Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post.

Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes, such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs, including:

  • Too much wage disparity
  • Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
  • Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
  • An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
  • Susceptibility to epidemics

Many people have the misimpression that our most important problem will be “running out” of oil. Because of this, they believe that oil prices will rise high if the system is reaching its limits. Since oil prices are not very high, they assume that the problem is far away. Once a person understands what the real issue is, it is (unfortunately) relatively easy to see that the current economy seems to be quite close to collapse.

In this post, I provide images from a recent presentation I gave, together with some comments. A video of the presentation is available on the Uncomfortable Knowledge Hub, here. A PDF of the presentation can be downloaded here:

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4

In some ways, a self-organizing system is analogous to a dome that might be built with a child’s toy building set (Slide 4). New layers of businesses and consumers are always being added, as are new regulations, more or less on top of the prior structure. At the same time, old consumers are dying off and products that are no longer needed are being discontinued. This happens without central direction from anyone. Entrepreneurs see the need for new products and try to satisfy them. Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.

Slide 5

Resources of many kinds are needed for an economy. Harnessing energy of many types is especially important. Early economies burned biomass and used the labor of animals. In recent years, we have added other types of energy, such as fossil fuels and electricity, to supplement our own human energy. Without supplemental energy of various kinds, we would be very limited in the kinds of goods and services that could be produced. Our farming would be limited to digging in the ground with a stick, for example.

The fact that there is almost an equivalence between employees and consumers is very important. If the wages of consumers are high, relative to the prices of the goods and services available, then consumers are able to buy many of those goods and services. As a result, citizens tend to be happy. But if there are too many low paid workers, or people without work at all, consumers are likely to be unhappy because they cannot afford the basic necessities of life.

Slide 6

The problem civilizations are facing is a two-sided problem: (1) Growing population and (2) Resources that often degrade or deplete. As a result, the amount of resources per person falls. If this were carried to the limit, all of us would starve.

Slide 7

As resources deplete and population grows, local leaders can see that problems are on the horizon. At first, adding technology, such as a new dam to provide water to make farms more productive, helps. As more and more technology and other complexity is added, there is less and less “bang for the buck.” We can easily see this in the healthcare field. Early antibiotics had a very big payback; recent medical innovations that help a group of 500 or 1000 people with a particular rare disease can be expected to have a much smaller payback.

A second issue with added complexity is that it increasingly leads to a society of the very wealthy plus many very low paid workers. Joseph Tainter identified the combination of these two issues as leading to collapse in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Slide 8

Françios Roddier is an astrophysicist who writes primarily in French. His book Thermodynamique de l’évolution was published in 2012; it is now available in English as well.

The issue of starving people in Yemen is an issue today. In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world. The world tourism industry is dead; the industry of making fancy clothing for people in rich countries is greatly reduced. People who formerly made a living in these industries in poor countries increasingly find it difficult to earn an adequate living with other available jobs. Rich countries tend to have better safety nets when there are widespread reductions in job-availability.

Slide 9

Businesses often make long lasting goods such as machines to be used in factories or automobiles to be used by consumers. Governments often make long-lasting goods such as paved roads and school buildings. When making these goods, they take some combination of commodities, built machinery, and human labor to make goods and services that people will use for many years into the future. The future value of these goods is hoped to be significantly greater than the value of the inputs used to create these goods and services.

There are at least three reasons that time-shifting devices are needed:

  1. Workers need to be paid as these goods are made.
  2. Businesses need to build factories in advance.
  3. Businesses, governments and individuals are all likely to find the future payments more manageable, even with interest added, than they are as a single payment upfront.

I don’t mention the issue in Slide 9, but once time-shifting devices are created, they become very easy to manipulate. For example, no one knows precisely what the future value of a particular investment will be. Governments, especially, are prone to make investments in unneeded infrastructure, simply to provide jobs for people. We also know that there are diminishing returns to added technology, but stocks of technology companies tend to be valued as if complexity will save the world. Third, interest rate manipulations (lower!) and the offering of debt to those who seem unlikely to be able ever to repay the debt can be used to make the economy of a country appear to be in better shape than it really is. Many of us remember the collapse of the US subprime housing debt bubble in 2008.

Slide 10

The purpose of a financial system is to allocate goods and services. High wages allocate a larger share of the output of an economy to a particular person than low wages. Appreciation in asset values (such as prices of shares of stock, or value of a home or piece of land) also act to increase the share of the goods and services produced by the economy to an individual. Payment of interest, dividends and rents are other ways of allocating goods and services that the economy makes. Governments can print money, but they cannot print goods and services!

As the economy gets more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services. For one thing (not mentioned on Slide 10), as the economy becomes more complex, an increasing share of the goods and services produced by the economy need to go into making all of the intermediate goods that make that industrial economy work. Intermediate goods would include factories, semi-trucks, hydroelectric dams, oil pipelines and other goods and services that don’t directly benefit an individual consumer. They are needed to make the overall system work.

As the economy gets bigger and more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly find themselves left out. Besides losing an increasing part of the output of the intermediate goods and services mentioned in the prior paragraph, there are other pieces that take slices of the total output of goods and services:

  • High paid workers take their quite-large slices of the total output. These individuals tend to be the ones who get the benefit of asset appreciation, as well.
  • Pension programs and other programs to help the elderly and unemployed take a cut.
  • Health insurance costs, in the US at least, tend to be very high, relative to wages, for lower-paid workers.
  • The work of some employees can be replaced by low-paid overseas employees or by robots. If they are to keep their jobs, their wages need to be suitably low to compete.

With all of these issues, the workers at the bottom of the employment hierarchy increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services made by the economy.

Slide 11

We know some of the kinds of things that happen when economies are close to collapse from the writings of researchers such as Peter Turchin, lead author of Secular Cycles, and Joseph Tainter, mentioned earlier. One approach is for governments to try to work around the resource problem by starting wars with other economies whose resources they might gain. Probably a more likely outcome is that these low-resource-per-capita economies become vulnerable to attack by other economies because of their weakened condition. In any event, more conflict is likely as resource limits hit.

If the low incomes of non-elite workers persist, many bad outcomes can be expected. Local riots can be expected as citizens protest their low wages or pensions. Governments are likely to find that they cannot collect enough taxes. Governments will also find that they must cut back on programs, or (in today’s world) their currencies will sink relative to currencies of other countries. Intergovernmental organizations may fail for lack of funding, or governments may be overthrown by unhappy citizens.

Debt defaults can be expected. Governments have a long history of defaulting on their debts when conditions were bad according to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

It becomes very easy for epidemics to take hold because of the poor eating habits and the close living quarters of non-elite workers.

With respect to inflation-adjusted commodity prices, it is logical that they would stay low because a large share of the population would be impoverished and thus not able to afford very many of these commodities. A person would expect gluts of commodities, as occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States because many farmers and farm-hands had been displaced by modern farming equipment. We also find that the book of Revelation from the Bible seems to indicate that low prices and lack of demand were problems at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon (Revelation 18:11-13).

Slide 12

Much of what peak oil theory misunderstands is what our society as a whole misunderstands. Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction. A major part of the problem is that added complexity leads to too much wage and wealth disparity. Eventually, the low wages of many of the workers filter through to oil and other energy prices, making prices too low for producers.

Collapse isn’t instantaneous, as we will see on Slide 26. As resources per capita fall too low, there are several ways to keep problems hidden. More debt at lower interest rates can be added. New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems. Increased globalization can be used. Corners can be cut on electricity transmission, installation and maintenance, and in the building of new electricity generating structures. It is only when the economy hits a bump in the road (such as a climate-related event) that there suddenly is a major problem: Electricity production fails, or not enough food is produced. In fact, California, Florida, and China have all encountered the need for rolling blackouts with respect to electricity in the past year; China is now encountering difficulty with inadequate food supply, as well.

Economists have played a major role in hiding problems with energy with their models that seem to show that prices can be expected to rise if there is a shortage of oil or other energy. Their models miss the point that adequate supplemental energy is just as important for demand as it is for supply of finished goods and services. The reason energy is important for demand is because demand depends on the wages of workers, and the wages of workers in turn depend on the productivity of those workers. The use of energy supplies to allow workers to operate tools of many kinds (such as computers, trucks, electric lights, ovens, and agricultural equipment) greatly influences the productivity of those workers.

A person who believes energy prices can rise endlessly is likely to believe that recycling can increase without limit because of ever-rising prices. Such a person is also likely to believe that the substitution of intermittent renewables for fossil fuels will work because high prices for scarce electricity will enable an approach that is inherently high-cost, if any continuity of supply is required.

Thus, the confusion isn’t so much that of peak oilers. Instead, the confusion is that of economists and scientists building models based on past history. These models miss the turning points that occur as limits approach. They assume that future patterns will replicate past patterns, but this is not what happens in a finite world. If we lived in a world without limits, their models would be correct. This confusion is very much built into today’s thinking.

In fact, we are living in an economic system/ecosystem that has brakes to it. These brakes are being applied now, even though 99%+ of the population isn’t aware of the problem. The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.

Slide 13

The opinions expressed in Slide 13 reflect some of the views I have heard expressed speaking with peak oilers and with people looking into issues from a biophysical economics perspective. Obviously, views differ from person to person.

Many people believe that resources in the ground provide a good estimate of the quantity of fossil fuels that can be extracted in the future. Peak oilers tend to believe that the available resources will need to have sufficiently high “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI) ratios to make extraction feasible. Politicians and climate modelers tend to believe that prices can rise endlessly, so low EROEI is no obstacle. They seem to believe that anything that we have the technical skill to extract, even coal under the North Sea, can be extracted.

If a person believes the high estimates of fossil fuel resources that seem to be available and misses the point that the economy has built-in brakes, climate change becomes the issue of major concern.

My view is that most of the resources that seem to be available will be left in the ground because of low prices and problems associated with collapse, such as failing governments and broken supply lines. In any event, we do not really have the ability to fix the climate; the laws of physics will provide their own adjustment. We will simply need to live with whatever climate is provided. Humans lived through ice-ages in the past. Presumably, whatever humans remain after what seems to be an upcoming bottleneck will be able to live in suitable areas of the world in the future.

Slide 14

On Slide 14, note that today’s industrial economy must necessarily come to an end, just as the lives of hurricanes and of people come to an end.

Also note that with diminishing returns, the cost of producing many of the things listed on Slide 14 is rising. For example, with rising population, dry areas of the world eventually need to use desalination to get enough fresh water for their growing populations. Desalination is expensive. Even if the necessary workaround is simply deeper wells, this still adds costs.

With diminishing returns affecting many parts of the economy simultaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for efforts in the direction of efficiency to lead to costs that are truly lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Advanced education and health care in particular tend to have an ever-rising inflation-adjusted costs of production. Some minerals do as well, as the quality of ores depletes.

Slide 15

An important issue to note is that wages need to cover all the rising costs, even the rising cost of health care. The paychecks of many people, especially those without advanced education, fall too low to meet all of their needs.

Slide 16

Slides 16 and 17 describe some of the reasons why oil prices don’t necessarily rise with scarcity.

Slide 17
Slide 18

I was one of the co-authors of the Ke Wang paper mentioned in Slide 18. We developed three different forecasts of how much oil would be extracted in China, depending on how high oil prices would be able to rise. The Red Line is the “Stays Low” Scenario, with prices close to $50 per barrel. The Yellow Line is the “Ever-Rising Prices” Scenario. The Best Estimate reflects the expectation that prices would be in roughly the $100 to $120 barrel range, from 2015 onward.

Slide 19

In fact, oil prices have stayed fairly low, and China’s oil production has declined, as our paper predicted.

Slide 20
Slide 21

Note that the chart on Slide 21 shows wage disparity only in the US. On this basis, the share of wages going to the top 1% and top 0.1% are back at the levels that they were in the 1920s. Now, our economy is much more global. If we consider all of the low income people in the world, the worldwide wage disparity is much greater.

Slide 22

There are two things to note on Slide 22. The first is that producers, in inflation-adjusted terms, seem to need very high prices, approximately $120 per barrel or more. This is based on a presentation made by Steve Kopits, which I wrote up here: Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.

The other thing to note is that oil prices tend to bounce around a great deal. Prices seem to depend on the amount of debt and on interest rates, as well as the wages of workers. The peak in oil prices in mid-2008 came precisely at the time the debt bubble broke with respect to mortgage and credit card debt in the US. I wrote about this in an article in the journal Energy called, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell. Recently, there has been a great deal of QE done, as well as direct spending by governments, but oil prices are still far below the $120 per barrel level. Middle Eastern oil producers especially need high oil prices, in order to collect the high tax revenue that they depend upon to provide programs for their citizens.

Slide 23

Coal prices (Slide 23) tend to follow somewhat the same pattern as oil prices (Slide 22). There is very much the same balancing act with coal prices as well: Coal prices need to be high enough for producers, but not too high for customers to buy products made with coal, such as electricity and steel.

China tries to keep its coal prices relatively high in order to encourage production within the country. China has been limiting imports to try to keep prices high. The relatively high coal prices of China make it an attractive destination for coal exporters. There are now a large number of boats waiting outside China hoping to sell coal to China at an attractive price.

Slide 24

The blue line on Figure 24 represents total energy consumption up through 2020. The red dotted line is a rough guesstimate of how energy consumption might fall. This decline could happen if people wanting energy consumption coming only from renewables were able to succeed by 2050 (except I am doubtful that these renewable energy types would really be of much use by themselves).

Alternatively, this might also be the decline that our self-organizing economy takes us on. We are already seeing a decrease in energy consumption related to the current pandemic. I think governmental reactions to the pandemic were prompted, in part, by the very stretched condition of our oil and other energy supplies. Countries were experiencing riots over low wages. They also could not afford to import as much oil as they were importing. Shutdowns in response to COVID-19 cases seemed like a sensible thing to do. They helped restore order and saved on energy imports. Strangely enough, the pandemic may be a part of the collapse that our self-organizing economy is arranging for us.

Slide 25

Slide 25 takes the blue line from Slide 24 and looks at what happened in more detail. On Slide 25, we are looking at the average annual increase in energy consumption, for a given 10 year period. This is split between the rate of population growth (blue), and the energy consumption growth that went into other things, which I equate to change in “standard of living” (red). The big red humps represent very good times, economically. The post-World War II bump is especially high. The valleys are times of disturbing changes, including wars and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Of course, all of these situations occurred during periods when energy consumption was generally rising. If these unfortunate things happened when oil consumption was rising, what might possibly happen when energy consumption is falling?

Slide 26

We now seem to be hitting the Crisis Stage. In the past, collapse (which takes place in the Crisis Stage) has not been instantaneous; it has taken place over quite a number of years, typically 20 or more. The world economy is quite different now, with its international trade system and heavy use of debt. It would seem likely that a collapse could happen more quickly. A common characteristic of collapses, such as avalanches, is that they often seem to start off fairly slowly. Then, suddenly, a large piece breaks away, and there is a big collapse. Something analogous to this could possibly happen with the economy, too.

Slide 27

One of the major issues with adding intermittent renewables to the electric grid is a pricing problem. Once wind and solar are given subsidies (even the subsidy of “going first”), all of the other types of electricity production seem to need subsidies, as well. It is the pricing systems that are terribly detrimental, although this is not generally noticed. In fact, researchers who are looking only at energy may not even care if the pricing is wrong. Ultimately, the low pricing for electricity can be expected to bring the electric grid down, just as inadequate prices for fossil fuels can be expected to lead to the closure of many fossil fuel producers. Both Texas and California are having difficulty because they have not been collecting enough funds from customers to build resilient systems.

Slide 28
Slide 29

The focus of EROEI research is often with respect to whether the EROEI of a particular type of energy production is “high enough,” relative to some goal, such as 3:1 or 10:1. I believe that there needs to be more focus on the total quantity of net energy produced. If there is an EROEI goal for highly complex energy types, it needs to be much higher than for less complex energy types.

Slide 30

Today, it is common to see the EROEIs of a number of different types of energy displayed side-by-side as if they were comparable. This type of comparison is also made with other energy metrics, such as “Levelized Cost of Electricity” and “Energy Payback Period.” I think this approach makes highly complex types of energy production, such as intermittent wind and solar, look better than they really are. Even intermittent hydroelectric power generation, such as is encountered in places with rainy seasons and dry seasons and in places that are subject to frequent droughts, is not really comparable to electricity supply that can be provided year-around by fossil fuel providers, if adequate storage is available.

Slide 31

Earlier in this post, I documented a number of reasons why we should expect low rather than high energy prices in the future. I am reiterating the point here because it is a point energy researchers need especially to be aware of. Production is likely to come to an end because it is unprofitable.

Slide 32

One characteristic of human-made complexity is that it has very little redundancy. If something goes wrong in one part of one system, it is likely to ripple through that system, as well as other systems to which the first system is connected. An outage of oil is likely to indirectly affect electricity because oil is needed to fix problems with electricity transmission lines. An electricity outage may cause disruption in oil drilling and refining, and even in filling up automobiles at service stations. An international trade disruption can break supply lines and leave shipping containers at the wrong end of the globe.

We know that collapse tends to lead to less complex systems. We should expect fewer jobs requiring advanced education. We should expect to start losing battles against infectious diseases. We should expect a reduction in international trade; in the future, it may primarily take place among a few trusted partners. Some intergovernmental organizations are likely to disappear. Peak oil cannot happen by itself; it can only happen with disruptions and shrinkage in many other parts of the economy, as well.

Slide 33

The climate is indeed changing. Unfortunately, we humans have little ability to change what is happening, especially at this late date. Arguably, some changes could have been made much earlier, for example in the 1970s when the modeling included in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donnela Meadows and others showed that the world economy was likely to hit limits before 2050.

It is clear to many people that the world economy is now struggling. There is too much debt; young people are having trouble finding jobs that pay well enough; people in poor countries are increasingly more food insecure. Leaders everywhere would like solutions. The “easy” solution to offer is that intermittent wind and solar will solve all our problems, including climate change. The closer a person looks at the situation, the more the solution seems like nonsense. Wind and solar work passably well at small concentrations within electric systems, if it is possible to work around their pricing problems. But they don’t scale up well. Energy researchers especially should be aware of these difficulties.

The book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee points out that there have been an amazing number of what seem to be coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to flourish for four billion years. Perhaps these coincidences will continue. Perhaps there is an underlying plan that we are not aware of.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,333 Responses to Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

  1. Harry McGibbs says:

    “In any other country, an official target of 6% annual economic growth would be almost preposterous. In China that target, announced Friday, is so modest it’s clear something else is going on. That something: Beijing’s escalating fears about a rumbling debt volcano.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/nursing-chinas-debt-hangover-11614987801

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Another State-Backed Coal Firm Misses Bond Payments as Regulator Pledges ‘Zero Tolerance’: Jizhong Energy Group Co. Ltd. missed part of its payments on two bonds that came due Friday, several of its bondholders told Caixin.”

      https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-03-06/another-state-backed-coal-firm-misses-bond-payments-as-regulator-pledges-zero-tolerance-101671822.html

    • China’s GDP grew by 2.3% last year, but consumer spending shrank by 3.9%. It is unlikely that the GDP growth was all “real.” Some of it no doubt reflected debt-based spending on projects with little true long-term value.

      A six percent growth rate is equal to what China now says its economy grew in 2019. With all of the world’s broken supply lines, I wonder if 6% will be a stretch this year.

    • Nehemiah says:

      This “financial plumbing” expert says that a lot of Chinese co’s, not just coal co’s, don’t have enough US dollars to cover their dollar denominated debt. Rather than let them go belly up, the People’s Bank of China PBOC has used its non-dollar reserves to buy dollars and funnel them to the distressed companies.

      He also days that downturns in China typical precede downturns in the US by 8 months to a year (partial transcript):

      “basically decoupling the pmi in china’s tipping downward

      the pmi in the united states is surging higher

      …this happened before

      well it’s actually a regular occurrence

      in fact it’s it’s almost perfectly predictable the chinese economy seems to dip tip

      downward before the us economy by a matter of you know eight nine months

      maybe to a year so it’s not at all uh not at all unusual to see those two diverge

      in fact it’s it’s practically historical

      that’s that’s kind of how it happens

      and really reflation and decoupling go hand in hand but the point of that

      is though when we start to hear decoupling when in the reflationary context

      it’s usually when reflation is starting to die out and change over to the next

      uh euro dollar global dollar shortage stage

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QW3N-81u9Z4&list=TLPQMDUwMzIwMjGIUcHELdZEYg&index=23

      27 minutes, a little bit technical (it’s “financial plumbing” stuff)

  2. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Boy. This has my head spinning…
    Travel guy from Spain updating on the measures that are being relaxed…sarcasm
    We are in a Depression…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0-XZmdMEEIw

    Can’t understand how folks are tolerating this non sense…

  3. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/its-time-to-flush-out-secret-political-donors-160411511.html

    Dark-money groups are different. Many have nonprofit status but don’t have to report anything to the FEC. Some run ads or conduct campaign activities—such as transporting protesters to the Jan. 6 Trump rally. Others raise money from donors able to remain secret, then contribute to super PACs able to accept huge donations. Those PACs must list the dark-money group as a donor, but whoever gave the money in the first place remains anonymous.

    A new dark-money twist is a shell company affiliated with a traditional campaign that can spend campaign funds without the normal disclosure requirements. The 2020 Trump campaign used a private company called American Made Media Consultants for nearly half of its $1.3 billion in spending on advertising, direct mail, software and a variety of other things. The Trump campaign had to disclose disbursements to the shell company, but the shell company didn’t have to disclose what it spent the money on. That raises the possibility the firm is a kind of slush fund directing donor money to favored vendors and perhaps even Trump family members getting paid as “consultants.” The Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the FEC, arguing the arrangement is illegal.

    Dark-money groups spent at least $750 million in the 2020 elections, a record. One dark-money group funneled more than $1 million in foreign donations to Trump operations, which is flatly illegal. Author Jane Mayer asserts in her book “Dark Money” that secret funding by billionaires allows plutocrats to control government policy, worsening wealth and income inequality.

    Sure, betcha those behind this so called investigation and reform are those same donating..
    Cones up front time to time to appear we are hot on their trail and reforming the system.
    Put Bernie and AOC in charge, that will do it..sarcasm

  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “As a lethal pandemic, economic and physical insecurity, and violent conflict ravaged the world in 2020, democracy’s defenders sustained heavy new losses in their struggle against authoritarian foes, shifting the international balance in favor of tyranny.

    “Incumbent leaders increasingly used force to crush opponents and settle scores, sometimes in the name of public health, while beleaguered activists—lacking effective international support—faced heavy jail sentences, torture, or murder in many settings.

    “These withering blows marked the 15th consecutive year of decline in global freedom.”

    https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege

  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Traders at Goldman Sachs Group Inc could earn roughly $100 million in profit from the winter storm last month that left many across Texas and other southern U.S. states without electricity, clean water and heat, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-poised-200-million-profit-152857610.html

  6. Yoshua says:

    WTI 66.26

    The oil price broke to the up side…after breaking to the downside last year.

    What happens now? Something will blow up?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/travvy_s/status/1368023714462240770

    • I see that Brent futures have not yet broken out. Perhaps that makes a difference.

      • Nehemiah says:

        There is almost always a gap of several dollars between Brent and WTI. If one keeps going, the other will follow, but is it driven by supply and demand or fevered speculation? Hard to say these days, but a few weeks back Art Berman said he expected to see a large oil price rise in the near future. I can’t believe he’s going to get it right yet again. How does he do it? It’s like he’s some kind of industry expert or something. (sarc guys, don’t explain it to me)

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  10. Gerard d'Olivat says:

    Venezuela introduces banknotes of 1 million bolivar

    On the tragedy of a collapsing ‘oil’ producing one-sided economy.
    What hopeless suffering for a whole nation that once had a bright future ahead of it in the fifties and sixties. An interesting phenomenon among fossil-producing countries is the so-called ‘dutch desease’. I have experienced this ‘disease’ up close because I grew up in the golden decades of the great Dutch discoveries.
    It is called Dutch Disease because in the 1960’s – due to the discovered natural gas reserves and the sale of part of it to foreign countries – the value of the guilder increased more and more. As a result, the competitive position for business became increasingly worse, and from the early 1970s, unemployment rose. The Economist wrote in 1977 about the policy of the Dutch government following the sharp increase in natural gas prices after the First Oil Crisis (1973). The “Dutch Disease,” according to The Economist, would mean that natural gas profits were used for consumerist and socialist political purposes.

    Well and then ‘socialism’ did it, just like in Venezuela…… but it is a bit more complicated.

    Venezuela launches million bolivar bills in response to inflation

    The country’s central bank announced Friday that it will expand its monetary system from March 8, 2021, to “meet the needs of the national economy.”

    The new banknotes of 200,000, 500,000 and 1 million bolivar “will be put into circulation gradually from March 8, 2021” to “meet the needs of the national economy,” the Central Bank of Venezuela said.
    The new banknotes of 200,000, 500,000 and 1 million bolivar “will be put into circulation gradually from March 8, 2021” to “meet the needs of the national economy,” the Central Bank of Venezuela said.

    The Central Bank of Venezuela announced Friday that it will expand its monetary system with the issuance of three new bills, including one of 1 million bolivars, in a context of galloping hyperinflation.

    These bills of 200,000, 500,000 and 1 million bolivars “will be put into circulation gradually from March 8, 2021” to “meet the needs of the national economy,” the issuer said in a statement.
    A fourth year of hyperinflation

    Together, these three bills do not even represent the equivalent of one U.S. dollar, which is currently exchanged for 1.88 million bolivars. A kilo of tomatoes, eight sandwiches, a 250 ml soft drink or a poor quality soap cost about 1 million bolivar, in a Venezuelan economy marked by a fourth year of hyperinflation, which reached almost 3,000% in 2020.

    “The problem in a hyperinflationary cycle is that the speed at which the Central Bank updates the monetary system is never fast enough.”

    In practice, the bolivar is replaced by the dollar, which has become the de facto currency in Venezuela. In stores, prices are displayed in dollars and payment is made in foreign currency. To pay in local currency, residents usually use a debit card or make a bank transfer. Paper bolivars are usually used in public transportation. The monetary system was previously extended until June 2019.
    The editors recommend

  11. Minority Of One says:

    A couple of interesting articles relating to vaccines.

    Jon Rappoport writes in this article that the story of Ebola is very similar to that of CV19. The PCR test is also used to identify people with ebola. He also makes the interesting point, re the PCR test:

    “In fact, before 1985, when the science was turned on its head, antibody-positive status was taken to mean the patient’s immune system had successfully warded off the germ.”

    Ebola: the new fake outbreak
    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2021/03/02/ebola-the-new-fake-outbreak/

    This article compares the frequency of several illnesses between the general population and those who have never been vaccinated (0.26%, maybe), in the USA.

    New survey of vaccine-free group exposes long-term impact of vaccination policies on public health
    https://vaxxter.com/new-survey-of-vaccine-free-group-exposes-long-term-impact-of-vaccination-policies-on-public-health-by-greg-glaser-and-pat-oconnell/

  12. Pingback: When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally Implode? – SHTF Plan – Kolozeg.Org

  13. Central banks are gradually warming to digital currencies

    What began as a dream to wrestle control away from the state is becoming a model of adoption for the central banks that, once wary of digital currencies, are now learning to love them

    Replacing physical cash

    Another reason why central bankers are warming up to CBDCs is the slow but steady adoption of cryptocurrencies by the public (see Fig 1). Initial coin offerings (ICOs), once seen as a scam, are becoming a mainstream method for start-ups to raise capital. By late November 2020, the total market capitalisation of crypto assets stood at £476bn. COVID-19 has also boosted the use of digital cash, with digital payments becoming the norm. “The pandemic has led to an increased focus on digital cash to replace contaminable physical cash, in addition to creating more reliable, effective, and optimised mechanisms for the distribution of [COVID-19] relief funds. This led central banks to prioritise CBDCs,” Hernandez said.
    https://www.worldfinance.com/banking/central-banks-are-gradually-warming-to-digital-currencies

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “By late November 2020, the total market capitalisation of crypto assets stood at £476bn.”

      the price surge since then has moved this number above 1 trillion.

      which is crayzee, and just another sign that the economic endgame is here.

    • Xabier says:

      Contaminable cash’: there were posters up here about 5-10 years ago ‘Cash: it’s so dirty!’

  14. IBM And Moderna Join Forces To Improve COVID-19 Vaccine Tracking

    The pilot projects include IBM blockchain and AI technologies with a goal ‘to improve confidence in vaccine programs and increase rates of vaccination.’

    IBM has inked an agreement with COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna to pilot technologies to improve supply chain management and tracking of the vaccines.

    The companies will explore improved information sharing among governments, health care providers, life science organizations and individuals through AI, blockchain and hybrid cloud, according to a statement Thursday.

    The Armonk, N.Y.-based tech company and Cambridge, Mass.-based biotech Moderna hope to improve confidence in vaccine programs and increase the vaccination rate if the pilots prove successful.
    https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/ibm-and-moderna-join-forces-to-improve-covid-19-vaccine-tracking

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Question:

    With respiratory viruses, we never lock down – and herd immunity is achieved within a matter of months.

    Sweden has not locked down and it’s been a year since Covid surfaced there – and still they do not have herd immunity.

    Why not?

    Could it be that the Elders are releasing Covid 2.0…2.1…2.2… south African Coivd, Devil Covid etc… to ensure herd immunity is never attainable?

    • Nehemiah says:

      Spanish flu and pneumonic plague (black death) are both spread through respiration, and in neither case was herd immunity reached in a few months.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Maybe not a few months, but they petered out within a few years.

        More importantly, Eddy was referring specifically to respiratory viruses.

        Pneumonic plague is caused not by a virus but by the bacterium Yersinia pestis.

        Spanish flu may have been caused by vaccinations injected into soldiers or by bacteria that thrived under conditions where millions of people were wearing face masks. There are a surprisingly large number of theories, and lots of speculation, but not a lot of solid facts about what caused the Spanish flu.

      • I am afraid I don’t really believe most of this stuff. I don’t think Gates, Fauci and others really are able to plan this far ahead. They badly need BAU to be continuing themselves, for one thing.

    • hillcountry says:

      I’ve been curious about Jim West’s hypothesis for a few months. I’ve read his interesting books, done background on his environmental contributions in New York City and see that his prior work on toxicology was referenced in Virus Mania by Torsten Engelbrecht and Claus Kohnlein (2007). When you mentioned Sweden I recalled a chart of his that states Sweden burns un-fracked oil imported from Russia, with a low death-per-100k attributed to SARS-CoV-2 as of April 9, 2020.

      https://harvoa-med.blogspot.com/2020/04/COVID2020.html

    • Respiratory viruses leave an individual with immunity for a while, generally at least 6 months. They spread primarily during the winter months, partly because people are inside more, and partly because cold temperatures aid in keeping the virus able to infect others for a longer period.

      They don’t stop spreading because of herd immunity; they mostly don’t spread because of individual immunity and changing weather conditions. They are the same viruses going around year after year.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Can anyone find the video from last week where Trudeau slipped and said ‘we are working on new variants of Covid’…. then backtracked…

        I can’t find it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Found it!

        https://youtu.be/dHpgSqySJ1Y

        • Tim Groves says:

          “New Variants are Being Developed”

          What would have been Dr. Freud’s diagnosis of that?

          It is reminiscent of George W. Bush talking about “explosives (on nine/11) went off at a point high enough to prevent people trapped above from escaping”.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wph1bCTzmEo

          Or Donald Rumsfield admitting that a missile hit the Pentagon.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Probably not a slip … just mocking the CovIDIOTS….

            They even commissioned a series of movies explaining (metaphorically) how they run the world … knowing the cattle would never connect the dots.

            They must laugh at how easy it is to manipulate the cattle.. or maybe not … it’s just a given by now

  16. kervennic says:

    Thanks for your post.
    I have a simple question that you might have already answere before. How much oil is used in oil industry to produce one barrel of oil (oil used for transportation, material, feeding workers etc).
    Another similar question: how much oil is used today by the energy sector at large.
    Finally, what are the historical trends (how fast is net oil amount avialable for industrial production and sevices decreasing)… I guess that will tell us a lot about collapse.

    • The answer is, not a whole lot. Oil is a high valued product. The energy industry is smart. It will use low valued products, such as natural gas, whenever it can. And steel made with coal is used for drilling the wells. So, as a practical matter, the energy products used to produce oil tend to be fairly low valued.

      The folks who do the calculations lump high and low-valued energy products together, so what you get is energy (whether low or high valued) used to produce oil.

      Greentech Media wrote an article in which they quoted my post along with the views of a lot of others. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/examining-the-limits-of-energy-return-on-investment

      Examining the Limits of Energy Return on Investment: Experts say a key energy metric doesn’t work for renewables

      This article says,

      [Prof. Charles] Hall also hinted at other limitations of EROI in real-life situations. “Fracked oil wells have had a decent EROI — 12:1 or more — when analyzed, but basically were a financial failure,” he said. “I am not sure why.”

      An EROI of 12:1 would imply that 8% of the energy of oil is used in the extraction of oil. I know I have seen EROI numbers quite a bit higher than 12:1 for oil from shale, implying that an even lower percentage of energy is used for extracting the oil. The majority of the oil the US is extracting today is oil from shale.

      I am afraid the truth is that the EROI calculation is a lot less helpful than people who have been looking at sustainability sites have been told it is. It perhaps can be used to compare two very comparable oil wells (for example, the same well from year to year), or two very comparable wind turbines.

      I don’t think EROI tells you a whole lot about collapse. You could get a lot more information from looking at oil consumption per capita, or total energy consumption per capita. To the extent that EROI is an issue, the incremental change in EROI for the overall world energy mix isn’t much each year. My examination of 200 years of data shows that total energy consumption per capita needs to be rising for the world as a whole, or the world economy is in deep trouble. Individual countries can work around this problem for a while, by selling more services instead of goods, but eventually they, too, run into problems.

  17. Mirror on the wall says:

    Spring is creeping into the Celtic Isles.

    Enjoy.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Nietzsche the Bohemian. I am reading through TWTP and it has some unexpected passages. His attention turns to the ‘personality’ (ein Person) as a ‘higher’ type distinct from the ‘herd’. He is not ‘optimistic’ about the survival of the type. The species is transmitted through the conformist herd and the personality is always an exception. He argues some unexpected things in that context, not of his usual ‘better society’ but of the real world in which he lived.

      > Where one must seek the stronger natures.- The ruin and degeneration of the solitary species is much greater and more terrible; they have the instincts of the herd, the tradition of values, against them; their instruments of defense, their protective instincts, are from the beginning not sufficiently strong or certain – chance must be very favorable to them if they are to prosper (- they prosper most often in the lowest and socially most abandoned elements; if one looks for personality, that is where one finds it much more certainly than in the middle classes!).

      The strata and class struggle that aims at “equality of rights” – once it is more or less over, the war against the solitary personality will begin. (In a certain sense, the latter can maintain and develop himself most easily in a democratic society: namely, when the coarser means of defense are no longer necessary and habits of order, honesty, justice, and trust are part of the usual conditions.)

      The strongest must be bound most firmly, watched, laid in chains, and guarded – if the instinct of the herd has its way. For them a regime of self-control, ascetic detachment, or “duty” in exhausting work in which one completely loses oneself. – TWTP 887

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      William Blake wrote the lyrics:

  18. racoon#9.5meg says:

    House prices double, wood products triple, and the magic black juice approaching $70. Printing presses turbo charged. Feels like the mother of all booms perhaps the one where fiat dies to me.

    • Minority Of One says:

      Beginnings of hyperinflation?

      • hillcountry says:

        Could be like breaking the sound-barrier – with a delayed-boom? Has it already happened and we’re just waiting for rivets to pop? There is a hypothesis out there that it is loss-of-confidence, not quantity of dollars, that is the trigger. Other hyperinflations have manifested a shortage-of-currency once they’re in process, even as authorities add zeroes. I’m fascinated to read the deflationary thoughts encountered over here and am trying to play catch-up on those.

        Thanks Gail – super presentation!!

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          my general idea is that essentials will inflate and non-essentials will deflate.

          that is quite simplistic, but anyway, that pair might be part of what keeps The Core away from hyperinflation.

          or not.

          certainly hyperinflation is already a serious problem in some of the smallest weakest peripheral countries.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Step 1. It will be artificially hiked margins on nonessential tangibles. Yes, that is the shit you buy with money you don’t have to impress people you don’t like.

          Step 2. Direct consumer/prosumer/small shop sales of raw materials. DIY, print/mill/solder open sourced kits. Fatter margins for the bulk producers and for advanced computersCNC/3D printer toolmakers. With the tools of the trade financed by the usual suspects of IC.

          I don’t see capitalism changing, rather evolving, because despite its crazy and mistakes fundamentally is thermodynamic in nature. Similar to nature it ingests energy and outputs sophistication.

          That is what I see happening.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “House prices double, wood products triple, and the magic black juice approaching $70.”

      we have just seen the graph in Gail’s latest article where the inflation adjusted oil price was in the area of $120 from 2011 through 2014.

      so oil prices don’t appear to be problematic right now.

      “Printing presses turbo charged.”

      yes, this is a big part of the problem, and perhaps an essentially irreversible part of the economic endgame.

      this seems unlikely to continue for more than another 10 years or so.

  19. Nehemiah says:

    The narrator may sound a bit melodramatic, but perhaps that just adds to the interest of these 2 short videos:

    Chaos Looming In Texas As The Power Crisis Triggered Food And Water Shortages And Business Collapse
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5_CxvBkpm4&list=TLPQMDUwMzIwMjHVhHdLk2pJhQ&index=3
    Less than 17 minutes.

    We Are Witnessing A Last Minute Mass Exodus Before The Final Collapse Of Our Major Cities
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tk_GLlEK2mU&list=TLPQMDUwMzIwMjHVhHdLk2pJhQ&index=4
    Less than 16 minutes.

    • I listened to the first one. I’ll try to get back to the other one later. The three points I noticed especially were:
      (1) A lot of hourly workers won’t get paid for a week’s work. This will make it hard for them to buy groceries and pay rent. I suppose that they will cut back on non-essentials in the weeks ahead as well.
      (2) A lot of businesses like restaurants were already “on the edge.” They lost one week’s worth of businesses. Quite often, they experienced damaged buildings/pipes as well. I would not expect damages from freezing pipes to be covered by very many insurance policies.
      (3) There is still a lot of fallout from the high prices being charged for electricity and natural gas that is yet to come. This will affect other spending. There will be lawsuits over it.

      In my view, electricity needs to be priced using a “utility” method of pricing, which includes all necessary costs. There also have to be regulations with respect to planning for freezing weather, since this happens fairly frequently (2011 and 2014, most recently). If electricity companies expect to use natural gas during cold weather, there has to be planning for this. The pipelines are not big enough to supply both gas for heating homes and businesses and gas for electricity providers (besides having problems with not be set up for cold weather). Someone needs to pay for bigger pipelines, if this isn’t to happen over and over.

      Also, wind and solar cannot be counted on at all in cold weather. Their compensation needs to take into account their lack or reliability.

    • I listened to the second video too. The trend to moving to the suburbs is going to continue. A person can get more housing for the $ in the suburbs. It is safer. There is no reason to go back now. I agree that this trend is continuing.

      I know I received two phone calls in the last two days asking whether I might be willing to sell my suburban home. (The answer has been, “No.”) There are absolutely no homes for sale around here. The homes that have been for sale recently have been fixed up and sold for quite a bit more than they sold for before. The homes in the area vary in age. The older homes were built in the mid-1970s.

  20. We remember Governor Cuomo of New York got an award for all of his theatrics in early 2020 with respect to how terrible COVID is. Recently, he has been accused of unwanted sexual advances.

    The latest news, according to the WSJ is Cuomo Advisers Altered Report on Covid-19 Nursing-Home Deaths
    Changes resulted in a significant undercount of the death toll attributed to long-term-care facility residents

    State officials now say more than 15,000 residents of nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities were confirmed or presumed to have died from Covid-19 since March of last year—counting both those who died in long-term-care facilities and those who died later in hospitals. That figure is about 50% higher than earlier official death tolls.

    The dreadful nursing home death count was associated with an earlier directive:

    That directive said that no nursing home could refuse to readmit residents or admit new residents from hospitals solely because of a Covid-19 diagnosis.

    The report as published left out all of the deaths of people who were transferred to hospitals before the died, but didn’t mention this. Also, according to the article,

    The report as published concluded that the directive was “not a significant factor in nursing home fatalities.”

  21. Alarm bells ring again for emerging debt

    Countries with already heavy debt burdens also had, unlike the major economies, limited ability to simply print their own currencies to fund those debts for fear of exchange rate crises stoking inflation and foreign investor strikes.

    A flooring of Western borrowing rates and a sharp weakening of the U.S. dollar alleviated the bind for countries with hard currency borrowing and market access – as did the yearend investor rush to rotate into the most beaten-down assets to anticipate a vaccination-led global bounceback.

    But the resilience of the dollar this year against an overwhelmingly negative consensus and last week’s surge in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields – as traders try to price an exceptional, stimulus-led rebound in nominal U.S. growth of up to 10% this year – saw many banks raise red flags once again.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-emerging-idUKKCN2AX0XZ?taid=60425588d4aa3f00019183d6&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

    • Yes. Emerging market countries are up against a lot of problems.

      Unlike the rebound from the global banking crash 12 years ago, rising real borrowing rates will likely hit emerging market debtors hard after a decade of falling potential growth and ebbing globalisation.

      At the same time, they argue, international investors are fearful long-term rates are now so close to their lower limits around or just below zero that bonds provide much less of a hedge in portfolios if equities or riskier assets like emerging markets sell off sharply.

      • Nehemiah says:

        People are getting awfully excited about bond yields having ticked up to a level that is barely equal to official CPI inflation,and so do not even increase the investors’ buying power. If the economy does not rebound sharply, the uptick (not even normalization) of Treasury long yields will be short lived.

  22. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Better than BitCorn!
    I went out to start my car one morning and it was abnormally loud. As soon as it started up, I knew what happened, it was very loud and you could smell the exhaust,” Christian Floom who’s an auto mechanic said.
    https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/news/local/it-was-loud-you-could-smell-the-exhaust-more-than-300-catalytic-converters-stolen-in-greensboro/83-b3c3fd3f-0e2c-4ca5-98dc-efb58702848b
    Floom’s catalytic converter was among those stolen recently across the Triad.
    Thefts of catalytic converters spike amid pandemic
    “It’s not just residential or commercial but anywhere that people can get access to vehicles and get under the cars and cut them out,” Officer P.J. Watson with the Greensboro Police Department said.
    The reason catalytic converters are a hot item according to investigators is that they’re valuable, easy to steal with simple tools, and hard to trace as they don’t have any markings.
    According to auto experts, the damage the thieves are leaving behind has also cost folks a lot of money in repairs.
    “That could be a very fairly expensive repair anywhere from $700-$1400,” Floom said.
    “The reason they’re after this is because there are precious metals in these converters that help filter out the emissions,” said Michael Gaskin, a manager at Beamer Tire and Auto in Greensboro.
    The precious metals include platinum, palladium, and rhodium which can fetch a lot of money.
    Gaskin said black market dealers and the pandemic are driving up the demand for catalytic converters.
    He said now people should start thinking about protecting their vehicles and keeping safety in mind whenever they leave their cars parked.
    “The best way to prevent it would be to get the vehicle in a garage or parked in a well-lit area. If you’re in an apartment complex or something like that, I will get it under some big light. Anything you can do to deter someone from coming and stealing,” Gaskin said.

    I lived through the gas crisis of the 197Os…remember all the news stories of gas tank siphoning thefts and the multiple contraptions to stop it. Remember buying lockng gas caps and a spring coil to shove down the gas refill pipe. Undoubtedly, when we return to shortages all this will come back again.

    This rash of catalytic converters thefts throughout the USA and this is just the beginning.
    Saw a neighbor who is out of work bring scrape metal to his yard and many pick up trucks doing the same. There is much copper and such waiting to be “salvaged” and recycled!

  23. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Kate Duguid

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – The cost of borrowing U.S. 10-year Treasuries in the overnight repurchase, or repo market, went deeply negative on Thursday, analysts said, as investors sought to short the notes, causing market stress.

    Negative rates in the repo market, which is important to the financial system, with trillions of dollars in short-term loans traded daily, partly reflect uncertainty about how long the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its easy monetary policy.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-10-treasuries-borrowing-rate-191308155.html
    MarketWatch
    5 reasons why negative repo rates are different than the last overnight-funding crisis
    Joy Wiltermuth
    Thu, March 4, 2021, 6:04 PM·4 min rea

    Rates to borrowers in the overnight U.S. Treasury market went negative heading into Thursday, a situation BofA Global analysts were predicting would happen “by May,” without tweaks from the central bank.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7ac5f41f-5d69-36a9-84da-dc91347f005b/5-reasons-why-negative-repo.html

    Oh my, seems this has reappeared…no worry it’s part of March Madness

    • According to the second article you linked, the following seem to be major considerations:

      “The bottom line is that more cash is chasing fewer securities, causing repo rates to briefly go negative,” and

      “Many people right now want to short the Treasury market.”

      Regarding the latter, they think the current prices of Treasuries are too high, meaning that they expect that interest rates will likely rise higher than they are today.

      • Nehemiah says:

        This is a very popular trade among non-institutional speculators, but the big banks have been betting on the opposite outcome. When this particular mismatch in expectations occurs, the common speculators are almost always on the losing side of the trade. That is why they are called the dumb money. If they merely had the acumen to pay attention to the Committment of Traders Report, they would not be making these very low probability bets. Now some traders got lucky on the pop in bond yields and the speculative fever is going wild. “Hyperinflation! Printing press go ‘brrrr!” Ignorance, folly, and greed on full display.

  24. Ed says:

    FE, NZ needs an air lock for shipping. That is all ships can come to the port and use the facilities in the port district. The NZ workers will come into the port district for three months of work with no leaving. After their shift they will quarantine for two weeks before leaving. NZ will be a hothouse of weak non immune humans hiding behind Jacinda’s quarantine line.

  25. The Federal Reserve will NOT admit defeat, they will commit harakiri and take down the entire financial system.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Evsix66VcAE7Ug5?format=jpg&name=small

    • At some point the FRS (or Texas branch) will simply continue local in NA / regional context only.. While the “RoW” would hammer out some sort of energy-goods trade swaps across fractured zones of the former global..

  26. In 2008, oil went up 68% in 6 months, then everything snapped.

    Since Nov2020, oil went up 84% in 4 months: severe stagflation will plunge us into extreme deflation.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EvsS9pHXEAA_gYK?format=jpg&name=medium

    • hillcountry says:

      Michael – you are hitting on all cylinders as we say in Detroit. Thanks for all the links and comments.

    • Minority Of One says:

      Oil increased from about $10 /barrel in 1999 to $147 /barrel in 2008. It took a long time before it all went pop. Although I doubt we will have to wait 9 years this time.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      We shall see—
      I have been riding the wave, but I think Gail is right.
      One never times this perfectly, but the last two days have been awesome.
      (minor player)

      • I see WTI is up to 66:10 today. US 10-year Treasury seems to be at 1.549%, and Euro his headed down, at 1.1913 to the dollar.

        Tesla stock price is still headed downward. It closed at $621.44. It is now at $586.94. NASDAQ overall is up.

  27. Sluggish physical oil sales struggle to match futures price surge

    But physical demand for crude from refiners and other end users has yet to catch up, with cargoes to key markets like China broadly trading at lower prices amid sluggish sales.

    “The current rally is not justified by oil market fundamentals, therefore it must be driven by financial investors. They are basically borrowing physical demand from the second half of the year,” said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga.

    J.P. Morgan said the benchmark Brent futures contract, which neared $68 a barrel last week before slipping to about $64 on Thursday, was “running two quarters ahead and $4 above what fundamentals warrant.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-physical-idUSKBN2AW1M3

    • I think that this Reuters article is critical to understanding what is going on.

      I sent a link to Steve Kopits. He had sent me (and the rest of his distribution list) an e-mail yesterday entitled, “Toward $100 Oil.”

      • racoon#9.5meg says:

        When JP does a sell analysis they want to buy.
        When JP does a buy analysis they want to sell.

        What are “fundamentals” when the unit of exchange value is diluting?

        Whats the “fundamentals” for a wood box with a roof compared to per capita income?

        Whats the “fundamentals” for gamestop?

        Whats the fundamentals of the density of iron?

        Are you comparing it to lead or helium.

        You cant break all the rules of a equation then say its still valid when it suits you.

        JP talking about fundamentals…Like they care or believe in fundamentals…

  28. Kowalainen says:

    The herd during lockdown:
    https://youtu.be/wDYNVH0U3cs

    The engineers during lockdown:
    https://youtu.be/NwHKh5ykkDY

    🤣👍

  29. Mirror on the wall says:

    OK Ireland! Joins China to post positive growth in 2020 due to exports. UK down 10%, biggest drop in 300 years.

    (The most recent poll found that 71% of Scots believe that they would be ‘better off’ outside UK.)

    > Irish economy shrugs off toughest restrictions in EU to post 2020 growth

    Export growth pushes GDP up 3.4% but Covid-19 pandemic hits domestic economy hard

    The Irish economy grew by 3.4 per cent in 2020, despite one of the toughest pandemic related lockdowns in Europe, on the back of record growth in the export sector.

    However, the domestic sector contracted by 5.4 per cent, as Covid-19 restrictions hit.

    According to final year national accounts from the Central Statistics Office, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.4 per cent in the year. This is ahead of a projection from the European Commission in February, which forecast growth of 3 per cent for the Irish economy for 2020. Ireland was the only European Union economy to post positive growth last year, with an average contraction across the EU of 6.8 per cent. GDP fell by 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020.

    Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said that the outturn was “remarkable”, given international comparisons, and original economic expectations when the pandemic first hit in March 2020.

    “ This is entirely a result of the growth in exports, up 6.25 per cent growth despite a sharp decline in world demand,” he said, pointing to “extraordinary export growth” in the pharma and ICT sectors, driven by blockbuster immunological drugs, Covid related products, and the shift to home-working.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-shrugs-off-toughest-restrictions-in-eu-to-post-2020-growth-1.4502182

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      Not reported in The Irish Times but Donohoe goes on to say, ““However, as I have said many times, GDP is not the most accurate measure of what is going on in the economy.”

      “Donohoe also pointed to a 9% fall in household consumption to get a better sense “of what is happening on the ground.””

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      As the Yahoo article indicates, those pharmaceutical and tech multinationals that have seen growth in exports employ 12% of the Irish workforce.

      The GDP growth is genuine, even if some cannot stomach it.

      Domestic consumption is down because people have not been out buying stuff. But the GDP growth is genuine.

      Hardly surprising for industries that were by their nature well positioned to export during c 19.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        No, the GDP growth is distorted, not a genuine reflection of the state of the Irish economy. That is in fact the whole point on the Yahoo article.

        “…as Ireland ekes out Europe-leading GDP growth against a coronavirus tide of 25 percent unemployment and a retail shutdown, Honohan again questions how much of that is truly domestic.

        “In his new Central Bank-published paper — titled “Is Ireland Really the Most Prosperous Country in Europe?” — Honohan offers an emphatic “no.”

        “He poses the question because GDP, the most commonly used measure for economic output, perennially puts Ireland far ahead of European peers.”

        https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-gdp-growth-multinationals-misleading/

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          But yes, it is hardly surprising that pharmaceutical companies that supply c 19 kit and tech companies that can often work from home – 12% of all employment in Ireland – have seen growth.

          Furlough is often for unproductive workers in unprofitable businesses anyway – if UK is anything to go by. No one is saying that multinationals cannot distort GDP but that does not mean that GDP cannot grow as it has.

          > “But it added that the “true” jobless rate is lower than that as one-third of Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) recipients are full-time students, who would not normally be classified as unemployed.

          Excluding all those on the PUP, the CSO said that 5.8% of the workforce were registered as unemployed for the third successive month.

          https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0303/1200611-cso-unemployment-figures/

          • Harry McGibbs says:

            GDP is any event a very flawed metric that ignores debt. According to Tim Morgan’s SEEDS analysis, Ireland is the riskiest economy on the entire planet:

            “…89% of all “growth” reported in Ireland since 2007 has been nothing more substantial than the effect of pouring cheap credit into the system, helped, too, by the “leprechaun economics” recalibration of GDP which took place in 2015.”

            https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2019/02/18/147-primed-to-detonate/

            • I hadn’t noticed Tim Morgan’s analyses of Ireland. I have mentioned previously that my former employer (now called Willis Towers Watson) is domiciled in Ireland for tax purposes.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Most economies are living on easy debt since 2008, no massive surprise there. GDP growth has continued however, debt has always been a plank of capitalism.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Yes, but Tim Morgan is making the point that even for this era of unprecedented debt accrual, Ireland is an extreme case both in the amount of debt taken on and the efficacy of that debt in offsetting declining prosperity:

              “…aggregate prosperity in Ireland now is only fractionally (2%) higher than it was in 2007, even though population numbers have grown by 10%.

              “The results of this process, where Ireland is concerned, have been that personal prosperity has declined by 7% since 2007, whilst debt per person has risen by 78%.”

  30. hillcountry says:

    Excerpt:

    North of Denver, Suncor sought a hydrogen cyanide emissions limit of 12.8 tons per year, well above what the refinery thought its actual emissions were. Both state regulators and the EPA refused to correct this. Later, Suncor discovered that it was violating even that 12.8 ton per year limit. In response, it just turned around and asked the state for an even higher limit—19.9 tons per year.

    In Houston, Valero initially sought to be allowed to emit a whopping 512 tons per year—Valero’s actual hydrogen cyanide emissions are reported to be 49 tons per year. After community members called out the extreme proposal, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) is now considering allowing Valero to emit 196 tons per year – lower than Valero’s original request, but approximately four times Valero’s reported emissions.

    https://earthjustice.org/from-the-experts/2019-may/epa-must-protect-communities-from-hydrogen-cyanide-exposure#:~:text=Hydrogen%20cyanide%2C%20or%20HCN%2C%20is%20a%20toxic%20air,cyanide%20pollution%20from%20refineries%20is%20poisoning%20communities%20nationwide.

    One has to wonder how long these increased emission levels have been needed, in light of the fact that the symptoms of HCN toxicity are virtually identical to those of Covid-19

    • The key thing that is missing is this:

      Hydrogen cyanide, or HCN, is a toxic air pollutant emitted by petroleum refineries. HCN is a colorless gas that may smell like bitter almonds, old sneakers, or nothing at all.

      The other point that is important is that oil prices have been low for quite a few years. This has led to a cutback in investments of all kinds. All refineries can do is as little as possible in maintaining current facilities. They can’t afford the upgrades needed, I would expect. The government has put all of its money behind so-called clean energy. It certainly can’t help.

  31. hillcountry says:

    https://earthjustice.org/from-the-experts/2019-may/epa-must-protect-communities-from-hydrogen-cyanide-exposure#:~:text=Hydrogen%20cyanide%2C%20or%20HCN%2C%20is%20a%20toxic%20air,cyanide%20pollution%20from%20refineries%20is%20poisoning%20communities%20nationwide.

    I have noticed press releases like the following will mention various pollutants from refineries and chemical plants, even benzene, but rarely do they mention hydrogen cyanide. It seems like HCN is the third-rail of poisons. It would be the first on my list to mention (along with benzene, of course)

    https://www.desmogblog.com/2021/02/23/environmentalists-sound-alarm-over-texas-refineries-release-pollution

    It’s spooky that the symptoms of Covid-19 are virtually identical to those of HCN toxicity.

  32. Gerard d'Olivat says:

    Bolsonaro and the Tveberg dilemma.

    1. Bolsonaro the president of Brazil fired the CEO of Petrobas.
    His resignation came after a conflict with the president over energy price increases.
    In particular, fears that diesel price increases would cause protests led Bolsonaro to oppose a price increase by Petrobras under Castello Blanco. He decided to do so after the state oil company raised diesel prices by 15% in recent weeks. Bolsonaro replaced the Ceo with former Defense Minister Joaquim Sliva e Luna.

    2.The truck drivers’ strikes of 2018 that paralyzed Brazil for a week are still fresh in the memory. The main roads in the country were blocked. Hundreds of factories in the south of the country, where almost all Brazilian ethanol is produced, were shut down for lack of fuel. Meat producers say 70 million chickens perished due to lack of feed. The strike brought much of Brazil to a standstill, with lines at gas stations, empty airports and empty shelves in supermarkets.

    3 The fired CEO warns against state intervention to keep fuel prices artificially low “If you want to have a market economy, you have to have a market price. If you are going to keep the price artificially low then there are many consequences, some predictable and some unpredictable, but all negative.” He is referring to Petrobas’ 2019 slogan “mind the gap,” intended to close the performance gap with other oil and gas companies. By the way, the country has a long history of state intervention in the oil industry. Petrobras was on the verge of filing for bankruptcy under former President Dilma Rousseff, who lowered fuel prices and got the sector into trouble.

    4. The resignation of the CEO and after President Jair Bolsonaro promised to take steps to lower electricity prices immediately translated into a drop in value of about 20% of Petrobas shares ($13 billion). This also had a negative effect on the Brazilian currency, which fell in value by 2 percent. Currently, Brazil pegs its oil to international prices, but since the state has a 36.8% stake in Petrobras, and 50.5% of the voting rights, Bolsonaro holds the cards on fuel prices. Because he also threatened to intervene in high electricity prices. Those prices are expected to rise by 13% this year, according to the Energy Regulator Aneel. Again, the market reacted immediately.
    Shares in Brazil’s largest energy companies lost 6.1%, while shares in private companies CPFL Energia SA and Energisa fell 6.5% and 5.5% respectively.

    5. Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist politician, stated “Just as I said they wanted to bring me down in the pandemic by shutting down the whole economy, they have now decided to attack me through energy prices,” he told supporters. With general elections looming in 2022, Bolsonaro is trying to win the support of key populations. A reduction in fuel costs could have a major impact on thousands of truck drivers, who are protesting rising fuel costs.

    6. Intervention in the energy sector could discourage foreign investment in a country already on the brink of financial ruin. Whether state interventions in energy prices will help in this regard remains to be seen. “If Bolsonaro interferes with electricity prices, it’s probably game over for his ability to attract foreign capital,” Castello Blanco had won national and international support for Petrobras by reducing the company’s debt, pushing for greater independence and making it attractive to growing oil markets such as India.

    • Thanks very much for all of your comments about the situation in Mexico.

      The problems there have a long history, based on what I have seen. Back when oil prices were high, it was possible to tax oil profits at a high level. But both oil production and oil prices both fell. The government was terribly dependent on the benefits the oil companies provided. For many years, companies have not been able to do the reinvestment needed. Refineries in particular have been neglected. Meddling with the market price in the last few years has been the latest round.

      When I went to an energy-related conference in 2019, a representative from Mexico told us about how bad things were in Mexico. (Not in a presentation; in talking to him face to face.) I think he was worried about the situation progressing to a Venezuela situation. I imagine concerns along this line were behind Trump wanting to build a wall between the US and Mexico. People who were not aware of this concern thought that Trump was crazy.

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘Shortages Of Everything’: Companies Say COVID-19 Has Caused Supply Chain Breakdowns

    From lawnmowers to refrigerators, there are supply chain problems at companies all around the world.

    George Washington Toma TV & Appliance, Inc., in Weymouth has been around for years. But never have they gone through a period like they are experiencing now during the coronavirus pandemic.

    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/04/massachusetts-supply-chain-problems-covid-19/

    Leak:

    – Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.

    • Rodster says:

      The semiconductor industry has been hit really hard. There have been shortages which has affected every major tech company including AMD, Nvidia, Apple just to name a few as well as the automotive industry. Especially electric vehicles which require many electronic components to build those vehicles.

      People will truly take notice when they begin to feel food shortages. All because of a flu/virus with a kill rate of approx 0.030%. The Spanish Flu had a kill rate of 3%. Ah, gotta love control demolition courtesy of the Eld.ers

      • VFatalis says:

        The time was ripe for collapse anyways. Covid only hastened it a little.

        • Or, the COVID response couldn’t have been what it was, if the economy weren’t ripe for collapse.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Or Covid is what you do when you realize collapse is imminent… and you need 1. an excuse to put the global economy on ice to 2. prepare the plan to kill 8B people in a compassionate way.

      • Nehemiah says:

        If you think this is a “flu” virus, then you are not an informed source of information. “Kill rates” (not a medical term because it is too ambiguous), IF you mean fatality rates among everyone who gets infected, is hard to estimate because most countries don’t have accurate data on how many have been infected. The few countries that do have accurate data (such as Iceland) also have outstanding and early treatment programs that keep death rates below average in those countries.

        Case fatality rate (deaths among those who have actually beeen diagnosed, and in most countries those tend to be the more severe cases) are about 2.2%, but depending on the medical system in question, this number tends to vary between 1 and 4% depending on country, and it was much higher (into the double digits) early in the pandemic before we had any idea how to treat it.

        You also have to look at how rapidly it can spread when no precautions are taken, since the more people who get infected, the more people will die. Covid/Wuhan is much more contagious than the typical flu, and there are fewer people with a degree of pre-existing resistance because it is a new virus in a virgin population, whereas the flu has been around since at least the late 19th century, and perhaps much longer.

        And then there are incidental deaths caused indirectly by covid. For example, if you do nothing and the hospitals get overwhelmed, they will have to turn away people with other problems who require urgent care.

        This pandemic has already killed a few hundred thousand just in the US, and probably millions when the whole world is considered. Sure, it’s not the Spanish flu, but is that really your threshold–if any pandemic is less lethal than the Spanish flu (the worst killer since the Black Death), just let ‘er rip? Most people would not consider that to be a reasonable benchmark.

        • Yes, at top wave peaks some of the intensive care units were briefly logging xy% (~50% death rate) albeit as you explained this is within a sub group of a subgroup of the worst cases brought in from large pop areas.. The thing is real.

        • Rodster says:

          “Sure, it’s not the Spanish flu, but is that really your threshold–if any pandemic is less lethal than the Spanish flu (the worst killer since the Black Death), just let ‘er rip?”

          No!

          My threshold is that this is all “mental intercourse” by those running the narrative. Covid is no where near the killer monster it’s made out to be. Those are just the facts but those pushing the levers on society want to amp up the fear, panic and hysteria.

          As i’ve said many times we are ALL DEAD regardless if Covid gets or not and there is a much greater chance something else will get us before Covid does.

          So if you want to believe the narrative then go ahead and take your vaccine jabs and don’t forget wearing your double face masks and face shield.

          I’ll take my chances with this nothing burger flu/virus.

        • Brian says:

          not to mention that we are looking at the Spanish Flu in the past so all the data is in. Most of the deaths were after it mutated in the second year. Covid is mutating also and who knows how lethal it will be or not be until all the data is in.

    • hillcountry says:

      They’re seeing some ripple-effects at the Lordstown, Ohio battery-factory under construction; a collaborative effort of GM and LG-Chem of South Korea. Not going well at all from what I hear. Similar to some of the challenges faced by the greenfield project in Huntsville for Toyota over the last couple of years.

    • This is an important article, I believe. When I first saw it, I was thinking it referred to New Zealand, but it is really a world issue. It represents a big part of what makes the world economy fall apart.

      We recently saw reports that productivity has taken a big step downward. This report says,

      ““Men and women, working shoulder to shoulder, pre-COVID, were able to produce literally twice the product that they are able to produce now,” Stern said. ”

      Can this be fixed? Can it be fixed simply by adding more debt? Once the system is “gummed up,” it is hard to fix it. Now there is less oil to make it flow smoothly. Things seem unlikely to go well.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Try searching – shortages supply chain — there are a LOT of results.

        Perhaps this is part of the CEP?

    • geno mir says:

      The Canadian leak is turning to very accurate prediction is a weird surrealistic way. What a time to be alive 🙂

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Leak: – Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.”

      oh wow, someone is predicting the past!

      this was ongoing in Q1 and Q2 of 2020.

  34. Fred says:

    Haven’t commented on here for a while. Interesting to see how the tone has changed. Nobody seems to take COVID seriously any longer. You’re all very naughty boys and girls for not following the narrative.

    Somehow I acquired immunity against all the BS (how does that work?) and serendipitously bump into like-minded people regularly. I remember it all starting with a video on 9/11 (2 planes, 3 buildings, great job!)

    It gets really strange interacting with ‘normals’ now. The mind control is amazing, with intelligent people just under the spell. Wind and EVs will save us, get vaccinated. I’ve given up debating anything – completely pointless.

    Anyway http://www.consciousnessofsheep.co.uk is good read too.

    • ssincoski says:

      Always enjoy the updates from Tim Watkins even though I am not in the UK.

    • Xabier says:

      So naughty we should be spanked.

      I neither greatly pity nor try to enlighten those who are caught up in the propaganda narrative, as by now if they had been paying attention they would have grasped what is going on – lack of bodies in the streets should have alerted them……

      But, if I’m fond of someone, I do try to put them off the ‘vaccines’, and can feel that I have at least tried to some good.

    • Thanks for stopping by. The conversation gradually evolves, as different topics take priority.

    • Kowalainen says:

      I don’t see the problem. They want it, they get it. As long as there is no force involved. It’s not as if the Internet, skepticism and critical thinking is a new thing under the sun.

      Vaxx passports is the best thing since sliced bread. Even though I’d surely enjoy some time spent in Japan. But whatever, my hypocrisy-o-meter will not move due to this.

  35. Xabier says:

    Will horrid Big Mother Jacinda be able to pull one of her concerned faces, and then carry on with the orders of the globalists?

  36. MG says:

    The Sputnik V imported into Slovakia is undergoing various tests, including quality checks of the delivered batches:

    https://presov.korzar.sme.sk/c/22610395/sputnik-v-skladuju-v-sarisskych-michalanoch-zacali-s-jeho-testovanim.html?ref=trz

    Belarus starts the production of Sputnik V:

    https://www.belarus.by/en/business/business-news/belarus-manufactures-first-validation-batches-of-russias-sputnik-v-vaccine_i_0000126296.html

    “Belarus became the first country outside Russia to officially authorize Sputnik V. The registration certificate for the vaccine was issued on 21 December 2020. In October 2020, Belarus became the first country outside Russia to start clinical trials of the vaccine. Volunteers were vaccinated in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial in eight designated healthcare facilities. The first batch of Sputnik V was delivered to Belarus at the end of December 2020.”

    • Quality checks! Great idea.

    • Nehemiah says:

      Is this the one that uses the dead (deactivated, whatever you want to call it, let’s not quibble over the technical question of whether viruses meet the official definition of living organisms or not)–so does this vaccine use the dead virus, or is that another one I’m thinking of? If I decided to accept one, I would very much prefer one that used the dead virus.

  37. Harry McGibbs says:

    “For the first time ever the debt of eurozone countries will this year likely become equal to their combined wealth, the EU’s economy chief said on Wednesday.

    “The 100% debt-to-GDP ratio will be the legacy of the huge borrowing undertaken to cushion the impact of the coronavirus lockdowns.”

    https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/03/eurozone-s-rising-debt-likely-to-equal-its-wealth-for-first-time-says-eu-s-gentiloni

    • Xabier says:

      Equal to combined illusory ‘wealth’. Strip out excessive asset valuations and what in reality is the wealth of Europe?

      Oh well, the ice is getting ever thinner, but let’s have one more spin skating on it.

      • I agree. The wealth of Europe is mostly illusory.

        • Xabier says:

          The most ridiculous thing is when politicians and CB’s point to the property mega-bubble (inflated say 6 x since 2000 as here) as an indication of national wealth, and lament that not enough is being done to ‘unlock it’. They will found the chest empty if they do!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The silver lining to what is coming is the moment when all these smug coddled mutherf789ers… with their children in $50,000/year private primary schools…. who struggle to get by on 500k a year…

          Who ridicule anyone who suggests their gravy train is about to end (there are oil gluts!! how can you think the oil is running out!!! idi ot!!!)…. realize that the gravy train has indeed ended…

          That moment will be pretty much universal — because once one part of the financial system breaks the entire world will unravel (see 2008)…. and they will quickly see the CBs are out of bullets and unable to stop the cascading collapse.

          Millions of these people suddenly being thrown into the despair and desperation of what every person living in the 3rd world … feels .. every single…. day — of their lives.

          I live for that moment.

          • Yep, kind of illustrated nicely on that Hunter Bi-Xiden revealing leak as the family-clan was “struggling” on mere few dozens mega buck “dark” budget inflows where he served as the designated bagman..

            There are obviously more nuanced levels slightly bellow and bit above them in terms of these enabling upper upper middle classes.

          • Rodster says:

            “That moment will be pretty much universal — because once one part of the financial system breaks the entire world will unravel (see 2008)”

            Ditto !

            I remember when Cyprus and Greece destabilized the system and made it wobble. Those were two small countries. Imagine when the US defaults, or maybe France, Great Britain, or the EU. It’s not out of the question that it could be China or Russia although they both have some buffers.

            The red flashing warning signs should be the trillions of dollars of new debt created out of thin air just to keep the system from imploding. That day will come when the house of cards comes crashing down.

        • Well, it depends where you zoom in..

          Some argue the banking cartel true owners reside there (exclusively).. the US, Gulfies and Japan elites being sidekicks at best..

    • Nehemiah says:

      Debt=100% or more of GDP in every major economy=long term global economic stagnation, here we come! Hopefully, our aging populations can pay the debt down from their social security and pension incomes while our energy supplies start falling.

  38. Harry McGibbs says:

    “By Warren Buffett’s criteria, current stock prices are their most overvalued at least since World War II.

    “The seemingly relentless rise of the stock market coincides with central-bank balance sheets that have continued to balloon since the Great Financial Crisis. While the major central banks generally do not target stock-market levels directly, a goal of their policies has been to push financial markets towards riskier investments, which, of course, include stocks.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/the-mother-of-all-stock-market-bubbles/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “‘The pandemic ripped a hole in an already deflating bubble’… Central bankers’ ability to deal with the consequences of their actions has been severely diminished, according to Sanjeev Lakhanpal, partner at systematic fund manager Wimmer Horizon…

      “He argues that all this bad behaviour – spending without producing, borrowing without any savings – will soon come home to roost.”

      https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/the-pandemic-ripped-a-hole-in-an-already-deflating-bubble/a1473581

      • Robert Firth says:

        “And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
        When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
        As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
        The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!”

        Just over 101 years old. And rapidly coming true.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Harry, honest question, no sarcasm.

      What could an Am citizen purchase with those dollars in WWII? What happened to the overall stock market from the price during WWII? Rough guess, a buying opportunity, a way to become very wealthy.

      I am a believer and follower in Buffett, but wealth has changed in the past twenty or so years, electronic wealth is information, currently Buffett is no longer number two in wealth, time will tell.

      Buffett also recommended a book, “The Death of Money” some years back. Is the market relative to oil up that much?

      All the best,

      Dennis L.

  39. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Texas electricity market faces “insurmountable distress” as more gas and service bills come due, power industry officials said on Thursday at a hearing into financial fallout from the state’s February blackout…

    ““The market is facing a financial crisis and it’s a very severe financial crisis,” Catherine Webking, executive director of an industry lobby group told state lawmakers at a hearing in Austin on Thursday.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-texas-power-crisis/texas-electric-industry-financial-crisis-to-grow-as-more-costs-surface-idUKKBN2AW2TZ

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “New York City rents have fallen more last year than they did during the Great Recession across all boroughs, driven by the pandemic, according to StreetEasy’s November 2020 Market Reports. And 2021 will also be a “long road to recovery.”

      “The report notes that Manhattan rents dropped the most out of the three boroughs analyzed — falling a whopping 12.7% year over year.”

      https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/economy/new-york-city-rent-falls-great-recession-covid/

      • Robert Firth says:

        How soon until we rename Manhattan “Nuevo Machu Picchu”?

        “My name is Andrew Cuomo, Governor of Governors;
        Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair.”

      • Dennis L. says:

        Are the rents lower than 2008? Things fluctuate, New York city is there for a reason, location and that will not change. They have water, water from upstate NY which was so pure it did not require filtration.

        Dennis L.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Thank you, Dennis, a fair point, and one supported by history. But even cities in the best locations decline, if they forget the reason they are there; and that, I feel, New York City has done. It is no longer primarily a port and a centre of trade; it has become a parasitic “vampire squid”.

          Tyre was once a great trading city; where is it now? Tartessos was once a major exporter of quality goods from Iberia; it is now a salt marsh. Petra was a rich staging post athwart two major trade routes; it is now an abandoned desert tourist attraction.

          Sic transit gloria mundi.

    • The Texas problem seems to spread and spread.

  40. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Across the world, protests have erupted due to a variety of reasons, including many demonstrations intended to voice opposition to national policy or change in government…

    “There has been an increase in protests, both here in the US and around the world,” said Shanna Kirschner, assistant professor and chair of the political science department and affiliated faculty in international studies…

    “Kirschner thinks that the world is currently in a wave of protests that are driven by inequality, political discontent and climate and environmental grievances.

    ““People were more likely to show up to protests unrelated to the pandemic if they had been experiencing economic hardship,” Kirschner said. “Because they are just mad, they want to go protest.””

    [Worth remembering that there was a huge uptick in civil unrest *before* the pandemic in 2019 with 47 jurisdictions around the world experiencing large-scale protests].

    https://alleghenycampus.com/19540/international-2/wave-of-global-protests-why-now/

    • The issue is that they are “just mad.” They will protest almost anything. If conditions get worse, we will have more protests. Warm weather also seems to help protests along.

      • Nehemiah says:

        @Gail, So does millions of dollars in grants by corporate oligarchs with a strong desire to virtue signal. Very few of these protests are spontaneous.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Nehemiah, I agree.
          I am actually quite surprised how few protests are in the world.

          This matches historical studies that show people revolt when their standards of living are increasing, not decreasing.

          So we might get increase in violence and crime but not so many real protests.

          On the other hand, getting paid to go to some oligarch’s protest might be a job with a future.

    • Robert Firth says:

      [Worth remembering that there was a huge uptick in civil unrest *before* the pandemic in 2019 with 47 jurisdictions around the world experiencing large-scale protests].

      Hence the pandemic.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Robert, as a percentage of the population, not much. In the Cities if 10,000 protested, that is .2941 percent of the metropolitan population.

        From what I have seen in the cities, a neighborhood was destroyed, the business are gone, the people without services, hard to walk far on an empty stomach.

        In the US, e.g. San Francisco, Walgreens or maybe CVS is closing secondary to shoplifting. Irony is without police, shoplifters over lift, stores close, income of lifters drastically declines.

        Out of the populations, not that many people seem to be protesting and nor for very long.

        Dennis L.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Dennis, I agree with your points about the US protests, but perhaps that was because they had no aim in view, other than the traditional aim of the internal barbarians: to recreate the jungle from which they had foolishly been rescued.

          But given an aim, not many people are needed. The French Revolution pivoted on just 47 votes in the Estates General; the Petrograd Soviet, the harbinger of the Russian revolution, began with a strike of less than 200 workers. Yes, there are tipping points in history, where the success or failure of a small band of people affected the entire destiny of the world.

          Sir Edward Shepherd Creasy identifies the Battle of Marathon as just such a point, for the decision by the Greek armies to prepare for battle was decided by one vote of one man. And upon that vote, the future of our civilisation depended.

  41. Lastcall says:

    NZ is in a housing frenzy; everything is sold 3 x over!!

    Is it;
    The music is about to stop and there are far fewer chairs than sheople think….?
    Or….. Its not over until the fat lady sings; but she’s warming up …?
    Or …The centre can’t hold etc etc?

    Perhaps…

    The fat lady can’t hold the centre and is trying to find a seat before the music stops?

    PS Can I say ‘Fat lady’ these days or will the wokesters wake up?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      the US housing market is also remaining crayzzy high.

      interest rates are near zero, so mortgage rates are also very low.

      all facets of the endgame, where interest rates can’t rise much or else things fall apart, so asset prices remain overly high.

      also flight from eroding cities, so demand is pushed higher, until those who have the means have all moved.

      I see no indication of any slowdown to these processes, so I suspect this will continue into 2021.

      She’s gonna sing someday, but not yet.

      QBAU tonight, Fat Lady!

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “into 2022” of course.

      • Dennis L. says:

        It would be interesting to average the decline in large city housing values with those in the suburbs. Location, location, prices are probably fairly constant, increasing for areas with remaining good services.

        My guess, it is the surrounding society which determines values.

        Dennis L.

    • Xabier says:

      Maybe one could get away with ‘the fat white supremacist’: male opera singers have often been huge, after all.

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Bit of a slow day so I thought I might have a bit of fun…. so I decided to rock and mock:

    Will COVID-19 vaccines be safe?

    COVID-19 vaccines are being held to the same high safety standards as all vaccines. They will not be given approval for use in New Zealand until sufficient data on both safety and on how well the vaccine works (efficacy) have been extensively reviewed. All clinical trials involve an independent safety monitoring committee that oversee safety and decide if it is safe to continue should adverse events arise, albeit coincidentally. Furthermore, internationally, tens of thousands of participants were enrolled in each Phase 3 trial and mass vaccination campaigns involving millions of people are currently underway. Safety information on those who have been vaccinated is being carefully collected and closely monitored. We can be confident that no shortcuts with regards to safety have been taken even though these vaccines have seemingly been produced quickly (see more below).

    Is it true that they are skipping steps to make a vaccine more quickly?

    No. It is true that COVID-19 vaccines have been produced faster than previous vaccines, but this is not because steps are being skipped. Instead, a combination of increased funding, international collaboration and removing barriers that usually slow progress (i.e. by doing some of the processes at the same time rather than one after the other) has sped up progress. Further information on this topic is available here.

    https://www.immune.org.nz/covid-19-vaccines

    I was told by the good people behind that (Auckland U) that the Ministry of Health provided those lies about the safety of vaccines.

    Medsafe is the department responsible for determine if vaccines are safe https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/other/contact.asp Of course the contact tel goes to voice mail (even after calling 20x it’s the same result)…. left my tel number… let’s see if they get back to me.

    So… I went to the top – the minister in charge of the vaccine rollout https://www.beehive.govt.nz/minister/hon-chris-hipkins Spoke to his gal… who passed me to her call… who when I asked if they had any long term studies re side effects told me to call Medsafe…

    Don’t want to call Medsafe because nobody answers so I am calling you. So let’s rephrase this … obviously there are no long term studies because there is no long term…. has the Minister thought to ask Medsafe about this before recommending that 5M of us get the vaccine? (I’m thinking… this could be a great scene for Idiocracy 2.0!!!)….

    Of course she won’t answer that… and tells me to write a letter to the Minister and if he or someone in the team determines your letter is worth answering they will get back to you. To which I responded… it feels like I am in China… the great emperor will determine if I am worthy of a response! Well you are not in China said she…

    Sensing she was about to hang up the phone — I rapidly asked why they were recommending 5M people take an untested experimental vaccine — are you trying to kill them? Oh … and is this why John Key quit — because he knew this was coming and preferred not to be involved?

    Crazy man alert – crazy man alert!!! Must hang up the phone now…. She mumbled something about how she was not going to continue to listen to this and shut me down and scurried back into the Beehive like a good little More ON.

    What I find so bizarre is that my initial question was quite sensible… it was a trick question though… obviously you do not have because it is impossible to have any long term studies…

    UNLESS …. she has a time machine … and has been to the future and saw that nobody died from the covid vaccine…. yes… that may have been what she was thinking when she refused the bait (the time machine is top secret and she knows what would happen if she were to leak that…)

    I did speak to a nurse on some covid hotline and she had no answers to this … but at least she said ‘I share some of your concerns’…

    Obviously nobody is going to answer this question … or at best they will tell me they believe it’s worth taking the risks because Covid is such a deadly disease…

    It’s so much fun to run these Moreons around in circles… they get so frustrated… angry … I hope I ruined her weekend 🙂

    I forgot to mention my 1000IQ… actually it’s only about 800 cuz I have not yet had afternoon coffee and skipped my 20 minute IQ Enhancement Nap….

    Coffee time!!!

    • Bobby says:

      Hi Eddy1000, can you please give verification of your current augmented IQ status and which (NZ) brands of coffee are most effective at ascending your cognitive capabilities to such astronomical heights?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Let me share my secret!

        Previously my go to was Allpress…. BUT I was in Dunedin recently and discovered this https://www.facebook.com/mazagrancafe/ (check out the video)

        ‘Mystery Blend’ – for those in pursuit of Super Genius Status.

        • Bobby says:

          Thank you for your honesty Eddy, I will tell M Bobby. Her IQ is only 232, I’m sure it’s fallen since hooking up with me, or each time Friday rolls around, so this should compensate.

          PS I’m convinced She moves rocks with her mind , but she hasn’t dropped any on me yet 😂

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Don’t forget to temper this with some boozy nights from time to time .. to smash down the IQ … otherwise you will become insufferably arrogant and dismissive of MORE ONs… which has its good and bad…

            I highly recommend this product https://www.whiskygalore.co.nz/products/nikka-taketsuru-pure-malt-43 but as you can see it is sold out… and is sold out on every website in NZ it seems… (F789!) And telling everyone here is only going to exacerbate an already critical problem but oh well.

            Which leaves me with an IQ that is currently expanding and completely out of control. I’m in overdrive churning out PHD thesis papers on everything from the cerebral deficiencies that prevent dogs from talking (and driving) to the economic impact of covid on NZ turtle farmers….

            And to top things off … it’s going to rain again tomorrow.

        • Yorchichan says:

          #NOVACCINENOCAFFEINE ?

          Unless they specialise in decaffeinated for the unvaccinated, does not sound like the kind of cafe you personally would want to frequent.

      • Nehemiah says:

        Maybe Fast Eddy has gotten a hold of the Krels’ IQ boosting machine featured in the 1956 sci fi classic “Forbidden Planet.”
        http://www.e357.net/beingernest/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Brain_Booster_Forbidden_Planet_1956.png

        • Robert Firth says:

          Great science fiction movie; it’s in my library. But I hope FE doesn’t get shredded by his own “Monster from the Id”.

          My favourite scene, though, is the one inside the computer: “eight thousand cubic miles of klystron relays”. Not exactly a laptop.

    • Xabier says:

      That’s the lie being promulgated by the BBC:.

      ‘No it’s not rushed and therefore possibly unsafe, we just removed the tiresome ‘barriers’ that made vaccine trials so slow in the past by doing all the steps simultaneously, so we could give you the Gift of Hope and Life as soon as possible!’

      For trusting people who don’t know that vaccine development has always been painfully slow because they are inherently potentially very dangerous indeed it sounds convincing enough.

      • Nehemiah says:

        Here’s the thing though: since they are injecting you with a portion of the virus, I don’t see how one can argue that the vaccine is dangerous if you believe the virus itself is nothing to worry about.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Coffee time!!!

      Never found NZ coffee that good—–
      But one needed something in the morning, before fly fishing.
      Don’t get me wrong- love the place.

    • JMS says:

      Well done, FE!
      OTOH wouldn’t be better to stay low in times like these? Hell, a thing i’m absolutely sure is that I would hate to pass my last months in a gestapo dungeon, when there’s much more pleasant ways to die.

      I can only say: they will NEVER take me alive!! 🪒

      https://images.app.goo.gl/jbacJEVZpLr4XDs56

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Don’t think it matters… they will have a dbase of all those who decline the jab… and probably a room waiting in the ‘CovIDIOT’ 2 star quarantine facility with unlimited pig slop and this on an endless loop:

        https://youtu.be/wB9RSffVys4

        I wonder if I say to the keepers ‘I know what you guys are up to and while I admire the Elders for their willingness and effort to provide 8B with the CEP…. it just creeps me out to take a lethal injection .. is there any chance you might make an exception and provide me with a Plan B in the form of a jar of Oxycontin?’

  43. Artleads says:

    resistance in the third world

    City of Refuge End Times Prophetic Ministries, St. Ann’s Bay, Jamaica

  44. New Zealand – Longer lockdowns, $30b wage subsidy, and food rationing in Covid worst-case scenario

    Longer lockdowns, a $30 billion six-month wage subsidy, rationing food, closing supermarkets and pharmacies, and forcing companies to stop exporting goods overseas were all considered as part of the Government’s “worst-case scenario” Covid response, released to Stuff under the Official Information Act and revealed here for the first time.

    On April 7, 2020, New Zealand reached a milestone. With 54 new cases and 65 recoveries, the number of recovered cases exceeded the number of new cases for the first time since lockdown began

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the result suggested the lockdown was working. We now know she was right.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300242988/longer-lockdowns-30b-wage-subsidy-and-food-rationing-in-covid-worstcase-scenario?fbclid=IwAR0u81gb3D6qh9jczxu9aP-QMJP_ihYRdMeCHzhhSnvSyvbBgNraV0fnahs

    • The analysis referred to in this article assumed that the big problem would be COVID raging out of control. In fact, It seems to me from the articles I found (listed in another comment) that the country is suffering from the unreasonable trade rules put in effect. It already had the problem of being a small and distant player in the world economy. By putting in unreasonable rules for flights and ships coming to the islands, the economy is now losing the ships it needs to keep up unemployment. The economy seems to be spiraling downward for the opposite reason from what the early concern was.

      • Bobby says:

        Yes, we have stockpiles of lumber sitting idle in our ports, in the middle of a housing crisis. Harvesting the 2021 vintage now too, Sure we can make wine barrels from the wood laying about in lieu of missing shipping containers….and ships. Rumour is we soon won’t be able to refine imported oil here either, the life juice of the world economy is not reaching the remote Shakey Isle Of Sheep-iwi. The NZ government didn’t get the memo, that it’s not a race to the bottom or to become Easter Island Mark 2.
        Can’t cure an endemic shortsighted greedvirus with pretent/empathy, specially if no thinks it’s a disease.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        M Fast and I just popped into Altitude pub for a beer — afterwards we did a swing through town — it is DEAD. Almost nobody on the streets… one of the bigger restaurants The Grille … had 3 tables…

        Ferg Burger – a barometer for business activity — had about 10 people waiting outside for their overrated overpriced food.

        Let me post a communication from Johan Giesecke WHO from April 2020:

        ‘Ah, NZ! They are fascinating. I am sure they will manage to stamp out the virus. And then they will have to have a 2-week quarantine for anyone who enters the country for the next 30 years or so. Will do wonders to tourism.’

        Tick tock…

        • Xabier says:

          Stamping Out The Virus – Mankind? Well done,Jacinda

        • Ed says:

          The missus and I will come perfect no obnoxious tourists sign us up.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I would have thought that since The Vaxx protects you from Covid and thus prevents you from spreading Covid that Ardern would be allowing people with the jab to enter….

            But nope… we are locked up tighter than a nun.

            Funny that.

            Get the vaccine – Get the vaccine! You will be able to travel and everything else!!! False promises… (Devil Covid!!!)

            • Xabier says:

              Even worse: the desperate-to-be-vaxxed don’t seem to grasp that they aren’t actually being promised a return to pre-2020 tourism freedoms, just hints and suggestions from politicians.

              It’s just so painfully obvious that they are going to be defrauded of their hopes.

            • Rodster says:

              And the desperate to be vaxxed have no legal recourse if something goes woefully wrong after taking the jabs. Big Pharma has been given a free legal “get out of jail card” if you are physically harmed or die from the jab.

              Welcome to 2021.

        • In the same vein one has to wonder about the tourism industry over-weighted situation among ClubMed / southern EU countries. The tax revenue and income at many places won’t be there again, despite some limited throughput on these digital passports come summer, so it follows this part of the world should be the next prominent UBI incubator, perhaps that’s Mario D.’s mission in IT apart from forming national doomsday unity coalition incl. even EU secessionists, that’s how desperate the situation is progressing as of lately..

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Reducing tourism is good – it conserves oil.

            When you are down to your ‘last tank’… it’s time to stop joyriding.

            • Kowalainen says:

              As for the useless eaters in guvmint.

              MANDATORY VAXXING PROGRAMS!

              Or to be sent home with subsistence UBI. Your choice.

              It’s coming together really nicely I must say.

              Yay! 🤣👍

            • JMS says:

              So the punishment for not complying with the vax mandate would be UBI?
              I’m affraid you are being too optimistic.
              UBI is just a lure for covidiots. Everybody knows it wiil last less than butter in the nose of a dog.
              And then starving will visit the non-compliers. At least this my best guess for now!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              No UBI is not punishment… it’s a means to preventing mass revolts …

              It will allow the CovIDIOTS to be able to continue to purchase food so they can have those 3 meals (and pay for Netflix) that fend off anarchy.

              For those who refuse the jab, it will eventually be permanent lockdown.

            • Rodster says:

              I’ll bet that UBI will only be for those who submit to the jab. No jab, no money for you.

            • Kowalainen says:

              I was mostly thinking of using them for large scale testing of the vaxx. You know, for once a while provide some utility for other people (as guinea pigs). Of course this plan excludes front line workers. Nurses, doctors, surgeons, police officers, etc.

              Ok, skip the UBI, no need to fiddle around the bushes. Sent directly to poverty if they refuse.

              Of course this genius program could be extended to other exciting new ideas that need prompt large scale testing.

              🤣👍

        • Kowalainen says:

          While at it; ask Giesecke how his wife earns a living and how their lucrative business have been going during the pandemic.

          😉

    • Fast Eddy says:

      That’s basically an outline of the plan… very similar to the plan in Canada

      • hillcountry says:

        Fast Eddy: You guys aren’t planning to cut Whole Foods Market off from that fantastic lamb y’all raise, are you?? Hope it doesn’t come to that. We’ll be buying most of ours from White Oak Pastures in Georgia in any case, but always like to help y’all out in your war with Australia. I’ve got a funny picture of John Atkins from back in the day circa 2004, sporting a PETA tee-shirt and a ballcap that said Wish You Were Hair. He’d been gifted the T by PETA’s legal guy at an Animal Compassion meeting at John Mackay’s house outside of Austin, TX. We gave it to the legal guy next time we saw him. What a hoot. Great sense of humor, that man!!

  45. All is Dust says:

    It won’t come as a surprise to many here but Amazon have censored a book written about Covid by Sebastian Rushworth M.D. – someone whose literature I have found to be balanced and credible over the last few months:

    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/03/04/amazon-is-censoring-my-book-about-covid/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And … AND…. after this some people will still believe it’s 95% effective …. hahahahahaha…. gawd … people will believe anything!!!

      Dummmer than rats

    • You can read more of Sebastian Rushworth’s views on his blog.

      https://sebastianrushworth.com

      There is a March 4, 2021 article on Hydroxychloroquine for covid:
      https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/03/04/hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-lifesaving-or-useless/

      He looks at a lot of studies and doesn’t find enough evidence based on studies to date that it really is useful.

      Another article is Lockdowns have killed millions

      …the vast majority of people who have died of lockdown have died in poor countries and been young. This means that the number of years of life lost to lockdown is many times greater than the number of years of life lost to covid-19.

      Another article is Is ivermectin effective against covid?

      He looks in detail at three studies and concludes that they were sufficiently flawed that they didn’t prove any reasonable effect.

      • All is Dust says:

        Just a bit more on Ivermectin, Sebastian’s review of the data:

        “I’m sure you’re all as nerdy as me, and love looking at forest plots. What this one shows is a 78% reduction in the relative risk of dying of covid, if you get treated with ivermectin!

        The result is statistically significant (p-value 0,01). If the result is real, that is pretty damn amazing. That would mean that four out of five covid deaths could be avoided if everyone was treated with ivermectin (potentially together with doxycycline), a dirt cheap generic drug that’s been around for decades, and which we know is safe. It blows all the currently approved drugs for covid out of the water in terms of effect size.”

      • Lorraine Sherman says:

        HCQ and Ivermectin HAD to fail as treatment modalities in order to trigger the “emergency use authorization” for the novel mRNA injections to be approved for the public. If there is any other effective treatment, then no need for an “emergency use authorization” side step, and no need for a new vaccine roll out.

        I believe the NIH has recently reversed its position on Ivermectin due to the huge success of the drug in treating Covid19 patients – pushed hard by Dr. Kory and other front line doctors treating covid patients.

        • Yep, in some jurisdictions used to flirting with some dosage of freedoms (quasi tax – diplomatic / spook heaven) e.g. such as Austria, these alt. drugs are now encouraged in ambulant healthcare and even opening for self medication etc.

          Yet, again hinting at strong correlation in the perennial pecking order in the world.

        • racoon#9.5meg says:

          Spot on!

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        They both are useless, but Hydroxychloroquine is dangerous.

        • All is Dust says:

          I’d argue that Ivermectin, which has found to prevent around 80% of deaths, isn’t useless – but do what you gotta do…

          Just look at the success that the Mexican state of Chiapas has had with Ivermectin compared with surrounding Mexican states.

          I do find this vaccine exceptionalism a little anti-science, but whatever…

            • Chiapas seemed to do much better.

            • Not sure this related fully to this Mexican case (can’t find the weather data), but the early 2020 N Italian one and then further north shows correlation to long lasting overcast conditions. Perhaps genetic profile plays a role as well.. And certainly diet (veg / fruit vs flour), also tobacco; alcohol differentiates (wine vs hard liqueur vs beer etc) .. Physical activity – obesity, plus various long term social stress vectors.

              So, if you map in aggregate all these (weighted) items you might get particular response to given virus strain.

              Hence this is very complicated (as we go through seasons), but some very basic immunity level could be strengthen before hand.

        • racoon#9.5meg says:

          Well ill stick to my apple flavored nectar with half a century of usage with known pharmacology and you stick to your warp speed genetic experimentation agent and we will both be happy.
          I live in a free state. We dont have to put strange unproven things in our bodies to live our lives. Peace.

        • Nehemiah says:

          Dangerous? Hah! Although no drug is perfectly safe and any drug can be abused, HCQ has been used to treat malaria seemingly forever and it is one of the safest drugs around.

          Further, both HCQ and Ivermectin are more more effective against covid when used together.

        • Minority Of One says:

          As usual, a distinct lack of reliable (any) evidence.

          • Nehemiah says:

            HCQ has been on the market since 1955, used by many millions of people around the world for malaria, and more recently for rheumatoid arthritis.

            Quote: “I remember when I was a fellow a paper was published saying Plaquenil [hydroxychloroquine] is safer than aspirin, it lowers lipids, and everyone should be taking it,” recalled Dr. Rosenbaum, professor of inflammatory diseases and chief of the division of arthritis and rheumatic diseases at Oregon Health and Science University, and chief of ophthalmology at the Devers Eye Institute in Portland, Ore.
            BUT
            Dr. Rosenbaum highlighted a major recent study from Kaiser Permanente of Northern California which underscored the retinal hazards of long-term hydroxychloroquine. The retrospective, case-control study included 2,361 Kaiser Permanente patients who used the drug continuously for at least 5 years.
            https://www.mdedge.com/rheumatology/article/97077/rheumatology/new-concerns-rise-over-iatrogenic-hydroxychloroquine?sso=true

            So how risky is this for your eyes? Acc. to:
            https://www.hopkinsarthritis.org/arthritis-info/rheumatoid-arthritis/ra-treatment/#hydroxy
            A period of 2 to 4 months is usual [to get results in rheumatoid arthritis treatment]….Ocular toxicity is exceedingly rare, occurring in only 1 out of 40,000 patients treated at the doses recommended.

            AND FROM:
            https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/hydroxychloroquine
            HCQ has been used safely and regularly during pregnancy….

            BUT, BUT, BUT–HERE’S THE THING! Even these low level risks only show up in people using the drug regularly for months to years. AS USED TO TREAT COVID IN COUNTRIES WHERE THIS IS REGULARLY DONE, HCQ is only administered (in moderate doses) for the first FOUR DAYS after diagnosis! You’ll be fine. Hydroxychloroquine is not chloroquine. It is a safer compound, although I notice that recently the two are sometimes lumped together in order to make HCQ look less safe than it actually is–I suspect to protect big pharma’s profits.

            Also, some designed-to-fail tests in the US administered large doses to hopeless covid patients on respirators and, guess what, it didn’t save them–BUT that is not how HCQ is normally used in the field.

            One more thing. According to:
            https://www.dicardiology.com/article/fda-reports-deaths-and-injuries-use-antimalarial-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-patients
            And then there are other experts, including the rheumatology association and the Lupus Foundation that say ‘look, we have been using this as an outpatient drug fro decades and we have never seen any kind of cardiac problems.’ And that is where we have been meeting some headwinds because some people have concern who say you can use this drug without active EKG monitoring.”

            He noted millions of healthy patients have used these drugs to prevent malaria effectively and there have not been massive numbers of people reporting arrhythmias.
            –End Quote

            BUT REMEMBER: these RA and lupus patients are CHRONIC USERS, yet even then many physicians say the risks are very low, although not low enough to satisfy some. HOWEVER: Covid19 patients, FOUR DAYS. 4 days of moderate HCQ consumption is very unlikely to harm anyone. Remember, it took decades of usage by millions of people before it was finally discovered that it might not really be “safer than aspirin” for long term frequent users.

            Or maybe it is. Frequent long term aspirin consumption, even in low doses, is associated with increased frequency of death and other serious issues, but is it worth the risk to take a moderate dose of aspirin if you are ill, even if you took it for four days in a row? Most people would say that was an extremely low risk. Ditto for HCQ.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Says the guy who’s taking part in an experiment involving a ‘vaccine’ that is not properly tested….

  46. Mall owner Washington Prime Group preparing potential bankruptcy filing as time runs out to avert a default after it skipped an interest payment on its debt. The real estate investment trust, which owns about 100 malls throughout the U.S.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EvqgfjxWgAQ5sr1?format=jpg&name=900×900

    • There seem to be a large number of mall operators in similar shape.

      This article, from December 11, 2020, lists a number of different mall operators:

      ‘Trouble brewing’ for malls, including Brookfield and Simon: S&P Global

      All of these mall groups seemed to be in dreadful condition, adoring to a report by S&P Global

      CBL Properties – Bankrupt before Dec. 11
      Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust – Bankrupt before Dec. 11
      Simon Property Group –
      Brookfield
      Macerich
      Washington Prime Group
      Taubman (merging with Simon)

      So Washington Prime is another one in the group, now going bankrupt. What does one do with all of this property?

      We don’t possibly need so much retail sales space. When these malls go bankrupt, there must be some investors who are hurt. I don’t know who owns the REIT shares. Someone must get hurt in these bankruptcies, I would think.

      • hillcountry says:

        Lloyds of London created a sort of franchisee network of over 30,000 insurers when they saw the tidal-wave of asbestos-liability coming their way years ago. Those all went bankrupt, losing assets including primary residences. A friend’s father was one of them. My friend was living in London and worked with him just prior to reality dawning on some of the early bag-holders. I’d assume the REITs are similarly architectured as circuit-breakers for the Simon Groups of our world.

        I lived in a Simon Group mall in north Austin where the high-end apartments had cheap HVAC flexible-ducts, laden with 10-years of yuck 2-inches deep, upon which lived the various anciently-evolved and highly toxic fungus and molds that cause cytokine-storms in 25% of genetically-susceptible people (h/t Dr. Ritchie Shoemaker). A friend in our complex who became quite ill retained counsel who I serendipitously discovered was actually working for the Simon Group, obviously managing their liability. Her case is still wending its way after 4 years.

        • I understand that Lloyds of London restructured in the mid-1990s. New “Names” have limited liability.
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_of_London

          Lloyd’s of London, besides insuring properties, had a significant amount of funds, collected on insurance policies, to invest. I don’t know whether some of these funds are invested in REIT properties, such as malls. I would expect Lloyd’s of London to be less regulated than most insurers, so it likely could take on riskier investments.

  47. racoon#9.5meg says:

    Got to get the 5G phased arrays up to beam MM length down to the surface!

    https://www.technocracy.news/5g-from-space-20000-satellites-to-blanket-the-earth/

    Ed quit begging for a bone from the NWO. You went to the wrong websites. 🙂 Your social score not adequate. 🙂

    • As bad as these small cell towers might seem from the standpoint of constant exposure to radio frequency (RF) radiation in close proximity to the source, perhaps an even more alarming prospect will be the beaming of millimeter length microwaves at the earth from [Elon Musk’s 12,000] thousands of new communication satellites.

      • Xabier says:

        So, we are pursued by evil scientists with needles; threatened with extinction by robots; and now dodging satellites: who on earth on scripted this? !!!

    • Tim Groves says:

      This looks like an overblown scare story to me. There is already a lot of radiation pouring down on us from the skies, including MM length radiation. How much extra can Elon’s satellite possibly contribute?

      Of course, I could be wrong and we could all be toast!

      But I won’t leave home without my aluminum foil umbrella, just to be on the safe side.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Tim, we are protected from most harmful cosmic radiation by the Van Allen Belts, courtesy of the Earth’s magnetic field. But those Musk satellites will be inside the belts, and therefore far more dangerous.

  48. Fast Eddy says:

    Words of wisdom

    https://youtu.be/DJnKm6ftPu0

    • Kowalainen says:

      My two best friends, pain and suffering are both made from carbon fibers. I expect some pain tomorrow morning.

  49. Pingback: When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally Implode? – 21 Million Bitcoin

  50. Fast Eddy says:

    I remember reading this and thinking … since when does a PM resign at the height of his popularity… and this is a signal that the end if nigh.

    John definitely knew about the CEP… and decided that rather than execute the plan for NZ … he’d spend his final years playing tennis… (or perhaps he’s been in Auckland strip clubs most nights doing blow off of silicon boobs…)

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/prime-minister-john-keys-surprise-resignation-new-zealand-reacts/VKTJG4754OE75RASRFQZSVJMAQ/

    • This is strange. The article says,

      “New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters said of the resignation: “The fact is that the economy is not in the healthy state that the Prime Minister has for so long claimed, and there are other issues which have caused this decision as well.”

      There seem to be a lot of supply chain disruptions hitting New Zealand. Some of these are related to the container problems we have read about elsewhere. A Dec. 23 article is called:

      Why our ships haven’t come in

      Strikes at Australian ports have disrupted shipping schedules. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s strict Covid-19 requirements for ships and crews have also added to timing issues, with increased compliance and cost. This has seen some shipping firms suspending trips to New Zealand, or bypassing the country altogether. . .

      New Zealand has to work hard to balance its number of containers, as a country that exports more than it imports. The lower import volumes have added to this problem, and there is now a 10 percent reduction in the availability of empty containers in New Zealand.

      A Feb 11 article says

      Govt reveals $311m extension to work support programme

      According to the article, the government expanded its job support program to include even more categories of would be workers, as well as extended the time it is in effect. (indirectly because supply chain problems were affecting jobs).

      A February 21, 2021 article says

      As shipping delays continue, NZ Inc looks for alternatives

      The need for shipping lines to keep operating these larger vessels is one reason Levinson says he expects the supply chain volatility to continue even after the pandemic.

      A trend towards these larger ships also has some implications for smaller markets like New Zealand.

      Levinson says there are two theories of how this might play out for us. One is the end of long-distance shipping to smaller markets like our own. . .

      The other theory is larger shipping lines will simply stop servicing countries like New Zealand, leaving a gap for smaller players who might be able to provide a cheaper long-distance service of lower quality.

      • Xabier says:

        Ordering things online here in the UK, I’ve noticed growing gaps in inventory: I’m ready to buy, but they simply don’t have the stock to sell me.

        Couriers tell me that shipping from the EU is really screwed up with goods now delayed for at least 3 months. Asia seems better, with delays of about a month.

        I’m being very careful with orders, keeping them low-value in case a company gos bust after having taken my money.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          “From lawnmowers to refrigerators, there are supply chain problems at companies all around the world…

          “COVID has slammed the brakes on everything, from steel and aluminum production, to electronic control boards.”

          https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/04/massachusetts-supply-chain-problems-covid-19/

        • Dennis L. says:

          Not seeing it in what I purchase, varied items, computer parts, building supplies, etc. are available. Prices are definitely increasing although for computers the processing power seems to be increasing faster than the cost. No apparent delays from Amazon, having a boiler shipped from manufacture(not Amazon), two weeks for delivery, most likely made to order when orderd, no inventory.

          Lex Fridman has an interesting site on YouTube, fellow named Weinstein(guest of Lex’s) has intriguing thoughts in many areas, one of them is use of gage theory in economics – more learning for that one.

          All the best in your efforts,

          Dennis L.

      • Dennis L. says:

        We seem to have an issue of private health vs public health; the Salk vaccine comes to mind.

        Plumbing is probably responsible for the greatest increase in public health, but it has been posited that polio after WWII was secondary to increased hygiene and fewer antibodies produced at an early age in part from mother’s milk.

        We are the product of a world of bacteria, viruses and many other parasites. They allow us to live, for example:

        “In an individual weighing 70kg, the human gut microbiota gathers more than 100 trillion microorganisms and weighs about 200g (equivalent to a medium-sized mango). There are 150/200 times more genes in this individual’s microbiota than in all of their cells put together.” from Google search.

        We as a society are attempting to deterministically pick and chose, it does not appear the biome is structured that way. Life may be a balance between timid and bold. We cannot hide from everything and if we are too bold there is the old pilot parable, “There are old pilots and bold pilots, there are no old, bold pilots.”

        Personally, I shall get the Covid vaccine as I wish to be with people, current choice is J&J which is not an mRNA type. It may be a choice between being part of society and being a lonely, rebel. For me it is a guess, isolation may also remove us from the natural stresses that keep our immune system healthy.

        Dennis L.

        • Xabier says:

          If you can choose the vaccine you’d prefer, and can perhaps start dance classes once more, which you seem to have missed, why not?

          Prolonged, involuntary, isolation is a kind of death in itself and as you say inherently unhealthy.

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