Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.
When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.
Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.
[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy.
Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.
An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.
The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.
At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.
If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:
- Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
- Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
- The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
- If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
- Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
- Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
- A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
- There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.
These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.
[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse.
Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.
Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:
Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.
Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.
Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.
Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.
Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.
Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.
The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.
[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.
Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.
Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.
Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.
The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.
Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.
The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:
- High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
- Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.
Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.
The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.
The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.
[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix.
Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.
Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.
Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.
One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.
One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.
Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.
A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.
This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.
[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.
Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.
A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:
“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”
Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.
Conclusion
The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.
The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.
As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.
Wall Street is already making predictions on the future.
See, I told you someone was thinking of how to benefit from this situation!
The following links below doesn’t express a fringe opinion–or a conspiracy theory–this is probably how many capitalists are viewing the situation.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/shahinfarshchi/2020/04/10/expect-more-jobs-and-more-automation-in-the-post-covid-19-economy/#417b0ec729b4
https://dronelife.com/2020/03/12/droneii-2019-drone-investments-break-new-records-who-were-the-major-winners/
https://builtin.com/robotics/robots-drones-help-coronavirus-covid19
The predicted winners are I.T. , automation, and online education since many workers will be “life-long learners”. Social distancing is a boon for tech. UBI is practically guaranteed at this point.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/22/silicon-valley-universal-basic-income-y-combinator
Our resident technocrat in the comments section, the one who claims collapse will be resisted by the elite and that they will use draconian measures and technology to hold the core of I.C. together is starting to look more and more reasonable. Some people are looking at tech as a way to prevent pandemics. Maybe Gail and some of the other people are wrong…maybe the ruling class DO think workers are expendable. Consumers and validation, may not be since so many of them are fond of giving speeches and being seen in a favorable light.
All is Well on Well Street!
The rich people are just to detached from reality since time immemorial. Remember Nero? Marie Antoinette? and many other leaders who lost their heads in the literal sense
We need the masses to do the work that no one sees – farming, harvesting, cleaning, trash disposal, construction and all the menial tasks that the leaders or elites do not see or appreciate (same like the bacteria in the guts). The entire office will not function well if the toilets are clogged and smelly. The rubbish that are not disposed off will cause lots of mice and infectious diseases.
You need to masses to buy iPhones, cars, work in mines, transport food and other products.
AI, IT and all other technological utopia requires a fully functional BAU to work. The electronics, the software, microchips, people requires extreme amounts of fossil fuel and supporting staff like janitors or baristas to function. It is pure fantasy or delusion that things can operate in vacuum.
Police state, immunity passports, Orwellian surveillance, etc are all added complexities which we know from past civilizations that requires a whole lot more surplus energy to implement. When we have no surplus energy, it will not work.
UBI is again another fantasy. Giving out large sums of money discourages people to work. If not one is working, then who is going to do the farming, harvesting, transporting and selling? Everyone will just sit at home and will food or manna just fall from the sky ?
I have a real headache when I read such articles. I seriously think that there is nothing in between the ears of those people or this is just optics to give people hope. I doubt it is the latter. People just make up as they go along.
UBI is being put to the test here in NZ… so far so good…. cost to date is over NZD12 billion …. 20 days into UBI and lockdown…
I am sure we can just keep doing this indefinitely …. (sarc)
‘UBI is again another fantasy. Giving out large sums of money discourages people to work. If not one is working, then who is going to do the farming, harvesting, transporting and selling? Everyone will just sit at home and will food or manna just fall from the sky ?’
Better questions are what’s possible, who’s going to pay the taxes and what happens to people’s health (both mental and physical ) who remain sedentary for long periods of time?
Partial or total automation is possible for all of the primary products you mentioned as well as many menial, labour intensive jobs. (checkout operators, rubbish collectors, tree felling, vehicle drivers), Those who loose jobs will need to retrain, and hopefully do something more aspirational with thier lives. This will require adjustment and time.
Money will not be required, people will likely be given UBI as online credit rather than rehash physical money (like old european currencies).
Business, companies, corporations (‘Producers’) benefiting from AI and autonomous argumentation pathways will have to pay the lions share of taxes to keep governments going and contribute a large % of their profit margins accrued to support jobless they have replaced in society. Those who choose not to adapt, stay home, get fat, lazy and unhealthy will naturally fall to attrition by their own volition. Prognosis is not good for sitting on ones ass long term.
This is probably a reset after all, but we’ll have some choice perhaps?
With respect, the most likely alternative to our current economy (house management ), autonomous AI systems is most likely to replace the literal slaves of the workforce and virtual slaves that fossil fuels have provided for 120 years. I can’t put it simpler.
Menial labor and old technology generates huge waste (and is unsustainable). UBI is needed to prevent total anarchy during transition to an ecologically (house knowlage) viable, AI autonomous economy IMO., but don’t mind me, i’m a sci-fi geek 🤓
If automating away those menial jobs were so easy it would already be done.
“Producers” will relocate to where expenses are lowest, if no salaries are paid then to where taxes are lowest.
I would guess white collar jobs to a much larger extent is bullshit jobs.
Just taking up a comment Gail made some time ago about globalization. Maybe the problem that comes with globalization is that the necessity of equalizing wages and wealth worldwide is not happening enough? Although wages in countries such as China, India and in low-income countries in, for example, Africa have increased, they have not increased enough that ordinary workers could afford to buy more and more of what is produced in the factories where they work. Sales of cars and new mobile phones dropped in both India and China before the pandemic. In India, there may be blame for policy errors https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49470466
If you consider the economy as a dissipative system, then there are two things that are needed: growth in energy consumption pro person and growth in total debt. That the growth rate of debt – relative to GDP – is not growing as fast as before is as worrying as the lack of energy consumption.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2019/decade-after-crisis-has-global-debt-burden-stabilized
https://www.businessinsider.com/global-debt-his-record-233-trillion-debt-to-gdp-falling-2018-1?r=US&IR=T
https://www.businessinsider.com/global-debt-growth-2017-9?r=US&IR=T
When it comes to energy the end of cheap coal in China is perhaps the biggest problem? Lack of new and cheap coal power plants also creates problems in South Africa. https://www.ft.com/content/5daef97e-eff5-11e9-ad1e-4367d8281195
I think you are right regarding all of these things. Thanks for the references.
Does the planet carry enough resources for the low-income countries to pursue the same high levels of consumption as in the wealthy countries for extended periods of time? If not, then how just and sustainable is the whole system?
My answer would be no: the planet does not carry nearly enough resources for the whole world to “develop”. We are already several billion in overshoot. Moreover, as long as the population keeps growing faster than the economy, those countries will never develop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg
This guy is wonderful and has been a high caliber research of respiratory disease at Rockefeller University
Ed, Great video and confirms this was a mismanaged health event for other purposes.
The Sheeple are being played and the Journalistic profession of the MSM is hand in hand to play this out to the public.
I listened to part of this. I think he is a little too “glib.” Coronaviruses don’t necessarily build up good immunity. Recent information says that this is an issue with this coronavirus as well. This means that the coronavirus will keep coming back, no matter what we do.
I also think the 2 weeks up and 2 weeks down is not quite right for this illness. The incubation period is too long. Some people get sick, but still seem to carry the illness for a while. Depending on the size of the area and the spefics of the disease, I expect the length of time up and down will vary. It is pretty clear from reports that China is still having a problem.
Covid-19 is a reactivation virus.
Ok, I’m going to explain what virus reactivation is.
Viruses are obligate intracellular parasites, relying to a major extent on the host cell for replication. An active replication of the viral genome results in a lytic infection characterized by the release of new progeny virus particles, often upon the lysis of the host cell.
Another mode of virus infection is the latent phase, where the virus is ‘quiescent’ (a state in which the virus is not replicating). A combination of these stages, where virus replication involves stages of both silent and productive infection without rapidly killing or even producing excessive damage to the host cells, falls under the umbrella of a persistent infection.
Reactivation is the process by which a latent virus switches to a lytic phase of replication. Reactivation may be provoked by a combination of external and/or internal cellular stimuli.
There’s no cure for a reactivation virus. They stay with you for life; think.MERSA and herpes
Sort of like chicken pox and shingles, except you get the same/similar illness back?
As eppsten barr virus
I have Epstein Barr virus. It is devastating. When it “decides” to reactivate from stress or another sickness, I am often bed ridden for a month or two. If Covid19 behaves similarly that would be more devastating than HIV by far. The virus could just wait in the wings to get you the moment your defenses are down.
Sorry to hear this, Tango. Have you explored the possibilities of high dose vitamin C and vitamin D therapy to help manage the complications of this virus?
Results:
Our data provide evidence that high dose intravenous vitamin C therapy has a positive effect on disease du-ration and reduction of viral antibody levels. Plasma levels of ascorbic acid and vitamin D were correlated with levels of antibodies to EBV. We found an inverse correlation between EBV VCA IgM and vitamin C in plasma in patients with mononucleosis and CFS meaning that patients with high levels of vitamin C tended to have lower levels of antigens in the acute state of disease. In addition, a relation was found between vitamin D levels and EBV EA IgG with lower levels of EBV early an-tigen IgG for higher levels of vitamin D.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262051703_Effect_of_high_dose_vitamin_C_on_Epstein-Barr_viral_infection
I take daily large doses of Vitamin C, Vitamin D, a multivitamin, and a few other supplements to help keep me healthy. I get a lot less colds and outbreaks since I’ve encompassed that regiment. I was taking 3 additional supplements, Elderberry, Beta Glucans, and Olive Leaf. I stopped those when Covid19 started because I’ve seen medical research and professionals saying to avoid anti-inflammatory medicines such as ibuprofen and elderberry if you actually get the virus. Apparently they can cause it to become super inflamed and that won’t end well.
Macro, thanks for the insight.
With the information we have so far is it likely we are approaching 80% herd infection and so there is no point in isolation? If it never goes away like HIV, MERSA, Herpes then we need either life long imprisonment of the whole population to defend the sick and weak elderly or isolation of the sick and elderly until they die of other causes? I am sure my Dad at age 89 has no interest in imprisonment until death.
How about society just leaves the old to make their own choices. Die at home in solitary confinement of a cause other than CV19 or risk CV19. So far there is no data to believe CV19 is 100% fatal?
“Covid-19 is a reactivation virus.”
How do you know this?
The only ones I see that credibly seem to be reporting this so far is the South Korean CDC. That should carry enough weight though to start worrying people. It also makes sense how the virus can move around and seems to be striking those who are already ill or feeble. Epstein Barr virus, which I have, behaves very similarly. If true, it would mean that Covid19 is far more devastating than previously thought.
OH SH IT!!! Now this will scare people – it’s like herpes — it will keep coming back…
What’s next – will it be like malaria?
Come on let’s think of the worst possible disease you can get that goes and comes goes and comes….
And don’t forget to mention everyone will eventually get it!
Lock me in a box!!!
I agree
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/414091/who-probes-reports-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-being-reinfected
The problem with getting caught lying … (e.g. Full Hospital Tents that are actually EMPTY) is that it establishes a very dangerous precedent….
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/central-park-coronavirus-field-hospital-near-capacity/
There there is the other lie about how Wuhan Flu can be passed without symptoms — well that’s not a lie but it’s disingenuously being used to pretend Wuhan is unique:
Symptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htm
Quarantine.
it’s…
teotwawki…
Mac10 always a bracing read:
“Fund managers are now complaining that the Fed has taken over the entire market. They haven’t, and they won’t. Because they can’t. The Fed and other central banks have been rigging markets for over a decade straight, there’s nothing to see here, move along.
“What central banks CAN DO is to push all of this capital further out on the risk curve where it eventually implodes. As I’ve said, you can play this game for fun and profit, IF you front run everyone else in and out. And don’t fall in love with any of the bullshit narratives.
“As far as the real economy none of this means anything. The only reason QE appeared to work in 2008 is because the Fed slashed interest rates over 5% to help the real economy. This time, they are out of economic ammo, so all they can do is push gamblers into risky assets while the economy implodes in real-time.
“There has never been a time when Fed alchemy has been more obviously a gimmick than right now. And yet they STILL believe in it. Imagine if the Fed bought every airline stock, would that make people start flying again? Of course not. Those stocks are worthless. Same for hotels, cruise ships, theme parks, mall stocks etc.
“If the Fed bought oil futures would that rescue the oil market? Of course not. What would happen is that every oil producer would sell to the Fed via the futures market and the Fed would end up taking delivery on an ocean of $0 oil and have NOWHERE to put it. These morons will try it, it’s only a matter of time.
“The Fed can buy all the secondary assets they want, it won’t make companies and entities solvent.”
https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2020/04/fools-gold.html?m=1
Solvency is malleable. Not a single business or government ( with exceptions) would be considered solvent by 1970 standards. Solvency is and always has been arbitrary. The difference is that in times past those in financial institution really understood the value of good financial standards. Then the gamers came. Those who believed in standards couldn’t compete with cheaters.
The fed certainly can and is buying financial assets. Once those enter fed books their price is written in stone. This means that those that own those assets outside of the fed can use them as collateral to access $ via repo provided by the fed because the collteral has not fallen in value. They can meet payroll. The resource continues to be extracted. All collateral requirements suspended as of three weeks ago for banks. The can not go bankrupt. Their is no law that creates bankruptcy in banks now.
Interest rates rising mean the end of the financial system and government deficit spending. Assets falling in value the same. The only answer is dollar destruction and monetizing debt. The fed HAS TO and WILL. The fed is buying everything to prevent sell off buy locking the official value on their books. Mark to market ended in 2008 and never reinstated. Fed never had to comply with that anyway. The fed will create as many digital 1s and 0s as needed to stop collateral value from falling and to stop interest rise. If you own every peanut in the world you can define price if you dont need buyers. This is obvious and radical emergency currency devaluation. And in the real world? Radical unthinkable deflationary pressures. Las beam meets shield.
Some countries are planning to open up their economy but I am not sure how it will work. We have examples of Singapore and China.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/coronavirus-some-european-countries-set-to-lift-lockdown-measures.html
Let us take Austria for an example. Tourism accounts for 8.8% of 2016 GDP. I don’t have the latest ones. I am not sure if tourism includes restaurants that serves mainly tourists, the shops, souvenirs or services that serve tourists. Let us assume that 12% of the GDP is involved directly and indirectly with tourism.
From the government website, I obtained the most important industrial sectors in Austria are:
• Food and Drink industry
• Mechanical and Steel Engineering
• Chemical and Automotive industry
• Electrics and Electronics industry and
• Wood, Pulp and Paper industry.
I would assume that only a small portion of the above is meant for local consumption. The rest are exported.
Manufacturing accounts for around 25% of GDP of Austria
Services accounts for 70% of GDP of Austria. Banking, Insurance, tourism, etc.
Now, when Austria opens up,
1. The rest of the world is mostly under lockdown
2. Land borders are still closed. Even if it is opened, will people cross borders unnecessarily?
3. Air freight is available but I am not sure how many planes are flying in/out
4. International passenger flights are not available.
5. Are the citizens of Austria willing to spend a lot of their money or will they be prudent?
Bottom line, when China came out from lockdown, there is a devastating demand shock from their customers and it is as though they never exited lockdown. Demand shock from local and international customers
2 weeks ago Singapore has difficulty working as other countries are lock downed. Airlines are not flying, people are not coming in. It is not easy to work if your counterparts are working from home.
Coming back to Austria. Tourism is 100% dead. Manufacturing for export is dead (no easy way to move your stuff out anyway), People are not willing to spend a lot of money. The flower shop may be opened but the people may not be in the mood to buy a lot of flowers (business down 50%?) Getting the supply of flowers may also be a problem. Same goes for the coffee shops. Their supply of coffee may be jeopardized if they do not stock up.
Cinemas ? No new movies. Operas? Not much disposable income to spend and social distancing? Summer music festival cancelled? Sporting events cancelled? To me, lockdown and exiting lockdown are similar. People may be conditioned by lockdown that they still stay at home.
Assuming the most probable scenario that reinfection happens. Will it go up to a level that the government felt uncomfortable that they want to shut down again? France may want to exit the lockdown 3 weeks later and Austria goes into lockdown again? Having one country exiting and another entering lockdown does not work in our industrialized civilization.
I don’t know how this will go forward. I have no clue at all.
Sorry for the formatting error. Not sure why it was that way even it was formatted properly
Again we are back to Korowicz’s insight: that ‘for it to function anywhere, it has to function everywhere’ – to full capacity, more or less.
Take restaurants: with very slim margins they have to be really busy and at capacity to make a profit at all, really even to function. They need all their staff present, totally reliable supplies, and all those customers streaming in.
For a restaurant, no such thing as opening after a lock-down up at 40% capacity, and moving up to 70 then 100% over a few months, or even weeks.
The politicians and idiot epidemiologists pushed nearly everything over Ugo Bardi’s ‘Seneca Cliff’.
There is no such thing economically as an ‘inessential’ business, they are ALL essential to the functioning of the whole as it has grown and developed – if they weren’t they would not exist. What is, is, because it had to be.
Guess what lies at the bottom of the cliff ? Mangled bodies, an awful lot of them.
Shall we pray for Resurrection?
Something will rise from the ashes. It will not be a copy of what was before. I expect it will just be a step on the path to “a world made by hand”.
It is definitely difficult to see a way out.
If NZ loosens up a bit I hope the barber opens…. my hair is running out of control … I find the best way to manage it so it does not block my vision is to take a big glob of hair clay (the stiff stuff)… massage it in .. then force the hair upwards…
Tom Cruise should do it — he’ll get some added height without the inserts….
https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/closeup-portrait-charismatic-adult-man-260nw-574250689.jpg
Sorry… another thought (I am free )- lock down in Malaysia is extended until end of month. 6 weeks in total. At least there are some hints that if new infection is less than 50 per day, then the lockdown may be released (unconfirmed).
How do we do social distancing on flying sardines can (airplanes)? Are the planes going to fly half full? How about airports? Trains? subways?
People may not want to fly unnecessarily anymore. Companies may not want to send employees for meetings. Will the company get sued if the employee was infected? There will be no meetings or conventions. Everything online.
Insurance companies of course do not want any liability. They will exclude coronavirus from all policies, except perhaps health insurance.
Expect it to be extended…. or if it is pulled… to be reinstated.. reinstating is powerful stuff… it really amps up the fear and dismay factors
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Unskilled labor is in surplus. Seven billion people is plenty. Low wages increase job prospects for the unskilled. Deflation increases the value of money and savings. Coronavirus did not kill many, but prudence has been rewarded. Profligates may suffer enough to learn personal responsibility. The world is a better place. Remote education is improving the efficiency of the education cartel. Small business failures leave opportunities for new entrepreneurs. Creative destruction is good for economic health.
A lot of mothers will become full time teachers of their children. This will reduce the size of the labor pool significantly, but will not give enough income to pay rent and mortgages. Whether this is a better place depends on a person’s point of view. I expect a lot of adversely affected people would say, “No.”
I want to introduce a concept to you all. It is used all the time but I think it is not properly documented. I called this the EXPIRATION DATE PARADOX
EXPIRATION DATE PARADOX – the item will go bad instantly on the said date. Say there is a loaf of bread that is set to expire on 12th April. On 11th April 11:59pm, it is OK but on 12th April, 00:01am (2 mins later), the loaf of bread is bad and cannot sell and has to be thrown away. The bread never ever spoils before 12th April 00:01am no matter how bad the storage condition is. he bread cannot be eaten at all just 2 mins past midnight.
Application : used a lot by economist. When the lockdown is removed, everything will spring back with a V-shaped recovery. People will not use masks anymore and there is no social distancing. Everything is fine and dandy. It is as if nothing happened. No virus.. move along.
Jokes aside, the mainstream media (MSM) is not helping with the recovery. With so much screaming, gnashing of teeth and hysteria surrounding how bad it is and how many deaths are predicted, it makes it rather impossible to release the lockdown. Release can only be done if the number of cases is low or stabilized. It might be a better way to just black out the situation like what China did, fake all the numbers and proclaim that it is all ok now and you can come out from your homes. I just do not have any idea how the governments around the world can release the lockdown without making a fool out of themselves. For example in US – Fauci is stating how bad the situation is (and then revising down the numbers) and what needs to be done in a strict manner. How on earth is he going to release US back?
Economic consequences –
When you portray the dire situation but still go ahead release the lockdown, there will be always a percentage of people who are scared (those who have dead relatives or perhaps a phobia on this virus) and they will not go out and spend. Their habits are changed. Assuming that there is no reinfection (it is a dream though), the level of economic activity will be a step lower than before the virus strikes. For those who subscribe to the step down collapse, there was a step down post 2008 and post 2000 crash. Remember that stock market is not representative of the economy. You need to look at employment market, purchasing power, human participation of economic activities. The 2020 step down, unfortunately is a very big step and it is likely to be the last step of the ladder.
For the expiration date paradox, I am not sure how countries like UK, USA and Europe in general is going to release from the economic straitjacket. Just before the day of release, everything is bad and a day after release, everything is OK. It looks like the government has painted themselves in the corner.
A quick question here to everyone whom I hope, have some comments on social distancing.
Social distancing is never part of human culture. Restaurants and subways are packed. Great food in great restaurants are always full.
Now, during lockdown or social distancing restrictions, dine in is off limits for many places. Only delivery or take away.
Assuming that when the lockdown is removed, will social distancing be removed?
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iK5NSanqpYJc/v0/1000x-1.jpg
Supermarkets, malls, shopping centers, groceries are now limiting the number of customers in the premises. It is suppose to be a “temporary” control. Question – how do you define “temporary” ? Does any government in the world has any idea how to release this?
No commercial entity, restaurant, malls, etc can survive if half the table are going to be empty. if there is going to be limited number of people at one time in the shopping mall, that defeats the purpose of going there.
Anyone can offer any suggestions or the politicians and health officials are just flying blind and doing up whatever they want to do. Government is saying that you cannot do this or do that and when the lockdown is removed, you can do all of that . Am I missing something?
Distancing will be removed. Capitalist like to maximize money per sq foot. Humans like to be close enough to hear their dinner companion and to touch their companion.
I don’t think social distancing will end until the is either herd immunity or a widely disseminated vaccine. So it will be with us for quite a while I guess. I don’t know how that will “work”.
“[W]hat people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
As if 2020 wasn’t bad enough already…
Krakatoa volcano erupts in Indonesia
World-famous Krakatoa volcano Anak Krakatau has erupted in Indonesia, emitting an enormous plume of ash, smoke and lava into the sky.
The volcanic island is currently reporting episodes of “large magmatic eruption”, meaning that the volcano is continuing to produce magma and lava, as well as sending ash into the air in a cloud as high as 15km.
Yep, Wuhan-bug narratives completely sidelined that incoming mini IceAge in this decade and potential volcanic ash forced global dimming on top of that..
Bible Matteo 24
If 2020 was a slide…
http://www.shutupandtakemymoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/if-2020-was-a-slide-meme.jpg
Add some spikes at the bottom? Or a raging fire? Or a pit of vipers? Or a croc with his mouth open?
Matthew 24 is Signs of the End Times:
6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are the beginning of birth pains. . .
15 “So when you see standing in the holy place ‘the abomination that causes desolation,’[a – Reference to Daniel 9:27; 11:31; 12:11] spoken of through the prophet Daniel—let the reader understand— 16 then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. 17 Let no one on the housetop go down to take anything out of the house. 18 Let no one in the field go back to get their cloak. 19 How dreadful it will be in those days for pregnant women and nursing mothers! 20 Pray that your flight will not take place in winter or on the Sabbath. 21 For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now—and never to be equaled again. . .
30 “Then will appear the sign of the Son of Man in heaven. And then all the peoples of the earth[c] will mourn when they see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven, with power and great glory.[d] 31 And he will send his angels with a loud trumpet call, and they will gather his elect from the four winds, from one end of the heavens to the other.
Surely, this one could be added to the list. “African Locust Outbreak Returns; Second Wave Approximately 20 Times Larger”
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/african-locust-outbreak-returns-second-wave-approximately-20-times-larger
Does he mention CDT?
‘Then will appear the sign of the Son of Man in heaven’
And Fast Eddy came down upon the earth (from the Control Room), handed free masks to all, and thine kingdom was healed oh Lord.
And the Lord then heaped tonnes of gold coins on Fast Eddy, hot concubines, and crisp shoestring french fries.
there’ll be trouble when Mrs Fast finds out about the concubines
So perhaps we get global cooling?
I don’t think one volcanic eruption is enough for that. However, reducing the number of plane flights might.
I’m counting on it … I’ve staked out the area for my ice rink. Waiting for the -20 temps now…..
I can’t wait!
https://digital.hammacher.com/Items/81814/81814_1000x1000.jpg
Are you getting more scared?
Tokyo Olympics CEO Suggests 2021 Games Might Not Happen Either
Headline ZH – When will BlackRock (which is buying these ETFs in any event), create an ETF of ETFs bought by the Fed?
Nice.
Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus
«Humankind is now facing a global crisis. Perhaps the biggest crisis of our generation. The decisions people and governments take in the next few weeks will probably shape the world for years to come. They will shape not just our healthcare systems but also our economy, politics and culture. We must act quickly and decisively. We should also take into account the long-term consequences of our actions. When choosing between alternatives, we should ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but also what kind of world we will inhabit once the storm passes. Yes, the storm will pass, humankind will survive, most of us will still be alive — but we will inhabit a different world…….In this time of crisis, we face two particularly important choices. The first is between totalitarian surveillance and citizen empowerment. The second is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity.»
https://amp.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75#
Global solidarity?
Pray tell Mr globalist….solidarity over what? Your precious cli…m te ch. g?
Perhaps there are other choices you forgot. national protection of economies from globalism…
The Financial Times people are out of touch with what is happening.
I choose nationalist isolation. Because that at least opens an opportunity for citizen empowerment, while globalism ensures totalitarian surveillance. I have lived and worked on four continents, and enjoyed the hospitality of many nations. But along the way, I have found globalism to be the common enemy of us all.
The good thing is that Trump has rolled back the spying powers of the NSA.
And he drained the swamp just like Obama promised to do…. but then forgot to do
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3Fx-eObKYe0/XGGaAHAtZeI/AAAAAAAAkqU/V0JUaB2Du80ATWYx7hCIkjbiFzCooJ0XwCLcBGAs/s1600/Emperor%2BTrump.jpg
Because politicians don’t lie and they don’t break promises… they just forget
If you read his book Homo Deus he basically says we are already so advanced that we could predict and nip in the bud any pandemic. Looks like his predictive skills were close to useless. Most of his other views of the future are too.
The old monthly G7 central banks QE was $270B
In March 2020 it was $1.4T
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVThmjbX0AENDCM?format=png&name=large
Wow!
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/10/chicago-phlebotomist-coronavirus-antibodies-found-in-30-50-tested-for-covid-19/
“A phlebotomist working at a Chicago hospital said Thursday that 30 to 50 percent of those tested for coronavirus have antibodies, and 10 to 20 percent of those tested are actual carriers of the virus.
Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician for Rosewood Community Hospital, has had extensive experience with coronavirus testing over the last few weeks, as she has been testing around 400 to 600 people per day in the hospital’s parking lot. Owaynat also stated that there is a far greater number of those that have come through her line and have already recovered from the virus compared to those who currently have the disease.”
most infected persons recover quickly…
the lockdowns should be ended… though it is too late…
“Italy PM extends virus lockdown, says euro zone rescue plan inadequate”
The lockdown is about something else than the Coronavirus.
The world will be a different place after the lockdown. World oil production will be cut by 15 mmbpd. The world GDP will be cut by 20% or more.
During the lockdown nations are fighting over what pieces of the pie they will receive.
Governments and central banks are quietly bailing out banks and industries for the coming future.
And why you think euro broken in April?
Italy should hire this guy as a consultant … clearly their strategy is … flawed
Fighting from your knees is a losing proposition
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gdGT1q96FdM/W4VgTnP2irI/AAAAAAACLz0/0ijFN-zkJnMaCphvSHb-lqUJjw35pavRgCLcBGAs/s1600/_DSC2366.JPG
The Chinese and the DNC need this to destroy the president. Will go on until Nov 3rd.
What an extremely astute observation. They do indeed. As to the lying fake news media and George Soros. Impeach! Impeach! Impeach!
We definitely need better numbers on where we are with the virus.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/10/latest-models-suggesting-coronavirus-resurgence-upon-reopening-of-america-quickly-collapse/
“… the New York Times published a leaked document on Friday afternoon that suggested, should the mitigation measures relax, the outbreak would be worse than before.
According to the Times, the document–an internal Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) model–shows that lifting mitigation measures “after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing.”
“… the New York Times published a leaked document on Friday afternoon that suggested, should the mitigation measures relax, the outbreak would be worse than before.
My Gosh….that means that rather than 1/3rd full hospitals, we will have 1/2 full hospitals.
We can’t have that can we?
LOL!
last week, we had a world wide conspiracy to hide the fact that we never landed on the moon
it involved literally all governments and all branches of sciences to do this
‘why’ was never satisfactorily established
this week cross out moonlandings, and pencil in coronavirus and we could carry on as before–a huge conspiracy involving all governments and all branches of science for some purpose as yet to be decided–or multi purposes individually decided
Excuse me while I go look for something harder than my head to bang it on
Gail – my apologies but Norm seems to have overlooked this:
If the Mo–on landings were fa—ked, then one question that naturally arises is: why would any government go to such extreme lengths to mount such an elaborate ho—ax?
http://centerforaninformedamerica.com/moondoggie-3/
As for the Wuhan ho-ax I have explained how you get world leaders on board:
You give Jacinda the following choices :
Collapse is imminent. Choose a or b:
a) uncontrolled collapse – riots – cannibalism – violence – total chaos
or
b) controlled collapse (or demolition) — release a flu — create fear – lock the world down — starve them to death
Jacinda ‘as much as this pains me I choose b’
http://cdn3.spiegel.de/images/image-1406572-860_poster_16x9-dinl-1406572.jpg
I doubt that world leaders really realize that collapse is immanent. They probably realize smaller problems closer to home, such as that many of the businesses selling goods to the customers are not doing well. Malls in particular aren’t doing well. They also know about riots, and want to keep them under control.
They look at smaller questions, and the shut-ins seem to help the smaller issues.
They may not but the Edlers would have laid it out to them in a powerpoint presentation:
Slide One
https://autosphere.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/CAJ-12-2019_PAGE16_CRD_Scotiabank.png
Slide Two
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/max_650x650/public/2019-12/bfm7BFC.jpg
Followed by a series of slides showing trillions of stimulus and low interest rates being fired at the above…. but having no effect…
The final slide would be this:
http://www.infiniteunknown.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/pushing-on-a-string.jpg
Then a series of slides like this:
https://ia.tmgrup.com.tr/dd9703/806/378/0/40/1000/508?u=http://i.tmgrup.com.tr/anews/v1/2019/06/16/2-million-strong-protest-draws-apology-from-hong-kong-leader-over-extradition-bill-1560706022046.jpg
https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/6754748461.jpg
Then everyone would be given a nice fat glass of fine Whisky… to wash down the Xanax and asked to take their seats…
Ok Gentlemen – and Grade 3 Teachers (Justin and Jacinda look up from marking math homework)…
We have two choices
a) stay with the status quo — watch as the situation deteriorates and descends into total chaos (Fast Eddy takes the lectern and to discuss how extreme violence is imminent – and how cannibalism and radiation sickness will follow)
b) CDT – we drop a flu — claim it’s a Plague — use the MSM to create fear and panic — lockdown cities — force people into their homes — keep the global economy supported for as long as possible — while ratcheting up the fear and lockdowns…. make promises that there will be food available
Then we’ll just stop delivering the food because there won’t be any — but the MSM will stay on message ‘food shipments arriving in the city — see the trucks…’ (kinda like the empty tent hospitals — trucks but no food in them)….. they will weaken as they go hungry … but they will remain inside (we will brand anyone breaking quarantine a traitor and shoot them dead — that’s the latest plan…) — nobody will riot — nobody will eat anybody — and they’ll all be long dead before the radiation arrives.
Now it is time to v…. B! I vote for B! BBBBBB!!! B! BBBBBBBBBBB! BBBB!
As I was saying it’s now time to vote…. BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB.
Let the record show we have a unanimous decision. Option B passes.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FrdZIsBJZJg/UBaSJ6ixp-I/AAAAAAAAB9Y/XXLfxGvQTPk/s1600/are-you-not-entertained.gif
All Hail Fast Eddy. King of Kings. God of Gods. Master of… the UNIVERSE (and likely the Creator of the Universe)
Norman, part of the beauty of conspiracy theories is that they never die; they mutate into new forms, like viruses. The Knights Templar, for instance, were not put out of business; they sent their holy relics to America and reinvented themselves as a healing order inPortugal, and later still became freemasons. (Yes, I actually watched a television program that made these claims)
So here’s my new theory: the corona virus came from the moon, and was brought to Earth in moon rocks. Almost everyone kept their moon rocks in a sterile environment, but the Chinese were curious … Perhaps the virus was created deliberately by those underground Selenites, before Mr Cavor’s flu killed them off.
well whatever you do, don’t tell Eddy, or he’ll go into retreat again, back to that remote Tibetan monastery where the monks trained him to be a Kung Phooey commenter on the internet.
when he returns, nobody will be safe from the flying kicks of deep state conspiracies
People claiming the 2018 Douma attack in Syria was staged are called conspiracy theorists too. Yet the 20 OPCW inspectors that investigated the incident could find no evidence of a chemical attack. Multiple whistleblowers from that group have come forward but the media will not report on it and the OPCW will not allow them to provide their evidence. They have admitted to being fearful for their lives.
Your country and mine fund the group that produced the video. My riding elected a new MP last fall. I met with him and provided the testimony of the whistleblowers. He did not know anything about it. He assured me he would get back to me and I told him thanks but you are going to be told to keep your mouth shut or be licked out of the party and see the end of your political career.
As expected, never heard from him again.
The people that control our governments use the term “conspiracy” as a means of shutting down inquiry and most citizens take the bait, hook, line, and sinker.
100000% Seymour Hersh broke that story but did anyone see him on the MSM discussing it?
How in the FKKKK can you ignore a two-time Pulitzer winner when he breaks what is clearly a massive story like this???
It’s a bit difficult to call someone with this cred a ‘conspiracy theorist’…. that would only draw attention to the story….
So nobody touches it
Do you not sense that Fast Eddy is new and improved?
More powerful than ever? More right than ever? At LEAST a couple hundred IQ points higher?
If he gets any greater he will surely explode….
https://images.gr-assets.com/hostedimages/1447297230ra/16983389.gif
Fast watched this documentary on a flight recently about Andre the Giant – the guy apparently had some disease that made him keep on growing … it eventually killed him…
And it occurred to Fast that he has something similar … his IQ just keeps growing — his brain and head are the same size — he has M Fast measure regularly and asks ‘Is it Bigger? Does it Look Bigger? — and she always no – it’s the same size — if it were bigger you’d have to loosen your ball caps….
can’t help but be reminded of that comic strip character who used to burst out of his shirt and trousers every time he got annoyed
the thought always occurred to me:, where does he find a new shirt an trousers when he calms down?
Right now with all the clothing stores shut down Mrs Fast must be at her wits end trying to keep up with all the mending she has to do—(sorry darling, I lost it again with the Pagett nutcase in OFW again)
Mrs Fast, long suffering and forbearing as she undoubtedly is, just tut tuts again and reaches for her sewing basket. Content in the knowledge that one day, there will be a final explosion and she will collect on the insurance
—unless of course you started hoarding clothes in advance of all this, knowing the effect it would have on your wardrobe
Come on Bob — surely you can do better than that…. that’s just plain … feeble…
https://www.jeannekolenda.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Feeble.jpg
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/10/photos-nyc-increases-burials-in-public-cemetery-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/
photo gallery…
I don’t ever remember seeing this happening with the flu…
To try to put these deaths into some kind of perspective, the US has recorded about 18,600 deaths attributed to coronavirus so far this year, of which 7,000 were in New York State.
In 2017, a total of 2,813,503 resident deaths were registered in the United States—69,255 more deaths than in 2016. And in 2018, the most recent year for which the CDC has reported, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017.
Also in 2018, the US recorded about 59,000 deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza, an average of almost 5,000 per month, with more in the winter months .
In New York State, total deaths recorded in 2017 were 155,191, an average of almost 13,000 per month, with more in the winter months. Among these deaths were 4,178 due to pneumonia, 257 due to influenza, and 7,220 due to chronic lower respiratory disease.
Tim, so no stretch for NY to deal with. Considering some of 7000 were actually the standard pneumonia, influenza, respiratory disease. Not to mention those run over by bus while looking across the street at someone who had CV19 and whence counted as a CV19 death. Cuomo may well be your next president watch out.
Whaddaya know ?
Finance has its own supply chain as well. The letters of credit that I talked about all this while. It will be very important in the immediate future.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/singapore-oil-trading-giant-verge-collapse-after-banks-freeze-credit-lines
Singapore Oil Trading Giant On Verge Of Collapse After Banks Freeze Credit Lines
……..Singapore’s iconic oil trader Hin Leong Trading, which according to Bloomberg has appointed advisers to help in talks with banks as some of them freeze credit lines to the firm.
Yesterday, Bloomberg first reported that at least two lenders won’t issue new letters of credit to Hin Leong amid concerns over its ability to repay debt; as a result, the firm appointed advisers this week to help negotiate with banks for more time to resolve its finances. Letters of credit are a critical financial backstop for commodity traders, used as way of financing critical short-term trade. A bank issues the so-called L/C on behalf of the buyer as a guarantee of payment to the seller. Once the goods have exchanged hands, the buyer repays the lender.
I know lack of letters of credit for some members of the supply chain was part of the problem back in 2008.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-would-have-been-far-more-deadly-than-spanish-flu-if-it-appeared-in-1918/
“Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb on Friday warned that the coronavirus would have been more deadly than the Spanish flu if it had appeared in 1918.
“I think [that] given the profile of this virus, it’s likely it would have been far more deadly than the Spanish flu”…
yes, with the profile of this virus, it is much worse than flu…
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/10/trump-says-hes-not-going-to-reopen-economy-until-we-know-this-country-is-going-to-be-healthy.html
Trump wanted to “reopen” tomorrow…
but he has caved in to those who don’t want to see too many Grandma’s and Grandpa’s deaths…
even reopening tomorrow would have been too late…
the damage is done… there is a lot less business in bAU, and it will never fully recover… a partial recovery is the most reasonable scenario…
I just went through this video for 20mins and would like to share with you all one konspirasi theory that was not discussed here but it is quite popular everywhere on the internet. This video looked at both sides.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB00mLArYBQ
World government, one world currency and new world order. Again, there is no right or wrong because right or wrong really depends on how you think about it. The headhunters of the olden days don’t think cutting people’s head is wrong. If you don’t cut them, they will cut yours. Europeans were the ones who told them that that was wrong. Different worldviews.
Here are my points of contention:
1. It is only a few people like Kissinger, Gordon Brown had the idea that a world government will be good for all. Perhaps they watched too may sci-fi movies where aliens come to a planet and met with the leader of the planet. We don’t have this. If aliens come to earth and landed at USA, then the leader is US president. If it landed at USSR, then it will be the leader of USSR. That was what the movies do long time ago. There is no world leader on earth
2. So, if there is a world government, who is going to lead? USA? Russia? China? UK? Germany?
3. EU is already not functioning well and the likelihood of breakup is like 99% because ones-size cannot fit all. If it does not work in EU, can it even work for the whole world?
4. We are too diverse in culture, religion, ideology and political background to come under one government. What makes you think that countries like Malaysia, Russia, China or even South Africa or even India will agree to giving up their sovereignty and currency to one world government?
5. Do we have sufficient energy (physical and also from fossil fuel) to accomplish that. The bureaucracy for a one-world government and currency will be tremendous
6. What happens to the debts especially when you have a one-world currency ? It is so interconnected (A lends to B and then to C, etc) that removing one will collapse the whole structure.
7. Microchippiing everyone ? Unlikely that China or Russia or even Malaysia will do that under one-world government. They may do it on their own citizens but not in a corrdinated manner. Do we even have the resources to do that?
8 Immunity passport (as stated in the video) – Do we have the resources to do that?
Some leader are probably very delusional, thinking along the lines of Genghis Khan uniting the entire Eurasia through conquest. We are so far into the overshoot that I am not sure why people still entertain to those ideas when politically, socially, culturally and economically impossible. Even going cashless is not easy because there will be countries in the world where they will disagree. India going cashless when 30% (maybe) of the population do not even have a bank account (too poor)? If there are exceptions to this cashless, then cash from other countries will just flow over. If you stop this flow, then trade will be dead. So, there is just no way that the utopian concepts can be implemented.
So many people an countries are taking advantage of COVID-19 to implement their dreams and grab as much power as possible. It will not be long before the overwhelming economic “down force” wakes both the leaders and the population to the realities of the real world.
THE SCIENCE OF TESTING
What about the effectiveness of covid-19 detection?
I know nothing about this technical issue, so i hope someone more knowleadgable than me can give his/her opinion.
“What is the test they claim to use to identify this new bug in a patient? The test is called PCR. This is the classic polymerase chain reaction test, invented in the 80s by Dr Kary Mullis. In 40 years doctors have never come up with any test more accurate than this very flawed, theoretical estimate of microbial activity. The test produces loads of false positives, often failing to measure anything at all.
No one is more critical of the test’s reliability than the inventor himself.
Dr Kary Mullis, who won the Nobel prize for inventing PCR to detect HIV, [9] explains its limitations—why the PCR is not especially diagnostic, for HIV or for anything else:
“Quantitative PCR is an oxymoron. PCR is intended to identify substances qualitatively, but by its very nature is unsuited for estimating numbers. Although there is a common misimpression that the viral-load tests actually count the number of viruses in the blood, these tests cannot detect free, infectious viruses at all; they can only detect proteins that are believed, in some cases wrongly, to be unique to HIV..
“The tests can detect genetic sequences of viruses, but not viruses themselves.” [1]
Can’t identify viruses? Then how do we know all these people have the same disease, let alone the same novel disease? This means that with all these people who have supposedly been PCR tested for COVID, there is still no conclusive diagnostic evidence that they have any coronaviruses at all. Let alone the same virus. According to the inventor of the primary diagnostic test.
https://thedoctorwithin.com/blog/2020/03/10/newsletter-march-2020/
source to the quotation of Dr. Kary Mullis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4172096/
Nobel laureate, heretic and surfer dude Kary Mullis is one of my personal scientific heroes. Interestingly, he died of pneumonia at the age of 74, just last August. Had he survived into this year, his death would have probably been marked down to COVID
https://cdn.quotesgram.com/img/74/60/1230958616-quote-where-is-the-research-that-says-hiv-is-the-cause-of-aids-there-are-10-000-people-in-the-world-now-kary-mullis-254931.jpg
JHK today:
“I certainly don’t know the answer to all this, though readers are twanging on me to declare the whole Covid-19 story “a ho ax,” which I’m not ready to do. I do know this: America has become utterly intolerant of uncertainty. And in the absence of certainty, that age-old human cognitive skill called pattern recognition, which has made us such a successful species, kicks into high gear scanning the field-of-view for answers. Any string-of-dots that affords even the slimmest plausibility goes on the table for review, including a lot of stories tagged as “con spir acy theo ries.”…”
so he thinks that many persons are not comfortable with uncertainty…
I agree with him that at this point in time there is some uncertainty surrounding the rise and spread and consequences of the coronavirus…
but I see no uncertainty in this: the lockdowns were totally stooooopid (in retrospect)… possibly or more likely probably the biggest blunder by world leaders in the history of IC…
Quite: instant demand destruction, supply-chain fragmentation and failure (now accelerating in mnay sectors, judging by news stories ) and true mass unemployment rivalling the 1930’s, which is likely to be very persistent.
Bravo! They led boldly, and we followed – into the Abyss.
Xabier, agree, except, we did not follow we had no method to push back they have the guns, the thugs to use the guns and the money including a printing press to make so much money it destroys the meaning on money.
Abyss, yes.
“HOW CAN IT BE POSSIBLE TO KEEP A SECRET WHEN SO MANY PEOPLE ARE INVOLVED’
Easy:
I was told by one of the partners at a telecom company with properties across Asia (I played on their hockey team) around the time mobile phones came out ‘never implicate yourself on a phone call e.g. never say something like cocaine’ because we MUST put monitoring software on all our gear – all telecoms MUST. And the authorities have the key….
Anyway –years later …. it must have been no more than 6 months before Snowden came out — I was telling this story to a mate — and he was pretty much on the verge of laughter — ‘why would they do that – they’d never do that — can you imagine how difficult it would be to do that —- and if they were doing that then how come nobody is saying anything – you can’t keep a secret like that’
And then Snowden emerged from his NSA lair…..
The point here is that I was told this by a person who is not some drunk dude in a bar — this guy is a serious telecoms player and he is an engineer with an MBA — he’s got a bit of credibility – and he has no reason to bullshit me.
Yet when I discussed this with my mate clearly his thinking was ‘wacko conspiracy theory’ – he completely dismissed it. I could have put a sworn statement in front of him with the guys credentials and he would have dismissed that too….
I reckon it’s pretty easy to keep a secret — you can look at the Manning tape of the US soldiers wasting civilians…. How many thousands of times has that happened? Yet there is only one Manning (and very unlikely to be another)
The reasons soldiers say nothing are likely:
1. We are fighting for America against bad guys — we are patriots —sorry about that dudes but shit happens.
2. You can potential foook up your career prospects (i.e. you keep getting rewarded if you shut the foook up — if you don’t learn — you get no more treats)
3. And now you see that if you do that you go to the dungeon (wonder if Julian regrets publishing that…)
4. And finally if you piss off the man he will ruin you – if you have not seen this film it’s a must https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_the_Messenger_(2014_film) Anyone watching that is sure to think twice about pursuing shit that someone with a lot of power does not want exposed (he really screwed up – it was his shot at fame — so he ignored multiple warnings to let it go…)
The monkeys have been trained very well … very well indeed. And they really are like monkeys.
Or maybe grade 2 kids?
You explain the rules. Then if they follow them you REWARD them. If they break the rules you PUNISH them.
See – it’s actually quite simple
(contributions from Albert Bandura on this topic…)
There is currently not a single jetliner in the air over NZ right now (a few small prop planes active)
I can see a DHL plan halfway to Sydney….
Happy Easter everyone!
https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6015/2458843f
He is dead!
He is dead indeed!
(Well it’s only Saturday.)
Most people cannot work from home
https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/work-from-home-jokes-quarantine-coronavirus-9-5e74be497c3f6__700.jpg
Thanks for giving us a concrete example that cements your opinion and provides an overview of aggregate situation.
Perfect wordings…
The people who formulated the lockdown response are from the upper classes. From their perspective the country is awash in wealth. They , personally, could go months or even years without having to work or leave their homes and assume that is the norm. They are puzzled as to why most people do not have advanced degrees or refuse to buy electric cars.
Will coronavirus signal the end of capitalism?
The peasants’ revolt after the 14th-century plague saw off feudalism. After COVID-19, will it be the turn of capitalism?
https://www.total-croatia-news.com/templates/shaper_newskit/images/blank.png
this is so far outside my personal awareness-space, that i need a few USA doomsters to confirm it’s real, before I make any further comment on it.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/10/unforgettable-footage-endless-line-cars-food-banks-stark-illustration-coronavirus?cd-origin=rss&utm_term=AO&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter&utm_content=email&utm_source=Daily%20Newsletter&utm_medium=Email
I can believe it is true, if 30% of renters didn’t pay their rent due April 5 by the due date. There are an awfully lot of people who are without reserve funds for anything, if they are laid off. And many of those people are in jobs that are subject to layoffs.
Help in the way of food stamps or extra money for food/rent comes very slowly, making the problem worse.
“Images and video of miles of cars lined up at food banks in San Antonio and other cities across the U.S. present a striking example of the economic effects of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, which has thrown at least 16 million Americans out of work in recent weeks and increased pressure on the distribution centers to provide key staples for a flood of needy people in the country.”
not only is it real, but as far as reports I’ve seen, it’s in many cities…
and then, after sitting in their cars in line for hours, many in the back of the line find that the food has run out for that day…
America, land of the free food, and home of the not-brave-enough to resist lockdowns and carry on bAU even with the virus circulating…
They can afford gas and cars but not food. Very suspicious.
Without gas and cars, they can’t even get to the food. This is especially so in places like Texas where suburbanization is King.
I knew a somewhat poor American who would buy the things he needed but not food…
he said food was free…
especially in urban areas, there are many food banks, soup kitchens…
find the food handouts, and save your money for other things…
“They can afford fishing line and a hook but not fish. Very suspicious.”
As many people have noted, just like rent or mortgage payments, car and smartphone ownership and use, health insurance premiums, credit card debt, and education loan repayment commitments are all significant drains on the budgets of poor people who are “plugged into the system”. With hindsight, a lot of these people would have been better off if they had avoided getting burdened with some of those “necessities” and instead lived a bit more frugally like the Waltons—not Sam but Johnboy. But it’s toooo late now.
https://youtu.be/x5LQ5k-bjbE
Food bank where I live had about a dozen people outside a few days ago. Not in cars. Thats about normal. I wonder what the missions are doing? Cant really have people sleeping in dorms or eating in community now. Where I live most people are not wearing masks for shopping. I have been and i get wierd looks.
Well, “Commondreams” the jolly corralled place where Sanders still promises daily new bills, but in reality only promotes his Malarkey Sniffing friend Joe, or in actuality votes for the banker bailouts as good establishment pupil no conditions for betterment of poor ever attached. Not mentioning on that site the cheap shots on supposedly Trump’s America reality to blame, when the Great predecessor of Kenya prepared a lot of dry wood for this crisis on all fronts to begin with..
At the hospital my son works at they will be able to test for CV19 starting tomorrow at 8am. Located 130 north of NYC.
I got a test yesterday.
No results for 5 days.
I don’t live in the rest of the First World, I live in The States.
I hope you are feeling fairly well.
Thanks!
A visit to the hospital yesterday.
The oil price war was always hopeless, since it was against the Fed and Wall Street, who can print dollars…and the global oil producers pump oil for… well…yes, for dollars.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN21R3JI?__twitter_impression=true
The banks are taking over the shale oil industry.
Yes, but can they print demand? 🤔
Please take note that in my previous posts, the Feds and Central Banks are powerless in manipulating the prices of crude oil in the market. It is because of storage. They can do it easily for copper or other metals but not oil. If they buy a lot of metals, they can store them in warehouses and just forget about it.
However for crude oil, if they buy a lot of futures, thus jacking up the prices, they need to either take delivery at that point of time or sell to someone else like airline companies. You can just throw oil into a warehouse or the sea. Even if you sell to airlines or shipping company, will they take it? They do not have DEMAND.
There is simply no demand for things other than essentials. Please check out this link on what is the hottest thing to buy on the internet : https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/visualizing-pandemiconomy-what-are-shoppers-buying-online-during-covid-19
Central banks cannot print demand. They can print the money and buy up all the cars, planes, iPhones, socks, shoes or anything to drive the economy but at what cost? It will probably cost hundreds of trillions for all central banks in the world to do that. So, after buying up all the phones, cars and socks, are thy going to throw them away? Give them away (which will only make matters worse because people will be waiting for freebies).
If central banks don’t print of withhold stimulus money, then the entire system crashes.
There is no way out of the predicament. Sometimes, you have a “less evil way out” but in this case, just no way at all.
“There is simply no demand for things other than essentials.”
the Z H link concludes:
“Meanwhile, the question remains: will this drastic change in consumer behavior stabilize once we flatten the curve, or is this our new normal?”
the buying seems to be mostly food and meds…
if some semblance of IC survives, then this will be the new economy… an economy of mostly essentials…
food and meds… and then the means to produce and distribute them… FF, electricity, transport, banking, government, internet…
those (sub)systems at a minimum…
other (sub)systems will die out or at least shrink to a small fraction of their former selves:
passenger airline travel, hotels, entertainment (concerts, sports, movies), fashion, perhaps large chunks of (higher) education and (elective) healthcare…
the predicament would be if the nonessential (sub)systems are not enough of a portion of the economy that needs to be discarded, and if the essential (sub)systems are too large for the reset economy to support…
ESSENTIAL FOOD and MEDICATION. How many people on earth are NO involved in both sectors? I think it is a large number. So, where are those people going to work? Government support?
Just witness the lockdown in USA. How many are on unemployment and there is simply no way or no plan for them to be back to work again very soon
I don’t think meds are essential.
Not to the system.
Maybe very basic stuff.
Couldn’t they just burn the oil or dump it in the oceans?
Couldn’t they just burn the oil or dump it in the oceans?
** Did you forget the sarc tag?
Funny you should mention that … I was going to add it for him but couldn’t find the edit option
Maybe they can just flare it off like gas (sarc)
Zerohedge has an article up called China Quietly Injected A Record 5.2 Trillion In New Credit To Kickstart Its Frozen Economy
It also has charts showing that the real economy doesn’t seem to be coming back as much as official manufacturing and servicing PMIs suggest.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/china-traffic-conjection-and-subway-ridership-april-10-2020-zerohedge.png
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That site for official Corona virus data keeps adding more information. They now have near the top active (currently infected) and closed cases (cases which had an outcome). It’s about time the distinction between the two got acknowledged by the world body.
It has as a total deaths in closed cases of 21%, however that is misleading because it includes data from countries that are suspected of providing false data. So I backed out China, Germany (which Chris Martenson finally acknowledged as covering up their death total by backing out those with predisposed conditions) and Iran.
This increased the fatality rate (of those testing positive) to 30.6%, which is unchanged since I last posted this calculation. So out of 1000 people testing positive for this virus on average 306 will pass on.
If you look at active cases you’ll notice the percentage of serious/critical is only 4%, which does not fit statistically with the percentage of deaths. This just means a certain percentage of the mild cases will develop into serious/critical cases. Doctors talk about x-rays of lungs in patients changing by the hour. In some cases patients seem perfectly fine, then 24 hours later are dead.
This virus as a pandemic is recent, only a few months, so it is early to say how bad this will get over time and or if there will be a vaccine. But so far the only reason it hasn’t run rampant with case numbers going wildly into the 10’s of millions is the shutting down of the world economy to a great extent so people can shelter in place, i.e. avoid contact with infected people.
We’ve bought some time for development of drugs to give people a better chance, but if they don’t come through, we’re going to remain in a pickle. If we start up the economy again the virus will spread and if we don’t the economy continues to contract. That’s our current status.
I’m from Germany and i think they report death if the the person tested positive and dies. I saw an article about the cases in Hamburg and the main information was that only people with e.g. cancer died. The last straw that breaks the camel’s back. Do you have a link regarding Chris Martenson’s information?
From the site you linked
A study by the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt (an epicenter of the outbreak in Germany) and found that 2% of the population was currently infected and 14% were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15% of the town have been infected with the virus [source]
If these findings are correct, Germany’s actual death rate could be as low as 0.22% (2,607 deaths / (2,607 cases that have resulted in death + 1,172,000 cases that have resulted in recovery)). Assuming 14% of the German population of 83,700,000 (1,172,000 people) have been infected and have recovered. [source] [source]
It takes a German to get real scientific data. Bravo.
hi 09876…
do you think that because older Germans were all given the TB vaccination, that this is greatly helping?
Gail linked an article saying that up into the 1990s the TB shot was mandatory…
You know i just dont know what to think. On one hand it sure smells like hoax. But im not running around disregarding social distancing either. It would seem a transition is occurring. I have no doubt it will only reflect the reality of a finite world after a real steep learning curve. But back on topic… Im guessing that covid 19 has been around a long time. Theres no way to tell even now how many people have it because the tests suck even now. So with large portions of the population untested and the tests sucking we have no idea of how many people are infected. Thats my guess. IMO any idea about death rates is a guess too. I am doubting that it didnt exist b4 last fall even. That all of the narratives are lies. Yet i dont know… at all. I do know the tone of the talking heads reflects extreme fear in their speech. I am amazed that we humans really thought there was such certainty in outcomes. I am indeed a bit apprehensive but about the extreme actions taken that kill the economy and increase the debt. Perhaps a good session in ICU would change my tune. I am not real fatalistic as a rule. I just dont see this thing going away no matter how much we isolate. Whats life without friends? Whats life without love? Whats life without a way to provide for yourself? From those standpoint alone i question social distancing and the total embracement of what is obviously a transition unlike any we have seen. Let alone the effect on the financial system. I worked as food server at a large hospital in my youth. I remember ICU and the burn wards vividly. I decided a long time ago that i dont want to go out like that. I exercise eat well and have been real lucky. I have always familiarized myself with the law in regards to the right to refuse medical treatment. I consider ones right to control ones body a fundamental right, the quintessential right. I am much dismayed when i review that right in regards to pandemics, the patriot act .400 section ecetera. It would seem that certain authorities have considered pandemic actions for some time. Any one who has worked in a hospital has seen patients in restraints. Even in normal times it has seemed to me that this is arrest without due process. In these times… I am worried. I heard there is a good test for covid 19. 100% accurate. You throw the individual in question in the river. If they sink and drown they did not have covid 19. If they float they are infected.
Fatality rates are a useless metric in general. This is due to us never really knowing the total number of infected as the vast majority have mild or no symptoms or don’t get tested.
Also there may be an issue where authorities in some jurisdictions are not distinguishing between dying from Covid vs dying with Covid. Pre-existing health conditions muddy the waters significantly. Chemical drugs being the only solution is a false paradigm.
yes the rates are uncertain and inaccurate, most likely inflating the death rates…
(flu death rates are not certain either… the case numbers are broadly estimated…)
but there are some general truths that seem to be emerging…
“Pre-existing health conditions muddy the waters significantly.”
death with the flu happens mostly with patients with preexisting conditions too…
one general truth seems to be that this virus kills about 5 to 10 times more people with preexisting conditions than the average flu kills people with preexisting conditions…
with equally health compromised patients, this virus is much worse than flu…
Senator Dr. Scott Jensen from Minnesota discusses how the AMA is encouraging doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the USA.
Dr. Jensen received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test confirming the diagnosis.
“Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do.”
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/physician-speaks-out-hospitals-are-getting-paid-more-to-list-patients-as-covid-19/
How else is the U.S. healthcare racket going to turn a profit, now that elective surgeries are off the table, literally?
Wanted; Hospital billing specialist with strong skill set in covid 19 billing codes.
Well, even in the middle of this global corporate debacle, there is always a silver line. Not all businesses are plummeting! Hurray!
“Real estate salesman Robert Vicino is literally sitting pretty when it comes to his business — selling underground bunkers from the Black Hills of South Dakota to a remote underground city in Rothenstein, Germany. Unlike the millennial owner of a Manhattan startup who had to pull the plug on his luxe, mask-free spa last week, Vicino says business is booming in what survivalists call the “bug-out” business.
His company, Vivos, also sells bunkers in Indiana and is planning new bunkers in Asia and Marbella, Spain. He said sales are up 400% this year although his cheaper properties (35,000 euros for a big bunker in South Dakota) are selling faster than the 2 million euros, five-star Vivos Europa One underground apartments carved into a German mountain, part of a facility originally used by the Soviets to store munitions in case they invaded western Europe.”
https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/inside-the-luxurious-underground-bunkers-where-the-rich-bug-out/
Nobel Prize-winning economist William Nordhaus explains why the global fight against climate change is failing, and lays out a vision of how to make international climate agreements work.
«The Climate Club
How to Fix a Failing Global Effort
Climate change is the major environmental challenge facing nations today, and it is increasingly viewed as one of the central issues in international relations. Yet governments have used a flawed architecture in their attempts to forge treaties to counter it. The key agreements, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris climate accord, have relied on voluntary arrangements, which induce free-riding that undermines any agreement.
States need to reconceptualize climate agreements and replace the current flawed model with an alternative that has a different incentive structure—what I would call the “Climate Club.” Nations can overcome the syndrome of free-riding in international climate agreements if they adopt the club model and include penalties for nations that do not participate. Otherwise, the global effort to curb climate change is sure to fail.»
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-10/climate-club?utm_campaign=special_send_nordhaus_climate_club_reguser&utm_content=20200410&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=pre_release&utm_term=registrant-prerelease
The best way to fight climate change is to shut down the entire economy using the prextext of “public health”, then try to sneak green energy subsidies into the bailout packages, so that the public is forced to use green energy only.
People can die with a clear conscience that way. They did what they could to help the keep the climate closer to what it is now, so the ecosystem won’t need to adapt to too much change.
We don’t know yet whether there will be future generations of humans in the parts of the world we live in. Maybe something else will bring about their end, such as radiation from spent fuel pools. There are lots of things we don’t understand.
Could it be …. that GEEEETA was able to use her powerful oratorical skills to convince all those business leaders and world leaders to commit suicide — in the name of saving Mother?
Did I not suggest that the only way to get so many people to play ball with what is very obviously a Big Lie…
Is if you could convince them that what you are offering is better than the alternative.
Choice A – continue to ruin and pollute Mother
Choice B – launch a flu — hype it up so that we can shut down the economy — eliminate humans – Mother is saved!
Here’s the thing…
We’ll stop burning stuff and dumping stuff in the ocean … but… BUT…. there is a slight flaw here…
4000 spent fuel ponds that will spew for thousands of years …. if that pollutes and the water and land one might suspect that because every living organism needs water.. that this might end every living organism
Thus mother is not really saved by our collective suicide. She may end up looking like a bigger version of the mo on.
No spot for Geeeeta on the Dream Team. Sorry Geeeta no soup for you! (Larry just dropped by and said I should add that soup reference)
https://youtu.be/M2lfZg-apSA
These people should be careful what they wish for. Without access to reasonably priced energy, people will turn increasingly to burning wood and other biomass, so much so that within five years they may strip the countryside bare of forest in many places producing tremendous air pollution and creating a Haiti-like landscape in the process.
The global movement against climate change is failing because it was never intended to succeed. It was intended to concentrate yet more wealth and power in the hands of the global elite, and at that it is succeeding very well. So why should they change?
Cuz Geeeta said they should????
BTW – it has been confirmed GEEETAAAA is carrying Justin’s baby.
I’ve moved from a nice Japanese single malt to a big fat G&T…. M Fast is training up the two i-students — the girl is the bartender and the boy is the butler… she makes a mean G&T.
The appeal of Bruno Bobone, the president of the Portuguese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCIP) is of an urgent nature, companies are languishing and they will not be able to stay another month without working, under the risk of unemployment skyrocketing and starvation. in the streets. The manager says that the Government is being conditioned in its decisions by the President of the Republic, and considers that the political power must act quickly, otherwise they are creating a very serious economic problem.
“We have an obligation to relaunch the economy urgently, taking, of course, every care, necessary protection and remoteness. Austria and Norway have already they did and are rich countries, they are not poor like us. We already realized that this disease does not put the active population at risk of life “, defends Bruno Bobone, speaking to Expresso.
“Losing a month of work – and we have been stopped for almost a month – , it is a brutality. If we stay closed after May, it will be tragic, because there are people who will start to go hungry. First they will rob, then they will revolt “, he warns. “We have to have the courage to decide to risk going back to work”, he says.
“We have a business fabric of micro and small companies, sometimes without the capacity to respond to the demands imposed on them by banks to access credit lines”, he explains.
“Micro companies cannot be required, as is happening, to put all their personal assets at risk, given as collateral, in a process that they cannot guarantee will result, and that is politically controlled”, declares Bruno Bobone, who is also a businessman.
https://expresso.pt/economia/2020-04-10-Covid-19.-As-fabricas-tem-de-arrancar-a-seguir-a-Pascoa-sob-pena-de-haver-fome-apela-Bruno-Bobone
Someone has some sense!
the key word is courage.
The people who formulated the lockdown response are pampered cowards. They could go months or even years without having to work or leave their homes and assume that is the norm. The lockdown response is coming from the same social class that thinks “crying closets” are appropriate for well-adjusted people during normal times.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2018/04/cry-closets-are-a-great-idea-thanks-millennials.html
Last comment of the day for me:
This lock down is the opposite of Keynesian economics which basically worked until it didn’t.
Many have wished, hope for or anticipated a new economic form, well, it looks as though one might be coming.
Something is going to work, the trick is being an early adapter with liquidity to survive the inevitable self doubt.
Dennis L.
The Federal Reserve is bailing out everyone at this point and is expanding to foreign parties as well. They’ve now demonstrated that there is no limit to what they will buy in order to prevent others from selling. And if you inhibit others from selling collateral, treasuries or MBS for example, then you stop the prices from plummeting. They’re attempting to reinflate everything including the stock markets. Yesterday they announced they were purchasing ETF’s and junk bonds in addition to another 2.3 Trillion dollar loan program for small businesses and municipalities. That is the proverbial kitchen sink.
Everyday now they’re announcing a new facility or loan program or simply jaw boning about how they have unlimited firepower to levitate the economy while we all hide. How long can this reasonably last? In my educated and speculative opinion, I would say they’re going to be successful in the short term, perhaps a few months or so. The real problems will manifest themselves in terms of real physical assets like food or oil or a war even. The debt doesn’t matter, interest rates will never go above zero again. They cannot ever attempt to normalize rates again, that game is over.
I’m seeing refineries in idle ready to shut down this week. Mexico, Russia, OPEC, all seem like they’re going to maybe cut 15 million barrels per day. The last 6 of 7 days the US stored the maximum it could at 2 MBD. Speculation on financial sites says the real April crude usage could be 20-30 MBD, so I don’t see how cutting 15 does anything but buys us some time. Like the central bank, I’m seeing maneuvers here by all concerned parties to simply buy more time.
In the US it looks like we’ve plateaued with new cases and the deaths lag by 1-2 weeks so they could keep going up. If something semi miraculous happens and we’re able to even partially reopen the economy by May, I think we have a legitimate chance of another year or two of a lesser BAU lifestyle before a total collapse seems more probable. On the other hand if we hide out until July or September or something, I think we just keep collapsing at the current rates and at some point components of the system will fail. Weather that’s oil delivered to pumps, steaks delivered to our doorsteps, or the government no longer being able to cook the books is anyone’s guess.
If you have wealth and are wanting to preserve it then I recommend investing in physical gold and US stocks, especially if the federal reserve announces what ETF’s they’re buying. US stocks are unlikely to crash with this much liquidity and debt being piled into the system and are up 20% from last month’s low, technically starting a new bull market. They will crash hard eventually but that would suggest the Fed has lost control and they clearly haven’t yet. As proof what happened the last 3 massive unemployment Thursdays in the market? It was up, and up a lot in some cases. Bad news doesn’t matter anymore and random unsubstantiated Tweets will push stocks up massively. In fact when reduced first quarter earnings are taken into account, the P/E ratio has never been higher in stocks than it is right now. We are at new highs in the market during a pandemic, proof yet that the Federal Reserve is in control.
And that’s 20-30 MBD surplus from current oil usage. I’m sorry that wasn’t more clear. So if we were using 85 MBD, estimates show us using 55-65 MBD globally. So a cut of 15 MBD isn’t going to cause supply and demand to level off.
Thanks Tango. That sounds like a good assessment of the situation to me.
All of the intervention may keep insurance companies and pension plans going a bit longer as well.
The easiest way to stop investors from selling would be to shut down the U.S. stock market
AND
and…stock markets around the world.
No trading means no selling.
https://decisiveminds.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/easy-button.jpg
That would cause a panic however and prevent people with 401K’s from making withdrawals. They’re trying to do the opposite of that.
Well, they are buying up everything. Even the junk. Let no billionaire hedge fund be left behind!
Corona Virus May take out the oil industry once and for all. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/will-the-coronavirus-kill-the-oil-industry
This is a Bill McKibben piece. I suppose he couldn’t imagine a better scenario than the current one, except he has no idea regarding what is ahead.
Earth Day turns 50 in 11 days.
I just came across this 6-minute video from a doctor on the front lines in NYC posted on Mar 31. He says the disease caused by COVID-19 isn’t pneumonia but some form of oxygen deprivation akin to high-altitude sickness, and that the currently recommended method of using ventilators is causing more harm than good. The intro reads as follows.
“I am a physician who has been working at the bedside of COVID+ patients in NYC. I believe we are treating the wrong disease and that we must change what we are doing if we want to save as many lives as possible. I welcome any feedback, especially from those bedside: doctors, nurses, xray techs, pharmacists, anyone and everyone. Does this sound wrong or right, is something more right?”
https://youtu.be/k9GYTc53r2o
It is breathe taking the whole world is being ruled with zero reliable information. What don’t we know? How many are infected? How many are immune? How many who get infected can recover with zero hospital treatment? How many who get infected can recover with simple nursing care (rest and drink plenty of fluids)? Do any of the proposed drugs do any good? What fraction will need vents and will then recover? will then die? will then be maimed? What fraction of the population will die with no “modern” medicine intervention? What fraction will die with simple “modern” medicine? with extraordinary “modern” medicine? Will anybody acquire immunity? Will immunity last? Will virus mutate? At what rate? Is this just a one pass 1% die and done? Is this the end of all humans (seems unlikely)?
Ed,
It is called the practice of medicine for good reason. Scientists are very narrow in their scope.
Last question: answer, nope. We have been here too many years, we roam the earth, dinosaurs did not live/roam the mountains, cold temperatures, etc. We adapt and are resilient.
Guess going forward, all the financial types are toast, it is not that hard, all the contracts are skims, AI will allow some/many to skip the skims. The metaphor has been abused, but “They can learn to code.”
The intervention question is relevant. Ecology/adaptation/evolution etc. does not work with band aids, the lion eats the slowest not the fastest prey. Modern medicine which attempts to correct poor original engineering could be a dead end, a very emotionally traumatic dead end to be sure and not one to be minimized.
Bacteria/viruses seem to keep themselves in a balance, wipe out a “good” germ and the bad ones take over. We have wiped out a great many diseases, the remaining ones seem to be pretty tough, but again, there are billions of us, we will endure.
Will immunity last? Guess, nothing lasts, everything evolves. The world is not deterministic.
Dennis L.
As follow up to your second last paragraph, despite the complex chemical usage there still must be performed crop rotation because of the spread of bacteria/viral diseases in the soil. In short, compromised JITs-BAU = epic famine ensues in 2-3yrs only because of the disease lowering yield vector.. now add fuel/machinery/labor/distro issues on top of it..
I believe no numbers. The NYT wrote a piece about Elmherst hospital in NYC being the scene of the covid apocalypse — I have confirmed it is not. NYT is LYING.
If the MSM will invent something like that then obviously they’ll invent numbers. In fact they MUST invent numbers – its the key to the ho ax. And who can check?
By the way, now I’ve posted this, I see it’s already been brought to the forum’s attention. Please accept my apologies for any inconvenience.
Kunstler says “Let’s face it: this is a twilight zone between stupor and fury. Nobody is paying anything to anyone. All obligations are suspended: salaries, rents, mortgages, bills, loans, bets, and vigs, all up in the air”
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/risings-and-fallings/
money velocity at zero.
interest rates should be 15%
interest rates at zero
we need vents for the economy
best case they salvage it and dollar loses half its buying power
until the next time
but maybe if the patient is already on total life support it doesnt matter
I very much agree with this post. It is a strange world we live in, where stock prices rise on the possibility that there will be a recovery in the third quarter. He ends the post with, “The weeks ahead there will give the phrase down-to-earth a whole new meaning.”
Shut them down!
It’s not likely to be the last. Major U.S. refiners, including Marathon, Valero Energy Corp. and Phillips 66, have lowered rates at their facilities to be at or near minimum levels as storage tanks fill up with fuel they can’t sell. While that “minimum” level differs from company to company, and in fact from plant to plant, it’s seen typically somewhere around 60% to 65% of capacity. Below that, many facilities need to be idled.
“If after cutting rates to a minimum, refiners are still unable to move their products, they are faced with the prospect of completely shutting down,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.
Slowing down a refinery isn’t like turning down the fire on a gas range when the water threatens to boil over. A refinery is a complex web of interconnected units, so once the amount of crude being processed in the distillation unit falls too low, secondary units don’t have enough feedstock to keep running. Since many units operate under high pressure as well as high temperature, it becomes more difficult to maintain the proper conditions for operation.
“It’s complicated to keep the refinery in balance,” said Stephen Wolfe, head of crude oil at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “The rule of thumb for me was always 65% of the CDU. Below that, things get complicated. As you reduce rates, all the downstream operations have to be properly supplied, there are hydraulics limitations to how low you can go
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/america-oil-refineries-may-brink-090000656.html
As Gail pointed out…we are in motion of Collapse….
I believe there is a limit on how low a percentage of pipeline capacity that can be used. In Alaska, in particular, I know that oil that comes out of the well is hot and liquid. As it travels in the pipeline, it tends to cool. If there is not enough oil in the pipeline, it becomes too viscous to travel. It is necessary to add equipment to allow for heating the pipelines. If oil prices are low, this is unlikely to happen. So I expect that Alaskan oil will disappear relatively quickly with low oil prices.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVN_RYfU4AAkCtK?format=jpg&name=large. Youshua you can explaine please? April Is now how can euro broken? Maybe in August when stock market are strange and hole of debit from turism rise
I think a big question is whether tourism and everything else can be restarted.
I wonder if the breaking of the Euro will have to do with the Euro being replaced by individual currencies for European countries.
Tourism will not return as before because people are also afraid of going to work people are afraid of leaving home, there will be some tourism, but very different very reduced very reduced. If not National currency how else?
At some point, the EU seems likely to disappear. Perhaps it won’t be able to get enough funding from the individual members. Then it would seem as though each country would need to issue its own currency again.
People will have to be reassured as to three things:
1/ No mass-quarantines in hotels.
2/ They will be able to take the plane home which they have tickets for.
3/ No sudden border closures.
How likely are these three conditions to be met?
Yes indeed. I want to go to Costa Rica I only require #1.
I drove there.
You get better adjusted after driving through Central America and Mexico.
But not for most travelers.
Tourists often travel around in buses where social distancing would be hard to enact. OTOH, I suppose hotels could get into the immune-boosting business as something of a counter (mitigation) measure.
In one scenario, many countries will just forbid Asians to enter their territory since one could make the argument that Asians, particularly the Chinese, spread this thing and covered it up and have refused to close their wet markets.
In another scenario, mass migration and tourism resume despite the fact some people are doing things to make themselves contract COVID-19, like eat exotic food. COVID-19 could become like AIDS and Ebola,where the elite will tell us we are prejudiced if we point out “x group” is doing something that may hurt others. Promiscuity? Wet markets? Bush Meat? No, those aren’t problems. You’re the problem, you *******ist.
No one will point out that if there weren’t so many people, humans would not have to eat things that they would not even have considered 2,000 years ago.
We in the beginning of April. This chart shows that the Euro will breakdown in middle of April. The value will fall by 25% to 30% perhaps.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVN_RYfU4AAkCtK?format=jpg&name=large
Interesting, I’d rather bet the Southern countries (again) eat their pride – sovereignty and agree to very bad deal – bailout theft ala Greece few yrs ago. Simply, the immediate pain of going national currency (devaluation of ~40-70% and no bridging credit line) is still too big of a deterrent..
My sister works in dispatch for BNSF railroad. She told me it’s as busy as it ever gets. Lots of cargo moving on rails.
keep the food supply moving!
Watch civilization dying …. in real time.
Check the airspace over Hong Kong (not a single flight in or outbound) …. Bali (two flights active) … Bangkok (a handful)….
Creepy stuff ….
https://www.flightradar24.com/22.18,114/10
And some of those planes are cargo – click the plane for details
Wow!
Checking HK now — there are 4 or 5 planes on the ground one in the air departing … the app indicates mainly cargo….
When FE is creeped out it may actually be the end of the world.
A foretaste of the world as it will have to be if the CAGW cult has its way with its demands that the world ‘transition’ to net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.[or before as some demand]…..ie no tourism…no air travel…little air cargo transport…curtailed shipping…truncated trade….an insular subsistence world ?
I have hinted that GGGEEEEETA might be behind this …. wasn’t it just a few short months ago she was screaming HOW DARE YOU!!!
She was meeting with all the honchos…. UN heads of state…. corporate titans…. the works….
Rumour has it Justin Bieber was woooing her… and that they may have ‘got it on’ in the parking lot of Whole Foods.
And look at THIS. The candle is barely flickering — the skies are clear…..
Coincidence?
http://krapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/LadyHuhFINAL.jpg
It depends a lot on time on day. Now, during the daytime, there are lots of planes over the US.
Depends on the country …. I do not believe the US has banned all foreign arrivals?
If you are not a citizen or permanent resident in HK, Australia and NZ (I am sure there are others)… then there will be very few international flights. Most will be dedicated cargo — a few will have some passengers (no tourists of course) along with cargo — I saw photos of planes with cargo strapped onto the seats of a passenger plane because it was mostly empty (Lufthansa…)
In NZ there are also almost no domestic flights because of the lockdown – only cargo and essential services people can fly.
In Australia there is no total lockdown so there are still people moving around.
HK of course has no domestic flights….
In the US the skies appear cluttered but if you zero in on a destination it does not look so cluttered. If you could compare with shots from a year ago the difference would be dramatic
Obviously the volume of air traffic has collapsed in the US as well but it’s nowhere near as grim as with many other countries.
Now we’ll see what the lack of the aerosol masking effect (McPherson) will do or not do in the weeks and months ahead.
It just occurred to me…. the ice hockey season may be cancelled due to the lockdown…
On most days you can ski and golf — you could swim in one of the lakes cuz there is never any ice….
It’s far too warm in the winter to make an outdoor rink.
But … BUT —- surely things are going to go into the deep freeze with all the oil and coal that is not being burned…
So SO…. maybe I will be able to create a rink out back…
And if it is much colder then instead of having to drive 3/4 of the way up coronet peak (to the peak) to reach the snow… there will be snow right to the bottom of the mountain.
And because there is already a road 3/4 of the way up the mountain… but no lift — not a problem — surely it will be cheaper and faster just to run buses from the bottom to the top since the costs of the road are already sunk!
I completely agree with all of this — he is basically a vile human being … irredeemable (anyone in his position who shags po…rn stars is rather pathetic… if I do that though it would be ok as I am not in his position….)
The disturbing thing is that he was elected and he is likely to get elected again. So rather than point the finger at him – maybe the finger needs to be pointed at the American people — this is what they want – this is what they get…. Along Kim and Paris and the rest of the shit show.
That’s why I can’t get too worked up about the guy… as far as I am concerned he’s just a symptom.
Someone asked “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?”
Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England, wrote this magnificent response:
“A few things spring to mind.
Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility – for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is – his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults – he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface.
Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.
Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.
And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.
Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.
He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.
He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.
And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.
That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.
There are unspoken rules to this stuff – the Queensberry rules of basic decency – and he breaks them all. He punches downwards – which a gentleman should, would, could never do – and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless – and he kicks them when they are down.
So the fact that a significant minority – perhaps a third – of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think ‘Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
* Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
* You don’t need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.
This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.
After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.
God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.
He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart.
In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws – he would make a Trump.
And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:
‘My God… what… have… I… created?
If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.”
Nice isn’t the characteristic a person is looking for, when a person wants to turn the system around. A person wants characteristics which are pretty much the opposite of nice. In fact, good thinking ability doesn’t seem to be high on the list, either. If we think back to Ronald Reagan and his wife Nancy. Ronald Reagan was willing to shift the system to “debt and more debt.” He was the first divorced president. His wife consulted an astrologer on every major decision Reagan made. By the time Reagan left the White House, many believed he was already having memory problems, although these did not rise to the level of an Alzheimer’s diagnosis.
Compared to whom?
Reagan was a wonderful President compared to ANY Democrat POTUS.
What sort of excuse for a human being was Dem hero JFK?
Carter set America back for years.
Clinton benefited from the tech bubble…and from Gingrich’s ideas from his Contract with America….then mandated NINJA loans and repealed Glass-Steagall to enable the megabanks that bundled the sub-prime loans into securities and gave the world the GFC.
When the George W Bush administration tried to prevent the GFC by re-regulating…the Democrats’ Barney Frank and others prevented it.
The nefarious Clintons have been nothing but a stain on America’s history in the opinion of many people worldwide.
Obama ran down the military and ran up the debt …made open borders the order of the day…worsening conditions for African Americans and other workers …politicised the IRS…and yet it’s Trump who is slimed for mitigating many sectors of the US economy and foreign relations while under constant ,,,unprecedented felonious attack…from the MSM and the Deep State [on the record] from the day he was elected.
There is a difference between a stern taskmaster with some charisma— and a lowlife who bangs p-ornstars and has the charisma of a school yard bully.
(I am playing both sides of the fence on this one… see my earlier posts re the alternatives and how it really does not matter)
Fast we the American people are not to blame. In 1896 (please note the 8) the people’s candidate was ahead in the presidential race. The owning class saw this and threw in enough money to get their candidate elected. Blame the owning class.
Yep…. that’s another reason Trump does not irritate me…. POTUS is powerless. All Puff no Power.
1. Remember Occupy – did POTUS step in when the police were kicking the sh it out of those kids – nope -NOT A PEEP!
2. NSA – Edward pulled back the curtain — we were aghast. Has the NSA stopped? NOPE.
Queue the meat head brigade who will immediately do what they are programmed to do (by the MSM) and pounce with ‘conspi racy theorist — crazy Fast Eddy yadda yadda )……
Because you are brainless automatons … trained simians…….
For those who have resisted the borg…… reread the above 2 points — then read this:
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
As despicable as Trump is …. I can absolutely see why people voted for him — he clearly is a different animal to the average smooth talking, political correct, networked, often condescending swamp creatures in Washington. Seems people were looking for an alternative — and he had a great tag line – MAGA…. Sometimes that’s all it takes…
Bill Clinton is the poster boy for that lot (how many trips on Epstein’s plane — and getting su—cked off under his desk by Monica and how many others — not a whole lot different from Trump
They are both IKEA pressboard furniture — Bill just has veneer… (credit to Larry David for that one-liner)
HRC was exposed in that leak as a major ‘player’ as well… and that sunk her
We had a retired US fireman staying a few months ago and he loves Trump – the way he put was ‘he’s not a politician – he’s ruff and gruff and says whatever he wants – he doesn’t give a shit what it sounds like – he’s authentic’ Apparently it does not matter than he bangs po—-rn stars… in fact the average guy probably thinks that’s great (cuz he’d LOVE to bang a po—rn star hahaha)
As for Obama — he certainly has character but does anyone think that the average guy in the US is not aware of the fact that the minute he finished up he picked up a $1.2M check from making 3 speeches on Wall Street….. and that was seen as a reward for a job well done. Doesn’t matter if it was or wasn’t —- that’s the perception.
End of the day Washington remains the domain of the lobbyists — there’s a pretty good movie (name escapes me) where some guy gets elected — goes to the capitol with the best of intentions and is dismayed when he realizes how it all works…..
One thing Trump has right is that Washington is a swamp — still waiting on him to drain it….. of course that is never going to happen.
If anyone seriously tried to act on such a promise … the swamp would pull them down and bury them under tonnes of ooze and filth. And a more compliant person would replace them….
It amazes me that people are unable to see this ….. when it is so obvious to me.
But then I remember the formula :
E.M…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… P
I actually enjoyed this post though I disagree. Trumps is the best we have. And the alternative? I of course was rooting for Ron Paul. A doctor who delivered thousands of babies. His son is not his father. But in a imaginary reality where debt is power a Ron Paul can not be nominated.
I used to pass this video of HRC to fan boys during the elections …
I may have mentioned that she was controlled by the Russians and the signal was lost causing her to have a ‘seizure’ (think of what happens when your computer freezes up.. when you watch the video below) …
I am surprised that MSNBC and CNN didn’t jump all over this Manchurian candidate stuff .. clearly she is being controlled by someone — all we needed to do was saw her head open and check the computer chip?
https://youtu.be/Hd4NH9jKNas
F E and I for once are in complete agreement, totally, absolutely
I am now going for a lie down in a darkened room
If Mrs FE is available, post virus, send her up with tea and biscuits.
Ya – but you may not feel the same after you read my evisceration of the alternatives….
Also consider this — if I was an American — and you put a gun to my head and said VOTE!
I would most definitely vote for Trump.
The reason for this is that he is scum — but then so are Obama and Bush and the Clintons …
The difference is that the latter are sophisticated scum…. they actually do not believe they are scum… they believe they are bright shining beacons of light in the swamp…. I am sure they really do….
They attend their liberal galas ….and catillions (don’t forget the catillions)…. they know all the right people …. but in reality they are vile swamp monsters….. which makes them a 1000x worse than Trump…
And they are all errand boys at the end of the day…. that they definitely know. They sign up because they are on ego trips and what better way to stoke the ego than with a Ms/Mr America crown — your own 747…. but no crown — others have the crown.
What I like about Trump is he makes a mockery out of the office. Because it is a joke.
All those others they take it so seriously … as if they actually are not errand boys… they let it go to their heads…
Does anyone remember that part in Taleb’s Black Swan — where he is in the meeting with the VERY serious financial people … and he’s sitting their thinking what a load of sh it this is…. as he looks at them with their expensive suits… perfect hair…. polished demeanours…
I’ve been there…. listening to serious people give a presentation …. I’ve contemplated interrupting and saying hey guys — I’m loving this discussion of the debt covenants and all that …. but can you give me a few minutes… I need to take a sh it……
(Larry … you truly have outdone yourself…. I almost sh it myself transcriping that one-liner)
Yep – I’d vote for Trump – just for fun!
Waddya say now Norm?
mine eyes are too tired to roll
Oh, get off him, he’s much better than his 2016 opponent, who is also rather humorless, and would have had us all in WWIII by now, and what, exactly, did Obama accomplish carrying out Bush’s third and forth terms? Besides his Nobel Peace Prize work, of course.
See my other posts on this topic.
I’d like to go on record with this – burn them all alive….
We don’t need any Brits opinion of Trump….you do not even matter
MAGA bro! Any day now.
Kinda like how the previous two admins delivered on Hope and Change.
Anyone who takes sides in the US political scene surely has some Donkey DNA mixed in with their simian strands.
Either that or their mama was doing 8 balls and acid with shots of Jim Beam on a daily basis throughout the pregnancy .. and their ‘daddy’ is some some buck toothed hill BILLY she met out back of the toilet in some dodgy bar who paid 10 bucks for a quicky.
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/1gAbefUu9Wg/hqdefault.jpg
I was trying to inject a little humour into the thread
After the moon landing nonsense, I’m not wasting limited thinktime on another batch of idiocy surrounding Trump–the man is what he is, exposed by his own words and deeds, supported and encouraged by those of similar mental outlook and capacity.
Unlike the moon landings, he can’t be photoshopped into something he is not
It requires no further input from me
Trump just recommended zinc for use in treating coronavirus. Ya gotta luv dis POTUS!
The Dems naturally freaked. But the Don has sound science on his side. What a guy!!
While were on the subject of the virus, Martin Armstrong writes:
Whenever the government creates a program, they alter the incentives within society. I mentioned I have a friend in London whose mother went to the hospital and he knew she was near death. After two days, the hospital claimed she died of the Coronavirus. He said how since she did not go in with that? The joke in London is that COVID-19 is the miracle cure. Nobody in London has died from a heart attack, only COVID.
Senator Dr. Scott Jensen of Minnesota came out to expose how the AMA is encouraging American doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the US. He showed a 7-page document coaching him, as a doctor, to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus. Why? Because of the package for this relief, hospitals are paid more to attend this virus. NOBODY is dying of the flu any more – only COVID-19
The numbers will then be used to justify keeping the money flowing to misrepresent this as an epidemic. This fraud will then come back to justify keeping the economy locked down longer and the AMA is now contributing to the destruction of everyone’s livelihood, pension, and this exposes the corruption that always emerges with government programs.
This is when the lawyers need to see the dollars floating in the air. It is time for a class-action lawsuit against the AMA for misrepresenting this virus which is destroying small businesses and drastically increasing unemployment. Come on – we have plenty of lawyers reading this. Now’s the time to do something constructive. What the AMA is encouraging is FRAUD and to classify a death to COVID-19 without testing is actionable FRAUD. This is no different from Medicare Fraud which is a crime – For Medicaid and Medicare fraud, federal law establishes (1) a civil statute of limitations of six years (42 U.S.C. § 1320a-7a(c)(1)), and (2) a criminal statute of limitations of five years (18 U.S.C. § 3282).
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/the-covid-19-fraud-its-massive/
“For instance, he (Trump) has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.”
However, he has the one quality that matters: competence. But the liberal elite ignore this quality, because they are buried deep in their own illusions of competence and cannot see that almost everything they do is doomed to failure. So they rebuild their self esteem by slandering success.
competence? From day one that the virus arrived in USA?
erm—tell me what I’m missing, Im always willng to listen and learn
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/osha-labor-department-coronavirus-cases-at-work_n_5e91cc70c5b6f7b1ea8218bf
Norman, thank you for your challenge. It is late for me, so I shall mention only one competent action: banning flights from China, when everyone else (including the WHO) said that was unnecessary, and when the tame liars in the media immediately called it “racist”. That decision saved many lives. Perhaps more tomorrow, but, again, I welcome your skeptical contributions.
i get the impression that if santa claus was flying in from china, trump would ban him
And if you look at what HRC did to Seth Rich … she’d probably wack Santa with a cruise missile (if he dared to leak any dirt on the wit ch)
Jeez stop thar Bob – when I read your comment I spilled my G&T laughing.
First of all Trump was late to that party – other countries had already banned China flights including our Grade 3 Teacher/PM Jacinda ‘the moaning’ Ardern
Now here’s where it gets complicated…. I guess Trump (he’s not alone) must have thought that only Chinese people could harbour the Wuhan … because people from all other countries continued to fly into America.
Ban the Chinese — problem solved.
Wow – awesome Don. You thought of everything didn’t you.
You are such a competent leader!
Vote for Competence in 2020. Vote for Trump.
http://krapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/LadyHuhFINAL.jpg
What do you reckon Bob — since Don is so competent if we get through this — should the US change the rules and make him Emperor For Life?
https://classicalwisdom.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/TYRANT-TRUMP2.jpg
even the competence of a crook must be defined by not getting caught
the don had to repay $25m on frauds by trump Uni.
Then used funds from his own charitable foundation to buy a portrait of himself that nobody else wanted.
The washington post were documenting his lies on a daily basis, I don’t know if they still do, but I know it got to around 12000.
There’s much more, but it would waste breathing time. One can only do a comparison with the previous incumbent
Enough further incompetence is listed here:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-broken-promises-coronavirus_n_5e927d9ac5b68ca47636ce3f
There’s no challenge involved, I don’t see much point in debating established information
if I sat at the controls of a moving airliner or supertanker, I would give the impression of being in competent control, because the ‘systems’ would allow me to do so
my incompetence would be revealed if I had to land or dock the above, or perform any ‘extraordinary’ manuoevres.
And the Toronto Maple Leafs are far superior to the Montreal Canadiens….
Austen Matthews is a scoring machine!!
I vote for Toronto!
Hey Bob… is it ok if I call you Bob?
If I lived in a McMansion and every couple of months I wheeled in with a new toy… a nice boat, a flash sports car, a new SUV, a kick ass lawn tractor etc etc…
If I was maintaining that lifestyle by building up a mountain of debt…
Would you say that I am … competent?
Before you make catch your face in my trap
https://media.giphy.com/media/4Nky3RsWQqjoQ/giphy.gif
Check out google to have a look at the US deficit since Trump became
And keep in mind there are those who believe Obama was fabulously competent…
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/03/01/20160301_obama.jpg
Now you can answer my question … Bob… (yes I know … it’s quite exasperating dealing with this FE character… you can always use Norm’s strategy and just say ‘because’…. then walk away feeling as if you have won… if you do that enough you will convince yourself that you have won)
Your argument would be stronger if you posted true graphs rather than fake graphs. Four of those graphs are obviously false: food stamp usage has declined, labour force participation (and hence median income) have increased, and home ownership has remained about level. Student loans and healthcare are rackets so deeply embedded in the US psyche that no one administration could address them.
“The UK fishing industry is worth £989m annually, with Scottish vessels responsible for more than half, at £574m in 2018. More than 70% of its catch is exported, mainly to Europe and Asia, but foreign and hospitality markets have collapsed in the crisis. While a much smaller retail market still exists for some fish, many supermarkets have shut their fish counters, reducing demand further. For high-value shellfish, the market is now virtually nonexistent.
“Langoustine, shrimp and prawn are almost impossible to get rid of and the demand for crab and lobster in China has just vaporised,” said David Dickens, the Mission’s chief executive. “When there’s a pandemic, people aren’t interested in high quality seafood.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/10/scottish-fishermen-turn-to-food-banks-as-covid-19-devastates-industry
“The average price of a beef carcass has dropped around £80, which equates to 10 per cent, in recent days. Other indicators suggest prices are up to 20 per cent lower in a month. And even before that, they were at five-year lows.
“‘Now beef is being sold at a loss,’ says Neil Shand, of the National Beef Association. ‘These are grim times. We cannot furlough staff. Ewes still need to lamb and cows have to calve.'”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8206293/GUY-ADAMS-investigates-meat-industry-coping-coronavirus-pandemic.html
“A dairy farmer from Leicestershire has had to throw away 9,000 litres of milk in one day because he says demand has declined rapidly following the coronavirus outbreak.
“Andrew Birkle, who has been farming for almost 40 years, says the closures of coffee shops and cafes has resulted in people drinking less milk.”
https://www.itv.com/news/central/2020-04-08/thousands-of-litres-of-milk-thrown-away-following-coronavirus/
milk beef or oil
the common denominator is energy, specifically energy that cannot now be consumed within the system we have
we have lived through an era (from about the end of ww2) where we created a ‘surplus’ through market forces, and so an outlet had to be found for that surplus.
We had created colossal surpluses of iron (that’s what kicked it off in the 19th c), so uses had to be found for it. iron lets you plough more land, that provides more food, more food produces more kids, who in turn demand iron products.
Where I live, iron was so cheap they used it for kerb stones and window frames.
And so on ad infinitum. You can only access cheap energy with cheap iron. (and heat)
the kids grow up believing pastors and politicians who told then it was their cleverness that brought their utopian (American) dream. It wasn’t, it was the energy surplus delivered by (again) cheap iron.
And so the consumer economy had to expand to create the jobs and absorb the people. So now you have a dozen restaurants in a 200 yard long street in the smallest town. (I’ve counted them).
That to us is the new normality. and the energy producers regard it as such. But to sustain this madness, we must open more and more ‘energy outlets’ despite the fact that we cannot absorb any more energy into the system.
Same applies to cars, planes, anything that consumes our ‘excess’. We must consume excess to stay alive. I don’t ‘need’ to fly or drive. I do it because i can afford it. I absorb excess and give someone else a job by doing so. My grandfather had no way of doing that. He walked everywhere.
The Covid virus has slammed the brakes on.
Suddenly we face the stark reality that we need only basic energy input, and (think) we can survive without the rest of the social paraphernalia,
But that social paraphernalia is what makes our economic existence tick.
It ticks away each day , as we spend energy to make it go faster for us, under the universal delusion that spending money creates wealth. (you get a Nobel economics prize for saying that)
Hence the obsession with ‘GDP’. GDP is our all—it must be 4- 5 – 6% ‘growth’ year on year. Yet a visit to the hairdresser adds to ‘GDP’ but creates no actual wealth, only circulates money.
Proving that GDP is an economists’ delusion, latched onto by politicians to make us believe in an infinite economic utopia.
My first tractor was a 1960 Ford diesel. There was a little toggle switch to turn on heaters for the intake manifold. It failed due to rust, etc and I had to replace it. The switch was situated in an enclosure made up of folded, 1/8” thick steel!!
Now that is what I call a rugged switch housing.
You make some excellent points, Norman.
Are you still seeing an accelerating descent into tyranny and war ahead or a financial coronary in the David Korowicz mould?
Krugman sees tyranny. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/opinion/wisconsin-primary-democracy.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
even krugman sees the future as i do (and he got a nobel prize for economics)
I wrote the initial reply to this thread, along those lines
both, I’d say.
Though I dearly want to be wrong.
So far I haven’t been, other than in the details. That scares me. At least I’m not a solitary voice in that.
I say ‘both’ because we are collectively cursed with denial of reality.
If I buy a house for 250k, take out a mortgage for 225k, then the housing market crashes and my house is now worth 100k, I cannot think of my house as worth anything other than 250k, because thats what I paid for it
Unfortunately the lender still wants his 225k, but Its only ‘worth’ 100k
I am thus denying reality because my life depends on fantasy, especially if i lose my job/income and need to sell the house. I face destitution, homelesness and maybe even starvation.
I see queues at foodstores, and a government who will let me starve, if I’m in USA and other places.
You can scale my ‘denial’ up to national level without difficulty
Now think back to Germany on the early 30s, Russia before that, and France in the 1780s
The common factor there? Denial of reality.
each nation was in a state of energy deficit relative to the demands of its people. In each case the result was insurrection and descent into tyranny, but the outcomes were different of course, though there were similarities to where we are now
In france, Napoleon arose and invaded other territories to keep the system afloat,but had to sell his part of America to finance his wars
Germany had to invade the rest of Europe.. Russia tyrannised its own people and carved up Poland
The situation now is that if the current commercial system goes down, leaders will arise as tyrants to keep ‘law and order’ (which is what Hit her said he was doing)
Not necessarily the Don, but he might be needed as a dumb figurehead. Unfortunately the only place left to invade and loot is the USA itself.
Which explains Bezos and the rest.
And explains the poverty and destitution and wealth disparity and crap schools and healthcare and failing infrastructure.
The money has been looted, and was going on long before the don appeared.
Because people are in denial, they will loot each other’s territories to gain advantage where possible, not realising they are destroying what’s left.
So the mob still screams ’ no socialism’ as they chant their way to their own gallows of poverty. Still believing the fantasy of wealth for all. Much like sending $1000 to preachers as prayer seed, who grab what money they can from the gullible.
Fantasy trumps reality every time. Until reality smacks you in the face.
Like now..
We want to believe that our house is worth what we paid for it, 9over the past 70 yeaqrs or so) and will do anything to sustain that belief.
But infinite value requires infinite energy input. Which is the one thing we don’t have. (along with economists/politicians who understand that.)
Along the lines of Norman’s wise comment, the tax valuations in my small, out-of-the-way, town are delusional in kind. Many empty storefronts sit for years, not selling at asking prices which are 1/2 of what the town’s assessment is. My house is valued at more than $30k over what I paid for it, but I’m afraid to grieve it (ask for a re-assessment) out of fear they will just increase the assessment further.
When I spoke in March at our town meeting, questioning a doubling of the “recreation” budget and a doubling of the fire budget, I got the stink-eye, and a round of applause from people who seem to want to keep growing the town budget to enjoy more “goodies”. But the do-gooders who vote all these expenditures are well-off, relatively speaking. They don’t understand people are not going to be able to pay going forward! I spoke about being in an era of de-growth, but it just does not compute to them.
Speaking again of these USian townspeople.. here in the land of Bernie, they love the idea of socialism: that there’s some cornucopia of “Other People’s Money” that can be tapped ad infinitum to give them stuff that they want.
What is coming upon us cannot be remedied by socialism, though. What is coming upon us is going to sweep away egalitarian fantasies and bring us to hard arrangements based on merit/ocracy (if we are lucky) or sovereign natural right (might makes right). All the social gains which are pure luxuries borne of an era of surplus energy are going to be up for grabs.
Look at Europe, where indigenous women are told to stay indoors and to dress modestly, while migrant rapists get off with a few months or walk away from court completely.. society has “understood” (at some lizard-brain level) that it is too expensive to challenge threats to its values, so its values simply won’t exist going forward.
Norman, when it comes to bricks and mortar, the actual reality is that if you buy it, you own it, period. The delusion comes from regarding the variable valuation placed on houses by the market as the house’s actual value.
My house was built around a converted cowshed that was originally designed to accommodate three heifers. I’ve greatly expanded it over the years, and as an Englishman, I see it as my castle, but it’s market value is far less than the amount I invested in it. Indeed, nobody but a fellow eccentric would consider buying it for even a tenth of what it cost me in money, let alone blood, sweat an tears. To teh average estate agent, the place is close to valueless, but to me it is priceless.
https://inspirationboost.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Oscar-Wilde-Famous-Quotes.jpg
I can only admire and congratulate you on what you’ve done in respect to your own housing situation
however, I did imagine it to be obvious that my remarks were intended to cover the vast majority of ‘average’ house buyers and occupiers, using ‘average’ mortgages or whatever.
Most of the nonsense I write, is slanted in that direction. One cannot write a concise, (hopefully meaningful to the majority) piece in this forum, keep it as short as possible, and then start adding caveats at the end with exceptions for self builders, people who elect to live in tree houses, caves or log cabins in the woods somewhere
If someone else writes something that doesn’t apply to me, I ‘self exclude’ on it. I don’t need to make the point that I am somehow ‘different’.
Thanks Norman. But George Orwell was raging on about the insanity of getting caught up in the housing chain back in the 1930s. If I remember correctly, he thought that mortgages and life insurance were the two biggest cons being perpetrated on the poorer classes in those days—although he was a bit of a contrarian.
But in many countries people have been encouraged to think of homes as an investment that will continue to appreciate in value and an enormous amount of equity is tied up in them. A lot of people see home ownership as representing money in the bank, but the fact is that on market a house or flat is only worth as much as the next buyer is prepared to pay for it.
Japan is unusual in this respect. For many Japanese, buying a new house is akin to buying a consumer durable like a car or a washing machine. The monetary value of the thing is guaranteed to depreciate from the moment you sign the contract. And the houses are often built to last only 30 years before being demolished and replaced. A market in older higher-quality houses exists but it is relatively small. Hence, buying or building a house is not usually seen as a financial investment that will turn a profit but rather as a means of achieving independent ownership and avoiding having to pay rent.
The catch is that once our current system is lost, we do not have another system to replace it. It will gradually (or not so gradually) devolve to lower and lower levels, until something “works.” That something could be different in different parts of the world. It could be hunter-gathering. Perhaps it could use some existing elements that we have today that have not deteriorated yet, for a while.
It’s a very strange situation. To step down into a system that isn’t catastrophically different from what we have now, we have (I think) stop producing new new things, while treating our current new things like museum objects, safeguarding their supply chain as much as possible. The problem I see is when people, for whatever reason, condemn and strive to replace this, that or the other for spurious ideas of progress or betterment. We might never get anything better (in terms of new) than what we have now.
I have a hard time imagining a return to hunter-gathering other than for offside places.
With farming out of the box it won’t go back. To tempting creating surplus and dominating others.
Some of us women would disagree with respect to a hairdresser not creating GDP. Women like to have a hairdresser cut their hair in a suitable style. If their hair is gray, they would like some approach used to cover the gray.
I suppose we could also argue whether a trip to watch a ball game adds to GDP, as well.
It is perhaps a question of what is of value to a particular person. Are pixels on a screen of value?
i used ‘hairdressing’ as a typical example
as i see it, if you pass money to a hairdresser, you pass your energy tokens over in exchange for a service. I could have equally used a ball game, or a theatre ticket.
those tokens get passed on in transaction for another service, in another business, and so on. (the hairdresser then goes to the theatre or ball game.)
Each transaction is recorded on the national accounting/tax system or whatever, and so adds to the total ‘GDP’. Gross Domestic Product
But nothing has been ‘produced’ there has only been a ‘transaction’ no matter how much cash changes hands, or how often
Cash gets passed around like a game of economic musical chairs.
My point being, that to keep it going, fresh prime energy must be pumped into the system. That prime energy must be cheap, and surplus.
In our terms that means coal oil and gas.
When that cheap surplus energy is readily available, you can build theatres, ball parks or fancy hairdressing salons. Or anything else.
When it isn’t, you can’t.
A prime example would be Las Vegas.
Without the prime energy output of the Hoover Dam, no amount of ‘spending’ would have created it out of the desert in the first place. Much too hostile.
The Hoover dam was the prime energy pump.
Now the city runs under a momentum of ‘money input/energy tokens’ brought in from the rest of the country. Correct me if I’m wrong, but its prime function seems to be entertainment. (which adds to GDP of course)
Cash passes from one hand to another. Nothing or relatively little, is ‘produced’
But the virus has cut its jugular. So I assume its stopped ‘working’?
Prime energy producers in the main seem to be farmers, and other raw energy producers. Everyone else is totally dependent on their output
Right! And the prime energy producers, including the farmers, are generally not getting enough to cover their labor and their other expenses, including what they need to pay on their mortgages. Food prices, like energy prices, tend to be low.
This is along the lines of that reckoning of Charles Hall’s: that to engage in transactions beyond a pure survival level, a society needs EROEI ratios upwards of 10:1 for a industrial civilization of some kind, and on the order of 16:1 if we want nice things like theaters and symphonies.
I haven’t had a haircut since I got married in the year 2000. I’ve saved oodles. Most ladies in my area are borderline hippies, content with the “crone” look. I’ve told friends that, if I were dictator during this downturn, I’d be a kinder, gentler, Pol Pot, and one of the first superfluous things I’d get rid of would be stuff like nail polish and hair dye. (People do like to embellish themselves, though.. some ladies in Africa style their hair with cow dung, certainly a low-cost and low-tech approach.)
People could still do each other’s hair on a non-commercial basis. This is something Ivan Illich and Charles Eisenstein explored: Illich with his idea of “disempowering professions”, and Eisenstein talking about the monetization of things people used to do for each other for free (child care and elder care are the biggest that come to mind, but also now we have homemaking skills, food preparation, etc.). Psychiatrists, psychologists, counsellors.. those are basically paid friends. There are plenty of “jobs” that really don’t need doing, and we’re about to find out what those are. Sadly, some of the most perfidious jobs will likely persist for a while. I don’t see Fauci going anywhere.
That is a good point about what is happening now matching up with Charles Hall’s view that the kinds of businesses we can have depends on the average EROEI of the energy resources we have. Cutting out a lot of things we can get along without allows the economy to limp along a little longer, using energy resources of lower EROEI.
The thing that brings the system down is the fact that low EROEI energy resources are high cost to extract. But what citizens can afford to pay for finished goods is low. Much of what the cost of oil normally goes for is taxes, to pay for things like schools, Social Security, Medicare and other services. At a low price, government services need to disappear as well. This tells us part of what may be ahead without enough energy for superfluous things.
the overall problem is, i think, that the prime energy producers have delivered energy to us much more cheaply than it should have been.
this seems to have derived from ‘cheap surplus’, mainly of fossil fuels.
drill a hole in the ground—and by magic,the majority of humankind, alone of every species that has ever existed, doesn’t have to work to live, by virtue of what gushes out of that hole.
It gave us the tractor that could produce 100x more food than the horse. plus everything else.
We no longer had to strive to survive, so we had the spare capacity to create all the other ‘jobs’ on the back of our food/energy surpluses. (hairdressers, ball players, actors) More of us now live in cities than elsewhere.
in survival terms, it seemed to offer the ultimate in benefit.
but in reality , it was the exact opposite, because it blew our numbers way beyond what could be supported once the bounty no longer flowed for us
but along with our food growth, the surplus allowed us to support priests and politicians who told us what we wanted to hear: That the new way of living was forever, because we had somehow ‘earned’ it. Or our gods had granted it as a favour.
When of course we had done nothing of the sort. It has all been nature’s bait of excess , to lead us into the trap of extinction.
We began to call ourselves ‘top predator’, which was the ultimate joke, because we are not. Microbial life forms run this place, not us. But this is anathema to our species. So you get screaming nutcases saying otherwise.
The result of our excess living has been disease. (too many, too close)
Sounds crazy I know, but I’m coming to the conclusion that the Earth itself is an intelligent entity. All other life forms communicate. Why shouldn’t microbial life do that? Theyv’e been around for billions of years longer than we have.
It is we who are wrecking their environment after all. Annoyance isn’t exclusive to us.
What quicker way to kill off an infestation than to use the same means by which that same infestation has spread itself? Think about that. We use the same method outselves, when undertaking pest control.
Our lives are now so complex that we cannot absorb the current shock of plague impact as we used to. This latest epidemic has only had to kill off a few thousand of us, so that the rest of us are so frightened we jump off an economic cliff.
That stops the complex pollution systems that are destroying the planet, ruining the lives of all other animals who love here—-and all in a matter of days.
Look up, your skies are now clear, ready for the sun to exercise its coup de grace and see off our food supplies.
if that’s not ‘intellect’ on a level we have no understanding of, it comes very close to it.
One can still find time for verse though;
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/enough-is-enough-9e39be0d816a
Some would say a trip to the hairdresser COULD be an investment.
We forget how important China is for demand for imports of seafood and other foods. I know that they buy nuts from my state of Georgia, as well, for example. All of these things add up.
The coronavirus pandemic will trigger the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
“The bleak outlook applies to advanced and developing economies alike. This crisis knows no boundaries. Everybody hurts,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday…”
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/09/imf-coronavirus-pandemic-will-cause-worst-economic-slump-since-great-depression
So, allowing for the likelihood of some scattered inflationary supply-shocks and the possibility that currencies in some parts of the world weaken sufficiently to cause inflation even in spite of very low oil prices, this is broadly the situation we are entering now:
https://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/DeflationarySpiral.png
The trillion dollar question is – can the governments and central banks halt the cycle with various kinds of “printed” money and, if so, for how long? We need a poll. 😀
15 may
I guess I should add that, this is not your usual deflationary spiral, as obviously *some* demand returns once the lockdowns end – but the psychology of contraction has already set in with rapidly rising unemployment and everyone fearing for their jobs and/or their health.
Marco, is 15th May when you see the lockdown ending in Italy or global financial calamity?
Calamity Will be 15 May to 31 i dont know
The Euro will collapse in April…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVN_RYfU4AAkCtK?format=jpg&name=large
Where is war in the circle?
That does seems to be a popular accompaniment to “not enough demand.” Hire a lot of young people with borrowed money, and that by itself will inject some demand into the economy. If it is possible to take resources from someone else, so much the better.
I’m thinking a return to 70s style stagflation?
“Stagflation, or recession-inflation, is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high.”
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/06/15/08/29A0011D00000578-3124079-These_men_already_know_for_whom_the_bells_toll_them_Bell_bottoms-a-2_1434354842403.jpg
Groovy baby!
Wow!
Not many American guys can fit into those pants these days.
Butts and tummies have expanded considerably.
https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/21a97b3ef5f92a95268cc8f77862ffe5.jpg
back in the 1970s, I owned a pair of those striped bellbottoms…
Yep…
Couldn’t other people see this problem?
“Ministers were last night urged to put more pressure on banks to offer emergency loans, as an official poll revealed just four in ten [UK] firms are confident of surviving the Covid-19 crisis.”
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8206073/Now-60-firms-uncertain-theyll-survive-pandemic.html
“An emergency funding scheme set up by the chancellor to funnel interest-free loans to small businesses has triggered a further flashpoint over banks’ rejection of funding applications by companies with private equity backers.”
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-banks-in-fresh-clash-over-sunaks-flagship-sme-loan-scheme-11971275
“We are about to see a massive wave of shale oil bankruptcies by thieving executives who have borrowed against assets and paid themselves bonuses for years without regard to shareholder value.
“That will not be the worst insult. Most of the companies will not liquidate in bankruptcy. The majority will come out of bankruptcy with new shareholders led by major debt holders, private equity and the executives themselves.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336930-shale-oils-final-theft-from-shareholders
“Major U.S. lenders are preparing to become operators of oil and gas fields across the country for the first time in a generation to avoid losses on loans to energy companies that may go bankrupt, sources aware of the plans told Reuters.
“JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc are each in the process of setting up independent companies to own oil and gas assets, said three people who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. ”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-energy-assets-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-banks-prepare-to-seize-energy-assets-as-shale-boom-goes-bust-idUKKCN21R3JI
Thanks for these two posts on the NA alt oils situation.
It has been minor voice even here, and elsewhere, that they will continue operating (!not vanishing just to please instadoomers!) only under different ownership and partially updated management..
Some vanishing is arguably preferable, given the over-supply situation.
So now it is the banks who will buy the oil and gas fields. Hope springs eternal that prices will rise. If prices would rise, it would prevent a big loss by banks.
and the pensions that hold oil company debt? NOT. Fed will buy it all!
There will be someone who will be willing to buy the assets, but not at their current valuation. According to the article, the value of the (shale) total assets, as stated by the oil companies, is supposedly $4.17 trillion, now. This is supposedly the value of future oil extraction. It is unlikely to ever happen.