Many countries have assumed that natural gas imports will be available for balancing electricity produced by intermittent wind and solar, whenever they are needed. The high natural gas import prices recently being encountered in Europe, and especially in the UK, appear to be an indication of an underlying problem. Could the world already be hitting natural gas limits?
One reason few people expect a problem with natural gas is because of the immense quantities reported as proven reserves. For all countries combined, these reserves at December 31, 2020 were equal to 48.8 times world natural gas production in 2020. Thus, in theory, the world could continue to produce natural gas at the current rate for almost 50 years, without even trying to find more natural gas resources.
Ratios of natural gas reserves to production vary greatly by country, giving a hint that the indications may be unreliable. High reserves make an exporting country appear to be dependable for many years in the future, whether or not this is true.
As I see the issue, these reserves are unlikely to be produced unless world oil prices rise to a level close to double what they are today and stay at such a high level for several years. I say this because the health of the oil and gas industries are closely intertwined. Of the two, oil has historically been the major profit-maker, enabling adequate funds for reinvestment. Prices have been too low for oil producers for about eight years now, cutting back on investment in new fields and export capability. This low-price issue is what seems to be leading to limits to the natural gas supply, as well as a limit to the oil supply.
In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved. In some ways, a dire situation already seems to be developing.
[1] Taking a superficial world view, natural gas seems to be doing fairly well. It is only when a person starts analyzing some of the pieces that problems start to become clear.
Figure 3 shows that natural gas supply has been rising, year after year. There was a brief dip in 2009, at the time of the Great Recession, and a slightly larger dip in 2020, related to COVID-19 restrictions. Overall, production has been growing at a steady rate. Compared to oil and coal, the recent growth pattern of natural gas has been more stable.
The quantity of exports of natural gas tends to be much more variable. Figure 4 compares inter-regional trade for coal and natural gas. Here, I have ignored local trade and only considered trade among fairly large blocks of countries, such as North America, Europe and Russia combined with its close affiliates.
If a person looks closely at the growth of natural gas imports in Figure 4, it becomes clear that growth in natural gas is a feast or famine proposition, given to upward spurts, dips and flat periods. It is my understanding that in the early years, natural gas was typically traded under long-term contracts, on a “take or pay” basis. The price was often tied to the oil price. This generous pricing structure allowed natural gas exports to grow rapidly in the 2000 to 2008 period. The Great Recession cut back the need for natural gas imports and also led to downward pressure on the pricing of exports.
After the Great Recession, natural gas import prices tended to fall below oil prices (Figure 5) except in Japan, where stability of supply is very important. Another change was that an increasing share of exported natural gas was sold in the “spot” market. These prices fluctuate depending on changes in supply and demand, making them much more variable.
Looking back at Figure 4, natural gas exports were close to flat between 2011 and 2016. Such flat exports, together with falling export prices in the 2013 to 2016 period (Figure 5), would have been a nightmare for oil and gas companies doing long-range planning for oil exports. Exports spurted upward in the 2016 to 2019 period, and then fell back in 2020 (Figure 4). All of the volatility in the growth rate of required new production, combined with uncertainty of the pricing of exports, reduced interest in planning for projects that would increase natural gas export capability.
[2] In 2021, quite a number of countries seem to be ramping up natural gas imports at the same time. This is likely one issue leading to the spiking spot prices in Europe for natural gas.
Now that the economy is recovering from the effects of COVID-19, Europe is trying to ramp up its natural gas imports, probably to a level above the import level in 2019. Figure shows that both China and Other Asia Pacific are also likely to be ramping up their imports, providing a great deal of competition for imports.
It is no surprise that China’s natural gas imports are rising rapidly. With China’s rapid economic growth, it needs energy resources of whatever kinds it can obtain. Natural gas is cleaner-burning than coal. The CO2 emitted when burning natural gas is lower, as well. (These climate benefits may be partially or fully offset by methane lost in shipping natural gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG), however.)
In Figure 6, the sudden appearance and rapid rise of Other Asia Pacific imports can be explained by the fact that this figure shows the net indications for a combination of natural gas importers (including South Korea, India, and Taiwan) and exporters (including Malaysia and Indonesia). In recent years, natural gas import growth has greatly exceeded export growth. It would not be surprising if this rapid rise continues, since this part of the world is one that has been increasing its manufacturing in recent years.
If anyone had stepped back to analyze the situation in 2019, it would have been clear that, in the near future, natural gas exports would need to be rising extremely rapidly to meet the needs of all of the importers simultaneously. The dip in Europe’s natural gas imports due to COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 temporarily hid the problem. Now that Europe is trying to get back to normal, there doesn’t seem to be enough to go around.
[3] Apart from the United States, it is hard to find a part of the world where natural gas exports are rapidly rising.
Russia+ is by far the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Even with Russia+’s immense exports, its total exports (about 10 exajoules a year, based on Figure 7) still fall short of Europe’s natural gas import needs (at least 12 exajoules a year, based on Figure 6). The dip in Russia+’s natural gas exports in 2020 no doubt reflects the fact that Europe’s imports fell in 2020 (Figure 6). Since these exports were mostly pipeline exports, there was no way that Russia+ could sell the unwanted natural gas elsewhere, lowering its total exports.
At this point, there seems to be little expectation for a major rise in natural gas exports from Russia+ because of a lack of capital to spend on such projects. Russia built the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it doesn’t seem to have a huge amount of new natural gas exports to put into the pipeline. As much as anything, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline seems to be a way of bypassing Ukraine with its exports.
Figure 7 shows that the Middle East’s natural gas exports rose in the period 2000 to 2011, but they have since leveled off. A major use for Middle Eastern natural gas is to produce electricity to support the local economies. Before the Middle East ramped up its natural gas production, much of the electricity was obtained by burning oil. The sales price the Middle East can get for selling its natural gas is far below the price it can get for selling oil, especially when the high cost of shipping the natural gas is considered. Thus, it makes sense for Middle Eastern countries to use the natural gas themselves, saving the oil, since the sale of oil produces more export revenue.
Africa’s natural gas exports have fallen, in part because of depletion of the early natural gas fields in Algeria. In theory, Africa’s natural gas exports could rise to a substantial level, but it is doubtful this will happen quickly because of the large amount of capital required to build LNG export facilities. Furthermore, Africa is badly in need of fuel for itself. Local authorities may decide that if natural gas is available, it should be used for the benefit of the people in the area.
Australia’s natural gas exports have risen mostly as a result of the Gorgon LNG Project off the northwest coast of Australia. This project was expected to be high cost at $37 billion when it was approved in 2009. The actual cost soared to $54 billion, according to a 2017 cost estimate. The high (and uncertain) cost of large LNG projects makes investors cautious regarding new investments in LNG exports. S&P Global by Platts reported in June, 2021, “Australia’s own exports are expected to be relatively stable in the coming years.” This statement was made after saying that a project in Mozambique, Africa, is being cancelled because of stability issues.
The country with the largest increase in natural gas exports in recent years is the United States. The US is not shown separately in Figure 7, but it represents the largest portion of natural gas exported from North America. Prior to 2017, North America was a net importer of natural gas, including LNG from Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, Algeria and elsewhere.
[4] The United States has a strange reason for wanting to export large quantities of natural gas overseas: Its natural gas prices have been too low for producers for a long time. Natural gas producers hope the exports will raise natural gas prices within the US.
Natural gas prices vary widely around the world because the fuel is expensive to ship and difficult to store. Figure 5 (above) shows that, at least since 2009, US natural gas prices have been unusually low.
The main reason why the price of natural gas dropped around 2009 seems to have been a ramp up in US shale oil production that started about this time. While the main objective of most of the shale drilling was oil, natural gas was a byproduct that came along. Oil producers were willing to almost give the natural gas away, if they could make money on the oil. However, they also had trouble making money on the oil extraction. That seems to be the reason why oil extraction from shale is now being reduced.
Figure 8 shows a chart prepared by the US Energy Administration showing US dry natural gas production, by type: non-shale, Appalachia shale and other shale.
Based on Figure 8, the timing of the ramp up of natural gas from shale seems to correspond with the timing in the drop in natural gas prices. By 2008 (the first year shown on this chart), gas from shale formations had risen to well over 10% of US natural gas production. At this level, it would be expected to have an impact on prices. Adding natural gas to an already well-supplied market would be likely to reduce US natural gas prices because, with natural gas, the situation isn’t “build it, and demand will come.”
People don’t raise the temperature to which they heat their homes, at least not very much, simply because the natural gas price is lower. The use of natural gas as a transport fuel has not caught on because of all of the infrastructure that would be required to enable the transition. The one substitution that has tended to take place is the use of natural gas to replace coal, particularly in electricity generation. This likely means that a major shift back to coal use cannot really be done, although a smaller shift can be done, and, in fact, seems to already be taking place, based on EIA data.
[5] The reason that limits are a concern for natural gas is because the economy is very much more interconnected, and much more dependent on energy, than most people assume.
I think of the economy as being interconnected in much the same way as the many systems within a human being are interconnected. For example, humans have a circulatory system, or perhaps several such circulatory systems, for different fluids; economies have highway systems and road systems, as well as pipeline systems.
Humans require food at regular intervals. They have a digestive system to help them digest this food. The food has to be of the right kinds, not all sweets, for example. The economy needs energy of the right kinds, as well. It has many kinds of devices that use this energy. Intermittent electricity from wind or solar, by itself, doesn’t really work.
Human beings have kinds of alarms that go off to tell if there is something wrong. They feel hungry if they haven’t eaten in a while. They feel thirsty if they need water to drink. They may feel overheated if an infection gives them a fever. An economy has alarms that go off, as well. Prices rise too high for consumers. Or, companies go bankrupt from low market prices for their products. Or, widespread defaults on loans become a problem.
The symptoms we are seeing now with the UK economy relate to a natural gas import system that is showing signs of distress. It is pleasant to think that the central bankers or public officials can fix all problems, but they really cannot, just as we cannot fix all problems with our health.
[6] Inexpensive energy plays an essential role in the economy.
We all know that inexpensive food is far preferable to expensive food in powering our own personal economies. For example, if we need to spend 14 hours producing enough food to live on (either directly by farming, or indirectly by earning wages to buy the food), it is clear that we will not be able to afford much of anything other than food. On the other hand, if we can produce food to live on in 30 minutes a day (directly or indirectly), then we can spend the rest of the day earning money to buy other goods and services. We likely can afford many kinds of goods and services. Thus, a low price for food makes a big difference.
It is the same way with the overall economy. If energy costs are low, the cost of producing food is likely low because the cost of using tractors, fertilizers, weed killers and irrigation is low. From the point of view of any manufacturer using electricity, low price is important in being able to produce goods that are competitive in the global marketplace. From the point of view of a homeowner, a low electricity price is important in order to have enough funds left over after paying the electricity bill to be able to afford other goods and services.
Economists seem to believe that high energy prices can be acceptable, especially if the price of fossil fuels rises because of depletion. This is not true, without adversely affecting how the economy functions. We can understand this problem at our household level; if food prices suddenly rise, the rest of our budget must shrink back.
[7] If energy prices spike, these high prices tend to push the economy into recession.
A key issue with fossil fuels is depletion. The resources that are the least expensive to access and remove tend to be extracted first. In theory, there is a great deal more fossil fuel available, if the price rises high enough. The problem is that there is a balancing act between what the producer needs and what the consumer can afford. If energy prices rise very high, consumers are forced to cut back on their spending, pushing the economy into recession.
High oil prices were a major factor pushing the United States and other major users of oil into the Great Recession of 2007-2009. See my article in Energy, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. In part, high oil prices made debt harder to repay, especially for low income workers with long commutes. It also made countries that used a significant share of oil in their energy mix less competitive in the world market.
The situation being encountered by some natural gas importers is indeed similar. Paying a very high price for imported natural gas is not a very acceptable situation. But not having electricity available or not being able to heat our homes is not very acceptable either.
[8] Conclusion. It is easy to be lulled into complacency by the huge natural gas reserves that seem to be available.
Unfortunately, it is necessary to build all of the infrastructure that is required to extract natural gas resources and deliver them to customers at a price that the customers can truly afford. At the same time, the price needs to be acceptable to the organization building the infrastructure.
Of course, more debt or money created out of thin air doesn’t solve the problem. Resources of many kinds need to be available to build the required infrastructure. At the same time, wages of workers need to be high enough that they can purchase the physical goods they require, including food, clothing, housing and basic transportation.
At this point, the problem with high prices is most noticeable in Europe, with its dependence on natural gas imports. Europe may just be the “canary in the coal mine.” The problem has the potential to spread to other natural gas prices and to other fossil fuel prices, pushing the world economy toward recession.
At a minimum, people planning the use of intermittent electricity from wind or solar should not assume that reasonably priced natural gas will always be available for balancing. One likely area for shortfall will be winter, as well as storing up reserves for winter (the problem affecting Europe now), since winter is when heating needs are the highest and solar resources are the lowest.
The Russian natgas storage in the EU is located in Germany, Holland and Austria. Maybe that explains why the storage level is low in those countries…and why European leaders are nervously screaming about natgas levels being too low?
Maybe it’s just a little bit about Russia putting some pressure on EU to certify the Nord Stream 2?
https://txti.es/covid-pass/images
This guy from Lithuania tells about life in society where green passes are now the name of the game. The said guy is vaccinated and describes what this means in green pass managed society. To be honest I don’t think that any sane person even vaccinated can enjoy such life.
Here is also one image which hints how the curve is gonna flatten after we vaccinate most of our society:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBM_wqjX0AAVTIE?format=jpg&name=small
Strange!
Sometimes reality isnway more stranger than fiction.
The CovIDIOTS think the injections get them a pass to the VIP lounge
This the actual tweet for the image Geno Mir posted. Note the sarcasm.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1446570012966363146
‘Send us home,’ beg Afghan refugees stuck in UK hotels
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/09/afghan-refugees-uk-hotels-operation-warm-welcome
Oh dear, they don’t like it here in England. How our homeless English street sleepers would love to be kept in a hotel, I’ll bet.
What can be done for those poor Afghans? Maybe Fast Eddy can arrange to set up a charity that will send them to the Moon, lol. It surely must be better there than in dreary collapsing England.
This is a great book — it explains what ‘home’ looked like in the Ghan the last time a foreign invader left
https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/steve-coll
For nearly the past quarter century, while most Americans were unaware, Afghanistan has been the playing field for intense covert operations by U.S. and foreign intelligence agencies-invisible wars which sowed the seeds of the September 11 attacks and which provide its context. From the Soviet invasion in 1979 through the summer of 2001, the CIA, KGB, Pakistan’s ISI, and Saudi Arabia’s General Intelligence Department all operated directly and secretly in Afghanistan. They primed Afghan factions with cash and weapons, secretly trained guerrilla forces, funded propaganda, and manipulated politics. In the midst of these struggles bin Laden conceived and then built his global organization.
Comprehensively and for the first time, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Steve Coll tells the secret history of the CIA’s role in Afghanistan, from its covert program against Soviet troops from 1979 to 1989, to the rise of the Taliban and the emergence of bin Laden, to the secret efforts by CIA officers and their agents to capture or kill bin Laden in Afghanistan after 1998. Based on extensive firsthand accounts, Ghost Wars is the inside story that goes well beyond anything previously published on U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. It chronicles the roles of midlevel CIA officers, their Afghan allies, and top spy masters such as Bill Casey, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al Faisal, and George Tenet. And it describes heated debates within the American government and the often poisonous, mistrustful relations between the CIA and foreign intelligence agencies.
Ghost Wars answers the questions so many have asked since the horrors of September 11: To what extent did America’s best intelligence analysts grasp the rising threat of Islamist radicalism? Who tried to stop bin Laden and why did they fail?
“Who tried to stop bin Laden and why did they fail?”
The US certainly didn’t try to stop Bin Laden. They used him as a patsy – a useful idiot – for years. After all, who did 9/11? Bin Laden – while sitting in a cave like some James Bond baddie? Forget it. Was it Iraq? No – the US accused Iraq of having WMD and invaded (helped by Blair). Nothing was found. But oil-rich Iraq was brought back under US control. Mission accomplished!
FE, you mentioned this a few days ago?
Entirety Of Lebanon Goes Dark, Mass Power Outage To Last Several Days
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/entirety-lebanon-goes-dark-mass-power-outage-last-several-days
Yep, but now it seems as nationwide “deep blackout” – this is very rare.. hard and slow to restart back again, various msm ran the story in recent hours: DW, RT, .. on ytube..
Lebanon becoming the collapse (sequencing) lab to study?
There are tons of videos on their banking system problem, or earlier waves of political reshuffles etc., but the following one is a bit special more focused on the general underlying decay vectors (filmed Q4 2020), notice upper middle classes falling through, city dweller’s escape-moving to the country for low grade gardening etc..
https://media.giphy.com/media/GgbCiS1rMjGFy/giphy.gif
Ex-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn is there in Lebanon. Wonder if he has electricity…..
Assuming he’s got large estate – residence there, so at the minimum running generators and most likely decent batt storage, perhaps he slacked on that, so now only lights and fridges running, but voluptuous jacuzzi / swimming pool temporary out of service.. too bad..
“Nigeria’s economic landscape is on the brink of collapse, needing urgent and swift action by President Muhammadu Buhari to rescue it from imminent collapse.
“Archbishop Israeli Afolabi Amoo of the Kwara Province of the Church of Nigeria (Anglican Communion)… said: “President Buhari needs to act fast because insecurity has taken its toll on the nation’s economy. Sadly, matters have now gone from bad to worse. And never in our sociopolitical history has the shadow of failed nationhood been so palpable.””
https://www.newtelegraphng.com/cleric-to-buhari-act-fast-nigerias-economy-near-collapse/
“No fewer than 10 persons were feared dead, Friday, as soldiers clashed with youths of Umuokwu Izombe community in Oguta Local Government Area of Imo State…
““Government should please intervene in the situation and save our lives”, the source cried out.”
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/10/many-killed-houses-burnt-as-soldiers-youths-clash-in-imo/
“Nigeria: Debt – “We Borrowed Our Way Out of Recessions” – Buhari.
“President Muhammadu Buhari has disclosed that the government used borrowing to stimulate the economy as response to the two recent economic recessions the country experienced.”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202110080012.html
“Despite the growing debt profile, the Buhari administration will borrow N5.01 trillion to fund the proposed 2022 budget.”
Things don’t change!
Perhaps Nigeria will be the first oil exporter to collapse (unless we count Libya as having collapsed, or Venezuela). If Nigeria falls into several warring parts, it will be difficult to get oil exported from Nigeria.
It split before. That ended badly, but Igbo nationalism persists. No doubt it’ll be backed by the French the next time as well.
Lithuania has implemented the Covid Pass. It’s Draconian. People with children lose their jobs. No income. Can’t by anything. Sales are down 25%. There’s a black market for those who have cash.
They don’t care. They want to them dead. The “Mark of the Beast” will lead to the “Gates of Hell”.
They are going to save energy this way.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gluboco/status/1446134032027176965
Yes, save energy by eliminating those who will not give in to authoritarianism.
Destroy the very best people in the community – quite brilliant!
“EMS services warn of ‘crippling labor shortage’ undermining 911 system…
“The pandemic-induced shortage of emergency medical technicians and paramedics nationwide is so dire that ambulance service providers warn of sharp cuts to services and longer waits for 911 calls — even when it’s a matter of life or death.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ems-services-warn-crippling-labor-shortage-undermining-911-system-rcna2677
“Child-Care Crisis Keeps U.S. Women Out of Workforce for Longer.
“Female employment last month fell for the first time since the winter coronavirus surge in December 2020, even as many schools reopened.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-09/child-care-crisis-keeps-u-s-women-out-of-workforce-for-longer
“The data suggest that uncertainty around the coronavirus delta variant, which has led to quarantines and a partial return to virtual learning in some cases, will continue to keep parents from seeking a job.”
Is that bad?
Other than for the producers of consumer products one might wonder if the cost of childcare in its entirety has ever made any sense.
It does not seem our current society works very well, time for change.
Dennis L.
Another way to reduce the population!
But… but… “Who will clean Jeff Bezos’ toilet then?”
DE Shaw
“China Evergrande Group, under siege from creditors, investors and suppliers has taken action against half a dozen company insiders for front-running their wealth management customers, bowing to pressure from furious clients and local authorities across the country.”
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3151787/evergrande-reprimands-insiders-hitting-exit-ahead-wealth-product
“Social Unrest is Beijing’s Chief Concern in Dealing With Evergrande’s Debt Debacle…
“The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) appears to be proceeding with a controlled sell-off of the company’s assets, leaving investors short-changed… It is common knowledge that Evergrande chairman Xu Jiayin’s favored business model is to sell properties at a discount, and in large volumes.”
https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/china-evergrande-10082021100549.html
“The Chinese developer behind a massive Australian apartment project plagued by poor workmanship is struggling to repay debts, putting owners at risk of huge losses.
“Yunnan Metropolitan Construction Investment Australia’s ambitious $5billion Ovation Quarter project in western Sydney, which planned for 4,500 units, has come under ASIC scrutiny over company ‘deficits’ that have spiralled out to $83million.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10074723/Chinese-developer-defect-plagued-apartment-project-collapse-leaving-homeowners-scared.html
This sounds like a way to worsen the relationship between Australia and China.
Allowing company insiders to come out ahead is a way to make citizens very unhappy.
“Energy crisis: [UK] Gas levy ‘expected to be confirmed in next two weeks’ despite rising prices.
“The move to fund low-carbon alternatives is likely to prove controversial, with people already wrestling with rising costs in the face of increased wholesale prices…”
https://news.sky.com/story/energy-crisis-gas-levy-threatens-to-fuel-soaring-household-energy-bills-12429745
Clueless on both sides of the border: “Energy crisis is ‘excellent example’ of why Scotland needs independence…
“Speaking to The National ahead of the Party’s conference in Edinburgh this weekend, Scottish Greens co-leader, Lorna Slater, said that the energy crisis is due to a lack of investment in renewable infrastructure by the UK Government.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19636447.energy-crisis-excellent-example-scotland-needs-independence/
“UK factories and industrial plants are already slowing down production amid rocketing gas prices, industry boss warns amid growing calls for government support and fears for thousands of jobs.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10075149/Industry-boss-warns-factories-slowing-production-amid-rocketing-gas-prices.html
UK is already headed into recession.
If Scots opt out, then the UK could become the Old Kingdom (assuming that Wales stays) – or the OK – as in ‘OK’ magazine and ‘OK, yah!’ It sounds better than the Former UK anyway (F/K). I ought to do ‘stand up’.
“The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, But Not Scotland” has a certain ring to it.
If Scots opt out? Haven’t you been banging a boring “when” rather than an “if”” drum on here for months?
Looks like that once in a generation” referendum is going to stay that way. Or do you think Nic will succeed in getting her referendum and then lose again?
Darling, you ought to remember what Nicola said earlier in the week. Let me tap a drum kit to both illuminate and enliven the matter for you. OK?
Yes, indeed, charmingly gloating over the demise of the elderly anti independence voters, helpfully assisted by her botched handling of Covid in old people’s homes. The more likely phenomenon is callow young enthusiasts mature and recognize independence as a great national wrist slashing, dismissing nationalism as a youthful fad like staying up all night and getting weird haircuts.
I quite admired the Sandinistas in my adolescence. What was your fad?
The analogue is limited. Polls over the long-term show that support for independence is carrying over into older groups as the younger age. Independence does not seem to have the same demographic ‘dynamics’ as far leftism.
There is nothing wrong with pointing out demographic trends, and it is low for unionists to equate that with ‘gloating over the death of the elderly.’ I do not suppose the British are especially given to fabricating nonsense in the place of serious arguments.
According to the article,
“Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has also insisted that by decarbonising the UK’s power supply, the government would ensure households are less exposed to swings in fossil fuel markets.”
If the households are dead, I suppose they are less exposed to swings in the fossil fuel markets.
“Correct, Gail. We’re going to decarbonize the households, too.” – Kwasi Kwarteng
I went in yesterday to buy a phone. The stores were all low in stock, especially of anything “lower-grade” (less than $1,000). One wonders if the manufacturers are prioritizing iphones and high end androids, which probably cost the same to produce and have a higher margin.
It’s interest. In the last ten years smart phones have become an absolute must have for people. I wonder when they’ll revert to being for the wealthy only. I know people who would risk going hungry just to own a smart phone.
https://i.pcmag.com/imagery/articles/039ukQ3xsQzd8C1EN3MshzU-4.1569486324.fit_lim.size_1600x900.png
Jimothy,
Respectful question: Why are smart phones a must have? I do have a desk top computer with an internet connection so not having an internet connection might change things.
I love my flip phone simply because it is very small and easy to carry, for navigation my auto maps do well for me as I can memorize my route, should I get off my route, well, then stop and read the map.
Thanks,
Dennis L.
Geno, thank you for the infographic.
I don’t personally consider them a must-have. I think that it’s a marketing and cultural thing, and people have become acclimated to having it. And they have become acclimated to those around them having it as well.
I was talking to a friend about this last night, and she agreed with me that people act as though smartphones have been available as far back as 200 BCE. Life without them is totally unimaginable to many. It’s interesting, because as you say, there are viable alternatives to all of their functions.
I really think it’s psychological, and status-related. People’s worth is based on “doing well,” which at a minimum means having certain things (often a car and phone, even over a decent living situation)
It’s interesting because I often see other farmers go into town dressed decently (worn out jeans, used button up shirts) but not to the nines. Where I am farmers are actually doing well, as food prices are high and the population is growing. And their assets (land and housing) have skyrocketed. But farmers tend to live within or under their means, which entails not dressing to the nines for errands.
The city/town people, who are poor as dirt, eye them with contempt and arrogance. They have on cheap poorly made imitations of today’s top fashion and think they are making it. Yet these people are making $13 an hour at best buy, and are one paycheck away from having nothing. It’s an interesting disparity in individual realities.
There is something about being a farmer, we seem to sense a fellow farmer in a group; it is a quiet “snobbishness” without being snobbish, we are part of a very small group and it is a privilege to own land.
Dennis L.
Death to All Farmers. They are why there are 8B people
So many online financial sites ask for your smart phone number now, and if you enter a landline number, it gets rejected. I did some online thing for a solicitor, then it came to a requirement for a smart phone photo of yourself. Scans of photos, which I could have provided via my desktop, were not permitted.
So my neighbour kindly photographed my passport page for me. Proceeding once more, I was asked to use my smart phone to translate an online QR code as a ‘captcha’ test. At that point I gave up. Only later did I discover a free program for desktops that recognised QR codes: CodeTwo QR Code Desktop Reader & Generator.
Why don’t these people realise that not everybody wants or needs a smart phone? It’s just a gadget for midgets, and you have to wait till it charges up. Landlines and desktops can be used immediately. Until the rolling blackouts, that is, that are surely coming here soon to England.
My iphone is a hand over from a family member – we hand things on as we upgrade. TBH I use it only to control my Bang and Olufsen headphones, and for facetime chats – or at least I did before I was handed over an ipad, which does the same. I do not hand out my phone number anyway, I have a landline with an answer machine for incoming calls – ‘leave a message’.
I would not say that either of them are ‘essential’, it is all stuff that one could do with other devices – but one sort of ‘feels’ that one ought to have them. ‘What, no iphone?’ sort of thing. ‘Keeping up with the Joneses’ – while sending them through to the answer machine. Whatever.
The EU is to make proposals in an attempt to ease Tory belligerence over the NI Protocol. Cast as the ‘sausage wars’ in the tabloid press, the EU is to permit sausages from Britain, and stilton cheese, to be labelled as ‘for UK only’ and to be sold in NI.
An irony is that the best selling sausage brand in Britain is Irish anyway, Richmonds, part of the Kerry Group and headquartered in Dublin. They are 40% pork and the rest is wheat and fat, proudly ‘prepared to an Irish recipe’, ‘the nation’s favourite’. Whatever. They really are not all that, and supermarkets’ own are IMO preferable. Hardly fancy fair in any case.
Anyway, EU member states could say no, and the Tories could demand more ‘concessions’. The ‘sausage wars’ may end in a ‘kiss and make up’ or still head for a ‘big bust up’. We shall see.
https://www.ft.com/content/84767549-757e-4844-b4b0-3ae20f9ce385
> Brussels offers to scrap many N Ireland border controls to ease tensions
Food products would be labelled ‘UK only’ and not cross to Ireland, but offer falls short of demands
…. Until now the European Commission had said it could only drop checks if the UK signs an agreement to align its food rules with the EU’s, which would prohibit it from developing its own food regulations and could restrict trade with non-EU countries.
But a commission paper, expected to be approved next week, will suggest that certain British goods such as sausages and bacon could enter the province. They would also cover other food easily identifiable as British, such as Stilton cheese, ending the need for the complicated veterinary forms required for many products. The products would have to be labelled as UK only and not cross the border to Ireland.
However, the offer appears to fall far short of British demands that trade with Belfast should be as easy as trade with Birmingham. Food such as a ham sandwich or packet of crisps could still require extensive paperwork, deterring businesses from sending them to Northern Ireland.
Lord David Frost, Brexit secretary, has threatened to suspend the Northern Ireland protocol by invoking Article 16 of the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement, unless almost all checks are scrapped.
The UK government said on Friday: “As we have said before, chilled meats is just one issue out of many that need to be resolved if the protocol is to be put on a sustainable footing . . . Significant changes must be made to the protocol in order to protect the Belfast [Good Friday] Agreement and the peace process.”
The commission has already agreed to permit the free circulation of medicines from Great Britain, amending a law that prohibits third countries from licensing medicines used in the single market for the first time. Had Northern Ireland’s NHS had to purchase supplies independently, its costs would have sharply increased.
EU officials say the total number of customs checks could be cut in half. The UK has started building a software system that EU customs officers could access in real time.
“We have been searching hard for ideas. We want to create the space for a solution,” said one EU official. “We are taking a risk. We need the UK to co-operate with us, for example on access to databases. Any solution will need to protect the single market. The most important thing is peace and stability in Northern Ireland.”
Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission vice-president who drew up the package, has worked hard to square other commissioners who fear it could set a precedent for the British to push for further concessions.
The 27 member states could yet demand tougher measures.
European Union needs to increase its natgas inventories? I don’t know. I know that Russia has storage capacity in the EU and they are empty now, since they are filling up their domestic storage.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAkIIbnWQAYfkjc?format=png&name=900×900
Bei I would have only one subscriber for my “Crazy Newsletter”… what’s the point?
Netherlands, Germany, and Austria are especially low. The EU total is a little lower than the 2016 and 2017 fill percentages, but not remarkably so. If there is a steady flow of LNG, a person would think that the countries could “top off” any shortfalls.
The key difference though being the chilly temps, sub zero mornings already.. while mid 2010s in October was almost like late ~August..
“Beneath the headline storage numbers… there’s a gaping hole stretching from the North Sea to the Alpine valleys. Inventory in the Netherlands, Germany and Austria is below the average for the continent, ranging from just 55% full in Austria to slightly less than 70% in Germany.
“These three countries not only host roughly half of Europe’s entire capacity, they are strategically located right at the centre of the system, providing de facto capacity for areas around them such as the U.K. and Eastern and Southern Europe.
“In a pinch — a particularly cold week combined with low wind power, say — you need volume, but you also need flexibility on a gas system [or] you get regional price spikes… Moreover, as gas inventories run down, pressure in storage sites drops, making it harder to quickly ramp up withdrawals, compounding the problem.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/theres-a-hole-at-the-heart-of-europes-gas-supply/2021/10/08/c17b7628-2845-11ec-8739-5cb6aba30a30_story.html
“Serbia won’t phase out coal-fired power plants anytime soon as it needs them to deal with the current energy crunch, President Aleksandar Vucic said, defying European pressure to speed up its energy transition to cleaner fuels.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-09/energy-crisis-pushes-serbia-to-keep-coal-power-president-says
Serbia has some sense!
You can make a case that, if indeed our predicament is all-encompassing and the best we can do is prolong industrial civilisation a little, burning the dirtiest coal with the best dimming properties is the sensible thing to do.
The smog and pollution would be pretty miserable but I suppose you can’t make an omelette without breaking a few eggs.
If I remember correctly serbia has one of the largest coal reserves in europe. Furthermore some of the best paying jobs in the country are those of coal miners.
Good points! Netherlands, Germany and Austria provide de facto capacity for the areas around them. There is a whole large area, in the center, that has too little in storage.
I recommend buying plenty of blankets…
Then hunker down with a good book .. and wait to starve… unless you are already dead from Mareks…. btw – it’s more deadly than Ebola…. just a touch .. and you’re dead.
Here Comes Extinction … I know people are resisting the CEP….
But let’s be honest… deep down inside we all know that’s the plan
So according to this tweet from a doctor. He says that members from Congress decided to get treated with Ivermectin instead of The Jab. According to him, none have gone to hospital.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/do-as-i-command-not-as-i-do-2
How does one verify?
Dennis L.
There is a long list of doctor shown on the FLCCC website. They are licensed in different states and give different types of advice. It seems like it would be hard for FLCCC to know that 100 to 200 members of Congress had had services from these doctors, and none of them went to the hospital.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Congress-special-treatment.jpg
Delhi usually has coal supplies for 1 month, but is now down to 1 day. There are rolling blackouts around in India.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/blackouts-likely-in-delhi-after-2-days-if-coal-supply-not-restored-minister-2569709?_gl=1*1v7qdst*_ga*ekNtY1dGMVEyN0loLThEbTNka0hGdjRCanhzVmw3a0Q4WnVqTkpHREdfdjRqYk15aUtGMGlQWVNyUkF2WGFOdw..#comments_result
And we depend on India for quite a few things. They are very important in the supply chains for generic drugs, I understand.
The Indian owner of the health food shop I use told me that he has about 5 suppliers in India for supplements high in demand, such as NAC, and most are already overwhelmed.
Power cuts would be simply disastrous, for both Indians and the West, if prolonged.
On the other hand, power cuts in the West might make the vaxx campaign grind to halt, which would be delightful!
Good thing my only supplement is vitamin D, and that surely does not come from India (as it is made with lanolin, the fat found on cow hides).
That is new information to me. Thanks!
Lanolin is extracted from wool. It makes wool water proof.
Lanolin is easily derived from sheep wool. I don’t think anyone use bovine fats for producing lanolin in industrial quantities.
I think it was on your blog where I read that in the collapse the electric power would be the first to produce failures. Like the last one after coal and oil in reverse order, it is the first to fall.
Electricity was slow to reach rural areas. Even now, there are lots of problems with outages, after storms and otherwise. It is impossible for me to believe that electricity will last longer than oil. In fact, it may disappear sooner. Look at Lebanon today.
The people with coal, butane, wood, paraffin, candles, in storage will be better positioned than those who have gone all-electric, at least in the short-term and for as long as they can secure it.
While billions re-invested into “London” by many moguls of India.. what a joke..
European Union natgas inventories are 75% filled. No real crisis.
I guess it’s China with rolling blackouts that is pushing up the spot market price for both coal and natgas.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FAkIIbjWQAcMcsZ?format=png&name=900×900
That chart does not show that the EUs dependence on natural gas is increasing, thus the yearly average of stored gas needs to increase.
Good point! Generation based on coal is falling, as is generation from nuclear. The shortfall needs to be made up with natural gas, because renewables provide nowhere nearly enough supply.
Getting away from vaccines and back on topic.
There is a total blackout in Lebanon today. They can’t afford to fuel their oil fired powerstations.
This isn’t new for Lebanon but it looks like this could go on for days.
Meanwhile in the UK the Tory government is agonising over whether or not to subsidise heavy energy use industry such as steel and glassmaking.
Oh, and they are panic buying in the supermarkets again.
I am sure that the people in Lebanon are panicked about the situation. What can they do? Perhaps they have gotten used to electricity outages and learned how to cope.
The UK recently seemed to have panic buying of fuel at the pump. Now you say it has panic buying at the supermarket. Food and fuel are things that it is hard to stock up on to any great extent. I am sure the UK would like to stay away from a Lebanon-like situation as long as possible.
I would say the panic buying in the UK is being driven more by the haulage crisis than worrying signs about growing inflation. It seems to be more a London thing at the moment. I haven’t noticed shortages here in Yorkshire.
One thing that is becoming noticeably scarce in the UK are new cars. Used cars are becoming very expensive. Fuel prices at the pumps are creeping up too. Around 40% higher than in the depths of the covid lock down.
It will be an eye opener around April time when energy bills go up with a bang.
All in all the cost of living is going to become a real issue soon. If this continues and there is every sign it is going to, there will be a lot of lower paid families who won’t be able to make ends meet before much longer.
In Italia you must wait 6 months for new car Skoda or Renoult and 1 year forvone audi. Used Cars are not a lot now. All solded and price of used Cars rise
Here in the UK the Daily Mail have run an alarmist story today suggesting it is not going to be long before used cars sell for more than new ones!
That would properly be a sign of the shite hitting the fan. Beyond anything we would normally expect to see.
It may be that this problem is particularly acute in the UK because of Brexit. That said, I think used cars are becoming expensive in the US too.
My brother bought A6 from 2012 in August for 9K euros. Now he is offered 13k from a potential buyer and the same model on the used car sites can be seen for 14-15k euros.
the used market is certainly fetching a premium here in the U.S. – seems everybody’s got a story or heard a story since the new truck lots went barren a few months ago (easy visual when driving by them)
have not heard that backwardation is the case so far but it is an interesting phenomenon to ponder, i.e., comparing vehicles to commodity markets, and that will surely be a head-turner if it occurs here.
pediatrician neighbor has been shopping junk-yards with his med-school daughter to keep her car in shape; he says she’s taken a quite a shine to the hands-on. I’ve been saying for years that the junk-yard guys are going to be in the cat-seat someday, especially one’s with the ‘all sales final’ clause.
In a smallish supermarket ,in this London suburb, the toilet paper and kitchen towels had certainly been cleaned out. Frozen peas are also absent without leave. Nothing else really, loads of fresh produce.
But no sign of my favourite brand of potato crisps – the greedy, anti-social, pre-crime domestic terrorist hoarding fiends!
My Labrador’s favourite brand of bacon-flavoured treats were absent from the shelves this morning, so the poor creature has had to make do with inferior Pedigree Schmackos – an innocent and tragic victim of supply-chain malfunctions.
Perhaps I am anthropomorphising a little but her huge, brown eyes seem full of hurt, confusion and reproach.
A Schmacko Moment: pretty terrible for a dog of taste!
I’m afraid an adjustment of canine expectations may be on the cards…..
When the canine becomes a schmacko for its owner?
Hopefully the vaccines can accelerate the launch of Devil Covid soon so that these poor Lebanese don’t suffer too much
Everything is OK. Another beautiful fall day in New England. BAU tonight baby!!!
The difficulty of transporting natural gas and coal have somewhat isolated the US from the problems elsewhere, at least for a little while. Prices are rising for all fossil fuels in the US, but so far, the results haven’t really affected people’s pocket books. For one thing, heating bills are normally very low at this time of year. Perhaps prices for electricity are rising, but no one puts the price on billboards, the way the price of gasoline is advertised. It seems to be available.
There were a couple of hurricanes that made landfall this year, but their impact was mostly on the oil and gas industries, so no one thinks much about this. US electricity infrastructure was not badly hit this year. Things seem to be going well, in that direction.
Kurtt dude!
yes you are so right!
You could be in Lebanon….
Here we go!!!!
What better way to cross-pollinate the Injected CovIDIOTS with Covid as we march towards Human Mareks. Singapore needs to share some of their record mutants…. invite in some variants from the UK and US….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-09/singapore-opens-quarantine-free-entry-from-u-s-u-k-others?srnd=premium-asia
I see that Singapore is still doing testing, but not as much:
“The number of Covid tests will be cut from four to two [for vaccinated travelers who come into the country], helping to reduce cost and inconvenience, according to authorities.”
The letter Q often appears in crop circles. Experiencers where told to follow Q(anon).
Q(anon) told his followers to fight for God against the Satanic Cabal that is sacrificing children in Satanic rituals.
It is the strangest PsyOp I’ve ever seen. It ended with the storming of Capitol Hill.
The phenomenon is painting our governments as evil, as the Satanic Cabal.
Maybe they want to come down from Heavens as our saviours?
Seems legit…
October XV
The “Gate of Hell” will be inaugurated and Vaxx passports (Sign of the Beast) will be implemented October XV.
The number XV is The Devil in Tarot cards.
They are our guardians (guardian angels). The Council of four (The four horsemen of the Apocalypse) have arrived to separate the wheat from the chaff.
They are playing the Bible against us. No idea why they put up this show.
https://mobile.twitter.com/00Lo_oP00/status/1446283076758351873
That is very interesting. Multiple projects and agendas at my workplace currently have October 15 as their deadline.
“[The Devil Tarot] card represents: Being seduced by the material world and physical pleasures; lust for and an obsession with money and power. Also: Living in fear, domination and bondage; being caged by an overabundance of luxury; discretion should be used in personal and business matters.” – Wikipedia
Sounds about right for the times we’re living through.
Your views interest me, and I would like to sign up for your newsletter.
I see one commenter says,
One big ass harvest of souls on the horizon.
“Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/catastrophic-property-sales-mean-chinas-worst-case-scenario-now-play
I think that the lack of reasonably priced coal, natural gas and oil mean that the building spree cannot really be kept up. Chinese people who have longed to buy a condominium of their own cannot really get one unless some of the vacant ones are suitable for this purpose. Otherwise, a big slowdown in building is needed, to maintain exports.
All of this will mean any fewer jobs in the construction industry. This will be a big problem as well, because these many laid-off workers will need jobs. The “old” answer was more service industry jobs, but what people really want is more goods (food, homes, vehicles of some sort, roads). More hair cuts won’t really increase what the economy is producing.
This is a 3200-word comment that I have write. Please take your time to read and comment.
I think I may have stumbled upon the grand unified theory of what is happening in this crazy world. It is all based on logic and common sense. I will list down some of the root causes and in the last section, my take of how and why this happen.
#1 – Fear of death
This the key and perhaps the sole overriding factor for the behaviour of the so called “CovIdiots”. It is only human that people fear the unknown and death is one of them. That is why there exist fountains of youth and elixir of eternity and these has eluded man for as long as man existed. I can bet you that those who are aware of our predicament here in OFW are not afraid of death. In fact, some would drive into a rock face. The fear of death includes death of grandchildren, children, parents or siblings. The richer you are, the more fearful you are. That explains why those who are rich or highly educated are vaccinated quickly and willingly (sometimes jumping the queue). The poor like those in Africa, they know that death is always at the doorstep (due to bad or nonexistence medical services). Those who are successful in life, perhaps through sheer hard work (i.e. coming from a poor family) and finally achieved the lifestyle they want are not willing to lose them. To them, vaccines are like elixir of life. That is reason why here in Asia, the excuse of taking the vaccine is “taking it better than not doing anything at all”. The irony of logic.
This applies to peak resources or anything else related to death. Let us take an example of a corporate meeting in the oil or energy company that potentially happened decades ago. A technical guy presented that oil reserves were dwindling, and it will not be long before everything is gone or too expensive to extract. It is likely that “shoot the messenger” will happen. The top management have everything to lose (riches, lifestyle), nothing to gain and cannot accept that reality. To them, it is death and the way of their entitled life is gone. They will latch on to some other narrative, trying to dislodge their “something is not right” feeling and then someone proposes windmills, solar and other renewable stuff…… Bingo, we are saved. No need to talk about resource depletion because technology will save us. From that moment onward, the direction top down that “technology will save us” will impact those who are at the bottom of the hierarchy and these people will go out and be leaders of other companies, thus, bringing along the mistake that was perpetuated in that board room, in the perhaps 1-hour meeting.
This is THE KEY – it is only at that fraction of a second in one’s life where one is facing a certain death in future that will determine his character and future behaviour. With all the influence coming to him (See the points below) from social media, messaging, peer pressure, he must decide and act. If he says “Yah it is true, COVID-19 is deadly” and from that point onward, his life will be set in stone and no other things can changed him. It is this ever-present and ominous fear of death that will drive him this direction and NO AMOUNT of convincing will sway him. His fear of death is so strong. Conversely, at that point of time, perhaps it is his character (I will talk about it in the next paragraph) that he stopped and say “Hey wait a minute, what is going on? Let me check out more about COVID”. His fear of death is not high and for some people, perhaps it is not even present. He will decide if this true and take the action accordingly. This fear of death is perhaps slightly different from the physical death that people face in rich countries like stunt man. They have a different kind of fear. I am not surprised at all that stunt man will take the vaccine but will jump through hoops of fire to show he is fearless.
Character – it is already in the child when he is born that he is a follower or leader, dominant or submissive. His parents have total influence on how this is developed. With a conducive environment with the help from parents, it can be inculcated in the child that he should question everything or take everything for granted. Is the child going to use this brain to think or not? Is the child going to follow the herd or not? That is what it means by “it runs in the family”. A family of “sheep” will only breed a family of “sheep” unless that child in the family has such strong character or perhaps built-in destiny that he will be independent. A child with weak character will only be influenced. A child with strong and independent character may be weak if he grows up in a weak family and live in a weak environment.
It is a known fact in Asia that those who are educated, especially those who came from poor families there these people studied hard, went to universities and then rise to the top of the organization are risk averse. They are always the sheep because they fear death, they fear the poverty that they lived before and they do not want to lose what they have at hand. There is one survey that says that those with PhD are the most vaccine hesitant. I completely disagree and it is likely to be propaganda or disinformation. I have a wide social circle and it is the PhDs that are the first to be at the queue. They felt that they know best and that government and media do not lie. It is those who have nothing to lose like the poor or the blacks in inner cities (where they can be killed by guns) or those whose life is always hanging by the thread (i.e. those in Africa or third world countries) where infant mortality is still high and nature is full of surprises for them (falls, snakebites, etc) that will not take the vaccine. Life is more dangerous than a bunch of virus. This also shows up in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh where it is always the better educated, higher social order people who took the vaccines. It is the fear of death, fear of losing what they have earned, what they have enjoyed or entitled in their lives that are making them take the vaccines without any questions. That is their ultimate elixir of eternity. They will do no wrong because they are educated and will never ever admit they are wrong because it is like they are programmed to do so. I bet that they don’t even realize they are wrong. Remember that this spans across all cultures, geography, religion and ethnicity.
Do note that once the decision is made in that fraction of a second, there is no turning back. It is like a computer program where once a path is taken; it is taken and there is no “undo”. That explains why no one will ever change their viewpoint even if someone close to them dies from the vaccine. They will try their best to explain it in other ways. Even if you tell them otherwise or even if it is as clear as daylight, they will still believe in it what they want to believe in. Why? It is the fear of death. It is just too over riding that it clouds all other judgement. It also explains why the mother still encourage the second son to take the vaccine even if the first one has adverse effects. ** IF the son has blood clots but did not die and the doctor proposed that there is another new injection that will help to clear the clots (the shot is still EUA and developed in less than 2 months), the mother and the son will take it without any questions asked. It is beyond a shred of doubt in me that they will take it. It is certainly like a computer program to me. It is so predictable.
I asking all of you in OFW – anyone here who is aware that we are facing death soon (100% certainty) is afraid of death? I don’t welcome death in any way, but I have accepted it due to my research. At that junction of split-second decision on “What should I believe in” where I am afraid of death or not, I have taken the path of pain rather than the path of least resistance. The path of least resistance is to accept that I am afraid dying and there will be things or technology that will save me and I will ignore all the drumbeats of doom (peak everything , supply chain collapse, etc)
I talked to many people that are not taking the vaccines and all of them agree that if this COVID thing happened in 1950s, none of all the BS would have happened because that generation will not allow it to happen. Part of the reason is that during that time, death is still common and infant mortality is high. Affluence is low and people still work hard to achieve their dreams. No paper pushers and the number of people will say “I am not afraid to die” is very high. Contrast that to the present day. Think about it – would you send your beloved only child to war? Think about what your grandparents would say if your dad decide to go to fight the Germans in WW2?
The doctors that bought into this narrative. Same story. At that point of time, the split-second decision when they have to decide what path to take, it will make or break them. If they are still unsure and questioning, the letter from the medical association will seal the fate on what path to take. They treasure the lifestyle and are afraid of death. They may know that the vaccine is not working or have adverse effects but then the over-riding fear of losing out their luxury trappings and death wins. They themselves will take the shot and believe in it because this is their fountain of youth. Once that decision takes place and if there are some serious problems, they will find excuses and reasons to defend the vaccine, no matter how stupid that is. Again, this is like computer programming or AI went rogue/haywire.
#2 –Instantaneous Communication
Our brain is not wired for instantaneous worldwide communication where we have tons of information coming to us almost 24 hours a day. Our body is not designed to sleep late and lead a sedentary lifestyle. Thousands of years or evolution only to be upended by the last 200 years due to electric lighting that is cheap (thank you fossil fuel, you are part of the reason humans go extinct biologically). Our brain is massively overloaded over the last 10 years due to instant messaging, internet, non-stop TVs and other distractions. I can still clearly remember in Malaysia, in the late 1970s to early 1980s, TV started from 5pm and ended at midnight.
In early 2020 when the virus starts to spread in Wuhan, I attended several social functions. I was the only one who was questioning why only a few videos of people dropping dead in the streets and why are the video so low quality when there are hundreds of millions of high-resolution smart phone cameras. Why it was only these videos that were circulating? Why were they using PCR to test when it is not even designed for that purpose? (I knew what PCR was years ago). They rest of the people, who are afraid of death were already very scared of the virus. The hysteria has started. Practically those who surrounded me has made that split second decision that they are afraid of death.
If we don’t have instant messaging or social media, would all of that happen? Not everyone has an email account but perhaps now everyone has WhatsApp, Telegram or Messenger and these videos get sent and resent via different groups so many times that it has become ingrained that this virus is deadly.
#3 – Woke culture
Woke culture is not only confined to the west. It is the result of a complacent society. It only happens in a society where there are copious amount of excess energy and people don’t have to work hard and still get the luxury trappings of life. It does not matter if the affluence comes from debt or welfare. Everyone is equal, everyone must be saved. No matter if that person is handicapped, very old or those who are not fit to survive or procreate (some gender marriage does not allow procreation, we are not bacteria). All these are against natural selection. A family with negative behaviour (laziness, stupidity, etc) only breeds the same type of family values. It is suicidal in the eyes of nature.
Pray tell me which woke person is not afraid of death? I will tell you from my couch here typing out this article – none. They felt entitled in all ways and they have a right to live and MAY destroy other people just to have that right to live. This is their version of “natural selection”. They may decide not to work because they fear the virus. In the west, you have government welfare. In the east, you have none. That is why a subset of the woke culture is here – “equal rights for all and everyone is entitled to live” means that everyone must be saved from this nasty and deadly COVID 19. It does not matter if that person is 90 years old or if that person weighs 300 pounds. Everyone must take the vaccine. If you don’t take it, you are not protecting others.
I have thought hard about it and there is no way at all that the world will ever go back to 2019. It is like entropy. No “undo’ function. It will only get worse. The time to the end only gets shorter and shorter with each successive “fear of death” actions.
Here is my take:
CEP is fine but to me, humans are dumb and disorganized. In Chinese, there is a saying that riches do not go past 3 generations. Before the invention of “trust funds”, it is 100% true. When a child is born with a silver spoon in the mouth, all senses and the brain degrade. They cannot think anymore because everything that want, they have it. There is no need to realize what the reality is outside of his riches. They know that everything can be bought, be it university degrees or anything else for that matter. Now, these people grow up and have kids, the kids will be worse off than the parents in every single aspect. There will be plenty of family issues, disagreement between siblings and as the family tree grows more horizontally, things will fray. I have heard people talking about having many children so that each one can have a share of granddad’s fortune. I have met up with very rich people. I just cannot talk to them. They are so detached from reality and become so stupid and best of all they are all surrounded by the same type of people (They only socialize in their own social strata). They marry in their own social strata and their kids are all the same. They cannot think straight other than what Ferrari to buy. Many of them even marry their own first cousin so that they keep the fortune in their own family. It only makes things worse – genetic defects propagate. (Rothchilds and European royal family)
Even those in power, they are drunk in power, but they have competition that will certainly have them killed. So, it is not easy at all to maintain power. People are just too dumb when they are insulated from the real world. They believe their own make-believe world, be it the rich ones or the super-rich ones. They don’t have positive characters and have no opportunity to experience life events that built characters. They live in a charade, a Matrix-like world surrounded by “yes-man”
So, to me, no, there are no elders around but there are people trying to be elders like the Bilderbergers. They try to control, and think may have control over countries but not wide swath of the world. They “think” what they do is right, but it is usually wrong.
In January 2020, the virus in Wuhan was perhaps real and quite deadly. Remember that biologically, all pathogens, over time will be less deadly but more infectious. I see no reason why SARS-COV-2 will be different. At this point, it does not matter if it is lab-created or not. The people who died may be real. Perhaps a lot of them die but over time (weeks perhaps?), it gets less deadly. The Chinese government perhaps panicked, especially if it came from the lab and denied investigations of the origins. If US was funding that, perhaps they panicked too. The Chinese managed to stop the videos from coming out through their control of social media. However, someone in the government may realize that this was a good way to control people and perhaps the world too but controlling the narratives.
Other countries in the world, perhaps initially were really scared with someone suggesting that it came from the lab. When “fear of death” kicked in, no logic will be entertained, and this fear will only grow. Some opportunistic parties will take advantage to exert more social control while pharmaceutical companies may decide to cash on it, prodded by government officials who were seriously “scared of death”. They look to “saviours” like Bill Gates and pharmaceutical companies. When these big pharmas were involved, this is where they force these “scared shit of death” officials to accept EUA, silenced all dissenters and bought the medical associations and bury all alternative treatments. Once this started, like what I have mentioned in the section “afraid to die”, there is no return. They don’t want to lose everything especially if they were found to be criminally negligent. They doubled down. Big pharma goes for profit while politicians found that they get to control the population easily. It is a combination of various factors, that seems to coincide very well with CEP.
From now on, it is only double or nothing to the next step quadruple or nothing until something breaks. They don’t care about the interconnected of the economy. They just want to save their skin. Frankly those who are “afraid of death”, the fact that they are afraid of death means that they cannot see that a break in supply chain will be the cause of collapse. I have seen so many times in my life when the price of petrol goes up – what do these people say “I will take a bicycle to work”. It goes way beyond petrol, but they can only see what is in front of them.
Do comments on what I have written.
Blockcha*n based identification is being initiated in Bangladesh via jabs. This is perhaps a work around resource depletion.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/CV1RkcXU69pP/
Ration jobs to only those who have been vaccinated. This helps limit demand. This follows the 2020 approach of rationing oil products, as well as other fossil fuel products, through temporary shutdowns in response to COVID-19.
If the purpose of the “vaccines” is to effectively reduce demand and thereby ration energy consumption (e.g. no jab no job; no job no income; no income no housing; no housing no family formation, etc.), could this be done with a harmless placebo?
If so, then what would be the result if close to 100% of a nation’s population opted for the injections? You’d have close to 0% in the “unvaccinated,” excluded group, and thus wouldn’t really be reducing demand and rationing energy – nearly everyone would still be feeding at the trough.
For this reason, if the purpose of the “vaccines” is to effectively reduce demand and thereby ration energy consumption, then I don’t see how they could be harmless. They would serve the demand reduction and energy rationing agendas better by reducing recipients’ lifespans, causing disabilities, and/or infertility.
I suppose if “they” had successfully worked out roughly how many people in a given population were likely to refuse the injections, then “they” could’ve determined whether a harmful injection was needed at this point in time. For example, if a population was projected to have a very high number of refuseniks then a placebo may suffice to reduce demand and ration energy consumption enough for the time being as so many people would opt out.
Great minds tend to think alike, possible regionally target bias of said jab campaign is a big topic to explore. For one thing, TPTB need already convenient bolt holes for various abort mission / bail out scenarios, therefore I’d assume places like France, Germany and few others were not targeted the hardest on purpose, at least this time around..
The recent story of Ivermectin’s success in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, and how the WHO and CDC supported the Rapid Response Teams that delivered the medicinal home kits, indicates there are different COVID-9 strategies planned for different countries/regions.
Meanwhile, here in the US, it’s all about the injections. Ivermectin’s for horses (and now Indian’s, apparently).
Perhaps it’s just simply larger sway of India and China (+their club) in such int bodies like WHO these days.. (running own show if needed be).
In one econ podcast I noticed interesting speculation, that China closed or reduced throughput at some of the cargo loading facilities as retaliation for the Wuhan lab thing, meaning the local personnel being somehow subverted by the US collaborators aka sabotage theory.
Shops are not “getting bare” in continental Europe, but US/Oceania.. after-all.. Elementary, Watson..
That’s a fantastic video.. thanks i1!
I second that, a must watch. I have done a little of this mapping before but not on Alison’s scale. It certainly puts the whole ‘flu’ and ‘jabbing’ business into perspective. Interesting what she had to say about the NHS towards the end. Xavier this is up your street. Gail I would be really interested in what you think of this. Is energy really as scarce/expensive to access as we are led to believe or is it being ‘saved’ for this hideous project?
Whitney Webb at ‘Unlimited Hangout’ is also excellent at making the links which define the ‘shadow goverment’ , whether personal, corporate or institutional. And let’s not forget the spooks and military…….
Wow. Fascinating video, i1.
The whole gamification of life concept smells like something a nerdy young guy on the autism spectrum would come up with for society. Alison McDowell alludes to this, at one point saying that some of the people with wealth and power are happen to be on the spectrum and are attempting to reorganize society into a organizational construct that they can recognize and understand.
Also, that was the best explanation for Pokémon GO I’ve ever heard. Gamification, incentivization, and the power to mobilize crowds at the game creators’ will. It was always weird to see mobs of people walking around the local park with their heads bent down, absorbed in their phones.
“Adversity makes men, prosperity makes monsters” – Victor Hugo
“Destiny has put us into this era of decay, we can face our fate with courage, or be cowardly optimists” – Oswald Spengler”
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
Thank you for your post, CTG, and much of it has bearing on your situation in regard to the elites, power, control and psychology behind the matrix. As Gail has pointed out, the elites think they are in control, but natural laws are in fact at play. No doubt, we among the average, see the tools and pressures being applied to keep the structure from falling.
The elites need buffers, so to speak, and the Homeland Guard and surveillance apparatus, and government lackies are doing their assigned tasks.
My own feeling, those, like FE, will be marginalized and weeded out as Gail has pointed out.
You may be right, the elites themselves struggle to maintain their illusion of privledge position. Much like AHittler in his Berlin Bunker at the end with the crowd of lackeys and yes men to assure them. The data and maps and such will assure them of such.
I see this here and now at the Airport… BT W the airlines are having a massive hiring campaign at this time and drumming up flight schedules to pre pandemic levels..
Should be interesting to see what unfolds.
The mandates are enforced and have till Dec 8 to obey…most are complying without question
Who is ordering the global MSM and social media apparatus to ignore, censor and/or ridicule all Covid dissent?
Yes people fear death. But this virus is only 0.3% deadly and less with treatment. I am surprises how much people can be manipulated.
In Asia, the fear is palpable. no questions
People are easily manipulated… that is why democracy would be dangerous….
Uh, where in Asia? We’re fine here…
Thanks! I finally got a chance to read your long comment.
Regarding “fear of death,” I think that the movement away from religion, especially by the rich and well educated, has contributed to the fear of death. The government has become the new savior. The fact that the vaccine is endorsed by the government especially makes it welcome.
Some of us have lived long enough that we have experienced the long decline of elderly relatives in care homes. Back in the “good old days,” the medical profession didn’t try to save a person from everything that went wrong. Perhaps there was some wisdom in this, especially now that being in a care home seems to mean “being locked up in your own room, 24/7, for fear of catching a virus.”
I think that you are right about businesses fearing the death of their business, if there is an energy problem. This does contribute to the ridiculous narratives that we hear. Academic institutions fear a loss of student, if they cannot peddle a story that says, “The economy will always be here for you. Study hard. There will always be many jobs that pay well for you after you graduate.
I am not sure if it is instantaneous messaging that is the problem, or that fact that most “news” sources seem to repeat the same stories endlessly, with the same wording. They print the stories that advertisers want told. This is not necessarily the truth.
Some excellent thoughts…
Re Death — when I read Perfect Storm late one night in that hotel room in Edinburgh 10+ years ago … and I realized that the GFC was not caused by corruption or incompetence but was a result of peak cheap oil….. I still recall the surreal feeling … and inability to sleep afterwards…
It was no different than appearing in from of a court as an innocent man – and being sentenced to the electric chair. Fear… panic… thoughts of how to avoid that fate (prepping…)
It is not a pleasant experience to realize that soon we will all be dead… and I fully understand why the MOREONS will under no circumstances consider that these injections are meant to put us down.
Actually – the more evidence one shows them — the louder their will scream NO!!! — Biden’s dementia could cause him to blurt out the entire plan .. and STILL the MOREONS would shout NO!!!!… They will add more layers of defence mechanisms to protect themselves from reality.
It is almost impossible to turn a CovIDIOT… some may recognize that the vaccines do not work … but they will grasp at the Boosters… they will never… not in a million years … suspect there is something sinister at work here….
The fact that every country on the planet is injecting…. reassures them that our leaders have good intentions… (they actually do … but the CovIDIOTS would not see it that way if they knew)
Very much agree with your excellent post, CTG. Another thing about “fear of death” is that most people in first world countries seldom have a reason to contemplate this. Suddenly they have covid all over their news outlets and are both scared and caught in to the narrative at the same time.
OFWers have contemplated for many years, about death, the meaning of life, the psychology of man, how society will react to crisis and collapse. We are accustomed to reading between the headlines, searching behind the official narratives, speculating on the why, when and where. I see a lot of people on here being open to changing their minds and entertaining different ideas and outcomes. Not very common elsewhere.
Thank you, CTG. I think you described well some of the critical factors involved. And I agree that the fear of death is one of the essential ones — the hysteria could not have happened without the belief in a fatal disease.
The timing and coordinated fast roll-out of various measures doesn’t point to coincidence much. Simply, if small consultancy outfits were able to figure out we are in this particular inning of late 2010s moving into a situation the West could no longer push out OPEC+ from finally taking over the whole pricing nexus for global energy flows (and also the former hegemon ran of list of countries to be easily toppled down), they had to slam the brakes hard, by whatever means, yes dirty tricks again.. even at price of mortally wounding themselves .. well meaning the broader society, while planning own little private techno fiefdoms of the future be derived of sub mini reactors, renewables etc.
That’s my 90% probability scenario at this point, the other 9% scenario includes some wider (basic understanding) Western and Asian cooperation in overall de-growth plan, although kicking ankles evidently continues, politics is a sport after-all..
https://twitter.com/Gizmodo/status/1433010762042073092
Thanks to you all for taking the time to read and comment. I am sure you all know that it is just impossible to have any meaning conversation with anyone anymore other than those who are on OFW. Common sense and logic seems to be an aberration of nature now.
Outside of OFW I communicate with the MOREONS by barking … if I come across an attractive MOREON I will hump her leg.
Fast Eddy, you would have fit right in with the Mud People Anarchist Collective in Detroit back in the 70’s. They’d get all half-naked and mudded-up and howl and yip at the movers and shakers going up the steps into the Detroit Economic Club for lunch. “Anarchists” in Detroit these days are outbidding developers for land and houses.
why does that not surprise me
Feeling nervous norm? Still time to back out….
http://www.lbvd.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/dynamite601.gif
As The Hill details, some people were caught falsifying vaccine cards even for their children – despite the underage children being ineligible to receive the vaccine in the first place – but now face stiff legal penalties, including the possibility of jail time:
According to Hawaii News Now, fake cards hold a penalty of up to $5,000 or a prison term of up to a year, however, Newsweek reports that a 24-year old man from New York could face seven years in prison for allegedly submitting a fake card.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/one-us-state-already-has-de-facto-vaccine-passport-requirement-just-enter
Think of the 7-year prison sentence as free room and board for 7 years. If life outside prison isn’t very good, it may not be much of a deterrent.
Fact check: No, natural immunity doesn’t replace vaccination, experts say
Natural immunity will not protect you against COVID-19 as well as an mRNA vaccine, according to both experts and the research.
Multiple anti-vaccine groups touted natural immunity as a viable alternative to getting vaccinated, but experts say the natural immunity is unreliable — especially when there’s a safe and effective vaccine out there.
Even if you’ve already had COVID, you should still get vaccinated, doctors say.
“The idea of natural immunity, people are kind of taking that and running with it, thinking, ‘I don’t need to get vaccinated.’ That’s not true, either,” said Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti.
“Natural immunity does certainly protect you, but we don’t know to what extent.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/8229808/covid-vaccine-natural-immunity-fact-check/
https://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/oh-really-gif-7.gif
Another doctor who is a disgrace to his profession. Might as well say:
‘Stop thinking, get injected!’
Natural immunity has no side-effects whatsoever.
Quite a substantial benefit to weigh in the scales, is it not!
FEAR FEAR FEAR
https://globalnews.ca/video/8171037/double-heart-transplant-recipient-urges-anti-vaxxers-to-think-about-others
Reading that, Norman will no doubt try to advance his booking for the Booster…..
True. He can think so limitedly, and only about himself. So he’s addicted to folly.
As Cromwell said to Normal all those years ago, “You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!”
I agree.
If only those who have had two shots were to say: ‘No!, No more!’ to the ‘boosters’…
If only all the elderly would demand an end to the injecting of students and children, saying: ‘We don’t want or deserve to be ‘protected’ by endangering them!’
The machine of lies and murder would grind to a halt.
If only…..
My uncle’s lady is in her mid-eighties. She was quick to get in early on the injection offering in her area. The other day, she was having a conversation with a similarly aged friend who was looking forward to getting a booster shot. My uncle’s lady said she wasn’t getting any damned booster. She’d thought things would go back to normal after the first go-round of injections. She feels betrayed.
If only…. most people were not MOREONS?
🙂
http://insiderfinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/time-for-a-boost.jpg
Canada’s top doctors say you should ask your family members if they’ve been vaccinated against COVID-19 before you invite them over for Thanksgiving dinner.
Depending on their answer, they added, you might want to change your plans, move dinner outside, or add extra precautions to your event.
“Our advice really is that, overall, keep indoor gatherings safer by asking your guests … your family… whether they’ve been vaccinated or not,” said Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam.
“It is a difficult question sometimes.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/8253512/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-thanksgiving-family/
If people tell me they have ben vaccinated recently, I step back from them and explain why – shedding, super-spreaders, etc.
Most diverting to see the expression on their face…..
I’ve already been dis-invited to our usual Thanksgiving gathering at my sister’s house. She’s not on board with the vaxes, but her adult college-age children vaxxed up the very first minute they could and are completely mired in the fear agenda. She doesn’t want to “make them feel uncomfortable.”
Oh well, that much gasoline will go unburned by me.
We’ll celebrate with some of the more local flotsam and jetsam molecules circling the IC drain.
Isn’t Tam the one who’d been pictured with Bell’s palsy symptoms? She has some nerve, that one…
“keep indoor gatherings safer by asking your guests … your family… whether they’ve been vaccinated or not”
Strange world we live in!
you are quite correct eddy
but not quite in the sense that you mean
All you need to know about vaccine failure – not in Israel, in the US – in one incredible chart
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/all-you-need-to-know-about-vaccine/comments
I ask again … what is the purpose of the passports and mandates?
Conspiracy theories otherwise known as distrust become a lot more plausible when you live in a heterogeneous society with different groups jockeying for dominance.
“Food Inflation Heats Up and Energy Crisis May Make It Worse.
“The jump in global food prices to a decade high risks leading to even more expensive grocery bills, and the energy crisis is threatening to make things even worse.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-07/food-inflation-heats-up-as-global-prices-return-to-decade-high
“Tiny North American Oat Crop Could Be Coming for Your Breakfast.
“The smallest harvest ever in the U.S. is expected to shrink supplies needed for everything from Cheerios to oat milk.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/an-oat-killing-drought-is-signaling-oat-milk-oatmeal-inflation
We eat oatmeal for breakfast. This is not good for us.
“Fertilizer Index Hits Record, Threatening Higher Food Prices.
“The Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index rose 7.9% to $996.32 per short ton, soaring past its 2008 peak to set a new benchmark for the index that began in January 2002.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-index-hits-record-threatening-161053467.html
It’s just like 2007 all over again except there’s not shale to ride to the rescue… this is it baby… no more BAU soon…
https://youtu.be/F-t8PngHgWY
I am afraid you are right: “It’s just like 2007 all over again except there’s not shale to ride to the rescue”
Also, the crisis is focused in different countries, and the problem is more electricity than oil.
“2008 called. It wants its recession back… For much of this year, I have argued that the best analogy for markets is the great 2015 deflation…
“…[However] a closer analogy for markets now appears to 2008. Do I mean a new GFC? No. I mean an energy and inflation bubble and bust so large that it does material damage to global growth.”
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2021/10/2008-called-it-wants-its-recession-back/
The unforgivable sin
One wonders how it is possible that while it has now been reported that vaccinated shed and transmit as much virus as unvaccinated people (1), the vaccinated are still protected against severe disease whereas the unvaccinated are said to be unprotected. So, how can one explain that viral shedding and transmission and hence, viral replication no longer seem to be impacted by the vaccine whereas the opposite still applies to the occurrence of (severe) disease?
Based on their study results, the authors from the above-mentioned report (1) conclude that there is no significant difference in viral load between groups of vaccinated and unvaccinated, asymptomatic and symptomatic people who became infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.
So, again: Considering that vaccinees shed and transmit as much virus as unvaccinated people, how could one even postulate that unvaccinated people are susceptible to severe disease whereas vaccinees are still largely protected from severe disease?
https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/the-unforgivable-sin
Of course this is why Vermont is showing no protection from the vaccine whatsoever hahaha
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=176
The stoooopid dunces still won’t understand this …
Can you really not understand this? The clue is in the phrase, “who became infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant”. The chances of becoming infected (enough to test positive) are reduced for vaccinated people, as are the chances of a severe illness from the disease.
yes yes mike that’s why 76% of the covid deaths in vermont involved double injected… and 70.1% of the population is double injected…
too much for your Pea to understand?
The problem is that the vaccinated likely will not be aware of the risk that they could be unwittingly spreading COVID-19 to all they meet because they have such mild symptoms. They go about their business and spread the illness. We don’t know the exact extent of the spread that they provide, but it could be substantial. It certainly is not tiny. For example, we know that Harvard Businesses School had to move online with COVID cases, even though the school was 95% vaccinated.
https://fortune.com/education/business/articles/2021/09/27/harvard-business-school-moves-online-after-surge-in-breakthrough-covid-19-cases/
76% of September Covid-19 deaths are vax breakthroughs
https://vermontdailychronicle.com/2021/09/30/76-of-september-covid-19-deaths-are-vaxxed-breakthroughs/
They do not ID individual patients as being “infected” with any particular variant. They make assumptions based on computer models which, as we’ve seen with the Imperial College, are not worth spit.
And here we have some bad news for the Injected CovIDIOTS:
Remember this?
76% of September Covid-19 deaths are vax breakthroughs
https://vermontdailychronicle.com/2021/09/30/76-of-september-covid-19-deaths-are-vaxxed-breakthroughs/
Now pay attention MOREONS….
Vermont – % of population fully vaccinated: 70.1%
Guess what – the vaccine provides ZERO protection against Covid death.
Z – E – R – O.
0
None. Nothing. Useless. Garbage.
Have a nice day CovIDIOTS!!! And stay safe
https://i1.wp.com/mojly.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/weird-laughing-people-funny-pics-images-mojly-photos-maxresdefault-007.jpg
The total number of COVID deaths is down, however. I think that is what others are looking at.
because the virus is going through the natural development of becoming less fatal to be more wide spread
are leaky vaccines driving delta variant evolution and making it more deadly?
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/are-leaky-vaccines-driving-delta
Given the endless lies… that could be because they are now actually only counting deaths of those from covid and not with…. that would dramatically reduce the deaths.
On The View, where they’re doing overtime trying to get everybody jabbed, Joy Behar (with her wobbly dentures) is demanding that Black People Trust The COVID Vaccines Because ‘The Experiment Has Been Done On White People.”
Meanwhile, Whoopie is also pulling out all the shots to get blacks jabbed, acknowledging that black women have been sterilized against their will in the past and that black men have been left untreated for syphilis, and understanding that this history stokes black skepticism towards government health drives, but insisting that this time it’s different.
Watch this for five minutes and have a good laugh.
https://tv.gab.com/channel/redvoicemedia/view/joy-behar-demands-black-people-trust-616063fc2f89577fe9cee437
That is amusing: this time, white people have indeed been the lab rats!
Who says there’s no such thing as Progress?
part 1 http://www.clubderoma.net/archivos/CoR/CoR-ClimateEmergencyPlan-Diciembre2018.pdf
here is the elders plan B to avert ELE {extinction level event} it sounds alot like communism for the entire world the covid fiasco in my opinion where people are being forced or coerced to vaccinate sounds like sovereign governments trying to bring back BAU without lockdowns so the bad guys are actually the governments of the world who cannot accept that we live in a finite world and desire pre covid life back. The link to this presentation is part 2 so i highly recommend you to read part 1 which explains their plans and history of why the worlds sovereign governments cannot be relied on to the right thing they were given the chance in the 1970s to change course and they failed to do so just like theyre failing now so the elders will now collapse the financial system i believe we have less than a month to go before the shite hits the fan. https://clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/COR-PEP_Sep2020_A4_16pp-v2.pdf
so November should be top level excitement?
most months are full of dreary dull continuations of the past.
perhaps a little discontinuity will spice things up?
I have stored my fans away for the season, so they will remain untainted.
the global-financial-system-fan is a big target.
It is oh-so-convenient to make grand plans and slick presentations. But when it comes down to chucking in the oats and turning the cranks:
All self entitled princesses of IC.
All crickets… 🦗🦗🦗
Coz status, prestige, laziness plus the envy traits of the rapacious primate.
https://youtu.be/meiU6TxysCg
To our overlords:
Just send it down the Seneca full tilt, smooth bore, loose cannon, totally out of control. I’m expecting to observe the grande finale for the N’th time in the Lotka-Volterra boom and bust cycles of the Rapacious Primate™. I want to observe the schadenfreude as the 7 stages of grief emerges.
https://youtu.be/VWHfiEKK3zw
It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.
Just send it.
🌍💥☄️☄️☄️
(It’s the only way to be sure)
🤣👍👍
Re: Club of Rome pdf
There’s nothing wrong with proposing plan.
Would you prefer to continue to pollute the ground and oceans?
Prefer to to blindly waste all the high density hydrocarbons we have been blessed with on vacation flights and 30 mile trips to kids soccer games?
Somebody (or group) has to take charge because individuals will not.
While you may not agree with the methods in the plan, we and others are more than welcome to formulate a better plan and organize around it. But I doubt that will happen.
Just as elsewhere in nature, there will emerge a boss or a leader or a dictator or a lead group (alpha Wolf).
The authors of that paper are competing with other people of action to have the “Alpha Plan”. Something will emerge, and it will be different.
Why do you say that the Club of Rome are the Elders?
The Club of Rome, after it sponsored the 1972 Limits to Growth study, has become very “green.” The wealthy folks associated with this organization could not take agree to an answer of “Collapse is Ahead.” Instead, they had to push for some other answer.
The most recent statement by the Club of Rome is given in the book “2052” by Jorgen Randers. The book uses incredibly optimistic assumptions regard green energy and regarding the very small quantity of energy required to operate the economy. The book is basically written based on a survey of wishful thinking of close contacts of Jorgen Randers. Jorgen Randers is listed as an author of the 1972 book, but I have been told that his role in writing the original book was very limited. He was simply a graduate student who helped with one appendix. He has not been involved with limits or the modeling of limits to any significant extent since then. The book 2052 does not represent the output of an energy model, in any real sense.
I managed to get myself in the middle of this. One of the co-presidents of the Club of Rome invited me to Sweden to talk about the book 2052 and my views as to its reasonableness. I was there for several days, ostensibly to give a talk at a little climate change related conference, but also to talk to the co-president privately about the issue. I had written two negative stories about the assumptions of the book 2052 on Our Finite World. I had quite a number of different contacts in this, including the woman who was the lead modeler of the current version of the World3 model, before Jorgen Randers decided not to use its output in his book.
I hadn’t thought about members of the Club of Rome as being Elders, but I suppose they are. They are a different group of elders than those of the World Economic Forum.
Very interesting, Gail, thank you.
Many people, unaware of, or unwilling to accept limits, are conflating the Club of Rome and the WEF these days, which is rather paranoid and nonsensical.
Let’s make a list of ways that we ‘waste’ energy!
– ski lifts
– restaurants
– driving cars
– water skiing
– ice skating
– sky diving
– air courier
– shipping useless stuff from china
– buying stuff we dont need to survive
The list is endless!
I briefly looked at this. I didn’t find the November date in it.
I see that Anders Wijkman is listed as one of the co-authors of the report. He is the person who invited me to Sweden to talk about the book 2052 and its assumptions. He was one of the co-presidents at the time I went to Sweden in 2013.
The World Health Organization launched its Global Medicines Safety Database, called “VigiAccess,” on April 17, 2015.
http://www.vigiaccess.org/
Give it a try:
A search for “COVID-19 Vaccine” displays Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs) for 2,201,851 records retrieved. A sample:
Geographical Distribution
Africa – 60,0014 – 3%
Americas – 829,598 – 38%
Asia – 136,272 – 6%
Europe – 1,108,803 – 50%
Oceania – 67,164 – 3%
Age Group Distribution
0 – 27 days – 301 – 0%
28 days to 23 months – 1,327 – 0%
2 – 11 years – 1,580 – 0%
12 – 17 years – 31,540 – 1%
18 – 44 years – 866,558 – 39%
45 – 64 years – 691,374 – 31%
65 – 74 years – 211,170 – 10%
≥ 75 years – 255,866 – 12%
ADR reports per year
2021 – 2,199,476 – 100%
2020 – 2,259 – 0%
2019 – 83 – 0%
2017 – 2 – 0%
2016 – 1 – 0%
2014 – 1 – 0%
Besides what is shown above, you can get a listing (with number of reports) of the number of adverse reports by cause for all COVID-19 vaccines. They are all grouped together, in one category, which you need to enter to get anything out:
covid-19 vaccine
You cannot get information by manufacturer of the vaccine, just in total. For example, there have been 108,468 cardiac disorders reported. Within that group, there are many categories listed. For example, Palpitations (36661), Tachycardia (25518), Myocarditis (8368), Pericarditis (6112).
It becomes clear that there were not predetermined categories, because some categories sound very similar: Myocardial infarction (4035), Cardiac arrest (2719), Acute myocardial infarction (2102), Cardiac failure (2072) and probably quite a few other similar categories.
Why do you use the word “cause”? As the site clearly says, on the first page:
So it doesn’t give a listing by cause, only by association.
When Mike dies, he’ll probably make the point that although there are some circumstancial indications, he wants solid proof that he is in fact deceased and dead as a parrot before recognising that he is deceased and dead as a parrot…….
Next up: Mike disputes the ‘perpetual’ in ‘perpetual damnation’ with Satan…….
You may accept everything that fits with your world view and ignore all else. I don’t.
yes yes mike … off to CNN with your … off to BBC…. trustworthy source of information in DelusiSTAN
In a way, Mike, I’m fond of you.
I feel you need a well-informed, cynical, guardian and protector in this dishonest and dangerous world, and so I persist in trying to enlighten you.
As just an experiment, how about ignoring all official propaganda for a few weeks, and reading only Drs Yeadon and Malone, the Council for World Health, etc, just to sample life outside the bubble?
Take a look at the Declaration from the recent Rome Covid Conference, and so on.
It might save your life…..
got to stop this Yeadon stuff
This is one thread from Reuters, there’s much much more. Yeadon is spreading nonsense.:
Quote….
>>>>>>Yeadon said a decision to immunise pregnant women “when we have not done reproductive toxicology” is further proof of pandemic falsities.
Yeadon has previously speculated, without evidence, that vaccines cause infertility in women, having launched a petition to Europe’s medicines regulator last year. This was spread widely on social media at the time (here).
Like nearly all clinical trials, COVID-19 vaccine studies initially excluded pregnant women, meaning there was limited evidence as to how they would be affected (here).
In December, Public Health England initially advised against pregnant individuals getting a COVID-19 vaccine while waiting for more data (bit.ly/3wocPrk). New advice was issued in April 2021 after real-world data from the U.S. showed 90,000 pregnant women had been safely vaccinated (here).<<<<<<
___________
Do you seriously think, or expect others to conform to your thinking, that pregnant women would be allowed to be vaccinated if there was the slightest risk.?
Do you seriously think that the covid vaccine is being promoted to induce infertility in women?
And I speak personally, as someone who (one of my kids) came within a whisker of being hit by thalidomide 50 odd years ago. No doubt Mr Shortfuse will find that amusing. For the people who did get deformed by Thalidomide, it isn't funny. Ask one of them.
Since then pregnancy risks have been at the forefront of every thread of research on stuff like this.
I'm just taking one line of Yeadons ramblings. Why does this irresponsible thread persist, when its just a form of attention seeking by Yeadon?
If one could put mike on a leash .. it would be like having a dog … that could talk…
One could make some serious money out of this
https://soundcloud.com/alexi_music/cool-and-easy-roots-reggae-new-release?ref=facebook&p=a&c=1&utm_campaign=social_sharing&utm_medium=post&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1px1HS1yZEMpPrLnEgzlVG7pe5FUVNpQ410Rpwf1JZZEds3dq6tYdPKZY
A Little Diversion (but that sets the right tone)
By Alexi Russel
https://soundcloud.com/alexi_music/cool-and-easy-roots-reggae-new-release?ref=facebook&p=a&c=1&utm_campaign=social_sharing&utm_medium=post&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1px1HS1yZEMpPrLnEgzlVG7pe5FUVNpQ410Rpwf1JZZEds3dq6tYdPKZY
Muppet = CovIDIOT who wears a mask when it is not required – particularly when they are outdoors.
In a sentence:
Earlier, we went for lunch in Arrowtown and from our window table were able to observe that over half the people walking down the street were Muppets. Actually Extra Strength Muppets because the south island is Covid free. I said repeatedly to Madame Fast “Look there’s another Muppet. And check that out – a family of Muppets”
I also noticed a grossly obese Muppet that had two bulges almost the size of her gigantic ass on the front of her body and said “Madame Fast – check it out – a Muppet with a Front-Ass”
Gail, I think you will have a hard time writing the next article. Things seem to be at a turning point not clear what is going on now.
When do we get the ‘CEP’ article…
Plenty of juicy stuff to write / research about. For example, how the “mid tier” management, here meaning industrial sector ~top executives which are now manically discussing the plethora of practical problems to overcome in order to get back to smooth factory output (IT, carz, food), meeting pent up demand by ~2023 horizon. And that confronted against the mounting evidence the guys higher up, say Chinese top honchos or western bankers seem not so keen to return to previous levels of production and consumption..
Basically, the system now being tuned into fulfilling de-growth agenda will be hobbling lower and lower executive layers, which will ultimately sniff the plot to some degree, hence both the volume and quality of production (of the whole IC) is going to suffer increasingly and exponentially into the future.
Taibbi: The Cult Of The Vaccine
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=184
An excerpt from this article:
We now seem to have lots of comparisons that can be made:
To the happenings of the novel 1984
To mass formation (also called mob psychology) – this is a different link to some of Mattias Desmet’s work https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/emerging-totalitarian-dystopia-interview-professor-soriano-nava/
To the way the people of the Soviet Union behaved (presumably before its collapse in 1991)
Collapse of the United States is near. That’s all. Good thing I’ll be abandoning this rock soon.
Several emergency doctors called me during the second wave. Some told me that their ward was absolutely not overrun with corona patients. Others told me that more than half of the patients in the ICU did not have corona or showed such mild symptoms that they would have been sent home to recover, were they diagnosed with influenza.
But given the prevailing panic, this turned out to be impossible. Unfortunately, these doctors wished to remain anonymous, so their message did not reach the media and public opinion. Some of them later also told their story to a journalist from the VRT news network, but unfortunately nothing has come of this to date. And I want to mention that there were other doctors who interpreted the apparent facts in a completely different fashion than portrayed in the conventional narrative.
Well, sickness and suffering are always bad, but the deleterious effects of the government response are disproportionate to the health risk of the virus. Professionally, I am involved in two research projects on corona. As a result, I have been working fairly intensively with the data. Clearly, the virus mortality rate is quite low.
The numbers that the media are announcing are based on, let‘s say, an overly enthusiastic count. Regardless of any pre-existing medical problems, just about every elderly person who died was added to the list of corona deaths. I personally only know one person who was registered as a corona death. He was a terminal cancer patient who died with rather than from corona. Adding these sorts of deaths to corona deaths increases the numbers and increases anxiety in the population.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/emerging-totalitarian-dystopia-interview-professor-soriano-nava/
Here is a preprint of a study looking into excess deaths over the pandemic period:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7852240/
It suggests an undercount of 1.5 (so there are likely at least 7 million deaths due to COVID-19 by now), though other estimates based on the data go up to 16 million. These estimates are still some way short of the 1918 pandemic (now estimated that it would have taken 75 million lives at today’s population levels) but higher than other flu epidemics.
Thanks for the humour MIke, much needed.
Do please keep them coming.
Eventually I’ll get beyond laughter and actually start believing in your world, which is probably a rather happy place.
It must be lovely to be so trusting in official data, and feeling so much safer with those injections inside one.
Xabier, perhaps you didn’t get the origins of the study which arose out of a mistrust of official data.
However, I should point out that many people here who take the kind of line that you do, also try to use official data as though they do trust it, whenever it appears to bolster their position, but rubbish it otherwise.
Here’s mike trying to pretend he’s making a point…
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/emerging-totalitarian-dystopia-interview-professor-soriano-nava/
Thanks for posting that … it aligns with my belief that the MOREONS are so unsatisfied with their situations (e.g. norm dunc) that they seek meaning … and covid/injections provide the simpletons with a purpose.
The professor is clearly unaware of our energy predicament.
This will not end on any sort of positive note — as he expects.
And btw – why does every bad situation have to have a happy ending — life is not a hollywood movie
Exactly, FE.
They all tend to predict ‘a better world’ once we get through this, and have thrown out Klaus and Fauci, the Fat Controller at the BIS, etc.
Few have the mental strength to face the whole truth, whether they know about the energy crisis or not.
At best, they see that the financial system is on its last legs, but don’t understand energy and resources.
Built Back Better… outstanding slogan….
The MOREONS… despondent with the way things are now — enthralled and the same time depressed watching everyone live awesome lives – except them…. on social media… Alexa blurting out bs… AGW… crowded cities… bills to pay … but still buying MORE on the credit card because they have a garage bay that is only half full …
It gets a MOREON down….
But… Covid is a path to Utopia… and Geta has been anointed the saviour…
Played like a banjo these MOREONS….
One does have to wonder what is going on in a person’s head…
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1445104926431006722?s=20
The British state is trimming its infantry and its capacity for sustained international interventions.
That ties in with the theme of Gail’s previous article, about the Western exit from Afghanistan – and the withdrawal of energy use toward the domestic (and then perhaps toward a core of the domestic).
UK will be lucky to keep its energy grid lit, and its petrol pumping, this winter – let alone sustain long military interventions abroad.
I suspect that ‘intervention’ in the future will no longer be about ‘building states’, it will eventually be reduced to the use of planes and drones to explode stuff in other countries – and then to nothing.
Certain groups (AQ/ IS) will certainly be considering these developments closely. They are perhaps liable to somewhat be adapted to post-industrial conditions anyway – or not, time will tell.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10074159/Army-plans-huge-cuts-infantry-troops-axed.html
> Revealed: Army plans huge cuts to its infantry that could see up to a third of troops axed as critics fear UK won’t be able to fight lengthy wars like in Iraq
Reductions in personnel will see the British military send smaller-sized forces on shorter missions, rather than bigger and longer deployments such as Iraq and Afghanistan.
It still has not given up its imperial dreams, not considering the inconvenient fact that it doesn’t have the resources to fight wars in some godforsaken corner anymore.
The level of delusion in official circles here in Britain is astounding.
In the end, the army will serve only to repress ‘domestic terrorism’, probably with sticks…..
If at the end of the day, the main role of ones troops is to control the natives, then one will need less troops.
Luna-cov-69
Further research in the previously hidden e-mails of Dr. Faucki reveal new information about the virus termed SARS-cov-2. In the beginning of pandemic, public attention was diverted towards the bio-lab in Wuhan China as the source of the outbreak. Originally there was the ridiculous assertion that the source of the virus was the outdoor food market that sold bat meat. What a coincidence that the government lab that researched bio-weapons was only a few miles away.
The virus was initially referred to as the “novel corona virus”. These new revelations tell us just how novel the virus actually is. Correspondence between Dr. Faucki and NASA reveal that Faucki was trying to gain position of the viruses that had been brought to Earth by the Apollo missions. To say this virus was novel is something of an understatement. It has not existed on Earth since the Moon was formed. That is until Neil Armstrong took a giant step for mankind and stepped on to the Moon and put his boot onto a pile of Lunar viruses. NASA was derelict and negligent in their failure to provide a door mat for the astronauts to wipe their feet on. Way to go NASA. We can see that they were on the road to the Challenger photo op.
So, to cover their tracks on the Earthly contamination by the Lunar viruses, they started the conspiracy that they never actually went to the Moon. They got that movie guy to come up with a bunch of stuff to cast question on the films they had and they threw out all the plans and records of the Apollo virus fiasco. They covered up the hundreds that died of the virus at NASA, from their comorbidities. Of course, the astronauts were all prime physical specimens so none of them died.
As recently posted, the GLOWIES, are everywhere. You can be sure that they are watching OFW to see if anyone dangerous pops up. Someone might start ranting about the need for guillotines and such. And it’s the perfect platform to spread the Moon “hoax” meme.
Three D News…..Deception, Diversion, Division
“So, to cover their tracks on the Earthly contamination by the Lunar viruses, they started the conspiracy that they never actually went to the Moon.”
And which MOREON fell for it?
I forgot to mention .. the friend I caught up with yesterday told me his friend’s wife is a nurse in Queenstown and she said that most of the people administering the Clot Shots at the drive throughs in the super market car parks… are not qualified… they have basic training (probably involves jabbing an orange)….
She also said that they are not maintaining quality control on the substances… they leave them sitting around at low temperatures… makes you wonder if that temperature thing is just a heap of shit … perhaps to create the aura of ‘high tech’.
Does anyone really think that third world countries that are hot year round would be able to maintain extremely cold temperatures required for storing the substances?
I have first hand experience with Bali’s medical system and it is a JOKE. Total incompetence…
I once had to get a rabies shot (a MOREON nipped me)… and I forget the details but I think they gave me only one shot …. I saw the doctor some days later (not sure what the first person was… a janitor?) and she said — you only got one shot? yes… shaking her head she said — you are supposed to get two….
In Indonesia you pay to get the better posts as a doctor… there is no merit… if you have money you get the job….
Does anyone seriously think a system like this could be trusted to carry out a mass vaccination campaign and keep the substances in a sub zero state? When in a place like Queenstown that is not always happening
Well, we did adopt fiat currencies and central banks. To counter reality. The physical plane approaching tower 1 can be seen on the radar already. That is, if you have a premium account.
There is a whole protocol to be followed, depending upon which version of the vaccine is given. I understand it is complicated. It is not easy for a “rich” country with all of the necessary refrigeration and syringes to follow. I am sure it is practically impossible in warm countries.
Also, many of these warm countries have very few COVID cases. They have been using ivermectin to cure tropical diseases; the side effect is very few COVID cases. It is hard to motivate people to come quite a distance for a vaccine that seems to be unneeded.
Indonesia is one country where vaccination is a must. Earlier in the year, they were mainly using the Chinese vaccines, but now some people are getting Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as well.
Talking about warm countries, countries like Singapore and Taiwan won’t have a problem since they are first world countries. The rest though ….
Vitamin D, ivermectin, aspirin, antihistamines and steroids, at the right times, would also work. In fact, ivermectin can prevent the illness, and vitamin D seems to greatly reduce its severity.
I would presume that Indonesia has access to cheap, old medicines such as these.
I agree with you Gail. In fact at one time Ivermectin became a hot topic in Indonesia …. for the wrong reasons. https://www.vogon.today/economic-scenarios/the-ivermectin-mess-in-indonesia-how-a-state-destroys-a-winning-situation/2021/07/16/
Government scums.
Not sure which countries you’re referring to, Gail. If you’re referring to the African countries that had a program of community led initiatives using ivermectin, I’d already posted a link to this paper which suggested that infections of COVID-19 decreased by 8% and deaths from COVID-decreased by 28%. However, a comment by Robert Coleblunders of the University of Antwerp thinks it unlikely that even this reduction was caused by the use of ivermectin, and gives his reasons.
Ahhhh….you were bitten by a rabid animal. That would explain your Cujo like behavior. You are an unfortunate victim of medical malpractice I’m afraid. The usual treatment plan is a series of shots. I think 4 injections over the course of 14 days. Of course I’m no doctor. Have you noticed any frothing at the mouth when you have a rage attack? Bitten anyone lately?
Actually … someone smashed my dog with a boulder and broke his back… I went to search for him and found him in a culvert in the dark scared and in pain … when pulled him out he bit me…
We left Bali soon after this …
Not sure if this comment made it… again…
Someone bashed our dog with a boulder and broke his back… (that was after someone chopped the head off of our cat) when he failed to return I went out with a flashlight and found him in a culvert suffering … when I pulled him out he bit me…
We are quite sure it was the neighbour who had tapped into our water supply which came from a bore 80m down… when we found his tap we informed him that if he needed water that was not a problem but we prefer that he ask rather than run the pump all night long day after day cranking our power bill through the roof… apparently that did not go over well.
He’d done the same thing to one of the other neighbours….
We left Bali soon after this …
Like you said, nothing like a fat PR budget. Ghosts in the theme park. Hahahahaha. You’re so easily bought.
A friend got sick on a Carribean vacation. The “doctor” gave him a used coke bottle to use for a urine SAmple.
Are you ready to earn your “Civic Dollars?” In Belfast, you can:
“How it works…
Find an earning zone
“There are over 50 zones across Belfast & beyond. Find out where your nearest zone is & head on over…”
Earn your dollars
“Once you’re in the zone, you can start earning dollars! The more time you spend in the zone, the more dollars you will earn.”
Spend or donate!
“Now the difficult part, deciding what to do with your dollars! You can choose to spend them on a reward or donate them to a community group!”
Citizens
“Earning Civic Dollars is as easy as a “walk in the park!” You can earn Civic Dollars by spending time within the allocated zones of parks, open spaces, heritage, and conservation. You can also earn Civic Dollars by volunteering in the community or reporting issues like anti-social behavior, litter, fly tipping while in a zone.
“The Civic Dollars you earn can be spent on rewards that range from leisure centre access, public transport, discounts from local businesses.
“You can also choose to donate some or all of your Civic Dollars to a local community group, sports club or charity. These organizations can then get access to rewards that are unique to their needs.”
https://www.civicdollars.com/
http://www.covidvaccinebounty.com
I found a similar site… CovIDIOTS get paid for every un-vaxxed person that they can capture and deliver to the Injection Stations.
I think you are “pulling our leg.”
But I sometimes wonder whether healthcare employees get a bonus for every person they talk into getting vaccinated.
GPs in the UK get a bonus per head for the people on their register who are injected, I believe.
This encourages a high ethical standard, of course…..
Like getting paid for scalps
well
on monday, i’m getting my booster shot, and visiting an old friend who is in a dementia care home near the clinic
might the two be linked i wonder? Dyou think they’ll let me out once I go in there? He might escape leaving me in his place. Would the staff know the difference?
Takes him a couple of minutes to remember who I am…but then the old times come back. Which is good.
Just thought I’d toss that in eddy—your fuse has been getting a bit damp lately…a bit of fresh grapeshot might be useful,
make the most of it
When I was in my 20’s, I had a grand vision for a new form of “green stamp” that one could earn by participating in volunteer work, community gardening and/or other civic duty. The green stamp would be a virtual certificate facilitated by a new online portal called “Replenish” with anonymous activity generating map overlays offering visual signs of improvement or highlighting at-risk areas.. zones if you will. The data could be used for community assessments and grant proposals. Businesses, philanthropists and others with cash could donate to the program to encourage skills training, to uplift people in recovery and to support grassroots efforts like Habitat for Humanity. The problem I saw was the elitism of establishment nonprofit leaders and that the profile and data collection for this type of system could be hacked and used for surveillance and control. By that time, I was aware that I was being targeted for my activism so I abandoned the whole deal and became a maniac/wounded bird to see who was attacking the nest. As a side note, during that time there was a fantastic local pool hall called Fast Eddies on Route 11 in Carlisle, PA (home of the Army War College) where I would imbibe away the “troubles” and often rant about “they,” lol. At another local watering hole, I shared drinks with some liberal college professors from Burlington, VT. and we traded insults while reminiscing about the elaborate pageants at the Bread and Puppet festival near Glover in the mid-90s. Good times!
Much more nice and user-friendly than chinese social credit system!
In short: “behave like a good dog and you get a treat”. It seems fair, and perfectly adjusted to the physical and emotional needs of any domestic animal. I predict Civic Euros will be a smash hit.
Woof.
This is not benign, it’s one of the tools of the Great Re-set, set out by the WEF.
Control, not liberty.
Rewards for performing desired activities, when and where they want – but if you won’t go litter-picking and be a virtuous Greenie, etc?
This is from Dec. 2020:
“Power shortages have been reported in Zhejiang province, an economic powerhouse in eastern China; the southern provinces of Hunan and Jiangxi; as well as in Shaanxi province in the northwest and Guangdong province in the southeast.
In recent weeks, according to Reuters, more than a dozen Chinese cities in these provinces have imposed restrictions on power use, and some directives, such as in Wenzhou and Yiwu in Zhejiang province, are forcing factories to scale back production”.
https://www.powermag.com/china-suffers-widespread-blackouts-amid-coal-supply-shortage/
This is from today – Oct. 2021:
“Dozens of mines in China’s Inner Mongolia, a major coal producing region, were instructed to increase their capacity by more than 98 million tonnes in an official notice not released to the public, the state-run Securities Times reported.
Nearly 60 percent of China’s energy-hungry economy is fuelled by coal, and the country has struggled to wean itself from the fuel despite its pledge to become carbon neutral by 2060.
China has been hit by widespread power cuts that have forced factories to delay production as businesses are ordered to minimize energy usage”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-orders-mines-to-up-coal-production-by-nearly-100-million-tonnes-state-media/ar-AAPgUqE?li=BBnbfcL
This is from July 2020:
Tumbling crude prices have a first and immediate effect: Lost revenue for oil services companies such as Baker Hughes and Halliburton as spending on drilling and fracking new wells is quickly cut off. The explorers who hire them are somewhat better protected because they’re able to buy insurance, known as hedges, on falling oil prices. But hedges ultimately run out. And that leads to another effect: the shale producers may be forced to write down their own assets by $300 billion this year, to reflect assets that are worth less as oil prices stay low, Deloitte said. While the writedowns are non-cash items, they reduce the value of an explorer’s equity and increase its debt-to-equity ratios, a key measure of indebtedness used by lenders. The shale industry’s leverage ratio would increase to 54% from 40% with the writedowns, according to Deloitte. That could lead to more companies getting cut off by lenders.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/shales-bust-shows-basis-of-boom-debt-debt-and-debt/2020/07/22/0e6ed98c-cc41-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html
This is from today – Oct. 2021:
Crude and natural gas drillers chastened by last year’s unprecedented collapse in demand and prices haven’t responded to the recent market rebound as the industry typically does by expanding the search for untapped fields. While international crude and U.S. gas have risen more than 50% and 120% this year, respectively, drilling outlays are only forecast to increase by 8% globally, Moody’s said in a report Thursday.
That’s too little to replace what those companies will pump from the ground in 2022, setting the stage for even tighter supply scenarios, Moody’s analysts including Sajjad Alam wrote in the report.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/10/7/oil-industry-needs-500-billion-to-avoid-future-supply-crises-says-moody-s
The road from narrative to reality is paved with failing intensions.
Well connecting the dots I’d say the reality of peak affordable oil is upon us and slipping fast. As things close and people freeze there will be a glut and drop in prices in the spring. Next winter will be like this one and the last one. Always a little worse, more rattles on the cage.
Gail will be right in the end – nobody will be able to afford it and FF will be left in the ground. Pesky little thing EROEI.
That’s a reasonable viewpoint, the onset of ~peak affordable~ from within IC realm will be (already is) experienced as slow muddling through by daily perspective, and only in ~3-5-7yrs rear view looking mirror stages as the larger systemic shift taking place.
In practice, various amenities will be vanishing, punctuated by occasional hard shocking irreversible slump, e.g. from certain point only one running car in the family (and semi – rationed fuel), or interrupted heating / electricity, seasonal swings in food availability / caloric input (onset of occasional real hunger vs. mere inconvenienced food choice) etc.; mid-late 2020s.
And somewhere/time along the way even harder hitting adjustment profile comes about, war / insurgency at home front, currency crises, real mortality spike .. I guess this latter part of deterioration should be baked in by ~2035..
Most probable, ‘world of’.
I have accordingly entered ‘Wine, Women, Song (and dogs) ‘ for 2021-25 in my 2020-40 diary planner.
The rest may well remain blank…..
“The pattern of viral diversification in newly infected individuals provides information about the host environment and immune responses typically experienced by the newly transmitted virus. For example, sites that tend to evolve rapidly across multiple early-infection patients could be involved in enabling escape from common early immune responses, could represent adaptation for rapid growth in a newly infected host, or could represent reversion from less fit forms of the virus that were selected for immune escape in previous hosts.
The process of diversification from the transmitted virus provides information about the selection pressures experienced by the virus during the establishment of a new infection. In this paper, we […] found evidence of adaptive evolution, with a proportion of sites that tended to diversify more rapidly than expected under a model of neutral evolution. Several of these rapidly diversifying sites facilitate escape from early cytotoxic immune responses. Interestingly, hypermutation of the virus, brought about by host proteins as a strategy to restrict infection, appeared to be associated with early immune escape.”
Certainly, this must be a quote from a study showing how Covid vaccines make the virus stronger, more dangerous, more virulent, develop ADE, yada yada, right?
Wrong. This study from 2009 is titled “HIV Evolution in Early Infection: Selection Pressures, Patterns of Insertion and Deletion, and the Impact of APOBEC”. There is no vaccine against HIV to this day.
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1000414
Interesting!
The trend would be significantly limiting participation of countries who are mostly consumers, i.e. most countries in Asia , Africa and Latin America.
The Pay-as-you-go system should be introduced, and countries which can’t pay should be given no aid, nothing.
A major humanitarian crisis is brewing in several countries, and being harsh to such crises is the first step to weather the storm.
In the old days, would be immigrants to Hong Kong were routinely run over by guard boats, who made sure the propellers were strong enough to dice off the uninvited guests. There was some pole in the middle of the sea; if someone made it to the sea, which was few and far between, the person was admitted.
It was the loophole which led people to try since that gave the would be immigrants a hope.
There were a few people from South Korea, with criminal records or were not doing so great there, crashing into North Korea. NK kindly sent back such refugees back home, and they were treated as traitors. So there has been really no refugees trying to sneak into there.
The legacy world of past few decades, especially the latest period since GFC meant that China gained influence in various UN / WHO / .. agencies. So, propping up the 2.5-3rd world was top agenda for the Belt and Road and similar schemes they pushed forward to grow their industries and nurturing domestic pop.
Now, very recently (yesterday?) as discussed by Gammon and boyz, it looks like China is likely moving on purpose inwards again (to some degree) that would mean jettisoning at least some of the china-globalist agenda, i.e. leaving many former 3rd world “partners” hang to dry.. They cite even some ~2018 BIS paper about these megatrends in global over saturation and nascent meltup..
That leads us to forecasting potential for even greater migration waves and upheavals in not so distant future in various vectors of acute dis-balance in wealth (Latin America northbound, ME to Europe, lesser Asia towards China..)..
I will grant at the outset that ‘meaning’ is more about the ‘interpretation’ than the ‘facts’, and that you seem to be more concerned with ‘purposeful meaning’ than with ‘facts’ per se – still, this is the breakdown of the estimated total energy use of regions in 2019 by Mtoe (millions of tons of oil equivalent).
Europe 1811
CIS 1074
N America 2515
L America 815
Asia 5983
Pacific 155
Africa 829
https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-consumption-statistics.html
Total 13,182
Europe (excluding the eastern European countries in CIS – Belarus, Moldova, Russia – Ukraine?) comprised 13.73% of global energy use in 2019; NA 19.07%; the two combined 32.80%. Asia comprised 45.38%. China alone made up about 24% – pushing twice that of Europe.
*
I suspect that you may be deliberately ‘fabricating meaning’, which I do not intend as a detraction – humans do it all the time, and arguably there is no ‘meaning’ without that. ‘Off to the stars’, and all that.
Humans obviously fabricate ‘purpose, meaning’ and fabricate ‘narratives’ about the purported ‘order’ that facilitates the ‘purpose’ – which seems to be what you are about. ‘Facts’ are often ‘fitted’ to the ‘narrative’ – arguably some of that always goes on when humans construct narratives, and it is not in itself a ‘bad’ thing in so far as the ‘will’ may go on to genuinely shape the ‘facts’ through agency, or otherwise cope.
It would perhaps be missing the point to ‘criticise’ your ‘narrative’ – it is subjective and fabricated, and not ‘true’, but no human narratives are ‘true’. It is one narrative among many possible, and indeed competing, narratives.
I do not ‘agree’ with you, and I am in any case more interested in interpreting narratives – yours tend to focus the mind. I think that you have your work cut out to ‘substantiate’ your narrative – in so far as that is the ‘point’ of narratives. ‘Facts’ are always liable to be awkward for ‘grand narratives’.
‘All meaning is will to power.’ But no regions are going to go any quieter into the night than you would not have Europe.
> Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light. – Dylan Thomas.
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I do think that you are being unrealistic about the chances of any high energy civilisation extending beyond an approaching end of fossil fuels – for reasons that Gail has alluded to many times. In that sense, your narrative seems to be a non-starter – especially on this forum. Dennis L. seems to go in for the moon mining narrative. This forum may be too ‘pessimistic’ in any case to support your narrative. Or maybe that part is not what you are really about.
You seem to favour ‘aristocracy’ – so presumably you would want a ‘native’ ‘under-caste’ only in so far as you view them as already bred to docile subjugation. Otherwise what would it matter to you? ‘Breeds’ change all the time in changing circumstances however, and industrialisation has been going for centuries, certainly in Britain. Perhaps a technologically advanced civilisation is inessential to your objective, and it functions only as a ‘narrative’ toward that. You have previously spoken approvingly of ‘long stagnation’. Perhaps the narrative is intended to deliver the subject caste.
Any analysis of your argument must afford the possibility of the ulterior motive. Is the social ‘order’ ordered to the ‘purpose’ in your narrative – or is the ‘purpose’ ordered to the social ‘order’? Have you decided? ‘Means and ends’ are an imposed interpretation in all purposeful narratives.
Or you may figure that the ‘to the stars’ narrative functions for you ‘either way’, supposing an uncertainty of future facts about energy availability.
The above list is misleading since a lot of energy spent in the so called First World is to produce goods which are ultimately consumed in the Third World.
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20858.jpeg
China really provides an amazing share of the world’s total manufacturing. If it has troubles, the world as a whole has troubles.
Nietzsche:
> The ascertaining of “truth” and “untruth,” the ascertaining of facts in general, is fundamentally different from creative positing, from forming, shaping, overcoming, willing, such as is of the essence of philosophy. To introduce a meaning – this task still remains to be done, assuming there is no meaning yet. Thus it is with sounds, but also with the fate of peoples: they are capable of the most different interpretations and direction toward different goals.
On a yet higher level is to posit a goal and mold facts according to it; that is, active interpretation and not merely conceptual translation. – TWTP 605
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I suspect that energy ‘facts’ are liable to prove pretty stubborn in the future – certainly in so far as grand narratives go. The ‘goal’ of capitalist societies might be fairly expressed as ‘capital accumulation’, as unpalatable as that might seem to idealists. That tends to ‘explain’ most things, however ‘free and democratic’ bourgeois states might like to posture.
As Marx explains, the state tends to be dominated by the interests of an organised class, according to the stage of economic development – be it classical slave, feudal, capitalist or socialist. Ideology, in practice, tends to be ‘ordered’ to the needs of the economic base, even if societies interpret it the other way around. ‘Means and ends’ is an imposed interpretation of the facts.
Societies are liable to find the ‘active interpretation’ (agency) of ‘facts’ to be somewhat more constrained in the future. ‘Goals’ have been pretty constrained by the capitalist state ‘qua’ itself anyway, certainly of late. If Europe ends up with feudal-esque societies, it will be out of energetic and material necessity, however much the societies ‘invert’ the relation between the energetic and material base and the ideology.
From the most ‘objective’ or ‘cosmic’ perspective, a person might say that societies and economies are ‘formed’ by the same forces that compel the formation of all dissipative structures in a ‘universal’, general, way in this cosmos. As such, ideological narratives are ‘secondary’ and ‘facilitative’, and they ‘form’ in the same ‘general’ way – especially if ‘free will’ (and causal consciousness?) is an illusion.
None of which is to say that ‘interpretation’ cannot be ‘active’ as structures reform. Humans do tend to shape the ‘facts’ through their agency anyway, within constraints – however much ‘all being is will to power’ and subject to formative forces. Consciousness and willingness (or at least responsivity to stimuli) are obviously ‘givens’.
One suspects that Nietzsche never got around to fully developing his energetic/ ‘power’ views in a holistic way. It might be harsh to say that he remained ‘anthropocentric’ and even ‘romantic’ in his focus. His ‘cosmic’ perspective is tucked at the very end of TWTP, and he generally interprets humans within the narrower perspective of the organic ‘biological’. It seems fair to at least say that his work, valuable as it is, remained unfinished.
If you are talking about countries or regions that ‘produce’ stuff, then most countries in Europe do not rank particularly highly. Germany is the only European country that makes the top 5 – the others are China, USA, Japan and S. Korea. France, Italy and UK are included in the top 11, along with India, Taiwan and Mexico. It is not a simple Eurocentric picture.
Services make up a large proportion of the global economy these days anyway (75% in high income countries). GDP ppp per capita gives a different table. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/
> Global manufacturing scorecard
…. China leads the world in terms of manufacturing output, with over $2.01 trillion in output (see Table 1). This is followed by the United States ($1.867 trillion), Japan ($1.063 trillion), Germany ($700 billion), and South Korea ($372 billion).
Manufacturing constitutes 27 percent of China’s overall national output, which accounts for 20 percent of the world’s manufacturing output. In the United States, it represents 12 percent of the nation’s output and 18 percent of the world’s capacity. In Japan, manufacturing is 19 percent of the country’s national output and 10 percent of the world total. Overall, China, the United States, and Japan comprise 48 percent of the world’s manufacturing output.
The global manufacturing scorecard talks about a rating it does on “manufacturing environment”:
I would expect that “inexpensive” should really be an important consideration with respect to which location is chosen. This has pretty much nothing to do with manufacturing environment.
But the 2018 article does give some moderately recent information on manufacturing by country, which is what you are quoting.
“A large gas refinery in the Far East of Russia has been shut down after a fire erupted at the site early on Friday morning.”
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/355074/major-russian-gas-plant-shut-down-following-fire/
“Europe to Get Hit of Cool Weather Next Week Just as Wind Drops.
“Cooler weather is set to increase demand for heating across Europe from next week adding pressure to already strained energy markets where price moves have become extremely volatile.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/europe-to-get-hit-of-cool-weather-next-week-just-as-wind-drops
But the IEA has been “pushing” intermittent electricity. Surely they must know the risks involved.
“Aldel is halting production of primary aluminium due to the current high electricity prices, the Dutch firm’s chief executive said on Friday.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dutch-aluminium-maker-aldel-halt-output-due-power-prices-2021-10-08/
I hope they never reboot that plant and keep it shutdown 4 ever. Such a waste of energy
I keep saying the same thing about ski hills….
Imagine the amount of energy that is wasted to lift people up the hill… for the sole purpose of gliding back down the hill … stopping … getting back on the lift and repeating that over and over and over again….
The ski represents all that is wrong with humans…. if we had any sense we’d do what the mice do… imagine the health benefits!
http://www.wishforpets.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/hamster-mouse-lighting-wheel-1.gif
I wonder why Geta doesn’t organize protests at the ski hills in Europe?
Why not stand at the entrance with placards urging people to go home and stop wasting so much energy….
Ah… because the people who control Geta … don’t want that … because they do not want people to take real action against AGW … because they know AGW is bs…. and taking action would collapse BAU….
Instead they instruct Geta to target ‘they’ … it’s those governments who are doing nothing (although she never says anything about China — and all those coal power plants being built there!)…
Geta is as real as the AGW crisis is real…. but that would not occur to a MOREON….. because MOREONS are stoooopid….
FE against skiing??? Has FE been replaced by a NZ government employee?
I am willing to sacrifice in order to save the planet Ed….
It just occurred to me that one of my other hobbies – ice hockey — involved a tremendous waste of energy keeping that ice sheet frozen… we need to shut down the ice rinks too.
Then there’s ferris wheels … roller coasters… these are just the low hanging fruit…. once Geta is in charge we’ll shut down anything that wastes energy and contributes to AGW….
FE it is not waste it is use. What has gotten into you? Throw another plastic coal bag on the fire.
Does it feel like we are slowly powering down BAU?
Airlines … autos…. smelters… work from home… everything appears to be aimed at reducing our energy burn…
Now why would we do that?
BAU -> quasiBAU -> degrowthBAU -> no longer “BAU” at all..
The only reason this stuff is happening is because the world is dealing with a deadly pandemic, Eddy.
Look, if we all just wear our masks and take our shots everything will go back to normal. It’s the unvaxed that are holding back BAU. Get with the program, man!
careful of that fuse Azure
norm… you are totally lost …
Fires always seem to come along at the worst possible time. I wonder if this related to the fact that when production seems to be short, necessary maintenance tends to be postponed. Looking at the article, this doesn’t seem to be the case this time. It is barely out of construction, and it is very near the border with China.
42 billion cubic meters amounts to 7% of Russia’s current natural gas production, or 5% of Russia+’s natural gas production. It represents a much larger share of their exports.
So many coincidences all at the same time….
As only JHK can word it: “The Mark Of The Beast”
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-mark-of-the-beast/
As always .. a great read …
Let’s not forget this
Just eight of the 33 Vermonters who died of Covid-19 in September were unvaccinated, the Vermont Department of Heath said Wednesday.
Health Department spokesperson Ben Truman said most of the vaccine ‘breakthrough’ Covid-19 fatalities were elderly. Because they were among the first vaccinated, Vermont’s elderly “have had more time to potentially become a vaccine breakthrough case,” he said.
Expressed in percentages, 76% of Vermont Covid-19 fatalities were breakthrough cases. As of Tuesday, 88 percent of all eligible Vermonters (age 12 and over) had been vaccinated with at least one shot.
https://vermontdailychronicle.com/2021/09/30/76-of-september-covid-19-deaths-are-vaxxed-breakthroughs/