A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it:
1. Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 per barrel.
A few countries can get oil out of the ground for $30 per barrel. Figure 1 gives an approximation to technical extraction costs for various countries. Even on this basis, there aren’t many countries extracting oil for under $30 per barrel–only Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq. We wouldn’t have much crude oil if only these countries produced oil.
Figure 1. Global breakeven prices (considering only technical extraction costs) versus production. Source: Alliance Bernstein, October 2014
2. Oil producers really need prices that are higher than the technical extraction costs shown in Figure 1, making the situation even worse.
Oil can only be extracted within a broader system. Companies need to pay taxes. These can be very high. Including these costs has historically brought total costs for many OPEC countries to over $100 per barrel.
Independent oil companies in non-OPEC countries also have costs other than technical extraction costs, including taxes and dividends to stockholders. Also, if companies are to avoid borrowing a huge amount of money, they need to have higher prices than simply the technical extraction costs. If they need to borrow, interest costs need to be considered as well.
3. When oil prices drop very low, producers generally don’t stop producing.
There are built-in delays in the oil production system. It takes several years to put a new oil extraction project in place. If companies have been working on a project, they generally won’t stop just because prices happen to be low. One reason for continuing on a project is the existence of debt that must be repaid with interest, whether or not the project continues.
Also, once an oil well is drilled, it can continue to produce for several years. Ongoing costs after the initial drilling are generally very low. These previously drilled wells will generally be kept operating, regardless of the current selling price for oil. In theory, these wells can be stopped and restarted, but the costs involved tend to deter this action.
Oil exporters will continue to drill new wells because their governments badly need tax revenue from oil sales to fund government programs. These countries tend to have low extraction costs; nearly the entire difference between the market price of oil and the price required to operate the oil company ends up being paid in taxes. Thus, there is an incentive to raise production to help generate additional tax revenue, if prices drop. This is the issue for Saudi Arabia and many other OPEC nations.
Very often, oil companies will purchase derivative contracts that protect themselves from the impact of a drop in market prices for a specified time period (typically a year or two). These companies will tend to ignore price drops for as long as these contracts are in place.
There is also the issue of employee retention. In a sense, a company’s greatest assets are its employees. Once these employees are lost, it will be hard to hire and retrain new employees. So employees are kept on as long as possible.
The US keeps raising its biofuel mandate, regardless of the price of oil. No one stops to realize that in the current over-supplied situation, the mandate adds to low price pressures.
One brake on the system should be the financial pain induced by low oil prices, but this braking effect doesn’t necessarily happen quickly. Oil exporters often have sovereign wealth funds that they can tap to offset low tax revenue. Because of the availability of these funds, some exporters can continue to finance governmental services for two or more years, even with very low oil prices.
Defaults on loans to oil companies should also act as a brake on the system. We know that during the Great Recession, regulators allowed commercial real estate loans to be extended, even when property valuations fell, thus keeping the problem hidden. There is a temptation for regulators to allow similar leniency regarding oil company loans. If this happens, the “braking effect” on the system is reduced, allowing the default problem to grow until it becomes very large and can no longer be hidden.
4. Oil demand doesn’t increase very rapidly after prices drop from a high level.
People often think that going from a low price to a high price is the opposite of going from a high price to a low price, in terms of the effect on the economy. This is not really the case.
4a. When oil prices rise from a low price to a high price, this generally means that production has been inadequate, with only the production that could be obtained at the prior lower price. The price must rise to a higher level in order to encourage additional production.
The reason that the cost of oil production tends to rise is because the cheapest-to-extract oil is removed first. Oil producers must thus keep adding production that is ever-more expensive for one reason or another: harder to reach location, more advanced technology, or needing additional steps that require additional human labor and more physical resources. Growing efficiencies can somewhat offset this trend, but the overall trend in the cost of oil production has been sharply upward since about 1999.
The rising price of oil has an adverse impact on affordability. The usual pattern is that after a rise in the price of oil, economies of oil importing nations go into recession. This happens because workers’ wages do not rise at the same time as oil prices. As a result, workers find that they cannot buy as many discretionary items and must cut back. These cutbacks in purchases create problems for businesses, because businesses generally have high fixed costs including mortgages and other debt payments. If these businesses are to continue to operate, they are forced to cut costs in one way or another. Cost reduction occurs in many ways, including reducing wages for workers, layoffs, automation, and outsourcing of manufacturing to cheaper locations.
For both employers and employees, the impact of these rapid changes often feels like a rug has been pulled out from under foot. It is very unpleasant and disconcerting.
4b. When prices fall, the situation that occurs is not the opposite of 4a. Employers find that thanks to lower oil prices, their costs are a little lower. Very often, they will try to keep some of these savings as higher profits. Governments may choose to raise tax rates on oil products when oil prices fall, because consumers will be less sensitive to such a change than otherwise would be the case. Businesses have no motivation to give up cost-saving techniques they have adopted, such as automation or outsourcing to a cheaper location.
Few businesses will construct new factories with the expectation that low oil prices will be available for a long time, because they realize that low prices are only temporary. They know that if oil prices don’t go back up in a fairly short period of time (months or a few years), the quantity of oil available is likely to drop precipitously. If sufficient oil is to be available in the future, oil prices will need to be high enough to cover the true cost of production. Thus, current low prices are at most a temporary benefit–something like the eye of a hurricane.
Since the impact of low prices is only temporary, businesses will want to adopt only changes that can take place quickly and can be easily reversed. A restaurant or bar might add more waiters and waitresses. A car sales business might add a few more salesmen because car sales might be better. A factory making cars might schedule more shifts of workers, so as to keep the number of cars produced very high. Airlines might add more flights, if they can do so without purchasing additional planes.
Because of these issues, the jobs that are added to the economy are likely to be mostly in the service sector. The shift toward outsourcing to lower-cost countries and automation can be expected to continue. Citizens will get some benefit from the lower oil prices, but not as much as if governments and businesses weren’t first in line to get their share of the savings. The benefit to citizens will be much less than if all of the people who were laid off in the last recession got their jobs back.
5. The sharp drop in oil prices in the last 18 months has little to do with the cost of production.
Instead, recent oil prices represent an attempt by the market to find a balance between supply and demand. Since supply doesn’t come down quickly in response to lower prices, and demand doesn’t rise quickly in response to lower prices, prices can drop very low–far below the cost of production.
As noted in Section 4, high oil prices tend to be recessionary. The primary way of offsetting recessionary forces is by directly or indirectly adding debt at low interest rates. With this increased debt, more homes and factories can be built, and more cars can be purchased. The economy can be forced to act in a more “normal” manner because the low interest rates and the additional debt in some sense counteract the adverse impact of high oil prices.
Figure 2. World oil supply and prices based on EIA data.
Oil prices dropped very low in 2008, as a result of the recessionary influences that take place when oil prices are high. It was only with the benefit of considerable debt-based stimulation that oil prices were gradually pumped back up to the $100+ per barrel level. This stimulation included US deficit spending, Quantitative Easing (QE) starting in December 2008, and a considerable increase in debt by the Chinese.
Commodity prices tend to be very volatile because we use such large quantities of them and because storage is quite limited. Supply and demand have to balance almost exactly, or prices spike higher or lower. We are now back to an “out of balance” situation, similar to where we were in late 2008. Our options for fixing the situation are more limited this time. Interest rates are already very low, and governments generally feel that they have as much debt as they can safely handle.
6. One contributing factor to today’s low oil prices is a drop-off in the stimulus efforts of 2008.
As noted in Section 4, high oil prices tend to be recessionary. As noted in Section 5, this recessionary impact can, at least to some extent, be offset by stimulus in the form of increased debt and lower interest rates. Unfortunately, this stimulus has tended to have adverse consequences. It encouraged overbuilding of both homes and factories in China. It encouraged a speculative rise in asset prices. It encouraged investments in enterprises of questionable profitability, including many investments in oil from US shale formations.
In response to these problems, the amount of stimulus is being reduced. The US discontinued its QE program and cut back its deficit spending. It even began raising interest rates in December 2015. China is also cutting back on the quantity of new debt it is adding.
Unfortunately, without the high level of past stimulus, it is difficult for the world economy to grow rapidly enough to keep the prices of all commodities, including oil, high. This is a major contributing factor to current low prices.
7. The danger with very low oil prices is that we will lose the energy products upon which our economy depends.
There are a number of different ways that oil production can be lost if low oil prices continue for an extended period.
In oil exporting countries, there can be revolutions and political unrest leading to a loss of oil production.
In almost any country, there can be a sharp reduction in production because oil companies cannot obtain debt financing to pay for more services. In some cases, companies may go bankrupt, and the new owners may choose not to extract oil at low prices.
There can also be systemwide financial problems that indirectly lead to much lower oil production. For example, if banks cannot be depended upon for payroll services, or to guarantee payment for international shipments, such problems would affect all oil companies, not just ones in financial difficulty.
Oil is not unique in its problems. Coal and natural gas are also experiencing low prices. They could experience disruptions indirectly because of continued low prices.
8. The economy cannot get along without an adequate supply of oil and other fossil fuel products.
We often read articles in the press that seem to suggest that the economy could get along without fossil fuels. For example, the impression is given that renewables are “just around the corner,” and their existence will eliminate the need for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, at this point in time, we are nowhere near being able to get along without fossil fuels.
Food is grown and transported using oil products. Roads are made and maintained using oil and other energy products. Oil is our single largest energy product.
Experience over a very long period shows a close tie between energy use and GDP growth (Figure 3). Nearly all technology is made using fossil fuel products, so even energy growth ascribed to technology improvements could be considered to be available to a significant extent because of fossil fuels.
Figure 3. World GDP growth compared to world energy consumption growth for selected time periods since 1820. World real GDP trends from 1975 to present are based on USDA real GDP data in 2010$ for 1975 and subsequent. (Estimated by the author for 2015.) GDP estimates for prior to 1975 are based on Maddison project updates as of 2013. Growth in the use of energy products is based on a combination of data from Appendix A data from Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 for 1965 and subsequent.
While renewables are being added, they still represent only a tiny share of the world’s energy consumption.
Figure 4. World energy consumption by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
Thus, we are nowhere near a point where the world economy could continue to function without an adequate supply of oil, coal and natural gas.
9. Many people believe that oil prices will bounce back up again, and everything will be fine. This seems unlikely.
The growing cost of oil extraction that we have been encountering in the last 15 years represents one form of diminishing returns. Once the cost of making energy products becomes high, an economy is permanently handicapped. Prices higher than those maintained in the 2011-2014 period are really needed if extraction is to continue and grow. Unfortunately, such high prices tend to be recessionary. As a result, high prices tend to push demand down. When demand falls too low, prices tend to fall very low.
There are several ways to improve demand for commodities, and thus raise prices again. These include (a) increasing wages of non-elite workers (b) increasing the proportion of the population with jobs, and (c) increasing the amount of debt. None of these are moving in the “right” direction.
Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies points out that once diminishing returns set in, the response is more “complexity” to solve these problems. Government programs become more important, and taxes are often higher. Education of elite workers becomes more important. Businesses become larger. This increased complexity leads to more of the output of the economy being funneled to sectors of the economy other than the wages of non-elite workers. Because there are so many of these non-elite workers, their lack of buying power adversely affects demand for goods that use commodities, such as homes, cars, and motorcycles.1
Another force tending to hold down demand is a smaller proportion of the population in the labor force. There are many factors contributing to this: Young people are in school longer. The bulge of workers born after World War II is now reaching retirement age. Lagging wages make it increasingly difficult for young parents to afford childcare so that both can work.
As noted in Section 5, debt growth is no longer rising as rapidly as in the past. In fact, we are seeing the beginning of interest rate increases.
When we add to these problems the slowdown in growth in the Chinese economy and the new oil that Iran will be adding to the world oil supply, it is hard to see how the oil imbalance will be fixed in any reasonable time period. Instead, the imbalance seems likely to remain at a high level, or even get worse. With limited storage available, prices will tend to continue to fall.
10. The rapid run up in US oil production after 2008 has been a significant contributor to the mismatch between oil supply and demand that has taken place since mid-2014.
Without US production, world oil production (broadly defined, including biofuels and natural gas liquids) is close to flat.
Figure 5. Total liquids oil production for the world as a whole and for the world excluding the US, based on EIA International Petroleum Monthly data.
Viewed separately, US oil production has risen very rapidly. Total production rose by about six million barrels per day between 2008 and 2015.
Figure 6. US Liquids production, based on EIA data (International Petroleum Monthly, through June 2015; supplemented by December Monthly Energy Review for most recent data).
US oil supply was able to rise very rapidly partly because QE led to the availability of debt at very low interest rates. In addition, investors found yields on debt so low that they purchased almost any equity investment that appeared to have a chance of long-term value. The combination of these factors, plus the belief that oil prices would always increase because extraction costs tend to rise over time, funneled large amounts of investment funds into the liquid fuels sector.
As a result, US oil production (broadly defined), increased rapidly, increasing nearly 1.0 million barrels per day in 2012, 1.2 million barrels per day in 2013, 1.7 million barrels per day in 2014. The final numbers are not in, but it looks like US oil production will still increase by another 700,000 barrels a day in 2015. The 700,000 extra barrels of oil added by the US in 2015 is likely greater than the amount added by either Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
World oil consumption does not increase rapidly when oil prices are high. World oil consumption increased by 871,000 barrels a day in 2012, 1,397,000 barrels a day in 2013, and 843,000 barrels a day in 2014, according to BP. Thus, in 2014, the US by itself added approximately twice as much oil production as the increase in world oil demand. This mismatch likely contributed to collapsing oil prices in 2014.
Given the apparent role of the US in creating the mismatch between oil supply and demand, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Saudi Arabia is unwilling to try to fix the problem.
Conclusion
Things aren’t working out the way we had hoped. We can’t seem to get oil supply and demand in balance. If prices are high, oil companies can extract a lot of oil, but consumers can’t afford the products that use it, such as homes and cars; if oil prices are low, oil companies try to continue to extract oil, but soon develop financial problems.
Complicating the problem is the economy’s continued need for stimulus in order to keep the prices of oil and other commodities high enough to encourage production. Stimulus seems to takes the form of ever-rising debt at ever-lower interest rates. Such a program isn’t sustainable, partly because it leads to mal-investment and partly because it leads to a debt bubble that is subject to collapse.
Stimulus seems to be needed because of today’s high extraction cost for oil. If the cost of extraction were still very low, this stimulus wouldn’t be needed because products made using oil would be more affordable.
Decision makers thought that peak oil could be fixed simply by producing more oil and more oil substitutes. It is becoming increasingly clear that the problem is more complicated than this. We need to find a way to make the whole system operate correctly. We need to produce exactly the correct amount of oil that buyers can afford. Prices need to be high enough for oil producers, but not too high for purchasers of goods using oil. The amount of debt should not spiral out of control. There doesn’t seem to be a way to produce the desired outcome, now that oil extraction costs are high.
Rigidities built into the oil price-supply system (as described in Sections 3 and 4) tend to hide problems, letting them grow bigger and bigger. This is why we could suddenly find ourselves with a major financial problem that few have anticipated.
Unfortunately, what we are facing now is a predicament, rather than a problem. There is quite likely no good solution. This is a worry.
Note:
[1] For example, more dividend and interest payments are paid, tending to benefit the financial industry and the elite classes. More of the output of the economy goes to workers in supervisory positions or having advanced education. Other workers–those with more “ordinary” responsibilities–find their wages falling behind the general rise in the cost of living. As a result, they find it increasingly difficult to buy cars, homes, motorcycles, and other goods that use commodities.
The crazy Germans strike again.
After the PV escapades, shutting down nuclear, stressing european grid from seasonal spike generation of their renewables, among other thigs, now comes the mCHP. Actually, it has been coming for almost a past decade or longer, it’s basically concept imported from energy starved Japan, where they rely on imported LPG, which is burned inside small domestic appliance mCHP in the basement. It’s basically a tweaked small cc honda/toyota scooter/industrial engine (roughly 160-300cc displacement) which is connected to hot water boiler and the engine with exhaust waste heat is used for electricity generation, the usual factor is ~3:1 of thermic heat output vs. electricity production, it’s fitted with cat and filters before it goes out in chimney.
Now the smaller family unit costs depending on output/brand EUR10-20k, the state guarantees for 10yrs/60.000hrs of lifecycle operation the buypack electricity prices around 10cents per kWh. There has been also some direct purchasing price subsidy around EUR2-3k per unit/household as well. It is mostly operated on imported natgas (3/4 Russian and 1/4 Norwegian) which can’t be stored that long in comparison to nuclear fuel or coal. I’ve seen some calculations that this idea is 2x more expensive than grid nuclear and almost 10x more expensive than grid coal. But Germans have to like it, so you rest of Europe ubermensch must too or at least face the consequences of destabilized grid anyways, we are the good doers!
It reminds one about the “pre-grid” times of late 19th century where every village had its own small coal fired lokoengine for lights, various farming implements and light industries.. Welcome to the future lolz.
videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQcmHqjx80qRzxAszyGPyMw
For the lazy surfers, the idea of the .de ideologues/technofantasist was that grid remote controlled swarm of such 100.000 households could in this fashion outplace a single nuclear powerplant, also the reaction times to grid command are in minutes, much faster than nuclear/coal. Also if the Carz industry goes down, they can easily shift to producing these mCHP contraptions, actually VW produced a version of this appliance using their small engines, ~20kW electric and +30kW thermal from box in your basement. There are ?10-20M suitable households in Germany alone, i.e. ?100 nuclear plants, plus export markets. BAU will be can kicked in the most unimaginable ways and directions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSp_3gPuvD0
I don’t know what to say really.
But based on what Gail has pointed out many times…
banks
debt
the economy
bankruptcies
oil
transportation industry
disposable income of non-elite workers
resource mining
spare parts
Just a few things off the top of my head that could put a dent in these ideas.
Factories have to manufacture those household energy devices while BAU is still intact. Ships and trucks and trains have to transport all the raw materials, parts, and personnel for any of this to happen. Wages have to be paid, banks have to be solvent, all other infrastructure has to remain functional and be maintained after BAU blows up.
If you’re going to use gas, it needs to be delivered on a house to house basis, as is the case where I live, or piped – for as long as that lasts.
Again, trucks, personnel, ships, pipes, roads, finance, order, all need to stay intact. Any weakness in the system and the whole thing grinds to a halt.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2016/01/29/are-we-heading-for-a-crash-the-guardian/
Thanks for the link to the article giving your opinion, plus some others. Some of the others were pretty unrealistic, in my opinion.
Demand for coal has stalled after more than a decade of consistent growth, the International Energy Agency said 18 December 2015, attributing much of the slowdown to declining demand in China. In its annual coal report, the Paris-based agency said it had cut its five-year forecast for demand growth by 500 million tonnes of coal equivalent, which represents energy generated by burning a metric tonne of coal.
Economic restructuring in China, which represents half of the world’s coal consumption, and a new climate agreement brokered in Paris are largely responsible for the decline, the agency said.
Coal India, the giant state-controlled mining group, has succeeded in boosting output by tens of millions of tonnes a year as part of the Modi government’s reforms — only to find its customers unwilling to buy it.
Piyush Goyal, power and coal minister, said at a business meeting in Kolkata that he had told S Bhattacharya, Coal India’s chairman, to work out how to sell unmanageably high stocks of the coal it had mined even if that meant cutting prices.
“We have come to a situation where we don’t have any more ability to stock coal,” he said, suggesting the company might have to cut back on the production it has battled to increase over the past two years.
For years Indian electricity consumers have complained about lengthy power cuts that were blamed on a lack of fuel for the coal-fired generating stations that supply most to the grid.
Today’s problems are different: generators have coal but are reluctant to sell power to bankrupt electricity distribution companies that have failed to pay their debts.
Overall power demand is in any case sluggish because of the stagnant manufacturing sector.
More http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b9024124-c659-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html#axzz3ycwGzPSl
So much for India…..
‘In the long term, coal in India faces competition from cheap solar power and the need to reduce carbon emissions to limit global warming, but the immediate cause of the current supply glut is the financial collapse of several discoms.’
Queue guffaws of laughter!!!!!!!!!!
In the long term we are all Dead…sorry, but you asked for it.
Actually, many of us in the short term as well.
“Economic restructuring in China, which represents half of the world’s coal consumption, and a new climate agreement brokered in Paris are largely responsible for the decline, the agency said.”
Pretty brilliant. When oil and coal consumption inevitably fall, they can just say it is all part of the plan agreed to at the Paris summit. Do not panic, citizens; it is all part of the plan.
Right!
But doesn’t India need all that coal to manufacture the solar panels and the wind turbines?
Or are we going to plant magic gm seeds in the ground from which solar and wind farms multiply endlessly?
“But doesn’t India need all that coal to manufacture the solar panels and the wind turbines?”
India should be using ethanol from sugarcane; except when there is drought, they should be able to get 8:1 EROEI like Brazil. Perhaps a bit lower energy than solar, in exchange for being dispatchable without needing to add batteries or other storage.
They might consider breeding solar panels and windmills….
You mean like spider-goats and glow in the dark jelly fish-cats?
I’ll get my best people on it right away!
Ka-boom Goes the Bottom of the US Bond Market
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/27/distressed-us-corporate-debt-at-lehman-moment-levels/
Already Lousy Corporate Investment Comes Totally Unglued
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/28/corporate-investment-comes-unglued-rising-cost-of-debt/
Higher interest rates, less debt–not exactly the solution to our financial problems.
We were discussing crops that can survive drought… potatoes were mentioned…
A potato field needs to be kept hydrated at all times. Potatoes can survive drought but do not produce as many potatoes if they do survive.
http://www.ontariopotatoes.ca/how-potatoes-grow
Therefore one must commit rather large tracts of land — and compost (potatoes are nutrient hungry) if you want to feed your family + all the cousins and aunts and uncles and friends of friends who will show up at the gate…
Of course, absolutely 100% correct, there is nothing else ANYONE can suggest otherwise to potatoes production. Best head off to Hooterville, if you do run into trouble the local county extension agent’ Hank Kimball, is the perfect person for YOU to contact
LOL
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-Jn32OCQ7ns
Hmmm, wonder if there is any other method to grow them there potatoes instead of large tracts of land?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PL_gMmK3UtU
Nahhh, obviously’ it can’t be done….
I recognizee this discussion.
Yes, everything is relative. If you want high productivity then irrigation and fertilization helps. Still potatoes are considered to require very little tending. They are certainly not considered to be nutrient hungry if you compare to other crops. (Ok, life is about being nutrient hungry.) You often have potatoes in the end of a crop rotation when nutrients are at the bottom.
I live in north western europe, an area where drought is much less of an issue compared to most other places. I don’t know the local conditions in NZ. The important thing is not only precipitation but also precipitation minus evaporation. So eventhough NZ has good precipitation, evaporation may a problem. Have you tried potatoes, did it work? Potatoes have to be one of the best friends of the self sufficient farmer. Without this friendship you will have problems. Mayby you could grow it after or before the drought season if that is a problem.
The alternative to veggies is being a (shep, cattle)herd. Growing grass is of course easier than growing potatoes. Your diet would then be meat and milk. You will need a scythe to stockpile hay for the drought season and a billhook the clear brushwood.This requires more land than just living on veggies. I know that in a fast collapse scenario “the zombies” will eat your herd after the collapse if you are unlucky.
Chris, excellent reply, but Fast Eddy has tried nothing but excuses..they seem to work the best for him.
I have no problem growing potatoes. I do water them.
As pointed out — if you do not water them they may survive — but the crop you get will be a fraction of the size of what you would get if you irrigated.
I could plan all 200sqm of raised beds in potatoes — even with irrigation that cannot feed a family of 4. If irrigation were not available I suspect that would not feed one person.
But this is all moot.
I am waiting for an answer to my question of:
What do you do when your neighbours and friends and relatives show up by the hundreds and say hey Chris – we are hungry — can you help us?
What will you do?
Give them a crash course of self sufficiency. If possible, have them growing potatoes as fast as possible. The really difficult question is what to do with old, elderly, pregnant, sick, or otherwise handicapped friends and family who can´t take care of themselves in any way. These will be handled case by case, I suppose.
The thing is….
They will already be starving…
Are these miracle potatoes that grow in a few hours?
Sorry but that answer is not an answer.
Will you explain you barely have enough food for you and your family — and gently tell them to leave?
What happens when the children start to bawl ‘I’m hungry mummy… I’m so hungry’
I haven’t even gotten to the part where the rough and tough types show up armed… and demanding food…..
But one issue at a time
You have not answered my question.
What will you do when they reject your offer to teach them how to grow potatoes and insist that you feed them?
I know I will not get a straight answer.
Because there are only two options:
1. Share what you have and everyone starves.
2. Pull out a weapon and drive them off of your property. Drive those weeping mothers and their children out at gun point — because if you do not – you are guaranteed to starve
So is it going to be 1. or 2.?
Usually a no-win scenario leads to a creative response. Such a creative response I would prefer, would be to offer a glimmer of hope, like saying: “you know the guy Christopher in Sweden, he has ample storages, you get to him and everything will be alright”. And I suppose Christopher just says, “you know the guy Van Kent in Finland, his house is overflowing with food, just go to him.” And then what happens is no longer within our responsibility, or field of control.
But the problem were the people who are handicapped.. Unable to walk anywhere on their own. Such problems have historically been solved by town hall meetings, where everybody is required to send a tenth of their resources for common good. Each family in the town or village is required to house one person or one family.
And then there are large scale famines like the period in 1866-1868 in Finland for instance, those years extraordinary measures are required like mixing tree bark in the porridge and bread to make it last. But whatever is done, still, a large portion of the population is lost each winter.
Life or death situations result in pretty creative responses, usually.
Seriously — you are going to tell your brothers and sisters and their children to basically f-off down the road knowing that there is nothing for them?
If my brothers showed up with their families on the last planes to NZ…. I’d absolutely not shoo them away….. we’d open the party snacks and the whiskey and we’d just run the engine until the oil vapourized and end it….
I very much doubt anyone on this site would be sending family away…
Then of course we have the mad dogs with guns…. how to you keep them from taking what you have? It is pretty much impossible to secure a garden against armed men would want to raid the food…..
Remember the so-called refugee attacks in Cologne — 1000+ men descended on the city ignoring all laws and having their way with women…
Now imagine 1000+ … or 10,000+ refugees from the nearby town showing up and rampaging from small farm to small farm tearing up the vegetables — ripping branches off fruit trees — killing every farm animal they can find….
What do you do about them? You better get a few of these along with a hell of a lot of ammo…
http://gijoeelite.com/Images/GIODDBALL/GICOO-80012.jpeg
You could add :
3. Give them poisoned food or water.
4. Improvisation using a combination of 1+2+3.
Worked well with the aborigines.
They were given poisoned flour.
‘Give them poisoned food or water’
Only for the nasty mother in law and that loud mouth cousin….. I think most people would be troubled by poisoning babies….
Hey here’s an idea — call up the CIA and get one of those gas canisters that they arranged for their ISIS mates to drop on the women and children in Homs Syria…..
3. Team up and go loot the neighbours.
Easy answer, show them the movie “Martian” and have them do the same
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo-jNVt9xhQ
There you are…see, Fast Eddy, you make problems out of your lively imagination.
Boy, what a worry wort you truly are….creating hysteria and anxiety
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrQC67aPBU
Stay Calm, stay focused…most of what you project in the future likely won’t occur.
Eddy, family is always family. You know that.
The problem starts with cousins, former colleagues, friends and facebook friends etc. etc.
The problem you present is actually quite interesting. One night last summer we had ten or so chicken disappear. They came in at night and took a few for a party or something. Now, that was last summer. Not even Post-BAU or anything. Then, also last summer there was this one woman who was biking around the lake early in the morning, and just stopped by to collect some eggs. When confronted, she just said; “Oh I thought this chicken house was common state property because everything is just so beutifull around here”.
Currently barb wire, ditches and “minefield” -signs, would not be much appreciated.
But all the best tactics are about not being seen, grey man tactics, being invisible. If too much fuss is being made, you make yourself a target needlessly. So, perhaps the best way to proceed, would be to make everything look like (camouflage) some horde already “lived off the land”. And having good neighbour relations so that if a 10.000 horde is approaching, some trees can be blown to block the roads to cut all easy routes within tens of miles.
All in all, I would rather avoid direct confrontations when possible, but again, thats just me.
I’ve researched what happened during mass famines in the past looking specifically at the Irish Potato Famine….
A few thoughts on that …
– Rates of crime shot up dramatically — loads of instances of food theft from farms
– Ireland was a functioning country — there were police to stop total food theft rampages
– when BAU ends there will be no police —- there will be no government to help — there will be no Oxfams — there will most definitely be food theft rampages…. I cannot imagine who laying a few trees across the road will stop them
– as for being on friendly terms with your neighbours that all sounds wonderful — but won’t they see you as the friendly neighbour who surely will share his harvest?
One of the biggest barriers that stand in the way of moving forward in one’s understanding of the world is cognitive dissonance. It is very difficult to know when he is stepping in to protect you from a reality that you may not be able to handle.
I seek to bludgeon Mr Cognitive Dissonance whenever I sense he is impeding my thought processes.
I suspect one risks madness and/or clinical depression by taking him on …
It is probably not a game for everyone.
Eddy, as for the long-long term, not much hope, I´m well aware of that. What happens the first couple of years of Post-BAU, well, there can be all sort of contingency plans. Like a toolbox, when the right set of circumstances arrive, pick up the next contingency plan, and so forth.
I´ve been driving a lot on a c. 30km radius and looking for large glass walls in cardealerships, abandoned greenhouses, rooftops and industrial facilities. When something or somebody comes knocking unexpectedly, maybe some day the conversation with Artleads pops in mind and the big malls with glass or polycarbonate roofing will come in handy..
What I meant with the blowing up trees and stuff to block the roads, was that if you can redirect a horde, because the other fork in the road is passable and easy, you just might make things a wee bit easier on yourself.
But, yup, a heavy dose of cognitive dissonance is constantly lurking at the back of the skull, ready to take over.
Let’s put it this way:
If you wake up tomorrow and we have our Lehman moment on steroids — there have been a series of massive defaults in the oil and mining industries…
Fear has gripped the banks — nobody is lending — trade has stopped — nobody believes the central banks can do anything.
Within days the panic starts as shelves are not re-stocked in shops because the economy has seized up.
Let’s say all of this takes place over the next two weeks.
The masses begin to panic — they realize they are going to soon starve.
Relatives and friends pack up the car and kids and the dogs and head to where they know there is food — good ol uncle Van Kent has a farm — he’ll take care of us — they pack up the car and head to your place….
Your neighbours — who I am sure must number in the thousands — (I was looking at the census the other day for our area 13,000 people are within a one hour walk of us … and we are rural…. hundreds of thousands are within half a tank of gas — and they know this is farming country)…. they will be showing up right then and there …
They won’t wait until you have scavenged the windows from malls to build greenhouses (oh and btw — won’t the mall windows be smashed by looters — and if they are not how will you get them all the way to your farm — which I am assuming is in a fairly remote rural location?)
The tool box is useless —- you will be overwhelmed…. the problem is simply too massive …
7.5 Billion hungry desperate and no doubt angry people — and a few islands of food production.
Best of luck.
Raised beds require more water since evaporation is higher. To decrease watering plant at a wider distance between plants. This decreases productivity / he but without water productivity will be even lower if you plant densely.
“What do you do when your neighbours and friends and relatives show up by the hundreds and say hey Chris – we are hungry — can you help us?”
This is a weak link. I mainly trust on my good luck that the numbers will not be by the hundreds. Maybe my good luck will even give me (and you) many more years of BAU before it collapses or the COG types around here will prove to be correct. (Though I admit your scenario seems more likely from my limited knowledge )
Beside that I will of course lie and claim that there is no food around here and so on. In a situation like that you have to expect violence. I have no better plan than improvisation. Do you have any better ideas?
‘This is a weak link’ I’d call that a show stopper… not a weak link…. because it is a 100% certainty…
‘Do you have any better ideas?’ I don’t actually.
I have thought this through quite carefully — and given I don’t even have enough food production to feed even 4 people — and I know there are going to be people headed my way asking for/demanding food….. I recognize that I am screwed.
The barge concept is the only one that I can see offering a glimmer of hope of survival … (if I pretend the fuel pond problem can be contained)….. but so what — you float about for a year in complete boredom — then you come to shore at some point to what?
Civilization will be a burned out hulk — if anyone is around they will be living in the harshest conditions…. ‘The Road’
I’d like to live another 30 years because one can have a quality life until late 70’s…. but life post BAU will be a grind…. it will be continuous suffering…
Better to try to pack in as much living in the here and now — then hope to go down without too much suffering when BAU finishes up.
“‘This is a weak link’ I’d call that a show stopper… not a weak link…. because it is a 100% certainty…”
You are such a party killer. Do you get 100% with or without rounding?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/30/the-big-oil-bailouts-begin/
‘For the last 70-odd years, Pemex has almost single-handedly bankrolled Mexico’s public spending. The money it has generated has helped fund roads, subway systems, bridges, schools, universities, Olympic stadiums, fire fighters and police forces, hospitals and airports. It has created — and maintained — millions of jobs, paid (admittedly very meager) state benefits, and filled offshore bank accounts for many of its executives, contractors and well-connected politicians; and during the Tequila Crisis hangover years in the mid-1990s, it helped bail out a fair number of Mexican (and now largely foreign-owned) banks and Wall Street investment firms’
A good example of how $30 oil is a very big problem…..
As things are going, I only see one possible path in my case, which I will explain in case it could help someone else.
There is no point in settling down as an organic farmer (too expensive and too many people would show up) and getting all the needed food from ag is too complicated if you don’t have some years of trying. So I know there are two plots just a dozen miles away, somewhat high in the hills, where walnuts are grown: already producing trees are the only source of calories that will certainly be there. They should be suplemented with chickens and vegies gardening, but they stand as a primary source of healthy food.
I don’t mean I would kill the owners or the workers, but at some point they will run out of something (lighters, chickens, other kind of food, sanity…) and a tradeoff could be reached. Or perhaps they just leave the place to get close to their relatives. One of those places is rather secluded and very few people would get there, I am sure. Blocking the roads could help very much with this, while it’s possible -but not probable- somebody else has just the same idea as a I do and would compete.
It is not yet a plan, just an idea. Walnuts and eggs as a base diet doesn’t look bad.
The other option, more complicated, is cattle. I suppose people will leave towns as they become unlivable, but they will do it along the rivers because the need of water to drink while they walk (I wouldn’t be surprised if roads tend to get blocked with chaos). So if you set your herd away from rivers and main roads (perhaps assisted with a solar pump) you could be pretty fine if you have some propane to avoid making fire and smoke that would betray your presence. It is said that without actual PK inputs surrounding land productivity would decay to a tenth, so generally speaking sheepherding would be the easiest way to get something of it (and would provide leather). Also, concentrating manure is the only way to improve ground fertility and get a decent harvest. And once the dust has settled you just move near a river.
If I lived by the sea, I suppose I would get a boat huge enough to set a couple of animals for a quarantine.
In any event, confrontation and weapons are the last option, but as Van Kent says: some times some things just have to be done, in which case it’s better to do them properly. Just a few thoughts
I choose what’s behind Door 3.
If my wife would be ok with the boat option — I’d have the Thomas Malthus stocked and ready to roll …. 50 cases of good Marlborough wine on board….
Christian, the two plots already in place..
Go buy something from them. Then go ask around who would want that kind of produce they have there, and go buy again. And again. Get to know them. Ask about how things are going, what they would need to increase production etc. Try and figure out what they need and then how you could get the things they need. Now, and also in Post-BAU if its in any way possible. Don´t try to explain or teach them anything, let them do the talking, you just listen and learn. Doom-stuff should be strictly prohibited because there is a very high probability they are not regulars in FW..
The problem as I see it, is that while settling down is dangerous because you have marauding bands to worry about. Or Eddys hordes of tens of thousands. But being on the move while millions are simultaneously on the move is even worse. So two options come to mind. Settling down in a way or in a place that is under the radar. Or being of some extraordinary good use to several already settled organic farmers. Everybody needs something.. If its possible to provide the things several organic farmers need, then you can lay low, while the organic farms bear the brunt of the risk.
And if you learn this skill to be usefull to settled organic farms, then you know you can move around to other areas and always find ways to get what you need, without risking your feet to caltrops.
But, hey, that’s just a suggestion how I would do it..
Settling next to a commercial organic farm operation has its merits…. however I still think you run into the same problem —– such a place will be a magnet for the hungry…
I struggle to come up with a good option….
I think that doing what I have done – namely setting up a small farming operation outside of a small town and stocking up on dry goods — has minimal chance for success. As mentioned even in the best conditions I cannot feed 4 people. Throw in the fact that there will be people headed this way wanting food. We probably have 6 months of food in stock …. but how do we keep the hordes away from that — shoot them? I guarantee some will be armed….
I suppose the options most likely to succeed involve hunkering down where nobody will go — and loading up on food, firewood, guns and ammo – minimum one year supply. And waiting until the massive die-off is done….
This could involve a very remote cabin that has no road connections.
The other could involve the boat/barge idea… however there is the issue of dealing with winter weather – which is not so bad here in NZ and only lasts about 10 weeks…. but those would be pretty rough weeks with no heat….
I suppose the two ideas could be combined… the boat gets loaded with supplies — you head off into a remote area — and keep an eye out for remote vacant properties and establish a base.
One has to wonder how many other people might get the same idea and load whatever they have onto their boats and take to the ocean…. they’d likely quickly perish however as they’d no doubt not have a large supply of food on board….
I think that using firearms to warn any such boats off would be much more doable than trying to shoot women and children arriving at the farm gate….
Sailing looks nice, while I have almost no experience. And Van Kent, what you say is very near of what I am thinking
You can only look at this on an individual basis and through the lens of a set of scenarios.
If the worst happens, the stores of food will be gone in days, govt handouts will fill a gap until that runs out too, millions of people in cities will not know what to do – mass panic ensues.
People in isolated areas that are already growing their own food and have supplies of everything else they need may be ok for a while. But their luck will run out too at some point. Does it really matter how that happens?
To me, it’s entirely irrelevant what a few individuals do when hungry neighbours turn up at their door after the whole world has gone to hell in a handbasket.
If this collapse scenario is what plays out, tending to your veggies will be the least of your concerns. And I know you understand that FE but in a way by asking the question that you did, you’re giving false hope to those that think they will even get that far.
Rick, if the nuclear reactors poison the seas. While climate change has a field day of +6 to +17C. We´ll be having dead oceans, mostly dead barren and radiated land, and therefore the final bottleneck might be as few as a few hundred mating pairs somewhere in NZ.
Now, I don´t live in NZ, so, its unlikely I will see 2020, highly unlikely I or anybody in my family will see 2050 and almost impossible I know anybody that has descendants alive in 2100.
These Post-BAU year 1 considerations are mostly for common amusement.
So should we rename him Fast Adam?
Yup, more likely NZ will have a lot of 6ft, blonde, blue eyed, hockey playing Fast Adams in 2100, then the others of Gails community making the “cut”.
If he can get water the potatoes.
“Now, I don´t live in NZ, so, its unlikely I will see 2020”
In all my life I never thought I would hear someone utter words like these… and actually mean it. And for the reasons that we talk about here.
I can see things going a little longer than that until the trucks stop delivering the rice and beans and the lights go off for good. Feel free to call that wishful thinking if you want… because that’s what it is.
Oh, and what if you don’t “fancy” your mating pair?
Eddy, if you don´t fancy your mating pair, you just have a stiff upper lip and do it anyway for king and country.
Heheh… the thing is when I decided that I would not be a breeder …. I arranged it so that breeding was not possible….
One only need look at the Black Friday videos that I posted — or the article describing what happened in NY City during the short black out….
To understand that there is not going to be an orderly queue of people at the farm gate asking ‘Suh … can I please have a carrot for my baby’
However The Little House on the Prairie aficionados are unable to accept that this is what is coming there way….
So I attempt to break through the normalcy bias presenting a scenario that they can relate to … which they would consider highly likely within the parameters of reality that they are able to envision ….
And demonstrate just how totally hopeless the situation is.
Fast Eddy – breaking through the normalcy bias!
There’s your campaign slogan right there!
By the way, how do you guys manage disease and pests on yer taters?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_potato_diseases
Quite a list huh.
My old man and everyone else around here sprays them at least twice otherwise no taters.
We are not spraying anything on what we are growing …. we are working off of the theory that if the soil is well-managed … that leads to healthy plants …. and no need for spray….
The Irish no doubt worked off of that theory as well…
I was speaking to an Amish man at the St Jacobs market in Ontario some years ago — he was selling honey — I was waiting for the wives to finish shopping….. so I had quite a lot of time to interrogate him on all things Amish….
One thing that surprised me (how naive I was) was that the Amish do not farm using organic methods….. seems they pick and choose which gifts they will accept from BAU …. and which to eschew… (hmmm… who else do I know who did that…..)
He told me that they most definitely use all the modern farming methods including urea and pesticides….
He said that if he did not spray his crops he could not obtain financing from the banks to buy more land for the many, many sons that he had fathered….
Obviously the banks do not have the confidence in the healthy soil theory….. and a lost crop means they get stuck with a hunk of farmland….
This farming thing is a very precarious thing indeed.
Not only is it very difficult to be self-sufficient without BAU lending a helping hand….
There is that issue of having to feed the world from your little patch…
Feed the world…. feed the world…. sing along…..
“He said that if he did not spray his crops he could not obtain financing from the banks to buy more land for the many, many sons that he had fathered….”
I think I can see the problem there … Like, if you have 4 sons, you have to buy 4 new farms for them? That seems a bit much. On the other hand, having your father give you a farm must be a nice way to get started, probably a better bet than an Ivy League education.
Did somebody say zombies?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytD8eB1gdG0
And I quote…
“We know what needs to be done and we do it. We’re the ones who live.”
Ironically, in The Walking Dead, a large group of “walkers” is called a herd…
I betcha you´ll be having a lot of “Am I the only Zen one around here?”-moments, when the herd finally get a good healthy dose of reality coming their way.
Ha ha! Actually, the guy you hear speaking for the first minute becomes a Zen master later on in the series and pretty good with an Aikido stick!
Me, I’ll be depressed and panicking like everyone else!
Boeing Stock Tumbles After Drop In Revenue, Cash Flow; Huge Cut To Guidance
The result: moments ago BA announced Q4 earnings which while beating expectations (which were sharply lowered in recent months) of $1.27, were still a 31% drop compared to Q4 of last year, driven by a 4% drop in the top line, leading to a substantial decline in gross profit from $3.8 billion to just 2.9 billion, and a whopping 38% plunge in operating cash flow to just $3.1 billion (and $2.5 biliion in FCF).
The sharp decline took place even as Boeing benefited generously from America’s numerous wars around the globe, leading to a 7% increase in military aircraft revenue in the fourth quarter, however it was not enough to offset a 7% drop in commercial aircraft deliveries, which at 182 in Q4 were 13 lower from the 195 a year ago.
But the biggest hit to Boeing was its slashed guidance, which came in far below consensus estimates:
• Boeing’s 2016 Core EPS guidance of between $8.15 and $8.35 was far below the $9.42 expected;
• Boeing’s 2016Revenue of $93-$95 billion was also well below the $97.3 billion expected.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-27/boeing-stock-tumbles-after-drop-revenue-cash-flow-huge-cut-guidance
By my estimates we are at cut number 984…. death is near
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sprung another surprise on investors Friday, adopting a negative interest-rate strategy to spur banks to lend in the face of a weakening economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/bank-of-japan-adopts-negative-interest-rates-by-vote-of-5-4
“This clearly shows the BOJ wanted to weaken the yen and raise the price of import goods and boost inflation,” said Daisuke Karakama, an economist at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo.
They keep trying to incite hyperinflation …. but it’s not working!
I reckon they just go for gold in 88…. print the whopping immense and incredible and most wonderful excellent sum of
999,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 yen
And see if that delivers a good result…..
Anyone care to bet that doing something like that would not result in hyperinflation – rather it would just cause the Japanese financial system to do this
http://www.whataboutpollution.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/giphy.gif
The Peoria, Ill.-based company now expects 2016 revenue of about $42 billion, more than one-third below the company’s peak of $65.9 billion four years ago.
The projected 10% decline is twice what it had forecast for the year in October and would leave revenue at below what it had before its acquisition of mining equipment company Bucyrus International Inc. in 2011.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/caterpillar-gives-strong-profit-outlook-1453985495
‘more than one-third below the company’s peak of $65.9 billion four years ago’
wow…..
This is pretty awesome too!
Torture of Gazans :: Bone Breaking Method of Israel Soldiers
Watch Israeli soldiers repeatedly break the arms of the captives with large stones…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRcuy5jOplg
How are you feeling after watching that? You want more???? Ok…. more it is….
This is like the All Time HITS of Breaking Bones… a compilation of the most brutal treatment of brown skinned people every created…
Over 4 minutes of Non Stop ACTION! Beat those bastards — how dare they protest the stealing of their land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faHAcRL-5LU
Palestinians — the new North American Indians…. Ironically the MSM would have us believe they are the killers……
Sheeple are so stupid…. they will believe anything the MSM tells them to believe… 🙂
Thank you FE.
And an anti-Zionist comedian is banned from Hong Kong ….
http://variety.com/2016/film/asia/comedian-dieudonne-barred-from-hong-kong-1201690732/
Go figure….
133 Israeli children have been killed by Palestinians and 2,089 Palestinian children have been killed by Israelis since September 29, 2000.
Chart showing that 6 times more Palestinians have been killed than Israelis. 1,217 Israelis and at least 9,271 Palestinians have been killed since September 29, 2000.
11,671 Israelis and 86,974 Palestinians have been injured since September 29, 2000.
http://www.ifamericansknew.org/
Israel: White Phosphorus Use Evidence of War Crimes
Israel’s repeated firing of white phosphorus shells over densely populated areas of Gaza during its recent military campaign was indiscriminate and is evidence of war crimes, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2009/03/25/israel-white-phosphorus-use-evidence-war-crimes
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/28/news/economy/cracks-in-the-us-economy/index.html
‘Cracks in America’s economy are growing’
“On Friday, the government will release data that show how the U.S. economy fared in the last three months of the year. Many experts forecast that the U.S. economy barely grew — about 1% or less — between October and December of 2015 compared to a year ago.
A key sign of confidence is orders for new products and equipment — known as “durable goods” — placed by companies to power their business. Orders for durable goods fell 5% between November and December, according to the Commerce Department.
The news on durable goods caused Barclays (BCS) to lower its GDP forecast to 0.4% on Thursday.”
1. American are not spending much
2. U.S. manufacturing already in recession
3. Corporate America is hurting
“We’re seeing extreme conditions unlike anything we have experienced before just about everywhere we look,” Cook said Tuesday.
Ok, here we go for the actual final Govt. GDP numbers for the 4th qtr. 2015:
http://www.sltrib.com/home/3476240-155/us-economic-growth-slowed-to-07
Washington • The U.S. economy’s growth slowed sharply in the final three months of 2015 to a 0.7 percent annual rate. Consumers slowed spending, businesses cut back on investment and global problems trimmed exports.
The slowdown could renew doubts about the durability of the 6½-year-old economic expansion, though most economists expect growth to rebound in the current January-March quarter.
rebound why?
Yeah Ed, why do most economists think the economy will rebound? Good Question. MSM seems predictably to have a propensity to spin a positive out of a negative. I can’t remember the last time I saw an article suggesting most economists project a recession. Then the question leads to; who are these economists? Is there an 800 hotline to call ‘most economists’ to get a positively biased decision?
Stilgar,
I think the positive spin is due to that they want (or are comissioned for) people and investors to spend their money ASAP.
More generally, they’re seeing the economy as a perpetual motion machine (witout any limits), and seem to think it must work like the weather: after the rain the sun will shine again, it has to, one day or another. Hence the many illusory cycles they invent in order to support their wishful thinking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgGvd1UPZ88
Unfortunately…. the roots are severed… all is not well…. in the garden….
And here we have what is known as a Mega Moron:
“This was a Wall Street bet, and the bet was that the price of oil, a theoretically finite commodity, wouldn’t go below a certain level,” says Martin Bienenstock, co-head of bankruptcy and restructuring at law firm Proskauer Rose.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/what-s-not-to-like-about-cheap-oil-well-
Dear Finite Worlders
I previously mentioned the controversy about TMAO and red meat. As it happens, Dr. Michael Roizen will speak about that tomorrow. The link is:
http://fatsummit.com
If you have not seen Dr. Roizen on things like the Dr. Oz show, here is a video. A few minutes will give you a good idea what he is like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYYsIiDY7so
Here is how his conversation tomorrow is billed. I hope the formatting survives the cut and paste. If it doesn’t, I hope you are able to piece it together. (I don’t know exactly what he will say.)
Don Stewart
The Meat Controversy
What You’ll Learn –
TMAO (trimethylamine N-oxide) – what it is and why it’s harmful
The red meat controversy
Gut health (keep your TMAO)
Can you imagine that a company like Monsanto might genetically engineer a plant that would turn on humans? Not deliberately, but the plant just turns out to have killer tendencies. Well, this is what happens in the BBC’s 2009 remake of “The Triffids”. Watch the first two minutes, and you will find out the reason why this fictitious company wanted to develop the plants (and it’s not to kill people). In fact, it’s relevant to this blog. (Don’t try this at home, Don Stewart!).
No need to be concerned. All one has to do is stock up on their ROUND UP, and hopefully Monsanto will be able adjust the formula for these mutant man eating plants!
Now that is what I call associate selling and a short life marketing cycle…
What we need….more economic expansion.
I thought they’d already done that — intentionally — GMO….
“Can you imagine that a company like Monsanto might genetically engineer a plant that would turn on humans? ”
A selectively bred grass (not even GMO) in Texas adapted to drought by emitting cyanide when disturbed during extreme drought conditions, killing a bunch of cattle:
http://www.wired.com/2012/06/cyanide-and-poisoned-cows/
Fascinating and scary. What other accidental and dangerous, but as yet unknown, permutations lie ahead, as the climate morphs?
The only other bright spark on the DOW takes a big blow;
Amazon has announced Q4 earnings:
Earnings per share $1.82, vs expected $2.76
Shares were down 13% immediately after results…
Wow….. that is a massive miss….
Just a brutal attack on the Beast….
I see the “problem” in more simplistic terms. Infinite growth on a finite planet. No matter how you analyse it this is fundamentally the issue and the end result is the same, Collapse. I don’t say this lightly but our best case scenario is a virus wipes out 4/5ths of the world population. The alternatives are too horrible to imagine.
“our best case scenario is a virus wipes out 4/5ths of the world population.”
Well, in Latin America this zika virus thing is zooming away. When an infected mosquito bites a pregnant mother in the first 3 months of pregnancy, her baby is liable to become microcephalic, with a shrunken head. Funnily enough, when I visited the Pitt Rivers Museum in Oxford, England, some years ago, there were some examples of shrunken heads, and these were from South America. A very different phenomenon from the zika cases, naturally.
Gail has occasionally mentioned approvingly how in the past, tribes killed some of their offspring to avoid overpopulation. Probably it would be kindest to leave these kids outdoors for the wild animals to take away. In England we’ve even had cases of babies being savaged by foxes that have got into people’s homes, so there are enough animals around, even in urban areas. Even so, you can’t rule out our decadent pop stars, like Madonna, wanting to adopt one of these kids as a sort of fashion accessory.
Pitt Rivers Museum:
Shrunken heads of the Upper Amazon
http://www.prm.ox.ac.uk/shrunkenheads.html
Actually — a virus wiping out the entire population …. put us out of our misery….
Viruses are definitely up there on the list of things that could wipe us out. It was diseases of various sorts that cut back European populations when they ran into bottlenecks.
Zika is far worse than a killing virus. It leave a dependent human for society to care for over 80 years. There may come a day when euthanizing such dependents becomes socially acceptable. 1% schizophrenia, 1% autism, 1% zika. Three percent of the population dependent from birth could be a problem. The first two are on a spectrum some are functional but the idea is increasing source of dependent humans from birth is a problem. Please pass the glyphosate.
There as a tee vee series out of the UK – Utopia — the premise is the Elders introduce a means to make all but a small number of people infertile…. https://thepiratebay.se/search/utopia/0/99/200
Unfortunately that would only accelerate the deflationary death spiral …..
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Wow, so much for a 26 handle on WTI.
WTI +1.47 to 33.77
It’s just a typical bear market rally. Sheesh.
Keep in mind, oil price had done most of it’s drop before world stock markets started into a bear market.
Dear Finite Worlders
I suggested that some of you might like to watch a discussion between Mark Hyman, MD and Dean Ornish, MD, where they debate some of the findings of medical science as it relates to a healthy diet. Some of the disputes are easily understood.
For example, when someone does an experiment by feeding a group of people who have previously been eating soft drinks and french fries, and replaces that diet with butter and dark chocolate, the replacement diet may well improve some health markers. But does that ‘prove that butter and dark chocolate are healthy’? Well…not really. It may be that eating more steamed veggies would have improved those health markers even more. Any moderately smart person can understand the question, and, with a little help, figure out what the experimenter actually did.
But many other questions tend not to be very accessible to the layman. For example, many of those in the neo- Healthy Fat camp argue that we are, in the end, going to do what our hormones tell us to do. And our hormones do not react favorably on a low-fat diet. Consequently, the thing to do is to eat ‘healthy fats’, such as avocados and walnuts and olives. Low-fat advocates such as Dean Ornish, argue that the high caloric density of avocados and walnuts and olives are eventually going to create problems, because we are taking in too much energy. Then another expert will mention the Adventists health study, which showed that those Seventh Day Adventists eating nuts and seeds lived the longest. Get another 50 doctors in the room and you will add 50 more opinions. In short, the non-expert has a hard time doing anything other than believe the doctor he trusts the most.
And that is the gist of the argument that Ugo Bardi makes in his current Cassandra’s Legacy blog:
‘So, I went fact-checking over the Web and I found plenty of sites where people who claim to be as expert as Biglino (or more) in ancient Hebrew demolish (or attempt to demolish) his interpretations of the biblical text.
As I was wading through these elaborate discussions, I found myself totally at loss. Who was right? Biglino or his detractors? Really, how could I tell? And, while I was at that, I had a sudden flash of enlightenment: it is not just a question of ancient Hebrew. I saw myself in the shoes (or, better, behind the glasses) of a normal person who has no in-depth knowledge of climate science and who is trying to understand something of the debate on climate. Clearly, such a person would find him/herself in the same position as I am in respect to Biglino’s Hebrew. The average layman lacks the intellectual tools necessary to judge in a debate on climate science just as I don’t have the correct intellectual tools to judge on a debate on the meaning of ancient Hebrew words.
So, here is the epiphany: the real world is so complex that for each one of us there is just a tiny slice of reality where we can have sufficient knowledge to judge what’s true and what’s not. The rest is forever shrouded in a fog of ignorance. Now we see as in a mirror, darkly; maybe one day we’ll see the truth face to face. But, for the time we can only judge on the basis of the principle of authority. About the Bible, just as about climate, we believe the people whom we trust.’
Gail is fond of making up ‘declining marginal returns’ limits. I suggest that our advanced society is reaching a limit on our ability to deal intelligently with complex questions. Will everything collapse this year, or are we just at the beginning of a brave new world where robotics and drugging of the microbiome lift humans far above the humble status we enjoy today?
There is a lot to be said for gardening….Don Stewart
Don, have you heard anything about how good quality fats help the good gut microbes do their job?
We were talking the other night about what we can make out of fava beans, minced fava beans, fava bean flour, and our chemist who have done some studies at the university about fava bean nutrition, pointed out that almost everything should have small amounts of fats included, to make the foods easier to digest. So, for instance, if you are making a spelt porridge just a hint of canola oil should be added to make it more digestible. Or something made of wheatgrass should have small amount of fats included.
Don, do you know of any studies about such things? I don´t want to be asking our chemist constantly stupid questions, so, I just thought I´d ask you.
Van Kent
I suggest that you consult George Mateljan’s web site
World’s Healthiest Foods
I don’t have time to do the search right now, but I think you will figure it out pretty quickly.
The short answer is that many nutrients are fat soluble, and having some fat in your diet is essential for proper absorption of those nutrients.
If you want to learn a lot more about fat, some of it contentious, check out
The Fat Summit Mark Hyman
You will find that many medical people are having good results with pretty high fat diets. Or check Steven Masley, a cardiologist in Florida who has just published a book and has a good web site.
Don Stewart
Dr Andreas Eenfeldt,aka the Diet Doctor has been on message for years.
All the nutrition you need to know
Michael Pollan
“food” is something your great-grandmother would recognize. All these nutritional studies add nothing to this – or are wrong,
I agree. Too much fuss. Keep it simple.
Also, when you’re starving, you won’t be asking any of those questions.
Just ask the guy who spent a year adrift on the high seas…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Salvador_Alvarenga
“He survived on a diet of raw fish, turtles, small birds, sharks, and rainwater.”
He came across a dead whale and had a feast!
“Shortly after the release of his book, the family of Ezequiel Cordoba sued Alvarenga for one million dollars, claiming he survived by eating their relative.”
He claims that his buddy died and he eventually threw the body overboard…
“He claims that his buddy died and he eventually threw the body overboard…”
Have you seen Life of Pi? If not, I recommend do, and don’t read further.
** SPOILERS ***
You can go with the fantastic story of a boy surviving on a lifeboat with a tiger, or you can go with a bunch of people on a lifeboat killing and eating each other until only one remained. Which story is true, and which is a coping mechanism to deal with the reality of what you did to survive?
‘Life of Pi?’
I have not – but is that not the movie with the boy and the tiger on a boat? Did the tiger eat him?
I have a limit of one Hollywood movie per year so won’t be watching this — feel free to expose the punchline
Mathew, I couldn’t help reading further! Tell someone not to do something and usually the opposite happens. I’ll check it out.
Thank you for finally stating the obvious
It is so amusing to observe these diet obsessed types point to such and such study — then the next year when that study is debunked they point to the new and improved study … and on and on and on….
It’s pretty damn simple — eat real food instead of processed food — don’t drink too much — don’t smoke — get regular moderate exercise…. and you will feel good and you will likely live a long life… and you will feel good when you wake up most days….
I know plenty of people who have ate shit – drank too much — did no exercise — and lived till 80 without being dumped into a nursing home to fester….. now they problem did not wake up feeling great most days…
Breaking News!!! No matter what you do you will not live forever. And do you really want to live to be 100???
This is an outstanding essay on this topic http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/
When I was a kid in the 50’s clothing was the social signifier. If you saw someone out dressed informally, you knew the were lower class. Men went to the ball game in jackets, ties and hats.
Now you can’t tell by clothing, billionaires wear hoodies. Food is the signifier. If you see someone eating a twinkie, you know they are lower class.
The most extreme sign of this is behind the bakery counter of my local Whole Foods there are two bread slicing machines — conventional and organic. I guess if Pierpontella eats one crumb of non-organic bread he won’t get into Harvard. This is like the laws of kosher food.
‘I guess if Pierpontella eats one crumb of non-organic bread he won’t get into Harvard.’
I am so tempted to circulate that comment to a few parents I know………
Dear Don
I enjoyed this post so much I’m going to read it again!
What Ugo is drawing attention to is very much a problem of our times. We are awash in information. We have a glut of it. After sifting through the slush pile for many years, many hours a day, you come across a few gems, you bookmark them, maybe purchase a related book on the subject, delve a bit deeper into the mysteries.
This extracted data we call knowledge and put in on a pedestal somewhere in our minds. Beyond that point, when encountering contradictory information, the usual response is a kneejerk reaction defending the previously learned point of view. It becomes very hard to change our minds even when conclusive data materialises to debunk what we think we know to be certain.
In general, I would say that the vast majority of people around the world accept what they are told by authority figures… without question. They do not look beyond the basic information they are fed. At every level, from govt, to their their personal doctor, to their local bank clerk, to the teachers at their local school, they accept whatever they are told… without question. It’s the way things are. Why would they lie to me?
On the other hand, there are some people that are born with a natural mistrust of authority and authority figures. We detest groupthink. We feel uncomfortable going along with the crowd. Because of this, we often find ourselves in humiliating situations. Others bark at you for not falling in line. You find yourself playing devil’s advocate on occasion.. to see what the reaction is, to test the waters. We question everything and think it’s wierd not to.
Some of us are naturally curious creatures. We have inquisitive minds. But unlike many in academia, we are not bound by the rules of the establishment. We can venture into territory where mainstream academics risk losing face.
I have grown tired of fact checking for the reasons that Ugo states. So many conflicting opinions leading to a state of confusion and paralysis. Often, mere intuition would have been the better guide.
For example, on dietary knowledge, there is no one size fits all approach. It’s a vast industry that has grown in a culture of over-abundance. Do you think that the poor and hungry are fussing over which ingredient will potentially lead to heart disease when they reach their seventies?
The chemical industry in the states is tied at the hip with the pharmaceutical industry. They have revolving door policies in govt which means their people are always pulling the strings in their favor. And that means academia too. The studies that get funded are the ones that will lead to profit in one way or another.
One arm creates highly refined processed foods that also require “added value” ingredients, vast amounts of packaging waste and ridiculous levels of advertising that directly causes sickness in the population. The other arm then makes vast amounts of profit patching the symptoms of the sick in a never ending vicious cycle.
In the middle are the people that unquestioningly believe the advertising on tv and on the food wrappers while accepting whatever their doctor says they should do about it – here, just take this pill twice a day.
I don’t blame the doctors though. They are born into a system that rewards this behaviour. They are just as much lab rats and pavlov’s dogs as everyone else. They dare not question the system that promised them so much after a lifetime of study. They dare not risk losing their licence to practice even when they suspect that all is not well.
When I doubt the validity of something, I jump in with both feet, get all giddy on the new info high, feel the need to tell others and so on. We peer through the fog, see some light, and head towards it. After bathing in the light for a while, the fog starts to close in again. Conflicting data begins to surface leading to doubt and confusion. At some point you wonder if you can ever really know the truth…
For me, nothing is ever set in stone. So when you suggest that Gail’s conclusions based on her analysis may not be accurate, I think it wise to at least entertain that idea. And while we’re at it, we should all strongly question positions such as Fast Eddy’s and those who adamantly defend BAU Lite.
Why? Because they could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time that people who promote an idea based on deep analysis were hopelessly wrong and end up with copious amounts of egg on their face.
What an objective viewer would do here is suggest possible scenarios each leading to a probable outcome with values ascribed accordingly.
That’s as much as anyone can realistically do. Beyond that, you’re just succombing to confirmation bias. You’re placing bets and hoping that you’ll win even if the outcome is a nasty one in this case.
“Will everything collapse this year, or are we just at the beginning of a brave new world where robotics and drugging of the microbiome lift humans far above the humble status we enjoy today?”
You see, now that I’ve followed this blog for some time, I know that the reaction to a statement like that will be a kneejerk one based on preconceived confirmation bias.
But I can draw up a scenario where a determined elite have planned many decades in advance for such an outcome. You need to put yourself in their shoes, see things from their perspective, even if everything you know is put into question.
We can safely assume that supranational agencies are running black projects in underground bases and at deep cover corps. just as the Nazis were doing in Germany. The tech and level of scientific knowledge that is hidden from the general public may be several decades ahead of anything we currently use.
Now lets entertain the ideas that COG advocates promote on this blog – again, I’m playing devil’s advocate here, I don’t and cannot know who is right or wrong.
Scratch the economy. Fuggedabout it. A command structure aquires what it needs to succeed through brute force, manipulation, and the need to survive. A ruthless elite commmands the excellence of the best scientists and engineers and rewards them accordingly and they comply because their lives depend on it i.e. survival of some form of intelligence.
Transhumanism has grown to infect all upper levels of the administration. The UN advocates for it as do all major universities. The high priests involved understand the pitfalls but will do everything in their power to make this dream come true for the “chosen ones.” They will redirect the worlds resources towards this goal alone.
In this scenario, something of humanity would continue. It wouldn’t be humanity as we know it. Technically speaking, homo sapiens sapiens would be dead. The much reduced, slimmed down remnant would not require much energy at all. It would be a vastly more efficient organism – remember that fragile butterflies cross the Atlantic… caterpillars gorge on leaves.
We are at the consumer stage in our development. Recognise it for what it is. The system appears to be in chaos, the cells will appear to be breaking down, until a transformed organism emerges from the apparent disorder.
Is it possible for the parties involved to secure the necessary resources from around the world. I would say no. This is where I agree with everything on this blog. There are simply too many parts involved, too many processes required in the chain for, lets say, a single ship to transport goods back and forth even without going into economies of scale issues etc.
But I still entertain the idea because I know that the elite do. The conclusion has to be either that they know something that we don’t or that they are suffering from a form of religious delusion – possibly similar to Easter Island inhabitants but on a global scale.
Just a note on the typical conversation surrounding AI or superintelligence or Artificial General Intelligence as opposed to narrow AI. There are several flavors being tested in that lab.
1) a “singleton” – autonomous AI that relies on its own basic drives with minimal input from humans. Some believe that this already exists and is directing the Elite’s decisions to some extent. Many in the field wish for this to be humanity’s progeny that lives on even after humans die out. A passing on of the baton, so to speak.
2) The full merger of man and machine, minimization of resource requirements, digitization of mankind, mind uploading etc. You have to understand that this is not an attempt to live forever. It’s a way to imbue our technology with our humaness and vice versa – a hybrid that accentuates the best of both worlds… or the worst.
3) Biological enhancement. Imagine not needing food. Imagine being resistant to radiation. I can assure you that all kinds of experimentation in this field is going on around the world “off the books” and beyond the reach of national and interantional law.
Or all of the above and everything in between as well as things that we can’t possibly know.
Remember, the above scenarios do not require more than a few million select human units to man the pumps. At least, that’s what it says in the “prospectus.”
Are any of the above scenarios feasible without continuation of BAU? I would say absolutely not. But can the elite extend BAU sufficiently to accomplish some of the above allowing for minimum basic requirements much in the same way that preppers make sure to have all they’ll need in place before SHTF? I would say yes… possibly.
Even if this scenario were possible, it’s of no real comfort to the rest of humanity as they would certainly perish. Would I feel all warm inside knowing that the continuation of what humanity has become somehow manages to live on in some other form with mostly the elite’s values intact? Not at all!
But ruthlessness wins the day, not some hollywood good guy high-fiving. The Allies won the war – they say… with sheer ruthless brutality – says the postscript. The spoils were divvied up and the victors wrote history.
If we’re lucky, some of us will be able to see the winning scenario unfold before our own eyes. Unless the lights go out first of course…
Rick, somebody has some interesting tech. I don´t understand the real world physics of twin towers coming down. So, somebody has something interesting. But for there to be a super advanced faction, that would require a closed world and language of their own. Language is a certain giveaway. What concepts, words and structure is used, tells about the science etc. used. So, if there are some superadvanced factions hiding, who cares? They are not going to give us a seat at their lifeboat, so that discussion doesn´t matter.
Eddy has a thing for the Elders, I just believe in a day to day struggle to keep the house of cards standing, of people not much different from you and me. What appears to be a structured plan of Elites or Elders, I think is just emergent intelligence of swarms, that we interpret as a plan or something http://www.slideshare.net/VenkateshVinayakarao/ai-swarm-intelligence
Google has everything it needs to make a mimic AI or a soft AI. They are not going for the mimic, everybody is going for neural networks and such.. hard AI stuff. They are going after the singularity, straight for the hard AI, therefore our civilization will collapse before we ever see one in reality. I would have liked to see a soft AI, because you can make anything and add a soft AI to it, and sell the product to people as an enhanced product. A vacuum, fridge, bike, car, toothbrush, everything could have been sold with a soft AI attached, and a shitload of money made. But, since they are going for the hard AI, this will never happen.
I don´t understand the ruthlessness argument. Since a million years ago the only way for our species to survive anything long term has been cooperation. I don´t get why ruthlessness is spoken of here? When I was a child our grandfathers had killed lots and lots of people in the finnish civil war or Russian or German soldiers. But I don´t find them ruthless, I felt them regretting things that just had to be done. When things are needed doing, you just do them, and afterwards try to forget as best as possible what you did, so that life can be kept on living. I don´t undrstand where ruthlessness would fit in to that picture?
” I don´t undrstand where ruthlessness would fit in to that picture?”
ruthless: without pity or compassion
It is hard to go kill enemy soldiers, while feeling compassionate for them. Probably get severe PTSD if you empathize too much with the people you are killing.
Matthew, yes, but you get killed very, very fast if not cooperating with the guys on your side.
Actually not killed, but digging latrines, the types of gung-ho soldiers people here are describing, were not even let on the battlefield. They were taking care of other “duties” (with the swedish volunteers), somewhere where they could not hurt themselves or anybody else. Hitler was a messenger in WWI..
Think of a hunting trip. If one of the guys is a regular “killing machine” in his own mind. I don´t think you would trust him to be with a gun at your side. Then when you actually kill your prey, you just pull the trigger, you just do it, no gung-ho ruthlessness involved, or compassion, or pity, you just pull the trigger.. You just do what needs doing. If that is the same thing as with what you call ruthlessness, then I agree, that is required. My main point is that people with lacking sense, or capability to make quick rational decisions will not make it, no matter how lacking in compassion and pity they try to be.
A group can co-operate to carry out ruthless behaviour towards another group.
For example, the British and American forces during WWII co-operated to carry out the fire bombing of Dresden and other German cities. Women and children burned alive with chemical warfare.
I would say that all involved from the leaders to the soldiers dropping the bombs acted in an utterly ruthless fashion with full knowledge of what their actions would bring.
Japanese prisoner of war camps were fairly ruthless too.
Organised, “swarm”, co-operative behaviour… call it what you want, there’s nothing friendly about it.
Ruthless does not mean irrational or compulsive or crazy although the results may look that way to observers…
And here’s an example of one human pack cooperating — against another human pack:
200 Swedes Storm Occupied Stockholm Train Station, Beat Migrant Children
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-30/200-swedes-storm-occupied-stockholm-train-station-beat-migrant-children
> see the video – this actually happened….
“Then when you actually kill your prey, you just pull the trigger, you just do it, no gung-ho ruthlessness involved, or compassion, or pity, you just pull the trigger..”
Perhaps there is a language barrier here. Killing an animal without pity or compassion is the definition of ruthless.
Sociopathy, or psychotic behaviour, or foolish bravado, those are other things.
I just realized I should clarify and qualify my previous response. The difference comes from the proper English versus Newspeak use of the word.
Proper English Ruthless: without compassion or pity
Newspeak used by politicians and mainstream media: synonym for sadistic
When they say Saddam Hussein was a ruthless dictator, they don’t mean he made rational choices without letting emotions cloud his judgement. They mean he was a sadist who (allegedly) enjoyed torturing people for his own entertainment.
Matthew, thanks for clearing the language barrier. Now I get how you guys use that word.
Precisely.
And then there’s always psychopaths… which have a nasty habit of rising to the top of the heap because of… you guessed it, their innate lack of empathy, their ability to act ruthlessly when required, but also their learned ability to put on a facade, to appear “normal” to others.
These types, in times of crisis, are able to push others to carry out atrocities for whatever reason. The whole group takes on the mantle of the psychopath.
Isn’t war the ultimate insanity?
Isn’t war one the options on the table on the global chessboard?
“Isn’t war the ultimate insanity?”
Absolutely. The only ones who benefit are the arms makers and dealers. Look at Syria and the eastern Ukraine. Massive destruction of capital. That’s fossil fuel investment that is never coming back. Millions if not billions of barrels of oil equivalent just turned into rubble.
Actually it is quite easy — that is what racism is for.
Call them gooks, krauts, baby killers, rag heads, refugee rapists…. demonize them.
And you’ll have thousands rallying behind you ready to KILL KILL KILL!!!!
You’re splitting hairs methinks.
The groups of people you speak of acted ruthlessly when pushed to limits – whatever it takes to stay alive or defeat “the others” that present a threat to your way of life.
Ruthless dictators have existed in the past. They will exist in the times to come.
By ruthless I mean that they will do whatever it takes to maintain their position of power once attained.
Of course all of these processes require co-operation by all the parties involved but the group that is prepared to act ruthlessly when the time comes will survive. The others will perish.
On AI, we’ve had narrow AI applications for 50 years – an plane’s autopilot is narrow AI as are high frequency trading algos.
AGI or artificial general intelligence also known as strong intelligence is being researched by relatively few people around the world. Up to now, there has been way more reward in developing narrow AI.
Recently though, the MIC has shown interest in more general approaches. Research has probably been going on behind the scenes for some time. The most prominent AGI researchers make allusions to this all the time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence
I’m in the fast collapse camp i.e. once a tipping point is reached collapse will accelerate at “free fall” speed. I actually don’t think any of these plans will see the light of day because they require the foundations of everything that has come before to remain intact and yet that is what we see crumbling the most right now.
It’s hard to see how even secretive groups could maintain the supply chain required for any of these activities on a much smaller scale. We’re not talking about saving the whole human race here but still, microchips, robots etc require mined materials, refineries, big ships… oil…
If we had advanced nanotech i.e. 3d printing of anything at the nano scale from basic raw material then we would have a chance – at least two decades away according to researchers.
I have ignored the AI discussions because as you say — we are collapsing now — so the AI discussions are moot.
We won’t even be able to buy a toothbrush post BAU — and some think robots will exist….
Ever since you brought up the toothbrush thing I can’t help myself pausing in a moment of reverence – or possibly a more sinister emotion – everytime I see my own little collection.
In a way, it’s become a symbol of how easy we’ve had things. I may start wearing one around my neck. Post BAU people may see it as something worth worshipping…
I have a box filled with a couple of hundred of them… along with dozens of tooth floss packs and many tubes of toothpaste….
Tip of the Day for Doomsday Preppers: toothbrushes are not expensive so you might stock up on them to use for barter purposes…. they will be highly sought after by people who live in Delusistan who in their dreamworld were unable to envision that they would not be able to purchase such things post BAU …… just as they cannot envision a filling falling out and resulting in the agony of a rotten tooth being pulled out with a pair of plyers….
On the other hand…. why bother… if there is nothing to eat then there is no need to worry about tooth decay….. (and there will be nothing to eat….)
Rick Grimes
If toothbrushes disappear, then so will sugar (which requires a refinery). No sugar means no tooth decay.
Ancient skeletons reveal ‘teeth to die for’.
This example illustrates that causation flows in both directions. Collapse of BAU makes some things worse, but some things better.
Don Stewart
Farming causes tooth decay. If we farm post BAU rather than return to hunting and gathering … we will need tooth brushes.
Oral Mystery: Are Agriculture and Rats Responsible for Tooth Decay?
Tooth decay is a relatively modern problem. The bacteria feasting on your teeth might have originated in the mouth of a rodent, and found their way to our teeth, thanks to agriculture
You could be forgiven for thinking that tooth decay is an inevitable fact of life; even ancient Egyptians practiced dentistry.
But the study of human teeth suggests that before our ancestors started cultivating plants for food, cavities were uncommon.
Tooth decay, it seems, spread once we changed to an agricultural lifestyle.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oral-mystery-are-agriculture-and-rates-responsible-for-tooth-decay/
Toby Hemenway, if I remember correctly, thinks that the domestication of grains was the problem. That puts him into a Paleo situation: animal products and vegetables. Toby thinks grains increased female fecundity.
Don Stewart
Isn’t it interesting how we have this strong bias that makes us believe this tranquil scene is how we need to live to be sustainable:
http://cache2.asset-cache.net/gc/556464951-pastoral-scenes-15th-century-gettyimages.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=PYBVq0jPHTHUVFwJLhESgi8508xeTkjC5DSh4zEkmn6giBHwk%2FOgjwEorfTsQB5E
One can be forgiven the mistake when one contrasts what with this:
http://imgfave-herokuapp-com.global.ssl.fastly.net/image_cache/1334957813837155.jpg
But then a hunter gatherer would take a look at the farm picture and the steel tools and the wagons and the barn and all the other gear — and see that in the same light as you see the concrete jungle….
Isn’t it funny how our biases allow us to look back at the past with romantic notions of how things were so much better — how they cause us to ask ‘where did we go wrong – how did we end up where we are now — if only we could have stayed the course and lived on organic farms’
When in reality the past was absolutely no more sustainable than the present — the past was simply another step – that started with the harnessing of fire — on the way to oblivion.
I can imagine when BAU collapses if anyone is still around – because they too will not understand what I am explaining here — that Millenials will be pining for ‘the good ol days’ when there was facebook, and teevee, and malls, and food, and you could do just about anything by flipping a switch…
I am sure there will be some elders in the community who will endlessly drone on about how we need to return to the 1990’s…. how it it still possible….
And no doubt because people will want to live The Good Life….. they will make every effort to restart the cycle again — they’ll cut down forests…. they’ll smelt metals … they’ll farm…. they’ll try in vain to revive Facebook….
But they will fail because the low hanging fruit is all gone….
What they will do in this ‘Quest for Facebook and Farming’ is extinct the species.
Marshall Sahlins’ Original Leisure Society may be in our future, but we have to survive in order to get there. Survival now requires a mixture of farming with microbes, health care with microbes, and communal defense.
Our distant ancestors did many of these things, but they did not have the science to understand. Many of them they did out of necessity…others by choice–who want’s to plow when one can simply hunt?
If we get back to hunting by choice, there will be very many fewer humans in the world. The Japanese movie Fires on the Plain gives us a hint about the struggle that hunting and gathering would be today…Japanese soldiers stranded in the Phillipines after the collapse of the Imperial Army.
Microbes multiply very rapidly, given the right conditions. I think that, in terms of food, soil compaction is the biggest issue, because anaerobic conditions favor microbes which are not our friend. As someone who has spent the last two days dealing with soil compaction, I can assure you it isn’t fun.
Don Stewart
” I think that, in terms of food, soil compaction is the biggest issue, because anaerobic conditions favor microbes which are not our friend.”
I thought the problem with tilling is that the aerobic bacteria consume all the organic material in the soil?
Matthew Krajcik
A problem with plowing is that the plow pushes down on the soil, and in a few years you get what we around here call a ‘plow pan’. This is a densely compacted layer of clay, which is impenetrable to roots and water. Since there is no way for air to get under the plow pan, things go anaerobic.
The top few inches do experience the explosion of bacteria, because the process of plowing puts lots of oxygen in those few inches.
Plants natural tendency is to put down very deep roots. For example, there are roots from surface plants growing through the roofs of caves a couple of hundred feet below the surface. Obviously, an important measure of the land available to us is the surface area times the depth of the usable soil. I have seen compaction at the 3 inch level, particularly in lawns. That means that the grass can’t put down decent roots, and so everyone resorts to using lots of irrigation. This is extraordinarily wasteful.
So we have this unstable situation. Deeper down we have anaerobic conditions which are toxic to plants, and on top we have very low organic matter. The low organic matter means that the soil doesn’t hold much water, so the soil food web which generates the nutrients that the plants need is not very active. So we think we have to pile on the fertilizers. If we think of ‘radical horticulture’ as ‘teaming with microbes’, we would break up the compaction and build up the organic matter which enables a healthy soil food web which feeds the plants. (Also takes carbon out of the air and puts it into the soil).
Don Stewart
“This is a densely compacted layer of clay, which is impenetrable to roots and water. ”
The area I am in, I’m fairly sure it was a flood plain or even river bottom at some point in the distant past. The soil is stratified, and a few feet down there is a natural clay layer several inches thick that is densely packed. Under that is several feet of gravel. There are concerns if you dig too deep, salt water contamination can occur from the ocean.
We’re the lucky ones – a lot of the properties around here, whoever cleared them, removed everything down to the gravel layer. We have nice, rich soil for the first couple feet.
Matthew Krajcik
ALL solutions are local.
Don Stewart
‘If we get back to hunting by choice, there will be very many fewer humans in the world’
Fewer humans…. exactly what is needed.
But I don’t think we will go back to hunting and gathering …. we have tasted the good life …. and we will pursue the good life post BAU…. no matter what the costs…
I could care less if humans are extincted however for those who do …. the best case scenario has to be that the only survivors are those few communities that are currently living as hunter gatherers….
I’ve mentioned a trek to deepest darkest Papua a few years ago — the people we encountered would not miss BAU for a second — they didn’t even have a plastic bottle…..
Before we romanticize the hunter gatherer I would note that the people were extremely small – we saw signs of malnutrition (they did do a little farming growing sweet potatoes in terrible hillside soil)
And I will never forget the most remote outpost we visited — they seldom see any outsiders —- normally children are laughing and curious when people come to remote villages — not here — they just watched us trudge into the village without a word… just staring at us….
They were living in straw huts — it was quite chilly at night so they had fires inside the huts which were choked with smoke — it was pouring rain and we had to set our tent up in a muddy field because there was no proper dry high ground — there were animal faeces mixed in with the mud outside our tent….
It was without exaggeration a shocker of a place – the worst I have ever been to.
So one can imagine why the good life – if it was offered — would appeal to most hunter gatherers….
And one can imagine why nobody on FW is preparing to enter the forests and live off the land post BAU….. not a single one of us would survive a week ….
Fast Eddy
That’s why I said ‘the gate is through teaming with microbes for food and health’. It’s one thing to go from Manhattan to the jungle, and a different thing to go from a subsistence farm using few inputs through a slow, steady loss of agricultural tool to the jungle.
Don Stewart
At least George Miller, the director of the 4 Mad Max films, got it right already in the 1970s. Mad Max is living like a hunter-gatherer.
“George and I wrote the script based on the thesis that people would do almost anything to keep vehicles moving and the assumption that nations would not consider the huge costs of providing infrastructure for alternative energy until it was too late”
http://madmax.wikia.com/wiki/Mad_Max
We can see that on FW …
There are those who have indicated they will try to keep their vehicles operational even making their own ethanol (they refuse explain how they will make lubricants for the transmission etc.. when asked) ….
There are the farmers who insist on maintaining and making tools — who suggest blacksmith skills are crucial to the future…
I don’t see humans turning on BAU — we’ll continue to beat the drum of progress post collapse — but progress requires energy — and the only energy available will be trees…
One of the problems with the masses not recognizing that we are collapsing because the low hanging energy has been used up … is that there will be a belief that we can step back onto the treadmill and start extracting oil post BAU ….. there will be no acceptance that we will never again pump oil out of the ground….
There will be no acceptance that the technology god is dead — and we’ll do absolutely anything to revive him….
Say goodbye to the trees…. Haiti here we come.
FE,
>>>they’ll cut down forests…. they’ll smelt metals … they’ll farm…. they’ll try in vain to revive Facebook….
>>>What they will do in this ‘Quest for Facebook and Farming’ is extinct the species.
LOL! Facebook deprivation alone is enough to make people curl up in a ball and beg for mercy.
Eddy,
“they refuse explain how they will make lubricants for the transmission etc.. when asked”
Just ask, I´ll tell you what I know about making makeshift solutions https://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/ncnu02/v5-029.html
There is a car in Finland in which every single material, including the fuel, tyres, motor oil, lubricants, is woodpulp based. Easy.. nope, but it is not impossible.
The canola-based motor oil project was initiated in 1996 in response to a need for a motor oil compatible with, and nontoxic to, fragile ecosystems. The oils are composed primarily of high oleic canola as the base oil. This oil is combined with sources of hydroxy fatty acids and wax esters or estilides. Additional modifications include the inclusion of bio-based pour-point depressants and supplemental antioxidants. The components and formulations are available in US Patent No. 5,888,947 (1999).
It’s not quite as if you just pour canola oil into the engine …. there are other ingredients and no doubt some sort of high-tech processing involved.
What about transmission and brake fluids?
Can I see further information on the car in Finland so that I can evaluate the feasibility of that post BAU?
In any event my point is made — there will be McGyvers who dream about BAU and who will do everything possible to try to rekindle the flame.
If anyone is around post BAU from FW — and you see someone trying to do this — I suggest you insert a cartridge into your shotgun — and put them down immediately — in the interest of saving the forests.
Eddy, yup, high tech involved.
Your point well taken.
My perspective with makeshift solutions is mostly confined to the “problem” of feeding 200 or so families. Not global solutions of any kind. Too late for that. If some Macgyvering needs to be done to accomplish the goal I have, then its Macgyvering that I´m prepaired to do. Even though I hear your shotgun just going “click”.
The Biofore Concept Car http://www.upm.com/upmcc-en/Pages/default.aspx
Nice guys. Been to their labs and facilities a couple of times.
Oh, I just gotta mention. When visiting the French giant Plastic Omnium in their facilities, checking out what they make out of ethanol from Brazil. It was kinda scary hearing a huge giant of a firm saying, that they prepaire for all eventualities, lack of raw material (oil).
“Eddy has a thing for the Elders, I just believe in a day to day struggle to keep the house of cards standing, of people not much different from you and me. What appears to be a structured plan of Elites or Elders, I think is just emergent intelligence of swarms, that we interpret as a plan or something http://www.slideshare.net/VenkateshVinayakarao/ai-swarm-intelligence”
This is a good description. Maybe super organism is an even better concept, since a swarm is a particular state. A superorganism can achieve many other things than forming a swarm. Think of a bee hive or an ant nest. The emergent intelligence and functions of a society of bees can be amazing. The individuals are not very intelligent. Ants are even more advanced. But I like bees better since I’m a beekeeper.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superorganism
I am also sceptical about the “Elders” in the Fast Eddy sense of the concept. Though the human swarm (super organism) do have some nodes. Some people are more important. With some fantasy they can be interpreted to be the conspiring “Elders”.
The human swarm seems to be vastly less well trained than an ant nest or a bee hive.These species have practiced for millions of years of evolution. Our modern system has been around to shortly for evolution to have any impact and the system has never been in any steady state. An interesting thing with bees is that the full sisters to the queen are more related to her than the offspring of the queen is related to the queen. This is believed to be one of the reasons to why the sisters started to help the queen rather than getting their own offspring.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplodiploidy
“One arm creates highly refined processed foods that also require “added value” ingredients, vast amounts of packaging waste and ridiculous levels of advertising that directly causes sickness in the population. The other arm then makes vast amounts of profit patching the symptoms of the sick in a never ending vicious cycle.”
– I’m making things out of the packaging, although not fast enough to keep up. Room for a small-business idea perhaps.
– Resource depletion, economic meltdown, environmental degradation all say this kind of packaging can’t persist.
– Intuition is perhaps the best guide for eating in an over complicated world. Listening to your body. But so is custom and tradition a good guide. Following practices common prior to the post WWII hyper consumption era will help. (This is why I advocate for not destroying anything from the past.). Seemingly wise and benign council like Michael Pollan’s is also helpful in the mix. (Keep away from those middle aisles with their foodlike substances and stay with the what’s around the edge.) Nice quote, INTERGURU
– Here, and in general, I find Van Kent’s POV simpatico. Don’t pay too much attention to the brave new world people. They are perhaps mad, and don’t somehow see the limits they are up against. But they are powerful meanwhile, and will do what they’ll do. We work around them and incorporate what we can’t avoid to the best of our ability.
– IMO, community planning is the proper way to proceed. Ubiquitous rainwater roof catchment, ubiquitous roof solar panels. Follow Gail’s advice to connect directly to most critical appliances–like fridges? Maybe even just one panel can do some good. Ubiquitous gray water outlet to yard. Ubiquitous food production, however minimal.
– I have, to my satisfaction, figured out a model for housing (during BAU) that is virtually free, and can provide very basic shelter. So housing (for now) isn’t the ‘problem.’
– Food for all isn’t figured out. This needs urgent attention.
There probably is a space below to say more, so I’ll end this and scroll down some more.
Well I did scroll down, and saw nothing applicable. So let me stick this here:
1) Life will not be worth living unless there is some kind of workable ‘civilization’ going to keep most people alive.
2) Safeguarding the eternal safety of nuclear facilities must be done either through extraordinary human management and/or some as-now-unknown technology. The best thing now is to manage and monitor the heck out of these facilities, giving them the lion’s sharer of the fossil fuels, military resources, etc., needed for the job.
3) The profit system is not the only (or necessarily the best) harbinger of a livable future. But the challenge is to make it work optimally while it exists. (Like keeping the Internet open might be good for the world as well as for business, etc.)
4) Utilities might be able to develop a workable alternative to fossil fuels.
– Maybe some sort of “bundle of rights” legal trading can help, so they make money per unit of energy (including conservation they provide).
– Say, manufacturing small wood stoves that use wood pellets, etc., and need no venting. Geothermal, cogeneration, windmills where feasible.Inventing cheap-to-install roof solar (roping in solar businesses, perhaps, working as an arm of government too, perhaps) .and finding a formula for charging customers appropriately, in line with what they pay now, and what they can afford.
5) There are ways to insulate all buildings that Van Kent and I have discussed. It can be done during early stage of post BAU, but my main point is to securer a form of BAU indefinitely, without which, there is no satisfactory program to consider.that I can see.
But let’s not forget that Fukushima may already have been an extinction event…
That’s quite possibly the best comment I’ve yet seen on FW.
I’m curious to know how you found FW….
I’m touched! How I found FW is a little vague in memory. Through NBL. For one thing, RE at the Doomstead Diner would sometimes host Gail. RE did a lot to organize the Nature Bats Last (NBL) web site. Among multitudes of posts on NBL, Gail’s work repeatedly came up. After reading at FW for a little while, I was convinced of Gail’s good sense and sincerity. The entire discussion dealt with a part of reality–among the primary–that one can’t dismiss and still make sense. You (among other posters) have helped a lot as well. 🙂
Actually that was meant for Mr Grimes…. at least that was the commentator I was trying to reply to…. it was the long essay reply….
I’m sure it isn’t, but thanks anyway. Didn’t mean to write an essay. Got carried away!
How did I find FW?
Can’t remember the exact path. All a bit of a blur. But I’ll never forget the specific encounter that got the ball rolling. It was like getting a cattle prod to the back of my head. I was commenting on an Atlantic article about “the end of work” and how automation technology was going to rule the world and how we’d adapt and yadda yadda yadda… y’know, the usual claptrap.
Being a good little techno-utopian acholite, I was busy defending the “everything is awesome” argument when this insufferable blowhard engineer / physicist type kept telling me that my dreams of “robot futures”… would NEVER happen!
Well, I wasn’t going to take that kind of abuse lying down so we continued back and forth until I realised I was out of my depth. This guy was talking about fundamental physical constraints that I had never heard anyone in the robotics and AI community ever mention in nearly a decade of tracking this field.
When I finally understood what he was going on about, I wanted to go back and thank him for having opened my eyes… but the comments were already closed. He was right. I know that now.
I had previously come across Limits to Growth – Club of Rome material but didn’t take it very seriously. A techno-optimist has no time for such things!
One thing I couldn’t understand was why this engineer type was installing renewable energy systems all over Europe if he truly believed that everything was grinding to a halt and technology would soon be obsolete. To me, that didn’t make sense…
So, I started looking into it and ended up on Gail’s blog. Been here ever since.
It took a while to dissolve what was left of my cognitive dissonance. I started to understand Zero Hedge articles that hadn’t made sense before. I read as much about energy as I could without puking.
Finally, it sank in. There’s no way out of this. No magic solution. No fancy techno-future.
Ironically, just before all of this, I was in the process of starting a new “career” writing science fiction novels. Boy, was that ever put on hold!
I’ll still try to get a get a few titles out in the time that we have left – BAU and Amazon required, you see. Nothing like a deadline to get the creative juices flowing!
Always look forward to your posts FE.
How did you end up in this crazy neck of the woods?
There are few people who beat Cognitive Dissonance in a fight…. or even try…. quite impressive.
The journey …..
Things did not feel right in the years leading up to 2008 … but I could not put my finger on the problem….
Fortunately I avoided the meltdown this showed up in my mail box a few months prior to Lehman (I exited whatever positions I could — went heavily to gold — operating on the assumption that shorting was futile because this was too big to bail — that was a mistake….)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJH2CcpXztE
I then spent a few years in ‘David Stockman mode’ believing that the central banks had gone insane…. were going to blow up the planet…
Then – like a diamond bullet — it hit me — the men in control were not stupid nor venal (how stupid was I to think a man like Bernanke did not know exactly what he was doing…. and why)…
The chase was on — what did they fear so much that forced them to stick a nuclear bomb into the global economy knowing that at some point it would explode.
Why do this? It had to be something monumental….
The shale revolution provided a clue — it was clearly a load of bullshit …. but it hinted that there were issues with oil supplies…
I then read End of Growth and The Long Emergency and everything I could find on the web — and the next diamond bullet struck — I remember being in a hotel room in Edinburgh reading an article in the Financial Times — and I realized that expensive oil was the disease…
I recall not being able to sleep that night until very late — it was like receiving a death sentence — and trying to figure out a way to escape — at some point that night I became resigned to the fact that there was no way out…
I had moved to Bali in 2008 after many years in Hong Kong expecting to sit out the crash and the hoped for reset — spent 7 years in Bali and set up a considerable farming operation in a remote mountain location ….
Basically been ticking boxes on the bucket list since 2008 taking as many overseas trips as possible since then — accelerating things when I realized the death sentence was pretty much a certainty (and that if I did make it through that travel post BAU was not going to happen)
Finally — after realizing that there were too many people in Bali — none of them would be able to grow anything post collapse because they all farm with urea — and reckoning the white guy in the village with the farm would be a big target…. (we were also tired of the heat and humidity of Bali…)
We shifted to the north part of the south island of New Zealand just under a year ago and have set up a small farming operation here. In fact the guy I hired to pull this together as quickly as possible left at noon yesterday as we have completed the project…. we are as ready as ready can be – except for the dead solar pump….
Alas I recognize the futility of all this — but it keeps my wife sane — and working on the land keeps me in good condition.
Now I am just watching things unfold… commenting on FW …. continuing to work with our Hong Kong and China offices remotely — and waiting for the funeral to start….
I am curious as to what measures you are taking to get ready for post BAU.
Thanks for sharing your journey with us, FE. It would be interesting to know everyone else’s too, but maybe that’s too much show and tell for some…
What measures am I taking? I was going to invest in a fishing rod. No, seriously. Good sea fishing around here and the restrictions will no doubt be lifted post BAU.
Other than that, I live in a fairly robust community in the north west of spain that only modernised a few decades ago. Subsistence farming, fishing, forestry, building stone houses is very much in our blood. Even so, I honestly don’t know how long a community like this could survive under post BAU conditions. I suspect that it won’t make much difference.
To give you some idea why, every house in this region until recently had at least two cows, pigs, chickens, some had ducks, rabbits, goats, sheep, plenty of durable tools for all kinds of farm work, plenty of land with forest and some arable land for crops, orchards brimming with fruit, grapes, chestnuts, fishing all along the coast.
A few years ago, the last traditional blacksmith had a stroke. An end to an era. Now, all the houses have been remodelled, barns refitted for tourists, TVs in every room, mercedes, bmws, audis everywhere. Things have changed…
And yet, many families still group together to plant potatoes, corn, pumpkins, beans, greens… anything that’ll grow. Like I said, it’s in their blood. But there are plenty of tractors now. We’ll see about that post BAU… but no, doing everything by hand does not scare these people, even the young’uns.
I think these communities will do whatever it takes to grow food and fish for as long as they can. And they will share. It’s what they always did in the past to survive. Everyone will have a job to do including security, if need be.
We even have fully restored water mills for milling grains, and traditional granite grain stores that keep the rats out!
What I’m thinking is that it’s very hard to go backwards. Basic knowledge and skills that were passed down from generation to generation are more valuable than anything found in books. Stuff that worked in the real world to keep people alive. Not easy to regain that. You need “elders” that lived through it to guide you.
The same applies to your hunter-gatherer scenarios. Too much to know. Too much to learn in a short space of time. That kind of survival knowledge takes generations of trial and error to accumulate. Very hard for anyone to go down that road from where we are now unless you’re already living that way.
So yeah, I think we’ll be ok for a while. It’s the millions of smartphone wielding trendies in the cities that I’m more concerned about. The spillover from the cities could be our biggest threat…
‘What I’m thinking is that it’s very hard to go backwards’
We make assumptions that it won’t be too difficult — but it was difficult living even for people raised that way …. and as you point out – we don’t have the skills .. nobody handed them down to us…. in many respects we will be like a 7 year old trying to work out to survive in a very harsh situation….
I forgot to mention a couple of things…. when I realized oil was the problem I bought land in a very remote part of British Columbia — it is cut off on one side by the Rockies and the other by the Columbia River…. the thinking was that there would still be hydro power available no matter what…. with very few people there would always be enough food available….
At the time I was trying to work out what would happen if there was no growth — that was when I came across the term steady state economy which lead me to FW…. ‘such an economy can exist but it would be very primitive’ … I also recognized the folly of BAU lite …. hydro cannot exist without BAU….
My wife was not keen on the long cold winters so we discarded that idea — and were fortunately able to unload that property before the economy started to tank in Canada.
FE, we have a hydro station a few kilometres away and wind turbines all along the coast – all useless post BAU.
We also have natural spring water that filters through the granite rock mountains into several large tanks. We get more rainfall here than the UK so they’re always topped up.
Temps are mild here. We’re by the sea and the clouds keep us warm. I hardly ever have to use a heater, just extra clothes. A dehumidifier is handy though. It’s very damp otherwise.
I flirted with the steady state economy “belief system” for some time, mostly as a techno-utopian construct. I figured unless you radically change human nature, it’s not feasible on any large scale. The minute you ration things, try to contain population, control human behaviour, everything stagnates and life becomes unbearable.
And nature finds a way to break the mold. Because that’s what nature does. It’s baked in at a fundamental level. Nothing escapes it. Nothing at all. We’re all bound by those rules however much some of our kind think they break them.
Rick,
“Ironically, just before all of this, I was in the process of starting a new “career” writing science fiction novels. Boy, was that ever put on hold!!”
What sort of stuff are you writing now? There are deadlines, so something is underway?
Two years ago I knew this superb surfer girl down under. She was very interested in climate change issues and wanted to try and write something about it. I tried to help her get the wider picture of interconnected problems and.. well she´s still clinically depressed her brother tells me. I suspect its wee bit dangerous to jump straight in to the deep end of the pool, without first coming to grips with these issues. Writing in particular, being alone and doing the work all by yourself, might get a bit overwhelming.
So, trying to redeem myself from past mistakes, is there something we can help with in your science fiction novel (to keep it light and entertaining)?
Ha ha! Van Kent, I’m doing my best not to spread my “disease” to others, but it’s really hard not to put a downer on most conversations. It still happens occasionally, but I quickly slap myself and promise not to do it again.
I had about three or four series totalling twenty books planned. All to be self-published via Amazon and other outlets. Covers and editing outsourced to pros. A couple of them are close to finished, but I haven’t done much since finding this site…
By deadline I meant the end of BAU! The way I see it time is running out, not just for writers, but for all modern activities that rely on advanced technology.
What I don’t know and what no one here wants to predict with any kind of precision is the way things are going to unravel i.e. will certain services remain longer than others, and when exactly will they finally cease operating?
At this point, I see all of this as an entertaining thought experiment. No more, no less. Because I don’t think it really matters. Publishing a book or two now, would be merely to satisfy a personal goal and to keep busy until the lights go out.
But I am wondering if my time would be better spent doing something else. What would you do in this situation considering that we don’t have accurate ETA on end of BAU?
Chucky Prince Citi “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
I will be surprised if we make it to the end of this year and the only way I see us not collapsing in 2016 is if the central banks are able to duplicate the miracle of QE with some other gimmick.
The layoffs are coming fast and furious particularly in the commodity space — BP just report horrific numbers — more well-paid people will be jettisoned — more layoffs further increase deflationary pressures meaning commodity prices are more likely to drop than rise.
Every commodity producer on the planet is under huge pressure with prices where they are now – never mind if they continue to drop.
They cannot be bailed out one by one – that will be like sticking fingers in the dyke…. what is needed is another massive macro policy like QE which floats all boats in one go…
We see where that got us in China though — empty cities — massive excess capacity — toxic side-effects which include dumping this excess capacity on global markets creating this deflationary nightmare….
I struggle to accept that we can do more of the same and keep the hamster running….
Bernanke said he feared deflation more than anything — I don’t think he meant deflation at the retail level so much rather he meant it at the producer level.
His worst nightmares have been realized — we are knee-deep in deflation — the numbers are as a bad as they were in 2008….
If the think-tanks have any bright ideas we need to see them put into play … and soon…..
As we get more bad numbers like the BP result — this is going to destroy CONfidence — and all oars will be pulled in which will exacerbate and already dire situation.
Rick, ETA SHTF beginning of Post-BAU, well, Eddy thinks its grid out this year. I have my doubts it will escalate that fast, there are some fail-safes still in place, but my bet is still grid out 2018. Collapse all year 2016. Major moves from the big players in 2017. And end of BAU and grid out 2018, early 2019 the latest.
It doesn´t really matter if its this year or five years from now (ten years, nope, no way any kind of wizardry will extend BAU that long). Couple of billion people are going to find starving uncomfortable enough, regardless.
What to do? I guess my way of coping is learning a philosophy that would translate to something like: “Relax, everything´s out of control”. Other than that, can´t really say, no winning strategy, so, surprising things might prove invaluable. The Uberlord prepper organic farmer with a ton of food in the basement might be invaded on day 1 in Post-BAU..
You´re a writer, if somebody is good at something, maybe its worth doing just because they are good at doing it? Even better if that thing happens to be enjoying..
Dear FE and VK – aka the Doctors of Doom! – just kidding 😉
I appreciate your sincerity and the calm delivery of your prognosis. It was to be expected given the patient’s severe delusional disorder. I understand that copious amounts of Abilify will help soften the blow. Will increase the dose gradually until supplies run out. Then more severe palliative measures may be required. I’m sure we’ll figure something out.
Yours eternally,
End of Days Care Home
FE, I saw that about BP. Totally agree that as soon as some major dominoes fall, the world panics and the implosion accelerates. I don’t think there’s much more CBs can do. Whatever they try will have zero or negative effect.
VK, I like your thinking (because it buys more time). It makes sense that some countries will go down first (Venezuela) followed by all the others in step fashion. So, it depends very much on where you live how quickly things move. Large scale conflict could form part of the final act. Nothing like a firework display to close the show.
Other than that, since we live in a globalised economy, I would expect international systems – transportation, transactions, communications – to be impacted almost simultaneously as they are all deeply intertwined. It’ll be as if someone set off an EMP worldwide only the lightbulbs keep flickering a while longer until they finally pop…
I obtained my Master in Doom from the leading global institution of doom — FW 🙂
Rick all you say could make for truth but you like most appear to block out the obvious and overriding reality of global warming. I don’t think you are a cornucopian by any means but that is what they do. They ignore the issues that pull their nest down. For some it’s the economy for others it’s resource depletion but the issue that kills us all, is global warming.
I’m sure that if all…….humans had to contend with, was resource depletion or catastrophic economic collapse there would be a decline and a recovery and reset to something else, with obviously much fewer people and an exponentially lower living standard for the vast majority. Mainly because us humans are a resourceful lot, our brains and engineering skills enabled us to cover every single inhabitable niche on the planet. As I said though, we are extremely unlikely to be able to test that theory, because of the many deleterious affects of global warming induced climate change, which is already on us. Still I enjoyed reading your post.
I am a HUGE fan of global warming…
When I see record breaking temperatures I feel like this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPXVGQnJm0w
I can hear the howls of displeasure all the way down here in NZ….
But think about it…
We grow – or we collapse…
GDP is nearly 1:1 correlated with fossil fuel burning….
We must burn more fossil fuels every single year vs the last year — or we collapse….
Thus if record temperatures are a result of fossil fuel burning then that is known as winning — or success… it means we are still growing — that we get to live large a little longer….
Now of course if someone could explain to me that we can continue to grow while at the same time reducing our fossil fuel consumption ….
I would be very interested in that …
Until then — burn baby burn ….
https://mosaic-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/pollution%20from%20smokestacks.jpg
Reducing, stopping, even going negative on emissions matters little, we are right now experiencing affects of seeds sown half a century ago. Mammals days are numbered. Reptiles may struggle on, they have in the past. What is coming down the pike has no precedent though, so speculation abounds. Like you say, we may as well party on, it won’t change much either way.
“but the issue that kills us all, is global warming.”
Even amongst people who are all about the AGW, catastrophic climate change, the clathrate gun, etc are very niche. Lots of scientists dispute this claim of gigatonnes of methane waiting to cook the planet.
If there is no sudden rapid release, the climate will probably warm a couple degrees for a few decades once the aerosols clear, then it will stabilize or cool off a bit as farms stop being tilled and trees start to grow, oil and coal stop being consumed, etc.
Maybe you haven’t got a clue. “Warm a couple of degrees”…..that was baked in decades ago, without considering positive feedbacks. It was thinking like that back then, that has gotten us killed. Just like economists, real estate agents, finance brokers, stock brokers or the cigarette lobby, there will always be some clown to tell us everything will be okay and there are no end of denialist’s saying the same about global warming. I bet you read and/or listen to what you want to hear……….three wise monkeys syndrome, or more likely head in the sand.
“Maybe you haven’t got a clue.”
Ok, besides Guy MacPherson, who else is supporting this view? I sure don’t see anything from the IPCC saying that there is going to be 10 degrees of warming and then the atmosphere boils off. feel free to provide links to anything peer-reviewed regarding this. Or at least articles that reference actual peer-reviewed science.
Who said “ten degrees warming and the atmosphere boils off”? Maybe two degrees will be enough, already 2015 was the warmest year on record and there has been no slowing of emissions. We were warned years ago that tropical virus’s will spread, there is a rush now to get ice samples from glaciers, they are toast.
Ocean acidification and warming, lakes drying, rivers not reaching the sea, sea levels rising, ice caps melting, unseasonal and devastating forrest fires, unprecedented El Niño, clathrates melting, with emissions from the Arctic Ocean, huge methane eruptions from the land in Siberia, permafrost melting and emitting methane…….want me to go on….this is happening now and is unstoppable. You can google the shit out of that and tell me what is not true. You would have to be a damn moron not to be able to put two and two together.
Yup. Ya got me. It’s my blind spot. Deliberately so.
But it was just a comment. I wasn’t trying to cover every angle.
FE and Mathew did a good job of reading my mind. 😉
I will add that whatever happens post BAU will be a “bonus level” for the humans involved. If we stop thinking in abstract terms for a while, then all that really matters to us as individuals is that we survive as long as possible… with as little suffering as possible.
When that equation starts to tip the wrong way, there is no stampede for the exit doors, no panic in the aisles – just quiet acknowledgement that the time has come. Acceptance, peace, and gratitude are all that’s required.
If you truly believe that climate change in the coming decades will be so severe that all mammalian life on the planet is at risk AND that we’ve built up sufficient “inertia” in the system that will continue its destructive path no matter what we throw at it, then what is it exactly that you want us to do about it?
Why do we even need to continue to refer to it or be constantly reminded to factor it into our scenario planning if it is unavoidable?
Even if we suffer a catastrophic reduction in human population post BAU and human activity ceases to be a contributing factor to the ever changing global climate, the global climate will continue to change accordingly, even after any human caused inertia effects are fully depleted.
If there are any humans left on the planet by that stage, then I wish them good luck and happy hunter-gathering until the last one drops. May the next species up to bat have as good an innings as we did!
When I hear the AGW crowd get all roudy, I sense mass indoctrination. There’s a lot of frothing at the mouth and institutionalised bullying at the mere wiff of a “denier”. You’ve been entrained to react in a certain way. And quite honestly… it shows.
Again, if the science is in, concensus has been reached, taxation of every carbon emission decided, then why do you guys feel so threatened by a tiny minority who dare to call your bluff?
Me, I’ll be happy if I make it to the post BAU wasteland. Like I said – bonus level.
I think a lot of humans act like this place was put here for them, for their own pleasure – a theme park of sorts. Now things are getting a little wild and they get all upset, complain to the management, demand that things stay the same.
I don’t see things that way. To me, we’re just a blip. A flash in the pan. No better or worse than any other species. And in the immortal words of George Carlin… the planet will shake us off like a bad case of the fleas.
And she’ll be just fine.
Yeah that’s fine. It’s thinking like that, that made a problem a predicament. There are many events coming down the pike with little or no chance of mediation and choosing to block it out is as good a coping mechanism as any.
Every month or less you read where a scientist finds some climate or environmental condition to be much worse than previously modelled. They are conservatively constrained, lay people and concerned uninhibited others are not. There is no mass indoctrinisation of the AGW, But facts do speak the undeniable truth. It is the exact opposite that is indeed the case, for the deniers and believers in pseudo science to soothe their “concerns”.
Your last paragraph is of course true and unfortunately the human race has lived up to that meme perfectly. Planet husbandry has never entered a conscious thought. I enjoy your writing….you have a talent there.
Are you trying to frighten me?
Will me being more like you change anything?
Do you think this planet was made for us and that we’ve messed it up?
Do you think our species is capable of optimal or idealistic behaviour?
How many people do you think will survive the first few years post BAU?
When do you think end of BAU will happen?
No, no, no, no, dunno, no idea….feel better.
Bandits, thank you for playing!
The frothing AGW crowd is quite amusing …. if pressed for solutions they generally gather under the skirts of Solar Jesus…. aka The Green Technology God…
If one really wants to get them frothing at the mouth one can add a tablet of alka selzer when the spittle begins to fly … or simply point out that solar panels are made in China using monumental amounts of electricity provided by the filthiest type of coal on the planet (lignite)
Not only do they froth — they become apoplectic and on the verge of having an aneurysm.
In extreme cases it is recommended they be straight-jacketed and delivered to the institution.
Humour truly is the ambrosia of the gods. Keep it coming FE. We’re in short supply over here in the trenches.
Rick, when I read your comments I recognize a kindered spirit and so much shared view of the world. It is rare to spot people like you so I salute you. If we would live in a same country I would definetly want to meet up with you. Ahu! (Like from a movie 300)
Shucks. Thanks Kanghi. I think we’re all kindred spirits here, really quite an exceptional crowd – even if we seem to be pulling in different directions at times. 😉
We all have Gail to thank for this platform. Her courage, honesty, and modesty are beyond paragon. I’ve been a member of many online communities but none have ever felt more like “home” than this. Could be something to do with the subject matter…
By the way, I’m mostly a hermit these days surrounded by my killer cats, zombie traps, and a healthy mistrust for intruders…
You’re welcome to approach the compound, but I can’t vouch for your safety…
There is without a doubt no other community that approaches that of FW…
I have dipped a toe onto others of recent but I quickly scurry back to FW because this is the only site/community that operates off of the premise that we are screwed because the low hanging fruit has been picked and eaten….
There are plenty of other sites that understand that catastrophe is at hand — but none recognize the root cause — and generally they and their commentators believe that if only we could root out corruption and cronyism and before liberal/conservative — all would be fixed…
They also generally believe that there will – at some point be a reset of the economy.
They will absolutely not consider any other outcome….
That makes it rather difficult to engage in any sort of meaningful debate.
On FW we have general agreement on the disease — which opens the door to interested discussions, agreements and disagreements on what comes next.
Yep Rick, Ms. Tverberg has done amazing work and if I happen to make it past collapse I will be endepted to her insight as it increased my haste to prepare to inevitable. Before Gail I always tought that the ecological limits are what kick in the first and around 2040 latest, even it now feels all changes are gathering momentum at the same time. As Dennis Meadows was saying in 2012 it is now too later for the sustainable development.
Enjoyed your story of how the realization kicked in, high drop from martian dreams to earthly woes of limits 🙂 I feel that the future is hopefully kind of secular amish lives, with limited reproduction and living in regenerative communities powered by regenerative permaculture design and holistic management. Sadly the more probable way is filled with violence and threats too numerous to concider.
If you would happen to come out from your hermit to World Science Fiction Convention 2017, Finland, let me know and I take you out for a beer! When it is even still possible by then, who knows..Btw. is a zombie trap a pit where you plan to drop the slum fellows wanting to take a piece of your cat food? Entertaining piece of tought, no need to answer, high five :).
High five Kanghi!
Actually, the World Science Fiction Convention 2017 sounds like fun! I’ll make an effort to hop on a plane if they’re still operational by then. There, how’s that for positive thinking. Gotta keep spirits high from now on. No need to dwell on doom and gloom once you have it down. Enjoy every day as it comes.
>>>high drop from martian dreams to earthly woes of limits
Yes, I’m fairly sure most of my neurons got fried in that particular fast elevator drop! Lesser mortals would not have survived…
I’ll have to put up some blueprints for zombie traps one day. That’ll be my contribution towards the post BAU survival repository.
Not as silly as it sounds. I think security will be the most important aspect of community longevity in the days to come.
In cities, I have no idea how millions of people will organise themsleves. Or how the authorities will manage the chaos once people realise the jig is up. I forsee a descent into urban warfare between rival factions that will not be easily resolved. Then the hunger comes…
…and the alien mothership decloaks to tell us it was all a test…
‘…and the alien mothership decloaks to tell us it was all a test…’
So maybe it’s not such a great idea to max out the credit cards…. just in case 🙂
‘As Dennis Meadows was saying in 2012 it is now too later for the sustainable development.’
I watched an interview with Mr Meadows some months ago — he appeared grim faced — despondent — and made the comment that we had left things too late…
I wholeheartedly diagree.
There was never any choice in the matter – we grow or we collapse back into a very primitive state (at best)
Rewind back to the 1800’s…. Europe’s forests have been decimated in our quest for metal tools and weapons….
Now imagine that fossil fuels did not exist — and that North America was a desert.
Without a doubt we would have continued to hack into every last tree completely decimating the continent
That would have lead to the collapse of civilization …. and we’d have been forced back into a primitive state
As far as I can see — the only truly sustainable way of living is that of a primitive hunter gatherer…. essentially living like an ape or monkey….
Unfortunately our big brains demanded more than that….
I suspect Dennis Meadows would not agree with me — pity to have to spend your final days depressed about something that was inevitable…..
FE, you seem to forget, that it was too much hunting, what caused the neolithic collapse in the first place, forcing people to turn to agriculture. Gone are the great herds of Mammonths and other now extinct megafauna. Same happened in all continents exept Africa in witch the wipeout is sadly now happening and braking down the global nutritient cycle even further.
As we now have the knowledge even if it is not yet widely distributed we should work to restore and regenerate the great tapestry of ecosystem we are part of.
However it can be sustainable in places where people recognize the limits and as a culture limit reproduction, like has happened to at least on Amazon and on this one Pasific island where existed hard death sentence limits on how many kids each couple could have.
I suppose as has been mentioned — the harnessing of fire and the ensuing manufacture of weapons and tools from metal was the turning point….
If we looked at the hunter gatherer communities that continue to exist today …. I suspect we’d find that they have limited access to metal weapons and tools….
And that the most coveted trade objects would likely be metal tools and weapons….
I understand that in NZ the Maoris would make women available to whalers on contract — they received guns and ammo and other BAU gear in return …. which they used to attack other Maori tribes…..
The ‘noble savage’ does not exist…. never has…
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/77/Benjamin_west_Death_wolfe_noble_savage.jpg
Yes Kanghi, if nature is ever to recover from the ravages of man we would not only have to forego the use of agriculture but also the use of fire and weapons too.
Alternatively, we could just become extinct.
“I think we’re all kindred spirits here”
We are mostly in agreement here, at least concerning the main points. Sometimes I get doubts about the conclusions and believe they have something to do with a common brain chemistry of the readers of OFW. This site may be an attractor for some of the 7,5 billion people on this planet that have a similar brain chemistry as I have. Is it only about being clear sighted enough to see these gloomy outlooks? What’s the chance that we are wrong and that our gloomy conclusions where misguided by our brain chemistry?
Christopher, lets test that, “What’s the chance that we are wrong and that our gloomy conclusions where misguided by our brain chemistry” shall we.
– what happens when businesses do not make profits, or enough profits?
– what happens when publicly traded companies on the stock market have abyssmal earnings per share?
– what happens when unemployment goes through the roof, while governments debts are also through the roof?
– what happens when private and public debt reaches such heights that consumption tanks?
It should be clear that we grow until we collapse.
Collapse can not be BAU-lite, in stages, rationing, coupons and martial law, because the financial system, every monetary transaction everywhere, will stop. Its not micro, macro Keynesian or Austrian. Its the structure of the financial system itself. Growth must be pursued at all cost, finally, when growth no longer is possible, everything unravels rather quickly. When our banks and currencies go bye-bye, also the JIT-economy stops. If not, then it needs to be explained how a Plan-B of a global financial system is put in place in hours (when need be). If a coupon rationing is in place instantly, everywhere globally, it needs explaining how global trade of raw materials, spare parts etc. is done. If such a Plan-B can not be put in place within hours, then groceries will be empty, the grid will fall, trucks and tractors will stop (rationing can´t be made when trucks stop) fertilizers wont come, payrolls can´t be made. Everything stops, or rather SHTF.
Brain chemistry hardly changes these things, does it?
As Gail has suggested…. the physics of the situation we are in are very bad…. so is the math….
Wishful thinking cannot overcome reality.
It’s kinda like someone saying ‘I can fly — I truly believe I can fly’
No you cannot. Humans cannot fly because we do not have the appropriate anatomy.
‘That does not matter – I believe I can fly — look I will show you’
Up to the 50th floor we go…. you can’t fly – if you jump out that window you will die.
‘Don’t be silly — I can fly — I know I can fly – physics and math and gravity are irrelevant – watch me fly’
Splat.
“Collapse can not be BAU-lite, in stages, rationing, coupons and martial law, because the financial system, every monetary transaction everywhere, will stop.”
Places are falling off the main system and developing alternative financial systems already. As long as some areas severe off and make a new system while the main system exists, it can happen gradually. The Chinese-Russian group can detach from the USD system, and then when the USD system freezes up and dies, the Yuan system takes its place.
I think that, while the financial system is likely the first domino to collapse as it is the most fragile and the closest to its limits, it is also the least important piece. Food and energy limits cannot be replaced with new systems the way a financial system can. Ecological limits are probably pretty firm, even depopulation may not be able to thwart them.
‘it is also the least important piece’
Oil extraction requires BAU to happen – the financial system is the spine of BAU — the operating system …. if the financial system collapses BAU collapses … oil production collapses…. global trade collapses…. the food production system collapses because it requires energy to operate the irrigation pumps… it requires oil and gas to make the pesticides and fertilizers that are used to grow our food …
The financial system is by far the most important component of BAU —- if it dies BAU dies — and we die…
Right!
van Kent, what you say is clear and logical if you ask me. But I am still trying to see if there are any blind spots that would possibly allow for BAU-lite. Some other commentators around here are convinced about BAU-lite eventhough I find their arguments rather weak.
The kind of linear logical reasoning your reasoning is an example of is obviously successful in math and the natural sciences. The logic of life seems to be different. Sören Kierkegaard explained this well when he wrote:
“You live life forwards but understand it backwards.”
(My own translation so blame me if it’s bad english.)
History is a bit like life. That’s why I am harbouring a grain of doubt. In speaking of history, did you ever read “Decline of the West” by Oswald Spengler (published in the early 20ies)? The conclusions in this book is definetly related to what we write of here at OFW.
Christopher, I like Kierkegaard, but it was Wittgenstein (and Kant) who were really helpful in my work.
Sorry, I glanced “Decline of the West” by Oswald Spengler over, but I did not read it. I will, if you like it that much. But “civilization will move in the direction of its Destiny, regardless of our choices” Oswald has that part right.
Logic may be inadequate to fully describe how this superorganism of ours works. But I think Gail has it nailed, and its just the finer details that now have to be played out as they come.
Yes, I have thought about that too – the brain chemistry thing – and I think it’s a valid observation that explains why like minded people congregate around sites like FW.
It’s possible that we’re hard wired to peer into the gloom when asking ourselves difficult questions even though we know we might get hurt. This could be because we are…
non conformist – people tell you not to do something, but you do it anyway
pathological curiosity – insatiable need to know
masochist – you get pleasure from this?
depressive – your mind naturally tends to the dark side
death worshiper – there are people who dream about all things death
I think Van Kent gave you a great answer and I agree with it whole-heartedly. And FE gives a great analogy. Both use logic to point out that our brain chemistry or whatever the reason is for us being here has little to do with the unfolding panaroma and will have no effect on the outcome.
I’m like you. Even when presented with sufficient data from various credible sources I’m unable to commit 100% to the conclusions. Even if it’s only 1%, I will not let go of that grain of doubt. It’s a hedge, I guess, until I see it with my own eyes…
The reason I don’t put all my faith in logic is because their is nothing logical about our existence. Logic is a human construct and useful for resolving problems but it’s not infallible. People place a lot of confidence in logical deduction but it doesn’t make you right. The only thing that makes you right is empirical evidence.
But that’s what we have plenty of. The evidence so far can only lead to one conclusion, but until it actually happens you can’t be 100% sure.
Let’s say you’re 99% sure but you leave room for a black swan that kicks the can another ten or twenty years. Because it’s a black swan you can’t possibly know what form it will take or how large the impact will be. It’s an unknown, but you have to allow for it in your calculations otherwise you are not being honest.
The more you think about what the black swan could be, or if one will even materialise, the more your head will spin as it slowly, but surely drives you nuts. So you apply logic and conclude that a black swan won’t be sufficient to change the outcome because it would have to be miraculous.
I think that’s why most people having reached this point, will opt for closure and finalise their conclusions right there because… it solves the problem of intolerable doubt.
Remember too, that although we represent a tiny minority that harbours exclusive knowledge (specialness bias?) there are much larger communities that have been professing these kinds of things for milenia – fundamental christians.
There, feel better now, don’t you.
I don’t think it will be a black swan that kicks this further —- rather I think that if we get more years out of the engine it will be because the men in the think-tanks roll out another gimmick that has stood up to the rigors of super computer testing….
If not for the men in think-tanks …. it would have been all she wrote in 2008….
Hats off to Bernanke and his team for buying us another 8 years… let’s hope something can be done to ring another 8 years out of this planet….
“it was Wittgenstein (and Kant) who were really helpful in my work.”
What was your work about? (Wittgenstein is the Kant of the language.)
If I don’t recollect wrong, Wittgenstein did read Spengler and was quite influenced. Wittgenstein’s pupil, the finn Georg von Wright did at least study Spengler. When I was studying Spengler 10-12 years ago I found this piece of wotk by von Wright. Could be of interest to you:
https://biblioteket.stockholm.se/titel/362540
It’s in swedish but maybe there is also a finnish translation if that doesn’t suit you. (I don’t know if von Wright wrote in finnish or swedish.) It could work as an introduction to Spengler.
“civilization will move in the direction of its Destiny, regardless of our choices”
Western civilization is characterized as “Faustic” by Spengler. In the german tradition Faust sells his soul to the devil in order to reach deep knowledge and power. When the contract with the devil is reaching its deadline everything goes to hell so to speak. Fast collapse is very “faustic” and it does seem to be the destiny of the west. But as I pointed out, the whims of history is sometimes very unexpected. It’s not like the mechanical clockwork of the solar system.
For instance, Matthew is proposing a possible alternative in a comment above:
“Places are falling off the main system and developing alternative financial systems already. As long as some areas severe off and make a new system while the main system exists, it can happen gradually. The Chinese-Russian group can detach from the USD system, and then when the USD system freezes up and dies, the Yuan system takes its place.
I think that, while the financial system is likely the first domino to collapse as it is the most fragile and the closest to its limits, it is also the least important piece. Food and energy limits cannot be replaced with new systems the way a financial system can. Ecological limits are probably pretty firm, even depopulation may not be able to thwart them.”
It’s a possibility and as such interesting but maybe not the destiny of the west…
Anyway, I recommend “Decline of the West”. Read at least an abridged version. The book is unique. The only reason to way Spengler was not considered as one of the most important truth sayers of the 20th century is probably because his conclusions was too gloomy for most people. Also Gail doesn’t get the kind of attention she deserves for basically the same reason.
As a teaser I found some Spengler quotes :
“Optimism is cowardice.”
“Through money, democracy becomes its own destroyer, after money has destroyed intellect.”
“What is truth? For the multitude, that which it continually reads and hears.”
“One day the last portrait of Rembrandt and the last bar of Mozart will have ceased to be — though possibly a colored canvas and a sheet of notes will remain — because the last eye and the last ear accessible to their message will have gone.”
Christopher, Georg Henrik von Wright was obligatory reading when I started my studies of political economy at the university in -95. Later I started two R&D IT firms with some buddies of mine with the easy money the dot-com bubble provided. R&D the structure how information flowed made Wittgenstein useful. After selling the businesses, doing some obligatory family consultancy behind the scenes to the family politicians (writing speeches, prepairing the way for the biggest welfare state reform since the 1960 etc. which I failed miserably, because all scenarios of constant gdp growth to pay for the welfare state, led to global collapse..), been head of sales within different industrial services firms. Now I´m just trying to network within the municipality, industrial facilities, always interested about visiting and providing services to medicine factories, gun factories, mines, energy facilities of all kinds etc. etc. Getting to know who does what where. And getting to know the guys who actually do the job.
Other then that, well, just trying to ramp up food production best I can.
Matthew would like to have a martial law in Russia and China. The AIIB leading the way and everybody falling in line. But the russian and chinese economy is just as dependant on the global financial system as everybody else. When international trade fails, so does the rationing, coupons, martial law and all such contingency plans. Its hard for people to see that. But once you see what stuff comes in, from where, how, payed in what currency, with what terms of payment, how it is processed in the factory, then trucked to next facility and finally to the end user, it becomes clear how fragile this system of ours actually is. I´ve seen many factories filing bankruptcy and all the stages that come before that. And despite Matthews scenario is tempting, it is impossible.
If you recommend Oswald Spengler that much, I have no other choice but to read him through.
‘it is impossible’ Yes.
Spengler is not on Audible 🙁
Van Kent,
“how fragile this system of ours actually is”
you are right. That’s the price of being like Faust. I found this link concerning faustian culture, a very short summary of “Decline of the West”:
https://faustianeurope.wordpress.com/2007/07/24/oswald-spengler-and-faustian-culture/
Could be interesting to Fast Eddy as well.
LOL!
I was yesterday at the diner party with my friends and none of them is believing my predictions, although the probability that I’m right ranges from 2% to 30% according to their opinions.
I assumed BAU will last 10-15 years at the most with crashing the bottom-of-the-global-pyramid countries first, exactly as we see it now. So I would say the collapse of BAU is even ahead of the schedule, considering the news lately.
We’ll see who was wrong, won’t we?
Rick,
Though Eddy is right about the point being moot, still, here are some musings of AI.
AI algorithms are somewhat familiar to me. At the turn of the century I made some algorithms and eventually sold two businesses forward. I was 20 and with the dot-com-bubble it was pretty easy to get funding etc. Later I have been helping my sister make AI language algorithms, for the police to find what they need to find in the Deep Web. Language is an interesting thing, it can find intent and “paradigms” so it can find people planning to make bombs and stuff..
I don´t know if its any help to you in your writing but.. Google has everything it needs to make a “mimic”. They only lack the “time” dimension. They have language analyzed, translated, filled in. They have profiles, age groups, interest groups etc. etc. The only thing missing is how to interpret what “time” does to information, knowledge, language, or.. intelligence. Time can be added in several ways. My favourite would be to use as a “walking stick” some sort of drag and drop grid, to get a wider variety of exact numerical values to each “choice” of concept. By getting a wider variety of exact numerical values of concepts one can start to assess paths and points of interest. With exact numerical values on concepts that are organized in to paths and points of interest you get a numerical “staircase” of knowledge developing through time. In real world applications that would mean something like add-in to Google, something like a “crowdsourcing wisdom” app.
Now, take Google language analyzed, translated, filled in, profiles, age groups, interest groups and add a “crowdsourcing wisdom”-app to make company crowdsourcing, or customer feedback more efficient (customer feedback automaton that can organize the feedback in different paths like one for R&D, one for marketing, one for sales, one for production etc. etc.). What have you got when these are combined? That´s a mimic.. What is a mimic? Remember your basic Turing test. If its a mimic, then thats a soft AI. Just add “language fill” and voilà. Ok, how to make a singularity, well, easy explanation; make the mimic extrapolate itself. That’s the easy recipe to make a hard AI. I belive that recipe is something Turing would have approved.
I know the point is moot and everything, but just thought it might help your writing.
I wonder how AI researchers would react to you saying that the point is moot?
I would love to sit in on THAT panel, to watch that debate unfold, to observe the reactions on each and every face as the dots connect in real time…
A lot of what you outline forms part of the plot of my first story although I’m partial to adding fantasy elements as plot devices. And after reading FW I realise it’s for good reason!
Essentially, a robotic future has been established with humans living in controlled environments. Synthetic telepathy is involved, smart dust, elitist transhumans, a mysterious voice that rallies a group of humans and Freemechs – robots that have attained free will – around a threat to eliminate them all. There’s a biodome on a remote island in the Canadian tundra. A tower called the Blade. And a global AI administrative system known as the Elect…
That series ends up in space with the AI systems evolving to become a single dictatorial ruling entity that presides over his own creation. Technology at this point is indistinguishable from magic – to quote Arther C. Clarke. His creation starts to turn on him and he begins to have doubts about the nature of existence. This leads him on an epic search for answers…
I address some of the things you mention, but the plot takes place further along in what would have been AI development in our real world.
Something more near term and relevant to what you said would be William Hertling’s Singularity series which deals with the rise of emergent AGI from an advanced email system…
But yes, I leach from all sources, so thanks. I’m thinking we should continue with whatever projects we have on the table in the same way that Isaac Asimov continued writing to his dying day. But the day that the online bookstores close down, that’s the day I will calmly close the laptop, stroll outside into the sunshine and say, “Welcome to the real world.”
China regards such people as “splittists”. Bear in mind that China owns part of Mongolia and (I believe) all of Tibet – not to mention other minority “nations” without their own state. Anybody who encourages autonomy for the Palestinians is therefore potentially extremely subversive in the eyes of the Chinese authorities.
Time Is Running Out For Freeport After Downgrade To Junk And Striking Warning From Moody’s
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-28/time-running-out-freeport-after-downgrade-junk-and-striking-warning-moodys
Dominoes…
Meanwhile today on Bloomberg in “Popular Commodities News”
Caterpillar Cheered for Hunkering Down as Machinery Outlook Dims
OPEC States Say No Meeting Planned as Russia Floats Talks
Oil Pares Gains as OPEC Delegates Temper Russia Meeting Talk
Shell Needs to Repay Investors Who Backed Biggest Ever Wager
Potash Cuts Dividend as Earnings Drop With Fertilizer Prices
Freeport Indonesia’s Export Permit Expires Without Extension
And my favourite headline; 😀
Why Goldman Sachs Says $30 Oil Isn’t Proof of Weak Demand
But, hey oil;s rallied a bit so it must be good, right? 😛
Yeah, pretty funny on Goldman’s part. They should ask themselves how low must oil go to initiate enough growth to burn through the oversupply? Why wasn’t 60, then 50 or even 40 a barrel low enough?
Breaking News!
The price of oil rallied on news that municipalities were purchasing thousands of aviation fuel powered snow melting machines… and that more snow was in the forecast…
Moody’s warning is striking:
As a consequence, a wholesale recalibration of ratings in the mining industry is deemed necessary.
That’s fancy speak for — this sucker is going down….
Feel the power … of The Elders…
Hong Kong said likely to deport anti-Semitic French comedian
Dieudonne held by immigration officers at the city’s airport since his arrival
http://www.timesofisrael.com/hong-kong-said-likely-to-deport-anti-semitic-french-comedian/
BTW – I cannot find his act online (go figure!) — what I understand is that he mocks all religions and their hypocrisy — and that he addresses the Palestine Israel issue on the side of the Palestinians — a no no with The Elders….
The relevance of this post to the issue at hand is that it demonstrates who really is in control of things…. imagine the power one must have to dictate to Hong Kong immigration …. actually Hong Kong is China so this is dictating to China…. since when does anyone tell China what to do?
Hong Kong is regularly visited by what many describe a brutal dictator http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/11627848/Grace-Mugabe-the-businessman-and-the-Hong-Kong-villa.html
Yet he doesn’t get detained by immigration.
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
The Rothschild are invested in the third largest bank in China and this is just incidental knowledge on my part. I would guess they have numerous investments in Chinese financial sector.
Funny how they fly under the radar….
Looks like Mother Nature is fighting back against rising human population, because we have to ask ourselves where the heck did Zika virus suddenly come from?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-zika-who-idUSKCN0V61JB
Spread of Zika alarming, 4 million cases a possibility: WHO
Zika virus – linked to severe birth defects in thousands of babies in Brazil – is spreading “explosively” and could affect as many as four million people in the Americas, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday.
“Last year, the virus was detected in the Americas, where it is now spreading explosively. As of today, cases have been reported in 23 countries and territories in the region,” she said, promising that the WHO would act fast.
“We are not going to wait for the science to tell us there is a link (with birth defects). We need to take actions now,” she said.
There is no vaccine or treatment for Zika, which is like dengue and causes mild fever, rash and red eyes. An estimated 80 percent of people infected have no symptoms.
Brazil’s Health Ministry said in November that Zika is linked to a fetal deformation known as microcephaly, in which infants are born with abnormally small heads and brains.
Brazil has reported 3,893 suspected cases of microcephaly, the WHO said last week, more than 30 times more than in any year since 2010 and equivalent to 1-2 percent of all newborns in the state of Pernambuco, one of the worst-hit areas.
“The possible links, only recently suspected, have rapidly changed the risk profile of Zika from a mild threat to one of alarming proportions,” she said. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said on Wednesday that the country must wage war against the mosquito that spreads the virus, focusing on eliminating the insect’s breeding grounds.
“We will see little mini-outbreaks like in Florida or in Texas that can be well-controlled with mosquito vector control. Hopefully, we will not see anything worse than that,” he told CBS News in an interview.
Asked about the risks for those traveling to Brazil for the summer Olympics, Fauci said aggressively controlling mosquitoes there “is probably the best way”.
Uh, excuse me but how many pregnant women are going to the Olympics in Brazil? Nada!
Just to add a note to that previous post: Many poor people in Brazil use catch basins to collect rain water because of the drought there and because they often do not have running water. The larvae grow in the basins and so trying to get rid of places the mosquito breed may be a goal, but not a reality that can be achieved.
In case of global spread pandemonium the concept of the very last human generation being born with defective and smaller heads would be nature’s last revenge.. lolz
The perfect candidates for political and high level financial positions.
” Many poor people in Brazil use catch basins to collect rain water because of the drought there and because they often do not have running water. The larvae grow in the basins and so trying to get rid of places the mosquito breed may be a goal, but not a reality that can be achieved.”
Just toss a minnow or gold fish into the catch basin. If it is big enough, you might even get a small meal out of the deal. Should start a charity with Bono, Goldfish for Brazil.
“Looks like Mother Nature is fighting back against rising human population, because we have to ask ourselves where the heck did Zika virus suddenly come from?”
Probably the same place as California Flu and Lyme disease … another oopsie from the incompetent fools in the US Military.
Interesting point, Matt. Ever see the movie ‘Jacob’s Ladder’? It’s about a US military drug experiment to initiate a psychotic state in soldiers so they become better soldiers I guess. My memory is it goes haywire as some kill one another. They try to visually depict the drug trip one of them takes (Tim Robbins) and alludes to the testing being a real occurrence. It’s a good movie, but also very disturbing.
There’s already plenty of rumours going around. Another one is that the small head babies are caused by a bad vaccine given to pregnant mothers and this is a coverup. Also Billy Gates is known for promting the release of GM mosquitos. Who knows what stuff is out there that shouldn’t be out there.
Let me get this right, right now we are on a cusp of collapse because of the inefficiency of oil extraction. Yet we see this investment going on in China!
http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/01/27/464598671/with-growing-investments-chinas-influence-in-autos-is-expanding
China is the largest car market in the world. Chinese shoppers easily buy twice as many cars as Americans do. Chinese companies have been investing billions in the auto industry
…Rebecca Lindland with KBB.com says car makers can’t afford to ignore Chinese consumers because of “the sheer volume that China pulls in — it helps you justify investments in new products, in new technologies, in vehicles that wouldn’t necessarily sell in volume here in the States — that you can easily sell them in both here and China
There is still a tremendous amount of demand, especially for luxury cars in China. “They like their well-equipped vehicles. There’s lot of profit to be made there,” Lindland says.
Analysts say Chines-built cars in the U.S. are only a matter of time, but right now China has a big impact on the cars we’re already driving
Gail, am I missing something here?
For instance, look at the new Boxster, that design is absolutely disgusting, negating the tradition of the brand, but they’ve probably assembled some “focus group” of young Asians presenting them competing designs to choose from, so the factory give it a go.. And that would be only one of the many examples in the long line of pushed globalized uniformity and regression in aesthetic and other values.
But more directly to the article, it only said the Chinese market is so huge, that their sheer demand keeps the wheels of “innovation cycle” aka race for higher efficiency seeking investments humming for awhile longer.
The carz industry and overall carz culture is probably the iconic example of current humanoid’s version manifested insanity, so that’s it.
Demand means nothing if resources are not available. Perhaps there will not be enough economically extractable resources available to expand the auto infrastructure in China in any meaningful way. I subscribe to the belief that there are limits to growth in a finite world.
Greg, what do you mean? …Any meaningful way? Lord, these guys are out buying Americans 2 to 1 in cars! Someone posted here they have road projects that boggle the mind! Hey, I didn’t even bring up air travel…their airport expansion is off the board and just saw a commercial advertising vacation destinations to all major Chinese Cities.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jy1J-xT8EHk
giving a plug, one, two, three
She’s got a ticket to ride…he’s got a ticket
EVERYONE wants a ticket to FLY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5wS7O_GedYI
Perhaps we need to FW — FW … and FW Lite….
http://www.theclippingpoint.net/look-this-is-not-a-porsche-macan
Vince, that’s a link to China’s version of the Porsche Macan. It looks much the same but costs less than 1/3rd of Porsche’s version. Not sure what the power, cornering or reliability is though. I’d like to get one and may look into it, if they will ship it here.
Stilgar, that is a real sharp looking set of wheels! Who wouldn’t want one of those (especially at that price!). The Chinese are just itching to be an export machine of higher value products like automoblies and airplanes. They already bought lenovo computers from IBM (I own one and it’s low cost laptop that does the task). In order for Boeing to win a airplane order from them, Boeing was require to transfere some state of the art technology to the Chinese to produce part of the plane! Literally, workers at the Seattle plant witness their production machinery being removed from the plant floor to be shipped off to China!
Pardon me, something is up we are NOT in the loop here. Everyone is aware of peak oil and the implications. Suppose there is an “understanding” to keep the hamster wheel turning and to divvie up the pie without full gown collapse. At least the heavyweights must be keeping it all together and have it fall in slow stages.
“Suppose there is an “understanding” to keep the hamster wheel turning and to divvie up the pie without full gown collapse.”
Could be, Vince. It would seem unlikely that major corporations are unaware of the effects of diminishing returns. There’s a lot more agreements behind closed doors than most realize. Ask yourself this; was it just a coincidence that subsequent Microsoft software programs are not compatible with many printers, scanners and digital cameras? And if not, then did Microsoft make big bucks in addition to their software with side agreements with HP, Canon and numerous other corporations to purposefully cause those products to become obsolete? We ran into that problem when we tried to go from XP to Fiesta, and found a way to get a new computer with XP so we could continue to use our HP printer, HP Scanner and Canon digital camera. Is part of Bill Gates fortune achieved at an even greater expense to the public than most realize, while he ACTS philanthropic in regards to the poor? He’s got a lot of nerve or maybe that type of collusion keeps the hamster wheel turning.
The system must keep growing or collapse. So it will keep trying to do that through the expansion of more and more debt, even as GDP output per unit of debt created keeps dropping, because nobody wants or can afford all this crap. The couldn’t in 2008 and they sure as heck can’t do it now. Hence the reason for commodities deflation. This pretence will continue until the day before collapse occurs. One minute the markets will be hitting all-time highs, loan portfolios will be expanding with more toxic junk, and the next, people will be running for the hills. Just see if I’m wrong…
You won’t be wrong.
People like cheap cars. China builds everything cheaply. If China builds more cars for us (with some of its workers being laid off from other jobs), it will mean fewer jobs in the US, Europe, and Japan. Also, other car-making countries, like Mexico.
Dear Finite Worlders
For a fantastic interview, go to
http://fatsummit.com
sign up, and look at the interview with Dean Ornish. It is only available for free today, although you can purchase the series.
The argument about the details of fat, red meat, and calories in-calories out may be incomprehensible to you if you aren’t aware of some of the background. The takeaway, if you don’t want to get immersed in those details, is that Ornish has a plan which reverses chronic disease with simple lifestyle changes. It works for virtually everyone, there is no complicated response to minute differences in genetic inheritance, etc.
The second point, which is particularly relevant to Doomers, is Dean’s story about his own suicidal tendencies back in the early 1970s, and meeting a swami at his parents house in Dallas. The meeting started him on a lifetime of looking at the world differently. He says that the swami told him: ‘the meditation and the yoga do not make you happy…they quiet down the body and mind so that you can notice that your natural state is happiness.’
This simple beginning has blossomed into sociogenomics, which today shows us that interactions with others which are based on love and cooperation turns on genes which foster good health.
I believe that the message on sociogenomics should be particularly interesting to those who have been seduced by the diatribes against communal activities…maybe even prompting you to sing Kumbaya!
Don Stewart
I’m a meditator but I’m not deluded enough to believe that any of these strategies will amount to much if/when the lights go out and nation after nation collapses into irreversable post BAU conditions.
Every little thing helps, every little band aid, but in the end things will devolve into unsavoury living conditions for most. No amount of meditation or organic carrots will lift your spirits at that point.
None know the hour for it cannot be known and miracles don’t exist – or so I’ve been told. What remains is to live each day with vigour and aplomb, making the most of what you have. Graceful acceptance is sometimes the best strategy.
Dear Rick Grimes
Today’s interview with Dr. Michael Roizen is funny. (Maybe I will write about it separately). After much contentious discussion about the animal protein and saturated fat issues, Roizen finally states that ‘managing stress’ is probably the most healthful thing people can do.
Don Stewart
They’re selling TM. That’s transcendental meditation as taught by Maharishi Mahesh Yogi which is the technique that I learned back in 1995. Nothing wrong with the technique itself IMO – it can be life-changing – but the organisation leaves a lot to be desired. Mind control cult would be putting it kindly.
Falling Down the TM Rabbit Hole
http://www.suggestibility.org/
Rick Grimes
How do you get from Dr. Roizen to the Maharishi? There are interviews with several people who practice meditation as part of a total wellness package…but that is very well established in the scientific literature.
Don Stewart
Again I agree – live for today — because what’s coming is going to be an apocalypse beyond even what the darkest mind can envision.
I am not even the slightest bit perturbed that my expensive solar pump rig is buggered…. other than I could have used all that cash to buy a bloody lot of good whiskey for the end of days party…
Today from RT, Russia keeps negotiating about possible cut in production with OPEC(their initiative), but won’t cut in winter which is technologically impossible, perhaps might be open to coordinate cut in summer time. Lets not jump ahead, it could be the next summer or never..
In another article they described how after years and years of activity the BRICS only now improved their voting powers/quota within IMF, but still don’t have/share the veto with the US, so should this another upgrade of their power ever happen, the institution would be first abandoned anyways similarly to real powers of UN. In summary, another evidence of very loooooooong process of decay..
maybe we should go with this guy
Wouldn’t mind living there. Truly amazing what some people get up to.
Here comes the sun:
http://www.kaust.edu.sa/assets/downloads/kicp-solar-energy-study.pdf
http://fs5.directupload.net/images/160127/e8fecslt.jpg
KICP Energy Study
Wishful thinking at its best!
http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2016/2016-outlook-for-energy.pdf
It would take a lot of coal, oil and NG to build out that much solar. Hopefully there will be enough spare capacity left (as we build out this solar infrastructure) to maintain the current infrastructure, create more new jobs and feed and house the ever growing populations of the world. Given the time line in the chart there would also have to be enough spare capacity to maintain, rebuild and replace aging solar PV and wind turbine equipment as well. . Given the extremely low true round trip EROEI of solar PV, and eyeballing the area under the curves for fossil fuels and solar PV, it would appear to me that the bulk of the remaining fossil fuel reserves would be used to build and maintain the solar PV capacity. In my opinion the fossil fuel estimates in the chart need to be about double what it is to realize this solar dream.
I think they should have used this picture for the “sun” instead. Teletubbies laughing sun…
http://img2-3.timeinc.net/people/i/2015/news/150105/teletubbies-800.jpg
So according to this wonderful graphic, solar won’t actually be making a dent in global energy supply until 2040!
And even then, it’ll take another 10 years to match output of natural gas!
Ok Gail, you may as well shut down this blog because our problems are solved. No more doom rants from FE required either! LOL!
We’re saved! There’s absolutely no need to panic for the next 30 years or so. Look, there’s still plenty of oil being pumped in 2050 too!
Great! Believe everything you see!
Thanks for the links!
Germany was in 2013 starting to bring back the gold from aroad, mainly from Paris and New York and the amouth was last year alone 210t and aim is to bring half of the reserves back by 2020. Bringing the boy safe back to Frankfurt, when it is still possible? (Sorry in finnish, but google translate, when in need)
http://www.taloussanomat.fi/rahoitus/2016/01/27/saksa-rahtasi-kultaa-kotiin-yha-nopeammin/20161042/12?pos=tuoreimmat
Doomsday Prepper Tip of the Day (no paywall)
Visit the dentist and replace all fillings that are more than 10 years old. Whether or not they need replacing. Old fillings crack and fall out. There will be no fillings post BAU — therefore when the fillings bust your teeth will rot and you will suffer.
Eddy is right, good teeth care is high in importance list for any reasonable person. However I think globally it is possible only for the wealthy.
Kanghi,
Corporations like Coca Cola couldn’t wait to sell there sugary sodas to third world markets, markets which have very limited dental care available. Dental health globally has suffered immensely because of it.
Don B
Same goes with knee replacements 😀
Boy, talk about overkill…complete redo of dental work/knee replacement!?
Talk about being a bunch of Nervous Nellies, makes me want to GAG…this comment forum is morphing to the macabre!
Fortunately for people who live in Delusistan fillings never fall out…. there is something in the water than prevents that…
But in Realitystan —- fillings fall out …. particularly when they have been in your mouth for decades…
In fact I’ve had 3 fillings break in the last 6 months along….. I am going to get the latest on replaced tomorrow…. and I will be checking to see if any others are past their use by date and they will come out too….
You are so fortunate to live in Delusistan…. I knew I should have emigrated there instead of New Zealand … damn!
Just pull them out…MAN UP!
“Just pull them out…MAN UP!”
Have you ever pulled out the broken remains of a tooth, that still has roots, just using pliers and no painkiller? I’ve met a few people who have. Definitely not for the faint of heart.
On the upside, fillings are another great use for gold.
Now if one was a truly hard core prepper…. one would go to the dentist and insist that he pull every last tooth out ….
Then order 3 sets of dentures…. always good to have some redundancy….
You mean like here, Matthew?
Doesn’t appear like Fast Eddy should have any difficulty
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qIvsVxu1uvs
Or …. one could make sure to hoard a few hockey pucks and sticks….. and line up a well placed slap shot…..
Holes left by missing teeth are the same as any other open wound
a quick way to get yourself dead, particularly with no preventive medication avavailable
Nah, don’t be such a sissy, girlie man. Fast Eddy can do what George Washington did and whittle himself a set of choppers out of all the wood he cut.
Best to prepare now for post BAU! BTW, strange as it is I once talked to an anthropologist that in his field they are not amazed at our dental technology so much, but rather at the rottenness of our teeth!
“No laughing matter: bacteria that causes dental disease became more frequent with the introduction of farming, and even more so after the Industrial Revolution”
Tooth decay bacteria evolved as diet changed
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2013/02/18/3691558.htm
Stefeun, thanks for the article….Fast Eddy has this problem licked because since he is failing at hobby farming, he’ll be best off trying hunter/gathering clan.
See Problem solved…
“Holes left by missing teeth are the same as any other open wound
a quick way to get yourself dead, particularly with no preventive medication available”
If you let it get infected. When I had my wisdom teeth removed – I foolishly did not do it before they came in as a teenager, instead I waited until mid-20s with roots into the jaw bones – it was not too hard to simply flush out the holes with water regularly until the holes sealed up.
For sure, without a hospital to run to every time you get infected, basic hygiene becomes that much more important, but it would be best to practise good hygiene always, even while you enjoy the benefits of BAU.
What a shame. That guy had a great looking set of teeth. Losing a molar is no laughing matter – he’ll regret decision.
I have 1 molar I’ve spent over $8,000 dollars on over time. On the 4th crown and it needed a root canal. But I get to chew on it and that’s priceless.
Dentists are rip off artists. First, they ALL want you to take a FULL set of dental XRAYs.
Get pissed off if say no, and in turn threaten not to treat you. Pretty much blackmail.
At least in my experience always looking to cap a tooth with a crown, when a filling will do nicely. They assume you MUST have no idea in deciding what you want or need.
If the insurance covers it…SPEND it!
Same with Doctors. Could not believe this Primary Doctor wanted a set of chest XRAYs
for a routine annual exam.
The Annual Physical
The idea of a head-to-toe annual physical—complete with EKG, chest X-ray and full blood workup—is actually a leftover from an old American Medical Association precept of the 1960s, says Tallia. By the ’70s, experts in family medicine were already recommending periodic health screenings targeted to a patient’s age, gender and health risks. Are you a man between 18 and 64 with no risk factors for cardiovascular disease? The National Institutes of Health (NIH) recommends that you get your blood pressure checked every two years and your blood cholesterol screened, starting at 35, every five. At those screenings, your doctor should also be monitoring your height and weight and screening for alcohol and tobacco use and depression. And as of 2013, she may also test you for HIV, as the USPSTF is expected to recommend later this year. What about that EKG? “Absolutely non-predictive,” says Tallia. And the routine chest X-ray? “Totally nonpredictive—even in smokers.”
The takeaway: Until age 65, you probably don’t need an annual physical, but you should see your doctor for periodic health screenings—the appropriate interval should be based on your risk factors. You should also get a regular blood-cholesterol workup and blood pressure check. For a complete list of NIH recommendations, go to nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency and search health screening
False positives, for instance, can lead to anxiety, unnecessary and potentially harmful medical procedures like biopsies, and additional, often costly testing. In fact, the Institute of Medicine estimates that excessive testing, and the overtreatment it often leads to, costs the U.S. health system some $210 billion annually.
http://njmonthly.com/articles/top-doctors/to-test-or-not-to-test/
Just a money graveyard train they are milking.
Hard to prove cancer from Xrays.
Porcelain crowns break — gold inlays are the better option …. a diamond stud embedded in the gold is quite impressive at the disco house….
But Fast Eddy, those gold crowns will be prime targets of those roaming gangs at your homestead ready to rip them out and leaving you with a just stubs, oh my.
Post collapse experiment:
When the hordes arrive — drop a kilogram of gold 10 metres inside your gate — then 50 metres further…. drop a box full of fresh produce, some fresh killed chickens, and two dozen eggs…
I guarantee you the gold will be ignored.
Drop a box of produce, and there will be nothing left of your storages when the sun rises.
‘makes me want to GAG’
Ok….
Which you, do doubt, see a lot of from folks.
Further panic tips:
Get your eyes done to correct short-sight (spectacles look weak and can’t be replaced in Collapse).
And plastic surgery to give one’s face a suitably mean expression, to frighten away those apocalyptic starving zombies. Although some of us might be naturally endowed that way I suppose.
Myself, just planting fruit trees……
“Dentists are rip off artists. First, they ALL want you to take a FULL set of dental XRAYs.
Get pissed off if say no, and in turn threaten not to treat you. Pretty much blackmail.”
Nailed it Vince. I only allow bi-annual xrays at my dentist but it’s an ongoing battle.
Also, there’s a new form of blackmail with doctors. Referrals. “Oh I’m sorry you can’t see the Dr. unless you have a referral.” WTF? Is there any question that I’m a human? No, so why do I need a referral? I didn’t need a referral to see a Dr. 20 years ago, so why do all specialists now require them? Uh, is it because it’s a way of all doctors making more money? I recently had to get a referral for a Dr. from my regular Dr., got it and then was told the Dr. wasn’t taking anymore patients. So the money going to the regular Dr. was wasted money for me and profit for the corrupt Dr. system. So now I have to start over again and get another stupid waste of money and time referral.
Well if you have a gammy knee, isn’t it best to get it fixed, just in case? Hmm? Won’t be of much earthly use to anyone if you’re lame post-BAU.
That would make sense except to people who live Delusistan…. where knees never break and fillings have a lifetime guarantee.
I wonder if a brain surgeon could improve a person’s IQ before collapse … or at least remove cognitive dissonance….
Which reminds me of a TV documentary about Americans who felt that one of their limbs wasn’t theirs and therefore wanted it amputated. Multiple visits to a psychiatrist could not rid them of this obsession. Eventually, the psychiatrists came up with a radical solution. They found surgeons who were willing to amputate the limbs that were causing such mental distress. Amazingly, it worked! The doc showed one man who had his left leg amputated. For the first time in his life, he was truly happy – even though he kept falling over.
In the 1980s I had a friend who moaned to me that he’d lost one of his expensive Contac lenses and so had had to buy another pair – as apparently he couldn’t buy just one. When the lenses arrived, he put them in – only to discover that the original missing lens was in its case, where it had been all along. He hadn’t been able to see it because he wasn’t wearing it!. The post-BAU world of nil replacements is going to be so much fun. 🙂
FE, I think it’s also important that most of us get into shape – other than round. We may be soon hauling water, chopping trees and all that other pioneer stuff. It would be helpful if you can make it further than the end of the block. Then again, if the hording masses are overstuffed on average, they’ll never reach the city limits. Hmm.
“Then again, if the hording masses are overstuffed on average, they’ll never reach the city limits. Hmm.”
Every two pounds of extra body fat will keep you alive another day. So a person who is 60 pounds overweight can go an extra month, provided they have water and are not diabetic. Of course, they don’t need to live only on their own fat – a person could eat 1100 calories of food and burn a pound of fat for another 1100.
Rule of thumb is 100 calories to walk a mile, so even a morbidly obese person with a bit of food and a supply of clean water could waddle out to the countryside at five miles per day, and be in pretty good shape by the end of that first month.
Why would they need to walk?
Even bums have cars because of subprime auto loans…. let’s say the average vehicle has half a tank of petrol when collapse hits….
Most cars and travel 300+ km on half a tank…..
If I am in a city — collapse hits — grocery stores empty — the first problem will be water since the pumps will stop — I am not going to sit in the apartment drinking the rest of the Red Bull and Cola….
What I am gonna do is take all the frozen pizzas out of the fridge — all the potato chips and Doritos … and dump them in the car …. and I am gonna head for places where I expect there to be food….
I am also going to toss my handgun and a case of bullets into the car…. just in case I get to where the food is …. and the people aren’t sharing….
I have in my mind the frenzy that is Black Friday — I am thinking — Black Friday is nothing compared to the way people will behave when they are hungry …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ol6KWGMskCw
Just thinking as I watch that excellent series of fist fights in the first video…
How the presenters appear to be amused by the activity …. they are all smiles and bantering — as if people pounding the shit out of each other in a mall is normal…
There is a reality TV show here I believe….
Mall Wars….. Black Friday Beatings…. this is far better than MMA or Boxing…. BFB….
Those are outstanding fist fights — not much form but the passion — THE PASSION!
So every week we choose a different venue — malls pay fees to be featured on the show….
Then we have sponsors who agree to give away (not discount – giveaway) valuable items …. could be a dishwasher…. or a vacuum cleaner…. or a dining set….
Then handlers lead the players to starting gates just like they do horses at the Kentucky Derby …..
We encourage the taking of stimulants such as speed and crack…. the announcer screams ‘Who wants the big screen Tee Vee the most!!!!!!!’
The players are frenzied — they are banging their heads against the gates…. they are howling like wild dogs….. they are hurling abuse at each other through the cages….
Then ….. this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6eQ78HCGEA
And the gates fly open and the war is on!!!!
Fast Eddy will be the Simon Cowell of the show — mocking those who get trampled in the initial onslaught hurling abuse at the ‘weaklings’ —- insulting the obese women who dies of a heart attack shouting ‘you fat cow — you should have got yourself into shape before you came to my house to compete!’
This could be huge. No – this is HUGE! I’m lovin it!
Eddy, you are an alpha. Most (99%) people will sit in their apartment and drink the cola and red bull.
If they can get off the sofa to queue up for a half price DVD machine on Black Friday …. I reckon they’ll get up when they realize they are about to starve…
Mr DNA wants to live — he will not lay down and die….
The Dawn of the Dead is nothing on this…
100% agree with that….
That’s why I recommend the Fast Eddy Challenge….. start with the tree chopping challenge….
If people can’t do that now then they can forget about it post BAU….
Now is the time to harden yourself fellas…. show us what you are made of… take the Challenge and show us that you are able to hack it when the power goes off….
Walk the Walk ….. Just Do It…..
Are you at all serious? Surely, kiddo, you are kidding!.
What a friggin big BABY…chop down a tree….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PPyJa6aBfLA
As a species, we’ve obviously been around for too long…
Idiocracy is most definitely upon us…… extinction is appropriate
Dear Finite Worlders
The end of an era with KMO and the C-Realm Podcast, and Dmitry Orlov fed up and moving on.
http://www.c-realm.com/wp-content/uploads/500_Whiplash_Plateau.mp3
Don Stewart
Dmitry is going to put most of his emphasis overseas now–says his books are translated into 12 languages.
Don B., I just answered you post regarding Middletown fire up the thread.
Thanks for your reply, Stilgar. In ’97, I too was living in HVL – on Greenridge Rd. We probably walked right past each other at Hardester’s or maybe the Pro Shop. It was the week before 9/11 that I moved into a place east of Middletown, just off of Butts Canyon Rd.
A part of me will always remain in Middletown. Very glad to run into you here.
Don B
Good to run into you too, Don B. Greenridge – know it well. It’s a small community so I’m sure we did cross paths without knowing it. Off of Dear Hill is Fiddlers, then turn right on to Meadow View Dr. That’s where we are – good views.
Are you still east of Middletown on Butts or did you move elsewhere? We use that route to get to the east bay every few weeks or so to a foundry there. My wife is a sculptor. We both work on the armature, I put on the first layers of clay, then she does her magic act with the detail, then I make the polyeurathane molds/master molds and off to the foundry they go. Then we go down to work waxes, the foundry turns that into bronze and later have an unveiling for the customer with a dog and pony show. Use to live in Marin County, but that got so congested and pretentious, lol, so we moved to the country where it’s more laid back. Really like it here, but not sure what it will be like if things go south so to speak.
We were practically neighbors, Stilgar. I was just past the waterfall on the right. Yes, the views were terrific. The Butts Canyon house was in Black Oak, less than a mile out of Middletown. I understand that the fire burned across the property but the house survived. A neighbor there wasn’t so lucky. Some of those beautiful black oaks had to be over 100 years old.
I sold that home in ’07, moved to Santa Rosa and just relocated to WI last May. Now I’m close to over half of the world’s fresh water supply, the Great Lakes. No more ‘navy’ showers for me 🙂 In a warming world the extremes will only get worse. Floods, droughts and fires will likely occur more often than natural. I thought it best to get out of CA while the gettin’ was good – a climate refugee. Besides, there’s great sailing out here.
We’ll talk more…
Cheers,
Don Biener
Wow, small world, Don! Sailing the great lakes out of Wisconsin, huh? Probably some really good winds there I’m sure.
I use to sail SF Bay out of Coyote Yacht harbor in San Mateo with my Father on a 36 foot Balboa. As I’m sure you’re already aware sailing is a great experience, especially as we are always discussing energy here, the wind is free – no stopping to fill up with 40-60 gallons of fuel. Although it’s nice to have an inboard or outboard for getting in and out of the harbor, so I guess they use some fuel but not much. He brought his boat down the Delta once and I met him in Oakland, then we sailed on a Sunday back to San Mateo. The weather report was for gale force winds up to 60 mph. My Father said he had to go to work the next day and didn’t want to leave the boat there, so we took the challenge. As bad luck would have it the tide was going the opposite direction, out, and with the wind, big waves started building. The closer we got to San Mateo the shallower it got and the higher the waves. It reached a point where we were sailing on a reefed jib only, no main, and although it seemed like we were going fast it was partly an illusion because the tide was against us. Reports came in of other sailboats getting washed up on shore. I’m not sure if it was sailing at that point as much as it was surfing. The stern was raising up as the bow dipped down to follow a wave and we came close to diving under (which would have dug the bow into the bottom) so I had to split the difference and slightly head off wind (causing the jib to luff) as we descended the waves. My father tapped out, so I took it from just south of the Bay Bridge through the most harrowing part. We made it into dock, I jumped off to stop the bow from hitting the dock, then collapsed from exhaustion. It was that crazy.
Anyway, probably not a bad idea on your part to get out of CA. The drought is breaking from lots of El Nino rain, but who knows what the future will bring. I’m sure more droughts will occur and the fire danger will continue. The way things are going, being near the Great Lakes will at least afford the certainty of fresh water and lots of sailing. We are doing a project now for a church in WI. I want to drive up and see Green Bay when we go there in October.
Cheers to you matey, Stilgar
Dammit, Don, are you going for sainthood?
Consistently one of the two or three most worthwhile, valuable contributors here. Over and above the value of the content, i appreciate your integrity and commitment.- always trying to make a positive contribution.
Maybe our new motto should be: ‘Cultivate our Outer and Inner Garden’. (Apologies to Voltaire).
A pro-biotic breakfast diet for Fast Eddy perhaps?
LOL, wrong end…more like a pro-biotic enema.
MJ
That has placed an image of FE in my mind that I would rather were not there……
Dear Finite Worlders
This will be a correction to something I wrote here months ago. The discussion was about eating meat. I declined to comment, then had second thoughts because I did know something that the other person did not know, and I amended my response to point out the other information.
That information was the experiment by Stanley Hazen at the Cleveland Clinic who identified a gut microbe which turned red meat into TMAO, which causes heart disease. If you google Hazen, you will find a flood of recent articles talking about all sorts of connections between the gut microbes and disease, principally heart disease.
The point I want to make here is that I listened to a discussion between Walter Willett at Harvard and Mark Hyman, a well-known lifestyle doctor. They indicated that subsequently, Hazen fed his subjects red meat with olive oil. The olive oil suppressed the TMAO effect.
Separately, Willett talked about a study he made quite a number of years ago which found that saturated fat, coupled with dietary fiber, had no negative effects. Due to opposition from the heart health lobby, he couldn’t get the study published in the US. He published it in the British Medical Journal.
These two incidents show that focusing on the total diet (e.g., a Mediterranean diet) is probably more helpful than picking out some single component. I have no recommendation about red meat, pro or con…I am merely trying to correct any mis-representation from several months ago.
While I am at it, I will give you a couple more tidbits from the same webinar, but this time featuring Dr. David Perlmutter.
*Conversation with Craig Venter, who participated in the sequencing of the human genome. When asked if the genome project had accomplished his goals, he said ‘well, we did get the sequencing done, but it didn’t have any effect on disease’. Venter’s lab has now turned toward study of the microbiome.
*How a person interprets the world is influenced by their gut microbes. Some women were fed pro-biotics for a month, some were given placebos. Then the women were studied with fMRI. Shown a frightening picture, the women who had taken the pro-biotics were less upset than those who did not get the pro-biotics. (Doomers need to take pro-biotics?)
*Discussion of Leaky Gut and LPS (lipoppolysaccharide). LPS is generated by gut microbes. It is instrumental in causing Depression, Alzheimers, Autism, and Lou Gehrig’s Disease.
*In one gram of fecal matter (one fifth of a teaspoon), there is 100 terabytes of information. There is a Big Data effort to try to begin to understand it all.
*For the elderly among us. Alzheimers research has focused on trying to break up or dissolve the plaques in the brain. All these efforts have been miserable failures. The trend now is to see the plaques as a symptom rather than a cause. There is evidence that the microbiome is driving the process of creating inflammation in the brain, and the plaques are a result of the inflammation.
*Hyman formulated the question: ‘How Do We Grow A Good Inner Garden?’
Don Stewart
Thanks Don. Interesting info as usual.
I would add that more than the actual foods themselves, the way they are processed by your digestive apparatus is of utmost importance. People with weak or very weak digestive capacity develop all manner of health problems even when eating the healthiest of foods.
The components in food need to be broken down properly into all the elements that are then utilised by the body or excreted. When this process is compromised, imbalance occurs, and all the usual problems arise.
Sometimes your stomach can shut down all activity for various reasons. This is called Gastroparesis or paralysis of the stomach. There is no cure but eliminating heavy foods, fats, and fiber is a must.
I’m now on a liquid diet (as much as possible) after 20 years with gastroparesis. Others have to be fitted with a nasal feeding tube and the most severe cases are fed intravenously.
Before going on a light diet, the side effects of this illness were unbearable. Now, things are manageable. Nothing else changed but the composition of the food i.e. breaking the various foods down so that a weakened system can extract some nutrition while keeping things from piling up and stagnating. Fats and fiber slow everything down until you feel like your going to burst!
And yet 20 years of analytics show everything as normal. Mainstream doctors will not pick it up. They’ll send you home with some Abilify!
Probiotics is as easy as making your own fresh yoghurt, fermented veggies, etc. A goat comes in handy.
Nice find.
That graphic should be entitled: Civilization Throws the Towel In
Pingback: Is Non-OPEC Beginning Serious Decline? - Peak Oil BarrelPeak Oil Barrel
http://forum.socialmatter.net/discussion/96/peak-oil
the discussion continues, thanks for all the good info, i must admit i copy pasted some of it just because it was so good. Now he came with this reply:
”
I understand the fossil fuel inputs play a role in the price of just about everything. I was a true believer for a while, after all. What I’m saying is that there is only so much %-GDP (or “Piece of The Human Productivity Pie”) that is going to go into energy in all it’s forms, like gasoline and bowling balls and bags of potato chips.
There is always a counter-vailing force, motivation to extract more energy for cheaper and build and transport moar shit using less of it. The higher the price of WTI, the stronger the force. It seems very robust. So robust, that we probably haven’t spent LESS a Fraction of The Pie on energy since the industrial revolution, and haven’t spent LESS of it on foodstuffs in the history of mankind.
IOW, this all seems to be going in a very inexorable direction, directly the opposite of what Peak Oil predicts.”
—————————————————————————————————-
I replied with this:
well the problem is that most of the new oil fields are tar and shale oil, it is very expensive to extract this, so i fail to see how oil will be as cheap as it is right now for long. Over the decades oil has actually become more expensive not cheaper. also I fail to see how efficiency gains via better technology would fix this.
good discussion 🙂
”
Many of our large-scale applications of energy use heat engines to extract useful energy out of combustion or other source of heat. These include fossil-fuel and nuclear power plants operating at 30–40% efficiency, and automobiles operating at 15–25% efficiency. Heat engines therefore account for about two-thirds of the total energy use in the U.S.
The requirement that the entropy of a closed system may never decrease sets a hard limit on how much efficiency one might physically achieve in any heat engine. The maximum theoretical efficiency, in percent, is given by 100×(Th−Tc)/Th, where Th and Tc denote absolute temperatures (in Kelvin) of the hot part of the heat engine and the “cold” environment, respectively. Engineering limitations prevent realization of the theoretical maximum. But in any case, a heat engine operating between 1500 K (hot for a power plant) and room temperature could at most achieve 80% efficiency. So a factor of two improvement is probably impractical in this dominant domain.
Given that two-thirds of our energy resource is burned in heat engines, and that these cannot improve much more than a factor of two, more significant gains elsewhere are diminished in value. For instance, replacing the 10% of our energy budget spent on direct heat (e.g., in furnaces and hot water heaters) with heat pumps operating at their maximum theoretical efficiency effectively replaces a 10% expenditure with a 1% expenditure. A factor of ten sounds like a fantastic improvement, but the overall efficiency improvement in society is only 9%. Likewise with light bulb replacement: large gains in a small sector. We should still pursue these efficiency improvements with vigor, but we should not expect this gift to provide a form of unlimited growth.
On balance, the most we might expect to achieve is a factor of two net efficiency increase before theoretical limits and engineering realities clamp down. At the present 1% overall rate, this means we might expect to run out of gain this century. Some might quibble about whether the factor of two is too pessimistic, and might prefer a factor of 3 or even 4 efficiency gain. Such modifications may change the timescale of saturation, but not the ultimate result.
One route to coping with a fixed energy income is to invent new devices or techniques that accomplish the same tasks using less energy, rather than incrementally improve on the efficiency of current devices. This works marvelously in some areas (e.g., generational changes in computers, cell phones, shift to online banking/news).
But some things are hard to shave down substantially. Global transportation means pushing through air or water over vast distances that will not shrink. Cooking means heating meal-sized portions of food and water. Heating a home against the winter cold involves a certain amount of thermal energy for a fixed-size home. A hot shower requires a certain amount of energy to heat a sufficient volume of water. Can all of these things be done more efficiently with better aero/hydrodynamics or traveling more slowly; foods requiring less heat to cook; insulation and heat pumps in homes; and taking showers using less water? Absolutely. Can this go on forever to maintain growth? No. As long as these physically-bounded activities comprise a finite portion of our portfolio, no amount of gadget refinement will allow indefinite economic growth. If it did, eventually economic activity would be wholly dominated by us “servicing” each other, and not the physical “stuff.””
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/can-economic-growth-last/
even if we could do it the earth would be cooked:
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/
oh and btw it is not just oil:
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-looming-copper-supply-crunch/
——————————————————————–
was this a good reply? i find all of this very complicated, maybe i am making it more complicated than it has to be… what do you think?
another way of characterizing his beliefs are that it is just technological utopianism?
While you are linking to Tom Murphy in “Do The Math” , you should read this one, “Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist “( http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/ ) for amusement. It makes all of Gail’s points with humor.
thx, I linked to it before, but i will link it again. This stuff seems bullettproof.
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The collapse is corrective, I’m not afraid of it and neither should you be.
We are totally out of control, and it is a good thing the system is being pummeled by nature. Had to end sometime.
dolph, it might be somewhat uncomfortable for the billions who will not see 2020.
If a simple statistical analysis is done, the odds are certainly not in our favour for you or me to see 2020. Why be afraid? That wont help anything. But employing predictive analytics to run scenarios that will help guide future actions, that might.
A simple statistical analysis showing the odds of either Dolph or yourself seeing in 2020 being less than fifty percent sounds impossible to me. Please provide such an analysis if you can…
Predictive analytics reveals even to us armchair specialists here that major global and regional stakeholders are actively planning for some profound systemic changes, less energy and the end of frivolous consumption ~2020-2025. Most people can’t apply for ~100% hermit strategy, therefore most of us will be affected not only by deteriorating physical plane (shortages, fall of product/parts quality) but also the interplay of elevated social upheaval and counter measures of COGers trying to steer it and/or suppress it. We definitively loose some, that’s all what she wrote.
I watched Children of Men again recently and I couldn’t believe how accurately it portrays all the elements of what collapse promises to look like. Everything from the isolated hippy/activist (Michael Cane) that saw it all coming and lives out his final days in the woods getting high on weed to the ruthless gangs that will kill you for no particular reason. And then there’s the sweeping vistas of inner city decay, the tent cities, the shanty towns, with no electricity, no sanitation, no running water, toothless crazy women, scumbags that try to profit off the situation…
And then the war breaks out… the authorities on one side all suited up and the rag tag rebels on the other throwing molotov cocktails. No one really knows what they are fighting for but it seems like the right thing to do until the last bullet is fired.
This must be what life has been like in Syria these past years. And Iraq too. And all the other places that house the remaining stores of fossil fuel on this god forsaken planet. It won’t stop until Iran has been plundered. Russia too. But as we all know, the machine will seize up long before the last drop is squeezed from Mother Earth.
And no one, not even your COG gods, will be able to manage the god awful mess that BAU death brings.
When death is virtually guaranteed — what’s to fear?
Well, for me it would be the process, FE. The being dead part ought to be easy.
Gotta wonder when this company will just stop existing….
That said — as a bellwether company …. You gotta wonder how the global economy does not blow out — based on these numbers and the Baltic Dry activity must be very low across the board….
I struggle to believe that the economy is growing ….
Moments ago Caterpillar reported its latest monthly retail sales statistics and the numbers have never been worse.
Not only is the fourth, feeble and final dead CAT bounce in US sales officially over, with December US retail sales tumbling -10% Y/Y, after “only” a -5% decline in November and hugging the flatline for the past few months, but sales elsewhere around the globe were a complete debacle:
Asia/Pacific (mostly China) was down -21%, EAME dropping -12%, and Latin America (i.e. Brazil) continuing its free fall dropping by -36%, but global retail sales just posted a massive -16% drop in the past month, tied for the worst annual decline since the financial crisis.
More http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-27/manufacturing-depression-enters-uncharted-territory-caterpillar-retail-sales-have-ne
The Dow is now 15.926, it still got a helluva lot more to drop. If 2001-2 and 2008-9 can be taken as some sort of models how stocks behave, the time frames, the high and low points, rallying etc. etc. then 2016 should have its low point in September/ October, with Dow Industrial around 5.700.
After the September/ October 5.700 point mark, the “recovery” should start. But this time around its hard to see where such a recovery would begin. With what resources, energy, consumption, debt, products everybody wants, abundant low hanging fruits that produce massive amounts of profits. Nope, this time around, no recovery for us.
Caterpillar is not doing well at all. Dow for 37 months means the decline started near the end of 2012. By 2013, companies were complaining that they could not make enough money base considering the cost of new wells. 2012 is quite early in the timing of inadequate price increases, but free cash flow was already negative, based on this slide of Steve Kopits.
Fast Eddy and Others Who Are Interested
Eddy, you still seem concerned about irrigation. I don’t know anything about your climate, so this may or may not be relevant. This is from Albert Bates and describes how the Land Use Committee at The Farm in Tennessee approached the issues surrounding their evolution several years ago:
‘The goal of The Farm’s Land Use Committee is to avoid the mistakes of the past, such as planting heirloom tree species from earlier centuries while climate isotherms are migrating poleward 70 miles per decade. We’d like to provide as much comfort for our coming generations, and those of our brethren species, as might reasonably be salvaged. Thinking about putting more ponds, lakes, and aquifer-recharge zones into our 4000-acre landholding, we asked Australian Darren Doherty for advice.
“Don’t put in the dams until you’ve keylined the place,” he said. So in 2009, we invited Darren and a group of distinguished co-teachers to give the first carbon-farming course in North America. We brought in Kurt Gadzia and Joel Salatin to teach holistic management, Brad Lancaster to teach water capture, Eric Toensmeyer to teach agroforestry, and Elaine Ingham to teach soil microbiology. I chipped in a segment on biochar and terra preta soils and Darren himself demonstrated keyline plowing.
The keyline method was developed by Australian stockman P.A. Yeomans in the 1950s. By studying the lay of the land, Yeomans noticed that in the usual flow of things, gravity takes water downhill by the shortest route, carrying water, topsoil, and soluble minerals from the ridges and concentrating rich deposits in the valleys. What is really needed is the opposite—to distribute soil moisture from the wetter valleys or field indentations out towards the drier ridgelines, and to cover the largest possible area with migrating minerals when it rains.
Yeomans’ Keyline® Plow, a $55,000 piece of equipment made only in Australia, has a plow that resembles the secret “winged” keel shape that helped Australia II dethrone the USA in the America’s Cup sailing regatta of 1983. Operating like a hydrofoil, it has “terro”dynamic horizontal fins at the subsoil bottom of a vertical shaft. Three to five of these rigid shanks are mounted on a heavy steel frame and dragged along behind the tractor. A coulter disc precedes the shanks, slicing open the upper soil layer to minimize surface disturbance and reduce the energy required to pull the device. The angle of action at the shares’ leading edge is very slight—only eight percent compared to typically 25 percent in chisel plows and subsoilers.
During cultivation, the soil is gently raised and loosened without turning a furrow. Rain and air enter the soil and release the minerals that chelate and loosely attach themselves to clay particles and humic acid. The released minerals are not water-soluble and are readily available to roots. Immediate results are dramatic and magical. Water moves from valleys to ridges.
Every piece of land is unique and will be influenced by how water passes through it, irrespective of where the farm, cattle ranch, shopping mall, or four-lane highway gets put. By directing that water from valley to ridge, gravity and rain make the life of the farmer and rancher much easier. Keyline design combines cultivation, irrigation, and stock management techniques to greatly speed up the natural process of soil formation, and results of 400 to 600 tons of topsoil per acre each year are possible. Keylining can annually deepen topsoil four to six inches, and darken it a meter deep in less than a decade.’
Back to Me
Darren Doherty points out that dams are expensive, while key-line plowing is relatively cheap. The key-line will sink an awful lot of water into the soil, and if the soil is full of carbon (soil is darkening), then the water will be held in place in the soil. This is generally conceded to be your best bet against drought…unless you have a reliable source of piped in water. Since you don’t want to be dependent on piped in water, Doherty would probably advise you to do what he advised The Farm to do…do some key-line plowing.
Since Albert is a fan of biochar, The Farm also put some biochar at the bottom of the furrow. They may be on their way to making terra preta.
I don’t want to make accusations against your commercial organic farm style advisor, but thinking through, systematically, the problems and solutions is not something commercial organic farms usually do. The people that The Farm got involved are loosely in the ‘permaculture’ camp, although some of them don’t appreciate such a label.
The key line solution does not depend on continued contributions from industrial society in the future. The terra preta soils did just fine in the Amazon with zero input from civilization for 500 years.
Don Stewart
I stopped reading…… here….
‘Yeomans’ Keyline® Plow, a $55,000 piece of equipment made only in Australia, has a plow that resembles the secret “winged” keel shape that helped Australia II dethrone the USA in the America’s Cup sailing regatta of 1983.’
These are all ‘solutions’ that rely on BAU — BAU is ending.
At best people will have shovels and other such hand tools….
There is a reason that much of the land that is under cultivation today was not under cultivation pre oil ….. it’s because there was no water available….. only when massive irrigation schemes came into play — made possible by massive electric pumps — did formerly useless scraps of land come under cultivation….
Throw in the fact that 99.9% of people in OECD countries have not a clue how to grow food at all — and the small number who do would not have a clue what to do if the they turned the faucet — and water did not come out the tap….
Most people who grow food do not have heirloom seeds so they will not be able to save seeds… in fact most likely grown using seedlings from Wally’s World.
Then there is that issue that nobody wants to address — that one where the women and children show up at the gate starving and begging for food…… then the cousins and brothers and sisters and friends from high school — basically the whole world shows up at the gate because they heard that you were growing food…
THIS is definitely going to happen….. this is a best case scenario … some people will not be asking….
http://neutralbayanglican.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/beggingchildren.jpg
What will you do?
Sure, Fast Eddy…STP reafomg and kick up a chair and enjoy a fine of BAU glass of wine!
FE, you are a hopeless person, that $55k keyline plow-seeder is a professional grade machine/implement for larger farms and beating todays efficiencies on debt saturated global agri markets, not needed after BAU ends/transfroms.. People have been keylining with rusted piece of metal for “zero dollar” on smaller patches of land for decades.
Like I Said before…Fast Eddy will find ANY excuse not to….
Best to ignore this one…
You got that Don Stewart?
Don, BTW good information and hopefully others reading here were provided what they needed to implement an improvement to and their site.
When faced with irrefutable facts —- the common strategy of seasoned Koombayists appears to be to stick fingers into ears and scream ‘I cannot hear you’
http://www.chicgeekdesigns.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/2668975758_ff9a8944c7.jpg
Nice childhood picture of you, Eddy. Paste one with you having a smile.
Pulling it with what?
I can just imagine a million suburbanites ripping up the countryside with nothing but their trusty fruit knives!
Yup! I smell a loooot of grow yer own delusion around here.
I come from a long line – hundreds of years – of subsistence farmers that only replaced the cow carts and donkeys with BMWs in the last few decades!
Dirt roads – even the highways – 25W bulb or two for electricty, washing clothes in the local river, the neighbour still slaughters a screeching pig in the street with a long blade – the old fashioned way.
My generation was the first to grow up away from all that, but the “olds” wouldn’t let us forget about how close they were to starving on a regular basis. No hospital nearby, no access to basic medicines, people dropping like flies from all the usual diseases… minimal school time if any – too busy saddling up the twin cow cart in the middle of the night to go up the mountain to fetch wood, dirt, grass and then down to the sea for seaweed and rocks to build houses with.
I did these things as a kid – on holidays. And I’m only 46! It’s all still very fresh in our minds around here. You people have little to no real experience of what you are facing. You are clueless.
There is not one single person in this community that wishes to go back to the old ways. They hang their heads in shame when they tell of the things they had to do and the way they had to live. It wasn’t just hard work. It was survival on the edge every single day without fail.
Not one of these hardened survivors believe that living like that is possible today. In fact, they laugh at you at the mere mention of it. There are so many things you need to know, need to stay on top off, otherwise it all falls apart very quickly. And that’s when things are going well. There is no outside help. You’re on your own.
Good luck with your adventures. We have very recent memories of that cold, hard reality and it wasn’t pretty.
Depends on which bold adventure ahead you are grouped with Mr. Grimes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mzddAYYDZkk
Naturally, most will face an existence of the one you discribed.
Someone asked why so few will make it through the bottleneck, thank you for answering it.
I was born in the city but lived for a few years in my parents village as a young adult during the mid-80’s. Before tourism came to the area nearly half the population was engaged in back-breaking farm work from dawn to dusk and this was with the help of modern machinery. I can’t imagine what it was like 20 years before when electricity and tractors first arrived there. Things like vendetta and honour killings were still within living memory amongst the very conservative people of the region and only emigration or an early marriage to a rich stranger from town provided a way out of certain poverty.
Despite the existence of universal and compulsory education, almost all young people from the age of 10 had their schooling cut short to either help out in the fields or stay at home with the chores, including minding younger siblings. Their skins were like toughened shoe leather from the sun and their hands would bleed red raw from the agonising field labour. Their teeth were generally yellowed and crooked. There was one rural doctor for the whole of the 2200 people who inhabited the village and he would make his rounds but once a week. Infant and mortality rates, in general, were elevated in comparison to town, to say the least.
Since the mid-80’s with he advent of mass-tourism living standards improved for about 30 years as the economy changed from rural to services based. More young survived into adulthood and stayed in the village, married and the place expanded to over 3300 people, with the new generation never knowing real farm life. A fine medical clinic was opened in the 1990’s with a doctor available nearly around the clock. When I revisited 20 years later I noticed a distinct change in people’s attitudes and appearance. They were more acquisitive, more forbearing and nicer looking, with good complexions, straight white teeth, and delicate hands.
But with the GFC, economic depression has taken hold of the whole country and again the young remembering the stories of their parents and grandparents say they would rather emigrate than pick tomatoes in the scorching sun all day. More fields are coming back into rotation, as people do something to supplement for the dinner table as the service economy shrinks, but generally, life continues according to modern rhythms for now. Cars, the internet and hedonism have a stranglehold like just about anywhere else today.
Ominously a few months ago, although the medical clinic hasn’t yet shut down, the doctor has been cut back to just three days a week, with no house calls, due to funding.
Tremendous post.
And the thing is….
The people you reference learned those skills from their elders — they were experts in surviving — they were tough — hardened from a young age…
And STILL – they were on the edge….
I’ve read a few books written by settlers in Canada and the US — again very tough people — and frequently they were on the edge of starvation.
Not a single person on this site has any idea what living like these settlers was like. Every single hobby farmer (count myself in) is fully plugged into BAU…
We all use electricity and factory made tools and trucks and lawnmowers and chain saws and we all go to the doctor and the grocery store…
Not a single person has come even remotely close to taking the Fast Eddy Challenge.
So not a single person has the slightest clue how difficult — no not difficult – IMPOSSIBLE – the conditions are going to be like when the power goes off.
And nobody is going to try the Challenge because deep down you surely know — you will fail — and that will mean your final days will be spent dazed on Abilify watching Dancing with Stars re-runs because all hope will be lost.
No doubt some will think I am being harsh by blowing up the permaculture dream — oh well — go to sugarcoated.com otherwise known as peakprosperity.com if you want to remain in Delusistan….
“Not a single person has come even remotely close to taking the Fast Eddy Challenge.”
We cut several cords of wood by ax, but we bucked up the logs with chainsaws. The important lesson I learned is, post BAU, I cannot afford to let someone else work for food using my tools. Having someone reckless cutting wood, sure, he can split nearly twice as fast as me … at the cost of going through an ax handle per cord.
As long as it is possible to just buy new handles or whole new axes, not a big problem. I suspect this extends to many things. We spoke with an organic farmer in the neighbourhood who has WWOOFers come every year. Once, he sent a pair of them off to weed a garden, they picked out all the crop plants as well as the weeds.
If your friends and family come knocking, and are willing to work for food, they will require constant supervision, or all the tools will be broken and the crops lost.
You dipped your small toenail in the water….
Splitting wood that has been cut by a chain saw and hauled out of the forest with a vehicle is the easiest part of the process….
Today we have almost NO IDEA of what hard work used to be like. Imagine workers today digging the 2000 miles of canals and the railways by hand as done in the early 19th Century. Navvies, who were mostly Irish worked in 2 hour shifts and were well fed, 6000 to 12000 calories daily. All with pick and shovel, plus horse drawn drays. FE’s challenge would not amount to one then.
We would be in for a major shock if we had to go back to those days.
Matthew, you are right, but its not only the tools, its things like weed pulling too. If you send a newbie to a carrot/ beetroot field, at the end of the day, you´ll have field without any carrots or beetroots.
Loved your story Psile. I too remember the toughened skin like leather and the toothless old ladies doubled over from working the fields by hand and carrying heavy loads on their heads their entire life. It’s a whole other way of life…
‘FE, you are a hopeless person’
Mr World — I assume you mean I am a person who has no hope – if so then you are 100% correct.
There is no hope.
My only hope is that when the end comes — the suffering involved is minimal.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrQC67aPBU
Fast Eddy
Anyone who lacks the intelligence to distinguish between capital goods and consumption isn’t worth wasting time with. I mostly post to pass information to those with ears.
Don Stewart
My comments as to how farmers are responsible for our current predicament seems to have fallen on deaf ears….
My comments regarding how if there are survivors and they continue down the path that you are suggesting ….. we will quickly Easter Island the planet…..
Well that also is being ignored….
Do you care to address one or both of those?
When nobody steps up to the plate for the other team….. it definitely makes the victory feel hollow….
Batter up ….
https://cheapseatsplease.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/aroldis-chapman.jpg
“My comments regarding how if there are survivors and they continue down the path that you are suggesting ….. we will quickly Easter Island the planet…..”
They could adopt population control, not develop industrialization, and have just a few hundred million people living somewhere between the Bronze Age and the Renaissance.
Probably not, but maybe.
Only if the cult of the Hunter Gatherer has its way …. farming is a dead end
This is about as likely as a week without a Saturday. Where expansion is possible, all species, including humans, will do what they can to exploit the situation and have more offspring. However our descendants will have a hard time of it, given the planet has been completely done over by billions of upright monkeys since the 1800’s, with no sign of abatement. I seriously doubt there will be even a few million people left alive by the 23rd century. With every day, a struggle for survival about the last thing on people’s minds will be philosophising over the meaning of life.
“These are all ‘solutions’ that rely on BAU — BAU is ending.
At best people will have shovels and other such hand tools….”
I don’t understand how you are having such a hard time understanding what Don is saying. Use BAU now to make the major changes to your landscape, and then you will be better off post-BAU. Once your land is set up, it should be good indefinitely if properly managed.
Of course, buying a $55K tool to use once on a couple acres is a bit extreme – a rental or paying someone to bring one over and run through once would make a lot more sense.
Matthew Krajcik
I have been through it all before with Fast Eddy and the Yeoman’s Plow. One of Albert Bates neighbors invested in the plow with the idea of renting it out. Albert did not buy such an expensive and specialized implement.
Don Stewart
In the sci fi novel I would like to write but won’t…
There is a cult — called the Cult of Sustainability ….. It is an ancient cult that goes back to the year 1 AF (after farming) — the original members of the cult where forward thinking brilliant men who opposed farming….
They were the original guerrilla warriors —– they employed hit and run tactics burning crops and killing anyone who dared to start a farm….
There goal was to stop this travesty known as farming because they understood that farming resulted in more food and more people ….. which would eventually lead to overshoot and likely extinction…
They could also see that farmers were clearing the forests for pasture — they were also burning huge numbers of trees to make plows and other tools — they were destroying habitats of animals….
It was quite obvious that this thing called farming was going to end badly some day — so they engaged in extreme violence to try to stop this nightmare…
But the cult was no match for the farmers — the farmers had numbers behind them — they convinced the masses that they could LIVE THE GOOD LIFE if they only took to farming instead of hunting and gathering…..
The name I will use for the leader of the farmers is Scott Nearing — he and his wicked wife Helen make regular speeches urging the people to start farming and LIVE THE GOOD LIFE.
He needs generals to lead the charge against the cult — let’s name the top generals Toby Hemmingway and Joel Salatin….
Ultimately the cult is destroyed and is forced underground….. it continues in secret for many centuries…. waiting for an opportunity to act….
In the year 2016 all the prophesies of the cult come true…. farming has wiped out thousands of species…. it has ruined the soil …. it has caused a population explosion …. the air is filthy … the seas emptying of fish and filed with mercury ….. it has essentially resulting in the devastation of the planet…..
Then in a great crescendo of doom the entire system collapses into a pile of rubble…..
The moment the cult has been waiting for has arrived….. the masses having seen that living THE GOOD LIFE has resulted in epic suffering and death….
The cult’s leader — Fast Eddy — takes to the pulpit and urges people to return to the ways of the hunter gatherer … Fast Eddy tells them DO NOT attempt to revive BAU because that will only result in cutting down all the trees as you try to make plows and shovels and other implements required for farming…
Do NOT repeat your mistake!
Soon Fast Eddy gets traction with this message — he has acolytes…. he has many many very sexy groupies following him around …
But the farming movement remains strong — lead by Don….. and InAlaska and others…. they all call for the head of Fast Eddy….
However Fast Eddy is now a demagogue — he has a massive Cult of Personality —- the tide is turning …. millions flock to Fast Eddy’s side…. (including more hot groupie babes… which now includes all Victoria Secret models + Sports Illustrated Swimsuit models — 2016)
Don and his farmer mates are unable to get to Fast Eddy.
Fast issues an edict: anyone who farms shall be used as target practice for hunter gatherers in training…..
Don and his followers are soon captured and dispatched by pointy spears hurled at them by Fast Eddy’s followers.
And that is how the world is saved from the ravenous farmers who – without the great leadership and wisdom of Fast Eddy —- would have cut down every last tree on this beautiful planet — and extincted all life.
Death to Farmers (seriously)
The End.
Weeds don’t stop when BAU stops….
and rust never sleeps….
Better to burn out than die of starvation….
“Weeds don’t stop when BAU stops….”
The keyline plow is part of the plan to boost organic material in the soil to store more water, to combat drought and irrigation dependency.
I think having more moisture in the soil would probably make more weeds during dry season, not less.
Farming is one of the main reasons why we are where we are…..
Yet people continue to point to Scott Nearing as the solution….
Gimme a break.
Eddy, all you seem capable of doing with seemingly great monotony is criticize and through mud. What have you accomplished to help? NADA…except move from one part of the planet to the next.
Yes, Scott Nearing is PART of the solution…and he did not whine about chopping down trees with an axe. BTW, he still was using and preserving tools from his grandfather day handed down to him in his 90’s! You are on par with this ignorant, opinionated, egomaniac
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0JsiGQMMoe4
Scott and Helen Nearing were the opposite of you and actually found solutions to their predicament without resorting to Roundup.
How many of those large stones have you collected for your garden wall?
Too busy surfing the web, looking for more doom and gloom news
Yep good ol Scott and Helen certainly found solutions….
They used tools made in factories from metals that were mined using machinery and smelted using coal…
They had a pick up truck …so they used gasoline
They used medical facilities and roads …
They used concrete — yes indeed — I posted an interview last year where they discussed this…
When winter became too unbearable they got on a plane and flew to Florida
They had electricity and a toilet
They embraced BAU whenever possible.
They were as much a part of the problem as Paris Hilton – the only difference is one of scale.
Oh one other difference — Paris Hilton is not a hypocrite.
This fellow would look at Scott Nearing as you look at Paris Hilton …. a pampered pussy who would not last a day without his wonderful BAU accoutrements….
http://powerpointparadise.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/cavedwelling_huntergatherers.jpg
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrQC67aPBU
Somewhere in this rather longish discussion I posted about Chinas oil manouver in Ecuador, to which Ms.Tverberg mentioned about Ecuadors claim against Chevron. That rang a bell and according to the Ecologist Chevron lied in the trial and so their case has no merit anymore so there will be a retrial and possibility for hefty fines for spoiling the environment.
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2986043/chevrons_star_witness_in_95_billion_ecuador_oil_pollution_claim_admits_i_lied.html
I’m providing this link as a reminder about how the present nuclear world was presented at inception.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/01/26/geeks_guide_dounreay/
“It’s a far cry from May 1957 when the site was opened and 7,500 people queued up to walk the ground where history would be made, though perhaps if they knew what was going to become of that ground they’d have been less keen. Even now, nuclear power has an almost mystical thrall – extracting energy from the fundamental forces of nature by smashing atoms together until they shatter, even if our modern minds see fear there too.”
The poor beast… how can weI help you beast… please don’t die….
End of an era for Apple as it predicts first revenue decline in 13 years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/12123792/apple-predicts-first-revenue-fall-in-13-years.html
This is really bad news…. the last thing people give up these days … is their iphone…. they will eat dirt before they give up their iphones
Yeah, they might be able to survive with an Android one, though..
Cupertino, We Have A Problem: China’s JD.Com Just Cut Prices On Apple Products By 17%
JD.com cut prices of Apple products on the internet marketplace by as much as 17%, according to information on the JD website. Customers can also purchase Apple products in 12 monthly installments with no interest charges and no downpayment.” Among the discounts, iPad Air tablet with 16GB memory is priced at CNY 2,399 (USD 365), compared with CNY 2,888 on the Apple online store in China. The iPhone 6s Plus handset with 64GB memory is priced at CNY 6,288, compared with the official price of CNY 6,888.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-27/cupertino-we-have-problem-chinas-jdcom-just-cut-prices-apple-products-17
In light of the extreme difficulties involves with homesteading …. particularly the problem with hordes of the hungry wanting a share….
I am pondering an idea that we’ve discussed before on FW (and which I would have opted for if not for my wife’s propensity for sea sickness and general oppositions to the idea…)
The Miracle Barge….
The way it works is you buy a barge — something like this http://barges.apolloduck.com/feature.phtml?id=457133
Jam it full of tonnes of food and water — guns and ammo — solar gear,… fishing equipment…. etc…. and when the SHTF cast off and moor in a remote calm location … and just sit for say a year …
Wait for the dust to settle then head back and try your luck….
I reckon out of all the prepper options out there… this is the best idea.
https://cache.apolloduck.com/image_bin/457133_2.jpg
\\https://cache.apolloduck.com/image_bin/457133_1.jpg
That’s a good idea, but largely only for lakes and big ponds, which are renown for more or less calm waters even during high wind season, definitely do not think about salt water unless you have protected deep fjords (cons in coastal areas: waves, moon phases, etc.). I’ve looked into it a bit yrs ago, usually “living on barges” goes through popularity ups and downs, and on the down situation prices are good, currently we are starting slightly off the peak because of the recent tourist industry boom craziness, everybody wanted to have a boat for cashing in on the incoming Asian visitors either as floating bar/hotel, sightseeing tours etc. If there is going to be deep long depression phase first, the “time of cheap boat” might return for a while. Thanks for the reminder.
Usually most of the interior refitting from cargo boat is very DIY friendly, and you don’t have to worry about the hull unless it is really decrepit condition and you believe in few years fast depopulation anyways. The world’s most advanced place for this stuff is Netherlands, they even have concrete models with a submerged cellar as laundry/technical room-storage basement, imagine that! But for our purposes lets stick with refitting any older steel barge..
One upside of the ocean is that in some places there are still a lot of fish and shellfish available….
In the Marlborough Sounds one can easily harvest all sorts of shellfish from shallow waters…. it would also not be difficult to catch plenty of fish….
Yes, and No. Did you ever see “Dead Calm”?
Also don’t moor anywhere near Somalia or Indonesia.
Actually … this is what I had in mind
http://www.virtualoceania.net/newzealand/photos/coast/marlboroughsounds/
Plenty of options for under USD300,000 …
http://www.gulfgroup.co.nz/displayboat.php?list_code=9378
http://www.gulfgroup.co.nz/displayboat.php?list_code=7275
http://www.gulfgroup.co.nz/displayboat.php?list_code=8146
http://www.gulfgroup.co.nz/displayboat.php?list_code=8370
Sell the house — pick up a boat for say 250k — budget 50k for food and water — 20k for solar — 10k for guns and ammo — 5k for diesel — 15k misc….
350k and you’ve got your floating doomsday machine…. with cash left over for some gold and silver bars….
Tempting?
It’s certainly great sub strategy, shall we say almost mandatory for people with ~1M and above, but again people in each wealth category have quite different outlook as in looking up not down! Barge strategy is much better than second or especially third (vacation) home etc. But your suggestion going all in for people with meager sub ~ 0.3M wealth level is just very risky bet in terms of timing and budget-repairs, otherwise if someone always wanted to do it, then do it now the doomer bonus is plus.. People low on funds have better chances buying some be it small plot of land and basic gear far away, and attempt to duke it out on their own with family, perhaps banding with neighbors ..
The thing is…
There are a lot of people who could unload their homes and adopt this strategy …. most homes are worth at least 350k these days….
Live on the boat in the harbour (assuming you are near the ocean) and continue to work and go about your life….
Instead of property taxes you pay harbour fees… the boat just sits idle so no petrol or major maintenance costs….
Then — when the SHTF…. cast off…. and wait….
Master Flash, Fast Eddy, Don’t give up the homestead just yet.
Have a solution to the hungry hoards encroaching on your Twitch grass raised beds,
A homemade Laser Gun!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iVrJUbeuG44
You’ll scare the hell out of anyone with that and better yet devise a costume to appear as an alien….my suggestion
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aV2DLkDPwM8
See, no reason to move (again). There are solutions. Just apply yourself.
I won’t be shifting to a boat…. it does not solve the radiation problem….
Pirates?
At 3AM in deep sleep.
Exactly. And seafaring is REALLY difficult, I hear. Not for the inexperienced. Town planning for one’s community–solar panels and water capture for every house, gray water irrigation mandated. Arrange it so that people who know how to grow food have the ability to commandeer idle backyards, Serious Van Kent type food operations within ten mile radius. These things are almost impossibly hard, but easier than the high seas for the unwary.
I wasn’t think so much of seafaring…. rather bringing such a rig around to an area that is uninhabited and dropping anchor…. taking out the first of many books…. sitting back… and waiting for chaos on land to end…
The Marlborough Sounds – not far from where we are — would be the ideal location — there are literally hundreds of calm bays and inlets…. very few people — plenty of sea food (fish, scallops, mussels…) — I believe there are fresh water sources on some of the islands….
http://www.firstlighttravel.com/sites/default/files/modal/hero_image/beautiful-marlborough-sounds-new-zealand.jpg
Nothing is foolproof of course….. but if someone were explaining that they were putting a plan to do this in play — I’d be putting my money on them making it through over someone who is setting themselves up as sitting ducks….
I recall Jim Kunstler recounted in one of his books, possibly “The Long Emergency”, a plan he once had to own a small island in a big lake, with a cabin stocked with food, guns, solar-PV, batteries, etc. Fish in the lake, as well. Up until TSHTF, the place covers as a vacation cabin. Somewhat defensible from small groups of invaders, but see “The Mosquito Coast”, starring Harrison Ford. No guarantees.
Anyway, he gave up on that one for a small garden-chicken estate near an old industrial town in upstate New York, near rivers with fish in them. I think the new plan is to stick with the neighbors to keep out non-townie folk. But see Marlon Brando’s “The Wild One”, which is a mild version of “Hell’s Angeles come to visit” and take over the small town. Several versions of that happened in California in the 1960-70s even with BAU law & order. Hunter S. Thompson wrote a serious, nonfictional work about it. No guarantees anywhere.
I think the problem with the small island or the boat idea is that one does not know when collapse is going to hit…
Imagine if one had sold the house and car and cashed out on all assets in 2008 — moved to the island — or to the boat — with the intention of waiting it out….
You’d have missed out on 7 years of BAU…. but you’d have read a lot of books…
I suppose a compromise would be to remain in BAU — then tap into the cheap money that is available to finance the boat or island shack…. when the SHTF jump on board and motor away…
What to name the barge?
Hubris… or how about The Thomas Malthus….
” but see “The Mosquito Coast”, starring Harrison Ford. No guarantees.”
Pretty sure in Mosquito Coast he successfully burned them all alive and saved his family? Wasn’t the problem that his family thought he was nuts and ran off? Also, he kind of became nuts – well before having to roast bandits alive. In fact, the character may have started off with some psychological issues prior to relocating his family in the middle of the jungle.
I think unlikely if the right location is chosen… … but no petrol so quite difficult for anyone to get to you if you are remove enough….
There are very few people living in the sounds — and large swathes of this area have no road access…. many of the summer cottages are reachable only by boat….
http://bowtosternmarine.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/sounds-map.jpg
In fact… one might even pull the floating barge up to something like this and hang out forever 🙂
http://www.realestate.co.nz/2719278
FE,
RE: boat living – listen to the interview with Ray Jason – Sea Gypsy by RE on Doomsteaddiner.
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/podcasts/
Good source of practical advice for people living on boats.
Second, have a look at Dmitriy Orlov’s concept:
http://quidnon.blogspot.com/
As with many things in life, the fantasy is often better than the reality. And so it will likely be for most of us contemplating living aboard a boat. Sailing has to really be in your blood, as it seems to be for Ray Jason. I look at this living arrangement as a continuous emergency procedure, endless practice bleeding – small groups of boats moored offshore waiting. In the end it might actually pay off for Jason, but what will he have won compared with all that he has given up in preparing. Yes, I rather enjoy my BAU existence.
Don B
I agree. I don’t want this kind of life. It’s not for me.
I just provide source of information.
Thanks for posting the links. Was thinking you might be a fellow sailor – knowing about Quidnon and the Sea Gypsies. It didn’t take me long to give up the liveaboard notion (as much as I love sailing), even as an emergency measure.
Cheers
Don B
The thing is…
Preparing on land means thousands of people can easily find you — and take your food and tools….and farm….
You become an obvious target.
If you are offshore in a very remote location — nobody finds you — by the time you return to shore virtually everyone is dead….
There is likely to be good land to be had — you would more likely be able to forage food — if any animals are left alive you could eat those…
Given that almost nobody is aware of what is coming — the homestead idea is not a hedge at all — the neighbours and relatives who thought you were nuts — will be the first one’s at the gate…
Then the hordes will follow because when the shops close — the obvious option for hungry people would be to head to where the farms are….
“Preparing on land means thousands of people can easily find you — and take your food and tools….and farm….”
Did you consider moving to pitcairn? Worst case scenario, you’d have a couple dozen neighbours. Thousands of miles from any other people.
The thought of moving to an island with next to no people crossed my mind….
But then I concluded that due to the 4000 spent fuel ponds scattered around the world that will not be maintained post BAU….. the odds of this being an extinction event were quite high…
So rather than move to the middle of nowhere and live the final years with deviants who entertain themselves by trading daughters back and forth — and being completely bored out of my mind to no purpose…. (and I would be remiss not to add that Mrs. Eddy would not be on for that either…)
We decided to move somewhere that offered a slight chance of survival if the ponds are not an extinction event…. that was a good place to wait for the end of days….
Hobby farming…. mountain biking… skiing …. drinking wine….
And waiting….
…We decided to move somewhere that offered a slight chance of survival if the ponds are not an extinction event…. that was a good place to wait for the end of days….
Hobby farming…. mountain biking… skiing …. drinking wine….
And waiting
So, Fast Eddy and the Mrs. thought going ‘Down Under” was something like an extended vacation ….hobby farming! Hmmm, no wonder they are crying the blues and ready to pack on in and move on. White cheeks finally doing some real work for a change.
If they read ANY Permaculture introductory book in design, it ( especially Bill Mollison)
regarding establishing a design plan, the vast amount of effort is in the initial set up!
See Don Stewart, like I warned you….just a couple of wanna be Prima Donnas dreaming of “Living the Goof Life”.
I am still waiting on you to take the Fast Eddy Challenge.
In all seriousness… you really should do this …. to see how much of a man you are — since you talk big….
Another bonus is that this gives you a dry run in advance of the collapse of BAU…. over the course of the Challenge you can make a to do list of things that you had not thought of but that you should take care of while BAU is still providing ….
For instance — I tried chopping and splitting a tree — goddamn that is hard work! So what I did was I ordered in 3 big truckloads of dry wood and put it in storage…. I also cut down 12 massive gum trees with a BAU chain saw and will use a BAU log splitter shortly to turn them into another massive pile of firewood.
I can easily go 5 years without lifting an axe again!!!
If I had not taken the Fast Eddy Challenge then I would not have thought to do this….
You really are doing yourself a huge disservice by rejecting the Fast Eddy Challenge.
Shall I post full details again?
I recommend you start with the first task – cutting and splitting a tree.
Hey, Fast Eddy I found you a new location to move to and a neighbor to boot.
So FUNNY!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=umS3XM3xAPk
If I told anyone, they would think I was making it all up.
Thanks, Fast Eddy, you are a piece of work
Previous thread,
“because I know that post BAU life is guaranteed to be hell on earth.”
Likely. Which to me means looking for the means to keep BAU going for a long time.
“I also put my shoulder out 6 months ago and the physio therapy is not completely healing it — had an MRI and its slightly torn with a touch of arthritis… old sports injuries back to haunt…”
My wife had bone on bone in both knees. Three and a half years ago she went to the Cayman Islands where Regenexx has a clinic. They did a bone marrow tap and grew out a clone of stem cells which they matured to one step from the cells that lay down cartilage. We went back several months later and they injected the cells into the space. It worked great. 3.5 years later and she walks miles a day with no pain. I had the same company fix up my back, and while the results were not quite as impressive, I am in far less pain than I had.
Knees seem to be best, shoulders next and hip joints third, but all of them have a very high rate of long term success.
If we can figure out how to do it, there is a lot to be said for BAU.
It depends on your overall physical condition, age etc. but for very likely midterm early-doom (onset of firs phase in ~20yrs) I’d strongly suggest taking NOW total knee replacement and with quality parts and clinic at that, then you are set..
I admire your tenacity hkeithhenson. There’s always someone who tries to patch the gaping hole in the Titanic as she splits in two and the passengers slide off the deck into the icy Atlantic.
But fixing BAU or breathing some extra life into its emaciated body will require a miracle that patches all the symptoms that are bringing it down.
Even if our energy issues were blessed with a reprieve, you’d still need to solve the economic problems, the resources depletion, mounting tensions in the world caused by the need for further growth, which in turn causes more of the same problems, and so on.
Extremely high tech solutions to the problems you mentioned exist at the very tip of the pyramid that we’ve contructed on the basis of fossil fuels. And that pyramid is imploding under its own weight. The high tech floating on the top is like the well to do people on the top deck of the Titanic wearing fine clothes and sipping the best champagne. You’re in the engine room thinking of fixes that could keep the boat afloat for a while longer…
At some point, you have to admit that the old girl is sinking and there’s nothing you can do about it.
Yeah. and Stewart Brand, (Mister Whole Earth Catalog) has a nice restored tug boat. Just a coincidence I’m sure,
I think Chris Martenson is selling those on his site…. along with access to his end of the world prep courses….
Reinhold Niebuhr labeled this capacity to defy the forces of repression “a sublime madness in the soul.” Niebuhr wrote that “nothing but madness will do battle with malignant power and ‘spiritual wickedness in high places.’ ” This sublime madness, as Niebuhr understood, is dangerous, but it is vital. Without it, “truth is obscured.” And Niebuhr also knew that traditional liberalism was a useless force in moments of extremity. Liberalism, Niebuhr said, “lacks the spirit of enthusiasm, not to say fanaticism, which is so necessary to move the world out of its beaten tracks. It is too intellectual and too little emotional to be an efficient force in history.”
Thanks for you depiction of the oil supply situation Gail. Being an Australian, a oil importing country, it’s hard to get the lowdown on what’s actually going on. Iloo forward to reading more of your articles and I’ll definitely be recommending your blog to my colleagues.
John Bentley
That should be I look, not loo!!
You don’t ever read whilst on the loo?
“You don’t ever read whilst on the loo?”
If you have enough time to read all the way through one of Gail’s articles, you probably need more water and/or fibre in your diet. Maybe exercise, too.
Thanks!
Dear Ms. Tvergerg and Stilgar Wilcox;
It looks like someone is out to disrupt the poor helpless utilities. 🙂 I wish them all the best.
http://www.npr.org/2016/01/26/464323475/san-diego-mulls-whether-to-let-city-not-utility-buy-alternative-energy
Disruption is Progress,
Pintada
“It looks like someone is out to disrupt the poor helpless utilities. 🙂 I wish them all the best.”
Going to disrupt the utility, the city, and the end users all right into bankruptcy I bet.
Interesting article and goal of San Diego, pintada. Makes sense what they’re trying to do there – I mean all these half measures of some houses and businesses having solar while others do not never gets the job done of making the full transition. It’s also very difficult with a utility company that has to keep promising shareholders greater revenue with many going off grid. Breaking away from the utility company at some point is the best strategy. 100% renewables – should be interesting to follow to see how it plays out. San Diego is perfect because it’s sunny most days of the year. It’s right over the border from Mexico.
“We don’t necessarily have to go out into open space miles away and ship energy into San Diego. We can build it right here and use it right here, and that’s where we want the future to be,” says environmentalist Nicole Capretz.
And, she says, community choice is the only way to go 100 percent renewable. “If we do break away from our utility, then we can install the solar locally in our parking lots and our rooftops,” she says.
Still need 100% backup for those 4 rainy days. That’s going to cost you to have them sit idle and ready to go for 361 days of the year…
“Still need 100% backup for those 4 rainy days.”
Unless San Diego decides to be the bold testers of supply-based renewable energy, instead of a demand-based grid system. That is to say, they only use the electricity when it is available, with no batteries and no backup power.
That’s a great idea, as long as people are prepared to ditch the Netflix when the clouds come in… I guess hospitals would need to beef up some generators, as would the gas stations that use electricity to pump gas, and the grocery stores that have coolers and freezers. As would everybody that have coolers and freezers.
The battery biz will be booming until people realize that a pain it is to have batteries. And how many you need, what they cost to buy and what they cost to replace. And then they realize that the old system was cheaper.
Don’t worry! Batteries not required! So says Scientific American…
Switch to Clean Energy Can Be Fast and Cheap
Strategically placing solar and wind farms across the U.S. could compensate for power lulls during cloudy or calm days
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/switch-to-clean-energy-can-be-fast-and-cheap/
There’s only one minor thing…
“The authors envision an HVDC network across the United States akin to the interstate highway system, shunting power from where it’s produced to where it’s needed in a national electricity market.”
Which would require the entire replacement of current Grid infrastucture.
And it doesn’t solve the problem of liquid fuel requirements for all existing transportation needs.
Oh well, at least some people are keeping themselves busy at the happy thoughts factory!
It is not clear we have the materials to do it either. Copper and other metals are likely a problem, not to mention long-term maintenance. http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-looming-copper-supply-crunch/
And….
A partial list of products made from Petroleum (144 of 6000 items)
One 42-gallon barrel of oil creates 19.4 gallons of gasoline. The rest (over half) is used to make things like:
http://www.ranken-energy.com/products%20from%20petroleum.htm
On the “extreme” blogs that I’ve been frequenting, Solar (and other “renewables” are condemned as pipe dreams. But the more I get down in the trenches within my own little community the less I’m convinced of that argument. That argument is usually looking at the macro level of the current economic system. But although you have to work like the dickens and try to awaken many sleepers, it seems to make sense to distribute solar (etc,) to everybody in the community. If everybody has the basics of subsistence, they don’t have to come bothering me when SHTF. The money, roads, supplies are all there now (and the fact that money is dwindling is actually a spur toward rational behavior!), and they will last 30 years or so…way longer than anything remotely like the present world order will. And what is done in one small village is bound to affect the broader county. I’ve been in the trenches and see how it works. The resistance to rationality is gradually eroded as it hits the abundant contradictions within that irrational way of thinking… Commonsense behavior does in fact help determine the future, whatever it turns out to be.
“But although you have to work like the dickens and try to awaken many sleepers, it seems to make sense to distribute solar (etc,) to everybody in the community. If everybody has the basics of subsistence, they don’t have to come bothering me when SHTF.”
Right, Artleads. We live in an area that got hit with the Valley Fire and the power was out for 12 days, so we couldn’t live here, or at least we weren’t set up to do so. Once power was restored all the people came back. The same can be said for when SHTF in a post peak oil collapse, should that happen. Some electrical power will be worlds better than none. If people have some electrical and can grow food locally, that becomes the basis for managing some kind of transition to a lower std. of living instead of leaving or dying.
“On the “extreme” blogs that I’ve been frequenting, Solar (and other “renewables” are condemned as pipe dreams. But the more I get down in the trenches within my own little community the less I’m convinced of that argument.”
I agree. As they say, make hay while the Sun shines. While we have the infrastructure and power to build out renewables, we might as well. The alternative is to simply say when the oil age ends we end. That’s giving up. While we have breath in our lungs we should deploy as much renewables as possible and if the oil age does last another 10-20 years, we will probably realize at some point we are past the worst of what would have occurred without having done so and made a transition to getting energy locally. Once we have enough energy from renewables we an use it to make more renewables – then we are moving past FF.
I’m not suggesting the energy base will be there to run a world as complex as we are now in, but it will be so much better than no energy.
Hi Stilgar,
Just a quick aside if I may. I lived in Middletown for 20 years, ’87 – ’07. Am curious about what will be done with the burned out forests. Will that area be cleared or logged over time? All very sad. It will be many years, if ever, before the natural beauty is restored.
Be well,
Don B
Sometimes forest fires are part of the natural cycle. That is the way it is supposed to work. I don’t know about Middletown.
Just got back to this part of the message board, so sorry about the reply delay, Don B. We moved here in 97 and live in Hidden Valley Lake. The fire started up on Cobb Mountain and the prevailing winds blew it down the hill towards Middletown, but part of the fire split off and went through part of Hidden Valley Lake (some houses burned) and then through the Ranchos (a lot of which burned). 1950 structures were lost. It is the 3rd worst fire in California human recorded history. Approx. 1 billion in damage. We thought our house was lost because of Calfire thermal maps showed our house within the thermal hot zone, but fortunately it was saved. We overlook the lake – very nice views of the lake and towards Cobb. So on the Saturday it started we saw it coming down the hills towards us.
Anyway, to answer your question about the trees, they are fine, at least the one’s that were not cut down. Some County administrator hired a company to clear trees that were a hazard but they got paid by the tree, so they went berserk cutting anything and everything they could cut next to hwy 175, from Middletown up to Cobb. Really a shame so many got cut, because all that had burned on most was the bark. It was the high chaparel that caused the fire to spread so fast. We’ve had a drought up here for many years so all the brush was dry and much of it dead. With high winds the fire spread so fast it was too fast except to save the center of towns, Middletown and Cobb. 37 acres a minute at it’s fastest spread. Harbin hot Springs was lost and won’t be rebuilt. Many of the other springs resorts were lost as well.
as i see it, the problem is that we can’t unlearn knowledge,
prior to the industrial revolution, the best scientific minds stated that if man travelled faster than the speed of a horse, suffocation from air shortage would result.
the same minds stated that powered flight was mathematically impossible.
the same applies to a million other aspects of modern living.
Because of this, as we slip into a time when we do not have the means to live as we once did–the voices of denial will be raised again and again.
It’s happening right now: Trump screams that he will make America great again, without any real knowledge of how it might be done, unaware that the means to do that are slipping from the nation’s grasp.
And the masses believe him, for no better reason than they refuse to accept the alternative. If it wasn’t Trump—it would be somebody else.
We know that a few years ago, everything seemed to be better than now, houses were cheaper, wages seemed to go further. Now everything and everyone lacks that certainty, We know the future is unsustainable—so when Trump gets up and says we can have infinite prosperity again—he gets everybody’s vote.
Should Trump get the POTUS job, then in four years, when the economy has collapsed terminally, the country will be open for violent revolution. The Oregon standoff might seem trivial, but a spark like that could easily set if off.
We are all denialists one way or another, nobody wants to believe that the party’s over.
We have the universal knowledge of what can be accomplished, why should it not be always so?
I love all those quotes of prominent scientists that were 100% sure that “it couldn’t be done” or that it would never be possible.
“The world will only ever need four computers”
“It’s impossible for metal ships to float”
“What are these invisible germs you speak of?”
Of course, all of these achievements and breakthroughs happened on the way up, every single one, paving the way for the next.
It still makes me wonder if we’re jumping the gun a little with predictions of total collapse. There may be something we’re missing. Something that….
[shakes head…] Ooops… had to catch myself there. Nearly in La La Land again. Have to keep reminding myself that frothy tech solutions are teetering precariously atop a huge mountain of… nothing. Yikes!
Nobody wants to believe that the party’s over.
When you’re a kid spending a day at DisneyLand, all popcorn, candyfloss, and rides, you are never prepared for that moment when your Mom says… it’s time to go home.
I guess I’m still a lot like that kid. “Can’t we go on just one more ride?”
Yes Rick. There just might be something we’re missing. 🙂 And intuition and imagine just may be the tools needed for discovering it.
The fundamental question about solar energy is in respect to the right of an individual to make decisions about their own life vs the interests of an entrepreneur who wants guarantees prior to building electricity generation and distribution.
In regard to that question, it may be that the major contribution of renewable solar energy is to allow the average person to gain an insight into how that part of the world works.
Just don’t bother connecting the solar panels to the grid, because it won’t last 30 years. If you want solar panels, connect them up to a few devices at your own home–hopefully ones that can run intermittently.
And there’s the conundrum. State and Fed law (perhaps) mandate subsides/credits to be given to people who feed the grid their PV solar excess energy. That seems to make it cheaper to hook your solar to the grid. To rewire the PV system to be off grid is VERY expensive. Average people can’t afford to do it.
So there has to be some sort of fund raising program to convert PV back from the grid to off grid. And there is the fear by many that solar panels they can afford won’t sufficiently supply their power needs. This could partly be a fear based on insufficient information and lacking logistical support. Some sort of funding mechanism to provide that information and those supports seems possible. Meanwhile, the big utilities drag their feet and cause obstruction. So the move to provide energy information and logistical support has to be subversive, small scale and relatively non threatening… It’s not easy to do.
Maybe the big utilities could find some advantage in supporting this move, but I don’t know how or whether they can.
It’s not easy to do. And therefore will not even be considered by the vast majority within the time frame they have.
For me, solutions always had to be on the macro scale otherwise not worthy of much attention. What a few individuals can do on their own patch is great for as long as it lasts, but when all hell is breaking out all around those individuals it’ll be hard to see how they don’t get dragged into the overall mess.
The macro solutions require huge investment strategies. They are the only way that a significant number of humans could be impacted positively in the coming years. If the probability of these strategies coming to fruition is near zero then quite frankly I care not for the individual route and neither do the billions of unfortunates that had no clue about the tsunami coming their way. Neither govts nor individuals that have other plans will be able to contain the chaos that ensues.
Good luck. You’re going to need it.
Rick,
I hear you. I think very strategically too. But to work on the macro level, you must work on the individual as well. It’s a whole set of concentric circles we’re talking about, and they move inward and outward simultaneously.
There has to be organization at all levels. According to Tom Campbell, it’s the lack of organization that grows entropy.So, the nearest thing that can be organizes–a block or a village–is one place to begin. In my case, it’s the village. SIMULTANEOUSLY working toward the bigger job of organizing the county. In both cases, there is organization already, but not remotely congruent with the tsunami to come. One works with what one has, works through it contradictions, to try and improve it. An organized county can’t help but influence its neighboring counties in an escalating pattern of coherent spread across the largest relevant geographic extent.
That’s the theory anyway. 🙂
States are trying to encourage the use of solar, even though it is not particularly helpful to the electric grid–certainly not worth the subsidized cost.
If you are going to get long term benefit of the solar PV, it needs to be separate from the grid. And the whole system needs to be set up, including spare backup parts. I know for example that I need more than one sump pump in my basement. These do not have a long life expectancy–10 years or less. Someone has said that they need a different kind of pump than most, to begin with, if they run off solar PV. So even getting that piece going, for very long, is likely to be tricky.
A standard pump will absolutely not work with a direct connection to solar panels…. (although you might be able to connect one to a battery pack… not sure on that… but if you don’t need to pump at night or much in the winter so why involve batteries…)
Presumably, San Diego will learn the lesson of others that have gone down this path, assuming they are trying to have 24/7 electricity.
Yes, it should be interesting to follow this story to see how it unveils and if they really are able to achieve 100% renewables.
One way I have seen local entities go 100% renewable is they buy electric from the utility but they specify that they are buying the RE energy the utility takes in even paying a price premium. That is they are buying electric at night produced by the coal fired plant but they say it is RE because they “bought” the RE energy and the accounting books. Fact and fiction. I expect the politicians of SD will do the same.
in the accounting books
I couldn’t believe my eyes. There is a new “invention” to melt snow using jet fuel:
http://news.yahoo.com/snow-dragon-washington-dc-blizzard-jonas-153222601.html
Have we gone just absolutely insane. We are too impatient to let the snow melt so lets shovel it into this fire. I have seen it all now.
A great example of dissipative energy. One moment it’s here, the next it’s gone.
Using jet fuel to melt snow is absolutely insane. The ideal way to melt snow is to use all of that hot, spent radioactive fuel that everyone is bitching about. Kill two birds with one stone, that’s what I say. Let’s see which presidential candidates back this idea.
Maybe they are doing this to try to relieve the glut of oil and push the prices up so the industry doesn’t collapse (sarc!!!)
Gail your right but what satisfaction is it? Man can’t solve it. I think you know that. Screaming into our pillows won’t solve it. But there is a solution.
Your Friend.
JT
Look forward to your thermodynamics article Gail!
A well-placed bullet?
Not trying to speak for Gail here, but it is some satisfaction to know the truth of any given situation, no matter how dire. I think Gail has done a courageous job with extreme patience toward critics. No one knows for sure what will happen or exactly when, but Gail’s work is steadily glaring into the abyss to see what lies ahead. Many kudos to her for this blog and her keen insights. I read here frequently and with great intensity.
I appreciate your message of thanks!
http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/ask/2013/spentfuel.html#.VqfTDlko_IV
Union of Concerned Scientists
How Vulnerable are the Pools that Store Spent Nuclear Fuel at U.S. Reactors?
From the article… which mostly focusses on vulnerability to terrorist attack…
“In the United States, because there is no permanent storage site for the spent fuel from the nation’s nuclear power plants, spent fuel has been kept at the reactor sites, with the vast majority of it stored in spent fuel pools.”
“One major problem is that today’s U.S. nuclear operators routinely store spent fuel in pools at a much higher density than they were designed to hold. That increases the risk in two ways. First, it increases the chance that the spent fuel will overheat, burn, and release radiation into the environment if cooling is lost due to a terrorist attack or accident.”
“The most effective way to lower these risks is simply to reduce the density of fuel in the pools by transferring it out of the pools and into dry casks. Dry casks are by far the safest and most secure way to store spent nuclear fuel at the reactors while it is waiting to be moved offsite to interim or permanent storage.”
“Because spent nuclear fuel is cool enough to transfer to dry casks after five years, more than 80 percent of spent fuel that is currently in cooling pools is now eligible for dry cask storage.”
————–
What we’re concerned with here is not so much terrorist attacks or random accidents but the widespread abandonment of nuclear facility maintenance due to collapse.
So I can see at least two problems that may arise thereby excacerbating the above already worrisome conditions.
One is the production of sufficient dry casks for the task of securing the global supply of nuclear spent fuel. This would be perfectly feasible under BAU conditions and following severe legislation to speed up the process.
But that leads to the second already existing issue… and that is that nuclear facilities are already guilty of cutting costs wherever possible – hence the accumulation of tightly packed spent fuel on site at the power stations. One of the reasons that nuclear power has stalled somewhat over the years is the excessive added cost of safety measures.
So, it looks as if getting this done would require a global mandate to cask as much spent fuel as possible BEFORE BAU breaks down… because continued production and transportation of the complex casks would be required throughout the whole process.
And that would still leave the fuel that has not reached the five year minimum limit to maintain in the ponds…
Again, this is all perfectly doable while BAU and sufficient awareness of our predicament exists.
If the guys at Union of Concerned Scientists are worried about terror attacks on one plant and not the end of BAU then I feel that priorities are not what they should be…
NRC bought and paid for
“I feel that priorities are not what they should be…”
Sure your not British?
I’ll spare you the gory details. I would say that culturally – whatever that means – I am most definitely… English.
I would say European but that little love affair appears to be coming to its inevitable end…
Dear Fast Eddie;
From the Union of Concerned Scientists, “Dry casks are by far the safest and most secure way to store spent nuclear fuel at the reactors while it is waiting to be moved offsite to interim or permanent storage. Because spent nuclear fuel is cool enough to transfer to dry casks after five years, more than 80 percent of spent fuel that is currently in cooling pools is now eligible for dry cask storage.”
Since this spent fuel can be stored in dry casks, how is it that it can explode and kill billions if it gets dry after BAU? It can’t.
If I lived next door to a nuclear generating station, I would be worried. Since i (and 99% of the rest of humanity) am at least 10 miles away, it is a non-issue for the end of BAU.
Sincerely,
Pintada
“Since this spent fuel can be stored in dry casks, how is it that it can explode and kill billions if it gets dry after BAU? It can’t.”
Wow. That is a pretty amazing conclusion.
“If I lived next door to a nuclear generating station, I would be worried. Since i (and 99% of the rest of humanity) am at least 10 miles away, it is a non-issue for the end of BAU.”
Oh good. You hear that everyone? Nothing to worry about. That is a huge relief. I am so glad a random, anonymous person citing absolutely zero facts or sources was able to take this huge burden off my shoulders.
.. Yes dry casking would the obvious logical thing to do , especially after Fukushima. Yet not a single rod has been dry casked. All of the spent fuel remains in concrete pools of water most several stories above ground just like Fukushima. stored on sight next to the reactor. . Dry casking with appropriate materials is expensive. The Nuclear industry doesnt want to do it and they own the NRC. The concrete pools were never engineered for long term storage. All assumptions were there would be centralized waste depositories. That has never been created so the rods just stack up. If the reactor melts or blows up like fukushima it creates problems for efforts to keep the rods covered. Water is necessary to prevent combustion. As long as the rods have the correct spacing and are covered with water the hazard they pose is minimal. There are different opinions about how long they pose a hazard. If they are fresh out of the reactor they will burn and deposit their material into the air if they are not contained in water. Perhaps if we keep them covered for ten years we will be out of the woods. If the pools dont leak it is possible that evaporation could be compensated for and the rods covered for ten years post collapse. Then they would just pose a health threat to the immediate area not a large area. The most likely scenario in my opinion is post collapse the majority become exposed to atmosphere within the structures that house the pools post collapse. Whether that occurs within the time frame where they will burn is unknown. This is a very large amount of material.
Expense is not the issue – not when central banks are pumping out trillions of dollars for far less worth causes…
Again:
As the pools near capacity, utilities move some of the older spent fuel into “dry cask” storage. Fuel is typically cooled at least 5 years in the pool before transfer to cask. NRC has authorized transfer as early as 3 years; the industry norm is about 10 years.
http://www.nrc.gov/waste/spent-fuel-storage/faqs.html
Dear Fast Eddie;
I read many of the questions and answers that the NRC provided. I assumed that it would make me very nervous about spent fuel since it was posted by you and others at least 5 times. I’m sorry, but I just don’t get how billions will die.
I get these facts, I don’t get why anyone would worry if they live 100 miles away:
The spent fuel is radioactive.
Under the correct circumstances, it can go critical and if it does, the immediate area around the pool will become quite dangerous.
If the pool is near a body of water, that body of water will become contaminated by some amount.
I live at least 100 miles from the nearest reactor. What are my odds of dying from radiation poisoning when that spent fuel pool goes dry? My guess: 1:1,000,000.
Are you saying that millions will die 20 or 30 years later from some radiation caused cancer? If so, who would care in a post BAU world where starvation, and violence would be very real daily threats?
I think much of your concern comes from the myth that a measurable amount of radiation will instantly kill you. That is simply not the case. Much of the hysteria surrounding radiation is caused by the fact that modern technology allows the measurement of radioisotopes down to fantastically low concentrations. Concentrations that simply do not matter in the greater scheme of things.
Finally:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2011/04/pictures/110426-chernobyl-25th-anniversary-wildlife/
This is at Chernobyl where people have been excluded from a 1000 square mile area. A circle that encompasses 1000 square miles has a radius of 17.8 miles. So, if I am upwind of a wayward spent fuel pool I might be safe within 10 miles of the fire. If I am 100 miles away, I have nothing to worry about – likely would not even know about it.
With all a doomer has to worry about, spent fuel pools seem irrelevant. Of course, I would never live within 100 miles of a reactor again. Them things is dangerous. 🙂
Sincerely,
Pintada
I guess I have to post this list again …. this is NOT Chernobyl… a single pond is many many many times bigger than Chernobyl….
Spent fuel ponds are also not protected the way that nuclear reactors are…. you cannot entomb them like Chernobyl — in fact as we are seeing with Fukushima — it is not even possible to entomb reactors…
Let’s go one by one:
Containing radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago, more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together need to be removed from a building that is vulnerable to collapse, should another large earthquake hit the area.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
Note: this the potential impact of a SINGLE pond. There are 4000 of them around the world.
4000 x 14,000 = 56,000,000 Hiroshima bombs…
Getting a bit uncomfortable yet?
Once the fuel is uncovered, it could become hot enough to cause the metal cladding encasing the uranium fuel to rupture and catch fire, which in turn could further heat up the fuel until it suffers damage. Such an event could release large amounts of radioactive substances, such as cesium-137, into the environment.
This would start in more recently discharged spent fuel, which is hotter than fuel that has been in the pool for a longer time.
A typical spent fuel pool in the United States holds several hundred tons of fuel, so if a fire were to propagate from the hotter to the colder fuel a radioactive release could be very large.
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/making-nuclear-power-safer/handling-nuclear-waste/safer-storage-of-spent-fuel.html#.VUp3n5Om2J8
“This is at Chernobyl where people have been excluded from a 1000 square mile area. A circle that encompasses 1000 square miles has a radius of 17.8 miles. So, if I am upwind of a wayward spent fuel pool I might be safe within 10 miles of the fire. If I am 100 miles away, I have nothing to worry about – likely would not even know about it.”
There are about 500 active nuclear reactors – the size and scale that produce electricity to the grid. For now, we will ignore research and test reactors, as well as all the military nuclear powered ships.
So, worst case scenario, that is 500 Chernobyls. The reactors must be actively cooled – if the grid stops and the generators fail or run out of diesel, you get Fukushima.
Next, you have the spent fuel ponds. The reactors have ~100 tonnes of fuel in them. There are about 70,000 tonnes of spent fuel in the spent fuel ponds of the world – so basically, slightly more than in the reactors. Let us say 1000 Chernobyls is worst case scenario. Let’s also say that outside the exclusion zones, there is zero adverse health effects.
So, only 1 million square miles of exclusion zones. Much of that is near coastal areas and farmland. Worst case of 100 percent failure, along with best case as far as minimum area affected per disaster.
Keep in mind, the cleanup was a huge response, with the fire extinguished quickly and a sarcophagus built over it. Around 600,000 people were involved. Without such an effort, the radiation would be seeping out for decades afterwards. At the scale of 100 percent worldwide failure rate, that would require 600 million workers and several times world GDP in terms of financial cost.
Keep in mind, if there is a full collapse, there will not be a central government to tell you if you are in a contaminated zone or not, and there would be no regular monitoring.
See my comments re 48,000 Chernobyls…. except that they cannot be entombed….nor controlled when they blow up….
Dear Fast Eddie and Matthew Krajcik;
Matthew said, “So, only 1 million square miles of exclusion zones.”
Exactly, 1 million square miles lost to us for centuries … but wait.
149 million square kilometers on the planet => 58 million square miles on the planet (This is land surface only) so,
1/58 * 100 = 1.72%
One and seven tenths percent. :-0 !! And that assumes that they are evenly distributed, which they are not. (For example: http://www.nrc.gov/info-finder/reactors/ ) I would never, ever live in the US and east of the Mississippi, for many reasons including the commonness of those monstrous things.
I have read you gentlemen with great interest for some time now. When the subject of reactors melting down is brought up, the rhetoric always goes to something like, “Billions will die.” or “That scenario would lead to complete extinction for the human species.” I could look for actual quotes, but that isn’t needed since neither of you has tried to backpedal – yet.
There is nothing in the literature that you posted, or in the actual experience of humanity at Chernobyl or Fukushima that in any way supports the idea of letting the nukes melt down will cause the extinction of humanity. For example, the animal life around Chernobyl is doing great, in terms of numbers if not in terms of mutations. Can you show me pictures of fish kills due to nuclear poisoning off the coast of Japan?
I readily admit that the construction of nuclear reactors was one of the most stupid things the human race has done. I whole heartedly agree that the area around these things will be a terrible mess.
The question is: “Is the loss of the area that will become unlivable really going to kill off our species?” The answer: NO.
In fact, I’ll go further. Is the loss of that area really going to help reduce the numbers of humans on the planet? No, not really.
When the things melt down, the material is thrown around the area, sure. Junk and various other solids might be thrown for a mile or more. Steam and smoke are generated, and that stuff gets blown away from the reactor and may cause high levels of radiation for 100 or so miles. (The radiation will be measurable for thousands of miles, maybe everywhere, but that is not indicative of danger. It is indicative that the existence of radioisotopes can be measured at infinitesimal levels (i.e. chemists are smart).
There isn’t much point in trying to guess how many of the spent fuel pools will actually have fires. I think people assume that just because the water evaporates, and the fuel gets really hot, that it must – just as a matter of course – burn in the worst possible way. What about the case where the water evaporates, the fuel gets really hot, and nothing else substantial happens? I think that case will be typical. You may disagree all you want, but short of actually experimenting with several full sized models neither case can be proved. The fact that after only 5 years of storage the material can be dry casked strongly supports my case.
So, Joe that is 50 miles down wind from a reactor gets some sort of nasty cancer 10-15 years after the end of BAU (his kids are all born with three nipples). The guy 20 miles upwind (and his progeny) won’t even know that there is/was a problem. Meanwhile all of the real challenges that these gentlemen will face make radiation one of their smallest considerations.
You say 7 billion will die because of the nukes. I say, somewhere between 10 million, and the entire population of Europe – 0.74 billion – so, 10 – 740 million.
Glowingly Yours,
Pintada
P.S. For some reason, my first post on this subject disappeared for a couple days. I was beginning to think that I am no longer welcome. I hope that it is fair to assume that is not the case! I try to back up to text, but sometimes forget.
‘For example, the animal life around Chernobyl is doing great’
Chernobyl is not a fuel pond. It is a reactor.
Reactors have far less fuel in them than a pond — reactors are in very solid containment buildings and can be entombed like Chernobyl was.
I can see that you are trying to convince yourself not to be afraid.
Unfortunately you are only convincing yourself…. or are you just repeating ‘it can’t happen it can’t happen’ to make yourself feel better but deep down you know …. this is a nightmare that will come true.
The expert from Harvard has done the research and he has publishing the findings.
Best case scenario — 8-17 Chernobyls x 4000.
Worst case — and it will be worst case because we will not be able to control the ponds once BAU is done — extinction….
“There is nothing in the literature that you posted, or in the actual experience of humanity at Chernobyl or Fukushima that in any way supports the idea of letting the nukes melt down will cause the extinction of humanity.”
Something that is unknown to me is what quantity of radiation is released in the initial explosion, compared to how much per day, at what decline rate over time. You see, Chernobyl and Fukushima both had (and continue to have) massive responses costing many billions of dollars, involving the best equipment available.
What happens if a spent fuel pond does not catch fire, but simply slowly leaks for hundreds of years? What happens if a country has several reactors fail, and they need to spend hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars to deal with the disaster?
I think the reactors themselves are far more of a risk, since they are sealed structures – at Fukushima, the problem was that the hydrogen and oxygen split, and built up pressure, then combusted, blowing the roofs off the buildings and making a real mess. An open air or non-reinforced building with a pool full of spent rods is probably less likely to have a major explosion, and is probably easier to maintain water levels.
The spent fuel ponds inside the reactor buildings themselves fall in the same risk as the reactor cores.
The risks on the large scale is simply that all our nutritional iodine is contaminated, so children (who are most vulnerable since they are rapidly growing) absorb the radioactive iodine into their bodies, and develop thyroid cancer. Unless we inhale a lot of radioactive dust or drink severely contaminated water, or are severely malnourished, most adults >100 miles away from a source are probably quite resistant to minor radiation poisoning.
I wonder if anyone will be producing iodised salt post-BAU; otherwise, people without seafood will be prone to goiter and diminished mental capacity.
“Yet not a single rod has been dry casked”
Incorrect. Lots of spent fuel all over the world has been dry casked:
For USA: “As of the end of 2009, 13,856 metric tons of commercial spent fuel – or about 22 percent – were stored in dry casks.”
– from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_cask_storage
“All assumptions were there would be centralized waste depositories”
Actually, the assumption was the fuel would be reprocessed and used, since the spent fuel rods contain nearly as much fuel as brand new ones – in a mix of unused U-235, plus the newly made Pu-239.
“Nuclear plants were originally designed to provide temporary onsite storage of used nuclear fuel. Known as “spent fuel,” these bundles of fuel rods must be replaced from time-to-time because they lose efficiency. About one-third of the nuclear fuel in a reactor is removed and replaced with fresh fuel at each refueling. The spent fuel, which generates considerable heat and radiation, is placed into deep pools of water at the reactor site, where it can be stored safely.
Reactor designers expected spent fuel to be stored in pools for a few years before it was shipped offsite to be “reprocessed.” A reprocessing plant would separate portions that could be recycled into new fuel from the unusable portions, which would be disposed as waste. But commercial reprocessing never succeeded in the United States, so pools began to fill up.”
-from http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/dry-cask-storage.html
“Then they would just pose a health threat to the immediate area not a large area. ”
Most nuclear plants are near major rivers, lakes, and/or coastlines. As a result, it is hard to see how any leak could be just local.
As the pools near capacity, utilities move some of the older spent fuel into “dry cask” storage. Fuel is typically cooled at least 5 years in the pool before transfer to cask. NRC has authorized transfer as early as 3 years; the industry norm is about 10 years.
http://www.nrc.gov/waste/spent-fuel-storage/faqs.html
Worried now? There’s always Abilify …. I think some people grind up Xanax and snort it …. ‘whatever it takes’
The risk of explosion is minimal or non-existent if what is eligible for dry cask storage is actually interred in the casks. The problem is that it may never be put into any casks but just left in the untended cooling ponds which will dry out.
‘A typical nuclear power plant in a year generates 20 metric tons of used nuclear fuel. The nuclear industry generates a total of about 2,000 – 2,300 metric tons of used fuel per year.’
Up to 10 years before we can dry cask the fuel …. since casking is expensive I expect that you are correct that there is fuel that has been in ponds for 10+ years and remains there due to budget issues…
48,000 Chernobyls….. there’s a Neil Young song in this somewhere….
Precisely. In my original comment, I wanted to put more emphasis on the logistical problem of manufacturing and transporting the monumental number of casks that would be required to cask the 80% or so of eligible spent fuel rather than the impact of the radiation exposure.
I actually agree with Pintada that as things collapse people will already have other life threatening issues to deal with other than radiation exposure. It’s more likely that many will die from lack of food, water, medical care, contagious disease, local and global warfare, and suicide than radiation sickness caused by spent fuel ponds going critical.
I still believe that nuclear reactor sites and the spent fuel ponds will be the last things to be left unattended even as other energy sources are systematically closed down.
My concern was not with the people suffering the immediate aftermath of collapse but with the generations to come and whether the radiation from the unattended pools would gradually finish them off too.
The wildlife at The Zone are the survivors of many that died because the reactor was contained. All of Europe was under high alert and much of the damage covered up. Imagine the same without the containment…
I think Pintada brought up some interesting points that leads me to conclude that survival of the unattended spent fuel ponds is possible, mostly for those living in the southern hemisphere. The equator provides a natural barrier – because of the opposing wind systems – that would protect the south somewhat from all the fuel ponds in the north.
To cask all the spent fuel would require a monumental global effort utilising all the logistical capabilities of BAU while our globalised system is still intact.
Since the view here suggests that we are in late collapse phase where wheels could start coming off the wagon at any moment, I don’t hold out much hope for the completion of the casking initiative. Not even close!
Put it this way, the Chernobyl site was due for a fancy new sarcophogus to replace the deteriorating original in 2015. Due to lack of funds, this project has been delayed until 2017. Now, this is a crap old reactor that blew up in the 80’s that they were able to contain through massive effort during BAU. I’m sceptical that their 2017 recontainment project goes ahead as planned. I suspect it’ll be kicked down the road again and so on…
And again, all that trouble to this day for one old reactor… which is nothing like the problem involving 4000 spent fuel ponds.
So, putting the impact of the radiation to one side for a moment, the task of containing not only the fuel ponds, but the reactors themselves, appears to be unachievable on a scale beyond, well… 0.5 of a reactor?
And if radiation is not the problem we imagine it to be, then why bother with the containment of Chernobyl at all? Or Fukushima? Just let them burn for 30 years or more. Why the panic? Why was a global fund required to raise funds to make sure that Chernobyl gets resealed in 2017?
Right now, I’m staring at the wind powered generators on the hill outside my house. Even though they may not be the answer to our predicament, at least they wont be spewing cesium-137 after they grind to a halt for good.
To put things in perspective, we already put up with millions of deaths due to cancer from preventable sources such as tobacco smoke. People “willingly” put themselves at risk from the radioactive and other toxic substances in tobacco. Some survive into old age. Others don’t.
I agree with these comments — the food issue coupled with disease etc… is likely enough to extinct us…. the radiation likely provided the coup de grace….
Anyone surviving all of this will wish they hadn’t.
The fact that the Elders are doing absolutely nothing to get the world ready for collapse is an indication that they understand the futility of the situation…..
“To put things in perspective, we already put up with millions of deaths due to cancer from preventable sources such as tobacco smoke.”
There is a huge difference between an adult choosing to smoke cigarettes knowing they may get cancer and die, and an unwitting child dying of thyroid cancer due to someone else’s complacency.
I think this is a pretty widely held view; that’s why a few thousand dying from homicide by firearms is a big issue, while hundreds of thousands dying from poor diet is not.
As the pools near capacity, utilities move some of the older spent fuel into “dry cask” storage. Fuel is typically cooled at least 5 years in the pool before transfer to cask. NRC has authorized transfer as early as 3 years; the industry norm is about 10 years.
http://www.nrc.gov/waste/spent-fuel-storage/faqs.html
Interestingly I initially tried to search what would happen if spent fuel ponds were left unmanaged or cut off from power for long periods — this is not something that has been contemplated because all one can find is info on back up systems
All assume BAU is forever….
The terrorism study from Harvard was the closest thing I could find to understanding what happens if the water boils off of one of these ponds of death…
The thing is …
A terrorist incident is nowhere near the worst case scenario — if a terrorist crashed a plane into one of these and the cooling water leaked out ….
We still have the full force of BAU in play —- we’d just start pumping millions of gallons of water onto the ponds — just like we are doing to this day on the reactor cores at Fukushima — and prevent a worst case scenario…
We won’t be able to prevent the worst case scenario post BAU…..
“Nuclear waste may not have found a permanent resting place, but 32 bundles of spent fuel rods from the Indian Point 2 plant in Westchester County have found a home suitable for at least the next few decades — a steel and concrete cask surrounded by razor wire, floodlights and surveillance cameras about 300 feet from the reactor building.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/nyregion/12nuke.html?_r=0
‘After years in a storage pool, the more than 6,000 rods, each of them 12 feet long, have been dried out and immersed in helium gas to prevent rust, fitted into slots like eggs in a carton, and sealed in a steel canister for what may be the next few hundred thousand years.’
Yes they have been dry casked after years in a pond.
Nothing new hear — you cannot put fresh fuel into a dry cask — it MUST be put into dry casks for years before you can do that.
Yes, as you quoted 3 or 5 or 10 years in water before dry casking.
How about this idea: Build a space elevator, then launch radioactive waste in casks to the surface of the Moon. The casks can crash and spew the stuff all over the place, but it wouldn’t matter there.
Maybe Elon Musk needs to get on this …. or Branson …..
I have never understood how nuclear fuel can be considered “spent” if it is still capable of boiling off the water in its pool and causing a melt down. Admittedly, I am not a nuclear scientist, but if the spent roads can still boil water, can it not also create steam to spin turbines, thus creating electricity? Anybody out there know the answer to this simpleton’s question? Thanks.
From the above comment Mathew…
Known as “spent fuel,” these bundles of fuel rods must be replaced from time-to-time because they lose efficiency.
Reactor designers expected spent fuel to be stored in pools for a few years before it was shipped offsite to be “reprocessed.” A reprocessing plant would separate portions that could be recycled into new fuel from the unusable portions, which would be disposed as waste.
I guess the rods deteriorate and therefore need recycling before they can sqeeze more juice out of them.
“I have never understood how nuclear fuel can be considered “spent” if it is still capable of boiling off the water in its pool and causing a melt down. ”
The fuel rods are full of small spheres, like ball bearings, made up originally of say 4% U-235 and 96% u-238 – all metal.
As nuclear reactions happen, some of the U-235 is split into gases and other elements that are not metals. Eventually, the pellets cannot withstand the pressure, and they crack and then crumble. Maybe over time the rods themselves begin to get stressed and wear, and you definitely don’t want chunks and crumbs gumming up the works inside the reactor core.
Also, they just become far less efficient as you have a mix of less fertile fuel. Since normal reactors are not breeders, they only produce, say, half as much plutonium 239 for the amount of Uranium 235 that was consumed. You want the plant to produce the full 1000 MW or whatever it is rated for, not have the production fall to 500 MW and cause brown-outs and loss of profit.
As mentioned on the NRC page about dry casking, the original idea was that the fuel rods would simply cool off a bit, then be reprocessed back into new pellets in new rods with either the full amount of U-235, or a mix of the U-235 and Pu-239. In America, this was never commercially done.
In Great Britain, the Sellafield facility was used for fuel reprocessing, but during the miner’s strike they were running the nuclear plants hard to make up the shortfall from the coal plants so the lights would stay on, and reprocessing the fuel at a much accelerated rate, but it overwhelmed the facility and somehow it all got jammed up, the production shutdown, and the waste just left to cool off.
It is the Union of Scientists who do not really understand what we should be worried about. The idea of a finite world, with problems related to the fact that is finite, has never crossed most people’s minds.
Yup – why initiate and fund a study on a scenario that is unthinkable…. impossible….
The pinnacle of hubris…..
And yet that’s exactly what they do at Oxford University in their Philosophy dept. No hubris lacking there. 😉
Existential Risk – Threats to Humanity’s Future
http://www.existential-risk.org/
Professor Nick Bostrom has been thinking and talking about these issues for some time…
http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html
At this point, you’d have to differentiate between Global Catastrophic Risk and Risk of Human Extinction. I am concerned with neither of the above. I see it as an intellectual pastime for ivory tower dwellers. I am only concerned with the demise of BAU.
I recommend going through the list of Risks under the second link for entertainment purposes. You can also check out the wikipedia page here…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk
It’s all rogue nanotech, artificial intelligence gone wild, nuclear wars, and global warming… not much about reaching limits, crashing economies and so on.
The closest I could find was “World population and agricultural crisis” which is slated for between 2020 and 2050.
Mostly these guys like to dream about distant sci-fi scenarios which allows time for solutions to be dreamt up also. Unfortunately, no matter how bright they may be, they tend to miss the drab reality that’s sitting right under their noses.
From the horses mouth… (Bostrom)
“History is peppered with false prognostications of imminent doom. Blustering doomsayers are harmful: not only do they cause unnecessary fear and disturbance, but — worse — they deplete our responsiveness and make even sensible efforts to understand or reduce existential risk look silly by association.
To date, most doomsday prophets have not based their claims on science. It is therefore tempting to say that the solution is simply to distinguish superstition from science. However, although this distinction is important, it does not fully address the problem of doom-mongering. It is perfectly possible to produce overconfident science-based predictions of imminent catastrophe, or at least overconfident predictions that appear to be based on science. The predictions of Paul Ehrlich and the Club of Rome in the early 1970s might be viewed as examples of this. Furthermore, it is impossible to assess the likelihood of many of the biggest risks using strict and narrow scientific methods. There is no rigorously scientific way of foretelling how future technological capabilities will be used. Yet it would be an error to infer that powerful future technologies will pose no risk, or that we should focus our attention exclusively on those smaller risks that are easily quantifiable.”
I’ll leave you to make of that what you will…
But here’s my take on it. The guys at Union of Concerned Scientists would be deemed very smart people by your average Joe and yet they appear to be totally clueless or deliberately evasive about possible and imminent end of BAU scenarios.
But I’ll let them off. It’s not their area of expertise. Nick Bostrom and other long term Doom PHDs on the other hand…. should be all over this end of BAU business because, as we can clearly see, it has a much higher probability of actually happening than all of the other scenarios put together.
But it doesn’t end there. End of BAU is the kickstarter for many of the so-called “theoretical” catastrophic scenarios that these guys believe to be low probability mid-long term future events.
It’s as if these academics have been studying the eventual possible symptoms of a disease without ever considering what the underlying cause might be… and that the disease was contracted long ago.
Knowing that many of these professors are Transhumanists may help understand their biases. Although they outline the pitfalls of a posthuman future they are very much in love with the idea of humanity continuing in non-biological form. Indeed, they see human “enhancement” as a necessary step in overcoming the hurdles that they talk of. I don’t think they have enough understanding of how our little fossil fuel pyramid experiment is put together… and how it’s finally beginning to fall apart.
In general, perhaps we are wired so, we obses over microscopic risks and totally ignore the real ones. We worry about plane crashes while ignore the much bigger risk of driving to the airport. We go crazy over ISIS, while ignoring all sort of common violence.
Quiz:
Were more people killed by gunfire in America in January — or by ISIS globally…..
Dear Fast Eddie;
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
Great article! Very dramatic and sensational. I’m sure it must have sold billions and billions of copies.
But seriously.
1. Hot lumps of metal sinking into the ground and totally screwing up the immediate area < 100 square miles is NOT the equivalent of a nuclear weapon. To compare the two by weight of the reactants is completely disingenuous for obvious reasons.
2. There is a big difference in BAU motivations, and post BAU motivations. TEPCO is trying to prevent any damage beyond their fences. Post BAU, the question will be, "Can I find a place to survive?"
Sincerely,
Pintada
Sorry! I said 100 sq mi. when i meant an area 100 miles in diameter. Big difference.
Don’t like that article….
Here try this — but first I suggest you swallow 5 Abilify….
A very obscure research paper…. that took me literally hours to find when I began my research…..
It is a scientific research paper — not a newspaper article — that was commissioned by the government of the United States to help determine the impact of a spent fuel pond being compromised by a terrorist attack.
It was intended to be used to determined what level of security should be put in place at spent fuel pond facilities.
As usual the government goes to industry experts — so-called Think Tanks….. for guidance….
There are 4000 ponds around the world so we multiple by that figure…..
Harvard says one pond = 8-17x Chernobyls — let’s be kind and use 12 x which = 48,000 Chernobyls.
The thing is…
The report assumes only one pond explodes….. it assumes that BAU would be standing by to act …. that we could immediately send in the cavalry to pour water on the rods and contain the radiation — that we could gather the rods and put them back into a containment facility …..
I actually tried to contact the man in charge of the project by email to ask him what would happen if a pond was smashed and we were unable to repair it…. he did not respond — I can imagine he thought I was an idiot —- he no doubt could not imagine such a scenario — I guarantee he could not imagine the Beast dying….
So the numbers they are providing – are nowhere even close to a worst case scenario…
When the Beast dies…. there will be NO cavalry…… the water boils off — the rods catch fire and we get decades of billowing clouds of radiation spewing in the atmosphere…..
Multiply that by 4000….= EXTINCTION EVENT IMMINENT.
A typical 1 GWe PWR core contains about 80 t fuels. Each year about one third of the core fuel is discharged into the pool. A pool with 15 year storage capacity will hold about 400 t spent fuel.
To estimate the Cs-137 inventory in the pool, for example, we assume the Cs137 inventory at shutdown is about 0.1 MCi/tU with a burn-up of 50,000 MWt-day/tU, thus the pool with 400 t of ten year old SNF would hold about 33 MCi Cs-137. [7]
Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire, [8] the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated. [9]
For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl).
http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html
“Great article! Very dramatic and sensational. I’m sure it must have sold billions and billions of copies.”
All those rods have since been removed, over a year ago:
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/12/20/national/all-spent-fuel-removed-from-reactor-4-pool-at-fukushima-no-1-tepco-says/
“But seriously.
1. Hot lumps of metal sinking into the ground and totally screwing up the immediate area < 100 square miles is NOT the equivalent of a nuclear weapon."
We are comparing amount of radiation released, not the explosive force of an atomic weapon. Of course, a bomb will release most of its radiation at the time of detonation, whereas a bunch of used fuel would release it much more slowly, probably at the rate of decay unless there was enough fuel unmoderated close enough together to go critical.
"2. There is a big difference in BAU motivations, and post BAU motivations. "
Well, that is a huge factor, for sure. Will people just run away as far as they can, or will there be some semblance of order, with people sending resources to feed, clothe and house the workers and their families while they continue tending and guarding the waste in perpetuity?
Dear Matthew Krajcik;
“We are comparing amount of radiation released, not the explosive force …”
Agreed, but in addition, the radiation from a bomb is released high in the atmosphere, and the hottest (least stable) radio nucleotides are immediately forced into the environment. That is a big difference, since the slowly decaying elements are less dangerous than the quickly decaying ones. The slowly decaying ones emit alpha and beta particles, the fast decaying ones can emit gamma, and x-rays. Alpha and beta particles will cause harm only if ingested while the others are much more energetic.
The “explosions” caused by overheated spent fuel would never scatter the radiation very far (tens of miles, not thousands of miles), regardless of the number of tons stored. The difference between 10 tons, and 1000 or more tons would be a difference in how nasty the site would be.
Even if the spent fuel went critical, the material would melt and mix with soil and rock thus eventually eliminating the criticality. The main part of the radioactive blob would remain in place.
Again, we are left with a really nasty spot on the earth with clean areas surrounding it. No extinction event here.
Thanks for the conversation, Matthew,
Pintada
“Even if the spent fuel went critical, the material would melt and mix with soil and rock thus eventually eliminating the criticality. The main part of the radioactive blob would remain in place.”
Except groundwater will be contaminated, and the contaminated water travels downstream along with the water around it. Whether generations of low level exposure are a real problem or not, I don’t know.
As for your claims of tens of miles, again, most nuclear plants are along major rivers, lakes and coastlines. For example, compare this map of reactors in the USA:
http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/map-power-reactors.html
With this map of water:
http://www.enchantedlearning.com/usa/rivers/
The nuclear plant in Kansas could contaminate half of the Mississippi basin and the Gulf of Mexico. How much, no idea. Whether bioaccumulation is a real threat or not, I do not know.
‘Even if the spent fuel went critical, the material would melt and mix with soil and rock thus eventually eliminating the criticality’
Did you do your PHD thesis on this? Or perhaps you have a reference for this?
Or you are just engaging in wishful thinking and hoping that nobody calls you out on it.
Yooo hooooo — I am calling you out on it.
Dear Matthew Krajcik;
Matthew said, “I wonder if anyone will be producing iodised salt post-BAU; otherwise, people without seafood will be prone to goiter and diminished mental capacity.”
Another point of agreement that I would like to expand on. I don’t eat seafood because of the moral implications of overfishing, and because of the mercury and other contaminants. I think we have illustrated the point that seafood after BAU will be deadly because of the radiation in the water. It looks like I should lay in a supply of iodine. It has a very long shelf life.
Good tip,
Pintada
Dear Fast Eddie;
Fast Eddie said, “The expert from Harvard has done the research and he has publishing the findings.”
Sorry, I see no link. I would very much enjoy reading the opinions and calculations of an actual nuclear physicist on this subject. I am not impressed with empty sensationalism.
Sincerely,
Pintada
Hui Zhang
Senior Research Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
Contact:
Telephone: 617-495-5710
Fax: 617-496-0606
Email: Hui_Zhang@harvard.edu
Experience
Hui Zhang is a Senior Research Associate at the Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Hui Zhang is leading a research initiative on China’s nuclear policies for the Project on Managing the Atom in the Kennedy School of Government.
His researches include verification techniques of nuclear arms control, the control of fissile material, nuclear terrorism, China’s nuclear policy, nuclear safeguards and non-proliferation, policy of nuclear fuel cycle and reprocessing.
Before coming to the Kennedy School in September 1999, he was a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University from 1997-1999, and in 1998-1999, he received a post-doctoral fellowship from the Social Science Research Council, a MacArthur Foundation program on International Peace and Security. From 2002-2003, he received a grant for Research and Writing from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Hui Zhang received his Ph.D. in nuclear physics in Beijing in 1996.
Dr. Zhang is the author of several technical reports and book chapters, and dozens of articles in academic journals and the print media including Science and Global Security, Arms Control Today, Bulletin of Atomic Scientist, Disarmament Diplomacy, Disarmament Forum, the Non-proliferation Review, Washington Quarterly, Journal of Nuclear Materials Management , INESAP, and China Security. Dr. Zhang gives many oral presentations and talks in international conferences and organizations.
Here’s some info on other related projects the Belfare Centre has been involved in … http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/project/3/managing_the_atom.html
I would imagine there were a few engineers and nuclear physicists involved in this project…
His phone number is at the top of the page…. why don’t you ring him and tell him and ask him how he came to these conclusions — or better still — tell him he is unqualified to write such a report….
How do you feel about this guys qualifications:
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress
Location
CNS Building, 499 Van Buren St.
Email
jdalnokiveress@miis.edu
Phone
831.647.4638
Scientist in Residence and Adjunct Professor
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress is Scientist-in-Residence at CNS and holds an MSc and PhD in high energy physics from Carleton University, Canada. He specializes in ultra-low radioactivity background detectors and has professional experience in the field of astroparticle physics, primarily neutrino physics. He has been involved in several major discoveries in the field of neutrino physics and has worked on several international collaborations in Canada (SNO), Germany (Double Chooz at Max Planck Institute of Nuclear Physics), Italy (Borexino), and the United States. He has contributed to more than 50 articles in refereed and non-refereed journals of which 6 papers had more than 1000 citations/publication. The SNO result to which he contributed was ranked as the top three scientific breakthroughs of 2002 for Science Magazine, Discover Magazine, and the American Institute of Physics. His efforts have also contributed to the first real-time measurement of low energy solar neutrinos heralded in 2007 by Nature magazine as a “triumph for experimenters”. Note that the techniques developed in the interests of neutrino and low background physics rely on measuring extremely rare signals just as often the case in the fields of nuclear forensics, nuclear archaeology, nuclear safeguards monitoring and the detection of radioactive gases from nuclear tests. Finding a needle in a haystack is always difficult.
He’s behind these comments – which are in line with the Harvard conclusions:
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere.
Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies. One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
You disagree with both of these scientists. On what basis?
What are your credentials?
I see – none.
Do you have any references that we can examine that support your position?
I see – none.
I believe in the tooth fairy and santa claus.
Don’t call me crazy just because I cannot prove they exist!!! I believe in them – that is good enough for me it should be good enough for you