Since the late 1990s, globalization has seemed to be the great hope for the future. Now this great hope seems to be dimming. Globalization sets up conflict in the area of jobs. Countries around the world compete for development and jobs. If there is not enough cheap-to-produce energy to go around, huge wage disparity is likely to result.
We know from physics and history that economies need to grow, or they collapse. The wage disparity that high-wage countries have been experiencing in recent years is evidence that the world economy is already reaching energy limits. There are no longer enough jobs that pay well to go around. Any drop in energy supply is likely to worsen the job situation.
Most observers miss this problem, because they expect high oil prices to signal energy limits. This time, the signal is low wages for a significant group of workers, rather than high oil prices. This situation is possible in a networked economy, but it is not what most people look for.
Unhappy citizens can be expected to react to the wage disparity problem by electing leaders who favor limits to globalization. This can only play out in terms of reduced globalization.
History and physics suggest that economies without adequate energy supply can be expected to collapse. We have several recent examples of partial collapses, including the Great Depression of the 1930s and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Such collapses, or even more extensive collapses, might occur again if we cannot find energy alternatives that can be quickly scaled up to replace oil and coal in the very near term. These replacements need to be cheap-to-produce, non-polluting, and available in huge quantities.
The story that the economy doesn’t really need a growing supply of very cheap-to-produce energy is simply a myth. Let’s look at some of the pieces of this story.
[1] The world economy needs to grow or it collapses. Once all of the nations of the world are included in the world economy, one obvious source of growth (incorporating nations that are not yet industrialized into the world economy) disappears.
The reason why the world economy needs to grow is because the economy is a self-organized system that operates under the laws of physics. In many ways it is like a two-wheeled bicycle. A bicycle needs to roll quickly enough, or it will fall over. An economy must grow quickly enough, or debt cannot be repaid with interest.
Also, government promises may be a problem with slow growth. Pensions for the elderly are typically paid out of tax revenue collected in that same year. It is easy for a mismatch to take place if the number of younger workers is shrinking or if their wages are lagging behind.
Figure 1. Author’s view of analogies of speeding upright bicycle to speeding economy.
I explain a little more about my bicycle analogy in Will the World Economy Continue to “Roll Along” in 2018?
Economies throughout the ages have collapsed. In some cases, entire civilizations have disappeared. In the past 100 years, partial collapses have included the Great Depression of the 1930s, the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Economic collapses are analogous to bicycles falling over.
[2] A growing supply of energy products is extraordinarily important for keeping the world economy operating.
We can see in Figure 1 that the energy of the person operating a bicycle is very important in allowing the operation of the bicycle to continue. In the world’s economy, the situation is similar, except that we are facing a problem of a world population that is continually growing. In a sense, the economic situation is more like a rapidly growing army of bicycles with riders. Each member of the economy needs goods and services such as food, homes, clothing, and transportation. The members of the economy can collapse individually (for example, growing suicide rate) or in much larger groups (collapsing government of a country).
Figure 2. World population according to the United Nations 2017 historical estimates and Medium forecast of population growth after 2017.
In an economy, we have a choice regarding how much energy to use. If more energy is used, workers can have many tools (such as trucks and computers) to leverage their productivity. If all goods are made with few energy inputs other than human labor, most workers find themselves working in subsistence agriculture. The total amount of goods and services produced in such an economy tends to be very small.
If supplemental energy is used, many more jobs that pay well can be added, and many more goods and services can be created. Workers will be rich enough that they can pay taxes to support representative government that supports many services. The whole economy will look more like that of a rich nation, rather than the economy of Somalia or Haiti.
Individual nations can grow their economies by using available energy supply to create jobs that pay well. Globalization sets up competition for available jobs.
If a given country has a lot of high paying jobs, this is likely to be reflected in high per capita energy consumption for that country. There are two reasons for this phenomenon: (1) it takes energy for an employer to create jobs, and (2) workers can use their wealth to buy goods and services. This wealth buys more goods and services made with energy products.
[3] One measure of how well the world economy is doing is world energy consumption per capita. On this basis, the world economy is already reaching limits.
Figure 3. World energy per capita and world oil price in 2016 US$. Energy amounts from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. Population estimates from UN 2017 Population data and Medium Estimates.
It is clear from Figure 3 that energy consumption tends to move in the same direction as oil price. If “demand” (which is related to wages) is high, both oil price and the amount of energy products sold will tend to be high. If demand is low, both oil price and the amount of energy products sold will tend to be low.
Since 2014, energy consumption has remained quite high, but oil prices have fallen very low. Today’s oil prices (even at $70 per barrel) are too low for oil producers to make adequate investment in the development of new fields and make other needed expenditures. If this situation does not change, the only direction that production of oil can go is down, rather than up. Prices may temporarily spike, prior to the time production falls.
Looking at energy consumption per capita on Figure 3 (above), we notice that this amount has been fairly flat since 2011. Normally, in a growing world economy, a person would expect energy consumption per capita to rise, as it has most of the time since 1820 (Figure 4).
Figure 4. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.
The fact that energy consumption per capita has been nearly flat since 2011 is worrying. It is a sign that the world economy may not be growing very rapidly, regardless of what government organizations are reporting to the World Bank. Some subsidized growth should not really be considered economic growth. For example, some Chinese cities have been buying off the country’s housing glut with borrowed money. A better accounting would likely show lower GDP growth for China and the world.
Looking more closely at Figure 3, we note that energy per capita hit a high point in 2013, just before world oil prices began sliding downward. Since then, world energy consumption per capita has been trending downward. This is part of the reason for gluts in supply. Producers had been planning as if normal growth in energy consumption would continue. In fact, something is seriously wrong with demand, so world energy consumption has not been rising as fast as in the past.
The point that is easy to miss is that (a) growing wage disparity plus oil gluts and (b) high oil prices are, in a sense, different ways of reflecting a similar problem, that of an inadequate supply of truly inexpensive-to-produce oil. High-cost-to-produce oil is not acceptable to the economy, because it doesn’t produce enough jobs that pay well, for each barrel produced. If oil prices today truly represented what oil producers (such as Saudi Arabia) need to maintain their production, including adequate tax revenue and funds to develop additional production, oil prices would be well over $100 per barrel.
We are dealing with a situation where no oil price works. Either prices are too high for a large number of consumers or they are too low for a large number of producers. When prices are low, relative to the cost of production, we tend to get wage disparity and gluts.
[4] The reason why energy demand is not growing is related to increased wage disparity. This is a problem for globalization, because globalization acts to increase wage disparity.
In the last section, I mentioned that demand is closely connected to wages. It is really wage disparity that becomes a problem. Goods and services become less affordable for the people most affected by wage disparity: the lower-paid workers. These people cut back on their purchases of goods such as homes and cars. Because there are so many lower-paid workers in the world, demand for energy products, such as oil and coal, fails to grow as rapidly as it otherwise would. This tends to depress prices for these commodities. It doesn’t necessarily reduce production immediately, however, because of the long-term nature of investments and because of the dependence of oil exporters on the revenue from oil.
Figure 5 shows that China and India’s energy consumption per capita has been rising, leaving less for everyone else.
Figure 5. Energy consumption per capita comparison, based on energy data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, and UN 2017 Population Estimates.
A major way that an economy (through the laws of physics) deals with “not enough goods and services to go around” is increased wage disparity. To some extent, this occurs because newly globalized countries can produce manufactured products more cheaply. Reasons for their advantage are varied, but include lower wages and less concern about pollution.
As a result, some jobs that previously would have been added in developed countries are replaced by jobs in newly globalized countries. It is probably not a coincidence that US labor force participation rates started falling about the time that China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
Figure 6. US Labor Force Participation Rate, as prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Lower wages for unskilled workers may also occur as the result of immigration, and the resulting greater competition for less skilled jobs. This has been a particular concern in the UK.
[5] Adding China, India, and other countries through globalization temporarily gives a boost to world energy production. This boost disappears as the energy resources of the newly added countries deplete.
Both China and India are primarily coal producers. They rapidly ramped up production since joining the World Trade Organization (in 1995 for India; in 2001 for China). Now China’s coal production is shrinking, falling 11% from 2013 to 2016. Both China and India are major importers of fossil fuels (difference between black line and their own production).
Figure 7. China’s total energy consumption compared to its energy production by type, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
Figure 8. India’s total energy consumption compared to its energy production by type, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
China and India’s big surge in coal production has had a major impact on world coal production. The fact that both countries have needed substantial imports has also added to the growth in coal production in the “Other” category in Figure 9.
Figure 9 also shows that with China’s coal production down since 2013, total world coal production is falling.
Figure 9. World coal production by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
Figure 10 shows that world GDP and world energy supply tend to rise and fall together. In fact, energy growth tends to precede GDP growth, strongly suggesting that energy growth is a cause of GDP growth.
Figure 10. World three-year average GDP growth compared to world three-year average energy consumption growth. GDP data is from the World Bank, based on 2010 US$ weights of GDP by country; energy consumption is from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
If a growth in energy consumption is indeed a primary cause of world economic growth, the drop in world coal production shown in Figure 9 is worrying. Coal makes up a large share of world energy supply (28.1% according to Figure 12). If its supply shrinks, it seems likely to cause a decline in world GDP.
Figure 11 shows energy consumption growth on a basis comparable to the energy consumption growth shown on Figure 10, except for different groupings: for the world in total, the world excluding China, and for the combination of the US, EU, and Japan. We can see from Figure 11 that the addition of China and Japan has greatly propped up growth in world energy consumption since 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization.
Figure 11. Three-year average growth in energy consumption, for the world total; the world less China and India; and for the sum of the United States, the European Union, and Japan. Energy data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
The amount of the “benefit” was greatest in the 2003-2007 period. If we look at Exhibit 10, we see that world economic growth was around 4% per year during that period. This was a recent record high. Now the benefit is rapidly disappearing, reducing the possibility that the world energy consumption can grow as rapidly as in the past.
If we want world energy consumption per capita to rise again, we need a new large rapidly growing source of cheap energy to replace the benefit we received from China and India’s rapidly growing coal extraction. We don’t have any candidates for a suitable replacement. Intermittent renewables (wind and solar) are not candidates at all. According to the IEA, they comprised only 1% of world energy supply in 2015, despite huge investment. They are part of the gray “Other” slice in Figure 11.
Figure 12. Figure prepared by IEA showing Total Primary Energy Supply by type from this IEA document
Academic studies regarding wind and solar have tended to focus on what they “might” do, without considering the cost of grid integration. They have also overlooked the fact that any energy solution, to be a true energy solution, needs to be a huge energy solution. It has been more pleasant to give people the impression that they can somehow operate a huge number of electric cars on a small amount of subsidized intermittent electricity.
[6] On a world basis, energy consumption per capita seems to need to be rising to maintain a healthy economy.
When energy consumption is growing on a per capita basis, the situation is similar to one in which the average worker has more and more “tools” (such as trucks) available at his/her disposal, and sufficient fuel to operate these tools. It is easy to imagine how such a pattern of growing energy consumption per capita might lead to greater productivity and therefore economic growth.
If we look at historical periods when energy consumption has been approximately flat, we see a world economy with major problems.
Figure 13. World per Capita Energy Consumption with two circles relating to flat consumption. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.
The flat period of 1920-1940 seems to have been caused by limits reached on coal production, particularly in the United Kingdom, but also elsewhere. World War I , the Great Depression of the 1930s, and World War II all took place around this time period. Charles Hall and Kent Klitgaard in Energy and the Wealth of Nations argue that resource shortages are frequently the underlying cause for wars, including World Wars I and II.
The Great Depression seems to have been a partial economic collapse, indirectly related to great wage disparity at that time. Farmers, in particular, had a difficult time earning adequate wages.
The major event that took place in the 1990 to 2000 period was the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The central government collapsed, leaving the individual republics to operate independently. The Soviet Union also had strong trade relationships with a number of “satellite” countries, including Cuba, North Korea, and several Eastern European countries. In the next section, we will see that this collapse had a serious long-term impact on both the republics making up the Soviet Union and the satellite countries operating more independently.
[7] The example of the Soviet Union shows that collapses can and do happen in the real world. The effects can be long lasting, and can affect trade partners as well as republics making up the original organization.
In Figure 14, the flat period of the 1980-2000 period seems to be related to intentional efforts of the United States, Europe, and other developed countries to conserve oil, after the oil price spikes of the 1970s. For example, smaller, more fuel conserving vehicles were produced, and oil-based electricity generation was converted to other types of generation. Unfortunately, there was still a “backfire” effect related to the intentional cutback in oil consumption. Oil prices fell very low, for an extended period.
The Soviet Union was an oil exporter. The government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, indirectly because with these low oil prices, the government could not support adequate new investment in oil and gas extraction. Businesses closed; people lost their jobs. None of the countries shown on the Figures 14 and 15 have as high energy consumption per capita in 2016 as they did back when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Figure 14. Per capita energy consumption for the Soviet Union and three of its satellite countries. Energy data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. Population data from UN 2017 Population data and Middle Estimates.
The three satellite countries shown on Figure 14 (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland) seem to be almost as much affected as the republics that had been part of the Soviet Union (Figure 15). This suggests that loss of established trading patterns was very important in this collapse.
Figure 15. Per capita energy consumption for the three largest (by population) republics that made up the Soviet Union. Energy data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. Population data from UN 2017 Population data and Middle Estimates.
Russia’s per capita energy consumption dropped 29% between peak and trough. It had significant fossil fuel resources, so when prices rose again, it was again able to invest in new oil fields.
Ukraine was a major industrial center. It was significantly impacted by the loss of oil and gas imports. It has never recovered.
The country that seemed to fare best was Uzbekistan. It had little industry before the collapse, so was less dependent on energy imports than most. Of all of the countries shown on Figures 14 and 15, Uzbekistan is the only one that did not lose population.
[8] Today, there seem to be many countries that are not far from collapse. Some of these countries are energy exporters; some are energy importers.
Many of us have read about the problems that Venezuela has been having recently. Ironically, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. Its problem is that at today’s prices, it cannot afford to develop those reserves. The Wikipedia article linked above is labeled 2014-2018 Venezuelan protests. Oil prices dropped to a level much lower than they had been in 2014. It should not be surprising that civil unrest and protests came at the same time.
Figure 16. Monthly average spot Brent oil prices, through December 2017, based on EIA data.
Other oil producers are struggling as well. Saudi Arabia has recently changed leaders, and it is in the process of trying to sell part of its oil company, Saudi Aramco, to investors. The new leader, Mohamed bin Salman, has been trying to get money from wealthy individuals within the country, using an approach that looks to outsiders like a shake-down. These things seem like very strange behaviors, suggesting that the country is experiencing serious financial difficulties. This is not surprising, given the low price of oil since 2014.
On the oil-importer side, Greece seems to frequently need support from the EU. The lower oil prices since 2014 have somewhat helped the country, but the basic shape of the energy consumption per capita chart makes it look like it is struggling to avoid collapse.
Figure 17. Greece energy per capita. Energy data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017; population estimates from UN 2017 Population data and Medium projections.
There are many other countries struggling with falling energy consumption per capita. Figure 18 shows a chart with four such countries.
Figure 18. Energy consumption per capita for Japan, UK, Italy, and Spain. Energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy; population from UN 2017 Population data and Medium Estimates.
In a sense, even though oil prices have been lower since 2014, prices haven’t been low enough to fix the economic problems these countries have been having.
China is in a different kind of situation that could also lead to its collapse. It built its economy on coal production and rapidly growing debt. Now its coal production is down, and it is difficult for imports and substitution of other fuels to completely compensate. If slowing growth in fuel consumption slows economic growth, debt will become much harder to repay. Major debt defaults could theoretically lead to collapse. If China were to collapse, it would seriously affect the rest of the world because of its extensive trading relationships.
[9] Leaders of countries with increasing wage disparity and unhappy electorates can be expected to make decisions that will move away from globalization.
Unhappy workers are likely to elect at least some leaders who recognize that globalization is at least a small part of their problems. This is what has happened in the US, with the election of President Trump.
The hope, of course, is that even though the rest of the world is becoming poorer and poorer (essentially because of inadequate growth of cheap-to-produce energy supplies), somehow a particular economy can “wall itself off” from this problem. President Donald Trump is trying to remake trading arrangements, based on this view. The UK Brexit vote was in a sense similar. These are the kinds of actions that can be expected to scale back globalization.
Conclusion
Having enough cheap energy for the world’s population has been a problem for a very long time. When there is enough cheap-to-produce energy to go around, the obvious choice is to co-operate. Thus the trend toward globalization makes sense. When there is not enough cheap-to-produce energy to go around, the obvious choice is to try reduce the effects of globalization and immigration. This is the major reason why globalization can’t last.
We now have problems with both coal and oil. With the decline in China’s coal supplies, we are reaching the point where there are no longer enough cheap energy supplies to go around. At first glance, it looks like there is enough, or perhaps even a superabundance. The problem is that no price works. Producers around the world need higher oil prices, to be compensated for their total cost, including the cost of extraction, developing new fields, and the tax levels governments of exporting countries need. Consumers around the world are already having trouble trying to afford $70 per barrel oil. This is what leads to gluts.
We have been told that adding wind and solar to the electric grid can solve our problems, but this solution is simply absurd. If the world is to go forward as before, it somehow needs a new very large, very cheap supply of energy, to offset our problems with both coal and oil. This new energy supply should not be polluting, either.
At this point, it is hard to see any solution to the energy problems that we are facing. The best we can try to do is “kick the can” down the road a little farther. Perhaps “globalization light” is the way to go.
We live in interesting times!
“The bull market has feasted on extremely low bond rates. The fear is that Treasury yields will rise to levels that make stocks less attractive and force the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by aggressively raising interest rates.”
Looks like all that phony printed money is coming back to haunt us. This could get rough guys. Are we seeing the edifice of blatantly outrageous financing begin to crumble?
Here’s why the stock market is in turmoil and why it’s not likely to end anytime soon
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/heres-why-the-stock-market-is-in-turmoil.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
The most optimistic day of the week is usually Friday, tomorrow. If stocks dump tomorrow, they may dump on a grand scale, because people don’t want to be stressed trying to decide what the heck to do with their stocks over the weekends.
If optimistic Friday dumps, look out for pessimistic Monday. We may be witnessing the beginning of a massive recession in which the CB’s would be out of ammo and things will just have to settle to a much lower level.
From that article I linked is this:
“The bond market has definitely got the stock market’s attention,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial. “Is the bond market telling us something we don’t know? Is there more inflation down the road than we’re expecting?”
Just in the few moments I was pasting the above in, the Dow is now -500.
The possibility of a US government shutdown if a budget agreement cannot be reached is not helping things either, I expect.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/08/politics/budget-vote-congress-shutdown/index.html
The shutdown will come tonight at midnight, without an agreement.
Dow down -1,033.
Voting still up in the air on budget bill. Current view seems to be that something will pass in Senate later today, but not the same as in the House. Then there is the problem to get the House to agree to it, hopefully this evening before midnight.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/08/investing/dow-jones-stock-market/index.html
Hey guys, Dow is dumping again. Was down over 700 pts., and since has wildly fluctuated with it currently -460 pts. and every time I refresh it , it goes down more. Article says it’s concerns about bonds that causing the drop.
Exxon Mobil: The Perfect Storm
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144104-exxon-mobil-perfect-storm
The way I understand the situation is Exxon has cut there exploration expenditures and laid off staff to balance there budget. That doesn’t seem like a good long term approach. They are living on legacy production without replacing existing production.
If there is nothing to find, drilling dry holes is something of a less than useful. This forum has pretty much come to the conclusion we are all living on legacy production. Obviously, we need a good long term approach and some of us frequent this with a positive attitude looking for that approach, good ideas would be welcomed by me.
Exxon figured it out.
XOM is a buy @ $66. I remember people freaking out when it went from $12 to $ 8 in 1987.
i was recent watch true detective and it true showing decline of small town in usa
when majority of people do not have jobs in town
they really do mess up thing like Child Molestation or extreme religious fanaticism
https://youtu.be/p4zluA60hjs
btw is small town Louisiana is really that scary as show in this tv show
as they say An Idle Brain is the Devil’s Workshop
Perhaps that is why some very well off people get bored, do drugs and engage in unconventional sexual behavior.
Better than working for Amazon….
here is real story that was based on tv show
https://youtu.be/i5JkBs4lJak
Similar expression up here, “idleness are the roots of all that is evil”.
The only option is to move to the city, to find a job. But this is expensive, and without special skills, the result may not be good.
The opioid problem is very bad in many smaller towns.
The” only option” may be correct; a farm/doomstead even with considerable land is very difficult and expensive to maintain, it becomes a party house/hunting lodge; I don’ t hunt. Living between my farm and St. Paul, the middle is less expensive than the cities but getting more so, the opportunities for education and good jobs with that education are greater in the Twin Cites. Evidence is the dance studios, completely dependent on discretionary income, do much better there.
Musk may be a salesman, but his car is on the way to Mars or thereabouts; it is a hell of an achievement. If there is only doom and gloom and there are opportunities to move forward and have an interesting life, what is the advantage of burying oneself in a small town etc. where all the people with sufficient intelligence to make things work are already gone?
Skills are important, but ethnic groups know the importance of sticking together; family, friends, and a group works and helps when times are tough; maybe as much as a good education which is terribly difficult to keep current. We only survive and thrive as a group that maintains mutual trust and respect and calling everyone names is perhaps less than helpful.
musk throws a car into space and gets its picture in every newspaper in the world
idiots ”see” a car driving towards mars or wherever and immediately think that electrics can do that
perfect—gotta hand it to the man
Try typing Tesla into a google news search….
Almost every story is about the car in space…. next to nothing about their record quarterly cash burn….
David Copperfield is Tesla’s PR consultant….
About 5,340,000 results (0.35 seconds)
Search Results
Story image for tesla from CNBC
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Tesla Put a Car in Space But How About in Showrooms?
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Every manufacturer is cashing in on Musk’s “eco” wave. I saw an billboard last week for Ecofurniture Store. I think it was near Austin. Ecophones, ecohomes, ecosolar, ecowind, ecotransport. Why not ecospacecars. It just all coming up roses. No more toxins. No more pollution. No more guilt. Just buy “eco” and forget it.
Some Honda cars have “Earth Dreams” typed across the rocker cover now
And let’s not forget Leo’s CONCRETE Eco Village in Belize.
Eco Space Rockets….
It should be noted that it took a combustion-powered rocket to get that hunk of EV junk into space.
Good point!
Cheap or free housing (including work to create it) should not be impossible to do. There are endless large abandoned structures to supply work adapting for housing and home based enterprises. These are places where drug counselling, small-animal care and horticulture could all complement each other. Not being able to see how straightforward a “solution” this could be is an incredibly huge shortcoming in the way our society is able to imagine and believe.
I take it that 1) Keeping energy flowing smoothly along its current lines, using the same roads, materials, processes is the most affordable? 2) The best option for the environment is to keep current fossil fuel businesses patronized without the necessity for them to spend more energy to mine new sources and set up new delivery infrastructure 3) Using existing manufactured materials–plastic roofs, drywall, joining tape, staples, etc. that are currently available in hardware stores is consistent with 1 & 2. 4) using existing materials from the store and modifying them with readily available industrial materials is a beneficial way to create housing.
The Long Profitable March of Digital China
Pepe Escobar 1-31-2018
The dragon is on fire when it comes to high-tech industries but a trade war with the US looms
The unsung star of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week was not a head of state, but the Chinese Politburo member Liu He. The 66-year-old is a trusted confidant of President Xi Jinping and will soon be appointed vice-premier to oversee the Chinese economy.
Liu emphasized, like his ‘boss’, that Beijing is against protectionism and that China is committed to sustainable growth. He also stressed the importance of economic reforms, which would “exceed the expectations of the international community.”
On an array of aspects, the dragon is on fire. Chinese debt is mostly internal, and in yuan, while the economy is fast becoming more productive through high-tech solutions such as big data. The transition from an export-fueled business model to a knowledge and innovation economy has been hyper-fast and relatively successful.
Still, red flags remain. Lou Jiwei, the chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, has warned that China’s financial system is “severely distorted” and has “systematic financial risks.”
On a macro level, concerns persist about how long Beijing’s campaign to “de-leverage the financial sector” will take. There are also worries about the willingness to reduce “off-balance-sheet exposure” in the banking sector. Finally, there are fears that a “squeeze on local government funding could also hit infrastructure spending.”
Against this backdrop, the People’s Bank of China deputy governor, Yi Gang, has been hinting that ‘shadow banking’ and online finance operations will merit special attention in the central bank’s “macro-prudential framework.”
Yet for many, China’s digital ecosystem has been billed as one of the wonders of the ‘new’ world. A detailed report revealed how it is responsible for 7% of China’s gross domestic product and worth more than the GDP of France or the United Kingdom.
The all-powerful BATX, of Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi, alongside Didi Chuxing, the Chinese Uber, and tech giants JD.com and Huawei, are practically a state within a state.
Major breakthroughs in voice and face recognition have helped transform business life in rural China. According to the Boston Consulting Group, there are at least 751 million internet users in China, which is more than the United States and India combined.
Coupled with that, expansion is virtually unlimited as only 54% of the population is connected compared to 77% in the US and nearly 90% in Japan and South Korea. And it certainly helps that Google, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter are not present in the Chinese market.
The inevitable trend is for China’s digital ecosystem to keep driving internal growth while, in parallel, the New Silk Road, officially known as the Belt and Road Initiative, generates external growth.
Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, recently set out plans to expand the Belt and Road’s reach to Latin America. He outlined the blueprint in Santiago, Chile, during the second ministerial meeting of the China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum.
http://www.atimes.com/article/long-profitable-march-digital-china/
So China wants to expand the Belt-Road Initiative to S. America?
The Hegemon will not be pleased.
80 percent of the countries in China’s silk road are in junk status. And India didn’t want to join even because of this.
The Eurasian Union is, in my opinion, an attempt to break free from western financial domination ie the non-western nations have often been subject to ruinous booms, busts, and wars due to western financial/monetary policies. They are tired of it…..
And it has a lot more involved than just China.
Japan to Help Finance China’s Belt and Road Projects: Nikkei
Reuters 12-5-2018
“TOKYO (Reuters) – The Japanese government plans to cooperate with China on its Belt and Road initiative by financially supporting private-sector partnerships, as Tokyo seeks to improve bilateral ties with its Asian neighbor, the Nikkei reported on Wednesday. ”
“Cooperation will center on the environmental sector, industrial modernization and logistics, according to guidelines compiled by the government, the Japanese business daily said.”
“Assistance will include loans through government-backed financial institutions to promote cooperation among private Japanese and Chinese firms working on projects in third-party countries, it said.”
“Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative is an extensive infrastructure plan that will link Asia with the Middle East and Europe, although critics say it is more about spreading Chinese influence.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china-beltandroad/japan-to-help-finance-chinas-belt-and-road-projects-nikkei-idUSKBN1E003M
One major point here is that Eurasia holds the best and last of the world’s energy and industrial resources. Everybody knows that if the US/west get kicked out of the ME, we will be out of this valuable region on permanently. So that is a reason why the US is desperately clinging on to the Afghanistan War and meddling everywhere in the region.
So the Eurasian Union might be looked at as a version of the final Resource Wars.
“The world’s biggest geopolitical trend today is not America First, or the global war on terror, or Brexit, or the renewed Cold War with Russia. It is the economic integration of Europe with Asia, especially the European Union with China. Europe and Asia co-inhabit the world’s largest landmass, Eurasia. They are increasingly connected economically as well. Trump’s protectionism and bellicosity will speed up the integration of Europe and Asia, and threaten to leave the United States on the sidelines.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/04/09/eurasia-rise-will-left-sidelines/RjCjzDf8edwngjWoMfzL6M/story.html
Complexity, such as is enabled by high-tech solutions, requires energy flows to support it. It also requires other complexity, including globalization, to support it. Eventually, the digital ecosystem has to collapse.
we have cross 7.6 billion population
congrats to the 7.6 billion baby
\you also joined with us on destiny of collapse
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
The government revealed in late 2015 that some 180 individuals “with a nexus to Canada” had joined Islamic terrorist groups overseas, and an additional 60 had come back to Canada, according to a report by CBC’s Evan Dyer.
Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale confirmed in the House 60 ISIS terrorists were back in Canada and “under very careful investigation.”
“We recognize that the return of even one individual may have serious national security implications,” Trudeau told Scheer, reading from a statement.
The Liberals have launched the Canada Centre for Community Engagement and Prevention of Violence which “helps to ensure that resources are in place to facilitate disengagement from violent ideologies,” the prime minister read.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/trudeau-sparks-outrage-with-plan-to-reintegrate-isis-terrorists-into-canada
Koombaya …
These guys are getting some new weaponry to play with.. Here is a small drone attack against a group of hostile personnel………
This reminds me of
Timothy Treadwell (born Timothy William Dexter; April 29, 1957 – October 5, 2003) was an American bear enthusiast, environmentalist, documentary filmmaker, and founder of the bear-protection organization Grizzly People. He lived among grizzly bears of Katmai National Park in Alaska for 13 summers. At the end of his 13th summer in the park, in 2003, he and his girlfriend Amie Huguenard were killed and almost fully eaten by a 28-year-old brown bear, whose stomach was later found to contain human remains and clothing.[1] Treadwell’s life, work, and death were the subject of Werner Herzog’s critically acclaimed documentary film Grizzly Man
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Treadwell
The power of a few words …. issued from the Fed:
What happened? Did the market sneeze, cough, or was something misread and today perceived in a different light?
In my opinion this is what happened:
The Plunge Protection Team, as they have done on previous equity market drops, or the Federal Reserve operating for the Working Group on Financial Markets, sent a purchase order for S&P futures to the trading floor. The hedge funds, seeing the incoming bid, front-ran the bid by stepping in and buying S&P futures. This pushed the market back up, ended the correction, and prevented financial panic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/paul-craig-roberts-exposes-plunge-protection-teams-fraud
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-02-07_18-59-20.jpg
He thinks the effect will continue, as well, and he may be correct:
I agree that the valuation have to continue or there will be a massive market correction. So, this will not be allowed to happen. At least on paper. I wouldn’t call it fraud. It is a necessity to prevent collapse. We can assume then that there is no plan B.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTLqp-KKuo4
Yes someday this war is gonna end….. some day the CBs are going to push a button … and nothing happens…. and then the enemy is going to pour through the gates and over the wall…. and we are going to be slaughtered…
But one thing is for certain …the CBs will do whatever they can … whatever it takes… to prevent that moment…. they will not shoot BAU in the foot…. and initiate the end….
Comment held…
Anyway .. here’s a gift idea for that special Green Groopie MORE on in your life:
In February 2015, Po…rnhub announced that they were developing a wearable device titled Wa…nkband that lets users charge their smart devices with the kinetic energy generated through the up and down motions of male mastu…rbation:
https://susannapaasonen.org/2017/03/08/briefly-on-por……nhubs-pr-campaigns/
http://theplaidzebra.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Wank-Bank.jpg
Who said the end game was not going to be a march towards total insanity?
Wankstein power!
I am feeling something … it’s coming to me now …. I am seeing millions of teenagers…. and fat hairy men in wife beater shirts living in their parents basements…
All have been provided with w an k bracelets…. that are hooked into the grid…. and all have p or n streaming day and night…. and they are force fed pure protein solution (like fois gros geese) ….
And they are powered the world! Sorry Keith — you missed the boat…. we do NOT need you and your space solar …. and Elon – ki ss our collective a sses
Sun of a B itch….. this is momentous…. this is fire/steam/oil/computers x 1000000…
This is The Answer!
Full steam ahead…. come on boys …. keep the pistons pumping ….
The W ank Revolution has arrived. Free – Unlimited — Green Power!!!
Hallelujah…. Hallelujah….. As long as the p orn keeps on streaming …. we’ve got our perpetual prosperity masheen
https://m.popkey.co/0b65cd/Voeqp.gif
Epic
sounds like a Rick and Morty episode where the whole civilisation in Rick’s car battery must power the battery by walking on step machines.
I’m going to blue sky this… instead of making a *wrist* band, make it small enough to fit the ‘lads’ and put a few triboelectric nanogenerators on the inner surface. Then it’s time for Orgy-porgy!
Creamy handshakes for everybody!!!!
EEEEEEEEWWWWW!!!
Slogan for ad campaign – Can you “handle” the power?
The State of the American Debt Slaves
Total consumer credit rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter, year over year, to a record $3.84 trillion not seasonally adjusted, according to the Federal Reserve. This includes credit-card debt, auto loans, and student loans, but not mortgage-related debt.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/08/the-state-of-the-american-debt-slaves/
https://srsroccoreport.com/future-u-s-production-will-collapse-just-quickly-increased/
1. the fact that they make no money does not matter – the Fed will make sure of that
2. I thought shale was going to terminally decline shortly — when in fact the opposite is happening
This could go on for a lot longer than anyone – including Art Berman – think.
Or maybe this is all hands on deck and they are pumping like hell to offset declines in KSA and elsewhere…. and this is us:
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/HG92H2/business-illustration-about-blindfolded-businesspeople-walking-along-HG92H2.jpg
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
They have the pedal to the metal with shale….. and yet prices have been rising….
And seems to be an urgent push into deep sea production….
Meanwhile…. there is turmoil in KSA…. and statements inferring they are approaching peak…
Hmmmm…..
“Meanwhile…. there is turmoil in KSA…. and statements inferring they are approaching peak…” – I agree that is very troubling. It has to happen at some point. When Saudi production begins its inevitable decline things will get ugly very very fast in SA. A desert nation with very high population growth rates and oil production in decline – not a good combination.
Don’t forget the vast wealth inequality as an ingredient in the mix. It might end up looking something like the Red Terror.
I doubt that Saudi Arabia has been making adequate investment to keep production up, because of low prices. Indirectly, it will be low prices that cause its production to decline.
“1. the fact that they make no money does not matter – the Fed will make sure of that”
At some point oil price increases & free money won’t matter because the value of the money in the rest of the economy can’t be translated into the energy and resources required to extract, transport and use energy/resources. There has to be some sort of explicit redistribution of priorities for it to work. The rest of the economy must contract one way or another in order for energy production to sustain itself.
US Shale oil and gas analysts are making the same mistake the neo economists make with Minsky Moment – assuming our global economy today is a closed system. It is not.
Shale supplies need not to be considered energy supplies but psychological and financial instrument and tool to balance the market, in the first place.
What is really produced or not, and what it did cost – doesn’t matter, at all.
Being not readily refinable, no car, truck, train or airplane will stop tomorrow in the US if shale is not produced – they simply don’t use shale oil.
Financially, if I was a US citizen, I would be pleased when shale debt increases so money is spent inside the US rather than giving it to 2nd-tier oil exporting nations in the ME, Russia, Africa and S.A. – if conventional oil prices go up without practicing shale’s psychological choreography.
Americans, Fast Eddy, need not to worry about debt, it is in Huxley’s ‘Over Organisation’ safe hands. No Minsky Moment will ever happen in an open system fed by FF, as long as there are always more FF supplies come in cheaply, day in day out.
Shale oil and gas: The ultimate in proving money CAN manufacture energy reserves (well, with a bit of help from ‘carrot and stick’ practices, here and there) 🙂 🙂 🙂
What Peak Oil? What Minsky Moment? Both are gone! Hurray! 🙂 🙂 🙂
I agree that US oil production is better than imports. Importing countries are at a disadvantage. Oil producers have the advantage of jobs, taxes, and not needing oil imports.
” The ultimate in proving money CAN manufacture energy reserves” – This statement has always bothered me. Mainly in two ways.
First, at the most fundamental level, it takes energy to get energy – not money. If an economy passes a critical threshold of energy used to procure more energy, the system will cease to function.
Secondly, money today is faith based. Faith is a fickle thing. It can be there one day and gone the next. So, to me it isn’t so much that money produces energy but rather faith in the system that encourages workers to keep producing. If the net energy isn’t there the faith will be lost.
There is the issue that more debt can be helpful in getting the price of oil up. At least part of the process is that some of the debt goes into wages. Some of the debt goes into buying power. It is price of oil (plus technology, plus availability of debt at low price, plus the nature or resources, plus a few other things) that determines how much oil can be extracted. At a higher price, more advanced techniques can be used, and more oil can be extracted. Oil reserves are not a fixed amount.
Debt is a promise for future goods and services made with energy products. It can be a false promise, but it still works. It acts like energy, but it isn’t.
Of course, if the value of what is produced with the oil is not high enough, this approach won’t work. But it is basically the approach we have been using for a very long time, however.
The issue we are approaching is collapse, based on too little energy per capita, in my opinion. This is a different issue than net energy.
I was remembering when Charles Hall was working on the net energy concept around 2012-14? It makes good sense to me but a bunch of academics came out protesting Hall’s assumptions etc but then haven’t heard much from critics……………….
Do you know if the critics were able to get any traction? I haven’t heard of any more open opposition to the net energy concept.
In a sense, I am probably one of the critics. I have been a speaker at nearly all of the conferences. I should have written an academic article related to this issue, but haven’t.
I see EROEI of energy products as looking in the wrong direction. We need to understand the trend in the quantity of energy products consumed per capita, to see if an economy is doing well. A comparison of energy out versus energy in doesn’t really tell us enough to be very helpful.
The EROEI interest comes from Charlie Hall’s background in biology. It is known that an animal needs to get sufficient energy from its food to make it worthwhile to go on long hunting expeditions for it, or to swim upstream to get it. The animal needs to cover its basic metabolic processes, plus have the extra energy to make the trip to find the food. So for at least some animals, a ratio of 10:1 is needed for energy out compared to energy in. The problem is that basic metabolic energy needs are very high; an animal cannot go running off for distant food, unless the return is high enough to cover the basic metabolic costs in addition to the energy needed for getting the food.
With an animal, we are dealing with a fairly well-defined situation. We know what the basic metabolic needs are. Food is eaten and metabolized very quickly–there are not huge time lags involved. Food is easily measured as calories. The kinds of food a particular animal eats are fairly standardized. They do not fill themselves up with potato chips and candy.
When it comes to the human economy, what needs to be high enough is the return on human labor. This is what I see as being parallel to the return needed for an animal. The return on human labor reflects what a person can earn (in terms of the goods and services the person can purchase). This depends very much upon how much energy per capita is available in the economy. This is the reason for my interest in energy per capita and wage disparity. The wages of the non-elite workers tends to fall too low if energy per capita is too low. It is humans who in some sense power the economy; if they cannot earn sufficient income so that they can buy the goods the economy makes, the economy collapses.
Charlie Hall’s calculation has to do with how much energy of various kinds is needed to produce some kind of energy product. Producers of energy products are always very conscious of the fact that costs of producing their products cannot be too high, or they (the producers) will not be able to make a profit. So there is a natural “lid” on how much energy goes into making energy products, if energy products are not subsidized by governments. Prices theoretically take into account all costs, including transportation costs, taxes, lease costs, interest costs, human labor costs, and the return needed by the company producing the energy product.
But researchers don’t know what a company’s costs are, so Charlie Hall came up with a way that graduate students could estimate at least part of the costs–the energy costs that can be easily measured. I think of it as being like measuring the tops of icebergs. We really don’t know what share of costs are being measured. Meetings about EROEI talk about “boundaries” and how to get “wider boundaries.” EROEI can be used to compare two oil fields; or one oil field, a few years apart. When EROEI is used to compare two very similar things, it “sort of” works OK.
A major problem is that EROEI ends up being used to justify the use of energy products that require subsidies (even though that was not originally the intended purpose). The view by some is that if the EROEI is greater than 1:1, then a substitute must be a worthwhile product. If you read EROEI papers by Charlie Hall, Dave Murphy, and others carefully, you will discover statements about needing an EROEI of at least 10:1, based on what animals seem to need. Elsewhere there is a calculation indicating that an EROEI of at least 3:1 is needed to cover transportation costs. But these ratios gets lost papers by others. Furthermore, it is not clear that these ratios are high enough. If an economy really needs $20 per barrel oil to operate very well, that would imply the need for a higher-yet EROEI, say 50:1. So decisions are being made that wind, solar and biofuels are good substitutes for oil and coal, without understanding what threshold they need to cross, to really be useful.
EROEI has been described by some researchers as a very “blunt tool.” Something with an EROEI of 100:1 is good. As a person starts getting EROEI ratios below 50:1, it doesn’t tell a person very much.
I should add that “Net Energy” is equal to “Energy Out” minus “Energy In.” But we know “Energy In” in is understated by a very large factor, perhaps 3, or 10 or 50. So “Net Energy” has no real meaning–it only subtracts the tops of icebergs that we have been able to measure from the total energy produced. It seems to me that this definition of Net Energy is what has confused researchers looking for energy substitutes for fossil fuels. They assume that any energy product with positive net energy is helpful, when this is not clear at all.
I feel that it is energy that ties everything together. Energy gives money value. Diminishing returns affects every real process. Money is not a real process, it is virtual and infinite. As the availability of energy continues to diminish, so too do standards of living. Infinite money won’t matter. What will trigger the discontinuity from where we are now – to where we are heading – is unknown. But, I feel it will be sudden. I hope I am wrong. I hope that money printing and faith in finance will allow BAU to continue for decades longer.
Money is always a promise of future energy (or work but we know work and energy are physically equivalent quantities).
Just following on from Gail’s comment, that I fully agree with.
Here in Victoria Aus, we have a known 430 Billion tonnes of low quality lignite, but there is a huge amount of energy embodied in this quantity.
Should this energy be turned into a liquid fuel, with say 5Mj in to get 1Mj of liquid fuel out, the return on energy invested is horrible, yet it is possible to do at not a great cost in dollar terms.
This lignite is mostly in 200m thick seams only 10-20m below the surface, so is easily dug out of the ground.
It would basically turn a non useful form of energy into a useful form, but simply is not on anyone’s radar due to the pollution/cl.imate problems.
If we could imagine where the world would be in terms of liquid fuels availability, if all the money spent on the tight oil extraction, had instead been spent on large coal to liquids projects around the world on large coal deposits. It seems that money can be wasted on the shale projects that have massive depletion rates, so why not coal to liquid??, before it is too late?? (it probably is too late now).
Two comments:
(1) Large quantities of water seem to be needed for coal-to-liquid processes. This very often rules out the process. China and the US West have a lot of coal, but probably not enough water.
(2) The cost is higher than you might think. I am sure that coal-to-liquids cannot compete with $60 per barrel oil. I found an undated presentation (also no name of presenter) from the University of Texas that says:
If it were feasible… we’d be doing it…. See shale….
No rock remains unturned in the quest to extend BAU….
I am reading a book by this Francis Fukuhama …. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Origins_of_Political_Order
It is well researched… well written… and contains some very deep insights into our nature and how and why we transitioned from small groups to complex societies….
Fukuyama has also been involved in formulating US foreign policy…. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama#Neoconservatism
The point I am making here is that America — the el ders — the neocons… the CIA —- the decision-makers….. are absolutely thorough in assessing issues…. they have think tanks filled with men like Fukuyama advising them…
They are not – as we are lead to believe — bumbling fools thrashing about like blind bulls in a China shop….. that notion is just ridiculous
Whether it is foreign policy, the state of the world’s oil reserves, the global economy — the best minds have turned over every rock…. they have looked at the base of every ice berg…
NOTHING happens by chance….
If the think tanks determine that globalization was a good thing — then policies are rolled out to ensure globalization happens — tariff barriers are removed…. jobs are offshored… and away we go….
If the think tanks determine that conventional oil is about to peak … then policies are rolled out to ensure that shale happens….
If oil prices must be goosed to make shale happens… and that this will create massive headwinds for growth — then policies are rolled out to offset the headwinds for long enough to sink investment into alternative oil production — after which the price of oil can be allowed to adjust downwards and take the pressure off….
If the gold standard needs to go … then it goes…. and on and on and on…..
You do not get to command a very complex world without being extremely thorough —without surrounding yourself with very capable people …. who you EXPECT to tell you when you are not wearing any clothes…
No more than you get to be the top scorer in the NBA without having both incredible skills, natural athletic ability AND an extreme work ethic and high level of dedication to the sport (and a strong supporting cast of team mates).
This is of course no guarantee that the commanders are going to always make the best decisions — but it is certain that they are going to have comprehensive information available to assist them in deciding which levers to push ….
If you make too many mistakes… if you are not thorough … if you are not prepared…. then you lose your crown…. if the top NBA scorer gets lazy…. fails to train as hard… gets old… loses his touch…. he too gets usurped….
I think Robert Pirsig had something to say about all of this.
US Deficit Spending in just 2018
2018 Budget Deficit- around U$D 2,000,000,000,000
+
2018 Tax Cut- U$D 1,500,000,000,000
+
2018 Budget Compromise- U$D 300,000,000,000
=
2018 Deficit Spending = U$D 3,800,000,000,000 (or 3.8 Trillion US Dollars)
This is why the Eurasian Union is building a separate financial system to survive the coming dollar implosion.
need a link.
I agree–we need some backup. There is likely some overlap in your first two categories.
At the same time, I have a suspicion that planned deficit spending is very high. This is why hoped-for GDP growth is very high.
OOPs. Sorry. I included the projected deficit for 2019 in the first category.
I am betting we will have a bunch more of these charges to the deficit as we go forward
I would bet the same way. The Economist’s new issue relates to the extremely stimulative effects of the new US tax bill. One of its lead articles is “America’s extraordinary economic gamble: Fiscal policy is adding to demand even as the economy is running hot.
https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21736513-fiscal-policy-adding-demand-even-economy-running-hot-americas-extraordinary
Future U.S. Oil Production Will Collapse Just As Quickly As It Increased
https://srsroccoreport.com/future-u-s-production-will-collapse-just-quickly-increased/
in honor of the late great BAU…
Steve Howe when he was young and still did his facial contortions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNUedapF-bo
a million notes in 3+ minutes!
so he misses a few…
For those of us who bought the original album on vinyl, it will always be “The Clap”—one of the best songs about gonorrhea ever.
One of Steve’s biggest influences was the great Spanish acoustic guitarist Andres Sergovia, who incidentally also inspired Manuel of Fawlty Towers fame.
https://youtu.be/9efHwnFAkuA
An incompetent waiter was based on the greatest guitarist of the 20th c? Anyway, Segovia’s Bach arrangements are revelatory:
After so much teerh gnashing and so many “weird” ramps in the stock markets, yet we are still not going anywhere (with a lot probability going down), are the CBs hitting the point of no return on their manipulation? The law of diminished returns works great anywhere on earth.
IMO they are hitting diminishing returns on the current method of injecting money into the market directly and the next solution will have to be helicopter money / UBI. Instead of directly inflating stock prices and thus sending them out of whack with EPS, you’ll increase earnings by injecting money into the economy of goods and services and thus making it look like the market has more solid fundamentals when it’s really just inflating things from the other end.
Perhaps I lack imagination but these seems like about the only option they have left.
I agree djerek, but that is their last resort, because they know that directly leads to hyper-inflation and total collapse. It’s been my opinion for some time all roads of this nature lead to the same place; hyper-inflation, then what to do when the USD is virtually valueless? Pillage for what’s left.
That’s why I have been posting information about the latest tax cut, to point out that it speeds up the process of going further into debt and closer to collapse. Cutting corporate taxes from 35 to 21% is suicidal. Go on YouTube and listen to Stockman and others on the topic. Already the deficit is ballooning so fast the govt. is having special meetings trying to work out a way to borrow more to keep BAU going.
UBI “… that is their last resort, because they know that directly leads to hyper-inflation and total collapse.”
which is why they will not do it, so it’s not a last resort at all… it’s not in the playbook…
“they” fear hyper-inflation AND deflation…
one of biggest challenges for CBs is to avoid both.
so, what can they do?
I think hyperinflation will be the escape, being the path of least resistance as compared to deflation, which is basically insufferable. The end result will ultimately be pretty much the same but the path there very different. Here is a good blog and post in particular that discusses this issue and the rationale.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html
“one of biggest challenges for CBs is to avoid both.”
Obviously, but when it reaches a point they can no longer hold the edifice together they will because ultimately the game must be taken as far as it can.
“biggest challenges for CBs is to avoid both”; i imagine it would be in a free market / capitalistic system. But it would appear we are no longer in such a situation; at least not where strategic / TBTF companies are concerned. If such entities can inject all the money they want & TBTF have first access to it; would either hyperinflation or deflation be a problem ? Especially if “they” are planning some sort of transition to a command & control economy ? Deflation would essentially favour savers AND enable TBTF to buy on the cheap whatever was still missing from their hitlist AND kill off all non-essential consumption. But i agree it would – given that most people have more debts than savings- be a path that would receive a lot of resistance. They being said, if you own EVERYTHING & control EVERYTHING, is resistance really a problem? What “resistance” did Greece offer when all its assets were put on sale & when repeated pension cuts were made ?
Just musing here….
More so than resistance, deflation would implode the economy because the paper assets based on debt would disappear when people started defaulting en masse. Inflation is a far less painful road in a debt-based economy.
Deflation and zero/negative interest?
People/entities get cut off from credit but they don’t get to default.
The budget compromise involves USD 300,000,000,000.00 (300 Biillion US$) addition to the national debt. They are embarking on full-scale money-printing. Look at the psychology- these guys are fully emboldened that they can do this only time or two- and we will solve the debt crisis when the economy is better (heha).
They think that money-printing is like pulling up to a gas station and filling up the budget with money. Yeah when the U$D finally goes down, life will change permanently. Remember that our US leaders are not preparing options for the population is these fanciful schemes do not work out.
Oh yes. And the GOP wants to increase military spending in a big way- maybe a 120 USD increase, preparing the US for all kinds of foreign adventures against nuke-armed super-powers. Oh and the big military parade………….
So how about a real war with a real nuclear super-power like Russia. No Libya level opponent. We are talking about stripping the country bare to fight a long existential war with a dangerous rival that will hurt us badly and keep us engaged for maybe decades in a war that will leave the US looking like Russia after WW2. Why?
This is a get-out-of- dodge event. Meaning that anybody w their brain still working can clearly see that the financial train is going off the rails in a big way in DC and that now is the time to get out of the U$D.
There is zero ability to fight a war against Russia. The US has no morale for that kind of war. Any continued military action will be more proxy conflicts to attempt to secure resources and usage of the dollar.
The GOP has never seen a war it didn’t like. I think these folks are crazy enough to start a big one wo understanding the consequences.
Please f789 off with this shi t.
Both parties line up side by side on war votes.
Just as they do on votes regarding restricting the power of the NSA to violate the constitution and spy on Americans (and everyone else)
There is NO f789ing difference between these parties — they BOTH take their orders from a higher power.
Isn’t it obvious?
I guess not — just like XXX XXXing is a ho ax is not obvious
Before liberal Bush came along it was a Democrat president who got us in every war of the 20th century.
I would agree with Fast Eddy. The Democrats are at least as likely to get us into war as Republicans.
Republicans perhaps personally see the job opportunities. They don’t live in the major cities as much. Military is an option open to those who can’t find jobs elsewhere.
How about …
The el ders will instruct whichever party is in power… to go to war… when the el ders have determined war is necessary to defend their global empire….
i.e. if any state on the planet dares to challenge the el ders … and they cannot be crushed through other means including subversion or economic punishments (introduced by Economic Hitmen) … and if the Jackals sent in to eliminate them fail… then the el ders will instruct their minions to roll out the war machine and bomb them into the stone age… or … if the opponent has nuclear arms… attempt to weaken and topple the leaders of that country via proxy wars and other means
You need to understand the mentality of the US conservatives.. Fighting wars to a US southerner is a religion all of it’s own. They deeply treasure all the mementos and memories of war. They endlessly bask in the lore and history of past wars and pine for new wars so that new glory and memories will be generated. They re-enact over and over again the bloody butchery of battles from the 1860s where over 700,000 soldiers died- largely from the diabolical effects of new artillery products. Like a religion, actually.
So constant war is pretty much accepted here. That’s what we do. And we expect to win every time.
Yes and the media always spreads the fake news to manufacturer the consent for war..See Iraq WMD’s and Syria Gas Attack…
Sungr is an ideology who cannot see past his nose. He somehow misses that fact that Neocons are imbedded in both parties. Hillary would have been the worst…we would be in WWIII if she had been elected.
It is a fact that southerners populate the military in numbers greater than their population percentage. It is considered patriotic and “to be brave” I guess. I personally find it strange that southerners, defeated in the “Northern War of Aggression” are now more patriotic in the sense of serving in the military, than other regions. It might be attributed to the fact that more southerners are still “semi-tied” to more rural, less industrialized economy. It is also “family tradition” of bravery and military honor.
Not sure, but I happen to be working right now in Alabama. I am not from here. But I heard a man commenting that his teenage daughter is in a preparatory National Guard program. I was thinking, why would you want your teenage daughter to signup for the Guard, where the feds can send you on endless tours, at least up to four for many who have been sent to Iraq and Afganistan, to a war that has questionable connection to our freedom and defense?
I think that for poor southerners….it may have been an economic escape valve possibly. The military will always get the poor to fight their wars.
The South has a lot of poor people who barely made it through high school. Disproportionately, they seem to be the people who sign up for the military. Of course, there are some who go toward the officer training track as well. It is not looked down upon, the way it is in the North.
I’m fully agreed that the democrats are now a pretty bad bunch- they are absolutely insane with the Russia probe stuff. I half supported Trump with the idea that avoiding war with the Russkies was worth putting up with the rest of the Trump agenda.
No passes for the DNC from me.
The Neocon women who Hillary was ready to appoint were Victoria Nuland, Samantha Powers, as well as herself. Nuland with Neocon husband were the driving force behind the Ukraine destabilization & provoking Russia.
You might find this interesting….
http://hugequestions.com/Eric/TFC/FromOthers/list-of-neocons-for-Iraq-war.htm
“… the financial train is going off the rails in a big way in DC and that now is the time to get out of the U$D.”
so… why then are (low FF resources) Europe and Japan also not going off the rails?
and every (low priced) oil exporting country? and China?
where’s the guaranteed alternative to the U$D?
Bitcoin?
Japan went off the rails long ago. They have been in deflation since 1988 and supported by the triumvirate of CBs- the FED, the ECB, and the JCB. These banks work together to dominate the global financial system and switch leadership from time to time.
These countries all have different situations. The US is in the situation of having the global reserve currency & associated problems. And of having a financial system that runs the world for the benefit of western powers. The position of China is somewhat like the US in the Great Depression where the rising manufacturing nation gets torpedoed when imports collapse. The ECB is currently way out there and may be a source of global risk.
Some of the better thinking out there says that a global economic reset ends up with a global currency of SDRs and a basket of currencies + maybe gold. The USD becomes one of the basket but wo seignorage advantages of a reserve currency.
“wo seignorage”
?
Seignorage is the difference between the face value of money and the cost to produce it.
wo is a common abbreviation for without
Seignorage historically means that the issuer of the reserve currency gets a 10-15% boost to their national income in the process.
But the reserve currency issuer also has a lot of problems- ie the issuers export sector may have problems with policies regarding reserve currency managment.
“Oh yes. And the GOP wants to increase military spending in a big way- maybe a 120 USD increase, preparing the US for all kinds of foreign adventures against nuke-armed super-powers. Oh and the big military parade………….”
Exactly, oh my, Speier or however you spell her name, a house rep. said about the idea of the parade, “We’re seeing the making of a Napoleon.” I think she’s right. After the Olympics it’s either time to take out NK or it will never be attempted. That’s the timing with the development of nukes and ICBM’s. I think Trump has every intention of going big on wars. Not just little incursions but the big stuff.
Maybe Trump is thinking of increased military spending as a US jobs program. Some of the jobs are military hires; some are contractors; some are making goods for the military.
Also, if there are economic problems, citizens seem to like a war.
Oh, that was 120 Billion U$D for the Pentagon. Russia spends about 65 Billiion U$D on their entire defense program. Of course, Putin did a stealth buildup in the last decade or so and may still be doing so.
I guess it’s not just the financial train running off the tracks but the entire sanity of the US leadership. The current US leadership is losing it’s grip with reality and is still thinking that the US runs the world and everyone is our peasant.
Nope. The US will have to accept a mult-polar world. It will really be a lot better for us and, besides, the empire business just is more trouble than it’s worth.
The ROW has the problem of backing the snarling hegemon down to a multi-polar status- wo ending up in a nuke shootout with Dr. Strangelove.
I think that the recent tax cut is very close to equivalent to “helicopter money” without being so obvious. The plan is lots more debt to fund this.
Endless student loans…. low interest mortgages … long term auto loans… etc etc etc…
It’s all just disguised helicopter money at the end of the day.
Funny how people don’t see that — unless they see actual helicopters scattering trillions of dollars over cities… they will remain oblivious.
Elon Musk’s Tesla announces biggest quarterly loss ever
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/07/tesla-quarterly-loss-elon-musk-spacex
Fantastic news!
I have emails of the two clowns who write the Tesla puff pieces… I’ll pass this along 🙂
Well worth watching and funnier than FE
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GIpm_8v80hw
Yes, very entertaining. I have this on DVD. Remember those?
breaking news:
the stock markets are up!
oh, wait, now they’re down!
no, up again!
the excitement is almost unbearable.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XFzx8G-4Lk4/Wnss6tK7ZsI/AAAAAAABdAE/xziMCvzJ2sIkNMalrEvC0xh-3Z-9RoeCQCLcBGAs/s1600/VXO_RVX.png
The Dow ended down slightly, and oil went down. https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
WTI been going down for a few days and is now down to $61.66 (or at least last I checked).
There does seem to be a greater amount of volatility lately. Something’s up.
Crude oil stocks are up again. They now have rising for two weeks. The third week back, crude oil stocks fell, but by only about 1 million barrels. Rising stocks tend to push prices down.
The weekly estimate of US crude oil production is up quite a bit, as well. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
I don’t think the production estimates can get very far off, because they seem to more or less seem to balance (I checked) to refinery inputs, net imports, and changes in changes in inventories. Thus, the really high Permian Basin numbers we saw recently may, in fact, be right. All of the drilling recently seems to still be producing oil. Maybe at some point we reach the “Red Queen” effect, but probably not yet.
Keep yer heads down, boys. Too many moving parts.
Remember that China is now the biggest elephant in the global financial jungle.
The Chinese reaction to the recent US Nuke Strategy paper can be taken as a high probability that they will be stepping up the financial/economic warfare activities to hasten the downfall of the US hegemon.
China has many options- they are the super-computer nation now.
Noam must be jesting when he uses the phrase: “respected political figure”. There is no such thing. Like saying the most respected snake oil salesman. Or, the most respected quack doctor.
Gandhi? Maybe Hugo Salinas Price? Icelandic politicians are not taking any guff from the banker criminals.
Actually, the pope is a pretty good politician- altho I am not partial to medieval institutions like the catholic church. El Papa went to Myanmar and focused international light on the Rhohingya genocide situation, embarassing the Myanmar leadership in front of the entire world.
I quit the article when he fumed against Donald Trump and the fact that he does not buy into climate change. Also, Donald Trump is a warmonger (which he might run out to be) but Sweet little Obama must not have participated in destroying Libya and Syria. I actually have a friend who is brainwashed by PBS, NPR and CNN that the US did not participate in destroying Libya…that France and the UK did it. We “only” allowed them to use our aircraft….if you can believe such nonsense.
We “only” allowed them to use our aircraft…
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
I’ve had a libTARD claim that Obama’s wars are not a big deal — because very few American soldiers were killed….
But… I said… entire countries have been destroyed… millions of peoples lives are in tatters… thousands are dead…
All that matters in America is that few Americans were killed …
No doubt — but you personally are ok with this?
Incoherent mumbling…. then silence ….
The same person also insisted that Russian controls Trump…. when I asked what evidence there was for that he said ‘the CIA says so’
To which I responded – would that be the same CIA that you and I railed against because they lied about WMD?
His brain then exploded… and then Cognitive Dissonance stepped in to put it back together
There can be no reasoning with these people…. there is no reasoning with almost all people
I just tell people that the open air markets are open again in Libya and call it a day.
Noam Chomsky: We’re on the Brink of Global Catastrophe
https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/noam-chomsky-were-brink-global-catastrophe
I agree with Noam Chomsky. We are near the cliff edge. Hope everyone has an iPhone so they can film it and post it on FaceBook.
yes, indeed, we are very near the cliff edge…
especially Chomsky, who is 89 years old…
I bet he goes “over the cliff edge” long before The Collapse.
Funny how Obama gets a pass….
But then … Bush nor Obama nor Trump… are responsible for any of this…. they are just actors…
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/bvo-150522035405-lva1-app6891/95/bush-vs-obama-by-the-numbers-3-638.jpg
https://waronjesus.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/303687_433664670002739_1227079433_n.jpg
Isn’t this the very thing you were criticizing me for – Partisan Politics?
Let me explain this to you … as if you were a grade 3 student… I will pretend I am Justin Trudeau.
So … there is a country called America. And the people vote for their leader. They believe the leader is very powerful – the most powerful man on earth.
But the leader really has no power at all.
JH puts his hand up – but how do we know that Master Fast?
Because if you look at the chart I posted… the leaders do exactly the same things – no matter who they are. And this would indicate that someone else has the power. And that the leader no more than a middle manager at a large company — who takes orders from his bosses and board of directors…..
Obama Bush Clinton Trump — same same same same same
Now do you get it?
US politics is just a dog & pony show- nobody with brains should attach any significance to the US leader/morons.
These guys all work for the big money interests & don’t have time or resources to do any work for the electorate.
Money corruption in politics- brought to you by the GOP which has defeated every corruption and get money out of politics measure ever presented.
https://imgur.com/a/c7TMe
Wise words. True words.
!!!
The plan might be to provoke someone to war to cover for the economic collapse. The elites hope someone will drop a nuclear bomb on a major US city to cause chaos. The elites plan to be safe in their silos while the rest of the population suffers. Economic problem solved. Angry US population neutralized…
The Shale Boom Might Not Last Long
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Might-Not-Last-Long.html
The argument seems to be about how high prices can rise and how much technology can improve.
S&P Warns High Corporate Debt Could Trigger Next Default Cycle
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/s-p-warns-high-corporate-debt-could-trigger-next-default-cycle
I haven’t read the article, but yeah…
who would ever think that high debts could lead to defaults on high debts?
Justin Trudeau is the elected leader of a wealthy, first world nation.
Fast Eddy is a loser who spends his time posting repetitive comments on a doomer internet blog.
Just saying. Just reminding you guys of your place in the scheme of things, lest you get big heads just because you “get it” and nobody else does.
“Just reminding you guys of your place in the scheme of things”
I suspect most of us understand our insignificance very well, even Crazy Eddy.
BTW, according to your own logic, you have a big head because you think you are superior to us in terms of getting it.
FE is a superior loser.
Fast Eddy (the symbol) is not insignificant at all.
He is my invention … and he is the voice of Logic and Reason.
He is the World Champion. Of that there can be no doubt.
He is important because he is The Destroyer of Delusion and Koombaya. I see that as a very important role.
Fast Eddy should be offered a late night talk show slot – he is deserving of a broad pulpit. If the world were sane.
FE appears to be a successful enough businessman – hence his world travels and mulitiple relocations. I believe his grandfather was a poor immigrant to Canada? Not exactly a loser.
And Trudeau? What has he ever done?
Using this line of thinking one would assume a person is a winner if he/she is a politician or well-known from TV. Fortunately, I think a bit differently, I assume everyone on TV is a loser until they can prove otherwise. And anyone in politics is a loser as well, until their actions prove otherwise. I make the reverse assumption of people I interact with. I assume they are winners unless they prove otherwise.
He wore a pussy hat!
Turdo has pretty socks I have not seen one pic of FE socks.
I mostly wear flip flops … so no socks.
and look at all of us talking about FE…
Feeble Eddy, you win!
go FE!
FE forever!
well, at least until Creeping Collapse gets us.
People like to talk about World Champions….
Fast Eddy is The World Champion – of Everything (and son of a lowly esteemed, drunken truck driver)
Justin Trudeau is a Grade 3 teacher MORE On Snowflake who has minimal ability who rode his daddy’s name to high office.
Does that make Fast Eddy better than Justin Trudeau?
You bet your f789ing as.s it does.
Eddy, but Ivana Trump doesn’t look you like she does Justin, so I am sad to say, you have failed in one important quality of harem master + resources, status and good looks 😉
Given that abundance/success is a state of mind rather than an objective reality and primarily entails being grateful for what you already have (which I’m sure most of us here on OFW are, precisely because we *do* get it), you could make a case we are ‘wealthier’ and more successful than the political and financial elites.
In fact their insatiable greed and ambition are arguably a curse – they are the cogs doomed to spin fastest in the thermodynamic heat engine that is the global economy, unaware that they are the pawns of physical and biological forces beyond their control. And of course the net result tends to be all manner of social dysfunction and unhappiness. Just look at how f**ked in the head most of their kids are.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world
Elon Musk does it again! He took a car to space!!!
As he promised. A flying Tesla Before 2019.
it’s a grand dream…
it’s so spectacular that only a mind as powerful as his could come up with such amazement…
don’t you see?
in the 2030s, there will be colonies on Mars!
and, here’s the real genius:
those colonists will be driving around the Martian terrain in Teslas!
wow! is your mind now completely blown?
it seems to me that shooting a dodgy motor into orbit—and thus getting its picture on the front page of every newspaper, has to be the best advertising stunt ever
Nothing more environmentally friendly than burning literal tons of fossil fuel to launch a car into space and turn it into space junk.
The irony of “greens” promoting this kind of thing is truly entertaining.
New Tesla Model X is too heavy to legally drive over the Brooklyn Bridge
But the biggest surprise of all: the new Tesla Model X, has a curb weight that is under 6,000 pounds but in fact has a real GVWR (Gross Vehicle Weight Rating) of 6,768 pounds.
https://www.treehugger.com/cars/new-tesla-model-x-too-heavy-legally-drive-over-brooklyn-bridge.html
Hummer H2
Width 81.3 in (2,065 mm)
Height 2003–05: 77.8 in (1,976 mm) 2006–09: 79.0 in (2,007 mm)
Curb weight 6,400 lb (2,903 kg) – 6.0 L 6,614 lb (3,000 kg) – 6.2 L
Apparently Tesla has exclusive rights to sell cars on Mars… that’s why their valuation is so high….
I didn’t make that up …. I read it on Bloomberg….
I don’t believe a word coming out of musk mole’s mouth.
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/SqbnoqiUpa0/maxresdefault.jpg
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f6/7c/06/f67c060f67b135b9b66bf29a54ba502c.jpg
https://pics.me.me/canada-has-neither-a-national-identity-or-culture-worth-preserving-22406674.png
Canada’s national embarrassment
Sweden would be proud to have Justin as prime minister.
There is no doubt about that…. I am sure Denmark would be proud to have him as well.
I was in Copenhagen a couple of years ago and I saw they had a substantial Koombaya exhibition that was aimed at welcoming the riff raff refugees that were pouring into the country…. I stood looking at that shaking my head….
When your government bases their policies on a song… you know you are in trouble….
Speaking of Canada, here’s an excerpt from an article by Alice “the other Gail’ Friedemann:
“They used 2016 data from a typical three-bedroom house in Victoria with an annual load—or average electricity demand—of 9,600 kilowatt hour (kWh). The house uses natural gas for its heating and a conventional gasoline vehicle, meaning no extra load from these sources.
A common PV system is 12 kilowatts (kW) as a larger PV system requires more roof. Researchers found that given Victoria’s solar irradiance, a 12 kW PV system needs a 1,766 kWh battery to achieve self-sufficiency. This is equivalent to 131 Tesla Powerwalls.
Another option is to reduce the size of battery and buy a larger PV system, as more energy is available and thus less needs to be stored. If a homeowner bought a 30-kW PV system, they could get away with a 289 kWh battery (equivalent to 21 Powerwalls). But this PV system would require an area of roughly 300 square meters (3,200 square feet)—about the size of a tennis court.
They ran the numbers for Vancouver, Kelowna and Calgary. The results for Vancouver and Kelowna similar to Victoria. But Calgary, with its clearer winters, required less PV and battery capacity to be self-sufficient. Calgarians could make do with a 9 kW PV system and about 62 Powerwalls. With a 30 kW PV system, taking up 240 m2 (2,475 square feet), the homeowner needs roughly 10 Powerwalls.”
http://energyskeptic.com/2018/want-to-go-off-grid-you-might-need-hundreds-of-tesla-batteries/
I am sure that the process works less badly in California, New Mexico, or Hawaii. But the process probably works even worse in Europe, because it tends to be far north and is covered with clouds.
“the process probably works even worse in Europe, because it tends to be far north and is covered with clouds.”
In WW2, the Allied bombing campaigns against Germany would encounter this extreme winter cloudiness and were often unable to actually make visual contact with ground targets.
Pathfinder bombers would lead the bomber fleets against specified targets but were often unable to improve bombing accuracy, especially in attacks on Berlin. These expert navigators would do their best locating ground targets and then drop a passel of flares into the clouds over the located target. The rest of the bomber fleet would drop bomb loads into the descending flare markers without ever seeing the target.
The flare target markers were known as “christmas trees”.
I live in NM, so although I have an innate dislike for PV solar, the fact that it works less badly here will tamp down my anti solar rhetoric a bit and make me slightly less reviled.
I live in Victoria (Aus) and even on the worst cloudy rainy days in the middle of winter, we get 4-5Kwh out of a 5Kw solar array (I’ve been recording this).
We have a wood heater, so the electrical load on the house is minimal, even in winter. The panels are oriented for summer maximum, but orientation does not matter in the middle of cloudy weather.
A 12 Kw solar array should put out at least 8Kwh/d in even the worst weather (provided not covered by snow, and less than 50′ latitude). North of 50′ and the day length becomes the real problem in Winter.
If the electricity companies did not give such a huge credit for the benefit of solar generation, it would not be a problem. The cost of the grid goes up; the cost of producing other electricity goes down very little, because backup generation still needs to stay in operation and pay its workers.
The US Midwest can somewhat work around this because of their good interconnections with other states, and because most of their intermittent electricity is wind rather than solar. Europe has Norway to buffer some of its excess supply. Australia’s population is more spread out, making it more expensive to work around standard problems.
https://apnews.com/f955b6ff8b854246a95928da4174c156/Pentagon-says-Trump-ordered-Washington-military-parade
I have to wonder what kind of spectacle this may look like given that the USA has been engaged in some kind of military conflict for most of its existence and that we have a military budget nearly equal to the rest of the world combined.
Trump is behind this.
Trump’s main presidential goal is to immemorialize the grand life and saga of Donald Trump.
I would not be surprised to see Trump take a page out of Mao’s book and welcome Ms Teen America contestants to spend the night with him….
Somehow…. if that were to happen…. I would not find it inappropriate…. nor surprising…. just part of the insanity that accompanies the death spiral.
I can’t find a graph for this … but I understand that on a per capita basis the US consumes many times more of its share of global energy compared to any other country.
Think of it in terms of a pack of vicious dogs….
The US is the biggest, most vicious dog….. he gets most of the meat from kills…. he throws some scraps to other dogs who support him… he throws a few bones to the sickly weak dogs….
But there are a few other powerful violent dogs who are constantly having a go at him trying to take his meat…. who would tear his throat out if given the chance….
US must ALWAYS be on alert…. must ALWAYS be showing teeth…. and must ALWAYS be willing to fight to the death…. any sign of weakness and the other dogs will pounce on US try to kill him….
http://sfcitizen.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/dogs.jpg
It is not true that the US’s energy consumption per capita is the highest. According to World Bank data for the year 2014, Qatar is highest, with energy consumption of 18,562 kg of oil equivalent per capita. Iceland is second (making bitcoins and aluminum!) with 17,916 kg per capita. These are followed by Trinidad and Tobago, Curacao, Bahrain, Kuwait, Brunei, Canada, United Arab Emirates, and then the United States at 6,957. Saudi Arabia is almost tied with the US, at 6,937. Canada is about 12% higher than the US at 7,874.
Iceland is a pretty big outlier with their ability to use Geothermal in a way basically no one else can.
I agree. It also has a lot of cheap hydroelectric.
I may have the wrong measurement — perhaps it is total resources? But I am sure I have seen info that indicates that the US consumes far more of ?????? compared to the rest of the world.
The story is a widespread one. I think what was meant was, “Compared to most of European countries and Japan, the United States’ per capita energy consumption is quite a bit higher.” People tend to forget about Middle Eastern countries.
One version of the story was, “The US has __% of the world’s population and consumes __% of the world’s oil.”
Based on BP data for oil ex biofuels and UN data population for 2016, “The US has 4% of the world’s population and consumes 19% of the world’s oil.”
Back in 1970, the US had 6% of the world’s population, and consumed 31% of the world’s oil.
That would be why my google search failed me….
Qatar has a population of 2.6m, making a comparison with a nation of 315m irrelevant.
I think comparing the per capita use of the US with countries of over 50m in population would be a more accurate picture of the real situation.
The calculation for the world using the same amount of energy as the US on a per capita basis is just mind boggling. 7,200,000,000 X 6,957kg = 50,090,400,000,000 kg, or just over 50 Billion Tonnes of oil equivalent. On an energy basis, given 11.63Kwh/kg of oil equivalent, gives a world wide use of 581,500Twh energy.
Considering current world energy use is about 175,000Twh, the world cannot catch up to the US!!.
As we are reaching hard limits with the current world energy use of 175,000Twh, plus we have globalisation with more energy use being sent to the poorest countries (lowest wages), then we have a situation that can clearly not continue for very long.
The energy use of the US worked up to a world wide basis, really drives home the reality of crash/collapse dead ahead in a globalised, Just in time, complex world we have today.
Didi Taihuttu is loading a kids’ bike and a playpen into his car when he answers the phone. He has sold the stuff on Marktplaats, the Dutch eBay, for €40 (NZ$69). “Now we have some money to buy sandwiches,” he says.
The 39-year-old father of three was all over the news in recent months. He sold his spacious house in Venlo, in the Netherlands, invested everything in bitcoin, and now lives with his family in a holiday chalet on a campsite.
So far, he has doubled his money in just a few months. A single bitcoin is worth more than $US13,000 (NZ$19,000). But Taihuttu isn’t thinking about selling. He is in it for the long haul.
In 2020, he estimates that the price of a bitcoin will have jumped to at least US$100,000 (NZ$146,000). “And there are even analysts who think the bitcoin is going to a million,” he says. So Taihuttu continues to buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/99656109/father-of-three-sold-everything-for-bitcoin-and-hes-not-ready-to-cash-in
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
Bitcoin may well be worth a million dollars in 2020. The problem is that stupidity is priceless.
It may also cost $2 million to buy a sandwich. We don’t know how this all turns out.
A wheelbarrow filled with Bitcoin tokens … to buy a loaf of bread?
I very much doubt that
Crypto Crackdown: Bitcoin is a “Combination of Bubble, Ponzi Scheme, Environmental Disaster”
“If authorities do not act preemptively, cryptocurrencies could become more interconnected with the main financial system and become a threat to financial stability.”
The official crackdown on the entire cryptocurrency space got a new and broader framework from Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and former governor of the Bank of Mexico. In a lecture in Frankfurt on Tuesday, he let fly some real zingers interspersed with indications of what is to come. He clarified the main concern – that the crypto ecosystem, as it “piggybacks” on the financial system, transfers its risks to the financial system.
Here are some excerpts from his lecture that I think are very insightful views of how bank regulators will be looking at the crypto ecosystm:
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/07/crypto-crackdown-bitcoin-is-a-combination-of-bubble-ponzi-scheme-environmental-disaster/
Wall Street roars back, traders eye volatility ahead
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Shaken out of many months of calm, Wall Street braced for a higher level of volatility in the days ahead, after a roughly 2 percent rebound in U.S. stocks on Tuesday followed the biggest one-day selloff in more than six years.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-roars-back-traders-eye-volatility-ahead-idUSKBN1FQ1OZ
Someone or something was running the stops. Old game, sure isn’t fun when it happens, walked to my favorite pub(okay, it is just a bar) for a Glenlivet to celebrate the rebound. Tomorrow is a new day.
Wonder what Adam Smith would make of this Invisible Hand….
Property near vineyard… diesel powered wind mills in use to combat frosts at night…. Fast Eddy not like to be wakened by such contraptions … so asking the contractor about frequency….
And I quote:
‘last year was the first time in my 25 years that we have had to frost fight every month of the growing season (Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, feb, March, April)’
And Leo is building concrete eco villas on his island a few inches above sea level….
Now what was I saying about the Matrix and XXX XXXing…..
More frosts NOW than in the past 25 years!!!! Now that is just unbelievable… but that’s what he said — I have the email….
Meanwhile deadly tropical jelly fish are moving south in Australia.
Cherry picking is so much fun FE.
As the climate gets warmer, with DRYER times of the year, (lower relative humidity), we get and I would expect more frosts, and more severe ones.
From your description of the growing practices of the vineyards, it sounds to me like an area not suited to vines very well. The spraying is due to higher humidity, they seem to be just about all for fungal diseases, plus the frosts in the growing season = too cold an area!!
Vines like dry warm summer!! I don’t think you get that in NZ!!
We do grow a couple of tonnes of grapes here on my farm, no sprays, just water. Vines also grow on poor soils, fertilizer just promotes lush growth, high yield and poor quality wine. The best vineyards with the highest quality wines are usually on the poorest soils.
Just because you see something funny going on in NZ does not mean it is correct, nor applicable to the rest of the world.
Ya that makes sense… g…l….o bal… wa..r…m…ing …. results in colder weather ….
And….
A circle = a square
Up = down
Left = right
Black = white….
1 + 1 = 3
http://crazzfiles.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/1-doublespeak.jpg
Oh and btw – this is a very dry area with stark landscapes (perhaps it was – like Greenland – very lush at one point) —- and the contractor also told me that the year before they had only a few days where they had to deal with frosts….
Gerbil warning causes variability which cause hem line to go up and down which in turn causes the stock market to go up and down. It is all very reasonable no need for hysterics.
Oh right…. when Don Draper realized that the planet was not wa.rming … and in fact in many instances … record cold temperatures were being realized in many places….
He was forced to go back to the drawing board….. because some people would not doubt look at this tag line and say … hang on …. wa.rming is not freezing … so this is some sort of ho ax…..
Can’t have that….
So he called in Peggy and the rest of the crew and said — this ggg wwww thing doesn’t work…. I need 20 tags by Monday morning —- I’ll be off getting smashed and nailing floozies… meanwhile you guys are gonna work night and day …. have a great weekend!!!
Then on Monday …. Don wanders in around noon …. has a smash of whiskey with Roger…. then the team rolls in and presents all sorts of rubbish ….
Don pauses for thought … and in his booze addled state has a great epiphany….
The new tag line is Kkkkklimate CCCChange…. (with a K so that the FW censors can be overcome).
Peggy says — yes that is perfect Don — the steeewpid humans will buy that (for a dollar) …. if Toronto gets covered (again) with a glacier…. that’s no problem — if the Australian desert wipes out Sydney….. that’s no problem …..
Some places get warm – some get cold — that’s KKK CCC!!!!
Absolute Genius!!!
http://del.h-cdn.co/assets/15/35/1440535901-giphy-3.gif
The actual current records of heat related outnumber cool related ones by about 3:1. Back in the 80’s it was about 1.09:1, so the ratio of heat to cool records is going up.
However never let facts get in the way of your beliefs.
Farming ….
Looking at this property in Otago…. lots of vineyards in the area so checking on the chemical issues….
I’ve obtained a spray diary — if the sprays are not applied — no grapes.
I am told by a friend who runs one of the big vineyards near Nelson that grapes are sprayed far less than most other fruit because they are not concerned with the presentation of the grapes since they will be crushed anyway….
So guess what happens to all those orchards and all those commercial vegetable gardens when BAU goes down …. the crops will be ruined by fungi … diseases… pests… and of course the hungry hordes who will be quite happy to chomp a diseased rotting apple….
And then there will be nothing … because there will be no urea to be applied to the soil to ensure a next season crop.
Here’s the list of what goes on the grapes – the same sh it … just larger volumes…. would go onto all crops:
Chemical
Lime Sulphur (Optional)
Sulphur
Protector
Mag Sulphate
Mancozeb (Diathane)
Sulphur
Protector
Terrasorb / Megafol
Sulphur
Boost-it
Mancozeb (Diathane)
Boronia Mo
Seasol
Sulphur
Protector
Boronia Mo
Budbuilder
Sulphur
Fixa Ca
Seasol
Luna
Fixa Ca
Apex
Prodigy (optional based on LBAM)
Sulphur
Seasol
Mag Sulphate
Switch
Tolendo
Fixa Ca
Bio bit (BT) if LBAM high
Sulphur
Protector
Seasol
Finish it (Potassium)- on late ripening blocks
Sulphur
Chlorithanil (Bravo/Balear) If Wet Option
Seasol
Finish It (Potassium)
No wonder my apple trees did so poorly, only sprayed for something or other to keep the bugs off I guess. Own a farm, don’t live on it, don’t know a damn thing about farming but it seemed like a good idea at the time. Have fun.
There are disease resistant varieties of many perennial fruits, like apple, grape, pear and so on, which resist fungal, bacterial, and viral diseases. Some require only minimal spraying with a non-toxic clay powder to provide a barrier against insects.
What I really like are non-commercial native fruits which have evolved over eons of time to have resistance to pests (animal and insect) and diseases.
I would be willing to bet that the non-commercial varieties have some characteristic that commercial growers didn’t like: less productive, smaller fruit (that takes more effort to pick), short “shelf-life,” doesn’t taste as sweet. Also, insects, fungi, and bacteria are always evolving, to find new food sources. Because of this, I expect that a fruit or nut tree that is immune to diseases now, may not be in 10 or 20 years.
At most, these varieties are a partial solution.
I assumed grayfox meant wild fruit? Those will survive thousands of years.
As you say they give less harvest per acre, tastes more bitter, less sweet and has more fiber.
But harvest per acre doesn’t matter if you don’t have competition and doesn’t tend for the trees/bushes.
+++++++
Correct on the non-commercial variety having characteristics that keep them out of commerce. Still, an edible fruit is an edible fruit.
Also correct about the the pests evolving, but so are the plants – and in both cases, the process is normally slow. More correct to say co-evolution – like a constant battle. What is probably more of a concern and upsetting the apple cart is introduction of exotic species/pests (and a to some extent a changing climate) that upset a previously established delicate balance.
Not offering any solution/salvation here – just some observations and opinion.
The co-evolution helps the new apple tree, or the new walnut tree, not the one you have planted that has been growing for 20 years on your farm. The speed of evolution is much faster for very small organisms, like viruses and fungi.
About all a farmer can do is plant a diverse group of trees and other crops, and hope that only a few will be affected by near-term mutations.
Certainly, farming is fraught with difficulties, especially when using monoculture. I don’t have a farm. I do a little gardening. Nature is the best grower, though.
Why is it … that the stuff you don’t eat… is always the easiest to grow….
I would be very good at growing a Weed Garden….
“The co-evolution helps the new apple tree, or the new walnut tree, not the one you have planted that has been growing for 20 years on your farm. The speed of evolution is much faster for very small organisms, like viruses and fungi.”
Sorry for not being clear. When I was talking about “pests evolving” and “non-commercial varieties” I should have said wild fruiting plant species (not domestic cultivated trees like apple, walnut etc.) and their long battle with pests and diseases. For example, common pawpaw has evolved over millions of years to incorporate unpalatable, bitter alkaloids into the stems, leaves and fruit to ward off would-be browsers/pests like deer. Sometimes the wild plant is devastated by a new exotic disease like the American Chestnut was.
Why is it … that the stuff you don’t eat… is always the easiest to grow….
Basically because the stuff you like to eat is the same stuff that the birds, bugs and fungi like to eat.
But you’d be amazed how easy it is to grow herbicide/insecticide-free fruit in places where they aren’t bothered by nature’s little hordes. I can grow apples or grapes or walnuts here but only if I use chemical warfare. But I can grow citrus fruit with no spraying and get a certain amount even with no fertilizer, as well as permissions, chestnuts, loquats, and even the humble kiwi fruit. That last one is a native of NZ that has no natural enemies or specialized feeders in this part of the world and even the birds are not too fond of it. Nor am I, come to think of it.
Are they resistant to marauding hordes?
Alice Freidemann made the point that we still lose 30% of crops despite all the spraying: bigger volumes, same losses as ever, but the sheer quantity ensures abundance.
We take a great deal for granted in terms of food…
We make assumptions as we drive past vast fields of grain … massive orchards… vegetable patches… that there will be enough to eat post BAU… look at all the abundance!
However….
Even if the soils were not basically ‘sponges that soak up petro chemical fertilizers and hold plants upright’ (that’s a direct quote from the organic farmer who consults to the NZ govt) …. we’d be royally screwed…. because without the poisons to kill the bugs and wipe out the various diseases…. we’d produce a small fraction of the food we are producing today….
We have signed a death warrant for our species…. when we embraced the Green Revolution….
And we applied the coup de grace …. when that first load of spent fuel was lowered into a pond….
Bravo Mankind!!! (oh sorry Justin — am I breaking the law? — are you going to jail me for not using the gender friendly Peoplekind???? — where do you stand on the word w.anker???)
The era of trillion-dollar budget deficits is making a comeback
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-era-of-trillion-dollar-budget-deficits-is-making-a-comeback
It definitely had a good run under Obama.
Mission Accomplished!
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/05/31/20160301_obama_1.jpg
Discussion the same LibTARD….
Obama has done an outstanding job with the economy — lots of jobs — etc etc etc…
But isn’t that like saying the economy was mostly awesome under that Bush guy? It was absolutely roaring along until the last few months of his tenure….
Oh – no — you can’t compare.
Ya but hasn’t Obama done the exact same things as Bush to keep the economy moving forward… massive stimulus… massive debt etc etc etc….
Hey did you ever consider that since their economic and foreign policies are pretty much the same — the someone else is calling the shots.
Oh no – POTUS is the most powerful man on earth
All F789ing Retards. Every last one
So what are the central banks going to do now after all their money printing has inflated all asset bubbles and raised the debt to astronomical levels? Are they going to lower the rates to zero again, print trillions more, inflate the bubbles even more and raise the debt beyond dangerous levels…or are they just going sit down and watch their creation burn down to the ground?
“Are they going to lower the rates to zero again, print trillions more, inflate the bubbles even more and raise the debt beyond dangerous levels…”
yes, of course.
You don’t know if that’s going to work this time. In fact it is almost certain it won’t work as well as it did before, since the real economy of energy extraction and trust in future energy extraction has deflated.
“Are they going to lower the rates to zero again, print trillions more, inflate the bubbles even more and raise the debt beyond dangerous levels…”
“yes, of course.”
It’s really sick. It, that thing we call the world economy needs the juice. It needs to fire on high (ELO band). It doesn’t mosey along on its own now (via cheap oil), it needs copious infusions of bets on the future paying it back if it jolts itself into hyper mode, but of course it won’t. I wonder how far off the crescendo from which we are no longer able to surpass occurs to initiate the slide down. It can only be levitated for so long.
Astronomical debt levels? It’s just 12+ digits. Plenty of space left on your wide screen computer monitor. Just insert a number here or there if we want BAU to continue.
Trivia:
A 1955 movie “Conquest of Space” might be an interesting watch for some, available on Amazon cheap. Elon Musk perhaps watched it.
In my youth(1960’s) I read Fred Hoyle, he as I recall had the idea that life on earth was a one shot affair, either we got it right or the resources would be exhausted. Reading his biography, no one at Cambridge seemed to want to listen to him either.
Fred, a cosmologist had some strange ideas which leads to other strange ideas, do we actually live in a matrix? That might make dark matter easy to explain as it comes from the computer running the program. Makes as much sense as some of the other hair brained ideas.
So, how then shall we live?
Computer games aren’t sufficiently beautiful. What we live in is beautiful. But we clearly can’t be living in a physical universe. That would make no logical sense.
What put you under the delusion that the world should “make logical sense”?
I would say that there’s nothing illogical about the universe…
it evolves and things like stars and planets and species come into existence…
and then it evolves some more and stars and planets and species go out of existence…
the universe doesn’t make sense only if some sort of meaningful position for humans is presumed…
when seeing clearly that the human species just “is” for a while until we go extinct, then there is nothing illogical.
Humans on Earth are less than nothing. Earth itself is like a speck of sand in an ocean of so many other planets, you could spend an eternity counting and not even get off that beach. And that’s just the mathematical view. What happens on an individual scale is exactly as pointless as somebody’s Facebook post about lunch. Once you realize the depth of the scale, you start to realize that nothing here will ever be of any consequence.
What happens to us is important to us. I suppose what happens to a moth is important to that moth.
There is a huge amount of never-ending power that seems to be operating the universe. That is how we can have a permanently “open” system. Some believe that the power behind this system is all-knowing and all-wise, and in fact knows and cares for individual humans. In this way, while it may appear that humans are nothing, they really are not. They, their brains, and the societies they create, are the culmination of complexity in the universe according to Eric Choisson.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/energy-rate-density-with-notes.png
Gail, I didn’t literally mean nothing. I meant that on the scale we’re minuscule. You’re spot on with the individual experience perspective. Our existence is exactly what we make of it. And I do not believe it’s a coincidence that we’re all here watching this giant global civilization fall.
“Some believe that the power behind this system is all-knowing and all-wise, and in fact knows and cares for individual humans. In this way, while it may appear that humans are nothing, they really are not. ”
And the post by Aravind. says something about this strange state of affairs. “The universe is a figment of its own imagination.” 🙂 To which I’ll add the old saw: “Life is what you make it.”
What happens on an individual scale is exactly as pointless as somebody’s Facebook post about lunch.
If it consists of merely the sum of its myriad parts, then the entire Universe is exactly as pointless as somebody’s Facebook post about lunch.
This little insight might be termed “the concerned atheist dilemma”. What does the concerned atheist have to be concerned about when everything is trivia?
I’m not an atheist and I was merely using less than nothing as a size reference. Individual perspective and experience continue to go on. Once returned to the sum of the parts, it’s actually quite the opposite. That’s when you feel truly complete. The idea that things are pointless is an illusion that we are separate.
Somebody during the early days of the web used to sign off “The universe is a figment of its own imagination”. Always feel like bursting out laughing when I think about that!
“So, how then shall we live?”
I don’t see where it matters at all if “the Universe” is a physical reality or a matrix or the unintended result of a phart from the behind of “God”…
I think that I have no choice but to live by what appears to be real…
and it appears certain that humans are one species out of billions or even trillions and we are quite temporary and not special in this Reality which is totally indifferent to us…
so I say we should burn all the FF we want to, because it’s there.
“I think that I have no choice but to live by what appears to be real…”
Choice or no choice, I do “live by what appears to be real…”
Seeing that living beings try to avoid death–there are exceptions as with every norms–and that FF are among the many causes thereof, I try to distinguish between when it will take life and when it will do the opposite. Simply burning it because it exists…why?
norm
That is the way I live
Real is not always pretty
“I think that I have no choice but to live by what appears to be real…”
You do have a choice (but not really) in that “what appears to be real” can in fact be an illusion you have created. Like the illusion of nihilism or an “indifferent” Reality, which is derived from disappointment with other illusions – replacing nothing with even more nothing!
Like the illusion (or ho ax) known as XXX XXXXing
Fast Eddy is a case in point. When positive illusions (techno-cornucopia) disappoint, the human mind/heart seeks pleasure in their negation.
Radiation Will Tear Elon Musk’s Rocket Car to Bits in a Year
https://www.livescience.com/61680-will-spacex-roadster-survive-in-space.html?utm_source=notification
We are back to more US government shutdown threats. The postponement shutdown runs out this week. This article says “The next government-shutdown deadline is 3 days away — and it doesn’t look promising.” http://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-part-2-daca-spending-caps-2018-2
The government will shutdown after Thursday if no new spending plan is approved.
Today, Trump is reported to be saying that he would love to see a shut down if they cannot agree on border security measures (funding for a wall). https://www.businessinsider.sg/government-shutdown-2018-trump-wall-immigration-congress-2018-2/
“Trump is reported to be saying that he would love to see a shut down if they cannot agree on border security measures.”
Yeah, he actually seemed irritated when the recent brief shutdown ended so quickly. He may want to have something like that to act as a distraction to the Russia collusion investigation, and Schumer may give it to him because he came under fire for folding so fast to end that brief shutdown, having gotten nothing for the Dem House votes.
Not sure what the govt. shutdown means to the country though, as it just means lots of govt. workers go home. They still get paid (later), they just don’t do anything until an agreement is reached. Keep in mind this date for the shut down is occurring much earlier than originally expected because of the massive new tax cuts for corporations. On the news last night it was reported that Exxon says they will pocket 6 billion just this year as a result of new tax code, via corporations going from 35 to 21% taxes. I’ll post a link if I find it on Exxon’s tax savings.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/02/investing/exxon-earnings-tax-law-oil/index.html
That’s the link to the article on Exxon’s massive tax relief (at the expense of much higher deficits).
If it delays the issues FE refers to for one day, do you have an issue with that? Predicaments are very irritating.
I don’t see why oil companies should be paying any taxes… given how we basically need them to remain in business – or we die
Taxes are a very major expense for oil companies. Cutting taxes helps lower the price of oil at which extraction can be done profitably. This is a way of making (1) The price oil producers need for profitability match (2) The price consumers can afford, or at least bringing the two amounts closer together. For this reason, the tax cut makes sense for all kinds of energy producers: food, oil, natural gas, coal, electricity. It also makes metals lower priced, to better compete in world markets.
Analyses such as EROEI and Life Cycle Analysis tend to ignore taxes, among other things. This is one reason they produce strange results.
“Cutting taxes helps lower the price of oil at which extraction can be done profitably.”
It’s basically a subsidy, which they receive already. The tax cut won’t help if losses are merely reduced, or if the government loses money it can use to maintain other aspects of the economy including debt servicing. A tax cut ONLY for oil companies would make sense. Otherwise, what is the point?
Actually, there is a point to a broader tax cut for several reasons:
(1) Buyers of energy products need a tax cut, so that they can afford to buy the energy products. These include humans who are ultimate customers, and businesses that are intermediate customers. This provides symmetry in the benefit–both consumers and producers are better off (at least until all of the debt works its way through the system).
(2) It is not just oil producers who are having problems. It is food (a type of energy) producers who are having a problems. It is coal producers, and natural gas producers, and uranium producers. It is steel and other metal producers that cannot compete in the world market place. They all need tax cuts, to make their products more affordable.
(3) The US operates in a world market. A race to the bottom on corporate tax rates has been going on for a long time. The US is “behind the curve.” (Its prior rate was 30%, plus various state and local taxes; its new rate is 21% plus various state and local taxes.) It cannot compete in a globalized market with higher tax rates. China’s tax rate is 25%. Canada’s is 15%; Ireland’s is 12.5%. The Caymen Islands’ is 0%.
(4) Before the change in the corporate tax rate, energy companies and utility companies were at a disadvantage relative to other companies, because they could not conveniently move their “domicile” to another country, to cut taxes. This had been going on for a long time. This resulted in a great deal of “leakage” to the tax system. Corporate income taxes have not been providing a very large share of total revenue for a long time.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/source-of-government-receipts.png
(5) The view that energy companies are getting a subsidy is mostly false. They tend to be taxed at a rate that is pretty much “whatever the market will bear.” There are a variety of taxes oil companies pay. It is well known that Alaska uses taxes on oil to eliminate the need for a state income taxes or sales taxes. In fact, at one point, it issued rebate checks to each citizen. Taxes for companies operating in North Dakota were higher than all operating expenses combined, based on figures I saw a few years ago. (When companies leave taxes out, this makes a material difference.) This is a map of tax rates on oil companies around the world. It reflects “what the market will bear.”
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/pe_worldmapunfold1-comp.jpg
“Buyers of energy products need a tax cut, so that they can afford to buy the energy products.”
I don’t think the buyers will be saving much due to Trump’s tax cut. I could be wrong of course, since I’m not affected by Trump’s tax cut so only cursorily informed about it.
As for producers, unless the money saved from a tax cut corresponds *directly* with the cost of extracting the actual energy (oil, food etc.) then there is no point. There has to be an actual “transfer” of resources and energy away from mere wastage (the majority of economic activity) and towards the *extraction* of energy and resources. The only way to do that through a tax cut is to explicitly cut taxes for energy producers, and probably also increasing them for everyone else.
I agree with Steve Ludlum that the tax cut is basically a stage in defaulting, or withdrawal of promises made during happier times. I don’t think it will lead to any meaningful increase consumption for the majority of US citizens.
jupiviv,
The new taxes seem to represent an amazingly large cut for almost every consumer. One analysis says that 80% of taxpayers will see a tax cut; only 5% will see a tax hike of more than $10. Democrats say the average tax cut will be $1,600. Republicans say the tax cut amounts to more than $2,000 for a median income family of four. It is only after several years that rates supposedly will be raised again, and this benefit goes away. It is hard to find anyone who is hurt by the change in taxes. The tax cut could be considered an experiment with something close to guaranteed income.
I don’t agree with your theory regarding a need to transfer of resources away from wastage and toward extraction. What needs to happen is for the oil price to rise, without too many US citizens being hurt by the price rise. We are not dealing with a zero-sum game. The game depends on how high it is possible to get the price of oil to rise, without causing a massive recession. The higher the price, the more oil that can be extracted. This is why it is not a zero-sum game. If the price falls too low, we end up with a lot of collapsing oil companies and oil exporting nations, and we are truly in bad shape.
The tax cut is basically a way of trying to make US companies more competitive with overseas companies, and give citizens more money to spend. Of course, it pushes the dollar down lower. As a result, the price of oil may rise. I am afraid interest rates will go through the roof, and there will be a major crash. We are off in totally new territory.
Steve Ludlum may be right about it being a step in defaulting. We will see how far the dollar drops, relative to other currencies.
Since Exxon is in such dire financial straits…
https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/
I have set up a site that allows people to donate to help Exxon continue pumping oil
http://www.saveexxonsaveyourself.com
(I keep 10% of all donations)
There is an outfit called “Macroaxis” that calculates a probability regarding whether a firm will become financially distressed in the next two years. For ExxonMobil, it puts the probability at 10%.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/XOM–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Chevron comes out at 27% on this basis.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CVX–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Chesapeake Energy comes out at 77% on this basis.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CHK–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Wells Fargo comes out at 51% on this basis.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/WFC–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Tesla comes out at 19% on this basis.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/TSLA–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
Let’s all go buy Tesla shares! I am doubtful that a computerized calculation that seems to be applied to all industries can do a very good job of determining future financial distress. But it does point out that there may be potential problems ahead, even in what look like big, well-capitalized companies.
I agree with SRSroccoReport, however. Exxon Mobil and other oil companies have major expenses that do not go into the tax calculations. They have to pay pensions to shareholders. (Stocks of oil companies tend to be used in pension plans.) They have to invest in new fields. They are getting squeezed, badly.
Funny how the models work — until they don’t.
This comes to mind
http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-only-when-the-tide-goes-out-do-you-discover-who-s-been-swimming-naked-warren-buffett-26795.jpg
The headline now (Wednesday, Feb 7. afternoon) is Congressional Leaders Say They Agree on a Budget Deal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/pelosi-wants-ryan-to-pledge-vote-on-dreamers-as-condition-for-budget-deal-1518019752
The article says the bill should pass the house; less clear with respect to the senate. Legislation needs at least 60 votes out of 98 or 99; will require quite a few Democrat votes to pass.
Charles C Mann has a new book out:
https://www.amazon.com/Wizard-Prophet-Remarkable-Scientists-Tomorrows/dp/0307961699#productDescription_secondary_view_div_1517949941223
Quit interesting this interview which touches on many different questions, perhaps to many..https://overcast.fm/+EdFw4_4Gc
This is a review from Amazon:
In my opinion, Norman Borlaug is, as much as anyone, responsible for enabling the huge increase in population that we have seen over the years. His work has helped push us into a corner with respect to resource limits.
I doubt that William Vogt understood the nature of the limits we are reaching. We reach those limits, just as surely with constant population as with rising population. We are constantly removing finite resources and we are also making the system more complex. A rising population does get to limits faster, admittedly, so slowing its growth does have merit. We have not had much success with limiting world population, however. It seems to go against the physics of the situation; a dissipative structure is “programmed” to dissipate as much energy as possible.
A very wise person once told me, “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” Perhaps it is so with Norman Borlaug.
borlaug is in the top list of culprits
but then so is Jenner, (smallpox)
Hillemann (MMR)
(I could go on)
What about developments for pumping fresh water in and human waste out?
All equally responsible for people production
Why not go much further back in time to ancient culprits of cultural evolution? The first person (propably a woman) who «invented» agriculture? To our ancestors who learned how to control fire and made us evolve metabolisme which depended on the use of surplus energy for cooking and frying food? This must be the Original sin?
Perhaps the myth of Prometheus tries to tell us something:
In Greek mythology, Prometheus (/prəˈmiːθiːəs/; Greek: Προμηθεύς, pronounced [promɛːtʰeús], meaning “forethought”)[1] is a Titan, culture hero, and trickster figure who is credited with the creation of man from clay, and who defies the gods by stealing fire and giving it to humanity, an act that enabled progress and civilization. Prometheus is known for his intelligence and as a champion of mankind.
The punishment of Prometheus as a consequence of the theft is a major theme of his mythology, and is a popular subject of both ancient and modern art. Zeus, king of the Olympian gods, sentenced the Titan to eternal torment for his transgression. The immortal Prometheus was bound to a rock, where each day an eagle, the emblem of Zeus, was sent to feed on his liver, which would then grow back overnight to be eaten again the next day. (In ancient Greece, the liver was thought to be the seat of human emotions.)[3] In some stories, Prometheus is freed at last by the hero Heracles (Hercules).
In the Western classical tradition, Prometheus became a figure who represented human striving, particularly the quest for scientific knowledge, and the risk of overreaching or unintended consequences. In particular, he was regarded in the Romantic era as embodying the lone genius whose efforts to improve human existence could also result in tragedy: Mary Shelley, for instance, gave The Modern Prometheus as the subtitle to her novel Frankenstein (1818).
Sure, this way of looking at things means that one sign out from and leave every political discussion.
you are more or less correct
ive put forward the hypothesis before—that the earth accumulated an excess of stored carbons, and evolved humankind to burn it
when that task is complete, we will be surplus to requirement
We have not discussed Scott Nearing in awhile….
I like to think of him as the symbol of those first farmers who put up a fence and dropped their seeds into the soil…. and lit the fuse….
Death to All Farmers.
I am sure that was how the Hunter Gatherers felt….. the original Luddites?
So I can’t see the wisdom of a) prohibiting abortion, and b) continuing to build single family houses and roads going to them.
It seems like we should have enough single family homes to last a very long time. As the population ages, but doesn’t grow very much, we can put people in single family homes in a more dense way, perhaps with grandparents living with children, or young adult groups together. If we need more housing, apartments seem like the likely choice. I think Dmitry Orlov once suggested making unused mall space into apartments.
My paternal grandmother lived with us most of her natural life which ended a bit over 100. This was from the time her husband was killed working on the railroad for a friend over part of a holiday, my dad was 14 and they somehow kept the house. It worked, it was not easy, but my parents always had a babysitter, grandma washed her clothes on different days than my mom to avoid conflicts; I have only good memories of that part of my childhood. I believe she moved to assisted living at about 96 years of age or so.This period included one depression, one world war, one Korean war(coal was hard to get), and one Vietnam war. For four years my father was mainly in the Pacific swimming onto beaches to welcome the Marines who came later. He came home to home, lucky man. It has been done, it can be done.
Another example: Last Sunday at church, the 8:30am service (which I don’t attend) sang happy birthday to a woman who was celebrating her 100th birthday. She lives with one of her children in a single family home. Two of her granddaughters are married with children and attend the church as well. I see the 100-year old woman and her three-wheeled walker leave the church almost every Sunday, shortly after I arrive.
Norman Borlaug is a hero.
If not for him …. we would have collapsed decades ago — everyone in the industrial world would have died — I would not have been born — and we’d have a few pockets of hunter gatherers on the planet now….
But because of his inventions — we were bought enough time to get the spent fuel ponds in place — and we ruined our soils — so now extinction is virtually a lock…
And that is also a good thing … because we are worse than the worst vermin … we are a toxic species… and we need to be eliminated.
So thank you twice Norman — for making Fast Eddy possible — and for killing us off.
3 cheers for Norman
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/__UkhXWSrQQY/TP2Zt5kukzI/AAAAAAAAAQg/F6benCD5dd0/s320/800088.gif
This is terribly negative, maybe even accurate, but it cannot be good for one’s mental health.
I sense you are correct about our soil, I see what is used on my farm and it seems harsh. The alternative is a farm like my grandfather had, very hard, boring work; it killed him at 88 or so and my material grandmother at 99. It was a nice, clean farm; outhouse into the early sixties. Two of the nine children died very young, the other seven went into late eighties or into their 11th decade. Few chemicals, and all that damn hard work.
Once you get to 5 it’s not so bad… I pretty much skipped the first 4…. however I would add a 6th stage…. the closest word I can think of to describe it is cafarde…. a sort of listless pointless existence but not the result of living in intense tropical heat and humidity … rather brought on by the knowledge that there is no long term future… no goals… no purpose…. (other than to Burn More Coal)
http://www.renkinlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/5stages.jpg
Well there is one bit of purpose left…. to mock and abuse DelusiSTANIS…. thank heaven … for stewpid DelusiSTANIS…. for without them what would Fast Eddy do….
There are other views available as well. I suppose if you have decided a god is not possible, then you are left with a very depressing situation.
If everything we have today is a miracle, thanks to a growing supply of cheap extract energy and the amazing self-organizing way the universe has been put together. We can marvel in what we have today, and how Norman Borlaug was one of the people who was able to “kick the can down the road a bit.” He used energy to add complexity to the system.
Perhaps William Vogt was able to kick the can down the road a bit a bit too. His problem was that he was trying to repeal the laws of physics; this cannot be very successful. Human population must grow or collapse; entropy means ever-more pollution. Debt (and its twin, shares of stock) are, in a sense, like pollution. They are a form of entropy. They must grow, or the system collapses.
It is wondrous to see how the whole self-organized system works together. Even the fact that our governments have managed to remove from public view what had been known for a very long time is part of this self-organized system. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/02/speech-from-1957-predicting-peak-oil/
-The “Peak Oil” movement helped hide what was really happening, because it sent people on an ever-lasting quest for high-prices as a sign of limits, even though these cause recession, so they cannot last.
-EROEI analyses gave false positives on what energy solutions would work, because it did not recognize that complexity is one form that energy consumption takes. Not charging for complexity (bigger governments, more debt with interest, more land leases, even more humans) as a form energy usage takes gives the impression that energy forms that are driven by complexity are solutions to our need for ever-more fossil fuel energy.
-Many people have followed William Vogt’s belief that we can somehow eliminate pollution, without putting an end to life of humans on earth. Recycling becomes an end in itself, without any thought to what its true cost is.
We don’t really know how this whole situation will end. We can imagine the worst, but this is not necessarily the way it will end. Self-organized systems behave very strangely. If there is a god intervening, it could be doubly strange.
We humans are only where we are today though an amazing series of “coincidences.” Perhaps there are more coincidences awaiting. Envisioning the worst possible outcome does nothing at all for our mental health. We cannot dwell on these thoughts. Please try to find a better outlet for your energy.
I wouldn’t use the term depressing….. boring is more appropriate…. perhaps pointless…. without meaning…. tinged with a touch of dread…. with a huge dose of misanthropy as a product of having to associate with nearly 7.8 billion stewpid delusional humans…. not all humans of course… some of them can be quite kind… and amusing … very much like my dog who is moaning and pawing me because she wants to go out to take a morning p. iss.
How about starting a new religion? We all need something to believe. And we know we can’t all believe the same thing. There have to be many religions. That is why self-organization provides many different religions, some of which use the same religious writings.
The new religion might be the religion of a literal “higher power” who works through the miracle of self-organization. According to physicist Eric Choisson, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.04981.pdf , the system is working in the direction of creating ever-greater complexity and higher energy-density. Human society is the most energy-dense form created to date.
This literal higher power enables natural selection to work its miracles through evolution. Natural selection works with respect to ideas, but not in the way we would expect. Actions of well-meaning people turn out in ways totally different from what they expected. While we humans have thought we were working to protect the earth and its current biosystems, that cannot work very long. So far, the whole process has enabled the existence on humans on earth for a very long time. We cannot how the process will turn out. The coincidences to date are too bizarre to believe.
My writing this blog is part of the coincidences. I didn’t set out with a plan to do this. Circumstances enabled it, however, and the miracles of self-organization helped the group of us figure out more about what is happening than any of us working alone could have.
The formation of the earth seems to have required a huge number of coincidences as well. I suggest the book, Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_(book) It is available from Amazon, and there seems to be a free PDF of it.
I like it!
I can see Fast Eddy as a smooth talking evangelist…. M Fast could be my ‘Tammy Baker’…. I’ll check with her later to see if she might be on for a bo ob job and some big hair….
Maybe I can get a grant from the NZ gov’t to build a cathedral…. oh wait … if I ask Justin for money like that lady did in that town hall meeting for her religious movement…. I am sure he would be very happy to donate $50m of tax payer funds to my cause ….
And every Big Time evangelist needs to travel efficiently to meet his global flock and spread the message effectively — so funds must be set aside for private jet time —- just like Elon, Leo and Al Gore….
no doubt you will expect first pick of any virgin sacrifices on offer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Private_Life_of_Chairman_Mao
I recall the good doctor saying that when Mao traveled… parents of young beautiful girls felt it was a great honour to have their daughters chosen by the Great Evangelist… to be bedded…. and the girls apparently were good with this arrangement…
And this was an Evangelist with green mold growing on his teeth … .
I’ve already got a step up on him… I am dental hygiene obsessive…
If played right … this could work out very well… very well indeed….
as i recall—dracula was also a dental hygiene obsessive
merely an observation of course—nothing more
I have partial to red wine …. some symbolism there?
I believe in tap water, the grid and antibiotics. I worship my fridge.
I knee in front of it daily and thank it for its gifts.
“We cannot how the process will turn out. The coincidences to date are too bizarre to believe.”
This is why I now believe in the old Anglo-Saxon concept of Wyrd.
“There have to be many religions. That is why self-organization provides many different religions, some of which use the same religious writings.”
Belief in (understanding of) a self organizing system is the new religion. All the individual religions are like sects of this one religion, as is atheism as well. The mantra of the self organization system is, as Gail might be saying, is that energy distribution and use trumps ideology?
I am only a few chapters into this … but already there are some very good insights into religion etc…
https://www.audible.com/pd/History/The-Origins-of-Political-Order-From-Prehuman-Times-to-the-French-Revolution-Audiobook/B006P482NC
My profession is fisheries management with my initial career beginning in aquaculture. When I was first entering the profession (late 80’s / early 90’s) aquaculture was a growing “industry” in the US. I use the term industry in the purest sense of the word. I was a believer and thought I would help change the world. I quickly learned growing fish on an industrial scale requires pollution, waste, huge amounts of energy, and cheap labor.
I am in the process of moving and found several of my field pocket notebooks (the joys of being in my early 20’s). On a 267 acre catfish farm in 1993 I went through nearly 1300 tons of feed and 8000 gallons of diesel fuel. My notes does not capture the electricity (and we used alot) and regular gasoline for trucks. I harvested over 1 million pounds of fish that year. Our water source was well water (267 water acres at a 4′ average depth). Constantly lowering ponds and refilling for harvesting and water quality purposes.
Main customers and buyers of the corporation’s fish (Hormel) was Shoney’s restaurants and the Louisiana prison system. The farm I managed was leased and the owner was Progressive Insurance. The subsidary I worked for was Farm Fresh Catfish Co. (fined into bankruptcy for collusion / aka price fixing – that put dozens of independent farmers out of business).
Good Times.
That seems to be sort of the way it works in all industries. High energy use businesses succeed. Smaller, lower energy use businesses are driven into bankruptcy. If human labor can be eliminated using energy supplies, this helps bring costs down. Eventually, there are no buyers for the output of the system.
Interesting. I wonder how it is with salmon farming. Also if farmed fish is close to as healthy as wild fish, not only antibiotics, but also quality of food and “exercise”.
>also if farmed fish is close to as healthy as wild fish
It isn’t. The omega 6 to 3 ratios are way off and it’s missing a bunch of other nutrients it would have from a wild diet.
Icahn calls U.S. stock nosedive ‘rumblings of an earthquake’: CNBC
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-icahn/icahn-calls-u-s-stock-nosedive-rumblings-of-an-earthquake-cnbc-idUSKBN1FQ2OD?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29
If the US economy truly cannot handle a stock market collapse then, it won’t be allowed to happen. The PPT will step in. I truly believe the whole of what we consider the global stock markets are rigged and not an actual indicator of global economic health.
Let us see Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock market index back to 1949:
http://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data
The growth stopped in 1990… and since then on the same level. How is it possible that it did not collapse when the Japanese asset price bubble collapsed in 1991 and 1992? And the dot.com bubble collapsed in 2001. And no movement down in 2008?
There is still a lot they have to learn from Japan…
The peak in the stock market seems to be related to the big housing bubble Japan had. I suppose people borrowed against their housing equity, and ran up stock prices.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/japan-residential-urban-land-price-index-graph.gif
According to the article this is from
https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/japan/Price-History-Archive/House-price-falls-in-Japan-accelerate-755
Japan’s manufacturing and energy consumption per capita did not turn down until later. Japan’s manufacturing was reported to have peaked (UN data) in 1995. Government debt seems to have turned up somewhere after manufacturing peaked, to keep employment up.
https://assets2.ello.co/uploads/asset/attachment/2332057/ello-optimized-10d09919.gif
A massive effort to keep the DOW positive.
Seems a struggle. Not a good sign.
When you own the printing press and you can print unlimited amounts of cash — and buy up the market….
The struggle is akin to an elephant fighting with a cricket.
The Fed can turn the market by just issuing one statement – Don’t Fight the Fed
Article in today’s New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/06/opinion/utility-embracing-wind-solar.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
Energy to cheap to meter no doubt.
That whole article is rubbish. I can’t find one honest sentence in the whole thing. It is all very misleading. Cheap in the case of wind and solar is cheap because it is worthless. Not cheap as in cheap energy.
https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/58752711/one-does-not-simply-apply-sanity-and-logic-here.jpg
http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-a-person-must-have-a-certain-amount-of-intelligent-ignorance-to-get-anywhere-charles-kettering-101265.jpg
That Sean Bean one is actually funny! Well done Uncle Eddy.
Warren Buffett Is Building Lots Of New Wind Turbines With Your Tax Dollars
MidAmerican Energy, a Berkshire Hathaway-owned utility, announced it was going to build 2,000 megawatts worth of new wind turbines in an effort to get 85 percent of its energy from wind power in the coming years.
How are they able to do it?
With generous green energy tax credits recently extended by Republican leadership in Congress. MidAmerican says it plans to use the Wind Production Tax Credit, or PTC, to make its big bet on wind financially feasible.
“Because of the tax credits and our ability to deliver these projects at a low cost, we’re setting up our customers for a low-carbon future,” MidAmerican CEO Bill Fehrman told The Wall Street Journal Thursday.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/15/warren-buffett-is-building-lots-of-new-wind-turbines-with-your-tax-dollars/
No … this is not copied from The Onion …. this is real.
And most people believe that wind and solar are cheap – EVEN if you explain to them that that is is only ‘cheap’ because it is massively subsidized (just like most people believe in XX XXXing…. and that solar and wind will solve that fake problem)
I had a couple of friends both medical doctors by the other day (I assume they are above average intelligence)… and they firmly believe we are going solar. Costs are coming down … etc etc etc… bullet points right out of the New York Times…
I must follow Dale Carnegie’s advice…. I am not negative … I am not argumentative…. I must whirl about the topic like a dervish avoiding commitment to Koombaya … while demonstrating enthusiasm…. because at some point I may need them to write me a script for a jar of Oxycontin….
Intelligent Ignorance is pervasive… it’s like a disease that has infected the world…. ask Jordan Peterson about that….
There is our answer as to why, when the numbers really don’t add up, and our civilization runs on oil, the Windy Solar Cult is being pursued: short-term, subsidized, profits. For politicians, kick-backs and the appearance of doing something.
Definitely…. we are transitioning…. we are making progress….. that’s what the cattle want to hear… remember how it required a computer the size of a living room to do what a calculator can do now…..
Do any of the pundits for solar and wind stop and consider how much energy it would take to manufacture, transport and deploy enough wind turbines, solar panels, inverters and batteries to replace all the current electricity requirements of the US? Even if it could be done, it would take decades to do so. First, we don’t have decades. Secondly, by that time, all the batteries (the largest and most resource intensive piece) will all need replacing five or six times over. There will also be countless turbine failures as well. The whole of the “renewable” infrastructure will break down before all of it can even be built. It is an endless treadmill to no where. At least with fossil fuels we can build things and sit back and enjoy them before they break down.
With wind, there is endless replacement of broken parts that need to be handled. Solar seems to need endless battery backup. I saw an article yesterday, “Grid complexity is increasing exponentially. Is blockchain the answer?” We have been assuming that an exponential increase in grid complexity is essentially free. In fact, we label the system “renewable.”
It seems like everything is reaching the point on the graph paper where complexity (and the growth rates to sustain it) are going vertical – through the ceiling. How is it that folks cannot see what is happening? We need less complex solutions. We need cheap solutions. And we need them now.
It seems to me that we already got that (to some extent); keep the majority busy in bullshit jobs shuffling papers or selling services, using as less resources & energy as possible. The most skilled ones can apply themselves to push a little extra efficiency out of the resource intensive projects & production that are actually going ahead…..
“… keep the majority busy in bullshit jobs shuffling papers or selling services, using as less resources & energy as possible.”
Doesn’t the population keep rising this way? Along with more complexity to serve them?
And how does making abortion increasingly restricted tamp down population? Single family house development, which continues ferociously, is a stimulus to child rearing. The program for the built environment is about endless expansion of population and complexity.
How is it that folks cannot see what is happening?
If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of the giants of OFW, allowing me to see over the heads of even the tallest DelusiSTANi dwarves.
http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-if-i-have-seen-further-than-others-it-is-by-standing-upon-the-shoulders-of-giants-isaac-newton-135288.jpg
It would probably be worthwhile for me to understand better why XCEL Energy is in favor of wind and solar.
One thing I notice is that its “biggest” states are Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Colorado. These are very big wind states. Wind is a whole lot better than solar, in terms of not “ganging up” and being available when it is not needed. In these states, intermittent electricity likely can easily be sold across state lines, to keep overall problems with more electricity generation than needed down. This is a better situation than most areas of the world have. In this situation, wind especially can be considered to replace “electricity,” rather than simply replacing “fuel” that operates power plants. Usually, only a small amount of intermittent renewables can be added to a grid without problems; in this particular situation, a larger amount can be added, and some backup generation can be removed as a result.
I also notice the Xcel operates on a “cost plus” basis, as a regulated utility. (I haven’t checked whether this is true in all states.) This insulates it from pricing problems, so helps keep the low wind and solar pricing from driving other backup carriers out of business. This is highly desirable. It certainly is not available to all carriers everywhere.
Subsidies for wind and solar tend to be quite large. Some people claim that (federal+state+local) subsidies amount to as much as two-thirds of costs. It would be useful to keep track of these costs, rather than to simply bury them, as is done now.
Studies of wind and solar that claim they are CO2 saving are flawed, in that they only count direct use of energy, and not increased “complexity.” Thus, cost of debt is not included, cost of greater transmission is not included, nor are several other types of costs. Of course, the studies assume that the devices can operate for the entire planned lifetimes, and that the electricity that they provide will not need to be “shut in” because of overproduction. Thus, the general view of CO2 savings is flawed. But to the extent CO2 savings might occur, it would likely be in Midwest wind, because it is much better than, say, solar, or offshore wind, or wind onshore in Europe.
Looking at some 10-K filings of the various operating companies of XCEL, it looks like some customers pay more, specifically in order to receive renewable energy. http://investors.xcelenergy.com/Cache/1500096309.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1500096309&iid=4025308 There seems to have been a lawsuit which was recently settled. I am not sure precisely what it said, but it seems that as a result of the settlement XCEL has agreed to add more renewable energy. (Perhaps it was selling more than it had?) So this may also be behind its interest in renewable energy.
What Is the Point of Elon Musk’s Big Rocket?
https://www.livescience.com/61670-spacex-falcon-heavy-hype-explained.html?utm_source=notification
What’s the point of Elon Musk?
Jesus 2.0
Converting government $ into investor $.
Converting despair into hope.
The name Elon Musk has been well chosen; it defies categorization as to race, class, religion, etc.Ever met or even heard or read of an Elon, or a Musk? So rare a combination as to have no established profile.
People of a certain kind, created in large numbers by our education system, can project themselves onto the Elon image, and feel very pleased with themselves. ‘He’s young, cool, hopeful, clever and rich, cosmopolitan just like me,and will take us to another world now this sad old mud ball is nearly finished!’We are witnessing one of the most brilliant propaganda creations, appropriate for late-stage industrial, mass, civilization!
It’s really quite staggering that the propaganda and mind-conditioning system is projecting Elon Musk as the man to solve ALL our problems, and that this is being pushed energetically on children in school The Soviet Union could not have done better: it’s Uncle Joe Stalin – he’d even pop up and fix your car if it broke down, with a cheery smile and a ‘No problem, Comrade!’ as he lit his pipe and waved you on your way.
The majority of people are so historically ignorant -and have been kept so – that they can’t see this for what it is.
‘Things Are Getting Better Comrades!’
Just don’t answer the knock at the door at 3am…..
Léi Fēng (18 December 1940 – 15 August 1962) was a soldier in the People’s Liberation Army and is a communist legend in China. After his death, Lei was characterized as a selfless and modest person devoted to the Communist Party, Mao Zedong, and the people of China.
In 1963, he became the subject of a nationwide posthumous propaganda campaign, “Follow the examples of Comrade Lei Feng.”[1] Lei was portrayed as a model citizen, and the masses were encouraged to emulate his selflessness, modesty, and devotion to Mao. After Mao’s death, Lei Feng remained a cultural icon representing earnestness and service. His name entered daily speech and his imagery appeared on T-shirts and memorabilia.[2]
Although someone named Lei Feng probably existed, the accounts of his life as depicted by Party propaganda are heavily disputed,[3][4] leading him to become a source of cynicism and subject of derision among segments of the Chinese population.[5] Nevertheless, Lei’s image as a role model serviceman has survived decades of political change in China.[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lei_Feng
People who are in the Matrix…. the Chicom version .. the US version … the Russian version …. are not aware …. because they are f789ing steewpid MORE ons…. even if you explain to them exactly what is going on …. they will not see…. in fact they will dismiss anyone who dares to question their reality — they will get angry….
Just look at the XXX XXXing matrix….. Tim and Fast Eddy and Gail and some others… can explain in tremendous detail how it works — the purpose of it — and so on …. we can prove that it is fake….
But look at how many people here refuse to change their minds.
Just like people refuse to see that Elon is a fraud… because they have this vision of what Elon is and what he stands for … branded into their brains with a red hot iron.
The meaning of life? Realize there is a matrix — and try to escape. Every window opened brings a gust of fresh air…. and intellectual satisfaction that cannot be realized through any other endeavour.
Good post.
At the very least, we should take care not mistake our matrix-induced ways of seeing things for reality, and if we absolutely must embrace them, let’s drop the seriousness.
There’s probably no need to shed all those layers of beliefs, prejudices, illusions, judgements, aversions, phobias and obsessions.
Just realize their essential unreality and laugh when we find ourselves getting caught up in one or other of them.
Maybe the real problem is that you come across as a raving nincompoop rather than an intelligent and well-informed commentator on current events.
Like if the filthy body odor guy in the park screaming about Jesus saving us from Obama and the space reptiles tries to give me some advice about something or other I might actually go out of my to avoid taking it.
Ya but unlike the guy on the street shouting about Jesus….
My rantings make complete sense…. (at least to me).
Did I tell you about my experience with the Jesus freaks on Younge St in Toronto a few years ago?
Well… I hate shopping … so I am killing time outside The Mall (Eaton Centre) amusing myself watching the freaks … while M Fast does her thing….
There is one group promoting the Christian brand … and other promoting the Islam product….
The Christian group is making more noise so I approach — they give me the sales packet… and I say to the guy — very interesting stuff you’ve got here…. and I am in the market for a new religion ….
So what can you offer me? He says – salvation eternal life … all the usual bells and whistles…. and I say — well that guy can offer the same things BUT he also is offering me dozens of hot virgins…. basically a harem of swimsuit calendar girls….. can you beat that?
He tells me that his is the only way … all others are false… basically that the harem is fake… he cannot deliver on that…. he can’t even deliver on eternal life…. etc etc etc….
So I say — so that guy is a blasphemer … and pretender…. your way is the only way? Yes yes….
I ponder for a moment …. then I say …. ok …. what should we do about that guy…. he’s taking your business using unfair tactics…. they guys says do? what do you mean? Well he’s telling lies… his god is false…. he looks at me dumbfounded ….
Then I say ….. I think we need to attack him and beat the sh it out of him…. I tell him that I am on his side… if he gets his boys together and I join in (at this point I tell him I have played a bit of hockey …. and have been in a few punch ups over the years… expecting that it will inspire confidence having me lead the charge)…. We need to CILL CILL CILL them…. I urge him!!!
At this point M Fast emerges from The Mall…. and asks me what sort of trouble am I getting into now …. and guides me on my way to the next Mall….
Onward and upward to the techno-utopia!
“EHang’s driverless Megadrone carries passengers around China at 80mph in its first ever test flights…”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5357121/Footage-shows-EHangs-driverless-MEGADRONE-action.html
It is a lot easier to imagine a few mega drones operating than a much larger number of computer operated vehicles. At least at this point in time, the air space is less occupied.
can a USA doomster please tell me this is just a send up
and please not for REAL!!!!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/gloria-copeland-flu-jesus_us_5a792055e4b00f94fe944ac8
Why is this even remotely surprising? History tells us that people turn to religion in the twilight of every civilization.
This may be more of an intelligence test. The ones who choose not to get the shots may not be terribly bright.
The flu shot isn’t really that bright of a decision. They basically never guess the proper strain and at best it ends up 50% effective. This year they say it was something like 10% effective.
Exactly, and there is so much propaganda attached, it’s a for profit enterprise using the guise of ‘doing your part’.
I would say for many folks, a simple harm/benefit analysis says don’t get one.
“I would say for many folks, a simple harm/benefit analysis says don’t get one.”
Exactly. Unless you are elderly, have an immune disorder or take immunosuppressant drugs the harm/benefit doesn’t work out in favor of it.
I overheard some elderly guy talking about a flu jab last winter…. he said he got the jab and ended up feeling very poorly ….. he’ll never get another….
I cannot ever remember contracting ‘the flu’…. It’s all a ho ax… and if it is not then it sounds like a good way to cull the weak from the herd.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo
George Carlin – Germs
Anti-biotics (bacteria have almost finished their training and almost become resistant – super germs anyone?) and vakkination hoax are going to bite us in the asis.
Here in NZ plenty of people have been getting the shots and still getting the sh.ites.
Septic systems are the true ‘protectors’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo
Germs by george C.
…..rest of my comment awaiting moderation – what a joke. The worlds going to ‘heel in a hand-bucket’ and a few words are judged offensive…!
Do you have a new computer? The first comment from any “new” commenter needs to pass moderation. Getting a new internet code because of a new computer is enough to trigger the need for review.
I put this block up because I was having trouble with people who use services that assign them a new internet code for each comment. These people are “up to no good.” Other sites use it as well, to keep down spam. I know Euan Mearns does on his site, for example.
My wife and I never get flu shots. Everyone else that gets them gets sick.
I caught the flu many yrs ago. It put me on my back within hrs. It was rough. Perhaps I gained some immunity from having had it once.
I think isolation from other people would save you more than “belief”.
The flu shots cover you for about 3 strains of flu and are a best guess of which type will be the worst in any particular year.
My Doctor last year had 3 flu shots covering him for 9 different types of flu, he still got sick from another strain.
I’m pretty sure that when another epidemic like the Spanish Flu of 1918 starts to take traction, there will be many lining up for flu shots, myself included. I’ve never had a flu shot before, but watch the stats every year, plus I’m not getting any younger!!
How do you know the Spanish flu of 1918 wasn’t caused by vaccinations?
http://www.whale.to/vaccine/sf1.html
I WAS AN ON-THE-SPOT OBSERVER OF THE 1918 INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC
All the doctors and people who were living at the time of the 1918 Spanish Influenza epidemic say it was the most terrible disease the world has ever had. Strong men, hale and hearty, one day would be dead the next. The disease had the characteristics of the black death added to typhoid, diphtheria, pneumonia, smallpox, paralysis and all the diseases the people had been vaccinated with immediately following World War 1. Practically the entire population had been injected “seeded” with a dozen or more diseases — or toxic serums. When all those doctor-made diseases started breaking out all at once it was tragic.
That pandemic dragged on for two years, kept alive with the addition of more poison drugs administered by the doctors who tried to suppress the symptoms. As far as I could find out, the flu hit only the vaccinated. Those who had refused the shots escaped the flu. My family had refused all the vaccinations so we remained well all the time. We knew from the health teachings of Graham, Trail, Tilden and others, that people cannot contaminate the body with poisons without causing disease.
When the flu was at its peak, all the stores were closed as well as the schools, businesses — even the hospital, as the doctors and nurses had been vaccinated too and were down with the flu. No one was on the streets. It was like a ghost town. We seemed to be the only family which didn’t get the flu; so my parents went from house to house doing what they could to look after the sick, as it was impossible to get a doctor then. If it were possible for germs, bacteria, virus, or bacilli to cause disease, they had plenty of opportunity to attack my parents when they were spending many hours a day in the sick rooms. But they didn’t get the flu and they didn’t bring any germs home to attack us children and cause anything. None of our family had the flu — not even a sniffle— and it was in the winter with deep snow on the ground.
When I see people cringe when someone near them sneezes or coughs, I wonder how long it will take them to find out that they can’t catch it — whatever it is. The only way they can get a disease is to develop it themselves by wrong eating, drinking, smoking or doing some other things which cause internal poisoning and lowered vitality. All diseases are preventable and most of them are curable with the right methods, not known to medical doctors, and not all drugless doctors know them either.
It has been said that the 1918 flu epidemic killed 20,000,000 people throughout the world. But, actually, the doctors killed them with their crude and deadly treatments and drugs. This is a harsh accusation but it is nevertheless true, judging by the success of the drugless doctors in comparison with that of the medical doctors.
A dry run for the TV series Utopia… where the PTB intend to eliminate most of the population ….
I think that there were probably quite a few badly nourished people at the time of World War I. That would add to the spread of the disease, and how lethal it was.
The strong young people who died mainly had a co-infection of tuberculosis as well.
Here is an epidemiological study done on the subject, attributing the “w-curve” mortality graph for the 1918 flu to a tuberculosis pandemic co-occuring:
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/2012/124861/
at the start of ww 1, recruitment statistics clearly show that the officer class—ie rich—were on average 6” taller than the working class rank and file men
one of the reasons the 1918 flu killed so many young people was because there had been a severe outbreak in the 1880s/90s.
this gave some protection to the next outbreak 25 years later, but not to people born after that time—hence it was people under 30 who most got caught by the 1918 outbreak
but undernourishment played a part in it too of course
Thanks! I think I remember reading that somewhere, long ago.
The prices of consumer goods and food prices before WWI started to rise in my region of Austria-Hungary of that time (in Slovak):
“V rokoch pred prvou svetovou vojnou začali stúpať ceny spotrebných tovarov, najmä potravín. V prvých rokoch tohto storočia napr. kg hovädzieho mäsa bol za 60 halierov. V roku 1913 to isté množstvo stálo 83 halierov. Liter mlieka bol za 12 halierov, v r. 1913 20
halierov. Vrece múky OGG stálo 21 korún, tesne pred vojnou už 36 korún. Liter kvalitného vína bol za 26-30 halierov, pred vojnou 65 halierov.”
https://www.obecpruske.sk/download_file_f.php?id=28685
(E.g. in 1900: 1 kg of beef – 60 hellers, 1 liter of milk – 12 hellers, 1 sack of flour OGG – 21 crowns, 1 liter of quality wine – 26-30 hellers; shortly beforte the WWI, in 1913, the prices were as follows: 1 kg of beef – 83 hellers, 1 liter of milk – 20 hellers, 1 sack of flour OGG – 36 crowns, 1 liter of quality wine – 65 hellers.)
Thanks! Good point!
Very silly to get injec..ted with Toxins; if it was so safe why has the mix/carrierschanged so often? True selection of the sheeple
She probably caught the flu … from a flu shot… and is bitter
“…the Dow and other indices were in complete collapse right before the start of Monday’s final hour of trading. At one point the Dow, which represents only 30 stocks but is still a widely followed indicator, tumbled to a loss of about 1,600 points.
“That’s as big of a decline as ever.
“But then something happened. Someone arbitrarily and aggressively started buying stocks and halved the loss.”
https://nypost.com/2018/02/05/dc-plunge-team-may-have-halted-unprecedented-dow-jones-spiral/
That would have been the PPT, but they couldn’t arrest the following session’s decline. Let’s see what tomorrow brings 😉
The WSJ is now reporting (before opening bell on Tuesday), “At the moment, the futures imply a 500-point tumble for the Dow at the opening bell. “
Computer programs sometimes do strange things too. These are relatively new entrants to the mix of traders.
It is possible that it is the work of the PPT that is keeping things fairly level now.
Ah the PPT….. it was just a matter of time before they stepped in…. the controlled demolition is over….
Whenever I see something like this I think of what happened in China a couple of years back… markets were imploding …. and the PBOC trotted out the big guns …. and within a few days …. they had bombed the shorts back into the stone age…..
Then for good measure … the PBOC kicked their teeth out when they were lying on the ground unconscious …. as a warning — Do Not F789 With the Jes.us.
That said – I do not think this sell off was the same as what was happening in China… I see this as a permitted sell off… to bring the PE ratios down to less absurd levels….
On the macro level Everything is controlled. Everything. And no doubt has been for a very long time.
https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/03/a4/20/d7/national-marionette-theatre.jpg
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/
Asian markets following US lead, are dumping big time.
My impression was that some of those markets really started the decline. China technology stock were down on Friday, and they are 12 hours ahead of the US East Coast. Some other shares/markets were down as well.
Chris Nowinski, Ph.D.
✔
@ChrisNowinski1
Plays like Malcolm Jenkins unloading on Brandin Cooks helmet-to-helmet from behind cannot continue if the NFL doesn’t want more fans to walk away. No penalty? This rule has to change in the offseason if we still respect human life.
The hit: https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/04/brandin-cooks-leaves-super-bowl-lii-huge-hit
If the Snowflakes have it their way … the NFL will end up like this:
In Charts: Has The US Shale Drilling Revolution Peaked?
https://www.epmag.com/charts-has-us-shale-drilling-revolution-peaked-1663686#p=full
and then there’s this?
As it stands, cash is the only means by which the public can hold central bank money. If someone wishes to digitise that holding, he/she has to convert the central bank liability into a commercial bank liability by depositing the cash in a bank. A CBCC would allow consumers to hold central bank liabilities in digital form.23 But this would also be possible if the public were allowed to have central bank accounts, an idea that has been around for a long time.24 We argue that the main benefit that a consumer-facing retail CBCC would offer, over the provision of public access to (centralised) central bank accounts, is that the former would have the potential to provide the anonymity of cash. In particular, peer-to-peer transfers allow anonymity vis-à-vis any third party. If third-party anonymity is not of sufficient importance to the public, then many of the alleged benefits of retail CBCCs can be achieved by giving broad access to accounts at the central bank.
Whether or not a central bank should provide a digital alternative to cash is most pressing in countries, such as Sweden, where cash usage is rapidly declining. But all central banks may eventually have to decide whether issuing retail or wholesale CBCCs makes sense in their own context. In making this decision, central banks will have to consider not only consumer preferences for privacy and possible efficiency gains – in terms of payments, clearing and settlement – but also the risks it may entail for the financial system and the wider economy, as well as any implications for monetary policy (Bordo and Levin (2017)). Some of the risks are currently hard to assess. For instance, at present very little can be said about the cyber-resilience of CBCCs, something not touched upon in this short feature.
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709f.htm
Eventually, we will lose all financial systems. Sweden seems to be ahead on reducing the use of cash, probably because they want negative interest rates.
Indeed, cash limits the amount to which they can go negative to a lower single digit percentage. If it was more people would start finding all sorts of “solutions” that are more cost-effective such as cash ; even with storage, security & insurance deducted.
This is were gold & silver might (briefly) shine in my opinion. Next step down is total collapse in which there is not enough marketable goods (=food, necessities, energy!!) to go around. By the way, i have seen you suggest in one of the earlier comment sections that gold is linked to oil-price. Can you explain (exactly) your reasoning why it should follow oil prices ? thanks in advance
Whatever…. but I can guarantee one thing … if the Fed decides this is the future then Bitcoin and these are other pretenders…. will not be part of that future.
As we are seeing anyone can start up a new CC …. there are now over 1500 of them….. so what … the Fed can’t do that on their own?
Anyone who has made money on this nonsense … and who did not cash out while up …. deserves to go broke. Because they are stewpid more ons
For the royal mint to get involved and back it with gold is still very mysterious
Bitcoin Dips Below $7k Amidst News of China’s Full Ban of Cryptocurrency Exchanges
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-dips-below-7k-amidst-news-of-chinas-full-ban-of-cryptocurrency-exchanges
I had a few people urging me to get in on this game …. late in the game…. they quoted the $50k upside saying it was still early innings….
I suggested that the CBs would eventually step in to kill this by outlawing it…. then it goes to zero…
Well… well.. well…..
Imagine having bought Bitcoin at say 15,000…..
This is the danger of buying into hype… and ignoring logic…. as if the CBs were ever going to allow their printing presses to be usurped…. they kill for less
It was under 6k briefly.