BP recently published energy data through December 31, 2017, in its Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. The following are a few points we observe, looking at the data:
[1] The world is making limited progress toward moving away from fossil fuels.
The two bands that top fossil fuels that are relatively easy to see are nuclear electric power and hydroelectricity. Solar, wind, and “geothermal, biomass, and other” are small quantities at the top that are hard to distinguish.
Figure 1. World energy consumption divided between fossil fuels and non-fossil fuel energy sources, based on data from BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Wind provided 1.9% of total energy supplies in 2017; solar provided 0.7% of total energy supplies. Fossil fuels provided 85% of energy supplies in 2017. We are moving away from fossil fuels, but not quickly.
Of the 252 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) energy consumption added in 2017, wind added 37 MTOE and solar added 26 MTOE. Thus, wind and solar amounted to about 25% of total energy consumption added in 2017. Fossil fuels added 67% of total energy consumption added in 2017, and other categories added the remaining 8%.
[2] World per capita energy consumption is still on a plateau.
In recent posts, we have remarked that per capita energy consumption seems to be on a plateau. With the addition of data through 2017, this still seems to be the case. The reason why flat energy consumption per capita is concerning is because energy consumption per capita normally rises, based on data since 1820.1 This is explained further in Note 1 at the end of this article. Another reference is my article, The Depression of the 1930s Was an Energy Crisis.
Figure 2. World energy consumption per capita, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
While total energy consumption is up by 2.2%, world population is up by about 1.1%, leading to a situation where energy consumption per capita is rising by about 1.1% per year. This is within the range of normal variation.
One thing that helped energy consumption per capita to rise a bit in 2017 relates to the fact that oil prices were down below the $100+ per barrel range seen in the 2011-2014 period. In addition, the US dollar was relatively low compared to other currencies, making prices more attractive to non-US buyers. Thus, 2017 represented a period of relative affordability of oil to buyers, especially outside the US.
[3] If we view the path of consumption of major fuels, we see that coal follows a much more variable path than oil and natural gas. One reason for the slight upturn in per capita energy consumption noted in [2] is a slight upturn in coal consumption in 2017.
Figure 3. World oil, coal, and natural gas consumption through 2017, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Coal is different from oil and gas, in that it is more of a “dig it as you need it” fuel. In many parts of the world, coal mines have a high ratio of human labor to capital investment. If prices are high enough, coal will be extracted and consumed. If prices are not sufficiently high, coal will be left in the ground and the workers laid off. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, coal prices in 2017 were higher than prices in both 2015 and 2016 in all seven markets for which they provide indications. Typically, prices in 2017 were more than 25% higher than those for 2015 and 2016.
The production of oil and natural gas seems to be less responsive to price fluctuations than coal.2 In part, this has to do with the very substantial upfront investment that needs to be made. It also has to do with the dependence of governments on the high level of tax revenue that they can obtain if oil and gas prices are high. Oil exporters are especially concerned about this issue. All players want to maintain their “share” of the world market. They are reluctant to reduce production, regardless of what prices do in the short term.
[4] China is one country whose coal production has recently ticked upward in response to higher coal prices.
Figure 4. China’s energy production by fuel, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
China has been able to bridge the gap by using an increasing amount of imported fuels. In fact, according to BP, China was the world’s largest importer of oil and coal in 2017. It was second only to Japan in the quantity of imported natural gas.
[5] China’s overall energy pattern appears worrying, despite the uptick in coal production.
Figure 5. China’s energy production by fuel plus its total energy consumption, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
If China expects to maintain its high GDP growth ratio as a manufacturing country, it will need to keep its energy consumption growth up. Doing this will require an increasing share of world exports of fossil fuels of all kinds. It is not clear that this is even possible unless other areas can ramp up their production and also add necessary transportation infrastructure.
Oil consumption, in particular, is rising quickly, thanks to rising imports. (Compare Figure 6, below, with Figure 4.)
Figure 6. China’s energy consumption by fuel, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
[6] India, like China, seems to be a country whose energy production is falling far behind what is needed to support planned economic growth. In fact, as a percentage, its energy imports are greater than China’s, and the gap is widening each year.
The big gap between energy production and consumption would not be a problem if India could afford to buy these imported fuels, and if it could use these imported fuels to make exports that it could profitably sell to the export market. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be the case.
Figure 7. India’s energy production by fuel, together with its total energy consumption, based upon BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
India’s electricity sector seems to be having major problems recently. The Financial Times reports, “The power sector is at the heart of a wave of corporate defaults that threatens to cripple the financial sector.” While higher coal prices were good for coal producers and helped enable coal imports, the resulting electricity is more expensive than many customers can afford.
[7] It is becoming increasingly clear that proved reserves reported by BP and others provide little useful information.
BP provides reserve data for oil, natural gas, and coal. It also calculates R/P ratios (Reserves/Production ratios), using reported “proved reserves” and production in the latest year. The purpose of these ratios seems to be to assure readers that there are plenty of years of future production available. Current worldwide average R/P ratios are
- Oil: 50 years
- Natural Gas: 53 years
- Coal: 134 years
The reason for using the R/P ratios is the fact that geologists, including the famous M. King Hubbert, have looked at future energy production based on reserves in a particular area. Thus, geologists seem to depend upon reserve data for their calculations. Why shouldn’t a similar technique work in the aggregate?
For one thing, geologists are looking at particular fields where conditions seem to be favorable for extraction. They can safely assume that (a) prices will be high enough, (b) there will be adequate investment capital available and (c) other conditions will be right, including political stability and pollution issues. If we are looking at the situation more generally, the reasons why fossil fuels are not extracted from the ground seem to revolve around (a), (b) and (c), rather than not having enough fossil fuels in the ground.
Let’s look at a couple of examples. China’s coal production dropped in Figure 4 because low prices made coal extraction unprofitable in some fields. There is no hint of that issue in China’s reported R/P ratio for coal of 39.
Although not as dramatic, Figure 4 also shows that China’s oil production has dropped in recent years, during a period when prices have been relatively low. China’s R/P ratio for oil is 18, so theoretically it should have plenty of oil available. The Chinese figured out that in some cases, it could import oil more cheaply than it could produce it themselves. As a result, China’s production has dropped.
In Figure 7, India’s coal production is not rising as rapidly as needed to keep production up. Its R/P ratio for coal is 137. Its oil production has been declining since 2012. Its R/P for oil is shown to be 14.4 years.
Another example is Venezuela. As many people are aware, Venezuela has been having severe economic problems recently. We can see this in its falling oil production and its related falling oil exports and consumption.
Figure 8. Venezuela’s oil production, consumption and exports, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Yet Venezuela reports the highest “Proved oil reserves” in the world. Its reported R/P ratio is 394. In fact, its proved reserves increased during 2017, despite its very poor production results. Part of the problem is that proved oil reserves are often not audited amounts, so proved reserves can be as high as an exporting country wants to make them. Another part of the problem is that price is extremely important in determining which reserves can be extracted and which cannot. Clearly, Venezuela needs much higher prices than have been available recently to make it possible to extract its reserves. Venezuela also seems to have had low production in the 1980s when oil prices were low.
I was one of the co-authors of an academic paper pointing out that oil prices may not rise high enough to extract the resources that seem to be available. It can be found at this link: An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits. The problem is an affordability problem. The wages of manual laborers and other non-elite workers need to be high enough that they can afford to buy the goods and services made by the economy. If there is too much wage disparity, demand tends to fall too low. As a result, prices do not rise to the level that fossil fuel producers need. The limit on fossil fuel extraction may very well be how high prices can rise, rather than the amount of fossil fuels in the ground.
[8] Nuclear power seems to be gradually headed for closure without replacement in many parts of the world. This makes it more difficult to create a low carbon electricity supply.
A chart of nuclear electricity production by part of the world shows the following information:
Figure 9. Nuclear electric power production by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. FSU is “Former Soviet Union” countries.
The peak in nuclear power production took place in 2006. A big step-down in nuclear power generation took place after the Fukushima nuclear power accident in Japan in 2011. Europe now seems to be taking steps toward phasing out its nuclear power plants. If nothing else, new safety standards tend to make nuclear power plants very expensive. The high price makes it too expensive to replace aging nuclear power plants with new plants, at least in the parts of the world where safety standards are considered very important.
In 2017, wind and solar together produced about 59% as much electricity as nuclear power, on a worldwide basis. It would take a major effort simply to replace nuclear with wind and solar, and the results would not provide as stable an output level as is currently available.
Of course, some countries will go forward with nuclear, in spite of safety concerns. Much of the recent growth in nuclear power has been in China. Countries belonging to the former Soviet Union (FSU) have been adding new nuclear production. Also, Iran is known for its nuclear power program.
Conclusion
We live in challenging times!
Notes:
(1) There is more than one way of seeing that energy consumption per capita needs to rise, despite rising efficiency.
One basic issue is that enough energy consumption needs to get back to individual citizens, particularly citizens with few skills, so that they can continue to have the basic level of goods and services that they need. This includes food, clothing, housing, transportation, education and other services, such as medical services. Unfortunately, history shows that efficiency gains don’t do enough to offset several other countervailing forces that tend to offset the benefits of efficiency gains. The forces working against unskilled workers getting enough goods and services include the following:
(a) Diminishing returns ensures that an increasing share of energy supplies must be used to dig deeper wells or provide water desalination, to operate mines for all kinds of minerals, and to extract fossil fuels. This means that less of the energy that is available can get back to workers.
(b) Governments need to grow because of promises that they have made to citizens. Retirement benefits in particular are an issue, as populations age. This takes another “cut” out of what is available.
(c) Increased use of technology tends to produce a much more hierarchical workforce structure. People at the top of the organization are paid significantly more than those near the bottom. Globalization tends to add to this effect. It is the low wages of those at the bottom of the hierarchy that becomes a problem because those workers cannot afford to buy the goods and services that they need to provide for themselves and their families.
(d) Increasing use of technology can often produce replacements for manual labor. For example, robots and computers can replace some jobs, leaving many would-be workers unemployed. The companies that produce the replacements for manual labor are often international companies that are difficult to tax. Governments can try to raise taxes to provide benefits to those excluded from the economy as a consequence of the growing use of technology, but this simply exacerbates the problem described as (b) above.
(e) The world economy always has some countries that are doing better than others in terms of GDP growth. These countries are nearly always countries whose energy use per capita is growing. Current examples include China and India. If world resources per capita are flat, there must be others whose energy consumption per capita is falling. Examples today would include Venezuela, Greece and the UK. It is the countries with falling energy consumption per capita that have the more severe difficulties. Our networked world economy cannot get along without these failing economies.
Besides the issue of enough goods and services getting back to those with limited skills, a second basic issue is having enough energy-based goods and services to actually fulfill promises that have been made. One type of promise is debt and related interest payments. Another type of promise is that made by pension plans, whether government sponsored or available from private industry. A third type of promise is represented by asset prices available in the marketplace, such as prices of shares of stock and real estate prices.
The problem is that promises of all types can, in theory, be exchanged for goods and services. The stock of goods and services cannot rise very quickly, if energy consumption is only rising at the per-capita rate. Even if more money is issued, the problem becomes dividing up a not-very-rapidly growing pie into ever-smaller pieces, to try to fulfill all of the promises.
(2) With respect to oil, the one major deviation from its flat pattern occurred in the early 1980s, when world oil consumption fell by 11% between 1979 and 1983. This happened as the result of a concerted effort to change home heating and electricity production to other fuels. It also involved a change from large inefficient cars to smaller, more fuel efficient cars. After the 2007-2009 recession, there was another small step downward. This downward step may reflect less building of new homes and commercial spaces in some parts of the world, including the US.
While we are sitting in the cannibals pot and waiting for the water to boil.
FE: Did she give you…you know…something else?
Norman: Besides chlamydia? You will have to read my memoirs.
Anyway…some heavy metal to bang our heads against.
Do these boys play their instruments with their tools? Yes, of course they do.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jmkRHo4Vca4
End of BAU? It’s catching up.
https://twitter.com/APBusiness/status/1011643352335470593
We’re going exponential! At least until we hit $72 and the price collapses down to $67…
Another question . Is the Middle East North African (MENA) and the Central American refugee diaspora into Europe and the US offsetting population growth in those countries of origin, or are the developed countries enabling further population growth in MENA and Central America?
It seems that when a Cloward-Piven strategy of overwhelming societal support system exhaustion has occurred, there will be two masses of people that will be suddenly “abandoned”- and abandoned they will be after they have served their purpose: Refugees in western developed countries and “replacement” refugees still mired in their native countries.
Illegal immigration does not solve either of the two problems we face from a finite resource perspective: developed country citizens gorging themselves on unsustainble energy, the fact that the population of this cohort may be decreasing notwithstanding, and the continued flow of illegal aliens, replenished by a much higher birth rate.
Both groups will be left stranded in the end.
My general impression is that the developed countries are enabling further population growth in MENA and Central America. Population pressure is reduced in those countries by the people leaving the country.
The US and Canada in particular has quite a bit of arable land and are not terribly densely settled. If they bring in population, it can still be somewhat handled. And Europe and Japan have such shortfalls of young people that adding immigrants helps their overall population structure.
‘The entire habitat is gone’: Hawaii’s natural wonders claimed by lava
In Puna, the area of Hawaii island that’s been hardest hit by the Kilauea volcano eruption, those who lived nearest to the lava flows watched the forest around their homes begin to die first. They said the fruit trees, flowers and ferns began turning brown, languishing in the noxious, sulfur-dioxide-filled air. Then the lava came. Now large swaths of formerly verdant forest have been replaced by rough and barren volcanic terrain.
“Before the eruptions, that area was probably the best forest left in the state of Hawaii,” said Patrick Hart, a biology professor at the University of Hawaii at Hilo. “There were areas where the native Ohia forest extended right up to the ocean, and you just don’t see that in the rest of Hawaii,” he said. Now it’s covered with 20 to 30ft of lava.
On Hawaii island, also known as the Big Island, lava from the weeks-long eruption of the Kilauea volcano has also paved over tide pools and coral gardens, boiled a 400-year-old lake until it evaporated and killed a number of sea creatures.
But to scientists, it’s just part of life on the state’s youngest island, where land is still being created as lava continuously reshapes the natural environment.
“From a human point of view, what’s happening is tragic,” said David Damby, a volcanologist with the United States Geological Survey (USGS). “But from the volcano’s point of view, that’s the job she does: to build new land and change the landscape. That’s the way the earth works.”
The humid, rainy forests in Puna were an important habitat for native Hawaiian trees, birds and insects, Hart said. Chartreuse-colored ‘amakihis and bright red ‘apapanes rested on trees, Hawaiian hawks soared through the air, and dragonflies, butterflies and crickets all made the forest their home.It will likely take at least 100 years for the decimated tracts of lava-covered forest to begin again – first with lichen, then with native ferns and Ohia trees that have adapted to grow on lava. In 150 years, Hart said, the land could begin to resemble a forest like the one that used to be there. It’s a process that has happened many times before on Hawaii.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/20/hawaii-volcano-eruption-kilauea-natural-wonders-destroyed-kapoho-bay
this article we showing mother nature can finished Anyday
Self-organized systems keep changing. This is an example. I visited this area a few years ago, including the Geothermal Electricity Generating station powered by the heat from the volcano. The volcano is at quite a distance from most of the population, so a fairly long transmission line is needed to distribute its electricity to the rest of the island. Also, its sulfurous smell is not appreciated by vacationers to the island.
I lived in Maui for 10 years. Vog from the Big Island put everyone on hold– and it was pretty universal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vog
Pingback: Eight insights based on BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 | BiophysEco
Great review! Two most growing economies China & India highly dependent on energy imports. And that dependency is growing.
Thanks!
Game Over – Oil Prices Are Going Higher
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183852-game-oil-prices-going-higher
The global economy looks like the Titanic right now. The iceberg is the incoming oil price spike and the complacent investment community won’t even know what hits them. We will be following the developments closely as to how global oil supply/demand balances play out over the coming months. Our forecast shows a steepening deficit to 2020 as Venezuelan, Iranian and non-OPEC ex-U.S. and Canadian production losses increase. This scenario will play out even if Saudi and GCC allies increase oil production alongside U.S. shale. Once OECD storage reaches a critical level, the market will have to spike oil prices to the extent that oil demand destruction starts to take place. This could also send risk assets spiraling downward, which we think we will be well-positioned to take advantage of.
The game is up, and there’s no avoiding a rising oil price environment now.
And when the price goes to high for the average consumer, the economy will catch a massive cold. If the price stays high for too long then the economy will catch pneumonia. We saw how this played out in 2008.
HSBC: Brace for the oil, food and financial crash of 2018
80% of the world’s oil has peaked, and the resulting oil crunch will flatten the economy
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b#.z9uwvj2gd
https://lettersinarow.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/brace.jpg
Nothing that we didn’t already know…The following is an edited transcript of remarks made by mining entrepreneur Ross Beaty during a panel session at the Resources for Future Generations conference in Vancouver in mid-June.
Humanity ‘living on borrowed time’ as ‘cheap metals’ disappear, says Ross Beaty
http://mymeow.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/x-Globe-in-Hand-940×627.jpg
“All global governments remain obsessed with GDP growth. This is a recipe for disaster — growth of anything in a finite system is impossible, and always ends in collapse. Always.
If we extrapolate from the average growth rate since 1950, the world economy in 2050 will be four times larger than it is today. If world population grows to 9 billion, as is the forecast, and everybody were to have the same per capita consumption of Canada, the world economy would have to be 15 times bigger than it is today.
These numbers are just ridiculous. This is the very definition of unsustainable. We have neither the soil, groundwater, mineral resources, land, ocean or any other resource to support these kind of numbers. It’s time to recognize that we cannot grow like we have to date. We need to build a new economy based on permanence.
The world is changing quickly. We simply cannot assume that the future will be like the past. Barriers to growth are everywhere. Cheap oil is probably gone. Cheap copper, aluminum, zinc and other metals are probably gone as well. Debt cannot continue to outpace economic growth.”
Resources for Future Generations? Sticks, stones, leaves, mud, rushes, bones, sinews, skins, fur, hair, dung, bark, horn, reeds, flax…..
Dog spinning around chasing its tail, in utter confusion. This is where intuition could help.
I’d give him greater credit were he to have said ‘We need to build a new economy, built upon the understanding of Impermanence.’
And even more credit for acknowledging that we cannot move to something new as a rational, globally-planned act.
“And even more credit for acknowledging that we cannot move to something new as a rational, globally-planned act.”
++++++++++++++
Sounds a lot like this article: “The End of Growth, Either it ends, or We Do
by Chris Martenson
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114131/end-growth
a ridiculous premise, we end when growth ends. typical martenson, a lawyer.
Martenson is a dentist, by background.
Martenson is a dentist? Where did you get that one Gail? He has a Phd. in biology I think from Duke. He was a corporate executive for years, CFO of a Fortune 500 company I think, before taking the blue pill and ditching his career to run Peak Prosperity.
Yeah, I don’t think i’ve ever heard him say he was a dentist. I do remember it being mentioned he was a bigwig for a big company and he has a degree in in science or something like that.
On Wikipedia, it says regarding education:
So I must have remembered wrong. Or else he specialized in pathology related to teeth. It was a health related field.
I used to fly fighter jets for the US air force… before I embarked on my career as a doomsday prophet….
Anyone else want to share their story?
@Fast Eddy – I used to be a psychological warfare instructor. Now I’m preparing for a career as a post-apocalyptic marauder.
Excellent.
If I were in my 20’s …. I’d be trying to get into the special forces…. with advanced training in taking out hobby farms and running slaves and concubines…
I heard he was a pimp….
SAIC spook.
‘Growth is now the enemy’
Wait till Chris sees what the end of growth looks like…. he may change his mind…. although I suspect when he recognizes the folly of his desire… he’ll go completely mad….
I am afraid Chris gets the story wrong, however. We cannot simply end growth and save ourselves.
I’ve watched a few of his recent updates on Youtube and he has seemed palpably upset about dishonest central banks, inequitable wealth distribution and environmental degradation. I hope he’s not headed for a nervous breakdown. Seems like a good guy.
Peak oil and sustainability people have been telling an untrue story for a long time. We don’t have a situation where the oil and other energy prices will magically rise, and fix our energy supply problem. We don’t have renewables that are worth much, or scale very well. We can’t get along without fossil fuel energy supplies; in fact, we need more cheaper energy. Inadequate energy supplies make themselves known through wage disparity, and wage disparity ultimately leads to collapse. Wage disparity and collapse don’t end well.
Martenson’s wife is a therapist who works with people experiencing anxiety about collapse. Presumably she could help him if he feels a nervous breakdown coming on.
When I feel anxious about the Final Countdown… I take a few grains of Fentanyl… a glass or two or red wine… and I put this on
https://youtu.be/MOlZlXn0KT8
Really strange how so many people are upset with the CBs….. the CBs are heros….
I think Chris M’s objection to the conduct of the CB’s post-GFC centres on their failure to share their gigantic infusion of ‘artificial’ liquidity with all social strata, benefiting their Wall Street buddies much more than the ordinary Joe’s on Main Street.
But they have… all boats have been floated e.g. pensions would collapse without CB stimulus… corporations that employ hundreds of millions would blow up…
Of course some boats have floated more than others … but that was inevitable…. and is a side effect of flooding the planet with trillions of dollars
A similar story is being spun over at Surplus Energy…. as it sinks deeper into DelusiSTAN.
Like Jack said… people don’t want the truth … they cannot handle the truth….
The Horror… The Horror….
Top 0.1% are probably just looking to save themselves. Is that doable for them?
When/if system collapses wealth and property will not be worth anything.
If slow decline wealth would be worth more than any prepping.
Prepping is a good idea… from the perspective of those with a lot of guns and ammo who are too lazy to prep themselves…
They will appreciate all the hard work… when they shackle you to the plow and have their way with your wimmin.
For those who think they will refuse … we have a precedent…
In the Belgian Congo wimmin were rounded up into cages and their husbands were forced to gather rubber sap… if they did not meet quota or refused altogether … their wimmin were abused…
If that did not work — they cut off the hands of the husbands… as a message to others who refused.
We humans… are very creative beasts….
“If world population grows to 9 billion, as is the forecast, and everybody were to have the same per capita consumption of Canada, the world economy would have to be 15 times bigger than it is today. These numbers are just ridiculous. This is the very definition of unsustainable. We have neither the soil, groundwater, mineral resources, land, ocean or any other resource to support these kind of numbers.”
And yet that’s what the world unknowingly signed up for in 1913 on Jekyll Island 😉
Is there a national holiday for “Hug Your Bankster Day”?
Cheap water is gone in many parts of the world as well. And people’s wages don’t rise unless there is rising productivity (and perhaps not even then).
We are here
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/sites/sbs.com.au.news/files/styles/full/public/images/2/6/2625_cattle-exports-b-110531-aap.jpg
It’ll all be over soon. Within 10 years this civilisation will be in hospice.
“The gloom is deepening for Chinese stocks. The benchmark Shanghai Composite slid into bear market territory on Tuesday, closing more than 20% below its recent high in January. The index fell 0.5% on the day.”
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/26/investing/china-stock-market-bear/index.html
“The slide in the yuan exchange rate over recent days comes as global investors start to vote with their feet, no longer viewing China as a “safe haven” impervious to trouble sweeping other emerging markets… The China currency scare two years ago ended when the Yellen Fed came to the rescue and suspended its tightening cycle, buying precious time for the Chinese authorities to restore control and launch a fresh mini-boom. The circumstances are entirely different today. The US is closer to overheating. The Powell Fed is more hawkish. The Trump Treasury will not lift a finger to help this time.”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-walking-on-a-tightrope-as-foreign-investors-flee-20180626-p4znqi.html
“The value of private equity exits in the UK plunged by more than 55 per cent in the first half of the year, new figures show.”
http://www.cityam.com/288157/value-uk-private-equity-exits-falls-more-than-50-per-cent
““There is no Brexit dividend for our industry,” Michael Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/26/brexit-uncertainty-putting-860000-jobs-at-risk-warns-car-industry
“German business confidence dipped again in June, a closely watched survey said Monday, as fears of a damaging transatlantic trade war and political infighting darken the economic outlook.”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/trade-fears-sap-german-business-morale
But not as much as researchers thougt! So it is good news….
“Since last December’s nationwide protests, the authorities in Tehran have been warning Iranians against staging demonstrations that could turn Iran into “another Syria.” Events of the past few weeks, however, showed a different danger looming for Iran, that of becoming “another Venezuela”.
“A stormy session of the Iran Chamber of Commerce and Industries in Tehran on Sunday put the focus on fears of economic meltdown accelerated by threat of tougher sanctions coming from Washington in August…”
https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1312101/iran-economic-crisis-deepens-amid-calls-rouhani-resign
“The price gap between Bahrain’s U.S. dollar conventional and Islamic bonds has widened to record levels, indicating a sharp disagreement between global investors and regional institutions over the country’s ability to avoid a funding crunch.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/bahrain-bonds/mideast-debt-bahrain-bond-sukuk-spread-balloons-as-investors-disagree-on-credit-outlook-idUSL8N1TR125
“Tunisia reached a $2.8 billion loan deal with the IMF last year but agreed-upon reforms have failed to take shape. As in Jordan, Tunisia has faced public outcry when attempting to implement IMF-backed measures. Tensions escalated in January after the implementation of the government’s 2018 budget…”
https://thearabweekly.com/tunisia-beset-inflation-hikes-interest-rate-again
http://ncada-stl.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Sparks_197367152.jpg
This paper from a Texas university calculated the world energy mix at EROI 34:1 in 1980 and that it then fell to 15:1 and had remained there until 2010.
Energy by it self can’t do any work. Energy and machine is needed to do work.
They then calculated EROI 3:1 for the world. The energy sector consumes 30% of the energy and the economy receives 70% of the energy. This would ring true with that 70% of GDP goes to consumption.
This would make solar panels into energy sinks. Solar panels can’t produce enough energy to produce solar panels and electric engines.
http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/11/12347/htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKQPHC4JyAU
And there are those who will continue to buy these pcs of sh it
The fun part is that “reviews darling” a bit smaller and more practical model (liftback) by Hyundai also can’t match the swelling demand, plus rumors of S. Korean worker’s union on strike at the EV dedicated plant/assembly shifts due to much less labor intensive production; so that countries were even ~poor are shi%ting shiny bricks like Norway are pushed to the more expensive and quality inferior Tesla option in the end, because after all is still producing at least some volume each week..
In summary that partly explains why people persist – continue to buy it..
Huge Human Inequality Study Hints Revolution is in Store for U.S.
https://www.inverse.com/article/38457-inequality-study-nature-revolution
This article points to another article that is very good: Researchers Chart Rising Inequality Across Millenia
This article says
This second article points to a book published in 2017 by Princeton University Press called “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century”
Its book blurb says
Can’t open the link:(
I fixed it. The link is https://news.wsu.edu/2017/11/15/researchers-chart-rising-inequality-across-millennia/
I was watching the second Wall Street movie last night…. if anyone is feeling down about this end of world situation … I recommend you watch …. the silver lining is that 100’s of thousands of people like those depicted in that movie (botoxed to the hilt… smug, precious, superior, arrogant… adorned in high fashion)… will suffer and die…
Driving my twon tonnes of metal into town to hit the gym earlier and amusing myself by listening to Radio Pravda NZ …
And there’s a start up that is capturing carbon from burning wood using some sort of lime pallets…then they transfer the pallets to green houses and release the carbon … and apparently this results in dramatically higher crop yields….
And I am thinking….
And I am thinking…
You know what I am thinking….
You’re thinking death at the end of BAU from starvation, rickets, or being boiled alive in a caldron by the hordes is too good for ’em?
There is that…
But I am also thinking … all that carbon that we are burning … is being absorbed by the forests….
And that is why we have not boiled to death….
I am thinking … Mother Nature … is loving us for feeding her babies.
I am thinking that … as has been suggested… our purpose within the overall system … is to recycle the carbon that was trapped in the ground….
And now that we have used our ‘intelligence’ to extract and burn it up…. Mother is done with us….
Why else are we the only species possessing the higher levels of ability — there must be some purpose….
Yes, that’s *my hypothesis where humanoids come to the forefront specifically as terra-forming agents (ecosystem reset/carbon release) to help unleash yet another chapter in Earth’s development.
*although it’s quite probable similar thoughts have been woven much sooner, perhaps even decades or centuries sooner..
Yep. Our purpose in life was to burn. Burn baby burn!
Followed a small delivery truck advertising ‘Packaging made from Plants not Oil’. Hmmm didn’t see any daffodils poking out the exhaust pipe!!
the casino will remain open until the flood waters reach that level of the sinking Titanic we call BAU.
yes…
soon…
but not yet…
in many places in the world…
including this one…
it’s…
BAU tonight, baby!
Tesla is building Model 3s in a tent. Elon Musk says it’s ‘pretty sweet’; expert calls it ‘insanity’. “It’s preposterous,” Bernstein’s Warburton said. “I don’t think anyone’s seen anything like this outside of the military trying to service vehicles in a war zone.
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-tent-20180625-story.html
He’s a visionary. A lot of people just don’t get that.
Tesla is without question a US govt designated hopium machine…. that is the only reason is exists.
It does not compute.
Yep, he’s seeing things alright.
I would never pretend to know better than someone who has dated Amber Heard. Once.
https://youtu.be/QCIo8e12sBM
Shoddy quality and poor QC and missing parts
I know many model 3 have poorly aligned parts, and I know first hand how it is.
But today I was casually checking the rear driver side tire pressure I saw missing fastener. I thought its odd, and checked other side, and other side had it.
Then I remember front battery cover being floppy/moving, and removed it check it. Top clips are actually not pressed in. After removing it I see same story missing clip.
So, out of two random casual check, I found two missing fasteners.
On one side I see Musk is boasting that they can check alignment precision with 0.15mm, where as panel gaps/mis-alignments for first time being measured in inches.
Now, how it is missed in the assy, and second how bad QC is to miss the casually visible fasteners to common man?
No my confidence is further dropping on how Model 3 is assembled. I was wondering how many non-visible fasteners are missed, and how many places things are assembled incorrectly!!? I am still shaking my head after 3 weeks…
sEe page after page of comments from owners: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/shoddy-quality-and-poor-qc-and-missing-parts.117356/
There are hundreds of big and smaller issues (not shown) with the car, however this video is evidently a classic legacy industry hit piece, Mr. “Handicapped wrist” John trying various wrist demanding action, lolz..
It’s a comedy sketch.
Digital 1,100-square-foot plots in Genesis City are selling for as much as $200,000.
Last month, Ryan Kunzmann went to a bar in New York to see his 58,000 square feet of property. No, it’s not the world’s biggest bar—his holdings are virtual.
Kunzmann was one of about 20 people meeting to chat and compare their little slices of Genesis City, a digital metropolis they’re hoping will eventually become a major hub for virtual-reality commerce.
Kunzmann, who does tech support for a property management website, says he intends to turn one of his larger stretches into a virtual museum or art gallery. “There’s a lot of great art out there that people don’t get to see,” he says. “Especially if you don’t live in a big city.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/making-a-killing-in-virtual-real-estate
Announcing Decentraland’s Genesis City
How to claim, develop, and monetize your LAND.
We’re getting close to our token sale on August 17th. The sale will finance the development of Decentraland’s Iron Age, an ambitious milestone that will include:
A peer-to-peer network, allowing users to interact.
A micropayment system, creating an in-world economy.
A land management interface to develop, buy, rent, and sell LAND.
A scripting language so landowners can program custom experiences.
By participating in our token sale, you’ll be able to buy ownership in the first decentralized VR platform. IDC projects the AR and VR markets to grow from from $5.2 billion in 2016 to $162 billion by 2020. Decentraland aims to be a major player in that growth.
When Can You Claim Your LAND?
Our ERC20 token, MANA, will be directly exchangeable for LAND. In Q3 2017, we will announce the Terraform Event, after which you can exchange your MANA for LAND.
Details of Your LAND
Decentraland is a connected world formed by parcels of LAND. When claiming LAND, there are a few things to note:
Each parcel has an area of 100 square meters (roughly 1,080 square feet).
You can only claim LAND that is adjacent to previously claimed parcels. This improves the value of your LAND as it will be connected with the rest of the world.
You have complete control: only the LAND owner can define the content of their parcel.
LAND ownership is transferable. You can buy, sell, rent, or lease LAND at your will.
Blockchain Partnerships Give You Flexibility
We’ve already announced several partnerships with other blockchain platforms, including Aragon, disctrict0x, Coral, and more. These partnerships will help maximize the long-term value of your LAND.
For example, you will be able to monetize your property through rentals, leases, and sales. To facilitate a secondary market, we’ve partnered with disctrict0x. Their decentralized marketplaces will allow you to manage your LAND.
Genesis City
To encourage development, the Decentraland team is designing a layout for the first metropolis: Genesis City.
A fraction of the raised funds will be used to allocate plots as public spaces, streets, parks, landmarks, and other value-add spaces. We are incorporating ideas and feedback from the community to help determine the final layout of the city. Afterward, artists and creatives will be invited to populate these spaces.
https://blog.decentraland.org/announcing-decentralands-genesis-city-19beedf19500
So…. I take my cash … buy cryptocurrency … then buy ‘land’ that only exists in digital form….
Kinda like Farmville … where people take real money and buy fake chickens and cows….
Grand delusions….
We have entered the Twilight Zone…..
Strange!
Thing is if that picks up, then the currency/land etc of the game might end up being more valuable than many real world fiat currencies, like the currency they use in World of Warcraft. So on short term it might be an good investment with huge risks, as if the game flobs on the beginning, then U have lost your investment.
It could be the next Bitcoin … an investment based on nothing … but in an environment to total insanity … the hot money charges in for lack of any other viable opportunities … and a bubble is born….
One wants to laugh at this stuff… but you never know…. the problem is working out which one of these crazy ideas gets wind in its sails….
Almost like buying lottery tickets this is
Twilight Zone, otherwise known as James Burke Land, totally nuts……
How about some virtual lawyers for the virtual real estate! Then we will need virtual police and judges too. Things are getting crazier every day.
Becoming one with the machine…
From the machine we came … to the machine we shall return….
It is all – sort of — making sense now….
So which is it? Are there really enough reserves left in the Permian that it will be around for 5 more years to the point that there will still be a need for truck drivers, or will this shortage of truck drivers be temporary in that more pipeline will be built in short order, or will it be a situation where no sooner the last weld is secured on the pipeline to allow the flow, the oil volume will already be on the decline? Or will the economy be on the decline (economic downturn outpaces the oil production) so that oil demand drops meaning no need for truck drivers or additional pipeline capacity in short order.
The reason I am asking is that I was thinking about getting a CDL permit. At 63, good health, and always able to pass a drug screen-anytime, I wonder if a “career change” rather than sitting around the house as a “retired” doctor is worthwhile. (actually a washed up board certified, still fully licensed in NC orthopedic surgeon who can’t do a damn thing with my license because of medication error in 1991 which resulted in a suspension and probation of my license, which today even more so than 25 years ago is a professional death sentence) Even wal-mart won’t employ me because I am way too qualified, and will not go for a professional law or business degree which would take 3 years.
Gail, I now recall you were a guest on a blog ? Greg Hunter? or X-22 or Wall Street for Main Street talking about “when the trucks stop rolling.”
Any readers with some insights? I would not buy a rig, just work for the company to make a few sheckles before I have to call it quits.
I think the CDL would be worth it. Minimal investment in time. There’s good work out there right now.
Interesting post Hubbs.
Your experience is intriguing.
So your a doctor looking to drive truck.
Gail are you noticing this?
The problem is elite workers and the ROI on education.
Well, it’s not really “intriguing” JT, and I am not trying to plug my book, but all is not as it seems. My “memoirs” entitled
My Medical-Legal Back Pages. Bryce Sterling (nom de plume). On Amazon or Barnes & Noble etc.
You would never believe it, but it is all true. Started in KY, then in NC and finally ended in MS.
It’s not about return on education. It is more insidiously about there no longer being rule of law , and how this is evidenced from the lowly trial courts all the way up to the DOJ and Supreme Court of the US. Legal malpractice, medical malpractice, Medical Board abuse etc. I once was able to make $500,000, but will wind up living (retiring) in a life of quiet financial desperation.
Ok I get that. And believe that. Couldn’t find your book.
I was recently called for jury duty. As I sat there on a medical malpractice suite I couldn’t help but be amazed at who were chosen. House wives and disabled and unemployed that was a jury of peers. Interestingly I was prepared to give my reasons for not being on the jury. First of malpractice punishes the poor and disenfranchised elements of society. The insurance system creates a cost that excludes many from receiving treatment because of the high cost related to lawsuits. Fundamentally the system is a racket for lawyers and judges to be gainfully employed. It doesn’t benefit the public.
If we truly cared about the public a jury of peers would be a responsible board of medical professionals who would determine if a practitioner was competent. The system is so stupid it’s hard to even have a conversation.
JT. Couldn’t find my book? Try this.
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=my+medical+legal+back+pages
As the opening line says, it is not a “nice book.” Touches on issues of the FED, some of the waste in medical spending, and how Washington DC operates, but all of these took root in the incredible void in the rule of law which has even mushroomed since the book was released just a few months ago.
This book is just one pixel in the panorama of the events that are shaping the world we live in, from destruction of the family, breakdown of the legal system, control of the monetary and system costs of medicine.
I wrote the book more as an attempt at “closure” knowing that very few would ever read it, and indeed a neurosurgeon colleague is the only one who has posted what I would call a 5 star “planted” review. I cannot even get a lawyer to make any opinions, favorable or not.
I tried to write it as non fiction as all the persons named, court records, depositions etc. exist. Archway said no and I had to make it a “fictional account.”
The process of jury selection was established centuries ago when the “sophistication”of crimes and evidence amounted to little more than eyewitnesses of horse theft or armed robbery. Another peeve of mine is aircraft litigation, where a reliable functioning aircraft manufacturer, whose plane has been flown for decades, (must have been a hell of a good plane to last that long) was still on the hook-essentially for ever for any “defect.” I am not sure if this statute of ?repose? has been enacted, but it shows you that laws of nature, i.e. the inevitability of wear and tear were disregarded so that the legal collective could get their greedy little hands in what I would call one of the quintessential value added, productive, lifestyle improving industries.
I don’t think I was a guest on a blog, talking about when the trucks stop rolling. Alice Friedman wrote a book called, “When Trucks Stop Running.” Perhaps she was a guest on a blog. https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319263731
Regarding healthcare, I have done a lot of insurance work related to medical malpractice. I also think we need a different system. We spend way too much on healthcare. It has been one of the “services” where a huge increase in employment has taken place. There is a lot of research being done, yielding slightly better treatments at much higher costs. And a whole lot of tests done, which other countries seem to get along perfectly well without. A huge amount of computer coding is being done recording what doctors/dentist are doing, without necessarily corresponding benefit.
I would like to see the US start from the premise that we can only spend given share of GDP (say11%) on healthcare, and figure out how that amount can best be spent. Then cutback healthcare for everyone, perhaps varying by age group. Doing brain surgery on 90 year olds doesn’t make sense, nor does saving very tiny infants who likely will have life-long disabilities. The government may have to be the single payer in such a system.
Gail–
The rest of the first world has already figured this out.
They pay a max of 50% of what the US does, live longer, have lower infant mortality rates, and much better health.
It may possibly be time for the US to join the rest of the better health concuss world.
The US is is currently between Slovenia and Costa Rica in health care– but they spend 1/5th as much.
There are many studies showing how poor and how costly healthcare is. Our low food quality and high food quantity is part of the problem as well. So is our lack of exercise. Wage disparity seem to also make health worse. This is one chart from my files:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/figure-1-6-female-life-expectancy-at-birth.png
The data are presented by type of service, sources of funding, and type of sponsor. U.S. health care spending grew 4.3 percent in 2016, reaching $3.3 trillion or $10,348 per person. As a share of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, health spending accounted for 17.9 percent.Jan 8, 2018
Everyone is fighting to get their chunk of the excess energy that is available after extraction costs are met….
It seems the health care industry has got one of the biggest hunks of meat ….
I am sure government employees (e.g. teachers, FBI agents, customs officers, etc etc etc…) would like to get bigger chunks of meat (to gorge on and waste)…. but they apparently are too weak.. or too stuuuupid…
I am ambivalent when it comes to this issue…. what will be will be…
My government health insurance notice has arrived and it’s telling me I will be paying JPY 234,000 over the next year for Mrs Tim and me. That’s about USD 2,150.
On top of that, we pay 30% of the cost of any treatment we require up to a max. of some fairly modest amount that I’ve forgotten because I avoid doctors like the plague. Above that, we can claim a refund.
But high health care costs keep the US economy growing….
Sounds perfect to me, at least. I’m not sure anyone, of any age, needs to put too much emphasis on staying alive. Especially in a time when young people have no idea what skills prevailed before the 1950’s oil revolution, they have no more to contribute than the old. It seems that the old have an unusual amount to contribute at a time when the recent time yields to a more or less forgotten one.
I agree with you. The time’s coming when the old farts will be looked upon as learned elders again.
I think a lot of our problems start at the top by the law makers (congress). I feel a lot of people in congress (and in politics in general judges, lawyers etc) have conflicts of interest. I am sure many get kick-back and pay-offs from companies as well as building
companies and foundations that benefit from legislation these congressman pass. It is unfortunate. Hobbs is right in that there is no rule of law. The law only apples to the workers that keep the system running. Those in government do whatever they please.
Nerd Rock
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=06ITNnBRveU
Sexy Nerd Rock
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uvpVyziILlM
I am out of town and am at a Cafe for breakfast.
I have driven there, so have the staff, and the products were delivered. Its winter here and the heater is on in an old building. So it probably took 10-15 times the energy I gained to deliver this energy to me. So I certainly didnt earn it did I. For anybody to think this can continue is bizarre; but of course everyone here is taking this for granted and not thinking about it. And of that I am, perhaps, a little jealous as they have plans for the future.
dont say a word—or you”ll be asked to leave
I’m removed future from my lexicon …
it would appear to me that we have been in an age of arbitrage since at least 1971. The traders have taken prominence in decision-making. The producers of products, information or knowledge have been subsumed by an avalanche of technology enabling the traders to profit from zero personal investment. Uber is the perfect example, but others abound. Trading in products from third-world slave labour/poor environmental controls in place of unionised first world another. It is easy to see how arbitrage has extended well beyond the financial markets.
‘Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset to profit from an imbalance in the price. It is a trade that profits by exploiting the price differences of identical or similar financial instruments on different markets or in different forms.’
Maybe the age of the internet has enabled less arbitrage in information / disinformation as the fake news of the ages has been exposed to the flickering light of day; the recent Ti.me mag photo fiasco comes to mind; caught out! Is this is why so many continue to stumble in the dark re-finite world issues, and cut through is hard to achieve; luckily I spose!!
Not to mention ‘triage’…
The plan seems to be to cut as many out of the system as possible. For example, look at Tesla’s plan to use robots to build cars, with little human help. It isn’t working, but the idea was to cut the non-workers out. Paying taxes gets left out in some cases (Amazon, before the recent tax ruling). Safety precautions and licensing gets left out as well.
here great video of 1929 in usa
in this video people are very happy and healthy compared to us
https://youtu.be/0FE30a4J38Q
btw this video is before great depression
ffffffffffantastic an absolute gem
just love it
now i know where Gabby Hayes got his first screen test
bbbbbut—bear in mind these folks are survivors—look up the list of incurable diseases back then—if you lived to those ages you were certainly healthy
My great grandfather died at the age of 19 from the spanish flu, leaving my grandmother fatherless at the age of 2. The family bible said of her birth that they expected her to die during the early days of her life. She lived to be 96, and one of the cheeriest people you could have met.
Good point
Just a note: the petroleum economy is usually considered to have started in 1930. The children of these folks were already commuting from the suburbs into the city by Model T.
Adding petroleum led to wage disparity, because some could afford the new devices and others could not. Tractors were beginning to be used in the 1920s. https://livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe20s/machines_08.htm The farmers who used tractors could produce food much more cheaply, and also a greater amount, than those without. The farmers with tractors were winners. So were city people who were able to buy much cheaper food. The farmers without tractors could not compete.
Nobel Prize-winning Economist Robert Shiller, The stock market today is similar to the market in 1928
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-stock-market-today-similar-stock-market-1928-204253341.html
They always say that, just to sell you some kind of investment.
Free trade, disputes of former “string-pullers”, EC, american dream, financial markets, “marathon bubbles”, emerging markets: Supporting pillars are staggering. My gut feeling is:
Predeterminded breakig points will buckl this summer. I smell the burning fuzes for violent musical chairs.
Saludos
el mar
“I smell the burning fuzes for violent musical chairs.”
Lots of burning dumpsters out there…….everywhere.
“Algeria has abandoned more than 13,000 people in the Sahara Desert over the past 14 months, including pregnant women and children, expelling them without food or water and forcing them to walk, sometimes at gunpoint, under a blistering sun. Some never make it out alive.
The expelled migrants can be seen coming over the horizon by the hundreds, appearing at first as specks in the distance under temperatures of up to 48 C…”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/algeria-desert-walk-gunpoint-1.4720446
A taste of the coming dark times……….
Chaos is flourishing everywhere.
I’ve just seen it on the news, if true the footage was a bit surreal, empty coaches parked in the middle of desert.. However, in a way it also put emphasis on the “all things relative” again, as Algeria and Libya now still seem as somewhat affluent countries, which can organized something like that in comparison to these migrants coming from/forced to return into even much poorer countries down in Africa.
NATO set to use this as an excuse for regime change?
Too many people. Europe is considering Albania as concentration camp for whoever wants to come to Europe.
The result of the bad humanitarian aid: They want more.
What they need is changing themselves, not the country.
Overruled … not allowed
https://www.nytimes.com/1990/06/14/world/islamic-party-in-algeria-defeats-ruling-group-in-local-elections.html
What does it mean overruled in the context of the given situation? The migrants are not from Algeria…
Is the Permian Barreling Toward a Breaking Point?
https://www.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=4321
Wood Mackenzie estimates that trucking crude from Permian to the Gulf Coast costs $12–14/bbl
That’s approaching what the actual cost of the oil should be to be able to grow the economy….
When so much energy needs to go into getting that shale out … I struggle to understand how this play holds together…
Are we not in a situation where we are burning more energy than we get out of the ground?
47% of Americans say their savings can’t cover 3 months expenses
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/budget-and-spending/2018/06/20/more-americans-ok-lack-emergency-savings-survey/715041002/
Harley-Davidson will move some production out of US after retaliatory tariffs
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/25/news/companies/harley-davidson-motorcycles-tariffs-trump/index.html
The United States Is Even More Broke Than We Think
The 2018 “official” U.S. debt figure of $34 trillion is 120% of GDP and projected to double as a percent of GDP within the next 20 years. It’s big.
If we add “off-the-books” net obligations like Social Security and Medicare, our all-in debt, or so-called “fiscal gap”, rises to $110 trillion, or 390% of GDP. It’s scary.
Raising taxes and reducing benefits won’t restore solvency. Something is going to break, and it won’t be pretty.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183557-united-states-even-broke-think
there is a collective refusal to acknowledge that debt can only be repaid by inputting energy
you take out a 25 yr mortgage—that mortagage is paid off by 25 years of work/energy input—it cannot be paid off with yet more loans.
same applies to government debt, when the oil runs out, as it is doing right now, debts will be unpayable.
the economic system will crash and the deniers will still insist it’s a hoax, but take ”emergency powers” to restore law and order, and that’s when the usa falls under the rule of a dictator
not that that will be your exclusive pleasure—it will have everywhere as fiscal systems crash and the mobs take to the streets
This isn’t exactly the case. Private debt and government debt are very different things. The debts will always be payable in currency until the computers power off, but there may be no goods and services available for purchase.
that’s not the way i see it
money value must always be underpinned by energy availability
as a householder defaulting on the mortgage (you lose your job), the results on you would be immediate homelessness
if governments default, they can hide the consequences for longer, but not forever……the nation itself collapses into economic meltdown
I talk about debt and debt-like obligations. Social Security and Medicare are in that category.
The goods and services made in each calendar year are very important, because they provide the food we eat, the fuel for our cars, and the energy used to heat our homes. They provide the resources needed to patch our roads and to create the medicines we use. Each year, we end up adding all of the elderly and disabled to the group that must share in the “goods and services made in the current year” category. Somehow, the government must reduce the amounts that other groups get (fewer road repairs, higher taxes on those working) so that the ones to whom promises have been made can receive their allotted share. This is one of the things that can be expected to break the system. The reason that there is virtually no balance sheet item in this regard is because these benefits are not guaranteed. In theory, they could be discontinued tomorrow. The catch is that any elected official who votes for such an outcome will never be re-elected.
I’m sure there are ways to cut equivalent amounts of spending without harming the elderly and disabled. For one thing, banning abortion and discouraging it for disable fetuses makes no sense. And a community/government partnership to fix roads, while revolutionary in concept, would save money. Zoning standards for buildings are absurdly expensive. A bureaucratic consciousness cannot keep costs down. An artist/third world consciousness could. But the first is held on to tenaciously, while the second is virtually prohibited. Also, cutting sensible costs to the elderly will only add extra costs to the system longer term. Then what’s up with school children sitting there by the millions, learning and doing nothing useful (that could save money)?
elderly people are meant to be dead
our current system is a temporary anomaly (except for me of course)
“our current system is a temporary anomaly (except for me of course)”
And I, and all oldsters I know feel exactly the same way. 🙂
there isn’t room , except for deserving cases
Peter Goodchild relates the story of a 60-ish prepper couple who were inquiring about escaping collapse by moving to rural Thailand. What would be needed to make such a transition? Could we fit in with the native population and make a go of it?
Goodchild replied that the first requirement was this- that they both have died 25 years ago- going on to explain that the average age of death of the Thai population in the area was about 40 years of age.
Oh wow….
I moved to an Asian country with similar intentions … although at the time I did not realize that it was the end of the world we were facing — I was thinking more of a place to ride out the storm until Great Depression 2.0 ended…
But then … as I began to understand the nature of the BEAST… I realized that as an outsider… in a country with a long memory of brutal oppression by whitey…. I was destined for the stew pot….
So we sold out and moved to NZ… less likely I will end up as Maori stew … because there are almost no Maoris anywhere near Queenstown …
Top Economist: America: The Future Looks Broke
Professor Laurence Kotlikoff from the University of Boston is, according to The Economist, one of the 25 most influential economists in the world. He says America’s official debt paints an untrue fiscal picture.
“The problem is the official debt is only the debts that politicians decide to put on to the books. Politicians are able and free to put whatever they want on to the books and keep other things off the books.”
What doesn’t get recorded is the value of all future government liabilities and the value of all future receipts, what he calls fiscal gap accounting. Future liabilities would be social security benefits, pensions, health care benefits and defence. These liabilities minus future receipts gives the true picture, Kotlikoff says.
“For the US, the fiscal gap is not $US20 trillion, which is the size of the official debt, but it’s $US200 trillion, ten times larger. So the country’s bankrupt.”
https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018632011/america-the-future-looks-broke
And then the $200T Titanic of liabilities smashes headlong into the icebergs of fossil fuel depletion and collapse of the western financial system.
Yes I agree that the U.S debt is bad but what country isn’t? Yes yes norway but they will soon collapse when every other country does as well. No country is an island in this system when Europe, China…..the U.S goes down it will bring the whole ponzi scheme down with it….so drink up!
Dick Cheney said deficits don’t matter, and so far he’s been proved right. Given that all commodities have to be paid for in US dollars, why wouldn’t that be so?
The money supply has to increase if the economy is going to grow. If it only increase through interest bearing bank credit then everyone will wind up in debt. The government needs to run a deficit, every year, in a fiat currency system. Fiat money is just points – there isn’t a “deficit” of anything.
The exact right amount needs to account for change in GDP. After all, if you produce a bunch of stuff and don’t print more money, the prices have to fall since at any given time all of our money represents all of our stuff.
Given his other notable exploits, Dick was apparently much closer to the real deal how things are organized behind the curtain as opposed to 99.9% clowns and actors known as high level politician and BAU daily operations tasked nomeclatura substrate.
Dick knew as long the US is the premier host entity for recycling the money spigot of this entire IC project, they in the US gov can do virtually anything without re-precautions, at least mentioning the short-near term ones. Any serious student of history knows it is exactly like that every time with similar setting..
You’ve pointed out the heart of the matter: Can production be increased or not?
It seems to me the answer is “yes.” But the functional reality is that it can’t be increased very much – the proof is that the concept of savings (i.e. future promises of all sorts) has to be destroyed. That maximum point at which production can’t be increased would correspond to the destruction of the value of savings (which we usually focus on the debt side of the conversation – every dollar of savings is a dollar of debt).
The wheels could fall off the wagon before then for financial system reasons or political pressures. It seems to me like we’ve decided to abandon old capital to allow the appearance of growth.
That’s very important point, thanks.
And that’s why only the authoritarian enclaves with prior heavy investments in infrastructure might aspire to prolong some of the IC aspects perhaps by few more decades, after the periphery evaporates, and most of semi-core and former core implodes. As they might have enough stored momentum (inside the infrastructure) to bridge/re-route the savings armageddon situation for a while.. Is it worth the effort, don’t know, depends on perspective.
The best argument that slow collapse is possible is that slow collapse has been happening for quite some time already.
The concrete supporting a bridge also slowly crumbles away, day after day, until it hits an inflection point and the whole thing falls into the river…
++++++++++++++
“Somehow, the government must reduce the amounts that other groups get”
They could start by vastly reducing the $1 trillion dollars that goes to the military industrial complex each year.
…$1 trillion down, $199 trillions to go.
The American Dream was only that. It ensnared a generation of people throughout the world who participated. The debt is the only real product the US has so don’t knock it. In fact take the debt away and try to have any GDP. Take the debt away and try to value Wall Street. Take the debt away and try to value your house. The entire system has been borrowed into exsistance and the time has come to pay the bill. Whoops hadn’t counted on that. Waiter quick another round for me and my friends.
lol. Clarifying too.
Pending a clearer way to state it, it I’ll call what goes on in the mind “qualitative,” and the material stuff “quantitative.” My aim in art is to just about halt the quantitative aspects of production, while growing the qualitative. I exhibit only where there is no fee to participate. Since I jettison an unusual amount of the quantitative, I can bring prices down to unthinkable levels. Very high quality, cost free materials.
Yeah like when I had finally taught my horse to stop eating and he up and died on me.
Was the problem qualitative or quantitative, or both? 🙂
😂
The U.S. can’t go insolvent in it’s own currency. The facts you point to are a sign of a problem, but are not a problem. Every $ of debt becomes a $ of savings. There can be no savings without “debt.” So our real problem is a savings problem – people saving money imagining it will have value in the future.
Debt is just fun because we get to be moralistic.
What might help is spending government money to increase aggregate demand, decrease unemployment (increase production of goods and services), and write off private and corporate debt.
Prices will rise, which reflects scarce inputs including oil and other resources. This can’t be avoided.
Banks using Lehman style tricks to disguise debt:
“Lenders use repurchase agreements — known as repos — to massage down their assets as reporting dates approach, typically as quarters end, the Bank for International Settlements said in its Annual Economic Report. The practice boosts leverage ratios — the ratio between capital and so-called leverage exposures — allowing banks to report them as being in line with regulatory requirements, it said.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-24/banks-may-be-using-lehman-style-trick-to-disguise-their-debt
“After rallying a bit in 2009, [Deutsche Banks’ stocks] recently hit a substantial new low of $11.00… That’s down 91.5% from its all-time high. This, again, only topped a by a few large banks in Italy. It’s a clear sign of trouble for Germany’s flagship bank, and will almost certainly go under in the coming years if it’s performing this badly now.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/deutsche-banks-stock-down-915-to-new-lows-201806242253
Ouch!
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/bail-out-6640324.jpg
Definitely in the “too big to fail” category.
“At a central bank conference in Portugal this week, the US Federal Reserve chairman said the case remains strong for more US rate increases – which means trouble ahead for those countries borrowing in dollars.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2018/06/emerging-debt-strong-dollar-troubles-developing-countries-180622194200677.html
“I see an emerging market meltdown is happening in real-time…”
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/the-meltdown-in-emerging-markets-has-just-begun
“Trade finance has been stagnant globally for some time, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.”
https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/iyJPHFdvbey7w7FrefLsUN/The-absence-of-trade-finance-threatens-global-trade.html
The regulation was meant to prevent defaults, but in fact, it tended to move them a bit later and make them larger, I expect.
If the world economy could get along without all of the other countries borrowing in dollars, this would not be a problem. But it is hard to believe that the US could “go it alone.”
“China’s central bank said on Sunday it would cut the amount of cash that some banks must hold as reserves by 50 basis points (bps), releasing $108 billion in liquidity, to accelerate the pace of debt-for-equity swaps and spur lending to smaller firms.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-rrr-cut/as-trade-war-looms-china-cuts-some-banks-reserve-requirements-to-boost-lending-idUKKBN1JK094
“By some estimates, [real estate] accounts (directly and indirectly) for as much as 30 percent of [China’s] gross domestic product… Despite reforms in recent years, there’s little question that Chinese real estate is in bubble territory. From June 2015 through the end of last year, the 100 City Price Index, published by SouFun Holdings Ltd., rose 31 percent to nearly $202 per square foot. That’s 38 percent higher than the median price per square foot in the U.S., where per-capita income is more than 700 percent higher than in China.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-24/why-china-can-t-fix-its-housing-bubble
This reminds me of Japan’s real estate, before its crash.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/japan-residential-urban-land-price-index-graph.gif
Japan Residential Urban Land Prices. Source: https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/japan/Price-History-Archive/House-price-falls-in-Japan-accelerate-755
And people thought the 1997 bubble was insane — prices dropped 70%….
http://stansberrychurchouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/pop-2018-02-05-image2.jpg
Equity is, to me, very much like debt. It can inflate in value to the point where its stated value has nothing to do with the cost of the items true value to the economy.
“A slew of negative factors — from the trade war with the U.S. to the risk of a credit crunch — has weighed on China’s financial markets in recent weeks. The Shanghai stock index is on the brink of a bear market after tumbling almost 20 percent from its recent high, while the speed of the yuan’s descent is blindsiding analysts.”
https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/2018/06/25/yuan-set-for-longest-losing-streak-since-2016-on-easing-outlook
Perhaps the crash is closer than most people think.
The Chinese did a great job of stimulating and bullying their way out of a stock market crash back in 2016. Something is clearly going to give somewhere soon though, as we simply have too many issues converging at once. I am struggling to think of one country that is growing apace without accruing excessive debt or having some other major financial problem. Even Switzerland is struggling with an excessively strong currency as investors look for safe havens.
“World debt ratios have spiralled to record levels during the era of super-easy money and markets are showing telltale signs of late-cycle excess, leaving the international financial system acutely vulnerable to a jump in borrowing costs.
“Any reversal in our fortunes could be “quick and sharp”, says the Bank for International Settlements, the global watchdog based in Switzerland and the scourge of dissolute practice…
“Governments are running low on monetary and fiscal ammunition needed to fight fresh shocks or to cope with recession… The rising US dollar threatens to set off a sudden liquidity squeeze and a rash of capital flight from emerging markets, now 60 per cent of the global economy and big enough to engulf the old world if unfolding events are mishandled.
“Banks have higher capital ratios and are safer than in 2007 but the risk has rotated to pension funds, insurers and asset managers overseeing $US160 trillion ($215 trillion) of global wealth – including $US45 trillion of shadow banking – now clustered in “crowded trades” with narrow exits. Any one of these scenarios could trigger a crisis. They might well combine.
“Global debt has risen from 179 per cent of GDP on the eve of the Lehman crisis to 217 per cent as emerging markets are sucked into the leverage sump…
“The emerging market debt ratio as a whole has jumped by 63 percentage points in a decade. There are already signs that the financial cycle is turning in several of these countries, including China. A long hangover awaits…
“World asset markets are already stretched. The BIS said credit spreads were “at or below” levels last seen just before the global financial crisis. The reality is that governments have little left in the arsenal if a recession were to hit soon. The BIS has long argued that central banks boxed themselves into a corner during the era of inflation targeting, letting asset booms run unchecked but then intervening massively to prevent the bust…”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/quick-and-sharp-the-global-economy-set-to-suffer-from-debt-hangover-20180625-p4znhe.html
“Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said there were already signs that “the ratcheting up of rhetoric” was weighing on investment. It comes as Donald Trump steps up hostility with some of the US’s key trading partners and allies, raising fears of a full-blown trade war.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/24/tit-for-tat-tariff-battle-could-spark-downturn-in-global-economy-bis
“President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to the United States’ trading partners on Sunday, calling on global economies to end to all protectionist barriers, or face a new round of retaliatory measures.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/24/trump-challenges-trading-partners-on-trade-barriers.html
“U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk of 25% tariffs on cars has Japan’s government and automakers scrambling to avoid a potential $21 billion blow, with little diplomatic leverage or room to shift highly globalized production networks to America.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-tensions/Trump-car-tariff-threat-sends-Japan-on-search-for-escape-route
“An industrial powerhouse built on massive exports and a gigantic car industry, Germany is among the nations most sensitive to mounting trade tensions between the United States and other major economies.
“US President Donald Trump has in recent weeks struck his first tariff blows at the European Union and China, who both vowed retaliation—risking a tit-for-tat trade conflict on two fronts that could weigh on the global economy, AFP reported.
“”Germany’s second economic miracle is over,” influential daily Die Welt wrote this week, comparing the years of steady growth since the financial crisis to the post-World War II reconstruction period…”
https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/88568/clouds-now-gathering-over-german-economy
Reminds a person of the effects of the 1930 tariffs that were put in place, back when there was not enough energy (really equating to jobs that pay well) supply to go around.
Did you see this article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-25/fed-just-made-its-most-hawkish-turn-30-years-did-anyone-notice
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn in 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
Jerome Powell made several comments in the press conference following the FOMC’s press conference after its most recent meeting. In the author’s view:
He’ll pop the mother of all bubbles….
https://www.wired.com/images_blogs/photos/uncategorized/earth_explodes.jpg
The three pyramids represent the three stars in Orion’s belt (Osiris). The Giza plateau (Mars) is an astrological site that marks the Summer/Winter Solstice and Spring/Autumn Equinox. The Sphinx marks the precession of the Zodiac which starts with the Regulus star in Leo and which takes 12,000 years to complete. The Egyptian civilisation bloomed in the age of Taurus, Judaism in the age of Ram, Christianity in the age Pisces and in 2012 we entered the age of Aquarius (The New Age Cult).
Astrology…As Above so Below.
http://www.irthsumer.com/site/bild2/pics/00115.jpg
The great pyramid has encoded phi, pi, Pythagoras, squaring the circle and the ratio between the earth and moon.
http://houseoftruth.education/images/teaching/mona_lisa/image39_great_pyramid_triangle_above_earth_moon.jpg
Well, that proves Norman didn’t build it, tho he’s old enough to have done so.
with a name like Adam—age is not something to be lightly debated
you dont get a knowitall badge by being born yesterday you know
oddly enough–that was the only badge i got while i was a boy scout—and even that was given to me by the girl guide leader
Hmm, in the boy scouts, eh? I s’pose you just enjoyed their Movement – all those ging gang goolies. 😉 What did you get your badge for – knowing how to bake a hedgehog and such like? Bet you never got a Blue Peter badge, tho.
They should give badges for killing and roasting rats… soon to be a very useful skill
Did she give you ….. anything else…..?
youll have to read my memoirs to find out
You should sell a box set… End of More + Memoirs…..
well I can’t write my memoirs till I’ve finished guiding girls
not about energy, but nonetheless an interesting discussion about the role of moral and instituitions in the economy:
http://evonomics.com/role-of-morality-in-a-capitalist-economy/?utm_source=newsletter_campaign=organic
I think that an economy always has to have a balance between the two forces–basically working together and competition. This is why religions and customs favoring working together rise at the same time that civilizations arise. How they balance out depends on the energy available. When energy per capita is not rising fast enough, or starting to fall in some places, competition plays a much bigger role.
Yet today it stands deserted and Indian banks have had to write off three-quarters of their loans, after selling the operating company to a specialist in distressed debt. Haircuts of that magnitude are now expected across the whole power sector in India, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, suggesting local banks face a new $38 billion wave of losses. That would be more than four times the $9 billion they’ve written off from a previous tide of bad loans from India’s troubled steel sector.
“It is the largest bad-loan risk in the country,” said Vinayak Bahuguna, chief executive officer of Asset Reconstruction Co. of India Ltd., the firm which bought the Jharkhand plant from its creditors in 2015, about two years after construction stopped. “Just as the banks are beginning to put the stress on steel accounts behind them the power accounts are emerging as the new pain point.”
India’s banks, which have some of the highest stressed asset ratios globally, are under mounting pressure from regulators to clean up their books as the government attempts to revive loan growth and boost the economy. That is likely to intensify the reckoning they face from lending to India’s power sector, which is plagued by fuel shortages and difficulties negotiating long term supply contracts with the country’s debt-laden electricity distributors.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/a-jharkhand-power-plant-could-herald-a-38-bn-a-headache-for-india-s-banks-118062500081_1.html
Higher energy prices, whether it is from rising coal prices, adding intermittent renewables, or rising oil prices, all stress the economy. Electric companies are likely to be as bad off as oil and gas companies. People who don’t understand the situation talk as if oil is our only problem.
Risks Pile Up Quietly in the US Corporate Bond Market
by Wolf Richter • Jun 24, 2018 • 8 Comments
The fear of becoming a “fallen angel.”
Companies whose credit rating is below “investment grade” can borrow in the capital markets in two ways: by issuing what is lovingly called junk bonds; and by issuing “leveraged loans.”
Leveraged loans are too risky for banks to keep on their books. Banks sell them, and they can be traded; or banks package them into Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), and they’re traded as such. Being loans, they’re not considered securities, but they trade like securities. They’re the booming sisters of the languishing junk bonds.
According to Moody’s, this is what has been happening with junk bonds and leveraged loans:
Junk bond issuance in the US plunged 52% in May from a year ago, to just $21 billion. Year-to-date, issuance has plunged 20% to $162 billion. The amount outstanding reached $1.27 trillion.
Leveraged loan issuance in May jumped 37% from a year ago to a record $88 billion. Year-to-date, leveraged loan issuance rose 2.4% from a record in 2017, to $363 billion. The amount outstanding rose to $1.45 trillion. This is the first year that leveraged loans have bypassed junk bonds.
Combined: As junk-bond issuance fell while leveraged loan issuance rose, combined issuance year-to-date fell 5.7% to $525 billion. The combined total outstanding amounts to $2.7 trillion.
The majority of companies is junk-rated.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/24/risks-pile-up-quietly-in-the-us-corporate-bond-market/
Another problem with rising interest rates
Not good at all! Energy companies of all kinds are affected, I expect.
19.30 mark
I feel much better now…”everything in this world is going to get better”
I was watching some rubbish documentary about the p..orn industry … and they had some loser who is apparently a top agent in the Miami scene… explaining how he gets endless responses to his ads for ‘young hot girls for p…orn’
Then they interview a couple of seemingly normal 18 year olds who have responded… who have gone off the deep edge and are making movies… as one of them says ‘I made $900 for 5 hours work – I am not going back to work as a cashier for $8.50’
This is what happens when a) we glorify Paris and Hilton and b) there are few decent opportunities.
Amber Heard doing her part:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2018/06/24/lena-dunham-sia-amber-heard-protest-texas-border-facility-for-unaccompanied-minors/
the Nobel Peace Prize surely awaits her…
breitbart?
Fiction, at best?
It is a interesting fantasy, but some believe it?
My heart is breaking … I am teary-eyed…
Where is Asia Argento the fil thy tramp?
Surely she should be on the scene handing Fentanyl -laced candies to the poor children…. then posting on FB about how she is putting them out of their misery….
https://ibb.co/hVrajo
Oil Executive: Industry Needs ‘Another Iraq Or North Sea’ To Meet Demand Growth
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Executive-Industry-Needs-Another-Iraq-Or-North-Sea-To-Meet-Demand-Growth.html
Another Iraq or North Sea..
Is this real life?
The global oil industry needs to find “another Iraq or North Sea every year” to plug the shortfall of oil supply as demand continues to grow,
Good luck with that..
Maybe Aliens will land on earth and teach the frackers how to beam oil up for pennies..
Is this just fantasy?
It seem LBNL has been given the job of tracking energy usage of all the worlds nations. They have a sophisticated understanding of energy its useful work and its waste heat.
“Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) is a Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science lab managed by University of California.”
so can they or will they shoot straight and give us the big picture of the declining surplus energy hidden within the new record high energy consumption?
They had asked for funding to calculate the cost of each and every source of energy. They were denied funding. Or at least they were denied funding under the white budget. Inquiring elites what to know, so maybe under the black budget.
I did not say they were doing ANY reporting of the supply side. In fact they are not.
No. Looking at tax revenue collected on energy of various sorts gives the best estimate of energy surplus that I am aware of. When the tax revenue turns negative, energy “sources” are really energy sinks. Taxes is one way net energy gets back to the economy. High wages of workers (both working in the energy industry, and made possible by cheap fuel) is another way that surplus energy gets back to the economy.
Rural Poverty In America Is ‘An Emergency’
https://www.npr.org/2018/05/31/615578001/report-rural-poverty-in-america-is-an-emergency
people find it difficult to come to terms with the fact that rural poverty has always been a problem
the never was a time of bucolic bliss in the countryside—for the lord of the manor yes—but the peasants have always been ground into the ground
DPs have this delusional view of hobby farming …. this was formed by reading about people like Scott Nearing … who never came even remotely close to unplugging from BAU and living the life of someone who farmed in the 1700’s…
People like Nearing gave the appearance of being unplugged — relative to someone who lived in the city …. yet he still used factory made tools …machinery….rubber hoses…. sealed roads … medicine… doctors…. cement… the list is endless…
A 1700’s farmer would look at Nearing with great envy ….
https://imgur.com/a/cOoaSZu
I think we’re at the beginning of a soft civil war
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-21/democratic-rage-would-look-something-like-this
I think we’re mostly through the soft part…And the fault lines are already there..
when the Dems take control of Congress after the November elections…
and when a Dem becomes POTUS in 2021…
things will be so much better!
like Voltaire:
it will be the best of all possible worlds…
Americans are cowards there will never be a civil war.
A hard civil war would be more entertaining
Att DPs…
Should I:
Build raised beds and start composting for the spring garden…. and think about pulling weeds…
OR
CALLING ALL POWDER HOUNDS! More fresh snow has added to what snowmaking have put down overnight. Pockets of snow all over the mountain. No weekend crowds, vis is great, just you and the freshies! Get up here and start your Monday off right.
https://www.nzski.com/queenstown/the-mountains/coronet-peak/coronet-peak-weather-report
I’m not sure. Just go with what feels best. Or ask yourself, “what would Elon do?”
You are making my point the few and the many. Party on FE.
I am still considering making plans to store up enough supplies to get me through the next couple of hundred years…
though I am bothered by the lack of response from any of the preppers who still read OFW…
why aren’t they giving me positive replies about my plans?
I am very confused…
signed, D.P. Wannabee…
Att DPs:
In this winter of austerity and Depression-era unemployment, a fog of woodsmoke hangs over the Greek capital on cold nights.
It’s coming from the tens of thousands of fireplaces and wood-burning stoves Athenians are using to heat their homes. Most can no longer afford heating oil, the price of which has risen 40 percent since last year. The government also cut a fuel subsidy for low-income families earlier this month.
Some Greeks buy cheap firewood; others used their discarded Christmas trees as kindling. The most desperate are burning old furniture and raiding protected forests. Someone even hacked away the remains of a 3,000-year-old olive tree where Plato is said to have taught.
https://www.npr.org/2013/01/22/169931378/under-a-cloud-of-austerity-real-smoke-clouds-greece-as-well
Let’s keep in mind … Venezuela nor Greece have collapsed… both are still plugged into BAU…
This is the limbering up phase…
Pre-chaos.
it must be really bad in Venezuela if the MSM aren’t saying anything about it…
I just came back from a trip home, and where I’m from in Greece, there is Z E R O sign of economic hardship. Actually, the place is booming! In fact, all of my relo’s there are doing it better than me! Lol.
For instance, my cousin Jim, married with two young daughters. owns a 5 bedroom house overlooking the Aegean, has three cars, a scooter and a fishing boat. Two of the cars are his wife’s! Featuring alternate odds and even plates, so she can park right in the centre of town any day of the week, when she goes shopping. Which is pretty much every day!
To hear him bleat on about how hard Greeks have got it due to austerity, the Troika etc. was pure delusion on his part. When I pointed out his circumstances, and how good he had it, he looked at me like I’d just killed his favourite donkey!
They were all like that, living in the lap of luxury, planning holidays to Thailand, America etc, and believing that thing’s were just so tough for them.
Interesting …
When I was in Athens during the height of the crisis… there were loads of boarded up shops…
Have they reopened?
Place is booming!
Perhaps they set up a Potemkin Village for your visit 🙂
Hardly, lol! All that ECB bond buying, coming home to roost.
’80s Babies Are Officially the Most Broke Generation
https://www.esquire.com/lifestyle/money/a20914326/millennials-born-1980s-most-debt/
And then the media blames the victims.. “Why aren’t Millennial’s buying diamonds?”
fortunately for them, they are still able to go into debt to enhance their lifestyles…
that’s right… they are lucky…
in the near future, we will be seeing a younger generation that is unable to borrow…
when that time arrives, they will really be screwed…
of course, the rest of us will be toast also…
Yes, half the population has below average IQ.
99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% is delusional… and not aware of it