slightest clue how difficult this will be — we think that because we grow a bit of food with the full backing of BAU (we buy tools at Wally’s World — we use electricity — we use machinery — we use pick up trucks…) we think will be able to be self-sufficient when BAU ends.
Absolutely no way.
And let’s not forget all those hungry people who will be at the farm gate — some will have guns….
Fast Eddy, you keep writing ‘we’, when you should be speaking for yourself!
Obviously, your heart is not into this project at all.
Our forefathers dealt with it and folks are dealing with it and suppose it will be dealt with in the future too.
It’s OK with me…spray all you want…no problem here.
But please DO NOT CLAIM that is the ONLY SOLUTION because you talked to a few folks and think others are just clowns…lacks all creditability.
An old timer was insisting I spray the weed — I asked him what they did back in the day to control it….
He said he did not recall twitch — that it was introduced not so long ago — for as long as he has been aware of it there has been spray ….
Familiarize yourself with this weed using google…. there really is not effective way to get rid of it without spraying it…
You can get on your hands and knees and pull it out day after day after day ….. if you have a reasonable sized farm you will spend half your day on this task….
That presents a problem though doesn’t it — when you need to cut trees with an axe — split them … and haul them ….
When you need to wash your clothes in a bucket by hand….. and cook your food over a fire… if you can find food….
You bet your bottom dollar my heart is not into this — for the 10th time —- go cut a goddamn tree down with an axe and split it by hand.
Seriously – walk out back where ever you are — and try this.
I can imagine your heart won’t be into it after that either.
Or you can just continue to sit there is your cozy room and type spew more senseless diarrhea
Eddy—you keep stealing my lines
All the ‘alternative’ lifestylers base their thinking on the availability of ‘backup’, and somehow still having wheels available, and in addition a purpose for having wheeled transport.
They hanker for the ‘frontier’ life, glossing over the fact that the frontier had no backup—
the cavalry didn’t come riding over the hill to save people.
Sure, to push out to any frontier situation meant you were tough—far tougher than we are now—but the alternative was death. The weak simply did not survive. There was no medication to allow the weak to live.
I could not live the life my g-grandparents lived—they weren’t on any frontier, but by social comparison with me, they might as well have been
Degrowthers look forward to it—ignoring what happened in 08—that little bit of degrowth crashed much of the world economy—imagine what real degrowth is going to do.
A perfect case in point maybe, is that Ben Hockett, someone who made multi millions out of that crash by anticipating it, has now detached himself from conventional civilisation and become a ‘prepper.
He can obviously anticipate what’s about to happen next time.
People are reading too much Scott Nearing …
‘The good life’ — well ya… it can be pretty good if you are able to pick and choose which BAU gifts you will use
Such as chain saws, and pick up trucks and cement, and medicine, and doctors, and roads, and factory made tools…. you get to sell your books into books stores in the Mall … and use the cash to fly (in a jet) to Florida…
(And it is implied that anyone who enjoys all the gifts of BAU unselectively (i.e. is no a hypocrite is somehow inferior… weak… )
Hot damn — that really is the good life!
But unfortunately post BAU all the gifts disappear – and it becomes the BRUTAL LIFE…. it will be the BRUTAL LIFE.
One person here NEEDS to read Helen and Scott Nearing and a host of others that insults are discharged by that individual going by the name of Fast Eddy.
Let’s take a step back in time to the year 1 BF or the year Before Farming……
When humans were exclusively hunting and gathering…. when humans were living more or less sustainably…. in tribes…
The tribes would have been warring with each other regularly — killing each other as populations grew and they encroached on each others hunting and gathering territories…
Then I can imagine someone had a eureka moment and worked out to grow food.
The original permaculturist….
This innovator – who may have been a women tired of her husband going off to fight in these tribal wars over food — no doubt thought this incredible invention which was referred to as ‘farming’ was going to bring peace to the world.
She probably made the equivalent of a power point presentation to the chief explaining how the if the tribe adopted her invention wars would end because the tribe could feed far more people on far less land that was required for hunting and gathering.
The Chief – realizing this invention could end wars and hunger – and might even enrich him — was all for this ‘farming’
However a few of the elders of the tribe — very wise men — asked the Chief to give this further thought …..
They asked: yes – we will have more food now and for many years — but more food means our population will increase…. which means we will need more food and more land…. and the wars and hunger will start again at some point….
Maybe we should just maintain the status quo — we have no idea what pandora’s box this ‘farming’ will open….
And a really prescient elder may have even warned:
Once we get down this road who knows what we will resort to when the land is not sufficient to support humans through ‘farming’ — we might be forced to use inputs that cause disease in our bodies…. things that destroy the soil and the planet….
And the Chief said: F&^% you all….
I WANT TO LIVE THE GOOD LIFE!!!
Therefore we will be converting half our lands to organic farming starting tomorrow.
It looks to me as though the above comment is by End_of_More. I would agree.
NEWSFLASH – MONSANTO GRANTED PROTEIN PATENT
Washington DC… After around the clock negotiations with USDA officials, the U.S. Patent Office, and representatives from the Dept. of HEW, Dept. of State, and Dept. of Treasury, Monsanto’s legal counsel presented their agreement to the U.S. Supreme Court. On a five to four vote, the Court approved the agreement and awarded a patent on protein to Monsanto Corporation of St. Louis, MO
The patent was issued under the new intellectual property rights regulations that passed Congress last week. The President signed the landmark “Virtual Reality” bill yesterday. In a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House, President Richard Weed declared that this would not “fix everything” but that he was “confident that this is a step in the right direction” and that “this fixation on facts and observations” will soon become a thing of the past. “Now is the time for creative vision” were his closing words at the brief ceremony before a small crowd of journalists and photographers and Monsanto employees, including several congressmen and senators.
Monsanto’s attorneys presented the case that Monsanto had invented protein after a long and expensive process carried on in a parallel universe over five billion years ago. Food producers whose products contain protein will now be required to purchase a license and pay royalties. Richard Head, Lead Attorney for Monsanto, declined to comment on plans for seeking reparations for previous unlicensed protein production except to say “We’re looking into it.”
A senior Monsanto executive, who asked not to be named, said, “This is a tribute to the U.S. legal system that corrects injustice and protects the rights of the people.” Another Monsanto executive who is member of the “Protein and Consciousness Committee”, who asks to remain anonymous, stated, “This is a far reaching decision that will eventually reposition the current notion of intellectual property rights.” A high ranking executive in Monsanto’s Financial Division stated, off the record, that “these fees and royalties should bring in somewhere between a hundred zillion to a gazillion dollars annually”.
Monsanto is #1.
“President Richard Weed” LOL
That was an Oct.2009 post: http://zombieapocalypsemitigation.com/?page_id=416
That said, I agree that quite a few of Monsanto’s patents are truly frightening. Especially on seeds, but not only (http://gmo-awareness.com/2011/05/12/monsanto-dirty-dozen/).
Does it matter any longer? I don’t know.
As promised… I went down to Bunnings today and I bought chemical gel…. not Monsanto though because the garden lady said there was another brand that was exactly the same and offered 25% more for the same price — they don’t have family sized jugs so I bought 6 200ml ones…
Says on the label ‘see effects in less than an hour’ I am so excited – tomorrow I vanquish the enemy ….
While we are stuffing farming into the hopium pipe…. my good neighbours were by for tea this afternoon — and we were discussing composting…. they are very experienced ‘organic’ farmers (they use chemicals sometimes too!) and they were saying that it would be extremely difficult to make enough compost to keep their soil healthy just from inputs from their property (they have chickens and sheep…)
They truck in large amounts of inputs each year…. if they had no access to these inputs they’d have to scale back dramatically…
There garden is about half the size of ours…
There is no way I will be able to feed 4 people from the garden we have — even if we adequate compost…
Oh and btw — they try to save seeds — they buy organic seeds … some heirloom as well — no hybrids or GMO — and 9 out of 10 times they indicate the seeds will not germinate… so they just keep ordering more seeds from King’s Seeds every year….
The Church Lady has something to say about that
Boy, Fast Eddy, Sorry things don’t look too good for you “down under’. All those outside inputs will disappear soon after the end of BAU….and afterwards ….the end by slow starvation….or worse….
Think there is only one thing left to do
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSaexuegXE
Fast Eddy, you are not alone, many of us living in the matrix will be doing the same when Mama BAU is gone forever…but that’s life….nothing lasts forever
We, so called advanced civil action types, are no better than this …
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6b1CQFzOIfw
Good good! Monsanto rocks!
http://news.monsanto.com/press-release/monsanto-company-rolls-out-new-tagline-imagine
I am imagining what is going to happen to that twitch weed tomorrow — I can imagine it would like to run but unfortunately it has no legs ba—-hahahahaha!!!!
I can also imagine that nasty thistle up the hill is aware that it’s days are numbered because it heard me whistling the Monstanto theme song all day today …..
I am more than happy to give Monsanto a testimonial in exchange for a 20 year supply of Round Up.
Fast Eddy, thanks for your support…but Monsanto has all the support they will EVER need…BTW …business is booming…son are the profits….watch
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rAwpJYJY9DE
Now, all you have to do is find a cure for cancer
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g6GuEswXOXo
Oh but cancer is a small price to pay in exchange for being able to buy food at a reasonable price….
Imagine how much an apple would cost if it were not sprayed with pesticides…. or if it were grown in soil that was replenished with organic compost….
Like it or not — we need the Monsantos of this world…..
Do “We” now need them? Speak for yourself, white cheeks! You need not brainwash us here with your Koombaya Monsanto cheer!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=belEBMZu_Tg
Sing along with Neil Young.
Just because instant gratification isn’t fast enough for you, doesn’t mean it’s the norm.
I take it you are ok with paying $5 for an apple?
What are you talking about?…..Fast Eddy bitchnin about price?
Hey, we are here because there will be no money ahead more than likely…
You of all people should realise that by now
Please…stay calm….focus….
You are embarrassing yourself with this complete lack of logic and inability to coherently respond….
Feel free to continue though…. as I am sure you will.
I’ve really hit the hot button with the granola crunchers here haven’t I…. it sucks when the facts just don’t support your position doesn’t it? Keep the insults coming —- insults… like the smell of napalm in the morning = victory…..
Facts? Depends on what so called “facts” you lookin at, kiddo. Embarrassing myself? Hardly, if I was you wouldn’t be making such an effort to defend your obvious self centered “poor me, Twich is making my life hell” position. The old timer you mentioned claimed it was recently introduced as an invasive species. Just like Kudzu here in the South. You do have a problem….maybe you should have done better research about your locale before settling there. Sounds like you may have to resettle…again LOL
Hey, that opening is still available at Helen and Scott Nearing homestead up in Maine.
You and Mrs. Eddy have a few days left to apply. Good luck.
FE, don’t despair. If you can’t beat them, eat them! Convert them in bread, or bring the goats!
“Though commonly regarded in this country as a worthless and troublesome weed, couch grass roots are, however, considered on the Continent to be wholesome food for cattle and horses. In Italy, especially, they are carefully gathered by the peasants and sold in the markets. The roots have a sweet taste, somewhat resembling liquorice, and Withering relates that, dried and ground into meal, bread has been made with them in time of scarcity.”
https://www.botanical.com/botanical/mgmh/g/grasse34.html#coumed
You are not just saying that because you want me to poison myself… are you…. 🙂
I suppose when I am starving post BAU I will be taking you up on that …. and hopefully they are actually poisonous 🙂
Not sure they need any additional support, they’re already everywhere:
“The vast majority ‒ 85 percent ‒ of tampons, cotton and sanitary products tested in a new Argentinian study contained glyphosate, the key ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup herbicide, ruled a likely carcinogen by the World Health Organization.”
https://www.rt.com/usa/319524-tampons-cotton-glyphosate-monsanto/
Isn’t that special….
“Most of the cotton production in the country is GM [genetically modified] cotton that is resistant to glyphosate. It is sprayed when the bud is open and the glyphosate is condensed and goes straight into the product,” Avila continued.
For those who were not aware …
Roundup Ready plants are resistant to Roundup, so farmers that plant these seeds must use Roundup to keep other weeds from growing in their fields. The first Roundup Ready crops were developed in 1996, with the introduction of genetically modified soybeans that are resistant to Roundup. http://web.mit.edu/demoscience/Monsanto/about.html
If I understand this correctly ….. farmers plant their Roundup immune seeds …. then they follow on with a good drenching of Roundup….
The Roundup kills everything but the seeds — and voila — nice shiny apples…. bright orange carrots …. unblemished egg plants….
All right there on your grocery store shelves waiting for you to put into the pot….
The Borg cannot be resisted — in fact the Borg should not be resisted — you must assimilate — the Borg offers The Good Life…… the Borg also helps BAU stay alive…..
http://www.startrek.com/uploads/assets/db_articles/a9284990819635ebb868c33529314dce0fad3dd5.jpg
[Phrase deleted.] MonSatan did not invent glyphosate; it was originally a chelating agent to extract heany metals until MonSatan discovered its herbicidal properties.
Hence glyphosate treated crops are mineral deficient because it has grabbed them!!
I am not sure what your point is — who cares who invented that chemical….
All I can say is that it is a god send — what would 7.5 Billion people do without it?
It is one of the many fantastic chemicals that companies like Monsanto have deployed to ensure that food remains affordable for all of us earthlings….
What’s the axiom about food — oh ya — 3 meals from anarchy….
Can I amend that?
3 cheap meals from anarchy …. a meal is not much good if it costs a family $100 – is it….
So Monsanto is actually preventing riots in the streets — also by participating in the Green Revolution they are also stopping wars and famine ….
I would like to nominate Monsanto for the Nobel Prizes for Peace.
I cannot think of another person or entity on the the planet that has done so much for the world’s poor — not even Bono or Geldoff!
You are psychotic – chapter and verse. Overpopulation IS the problem.
Yes it is the problem
But that happened long before Monsanto came along.
The moment man started to try to live THE GOOD LIVE (as Scott Nearing calls it) — the minute he left the forests and switched to farming …. organic farming … the population started to explode
That was the beginning of the end…..
Monsanto is just helping kick the can a little further by ensuring we continue to have a cheap supply of food
Think about it.
And keep in mind – I used to call Monsanto Monsatan at one point — then I thought about it
You are crazy as all hell , but amusing sometimes
Minnesota Fats
Glyphosate is probably not something we would want to eat, if it is a chelating agent.
Stockman interview … if they continue to print the system blows up…
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/david-stockman-on-cnbc-this-is-a-dead-cat-bounce-were-at-peak-debt-headed-for-recession/
Idiot question of the day from CNBs ‘yes – but how long have you been negative’
Kinda like sitting on the deck of the Titanic and asking someone if they were long or short Harland and Wolff shares…
I liked what Stockman had to say, regardless of the silly questions by the interviewer.
Usually Zero Hedge threads are juvenile/adolescent, however the following post was a departure from the usual. It’s an interesting post:
I was a fracker in 2010 ..
At the time it was called Fractech. A wholly owned Texas family company. Today it is called FTS,
Intl. A British-Chinese conglomerate. Last I checked, its largest shareholder was Temasek (Singapore). It was part of Chesapeake, but I think that has been sold off. Most energy companies, with probably the exceptions of Halliburton and Baker Hughes are British-Chinese conglomerates.
I guess price per barrel back then was $50+ avg. At prices approaching $10 per barrel, fracking has to just shut down completely. The more you frack/drill, the more production going into existing supply. There is more supply than demand world wide. And, Iran is not fully online. Russia could still add more if they choose. It is just like shipping. Shipping companies are staying in port, because once their ships leave port with goods, they lose money. So, to not lose money, the ships stay in port.
How is this fixed? As an American, I can only speak towards the American segment of the equation. At some point, and hopefully sometime very soon, as Bill Holter and Jim Sincalir and others agreeing with them have opined, everything will simply have to shut down and reset. Or, restart and/or regroup. Once that happens, America cannot go back to the global economy. It must isolate itself for a time. How long? That depends on many variables. It has to reboot its own domestic industry. That means shutting down every else (American owned) abroad. Including especially the military bases.
There are plans in place. If implemented quickly, restoration can be achieved in a decade or less. Dramatic and positive changes can be realized in as little as one year or so. These plans have been in conception since the winter of 1980 via a very select [Presidential] task force. All but one of the original members of this TF has passed away. The one remaining today was the most key member. I will let him speak from here on ..
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. The U.S. Military will come out on top in the end. Forget about the stock market. It is a casino and a distraction. Getting down to brass tacks soon and it won’t be pretty.
“everything will simply have to shut down and reset. Or, restart and/or regroup. ”
yes no no no
“It has to reboot its own domestic industry ”
Extensive use of false imagery in his repeated use of “reboot’ “reset” “restart” “regroup” We have been moving key equipment and technology overseas for three decades. a massive concerted effort. real equipment. real technology. And that is reversed with the image of pressing a reset button?
“That means shutting down every else (American owned) abroad. Including especially the military bases.”
Not going to happen
“There are plans in place.”
There are plans in place. None of those plans is remotely close to what he writes.
“If implemented quickly, restoration can be achieved in a decade or less.”
no
“Dramatic and positive changes can be realized in as little as one year or so. ”
no
The hopium pipe he is passing is the brand favored over at ZH.
I bit too much hopium at the end there, yes, but what was interesting is the idea of resetting to not be part of the global economy. That’s anti-hopium because that would represent a huge contracting event. We’ll see, but it’s interesting how many people have similar visions of dramatic change.
I look at it like a human body — physically we probably peak in our late 20s? …. then we slowly degrade… then at some point the body collapses and dies…
You can’t ‘reset’ it….
Same thing with BAU….
Continuing the analogy… severing the US from the rest of the global “body” would be akin to ripping its heart out, or any other vital organ, rather than removing a limb…
A globalised world economy is like a global organism, with a sizeable number of nation states representing the vital organs and a few clogged arteries pumping what’s left of the black blood.
Necrosis has set in, and one by one, the organs are starting to fail, causing the next one to go, and so on…
No other part of the global body can continue to live without its vital organs and the continuous flow of black blood.
I like this!
If our own resources weren’t already so depleted, I would agree this could be done. As it is, it looks to me like any reset has to be to a very, very much lower level.
Dear Gail and All
First, I am not a financial type person. When I need to, I figure out what some story involving ‘swaps’ is all about, then forget how it all works before the nest time I need to understand it. But this story caught my attention because of the statement that the big financial institutions can no longer make money with money. That is the sort of symptom I would expect if the thermodynamic underpinnings of the economy were no longer supportive of growth. Does anyone have a better take on this than I do?
Don Stewart
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-22/bank-unearnings-why-ficc-shrinking-and-will-continue
Goldman Sachs, one of the purest of the former shadow banks, is shrinking. If they can’t make money in FICC then there is no money. It is bank balance sheets that manufacture the internal eurodollar “currencies” that make it all work. There is no profit in it, to the point now where what little reward looks more like 2009-type levels of decay and dysfunction.
Limits on a finite world manifest in many ways, the global financial markets are breaking down, bit by bit, before the final stroke comes.
The final stoke is likely a financial one, because finances are what connect all of the other limits. If is the fact that we are becoming increasingly inefficient in many ways at once that converges and impacts the financial system first. This is why looking at oil EROEI alone is a waste of time, as I see it.
Don, I am also a big fan of thermodynamic modeling. I think that it best explains what is happening in the world right now and has a resonance with truth.
Thanks for the link to the article!
One thing that struck me when the Basel 3 rules were announced is that by raising capital rules, the regulators are effectively reducing the amount of debt that banks can be lend. They are also making it harder for banks to make money, because if they are lending and trading less, they will have less profit, unless their margins are wider. With a low spread between short and long interest rates, banks can’t even make much money on this spread.
I have heard before that small banks are now handicapped, so that they can no longer grow to become big banks.
There are articles about all of the layoffs in the industry.
http://thomasdishaw.com/mass-layoffs-to-hit-banking-industry-as-consumers-ditch-big-box-banking/
http://dollarcollapse.com/banking/big-banks-cutting-tens-of-thousands-of-workers-huge-implications/
The people who thought that they were making banking safer by making tougher capital rules, in fact were making it less profitable, and because of this causing its demise. Also, as I keep writing, money comes either from wages (particularly of non-elite workers) or increases in debt. If the debt increases aren’t coming as before, that means fewer new factories are financed and fewer people can get jobs working in them.
Of course, we also have the problem that we already have factories built than we really need, given the quantity of goods people can really afford. When we put that together with the increased capital requirements, there is a real problem.
Gail
This was one exchange on Peak Oil:
“the best phrasing i’ve heard yet is that supply/demand may have driven oil from $100 to $60, but something non-fundamental drove it from $60 to $30.”
………..
Non fundamental; the CBs dropped $14 trillion in funny money onto the world’s FX markets. The Chinese got 37 billion square feet of unused commercial space, and the US got 3.5 mb/d of camel pee’
My take on it is that the central banks encouraged a vast amount of speculation and a large amount of mal-investment in real goods such as those empty buildings in China and big houses in the US.
I know you disagree, but I also think we are at thermodynamic limits to the growth of oil. Since the fundamental process by which people make a living is using energy to turn raw materials into something useful, the decline of oil as a source of energy also impacts the demand for other raw materials…we don’t have to be depleting our copper supply in order to have falling demand for copper. Since, in my opinion, we don’t have the oil any more and we really can’t immediately substitute any other energy source for the oil, the surplus created by the map-investment won’t be worked off in our lifetime. Leading to defaults.
If people are having trouble turning raw materials into marketable goods, then lots of things go wrong, including banks having trouble figuring out how to make money.
By this reasoning, the only way that the central banks money printing could have worked was if the world had a plentiful supply of energy and raw materials which could be bought cheaply, processed, and sold for a profit. That scenario began to fail rapidly after 2000 and is now in the rear view mirror.
Don Stewart
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I see the comments are coming fast and furious.
All interesting tidbits to be sure, but you guys are focusing on the wrong stuff and preaching to the choir. You pretend as though you are the only ones following these news stories, and then post here. Look at me! I’m aware of of all of these things! Doom!
Folks, billions of people worldwide are connected to the media and grid. Billions of people worldwide actually do follow things. If you post something here, I guarantee you that millions of people are aware of it, hundreds of thousands follow it closely, and tens of thousands are taking action on it.
Admittedly, not everyone has the doomer perspective. But I still sense a feeling of smug self importance here.
Get over it. The numbers are really, really big people. We just aren’t that important, and neither are events. Price action up and down, companies failing, markets in turmoil…none of this matters. What matters is the vision of the long decline.
dolph911, if the community is focusing on the wrong stuff, when they should actually be focusing on the vision of the long decline. Could you dolph lead the way, show an example how to do it right?
Van Kent, Dolph needs to realize that we are assembling “news” that connects the dots to what Gail is generous enough to provide. True, millions have access to these media “tidbits”, and I, myself, never claimed I was “important”. Just passing along what might help folks to “get it”. Of course, Dolph chooses to be here and no one forces anyone to read the comment page. I filter out what is helpful and discount/ignore what is not.
Just like I do on other websites, such as, zero hedge or the crux.
The bottom line is not everyone is going to be pleased, no matter what.
Vince, I don´t understand dolph or B9 bitching, especially if they don´t themselves do a better job at it. If we are overlooking something in the comments, then it would be of great help to Gail if we could have an excellent conversation about those all-important topics.
But simply giving judgement on the community and bitching, I don´t understand the benefit Gail has from that?
All sites unfortunately attract the narcissistic types, who think they know best and want to tell everybody what to do. Generally they are 20- or 30-somethings and still psychologically at the “ego/identity” stage. B9K9 even wrote, “As everyone knows, I think that…” but of course everyone doesn’t know, because he doesn’t have his own blog. Then he did a vanity bit about his physical appearance, followed by suggesting that Gail delete comments that didn’t follow his example. But in fact he never gives us any solutions.
People piece things together at different rates, and Paul Chefurka has an insightful take on this:
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/LadderOfAwareness.html
In the meantime, some of us commenters just like to talk to one another about the situation. Goodness knows, few enough people in our lives want to talk about it – at least we get to let off a little steam, in the face of the fact that none of us can precisely predict the future.
Dolph you post;
“Admittedly, not everyone has the doomer perspective.”
Then you write;
“What matters is the vision of the long decline.”
But isn’t a long decline a doomer perspective?
‘Billions of people worldwide actually do follow things’
They follow the MSM – which tells them everything is fine — yes there are going to be some speed bumps on the way to recovery and living large again (at least for those of us in the west…)…
And they believe it… they WANT to believe it…
If they are confronted by the reality — the facts — they can get downright unruly…
The MSM is completely useless as an information source UNLESS you are aware of the game the Elders are playing — then you can glean bits and pieces of information and data that help with working out what is really going on …. of course alternative media such as ZH, Wolfstreet, Stockman are far more helpful because they – particularly ZH – actually pull content from the MSM and explain its real significance…. or they will explain how it is a bald face lie….
‘If you don’t follow the news you are uninformed — if you do follow the news you are misinformed’
“focusing on the wrong stuff”
FE once said somthing here. Its not a direct quote. He said
“You misunderstand why people post here, they post here to communicate before they die”
“If you post something here, I guarantee you that millions of people are aware of it, hundreds of thousands follow it closely, and tens of thousands are taking action on it.”
Uh no
“If you post something here, I guarantee you that two people are aware of it, none follow it closely, and none are taking action on it”
Fixed it for you. Actually this is probably a overestimation too
And you accuse others here of smugness? Over estimating self importance is a quality of smugness you know?
No one actually cares what a bunch of old geezer doomsters think.
Gails writing is so exceptional IT should have the following of which you speak.
Doom is not popular.
The hero winning in the end after great effort is popular.
Look at the phenomena of Like or dislike rating. People are trained to sort that way. And what is the criteria for that sorting? It is how the material makes them feel.
“But I still sense a feeling of smug self importance here. ”
I dont feel feel smug. I feel increasingly empty, devoid of purpose. On the other hand at times I enjoy the simple things- some labor, use of materials, or simply walking under a night sky with great intensity. I feel great gratitude. Look at the people of Syria- they were happy, content, and productive. Now their world has been torn apart by a proxy war. Soon all our worlds will be torn apart.
Smugness is a trait of the beginner doomster. Wistfulness is the trait of a doomster pro.
Beautifully, insightfully, empathetically, and truthfully put.
‘I feel increasingly empty, devoid of purpose. On the other hand at times I enjoy the simple things- some labor, use of materials, or simply walking under a night sky with great intensity. I feel great gratitude. Look at the people of Syria- they were happy, content, and productive.’
I like all of that … but I particularly like the first line …
I always wondered what it would be like to be a male version of Kim Kardashian or Paris Hilton — now I know…. kind of….
You folks impact more than you think. Ideas spread like disease. Keep infecting.
“If you post something here, I guarantee you that two people are aware of it, none follow it closely, and none are taking action on it”
Thanks, that truth is so funny it gave me a big laugh. A lot of thought goes into posts and yet they are simply a bit of fluff passing by. I figure it’s more for the person posting it than anyone who might read it. We are getting ideas off our chest – we are nonetheless communicating in a manner that isn’t probably what we can do in our 3D world, because most people just want to talk about mundane subjects to keep them feeling safe. Don’t want to draw a lot of attention talking about unusual subjects. My wife’s sister cannot stand me because I’ll talk about all sorts of stuff, the more interesting and unusual the better. She wants the conversations to be about simple stuff, apps, the weather, new clothing, a new food product, how to cook something, boring!
Thanks Stilgar,
A discussion of sports scores tends to placate such people…. simple minds… simple thoughts….
It’s hard faking such a discussion when you’re not even aware there is some kind of world cup happening.
Weather is easier.
When the faking consists of asking vague questions to feign interest, it’s already losing its effectiveness. I used to be fairly adept at these “games”. Now, I simply don’t bother. I let “the others” jabber on about whatever the hell they want as I go all zen-like and continue to pick at my food…
But yeah, there’s always the weather…
You summed up the experience of dealing with “the others” incredibly well. I am finding it more and more difficult to interact with “the others” in a “normal” way, to have “normal” discussions, to behave “as expected…”
But I don’t really mind. As a social phobic, I was always suspicious of small talk and MSM culture. Finally, I have a legitimate reason to ignore all of that, and see it for what it truly represents… cultural programming.
Time to move on.
Sometimes … when I meet someone who I think might be clued in …. I probe …. I usually start with the economy…..
I was speaking to someone the other day who I thought might be in the club — so I ran a hand sign by them ….. no reaction …
So I mentioned China and the US economy …. they said ‘I think the US is getting a little stronger’
So — how about that warm weather…..
Actually I think I have only ever spoken to one person who got the economy thing….. they were basically in the camp of Stockman …. very good at identifying symptoms ….. very good at concluding catastrophe was imminent
I made the fatal mistake of pointing out the disease — the end of cheap to extract oil — holy mary mother of god was that a misstep — the fellow went off on how there were billions of barrels of oil off the coast of new zealand but that the environmental lobby would not allow exploration … how shale oil was so awesome …. and so on ….
I find that I am incredibly disappointed with people …
FW is such a crucial resource….
The same feeling here. Nobody to talk to. Surrounded by deniers and wishful thinkers. I don’t even try now, it’s useless. People need to believe in happy endings, need to feel good. For them, facts doesn’t matter, because the 99% can’t realy face the truth. And in my sad country, Portugal, sometimes i feel that I’m the only person aware that this – industrial civilization – will come apart in pieces very soon. Dooming is indeed a lonely business, Well, at least I have OFW.
Thanks jhg.
Dolph, individual perception creates reality and we are as important as we think we are. Just because I am 1 person out of 7.5 billion it does not necessarily minimize my own personal experiences. Earth is just 1 planet out of what appears to be an infinite number of others; this doesn’t mean that Earth and the actions taken there by its inhabitants are meaningless.