Why is it so difficult to make accurate long-term economic forecasts for the world economy? There are many separate countries involved, each with a self-organizing economy made up of businesses, consumers, governments, and laws. These individual economies together create a single world economy, which again is self-organizing.
Self-organizing economies don’t work in a convenient linear pattern–in other words, in a way that makes it possible to make valid straight line predictions from the past. Instead, they work in ways that don’t match up well with standard projection techniques.
How do we forecast what lies ahead? Today, some economists believe that the economy of the United States is in danger of overheating. Others believe that Italy and the United Kingdom are facing dire problems, and that these problems could adversely affect the world economy. The world economy should be our highest concern because each country is dependent on a combination of imported and exported goods. The forecasting question becomes, “How will divergent economic results affect the world’s economy?”
I am not an economist; I am a retired actuary. I have spent years making forecasts within the insurance industry. These forecasts were financial in nature, so I have had hands-on experience with how various parts of the financial system work. I was one of the people who correctly forecast the Great Recession. I also wrote the frequently cited academic article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, which points out the connection between the Great Recession and oil limits.
Today’s indications seem to suggest that an even more major recession than the Great Recession may strike in the not too distant future. Why should this be the case? Am I imagining problems where none exist?
The next ten sections provide an introduction to how the world’s self-organizing economy seems to operate.
[1] The economy is one of many self-organized systems that grow. All are governed by the laws of physics. All use energy in their operation.
There are many other self-organizing systems that grow. One such system is the sun. Some forecasts indicate that it will keep expanding in size and brightness for about the next five billion years. Eventually, it is expected to collapse under its own weight.
Hurricanes are a type of self-organizing system that grows. Hurricanes grow over warm ocean waters. If they travel over land for a short time, they can sometimes shrink back a bit and grow again once they have an adequate source of heat-energy from warm water. Eventually, they collapse.
Plants and animals also represent self-organizing systems that grow. Some plants grow throughout their lifetimes; others stabilize in size after reaching maturity. Animals continue to require food (a form of energy) even after they stabilize at their mature size.
We can’t use the typical patterns of these other growing self-organized systems to conclude much about the future path of the world’s economic growth because individual patterns are quite different. However, we notice that cutting off the energy supply used by any of these systems (for example, moving a hurricane permanently over land or starving a human) will lead to the demise of that system.
We also know that lack of food is not the only reason why humans die. Based on this observation, it is a reasonable conclusion that having enough energy available is not a sufficient condition to guarantee that the world economy will continue to operate as in the past. For example, a blocked shipping channel, such as at the Strait of Hormuz, could pose a significant problem for the world economy. This would be analogous to a blocked artery in a human.
[2] The use of energy products is hidden deeply within the economy. As a result, many people overlook their significance. They are also difficult for researchers to measure.
It is easy to see that gasoline provides the energy supply needed for our cars, and that electricity provides the power needed to clean our clothes. What is missing? The answer seems to be, “Everything that makes humans different from wild animals is something that was made possible by the use of supplemental energy in addition to the energy from food.”
All goods and services require the use of energy. While some of this energy use is easy to see, other portions are well hidden. Energy used in manufacturing and transport is most visible; energy used in services tends to be hidden.
Governments are major users of energy, both for their own programs and for directing energy use to others. Retirees get the benefit of goods and services made with energy products through pension checks issued by governments; researchers get the benefit of goods and services made with energy products through research grants they receive. Wars require energy.
Medical treatments are possible because of the availability of medicines and equipment made with energy products. Schools and books, as well as free time to study in schools (rather than working in the field), are possible because of energy consumption. Jobs of all kinds require the use of energy.
One thing we don’t often consider is that if energy supplies are growing sufficiently, they permit an expanding population. In fact, expanding population seems to be the single largest use of growth in energy consumption (Figure 1). Growing energy consumption also seems to be associated with prosperity.
Figure 1. World energy consumption growth for ten-year periods (ended at dates shown) divided between population growth (based on Angus Maddison estimates) and total energy consumption growth, based on the author’s review of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 data and estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects by Vaclav Smil.
[3] Prices of energy services need to be low relative to overall costs of the economy. Falling energy costs relative to overall GDP tend to encourage economic growth.
Most economists expect energy prices to represent a large share of GDP costs, if energy is truly important. The statement above says the opposite. There are at least two reasons why low energy prices, and energy prices that are truly falling when inflation and productivity changes are considered, are helpful.
First, tools (broadly defined) used to leverage the labor of human workers often require considerable energy to manufacture and operate. Examples of such tools include computers, machines used in manufacturing, vehicles, and roads for these vehicles to drive on. The lower the cost to purchase and operate these tools, relative to the benefit of the tools, the more likely employers are to purchase them. If energy costs tend to fall over time, it becomes progressively easier to add more tools to leverage the labor of employees. Thus, employees become increasingly productive over time, raising the economy’s output of goods and services. For a similar reason, rising energy costs, if not offset by efficiency gains, present a barrier to economic growth.
Second, if the cost of energy production is low, it is easy to tax energy producers and thereby capture some of the benefit of their energy for the rest of the economy. If there is truly a “net energy” benefit to the economy, this is one way it gets transferred to the rest of the economy.
[4] There is indeed an energy problem, but it is not quite the same one that Peak Oilers have been concerned about.
The energy problem that Peak Oilers write about is the possibility that as easy-to-extract oil supplies deplete, oil production will reach a peak in production and begin to decline. Once decline sets in, they expect that oil prices will rise, partly because of the higher cost of production and partly because of scarcity. With these higher prices, they expect that producers will be able to extract at least a portion of the remaining oil resources. They also expect that higher prices will allow portions of the remaining natural gas and coal resources to be extracted. With higher prices, expanded use of renewable energy is expected to become feasible. All of these energy sources are expected to keep the economy operating at some level.
There are several problems with this story. First, it tends to encourage people to look for high oil prices as a sign of an oil shortage. This is not the correct indication to look for. Prior to 1970, oil prices averaged less than $20 per barrel. Comparing pre-1970 prices to today’s oil prices, current prices are already very high, at $75 per barrel. The idea that oil prices can keep rising indefinitely assumes that there is no affordability limit. Furthermore, a loss of energy consumption can be expected to reduce demand (because of its impact on jobs, productivity, and wages) at the same time that it reduces supply. If both supply and demand are affected, we don’t know which way prices will move.
Second, my analysis suggests that part of the story is that total energy consumption is very important, including oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, and various forms of electricity. All of the attention given to oil has drawn attention away from the economy’s need for a range of energy types to keep devices of all types operating. Deciding to reduce coal usage because of pollution issues, or deciding to shut down nuclear because it is aging, has an equally adverse impact on the economy as reducing oil supply, unless the shortfall can be made up with other energy products of precisely the type needed by current devices.
Third, my analysis suggests that energy consumption per capita needs to rise for the economy to function in the way that we expect it to function. If world energy consumption per capita is too flat, we can expect to see many of the symptoms that the world has been experiencing recently: more radical leaders, less cooperation among leaders, slowing economic growth and increasing debt problems. In fact, wars are possible, as are collapses of governments (as with the Soviet Union central government in 1991). The current situation seems to be more parallel to the 1920 to 1940 flat period than it does to the 1980 to 2000 flat period.
Finally, with low energy prices rather than high quite possibly being much of the problem, there is a significant chance that oil and other production will decline because producers do not make enough profit for reinvestment and because oil exporting countries cannot collect enough taxes to fund the many subsidies that citizens expect. This makes for a steeper energy decline than forecast by Peak Oilers; it also reduces the possibility that high-priced renewables will be helpful.
[5] Part of the world’s energy problem is a distribution problem; the world becomes divided into haves and have-nots in many ways. It is this distribution problem that tends to push the world economy toward collapse.
There are many parts to this distribution problem. One is the distribution of goods and services (created using energy) by country. Over time, this tends to change, especially as commodity prices change. Oil exporters are favored when oil prices are high; oil importers are favored when oil prices are low. The relative values of currencies can change quickly, as commodity prices change.
Another part of this distribution problem is growing wage and wealth disparity, as more technology is added. If there is too much wage disparity, low-paid workers often cannot afford adequate food, homes, and transportation for their families. Their lack of demand for goods made with energy products (because of their low wages) tends to work through the system as low commodity prices. This happens because (a) there are so many of these workers and (b) these workers tend to purchase a disproportionate share of goods and services that are highly energy-dependent.
[6] Debt-like promises play a major role in making the economy operate.
Taking out a loan allows an individual or business to purchase goods without saving for the purchase in advance. To some extent, taking out a loan moves up the timing of purchases. At times, it even permits purchases that otherwise would not be possible. For example, if a young person tries to decide between (a) working at a low wage until he has saved up enough to afford to go to college and (b) taking out a loan and going to school now, so his wages would be higher in future years, his optimal choice will often be scenario (b). The time would likely never come when the low-paid individual could save up enough wages to afford to go to college. If the young person strongly desires high wages, his optimal strategy would be to take the loan and hope that his future wages will be high enough to repay it.
If the goal of the economy is to produce an ever-increasing amount of goods and services, growing debt can very much help this growth. This happens because with more debt, more individuals and businesses can afford* to buy the goods and services that they want now. In a sense, debt acts like a promise of the future energy needed to make future goods and services with which the loan can be repaid. Thus, adding debt acts somewhat like adding energy to the economy.
Because of the way debt works, the economy behaves much like a bicycle, with growing debt pulling the system forward. If the economy is growing too slowly, the tendency is to add more debt. This solution works if a rapidly growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy is available; the additional debt can be used to create a growing supply of affordable goods and services. If energy costs are high, the goods and services produced tend to be unaffordable.
Figure 2. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.
A bicycle needs to operate at a fast enough speed (about 7.5 feet per second), or it will fall over. Similarly, the world economy needs to grow fast enough, or it will not be able to meet its obligations, including repayment of debt with interest. If the economy grows too slowly, debt defaults are likely to grow, pulling the economy down.
[7] It looks like it should be possible to work around energy problems with improved technology, but experience suggests that this approach represents only a temporary “fix.”
There are two issues that make improved technology less of a solution than it appears to be. The first is diminishing returns. For example, if a business faces a choice between (a) paying a worker to perform a process and (b) adding a machine that can perform the same process, the business will tend to make the changes that seem to provide the largest cost savings first. At some point, as more technology is added, capital costs can be expected to become excessive relative to the human labor that might be saved. The issue of the diminishing returns to added complexity (which includes growing technology) was pointed out by Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies.
The second reason why added technology tends to be only a temporary solution is because it tends to lead to wage disparity. Wage disparity has a tendency to grow because of the greater specialization and larger organizations needed to coordinate the ever-larger projects. The reduced purchasing power of those at the bottom of the hierarchy can eventually bring an economy down because it can lead to commodity prices that are below the level needed to maintain the extraction of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are required to maintain today’s economy.
[8] Renewable energy has been vastly oversold as a solution. What is needed is an ever-increasing quantity of inexpensive energy in forms that match the energy needs of current devices.
The wind and solar story is far different from the story presented in the press. Essentially, wind and solar are extensions of today’s fossil fuel system. The evidence that they are truly beneficial to the economy is shaky at best. We know that if energy sources are truly transferring significant “net energy” to the system, they generally can afford to pay high taxes. The fact that wind and solar require subsidies raises questions regarding whether standard calculations are providing accurate guidance. The press rarely mentions the high tax revenue that high oil prices make possible, worldwide. Tax revenues largely support many oil exporting countries.
Furthermore, the share of the world’s energy supply that wind and solar provide is very low: 1.9% and 0.7%, respectively. They are shown in the almost invisible blue and orange lines at the very top of Figure 3. Fossil fuels contributed 85% of total energy supply in 2017.
Figure 3. World energy consumption divided between fossil fuels and non-fossil fuel energy sources, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.
[9] The world economy becomes very fragile as energy limits approach.
Energy limits seem to be affordable energy limits. Oil prices need to be high enough for exporting countries to obtain adequate tax revenue. In addition, oil producers need prices that are high enough so that they can make the necessary reinvestment, as fields deplete. At the same time, energy prices need to be low enough for consumers to afford goods and services made with energy products.
Much of developed world’s infrastructure was built when oil prices were less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted terms. A rising price of oil will lead to a higher cost of replacing roads and pipelines. If these were built using $20 per barrel oil, even a current price of $40 per barrel would represent a significant cost increase. The world has experienced high oil prices for sufficiently long that we have collectively forgotten how low oil prices were between 1900 and 1970.
Most people know that the earth holds a huge quantity of energy resources. The problem is extracting these resources in a way that is both affordable to consumers and sufficiently high-priced for producers. Falling long-term interest rates between 1981 and 2002 allowed the world economy to tolerate somewhat higher oil and other energy prices than it otherwise could because these falling interest rates permitted ever-lower monthly payments for a given loan amount. For example, if interest rates on a $300,000 mortgage would fall from 5% to 4% on a 25-year mortgage, monthly payments would decrease from $1,753 to $1,584. The lower interest rates would allow more people to buy homes with a given size of mortgage. Indirectly, the lower mortgage rates would permit additional new homes to be built and would allow more inflation in home prices. These benefits would at least partially offset the adverse impact of high energy prices.
Since the natural decline in long term interest rates stopped in 2002, the world economy has become increasingly fragile; the Great Recession took place in 2007-2009, when oil prices spiked and long-term interest rates were already low by historical standards. It was only when the United States’ program of quantitative easing (QE) was put in place that long-term interest rates could fall to even lower levels, helping the economy hide the problem of high energy prices a little longer.
The artificially low interest rates made possible by QE have problems of their own. They tend to inflate asset prices, including both real estate prices and stock market prices. Thus, they tend to create bubbles, which are prone to collapse if interest rates rise. Artificially low interest rates also tend to encourage investment in schemes with very low profit potential. Artificially low interest rates also encourage cross-border investments to try to take advantage of interest rate differences. If interest rate relativities change, the money that quickly would enter a country can almost as quickly leave the country, causing major fluctuations in currency relativities.
Regulators do not understand the role that physics plays in making the economy operate as it does. They assume that they, alone, have the power to make the economy behave as it does. They do not understand how important falling interest rates are in creating growing demand for goods and services. The economy, since 1981, has spent most of its time with falling interest rates; the most recent part of this decline in long-term interest rates has been made possible by QE. These falling interest rates have played a major role in disguising the world’s long-term problem of rising energy costs. These rising energy costs are taking place primarily because the cheapest-to-extract resources were produced first; the resources that are left have higher costs associated with them, for a variety of reasons, such as being farther away from the user, deeper, or needing more advanced extraction techniques. These issues have not been sufficiently offset by improved technology to keep extraction costs low.
US regulators now want to raise interest rates by raising short term interest rates and by selling QE securities. They don’t understand that they are playing with fire. If they can raise interest rates now, they will have the flexibility to lower them later if the economy should later slow excessively. They think that the higher rates will give them more control over the economy. They don’t understand how much of the world’s economy may really be a bubble, created by the decline in interest rates since 1981.
[10] The adverse economic outcome we should be concerned about is collapse, as encountered by prior civilizations when their economies hit limits.
The stories in the press have been so focused on oil “running out” and finding alternatives to oil that few have stopped to ask whether this is really the correct story. Instead of creating a new story, it might have been better to look more closely at history. Based on the historical record, collapse seems to have been associated with situations where populations have outgrown their resource bases. In other words, collapse can be considered an energy consumption per capita problem. The oil problem (and other fuel problems) we are facing today can be viewed as an energy consumption per capita problem, as well.
We know from research that has been done by Peter Turchin, Joseph Tainter, and others how collapse has played out in the past. The situation is different this time, however, because the world economy is very interconnected. Oil consumption depends on electricity consumption, and vice versa. Our financial system is also extraordinarily important. For these reasons, a collapse may occur more quickly than in the past.
Differences Between My View and the Standard View
One of the big differences between the way I see the economy and the standard view of the economy is the answer to the question of “Who is in charge?” The standard view is that politicians and economists are in charge. They have all of the answers. The dire collapse outcomes that afflicted early civilizations could not possibly affect us. We are too smart. We know how to adjust interest rates correctly. We can even make QE available to lower long-term interest rates. We can also add more technology and other complexity than has ever been added in the past.
The answer I see to the question, “Who is in charge?” is, “The laws of physics are in charge.” Politicians play a fairly minor role in directing the fate of economies. If there is not enough energy available of the type needed (inexpensive and matching the current infrastructure), the economy may very well collapse. It is nature and the laws of physics that call most of the shots.
Another big difference between my view and the standard view is the observation that a decrease in oil supply (or total energy supply) affects both the supply and demand of energy. Because both supply and demand are affected, we don’t know which direction oil and other energy prices will move. They may move erratically, as interest rates are adjusted by regulators. A more complex model is needed.
Climate change becomes less of an issue in my view of the future, for several reasons. First, humans don’t really have very much control over the direction of the economy, so talking about anthropogenic climate change doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The laws of physics that allowed human population to rise are also allowing climate change to happen. Second, we seem to be limited in our ability to use renewables to fix the situation. Furthermore, the possibility of collapse in the near future makes the various scenarios that hypothesize the use of large amounts of fossil fuels over many years in the future seem very unrealistic. Perhaps efforts to fix climate change should be focused in new directions, such as planting trees.
Help from Others
The subject matter of this post requires the knowledge of information from a wide range of academic areas. I could not have figured out all of this information on my own. I have been fortunate to have been able to learn from of a wide range of experts. Quite a number of academic groups have seen my articles, and invited me to speak at their conferences. In particular, I have had a long-term involvement with the BioPhysical Economics organization and have spoken at many of their conferences. I have learned much from Dr. Charles Hall, although at times I don’t 100% agree with him.
I have also learned from the many commenters on OurFiniteWorld.com. They form a self-organizing system of people from a wide range of backgrounds. Earlier, my involvement at TheOilDrum.com as “Gail the Actuary” allowed me to get acquainted with a range of researchers, looking at different aspect of the energy problem.
In future posts, I intend to expand further on the ideas presented in this post.
*Here I am using the term afford loosely. What borrowers can actually afford is the current required monthly payments.
US second quarter GDP has been inflated by corporations frantically trading to get materials and items before Trump’s tariffs kick in..
A recent note from Goldman Sachs suggests some caution:
“An unusually large number of one-off factors appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, many of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns. As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.”
Morgan Stanley also made very similar comments in their recent analysis about the unusually large number of one-off factors which appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, most of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns.
“As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significant. Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while.
The ‘stockpiling’ in exports could be responsible for 1.5 percentage points of our 4.7% 2Q GDP estimate. ‘Stockpiling’ also appears to be at work for US companies, albeit to a more limited extent. The inventory build in 2Q is tracking at +US$38 billion, versus a +US$10 billion rate in the prior two quarters. And what’s more interesting is the areas where those inventories are building, which have material overlaps with trade: electrical goods, machinery equipment, motor vehicles and parts.”
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-mirage-that-will-be-q2-gdp/
There is no transition – it’s marketing. The ratio of fossil / renewable has stayed about the same over time.
You also can’t “transition” transportation. It requires liquid fuels. And, even if we could build batteries capable of storing as much energy as gas, now we have the same problem, only we’re talking about other materials instead of oil.
Interesting:
“BP Plc highlighted that it’ll pick up 83,000 acres in the U.S. Permian Basin in its announcement for the $10.5 billion purchase of shale assets from BHP Billiton Ltd.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-27/bp-returns-to-world-s-hottest-oil-play-8-years-after-quitting-it
They must not expect its prospects to be as poor as many here do.
The Permian is “the field” in the US.
Its just they currently have a transportation issue.
The Bakken and Eagle Ford are aging quite a bit, although the Bakken is producing at a all time high (with wells at half of earlier production). Iran with 60 wells produces more oil than the Bakken at 2500.
“Saudi Arabia is pushing Aramco to raise tens of billions of dollars in debt now that the state oil giant’s initial public offering has stalled, as the kingdom pursues other ways to fund an economic transformation.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-pressures-aramco-to-take-on-debt-after-ipo-stalls-1532642130
Widespread droughts and flooding are having immediate effects on food production.
This is going to bring down the house of cards.
We don’t know yet how bad the harvest is going to be in affected areas but current indications are alarming. However, the previous five years have been very good – Russia had a record harvest in 2017 and Ukraine in 2016, so we do have a lot of surplus grain stored away. Prices will undoubtedly go higher though and major importer nations like Egypt will suffer accordingly.
We could be be moving into an era of higher oil prices and higher food prices – a most unwelcome combination!
Discretely higher food prices, I probably should say, as higher oil prices will tend to push up food prices anyway, so we could have a doubling effect…
Lack of an absolute amount of food due to adverse climactic conditions as are currently happening in real time will lead to an awful feeling in the pit of the stomach.
Such is the price of being an independent unit.
Venezuelans still look fat in MSM pictures of food lines/riots, so I suppose they are not calorically starving yet.
There is an awfully lot of local variability in weather from year to year.
Yes there is…
Initially dairy cows are butchered and sold as meat because of lack of feed. That should hide a decrease in food for months, maybe a year?
The poor will starve first – in the best of our traditions.
Sure. Preferably start with the really poor far away, so I don’t have to see it.
Animals eat a large portion of the soybeans and corn produced. Fewer live animals will lead to less demand for these products. US farmers will find their incomes even lower than recently. This will add to the wage disparity problem.
I think feeding cattle on only soybeans/corn is mostly an american thing. Is it a bad crop year in US also?
Record high grain prices leads to uprisings in countries that are not able to afford the higher prices. Remember Arab Spring in 2010 and 2011. This was just after the earlier plunge in oil prices, when they began to rise again.
The US “talked” Australia into giving Egypt $400 million worth of wheat for nothing.
Higher food prices, etc, would make it worthwhile for the Mc Gibb’s to go….. raiding! War row-boats ready?
Daubing on my woad and practising my shrill battle-cry even as I type, Xavier.
“British households spent around £900 more on average than they received in income during 2017, pushing their finances into deficit for the first time since the credit boom of the 1980s.
“The Office for National Statistics said the shortfall amounted to nearly £25bn – equal to almost a quarter of the NHS budget – and the overspend was mostly paid for with borrowed money, though households also ran down savings.
“The figures pose a challenge to the government, which was warned last year that a dramatic rise in debt-fuelled spending since 2016 has taken place against the backdrop of the Brexit vote, which triggered a rise in inflation at a time of weak wage-growth.
“Analysts warned that a squeeze on household incomes from benefit cuts, lacklustre wages and high inflation would continue to force poorer households to borrow more to pay basic bills.”
“Anti-poverty charities warned that millions of low income households were the worst affected.
“StepChange, which provides advice for indebted households, said the poorest were in constant need of credit to keep their heads above water.
“The charity’s chief executive, Phil Andrew, criticised the ONS for saying that households were living beyond their means, which he said implied they could cut back if they wanted to.
““It’s really unfortunate that this very useful data is so heavily sprinkled with the phrase that households are ‘living beyond their means’. The reality is that too many households, here in Britain, in 2018, simply cannot make ends meet, however hard they try.””
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/26/household-debt-in-uk-worse-than-at-any-time-on-record
So the perfect time for an interest rate rise then:
“The Bank of England looks set to pass a post-financial crisis milestone next week by finally raising interest rates above their emergency levels set more than nine years ago.”
http://www.euronews.com/2018/07/26/bank-of-england-poised-to-push-rates-above-crisis-lows
Tapped out consumers and conceivably a no-deal Brexit. What could possibly go wrong?
“We need to talk about UK banks…
“Berenberg is: “Concerned that borrowers that have accessed low-cost credit during recent years will be unable afford repayments as these fall due. Recent tightening of lending terms may also make refinancing more difficult.””
“…a disorderly no-deal Brexit is no one’s central expectation. But the risk of it has just risen significantly. And if that starts to appear the likely outcome, UK banks will be uninvestable.
https://www.euromoney.com/article/b197ff7gb4m5p3/we-need-to-talk-about-uk-banks
Tapped out consumers and conceivably a no-deal Brexit. What could possibly go wrong?
Why, it’s easy Harry: lotsa moronic bipeds gonna die
What are they thinking?
McGibbs, lol, glad you took Norman’s advice.
I did – Norman is a hard man to say no to – and then forgot to change my auto-settings back, so Harry McGibbs I apparently am. 😀
thanks—but i only expect girls to say that to me
Those sexx dolls don’t talk back. LOL…..
oh mine does—alla time
so much so that i say shes just a windbag
which upsets her so much she makes a distinctive pppppphhhhhhttthhhhttttttt sound,flies round the room in a tantrum and falls in a limp heap
thats women for ya
And they *dare* to say the age of romance is dead.
As the saying goes… you gotta start somewhere….
I’d like an option to change to a Russian accent
The Don has had first pick of Russian dolls
he prefers those because you get a whole series one inside the other–good for when each doll gets bored with him, then the secret service just discard one to open up the next one.
Amid Beijing’s push to turn the country into an artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse and embed the technology in all facets of life, some Chinese entrepreneurs are taking the expertise to a new frontier: s ex dolls.
WMDOLL, one of China’s biggest s ex doll makers, which is based in the southeastern province of Guangdong, launched what it calls AI-powered dolls at end of 2016 that offer features ranging from simple conversation to moving eyes, arms and torsos. Customers can personalise their dolls by choosing various appearance options including height, hairstyle and eye colour.
AI features on the dolls are still very basic: they can answer questions but cannot hold longer conversations. The doll uses vocabulary by connecting to a database supported by Chinese tech giant Baidu.
The firm admits improving the features has been difficult partly because experts aren’t interested in putting much effort into developing AI technology for adult products.
More https://widerimage.reuters.com/story/smart-bots-chinas-se x-doll-makers-jump-on-ai-drive?utm_campaign=web-app-launch&utm_medium=banner&utm_source=rcom&utm_content=ros
Off the top of my head:
AI features on the dolls are still very basic: they can answer questions but cannot hold longer conversations.
So it would be like nailing a Victoria Secrets model?
Perusing the photos and good to see they have 14 year old versions — that should keep the pedos satisfied… what would Elon think though…. and I do find that plastic bags full of boobs … exciting!!!
And finally … it is a good thing that BAU is about to end…. otherwise the future will be one of gaming, FB, 241 pizza delivery … and the rubber girlfriend… what will the women do – clean the dolls?
This is so truly f789ed up …
William Gibson summed it up in Burning Chrome – The House of Blue Lights.
Neuromancer was a new door for me——-
Will the dolls be able choose their own awful new hairstyles, which you would have to say look nice on them?
The ‘simple conversation’ sounds terribly realistic, too.
‘I feel cold: turn the heating up!’ would convince many British males of the authenticity of their doll.
Followed by ‘I want a divorce! if you declined to do so….. 🙂
There could be hidden dangers, as with all technology. How long before a doll nags its male owner to death? 🙁
or if you punctured your doll
would that be dolliecide?
Now you’ve let the cat out of the bag. Some men are gonna get off on that and buy the things specially.
This could be a big thing for wives who have lost interest….
Imagine Christmas 2018….. Harry comes down in the morning and sees a gift box the size of a coffin…. now I wonder what that could be…. open it Harry open it Harry!!! urges Helen….
Well would you look at that! She’s so darn perty! Open the other box Harry — well what will they think of next… wigs of different colours and hairstyles… and what’s this … different size snap on boobies…. oh Helen — this is the best gift ever!!!
Glad you like it…. now you can f789 off and stop humping my leg like a dog you fat old ba stard.
This could be a big thing for wives who have lost interest….
Imagine Christmas 2018….. Harry comes down in the morning and sees a gift box the size of a c
offin…. now I wonder what that could be…. open it Harry open it Harry!!! urges Helen….
Well would you look at that! She’s so da rn perty! Open the other box Harry — well what will they think of next… wigs of different colours and hairstyles… and what’s this … different size snap on bo obies…. oh Helen — this is the best gift ever!!!
Glad you like it…. now you can f7 89 off and stop hu mping my leg like a d og you fat old ba stard.
No problem … the factory has partnered with Michelin….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA_71KqaevY
Apparently they are released a model for wife beaters….
Amid Beijing’s push to turn the country into an artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse and embed the technology in all facets of life, some Chinese entrepreneurs are taking the expertise to a new frontier: s ex dolls.
WMDOLL, one of China’s biggest sex doll makers, which is based in the southeastern province of Guangdong, launched what it calls AI-powered dolls at end of 2016 that offer features ranging from simple conversation to moving eyes, arms and torsos. Customers can personalise their dolls by choosing various appearance options including height, hairstyle and eye colour.
AI features on the dolls are still very basic: they can answer questions but cannot hold longer conversations. The doll uses vocabulary by connecting to a database supported by Chinese tech giant Baidu.
The firm admits improving the features has been difficult partly because experts aren’t interested in putting much effort into developing AI technology for adult products.
More https://widerimage.reuters.com/story/smart-bots-chinas-se x-doll-makers-jump-on-ai-drive?utm_campaign=web-app-launch&utm_medium=banner&utm_source=rcom&utm_content=ros
Off the top of my head:
AI features on the dolls are still very basic: they can answer questions but cannot hold longer conversations.
So it would be like nailing a Victoria Secrets model?
Perusing the photos and good to see they have 14 year old versions — that should keep the pedos satisfied… what would Elon think though…. and I do find that plastic bags full of boobs … exciting!!!
And finally … it is a good thing that BAU is about to end…. otherwise the future will be one of gaming, FB, 241 pizza delivery … and the rubber girlfriend… what will the women do – clean the dolls?
This is so truly f789ed up …
Even if one understands and accepts that this is necessary…. it does make one’s stomach turn to read the details….
One would truly need to be psychopath to orchestrate this suffering …
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-26/brief-history-us-covert-action-syria-part-3 (see 1 and 2 as well)
It is better we are not informed of what is done … in our names … so that we can live large
It is not done for you so you can live large. qv Frank Zappa
But, never fear, all the BS is about to come home to roost: one can extend and pretend with digibits but when Humpty Dumpty supply chains collapse due to lack of basic fuel i.e. FOOD we have the Zombie Apocalypse as prophesied.
Erratic weather is enough to crater crop yields. And we have it. NOW!
If this is exponential – hang on to to your ass!
I get a few crumbs….
Bully- boy grunters is what they are.
They can’t create.
I am still buying ripe bananas….
They last longer when green.
Plantain bananas are the best.
The Swedish government has announced it is stockpiling food, citing the possibility of a war with the Ruskies.
The British government has announced it is stockpiling food, citing the possibility of a hard Brexit.
Perhaps these are just cover stories and the governments know something wicked this way comes?
This may be the year the Green Revolution sputters to a halt with declining crop yields due to inconvenient weather events. And it may be the first year of a seven-year agricultural train wreck.
replying to this comment below–can’t reply directly for some reason, my link doesnt work—something to do with the added picture i think
***********************************
////in response to Norman Pagett:
the name greenland was a con by eric the red to con fellow vikings to leave norway and settle there yes it was green around 1200 but only on the very southern coast strip–that is well documented as to the rest—you can have 1 hoaxer–2, even 3 in collusion but nobody persuades several thousand scientists … Continue reading “The world’s weird self-organizing economy”
___________
The satellit maps are very clear—who is going to fake those?
There are satellite maps filled with fake data. I’m afraid it’s reality time, Norman. As an intellectual, you are going to have to start facing facts.////
*******************************************
of course there will be fakes—that isn’t my point
my points are,
1…..how can thousands of different scientists be persuaded to collude over the faking of data to hoax the rest of us, global maps and so on (that’s the part no one seems to be willing or able to answer)
2…….when the ‘fake’ data are published, where are the people who ‘know’ it’s fake—very few seem to break ranks and point out fakery, other than people stating it as an opinion
3….why–other than to back up political ideology would anyone do it anyway
4…if it’s political/financial, then we should recognise it as such
5…. Eddy gave as reference the Investors weekly (or whatever)—well of course if you’re selling investments, youre not going to tell the truth about global warming–you’re going to state the exact opposite
In my previous comment I linked to CNN (to much scorn)—but I also pointed out that there were many others
I happen to be colour blind—along with 10% of the male population
if ten people tell me a colour is red, and I insist that its green, scientific as well as popular opinion puts me in a minority—nobody is hoaxing me. 10 people out of a hundred agreeing with me saying its green doesnt make it so, or alter established fact
Scientists operating in silos can easily produce false results. Each scientist’s share of the model relates to only a small portion of the total. Based on the limited knowledge of each group of scientists, each portion of the model looks correct. The catch is that many wrong assumptions are buried in the model. These include:
(1) Prices of energy products will always rise to cover the cost of extraction.
(2) With these high prices, we can extract nearly all of the fossil fuels that seem to be available.
(3) The economy can be changed in such a way that it doesn’t really need much energy to produce goods and services.
(4) We humans, and not the laws of physics, are in charge.
With these common false beliefs, it is possible to prove a whole lot that is not true. The thing that climate scientists don’t understand is that most of the scenarios that they put together are utterly impossible, under the laws of physics. The economy would collapse, before what they claim could happen would happen. At the last BioPhysical Economics Conference, Graham Palmer gave a talk on the impossibility of most of the IPCC scenarios. I believe he showed that all except the lowest was not possible. But with scientists working in silos, they don’t understand where their thinking goes wrong.
The latest data from China claim the country is the third largest iron ore producer in the world at 375 million metric tons. But to fuel its gargantuan steel industry, China has to import enormous quantities of iron ore from abroad.
China, the iron ore producer, however, has a major problem: to help sustain its dramatic growth in steel production, it has started mining on a large scale even very-low grade deposits, resulting in a steep drop in the average iron-ore grade produced.
Iron ore is divided in two categories for commercial purposes: high-grade – over 50% content in pure iron (Fe) – and low-grade (below 50% Fe). Low-grade iron ore usually requires capital intensive and often time-consuming processes collectively called “beneficiation” before being used.
Chinese iron ores are generally very low-grade these days, with an average Fe content of just 32%, requiring extensive beneficiation. In 1995, the average Fe content was 49%.
By contrast, Brazilian iron ores have an average Fe content of 66%, even higher than the celebrated Swedish iron ores which for centuries were the best available in quantity (at last check, 65%). Australia’s average Fe content is 58%.
High-grade iron ores command a large premium over low-grade ores, but often the latter are so cheap as to make them economically attractive despite the costs of beneficiation. However, beneficiation of iron ores under 30% Fe content is usually considered uneconomical, no matter how cheap the ore itself, the energy used in the beneficiation, and how large the scale of operations. This raises some very interesting questions about the economics of China’s large-scale use of domestic low-grade iron ores with an Fe content as low as 25%.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/28/the-largest-ships-in-the-huge-iron-ore-trade/
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/56/03/40/560340305b372445fe96430ba8c8ab5e.jpg
It might be worth reading what Jim Kunstler had to say today about the what looks like terminal dysfunction of the political cohort in the USA.
http://kunstler.com/writings/clusterfuck-nation/
Norman – the answer to your question is here … there is a very elaborate explanation — you really do need to read this… there is NO consensus… that is a lie
https://www.nationalreview.com/2015/10/cli
mate-ch
ange-no-its-not-97-percent-consensus-ian-tuttle/
When the Ministry of Truth issues and edict the MSM follows… there are endless examples of this from renewable energy to WMD… to Putin is the Devil…. to ISIS in Syria is not armed by the CIA…. to 911…. the list is endless…
You are being suckered.
The only thing swedish government is stockpiling is hot air.
Carmageddon in Detroit
Ford’s turn to confess came Wednesday evening – and it was ugly. It’s Q2 earnings plunged nearly 50% to $1.1 billion, as total revenues fell 2.4% to $38.9 billion. It slashed its earnings projections for the full year by about 11% and announced another restructuring program that could drag out for three to five years and cost $11 billion.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/07/26/gm-fiat-chrysler-ford-signal-problems-slash-guidance/
Heading in the wrong direction ….
Ouch!
Lets flog the dead horse and see what happens
A state audit of California Department of Motor Vehicles operations has found obscene levels of waste and inefficiency—unfortunately nothing really surprising when dealing with state or federal bureaucracy—however, the level of absurdity in terms of government ineptitude and abuse is aptly demonstrated in a section of the audit report now going viral, which details that DMV supervisors knew an employee slept three hours a day on the job for nearly four years.
The report found that from February 2014 through December 2017, the DMV employee slept through a total of 2,200 hours’ worth of work, costing California taxpayers more than $40,000, and true to form that is the ‘high bar’ of exceptional performance that is the typical DMV, the employee was never fired or so much as given a formal reprimand.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-26/california-dmv-worker-slept-3-years-job-audit-finds
This fellow is the PERFECT candidate for MMA …. why sleep only 3 hours per day when you can sleep the full day?
Or … if he gets tired of sleeping …. he would have the the option of puffing on a meth pipe…. or maybe he could take a 4 hour lunch and go to the cinema… or maybe bowling?
Surely it is obvious that MMA is not doable…
But MMA3… $1000 of free petrol per month … now THAT has legs….
John…. John????
This country is falling apart so fast I can’t believe what I am seeing..
Retail collapsing, Restaurants collapsing, Auto sales collapsing, Movie sales collapsing, wages flat, record income inequality, record drug deaths, record self fatalities, record alcohol deaths, record mass shootings, record school shootings, record low babies born, record heat and climate change, record hate groups/crimes, record young people at home, record debts government, student, corporate, consumer, etc..
Did I mention that global temperatures have actually cooled for the past two years — take some solace in that
https://grist.org/article/the-u-k-is-tropically-hot-right-now-6-maps-show-why/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily
It’s those hoaxers with a planet sized airbrush again
Some places coooool some get hotttter……
You do know that Greenland … was once green…..
The kkkklllimate is always changing … burning coal has an insignificant impact…. an erupting mega volcano would have a far more significant impact…
Don’t Tell Anyone, But We Just Had Two Years Of Record-Breaking Global Cooling
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/c limate-ch ange-gl obal-w arming-earth-cooling-media-bias/
Come on Norm… join us on the dark side…. be on the side of right
the name greenland was a con by eric the red to con fellow vikings to leave norway and settle there
yes it was green aroiund 1200 but only on the very southern coast strip–that is well documented
as to the rest—you can have 1 hoaxer–2, even 3 in collusion
but nobody persuades several thousand scientists in dozens of different disciplines, countries and universities etc to collude to create the single hoax of agw—that’s where the nonsense of the denier is revealed i’m afraid
30+ deg in the arctic is not a hoax–neither is -inuit having to move villages, permafost in deep melt and so on. The satellit maps are very clear—who is going to fake those? An entire team of meteorologists with independent access to the same data all around the world?
16 of the 17 hottest years on record have occured since 2000
i offer 1 link—there are lots more
https://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/18/world/2016-hottest-year/index.html
Why/how/where/when would all these diffierent people collude to create hoaxes? I can never get an answer to that
Citing the Investors Daily shows the nonsense of denial, i would have thought that much was obvious.— if I edited a paper dedicated to selling futures of any kind, I’m not going to publish AGW as an established fact—because that negates the point of investing in anything.
I’m going to say AGW is a hoax—just like the Don and his buddies do. Then the gullible voters who can’t face reality vote for him because he says its nonsense—and they want/need to believe that
or you could be just winding everybody up
The experts have been wrong….. many many many (most) of the time… throughout history…
The experts said 7M rise in oceans with the next few years…
The experts said the arctic tundra was going to melt already and release a massive methane bubble….
Need I continue?
As for consensus — that is just more bull sh it fed to you by the MSM ….
https://www.skepticalscience.com/glo bal-wa rming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm
And we’ll find those damn WMD in Iraq any day now…. any day….
Here’s the link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_who_disagree_with_the_scientific_consensus_on_glo
bal_war
ming
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/a6/2e/df/a62edf0f39de560a219b7262163b0d45.jpg
Keynes insisted on the ‘fact’ of spending money to get out of recession, ignoring the ‘fact’ that while money is infinite, energy is finite. he was incapable of changing his mind– His economic system failed
A.Hitler got the world out of recession, not Keynes
Genius or what?
Not changing one’s mind when presented with facts is double edged, unless one is dealing in alternative facts of course. Then facts enter the realm of infinity.
and the wiki link didnt open
Try this link …. it’s definitive:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl9-tY1oZNw
It’s ok to changes one’s mind … I did exactly that on the G w thing last year…. set yourself free…. break the shackles…
I have to chuckle to myself when I think about this — how the chri st did I fall for that ho ax…. I sometimes feel shame… but only for a moment or so ….
CNN…. must be true…
but nobody persuades several thousand scientists in dozens of different disciplines, countries and universities etc to collude to create the single hoax of agw—that’s where the nonsense of the denier is revealed i’m afraid.
Norman, you are a very smart guy, but there is none so blind as he who will not see, and you are demonstrating a very naive attitude on this issue.
Also, the use of the “denier” slur is beneath you. Outside of a cult bubble, it isn’t necessary to deny assertions about the world what are either unproven or alarmist scaremongering; dismissing them as unproven or alarmist scaremongering is sufficient. Similarly, I have no need to deny the utility of the renewables revolution, the tenets of Scientology, the predictive power of astrology, the efficacy of homeopathy or the flue vaccine, the existence of extraterrestrial UFOs, the future promise of cold fusion, or the veracity of Tony Blair.
If you want to remain a consensus hugger on agw, that’s fine by me. But there’s no need to knock others who are more skeptical and less trusting than you are. Moreover, you are going to feel a right twerp a few years from now if things continue not to warm up as predicted by the famed “consensus”. Why you don’t feel like one right now is a mystery, since there is plenty of evidence that the planet is well within its usual climatic behavior and that powerful forces are spending a lot of energy and treasure in an effort to manipulate public perceptions on this issue as on many others.
By the way are you embracing the full Guy McPherson version of agw as human extinction within a decade or the weak end-of-summer-arctic-ice and growing-avacados-in-Devon version?
Cease to cherish opinions and defer to authority for a few minutes and break out the popcorn for a debate in which Michael Mann, Judith Curry, David Titley, and Patrick Moore talk past each other. Can you tell by their body language, tone of voice and style of delivery who are the honest scientists here and who are the scammers?
https://youtu.be/pVXHaSqpsVg
Norman…. you are aware that in 2017…. I was leaning in your direction on this …. I was slightly Delusional…. but not completely…. I was open to Facts and Logic….
Thanks for some gentle prodding from Tim and Gail…. my eyelids were pried open a little…. enough to see a ray of light…. enough to think hang on … there is something I am missing here….
Which lead me to dig deeper… and deeper…. and deeper…. and the pinnacle of awareness was attained yesterday evening NZ time…. the journey is over…. this is now a non-issue…
And I am actually feeling a little empty … another mountain conquered… climbing Everest or K2 a second time has no appeal…. where next? What next?
Come on Norm…. join us….
30+ deg in the arctic is not a hoax
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png
The satellit maps are very clear—who is going to fake those?
There are satellite maps filled with fake data. I’m afraid it’s reality time, Norman. As an intellectual, you are going to have to start facing facts.
https://youtu.be/hepDKNVgG0M
that’s a whole lotta records…
The wealthy are starting to figure out that once money is worthless, how (and with what) will they pay their armed guards to protect them? How will they keep the upper hand? How to keep people slaving away for them? Shock collars? Robots?:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-26/wealthy-elitists-plan-survive-apocalypse-and-leave-us-behind
Black mirror has some great futuristic films…IMHO… and this one could fill the need.
http://www.vulture.com/2017/12/black-mirror-recap-season-4-metalhead.html
I am waiting on The Road 2.0
My suggestion is that they hire guards who are borderline mentally re tar ded…. and train them like dogs… giving them treats for displays of loyalty…and make sure to have a lot of treats in the stockpile…
One could also look at lobotomizing them,,,, or perhaps intensive shock treatment — the goal being to leave them disoriented… to the point where they rely on you … but not so f789ed up that they cannot guard the home base…
Then again … what if you implanted a tiny bomb inside their head … remotely controlled?
Or… or…. kinda like how families traded a dotter for food in WW2… you cut a deal…. one of the children of each guard’s family gets kept in a cage inside the home base… and if the guard does not do his duty …. you cut off bits of the child to force him back into line…
These are just random thoughts off the top of my head… If any of you billionaires are liking where I am going with this … just think of what I could come up with if you gave me free rides on a private plane and an expense account….
You can contact me at http://www.FastEddyOneManThinkTank.com
At your service
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-26/wealthy-elitists-plan-survive-apocalypse-and-leave-us-behind
I must get myself a Tesla… so that I can hand with this crowd post BAU…. we’ll all gather at the pub … have a hearty meal … and congratulate one another for having made the Right Decision and moved to NZ … and laugh about the fooools who ignored our warnings and remained in The World…..
It’s going to be so wonderful…. I can’t wait!!!
At one point there were no less than 70 kings in Viking Age Norway: every king had retainers recruited from the tallest and strongest fighters.
Not much money was needed as they were paid with the best diet rich in meat and fish, good bread, and splendid arms and armour, horses, etc.
The culture ensured that it was shameful to abandon or betray your lord if he had fulfilled his part of the contract, and that you won glory – recorded by the tribal poets – by dying at his side if defeated in battle. Quite a good system.
Of course, at any time you could kill your lord – but the social penalties would make you a cursed man.
It might be difficult to adapt that model to an underground bunker with an aging weak pretty much useless owner… who would not have the respect of his guards… because he has no real skills beyond moving money around and making deals over lunch in a private club….
And then there is this guy…
https://www.techworm.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/mark-zuckerberg-facebook.jpg
He’ll last all of 5 minutes….
I thought he had really many friends?
LIKE!
True: in that model the king has to be a Real Man.
Although Suckerberg looks rather like Octavian/Augustus in the series ‘Rome’, and he came out on top.
effete
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/15/c8/0c/15c80cc3b4fc678c3c6c7af39a480dd0.jpg
Switching to dr one 2… John and Justin and their mates… and some other DelusiSTANIS talking about them p issing on Bill Clinton ….. yowza…. this is a much watch
I have an IDEA!!!!
Let’s pay everyone 100% of their average income over the past 5 years… inflation adjusted… for the rest of their days….
Nobody has to work…. AI will do everything ….
I call this MMA2….
This should buy us at least another 20 years of BAU….
Am I a genius? Am I a genius?
I think so…. I feel like what Edison felt like when he invented the space shuttle…. delighted with myself
Such a profound thought — and my only economics training was Grade 9 Into to Economics. Ha!
I can’t help but think that such schemes to improve the now are only going to hasten the inevitable. After all that goes right to the heart of the dilemma doesn’t it?
Maybe the lefties are right. If we all went hair shirted and vegan then things could continue a bit longer?
I love a burger, me.
Another IDEA!!!
So many light bulbs flicking on I have to put on my sunglasses….
So it’s like this ….
Instead of giving away cash to meth heads… why not just give everyone a voucher for $1000 per month of free petrol/diesel?
That would push demand up increasing the price helping producers… it would not have the downside effect of cratering growth because it’s free….
MMA3
And everyone lives happily ever after.
John…. come on … give us a smile John…. I know you are liking this but you will never admit it because it came from the Fast Eddy One-Man Think Tank ….
yes, Eddy!
but but but…
can I please be one of the first to get the money?
I am willing to sacrifice here and be a test case for this experiment…
thanks in advance for your great idea…
I have a different plans lets pay the top 10% their income for free and kill the bottom 90% fast with nerve gas. That is the politicians, the high level bureaucrats, and such. While letting the AI do the work.
This is fascinating…. and I guarantee you …. will not appear on CNBs Bloomberg Reuters… FT… etc….
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-26/new-rules-bond-game
Dr. Minqi Li,
Professor Economics, University of Utah
https://imgur.com/a/mO6RJvw
I think the estimates of production for later periods are likely high, because they do not take into account the need for the rest of the economy to be functioning. Without governments of oil exporters working, for example, it would be hard to keep order. Angry citizens would try to overthrow the system. Lack of order would create situations at best like Libya.
Donald Trump could be ready to order a strike against Iran, Australian Government figures say
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-27/donald-trump-may-be-prepared-to-strike-iran-sources-say/10037728
Oh dear.
A war with Iran might well be the fire we can’t put out.
Then again maybe war should not be the unexpected outcome of diminishing oil supplies.
sure…
look at all the other attacks that Trump has ordered since January 2017…
I mean, there’s a long list, right?
though I can’t remember them…
my memory must be poor…
He dropped the mother of all bombs and has attacked Syria twice..And has started a global trade war..
I am of two minds on this ..
On one hand… the thought of bombs dropping makes me giddy…. explosions are entertaining!!!
But on the other hand… Iran is the first place I will go when I get my NZ passport … I am sure it is an amazing country with thousands of years of history …. that will be bombed to pieces if Amerukah goes ahead with this …. putting in on the no fly list that includes libya, iraq, affganistan, yemen … and so on….
We’ve just uploaded some excellent deals for Iran on http://www.strifetravel.com
The Brexit crowd is morally bankrupt. None of them were willing to put a bullet to the forehead of Gina Miller, who has zero white blood and has no stake in European Civilization, and has essentially killed Brexit’s most important parts.
A civilization which is not willing to kill to depend itself deserves to die.
Actually Gina Miller has unwittingly given Brexit something of a service.
She insisted everything be done democratically and above board through parliament and not be railroaded through. That has come to pass and all those doubtful MPs have dutifully waved the vast majority of the legislation on byr because the people willed it through their vote.
Indeed a people unwilling to secure a home for their children it doomed.
I used to feel angry about the about the extinction of all northern peoples but now I see it as the elimination of a weak and mentally ill peoples.
I am 100% behind the campaign to eliminate the weak, old and mentally ill. Chicken McNuggets infused with Fentanyl-laced Hollandaise sauce will do the trick
Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make re-ard-ed.
Europe’s plight brings to mind something Robert Heinlein wrote:
No state has an inherent right to survive through conscript troops and, in the long run, no state ever has. Roman matrons used to say to their sons: “Come back with your shield, or on it.” Later on this custom declined. So did Rome.
Yes… YES!!! Kill kill kill….
Democrats join Trump’s GOP in plan for oil and gas drilling on public lands.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/398910-dems-reverse-course-on-white-house-parks-plan
They must have been briefed on the peak oil issue..
Or TPTB have let it be known what their desires are.
Check
The Ministry of Energy (not to be confused with the Ministry of Truth)…. has issued an edict!
Waiting for the MOT to step in with some fake justification and a tag line for this ….
Drill Baby Drill is stale….
Notice how there is consensus from both parties? This indicates a direct order…. from the very top…. kinda like when the big boys determine it’s time for war… a handful of token dissenters is encouraged… to keep up appearances
The US will become ‘minority white’ in 2045, Census projects
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/14/the-us-will-become-minority-white-in-2045-census-projects/
do you believe those projected 2045 numbers?
or do you believe The Collapse is coming sooner than 2045?
perhaps after The Collapse, it will be like 10 whites and a few dozen “other”…
Depends how you read “minority” as to whether it isn’t minority already.
America’s White Collar Middle Class Takes a Terrifying Slide Down the Mobility Ladder
https://www.alternet.org/americas-white-collar-middle-class-takes-terrifying-slide-down-mobility-ladder
Ted Nordhaus Is Wrong: We Are Exceeding Earth’s Carrying Capacity -Richard Heinberg
https://undark.org/article/ted-nordhaus-carrying-capacity-ecology/
In our 200,000 (possibly 300– if the data in Morocco turn out correct) history, our population as homo sapiens has been from 1-10 million, with a near extinction 70,000 years ago.
Of course, we had a robust ecosystem, and were not using 10 grams of hydrocarbons to produce 1 in food.
7.6 billion? With a decimated ecosystem?
Actually, we began burning biomass well before 300,000 years ago. So the energy we had at our disposal was far more than the amount food would provide. We were not up to 10:1 at that point, but we were substantially above 1:1. The amount seemed to vary by part of the globe, with cold areas needing more than warm areas.
But we were not homo sapiens then.
(Homo habilis possibly used fire about 1 million years ago, but it is not certain).
And we had a small population, and massive resources.
I don’t think you are understanding my comment—-
We are living off hydrocarbons for food.
(If it wasn’t for Haber, we would have less than half the current population)
http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/haberbosch.html
A lot of the heat needed in colder regions, and the mountain areas of hotter climes, came from appropriate )animal-derived) clothing, exercise during the day, and people sleeping packed in like sardines in a tin at night in insulated dwellings (turf and straw-covered, felt tents).
So fuel consumption could be limited to very small fires, used for cooking at the same time as heating.
If resources are scarce, and you will die if you run out through carelessness, you work out ways to do at least two things with them.
The modern habit of flicking a switch to burn fuel merely to heat a space, just because one feels a little chilly (or to power air-conditioning), as the spoiled women of our urban civilisation like to do, is simple waste.
A civilisation which does that on a large scale is inviting its own death, always the appropriate penalty for carelessness on this planet.
My daughter (whom I am visiting in the Boston area) remarked at how cheap the power in their apartment complex is, thanks to the solar panels on the roof. So they are running their air conditioner more than they would otherwise. My suspicion is that the apartment complex is getting full retail credit for the electricity they are selling back, even though the benefit to the electricity company is tiny, at best.
There’s actually no census data available from 200 or 300,000 years ago, and the hypothesis that the Toba eruption about 75,000 years ago caused the world human population to decrease to about 1000 is generally considered to be false.
Not only did Homo sapiens survive the alleged bottleneck, but so did H. sapiens neanderthalensis and H. sapiens Denisova, and genes from all three subspecies appear in modern humans outside of Africa today.
I’m not making this up. Indeed, I am borrowing it without attribution from others who have considered, researched and written about the subject..
Also, I wouldn’t get to hung up on the “Homo sapiens are the only humans” idea. It would be rather silly to try to draw a line in the evolutionary sand and declare that a particular individual was human but its parents weren’t. Our ancestors evolved from apes into men, women, and eventually, transexuals, bit by bit. It has been widely accepted for decades that the humans—walking upright on feet like ours and using the hands rather than the teeth to make and use tools, manipulate objects and kill their prey—go back certainly more than 1 million and possibly as far as 2 million years.
Jacob Bronowski considered the Taung baby (the fossilized skull of a young Australopithecus africanus) to be “the primordial infant from which the whole adventure of Man began.” And while he may sound a bit like Elmer Thud teaching geology—”Bwake open a wock, and you can see minewals inside!”—when it comes to human origins, he is erudite, lucid and entertaining.
https://youtu.be/CH7SJf8BnBI
This is an OK article by Richard Heinberg. There is a huge share of the population that thinks like Ted Nordhaus, and someone needs to point out that they are wrong.
The Global Heatwave Is About to Hit Your Wallet
Scorching weather across the globe makes fields too dry for crops, rivers too warm to cool power plants, and leaves wind turbines idle – and it’s pushing commodities prices higher
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-25/heatwave-hits-commodities-from-crops-in-texas-to-french-power
This article is from 2012:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html
“Twenty estimates have been made of the times of the various extinction events in the northern and southern hemispheres. The absolute mean extinction time for the northern hemisphere is 2031.8 and for the southern hemisphere 2047.6 with a final mean extinction time for 3/4 of the earth’s surface of 2039.6. Extinction in the southern hemisphere lags the northern hemisphere by 9 to 29 years. This makes property on the Trans-antarctic mountains of premium value for those people wish to survive the coming methane firestorm for a few decades longer.”
By 2015, the author suggested a way to zap that naughty methane – with laser beams! That would teach it!
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/10/lucy-alamo-projects-hydroxyl-generation-and-atmospheric-methane-destruction.html
“I and some other workers have designed a radio-laser Atmospheric methane destruction system based on the early Russian radio-wave induced conversion of methane to nano-diamonds. This radio-laser system can be installed on nuclear powered boats such as the 40 Russian Arctic ice breakers and start immediate work on destroying the atmospheric methane clouds that are building up in the Arctic.”
Very “James Bond!” But it would create work, too. 😉
From Iraq to Norway to Australia to Ireland to Missouri, drought is the order of the day and the impacts are being felt across agriculture. In Norway it’s been called the worst agricultural crisis in 70 years.
https://youtu.be/pk2_tItM5rE
In Mesopotamia … I can imagine the same discussions would have been very topical back in the day when entire regions were dessicated and farmland produced nothing and was abandoned….
Of course they would not have discussed this tragedy on web sites… nor would they have been driving automobiles or burning coal to generate electricity …
But otherwise … they would have faced similar problems
What we need is a bit of magic. Inform the we*ather of our intentions.
UK, 1976:
“In the last week of August 1976, days after Denis Howell was appointed ‘Minister for Dr *ought’, severe thunderstorms brought rain to some places for the first time in weeks. September and October 1976 were both very wet months, bringing to an end the great dr*ought of 1975–1976.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NT788Xlaq1M
Winter drone footage of place where I live. Gdynia has 250k people, and is part of 3 City metro area of 1 million inhabitants. It’s a summer destination for people who can’t afford foreign vacations.
French peasants were notorious for that in WW1 – but the girl doesn’t have to be a beauty……
I am sure the DPs who were concerned that their daughter’s were not particularly alluring … will be reassured by those comments….
I suppose the key attribute here is youth…. anything under 20 will be considered prime…
BTW – did I mention that in The Painted Bird…. those kalmyk guys r-ap-ed a 4 year old?
One might take this constructively and consider it an opportunity to put a Plan in Place…
Over 700 migrants make violent border crossing into Ceuta
Homemade blow torches and limestone were used to get past officers and into the Spanish enclave in north Africa
A group of over 700 undocumented migrants made a coordinated jump over the border fence separating Morocco from the Spanish enclave of Ceuta on Thursday morning, according to Civil Guard figures. The government delegate in Ceuta said that 602 of them made it through to Spanish territory.
Migrants used homemade blow torches, quicklime, sticks and sharp objects against the police, in what has been described as one of the largest and most violent border crossings in recent years.
Hundreds of migrants were stopped on Moroccan soil, while another group was immediately returned there in an instance of pushback policy that the new Socialist administration of Pedro Sánchez has pledged to eliminate. The government is also analyzing less dangerous alternatives to the concertina wire currently topping the double fence, which is six meters high and 8.4 kilometers long.
A total of 132 migrants required medical assistance, as well as 22 police officers who suffered respiratory problems as a result of the quicklime and homemade sprays. Four officers sustained severe burns, said the Red Cross. Eleven migrants were taken to Ceuta University Hospital due to fractures and wounds caused by the wire.
According to police, the group jumped over the fence at around 6am at Finca Berrocal, one of the weakest sections along the border because there are blind spots where cameras cannot detect migrants. For more than an hour, police and Civil Guard officers tried to contain the group but were overtaken by the migrants who used battery-powered radial saws to cut the fence and homemade weapons to get past the officers.
The migrants who made it into to Ceuta ran through the streets, kissing the ground and crying out in joy. The group headed for a local Temporary Immigration Detention Center (CETI), which is already 15% above capacity.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/26/inenglish/1532599360_950584.html
haha karma for europeans who take part in invasion of Libya
In Europe, the next Ho* lo* caust will be of M*sl*ms. You can see the change in mood occurring.
Chinese factory making Trump 2020 flags
https://imgur.com/a/l3x8zAo
MAGA
s/
The hypocrisy is deafening
My Trump 2024 hat was made in china.
Brexit: Theresa May tells Britain not to worry despite admitting plans to stockpile food, blood and medicine
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-food-medicine-theresa-may-blood-final-say-a8463836.html
There’s no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you’ll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?
LOL!
The empty outlets in the fields of the southwestern Slovakia, the remnants of the boom that preceded the 2008 crash, can not be ressurected and go bankrupt or their purpose is changed:
https://ekonomika.sme.sk/c/20878604/outlet-pri-voderadoch-bankrotuje-nenasli-investora.html?ref=trz
we can dig through history for this stuff as far back as you want to go, so far you haven’t mentioned the japanese, chinese, koreans the spanish conquistadors or the early english settlers in australia-and why not chuck in a few bible passages for good measure?
We all know this stuff happened
A….is it relevant to ongoing discussions
B…..does everyone want to keep reading it
C….will it do any good
and enough already!!
“President Donald Trump on Wednesday secured concessions from Europe, averting a trade war, Dow Jones reported, citing a European Union official.
“The report came shortly before Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker were scheduled to brief the press at a joint conference in the White House Rose Garden. The Europeans agreed to lower industrial tariffs and import more U.S. soybeans, Dow Jones reported.
“The EU also agreed to work on more U.S. liquid natural gas exports, the newswire reported.”
Trump essentially trying to blackmail Europe into buying US LNG….
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/us-bonds-and-fixed-income-fresh-economic-data-in-focus.html
US LNG tends to be expensive relative to Russian piped gas, if U S producers earn an adequate profit.
“Russia is preparing the most radical shakeup of its oil-tax system since 1999. The changes will allow the nation’s producers to export crude and oil products duty-free. Starting next year, Russia will gradually lower export duties on crude and oil products until they are fully abolished in 2024. At the same time, it will raise oil-extraction taxes by the same amount, keeping the fiscal burden for producers and exporters steady, Bloomberg reported.
“For refineries, the tax shift may be more painful as it raises the price of each barrel they process. To stem losses and prevent domestic fuel-price growth, the government will offer tax breaks to several types of refineries, including Siberian plants that are far from large ports, as well as facilities investing at least 60 billion rubles ($950 million) in upgrades between 2016 and 2024. The government will also offer relief to refineries where high-octane gasoline accounts for at least 10% of total output and to the refining subsidiaries of oil producers subject to international sanctions. That means basically all major Russian oil companies will receive tax breaks for their refineries.
“The tax overhaul is Russia’s second attempt to remove export duties on crude and oil products, after an earlier effort in 1996. Just three years after the move, the government was forced to reinstate the levies as it scrabbled for funds after the 1998 financial crisis.”
https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/90485/russia-plans-biggest-oil-tax-overhaul-in-20-years
“Iranian leaders are pushing to contain a deepening economic crisis that is slashing the buying power of Iranians and pressuring Tehran’s ruling elite even before the bite of looming U.S. sanctions.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-need-bread-and-butter-iranians-under-pressure-in-flailing-economy-1532548684
“Saudi nationals are borrowing two to three times more money than last year as government moves to shore up public finances push living costs through the roof. Since the beginning of 2018, the government has raised fuel and utility prices, introduced value added tax and imposed a levy on some temporary foreign workers not under an employer’s sponsorship… the latest official loan data suggest the policy is hitting ordinary citizens in their wallets.”
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/banking-finance/401458-saudi-household-borrowing-soars-amid-rising-costs
“Venezuela will remove five zeroes from the bolivar currency rather than the three zeroes originally planned, President Nicolas Maduro said on Wednesday, in an effort to keep up with inflation projected to reach 1 million percent this year.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuela-to-remove-five-zeroes-from-ailing-currency-idUSKBN1KF36V
that just confirms the obvious–that it is an insoluble problem, that we are all locked into
venezuela is just further down the line than most, but we will all get there eventually because we are all on the same infinite debt trap
people scream for solutions, but ultimately there isnt one—we are too many people chasing too few resources
so Maduro isn’t to blame—he doesn’t know what to do–he just mouths words and crosses his fingers. The greeks do the same. The USA is a debtor nation and the same thing will happen there—that’s when the world crash will come because global economics are tied to the oil-dollar.
A troup of monkeys could run a country when the economy is expanding
economists only make sense in an expanding economy, in a contracting economy, economics turns to nonsense—but no one understands why
It’s hilarious, in a depressing kind of way, how left-wingers in the UK and the US lauded Chavez’s corrupt, recklessly overspending Venezuela of 2013 as some sort of socialist utopia and now the right-wingers are seizing on the Venezuela of 2018 as an example of the evils of socialism.
I’ve had my fill of politics now. Talking to someone who is beholden to a single political ideology is like to talking to a computer programme because their critical thinking only operates within the narrow confines of the ideology it serves, which is to say that they are not really thinking critically at all. It creeps me out. And the smugness that goes with the unwavering belief that they hold the moral high ground and know what’s best for people – ugh!
if i were you i’d stay on your island and get ready to repel all invaders
oh—and don’t forget to add Mc in front of your name
Aye, Norman – I will.
now you’ll blend into the tartan and shortbread background
Take 18th century Britain, above all England: the aristocracy were utterly corrupt, extravagant and wasteful, and regularly stole huge sums from government funds -particularly military and navy – but thanks to the massive, and growing, inputs from Empire, and technological improvements in agriculture and industry, all was hunky dory, more or less.
Now the Brits are floundering, with Empire and resources all gone; only the intellectually bankrupt political class – Left and Right – remaining.
By the way, the radical Left in Spain believe that Maduro has simply been sabotaged by the US and that the Venezuelan policy of social spending is correct and viable. They haven’t a clue about the energy aspect. ‘Revolution always has enemies’, etc…..
Thinking politically, ideologically, drives out awareness of physical issues.
But civilisation is not a moral construct, it is a physical one.
Perhaps cut expenses and seize all royal family assets — and toss Liz onto the street?
you have to think of buck house as sheltered accommodation
According to MSM, Maduro was to be gone several years ago.
Obviously, the analysis is not correct, or ideological skewed.
I haven’t a clue, and don’t have any contacts there now.
to me that seems to be the main problem
we based political decisions on ideology, not facts because facts can be less comfortable in the short term, whereas ideology screws up in the long term
but politics is about short termism
The government missed its chance to resolve their lack of oil revenue when the opportunity remained possible. Nothing to do now but watch them sink. Pity!
I think the problem is more basic. The resources that they have available require too much upgrading to be useful at market prices.
Removing zeros is a fix for the problem, temporarily.
Living on a small fixed income and selling my work for absurdly low prices (having nothing to do with market prices, but with what I sense the buyers want or are prepared to spend) has been working to add a margin of resilience and a ridiculous sense of “plenty.” it’s the market prices that I could do without. As to a low, non market version of industrial production, I’d leave it partly to the children, since they don’t need to be paid.
This is one of those ideas that is so simple it has one shaking one’s head… why didn’t I think of that???
You got hyper inflation … no problem…. just keep stripping off zeros…..
Very similar to the $1000 petrol credit…. a very simple idea…. yet it took the FE One-Man Think Tank to come up with it…
Sadi Arabia needs tax revenue from oil!
KSA needs 99% few humans. In one confined nation with only a few cities this is a piece of cake. A service they can buy from one of of several solution providers.
Build the city and close the gates.
The desert takes care of the rest.
The Saudis could go back to the camel-hair and blood patties they used to eat. With some dates now and then it surely wouldn’t be too bad. Arabian Austerity?
https://fanack.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/population_SA_population-growth_001_02.jpg
“My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel”
A delusiSTANi!
Not quite…
His son will eat a camel…. then probably be captured and ra ape d… then skinned alive… and roasted in the sun … then salted… and eaten by bad guys…. his ball sack skin will be made into a supple purse and presented to the chief of the bad guys wife.
Eddy—maybe you need a hobby to take your mind off things
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/26/topiarist-angry-vicious-drunks-trying-have-sex-privet-lady-hedge/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1532621585
He needs to get one of those rubber dolls….
wouldn’t his hedge cutters puncture it?
That’s very good, Norman!
Could pay for the heavy duty version — this one can stand up to The Big Fat Man with Hairy Back and Knuckles…
you could volunteer for the destruction test of course
Interesting combination! I wonder how much fiber the camel hair provides. What else?
i believe it has the same dietary benefit as biting your fingernails
Similar to a chicken burger at KFC… except that they use hair shed from dogs
sounds slightly more nutritious than Haitian mud cookies.
As with Iran, the Saudis don’t need everything to depend on oil, although in their case they cannot feed the 30 million people without importing. Just imagine the fun when they have sold their oil off or no one can afford it. It’s going to be probably the world’s biggest basket case.
Simply having a low price for oil pushes Saudi Arabia in the direction of being the world’s biggest basket case.
it already is
30 m people living in a country that, without oil, can support 1m at most from its own resources
of that 30 m, most of their young men are unemployable, because there are no real jobs outside the oil industry, and they resent working anyway.
pre oil–as i understand it, there was very little employment as we would understand it—nothing against that, it was just the way the country was built, except it wasnt a country—just regions of warring tribes, They didnt have the necessary energy available to hold together as a country
oil changed that—and as oil goes, so will the country—as will all other oil dependent countries in their turn
The biggest problem for all the oil rich countries is they stop relying on what else they naturally have to function, to grow food and get ahead. Oil allows them to spend up and boost their population way beyond sustainability. So when oil is missing from their inventory, they flounder. Big nations like the USA can strong arm the little guys to keep the oil flowing and they have no hesitation to do that.
Fossil fuels make a huge difference. Without them, citizens can do very little. They can cut down trees, but even this quickly reaches limits.
It was the ascendency of coal back 250-300 years ago that saved England’s forests. They would have all been cut down. I recall noticing a town in southern Italy that had a big bare cordon around it. It defined the daily walking distance to get firewood.
$1000 oil credit… panacea….
Once again Iran can give people enough of their own currency to buy anything locally available. The oil revenue gets external goods and services, but the domestic economy should be able to feed everyone regardless of their oil troubles. It’ll all be gone one day anyway so they might as well get used to it now. Get in practice.
With supply chains involved, there is likely very little avalIlable with only local currency. This is where the probzlem arises.
Could well be. Even with sanctions Iran cannot go back to the old [maybe] sustainable ways now.
Let’s think this through…
Once hyperinflation hits… no foreign company will supply anything to a country …
With Iran that means spare parts for everything from oil derricks to autos to the grid to refineries to light bulbs … everything ….. will not be available.
They would not be able to buy computers .. not even a tooth brush
And because Iran needs petro chemicals to farm… and the gear to create PCs from gas… that means there would be no food production …
So there would be nothing to buy…
Oh …. and they wouldn’t be able to print money … because — you guessed it John… the printing presses require ink and parts that are imported… and nobody will sell these to the Iranians because their currency is worthless.
You do know that this MMA has been tried before … it did not work well in Germany….
Fast Eddy has once again made a fool of you John. You are the laughing stock of FW right now … I can hear The Core … they are laughing so hard at you that their intestines are poking out their sphincters…
There’s another bus in a couple of hours John…..
Beijing has pledged to bankroll $14.7 billion in South Africa and provide the country’s power utility and logistics corporation with loans. The South African rand firmed by more than one percent on news of the investment.
https://www.rt.com/business/434184-china-billions-investments-south-africa/
ah SA has resources, smart China. Muscling in of the IMF racket.
LOL SA is about to get a lesson on why IQ matters
yet financial crisis of 2008 was done by high iq bankers
Good point. Not to say there is any hope, but the knee jerk equating of black skin with unusual stupidity serves no remotely useful purpose that I can see. People should try avoiding it just to see what happens.
Kinda smart in a very small way—
Smart enough to do the con, but too stupid to realize the results.
Lets be honest– smart people are not in financials.
Limited oil supplies and rapidly rising demand from Chia and India played a role as well.
Yes, but the supposedly smart people didn’t (as they could have) sense that this was the kind of thing which was likely to happen. or that something was hideously unstable about the the system, going very far back.
To those who condemn this site for its negative outlook, I would like to say I come by here every few days just in case somebody has turned up with a viable plan for our salvation. I don’t mean my salvation in particular, just some viable plan to avoid catastrophic collapse. I have seen a few attempts at a rational response, but the problem is they usually assume a rational, adult and reasonable discussion of the issues are possible in the world of realpolitik.
In my circle, trying to even introduce facts to the fantasy-land that passes for reality today is just a waste of breath. Been trying for a while now, and in my experience the more ‘educated/sophisticated/comfortable’ the person the more deluded/captured/shallow the response.
If you have a plan that will work in theory then you are 10% of the way there. The recent discussion of the venal nature of mankind seems to argue against anything other than tribalism as a future response to adversity.
So bring a plan to OFW and get it past the ‘auditors’ if you can…. I am wishing there be something ‘we’ can do but I am not hopeful.
PS some people think if we cut down on plastic bags then we are the road to salvation!!
Tribalism certainly works; when it doesn’t, you need a more or less centralised kingdom, and that implies trade and expansion or failure, and leads to….. where we are today.
Alexander the Great made an interesting speech to the people on the borders of Macedonia, referring back to the days when they were herdsmen and farmers; tough people, but vulnerable to raids from ferocious neighbouring tribes: ‘You lived in constant fear of death, enslavement, the capture of your children and women, and the loss of your flocks.’
‘And then my father the great king taught you how to be soldiers, how to fight in formation and the proper use of arms, how to build and fortify towns and saved you so that now you need fear no one.’ However, it didn’t stop there, as Alexander then used them to fight in his crazy Empire……
The same thing happened in the 11th century in the Basque lands: the kings cleverly realised that their people (ferociously violent and cruel, by the way) who had beaten off the Arabs and Berbers would never survive as simple mountaineers and herdsmen surrounded by so many enemies, often more civilised (ie more powerful with higher energy resources!) and therefore imported Frenchmen, mostly from the South, to build fortified towns, roads, bridges,etc, so as to match developments in neighbouring kingdoms. Innkeepers too:wine and civilisation together – traditionally, no man from our part of Spain ever drank water – that was for the ladies!
The old tribes of Germany and Gaul had to keep broad wastelands around their borders – to try to settle in them was death – as a security measure.
Something like this happened in northern Italy as well. By about 1100 things were settled enough for the local Duke or Bishop to secure his territory by founding a ring of new towns at the edges of their influence. A whole lot of towns were created between 1100 and 1250, all set out like Roman camps with the cardus and decumanus axial roads. Quite a few of these towns still have their fortified gates etc visible – at least when I was there, a while ago now.
Plan: release bio-warfare agent kill 99.99% of humans. Problem solved for a time.
It is hard enough finding people on the internet who get it… there are probably around a dozen … no more than 20 … on FW who get it…. and given that anyone who is curious would likely find FW… that may be the total community…
So finding someone in the physical world would be like finding a needle floating around in outer space…
And yes agree — the more intelligent — the more educated… the more invested they are in not getting it.
More get it than you think, they just put it on the back burner and/or move on since it’s like death itself, unsolvable. TINA!
Overshoot came out nearly 40 years ago.
https://monoskop.org/images/9/92/Catton_Jr_William_R_Overshoot_The_Ecological_Basis_of_Revolutionary_Change.pdf
Yes many get pieces… but very few understand the fundamental nature of the problem – energy… there are those who remain mired in the muck of the GG WWW EVs and renewable energy are all a giant ho ax…. some still believe POTUS has power… that there is democracy … some believe the MSM exists to inform them…. etc….
A very small handful are able to see the entire picture….
Reports in from Venezuela that starving people in that country, the beneficiaries of those glories of Bolivarian socialism, are now breaking into the zoos and butchering the animals in order to be able to eat them.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/08/17/venezuelas-starving-people-are-now-eating-the-zoo-animals-the-parisians-had-the-german-excuse/#bf2f7f1d2cc1
This Curve / Chart was “Classified” at one time…
This is from the 1950’s
Notice the chart has a special notation around 2001 about Saudi Arabia… (9-11)
They have known this for a long time.
Oil is a military, strategic commodity.
A lot of people are going to die because of this.
Unregulated, Uncontrolled Growth Vs Finite Resource…
For the match of the millennium…
https://imgur.com/a/SLrF3fc
Another day, another stimulus announcement by China.
One day after Beijing threw in the towel, and in addition to monetary easing announced it would be far more “proactive” in fiscally stimulating the country, Chinese banks received notice from regulators on Wednesday that a core capital requirement will be eased in order to support lending, as Beijing uses the ongoing trade war as a scapegoat to unleash another massive stimulus – think Shanghai Accord just without the foreign central bankers and without the US.
This is merely the latest in a wild scramble of easing initiatives unleashed by China in the past three months, and summarized in the chart below.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-25/china-announces-new-stimulus-measures
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/adults-born-from-wartime-assault-in-bosnia-search-for-paths-to-justice
Violence assumed a gender-targeted form through the use of rape during the Bosnian War. While men from all ethnic groups committed r ape, the great majority of rapes were perpetrated by Bosnian Serb forces of the Army of the Republika Srpska (VRS) and Serb paramilitary units, who used genocidal r ape as an instrument of terror as part of their programme of ethnic cleansing.[1][2][3] Estimates of the number of women r aped during the war range between 12,000 and 50,000.[4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ra
pe_during_the_Bosnian_War
And why stop with women?
Men and boys
A lesser known form of r ape during the war was that which was perpetrated against men and boys. Though no concrete number has been determined, it has been estimated that some 3,000 were ra ped during the conflict.[54] However, it is assumed that hundreds, if not thousands, of victims have never come forward due to their deaths as well as the stigma regarding se xual abuse.[55][54] Many male victims were found to have been ostracized from their communities, often being stripped of their masculinity or accused of ho mosexuality due to the predominantly masculinist culture in Bosnia.[54] Other victims feared that coming forward would result in further abuse.[56][57]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R
ape_during_the_Bosnian_War#Men_and_boys
And why s..top with women?
M.en and b.oys
A lesser known form of r a…..pe during the war was that which was perp.etrated against men and boys.
Though no concrete number has been determined, it has been estimated that some 3,000 were r…..a ped during the conflict.[54] However, it is assumed that hundreds, if not thousands, of victims have never come forward due to their deaths as well as the stigma regarding s….e xual a…..buse.[55][54] Many male victims were found to have been ostr…acized from their communities, often being s….tripped of their m….asculinity or accused of ho mos…..exu….al…….ity due to the predominantly ma…sculinist culture in Bosnia.[54] Other victims feared that coming forward would result in further ab..use.[56][57]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R
ape_during_the_Bosnian_War#Men_and_boys
The French under de Gaul used African troops called Ghoums to do the same thing in occupied Italy and Germany.
Also, Moroccan Spahis – Franco also used them to punish Republican areas in Spain.
A sentimental film was made not long ago about the bravery and suffering of the Moroccans, but for some reason didn’t show them doing what they do best…..
Naturally, the Ghoums and Spahis robbed the peasants blind, too. Country people were their easiest targets, worth noting.
Official histories have mostly ignored this unsavoury aspect of the liberation from the Nazis and Fascists, but it is often mentioned in honest memoirs about the war.
The American occupiers, being well-supplied with stockings, chocolate, and all kinds of food and medicines, didn’t have to rape and could easily do deals with women who needed a ‘friend’ to feed themselves and their families. Families would offer up an attractive young girl as a live-in mistress to keep her fed and warm,and them into the bargain, a deal which worked for everyone involved.
The moral of the story is … if you are a DP… make sure you have a hot young daughter … you may be able to pimp her out to the bad guys and stay alive
Or try earnestly to die before you get that far.
I dream of opening the post box … and feeling a soft bulging packet…. and thinking … did someone mistakenly post a kg of co caine to Fast?????
Eagerly rushing back to the house…. making sure MF is not around… slitting open the packet .. rolled up 20 dollar bill in hand….
And lo and behold there is a note with the powder — Fentanyl – keep out of reach of children — consider taking when BAU blows up and the bad guys are at the gate — please share with Jan and other DelusiSTANIS if you feel it is appropriate. Good Luck Mr Fast Eddy. Your friend and admirer, Ben Bernanke. Over and Out.
you forget to add another one
partition of india
After the Partition of India, during October–November 1947 in the Jammu region of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, a large number of Muslims were massacred and others driven away to West Punjab. The killings were carried out by extremist Hindus and Sikhs, aided and abetted by the forces of the Dogra State headed by the Maharaja Hari Singh. The activists of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) played a key role in planning and executing the riots.
Subsequently, many non-Muslims, estimated as over 20,000, were massacred by Pakistani tribesmen and soldiers, in the Mirpur region of today’s Azad Kashmir.
Similarly, many Hindus and Sikhs were also massacred in the Rajouri area of Jammu division.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_Jammu_massacres
Radioactive Cesium-137 From Fukushima Found In California Wine
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-22/radioactive-cesium-137-fukushima-found-california-wine
Keeping in mind Fukushima is a contained situation …. and did not involve spent fuel ponds…
Fukushima currently is like a speck on a pimple on a a blue whale’s ar se.
Yet the radiation has spread … and is in the food chain thousands of km away….
Fast forward to the end of BAU…. 4000 fuel ponds… roaring … spewing enormous amounts of cesium etc into the jet stream and oceans….. completely out of control…. spreading around the planet
There is a silver lining to this …. when the electricity goes off… all food supplies will be consumed in short order… if there are crops in any fields they will be soon gone…. so the cesium will not get into the food chain (because there is no food chain yuck yuck)….
BUT… before anyone gets too excited and breathes a sigh of relief…. humans do need to drink water … otherwise we die….
So along with all the fecal matter than settles into the water supply when the sewage systems stop…. you will also be ingesting cesium etc… with every mouthful …..
This is a visual of the spread of relatively minimal cesium etc… emanating from the damaged (but under control) cores at Fukushima….. multiple by that by many many many thousands…. and you start to get the picture….
https://theboldcorsicanflame.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/fukushima__noaa_rad_plume.jpg
http://static.damnlol.com/media/f03f417c59df734e73a72a925034e523.jpg
FB share price plunges 20%
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-25/facebook-shares-implode-after-revenue-user-growth-disappoint
In 2015, German news magazine Der Spiegel reported that German historian Miriam Gebhardt “believes that members of the US military raped as many as 190,000 German women by the time West Germany regained sovereignty in 1955, with most of the assaults taking place in the months immediately following the US invasion of Nazi Germany. The author bases her claims in large part on reports kept by Bavarian priests in the summer of 1945.”[56]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_during_the_occupation_of_Germany
We must keep in mind that this occurred … in spite of the fact that this was an organized military … with a chain of command… with military police and courts and prisons….
Now imagine unleashing these men …. without any rules…. into the general population
In 2015, German news magazine Der Spiegel reported that German historian Miriam Gebhardt “believes that members of the US military ra….ped as many as 190,000 German women by the time West Germany regained sovereignty in 1955, with most of the a.ssaults taking place in the months immediately following the US invasion of N…azi Ge.rmany. The author bases her claims in large part on reports kept by Bavarian priests in the summer of 1945.”[56]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R………….ape_during_the_occupation_of_Germany
We must keep in mind that this occurred … in spite of the fact that this was an organized military … with a cha.in of co.mmand… with milit.ary polic.e and cou.rts and pr.isons….
Now imagine unlea..shing these men …. without any rules…. into the general population
it’s another of my rants—that armies go self employed when their wages don’t get paid
that has happened throughout history
The thing is …. those soldiers were still being paid…
Imagine the horror show they will inflict … when they are not paid… and they are hungry….
This is my favourite!
I will quote from that passage in the note which Your Honours will find on Page 4, Paragraph 4, of the document book.
“Women and young girls are vilely outraged in all the occupied areas.
In the Ukrainian village of Borodayevka, in the Dniepropetrovsk region, the fascists violated every one of the women and girls.
In the village of Berezovka, in the region of Smolensk, drunken German soldiers assaulted and carried off all the women and girls between the ages of sixteen and thirty.
In the city of Smolensk, the German Command opened a brothel for officers in one of the hotels, into which hundreds of women and girls were driven; they were mercilessly dragged down the street by their arms and hair.
Near the town of Borissov in Bielorussia, seventy- five women and girls attempting to flee at the approach of the German troops, fell into their hands. The Germans first raped and then savagely murdered thirty-six of their number. By order of a German officer named Hummer, the soldiers marched L. I. Melchukova, a sixteen-year-old girl, into the forest, where they raped her. A little later some other women who had also been dragged into the forest saw some boards near the trees and the dying Melchukova nailed to the boards. The Germans had cut off her breasts in the presence of these women, among whom were V. I. Alperako, and V. H. Bereznikova.
More? http://www.nizkor.org/hweb/imt/tgmwc/tgmwc-07/tgmwc-07-59-14.shtml
But … BUT …. when BAU ends….
Everyone will be so well-behaved…. military men … cops… general bad guys… formerly good guys turned bad guys in order to survive…
Will join hands with the sheeple … the wonderful and optimistic organic farmers…. and their wives and daughters…
And rejoice…. as they sing … Koombaya….. Koombaya….
It will be a magical moment!
Kinda like this … only so much better
When you grow up your whole life in a human zoo, and that is what civilization is to most people, as long as you are fed, or have 100 equivalent oil slaves, these kind of weird anomalies arise. I would like to see Siegfrieid and Roy walk out onto the savanna and try their act with a pride of hungry lions. Sadly the ego of most people will not let them question their own actions. Maybe we are the Lokis of our tribes.
‘I would like to see Siegfrieid and Roy walk out onto the savanna and try their act with a pride of hungry lions.’
We are pampered babies (even the big time outdoors folks and DPs…) … about to be left in the bush … alone….
you forget to add another massacre at almost same level
Srebrenica massacre
was the July 1995 genocide[8] of more than 8,000[1][9] Muslim Bosniaks, mainly men and boys, in and around the town of Srebrenica during the Bosnian War.
The killings were perpetrated by units of the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska (VRS) under the command of Ratko Mladić. The Scorpions, a paramilitary unit from Serbia, who had been part of the Serbian Interior Ministry until 1991, also participated in the massacre.[6][10] In April 1993 the United Nations (UN) had declared the besieged enclave of Srebrenica—in the Drina Valley of northeastern Bosnia—a “safe area” under UN protection. In July 1995, UNPROFOR’s 370[11] Dutchbat soldiers in Srebrenica failed to prevent the town’s capture by the VRS—and the subsequent massacre
Let’s get some meat on those bones:
Ra..pe and abuse of civilians
Thousands of women and girls suffered ra..pe and s..exual abuse and other forms of to.rture. According to the testimony of Zumra Šehomerovic:
The Serbs began at a certain point to take girls and young women out of the group of refugees. They were ra..ped. The ra..pes often took place under the eyes of others and sometimes even under the eyes of the children of the mother. A Dutch soldier stood by and he simply looked around with a Walkman on his head. He did not react at all to what was happening. It did not happen just before my eyes, for I saw that personally, but also before the eyes of us all. The Dutch soldiers walked around everywhere. It is impossible that they did not see it.
There was a woman with a small baby a few months old. A Chetnik told the mother that the child must stop crying. When the child did not stop crying, he snatched the child away and cut its throat. Then he laughed. There was a Dutch soldier there who was watching. He did not react at all.
I saw yet more frightful things. For example, there was a girl, she must have been about nine years old. At a certain moment some Chetniks recommended to her brother that he ra…pe the girl. He did not do it and I also think that he could not have done it for he was still just a child. Then they murdered that young boy. I have personally seen all that. I really want to emphasize that all this happened in the immediate vicinity of the base. In the same way I also saw other people who were mu..rdered. Some of them had their throats cut. Others were beh..eaded.[67]
Testimony of Ramiza Gurdić:
I saw how a young boy of about ten was killed by Serbs in Dutch uniform. This happened in front of my own eyes. The mother sat on the ground and her young son sat beside her. The young boy was placed on his mother’s lap. The young boy was k.illed. His head was cut off. The body remained on the lap of the mother. The Serbian soldier placed the head of the young boy on his knife and showed it to everyone. … I saw how a pregnant woman was slaughtered. There were Serbs who stabbed her in the stomach, cut her open and took two small children out of her stomach and then beat them to death on the ground. I saw this with my own eyes.[68]
Testimony of Kada Hotić:
There was a young woman with a baby on the way to the bus. The baby cried and a Serbian soldier told her that she had to make sure that the baby was quiet. Then the soldier took the child from the mother and cut its throat. I do not know whether Dutchbat soldiers saw that. … There was a sort of fence on the left-hand side of the road to Potocari. I heard then a young woman screaming very close by (4 or 5 meters away). I then heard another woman beg: “Leave her, she is only nine years old.” The screaming suddenly stopped. I was so in shock that I could scarcely move. … The rumour later quickly circulated that a nine year old girl had been r…aped.[69]
The important thing is to note that these people lived in the same villages and towns for many years as close neighbours, but with secret hatred and contempt.
In times of stress, humans see others through the eyes of ideology, not humanity, and the thirst for blood – once activated – is insatiable.
Conclusion?
Minimise your risk of this kind of violence and live in an area without a significant mixing of races and religions.
Inter-communal massacres in India are also worth studying.
Rape of men is a common instrument of war in Africa – The Guardian did a big article on that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srebrenica_massacre#Ra………..pe_and_abuse_of_civilians
Doing a little research on the group mentioned in the Painted Bird… the correct name is Kalmyk…
The Massacre of Grischino was a war crime committed by members of the Red Army in February 1943 in the eastern Ukrainian towns of Krasnoarmeyskoye, Postyschewo and Grischino. A total of 596 prisoners of war, nurses, construction workers and female communication personnel (Nachrichtenhelferinnen) perished.[1] The Wehrmacht Untersuchungsstelle also known as WuSt (Wehrmacht criminal investigating authority), announced that among the victims were 406 soldiers of the Wehrmacht, 58 members of the Organisation Todt (including two Danish nationals), 89 Italian soldiers, 9 Romanian soldiers, 4 Hungarian soldiers, 15 German civil officials, 7 German civilian workers and 8 Ukrainian volunteers.
The places were overrun by the Soviet 4th Guards Tank Corps on the night of 10 and 11 February 1943. After their recapture by the 5th SS Panzer Division Wiking with the support of the 333rd Infantry and 7th Panzer Divisions on 18 February 1943, the German soldiers discovered numerous corpses. Many of the bodies were horribly mutilated, ears and noses cut off and genitals amputated and stuffed into their mouths.
The breasts of some of the nurses had been cut off, the women being brutally raped. A German military judge who was at the scene stated in an interview during the 1970s that he saw a female body with her legs spread-eagled and a broomstick rammed into her genitals. In the cellar of the main train station, around 120 Germans had been herded into a large storage room and then mowed down with machine guns. While a large part of the investigation file is lost, some investigation evidence remained in a Foreign Office brochure currently stored in the German federal state archive (
This is what the US Shale Oil industry currently looks like.
https://d3hxt1wz4sk0za.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Top-US-Shale-Companies-Q1-2018-Free-Cash-Flow-768×490.png?x65756
“Top U.S. Shale Oil Fields Decline Rate Reaches New Record…. Half Million Barrels Per Day”
https://srsroccoreport.com/top-u-s-shale-oil-fields-decline-rate-reaches-new-record-half-million-barrels-per-day/#comment-65609
WOW!
Mattel is cutting over 2,200 workers after sales plummeted in the Toys “R” Us aftermath
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/mattel-slashes-workforce-as-sales-sink-on-toys-r-us-demise
And the media told us Toys R US went under because all the sales were going online..Busted!
Funny that…
Not to worry – there are plenty of jobs for these laid off employees – America has record low unemployment…. employers will be queued up to offer them good positions — they will all have multiple offers allowing them to play employers off against one another and realize higher salaries.
I should give some comments on the International Conference on Complex Systems that I attended yesterday. As with any of these events, a person learns a little, but not a whole lot. Some of what a person learns is from chance meetings with other attendees.
I was sitting at lunch, talking to some other participant (a programmer) about the narrow views of each presentation. Each person was doing research in a very narrow silo. He observered, “The goal is to get lots of papers published quickly. No one wants to undertake too big a project. It is all about local maxima. How do I maximize my earnings, given what is rewarded by my university and peer group?”
I first heard a presentation by Carmen Reinhart on causes of economic crises. ( She is very well known.) The talk never once mentioned energy. Afterwards, there was time for only two questions. I asked one of them. I asked why she never mentioned any energy issues. I pointed out that one chart showed a big cliff in 1914, but she didn’t mention Peak coal in UK that year. She had also pointed out that China was doing much better than Greece, since 2007. I pointed out that one economy depended on coal, the other on oil, and that oil prices had risen to much higher levels in recent years.
Needless to say, she was not really happy about my comment. She said, “We sometimes look at a commodity price time series.” There were a few attendees who came up to me afterward, to talk more about energy issue.
Peter Turchin talked later in the morning. He was mostly focused on his current project of trying to collect a massive amount of data on 34 historical economies around the world. The intension is that they will be able to test various hypotheses as to what is causing the collapses. In fact, they have tested a few hypothesis already, with the limited data they have.
There was no time for general questions from the audience, but I was one of about 20 from the audience who came up afterward to ask questions. I asked about looking at energy, and he said that was on his list of things to sometime look at. He didn’t seem much interested learning any more about the issue, which he referred to as “White’s hypothesis”. His primary interest seemed to be recruiting and training a large number of graduate student assistants to help with the project.
There was another talk I liked. It was during the concurrent sessions. It was about workers seeming to be productive (higher paid), when they were collaborating with many others from different fields, rather that working with a large army of workers in the same field. I thought that collaborating on the internet would maximize this.
“Needless to say, she was not really happy about my comment. She said, “We sometimes look at a commodity price time series.”
I wish I could have seen her reaction…
her answer makes it seem as if she considers energy resources to be just like any other commodities…
not surprising…
Carmen Reinhart is slender, in her early 60s. She was wearing tight blue jeans and a sports jacket. Her fingernails were perhaps her most distinctive part. She had hot pink fingernails that extended a half inch beyond her finger tips. Also fuzzy black high heels. She really didn’t like problems with her theory being brought up. Afterward, I gave her my card. She did not act at all interested.
“fuzzy black high heels” oh my.
They go well with tight blue jeans.
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1099135/images/o-REINHART-ROGOFF-MISTAKES-facebook.jpg
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1099135/images/o-REINHART-ROGOFF-MISTAKES-facebook.jpg
Hmmmm…. I am having a rethink on that lap dance thing ….
I think better that I get my leather throng outfit and have M Fast oil me up …. after shaving my chest…. and Carmen dips into her book royalties to compensate me and I’ll give her a lap dance….
I’ll bring along The Gimp … because he’ll do just about anything … for FREE…. and she is surely on for that …The Gimp gets really excited by Stilettos and tight Jeans on a 70 year old
Gail … did you get her card? Can you pass along the info…
If not JHK… maybe you could organize this …..
Maybe there were only tight because of the incontinence diaper?
She could be the entertainment at the Kunstler suite…. I bet she brings a collapsible golden pole with her to conferences… She’s a bit past her used by date but what the hell… if the brings the pills and blow she’ll do
LOL I can actual see this.
I’ll have a lap dance from Carmen …. just so that I can mention it at the next dinner pahti I attend….
And I was planning to get on a plane and gate crash this (hoping to get invited to the disco ball party in Kuntsler’s suite)…..
I am so happy I had second thoughts… sounds like there is very little to be learned there.
They should have called it the DelusiSTANI Conference.
There is a clear lack of understanding of energy everywhere. Here in New Zealand, the government recently announced funding for a project where the intent is to produce hydrogen for use as an energy source for trucks and cars.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/environment/105601987/could-hydrogen-turn-taranaki-into-the-norway-of-the-pacific
Which strikes me as being utterly nonsensical given that hydrogen can only wind up being a net energy negative carrier, not a positive source.
That makes me feel hopeful.
Well not really….
But it does have that effect on others…. I guarantee you that people in NZ who take pride in being ‘informed’… who listen to RNZ…. and read the Herald… and watch the news on the teevee….
Will be chattering about this at dinner parties… at the water cooler… over lunch with friends….
It will be one of the topics du jour….
Such people are excellent at absorbing thoughts from the MSM.
And everyone else is just puffing on a meth pipe.
Anybody who tries to point out how ridiculous it all is on the basis of fundamental physics and basic arithmetic can be expected to be shot down with such comments as “you can’t tell the future” or suggestions of one being too negative.
Such is the way that lambs lead themselves to slaughter.
‘we’ve got to start somewhere’…. is a popular refrain….. followed by ‘a calculator has many times the power of a computer that used to fill an entire room’
There is not cure for this sort of thing.
Facts
1. You can’t tell the future
2. You are too negative
3. Baaaaaaaaaaaa
Curt, the whole country is connected by water. Sail boats yes, nuclear yes, hydrogen pointless. A better liquid to put nuclear power in transport is synthetic methanol.
Natural gas to hydrogen to high pressure bottle to fuel cell to electric to run trucks, really? How about natural gas to high pressure bottle to ICE engine to run trucks? NZ government has zero science back room support staff.
Love the writing and the slightly resigned tone.
It smacks of disappointment….
One might well get a research grant for ‘Social Inequality as a Cause of Collapse’ – very fashionable just now – but not for energy matters.
In the classic Persian ‘Elephant in the Dark’ tale, each ‘clever’ person misunderstands what he has felt – the tail, trunk, legs, ears and comes to a false conclusion.
But in this case, they are not even bothering to go in to the room and have a feel.
Some guy from England is talking about feeling up elephants, truth is stranger than fiction. 😉
Tesla whistleblower to meet with SEC, attorney says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/tesla-whistleblower-to-meet-with-sec-attorney-says.html
After a fender-bender with his Tesla Model S last February, Tor Havard Wiig figured he’d be back on the road within a week or two. Five months on, he’s still waiting on parts—and he’s ready to sell the two-year-old car.
Plug-ins and battery-powered cars already play a major role in the nation of 5.3 million people that gets its electricity almost exclusively from hydro plants. But as Norway aims to make all new cars sold in the country battery-powered by 2025—a target it will reach only with lavish subsidies paid for by sales of oil—automakers will need to fix their service hiccups.
http://fortune.com/2018/07/24/tesla-repair-damage/
A colossal waste of money…..
Good luck Norway! Some of the worst winters and no cabin heat.
Former Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne Has Died
Fake news?
Nah, he just died.
When is Soros going to die???? Or better still Adelson????
Soros is 87, even with the best doctors in the world, for a bloke of his generation, he hasn’t got long.
And why don’t any of these old goats get dementia or some other brain f789 up? I doubt Soros maintains a strict and healthy diet with regular exercise… what’s George’s secret?????
AHHHHH HA!
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1037295.1331550901!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_750/2soros12n-1-web.jpg
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/02/08/article-2554502-1B4A44C100000578-496_634x545.jpg
There is a reason ego exist. Self preservation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-24/explosion-sex-dolls-threatens-japanese-race-extinction
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/guy%20doll.png
I am speechless….
I feel the need to google : having s—-ex with a blow up doll…….
This site has no purpose. After the dogmatic statements;
(a) “Renewables will never work”;
(b) “There is no alternative to BAU Capitalism”; and
(c) “Civilization will collapse completely.”
There is nothing more to be said. True belief in these statements should lead to dignified silence.
Humans can not live without illusions. For the men and woman of today, an irrational faith in progress may be the only antidote to nihilism. Without the hope that the future will be better than the past they could not go on.
-John N Gray
They are not dogmatic statements.
a] Some renewables will work, but only in limited and/or temporary situations. They cannot power BAU at the intensity that we currently enjoy.
b] There are alternatives to BAU Capitalism, but they would not be as sophisticated or pleasant as BAU is for those on a reasonable income who now enjoy it in the West.
c] Commenters here have debated what collapse means. There is no consensus on its definition. Most believe we will decline in stages. Collapse will not be complete – there will be stair steps down along the way.
Evidence from various sources is provided for most of these opinions by commenters, but the greens and cornucopian prefer to ignore this.
there will be stair steps down along the way
You have it wrong — just because the middle class in America is crashing into desperation … does not mean the global economy is stepping down
Economies in countries always ebb and flow —- some improve — some degrade
The global economy overall is growing. Much of this growth is coming from China. Things are booming.
Is this sustainable? It has never been sustainable.
But this unsustainable situation has been going on since we starting to burn coal (some would argue it started when we learned how to make and use fire….)
The difference now is that we are approaching the wall…. and because of exponential growth we are going to strike it at a very fast speed.
But we are not there yet – this is NOT a stair step situation … we are continuing to race higher up the stairs….
When the limits are reached…. we will be take our next step — and we will find nothing but air — and we will fall at terminal velocity …. onto the rocks below
FE is a fast collapse advocate. No questions there.
Ideally, the week before we “find nothing but air” I set out on a round the world sailing trip. Non-stop. That way I get to live 1 year longer than everyone else on the planet!
Woo hoo.
I’d do that too… but MF hates boats .. and gets dreadfully sick… that extra year would be a prelude to hell
If you believe this maybe true, there is still a debate about timings.
Much of the posts I read on here are about searching for evidence of this hypothesis in the real world.
The reason I keep on checking out this site is to try to get some ‘heads up’ about when things are going to get really difficult. What lies behind the forecasts and observations is some very scary stuff lined up for all of us.
You get a gold star!!! Well done.
But you are wrong in one respect… this site has a purpose…. it exists so The Core can discuss and dissect the process leading to the end of BAU and our extinction.
Kinda like how a oncologist would observe, document and be fascinated the spread of cancer — and how he would step in with various treatments to delay the infected organism’s death or to make the patient feel better (acting as a central banker of medicine)
For DelusisTANIS … I agree … this site is pointless… why do you stay?
My delusion is probably in the hope that things can keep going longer than expected.
However, I have been brought up in a part of the world where experience has shown that once the good times have gone… In Yorkshire that means once the coal has become unprofitable then the economy is totally f-ed.
This site speculates about when the same thing happens to the planet.
Yep – we also get to analyze the efforts to keep BAU on the rails… and play a bit of armchair quarterback….
“There is nothing more to be said. True belief in these statements should lead to dignified silence.”
goodbye, Iko… many have left OFW before you… what’s one more?
enjoy your dignified silence…
I usually enjoy my (undignified) posts here…
I especially enjoy the undignified battle of different opinions…
that could include you…
oh, well…
have a good life… but beware of Creeping Collapse…
it’s almost here (a decade or two)…
ps: existence has no purpose…
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Once your eyes have been open to reality, you cannot go back to sleep. Try it. It doesn’t work. Many of us have loved ones and children that we cannot give up on no matter how hopeless the long term outcome is. We press on, hoping that maybe we are wrong but every day confirming we are not. This is the place to know we are not alone and crazy. It is so simple a child can understand. We cannot have infinite growth on a finite world. We cannot even have a steady state sustainable life if that life uses more low entropy resources for energy than our closed system can create. We will eventually wind down. There can be no rational argument against it. You will come to this conclusion one day.
I agree Jason; the debate here is when and how fast the collapse occurs. I define collapse as the moment the grid fails and does not come back up. I think it is fairly obvious that once that point is reached things will get ugly really fast.
We can chart the path down for intellectual interest. We can study the few small and far between surviving communities. We do not stop looking at the world just because it does not give the bounty we demand.
This site has a purpose….
It is like a light in a doomie prepper’s futile-stead … powered by solar panels and batteries…
Only different…
That light attracts bugs and k illers and r apists…
FW attracts DelusiSTANIS…
And unlike the futile stead… where the bad guys crush the DP…
On FW The Core smashes the DelusiSTANIS to bits and shoves them bleeding and busted onto the bus for the Long Ride Home….