Headed for a Collapsing Debt Bubble

A $1.9 trillion stimulus package was recently signed into law in the United States. Can such a stimulus bill, plus packages passed in other countries, really pull the world economy out of the downturn it has been in since 2020? I don’t think so.

The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don’t appear to be fixable in the near term, such as six months or a year. Instead, the economy seems to be headed for a collapse of its debt bubble. Eventually, we may see a reset of the world financial system leading to fewer interchangeable currencies, far less international trade and falling production of goods and services. Some governments may collapse.

[1] What Is Debt?

I understand debt to be an indirect promise for future goods and services. These future goods and services can only be created if there are adequate supplies of the right kinds of energy and other materials, in the right places, to make these future goods and services.

I think of debt as being a time-shifting device. Indirectly, it is a promise that the economy will be able to provide as many, or more, goods and services in the future compared to what it does at the time the loan is taken out.

Common sense suggests that it is much easier to repay debt with interest in a growing economy than in a shrinking economy. Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff unexpectedly ran across this phenomenon in their 2008 working paper, This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. They reported (p. 15), “It is notable that the non-defaulters, by and large, are all hugely successful growth stories.” In other words, their analysis of 800 years of governmental debt showed that default was almost inevitable if a country stopped growing or started shrinking.

The IMF estimates that the world economy shrank by 3.5% in 2020. There are many areas with even worse indications: Euro Area, -7.2%; United Kingdom, -10.0%; India, -8.0%; Mexico, -8.5%; and South Africa, -7.5%. If these situations cannot be turned around quickly, we should expect to see collapsing debt bubbles. Even the US, which shrank by 3.4%, needs a rapid return to growth if it is to keep its debt bubble inflated.

[2] The Inter-Relationship Among (a) Growing Debt, (b) Growing Energy Consumption and a (c) Growing Economy

When we are far from energy limits, growing debt seems to pull the economy along. This is a graphic I put together in 2018, explaining the situation. A small amount of debt is helpful to the system. But, if there gets to be too much debt, both oil prices and interest rates rise, bringing the braking system into action. The bicycle/economy rapidly slows.

Figure 1. The author’s view of the analogy of a speeding upright bicycle and a speeding economy.

Just as a two-wheeled bicycle needs to be going fast enough to stay upright, the economy needs to be growing rapidly enough for debt to do what it is intended to do. It takes energy supply to create the goods and services that the economy depends on.

If oil and other energy products are cheap to produce, their benefit will be widely available. Employers will be able to add more efficient machines, such as bigger tractors. These more efficient machines will act to leverage the human labor of the workers. The economy can grow rapidly, without the use of much debt. Figure 2 shows that the world oil price was $20 per barrel in 2020$, or even less, prior to 1974.

Figure 2. Oil price in 2020 dollars, based on amounts through 2019 in 2019$ from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy, the inflationary adjustment from 2019 to 2020 based on CPI Urban prices from the US Department of Labor and the average spot Brent oil price for 2020 based on EIA information.

Figure 3 below shows the historical relationship between the growth in US energy consumption (red line) and the dollar increase in US debt growth required to add a dollar increase in GDP (blue line). This chart calculates ratios for five-year periods because ratios for individual years are unstable.

Figure 3. Comparison of five-year average growth in US energy consumption based on EIA data with five-year average amount of added debt required to add $1 of GDP.

Based on Figure 3, the US average annual growth in energy consumption (red line) generally fell between 1951 and 2020. The quantity of debt that needed to be added to create an additional $1 dollar of GDP (blue line) has generally been rising.

According to Investopedia, Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. Notice that there is no mention of debt in this definition. If businesses or governments can find a way to make large amounts of credit available to borrowers who are not very credit worthy, it becomes easy to sell cars, motorcycles or homes to buyers who may never repay that debt. If the economy hits turbulence, these marginal buyers are likely to default, causing a collapse in a debt bubble.

[3] Analyzing Energy Consumption Growth, Debt Growth and Economic Growth for Broader Groupings of Years

To get a better idea what is happening with respect to energy growth, debt growth, and GDP growth, I created some broader groupings of years, based primarily on patterns in Figure 2, showing inflation-adjusted oil prices. The following groupings of years were chosen:

  • 1950-1973
  • 1974-1980
  • 1981-2000
  • 2001-2014
  • 2015-2020

Using these groupings of years, I put together charts in which it is easier to see trends.

Figure 4. Average annual increase in energy consumption for period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 4 shows that for the US, there has been a general downward trend in the annual growth of energy consumption. At same time, real (that is, inflation-adjusted) GDP has been trending downward, but not quite as quickly.

We would expect that lower energy consumption would lead to lower growth in real GDP because it takes energy of the appropriate kinds to make goods and services. For example, it takes oil to ship most goods. It takes electricity to operate computers and keep the lights on. According to the World Coal Association, large quantities of coal are used in producing cement and steel. These are important for construction, such as is planned in stimulus projects around the world.

Also, on Figure 4, the period 1981 to 2000 shows an uptick in both energy consumption growth and real GDP growth. This period corresponds to a period of relatively low oil prices (Figure 2). With lower oil prices, businesses found it affordable to add new devices to leverage human labor, making workers more productive. The growing productivity of workers is at least part of what led to the increased growth in real GDP.

Figure 5. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 5, above, is disturbing. It strongly suggests that the US economy (and probably a lot of other economies) has needed to add an increasing amount of debt to add $1 of GDP in recent years. This pattern started long before President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package in 2021.

To make matters worse, GDP growth in Figure 5 has not been reduced to remove the impact of inflation. On average, removing the impact of inflation reduces the above GDP growth by about half. In the period 2015 to 2020, it took about $4.35 of additional debt to add one dollar of GDP growth, including inflation. It would take about double that amount, or $8.70 worth of debt, to create $1.00 worth of inflation-adjusted growth. With such a low return on added debt, it seems unlikely that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will increase the growth of the economy very much.

[4] Falling interest rates (Figure 6) are a major part of what allowed the rapid growth in debt after 1981 shown in Figure 5.

Figure 6. 10-Year and 3-Month US Treasury Rates through February 2021, in a chart prepared by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.

Clearly, debt is more affordable if the interest rate is lower. For example, auto loans and home mortgages have lower monthly payments if the interest rate is lower. It is also clear that governments need to spend less of their tax revenue on interest rate payments if interest rates are lower. Changes made by US President Ronald Reagan when he took office 1981 also encouraged the use of more debt.

A major concern with respect to today’s debt bubble is the fact that interest rates are about as low as they can go without going negative. In fact, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds is now 1.72%, which is higher than the February 2021 average rate shown on the chart. As interest rates rise, it becomes more costly to add more debt. As interest rates rise, businesses will be less likely to take on debt in order to expand and hire more workers.

[5] Interest expense is a major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners everywhere. Energy costs are another major expense of governments, businesses, and homeowners. It makes sense that falling interest rates can partly hide rising energy prices.

A trend toward lower interest rates was needed starting in 1981 because the US could no longer produce large amounts of crude oil that were profitable to sell at less than $20 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices. Lower interest rates made adding debt more feasible. This added debt could smooth the transition to an economy that was less dependent on oil, now that it was high-priced. The lower interest rates helped all segments of the economy adjust to the new higher cost of oil and other fuels.

[6] The US experience shows precisely how helpful having a rapidly growing supply of inexpensive to produce oil could be to an economy.

US oil production, excluding Alaska (blue “remainder” in Figure 7), rose rapidly after 1945 but began to decline not long after hitting a peak in 1970. This growing oil production had temporarily provided a huge boost to the US economy.

Figure 7. US crude oil production, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Up until almost 1970, US oil production was rising rapidly. Figure 8 shows that during this period, incomes of both the bottom 90% of workers and the top 10% of workers increased rapidly. Over a period of about 20 years, incomes for both groups grew by about 80%, after adjusting for inflation. On average, workers were about 4% better off each year, with the rapid growth in very inexpensive-to-produce oil, all of which stayed in the US (rather than being exported). US imports of inexpensive-to-produce oil also grew during this period.

Once oil prices were higher, income growth for both the lower 90% and the top 10% slowed. With the changes made starting in 1981, wage disparities quickly started to grow. There suddenly became a need for new, high-tech approaches that used less oil. But these changes were more helpful to the managers and highly educated workers than the bottom 90% of workers.

Figure 8. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.

[7] Most of the world’s cheap-to-extract oil sources have now been exhausted. Our problem is that the world market cannot get prices to rise high enough for producers to cover all of their expenses, including taxes.

Based on my analysis, the world price of oil would need to be at least $120 per barrel to cover all of the costs it needs to cover. The costs that need to be covered include more items than an oil company would normally include in its costs estimates. The company needs to develop new fields to compensate for the ones that are being exhausted. It needs to pay interest on its debt. It also needs to pay dividends to its shareholders. In the case of shale producers, the price needs to be high enough that production outside of “sweet spots” can be carried on profitably.

For oil exporters, it is especially important that the sales price be high enough so that the government of the oil exporting country can collect adequate tax revenue. Otherwise, the exporting country will not be able to maintain food subsidy programs that the population depends on and public works programs that provide jobs.

[8] The world can add more debt, but it is difficult to see how the debt bubble that is created will really pull the world economy forward rapidly enough to keep the debt bubble from collapsing in the next year or two.

Many models are based on the assumption that the economy can easily go back to the growth rate it had, prior to COVID-19. There are several reasons why this seems unlikely:

  • Many parts of the world economy weren’t really growing very rapidly prior to the pandemic. For example, shopping malls were doing poorly. Many airlines were in financial difficulty. Private passenger auto sales in China reached a peak in 2017 and have declined every year since.
  • At the low oil prices prior to the pandemic, many oil producers (including the US) would need to reduce their production. The 2019 peak in shale production (shown in Figure 7) may prove to be the peak in US oil production because of low prices.
  • Once people became accustomed to working from home, many of them really do not want to go back to a long commute.
  • It is not clear that the pandemic is really going away, now that we have kept it around this long. New mutations keep appearing. Vaccines aren’t 100% effective.
  • As I showed in Figure 5, adding more debt seems to be a very inefficient way of digging the economy out of a hole. What is really needed is a growing supply of oil that can be produced and sold profitably for less than $20 per barrel. Other types of energy need to be similarly inexpensive.

I should note that intermittent wind and solar energy is not an adequate substitute for oil. It is not even an adequate substitute for “dispatchable” electricity production. It is simply an energy product that has been sufficiently subsidized that it can often make money for its producers. It also sounds good, if it is referred to as “clean energy.” Unfortunately, its true value is lower than its cost of production.

[9] What’s Ahead?

I expect that oil prices will rise a bit, but not enough to raise prices to the level producers require. Interest rates will continue to rise as governments around the world attempt more stimulus. With these higher interest rates and higher oil prices, businesses will do less and less well. This will slow the economy enough that debt defaults become a major problem. Within a few months to a year, the worldwide debt bubble will start to collapse, bringing oil prices down by more than 50%. Stock market prices and prices of buildings of all kinds will fall in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many bonds will prove to be worthless. There will be problems with empty shelves in stores and gasoline stations with no products to sell.

People will start to see that while debt is a promise for the equivalent of future goods and services, it is not necessarily the case that those who make the promises will be able to stand behind these promises. Paper wealth generally can be expected to lose its value.

I can imagine a situation, not too many years from now, when countries everywhere will establish new currencies that are not as easily interchangeable with other currencies as today’s currencies are. International trade will dramatically fall. The standard of living of most people will fall precipitously.

I doubt that the new currencies will be electronic currencies. Keeping the electricity on is a difficult task in economies that increasingly need to rely solely on local resources. Electricity may be out for months at a time after an equipment failure or a storm. Having a currency that depends on electricity alone would be a poor idea.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,106 Responses to Headed for a Collapsing Debt Bubble

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    Extinction rebellion… hahaha…. wanna bet the CEP PR Team came up with that tag line… understanding that nobody would connect covid with extinction …

    When you are engaged in the very grim business of lying and exterminating a species … you need to have a little fun once in awhile…. they also commissioned the Matrix movies .. of course


    • Lots of different groups getting together and protesting in London.

    • Xabier says:

      Very true: the German organisers of the death camps also liked to play ‘jokes’ on the inmates,and made a kind of theatre of their killing.

      There is an intimate relationship between murder and sadistic humour.

      Encouraging false hope (‘Roadmap to Freedom’ in the UK, ‘Freedom Passports’, the ‘Vaccine of Hope and Life’ etc) is one of the exquisite refinements of cruelty for these degraded people.

      People who do not see what is going on today are simply deficient in historical knowledge, I’m afraid. Which is I suppose merciful for them, in a way.

  2. Gerard d'Olivat says:

    Mozambique, gaz and social unrest

    1.The extremely violent jihadism in northeastern Mozambique is related to the activities of Western companies in the region. Gas extraction plays a major role in the region.

    2.The worlds of the jihadists and these gas companies clearly collided in recent days, after fighters from a Mozambican Islamist group took the port city of Palma. Dozens of people were killed, including South African and British expats working for the French gas company Total. Thousands of Mozambicans and expats fled.

    3.In Palma is the headquarters of Total’s gas production.
    The violence in northeastern Mozambique began in 2017, seven years after one of the world’s largest gas bubbles was found off the coast. Investment in the gas industry skyrocketed, but the local population was left behind.

    4.The jihadist insurgency began out of local people’s dissatisfaction with the neglect of Cabo Delgado, a province inhabited mostly by Muslims. Mozambique is predominantly Christian. But the violence has increasingly turned against the civilian population in recent months. More than 2,500 Mozambicans were killed in mass beheadings and in fighting between jihadists and the government army.

    5. Many Mozambicans suspect a link between the jihadists and organized crime syndicates that for years have used Cabo Delgado as a transit port for drugs from Afghanistan, which are landed in northern Mozambique. This explains, among other things, why the jihadists are fleeing the villages’ residents en masse and blocking government troops.

    6. The Mozambican military often proves impotent against the guerrilla tactics of the jihadists, who swore allegiance to Islamic State in 2018. Soldiers often flee attacks. This also happened in Palma. Meanwhile, the army has regained control of the city. But there are fears for the lives of the 20,000 refugees holed up near the compound of Total, which withdrew its security guards from the area this week.

    7. The mercenaries also played an important role in the attack in Palma, where they managed to keep the jihadists at bay for a long time and evacuate some expats. The Dyck Advisory Group says it will leave Mozambique on April 6. The U.S. military and the military of former colonizer Portugal have also sent “advisors” to Mozambique to assist the military in the fight against the jihadists.

    Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

    • Interesting! Natural gas is a difficult resource to use. In fact, that is why a lot of natural gas has simply been flared (burned off), rather then collected.

      In recent years, there has been hope that natural gas prices would stay high enough so that businesses could make a profit extracting the natural gas and shipping it to a location, such as Europe or China or Japan that needs it. The problem is basically two-fold:
      1. Shipping costs are terribly high
      2. It is hard to keep prices high enough, because high priced natural gas makes terribly high-priced electricity and heat.

      Of course, there would also be the possibility of using the natural gas in Mozambique to develop the country. The catch is that natural gas, by itself, isn’t all that helpful. Unless it has businesses that can use the natural gas, businesses in Mozambique cannot lay out pipelines to distribute tiny amounts to homes around the region. The overhead of the system would be too expensive, relative to the amount sold.

      Businesses don’t need natural gas, unless they also have a whole system in place to use it. Businesses manufacturing something need a range of inputs. If they are not available locally, they need to be imported. The whole system can’t be put together with just natural gas. Oil would be much better, if it was cheap enough. Or coal plus iron ore. Having natural gas only is similar to having electricity only. It doesn’t do enough. And both natural gas and electricity require very specialized systems for transport. Natural gas can “sort of” be stored in underground caverns, or as compressed natural gas, or as LNG, but not easily or cheaply. Electricity can “sort of” be stored in batteries. But it is hard to get either one very high priced, relative to the cost of extraction.

      It is hard for the price of natural gas rise sufficiently to be profitable enough to be of much benefit to Mozambique. There are a lot of other countries trying to develop their natural gas resources. If other countries can ship natural gas by pipelines (such as Russia) this tends to be a much cheaper way to move the natural gas to its desired location.

  3. UK Covid-19 vaccine passport app could require people to give their location to a central database – meaning people could be tracked

    • All of these passport apps are have a cost associated with them. I expect that this will be the downfall. No one will really want to pay the cost, especially if the vaccine isn]t good for very long, and it is not possible to tell how low it works for.

  4. Yoshua says:

    The coming war between Russia and Ukraine

    Ukraine declared March 11th that they would retake Crimea and started to move armour towards the border. Russia responded by moving troops and weapons to the border.

    Ukraine is hoping to join NATO for political and economic reasons. The country is basically broke.

    The war declaration

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      USA state is looking for a ‘purpose’ in its geopolitical life, some moral and political ‘legitimacy’ on the world stage, and it is driven by the Pentagon and its need to keep the military-industrial complex and its jobs well funded.

      It also distracts from the decline of American economic society, its ‘rust belts’ and its urban and ethnic strifes, the collapse of productivity growth, social mobility, demographic growth and GDP growth.

      And it reinforces hostilities with China. It is a pretty lame attempt to rehash the ‘glory years’ of geopolitical leadership and hegemony during the Cold War period and to delay, or least to obfuscate, USA relative decline.

      Ukraine are patsies, much like the Kurds, in a USA psycho-political drama. Ukraine’s best bet is to try to develop their own society, in so far as that is still possible, and to make friends with their stronger neighbours.

      They have nothing to gain through hostilities and it is liable to come back to bite them later on – all so that a decrepit USA can now act out some pointless psycho-political drama. The ‘patsies’ never really seem to learn, even from each other.

      • Kowalainen says:

        It surely can’t be tractable switching from a hyper competitive consumerist society of aplenty into a one defined by scarcity, a post industrial smoldering waste heap with crumbling infrastructure, social stressors and enormous piles of useless eater wokesters financed by the dollar hegemony and a myriad of trust funds wholly dependent on the dollar staying relevant?

        Peak oil
        Peak people
        Peak money
        Peak consumerism
        Peak delusion
        Peak hopium
        Peak muppet


        Peak USA

        It’s perfect.
        Game well played.
        Endgame reached
        Try again [Y/N]



      • jj says:

        Its omost pathetic its so predictable. Poor Ukraine. Personally I thought “yahts” was looking out for the country trading both with Russia and the West. As the leaked nuland phone call revealed that was not OK “yahts has to go” . Never mind he just happened to be elected in a democratic nation and this was europe not central america. And poof enter the maidan some hooligans a cou and voila yahts gone. The press discussing the audacity of the russians intercepting Nulands comunication and making it public not that the USA is in the overthrowing democratically elected regimes. The press celebrating the maidan like it was some sort of mainstream movement.

        Kind of reminds me of somthing not sure what…

        Russia was never going to give up their only cold weather port. Certainly not because of a bunch of made up malarky and a cou. This was never about anything but trying to bluff russia out of crimea, nato membership nukes pointing at moscow like poland and romania in return for EU membership and a credit line for the ukraine politicians.

        So Russia said “whatever” about the kiev part of ukraine. The only reason the ukraine is independent is because of gorbachev now considered a traitor in russia. So whatever. Have your cou. Say its a glorious overthrow of a bad man.

        Kind of reminds me of somthing… not sure what.

        Russia even abandoned the quite russian side of the ukraine much to the dismay of the inhabitants who had voted in a referendum overseen by impartial western observers to stay with russia by 95%. Might have somthing to do with that the primary language is russian.

        Kievs first act was to ban the russian language after the cou. A country getting along just fine but all of a sudden at each others throat after a cou.

        Kind of reminds me of somthing. Not sure what.

        S400 has been in crimea since 2016. Russia will not back down on this one. France and germany are trying to deescalate but if the shooting starts russia will defend crimea as sovereign dirt. which it was until gorby gave it away.

        So what exactly will happen when USA aircraft go down? Or russian for that matter? Russia is not going to just give up crimea airspace. their not stupid. This wont be a half hearyted attempt at keeping that port and a oh well. This is not a tripoli or a baghdad. This is the real deal if it happens. The main event. My bet is france and germany stay out. You think they appreciate the cou or nulands “f### the eu” in their back yard?

        USA such a good friend. True blue.

        Whats truly amazing is that such a blatant and unrepentant neowarcon as victoria was brought back in on bidens watch. Total disrepect for democracy and USA european allys. And the people are oblivious. All the press about some asshole cops trial and we are getting ready to start WW3 over “russia aggression” . Victoria who? Did you get your VAX yet?

        Russia aint giving up their only cold weather port. They consider it russian dirt. If it escelates oh well. Its just now or later if the USA is that bent on war.

        The presses view doesnt really matter one the hypersonics are flying and the energy weapons trying to burn them.

        Theres not a chance in hell that declaration of intent to “retrieve” crimea by ukraine.guv was decided upon autonomously by the ukraine government.

        Victoria gots unfinished business.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Well, in all fairness, the team blue muppets doesn’t got much of a choice, now do they? But don’t get me wrong, the EU/Russian muppets belong in the same asylum. Hitler/Stalin/Mussolini/etc. anyone? As father, as son.

          Irrelevance isn’t that appealing I’m inclined to believe. At least one last ‘Oorah! before the American experiment ends in chaos.

          Let’s experience the last twerk of American booty before we kiss this debacle farewell.

          Let the biggest ego win. Nothing.


          • jj says:

            I guess i disagree. War means suffering. We cant even imagine what sort of suffering if USA russia unleash their aresenals.

            And why? It seems to be because the USA doesnt want to compete fairly where goods and services are compensated based on value.

            Fundamentally we have never come to terms with how we earn the standard of living we enjoy. THere are a lot of simple pleasures in life. Living in a comunity where you are respected is worth more than any $$$ to me.

            There are a lot of good hard working moral people in the USA. We are willing to accept a lower standard of living if we dont have to be the worlds bully.

            It seems quite sanctimonious to me that this administration can talk about social justice while bring back in nuland who violated the Ukrainan peoples right to self determination. Frankly i think the russia is the evil boogyman is horse hocky. Im not saying its all that or putin is a angel eithor although he strikes me of more of a leader than we have had in the USA for a long time.

            To be fair Gorbachevs bargain represented a opportunity for the USA for a more peacful world. Would russia remilitarized if we had not played this game of bribing countries with EU dollars to join nato and getnukes on moscows doorstep.? We will never know.

            Fundamentally the shaft everyone who is a competitor is wrong, The “survivor” mentality. Its no way to live.

            Fundamentally we all want the same things. A healthy place to live. A future for the children. Everything else is BS. Imaginary creations of BS that exist only in our minds.

            We are far to complacent. Russia understands physics.
            I could be wrong. Perhaps f35s will take out russian anti aircraft capabilities without being detected and the game will be the same as ever. Control the air control the ground.

            Even if it goes down like that and i really doubt it will It just isnt right. It might be for the best because if we take losses it will escelate. Like the USA is going to march into leningrad…. right.

            Every nasty thing developed by both militarys will come out then. we wont have a healthy place to live. we wont have a future for our children.

            And for what?

            So apparantly the plan is to demonstrate military superiority via technological means in the ukraine.
            These assholes who like war should lead the charge into russia if it escalates.

            Maybe after about 100 years of minding our own business the USA would be trusted again. I d like that.
            We have lost our privledge to be a world peackeeper by our middle east chaos. WE need to mind our own business.

            Minding your own business. Live and let live. Not popular political memes right now it would seem.

            Pride comes before a fall.

    • MM says:

      After watching this video you may have a chance to consider more options than war and follow a less fearful life:

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        the simplistic version timeline:

        Ukraine was leaning towards trade agreement with Russia, then in 2014 the Obama administration perpetrated an illegal coup which ousted the lawfully elected pro-Russia president and replaced him with a pro-West president.

        Russia swiftly annexed Crimea, and rightfully so.

        (Orlov was at his best writing about this.)

        then not much happened from 2017 through 2020.

        I wonder why? (oh now I remember, Trump was POTUS.)

        now it’s 2021 and Joke Biden is Puppet Of The United States.

        the Obama people are back in power, and this could mean big trouble again for the people of Ukraine.

        I wonder if most Ukrainians realize that they are the victims of the illegal action of Obama?

  5. Can’t stand Alex Jones, but this is a MUST WATCH VIDEO:

    • This is indeed a bizarre, bizarre story. Planning a vaccine that will cause brain damage, so as to kill off a significant share of the population.

      If it is really true, this needs to be brought to light, but I am not the one to be in the middle of it.

      Even if they did plan it, how would they get the story right?

      • Just imagine how many articles like this will be popping up all over the globe in the next few months.:

        New Brunswick man searches for answers as father slowly deteriorates due to mysterious disease

        A New Brunswick son is sharing his story about his family’s health struggles in hopes of finding answers and signaling others who may have had similar experiences.

        When Roger Ellis was first admitted to hospital in 2019 and had a seizure, he was misdiagnosed with epilepsy and given treatment.

        The Bathurst, N.B., man has been going downhill health-wise ever since.

        That’s why for the past two years, his son Steve Ellis has been trying to find answers to what has been causing his 63-year-old father to deteriorate mentally and physically.

        “Everything about him has changed,” said his son, who now lives in Nova Scotia. “He has repetitive speech. He paces a lot. Before his illness, he had sleep issues, but it was just like anyone who can’t sleep every so often, but now it’s amplified.

        “Every so often we get a glimpse of dad or Roger. But it’s few and far between.”

        The Ellis family resigned themselves to the fact that they would never know what Roger’s illness is until he dies, but Steve said things might be different now after New Brunswick public health warned the public of a mysterious brain disease, which includes many of the symptoms Roger already has.

        In a Q&A with New Brunswick’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Jennifer Russell on the mysterious brain disease, Russell said the symptoms of the disease include “rapidly progressing dementia; unexplained, significant weight loss; myoclonic, so that’s a really tightening of the muscles; gait attacks, which means you’re unco-ordinated, you look unsteady on your feet; and muscle atrophy, wasting of the muscles.”

        Symptoms of the condition are similar to those of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, a rare degenerative brain disorder, but not much else is known — including its source.

        Steve said his father had every single symptom of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, but when he got tested the result came back negative.

  6. James Speaks says:

    Which is why it is foolish to offer the Ukraine unconditional air support in the upcoming war with Russia and Belarus.

  7. Terry McNeil says:


    “The virus that causes COVID-19 is evolving and it’s complicating our efforts to end the pandemic”. By Bill Gates.


    Here is the response I posted to Bill on his website GatesNotes today -simply saying that a much more comprehensive approach is needed that addresses and includes optimizing the immune system and addressing the VD deficiencies of the at-risk populations.  

    BTW – recommend folks join his blog – as I think he needs more apolitical creative views and dynamic perspectives. I think folks here would do a fantastic job stirring his pot. Who knows maybe he’ll join OFW.


    Why are we not putting more emphasis on boosting the immune system and ensuring that folks are not Vitamin D deficient (VD) both prior to and particularly after any vaccination – we must not get lulled into thinking it is an absolute silver bullet – nothing is?

    There are substantial clinical and medical studies (hundreds) that statistically prove that those with compromised immune systems or VD deficiency are much more likely to be victims of COVID or other respiratory diseases by a wide margin. We know exactly the demographic groups at risk.

    Mitigates in this regard may even be more effective than current mitigate protocols (masks, hand-washing), but regardless, it behooves us to communicate and recommend an inclusive full-court press using all possible mitigates -as innocent lives may be saved as no doctor or authority can predict what mitigate would work best for any particular person. So why take chances?

    Again, I would stress that there are no silver bullets given the virus mutations and moving science, but we need to expand our discourse and actions where scientific evidence is statistically significant and can limit the number of victims of this virus in its current and future forms. This is common sense – but, the problem with common sense; it is just not so common. 

    https://youtu.be/ha2mLz-Xdpg (60 mins -approx.) 

    https://youtu.be/vN30emwcNS4 (30 mins -approx)

    • The first of these videos is in Vitamin D and its role in preventing infections. I haven’t had a chance to listen to all of it yet, but I want to get back to it. It is very good.

      The second one is with the same doctor, talking about what you should do if you or someone in your household tests positive for COVID-19. I expect it is very good too, but I haven’t had a chance to look at it yet.

  8. hillcountry says:


    Streamed live a few days ago; Dr. Mobeen interviews Dr. Tess Lawrie, Director, The Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy Ltd, Bath, United Kingdom

    Useful comment section includes this gem:

    “Regarding the medical establishment’s stubborn preference for “gold standard” large RCTs, I was impressed by the following comment left under a different video by a doctor who seems to understand how clinical guidance is actually derived:”

    “Any physician walking around with the belief that infectious diseases is a specialty or clinical area guided predominantly by “high quality evidence” is living in a fantasy world. Go through the Sanford Guide. Take note of the references that inform up-to-date recommendations. Examine the makeup of IDSA’s guidelines and recommendations. It’s predominantly guided by limited small RCTs at best, observational human studies and expert opinion most frequently.

    Reputable and authoritative medical consensus-making entities/professional medical societies have systems of scoring recommendations. G.R.A.D.E. for example. 1=informed by high quality randomized db trials. 2=RCTs with important limitations, or cohort studies. 3=case controls or limited cohort studies 4=case series, descriptive studies 5=expert opinion. A=strongly recommend B=recommend. You can have 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B, 4B, etc. So, strong recommendations based on low-on-trial-hierarchy studies.

    What else would yield a strong recommendation if study design isn’t strong? Safety, magnitude and precision of effect, reproducibility, cost, effectiveness of alternatives, societal impact of effective treatment, severity of illness vs risks/costs/burdens of treatment. Most guidelines/recs are 2A or lower. 1A represents “best practices” and “standards of care.” Sweeping practice changing recs that you had better have a good reason NOT to do. Stroke, heart failure care, cancer/screening, etc, have such recs. Infectious disease management, except for pneumonia, bacterial sepsis, UTI, and some others, has few.

    Somehow, the brain of medicine at large has been damaged, and we all think 1A level data is meant to be used as a threshold to adopt a practice at all. And the notion that a pandemic should not impact this? Pure unprecedented idiocy.” –Eric Osgood MD, 01/15/2021

    • hillcountry says:

      a few other comments are interesting:

      “Pfizer told Wall Street how much they plan to increase the vaccine price. I calculated the numbers it is a market opportunity worth $50B USD. Assume IVM could save 500,000 lives globally, then Pfizer thinks $100,000 of sales is worth a human sacrifice.”

      “Thanks. That puts it into the kind of perspective that corporate toadies should be able to understand.”

      “First of all, many thanks to both of you for this superb presentation. Why isn’t WHO being challenged for conflict of interest by accepting massive amounts of its funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation? You don’t get an honest appraisal on IVM from someone whose existence is beholden to B&M and Big Pharma, both of whom would be massively “financially inconvenienced” should IVM’s efficacy be acknowledged and put into covid protocols.”

      “What scientific evidence did WHO give to support their statements – apparently none, other than grossly invalid statistical interpretations? Incompetent? or intentional? – I think the latter, but either way they are putting people’s lives on the line, and both are crimes given the circumstances and influence levels of WHO. Dr. Lawrie, on the other hand, has provided tons of very specific evidence. This MUST get into the courts, if there are any honest ones left. I sense in Dr. Lawrie an intense capacity for focus, integrity, and perseverance – formidable traits in the pursuit of truth. She is a potent adversary for the current collusion and corruption ongoing around ivermectin for covid.”

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      This is fascinating. Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security “The SPARS Pandemic 2025-2028 – A Futuristic Scenario for Public Health Risk Communications.” Completed October 2017. That’s right, before the COVID-19 scamdemic. Want to know how it ends?

      Recovery Scenario Timeline



      Crowd-sourced and independent epidemiology analysis of Corovax side effects conflicted with official federal reports. The independent analyses gained popularity in traditional and social media due to visual presentation and interactive content. Government attempts to respond with data and press releases largely failed.


      Reports of Corovax side effects began to gain traction. Several parents of children who experienced neurological symptoms after receiving the vaccination sued the federal government and CynBio. The lawsuit was dropped when they learned of compensation funds available through the PREP Act and the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Trust Fund.


      Initial reports of long-term side effects of the Corovax vaccine emerged. These reports arose primarily from those in the initial priority (high-risk) populations and were few in number. With little available data and numerous pre-existing conditions, initial studies were unable to identify a statistically significant association with any long-term effects. Claims for compensation were placed on indefinite hold until further data could be gathered and analysis completed.
      In response to public demand for long-term side effect compensation, the HHS Secretary invited Congress to conduct an independent investigation of the federal compensation process to alleviate concerns of impropriety.
      The public and media pressured Congress to increase the funds authorized for compensation under the PREP Act.



      The SPARS pandemic was officially declared to be over; however, experts remain concerned about domestic animal reservoirs and the potential for future outbreaks.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        So what’s the point of all of it if …

        The SPARS pandemic was officially declared to be over; however, experts remain concerned about domestic animal reservoirs and the potential for future outbreaks.

        This is not the actual CEP…. the CEP is much more comprehensive and includes the oil story… the central bank response… the prediction that 2019 would be The Year of Pushing on Strings….

        Think SPARS + The Perfect Storm + OFW …. on steroids…

        Nothing fixes oil. Hence the end game is extermination. It has to be

        • Azure Kingfisher says:

          I’m reminded of the following quote:

          “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay

          I haven’t read through all of the lovely SPARS pandemic script but I’ll be looking for mask wearing, restrictions on travel and lockdowns as I go.

          Other relevant scamdemic scrips include Event 201 and Crimson Contagion – both simulations carried out just before the COVID-19 scamdemic started.

          “…experts remain concerned about domestic animal reservoirs and the potential for future outbreaks.”
          Well, we always hear from the current experts on how we “need to be prepared for the next pandemic,” right? This keeps the masses frightened while justifying continued investment growth in the new COVID-19 economy.

          One of my favorites:

          “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.” – H. L. Mencken

          We built an entire security and antiterrorism economy following nine-e-leven, didn’t we? Been going for 19 years, 6 months, 3 weeks and 3 days, according to Wikipedia.
          How long can we keep the new COVID-19 economy going? We’ve got multiple vaccines, multiple new variants, emerging discussion on booster shots, passport systems being developed, tracking and tracing systems, multiple testing systems, multiple personal protective equipment manufacturers, research funding available, and on and on. We’ve shifted our focus now to the “War on COVID-19,” or the “War on Viruses.”

          You’re right, nothing fixes the oil dilemma. However, a scamdemic addresses this issue by slowing societies down and buying time. How many lives have been lost already due to denied or delayed medical care? Depression and suicide? Domestic violence? Poverty? Deaths due to lockdown policies which have been put in place to facilitate the restructuring of society. With these deaths comes a reduction in demand and energy consumption. For those who live through the restructuring they too will experience declining demand and declining energy consumption.

          I don’t think they need to deliberately exterminate millions or billions of people at once. If their goal is to reduce energy consumption due to declining resources then the lockdowns can be viewed as a partial success in this respect. Lockdowns have already killed many; the “Great Reset” or whatever you want to call this transition period will probably kill more; the vaccines may kill some while serving to sterilize others and thus limit future population growth. They can “tweak” future vaccines and booster shots (as Boris Johnson put it recently) which will enable them to perhaps finely tune their killing and/or sterilization methods going forward. Gradual, incremental change and shifting goalposts has been the process since the beginning of the scamdemic. Exterminating millions or billions of people at once would be so horrific that the “lucky few,” those selected to live by TPTB, would be unable to function in the new abnormal. Morale and motivation would be obliterated for the survivors.

          • If the economy has a problem in one direction, leaders need to invent good stories to divert attention to supposed problems in the opposite direction. This keeps the population from examining the real problem at hand. Instead, they hide in their homes, helping temporarily to solve the inadequate oil supply problem.

    • Mrs S says:

      This Spars document is horrifying.

      It’s clear that they know full well the horrific consequences that could result from administering a rushed vaccine. It’s not that they don’t know. They know. They don’t care.

  9. hillcountry says:

    Let’s do the Wiki on Satoshi Omura first, just so readers are acquainted with one name on this very recent paper I’d like to bring to attention. It doesn’t sound like these guys got the CEP-memo, so, maybe Fast Eddy, being much closer to Japan, can hand deliver it so they stop wasting their time and resources on curing Covid-19.

    “Satoshi Ōmura is known for the discovery and development of various pharmaceuticals originally occurring in microorganisms. He was awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine jointly with William C. Campbell and Tu Youyou for discoveries concerning a novel therapy against infections caused by roundworm parasites. More precisely, his research group isolated a strain of Streptomyces avermitilis that produce the anti-parasitical compound avermectin. Campbell later acquired these bacteria and developed the derived drug ivermectin that is today used against river blindness, lymphatic filariasis, scabies and other parasitic infections.[1][7][8]”

    “Since 1970s, Ōmura discoveries more than 480 new compounds, there are 25 kinds of drugs and reagents in use, such as a specific inhibitor of protein kinase: staurosporine, a proteasome inhibitor: lactacystin, a fatty acid biosynthesisinhibitor: cerulenin, and andrastin, herbimycin, neoxaline, and so on, which have greatly contributed to the elucidation of life phenomena. Furthermore, compounds having a unique structure and biological activity discovered by Omura are drawing attention as lead compounds in drug discovery research, and new anticancer drugs and the like have been created.”

    “A Children’s statues leading to adults of onchocerciasis before Kitasato University buildings were produced by sculptors of Burkina Faso in honor of Ōmura’s contributions of avermectin and ivermectin, a symbol of the campaign to eradicate onchocerciasis,[9] the similar life-sized Bronze statue is built in World Health Organization (WHO) Headquarters, Carter Center, Merck & Co., World Bank Headquarters, and Burkina Faso’s World Health Organization Africa Onchocerciasis Control Program.”

    On to the good stuff here, Satoshi and friends are still kicking out the jams. He’s 85 years young:


    TITLE: Global trends in clinical studies of ivermectin in COVID-19

    Morimasa Yagisawa, Ph.D.1,2, Patrick J. Foster, M.D.2 , Hideaki Hanaki, Ph.D.1 and Satoshi Ōmura, Ph.D.1 1 Kitasato University Ōmura Satoshi Memorial Institute 2 Keio University Faculty of Pharmacy

    (Received for publication March 10, 2021 and btw there’s 167 papers in the reference section)

    From Page 40-41 of 52

    “When the effectiveness of ivermectin for the COVID-19 pandemic is confirmed with the cooperation of researchers around the world and its clinical use is achieved on a global scale, it could prove to be of great benefit to humanity. It may even turn out to be comparable to the benefits achieved from the discovery of penicillin—said to be one of the greatest discoveries of the twentieth century. Here, one more use for ivermectin, which has been described as “miracle” or “wonder” drug, is being added. History has demonstrated that the existence of such natural product-derived compounds with such diverse effects is exceedingly rare.”

    “However, in order to pass on to posterity the fact that ivermectin has become widely used to control the world-shattering COVID-19 pandemic, only one simple action is required: the addition of only one word, “COVID-19”, to the 9th item (of the 11 listed) under the “Antiviral” category in the “Ivermectin: The Future” section of the Nobel Lectureʼs record entitled “Splendid Gift from the Earth”.” (Ōmura S: A splendid gift from the earth: The origins and impact of the avermectins (Nobel Lecture). Angew Chem Int Ed. 2016; 55: 10190–209.)

    “Acknowledgements and dedication. We would like to express our deep gratitude to Professor Satoshi Iwata, President of the Japan Antibiotics Research Association, and Professor Yasuo Ono, Editor-in-Chief of the journal The Japanese Journal of Antibiotics, for allowing us to contribute this review and encouraging us to write it.”

  10. Kowalainen says:

    Re: April fools surely?

    Apparently Billy G is trying to busy himself with spraying the atmosphere/stratosphere in my goddamn ancestry’s home turf with lime powder. Nope, can’t make this shit up.


    “However, the scientific community is divided regarding geoengineering, including any related technology tests such as the planned technical balloon test flight from Esrange this summer.”

    Is this some apocalyptic BS regarding lies and fairy tales of bygone eras or what? Wasn’t it supposed to be gold oxide that is sprayed to stop global cooling using defunct volcanoes?

    Assume for the sake of argument it was true, I don’t know, here’s a moron idea. How about give a helping hand pro bono free of charge for one bunch of crazies to the next? I know, it sounds obnoxious. But what do I know.

    Lemme guess; they have blown through finite resources in an alarming rate while busying themselves competing in vanity, obscenities, vulgarities, pride, debauchey, bestiality, pomp, regalia and warring. As father, as son.

    Extinction isn’t optional. Continuing the process of evolution, however, is.

    Repeat after me:


    One more time, just to be sure.



  11. hillcountry says:

    Dr. Mobeen analyzes a research paper on the likely mechanism by which Ivermectin blocks SARS-CoV-2 from entering cells and/or causing Red Blood Cells to clump because the pathogen has multiple binding sites related to CD147 proteins. It’s quite similar to how Ivermectin blocks the pathogen responsible for Malaria. He says it’s known that Type O blood has less of these CD147 proteins on their surface and explains less of the coagulation issues faced by those with Types A and B blood where the virus can bind to multiple RBC’s as well as to the CD147 proteins on the cells comprising the blood-vessel walls. Great cartoon pictures he’s drawn to simplify everything. He must be moonlighting with Fast Eddy or something. Which reminds me, hey, FE, would you see if Yeadon has a pad of prescription forms he could send us before the Pale Horse shows up?


    There’s a really interesting comment at the bottom of that section below the video about what’s going on in South Africa, comparing the Black Market in Ivermectin to Prohibition in the USA.

    • hillcountry says:

      Can’t recall if I posted this interview with Trevor Marshall who’s been onto the Ivermectin story since at least August 2020. His cohort that uses Olmesartan Medoxomil to active the pathogen-plagued Vitamin D Receptor, leading to so-called autoimmune disease, is reporting unexpected improvements in various other health concerns while taking Ivermectin. This is something being reported by Dr. Kory and Dr. Marik as well. Trevor Marshall chalks it up to the fact that most of us are host to a variety of pathogens we’ve picked-up along the way and the microbiome he’s interested in goes beyond just the gut, and into every tissue in the body, including the brain.

  12. The Great Culling

  13. Mirror on the wall says:

    A new Berkeley and Columbia study considers historical productivity growth in England and it concludes that the bourgeoisie become economically dominant before they took over the state in the Civil War and became politically dominant, which implies that economic development conditions ideological and political development.

    The bourgeoisie economically emerged, took over the aristocratic state and made it the bourgeois state, to entrench their own power, which it remains today. Thus the state is one of class power; its form is due not simply to the development of ‘good ideas’, as the Whigs (Tories) would have it, but to economic development.

    By the same token, an economic regression would seem to imply a political regression, in which case historical materialism may actually have an opposite political implication to that foreseen by Marx and Engels – but no crystal balls. The authors of the following article about the study lack finite world perspectives, so they seem to be overly optimistic about Malthus being wrong (not quoted below).


    > Capitalism and labour productivity

    ….. The materialist conception of history asserts that the material conditions of a society’s mode of production and the social classes that emerge in that mode of production ultimately determine a society’s relations and ideology. As Marx said in the preface to his 1859 book A contribution to the critique of political economy,

    “The mode of production of material life conditions the general process of social, political and intellectual life. It is not the consciousness of men that determines their existence, but their social existence that determines their consciousness.”1

    That general view has been vindicated many times in studies of the economic and political history of human organisation. That is particularly the case in explaining the rise of capitalism to become the dominant mode of production.

    And now there is new study that adds yet more support for the materialist conception of history. Three scholars at Berkeley and Columbia Universities have published a paper: When did growth begin? New estimates of productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870.2

    They attempt to measure when productivity growth (output per worker or worker hours) really took off in England – one of the first countries where the capitalist mode of production became dominant. They find that there was hardly any growth in productivity before 1600, but it started to take off well before the so-called ‘Glorious Revolution’ of 1688 – when England became a ‘constitutional monarchy’ and the political rule of the merchants and capitalist landowners was established. These scholars find that, from about 1600 to 1810, there was a modest rise of the productivity of the labour force in England of about 4% in each decade (or 0.4% a year), but after 1810 with the industrialisation of Britain, there was a rapid acceleration of productivity growth to about 18% every decade (or 1.8% a year). The move from agricultural capitalism of the 17th century to industrial capitalism transformed the productivity of labour.

    The authors comment:

    “… our evidence helps distinguish between theories of why growth began. In particular, our findings support the idea that broad-based economic change preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England and may have contributed to causing them.”

    In other words, it was the change in the mode of production and the social classes that came first; the political changes came later.

    As the authors go on to say, “an important debate regarding the onset of growth is whether economic change drove political and institutional change, as Marx famously argued, or whether political and institutional change kick-started economic growth”. The authors do not want to accept Marx’s conception outright and seek to argue that “reality is likely more complex than either polar view”. But they cannot escape their own results: that productivity growth began almost a century before the Glorious Revolution and well before the English Civil War. And “this supports the Marxist view that economic change contributed importantly to 17th century institutional change in England”.

    …. Most important, the study refutes the ‘Whig interpretation of history’: namely that human ‘civilisation’ is one of gradual progress, with changes coming from wiser ideas and political forms constructed by clever people.4 Instead, the evidence of productivity growth in England shows “sharp and sizable shifts in average growth”, supporting the notion that “something changed”: ie, that “the transition from stagnation to growth was more than a steady process of very gradually increased growth”. On the gradual Whig interpretation, the authors conclude that “the results do not support this view of history”.

    Also, the study shows that, as sustained productivity growth began in England substantially before the Glorious Revolution of 1688, it was not the change in political institutions that led to economic growth. On the contrary, it was the change in economic relations that led to productivity growth and then political change: “While the institutional changes associated with the Glorious Revolution may well have been important for growth, our results contradict the view that these events preceded the onset of growth in England.”

    • Kowalainen says:

      Who could have thought that trade among merchants and craftsmen ultimately lead to prosperity, (assuming it can be powered by readily available natural resources)?

      It is due to:

      1. Increased overall economic activity giving opportunity for less successful coding sequences (genes) to participate.
      2. Increased genetic mixing between successful coding sequences through trade and centers of education/manufacturing

      Don’t mess around with nature. Amateur hour (rapacious primate) eugenics programs for sure is going to give a worse result than just random plus trading and crafting.

      This is why silly elitist group therapy clubs/sessions of mutual admiration and eugenics shenanigans gives me peak cringes. It is the defiance of natural selection, or with other words an abandonment of liberty and equality of opportunity.

      If I’d have offspring, zero, indeed, they’d get absolutely nothing in inheritance or unfair advantage. Sword in hand booted out the door. *GLHF, love ya, but the process is more important than either of us”



      • Mirror on the wall says:

        A more historically informed schema would have it that technological development conditions the productive relations, and that allowed for the emergence of wage labour in the place of feudal fiefdom. The shift in productive, property relations in turn conditioned ideology and politics and gave rise to the bourgeois state in the place of the aristocratic economic and social order of the Middle Ages.

        Aristocracy bred humans within castes, and bourgeois social relations gradually broke that down although people do still tend to marry their own socio-economic and educational peers, so stratification persists. Thus economic, social, political and breeding practices are not ‘natural’, rather humans actively transform the conditions of their material and social life and that somewhat transforms the patterns in which they behave.

        The bourgeois politico-socio-economic order is not ‘natural’, it is very recent and rare in historical terms, and caste is the historical ‘norm’. Indeed bourgeois social relations are ‘eternal’ in neither ‘direction’ and finite world perspectives suggest that a reversion to the historical ‘norm’ is likely as the economic and energetic base declines and the material conditions of life return to levels of productivity akin to the pre-bourgeois period.

        Neither is there any ‘moral’ basis for posturing about it. ‘Morality’ as an aspect of the ideological superstructure, is conditioned along with social and political life as a whole by developments in the technological and energetic economic base. Thus ‘values’ are ‘epiphenomenal’ (in the sense of political philosophy) and there is no ‘supra-historical’ standpoint by which to ‘evaluate’ socio-political orders or their facets.

        History proceeds, not necessarily in one ‘direction’, according to ‘necessity’, and without any ‘telos’, ‘aim’ or ‘criterion’. ‘It is what it is.’ The ‘values’ that people have today, apply today, and it is ‘right’ that they should do so, in so far as history affords only historically located and determined ideological forms. That is not to suggest however that there is anything ‘absolute’ about them or about any other.

        They simply reflect how the current economic society ‘functions’. Humans are obviously free to have their own ideas and ‘values’ – ‘elitist’ or ‘egalitarian’ – as ‘conditioned’ as they may tend to be. Capitalist society, in practice, is a bit of a ‘mish mash’ of the two. It is a class society but one that postulates ‘social mobility’, the ‘American dream’. Social mobility has largely collapsed however, along with the productivity growth on which it depends, since the 1970s, leaving largely stratified, even polarised societies.

        • Kowalainen says:

          For sure it has stagnated, it is by design. Cant have a wildfire of fit and diverse gene pools torching the established order.

          They have warred, raped, sent other people’s children to die and it is THEIRS and their shitty ass offsprings, even if it means regressing back to the social order and technology of medieval times. That is what the myopia of the ordinary, delusion and nostalgia does to a halfwitted, inbred, loonie mind.

          Therefore, let ‘em blow through the finite resources until all what is left is a smoldering pile of greenhouse gasss and useless eaters, which easily can be dispatched to the happy hunting grounds of equality of outcome and woke eternity.

          Something like that.
          Why make shit complicated?


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      This is the paper itself, with conclusions quoted. The rest of the paper is methodology and analysis of results.

      > When Did Growth Begin?

      New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870

      Paul Bouscasse, Columbia University, Emi Nakamura, UC Berkeley, Jon Steinsson, UC Berkeley

      March 22, 2021


      We provide new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. We develop and implement a new methodology for estimating productivity that accounts for these Malthusian dynamics. In the early part of our sample, we find that productivity growth was zero. Productivity growth began in 1600 – almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Post-1600 productivity growth had two phases: an initial phase of modest growth of 4% per decade between 1600 and 1810, followed by a rapid acceleration at the time of the Industrial Revolution to 18% per decade. Our evidence helps distinguish between theories of why growth began. In particular, our findings support the idea that broad-based economic change preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England and may have contributed to causing them. We also estimate the strength of Malthusian population forces on real wages. We find that these forces were sufficiently weak to be easily overwhelmed by post-1800 productivity growth.


      …. Our main finding is that productivity growth in England began in 1600. Before that time there was no productivity growth at all. Between 1600 and 1810, productivity growth was modest at about 4% per decade. Productivity growth then dramatically increased after 1810 to about 18% per decade. These results indicate that there was a two hundred year transition period — 1600 to 1810 — between the era of total stagnation and the era of rapid modern growth that was ushered in by the Industrial Revolution.

      Our results help distinguish between different theories of why growth began. They suggest that researchers should focus on developments proximate to the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries. An important debate regarding the onset of growth is whether economic change drove political and institutional change as Marx famously argued or whether political and institutional change kick-started economic growth (e.g., North and Thomas, 1973). Reality is likely more complex than either polar view. However, our result that productivity growth began almost a century before the Glorious Revolution and well before the English Civil War supports the Marxist view – articulated for example by Hill (1940, 1961) – that economic change contributed importantly to 17th century institutional change in England.

      …. Conclusion

      In this paper, we use a Malthusian model to estimate the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870. Our principle finding is that productivity growth began in 1600. Before 1600, productivity growth was zero. We estimate a growth rate of productivity of 4% per decade between 1600 and 1810. In 1810, the growth rate of productivity increases sharply to 18% per decade. These results indicate that sustained growth in productivity began well before the Glorious Revolution. They point in particular to the early 17th century as a crucial turning point for productivity growth in England, a result that helps distinguish between competing lines of thought for the ultimate causes of the emergence of growth.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Vikings showed up and wiped the slate clean (mostly) of the remaining evolutionary stagnant cruft.

        The Eurasian pastorialist gene pool isn’t playing games with lesser sapiens. Coin, honor, duty, occasionally wielding an axe, bow and arrow, broads and booze. Why make shit complicated?

        Cuz “god” will judge you – sinner.

        All right. Nah, fsck that sanctimony.
        BURN. IT. DOWN. 🔥


      • Robert Firth says:

        As an Englishman, I profoundly disagree. The driver for England’s growth started almost a century earlier, with a growing awareness of the importance of technology. This went into high gear with the reign of Henry VIII, who sponsored innovation in many areas, famously shipbuilding, other transport, and more modern construction techniques.

        Of course, it took time for this idea to trickle down through the aristocracy and the bourgeoisie, but this kind of innovation was becoming common practice by 1600, and increased productivity followed as a matter of course.

        These authors should have ignored Marx and read Kondratiev instead.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          What exactly are you disagreeing with?

          The study argues that:

          – Productivity growth took off around 1600, before which there was none, and it increased around 1810

          – Bourgeois institutions were established after the spread of agricultural capitalism

          – Economic change thus preceded institutional change

          – The increases in productivity growth around 1600 and 1810 took place as abrupt changes as new technologies were implemented.

          On the converse:

          – Bourgeois institutional change did not precede the onset of productivity growth

          – The increase in growth was not gradual.

          The authors find that supports Marx’s contention that economic development drives political institutional change rather than vice versa. The bourgeoisie had already emerged economically before it took over the state and entrenched its own political power.

          The Marxist view is that technology conditions property relations (eg. the spread of wage labour and surplus value, capitalism, in agriculture) and that in turn conditions political institutions (eg. the shift to the bourgeois state). Thus government policy to pursue technology in feudal times (eg. Henry VIII) ultimately facilitated the shift to capitalism and then to bourgeois institutions.

          Thus English history is one of abrupt economic changes as new technologies spread, and an abrupt class revolution, rather than one of gradual, smooth development.

          You indicate that technological change drives economic change, which Marx would agree with. The study fills in the next part, that economic change drives pollical institutional change as one class took over from another, the bourgeoisie from the aristocracy.

          • Robert Firth says:

            My apologies for not making myself clear. I was not disagreeing with the facts, but rather with their interpretation of the facts, which in my view cannot be made to fit a Marxist paradigm. The innovations in England’s sixteenth century came from a small number of individuals with the vision to seek new paradigms; they were not in any way the result of dome quasi deterministic process.

            In particular, the great divergence between Spanish and English shipbuilding techniques, the former static, the latter innovative, was largely the result of one far sighted individual, Henry VIII. The end result, in 1588, was a naval battle in which the English lost not a single ship.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              I think that you are struggling to disagree with Marx just for the sake of it and that you risk lapsing into straw man.

              Marxism obviously does not exclude the role of individuals and groups in technological innovation or in the initiation of new forms of economic activity. Which new ways succeed is determined by the prevailing social and economic environment. Simply, new capitalist property forms, made possible by new technologies, were more profitable than the old feudal property forms and they managed to get a foothold.

              As Marx put it in the 18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte, “Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past.”

              Nothing in that changes the findings of the study, that shifts in productivity growth and political institutions were abrupt as new technologies were implemented and new property forms emerged, the one driving the other, and not gradual. If that supports the Marxist and not the Whig view of history, then that is just how it is.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Yeah, I find it rather odd with pandering to royalty. Robert perhaps got some royal blood and feel entitled to protest?

              I guess you don’t see me pander with slightly genetically modified primates, Swedes and petty-minded Laplanders, while being one myself? Oh no, nobody’s got the out of jail free card, including me. Nono.

              (Why is it so difficult separating the message from the messenger?)

              If Karl Marx, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin agrees on three ideas X, Y and Z. Then upon closer inspection those seem to correspond with objective reality. Are we then supposed to reject that based on exactly what, our feelz and emotions for them being crap in general?

              How absurd.

              This nauseating in-group psychosocial conditioning does this. How about this; yield to the reality that nobody’s perfect, including you and move on with life. How princess does an ego have to be? Just fix the most blatant contradictions, absurdities and take another step ahead in the game of life.

              As for me, it is simple really. Man makes himself, wether that is true in ultimate objective reality can be debated. But let’s go with the illusion for the sake of it and spend less time worrying about the past, origins, lineages, etc.

              I offer you this example. What difference does it make if your partner is far left, liberal right, neocon, black skinned, blue, yellow, white, brown, green, lizard eyed with the grin of a predator? It is just fickle ideas and genetics, perpetually broken, and hot broads are hot no matter what. Watch me not care, no, not about that. Obviously I care about hot broads. The other thing of course.

              And who wouldn’t like to have a vicious broad with lizard eyes, skin and a grin that changes the course of evolution? How lovely. And omg, the shits and giggles introducing “her”. Behold what I am about to show thee, ‘o mother and ‘o father!

              Sympathy? Bestiality? Rubbish…, it’s just food and good sport. Amateurs pander the ego. Whatever works stays, just don’t eat me.

              (I gotta stop watching amusing lizard BS on YouTube)


            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Marx did not understand the central role of energy in economic activity. There is not one mention in the report of the firewood supply crisis that hastened the transition from charcoal to coal (see below).

              And in the entire report the role of coal in the Industrial Revolution gets a passing, one-para mention in reference to another paper.


            • Robert Firth says:

              Mirror, you just tripped over my criticism and walked away: “Which new ways succeed is determined by the prevailing social and economic environment.”

              That statement is simply not true; it is a determinist myth. Which new ways succeed depends on the individuals who adopt and propagate them; remove those individuals (usually a very small number), and society will remain static.

              For a far deeper analysis, read Arnold Toynbee’s essay, “The Role of Individuals in Human Affairs”.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Robert, where is the contradiction?

              Cant good ideas, good men and woman prevail? They seem hell bent on that, even to the point of being nailed to a cross for their obnoxious ideas and ideals. Just because people are fickle and flimsy beings doesn’t necessitate the inclusion of their ideas and genes.

              It seems very evolutionary to me. That which works (better) inevitably stays in the end.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Harry, of course Marx understood the role of energy and of coal in particular, he was an economist and an economic historian who gave special attention to development of England, and he mentioned the use of coal hundreds of times. The use of technology depends on the availability of materials, including energy sources, and technology in turn drives the use of energy and its various sources. The use of an energy source is also determined by its depletion and by the profitability of its use in the market.

              This is Engels on the depletion of charcoal and the switch to the use of coal in England during the Industrial Revolution.

              > Nor is the gigantic advance achieved in English manufacture since 1760 restricted to the production of clothing materials. The impulse, once given, was communicated to all branches of industrial activity, and a multitude of inventions wholly unrelated to those here cited received double importance from the fact that they were made in the midst of the universal movement. But as soon as the immeasurable importance of mechanical power was practically demonstrated, every energy was concentrated in the effort to exploit this power in all directions, and to exploit it in the interest of individual inventors and manufacturers; and the demand for machinery, fuel, and materials called a mass of workers and a number of trades into redoubled activity. The steam-engine first gave importance to the broad coal-fields of England; the production of machinery began now for the first time, and with it arose a new interest in the iron mines which supplied raw material for it. The increased consumption of wool stimulated English sheep breeding, and the growing importation of wool, flax, and silk called forth an extension of the British ocean carrying trade. Greatest of all was the growth of production of iron. The rich iron deposits of the English hills had hitherto been little developed; iron had always been smelted by means of charcoal, which became gradually more expensive as agriculture improved and forests were cut away. The beginning of the use of coke in iron smelting had been made in the last century, and in 1780 a new method was invented of converting into available wrought-iron coke-smelted iron, which up to that time had been convertible into cast-iron only. This process, known as “puddling”, consisted in withdrawing the carbon which had mixed with the iron during the process of smelting, and opened a wholly new field for the production of English iron. Smelting furnaces were built fifty times larger than before, the process of smelting was simplified by the introduction of hot blasts, and iron could thus be produced so cheaply that a multitude of objects which had before been made of stone or wood were now made of iron.

              …. The population of Birmingham grew from 73,000 in 1801 to 200,000 in 1844; that of Sheffield from 46,000 in 1801 to 110,000 in 1844, and the consumption of coal in the latter city alone reached in 1836, 515,000 tons. In 1805 there were exported 4,300 tons of iron products and 4,600 tons of pig-iron; in 1834, 16,200 tons of iron products and 107,000 tons of pig-iron, while the whole iron product, reaching in 1740 but 17,000 tons, had risen in 1834 to nearly 700,000 tons. The smelting of pig-iron alone consumes yearly more than 5,000,000 tons of coal, and the importance which coal-mining has attained in the course of the last 60 years can scarcely be conceived. All the English and Scotch deposits are now worked, and the mines of Northumberland and Durham alone yield annually more than 5,000,000 tons for shipping, and employ from 40 to 50,000 men.


            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Robert, you are wasting my time with straw men. Read the quote from 18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte. Of course individuals can influence events and of course the wider social and economic environment determines whether they are able to do so, with a given scheme, in an effective manner. It would be a ridiculous one-sided reductionism to reduce progress to individual humans, in abstraction from all prevailing conditions, and neither Toynbee nor anyone else does that. Not even the grand individualist Nietzsche would come out with that. No one has gone for that lunacy.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Marx and Engels may have observed in great detail the mechanics of the Industrial Revolution but that did not translate into a proper understanding of how central the amount of surplus energy flowing through an economy is to productivity, wage-growth etc.

              For Marx, productivity was dependent on the amount of capital, as he defined it, per worker. Wages were primarily governed by a tug of war between the workers and capitalists, with the amount of unemployed the key variable. Energy surplus levels did not factor into his analysis, as far as I am aware.

              He foresaw crises of inadequate consumer demand, as per Gail’s analyses, but he did not tie this in with declining net energy.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Marx was an economist and he obviously understood the role of energy sources and their interconnected functionality within capitalist economics. I stated in the opening post that Marx lacked finite world perspectives, at least in their full implication, as did everyone else for a century. The present study concerns the economic, ideological and political feudal-capitalist transition and not capitalist crisis theory however, so that is both obvious and besides the point.

              However, it is easy to overestimate Marx’s energetic naivety.

              > Metabolism, Energy, and Entropy in Marx’s Critique of Political Economy: Beyond the Podolinsky Myth


            • Harry McGibbs says:

              It’s not just that the present study lacks the subtleties of finite world perspective – it purports to examine why productivity-growth took off circa 1600 and yet fails to mention even once the wood supply crisis that was *foundational* to that.

              We can forgive 19th century Marx the gaps in his knowledge (and “Beyond the Podolinsky Myth” is tantalising in its implications) but the productivity-growth study was published in 2021 with the entire internet at the authors’ disposal. It blows my mind a little.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              The shift from wood to coal simply falls under ‘technological development and its use of fuel’ along with other technological changes of the time. Technology changed and its use of fuel, who knew? That in no way alters the findings of the study, which I have already listed a number of times. The ‘objection’ is irrelevant as is the silly posturing about Marx, as if you know the first thing about his writings. You have already made clear that you do not. I am sorry but you simply fail to understand the argument and how technology and fuel fit into the picture. This exchange is over, as it should have been last night.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “The ‘objection’ is irrelevant…”

              I don’t think it is irrelevant to point out – on a blog that specifically deals with the pivotal relationship between energy consumption and economic activity – that this study fails to even mention the key energetic transition in the period it covers. 🤷‍♀️

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              What is wrong with you, you are acting like a child. The study is about what it is about.

  14. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Lebanon’s caretaker Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said Friday that the country would run out of money to fund basic imports by the end of May…

    “One of the country’s four main electricity producers, the Zahrani power plant, shut down Monday after it ran out of fuel. A second plant, Deir ‘Ammar, shut down Thursday.”


  15. This is the Government’s vaccine passport template – those without smartphones will get papers to show their status

  16. Professor Gupta: Lockdowners Should Hang their Heads in Shame

    AIER is pleased to offer the full transcript of this important interview with Professor Sunetra Gupta of Oxford University.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hur mår Sverige:

      Yeah, Anthony Fauci, of course being the leader of the pandemic restrictions and politics in the US. And I mean, the Great Barrington Declaration, was founded by you and a very prominent researcher in Harvard and in Stanford, and also signed by Nobel Laureate, Michael Levitt, among other very high profile researchers in infectious diseases and many other fields. Are you surprised that you didn’t get to come to the government, get your proposition out there and have a serious debate about different ways to handle the pandemic? Are you surprised that there was such a hard drive to the other way, to go to lock down and these policies that now are so disastrous for many countries?

      Dr. Sunetra Gupta:

      Yes, it’s mystifying. I mean, of course, myself and then another researcher at Oxford, Carl Heneghan, who has been very, very active in showing the data, showing evidence-based medicine. Well, he is the head of evidence-based medicine here in Oxford, and he has taken a very data-driven approach to this whole process. And we were both asked to, it’s no secret now, to present our ideas at a cabinet meeting, but they were then immediately dismissed and did not get to be debated at all. There was no debate, debate was actively shut down, so that’s mystifying to me. In fact, what happened instead was a series of ad hominem attacks and campaigns were launched against us.

      Sunetra is unable to go where Yeadon has gone…. where Fast Eddy has been for nearly one year now…. if you are mystified … when something is completely illogical…

      You have to think — do the men who are behind this have a suicide wish? Obviously not …. so you have to try to work out why they would burn down their house…. you only do that if you Fear something worse than burning down your house…

      Now what could that be…. it’s a giant leap to connect that to the oil situation …

      Sunetra is a highly intelligent person … but she is a flea in comparison to the Magnificent Entity with the 1000+ IQ otherwise known as … Fast Eddy.

      I could have a 45 minute discussion with her detailing the Big Picture… and it would be like trying to explain quantum physics to a 3 yr old…..

      This is the breadth of the chasm between intelligent…. and true genius….

      Is it not true genius to conclude that ‘intelligence’ is stooopidity … because nothing good has come of it… absolutely nothing.

      The Borg is about to murder itself… and it’s so f789ing stooopid it doesn’t even realize it … it will go down believing it is superior…

      Meanwhile… the earthworms and the bacteria and the viruses will go on … and on … and on…..

        • Kowalainen says:

          Oh how I would love to be a fly in the wall of these so called elitist therapy session crony club meetings and just LMAO and cringe.

          Look and listen at them self entitled princesses of IC wallowing about in their dimwitted egos sharing inbred muppetry among themselves.

          Imagine, they resent their own produce. How bad of a craftsman does one have to be? Building a shitty house and hating it. Perhaps, just perhaps, the house and tools isn’t the problem here? Could the problems originate from somewhere else? I don’t know about you, to me, that seems entirely likely.

          Botched jobs since day one. It’s what privilege and unfair advantages does to ‘ya. Sooner or later dumb creeps into the gene and meme pools.

          Repeat after me.






          See the difference? No, obviously not.

          Now where is my hot alien broad with vicious raptor eyes and zero shits, all giggles and limitless awesome.

          I want to kick this rapacious primate shit-show into high gear. Bring on the hot coding sequences.


  17. Polish pastor defends his Christian church during Passover and yells at Canadian police “get out, you psychopaths!”

  18. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Cybersecurity Ventures research states that cybercrime will cost the global economy $6.1 trillion annually by this year, making it [equivalent to] the world’s third largest economy…

    “The number of attacks has gone up considerably since the outbreak of COVID-19.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The Pandemic Causes Nearly Two Thirds of All Fraud Attacks To Be on Mobiles According To Sift Report…

      “Sift, a fraud prevention company has released its Q1 2020 Digital Trust and Safety Index report, which revealed that the average value of fraudulent purchase attempts increased 69% in 2020.”


      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “More prosecutions involving cryptocurrency scams are expected to reach the UK courts as criminals increasingly turn to cyber fraud, the director of the Crown Prosecution Service has said.

        “Reports of scams relating to cryptocurrency investments rose 57 per cent to 5,581 in the 12 months to December 2020…”


        • Robert Firth says:

          Save scarce police and court resources and save newsprint. Our ancestors knew the score: “A fool and his money are soon parted.” It was ever so.

    • People with computer/internet skills and nothing else to do will turn to cybercrime, I am afraid.

      • People with computer/internet skills and nothing else to do +[ maniacally lusting to acquire status symbol things by whatever means] will turn to cybercrime, I am afraid.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Or just program? It is not exactly hard to find a well paying job if you got a knack in thinking about code.

          Unemployed software developers in the world must be a rounding error toward zero.

          • Actually, “No.” The percentage of people who get a degree in programming and stay in programming 20 years later is surprisingly small later (20%???). All of the (hopefully) easy to program stuff is sent to China or India, where programmers work for much lower wages. Tech support tends to be sent to those countries as well.

            There is also some work that put up on sites specializing in this, asking programmers to bid on doing a particular one-time job. The companies sponsoring these sites take a share of the revenue. These are not very long-term jobs and don’t pay well.

            The remaining jobs pay quite well, but they have long lists of requirements to go with them. Employers want many different types of computer programming skills, and often experience to go with each of them. Often, they want people who can supervise off-site people, including some workers in India or China. There are some entry level jobs, but after a time, people in these jobs often find themselves laid off and the job sent to China or India. At least this has been the experience of my two sons in programming, and with some older women I know who used to be programmers, but their jobs “went away.”

            Every language is constantly being upgraded, and the languages that are in fashion keep changing. Programmers need to keep learning the new techniques, to keep up. It is a rapidly moving treadmill.

            This is an article I found called Please don’t learn to code, outlining a few of the problems would-be programmers run into.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Actually yes.

            Show me statistics of unemployed current and “former” software developers, or thereof moving into management, systems design and related field of complex systems. in the Americas, EU and Asia.

            Or of any engineers for that matter.

            Can’t find decent coders in Asia, nor in the west for “free” anymore. It just doesn’t exist. Outsource coding where? The moon? Aliens?

            Who exactly do you think keeps the shebang from ticking over? Some halfwits in banking, finance and legalese? I assure you, it’s not how shit works.

            Zero. Unemployment.

            • They move into new fields completely. The dropouts were never the stars of the show.

              It is always surprising to me the large number of people who end up working in fields other than the ones that they trained in.

            • Yorchichan says:

              Although my degree is in mathematics, I did end up programming for 20 years with various organisations and what Gail has written rings true to me. At busy times there were attempts to outsource coding to India, but these invariably ended in disaster because the code was too complex for anyone unfamiliar with our way of doing things. Every exported project ended up having to be rewritten in house. Managers can be slow learners.

              I eventually gave up in 2010. There were a variety of reasons for this, but one factor was the switch from windows programming to dotnet. By that point, I had tired of having to learn new skills. Looking back, I wish I had spent my whole career in front of a wheel rather than a VDU. More fun, more freedom and, at least initially, a lot more money.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Of course you outsource to India to get a rough prototype running when the internal team(s) are busy maintaining an over engineered abstraction fest.

              Code isn’t “rewritten” it is a process. Complex code bases is usually a sign of something gone wrong.

              C# is a rather nice programming language. If it wasn’t for python and it’s sprawling ecosystem. C is for stuff that doesn’t get old. If you’re in a hurry, let a GPU/CUDA make short work of those arrays/tensors and signal processing pipelines.

  19. Yoshua says:

    “Bitcoin is the most crowded trade right now, a new CNBC survey shows”

    What? This is going to end badly.

    No one knows who Mr Pool is. He and Archilect sometimes posts the same image at the moment. Archilect is an AI.

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    Brits holidaying in Spain will have to wear a mask on the beach – and even in the sea


    And the CovIDIOTS will put on the masks.. and swim

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    Brits holidaying in Spain will have to wear a mask on the beach – and even in the sea


    • Yorchichan says:

      Looks like I’ll be swapping Ibiza for Scarborough from now on, although if I fancy somewhere really exotic I can still go to Torquay (the English Riviera).

    • JesseJames says:

      Turns out there are millions of viruses in seawater….most of them unknown. They apparently do not kill us.

  22. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Protesters have rallied in central London and dozens of other cities in England and Wales against a crime bill that critics say will impose severe restrictions on the right to protest.”


    “This anti-protest bill risks making the UK like Putin’s Russia… If this bill passes into law unamended, we’re heading for more ugly conflicts between the public and the police – and a police force that’s weaker for it.”


  23. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Russia has issued tenders to buy anti-riot kits and protective police gear, state procurement documents showed, ahead of a protest that allies of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny hope will be the largest in modern Russian history.”


  24. Harry McGibbs says:

    “From child care to COVID, rising US job market faces obstacles…

    “Many people who’ve been thrown out of the labor force remain fearful of the coronavirus and reluctant to take face-to-face service jobs. Millions of women are still caring for children attending school online — and can’t take jobs because they can’t find or afford child care.”


  25. Harry McGibbs says:

    “How Dublin quietly became dumping ground for some of Europe’s riskiest corporate loans:

    “…Dublin already accounted for about 70 per cent of European CLO assets before the flight of Dutch vehicles. Now it’s home for almost the entire market, even if the assets are managed predominantly from overseas.

    “The level of CLO assets in Ireland is now 10 times what it was six years ago, making it the fastest-growing business area in the already outsized Irish shadow banking hub – relative to the size of the economy.”


    • Ireland has been a tax haven for international organizations. This probably adds to the likelihood that financial wizardry will end up in Ireland.

  26. Yoshua says:

    A scientific theory must give predictable results.

    Is it possible to to calculate when the system collapses and reset takes place? I don’t know.

    The elites are talking about the reset. Maybe it’s a plan…a warning.

    Mr Pool’s posted a new image that leads to this song

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Is “Mr. Pool” Tim Pool? That’s the first name that came up when I googled.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Could the vaccine rollout be ignoring important legal requirements? Peter Williams talks to lawyer Sue Grey


  28. The State Duma warned Ukraine and NATO against the war over Crimea

    Potential aggression by Ukraine and NATO against Crimea will end in disaster for the initiators of the conflict. This was announced on April 3 by the State Duma deputy from the Crimean region Mikhail Sheremet.

    On the eve, the representative of Ukraine in the trilateral contact group on Donbass, Oleksiy Arestovich, confirmed that the exercises with NATO Defender Europe 2021 are necessary for the country to practice the war with Russia, the main focus is the Balkans and Crimea.

    “The masks have been dropped completely. After such a statement, no one in the West can deny the aggressive nature of NATO. But just before taking any military steps towards Russia, I would advise them to read the history of the Great Patriotic War and think again. The consequences for the aggressor will be very dire, ”the parliamentarian said. “RIA News”…

    Sheremet recalled that Russia possesses the latest ultra-precise weapons, therefore, “one should not speak the language of force with it.” The deputy also stressed that the residents of Crimea have nothing to fear, since the peninsula is reliably protected and protected from any invasion.

    In addition, Sheremet noted that “all this military fuss is not conceived in Kiev, but in the United States,” and expressed regret that in the era of the coronavirus pandemic in the world, Washington is trying to take advantage of the situation and “kindle new wars in order to then fuck profit on human misery ”.

    Senator from the Crimean region, member of the international committee of the Federation Council Sergei Tsekov, in turn, compared Ukraine with a free NATO military training ground.

    “I believe that the time will come when Ukraine will realize that NATO only unleashed and supported wars in many countries of the world. NATO is an aggressor, not a defender, ”he said.

    In May-June, NATO will hold the largest since the Cold War exercises Defender Europe 2021. The exercises are planned to work out defensive and offensive actions in the Baltic States and Eastern Europe. The alliance actively attracts Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova from partner countries.

    On April 1, telephone conversations took place between the heads of the military departments of Ukraine and the United States, Andrei Taran and Lloyd Austin. As a result, the statement of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense noted that “in the event of an escalation of Russian aggression, the United States will not leave Ukraine alone and will not allow the implementation of aggressive aspirations” in relation to it.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Crimea has been a Russian possession about as long as the US has been a country.
      9 out of 10 residents are Russian, and Russian is the spoken language.
      It could be returned to the original residents, and of course, the US should be given back to its original residents (I would be forced to leave).
      How about it campers?

  29. Russian analyst warns European or world war could break out in Ukraine

    A European or even World War could be triggered in four in Ukraine after Russia dispatched 4,000 to the disputed border with its neighbour, warns an independent Russian military analyst.

    It comes as social media footage footage shows suspected large scale Russian military movements in regions close to rebel-held eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea.

    With tension sharply rising, analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, 69, said it now requires a ‘psychoanalyst’ to determine Russia’s intentions in Ukraine but warned events could see ‘war in a month’.

    The West has expressed alarm about Moscow’s movement of troops and forces, and Felgenhauer says they are right to be concerned as unverified new footage appears to show military movements in Russia’s Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar regions, along with key railway routes.

    ‘The crisis has the potential to escalate into a pan-European war, if not even a world one,’ Felgenhauer warned starkly in an interview with Rosbalt news outlet in Russia.

    ‘But for now, potential. Will it happen or not? Let’s wait and see. In the West, they don’t know what to do about it.’

    • Ed says:

      The US needs to hold a drag queen fashion show on the border of Ukraine featuring US military men. That will have the Russians quaking in their boots.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Devil Covid + Starvation + 10,000 Nuclear War Heads Exploding and for dessert .. 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds…

      That’s your 4 course Extinction Degustation Menu.

  30. Mirror on the wall says:

    The Sunday Times has Salmond’s Alba up to 6% – enough to gain it 6 seats on the list system. The same effect would follow if more SNP voters gave their second vote to the Greens (only 10% of them do), now that they are more aware of how the system works in that regard. This could turn into a rout for the unionists in 4 weeks time.

    > Scottish independence likely to win supermajority at Holyrood elections

    Today’s poll of 1,009 voters points to the SNP, which is a minority administration, gaining two seats to secure an outright majority of one. With the Scottish Greens tipped to pick up eight seats (up two from 2016) and Alba six, there would be a pro-independence majority of 29.


  31. Ramping up the Fear Factor

    Epidemiologist Who Helped Wipe Out Smallpox Issues Stark Warning About COVID-19 Variants

    “We have to have a backup plan in addition to vaccinating everybody as fast as we can,” Dr. Larry Brilliant told CNN’s Erin Burnett.

    Epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant, best known for his work eradicating smallpox, on Thursday expressed concerns over new coronavirus variants and stressed the need for a backup plan in addition to vaccinations to control the pandemic.

    “I’m quite worried about the variants. We seem to be getting not only many variants, but variants of concern almost every week,” Brilliant told CNN’s Erin Burnett. Daily new infections in the United States have plateaued at around 60,000, and public health experts warn that a fourth wave of the virus could be about to crash down on the country.

    A coronavirus strain that originated in South Africa, for example, renders the AstraZeneca vaccine 90% ineffective, Brilliant pointed out. A variant first seen in Brazil can allow reinfection, and one that emerged in the United Kingdom is more transmissible.

    “I do think we have to have a backup plan in addition to vaccinating everybody as fast as we can,” said Brilliant. “I think we have to get really much better at outbreak containment, detecting of diseases, finding them, isolating them, and vaccinating them with the vaccine that matches the variant that our genomics tells us they have.”

    Burnett asked if vaccine booster shots being developed against the variants would be enough.

    “I think it could be that the booster does it,” Brilliant replied. “I’m hopeful that there’ll be boosters that vaccinate us and immunize us for everything since the last vaccine we had. But, in addition, we will have dozens of vaccines and some will match better against certain variants.”

    Effectively matching the right vaccine to the right strain “will become more and more important” in future months, Brilliant predicted.

    • Can’t Brilliant think about ways of improving immune systems before getting the disease, and of treating the illness during its course?

      You can’t isolate people without symptoms; it means isolating everybody. Keeping up with new variants is a treadmill. With declining fuel supplies, fewer and fewer will be able to be vaccinated.

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

      What more can one say?

    • Xabier says:

      Mr Brilliant represents the Senility of Science, and is very far from living up to his name.

      That or he has, quite simply, been paid to utter this tripe.

      Personally, I rate the likelihood of Putin being under the bed armed with battlefield nerve agents and disinformation bombs higher than these terrifying variants – so I always check before turning in.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Or the CEP has been explained to him … and like all the leaders who were told… he’s in agreement with the plan and has agreed to help executive it?

        Hard to imagine all these top scientists doing this for money…

        • Xabier says:

          I’ve generally found academics to be somewhat greedy, feeling left out of the financial scams which they they look upon with envy, and they certainly love power.

          Maybe he is in on the Plan, or part of it? I imagine that many could also be enticed by telling them it’s ‘all for the planet’, without needing any financial incentive – except an understanding that they will never lack for research grants.

          How low will these people go? Right down on their miserable bellies.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            My Great Barrington contact mentioned that there are many professors at his university that ‘were pleased with Covid because FINALLY there was now a catalyst to force us to go green’

            So that cannot be ruled out as the motivator here… it’s best not to underestimate the stooopidity of highly education ‘intelligent’ humans!!!

            • Kowalainen says:

              Let me guess; surely these so called ‘intellectuals’ lead the charge towards sustainability by adapting to a life with a much smaller footprint? No?

              Of course the true die hard intelligentsia lead by example? Yes?

              Oh, right. I’m being a fool again, am I not?

              They expect everybody else to live frugal lives, while they of course are so special and deserve to flubber about as walruses in BAU.

              How silly of me. DOH!


    • Xabier says:

      And once again we see the false equivalence being suggested between Covid and other diseases, for which earlier vaccines were devised.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Dr. Mike Yeadon strongly disagrees with His Brilliance on this point. We have no need to worry about the variants at all. He makes a lot of sense. So let’s cut through the fog and not let ourselves get blinded by too much sciency-sounding jargon. It seems that Larry Brilliant is dazzled by his own Brilliance.

      SARS-CoV-2 is a large virus with approximately 30,000 RNA bases (10,000 amino acids). Currently, the greatest difference between any ‘mutant variant’ and the original Wuhan sequence is limited to 26 nucleotide mutations. The genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in circulation on different continents is fairly uniform. We know that the mutation rate in SARS-CoV-2 is slower than other RNA viruses because it benefits from a proofreading enzyme which limits potentially lethal copying errors. To date, these mutations have caused changes in less than 0.3% of the entire virus sequence. All variants are therefore currently 99.7% similar to the original Wuhan viral sequence.

      To date, no robust scientific evidence proves that any of the variants identified are more transmissible or deadly than the original. By definition, variants are clinically identical. Once there is a clinical difference then a new ‘strain’ of virus has emerged. Prior knowledge of viral mutation shows they usually evolve to become less deadly and more transmissible. This optimises their chance of spreading, as dead hosts tend not to spread viruses, and very ill hosts have reduced mobility and thus limit contact with others.


      • Fast Eddy says:

        Although it appears we are being prepped for Devil Covid … and that lockdowns + leaky vaccines might create result in Devil Covid (as leaky vaccines caused the Marek’s super virus)….

        There is also the question — why not engineer death directly into the vaccine itself… kind of like a corporate poison pill?

        But then there is the issue of vaccinating all 8B people … logistically difficult particularly in the 3rd world countries…

        And why multiple shots? And how do you engineer the lethal shot to poison everyone at the same time given the shots are being given over a wide time frame. If you want to execute a CEP don’t you need it to happen all at once? You cannot have the UK experiencing die off when here in NZ we aren’t getting our lethal injections till July…. we get uncontrolled collapse if the UK goes down…

        I am leaning towards the Devil Covid scenario… you do not have to vaccinate everyone … the more the merrier though so the different strains have plenty of hosts for their breeding orgies… and once you Hit the Jackpot (Devil’s Covid)…. that will just rip through the planet rapidly and infect everyone…

        The PR Team then keeps a lid on things with UBI… absolutely Hysterical Headlines (Stay in Your Homes! Devil Covid is Raging! Anyone Coming Out Will Be Shot on Site!… Stay in Your Homes…)

        You die of Devil Covid or you starve….

        Or .. because we are looking at the tip of the iceberg… perhaps there is a different plan that we cannot see (or even guess at)… the survivors all get on SpaceX ships and fly off to Utopia and drive EVs charged by solar panels and live happily ever after.

        There also the Rapture option….

        • There are multiple companies working at this. They want to make money on this. They will do as as good a job as they can. They will not be intentionally killing people off.

          I don’t think that there ever has been a very good plan behind what is happening.

          I expect that the powers that be are making a lot of wrong assumptions. A couple of weeks back, someone posted a long article by Ron Unz, giving his view of what happened. It sounds to me like the wrong assumptions that the powers that be might make:


          (1) Rogue elements within our large national security apparatus probably affiliated with the Deep State Neocons decided to inflict severe damage upon the huge Chinese economy using biowarfare. The plan was to infect the key transport hub of Wuhan with Covid-19 so that the disease would invisibly spread throughout the entire country during the annual Lunar New Year travels, and they used the cover of the Wuhan International Military Games to slip a couple of operatives into the city to release the virus. My guess is that only a relatively small number of individuals were involved in this plot.

          (2) The biological agent they released was designed primarily as an anti-economy rather than an anti-personnel weapon. Although Covid-19 has rather low fatality rates, it is extremely contagious, has a long pre-symptomatic infectious period, and can even spread by asymptomatic carriers, making it ideally suited for that purpose. Thus, once it established itself throughout most of China, it would be extremely difficult to eradicate and the resulting efforts to control it would inflict enormous damage upon China’s economy and society.

          (3) As a secondary operation, they decided to target Iran’s political elites, possibly deploying a somewhat more deadly variant of the virus. Since political elites generally tend to be elderly, they would anyway suffer far greater fatalities.

          (4) The deadly SARS and MERS outbreaks in East Asia and the Near East had never significantly spread back to America (or Europe), so the plotters wrongly assumed that the same would be the case with Covid-19. Anyway, since international organizations always ranked the US and Europe as having the best and most effective public health systems for combating any disease epidemic, they believed that any possible blowback damage would be very minor.

          (5) Only a small number of individuals were directly involved in this plot, and soon after the disease was successfully released in Wuhan, they decided to further safeguard America’s own interests by alerting the appropriate units with the Defense Intelligence Agency, probably by fabricating some sort of supposed “intelligence leak.” Basically, they arranged for the DIA to hear that Wuhan was apparently suffering a “cataclysmic” disease outbreak, thereby leading the DIA to prepare and distribute a secret report warning our own forces and allies to take appropriate precautions.

          (6) Unfortunately for these plans, the Chinese government reacted with astonishing determination and effectiveness, and soon stamped out the disease. Meanwhile, the lackadaisical and incompetent American government largely ignored the problem, only reacting after the massive outbreak in Northern Italy had gotten media attention. Since the CDC had botched production of a testing kit, we had no means of recognizing that the disease was already spreading in our country, and the result was massive damage to America’s economy and society. In effect, America suffered exactly the fate that had originally been intended for its Chinese rival.
          – – – – –
          So now, the big effort is on vaccines. People working on this didn’t think about what a mess that they would cause for overweight and elderly Americans and Europeans.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Oh… so we have not peaked on oil and run up against the limits to growth and we are not having our last gasp before we sink below the surface?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        This is one of the few things worth watching … and yet it was cancelled…


        Perhaps it was only ever meant to run for one season … to prep us… for the Rapture 🙂

  32. Interesting reading on the immune escape mutations… with helpful visuals.

  33. MM says:

    The Leverager.

    In the repo msrket crisis we see that banks are swapping “assets” against US$.
    From what I see there seems to exist some sort of great “leverager”.
    When the system moment of “mark to market” will appear, the “great Leverager” will own all the “assets”.

    In 2030 you will own nothing but you will be happy!

    • MM says:

      Get your GNE now! One is at 191 US$.
      Just buy ONE and hold.
      The hold option must be asstisted with a very high limit (1 Bln) for sale because then the share ncan not be borrowed or hypotheticated.

      This is an option of realising the “Mark to market” moment.

    • There will be a lot of bonds that can never be repaid. Ultimately, the market value on these logically should be $0. Owning all of these will not necessarily be very helpful.

  34. What is the truth about HIV/AIDS?, Dr Robert Willner Injects HIV into himself on TV( Dec. 7th 1994)

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      he died April 15, 1995.

      that experiment didn’t last long.

      • Interesting!

      • Tim Groves says:

        He died of a heart attack, apparently.

        HIV remains innocent until proven guilty.

        He calls out Fauci as a criminal in the seventh minute. Calls them a mafia. Sticks up for Peter Duesberg and Kary Mullis.

        Great video. Very educational. There was no HIV-caused AIDS epidemic. The causes of AIDS are malnutrition in Africa, radiation, and drugs headed by AZT and other chemotherapy drugs in the West.

        • Yes, this is the basis for a video that may have been posted here sometime in the past:

          • vbaker says:

            Unbelievable. I wrote a comprehensive post in the last couple days about AIDS, ACT-UP and how they unwittingly promoted pharma, or were captured like all activist groups are now. Cory Morningstar talks about this.

            Parallels galore; Regan signed the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) of 1986, which protected vaccine makers. Fauci is right there… right from the start. Big pharma won, people lost, and many doctors and scientists were on the wrong side of the lie. These people and medicine have suffered the most for it. It’s just insane that somehow this story never gets airplay. I mean only 4000 views for this video?!

            Here is what I believe Ive determined: This historical event with ostensibly the same actors as to day, seems to be enough to compel people to look past their confirmation bias. I spent hours putting together an argument on paper which I never share to more than just a few friends, and suddenly this video shows up an hour after I share the first draft.

            *** This story makes people question getting a vaccine if they were planning on getting one ***

            • These kind of videos keep getting taken down, and copies put up later. It’s impossible to tell how many views this piece has actually had.

              Perhaps you could share your presentation with us when it is done?

  35. Yoshua says:


    The price doesn’t move that smoothly. The XRP still had to hit that 10 millionth fraction of a dollar.

    These guys are precis.

    Anyway…Dr Horace Drew has calculated that the Reset will happen June 4th 2021 according to Mr Pool’s prediction. Let’s see if anything happens.

    • MM says:

      There does not exist a thing called a prediction.

      It defies free will.

      • MM says:

        Well, we can talk about probabilities.
        All of them are equal in rights.
        Even if there exists a current probability at my CST Time, it will be completely different in not much less than 1 or 10 minutes.
        It makes no difference.

        The world is evolving as it must. As Gail says: strange things happen.
        We are only spectators.
        Things happen.

        A prediction is witchcraft as it’s best.

        The only true value comes from a predicament.
        Unfortunately that also is uncertain as all the rest.

        But then, what predicament should “we” choose ?

      • David says:

        There does not exist a thing called free will.

        • Kowalainen says:

          It is not a “thing”, it is a rather ill defined concept of determinism.

          Fundamentally the universe is non deterministic (as shown by experiment), and that means everything in it is subject to that.

          Since your brain is part of the universe it operates at a atomic and molecular quantum level non deterministically. Only at a sufficiently large scale it approaches determinism due to the effect of large numbers of subtle causes and necessary coherence (otherwise unbound chaos)

          The universe is a non-local approximate deterministic entity. Whatever it’s origins or eventual beginnings and endings is of no importance. Either we accept it as such or we have no further basis of reasoning.

          It seems like the “simulation” theory of the universe is gaining momentum. To that which I would like to know what that which is that “simulates”. How about this:

          Existence isn’t mandated upon a logical chain of origins and events. Existence is perfectly fine without ultimate causes.

          Accept the fact that some shit lacks causes, it simply just is.

          It is this despicable “will to power” that drives these obnoxious concepts of what is free will and our “origins”. So what? It is what it is. Let’s be curious in how it works and unconditionally observe, discover what we can do with it – without the nauseating perpetual humanoid chauvinisms.

          Wouldn’t that be awesome? No?

          K, thx.


    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I predict that the Reset will NOT happen June 4th 2021.

      my chances of being correct are 99.589%.

      • Sam says:

        Are you sure you are not a millennial!??!?😂
        You are pretty confident people can keep driving over the rotten bridge!
        Maybe better to be a Polly Anna anyway! Wish I could be I have been following Gail since the oil drum days!

        • Kut says:

          I predict bau tonight baby. Collapse in 2 years.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            K-u-r-t, did you forget how to spell your name?

            your prediction has come true!


            2 years?

            sounds good to me, baby!

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:



          I often read The Oil Drum back in the day.

          almost 20 years later, oh look, we’re still here amidst QBAU in IC.


          • Sam says:

            Unfortunately it has started already. Just because it’s not in your backyard doesn’t mean it’s not here.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              I agree.

              good thing we live in the Core and not in the collapsing smaller weaker countries.

              did you notice that Q1 is in the books?

              it was a good quarter.

              now Q2 bring it on.

            • Eudora says:

              Yup Americans have figured it out; strongest economy in the world! They will pull the other economies out. Americans will all be millionaires soon by the end of the summer.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              no, just that Americans should do about as well as most everyone else living in the Core.

              I hope you live in a solidly core country and not too close to the edge.

  36. Argentina’s president tests positive for COVID-19

    Alberto Fernandez, who received the Russian Sputnik V coronavirus jab earlier this year, says he is in ‘good spirits’.

    The president, who turned 62 on Friday, received a jab of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine in January.

    “Although I would have liked to end my birthday without this news, I am also in good spirits,” said Fernandez, who is in isolation as a precaution.

    “We must be very vigilant. I ask everyone to take care of themselves by following the current recommendations. It is evident the pandemic did not pass and we must continue to take care of ourselves,” Fernandez also said on Twitter.

    Argentina was the third country in the world to approve the Sputnik V jabs – after Russia and Belarus – and it began administering doses in late December.

    The Gamaleya Institute, which developed the Russian vaccine, tweeted to Fernandez, saying that Sputnik V is 91.6 percent effective against infection and 100 percent effective against severe coronavirus cases.

    “If the infection is indeed confirmed and occurs, the vaccination ensures quick recovery without severe symptoms. We wish you a quick recovery!” the institute said.

    Argentina, which has recorded at least 2.3 million COVID-19 cases and more than 56,000 coronavirus-related deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data, was roiled by a vaccine scandal this year.

    Former Health Minister Gines Gonzalez Garcia resigned in February after reports emerged that people were using their connections to jump the vaccination queue. Many Argentinians took to the streets in protest over what was dubbed the VIP vaccine scandal.

  37. Biden Asking For Open Door to Search and Seizure of ANYTHING In your Home

    Democrats and the Biden administration would like to seize Americans’ firearms, apparently by any means necessary. It remains to be seen if the U.S. Supreme Court will collaborate with them.

    On March 24, the U.S. Supreme Court began hearing arguments in Caniglia v. Strom. The case arises from a 2015 incident in Cranston, Rhode Island, where police were summoned to do a “wellness check” on Edward Caniglia after his wife reported that he might be suicidal. While Caniglia was arguing with her, he put an unloaded gun on the table and told her to “shoot me now and get it over with.” She responded by calling a non-emergency number, and the police arrived in short order. While at the scene, the police disagreed about whether Mr. Caniglia was acting “normal” or “agitated,” but they convinced him to take an ambulance to the local hospital for evaluation. The police did not go with him.

    While he was en route, his wife told the police he kept two handguns in the house. Without first obtaining a warrant, police conducted a search of the house — after obtaining Mrs. Caniglia’s permission by lying and saying her husband consented to the search. They found two guns and seized them. Mr. Caniglia sued, asserting police had violated his Fourth Amendment rights as well as his Second Amendment right to own firearms for self-protection.

    The First Circuit Court of Appeals sided with police, citing the “community care taking doctrine” that has already been recognized as an exception to the Fourth Amendment by the United States Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in Cady v. Dombrowski. In that case, the Court held that police officers did not violate the Fourth Amendment when they searched the trunk of a car that had been towed following an accident.The Court acknowledged that police cannot search private property without consent or a warrant, “except in certain carefully defined classes of cases.” Yet it further noted that “there is a constitutional difference between houses and cars.”

    A host of cases used that ruling to establish the doctrine of “community caretaking,” which Cady had defined as activities “totally divorced from the detection, investigation, or acquisition of evidence relating to the violation of a criminal statute.” In short, if a police officer might reasonably decide a warrantless search could prevent the community from being endangered, that search was constitutional.

    That kind of search was related to vehicles. Caniglia v. Strom is about whether or not it can be extended to homes.

  38. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic upheaval sparked a hunger crisis in the US. Some 41.4 million people were receiving food stamps in November, up from 36.9 million in February, before the pandemic began, according to the most recent data from the US Department of Agriculture.

    Americans are also flooding food pantries in order to feed themselves and their families. Food banks are serving 55% more customers now than before the pandemic and expect to distribute even more meals this year than in 2020, according to Feeding America, the nation’s largest domestic hunger-relief organization.

    Some 22.8 million, or 10.7%, of adults lived in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the past week, according to the latest Household Pulse Survey from the US Census Bureau, which was conducted over the first two weeks of March. The number has roughly returned to the level it was at in early October, after spiking just before Congress passed a $900 billion relief package at the end of the year.

    That December deal included a 15% enhancement to food stamp benefits for all households through June, along with a $600 stimulus check, a $300 weekly federal boost to unemployment benefits and an extension of two key pandemic unemployment programs.

    From CNN…

  39. Yoshua says:


    So which banks gave money to Archegos Capital?

  40. The Treasury Begins Raiding Homes & Crypto Businesses For Using Too Much Bitcoin

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Thank you for the Video clip. Not surprised by the stonewalling and ignoring the individual request for the copy of the warrant. for that matter any questions by the person asking was just ignored. Seems laws can be changed by a stroke of a pen by “Authorities” and this is not the first time the Government will turn on law abiding citizens.
      I subscribe to the Silver Report Uncut and one of the best channels, along with Money GPS

      • Xabier says:

        A medieval legal maxim ran thus :

        ‘The law has a nose of wax, and the King may bend it whichever way pleases him.’

        Welcome to Feudal America!

      • Terry McNeil says:

        It about time – these currencies are being used by criminal elements to effect their activities; usurp sovereign currency status, and avoid possibly trillions in income, sales, excise and other taxes. Shutting down crypto currencies may even go along way to financing the next few trillions needed by Biden et al for infrastructure etc.

        More importantly it can make it harder to finance drugs, guns and other illegal businesses that benefit from this token sham that has utterly no intrinsic value or substantive legal claim on a legitimate national economy’s collective agents, activities, goods, services and resources..

        Its key premise is similar to those infamous Dutch tulip bulbs bubble – the bigger fool theory .

        As Shakespeare once remarked , “Snakeoil by any other name would smell as sweet.”

    • Strange! Is there a law against using Bitcoin in the US? I have never had a desire to use it, so I never looked into it.

      • There isn’t a law against it, but gov.s don’t like it because they can’t track economic events or collect transaction taxes. I think in the US, it’s currently viewed as a commodity, and if you were to sell Bitcoin that had appreciated, you would be obliged to report that as a taxable event.

        I was surprised when I moved to Italy and found out that yard sales are illegal there. The state can’t collect their 20+% in sales tax, is the rationale.

        • Interesting!

        • Azure Kingfisher says:

          “Under U.S. tax law, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are classified as property and subject to capital gains taxes. But you only owe taxes when those gains are realized.

          “Just because your Coinbase portfolio drastically grew in value last year doesn’t mean that you’ll be writing out a check to Uncle Sam come April. Similar to trading stocks, you only need to list gains you earn from bitcoin as income when you decide to sell.

          “If you never sell your bitcoin, you never owe cash,” Ben Weiss, COO of CoinFlip, the largest Bitcoin ATM provider in the country, tells CNBC Make It. “Bitcoin is treated like if you bought and sold a stock.”


          The tax man always wants a piece of the action.

  41. Kowalainen says:

    Wow, this just in from our AI overlords (google news).

    “Cycling is ten times more important than electric cars for reaching net-zero cities”

    Wow, that must have been a hard nut to crack.
    Such lucid minds, doge much impress.

    • I am not even certain that bicycles are sustainable because bicycles require a whole system to go with them.

      If a person is talking about electric bicycles, the system needs to be much larger than with pedal-yourself kinds.

      For any kind of bicycle, a person needs an international trade system and a fossil fuel system to make the steel and the tires. The site Treadbikely discusses how bicycle tires are made (October 2018)

      “Rubber” Used in Bicycle Tires

      When it comes to what bicycle tires are made of, there are four main types of rubber used.

      The tread and sidewalls are typically constructed from natural rubber, which is derived from the bark of the Hevea Brasiliensis tree. Synthetic rubber versions, such as butyl rubber and halogenated butyl rubber, are usually extracted from crude oil and used in the tire’s casing.

      Carbon black helps to reinforce and strengthen modern bike tires, as well as improve their abrasion resistance, maximize traction, and provide their dark color. In years past, sulfur provided many of these same benefits.

      Silica (silicon dioxide), on the other hand, determines traits like flexibility and wet weather performance.

      Bicycle tires aren’t made from just one type of carbon black or silica, though. Different versions are used depending on the section of the tire being constructed, along with the manufacturer’s specific performance requirements. . .

      Once mixing is complete [at temperatures as high as 338 degrees F (170 degrees C)], the doughy rubber exits the machine through a discharge hatch at the bottom and is sheeted out like a pastry into a thick, continuous layer by powerful rollers.

      At this point, Maxxis tells us it’s referred to as a ‘slap.’

      Slap slated for sidewalls is covered with plastic sheeting and rolled further. Tread slap (the part that comes into direct contact with the ground) is cut into long, narrow strips.

      These strips are then fed into an extruder and heated again. Once the rubber becomes doughy, a revolving screw applies shear force and sends it through a die, forming a profile that’s thicker in the center and thinner on the sides. Together, this helps improve resistance to wear.

      To cool and set its shape, tread rubber is subsequently submerged in water. It’s also dipped in an anti-tack compound like metallic stearate or stearic acid, powdered mica, talc, or different water-based formulas, to prevent sticking. Then, it’s wound onto spools with a fabric separator between each layer to further prevent unwanted adhesion.

      Creation of Fabric Mesh Used in Tires

      First, a third-party manufacturer twists nylon textile yarn together, treats it with chemicals that promote bonding with rubber, and forms it into a grid pattern.

      When the time comes, webbing is passed through very hot rollers at a 45-degree angle. This permanently bonds it with the tire’s casing rubber through a process known as calendering. This is what’s ultimately responsible for defining the tire’s shape and providing it with a great deal of support.

      Bead Creation and Insertion

      While everything above is happening [far more than I have quoted], a specialized wrapping machine takes steel or aramid (Kevlar) fibers, twists them together, and forms them into rings. These rings, formally known as the tire’s beads, are then covered with a thin layer of protective rubber.

      With the casing already wound around a metal spool, Schwalbe tells us that a specially trained employee inserts beads on each side by hand. Once inflated, the strength they provide will help hold the tire onto the rim after it’s inflated with air.

      Next, a mechanical apparatus simultaneously folds the casing’s rubber over both beads. If additional puncture protection is needed, a Kevlar strip is forced into the rubber as well.

      Of course, a simpler process could theoretically be used, but it still would need a huge number of different inputs from around the world and high temperatures to form the tires. The frame also has challenges to be made.

      If you are going use the bicycles, you likely need roads as well. Building and maintaining these roads is a problem, unless a fossil fuel system is functioning well.

      If electric bicycles are added to the mix, you somehow need to make the batteries, using materials from around the world. You also need a source of electricity. If grid electricity is used, a whole new layer of complexity is added, with the need for a transmission system and a need to fight fires caused by this system.

      Fires caused by electric power lines are especially a problem if hydroelectric, wind, or solar electricity is used because these sources tend to be far from users. The size of installations are often smaller that fossil fuel generating plants, further adding to the need for transmission lines that need to be maintained. Special steps, such as putting lines underground, can be used to prevent fires, but these are costly and require fossil fuel energy.

      If bicycles grew on trees, there would be no problem.

      • Kowalainen says:


        Assume a 1:10 ratio of finished product weight to oil input. Then my eMTB of about 23kg will require an equivalent of three barrels of oil to manufacture. Do the calculations of how many eBikes that can be produced annually when the daily total oil production is 100.000.000 barrels.

        An eMTB can traverse terrain that barely any vehicle can cross. The need for paved roads is totally redundant. Gravel roads is shunned by MTB:ers. We are talking about full bore moss, stones, rocks, swamps and a tree density where the handlebars barely can fit in between.

        It is ridiculous to think that rail and bicycles isn’t a viable alternative to the frivolous consumerism. Which basically just is burning oil for lazy ass conformism and ultimately null and void.

        As a small demonstration what an avid motorcyclist/mtb:kiddo can do on a bike.


        Mm, yeah, “we” absolutely need cars and frivolous consumerism to keep the shebang rolling.

        How about no, and yes to vaxxing useless eaters.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Don’t even start on how fashion vanity is coming to an end – like a dream in the day.

      • James Speaks says:

        True. Electric bicycles require a system to manufacture and maintain, and that system will crumble. However, there will be a time, could be many years if one plans ahead, where electric cargo bikes are superior to all other means of transportation, and during this time, I think population will decrease significantly and electric bikes would be a temporary advantage. Better temporary than none.

        Horses would be better.

        • Nope.avii says:

          Gail, you have the patience of a saint. You have clearly explained how bicycles require a global system of inudstrialization to be made and the idealists are here are scoffing at reality and move the goalposts so this is a cultural or issue.

          “It is ridiculous to think that rail and bicycles isn’t a viable alternative to the frivolous consumerism. Which basically just is burning oil for lazy ass conformism ”
          Kowalainen, your last sentence sounds very african american. If you are aa, you know this is one of the groups that will give up consumerism and conformism. They want to integrate themselves more and more into industrial civilization. They see the nice things white, and other people have and want the same.

          P.S. Gail criticism of bicycles is not as a an alternative to consumerism and conformity, but about an alternative to modern transportation. Bicycles are a product of modern transportation and cannot exist with Modern transportation= =industrialization= fossil fuels.

          It is often high-income income people who use bicylces extensively as a form of personal transportation in addition to owning a internal combustion car and consuming other products that require lots of energy. Their false modesty is really class signaling, like adopting a vegan diet when one lives a very sedentary lifestyle–even by the standards of other highly sedentary people.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Horses – all they need is grass and water and they ‘make’ themselves. Astonishing.

          • Kowalainen says:

            According to my dad it is a bit more involved than that to take care of livestock and biological transport without access to IC. We are talking about 50”s Lapland, no electricity, fuck all besides snow, vodka and a few horses and cows.

            Imagine 8B entitled princesses of IC with horses and cattle and no IC in sight.

            How absurd the idea is.

            It is as absurd as fantasizing about robbing “the rich” expecting Ghawar to magically top up, conveniently forgetting about belonging to “rich” themselves.

            Ah, the cognitive dissonance. Is that what IC do to people? The myopia of the ordinary goes full delusion.


            • James Speaks says:

              We had horses when I was a child. I am aware of the work involved. My point that is it will be necessary.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Yes, my point being, it’s “easy” to have horses in IC.

              It is a different matter without IC.

              Then it is not as if you own a horse. It is more a case of a horse owning you.

              I call it the myopia of the ordinary. You cannot fathom a life without IC because you are that used to it. It is a convenient dream that modern era Homo sapiens can switch IC for subsistence farming or a pastoralist life once oil runs out or SHTF.

              From this delusion springs the crazy of continuing BAU to the bitter end and then monkey-branch to a cuddly subsistence farm. It is not how shit works. Do yourself a favor and forget about it.

              If you cannot fathom flipping your car and everyday frivolous opulence and merely consuming plants, while having full access to tap water and electricity.

              Give it a shot for a month or two. See how that works out for you. If that still is acceptable, cut the water and WC. After that, electricity and heating/AC.

              Remember that you still got supermarket food without much physical labor and no livestock to take care of.

              Nah, forget about continuing down that path. It will just be miserable.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            I boarded horses for years.
            It is way more complicated than that.
            Llamas? Even stranger.

          • They eat tons of hay, and that requires a lot of land, or mechanized harvest to bring it in.

            While horses are the only sustainable response for a reduced future, they are probably far less efficient per transport mile than the current paradigm.. which is why the current paradigm exists.. because it was able to access greater amounts of expendable energy.

            When I read this,
            “It is often high-income income people who use bicycles extensively as a form of personal transportation in addition to owning a internal combustion car”..

            I thought of our new Transportation Sec’y., Mayor Pete:
            (random link)

            • Kowalainen says:

              Obviously it wasn’t to access more energy, but to burn it all up ASAP. Cant beat the time and energy efficiency of bicycles and trains.

              Which in fairness is completely a-ok when a species is hell bent on opposing evolution, with some amateur hour eugenics programs, and so happens to find a cheap non renewable resource.

              Like cockroaches finding that jar of cookies on the floor. They for sure won’t do much evolution anymore. Being virtually the same for eons time, and then some. It will just be more of them. For a little while.

              Let them finish off those oil fields and be done with it once and for all. Then they can go back to the usual low-econ game of ridiculous turf wars, royalty, hoarding shiny metal, engage in bestiality, pomp and regalia that they seem keen on. As father, as son.

              It’s how I’d reason. Stuff their cookie holes full and watch them explode into irrelevance and ultimately backpedal up into the trees.

              Cruel? Sinister? Perhaps. I wish it was different. I’m not the one calling the shots. It is what it is.

              Mind numbingly boring tragicomedy is what it is.

      • Xabier says:

        In other words, if supply-chains and sophisticated manufacturing etc are taken into account, bikes are as much a product of a complex economy as an automobile – or a pencil.

        Much more sensible for moving one fat behind around in an urban setting ,though.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Let’s not forget the already existing billions of bicycles. Remember, the first bikes didn’t have tyres.

          Cooking up some rubber from old car tires and tefloning/paraffinating the chain properly and you’ll be set for lifetime on the same bicycle. How do these things even wear out if cared for and kept indoors?

          I’ve been on a bike for my entire life, how many have I wore out so far? Zero. For sure I have trashed the drive train of a few bikes due to laziness. But these days, been blowing through one chain in about 4 years, due to incompetence.

          That’s about 100g of material, 300g of oil equivalent in four years. You can’t beat that with a horse. No way. Just forging the shoes and idle power consumption of horses. Just forget about it.

          8B people with at least one horse… Mmh, yeah right. I’m sure entitled rapacious princesses of IC knows how to take care of a goddamn horse, when they barely are perceptive enough to form a somewhat coherent thought.

          “Hey brahs (Yada-Yada of cloner herd team), let’s rob the “rich” (while being rich, ah the irony).”

          “The magic abiotic oil will materialize from the belly of earth once we rid ourselves of our genetic origins”

          “Damn right, how about that Karl Marx thingy?”

          “Yay communism FTW!”

          I can’t wait for the purge.


          • Kind of strange how people can’t get it, obviously bikes need some form – level of functioning IC, that’s never been disputed, but we are discussing scales here..

            For napkin type evaluation example: while e-SUV consumes 200+ Wh per km at 100+ km/h speed, the e-bike sips ~20Wh at 30km/h but it could be taken into bus, tram, subway, regional or fast train.. The former weights 2tons, the latter 30kg, scale it similarly for needed resources and manuf..

            • We have whole systems that we need to keep operating. We have refineries that refine oil and pipelines that transport it. Our problem now is that oil and other energy prices are not high enough. Bicycles made with less oil don’t necessarily help the problem, unless we can make truly an amazing number of bicycles, including for people who could not afford bicycles before. Except, I would think that these bicycles would need to be more expensive, to accommodate the higher oil price that is really needed to keep the system working correctly.

              I don’t think that there is a scaling down method that keeps industrial civilization operating. Globalization fails, for one thing.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Say 10x the price of bicycles to 20k USD a pop for a mid-range, non-assisted, carbon fiber one. Low-end quality bikes down to 5k.

              Then it’s about the same price as the typical second hand Asian/EU econobox car. The usual “compete with the joneses” SUV of the US is obviously more expensive than that without accounting for the fuel, insurance and upkeep.

              It all seems like a pretty straight forward calculation to me. Yup, let’s get those rapacious primates on bicycles and plant based diets and watch them squirm. Oh the “agony”. How I would glee.

              What is the best form of schadenfreude? – The one that hurts while being good for ya’.


          • Gail, it’s not exactly / merely about scaling down, but rather doing things differently (“theoretically” as the urge to spent it unwisely was likely hardwired to us as species). Most likely given the past dependency how we get here it’s too late for the shift at this point, that’s what I always acknowledged. Perhaps only some outlier type of society around the IC realm could still partly switch into this direction.

            In terms of the refineries, oil, and natgas there is simply way too many other more beneficial uses (e.g. greenhouse and cover crop material) than just to burn it in nonsense commuter traffic carz or as house heating inefficiently.

            Simply, we exchanged potential of 500,000 or perhaps even xy million yrs of greenhouse production for few decades of leaky house heating, electricity generation (instead of other methods), and “fertilizers” crippling soils, speaking of the natgas, all in all that was pretty insane arrangement..

        • I’ve stocked up on pencils.
          I also bought a number of fountain pens.
          God knows what we’ll be writing.
          The kids can’t even read handwriting.
          So it goes.

          • I hope you have learned how to make paper as well.

            • I stocked up on paper, too. I’ve made paper before, but it came out pretty lumpy.

              I also have a large real slate blackboard, a school slate, and and a box of soapstone pencils. We’ll be able to tally gin rummy points in style.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Classy, but not too much ‘gin’ I hope, or you will not be able to tally anything. No wonder the paper came out lumpy. : )

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And time…

              After you finish washing clothes by hand… chopping and splitting trees and dragging the wood back to the house (from increasing distances…) …. weeding the garden … hauling buckets of water to irrigate the garden during dry periods… dealing with the pests in the garden… canning all the food from the garden…. fighting off hordes of starving violent people (you’ll have to guard that precious garden 24 hours per day because the hordes will no doubt choose the cover of dark if you try to shoot them during the day)…

              Once all that is done you can play games and draw on your handmade paper and sing (koombaya) and relax hahaha… sounds awesome!

              Doomie Preppers refuse to trial their Plan… they will not turn off the power for a few days and use no petrol because that would blow up their Delusion.

              Fortunately the Elders have war gamed this and they have concluded that it is futile … and in fact will only get you killed and eaten by bad guys … so they are helping you Doomies out by putting you to death along with the rest of us.

              Don’t get upset… it’s for the better. It really is.

      • MM says:

        Well, we come in this world naked.
        The world knows we will grab what we can get hold of.
        Still it has emerged “us”…

        The question is: what is enough ?

        A Cave with a bear skin cover?
        A House with oil heating in evey room?
        A cell phone to phone or a smart phone?
        A House with top insulation and 100 W heatig requirement?

        There is progress but we are not in controll of it.
        And that imho is the best option!
        You decide. That holds true for everything, sorry to tell you.


        Ther are choices and YOU make them.

        In the past at least it has been like that.

        The new Normal will present choices for you but it will come with some sort of nudging.

        We have all come to the same conclucions.
        Klausi and Billy and you and me.
        The question is :

        What makes the difference.
        I accept a bowl of rice a day voluntarily or someone asking me to enjoy to accept this bowl.

        Actually JMG speaks of rice and beans…

        It all boils doen on this:
        I could reduce my consumption, ok.
        You could tell me to reduce my consumtion, not ok.

        Actually I am out in the Pub for a pint of free will…

        • Slow Paul says:

          There is no such thing as free will. Whatever you choose is a result of a myriad of inputs, basically everything you have experienced thus far. The prime mover of these desicions is our desire to survive. This includes also our desire for power so we can enhance our survival prospects, To voluntarily reduce your consumption gives you power. Someone else telling you to do the same reduces your power.

  42. Yoshua says:

    Sorry, the Bitcoin and XRP prices were close to those numbers the day before.

    (1 million * 0.44 / 100) * (1 million * 3.33 / 100) = 4400 * 33300 = 146,520,000

    So, only 1 in 146 million

    So, just smoke and mirrors.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      if one of those 589s got there by rising and one by falling, then they would have had to have crossed.

      which makes the odds 100%.

    • Peak Oil Pete says:

      “Sorry, the Bitcoin and XRP prices were close to those numbers the day before.
      (1 million * 0.44 / 100) * (1 million * 3.33 / 100) = 4400 * 33300 = 146,520,000
      So, only 1 in 146 million
      So, just smoke and mirrors.”

      Happens all the time in stock and commodities trading.
      Just because you say it’s smoke and mirrors doesn’t make it so. 🙂

  43. uajka says:

    Hi. I would like to ask why do you think interest rate will go up? Why not keep them low and pump more money into system? Where is the limit to this strategy?

    • If a country is going to issue bonds, it needs someone to sell these bonds to. Right now, central banks are buying a lot of them (without any real money behind them), but there are limits to how much of these bonds can be “purchased” by central banks.

      As countries around the world issue more and more debt, there aren’t really more purchasers for this debt. It is not that pension funds are buying a lot more government bonds, for example. So countries find that they need to keep raising the interest rates on their debt to find buyers for their bonds, if they actually want to be successful in selling these bonds to the few available purchasers.

      I suppose that governments will have their central banks “buy” more and more of these bonds, (out of thin air), in an attempt to keep interest rates down.

      But something eventually has to fail in this process. The amount of goods and services produced will not be going up worldwide (certainly not very much), because we are reaching fossil fuel extraction limits. At the same time, the amount of funds with which to “purchase” these goods is constantly escalating, thanks to the rapidly escalating quantity of “money” that countries are giving to their citizens and businesses to try to keep the whole system going. Countries are trying to outcompete one another in the printing of “money.”

      Some countries are already finding that too much money printing simply makes the value of their currency fall relative to other currencies. Too many businesses that can never succeed are being propped up, not really adding anything to their economies. Too many workers who are sitting at home, doing nothing, are being supported.

      I expect that at some point, countries will simply stop accepting the currencies of many other countries. New local currencies may be issued and bilateral trade agreements may become common.

      • Sam says:

        What do you think the limits are in the United Sates? Also is there manipulations going on behind the scenes that we can’t see?

        • We have already been seeing rising interest rates, especially after the last $1.9 billion package. If a stimulus package goes through, I am afraid it will raise the rates further. We are not, now, able to keep the amount the Fed buys high enough. This is part of the reason that Biden is talking about a tax increase to pay for his new stimulus package under consideration.

          • Sam says:

            “This is part of the reason that Biden is talking about a tax increase to pay for his new stimulus package under consideration.”
            Very good point Gail! I sometimes am surprised that they would even be aware of these things but then maybe I under estimate the PTB. High interest rates and falling dollar and hi gas prices will hit the United States very hard. I have heard Mconnell is against the package will they still be able to get it through and that will be 6 months down the road…
            So would you say you are more in the deflationists or inflations camp? Or would you say stagflation?

            • My big concern is the system coming apart. The shelves in stores becoming empty because of broken supply lines. We supposedly have lots of money, but nothing actually to purchase. So my view is really none of your three choices.

              Apart from the system coming apart, I expect a deflationary outcome from arising from debt bubbles collapsing and citizens losing their jobs as a result. There will be many people who cannot afford to buy goods made with commodities. Thus there will be low prices and commodity “gluts.” From that point of view, I am more in the deflation camp.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Hopefully everyone will be dead before it unravels…. that’s the plan at least…

  44. Yoshua says:

    Mr Pool posted his 589 video and the next day Bitcoin hits $58985.27 when XRP hits $0.5898527 at the same moment. The 27 is part of Mr Pool’s user name and his signature.

    The odds for that to happen is 1 million * 1 million * 100 = 1 in 100 Trillion

    I guess this can happen by chance…or someone has the power to manipulate the price of two cryptos.


  45. MG says:

    A Decline In Japanese Hunters Sees Women Taking Up Arms To Protect Farms



    “As younger Japanese tend to be more urbanized than their parents, hunting as a sport is in steep decline in Japan. In 2010 it was estimated that 190,000 people with valid hunting licenses were in Japan (a drop of 2/3 in the last 35 years), and the vast majority of them were issued to senior citizens. As a result, deer and boar populations have been exploding, and causing major damage to agriculture and forest land. The deer are a bigger problem (a smaller local breed known as the sika deer), now numbering over 2.6 million. They have no natural predators left in the wild, with both species of indigenous wolf having gone extinct well over 100 years ago.

    Facing such challenges, local governments have been trying to get more young people interested in hunting, holding sponsored events and such. Some social media campaigns have specifically been targeting female prospective hunters. Kentarō Okamoto’s Sanzoku Diary manga has also been popular enough to cause some interest in hunting. However, with such a high barrier to entry, these efforts are facing an uphill battle.”

    • rufustiresias999 says:

      Japanese had centuries ago a beautiful way of hunting as depicted by Akira Kurosawa :

    • Hunting with bow and arrow was at least somewhat popular when I grew up in Wisconsin. I remember hearing about it, mostly because my father was a general practitioner physician. He would come home and complain about needing to patch up the deer hunters who would accidentally hit each other with arrows.

      I found an article from someone in Pennsylvania about how using archery to hunt for deer has changed over the years.


      Pennsylvania held its first archery deer season in 1951. Only 5,542 people purchased the necessary $2 archery license so they could hunt in the bucks-only season. Those 5,000-plus hunters reported killing 33 bucks, which amounted to far less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the total deer harvest that year.

      Archery hunting slowly grew in popularity. However, it was not until 1957 — when does were first allowed to be shot by bowhunters — that the reported archery deer harvest exceeded 1 percent of the total harvest.

      It is unlikely that many of those archers from the early 1950s wore camouflage clothing. They all hunted with traditional longbows or the newer recurves.

      . . .

      And expand opportunities it [many advances in archery] did. Game Commission statistics from last season show that there are now well over 300,000 licensed archery hunters. Those bowhunters harvested an estimated 118,110 deer, or about 34 percent of the total harvest. Results from the most recent Pennsylvania Game Commission hunter survey show that approximately 61 percent of today’s archery hunters use crossbows all or part of the time.

      I am not surprised that bow hunting is still popular in at least some places in the United States. Judging from my father’s need to patch up hunters wearing the red clothing mandated by law, I cannot imaging that camouflage clothing is a great advance, however.

  46. MG says:

    Despite the covid-19 pandemic, the real estate prices in Slovakia are rising. If we have the income slump, a lot of energy inefficient buildings and the rapidly ageing population, the Japan way is inevitable: the bursting of the debt bubble will send the real estate prices down. Especially, when the people try to trick the more and more demanding energy certification of the buildings and the energy producers are eagerly waiting for higher prices.


    There is a very good article about the housing history and the implications of the new standard in housing, which is the passive house, but unfortunately in Czech:


    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      real estate in the USA also is soaring.

      where I drive, I have seen most houses with signs that say “sale pending” within about one week of the original “for sale” sign.

      but that makes sense, since houses are real assets, and fayke assets like NFTs (which I call crapto) and cryptos are soaring in price also.

      I don’t foresee any downturn in prices in 2021.

      too little time for the momentum to turn before 2022.

      • MG says:

        The advertised prices and the real contract prices are usually different. But when there is a surplus of money due to the fact that money are created everywhere, the prices can really go up.

        We have a lot of fake assets now. And there will be more of them. But in the end, the functionality wins over the purported beauty.

        Let us say that we have more and more “beauty objects” that cost a lot of money, but their value as regards the everyday life is zero or negative.

        • Thanks, that’s a great short hand how to condense it “..functionality wins over (faked) beauty assets..”

          I guess we can summarize at this point that intentional decision had been made several cycles ago in terms of possible return to profound market bottom repricing action deemed as not welcomed, and actually not to be allowed at all costs (very temporary downward swings for kiddies ala Q2 2020).

          Unfortunately, that means repricing to ~real values nexus is impossible, hence the several stages of prolonging and can kicking ahead for decades will (“must” ) at some future threshold turn into a bit different disorderly dynamics, namely full spectrum chaos, incl. chiefly abandonment of said assets, be it through other intervening vectors such as war, migration, enviro calamities etc.

          Indeed, it’s very strange “finish line” rat race logic, yet it seems to rhyme “bigly” in comparison to other major civ shifts / collapses of the past.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Obviously covering the “tracks” as chaos unfolds. Luckily there are no semi eternal large structures that could give hints of past muppet exploits and halfwitted shenanigans.

            Yup, they are _that_ retarded. Most likely de-evolved trash. With endless stretches of ruin and tragedy of the past, if history is anything to go by.

            Repeat after me:




      • Sam says:

        No David I think you are incorrect. You are speaking from an out dated system. The one we are in now is more bubble than we have ever seen. Think of Germany when their stock market crashed. Do you think their housing prices were not collapsing? When fear strikes it will happen very fast and I don’t think there will be any where to hide wealth that’s why they call it a collapse; otherwise it would be a slight downturn. I think we are getting very close to bubbles popping. The Americans are lucky that they have the dollar because they can manipulate it but for how long?
        The momentum can turn on a dime….you sound like you might be to young to remember 2008 but that was a small taste of the fear and no one was buying or building houses back then and the debt load was much much smaller…..

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          I’m in my 60s.

          yes I agree it’s a giant bubble.

          in my opinion, this bubble will only get bigger in 2021, where houses are selling at a higher price and FASTER than ever.

          it’s crayzzy, and it will pop SOON.

          but my opinion of “soon” is a year or two, 2022 or 2023, because I think things happen much slower than most doomers think, not always but usually.

          it’s guessing the future, and it will be what it will be.

          I’m not worried.

          • MM says:

            Bubble popping appears at:
            “Mark to Market”
            If money printing goes on, there is no need to go for marking to msrket.

            I have not figured what that “mark to market” moment should be!!!

            In previous times it was margin calls.
            That does no longer exist. phone your bank for credit extension? well, yeah!

            • As Gail alluded above, the system devolves back into bilateral trade agreements, energy for goods barter, new currency baskets, new trading and defense alliances..

              It’s actually happening already even in the visible plane (at snail pace), look at OPEC+ or Chinese belt road initiative (or newest China-Iran dance), the old rotten structure is being replaced by new framing albeit in itself could be temporary fix at this energy surplus waning stage, leading into further / deeper collapse phase (some places) soon afterwards etc..

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              yes “(at snail pace)” yes.

      • Dennis L. says:

        In my neighborhood there is no pending, goes from for sale to sold in about a week.

        Dennis L.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          I’ve heard that to get the house, often a prospective buyer has to offer more than the asking price.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Berkeley home sells for $1 million over asking price


            It is The Bay, but a good jump.

            • Sam says:

              Sorry David…as soon as I hear someone extoll about housing is here for a long time I think here comes mr. millennial ! they have invested in a house and want to think that the price we keep going up and up!

              As far as working from home…if you can work from home why don’t I just hire someone from Nebraska and pay them less? Or India or better yet just let AI do it….in a deflationary cycle got to cut back somewhere! and that would be the easiest! I am shocked it has not happened yet…
              I remember when we were at the height of the 08 housing boom and it feels just like now and then it crashed 3 months later…although you didn’t have a FED that was in the news every week announcing a new trick…is that worse yes…in my opinion….if gas prices go up just for a few months that will lead to a quick correction to put it mildly….
              We have already seen cracks in the system soon people will realize that the FED is smoke and mirrors.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              “I am shocked it has not happened yet…”

              I’m not.

              so I figure perhaps my grasp of the situation might be closer to reality.

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    Companies are considering compulsory Covid vaccination requirements as a condition of employment.

    “Under the law, an employer can force an employee to get vaccinated, and if they don’t, fire them,” said Rogge Dunn, a Dallas labor and employment attorney.

    Anti-discrimination laws would enable eligible employees to request an exemption from a company-wide coronavirus vaccine mandate.


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