Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest rates. Similar people want to sell securities now being held by the Federal Reserve and by other central banks. This would further ramp up interest rates. With high interest rates, practically nothing that is bought using credit is affordable. This is frightening.

Another group of people who don’t understand the power of interest rates is the group of people who put together the Peak Oil story. In my opinion, the story of finite resources, including oil, is true. But the way the problem manifests itself is quite different from what Peak Oilers have imagined because the economy is far more complex than the Hubbert Model assumes. One big piece that has been left out of the Hubbert Model is the impact of changing interest rates. When interest rates fall, this tends to allow oil prices to rise, and thus allows increased production. This postpones the Peak Oil crisis, but makes the ultimate crisis worse.

The new crisis can be expected to be “Peak Economy” instead of Peak Oil. Peak Economy is likely to have a far different shape than Peak Oil–a much sharper downturn. It is likely to affect many aspects of the economy at once. The financial system will be especially affected. We will have gluts of all energy products, because no energy product will be affordable to consumers at a price that is profitable to producers. Grid electricity is likely to fail at essentially the same time as other parts of the system.

Interest rates are very important in determining when we hit “Peak Economy.” As I will explain in this article, falling interest rates between 1981 and 2014 are one of the things that allowed Peak Oil to be postponed for many years.

Figure 1. 10-year Treasury Interest Rates. Chart prepared by St. Louis Fed.

These falling interest rates allowed oil prices to be much higher than they otherwise would have been, and thus allowed far more oil to be extracted than would otherwise have been the case.

Since mid 2014, the big change that has taken place was the elimination of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US. This change had the effect of disrupting the “carry trade” in US dollars (borrowing in US dollars and purchasing investments, often debt with a slightly higher yield, in another currency).

Figure 2. At this point, oil prices are both too high for many would-be consumers and too low for producers.

As a result, the US dollar rose, relative to other currencies. This tended to send oil prices to a level that is too low for oil producers to make an adequate profit (Figure 2). In addition, governments of oil exporting countries (such as Venezuela, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia) cannot collect adequate taxes. This kind of problem does not lead to immediate collapse. Instead, it “sets the wheels in motion,” leading to collapse. This is a major reason why “Peak Economy” seems to be ahead, even if no one attempts to raise interest rates.

The problem is not yet very visible, because oil prices that are too low for producers are favorable for importers of oil, such as the US and Europe. Our economy actually functions better with these low oil prices. Unfortunately, this situation is not sustainable. In fact, rising interest rates are likely to make the situation much worse, quickly.

In this post, I will explain more details relating to these problems.

Low interest rates are extremely beneficial to the economy; high interest rates are a huge problem.

Low interest rates allow consumers to purchase high-priced goods with affordable monthly payments. With low interest rates, consumers can afford to buy more consumer goods (such as homes and cars) than they could otherwise. Thus, low interest rates tend to lead to high demand for commodities of all kinds, thus raising the price of commodities, such as oil.

Low interest rates are also good for businesses and governments. Their borrowing costs are favorable. Because consumers are doing well, business revenues and tax revenues tend to grow at a brisk pace. It becomes easier to afford new factories, roads, and schools.

While low interest rates are good, a reduction in interest rates is even better.

A reduction in interest rates tends to make asset prices rise. The reason this happens is because if someone already owns an asset (examples: a home, factory, a business, shares of stock) and interest rates fall, that asset suddenly becomes more affordable to other people, so the price of that asset rises because of increased demand. For example, if the monthly mortgage payment for a house suddenly drops from $600 per month to $500 per month because of a reduction in interest rates, many more potential homeowners can afford to buy the house. The price of the house may be bid up to a new higher level–perhaps to a price level where the monthly payment is $550 per month–higher than previously, but still below the old payment amount.

Furthermore, if interest rates fall, owners of homes that have risen in value can refinance their mortgages and obtain the new lower interest rate. Often, they can withdraw the “excess equity” and spend it on something else, such as a new car or home improvements. This extra spending tends to stimulate the economy, and thus tends to raise commodity prices. Suddenly, investments in oil fields that previously looked too expensive to extract, and mines with ores of very low grade, start looking profitable. Businesses hire workers to staff the investments that are now profitable, stimulating the economy.

Businesses receive other benefits, as well, when interest rates fall. Their borrowing cost on new loans falls, making new investment more affordable. Demand for their products tends to rise. The additional demand that results from lower interest rates allows economies of scale to work their magic, and thus allows profits to rise.

Companies that have large portfolios of investments, such as insurance companies and pension funds, find that the values of their assets (stocks, bonds, and other investments) rise when interest rates fall. Thus, their balance sheets look better. (Of course, the low interest payments when interest rates are low provide a different problem for these companies. Here, we are talking about the impact of falling interest rates.)

Of course, the reverse of all of these things is also true. It is truly bad news when interest rates rise!

Wages Depend on Interest Rates and Debt Growth

When interest rates fall, debt levels tend to rise. This happens because expensive goods such as homes, cars, and factories become more affordable, so customers can buy more of them. Thus, falling interest rates are very closely associated with rising debt levels.

We find that when we look at debt levels, rising debt levels seem to be highly correlated with rising US per capita wages, (especially up until China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and globalization took off). “Per capita wages” are calculated by dividing total wages and salaries by total population. Per capita wages thus reflect the impact of both (a) changes in the wages of individual workers and (b) changes in workforce participation. Using this measure “makes sense,” if we think of the total population as being supported by the wages of the working population, either directly or indirectly (such as through taxes).

Figure 3. Growth in US Wages vs. Growth in Non-Financial Debt. Wages from US Bureau of Economics “Wages and Salaries.” Non-Financial Debt is discontinued series from St. Louis Federal Reserve. (Note chart does not show a value for 2016.) Both sets of numbers have been adjusted for growth in US population and for growth in CPI Urban.

What does oil price depend upon?

Oil price depends upon the amount customers can afford to pay for oil and the finished products it produces. The amount customers can afford, in turn, depends very much on interest rates, since these influence both wages and monthly payments on loans. If the price that a significant share of consumers can afford is below the selling price of oil, we get an oil glut, as we have today.

It is important to note that oil and other energy products are important in determining the cost of finished products, such as cars, homes, and factories. Thus, high prices on energy products tend to ripple through the economy in many different ways. Many people consider only the change in the cost of filling a car’s gasoline tank; this approach gives a misleading impression of the impact of oil prices.

Affordability is also affected by growing wage disparity. Growing wage disparity tends to occur because of growing complexity and specialization. Globalization also contributes to wage disparity. These are other problems we encounter as we approach energy limits. Demand for commodities is to a significant extent determined by the wages of non-elite workers because there are so many of them. High wage workers tend to influence commodity prices less because their purchases are skewed toward a greater share of services, and toward the purchase of financial assets.

Because interest rates, debt, wages, and oil prices (and, in fact, commodity prices of all kinds) are linked, the system is much more complex than what most early modelers assumed was the case.

Hubbert’s Theory Underlies Many Mainstream Energy Beliefs 

Today’s mainstream beliefs about our energy problems seem to be strongly influenced by Peak Oil theory. Peak Oil theory, in turn, is based on an analysis by geophysicist M. King Hubbert. This view does not consider interest rates, debt, or prices.

Figure 4. M. King Hubbert’s symmetric curve explaining the way he saw resources depleting from Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, published in 1956.

In this view, the amount of any exhaustible resource that we can extract depends on the resources in the ground, plus the technology we have to extract these resources. In general, Hubbert expected an approximately symmetric curve of extraction, as illustrated in Figure 4. The peak is expected when about 50% of the resource is extracted. Hubbert believed that improved technology might allow more exhaustible resources to be extracted after peak, making the actual extraction pattern somewhat asymmetric, with a larger share of a resource, such as oil, being extracted after peak.

With this theory, we can expect to extract a considerable amount of resources in the future, even if the energy supply of a particular type starts to fall, because it is “past peak.” With the relatively slow decline rate shown in Figure 4, it should be possible to “stretch” supplies for some years, especially if technology continues to improve.

At some point, the standard view is that we will “run out” of energy supplies if we don’t make substitutions or conserve the use of these nonrenewable resources. Thus, an increase in efficiency is viewed as one part of the solution. Another part of the solution is viewed as substitution, such as with wind and solar energy.

In the mainstream view, the major influence on commodity prices is scarcity, not affordability. The expectation is that scarcity will cause oil prices will rise; as a result, expensive substitutes will become cost competitive. The higher prices will also encourage more conservation and more high-cost technologies. In theory, these can keep the economy operating for a very long time. The very inadequate models that economists have developed have encouraged these views.

The Usual Energy Model Is Overly Simple

Hubbert assumed that the amount of oil extracted would depend only upon the amount of resources available and available technologies. In fact, the amount of oil extracted depends on price, in part because price determines which technologies can be used. It also governs whether oil can be extracted in areas that are inherently expensive–for example, deep under the sea, or heavily polluted with some other material that must be removed at significant cost. Because of this, if oil prices are high, new technologies can be brought into play, and resources that are expensive to reach can be pursued.

If oil prices are lower than really needed, for example in the $40 to $80 per barrel range, the situation is more complex. The problem is that taxes on oil are important, especially for oil exporters. In this range, many producers can continue to produce, but their governments collect inadequate taxes. Their governments find it necessary to borrow money to maintain programs upon which the populations of the countries depend. Governments with inadequate tax revenue tend to get into more conflicts with other countries, such as is happening today with other Middle Eastern countries fighting with Qatar.

The situation of inadequate tax revenue is inherently unstable. It can eventually be expected to lead to the collapse of oil exporting countries.

Factors Underlying the Rise and Fall of Historical Oil Prices

The fundamental problem regarding the cost of resource extraction is that we tend to extract the cheapest-to-extract resources first. Thus, the cost of extracting many types of resources, including oil, tends to rise over time. Wages grow much more slowly.

Figure 5. Average per capita wages computed by dividing total “Wages and Salaries” as reported by US BEA by total US population, and adjusting to 2016 price level using CPI-Urban. Average inflation adjusted oil price is based primarily on Brent oil historical oil price as reported by BP, also adjusted by CPI-urban to 2016 price level.

This mismatch between wages and oil price tends to cause increasing affordability problems over time, even as we switch to cheaper fuels and increased efficiency. Part of the reason why affordability problems get worse has to do with our inability to keep reducing interest rates; at some point, they reach an irreducible minimum. Also, as I mentioned previously, there is a growing wage disparity problem caused by growing complexity and globalization. Those with low wages find themselves increasingly unable to afford goods such as homes and cars that require oil products in their construction and use.

Looking at Figure 5, we see two major price “humps.” The first of these is in the 1970-1998 period, and the second is in the 1999 to present period. In the first of these two periods, we often hear that the run up in oil prices was the result of an oil supply problem. This occurred because the US oil supply peaked in 1970, and the Arabs made the situation worse with an oil embargo.

In fact, I think that at least half of the problem in the 1970-1981 period may have been that wages were growing rapidly during this period. The rapid run up in wages allowed oil prices to increase in response to a fairly small oil shortage. Thus, the run up in prices was caused to a significant extent by greater demand, made possible by greater affordability. Note that timing of wage increases is slightly ahead of the timing of increases in CPI Urban. This suggests that wage growth tends to cause price inflation. It seems likely that globalization reduces the influence of US wages on oil prices, and thus on price inflation, in recent years.

Figure 6. Growth in US wages versus increase in CPI Urban. Wages are total “Wages and Salaries” from US Bureau of Economic Analysis. CPI-Urban is from US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The large increases in wage payments shown in Figure 6 were made possible by growing total population, by rapidly growing productivity, and by an increasing share of women being added to the workforce. Figure 6 shows that the big increases in wages stopped after interest rates were raised to a very high level in 1981.

Economists hope that rising oil prices will bring about new supply, substitution, and greater efficiency. In the 1970s and 1980s, oil prices did seem to come back down for precisely these reasons. I explain the situation in more detail in the Appendix. Rising inflation rates and interest rates were a problem during this period for insurance companies. One insurance company I worked for went bankrupt; another almost did.

We have not been able to achieve the same new supply–substitution–efficiency result in the 1999 to 2016 period, partly because whatever easy efficiency and substitution changes could inexpensively be made were made earlier, and partly because we are reaching diminishing returns with respect to extracting energy products, especially oil. Also, the wage disparity of workers is growing. Growing wage disparity makes debt growth increasingly ineffective in raising wages. Instead of debt growth funding more wages and more affordable goods for the working poor, the additional debt seems to go to the already rich.

The decreases in interest rates since 1981 have given the economy an almost continuous upward lift. This long-term decrease tends to get overlooked because it has gone on for such a long time. The major exception to the long-term decrease in interest rates since 1981 was the big increase by the Federal Reserve in target interest rates in the 2004-2006 period (shown indirectly in Figure 7).

Figure 7. Three-month treasury rates. Graph prepared by the St. Louis Fed.

The problem started when Alan Greenspan dropped target interest rates very low in the 2001-2004 period to stimulate the economy, and then raised them in the 2004-2006 period to cut back growth (Figure 7). This seems to have been one of the major causes of the Great Recession. The other major cause of the Great Recession was fact that oil prices rose far more rapidly than wages during the 2003-2008 period. More information is  provided in the Appendix.

Where We Are Now

We have many leaders who do not seem to understand what our real problems are, and how successful programs have been to date in keeping the system from crashing. Way too much of their understanding has come from traditional models regarding “land, labor and capital,” “supply and demand,” and “higher prices bring substitution.” These models are not suitable for understanding how the economy, as a self-organized networked system, really works.

These leaders seem to believe that QE worldwide is no longer working well enough, so it should be removed. In addition, securities currently held by central banks should be sold. Also, the growth in debt should be slowed, because it is getting too high. Whether or not debt is too high, this strategy will lead to “Peak Economy.” As I explained in an earlier post, debt is what pulls an economy forward. It is the promise (which may or may not actually be kept) of future goods and services. These goods will be made with energy resources and other resources that we may or may not actually have in the future. Once we pare back our expectations, the system is likely to spiral downward.

It is not entirely clear the extent to which interest rates have already started to influence the economy. Long term interest rates, such as 10 year Treasuries, have not yet changed in yield (Exhibit 1). But short-term interest rates clearly have increased (Figure 7). An increase from 0% to 1% is a huge increase, if someone is using very short-term interest rates to fund highly levered investments.

Worldwide, the International Institute of Finance reported an increase in debt of $70 trillion, to $215 trillion between 2006 and 2016. This sounds like a huge increase, but it only amounts to a 4.0% increase per year during that period. It is doubtful this is enough to support the GDP growth the world needs, plus the increase in commodity prices demanded by diminishing returns.

There is evidence the economy is already headed downward. A recent report indicates that in the US, the smallest increase in consumer credit in 6 years took place in April 2017.

Another worrying area is auto loans. This is an area where interest rates have already begun to increase a bit, making monthly payments on cars higher.

Figure 8. Finance rate on 48-month new car loans through February 2017. Chart by St. Louis Fed.

The average finance rate in February 2017 was 4.52%, compared to an average finance rate of 4.00% in November 2015 (the low point). We don’t yet have information on what the increase would be to May 2017. A person would expect that if finance rates are following the interest rates on short to medium term US government securities, the finance rate would continue to rise. This interest rate rise would be one of the things that discounts provided by auto dealers would act to offset.

Because of the higher cost to the buyer of rising auto financing rates, a person would expect such a rise to adversely affect new auto sales. Higher interest rates would also affect lease prices and auto resale prices. We don’t yet know the extent to which higher interest rates are currently affecting auto sales, but the kinds of changes we are seeing are precisely the kinds of changes we would expect to see from higher interest rates. We have had a long history of falling interest rates (plus longer maturities) helping to prop up auto sales. Simply getting to the end of this cycle could be part of the problem.

Peak Economy is likely not very far away. We do not need to encourage it, by raising interest rates and selling securities held by the Federal Reserve. We badly need more people to understand the connection between interest rates and oil prices, and how important it is that interest rates not rise–in fact, more QE would be better.

Appendix – More Detail on Changes Affecting Oil Prices

(a) Between 1973 and 1981. Our oil problems started when US oil production began to decline in 1970, and Arab countries took advantage of our problems with an oil embargo. We immediately started work on extracting oil from other locations that we knew had oil available (Alaska, North Sea, and Mexico). Also, Japan was already making smaller cars. We started building smaller, more fuel-efficient cars in the US, too. We also began to substitute other fuels for oil in home heating and in the making of electricity.

(b) Between 1981 and 1998. In 1981, Paul Volker decided to force oil prices down by raising target interest rates to a very high level. He knew that such a high interest rate would lead to recession, which would reduce demand and thus prices. Also, earlier efforts at new oil supply and demand reduction approaches began to be effective. The new oil supply was somewhat higher priced than the pre-1970 oil. Falling interest rates made it possible for consumers to tolerate the somewhat higher oil prices required by the new higher priced oil.

(c) Between 1999 and 2008. Oil prices rose rapidly during this period, in large part because of rising demand. Globalization added huge demand for oil. Also, Alan Greenspan reduced target interest rates at about the time of the 2001 recession. (Target interest rates affect 3-month interest rates, shown in Figure 7.) At the same time, banks were encouraged to be more lenient in lending standards, and to offer loans based on the very favorable short-term interest rates available at that time. This combination of factors led to rapidly rising housing debt and much refinancing activity. All of this activity also added to oil demand.

Fortunately, these demand increases coincided with an increase in the cost of oil extraction. The world’s supply of “conventional oil” was becoming limited in supply, and began to decline in 2005. The higher demand raised prices, thus encouraging producers to pursue more expensive unconventional oil production.

(d) The 2008 Crash occurred after the Federal Reserve raised target interest rates in the 2004-2006 period, in an attempt to damp down rising food and energy prices. This interest rate rise made home buying more expensive. Oil prices were also increasing in the 2002-2008 period. The combination of rising interest rates and rising oil prices reduced demand for new homes and cars. Home prices fell, debt levels fell, and oil prices fell. Many people blamed the problems on loose mortgage underwriting standards, but the basic issue was falling affordability of oil, as oil prices rose and as higher interest rates took away the huge boost the economy previously had received. See my article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

(e) 2009-2011 ramp up in prices was enabled by QE. This QE brought a broad range of interest rates to very low levels.

(f) 2011-2014. Oil prices gradually slid downward, because there was no longer enough upward “push” created by QE, since interest rates were no longer falling very much.

(g) Mid to late 2014 to Present. The US removed its QE, leading to a sharp reduction in carry trade in US dollars. Many currencies fell relative to the US dollar, making oil products less affordable in these currencies. As a result, oil prices fell to a level far below that needed by oil producers, especially oil exporters.

 

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,733 Responses to Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

  1. Ed says:

    The president says ““Today, I’m proudly announcing six brand new initiatives to propel this new era of American energy dominance,” Trump told employees at the Department of Energy on Thursday.”

    https://www.rt.com/usa/394719-trump-mexico-pipeline-wall/

    • Ed says:

      The big lie, works every time.

    • Cliffhanger says:

    • Bergen Johnson says:

      Yes, yes, yes, we are going to dominate the 55% of the oil we domestically produce for ourselves.

      But what about the other 45% we don’t produce, but instead import?

      Who said that? Throw that bum out. This is America and this is a new era of American energy dominance and anyone who says it isn’t will be excised, deported, arrested, rejected, ignored, repudiated….

  2. Cliffhanger says:

    Enbridge, lacking financing options, suspends New England gas pipeline project

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/portland-maine/enbridge-lacking-financing-options-suspends-new-21201905

  3. Cliffhanger says:

    Oil Company Wins Over Investors by Promising to Stop Looking for Oil

    CALGARY—One of the best-performing oil companies in the past year is gaining favor with investors in part by embracing an unusual strategy: promising not to reinvest in its core business “in the foreseeable future.

    “We’ve decided to let the shareholders see the cash,” Chief Executive Steve Williams said in an interview. ”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-company-wins-over-investors-by-promising-to-stop-looking-for-oil-1498910581

    What in the world……?

  4. Cliffhanger says:

    After Peak Oil, Are We Heading Toward Social Collapse?
    http://www.countercurrents.org/2017/07/01/after-peak-oil-are-we-heading-toward-social-collapse/

    From the article “The imminent collapse of industrial civilization means we’ll have to organize human communities in a much different fashion from the completely unsustainable, highly-centralized, earth-destroying, globalized system we have now.”

    I call bullshit for three reasons. Once the financial systems collapses we wont have the wealth to rebuild. We won’t have the resources to reorganize. And the sheep will be batshit insane post collapse.

    • Snorp says:

      You can add we won’t have the resources to maintain nuclear power plants (etc) leaving widespread meltdowns.
      What a legacy of dumbassery

    • Artleads says:

      “In other words, we collectively have to stop our delusions about perpetual economic growth and find another way to live from this point forward.”

      “A suitable response is preferable to someone or some group blindly sticking to the same old patterns that could have worked well in the past, but are no longer functionally viable.”

      It’s a long article, citing a wide variety of writers. Those say slightly different things. Also, the author(s) don’t emphasize clearly enough (although the above quotes suggest that they consider it) that any alternative to our system required needs to be put in place BEFORE total shtf collapse. Due to misinformation and normalcy bias, etc., this is the hardest time to begin change (before it is the only alternative left, by which time it will be too late). It also seems to be almost impossible for people in the developed world to conceive of the possibility to change NOW to something more survivable. Maybe that’s because they’ve never experienced anything else but first world living standards. Another problem is that we are so dependent on industrial civilization that we probably can’t survive without some version of it that fits outside of capitalist (money) economy. And nobody is even thinking of how to do that.

      • Van Kent says:

        If we think about the Chinese or the Japanese values, education is among the highest. The families try to make sure their children have good educations. PHDs and doctorates are seen as highly valuable. But a high level education only has value inside BAU.. it will have ZERO value outside BAU. Actually when looking at the hours the kids, teens and young adults spend in schools and doing schoolwork.. who is going to tell the parents or the children that those hours will have ZERO value in the future?

        As long as the BAU continues, it must run its course until the very end. There is no other choice. All possibility of growth will be tried. All that can be done to maintain growth, will be done.

        What kind of a lifestyle would be a transitioning lifestyle? After the collapse what will our lives look like?

        – energy.. it wont come from the grid, it will come from us doing 16h days 7 days a week.
        – Rest and Restoration, will be the hours with aching muscles when its too dark to do anything, no vacations, no holidays, no spas, no golf, no cruises or sailing boats
        – IT, wont be smartphones, ipads, screens or TVs, it will be the few books left to read and a small battery radio, with nothing on.

        The only things that will change are, where we live, how we move, what we eat, what we do to make a living, and also everything else in between.

        Can anybody think of a profession that would be a transitioning lifestyle? Truly. Because all the choices I can think of depend so heavily on BAU continuing. All the professions and lifestyles I can think of, will change drastically when BAU ends.. even a simple fisherman at some remote lake somewhere, would find his world different as our global induatrial civilization collapses

        • DJ says:

          “Can anybody think of a profession that would be a transitioning lifestyle?”

          Pro stitute

        • Tim Groves says:

          Nomadic herder?

          Civilization can never grow up on the move. A good example is the Bakhtiari in Iran. Every year they must cross six mountain ranges with their sheep and goats to get to the summer grasslands and then come all the way back to get to the autumn ones. The worst part is not the mountains but the Bazuft, a wild and deadly river they must cross. Those who are too old to cross starve to death at the river’s edge.

          Because the Bakhtiari are always on the move they have little: they must be able to pack and carry everything they own every day. So everything they have is simple and lightweight. Their life is so hard there is little time for invention, even for a new song. Every son becomes like his father, every daughter like her mother. every day is like the day before.

          With planting man could grow more food than he needs. He could live in one place and build a house and have a home. His wanderings were over. He could own way more things. He had time for new songs, for creating new things. Even the simplest village has all sorts of little inventions that we do not even think about: needles, pots, nails, screws, string, knots, hooks, buttons, shoes, etc.

          • Van Kent says:

            Is there anywhere in the world you could just buy a flock of animals and just move in? Without getting trouble with the law?

            Also how many (people/ animals) would survive the first year? There are people coming for your flock. But also four legged predators hunt your flock. What would be the amount of hunting, apex predators and predators coming after your flock? To give a picture of the situation post-BAU. Currently in Sweden there are about 250.000 reindeer. Annually about 50.000 are lost to four legged predators. The numbers for Finland are about 200.000 reindeer and lost to predators 25.000. The people who get a living out of the reindeer is about 5000 in both countries. So one guy currently needs to keep track of about 50 reindeer to make a living. In BAU terms one reindeer is worth 2000 euros..

            If everyone in Finland and Sweden could only rely on being a nomadic herder.. the populations would drop.. just unbelievably low. And everybody would be very used to shooting to k-ill everybody/ anything coming even close to their herd

            • Tim Groves says:

              If you head west to the Rockies, perhaps you could just mosey on over to the Bundy Ranch?

              Come the end of BAU, reindeer herding in Lapland is going to be a very competitive business, that’s for sure. In any case, humans are going to have to go through a severe demographic chicane that will require quite a lot of chicanery, not to mention sheer good fortune, to negotiate.

          • xabier says:

            There is the plausible theory that the Asian nomads were such effective conquerors because herding sheep had taught them how to herd and exploit people – outside their tribe, you might as well have been an animal.

            Perfectly adapted, mobile, predatory entities!

            Rather a good life, once…. better than sitting about waiting to be fleeced by fraudsters and tax collectors, as we do. Now even more insane with identity theft and virtual kidnappings,

            ‘Go West, young nomad, and fleece others!’

        • Artleads says:

          “– energy.. it wont come from the grid, it will come from us doing 16h days 7 days a week.”

          I keep thinking (with considerable anxiety) about this, feeling that what I’m doing now–making my own decisions about what to do and when to do it–represents some insane kind of delusional lifestyle. You could take it further. No turning on the tap and letting a cupful of water “waste,” for we’ll measure water use by the teaspoon full. Or, with luck, we’d have limes to rub over and cleanse dirty fingers.

          But I have a little familiarity with some of that. Growing up in the rural sticks (sp), off the grid, a half-full basin of water was used by everyone to wash hands all day. The water would turn gray and soapy. but somehow we managed through the experience. The bathtub was set only with a few inches of water. Dettol disinfectant was widely used. There WAS industrial civilization behind it all, but of a very different sort than the one today. Values other than money had the upper hand.

          What money I live on each month would make a poor night’s outing money for the average successful person in BAU. So I’m dependent on BAU alright, but on the very low end of the spectrum. And, indeed, what enables me to do all this with some sense of self possession and confidence is my elite education. So my education allows me to live on little with a sense of well being.

          Education today is a complete waste of time and resources. (It worked better in my time, when I had decades of BAU left ahead of me.) Kids today need to be helping to put in place the systems we need to survive in our unraveling (and post) BAU. There must be at least two billion kids who could be helping to construct and replace shaky posts of the Leonardo Dome instead of the total, mind shattering misapplication of education they are experiencing. Kids are learning the wrong things in school. Education today is a corporate fascist scam.

          IMO, it’s not that we couldn’t start now to put alternate systems in place, as emergencies dictate, it’s that the systemic obstacles–mental and social more than physical–are so overwhelming. But I’m sure you disagree. 🙂

          • Van Kent says:

            Who, how, what, when, with what resources?

            As I see it, it could be done as an research project, an extention of BAU.

            But as an independant enterprise, without any sort of ties to the debt/ the financial sector.. I cant see where the resources would come from, to get it started?

            • xabier says:

              In her ‘science fiction ‘ series, which wasn’t really, the novelist Doris Lessing wrote about a society that had established non -industrial ‘primitive’ agricultural colonies to give those who were sickening in BAU an escape route where they could feel really human working with their hands, etc.

              But as a solution for civilisation-sickness, it just didn’t work, since they knew that it was all an experiment, a fiction almost, supported by the BAU they had longed to escape.

              It wasn’t essential, real, and they were just actors even though ‘working.’

              And so they were still soul-sick, which was the main theme of the book.

        • Artleads says:

          We’re living through a time that hasn’t existed before. The entire planet is mapped and has been photographed from space. If you stacked papers, atop each other, of what is now known, the pile would probably reach the moon and go beyond it. People tend to talk as if the only possibility for post collapse is to be like people who never lived through industrial civilization, and didn’t have the option to stash away a portion of what has been learned from that experience. A good education system would be attempting to place all that is known in some vaguely rational order–for use now and/or later. Although we keep dismantling and throwing things away, we shouldn’t. And we keep doing these absolutely foolish things because of the way we think, not because there is any physical law forcing us to do it. We think in very sick, limited, backward, suicidal ways. But we needn’t.

          • Van Kent says:

            I would want an MacGyver-education, in hands on chemistry in particular (I like explosives)

            The thing I would like to know with the MacGyver-education, is how I could make makeshift solutions of these http://www.i4at.org/library.html preferably from scavanged bits and pieces of an deteriorating BAU..

      • xabier says:

        BAU sucks up our energy and attention like a sponge, leaving nothing much left to consider alternatives, still less act on them. This is particularly true today, plugged in as we all are.

        Moreover, to do anything one needs money, and that has to be earned in BAU. And we must pay taxes, without which we get crushed and have no alternative except jail! Tax demands will rise inexorably as economic conditions worsen, as in Ancient Rome.

        It is almost impossible not only to go against, but even step aside from the general flow – although the latter has perhaps some chance of success for an individual.

        ‘Be in the world but not of it.’ ?

        If there is one clear lesson from the past, it’s not individuals who survive, but effectively-adapted groups and -of course – belief systems. Tribes and clans survive together(or they all go down together, those powerful tribes which suddenly vanish from the record in history, or those being destroyed today by ‘developers’). The individual is important because needed to work, breed and fight, but everything is subordinated to tradition, ie the established needs of he collective.

        And overt difference from what everyone else is doing in BAU will be noticed, and may be just as quickly resented, as in any tribal society: one can experiment with this by wearing different styles of clothing, and above all by wearing something different from what the mass of people are wearing in a particular place or time -you can soon see how the attention of strangers fixes on the detail that is different.

        The interesting Aussie who blogs about his mountain smallholding -Fernglade Farm – recently says that people are starting to criticise him strongly for being off-grid, as they hold him responsible for the announced 20% price increases in electricity!

        So, those trying to establish a different way of doing things might not be seen as valuable models to follow, but might well be treated as scapegoats when it all goes wrong. ‘The nail that sticks up’ might well get banged in…..

        In modern societies, the tribes that people look to for their salvation will be by default political parties and ‘movements’, just as in the 1930s. And ideologies which by their very nature are not well-adapted to current conditions.

        Ideologies requiring scapegoats. This is the same process whether ‘Left’ or ‘Right’, the labels of the mass movemnets won’t matter a bit. Just study the career of Mussolini to have a beautiful illustration of this.

  5. Siobhan says:

    Central banks ignore credit at our peril
    link to podcast: https://www.patreon.com/posts/central-banks-at-12278604
    The world’s Central Bankers have been meeting up in Portugal this week and seem to have colluded on the idea of raising interest rates sometime soon. It looks like the UK, Europe and Canada are in on it but, Professor Steve Keen reckons, they’ll soon be eating humble pie. Any rise in rates right now will quickly be reversed, because the bankers are ignoring the role of credit. Find out why that is so important in this free edition of the Debunking Economics Podcasts with Phil Dobbie and Steve Keen.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-01/horrific-catastrophic-court-ruling-send-illinois-financial-abyss

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/06/24/illinois%20outstanding_0.png

    I wonder how all these entities that are owed money are able to remain in business? Not only are they not getting paid — but no doubt for many of them the state would be one of their largest clients…

    TBTF? Bail out imminent?

    If so — it would suck to be on a government pension… might be time to start researching tasty recipes involving cat food….

  7. Cliffhanger says:

    America’s Pension Bomb: Illinois Is Just the Start
    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-state-pension-funding-ratios/

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    The fundamental goals of both countries [US & Israel] are regime change and destroying Syrian sovereignty. They partner in each other’s wars.

    Both seek regional hegemony, wanting independent Syria and Iran transformed into pro-Western vassal states, their hydrocarbon resources looted, their people subjugated, their countries balkanized for easier control.

    The road to Tehran runs through Damascus. The diabolical scheme involves taking down Syria first, naked aggression the strategy, isolating Iran, then launching a similar plan to replace Islamic Republic governance with pro-Western rule.

    That’s how imperialism works, the human cost of no consequence to achieve objectives. Russian objections and warnings to Washington and its rogue allies accomplish nothing.

    Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov calling White House “statements on Syrian armed forces getting ready to use chemical weapons…complete nonsense…assumptions based on nothing”, won’t deter whatever actions Washington may have in mind.

    http://21stcenturywire.com/2017/07/01/syria-washington-tel-aviv-riyadh-colluding-to-escalate-conflict-in-syria-and-beyond/

  9. jerry says:

    Got to wonder if the UK authorities will resort then to this?

    http://www.truthandaction.org/senate-passes-bill-requiring-citizens-report-privately-stashed-cash/

  10. Cliffhanger says:

    UK Household Incomes Fall Most In 40 Years, Savings Rates Crash
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ons-household-incomes-1970s-gdp-investment-services-a7815981.html

  11. Cliffhanger says:

    Due to the government shutdown in the State of New Jersey, all State Parks, Forests, Historic Sites, and Recreation Areas will be closed until further notice.
    http://www.nj.gov/dep/parksandforests/

    Happy 4th of July NJ

  12. psile says:

    http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/Oil-INvestments-Global-2017-06-29.jpg

    In the chart above, note the two successive drops in oil investment from 2014-2015 and then again into 2016. So far 2017 is shaping up for another successive decline, which will mark the only three-year decline in investment in oil’s entire history…

    This isn’t just a slump. It’s an historic slump.

    Link

    • Cliffhanger says:

    • Third World person says:

      have you notice world gdp also peaked in 2014 as per world bank
      http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

      • Cliffhanger says:

        Yes I don’t understand this chart. Someone said its because its in US dollars? Not sure what that means? And according to the IMF global gdp grew the last few years. So i dont understand why the two are not on the same page?

        • ITEOTWAWKI says:

          The US dollar has appreciated vs most currencies since the end of QE in the summer of 2014…if I take each country’s GDP in local currency and convert it in US dollars, then even if the country’s GDP grew in the last 3 years, it might not look that way when expressed in US dollars, since the local currency has depreciated vs the US…so I guess it’s how you look at World GDP, in US Dollars or total GDP of all country’s expressed in local currencies…in US dollars it might look flat but if you look at it with local currencies it might look like we grew since 2014…anyway that’s my take on it…

        • Yorchichan says:

          It’s simple. The chart for world GDP in US$ shows a decline because the US$ went up against most major currencies between 2014 and 2015. For example

          31/03/2014 €1 euro = US$1.37

          09/03/2015 €1 euro = US$1.05, a decrease of 30% in value.

          So unless the GDP in of the Eurozone (in €s) went up by more than 30% over this time (unlikely), it’s GDP denominated in US$ decreased.

          • Cliffhanger says:

            But it is very unusual based on the evidence of the US dollar rising for over the last fifty years. And now its declining? I still don’t understand the drop.

            • ITEOTWAWKI says:

              I would say it’s because the USA was a big chunk of the growth in World GDP in the last 50 years…that part of the World GDP was obviously expressed in US$…

            • Cliffhanger says:

              I emailed Gail. And she explained it somewhat. Basically its because inflation is negative she said. And she also said she will write an article about this.

            • timl2k11 says:

              It’s not rocket science. There’s a link on the right to view the chart in constant USD as well ass PPP instead of GDP.
              For example, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD

    • timl2k11 says:

      That’s is quite an amazing chart really. It also shows a historic run-up in oil investment. And yet, as the other chart there showed we have the driest 3 year span of new discoveries in history. This shows, I think, that all we have succeeded in doing is depleting our reserves more quickly.

      • psile says:

        Yes, we have merely suceeded in bringing forward the day of reckoning, as oil is consumed wildly by current generations on credit today, leaving far, far less for the future. This is how overshoot and collapse play out, as more and more people are being born as a result of the centuries-long growth party being thrown courtelsy of our one-time bounty of FF’s, but who will not have the resources to support themselves once collapse starts in earnest.

        Malthus Was An Optimist

    • Fast Eddy says:

      You gotta wonder if the drop is not even more severe than this… and we are not being told.

      If the public saw a chart that demonstrates exploration budgets were non-existent …. panic would set… even the stewpid cattle would recognize that as a death sentence.

      Surely there are no remaining conventional reserves that come in below break even — and if there were they would no doubt be so small as to be irrelevant…

      Recall this https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-giant-kazakh-oil-project-went-awry-1396233341

      If that is what is left to exploit — and that is the result — then why would Big Oil even bother …

      Me thinks granny’s income stream has dried up — and she’s withdrawing hunks of her cash on deposit to make it through each month….

      • Cliffhanger says:

        And don’t forget the huge 97% drop in investors cash into the shale industry that happened this month. Add those two together and you have a massive drop in investment.

      • psile says:

        http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/Oil-discovereies-decline-2017-06-29.jpg

        “Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70 years, according to the International Energy Agency, which warned that both trends could continue this year.

        Oil discoveries declined to 2.4 billion barrels in 2016, compared with an average of 9 billion barrels per year over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the volume of conventional resources sanctioned for development last year fell to 4.7 billion barrels, 30% lower than the previous year as the number of projects that received a final investment decision dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s.”

        Source

        And we’ve seen this graph too…the nutcracker is coming.

        http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/Oil-Discoveries-at-low-2017-06-29_22-36-04.jpg

        • i1 says:

          We’ve moved beyond oil.

        • Cliffhanger says:

          2.4 billion barrels discovered is hand to mouth. That is not even a full month’s worth of world consumption. This is like going to the bar at 7pm and being hammered by 9:30. There is no way we are going to make it last call. let alone live to drink another day.

        • timl2k11 says:

          Something missing from that chart, I presume, is the quality of the discoveries. What kinds of finds are these as of late? Are shale “discoveries” counted? Is the extra heavy crude in the Orinoco belt that will probably never be touched counted? As bad as this graph looks it may yet be much worse when quality is also considered.

      • Cliffhanger says:

        WOW Eddy! You really do see through the matrix well. Check out this article today .

        Oil Company Wins Over Investors by Promising to Stop Looking for Oil
        https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-company-wins-over-investors-by-promising-to-stop-looking-for-oil-1498910581

        CALGARY—One of the best-performing oil companies in the past year is gaining favor with investors in part by embracing an unusual strategy: promising not to reinvest in its core business “in the foreseeable future.

        “We’ve decided to let the shareholders see the cash,” Chief Executive Steve Williams said in an interview. v

  13. Cliffhanger says:

    The Looming Energy Shock
    The next oil crisis will arrive in 3 years or less

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/109505/looming-energy-shock utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

    • ITEOTWAWKI says:

      I would not pay a dime to read his Part 2: Preparing For The Coming Shock which is behind PP’s pay wall (did not even bother with his Part 1 with his “The world economy collapses first, thus pushing off an oil price shock by a few years (or longer, given the severity of the collapse)…NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEXT….)

      in fact I would not read it if Martenson paid me to read it….

      • Cliffhanger says:

        what do you disagree about it?

        • Bergen Johnson says:

          Yeah, I’d like to know what the disagreement is too. Seems like the graphs are pretty clearly indicating the trend. In a sense the shock of what is to come is because the glut just isn’t going away quickly or via low oil price, so the only alternative is to continue to greatly reduce upstream investment in new sources to draw down current ones and get back to higher prices. Once the price shock hits new investment for exploration will be available, but the rubber band sling shot effect of the time needed to get those new sources (if even available) will be going on while the world economy reels from a sky high oil price at a time of unprecedented global debt. Not just US or US & Japan, or US, Japan & EU but the entire planet has gone nuts for juicing the economy with digital conjured up debt. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of trouble.

        • ITEOTWAWKI says:

          Simple really….when the world economy collapses everything shuts down…the end….and he talks about oil trading lower…were talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like flies in short order….

          • Cliffhanger says:

            I thought the same thing. Just wanted to make sure. But I think that is why he said “or longer depending upon the scale of the collapse”.

    • Tim Groves says:

      You’re saying we may have three more Christmases yet to come?

      http://i.memecaptain.com/gend_images/k7NdCw.jpg

  14. Cliffhanger says:

    UK is the worst-performing advanced economy in the world, official figures confirm

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-economy-world-worst-performing-advanced-countries-state-g7-european-union-a7817046.html

  15. JT Roberts says:

    Evidence continues to mount Gail. Renewables will never run the grid. Wind and PV are the most productive at the lowest demand periods.

    http://euanmearns.com/peak-demand-and-the-winter-wind/

    • xabier says:

      Excellent article.

      These turbines are just so absurd, and it does indeed become ever more apparent how false the claims made for them are.

      The answer,in Britain, is clearly going to be wearing thermal underwear, and maybe piling extra dogs (not logs) on the bed – canines are a wonderful heat source! All very British.

  16. Bergen Johnson says:

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/30/politics/trump-moon-jae-in-rose-garden/

    Trump: US patience with the North Korean regime ‘is over’

    Ok, everybody, it’s time for a good laugh over bellicose yet empty threats against NK. We’ve been over this ad infinitum. No military action can be taken against NK because it would mean the destruction of Seoul South Korea and 100’s of thousands of the people that live there. So why does Trump persist in bellowing air without any real action? Apparently he thinks it makes him look powerful and that’s what this is about apparently. How it looks in the moment, not what actually happens.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Are you just posting this to distract attention from “Bleeding Mika Gate”?

      I could post the information on how the US could take down NK without a shot being fired. But that’s classified “Top Secret — Do Not Open Even at Xmas!” and so I’d have to run to the nearest Ecuadorian Embassy and ask for sanctuary there.

      • Bergen Johnson says:

        Everything is considered a distraction these days, because not only are IQ’s declining but attention span has dropped to micro seconds, and so people just can’t help themselves by being distracted in every direction they head, by every headline. See, I’ve even been distracted from the very article I posted a link to. It’s contagious. Maybe the final epitaph for human society will be: We got so easily distracted, falling prey to all kinds of emotions to try and entertain ourselves, civilization collapsed.

        Meanwhile, back to the topic that started this; Empty rhetoric against NK doesn’t in and of itself achieve anything, but people seem to forget Trump said all this same stuff just a few weeks ago, and a few weeks before that… He’s no more effective at doing anything to deter NK from developing a nuclear arsenal capable of hitting the US than any of the previous presidents, yet he finds time to rail against the previous one, like he did worse with NK? HUH?! How could both Obama and Trump doing nothing whatsoever other than empty rhetoric, be any different? Like we use to say when we were kids and someone threatened a fight, “Talk is cheap – now, throw some hands.”

  17. Ignore all the rambling comments one gets on here—including my own, and take some time out to listen to this radio broadcast on the state of the Middle East, by Jeremy Bowen.

    The link below is to the last episode, of 15 minutes, there have been 25 episodes spread over 5 weeks, each 15 minutes long. This last one make tough listening, but listen anyway.

    You can catch up the rest in stages as you feel able to. (not easy) Jeremy pulls no punches, and tells it like it is, and how it’s going to be

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08w0zn6

    • Cliffhanger says:

      Thank you Norman. I enjoyed your book as well

    • Bergen Johnson says:

      The Middle East is a mess, has been a mess for thousands of years and will continue to be a mess for thousands of years…………………………………………………………….

      • xabier says:

        The Middle East shows human nature, pure and simple.

        Tribalism and ethnicity as the most important factor, ancient historical hatreds, often with very good cause, but no one able to let go of their hatred even when it proves to be self-destruction.

        Even the various regional empires have been rather unstable and ramshackle, based on plunder – Ottoman Turkey for instance, which was mal-administration brought to a high art.

        We can be very grateful to live in countries where tribalism was eliminated and centralisation was ruthlessly imposed – and maintained – quite some time ago: in England since the 11th century, (the brilliant psychopath William the Conqueror) one of the most successful states that has ever existed.

        • lol

          it’s getting less common now—but try going into a pub (as an Englishman) in North wales, and there’s a good chance everyone will start speaking welsh.
          in Northern Ireland, morons are still trying to killi each other over religious beliefs, with 12ft high walls to keep factions apart

          Just sayin

          • xabier says:

            My only Welsh friend adamantly refuses to speak or read Welsh.

            She hates the nationalists, who made her waste hours in the classroom learning to say ‘A bag of fish and chips, please.’ in the Bardic tongue (but not tongue of The Bard -she loves Shakespeare). 🙂

            • I’m only 15 miles or so from the welsh border—so I have to keep an eye on my flocks of sheep and wimminfolk
              just like Sarah Palin, I can see wales from my bedroom window.

              until a few years ago, english roadsigns in wales were always being painted over in green

            • Ed says:

              I stand with the opposed peoples of Wales, Cornwall, and Scotland yearning to breathe free.

            • i’m doing voluntary work on rebuilding offa’s dyke

  18. Artleads says:

    Again, FWIW.

    Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community
    Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
    Daniel R. Coats – Director of National Intelligence
    update: June 11, 2017

    Extracts from full report. Full report has CIA details on every country and group.

    Genome Editing
    The development of genome-editing technologies is accelerating the rate at which we can develop new approaches to address medical, health, industrial, environmental, and agricultural challenges and revolutionize biological research. However, the fast pace of development and broad range of applications are likely to challenge governments and scientific communities alike to develop regulatory and ethical frameworks or norms to govern the responsible application of the technology.
    Internet of Things
    The widespread incorporation of “smart” devices into everyday objects is changing how people and machines interact with each other and the world around them, often improving efficiency, convenience, and quality of life. Their deployment has also introduced vulnerabilities into both the infrastructure that they support and on which they rely, as well as the processes they guide: Cyber actors have already used for distributed denial-of-service (DDoS)attacks, and we assess they will continue, in the future, state and non-state actors will likely use in devices to support intelligence operations or domestic security or to access or attack targeted computer networks.
    Counterspace Weapons. The global threat of electronic warfare (EW) attacks against space systems will expand in the coming years in both number and types of weapons. Development will very likely focus on jamming capabilities against dedicated military satellite communications (SATCOM), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging satellites, and enhanced capabilities against Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as the US Global Positioning System (GPS). Blending of EW and cyber-attack capabilities will likely expand in pursuit of sophisticated means to deny and degrade information networks. Chinese researchers have discussed methods to enhance robust jamming capabilities with new systems to jam commonly used frequencies. Russia Intends to modernize Its EW forces and field a new generation of EW weapons by 2020. Iran and North Korea are also enhancing their abilities to disrupt military communications and navigation.
    The Arctic
    Arctic countries face an array of drilling/resource extraction opportunities as diminishing sea ice increases commercial shipping prospects and possible competition over undersea resources in coming decades. In August 2016, the first large-capacity cruise ship traversed the Northwest Passage, and more such trips are planned. In September 2016, NASA measured the Arctic sea ice minimum extent at roughly 900,000 square miles less than the 1981-2010 average. Relatively low economic stakes in the past and fairly well established exclusive economic zones (EEZs) among the Arctic states have facilitated cooperation in pursuit of shared interests in the region, even as polar ice has receded and Arctic-capable technology has improved. However, as the Arctic becomes more open to shipping and commercial exploitation, we assess that risk of competition over access to sea routes and resources, including fish, will include countries traditionally active in the Arctic as well as other countries that do not border on the region but increasingly look to advance their economic interests there.
    HUMAN SECURITY
    Environmental Risks and Climate Change
    The trend toward a warming climate is forecast to continue in 2017. The Unfold Meteorological Organization (WMO) is warning that 2017 is likely to be among the hottest years on record—although slightly less warm than 2016 as the strong Ei Nino conditions that influenced that year have abated. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) reported that 2016 was the hottest year since modern measurements began in 1880. This warming is projected to fuel more intense and frequent extreme weather events that will be distributed unequally in time and geography. Countries with large populations in coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to tropical weather events and storm surges, especially in Asia and Africa.
    Global air pollution is worsening as more countries experience rapid industrialization, urbanization, forest burning, and GMO-Agricultural waste incineration, according to the World Health Organization(WHO). An estimated 92 percent of the world’s population Add to dictionary where WHO air quality standards are not met, according to 2014 information compiled by the WHO. People in low-income cities are most affected, with the most polluted cities located in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Public dissatisfaction with air quality (see McPherson) speaking against authorities, such as those seen in recent years in China, India, and Iran.
    Heightened tensions overshared water resources are likely in some regions. The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the construction of the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)on the Nile is likely to intensify because Ethiopia plans to begin filling the reservoir in 2017.
    Global biodiversity will likely continue to decline due to habitat loss, overexploitation, pollution, and invasive species, according to a study by nongovernmental conservation organization, disrupting ecosystems that support life, including humans. Since 1970, vertebrate populations have declined an estimated 60 percent, according to the same study, whereas populations in freshwater systems declined
    13
    more than 80 percent. The rate of species loss worldwide Is estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than the natural background extinction rate, according to peer-reviewed scientific literature.
    We assess national security Implications of climate change but do not adjudicate the science of climate change. In assessing these Implications, we rely on US government-coordinated scientific reports, peer reviewed literature, and reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which Is the leading International body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change.
    Health
    The Zika viral contagion will continue to affect the Western Hemisphere through 2018. Although It Is causing minor or no Illness for most Infected people. It Is producing severe birth defects In about 10 percent of babies born to mothers who were Infected while pregnant and Is likely causing neurological symptoms for a small number of Infected adults. A separate strain of the virus will likely continue to affect Southeast

    Putin will seek to prevent any challenges to his rule in the run-up to presidential elections scheduled for 2018. Putin remains popular at home, but low turnout in the Duma elections in 2016 and sustained economic hardship will probably enhance Putin’s concerns about his ability to maintain control. Putin is likely to continue to rely on repression, state control over media outlets, and harsh tactics to control the political elite and stifle public dissent.

    • QUOTE: …….sustained economic hardship will probably enhance Putin’s concerns about his ability to maintain control. Putin is likely to continue to rely on repression, state control over media outlets, and harsh tactics to control the political elite and stifle public dissent……

      That’s straight out of the US playbook, maybe 5 / 10 years hence

      Whoever is POTUS will have no option, because deteriorating economic conditions will result in imposition of martial law—it might be called something else–but that is what it will be.

      already central government is demanding voter data from states–including political affliations—surely that should ring alarm bells ???

      When Hit–ler came to power, meticulous existing record keeping told him exactly where to find people he didn’t like.—and that was when everything was on paper.

      imagine what it will be like in this era

      • Artleads says:

        True. Maybe it’s that the US has a huge historical overlay of “democracy” that Russia doesn’t. So it’s hard for many to see the sweeping coup that the GOP takeover and the zombified Dems have already enabled. There’s this hopeless veneer of law and civility that’s amazingly enduring despite the gutting of every significant “right” in this country. The US is running on the fumes of civil society.

      • Tim Groves says:

        What Norman says. Yes! The police state with a file on everyone and their pet budgerigar’s political beliefs is not something anyone wants to do just for the sake of it. Deteriorating economic conditions and an increasingly unhappy and disgruntled population coupled with decreasing social/national loyalty and increasing access to all sorts of nasty toys will make a repressive strategy and harsh tactics essential for maintaining public order in the US.

        In the Philippines, of course, they have a come up with a rather less thoroughgoing solution although it may work for them.

        The Philippine House of Representatives has approved a bill making enthusiastic singing of the national anthem compulsory. “The singing shall be mandatory and must be done with fervour,” the bill states. The word “mandatory” is not in the existing legislation.
        It also provides official music for the tune, which must be adhered to.

        Punishment for breaking the rules could include a fine of 50,000-100,000 pesos (£780-£1,560; $2,800-$5,590). That fine is substantially more than the current minimum and maximum of 5,000-20,000 pesos (£78-£312).

        Offenders will also be issued a warning before being publicly “named and shamed” in a national newspaper. “Any act which casts contempt, dishonour or ridicule upon the national anthem shall be penalised,” the bill says.

        http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40415778

        An abandoned wooden building supported by pillars infested with termites can continue standing for many years, until one day a strong wind or a heavy snowfall collapse it like a house of cards.

    • Artleads says:

      I’ve been wondering how we get class thinking integrated with energy and psycho-cultural thinking.

    • xabier says:

      I’m all for the police: ever seen a place occupied by criminals? (Cue: post picture of Fed or ECB).

      Lefties who think like this have on the whole never faced real criminals, en masse.

      Bourgeois civilisation for me, thank you very much! Thin is the ice on which we stand…….

    • timl2k11 says:

      Good grief. Just. Quit.

    • Tim Groves says:

      If you’re driving tour own car rather than Miss Daisy’s, then you are de facto a member of at least the petit bourgeoise. Even Solomon in all his glory never enjoyed the luxury of air-conditioned motorized transport quipped with access to 110 flavors of BGM plus talk radio.

      • xabier says:

        The Workers Demand That Their Multiple Private Cars, International Holidays, Pensions, Healthcare and i-Phones Never Stop!

        Oh dear, I think Socialism has lost it’s edge a little. Bourgeois and they don’t know it.

        • JMS says:

          “Tout le rêve de la démocratie est d’élever le prolétaire au niveau de bêtise du bourgeois.” Gustave Flaubert

          • JMS says:

            Of course, when Flaubert says “democracy” he is referring to liberalism. In nineteenth century people tended to use the two words indiscriminately.

          • ITEOTWAWKI says:

            Haha love it…and the libtards (of which I was very much one till I woke up) of today are probably even more “bête” than those days…but that applies to the “prolétaires” as well (in fact even more probably so, but at least they don’t see themselves as illuminated like the libtards…)

            • JMS says:

              I believe the workers are today much more dumb and culturally alienated than in the nineteenth century. In the past they had at least their own culture and traditions, their own music and dance and stories. And in many cases they had pride in their work, they saw themselves as valid and capable and resilient people, and felt their lifes as meaningful and full (albeit hard and short). Today the working class is a sad flock of depressed and confused sheep, with no joy nor pride in themselves, with no sense of belonging and communion, and, worst of all, with no hope in a rosy future (and rightly so). What they have is a phony culture, fabricated by sellers of dreams and entertainment.

  19. dolphthedestroyer says:

    It’s kind of painful to watch this.
    So, Illinois, where did the money go? It went right back to Wall Street and Washington D.C., where it originates. Since they create and circulate all the money, they can withdraw it as well.

    Remember – the federal government doesn’t run out of money. The individual states, on the other hand, depend on taxation to pay back their loans – so if the denizens go broke, it first shows up at the state level.

    There’s where to expect the dysfunction in the land of the free and home of the brave first.

    Coming soon to all 50 states.

  20. “Smart Transformers Will Make the Grid Cleaner and More Flexible
    “The solid-state transformer is poised to remake the electrical distribution grid”
    http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/smart-transformers-will-make-the-grid-cleaner-and-more-flexible?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=28cf91df63-The_Download&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-28cf91df63-153961373

    On & on it goes — but, when/where has an AC power grid been run on IRE (intermittent renewable energy — wind, solar, tides, etc.)?

  21. jerry says:

    grave is the situation for this to occur
    https://youtu.be/HH-Z7-PMIwI

  22. Third World person says:

    only way ic can be saved is the thing called cheap nuclear fusion

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Signs Of An Auto Bubble: Dealer Literally Offers “Low Credit Score Discount”

    “April 2017 Pricing on all new vehicles may include up to $1500 in finance rebates…offer is Credit Score based and you must be below 620 to qualify.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-29/signs-auto-bubble-dealer-literally-offers-low-credit-score-discount

    Attention All Bums – Losers — Meth Addicts — Alcoholics — Unemployed Mentally Disabled People Living Under Bridges… Attention All Zombies…

    Stumble down to your local Dodge Dealer now for special offers on our brand new 2017 vehicles. No money required. No job required. In fact if you have a job or money don’t tell us – because we don’t want you — you will not qualify for the LOW LIFE DISCOUNT.

    Step right up … step right up … no need to push … we got more cars parked on a thousand acre lot right up the road…. enough for everyone

    • Plus in many countries similar scheme is even supported-collared from the other end via mandatory scraping of older carz, hence certain balance on the market is forced through. Clearly, a fantastic circular system to have if you can keep it, and evidently they CAN prolong it for a while more..

      You see sudden universal collapse is more like an ideal theoretical shortcut concept.
      In reality, it’s more like an old silent movie car chase in which the metal and traction parts are flying and falling off the carz in the race, some unlucky drivers might event prematurely crash, but the core pack is still madly driving, driving and driving, even-tough in increasingly derelict shape and form.

  24. el mar says:

    Fuel cells: 30 by 30?
    What do you think?
    http://blog.ballard.com/sustainable-mobility

    Saludos

    el mar

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Well… if the scientists are saying so … and if this appeared in the MSM… then yes…. I must agree it is imminent (sarc…)

    • psile says:

      Where will the feedstock come from to crack the water to fuel the hydrogen cells? The article doesn’t elaborate. Currently it comes from fossil fuels, mainly nat. gas, since hydrogen itself is a net energy loser.

    • Jesse James says:

      More wishful thinking meant to delude the masses into massive investments and subsidies. Hydrogen is not a fuel that is available. It has to be made, using … guess what?….POWER. Guess where the power comes from?

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    Yes I believe the the leaked report where the warming scientists admitted their numbers were dramatically wrong is a real report.

    And yes I believe that the whistleblower who exposed the cover up by the warming scientists is real. That they really did FAKE their numbers.

    And yes – because of this — and for other reasons that I have laid out including the one where the MSM pounds the drum on an issue that has no solution … so why bother at all?…..

    Lead me to conclude that global warming is not going to destroy the planet …. our burning of fossil fuels has some impact — but as the scientists ADMIT — it is far less than we anticipated.

    That is where the facts evidence and logic lead me.

    Let me get the term right — it is not global warming — it is climate change.

    We need to be consistent on this — climate change was the new term the scientists came up with when they found that the planet was warming far less than they expected — when they found that in fact some parts of the planet were actually getting colder!!!

    ‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.’

    If I were a climate change scientist — and I ran the numbers and realized I had been so profoundly WRONG…. what would I do?

    Well — I would start to rationalize…. I would come up with excuses…. I would tweak things changing global warming to climate change…. I might cover up some of the worst stuff….

    Basically I would do ‘whatever it takes’ to ensure that pay cheque hits my account every month…. because this is all I know…

    And heaven forbid I ended up pumping gasoline if the climate change industry collapsed…. the irony would be profound!!!!

    • bELIEBER says:

      yes, yes…. Monsanto has the answer.

      How many independent scientists are there? Who pays their salary?

      Eat, drink and be merry, for you have been lied too – as always.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You got it.

        The more times the lie is repeated — the more people believe it.

        Don Draper knows this — that’s why he is constantly planting stories in the MSM on topics such as Tesla is Awesome…. Solar is replacing Coal…. Global Warming… uh hum… Climate Change (sorry Don… my bad) is Destroying the Planet…. Mars is our Future Home…. Iraq had WMD… Assad is a Monster… Putin Fixed the US Elections….

        It’s called Making the Matrix… influencing what we think … what we believe.

        It is powerful — very few even recognize what is happening — almost nobody completely escapes.

        And one never knows if one has completely escaped.

        I really should have pursued a career in PR…. by now I might have been in a senior management position — high enough to see the master plans…. to behold the matrix in power point presentations.

        • bELIEBER says:

          You know what happened to the inventor of the Infinite Improbability Drive?

          • bELIEBER says:

            The creation of the Infinite Improbability Drive was equally clever. I quote:

            The principle of generating small amounts of finite improbability by simply hooking the logic circuits of a Bambleweeny 57 sub-meson Brain to an atomic vector plotter suspended in a strong Brownian Motion producer (say a nice hot cup of tea) were of course well understood.

            I’ll summarize the next bit, shall I?

            Most respectable physicists were frustrated, partially because this was a misuse of science, but mostly because they didn’t get invited to those kind of parties. Also, they couldn’t successfully generate the infinite improbability needed to fling a ship across the vast distances between stars. Finally, they declared it a virtual impossibility and went home.

            One night, a student left to clean up after a particularly unsuccessful party, found himself reasoning as follows: if such a machine is a virtual impossibility, it must be a finite improbability. So all I’d need to do is work out exactly how improbable it is, feed that number into the finite improbability generator, give it a fresh cup of really hot tea, and turn it on!

            He was then rather startled to discover that he’d created the long-sought Infinite Improbability Drive out of thin air.

            Back to quoting:

            It startled him even more when, just after he was awarded the Galactic Institute’s Prize for Extreme Cleverness, he got lynched by a rampaging mob of respectable physicists who had finally realized that the one thing they really couldn’t stand was a smart-ass.

            That, my friends, is an excellent example of research successfully applied.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Bizarre Tanker Cooperation Prompts Questions If Qatar, Saudi Feud Is Staged

          Either the blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia and its allies (recall the Saudi ultimatum expires on July 3) and the whole Qatar “crisis” is the most staged and produced diplomatic stunt since last summer’s Turkish “coup”, or for some unknown reason, the worse the diplomatic relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia get, the more they cooperate in the only industry that matters for Saudi Arabia.

          http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-30/bizarre-tanker-cooperation-prompts-questions-if-qatar-saudi-feud-staged

          It is so difficult to work out if you are being played or not….

    • jeremy890 says:

      You “believe” Fast Eddy….yes, humans, in general, can believe in some fashion foolish fabricated ideas about their situation in life. You are no exception. Did you do a fact check about that leaked report? Or did you take “The Daily Mail” word for it?

      This are the FACTS….

      In an article in today’s Mail on Sunday, David Rose makes the extraordinary claim that “world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data”, accusing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of manipulating the data to show more warming in a 2015 study by Tom Karl and coauthors.

      What he fails to mention is that the new NOAA results have been validated by independent data from satellites, buoys and Argo floats and that many other independent groups, including Berkeley Earth and the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, get effectively the same results

      https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-mail-sundays-astonishing-evidence-global-temperature-rise

      This is a guest post by Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst at Berkeley Earth, an independent temperature analysis project.

      It’s a lengthy detailed article with numerous charts and explanations, unlike the ones Fast Eddy posted…read it.

      In conclusion,
      The “astonishing evidence” that David Rose purports to reveal in no way changes our understanding of modern warming or our best estimates of recent rates of warming. It does not in any way change the evidence that policymakers have at their disposal when deciding how to address the threats posed by climate change.

      If anything, there is strong independent evidence that NOAA’s new record may be the most accurate one over the last two decades, at least for the two-thirds of the world covered in ocean

      So, don’t be so gullible.

      • Harry Gibbs says:

        David Rose is not a credible source. We can debate the extent of the anthropogenic influence but climate change is very real and constitutes an additional and worsening pressure on the financial system. The entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet may well be fatally compromised already and we are getting perilously close to a Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic.

        Global dimming is also real and the sudden loss of it in the context of the sort of rapid collapse many of us on this blog anticipate is a sobering prospect.

        • jeremy890 says:

          Thank you, Mr. Gibbs, for your comment.
          Saw this posted

          Some science on the human contribution to climate change
          “Consistent with the last IPCC assessment report, we find that most of the observed warming over this period (+0.65 K) is attributable to anthropogenic forcings (+0.67 ± 0.12 K, 90 % confidence range), with a very limited contribution from natural forcings (−0.01±0.02 K).”
          https://link.springer.com/e

          Cuurent climate change is almost completely attributable to human activities

          “So how do scientists use the method to confirm that humans are causing global warming? Since 1800, CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere has risen 40%. The obvious source of the added carbon is the 330 billion tons that we know fossil fuel combustion has added to the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. Yet global warming deniers deny the obvious cause-and-effect connection

          Now the final bad news: dimming has been keeping us cooler.

          Global dimming has been artificially suppressing global warming. The same thing that has been causing global warming — burning fossil fuels as if they are inexhaustible fairy farts that produce nothing but rainbows — has been causing global dimming for the most part. Once the generation and transportation industries stop pumping pollution and CO2 into the air, the dimming problem will go away pretty quickly, but the CO2 will linger for a couple of hundred years. That means that sunlight which currently isn’t getting to the ground, being reflected as infrared and being absorbed by excess CO2 today, will be tomorrow. That means that the temperature inhibitor of dimming will be removed and it will get potentially a degree or two warmer.

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/05/18/how-can-we-stop-global-dimming/#2b7f53561990

          Boy, is going to get knee deep interesting!

        • xabier says:

          Exactly, Mr Gibbs, exactly.

          And I for one am always taken aback at how the noisy global warming debate distracts from all the other ominous indicators: air, soil and water quality, immense, staggering, volumes of plastic crap, spread of plant diseases, social and political implications of automation, etc.

          • timl2k11 says:

            If one wants to truly appreciate the madness of it all the “silent” (nothing but an excellent film score) documentary “Koyaanisqatsi” is quite excellent.

          • Artleads says:

            ++++++++++++++++ Nearest thing to a like button. But warming is hell on wheels too where plant and human disease is concerned. It’s a whole cluster…. of integrated systems going down at once.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              ‘And I for one am always taken aback at how the noisy global warming debate distracts from all the other ominous indicators: air, soil and water quality, immense, staggering, volumes of plastic crap, spread of plant diseases, social and political implications of automation, etc.’

              Once again … as Gail has suggested…. that is the purpose of why we are endlessly fed the global warming dog food…

              It takes our minds off of real issues — it also gets packaged with the fake solutions — and it leaves us all:

              http://ww3.hdnux.com/photos/10/37/23/2225406/7/920×920.jpg

            • Artleads says:

              But, yes, going after GW first, or directly, makes no sense. It remind me of a phrase I heard here a lot: pushing on a string… Lots of better things to do meanwhile.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Que sera sera

          Anyone stopped driving a car?

          • jeremy890 says:

            David Rose of the Daily Mail certainly hasn’t…. the source of your Climate Science

            DeSmog previously reported on David Rose’s “misinformation legacy,” pointing to an article by The Guardian’s George Monbiot who summed up Rose’s errors over time. Monbiot also wrote of Rose’s potential role in the Iraq war, noting that The Observer “was strongly influenced by Rose’s reporting” at the time. “Rose’s articles for the paper uncritically reported the claims made by Ahmed Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress about Saddam Hussein’s alleged weapons of mass destruction. Chalabi later admitted that they were incorrect,” Monbiot wrote. [8], [9]

            “Since the Iraq debacle, Rose has latterly been writing articles attacking climate science for the Daily Mail. He has distinguished himself by the same uncritical reliance on dodgy sources that caused his catastrophic mistakes about Iraq,” Monbiot added.

            In 2013, Media Matters named Rose’s publication, the Daily Mail “2013 Climate Change Misinformer of the Year” for its stirring up of “faux controversies about climate science.” In 2014, Greenpeace made an official release noting that David Rose is “not a credible source.” [10], [11]

            But Mister Ed thinks he’s winning

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The MSM got WMD wrong.

              Yet you and others keep posting articles from the MSM that prove global warming is a problem.

              The MSM tells us the solar is a solution

              The MSM tells us that Tesla is a solution.

              The MSM tells us that there is full employment in the US.

              The MSM tells us that the economy is recovering.

              The MSM tells us that we can colonize Mars

              You do not believe any of that (I assume) but you continue to believe what the MSM tells you re global warming.

              Once again:

              Climate scientists admit they were wrong – that the climate has barely warmed in two decades

              Climate scientists were exposed as liars by one of their own. They faked results.

            • Jeremy says:

              Looks like your boy, David Rose, is in with them, Mister Ed, LOL. Connect the Dots..shouldn’t be too difficult for the likes of you…
              https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R47L5TKzKuU

              Yep, the msm….all controlling

          • Artleads says:

            According to climate scientist Kevin Anderson, who refuses to fly, the the business of keeping temps below 2 degrees C (however relevant or not that number is) concerns what the top small % do and isn’t affected by ordinary people driving cars.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              ‘As of 2010 there were more than one billion motor vehicles in use in the world excluding off-road vehicles and heavy construction equipment. Global vehicle ownership per capita in 2010 was 148 vehicles in operation per 1000 people.’

              Yes of course if you believe in global warming then this would not have any impact… nor would using electricity ….

              Who is this clown? Or right – he is a global warming scientist… they make shit up all the time…

            • timl2k11 says:

              What rubbish!. I guess it’s always about what OTHER people are doing. His refusal to fly has no impact whatsoever on global w.arm.ing. Maybe flying just gave him too much cognitive dissonance, i.e. “Crap! I’m part of the problem!”
              I watched Leonardo DiCrapio’s “Before the Flood” recently. It was always about “What can OTHER people do about it?” “What can the third world do about it?” Good greif!

      • Tim Groves says:

        Lord give me the strength to resist the urge to roll in the mud with these DelusiSTANIs!!

        The earth is not undergoing any dangerous warming. The Arctic ice is not in a death spiral. The West Antarctic is not going to collapse, and droughts, floods, record heat, famine and a general wailing and gnashing of teeth due to unseasonable weather are not going to occur because we refused to close down coal plants and ban SUVs.

        The smart folks at Berkeley Earth know all this very well. But their careers depend on keeping up the booga booga. No climate scare, and they are out on their ears and forced to find employment in the private sector. Chaucerian frauds, the lot of ’em.

        THE PARDONER’S TALE

        Prologue
        The prologue takes the form of a literary confession in the same manner as The Wife of Bath’s Prologue. However, rather than an apology for his vices, the Pardoner boasts of his duping of his victims, for whom he has nothing but contempt. He says that his “theme”—biblical text for a sermon—is Radix malorum est cupiditas (“Greed is the root of [all] evils” 1 Timothy 6.10).He explains that his false credentials consist of official letters from high-ranking church officials and a superficial use of a few Latin words: then he will produce some “relics”, and claim that among them is a bone which has miraculous powers when dipped into a well and a mitten for which:
        He that his hand wol putte in this mitayn,
        He shal have multipliyng of his greyn,

        But he will warn that any person that “hath doon synne horrible” will not be able to benefit from these relics. The Pardoner says to the pilgrims that by these tricks he has acquired a considerable sum of money. He goes on to relate how he stands like a clergy at the pulpit, and preaches against avarice but to gain the congregation’s money; he doesn’t care for the correction of sin or for their souls] Against anyone that offends either him or other pardoners, he will “stynge hym with my tonge smerte”. Although he is guilty of avarice himself, he reiterates that his theme is always Radix malorum … and that he can nonetheless preach so that others turn away from the vice and repent—though his “principal entente” is for personal gain. The Pardoner explains that he then offers many anecdotes to the “lewed [ignorant, unlearned] people”. He scorns the thought of living in poverty while he preaches; he desires “moneie, wolle, chese, and whete” and doesn’t care whether it were from the poorest widow in the village, even should her children starve for famine. Yet, he concludes to the pilgrims, though he may be a “ful vicious man”, he can tell a moral tale and proceeds.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pardoner%27s_Tale

        • Jeremy says:

          Timmie, next time you go off on the deep end, back it up with substance.
          You post a claim and tie it to politics with science….strange bedfellows.
          Z”The smart folks at Berkeley Earth know all this very well. But their careers depend on keeping up the booga booga. No climate scare, and they are out on their ears and forced to find employment in the private sector”.
          You must of forgotten that this In October 2011, Muller wrote in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, concerning his work with the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project:
          When we began our study, we felt that skeptics had raised legitimate issues, and we didn’t know what we’d find. Our results turned out to be close to those published by prior groups. We think that means that those groups had truly been very careful in their work, despite their inability to convince some skeptics of that. They managed to avoid bias in their data selection, homogenization and other corrections.
          Global warming is real. Perhaps our results will help cool this portion of the climate debate.
          BTW, their study was funded by the Koch Brothers
          So, in another words
          BEST’s initial bias was against AGW. A good portion of its funding came from The Koch Foundation.
          From Richard Mueller
          Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.
          Next

          • Tim Groves says:

            Jerry, you’ve nailed it. If I was running an NPO researching or auditing climate science results and I took funding from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, wouldn’t you call me on it?

            Berkeley Earth’s listed funders include the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, the Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research (created by Bill Gates) and The Ann & Gordon Getty Foundation. That’s quite enough for anyone who doesn’t like their output to quite reasonably dismiss it as political propaganda. If they’d come up with a more skeptical view of the climate scare, you’re lot would be screaming that they were a pack of Koch suckers, now wouldn’t you? Oh yes you would.

            Some of us still remember the attacks on the great Willie Soon.
            Here he is on the religion of CO2—a dangerous form of scientism.

            https://youtu.be/NziuVoJPQNk

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I think we need to stay away from these global warming models — because as we know — they are wrong and/or faked.

            If I was the sports presenter and I reported that the Yankees had beat the Red Sox 12-6 and you later found out that I was wrong – or that I faked those numbers so that my brother could win a bet…

            Would you still listen to me when I read the scores?

            Instead I would like to focus on what the global warming groupies are doing about the problem — and by that I don’t mean visiting web forums like FW and pounding the drum …. and telling everyone that they are ruining the planet…

            I am more interested in what they are doing to solve this supposed problem.

            For example….

            Did any of you decide not to have children because of this problem?

            Do any of you not drive cars because they are pollution machines?

            Do any of you not use electricity?

            Do any of you not go to the Mall and buy stuff?

            I am curious — because I would have thought that people who are so deeply passionate about this issue — would actually be trying to do something to solve it.

            The floor is yours…. I await news of the sacrifices you are making to save Mother

            • timl2k11 says:

              You keep forgetting FE to also ask people if they eat. That is the economic contribution no one can get away from.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes of course…. thanks for pointing that out.

              I guess the Global Warming Groupies are speechless…. defeated….. destroyed.

              It’s ok guys — like I said — there is nothing to feel guilty about.

        • psile says:

          You must be living on planet goofball, or me on planet bonzo. Not that it matters anyway…

          Global sea ice is at lowest level ever recorded

          https://d1o50x50snmhul.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16165558/picture1.jpg

          • Tim Groves says:

            You’re implying that one of us is a DelusiSTANI. Or possibly both. Not that I care. If somebody isn’t a global warming skeptic in 2017, I tend to discount their opinions on other matters too on the grounds that they are likely to be gullible and to fall too easily for emotional arguments, or that they have been living for a long time under a rock.

            How long has this global sea recording been going on then? Since you’ve treated us to the graph, you are presumably trying to make a point.

            Three short years ago, Antarctic sea ice reached a record high. This was dismissed at the time by various alarmist actors as in keeping with global warming. According to NASA: “Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.”

            So more ice or less ice makes no difference to alarmists. Whatever happens, they will always say it shows the world is warming in keeping with their projections. Which leads some of us to question what kind of looking-glass planet they are living on.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          You cannot win this Tim.

          Even the scientists who were warming of imminent doom …. have admitted they were wrong … their models were wrong … there has been minimal change in the climate vs the predictions that they made a couple of decades ago.

          But this is a massive industry now — it’s all tied together with renewable energy — electric vehicles… we are into the trillions of dollars… tens of thousands of people depend on this matrix for their pay cheques….

          The thing is…

          Some of the Green Groupies on FW have admitted there is no solution — but outside of FW there bloody well is a solution — pop onto the MSM any day of the week — and you will read about the solutions…

          The solutions are EVs and Solar and Wind.

          Let me give this a try… click Bloomberg … aha – front page: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries

          But only a retarded donkey could visit FW for any period of time and believe that EVs solar and wind are solutions…..

          So you are left with a logic problem — the MSM is telling you that we are destroying the planet by burning fossil fuels — then they are telling you what the solutions are….

          You believe a but not b….

          Did it not occur to you that perhaps a is as fake as b? Because you are certain b is fake.

          Did it not occur to you that you are being played?

      • Cliffhanger says:

        -As for being a “real citizen”, do you mean an uneducated, brainwashed, serf slave to TPTB? If that is your definition of a “real citizen” then I am proud to admit that I am not. I am outside that box and can see the real world. Try it, you might like it.

        • Tim Groves says:

          That’s your description of a “real citizen”, not mine. I’m not that fond of the great mass of people, but I don’t consider myself superior to or more clear seeing than them by virtue of not being inside their box. Any such self-evaluation would be a product of common or garden vanity.

          But i do share the opinon of Joseph A. Schumpeter:

          The typical citizen drops down to a lower level of mental performance as soon as he enters the political field. He argues and analyzes in a way which he would readily recognize as infantile within the sphere of his real interests. He becomes primitive again.

          We see this phenomenon online all the time.

  26. Cliffhanger says:

    It’s quite probable that we’re at peak total liquids right now but the weak economy has led to demand destruction already. If demand destruction continues it could stay ahead of depletion. That’s my wishful thinking anyway 🙂

  27. Cliffhanger says:

    The U$A has become “The Greatest Show on Earth” with all of it’s freaks and clowns performing for a dumbed down, drugged up, snowflake citizenry. Lies, corruption, death and destruction is now normal and obvious to anyone who bothers to look at declining America. Especially to anyone outside the U$ MSM Iron Curtain.

  28. Cliffhanger says:

    Clean Coal’s Flagship Project Has Failed

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608191/clean-coals-flagship-project-has-failed/

  29. Cliffhanger says:

    After $3 Billion Spent, Keystone XL Can’t Get Oil Companies to Sign On

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/29/after-3-billion-spent-keystone-xl-cant-get-oil-companies-to-sign-on.html

  30. Duncan Idaho says:

    Most of my comments are “Waiting Moderation”
    I must be doing something right!
    Someone is uncomfortable—

    • Ed says:

      Dunchan, I do find the Greenland Ice sheet data interesting. It seems too be the only fact in this painful screaming match.

      • the debate about whether global warming etc is at this level or that seems to be taking our collective eye off the ball.

        there are three converging doomworthy factors involved here

        climate change
        energy/resource depletion
        overpopulation

        concentrating on one of them doesn’t make the other two go away, either or all of them could (and will) clobber us in ways we cannot imagine as we sit around arguing about it. That was the first and most important point I made in my book The End of More. The title said exactly what our collective problem is….the certainty that “more” will always be available.

        all three must be brought into balance, or we are screwed. If there is a way I’d be interested to know about it, but as of now, world population is set to add 2bn by 2050, and double by 2100. Resource shortage/global heating will not allow that to happen, so sometime in the next 30 years, there has to be catastrophic reversal of our breeding habits using one or both of those factors….it might be proportions of each, but that is irrelevant.
        It has to happen, because population is already severely unbalanced.

        As I am fond of pointing out, without sufficient energy resources, this planet can carry 1 or 2bn at most at a ”renewable” level. 7 or 9 bn cannot be fed, because we currently eat oil, and ship food around using oil. Oil is getting too expensive to do that anymore. You cannot eat the output of windmills.
        In any event, we only have 20 years of oil left. We cannot vote to refill oilwells,

        It follows then, that 5bn + people don’t have a future here. Those 5bn are not going to roll over and conveniently die, so a fight for survival becomes inevitable sometime between now and 2050/60. I’d go for earlier, because collective fear will make us realise the meaning of empty supermarkets well before then.

        We currently call that fight for survival ”oil wars”–but don’t be fooled. The current carnage in the middle east is a dress rehearsal for the future, global warming or no global warming–though the mess in Syria was triggered by extended drought. That is now well established.
        Where next? Egypt? Horrendous population growth there. Saudi itself? Food supply dependent entirely on oil supply there. Without oil, 30m Saudis face death. They are not stupid, they know that, despite advocating ‘alternatives”.
        Young healthy people resist death by whatever means they have—it’s a trait common to all biological species.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        There is no discussion— my posts are blocked.

  31. Cliffhanger says:

    The New Darlings Of Wall Street: The Folly Of Oil Fracking Investing
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4084591-new-darlings-wall-street-folly-oil-fracking-investing

    • Fast Eddy says:

      We do not think the fracking industry is profitable at current oil price levels: only the willingness of investors and lenders to finance cash-burning operations keeps frackers afloat.

  32. JeremyT says:

    Brain warming on Gozo!

  33. Duncan Idaho says:

    Back to a lower level, and smaller box to live in:
    How about that bad day at the Dog Track down on Wall Street?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Duncan – I can make a circle a square using stats….

      Once again – these scientists have demonstrated they will lie and cheat.

      If the results do not match the expectations they will fake them.

      Those are FACTS.

      And I am to just look at a few graphs from the very scientists who lie — and conclude that the world is about to end?

      I guess if you watch CNN and BBC and read the Guardian long enough — you ignore these facts.

      Once again – I know where you are coming from — I never thought about this much because it does not matter — but I have become tired of listening to you and others hammer this site with the global warming bullshit — with your implied accusations that we are destroying the world.

      So I took a little bit of time — and I looked into the issue — and I found what I found.

      You obviously are going to ignore the FACTS. The FACTS do not matter. That these scientists have been caught lying does NOT matter to you. That the projections are completely wrong – and they admitted it — does NOT matter to you

      I would have thought that the issues I have raised regarding the credibility of these people would at least open the door of doubt a slight crack

      But clearly not. Because the FACTS do NOT matter. You simply dismiss the damaging information and regurgitate the same garbage that we know is wrong/corrupt.

      I will not waste medicine on the dead.

      I hope Trump kills all subsidies for solar and EVs — and takes that cash and subsidizes the extraction of monumental amounts of lignite coal …

      And he picks up a shovel and heaves some of it into the furnace — I’ll gladly lend a hand.

      Because Burning Coal is not going to kill us — it is going to keep us alive awhile longer.

      And if there is any damage done to the planet from burning this coal — the planet will easily deal with it.

      BURN MORE COAL NOW.

      F789 the Green Brigade – if they get in the way with a protest — shoot them down like dogs

      • Kurt says:

        As always, FE quotes an obscure out of date article and trolls madly to get his kicks. Back to the storage container and no turkey for you tonight.

      • jeremy890 says:

        Yes, very sad….unfortunate that those shaping public policy are pretty much of the same mindset. So, Mister Ed has one thing in common with the”Elders”, as he calls them.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          As I was saying in my previous comment — when people are in the matrix… and you try to explain to them that their world is not real… that they are no different than oxen with rings in their noses being pulled around by the MSM… told what to think…. without questioning…

          They get upset… angry…. steam comes out of their ears…. they could be driven to kill …

          Remember the Cultural Revolution?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        ‘Our temperature models predict that by ____ the temperature will increase ___’

        But you admitted your earlier models were massively wrong — you over-estimated…. and then because you were so wrong you changed your job from Chief Global Warming Scientist at the Global Warming Institute to Chief Climate Change Scientist ad the Climate Change Institute.

        Why should we believe that you have got the science right this time?

        ‘Well… um…. I have to admit — I don’t get paid if I don’t come up with a formula that demonstrates that we are going to cause the planet to go up in flames in the near future — the solar power and EV companies place these requirements directly into their funding contracts — and then there are these guys calling themselves the E.lders…. they say if I don’t come up with these conclusions … my funding gets cut off…. and then I starve’

        I see….

    • Jesse James says:

      Numerous questions have to be addressed with modern temperature data. Heat island effects are common. Some sensors are placed directly near runways such as at Heathrow airport, where the heat island effect could be severe. Many sensors are in cities. Data can be good data or suspect data. Interpretation of that data can be further questionable, especially with all of the GW data fraud that has been uncovered. Further, yearly data can vary…climate change can only be verified over centuries.

  34. Duncan Idaho says:

    Arctic climate warming higher and faster than expected
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/arctic-climate-warming-ice-report-1.4083728

    • jeremy890 says:

      But, but, but Mister Ed says he finished it off as a topic of interest…..

    • Fast Eddy says:

      That’s the problem when these scientists lie once —- recall the post I made earlier about how they covered up the fact that the global climate had not warmed at all since 2000?

      That makes it really difficult to believe anything they publish…. because they have been caught out lying….. by one of their own none the less.

      Here’s the thing…

      It’s bad enough to be completely wrong in your models — (at least they admitted they were wrong – so they should have moved into a different fields of science….)

      But it is a completely different story when you falsify your numbers — and you get caught red-handed.

      As a former you — this is enough to convince these scientists are corrupt

      No doubt they get huge amounts of funding to come up with results that demonstrate global warming is happening.

      I wonder how much cash the guys quoted in your article got to come up with those results — and because there is clearly wide spread corruption in the global warming industry —- I am going to assume they gamed their results.

      Funny how you guys claim over and over and over again that the deniers are wrong – and that you are right

      When the scientists you are quoting — have admitted they are wrong — and been caught out lying.

      Do you not see how ridiculous this makes you look?

      • david higham says:

        .’The climate had not warmed at all since 2000′
        Where do you obtain your misinformation from? Watts Up with that? I will go back over
        the last page or two of comments to see if I can find your link,but that statement is not
        correct. Fourteen of the fifteen hottest years on record have been in this century.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I will leave it to you to read the statements. I believe there is a link in that article to the full text released by the scientists admitting they were wrong.

          How about you start there.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Even using the warmest year in the 20th Century, it hasn’t stopped:
          http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5FvYtPOYKbY/VLmsJDSagtI/AAAAAAAAAQg/VCbwpHT5aqc/s1600/2014isontrend.png

        • jeremy890 says:

          2016 set a global heat record for the third year in a row according to NOAA and NASA, who held a joint press conference on Wednesday to discuss the record
          it also means 16 of the 17 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, according to NOAA.
          Temperatures over the Earth’s continents and oceans in 2016 were 1.1 degree Celsius (1.98 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average, according to the WMO. That means we are already a majority of the way to the 1.5-degree warming goal set at the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015.

          Hmm, so much for stopped Warming….you were mentioning FACTS

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Facts are a liberal conspiracy.
            However, don’t call me a liberal!

            “Liberals typically support existing systems and hope to make them more humane. Leftists focus on the unjust nature of the systems themselves. Two of these key systems are capitalism (an economic system that, to a leftist, celebrates inequality and degrades ecosystems) and imperialism (a global system in which First World countries have long captured a disproportionate share of the world’s wealth through violence and coercion).

            Liberals don’t oppose capitalism or U.S. imperialism, arguing instead for kinder-and-gentler versions. Leftists see the systems as incompatible with basic moral principles of social justice and ecological sustainability.”

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The Mail on Sunday today reveals astonishing evidence that the organisation that is the world’s leading source of climate data rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was timed to influence the historic Paris Agreement on climate change.

            A high-level whistleblower has told this newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it published the sensational but flawed report, aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.
            The report claimed that the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in global warming in the period since 1998 – revealed by UN scientists in 2013 – never existed, and that world temperatures had been rising faster than scientists expected. Launched by NOAA with a public relations fanfare, it was splashed across the world’s media, and cited repeatedly by politicians and policy makers.

            But the whistleblower, Dr John Bates, a top NOAA scientist with an impeccable reputation, has shown The Mail on Sunday irrefutable evidence that the paper was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data.

            It was never subjected to NOAA’s rigorous internal evaluation process – which Dr Bates devised.
            His vehement objections to the publication of the faulty data were overridden by his NOAA superiors in what he describes as a ‘blatant attempt to intensify the impact’ of what became known as the Pausebuster paper.

            His disclosures are likely to stiffen President Trump’s determination to enact his pledges to reverse his predecessor’s ‘green’ policies, and to withdraw from the Paris deal – so triggering an intense political row.

            In an exclusive interview, Dr Bates accused the lead author of the paper, Thomas Karl, who was until last year director of the NOAA section that produces climate data – the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) – of ‘insisting on decisions and scientific choices that maximised warming and minimised documentation… in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming pause, rushed so that he could time publication to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy’.

            Dr Bates was one of two Principal Scientists at NCEI, based in Asheville, North Carolina.

            More coming…

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The scandal has disturbing echoes of the ‘Climategate’ affair which broke shortly before the UN climate summit in 2009, when the leak of thousands of emails between climate scientists suggested they had manipulated and hidden data. Some were British experts at the influential Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              NOAA’s 2015 ‘Pausebuster’ paper was based on two new temperature sets of data – one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas.

              Both datasets were flawed. This newspaper has learnt that NOAA has now decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend.

              The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’.

              The paper relied on a preliminary, ‘alpha’ version of the data which was never approved or verified.

              A final, approved version has still not been issued. None of the data on which the paper was based was properly ‘archived’ – a mandatory requirement meant to ensure that raw data and the software used to process it is accessible to other scientists, so they can verify NOAA results.

              Dr Bates retired from NOAA at the end of last year after a 40-year career in meteorology and climate science. As recently as 2014, the Obama administration awarded him a special gold medal for his work in setting new, supposedly binding standards ‘to produce and preserve climate data records’.

              Yet when it came to the paper timed to influence the Paris conference, Dr Bates said, these standards were flagrantly ignored.

              The paper was published in June 2015 by the journal Science. Entitled ‘Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus’, the document said the widely reported ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ was a myth.

              Less than two years earlier, a blockbuster report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which drew on the work of hundreds of scientists around the world, had found ‘a much smaller increasing trend over the past 15 years 1998-2012 than over the past 30 to 60 years’. Explaining the pause became a key issue for climate science. It was seized on by global warming sceptics, because the level of CO2 in the atmosphere had continued to rise.

              There are many more pages on this here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html

              In summary – the temperature measurements are flawed (and you give me more temperature measurements to refute that!!!!) — the impact on the planet is far less than what was expected — so the scientists covered this up.

              A whistleblower exposed it.

              Of course if Ed Snowden exposes the NSA is spying on you — you are all over that.

              But when a climate scientist exposes the fraud within his community — you close your eyes.

              This is what Lib TARDS do….

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data

            The Mail on Sunday can reveal a landmark paper exaggerated global warming

            It was rushed through and timed to influence the Paris agreement on climate change

            America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration broke its own rules

            The report claimed the pause in global warming never existed, but it was based on misleading, ‘unverified’ data

            Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.html#ixzz4lTAUbw47

            I know that is a long piece of analysis — and that you climate people are more attuned to Big Bold Headlines in the MSM Screaming The World is Ending – Stop Burning Coal…

            But it is a good read… and does contact facts and a great amount of detail

        • Tim Groves says:

          Fourteen of the fifteen hottest years on record have been in this century.

          Nonsense claim. It is impossible to measure accurately the entire planet’s temperature. Even to estimate your temperature David, we’d need to have an anal and an oral reading, and you are of negligible size compared to the Earth.

          The facts are that the temperature records are not even partial; fragmentary. Nobody knows the Earth’s overall average temperature and nobody knows if it is higher or lower this year than last or this century than last.

          What we can be reasonably sure of is that the earth’s surface is hotter every year in Northern Hemisphere summer and colder in NH winter, despite the planet being further from the sun at that time; and that the surface is hotter during interglacial periods than during glacials.

          As for the temperature history of the ocean depths, we haven’t the foggiest. We have been making greater efforts to monitor the deep ocean heat this century, but coverage remains very sketchy, and since we have no idea of what it was like down there 30, 40 or 50 years ago, any lack of perceived warm here at the surface may well have been hiding down there where our instruments would have been blind to it. Oh yes, the missing heat, David — It’s one of the great articles of faith for among all true believers in catastrophic climate change.

          • xabier says:

            I’d be delighted if an Ice Age were to descend – it’s by far my favourite apocalyptic fantasy.

            The net crashing and everyone starving is just so commonplace and yawn-inspiring, but an Ice Age!

            It must go back to having had a plastic Cro-Magnon Man and Woman (moveable arms!) , complete with cave and sabre-toothed tiger, to play with when a kid, spent hours painting them…..

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Yes of course…

            And then I seem to recall virtually every MSM source on the planet was telling me that Iraq definitely had WMD….

            And currently the MSM is telling me Putin is the devil….

            And I am seeing headlines on a daily basis telling me how awesome Tesla is…. and how we are headed for Mars…

            When one is in the matrix… it all seems so real…. but when one escapes… it’s like a joke — it is ridiculous — but if you try to tell that to someone who is in the matrix….

            He will get very upset — angry — he will insult you — tell you that you are crazy …. a blasphemer ….

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Where did I read that over the past 15 years — over and over again ….

      And then the scientists who told me that — said they were wrong.

      Duh….

  35. Duncan Idaho says:

    Climate change: It’s even worse than we thought | New Scientist

    https://www.newscientist.com/round-up/worse-climate/

  36. Cliffhanger says:

    The Hirsh Report published in 2005 predicted peak oil within 20 years of publication. Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight White Paper, p.13 puts peak some time before 2020. The 2010 Bundeswehr Transformation Centre study put consensus for peak in 2020., p.97 Now shale has peaked in mid 2015. So, should we expect the wheels to start coming off in the next few years?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        How long do I have to wait this time before the scientists — who’s funding depends on reaching dire conclusions — admit they were wrong — or are exposed for faking results?

        You are in an unwinnable position.

        The credibility of the people you are quoting is all shot to hell.

        That’s what happens when after years of modelling – you find you were wrong.

        That’s what happens when your results do not match the narrative — so you lie about the results.

        Post all the articles you want – post all the graphs you want —- I am operating under the assumption that they are either wrong of fake.

        That’s the problem when you have no credibility…. it’s actually worse than a crack whore giving evidence at a trial …. the jury will be slightly more likely to accept the crack whores testimony over someone who has committed perjury on the stand.

        How convenient that these perjurer/faudsters changed their tag line from global warming to climate change – it all ties in with the wrong/fake results

        When you pay enough people money to come up findings that support a narrative this is the risk you run.

        The Shale story is not much different — almost everyone is convinced that shale is the deal — the MSM competes to run positive stories for shale and global warming…

        And like warming — the voices that speak against shale are few and far between —- Art Berman is a rather lone voice out there….

        And notice how the shale boys mock him —- I saw the Chesapeake CEO a few years ago ridiculing him on CNBs … he referred to him as a flunky if I recall….

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          New Research Finds Air Pollution is Far Deadlier than Previously Thought

          https://s.w-x.co/wu/smokestack-632.jpg

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Hong Kong has horrible air pollution – not as bad as Beijing — but on many days you cannot see across the harbour for the smog – our office in Hong Kong is filled with air purifiers — in fact I own a piece of an air purifier business in China — so I do know a fair bit about bad air – it’s one of the reasons I left….

            But like the global warming hype — the air pollution hype — runs into problems… in that it is not a big deal….. it is mostly hype…. but I do love it — because it means more air purifiers get sold!

            In fact on the marketing side I know our guys ramp up advertising when the horror stories about air pollution hit the news…..

            Is the air going to kill me if I move back to Hong Kong?

            Not likely:

            http://www.asahicom.jp/ajw/articles/images/AS20160728002603_comm.jpg

        • Tim Groves says:

          Hey Duncan, here’s the song I think of every time I see your posts.
          Im sure you’ll agree it’s very danceable as well as amazingly apt.

          https://youtu.be/yXmnmvDl-ao

      • Jesse James says:

        The oceans may be warming indeed…but does not necessarily mean anything about global warming. One theory is that as the geomagnetic environment around the earth and solar system changes, and due to sun changes (currently occurring) that the earths crust reacts with more earthquakes and with volcanoes erupting. Given that there may be tens of thousands of releases under the oceans, this will contribute to warming oceans, creating more water vapor release in the atmosphere.

  37. Cliffhanger says:

    Interracial Couples May Make Taller, Smarter Children Due To Greater Genetic Diversity: Study

    http://www.medicaldaily.com/interracial-couples-may-make-taller-smarter-children-due-greater-genetic-diversity-341348

    Are you reading this Dolph? Triggered?

    • Cliffhanger says:

      See, it’s survival of the most adaptable – not fittest (average fitness is good enough). Genetic diversity is an excellent way to adapt to an ever changing environment.

      Maybe white folks like Dolph are too inbred? In breeds are sickly things and don’t live very long.

      • Kurt says:

        Stop trolling Cliff. It is annoying. Also, you post too much.

      • Jesse James says:

        So you say “Maybe white folks like Dolph are too inbred.” Why not say “Maybe black folks like ____ are inbred” . Why not say “Maybe anybody like ____ are inbred.” Put your own name in the blank if desired. Cliff, just saying this because your comments do not make any sense whatsoever. There is no conclusion to be reached but your own sense of SJW. Does it make you feel good…superior?

      • Tim Groves says:

        Cliff was bred in old Kentucky.
        But he’s just a crumb round here.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Greater genetic diversity may or may not make people taller.

        Bolivia has some of the shortest people in stature in the world, with its population’s height averaging 4 feet, 11.5 inches tall when including both genders. The second shortest nation are the Indonesians, who have an average height of 4 feet, 11.75 inches when including both genders.

        A Bolivian mating with an Indonesian would certainly bring together a lot of genetic diversity, but I would be very surprised if the children of such a union would be taller than the average genetically impoverished purebred Dane or Masai, which seems to be the implication of the linked article.

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Tick tock tick tock… 3 minutes without a gl w…. post…..

    Hopefully I have put an end to this issue once and for all.

  39. Stinging Nettle says:

    To the global warming deniers:

    The idea that human activities cause global warming is a no-brainer. If you admit the human society is a heat dissipating structure, and that emissions (CO2, NO2, CFCs, etc) are greenhouse gasses, that comes as a logical conclusion.

    If you can’t see these simple facts, nothing can be done for you.

    • Stinging Nettle says:

      I see my comment is still awaiting moderation after 35 minutes. FE’s trolls pop-up like mushrooms… great!

      • timl2k11 says:

        @Stinging Nettle, you have to know the banned words. FE is very familiar with them since he is obsessed with J.e..wi.shh . and other conspiracies.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Think of that as a reprieve…. you get to stitch up your face…. I get to ice my right hand

    • Of course, plants and animals are all heat dissipating structures. Humans with our economies are simply the most effective ones. This is the way the physics works.

      • timl2k11 says:

        “Of course, plants and animals are all heat dissipating structures. ”
        True, but AGW is about greenhouse gas, not heat dissipation, so that’s not really relevant.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Gail was merely replying to Stinging Nettle’s poorly worded claim that heat dissipation is relevant to the issue.

          Also, AGW is not only about greenhouse gases, as large-scale land-use and water-use changes must have affected evaporation, cloud and rainfall patterns and altered the reflectivity of extensive regions, and this affects climate and temperature quite independently of the atmosphere’s radiative gas composition.

          Humanity as a whole these days is doing a lot more “heat dissipating” than it used to, but whether are doing enough to measurably change the earth’s overall heat balance is an open, vexed, moot question, like the one about how many angels can dance on the end of a pin. As the well known English astronomer and TV presenter Sir Patrick Moore was fond of saying on The Sky At Night, “we just don’t know!”

          Moreover, as the IPPC has officially stated: “the climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Humanity as a whole these days is doing a lot more “heat dissipating” than it used to, but whether are doing enough to measurably change the earth’s overall heat balance is an open, vexed, moot question, like the one about how many angels can dance on the end of a pin.

            +++++++++++++++++++++

            !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Entropy….

    • Joebanana says:

      Even if it is the case, there is nothing that can be done about it. Those are are passionate about doing something for the environment should work on things that are possible and would have a positive effect.

      Ending the practice of dragging to catch fish or ending the use of palm oil would have real and positive change. It would be a million times easier than going without oil as well.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Joe-
        It is a predicament that makes Mad Max look like Disneyland.

        • Artleads says:

          Looking through a glass very darkly…

          1. Small-group self-governance has many advantages for global bottom up governance, and may be unavoidable in a depleted world.

          2. But we have global, JIT, networked capitalist governance/economic system now. It has a mixture of very dysfunctional and very appealing characteristics.

          3. We can’t get out of 2 by ourselves, and only huge disruptions (some gradual, some sudden) will put us in a position to switch paradigms.

          4. There is next to no alternate paradigm waiting in the wings (due to the strictures of 2 largely) to take over after a collapse of 2.

          5. It’s tempting to look for a combination of a desired version of 1 and a desired version of 2 (functioning like an “establishment” and “vernacular” complementary duo) as a proactive quest for a soft landing.

          6. Coherent land use management (land use determinism)–universal watershed planning, etc., putting the land before people–could be considered as a way to get past unsurvivable human-cultural behavior while increasing survival’s odds..

          7. But identifying and trying to cure universal-human sick behavior has to also take priority.

          • xabier says:

            The only way to deal with the sick behaviour is self-knowledge: universal religions (I include the secular religion of Marxism in that) generally fail as they are generally subverted by tribalism, racialism, pure fantasy, power-seeking,etc.

            But the path of self-knowledge, although many more could take it, is neitherattractive nor easy.

            Eventually one comes down to an authoritarian society ruled by those with self-knowledge and real humility, working to improve that quality in those they rule and, as you say, putting the land first.

            • Tim Groves says:

              ++++++++++++++

              That narrows down the panel of potential rulers to Plato, Marcus Aurelius, M.K. Gandhi, Gail, Fast Eddy, Crates, Norman Page, Xabier, and Yours Truly. And I have other commitments on the weekends.

            • yes i can only manage weekdays too

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’m free tomorrow and Sunday…

            • Tim Groves says:

              Norman, we’ll have to let the world go to hell in a hand-basket every weekend.

            • JMS says:

              Come on, how can you all be so selfish. It’s the salvation of the planet that is in question, damn it! I am sure that together you can organize a feasible schedule. And please remember that the office of enlightened despot is wonderfully paid, with loads of benefits and all the rest. (And if you need a bartender at the command headquarters, I can apply to the job saying that I like alcohol, know how to mix things up and ever was a night owl.)

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I have an idea…. we need a new policing body — like Interpol — but this body will be responsible for policing the hypocrites…

              Anyone who makes statements in support of the global warming narrative —- will be followed by said police — and observed… if they are found to be contributing to global warming — say driving a car —- a large red H will be branded on their foreheads….

      • Artleads says:

        People COULD behave differently from how they do now, but the treadmill (of normalcy bias) they’re on is near impossible to escape.We tend not to take psychological-cultural-educational-economistic conditioning as seriously as we do physical limitations. I suspect that art has the potential to get off the ontological (word) treadmill somewhat, and throw spanners in the works. But the normalcy machine seems to have coopted and neutralized art too. Language is yet another captive conditioner. Phew!

        But unless you can get to language or to the mind, I doubt that any physical “solution” can gain traction. I would guess that emotion and intuition are better guides than logical drivers. So I’m back to Gail and the self-organizing system of systems. I suppose one thing to do is to recognize the trends and try to fit in with (take advantage of) them. I’ve thought of it somewhat as watching the wave approach and setting up to ride it?

        • Joebanana says:

          We *could* but it ain’t going to happen. I’ll give you an example; a friend of mine just told me they put 70,000 km’s on the car last year driving the kids around to sports and other activities. He thought it was great.

          I’m probably not far from that myself, the only difference is that I think it is crazy, yet here I am doing it. Drive all over hell and creation and then cut some grass with a scythe.

          Try and convince a Canadian that they should cut the kids activities like sports travel in half and they would laugh in your face or become very angry.

          As much as people say differently the environment means nothing to the vast majority of people and they would not bat an eye if it was a choice between their smartphone and the last butterfly on earth.

          I’m no better either but I can at least say I see the absurdity of it all.

          • xabier says:

            Yes, Joe, driving the kids to their sports, ballet and piano lessons, and visits to nature parks, because you love them so much you’ll pollute the planet for them…truly absurd!

            And make sure they are properly seated and belted,as you wouldn’t want anything bad to happen to them……

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’ve got a big fat comment on this topic waiting for the censors to take the F out of F U…. ck…

              But to summarize what is hopefully releasing soon — a message to all of you global warming groupies… if you feel so passionately about this — and you clearly do….

              Walk onto the street and the next person you see — give him or her your car keys and your house keys…. then head into the bush to live like a hunter gatherer…. walk the walk — instead of talking the talk — and do you part to save the planet

              Otherwise STOP moaning….

              Hypocrites — every last one of you.

              Pathetic …

            • Joebanana says:

              You must have it in for me for some reason, Eddy. I’ve already said there is nothing we can do about global warming as even a slight drop in energy use will crash the system and I too am skeptical about how much warming is man made.

              Noticing the absurd situation we are in regarding the use of capital, and fossil energy is capital, and how we waste it on entertainment of all things is hardly advocating for government to tell us how we should live. I certainly don’t think people are idiots or evil for living their lives or being caught up in the “matrix”.

              There are other issues though, low level ozone and NOx is hell on trees. There is no debate about that. We need trees.

              Nothing we can do about any problems directly associated with burning fossil fuels that will not kill us all so we are in a conundrum.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            For those who are up to their necks in hypocrisy — the ones who are pounding the global warming drum — yet you are continuing to ‘wreck the planet’

            I give you an escape from the deep guilt that you must feel every time you flick on a light switch resulting in the burning of more coal…

            Come over to the dark side and recognize that a) the damage is minimal – not catastrophic — and the planet will repair itself and b) burning more coal is fun — it gives us joy — it means your kids and grand kids do not have to starve or be cooked over a grill… of raped and tortured…

            A negative can be turned into a positive — if you try hard enough

            • Joebanana says:

              This comment has been held up for moderation for over two days. I’m trying again.
              ******
              For some reason you must have it in for me, Eddy. What is it I’ve said that bothers you so much?

              I’ve already stated there is nothing we can do about global warming as even a slight drop in energy use will crash the system and I too am skeptical about how much warming is man made.

              Noticing the absurd situation we are in regarding the use of capital, and fossil energy is capital, and how we waste it on entertainment of all things is hardly advocating for government to tell us how we should live. I certainly don’t think people are stooopid or e%il for living their lives as they see fit.

              How is it hypocritical to make that observation?

              There are other issues though, low level ozone and NOx is hell on trees. There is no debate about that. We need trees.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              That comment was adding to what you posted — not directed at you

            • Tim Groves says:

              Joe, Eddy wasn’t trying to get at you. My guess is he’s in just about full agreement with you on fossil fuel use, global warming and BAU.

              I think the most recent wave of DelusiSTANi invasions simply irritated him enough to get him fired up.

              When they come singing the praises of renewables, he attacks wind turbines and solar panels and posts about the Cubic Mile of Oil and how many turbines, panels, nuclear power stations, etc., would need to be built each year for 50 years (which is the same thing as forever in the energy business) in order to replace that FF energy.

              When they come evangelizing Tesla Inc. he goes on a Musk hunt blasting away at the man and his brand with both barrels .

              When they come with tales of the promise of shale oil, he ridicules Saudi America so relentlessly that he drives grown men to tears.

              This week the invaders have been pushing CACA (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alarmism). Whether there’s any validity in it or not, it gets a bit tedious seeing post after post lamenting how it’s worse than we thought and any spot of inclement weather is all our fault. Moreover, the subject is not very relevant to what Gail is talking about.

              So whether this bunch of invaders are card-carrying DelusiSTANIs or not is less important than that they have been stuffing the comment threads with irrelevant material. Eddy’s comment threads! The comment threads he has been working his typing fingers to the bone to keep ship shape and Bristol fashion for years now!! The nerve of these characters!!!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Notice has Gail has stood aside and allowed this debate to happen — usually she steps in and directs the dialogue back to more relevant topics when global warming is discussed…

              Perhaps Gail has been waiting for some of us to drive the steam roller over this myth?

              https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7c/Burrell_Steam_Roller_-_Flickr_-_mick_-_Lumix.jpg

              I can imagine she is clapping her hands in delight this week…

              http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/07/taxi-drive-clap.gif

            • I have been in a hotel with very poor internet access. I have also had family gatherings to attend to.

        • xabier says:

          Be a cork bobbing on the waves, not the container ship that goes down…….

          International Contemporary art has certainly been utterly corrupted and co-opted by Big Money, it’s very sad. Nothing more than the production of gaming counters for billionnaires to play with.

          A friend of a friend runs a top-tier gallery in London, so I’ve heard a little of how it all (depressingly) works. The gallery itself is just a speculative vehicle owned by a hedge-funder.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          You try then come back and tell us about it once you have had enough of being unplugged from BAU — and saving the world

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Nobody is disputing that we are warming the planet.

      The issue is — how much.

      And as the global warming scientists admit —- not much at all — far less than they expected.

      Of course that is why they no longer use the term global warming — they prefer climate change.

      Because they were wrong.

      And because they have been doing this for so long this is all they know how to do — so they need to make sure the funding keeps pouring in so they continue to get paid…. they are so desperate to keep their jobs that they have demonstrated a willingness to FAKE the numbers — then engage in cover-ups.

      Pretty pathetic really.

    • Tim Groves says:

      The idea that human activities cause global warming is a no-brainer.

      That’s right. You’d have to have no brain to believe it.

    • Stinging Nettle says:

      You lost me. How is the effect of human activities on the environments due to peak oil, gas, and coal????

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