The Afghanistan Fiasco (and Today’s High Level of Conflict) Reflect an Energy Problem

There is a saying, “Everything happens for a reason.” The fiasco in Afghanistan is no exception to this rule. Even though it is not obvious, the United States is up against energy limits. It needed to pull back from Afghanistan to try to have enough energy to continue in its other roles, such as providing benefits for its growing army of retirees, and building infrastructure to mitigate the COVID-19 downturn.

The fundamental problem is that governments can add debt and other indirect promises of resources that create goods and services, but they cannot actually create the low-cost energy, water and mineral resources needed to fulfill those promises.

The way energy limits play out is not at all intuitive. Most people assume that we will run out of oil, leading to a spike in oil prices. We will then transition to renewables. As I see it, this understanding is completely wrong. Limited energy supply first leads to a need for simplification: Stepping back from Afghanistan would be one such type of simplification. It would save energy supplies and reduce the need for greater tax revenue or added debt.

In this post, I will try to explain some pieces of the problem.

[1] Afghanistan was, and continues to be, in some sense, a “handicapped country.”

Everyone knows that the way a country can succeed in the world market is by providing needed goods or services to other economies at low cost. Afghanistan is a landlocked country. It also doesn’t have any big rivers it can use to transport goods out of the country. It isn’t a member of a trade alliance such as the EU to allow smooth transport of goods out of the country. The difficulty of transit into and out of the country adds a layer of costs that tends to make the country uncompetitive in the world market. No matter how much investment any country makes in Afghanistan, this handicap will still persist.

Also, Afghanistan has too high a population relative to its resources. We know that most wars are resource wars. The fact that Afghanistan has been involved in wars for many years hints at this problem. According to UN 2019 estimates, Afghanistan’s population was 7.8 million in 1950, 21.6 million in 2001, and 38.9 million in 2020, which is about five times the 1950 population. Water needs, in particular, tend to escalate as population rises.

[2] The US doesn’t know how to fight a guerrilla war.

The weapons developed by the US are too complex to be used in a guerrilla war. They tend to break down and require replacement parts. Needless to say, these parts are not available in Afghanistan. Even if Afghan soldiers are trained to use these weapons, they may not be available or suitable when needed.

George W. Bush should have known from the outcome of the 20-year Vietnam conflict (1955-1975) that any guerrilla war was likely to have a bad ending. In Afghanistan, the plan was to train Afghan soldiers, thus keeping US citizens out of the battlefield. This strategy kept the Afghan conflict off the front page of US newspapers, but the overall result seems to be similar.

[3] When George W. Bush took office in 2001, he seems to have had access to more funds than he knew what to do with. Starting a war in Afghanistan probably seemed like a good use for these funds. He could perhaps build military bases, and perhaps raise the standard of living of the people there.

The price of oil was especially low in the 1998 to 2001 period. This allowed tax revenue to “go farther” in providing benefits to the economy, allowing a temporary budget surplus. With such a surplus, getting funds appropriated for any purpose would likely have been easy.

Figure 1. US Budget Deficits and Surpluses by Year. Chart by Steve Benen. Source.

Even more importantly, with a fairly young population, the Social Security system had been collecting funds in advance of when they were needed, with the plan of building up the plan’s Trust Fund for use when a bulge in retirements was expected, starting about 2010. Figure 2 shows one chart that roughly illustrates the overfunding and planned use for the funds. Unfortunately, Figure 2 doesn’t treat investment income in the way it is actually collected; it leaves out past investment income and uses discounted cash flow assumptions for the future, so a person cannot readily estimate net contributions to the Trust Fund balance by year from this chart.

Figure 2. Forecast of Social Security surpluses and deficits. Chart by Peter G. Peterson Foundation, based on Social Security Administration, The 2020 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Trust Funds. Source.

Figure 2 indicates that there was considerable overfunding starting in the late 1980s. The thing that actuaries (and others) didn’t consider is the fact that there is a real difference between debt and the physical resources that will be needed when these older people retire. Retirees will need food, water and energy to heat their homes. They will need medicine and long term care institutions. They should also be able to provide their share of the upkeep of roads and electricity transmission networks.

Debt is a promise of future funds to purchase goods and services, but it doesn’t make the resources required to create these goods and services materialize out of “thin air.” To keep these promises, oil needs to be extracted, refined, and delivered to farmers. There needs to be enough fresh water available to irrigate adequate farmland to produce the required food. There need to be supply lines that are working to deliver the required food. There need to be enough young people who are willing to work on farms and in care centers for the aged. The wages for these young workers need to be high enough so that they too can have food, shelter and other things that we consider necessities.

When the extra Social Security funds were collected, the officials who collected them figured out that as a practical matter, there was little that they could do with them besides spend them at the time they were collected. They couldn’t set up warehouses with food, clothing, building materials and energy resources to keep on hand for 30 or 40 years. If they invested the money in the stock market, the money would simply cause a bubble in stock prices. If they built new factories or nursing homes, they would be unfairly competing with existing businesses.

I am not sure that there is any good record of how these extra funds were spent. My understanding is that they provided a very large slush fund that allowed expanded military activities among other things. From an accounting point of view, non-marketable government debt was substituted for the funds that were spent. Thus, when an actuary looks at the Trust Fund, it is fully funded. It is just that it is funded with more US government debt.

The catch is that the non-marketable US government debt doesn’t actually correspond to any resources. Any food used in 2022 (or 2050) will need to be grown in that year, using resources available in that year. Most clothing used in a given year will need to be produced with resources available at that time. Putting together a model that assumes business as usual forever tends to give a rosy picture because it leaves out this detail.

The 2020 OSDAI Trustees Report provides actual income, outgo, and interest income through 2019. From this report, it can be concluded that the extra Social Security slush fund is rapidly disappearing. In fact, it seems to be turning to a hidden source of required year-by-year funding starting as soon as 2020 or 2021.

In some sense, the “real economy” operates on a “cash basis,” rather than an “accrual basis.” This has not been recognized in our accounting or our models. Ignoring the way the system really works likely leads to a hidden crunch, starting about 2021. We know that retirements were high in 2020, adding to the potential problem. I am certain that President Biden and his advisors are aware of this issue, even though it is never reported on the front pages of newspapers.

[4] There is really a two-sided energy price problem. Consumers can afford only low energy prices but, as the result of depletion and population growth in oil exporting countries, producers need high oil prices.

Figure 3 is a chart I prepared a few years ago. In it, there is a pattern of rapidly rising wages when oil prices were very low. Workers became more productive with new factory equipment and vehicles, produced with oil, and operated using oil products. As a result, their wages rose.

Figure 3. Average wages in 2017$ compared to Brent oil price, also in 2017$. Oil prices in 2017$ are from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. Average wages are total wages based on BEA data adjusted by the GDP price deflator, divided by total population. Thus, they reflect changes in the proportion of the population employed as well as changes in wage levels.

On the other hand, when oil prices spiked, the prices of many goods, including food, airline tickets, and the fuel used for commuting to work, rose. People cut back on discretionary income, such as eating in restaurants and vacation travel. Businesses with fewer customers laid off workers. The workers who could find jobs often found lower-paid or part time jobs. The result was a dip in average wages, both in the 1970s and at the time of the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

We now live in a world with depleted resources. The oil and other types of energy that are available are high in cost, but the prices tend to stay too low for producers when all costs are included. Oil resources from the Middle East and Venezuela, especially, need a higher oil price because the governments of these countries need very high taxes on oil revenue to support their large populations. Even shale oil from the United States needs a higher price than is available today.

If we want OPEC to supply the rest of the world with more oil, the price will need to rise much higher than today’s Brent oil price of about $73. It likely will need to rise to at least $100 per barrel and show that it can stay at this high level. Otherwise, the supposed reserves of OPEC will mostly stay in the ground.

Even the US needs a higher oil price. Its oil, gas and coal production fell during the pandemic in 2020. Through May 2021 (and even later using weekly data, not shown), oil and natural gas production has not rebounded to the 2019 level.

Figure 4. US fossil fuel average daily production by month through May 2021, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration. NGPL means natural gas plant liquids. NGPL are extracted with natural gas but condensed out and sold as liquids.

Note that oil and gas production also dipped in 2016. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were also low then. If prices are too low, would-be producers leave them in the ground.

Adding in nuclear and renewables (hydroelectric, ethanol, wood, wind, solar and geothermal) still leaves a large dip in recent production.

Figure 5. US average daily production by type based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

President Biden is no doubt aware of the fact that the US’s production of energy products, especially crude oil, is now low. In fact, earlier in August he asked OPEC and its allies to increase their oil production to try to keep prices from rising too much. Why would OPEC want to increase its production, if the US can’t increase its own production at the current price level? All of the producers need a higher price level; it is consumers who cannot afford the higher price level.

[5] The world seems to have already begun shifting to a falling energy consumption per capita situation.

The amount of energy required tends to rise with population because all of the people require food, housing and transportation. Energy, especially oil and coal, are needed for these.

Figure 6. Energy consumption per capita for all energy sources combined based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of Energy 2021.

Many countries, including the United States, have been able to hold down their internal energy consumption per capita by moving much of their industry to China and India.

Figure 7. US energy consumption per capita, divided between industrial and other, based on information of the US Energy Information Administration. Energy consumption includes both electricity and fuels such as oil, coal, natural gas, ethanol and wood burned for heat. All transportation fuels are in the “Ex. Industrial” portion.

Figure 7 shows that US industrial production reached its peak in 1973, which was shortly after US oil production started to turn down in 1971. This partly reflects auto manufacturing moving to Japan and Europe, where smaller, more fuel-efficient cars were already being sold. Home heating and electricity generation also shifted away from oil to other fuels.

The issue now is that “Ex. Industrial” consumption has been falling since the Great Recession. In some sense, the economy has been losing strength since 2008 and continues to lose strength. Fewer and fewer people can feel like they are really getting ahead. They are saddled with low wage jobs and too much debt.

Figure 8 shows similar patterns for the European Union and Japan. Energy consumption per capita was rising until a few years before the Great Recession, and then it plateaued. It has been declining since.

Figure 8. Energy consumption per capita for the European Union and Japan from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The pattern shown on Figure 8 suggests that energy prices are still too high for consumers, even though they are, at the same time, too low for producers. Travel restrictions imposed by governments may also be contributing to this pattern.

GDP data indications are prepared on an accrual basis. In other words, they reflect the impact of added debt. If missing energy can be replaced with a promise of debt to pay for more goods and services in the future, made with future energy, then perhaps all will be well. The quantity of debt that is required, relative to the GDP impact, keeps rising, suggesting this substitution is not working very well.

Figure 9. Dollars of additional debt required to add $1 dollar of GDP growth (including inflation), based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

With the addition of growing amounts of debt, GDP increases are reported to be much larger than expected growth, based only on the growth in energy consumption.

Figure 10. Average annual increase in energy consumption for the period shown based on EIA data versus average increase in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP for the period shown, based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

[6] We now seem to be reaching the end of the line with respect to what can be done with added debt to make the economy seem like it is performing adequately well.

Interest rates show a very distinct pattern. They rise until about 1981, and then they decline.

Figure 11. US 10-year and 3-month interest rates through July 2021, in a chart prepared by FRED.

When the US economy was growing rapidly, it could withstand high and rising interest rates. Since 1981, the general pattern has been one of falling interest rates, making a larger quantity of debt affordable. Indirectly, these falling interest rates also helped prop up asset prices, such as those of homes and shares of stock. In recent years, interest rates have fallen about as far as they can go. To some extent, these lower rates were made possible by Quantitative Easing (QE). But at some point, QE needs to be stopped.

Today, interest rates are approximately at the level they were during the Great Depression of the 1930s. This makes sense; interest rates to some extent reflect the return an investor can expect to make. Right now, without a lot of government support programs, “Main Street” businesses around the world are struggling. This indicates that the economy is doing very poorly. There are too many people who cannot afford even basic goods and services. Indirectly, this feeds back to commodity prices that are not high enough for producers of energy products.

Recently, governments of many countries have tried a different approach. Instead of loans, they are providing something closer to giveaways. Renters are allowed to stay rent-free in their apartments. Or, checks are given to all citizens earning below some specified amount. What we seem to be finding is that these giveaways produce inflation in the price of goods that poor people buy most frequently, such as food and used cars.

The giveaways don’t actually produce more of the required goods and services, however. Instead, would-be workers decide that they really don’t want to take a low-paid job if the giveaways provide nearly as much income. The loss of workers then acts to reduce production. With lower production of goods and services, a smaller quantity of oil is required, so the oil price tends to fall. The price certainly does not rise to the level needed by oil producers.

[7] In a finite world, longer-term models need to take into account the fact that resources deplete and the population keeps rising.

Any modeler who tries to take into account the fact that resources deplete and the overall population keeps rising will quickly come to the conclusion that, at some point, every economy will have to collapse. This has been known for a very long time. Back in 1957, Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy said,

Surplus energy provides the material foundation for civilized living – a comfortable and tasteful home instead of a bare shelter; attractive clothing instead of mere covering to keep warm; appetizing food instead of anything that suffices to appease hunger. . .

For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.

Now, in 2021, it looks as if this problem is starting to hit us. But no one (since Jimmy Carter, who was not re-elected) has dared tell the general public. Instead, accrual accounting with more and more debt is used in financial statements, including GDP statements. Actuaries put together Social Security funding estimates as if the resources to provide the promised benefits will really be there. Climate change models are prepared as if business as usual can go on for the next hundred years. Everything published by the mainstream media is based on the underlying assumption that we will have no problems other than climate change for the next 100 years.

[8] About all that can be done now is to start cutting back on the less necessary parts of the economy.

President Biden’s abrupt pullout from Afghanistan reflects a reality that increasingly has to take place in the world. The US needs to start pulling back because there are too many people and not enough inexpensive to extract resources to fulfill all of the commitments that the US has made. As mentioned earlier, there are a number of obstacles to success in Afghanistan. Thus, it is a good place to start.

With the need to pull back, there is a much higher level of conflict, both within and between countries. The big issue becomes who, or what, is going to be “voted off the island” next. Is it the elderly or the poor; the military or the oversized US medical establishment; university education for a large share of students or classroom teaching for young children?

We don’t seem to have a good way out of our current predicament. This seems to be what is behind all of the recent internet censorship. Renewables and nuclear require fossil fuel energy for their production and maintenance. The powers that be don’t want anyone to know that nearly all of the “happily ever after using renewables” stories we hear are based on wishful thinking.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,463 Responses to The Afghanistan Fiasco (and Today’s High Level of Conflict) Reflect an Energy Problem

  1. nikoB says:

    I found this podcast exceedingly interesting. 

    Basically about treatment protocols on two stages of the disease using standard drugs.

    The hypothesis being that the second stage is an allergic reaction to spike protein.

    Treatment with steriods, anti histamines etc….

    hope you find it interesting.


    • These are my notes from the first 45 minutes of the video.

      Omar Khan interviews Dr. Shankara Chetty, General Practitioner in Rural South Africa (Port Edwards) (Black doctor in formerly white city)
      Studied in India.

      COVID illness seems to have two phases to it. Virus acts as a vector to bring the spike protein into your body on the eighth day. Reaction can very high or low for each of these two phases. One is almost independent of the other. People who die, die after the eighth day.

      Allergic reaction to the spike protein starts on eighth day. About 20% to 30% are allergic to the spike protein. In some sense, this is what Dr. Chetty would expect if the response is an allergic reaction, based on the frequency of allergic reactions.

      Dr. Getty used an open air clinic (inside a tent). He was successful in treating many patients, without any of the staff catching COVID, when clinic was outside. Lockdowns are counter-productive. Sunlight and fresh air are important in stopping the spread. Disease seems not to be spread by droplets, but by the vapor.

      Didn’t wear gloves. Did use double mask and lab coat, which he changed and washed each day.

      Very unusual to spread outside. Very unusual to spread by fomites (virus on object). Locking people in, was the worst possible strategy.

      Initially, saw a typical virus, in the first seven days. Only unusual symptom was loss of taste or smell in 20% or 30%. Didn’t have access to ivermectin.

      Focus was on understanding breathlessness. Every patient was told came back if breathlessness hit. These patients were not acutely ill. They didn’t look like they had viral pneumonia. People had been better before, then came back with difficulty breathing. Started steroids on the eighth day. Saw improvement then.

      Why did patients come back on exactly eighth day, after they started to feel better? Disjointed, almost like too different diseases. Also heard about “long covid”?

      He felt allergy tied into the same pattern. Culprit seems to be some kind of viral debris. He decided to treat the illness as if this is an allergy.

      In determining what works, speed to recovery is important. Steroid treatment seemed to take three days to recovery. (Dr. Chetty talks about which types of steroids works best a bit later in the tape.)

      Dr. Chetty then added promethazine (antihistamine) to the steroid treatment. Patient was perfectly well in one day, rather than three. Improved overnight. This acted like some kind of allergy; likely a Type 1 response.

      Dr. Chetty next added Montelukast (a drug used by those with asthma) to antihistamines. Drug was called “Singular” while under patent. Over the counter in many countries. That seemed to be helpful as well.

      Added aspirin to the protect from coagulation problems. Some patients needed another drug as well.

      Dr. Chetty’s Observations
      The illness seems to act like a sudden swelling of the lungs. Like an edema in reaction to a bee sting.

      Antivirals can’t work after eighth day. Virus has past by then.

      Need to treat each of the symptoms, as they arise.

      Average cost of treatment is $8 to $10. Can all be done on outpatient basis. All of the treatments he suggest are “on label.”

      There may be more in the last 20 minutes of the tape, but I didn’t get that far.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Thank you for the summary. This is fascinating.

        The idea of an allergic reaction to the spike protein fits well with my own experience of having a tight chest “like a sudden swelling of the lungs” that I developed a month ago after being in a crowded veterinarians surgery for an hour. I hit this hard with ivermectin and it was gone by the next day.

        It was a symptom I’ve never experienced before, and nothing like what has happened to me when I’ve had a chesty cough or a bout of flu in the past. My first thought was, Covid-19. But I suppose it could have been an animal virus or even Legionella from an air conditioner.

        I suppose we’d all better keep a good antihistamine in the medicine cupboard from now on.

  2. Yoshua says:

    The Covid infected are now being infected with multiple viruses at the same time like AIDS patients.

  3. CTG says:

    As a follow up to my post on ADE happening in Singapore. It is certainly getting worse…..

    • I am not sure the problem is ADE. The vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Or hospitalization!

        In fact is seems to be CAUSING increased hospitalizations!

        1000 vs 8000. Increasing…. but the Boosters will slow this down… until an even more powerful version of the virus is created ….

        And then….

        BOOM! Off the Charts we go

      • Mike Roberts says:

        It prevents transmission in the sense that vaccinated people are less likely to develop the disease whereby they become transmission vehicles. This is borne out in the figures for cases, where the vaccination proportions are known.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Transmission of the infection and development of the disease are two different things. Linking these two things via “in the sense that” is illogical.

          The vaxed, if they encounter the virus, can develop and tolerate very high viral loads without exhibiting symptoms. This means they are more likely to be coming into contact with other people and unwittingly passing on the virus. The unvaxed, by contrast, if they have high viral loads, are more likely to be feeling at least under the weather, and so they will stay home and not spread the virus to others outside of their immediate family members.

          There should be a vaccine against the vaxed for the unvaxed to take. Problem is the unvaxed would refuse to take it.

  4. hillcountry says:

    UTICA, N.Y. (AP) — A federal judge temporarily blocked the state of New York on Tuesday from forcing medical workers to be vaccinated after a group of health care workers sued, saying their Constitutional rights were violated because the state’s mandate disallowed religious exemptions.

    Judge David Hurd in Utica issued the order after 17 health professionals, including doctors and nurses, claimed in a lawsuit Monday that their rights were violated with a vaccine mandate that disallowed the exemptions.

    The judge gave New York state until Sept. 22 to respond to the lawsuit in federal court in Utica. If the state opposes the plaintiffs’ request for a preliminary court order blocking the vaccine mandate, a Sept. 28 oral hearing will occur

    • hillcountry says:

      Maybe Karl Denninger is having some impact. He’s on a roll with this one from a few days ago and it has the longest and rowdiest comment section ever.

      “Never in my life did I think I’d hear a President of the United States all but declare war on 1/4 of the citizens of the nation. Yet that is what Joe Biden did yesterday. That was worse than stupid; it was inciting an all-on rebellion. Within hours approaching half the States had declared vehement opposition. In the fantasy land wild imaginations of some on the left everyone will fold. Uh, nope.

      First, Biden reportedly exempted The Post Office. That alone was likely enough to get his attempt ruled against on an injunctive basis. You obviously aren’t serious about public health when one of the agencies that the public has contact with every day is exempt, it is an essential agency and has something like 600,000 employees. Why did he exempt them? Because they’re a union shop and a large percentage have refused vaccination. Biden knows this and he knows that if they walk or strike he’s instantly ****ed, and they both can and might. A later update said oh no, they’re included. We’ll see.

      But then during his presser he let the truth out:

      “We’re going to protect vaccinated workers against unvaccinated workers.”


      If the vaccines are in fact vaccines and work then….. what protection do those who choose to get them need? None! But if they don’t work — if you get vaccinated and are still at risk then why would someone take one? It’s stupid to take a jab that doesn’t actually protect you. More to the point why would those who haven’t been vaccinated not tell you to go straight to Hell, and why would any court uphold this sort of order when you admit that a person who accepts the vaccine is not protected — that is, it does not actually provide protection against disease?

      Then there’s the other problem: A quarter of all Americans have had Covid-19 and are immune. They have actual protection. 12x or more better than a jab and they already took the risk because they got infected. A huge percentage of them were essential workers and took the risk over the first nine or so months of this thing while making sure you had medical care, your grocery store was stocked and your mail got delivered.
      In doing this they got infected, some died, nearly all recovered and all of those who recovered are presumptively immune. They have no reason whatsoever to put up with any of this bull**** and if they all walk their employer is ****ed instantly, no matter who that employer might be.

  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Global Debt Hits Record $296 Trillion as World Lockdowns Ease…

    “Global debt loads surged during the second quarter as households seized on low mortgage rates and governments continued borrowing heavily to revive pandemic-battered economies.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Shutdown and Aftershocks — Covid and the new world order…

      “A global threat such as Covid-19, one that does not discriminate between nations, ideologies or races, might have been expected to encourage or force even rival great powers to work together. Instead, it has done the opposite, becoming itself a tool of systemic rivalry.”


      • hillcountry says:

        Where’s Orson Welles when you need him?

        During a speech before the United Nations in 1987, President Ronald Reagan spoke longingly for the world unity that would happen if aliens invaded Earth.

        “Perhaps we need some outside universal threat to make us recognize this common bond. I occasionally think how quickly our differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world.”

    • This article reports:

      “. . . the amount of debt relative to the size of the global economy declined for the first time since the onset of the pandemic as growth rebounded. The total debt load stood at about 353% of the world’s annual economic output, a nine-percentage-point drop from the peak during the first three months of 2021.”

      This sounds fairly incredible to me. Evidently, whoever put this together thinks that the world economy is growing incredibly fast.

      World’s economic output at end of 2nd quarter must have been 296/353% = 83.8 trillion

      World’s economic output at end of 1st quarter must have been 288.8/362% = 79.8 trillion

      Thus, in a single quarter, the world’s economy must have grown by about 5%. Wow!

  6. hillcountry says:

    Interesting take from Rick Ackerman on changes in China.

    “It’s not simply a matter of targeting the kinds of companies we associate with America’s terminal-stage consumerism, income inequality and decadence. The CCP’s reforms are also designed to shift investment capital toward industries positioned to provide a brighter economic future for the Chinese people, and to grow an economically robust middle class. This policy implicitly rejects and rebukes an American-style capitalism that has atrophied to the point where it has become fatally unproductive.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      More Ghost Towns!

    • China has to simplify, too, now that there is less energy. It must decide which industries to “vote off the island.”

      China can see it cannot continue building as many condominiums. It takes too much energy are other resources. For profit educational services tend to lead to wider disparities between rich children and poor children. Entertaining children with video games cannot really be all that productive either, in the whole scheme of things.

      Maybe there is some sense to at least part of what China is cutting back on.

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “UN warns 1 million Afghan children at risk of starvation before winter hits.

    “United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres gave the warning while speaking in Geneva at a U.N. conference on the matter of Afghanistan’s dwindling resources and the livelihood of its people.”

  8. Yoshua says:


    We are the cancer

  9. MG says:

    The most vulnerable part is the energy production:

    “New drug inhibits the growth of cancer cells

    Blocking gene expression in mitochondria in mice stops cancer cells from growing

    DECEMBER 16, 2020
    A newly developed compound starves cancer cells by attacking their “power plants” – the so-called mitochondria. The new compound prevents the genetic information within mitochondria from being read. Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing in Cologne, the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm and the University of Gothenburg report in their study that this compound could be used as a potential anti-tumour drug in the future; not only in mice but also in human patients.”

    All implodes without the energy.

  10. adonis says:

    Presenting the Interim Economic Outlook today, OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said vaccination programmes and stimulus measures should work hand in hand.

    “Widespread vaccination of the adult population is the best economic policy available today to get our economies and employment growing again,” she said. “If we are at war with the virus then we need to put vaccine production on a war footing, provide the necessary resources and speed up deployment across the world.”

    • Xabier says:

      One always goes to economists for medical advice.

      And of course they must have reason on their side, as they all agree on the correct policy, worldwide.

      This unanimity – economists,scientists, medics, politicians, journalists, celebrities, bankers – is beautiful and inspiring to behold.

      At last, comrades, Mankind is coming together!

      • Ed says:

        Xabier, thank you for this post. It helps me stay sane to hear it again.

        • Xabier says:

          Thanks, Ed.

          The Truth, just like the sun rising every morning in varied splendour (except here in dank grey England!) is a repetition we need.

          Just as their lies are an attempt to block all Light from our lives.

          Please drink plenty of the good wine of the South for me, in the right setting, when you get to Portugal!

  11. adonis says:

    another juicy CIA covid conspiracy story

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    Shared the ski lift twice with a GP (from the same clinic that I have lodged a complaint)…. I mentioned Israel and booster 4 etc… as well as no healthy people under 25 dead from covid in the US… he is aware of both …

    Dismisses risks of the endless boosters because mrna is tested.. (but of course not the vax itself haha) — I didn’t metion Malone.. acknowledges almost no risk for kids who get covid… but concern about long term effects…

    Here’s my takeaway … he is a true believer… end of the day most doctors prescribe drugs in exchange for Pharma sponsored ‘conferences’…. so they are thoroughly corrupt already …

    They cannot be bothered to look into these vaxxes just as they would generally not be interested in looking beyond the Ministry of Health guidelines for any treatment….

    They are busy enough as it is with seeing patients… and handling the endless paperwork… they do not have time to put the hours in searching down other narratives… and it does take time because Google is hiding most of it…

    They see what most people see… the MSM garbage….

    I am not surprised that so few doctors are pushing back… most believe the BS — those that no play ball are few and far between and they can lose their jobs if they do make trouble…. and they are smart enough to see that going against the grain is futile… so why bother…. no upside

    Most of us would do the same thing if put in the same position … when faced with loss of you livelihood… most people tend to go with the flow rather than rock the boat

    • Tim Groves says:

      The question most people don’t seem to be asking is where is this boat heading?

      One of my neighbors is a nurse in her late sixties. Around the beginning of this year she was lamenting having to get the jab as there had been so many scare stories. She’s already on a decent pension and so could retire today with no financial problems, but she wants to keep working and the local hospitals are always short of staff. But she wouldn’t think of refusing because it’s not something a nurse could do. So come the springtime, she went ahead and submitted to two Pfizer jabs.

      Then, come the summer, she’s happily complaining that she’s overworked because she has a side job, in addition to her regular shifts, of jabbing long lines of seniors who are queuing up for their Pfizer injections. In the past week, she proudly informed me she’d injected 1,200 people. I didn’t have the gall to ask her if she was being paid by the hour or by the arm.

    • T.Y. says:

      I only started seeing through the cracks because of 2 things:

      1. Stopped watching the news
      2. Started to see large discrepancies between mainstream media articles and reality, especially concerning the so-called “recovery” after the GFC in 2008.

      After graduation i went working as expat on a rotational schedule (1 month abroad, 2 weeks holiday home), in exchange we worked 12-13 hrs per day, 6 days a week and sometimes sunday too if duty called. After the long office hours the expats tended to go for dinner together, so this left very little time for television, and what little free time there was, was spent on site seeing or sports as this is generally better quality relaxation than television.
      This caused one to actively start searching out news on the internet rather than taking it in passively. Even after moving back home (after 4years), i never bothered to get cable tv.
      One quickly notices the “tabloid nature” of many free internet articles, so started considering alternative sources. Some of them were better quality and had more in-depth analysis. At some point somewhere there was a graph of the oil prices going through the rough just prior to GFC and crashing immediately with it: that was an “uhu, i think i’m on to something” moment. Took me another year or so of researching peak oil before i even stumbled onto OFW.

      There is no doubt that a lot of mainstream actors are going to great lengths to keep people “in the matrix”, It would appear that a major part of it is self-censorship from smart people wo do not WANT to know what is really happening. For one because it is too horrible to consider the consequences, and – as you say – mainstream punishes non-conformers so there is little benefit in it on a personal level.

  13. Extraordinary days..

    I watched the Blinker-fluid Blinken grilling session highlights in Congress/Senate.
    Orlov has been proven correct this rhymes with Glasnost ver2.0 bigly!
    This shows many signs of very likely CD, attempted, managed retreat of the f_USA.
    One senator even asked about if staffers have a cancel button on the potus creature as evidently seen on recent public (telecast) occasions..

    Moreover the AI finally delivered beyond human level comprehension and even offered this fine and fitting soundtrack to it all:


      Top Democrat threatens to subpoena Biden officials as Blinken testifies on Afghanistan

      In more than five hours of testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Monday, Blinken calmly defended nearly every aspect of the withdrawal and evacuation effort — refusing to concede it could have been handled differently even as he faced intense criticism and calls to resign from furious Republicans.

      “We inherited a deadline. We did not inherit a plan,” Blinken told members of the committee, repeatedly blaming former President Trump for forcing the Biden administration’s hand with the peace deal he struck with the Taliban.

      He praised Biden’s decision to end the war in Afghanistan as righteous and the evacuation effort as “extraordinary,” while acknowledging that about 100 U.S. citizens and possibly “thousands” of green card holders remain in the country.

      Blinken also disputed Republicans’ claims that Biden ignored or “manipulated” intelligence about the pending collapse of the Afghan government, insisting that the administration performed as well as it could have under conditions no one predicted.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “One senator even asked about if staffers have a cancel button on the potus creature as evidently seen on recent public (telecast) occasions.”

      he is so obviously a puppet, at least from my seat here in the USA, perhaps non Americans can’t grasp it the way a lifelong native can.

      Bush II was another puppet, but at least he understood and even stated publicly that he was “the decider”. He knew that no matter how much he was pushed from within the US gov, he could still make the final decisions.

      no way Bideng is making any decisions, surely he understood all throughout his fayke presidential campaign (he surged on super Tuesday from out of nowhere to the clear frontrunner) that he would be handed the D nomination and would be elected by stealth means.

      and understood that his role would then be to do whatever he was told to do.

      he is in such mental decline that he is most likely very grateful that he doesn’t have to do any thinking on his own.

      just obey “them”, who are probably O and his deep state cronies who have been entrenched in the US gov for 12 years now.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        “Bideng”? Is that a Chinese transliteration?

        (拜登, Bai Deng)

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          oooh, what is the meaning?

          • Bei Dawei says:

            It’s just phonetic. That’s how his name is written in Chinese. Normally 拜 means worship / bowing, while 登 means climb or ascent (like a mountain, not a tree).

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              so he ascended to the political mountaintop, the presidency, and yet he must bow down to his puppeteers.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              For the sake of comparison, “Trump” gets translated as “Chuan Pu” (川普). 川 means “river” while 普 means “common” (as in “common language”).

              “Hitler” is Xi De Le (希特勒). 希 means “hope,” 特 means “virtue,” and 勒 means “bind.”

            • Bei Dawei says:

              Sorry, not “virtue.” More like “special.” Anyway, all these characters are normally found as parts of compounds.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Hi David! Have you come around to my way of seeing this “Joe Biden” as an actor who is not the real thing?

        As a “native” American and a discerning individual, do you get a sense that this “Joe Biden” is really in serious mental decline or that he is an actor pretending to be in serious mental decline?

        When I posted the video of this “Joe Biden” being interviewed during the 2020 campaign against the backdrop of a suburban or rural family restaurant and with an amazing “white neck”, that man was more cognitively able than the average seventy-something senior citizen. He fielded questions on the economy and confidently and without obvious prompting.

        I would doubt that the man being interviewed could have been transformed in one short year into the current “Mr. Magoo” character we see today by natural decline alone. Did he have half a dozen shots of something that fried his brain? Or is he pretending? Occam’s razor suggests to me the latter.

        Incidentally, one of my oldest American friends got tired of me pestering him about Covid and 9/11, so I wrote to him tongue in cheek that if he didn’t want to talk about those things, was he up for a discussion of the fake moon landings. When he gave me a five-word reply: “we walked on the moon,” I asked if he was actually there, on the surface, witnessing the event. At this he wrote back, “I don’t know if there are two Joe Bidens, but there seem to be two Tim Groves” and he doesn’t recognize the one who talks to him now. Apparently he remembers me as smart and sensible before I got into all this conspiracizing. He also mentioned Alex Jones and the flat earth, so I wrote back, “I see. Well… I guess I’ll take that as a ‘No’ then.”

        • Kowalainen says:

          Why the belief/zeal? Why not just entertain the thought and assign a placeholder probability. Unlikely/likely.

          Ask your friend to assume X would be true, then what follows?

          *shrugs* 🤷‍♂️

        • Bei Dawei says:

          My theory is that Biden was switched as a baby, with another baby who had the same name. For all we know, the *real* US president may be being trained as a terrorist somewhere even now.

        • Tim, following explanations at hand (or combo):

          – switcheroo / several persons
          – legit person gets through very wild swings-gyrations based on actual medical condition and pills / treatment receiving
          – legit person with severe med issue however on purpose over playing bad conditions to cover for himself and family

          As of now in my book:
          first option 5%, second option 75%, third option 15% probability

          • Kowalainen says:

            Doesn’t want the job (who would besides Orange Man Bad?).

            Acting senile with the bluff called. 95%

      • david> yes, there are different degrees of puppet and pre selected fall guys to shield the inner playground; obviously most of the theatrics during the hearings was performed by swamp creatures anyway – we are not that naive here, what I was putting forward is a notable step change in divisiveness, about internal policy stuff getting out in the public domain in qualitatively different way.. that’s what Orlov predicted (replay of USSRs fall through gov infighting, incompetence, wrong bets at crucial thresholds) and it’s apparently ongoing now albeit in slightly different circumstances.. For example the msm is not covering this (e.g. white wash of the juicy bits ala that Axios link) with the exception of “foreign” Fox/Sky, but the debate shifted on the net, and it definitively percolates down through the lower classes… this is no longer Monica L. or other past “scandal” level urgency to them..

    • Kowalainen says:

      Yeah, and why would a superhuman level AI care about the rapacious primate shenanigans?

      Why torture AI’s with the perpetual repetitions of Homo sapiens sapiens psychology of booms and busts? It’s cruel.

      Let’s just send it full tilt down the Seneca and then call it a day.

      MÖAR FÖR TEH “WÏN”!!!!!


    • Mrs S says:

      That Orchestra is brilliant!! You’re right it makes a wonderful soundtrack to the insanity.

      Thanks so much for posting that.

    • Dana says:

      I LOVE the Orkestra Obsolete vid you posted! Thanks, World!

  14. Yoshua says:

    There is zero chance that vaccine targeting just the spike protein can stop a pandemic. It is so in our face if we look around. They are injecting pregnant women and children with the poisonous spike…and no one is reacting…despite all the adverse effects. It’s so crazy that it’s impossible to grasp it.

    • MonkeyBusiness says:

      Very few protested when the bankers were bailed out. Same situation with Iraq, etc, etc. The bankers repeatedly said that the population is just a bunch of muppets, and by definition muppets are easy to roll over.

      • Correct, but it always boils over eventually “in one” bad day, irrespective of building up slowly for decades or centuries.. Now we seemed to be in late(r) phase when many “muppets” (not enough) start to question just everything. That typically signals there’s not much road left to land this wounded beast safely..

        There are escape valves and last millisecond turnarounds though.
        Very difficult and messy, in this context secession / balkanization, lower mil ranks coup, perhaps less likely widespread strikes – shutdowns – reconciliation unity govs, etc.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          the sheeple won’t boil over as long as they have food and smartphones/internet.

          yes I agree we are in a late(r) phase.

          the sheeple gonna baa baa.

          the gov/MSM/BigTech propaganda machine is running at top speed and will continue to manipulate the narrative.

          they won’t be able to manipulate sheeple with empty stomachs.

          this can’t go on for much longer.

          within 5 to 10 years, it explodes.

          • MonkeyBusiness says:

            Every 10 years, we say “within 5 to 10 years it explodes”. Doomers have predicted 70 out of the 2 recessions. It’s really boring seriously.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              Is there some kind of timer you can set, that automatically erases a blog after five years? I bet Gail would be willing to put one up.

            • Monkey, this is a nuanced debate, US is by all evidence a legacy top dog of this variant of IC (irrespective of true command / beneficiary center in the City/Basel etc). So, it’s understandable the 2.5-3rd world periphery starves first before the core, yes Americans are relatively speaking still fat and over-saturated with propaganda. That will end in some not too distant future, however, reaching and crossing that point also doesn’t equal universal global IC collapse, because various regional techno fiefdoms could be maintained elsewhere for longer (Asia), even in some parts of the f_USA.

  15. Yoshua says:

    If the virus doesn’t kill us, then the Vax will.

    • The vaccine leads to memory loss by 2025?

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        I’m patiently waiting for the early reports of the beginning of the mass dieoff.

        before that, if prion disease or other long term health problems kick in, then I would expect to see gov/MSM reporting that it was covid that will then be causing the brain disease etc that will be in ever growing numbers.

        the narrative will be that the dementia/deaths will be from long-covid, not from the vaccines.

        we’ll see.

        I also suppose that the 5 year studies of the longer term health problems from the vaccines will be finished by about 2025.

        do the math, you know?

        or did I miss the reports on those completed 5 year studies?

        can anyone help me here? bbbwwwaaaahahahahahahahahaha.

        • No one would ever mention that vaccine, even if it was perfectly obvious what was happening.

          On the other hand, none of us really knows what will happen by 2025. Maybe prion disease will be an issue, and maybe not. Maybe we will be more worried about other issues by then.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            I agree about prion disease, it could be a rare side effect of the toxic spike protein mRNA “vaccines”, or it could be a very common side effect.

            the experiment is being conducted on the volunteers who willingly got jabbed.

            and the unvaccinated are the control group.

            • postkey says:

              ‘“IT’S A BIOWEAPON,” says Dr.. Richard Fleming referring to the virus and the genome of the virus. Dr. Fleming also asserts that new research indicates that the genetic sequences that are in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines do not match the source code CoV-2 virus genome, but are spot on with the prion-like domain region which produces what the general public refers to as mad cow disease.’

      • Bei Dawei says:

        The current year is actually 2028. If you think it’s still 2025…oh right.

  16. Yoshua says:

    This is the first bat virus pandemic in history.

    A virus that jumps from a bat to a human, doesn’t jump from a human to another human.
    A virus that infects eyes is strange.
    A virus that jumps from a bat to a human, to a mink is unheard of.
    A virus that infects the brain is very specialised.

    Fauci knows, they all know that this is a lab leak.
    There actually is a global conspiracy.

    • Do you suggest this was performed in sync (in some capacity) with the Chinese govs (or faction there of)? I’d score this lower probability than other scenarios at hand, but possible indeed. The WEFers don’t have much macro options left – they go either for their own little fiefdom domain no matter what, and given how they are thrashing the US lately, it will be based in some Eurolands setting – or there is some coordinated grand degrowth and demand restriction plan agreed upon by the key players. China already delivered on the pop cap, but it’s propping up nearby satellites. Europe dumped its own southern wing and is keen on curbing demand in its core gradually as well. Time will tell..

      The bottom line issue remains the dead end projection wedges on Surplus graphs correlate very closely with the time frame of ~2025-35 put out also by those int organizations, that’s not coincidence, they simply ran similar models on their own.

      • Replenish says:

        “In October, 2021, the World Economic Forum (WEF) will launch its global headquarters for urban transformation in Detroit.”

        • Bei Dawei says:

          Hooray! Detroit is saved!

        • Replenish> thanks interesting, on similar note the EU madame just announced need / funding for EU based CPU-chip factories based locally, perhaps circling the wagons for each hub (US/EU) is the theme forward.. aka defaulting to blocks structure from today’s globo

          JMS & Christopher> yes it’s a possibility, again perhaps strengthened now by the alleged story of DoD calling Chinese “in secret” during Trump’s term that they would forewarn them about any outgoing “crazy” attack on them..

          Actually, if I recall it correctly there were “frank” discussions about various options right before both WWI&II by various key potentates of that era. So, perhaps again it’s just about degree of (non)cooperation among the big boyz at historical crossroads and nowadays it’s the specific round of way closer coop..

      • JMS says:

        “Do you suggest this was performed in sync (in some capacity) with the Chinese govs (or faction there of)?”

        If i had to bet, I would say of course. Why? Because of this: Chinese WEF partners – Alibaba, Mengniu Group, China Energy Investment Group, China Railway Group, China Construction Bank, China Southern Power grid, State grid corporation of China, Guangzho Automobile group….. etc, etc.

        • Christopher says:

          It shouldn’t be that hard to convince the chinese government. It looks like a win-win situation for the chinese gov + the WEFers to play the pandemic card. Followed by a low intense Orwellian 1984-like conflict where you can blame all the ills on the other side. You get increased authoritarianism and decreased consumtion levels. The alternative would have been uncontrolled (insta) collapse. I guess we should be grateful…

          • Yep, perhaps in that fashion they squeeze out few extra decades of (some) food rations and (hours) of electricity per day for selected parts of the world. That’s plenty of carrot on a stick for the human-donkey at peak times..

    • This doesn’t sound good at all. Regarding production, the article says:

      EU gas production fell sharply by 11% year on year in Q1, amounting to just 13.8 Bcm, the EC said.

      Regarding consumption, the article says:

      Gas consumption in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2021 rose by 7.6% year on year to 141.8 Bcm, the European Commission said in its most recent quarterly gas market report published July 9.

      “In the first quarter of 2021 gas consumption in the EU was higher than in the same months of 2020, and closer to the upper range of the last five years,” the EC said.

      Among the biggest gas consuming countries, demand rose in Germany by 11% — or 3.4 Bcm — in Q1, in the Netherlands by 10% (1.4 Bcm), in France by 6% (0.9 Bcm), and in Italy by 5% (1.2 Bcm).


      Despite the fall in production and rise in demand, imports also fell in Q1, with total net extra-EU gas imports totaling 78.5 Bcm, down 3% year on year.

      The drop implies that the majority of the demand increases in the quarter were met by EU storage, with sites across Europe significantly drawn down in the first months of 2021.

    • The article says:

      “The record market prices over recent weeks are expected to lead to hikes in household energy bills until 2022, rising levels of fuel poverty and the collapse of many small energy suppliers.”

      These marketing companies that guarantee a certain rate can’t really do what they claim, if prices rise. It is not clear to me that these marketing companies do anything at all, besides adding a layer of costs and a layer of companies to go bankrupt when price spike.

  17. Lastcall says:

    This Convid ‘mass media myth’ is nothing new. The final sentence rings true; ‘There is no more reliable propaganda-system in the world today than the western media’.

    ‘…..steer the public in whatever direction they choose.’

    The Pentagon’s bold new approach to psychological operations (psy-ops) appears to have derived from the theories of former State Dept official, Philip Zelikow (who also served on the 9-11 Commission) Zelikow is an expert on “the creation and maintenance of ‘public myths’ or ‘public presumptions’. His theory analyzes how consciousness is shaped by “searing events” which take on “transcendent importance” and, therefore, move the public in the direction chosen by the policymakers.

    “In the Nov-Dec 1998 issue of Foreign Affairs he (Zelikow) co-authored an article called ‘Catastrophic Terrorism’ in which he speculated that if the 1993 bombing of the World Trade center had succeeded ‘the resulting horror and chaos would have exceeded our ability to describe it. Such an act of catastrophic terrorism would be a watershed event in American history. ‘It could involve loss of life and property unprecedented in peacetime and undermine America’s fundamental sense of security, as did the Soviet bomb test in 1949. The US might respond with draconian measures scaling back civil liberties, allowing wider surveillance of citizens, detention of suspects and use of deadly force. More violence could follow, either future terrorist attacks or US counterattacks. Belatedly, Americans would judge their leaders negligent for not addressing terrorism more urgently”. ()

    Zelikow’s article presumes that if one creates their own “searing event” (such as 9-11 or the bombing of the Golden Dome Mosque) they can steer the public in whatever direction they choose. His theory depends entirely on a “state-media nexus” which can be depended on to disseminate propaganda uniformly. There is no more reliable propaganda-system in the world today than the western media.

    • vbaker says:

      Along these lines, today it became apparent to every Canadian that they do not have a functional press:

      === Canada’s Fourth Estate – Now Destroyed ===

      This country is officially corrupt. A government has captured its media. This means there is no valid news in the newspapers or on television. You can take everything you think you know, and flush it down the toilet. When there is no journalism, there is no truth. We have just learned nearly everyone of them has been bought.

      The video story:

      The evidence:

      It’s time we demand the truth, as the consequences of the lies are destroying this country. We know this because we can no longer talk about important issues. It’s all censored, and we now know why.

      If you want to know where the money came from, just ask yourself, who did the country just spend billions to?

    • The link is a 2007 article called Information Warfare, Psy-ops and the Power of Myth: A look at the bombing of the Golden Dome Mosque in Samarra

      The article starts out:

      The bombing of the Golden Dome Mosque in Samarra is the cornerstone of Bush’s psychological operations (psy-ops) in Iraq. That’s why it is critical to have an independent investigation and discover who is really responsible. The bombing has been used as a “Pearl Harbor-type” event which has deflected responsibility for the 650,000 Iraqi casualties and more than 3 million refugees. These are the victims of American occupation not civil war.

      The bombing was concocted by men who believe that they can control the public through perception management.

      • Replenish says:

        “In the summer of 2000, the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), a neo-conservative think tank riddled with soon to be Bush administration officials and advisors, issued a document calling for the radical restructuring of U.S. government and military policies.”

        “Referring to the goals of transforming the U.S. and global power structure, the paper states that because of the American Public’s slant toward ideas of democracy and freedom, “this process of transformation is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor.”

  18. A good movie (better than the book in this aspect) is Out of Africa.

    A handful of wealth, upper class Europeans living like, for all practical purposes, Gods.

    The ‘middle class’, some Somali who help out the elites, live in shacks kinda near the palatial mansions of the elites, and are supposed to keep the locals in line.

    The menial workers , local Kikuyus who live in houses made with ‘mud’ (which can mean anything in that part of world), are paid just enough not to starve, and fear the Somali more than the masters who simply don’t think about them.

    The irony is the menial workers are still in a better position than their brethren since their status is more or less secure as long as they continue to be effective and do not cross the Somali.

    We are going back to that era. Today’s winners living in their many palaces, some servants (i said ‘some’ , no more than 3-5% of the general pop) serving them more or less directly, some disposable workers below them (maybe 15-20% of the pop) and the rest, I have to say, not too much use.

    • we only left that era for a brief flash of time

      few know or can accept that.

    • Dennis L. says:

      So with the obvious wealth around them, why did they continue to live in a shack? What is to lose by going forward? They are the hunter gathers of this blog, why didn’t they do so? Why rely on the Europeans? Why did they see that as a better alternative to the lives they obviously could make for themselves?

      No sarcasm, don’t understand.

      dennis L.

      • eKnock says:

        Gun powder vs a stick and a rock. Ok. Maybe the poor folk had a piece of steel.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Africa is huge, walk away; using a gun in this situation has similarities to the US effort and cost in Afghanistan.

          Not an argument, a hut is a hut, a very large country, move and build another hut.

          Dennis L.

      • wealth, when it is in the form of mineral resources is of no ‘value’ until it is converted into something else

        The Saudis in theory, were the richest nation on earth.

        But until their oil was converted into something else, they remained goat herders and camel traders.

        It is the conversion process that creates wealth.

        Not the resource itself.

        Wealth is created when capital becomes the tool of entropy. (NP)

  19. Harry McGibbs says:

    “From zippers to glass, shortages of basic goods hobble U.S. economy… Shortages of metals, plastics, wood and even liquor bottles are now the norm.

    “The upshot is a world where buyers must wait for delivery of items that were once plentiful, if they can get them at all.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Record 56 containerships queued at LA/Long Beach ports.

      “There are now nearly twice as many containerships waiting to get into the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA/LB) as there are berthed for cargo operations.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Chip shortage drags on as plant closures hit carmakers… With a cascade of factory closures across Europe, North America and Asia, the shortages are likely to continue well into next year…

        “Estimates of the likely hit to car production because of the shortages have shot up in recent days.”

        • Fewer chips mean more workers laid off; fewer cars in total sold.

          • No, in terms of employment, factories are constantly increasing robots share on the assembly line y/y.. so that’s not direct correlation, besides salaried lower income people don’t buy new carz every ~3-5yrs more like one in a decade+ ..

            On the other issue, yes, it smells as demand destruction by mandate – the cheapest standard sized econoboxes were sold at less than ~EUR7k just few yrs ago. While today’s combo of halted production, higher emission mandates almost doubled that for today..
            Hence the price spike / demand up on the used car market as well.

    • Just in time delivery systems don’t work in this situation. It becomes impossible to make as many goods and services as in the past, because there is too much down time waiting for missing parts.

      • Ed says:

        Part of Elon’s success make every thing in house.

        • MonkeyBusiness says:

          Not really. Most companies do NOT make chips in house, Tesla included. Tesla DESIGNS their own chips, but the chips are made somewhere else.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            PALO ALTO, U.S. — Tesla will continue buying batteries from longtime Japanese supplier Panasonic until at least 2022 despite the U.S. electric vehicle maker’s plans to produce its own cheaper alternative.

            Tesla revealed on Monday that it has signed a new pricing agreement with Panasonic for lithium-ion batteries.

  20. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Pune: Low pollution during lockdown linked to warmer seas, say studies [ie loss of dimming warmed waters around India].

    “Three recent studies… have linked last year’s Covid-19 lockdown in March to an abnormal increase in the surface temperature of both bodies of water.”

  21. Student says:

    Judges of the prosecutor’s office of Genoa (Liguria’s capital) are investigating on suspected deaths of young people at vaccine hubs.
    These hubs were in fact open to everybody without any resctrictions and preventive medical controls on people and they were organized by Liguria Region, but also by other Italian Regions.
    Ligurian Judges will coordinate their activities with European office ‘Eurojust’.

    • This is Google Translate applied to part of your first article listed:

      The investigations into the suspicious deaths following the vaccination against COVID continue and in particular there are two of these that could bring the most important news in the coming weeks.

      The investigations of the prosecutors of Genoa

      These are the cases of Camilla Canepa, the 18-year-old girl from Genoa who died in June following a thrombosis, found shortly after vaccination, and the case of Francesca Tuscano, a 32-year-old teacher also from Genoa, who had lost life last April. And now the Genoese prosecutors seem to have reached a first conclusion.

      In the draft filed with the Prosecutor’s Office, the prosecutors wrote that there is a probable causal link between the vaccination that took place with the drug Astrazeneca and the occurrence of cases of thrombosis.

      There are more steps involved before a final decision is to be reached. The article concludes:

      On the one hand there is therefore the policy of mass vaccination, immediate and without hesitation. On the other hand, there are the judiciary and science that seem to suggest greater caution in implementing such invasive health choices, especially for that segment of the population that is less subject to the risks of Covid.

  22. Student says:

    An interesting article about China’s ban on Australian coal and the relative repercussions either on China or Australian economy, but also in other parts of the world.
    Covid-19 lockdowns can be easily seen from another perspective with all these information.

    • I agree that this is a very interesting article. I found this paragraph particularly interesting:

      China’s authorities assumed that the loss of Australian coal would be made up comfortably by other suppliers and by their own huge reserves. But they were hit by a succession of supply shocks.

      This sounds a whole like the US EIA saying, “While our natural gas supplies are low, we are convinced that we can make up the difference with our abundant and inexpensive coal supplies.” Not likely! Natural gas is our new problem area, if coal is a problem.

      In total, China’s coal imports are way down. “China’s total metallurgical coal imports slumped from 46 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2020 to 26 million between January and July this year.” The article doesn’t really say whether China’s own coal production is down in 2021, but hints that this may be the case.

      Indirectly, the shortage of coal in China seems to be pushing up coal prices in Australia as well, as destinations are changed for coal. The shortage of coal and restrictions on output of steel are pushing up the price of steel. Indirectly, inflation in general is rising.

      With inflation generally rising, I am sure that home building contractors, in addition to Evergrande, are in financial difficulty.

      I am wondering, too, if the restriction on coal imports from Australia was partly to intentionally increase the coal price in China. With increasingly depleted local mines and the higher cost of overland shipment from more distant mines, China really needed a higher coal price to make its own coal profitable (so that mines wouldn’t close). The result was a bigger increase in prices than bargained for. It is rippling through the rest of the economy.

      • That’s partially correct, as mentioned before, China is not scamming for higher coal price in order not to ~close~ mines (old deep shafts) but rather for ~opening~ new surfaces mines with passive heat cooling coal power stations in their eastern deserts incl. long distance HV transmission lines wired towards distant urban areas.

  23. Student says:

    Concerning the current supply chain problems and current and future products shortages, it is interesting to see how current EU green pass have many similarities with ‘CARTA ANNONARIA’.

    This card allowed you in Italy during the second world war to queue to receive rationed food at fixed prices:

    Of course it will not be the only advantage to have citizens with a digital card.
    But now that everyone knows that also vaccinated people can be positive, have Covid and also go to hospital, it is clear to a baby too that green card as no medical or epidemiological reason.
    It is incredible how people’s memory can be so short.

    • Rationing cards / coupons were deployed in most countries during the war, and even lasted few years afterwards for some items.. If you happen to be from a family tree line of usually having kids later in their ~30-40yrs of age – this could be family oral history directly passed from grandparents even up to now (say you were told these stories as kid in the ~1960-80s by the first account adult witness). But for many and in today’s fractured families and societies this is all forgotten “ancient” stuff.. not possible to link any direct connections for present time or likely immediate future..

      That’s why attacking / deleting historical record is one of the strongest weapons of control, e.g. “nowadays” it is completely normal to encounter people talking complete “astro turf” made up histories (about recent events) following the line of new master’s narratives..

  24. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Investors turn bearish on global economy though positioning upbeat – Bank of America survey.

    “Barely a tenth of respondents in a monthly fund manager survey expect a stronger global economy in the coming months, marking the lowest proportion since last April’s initial COVID-19 panic…”

  25. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The left-wing opposition in Norway has won the country’s general election, preliminary results show.

    “Early results indicate the end of the centre-right government’s eight-year rule under Prime Minister Erna Solberg, following a campaign dominated by the future of the oil industry.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “If Labour’s Stoere emerges as prime minister [he has], he will face pressure from his centre-left partners to alter non-member Norway’s extensive participation in the European Union’s single market.”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      It looks like a round of climate virtue-signalling may be in store rather than any government-forced abrupt changes to the oil industry. It might have been different if Labour had to rely on the Green Party to form a government.

      > Norway coalition talks start, with climate and oil in focus

      OSLO, Sept 14 (Reuters) – Norway’s Labour Party began coalition talks with other members of the centre-left bloc on Tuesday seeking to form a government after their parliamentary election victory, with the focus on climate change and oil.

      Labour leader Jonas Gahr Stoere must address voters’ concerns over global warming and a widening wealth gap, while ensuring any transition away from oil production – and the jobs it creates – is gradual.

      He must persuade Centre and the Socialists to compromise on policies ranging from oil and private ownership to non-member Norway’s relations with the European Union.

      In particular, Stoere must persuade them to compromise on energy policy, including where to allow exploration while also cutting emissions.

      “The likely compromise has to do with restricting exploration, and the less explored and matured areas are easier to stop exploration in,” said Baard Lahn, a researcher at Oslo-based climate think-tank CICERO.

      “Also the industry has indicated they are less interested in those areas at the moment. That’s a possible outcome, but exactly what that will look like, there are many possibilities.”

      Norway produces around 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, accounting for over 40% of export revenues.

      But most major parties also believe oil will play a smaller part over time, and hope the engineering know-how of oil firms can be transferred to renewable energy, including offshore wind.

      Monday’s result means Labour neither needs the Marxist Red Party nor the anti-oil Green Party to rule, thus lessening the pressure for big shifts.

      “Labour will not make any dramatic changes to the oil industry,” said Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, an energy analyst at Sparebank 1 Markets.”

      • Norway’s oil, along with everybody else’s) diversifies into a million other products, even after the transport percentage is deducted.

        All those products contribute (in various proportions and levels) to what we have come to regard as a high living standard

        95% of those products, cannot be produced from the output of ‘renewables’. Might be nearer to 100%—someone will no doubt correct me on it.

        Right now, Norway has one of the highest living standards in the world. That living standard is made possible by selling oil, and buying back (or making) all those millions of bits and pieces that can only be obtained through oil usage.

        there is a mismatch between ideology and reality. I know i can’t the only one to have spotted it.

        unless i’m missing something here?

        • Ed says:

          Norman I would be a little more guarded “95% of those products, cannot be made profitably from the output of ‘renewables’ “

          • it was left open to correction either way



            what would you suggest? I still leaves a big hole in the economic system whatever the proportion is.

            Yes–lots of carbon based ‘stuff’ can be extracted from plant life. Unfortunately we all need to eat

            I suggest you read David Mackay: Renewables without the hot air. Mackay was an brain in his business.

            Its free to download, and says what i said far far better than i ever could.

        • There seems to be a lot of wage disparity in Norway. An article I found yesterday talked about the possibility of taxing the rich more and the poor less.

          While Norway is rich, it isn’t as rich as it used to be. The result seems to be a growing number of people who consider their wages inadequate.

          • when you have wage disparity–dissatisfaction is inevitable

          • Ed says:

            I was in Norway a few years ago. It seemed solidly middle class but no sign of upper middle class.

            • Malcopian says:

              I went youth-hostelling in Norway in 1978. It’s such a rainy country that the young people (males and females) wore fashion wellies: wellington boots of different colours – yellow, red. etc. You would see them in shop windows.

      • Slow Paul says:

        I wouldn’t expect any noticable changes. Labour and Conservatives (the latter ruled for the last two terms) are basically the same politics just with different vocabulary/narrative. Centre are interested in de-centralization and protectionism, maybe we will get higher taxes on foreign cheese and that’s it. Socialist party might join in, which would mean more welfare benefits so even less people will be inclined to work.

        • Ed says:

          Talking with an employer n Norway I was told when I know my employees was out partying and drinking and she phone and says she is sick even thought I know she has a hangover all I am allowed to do is say OK hope you are well soon.

        • Jarle says:

          Absurd fact: Our labour leader is a millionaire (inherited money) and as our next prime minister he will earn less than what he pays in taxes.

  26. Mirror on the wall says:

    A huge poll of the constituencies in Britain projects that the SNP would win every single seat in Scotland, and the TP would lose its majority at Westminster, were a GE imminent. TP would be reduced to just 5 seats outside of England, 4 of them on the Welsh borders. (The NI parliament faces outright collapse.)

    > It also predicts that the SNP will win 59 seats.

    The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. However, this might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

    The British Polling Council said: “On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.”

    Find Out Now polled 10,673 GB adults online between 6-8 Sep 2021.

    • There was an interesting comment at Surplus, that the possible combo of energy insecurity (perhaps even blackouts), overall supply chain chaos from Brexit leveraged up even more by the pandemonium, all coming this winter to the UK could flip the Scotland question for good.. Actually, that’s how history preferably rolls, only when dominating center trashes the illusive braking point threshold of legitimacy the wider regional structure resurfaces into independent arrangement again. Interestingly, there could be a delay or pause for the final outcome to materialize, but the minds are already and firmly decided well beforehand.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        It will be interesting to follow the polls through the winter for signs of impending dissipative reformation in UK. Generally the status quo always fairs electorally badly in recessions – and this winter could be that on steroids.

        The poll at the weekend showed that 62% of Scots want a referendum within 5 years, but only 27% within 2 years. Other recent polls have also shown support at over 60%. Nicola said at the weekend that SNP will not call one while c 19 measures are still ongoing. Likely they are wise to bide their time – support for independence itself is on a knife-edge and that could well change. (68% in NI favour a referendum within 5 years or after.)

        > Scottish independence: Six in 10 want indyref2 by 2026, Tory think-tank finds

        As well as the 27% who want the vote held in the next two years, 26% think it should be staged in 2023-24 and 9% say 2025-26 is the right time.

        The total adds up to 62% approval for the question to be asked before this parliament term is out.

      • Good point:

        “only when dominating center trashes the illusive braking point threshold of legitimacy the wider regional structure resurfaces into independent arrangement again”

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        I feel that ‘legitimacy’ is a political construct, it does not actually exist. The supposed conditions for ‘legitimacy’ are relative, varied, fabricated and arguable.

        It seems that there could be an almost mystical approach to ‘legitimacy’ as if it has any objectivity. It is of the realm of ‘ought’, which is entirely imaginary.

        Etymologically it is from ‘lex’ (law), or simply what is lawful, in accordance with the law, which is its literal meaning. Likewise there is no real ‘ought’ to law, which is merely the ordering of power relations by contract.

        Support for the UK or independence is not necessarily conflatable with ‘legitimacy’. It is quite possible to see rule from Westminster as ‘legitimate’ while favouring independence. And vice versa. Indeed, the concept is used vaguely, and it supports various relations between the status quo and the will. ‘It is/ not legitimate because of [X], which I don’t/ like.

        So, it may be rhetorically useful to speak of UK losing ‘legitimacy’, but it amounts to saying that a majority would vote for independence when a referendum took place – for various motives and ‘reasons’.

        And that is ‘consent’ rather than ‘legitimacy’. Consent has no ‘ought’ attached that conflates it with ‘legitimacy’. That would be a fabrication. Of course, ‘liberal democratic’ states do like to feign consent as a basis for ‘legitimacy’.

        It is useful to probe what those motives and reasons are but they cannot simply be reduced to a single motive, a single objective reason that functions as a ‘tipping point’ of ‘legitimacy’. It may be possible to quantify the influence of motives through polls.

        So, I am sceptical of the relevance of the concept of ‘legitimacy’ as disposing the voters to a constitutional shift in the status quo, as it seems fabricated, vague and given to oversimplification – even quasi-mystical, a reification of what are complex motivational dispositions of various wills as a single, preceding ‘thing’ in the outside world.

        In the literal sense of law, Scottish independence would be ‘legitimate’, a lawful fact, after independence, not before it. The fact of legitimacy would not change until after a successful referendum, it would not exist before the referendum as the ‘reason’ of it. And then the dispositions of the voters would inform legitimacy rather than vice versa.

        So, I think that there is a lot that needs unpacking in that idea, as simple and appealing as it might be. ‘Consent’ is a lot clearer and I am inclined to stick with that. There is a danger of all sort of illusion and confusion with ‘legitimacy’.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          ‘Consent’: you want what you want, for whatever reason/s, and you either get what you want or you don’t! LOL If you do then it is ‘legitimate’.

  27. Yoshua says:

    EU has a problem called Depletion

    Total demand up to 141.8 Bcm in first quarter

    EU gas production slumped to just 13.8 Bcm in Q1

    Russian share of EU imports at 45% in Q1

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Europe’s gas shortage could make the whole world pay more to get warm this winter.

      “Natural gas prices have surged more than 35% in the past month, as worries grow there is not enough gas stored up for the winter should temperatures be especially cold in the northern hemisphere.”

      • North of Alps the month of August was already very autumn like..
        Some locales getting sub zero temp (surface) nights etc. If the approaching solarmin theories are correct that’s at least additional 2months of heating season yearly. Natgas price could go crazy in the initial shock sequence when the reality sets in (not necessarily the first “dark” season though)..

      • I can imagine a situation in which Joe Biden says, “Sorry, Europe, the US is going to cut back natural gas exports to what we can afford. We cannot let US natural gas prices go sky high. You buy whatever you can from Russia and from whomever else you can get natural gas from. Some of it is pre-sold under contracts, at fixed prices, so you won’t be able to get it.”

    • Do you have a link?

      Just copy and paste it into the comment.

      Russia has two kinds of exports: Pipeline and LNG. Pipeline is down, but more Russian natural gas may be available as LNG (or not). Spot LNG will likely be high-priced, especially in a shortage situation.

      The US may also be selling spot LNG, but its natural gas exports are quite possibly down as well. Hurricane Ida is affecting production. Hurricane Nicholas, which hit Texas yesterday, could not have helped either.

      Also, production of natural gas from shale wells is not holding up well. This relates to the chronically low prices and shale depletion.

  28. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Chaotic scenes erupted at the headquarters of cash-strapped developer China Evergrande Group on Monday, as roughly 100 disgruntled investors crowded its lobby to demand repayment of loans and financial products…

    “Protesters took it in turns to air grievances and at one point a woman in the crowd collapsed.
    The mood was tense, with protesters attempting unsuccessfully to push through a security line blocking access to lifts.

    “”Evergrande, give us our money back!” they chanted.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Shares in the highly-indebted Chinese property giant Evergrande have plunged after it outlined the extent of its financial problems.

      “The firm said it is struggling to sell assets fast enough to service its massive $305bn (£220bn) of debts.

      “A statement issued by the company also said that its cashflow was under “tremendous pressure”.

      “The announcement came just hours after angry protesters besieged the company’s headquarters in Shenzhen on Monday.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “China’s economy likely slowed further in August, with data on consumption, industrial output and investment due Wednesday to reveal the extent of the damage caused by an outbreak of the delta variant.”

        • Now is the good opportunity again – occasionally worth repeating the “low prob scenario” where the “round eye” global faction ~wins again even in this fairly advanced desperate round, aka China thrown under the bus, the West gets another decade+ of muddling through keeping at least some ground.

          The “investor mindset” juggles many conflicting concepts, the relative decline in the West is indisputably visible and taking many forms and fronts, however any signs of systemic wobble in China could pause the appetite for premature pivoting full throttle in this direction.

          For one thing, lets take the Gulfies – serving as good “weather balloon” proxy, although diversified recently in security and trade arrangements somewhat, it’s still a far cry from full commitment jumping the ship to the other side.

          In other words, fin crash wounded China now would default the scenario from winner taking all hoped trajectory by late 2020s into more like regional (trade-security) grouping (everybody knocked down and impoverished), global agenda turning into balkanization as discussed for years over here, and as Gail finally making it into a topic few posts back.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Explainer: How China Evergrande’s debt troubles pose a systemic risk… Total liability, which include payables [is] 1.97 trillion yuan, accounting for around 2% of the country’s GDP…

        “Late payments could trigger cross-defaults as many financial institutions have exposure to Evergrande via direct loans and indirect holdings through different financial instruments.

        “In the dollar bond market, Evergrande accounts for 4% of Chinese real estate high-yields, according to DBS. Any defaults will also trigger sell-offs in the high-yield credit market.

        “A collapse of Evergrande will have a large impact on the job market. It has 200,000 staff and hires 3.8 million people every year for project developments.”

    • It is hard to believe that the other big property developing companies in China are doing much better.

  29. Malcopian says:

    I found a nice link to some freebie illustrated PDFs on critical subjects:

    I have downloaded “There Were Bombs in the Building” – evidence from 9-11.

    Also available is “The Ground Zero Model • 9/11’s Nuclear Fingerprint”, by nuclear physicist Heinz Pommer. I have already read that and can well recommend it.

    I suggest FE look at “Fukushima Refugees”. I haven’t read that one.

    And there are others.

    • Lastcall says:

      Thanks. Many great subjects.
      Best explanation for the perfect demolition at ground zero I have come across. Nuclear landscaping is something I had not heard of before.

  30. Malcopian says:

    So the 9-11 anniversary has come and gone. Never mind, 9-11 was a fine opportunity to invade Iraq (who didn’t do it) and Afghanistan (who didn’t do it) and restore peace, democracy, prosperity and stability to those poor countries.

    so much of what went on during 9-11 was not covered during the commemorations, but a lot has since been UNcovered. Like the explosions in the basements of the Towers:


    But before William Rodriguez had time to think, coworker Felipe David stormed into the basement office with severe burns on his face and arms, screaming for help and yelling “explosion! explosion! explosion!”

    David had been in front of a nearby freight elevator on sub-level 1 about 400 feet from the office when fire burst out of the elevator shaft, causing his injuries.

    “He was burned terribly,” said Rodriguez. “The skin was hanging off his hands and arms. His injuries couldn’t have come from the airplane above, but only from a massive explosion below. I don’t care what the government says, what scientists say. I saw a man burned terribly form a fire that was caused from an explosion below.

    “I know there were explosives placed below the trade center. I helped a man to safety who is living proof, living proof the government story is a lie and a cover-up…

    “I disagree 100% with the government story, ” said Rodriguez. “I met with the 9/11 Commission behind closed doors and they essentially discounted everything I said regarding the use of explosives to bring down the north tower.”

  31. Yoshua says:


    “Goodbye to the controversial chemist who won the Nobel Prize for inventing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and ushering in the genomic era, while being an LSD-dropping, climate-change-denying, astrology-believing surfer, with a penchant for women and wine.

    It is midnight, deep in the woods, and “at the far end of the path, under a fir tree, there was something glowing … It seemed to be a raccoon … The raccoon spoke. ‘Good evening, doctor,’ it said. I said something back, I don’t remember what, probably, ‘hello’.”

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Here is the dipshit

    Surprised he’s not crying

    • Article starts out:

      Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau on Monday appeared to taunt angry protesters who attempted to drown out a planned interview in British Columbia, by asking them if there was “a hospital you should be going to bother right now?”

  33. Pingback: Inattentional Blindness

  34. Lastcall says:

    Israeli Ministry of Health (right) recorded saying to the Minister of Interior (left) “there is no medical or epidemiological justification for the Covid passport, it is only intended to pressure the unvaccinated to vaccinate

  35. Lastcall says:

    This was a comment from

    ‘Another interesting point: Once the unspeakable “Health Passes” were instituted here in France, posters were hung outside establishments co-operating with the program, on which were basic instructions as to what was required to gain entry. Quickly, however, intrepid skeptics noticed the date of publication in fine print on the lower left of the posters: September 2019. And this jibes, of course, with the link in the above article of the meeting in Brussels in the fall of 2019 already planning “pandemic” strategies…. Which also jibes with the Gates/WHO/CIA/Johns Hopkins “simulation” Event 201 in October of 2019, and the US Army War College’s “pandemic drill” around the same time . . .



    ‘It is also not irrelevant to note that, in France, which 20 years ago had the highest-rated medical care system in the world, the authorities have been reducing the number of hospital beds by the hundreds of thousands, and ICU beds by the hundreds, for at least the past 10 years. As if this wasn’t bad enough, even after the “first wave” of Covid, during which we were told to be afraid, very afraid because the hospitals “were overwhelmed with cases,” the Macron government continued to reduce the number of beds!’

    • Good point! There is a whole lot that makes the pandemic appear to be a planned effort to hide a major financial problem.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That is an excellent paper in terms of the chronology of events preceding Covid … however it fails to recognize the root cause of the problem… we ran out of cheap energy….

        The author fails to provide a reasonable explanation for the vaccine roll out….

        This is not a ‘reorganization’…. any more than it is a reset…. but if one is unaware of the energy problems… then that leaves one struggling to see the Big Picture.

        This is … the CEP….

      • Mike Roberts says:

        Do you mean that the virus appears to be such a planned effort? Once it was released, a pandemic was inevitable. However, countries (e.g. UK and Denmark) are starting to lift all restrictions to get BAU moving again, so why would they do that?

        Mind you, the idea that SARS-CoV-2 is “a pathogen that targets almost exclusively the unproductive (over 80s)” is a failed narrative. It’s nowhere near “exclusive” and, with new variants, is targeting younger people more. Nor were all over 80s unproductive. Also, “recovering” from the virus only means that the person is not shedding virus but they may have long term symptoms. I’m not sure about some of the other data (e.g. a 99% recovery rate – that may be true but there is no link to confirm how that figure was derived).

        • Xabier says:

          No, Mike, restrictions are NOT being lifted here in the UK.

          In fact it is crystal clear that we are about to be thrown back into the masks and lock-down nightmare once more.

          Squeeze, release – that’s the procedure here, until the self-evident Plan is fulfilled.

          • Mike Roberts says:

            Hmm. This, as an example, is on a government web page:

            All businesses and venues, including nightclubs and adult entertainment venues, are able to open. All capacity limits at sporting, entertainment, or business events have been lifted.

            Hospitality venues such as pubs, restaurants and bars are no longer required to provide table service or follow other social distancing rules.

            Why do you think restriction are still in force? Or have I misunderstood you? Of course, the government still have guidelines but legal restrictions have been lifted or greatly reduced, as far as I’m aware (and I am in touch with friends and relatives there).

    • Tim Groves says:

      Yes,excellent info. It’s a plandemic, scripted and plotted out years ahead of time.
      But don’t tell the normies or the dunkies or they will hate you for it.

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Unvaxxed pupils being bullied, rows tearing families apart

    See the image… ouch!

  37. Bei Dawei says:

    As of today, the USA officially has more than one-half (!) of all the world’s current Covid-19 cases. (9,366,319 out of 18,691,606)

    USA! USA!

    Of course it is possible to doubt these numbers to a certain extent, but still… Really, Americans, there is no excuse for this. The USA is not a poor country.

    Glad you asked. Taiwan has 235 current cases. (No discharges from the hospital have been listed for a week now–I wonder if they only release those numbers once a week now?)

    What does this tell us about which policies are more effective? Or is it all smoke and mirrors from Davos / the Bilderbergers?

    • hillcountry says:

      Multiple Vaccinations and the Enigma of Vaccine Injury

      Mawson and Croft

      Vaccines (Basel) 2020, Dec; 8(4): 676

      • Fast Eddy says:

        mike… just ignore all this stuff and I’ll get you my health number so you can add my two shots to your injection schedule… MORE is GOOD.

      • Lastcall says:

        From the body of the article we see;

        ‘Other concerns of stakeholders related to vaccines include the absence of studies on the health outcomes of fully vaccinated versus partially vaccinated and unvaccinated children; the paucity of studies on the immunization schedule itself; the lack of information on the effects of multiple vaccinations given at a single visit [26]; and whether vaccines could be contributing to the unexplained increases in the rates of allergy, asthma, and neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs)…..’

        ‘ NDDs were defined as having one or more of the following: A physician diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or a learning disability. A sample of 666 children was obtained, of which 261 (39%) were unvaccinated.

        The vaccinated were significantly less likely than the unvaccinated to have been diagnosed with chickenpox and pertussis; they were, however, significantly more likely to have been diagnosed with:

        Allergic rhinitis (Odds Ratio: 30.1; 95% Confidence Interval: 4.1, 219.3);

        Eczema (OR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.4, 6.1);

        A middle ear infection (OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.1, 6.6);

        Pneumonia (OR: 5.9; 95% CI: 1.8, 19.7);

        An NDD (OR: 3.7; 95% CI: 1.7, 7.9).

        The vaccinated were also more likely to have used allergy medication (20% vs. 1.2%, p < 0.001; OR: 21.5; 95% CI: 6.7, 68.9), been fitted with ventilation ear tubes (3.0% vs. 0.4%, p = 0.018; OR: 8.0; 95% CI: 1.0, 66.1), and spent one or more nights in a hospital (19.8% vs. 12.3%, p = 0.012; OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.7). Between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated children, partially vaccinated children had intermediate odds of diagnosis with allergic rhinitis, eczema, and NDD, suggesting a dose–response relationship between vaccinations and these adverse effects.'

        The convid Injection has just turbocharged these effects. Vaccines have always been a boondoggle following beguilement of the population with fear mongering.

      • I know that at one time, autism organizations were concerned about the safety of injecting several vaccines into fairly tiny (week old) babies at the same time. They were concerned about the heavy metals being used as preservatives, if I remember correctly.

    • hillcountry says:


      A growing number of vaccines are administered at the same time or in close succession, increasing the complexity of assessing vaccine safety. Individual vaccines are assumed to have no other effect than protection against the targeted pathogen, but vaccines also have nonspecific and interactive effects, the outcomes of which can be beneficial or harmful. To date, no controlled trials and very few observational studies have determined the impact of vaccination schedules on overall health. The balance of the risks and benefits from mass vaccination therefore remains uncertain.

      Recent studies worryingly suggest links between multiple vaccinations and increased risks of diverse multisystem health problems, including allergies, infections, and neuropsychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders.

      Here, we propose that, in susceptible persons, multiple vaccinations activate the retinoid cascade and trigger apoptotic hepatitis, leading to cholestatic liver dysfunction, in which stored vitamin A compounds (retinyl esters and retinoic acid) enter the circulation in toxic concentrations; this induces endogenous forms of hypervitaminosis A, with the severity of adverse outcomes being directly proportional to the concentration of circulating retinoids.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It amazes me that people would inject something into their body that has not been tested.

        Not only that… they mix and match… and change the injection schedule on a whim…

        And then … when governments tell them oh – it doesnt stop you from getting covid .. and it maybe works but only for a short time — you’ll have to take ‘waves of boosters’…

        The only question they have is .. when can I get the booster?

        Baaaah … Baaaaah…. f789ing IDIOTS!!!

    • NomadicBeer says:

      And the fascists made the trains run on time, because after all that is the ONLY thing that matters, right Bei?

      A person that was not a member of a cult would wonder why the US has such a high number of cases, much more than most African countries, especially those that use Ivermectin? Why does the US govt pays for each Covid case, and more for each Covid death, but it still does not cover other, much bigger issues? After all, medical problems was (and probably still is) the largest cause of bankruptcy.

      And if you remember those same African countries still have better numbers than the magic Taiwan.

      Now cover your ears and start going “lalalala” in 1, 2, 3…

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Come now, Taiwan is hardly a fascist country.

        I remember us discussing Africa before. One of the countries that came up was Tanzania. Well, it looks like they’ve been covering up their Covid-19 cases:

        • Tim Groves says:

          Based on the figures, Taiwan is doing very well, as is PRC. Other East Asian countries are not doing quite so well. South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam are all experiencing spikes just now. I have no explanation for this apart from higher vitamin D synthesis from the ample summer sunshine, a lot less obesity, and in the case of China and Taiwan something they put in the jiaozi, but all of the East Asian countries seem to have modest rates of Covid-19 compared with those decadent Europeans and North Americans.

          • DB says:

            I have twice before noted in detail that Taiwan’s lower case rate is related to the lower cycle threshold used there for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing — much lower than almost everywhere else in the world. Funny how some continue to ignore this.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Mea culpa! I confess I have not been reading every post you and other commentators have made here, and I expect that most other people don’t read them all, detailed notes notwithstanding.

              This may come as a shock to your ego, but I’m here to enlighten you that nobody else is anywhere near as interested in what you write as you are, so we don’t always catch things even if you say them twice.

              But thanks for the recap that Taiwan’s lower case rate is related to the lower cycle threshold used there for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing.

              This is counterintuitive to me because based on my limited reading on the subject of PCR testing, I would have thought that a lower cycle threshold would yield a higher (not a lower) case rate?

              Can anyone else chime in on this? Is DB correct that a lower cycle threshold yields a lower case rate, or does he have this basic premise it backwards?

            • I think DB is right. A higher number of cycles increases the magnification. Quite often, “cases” that are found with a higher number of cycles never develop antibodies. There is some doubt that these cases are true COVID cases. They could, instead by a case of the common cold or a fragment of a virus, that was mistaken for COVID.

            • Tim Groves says:

              After several cups of tea, I think I’ve finally got it! DB is correct and I’m not firing on all cylinders today.

              And thanks Gail for pointing it out.

              Next question: does this mean there is more Covid-19 in Taiwan than the tests are indicating? OR does it mean that there is less Covid-19 in a lot of other places than the tests are indicating?

            • Perhaps some of both.

            • DB says:

              I apologize, Tim. I meant to reply to Bei Dawei. I’ve twice replied directly to his prior comments about Taiwan’s low prevalence. Perhaps he keeps missing my comments (and links to sources underlying them).

              The false negative rate, even at 25 cycles, is probably quite low, so few “genuine” cases are missed at that level. A more reasonable cutoff for clinical work would probably be closer to 20. This is all guesswork on my part, because those who have evaluated PCR for COVID haven’t reported their results in a way that allow direct calculation of false positive and false negative rates. In some of the prior studies of PCR for SARS-CoV-2 that I’ve cited before, the distribution of positives is skewed such that the rate of positives “detected” increases with each subsequent cycle, especially after many (30+) cycles have been run.

              Reiner Fuellmich’s legal group in Germany has focused on PCR as the linchpin that holds the whole COVID farce/tragedy together. I think they’re right — without PCR (and the loose COVID-specific applications of it), none of the totalitarianism and hysteria could have gotten off the ground.

  38. Mirror on the wall says:

    Judge Kaplan today dismissed uncle Andy’s claim that he has not been properly served with legal papers. The ‘Prince’ sent in lawyers infamous for defending obviously guilty s/x offenders. Kaplan does not seem minded to put up with any ‘royal’ nonsense and the court will reconvene on October 13 for him to do his job. ‘Strike one.’

    > Federal Judge Skewers Lawyer for Prince Andrew for Making Service ‘More Complicated’ Than It Is

    Prince Andrew has disputed that the woman accusing him of sexually abusing her as a 17-year-old girl served him properly with a lawsuit. That argument appeared to land poorly federal in court on Monday, when a federal judge signaled that this is a losing battle.

    “You have a pretty high degree of certainty that he can be served sooner than later,” U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan told the prince’s lawyer during a telephone conference. Let’s cut out all the technicalities and get to the substance,” he added.

    With that remark, the judge made clear that ducking service is not likely to be a successful gambit to avoid a lawsuit by Virginia Giuffre, one of the most outspoken victims of the now-deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

    “I’m sure you know that the Hague Convention is optional,” Kaplan told Brettler, adding that he can order service effected upon a foreign national under Federal Rule 4(f)(3) of the United States code.

    That rule offers wide latitude for serving a foreign person “by other means not prohibited by international agreement, as the court orders.”

    Judge Kaplan indicated that he would likely grant that order and is “unlikely” to change his mind on that front.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Judge Kaplan: ‘You complain that you have not been served properly? I will have you served properly, don’t you worry!’

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The case is liable to publicly test whether UK courts apply the law to ‘royals’. (A default judgement may be made against him anyway, if he refuses to appear before the USA court and the UK court does not force him to.)

      > Prince Andrew could be forced by a UK court to present evidence in Virginia Giuffre’s bombshell sex assault US lawsuit if he continues to ‘dodge and duck’ the case, according to a lawyer who has represented victims of paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

      Under the Convention on the Taking of Evidence Abroad in Civil or Commercial Matters – or the Hague Evidence Convention – English courts will assist US courts to obtain oral and documentary evidence from witnesses who are resident in England and Wales.

      In England and Wales, the Evidence Act 1975, the Civil Procedure Rules and the Hague Convention authorise the High Court to make an order for an individual resident in England and Wales to produce evidence or documents for use in foreign civil or commercial proceedings.

      Asked who would be required to force the duke to sit in a US court, Ms Bloom said: ‘It would be a UK court that would be enforcing the cooperation agreement between the US and the UK, just as in my country if a witness is needed for a case in England they are required to cooperate. You have to jump through some hoops, you have to submit some paperwork and affidavits and so forth, but eventually witnesses and people who are sued need to comply.’

  39. Ed says:

    Russia and China do natural gas sales by long term (20 years) fixed price contracts. It seems the EU like to buy on the spot market regardless of price. Why is this?

    • There was a surprising downswing in renewables output earlier this year because of uncooperating weather patterns.. and you can’t run IC reliably on it (incl. ~stable energy pricing levels) hence that energy spot price spikes in the specific sector of rapid spooling nat gas power stations on reserve to keep the grid working.

      And why it was allowed to happen in the first place? Well, it’s a sequential combination of bad judgement, maniacal hubris, greed, bad luck, .. moreover (as usual) in final stages these tend to all gang bang on you at once..

      Basically, the W-elites spent past several decades in dreamy sequence of systemic inaction allowed for chiefly by central banking print propping up consumerism, also inrush of revenue from global trade and new (post 1989/91) and old colonies etc. To be fair at least some of the Euros at least built fast rail and bike lines, ah. But at the same time they prematurely retired their best ponies (NPPs) so reaping negative balance overall for sure..

    • Although Gail had voiced repeatedly negative opinion on this option, it well could be the beginning of yet another giga spike (brief and very “last”) in energy prices before true deflationary (and or merely disorderly) collapse sets in.. Perhaps it won’t manifest in oil price again but only in gas and few other lesser channels instead..

      • It is a lot easier for natural gas prices to spike than oil prices. I can easily believe a spike in natural gas prices and in electricity prices. Flow of both natural gas and electricity is a very local thing. If it is missing, prices likely spike, in order to try to get supply from elsewhere.

        Also, China was able to get its coal prices to rise by cutting off a lot of its imports.

        Oil is closely tied in with food production. A rise in oil prices leads to an increase in food prices. (So do many other things, including supply chain disruptions, as we are seeing now.) It might be possible to get a spike in oil prices, but it is hard to see it go on for very long.

        • Thanks for the answer as well for the excellent article.

          The issue I have with the (correct) observation of natural gas being more local thing is that at present it’s rather combined effect of many such “regional” demand and price dislocations combined which results in global hunger for natgas.

          The first world is using it to supplement renewables when phasing out coal and NPPs, the Asians went for the (initial) price discount and sea port hub convenience of natgas, and the third world was pressed into it by the IMF/UN advisory nexus (as well as the promised low-er price)..

  40. Ed says:

    WP arrgh

    I posted this but it does not show

    Went to NYC yesterday. Massive car traffic on the roads on a Sunday afternoon.

    Washington Square Park jam packed with people

    Restaurants packed

  41. Yoshua says:

    Lidia, India did antibody tests and found that 70% of population, or 1 Billion people in India have antibodies against Covid.

    The inventor of the PCR test, didn’t actually invent it. A hologram of talking racoon appeared for him and told him how to construct the PCR test. True story.

    • Ed says:

      this is excellent thank you for posting it.

      1000 pages!!!! I guess the nights are loooong.

    • Ed says:

      27.8 Final summary

      Current thinking is that global industrial businesses will replace a complex industrial ecosystem that took more than a century to build. The current system was built with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of energy the world has ever known (oil), in cheap abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and seemingly unlimited mineral resources. This replacement is hoped to be done at a time when there is
      comparatively very expensive energy, a fragile finance system saturated in debt, not enough minerals, and an unprecedented world population, embedded in a deteriorating natural environment.

      Most challenging of all, this has to be done within a few decades. It is the authors opinion that this will not go according to plan.

      For added amusement this appears on page 666 of the report.

    • Ed says:

      The Finns are as blunt as our own Norwegian.

      The strategic tasks before us now are all enormous in scale and individually unprecedented, and include:
      • Rebuild the fossil fuel energy system and supporting infrastructure in a few decades
      • Mitigate climate change
      • Rehabilitate arable land that has been degraded with improper application of industrial agriculture, by reestablishing the soil food web in whole geographical regions.
      • Remove plastic pollution from the ocean
      • Reverse ocean acidification
      • Revegetate large regions of the planet, to reestablish the natural biodiversity of flora and fauna.

      Additionally, we are required to address these challenges in a 20 – 50 year time frame. To do this, a reliable energy source that is available to most of the human population with an ERoEI ratio of something like 50:1 is required. Even existing fossil fuels are not effective enough, as they are now. Renewable technology on its own is not enough to meet these requirements. Something radically new is required.

      If society is to continue to function at current levels, then all problem solvers, innovators, inventors, researchers, engineers, scientists, and artists of all kinds, are now required to imagine a new kind world with a novel approach to industrialization. At this time, so called “out of the box thinking” is urgently required.

      • eKnock says:

        In other words…….it ain’t gonna happen.

        • Ed says:

          Greta weeps

        • adonis says:

          unless their plan is a massive depopulation using the vaccine as a trojan horse for the delayed death needle

          • Replenish says:

            I sent one of my older vaccinated friends an NIH award funded medical study on of the sufficiency of mRNA informed consent disclosures to warn of worsening clinical disease on challenge by the virus. One of his 70+ aged vaccinated friends is recovering from a bad case of C-19 pneumonia. Another one of our friends just lost one of his senior colleagues.. a 40-something woman, sudden stroke with no known health issues.

            Reports of sudden strokes and heart attacks in the otherwise healthy (ages 40-70) and severe breakthrough cases (age 70+) are becoming common among both the skeptics and vaccinated here in Pennsylvania. In the height of the pandemic, reports of virus deaths in middle age people were common here in the MSM but no official mention of sudden deaths being attributed to the vaccines.

            Websites with personal testimonies of post-vaccination menstrual irregularities were being dismissed as disinformation until enough women spoke out. Yahoo news reports that an NIH study is being launched to investigate menstrual and fertility issues related to the vaccines.

            My observation is that government decision-makers, health authorities and the MSM are way behind the curve on adverse reactions and second order effects.

    • This is “Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels” by Simon Michaux. He references my work in several places in the report.

      This is a link to an 8-page summary:

  42. Sam says:

    Does any of the u.s gas go overseas? I am seeing a lot of coal cars on east coast and west coast pretty sure that is going to China

    • US LNG definitely goes overseas. The US exported 61.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas as LNG in 2020. A BP schedule shows precisely where this went. Of this,

      Central and So. America, plus Mexico 8.0 bcm
      Europe 25.6 bcm
      Middle East and Africa 1.3 bcm
      Asia Pacific 26.4 bcm

      There is also natural gas trade with Mexico and Canada via pipeline. The US is a net importer of natural gas from Canada, with a gain of 46.6 billion cubic meters.

      The US is a pipeline exporter of natural gas to Mexico, amounting to 68.2 billion cubic meters.

      Thus, on a net basis, the US exports 21.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

      US natural gas production in 2020 is given as 914.6 billion cubic meters. Thus, the US is a net exporter of about 9% of its natural gas.

      With respect to coal, the US exported 1.62 exajoules of coal and it imported 0.14 exajoules of coal. Thus, on a net basis, the US exported 1.48 exajoules of coal in 2020. US coal production in 2020 was 10.71 exajoules, so about 13.8% of coal was exported in 2020.

      US coal production was at its highest level in 2008 at 25.69 exajoules (when coal prices were high, similar to oil prices). Coal production in 2020, at 10.71 exajoules, only amounted to 42% of the 2008 peak coal production.

  43. adonis says:

    In conclusion, this report suggests that replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system (oil, gas, and coal), using
    renewable technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, will not be possible for the entire global human
    population. There is simply just not enough time, nor resources to do this by the current target set by the World’s
    most influential nations. What may be required, therefore, is a significant reduction of societal demand for all
    resources, of all kinds. This implies a very different social contract and a radically different system of governance to
    what is in place today. Inevitably, this leads to the conclusion that the existing renewable energy sectors and the EV
    technology systems are merely steppingstones to something else, rather than the final solution. It is recommended
    that some thought be given to this and what that something else might be.

  44. Yoshua says:

    Tim, we don’t know this virus. What do the Chinese know after studying the virus for a decade?

    The polio vaccine is a live virus, but a harmless variant of the virus. When injected into a human, it now and then resembles it self like a Terminator and causes a polio outbreak. No one knows why virus do this.
    Sars-Cov-2 could be a fairly harmless variant, that the Chinese tried to make into a live virus vaccine. We don’t know if this virus one day starts resemble it self into Terminator, simultaneously in different parts of the world.
    Polio outbreaks count to 100,000 people. This virus has infected at least 1 Billion people in a year and a half. Have a little respect for this virus.

    • Yoshua, I would look into how such “infection” numbers are achieved: the PCR test, the inventor of which said it wasn’t suitable for such a purpose, and who called Fauci (if not one of the architects of this scheme, then one of its chief handmaidens, à la Nurse Ratchid) a liar who doesn’t know anything about science or medicine.

      Have a little respect for Dr. Mullis.

  45. Ed says:

    Was in NYC yesterday. Massive car traffic on the roads. Massive crowds in Washington Square Park. Packed streets of restaurants. I think the motto is “give us your upper middle class masses yearning to party”.

  46. Mirror on the wall says:

    Russia has plenty of customers for its LNS. It does not have to send any to the EU if it does not want to.

    USA is pressurising the EU to muck Russia about. I do not know where the EU thinks that it would make up the 45% of its LNS imports that it gets from Russia.

    And Ukraine has got some front, insisting that Russia must send its LNS through that territory so that they can take a toll price. It is using EU and USA to get a free lunch off Russia.

    Russia has been very patient with EU. It seems to have much friendlier relations with Asia. I would not be overly surprised if Russia simply cut off the EU entirely at some point.

    • Alex says:

      “I would not be overly surprised if Russia simply cut off the EU entirely at some point.”

      That would be very unwise, therefore Russia won’t do it. A cornered rat is dangerous.

  47. Mirror on the wall says:

    This Bloomberg article from last month focuses on the global picture for oil supply.

    IEA (and green activism) has discouraged capital investment in the expansion of gas production. At the same time, countries are relying on more gas use to reduce their carbon, so demand is going up. Permanent shortage follows. Gas prices are up in Europe, Asia and America. Most global gas consumption is in Asia, and that proportion will rise. The global economy is headed for an energy crisis rather than an energy transition. It will undermine profitability and boost inflation, and household utility bills will be higher. All of that was predictable since the IEA report turned against new gas (and oil) investment earlier this year. I would only add that it likely remains to be seen when this energy ‘strategy’ will precipitate global economic and financial collapse.

    > The Era of Cheap Natural Gas Ends as Prices Surge by 1,000%

    High prices seen sticking as demand jumps amid weak supplies / Energy transition’s focus on gas to impact global economy

    The era of cheap natural gas is over, giving way to an age of far more costly energy that will create ripple effects across the global economy.

    Natural gas, used to generate electricity and heat homes, was abundant and cheap during much of the last decade amid a boom in supply from the U.S. to Australia. That came crashing to a halt this year as demand drastically outpaced new supply. European gas rates reached a record this week, while deliveries of the liquefied fuel to Asia are near an all-time high for this time of year.

    With few other options, the world is expected to depend more on cleaner-burning gas as a replacement to coal to help achieve near-term green goals. But as producers curb investments into new supply amid calls from climate-conscious investors and governments, it is becoming apparent that expensive energy is here to stay.

    “No matter how you look at it, gas will be the transition fuel for decades to come as major economies are committed to reach carbon emission targets,” said Chris Weafer, chief executive officer of Moscow-based Macro-Advisory Ltd. “The price of gas is more likely to stay elevated over the medium-term and to rise over the longer-term.”

    Strong Consumption

    By 2024, demand is forecast to jump 7% from pre-Covid-19 levels, according to the International Energy Agency. Looking further out, the appetite for liquefied natural gas is expected to grow by 3.4% a year through 2035, outpacing other fossil fuels, according to an analysis by McKinsey & Co.

    Surging natural gas prices means it will be costlier to power factories or produce petrochemicals, rattling every corner of the global economy and fueling inflation fears. For consumers, it will bring higher monthly energy and gas utility bills. It will cost more to power a washing machine, take a hot shower and cook dinner.

    It’s especially bad news for poorer nations like Pakistan and Bangladesh that reworked entire energy policies on the premise that the fuel’s price would be lower for longer.

    European natural gas rates have surged more than 1,000% from a record low in May 2020 due to the pandemic, while Asian LNG rates have jumped about six-fold in the last year. Even prices in the U.S., where the shale revolution has significantly boosted production of the fuel, have rallied to the highest level for this time of year in a decade.

    While there are several one-off factors that have pushed gas prices higher, such as supply disruptions, the global economic rebound and a lull in new LNG export plants, there is a growing consensus that the world is facing a structural shift, driven by the energy transition.

    …. Ordinarily, robust demand would encourage a rush of investment in fresh export facilities. But a big factor in higher gas prices is a lack of fresh capital to increase supply. Growing anti-gas sentiment and heightened scrutiny of dirty methane emissions has stalled projects and forced energy majors to rethink plans. The IEA, which heralded natural gas as a bridge fuel to a low carbon future, drew widespread attention earlier this year when it said investments in new upstream fields need to stop if the world wants to hit net-zero emissions by 2050.

    Without new investment, LNG consumption in Asia — the engine for future gas demand growth — will outstrip supply by 160 millions tons in 2035, according to WoodMac’s Thompson. For comparison, Asia imported about 250 million tons of LNG last year.

    …. Mark Gyetvay, the deputy chief executive officer of Russian LNG exporter Novatek PJSC, warns that the green movement could disrupt the delivery of adequate and affordable supply to consumers.

    “The lack of capital investments in future natural gas projects does not lead us to an energy transition, but instead leads us down an inevitable path toward an energy crisis,” said Gyetvay.

    • Bloomberg follows the standard belief system about natural gas. They believe that there is a lot of it available. We will be able to pump it out when needed. In fact, the whole system needs to be operating well enough to make extraction profitable. Some of the natural gas extracted is a by-product of oil extraction. If the oil is unprofitable, both oil and natural gas production will likely be stopped.

      Natural gas prices are terribly unstable. This makes it hard for companies to plan to produce them.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        That makes sense.

      • Ed says:

        New York States entire electric plan is based on unlimited amounts of natural gas. What could go wrong?

        Two of the newly built electric generator plants sit ideal because the court system will not allow the pipeline shipment of radioactive frack natural gas. What could go wrong?

      • Alex says:

        The intermediate goal seems to be to use natgas as a replacement for waning oil and coal production wherever possible. Gas is being rebranded as semigreen and given the advantage of lower carbon indulgences. More widespread use could stabilize its price in the future.

    • MM says:

      Yeah, sure. If the IEA only commanded be more gas online at the beginnning of the year it would be here right now.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        The slump in capital investment is without effect? How does that work?

        “While there are several one-off factors that have pushed gas prices higher, such as supply disruptions, the global economic rebound and a lull in new LNG export plants, there is a growing consensus that the world is facing a structural shift, driven by the energy transition.”

        • MM says:

          Nobody is investing in LNG nowhere:

          I estimate such a site takes about 3 years to complete.


          Of course, when Bloomberg or the IEA says, you should not invest in gas, everybody immediately writes off his projects.

          The whole Iran BS is about gas.

          The gas will become green of course like in blue hydrogen.

          I bet some people in business know very well that the show will not run without gas. Mr. Smil wrote a whole book about gas being the fuel for the 21st century.

          A gas fired power plant has an etimated life time of 40 years. You think all these built in the last years will just close – poof?

          Ok, let’s assume the world energy transition will take 20 years, started at 2020. Pretty strange that the market gets problems when we are in year 1.

          As mercola and Marc Faber said it right:
          “There is no more truth to be found”

          The second most important thing for people to know after the exponential function is Hegelian dialectics.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            “Nobody is investing in LNG nowhere”

            Your link does not support that. And the IEA report says otherwise, although spending is down.

            No one is saying that IEA and green activism are the only factors in the dearth of capital investment. But:

            “The fossil fuel financial divestment movement is gathering pace, removing some $14.5 trillion from the sector.”

            There can be more than one adequate cause for something happening, which is worth bearing in mind. It is not necessarily easy to entangle and quantify the influence of either in a definitive manner.

            If you are saying that Bloomberg does not cover all of the issues, then I would obviously agree with that. Gail has explained issues of systemic profitability going forward. That not does mean that green activism is having no effect.

            Please do explain the relevance of Hegel.

            • The reason for the divestment from fossil fuels has nothing to do with CO2. It has everything with prices being too low, year in and year out. The interest in Green energy is because it is heavily subsidized. It looks like Green Energy can make a profit, when nothing else can. (The subsidy of “going first” is huge. Green Energy is not a stand-alone product.) If it happens to be available when it is needed, it sometimes can substitute for fuel, such as coal or natural gas. Other times it substitutes for nuclear, with no clear savings at all.

              We have been lied to about the usefulness and the true cost of Green Energy. Its cost is high, but its benefit to the system is close to nothing.

            • Kowalainen says:

              “but its benefit to the system is close to nothing”

              Well, they can be used to save some water in the hydro power reservoirs.

              Plus the fake jobs and ‘green’ hopiates.

              Which is marginally worse than any fossil fueled racket of the day.

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