Many countries have assumed that natural gas imports will be available for balancing electricity produced by intermittent wind and solar, whenever they are needed. The high natural gas import prices recently being encountered in Europe, and especially in the UK, appear to be an indication of an underlying problem. Could the world already be hitting natural gas limits?
One reason few people expect a problem with natural gas is because of the immense quantities reported as proven reserves. For all countries combined, these reserves at December 31, 2020 were equal to 48.8 times world natural gas production in 2020. Thus, in theory, the world could continue to produce natural gas at the current rate for almost 50 years, without even trying to find more natural gas resources.
Ratios of natural gas reserves to production vary greatly by country, giving a hint that the indications may be unreliable. High reserves make an exporting country appear to be dependable for many years in the future, whether or not this is true.
As I see the issue, these reserves are unlikely to be produced unless world oil prices rise to a level close to double what they are today and stay at such a high level for several years. I say this because the health of the oil and gas industries are closely intertwined. Of the two, oil has historically been the major profit-maker, enabling adequate funds for reinvestment. Prices have been too low for oil producers for about eight years now, cutting back on investment in new fields and export capability. This low-price issue is what seems to be leading to limits to the natural gas supply, as well as a limit to the oil supply.
In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved. In some ways, a dire situation already seems to be developing.
[1] Taking a superficial world view, natural gas seems to be doing fairly well. It is only when a person starts analyzing some of the pieces that problems start to become clear.
Figure 3 shows that natural gas supply has been rising, year after year. There was a brief dip in 2009, at the time of the Great Recession, and a slightly larger dip in 2020, related to COVID-19 restrictions. Overall, production has been growing at a steady rate. Compared to oil and coal, the recent growth pattern of natural gas has been more stable.
The quantity of exports of natural gas tends to be much more variable. Figure 4 compares inter-regional trade for coal and natural gas. Here, I have ignored local trade and only considered trade among fairly large blocks of countries, such as North America, Europe and Russia combined with its close affiliates.
If a person looks closely at the growth of natural gas imports in Figure 4, it becomes clear that growth in natural gas is a feast or famine proposition, given to upward spurts, dips and flat periods. It is my understanding that in the early years, natural gas was typically traded under long-term contracts, on a “take or pay” basis. The price was often tied to the oil price. This generous pricing structure allowed natural gas exports to grow rapidly in the 2000 to 2008 period. The Great Recession cut back the need for natural gas imports and also led to downward pressure on the pricing of exports.
After the Great Recession, natural gas import prices tended to fall below oil prices (Figure 5) except in Japan, where stability of supply is very important. Another change was that an increasing share of exported natural gas was sold in the “spot” market. These prices fluctuate depending on changes in supply and demand, making them much more variable.
Looking back at Figure 4, natural gas exports were close to flat between 2011 and 2016. Such flat exports, together with falling export prices in the 2013 to 2016 period (Figure 5), would have been a nightmare for oil and gas companies doing long-range planning for oil exports. Exports spurted upward in the 2016 to 2019 period, and then fell back in 2020 (Figure 4). All of the volatility in the growth rate of required new production, combined with uncertainty of the pricing of exports, reduced interest in planning for projects that would increase natural gas export capability.
[2] In 2021, quite a number of countries seem to be ramping up natural gas imports at the same time. This is likely one issue leading to the spiking spot prices in Europe for natural gas.
Now that the economy is recovering from the effects of COVID-19, Europe is trying to ramp up its natural gas imports, probably to a level above the import level in 2019. Figure shows that both China and Other Asia Pacific are also likely to be ramping up their imports, providing a great deal of competition for imports.
It is no surprise that China’s natural gas imports are rising rapidly. With China’s rapid economic growth, it needs energy resources of whatever kinds it can obtain. Natural gas is cleaner-burning than coal. The CO2 emitted when burning natural gas is lower, as well. (These climate benefits may be partially or fully offset by methane lost in shipping natural gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG), however.)
In Figure 6, the sudden appearance and rapid rise of Other Asia Pacific imports can be explained by the fact that this figure shows the net indications for a combination of natural gas importers (including South Korea, India, and Taiwan) and exporters (including Malaysia and Indonesia). In recent years, natural gas import growth has greatly exceeded export growth. It would not be surprising if this rapid rise continues, since this part of the world is one that has been increasing its manufacturing in recent years.
If anyone had stepped back to analyze the situation in 2019, it would have been clear that, in the near future, natural gas exports would need to be rising extremely rapidly to meet the needs of all of the importers simultaneously. The dip in Europe’s natural gas imports due to COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 temporarily hid the problem. Now that Europe is trying to get back to normal, there doesn’t seem to be enough to go around.
[3] Apart from the United States, it is hard to find a part of the world where natural gas exports are rapidly rising.
Russia+ is by far the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Even with Russia+’s immense exports, its total exports (about 10 exajoules a year, based on Figure 7) still fall short of Europe’s natural gas import needs (at least 12 exajoules a year, based on Figure 6). The dip in Russia+’s natural gas exports in 2020 no doubt reflects the fact that Europe’s imports fell in 2020 (Figure 6). Since these exports were mostly pipeline exports, there was no way that Russia+ could sell the unwanted natural gas elsewhere, lowering its total exports.
At this point, there seems to be little expectation for a major rise in natural gas exports from Russia+ because of a lack of capital to spend on such projects. Russia built the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it doesn’t seem to have a huge amount of new natural gas exports to put into the pipeline. As much as anything, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline seems to be a way of bypassing Ukraine with its exports.
Figure 7 shows that the Middle East’s natural gas exports rose in the period 2000 to 2011, but they have since leveled off. A major use for Middle Eastern natural gas is to produce electricity to support the local economies. Before the Middle East ramped up its natural gas production, much of the electricity was obtained by burning oil. The sales price the Middle East can get for selling its natural gas is far below the price it can get for selling oil, especially when the high cost of shipping the natural gas is considered. Thus, it makes sense for Middle Eastern countries to use the natural gas themselves, saving the oil, since the sale of oil produces more export revenue.
Africa’s natural gas exports have fallen, in part because of depletion of the early natural gas fields in Algeria. In theory, Africa’s natural gas exports could rise to a substantial level, but it is doubtful this will happen quickly because of the large amount of capital required to build LNG export facilities. Furthermore, Africa is badly in need of fuel for itself. Local authorities may decide that if natural gas is available, it should be used for the benefit of the people in the area.
Australia’s natural gas exports have risen mostly as a result of the Gorgon LNG Project off the northwest coast of Australia. This project was expected to be high cost at $37 billion when it was approved in 2009. The actual cost soared to $54 billion, according to a 2017 cost estimate. The high (and uncertain) cost of large LNG projects makes investors cautious regarding new investments in LNG exports. S&P Global by Platts reported in June, 2021, “Australia’s own exports are expected to be relatively stable in the coming years.” This statement was made after saying that a project in Mozambique, Africa, is being cancelled because of stability issues.
The country with the largest increase in natural gas exports in recent years is the United States. The US is not shown separately in Figure 7, but it represents the largest portion of natural gas exported from North America. Prior to 2017, North America was a net importer of natural gas, including LNG from Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, Algeria and elsewhere.
[4] The United States has a strange reason for wanting to export large quantities of natural gas overseas: Its natural gas prices have been too low for producers for a long time. Natural gas producers hope the exports will raise natural gas prices within the US.
Natural gas prices vary widely around the world because the fuel is expensive to ship and difficult to store. Figure 5 (above) shows that, at least since 2009, US natural gas prices have been unusually low.
The main reason why the price of natural gas dropped around 2009 seems to have been a ramp up in US shale oil production that started about this time. While the main objective of most of the shale drilling was oil, natural gas was a byproduct that came along. Oil producers were willing to almost give the natural gas away, if they could make money on the oil. However, they also had trouble making money on the oil extraction. That seems to be the reason why oil extraction from shale is now being reduced.
Figure 8 shows a chart prepared by the US Energy Administration showing US dry natural gas production, by type: non-shale, Appalachia shale and other shale.
Based on Figure 8, the timing of the ramp up of natural gas from shale seems to correspond with the timing in the drop in natural gas prices. By 2008 (the first year shown on this chart), gas from shale formations had risen to well over 10% of US natural gas production. At this level, it would be expected to have an impact on prices. Adding natural gas to an already well-supplied market would be likely to reduce US natural gas prices because, with natural gas, the situation isn’t “build it, and demand will come.”
People don’t raise the temperature to which they heat their homes, at least not very much, simply because the natural gas price is lower. The use of natural gas as a transport fuel has not caught on because of all of the infrastructure that would be required to enable the transition. The one substitution that has tended to take place is the use of natural gas to replace coal, particularly in electricity generation. This likely means that a major shift back to coal use cannot really be done, although a smaller shift can be done, and, in fact, seems to already be taking place, based on EIA data.
[5] The reason that limits are a concern for natural gas is because the economy is very much more interconnected, and much more dependent on energy, than most people assume.
I think of the economy as being interconnected in much the same way as the many systems within a human being are interconnected. For example, humans have a circulatory system, or perhaps several such circulatory systems, for different fluids; economies have highway systems and road systems, as well as pipeline systems.
Humans require food at regular intervals. They have a digestive system to help them digest this food. The food has to be of the right kinds, not all sweets, for example. The economy needs energy of the right kinds, as well. It has many kinds of devices that use this energy. Intermittent electricity from wind or solar, by itself, doesn’t really work.
Human beings have kinds of alarms that go off to tell if there is something wrong. They feel hungry if they haven’t eaten in a while. They feel thirsty if they need water to drink. They may feel overheated if an infection gives them a fever. An economy has alarms that go off, as well. Prices rise too high for consumers. Or, companies go bankrupt from low market prices for their products. Or, widespread defaults on loans become a problem.
The symptoms we are seeing now with the UK economy relate to a natural gas import system that is showing signs of distress. It is pleasant to think that the central bankers or public officials can fix all problems, but they really cannot, just as we cannot fix all problems with our health.
[6] Inexpensive energy plays an essential role in the economy.
We all know that inexpensive food is far preferable to expensive food in powering our own personal economies. For example, if we need to spend 14 hours producing enough food to live on (either directly by farming, or indirectly by earning wages to buy the food), it is clear that we will not be able to afford much of anything other than food. On the other hand, if we can produce food to live on in 30 minutes a day (directly or indirectly), then we can spend the rest of the day earning money to buy other goods and services. We likely can afford many kinds of goods and services. Thus, a low price for food makes a big difference.
It is the same way with the overall economy. If energy costs are low, the cost of producing food is likely low because the cost of using tractors, fertilizers, weed killers and irrigation is low. From the point of view of any manufacturer using electricity, low price is important in being able to produce goods that are competitive in the global marketplace. From the point of view of a homeowner, a low electricity price is important in order to have enough funds left over after paying the electricity bill to be able to afford other goods and services.
Economists seem to believe that high energy prices can be acceptable, especially if the price of fossil fuels rises because of depletion. This is not true, without adversely affecting how the economy functions. We can understand this problem at our household level; if food prices suddenly rise, the rest of our budget must shrink back.
[7] If energy prices spike, these high prices tend to push the economy into recession.
A key issue with fossil fuels is depletion. The resources that are the least expensive to access and remove tend to be extracted first. In theory, there is a great deal more fossil fuel available, if the price rises high enough. The problem is that there is a balancing act between what the producer needs and what the consumer can afford. If energy prices rise very high, consumers are forced to cut back on their spending, pushing the economy into recession.
High oil prices were a major factor pushing the United States and other major users of oil into the Great Recession of 2007-2009. See my article in Energy, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. In part, high oil prices made debt harder to repay, especially for low income workers with long commutes. It also made countries that used a significant share of oil in their energy mix less competitive in the world market.
The situation being encountered by some natural gas importers is indeed similar. Paying a very high price for imported natural gas is not a very acceptable situation. But not having electricity available or not being able to heat our homes is not very acceptable either.
[8] Conclusion. It is easy to be lulled into complacency by the huge natural gas reserves that seem to be available.
Unfortunately, it is necessary to build all of the infrastructure that is required to extract natural gas resources and deliver them to customers at a price that the customers can truly afford. At the same time, the price needs to be acceptable to the organization building the infrastructure.
Of course, more debt or money created out of thin air doesn’t solve the problem. Resources of many kinds need to be available to build the required infrastructure. At the same time, wages of workers need to be high enough that they can purchase the physical goods they require, including food, clothing, housing and basic transportation.
At this point, the problem with high prices is most noticeable in Europe, with its dependence on natural gas imports. Europe may just be the “canary in the coal mine.” The problem has the potential to spread to other natural gas prices and to other fossil fuel prices, pushing the world economy toward recession.
At a minimum, people planning the use of intermittent electricity from wind or solar should not assume that reasonably priced natural gas will always be available for balancing. One likely area for shortfall will be winter, as well as storing up reserves for winter (the problem affecting Europe now), since winter is when heating needs are the highest and solar resources are the lowest.
According to the Dutch bureau of Statistics the natural gasreserves in the Netherlands will be depleted in 5,5 years. Very few people seem worried by this. Probably because we (the Dutch) can import natural gas from Russia and Norway.
Well, the Norwegian gasreserves may last only for another 400 weeks (or 8 years) according to this article… https://peakoilbarrel.com/norway-2021-part-1-of-2-exploration-discoveries-and-reserves/
I’ve always known we (the Dutch) would run out of gas during my lifetime. But I hoped it would be sometime after 2030….
Dear Gail, You and your work are precious treasures!
Warm regards!
Thanks! My commenters are helpful, too.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1442017484886851590
Mr Pool keeps posting a clip from Utopia that obviously is for us on OFW.
Depopulation through vaccine sterilisation.
Malone posted an article about the vaccine going into the ovaries and the spike being then produced by the ovaries.
I know nothing about Mr Pool, or screen culture, but sterilisation is a goal.
A quick look at the history of the Gates foundation and GAVI in Africa and India proves this beyond doubt. So many different debilitating “vaccines” but only ever one result that they all shared.
Sterilisation of young females.
This is now blatantly obvious with the new experimental therapeutic. From trial data, through real world events and on to death(autopsies).
https://t.co/5d1Wpkiheu?amp=1
I am afraid I am not convinced by this article.
the last OFW post was about energy limits and inevitable conflicts .
the main subject of that post was virtually obliterated by a wordstorm of covid obsession, (the details are too ludicrous to go into again)
this postis about natural gas limits, and already the spectre of Bill Gates et al trying to control the population is rearing its head yet again , no doubt to feed the 1 in 3 response rate.
energy depletion is starting to hit everywhere, in various permutations, and is going to affect our collective future in ways we cannot begin to imagine, while the main effect of covid is to provide sustenance to every conspiracy merchant on the planet, while its overall effect will be trivial compared to our coming conflict over energy supplies.
based on ‘sterilisation’ comments, and the others which will be doubt follow in agreement, i question the collective fitness of the human race to survive at all
Norm
It would appear that the COV19 distraction worked.
The majority no longer see the imminent energy cliff as the main threat. Actual proof of a C19 vax being lethal reducing the pop in the long term is non existent.
Energy is everything! and it’s looking more like we are falling down the seneca cliff.
i can only agree
whether the majority can be convinced of it is another matter
I would recommend you re-read and consider what you just posted: “Actual proof …in the long term is non-existant”.
Why do you think that is ? Last time i checked (and i check this every week or so) it was because there is no long term period in which these novel injections have been evaluated… ranging between 9-3 months in most of the population where i live currently.
This is quite different from your comment, which i interpret as suggesting that there has been a “long term” period and no evidence was found….
Meanwhile what we DO know is that the adverse reaction databases are showing significantly higher rates & clustering than for other vaccines. I’m in good company in thinking that. For example MD & prof. of epidemiology at Yale Dr. Risch also wrote about this in the WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-covid-vaccines-riskier-than-advertised-11624381749
That being said, i agree that it remains to be seen whether this is truly a CEP scenario or not. Though not for lack of indicators pointing in that direction it would seem.
Keep well
Sometimes the obvious does not appear to be obvious … because people do not want to lose hope…
To summarize:
We know that conventional oil peaked years ago — and that shale peaked in 2018…. we know that we’ve drilled the heart out of the watermelon so shale is on the precipice of mega collapse due to lack of pressure….
We know can see the gas supply is blowing up right before our faces… coal is no doubt in a similar decline….
We have a virus that is basically as deadly as a bad flu….
We have never been able to eliminate a coronavirus…
We are vaccinating everyone including children — even though more are harmed by the vaccine than the virus…. we do not even know the long term side effects of the vaccine because it has not been tested…
We are using extreme coercion to push this untested useless vaccine on people – including denying them basic freedoms and firing them from their jobs…
We block experts who offer a way out of this — including Great Barrington scientists… and we ignore the live case study that is Sweden — no lockdowns or masks — protect the at risk … minimal deaths….
We ban treatments including Ivermectin…
All leaders and political parties including the opposition … all MSM … are supporting the injections.. as is Sweden… there is zero opposition ….
It is a hard truth to swallow…. but this cannot be anything but a plan to exterminate humans to prevent epic suffering.
It is… the right thing to do…. the only thing.
Hero:
https://pharmaceuticalfraud.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/489/2021/09/Trump-Fauci-Coronavirus-Task-Force.jpg
“a wordstorm of covid obsession”
Indeed, why should we obsess over something as perfectly (new) normal and natural as this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n89J9HHQx-s
What’s unusual about these images? Nothing, in fact. Just a state (australian, in this case) using terror as an instrument of manipulation and control of the plebs, as states have always done, more or less openly.
So, nothing to see here. Let’s instead mull over, for the millionth time, the hypothetical scenario of instant global collapse a la Korowicz. It’s endlessly fascinating.
yes norm… and covid just happened to occur just as energy limits were being hit… and now we are about to begin vaccinating 2 year old children…
Are you really this stooooopid? Really?
stupid only in the sense of trying to unravel your alphabet soup replies
Utopia (2013) is the best series ever (I’m currently watching it for the third time: truly fascinating stuff) and it’s also I suspect a masterful piece of predictive programming, produced by Shine Group, a company founded by Elisabeth Murdoch.
The Tory government in UK is in a public bust up with the hauliers (HGV) association, which they have tried to blame for the petrol crisis. The Tories are refusing to take any responsibility for the lack of HGV drivers, which has been years in the making, their new visa policies are entirely inadequate to the situation, and they are attacking anyone that they can, including the general public. This is a complete shambles. UK has no functional government now, it prefers to ‘blame shift’ and to engage in public slanging matches with industry bodies and the public. That is a recipe for present failure.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/grant-shapps-fuel-crisis-drivers-b1927265.html
> Anger as Grant Shapps claims hauliers have ‘created’ the fuel shortage crisis
Transport secretary accused of ‘disgraceful attack’ and of ‘shamefully passing the buck’ for filling station queues / Grant Shapps says fuel crisis is ‘manufactured’ and blames haulage association
Grant Shapps has sparked an angry row after claiming hauliers have “created” the fuel shortage crisis, despite the government admitting to a lack of lorry drivers. The transport secretary was accused of a “disgraceful attack” and of “shamefully passing the buck” for the queues at filling station forecourts, as the worsening situation threatened to engulf the government. Mr Shapps also appeared to blame the public for the problems by panic-buying petrol and diesel “when they don’t need it”, insisting there are adequate stocks.
But the RHA hit back quickly, pointing out its managing director Rod McKenzie had not even been at the meeting where a BP executive had discussed stock levels.
“The RHA believes this disgraceful attack on a member of its staff is an attempt to divert attention away from their recent handling of the driver shortage crisis.”
Sarah Olney, the Liberal Democrat business spokesperson, said: “Grant Shapps is shamefully passing the buck for the government’s own failures. The Conservatives have repeatedly ignored calls from businesses to address the shortage of drivers. It is a bit rich for ministers to now blame the public and the road haulage industry for the mess we find ourselves in.”
Jim McMahon, Labour’s shadow transport secretary, said: “It beggars belief that the transport secretary is seeking to blame others for a crisis entirely of the government’s own making. These problems have been growing for years and the Conservatives have done nothing to address them.”
Mr Shapps comments came after the announcement of emergency visas for foreign lorry drivers to come to the UK to ease the crisis was dismissed as a damp squib. As expected, the offer will be made to 5,000 HGV drivers – plus 5,500 poultry workers – but the visas will run out Christmas Eve, triggering criticism they are too little, too late.
Keir Starmer suggested 100,000 foreign drivers are needed – the RHA estimate of the shortfall – saying: “We are going to have to do that. We have to issue enough visas to cover the number of drivers that we need. I’m astonished the government, knowing the situation, is not acting today. The prime minister needs to say today what he is going to do.”
Yeah of course all countries have 100.000 spare drivers for a snip with the finger from the UK govt. I bet Hungary Poland or Romania will not let them go. Possibly they will notice too late taking their own hit.
90% of petrol stations are out of petrol in UK, and rising.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10029885/Ambulance-crashes-car-waiting-fuel-petrol-stations-close.html
Up to 90 per cent of forecourts are out of fuel and the rest are running out quickly
As many as nine in ten forecourts have run out of fuel with the rest set to run out quickly, experts have warned amid a weekend of chaos that saw an ambulance hit a car in a petrol queue and warnings from a minister that the haulier shortage could take years to fix.
More petrol stations were forced to close today amid panic buying and the knock-on impact of the HGV crisis crippling the UK’s transport industry.
Some rational advice(although probably too late, after the fear was yet again, very deliberately stoked).
https://twitter.com/InProportion2/status/1441671311349063685?s=20
That is one shell garage, and the bloke says that the problem is a shortage of HGV drivers for BP and Texaco. He is not saying that there is no problem with fuel supply in UK, he is saying that it is because of a shortage of HGV drivers, which is what everyone else is saying.
7 (?) energy companies going bust in a short time to me looks like a perfect lorry driver shortage problem.
The household utility companies busted because of a shortage of natural gas?
I wonder what North Koreans would say?
This part sounds like it points to the real problem:
“Britain’s second biggest oil refinery Stanlow, was holding crisis talks with HMRC over a £223m VAT bill.”
Because buyers (such as individual citizens and drivers of the big lories) cannot afford the high selling of diesel and other refined oil products that refineries need, the refinery has not been making money and not been paying its bills. It is in a similar condition to Evergrande. When the refinery can’t pay its bills, it cannot deliver the diesel and other oil products to the stations selling these products.
Thank you Mirror for your updates from UK.
Shortage of truck drivers is also an Italian and European problem.
It is also a problem I know directly for a series of circumstances.
I’ve seen that also Gail had touched this issue.
Maybe I can give you here some more information about this problem.
Their salaries have been squeezed for many years for the sake of reducing transporations costs, but their work is very hard and so less and less new persons have decided over time to become truck drivers.
In Italy the government has even decided to let enter 6.000 migrants from various parts of the world (with who knows what kind of licences they had to drive in the difficult European roads).
In fact migrants from these Countries have been allowed to enter in order to drive trucks in italy:
Albania, Algeria, Bangladesh, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Corea (Repubblica di Corea), Costa d’Avorio, Egitto, El Salvador, Etiopia, Filippine, Gambia, Ghana, Giappone, India, Kosovo, Mali, Marocco, Mauritius, Moldova, Montenegro, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Repubblica di Macedonia del Nord, Senegal, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tunisia e Ucraina.
Please see: https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/notizie/autisti/decreto-flussi-apre-agli-immigrati-nellautotrasporto/
I think it is a problem very similar to peak oil, when oil companies don’t earn enough from extraction so they decide not to open new wells.
In the same way, if the salary is too low, the risks are high and the physical effort is also very high, few people will decide to study and pay for the licence and work as truck drivers.
A lack of HGV drivers is no solution to anything. It shuts down supply lines. Governments need to step up if economies are to function.
Russian oil production has been rising steadily despite price fluctuations, and hit a resent peak at 11mmbbl/day in March 2020 when the pandemic hit.
The production fell of a cliff by 2mmbbl/day when oil price crashed, but has now regained a production of 10mmbbl/day.
The Russian oil production is price sensitive, but it’s hard to tell where the pain level is, since the ruble fluctuates with the oil price.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/crude-oil-production
I don’t see anything recent over 11 mmbbl/day on the link you showed. It is getting close, according to EIA data: 10,733,000 b/d in April 2021 and 10,730,000 b/d in May 2021. in December 2018, Russia’s oil production was 11,684,000, so it was close to 1,000,000 barrels a day higher then than now, according to the EIA. This reflects OPEC+ cutbacks, I expect.
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1619827200000
I think every country’s production is price sensitive. It is just that OPEC+ sits down and talks about how much to cut production.
‘Everything has exploded now’: on the streets with Thailand’s protesters…
“Din Daeng intersection… has turned into a battleground with nightly clashes taking place between young protesters, mostly students from vocational colleges and poorer neighbourhoods, and the police, who routinely fire rubber bullets and teargas.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/25/everything-has-exploded-now-on-the-streets-with-thailands-protesters
“UN: Myanmar Human Rights Situation Is Deteriorating.
“The UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Thursday that Myanmar now “faces a vortex of repression, violence and economic collapse” as civilians come increasingly under attack.”
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/un-myanmar-human-rights-situation-is-deteriorating.html
The fact that a coup occurred earlier tells us that Myanmar already had problems. When things are going badly, governments want to keep control.
“Tunisia: Opposition officials resign amid political crisis… international rights groups have slammed a “power grab” by President Kais Saied…
“Saied’s extraordinary executive measures have come as the North African country grapples with an economic crisis due to high public debt and unemployment.”
https://www.dw.com/en/tunisia-opposition-officials-resign-amid-political-crisis/a-59310390
“Turkey: Student housing protests highlight soaring prices.
“Nightly student protests across Turkey against unaffordable rents are a sign of a wider cost of living crisis.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/24/turkey-student-protests-rent-rises-housing-shortage
“Lebanon could run out of electricity within a week.
“Power cuts across Lebanon can currently last up to 23 hours a day, but state power company warns that fuel shortages could plunge the country into total darkness.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanon-crisis-electricity-run-out-end-month-blackouts
There seem to be a whole lot of areas of the world in terrible shape. Turkey, Tunisia, Lebanon.
“Energy crisis is moment of truth for Europe’s green ambition… The imminent prospect of citizens unable to keep the lights on is the stuff of any government’s nightmare…
“Europe’s decarbonisation agenda requires making fossil energy use more expensive. That was always going to be a tough sell. Now that higher prices are suddenly here, it is going to be harder still.”
https://www.ft.com/content/ab284905-8f54-4200-ab12-783d4580ad03
“Italy to spend €3bn on keeping household energy bills down as prices soar across Europe… “In the absence of government intervention, in the next quarter the price of electricity could increase by around 40 percent, and that of gas by 30 percent,” Mario Draghi said.
““For this reason we have decided to eliminate for the last quarter of the year the system costs for gas for everyone, and for electricity for families and small companies.””
https://www.thelocal.it/20210923/italy-to-spend-e3bn-on-keeping-energy-bills-down-as-prices-soar-across-europe/
It is good to see that Italy has a functional government that is willing to help out its citizens with rising fuel bills – however temporary that might be. At least it will get them through another winter.
In the UK, the Tory government is cutting welfare to the families who are most vulnerable to energy poverty, as well as cutting furlough payments to workers.
Boris has decided that now is the time to go ahead with increased poverty, just as the winter approaches and utility bills will be higher than ever.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/23/uk-energy-bill-crisis-prompts-flood-of-calls-to-citizens-advice
> UK energy bill crisis prompts flood of calls to Citizens Advice
Charity warns of ‘very difficult winter’ ahead for low-income households amid rising bills, cut to universal credit and end of furlough
The prospect of higher energy bills has prompted a deluge of calls to charities, with Citizens Advice warning of a “very difficult winter” for households on low incomes.
Seven small energy firms have failed in recent weeks because of record energy market prices, forcing their customers on to more expensive deals with a new supplier.
Dame Clare Moriarty, the chief executive of Citizens Advice, said the prospect of higher bills had come on top of dealing with the fallout from the end of the government’s job subsidy scheme as well as the £20 a week cut to universal credit.
The charity was seeing a big increase in people seeking information and advice on energy suppliers but also seeking help coping with the wider cost of living squeeze.
“We are seeing people come to us because, more broadly, they’re just seeing family finances being really, really squeezed,” she said. “We know that this is going to be a very difficult winter for many people on low incomes.”
A further 800,000 households fell victim to the turmoil in the energy market on Wednesday as both Avro and Green Energy went bust. Seven energy suppliers have now gone under, with a total of more than 1.5m households being shunted on to a new supplier.
Paying the companies less for electricity or natural gas can’t work for very long. Or subsidizing the payments made by citizens. The underlying situation really needs to be fixed.
“Why China’s Evergrande Crisis Could Be Worse Than the U.S. Crash.
“With 30% of its GDP at risk, China’s economy is more vulnerable to a real estate bust than either America’s or Japan’s was when their bubbles burst.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-25/why-china-s-evergrande-crisis-could-be-worse-than-the-u-s-crash
“China asks local goverments to get ready for possible collapse of Evergrande…
“The officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm…”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-asks-local-goverments-to-get-ready-for-possible-collapse-of-evergrande-11632395321
“The chairman and chief executive of bankrupt Chinese conglomerate HNA Group, one of the country’s most prominent buyers of international assets, were taken away by police, according to a statement issued by the company on Friday…
“No further details on the allegations against them or their current whereabouts were provided.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/Bankrupt-HNA-s-chairman-and-CEO-taken-away-by-Chinese-police
“Work on an ‘iconic’ town centre tower block [Croydon, UK] seems to have been halted, as reports from China suggest the company behind the project may be struggling…
“A series of reports in the Chinese press this month suggest that R&F Properties is struggling to meet the Beijing government’s new rules to reduce developers’ debt.”
https://insidecroydon.com/2021/09/23/hong-kong-finance-crisis-could-hit-500m-nestle-tower-scheme/
With energy supplies not growing as much as China would like, it has to cut back. Building is one of those places.
“An end to super-cheap money? Central banks begin tightening cycle.
“The world’s financial markets rarely sit glued to their screens waiting for the no-nonsense Norges Bank to pronounce its verdict on Norway’s monetary policy. This week was different. The 0.25 percentage point rise in its interest rate was the most visible expression yet of a turn in the monetary policy cycle that is spreading across the world…
” Along with Norway’s monetary tightening, the first in any advanced economy since the pandemic began, four emerging economy central banks — Pakistan, Hungary, Paraguay and Brazil — also raised the cost of borrowing this week, while the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England both signalled a move towards tightening monetary policy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f68c2581-ae8b-443d-9b5b-117f7628533b
“Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Is Nudging Central Banks.
“In the U.S., Federal Reserve officials are now split on whether to raise their benchmark interest rate by the end of 2022.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/charting-the-global-economy-inflation-is-nudging-central-banks
“Textbook Stagflation [US] Rising Faster Than Any Time Since IHS Began Tracking…
“It’s a global phenomenon that holds as true for the UK, for example, as the US where IHS reports…”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456927-textbook-stagflation-rising-faster-any-time-since-ihs-began-tracking
More stimulus leads to more inflation, not more goods and services. It becomes hard for central banks to fix the world’s problems.
Stock markets will not like rising interest rates, I am afraid.
“The head of one of Asia’s biggest ocean shipping companies has warned that governments may need to intervene to “restore order” to a global logistics market tormented by chronic delays, supply chain disruption and record container rates.
“In an interview with the Financial Times, Takeshi Hashimoto, president of Mitsui OSK Lines, which is part of Ocean Network Express, one of the world’s biggest shipping alliances, said that the industry had miscalculated how long the disorder of the coronavirus pandemic would last…
““If left entirely to the market economy, individual companies and individuals all doing their utmost to find the best solution for themselves will result in more and more turmoil and an out-of-control situation,” he said.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e587b44e-3307-43d5-9299-93d23735935d
“A record number of cargo ships are stuck outside LA. What’s happening?
“Southern California is dealing with a traffic jam unlike any other, as a record number of container ships have been stuck waiting in the waters outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to unload cargo.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/22/cargo-ships-traffic-jam-los-angeles-california
“For almost three months now, the spot freight rate for containerised goods shipped by sea from North Europe to the US East Coast has been 210% higher than last year (1 July – 23 Sept).”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-container-shipping-spot-rates-jump-210-on-last-year/
The probelm is worse than oil prices doubling.
The UK’s second largest oil refinery may be on the brink of collapse as it struggles to pay off back taxes. It could go into official receivership. It really is not a good sign if refineries cannot function profitably and pay taxes. The news comes amid a petrol crisis in UK that is attributed to a lack of HGV drivers – if it is not one thing, then it is another these days.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/26/uk-essar-energy-second-biggest-oil-refinery-on-brink-of-collapse-reports
> Stanlow oil refinery ‘on brink of collapse’ as crisis talks continue
The Stanlow refinery supplies about a sixth of the UK’s road fuel.
The UK’s second biggest oil refinery is locked in talks with tax officials over a deferred tax bill amid reports that it could be on the brink of collapse. Essar Energy, which owns the Stanlow oil refinery in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, is negotiating with HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) over a £223m VAT payment, delayed because of the pandemic. The Stanlow oil refinery supplies about a sixth of Britain’s road fuel, and is owned by the billionaire brothers Shashi and Ravi Ruia, through their company Essar Oil UK.
Essar Oil UK used the government’s pandemic VAT deferral scheme last year, which allowed businesses to delay tax repayments. It still owes £223m, and was reportedly due to start repayments this week.
Essar says it is in positive discussions with HMRC for a short extension to its “time-to-pay (TTP) arrangement” agreed earlier this year, having repaid £547m of the £770m originally deferred. But the Sunday Times reported that the government was on alert in case Stanlow collapsed, and that it could go into insolvency if it could not raise more funds. It that happened, the refinery would be likely to be taken on by the official receiver, to keep the refinery running.
I don’ always read the article in the order they are post. I saw another comment about this, and said that I think it is key. Without the refinery being able stay open and make money, there is a big problem. It sounds like the problem is at least partly related to the earlier shutdown.
I can’t see the UK govt allowing this refinery to go down the tubes (although they, the govt., are a bunch of crooks and incompetents, who knows). Losing one sixth of our road fuel would be catastrophic, I would have thought.
Unfortunately … at some point … the math no longer works…. we appear to be approaching that point … there is nothing more that can be done….
This is why it’s the ‘Compassionate’ Extinction Plan… as opposed to the Extinction Plan…
Imagine winter .. without gas… and petrol… and electricity… and food… and medicine… and police….
And our leaders are being attacked for doing the right thing by us…. it must be very stressful for them… killing 8B people was never going to be easy.
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/_BcMlr_VHLag/TFC13cta1XI/AAAAAAAAAEQ/mW8Ak0q839U/s842/Consumo-gas-europa.PNG
Malthus was right in the end?
Brendan has a new hit piece on the reverend. He contrasts the perspective of ‘natural, finite limits’, that constrain the expansion of human civilisation, to what he holds up as the ‘Marxist’ perspective, whereby ‘social change’ overcomes natural limits.
Marx and Engels however were materialists, and they traced social changes back to technological changes and their material conditions. They were fully aware that there would have been no industrial revolution without fossil fuels, particular coal in the early period. They wrote extensively about that.
History ‘advances’ for Marx and Engels as humans develop new ways of utilising the natural resources that they have. The ‘expansion of limits’ occurs within the sphere of ‘technologically utilised resources’ – it does not eradicate natural limits themselves.
Marx and Engels did not consider natural limits to be irrelevant, and they were right in their own time that industrialism would expand the limits of civilisation – but that does not mean that there are ultimately no natural limits to the expansion. They were ‘materialists’ for a reason.
Brendan seems to simply refuse to consider even the possibility of natural limits, and he makes ideology the pivot of disagreement. In his view, the ‘natural limits’ folk simply have the ‘wrong ideology’. But for Marx and Engels, it was fossil fuels that made the ‘progressive’ ideology possible – it was not a substitute for them.
He seems to have a ‘wishes are horses’ approach to natural limits – there will always be some new technological advance that will prove economically viable. His team fancy fracking in UK. I offered to arrange a debate between him and Gail but he declined to respond. His new piece might be seen in that context.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/09/24/internalising-malthus/
> Internalising Malthus
How the environmentalist movement rehabilitated some very dark and anti-human thinking.
…. The Malthusian worldview naturalises poverty, by understanding it as a consequence of natural limits, of the fact that there is a finite amount of resources and we risk using them all up if we create too many mouths to feed. So the problem is always the existence of too much human life, not our failure to create a social system capable of generating abundance and plenty. The Marxist worldview, in contrast, politicises poverty, understanding that it is a product of our failure, thus far, to create a system of production that can provide everything, and more, that people need and desire.
…. Today, this historic battle between the natural worldview and the social worldview, essentially between anti-humanists and humanists, still rages. Only now it is so obfuscated, so dolled up in the garb of environmentalism and climate change, that it can be difficult to see the truth of it…. The great folly of modern leftists in embracing environmentalism is that it confirms their abandonment of social understandings of our world, and their adoption instead of naturalistic fatalism, of the determinism of the ‘finite’ worldview, of the belief that man must agree to adhere to nature’s shortcomings. When having a child, and everything else we do, is measured in terms of its carbon output, then we know it’s the Malthusians who have won.
Regarding the “technological advances will save us view,” Joe Tainter and common sense tell use that there is diminishing returns to complexity. We also know that technology, and complexity in general, tends to lead to wage disparity. The growing wage disparity brings the economy down, if nothing else.
Totally correct, Gail. Nothing new there. “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics”..Plutarch
“Russia built the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it doesn’t seem to have a huge amount of new natural gas exports to put into the pipeline.” One of the early criticisms of the Nord pipeline was that it was simply to undermine Ukraine. Yet Germany went ahead. Germany will find it’s hopes dashed if they cannot get a steady supply of reasonably priced natural gas. They have risked a lot to partner with Russia on the construction of this pipeline.
“A major use for Middle Eastern natural gas is to produce electricity to support the local economies.” For decades developed economies have relied on the Middle Eastern countries for cheap exports of oil, gas, and now mineral resources we need to keep our economy running. The Middle Eastern countries are struggling because of drought, dwindling energy supplies, and have no choice but to do something for their own people. If they don’t they will collapse, which is a refugee problem for adjacent countries. We need to cut back on our consumption and make our homes and buildings more energy efficient. We can’t expect to keep exploiting less well-developed nations.
“The one substitution that has tended to take place is the use of natural gas to replace coal, particularly in electricity generation. This likely means that a major shift back to coal use cannot really be done…” When an electricity generating plant converts to gas as a fuel source they replace existing coal fired boilers. It is not a matter of simply switching fuels and using the same boiler. I don’t foresee power plants switching back.
“We all know that inexpensive food is far preferable to expensive food in powering our own personal economies.” People in less well developed nations spend a much higher percentage of their income on food than well-developed nations. This is largely due to the sale of cheap, mass produced, industrially manufactured food products that largely are made from corn and soybean ingredients. This food is also responsible for our high level of chronic disease. If we were to really compare the price we should include the cost of health care, which is three times more expensive than the food we buy. Our food is not as cheap as we think.
Two thirds of the energy costs for our homes goes to pay for heating and cooling. We can reduce these costs with well known, available, and economical solutions such as: more insulation, programmable thermostats, better windows, more efficient furnaces, etc. After the Great Depression the state of Minnesota used Federal funds to supplement a program to help low income home owners improve energy efficiency. My father took advantage of this program and cut his heating bill by more than two thirds. The program has been enormously effective and continues to this day although the funds come from the Chamber of Commerce. Many small businesses started under the original program continue today because word of mouth spread and even moderate and high income families want to save on energy costs. Reducing fossil fuel usage has become a partisan issue. Saving money on heating and cooling bills is not partisan.
We measure our economic activity and report it as a function of GDP. The question we need to ask is “What are spending our money on?” A young family who chooses to start a vegetable garden, eat lower on the food chain, and preserves food from their garden contributes less to the GDP than a family that eats 30% of their meals at a restaurant, buys mainly processed foods, and produces nothing at home. We could also compare the healthcare bill differences but since these tend to show up years later it is difficult to compare. My point is that every time a family chooses to be frugal, to consume less, to reduce fossil fuel use, our GDP declines. These efforts are viewed as a decline in our national economy, even if they are actually an improvement in our public health and our response to climate change. It comes down to a recognition of what we really need to do to address climate change, i.e. reduce consumption because Gail is right…our economy relies on cheap energy. As long as our actions move in that direction we are making progress, even if our actions reduce our GDP.
America’s health is terrible compared to the health in Europe and Japan. A big part of this is food, and food portions, in the US. Way too many people have gotten used to fast foods as being a way of life. Way too much meat, also.
The US health care system is focused on money making. This is a major problem, especially when paired toe America’s bad eating habits and lack of exercise.
Gail,
Regardless of whether future Oil supply issues occur due to prices being too low, or due to a diminishing EROEI, the end result seems inevitable… an exponentially falling energy cliff.
Due to the exponential rate of decline in NET ENERGY, as EROEI falls below 10 it would seem that the biggest existential threat to humanity would be the starvation of net energy provided by oil over the next 5 years.
All NET ENERGY cliff charts show a precipitous drop in surplus energy, with little left by 2030.
How this occurs (due to prices too low, or by EROEI starvation) is irrelevant. It is going to happen.
So, my all important question is…
Have you been able to gather any new data that you can share showing where we might currently be on the Net Energy Cliff chart?
A very scary chart indeed :-0
Thanks for your great papers and insights.
One thing I told Charlie Hall and the Biophysical Economics group at their conference a couple of weeks ago was that I thought that the only EROEI that made a difference was the overall EROEI for the overall system (fossil fuels + renewables + nuclear). It looked to me that this overall EROEI had fallen too low in 2014, when prices for all unsubsidized energy first fell too low. We have been living with too low EROEI for a very long time. I also said that we are now past peak per capita energy, which is what counts.
So, at this point, we have been using added debt to hide the problem for a long time. This increasingly is not working. The question is whether the economy starts falling much more steeply down in the very near future. We are at the stage that the only thing that will work is simplification. Closing down for COVID was one such simplification. Individual economies leaving the group (Lebanon, Madagascar, Tunisia and whole list of others) will also be a form of simplification.
At what point does the overall economy start falling much more steeply downward? Things don’t look very good right now with the Evergrande failure and with spiking energy prices and missing petrol in UK. Things in Europe aren’t going so well either.
By the way, I equate net energy with being able to produce taxable income that governments can in fact tax, and distribute elsewhere for the good of others. The low profits of energy companies since 2014 lead me to believe that adequate net energy has not been available. Renewables with all of their subsidies look attractive, but they aren’t really producing taxable income either.
Globally … only 45% have had one of the lethal injections…and 33% both… doesn’t look like we will get anywhere near 100% injected…
Team Bossche goes back into the lead….
Hopefully this resolves before the end of the year… BAU is shaky…. the humans need to be exterminated soon or there will be much face ripping
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+global+vaccination&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ946NZ946&oq=covid+global+vaccination&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512j0i22i30l4j0i390l4.5743j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
The energy problem is a symptom of the population problem. The MaxxVaxx is a solution to the population problem and therefore it is the solution to the energy problem.
The “end game” parameters are unknown so far.
Is the culling effect delayed by ~5-10yrs or just imagined – not there at all?
Is there anything to claims of regional specificity, (i.e. batches of different effect selectively put in various parts of the world)?
..
.
I haven’t taken the vaccine, because the long term effects are unknown. If they are meant to kill though, wouldn’t they give different types of vaccines to different people for business continuity reasons. Who’s going to maintain the power plants etc when civilization collapses?
Killing people randomly will not help the powers that be especially if all the survivors are say novelists instead of a good mix of engineers, doctors, scientists, etc.
Yes, what if by chance only hair dressers and insurance salesmen survived.
That’s the thing. The people arguing for mass dieoffs are essentially making an argument that the powers that be are completely stupid.
They are only human.
Oh……
Exactly, the highest probability is delayed effect and or forcing “social credit pass” to all via such vax mandate.. , the pass can be then used to detailed demand (and movement) curtailment FULL spectrum: energy, food, travel, ..
I thinks it’s the engineers, doctors and scientists that got us where we are.
If they’re so smart, how’d we get into this mess. Most are just dogmatard science styled marketers. They told their professor what he wanted to hear so they get to put some letters after their name. A real scientist knows you can’t have infinite growth on a finite planet.
We need seven billion useless eaters off the planet soon.
They gave us what we desired… I don’t see anyone refusing to use a washing machine…
Ok, I was a bit harsh. My Bad. Please excuse me.
We only need 6.9 billion useless eaters off the planet soon.
Pfizer recalls all Chantix lots nationwide over concerns of cancer-causing impurity.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-recalls-all-chantix-lots-nationwide-over-concerns-cancer-causing-impurity
J&J Recalls Neutrogena and Aveeno Sunscreens for Benzene Contamination
https://www.consumernotice.org/news/jj-recalls-neutrogena-aveeno-sunscreens-benzene-contamination/
From, “Pfizer stocks cancer drug pipeline with $2.3B deal for Trillium”:
August 23, 2021
“Pfizer is building up its pipeline of experimental cancer medicines, announcing Monday a deal to buy the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech Trillium Therapeutics for nearly $2.3 billion.
“By buying Trillium, Pfizer gains access to two drugs in early stages of clinical testing for a range of blood cancers, like lymphoma, as well as certain solid tumors. Both therapies are designed to work by blocking signaling between specific proteins on cancer and immune cells that are thought to prevent the body’s defenses from attacking tumors.
“Blood cancers appear the focus for Pfizer and Trillium, which, prior to Monday’s buyout, had advanced two drugs into Phase 1b/2 testing across several tumor types. Initial data showed treatment led to responses, including two complete remissions, among 30 patients. Detailed data will be presented at future medical conferences, the companies said.”
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/pfizer-trillium-acquisition-deal-cancer-cd47/605389/
The future is cancer. Pfizer are positioning themselves to profit from it.
Supply chain is seriously stressed out in developed world. Port congestion, empty shelves, energy shortage. It is kind of like “all happening at once”…
Besides the shortages we must also consider that currently the world economy is running at full throttle. I do not know what the economic players here are up against. Looks like some subconcious grab for what’s left. Does not really ease the trouble.
Maybe if we just pour in some more money.
That was helpful the last 20 times we applied it.
We world economy is starving, just like the human body it’s shutting down the systems it can do without to try and save the core.
It’s the result of putting much of the economy out of action because of the overhyped virus. Parts of it inevitably break and cannot be resuscitated, now that we suddenly want it all back online as before. Blame the panicked response to COVID, that made a mountain out of a molehill.
Instead of reaching higher stages of civilization, the Twentieth Century progressed in a direction to prop up peoples who are , I have to say, not worth propping up as the events in Kabul last month showed. It would have been better to just let Afghanistan enjoy Taliban rule; now it has 16 million more people, who are good for, I have to say, nothing
As cheaper resources disappear, the Twenty First Century will progress in a direction polar opposite of the Twentieth Century, with more resources at the top, no mercy and no hope for the peasants, and the end of most benefits for the poor.
Indian success story of ivermectin proves you wrong.
The FINAL WORD on Ivermectin as a Covid Treatment https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=76
What will happen is a massive destruction of the world’s poor.
Landowners’ men and militarized police will kill all the poor, all the homeless, van dwellers, etc, just like the Clearences of 18th century. Even now, people in Scotland are afraid to talk about the Lairds, since crossing them basically means no job, no health care, etc.
The world will be ruled by techno-feudalism.
A few hundred thousand super-elites can be sustained for a long time.
I think the world pop will have to fall to one billion, but that’s another story
Russia claims their oil reserves will last for 30 years at current level of production. That equates to 120 Billion bbl of economically viable reserves? They are signaling that peak and decline is imminent?
https://www.rt.com/business/535384-russia-oil-reserves-last-decades/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
I think that oil price makes all of the difference in the world. If the price were $300 or $400 per barrel, I would bet that more reserves could be found for Russia.
It seems like Russia has been saying that it has been near a decline in oil production for a long time.
I don’t think that any of these reserve numbers truly have any meaning. It all depends on whether the economy as a whole hangs together. Once major parts of the economy start collapsing, oil production will fall regardless of what the reserves seem to say. There won’t be enough trained workers, for example, or enough spare parts for those that break. Needed semiconductor chips will be unavailable.
Yes but can’t get that price? It will just be a bastardized dollar. It seems like there are no limits to what they will do to manipulate markets and currencies.
The West Siberian oil peak in the mid 1980s together with Chernobyl had unexpected consequences. Details in my post:
4/10/2010
Russia’s oil peak and the German reunification
http://crudeoilpeak.info/russia%E2%80%99s-oil-peak-and-the-german-reunification
Someone here asked a question in the previous post that why after some time, this forum moves towards COVID and are not talking about energy. Here is my take
1. Many of those who are here on this forum are old timers. I have been here since the days of Oil Drum.
2. We have discussed a lot on energy, renewables and the hubris surrounding it.
3. Perhaps we have graduated from it and go one step further to see the secondary effects like the Afghan problem, COVID, etc
4. It is now probably clearer to people that all the problems are energy related (??) UK and now Europe, energy mess… how to untangle if it is even possible to untangle.
Thanks Gail for the article…
Getting injected is a more immediate problem.
I have been here since TOD and energy discussion is a little old though things could be picking up speed now.
No, the real question is when does it happen, that things really start to break down. If it is 10 to 20 years then yawn. But if it’s 1 to 3 then yes we want to know. That is why we come here for. Not for Covid diatribe that’s been beaten like a dead horse.
That’s the eternal “half full / half empty” POV type of discussion all over again.
Scenario A: The sequence of can kicking exercises, especially since 2001 allowed for extended quasi BAU in the core IC realm. It was jolly good extra time, looking into the foggy rear view mirror, thank you very much, but NOW we just ran out of the runway, here comes the piper, before ~2027-35.. meaning very serious step down or full collapse pulse..
Scenario B: The sequence of can kicking exercises, especially since 2001 allowed for extended quasi BAU in the core IC realm. Yet additional sequence(s) could continue into the future be it on slightly different footprint, adjustment – fork ahead depending on sub scenarios e.g. Ronavax+CEP depop (lotsa resource intact), or Russians opening the Arctic shelf, or cheap batt technology for industrial scale mass storage comes along, .. etc.
Difficult to say when because the goalposts has moved all this while especially since 2007. We would have collapsed a long time ago if we still use the regulations set in 1970s like the gold standard. In 2007, mark to model came into picture. We have been printing like crazy since 2007. Debts was used since 1970s to overcome the peak conventional oil in USA and worldwide. With a compliant MSM spinning stories and keeping the population sedated, TPTB will conti ue to change the rules so that things will not explode or implode. It will be a time in future, likely very near when this magic cannot work anymore.
It is always a fool’s errand to pinpoint the exact time but personally I suspect it will be short, perhaps months(??) I see a confluence of nasty stuff happening. Supply chain is critical because it is now too long a chain. We just have to see. The best advice is just to live your day. That does not mean that you stop work to enjoy life and spend all your money but to have a fulfilling life. We are way past beyond what the earth can support naturally. Even a population die off will cause a collapse in supply chain almost instantaneously.
I haven’t stopped work but I have stopped contributing to a 401k or retirement. I am 16 or 17 years out when I could use it. Seems like a waste of time and money but I might be wrong
Your last sentence makes a critical point. We’re way past what the earth can support naturally, and so have been living UNnaturally since then. The big problem I see is the thinking that there is an option for “natural” left to the human. The human was always shooting for the unnatural (maybe there’s a book somewhere: homosapiens, the unnatural species,) We are always thinking in terms of the natural when, by now, other ways of thinking should apply.
The horse is not dead yet…. we must keep beating it!
https://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/beating-dead-horse-gif-18.gif
China may be diving head first into a power supply shock that could hit Asia’s largest economy hard just as the Evergrande crisis sends shockwaves through its financial system.
The crackdown on power consumption is being driven by rising demand for electricity and surging coal and gas prices as well as strict targets from Beijing to cut emissions. It’s coming first to the country’s mammoth manufacturing industries: from aluminum smelters to textiles producers and soybean processing plants, factories are being ordered to curb activity or — in some instances — shut altogether.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-25/china-s-power-crunch-is-next-economic-shock-beyond-evergrande?srnd=premium-asia
huh? How is that even possible? I suspect something bigger that is happening behind the scene. It like a mother telling the child that there are no more candies in the jar because it is bad for health or perhaps the mother is broke and cannot afford candy?
China had a lot of rolling blackouts last year because of inadequate electricity supply. They lasted from November until the Chinese New Year celebration in February. They were warning about blackouts this summer as well, but I didn’t hear about any.
One thing I discovered as I put together this post is that BP’s coal production and consumption numbers cannot possibly be correct. There are far too many exports reported compared to the imports of coal reported. I decided to look at trade data instead (or in addition). China’s reported data cannot possibly be correct. This post is about trade data. I am wondering if China’s coal production is in even worse shape that is being reported to BP.
The spat with Australia pointed out something else that I figured out when putting together coal data, comparable to the natural gas data. There really is no one else to go to for coal imports, other than Australia. The “Other Asia” category has a problem somewhat like the one with natural gas, with being a mixture of imports and exports. It can no longer be depended on for coal exports. I am suspicious, too, that the quality of Australia’s coal being exported is down. This probably entered into the decision to look elsewhere.
I’ve also noticed that news about weather in China is also less available. I used to be able to easily find rainfall totals, flooding totals, etc. Now this information is unavailable. My interpretation is that the Chinese government wants to limit “bad news” and keep even their own population in the dark.
I have long thought that we are seeing only the tip of the tip of the iceberg…
Who really knows how much affordable coal and gas remains… we were told that shale would deliver a new Saudi Arabia of oil … we are probably on the precipice in terms of all energy source
But we will never be informed of that
8 March 2021
China ban gives Australian coal miners a quality quandary
The average energy content of Australian thermal coal exports went down, while the average content of an unwanted contaminant, ash, went up.
Wanting the best bang for their buck, power generators generally pay more for coal with higher energy content and that dynamic puts a premium on the best stuff from the NSW Hunter Valley, which has energy content above 6000 kilocalories per kilogram.
While Indonesia has some coal with close to 6000 kilocalories per kilogram, it ships large volumes to Asia with energy content about 4000 kilocalories per kilogram.
Over the past decade, Australia has been shipping rising volumes of coal with energy content of 5500 kilocalories per kilogram and high ash levels, says Rory Simington, Wood Mackenzie’s Asia Pacific head of coal.
“The decrease in quality from Australia is part of a global trend in declining quality,” he says
BHP’s Mt Arthur mine arguably provides an insight to the Australian coal sector’s future.
BHP made a prescient call in 2019 to recast its Mt Arthur thermal coal mine away from its focus on Chinese customers to start producing the higher energy content coal that is typically sought by customers in Japan and South Korea.
If Mt Arthur is any guide, the future is smaller volumes of higher quality coal that costs much more to produce because of the need for extra coal washing.
BHP produced 18.1 million tonnes of coal at Mt Arthur in 2017 but is on track to produce closer to 15 million tonnes this year.
Unit costs at Mt Arthur have risen from $US41 per tonne to $US65.98 per tonne over that period, although a higher Australian dollar is part of the reason for that surge.
The recent performance of Mt Arthur, which lost money over the past six months, suggests making the switch to higher quality on an industrywide scale won’t be simple, Mr Simington says.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/china-ban-gives-australian-coal-miners-a-quality-quandary-20210304-p577sm
Can’t find this on CNN or the NYT… maybe he didn’t die?
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/39-vaccinated-and-dead-of-covid/comments
The Testimonies Project was created to provide a platform for all those who were affected after getting the covid-19 vaccines, and to make sure their voices are heard, since they are not heard in the Israeli media.
We hope this project will encourage more and more people to tell their story.
Watch https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=134
An other related article about the lack of available gas (in Spanish)
https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2021/09/la-crisis-del-gas.html
This will certainly exacerbate shortages and inflation
https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/china-power-cuts-widen-amid-235815960.html
I’m thinking this has zero to do with reducing emissions… given China is building loads of coal powered stations…
1.35 trillion repo… empty shelves and petrol stations… etc….
Reducing emissions is a good cover story for any problem at hand.
Building coal fired power plants may very well be a jobs program. I don’t think that China really has the coal for them.
The energy situation as a whole looks more like a balloon to me. If one type of energy is missing be it gas or coal or oil the “pressure in the economy” will go down and the overall situation can not be improved with a flip of a switch. These projects take 10 or 20 years to complete. The frenzy for “climate only” as well as the religion of privatisation is the best and the markets will solve it all has swept long term planning under the rug.
Nobody was able to develop a long term strategy for the predicament. That would mean long term comittments that simply are not possible in a wild-west style market economy.
If you file a request for a grant in energy issues not mentioning hydrogen will immmediately kick you in the dust-bin. People that should know how to handle these issues live in complete utter delusion and hybris.
A very sad story but we all know: If the economy is not just a financial system but an energy system and you look at the financial side only it will end badly and even all your money can not put more food on the table if there is no supply chain in the exact moment you need the food.
Ordered my last pallet this week https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126328861/end-of-an-era-ohai-coalmine-in-southland-to-close
I am hoping the CEP has completed before next winter as I am not sure where I can get high grade stuff at a reasonable price… if at all.
Coal mines have the same depletion problem that oil and gas wells have!
I agree that it is doubtful that it has anything to do with emissions, given everything else we know.
Thanks Gail for another informative article. Here in Australia there are 2 large gas projects Browse and Scarborough that are counted in World reserves, yet Browse is off the investment agenda and Scarborough might join it as the costs keep going up.
It makes me wonder how many other large more isolated projects suffer the same fate with rising costs. Only if LNG prices stay high for a long time would these projects be back on for possible development. It then takes years after an investment decision before they flow gas.
Many companies are wary of another slump in LNG prices, like happened in 2014, before major projects being built at the time came online. There were huge losses for years with suddenly lower LNG prices, so investment is still not certain despite current high prices.
It becomes a catch 22 with investment decisions delayed as the price is (consistently) too low for producers, while obviously the cost is becoming too high for consumers in various places, just like you keep telling us with oil.
The obvious early signs of the interconnectedness of everything seems to be playing out in the UK where high gas prices has closed fertilizer plants, which also make CO2 for industry, leading to shortages of meat, beer and softdrinks which use a lot of CO2.
This is simply a recent example of how the system works with interactions that are not predictable until after the event. While many have been distracted by Covid these problems of energy have been simmering in the background and now are about to get real in many peoples lives..
Thanks for this additional information. It sounds to me as if there are lot of projects like Browse and Scarborough that could go through, if consistently high price going forward could be guaranteed. Of course, this is not just the high prices a person gets from all of the funny money causing inflation in all prices, simultaneously. It needs to be that natural gas (and oil) prices are above other prices, so that the investment can be profitable.
It doesn’t really work that way though. We need inexpensive energy to operate the economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@NG.1
highest US natural gas prices since the 2008 maddness.
5.17 is up from a roughly 3.00ish plateau that broke upward in late June.
a big 3 month surge.
where does it go next?
In the US, $5.17 is definitely high.
US natural gas prices are definitely variable. From this chart, it looks like US wellhead prices were above $5 between January 2004 and December 2008. The chart only goes to 2012, however.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9190us3m.htm
This site shows Henry Hub spot prices.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9190us3m.htm
Prices were above $5 from roughly December 2003 through the second week in January of 2009. This is without inflation adjustment. There were a lot of high prices earlier, as well.
So the US has lived with high gas prices for quite a while before. High natural gas prices were the reason for all of the imported natural gas into the US. Electricity used to be generated by coal, much more than now, because it was much more reasonably priced than natural gas.
The focus is always on oil in media (so I appreciate this post a lot). While they definitely aren’t direct substitutes for petroleum, we definitely need it all (natural gas, coal, oil) in order to continue as usual at this point.
Natural gas strikes me as being a very finicky energy source, only useful in very specific situations (though when conditions converge, it can be very useful for a time). Pipelines require capital and a huge degree of political and social stability, or else they become very risky and prone to attack. Liquefied natural gas likewise seems to have a highly specialized infrastructure requirement.
I’m very connected to the fruit and nut growing industry. The industry has been devastated by a huge increase in demand, coinciding with supply shocks. For example, at a time when it should be expanding, one of the largest growers in the US (probably the largest) is operating at 30% capacity due to wildfire and drought. This will have long reaching consequences. Even if things went back to normal tomorrow there would be disruptions and price increases down the line. A lot of orchards across the American west have been destroyed by drought and fire, and in the southeast, due to hurricanes and salinity invading further inland (as well as introduced diseases like orange greening).
One of my major wholesalers is a huge mess right now. They take weeks to respond to emails and have no idea what is going on with their own inventory. In spite of the potential for more profit a lot of nurseries have closed (sometimes due to retirement, other times, they’ve sort of just imploded).
One retail nursery is selling one foot newly grafted trees for $80 a piece. A few years ago trees like that would have retailed around here for $12.
It’s a shame. Fruit and nut trees, once established, are low maintenance (in a non industrial setting anyway), and can be very low water. We definitely do not want to be moving as a world even deeper into till-intensive, fertilizer and water intensive field crops right as energy issues are coming to a head
There were some comments in the previous post about Mark Sheppard and his STUN method. I have a lot of thoughts on that (mostly negative), that I’ll save for another comment
One important aspect I noticed from the STUN method (Sheer Utter Total Neglect for those that don’t know) is that the yields are only 10% of a ‘standard’ farm in the area, so unless the world is ready to get rid of 90% of the population very quickly, the method simply will NOT work for mankind.
Of course Mark Sheppard is on good soils in a good rainfall area, imagine the ‘average yields’ for this method world wide.
It’s good for a niche farm in a system that can support those working these methods, ie buying expensive organic etc. How would he feed his family and pay land taxes on this place without selling extras like permaculture education etc?
Of course there is no alternative to go anything except organic eventually, but there is a narrow passage to pass through first when things break down..
Thanks for your inside information on the fruit and nut growing industry. I am a big customer, myself, of their products.
I have tried planting a few trees myself (peach, hazelnut and fig) with not very good results.
I can see that I would need proper fertilizer and spraying for insects for the peach trees. There still might be problems with the amount of cold weather at the correct time. The hazelnuts probably need more than that. I may not have the right climate for them. The fig is doing passably well.
Thanks for this reminder on gas. Many problems seem to converge now and your articles connect the dots.
The Gorgon gas in Australia contains 14% CO2 which has to be removed before it is liquefied.
The following are extracts from an article on the blog boiling cold. It is worthwhile reading it all.
“Chevron was allowed to build its $US55 billion Gorgon LNG plant on the Barrow Island nature reserve for one reason only: to bury millions of tonnes a year of carbon dioxide from offshore reservoirs into a formation deep under the island.
Since LNG production began in March 2016, Chevron’s attempts to meet its commitments to the WA Government to inject CO2 underground have been late, then bungled and now curtailed by a worried regulator.
The importance of CO2 injection at Gorgon goes well beyond WA. It is the world’s largest carbon capture and storage project dedicated to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, not enhancing oil recovery.”
“Up to four million tonnes of CO2 a year extracted at the LNG plant has to be compressed to a so-called super-critical phase with the density of a liquid but flowing freely like a gas.
The CO2 is then piped up to 7km and injected into a sandstone layer about 400m thick more than 2000m underground.
About 4km away, water is pumped to the surface from the same layer to make room for the CO2. This water is then pumped into a different layer of rock above the CO2.”
“Even when CO2 injection began 3½ years after the first LNG production, the system was not fully operational. The wells designed to remove water to make way for the CO2 were out of action as they clogged with sand during testing.”
“Almost 15 million tonnes of CO2 has arrived on Barrow Island with the gas produced from the offshore fields, and about 30 per cent has been injected underground, well short of the 80 per cent target.
If all reservoir CO2 vented because 80 per cent injection was not achieved counted, then Chevron and its partners would be liable for about seven million tonnes of CO2.
However, the EPA’s determination that emissions before an operating licence is awarded do not count means the liability is about 4.8 million tonnes.
Purchase of Australian Carbon Credit Units to offset the shortfall at the recent spot price of about $20 a tonne would cost about $100 million.
Chevron’s $47 million share of such a bill would be just over two days of its 2020 Australian revenue of $US5.9 billion ($7.9 billion).”
https://www.boilingcold.com.au/times-up-on-gorgons-five-years-of-carbon-storage-failure/
Increasing gas production in Australia has also increased fugitive green house gas emissions.by 4.6% pa until 2019. Details can be found in my latest post:
20/9/2021
Australian Green House Gas emissions down in 2020 due to Covid
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-green-house-gas-emissions-down-in-2020-due-to-covid
You mentioned gas as transport fuel. I did this article 6 years ago:
7/4/2015
Australia’s alternative transport fuel: The East Coast gas-ship has sailed
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-alternative-transport-fuel-the-east-coast-gas-ship-has-sailed
with an update:
25/7/2018
Australia is exporting itself gas poor, plans LNG import terminals
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australia-is-exporting-itself-gas-poor-plans-lng-import-terminals
Thanks for the information on the CO2 content of the natural gas being extracted. If that CO2 is simply allowed to become “fugitive methane,” I am sure that the net climate benefit of the natural gas Gorgon will be negative.
Way back in 2006 or 2007, not long after I started getting involved in energy issues, I attended an energy seminar at Georgia Tech in Atlanta. One of the things that was made by at least on speaker was the extent to which “carbon capture” was almost certainly a dead end. Another point made by speakers was that alternative energy was tiny at that time.
Australia certainly has a lot of energy problems. The natural gas is mostly being exported at a time when Australia’s own energy supply is high-priced. There have been outages at times with the electrical system, as well.
I am not convinced we (or maybe it is “I”) really understand the coal supply situation well in Australia. I have gotten the impression that the quality of Australia’s coal supply is going down and down, from the comments I have read over the years. The data from BP showed that the energy quantity of the exported coal was quite a bit less than what I would expect from comparing BP’s information on Australia’s coal production and consumption. Maybe there is a mistake somewhere. I got to thinking that there may have been more than one reason for China wanting to change away from Australia’s coal. If the quality (energy content) was too low, perhaps it didn’t work as well as required in China’s electricity plants.
Maybe the reason for Australia not wanting to use its own coal has little to do with climate change. Perhaps what is available is getting down to lower and lower quality coal. Australia needs something that works for exports. It can’t use all of its coal for itself. So it needs a good explanation.
“Climate change concerns” act as a good cover for resource problems.
Yes hard to imagine China would shoot itself in the head and reject Australian coal… because Australia upset them by questioning the Wuhan lab story….
After all…. China and Australia and all nations are knee deep in the plan to inject everyone…
What the hell is falling apart and collapsing today again?!
That sentence that seems to be the motto of our lives..
“where” is a biggie too.
my area is doing okay by the shelves test, and I expect the shelves to be mostly filled for the near future.
we’ll see about those expectations.
the falling-apart-pattern has been very regional up to now, and I expect that to continue, though discontinuity is always possible.
Yes but if you take into account Gail’s most recent article then the interconnectedness will cause things to start to fall apart faster and faster. If things are falling apart at the edges it means it is getting closer to the center… like a sand castle. I work in the electrical industry and it is getting very difficult to get common parts. Is that going to go away? I hope for the same as you but common sense seems to point otherwise. Mainstream people used to laugh when I would explain our energy problems now they just wince and go back to buying more sh$t to make themselves forget.
Unfortunately!
The younger generations are leaving the jobs now:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/03/gen-z-and-millennial-workers-are-leading-the-latest-quitting-spree-.html
We seem to be heading into deeper and deeper problems:
The population pyramids are reaching their limits, the lack of profits makes the investment a game of a few winners and huge amounts of losers, ageing populations require more healthcare and aid, the pollution control is harder and harder with the dwindling cheap resources, the clmt cgng is causing damages and requires immediate adaptation. The result is that the populations are falling deeper into various kinds of the debts.
The countries and areas with the mild clmt can ramp up the debts and push the countries and areas with the harsh clmt (i.e. with the greater energy needs due to the clmt mitigation measures) into the depopulation.
This situation further reveals what is the center and the perifery of the human civilization, i.e. where the costs of running the human civilization are the lowest.
Several years ago I started mentioning the fact that people in mild climates have an advantage, if there aren’t enough fossil fuels. There are numerous problems at once: shorter growing season, need to keep food from summer to winter (or eat freshly killed animals), need to heat homes, sturdier transportation, warmer clothes. Earlier civilizations that got very large were in mild climates.
Pingback: Could we be hitting natural gas limits already? – Olduvai.ca
critical tipping points are always seen in hindsight
maybe this is the big one
maybe!
I’ll miss your humour if it is indeed the big one (that’s what she said).
so… are you being effected yet by the crisis/shortages?
looks like the UK could be a preview of the USA.
winter of discontent is full speed ahead.
It’s affecting me. When I finished work at midnight last night there were between zero and two petrol stations still selling petrol and zero selling diesel. I’ve got enough fuel left to work tonight, but if I can’t find any more petrol by tomorrow night I’ll be unable to work for at least the start of the funnest week of the year (freshers week for both York’s Universities).
Empty shelves are increasing in the shop where I usually buy my groceries, too. There is always something I want but can’t find. Usually tinned/frozen seafood and bottled water.
Sorry to hear about this! It is hard for a taxi driver.
It’s just been the busiest summer ever. Job following job with hardly any downtime. I worked one week on one week off for the duration. Will continue doing this if it stays busy. So far no mention of vaccine mandates either. So not all bad!
i’m not affected directly, but at my age there’s little urgency to go anywhere to a timetable.
it would be very different if i had to. The existence of most of us is predicated on moving between a and b and back again.
when we had to walk, this was self limiting,
in the slice of time since we could choose not to walk, we’ve ripped the earth apart to keep our wheels turning at a faster and faster rate, and created wages in doing so.
That is pretty much the ‘business’ of the industrialised world.
Please remember that tipping points are only known in HINDSIGHT!!
CTG, did you post something here about progress? Or maybe it was more about the end of growth, and how pursuing progress was working against the need to manage the END of progress. I should have cut and pasted this where I can find it..but neglected to do so due to my wanting to take issue with the last sentence or two.
For sure, hindsight is worth a lot all by itself, especially as it informs overall perception. Clues to the past provide more clues to the future sort of thing. Here’s a good example of that kind of review.
https://axischange.wordpress.com/2018/08/03/8-2018-a-look-back/
This is about the earth’s axis changing. The last update is from 2018. Is there an update available?
if the earth’s axis was drastically changing, i think someone else would have mentioned it
Why? It is not good cover for some other problem. There is nothing we can do about it. It adds complications to the universal “we can fix our carbon emissions problem.”
don’t quite see that any any ‘major’ situation has to be a ‘cover’ for something else.
scientific information, if it’s accurate, exists of itself, it doesn’t need to be propped up, or act as a prop.
using that information is a different matter entirely of course
As we can see norm lives in a one-dimensional world… where governments do not have any secrets.. and what he reads in the MSM is truth.
If this was a reality tee vee show norm would be voted off the island…
meaningless waffle as usual..run your replies past your valet eddy—he’s used to dealing with nothing
Well … norm believes we have been to the moon .. and that the vaccines stop the spread of covid…
Let’s not expect much from norm…. other than a 100lb deadlift!
1:2.75 reply rate—like i said, approaching parity
after that you’ll be talking to yourself
100lb deadlift before I’m dead
Guess I’m happy with that at 86, (this week) and can accept your mockery for the little that it’s worth, with the humour it deserves.
try it sometime.
Let’s stop this silly line of conversation!
She did a few posts in 2019, but the bulk of her work was between 2014-2018, with preliminary posts going back to 2006 when she first sighted the bizarre solstice rise-and-set angles of the sun. Those who have followed her lead and done their own sightings are pretty much on their own at this point as her site was their only link to each other. I don’t expect the site to be around much longer from how she described her health status in her last couple of years of posting and responding to comments.
It’s a no-brainer once you actually sight it for yourself; so far north as it is on the summer solstice and now, since 2018, the sun continues even further north into July, against all historical experience. Then, grasping the implications, it makes for a complete reassessment of a number of things happening around us at an accelerating clip. I’ve been using YouTube as a quick research go-to on Solar Radiation Management (SRM), which has been quietly ongoing since before Edward Teller died in 2003. YouTube is invaluable as a digital Clif Notes. It’s stunning how many SRM conferences have occurred. Only a specialist would have noticed. The present line, coming out of Harvard, Stanford and many other institutions hosting these conferences, is that SRM may have to be used in extremis, (Plan B) but it has not yet begun. It’s clear that the SRM-geoengineering subject is being slowly normalized since 2010. There are far too many witnesses, pictures and documentation and the old conspiracy-theory obfuscations are just about over at this point. There’s a lot of interesting debate about the negative consequences of SRM potentially rationalizing a retreat from energy-conservation plans and reducing FF-emissions. Also, quite a bit of talk about how the global governance aspect of this powerful technology is going to work, if at all.
It sure appears that someone saw this denouement coming in the 1990’s if not earlier and whatever mitigation that was attempted failed. It’s obviously too late for anyone to do anything about the Earth having gone horizontal. That would be like asking a top to right itself. What does make sense is doing everything possible to keep Antarctic ice from any further melting, but that’s not looking very promising either. Imagine if all of those G-7, G-20, Bilderberg, etc. confabs had zip to do with what’s normally reported and horizontal-Earth implications are driving the life-boat economic/military/pharma scenarios.
What they’re showing us about the THOR Project and the glaciers at risk on the western side of the Antarctic continent (via YouTube again for quick info) gives some sense of how freaked-out scientists are about the rate of the melting. No doubt they’re all under some kind of NDA restrictions, but it’s not like the subject and their work can’t be discussed at all. I think there’s 200 of them down there on just that project alone. I’d love to be there to see if massive SRM is going on over Antarctica and its surrounding oceans, as they head into their solstice, since they’re increasingly sun-facing (for almost 18 years now) than they have been in millennia. Who knows how many planes and how much fuel a major cooling-effort would require, but there must be more than a sufficient supply of both of those these days.
Everything is linked together. It is hard to see how much of an effect this particular problem has in the whole scheme. Debt and coal are also big problems, right now.
In Europe prices for electricity and gas heating are rising. People that lost their jobs during the lockdowns cant pay electricity, hot water and heating. Food prices are rising too. Public services like schools and hospitals or public kitchen services are shut down for the fear of being infected. The governments focus on coercive vaccinations though as the solution to all problems.
The financial breakdown can be avoided by printing money, robbing the state and by inheriting the richness of the babyboomers. The pandemic helps for this. The babyboomers never thought it could be a risk to become dissavers. But the energetic crash?
The pink elephant in the room is if energy shortness could destroy the plans of the Great Resetters? And: Who will have affordable energy in the end to fuel planes and tanks and trucks before they rely on us, the people with axe and skythe? And: How long will that take?
The resetters might talk about “control fantasies” but in reality they could mean some sort of a digital “rationing system”. I do not bet on the fallacy that they are stupid.
Stupid would only be to talk of collapse in advance
There were a few times in the history of world oil production when competition in the oil markets did not keep prices in check with the cost of production. One of them being the OPEC oil embargo of the late 1970’s. World governments have decided that climate change is the greatest threat to our survival and burning fossil fuels are to blame. The consequences of their smear campaign against fossil fuel production has in fact eliminated competition in oil production. Ironically, the government stance has tilted the risk/reward in oil production to all reward and no risk. The shift in this equation stems from the fact that without competition in the market all producers are now united against the governments that are trying desperately to put them out of business. They have now adopted a business plan of flat production, low capex spending and returning more profits to their shareholders. The ramifications of this shift can not be underestimated. The more that production is curtailed the higher energy prices will rise. Very soon, there will be no economy to build all of those windmills and solar panels.
I don’t think I would explain the situation quite that way.
It seems to me that everyone wants a “happy ever after” story to tell. The climate change and renewables story is the chosen story to tell.
Oil companies have not been earning enough money to do adequate reinvestment in fossil fuels. However, they have discovered that they can play in the renewables game, with all of the subsidies. The subsidies can’t possibly last, and the intermittent renewables are not helpful in the long run.
The renewable that works best is wood. But it is very easy to burn down too many trees.
I agree that very soon, there will be no economy to build the solar panels and wind turbines.
And yet, by some estimates, if the population of the United States was reduced to only burning wood, the domestic supply of wood would be incinerated (extinguished, gone, used up), in just one year.
It depends if you think your work only involves the next quarter. The cliamte change discussion has been ongoing for 50 years and It was stated that fossil fuels investmenrt could becme stranded assets. That was no concern because it worked for the next quarter and siphoned off a lot of money off from the customers being lazy to ask for changes.
The thing that is really hard to grasp is that a business not making any profit will simply cease to exist. It is quite unimaginable for the fossil fuel industry but is is just as the system works. Nothing to see here.
Thanks for the new article.
Two ‘Vaccine’ Predictions: Only one can be right. Let’s check back in six months.
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=129
Italy Orders Companies Not to Pay Unvaccinated Workers https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=133
A reflection on covid mania
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=132
New Covid variant found in Kentucky nursing home has deadly mutations
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=131
Vaccines Failing Against Serious Disease, Data From Israel Suggests
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=130
Fed Reverse Repo Soars To Record $1.35 Trillion After Fed Doubles Counteparty Limit
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=126
The VAERS Scandal
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=123
Shocking results of the autopsies of eight people who died after COVID19 vaccination
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=121
‘This Is Evil at the Highest Level,’ Says HHS Whistleblower
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=120
More Mayhem in Australia
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=118
Why it is impossible to cure CovIDIOCY
In Festinger’s definition, cognitive dissonance describes a psychic condition of tension and discomfort brought about by a palpable contradiction in an individual’s mental world. This unease must be eliminated. Accordingly, something in the individual’s conscious awareness has to be invented, altered, ignored or denied.
If a person does not want to accept something, he won’t. It’s as simple as that. You can assault and harangue him with all the evidence you like; it won’t make the slightest difference. The more vigorously you contest his cherished notions, the more desperately he clings to them. People are invested in their perceptual schemata. They have spent a lifetime building them up. They are loath to relinquish them. It is too frightening and too disruptive to have them challenged.
This is the big problem psychologists and psychiatrists face. Presented with a client who displays, to take an example, an obsessive-compulsive disorder, or a phobia, it can be extraordinarily difficult to get to the root of the problem, and just as difficult to get the client to abandon the maladaptive behaviour. Why, one constantly wonders, when the behaviour is making the client’s life so miserable?
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=116
The moral of the story is don’t take the jab:
Here’s the story of a 64 yr old Physician who was badly injured and the medical community just blew her off. She even contacted high ranking officials like Peter Marks and their response basically was, hey so sorry to hear about your reaction. Best of luck to ya.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2021/09/no_author/exclusive-physician-horribly-injured-after-pfizer-vaccine-pleads-with-top-u-s-public-health-officials-for-help-and-gets-none/
The jabs seem to cause a new disorder, the leucocytes create large spots in areas where they do not belong to. Pathologists found that in dead vaccinated people. They recommend to stop deployment.
Medical researchers found large particles of high-grade steel in the vaccines and in the blood of vaccinated. They can be found at 400x magnification. This must not be in a vaccination.
https://pathologie-konferenz.de/en/
Peakoil doomers are of a special mental kind. It is easy to say all others are just too psychotic to accept reality. In fact it seems to me people are so occupied with their little dreams and sorrows they dont have the capabilities to think big. The point is: the solutions have been on the table for a long time: if it is called permaculture or four field crop rotation or back to the roots. People don’t want that!
Permaculture doesn’t scale to the Earth’s current demographics and lifestyle expectations.
Would probably work for <1B with a massively simplified lifestyle. Kind of where we were a few centuries ago before FF turned up and the party started.
And of course Permies have no idea how to manage spent fuel ponds… so their crops would soon be toxic as the wind and rain deliver the death blow to the permies…
And of course there would be those thousands of people rampaging through the permie farms ripping up the crops … killing the animals… and raping the permie daughters…
permie = target…
Permaculture? Hahaha… farming is what lead us to 8B in the first place!
The reverse repo amounts certainly have been soaring. This is a link to the FRED graph, showing longer history:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
It sounds like Italy has a strange approach to not quite firing workers:
Hey FE, I’ve got a ton of COVID related stuff I’ve been looking for a home for – articles, videos. Could I load it up on your headupster?
Dump the whole lot on there…..
I have one question for you all. Refer to Korowicz’s work on supply chain. If UK collapses n a heap, perhaps very badly like many died due to supply chain issue, will it cause collapse worldwide like in an important hub as per Korowicz?
This really is a big question for me living in Europe.
At the moment even the news posted here (thank you all!) frame it more or less like a UK problem alone even a lorry driver problem only. It is difficult to gauge.
The media is deeply flawed at the moment. They will only put out very bad news if the stock market is involved for the investors (refinery bust).
As Gail said: in an interconnected system you never know where “the juice” stops flowing out of the pipe next.
The gasoline stations as we see in UK are a choking point where things can get very ugly very quick. I bet it is too early to say at the moment. I notched up my alert level one step…
It seems like a UK problem would add to Europe’s problems, and perhaps push Europe over the edge on debt problems and ability to import enough food for everyone.
I don’t know if a “simplification” could happen, and the world economy could reorganize and use much less from Europe including the UK. Other parts would be left out as well.
“If a person does not want to accept something, he won’t. It’s as simple as that. You can assault and harangue him with all the evidence you like; it won’t make the slightest difference.”
Says the moon landing denier!
Says the clown who refuses to watch
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY
This example demonstrates the intent of the rentier economy. A non-functioning window could render a POV unsafe for occupants and unusable in many climates. That car would not be legally rentable. It would be decommissioned from service with a flip of a switch at Central Inventory & Accounting. Probably another car would be available. Probably they will come pick you up. Probably you will wait. Probably tape and cellophane would get you to your destination (as long as it ain’t the moon) and probably you will still require insurance to operate on state owned roadways.
Some Brits are going bonkers and attacking each other in full public view, viciously fighting over petrol at the pumps. The natural gas price spike is just so ‘last week’ here, where one crisis seems to follow short on the previous these days. It is like a whole flock of ‘black swans’ now. The ‘unexpected’ is becoming the norm.
UK is short of 100,000 HGV drivers, to deliver petrol, food and everything else, largely because of Brexit and C 19. Boris reckons that he will let in 5,000 EU drivers on temporary visas, and use 2000 army drivers, to sort it out – but the figures do not even close add up. UK seems to be without any functional government now.
If some Brits are scrapping like rats now, in full public view and with absolutely no shame, then a person might dislike to ponder what many are liable to do when the situation gets worse. This is nothing compared to what is eventually coming. Anyone abroad who supposes that it will be a ‘genteel, stiff upper lip’ affair really does not know the place at all.
The meme used in the media is another ‘winter of discontent’, like in the 1970s when striking workers shut down coal production and public services and UK had a ‘three day week’ for working. This time, it will hefty utility bills, food shortages, petrol shortages, everything shortages, inflation – and goodness knows what else. Even potable _water_ is now threatened by supply line disruption.
The post-lockdown economic ‘recovery’ is already flatlined at 2.5% below previous GDP levels, with just 0.1% month on month growth in July. The Bank of England is posturing that energy price problems are short-term – but we will see. States do not like to undermine confidence in their markets. Recession, mass bankruptcies and debt defaults must be a real possibility now.
> Forecourt fury turns violent as drivers queuing to fill up exchange blows, while elsewhere motorists fill jerry cans and BP, Esso, Shell and Texaco limit drivers to £30 each
Furious motorists have been seen fighting as the nationwide rush for fuel continued today, amid calls for calm from the Government ‘because less than 100 petrol stations are empty’. Shocking footage shows panic buyers punch and kick at each other during a violent brawl at an Esso petrol forecourt in Sidlesham, Chicester, as roads were left gridlocked and police had to be called in to marshal drivers.
Thousands of desperate drivers ignored Government pleas for calm as they jammed roads – with fears mounting over the impact of lasting fuel shortages on the economy. Some had multiple jerry cans in the boot of their cars and spent time filling each up while others queued for hours to reach the pump. Meanwhile, around 400 stations owned by the EG Group are limiting customers to £30 worth of petrol to give everyone a ‘fair chance to refuel’.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson revealed a visa U-turn for 5,000 foreign truck drivers to try to stem the shortage.
…. Britain is said to be short of more than 90,000 drivers, partly the result of coronavirus which cancelled the training and testing of tens of thousands of workers, and there are concerns an additional 5,000 may be too little, too late to halt the chaos.
Driver shortages are hitting every part of the economy, creating gaps on supermarket shelves, leaving pubs and restaurants short of key produce and jeopardising the supply of key chemicals to water firms.
The problems were triggered after BP and Esso admitted on Thursday that a lack of tanker drivers was hitting deliveries. The news led to a race to the petrol pumps with the result that hundreds ran out of some fuel types and dozens closed altogether.
An island with a big mouth, maybe first turning south.
Peace is of its time – both domestic and international.
The basic organic drives – to survive, expand and grow, to dominate, assimilate and resist – express themselves differently in changed material circumstances. States favour peaceability, like in the post-war period, when that optimises growth.
Britain, like elsewhere, has enjoyed an ideological shift toward ‘values’ of co-operation and peaceability. It is presented as ‘moral truth’, ‘decency’, but it comes down to whatever allows the capitalist state to make money in the globalised circumstances.
All of that is liable to shift back again once there is not enough energy, arable land, and all other resources to go around. Gandhi will be out as the ‘right on’ icon, and Lord Kitchener will be back in. ‘Loyalty and duty’ will be the buzzwords – like fiefdom in the Middle Ages.
It is hard to see how Britain enjoys any real advantages over its neighbours, and potential competitors, these days though. They are all just as developed as Britain now. Any military advantage is long gone. And they are united, at least at the moment, in the EU. That will likely break down at some point.
But, it is a complex, global situation now, and it is difficult to say anything definite about what will happen.
Eventually Europe likely will end up back in basically feudal social relations of protection and work in return for loyalty, service and a cut – basically warlords offering land and protection. The world never really got out of that completely anyway.
Britain has the remnants of an empire that is generally more loyal than those of other European states. If Britain can help those struggling remnants, no doubt that will help Britain in turn.
Mirror & houtskool > exactly, the UK+Ireland is an interesting case of overpop (~100M souls) dynamic swings – one vid blogger just visited ~30acre farm in Ireland, incl. two small cottages (one derelict), half wooded, nearby lake, .. the asking price was ridiculous ~180k, that’s basically beyond free even for lower middle class when offloading (as of now) from flat / small suburb house in the city. The major downside as one day the mil-security-malcontent types of UK will be looking to for bolt holes anywhere on these islands and Ireland will be likely brutally reoccupied, parceled out.
Now imagine what happens when the electricity goes off… permanently… Koombaya not
The CEP is a gift from the gods
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-2510903/Video-Men-brawl-petrol-station-amid-fuel-panic-buying.html
Brawling on the floor with their b/ms exposed in front of everyone, with absolutely no shame whatsoever.
That is likely exactly what we can expect from the population once things get worse – no shame whatsoever.
That was a cat fight compared to what is likely coming. Anyone who knows the place realises that.
“with absolutely no shame whatsoever.”
Says Mirror, our resident drunkard, who had to apologise to Gail for a drunken online IRA rant.
I am big fan of the IRA… they walked the walk… yes sirreee….
Just a pity there are no nativist organisations to get YOU back for oppressing them, eh, small Paul? (Paul, not Eddy, is his real name). Native American; Inuit; Maori. For Paul is a citizen of nowhere. I award him this year’s Nobel Prize for Hypocrisy.
IRA! IRA! IRA!
Walk the walk…
https://sd.keepcalms.com/i/keep-calm-and-respect-4960.png
Can someone explain to a newbie what CEP stands for?
Compassionate extinction plan. Kill people off with a virus (or vaccine) before fossil fuel limits hit badly.
COMPASSIONATE EXTINCTION PLAN (CEP)
1. Every country on the planet is on board with the Injections. Even Sweden. When have all countries aligned on any issue? Never.
2. Not a single MSM outlet is interviewing any of the expert dissenters – Yeadon, Bridle, Montagnier, Bossche etc… and the mainstream social media platforms are blocking them.
Why?
Conventional Oil peaked in 2005 http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/C-Cdec141.png
Shale in 2018.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times. https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c
Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/
The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html
Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/fed-repo-overnight-operations-level-to-increase-to-120-billion.html Banks did not trust each other – similar situation when Lehman collapsed
Oil Gluts – do NOT indicate we have found more oil. We just pumped what’s left too fast.
Summary In 2019 a second Perfect Storm was approaching – the central banks had been doing ‘whatever it takes’ for over a decade…. Essentially nothing was off the table — throw the kitchen sink at pushing GFC2.0 into the future. In 2019 the guns were blazing but the beast was no longer held at bay…
What do you do when you are burning far more oil than you discover — and your efforts to offset the impact of expensive to produce oil push you to the edge of the cliff? You can accept your fate and allow the beast to shove you into the abyss…. Or you can take the ‘nuclear option’ and shut down as much of the economy as possible, preserve remaining oil and pump in trillions of dollars of life support to keep the system feebly alive.
Punchline: The problem global leaders face is that if you unleash the nuclear option without some sort of cover, the sheeple and the markets would be thrown into a panic and you risk blowing things up prematurely. So you need a reason for putting the global economy on ice — one that does not spook the masses – one that is big enough to justify such epic amounts of stimulus and extreme policies — and one that allows you to explain ‘this is just temporary – once this is gone — we will get back to normal’
A pandemic is the perfect cover.
End Game – Covid was foisted on us as cover for the response to peak oil (if we don’t slow the burn oil prices go through the roof and we collapse) but it is also being used to convince billions to be Injected. The Injection is meant to cause extremely deadly variants like this .. only worse because we are deploying into a pandemic so everyone dies https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous.
The reason for this is that 8B people need cheap oil to live. They would starve without it. And 8B people without food would result in epic starvation, violence, rape and cannibalism. Industrial civilization ends soon after peak oil. Unfortunately we also have 4000 spent fuel ponds that will boil off and release toxic substances for centuries. These facilities cannot be controlled with computers and energy. So even the subsistence level humans die as they consume these toxins in the food, air and water.
The PTB understand all of this and that is WHY every leader is on board with the Injections. There is NO way out of this — so they have decided to mitigate the suffering as much as possible by putting us down and here is the mechanism https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2.
resisting the urge to slit my wrists, i found myself agreeing with you for your entire comment, even though you did copy Tim Morgan’s best bits.
until
we got to the last paragraph.
Eddy, when all but a select few have died off, Jeff Bezos is going to hold you personally responsible for his lavatory not working
Are you sure you want to know?
COMPASSIONATE EXTINCTION PLAN (CEP)
1. Every country on the planet is on board with the Injections. Even Sweden. When have all countries aligned on any issue? Never.
2. Not a single MSM outlet is interviewing any of the expert dissenters – Yeadon, Bridle, Montagnier, Bossche etc… and the mainstream social media platforms are blocking them.
Why?
Conventional Oil peaked in 2005 http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/C-Cdec141.png
Shale in 2018.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times. https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c
Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/
The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html
Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/fed-repo-overnight-operations-level-to-increase-to-120-billion.html Banks did not trust each other – similar situation when Lehman collapsed
Oil Gluts – do NOT indicate we have found more oil. We just pumped what’s left too fast.
Summary In 2019 a second Perfect Storm was approaching – the central banks had been doing ‘whatever it takes’ for over a decade…. Essentially nothing was off the table — throw the kitchen sink at pushing GFC2.0 into the future. In 2019 the guns were blazing but the beast was no longer held at bay…
What do you do when you are burning far more oil than you discover — and your efforts to offset the impact of expensive to produce oil push you to the edge of the cliff? You can accept your fate and allow the beast to shove you into the abyss…. Or you can take the ‘nuclear option’ and shut down as much of the economy as possible, preserve remaining oil and pump in trillions of dollars of life support to keep the system feebly alive.
Punchline: The problem global leaders face is that if you unleash the nuclear option without some sort of cover, the sheeple and the markets would be thrown into a panic and you risk blowing things up prematurely. So you need a reason for putting the global economy on ice — one that does not spook the masses – one that is big enough to justify such epic amounts of stimulus and extreme policies — and one that allows you to explain ‘this is just temporary – once this is gone — we will get back to normal’
A pandemic is the perfect cover.
End Game – Covid was foisted on us as cover for the response to peak oil (if we don’t slow the burn oil prices go through the roof and we collapse) but it is also being used to convince billions to be Injected. The Injection is meant to cause extremely deadly variants like this .. only worse because we are deploying into a pandemic so everyone dies https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous.
The reason for this is that 8B people need cheap oil to live. They would starve without it. And 8B people without food would result in epic starvation, violence, rape and cannibalism. Industrial civilization ends soon after peak oil. Unfortunately we also have 4000 spent fuel ponds that will boil off and release toxic substances for centuries. These facilities cannot be controlled with computers and energy. So even the subsistence level humans die as they consume these toxins in the food, air and water.
The PTB understand all of this and that is WHY every leader is on board with the Injections. There is NO way out of this — so they have decided to mitigate the suffering as much as possible by putting us down and here is the mechanism https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2.
“The PTB understand all of this and that is WHY every leader is on board with the Injections. ”
Says the moon landing denier!
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY
In Festinger’s definition, cognitive dissonance describes a psychic condition of tension and discomfort brought about by a palpable contradiction in an individual’s mental world. This unease must be eliminated. Accordingly, something in the individual’s conscious awareness has to be invented, altered, ignored or denied.
If a person does not want to accept something, he won’t. It’s as simple as that. You can assault and harangue him with all the evidence you like; it won’t make the slightest difference. The more vigorously you contest his cherished notions, the more desperately he clings to them. People are invested in their perceptual schemata. They have spent a lifetime building them up. They are loath to relinquish them. It is too frightening and too disruptive to have them challenged.
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=116
IN other words…. if you show someone evidence of something … even harangue the person to watch it… it won’t make the slightest difference…
Because the person is a MOREon.
such as
posting a video of a man obviously mentally disturbed—haranguing a retired astronaut about fake moon landings–up to the point where very annoyed astronaut punches him out of frustratation because he’s left with no other option—having tried to just walk away.
then holding that ‘violence’ up as ‘proof’ that aforesaid lunatic must be the source of all truth
when in fact anyone with a shred of common sense could recognise evidence of serious mental illness, and nothing more than that
>>>>a psychic condition of tension and discomfort brought about by a palpable contradiction in an individual’s mental world.<<<<<<
i think that neatly describes the aforementioned lunatic—wouldn't you say?
You are obviously at ease in such company
To clarify — he did not harangue him… he showed him absolute evidence of the fact that he faked the moon landing …. and the astronaut reacted with anger and violence.
He also threatened to sue if he made the video public…. it’s public… where’s the law suit?
Oh and btw that’s all depicted on Astronauts Gone Wild… this is a completely different video … it’s far more scientific and thorough… I think that even if MOREon were to watch this one…. he’d acknowledge the moon landings are BS…
Even a MOREON who got sucked in by the ‘get injected and you won’t get covid and you’ll have 95% protection’ might be capable of understanding that we’ve never been past the Van Allen Belts after watching this…
But you have to watch it of course….
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY
eddy——-
it would not enter your shuttered mind that the man had a camera shoved in his face by an obvious idiot, and reacted accordingly—-”i’ll sue you if you publish that”, then reacted violently
i daresay i would have done too
he wasnt shown proof of anything
he was shown he same regurgitated garbage that you tout around to keep your ofw audience amused—you know, the people who pay your tailors bills.
they too are desperate for ‘proof’ of their strange notions—that Bill Gates is injecting everyone with iron filings for track and trace purposes, via 5g masts.
the cabal of mad billionaires intent on culling world population.
i won’t go on
the list is an embarrasment to put into words.
though may i ask what your next receptacle for verbal vomit is going to be?
you must be at a loss now the paralympics is over, and theres no one to ridicule.
of course, ridiculing those seen as less able than yourself, simply diminishes yourself.
but as i’ve said before, this is your only audience, so we must be thankful for that
we can at least be certain that in RL no one hangs around long enough to listen to it all.
So ignore the subject of this post by all means—and keep the covid rant going. You obviously have nothing else to say
as expect norm the clown won’t watch the video
Because this is what clowns do…
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY
ah
but i did watch that video
it was a very informative video
it served to close down all other videos that you have posted . i haven’t watched one since
–so immensely timesaving—thank you.
the function of the clown is to rush around without purpose, making people laugh at their antics, while diverting the attention of the audience while the main performers are getting their act together
given that that previous ofw post was about the critical state of energy, and it was obliterated by a 1 in 3 wordstorm about covid
and this post looks to be headed the same way, i’d say the clown was doing his job pretty well, wouldn’t you eddy?
————–
in any event, I’ve been doing a reply count, and I’ve noticed that 1 in 3 is now down to 1 in 2.75
if that trajectory is maintained, you will soon be down to parity—ie 1 eddyreply for every one from everybody else.
i’ve made a graph, and by my reckoning, you will have passed parity by christmas.
so replies will be firing off at less than 1 to 1, my calculations are 1 eddyreply to 0,75 from everyone else.
which means, in effect, that you will be talking to yourself. The 0.75 of a reply will, i imagine, be coming from your valet.
the poor guy who lays out your invisible clothes every morning
So you now know that we have not been to the moon — otherwise — if you did watch the video — and still think Buzz (only a total asshole would be named Buzz btw) landed on the moon in his taped together contraption — then what would qualify you for a free bus pass that goes to all mentally re t arded people in the UK.
i have postulated a reason why anyone might be called ‘fast’
i leave it to the ofw reader circle to conclude where that nick originated
numerous people have suggested a reason, in other (face to face) contact threads, i will not divulge their names because i have to wish to embarrass them
Another thought on extinction ….
Team Yeadon has mentioned ADE as a result of the injections….https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines
Perhaps once the injection roll out is complete and they ram their poison into 90%+ they go back to the lab and retrieve the new virus that raises a cytokine hurricane… and everyone dies?
The other day I read that even those who have been infected with Covid and recovered must have at least one injection to get the passport….
If Team Bossche is correct then surely the multi billions who have been injected would be enough to breed devil covid and kill both the injected and the rejectors….
The goal appears to be to inject everyone … if we look at Italy where the govt has authorized employers to block rejectors from work and not pay them…. the choice for most is beg on the streets or take the jab…. the majority of refusers will take the jab…
Also… the variants we are seeing so far… are not of the nightmare variety….
Team Yeadon pulling ahead?
It is hard to see why tourists would want to visit the UK, with all of these problems.
The UK does not seem to want tourists, they are saying that people who got the Astra Zeneca jab in Brazil will not be able to go to Britain without quarantine, but people who got the same jab say in continental Europe will not need to quarantine.
It’s truly head scratching. Of course it could all just mean that the jab never worked in the first place.
I hope norm dunc mike took the short break between OFW articles to get the Booster!!!!
The situation is escalating with people in London reporting that most petrol stations are closed and the rest are inaccessible, and ambulances are blocked by queueing motorists from attending emergency calls. Everything tends to be interconnected, and one problem leads to others. Petrol shortages are liable to have untold consequences.
Part of the problem is that many Brits are panic buying petrol, stocking up beyond their usual needs, and that is shutting down the system even worse. Britain had the same problem during lockdown with everyone hoarding food and other supplies, which left supermarkets empty – even of toilet roll.
It is real ‘one for one, and none for all’ mentality that harms everyone. A person prefers not to ponder what is liable to happen here when things get worse. It is not so much a matter of that solidarity will break down, as that there is none in the first place.
> Panic at the pumps: Ambulance crashes into car waiting for fuel and police are forced to queue-jump to fill-up – as MORE petrol stations close amid crisis
An ambulance with a siren blaring was unable to pass gridlocked traffic queuing near a Bromley petrol station. A witness said the ambulance ended up hitting a stationary car in a bid to rush to the emergency. Police have also bypassed queues to fill up their cars as petrol stations continue to run out of fuel amid crisis.
An ambulance with its siren blaring was held up by huge queues of traffic rushing to buy petrol amid mass panic at the pumps due to Britain’s fuel crisis. Footage taken last night in Bromley, Greater London, shows cars gridlocked on a road near a Shell petrol station. An ambulance moves down the road trying to cross but is unable to bypass the packed lines of traffic.
In a rush to the emergency, the ambulance hit the back of a stationary car and had to stop and exchange details with the driver before it could continue its journey.
It comes as police have also jumped ahead of queues of traffic at a Hackney petrol station to avoid running out of fuel. Officers said: ‘We had to jump the queue, our cars are empty and we can’t get to the depot in Romford to refill.’
More petrol stations are being forced to close after running out of fuel as Britons continue to panic buy amid fears of a shortage. One motorist said: ‘I have been driving around Croydon, Bromley, Westerham, Oxted and Godstone for two hours and passed over twenty garages. Eighteen were completely shut and two had queues so long, you couldn’t even join them.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10029885/Ambulance-crashes-car-waiting-fuel-petrol-stations-close.html
People need to get into the habit of topping up their tanks whenever it falls below 3/4 full. No guarantee anybody will hear you. I got the idea across to my wife (who would be already inclined in this direction) and I mentioned it on a Facebook group for our small village. Somebody “liked” it.
The problem is when loads of people panic buy and hoard beyond their usual needs, like with boots full of jerry cans. Then everyone starts doing it just in case everyone starts doing it, and it turns into a most unsightly shortage. When emergency ambulances can’t get through the queues, and drivers are fighting for petrol, then it is a real problem.
I know. We here could see that coming and could have been in a position long ago to practice prudent topping up where petrol is concerned. It’s much more tempting to stock up on everything else for the reasons you give. (It’s generally too much trouble to fill anything with petrol other than ones gas tank. Which imposes a kind of limit to outlandish hoarding there if we top up routinely.)
Very interesting, thanks!
There’s also the political dimension to consider with Russian gas.
Is the market being throttled for political gain, or is it that the Russians are actually selling everything they’ve got (but just not to Europe)?
Based on the transit data, it would seem to be a miracle that Russia is providing Europe with as much as it is. Russia+ doesn’t really have as huge amount of gas as is needed to fill everyone’s needs.
Russia+ / OPEC+ has been moving for some time already into explaining that spot pricing is not viable way into the future (as need for investment is on the rise), instead long term contracts with “stable” pricing scheme should be adopted or at least take most of the volume produced..
This is obviously not welcomed in certain fin-speculation based circles..
I would agree that spot pricing just doesn’t work. We saw what happened in Texas last winter.
I think that a similar change needs to be made for the pricing of intermittent wind and solar. It cannot be sold based on time of day market conditions. It has to be sold as part of a complete package that includes plans for adequate year around electricity, including care for transmission lines, winterization, and workers for fossil fuels needed as part of the system. It probably needs long term contracts to buy natural gas as well, including storage for that natural gas.
Interesting how a few months ago I was inquiring about the tri-fuel carburator conversion kits to use natural gas/propane on my two Honda 2200i generators which I had paid about $1,023 a piece for last year from Home Depot, now up to $1,199.00 on Amazon. ( I don’t purchase from Amazon if I can help it- their prices now seem higher.)
Now these fuel conversion kits are gone at Amazon, but the company, Hutch, still has them for $263.13 on their website. But that is a lot of $$$ for modification for delivery of an alternative fuel that by volume (gas vs liquid) delivers only 1/5th the energy. Again, you sure pay a hell of a lot for fuel “flexibility.” Almost as bad as wind and solar.
https://www.amazon.com/Hutch-Mountain-EU2200i-Gasoline-Generator/dp/B07BHBLFN4 $299.99
https://www.hutchmountain.com/products/honda-eu2200i-propane-natural-gas-gasoline-tri-fuel-conversion-kit $263.13
Speaking of solar, I was also looking at 100Ah batteries used for homes and campers. Interestingly, the price for Battleborn Batteries (produced in the USA in Reno, NV ) have dropped over $100 in price from a year ago for the 100Ah standard Lithium-Ferrous -Phosphate work horse. Now $799.00. Strange. How can this price drop be?
https://battlebornbatteries.com/product-category/lifepo4-batteries/
Except to power small things like radios or computers, or perhaps things of necessity like a small refrigerator to store Insulin ( I am not up on the use of insulin pumps and how those reservoirs are kept.) I am beginning to realize that there really aren’t any long term energy supply guarantees -even if you try to go off grid. I sure would hate to have to forage farther and farther into the woods to hall firewood.
Being off the grid requires replacements for fuses, cables, currency converters, solar chargers and batteries. If you want a quick coffee or shower in the morning you need petrol for the classic Coleman Unleaded or propane. You can work well with a modern wood stove, it heats, cooks and bakes wonderfully. But eventually you need replacements, which means you are also dependend on supply chains. Also your cooking pots will not last forever. Are you pressure canning? You need glasses and gummy rings. Are you sure you can maintain your house? No lighting in the bathroom? What if some windows break? How long can you keep the roof? Is it possible to repair it with wooden shingles? Do you know there is a special hatchet to cut shingles? Do you know how to forge it? And: what will you do with the neighbour kids crying in the streets as their parents dont prepare but spend their money on representation now. Let them in? So they can kill you more easily?
That is what we have been saying for the last decade or so when we discuss the “interconnectedness” of current world where we have no skill, knowledge, physical and mental attributes to survive without FF. Granted a small fraction who can survive but those are a small minority that will probably die off within 1 generation.
Anyone knows how to make candles or fashion a knife from iron ore (mined in the wilderness)?
The grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence. Perhaps diversification can help. Apart from the extra cost involved, it can’t hurt.
Thanks for sharing. I used my C-19 stimulus to invest in 6 of the SOK 12v 100ah Lifepo4 batteries with low temp cutoff at $570/ea. I added a couple 40A mppt Epever charge controllers, 2k abd 3k watt Voltworks pure sine wave inverters with extra 2/0-4/0 cables and ANL fuses and a variety of standard and suitcase solar panels with several mounting options. I figured to power some essential power tools and appliances at home in the ‘burbs or at the cabin in the worst case. At the cabin, we have enough past prime orchard apple and standing dead ash and ironwood to last a good while. Waterproof containers, earthbags, UV plastic and lathe strips for building cold frames and cold storage were recent additions to the prep.
It’s really too bad about those 4000 spent fuel ponds that are going to rain deadly toxins on your Prepper Parade 🙁
Feel free to ignore this and carry on with Operation Futility.
The Fukushima nuclear catastrophe could have been far worse, it turns out, and experts say neither the nuclear industry nor its regulators are doing enough to prevent a calamitous nuclear fuel fire in America https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/05/20/19712/scientists-say-nuclear-fuel-pools-around-country-pose-safety-and-health-risks
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/burning-reactor-fuel-could-have-worsened-fukushima-disaster
Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire, [8] the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated. [9] For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl).
A typical 1 GWe PWR core contains about 80 t fuels. Each year about one third of the core fuel is discharged into the pool. A pool with 15 year storage capacity will hold about 400 t spent fuel. To estimate the Cs-137 inventory in the pool, for example, we assume the Cs137 inventory at shutdown is about 0.1 MCi/tU with a burn-up of 50,000 MWt-day/tU, thus the pool with 400 t of ten year old SNF would hold about 33 MCi Cs-137. [7]
http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html
Containing radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago, more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together need to be removed from a building that is vulnerable to collapse, should another large earthquake hit the area. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion. In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material – See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html
Once the fuel is uncovered, it could become hot enough to cause the metal cladding encasing the uranium fuel to rupture and catch fire, which in turn could further heat up the fuel until it suffers damage. Such an event could release large amounts of radioactive substances, such as cesium-137, into the environment. This would start in more recently discharged spent fuel, which is hotter than fuel that has been in the pool for a longer time. A typical spent fuel pool in the United States holds several hundred tons of fuel, so if a fire were to propagate from the hotter to the colder fuel a radioactive release could be very large.
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/making-nuclear-power-safer/handling-nuclear-waste/safer-storage-of-spent-fuel.html#.VUp3n5Om2J8
According to Dr. Kevin Crowley of the Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board, “successful terrorist attacks on spent fuel pools, though difficult, are possible. If an attack leads to a propagating zirconium cladding fire, it could result in the release of large amounts of radioactive material.”[12] The Nuclear Regulatory Commission after the September 11, 2001 attacks required American nuclear plants “to protect with high assurance” against specific threats involving certain numbers and capabilities of assailants. Plants were also required to “enhance the number of security officers” and to improve “access controls to the facilities”.
The committee judges that successful terrorist attacks on spent fuel pools, though difficult, are possible. If an attack leads to a propagating zirconium cladding fire, it could result in the release of large amounts of radioactive material. The committee concluded that attacks by knowledgeable terrorists with access to appropriate technical means are possible. The committee identified several terrorist attack scenarios that it believed could partially or completely drain a spent fuel pool and lead to zirconium cladding fires. Details are provided in the committee’s classified report. I cannot discuss the details here.
http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-spent-fuel-pools-secure/p8967
If any of the spent fuel rods in the pools do indeed catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity.
“It’s worse than a meltdown,” said David A. Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists who worked as an instructor on the kinds of General Electric reactors used in Japan. “The reactor is inside thick walls, and the spent fuel of Reactors 1 and 3 is out in the open.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16fuel.html
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere.
Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies. One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Today there are 103 active nuclear power reactors in the U.S. They generate 2,000 metric tons of spent nuclear waste per year and to date have accumulated 71,862 tons of spent fuel, according to industry data.[vi] Of that total, 54,696 tons are stored in cooling pools and only 17,166 tons in the relatively safer dry cask storage. http://www.psr.org/environment-and-health/environmental-health-policy-institute/responses/the-growing-problem-of-spent-nuclear-fuel.html
Spent fuel fire on U.S. soil could dwarf impact of Fukushima
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/spent-fuel-fire-us-soil-could-dwarf-impact-fukushima
A fire from spent fuel stored at a U.S. nuclear power plant could have catastrophic consequences, according to new simulations of such an event.
A major fire “could dwarf the horrific consequences of the Fukushima accident,” says Edwin Lyman, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit in Washington, D.C. “We’re talking about trillion-dollar consequences,” says Frank von Hippel, a nuclear security expert at Princeton University, who teamed with Princeton’s Michael Schoeppner on the modeling exercise.
….the national academies’s report warns that spent fuel accumulating at U.S. nuclear plants is also vulnerable. After fuel is removed from a reactor core, the radioactive fission products continue to decay, generating heat. All nuclear power plants store the fuel onsite at the bottom of deep pools for at least 4 years while it slowly cools. To keep it safe, the academies report recommends that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and nuclear plant operators beef up systems for monitoring the pools and topping up water levels in case a facility is damaged. The panel also says plants should be ready to tighten security after a disaster.
At most U.S. nuclear plants, spent fuel is densely packed in pools, heightening the fire risk. NRC has estimated that a major fire at the spent fuel pool at the Peach Bottom nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania would displace an estimated 3.46 million people from 31,000 square kilometers of contaminated land, an area larger than New Jersey. But Von Hippel and Schoeppner think that NRC has grossly underestimated the scale and societal costs of such a fire.
And the good news is . . . ?
I’d like to say that the animals return to the pre-industrial factory food state… however… they will be eating spent fuel as well… 🙁
Thanks for the info on the looming disaster of spent fuel ponds and Cesium-137. I consider you the Chief Archon here on matters of nuclear apocalypse and vaccine depopulation.
Speaking of archons, I had a dream of some future conflict in Israel resulting in Cesium radiation poisoning. Another dream showed this elite group meeting in secret with plans to cull the “profane masses.” Engineers were studying the infrastructure while identical retriever dogs were jumping from the upper decks into a water-filled, empty sports stadium like lemmings.
I live within 10 minutes of Three Mile Island. I was 4 years old when the Peanut Farmer paid a visit and we were considering an evacuation to the cabin. My friend’s family lived in Middletown across from TMI. His father died of a brain tumor and his sister was born with a rare metabolic disorder where she never grew over 4 feet tall and would eat all the food in the kitchen until she died.. so they had to lock the pantry and refrigerator.
Nasty stuff but I love the people in my life and enjoy their company. The simple choice to share a couple more minutes with them before the radioactive gas cloud comes is our nuclear option.
Check this one out:
https://www.pahighways.com/features/threemileisland.html
Thanks Fast Eddy!
https://www.pahighways.com/features/threemileisland.html
Hubbs & Replenish > but these are still the lowest amperage (single phase) systems, you can’t run serious water pump or machinery on it (as opposed to the legacy grid or serious off grid setup matched capability which is ~10x the price then) – so overall this is more or less tiny basal emergency setup.. I guess you get it but very few people otherwise are able to acknowledge this angle..
Yes good point. Unfortunately we don’t have much winter sun at the cabin location even for a larger system. We have 30 acres, 2/3 wooded with a sloped 5 acre field and another 5 acres of afternoon sun facing, overgrown pasture land hidden from the road at the other end of the property.
The idea was to use the solar system until we settle into long term daily living with some infrastructure in place and hone our survival skills without electricity. On the other hand, I stocked up on a Lehman water bucket with 250′ of 3/8″ polychord, hand saws, gardening tools, utility and sanitation items. Also there are approximately 60 whitetail deer per square mile in that area for a source of protein. Thanks for the article and the reply!
As I often opine: infinite growth, finite planet; what could possibly go wrong? We are so far into ecological overshoot that there’s no saving us. But don’t count on the ruling class to do much more than leverage the crisis to their advantage as they always seem to do.
I am afraid you are right!
Shortage of gas this Winter in Italia?
Probably.
In fact, Green pass will be a sort of Tessera annonaria.
I hope people will understand quickly and stop talking about leaking vaccines and herd immunity, which is simply an impossible combination.
https://guerrainfame.it/razionamento_e_tesseramento
Keep us posted. We can see things going wrong. It is hard to tell the precise timing, however.
Great article
A good question. Thank you 🌍😊
Excellent dear Gail. Thank you for this. The ‘invention’ of fiat currencies, or, ‘infinite world money, was our mayor flaw. Too many people coming out of debt induced growth. We turned a swamp into a vulcano. For a quick profit.
We are a bodybuilder on steroids, with biceps to the moon. A heart attack is unavoidable.
Norway: Petroleum production
https://www.npd.no/en/facts/production/
The peak year for oil seems to have been 2000. The amount for 2021 seems to be a partial year.
Price escalation is for sure being noticed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kemp-worldwide-energy-shortage-shows-surging-coal-gas-and-oil-prices
This sounds like an article I should read.
I did get a chance to look at the article now. It has a lot of good charts. It ends with the view,
“With large sections of the global economy operating at close to full capacity, the energy system is struggling to meet incremental demand and prices are accelerating as a result.’
The big sector that is not operating is international travel by jet. Even without this, the system is stressed out.
“Just how bad could things get this winter? European energy crisis is about to go global”
https://www.rt.com/business/535612-europe-energy-crisis-global/
It was only a matter of time, really. In a globalized world, energy crunches can hardly remain regionally contained for very long, especially in a context of damaged supply chains and a rush to cut investment in fossil fuels.
The energy crunch that began in Europe earlier this month may now be on its way to America. For now, all is well with one of the world’s top gas producers. US gas exporters have enjoyed a solid increase in demand from Asia and Europe as the recovery in economic activity pushed demand for electricity higher. According to a recent Financial Times report, there is a veritable bidding war for US cargos of liquefied natural gas between Asian and European buyers – and the Asians are winning.
I am wondering if US readers will be at all interested in this story. Natural gas normally is of much less interest than oil. Problems in Europe don’t get reported much in US papers.
They probably won’t be interested in this story because they’ll be too focused on empty store shelves. A new customer of mine needed a window part for her car and all the car dealers have it on back order well into late next month. So I convinced her to go with an aftermarket part which is available.