Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post.

Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes, such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs, including:

  • Too much wage disparity
  • Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
  • Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
  • An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
  • Susceptibility to epidemics

Many people have the misimpression that our most important problem will be “running out” of oil. Because of this, they believe that oil prices will rise high if the system is reaching its limits. Since oil prices are not very high, they assume that the problem is far away. Once a person understands what the real issue is, it is (unfortunately) relatively easy to see that the current economy seems to be quite close to collapse.

In this post, I provide images from a recent presentation I gave, together with some comments. A video of the presentation is available on the Uncomfortable Knowledge Hub, here. A PDF of the presentation can be downloaded here:

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4

In some ways, a self-organizing system is analogous to a dome that might be built with a child’s toy building set (Slide 4). New layers of businesses and consumers are always being added, as are new regulations, more or less on top of the prior structure. At the same time, old consumers are dying off and products that are no longer needed are being discontinued. This happens without central direction from anyone. Entrepreneurs see the need for new products and try to satisfy them. Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.

Slide 5

Resources of many kinds are needed for an economy. Harnessing energy of many types is especially important. Early economies burned biomass and used the labor of animals. In recent years, we have added other types of energy, such as fossil fuels and electricity, to supplement our own human energy. Without supplemental energy of various kinds, we would be very limited in the kinds of goods and services that could be produced. Our farming would be limited to digging in the ground with a stick, for example.

The fact that there is almost an equivalence between employees and consumers is very important. If the wages of consumers are high, relative to the prices of the goods and services available, then consumers are able to buy many of those goods and services. As a result, citizens tend to be happy. But if there are too many low paid workers, or people without work at all, consumers are likely to be unhappy because they cannot afford the basic necessities of life.

Slide 6

The problem civilizations are facing is a two-sided problem: (1) Growing population and (2) Resources that often degrade or deplete. As a result, the amount of resources per person falls. If this were carried to the limit, all of us would starve.

Slide 7

As resources deplete and population grows, local leaders can see that problems are on the horizon. At first, adding technology, such as a new dam to provide water to make farms more productive, helps. As more and more technology and other complexity is added, there is less and less “bang for the buck.” We can easily see this in the healthcare field. Early antibiotics had a very big payback; recent medical innovations that help a group of 500 or 1000 people with a particular rare disease can be expected to have a much smaller payback.

A second issue with added complexity is that it increasingly leads to a society of the very wealthy plus many very low paid workers. Joseph Tainter identified the combination of these two issues as leading to collapse in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Slide 8

Françios Roddier is an astrophysicist who writes primarily in French. His book Thermodynamique de l’évolution was published in 2012; it is now available in English as well.

The issue of starving people in Yemen is an issue today. In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world. The world tourism industry is dead; the industry of making fancy clothing for people in rich countries is greatly reduced. People who formerly made a living in these industries in poor countries increasingly find it difficult to earn an adequate living with other available jobs. Rich countries tend to have better safety nets when there are widespread reductions in job-availability.

Slide 9

Businesses often make long lasting goods such as machines to be used in factories or automobiles to be used by consumers. Governments often make long-lasting goods such as paved roads and school buildings. When making these goods, they take some combination of commodities, built machinery, and human labor to make goods and services that people will use for many years into the future. The future value of these goods is hoped to be significantly greater than the value of the inputs used to create these goods and services.

There are at least three reasons that time-shifting devices are needed:

  1. Workers need to be paid as these goods are made.
  2. Businesses need to build factories in advance.
  3. Businesses, governments and individuals are all likely to find the future payments more manageable, even with interest added, than they are as a single payment upfront.

I don’t mention the issue in Slide 9, but once time-shifting devices are created, they become very easy to manipulate. For example, no one knows precisely what the future value of a particular investment will be. Governments, especially, are prone to make investments in unneeded infrastructure, simply to provide jobs for people. We also know that there are diminishing returns to added technology, but stocks of technology companies tend to be valued as if complexity will save the world. Third, interest rate manipulations (lower!) and the offering of debt to those who seem unlikely to be able ever to repay the debt can be used to make the economy of a country appear to be in better shape than it really is. Many of us remember the collapse of the US subprime housing debt bubble in 2008.

Slide 10

The purpose of a financial system is to allocate goods and services. High wages allocate a larger share of the output of an economy to a particular person than low wages. Appreciation in asset values (such as prices of shares of stock, or value of a home or piece of land) also act to increase the share of the goods and services produced by the economy to an individual. Payment of interest, dividends and rents are other ways of allocating goods and services that the economy makes. Governments can print money, but they cannot print goods and services!

As the economy gets more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services. For one thing (not mentioned on Slide 10), as the economy becomes more complex, an increasing share of the goods and services produced by the economy need to go into making all of the intermediate goods that make that industrial economy work. Intermediate goods would include factories, semi-trucks, hydroelectric dams, oil pipelines and other goods and services that don’t directly benefit an individual consumer. They are needed to make the overall system work.

As the economy gets bigger and more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly find themselves left out. Besides losing an increasing part of the output of the intermediate goods and services mentioned in the prior paragraph, there are other pieces that take slices of the total output of goods and services:

  • High paid workers take their quite-large slices of the total output. These individuals tend to be the ones who get the benefit of asset appreciation, as well.
  • Pension programs and other programs to help the elderly and unemployed take a cut.
  • Health insurance costs, in the US at least, tend to be very high, relative to wages, for lower-paid workers.
  • The work of some employees can be replaced by low-paid overseas employees or by robots. If they are to keep their jobs, their wages need to be suitably low to compete.

With all of these issues, the workers at the bottom of the employment hierarchy increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services made by the economy.

Slide 11

We know some of the kinds of things that happen when economies are close to collapse from the writings of researchers such as Peter Turchin, lead author of Secular Cycles, and Joseph Tainter, mentioned earlier. One approach is for governments to try to work around the resource problem by starting wars with other economies whose resources they might gain. Probably a more likely outcome is that these low-resource-per-capita economies become vulnerable to attack by other economies because of their weakened condition. In any event, more conflict is likely as resource limits hit.

If the low incomes of non-elite workers persist, many bad outcomes can be expected. Local riots can be expected as citizens protest their low wages or pensions. Governments are likely to find that they cannot collect enough taxes. Governments will also find that they must cut back on programs, or (in today’s world) their currencies will sink relative to currencies of other countries. Intergovernmental organizations may fail for lack of funding, or governments may be overthrown by unhappy citizens.

Debt defaults can be expected. Governments have a long history of defaulting on their debts when conditions were bad according to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

It becomes very easy for epidemics to take hold because of the poor eating habits and the close living quarters of non-elite workers.

With respect to inflation-adjusted commodity prices, it is logical that they would stay low because a large share of the population would be impoverished and thus not able to afford very many of these commodities. A person would expect gluts of commodities, as occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States because many farmers and farm-hands had been displaced by modern farming equipment. We also find that the book of Revelation from the Bible seems to indicate that low prices and lack of demand were problems at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon (Revelation 18:11-13).

Slide 12

Much of what peak oil theory misunderstands is what our society as a whole misunderstands. Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction. A major part of the problem is that added complexity leads to too much wage and wealth disparity. Eventually, the low wages of many of the workers filter through to oil and other energy prices, making prices too low for producers.

Collapse isn’t instantaneous, as we will see on Slide 26. As resources per capita fall too low, there are several ways to keep problems hidden. More debt at lower interest rates can be added. New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems. Increased globalization can be used. Corners can be cut on electricity transmission, installation and maintenance, and in the building of new electricity generating structures. It is only when the economy hits a bump in the road (such as a climate-related event) that there suddenly is a major problem: Electricity production fails, or not enough food is produced. In fact, California, Florida, and China have all encountered the need for rolling blackouts with respect to electricity in the past year; China is now encountering difficulty with inadequate food supply, as well.

Economists have played a major role in hiding problems with energy with their models that seem to show that prices can be expected to rise if there is a shortage of oil or other energy. Their models miss the point that adequate supplemental energy is just as important for demand as it is for supply of finished goods and services. The reason energy is important for demand is because demand depends on the wages of workers, and the wages of workers in turn depend on the productivity of those workers. The use of energy supplies to allow workers to operate tools of many kinds (such as computers, trucks, electric lights, ovens, and agricultural equipment) greatly influences the productivity of those workers.

A person who believes energy prices can rise endlessly is likely to believe that recycling can increase without limit because of ever-rising prices. Such a person is also likely to believe that the substitution of intermittent renewables for fossil fuels will work because high prices for scarce electricity will enable an approach that is inherently high-cost, if any continuity of supply is required.

Thus, the confusion isn’t so much that of peak oilers. Instead, the confusion is that of economists and scientists building models based on past history. These models miss the turning points that occur as limits approach. They assume that future patterns will replicate past patterns, but this is not what happens in a finite world. If we lived in a world without limits, their models would be correct. This confusion is very much built into today’s thinking.

In fact, we are living in an economic system/ecosystem that has brakes to it. These brakes are being applied now, even though 99%+ of the population isn’t aware of the problem. The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.

Slide 13

The opinions expressed in Slide 13 reflect some of the views I have heard expressed speaking with peak oilers and with people looking into issues from a biophysical economics perspective. Obviously, views differ from person to person.

Many people believe that resources in the ground provide a good estimate of the quantity of fossil fuels that can be extracted in the future. Peak oilers tend to believe that the available resources will need to have sufficiently high “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI) ratios to make extraction feasible. Politicians and climate modelers tend to believe that prices can rise endlessly, so low EROEI is no obstacle. They seem to believe that anything that we have the technical skill to extract, even coal under the North Sea, can be extracted.

If a person believes the high estimates of fossil fuel resources that seem to be available and misses the point that the economy has built-in brakes, climate change becomes the issue of major concern.

My view is that most of the resources that seem to be available will be left in the ground because of low prices and problems associated with collapse, such as failing governments and broken supply lines. In any event, we do not really have the ability to fix the climate; the laws of physics will provide their own adjustment. We will simply need to live with whatever climate is provided. Humans lived through ice-ages in the past. Presumably, whatever humans remain after what seems to be an upcoming bottleneck will be able to live in suitable areas of the world in the future.

Slide 14

On Slide 14, note that today’s industrial economy must necessarily come to an end, just as the lives of hurricanes and of people come to an end.

Also note that with diminishing returns, the cost of producing many of the things listed on Slide 14 is rising. For example, with rising population, dry areas of the world eventually need to use desalination to get enough fresh water for their growing populations. Desalination is expensive. Even if the necessary workaround is simply deeper wells, this still adds costs.

With diminishing returns affecting many parts of the economy simultaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for efforts in the direction of efficiency to lead to costs that are truly lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Advanced education and health care in particular tend to have an ever-rising inflation-adjusted costs of production. Some minerals do as well, as the quality of ores depletes.

Slide 15

An important issue to note is that wages need to cover all the rising costs, even the rising cost of health care. The paychecks of many people, especially those without advanced education, fall too low to meet all of their needs.

Slide 16

Slides 16 and 17 describe some of the reasons why oil prices don’t necessarily rise with scarcity.

Slide 17
Slide 18

I was one of the co-authors of the Ke Wang paper mentioned in Slide 18. We developed three different forecasts of how much oil would be extracted in China, depending on how high oil prices would be able to rise. The Red Line is the “Stays Low” Scenario, with prices close to $50 per barrel. The Yellow Line is the “Ever-Rising Prices” Scenario. The Best Estimate reflects the expectation that prices would be in roughly the $100 to $120 barrel range, from 2015 onward.

Slide 19

In fact, oil prices have stayed fairly low, and China’s oil production has declined, as our paper predicted.

Slide 20
Slide 21

Note that the chart on Slide 21 shows wage disparity only in the US. On this basis, the share of wages going to the top 1% and top 0.1% are back at the levels that they were in the 1920s. Now, our economy is much more global. If we consider all of the low income people in the world, the worldwide wage disparity is much greater.

Slide 22

There are two things to note on Slide 22. The first is that producers, in inflation-adjusted terms, seem to need very high prices, approximately $120 per barrel or more. This is based on a presentation made by Steve Kopits, which I wrote up here: Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.

The other thing to note is that oil prices tend to bounce around a great deal. Prices seem to depend on the amount of debt and on interest rates, as well as the wages of workers. The peak in oil prices in mid-2008 came precisely at the time the debt bubble broke with respect to mortgage and credit card debt in the US. I wrote about this in an article in the journal Energy called, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell. Recently, there has been a great deal of QE done, as well as direct spending by governments, but oil prices are still far below the $120 per barrel level. Middle Eastern oil producers especially need high oil prices, in order to collect the high tax revenue that they depend upon to provide programs for their citizens.

Slide 23

Coal prices (Slide 23) tend to follow somewhat the same pattern as oil prices (Slide 22). There is very much the same balancing act with coal prices as well: Coal prices need to be high enough for producers, but not too high for customers to buy products made with coal, such as electricity and steel.

China tries to keep its coal prices relatively high in order to encourage production within the country. China has been limiting imports to try to keep prices high. The relatively high coal prices of China make it an attractive destination for coal exporters. There are now a large number of boats waiting outside China hoping to sell coal to China at an attractive price.

Slide 24

The blue line on Figure 24 represents total energy consumption up through 2020. The red dotted line is a rough guesstimate of how energy consumption might fall. This decline could happen if people wanting energy consumption coming only from renewables were able to succeed by 2050 (except I am doubtful that these renewable energy types would really be of much use by themselves).

Alternatively, this might also be the decline that our self-organizing economy takes us on. We are already seeing a decrease in energy consumption related to the current pandemic. I think governmental reactions to the pandemic were prompted, in part, by the very stretched condition of our oil and other energy supplies. Countries were experiencing riots over low wages. They also could not afford to import as much oil as they were importing. Shutdowns in response to COVID-19 cases seemed like a sensible thing to do. They helped restore order and saved on energy imports. Strangely enough, the pandemic may be a part of the collapse that our self-organizing economy is arranging for us.

Slide 25

Slide 25 takes the blue line from Slide 24 and looks at what happened in more detail. On Slide 25, we are looking at the average annual increase in energy consumption, for a given 10 year period. This is split between the rate of population growth (blue), and the energy consumption growth that went into other things, which I equate to change in “standard of living” (red). The big red humps represent very good times, economically. The post-World War II bump is especially high. The valleys are times of disturbing changes, including wars and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Of course, all of these situations occurred during periods when energy consumption was generally rising. If these unfortunate things happened when oil consumption was rising, what might possibly happen when energy consumption is falling?

Slide 26

We now seem to be hitting the Crisis Stage. In the past, collapse (which takes place in the Crisis Stage) has not been instantaneous; it has taken place over quite a number of years, typically 20 or more. The world economy is quite different now, with its international trade system and heavy use of debt. It would seem likely that a collapse could happen more quickly. A common characteristic of collapses, such as avalanches, is that they often seem to start off fairly slowly. Then, suddenly, a large piece breaks away, and there is a big collapse. Something analogous to this could possibly happen with the economy, too.

Slide 27

One of the major issues with adding intermittent renewables to the electric grid is a pricing problem. Once wind and solar are given subsidies (even the subsidy of “going first”), all of the other types of electricity production seem to need subsidies, as well. It is the pricing systems that are terribly detrimental, although this is not generally noticed. In fact, researchers who are looking only at energy may not even care if the pricing is wrong. Ultimately, the low pricing for electricity can be expected to bring the electric grid down, just as inadequate prices for fossil fuels can be expected to lead to the closure of many fossil fuel producers. Both Texas and California are having difficulty because they have not been collecting enough funds from customers to build resilient systems.

Slide 28
Slide 29

The focus of EROEI research is often with respect to whether the EROEI of a particular type of energy production is “high enough,” relative to some goal, such as 3:1 or 10:1. I believe that there needs to be more focus on the total quantity of net energy produced. If there is an EROEI goal for highly complex energy types, it needs to be much higher than for less complex energy types.

Slide 30

Today, it is common to see the EROEIs of a number of different types of energy displayed side-by-side as if they were comparable. This type of comparison is also made with other energy metrics, such as “Levelized Cost of Electricity” and “Energy Payback Period.” I think this approach makes highly complex types of energy production, such as intermittent wind and solar, look better than they really are. Even intermittent hydroelectric power generation, such as is encountered in places with rainy seasons and dry seasons and in places that are subject to frequent droughts, is not really comparable to electricity supply that can be provided year-around by fossil fuel providers, if adequate storage is available.

Slide 31

Earlier in this post, I documented a number of reasons why we should expect low rather than high energy prices in the future. I am reiterating the point here because it is a point energy researchers need especially to be aware of. Production is likely to come to an end because it is unprofitable.

Slide 32

One characteristic of human-made complexity is that it has very little redundancy. If something goes wrong in one part of one system, it is likely to ripple through that system, as well as other systems to which the first system is connected. An outage of oil is likely to indirectly affect electricity because oil is needed to fix problems with electricity transmission lines. An electricity outage may cause disruption in oil drilling and refining, and even in filling up automobiles at service stations. An international trade disruption can break supply lines and leave shipping containers at the wrong end of the globe.

We know that collapse tends to lead to less complex systems. We should expect fewer jobs requiring advanced education. We should expect to start losing battles against infectious diseases. We should expect a reduction in international trade; in the future, it may primarily take place among a few trusted partners. Some intergovernmental organizations are likely to disappear. Peak oil cannot happen by itself; it can only happen with disruptions and shrinkage in many other parts of the economy, as well.

Slide 33

The climate is indeed changing. Unfortunately, we humans have little ability to change what is happening, especially at this late date. Arguably, some changes could have been made much earlier, for example in the 1970s when the modeling included in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donnela Meadows and others showed that the world economy was likely to hit limits before 2050.

It is clear to many people that the world economy is now struggling. There is too much debt; young people are having trouble finding jobs that pay well enough; people in poor countries are increasingly more food insecure. Leaders everywhere would like solutions. The “easy” solution to offer is that intermittent wind and solar will solve all our problems, including climate change. The closer a person looks at the situation, the more the solution seems like nonsense. Wind and solar work passably well at small concentrations within electric systems, if it is possible to work around their pricing problems. But they don’t scale up well. Energy researchers especially should be aware of these difficulties.

The book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee points out that there have been an amazing number of what seem to be coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to flourish for four billion years. Perhaps these coincidences will continue. Perhaps there is an underlying plan that we are not aware of.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications. Bookmark the permalink.

3,333 Responses to Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

  1. Standard Textbook Dollar, Or Eurodollar Standard?

    It’s standard textbook stuff. Convention has it that “capital flows” are determined by the portfolio effects of interest rate differentials. Quite simply, if yields aren’t very high for low risk US instruments (like UST’s) or their European counterparts, fixed income managers must go hunting for yields overseas in Emerging Markets who offer fatter returns by comparison. Thus, “capital” is said to flow into them, which aids in their own domestic monetary conditions (see: Brazil).

    The catch is when this thing reverses; or so they say. Should Treasury yields begin to rise, then it’s said “capital” flows back “home” leaving the EM system from which it came vulnerable to standard ill-effects. Conventional of all convention, here’s Brookings in January 2014 laying out the typical view on 2013’s taper tantrum inspired EM crisis:

  2. It’s the entropy, stupid!

    Towards a thermodynamic and complexity-based
    framework for macro-economic policy

    Martijn Veening
    March 4, 2021

    • Thanks for the link. A publication in entropometrics isn’t a published academic paper; it is (in my opinion), more like a post on Our Finite World.

      From the title of the article, it is easy to see that the author is going to head off into a direction that cannot work. But before heading in that direction, he has interesting things to say about how the economy works. These are things I found interesting in the article:

      On page 1, he says,
      “One could even state that the academic economic discipline is in fact not even empirically grounded, not really scientific.”

      On page 4, he says,
      “the dynamics on earth do not care about the way we humans divided it up in different domains: in reality it is just one big system. So, next to the integration of relevant disciplines, it makes sense to try to determine common denominators between these disciplines.

      Also on page 4,
      “It takes some distancing to recognize that within natural domains, these growth-patterns have often found some natural ceiling, and that this holds for any scale you look at.”

      Page 5
      “Only within human domains we see this increasing level of growth in so many areas. But logic dictates that even this kind of growth must reach some ceiling, some saturation level.

      Page 6, in section called “Non-Closed Economics”
      “If we want to understand what is happening in an economy, as part of a single global earth system, we cannot ignore the huge inputs of energy from outside.”

      Page 7. in section called “Non-Linear Economics”
      “Traditional macroeconomics has always used models based on linear dependencies. This makes sense up to some point, but not when modeling modern, inherently nonlinear economic systems.”

      Page 7. In section called “Fractal Economics”
      Broadly defined economy has subsystems of different sizes. He says, “Some large-scale patterns ’emerge’ as a result of ensembles of smaller-scale dynamics: small-scale dynamics ’bubble-up’, and encounter large-scale dynamics.”

      Page 8. In section called “Energy”
      “The global ecosystem is dissipating solar energy that gets caught in ome intricate fractal biochemical infrastructure, with all kinds of boom-bust cycles (birth, growth, death), at every scale.
      “And this is also exactly what our economic system does by means of its technological, social and financial infrastructure. At every fractal scale.”

      Page 12. In section called “Complexity and Growth”
      ” life itself can be seen as a huge increase in ’(bio-)technological’ complexity on earth, from the perspective of the facilitation of energy dissipation.
      If a dissipation-dynamic, in its turbulent chaotic movements, encounters a more efficient way, it will follow it. Exactly like water.”
      “The complexity of a system is the measure of the amount of, and diversity in participants
      and their interactions.”

      Page 13. In section called, “Complexity as a key proxy for energy dissipation”
      “if an economy sees some technological progress, it will burn up energy and resources more and faster, for as long as it is possible.”
      “There appears to be some power-law: there are few big, really complex participants, and many small, simpler participants, in some dynamic.”
      “a complex system optimizes towards the state with the highest level of energy dissipation”

      He also gives a reference to something he has written that he thinks proves the last item (Maximum Entropy Principle):
      M. Veening. “A statistical inference of the Maximum Entropy Production Principle”. In: (2021). doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0110.v1. url: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202103.0110/v1

      • Nehemiah says:

        ““if an economy sees some technological progress, it will burn up energy and resources more and faster”–I have come to suspect it actually works the other way around: if some new energy resource is discovered, new technologies get developed to make use of it.

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    I’ve read two things in my life that kept me awake afterwards:

    1. https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

    This identified the cause of GFC and convinced me that there was no way out… all there would be is desperate policies aimed at pushing out total collapse of civilization.

    2. https://mcusercontent.com/92561d6dedb66a43fe9a6548f/files/bead7203-0798-4ac8-abe2-076208015556/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concert_Geert_Vanden_Bossche.01.pdf

    This exposes what the Elders intend to do with 8B people so that they will not be faced with no food, petrol, electricity, government, police… Essentially they want to remove us from the planet before total collapse arrives. I have long expected this outcome … but reading the science behind the specifics…really hits home.


    Get the vaccine .. don’t get the vaccine… I don’t think it matters… hundreds of millions if not billions will get it… and they will unleash nightmarish variants of Covid that will surge across the world wiping out most people.

    And for those who avoid the nightmare viruses… there will be other far worse nightmares… making them wish they’d have taken the jab.

    PMO Canada ‘We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate.’

    100% correct.

    • The first of these links is Tim Morgan’s view of “EROEI is falling,” and this is what will bring the economy down. This is not what I have been saying. I think the measure is very distorted. It makes wind and solar look at lot better than they really are.

      Perhaps Tim Morgan really means that depletion is a problem, especially combined with rising population. The issue I am far more concerned about is falling energy consumption per capita.

      • Nehemiah says:

        EROEI only makes solar and wind look better than they are until you include the energy cost of energy storage to resolve the intermittency problem. Then they go from poor to hopelessly inadequate.

        I also think the often quoted EROEI for wind of 18 (without storage or “buffering”) is an overestimate, although I don’t know by how much. I think the true output is lower and the maintenance cost (in joules) is higher than the original calculations presumed, although I admit this is more of a hunch than anything. I wish Ch. Hall would take another look at wind turbines based on more up to date information.

        Also, what about the energy cost of dealing with the end of life cycle waste? Is that including in the calculations too? If we truly scale up these technologies, surely we can’t just keep hauling it off to a dump somewhere.

    • Mrs S says:

      Re link 2:

      So Bill Gates chum says mass covid injection is actually causing terrifying mutations of the virus and we’re all going to die.

      Unless…..we all have another new completely different vaccine. This time one that “primes’ our NK cells.

      Yeah right. He can shove both vaccines where the sun doesn’t shine. Sideways.

  4. In 2018, Diplomats Warned of Risky Coronavirus Experiments in a Wuhan Lab. No One Listened.

    After seeing a risky lab, they wrote a cable warning to Washington. But it was ignored.

    On January 15, in its last days, President Donald Trump’s State Department put out a statement with serious claims about the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The statement said the U.S. intelligence community had evidence that several researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory were sick with Covid-like symptoms in autumn 2019—implying the Chinese government had hidden crucial information about the outbreak for months—and that the WIV lab, despite “presenting itself as a civilian institution,” was conducting secret research projects with the Chinese military. The State Department alleged a Chinese government cover-up and asserted that “Beijing continues today to withhold vital information that scientists need to protect the world from this deadly virus, and the next one.”

    The exact origin of the new coronavirus remains a mystery to this day, but the search for answers is not just about assigning blame. Unless the source is located, the true path of the virus can’t be traced, and scientists can’t properly study the best ways to prevent future outbreaks.

    • This is strange. Thinking of ways the situation might play out.

      At some point, it will not be able to honor the amounts people have in bank accounts. Debts will have to be cancelled too. If they can tie this in with the vaccine, they will have more control over people. I am wondering if their timing on all of this is too soon.

  5. VIDEO -‘There’s Shortages Of Everything’: Several Mass. Companies Say COVID Has Caused Supply Chain Breakdown

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Went to the hardware store yesterday to get matt black spray paint… they said that’s a tough one to get and they’ve been sold out for some weeks…. try back next week she said ‘the truck comes but we never know what’s going to be in it’…

      I am also finding that many brands of Japanese whiskey are not in stock… vendor has no idea when more will arrive.

  6. The ECB is out of control…

    Printing $5+ trillion in a 12 month period is insane.

    • There should be a label on the horizontal axis. If the last month is February 2021, the first month shown was January 2020. Money printing certainly is out of control.

    • Nehemiah says:

      That graph is meaningless without more information re: what is actually being measured.

  7. YCC is already in play.

    The Fed is on its largest buying spree of Treasuries since June 2020.

    $95B in the last 4 weeks.

    90% of all were longer duration bonds.

    And it still isn’t working.

  8. Minority Of One says:

    Yesterday’s China-In-Focus has a slot on the collapse of HSMC, the semi-conductor company that had about $20B invested in it. Looks like the $20B has disappeared, and the remaining workforce laid off.

    8 m 28s – 11m 18s

    • The story immediately after the collapse of HSMC is about China’s GDP for 2020 not really being the 2.3% that has been widely reported. The numbers don’t seem to add up, with the big cutback in consumer spending. But China is known for reporting incorrect numbers.

      • Nehemiah says:

        Biden’s election (but don’t look too closely at how the sausage was made!) is a dream come true for the CCP. Joe Biden, the Manchurian candidate.

  9. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    increasing reliance by U.S. chip companies on international partners to fabricate the chips they design reflects the United States’ diminished capability. U.S. semiconductor companies have 47% of the global chip sales market, but only 12% are manufactured in the U.S. Meeting expectations for ever faster and smarter electronics requires chip design innovation, which, in turn, is dependent on the most advanced fabrication technologies available.

    Advances in semiconductor fabrication are based on the number of transistors, the smallest of a chip’s electronic components, per square millimeter. The most advanced semiconductor fabrication technologies and facilities, known as fabs, are labeled as 5 nanometers, or millionths of a millimeter. The number refers to the process rather than any particular chip feature. Generally, the smaller the nanometer rating, the more transistors per square millimeter, though it’s a complicated picture with many variables. The highest transistor densities are about 100 million per square millimeter.

    Taiwan and Samsung in South Korea are developing 3 nanometer fabs while the U.S. does not yet have a 7 nanometer fab. Intel has announced that its 7 nanometer fab won’t be ready for production until late 2022 or early 2023. This leaves the U.S. without the means to make the most advanced chips.Limited federal investment
    The governments of Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and China each invest tens of billions of dollars each year in their semiconductor industries and it shows. These investments include not just the facilities themselves but also the R&D and tool development necessary to move to the next generation of fabs. Such incentives in the U.S. remain minimal.


  10. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    America has seen a ‘nationalization of leases’ — and it could hurt renters amid the COVID-19 pandemic
    Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and New York University recently released a new study that is one of the first large-scale descriptive analyses examining the language used in residential leases. The study examined roughly 170,000 leases filed in connection with eviction proceedings from 2005 to 2019 in Philadelphia. Over that span of time, the leases they analyzed became less and less friendly to tenants and more biased in the favor of landlords.

    • Except that rules that allow tenants not to pay rent if they don’t have the money work in the opposite way.

    • I looked at the article. To some extent apartment owners have added “behavioral” provisions and other provisions that will allow them to kick out tenants who supposedly are protected if they don’t pay their rent.

  11. Forcing these vaccines on a significant percentage of health care workers, first responders, teachers, pilots, military and critical infrastructure workers will create a breakdown in our local societies. If a hospital has a 100% vaccination rate for workers and by the end of the year 20% of workers have reactions that prevent them from working while the patient load increases exponentially due to the vaccine side effects for the rest of the population, what happens to society? We are killing of our educators, military, firemen, paramedic, police…this is a deliberate plan to manifest their depopulation agenda while creating anarchy to make everyone dependent upon the government to take care of their needs.


    • The vaccine doesn’t seem to work well in people over age 60 with comorbidities. Also, there are a lot of people who seem to get lighter cases. Presumably, they are still passing the virus around.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Check out Geert’s presentation that I posted earlier … they are indeed spreading the virus…

        And attempts to impede viral spread just make the virus adapt and become more virulent as it needs to latch on to new meat.

        The response to Covid is the exact opposite of what it should be — if you wanted it to pass…

        But of course that is not the plan…. never was

  13. Dr. Scott Jensen – Stupid is as stupid does. Immunity passports are immoral. We tread on dangerous ground.

  14. When will they put an end to this madness?

    CoraVax vaccine candidate is made from the spike protein component of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

    CoraVax, similar to other vaccines, uses a ‘carrier’ vaccine. CoraVax utilizes a killed rabies vaccine with the spike protein as an added component.

    The rabies vaccine is known to produce a strong immune response and has been proven safe for all populations, including children and pregnant women.

    An individual vaccinated with Coravax will most likely develop antibodies for both SARS-CoV-2 as well as rabies.

  15. What could go wrong? Article from 2016:

    Researchers combine MERS and rabies viruses to create innovative 2-for-1 vaccine

    Through genetic engineering, Dr. Frieman and his colleagues produced a modified rabies virus that expresses a protein from the surface of the MERS virus, known as a spike protein, on the surface of the rabies virus. He describes the MERS protein as a looking like a “lollypop sticking out a tennis ball.” Through an existing, FDA-approved process, scientists then treated the modified virus chemically, inactivating it so that it cannot replicate. This inactivated virus is itself the vaccine, which triggers an immune response but poses no danger to the recipient.

  16. Soaring home prices are starting to alarm policymakers

    The last time the U.S. saw such skyrocketing home prices, the ensuing crash brought down the global economy.

    The booming housing market helped stave off economic collapse in 2020. But soaring prices are starting to worry policymakers, who fear the market could lock a generation of would-be buyers out of homeownership.

    Home prices in January — typically a slow month for the market — were up 14 percent over the same month the previous year, while sales jumped 24 percent, despite an unemployment rate that was almost twice as high. Demand for existing homes is so strong that the average residence is on the market for just three weeks, and inventory is at a record low after seeing its steepest drop last year since the data was first tracked in 1999.

    It all threatens to freeze broad swaths of the population out of the market, leaving millions of Americans in a less secure financial position, widening the racial wealth gap and forcing millennials, already lagging previous generations in building wealth and forming families, to fall even further behind.

  17. California port pileup leaves old records in the dust

    Labor unrest at West Coast ports in 2015 was a landmark event for U.S. importers. Massive congestion amid contentious contract negotiations with the dockworkers union convinced some importers to shift business to East and Gulf Coast ports and diversify supply chains.

    But despite its lasting impact, what happened in 2015 pales in comparison to what’s unfolding at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in 2021.

    Data on the number of ships at anchor in San Pedro Bay is compiled by the Marine Exchange of Southern California. American Shipper compared the Marine Exchange’s 2015 numbers to congestion figures for 2020-21, measuring from the time anchorages started to fill in each case.

    The difference turns out to be enormous — and growing by the day.

    • What a mess! No wonder there aren’t enough containers to go around in other parts of the world.

      • VIDEO – Ships Wait at Anchorage Off Port Los Angeles/Long Beach

      • The union longshoremen and management refuse to unload faster – blaming covid. China is out of spare containers so they can’t ship more until the current containers get unloaded and turned around. (which could take months)

        Here are some of the items that will be gone first –

        Semiconductor products, computers and computer parts. cell phones, li-ion batteries, foam, mattresses, furniture, lumber, refrigerators, freezers, bicycles, sporting goods, New cars and car parts, building supplies, various industrial and medical products.

        This type of situation can spill over into other products since manufacturers also depend on various components for production. If containers aren’t moving their parts, they will have to shut down too.

  18. The Collapse of Trust in Public Health

    Maybe you have noticed the rise in public incredulity toward the coronavirus narrative that you hear all day from the mainstream media. More doubts. More opposition. More protests. And far less trust. You are hardly alone. What began as a spark in the Spring of 2020 is now a raging fire. Try as they might to put it out, it is burning hotter and higher than ever before.

    The data are already in and the lockdown elites are getting worried. Rightly so.

    The great epidemiologist Donald Henderson in 2006 made two firm predictions of the consequences of lockdowns. First, he said, doing so would have no benefit in terms of disease mitigation. Indeed, lockdowns did not work.

    Second, he said that doing so would result in discrediting public health and cause a “loss of public trust in government.” The loss in public trust – not just officials but also in media – is palpably obvious.

    • racoon#9.5meg says:

      The CDC just announced those “fully VAXXED” “may” (means are allowed) to be together without masks and social distancing. So it begins. This is a rather powerful incentive to VAX. Whether this leads to two separate social groups the VAXXED and the UNVAXXED with persecution of the latter remains to be seen. There are a great many that are eager for the promised return to normal and dont seem to have a problem with only granting self evident rights to those VAXXED. There is also a great many that know this doesnt pass the smell test. The question is will they hold their nose. I think a great many ignore their intuition that this is wrong hold their nose and accept the genetic modification. I encounter more women then men that understand intuitively that something foul is afoot. These sort of intuitive understandings are ridiculed and attacked while the vaporous dogma of virology is demanded as absolute belief. In light of this the degree to which there is sustained and prevalent refusal of the genetic modification remains questionable IMO.

      • Kowalainen says:

        It could mean they will be ‘modified’ to something ‘better’. However, most likely it will serve to enhance the herd like behaviors.

        I’m not quite sure that would be a negative thing as I don’t have to endure the herders perpetual propaganda and sanctimonious hypocrisy.

        Just program ‘em directly over 5G like any other IoT device. Imagine this, you set to stroll about and bask in the glory of existence and for some unfathomable reason all you meet is interesting people. The dullard muppets conveniently “decided” to stay home that day. 🤔

        You could program in the schedule, like your robotic vacuum cleaner only starts to run when you decide to leave home.

        The possibilities…


    • Nehemiah says:

      Yes, lockdowns were very effective in countries that actually did them: China, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand. The US shut down lots of businesses, but to call what we do here “lockdowns” is ridiculous. I have never been unable to go about freely wherever and whenever I wished, and most places other than eateries or sporting events seem to have remained open, so there are plenty of places to go, and lots of cars on the streets.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Here’s what lockdowns achieve… and the minute you open up … the problem you were trying to stop … returns…

        So why bother to lockdown?

        Third of Queenstown businesses may be gone by winter

        Nearly a third of businesses in Queenstown’s CBD expect to be gone by winter, a new survey has found.

        The survey by the town’s chamber of commerce paints a grim picture of business confidence in the region. In the Queenstown Lakes area about 70 percent of businesses are expecting a drop in profits.

        Queenstown Chamber of Commerce chief executive Ruth Stokes told Checkpoint the data was not a surprise, but just confirmed what she had been hearing anecdotally.


        This place is a ghost town.

        • Nehemiah says:

          It only returns if you reopen your borders to people who have not been quarantined for couple of weeks upon arrival. If you stay closed except for loading and unloading goods, and quarantine any returning travelers for a couple of weeks, you’ll be just fine until it finally blows over in the rest of the world–which it will. All pandemics do, even before the invention of vaccines.

          But all that is irrelevant to my point, which is that mass quarantines DO work, and we have four countries that prove it, so I don’t understand why we have so many people on the internet saying, “It doesn’t even work” when we can see it does if you enforce it seriously. Unfortunately, a lot of people taking the other side of this argument are willing to quote from shoddy research that counts as “locked down” many countries or states that were much less strict than New Zealand.

          Note too that I am not saying that national lockdowns are the only way or even the best way to combat covid. I am just saying that they do indeed work if a country wants to do it that way and is organized enough to pull it off.

          • I am not convinced that this pandemic will go away, any more than AIDS or polio will go away. In fact, it might be compared to the common cold, which doesn’t go away. I wrote an article in April 2020 talking about the poor success we were having in wiping out diseases worldwide. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/08/10/we-need-to-change-our-covid-19-strategy/

            A country can quarantine itself, except for loading and unloading goods. But this wrecks the economy by cutting off tourism. This results in a loss of jobs and starts a downward spiral in the economy, not all that different from what closing down does. Read the book Scale, by Geoffrey West. If you want innovation (including new patents), you need a mixing of people and ideas. YouTube isn’t quite the same.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            But it won’t blow over… that is not the plan.

    • Untold numbers of Americans have gone without medical care for more than a year now, resulting in health conditions becoming worse, diagnoses being missed, unmeasurable stress for anxious patients and families, and worsening prognoses.

      One reason people haven’t received care has been ignored in the media, but reveals a disturbing decline of ethics in medicine and politics: The healthcare industry has been using Covid-19 screening tests to deny care to patients who do not want the test.

      With good reason, a lot of people don’t want to be tested and forced to become part of the politicization of Covid-19.

      There seem to be a number of issues involved. Administering this test can be very profitable for both doctors and hospital. Poor patients especially may find the cost unacceptable. Requiring the test leads to delays in admitting patients for with other conditions, such as cancer. Requiring these patients to wear masks may be cruel, if they are having problems with nausea.

  19. Article from 2015: Ethical Questions Arise After Scientists Brew Super Powerful ‘SARS 2.0’ Virus

    More than a decade after its outbreak, the name “SARS” still incites memories of worldwide panic over a disease that, we thought at the time, couldn’t be stopped. Now, 13 years later, scientists have created a hybrid version of a virus that could be the world’s next pandemic, a “SARS 2.0.”

    The findings have brought up ethical questions about whether scientists should pursue “gain-of-function” research, or work that could increase the virulence of certain pathogens, despite the dangers of creating a virus that could potentially wreak havoc if released into the wild.

    • racoon#9.5meg says:

      None of the MSM is uncontrolled. Certainly not vice. Are these secret mad man laboratory “epose” truth or just subconscious insertions of fear porn? The result is the same regardless of origin.

      Option one. It just occurred. Get VAXXED. Option two. We screwed up. Get VAXXED.

      Option one leaves some question about whether the symptoms are actually from a computer simulated genome that supposedly represents something real. Option two is a much cleaner package. The questions remain but there are less yarn strings lying around that get pulled on.

      There are two real questions
      1; Should our species should modify its own genetics?
      2; Does the abstract model of arbitrary programing called genetic sequencing represent a reason why we should modify our genetics?

      To honestly ask these questions with honest open ended free will responses would indicate that some trust in the narrative was indicated. Without this honesty it is clear to me that trust in the narrative is not indicated.

      Anything that detracts from the consciousness arising about the true questions before us may have been placed purposely IMO.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Well, it depends on what the modification does, no?

        I’d like to have a nice vaxx for the two diseases that refuses to leave me alone: dumb and lazy.

        I have tried everything, educate myself, get a job, and engage in a moron thing called thinking. To no avail. I use to wake up short on breath, yup, indeed, it’s so bad I almost don’t bother to breathe. My main worry now is that the cardiovascular pump takes inspiration from my oxygenation system. Indeed it happened a few times, it’s a bit of a cold sweat when the pump decides to chill out for some time longer than the usual between the beats.


        • racoon#9.5meg says:

          I have no problem with people choosing elective procedures. Many people experience significant quality of life benefits from them. . Due diligence. Its a product. Risk VS reward. The odds are usually quite favorable. The cornerstone of this is informed consent. Usually their are not easy do overs for botched jobs.

          No elective procedure would be allowed with the amount of testing and testing results of the VAX. VERY murky water concerning everything about it. I personally feel informed consent is not possible with it because of the failure to release data. Its certainly a interesting experiment.

          Myself I stay away from prototypes. I have a anecdotal example to leverage off of in my VAXXED parents. Mum seemed a bit off today but she is getting old anyway…Guess i should have been a Mennonite. As Duncan says oh well “less population” about those who dont accept the VAX. Im ok with that. I like my life. I see the risk as off the charts.

          Most are getting “the shot” without a second thought. They have not been informed of any controversy whatsoever. They make their life decisions in a different fashion than me. Not really my business their decision making process about their bodies.

    • Nehemiah says:

      That should be SARS 3.0, since covid is already SARS 2.0, officially SARS-cov-2 (and also genetically engineered).

    • Nehemiah says:

      It is my opinion that all of this research on contagious disease pathogens should be conducted in remote desert areas where there are few humans or wildlife to be infected if it happens to escape the lab, but whoever makes these decisions seems to think people like me are overly cautious.

    • The fact that people are looking at Rabies in terms of a virus to pass around more widely, presumably to kill off part of the population, seems to me to be a sign that we have too many researchers with too much time on their hands.

      • hillcountry says:

        LOL – https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3448.Marcia_Angell

        What percentage of “peer-reviewed” did she tell us was not at all scientific. It was some very high number. “Research” has become just another teat on the cash-cow of tax-financed subsidy of big pharma. It is the case though, that some among the “bad” studies have something worthwhile in them, teased-out of everything that has come before. So, it’s not like they’re completely wasting our money, but for the most part it’s a giant make-work program, at least in my shrimp-eye view of it.

        • Nehemiah says:

          Also, the “publish or perish” policy in much of academia surely must contribute to the large number of poorly done studies.

  20. Tim Groves says:

    I can wholeheartedly recommend this video either to help hone your awareness of the current state of play in the UK or even for the pleasure of hearing the Queen’s English as she should be spoken. It’s an extraordinarily erudite, cogent and articulate interview about the lockdown situation and the threat to liberty. One doesn’t hear much conversation carried on in this tone and with this degree of civility and intelligence these days, not even from members of the Royal Family and certainly not from the Cabinet.

    Jonathan Sumption was once the epitome of the Establishment — a brilliant barrister who represented the Government in the Hutton enquiry, Supreme Court Justice, supporter of the Remain campaign and esteemed historian of the Hundred Years’ War. But then Covid happened.

    Over the past year, his unabashed criticism of lockdown policies has turned him into something of a renegade. It is development that mystifies him; as he sees it, his views have always been mainstream liberal, and it is the world around that has changed.

    In the course of our conversation, the retired judge doesn’t hold back. He asserts that it is becoming morally acceptable to ignore Covid regulations, and even warns that a campaign of “civil disobedience” has already begun.

    • If we don’t want our immune system to be messed with (kept away from normal germs, vaccines to direct our immune systems toward particular viruses, with the likelihood that this direction will prove to be incorrect), we have to do something different from what leaders are demanding. I am afraid I haven’t listened to this retired judge, but I expect I would agree with him.

    • Ed says:

      John Stuart Mills my favorite political theorist.

    • hillcountry says:

      Thanks for that. Still have a ways to go but here’s initial thoughts.

      The irrationality of despotism that he notes is a crucial insight. But then, he blew it for me at the 30-minute mark where he folds on the question of vaccine passports, posing them as the “least-bad” option. It contradicts other portions of his interview although he soft-peddles it. Counter-posing the relative merits of mandatory vaccination to mandatory house-arrest is the kind of ‘lesser-evil’ thinking that underpins so much of what we’ve become accustomed to tolerating from leaders and experts. Near the 32:00 mark he tells us that he’s had Shot One of the ‘vaccine’. Do they even realize that the annoying physical symptoms he’s displaying every few seconds are what most rational people are worried about as a consequence of accepting or being forced into the jab? I’ve got a neighbor with the exact same symptoms and he’s had every vaccine they’ll give you.

      Yes, Lord Sumption is in support of people being able to refusing the jab, but then makes it clear that “tempting” people to come out via masks and vaccines is his main concern. Knowing nothing about him personally, all I can say is that being in the Peerage is a red-flag. I love the part where he says that the reason corporations will be enforcing compliance through vaccination-passes, even if government doesn’t, will be due to the desire of their vaccinated customers to feel safe.

      I can just see the flea-markets selling essentials to non-vaccinated people in a sort of gray-market surrounding cities like existing homeless camps do in Seattle and Portland.

      Hey, there’s a business idea. Go long canvas and paracord.

      Fast Eddy, you gonna be working the dance-hall tent or are ya going the Masada route?

      • Ed says:

        you are right the judge s twitching non stop

        • Tim Groves says:

          I wonder if he developed that twitch post-injection?

          I also found Lord Sumpton’s acceptance of the Covid-19 narrative, the efficacy of the “vaccines”, and especially the need to allow discrimination against the unvaxed to be enormous red flags. He seems well out of touch on these issues or else he’s acting as a gatekeeper—saying effectively, you can go this far in your resistance but no further.

          He’s got a lovely speaking voice though. Genuine gentry.

  21. India asks refiners to diversify, cut reliance on Middle East oil after OPEC+ decision

    NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India has asked state refiners to speed up the diversification of oil imports to gradually cut their dependence on the Middle East after OPEC+ decided last week to largely continue production cuts in April, two sources said.

    • The problem is that there is a worldwide supply of oil. It differs in some characteristics, so some oil works better with one refinery and some works better for a different kind of refinery, and also gives a different mix of end products.

      Ultimately, though, too little oil will lead to fewer goods transported and fewer jobs for people. At some point, it is likely to lead to the debt bubble that holds up asset prices collapsing as well.

  22. All is Dust says:

    I despair. From the Telegraph:

    “Ellie is one of a growing number of teenage girls who have developed tic disorders or Tourette’s syndrome over the course of the pandemic.

    In an article in the Archives of Disease in Childhood journal published yesterday, psychiatrists at Great Ormond Street and Evelina children’s hospitals in London report seeing referrals for tics nearly double since the start of the pandemic and describe an “explosion of tics” triggered, they believe, by anxiety.

    Tics, often violent and distressing, can range from swearing, screaming and repetitive face, nose and neck twitching, to self-flagellation or ‘leg-drops’ where the sufferer’s legs give way and they drop suddenly to the floor.”

    Link via MSN:


    • hillcountry says:

      I guess we couldn’t expect the shrinks to be studying toxicology. Blame it on a vague bossa-nova (anxiety)? A Freudian wave-of-hysteria? I wonder how much fracked-fuel they’re burning to heat their homes.

      Dietary cyanogen exposure and early child neurodevelopment: An observational study from the Democratic Republic of Congo https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29664942/

      “After adjusting for biological and socioeconomic predictors at multivariable analyses, fine motor proficiency and child neurodevelopment remained the main predictors associated with the concentration of cyanide in cassava flour:”

      “The concentration of cyanide in cassava flour was significantly associated with early child neurodevelopment, motor development and cognitive ability as indicated by univariable linear regression (p < 0.05). After adjusting for biological and socioeconomic predictors at multivariable analyses, fine motor proficiency and child neurodevelopment remained the main predictors associated with the concentration of cyanide in cassava flour: coefficients of -0·08 to -.15 (p < 0·01). We also found a significant association between child linear growth, early child neurodevelopment, cognitive ability and motor development at both univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses coefficients of 1.44 to 7.31 (p < 0·01).”

      • Cyanide in cassava flour sounds awful

        Rice, especially brown rice, grown in the US (Texas especially, I believe) tends to have arsenic in it. We are told to wash it well before eating. Even at that, it is problematic to eat as a primary grain source.

      • All is Dust says:

        How long has this been going on for though? The near doubling in tic cases correlates with the lockdowns, I suspect dietary cyanogen exposure has been going on longer so wouldn’t be a causal link.

      • hillcountry says:

        @All is Dust – I wrote some of this earlier today as is my habit while digging in PubMed literature stacks. I hope it answers your question in some respects. And I hope Gail doesn’t mind the length. Part of this is relevant to the blog’s main theme, at least in a speculative sense.

        There’s still a lot to learn about this cyanide-toxicity subject. The only reason I linked the cassava paper was to make the connection to neurological illness. There’s a much larger point to be made and I’m barely scratching the surface of it over the last few months. It deserves a lot of attention, but after reading Fast Eddy’s archived comments for the last few days, I don’t even know if it’s worth any more time than what I’ve already spent.

        Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN) Symptoms > Cough, Dyspnea, Hypoxia, Fever/Chills, Muscle pain, Throat Irritation, Changes in Taste and Smell, Rapid Pulse, Neurological Effects, Dizziness, Bluish Lips, Weakness, Headache, Nausea, Loss of Appetite, Diarrhea, Numbness, Symptoms Recoverable.

        Since HCN is an environmental-trigger for all of the above problems and more, one can only imagine the implications of ignoring air-borne toxicological-considerations intermingled with this ‘virus’ snafu. The universe is sufficiently complex for problems to be converging from multiple causative-directions, and not necessarily simply a viral one.

        We all know about pollution and respiratory disease, so there’s nothing strange about this discussion, other than it not being had as far as I can see. It is common knowledge Wuhan was having mass-protests about just that air-pollution subject prior to the Covid thing.

        We face depletion of surplus-energy at economically-viable values, which I think led to the Hail Mary Pass known as the fracking-boom, which increased HCN-pollution by we haven’t a clue, but presumably a whole lot for a number of reasons. That’s a simple train of events; one that can be easily added to the more normative array-of-opinion under discussion: i.e., the view that viruses are merely artifacts of biological stress (what’s causing that stress?), or the view that viruses are one type of ‘clean-up’ crew (what are they cleaning-up?), or the view that viruses are only exogenous and purely pathological in following their zombie-code imperative, etc.

        But here’s where it gets interesting in my way of thinking. A quick example of a search-methodology used during my study of “Vitamin A” toxicity, mainly done via the NIH-archive known as PubMed.

        After a query of “Cyanide and Covid” that showed ZERO papers, I did a PubMed search of “Cyanide and Virus” that yielded 415-results. Wow!! Big difference, there’s a lot there, maybe take someone a year to comb through it. On the first page of those titles at PubMed is one from AUTOPHAGY published in early 2019, (excerpted and linked below).

        I’d bet a lot of money there’s toxicity-gold in some of the rest of those 415 “Cyanide and Virus” studies. I’d bet another pile of money that some of them relate directly to whatever this Covid-19 thing is, or isn’t. BTW, there’s 240 papers on a query of “Hydrogen Cyanide and Virus”. I’d start there because if pollution is ramping (and confusing) illness-numbers one would be more likely to find it under HCN-research.

        One question after looking into research like this and the stats above is:

        How is it that no one is DIRECTLY studying Cyanide-Toxicity and Covid-19?? I mean, not even ONE study? Nothing for Hydrogen Cyanide either, which, of the two, is my main concern. C’mon, you can find studies on the effect of Ginko Biloba on the eye of a Zebra fish.

        The system would have to be DELIBERATELY NOT FUNDING the question; because it’s THAT obvious and the cornucopia-of-funding is endless. This may be a taboo-subject, but there’s ways around it.

        If you take the time to read the linked-paper, you’ll see how often the term CA2+ comes up. Way down the paper they say:

        “Altogether, these results suggested that M2-enhanced innate immunity required the production of Ca2+ ….”

        Further on they say:

        “Taken together, these data indicated that M2 antagonized the autophagy process to enhance the innate immune response, ….”

        It isn’t until the conclusion where we run across the cyanide connection.

        They say:

        “Mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) is required for MAVS-mediated antiviral signaling [66], we also analyzed the MMP affected by M2 via MMP-sensitive dye (tetramethylrhodamine methylester [TMRM]) staining, and showed that CCCP (carbonyl cyanide m-chlorophenylhydrazone), a protonophore that dissipates MMP, dramatically collapsed the MMP, whereas M2 slightly increased the MMP, depending on its ion channel activity (Figure S2(c)), which was in line with M2-mediated mitochondrial fusion and enhancement of MAVS signaling.”

        It becomes obvious from those excerpts that one would want to query “Cyanide and CA2+” and see how much is known about those two.

        That query yields 2,199 papers as of this morning. I’d bet the intrepid explorer will find not only useful, but damning knowledge there about cyanide’s effect on CA2+, and thus, it’s effect in this ‘pandemic’ via HCN intoxication due to excess burning and refining of toxic fracked-fuels. Increased HCN is due to the associated NOx chemistry as the story goes.

        And we also have the AUTOPHAGY paper further informing us that HYPOXIA affects the autophagy signaling-molecules. THAT should be ringing lots of bells – but no, just silence so far.

        HYPOXIA = HCN when I see it these days, unless it’s been carefully discounted. We really need to discover if there is a sub-clinical aspect to HCN-toxicity, (chronic versus acute to simplify) and especially if it is also about cumulative-damage and thresholds-of-tolerance, as is the case for so-called “vitamin” A. I’d make an educated guess it must be similar. If so, living anywhere near a refinery or power-plant would be a really a bad idea. Understanding that “Vitamin A” can take you down OVER TIME (that’s key) in the worst way and not even bother your sister or brother; reminds me that there are many enzymatic, nutritional, organ-size, genetic and other variables involved in anything disease related.

        HCN-susceptibility in terms of chronic-damage is most likely similar to what we’ve found is true of “Vitamin A”; with it’s characteristically milder and recurrent problems, like childhood eczema, which exist outside of the more serious teratogenic and hypervitaminosis-A risks occurring at higher intakes that constitute acute exposures. NIH has defined as a potential hepato-toxic risk over time as an intake of a mere 12mg-per-day of Retinol. Pediatricians are about the only ones in the medical profession who are hip to the 10x-dangers of Retinol’s active derivative – Retinoic Acid – which is right up there with Thalidomide on the published lists.

        People eating a “healthy” diet with some cheese and kale and fish-oil and popping supplements loaded with “VA”, can go over that 12mg-per-day number easily and not even suspect it. People eating processed food are in even greater danger in many cases. Last I looked the requirement to list “VA” is now voluntary on manufacturer’s food-labels.

        “Vitamin A” is found to be cumulatively-hazardous as well, especially in the sub-clinical version, where its role underlying multiple auto-immune “conditions” is fairly well-documented if you do your own work on it; and though its auto-immune effects are growing by leaps-and-bounds by the year, almost as fast as medicine can name them, medical-research is reluctant to divulge the truth. It’s just not funded. The mistakes and such go back too far; including fortification of our food-supply and not properly discounting the unknown-at-the-time Retinoic Acid when the original animal experiments were done in the 20’s and 30’s.

        Maybe the youngsters will figure this HCN thing out before we’re gardening in the Olduvai Gorge. It would nice if the “VA” story got some serious traction too, before what remains of our population is impoverished adults with autistic children caring for Altzheimer’s-stricken elderly family members (both “conditions” have multiple “VA” causation-vectors). HCN research has become a priority for me since I ran across Jim West’s books and blog. BTW, he’s referenced multiple times in the 2007 book by Engelbrecht and Kohnlein – Virus Mania.

        Here’s the paper from Autophagy with a couple of excerpts:


        Title: Influenza M2 protein regulates MAVS-mediated signaling pathway through interacting with MAVS and increasing ROS production


        “Multiple factors such as nutritional deprivation, growth factor depletion, hypoxia, proteins aggregates, damaged organelles, DNA damage and infection could initiate an autophagic response [13], and in turn the aggregated proteins such as MAVS aggregates could be degraded and cleared in the autophagic process [14]. ROS [15,16] and intracellular Ca2+ [15,17] can serve as signaling molecules in autophagy, regulating inflammation and innate immunity.”

        The paper even has this interesting bit about chloroquine:

        “To explore whether M2 could mediate autophagy initiation, we knocked down the autophagy genes ATG5 and BECN1, and detected the LC3B lipidation in the M2-expressing cells that were treated with or without chloroquine (CQ, an inhibitor blocking the fusion of autophagosome with lysosome), respectively.”

        • I am afraid I don’t know about all of these things. My dermatologist told me years ago to stop taking multiple vitamins because I was getting too much vitamin A. My skin was turning yellow. Presumably, I don’t get too much vitamin A from kale, collard greens, sweet potatoes and winter squash.

          • hillcountry says:

            Gail – you seem to be firing on all cylinders, so I wouldn’t be concerned unless you identify an auto-immune condition. That can be a good signal that the liver is maxxed-out and the body is not handling the excess very well. I used to use the Self-Data Nutrition Site to add things up after I got bored on zero-A. We’ve identified a number of protective mechanisms including adipose tissue. Unfortunately, the weeping and shedding of eczema is another. Better going out through the skin than burning a hole somewhere else. I’ve got a couple of binders full of ‘radioactive’ papers implicating Retinoic Acid in everything from meibomian gland atrophy to colitis. Anywhere there is epithelial tissue basically, but also anywhere there is a cell membrane, including intra-cellular ones. This RA-toxicity is what the 7000 lawsuits against Hoffman-Roche were about. Accutane is basically Retinoic Acid and some people suffer over a decade later. Those survivor-blogs are difficult but instructive to read.

          • Nehemiah says:

            Skin can turn yellow or even orange from excessive beta carotene (I don’t know about preformed vit A). A few years ago, a study found that people who take one a day type vitamins, presumably “for insurance,” die younger than those who do not. In another study, smokers who took beta carotene as supplements got more lung cancer, but those who got their carotene by eating veggies got less. Also, to get changes in skin color from eating vegetables would require you to eat a LOT of those veggies, although you can do it with carrot juice because juice is a more concentrated source.

        • racoon#9.5meg says:

          Wow thats some post! Thank you! appreciate it very much.

          • hillcountry says:

            Thanks racoon#9,5meg – appreciate that. Much respect to my mentor – Grant Genereux – an oil geologist up in Alberta Canada who wrote Poisoning for Profits (free on his blog). Grant resolved eczema, chronic kidney disease, fatigue, failing eyesight, whitening hair, brain fog and joint-pains by adopting a zero-A diet. He’s been on it for six years to prove a point, but most all of his illnesses disappeared within 2-years and some improved considerably much earlier.

            • Tim Groves says:

              I came across Poisoning for Profits a few weeks ago. I downloaded it as a book length PDF and I’m reading it a bit at a time. It’s an amazing thesis that Vitamin A is not a vitamin but a poison. Grant hasn’t convinced me, but he’s made me wary enough of Vit A to avoid it where possible. However, would a zero-A diet require us to give up carrots and pumpkins, which a packed full of the precursor beta-carotene? I haven’t read that far yet.

            • Also green leafy vegetables. I am sure I eat a lot of vitamin A. I definitely do not take vitamin pills with vitamin A in them.

              The people who lived long lives in in Southern Japan ate a diet that was 70% purple sweet potatoes. If they ate orange sweet potatoes, they would perhaps have gotten a vitamin A overload.

        • All is Dust says:


          Thanks for the response, I see where you are coming from now. I find the subject of toxicology fascinating so I will read through your links.

          I get the impression that our diminishing health comes down to a number of factors; food being one, environmental degradation (in which I include air pollution) being another, general activity (or lack thereof) being another. Such that our policy makers are ignorant (overwhelmed / ‘mis-guided’) by the complexities of health that they simply cannot respond effectively. Take SARS-CoV-2 as an example, they can focus on one element of the system and claim they are doing ‘good’ whilst completely neglecting all other elements of the system resulting in a sum-total ‘bad’ outcome – and the vast majority of people buy into it even as the people around them suffer from other ailments.

          And, if I have got the gist of your post correct, SARS-CoV-2 might just be exasperating underlying problems (which I think it is), or that SARS-CoV-2 might be disguising the actual trigger (of which I’m not so sure).

    • The teenage years are ones of high anxiety to begin with. Adding lockdowns certainly could be expected to make the situation worse.

      • Artleads says:

        AMONG TEENAGERS THERE ARE INTROVERTS. Introverts might do better than extraverts under lockdown. That might tend to lead, over time, to a more introvert society than at present.

        • Bei Dawei says:

          As an introvert myself, I fear that lack of socialiation is having negative effects on young introverts. The rise of computers and smartphones (and corresponding decline of things like sports) has already done this to some extent–what we now call “autism” has become more prominent, and there is a growing population of young men (especially) who have never learned to function socially. Think of all those adult Japanese virgins, for instance.

          • Artleads says:

            It may be that in a world so changed, what passed for socialization before could be something different now. Introverts may not need as much DIRECT human connection as extraverts. Or as most people before the advent of the very computers you speak of. 🙂 A complete rethinking of what is adaptive for children today might help.

  23. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Greensill Capital has filed for administration, warning it is in “severe financial distress”, unable to repay a $140m loan to Credit Suisse and experiencing “defaults” from its key customer GFG Alliance.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “More than 35,000 jobs, including thousands at steel mills in Britain and at Whyalla in South Australia, are at risk as GFG Group, the conglomerate controlled by British entrepreneur Sanjeev Gupta, races to refinance about $4bn owed to failed finance company Greensill.”


      • MM says:

        I do not mind. The word “Greensill” does not rhyme with “Wirecard” or “Lehman” as far as I can see.

      • Businesses should know that lending to high risk customers carries risks. If the businesses cannot repay their loans, someone has a big problem. In this case it is partly Greensill. It is also the steel mills in Britain and South Africa.

        As the failing debt works its way through the system, it leads to fewer employed people (both at Greensill and the steel mills). It also leads to less use of iron ore, coal, oil, and no doubt other commodities. The workers without wages stop going out to restaurants. They may not eat well and become more susceptible to epidemics.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Sanjeev Gupta borrowed billions from Greensill based on a false prospectus for his steel companies that were not profitable and unlikely ever to be profitable. Reminds me of the many “Indian Entrepreneurs” we had is Singapore. I firmly believe that not all such entrepreneurs are corrupt, just as I believe equally firmly that not all swans are white.

  24. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Will the real financial bubble please stand up? Exhibit A is how desperately the country needs low interest rates. It is not that it is stimulative to have low interest rates. The country needs rates to be low to avoid even greater financial distress…

    “But this is only the tip of the economic iceberg. The United States continues to borrow and print money at a furious rate.”


  25. Harry McGibbs says:

    “While the unexpected rollover of the OPEC+ production cuts sent Brent Crude prices up to $70 a barrel, the highest oil prices in more than a year could dampen global oil demand recovery, which the OPEC+ group itself still sees as fragile.”


  26. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has caused a worldwide disruption in trade flows. According to the WTO, a 9.2% decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020 is expected.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Global Trade Outlook for 2021 shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic; more optimism but significant uncertainties remain.”


    • Wow! A 9.2% decline in merchandise trade is a lot. According to the article,

      The adjustment [-9.2%] is very heterogeneous – the WTO calculates 14.7% and 11.7% declines in export volumes in the US and Europe, respectively, and a mere 4.5% drop in Asia. These developments resemble what has been known as the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09 (Baldwin 2009, 2020) during which the world GDP shrank by 1%, while the value of global trade flows slumped by some 10% in a remarkably synchronised fashion across the world (Alessandria et al. 2010).

      It turns out that the “neoclassical model” used to predict what would happen in the current case under-predicted the disruption in that took place. Not a surprise.

      I was surprised that US export volumes declined more than Europe. Of course, we knew that the drop in export volume of Asia was less. Of course, the dollar was relatively high, making exported goods expensive for buyers.

      • Mr. Little Baby Hands says:

        Maybe the trade wars and tariffs with China, Canada, Germany, etc. contributed to that.

      • hillcountry says:

        Imagine the stress in derivative markets where leverage is high and visibility is low. Long Term Capital Mgmt, AIG and Lehman come to mind.

  27. Harry McGibbs says:

    “How Bad Was 2020 for Tourism? Numbers alone cannot capture the scope of the losses that have mounted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Data sets are crude tools for plumbing the depth of human suffering, or the immensity of our collective grief.

    “But numbers can help us comprehend the scale of certain losses — particularly in the travel industry, which in 2020 experienced a staggering collapse.

    “Around the world, international arrivals are estimated to have dropped to 381 million in 2020, down from 1.461 billion in 2019 — a 74 percent decline.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “‘A long, dark year’: Twelve months into the Covid conservation crisis in Africa:

      “…When news of the Covid-19 virus first broke, few could’ve predicted such a far-reaching, long-lasting crisis. The impact around the world has been catastrophic, not least in Africa’s wildlife areas, where people’s livelihoods and vital conservation work rely on tourism money coming in.”


    • The decline in travel has been amazing. A lot of goods are transported in the same planes as people. That has to be affected too, especially if fewer planes operate. Also smaller planes hold less cargo.

      • richarda says:

        I have a few screenshots of the North Atlantic air traffic that illustrate the change in flows. Also I had ordered some special paint that had to be flown across the Atlantic in April 2020.
        People were blocked from air travel except by private jet, and it took a while to re-shuffle aircraft onto what were near “Cargo only” flights.
        There is no way a dozen passengers can pay for a transatlantic flight at cut-price rates.

  28. Johnson & Johnson to Run COVID-19 Vaccine Trials on Infants

    Johnson & Johnson is planning to conduct COVID-19 vaccine trials on infants and newborns — even though the CDC’s own data shows they face virtually zero risk of death from the virus.

    As J&J describes them, adenoviruses are “good for transporting things into humans.” In the case of the COVID vaccine, the aim is to shuttle genetic instructions — DNA coding for the coronavirus spike protein — into the cells and force the cells to make spike protein. In theory, these “self-made spike proteins” are then supposed to train the body to “detect and terminate any real SARS-CoV-2 infections before the virus wreaks havoc.”

    Although the mode of delivery is different from the lipid nanoparticles (what CNN describes as “delicate little balls of fat”) that function as a carrier system for the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines, all three FDA-authorized COVID vaccines share the same novel goal of getting the body to manufacture spike protein — a goal that represents a radical departure from traditional vaccines.

    A University of Tennessee microbiologist told Knox News that J&J’s approach is immunologically powerful, stating that the modified adenovirus vector is “about as subtle as a wrecking ball” and “very visible to the immune system.”

    According to a May 2020 article in Chemical & Engineering News, the adenovirus approach — with 30 years of study behind it — has a “checkered past,” including as a “failed gene therapy.”

    Undaunted by adenoviral vectors’ ability to generate dramatic and even fatal inflammatory effects, vaccine researchers embraced the strategy, only to discover that booster shots might “unleash an antibody attack on the vaccine itself.”

    • hillcountry says:

      Thanks for that. It got me thinking.

      “The CoV spike protein binds to a host cell membrane through a receptor-mediated interaction which allows entrance to the host cell. It has been computationally determined that the SARS-CoV-2 has similar mechanism to that of the SARS virus and the receptor to which it has the highest affinity is ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2)”


      So, on the one hand they say the spike-protein ON THE VIRUS is what facilitates viral genetic-material into the cell via docking on the ACE2 receptor. And on the other hand, they now inform us that genetically causing OUR OWN CELLS to create these same spike-proteins will somehow train our immune system to more effectively recognize the VIRUS?

      Common sense indicates that if anything, our immune system would see the cells induced to create these proteins as worthy of attacking. Are these spike-proteins not already cues to the antigenicity of the purported viral invaders? Why would anyone want to confuse the issue?

      There’s some corollary in that the illogical popular-explanations of the “science” are as confusingly contradictory as were so many aspects of the 2020 global-response. One would think that the script-writers would stay on-message, but who knows what they’re paying for that function anymore.

    • My hope that Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine would be better than Pfizer’s and Moderna’s is going downhill. Perhaps it is in some sense less experimental. But in 30 years, its success is extraordinarily limited.

  29. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


    “Bitcoin’s value briefly surpassed $1 trillion on Tuesday as the price of the cryptocurrency jumped.
    The digital coin’s price rose on Tuesday and its market capitalization went above $1 trillion in mid-morning trade Singapore time.
    It is only the second time that bitcoin’s value has surpassed a $1 trillion after hitting that milestone for the first time on Feb. 19.”

  30. racoon#9.5meg says:

    Three scientists discuss.

    Why the so called genetic sequencing of a virus is arbitrary.

    How the faux genetic sequencing rather than isolation effects the validity of virology.

    How PCR testing is not valid even under 30 cycles.

    How tests are designed to support results.

    How the “variant” identification is arbitrary.

    How the “variant” tests are arbitrary.


  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Former Pfizer Vice President Mike Yeadon discusses his thoughts as to why the lockdown was a mistake, and why the government strategies to manage the pandemic are only making things worse.

    The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is a British Government advisory body that advises central government in emergencies.

    Dr. Mike Yeadon is an Allergy & Respiratory Therapeutic Area expert, developed out of deep knowledge of biology & therapeutics and is an innovative drug discoverer with 23y in the pharmaceutical industry. He trained as a biochemist and pharmacologist, obtaining his PhD from the University of Surrey (UK) in 1988 on the CNS and peripheralpharmacology of opioids on respiration.

    Dr Yeadon then worked at the Wellcome Research Labs with Salvador Moncada with a research focus on airway hyper-responsiveness and effects of pollutants including ozone and working in drug discovery of 5-LO, COX, PAF, NO and lung inflammation. With colleagues, he was the first to detect exhaled NO in animals and later to induce NOS in lung via allergic triggers.

    Joining Pfizer in 1995, he was responsible for the growth and portfolio delivery of the Allergy & Respiratory pipeline within the company. During his tenure at Pfizer, Dr Yeadon was responsible for target selection and the progress into humans of new molecules, leading teams of up to 200 staff across all disciplines and won an Achievement Award for productivity in 2008. Under his leadership the research unit invented oral and inhaled NCEs which delivered multiple positive clinical proofs of concept in asthma, allergic rhinitis and COPD.

    He led productive collaborations such as with Rigel Pharmaceuticals (SYK inhibitors) and was involved in the licensing of Spiriva® and acquisition of the Meridica (inhaler device) company. Dr. Yeadon has published over 40 original research articles and now consults and partners with a number of biotechnology companies.

    Before working with Apellis, Dr. Yeadon was VP and Chief Scientific Officer (Allergy & Respiratory Research) with Pfizer. He left Pfizer in 2011 as Vice President & Chief Scientist for Allergy & Respiratory and eventually founded his own biotech company, Ziarco. In 2017 Dr. Yeadon sold Ziarco to Novartis, one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies.

    Watch https://lbry.tv/@TheCovidReport:0/Mike-Yeadon-Unlocked-Nov-19-2020:4

    • This video is from November 19, 2020. It evidently has not gotten many people to think about the issue. But maybe, with Dr. Bosshe’s testimony, it might make a small dent. The new book out on the origin of the virus “Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century” by Josh Rogin might help as well.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Hopefully everyone takes the Lethal Injection … it’s compassion at its pinnacle.

        • hillcountry says:

          Yeah, I hear ya, but the “experts” invariably half-ass everything they do, so, it’s more correctly posed as a choice between fighting-off the sexually-depraved cannibal hordes, or suffering a auto-immune brain-disorder where you forget the combo to the gun safe. Now if they really wanted to ‘get the job done’, they’d follow Michael Crighton’s advice in that novel about dinosaurs on an island off Central America. He fictionalized the ‘most toxic’ poison on earth being so lethal that you were dead before you felt the prick. It was an extract of the Purple Conus.

          Funny story: I worked part-time maintaining/repairing injection-“guns” in a Detroit hospital during the 1976 Swine Flu mass inoculation campaign. They were bringing huge numbers of retired nurses into the mix and training them to use this military technology. You had to ‘plump-up’ the injection-point and put the “gun” at close to a perfect 90-degrees. The lines on the first day were out the door and half-way around the building. Some significant percentage of the front-of-the-line folks were getting their upper-arm lacerated, where after they’d be bandaged-up off on the side as quietly as possible, but nonetheless visible to all. Folks slowly began peeling their way out of line, first from near the front and then increasingly from further back as the “rumor” spread about what was happening. Employees had to take the vaccine to work the program. I got sick as a dog. Last vaccine I ever let anyone put in me. Check out the Wiki on how bad that snafu went.


    • Minority Of One says:

      This is the best CV19 video you have posted so far. Difficult to think of someone who is better qualified, and he speaks easy-to-understand, plain English for the entire 32 minutes. And he has good answers for everything,

      No wonder you cannot find Dr. Yeadon anywhere in the MSM.

      • hillcountry says:

        Agree that’s a very good one, the kind that’s easy to send to anyone ya know. Thanks for the link, they canceled it over on YouTube.

  32. Merriam-Webster Dictionary Quietly Changes Definition of ‘Vaccine’ to Include COVID-19 mRNA Injection

    Merriam-Webster dictionary has quietly changed the definition of the term ‘vaccine’ to include components of the COVID-19 mRNA injection. The definition of vaccine was specifically changed due to the COVID-19 injection.

    • We now are to believe that a vaccine is whatever the medical community wants to call a vaccine.

      • JMS says:

        But… wasn’t it always that way?
        To what extent can we trust a science that depends almost entirely on corporate funders? I’d say there’s an obvious conflict of interest here, along huge credibility issues and a big etc.
        All of this medicine science stuff cries to be scrutinized with a king size magnifying glass, i think.

        • Xabier says:

          It’s their ideal business model.

          They were always trying to push statins on anyone over 45 (‘Just to be safe!’) and the side-effects were airily dismissed as ‘unproven’.

          They have no problem at all with a permanently medicated, sick population.

          Nor with causing death and serious injury, just so long as they can asset-strip you.

        • hillcountry says:

          I always wondered where this guy bought his magnifying glass.


          Who would buy a used-car from that guy?

      • Isn’ t’ it science progress ? Albert Einstein gave a new definition of gravity. Gene therapy isexpected to be a way of progress in medicine, and subject to ressearch for many years, especially for cancer curation.

        Nevertheless, I agree it would be wise to test longer what could be the long term side effects of these new vaccines, according to the new definition. What the rush, if you’re not particularly in danger, as FE says.

      • Xabier says:

        They are the makers of reality after all.

        ‘We have a new,cutting edge, vaccine for you today which has undergone an intensive week of regulatory review and approval, so nothing to fear!

        We are so excited at this great medical advance, that we simply can’t wait to give it to you, and you should consider yourselves very lucky indeed!

        Unlike others, it is delivered as you kneel, to the back of the head.

        This fantastic, innovative, delivery method guarantees that results will be almost instantaneous, and you need never fear falling ill again! ‘

      • racoon9.5meg says:

        Come on now.. Its THERAPY. The THERAPY formally know as “electro shock”. Why was that name changed?


    • racoon#9.5meg says:

      Winston you suffer a mental illness. You harbor a delusion that at one time there was a different definition of vaccine. I am here to help you.

    • Nehemiah says:

      Although I am aware of one example where the dictionary definition lagged common usage for decades, apparently for political reasons, the dictionary makers usually do adhere to their philosophy of describing common usage, not prescribing usage or sticking to old usages long after they have changed in practice, and I reckon 99% of the population routinely refers to the mRNA vaccine as a vaccine.

      BTW, the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not mRNA; they opted for a traditional approach to vaccine development, if that makes anyone feel any better.

      • racoon#9.5meg says:

        “BTW, the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not mRNA; they opted for a traditional approach to vaccine development, if that makes anyone feel any better.”

        Adenovirus. Same as Sputnik V. “gene therapy” genetic modifier. Not “traditional” vaccine in any sense of the word.

        • Nehemiah says:

          Adenovirus infections are extremely common, and usually mild, and we have coexisted with them for a long time, probably thousands of years.

          For example:
          Who Gets Adenovirus Infections?

          Adenovirus infections can affect children of any age. But they’re more common in babies and young children. Most kids have had at least one adenovirus infection before age 10. There are many different types of adenoviruses, so people can have more than one adenovirus infection.

          Adenovirus infections can happen at any time of the year.
          What Are the Signs & Symptoms of Adenovirus Infections?

          The symptoms of adenoviral infections depend on the type of adenovirus and the part of the body affected. Respiratory symptoms are most common.

          Upper respiratory infections can range from mild cold symptoms to flu-like symptoms. These include:

          sore throat (pharyngitis)
          a congested, runny nose (rhinitis)
          a cough
          ear infection

          Adenoviruses can also cause lower respiratory infections such as bronchiolitis, croup, or pneumonia.

  33. Covid 19 coronavirus: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern reveals enough Pfizer vaccines for every New Zealander

    Ardern said she has called 2021 the “year of the vaccine” and said the Government was making good progress on this.

    The Government will share an updated vaccine rollout plan on Wednesday.

    She said vaccines will be an important part of New Zealand’s defence against the “tricky” Covid-19 virus.

    “It’s not going to slow our timetable at all,” she said when asked if the Pfizer strategy would slow the rollout down.

    Ardern said the Government had been able to take a step back and look at what vaccines had worked well around the world – that had helped influence the Pfizer purchase decision.

    She said there were still other brands of vaccine that had been purchased, but they might be shifted out for use until 2022.

    “Every country is going to take their own approach,” she said on the vaccine rollout.

    Hipkins said the Government was not looking at increasing the length of managed isolation stays at this stage, despite evidence that the UK variant tail was longer.

    One border worker told Ardern that Covid-19 had “taken a toll on us all” and they were grateful for the vaccine being offered to them first.

    New Zealand’s previous approach was to secure a portfolio of vaccines and the other vaccine provider agreements were still in place.

    “No countries are safe until all countries are safe,” Ardern said on donations of vaccines to the Pacific.

    • Xabier says:

      Darling St Jacinda – and how lucky those hard-working border officers are!

      Such a big heart, giving to to them first as a reward for their sterling service in the defence of NZ!

      Dark, very dark, comedy is perhaps the only way to see this and stay sane.

      If they had brains, they wouldn’t take the vaccine: as they are eager, despite a whole year in which to work out that things just don’t add up, it might be said that they deserve their fate -although the sin of this crime is on the head of Jacinda, the puppet and manipulator.

      Interesting to see that they are trying to keep up the pretense of national policy: so many different paths leading to Hell: where there is one ruler……

  34. Biden forgets the name of the Pentagon, as well as the name of his secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      his handlers surely must be trying to keep him on an easy daily schedule and plenty of sleep probably 10+ hours and good nutrition and especially the MEDS he needs to keep him functioning at such a “high level”.

      and this is the best it’s gonna be, only mentally downhill from here to his grave.

      the downward process seems to be accelerating.

      • D. Stevens says:

        Dementia can seem slow at first, taking years, but eventually the little tricks like reminder notes and medications to keep things going no longer work. The collapse and rapid decline can be shocking when it finally comes.

    • racoon9.5meg says:

      Well these are the endearing qualities that allowed him to have more votes cast for him than Obama. Its clear that the people dont want a super intelligent president with a great sense of humor and a dynamic presence. AWWW isnt he cute!

      Cue president Harris in 3 2 1. Any one surprised? Even the sheep? Yawn.

      Orange man bad.

  35. Duncan Idaho says:

    Texas electric bills were $28 billion higher under deregulation – “Texas froze by design”


    It’s Texas– don’t know if this can be universally applied.

  36. NomadicBeer says:

    I wonder if the covid response is the perfect example of elite panic -https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03057240.2011.541774#:~:text=Solnit%20uses%20the%20term%20elite,129)

    “Solnit uses the term elite panic to refer to a fear of the general public possessed by those with influence and authority; central to this notion is the possibility, not necessarily the actuality, that the general public will panic”

    Basically the rich value their possessions and privileges above other human lives and they will do anything to preserve their property.
    A good example is Katrina where the army was protecting the rich neighborhoods from looting (which was very rare) while the people died.

  37. Gerard d'Olivat says:

    My filmcompany produced a beautiful film about the Southern continent.


    • Thanks! This is a story related to Antarctica. The clip with the film says:

      In 1931, a documentary filmmaker hears of J.C. Sullivan who may know the fate of the Hollandia, a Norwegian ship that sailed to Antarctica in 1905 and disappeared. J.C. Sullivan was the carpenter on that ill-fated voyage and is the last known surviving crewmember of the Hollandia. The filmmaker interviews Sullivan who is also able to supply him with canisters of old film footage which back up the unbelievable accounts that Sullivan describes.

      The film, made in 1993, is presented as a 1931 documentary of a series of events that occurred in 1905. The footage of the fictional expedition is from other polar expeditions of the time. These clips are interspersed with the interview of J.C. Sullivan.

  38. MG says:

    For me, the year of 2020 ist the year of the limits of the human adaptability, as the ageing populations around the world mean the end of the flexibility. Behind the scene of the debt driven energy production, the weaker and weaker humans emerge.

    Last week, one of my friends died on Covid-19. He had an electric BMW and was very happy about it. He also liked that the infrastructure for electric cars is underdeveloped, which meant for him that he can enjoy his electric car because this limit makes the electric cars less attractive, he told me.

    This virus is a confirmation of the fact that the humans are not longer adaptable, as they were before. No matter how green or hi-tech you are.

    • Slow Paul says:

      Sorry to hear about your friend.

    • Green, hi-tech, or rich doesn’t really protect a person. Being young, of normal weight, with adequate vitamin D usually seems to be helpful. Maybe some luck helps as well. I am sorry to hear about the passing of your friend.

      • hillcountry says:

        There’s a Vitamin K side to the story as well. Patrick Theut is keeping track of the studies at


        • I think that this article is mostly about vitamin K1. A person gets K1 from green leafy vegetables, plus some other plant foods. It is not a common supplement in cereals.

          There may also be a need for K2 if a person is talking vitamin D. The combination of K2 + vitamin D + calcium seems to be important for getting calcium into the bones, rather than into blood vessels. K2 seems to be found in the Japanese food natto and in various other forms of fermented foods such as sauerkraut, ki-chi, and aged cheeses.

          • Harry says:

            That’s right.
            For years I have trusted a small company that has been running an online blog about biochemistry for quite a while and only later started developing very good nutritional supplements.
            I take 1 (moderate!) Multivitamin pill and 2 drops of vitamin D3 / K2 every day.

            The problem with fermented products such as sauerkraut that comes from the supermarket is that they are pasteurized and therefore hardly have anything to do with the original variants. In some organic markets you can buy unpasteurized products, otherwise you have to do it yourself.

    • VFatalis says:

      “This virus is a confirmation of the fact that the humans are not longer adaptable”

      What a load of BS. One can no longer have doubt that you’re also pushing the covid scare narrative like others here (wink wink, my own private),

      Virus dangerous ! Vaccines wonderful ! Ivermectin useless !

      Comments section of alt-media and blogs are littered by big pharma bots these days. Spitting out stinking propaganda to please their masters.

      Pathetic to see how low humanity has fallen.

      • MG says:

        The populations are ageing and genetically deteriorating due to a better and better healthcare. This is logical, no propaganda.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Not necessarily.
          Evolutionarily, we know that humanity went through a bottleneck some tens of thousands of years ago. That gave us low genetic diversity – not as low as tigers for example but quite low.

          So a period of exponential growth supported by better healthcare will increase diversity in the population.

          When the inevitable population collapse happens there are more traits to select from so hopefully future humans (if they exist) will not suffer from the “founder effect”.

          That is just my optimistic interpretation. I know we have no power to change that happens so I am trying to look on the bright side.

  39. In 2018, Diplomats Warned of Risky Coronavirus Experiments in a Wuhan Lab. No One Listened.

    On January 15, in its last days, President Donald Trump’s State Department put out a statement with serious claims about the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The statement said the U.S. intelligence community had evidence that several researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory were sick with Covid-like symptoms in autumn 2019—implying the Chinese government had hidden crucial information about the outbreak for months—and that the WIV lab, despite “presenting itself as a civilian institution,” was conducting secret research projects with the Chinese military. The State Department alleged a Chinese government cover-up and asserted that “Beijing continues today to withhold vital information that scientists need to protect the world from this deadly virus, and the next one.”


    • This link seems to be the Politico article related to the Yahoo article Herbie quotes from in the comment below.

      If a person reads this link, it is adapted from part of a book that is to be released tomorrow, called, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century by Josh Rogin.

      The book excerpt tells part of the story of what happened. In terms of naming names, it gets as far as saying:

      But many of the scientists who spoke out to defend the lab were Shi’s research partners and funders, like the head of the global public health nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak; their research was tied to hers, and if the Wuhan lab were implicated in the pandemic, they would have to answer a lot of tough questions.

      A person wonders what the rest of the book has to say.

      One thing struck me as strange. According to Pollitico, “Josh Rogin is a columnist for the Global Opinions section at the Washington Post.” The Washington Post comes across as very liberal. I doubt that there is anything the Anthony Fauci has said that the Washington Post doesn’t agree with. How will this book be received by Rogin’s employer?

      • I also find it very suspicious that Peter Dashak from EHA – the main person responsible for WIV subsidies is at the same time chief of investigative mission in China. Isn’t it strange to assume that this guy might be even remotely objective?

  40. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Oh boy….now we know….

    Knowing the significance of the Wuhan virologists’ discovery, and knowing that the WIV’s top-level biosafety laboratory (BSL-4) was relatively new, the U.S. Embassy health and science officials in Beijing decided to go to Wuhan and check it out. In total, the embassy sent three teams of experts in late 2017 and early 2018 to meet with the WIV scientists, among them Shi Zhengli, often referred to as the “bat woman” because of her extensive experience studying coronaviruses found in bats.
    When they sat down with the scientists at the WIV, the American diplomats were shocked by what they heard. The Chinese researchers told them they didn’t have enough properly trained technicians to safely operate their BSL-4 lab. The Wuhan scientists were asking for more support to get the lab up to top standards.
    The diplomats wrote two cables to Washington reporting on their visits to the Wuhan lab. More should be done to help the lab meet top safety standards, they said, and they urged Washington to get on it. They also warned that the WIV researchers had found new bat coronaviruses could easily infect human cells, and which used the same cellular route that had been used by the original SARS coronavirus.
    Taken together, those two points—a particularly dangerous groups of viruses being studied in a lab with real safety problems—were intended as a warning about a potential public-health crisis, one of the cable writers told me. They kept the cables unclassified because they wanted more people back home to be able to read and share them, according to the cable writer. But there was no response from State Department headquarters and they were never made public. And as U.S.-China tensions rose over the course of 2018, American diplomats lost access to labs such as the one at the WIV.
    “The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.” The world would be paying attention soon enough—but by then, it would be too late.

    Not for the Federal Reserve, it was just in time and helped them a difficult situation👍 to point the finger elsewhere👉

    • Somehow, this story fits in very well with all of the other stories we have heard. A problem just waiting to happen.

      When does this information ever land on the front pages of US newspapers?

      • racoon#9.5meg says:

        Yahoo is MSM. Its only partially coming out because they cant reveal.

        Gain of function research.
        Who financed the wuhan lab bypassing USA gain of function research ban.
        The peer relationships in between wuhan and carolina.
        The relationship in between big pharma and gain of function research.

        Ive got no enmity for professionals who were pursuing their passion in research. Everyone screws up. When you screw up if your a adult you immediately take responsibility and do your best to fix it. Hell if they came clean i might even consider accepting a VAX. (not really)

        Looks like they have decided its china that takes the fall but their laundry is clean.

    • racoon#9.5meg says:

      We have no idea which lab the virus came from. Where is the reporting on gain of function research its relationship to the wuhan lab where the finance came from. Where is the reporting on the clear bypass on the USA moratorium by gain of function researchers in the USA many of which are considered leaders and knowledge holders? Where is the reporting on the clear relationship in between vaccine producers and gain of function research?

      The premise of gain of function research is that they create very bad viruses in the lab so they may understand them if they occur naturally.

      How does this change when its very clear that the gain of function research is responsible for a pandemic?

      To blame china for the pandemic without bringing all of the gain of function research, funding, and mechanisms to light is just more deception. This thing could have come out of dietrich as easy as it came out of that BSL4.

      You want to get back to normal? Thats never going to happen while this very very bad habit of gain of function research continues. Its like hiding the car keys from a alcoholic so they are not a risk. If you really want to end the risk the bad habit has to be ended.

      • Nehemiah says:

        “We have no idea which lab the virus came from.” — Sure we do. It was the same Wuhan lab where “bat lady” (English translation of her nickname, I have forgotten her Chinese name) worked. She even gave speeches on her research before this virus escaped. No mystery. CCP is trying to obfuscate.

    • racoon#9.5meg says:

      I doubt the whole thing. Oh yea US embassy officials in beijing decided to take a look at the BSL4 lab. Since when did a embassy official care about a lab? Since when did they know anything about it? Is china just letting the embassy personnel under their favorite pres ever trump inspect labs and weapon system when they please?

      What part of this makes any sense?

      The BSL4 lab is just more tantalizing fear porn.

      Something is killing people in a somewhat new way. Its possible its a virus. Its more possible its MM waves IMO.

      It would be interesting to test this hypothesis. Look at the MM wave density in brazil VS the deaths. WE know wuhan was the 5g rollout and has very high iradiance. Ditto for NYC. How about Italy?

      When the new 5G phones roll out will a new “variant” appear?

  41. MG says:

    The domestic violence is on the rise in Slovakia: 40 % higher than before.


    “The head of state pointed out that the incidence of domestic violence is rising worldwide and the Slovak Republic has not escaped it.

    Čaputová reminded that the General Prosecutor’s Office also informed that the number of reports of crimes related to domestic violence is higher by 40 percent.”

    • When things are not going well, domestic violence seems to rise.

      • She is of “Soros jugend” pedigree a planted agent to create havoc, destabilize the country, don’t take her claims seriously..

        Basically it’s the similar BLM/trans/.. nonsense slightly adjusted to fit CEE regional realities.

  42. Fred says:

    It seems to me that we can’t just create more currency to get ourselves out of FF affordability. As I understand it, it comes down to how much oil equivalent it takes to get the oil out of the ground, transport it, process it, and distribute it. At one time, in the not too distant past, it required 1 barrel of oil to get 100 barrels out of the ground. Now, 1 barrel will get 5 to 10 out of the ground. (could some one please give me a better estimate?) Our complex system has surely increased the processing and distribution cost as well. (environmental regs alone) Is the energy return on oil invested even worse for renewables such as wind and solar?

    • I wish we could leave the EROEI idea. There are too many false ideas associated with it.

      Let’s go back to what Hyman Rickover said in 1957, only a year after Hubbert wrote his famous paper.


      For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account. Oil and natural gas will disappear first, coal last. There will be coal left in the earth, of course. But it will be so difficult to mine that energy costs would rise to economically intolerable heights, so that it would then become necessary either to discover new energy sources or to lower standards of living drastically.

      The issue is how much the inflation adjusted cost of extraction (including all taxes needed to keep the system going, and all reinvestment to maintain pipelines and extraction, and all returns to shareholders) is rising. At one time, the inflation adjusted cost of extraction was low enough that oil could profitably be sold at less than $20 per barrel. According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflation adjusted price (in 2019 $) from 1956 was 18.15 and was $17.24 in 1957. At double this price, we are talking about $36 per barrel oil.

      The year that world oil prices first exceeded $36 per barrel was 1974. The world has been adding a huge amount of complexity since 1974, to try to work around this issue. Wage disparity has soared. Debt levels have soared. Interest rates continued to rise until 1980-1981 because the Federal Reserve was trying to choke back the inflation in oil, food and home prices that was taking place. Wages were inflating greatly during this period, as well.

      After 1981, interest rates have fallen and debt has risen. As far as I can see, that is the main thing that has kept the economy from falling apart. All of the stories about an EROEI of 10:1 or 3:1 being good enough are based on conjecture. We left a sustainable system probably in 1970, when the US 48 states oil production peaked, but it took a while for this to be realized.

      I might mention that the period between 1986 and 2002 was one in which oil prices were mostly under $36 per barrel. This was the period during which the Soviet Union was declining in influence and ultimately collapsed in 1991. This situation (which was caused by oil prices that were too low for the Soviet Union as a producer, together with perhaps other causes, such as communism not working well) kept oil in the ground, so that the world supply did not fall as soon as it might have.

      I don’t think that the world economy can operate when the base price of oil is above $36 per barrel, unless all kinds of financial manipulations are performed to hide the problem. Eventually, our ability to hide the problem runs out. That is where we are now.

      • Marco says:

        Now 70 dollari Is huge no? Double of 36

        • It is hard to see how $70 oil can last. Something will soon “break.”

          • Kowalainen says:

            Crank that sucker all the way to $200 and watch it fall apart.


          • Marco says:

            A triangole of Doom. But i dont Know if price Will rise for producers or price go down for economia

          • MM says:

            Gail, one last question:
            If the law of supply and demand “holds” and there would be no more supply physically available to meet the demand, would the price not rise indefinitly until the “product” has to be taken out of the commodities market ?

            • The “law of supply and demand” doesn’t work for energy products. Cheap to produce energy products are what enable jobs that pay well. When energy supplies drop, jobs that pay well drop. Wage disparity rises. The wage disparity pushes energy prices back down.

              It is faith that prices will rise enough to cover costs that keeps the system from collapsing completely, at least so far. More and more investors lose money on the operation.

          • john vance says:

            According to EOG Resources CEO there is currently 10,000,000 barrels a Day of excess capacity at the ready – based on this they are not willing to increase their own production. EOG also has a large new Natural Gas field with 21TCF reserves that they say breaks even at $1.25/mcf – incredibly cheap!

        • Marco, dollari schmollari.. not backed by resources, products nor tax or anything, it’s all just digital make believe stuff nowadays. You are correct into your further comment about the ever sloping oil price “triangle of doom” mega trend eventually rupturing to negative territory, then probably comes the end game – collapse.

      • Ano737 says:

        Thank you for this, Gail. While you’ve addressed this issue many times, I think this is the most clear and lucid explanation to date.

      • Denial says:

        I don’t think that the world economy can operate when the base price of oil is above $36 per barrel, unless all .

        Where does that number come from? I see the ptb manipulating oil today. Are you sure everything is transparent? It’s really hard to see what is going on when you only get half of the story

      • Herbert Charles Goodrich says:

        Gail, can you provide some of the problems with “EROEI” and why its a bad metric? It seems to be an easy metric to help understand the oil predicament.

        • I know Charlie Hall well. He certainly means well with the EROEI metric. And there are some concepts, such as diminishing returns, that a person can teach with the EROEI metric. If a person looks at the same oil well over a period of years, and if the method of extraction stays the same, the EROEI will tend to fall as the oil is depleted.

          The problem is that the EROEI idea has been carried too far. I have described the EROEI calculation as being as similar counting tops of icebergs, when you have no idea how deep within the water the icebergs are floating. https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/12/21/eroei-calculations-for-solar-pv-are-misleading/

          Another issue is the quality of energy produced. We, in fact, need many different kinds of energy to operate our current system. There are many different parts of the petroleum mixture that are used in many different applications. Different types of coal are also used differently, in steel making, in making fertilizer, and in creating electricity. Wind and solar are so unstable in their output that a large amount of adjustment is needed before they can be added to the gird. They cannot possibly be stand-alone suppliers for grid electricity. They certainly cannot replace oil and coal. Many processes used in industry require higher heat than electricity alone will provide, for example.

          Furthermore, if we were to change to any other system, there would be a huge up-front energy cost for the transition. Even adding lots of electric cars would require a lot of investment in charging infrastructure, because most people don’t have garages in which to do their own charging. Building all of this up front infrastructure and the timing involved, has never been considered in any of the EROEI calculations.

          I suspect that one of the motivations for the EROEI calculations was the fact that there was a variable in the Limits to Growth calculation that if it became to high, caused the economy to crash. The variable in the EROEI calculation was the “investment in resources” divided by the “output of resources” in a given calendar period could not exceed a certain ratio, or the system would crash. This ratio, it turned out, could not be higher than 5% in the base scenario, which seems to be similar to the situation we are in today. This would be equivalent to a 20:1 overall EROEI in some sense, if it could really be measured this way. I find it strange that if the system as a whole seems to require an EROEI of something like 20:1, we can even consider adding energy products with much lower EROEI.

          The EROEI calculation is way too simple to do what people want it to do, unfortunately. And the guidance as to what EROEI is “acceptable” is on terribly shaky ground.

          I find it hard to believe that wind and solar are in any way helpful to the electric grid, except possibly in a few remote locations where the only other type of electricity available is created by burning oil. In these locations, it can be used to replace part of the oil that otherwise would be burned.

      • Kowalainen says:

        It is the diminishing marginal utility of adding more useless eaters to the system which only “serve” to increase the extraction pressure and associated cost, while depletion takes a nosedive from worse to atrocious.

        Would you like to own an oil company when the return on investment is abysmal? So why not flock to the “renewables”, who cares if it is a tractable way “forward”, while the world begrudgingly realizes the importance and discovers the true value of oil and natgas.

        It is about time to:



    • Nehemiah says:

      It is the total energy system’s EROI that most matters, but as for solar and wind specifically, the numbers I usually see, I think from Hall, are 6 for solar and 18 for wind. Solar might be a bit higher, and I am sure wind has been overestimated, probably by quite a bit. Both are very materials intensive, and as we scale up production, those materials will need more and more energy to extract. Also, energy to decommission old wind and PV since they produce a lot of waste at the end of their lifecycle. But the big energy adjustment that needs to be made comes when you try to scale them up to supply the grid with more than 25% of its power. Then you have to bring on storage, and that drops the already modest EROI by a lot. For example, I think I saw in one place that wind would drop from 18 to 4. Solar drops too. Subsistence peasants have been calculated a 2, so civilization is going to require considerably more than 2. Weissberg once calculated that electricity is no longer worth producing once EROI falls below 7. As for oil, Tainter says, citing someone else, that the EROI of oil has now declined to 15 somewhere in this presentation:

      • Kowalainen says:

        And then you’ll need the entire oil fueled infrastructure and industrial base to make that hopium relevant in the first place.

        Cut oil and gas to the EU and watch zero Vestas wind turbines being produced. Forever.

      • Artleads says:

        How do I copy this?

      • Kowalainen says:

        Societal complexity == useless eatery by bean counters and herder shenanigans. It is death by pretending MOAR worthless life has “value”.

        Technological complexity == Inevitable irrelevance of useless eatery plus making low EROEI extraction possible. It is life, synthetic evolution in essence. Doesn’t care, just is.

        Jack the price of oil to $200 a pop and send the useless eatery and bean counting straight to poverty.


        Now; you don’t have to agree with me, but then prepare to wipe the tears of being wrong.


  43. MM says:

    It is amazing that a proponent of an alledged secure email server programme also pomotes secure telesoped vaccinations.

    I mean if you do not know something about a matter you are really well positioned to tell the boldest lies about it. People in the know will only ravel in half baked lies. Do not trust these guys to make the real big buck!

  44. Harry McGibbs says:

    I recommend Verisk Maplecroft’s “Political Instability Report for 2021”. It is a helpful overview, even if it overlooks the issues Gail writes about. It’s due to be published on 11th March but can be downloaded for free from their website if you don’t mind giving a name, email address etc:


    “With growth stagnating and many government balance sheets in disarray, the knock-on impacts of rising levels of debt and less flexibility on social spending will have far-reaching consequences. Against this backdrop, we forecast that political instability will rise in 88 countries.”

  45. Kowalainen says:

    British crown having that good ‘ole raycissm still going strong in the house of hypocrisy. How lovely it must feel after they spilled the beans. Nah, they wont give a rats ass.

    How about those trusty old lumps of coal wrapped with oil soaked rags thrown straight into Buckingham palace, perhaps that would change their minds?

    The prince, who is sixth in line to the throne, said there is a culture of suffering in silence in the royal family. However, Meghan’s race — she is half Black — and the abuse she endured made the situation even more difficult for the couple than it had been for other royals.

    • Robert Firth says:

      CNN and Oprah? You can bet that this story is 100% lies.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Oh, come on. Surely the British crown is rayciss. If they would play that card in public, fair enough. Everybody is entitled their opinion.

        Right, that would be a PR disaster. Wait a sec, it IS a PR disaster already with Randy Andy’s shenanigans and now this.


        • Very Far Frank says:

          As the world falls down around us, the pertinent question might be- who has the time or inclination to actually care about the goings-on of the royals?

          • Ed says:

            exactly, who cares? Not I.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Let’s make sure that the monarchy falls. We wont want it hanging around after collapse.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Why not, if nothing else, just for the shits and giggles. All that pomp and regalia.

              Aaand, ITS GONE!


            • Duncan Idaho says:

              It actually fell during the French Revolution.
              It is just a game by delusional UK players.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Plus the bank accounts they can use for money laundry. Or whatever.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Shocking stuff. It is no massive surprise as the many racist comments of Price Phillip, husband to the ‘queen’, are well known. It is not to be expected that the child would be safe in that environment and Harry was right to take his family out of that situation. His wife was suicidal.

      The posh can get away with anything in UK, standards are only for the ‘plebs’ who get away with nothing. The really sad thing is the ‘plebs’ who think that is how things ought to be and try to cover up for them. The sycophantic British press is disgusting.

      > Meghan makes sensational claim that Royals banned Archie from being a Prince because of concerns over how ‘DARK’ he would be and told her he would get no police protection but Harry refuses to reveal who made racist remark

      Meghan Markle today used her bombshell Oprah Winfrey interview to accuse the Royal Family of having ‘concerns’ about ‘how dark’ Archie’s skin would be before he was born because she is mixed-race and Harry is white.

      The Duchess of Sussex also described her ‘pain’ that officials had denied Archie the title of prince and accused Buckingham Palace of failing to protect him by denying him 24/7 security.

      Meghan refused to say which royal had the conversation with Harry about Archie’s skin colour, claiming it would be ‘damaging’ to the person in her husband’s family who raised it.

      She told Miss Winfrey that it was ‘a pretty safe’ assumption to suggest that the royal family member was ‘concerned’ that Archie being ‘too brown’ was ‘a problem’.

      When asked if it was ‘important’ for Meghan that Archie be called a prince, she said she doesn’t have any attachment to the ‘grandeur’ of official titles.

      But she said it was about ‘the idea of our son not being safe, and also the idea of the first member of colour in this family not being titled in the same way that other grandchildren would be.’


      • Kowalainen says:

        Coincidentally that child looks white as snow.


        • Lidia17 says:

          It didn’t come from her body… who knows where it came from.
          Mehgan is mentally ill, with a personality disorder. We saw this with Sarah Palin and her faked pregnancy…


          Bump sloshes around here (36 sec.):

          • Kowalainen says:

            Does the skin color matter to you? As for me, talk is cheap – show me the code.

            Color of the skin is amateur “hobby” eugenics. Pros look at the input/output ratio, as in: Does this particular specimen deliver usefulness out of the resources input or not?

            It is what Mother Earth does. What works, stays. That which doesn’t, gets extinct. Which is another word for irrelevant.

            Leave the FSCK people alone and let the wheel of time with the evolutionary process do the bidding. Perhaps the most crafty “humanoid ant colony” is the one that is barely sentient, that crafts away on contraptions of spit, duct tape, TIG welding, cable ties, electric wire and cheap ass microcontrollers.

            Yes indeed, perhaps overly smart asses is a liability for evolutionary processes from biological to synthetic? Like the absurd waste of intellect in contemporary science with the wankery of black holes, dark matter, big bangs, and endless stream of useless folly.

            Yes indeed, just have a look at the covid “science”. What a load of contradictions. Pure hogwash.


            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Maybe but you may be assuming that survival is the ‘purpose’ because it is what evolution ultimately selects for. Humans as sentient are able to propose other ‘purposes’ like art, music, philosophy, dignity – perhaps natural selection can even be ‘redeemed’ by humans, given a ‘purpose’ that ‘elevates’ it. Indeed, ‘purpose’ is a human concept. Clearly it would have to be compatible with survival.

              Nietzsche argued early on that art ‘redeems’ the world and I do not think that he ever really let go of that idea – the ‘purpose’ of society is not merely the concentration and expression of power but rather also the ‘elevation’ of the species in its freest, arty types that aristocracy allows for – although the great artists were more in their employ than of their number.

              ‘Barely sentient’ – N. also argued that consciousness is not an efficient way to interact with the world, blind instinct is much more efficient. But humans are what they are and they have survived thus far.

            • Kowalainen says:


              I did not mention purpose, rather process. I do not consider a purpose in life as something worth pondering (much) upon.

              Either you are aligned with the process or not. If the “purpose” is a direct measure of that alignment, then all right, I could accept this as ‘purpose’.

              Accepting that, however, makes you into an automaton for evolution. A disciple obeying the commands of Mother Earth. Fair enough, that, too, I can accept.

              Given the trajectory towards extinction that mankind has embarked upon, I simply nod in agreement to that which is inevitable and simply call my own impending irrelevance, by accepting the folly of procreating.

              Art, such as music, surely is useful and important for evolutionary process for sentients. It is a source of inspiration and relaxation. Some relief for some of the mundane ordeals that Mother Earth bestow upon her children.

              However, I do not consider art as something that should invoke emotion. Art is art, much in the same way mathematics is mathematics. When I listen to a song that I like, I don’t particularly feel anything except that it pleases me. It is a portal to the mind of the artist.

              Perhaps “awe” is the best way of describing it. People feeling great emotion from a piece of art likely need to tune down the shouting from the limbic system. Chill the fuck out; it’s just a song or painting. Stop hallucinating emotion that just isn’t there.

              There is indeed quantity in quality, but not the other way around.

              Perhaps I am a tad too mechanistic in the way I reason about the world. I doubt I could pass the Turing test.


      • Robert Firth says:

        Again, that is a damned lie. The child is not a prince because the protocols established over a century ago by King George V explicitly state who is eligible for the title, and he isn’t. I guess when a venomous, narcissistic non white person has run out of valid arguments, they reach for the “race” card. And I guess a lot of people pretend to be fooled, lest they be “cancelled” by the woke lynch mob.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          > The Sussexes indicated in the interview that they had expected Archie would be given the title of prince after Charles acceded the throne, but that they had been told that protocols would be changed – in line with Charles’s wish for a slimmed down monarchy – so that Archie would be excluded from becoming an HRH and prince.

          She spoke of her shock at being told he would not get police protection because he did not have a title, and suggested that the decision was taken because of his mixed race.

          She was clearly upset at the “idea of the first member of colour in this family not being titled in the same way that other grandchildren would be”.

          “It’s not their right to take away,” she told Oprah Winfrey.

          She was asked by Winfrey: “Do you think it’s because of his race?”

          Meghan replied: “In those months when I was pregnant, all around this same time, so we [had] the conversation of he won’t be given security, he’s not going to be given a title.

          “And, also, concerns and conversations about how dark his skin might be when he’s born.”


          • Tim Groves says:

            Yes, the topic of Meghan and Harry must be of vital import to all students of finite world studies. It’s right up there with the World Tiddlywinks Championship and going down to the shops to buy kitchen paper.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Oh darling, never mind.

              Humans are biological machines responding to stimuli – one might as well argue and have a scene with a robot – absurd and good only for SNG.

              : )

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh but poor Archie .. this must be so hard on the little fella… boo hoo for Archie … and Meghan!

              Hold on …. there is relevance to the Big Picture… these freaks who take to Oprah to air their trivial bullshit demonstrate how ridiculous the world is… how ridiculous humans are…

              They are being lead to the slaughterhouse by wolves .. they are trotting happily down the path … and all they are interested in is poor Archie…

              Of course Archie will soon be gone because he’ll die of Nightmare Covid along with mamma and pappa…

              Goodbye humans…. you will not be missed… not one bit…

              Your freakshow … your murder and mayhem… your vileness… poof! Gone…


            • Mirror on the wall says:

              The new survey finds that nearly 40% of Brits now think that the monarchy should be abolished.

              Support for abolition has risen in just a year from 29% in January 2020 to 37.5% today.

              That is unusually high for Britain.

              Nice one Haz and Mex.

            • Kowalainen says:


              “Humans are biological machines responding to stimuli”

              Right, one type of machine that deludes that it is ‘better’ than another type of machine.

              Baseless humanoid chauvinism.

              Oh noes, the machine cannot “feel”. Hence I am “better”. Let me explain the best form of existence: To feel noting at all, to perceive without feedback to the overpowering limbic system.

              Every time I “feel” something it is a distraction, the obnoxiousness of the limbic system craving attention. Feed me, take a dump, anger, joy, horny, corny.

              The beauty isn’t in the emotions, but rather in the patterns and harmonies invoked by the neocortex.

              I don’t feel anything listening to good music or watch beautiful scenery. It is the tune and the imagery. What else need there be?

              Yeah, survival and pain. Mistakes and adversity must have a price, with its polar opposite not being bliss, but rather nothingness.


            • Lidia17 says:

              Tim, on the one hand this is trashy tabloid stuff. One the other, it is the taking-down of an entire thousand-year-old culture and people by a couple of greedy faux-woke brats.

              Now, admittedly the empire is overly long in the tooth, if not entirely rotten through.. BUT MeAgain is attempting to destroy (and is apparently succeeding to some extent in destroying) the Queen, the English/British, their kingdom and its political structure, their Archbishop and Church, etc. Harry has turned his back on his family, his country, his military career and any valor that might remain there…

              It’s really an amazing conflagration she’s lit, far worse than that of Nôtre Dame, to which Michelle O. was witnessed raising a glass.

              One really needs to investigate personality disorders to understand the un-natural degree of chaos these people can wreak in a matter of minutes, much less days or years.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The Elders seem to be very keen on providing the monkeys with distractions including hinting that space aliens have been visiting us…

              May I propose that the UN carry out a show trial involving the entire UK royal family charging them with crimes against humanity and various other war crimes…. doesn’t matter that they did not actually commit the crimes .. this is a show trial… it’s all about pandering to the woksters and anti-elitists…

              No doubt other elitists would be more than happy to throw the royals under the bus if it meant keeping the heat off of them…

              So Liz… but you need to take one for the team….

              Once convicted I recommend caging them and putting them onto a flatbed truck then slowing rolling the through the UK on a final grand tour…. the masses would be encouraged to spit on them … and young children should be provided with pointy sticks (with flags on one end) and told to poke and stab away…

              Then into sold out Wembley Stadium — for the hanging… (pay per view).

              How delightful would that be!!!

              And for an encore.. I’d recommend the Spanish royals….

        • NomadicBeer says:

          @Robert, given the circus about race in US, I cannot trust any accusation of racism that I see in the media.
          It’s not that racism doesn’t exist – on the contrary I have seen plenty – it’s just that most accusations are against the people that are not racist (see Dr. Seuss).

          Racism is a fact of life here – the oligarchs use the black and hispanic communities as pawns in their games.
          A guy on the street using the N word is destroyed. The rich using the police to kill poor people (most blacks and hispanics are poor) and then using the blacks to kill more blacks (see the BLM protests) – that is just good, caring equality.

          • Robert Firth says:

            NomadicBeer, I also lived in the US, and saw plenty of both casual and systemic racism. My children saw it in school. White children who misbehaved were punished; black children who misbehaved were ignored. White children were not allowed to run in the halls, shout, bang lockers, empty wastebaskets onto the floor; black children could do all those things. White children who failed were held back, while black children were promoted.

            And on to college, where admissions systems accepted unqualified black applicants, while rejecting qualified white (and Asian) applicants. Later, black children graduated with fake degrees, but were somehow accepted by major companies, while white (and Asian) graduates with real degrees were somehow passed over.

            The criminal justice system was just as bad. Shoplifting, property damage, and violence by blacks was ignored or punished with a slap on the wrist; white offenders faced a judge and jury. Domestic violence perpetrated by blacks was not even written up; both perpetrators and victims were ignored.

            Need I go on? Of course, it was called “affirmative action”, but in my eyes it was systemic racism. And it is steadily getting worse, as the new privileged class exploits their society’s racism to the full.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Well, obviously we can’t have equality of opportunity. That would ruin the consumerism hoopla.

              That is the only explanation needed. The rest follows.

            • NomadicBeer says:

              The black community is a captive voting block of the democratic party. There are similar ones for the republicans.
              The end result is “divide et impera” – the poor end up hating each other for the perks that some groups are getting. In the long term those “perks” result in worse results – as we all know if we have seen a spoil kid.

              I was starting to hope a couple of years ago – there were some new republican politicians that were using the “big tent” policy to attract disaffected minorities.
              Then of course the deep state reacted and destroyed all of that.

              That pretty much guarantees that the next change in US will be violent.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Of course the ‘herd’ is needed for the herders. Imagine constructing a herd of herds at odds with each other.

              Now, imagine a carpenter building a shoddy ass house just for the sake of despising it and feeling ‘better’ about himself. After all, it is a piece of shit house, rotten to the core with a leaky ceiling, drafty, moldy, flimsy walls. And no matter how much debt is sunk into it, just keeps on getting worse.

              The story probably tells more about the carpenter than that of the house.

              Yup, they both fucking suck. The carpenter, however, a tad more. 🤢🤮

              Would you trust that “carpenter” to build the next house? I guess not?


        • Christopher says:

          Concering the woke lynch mob, Spiked had an article on that theme:

          “But there’s something else going on, too, something that goes far beyond Harry falling out with his dad or Meghan vs Kate. More fundamentally we’re witnessing a culture clash. A conflict between the contemporary cults of victimhood and identity politics, as now keenly represented by Harry and Meghan, and the older ideals of duty, self-sacrifice, stoicism and keeping your shit together, as embodied by the queen, and as aspired to by most Brits in recent decades. This internecine clash between the Sussexes and the Palace is really an unspoken civil war between post-Diana New Britain and Old Britain. Last night’s interview, facilitated by that doyen of the new elites, Oprah, was essentially a power grab by Harry and Meghan – their attempt to seize the throne of the victim industry and consolidate their cultural power in the post-traditional world.”


          • Kowalainen says:

            Now the question remains, did the royal house make those bigoted remarks or not? I would say yes, they did. Of course they are rayciss.

            I simply see payback, and now schadenfreude. Randy Andy plus bigotry. You need not know more.

            Let it burn. 🔥


            • Lidia17 says:

              I would say, no, they probably did not. Otherwise why would they have taken on the Markle “project”, as it were, in the first place?

              If you understand that Meghan is personality-disordered, it’s easy to see her comments as a projection of her own anxieties and (understandable) lack of real self-esteem.

              She didn’t actually say anyone said things about Archie’s color… she said “potentially”… in other words, it’s in her imagination.

            • Kowalainen says:

              All the queen needs to do then is to deny those allegations. Then pray to god that there isn’t more “material” than that.

              My guess is that it will be an official apology instead. Or perhaps Meghan dies in a car “accident”.

              Oh, noes. Caught between a rock and a hard place. *Hack Meghan and delete all evidence*



    • Thierry says:

      I’m shocked! Those people have never seen Bridgerton on Netflix?

    • These youngsters simply fight for securing the proper allowance-support from the family they separated from, which has been apparently denied in suggested level so far. So, they stepped up efforts via msm pedal to the metal in terms of said extortion racket plan (threatening more “leaks”)..

      Obviously, the tools – subject matter very silly (most likely a hair brain scheme of that girl wearing pants for that comic duo).. Supposedly Charles not even answering their calls anymore, hah, very well played..

  46. Pollux says:

    Demonstrators block major roads in Lebanon as currency sees unprecedented depreciation

    In recent days, the lira recorded an unprecedented record low since Lebanon entered the cycle of economic collapse a year and a half ago, as the exchange rate against the dollar approached the threshold of 11,000 on the black market.

    This caused an additional rise in prices, prompting people to flock to the shops to buy and store food.

    “We closed all roads in the region today to tell everyone: It’s over, we have nothing to lose anymore…

  47. MG says:

    Why Antarctica is not an independent country?

    Because its energy balance is negative.

    • MG says:

      Int the same way Sahara is divided among several countries that have water.

    • It is too cold for any useful purpose, except perhaps mineral extraction. Even for that purpose, it cost would be absurdly high compared to other parts of the world.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Charles Hapgood “Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings” speculated that an ice free Antarctica was the site of Atlantis. Fascinating, but wildly improbable.

      However, the real “Great Southern Continent” has long excited the fascination of writers: Edgar Allan Poe, “The Narrative of Arthur Gordon Pym”; Jules Verne, “The Sphynx of the Icefields”; H P Lovecraft, “At the Mountains of Madness”, Joh Taine, “The Greatest Adventure”.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        In this film that was posted… they shoot a polar bear … in the antarctic… check it out … perhaps they are confused and are actually in the arctic?

        Not sure why they shoot the poor bear — for fun?

        Good riddance humans … your days are numbered you vile bastards.


Comments are closed.