The world’s number one problem today is that the world’s population is too large for its resource base. Some people have called this situation overshoot. The world economy is ripe for a major change, such as the current pandemic, to bring the situation into balance. The change doesn’t necessarily come from the coronavirus itself. Instead, it is likely to come from the whole chain reaction that has been started by the coronavirus and the response of governments around the world to the coronavirus.
Let me explain more about what is happening.
[1] The world economy is reaching Limits to Growth, as described in the book with a similar title.
One way of seeing the predicament we are in is the modeling of resource consumption and population growth described in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows et al. Its base scenario seems to suggest that the world will reach limits about now. Chart 1 shows the base forecast from that book, together with a line I added giving my impression of where the economy really was in 2019, relative to resource availability.
Figure 1. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil,” with dotted line added corresponding to where the world economy seems to be in 2019.
In 2019, the world economy seemed to be very close to starting a downhill trajectory. Now, it appears to me that we have reached the turning point and are on our way down. The pandemic is the catalyst for this change to a downward trend. It certainly is not the whole cause of the change. If the underlying dynamics had not been in place, the impact of the virus would likely have been much less.
The 1972 model leaves out two important parts of the economy that probably make the downhill trajectory steeper than shown in Figure 1. First, the model leaves out debt and, in fact, the whole financial system. After the 2008 crisis, many people strongly suspected that the financial system would play an important role as we reach the limits of a finite world because debt defaults are likely to disturb the worldwide financial system.
The model also leaves out humans’ continual battle with pathogens. The problem with pathogens becomes greater as world population becomes denser, facilitating transmission. The problem also becomes greater as a larger share of the population becomes more susceptible, either because they are elderly or because they have underlying health conditions that have been hidden by an increasingly complex and expensive medical system.
As a result, we cannot really believe the part of Figure 1 that is after 2020. The future downslopes of population, industrial production per capita, and food per capita all seem likely to be steeper than shown on the chart because both the debt and pathogen problems are likely to increase the speed at which the economy declines.
[2] It is far more than the population that has overshot limits.
The issue isn’t simply that there are too many people relative to resources. The world seems to have
- Too many shopping malls and stores
- Too many businesses of all kinds, with many not very profitable for their owners
- Governments with too extensive programs, which taxpayers cannot really afford
- Too much debt
- An unaffordable amount of pension promises
- Too low interest rates
- Too many people with low wages or no wages at all
- Too expensive a healthcare system
- Too expensive an educational system
The world economy needs to shrink back in many ways at once, simultaneously, to manage within its resource limits. It is not clear how much of an economy (or multiple smaller economies) will be left after this shrinkage occurs.
[3] The economy is in many ways like the human body. In physics terms, both are dissipative structures. They are both self-organizing systems powered by energy (food for humans; a mixture of energy products including oil, coal, natural gas, burned biomass and electricity for the economy).
The human body will try to fix minor problems. For example, if someone’s hand is cut, blood will tend to clot to prevent too much blood loss, and skin will tend to grow to substitute for the missing skin. Similarly, if businesses in an area disappear because of a tornado, the prior owners will either tend to rebuild them or new businesses will tend to come in to replace them, as long as adequate resources are available.
In both systems, there is a point beyond which problems cannot be fixed, however. We know that many people die in car accidents if injuries are too serious, for example. Similarly, the world economy may “collapse” if conditions deviate too far from what is necessary for economic growth to continue. In fact, at this point, the world economy may be so close to the edge with respect to resources, particularly energy resources, that even a minor pandemic could push the world economy into a permanent cycle of contraction.
[4] World governments are in a poor position to fix the current resource and pandemic crisis.
In our networked economy, too low a resource base relative to population manifests itself in a strange way: It appears as an affordability crisis that leads to very low prices for oil. It also appears as terribly low prices for many other commodities, including copper, lithium, coal and even wholesale electricity. These low prices occur because too large a share of the population cannot afford finished goods, such as cars and homes, made with these commodities. Recent shutdowns have suddenly increased the number of people with low income or no income, pushing commodity prices even lower.
If resources were more plentiful and very inexpensive to produce, as they were 50 or 70 years ago, wages of workers could be much higher, relative to the cost of resources. Factory workers would be able to afford to buy vehicles, for example, and thus help keep the demand for automobiles up. If we look more deeply into this, we find that energy resources of many kinds (fossil fuel energy, nuclear energy, burned biomass and other renewable energy) must be extraordinarily cheap and abundant to keep the system growing. Without “surplus energy” from many sources, which grows with population, the whole system tends to collapse.
World governments cannot print resources. What they can print is debt. Debt can be viewed as a promise of future goods and services, whether or not it is reasonable to believe that these future goods and services will actually materialize, given resource constraints.
We are finding that using shutdowns to solve COVID-19 problems causes a huge amount of economic damage. The cost of mitigating this damage seems to be unreasonably high. For example, in the United States, antibody studies suggest that roughly 5% of the population has been infected with COVID-19. The total number of deaths associated with this 5% infection level is perhaps 100,000, assuming that reported deaths to date (about 80,000) need to be increased somewhat, to match the approximately 5% of the population that has, knowingly or unknowingly, already experienced the infection.
If we estimate that the mean number of years of life lost is 13 years per person, then the total years of life lost would be about 1,300,000. If we estimate that the US treasury needed to borrow $3 trillion dollars to mitigate this damage, the cost per year of life lost is $3 trillion divided by 1.3 million, or $2.3 million per year of life lost. This amount is utterly absurd.
This approach is clearly not something the United States can scale up, as the share of the population affected by COVID-19 relentlessly rises from 5% to something like 70% or 80%, in the absence of a vaccine. We have no choice but to use a different approach.
[5] COVID-19 would have the least impact on the world economy if people could pay little attention to the pandemic and just “let it run.” Of course, even without mitigation attempts, COVID-19 might bring the world economy down, given the distressed level of today’s economy and the shutdowns experienced to date.
Shutting down an economy has a huge adverse impact on that economy because quite a few workers who are in good health are no longer able to make goods and services. As a result, they have no wages, so their “demand” goes way down. If the economy was already having an affordability crisis for goods made with commodities, shutting down the economy tends to greatly add to the affordability crisis. Prices of commodities tend to fall even lower than they were before the crisis.
Back in 1957-1958, the Asian pandemic, which also started in China, hit the world. The number of deaths was up in the range of the current pandemic, relative to population. The estimated worldwide death rate was 0.67%. This is not too dissimilar from a death rate of 0.61% for COVID-19, which can be calculated using my estimate above (100,000 deaths relative to 5% of the US population of 33o million).
Virtually nothing was shut down in the US for the 1957-58 pandemic. When doctors or nurses became sick themselves, wards were simply closed. Would-be patients were told to stay at home and take aspirin, unless a severe case developed. With this approach, the US still faced a short recession, but the economy was soon growing again. Populations seemed to reach herd immunity quite quickly.
If the world could somehow have adopted a similar approach this time, there still would have been some adverse impact on the economy. A small percentage of the population would have died. Some businesses might have needed to be closed for a short time when too many workers were out sick. But the huge burden of job loss by a substantial share of the economy could have been avoided. The economy would have had at least a small chance of rebounding quickly.
[6] The virus that causes COVID-19 looks a great deal like a laboratory cross between SARS and HIV, making the likelihood of a quick vaccine low.
In fact, Professor Luc Montagnier, co-discoverer of the AIDS virus and winner of a Nobel Prize in Medicine, claims that the new coronavirus is the result of an attempt to manufacture a vaccine against the AIDS virus. He believes that the accidental release of this virus is what is causing today’s pandemic.
If COVID-19 were simply another influenza virus, similar to many we have seen, then getting a vaccine that would work passably well would be a relatively easy exercise. At least one of the vaccine trials that have been started could be reasonably expected to work, and a solution would not be far away.
Unfortunately, SARS and HIV are fairly different from influenza viruses. We have never found a vaccine for either one. If a person has had SARS once, and is later exposed to a slightly mutated version of SARS, the symptoms of the second infection seem to be worse than the first. This characteristic interferes with finding a suitable vaccine. We don’t know whether the virus causing COVID-19 will have a similar characteristic.
We know that scientists from a number of countries have been working on so-called “gain of function” experiments with viruses. These very risky experiments are aimed at making viruses either more virulent, or more transmissible, or both. In fact, experiments were going on in Wuhan, in two different laboratories, with viruses that seem to be not too different from the virus causing COVID-19.
We don’t know for certain whether there was an accident that caused the release of one of these gain of function viruses in Wuhan. We do know, however, that China has been doing a lot of cover-up activity to deter others from finding out what actually happened in Wuhan.
We also know that Dr. Fauci, a well-known COVID-19 advisor, had his hand in this Chinese research activity. Fauci’s organization, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, provided partial funding for the gain of function experiments on bat coronaviruses in Wuhan. While the intent of the experiments seems to have been for the good of mankind, it would seem that Dr. Fauci’s judgment erred in the direction of allowing too much risk for the world’s population.
[7] We are probably kidding ourselves about ever being able to contain the virus that causes COVID-19.
We are gradually learning that the virus causing COVID-19 is easily spread, even by people who do not show any symptoms of the disease. The virus can spread long distances through the air. Tests to see if people are ill tend to produce a lot of false negatives; because of this, it is close to impossible to know whether a particular person has the illness or not.
China is finding that it cannot really contain the virus that causes COVID-19. A recent South China Morning Post article indicates that roughly 14 million people are to be tested in the Wuhan area in the next ten days to try to control a new outbreak of the virus.
It is becoming clear, as well, that even within China, the lockdowns have had a very negative impact on the economy. The Wall Street Journal reports, China Economic Data Indicate V-Shaped Recovery Is Unlikely. Supply chains were broken; wholesale commodity prices (excluding food) have tended to fall. Joblessness is increasingly a problem.
[8] If we look at deaths per million by country, it is difficult to see that lockdowns are very helpful in reducing the spread of disease. Masks seem to be more beneficial.
If we compare death rates for mask-wearing East Asian countries to death rates elsewhere, we see that death rates in mask-wearing East Asian countries are dramatically lower.
Figure 2. Death rates per million population of selected countries with long-term exposure to the virus causing COVID-19, based on Johns Hopkins death data as of May 11, 2020.
Looking at the chart, a person almost wonders whether lockdowns are a response to requests from citizens to “do something” in response to an already evident surge in cases. The countries known for their severe lockdowns are at the top of the chart, not the bottom.
In fact, a preprint academic paper by Thomas Meunier is titled, “Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.” The abstract says, “Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, or reproduction number trends. . . We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.”
It appears to me that lockdowns have been popular with governments around the world for a whole host of reasons that have little to do with the spread of COVID-19:
- Lockdowns give an excuse for closing borders to visitors and goods from outside. This was a direction in which many countries were already headed, in an attempt to raise the wages of local workers.
- Lockdowns can be used to hide the fact that factories need to be closed because of breaks in supply lines elsewhere in the world.
- Many countries have been faced with governmental protests because of low wages compared to the prices of basic services. Lockdowns tend to keep protesters inside.
- Lockdowns give the appearance of protecting the elderly. Since there are many elderly voters, politicians need to court these voters.
[9] A person wonders whether Dr. Fauci and members of the World Health Organization are influenced by the wishes of vaccine and big pharmaceutical companies.
The recommendation to try to “flatten the curve” is, in part, an attempt to give vaccine and pharmaceutical makers more time to work on their products. Is this really the best recommendation? Perhaps I am being overly suspicious, but we recently have been dealing with an opioid epidemic which was encouraged by manufacturers of Oxycontin and other opioids. We don’t need another similar experience, this time sponsored by vaccine and other pharmaceutical makers.
The temptation of researchers is to choose solutions that would be best from the point of their own business interests. If a researcher gets much of his funding from vaccine and big pharmaceutical interests, the temptation will be to “push” solutions that are beneficial to these interests. In some cases, researchers are able to patent approaches, even when the research is paid for by governmental grants. In this case they can directly benefit from a new vaccine or drug.
When potential solutions are discussed by Dr. Fauci and the World Health Organization, no one brings up improving people’s immunity so that they can better fight off the novel coronavirus. Few bring up masks. Instead, we keep being warned about “opening up too soon.” In a way, this sounds like, “Please leave us lots of customers who might be willing to pay a high price for our vaccine.”
[10] One way the combination of (a) the activity of the virus and (b) our responses to the virus may play out is as a slow-motion, controlled demolition of the world economy.
I think of what we are experiencing as being somewhat similar to a toggle bolt going around and around, moving down a screw. As the toggle bolt moves around, I picture it as being similar to the virus and our responses to the viruses hitting different parts of the world economy.
Figure 3. Image of how the author sees COVID-19 as being able to hit the economy multiple times, in multiple ways, as its impact keeps impacting different parts of the world.
If we look back, the virus and reactions to the virus first hit China. China’s recovery is moving slowly, in part because of reduced demand from outside of China now that the virus is hitting other parts of the world. In fact, additional layoffs occurred after Chinese shutdowns ended, because it then became clear that some employers needed to permanently scale back operations to meet the new lower demand for their product.
Commodity prices, including oil prices, are now depressed because of low demand around the world. These low prices can be expected to gradually lead to closures of wells and mines extracting these commodities. Processing centers will also close, making these commodities less available even if demand temporarily rises.
As one country is hit by illnesses and/or shutdowns, we can expect supply lines for manufacturing around the world to be disrupted. This will lead to yet more business closures, some of them permanent. Debt defaults tend to happen as businesses close and layoffs occur.
With all of the layoffs, governments will find that their tax collections are lower. The resulting governmental funding issues can be expected to lead to new rounds of layoffs.
Natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, earthquakes and forest fires can be expected to continue to happen. Social distancing requirements, inadequate tax revenue and broken supply lines will make mitigation of all of these disasters more difficult. Electrical lines that fall down may stay down permanently; bridges that are damaged may never be repaired.
Initially, rich countries can be expected to try to help as many laid-off workers as possible with loans and temporary stipends. But, after a few months, even with this approach, many individual citizens and businesses will likely not be able to pay their rent. Default rates on home mortgages and auto loans can be expected to rise for a similar reason.
We can expect to see round after round of business failures and layoffs of employees. Financial systems will become more and more stressed. Pensions are likely to default. Death rates will rise, in part from epidemics of various kinds and in part from growing problems with starvation. In fact, in some poor countries, lower-income citizens are already having difficulty being able to afford adequate food. Eventually we can expect collapsing governments (similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union) and overthrown governments.
Longer-term, after this demolition ends, there may be some surviving pieces of economies. These new economies will be much smaller and less dependent upon each other, however. Currencies are likely to be less interchangeable. The remaining people will need to learn to make do with many fewer goods than are available today. It will be a very different world.
In Sha Tin, protesters taped posters with her face on glass windows, one reading “Happy birthday and go to hell soon” and another “Because of you, many didn’t have a happy Mother’s Day.”
China’s Hong Kong affairs office warned last week that the city would never be calm unless “black-clad violent protesters” were all removed, describing them as a “political virus” that seeks independence from Beijing.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/ignoring-social-distancing-protesters-mock-hong-kong-leader-lam-on-her-birthday-idUSKBN22P1YF
Time to take the violence to another level? I quite like how in some countries they set tyres on fire — that creates a nice Dystopian ambiance… much easier to set the entire car on fire … and fun as well.
It is hard to see why anyone would want this position.
The salary is nice — around USD800k/yr….
However there are HK people all around the world who hate her — so this is what awaits her if the world does not collapse before she ends her term … she’ll need bodyguards forever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ejszqGuYLI
If she ever made it to QT thinking she could have a quiet coffee at the end of the world — she better hope I don’t spot her….. it wouldn’t be quiet for long….
This is not good enough. I urge everyone to help reach 5000…
Harry – we need more grim headlines!!!!
4,539 Responses to COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?
Melinda for POTUS 2024!
If the US is still holding elections by then.
Bill will buy her the presidency as an anniversary present.
Remember where you heard it first.
Imagine this scene with balloons!
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y3su6L3kriRgThKuQ0rETGbBMLs=/0x0:3000×2003/1200×800/filters:focal(1178×121:1658×601)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/66295518/958624450.jpg.0.jpg
Oooh… matching outfits!
sorry but King Trump will use the virus as an excuse to postpone the election “temporarily”
I sincerely hope he uses this to declare himself emperor… of course he would be no such thing since he is just an errand boy for the owners of the Fed….. but I do so enjoy hearing the precious NYT crowd squeal….
In terms of preference… I’d like to see an Uncontrolled Collapse… why? because the people with the guns would get a shot and hunting down the libtards … anyone with a NYT subscription should be top of The List.
Trump wanted to “reopen” the USA on Sunday April 12th…
(which by the way, would have been a really good thing, but that’s another topic)…
even now, he wants the 50 governors to reopen their states full speed ahead…
that is totally inconsistent with the idea of postponing the November election…
also, Trump seems to love a good fight, and seems to enjoy “winning”, so the election is almost certain to happen…
i would suggest that excess deaths is too far forward and should be brought back 20 years. many deaths will be in the next 10 years as the world systems collapse. oil has put the human race at least 6.8 billion people over what is sustainable on our planet without it.
yes, the LTG model has population increasing up to about 2050…
Gail has correctly stated that we cannot trust the model beyond 2020…
the world population has been increasing by about 200,000 per day (!) recently, but it looks likely that the death rate will surge in 2020 and 2021 with much more poverty and its accompanying disease and starvation…
perhaps the economy could stabilize at a much lower level, and food production/distribution could remain adequate to feed a growing population for 3 more decades…
but models are just models… within the next year or so, we should begin to see what the poverty/disease/starvation is going to do to population increase or decrease…
The world was headed towards a massive overshoot and overpopulation disaster even prior to the widespread use of fossil fuels. Consider the way that the Bushmen hunter gatherers lived in balance (without fatal overshoot) for thousands of years in South Africa until the Hottentot pastoralists arrived and pushed them aside about 1000 years ago. Then the Europeans arrived around 1500 and added their pastoralist pressure, pushing aside the Hottentots.
And then the Bantu – again pastoralists – came down from the north in large numbers and the result was some really huge disruptions, population displacements, genocides and so on. One example was the Mantatee Horde, a landless horde of around 50,000 people who in 1823 spilled across the land, taking land from their neighbors, who thereupon attacked their neighbors and so on in society-smashing dynamic. And then of course there was the rise of Shaka Zulu in the 1820s in Zululand. That took out two million people in about ten years. Of ourse there was the trek of the Boers. And there were the British- Zulu wars of the 1870s.
These were all population/resource clashes that were not fed by fossil fuels. Rather, they were related to changing over to using land pastorally instead of in a hunter gatherer economy.
We can point to lots of other similar examples around the world (the Europeans arriving in the New World, especially with the horse). So I think that we would have ended up in a die-off situation with fossil fuels or without. It would have been much much slower of course. Fossil fuels have permitted an overshoot ledge that is beyond the worst nightmares of even Wiley Coyote.
The Khoisan Once Were Kings Of The Planet. What Happened?
How did it happen that a group that was once in the majority is now so small?
First of all, the fact that 7 billion people now live on earth makes it almost impossible for us to understand how few people lived in the past. About 10,000 years ago, there were not more than 1 million on the planet. And 100,000 years ago, only a few 10,000s. The whole genome sequences we analyzed show that there was a time when the non-Khoisan peoples were not doing as well as the Khoisans.
What happened to tip the balance?
Changes in the kkkkl….ima…te.
Before 22,000 years ago, the southern part of Africa where the Khoisan lived was wetter, with more precipitation, compared to the dryer western and central parts of the continent where other groups lived.
A dryer ckkklliimmmmate meant fewer wild game and less food, which translates into fewer children. So other populations dropped significantly while the Khosian’s population stayed about the same. But after the last ice age ended, the kkklllllimate changed, and for reasons we don’t understand the other African populations expanded, and the exponential growth of humans across the earth began.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2014/12/22/371672272/the-khoisan-once-were-kings-of-the-planet-what-happened
Apparently the Hottentots burned a lot of coal to power their electric appliances … they also had electric cars that were charged using coal generated electricity… that caused the cllymit to change and decimated their civilization …
Let this be a warning to all of us … if we burn too much coal to power our civilization the same thing might happen.
OMG
The authors of Limits to Growth have themselves said that the model is not to be trusted, after the collapse begins. There were too many variables that they had not modeled; there were too many things that might act differently after collapse.
I believe that there may be a bit of this disclaimer in the book itself. I know that statements to this effect have been made in public since the book was published.
Well isn’t that special.
https://twitter.com/AlisonKosik/status/1260332268314398724
the reset is taking shape…
it’s a bit surprising that lots of Americans are seeing the correct response… save money, spend on essentials…
this will be a supply/demand signal that businesses that are not essential will be discarded by the reset economy, and spending on essentials will be a supply/demand signal that should help essential businesses and industries to stay open…
all of this is necessary in a world where net (surplus) energy is decreasing and the remaining energy is needed for essential industries…
it was the somewhat unexpected catalyst of the (mild) pandemic and the (stooooopid) reactions/lockdowns that have moved the economy in this direction, but it would have been necessary anyway at some point in the 2020s, but it’s just happening much faster with that catalyst…
True, it had to happen; but this is the Express form, which will result in simply unmanageable mass unemployment and hence inconceivable levels of poverty, crime and despair.
Even if some form of UBI is conjured up, people will lack all sense of identity, purpose and worth when their inessential activity disappears.
Governments will raise taxes in an attempt to make up budget shortfalls, and drive everyone even deeper into the ground as they have always done in times of decline.
Frankly, I’m all for as many inessential businesses as possible for as long as it can be managed.
Saving money will tend to pop the debt bubble I expect. If people decide to delay buying a new car or a new dress, it tends to shrink the world economy a bit.
Thank you, Gail, for another excellent summary of our predicament. It is a privilege to be able to read a chronicler of our collapse as rigorous and balanced as you. I have to say meeting OFW was the best thing that has happened to me since … ever? If someone asked me about my alma mater, I would have to answer: i’m a graduate from Our Finite World University, Atlanta. Thanks!
Thanks for the compliment. There is a niche of people who appreciate what I write; quite a few people find it too difficult or too depressing or too abstract.
Funny thing is kids almost never get seriously ill or die from the flu (Covid) yet…
Hong Kong students will have to wear masks while singing during music lessons and maintain social distancing during ball games when they begin to head back to classrooms at the end of the month, according to government guidelines to reduce the risk of coronavirus infection.
The suggestions, which were released on Wednesday, also ask students to keep at least a metre apart in classrooms, when lining up for the toilet or waiting at the tuck shop.
Some schools the Post talked to said they would request that students remain in the classroom during recess and take turns going to the toilet in small groups.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education/article/3084267/masks-while-singing-no-basketball-and-recess-inside-hong
Kinda like how kids learn to blue box stuff (they are Nazi’s about that…) even though most of the stuff ends up in a river in the Philippines or burned in some gangster’s back yard because it cannot be recycled…
And the little trolls come home and pressure their parents on all this crap.
Hong Kong is another high population density area. Therefore, resources per capita are low. It is also sort of a barometer for how China is doing economically (not very well). No wonder it has problems, even with a low incidence of COVID-19.
Experts urge calm, say days ahead critical after new virus cases in Hong Kong
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3084283/coronavirus-hong-kong-health-experts-doubt-new
Create uncertainty… provoke fear ….
If viruses were little blue dots, you wouldn’t be able to see anything – everything would be blue in all directions. If you clean all the surfaces with disinfectant, they will be blue again within a few hours as the viruses in the air die off. If you are breathing, the air behind your mask will be chock full of viruses. There is no way to escape them.
We have always lived with viruses by evolving natural immunity, and regular exposure to those viruses is important. Attacking viruses will reduce your exposure and therefore your immunity. This might be OK in the short term (a few hours, during a pandemic), but is detrimental in the long term.
Governments that don’t do anything for their people (Brazil etc) won’t do any lock-downs, the outcome in the long term will be the same.
Gail does a perfect job of putting things in the Limits To Growth scenario. Could be shorter and more incisive.
Almost the only factor which one can have some control over is one’s own state of health and fitness, which might mean that exposure and contact won’t necessarily turn to the dangerous form of the infection.
Really the term ‘safe’ needs to be binned, it’s a delusion.
I saw one article that showed that even a person’s own viruses tend to accumulate on the outside of masks. Viruses are on both sides of the mask.
Authorities don’t realize that when they start messing with natural systems, there are likely to be multiple impacts. Spraying disinfectant all over won’t necessarily be helpful, for example. Helping people with their own natural immunity is the one thing that might be helpful. But world ecosystems still cannot support so many people.
After thinking much about it, I have doubts that this is a “controlled” demolition. The main reason why I feel it is not a “controlled” demolition but just demolition is because practically all politicians and bureaucrats are
1. Totally not smart or aware
2. Naive and ignorant
3. Extremely strong normalcy bias and felt that this issue can be easily tackled
4. Incompetent
5. Advised by people who have no idea how the mainstream works (like a career politician)
6. Could not care less about the normal people because they are the privileged
I have serious doubts that they know the predicament we are in (economy, energy, etc). They are also elements of power grab (i.e. I take this opportunity to increase my police state powers, surveillance, etc) while totally ignoring the main street people.
When it started in China, I certainly believed that due to the fact that the lower ranked people hid information from the top, it burst out to the open and they took drastic actions without thinking of the consequences. With social media, everyone can see what happened there and this caused people worldwide to be afraid of this unknown virus. Then Italy came in and they did not lockdown until it is really serious. Taking a page from China, the easiest way a politician can do is “follow precedent” and imposed lockdown. So, all other countries will say “Hey, look we followed what others are doing”.
In some countries, surveillance and police state powers expanded. Some do not. It is not happening in all countries.
In a nutshell, I don’t think the politicians really know what is happening at the “bottom part” of the country and I think they are not interested, thinking that it will blow away (this rhymes with history by the way). They may get advice from other countries or certain people/organization who have certain for profit agenda (pharma?) and to a politician, it is better to do a “tried and tested way” rather than a new way so that they don’t get blamed. The side effect is a “dead economy”.
No, I don’t think the el.ders or leader are aware of this and are doing it in a controlled manner. It is a “do whatever comes” type. With Stockholm Syndrome coming into play, I am interested to see how this entire “nightmare” play out.
With a very high EROEI like 100:1, we can afford to have 30% unemployment. Unfortunately, the distorting being done socially, economically and politically, I am hard press to see how this entire episode will end with a fairy tale of “happily ever after”
Good points, CTG.
I think the control of the demolition comes from the laws of physics, rather than from the intelligence of politicians or any type of conspiracy.
There is a constant battle between (a) using the resources that are available and (b) protecting vulnerable people from disease. Which side wins depends on resources per capita, to a significant extent.
The Democratic states (mostly along the coasts) have lots of people, relative to resources. This is also true for Europe. The balance in these states tends to head in the direction of “protecting the people.” Academia also tends to head in this direction.
Republican states have relatively more resources compared to population. Georgia is a Republican state. Atlanta is an inland city; other cities are small in comparison. The state tends to be rural. There is a lot of agriculture and forests.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/poulation-density-by-state-2013-wikipedia.png
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I posted this already, I think, but if nothing else it makes clear, within the first 10 minutes, that the top politicians are doing as they are told. The one exception that springs to mind is Putin.
Global Health Mafia Protection Racket
All perfectly correct: ‘controlled demolition’ is utter nonsense.
Most of the major actprs in this – and I would include the general public – have no understanding that a global economy cannot be ‘paused’, to be re-started later, which is what in effect they have tried to do, as a side-effect of the lock-downs.
But side-effects as we know from many drugs, can be as lethal as any disease and have longer-term consequences even when they aren’t fatal.
CTG – and a ‘world-ending’ virus just happening to strike just as the global economy was about to collapse…really????
1. It never was more dangerous than the flu – which in a good year kills 650k (keep in mind most of the deaths being reported re Covid were not Covid — someone somewhere is pressuring doctors to call them Covid…. and there are plenty of virologists stating the whole thing is a charade… so who’s organizing this charade?
2. What are the odds of a ‘world ending’ virus hitting at this point in time? Just as all the data points had been heading deeply south for months — the Red Queen had caught up to shale … autos… German industrials… China…. throw in the riots — they were getting completely out of control….. remember the Polytech scenes in HK – that was all out war…. And then – Covid….
It is very obviously a plan.
It is completely naive to think that politicians and bureaucrats run the world… they are errand boys… the men who run the world are the men who control the USD. Plain and simple.
They can shift a country’s interest rate higher with a simple command and drive that country into total destitution – if that country does not cooperate … that is more powerful than any bomb.
I am a pipsqueak — yet I was been threatened by one of their minions… because they did not like that published something that portrayed their homeland in a negative light. That they’d even bother with me is in itself an indication of how powerful they are.
This is the final trick the Fed and their franchise central banks have up their sleeves. It is the nuclear option. The global economy will stagger on awhile longer…. but very obviously the intention is to create fear and to isolate people in their homes.
How anyone cannot see that is beyond me.
You will know the end of the plan is near when you are coerced into your home — and threatened by police/soldiers if you dare to leave. It’s already happening. The Philippines indicates they will remain locked down until a vaccine is available. California is staying the course until the end of the year… how many thousands have been hit with major fines in Spain?
You will be locked down and you will starve.
When that happens — surely you will be thinking … hmmmm….. Fast Eddy was right… (it won’t be a lucky guess…)
But then Fast Eddy is the only one with the 700IQ… and the knowledge base to completely understand this…. that is because FE does not need money — FE does not actually work — (well maybe an hour in total per day…) — FE is laser focused on understanding…. FE is a modern day Stoic …. if there was anything after this collapse (there will not be) they’d be carving statues of FE out of solid gold….
https://dailystoic.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/epictetus.jpg
Global economy already set for historic contraction
Apr 12, 2020 – Tiger index suggested collapse in activity before the height of the … the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index.
CTG,
I think it would be flattering ourselves to believe that top leaders in politics, business or the army do not understand what any reader of OFW (should) understand: the dynamics of our global economy, the risk of breaking the suplly chains, the cascading effect of a global lockdown and its irreversibility. There’s thousands of people in the world who understand that. After all, is not rocket science.
I don’t buy the idea that top leaders are naive, incompetent or ignorant. They have the best and higher-paid advisors, and i believe all their decisions are based on the best data available. You don’t run a big corporation, a big bank or an empire by newspaper or television headlines, but by reliable data. MSM is of course mere smoke curtains to blind the plebs.
So, if they decreed quarantine and lockdown, i believe they did it with full awareness that this would cause a cascading failure and an irreversible collapse of our economy. I can’t see any other possibility. I have a hard time believing that OFW readers are the only knowledgeable people in the world.
Also, I see too much coordination and unanimity in the global reaction to the virus. Since the begining, this felt too much staged, too much rehearsed, as if they were all reading from a script. I reminds me the way on the very morning of the 911 Event all the talking heads suddenly started repeating, ou of the blue “Alqaida-Lin Baden-Alquaida-Lin Baden”, entities that few people had heard of the day before, and who were suddenly all the talk of he town. Today the battery of memes is “quarantine”, “lockdown”, “vaccines”, “save the NHS”, “covidiots”, “flatening the curve”, etc.
Another very obvious thing is the intention to scare the population, instill terror, to make it believe that there was no other way to fight the virus but through confinement and quarantine. There’s no other way to explain all the ridiculous paraphernalia of toxic-lab suits in the news, the headlines about covid in pets, headlines like: “woman died with covid after being spit in the face by an infected person”, and the sudden repressive legislation everywhere, the speed with which MSM and social media is censoring all opinions that do not follow WHO guidelines (something that you never saw in re all the other consp.racy theories). The pressure to follow the line is amazing: politics, doctors, journalists etc, that don’t follow it are instantly vilified and ridiculed and hushed everywhere. And that unanimity in MSM always makes me suspicious.
To me is more than obvious that we are being played, that we are undergoing a massive campaign of PR, and a kind of social engineering experiment. IOW, that this is not a spontaneous event, but a guided one. The intention would be to prevent a disorderly collapse, to manage the inevitable decline, to try a phased collapse. Or maybe implement a new totalitarian order to subdue the masses, to prevent riots and popular rebelion.
Just had a technician here to quote on installing an anti-horde driveway gate (with machine gun turrets)… and we were discussing the SITUATION in QT… blah blah… then I dropped the ‘I saw that the numbers for Australia vs NZ covid were pretty much the same even though they didn’t lock down’…….
SCREEECH…… see facial expression — does NOT like that… change course…. maybe we could have gone to L2 directly a couple of weeks ago … difficult job Ardern has… blah blah…
This is really close to living in 1984… nobody will kill you for questioning the Party Line… but you pretty much have to assume everyone agrees with the lockdowns … and that if you even hint that things could have been handled differently… you are basically supporting murder of everyone including their children and their elderly (KFC Big Gulp Crowd) who are riddled with disease (and being kept alive with my tax dollars).
We are .. almost here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvGmOZ5T6_Y
Yeah, I agree how this whole thing is playing out like a George Orwell novel. The fear, panic and hysteria that’s been artificially created by the Media, W.H.O., CDC and Government politicians has setup the masses/plebs to allow forced vaccinations and monitoring.
The following is from “Limits To Growth” p50, accompanying the graph drawn on that page.
It is very relevant to the current situation and the future…..
“Figure 10 also illustrates some very important general facts
about exponential growth within a limited space. First, it
shows how one can move within a very few years from a
situation of great abundance to one of great scarcity. There
has been an overwhelming excess of potentially arable land
for all of history, and now, within 30 years (or about one
population doubling time), there may be a sudden and serious
shortage. Like the owner of the lily pond in our example in
chapter I, the human race may have very little time to react
to a crisis resulting from exponential growth in a finite space.”
That last part about “the human race may have very little time to react to a crisis resulting from exponential growth in a finite space”, is the most relevant to today.
We were already reaching all types of limits, leaving ourselves open to a myriad of problems. The problem is not ‘lockdown’ nor Coronavirus, it the limits which the world has forgotten about. We already had plenty of evidence of pestilence acting on our fabricated world, from Swine Fever in pigs, to honey bees dying from disease and pesticides, to Chestnut trees dying, to Stem Rust fungus in Wheat, to locust plagues in Africa etc. Our fabricated world was coll.apsing around us, yet we continued on with our ‘party’ of modern civilization.
Along came the catalyst that sent us over the edge. It is indeed as Gail puts it a predicament, yet our collective inability to see reality, has markets rising for the recovery, and people blaming everyone else, whether it be those that introduced ‘lockdowns’ or some great cons.piracy or whatever else the imagination thinks of.
The problem was us, our collective hubris. We can’t blame others as we continue to try and live a modern lifestyle in a world where limits have been reached….
well said…
we have passed another limit, and it is just as real though somewhat hidden in the process of resource extraction, and that is the increase in net (surplus) energy, which was the driver of economic expansion throughout the past few centuries, but is now a decrease and thus is somewhat the root of the economic problems…
thus, as Gail concludes:
“Longer-term, after this demolition ends, there may be some surviving pieces of economies. These new economies will be much smaller and less dependent upon each other, however.”
our “modern lifestyles” at a minimum are being downsized and perhaps will be mostly gone…
the economy will be discarding every unaffordable subsystem, or at least shrinking them to minimal size, and straining groaning striving stumbling trying to hold onto the essential subsystems…
through 2020 and into 2021, this will be the pattern…
this is the big picture…
I am afraid we can blame the way dissipative structures and the way that they work, rather than human greed. Economies have particular needs, and one of them is growth. There really is no way that the world economy can shrink back, without collapsing. The debt bubble that holds up this economy is trying to collapse, and governments around the world are trying to maintain it as best as they can, with their own debt/promises.
The big question is, “What comes after?” We don’t really know. We know that if there still is energy to dissipate, it is likely that some dissipative structures will arise to use it. We really don’t know if these will be human economies, however. I have assumed that they might be human economies.
a dissipative economy is our way of producing wages
we dissipate the energy in meat by eating it—we pay wages to the butcher for his service to us in providing it in easy packages. (we do not have to slaughter the cow)
Somebody else has paid a wage to us to enable purchase of the meat.
Without some kind of money or exchange mechanism, energy can only be obtained and consumed by our own physical effort—ie a 1:1 energy system, the hunter gatherer existence which by definition cannot take itself into surplus or excess consumption—ie a low rate of dissipation with no ‘growth’ at all
Except even the hunter-gatherers burned biomass to help their fight against other species. The cooked part of their food. They burned down whole forests, so that game would be easier to catch and they would grow back perhaps less dense, giving more of the plants they wanted.
So humans have never lived on a 1:1 energy system. Perhaps you were thinking about chimpanzees.
during the time period that human-type species have existed (maybe defined by fire and tool making), their overall numbers didn’t increase much
which would suggest that the ability to kill off other species did not, over the long term, increase their energy ratio significantly much above 1:1
As an example, the australian aborigine seems to have killed off the megafauna there, but they still lived a stone age existence; once the large animals/energy resource had gone, they didn’t possess the means to fill up the entire Australian landmass, or even the habitable part.
Energy seemed to get dissipated through cultivation/trading of various kinds
The people of North Sentinel Island don’t use fire. They’ve lived there for 60,000 years without destroying their environment. So it is possible for humans to exist at zero growth in a steady state economy with zero supplemental energy.
Different types of economies need different rates of growth, however. China needs 9% growth every year to avoid collapse. 6% is catastrophic for them. If you have two economies with the same level of consumption, population and resources, and one needs 2% growth and the other 9%, by the time the first has doubled once, the Chinese economy would already be consuming ten times as much as the first just to survive!
This is actually true…
I don’t know anyone who is not greedy… if anyone on here disagrees then ask for a salary reduction …. or donate 20% of your income to educate kids in the third world…
Putting your spare coins at the checkout is not enough….
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-muxDdmu2HV0/Veh-_HUu5zI/AAAAAAAAMEc/ao_4GX3A-XM/s640/Gordon%2BGekko%2BWall%2BStreet%2BMovie%2BGreed%2BIs%2BGood%2BSpeech%2BFrugal%2BBusiness%2BQuote%2BMike%2BSchiemer.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/9/8246/8491125952_c2c7c854d8.jpg
This particular distinction was featured front and center in the latest CivicScience survey, which found that 69% of respondents would not resume all normal activities after states lift stay-at-home orders, while nearly a third of Americans, or 31%, would remain under quarantine even if local governments issued a notice to go back to normal day-to-day activities in order to prevent an economic collapse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/third-americans-will-remain-quarantine-even-if-instructed-get-back-normal-life-and-work
More Siren!
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/31%25%20americans%20would%20not%20go%20back%20to%20normal.jpg
Yes I am pissed it will have to be a really good singer for me to go out.
I could go for Japanese as that is far different than all the soggy reheated Italian takeout I have had.
As per the CDP… they don’t even have to keep the full lockdowns on … just drip feed The Siren and some grim made up numbers …
Do you think UD would be better?? (replace controlled with uncontrolled, there is no ‘plan’)
spot on…
the so-called leaders of countries are not systems thinkers…
they are stumbling and bumbling… making it up as they go along…
as the economic damage begins to dawn on them, there are now various forms of reopening being tossed about…
they are also stumbling and bumbling through these reopening plans…
perhaps these efforts will result in a slowdown of the decline process…
perhaps enough to keep this auto wreck from killing IC… I think the patient will survive, but it’s going to be a close call…
As mentioned yes. Anything that results in chaos and suffering is karmic… given what humans have done to other species…. just so long as I am exempt from the suffering (Pez Fenties?).
We missed our chance though… it’s lockdowns to the end… with most people being ok with that. Of course they don’t know that the plan is to starve them…. and even if they did they still might be mostly ok with that… better to starve than to die from covid (SDR)
Let me qualify a little – whilst it is population, it is actually (as Ehrlich & Ehrlich put it) I=PAT, impact equals population x affluence x technology. So the death of one American reduces the environmental impact on the world much more than the death of one Egyptian (as written above). So Trump’s actions to increase/allow Covid-19 USA deaths is a good thing for the world (to be cynical, but accurate). If you’re interested, a reasonable approximation of the AT in the equation (≈standard of living) the ecological footprint (www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/ecological-footprint). The top 10 worst environmental impact (EI) nations, in order, are (with % of world Env. Impact): China (25%), USA (13%), India (8%), Russian Federation (4%), Brazil (3%), Japan (3%), Indonesia (2%), Germany (2%), Mexico (2%), Rep. of Korea (1%) for a total of 62%. Top 20 = nearly 75%. So, logically, should we organise to have these countries let the virus go rampant? Although, if we look at individual EI, the top 10 are, in order: Qatar, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Australia, Estonia, Norway, Uruguay, Trinidad & Tobago and Kuwait. But “allowing all these people to die” would only bring down the total global environmental impact by 3.1% (2016 data). FYI, the “sustainable” population of the world (living within nature’s capacity), all living at the standard of living (AT) of Australians/Americans would be 1–2 billion. But at standard of living (AT) of, say, Afghanistan it would be about 25–28 billion. Another “interesting” fact, for China’s current population to reach the current Australian standard of living (AT/individual eco-footprint) would require 3+ planet earths. So, that will never happen (hence one of the underlying reasons for China/America conflict; access to resources). Within all these numbers are the reasons for many of our geopolitical problems and conflicts. Any livestock farmer knows you can’t exceed your carrying capacity for long before bankruptcy arrives. Rant endeth here.
Thanks but you forgot that we need fully functional BAU to make sure all the oil-derived fertilizers and pesticides are available to grow the food to feed all these people. There’s more to it than that but this should be enough to
https://baseberry.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/tenor.gif
Good input for us to consider Mr. Jeeves. Thank you.
This assumes that deaths from COVID-19 will be enough to reduce (or slow the growth of) the US population. But most of those deaths are old and/or sick people, not breeders. The economy ought to have more of an effect, as fewer immigrants arrive and some people have fewer children. At bottom, it’s a function of food supply–which, ironically, you can reduce by consuming more!
I have had some problem I = P x A x T ever since I figured out that humans were outcompeting other species more than 1 million years ago, when they first learned to cook biomass for food. They were able to burn down whole forests, in order to make food more accessible. They were able to change local climates.
Also, your carrying capacity figures assume that fossil fuel extraction will continue. Without higher prices, it is difficult for this to happen. If humans have to live within limitations of current forests, degraded topsoils, and fished out oceans, the carrying capacity is a whole lot less than your numbers assume.
Oil prices will go up, one way or another. If the Saudis don’t cut production, Trump will pull their protection and they will get invaded or regime changed and production will fall. I think we may get some thing more authoritative than OPEC as a result of this, with much tighter controls on supply and pricing for oil.
No airline can survive a 90% drop in flights, But those with a lot of debt accumulated in the high oil price period have even more problems
3 May 2020
How the first phase of peak oil brought Virgin Australia into minus after 2008
http://crudeoilpeak.info/how-the-first-phase-of-peak-oil-brought-virgin-australia-into-minus-after-2008
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EX4sPe7WsAUUvNS?format=jpg&name=small
A State government offer of $200 million is peanuts compared to the debt of $ 7 bn
Queensland Government moves to buy stake in coronavirus-hit Virgin Australia
13 May 2020
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-13/coronavirus-queensland-government-stake-virgin-airlines/12244152
Thanks! Australia desperately needs people to be able to fly there because it really is not a self-sustaining entity on its own. A local airline is helpful in this regard. No wonder they are bailing out the airline! If only part of the seats can be filled, the airline can’t make money.
A Third Of Americans Will Remain In Quarantine Even If Instructed To Get Back To Normal Life And Work
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/third-americans-will-remain-quarantine-even-if-instructed-get-back-normal-life-and-work
Our gym is opening on Monday… it is now necessary to book in advance for the less than half the usual spots for group fitness classes…. (distancing issues…). I suspect there will be temperature checks and endless sanitizing… That puts me off the whole thing…
I can imagine I will be put off with a lot of things under L2… we are having beers with a few neighbours at the pub tonight… wonder how busy that will be…
The ice rink in town is debating on whether or not they will open this season… with no tourists they will lose most of their public skating revenue…. the local NZIHL team will not play because fans would not be allowed (big revenue stream gone)…. sponsorships will likely vapourize as companies have been destroyed by the lockdown
Meanwhile my daily check on homes for rent shows that we have lifted off from the usual 170 and now have 176 on the market… usually there would be maybe a dozen long term rentals
https://www.realestate.co.nz/residential/rental?by=featured&lct=d300&ql=20
And with half the place on benefits — those empty homes are going to stay empty….
Elaine Cheung, who runs Elaine Beauty House not far from the central finance district, recently reopened her beauty salon after a 28-day compulsory shutdown to contain the virus. She is racing to make the most of pent-up demand, while it lasts.
“My WhatsApp just kept popping up messages from clients. I’m rushing to serve as many customers as possible when the situation is relatively safe,” she said.
“Who knows what will happen next?”
Bar owner Max Traverse has had to reduce staff. A rental discount has helped tide him over. Conditions had been improving earlier this year before the virus hit yet now, like others, he’s worried what will happen if either the protests or another virus outbreak returns.
“If the city has to close again, it would be a ghost city,” he said.
That concern is widespread across the bar and restaurant sector. Alan Lo, co-founder of the Classified Group of eateries as well as the Michelin-starred restaurant Duddell’s, said the political logjam could be a blow that shrinks the city’s food and beverage industry, with owners “down to their last drop of capital.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/hong-kong-s-economic-crisis-just-keeps-getting-worse?srnd=premium-asia
This is the Purchasing Managers’ Index for Hong Kong. Hong Kong was tending to shrink even before all of this happened. It is less bad now than it was at the worst, but it is still terrible. No wonder there are protests.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/hong-kongs-dismal-pmi-bloomberg.png
Our experience in Australia flies in the face of everything you’ve said. It’s NOT whether there was a lock down but WHEN the lockdown started relative to how much the virus was already established in the population. Many countries locked down after the virus was taking off to control the virus and slowed the spread hugely. Other countries, like America appear to care about the economy more than people and their eventual death numbers are potentially huge. The virus is very communicable and the extent of contact with infected people is the driver for new cases. In Australia we have very low numbers now (we locked down early) but there are clusters still happening where infected people are in close contact. Why not use data from expert virologists and epidemiologists rather than the unsubstantiated opinions of an insurance risk analyst. It is more likely that it is the limits-to-growth/overshoot as is mentioned that is the driver of our problems. Covid-19 and climate change (in a fossil-fueled world), are natural consequences of overpopulation.
incompetence, not greed, is the problem in USA. They only started cleaning the subway cars in New York City a week ago. https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/05/mta-subway-daily-overnight-closures-to-disinfect
How long are you willing to remain locked-down, though? Because if even just one person ever remains with the Wuhan-Covid in Australia at any future point, we’re back to square one. Please review the interesting shift in mainstream instruction: first, we were supposed to “flatten the curve”, with the assumption being X number of people would get the virus and become ill, and they wanted X to be spread out over (say) six months rather than one or two. NOW, the message is “wait for a vaccine”. News flash: there never will be a vaccine at all (my feeling), or there’ll not be a vaccine within any time frame which is reasonable to allow for the normal functioning of the modern economy.
A “victory” of quashing the virus early would seem to be pyrrhic.
“[W]hat people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.
You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.
Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
We’ve had zero new cases in a week where I am. So, the idea that it is impossible for people to stop spreading the virus, is incorrect. I think it boils down to the mix of population in your area. Where I am, the conspiracy minded people are more terrified of 5G and vaccines, there doesn’t seem to be any people claiming the virus is totally a hoax.
Except you really don’t know if there are zero new cases, because not all cases have any outward signs. And wherever you live your country needs to trade with some other areas. This constantly brings in new exposures from cargo trucks, boats or planes. There is really no permanent way out.
There is no reason people need to come with goods. Just set up a no mans land where trucks disconnect their trailers, so no infected come into the safe areas. As each area becomes virus free, it can reintegrate with the open safe zone. Some day they have to come up with a reliable means of testing. Even with the incredible lack of competence, they must after some number of months be able to catch up with China.
We know there are zero confirmed cases. Of course you can’t know how many not confirmed cases there are. Perhaps the South Korean panopticon is the best solution, where they identified and tracked down and tested every single person that went to any gay bar and put them all under quarantine and notified everyone who they were and where they live. Maybe Big Brother can save us.
In order to be infected by an asymptomatic carrier, you need to be breathing the same air as them quite closely for quite a bit of time. That time goes down a lot with talking, and even more with singing. If both parties wear a mask, that time greatly increases.
Andrew, I fear the “eventual” death numbers will be the same regardless of any lockdown. That is the way pandemics work, as Lotka and Volterra showed over a century ago. Is it worth delaying say 500,000 deaths (population of Australia * 2%) if the price is throwing millions into poverty and destroying much of the economy that helps keep them alive? But politicians make terrible systems thinkers.
From the Italian experience, this is incorrect. When the hospital system is overwhelmed and they have to choose who receives treatment, far more people die both from the virus and from any other injury or illness.
Trying to maintain “maximum safe burn” to have as many people ill as possible without exceeding hospital capacity, seems like a rather precarious tightrope to walk.
This is fine.
https://twitter.com/rrpre/status/1260687566849875973
If your kid or your grandma leaks bodily fluids all over your car, are you going to throw your car away? Please. This is just clickbait.
Same person who came up with that is behind the Siren.
you meant to say “our precious bodily fluids…”–gen. Jack D. Riper, Dr. Strangelove.
Purity of Essence! Peace on Earth! Kaboom! One of the best movies of its time.
You open with “The world’s number one problem today is that the world’s population is too large for its resource base.” But your section [1] immediately clarifies that consumption levels are also important. If it were just population, then the problem could be addressed by culling a bunch of poor people. In fact, one American is worth about 20 Egyptians, consumption-wise.
We don’t know how the self-organizing system will decide to make the situation work out. Probably, there won’t be much population left from either rich or poor countries. All of the population and consumption is very high, compared to 10,000 years ago or 50,000 years ago.
This is my concern too. It gets me every time you mention new cars. I see new cars as grossly over expensive in terms of planetary resources. Talking about new cars is, de facto, advocating for what gets us too many people with too few resources. New cars (for the average person) is not at all the downscaled future you also say (and I agree) is the likely future. I think it would be just as economically viable to repair the old cars and try to make them run like new. And urban places, where most people live, need to be reconfigured for far less commuting anyhow.
Coronavirus may never go away: WHO
“We have a new virus entering the human population for the first time and therefore it is very hard to predict when we will prevail over it,” said Michael Ryan, the WHO’s emergencies director.
“This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away,” he told a virtual press conference in Geneva.
“HIV has not gone away — but we have come to terms with the virus.”
More than half of humanity has been put under some form of lockdown since the coronavirus crisis began.
But the WHO warned there was no way to guarantee that easing the restrictions would not trigger a second wave of infections.
“Many countries would like to get out of the different measures,” said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
“But our recommendation is still the alert at any country should be at the highest level possible.”
‘Long way to go’
Ryan added that there was a “long, long way to go” on the path to returning to normal, insisting that countries would have to stay the course.
“There is some magical thinking going on that lockdowns work perfectly and that unlocking lockdowns will go great. Both are fraught with dangers,” the Irish epidemiologist said.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/05/14/20/coronavirus-may-never-go-away-who?fbclid=IwAR2S88WakmCNr7Mw9jx1k8xVlGRJwNNxtsnXuwX5eIR6xkqvIJruOMXwMsw
So this is what life is going to look like — up until collapse.
Scan the headlines… endless warnings about second waves…. restrictions will loosen — infections will rise — restrictions will be tightened…. it’s a game of dishing out a little hopium then snatching it back…. ratcheting up the fear…
Hong Kong is considering extending school closures because ONE kid has Wuhan.
https://www.scmp.com/yp/discover/news/article/3084215/new-covid-19-infections-hong-kong-may-delay-plans-resume-classes
New coronavirus clusters have appeared as nations struggle to balance reopening economies with preventing a second wave of infections and deaths.
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3084087/coronavirus-latest-top-us-expert-warns-lockdown
I suspect there is no plan and no one in charge, and this is actually just the result of general incompetence.
Yes, I think you have got it in one. Occam’s Razor is that this is just the catalyst to a coll.apse.
Those that want to call it ‘controlled demolition’, the real question is whether controlled is better or worse than ‘uncontrolled demolition’, that is happening.
There is no plan and those in charge are winging it, basically clutching at straws, no matter what the cons.spiracy theorists think and pollute threads with.
No nobody is in charge… it’s even worse than the movie I d i ocracy envisioned… there’s not even someone to suggest watering the crops
Right?
SDR
Of course “it won’t go away” and that is the plan, really. Just keep stoking the fear, panic and hysteria until Bill and Melinda Gates arrive with their rushed to market Covid 19 vaccine which won’t do jack sh*t. If anything it could do more HARM than GOOD. That’s what the MSM and the Politicians are peddling.
Bill and his vaccine are yet another distraction …
PR101 — drop all sorts of Con Theeries into the marketplace and get the sheeple nattering about them….
One epidemiologist I spoke to suggested that big pharma might be behind this … I pointed out that even if they made 50B …. it would be hard to imagine the MSM, govts and other businesses… going along with such a scam…
The problem with these guys is they know something is wrong — but they cannot think big… CDP would be totally beyond their relatively feeble PHD level IQs.
They cannot absorb that even if FE explains it to them
E>M>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>P (FE)
It’s only mid May yet schools will remain closed until December…. the lockdowns will continue until…
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – California’s state university system, the largest in the United States, canceled classes on Tuesday for the fall semester because of the coronavirus, while Los Angeles County said its stay-at-home order was likely to be extended by three months.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/california-cancels-fall-university-classes-as-fauci-warns-of-reopening-too-soon-idUSKBN22O1Y7
The number of students filling out the government form required to apply for financial aide to attend college is down by 5% this year. It seems likely enrollment will be down as well.
https://www.educationdive.com/news/fafsa-renewals-down-year-over-year-adding-more-uncertainty-for-fall/577807/
Maybe this is a message…. do not waste your time studying… there is no future.
Actually … even if this was not The End… it would be pointless to study… with employment rates of 25% or higher… there will be a deluge of highly qualified experienced people out of jobs… so it will be very difficult for a college grad to compete for the few jobs out there.. you’d need to be very special – and be willing to work for minimum wage (or less)…
It will be difficult for MBA to even get a pizza boy job…
Better to steal cash from mummy’s wallet and get on the Fenties.
Especially in the US, where H1-B visa holders are preferred to citizens or permanent residents (personal experience). We really have to re-acquire the sight picture. “Nation-states” are no longer interesting in quaintly protecting “citizens”, and this will not redress itself within our lifetimes, I don’t think.
My sister was scanning the local classifieds on behalf of my teen nephew: she saw an ad for a driver of the Oscar-Meyer Weinermobile. <bThe job required a college degree.
From Sheep…
In 1965 a group of psychologists studying conditioning in dogs stumbled across what they were to call “learned helplessness.” In their experiment, they took a puppy and put it in a cage. Once the puppy got used to his surroundings, the experimenters rang a bell. So the puppy thinks to himself, “Hey, I wonder what that is?” But the puppy doesn’t know what to do, so he stays where he is. Then the experimenters give him an electric shock and the puppy thinks, “Ouch, what did you do that for?”
This happens a couple of times until the puppy notices that there is a big green button at the end of the cage. So the puppy thinks, “Maybe if I press the button I won’t get an electric shock.” And so next time the bell rings, the puppy runs to the end of the cage and presses the button. Not only does he not get a shock, he gets rewarded with a food treat.
So the puppy thinks, “Okay, I get the game now. If the bell rings and I don’t press the bell I get a shock, but if I press the green button in time I don’t get a shock and I get a reward.” And so the game goes on until, Pavlovian-style, the puppy internalises the game and it becomes unconscious habit.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/05/11/lockdown-learned-helplessness/
Mostly correct – however I disagree with the herd immunity assertion … that is clearly not the plan based on the info that has emerged in the past month or so…
This is almost certainly about confusing the sheep — taking their eyes off the wolves that are about to come through the gate… making them want to stay home… and then starving them… (although I still remain hopeful of the Fenty Delivery Package)
I am a curious person so… wow – maybe a submarine pilot degree would be more appropriate?
http://www.adweek.com/files/news_article/wienermobile-mountain-hed-2014.jpg
The college degree requirement simply indicates that the applicant has been subjected to mental conditioning to believe what they are told. They will obediently drive the wiener mobile and appreciate how their college training benefitted them.
Guy approaches girl in bar… hi … hi… can I guy you a drink… sure… so what do you do… girl says – I’m in med school… and you… guy says oh I just graduated and I drive the wiener mobile…
Girl finished drink – says nice to meet you — I gotta catch up with friends at a vaping party.
Soon,Asian looking H1B people will be lynched. Just shout ‘covid!’ and they are dead.
‘The pandemic is the catalyst for this change to a downward trend.’
1. What are the odds that a ‘global killed pandemic’ would hit — just as the world economy was (according to the FT Brooks index) about to experience a collapse on a scale similar to WW2 https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c
2. There is loads of evidence that indicates this is not a ‘killer pandemic’ and that there was and is no need to lockdown the global economy. Lockdowns have zero impact on the spread of this flu.
3. Places such as Sweden and Brazil have not been overwhelmed when they do not lockdown. Then we have leaders telling us this war – but not recommending masks – when the CDC site specifically states face coverings prevent you from contract Covid.
4. Then we have the Nobel guy stating this virus is man-made. I am thinking that the virus was manufactured to ensure that hot weather does not kill it easily … given most flu viruses tend to circulate during colder periods.
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21170.jpeg
Covid is definitely a catalyst. And it was not a naturally occurring phenomenon. It was purposely created – and released.
I think there is very minimal doubt about that.
Sweden is a special case, with over 50% of the population living alone. The buildings there seem pretty short and spread out. They do have several times the deaths per capita as their Scandinavian neighbours.
Every country has different standards for testing COVID or counting a death as COVID. Comparing excess deaths compared to previous years average seems a better method, just keep in mind some of the excess deaths are due to fear or cancelled surgeries.
Also, some of those countries are a few weeks behind in their outbreaks. Looking at excess deaths X days after 100 deaths or 500 cases or something like that gives a better picture. Just wait a month, Brazil and India will have some really big numbers.
Some countries, such as Iran and China, may be suppressing their numbers. Meanwhile, for financial reasons, some places like USA might be exaggerating the numbers. Hospitals are going broke from lack of regular operations, but they get a bunch of extra money for COVID and more if ventilated.
OH gawd…. more normies…… posting more regurgitated MSM BS…. yes Matthew — whatever you read on CNN the BBC and the NYT … is the truth.
eeeawwweeeawwwweeeawwww
“but they get a bunch of extra money for COVID and more if ventilated.”
That is hilarious….97% of patients with Covid placed on ventilators die. So they are being paid to kill people!
Most are extremely elderly with co-morbidity conditions anyway….with one foot already in the grave.
You didn’t mention an over expensive military or that most of the gains of the last 30 years have gone to the 1%. That may explain why wages haven’t grown. I think we should all make some popcorn while we watch the show.
When there is not enough to go around, wage disparity tends to grow. A major reason is that we tend to use more technology when there is not enough to go around. Then the wealth that is created goes to the owner of the new devices and well as to the management of the company and a few highly paid people, many of whom have advanced degrees. There is virtually nothing left for those at the bottom of the pyramid. This is why technology doesn’t really save us.
The military represents a way to give jobs to some of the many who have been cut out of other jobs by the huge amount of technology in place. They could also be checking for guns in airports, or trying to trace COVID-19 contacts. None of these things has very much real benefit, but the activities give people jobs.
Armies everywhere mostly employ the lowest social class in very large numbers – quite beneficial when industries have vanished.
Where’s Sweden on this?????
Where is Bali?????
Where is Ethiopia????
And I thought Iran was hell on earth — doesn’t seem so bad????
And then there is Brazil — Bolsonaro has been smashed in the MSM for not locking down….
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21170.jpeg
https://www.statista.com/chart/21170/coronavirus-death-rate-worldwide/
Any normies feeling a bit like you been played???
Nah…. question nothing is your motto right?
That ‘Death rates per million population’ chart doesn’t prove what you say it does. The high death rates were arguably caused by delayed shutdowns, whereas timely shutdowns, along with other measures, have effectively controlled the virus in other countries, at least temporarily.
Japan is right next to China. Its low infection rate is amazing to me. It is still fairly open. It state of emergency is not really a shutdown.
Any control of the virus, anywhere, is temporary. As long as there are well hosts to infect, it will keep spreading.
Temporarily indeed.
More on the mask thing (that Ardern says is a bad idea)
The CDC Recommends Face Coverings to Prevent the Spread of COVID
In light of new data about how COVID-19 spreads, along with evidence of widespread COVID-19 illness in communities across the country, CDC recommends that people wear a cloth face covering to cover their nose and mouth in the community setting. This is to protect people around you if you are infected but do not have symptoms.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-faq.html
Odd….
Yeah, so the cloth mask does not protect you from getting infected, but may help protect others from being infected by you. The virus can get in through the eyes, or from contaminated food or drink, probably.
It may also spread by farts, so if an infected were to fart in the produce aisle, they may infect hundreds more. Should probably require everyone to wear rain pants in public, just to be safe.
Australian Infectious Disease Physician and Microbiologist Peter Collignon (advisor to the Aussie govt) told me over the phone that cloth masks are an excellent barrier that prevent you from touching your mouth and nose and contracting Covid.
He actually spent 15 minutes explaining how great cloth masks are — he also said he suggested keeping 2 or 3 with you and changing them as necessary — then washing them…
But when I asked him if he was advising the Aussie government to recommend face coverings… he shut me down. He also refused to respond to this on a follow up email.
AHMEDABAD, India (AFP) – Indian authorities used drones and fire engines to disinfect the pandemic-hit city of Ahmedabad on Saturday, as virus cases surged and police clashed with migrant workers protesting against a reinforced lockdown.
Locals watched from their balconies as drones sprayed disinfectant from the air while fire engines and other vehicles toured the empty streets sending out clouds of cleaning agent.
“All zones” of the city would be disinfected, according to acting chief administrator Rajiv Gupta.
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50721840/india-uses-drones-to-disinfect-virus-hotspot-as-cases-surge/
I wouldn’t have thought hosing down streets would have much of an effect on a virus… do people lick the streets in India… normally?
Does spraying poison all over the city have any effect on the humans?
Who cares – they will all be dead shortly… the goal is to get them good with locking down and not rioting… and eating each other….
It will be more difficult to achieve that goal in 3rd world countries…. so they are going to pay a heavy price when BAU goes dead… they will not heed the warnings to stay home (and starve…)
In more affluent countries the rule of law is respected … and people believe they have something to lose so they will not oppose the police or military in large numbers — those that do will be hunted down and shot dead…. this will be covered on CNN (embedded presstitutes and all)….
There is already a name for these people – Covidi ots.
I suspect that right now the PR people are working on a new term to describe them … the task is — create a new word using Covid… and some form of the word murder…. there would be a team of people spending hours on this
The Jones family will be glued to the teevee watching quarantine breakers getting smashed by drone missiles…. current events will be all about discussing how the police need to be supported by reporting those who dare to break lockdowns
Check it out:
I think the idea is that the virus and dust blows in the wind and gets inhaled. They did that in China right from the beginning.
Not sure how good for health and the environment drenching every inch of city in disinfectant is.
PR101.b Fear is your friend. Men in hazmat suits spraying streets with disinfectant definitely inspires fear.
Parking a massive hospital ship in the NY harbour (without any patients) is powerful.
https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2019/07/09/PBKS/fb868bae-347d-41d6-ae09-29f01b8171a0-190617-N-LU814-244.jpeg
And the siren in the sky — now THAT…. I give an A+ to whoever thought of that!!!
Hosing down the street does seem like a strange thing to do.
They were doing that at the outset, apparently.
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/03/photos-large-scale-disinfection-efforts-against-coronavirus/607810/
Yum! Look at photo #8!
And my all time favourite!
https://i.insider.com/5e36f14b5bc79c5275579735?width=600&format=jpeg
This is good — firing stuff out of a canon!!! While some dude screams through a loud hailer…..
This would all make for an awesome comedy skit!
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/QIjFh37NimMmq3VUQVsRe1Nrb48=/900×599/media/img/photo/2020/03/coronavirus-spraying-tk/s14_RTS31UYJ/original.jpg
WOW! This show is AWEsome!!
Thanks for the new article
COVID-19 strikes most seriously at people with preexisting conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and obesity. It strikes most seriously at societies with preexisting conditions such as lack of social trust, broken health care, forever wars, and vulture capitalism.
Nah, overcrowding and large families living in cramped conditions is the main culprit.
In Bali large numbers of people live in worker dorms … roughly half of the people in Bali come from other islands in Indonesia — this is how they live. Locals live in village compounds with a great deal of interaction at ceremonies and in their daily life. Bali has a minimal covid problem.
The reason so many are likely dying in the US (and most of them are old) is because MOST people in the US are obese and/or diseased by the time they are 50. MOST Americans are KFC chomping Big Gulp guzzling pigs. Diabetes and heart disease are rife in that country. Throw in the flu and it pushes them over the cliff.
I think you are right. Back in 1957-1958, health care was inexpensive. There was much less distinction between the rich and poor. It was much easier to not worry about the disease.
In point [6] the first article linked goes on to roundly debunk his theory as nonsense. The genome for COVID-19 is freely available for labs to analyse. In the case of COVID-19 there is plenty diverse, serious and skeptical expert commentary published to paraphrase to provide a realistic summary of the likelihood or not of a vaccine for this post. The weaving in of conspiracy theory into your important work undermines it.
I am afraid I don’t know what you are talking about. What conspiracy?
I presume you are talking about COVID-19. I understand this is what WHO is now saying:
World Health Organisation warns that Covid-19 ‘may never go away’
Those Gain of Function efforts in the Wuhan lab increased transmissibility of this virus by decades from what it would have taken if occurring naturally, according to Chris Martgenson’s youtube video from yesterday. The virus is just scary enough per the damage it can do to vital organs or in some cases causing death, and now even some suggestion it is leading to inflammatory cases in children (although that needs to be proven conclusively), that people are afraid of getting it and are hunkering down even if some politicians are removing lockdowns. They’re willing to stall so to speak to buy time in hopes of a viable vaccine or effective treatment.
The view from above suggests we should all ignore the possible implications of the virus and go back to BAU to keep the world economy revving as much as possible, and early on I saw the truth of that until too many stats came out about damage to vital organs. I smashed my left kidney in childhood falling down a ravine, bled internally for 3 days and it stopped bleeding on the morning they were going to remove it. I recovered over several months, then in my 30’s it stopped working and that part of my body went cold. An accupuncturist using needles and a 9 volt battery with alligator clips connecting two key meridians (I kid you not) jolted the thing back into working again. Afterwards I urinated some really dark dried blood that smelled horrific. Now in my mid 60’s it still works just fine but I have to sleep on my left side.
If I get the virus I’m certain it will take the path of least resistance and kill off that kidney and then likely the other one will be an easy target. Many elderly patients end up going on dialysis and previously they had two good kidneys, not one. Dialysis would be my last curtain call. So I admit to being very afraid of the virus and so is my wife for her own reasons. We don’t go out unless absolutely necessary and then we wear masks if getting out of the car. Likely many other people feel the same way.
We are willing to stay the course to see if a vaccine or treatment can be achieved. Otherwise we’ll take our chances like everyone else will have to. Meanwhile yes the world economy is caving in. Not sure what to tell you, except good luck folks.
Not fear, respect.
If you are walking in the woods and you know that dangerous animals are around, you make noise, and watch for sign. If you see a rattle snake, you count yourself lucky, and stay away.
If you have to go to the store, wear a good mask and touch as little as possible.
Or, is it common sense?
Not according to Ardern – masks ‘do more harm than good’
Meanwhile Australia (minimal lockdown) – NZ (total 8 week lockdown) have similar infections and deaths per 100k.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-27/has-new-zealand-done-better-than-australia-on-coronavirus/12182254
The NZ MSM will not touch that data… why is the opposition party not having a go at Ardern on this??????
There is an election upcoming … surely this would be an AWESOME opportunity to slam G3T?
Her lockdowns have destroyed the economy…. and achieved nothing.
First, let’s get perspective on the deadliness. COVID has a death rate of less than 1%. I know it’s small consolation, but the Spanish Flu with a rate of 5%, the Black Death at 30-50%, and smallpox in the Americas at 90% make COVID look like a pussycat.
Now: Where did it come from?
What it bioengineered from HIV? No
Was it bioengineered at all? No
Well, where did it come from?
Did it escape from a lab?
This does not leave China off free. Their mishandling of the original outbreak and lies about it ( even to themselves) Let it loose on the world. Of course, we in the United States bungled ( and are still bungling ) it badly too. Let’s cut out the damn conspiracy theories. We have enough real problems to deal with.
Takeaway: Nature always bats last. (Has the last word for non-baseball fans.)
Selectively breeding a virus through controlled filters for 5 to 7 years is just a different form of engineering than straight up gene splicing. The virus is allegedly very similar to a corona-virus the Chinese discovered in 2013, but didn’t tell anyone about until after this outbreak started.
It is an amazing coincidence at the very least that a lab researching bat corona viruses and how bats are asymptomatic carriers for several years was less than 1000 feet from the market the outbreak began in. A lab technician from that lab was erased from existence around the time the outbreak began, and a job posting to replace that employee appeared in November 2019. For some reason, no one with a cell phone entered the lab for two weeks in October. The virus could be natural and this could just be a lot of coincidences.
A nobel prize winning virologist disagrees with you.
A friend of mine went to the hospital for a checkup when she was pregnant at the age of 35, and they discovered that she only had one kidney. However, very intriguingly, this kidney was twice the normal size. She never “lost” a kidney. One of them simply didn’t form when she was in the womb and apparently something in the body compensated by growing the other one twice as large.
Gail, wonderful. Direct, broad, and clear. I have a friend who has a genetic auto-immune disease. It turns out it confers some protection against SARS and HIV. He wonders if it will also provide some protection against CV19.
I wouldn’t assume that it does. I have a sister with lupus, which is an autoimmune disease. She is concerned that she would be more vulnerable, rather than less.
I believe this must be the planned culling of the population we’ve all feared. I also believe the elites have been vaccinated against the covid-19, and we’re nearing the end of our run as humans. They’re probably spaying this virus out of airplanes when we’re sleeping. Thank you Gail, brilliant. Also, happy late Mothers Day.
I am afraid that there is no vaccination against COVID-19 for the elites or anyone else. It is really not something anyone has figured out.
I know that bioweapons have been explored for a long time. Could this be one? I doubt it, but without getting to the bottom of where it came from, we will never know.
The elites better come up with a better virus, in Norway the average age of those dying “with” this one is 85 years.
… and still the govs and the garbage media is crying “wolf!”. Give me strength …
I have a little bit take on the origins of the shutdowns. It seems that it was the public who has been taking the lead. Here in the U.S. even before the first government shutdown, air travel and dining out were dropping off. Apparently, people responded to learning about the virus by pulling back socially and closing their wallets. Our political leaders took their cue from their citizenry.. . People are in no hurry to end the shutdowns if the polls are to be believed. In fact, part of the population seems to be ready to continue staying at home indefinitely,and not traveling..
One of the major trends of the pandemic is the degree to which the elements of daily life are being pushed down to the household level. People are working at home and children are learning online from home. With the restaurants closed except for take-out, more meals are being prepared at home. And there is anecdotal evidence that there is more gardening this season in rural and suburban areas. Continuing economic problems may lead to an increase in the number of multi-generational households over the next couple years.
>>It seems that it was the public who has been taking the lead
The public, or the mainstream media (propaganda machine) who inform the public?
And who controls the MSM?
Global Health Mafia Protection Racket
There certainly have been changes in the direction you are talking about, but I am not sure that it had much to do with the virus.
I know that chain restaurants have had a hard time in recent years, simply because people haven’t had enough discretionary money to spend on eating out. If they ate out, they often went to fast food places.
Also, many people have not been happy with the education available in schools. There are too many disruptive children who are not really at school to learn. Quite a few people I know are home schooling their children, for this reason.
And, people are unhappy with the long time spent commuting. Anything that would give them some more hours back in their personal lives would be helpful.
Young people have felt a lot of pressure to have apartments of their own. Now, with so many in the same “boat,” I expect that it will become more socially acceptable to move in with parents.
Gail, I agree with your observations here. When I lived in Europe 2000-2012, I experienced a very different set of consumer expectations (though they were changing). After the 2008 financial crisis, I read that the U.S. had something like 20 sq.ft per capita retail space, while the highest in Europe was in Sweden, which had something like 3 sf./capita (I can’t find my original source for this, so let’s just entertain the general concept).
This meant that the U.S. could lose 85% of its retail space overnight and still fall into “first-world” parameters. Clearly “the US economy” is not ready for that sort of contraction.
This documentary is from 2013 but it rings true today more than ever. If you haven’t seen it I’d highly recommend it.
Deep. Well worth watching. Thank you, Dan.
Ha! Yes, thanks for this link. Watching this, and “A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash”, used to be my go-to videos when I needed my doomer fix.
great link—thanks
it just confirms that we are being crushed by the very system that we collectively chose to create and inflict on ourselves
What I find ironic is the desperation to return to a failed / failing system.
Let us not forget our goose was cooked well before this pandemic.
Four Horsemen is a 2012 British documentary film directed by Ross Ashcroft. The film criticises the system of fractional reserve banking, debt-based economy and political lobbying by banks, which it regards as a serious threat to Western civilisation.
Rubbish. Without this system BAU would have collapsed long ago and we’d be scratching in the dirt. They system we have has evolved to allow for continued growth — any system that got in the way and threatened growth (e.g. communism) was crushed. You cannot fight the inevitable. Survival of the fittest.
It criticises the War on Terror, which it maintains is not fought to eliminate al-Qaeda and other militant organizations, but to create larger debt to the banks.
Now this is total bull sh it. The war on terror is a war to keep the oil on the market. Plain and simple. Just as WW1 was…. We vilify the guys with the oil and use that to get the sheeple on side to blow them to bits and control the oil. For those who think this is not ‘nice’ then read The Prince. THAT is how the world works.
As an alternative, the film promotes a return to classical economics and the gold standard.
Ridiculous. Impossible. Completely out of touch with reality and the way the modern economy functions.
But then I see Max Keiser was involved in this …. not exactly the voice of reason or logic.
And a great reason to … move along.
So Gail, are you for or against the coronavirus to reset the BAU madness into a LTG scenario 2 “state”? Basically risking it all.
What does your heart tell you?
🦠
I don’t understand what you are saying. The second LTG scenario described is “Double Resources.” That clearly can’t happen. In fact, I cannot imagine any of the other scenarios actually happening.
The concept of “risk” is interesting (though I have not given it much study other than to discard its usefulness in this situation). I’ve talked a bit to Nate Hagens (someone generating a lot of valuable counsel in this time of transition) and Steve Kurtz (a prominent commenter at some “doomer” sites, and one of the inheritors of a spinoff of Jay Hanson’s old “America 2.0” list) about this. They both come from the financial field and are used to gauging risk in terms of percentage possibilities of a certain thing occurring. This is in large part how actuaries ply their trade.
This could not be further from my own deterministic perception, which is that everything which occurs has 100% chance of occurring, and that the only deviation from this certainty is due to defects in human perception.
The notion of determinism in objective reality have been refuted by experiment in quantum mechanics.
However, the large scale laws of nature certainly act in accordance with deterministic rules. Such as the motion of the planets in the solar system.
Thus we are forced to conclude that the universe does not care one iota about our delusional concepts of determinism. It is a false dichotomy based on concepts which is not grounded in reality.
This thing, whatever it might be, is firmly outside of the realm of conceptual and mathematical considerations, in a “place” where determinism and nondeterminism can coexist giving form to the void which underpins it all. My best guess is that it is an approximation of a deterministic system, whatever that means if anything at all.
Thanks for the new article, Gail! It could perhaps interest you to read this piece of political advice by some big guns of economics. https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/advance-article/doi/10.1093/oxrep/graa015/5832003
Do they ever get in touch with the real situation outside their growthmodell?
It is amazing all of the worthless articles that come out of academic organizations. Maybe the shrinking back will get rid of this problem.
I received an email about “Stunning Losses of Clean Energy Losses” in March, and concerns that this will continue. This is the link of others are interested:
ps://e2.org/releases/106000-jobs-in-clean-energy-lost-in-march-due-to-covid-19-economic-crisis/
We are going to Technofeudalism. People like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk owning huge estates over the expanse of the earth. The only choice for those who are not named Bezos and Musk would be either serfdom or extinctoin
I suppose that is part of “the wealth tends to rise to the top,” like steam when water is heated. Some of the poor are “frozen out,” like ice.
Sounds like a great senario for a steampunk distopia.
A guess, the skills going forward will not be the same as those in the past. The US has tried to control much of the world, it is and was a very hard job.
Dennis L.
Very beutifil articol thank you
You are welcome.
All politicians of both right and left have as their main activity public order have chosen public order, the lockdown serves only as public order not to congest hospitals.
This goal (prevention of overwhelming hospital ICUs, ventilator numbers, etc.) has been very explicit in most of the quarantine actions I’ve seen. On this point I disagree with Gail; It think a descent starting with a forced major reduction in unneeded sections of the economic engine (airplanes!) is far better than a whole bunch of older folks (and quite a few younger ones) going through hell and/or dying.
>> than a whole bunch of older folks (and quite a few younger ones) going through hell and/or dying.
Worldwide about 4 M folks are officially classed as having had the virus, and almost 300,000 have died from it. That is 1:2,000 and 1:26,000 respectively.
Globally about 120 million die from other causes every year.
The UN have suggested that maybe up to half the working population of the planet will end up out of work as a result of the lockdowns. Those in the less developed countries, if they don’t work they don’t eat. I don’t want the world to be ravished by huge famines, but I don’t see now how they can be avoided.
Coronavirus pandemic will cause global famines of ‘biblical proportions,’ UN warns
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/africa/coronavirus-famine-un-warning-intl/index.html
If the mainstream media stopped reporting on COVID 19 100%, and instead focused on the economic carnage resulting from lockdown, the huge number of job losses, companies going bankrupt, disruption to global food supply systems, day after day like they do now with COVID 19, I think the public attitude would change pretty damn quickly. But alas, the media are not interested, and very few people visit web sites like here, where they can be well-informed.
“Worldwide about 4 M folks are officially classed as having had the virus, and almost 300,000 have died from it. That is 1:2,000 and 1:26,000 respectively.
Globally about 120 million die from other causes every year”.
4,000,000 / 300,000 = 13.3
‘Officially’
As Gail pointed out in her article, the number who actually have the virus is believed to be much, much higher than reported, they have just never shown any symptoms. And the number who have died from COVID 19 may well be exaggerated. In the USA in particular, doctors have a huge financial insensitive to report a death as COVID 19:
Coronavirus and Dodgy Death Numbers
https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-death-numbers/5712605
But there are a huge number of people who have had the illness who are not counted in the 4 million. Many people have had the illness and are unaware of it. This is why antibody studies of populations are important. Otherwise, the counts of people who have had the illness are simply low guesses.
Perhaps they can send the antibody tests to Antarctica, where supposedly there are 5000 people with zero infections. That way, they can find the false positive rate of the antibody tests. If the tests show positive 10% of the time, due to having had a common cold in the last 3 months, that will really affect the results.
Matthew, your proposal assumes a.) that the tests are reliable (they are not) and b.) that anyone important really wants to know how many/few are truly “exposed”/immune”/”virulent”, as opposed to what numbers they think they can make hay from.
You mean 300,000 / 4,000,000. That’s 3/40, or 7.5%. And since the number infected is vasty undercounted, that is a vast overestimate.
You’re all missing my point. All the ‘horrors’ of the economic shut down (which are in large part due to inequity) will be far worse later if we continue to limp along for another few years with yet more “growth” (population, economic). A shut down in response to a pandemic pushes us away from growth. IMO, the sooner that happens, the better.
Let me fix it for you: which are in large part due to inequity that has been caused by the end of cheap to produce energy.
So you are hoping for the end of growth — how you liking it so far? Government got your back with a wage subsidy? Enjoy it…. this purgatory it will not last.
You will get your wish – total collapse – and starvation (and spent fuel ponds). You’ll get delivered directly into Hell’s gaping maw…
The skies will be smog-free though…. not much of a silver lining though heheh
Yes I know … I am too negative… I get that a lot….
I like Gail’s posts, I am a degrowth entusiast from Brazil.
But I should say i feel a bit disappointed. The biggest part of scientists are defendind social distancing.
Here in Brazil the deaths started to increase when people stopped respecting the quarantine, due specially to the presidents behaviour
This is too serious and too complex to relate to a simple measure as “using masks”.
Lockdowns are related specially to the collapse of the health systems, and to help the health workers who are suffering. All the factors you mentioned are far lesse determinating than these ones.
We are talking about lives. Do you mean we should all stop the quarantines and wear masks to go outside?
The whole story gets to be quite complex. There are all kinds of “social distancing.” There are trade-offs in any decision we make.
There is a range of solutions that can be used:
(1) Just let the disease burn itself out as quickly as possible. Let doctors and health care providers provide whatever care they can. Most other patients will be frightened away from the hospital, so as a practical matter, there will be a lot more room than what models would suggest. This approach would need to be accompanied by a list of what people can do for themselves: take acetaminophen for body aches and fever, or use cold cloths on the head for fever; take vitamin C and zinc to try to strengthen the immune system; get fresh air and sunshine to the extent possible, while staying away from others. If a patient has difficulty breathing, make certain that they are placed on their stomach, to help them breathe better. Get medical help, if possible.
(2) Carefully analyze which situations seem to cause the illness to spread widely and take steps to eliminate these problem areas, in as cost-efficient manner as possible. The Germans seem to have done a lot of this. This is a reasonable discussion of some of the issues: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them It points out, “Remember the formulae: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time.” It is not necessary to eliminate all contacts, just the most problematic ones. The Germans are also using masks in many situations, including riding on public transport.
(3) Demand that people stay at home, except for very brief visits outside. This looks like it would work, but unfortunately, it isn’t as helpful as it looks. There is still a lot of sharing of the illness with others using the same ventilating system, even if they are more than six feet away. Also, our immune system works by the good bacteria fighting the bad bacteria. If we take major steps to eliminate all bacteria, our immune systems can end up less effective than they were previously. Keeping elderly people away from all people for several weeks is likely to make them more susceptible to disease, not less.
There is a huge cost of shutting down businesses, because of the many people who lose their jobs and the huge amount of debt that defaults. Indirectly, the shutdowns can lead to starvation of people who are currently part of supply lines. Thus, the life you think you are saving is likely offset by others that are being lost.
It is not clear to me that there is a perfect solution. Some people will need to die, and some businesses will need to fail, simply because we are reaching limits of a finite world.
Thanks for the article, Gail, very good sense. Now, who would go to a restaurant after reading that?
Talking to a customer over the phone this afternoon, they had the impression that most of their younger family members and their friends had quite possibly had COVID with mild symptoms. No deaths so far.
All upper middle-class professionals, office workers. They are now very wary of returning to the old office routines: poorer non-professionals will have no choice in that. A new class divide (if we survive)?
The world’s number one problem today is that the world’s population is too large for its resource base.
Bingo!
Meadows and the others work in the early 70’s is amazingly right on.
Exactly! I became acquainted with Dennis Meadows several years ago. He reads at least some of my posts.
Or rather, population times consumption is too high. At $1/ day living standard, there could probably be a trillion people on Earth sustainably. Something like 50 billion at $20/day might be a little less horrific, though.
At a $1 a day living standard, demand would be so weak that the world economy would not work to feed all of those people. For example, ocean-going fishing ships – which are tech-advanced and use a lot of difficult-to-acquire fuel – would cease to operate. Could a trillion people make up for that by getting their fish from rivers and coastal fishing with nets and rowboats?
No. It is a complete system. We can’t just rearrange the bits as we might wish.
Kim, you are so right! Most people don’t really understand the depth of our FF underpinnings, even now when it’s a major topic of discussion.
Still, I’m seeing a lot of unused life sustaining capacity going to waste. Among too many other examples is food destroyed for not meeting cosmetic standards, and almost everything that goes in a landfill. Also, there could be a way to get more people active in ways that produce “taxes” of some sort.
Or just think how sterile our roads and suburbs are: the old European system was to plant the verges of roads with fruit and nut trees, which also produced masses of firewood for baking and small home fires. But that in turn required lots of hand labour to do the gathering.
We erected a system which, at best, could only last for a century or so and trashed one that could last for thousands of years (with humane legal and natural population control) , so we will have to reap what we’ve sown.
The rural California landscapes (that developers haven’t yet bought out and paved over) are a lot like this. Orchards right up to the road. The main house and out buildings tightly bunched and shrouded with trees.
We are killing off the planet, leaving no room for other forms of life, now.
1 Trillion? I don’t want to live in a world where there is no room for others.
Provided we were shrunk down to the size of mice, rats and toads—and with brain capacity to match (most of us wouldn’t notice the difference)—a trillion of us might be doable. The world might then be turned into a huge Wind in the Willows fantasyland. This, I believe, is the ultimate aim of David Attenborough.
thank you, Gail…
it’s good that you used the precise word “Predicament”…
“[10] One way the combination of (a) the activity of the virus and (b) our responses to the virus may play out is as a slow-motion, controlled demolition of the world economy. ”
I agree… slow slow slow slow motion…
not a con.spir.acy fueled demolition…
but a reduction of economic activity that has a “controlled” descent, where governments are doing what they can to control/mitigate the speed of the reduction…
now, time to reread the entire article…
It is very strange how a self-organizing system seems to work.
There are actually some benefits from lockdowns, which help sooth objections. Expressways are less congested, so they are easier to use, when needed. People who can work at home find less of their day is taken up by commenting. In areas that are not too fussy about who is outside when, and for how long, it is easier to meet neighbors, because many of them are now outside walking as well. (Gyms are no longer open.)
It’s quite true, Gail, that my daily life, at least, has become much more pleasant – not that it was bad before – due to the effects of the lock-downs. Much more tranquil. Just as long as I can put the thought of starvation out of my mind, that is…..
Though I live in a small rural-ish town, I have to disagree. On a superficial level, my life is affected very little: put on a mask as a courtesy when going to the supermarket or hardware store. less traffic, bla bla bla. On a deeper level, the idea that we cannot meet normally with friends, we cannot do the convivial things the human race has always done—eat and drink together—is disturbing. We are busting out again on Sunday.. anyone who can get to my place in Central Vermont by 4pm can partake in a locally-raised roasted turkey. Ask Gail for my e-mail to RSVP!
I thought a recent post by Tim Watkins (Consciousness of Sheep blog) was interesting, when he referred to experimented-upon puppies forced into a kind of catatonia given the changing of rules and rewards to which they were subject.
Lockdown = Boring >>>>>>>>>> Starvation.
But then I suppose the alternative is riots and cannibalism… lockdown not so bad.
Human beings who do not interact with each other, exchanging ideas, objects and microbes – I think the scientific name of that species is sheep-zombies.Then we are in the middle of a gigantic process of sheep zombifiication.But I suspect isn’t gonna work as the Big Shepherds would like.
We are in the epoch of mass ret ard if ication.
Right. The dumbing down process started a long time ago, but the kind of disconnection from reality that we see today could only have been fully achieved with the digitization of human relationships. Each person closed in its tech cell and operating in full transparency for a power that, in turn, is increasingly opaque. It is the ideal situation for those who wish to fully control the human herd. I as misanthope can’t fully disagree with that kind of manouvers. Too many sheeps for a too small meadow. I get.
Oh yes, I miss all of that social stuff too, but I have endless projects to work on at the moment and the tranquility is simply delicious – basically, no very low-intellect people making loads of noise for no reason, driving their crappy noisy cars.
It’s a relief, as summer can get so noisy and all for no reason. I am left with the bees and birds, the gentle hiss of gilding tools, the rasp of a file or pleasant sound of a hand-saw.
The air is clearer, too,and the weather perfection.It will be a very hard ad even cruel winter if we get there, so I’m enjoying it to the full!
The peace of our world dying, of course, but no less wonderful for all that.
Send me the puppy-torturers, I can devise some fun for them in my garden shed.
I suspect that very few leaders -if any – actually know it to be an inevitable descent, Some military planners, perhaps.
However, it’s quite clear that the cascading consequences of lock-downs were not fully anticipated, and they are going to have their very hands full fighting and mitigating them.
Could it be that this “controlled demolition” is an attempt to avert the whole shebang going off the Seneca cliff? Do the governors have a plan, underwritten by a computer model, to get us down the bumpy slope with a minimum of bruising and bloodshed?
We need to start from the premise that Covid was created in a lab (Nobel prize winning virologist says so) and released on purpose — impossible to prove but based on the highly organized fear and disinformation campaign that has followed along with the fact that the response appears to have been made up by the 3 stooges (when the CDC has a 233 page manual for pandemic emergencies that states face coverings are highly recommended)….
If anyone is not operating off of the above premises and believes this completely insane situation we are experiencing is (insane in that none of it makes any sense — in particular the attempt to eliminate a virus by locking it down and closing borders literally for years) … happenstance…
Then there is no point in arguing the CDP.
Nobody with any power or intelligence understands that we ran out of cheap oil at the turn of the century with conventional peaking. Only Gail and a few people on this obscure blog know about – or understand the implications of that.
And the responses we saw to that (including a massive ‘Drill Baby Drill’ campaign and over a decade subsidizing the living daylights out of shale — a business that has NEVER made a dime on a single barrel of oil…)… oh no — that was just happenstance too….
Exxon and other Big Oil companies have blindly waded into the shale patch and demolished their bottom lines because …. because they are blind? Or is it stooopid? Is it that they did not understand that shale is a one way ticket to accounting hell? Or maybe the CEO of Exxon just wanted to suicide the company ….
This is the state of the average person …
https://pop-verse.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Idiocracy3.png
But make no mistake…. the men who run this sh it show …. know 10,000x what anyone on OFW knows about the oil situation …. you are getting a peak at the tip of the berg… nothing more….
If they were not aware there is no way in hell shale would have happened… those 8M barrels or so of swing supply would not be on the market…. $147 oil would have been the peak (of both price and production)…. it would have crashed as it did….
And that would have been all she wrote…
The men who run the world bought us 12 years (and themselves) with some very clever and very extreme policies… those policies were no longer working in 2019 (as has been predicted on OFW)….
This would be only one of many indices that they keep an eye on that lets them know when their policies are pushing on strings https://www.brookings.edu/research/april-2020-update-to-tiger-the-coronavirus-collapse-is-upon-us/
The curtain was being pulled…. the BEAST was roaring (just a few short months ago….) … month after month these men were looking at this heinous creature .. teeth flashing… and desperately trying to pull that curtain back…
It was all hands on deck… but they were losing the fight.
But being thorough they had a Plan B…. recall how in the Vietnam War the marines bombarded a village overrun by VC ‘destroying it to save it’
This Plan B was similar — only it involved calling in a nuclear bomb — a financial nuclear bomb… the village was about to be overrun by the BEAST… so what do you do? You hit it with the mother of all trillions… you force the beast back behind the curtain….
But you know this won’t get you another 12 years…. this is the calm before the storm…
You use this to prepare your cattle for the slaughter…. you unleash the flu (call it the Plague)…. assault them with fright…. then as the effects of the nuclear bomb wear off… and the BEAST begins to slide the curtain ….
You force the cattle into their pens — and starve them….. till they are skin and bones…
Depriving the BEAST of carrying out its mission of total mayhem and suffering.
The BEAST lurks inside all of us. The men who run this place understand that — and they are killing the BEAST – they are killing us.
For those who have not watched this I highly recommend you do….
For those who have skip to the 25:00 mark – trust me – that will be the most important minute of video you will ever watch (and this is probably the great post to every appear on OFW)
Have you seen “Utopia” From Channel 4? If this was intentional, why release in a single location, instead of several at once and pretend that the outbreak was ongoing for longer?
China was the major mistake, I think. As I’m sure you know, GDP is 99% correlated to oil consumption. China needs 9% growth. That means every 8 years, their oil consumption must double, or they collapse.
If the goal was to buy time, they would have regime changed China a few doublings ago and got them on board the 2% growth train.
Yes have seen Utopia…
Love your work but the section seing the virus as a mix between AIDs ans SARS is just wrong I am affraid Gail. And Prof. Montagier claims have been for weeks debunked as it was more a fake news that anything else (a nobel prize is not a guarantee of expertise, see Nordhaus getting one…), see https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/04/17/le-coronavirus-fabrique-a-partir-du-virus-du-sida-la-these-tres-contestee-du-pr-luc-montagnier_6036972_4355770.html (in French)
I was well aware of this issue when I wrote my post. You will note that I never say that I believe that this virus has escaped from a laboratory. In fact, whether or not it has escaped in pretty much incidental to my whole discussion.
Another issue I have been well aware of is that there has been a barrage of stories purporting to “prove” that the virus must have come from the wet market, not a laboratory. Writers from the Chinese laboratories accused of possibly being involved in this have been authors of some such articles. France had a part in building the more recent of the labs in Wuhan, so they have had some involvement in this issue as well. So has Australia.
It is very difficult to write about something controversial and not have someone else say, “This clearly must be wrong.” Such writings don’t necessarily convince me one way or another.
Hi Gail; What is the end game of the US printing money to prop up the economy. Now that deficits exceed $25T and will continue forever probably, when does money become meaningless? Or can the economy be propped up indefinitely? Thanks! -john d
I think that at some point, something “breaks” and individual countries will need to start over.
Basically, we will not be producing as much goods and services. To have half-way enough to go around, the benefit of these goods and services need to go primarily to the workers who produce these goods and services, in almost a barter-like exchange. It doesn’t make sense to share a large portion of these goods and services with non-productive members of the economy.
My expectation is that the new financial system will mostly be a system to reward current workers for their labor. It will also be used in the supply chains that work to provide goods and services. Today’s huge valuations going to assets (often based on future repayment of debt) will need to disappear. I expect that the new currency will be less exchangeable among countries.
Gail, great post, as always. On the topic of a new financial system, I wonder if that conversion will go down without a fight. As we all know, the US dollar is backed by the “full faith…etc.” of the US government, which is in turn backed by a very large and capable military. If push comes to shove, the US is very capable of some big shoving, like maintaining its resource supply along the lines of the “Carter Doctrine” in the Middle East, the “Monroe Doctrine” in the Americas, etc. So if/when the current supply glut and lower prices should give way to a supply shortage and higher prices (for oil, our IC life blood), the US military is there to insure it comes here, and not elsewhere. Could be dangerous, but is in line with those who plan to go out with a bang, and not a whimper.
Hello Gail, Well you’re just all sunshine and buttercups today!
On a more serious note, it certainly looks like a planned demolition of the economy. You’re point about shutting down the economy in an effort to hide disrupting supply chains really resonated with me.
The economy is certainly filled with a lot of businesses that are operating “near the edge.” Forcing businesses to close for even two weeks or four weeks tends to “shake out” which businesses these are. For example, we know that malls and department stores within malls have been going down hill for many years. This forces the issue.
Accelerating the end of the declining businesses, and crushing even those which were well-run and doing just fine before the lock-downs.
I am finding it very saddening to see them all running into trouble as I buy things online -everything is now seizing up. Staffing problems, supply-chain, slowing and uncertain order fulfillment, etc.
Meanwhile, so many middle-class high-income professionals are saying that they ‘wonder why they didn’t move to home-working before and who needs offices anyway.’ No, it really isn’t going to be as simple as that…….
“Who needs offices” are the legal/illegal cleaners. “Who needs offices” are landlords. “Who needs offices” are all the unglamourous firms that sell office chairs and cubicles and carpeting and provide coffee service. “Who needs offices” are the star-chitects and their lesser followers.
“Who needs offices” are the government parasites who can’t extract property tax twice from people who work from home.
Nicely put.
I don’t know if things have changed. Over 30 years back, an IRS man visited our home, and said I’d be taxed more if he found I had a studio (or office) in the apartment.
Yes, all true, vital jobs for them: but the well-heeled types who say that offices are ‘so yesterday’ don’t appreciate that one bit.
Who in the castle ever cared what it was like in the hovels?
The people I was quoting above – smart corporate lawyers – are actually very close friends of the Clintons, just to make it even worse!
Pingback: Understanding Our Pandemic – Economy Predicament – Enjeux énergies et environnement
Lessons From Slovakia—Where Leaders Wear Masks
The country’s politicians led by example, helping it flatten its curve.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/05/slovakia-mask-coronavirus-pandemic-success/611545/
It is hard to get a good list of which countries use masks and to what extent. If leaders use masks, I am certain that it makes a big difference.
I know that Germany is requiring masks to some extent.
In Portugal since last week we can’t enter any public place withou a mask. Which I think it is an exaggeration, at the very least, because we can only beat this virus through herd immunity and by strengthening the immune system. After all, it was with this double defense system that humanity overcame, over millennia, all types of viral or bacteriological diseases. If humanity thrived trough TB or smallpox, we can guess it would easily survived covid-19. But it will not survive the quarantinization of the global economy, that’s for sure. But as you rightly say, if it were not the virus, it would be something else.
Antibodies for the common cold only last a few months, and it seems like people reinfected with SARS have a worse outcome the second time around. Betting on herd immunity would require over 60 percent of the population to be infected in less than 3 months. That would mean something like 2 percent of the population getting hospitalized in that same time frame, which seems to be beyond the capacity of the system.
Two percent of the population in the hospital would be a wonderful prospect. Or at least infinitely better than that of 98% of the starving population.
I vote for the hospitalization. Covid parties everywhere asap. Even better, since the desired herd immunity would be faster, I would suggest the air force to spray the population with covid-19. Air forces of the world, unite and just do it please. Now!
Don’t be so hyperbolic. As long as the grains and vegetables get produced, hardly anyone will starve. If Vietnam, with 1/30th the GDP per capita as USA, can give people rice and vegetables, I’m sure most of the rest of the world can, too.
Hyperboles have a sacred right to exist, grounded in the best literature. You cannot deny it.
And I think you can’t extrapolate the situation in Vietnam and apply it to the globalized economy For one, Vietnam has better weather conditions for agriculture than most countries in the world, with temperature in a range of 10-32 C and an average rainfall of ~2000 mm. Perhaps this is a factor that we should take into account?
And, forgot to say, in Vietname today 40% of the population works in agriculture. Ten years ago it was almst 50%. And in the OECD countries? 3%? Hum…
Do you think change is impossible? There are millions of kids, from elementary to just out of college, to put to work on the plantations and home gardens. I guess we’ll see where we’re at next spring.
Ardern: “Masks Might Do More Harm Than Good’
As for experts calling for masks to be used on public transport, Ardern said the Ministry of Health had reviewed all the evidence and research.
It concluded certain areas like frontline health staff, and those working in jobs with no way to physically distance should use masks.
“For the general public if you don’t wear them properly you might be in a position of more harm than good,” she said citing masks had to be changed regularly.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/alert-levels-could-change-if-needed-ardern
Now that is rather odd given this:
Otago Uni researchers double down on call for masks
A group of Kiwi public health experts have repeated calls for “mass masking” amid the Covid-19 pandemic – this time setting out the benefits for people riding on buses or crossing the border.
The use of masks has been debated among researchers; while many have argued they offer extra protection, a recent Government-commissioned review found there wasn’t enough scientific evidence to make recommendations either way.
Nonetheless, Otago University researchers have doubled down on earlier calls for mass masking in a blog post today.
Those experts – professors Nick Wilson and Michael Baker, and doctors Sophie Febery, Ling Chan and Amanda Kvalsvig – said there was “significant” indirect evidence from mask-wearing countries to indicate the practice was an effective public health measure when combined with hand-washing and physical distancing.
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/campus/university-of-otago/otago-uni-researchers-double-down-call-masks
Mummy Ardern is like the dumb peasant women who followed traditional child-care routines and killed their babies -all with love!
She demonstrates the great danger of being totally sincere, but bloody thick.
I always thought a provincial place like New Zealand, with lots of farmers, might be the last bastion of sound no- nonsense, common sense; but they elected and believe her……
It must be maddening for anyone intelligent in NZ who can actually weigh evidence and reason.
She can do no wrong… and people call her Jacinda … I mean people who do not know her…. it’s as if she is their older sister…. what fantastic PR she has…. although it helps when every MSM in a country refuses to publish anything negative about her.
The second wave in NZ will be amusing… back into lockdown .. and there still will be no questions asked.
FE a fast burn to herd immunity. Go Ardern! Go NZ!
If herd immunity was the plan she would not have locked down for 2 months
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Nice. Because our species evolved to deny unpleasant realities we will never acknowledge that overshoot was at the core of our unraveling. Without the Wuhan virus it would have been clear skies and economic growth forever.
Right! Someone suggested that COVID-19 the scapegoat for the many other problems we are having now. It becomes easy to hide overshoot when a country is locked down.