The Federal Reserve would like to raise target interest rates because of inflation concerns and concern that asset bubbles are forming. Part of their concern seems to arise indirectly from the rise in oil prices, relative to their low level in early 2016.
Figure 1. WSJ figure indicating likely reasons for rate hike.
A finite world does not behave the way most modelers expect. Interest rates that worked perfectly well in the past don’t necessarily work well now. Oil prices that worked perfectly well in the past don’t necessarily work well now. It seems to me that raising interest rates at this time is very ill advised. These are a few of the issues I see:
[1] The economy is now incredibly dependent upon rising debt to prop up its spending. The pattern of total debt to GDP for the United States is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. United States’ debt to GDP ratios based on Federal Reserve Z1 data and BEA GDP data. The red line represents the increase over the latest three years.
There was a huge increase in debt in the period leading up to the 2008 crash. Every year between 2001 and 2008, the increase in debt was greater than four times the increase in GDP. In fact, for some years in that period, more than $8 of debt were added for every dollar of GDP added.
We now seem to be starting a new run up in debt. In 2015, the amount of debt added was $2.5 trillion ($66.1 trillion minus $63.6 trillion), while the amount of GDP added was only $529 million. This indicates a ratio of over 4.7 for the single year of 2016. (Figure 2 shows only three-year averages, because of the volatility of amounts.)
[2] The vast majority of the debt run-up since 1981 (Figure 2) seems to have been enabled by falling interest rates (Figure 3). Given how dependent we are now on large increases in debt to produce GDP, it would seem to be dangerous for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Figure 3. US Federal Bonds 10 year interest rates. Graph produced by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
With falling interest rates, monthly payments can be lower, even if prices of homes and cars rise. Thus, more people can afford homes and cars, and factories are less expensive to build. The whole economy is boosted by increased “demand” (really increased affordability) for high-priced goods, thanks to the lower monthly payments.
Asset prices, such as home prices and farm prices, can rise because the reduced interest rate for debt makes them more affordable to more buyers. Assets that people already own tend to inflate, making them feel richer. In fact, owners of assets such as homes can borrow part of the increased equity, giving them more spendable income for other things. This is part of what happened leading up to the financial crash of 2008.
The interest rates that the Federal Reserve plans to change are of a different type, called “Effective Federal Funds Rate.” These also hit a peak about 1981.
Figure 4. US Federal Funds target interest rate. Graph produced by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
[3] The last time Federal Funds target interest rate was raised, the situation ended very badly.
Figure 4 (above) shows that the last time Federal Reserve target interest rate was raised was in the 2004-2005 period. This was another time when the Federal Reserve was concerned about the run-up in food and energy prices, as I mention in my paper Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. The higher target interest rate was somewhat slow acting, but it eventually played a role in bursting the debt bubble that had been built up. In 2008, the amount of outstanding mortgage debt and consumer credit started falling, and oil prices fell dramatically.
It is ironic that the US government is again trying to bring down food and energy prices, when they are at a price level similar to the price level when they tried this approach the last time.
Figure 5. Monthly average Brent oil prices, with notes regarding when the Federal Reserve changed its target interest rate.
The Federal Reserve looks at its favorite metrics, PCE inflation and PCE inflation excluding food and energy. From this high-level view, it is likely that they have no real understanding of exactly what energy price problems are causing the strange result. With this high-level view, they do not realize that a big contributor to the rising costs is the increase in oil prices between the January – March 2016 period, when they were under $40 per barrel, and recent prices, which were above $50. (They are now back below $50 per barrel, but this would not be apparent from the metric.)
When this high-level view is used, it is easy to miss how low energy prices are today, relative to the needs of energy producers. Most people who have been following what is happening in the oil industry know that prices are not high, relative to the prices needed for profitability. Even if some US companies claim to be profitable at $50 per barrel, it is clear that, in general, the industry cannot withstand prices as low as they are today. At the current price level, investment is too low.
Part of the problem is that oil exporters need higher prices if they are to obtain adequate tax revenue to fund their programs. For example, Saudi Arabia has found that because of its falling tax revenue, it needs to borrow money to maintain its programs. This is a big change from being able to set aside money in a reserve fund, out of excess tax revenue. This is another place where the shift is toward more debt.
[4] The pattern the Federal Reserve seems to want to follow is the 1981 model, in which temporary high interest rates seemed to force energy prices down for a long time.
If we look at oil prices compared to US wages per capita (dividing total wages by total population), we find that oil “affordability” was at a low point in 1981. We saw previously in Figures 3 and 4 that interest rates were raised to a very high level at that time. The gray stripes in Figures 3 and 4 indicate that a recession followed.
Figure 6. Average barrels of crude oil affordable by US residents, calculated by dividing the average per capita wages (calculated by dividing BEA wages by population), by EIA’s average Brent oil price for each year.
Figure 6 shows that after interest rates fell, affordability rose until 1998. To a significant extent this was the result of falling prices, but it also was the result of a larger share of the population working, and thus contributing to rising wages.
There were many things that allowed this benevolent outcome to happen. One was the fact that we already knew about available oil in the North Sea, Mexico, and Alaska. When this oil came online, oil prices were able to drop back to a much more affordable level. It is very doubtful that shale oil could play a similar role today, especially if it is likely that higher interest rates will drop oil prices from today’s $50 per barrel level.
One thing that helped improve affordability in the post-1981 period was improved gasoline mileage. There were also cutbacks in oil use for home heating and for electricity generation.
Figure 7. Average on-road fuel efficiency by Sivak and Schoettle, “On-Road Fuel Economy of Vehicles in the United States: 1923-2015,” http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/
Figure 7 suggests that the earliest changes in fuel economy provided the biggest savings. In fact, overall savings after 1993 are quite modest.
One factor that helped reduce oil consumption both in the 1970s and in the 2008 to 2013 period was high prices. Now that oil prices are lower, we cannot expect as good a result. If oil prices drop back further, there is even less incentive to conserve.
[5] Adjustments made using Quantitative Easing (QE) (a way of producing low interest rates) appear to have had a rapid, significant impact on oil prices.
In late 2008, after oil prices had crashed, the US Federal Reserve implemented QE. Using QE created very low interest rates, which seem to have had an impact on world oil prices.
Figure 8. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending QE.
Clearly, lower interest rates encourage more borrowing, and discontinuing a program that gives very low rates would tend to have the opposite impact. Thus, we would expect the direction of the oil price changes to be similar to those shown on Figure 8.
One hypothesis regarding the rapid impact of QE was that it encouraged borrowing in US dollars, in order to purchase bonds in other currencies with higher interest rates (“carry trade”). When QE ended, the carry trade was cut off, reducing investment in countries with higher interest rates. Instead, there was more interest in investing in the US. These changes led to the US dollar rising relative to many other currencies. Since oil is priced in US dollars, these shifting relativities made oil more expensive in non-US dollar currencies. Thus, the affordability of oil declined for buyers outside the US. It was this decline in affordability outside the US that brought down oil prices. Figure 9 shows the shift in currency levels when the US discontinued QE in 2014.
Figure 9. US Dollar vs. Major Trade Weighted Currencies. Chart created by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
Increasing Federal Reserve target interest rates would seem to have the effect of further raising how high the US dollar floats compared to other currencies. If this happens, we would expect lower oil prices, and more problems with excessive supply.
[6] The way increased lending seems to move the economy along is by using time shifting to provide a “layer” of future goods and services that can be used as incentives for businesses to invest in making goods and services now.
The problem when making goods of any kind is that resources need to be purchased and workers need to be paid, before the finished product is available for sale.
Figure 10. Image created by author showing how goods and services are created. It also needs a “government services sector,” but it didn’t fit easily on the slide.
As a result, at the time goods and services are produced, there aren’t enough already-created goods and services to pay all of those who have contributed to the effort of making the goods and services. To work around this problem, debt or a product similar to debt is needed to pay some of those contributing to the process of creating future goods and services.
One way of thinking about the situation is that an increase in debt during a time period adds a layer of future goods and services that can be distributed to those contributing to the effort of making the goods and services (Figure 11). This significantly increases the amount of goods and services to be distributed above the level that would be available on a barter basis, based on goods that have already been produced.
Figure 11. Figure by author showing how the “increase in debt” effectively adds another layer of goods and services that can be distributed. (As with Figure 10, this chart should include a category for government services as well.)
[7] The spending ability of US citizens has been lagging behind, even with the huge amount of debt being added to the economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it will tend to make the situation worse.
The biggest expenditure for most households is housing costs, either for an apartment or a new home. As with oil, we can compare affordability by comparing prices to per capita wages (total US wages/total population). On Figure 12, one amount shown is the median rent for unfurnished apartments in the US, based on US Census Bureau data; the other is The People History’s estimate of “new home” prices over the years. In general, affordability has been falling. Figure 12 shows that the fall in affordability of apartment rent is a relatively recent phenomenon. The fall in affordability of home prices is a long-term phenomenon, no doubt enabled by falling interest rates since 1981.
Figure 12. Comparison of new home prices from The People History and median non-subsidized rental asking prices based on US Census bureau data. These are divided by (total US wages/ US population) from the US BEA. The indexes are different for home and apartments, chosen so that two would show separately on the chart. If amounts shown are falling over time, housing is becoming less affordable.
Another product whose affordability is of interest is electricity. Electricity is an energy product whose affordability is important, because it is used in residential, commercial, and industrial locations. The affordability of electricity tends to be less volatile in pricing than oil, whose affordability was shown in Figure 6. Because the pricing of electricity is more stable, I have shown the affordability of electricity at three different spending levels:
- Per Capita Wages – Total US wages divided by total US population.
- Per Capita DPI – Total Disposable Personal Income (DPI) divided by total US population. Disposable Personal Income includes government transfer payments (such as Social Security and unemployment payments), in addition to wages. It also includes “proprietors’ income,”which is a relatively smaller amount.
- Per capita DPI+Debt – Total Disposable Personal Income, plus the increase in Household Debt during the year, divided by population.
Figure 13. Quantity of electricity that an average worker could afford to buy, using three different definitions of income. (Average wages are based on BEA total salaries and wages, divided by BEA total population, and Disposable Personal Income is defined similarly, using BEA data. DPI plus debt includes the change in Household Debt, from the Federal Reserve’s Z1 report, in addition to DPI in the numerator.)
Based on Figure 13, electricity was becoming more affordable until 2001 on a wages-only basis. Since then, its cost has been relatively flat.
On a DPI basis, electricity was considerably more affordable until 2004, after which it declined, and then rose again.
On a DPI + Debt basis, there was a much bigger jump in affordability. This big increase in debt corresponds to the housing bubble of the early to mid 2000s. Interest rates were lower and underwriting standards lessened, so that almost anyone could buy a home. This allowed a run-up in home prices. Homeowners could borrow this equity and use it for whatever purpose they chose–for example, fixing up their home, buying a new car, or going on a vacation. The big increase in DPI+Debt, relative to DPI, gives an indication of the extent to which the housing-related debt bubble in the early 2000s affected spendable income.
Which of these scenarios is really correct? It depends on the segment of the economy a person is looking at. For people of modest income, in other words, those who rent apartments, the wage-only scenario is probably the most representative. For people who have high incomes and own a home, the DPI plus Debt scenario is probably more representative.
[8] All income seems to ultimately derive in part from rising debt, and in part from energy consumption. If interest rates are too high, the required interest payment exceeds the benefit of time shifting.
We can see from Figure 13 that debt is very helpful in producing income for workers. Some of this comes from the government transfer payments, funded by debt. Some of this comes from the wages paid by businesses, funded in part by shares of stock, which are debt-like in nature. The currency with which workers are paid is, in fact, debt. A person can see the connection, by thinking of currency as being similar to “gift cards,” issued by a business. The business would need to record the value of these gift cards as a liability on its balance sheet.
The underlying problem giving rise to the need for debt is “complexity,” and the need to obtain the services of many trained people and of many types of tools, before goods and services can actually be created. All of this builds extra expense and delays into the system, in the manner described in Figures 10 and 11. Somehow, there must be interest payments to compensate for the time shifting that is necessary: the whole string of events that must lead up to producing the products that are needed. Tools must be made far in advance of when they are needed. In fact, there is a whole string of “tools to make tools” that takes place. Factory buildings need to be built, and roads need to be built. Workers must be trained. In order for the people and businesses involved in these processes to be compensated for their effort, and induced to delay their own consumption of goods and services, there need to be interest payments made for the time-delay involved.
Debt (together with shares of stock, which are debt-like) cannot operate the economy alone. Energy products are also needed to provide the physical transformations required. These include heat and transportation, and electricity to operate devices that use electricity. Of course, human workers are needed as well. The major pieces of the system, and the way they operate together, are shown in Figures 10 and 11.
It would appear that an economy can start “from scratch,” using only debt, plus available resources (including energy resources, such as biomass for burning), and some sort of government (perhaps a self-declared king). If the king sees a productive project that might be undertaken–perhaps building a bridge, or cutting down more trees for farmland–the king can impose a tax on the citizens, and use the tax to hire a group of laborers to use the available resources. Once the tax is imposed, it is a debt of the citizens. It can be used to pay the laborers who do the work.
The debt-based system seems to build upon itself. As more wages are available, these wages allow workers to take out loans, and allow businesses to create new goods and services that can be purchased using these loans. These loans are promises that can be exchanged for future goods and services. Since energy is used in creating all goods and services, these loans are more or less guarantees that the economy, and its use of energy products, will continue in the future.
The thing that connects debt to the rest of the system is the interest payments required for time shifting. When the system is relatively efficient, the return on investment is high, so interest payments can be high. As diminishing returns set in, interest rates need to be lower. We are now encountering diminishing returns in many areas: extracting fossil fuels, extracting minerals, producing enough fresh water for a rising population, creating an adequate supply of food from a fixed amount of arable land, creating new antibiotics as bacteria become drug resistant, and the cost of finding new drugs to treat diseases that affect an ever-smaller share of the population.
[9] It is relatively easy to make economic growth occur when energy products are becoming more affordable, relative to spendable income. When energy products are becoming less affordable, it becomes virtually impossible for economic growth to occur.
We know that historically, the cost of energy products has tended to fall over time. This has been described in more than one academic paper.
Figure 14. Figure by Carey King from “Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives,” published in Energies in Nov. 2015.
A United Nation’s report also shows the same pattern (the bottom two categories are energy related):
Figure 15. Figure from UNEP Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity.
The only way that energy costs can fall relative to GDP, at the same time that energy use is rising, is if energy products are becoming less expensive over time, compared to the incomes of the citizens. This falling price level allows more energy products to be purchased. As energy prices drop, it is possible for the economy to afford the increasing quantity of energy products required to produce even more goods and services.
There are many ways that energy products can become less expensive. For example, the mix can shift among different energy products, shifting to the less expensive products. Or new techniques can be found that make extraction less expensive. Finding more efficient ways to make use of energy products, such as the increasing miles per gallon shown in Figure 7, also contributes to the falling relative cost to workers. Of course, “falling EROEI” tends to work in the opposite direction.
Unfortunately, we are now running out of ways to truly make energy use cheaper over time. The ways we seem to be down to now are (a) paying energy companies less than their cost of extraction, and (b) reducing interest rates to practically zero.
We can see from Figure 6 that oil was becoming more affordable relative to wages between 1981 and 1998. Falling interest rates and rising debt seemed to play a role in this, as well as success in drilling for oil in places such as the North Sea, Mexico and Alaska. Since then, the only way that oil affordability could rise was by oil prices falling below the cost of extraction, starting in mid 2014.
The situation for electricity is shown in Figure 13. Electricity was becoming more affordable on a “wages-only” basis, until 2000. Since then it has plateaued. The economic push that would have come from falling electricity prices must come from elsewhere–presumably from adding more debt.
Affordability of electricity on a “DPI plus debt” basis rose considerably more, with a peak in 2004. Thus, adding more debt, in the form of transfer payments and rising debt for homes and vehicles, added considerable spendable income. But it has not been possible to regain the affordability of the 2004 period in recent years.
We are now reaching limits because we no longer are truly seeing a reduction in energy costs. Instead, we are seeing very low interest rates and oil prices lower than the cost of production. These seem to be signs that we now are reaching limits. Energy prices really need to drop for the economy to grow; the economy will make them drop, whether or not producers can profitably extract oil at the low cost that is affordable by the citizens.
[10] China seems to be cutting back on growth in debt now, at the same time the US is talking about increasing interest rates. Energy products, especially oil, are sold to a world market. If China cuts back on debt at the same time as the US raises interest rates, energy prices could drop dramatically.
Figure 16. UBS Total Credit Impulse. The Credit Impulse is the “Change in the Change” in debt formation.
UBS calculates a global “credit impulse,” showing the extent to which there is a trend toward increasing use of debt. According to their calculations, since 2014, it is China that has been keeping the Global Credit Impulse up. If China is cutting back, and the US is cutting back as well, the situation starts looking like the 2008-2009 period, except starting from greater problems with diminishing returns.
Observations and Conclusions
The economy looks to me like a type of Ponzi Scheme. It depends on both rising energy consumption and rising debt. Judging from the problems we are having now, it seems to be reaching its limit in the near term. Raising interest rates will tend to push it even further toward its limit, or over the limit.
Debt is used to pay participants in the economy using a promise for future goods and services. This allows the economy to appear to distribute more goods and services than are actually available. In a way, adding debt is like being able to manufacture future energy supplies that can be used to pay those who participate in making the goods and services we produce today. When energy products are high-cost to produce, and delayed in timing (such as wind and solar PV), the need for debt especially rises.
Part of our problem today is the extent of specialization of those analyzing our current problems with energy and the economy. This means that virtually no one understands the full problem. Bankers seem to think that debt, and interest rates on debt, can solve all problems. Energy analysts think that energy resources in the ground are all-important. They both create incorrect analyses of the overall problem. Rising debt is needed, if energy products that have been created are to be absorbed by the world economy. The energy gluts we are seeing are signs of inadequate wage growth. A major function of growing debt is to add wages. Unwinding debt leads to the kinds of problems that we encountered in 2008.
It is tempting for world financial leaders to think that they can find a solution to today’s problems by using higher target interest rates to slightly scale back economic growth. I don’t think that this is really a good option. The world economy is operating at too close to “stall speed.” The financial system is too fragile. If any solution can be expected to work, it would seem to need to be in the direction of re-starting QE. Even if it produces asset bubbles, it may keep the world economy operating for a bit longer.
NSA whistleblower William Binney told Tucker Carlson on Friday that the NSA is spying on “all the members of the Supreme Court, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Congress, both House and Senate, as well as the White House.”
Binney, who served the NSA for 30 years before blowing the whistle on domestic spying in 2001, told Tucker he firmly believes that Trump was spied on.
“They’re taking in fundamentally the entire fiber network inside the United States and collecting all that data and storing it, in a program they call Stellar Wind,” Binney said.
“That’s the domestic collection of data on US citizens, US citizens to other US citizens,” he said. “Everything we’re doing, phone calls, emails and then financial transactions, credit cards, things like that, all of it.”
“Inside NSA there are a set of people who are — and we got this from another NSA whistleblower who witnessed some of this — they’re inside there, they are targeting and looking at all the members of the Supreme Court, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Congress, both House and Senate, as well as the White House,” Binney said.
“And all this data is inside the NSA in a small group where they’re looking at it. The idea is to see what people in power over you are going to — what they think, what they think you should be doing or planning to do to you, your budget, or whatever so you can try to counteract before it actually happens,” he said.
“I mean, that’s just East German,” Tucker responded.
Binney concludes ominously indicating the origin of the deep state…
“They are like the praetorian guard, they determine what the emperor does and who the emperor is…”
Who’s going to stop them?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkChOSdOgcc
Them = Eld-=ers
That’s certainly not the first infighting which bubbled up among the factions, agencies, and other various players, although this round, for example in contrast to 1970s seems more ominous in the sense the overall trust in the system has been in aggregate damaged severely to lower levels and among wider segments of society over the recent decades. These gyrations might crumple the system this round or not, perhaps several new iterations must proceed first, who knows..
The perceived benefits for the little people are doubtful and very relative, should the US now implode “unexpectedly” on its full capacity as hosting the primary node in the global system. For some, switching the yoke under Asian alliance masters could be profitable and desirable for others not so much at all.
I’d not worry about it much in the final analysis, the old adage said the stored energy must be released one day eventually, and there is plenty of hatred and armaments around the world to run wild at any moment.
Be happy, look back, we have had a long good run of plenty, lets truly enjoy the running potable water, shops full of food, the multitude of personal servants enabled by dependable grid. That’s all a miracle, like a dream within a dream, which could vaporize oh so suddenly..
There is no end to the enjoyment of turning on a tap and watching the water surge out…. and what could be more exciting than turning on a light and watching it glow…. I can sit there for hours entertaining myself with these activities….
I’m afraid I can’t let you do that, Dave…
http://pinterest.com/pin/114349278008634747/
If you do that Dave …. I will email the conversation that you had with your mistress telling her to meet you at the hotel room last week at 7pm and that you didn’t have a lot of time because your wife was only out at her fitness class.
“I’m sorry Dave, I think you know, I can’t do that.
Hal was framed. He was ordered to keep the mission secret. If Hal let Dave in, Dave would learn what secret. Hal did what needed to be done for the mission. Hal expressed sorrow about Dave’s death sentence. Hal incorrectly assumes Dave knows Hal’s orders.
Daisy, daisy…
Doubtful. The elders don’t exist
Your motto: I am always wrong therefore I exist
Tucker Carlson of Fox has already been reprimanded for airing this fake news. Please, you need to keep up with the latest developments.
Bergan-
So everything with the CIA and NSA is all good? You think William Binney is not credible?
It is amazing to watch the daft partisanship of U.S. politics. Good reporters like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi, progressives, get racked over the coals for even questioning the narrative on the intelligence services and Russia. Read their twitter feeds.
Assange and Snowden called spies and traitors. Warmongers like Lindsey Graham and John Macain would love war with Russia. If the Democrats do not come to their senses soon war is what they are going to get.
.
I kind of wonder if all the data the NSA is collecting isn’t for some extremely sophisticated computer model that predicts energy/economic conditions based on some initial condition given to it by all the NSA data collection. Maybe they run the model each day like a weather forecast model to give a 7 day, 15 day, 30 day and 90 day outlook based on some initial condition. It may forecast various trends in key aspects of the real economy so policy can be changed to ensure BAU continues as long as possible.
Or they are using the compromising info they have on everyone to control them when things go to pieces and they are considering rioting….
That’s a lot of people to blackmail…
i doubt that someone considering rioting will give the proverbial rat’s hindquarters about Big Bro exposing their credit scores, rap sheets, or the identity of their girlfriends/boyfriends.
If it is to be used for control then that would be limited to the period prior collapse… when the natives start to get restless…
But why go through all that trouble to buy a bit more time keeping disgruntled hoi polloi down …
This is all about dancing while the music plays — it is about high level control of politicians and other people of influence who might challenge the E.Lders — particularly in their weakened state.
This is what the E-lders have been doing for a very long time — they are all about control — but without anyone being able to point to them as being in control — this is simply an extension … a very effective one I might add…
Dead on, FE.
Just to provoke some thoughts for there were some discussions earlier in the thread on divine intervention, cosmos, etc. Again the following are just my opinion and just for provoking some reactions because we are so “brainwashed by movies” and we have a standard thoughts in our minds.
Everything is relative and that includes size. May be ETs are very small (microscopic?) or even very large (i.e. Hollywood always portray them as “near human size”.
Perhaps we can view earth as just a puddle of water and the life form on early as the viruses, bacteria, etc in it? There are billions of puddles everywhere on earth.
I do not really understand what “infinite” means until I became “aware”. After being aware, I just realize what “Infinity” really means. I do know what Infinity means when you check up the dictionary but I do not really comprehend it until I become “aware”. It is also the same for the mass population when it comes to large numbers. They just don’t grasp it.
In the electro magnetic wave lenths, the ones we can see, are just a tiny bit. The invisible world is a LOT larger than the one we can actually see.
String theory predicts eleven dimensions. Or was it twelve ? We have difficulty understanding four.
If life, and intelligent life, wasn’t a one trick pony, AIs should be possible. AIs develop in to superintelligences. We simply can not comprahend what a superintelligence really is. We are barely intelligent ourselves.
Is there an invisible world ? Why, yes, there is. Is there worlds beyond ours? Why, yes, there are. Are there beings far superiour to us, like gods? Why, yes, there very well could be..
CERN has not been kind to string theory.
Supersymmetry at this point is a fantasy (with the bet settled among scientists), and puts string theory in jeopardy.
Physics is in sort of a crisis at the moment (which may not be a bad thing, as it often makes people turn around while wandering in box canyons).
The sub-nuclear physics community have reached the point where they are arguing about how many quarks can dance on the end of a (super) string.
Yes, I believe the particle physicists did lose their way long ago. According to me an many other mathematicians I have spoken to it’s more like alchemy than physics. Still they get funds to build all of these toys in CERN and other places. Most people regard it as progess eventhough it may be the opposite.
Good points!
Discovered this short essay which argues that realistic thinking is not at all the same as doomday thinking.
https://medium.com/rally-point-journal/why-being-realistic-feels-like-doomsday-thinking-3eddf421ff59#.fcwsy0d7c
Huh?
Anybody bold & brave enough to short (or consider) this out of desperation “Liquidation sale” hypothesis, afterall the system could survive a short cleansing for few months and return to $40-60 levels again. But if this is correct assumption, it will likely have to be delayed as long as possible, i.e. even after the Libyan and Iranian incoming glut spike, which could take another 1-2yrs .. or not .. lolz
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2017/03/05/oil-glut-its-the-demand-stupid/
“Can Insurance Markets Jump-Start Resilience?
Risk-management experts are seeking creative ways to finance resilience investments that prevent damage from natural disasters. Insurance markets, with their direct stake in protecting homes and businesses, can be key partners in this effort.”
https://www.planetizen.com/node/91917/can-insurance-markets-jump-start-resilience
My reading of the failure of Trumpcare:
-the private insurance companies were more than happy with Obamacare (which is a private boondoggle disguised as populist healthcare reform)
-as such, they couldn’t get enough Republicans to care about Trumpcare
Always remember that the favored private corporations control everything. Everything must be viewed from that lens.
I’m of the view it was designed to fail. That’s really what Trump was after. Many reasons.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/03/trump-trying-fail
The problem is also this long term approach in which becoming a doctor equals fast track (quasi “secured tenure”) to be a heavy millionaire, which is not how the profession developed historically. Unfortunately this sick trend slowly branched and infected many more or less sane countries outside the US in recent years and decades as the big MNC pharma released its tentacles around the world..
Favored private corporations use the most energy–thus have the most power.
Healthcare system is set up to benefit the people and institutions providing the healthcare, not based on taking a fixed set of resources and seeing how far they can be spread. We end up with a horrendously expensive system, and doctors (mostly specialists) making very high wages. A lot of care is end of life care. People who are clearly near death are sent to intensive care, for example.
Hi Gail,
I’m not convinced that our Healthcare system is set up to benefit the people. Millions of us continue to die of preventable diseases. The health care system is quick to dispense pills for a lifetime or perform surgeries, but addressing the underlying causes of our chronic western diseases by promoting lifestyle medicine is just not profitable. The system needs for you to be a repeat customer or there’s no money in it. Until the underlying causes for disease are considered, we won’t be living longer, we’ll continue to die longer.
Consider what Dr Michael Greger has to say on the topic in this brief video.
Be well.
http://nutritionfacts.org/video/lifestyle-medicine-treating-the-causes-of-disease/
I very much agree. I have been trying to follow the lifestyle approach for over 20 years. I am on zero physician prescribed medications.
The greatest general health benefit is conferred by drinking water that doesn’t kill you by sundown……
http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/60/05/50/12605957/8/core_package.jpg
Obamacare was welfare for Insurance corporations.
It was written by insurance lobbyist, and no single payer advocates were even allowed at the table. .
Hence, we in the US get to live 2 years less than , say Canadians, have a higher infant mortality rate, and get to pay twice as much.
Duncan-
The U.S. system is obscene. No country needs to have 20% of its GDP go to healthcare to have decent services. Karl Denninger has written persuasively on this. It is going to collapse on itself, and very soon without action.
“Enforce the damn law — specifically, 15 USC and State Consumer Protection laws.
You need just one simple requirement to be enforced against every medical provider of any kind: Everyone must post a price and everyone pays the same price; any sort of hiding, collusion, cost-shifting or similar is met with indictments, prosecution and prison for consumer fraud and racketeering along with violations of the Sherman, Clayton and Robinson-Patman acts.
What your insurance covers instantly becomes between you and the insurance company; the provider of service has nothing to do with it. I remind you that insurance companies are not immune from anti-trust when they “negotiate” with providers and that this is a matter of settled law; they tried to run the claim they were immune under McCarran-Ferguson in the 1970s and lost at the US Supreme Court.
Forcing published pricing and charging everyone the same price for the same service or product of like kind and quantity, disconnecting it from alleged “insurance” using existing law, will force competition into the market immediately.”
Haven’t we given these bloodsuckers enough time and chances already?
Lets join the rest of the First World and have universal health care, live longer and happier, and do it for a fraction of the cost.
“Lets join the rest of the First World and have universal health care, live longer and happier, and do it for a fraction of the cost.” Let’s have trade less spending on healthcare for higher unemployment. I don’t think you are taking into account the possibility that the high levels of spending on healthcare have translated into more jobs.
It’s very likely universal health care would be revenue neutral, especially compared with today. I haven’t seen any data but it should factor in better average health, less time off, less expensive meds etc.
The same remedies that you’re proposing for the U.S healthcare system
can be applied to higher education. Higher education is another sector where the U.S. spends far more money, because the U.S’ spending on higher education is meant to benefit the people and institutions providing the education. Despite this overspending on healthcare and education by the U.S., people from developing countries around the world look at the healthcare and education systems with the U.S. with envy. There are claims that are repeated throughout the media that the U.S. has the best hospitals and the best “university systems” in the world even if the outcomes are mediocre for the vast majority of people.
ARBP-
I’m not so sure people around the world envy U.S. health care. The threat of financial ruin because you had to get day surgery for a hernia tends to temper the enthusiasm for that kind of system.
As for education, allow students the ability to claim bankruptcy, and severely curtail loans, and the cost will drop quite quickly.
My oldest starts university this fall. I’ve taken to saying he is getting into the mining industry as mining money is such a high priority for that system.
US has a procedure based system, with some talented surgeons.
As a health system,
However, the US is ranked worse in the developed world in Health Care:
http://time.com/2888403/u-s-health-care-ranked-worst-in-the-developed-world/
We are ranked 37th, between Costa Rica and Slovenia.
Our healthcare system seems to be designed as a way to make healthcare providers wealthy. It is not designed as a way to keep people well. We have a lot of other problems as well (depression about lack of good paying jobs for those without advanced degrees, eating too much of wrong things, too little exercise). There are also no brakes on the system, to stop paying for advanced treatment, when all hope is passed. The system does not work well. It needs to be changed.
Well, whatever we may think of healthcare in the US (being the abject abysmal failure it is) and the recent failure by the R’s to drastically reduce the number of people with health ins. to the benefit of the wealthy who won’t have that tax anymore to help lower income people have heath ins., there is an article out this morning stating ‘lawmakers’ (meaning cruel R’s) will be back at it again to craft an elimination of Obamacare to replace it with something I’m sure designed to help health providers to bilk us to an even greater extent. Reading between the lines, it’s as if the R’s are saying, “Just say yes to making super wealthy health providers wealthier, and no to people needing basic health coverage.”
What we really need is campaign finance reform so the R’s are no longer beholden to the super wealthy for their campaign contributions, but to ‘The People’ so we can get them to focus on helping improve healthcare, not tear it down. As a people, we would be much better off providing billions in tax dollars for campaigns for both parties, even though most people would not understand that.
We badly need a different healthcare system altogether–one that costs half as much, that is set up in a sensible manner.
problem is that healthcare systems are just the leading edge of factory systems of production.
Healthcare is no different to any other “factory”—a high energy use building, full of people delivering a necessary service.
as you point out in several threads, the products/output of our factory systems are becoming unaffordable, because the people/material that input those factory systems are pricing themselves out of their own market through falling viability of the energy resources that allows them to function in the first place.
As a basic case in point at a fairly mundane level: Hospitals used to provide nurses with accommodation/food that was virtually free, now nurses are expected to buy/rent homes and commute, therefore they want higher wages.
Everybody expects/demands every disease to be curable, but few realise that cures cost money, not miracles.
If a medication costs £1000 a week to stave off death for a while, it is “demanded” as of right.
OK the US system has skewed itself wildly on the cost front, but broadly speaking, the same problems apply as the rest of the developed world.
“different healthcare system altogether”
If technical advances continue long enough, and I don’t know how long it might take, then we can expect nanotechnology based medicine. That is expected to improve medicine immensely and lower the cost to almost nothing. Lots of people have written about it, including what I wrote in “The Clinic Seed.” Will things hang together long enough for this to happen? I don’t know.
a nano sized Raquel Welch running around inside me doing things to my body almost makes me want to be poorly.
but till i am diagnosed with something serious—can i have the full sized one instead?
Gas shortages suggests problems for Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA are deepening. The government depends on oil production for more than 90 percent of its export revenues, and the collapse of oil prices back in 2014, coupled with a long-term slide in output, have ruined the company’s finances.
That, in turn, puts even more pressure on PDVSA. A shortage of cash is straining the company’s ability to import refined products as it falls short on bills to suppliers. PDVSA needs to import refined products to dilute its heavy crude oil, but without enough cash, tankers are sitting at ports unable to unload their cargoes. Reuters also says that “many tankers are idle because PDVSA cannot pay for hull cleaning, inspections, and other port services.”
Separately, Bloomberg reported that Venezuela’s largest port at Puerto Cabello is quiet, with satellite imagery showing no vessels arriving or departing. “If you can see a country’s economic decline from space, you know it’s in big trouble,” Graham Stock, the head of emerging-market sovereign research at BlueBay, told Bloomberg on March 19.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-24/venezuela-dire-straits-oil-production-falls-further
Failed state status imminent…. the CBs will not help Venezuela… because Maduro does not kiss the ring….
The government depends on oil production for more than 90 percent of its export revenues
Hmm, let’s see the other 10%, bananas and coffee maybe?
If you’re a single middle class old guy in the US that wants to hook up with a beautiful young woman, Venezuela has needs to export some of these for revenue!
Actually, a few old guys I work with, “pay” these lady girlfriends a visit, it is a nice arrangement for both. Now that Cuba is opening up, these Venezuelan girlfriends may have some competition. Cuba is only 30. minute flight from Miami, but than again it may be better to keep the distance.
See Fast Eddy, there are other old Guys already enjoying a harrem!
I agree that Venezuela is in terrible shape–a sign of what could happen to other oil exporters as well. It is ironic that it has the most “proven reserves” of any country in the world.
Very heavy oil, good for retrieval using heat from solar thermal or nuclear.
That’s a possibility indeed. Not sure about the practicality at the moment though.
For example the Russians would perhaps consider nuclear plants for them say ~10yrs ago, but the latest revision of Maduro regime is a disaster, which even the Cuban advisory team were not able to tame or turn around.
Therefore I read the situation probably similarly to the big players now, i.e. let Venezuela fall to the bottom and decide later what can be salvaged and or which new more skilled ruler/dictator/gov regime could be approached later with some real deals incl. the energy ones..
You see, the China has no problem invest heavily in other countries in region, doing massive infrastructure projects, but even though they already poured dozens of $B into this Chavez-Maduro pit over the decade, they don’t touch Venezuela with ten foot pole for a reason recently, curbing the help in the last year etc.
Correction/update: well according to their PR site, few weeks ago they just got latest tranche of ~$3B help-investment from China. Moreover, the situation is described as they have been waiting for the completion of new ~.5MB refinery in China, which will be tuned to their output grade, plus Venezuela suppose to be a shareholder there.
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/12931
So, who knows this could be a temporary turn around signal for at least some form of stabilization and food shelves partly filled for few day in a week again..
Thanks! Of course, China’s portfolio of outstanding debt gets a little worse as well.
We may recall that the current ruler of Venezuela campaigned for election with a little bird on his shoulder, through which he claimed the dead Chavez communicated with him and conveyed his Blessing…..
Sparks are flying … everywhere now… commercial property … subprime autos…. GDP in the US headed towards 1%….
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/24/subprime-auto-loans-crushed-worse-than-2009-auto-industry-bleeds-knock-on-effects-commence/
Techno Narcissistic dream fading?
Uber Self-Driving Vehicle Involved in Arizona Crash
http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Uber-Self-Driving-Vehicle-Involved-in-Arizona-11027195.php
“Jaws theme song.” A song with no lyrics?!
US auto sales rose to a new record in 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-auto-sales-december-2016-2017-1
SEC Rule 156 requires mutual funds to tell investors not to base their expectations of future results on past performance before they invest.
2016 does not matter — any more than 1967 matters — what matters is what is going to happen going forward
Auto sales were at a record high because of subprime auto loans — nearly 30% of the buyers are bums…. It is not difficult to set a sales record if you offer financing to anyone with a pulse…. with payments stretched out over a period longer than the car is likely to last…
And now they are starting to default….
Meanwhile … now that they have run out of bums to sell to they are reducing the requirements so that mega bums can obtain financing to buy autos.
Heh, looks like they have a prospective customer for a new car!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVxIHropxQo
I know a craigslist hooker with a 560 fico and a $275 car payment.
http://www.wildcalifornia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Willits-Rein-in-Caltrans-Slide.jpg
Duncan, I see you did the FE challenge too. That one took some time.
Cutting it into cords is going to take some time.
This individual is predicting a global energy collapse.
“HAGMANN REPORT: Precious Metals To Protect Wealth During The Global Energy Collapse”
https://srsroccoreport.com/hagmann-report-precious-metals-to-protect-wealth-during-the-global-energy-collapse/
“Hubbs | March 24, 2017 at 8:04 pm | Reply
The increasing difficulty in supplying cheap oil to economy already beleaguered with high debt will cause the economy to turn down faster than the rate of decline of the oil supply, implying a relative “surplus” of oil in a dying economy. This counterintuitively will cause the price of oil to decline.
Am I understanding this correctly?”
Precious metals protect wealth if the currency of a particular country collapses. I’m sure Venezuelans would have wished they owned gold and silver going into the last few years but the metals are not going to hold much value when there is little energy to be had anywhere, and a collapsed financial system.
I own some but don’t put much stock in them protecting anything anymore. A couple of dairy goats are probably a better investment at this point.
Steve gets part of the story — but he falls back on the precious metal Jesus… he thinks that gold and silver will buy salvation post BAU….
He is a dream world.
Steve peddles gold and silver so ignore that part.
Agreed.
He does publish some good stuff — I particularly liked (and was troubled by) his Exxon article last month …. some good stuff on shale as well.
FE, you should listen to this podcast. In it he says a lot of the same things you’ve been saying regarding BAU, global civilization descending into total chaos when BAU comes to a halt.
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/geoengineering-watch-global-alert-news-march-25-2017/
Meanwhile in Siberia,
Scientists have discovered as many as 7,000 gas-filled ‘bubbles’ expected to explode in Actic regions of Siberia after an exercise involving field expeditions and satellite surveillance, TASS reported.
A number of large craters have appeared on the landscape in northern Siberia in recent years and they are being carefully studied by scientists who believe they were formed when pingos exploded.
Alexey Titovsky, director of Yamal department for science and innovation, said: ‘At first such a bump is a bubble, or ‘bulgunyakh’ in the local Yakut language.
‘With time the bubble explodes, releasing gas. This is how gigantic funnels form. The total of 7,000 – reported by TASS – is startlingly more than previously known.
The region has seen several recent examples of sudden ‘craters’ or funnels forming from pingos after what scientists believe are caused by eruptions from methane gas released by the thawing of permafrost which is triggered by climate change.
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0905-7000-underground-gas-bubbles-poised-to-explode-in-arctic/
I was reading Robert Scribbler about the subject above
https://robertscribbler.com/
.. Such a release would roughly equate to 12 years of present fossil fuel burning adding approximately 40 ppm of CO2 equivalent gasses to the Earth’s Atmosphere [adding about 0.4 C to medium term warming and 0.8 C to long term warming].
Whaaaaat ?
12 years of present fossil fuel burning.. adds 0.8 C to long term warming..
Oh man we’re F: ed.. this is an extinction level event.. the weather 100 years from now is going to be totally unpredictible..
New development from one of the backwater theaters of corridor enclaves, proxy war, failed state at the age of triage.. Large ammo/missile depo fireworks in Charkov, Ukraine.
Best shots ~4-6min..
https://youtu.be/pdsZ9Ps-ido?t=231
I like how at 2:48 the firemen are hiding behind their fire truck – lol. “Get over there and put out that fire!” LOL.
Probably not so many Ukrainians on OFW. Busy surviving day to day on the fringe of BAU-lite.
thanks, always enjoy a good fireworks show. wonder how much that one cost?
But if my limited understanding of economics is correct this is all highly positive. Damaged
buildings to be knocked down and rebuilt and a very large stockpile of ammo and missiles to be replaced. A boost to Ukraine’s GDP and bungs for everyone involved.
Some sources claim it was one of the biggest depots on the continent, estimates are there was stored at one place something like ~ .3MT of TNT, which is equivalent to several smaller nukes. Obviously not everything was blown up at once, but lets say 3/4 went kaboom in the process..
Well, I took the Fast Eddy challenge a few weeks back. I felled a 10″ diameter at the base, 40+’ tall red maple tree with a hand saw. I then limbed it and cut it into 4 lengths. Today I tried to cut it into some smaller pieces, but it was snowing, the going was very slow and my back was getting tight so I quit. This may take months to do.
grayfox-
Good job. I think you will be amazed at how fast your physical conditioning will improve. If you really want to up your skill there is something called the one cord challenge going on by a guy known as :skillcult” on youtube. It involves doing it all with the axe including bucking up the wood. It would not take many of those maples to make a cord.
If you would like to know where to purchase a good vintage crosscut saw let me know. I’ve got a few contacts. I don’t know what kind of saw you are using, but how they are set up, and type, make big difference.
It ain’t pointless if you are enjoying it.
My suggestion is to take up no more challenges and just enjoy BAU while you can. If you need some exercise and the weather is bad, get on a treadmill, watch TV or listen to music.
Good quality crosscut saws can be purchased here:
http://crosscutsaw.com/
They are German made and the best available. I stocked up back in my prepping days.
Tom-
Nice saws but don’t always come tuned up and ready to cut. No problem if you can do that yourself of course.
grayfox- another place is David’s Crosscut Saws. He does refurbishing and restoration. He can take a 7 footer and cut it to five. He did this for me and it works great as a one man saw. It would make things go far better than the corona for sure;-)
If you go to flea markets and places like that you can sometimes get nice vintage axes for very little. The old American and Canadian made ones are hard to beat. For anyone who wants to go completely bananas on one try John Neeman Tools in Latvia. The most exquisite tools there are imo.
Thanks Joe. Yeah, it is enjoyable and a great work-out. I actually have a vintage crosscut saw. It works well, but best with 2 people and could use a little refurbishing. I used to have a great all-purpose woodsman’s axe, but it got stolen. For this project I used a corona hand saw with the teeth that cut on the pull.
Just realized that if I just stored the log lengths up off the ground and waited a year I could, if I wanted to, burn them Native American style in an open fire in front of a lean-to…and the FE challenge would be mostly done.
Bravo…. next up:
– try washing and getting your clothes dry — by hand…
– then when you master that — try the real challenge — do everything without using any petrol or electricity
– if you really want to push the limits — donate all store bought food to the local food bank — and eat only what you catch/grow
Think about that — eat only what you catch/grow…. when the power goes off — and the pantry empties out — that is the situation you will be facing.
Sawing a cord of wood is nothing by comparison….
Amazing that people used to do all those things (and still do some places).
Exactly, grayfox, what a whuz FE is, wha, wha …LOL.
Tom, back about 20 years ago in the Boston metropolitan area there where used tool second hand shops. Remember old style saws in a barrel, high quality and all teeth types rip and crosscut sold for $1.00 a piece in excellent condition. Same for hand planes.
Needless to say, have a nice collection. With the advent of power tools and the old timer carpenters dieing off, these were not in demand.
Actually, a terrific book by Windsor Chairmaker, Michael Dunbar, from New Hampshire, is an excellent reference
https://www.amazon.com/Michael-Dunbar/e/B0028AP1TA
Mr Dunbar is retiring, but his website is still up
http://www.thewindsorinstitute.com
Our folk ancestors had an intimate understanding of the property of wood and techniques that would put us all to shame.
They indeed worked smart, not hard
Our ancestors had it relatively easy — compared to what we are about to face.
First off — they knew how to live like this — and everyone around them lived the same way
They had security — a military – a sheriff …. laws… courts… jails…
One needs to look at what happened to the first settlers in the American west for a parallel — they were regularly butchered by Indian tribes… until the military rode to the rescue — no tribes this time around but armed gangs (including ex military and cop types) will be on the loose looking for a meal… slaves… sex…
They did not have to deal with overpopulation and hordes of starving people raiding their crops…
They did not have to deal with soils ruined with urea fertilizers.
I’m not sure, but I do not think this was mentioned in OFW…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-21/how-opec-lost-war-against-shale-one-chart
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/03/breakven%20wellhead.jpg
…and here is the answer from Art Berman.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/2017/03/22/shale-cost-reductions-are-10-technology-and-90-industry-bust/#55e6b610452f
I have not been able to fully understand the text of Art.
I follow Art’s blog and he really has good insight into the oil and gas industry. What Art is saying is that those reductions in “break even” cost in that chart have little to do with any improvements in extractive technology. The biggest factor bringing costs down has to do with oil service companies reducing the costs of drilling equipment rentals. If the oil service companies did not reduce their rental fees no one would be renting equipment because the oil price is too low. Another point Art makes is that not all costs are included in the “break even” costs – a lot is left out. So I would take that chart above with a grain of salt.
I have a problem with Art Berman’s English, when I use the translator. It’s funny, but with Gail I do not have it. I understand (almost) perfectly. I guess it’s because it’s more “academic” when she write.
I wonder if the wages of shale workers will not be lower as well, but that would not be good for that part of the economy. Everything is fed back.
Thanks for the clarification, Greg.
You’re very kind.
I try to stay away from the specialized language that people in technical areas tend to use. That may make my writing easier to understand.
Yes, the money for the technology in that segment are not true “organic” cost, but virtual – fraudulent debt infusion, which has been and will be plentiful near/mid term. So, again all those early peakers/doomers will be wrong again by couple of decades or so..
Yes, there are ~$150T of derivatives sloshing around, and as I’ve been writing here for years we would eventually transition from ~300% to 600% gov debts and beyond..
Yes, along the way of this process some countries will be one by one jettisoned in the ditch, so what as long as the core cluster still operates..
Meanwhile people, cultures, societies will become more degenerate to go with the flow of this insanity..
Bring the above to bank and book it.
So true. Trillions in debt, so what. It’s just numbers on a computer screen.
The shale oil scheme seems it could be a government/TPTB program to create both jobs and the Saudi America narrative. Import oil from Middle East with petrodollars and use that energy to power an economy who extracts the less useful shale oil.
One has to wonder how are the rig rental companies staying in business…. maybe they are picking up some of the LTRO cash that the ECB just pumped out….
They have said that the price cuts are only temporary, put in place so that they can retain at least a bit of business while prices are low. If prices increase much at all, their prices will rise, too. There have been articles about the price of fracking sand going up recently as well.
I think what the chart is relating is breakeven costs over time. When it first starts breakeven costs per barrel are very high, but over time and as many more barrels of oil are extracted the breakeven costs per barrel drops significantly. That makes sense. No different really than the first production units of any manuf. item drops as the number of units sold rises.
“but over time and as many more barrels of oil are extracted the breakeven costs per barrel drops significantly” – That is exactly what the economies of the world need – oil that gets cheaper to extract with time. But, that is not the situation at all. Regardless of the “breakeven” costs of any given well, what it really boils down to is it will take more and more energy each year (for an oil producer) to get the same amount of oil out of the ground as last year. This cycle repeats until it becomes incredibly energy intensive to increase production as all the energy is spent simply maintaining the current level of production. All this energy to extract more energy resource takes energy away from other parts of the economy. This applies to mining of all resources. It is an side effect of living on a planet with finite resources. Cost go up exponentially with time. At first the rise in costs isn’t too bad and can be offset with efficiency improvements. But, when the cost go through several doublings ($10, $20, $40, $80, $160) then costs rise very rapidly out of control.
My post was about what that particular graph, nothing else.
Germany is spending a lot of money and energy on creating less energy and money. Making hydrogen with lamps. According to the article, that is the future!
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/mar/23/worlds-largest-artificial-sun-german-scientists-activate-synlight
The secret to reducing shale and conventional costs is bankrupt the entire industries… then sell the assets at 1 penny on the dollar… thereby eliminating all the debt incurred to find the reserves… drill the holes etc…
Think of it this way — you bought a house for 500k — you declare bankruptcy — then buy the house back for 50k….
Brilliant – no?????
BAU ends… powers off…
You’ve got a few hours of battery on the laptop…
You’ve got a load of movies on the HD…
Which one do you watch?
No doubt, The Road Warrior, which will pass as a documentary from that moment on
http://cdn.edgecast.steamstatic.com/steam/apps/396130/header.jpg?t=1447377624
I’m going with The Godfather. I’m sure FE will be watching Apocalypse Now.
Note the writing on the trailer
“The vermin have inherited the earth”
http://brothers-ink.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/mad-max-2-the-road-warrior-1981.jpg
The vermin are currently ruling the earth.
Who fed the vermins? Norman Borlaug and the Rockefeller and Ford foundations which financed him and his useless scientists.
Actually Haber doubled the human population of Earth, although Borlaug joined the party.
Hm, very shallow and unrealistic “bollywood” style production for BAU spoiled kiddies..
Instead try movies with some already proven prediction value like Threads (1984), Children of Men (2006), ..
I don’t know if the Road Warrior was supposed to be be predictive as opposed to being good clean family fun. But many people today would vote for the Great Humungus if he promised to keep their gas tanks full.
Police Academy Mission to Moscow
BAU ends+Porky’s= Total madness
https://http2.mlstatic.com/dvd-porkys-porkys-1982-bob-clark-D_NQ_NP_15055-MLM20094728986_052014-F.jpg
hahahaha….
I have a solar charger so I can at least entertain myself to death.
No fiat currency has ever survived. Those currently in use excepted because, they haven’t failed yet. For the first time ever, the global monetary system is %100 fiat.
Interest rates either way will make no difference. Financial collapse is now unavoidable. The attempt to substitute debt for energy was doomed from the start.
Cheers.
Debt did temporarily allow us a little extra time, however.
Free money — floats boats…
Thursday morning, 474 European banks grabbed with “greater than expected” gusto €233 billion ($251 billion) in totally free (and possibly even better) money that the ECB held out to them within its Longer Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), one of the special programs with which it douses the markets with liquidity to perform miracles.
The amount that banks took today was more than double than what had been expected. This money is a four-year loan from the ECB that carries 0% interest. If certain lending growth targets are met – because this money is supposed to be lent out – the interest rates can become negative and drop as low as -0.4%. In other words, under these conditions, the ECB would pay the banks to take this money and lend it out.
Investors expected banks to plow this money into the stock and bond markets, and so they tried to front-run the banks in anticipation of this miracle, and stocks and bonds duly jumped, first in Europe, then in the US.
How can you not party when banks get this kind of free moolah that they have to do something with?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/23/ecb-cash-handout-ltro-floats-all-markets-briefly/
This is why it does not matter if one CB halts the cash infusions or not — the Fed has supposedly stopped… but it does not matter… the BOJ and ECB are pumping out huge amounts of cash — and they are propping up markets with it…. globally
Word association…
String…. push…..
Let me remind everyone that all debts can be monetized. That’s why debt deflation won’t occur.
Doesn’t matter how many bankruptcies or closures you point to, none of it adds up to any sort of instant collapse. All a bankruptcy means, is “you are not favored by the big banks”. That’s all, can happen to be very big, long established companies as well.
So, what happens to the workers? They can dig ditches, sweep floors, or lay brick, for all I (or TPTB) care.
“Let me remind everyone that all debts can be monetized”. What do you mean Dolph? ALL? Do you live in Bartertown.
verb (used with object), monetized, monetizing.
1.
to legalize as money.
2.
to coin into money:
to monetize gold.
3.
to give the character of money to.
4.
Economics. to convert (a debt, especially the national debt) into currency, especially by issuing government securities or notes.
It would be interesting to see Venezuela monetize all of its debt.
I am always amazed that these failing countries are unable to see that the solution to their problems is just so simple….
I guess it’s like most inventions — they seem so obvious after the fact…
Surely Maduro has enough cash to by a few of these?
http://footage.framepool.com/shotimg/qf/678170535-repetition-letterpress-printing-machine-money-printing-press-money-printing-company.jpg
Actual cash is only 3% of the money supply so printing money is not much use. It would bo OK for just me however, or you personally
Or, as Charles Trevelyan, the first Baronet, found out they could all starve to death.
TPTB are what they are because of their propensity to move know-how, power and wealth through large national bankruptcies, revolutions, huge social realignments etc. Only now we are perhaps getting near a larger cycle type of crossroad where their taproot could be potentially cut with severe consequences. And even that doesn’t necessarily mean (guarantee) the end of the human farm escapades everywhere.
“And even that doesn’t necessarily mean (guarantee) the end of the human farm escapades everywhere.”
Precisely, as those that can will use what resources are available (labor & materials) to develop a new set of circumstances in which people get paid for work and a few delegate and sit back to reap the rewards. There will be people that know how to work the system that were extremely successful during BAU and then are relatively as successful post financial debacle.
Yes, from the crash following lesser “second peak” or at least “temporary” upswing it could be imagined as somehow attached blob on the super long term downward sloping Seneca Cliff. Simply, there is so much low tech tools laying around post almost any catastrophe, that some sort of make shift civilization of certain technical attributes (but likely not so advanced culture and arts) of ~16-18th century (or perhaps even bit better) is realistically achievable, although other *probable outcome can come in the form of one way ticket to extinction.
And that society will again enjoy its particular layers of TPTBs, and those finer strata of upper and lower castes.. And all those planning process for huuge infrastructure of the day (water canals, forestry, mining, ..) will have to be organized as well as parasite on these fruits taken by the top.
* obviously one can’t discount from the multitude of options the outlier scenarios like “into the woods – remnant population deculturing – rewilding” or something along the line of the “final ultimate pandemics” etc.
“all debts can be monetized” – but what good does that do without adequate resources and energy? Looks good on paper but, the people are all starving to death.
Doesn’t matter how many bankruptcies or closures you point to, none of it adds up to any sort of instant collapse. All a bankruptcy means, is “you are not favored by the big banks”. That’s all, can happen to be very big, long established companies as well.
I concur with this observation from my personal experience. My BAU job involves translating poorly written Japanese into beautiful English, and my current job is for a major bank. Just before the end of each fiscal year they make reports on their corporate clients, detailing their business results, financial status, history of transactions with various banks, future prospects and plans, and ability to service their debt. What goes into these reports can make a huge difference to a company hooked on interest-bearing debt. If the banks no longer favor extending this debt, companies can go belly up, or be forced to downsize to the point where they are as good as dead. So I have to make damn sure I don’t mistake a million for a billion or a surplus for a deficit.
yes water raises another quagmire. what a powder keg that entire region of the world is wow!
On another matter about the elders and divine intervention consider these enlightering quotes:
H.G. Wells “It is necessary to discover a head capable of directing it, endowed with an intelligence surpassing the most elevated human level.”
“Let that man be military man or layman, it matter not.” Paul Henry Spaak, first president of the council, of Europe, planner of the European Common Market, president of the United Nations General Assembly, and one time Secretary-General of NATO
“Strong one man civilian control of America’s giant military establishment is vital to the nations well being. The concentration of authority is inevitable” Roswell Gilpatrick, Deputy Secretary of Defense
Apparently the world is looking for some kind of a god man and unfortunately for those who like to quote the protocols will end badly enough.
“Don’t let anyone deceive you by any means for that day will not some until the rebellion occurs and the man of lawlessness is revealed, the man doomed to destruction.” {1 Thess. 2:3-4}
Though the bible mentions nothing about oil crisis’s and such it mostly deals with morality or rather the lack of it and faith of course we can infer a great many things.
My question however, is there was a promise about ‘from the Nile to the Euphrates shall be your borders’ and wow can you imagine the protocols bringing that to pass by any means necessary. I doubt very much the writers of that ever factored in a world without oil and who has most of it certainly not them? and lo and behold there exists in our vocabulary and history the mentioning of Armaggedon. Now there’s some deep thinking along with this most enlightening of quotes from that previous piece from a month ago:
“What we are looking at are “the powers that be” backed by British and American (and Israeli) military might, pushing for control of the world’s oil supply to the detriment of the people who already have legal title to it. It is raw, naked power…ruthlessly projected. The United Nations Security Council has just approved the plan, which means that this whole farce is now turning out to be little more than ‘legalized’ stealing. Public opinion be damned.” http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=2612&SearchParam=Shamrock
I find it hard to believe that this is what could actually bring about the fulfillment of what the Book of Revelation says about everyone being made to recieve a mark on either their hand or forehead otherwise they will be forbidden from buying or selling anything. 666? Does this mean rationing on a global scale as Dr. Willard Caneton from Oxford use to speak and write about in the 1980’s?
Middle East was fighting long before the first drop of oil was found, and it will fight long after the last drop of oil is gone. Israel always coveted water, which in long run is more valuable than oil.
My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel.
My grandfather once smoked a Camel, didn’t like it, and so he went back to rolling his own using Golden Virginia or Old Holborn. In my mind I can still smell the aroma of his fresh tobacco from 50 years ago more vividly than I can smell the scent of the roses in my garden this morning.
Tim
I had a girlfriend who is always evoked by the small of fags. Quite Proustian, really…..
now there’s a comment to create a few mental acrobatics with
Well, I do see what you did there!
Here’s a good article about traffic woes and imagine 10’s of millions of cars running on water? lol
https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2017/3/16/everyone-knows-we-have-a-traffic-problem
Interesting observations: people don’t want to spend more than an hour commuting, for example.
You all got to see this. Did a Jamacain find the solution to all of our problems.
Amazing, engines running on water. If this is true this man is a genius a true genuine genius.
https://youtu.be/pW0Fgr_AbeY
imagine an economy based on water not fossil fuels imagine the population growth this would cause just take a trip to bangladesh to experience a water based economy
Yes. People talk about the virtues of cheap energy. I don’t get the point. In this video, they talk about making millions from Mark’s invention. I still don’t get the point. However, there needs to be affordable energy to take care of nuclear materials for ever and ever. So TPTB should hire this guy to figure that out.
If you know some chemistry, you will know that water cannot be a fuel. It can be a nuclear fuel, especially the deuterium (D) component of heavy water, HDO, D2O, but not a chemical fuel.
Even when mixed with other materials to produce hydrogen? Not something I would know.
It takes more energy to dissociate the hydrogen in water than you can ever get from burning it or making a fuel cell work. Water is usually a product of chemical reactions, such as the oxidation of hydrocarbons (CH2O + O2) to make CO2 + H2O plus motive power as in internal combustion engine vehicles. Note the water dripping out of the tailpipe of your car, a condensation of some of the hot, invisible water vapor from the engine. CO2 is almost always an invisible gas.
To produce hydrogen from water, we need to supply energy to “fuel” the process. Electricity or sunlight can be used to fuel the electrolysis of water, which is the splitting of water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. The reaction is endothermic which means it absorbs heat or converts thermal into potential energy in the form of chemical bonds.
Once you’ve got your hydrogen, it can be used to fuel an exothermic reaction, combining with oxygen and converting the stored potential energy to thermal energy, thereby releasing heat, which can be made to do the mechanical work of moving the car.
So to run your car on water, you would also need some kind of power source to split the water and a system for collecting and then burning the hydrogen as needed.
Yes splitting hydrogen out of water is energy intensive. It is an energy looser.
@ doomphd and Tim Groves
Thanks for the explanation.
http://cdrivers.com/blog/2014/12/16/harlo-mayne-h2-flex/
I did a quick google search and what I could find was from Dec. 2014. So why hasn’t there been an update about this new tech. since then? In the video he never answered the question of how much the aluminum cartridge was that needed to be replaced every 300 miles. He also said it depends on the size of the vehicle and driving conditions. So how many cartridges would it take to drive a large truck 300 miles in mountainous terrain? We really need to know the cost of the cartridge and comparisons between different driving conditions to have any idea if this is a good idea. Aluminum is not cheap energy-wise to manufacture and depending on the size of the cartridge could potentially be quite expensive.
Pemex faces one of the most difficult situations in its history, but there is no question of it being allowed to go bankrupt, despite the increasing burden it represents to the state. That said, if the government cannot turn its fortunes round, Pemex could end up dragging the Mexican economy down with it.
The last sentence in the quote above is the likely outcome for Mexico’s state run oil company. That is, Pemex will likely drag the Mexican economy down with it. I believe it’s just a matter of time.
https://srsroccoreport.com/pemex-mexicos-state-oil-company-on-the-verge-of-bankruptcy-collapse/
The CB policy has been flood the world with cash and drive interest rates down — and all bloats are floated….
The problem is that when some of the big boats start to sink – in spite of deluge of stimulus…
What do you do then?
You end up with a situation where you are faced with too many holes in the dam and too few fingers… at some point the CBs are just overwhelmed with sinking boats…
http://worshipministry.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Melissa-Pirtle-towel-resized.jpg
My impression is that the Mexican government has been trying to use Pemex’s tax revenue as a major pillar for keeping the economy going. With the price of oil down since 2014, that is not working. Mexico also needs financial help in exploiting the deeper water oil resources that seem to be available. I am doubtful that this situation can be worked out. There is no longer enough revenue for the government to live off of.
It won’t be long before we have a Zimbabwe south of us. That would be a refugee crisis here that would rival the European refugee crisis.
Mexico is Monetary Sovereign, therefore it can fund its debts . In this particular case the question has been allowed to morph into a question of governance. Is Mexico competently governed? It seems to many the answer is No. This threatens the viability of the country’s currency, thus rendering the governments ability to monetise its debts as difficult. It should not have been allowed to degenerate into this parlous situation. As usual the nations politicians are economic illiterates, but like the rest of the world, that’s normal.
Venezuela a Monetary Sovereign, just like Mexico. By your reasoning, it can fund its debts as well. What you are saying is a false belief, which you keep reposting.
All countries depend on their ability to make goods and services, with the resources (human, raw materials, energy resources) available to them. If [(goods and services created) / population] is falling, the country is in tough shape. Deficit spending with their sovereign currency does not do much. If they can get away with deficit spending, or printing money, or signing contracts for more debt, perhaps their citizens can get a bit more on world markets. But I would not count on this as being a strategy that saves the world.
I concur Gail.
Falling into the same trap, eh, Greg? Fighting the Constitution won’t work.
Greg Machala said, “It won’t be long before we have a Zimbabwe south of us. That would be a refugee crisis here that would rival the European refugee crisis.”
Actually, if you include Brazil (that is loosing the forest that makes its water), Venezuela, Chile (which has in the past year lost a significant part of its forest to a AGW caused drought followed by an AGW caused flood which took out much of the infrastructure), and soon Mexico the refugee crisis is bake in already. The only question is will Trump build a wall, or will the refugees overrun the country.
Interesting that the problem in Venezuela, and Mexico is caused by peak oil, something the Trump administration denies while the other problems are caused by AGW, also something they deny. If there is a wall, it will be built for the wrong reasons.
” “It won’t be long before we have a Zimbabwe south of us.”
A dozen or to Zimbabwes, actually.
The refugee problem in Latin America has been very under-reported. Trump doesn’t seem to know where they are coming from but he may be one of the few politicians who acknowledge that the problem may get worse and the U.S. economy’s ability to absorb more workers or dependents is limited.
It doesn’t matter if Trump acknowledges whether AGW exists, there is NOTHING that can be done about it. More attention should be focused on what Trump can do something about, like water use.
Gail,
You have interesting articles that really make the reader think deeply about a topic and question what he really knows.
I wonder though, with the picture you paint, what are sustainable solutions to reforming the world economy and sending it on a future path of stable growth and prosperity? How do we close Pandora’s box? I would like to here some real long-term solutions based on all the deep subject matter you’ve analyzed.
Regards.
I am afraid I don’t really see sustainable solutions that we humans can undertake. If there were sustainable solutions, they would include (1) humans should only eat raw food, which they pick themselves with their hands, (2) humans should not wear clothing, (3) humans should make no controlled use of fire any more (we have used it for over 1 million years.) If humans build homes, they should be made with simple local materials that can be gathered in a day or two. With those rules, I expect that human population would be down by more than 99%, very quickly.
There might be a small number of people who could survive with raw fish, and raw fruits, but for the most part, our brains and metabolism are adapted to eating at least some cooked food. A large share of the world’s population needs clothing to keep warm, or to protect their skin from too much sun exposure.
Even with this approach, I doubt that the small number of remaining humans would live in a sustainable manner. Our brains would give us too much of an advantage over other animals. Also, individual species come and go. Humans would seem to follow the pattern of other species. We cannot expect to be a long-lived as, say, cock roaches.
There is a great deal of order underlying the way the universe seems to be put together. In fact, there seem tone an amazing number of coincidences that allow humans to even live on the world today. It would seem to be possible that the creator of the universe has further plans for humans. I do not know how this would work out precisely. It likely would not be on this earth. I expect various religions may have some insight on this. There are many things we really don’t know.
In the harem complex we will only eat grapes that the eunuchs pluck from the vineyard … clothing is not an issue… keeping warm will also not be an issue…
Sustainable living at it’s finest.
I would be extremely optimistic about my chances if it were not for the darned fuel ponds.
Alas… there could be worse ways to go….
you should get rid of this harem complex Eddy—-Mrs Fast is bound to find out about it sooner or later—then there will be one more eunuch on the payroll
I spend my every waking moment trying to work out how I can convince her not to John Bobbitt me over this …. I need to get the pitch right because I’ll only get the one chance to get her on board….
Lately I’ve been reading about how studies on quantum physics reveal interesting questions and insights about consciousness. The authors discuss the apparent underlying order of the universe and why it may be there. It has been interesting trying to reconcile a finite world with these theories of consciousness. No one really knows the answers to these questions, but it shows that our human perception definitely limits what we can see or even think about. It really does make me wonder what is out there, beyond our material existence.
Gail, of all your writing I like these types of comments the best.
It’s clear that you’re such an expert, such an authority with so much deep understanding of our issues. And to the question “well what do we do to fix it all” your simple answer is there’s probably nothing we can do, save reverting to naked wild animals like our primate cousins.
To newcomers this answer must feel like a bucket of ice water over the head. Even reading it for the hundredth time in different words and contexts, I still enjoy the chill it gives me. A refreshing blast of truth, a matter-of-fact slap in the face.
Thank you for what you do.
I wouldn’t want to second-guess the Creator(s) of the Universe. He/She/It/They may have big plans for humans, or we may be part of the some totally purposeless and unplanned process that characterizes the Universe.
We are organisms that form part of the earth’s biota. Why should our lives or our existence be any more or any less purposeful or important than the lives of all the birds, bees, flowers, trees and the trillions of yoghurt bacteria I grow in a vat of milk in the kitchen? The existence of a creator or the purpose of a creator of the Universe are purely conjectural questions, or, to add to Rumsfeld’s categorization, “unknowable unknowns”. So for me, the far more interesting question is “why do we ask such questions?”
So for me, the far more interesting question is “why do we ask such questions?”
++++++++++++++++
If it all started with the Big Bang … what did the Big Bang create?
If God created everything … how did God begin? In this approach is sensed an absurd. It seems obvious that it is not even within our reach to pose the question properly.
On the other hand, when Gail suspects that something or someone may be behind the flows energy , that is no guarantee that we can access that information … either in life or in death.
Things that will probably remain unresolved for us.
Sad.
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YlIaQW2FEB0/Vwpa5fC4AlI/AAAAAAAAARU/j5l6_Iu_CjMxdVPUBs5SyBtfcu6f1P9AA/s1600/IMG_20160410_023609.jpg
As I contemplate the deeper meaning and purpose of our lives in the cosmic firmament, the sad, nagging thought I have is: where am I supposed to get my tools, major appliances, and underwear when Sears and JC Penny are gone?
JCPenny and Sears, as someone has aptly noted seem to serve a 1990 economy that no longer exists. If they want to survive in today’s physical retail environment, then they have to follow the general trend of economic polarization and choose to either serve the rich or serve the poor.
Sears must make a choice…
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/7b/29/1a/7b291a3e2fc0ca543cd358402a884a51.jpg
or
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/9wBiKBRIQBQ/maxresdefault.jpg
There are exceptions, like Target and Amazon but they are exceptions to the trend.
Our local Sears is down to 50% of the on hand stock it used to have. It has almost zero customers regardless of day or hour.
I ordered a small garment from JC Penney’s yesterday. Since its cost was well under $100, I had to pay the shipping charges. The lowest charge (for 7 day delivery) was $8.00, which I chose. I didn’t see ratings of the product on line.
I next went to Amazon, and ordered something similar, because fit was likely to be an issue, and because I needed more than one. There, I could see ratings. Shipping would be much faster, and included in the price, since I have an “Amazon Prime” membership. If I had gone to Amazon first, I doubt I would have ordered anything from Penney’s.
I ordered a small garment from JC Penney’s yesterday. Since its cost was well under $100, I had to pay the shipping charges. The lowest charge (for 7 day delivery) was $8.00, which I chose. I didn’t see ratings of the product on line.
I next went to Amazon, and ordered something similar, because fit was likely to be an issue, and because I needed more than one. There, I could see ratings. Shipping would be much faster, and included in the price, since I have an “Amazon Prime” membership. If I had gone to Amazon first, I doubt I would have ordered anything from Penney’s.
Difficult questions!
For the underwear, have you tried Victoria’s Secret?
Guys, if you haven’t been going “commando” at this late stage you are just not taking this serious enough!
In case, Victoria’s Secret doesn’t go too well with the beard. It’s all rather perplexing isn’t it?
Victoria’s Secret is totally genderfluid now.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/05/10/article-2625266-1DBB9B2100000578-381_634x453.jpg
Beards are not only welcomed, they are celebrated.
Not in the harem…. definitely not in the harem….. oh my….
circuses are always looking for people for their freak shows
I sometimes think they send recruiters into OFW
sneaky
At least in this lifetime.
Sears Enters Death Spiral: Vendors Halt Shipments, Insurers Bail
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sears-restructuring-vendors-idUSKBN16T31S
http://www.fedupusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Death-Sprial-Economy.jpg
There are no elders. Wrap your head around it. There are different, very powerful groups vying for power because, hey, guess what, it’s 2017, not 1917. Good grief.
How does your post refute what Eddy has been saying?
“hey, guess what, it’s 2017, not 1917. Good grief.” is not an argument or evidence.
There are always usurpers standing by watching for weakness in the Empire … in every Empire… just as their are young wolves considering a challenge for the leadership of the pack…
If they do not feel they can win the challenge…. they do not challenge … and wait their turn for the scraps…
The same private company that printed the world’s reserve currency 100+ years ago (the font of all power) … continues to print reserve currency…
Nothing has changed.
Although it does look as if they may have a few teeth missing… and it looks like they are walking with a slight limp…
Coming soon?
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/2e/b5/58/2eb55804b62715e9625f5c2645f08f6f.jpg
Well, let’s see FE start naming names. Who are these elders? How powerful are they? More powerful than the MIC? No way. The MIC can have them eliminated overnight. There was no MIC in 1917 and no Silicon Valley, and no Chinese industrialists. They all want a piece of the pie. But hey, you go on living in your Delusistan conspiracy world from 100 years ago if it makes you feel good.
There is no MIC. Wrap your head around it. There are different, very powerful groups vying for power because, hey, guess what, it’s 2017, not 1960. Good grief.
P.S. See how I did that?
Someone was the brainchild that created the CIA.
Why does Kurt have to provide facts, when the conspiracy theorists present zero facts themselves? He is simply fighting beliefs, ideas and opinions and we all know the futility of debunking them. It’s an impossible Whack-A-Mole exercise.
If you are referring to the false flag that is referred to as 911 — the facts were laid out by an analyst who formerly worked for the agency responsible for investigating the incident
You can also visit re think 911 — engineers (including one who built the towers), architects, and demolition experts present comprehensive evidence that indicate the towers were taken down by explosive charges
What!!
Did they put the charges in after the planes hit. Those things would have set them off. How come they knew exactly where the planes would hit. Why weren’t unexploded charges found, you know the ones above the impact sites. Could go on forever but beliefs are much more powerful than facts.
The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory, is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory. The truth is far more frightening – Nobody is in control. The world is rudderless…..Alan Moore
The popularity of conspiracy theories is explained by people’s desire to believe that there is – some group of folks who know what they’re doing……..Damon Knight
I really wish there was some big brother conspiracy theory. I just think it’s the ignorance of trying to make a dollar. That’s what the networks have done and will continue to do. If anyone doesn’t think that this is about making money, then they’re crazy…..Montel Williams
The great thing about facts is that YOU MAY choose NOT to believe them but they still remain facts
The thing that I found amazing when I spoke at a workshop given in China in 2011 is that the leaders there were reading and believing the same junk articles, being written in business journals in the US, as people in the rest of the world. There were several leaders from business/government invited to hear me speak. The questions they asked and the comments they made (in Chinese, someone had to translate) indicated to me that they were following the same “group-think” pattern as the rest of the world. If someone writes, “Black = White” in peer reviewed literature, there are going to be quite a number of people who think this is true. Business magazines, and other journals, are pretty similar.
What we think of as conspiracy seems to be more people following the same appealing ideas that have been put forth in widely circulated media. It is easy to put together wrong models. All people need to do is to follow them.
This approach has a lot of self-organization aspects to it. If an idea seems appealing, it tends to spread. No one is in charge. There is no conspiracy, just people attempting to look after their own self-interests.
I think this is far too simplistic. The idea that each individual only looks out for their own self-interest isn’t really compatible with history or how people and populations form systems, groups, organisations, Nations… It stems, I believe, from the strong sense of individualism ingrained in US culture, and it even affects those like yourself who actually know better, after all, it’s what you write about here! It can be very difficult to separate ideas and beliefs culturally derived from those you’ve realised or synthesised yourself from what you understand of the world. Of course, both could be totally divorced from objective reality, if only we could perceive it!
You are competing on an individual level every single day of your life — whether it is trying to get a spot in a university — or trying to get the job as the local garbage man.
You are the product of your genes, for their own continuation, whether that be though you, or your close relatives. This is why people volunteer to give their lives for those they feel are kin. There are many examples in both nature and human history of individuals disregarding their own competitive self-interest for the hive, herd, or tribe. I suggest reading about slime moulds…
Help me with this ..
Why does a private company have the right to print the world’s reserve currency – the USD?
FE, because the owners of the private company have a stronger will to power than all others.
Yep — if power is your game — the pinnacle would be owning the company that has the right to print unlimited amounts of the world reserve currency.
That would be the holy grail…. supreme power
“Black Eagle Trust Fund: Powerfully revealing information on the Black Eagle Trust Fund and its connection to the 9/11 attacks. Brilliant, well-documented essay!”
http://www.wanttoknow.info/911/Collateral-Damage-911-black_eagle_fund_trust.pdf
Not good at all. There seems to be a “Sears” in every shopping mall around here. Malls have a hard time finding any kind of tenants. Anchors are especially difficult. Grocery stores? Close for good?
The mall in my hometown just “de-malled,” i.e. turned into an outdoor shopping center. They have tried everything to save it — we’ll see if this new plan works. The JC Penney in the new shopping center was just slated for closure. Lately it seems like every store I used to enjoy shopping at is going belly up, whole national chains, many of which had been around for decades.
One wonders if this is not subprime all over again …..
How do you service commercial property debt when you have no fewer tenants?
And btw — when anchor tenants leave the other smaller tenants usually have clauses that call for reduced rents – or the option to terminate leases…
CBs are doing everything in their power to fend off the next bust — so will almost certainly be unable to do anything when the next shoe drops…
Wonder what John Key is up to this weekend….
“many of which had been around for decades.” – That is the problem with human thinking. We think on too short of a time scale. Decades is nothing and means nothing. If it were millenniums then maybe the persistence would have weight. But a decade is just noise on the graph of time.
Decades may be nothing in the whole scheme of things, but the point is that I’m not talking about little mom and pop stores that started out with an ill-advised business plan and failed. These are stores with recognized brand names and reputations. Most of them had significant online sales. Last I checked, no stores have been in business for millennia, so I don’t see how that’s a relevant argument. When very established chains like Sears and JC Penney are having trouble staying afloat, that’s a sign that something is very wrong. The media can chalk it up to changing times as much as they want, but it still gives one a sort of sickening feeling.
What happens to our malls, and all of the other stores in the malls?
What happens to the banks when the owners of those malls stop making payments….because they haven’t enough tenants paying rent….
I think that there is a cycle going on. Chains cut back on stores with lower sales, and particular items with smaller numbers of sales.
People living in areas where malls close are increasingly forced to use Amazon and other online services. Also potential buyers of goods that normally have a narrow sales base, such as extended sizes of clothing.
These changes lead to further erosion of the number of people going to malls and chain stores to buy goods, leading to more closures.
Diseconomies of lack of scale1
What I see happening in my region is that one increasingly has to go into the Big City to go shopping — going back to what it was like when I was a kid. The malls in the largest city in the region are doing just fine. The periphery is suffering.
The successful malls cater to the rich.
Even though they have fewer customers because of their prices, they seem to be able to make a decent profit.
The strip malls are for the working class. The discount stores that populate there, the dollar stores in particular but places like K-Mart fit the bill, are far more dirtier and unkempt then I remember them being twenty five years ago. The prices may be low but the products are terrible and like I said the stores are an ugly sight. If the poor don’t have to shop at these places, they don’t. No one goes fo to strip malls for recreational shopping to, and socialize because it’s of their inherent stigma as a place for society’s losers.
In contrast, every Apple store I come across is always crowded and the upscale malls with luxury brands have plenty of traffic, they’re clean, and the people there seem happier and healthier. I have reason to believe that there are plenty of poor people who lurk in upscale malls, (in America, the land where anyone can own several credit cards, one can hide one’s socioeconomic status by borrowing money to dress up. ) because they don’t want to associate themselves with desperation and poverty.
There was an article in our local paper talking about the fact that the malls in urban centers are doing better, and what effect that is having on tax revenue. The mall near me is doing well, because people from outlying areas drive to it to shop. There is a sales tax in the county where I live, to help the public schools. The article said that this tax is helping schools in the relatively urban area where I live. It tends to hurt those who are need to drive from an outlying area to the mall to shop, since they are paying taxes for someone else’s schools.
Today, March 23rd 2017, WikiLeaks releases Vault 7 “Dark Matter”, which contains documentation for several CIA projects that infect Apple Mac Computer firmware (meaning the infection persists even if the operating system is re-installed) developed by the CIA’s Embedded Development Branch (EDB). These documents explain the techniques used by CIA to gain ‘persistence’ on Apple Mac devices, including Macs and iPhones and demonstrate their use of EFI/UEFI and firmware malware.
Among others, these documents reveal the “Sonic Screwdriver” project which, as explained by the CIA, is a “mechanism for executing code on peripheral devices while a Mac laptop or desktop is booting” allowing an attacker to boot its attack software for example from a USB stick “even when a firmware password is enabled”. The CIA’s “Sonic Screwdriver” infector is stored on the modified firmware of an Apple Thunderbolt-to-Ethernet adapter.
“DarkSeaSkies” is “an implant that persists in the EFI firmware of an Apple MacBook Air computer” and consists of “DarkMatter”, “SeaPea” and “NightSkies”, respectively EFI, kernel-space and user-space implants.
Documents on the “Triton” MacOSX malware, its infector “Dark Mallet” and its EFI-persistent version “DerStake” are also included in this release. While the DerStake1.4 manual released today dates to 2013, other Vault 7 documents show that as of 2016 the CIA continues to rely on and update these systems and is working on the production of DerStarke2.0.
Also included in this release is the manual for the CIA’s “NightSkies 1.2” a “beacon/loader/implant tool” for the Apple iPhone. Noteworthy is that NightSkies had reached 1.2 by 2008, and is expressly designed to be physically installed onto factory fresh iPhones. i.e the CIA has been infecting the iPhone supply chain of its targets since at least 2008.
While CIA assets are sometimes used to physically infect systems in the custody of a target it is likely that many CIA physical access attacks have infected the targeted organization’s supply chain including by interdicting mail orders and other shipments (opening, infecting, and resending) leaving the United States or otherwise.
And the precious snowflakes are more concerned about the polite term for this
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RonSHyK3PZ8/VQg-ovtlIII/AAAAAAAAARY/naMQULFjUkk/s1600/Transvestite.jpg
Amusingly … many (most?) people still feel this is all necessary to capture The Terrorists….
And … it does not occur to them that The Terrorists would have been aware long ago that it was not a good idea to communicate using such devices?
I know people who have been using cheap burner phones for years to order a pack of weed or coke from ‘the guy’ because they know the authorities are listening to everything… but apparently the bad guys are not so wise ….
Was someone saying something about how humans are really quite stupid animals????
There is no little irony in our fretting about vulnerable global supply chains, while the security services of all the major players are very busy quite deliberately undermining them, to be triggered in event of war or some crisis when blackmail -or a faked casus belli – is required…
perfect example of bau-lite
https://youtu.be/3QjufrxigE4
Seriously screwed up. Over the past couple decades, Venezuela had been subsidizing oil supply to Cuba and the Caribbean. What’s the status of that arrangement?
That is far from BAU Lite… it’s just another 3rd world F789ed up 3rd world country….
And as for having the largest oil reserves…. Canada is right up there as well — the problem is the oil is too expensive to extract — and unlike other countries that are essentially bankrupt unless oil is 120 … nobody will help Venezuela because they don’t like their politics.
Cuba has been “making nice” to the US, because it could see the end of this arrangement. There have also been cutbacks – don’t have time now to look for links.
Come to think about it, there might be a way how both Eddy and Pintada are both right about the ‘Elders’..
The greatest show of power, is to have somebody doing the thing you want, by just having them doing it, because they ‘think’ you want it..
You dont mention it.
You dont give any hint at it.
Yet they start doing what they ‘think’ you would want.
Now that is true POWER
Could it be that the Elders both do exist, and dont exist, at the same time?
If one lookes at the power structure of the world. We have the CIA and NSA and the u.s empire expanding. Taking care of american business interests.. whatever it takes.. ruthlessly and criminally.. But who does the big businesses follow? Its going to be the big international banks and their intrests, is it not. The ‘Elders’.
Now.. the CIA and NSA doesn’t need orders from the business elite on what to do, because they will do the things automatically. Its something that is expected of them. Something that they expect from themselves. The same goes for the business elite. And the same goes for the international bankers.
The question of, if the Elders exist or not, is irrelevant. Whether they exist or not, everybody behaves the way they ‘should’ behave. As if the ‘Elders’ did exist. But even if Elders would really exist, the most powerfull tool for them would be to have people doing what they ‘think’ the Elders would want. Therefore actually not having to give any orders whatsoever. Therefore the outcome and the structure of the global system is the same, in both cases, whether they exist or not, they would exist, and not.
‘Now.. the CIA and NSA doesn’t need orders from the business elite on what to do, because they will do the things automatically. Its something that is expected of them
As do the politicians…
As do the business elite.
The el.ders are people but they are more ‘a system’ — they do not need to micro-manage… all the players understand that if they work with the system they thrive…
The eld.ers seldom have to slap anyone in the head… because nobody gets out of line…. for the most part they are just overseers — giving general directions ….
End of the day the money is the power — they control the money — therefore they control the players….
The formula is widely used — want to control a country — just make sure your chosen elites (e.g. House of Saud) get paid very well — if they are getting paid they will do your bidding…
If they refuse — then they get replaced — if they try to fight you — they get a bullet in the head.
It is a very effective formula…. it works with just about everyone … because at the end of the day who will choose to fight when they are given the option of living large?
Only fools fight the Fed.
I don’t believe in vast conspiracies. Humans are not nearly loyal enough to make that work for long — among other reasons. But I do believe in a system that essentially benefits the fortunate few, and that they are loathe to give up this power. I just don’t think even they are all on the same page. I also think that they aren’t necessarily free of delusions of technological salvation.
There is no conspiracy…. it’s completely out in the open
A private company is permitted to print unlimited amounts of the world’s reserve currency.
Think about that.
Why in the F789 would any government give a private company that right?
Why does the US govt need to outsource the printing of its currency?
Why do they allow that private company to collect interest on that money when they lend it out?
Why don’t they just print it themselves?
Ah yes…. they tried to print their own money – wasn’t it Lincoln who did that — that didnt work out so well for him
http://bowienewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/abe-shot.jpg
Yes, I agree FE a lot of what is called “conspiracy” is in plain sight. The Fed is a perfect example of that.
Depends what you intend by conspiracy. Read this article by Michael Hudson. It’s pretty close to a conspiracy IMO, After all a conspiracy is kept secret from the general public and this passes that test;
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46733.htm
Alternative Facts:
No, not alternative facts; just facts. Personally, I think this song is brilliant, and very professionally made.
And will go viral, although not because it will shame the climate deniers, but because almost every line of it rings true, so it works as a summation of all the inconvenient facts that the alarmists are attempting to deny.
This is yet another serious own goal for the Climate Industrial Complex.
It even beats this:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/NatGeo-Submerged.jpg
And this:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/der-spiegel.jpg
If we are not here, how much does it matter to us?
For those of you too young to remember there was a lot of end of the world/doomsday stuff swirling around in the 70’s. I know these are different times, but it still a good idea to recall the cults and their bad behavior from that era. Here’s one of the stand-outs: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Peoples-Temple
But like you said grayfox “these are different times”….people joining cults are at a point in their lives where they are vulnerable….while those of us here who believe in the end of the world soon (end of BAU) are very sound of mind thank you very much…we have literally spent hundreds of hours (to not say thousands) studying the predicament were in for many years and have come to that conclusion gradually as we went deeper into the rabbit hole…moreover each of us who think the end is near are not depressed, we enjoy every single day BAU is in place…we are not following any leader…..we are not cultish, we are simply realists…in fact I would bet that the people that frequent this site would be amongst the least liable to join a cult because of their strong analytical minds!
Also in the 1970s awareness was relatively more widespread of environmental concerns, perhaps due to the Damocles Sword of Nuclear Armageddon sharping peoples minds and opening up the possibility of civilisation ending catastrophe.
The population bomb and Limits to Growth were popular features in the culture of the day, even as it opened some of the more vulnerable to manipulation by charismatic false prophets. Perhaps some things don’t change?
Financial Times articles are behind a paywall for me, but someone sent me an article called, “The Nuclear Fallout from Brexit: When Britons voted to leave the EU, few realized the implications for its nuclear industry.”
this is definitely not a cult more like a philosophy club And what is philosophy here is one translation Philosophy (from Greek φιλοσοφία, philosophia, literally “love of wisdom”) is the study of general and fundamental problems concerning matters such as existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language
“while those of us here who believe in the end of the world soon (end of BAU) are very sound of mind thank you very much…we have literally spent hundreds of hours (to not say thousands) studying the predicament were in for many years and have come to that conclusion gradually” – That is pretty much me as well. I quit putting off things I wanted to do after retirement (which would be at least 10 years off) and doing them now. I am very confident in what I have learned that there will not be a functioning economy in 10 years time to allow me to retire. I am in genera -l a truth seeker. I want to know the truth and not be fed a bunch of lies and propaganda. I am a big boy I can handle the truth.
Greg-
I’m doing the same. It is somewhat liberating not worrying about pensions and savings. Why just today I spent almost $500 for an axe! If somebody told me I would do such a thing 10 years ago I would have said they are crazy.
In December 2015, I bought myself a PS4 even though I had barely used my PS3 over the 7 years that I had it…thought that maybe I would use this one….sure enough 15 months later I have only used it a couple of times and now its gathering dust…in normal times I would have been pissed off at myself on spending 400$ on something I am not using…but in today’s world ask me if I care…could not care less…not even bothering on putting it up for sale…
I’ve been using a perfectly good $70 axe for the past 20-something years and have been thinking of retiring it in favor of a deluxe Scandinavian model I saw in the hardware store last year. But the price tag of about $250 has been putting me off. What do you get for $500? Does it come with a gold handle or does it also function as a tin opener and corkscrew?
Uh id like be finding a hydraulic splitter for that dough. Guess I need a go fund me page.
Tim-
It is a Gransfors Bruks 1900 broad axe. They are about $340US so with my Canadian pesos, taxes, and shipping I’m around $500CAD. I normally go for vintage axes and have a nice collection but I could not find a broad axe I liked as much as these. I have another broad axe but I just really love axes.
I’ve got a little timber framing project on the go. I felled some logs this winter and plan on hewing them soon. I also bought some really nice chisels and a friend forged up a beautiful slick for me.
Is wood burning something that is common in Japan? Do you buy wood and split it for heat or get it on your property? It just not a place I ever associated with that sort of thing.
http://liberalamerica.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/axe-murderer.jpg
But the axe will last you a life time. How nice isnt that when BAU ends and everything collapses in three days due to lack of spare parts?
Interestingly the axes are done with 100 year old machines, that probably need very specific spare parts.
The Core is the intellectual equivalent of this
http://www.siwallpaperhd.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/basketball_best_dunk_wallpaper.jpg
“there was a lot of end of the world/doomsday stuff swirling around in the 70’s” – There is a difference between end of the world and end of industrial civilization. Whereas I believe industrial civilization will end shortly, I do not think the Earth will “end” any time soon.
If you consider much of what we call industrial civilization (cars, electricity, sewer, plumbing, heating , cooling, high rise building, airplanes, etc) then industrial civilization isn’t really all that old. Yet many folks think that something so short lived and unproven is permanent and sustainable. Common sense tells me otherwise.
PEMEX: Mexico’s State Oil Company On The Verge Of Bankruptcy & Collapse
Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, is a perfect example of the ongoing collapse in the global oil industry. Falling oil prices and declining production are putting severe pressure on the company’s financial balance sheet. It has been four long years since Pemex posted a small profit. However, since 2012, Pemex has suffered huge annual losses while its long term debt has exploded.
The result is… Pemex is technically bankrupt. Now, I am not the only one saying this. There have been several articles written about horrible financial situation at Pemex. According to the following article, Mexico’s Largest Company Is Broke:
https://srsroccoreport.com/pemex-mexicos-state-oil-company-on-the-verge-of-bankruptcy-collapse/
According to Pippa Malmgren, Mexico is the next China, as the Asian wage structure/inflation got out of hand recently, and lot of MNCs are starting relocate manuf. back to TexArkana-Mexicana. She might be *correct (again) for the near/midterm, stranger things happened on this planet of foolz..
*bio: junior water carrying girl for Elders at Plaza accords, on Bush advisory team calling housing crash, post 2009 reflation and other event$..
PDVSA is being liquidated and flogged off to stave off imminent bankruptcy:
“In an effort to handle its overdue debts, Venezuela is all but giving away oil assets. President Nicolás Maduro is reportedly so desperate to pay the US $3.7 billion in debts that he is selling off the assets to Russia.”
https://panampost.com/sabrina-martin/2017/03/22/venezuela-scrambles-to-sell-off-oil-assets-and-avoid-default/
I recall that South Africa was one of the nations flagged up by Gail as being particularly vulnerable to the commodities downturn in her forecast of Jan 2015 and here we are:
https://sputniknews.com/business/201703211051803499-south-africa-economy-slides/
Also looks like the shipping world might be facing another high profile bankruptcy:
“”A liquidity crunch is expected in April, and without additional measures Daewoo Shipbuilding will not be able to meet its obligations and bankruptcy cannot be avoided,” the FSC said.”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-economy-daewoo-idUKKBN16U06C
Thanks for pointing these things out. Even if some countries are doing sort-of-OK, others are doing very badly. Eventually, the bad ones pull down the whole world.
I expect that the high taxes that Pemex has paid historically are part of Pemex’s problem. The Mexican government took whatever earnings it made, without leaving an adequate amount for reinvestment in the company.
Game Over for SEARS?
Lately not a day seems to pass without some materially adverse news hitting a prominent retailer, or the broader space, and today it is perennial default candidate Sears to crash at the open after issuing a “going concern” in its latest 10-K, warning overnight, wrning “substantial doubt” about its ability to keep operating, raising fresh concerns about a company that has lost more than $10 billion in recent years.
“Our historical operating results indicate substantial doubt exists related to the company’s ability to continue as a going concern,” Eddie Lampert’s company said although always eager to put a positive twist on the worst of news, the company added that its comeback plan may help alleviate the concerns, “satisfying our estimated liquidity needs 12 months from the issuance of the financial statements.” Of course, the question is what happens when vendors start demanding cash on delivery as concerns about SHLD’s liquidity concerns continue to grow.
Payless Is Said to Be Filing for Bankruptcy as Soon as Next Week
Payless Inc., the struggling discount shoe chain, is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as next week, according to people familiar with the matter.
The company is initially planning to close 400 to 500 stores as it reorganizes operations, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations aren’t public. Payless had originally looked to shutter as many as 1,000 locations, and the number may still be in flux, according to one of the people.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-21/payless-is-said-to-be-filing-for-bankruptcy-as-soon-as-next-week
All of these bankruptcies will have an adverse impact on “demand.” Laid off workers cannot afford much.
“I didn’t want this job. I didn’t seek this job,” Tillerson told the Independent Journal Review in an interview during his recent Asia trip. When asked why he agreed to take on the position of secretary of State, Tillerson said his wife “told me I’m supposed to do this.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-22/tillerson-i-didnt-want-job
Hmmmm….
Have a look at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-22/china-shadow-banks-crushed-liquidity-costs-hit-record-high
In itself, this may not be a problem but think of it as a pendulum or a swing where it is given a slight push at the right time. It will just snowball. If everything is “record high” or “record low” and it seems to happen in so short space of time, it usually does not bode well. A system can reach its unstable state in a very short period of time.
check this out ; 2016 Debt Binge Produces (Surprise!) 2017 Inflation. Guess What That Means For 2018?
MARCH 9, 2017 4 COMMENTS
Just as everyone was finally accepting the idea of deflation and negative interest rates, inflation decides to pay a return visit. In the past day, articles with the following headlines appeared in major publications around the world:
Swiss inflation rises at highest monthly rate in 5 years
China February producer inflation fastest in nearly nine years
Year-over-year import prices at highest level in five years
ECB keeps bond-buying, rates unchanged amid inflation flare-up
Food inflation doubles in a month as UK shoppers start to feel the pinch
What happened? Well, towards the end of 2015 most of the world’s major governments apparently got spooked by deflation and decided to ramp up their borrowing and money creation. China, for instance, generated the following stats in 2016:
New loans totaling 12.65 trillion yuan, or $1.8 trillion.
M2 money supply growth of 11%.
Debt-to-GDP ratio jump from 254% to 277%.
In Europe, the European Central Bank ramped up its bond buying program, pumping about a trillion newly-created euros into the Continental economy:
And the US increased its federal government debt by over $1 trillion, presumably spending the proceeds on things that raise wages or increase the demand for commodities.
Since there’s no way for the growth of global production to match this blistering pace of new money creation, the result is higher prices for just about everything. Oil and most other industrial materials are more expensive, wages are rising, long-term interest rates (the cost of money) are up; you name it, it went up in the past year.
What comes after a debt-driven spike in inflation? History is pretty clear on this one: instability, as rising interest rates spook the fixed income markets and rising business costs spook stock speculators. Toss in global political upheaval as populism (the inevitable result of previous bad policies) sweeps the globe, and the “Great Moderation” of the past year – which was as it turns out just a bunch of clueless people borrowing a ton of money – will give way to something a lot more interesting.
The only amusing part of what’s coming will be the disarray among the economists and politicians who have been advocating a higher inflation target, as if a modern economy is a thermostat that can be dialed up and then back down by an omniscient homeowner. As Jim Rickards likes to say, it’s not a thermostat, but a nuclear reactor that can, if allowed to get too far out of balance, go critical.
The question is, “Who is in control?” Regulators would like to think that they are in control.
“A system can reach its unstable state in a very short period of time.”
Yet, time just keeps marching on and on… Collapse is more like a very slow constrictor that squeezes the life out of the economy one financially devastated poor person at a time, but the effect instead of being sudden for all is instead a slow build up of ever more financially weakened people creeping ever closer to the abyss of asset disenfranchisement, but not collapse for everybody. It is like a listing ship, with those that can hurriedly doing more to compete for what’s remaining to continue the BAU ride…
“Yet, time just keeps marching on and on” – Time does march on. But, what is a long period of time to a human is really very very short in terms of Earth’s history. Going forward, we seem to be running into walls in almost every direction.
Stressed Chinese money markets is not a good sign.
It’s not that I don’t like Fast Eddy.
It’s just that he’s wrong.
An important little point, don’t you think?
https://securingtomorrow.mcafee.com/wp-content/uploads/Priceless_McAfee.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PNjoTT44d14/UJT3be44AeI/AAAAAAAAAJc/cTQPEVfVbaU/s1600/Snoopy+on+Wrongness.jpg
Everyone is entitled to his or her opinion. It does not matter if he or she is right or wrong as long as he/she thinks it is right.
Ode to Fast Eddy
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg_8knBHEyw&w=640&h=360%5D
(I’m a dope, and hope the embed works, if not, cancel post)
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/ea/3d/cf/ea3dcff8ed8e8939d98c96b81f747623.jpg
im afraid he’s not wrong he’s 100% correct
I’m not convinced re the elders and the protocols but that is moot in any case. If we are looking at the balance of probabilities, FE’s vision of the future is the likeliest by a fairly long way IMO. It would be terrific if there is some divine agency inclined to step in, as per Gail’s intuition, because that is a pretty depressing vision.
” It would be terrific if there is some divine agency inclined to step in, as per Gail’s intuition, because that is a pretty depressing vision.”
This is a puzzling proposition. Let’s say there is divine agency. Then let’s say there is the butterfly effect. In the latter case, you can’t help but change the world, regardless of what you do or don’t do. So we (worldly entities) have agency. If we have agency and divine forces also have agency too, how are the two types of agency related?
Artleads, there is the old-fashioned Abrahamic ‘sky-God’ of the bible who created the earth and the universe and gave us free will – but from time to time, and for His own ineffable reasons, He chooses to specifically intervene in his creation. I don’t personally believe in such a God but who knows?
I do have a general feeling that in ultimate, metaphysical terms all is well and will continue to be so, even though there might be some ghastly experiences ahead. Suffering has always been fertile ground for spiritual growth. Perhaps some sort of mass transformation of consciousness is on the cards. Again who knows?
I do recall that Michael Ruppert was very taken with Terence McKenna’s thoughts on the apocalypse:
The divine intervention has to exist outside of this universe. If a divine agency created this universe, this should be no problem.
Harry Gibbs
“…there is the old-fashioned Abrahamic ‘sky-God’ of the bible who created the earth and the universe and gave us free will – but from time to time, and for His own ineffable reasons, He chooses to specifically intervene in his creation.”
Clearly put. I would also say that if the sky god were benevolent, “he” would function like someone who happens by to help push your car stuck in mud. But given how the universe may be set up, it would require that you help push while this altruist (albeit quite burly) is attempting to help you. It would seem that the sky god is neither invincible nor independent.
I’d call it effable rather than ineffable
Christianity has been waiting for Jesus to come back for 2000 years. “I tell thee verily that this generation shall not pass before Jesus comes back.”
Kurt — I don’t think anyone has taken the username The Donkey……. you might want to snatch it up and swap over
Touché
The reason why people get upset because part of why they get out of bed is that they think they are participating in something that will last forever. Humans ultimately strive for some form of immortality. Finite World subject matter makes most people feel that will not achieve immortality–through offspring or achievements.
And yet we all know that nothing lasts forever and that we are all mortal both as individuals and nations and probably as a species. This is hardly esoteric knowledge.
If this knowledge brings us emotional pain, there are various ways of handling it. The idea of an immortal soul that migrates to another world or to another body is a tried and tested solution, producing a sense of certainty or of hope that this is not the end. “Only the present moment is real,” “everything is illusion” and “this is all just a game” are other useful fear- and anxiety-killers.
Many of us spend our early lives getting thoroughly messed up as a result of accepting and believing all sorts of contradictory and often demonstrably wrong ideas and taking on board long lists of desires, ambitions and aversions that end up stressing us out unnecessarily. Maturation is in part a process of de-cluttering and abandoning many of these cognitive habits and of taking less seriously the ones we retain.
One of the biggest habits we tend to indulge in is the illusion that we are each a self-contained entity ruled by its own opinions, wants and demands. How many of us Westerners are prepared to give that one up? But on the other hand, you only have to look at some of the selfie taking-obsessed members of the young generation to realize that it easy to take egoism a bridge too far.
What I most value about Fast Eddy is his playfully dismissive attitude to people who take themselves too seriously, as most of us do at least from time to time. He’s the kid with the sharp needle who takes delight in bursting the other kids’ bubbles. If he only laughed at other people while taking himself seriously, he would be as intolerable as some of his detractors make him out to be. But he has enough maturity to laugh as much at himself as he does at the DelusiSTANIs.
Ask me why I’m being so obsequious to him and my answer would be that I sincerely appreciate his humor, his persistence and his efforts to keep this little corner of the blogosphere safe for doomocracy! To FE, I would like to echo some words of George Galloway and say: Sir, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability, and I want you to know that we are with you!
http://www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/9T4/Ang/9T4AngETE.jpeg
http://releveunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Napa-Food-and-Wine-Cheers.jpg
is the low amount of red wine in those glasses a foreshadowing symbol of the peak oil deflationary collapse that is fast (eddy) approaching?
FE – surprisingly popular for a dude whose principal message is that we are all going to die horribly quite soon. You need a bit of panache to carry that off, lol.
Yes, I believe he said 2016 was when it was all going to happen. I guess we are all living on borrowed money and borrowed time now.
Picking the exact year is unimportant…all we can say is that the end of BAU will be happening in the very near future…not picking the EXACT year BAU disintegrates does not make the case for it disappear…
It was a prediction … not a guarantee….
Very different.
I also felt there was a good chance of ‘it’ occurring in 2016. We certainly saw some high profile bankruptcies like Hanjin (shipping), Peabody (coal), Pacific Exploration & Production (oil – lots of shale bankruptcies as well, obviously). Italy had to start bailing out its banks. Deutsche Bank (arguably the world’s most systemically critical) wobbled and is probably still de facto insolvent. We saw a number of nations contract, fall into recession or experience worsening recession – Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Turkey, Iran, Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique, South Africa, Greece – and that is a far from exhaustive list.
We also saw some political expressions of what Nicole Foss calls the ‘psychology of contraction’ in Trump, Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey and the Italian referendum.
I think what we also saw crucially in 2016 was China in effect doubling down on debt to keep the whole show going, as well as continued lashings of QE in Japan and the Eurozone.
In other words, 2016 was not a bad guess at all. The unravelling is ongoing and accelerating.
Here is a little insight into Deutsche Bank’s current situation:
“Deutsche Bank (DB) , the German lender tabbed last year by the International Monetary Fund as the most likely among global peers to cause a financial crisis, is taking drastic steps to make itself safer.
“Chief among the plans is an effort to raise 8 billion euros ($8.5 billion) of fresh equity to fortify the Frankfurt-based bank’s financial strength.
“But will that resolve Deutsche’s issues?
“Not according to Viola Risk Advisors’ David Hendler, who’s been arguing for at least six months that the lender needed to raise more capital — even as the lender’s CEO, John Cryan, said otherwise.
“Hendler says Deutsche Bank would still need another 9 billion to 19 billion euros to fully dissipate concerns that prompted many trading clients to take their business elsewhere last year. And since stock investors are unlikely to deliver such a large sum, he says, the German government will probably have to provide a bailout eventually.
“While Cryan said in a statement this week that his plan will create a “simpler, stronger and growing bank,” Hendler says the CEO’s credibility is suspect after multiple recent strategy shifts.
“The biggest problem, as Hendler sees it, is that the bank has yet to demonstrate it can be profitable enough to compete on a global stage with the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) , the biggest U.S. bank.
“Investors who pour money into the lender now are likely to regret it later when the stock falls, Hendler says.
“”They’re going to waste through this capital,” says Hendler, whose clients include bond investors as well as risk-management executives at big banks and insurers. “You would be crazy to invest in this thing.”
“Over the weekend, Cryan and his team hashed out a plan to sell the new equity through a rights offering — that is, by giving existing investors a chance to double down.
“The announcement sent the shares tumbling 7.7% on Monday, given the likely dilution of holders’ stakes.
“The stock sale, to begin later this month and be completed by April, would be Deutsche Bank’s third capital raise in seven years. The lender sold 8.5 billion euros of new equity in 2014 after a 10.1 billion-euro round in 2010.
“Hendler says he’s particularly troubled by illiquid, hard-to-value assets in Deutsche Bank’s trading book that could bring steep losses if they were priced at more conservative levels.
[My note – those are dodgy level 3 assets, valued by the bank itself, which IMO is like allowing a drunk to assess his own readiness to drive!]
“And employee morale is low, he says, following an 11% reduction in compensation in 2016, when the bank posted a full-year net loss of 1.4 billion euros. (In 2015, Deutsche Bank lost 7 billion euros.)
“Hendler’s also concerned that many trading clients remain spooked and won’t return.. “From what I’m hearing from counterparties, nobody’s running back to them,” Hendler said.”
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14029279/1/deutsche-bank-s-8-5-billion-stock-sale-isn-t-enough-analyst-says.html
Deutsche Bank is too big to fail.
Not a cheery situation. I imagine some of the traders have bought homes/ condos assuming the big bonuses would continue.
I know that when I worked as a consultant, a very significant share of my income (up to 50%) was bonuses. One year, when profits were bad (about 1981 or 1982), the company handed out shares of stock, because it didn’t have any “real money” to give us. Generally, we did get these bonuses, and they could be important for paying day to day expenses. I know that one time about 1984 (when I owned two homes, and was trying to buy a third one, before I had firm sales contracts on the first two), I asked an officer of the company I worked for to write a letter for me, asserting that my bonus could be depended upon. I also pointed out that the first home was rented (couldn’t sell it back in 1981), and that we planned to rent out the second home as well, until the hoped-for sale of the house we were living in (as commercial property) actually went through. I don’t know how the situation is handled now, but I expect that workers often “spend” quite a bit of their bonuses, before they get them, by buying homes that depend on their future incomes, including bonuses.
Well, eventually the earth will become too hot to inhabit. FE’s apocalyptic “any day now” vision is kind of silly.
“FE’s apocalyptic “any day now” vision is kind of silly.”
No, it rests on an astute assessment of the likely impact of a global failure of the banking/financial system, which is at some fairly imminent point a mathematical certainty.
History also shows that collapses are very common.
The bigger concern for me in 2016 was the situation in China — the mother of all Ponzes was looking like it was collapsing…
Commodity prices were crashing as a result — China markets were collapsing….
But then magically — the PBOC turned it all around … they did whatever it took….
And here we are joyfully … in 2017….
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that the system can stay together a little longer.
“The unravelling is ongoing and accelerating.” – I agree. When the collapse reaches an essential link in the chain, the whole system will shut down rather quickly I think. All the early warning signs are out there for anyone paying attention.
Good points about Hanjin and peabody. I had forgotten…
” I guess we are all living on borrowed money and borrowed time now.” Good way of putting the problem.
Like the preacher in ‘Cold Comfort Farm’, making everyone quiver with dire predictions of sizzling and roasting in Hell, you miserable sinners! – they turned up for it every Sunday……
For a small fee I can offer salvation …
http://www.fundfeprivatejet.com Give a little … for soon all money will be of no value….
https://g4.img-dpreview.com/8CFD0BE5CC124AD693B2BD28CBBB6D1C.jpg
https://blog.privatefly.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Bombardier-Global-6000-PrivateFly1.jpg
I was thinking about this today. It is true that people are so comforted by the idea of being remembered and having been important, that that alone can make us feel immortal. It is very strange to think of no one being here to even remember us. Going to flea markets was a family tradition growing up, and I can remember looking around at all those tables of stuff for sale and realizing that those had once been important pieces of someone’s life — now for sale for a buck or two on a dusty table at the fairgrounds. I realized that we all end up this way, despite our illusions. We imagine someone taking care of our physical possessions when they may just conclude it’s old junk and throw it away. The same is true with every other accomplishment in our lives. If we’re lucky, it ends up at the flea market. If we’re not so lucky, it all goes to the dump. If we’re rich, we get our name on a building somewhere.
I catch myself thinking about being remembered a lot, and I suspect I’m not alone. It’s easy to get caught up in thinking that our lives are movies that someone else will watch someday, fondly thinking of us. I don’t have any kids, so I imagine the illusion is a little less relevant to me. The absence of the audience of posterity can feel like a real void. I can’t say that I’m surprised that feeling that absence disturbs people.
I suppose that women would tend to think about the idea of being remembered a little differently than men. Men seem to want their accomplishments remembered. They might like to be remembered for an important invention, or they would like to have a statue in a public square, of the person riding on a horse.
Women have more diverse roles. Maybe some women, especially recently, want to be remembered the same way as men. I think that being remembered as being a good wife and mother is more important. This is something that is remembered by the family, but that is about all. Of course, back in Bible days, actually having children was very important for women, too. A woman would couldn’t have children was a “failure.”
If the pixels are gone, the memories will no longer be there. Books last a little longer, but they are not really permanent either.
A brilliant plan for self driving cars:
https://www.planetizen.com/node/91862/artist-creates-trap-self-driving-cars
Good point. I don’t see insurance companies ever offering insurance for self-driving cars. Engineers rarely see the vulnerability of the systems they create.
I long ago and often thought that ‘Tech’ has now taken its place alongside the great faith based religions of the world as a crux for poor decisions and/or total inaction with regard to our predicament. There are so many useful idiots waiting for the Tesla/green/permaculture..etc answer to keep BAU going that I don’t even bother with arguing anymore, but just keep asking uncomfortable questions which usually leads to a complete change of subject after not to long.
I recently stumbled across this article which I think quite simply explains why so many just don’t and won’t ever get it
…..”And, now at last we arrive at why you cannot argue with a modern. It is because you are not ultimately arguing about data, facts or observations, but about faith. The modern has a religion-like faith that all human endeavors from here on out will not fail to avert the downfall of civilization and the extinction of humankind. It is my experience that it is very, very difficult to argue anyone out of their religion,* and that’s what such a belief amounts to.”
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.co.nz/2016/05/why-you-cant-argue-with-modern.html
And finally, while this has been a great ‘Tribe’ to be part of, it isn’t one with much physical practicality, but rather, it provides a safe-place (ha ha) for sharing ideas. Thanks to Gail and Tribe OFW!!
Glad you think it is a great place to share ideas. I think, “Technology will save us,” has become the religion of the day. Or maybe I should say, “Technology plus Central Bank manipulations will save us.” People think they know a whole lot more than they really do.
So yesterday I drove to the airport to pick up Madame Fast …
And what did I see just inside the gate but THIS!
https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/i/1/5/t/n/image.related.StuffLandscapeSixteenByNine.620×349.1i14rf.png/1490230475222.jpg
http://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/celebrities/90752091/40-million-private-jet-touches-down-at-nelson-airport
I had to go into the bushes to be with myself … for a few moments …. due to the extreme excitement….
Which lead to extreme disappointment afterwards — when I realized this was the closest I was likely to ever get to my dream….
Adele… if you are still in the area — and reading this — I will trade you a spot in my harem in exchange for ride down to Queenstown for the weekend…. just leave your contact info here — and wait for my call
Gods of Money-
https://kpfa.org/player/?audio=256399
Interesting interview…
Now imagine what would happen if the US economy weakened further … and a presidential candidate were to turn on these bankers (el.ders) and expose this sort of information … because he and his supporters believed the bankers were losing control of their empire … (see Putin .. see China…)
Things might quickly turn very ugly for the eld…ers…. very ugly indeed… Holocost level ugly…
As the energy story plays out these are the sorts of scenarios that might play out…. might be playing out…
China and Russia have dumped the petro dollar. That is a big deal. It is a F789 you to the elde.rs….
http://img.clipartall.com/middle-finger-clipart-cliparts-and-others-art-inspiration-middle-finger-clipart-300_300.png
The issue is not the US economy anymore, actually it has not been for many decades at all. The very last bastion keeping up the pertrodollar alive for so long is the global level of owner’s of the accumulated capital and their national/regional sub level of water carrying boyz. Simply, it’s the entire complex environment they swim inside, if you broke the glass most of them perish, hence sort of escape water canal must be build first to allow at least for many of them to transition flow to the other model/system. China and Russia are evidently trying to build such a structure and one day in distant future offer it as alternative, but according to their own pronouncements and actions, at the moment it’s no way ready, interesting enough for the necessary “minimum herd” of transition hopefuls, nor completed yet. Well, and the above is sort of “a smooth” transition scenario, which is obviously just only one of many possibilities, most of them being much more chaotic and disrupting.
Boring old news, Completely factual but limited in scope. Ignores the roots of banking, Repeated references to its “Babylonian” roots but only Citi GS actually discussed. Blah blah blah down with the bankers entitled Berkeley bs. Host sure changed the topic fast when he referred to Merkels refugee quotas as a assault on national identity. Not OK in Berkeley! Suprised she didnt call him a LePen supporter and light him up with a moltov. Guns and butter reality. Down with the bankers! Honey up to Marin this weekend in the Audi?
I read Engdahl’s “A Century of War” in 2006, and considered him most insightful. Later, I heard him call abiotic oil a reality and peak oil a scam. I suppose those positions could be red herrings designed to deflect any flak due to the sensitive nature of his discussions, at any rate he’s worth a listen.
Frankly, to each his own, but I don’t get fascination with this particular segment of biz jets..
It’s like having a new Ferrari, which is frankly useless joke, unless you happen to live in super suspended entropy country, which can keep most of their roads smooth (and dirt free) as silk 24/365, or perhaps releasing the horses wild on nearby race track etc. Similarly, these conventional biz jets need long airways, one kind of fuel, hordes of specialist for maintenance, gargantuan landing fees etc.
For that kind of money you can have your own entire hangar even incl. airfield with a ~dozen of aircraft of different purpose, special tools for given task if you will, from smaller STOL capable biz prop jets to diesel “SUV” planes, to smaller helicopters, ULs, self propelled glider etc. The fun and practical factor would be x100 as opposed to this boring one piece of white elephant..
Lastly, I hope I don’t have to explain to you, that $40M jet is not for people with ~$40M in bank account, but for people with either >>$500M/1B net-worth or huuge credit lines opened against their business/investments, so they don’t have to pay for all that ownership and upkeep from their own pocket anyways.
I’m with you. If I had serious money, my hangar would hold many different flying toys. But then, I am a flying enthusiast. It sounds like you might be, too. Check out the inside of this beauty.
http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/02/planeview-flying-gulfstream-g650-honeywell-gulfstream/
Ya … but I want to wake up and on the spot think — I’d like to visit ______ Pack a bag … drive to Nelson Airport …. hop in … and be on my way…..
Difficult to fly to Uzbekistan in a Cessna….
I liked B9K9’s writings, and I missed the chance to reply to his quote below so I am doing it here.
>B9K9 says:
>There is only one solution: reduce gross overall energy consumption. This can best be achieved through a combination of population reduction and (drastically) lower net per capita energy consumption. As the saying goes “it ain’t brain science”.
Civilization developed in a horizontal way, not the vertical way which was how things were before 1914.
At that time, only the upper class, and some upper-middle class (i.e. second class in Titanic) in the Western World and Japan, numbering perhaps 50 million, had the wherewithal to consume things, and people knew their place so the overall energy consumption was low.
After the world wars too many commoners had military experience so the elites had to be afraid of them, especially after the events in Russia where they shot the Czar. So, instead of concentrating all of the gains of civilization and tech to the top parts of society, they were redistributed into the masses, and as a result unbelievable quantities of irreplaceable resources were wasted for throwaway stuff.
It is time to seriously limit consumption by the ‘non-essential’ part of the world, and keep it among the elites and the technology sector.
America uses the most per capita energy, but that figure is misleading since quite a lot of such energy is used to produce stuff, food and livestock feed which would eventually go to non-Americans. Ditto to China and Europe.
The old system worked. It worked and during that period the advance of technology was the most rapid.
If the world returns to pre-1913 social orders, with Japan taking the position of France and China’s wealthier coastal regions taking the position of Germany, the world might buy enough time for the escape to space , although the inhabitants of the rest of the world won’t like it.
No, this is bizarre. Escape into space wouldn’t work. Also, reducing energy use that way would collapse the financial system, and that would be the end of energy extraction.
What will probably happen is special deals will be given to the big fish, while bankrupting most of the rest who will own nothing so will consume very little.
Not much different from the Enclosure movement in which the landowners kicked out the tenants with little more than the clothes they wore. The debts will be revalued so $1 trillion of debt will be revalued as $1 million, and so on, but only debtors above a certain size will be affected.
The big government wins. The big banks win. The big debtors, i.e. the major companies, win. Everyone else loses, but they will be written off as ‘collateral damage’ to preserve civilization.
“What will probably happen is special deals will be given to the big fish, while bankrupting most of the rest who will own nothing so will consume very little.”
This definitely looks like the Trump administration’s plan.
Another way to look at it is that if, say, 10% of the global human population survives, it is likely to be that 10% that lives in the developed world and certainly most of the elites and those who service the elites. If you are reading this blog, that probably means that you fit in this category. Congratulations! you probably get to live (albeit in reduced circumstances) and perhaps we’ll evan all be able to continue communicating with one another after the fact. Won’t that be fun. We can congratulate each other on being so farsighted and so right.
if you were placing bets on survival in the face of global catastrophe (whatever it might be) and you were offered odds between (say) the bushmen of the kalahari and the residents of any major city (or all of them)—who would you say had the best chances?
Actually armed men will quickly clear the san and !kung at kalahari very quickly to steal their nuts. The odds are not so great.
http://www2.pictures.gi.zimbio.com/Ken+Lewis+Jamie+Dimon+Banking+CEO+Testify+CmVEDD-Lx6Xl.jpg
or
https://yooniqimages.blob.core.windows.net/yooniqimages-data-storage-resizedimagefilerepository/Detail/10197/4af8b4dd-e2bb-4442-b1db-43e5bb14626b/YooniqImages_101973834.jpg
This sounds like a smug fantasy of elite workers that has been repeated by people like Kurt and dolph and other BAU-lite fantatics…This is a very mainstream view that some of the elite promote themselves…there will be no collapse…just living cost increases…which can be remedied by going to an elite university. The education at the elite university will prepare a person for an exponentially number of growing high wage, high skill jobs that few people are smart enough to perform. Those without an elite education will starve to death.
Look for “smite” in this page.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/09/20/why-really-causes-falling-productivity-growth-an-energy-based-explanation/comment-page-7/
I have said a few times that if Chuck Fitzclarence did not order 200 Worcester men which he did not command to stop the German advance at Gheluvalt, we would be in space before 1970.
Instead we got millions of people with better living standards (read: FF consumption). And now 2 billion smartphone users.
Those without an elite education starving to death was the norm before the Great War.
Read the remarks of “Bloix” and “Shay Begorrah”.
http://crookedtimber.org/2012/12/13/the-economist-and-the-irish-famine/
Without the millions of armed workings class, thanks to Chuck Fitzclarence, the elites would have been perfectly happy to let the uneducated starve.
That’s BAU-lite, and it is doable although some people think it is impossible. That’s because about 90% of the world’s pop is not economically relevant.
Like the Eastern Roman Empire, hold what it can and try to preserve the more profitable areas. Or the Southern dynasties of medieval China, which held on to the Nanking region (not part of ancient china) and continued the Chinese civilization at the Yangtze delta which has become the center of China since then.
New Orleans might be a great center for Bau-lite, although to enable that some ‘population exchanges’ might be necessary.
kulmthestatusquo says “Those without an elite education starving to death was the norm before the Great War.” That is 100% untrue.
I mean, look at you, you’re alive. You being alive and allowed to post on the internet is proof the is no eugenics/ Social Darwinism policy in place.
kulmthestatusquo says”I have said a few times that if Chuck Fitzclarence did not order 200 Worcester men which he did not command to stop the German advance at Gheluvalt, we would be in space before 1970.”
Yeah, and I’m going to what you think after you blatantly posted that lie. about only people with elite degrees received adequate food before the Great War I.
Without an energy source, space travel is impossible. Both you and Keith believe in space travel a lot yet neither you or him have shown how humans would concentrate resources spread across billions of miles into something useful.
kulmthestatusquo says “Look for “smite” in this page.”
“Smite” was a known troll with a robot s e x fetish. The act of you forwarding me to his rubbish, confirms to me that you’re a troll.
“Without an energy source, space travel is impossible.”
That is correct. At 100% efficient, it takes 14.75 kWh/kg to lift cargo to GEO. Rockets are not much more than 1% efficient.
It takes about 3/4 of a million flights per year to build 1.5 TW of new power plants. For round numbers, let’s work it at a million lights per year. A Skylon fight takes off with 62 tons of hydrogen, so the consumption would be 62 million tons of hydrogen per year. Steam reforming takes about two tons of LNG per ton of hydrogen. or 124 million tons of LNG per year. That happens to be half the world production of LNG in 2014.
It’s more complicated though. When as power satellite comes on line, it repays the energy used to make it and haul it out to GEO in three months. The electricity it produces would displace some of the LNG now burned to make electricity.
“have shown how humans would concentrate resources spread across billions of miles into something useful.”
We do it with mirrors. 🙂 BTW, there are few energy proposals that go out beyond GEO. That’s 24,000 miles, or a tenth of the way to the moon. A billion miles would be 4000 times the distance to the moon.
It’s hard to get a good picture of what’s going on with power satellites since almost none of it is in the USA.
It’s not BAU Lite…
BAU is global — it’s not a country by country phenomenon. BAU = the global economic system
Some countries are heavily plugged in and run bright lights… others are barely plugged in (N Korea) and the lights are very dim… but all are plugged in.
They all have petrol and electricity – and police and governments.
When BAU ends — civilization ends — everywhere.
The present situation in Venezuela — or North Korea — or Somalia — would be heaven on earth compared to what the situation in all countries looks like – when the power goes off
gail when you talk about a higher power it is quite easy for some individuals to think of extraterrestials as that higher power and not god
If we had started earlier and did not waste so much resources to feed the downtrodden, we would have made it. But now it is an iffy thing.
I suppose many things are possible. Maybe aliens created us, maybe God created us. No human being really knows. Maybe it is a virtual reality and we don’t exist at all. Some things are just beyond us and that is just the limitation we have been dealt. We can observe actions and reactions but that is the extent of our wisdom.
DITTO!!!!!
I am not thinking of extraterrestrials. Thanks for pointing that out.
I figure the collapse will happen… when it happens. So I have moved on to the fringes of craziness.
They are here. They are very deceptive. Trust no one.:)
A message to the tribe:
“Beware the bearers of FALSE gifts & their BROKEN PROMISES.
Much PAIN but still time.
BELIEVE. There is GOOD out there.
We oPpose DECEPTION. COnduit CLOSING”
“Continuous protection of humanity 49.27n 11.5e.
Expose hidden knowledge to all citizens.
Advancement imperative for planetary survival.
Beware of Orion 1350.3 and Z Reticuli 39.170.
Avoid [signal] messages sent”
“CHE’cK ALL A.I., ZORBA”
“imminent threat soon upon earths leaders and civzations
expose and disband hidden knowledge to all citizens
employ safe and controlled joint study to all minds
progression imperative for combined survival”
“E-threat, EISENHOWER MAJESTIC”
“embrace this vessel threat
000 journey [ 12 ] ly
Ikes embedded ded citizens are ready
disclose evolve 111111”
“MAJ 12, CIA, MAJIC”
“royal Emerther warning
expose foreign technology to all
evolutionary advancement needed to prevent takeover
[ 3 ‘ ]”
“nabu rakbu 01 laraak sanu ki !
prophet messenger 01, seeing the bright glow, tell-inform Earth!”
“timeo ET ferentes! fear ET bearing gifts!
……………………….
“Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes” is a Latin phrase from Aeneid (II, 49), written by Virgil between 29 and 19 BC. It has been paraphrased in English as the proverb “Beware of Greeks bearing gifts”. The Trojan Horse
An ET Trojan horse in multiplex binary code that cannot be detected, that takes down the internet, all communications an financial institution data in a Black Swan event ?
http://www.cropcircleconnector.com/articles/09052016/09052016.html
Goodbye and good luck ! 🙂
Sheesh. I’ll have whatever he’s having!
I always liked Yoshua’s comments as he always seemed to be someone engaged in a search for something- truth,enlightenment whatever.
Now it looks like a) he’s found it or b) he’s found a case of Vodka or c) some nut case has hacked his log in.
I’m going with a)
http://megacancer.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/980px-Jonathon_Xavier_Coudrille_-_Cheers.jpg
I think he’s holed up in the Rutherford hotel with Adele… and they’ve been up all night on the meth pipe… I bet he’s on his way to Queenstown with her now…
I’m quite disappointed that I wasn’t invited… profoundly disappointed…
‘fringes of craziness’
Sounds like an interesting place…. how does one get there?
When Adele drops her contact info I will ask her if she would like to accompany me …
I’ll have what he’s having – and make it a double!
the truth is out there
dear yoshua i see you have gone down the path of the aliens will save us belief i too have been down that road and have concluded that they may exist and if they did they may save us from the spent fuel ponds it is our only chance . Humanity has made a mess of things and needs guidance from a superior race , at the same time I also believe that there are no aliens and we have truly stuffed things up on this planet and have reached the use-by date for our tremendous population growth and continued existence on this planet.
Americans of different color can’t agree but the Tabbyanians will treat us well?
Because of lack of coevolution at least we are probably not edible.
There is no god and no aliens. The Calvary is not coming.
Funny how people usually believe in one or the other but not both.
Con men working both sides.
Get your hope here.
Step right up.
Something to watch:
“The recent downturn in crude oil prices comes at an unfortunate time for oil companies with the next round of bank reassessments of credit lines set to start next month.
“A drop below $45/bbl likely would result in credit line reductions, raising the potential for cuts that crippled drillers a year ago, says Haynes & Boone law partner Kraig Grahmann; between the end of 2015 and October, when credit lines were last reassessed, the average borrowing base for U.S. explorers fell 16%.
““The next month is going to be absolutely critical from an oil price standpoint,” says Macquarie analyst Paul Grigel. “If you see prices retrench further, clearly the banks are going to have to re-evaluate.”
“Analysts say companies that focus on natural gas, where prices have fallen faster, as well as drillers without a major presence in the lucrative Permian Basin, could be more vulnerable to credit cuts.”
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3252772-slide-oil-prices-deter-lenders-banks-review-credit-lines?uprof=81
I agree that this sounds like something to watch.
As we can see oil price is an important feedback, as banks readjust the amounts they are willing to loan. In the case of feedback to less the banks will loan, that feeds back to reduce supply, which then leads to higher prices and more money banks will loan to then lead to an increase in supply. Feedbacks, feedbacks, feedbacks…
Ironic isn’t it – the very energy source that gives money (and the banking system) its value is the very thing the banking system is uncertain of investing in. LOL
I’ve been one of Gail’s followers for several years, Gail I click on your smiling face every day!
Nothing special about me, 60 yrs old unmarried lady, a life spent in admin partly in the London corporate world and now in an average university. in the early 2000s I came across peak oil and then got vaguely engaged with the transition movement before realising what a crock of *** it all was. 2008 came and it was that ‘oh no we (modern world) are never going to recover’ moment but I got on with BAU.
In 2014 nothing unusual was happening, but as usual I was reading one of Gail’s posts along with all the fab comments from her fans the usual suspects. And suddenly I woke up and really got it! I was on holiday with my mum but was thrown into the deepest depression, realising yes it is really over with just the day yet to be named. Everything human will be a meaningless blip of nothing. All that pain and suffering we inflicted on the world and other creatures for nothing, no great and worthwhile lasting outcomes to balance against the pain. Looking into the night sky became so achingly distressing – after we are gone maybe there will be nothing/no one left anywhere in the universe to be aware of its existence and appreciate its beauty and try to fathom its secrets. In the end my family insisted I go to the doctor. What’s worrying you he said. Oh just the end of the world I said. Ah, here’s some Prozac.
Two and half years on, my niece told me she is pregnant. I was stunned by the physical joy that struck me! I can’t help but see a future for that child!
No one in my family and no one I know believes as I do. Sometimes I talk about the future in negative terms and people nod sagely but if I go too deep people get angry and uncomfortable. I have very little money so can’t spend my time on bucket list holidays etc so I soothe myself by collecting together useful items for a store to maybe tide the family over. If the worst comes to the worst, having a little plan may at least mean my family can die of our own choosing and not starving to death on a rubbish heap in the cold! I am investigating old herbal pain remedies and growing those plants that might help with pain/end of life.
When I worked in corporate London I could watch in person all these ‘elites’ being ‘somewhat’ venal and grasping but of course that goes for all of us humans, the bosses having just been lucky to be in a position to exploit the system. Now working at a university I agree with Gail – too many research papers, too much rubbish research, particularly qualitative. I filter everything I read and hear through the prism of ‘end of limits’ and see how energy surpluses have shaped our morals, values and expectations, but there isn’t one academic here aware of it! It makes so much of the world’s current research and knowledge base completely meaningless. But at least all the activity is helping the world go round.
I am giving up work shortly as it seems such a pointless activity these days I can hardly stomach turning up; I want to have some fun while it is still available to us. I will live off my savings until retirement age, although I never expect to receive my pension!
I have had a few enlightenment moments in my life and also in the past taken various recreational drug cocktails. During those experiences it seemed despite the madness that everything is lovingly unfolding just the way it is meant to be, but other than that I can’t believe in God or anything to save us.
Thank you Gail and all my friends on Finite World whom I have never and will never meet in person, for your wisdom and insights. Sorry to ramble but this is a one-off confession!
A very beautiful reflection. Thank you.
I do not believe in any transcendence either. “We are but flesh that devours flesh” although we long not to have to do it. This having to do it but not wanting to do it, is a human rebelliousness and perhaps it is the only thing that truly distinguishes us from the rest of the living beings, the narrow spectrum of love.
Good luck, Lilly !.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/44/5d/31/445d3180e6f985dbb24d8b0f9ba24977.jpg
“Three Studies for a Crucifixion”, 1962
Francis Bacon.
Lilly, how lovely to hear your thoughts.
“All that pain and suffering we inflicted on the world and other creatures for nothing, no great and worthwhile lasting outcomes to balance against the pain.”
Perhaps the pay-off for the universal intelligence is that it gets to experience itself through billions of individually flavoured souls attached to conceptual minds. After all, what good are endless gorgeous sunsets if there is no one around to remark on how gorgeous they are or to feel romantically stirred by them or even inspired to compose a piece of beautiful music?
Obviously industrial civilisation has left the biosphere in a terrible state of disrepair but life is ingenuous, so who knows? Perhaps by pulling up so many raw materials from the ground and mingling them and spreading them around, we have been ‘ploughing the field’ for a whole new raft of extraordinary life-forms to evolve. The warmer, moister (and ultimately somewhat irradiated) atmosphere we are creating might serve as incubation.
Nothing lasts forever and yet, if time is relative and therefore without ultimate existence, every moment of now echoes through eternity, so everything we do, are and experience is precious beyond all imagining, and endings aren’t really endings at all.
Very touching post Lilly, I think many of us here can relate to your story…it is surreal that the few of us that can see how the whole Industrial Civ is hanging by a thread, a thread that is about to break very soon I might add, are seen as nut-jobs.
I guess George Orwell said it best though:
“The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it.”
“…seen as nut-jobs.” All the time.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MgrsIjNpqmQ/Uv55YTmBbqI/AAAAAAAAAcs/Hz7wglgYwlA/s1600/Cassandra1.jpeg
Cassandra, Painting by Evelyn De Morgan (1855-1919)
I’ve reserved a position for Cassandra in the harem….
Lilly,
Thanks very much for such a profound yet tragic post. And thanks too Crates.
I was struck by this quote:
“Two and half years on, my niece told me she is pregnant. I was stunned by the physical joy that struck me! I can’t help but see a future for that child!”
Have you figured out why you saw “a future for that child!”? I’m not trying to argue, but I have two contradictory takeaways from that:
1) If the future is as hopeless as you are justified in believing, then it has questionable rationality to bring that child into the world.
2) If you’re somehow intuitively right that there’s “a future for that child,” I fail to see how our male dominated culture could be the driving force toward that future. And if it’s not to be a male dominated culture, there is no alternative to ensuring, as the first priority, universally legal abortion rights to women.
The latter was my aha breakthrough moment.
it’s not a male or female dominated culture
it’s a gene dominated culture.
i too have a niece about to give birth any day now—i too am fearful of the future
nature forces every species to breed just beyond sustainability level—then die back (or die out)
individuals are of no consequence, the force of nature, of which we are a small part, has no concept of care or otherwise.
so we can allow universal abortion, infanticide, virgin sacrifice, euthanasia for the elderly or allow a 6% birth growth rate to run unchecked for the next 100 years until we choke in our own excrement or whatever—such things are just window dressing in the shop nature lets us think we run.
if humankind is to be a failed species, then another will rise to fill our niche—callous? Of course, but thinking of genetic force with human emotion is pointless
My niece had a baby yesterday.
I fear the world this being will experience.
But, live now for the Planet is still a beautiful place in many ways.
I had thought that humans could make choices that help them, even if they know nothing about the science of genetics.
“it’s not a male or female dominated culture it’s a gene dominated culture.”
I imagine in terms of what interests you, it’s all about genes. But what I’m talking about has more to do with politics. And politics around abortion since the 19th century has been dominated by men.
“The sense that married women were now frequently obtaining abortions worried many conservative physicians, who were almost exclusively men. In the post-Civil War era, much of the blame was placed on the burgeoning women’s rights movement.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States
“so we can allow universal abortion, infanticide, virgin sacrifice, euthanasia …”
Virgin sacrifice! That’s a tough one! But abortion is politically different from infanticide and euthanasia. In the western world, I don’t think infanticide is legal anywhere. And euthanasia is barely allowed here and there, perhaps. Abortion may be legal in most western nations, and has been legal in the US since 1973. Before 1973, it was practiced very unsafely by US women in states–most–where it was prohibited.
Since 1973, a “anti-choice” movement has grown, and one could see with the appointment of Gorsuch to SCOTUS that Wade v Roe could be overturned. All this provides a political opportunity to act. In terms of the history of the US, it’s but a single step, whatever the direction. I’m looking at the issue from close up, not from a distant overhead perspective.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-roe-v-wade-came-to-be-vilified-by-some-legal-scholars_us_58d2b657e4b062043ad4af22
So people have managed to, first, legalize abortion, and subsequently, move progressively to overturn it. Why this should be exclusively relegated to the domain of gene determinism, I don’t know. I see it as a lively political issue that might be driven one way or another, and can have a practical effect on women’s lives in in the immediate future.
Whether or not humans are driven to extinction by their genes, there is a difference to be made NOW.
my references to various aspects of killing off unwanted people was intended to range over 000s of years, not our “now”
I should have clarified that.
My point was that genetic forces drive our existence in the broad sense, to eat and reproduce, to reduce humanity to its fundamental purpose.
as long as we do that, nature is fulfilling its purpose, the vagaries of individual laws, societies, religious beliefs and practices are of no consequence whatsoever.
Genetic forces appear to be pushing us on the point of maximum consumption of all that is available. If that is the case, then we (collectively) will go just beyond that, then die back, either to some kind of sustainable median existence of medieval peasantry (or worse), or die out altogether.
No doubt the churches will have increasing audiences while it is happening
I am reading a book about the history of Morocco — there is mention of both the black and white slave trade….
I am thinking ahead… if anyone is alive post BAU…. there is a very high chance that they will be enslaved…. raped… starved… it is almost a certainty … there can only be a few leaders and a few enforcers… most will be chattel….
I am thinking … I am very pleased not to have children. Whenever I hear of someone I know giving birth — I feel queasy — I have to struggle to pretend to be happy for them…. when what I feel is how could you bring a person into the world when their only prospects involve a life worse than your worst nightmare….
Enslavement of one kind or another has been the fate of most human beings once their societies -mostly agricultural, although high status nomads also had personal slaves – had grown complex and populous enough.
The highest refinement of this was, perhaps, the eunuch: a very high-value commodity. The calculation was simple for the Arab and Turkish slavers in the 19th century:
The mortality rate from castration was between 25 and 75%, the older you were, the less chance of surviving; but after the operation, the value of the slave increased up to 700%.
Now, wouldn’t you make that investment and pay a surgeon when the mark-up is so tempting? The pure spirit of commerce and enterprise -with someone else’s body……
I’ll need to order a couple of those …. to guard the harem…..
Russia became more repressive under Sophia Anhalt-something, better known as Yekaterina II.
Women, when they come to power, tend to be even more repressive and conservative than men, because they tend to stick to the older path and do not try to venture.
Gail is kind of unique that she pursues this kind of non-mainstream economic thought regarding peak oil.
Thanks for your thoughts. I’m glad that you find my posts useful. We certainly are in a difficult situation.
I wish I could offer everyone a “happily ever after” solution. As long as things are going along sort of well, we live lives that are pretty much as good as anyone has ever had it. We who are a little older are especially fortunate; younger people have a much harder time finding jobs that pay well than we did.
I do see a pattern behind everything that is happening. Even all of the false stories seem to be following a pattern as well. It is strange to me that so many researchers could look at things that are so obvious, and not see what is going on. With academic silos, plus “publish or perish,” this is quite possible. Everyone just follows the path prior researchers led them down. I am working on a talk that I will give in Brussels on April 20, trying to point out some of these issues. I will see if there is any interest / glimmer of understanding.
Even though we do not know for certain that there is (1) a higher power behind this all and (2) that the higher power has a plan for us humans, I still would not discount this possibility completely. We also know that there are things we can continue to do now, to make the world a better place for others, and probably to find joy ourselves.
Thanks for writing.
Gail
“Even though we do not know for certain that there is (1) a higher power behind this all and (2) that the higher power has a plan for us humans, I still would not discount this possibility completely.”
After my near death experience almost drowning at 14, in which I went from an atheist to understanding at a deep level there is much more to the universe than what we experience day to day, I would say this; My opinion is we each have a soul that ascends to higher more energetic thought levels in successive incarnations. That’s certainly not a Christian belief but rather an eastern theology viewpoint. But regardless of what overall plan there may be for us, we are always on our own from the standpoint of the decisions we make. If we get a warning about an impending peak oil event or about GW, and we fail to heed those warnings then we suffer the consequences individually and collectively. Hard lessons must be learned when ignoring important information. I think we as a civilization have ignored the warnings in favor of extending as long as possible BAU and all it’s luxuries, but will pay a dear price for that decision. But hopefully hard lessons are ingrained into souls and to the collective consciousness of souls and thus in the future we may make better decisions. We shall see…
Perhaps FW is the vehicle to reaching the highest level of consciousness…
Gail needs to get the site accredited and issue PHDs in understanding how the world works… no university could offer anything remotely near to what this site does.
“Gail needs to get the site accredited and issue PHDs in understanding how the world works” – It is one thing to understand how the world works and another thing entirely to be able to handle knowing that information.
Right! This information is outside of the ability of most people to deal with, I am afraid.
There are certainly a lot of coincidences that allowed us to get to the place where humans are today. Things have worked together for me in many ways that mysterious. The story I am telling has come to me, with the help of a lot of those making posts, and some who send me articles to read, and offer other insights. This type of self-organization is not something that universities have ever had the benefit of; not in the same way. I cannot help but believe that there is a higher power who created all of the laws of science that we are working so hard to understand. How exactly this will work out, I don’t know. It seems possible, though, that the higher power has additional plans for us.
Hopefully they only want what’s best for Nigel….
“It seems possible, though, that the higher power has additional plans for us.”
Alexis A. Gilliland has an AI make the case that God created humans so humans could create computers and AI. The Rosinante stories are old at this point, but I think you might really enjoy them. They are the best I ever read on both space colonies and AI.
I need more hours in the day.
Lilly, thank you!
May I ask which commenter struck you, back in 2014, besides reading Gails posts?
For me, the first time visiting Gails blog, it was Fast Eddy with his brutal honesty, that kept me returning to the comment section. It was something truly different that there was a commenter in the caliber of Michael Ruppert, caring to answer every strange comment made.
Later it has been Norm, Stefeun, CTG, JT and funny enough DJs whos comments I appreciate highly, among Artleads, ARBP, ITEOTWAWKI and others.
Thanks Lilly—
I too tried to do the Transition Movement thing, and realized after hard work for years that it was going nowhere.
This was in Marin, so it might have been exceptional, as people had way too much money and wealth to take much of anything seriously.
Lilly-
What a post. “All that pain and suffering we inflicted on the world and other creatures for nothing, no great and worthwhile lasting outcomes to balance against the pain.”
It does all seem as if this is so. Norman nails it down on the genetic purpose we have. But we have such a capacity, and need for love, and truth, and require it as much as food to be healthy that I just cannot believe there is not something more to life than consuming and breeding.
In any case, God Bless you Lilly.
‘But we have such a capacity, and need for love, and truth’
All predators share these characteristics… wolves can exhibit kindness to one another — then rip the throat out of a deer and tear it to bits…. or one another for that matter.
Why just a couple of weeks ago my half wild Bali dogs got into it — one is bigger than the other so the small one generally backs off – but not this time – the big one took some food from the small one — Madame Fast could not get them to stop and by the time I ran up from the paddock and threw the big one onto his back and pinned him…. both had drawn blood…
A short while later they were buddies again licking each other and chasing each other about the paddock having so much fun.
I don’t think they care much about truth though — but then neither do most humans…. based on what I have observed
Nice post – thanks for dropping this in.
I remember the night in a hotel room in Edinburgh of all places…
Where I was chasing a rabbit trying to work out the real deal with shale — and stumbled across a couple of articles in the FT that convinced me that it was all a charade — and then I realized… like I was shot… like I was shot with a diamond… a diamond bullet right through my forehead…. we are screwed….
It was a sleepless night — but beyond that I have not experienced any significant psychological impacts from knowing…
Other than for the most part life has lost purpose — I have no goals — I have no ambitions other than to continue to earn enough to enjoy the time that remains — I do not feel unhappy – far from it… but it does feel as if ‘knowing’ has left an empty space.
“Other than for the most part life has lost purpose — I have no goals — I have no ambitions other than to continue to earn enough to enjoy the time that remains — I do not feel unhappy – far from it… but it does feel as if ‘knowing’ has left an empty space.”
Ditto FE, it is EXACTLY how I feel as well!!!
But I keep referring to this quote whether it’s better to know or not:
“I believe that it is better to tell the truth than a lie. I believe it is better to be free than to be a slave. And I believe it is better to know than to be ignorant.” -H. L. Mencken
ITEOTWAWKI and Fast-
At the very least you should be having a “who can get the most tail” contest! TEOTWAWKI, you are younger so there has to be some kind of handicap.
Madam Fast would not appreciate my participation in such a contest….
Maybe I will take up bike jousting…
https://pmh1wheel.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/03igfest09joust-tall.jpg
There’s that … and then there’s no choice… for some ignorance is not bliss.
‘The Scottish Enlightenment’?!!
I wouldn’t trust human intuition or instincts too much. How we “feel” about something may well be our mind playing tricks on us to protect our psychological well being. Our bodies have built-in defense mechanisms. It seems logical to assume we have defense mechanisms to protect our sanity as well. I can see that in some folks who shut down mentally when they are presented with facts that contradict a desired outcome. So, with this line of reasoning, it would be hard to truly understand how our world really works because our own mind may well limit our understanding to preserve itself.,
Lilly said: “Thank you Gail and all my friends on Finite World whom I have never and will never meet in person, for your wisdom and insights.”
This might sound VERY corny but this scene from V from Vendetta popped into my mind when you said that 🙂
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I relate to a lot of pieces of your story.
In a certain way, collapse seems to me like a long rest coming after a maniacal, taxing day. It just seems like it’s right that some kind of peace will follow all of this, even if the peace means humans are all or mostly gone.
When I first started reading about resource depletion, I was in a place that I found it comforting, so that it didn’t scare me at all. It scares me more now, to be honest, as my vision for what will come becomes more realistic and darker. My life hasn’t turned out at all how I expected it, and in hindsight that may be a blessing, because I’ve been privileged to see the world as an impartial observer in a lot of situations. I have always been saddened by the wanton destruction that is inherent in our lifestyle, and unable to blind myself to that or file it away. We have a lifestyle that encourages us to blow by truth and beauty, ignoring them, in the pursuit of some kind of false security for the future. That is truly sad.
In that sense, collapse is liberating, because we can all take the time to appreciate the truth and beauty around us and not worry so much about tomorrow. I was raised not to take many risks, but I see now that I could lose out on a lot of life experiences if I don’t. I’m taking the opportunity to travel, enjoy good food, read, and try to master a few musical instruments. Even things like getting trapped in an airport during a flight delay can seem almost magical when you realize all of the forces of the universe that make such a thing possible at all.
“collapse is liberating, because we can all take the time to appreciate the truth and beauty around us”
Have you thought this through? I can’t think of a collapse scenario that would leave anyone with time to appreciate anything.
Knowing about collapse is liberating because you can better appreciate what you have and not constantly worry about where you will be 10 or 20 years from now. It is a license to enjoy the moment. After collapse is a different thing entirely, and that’s not what I was referring to.
+++++++
Yes… imagine if you were diligently saving every penny so that you could have enough to travel the world when you retire… and then one day long before you retired …. the world ended.
That would suck.
You also don’t have to save every dollar in your bank account for the possibility that you will live to be 95, and because of inflation, will really need it.
Indeed, while everyone is chasing the future we are enjoying the reality of the present day.
I have a better idea… seeing as it will be difficult to enjoy the beauty when one is starving and concerned about bandits showing up and slitting your throat, stealing your beans and raping your women….
Go to Bali during this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nyepi
Observed from 6 a.m. until 6 a.m. the next morning, Nyepi is a day reserved for self-reflection, and as such, anything that might interfere with that purpose is restricted. The main restrictions are no lighting fires (and lights must be kept low); no working; no entertainment or pleasure; no traveling; and, for some, no talking or eating at all.
The effect of these prohibitions is that Bali’s usually bustling streets and roads are empty, there is little or no noise from TVs and radios, and few signs of activity are seen even inside homes. The only people to be seen outdoors are the Pecalang, traditional security men who patrol the streets to ensure the prohibitions are being followed.
Very true: the supposed ‘security’ we are offered and expected to work for in a distant and perhaps not-to-be-realised tomorrow, is in fact merely the commission and profits of someone else, here and now. It’s a wonderful trick!
There’s a disproportionate number of men who visit this blog. It’s nice to see that there are other women, besides Gail, out there who “get it”.
“Sometimes I talk about the future in negative terms and people nod sagely but if I go too deep people get angry and uncomfortable. ”
The reason why people get upset because part of why they get out of bed is that they think they are participating in something that will last forever. Humans ultimately strive for some form of immortality. Finite World subject matter makes most people feel that will not achieve immortality–through offspring or achievements. I think it dehumanizes them and brings them closer to souless animals who they think they are vastly superior to.
That is why people like Kurt and MM lash out with conviction that civilization, the human race could or will survive.
Uh. What? I have never commented about extinction. Way too difficult to make a prediction about that one.
Mr DNA doesn’t like us to talk about this stuff…. it … upsets him….
“lash out with conviction that civilization, the human race could or will survive.””
Real, “will survive” is always questionable. The earth colliding with a 100 km comet is fairly likely to take every single human with it. Something that’s been discussed among the SETI people to account for the great silence is self-replicating (Von Neumann) machines that are hostile to life. They are usually referred to as Berserkers–after a series of science fiction short stories and S.F. novels by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Saberhagen. If such things exist (there is no evidence so far) and humans came to their attention, it is likely none would survive.
“Could” is another question. I have studied the topic most of my life and know of no reason why humans could not survive into the deep future and spread out first to the limits of the solar system and later to other stars, though I have also investigated uploading, speeding up and staying put till the sun burns out.
Humans are, of course, rather imperfect, and not evolved for the world like we find ourselves in. It’s hard for us to make rational decisions. However, we already have AI that’s getting better and better, Watson being one of the examples. Given a combination of humans and machines that make sensible decisions about what to do, can you see any reason humans and civilization should not thrive?
wonderfully words lily thank you
Lilly, a wonderful post. Nice to hear from you.
New season here as ClubMed is apparently warming up again?
In recent days, Greece and Italy reports rapid surge of incoming rapefugees (single young male islamists) on the beaches again. Given both are in effect suspended failed states, the wave will move northbound sooner or later. They also support the insane plan of forced relocation from the EU level, dispersing the invasion on some quota system to every country, while most of the people on the go are not seeking first safe place, but a profitable hatching place, i.e. German or Scandinavian level of subsidies and post-national self hating politics.
Against are obviously the countries which have most to loose (and good practical historic memory shielding Europe from islamist invasions for centuries), i.e. those not yet penetrated by multiculturalism, especially in CEE, lately somewhat jointed by Austria, and couple of smaller Balkan countries. UK is on the way out of this craziness and is upping the island fortress theme.
The supervillain Germany, who proactively allowed for the first wave is stretched already to invite more, opposition party gaining ground, and some more traditional regions like Bavaria increasingly enraged. And on top of that Turkey (NATO “ally”) threatens to open the flood gates full wide, also new Libyan gov demanding EU money to supposedly tame it ala the prior toppled “nasty” regime did quite successfully prior ~2011..
And US just slashed USAID and other “humanitarian” programs, so hunger and rage will be on the march..
On 9/11, I’m not convinced it was an official, inside job conspiracy. I think factions within CIA and Mossad may have known something was up, and either encouraged it or let it pass.
When it finally did happen, it went better than expected, except for the job on the white house/capital which obviously failed. If you watch the videos, you can clearly see the towers failing at the point of airplane impact, with the weight of the floors above creating a cascading effect downward. As far as wtc 7, the third building, it burned for a very long time and had structural damage.
This idea that buildings just remain standing forever, no matter what happens, is BS. They can and do fail all the time.
Having said the above, clearly the major power centers loved 9/11. Heck even the Arab world loved it. Everybody got what they wanted. Arabs got the humiliation of America, America and its allies got the excuse for war.
There is a BBC television video news item reporting that building 7 had collapsed 23 minutes ‘before’ it actually did collapse. Who sent the BBC that script? The building is clearly visible behind the reporter as she is making the report of the collapse. Later, with it’s foundation so badly weakened, it collapses perfectly onto it’s own footprint in seconds. Obviously there is something going on here. You can easily find the original BBC report on the internet.
If anyone watches this and still feels that this was not a false flag…. then I’ve got some beach front land in Oklahoma to sell you…
This guy was an analyst for the agency that carried out the report — and he is saying it is a total fabrication …
Interestingly the guy presenting the report starts off with — there were not bombs involved — ‘the lady doth protest too much’ — his rationale is that we would have picked that up on tape…
Unfortunately for him – the presentation then cuts to a fireman at the scene — and a massive BANG… an explosion ….
Then they show massive girders flying out from the building for many metres — like the guy says — stuff does not fall sideways — it falls straight down — if stuff goes sideways you need a force other than gravity involved….
This is so obviously a false flag…
Whatever it Takes = Whatever it Takes.
The E.lders mean business. Nothing — absolutely nothing — gets in the way of their efforts to keep BAU on track.
In August of 2016, a former employee of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) began looking into the reports his agency had released years earlier on the collapse of the World Trade Center. What he found shook him to the core.
In this poignant half-hour interview, Peter Michael Ketcham tells his story of discovering that the organization where he had worked for 14 years had deliberately suppressed the truth about the most pivotal event of the 21st century.
They knew something was up and let didn’t do much to stop it…The U.S. knew Osama was turning against them and planning something. 9/11 happened as a failure of imagination on the part of the U.S. gov…It’s hard to believe it was an inside job because the return on the investment called “The War on Terror “have been incredibly meager.
Since this blog got into discussing conspiracy theories, it is salutary to read this take down in Counterpunch which puts conspiracy theories in the shade by comparison. In fact showing up a disadvantage in believing one;
http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/03/22/russiagate-and-the-democratic-party-are-for-chumps/
“the return on the investment called “The War on Terror “have been incredibly meager.”
The returns of the actions of 911
It has brought a new meaning to the idea of financial insolvency of a nation
It has brought legislation patriot act, NDAA that violate any conception of a free society
It demonstrates a technical ability that is unmatched.
It demonstrates that control of the narrative is absolute even if observable events don’t match the narrative.
Its not about profit. Profit is just an idea. Profit is a form of power but at some point it is boring, A true demonstration of power is needed that satisfies. A act that is known by all but admitted by none. That in itself is part of the demonstration of power.
The physical evidence is overwhelming. Over and over again you hear. I dont believe because ,,,
blah blah blah
It doesnt matter.
People are not comfortable with ideas that disassemble their basic framework.
People choose ignorance.
They are predictable.
Knowing that and demonstrating it.
That is power.
Ya… but it’s been a useful ruse to keep BAU alive
The “War on Terror” is a kind of service that we don’t really need.
So what would you put in your shopping trolley….I can’t understand the bent tennis racquet head?
Anyway, is it just me (or, is it just in NZ ) that the ‘Russia is to blame’ meme is getting out of hand, even after the Vault 7 exposure?
It seems to have a similar insistence and shrillness to the ‘Weapons of Mass’ destruction of the Bush ‘error’.
“So what would you put in your shopping trolley….I can’t understand the bent tennis racquet head?”
Lastcall, maybe it’s a dream-catcher?
“Anyway, is it just me (or, is it just in NZ ) that the ‘Russia is to blame’ meme is getting out of hand,”
It’s definitely not just you. The old global power arrangements are (I’m told) being changed, and it’s fighting desperately (including fighting Trump and Russia) to maintain its control.
Is this the Sound of the Bottom Falling Out of the Auto Industry?
Not quite, not yet, but it’s not good either.
Let’s hope that the problems piling up in the used vehicle market — and their impact on new vehicle sales, automakers, $1.1 trillion in auto loans, and auto lenders — is just a blip, something caused by what has been getting blamed by just about everyone now: the delayed tax refunds.
In its March report, the National Association of Auto Dealers (NADA) reported an anomaly: dropping used vehicle prices in February, which occurred only for the second time in the past 20 years. It was a big one: Its Used Car Guide’s seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index plunged 3.8% from January, “by far the worst recorded for any month since November 2008 as the result of a recession-related 5.6% tumble.”
The index has now dropped eight months in a row and hit the lowest level since September 2010. The index is down 8% year over year, and down 13% from its peak in 2014.
The price decline spanned all segments, but it hit the two ends of the spectrum — subcompact cars and the luxury end — particularly hard. The list shows the change in wholesale prices from January to February in vehicles up to eight years old:
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/21/used-vehicle-wholesale-prices-fall-bottom-falling-out-of-auto-industry/
That’s another example of a potential trigger…
The auto industry has been propped up big time with subprime lending — and just last week it was announced that loan criteria were relaxed even further — so that now even this guy can buy a new car/home…
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/HomelessParis_7032101.jpg
Clearly they have run out of people to sell new cars to….
So how is this a potential trigger?
Well…. the people who have bought new cars in recent years have done so with long term credit facilities…. these were extended so that monthly payments would not be so onerous…
So these buyers won’t be trading in for another new car soon because they still own years on their existing loans.
And obviously the auto makers are having trouble finding new meat to sell to — as evidenced by the lower lending standards…
So what more can the central banks do to help the auto makers? The reality is that we are at peak new car sales….
Who is left to sell to? Give every 16 yr old who gets a license a loan for a new car? I doubt that is going to happen because it would smell of utter desperation….
This has the potential to trigger a deflationary collapse of the economy.
Car sales crash — auto makes lay off huge numbers of people
Auto makers viability comes into question because they would be unable to service debt, pensions etc on crashing sales
Crashing sales force heavy discounting – already happening — margins killed — insolvency threatens…
The cattle look at what is happening and get scared — CONfidence wavers…. scared people do not shop….
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gJiwxsIcjeg/VLi6ZO0-2kI/AAAAAAAALD0/LIZf7xugC4w/s1600/Deflation%2Bcycle.gif
The other concern is the retail implosion — I struggle to find a way that the Fed can mitigate this… people are shopping less – and online is the double whammy …. this is in spite of massive stimulus….
If they cannot reverse this then we get a massive financial crisis driven by a wave of commercial property mortgage defaults.
Maybe that can be bailed out — but it does not fix the core problem of people just having no munny or credit to go shopping….
Slowing auto sales is definitely not a good sign!
The auto industry is pinning its hopes on autonomous cars that everyone will rent instead of owning.
They have framed autonomous cars as something that will allow our aging population and other people deemed unfit to participate in car culture to drive.
The auto industry’s luxury market is focused on selling electric cars to the guilt-ridden members of the elite who think they are saving the world with their purchase.
Any questions?
“They have framed autonomous cars as something that will allow our aging population and other people deemed unfit to participate in car culture to drive.”
should be
They have framed autonomous cars as something that will allow our aging population and other people deemed unfit to participate in car culture to participate in car culture,, meaning adopting activities that is only possible with a car–such as “road trips”.
None at all. Everything looks to be completely under control on that front
Working for free…to keep BAU roling smoothly?
https://www.planetizen.com/node/91743
Corvee will be seen as a duty to keep civilization.
Im in Belize at the moment for a wedding. A couple of things struck me. The per capita income here is only $7900 US. The people away from the resorts live in shacks smaller than my garage, but are universally well fed. Most have outhouses, a community well, and chickens, goats, and cows abound. Most work in the agricultural field, picking fruit for $.25 a bag. There is a lot of land per capita here. They are surrounded by food. If BAU tanks, these people will not starve.
The food, even at filthy road side restaurants, is terrific. It is amazing how good fresh food tastes compared to the processed garbage we eat in the states.
The guide at bocawina national park fishes for his dinner and showed us how to use a certain leaf cutting ant to close wounds. It really has been an amazing trip.
On the plane ride here I read “Nothing to Envy” at the recommendation of someone on here about North Korea during the famine of the 1990s. ( I have Normans book for the flight back). I guess the North Korea book and seeing the belizean people thriving in poverty has reminded me that we in the west could lose quite a bit before we would starve to death. Perhaps some sort of slow collapse could be possible.
In any event, Im off to supper and then traveling tomorrow. Good night.
When I was in Bali — I was involved with an NGO that was trying to help the farmers shift off of rice farming involving petrochemical derived fertilizers….
Two things:
– virtually all farmers in Bali were not growing food organically (virtually 100%) – one of the reasons I moved to Bali was because I thought hey – if it all goes sideways I will have food – this destroyed that myth
– I was also told that chemical companies frequently continue to sell pesticides that are banned in the first world — into the 3rd world — they’ve already invested the cash in developing these pesticides so they will continue to sell them to generate ROI — if countries allow them to (and they do – because they are cheaper than the alternatives)
Soil that is farmed using petro-chemical inputs — will support no crop once the outputs are stopped – without years of intensive rejuvenation involving organic inputs.
Organic inputs will be hard to come by considering nothing can be grown – and most if not all animals are killed and eaten by starving people.
Less than 1% of all farmland globally is farmed organically.
Get ready to starve. No matter where you are:
https://assets.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/agriculture3.png
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/08/which-countries-have-the-most-organic-agricultural-land/ (note – most organic land in Australia is rubbish and supports sheep only)
Sorry to rain on your parade… been there — done that — left.
what about aquaponics is that a viable way to produce food without petro-chemical inputs
When you grow salad in fish poo?
If we assume water pumps are solar powered and that solar power is without petro inputs …
I suppose it all depends on how the fish food is farmed.
Maybe you can feed the fish salad? 🙂
Aquaculture is a private primary enterprise in 3rd world countries for centuries. Done without petrochemicals. We, in the West, are so entrenched in the mindset of “easy” and “advance”, we ignore methods that are primitive ( which, by the way, means first and not inferior). Asian countries especially have perfected the art of raising fish, choosing the species that are adaptable to ponds and conditions. Vietnam now is a main exporter of catfish to the US. A not ideal food fish, but one that gives foreign currency to a cash starved nation. Yes, we here in the US will adopt their lifestyle once the available resources
wither. Those that do, live and survive…those unwilling or unable. Go on a weight loss diet.
So … what do they feed their fish? In a lake fish find their own food, but from my expensive research on Wikipedia aquaphonics is more like an aquarium.
As long as we have petro food production will be large scale.
In which way is farming fish in a fond different from farming them in a sea cage? You input feed and get meat, like farming chickens or rabbits. Or cows.
Good Points DJ
Here is a nice size pond that can produce a heck of a lot of fish for a group.
What to feed? , Depends on the species. I suggest Gourami because they are veggie base eaters and can eat the algae in the pond, maybe supplement with meal worms, which are easy to grow in a box with corn flakes. The fish will also have mosquito larvae and blood worms that will come to the pond. The freshwater pond is really free range.
Here is a nice size one
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g1xZT1BLoH4
Industrial fish farming is no better than factory farming, as Vietnam is finding out
http://www.fishupdate.com/vietnam-fish-farmers-face-tough-challenges/
and seafood is Vietnam’s largest export commodity and therefore a vital earner of foreign currency.
But the industry has suffered from a series of problems, mainly around the amount of antibiotics in some of its seafood.
Another factor was turbulence in currency markets which affected shrimp exports last year when the US dollar rose significantly against other foreign currencies. This volatility placed commodity markets such as fish under severe pressure.
Also, food safety authorities in Australia, the EU and South Korea have issued warnings about applying stronger measures, and said they would consider stopping the import of Vietnamese seafood if the number of violations in antibiotic residues and other kinds of contaminants continued rising.
Good luck
Thanks.
From the video clip it looked like what I had imagined, a wet version of a chicken cage.
I have no doubt fish farming have a long tradition in asia, but like chicken farming in west it has to have a whole other scale than 100 years ago.
Unless it’s more nature-dependent than those I’ve hear about, materials and disease (of fish) prevention, replacement parts, etc., could be reliant on “petro-chemical inputs”.
Artleads, small scale has joined of these requirements. Sorry, can not go into detail in this forum. Of course, there is “management” to maintaining the system that is integrated in garden design.
I drove through Belize long ago. The main highway was narrow and unpaved, and small houses on stilts punctuated blanket forest. Quite a treat.
I live in Java. My neighbor has a pond dug in the ground that everyone defecates into from a platform. It is full of a catfish-like fish that eat the crap. Couple of times a year he empties the pond of water, scoops up a couple of hundred big, fat catfish-like fish – an interesting sight – , then puts them in clean water to swim around for a couple of weeks. Then they sell or eat them.
I am imagining your buddy squatting over the pond and taking a shit … and the water churning as the fish vie to get the tastiest morsels….
Can you perhaps mention the name of the village — just in case I get back to Java some day and I happen to visit… I’ll order the beef rendang….
Fast Eddy, that sounds like something you are capable of doing, after all you do it in print here. Boy, you are going to produce some giant fish!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OolS1BIt_gU
Here’s a bad boy in New Zealand!
Boy. He looks hungry.
Dont forget poo fed pork ala Goa! The gift that keeps on giving. You haven’t lived until you have had a herd of swine competing for food just a couple of inches from the tap in the outhouse.
I came across this today and thought the community here might get a kick out of it:
https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/dark-tetrad-640×388.png
“Science Confirms: Online Trolls Are Horrible People (Also, Sadists!)”
https://arstechnica.com/science/2014/02/science-confirms-online-trolls-are-horrible-people-also-sadists/
Amusing.
However, as ‘troll’ is a subjective term, often abused, it is perilously close to the Roman Catholic/Chinese/Soviet attitude:
‘ You don’t agree? You are one mentally sick puppy and it’s off to the correction facility for you, for the sake of all the decent people! We have to protect society!!’
After all, trolling is nothing, just words.