BP recently published energy data through December 31, 2017, in its Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. The following are a few points we observe, looking at the data:
[1] The world is making limited progress toward moving away from fossil fuels.
The two bands that top fossil fuels that are relatively easy to see are nuclear electric power and hydroelectricity. Solar, wind, and “geothermal, biomass, and other” are small quantities at the top that are hard to distinguish.
Figure 1. World energy consumption divided between fossil fuels and non-fossil fuel energy sources, based on data from BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Wind provided 1.9% of total energy supplies in 2017; solar provided 0.7% of total energy supplies. Fossil fuels provided 85% of energy supplies in 2017. We are moving away from fossil fuels, but not quickly.
Of the 252 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) energy consumption added in 2017, wind added 37 MTOE and solar added 26 MTOE. Thus, wind and solar amounted to about 25% of total energy consumption added in 2017. Fossil fuels added 67% of total energy consumption added in 2017, and other categories added the remaining 8%.
[2] World per capita energy consumption is still on a plateau.
In recent posts, we have remarked that per capita energy consumption seems to be on a plateau. With the addition of data through 2017, this still seems to be the case. The reason why flat energy consumption per capita is concerning is because energy consumption per capita normally rises, based on data since 1820.1 This is explained further in Note 1 at the end of this article. Another reference is my article, The Depression of the 1930s Was an Energy Crisis.
Figure 2. World energy consumption per capita, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
While total energy consumption is up by 2.2%, world population is up by about 1.1%, leading to a situation where energy consumption per capita is rising by about 1.1% per year. This is within the range of normal variation.
One thing that helped energy consumption per capita to rise a bit in 2017 relates to the fact that oil prices were down below the $100+ per barrel range seen in the 2011-2014 period. In addition, the US dollar was relatively low compared to other currencies, making prices more attractive to non-US buyers. Thus, 2017 represented a period of relative affordability of oil to buyers, especially outside the US.
[3] If we view the path of consumption of major fuels, we see that coal follows a much more variable path than oil and natural gas. One reason for the slight upturn in per capita energy consumption noted in [2] is a slight upturn in coal consumption in 2017.
Figure 3. World oil, coal, and natural gas consumption through 2017, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Coal is different from oil and gas, in that it is more of a “dig it as you need it” fuel. In many parts of the world, coal mines have a high ratio of human labor to capital investment. If prices are high enough, coal will be extracted and consumed. If prices are not sufficiently high, coal will be left in the ground and the workers laid off. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, coal prices in 2017 were higher than prices in both 2015 and 2016 in all seven markets for which they provide indications. Typically, prices in 2017 were more than 25% higher than those for 2015 and 2016.
The production of oil and natural gas seems to be less responsive to price fluctuations than coal.2 In part, this has to do with the very substantial upfront investment that needs to be made. It also has to do with the dependence of governments on the high level of tax revenue that they can obtain if oil and gas prices are high. Oil exporters are especially concerned about this issue. All players want to maintain their “share” of the world market. They are reluctant to reduce production, regardless of what prices do in the short term.
[4] China is one country whose coal production has recently ticked upward in response to higher coal prices.
Figure 4. China’s energy production by fuel, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
China has been able to bridge the gap by using an increasing amount of imported fuels. In fact, according to BP, China was the world’s largest importer of oil and coal in 2017. It was second only to Japan in the quantity of imported natural gas.
[5] China’s overall energy pattern appears worrying, despite the uptick in coal production.
Figure 5. China’s energy production by fuel plus its total energy consumption, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
If China expects to maintain its high GDP growth ratio as a manufacturing country, it will need to keep its energy consumption growth up. Doing this will require an increasing share of world exports of fossil fuels of all kinds. It is not clear that this is even possible unless other areas can ramp up their production and also add necessary transportation infrastructure.
Oil consumption, in particular, is rising quickly, thanks to rising imports. (Compare Figure 6, below, with Figure 4.)
Figure 6. China’s energy consumption by fuel, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
[6] India, like China, seems to be a country whose energy production is falling far behind what is needed to support planned economic growth. In fact, as a percentage, its energy imports are greater than China’s, and the gap is widening each year.
The big gap between energy production and consumption would not be a problem if India could afford to buy these imported fuels, and if it could use these imported fuels to make exports that it could profitably sell to the export market. Unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be the case.
Figure 7. India’s energy production by fuel, together with its total energy consumption, based upon BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data.
India’s electricity sector seems to be having major problems recently. The Financial Times reports, “The power sector is at the heart of a wave of corporate defaults that threatens to cripple the financial sector.” While higher coal prices were good for coal producers and helped enable coal imports, the resulting electricity is more expensive than many customers can afford.
[7] It is becoming increasingly clear that proved reserves reported by BP and others provide little useful information.
BP provides reserve data for oil, natural gas, and coal. It also calculates R/P ratios (Reserves/Production ratios), using reported “proved reserves” and production in the latest year. The purpose of these ratios seems to be to assure readers that there are plenty of years of future production available. Current worldwide average R/P ratios are
- Oil: 50 years
- Natural Gas: 53 years
- Coal: 134 years
The reason for using the R/P ratios is the fact that geologists, including the famous M. King Hubbert, have looked at future energy production based on reserves in a particular area. Thus, geologists seem to depend upon reserve data for their calculations. Why shouldn’t a similar technique work in the aggregate?
For one thing, geologists are looking at particular fields where conditions seem to be favorable for extraction. They can safely assume that (a) prices will be high enough, (b) there will be adequate investment capital available and (c) other conditions will be right, including political stability and pollution issues. If we are looking at the situation more generally, the reasons why fossil fuels are not extracted from the ground seem to revolve around (a), (b) and (c), rather than not having enough fossil fuels in the ground.
Let’s look at a couple of examples. China’s coal production dropped in Figure 4 because low prices made coal extraction unprofitable in some fields. There is no hint of that issue in China’s reported R/P ratio for coal of 39.
Although not as dramatic, Figure 4 also shows that China’s oil production has dropped in recent years, during a period when prices have been relatively low. China’s R/P ratio for oil is 18, so theoretically it should have plenty of oil available. The Chinese figured out that in some cases, it could import oil more cheaply than it could produce it themselves. As a result, China’s production has dropped.
In Figure 7, India’s coal production is not rising as rapidly as needed to keep production up. Its R/P ratio for coal is 137. Its oil production has been declining since 2012. Its R/P for oil is shown to be 14.4 years.
Another example is Venezuela. As many people are aware, Venezuela has been having severe economic problems recently. We can see this in its falling oil production and its related falling oil exports and consumption.
Figure 8. Venezuela’s oil production, consumption and exports, based on data of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
Yet Venezuela reports the highest “Proved oil reserves” in the world. Its reported R/P ratio is 394. In fact, its proved reserves increased during 2017, despite its very poor production results. Part of the problem is that proved oil reserves are often not audited amounts, so proved reserves can be as high as an exporting country wants to make them. Another part of the problem is that price is extremely important in determining which reserves can be extracted and which cannot. Clearly, Venezuela needs much higher prices than have been available recently to make it possible to extract its reserves. Venezuela also seems to have had low production in the 1980s when oil prices were low.
I was one of the co-authors of an academic paper pointing out that oil prices may not rise high enough to extract the resources that seem to be available. It can be found at this link: An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits. The problem is an affordability problem. The wages of manual laborers and other non-elite workers need to be high enough that they can afford to buy the goods and services made by the economy. If there is too much wage disparity, demand tends to fall too low. As a result, prices do not rise to the level that fossil fuel producers need. The limit on fossil fuel extraction may very well be how high prices can rise, rather than the amount of fossil fuels in the ground.
[8] Nuclear power seems to be gradually headed for closure without replacement in many parts of the world. This makes it more difficult to create a low carbon electricity supply.
A chart of nuclear electricity production by part of the world shows the following information:
Figure 9. Nuclear electric power production by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. FSU is “Former Soviet Union” countries.
The peak in nuclear power production took place in 2006. A big step-down in nuclear power generation took place after the Fukushima nuclear power accident in Japan in 2011. Europe now seems to be taking steps toward phasing out its nuclear power plants. If nothing else, new safety standards tend to make nuclear power plants very expensive. The high price makes it too expensive to replace aging nuclear power plants with new plants, at least in the parts of the world where safety standards are considered very important.
In 2017, wind and solar together produced about 59% as much electricity as nuclear power, on a worldwide basis. It would take a major effort simply to replace nuclear with wind and solar, and the results would not provide as stable an output level as is currently available.
Of course, some countries will go forward with nuclear, in spite of safety concerns. Much of the recent growth in nuclear power has been in China. Countries belonging to the former Soviet Union (FSU) have been adding new nuclear production. Also, Iran is known for its nuclear power program.
Conclusion
We live in challenging times!
Notes:
(1) There is more than one way of seeing that energy consumption per capita needs to rise, despite rising efficiency.
One basic issue is that enough energy consumption needs to get back to individual citizens, particularly citizens with few skills, so that they can continue to have the basic level of goods and services that they need. This includes food, clothing, housing, transportation, education and other services, such as medical services. Unfortunately, history shows that efficiency gains don’t do enough to offset several other countervailing forces that tend to offset the benefits of efficiency gains. The forces working against unskilled workers getting enough goods and services include the following:
(a) Diminishing returns ensures that an increasing share of energy supplies must be used to dig deeper wells or provide water desalination, to operate mines for all kinds of minerals, and to extract fossil fuels. This means that less of the energy that is available can get back to workers.
(b) Governments need to grow because of promises that they have made to citizens. Retirement benefits in particular are an issue, as populations age. This takes another “cut” out of what is available.
(c) Increased use of technology tends to produce a much more hierarchical workforce structure. People at the top of the organization are paid significantly more than those near the bottom. Globalization tends to add to this effect. It is the low wages of those at the bottom of the hierarchy that becomes a problem because those workers cannot afford to buy the goods and services that they need to provide for themselves and their families.
(d) Increasing use of technology can often produce replacements for manual labor. For example, robots and computers can replace some jobs, leaving many would-be workers unemployed. The companies that produce the replacements for manual labor are often international companies that are difficult to tax. Governments can try to raise taxes to provide benefits to those excluded from the economy as a consequence of the growing use of technology, but this simply exacerbates the problem described as (b) above.
(e) The world economy always has some countries that are doing better than others in terms of GDP growth. These countries are nearly always countries whose energy use per capita is growing. Current examples include China and India. If world resources per capita are flat, there must be others whose energy consumption per capita is falling. Examples today would include Venezuela, Greece and the UK. It is the countries with falling energy consumption per capita that have the more severe difficulties. Our networked world economy cannot get along without these failing economies.
Besides the issue of enough goods and services getting back to those with limited skills, a second basic issue is having enough energy-based goods and services to actually fulfill promises that have been made. One type of promise is debt and related interest payments. Another type of promise is that made by pension plans, whether government sponsored or available from private industry. A third type of promise is represented by asset prices available in the marketplace, such as prices of shares of stock and real estate prices.
The problem is that promises of all types can, in theory, be exchanged for goods and services. The stock of goods and services cannot rise very quickly, if energy consumption is only rising at the per-capita rate. Even if more money is issued, the problem becomes dividing up a not-very-rapidly growing pie into ever-smaller pieces, to try to fulfill all of the promises.
(2) With respect to oil, the one major deviation from its flat pattern occurred in the early 1980s, when world oil consumption fell by 11% between 1979 and 1983. This happened as the result of a concerted effort to change home heating and electricity production to other fuels. It also involved a change from large inefficient cars to smaller, more fuel efficient cars. After the 2007-2009 recession, there was another small step downward. This downward step may reflect less building of new homes and commercial spaces in some parts of the world, including the US.
Peak World Oil Production (2021)
Dr. Minqi Li, Professor
Department of Economics, University of Utah
Source:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-energy-2018-2050-world-energy-annual-report-part-1/
https://imgur.com/a/VtIGd8U
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2021… wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwooooooooooowwwwwwwwwww…
that is great news…
my calendar says 2018…
do the math…
Yes, they use similar data sets, so they confirm OFWs US per capita energy consumption slide of ~15% for the ~2000-2020 time window, which is the most wobbly performance case out of any IC/G8 country documented there. And given how GDP is being massaged up, it’s probably much worse in reality.
Looking back the Russians were able to turn around ~25% slide in the 1990s, but that was so specific situation on many levels, that it’s bordering impossible the US could similarly “reborn from ashes” with anything like in -20-25% bracket, which currently seems to continue sliding into..
These peak oil guys settle on early 2020s now as the likely threshold for wider accepted panic (depletion + shale debt due), irrespective of possible plateau extension into mid late 2020s, so that’s again conforming with debate on this site.
Australia’s Debt Bomb
https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/01/31/16/59/bomb-2025548_960_720.png
`Home lending accounts for almost 80% of the national economy.
US first-quarter GDP growth revised down to 2%
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/us-first-quarter-gdp-growth-revised-down-to-2
Feeding the gods: Hundreds of skulls reveal massive scale of human sacrifice in Aztec capital
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/feeding-gods-hundreds-skulls-reveal-massive-scale-human-sacrifice-aztec-capital
My interpretation: The Aztec economy was about 200 years old, so old enough to have outgrown its resource base. It attacked other lands, presumably to get more resources. The people of the other lands were in some sense unnecessary. If some of them could be used as slaves, fine. Otherwise, they were unneeded. The extra land was needed by the Aztecs, as their own population grew. Sacrificing some of the unneeded people to their gods was a way of (1) reducing unneeded population, and (2) establishing who was in charge in the hierarchy.
I don’t know about the Aztecs, but I am currently in Peru, and the Incas are some tough people. My wife and I just finished a 4 day hike over a 15000 ft mountain pass, and trip to Machu Picchu. The Incas still living in the highlands live like it’s 500 years ago. They have stone or Adobe walls, thatched roofs, and cook over clay ovens. Potato’s are grown organically, they raise guinea pigs for meat. The whole place is crawling with llamas, alpacas, sheep, mules, and dogs. They make their own clothes from wool. About the only industrial goods I saw were sandals, knives, rope, and metal pots. If any people could survive the collapse, the Incas could.
My wife and I live in Ohio, and the altitude is no joke. Above 12 or 13k feet, breathing is really difficult. We got passed by many an old Inca woman carrying a large bundle and wearing sandals. Definitely ate some humble pie.
Sounds like a very cool trip!
And then there are those who instead spend their days pulling weeds… and stocking up at Walmart…
Its not exactly an “end of the world tour”, but we have been traveling quite a bit. I justify it to my wife (who tolerates my peak oil worldview, but only half-heartedly) by pointing out all of the people we know who have died young, or become too crippled to travel during retirement. At 38, the indignities of aging are just starting to appear on my horizon. They serve as a gentle reminder of the constant flow of sand into the bottom of my hourglass.
Setting aside ofw issues, to my way of thinking, to the extent one values life experiences, travel is money in the proverbial bank. Prosperity and health are never guaranteed, so you need to put them to use while you can.
That being said, I still have some beans, bullets, and Band-Aids set aside. One just never knows….😀
It’s beginning to look a lot like the asian financial crisis of 1997…..
Everywhere I go
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-28/india-central-bank-intervenes-rupee-crashes-record-low
If it is not the Asian financial crash, it seems to be a Euro problem, according to an earlier Zerohedge article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-19/why-soaring-dollar-will-lead-explosive-market-repricing-flow-chart
What I meant was in 1997… currencies came under huge pressure…. the IDR went from a peg of 3000 to 1 to 16,000 …. Indonesia imploded… Thailand imploded…. Hong Kong nearly imploded…
Exposure to US loans was the catalyst .. at least in Indo and Thailand….
I know of one Thai gem dealer who lost everything because he had USD denominated loans… and revenues in Thai Baht….
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/govt-economic-advisor-warns-british-defence-planners-that-growth-is-ending-abf806f17845
“A fascinating — if worrying — contention is that the peak growth rates of the 1960s were only possible at all on the back of a huge and deeply destructive exploitation of dirty fossil fuels; something that can be ill afforded — even if it were available — in the era of dangerous climate change and declining resource quality. Low (and declining) rates of economic growth may well be the ‘new normal’.”
This is a fantastic read..Another brilliant article by Dr Ahmed..
“Whereas for the global GDP per capita, the point at which growth disappeares is more than 60 years into the future, for GDP per capita in the OECD nations, the point is brought forwards dramatically. In less than a decade, on current trends, there would be no growth at all in GDP per capita across the OECD nations.”
Ludicrous… we’ve burned through just about all the fossil fuels we are going to ever burn … and nothing has happened….
Oh but I am told that if we were to continue that in 100 years or so we’d have a 2 degree temperature increase…. and we’d all broil…
Ya and in 100 years we will have fusion — and we will be able to live to 200… and George Jetson will be a reality …
Predictions about the long term future are easy to make … because nobody who is around now will be around to say you were wrong…
How convenient… 100 years we will be broiling …. how ridiculous
The Green Groopies have been burned making short term predictions over and over and over (7m sea rise predicted in Inconvenient Truth…) ….
It’s suspected that governments (or the US military) can control the we ather to an extent. You just have to look at the 38 degree about turn of Hurricane Erin on the morning of Nine/11, to stop it crashing into New York:
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/911-weather-map.jpg
My Filipino neighbours are loving our English he atwave, so perhaps the govt is doing it to attract im migrants from the hot countries to help sustain BAU. 😉
When you consider that the oceans cover two thirds of the planet, but nobody is burning stuff there, it does make you doubt the current popular theories. And most of the burning is going on in the cities, yet the area occupied by the cities of the world is dwarfed by that of the surrounding rural land.
Ahmed ends his articles with his standard nonsense:
“In a growth-obsessed world it is easy to end up overlooking the parts of the economy that matter most to human wellbeing. By understanding and planning for the conditions of the ‘new normal’ associated with low growth rates, it is possible to identify more clearly the features that define a different kind of economy. A simple shift of focus opens out wide new horizons of possibility.”
Yes, it is all so simple. Just shift focus to wide new horizons of possibility! Sure thing. Wish Ahmed would give some examples of these “wide new horizons”. Historically when growth rates fall the “wide new horizons” manifest in ways like disease, pestilence and starvation.
The Four Horsemen ( or Persons) need plenty of room for manoeuvre, hence the wide horizons.
Like Genghis on the Asian Steppes…….
Nafeez Ahmed goes over the top sometimes
I wrote this reply to one of his pieces a while back—that was over the top too—bo real substance to it
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/52d222e9.gif
I think he is working in partnership with tim over at Surplus Energy …. the end of growth is seen as a positive…
Bing bong….
I can’t speak for “Dr. Tim” but my impression is when pressed to voice conclusion, he is pretty grim about the outcome anyway. Perhaps you must read more diligently every bit of his forum posts..
I have read… he wrote an entire article on what he thinks comes next…. he has stated that we need to downsize .. that he is uncomfortable with the growth model… that we need to take the bus instead of owning private vehicles…
Tim is pretty good on analysing what is going wrong … but he fades into delusiSTAN when looking at what comes next…
Some people cannot handle the heat… Ugo Barfy is similar….
I know that, again above I wrote about his follow up remarks in discussions bellow the articles, and in more than one occasion it certainly wasn’t Ugo Bardi like, more like FE/TM albeit without the proverbial human flesh stew details..
Well, to be fair Ahmed only cited that concluding paragraph from Jackson’s paper.
But more importantly, if this is going to be used on the UN platform, as this dude might be the kind of calibre outlet, it seems though you bet someone already decided it would be beneficial to run with “OFW” issues in the open right around this time .. quite likely for pushing some specific agenda on governance, economy etc.
We can watch together if this is going to get some real traction or fizzle out in the dark abyss.
Gail read the actual CUSP report its 37 pages but worth the time, he takes things out of context.
https://www.cusp.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/WP-12-The-Post-Growth-Challenge-1.2MB.pdf
I can not help but think these elite that have captured all the fake paper tokens are doing us all a favour on a finite planet. Mostly what they ‘invest’ in already exists, they use the tokens to purchase shares, fine art, wine, vintage cars, historic homes, land, islands etc etc. Fewer new resources were mined, less extra energy burnt, there is a limit to what more a very small proportion of the population can actually purchase. I acknowledge some do buy huge new yachts and private jets etc. If this so called wealth or claims was redistributed more widely would there just be more claims made on the finite resources left and a whole heap more plastic tat manufactured therefore speeding us towards collapse? Humans clamour for more trinkets not that we spend our UBI on restoring soil and planting trees. I think we would have to understand what in terms of real finite resources the elite actually buy or are they just circulating paper amongst them selves buying paintings etc.I am beginning to think it will be a shortage of something real that will collapse the system eg oil, water, crop failure and not the mismanagement of paper claims. From what I have read the Romans got away with doing this for sometime, but it was climate change (no CO2 required) crop failure and energy decline (slaves and trees) that led to their collapse.
We have so over shot the earths carry capacity for humans and its resources, not to mention nuclear waste, I can not see that tinkering with who gets the tokens will fix anything.
CUSP is Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity. The group authoring this report clearly doesn’t understand the problem, based on its name.
Tim Jackson is convinced that declining growth eventually leads to no growth. It seems like a little more thought would show that it, in fact, leads to collapse rather than non growth? Didn’t he read the book “The Limits to Growth,” which he lists in his list of references? He manages to get the lead author wrong in his bibliography. He says it was Dennis Meadows; it was Donella Meadows.
In the abstract, he says,
He quotes Piketty in coming to this conclusion. Yet, if he had read a little more widely, he would have discovered clues from many fields (physics, anthropology, history of past collapses) that rising wealth disparity is a consequence of rising complexity, as diminishing returns sets in with respect to resources per capita (either population rises, resources fall or both). Adding more technology and more big companies inevitably leads to more wage disparity. Today, I was looking at the book, “The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century” by Walter Scheidel. This is one of the places he might look. Right at the beginning, talking about hunter-gatherers, Scheidel says,
A little common sense would suggest that growth is always needed, to offset diminishing returns, to repay debt with interest, and to keep up with rising population. Thus, inequality is necessary. It is impossible to get around these problems.
Jackson talks about EROI, but not about rate of growth of energy consumption. He shows this chart with respect to labor productivity of England:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/labor-growth-of-productivity-cusp.png
This chart shows a lot of similarities to the growth, by decade, of energy consumption, from a graph I put together. In other words, higher growth of energy consumption seems to correspond to labor productivity growth.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/21-slower-energy-growth-in-1981-to-2018-requried-falling-interest-rates.png
I comment in the above chart that slowing growth in energy consumption seems to lead to falling interest rates. It also seems to falling productivity of workers. The concern in the future is not that energy consumption will be flat, it is that it will start to fall. This will be a big problem, for interest rates and for productivity.
This is another chart that separates population growth from other energy use. It is really the falling energy that can go to the portion of the economy other than population growth that is the problem.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/39-the-economy-did-especially-well-in-the-1950-1970-period-did-very-badly-in-the-1930s.png
He is infected with the metal re tar da tion virus… there has no cure
As I said these UN affiliated guys are either just talk or part of some nebulous scheme.
Mark my words, sooner or late “OFW” topic will be taken up, lightly re-branded and misused for BAU extending agenda.. i.e. more tightening of screws as long as the resources last and the committees can control the levers..
Thanks for that W. Scheidel quote and reference.
Is that picture of Barbican or from 28 Days Later?
As Mexico oil sector sputters, crime and violence rattle industry towns
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-oil-violence-specialreport/special-report-as-mexico-oil-sector-sputters-crime-and-violence-rattle-industry-towns-idUSKBN1JO1U7
This new extreme right wing supreme court will definitely repeal roe v wade.
This could spark another civil war…
Stir the pot
Hey, late stage capitalism was never going to be fun.
Trump is just quickening the game a bit– possibly could be a good thing, as the Wall will come quicker– and the survivors (if any) might have more resources.
Beats an extreme left wing court.
Elon Musk calls Ford ‘morgue’, Ford fires back
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2018/06/28/elon-musk-calls-ford-morgue-ford-fires-back/741328002/?csp=chromepush
Elon’s Tesla Corp. is running out of gas (no pun intended). So, he resorts to name calling.
The most recent twist of the story how they build in two weeks new assembly line on their parking lot from giant tent-hangar structure is also hard to believe, but it’s true. It’s either just a show for the Q2/Q3 shareholder closely watched goals, or could be training facility for assembly line procedures so they don’t disrupt the ongoing shifts, while improving the pace of production, train people, setup robots, .. who knows..
As Munro spilled the insider beans in ~2017 the big biz/banks estimates total cost of ownership EV vs ICE car to be on par around 2018, which has been proven correct, at least in countries with high gasoline price/taxation. And as to the second important information that by ~2025 the big manufs will have the same margin on EVs as legacy econobox production is too soon to judge.
Too bad future electricity supply is as uncertain as future oil supply. The future of paved roads is also uncertain.
Correct, I’m speculating 25+ yrs into the future max here..
This is both long time or very short time, either for extended BAU or rapid deterioration.
12 months
So, you predict the real deal GFC (paradigm shifting) in next ~12 months?
That’s certainly possible, although we might get somewhat “milder series” of recessions GFC v_xy for years, as the global system and govs push the limits even further apply ing inventive financial-debt charades again. I’d say we must see some real deal debt jubilees and blockchain e-gov money first (cash ban, negative interest rates) before the ultimate meltdown though..
“I just came out of a meeting with two ministers of Finland. One was the Director of Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment of Finland. We were to discuss how to develop the battery industry in Finland. They openly discussed concepts like peak oil, hyperinflation, EU currency reset, Break up of EU into something else and the projection that we don’t have nearly enough minerals to make the desired quantity of batteries and solar panels. They even knew what ERoEI was.
Somebody pinch me!!!”
http://peakoil.com/generalideas/well-gosh
Solar panels and batteries? Sweet Jesus! They are totally clueless!
It will be interesting indeed to watch the situation evolve in the wider region of Scandinavia/Nordic/Baltica..
All things considered they certainly have one of the better position to deal with any upheavals given the pop density to resources, education, environmental awareness relatively speaking, sense of community and the prior path dependency of high energy taxation etc.
On the other hand the bottom line remains in the contrast to the above, nevertheless they are spoiled to a degree simply by the function as one of the richest region in the world.
you know funny thing is
Sweden is about to have water crisis in future
https://www.thelocal.se/20170720/swedens-water-shortage-what-you-need-to-know
Yes, it seems unusual for northern country, but it’s tied to recent trend of sub standard rain fall (snow fall/melt up) around Europe in general. There have been number of odd years in a row..
Plus you have got the negative effect of real estate craziness now “everybody” needs their own little house with watered lawn and giant pool, also frivolous agri exports of food and so on..
Second tallest people on Earth, the Danes are first– goes along with equality within the culture.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2004/04/05/the-height-gap
I wonder if rising population and rising industrialization have anything to do with the situation. In 1950, Sweden’s population was about 7 million; now it is about 10 million.
I know that when Atlanta (another wet place) had its water shortage a few years ago, one issue was that there was not enough water for the cooling towers for one of the nuclear power plants, without giving Florida an inadequate amount of water for some of its needs. If there weren’t so many people and so many power plants, there wouldn’t have been much of a problem (but the trees were somewhat stressed for a while).
This is close to correct explanation. Infrastructure is built for 8M, and we can barely afford to maintain it, much less expand.
There is water everywhere but pipes and pumps and cleaning is missing.
Yes, there is a drought this year, same as every now and then since forever. This effects farmers directly and indirectly everyone else through more imports.
Other than that, depending on from where and how you get your tap water you’re not allowed to water your lawn with a hose. Not like the police comes and fines you, only neighbours thinking less of you.
No, there is no chance in hell a scandinavian will die from thirst before or after the apocalypse.
News like this makes me question news about Venezuela, Syria etc … that doom news about Greece are mostly false I already know.
It will be no different — they will starve… eat each other … murder each other … and eat radiation … lots and lots of radiation … just like the rest of us
Green Groopieness does not make one immune
These “Green Groopies” there in the Nord have had proto capitalist society (maritime trade and coastal merchant cities) way before anything like that on the inner continent, that’s what I was hinting at.. And large part of this equation just “must” happened (as previously in eastern ClubMed) because of the happenstance of right conditions: short travel distance, each hub representing wider economic platform behind it (fish-metal Scandinavia, fur Russia, fine goods NGermany, etc.)..
The finnish seem very down to earth, they also talked openly about collapse in that movie about their nuclear waste storage facility.
The nordic countries will fare relatively well in coming decades, lots of energy/wood per capita, obedient population for government to coordinate, cold winters kind of put a cap on immigration.
Ya think so?
http://maptd.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/global-earthquake-activity-vs-nuclear-power-plant-locations.jpg
Oh I forgot to mention – the little blue dots … are nuclear power plants/spent fuel ponds….
Still population is at carrying capacity x4, at least x2 if you assume some kind of semi-modern agriculture. And no one knows how to farm and won’t try until after starving.
The vid on that link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=TFyTSiCXWEE
On topic
China Think Tank Warns of Potential ‘Financial Panic’ in Leaked Note
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-06-27/china-think-tank-warns-of-financial-panic-risk-in-leaked-note
I think a financial panic is likely in many places. It is one of those type of natural human emotions that cannot be forecast. Complacency or panic – the two modes of human behavior. Another reason I don’t believe we will have a slow controlled collapse. I think there will be a sharp discontinuity from where we are now to a state of abject poverty. I hope I am wrong.
It is not possible that you are wrong.
The camel’s back eventually snapped….
The fat man eventually exploded
Both Steve in Virginia and Ugo Bardi’s recent posts are great.
https://www.economic-undertow.com/2018/06/25/marx-to-debtonomics-part-two/
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/06/trump-takes-italy-by-storm-rise-of.html?m=1
From Steve’s latest article:
“The actual ‘job’ or purpose of labor in debtonomics is to act as a sink for First Law costs arising from expanding surpluses … This was true in Marx’ time (or Adam Smith’s) as it is now. In debtonomics, labor does not have to ‘produce’ anything (the product of labor is entropy), he/she has only to be underpaid for whatever efforts they might make! That is, the difference between what a worker actually earns and what would be earned under ideal circumstances (labor/productivity parity and competitive workplace) is creamed off to meet surplus management costs wherever they arise, especially debt service. What is The First Law?
The cost of managing any surplus increases along with it until it ultimately exceeds the surplus’ worth.”
This is why I like this gentleman. He can sum up profoundly interwoven things so effectively.
Bingo!
We have a winner.
Ugo ends his post with:
Otherwise, there seem to be a lot of similarities between the Italian leader Matteo Salvini and Donald Trump.
“Britain’s chief financial watchdog has warned that contracts worth trillions of pounds between UK and European Union banks remain at risk of collapse following Brexit, after Brussels’ failure to implement protective legislation.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/27/brexit-bank-contracts-worth-trillions-at-risk-says-finance-watchdog
“Italian debt sales are at their lowest levels since the height of the eurozone crisis six years ago, as the lingering political tensions weigh on investor sentiment.”
https://www.ft.com/content/32b68e46-79ed-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d
“The future of the European Union (EU) rests on the bloc’s ability to find a diplomatic answer to the migration crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday.
“EU leaders are meeting in Brussels, Belgium on Thursday and Friday to try to wrangle a solution on migration, with the issue leaving Merkel’s own political fate hanging precariously in the balance.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/28/europes-migration-crisis-is-make-or-break-for-the-eugermanys-mer.html
as long as the EU could absorb workers and find productive work for them to do, then there was no problem
but not it’s becoming obvious that the eu can no longer do this, so immigrants form a dead weight on the rest of society
the eu was created on the basis of infinite prosperity—unfortunately it’s becoming obvious that prosperity isn’t going to last forever, and there won’t be enough to support existing eu citizens.
I’m afraid it’s worse than that, and in recent years such “dead weight” on economy was in fact looked upon in cold blooded fashion as source for placing the stimuli for further growth of aggregate demand, basically borrow the money and let them consume it, not expecting any meaningful work out of them, no nothing. Because the demography of core consumer group (of natives) was lagging for long time not taking any new debt anymore.. And this has been likely much pronounced case in France in comparison to Germany, which however jumped on the bandwagon aggressively say in past ~5yrs as well.
The quantity of debt sold needs to be increasing to have a positive impact on the economy. Shrinking debt has hugely negative impacts on the economy. Of course, there is the (possible) benefit of reduced interest payments, but this is more than offset by the negative impact of reduced demand. If this reduced demand occurs on a large enough basis, it likely leads to commodity prices.
The forecast is that derivative contracts related to interest rates will not hold up.
It is not clear that when solvency tests of banks are done, regulators really test the derivative portfolio.
“We’re hitting the panic button here… globally inflated debt is threatening to go ‘Boom’… And there is no escape route available for the GCC, Middle East region, as well. This is a growing multi-faceted international problem that will make the 2008 financial crisis look like a walk in the park, and it’s not going away.”
[Worth reading in full as it gives a nice overview of the Middle East’s economic situation]
https://ameinfo.com/money/economy/debt-economic-crisis-gcc/
Deputy Head of UNRWA’s Workers Union, Amal Batch, warned yesterday that up to 1,000 [Palestinian] employees are expected to lose their jobs due to the financial crisis hitting the international organisation, Al-Resalah newspaper reported. Batch said that the emergency programme, which includes food assistance, temporary work opportunities and others, is at stake due to the financial crisis.”
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180627-gaza-1000-unrwa-employees-to-lose-their-jobs/
“Lebanese President Michel Aoun said the Syrian war and regional turmoil were forcing his country to pay more than it can afford.”
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1329451/saudi-arabia
“On Wednesday, the government spokesman, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht called on diaspora Iranians to “bring their money to Iran” and urged all Iranians to invest their cash and gold into the economy.”
https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-economic-crisis-calls-for-popular-help/29323581.html
From the article:
“According to the Brookings Institute, for the 2015–2017 period, the GCC accumulated an estimated $353 billion in fiscal deficits, $76 billion in current account deficits, $270 billion in foreign-exchange reserve losses, and a reduction of $213.3 billion in sovereign financial net worth.”
“Emerging market assets sustained a fresh blow on Wednesday, with mounting concern over the escalation in the Washington-led global trade battle. JP Morgan’s emerging markets currencies barometer has fallen every day this week…”
https://www.ft.com/content/1396f444-79e6-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d
“The next global financial crisis would be caused by higher interest rates, not trade tensions or geopolitics and political factors, said Samy Chaar, chief economist of Lombard Odier, a Switzerland-based private bank, yesterday.”
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/Economy/30348771
“Liquidity will be in outright contraction soon, analysts say… That whooshing sound you hear is the draining of $1.4 trillion worth of global liquidity.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/on-the-qt-markets-are-being-roiled-by-quantitative-tightening
“”India’s rupee is the latest currency to be dragged down by fears that a trade war could hurt global economic growth. The rupee dropped to a record low against the US dollar on Thursday, a slide fueled by fears over trade conflicts and higher oil prices that could drag down the major energy importer’s economy. The stronger dollar and expectations of higher US interest rates were also major factors in the rupee’s fall.”
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/28/investing/india-rupee-dollar-exchange-rate-low/index.html
“Currencies, stocks and bonds in developing nations are closing out their worst quarter since 2015 and facing a looming trade war, tightening U.S. monetary policy, elections in Latin America and a weaker global growth outlook.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-28/emerging-markets-ending-lousy-quarter-in-shadow-of-trade-war
Ouch!
“China’s expansion looks to have slowed further this month, underscoring the fragility of the world’s second-largest economy as the next wave of tariffs in the trade dispute with the U.S. approaches…”
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/06/27/china-succumbs-to-slowdown-as-trade-and-debt-curb-drag-on-growth
“A leaked report from a government-backed think-tank has warned of a potential “financial panic” in the world’s second-largest economy…”
https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/china-think-tank-warns-of-potential-financial-panic-in-worlds-second-largest-economy/1223662/
“Global stocks weakened again Thursday, with shares in Asia falling to the lowest level in nine months, as investors continue to count the cost of trade tariffs and protectionism among the world’s biggest economies. The market’s sentiment was further soured by signals that growth is starting to slow…”
https://www.thestreet.com/markets/stocks-weaken-on-trade-war-concern-amid-signs-of-slowing-global-growth-14636572
At the recent BioPhysical Economics meeting, Prof. Feng talked to me about whether I could visit China in the next few months to teach again at Petroleum University of China. I don’t have a formal written invitation. Whether or not I would go could very well depend on economic conditions. This, and other, articles don’t give me a lot of optimism. Also the recent falling yuan.
It is difficult to make plans, although I’m personally inclined just to crack on and book things. You can always chicken out and feign illness if the portents bode ill nearer the time.
We do appear to be running out of road though. We really need to hope that Trump calms down his trade rhetoric and the Fed finds an excuse not to continue putting rates up or we will find ourselves in hot water before the year is out IMO.
Tell them you need a private jet … otherwise no go
“Add Kazakhstan to the list of oil producers whose supply is restricted.
“The central Asian nation’s output slipped by about 240,000 barrels a day between Sunday and Tuesday, data from the country’s Ministry of Energy show. The cause and duration of the dip aren’t known, but the country suffered a few supply outages earlier this year involving the giant Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea.
“The reduced output comes at a time when several countries are pumping less. Venezuela’s economic crisis has brought with it a plunge in oil production, while fighting in Libya has cut flows through two key ports. Angola and Canada are also down, while the U.S. is pressuring buyers of Iranian crude to cut purchases from the Persian Gulf country to zero with tanker tracking showing that the measures may already be working.
““Disruption in Kazakhstan adds to a growing list of outages,” said Jan Edelmann, an analyst at HSH Nordbank AG. “We expect to see further outages from here as not just Iranian and Venezuelan output fall. There are rising risks for Angola, Libya and Nigeria as well, so risks to prices are to the upside.”
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/06/27/kazakh-oil-output-dips-as-list-of-disrupted-producers-lengthens
At one point, Kazakhstan was nicknamed “cash is gone” for all the money sunk into oil production, before there was any actual output. I would suppose this implies more complexity than average. Failure rates are high for complex systems without redundancy.
Lol – that is apt. Kashagan has been a logistical nightmare – almost as bad as trying to drill the Arctic, battling icebergs, Siberian gales, tidal shifts etc. This article from last year says they went 10 times over budget!
http://crudeaccountability.org/kashagan-oil-bubble-project-failures-consequences/
$50B…. gone https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-giant-kazakh-oil-project-went-awry-1396233341
I wonder what Paris has to say about all of this?
Perhaps Justin and Kim could also weigh in….
https://youtu.be/eFRHX6glTSM
Wonderful!
This is an excellent article— I feel very good having read it… I may have a bottle of champagne tonight to celebrate…. yes… I will do that….
So when do we get the first spark? All we need is a single bullet to get the party started…. when do the full on street brawls get underway???
CNN … get READY to RUMBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLe…..
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/while-many-on-the-right-are-sleeping-many-on-the-left-are-promising-to-bring-war-to-the-streets-of-america
tmosley Yukon Cornholius Wed, 06/27/2018 – 20:42
Are we sleeping, or are we looking on in bemusement while we clean our many, many, many guns?
Bravo!!! Bravo!!! Open fire asap
J S Bach The First Rule Wed, 06/27/2018 – 21:34
Like I stated in a previous post… America will see its own version of Weimar Germany. But, remember this… the Brownshirts – once fully enraged and bound by a determination to end the chaos and insanity of their own “Left” – soundly defeated the communist wretches both in the streets and at the ballot box. And once they held power in an iron grip, they moved on to deal with the (((forces behind the scenes))) who caused it all. Within the span of a year, they had turned their country around both economically as well as spiritually. Believe all of the victors’ dubious post-war myths if you will, but the fact remains that while an organized band of mature, honorable and focused men held the reigns of power, there was order, harmony and true prosperity the likes of which few nations have ever experienced.
YES!!!! Bring it ON! (asap)
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker&page=3
Has Maxine thought through how dumb it is on a personal level to egg on this sort of crap, legal or not?
See, Maxine lives in a nice, safe, “blue” area and she has plenty of money.
But everything she consumes comes from or via a hard “red” state or region.
Corn, wheat, chickens, beef, pork, milk, cheese and on and on and on.
Electricity. Gasoline. Piped (natural) gas.
Water.
A huge percentage of the truckers are in fact “red state” folks.
Without them Maxine starves.
Without them her “motorcade” of protection has no gasoline to fuel their cars or SUVs.
Without them her plane has no jet fuel.
Without them her toilet does not flush and her lights do not work.
Want to go there Maxine? Really?
What you’re advocating for here is factual civil war. Not a shooting civil war (yet anyway; she might impress me yet), but civil war nonetheless. You’re not just advocating for it you’re cheering on the first pieces of it that are happening right now.
Except the losers, and it won’t be the red state folks, won’t die from bullets.
They’ll starve.
They’ll freeze, or sweat themselves to death in 90 degree heat with zero A/C since there will be no power.
They’ll die of thirst or wallow in their own **** that they cannot flush.
There will be no cellphones, no Amazon and no eBAY — since there will be no power and thus no Internet either.
Think not?
Well how do you think you’re going to get what you want then? You see, you can’t exactly force wheat out of the ground, nor corn, nor oil. You can’t force someone to drive a truck. Oh sure, you might be able to find some replacement drivers, maybe, if you can find any of your fine blue friends who don’t think it’s beneath them and aren’t stoned and thus can’t pass a drug test.
Maybe you can ask Illegal Jose to drive that truck? He’ll probably run you over with it as he’s juggling the bong and vodka bottle while attempting to do so!
Then what?
This isn’t speculative or an apocalyptic novel any more. It’s here. We’ve already seen a nutter shoot up a Republican baseball practice — and remember, he specifically asked which party’s reps were on the field before shooting. That wasn’t random at all.
How many more nutters just like that did Maxine Waters gave marching orders to?
Will those who are targeted shoot back? If we must, I’m sure we will. Oh, and we know how to shoot too — most of the nutters don’t. That’s why they tend not to do so good on their score in what would otherwise be a slaughter.
But no, this is not likely to be a shooting war, at least not initially. Oh sure, there will be crazies who think that’s the answer to being “triggered” by Sanders walking into a restaurant. But most of them will instead just tell her to leave and then preen around on social media about how “powerful” they are.
Exciting… entertaining…
Who says More has to end …. more insanity… more madness… more crazies… more bickering … over the end of more….
Welcome to third world living ya’ll….. seems ya don’t like it ….
Next up on the empathy tour… what it is like to be shunted off to the abattoir …. and slaughtered…
at least you know how to put the stun gun to your own head
We’re probably at peak housing. Here’s what that means.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-probably-at-peak-housing-heres-what-that-means-2018-06-27?link=sfmw_tw
From the article:
“For the handful of economists calling the present moment a cycle top, it simply means that from here on, sales will stop growing, and possibly even decline, as will home prices.”
Note that home prices go down, with less housing, not up!
I have my own theories on the dumbing down of America, but they are too controversial to be posted here. You guys, despite your intelligence and embrace of collapse, simply aren’t prepared to be taken down this rabbit hole.
But I’ll summarize it as thus: the powers that be needed and wanted a dumbed down populace, so they used every tool available to them (mainly in entertainment/media) to make it happen.
The goals were the following:
1) defeat the Soviets at any cost, secure the Middle East at any cost; so the average man had to embrace dollar capitalism even if it was making him poorer, and embrace empire even if he was the cannon fodder
2) increase the population, naturally immigration and racial division would lead to depressed wages and lack of social cohesion, making it easier to exploit them and prevent any challenge to the American capital empire
So basically the imperial/capitalist state took complete control and never relinquished its iron grip. I say that you guys can’t handle this, because in your core you are imperialists and capitalists (proving my point). None of you are nationalists or socialists anymore.
But such control and dominance is the surest path to a collapse of our system of systems, as well as to a dull life.
White Helmets are helping Syrian militants prepare ‘false flag’ chemical attack – Idlib residents
https://www.rt.com/news/431099-white-helmets-false-flag-chemical/
Fool me once…hell you can fool Americans a million times..
They told us a guy living in a cave attacked us on 911..LOL
you can’t make this stuff up..
High school students are having sex at the lowest rates in decades
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/high-school-students-are-having-sex-at-the-lowest-rates-in-decades-2018-06-14?link=sfmw_tw
Just like what happened in Dr Calhoun’s mice utopia experiments..
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/
https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/22514/1/2308Ramadams.pdf
Thanks! I especially like the middle article:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/
It says,
This is the same hierarchical behavior that brings down human economies as limits are reached. Living space may be one of the limits.
Also, there is a chart shown in the video attached to the article I quoted that looks very much like a piece of my Secular Cycles chart:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/population-growth-shown-by-secular-sycles1.png
In fact, it has a definite flat top on it before the animal population crashes. Does anyone know which of the many references given in the article actually have the full graphs of what happened in those studies?
Perhaps they are getting off watching porn online instead….
The dollar’s status as the world’s funding currency is in question
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollars-status-worlds-funding-currency-question-144437776.html
Toys r Us giraffe saying goodbye one last time..
https://imgur.com/a/IUQSqFD
That makes me think: what is Toys R Us? What is Ford? They are just names really. Legal terms on a piece of paper. The natural world knows nothing of Ford or Chrysler or Toys R Us. The building is real. But any name can be put on the building. Toys R Us really never existed outside of human imagination so how do you say goodbye? Just really weird when you think about it. It amazes me that these corporations are just really legally protected trademarks on pieces of paper yet the Supreme Court recognizes them as “people”.
Scientists say humans are alone in the universe
https://nypost.com/2018/06/26/scientists-say-humans-are-alone-in-the-universe/
The book “Rare Earth:Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe” seems to strongly hint at that situation as well.
Thanks Gail! There was also this article from Business Insider that talks about it.
The likeliest reasons why we haven’t contacted aliens are deeply unsettling
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-aliens-have-not-contacted-humans-2015-9
I think there is almost certainly other life in the universe. However, it is very likely much different than Human life here on Earth much like we are much different from dinosaurs. Imagine for a moment how different we are from dinosaurs and we both evolved from the same planet. Now imagine a planet in another solar system with completely different conditions – how alien would that life be to us?
all higher life forms seem to have eyes and four limbs
these seem neccessary to see where youre going and to grab food
in that respect dinosaurs were like us
if those prerequisites arent present, then those without them seem to spend their time crawling around looking for food
obviously sight and grasping can take many forms, but they do seem to be essential
Dolphins are pretty clever and ought to be classed as a higher form of life. They just haven’t figured out how to start a fire underwater using only noses and flippers yet.
All life must follow the principles of dissipative structures. Through self-organization, it must organize to produce more and more energy density. This means it must gradually rise from one-celled to multi-celled to increasingly complex structures. Humans are different from other animals in that they have gained command of the energy of burning biomass and other fuels. This has allowed them to dominate other animals and thus achieve ever more energy density. If there is intelligent life elsewhere, it must have done something similar. Even if it could become intelligent without doing this, it would need this characteristic to be more than a tiny fraction of the planet’s life. Certainly it could not travel to other planets without the harnessed use of energy.
Is a Second American Civil War Likely? 31% of Americans Think So
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/is-a-second-american-civil-war-likely-31-of-americans-think-so-1.6219582
don’t waste your time….Baby I work with a guy that listens to talk radio all day long……everything is a political football for him…he is a moron…I try to get him to read this blog and others but will only read drudge…and even that is a stretch as he has macular degeneration….won’t go to the Dr. because he is broke and don’t want to support obamacare….. I suggest you read how to lie with statistics as this does not to look to be a very scientific survey….
I suggest you buy him a cream filled donut … and stuff a nice big wad of Fentanyl into it…
He needs to be put out of his misery
”Econimica is Eco-no-more-ica”
Hambone is taking a break again(?)
Website is pretty empty. More than one person has discovered that it is hard to make a living writing blog posts. Or the run out of ideas. They move on to something else.
Yes, but normally they just leave the posts there. This is at least the third time Hambone has quit.
Yes, it’s sad. It was certainly part of the wider OFW circle brotherly sites out there..
I appreciate among other research how he often hammered down the bleak Asian demographic prospects of the core consumer group, that’s basically the borderline outlier for the most optimistic BAU scenario petering out ~2025-35..
yes, 2035 is pure optimism…
2034 is much more likely…
Maybe he realized how energy and population are interconnected and that the exhausted and declining populations are the sign of running of the easy and cheap energy.
That realization may have caused him to noose himself from a tree….. some people do not deal with hot kitchens very welll
Oil stocks drop by nearly 10 million barrels: EIA
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-eia/oil-stocks-drop-by-nearly-10-million-barrels-eia-idUSKBN1JN1ZV
This is what a chart looks like. Oil stocks had been dropping, then abruptly flattened. Now they look like they are starting to fall again.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/weekly-ending-stocks-of-crude-oil-through-jne-22-2018.png
Gail—
I think your analysis of oil not rising for long is going to be tested—–
Until Permian issues can be solved (or not) next year, it looks like oil will continue to increase.
We shall see-
Assuming we are starting to hit a bottleneck on oil production … I see these higher prices as a symptom of that situation … if more production cannot be brought online … then prices will continue to rise … and as in 2008 … the economy will snap under the pressure….
Gail will be right – oil prices will collapse… and the CBs will be powerless to float boats this time around…
And
https://youtu.be/gBzJGckMYO4
What about the printing press? It worked for Weimar…. /s
The Goldilocks zone between affordability and profitability has closed. That is all that one needs to know to understand that growth is over. Without growth the system falls apart. My biggest concern is that some crucial part of our financial and economic system will fail – cutting off credit and leading to panic and a rapid unwind of industrial civilization.
Oil price is sky rocketing! Looks who back.. Peak oil part two! Like a phoenix rising from the ashes! WTI 72.28
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/1‘
RIP 7 billion
And the price will drop back down once it hits the consumer’s price ceiling. Rinse and repeat until it can’t anymore.
at this rate, it will be up $200 in the next 100 days…
wow…
$270 oil…
or…
this trend will end like all trends do…
namuench>
The mighty legacy system around us can evidently still compensate this process you describe of ongoing relative impoverishment. Specifically, for the new generations the following is getting mainstream: living in the basement with parents, no regular or substandard job/occupation (to form a standalone family unit anyway), escapism running amok through cheap-free “virtual reality” be it action console/computer games, +immersion inside the online domain (ytube, asocial networks), recreational mind altering substances; while less frivolous real world car driving, less frivolous consumer big item buying and or keeping temporary facade of sustained consumerist levels through imported plastic crap via recycling, off shored places of production for as long as it lasts etc.
In summary it’s a process of delaying most of the negative aspects of sinking prosperity per capita, understandably at some point facing abruptly the naked reality is going to be very ugly..
Now here comes the question, is it going to be more of a singular global event threshold or more of a step wise and regionally differentiated process? I’d argue the latter, although there are some/many aspects of our life and economy, which exist already as JIT exclusively only, can’t be tweaked or altered anymore. Specifically, the car and electronic appliances, that’s were assembly lines are supplied as frequently several times per day, there is no proper warehousing at the plant of final assembly nor at the ring of secondary or tertiary suppliers. Other “JIT heavy” soaked industries include parts of the pharma, food, some public transport, ..
Hence, I use the term “frivolous consumption” a lot to simply stress the point we might get a near-mid term transitional period (to nowhere anyway) which cuts most of the frivolous stuff while it might secure basal organizational level at least for some societies, regions, circling the wagons for the “noble goal” of feeding people somewhat and keeping the most dangerous epidemics at bay. It’s going to be small fraction out of today’s core IC (~2.5B) people though, i.e. few dozen millions per continent, who knows, in another words very very tiny fraction out of the whole global population.
That’s an optimistic scenario applied for limited number of people and limited time span with %ish probability, other more likely scenarios with much higher %% might include some traits of the above, but more or less securing the last functioning aspects of modernity strictly for the state/mil. apparatus, most of the rest of society dying out quickly and or yoked (early through the collapse stages!) into direct feudal/slavery status.
Lots to consider here. How do you see decentralization helping, or not?
“which exist already as JIT exclusively only, can’t be tweaked or altered anymore. Specifically, the car and electronic appliances, that’s were assembly lines are supplied as frequently several times per day, there is no proper warehousing at the plant of final assembly nor at the ring of secondary or tertiary suppliers. Other “JIT heavy” soaked industries include parts of the pharma, food, some public transport, ..”
We have the roads already. Can’t we just try maintaining them so as to preserve the JIT delivery system?
There seems to be no way forward or backward, which would suggest keeping (along with a high level of tweaking) current systems going just the way they are? An era of maintenance and repair.
Above I meant – tried to look at JITs as listed from their most evolved advanced state to lower complexity (older ver) as to whether there is something theoretically salvageable should the overall system sustain sudden much reduced throughput of energy, information, people/talent etc.
And unfortunately, in reality, it looks like the recent ~35yrs and especially the very last +20yrs have completely redesigned many specific industries to the core. JITs are not only defined by the “warehouses on the wheels” function, it’s also the delegation of duties, offshoring even much of the design, R&D work to these suppliers per given field of specialty. Hence if there is a rift in the overall structure, the final complex product can’t be put together at the central assembly point, because there are no tools, no brains to do that anymore..
Assuming some more authoritarian countries facing this task, especially those, which have in recent memory situation of imposed sanctions, invasions etc. one would assume they have some of their core JITs strengthened by backups, warehousing parts for critical infrastructure parts be it for the military, transport, extractive industries and energy utilities, core public infrastructure rerouting options, and so on.. /Another option is to have long term protective and trade deal with your technological superior partner, situation balanced out by his junior position/capability on defense etc. We know of examples like that from current world relationships../
In their realm, they can withhold some of the frivolous consumerism, because they purposely did not allowed it to metastasize in the first place, but keep the lights for some time at the hospitals and mil industrial complex sites, “re-starting plateau” from that. I guess this difference will be the major fault line across the globe, and even many people with some token knowledge into OFW issues would be greatly surprised which regions would render immediately helpless and cascading into further collapse vs others able/attempting to put temporary floors/stages to the collapse.
Decentralization of some functions is good as long as you still happen to be under the wider protection umbrella of strong/er cohesive state unit (and or extraordinary beneficial natural boundary), otherwise it means trend toward sub regional fragmentation, basically a rehash of the historical analogy of smallish duchies and mini kingdoms, and that’s constant war further depleting resources, hampering effort to setup any potential step and floor through collapse stages.
In total this might for some sound too speculative and not worth the attention since we possibly can’t argue against the basic law that very advanced civ must collapse/reduce complexity in adequate measure as well, i.e. collapse accordingly quite fast. Nevertheless, I’m of the opinion that span of few decades (and what to do/expect) still counts within single individual lifespan or looking after the immediate family.
Fascinating! Somewhat over my head, but I can see all the issues I am interested in understanding better. It all makes potential sense pending some better level of synthesis on my part.
“Another option is to have long term protective and trade deal with your technological superior partner, situation balanced out by his junior position/capability on defense etc. We know of examples like that from current world relationships..”
A place to start for me would be sub Saharan Africa.The US plays the contemptuous, all knowing bully, while China delivers (what TPTB regard as) the goods. China, of course, is not the benign partner long term.
What? China is completely honest. You sold us all this land just honor our ownership. Oh your people are starving to death, well you should have thought about that before you sold us the land. F–k off, have you seen the PLA special forces?
PLA spec op are regional joke considering the US blue navy still floats, US composite jets are flying, and the USD remains the preferred global substrate.. It’s obviously not long for eternity but we have not cleared out of it yet.
I’m not sure whether the US understands how important it is to hold on in Africa. It just handed over southern Africa and centra/southern America to the Chinese?????
Gail you write goods and services need to be affordable to citizens with few skills and low income. Your example “includes food, clothing, housing, transportation, education and other services, such as medical services”. I agree to the idea, but I think the problem begins earlier, at least in wealthy countries: You name some very basic services/goods: Not getting them amounts to “absolute poverty”, something that is still very rare in developed countries. But we do already see a rise in “relative poverty”: People who still get enough to eat, clothing etc., but are no longer able to participate in the “typical” consumption-levels of their societies. Issues like not being able to travel abroad for vacation or finance your children an expensive hobby seem to be of minor importance at first glance – but people get dissatisfied and social unrest grows. The result is the contemporary nationalist and populist revolt we witness in many countries of the “West”. So I think, the unravelling of the system starts way before people can’t afford their food anymore.- And is already under way.
I agree with you.
I expect it also starts with children of baby boomers not being to afford the lifestyle of their parents. For many years, lifestyles were improving. Recent college graduates could easily find a job to support themselves and a family, and afford local living arrangements, too. Now they have so much debt that this seems impossible. Young people end up living in their parents’ basements and putting off marriage and children indefinitely.
https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/140631_rea_7waysbasement_1.jpg
As long as the 241 pizza arrives on time… it’s not so bad
Immigrants and “nationalist” groups have similar motives. Immigrants are often people who do not have the same opportunities that their parents did in their homeland. They are attempting to fix their situation even if it is at the cost of others.
here some videos of Americans people general knowledge
https://youtu.be/BaHc-aZZBo0
https://youtu.be/1MwN5nDajWs
gail these people are the future of america
My ignorance is as good as your knowledge.
The pathetic belief in collective wisdom from individual ignorance.
Just remember they all vote.
The fact that everyone votes is part of what makes a self-organized system work. The collective wisdom (or lack thereof) is reflected in the leaders who are elected.
This is the reason we cannot completely ignore differing views.
gail chinese are ignored different views for Hundred of years
it perfect running fine
I’m just trying to get this straight. People who don’t know how many states there are, can’t tell you what temperature water freezes at, or what is made of. Have no clue how many continents there are. Couldn’t find Liberia if their life depended on it and the map was labeled. Haven’t any idea how energy is developed or dispatched are the very ones who collectively make the system work. Can we honestly say that? Why would their participation make any difference at all?
To believe that merely participating in a system makes it work is a blind faith without any evidence. It’s actually a form of predestination. American exceptionalism. Manifest destiny. It a religious belief.
However convincing a population that their participation as value is a powerful control mechanism. Having rapid successive elections every 2years brainwashes the public into thinking they have a voice or a choice. This quells armed revolt.
They do know whether their own family is able to buy enough food for itself and whether they can afford to raise a family. They know if jobs are available that pay well enough for them to cover all kinds of costs: mandated health insurance, transportation to work, rent, and food (easily prepared so it fits into their hectic schedule; or from a fast food place). A person really doesn’t need to know what temperature water freezes atop be able to find Libera on a map. They need to be able to know whether there is any money in their bank account, or in the piggy bank on the counter.
If there isn’t money in the accounts they can use, and the future situation looks bleak, they will vote for change–change from whoever has been in office previously. I think that is what has happened recently. Trump was elected on a “change” platform. This is the way a self-organized system works. The changes put in by the Obama administration, combined with whatever outside forces were working (higher cost of extracting oil, whether or not the sales price was higher) weren’t working with the aggressive plans Obama and others had for using the energy-provided wealth of the nation (“clean energy,” pollution control, mandated health insurance).
The energy-provided wealth was lower; somehow this needed to be reflected in the way the country is operated. For example, it is not possible to mandate health insurance when America’s healthcare costs are astronomically high because of huge amount of over-treatment of some patients and extremely high wages of specialist physicians. Also, excessive spending on unneeded diagnostic test. Other countries have much better healthcare outcomes with expenditures that are far lower relative to GDP. Adding more health insurance dumps more money into this badly bloated system.
Welcome clarity!
I still say what value is there in voting for change when no change can be affected. It might describe how a system devolves but not evolves.
The entire system has been built not by political will power it was built by repetitive opportunists.
Had the founding fathers been located in Botswana I’m sure the Democratic Republic experiment would have ended differently.
What else is interesting is that no change has ever happened through a democratic process in America. Was there a civil rational discussion that brought about civil rights? Was there a level headed representative discussion that allowed trade unions to exist? If we’re honest with ourselves we will recognize that all social change has happened do to protest. Civil disobedience. Is that democratic? In away but it requires no poles. For that matter how many monarchs changed laws and tax rates to squash popular rebellion?
The illusion of a functioning government of the people for the people was brought about by an unusually high concentration of resources that kept everyone busy. The abundance didn’t require the government to demand enough to stress the system unlike today.
Now there is no available growth so people are turning to the government to guarantee their future. The government really only controls one device which is a printing press. The next crisis will be a currency crisis but before it comes the system will find whatever pockets of equity it can absorb. Religion is a good one. What do you know last year a Federal Court ruled that tax exempt status for clergy violates the First Amendment establishment clause. Not only that but the latest tax bill enforced the ruling.
So redistribution is absolutely what governments do. But consuming the worlds religions will be short lived as it will destroy demand and create a deflationary spiral. Who would vote for that? Who wouldn’t? No one actually has a clue what’s going on and that’s my point. It doesn’t matter how many of them they are.
You make some good points:
“The illusion of a functioning government of the people for the people was brought about by an unusually high concentration of resources that kept everyone busy. The abundance didn’t require the government to demand enough to stress the system unlike today.
Now there is no available growth so people are turning to the government to guarantee their future. The government really only controls one device which is a printing press.”
And you might be right about the government absorbing whatever pots of equity it can.
Ultimately, the government must fail, because it is energy dependent, and there isn’t enough to go around.
All cows really need to know/do is:
– find grass and water
– mount each other and produce more cows
– make mooing sounds
– produce milk/meat for their masters
Sound familiar?
Anyone should be able to memorize names, positions, numerical constants and geographical locations. Even monkey can do that. It takes an exceptional person to actually be able to use that knowledge to think, reason and figure out why there is geopolitical strife in the world. Critical thinking and research skills are even more lacking than the ignorance on display in those videos. My thinking is that there are very few people today that are actually capable of critical thinking. I may be cynical but, I think governments don’t want its populace to be adept at thinking for themselves. Television and “public education” help tremendously in that endeavor.
Having headphones on all day long, blaring music or “news” doesn’t help the thinking process either.
The fatal flaw in a democracy as I understand it (technically the US is a Representative Democratic Republic or a “Republic” that enables close to a democratic vote- if one puts aside the argument of voting by delegates for a moment) is that this can devolve to a situation where an incremental increasing number of non-productive people can out vote those who are pulling the cart.
By human nature, unless things like business or property ownership, a poll tax or even an intelligence permit are required, it seems to me that all forms of government are doomed to decay to the socialist state, and from there, poverty for 99.99%. People vote that the productive people give the cart riders their wealth. Hello Venezuela.
My favorite definition of socialism: “A system of government in search of its next capitalist host.” No socialist system of government has ever created wealth de novo.
Government really boils down to a means of redistribution of wealth. If this redistribution system is not kept in check, then it seems we are always doomed to the capitalist-socialist cycle.
There are two absolute requirements to keep a government system from falling into an end stage socialist state : honest money and rule of law.
Rule of law also requires a carefully refereed system- refereed by a randomly selected rotating panel of experts/judges- and not like the SCOTUS where they are appointed for life. (This rotation of hearing officers and board experts is what was supposed to be the case in my KY Medical Board Suspension in 1994 but the hearing officer, who had a long record of NEVER having disagreed with the Board ( and the attorney for the other co defendant physician Juan Ascuncion MD , J. Fox DeMosiey Esq., made his only motion in his long career to recuse this hearing officer (Martin Glazer), who legislated his own standards of care from the bench, and the statutorily required standards in my specialty (orthopedic surgery), initially recognized by the Board , and whose own expert in my specialty completely exonerated me, were then discarded and I was then held to different specialty standards (anesthesiology) to arrive at a necessary guilty verdict for public relations. Sorry for the digression, but it shines light on why I make the above opinions.)
Government is indeed a money redistribution system. Money is a promise of goods and services. These goods and services require energy to be made. So money is really a promise of future (or current) energy supplies, depending on when a person chooses to spend the money.
The amount of money a government has to redistribute really has to do with the “energy surplus” that energy supplies (today primarily fossil fuels) are providing. A major way governments get this money is through tax revenue. But if profits of companies are falling, and profits are farmers are too low, and there is increasing wage disparity, then the government cannot collect enough taxes. We know historically this is why economies collapsed–essentially there was not enough “net energy” to redistribute as government programs. These programs tended to grow over time. More programs were needed as governments ran into difficulties.
I don’t agree with the standard methodology of calculating “Net Energy,” but I think that the concept makes perfect sense. Any truly productive energy source must be capable of paying high taxes to the government. This is how it transfers net energy to the government. Another way it can transfer net energy to the government is by increasing worker productivity, and raising wages of non-elite workers. At this point, we are not getting the necessary “Net Energy” to the government. The tax revenue being generated from energy companies is falling. Wind and solar require subsidies! And growing wage disparity is a sign of not enough net energy.
Unfortunately, without enough net energy, even “honest money and rule of law” cannot work.
I think you may be right about the socialist/communist systems not working. What happens is that a huge share of the available net energy is absorbed by people who are not really productive. We have the situation in the Middle East, where everyone gets close to free food and oil. Or Venezuela, or the Former Soviet Union. Energy consumption per capita rises to disproportionately high levels, but goods and services produced do not.
But we have our own socialist/communist system in place. Giving all of the retirees big benefits absorbs a huge amount of net energy, as population ages. Economies really cannot afford to have a huge non-working group, unless they have a huge supply of net energy. In past generations, people worked until they died. Without enough net energy, we have to get back to close to this situation.
”non-productive people can out vote those who are pulling the cart.”
Isn’t already the productive in minority feeding both rich and poor useless eaters?
A constitutional republic. The constitution limits the actions of the majority.
The best form of government is an oligarchy …. which is what the United States has … it goes by the name The Federal Reserve….
This form of government has made the United States the most prosperous … most powerful…. country in the history of the world…
Goyim (cattle) ….
Nicely stated.
I don’t get your point though, it’s not in the nature of the beast, as (sub)average population of the host nation for prevailing-dominating system doesn’t have to be smart, in the know, or anything, They just have to enjoy the spoils, consume and be happy for it, oblivious to the situation. That’s simply how the humanoids civ rolls for ages, jealousy and schadenfreude aside..
i understand what you saying
but my question is simple general knowledge like
which is bigger sun or moon should know by first world people
I’m afraid you don’t understand me.
We are past age of simple-general-knowledge by many decades already. General knowledge is a fluid concept, which has not been needed, hence abandoned, limited were possible/applicable.
Could you describe the age as “impressionist,” where a blurred/fuzzy sense of needs is all that applies? McLuhan (sp) could have been alluding to something like this.
And there is Gail’s point about voting, specifically.
Where I live we have had experts doing the town planning and the roads are jammed up, experts running the medical system and the outcomes keep getting worse, experts deciding the school curriculum and things are getting dumber by the day. We were all here as the experts nearly crashed the economies of the west; the Queen even asked what happened.
So, at least the useless eaters don’t try and tell others what where or how.
I mean, look at England, running out of CO2 for their beersies in a world the experts say is overheating because of CO2. You just have to wonder sometimes.
Definition of expert/consultant; borrows your watch to tell you the time then walks off with it.
I like your definition of expert/consultant!
In the US, we have a health care system that works on steroids. They are convinced that they can prevent all kinds of things, if they have enough tests. They have a pill for every problem. They can forecast who will someday have signs of cancer (current fad: thyroid), even though most people who seem to have cancer cells never get symptoms. The healthcare system insists that the patient over age 18 make the decision, even when it would be helpful to have a parent or adult child help with the decision. Surgeries on people over age 90 seem to be common, judging by the e-mails I get. No wonder the costs of the system are way too high!
I know it is just more useless trivia, but I have found after more than 10 years of helping students in Poland with English, that they understand the grammar better than Americans. And looking at sample questions that they have for “matura’ – end of high-school exams to determine what happens next- there is no way that more than the top 1% of American students could pass such an exam.
As you probably know, the US nomenclature class ruling over the country in the corporate sector and public sector where it matters (e.g. FED) is basically an international class, lot of them come from former British enclaves (e.g. SA, AUS/NZ..), and or many came with direct and oddball European connections etc. The previous POTUS was even skillfully advertised as an US afro-american, which he is not by a long shot.
It doesn’t matter much that US lower classes a free falling in cognitive functions as long there is an open influx of talent from abroad for these top positions, and this stream of brains is sort of automatically supplied (out of the available global pool) as long as the US is still the host nation for the global dominant money-power regime..
Actually, it’s very much analogue symptom to the similar situation with previous collapses like in antiquity and so on..
Republican congressman explains sea-level rise: it’s rocks falling into the sea
A member of Congress has suggested that the White Cliffs of Dover tumbling into the English Channel was causing rising sea levels.
Republican Mo Brooks of Alabama pushed back at the notion that rising sea levels were the result of global warming in a hearing of the House Science, Space and Technology on Wednesday.
Instead, Brooks pointed to silt deposition as well as erosion as a cause of rising sea levels. Questioning scientist Phil Duffy of the Woods Hole Research Center, Brooks postulated that silt and mud washed by rivers into the ocean caused water levels to rise as it settled on the sea floor. “Now you have got less space in those oceans because the bottom is moving up,” he said.
He went on: “What about the White Cliffs of Dover … [and] California, where you have the waves crashing against the shorelines, and time and time again you have the cliffs crashing into the sea? All of that displaces water which forces it to rise, does it not?”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/17/republican-congressman-mo-brooks-sea-level-rise-rocks
this remind of what John Kerry said to Americans some time ago
: In America you have a right to be stupid’
https://youtu.be/c__UYLHV81Y
“A member of Congress has suggested that the White Cliffs of Dover tumbling into the English Channel was causing rising sea levels.”
That’s rubbish, it’s those bloody Dutch with their dykes, pushing their sea onto everybody else. Nuke the Netherlands, and order will be restored. 🙂
Leo disagrees – the oceans levels are not rising:
http://desktop.beiruting.com/Content/Uploads/Article/leonardo-dicaprio-150409125347867.jpg
it takes one to know one.
“The ranks of hedge fund managers expecting impending market chaos are growing. Greg Coffey, the former star manager at Moore Capital Management who started trading at his own firm this year, is comparing the turmoil in May to the end of dotcom bubble in 2000. Horseman Capital Management’s Russell Clark, one of the most bearish hedge fund managers in Europe, invoked memories of the financial crisis of 2008 in a letter to clients.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/hedge-fund-managers-see-echo-of-2000-2008-crashes-in-markets
“The S&P 500 Financials Index fell for the 12th straight day Tuesday, the longest losing streak on record. Coming into the year, many cited the tax overhaul and a rising rate environment as reasons for banks to rally. Instead, they’ve endured pressure from a flattening yield curve. The losses also come ahead of the final phase of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests and waning consumer confidence.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-26/banks-endure-record-streak-of-losses-as-yield-curve-flattens
A flattening curve between short term interest rates and long term interest rates is terrible for banks. Jerome Powell seems to want to pop bubbles, but it would be just as well if he didn’t bring down banks in the process.
Perhaps in retrospect banks should have only been able to do limited activities (such as deposits and loans) as opposed to being able to do everything (with some limitations). So “only xyz” instead of “anything but abc.”
The rejoinder to this has been of the nature that we need to expand credit to grow the economy. It seems to me this was never true for fiat currency nations. We need to increase the money supply to reflect and pull forward increased production. The necessity or value of interest bearing credit being paid to a rentier class is less clear. It seems that this policy leads to demand destruction if no new money enters the system debts can never be paid off, only shifted onto government balance sheets. Banks need not be the source (or only source) of money creation, and they need not be private.
Governments could for instance increase the money supply through other means and limit banking activities to loaning on deposit, not creating deposits through lending via fed reserves.
Who knows how this would have effected the energy system. It seems like we have a messy, confusing, and possibly nefarious mixture of private and public interests which have brought the financial sector to where we are.
I am not convinced that the banking system is at fault for our problems. The economy needs to grow for a whole host of reasons (rising population, rising complexity, to get the benefit of economies or scale, diminishing returns on any number of kinds of resources, including energy resources, allow prices of shares of stock to rise, repay debt with interest). But I am not 100% familiar of all of the ins and outs, and how they work together.
Reaching limits is inevitable.
“The risk of a global trade war is rising. That could sink the US economy into a recession, bringing an end to the second-longest expansion in American history.”
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/26/news/economy/trade-war-recession-bank-of-america/index.html
“President Donald Trump is on the verge of escalating his trade war with China. By the end of this week, the Trump administration is expected to release details of plans to restrict Chinese investment in American businesses and block the ability of US businesses to sell some high-tech products to China.”
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/26/17500848/trump-china-trade-war-invest-export
“…markets in China slumped. The Shanghai composite fell 1.11 percent to close at 2,812.87 and the smaller Shenzhen composite lost 1.29 percent. The benchmark Shanghai index began the day already in bear market territory, referring to a drop of at least 20 percent from recent highs. The blue-chip CSI 300, meanwhile, tumbled 2.05 percent on the day.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/27/asia-markets-oil-prices-trade-concerns-dollar-and-stocks-in-focus.html
“There may be as many as 64 million empty apartments in China. Many people buy the properties as an investment with no intention of ever moving in. Author says ghost cities show growth is driven by debt in China.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-27/china-ghost-cities-show-growth-driven-by-debt/9912186
theyre doing the same thing in london
Chinese?
This era of extend and pretend potentially offers a rich seam of comedy to be mined by someone with a sense of humour. Perhaps your next book should be a biting satire, Norman?
Their development policy worldwide has been disastrous for architectural heritage, which they dismantle with impunity.
When there is not enough to go around, globalization has to shrink back. If it weren’t Donald Trump taking the action, it would be someone else.
I agree Gail. What we are witnessing the effects of diminishing returns in real time. Globalization was the last straw to extend the growth party a bit longer. It has played out.
“Anyone doubting that there is a material risk that that the next global economic recession will be of the more severe than normal variety has not been paying attention to the massive build up in global debt levels over the past decade.
“Nor have they been paying attention to the unusually low interest rates at which all too much of this debt has been issued.
“That experience should have taught us that it is precisely this combination of high debt and credit risk mispricing that has the potential to cause real financial market strain when credit eventually reprices to historically more normal levels…
“If such a repricing were indeed to occur, we would, in Warren Buffet’s phrase, find out which of the financial institutions had been swimming naked by having over-lent to corporations of dubious quality at interest rates that were far too low to compensate them for default risk.
“Sadly, there is little that the world’s central banks can do to dial back the global credit bubble that they have created by their many years of ultra-easy monetary policy and massive balance sheet expansion.”
http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/393976-global-debt-binge-setting-us-up-for-a-pounding-economic-headache
I think the general direction we are heading is to fake the statistics. When things get so bad and there is nothing that can be done – just lie. Just say everything is rosy and great. All the way up to the power going out; the talking heads will say the data is robust and solid – no recession.
MORE! https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-26/soros-linked-protesters-ambush-mitch-mcconnell-driveway
I am working on a new social media site …. it will be like a Gawker type deal where people look to spot lefties/righties out and about —- send out alerts to rally the troops ….. then descend on mass to scream insults at the target….
Tentative url http://www.makelifealivinghell.com
Bringing Hope and Change to the World through Gang Protests. If the enemy refuses to Change – Bully Them.
Soon the enemy won’t be able to step out the door without being overwhelmed by frothing hordes….
Gestapo tactics… it could get worse.
brownshirts2.0.com
I eagerly await reports of violence directed against targets…. left or right … doesn’t matter….
Stones… bricks?
I insist… I demand… to be ENTERTAINED!
I hate both the left and the right. As you say let the entertainment begin.
I’d pay big money for the cage match … Bill and HRC vs Don and Melanoma….
The 19th-century painter with a warning for America
https://www.1843magazine.com/culture/look-closer/the-19thcentury-painter-with-a-warning-for-america
See the rabid lefty woman:
https://youtu.be/q8itF62yIJg
Would it be ok if he offered a chocolate with a creamy Fentanyl centre???
I am thinking….. YES!
who give a shit about Hungary
when india and pakistan about have nuclear war over water
which will destroyed whole northern Hampshire
https://youtu.be/2Nzm2CidMpM
New Hampshire?
Live Free or Be Nuked.
One would hope someone told them no more oil/gas if you go to far..
Well, Hungary has been kind of in vogue recently for number of reasons.
For starters, the neo Ottoman Empire (Turkey) is starting to claim directly a chunk of European politics and economy again, nowadays thanks to their swelling immigration diaspora mostly residing in Germany, Austria. Let remind you about the fact/lesson as there used to be mountain of treasure and blood spent of repelling Turks from Europe for centuries, mostly performed by the Austro-Hungarian Empire plus few ad hoc allies.
Also, Hungary was the seeding country for opposing recently both the Brussels structures not only on immigration (luring other partners to join the wider effort) but on the (political) economy as well, for example new NPP co-financed by Russia was not welcomed in some circles.
Not mentioning the sort of psychological effect, when the leader of the country is former globalist liberal darling, who turned against them, realizing the global situation deteriorated so much he should rather carve something just for himself and his peoples.
She has discovered that surrender is a great way to avoid conflict, and only dominates those she can get away with.
Wow she has those crazy eyes of the purely righteous
I bet that guys feels like doing this …
https://youtu.be/iS6chrslAfo
She is a nut.I doubt The EU will exist much longer
Many go on and on about the wonders of AI for medicine. I want to see Doctors without Borders develop free AI doctors available to all for free.
Hopefully the AI for medicine works out better than Elon’s AI for car manufacturing. Seeing as how Tesla has abandoned its robot assembly line in lieu of hand assembly in tents. I would prefer a person to do surgery over a robot/AI.
Brain surgery isnt car assembly, I think the robots can make it.
China’s economic statistics show troubling inconsistencies
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-economic-statistics-show-troubling-inconsistencies
This is a chart from the linked article. With higher energy prices (coal, oil) it is hard to make as high profits. Also, prior amounts are likely overstated.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/chana-growth-in-corporate-profit-ft.png
An outage in Canada is raising the risk of a global oil shortage
http://www.businessinsider.com/an-outage-in-canada-is-raising-the-risk-of-a-global-oil-shortage-2018-6
Wouldn’t the primary effect of this one-month outage of 360,000 barrels per day of oil be on the price of WTI relative to Brent? Or perhaps on the relativity of this particular oil to WTI?
Farmers in America are killing themselves in staggering numbers
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/american-farmers-rising-suicide-rates-plummeting-incomes/
The article is good. It points out that part of the problem is the lack of affordable healthcare coverage. Another part of the problem is rising interest rates.
It leaves out the connection with energy. Food is, of course, a type of energy. It has the same problem as other types of energy supplies: A price that is high enough for producers is too high enough for consumers to afford. Rising oil prices affect producers’ costs; so do rising prices of farmland.
Investors Should Brace for a ‘Frightening’ Recession
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, noteworthy for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, is becoming increasingly worried about the direction of the U.S. economy and stock market. “The next recession is really frightening because we don’t have any stabilizers,” he said on June 18, as quoted by MarketWatch. “We’ll have monetary policy, which will exhaust really quickly, but we don’t have any fiscal stabilizers,” he added. Jones was participating in a Talks at GS event, interviewed by Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke also warns that the U.S. economy is likely to nosedive, once the massive dose of fiscal stimulus delivered by federal tax cuts and spending hikes wears off.
https://www.investopedia.com/news/investors-should-brace-frightening-recession/#ixzz5JZml6sMY
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the next recession is guaranteed…
what would be more “frightening” would be a lack of a recovery…
that would be another sign that we’re in an economic end game…
Iowa Rep. Steve King says America is heading toward another civil war
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/06/25/steve-king-america-civil-war/733226002/
I doubt the South will attack Fort Sumter again…/s
Iowa Rep. Steve King is plain wrong…
see?
I can say things too…
can’t we all?
Why are you so opposed to this idea? Political divisions in the US are clearly demarcated by geography as well as economy, lifestyle and race. They have been for a while. When collapse hits civil war is inevitable and will most likely occur along those lines.
To have a civil war, you need a group of people in a specific region to oppose a group in another region. Liberals in Austin TX fighting good ol boys in Dallas does not a civil war make. Also, the government/military of the country has to be weak. In the US, the most FE can hope for (for entertainment purposes) is a police crackdown.
As we see…. even slight downsizing is not popular ….
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-26/clashes-continue-iran-third-day-after-grand-bazaar-merchant-protest
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-protests-broaden-u-s-sanctions-takes-toll-economy-n886461
Iran needs oil revenues for its economy to continue. In fact, the world needs Iran’s oil output. The only reason I can see for the sanctions is to try to force oil prices higher. Also, to cripple India and some other users of Iranian oil.
it would seem that the current USA agenda is world domination through commercial blackmail
an extension of the don’s business methods before he got elected—ie do business with me or you don’t do business at all.
With Iran’s oil out of the game, the price of US and Saudi oil must go up
So this is another version of what the fuhrer did in the 30s/40s…..an oil resource grab, only this time with the weight of commercial pressure, not armies.
Back in the 1930, they tried the tariff approach as well. The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act of 1930 raised US tariffs on over 20,000 goods, according to Wikipedia.
When there is not enough to go around, countries need to compete. Full co-operation is no longer an option. We have an option (or not) of a cold war versus a hot war. If Iran’s oil is out of the game, we don’t directly know what happens. It may be that India is out of the game. In that case, demand falls, and prices may go down. Or oil prices may spike, at least briefly, as you point out. But ultimately, citizens cannot pay more for goods made with oil than what their paychecks allow. So we cannot expect a long-term rise in oil prices. Wages haven’t been rising very much; this is the ultimate limit on oil prices.
Brent creeping up towards $80 now over fears that US sanctions will take a bite out of Iran’s production/exports.
My understanding is Iran is past peak. And if the world needs Iran’s oil output then, we are heading for a tipping point sooner rather than later.
Entertaining … descent into madness….
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-26/hunt-intensifies-protesters-swarm-stephen-millers-apartment-distribute-wanted
Last Friday, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders was ejected from a Lexington, VA restaurant because the gay staff was too triggered by her presence.
According to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Sanders’ father, the owner of the Red Hen followed Sanders’ family across the street to another restaurant, causing a “scene.”
Mr. Huckabee told conservative radio host Laura Ingraham on Monday that Stephanie Wilkinson, owner of the Red Hen in Lexington, Virginia, kicked Mrs. Sanders and her family out of the restaurant and then proceeded to yell at them when they tried to go to a different restaurant across the street. -Washington Times
“There’s a part of that story that hasn’t been told, you’re going to be the first to hear it,” Mr. Huckabee said, Mediaite first reported. “Once Sarah and her family left, of course Sarah was asked to please vacate, Sarah and her husband just went home. They had sort of had enough. But the rest of her family went across the street to a different restaurant.
“The owner of the Red Hen — nobody’s told this — then followed them across the street, called people, and organized a protest yelling and screaming at them from outside the other restaurant and creating this scene,” he said.
The “witch hunt” for Miller, Nielsen and Sanders was encouraged by Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA), who openly called for people to form a mob and physically confront members of Donald Trump’s administration if they see them out in public after controversy over separated migrant families erupted two weeks ago.
Hmmmm…. why didn’t they confront the key players in the Obama administration who orchestrated the wholesale destruction of Libya…. leaving chaos and suffering behind on a biblical scale?
Maxine… you scraggly f789ing bi tch…..where are you on this issue?
You’ve said goodbye to your previous overlords, the Christian Right, say hello to your new overlords the Social Justice Left…as usual, our overlords provide a good diversion from real problems…For example…no one is talking about the rising number of car collisions involving automated cars in a serious manner.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. They want to control what you can say and do and are obsessed about sex.
There are those who believe the left is a kind and gentle force….
They ignore that leftists were responsible for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag
https://img.rt.com/files/news/3c/1c/10/00/3546756878.jpg
What intrigues me is: why the desperation? Why is Hollywood so obsessed with Trump? Why are so many people in congress (not just Democrats) so inflamed by Donald Trump?
It seems to me these people that are so agitated are trying to hide something that they fear Trump may expose.
Totally agree… when I encounter people like this .. I acknowledge he acts like a buffoon … but beyond that can you specify what he has done that justifies the vitriol…. they of course have no response because like most people the MSM has fed them talking points and told them what to think
i.e. they are f789ing MORE ons.
It would be more interesting having a conversation with a dog
An interesting interview with Ugo Bardi that I havn’t read before. Has someone read his new book?
«A: What do you think are the weak points of our civilisation, its main vulnerabilities? If there was to be a collapse what would you see as the first chain of events typical of the phenomenon? And do you have a sense of what will then happen as resources get depleted and the climate goes awry?
U.B.: I have thought quite a bit about these issues, and I find the study of the theory of networks combined with system dynamics modeling very helpful. When I started working on this topic, I thought that the depletion of resources might be the main reason why civilisations collapse. I still think that might be the case, just as it might also be the case that civilisations have been destroyed by outside forces such as climate change or military invasions. But it seems to me that very often something more subtle may be going on: it’s loss of control which leads to the collapse of civilisations. A civilisation is a system made up of elements that are closely linked, and their correlation has to be controlled in one way or another. Besides, the control mechanism needs resources, and if fewer resources are available there may be loss of control leading in turn to a risk of collapse, even before the exhaustion of resources or climate change brings about this result».
http://adrastia.org/an-interview-with-ugo-bardi/
I read his new book, “The Seneca Effect.” This is what I wrote earlier:
The book does have three reviews now, two favorable, one unfavorable. The price is now down to $44.72 on Amazon.
I paid 60 dollars for that book and thought it was horrible..I gave it that bad review as well..I have read around 40 collapse books and that was one of the worst..
I think your review might have been the bad review.
I saw a simple formula yesterday that made me think. The formula was for the maximum heart rate for a human: Max Heart Rate = 220 – Age. So, if I am 20 my max heart rate is 200 beats per minute. I began to think about this for a minute; the formula tells me that the maximum theoretical age of a human is 220 years. At 220 years of age the max safe heart rate is zero. But, we all know we can’t live to be 220 year old! We die well before that time because many other things break before our heart rate slows to zero.
Just like the simple max heart rate formula it seems to me all of our models of everything are just too simple. And what makes that bad is we try to read too much into these models.
“Besides, the control mechanism needs resources, and if fewer resources are available there may be loss of control leading in turn to a risk of collapse…”
so either directly or indirectly, the cause is declining resources…
if worldwide consumer panic becomes the trigger for The Collapse, it’s still rooted in declining resources…
New American Civil War? Some people think it’s already begun
https://www.rt.com/usa/430957-america-new-civil-war-trump/
Elite Coasts v. Interior Heartland?
“New American Civil War” is ridiculous hyperbole…
we see much “fake news”…
this is like “fake words”…