Item of General Interest
July 25. I received notice today that an article I helped write is available for free download for the next fifty days. The corrected free link for the article is "An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits." The article discusses the possibility that oil prices may not rise endlessly, and evaluates three future price scenarios. Under the "low" scenario (prices remain under $50 per barrel), oil production in China has already peaked.
Tag Archives: recession
A person often reads that low oil prices–for example, $30 per barrel oil prices–will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: 1. Oil … Continue reading
Most people believe that low oil prices are good for the United States, since the discretionary income of consumers will rise. There is the added benefit that Peak Oil must be far off in the distance, since “Peak Oilers” talked … Continue reading
Both the stock market and oil prices have been plunging. Is this “just another cycle,” or is it something much worse? I think it is something much worse. Back in January, I wrote a post called Oil and the Economy: Where … Continue reading
We all know generally how today’s economy works: Our economy is a networked system. I have illustrated it as being similar to a child’s building toy. Ever-larger structures can be built by adding more businesses and consumers, and by using … Continue reading
Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, the question comes back to, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?” If workers were getting rich enough to buy new homes and … Continue reading