|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:
- With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
- With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
- With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.
All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.
In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:
[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.
[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.
In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.
[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.
The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.
The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.
Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.
[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.
With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:
- To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
- To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
- To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
- To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified
Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.
Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.
As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.
Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).
The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.
We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.
High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.
Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.
[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.
Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.
Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.
Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.
If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.
The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.
China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.
[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.
The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.
A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.
With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.
[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.
Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.
This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.
[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.
Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.
Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.
The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.
The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.
Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.
Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.
The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.
[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.
With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.
A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?
A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.
I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.
Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.
[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.
Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.
The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.
The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.
We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.
Thank you for another researched, balanced and thoughtful post. Among the ever increasing choirs of chaotic and random messages out there, this blog comes trough as a refreshing spring of pure and valuable information. Thanks again!
You are welcome. Sorry I was so slow in getting it up.
Oil price near 90 dollar. This Will give inflation. This Will give markets crash. And After coapsecof everything
Rising interest rates will lead to part of the problem, as well, I expect.
Quebec City musician Karim Ouellet, a Juno award winner and Félix award nominee who broke through with his heartfelt 2012 hit song L’Amour, was found dead Monday at a music studio in Quebec City.
He was 37.
Sources told Radio-Canada that Ouellet’s body was discovered Monday night at L’Unisson studio in Quebec City’s Saint-Roch neighbourhood. Quebec City police have ruled out foul play, and the coroner will investigate to determine the cause of death.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/karim-ouellet-obit-1.6318793
VaxxDEATH
One of the few serious prognostics among the many forecasters today is the Czech geologist Václav Cílek:
https://youtu.be/Js0dhqM1NRk
The transcription of the video:
https://www.kupredudominulosti.cz/clanky/
The correct link of the transcription of the video to Václav Cílek:
https://www.kupredudominulosti.cz/cilek-vaclav-3d-na-svobodu-uz-si-jenom-hrajeme-sice-si-muzeme-rikat-co-chceme-ale-nema-to-zadny-vliv-na-vyvoj/
This is a google Translate version of what Václav Cílek says:
I am afraid he is right.
few people now alive in the developed world can remember a time when shops were not overflowing with every ‘cheap’ product imaginable.
so we ‘demand’ that it must always be like that, into our future. politicians want to keep their jobs, so they strive to do that.
but —to repeat myself ad nauseam—those goods are there , first through availablity of cheap surplus energy, and second through borrowing like crazy to pretend that that cheap energy is still available to us.
Capitaism only works with growth! That is over!
…………. works with degrowth?
Norman, do you have concepts for survival?
Saludos
el mar
Capitalism …
True. It’s about survival, whatever it is that grows or doesn’t grow. Whatever name they give it is a less than useful abstraction.
at my age every day is a form of survival—thought I’d get that in before eddy does. when i get a good offer i shall sell my body to medical science.—then cheat them with immortality.
like it or not, we seem to be locked into a system that can only function on capital growth, anything that doesn’t involve growth seems to be some kind of subsistence living—ie growing your own food, and barter.
capital growth can only function on increasing energy input, which we no longer have.
so we have replaced that with ‘infinite debt’ to give ourselves a pretend existence.
that will play itself out, but when is anybodys guess
They have this brand of dog food – in the budget section — I suspect it’s the remains of ground up geriatrics…. it’s called Gray Soylent Dog Chow
originality is all eddy—-well done
try to make that your writing aim for 22—make a comment all your own, sling your words together in packages no one else has thought of before you and your writing will be the better for it.
Life back at/before turn of 20th century and as recent as less than 80 years ago in US Appalachian mountain settlements (find the reference to Pearl Harbor newspaper article on the wall)
Large piles of biomass energy and transition to early forms of modern homestead living powered by coal – check out the recycled newspaper construction tecnique increasing home heating efficiency
Gonna be hi-tech in the not too distant future (5 years or 20 years both a blink of eye) How spoiled we are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UXrBN9dJ7k&t=330s
“Appalachian People How they Heated their Homes back in the day”
Funny – certainly didnt follow a straight path in getting to the above Home Heating Tech video –
I was reading Russian analyst site regarding Ukraine situation
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
He for some reason commented on beauty/femininity of Kate Middleton (Duchess of York) (The whole UK – Russian 100s of years of history thing I guess – Russians still have a thing for “royalty” and UK despises Russia)
In Russian’s comment section an alternative beauty was mentioned – a former Ukrainian attorney who became Russian in 2014 and assumed Crimea Prosecutor General position
Natalia Poklonskaya as a competing beauty – You decide (The uniform is not military – they dress their prosecutors up like this):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCMDBqHa78Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avn1tAHGxvM
Maybe more very cute in a perpetual youth/Jennifer Anniston kinda way?
Anyhow… So while watching the second link (which was actually the first that I was led to but not as good of an introduction for OFW) – the Appalachian home heating video pops up!
Definitely “Notastraightpath” tonight
Is pre-Appalachian living where Russia is gonna put US if we dont stop playing games?
PS- the prosecutor besides becoming a Japanese/Chinese anime fanboy fantasy 7 years ago went on to Russian Duma (legislature) but is now listed as ambassador to Cabo Verde. Perhaps Putin thought her profile was too high as some comments indicated rumors of support for her running for Russian President several years ago. Most recent youtube of instagram videos has her at home in pajamas at the stove making simmered spicy hot holiday drinks interspersed w/ playful kitten pics…so maybe she will or won’t be Russia’s post-Putin Presidential Candidate???
I’m a bit confused by this post — is this a p or n link?
This is the speech that made her famous, a few days before the first attempt on her life. I saw the video within a few days, I fell for her when she said (around 0:40) that the only source of power is the people, and I have not quite recovered yet. Do not forget to turn on subtitles
i could just listen to her talk
who needs subtitles
I live in a very thickly wooded area and it feels like the woods have always been here but then I’ll come across a photo or map from around 1890-1920 and it’s totally barren except for the occasional shade tree grown to keep the summer afternoon sun off the house. Even with hand tools large areas will be quickly cut down and burned up once fossil fuels leave us.
Yes. And until conservation rules came into play game animals were nearly wiped out — and there was a fraction of the population at the time…
Doomies – consider this. You have your shack and magically the hordes don’t come and pillage and murder you…
You chop trees near your house to burn … cuz now you have nothing to haul the wood with other than your back… then you chop trees a little further .. then a little further .. then a little further — then you get to the point where you are so far from your shack that you spend all your time chopping and hauling trees to your shack… at some point there is no time to do anything else (like wash clothes by hand … and grow food)
Or you can build another shack – and a new garden and fences etc…
Don’t worry – long before that happens the spent fuel payload will come for you
I am resorting to cutting and splitting wood manually….trying to adjust to no FF. I have 40 acres of natural hardwood forest and mostly collect fallen limbs and logs. Learning to go manual I have invested in high quality German made saws ans also manual hydraulic logsplitters. Learning how to sharpen saws. Hauling logs without FF will be a problem that only a mule with harness will solve. I reckon in winter those of us with wood to burn will huddle in tents around the wood stove. Winters will be hard.I think that I have enough forest to be sustainable…assuming no one comes and logs it all and take it from me.
“Coppicing and pollarding are two methods of wood pruning that allows us to continually harvest wood from the same trees while keeping them healthy for centuries. They produce a sustainable supply of timber for many generations while enhancing the natural state for wildlife and native plants.”
https://midwestpermaculture.com/2012/11/coppicingpollarding/
“I am resorting to cutting and splitting wood manually”
Nice! Gave up on that. Hydraulic splitter. Of course species matter. Ponderosa sucks to split. There nothing quite as satisfying as spitting wood by hand. Effortless power!
A couple years ago their was just a glut of beetle kill. All consumed now! Even on the federal level. All consumed. Funny how that happens.
“I have 40 acres of natural hardwood forest and mostly collect fallen limbs and logs.”
What a beautiful stewardship. You are blessed! My experience is that those that live close to the land… The land changes them. For the better. The best of gifts.
Try cutting a decent sized tree 500m from your house… with an axe..then splitting it and carrying it to your house.. Let us know how long that takes.
You can’t use anything motorized to do any of this
Its quite enough work for a old man like me with a couple stihls, a truck, and a made in china hydraulic splitter! Chainsaws hard on old man hands…
That doesnt change the beautiful thing that a connection to the land is one bit. You should try it sometime. You do know that your faux chop the tree down with a bowie knife arguments demonstrate your deep longing for connection with the land dont you? I assume you know that with a 189.43 IQ!
Speaking of fast eddy recommended actions… Have you ever flipped your own breakers off or is that only for others? That i have done many a time-while doing photovoltaic system work- until i want some hot water. Hot water and bathing being the basis of all civilization 48 hours or so without max. Lighting is rather convenient also as is refrigeration. It is nice to take a break from a electrified home-in the summer when days are long- In the winter too much dark time. Yes i have passed the fast eddy test many many times. And enjoyed it. With cheating of course. If your not cheating your not trying.
Do you ever play hockey anymore? All work and no play makes eddy dull boy.
Whatever makes you happy … but none of this is going to work when BAU is gone…
I’m off to fish blue cod shortly … a very very very early start … that makes FE happy
I figured you had never taken your own fast eddy challenge. Why would you? You have already decided that humans are nothing without energy and its representation-money. Im not even saying you are wrong but im not affirming you are right. Well just see wont we? In the meantime BAU tonight baby!
Blue cod adventure sound fantastic and great nourishment! Glad you are getting out in nature! Dont forget to walk Hoolio. Good for the soul.
What a fantastic trip that was… definitely goes into the bucket list.
But get this — there are two caravans what serve fish and chips — but neither are allowing take-aways. They simply choose not to because … (No worries – we caught our limit on blue cod)
Oh and before getting on the ferry to the island – Fast goes to a cafe in Bluff and tries to buy coffee — the lady asks for the vax pass — Fast says oh ya HE has one but left HIS phone in the car… the lady eyes fast and says you sure you have one — cuz you can’t go on the ferry without it — oh ya says Fast – of course I have one…
Nevertheless she tells Fast HE must go outside and pick up his coffee there… Fast sees that they have a door similar to what the drug dealers use to move their product.. the lady slides open a small door built into the door — to serve HIM – and Fast thinking – what a f789ing wanker …. uses his telepathic power to make the small door fall out of the frame and nearly crash down on her foot!!!
She shrieks and says to the other lady — I’m so lucky – it didn’t hit my foot (and Fast is thinking – it didn’t hit your foot because I didn’t want it to hit your foot you dummmb MOREON – if it hit your foot then I would have to wait for my coffee while you moaned and wailed and I might miss the ferry)
Anyhow …there are only 400 people living on Stewart Island and zero covid — 90% are injected haaha… an island of MOREONS… hahahahahaha Zombie Island haha
We’re already planning a trip back but this time will stay a few nights — we have a contact who will scrape the sea bed for us to get oysters when the season starts in March (if we are not in the throes of Devil Covid) + get us a sack of marrywana… unfortunately not possible to get any dancing girls.
We may bring our High Powered Rifles along next time — Fast Eddy told our new mate that we will gun down a few Covidiots then chum the water with the bodies to attract the great whites and cruise nearby … then we will shoot the great whites and mount the heads… cuz that’s what humans do – right?
As Fast explained — he doesn’t really care to get in a cage and see the whites ($500 for that)… HE only wants to see one in action … (and open fire on it — he’s harboured that fantasy since watching JAWS in the 70’s… and wants some payback for all those times he dove into a lake and feared being snatched by a great white shark)
The boat guy was like — ya that makes perfect sense… (he was on with the shooting CovidIOT part) but I am not sure if the DOC wardens will be too keen if you shoot the sharks… and Fast is like — surely if we slip them a hundred bucks they’ll turn a blind eye… and he says … ya possibly… possibly….
I bet he’s never had a charter passenger with such… extreme ideas. He did ask Fast for an autograph when the trip ended… he could sense .. he’d just spent a day in the company of an entity that is… Übermensch…
I think you are a writer of fiction.
No … that’s all true.
ask anyone
It does give you more appreciation of the old settlers that did everything manually. Logging is hard work. That is why I collect fallen limbs. Cooking without BAU will be accomplished with two rocket stoves in the sunroom. Twigs and small limbs are all that is needed.
I have no misconceptions of cutting and splitting a winter’s supply of firewood for the stove. Dam hard work…but the secret is you do not wait until fall. Every week you cut some and split some. By doing a bit every day or week, you build up a sarge supply.
Try the FE challenge ..
We know nobody will for the same reason that CovIDIOTS would refuse to watch the Rogan McCullough interview … they cannot handle the truth
I agree and the land changes you for the better, if you want it to. If you are not close to the land, you do not appreciate it. If you are close to the land, and you are a steward, then it blesses you. It is the beauty of God’s creation. A shame that man destroys it.
I do want to leave a small island of land that may sustain a worthy survivor of BAU, of there are any.
I’m an o!d timer and for me the best set of Appalachian how to books prior to electricity and indoor plumbing are the series done my these Folks
Foxfire Series
Eliot Wigginton and Foxfire Fund, Inc.
Since the first volume published in 1972, the Foxfire books have brought the philosophy and wisdom of the mountains to millions, teaching creative self-sufficiency and preserving the stories, crafts, and customs of Southern Appalachia. Inspiring and practical, this classic series has become an American institution
Firefox is still out there., Recommend😜 it highly.
They may be very valuable after the end of electric and indoor plumbing.
https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/
Very very good video out of Canadian anti-vax group showing how Pfizer’s 6 mos report to FDA data shows how inadequate/rigged/poorly designed clinical trials were and how “effectiveness” misrepresented. Talks about how totally worthless & underpowered trials on children & young adults were such that almost impossible to detect significant adverse event – yet it did & that it was/is ignored.
Also includes discussion of conflicts of interest (Montage of all the MSM News networks w/ their “sponsored by Pfizer” intros.
PDF link to all slides used but video narration and animation not fully captured.
Need to watch for full impact – Narrated by an non-Karen female that emotively expresses rationale arguments – perhaps might breakthrough and be related to by Karens of the
Please Mike, I invite you to watch – I’m sure they misplaced a comma or used poor grammer somewhere such that you will justify fully ignoring true substance.
GET A HIGH QUALITY SMALLER VERSION OF THE VIDEO FROM preearth.net
A 50 MB version of this video (same quality as the 500+ MB video from rumble) can be found here (1920×1080):
http://www.preearth.net/videos/clinical-proof-pfizer-shots-do-more-harm-than-good.mp4
A 25 MB email sized version can be found here (960×540):
http://www.preearth.net/videos/clinical-proof-pfizer-shots-do-more-harm-than-good-960.mp4
Lots of other interesting covid videos can also be found at:
http://www.preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=1184
A presentation by Art Berman: Oil Essentials – scarcity or abundance and the energy transition
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/61d5bc2bb737636144dc55d0/t/61ddf96153634f28a1ec7b16/1641937256358/NJH+Presentation+December+2021.pdf
P 16 is huge
Wonder if there were any Doomers Expatriates who moved to there to escape the collapse?
Reuters
Undersea cable fault could cut off Tonga from rest of the world for weeks
Praveen Menon and Tom Westbrook
Tue, January 18, 2022, 4:41 AM
By Praveen Menon and Tom Westbrook
WELLINGTON/SYDNEY (Reuters) – The South Pacific archipelago of Tonga could spend days, or even weeks, cut off from the rest of world because of difficulties in repairing its sole undersea communications cable, which an operator said was ruptured during a massive volcanic eruption.
The challenge underlines the vulnerability of undersea fibre-optic cables, which have become the backbone of global communications, thanks to a capacity to carry data that is about 200 times that of satellites.
Saturday’s explosion of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano sent tsunami waves across the Pacific Ocean so that connectivity was lost on the line, operated by Tonga Cable Ltd, in waters about 37 kilometres (23 miles) offshore.
But the repair of Tonga’s critical 827-km (514-mile) fibre-optic link to Fiji depends on the arrival of a specialised ship now days away in Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea.
“Typically, all things going well, it would take around two weeks,” said Craige Sloots, marketing and sales director at Southern Cross Cable Network, which connects to the Tonga cable at Fiji.
That covers the eight or nine days the Reliance, the specialist cable repair ship in Port Moresby, will take to reach the affected area, while the crew also needs safety clearance for the repairs, he added.
“Its ability to repair would also be dependent, as you would expect, on any volcanic activity,” Sloots, who is based in Sydney, told Reuters.
“Fault-finding by Fintel and Tonga Cable Ltd on Sunday afternoon seems to confirm a likely cable break,” added Sloots, referring to Fiji’s telecoms provider.
The Reliance, owned by U.S. firm SubCom, a builder of underwater cable networks that is the repair contractor for more than 50,000 km (31,070 miles) of cable in the South Pacific, has completed five-yearly maintenance in Singapore.
It is in Port Moresby en route to its base in New Caledonia.
Cut off ….bye bye
I am afraid that small islands are quite vulnerable to collapse. They don’t have tiny populations that could feed themselves without any outside assistance.
Summary of Adverse Events in the U.K.
According to an updated report, the MHRA Yellow Card reporting system has recorded a total of 1,414,293 events based on 431,482 reports. The total number of fatalities reported is 1,932.
Pfizer (25.3 million first doses, 21.9 million second doses) now has one Yellow Card in 162 people vaccinated. Deaths: 1 in 36,988 people vaccinated (684).
AstraZeneca (24.9 million first doses, 24.1 million second doses) has one Yellow Card in 103 people vaccinated. Deaths: 1 in 21,066 people vaccinated (1,182).
Moderna (1.6 million first doses, 1.4 million second doses) has one Yellow Card in 50 people vaccinated. Deaths: 1 in 55,172 people vaccinated (29).
Overall, one in every 120 people vaccinated (0.83%) have experienced a Yellow Card adverse event. The MHRA has previously estimated that the Yellow Card reporting rate may be approximately 10% of actual figures. Note that sometimes in Yellow Card reporting, the numbers of adverse events (including fatalities) will be lower than the previous week. The Yellow Card system is a passive reporting system, so in theory this should not happen as all reports should be cumulative.
However, the MHRA say they analyse the data prior to publication, with deaths and pregnancy conditions being notably investigated. They do not state criteria by which reports would be removed and to date have not clarified why this data varies. It is therefore unclear how many reported adverse events have been removed from the reports since reporting began in February 2021.
Pulmonary Embolism & Deep Vein Thrombosis = 3,890
Anaphylaxis = 1,556
Acute Cardiac = 23,960
Pericarditis/Myocarditis = 1,723
Herpes = 4,915
Blindness = 478
Deafness = 730
Spontaneous Abortions = 709
Headaches & Migraines = 135,783
Vomiting = 18,154
Strokes and CNS haemorrhages = 2,999
Guillain-Barré Syndrome = 581
Facial Paralysis incl. Bell’s Palsy = 2,108
Tremor = 13,538
Seizures = 3,299
Paralysis = 1,407
Reproductive/Breast Disorders = 52,322
Further analysis can be found via the U.K. Freedom Project.
” The MHRA has previously estimated that the Yellow Card reporting rate may be approximately 10% of actual figures.”
A live presentation I watched on UK Column News a few months ago said the MHRA actually stated this on their website for all to see and so there could be no doubt, but they removed the warning when the figures for CV19 vaxx side effects started coming in.
Link, please.
Thank you
Daily Sceptic newsletter – check their site
Thank you. Kind regards
Fourth Vaccine Dose Makes No Difference, Study From Israel Shows
A fourth dose of Covid mRNA vaccine is not effective against Omicron infection, preliminary research from Israel has shown. Health Policy Watch has more.
“Despite a significant increase in antibodies after the fourth vaccine, this protection is only partially effective against the Omicron strain, which is relatively resistant to the vaccine,” lead researcher Prof Gili Regev-Yochay, told a media briefing on Monday.
Some 154 health workers at Sheba Medical Center received their fourth Pfizer shot two weeks ago. A week ago, 120 health workers received a shot of Moderna following three doses of Pfizer one week ago.
They were matched with a control group of around 6,000 health workers who have been being followed by the hospital since the start of Israel’s vaccination campaign in December 2020.
According to Regev-Yochay, the third dose resulted in “much higher antibodies, neutralisation and the antibodies were not just higher in quantity but also in quality” than the second dose – but the fourth vaccine did not show significant antibody increase.
“Maybe there are a few more antibodies but not much more compared to the third dose,” said Regev-Yochay.
Last week, she told Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett that there had been a five-fold increase in antibodies in people who took the fourth dose, but she later told a radio station that “the amount of antibodies returns to the level it was after the third vaccine, not more. It’s nice, but it’s not what we expect from a booster”.
In addition, around the same percentage of hospital workers who received the fourth dose caught the virus as those who didn’t get the fourth booster.
https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israel-fourth-covid-booster-ineffective/
BUT! The fifth shot will be the ticket!!! See Turkey hahahahahaha
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/former-bay-area-lockdown-guru-ok
Just what you’d want to do if you wanted to encourage the emergence of Devil Covid…
What you want is as many injected MOREONS prancing about and getting infected.
The IMbeciles will see this as a victory – it is the beginning of the end.
33 out of 36 DEAD – were injected
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=648069089844624&extid=WA-UNK-UNK-UNK-AN_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing
Seemingly baffled, Ontario Superior Court Justice Edward Morgan didn’t quite know what to say when told only one of the four defendants for a hearing showed up.
It was a landmark hearing for Ontario. Four doctors — Rochagne Kilian, Mary O’Connor, Mark Trozzi and Patrick Phillips — had been scheduled to appear to fight legal proceedings brought by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) late last year.
Trozzi, O’Connor and Kilian have been accused by the CPSO of failing to comply with investigations into allegations they issued false medical exemptions for the COVID-19 vaccine. Phillips, the CPSO says, is threatening to re-release a tranche of confidential documents on Twitter.
But on January 7, only O’Connor, and her lawyer Michael Swinwood, showed up on Zoom to argue their case.
“Alright. Um, ah, okay,” Morgan said, after being informed that Trozzi and Phillips’ lawyer, Michael Alexander, had decided to “withdraw” and would not be appearing at the hearing, despite CPSO counsel telling Alexander this was not allowed under civil procedure.
Conversation then turned to Kilian. Her lawyer, Rocco Galati, had been hospitalized and was in intensive care with an undisclosed illness, resulting in her case being rescheduled.
READ MORE: The great COVID-19 infodemic: How disinformation networks are radicalizing Canadians
The prominent anti-vaccine lawyer has frequently represented groups and individuals challenging vaccine mandates and has described vaccination as “experimentation.”
Morgan wished Galati good health before deciding to press ahead with the hearing.
What followed was a journey down a rabbithole of anti-Covid-19-vaccine rhetoric, conspiracy theories and one claim that the pandemic was a “planned exercise in population control.” It concluded with an argument from defense lawyer, Swinwood, that Canada’s Covid restrictions are akin to Nazi Germany regulations.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8517353/canada-doctors-covid-vaccine-disinformation/
That’s a depressing read…
Trozzi operates a website on which he blogs alongside Paul Elias Alexander — a Canadian health researcher and former Trump administration official. According to CPSO lawyer Peter Wardle, Trozzi has described the pandemic as a “planned exercise in population control.”
“He appears to be a very concerning individual with some very dangerous views,” Wardle said during the hearing
hahahahaha… this guy went to one of the top med schools in canada — now why would he go off the reservation and make these assertions – destroying his career — unless… unless…
https://www.ratemds.com/doctor-ratings/4010631/Dr-Mark-Trozzi-Harrow-ON.html/
And here’s another ‘dangerous’ doctor in Canada https://palexander.substack.com/
Check out the comments https://globalnews.ca/news/8517353/canada-doctors-covid-vaccine-disinformation/
More on the Lovely and the Filthy https://www.newsweek.com/jenna-jameson-misdiagnosed-guillain-barre-syndrome-partner-reveals-1670252
Video https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/11/entertainment/jenna-jameson-guillian-barre/index.html
What do we have here…..Dirty Jenna… has had a… Vaxxident….
https://www.ctvnews.ca/entertainment/jenna-jameson-s-partner-says-she-doesn-t-have-guillain-barr%C3%A9-syndrome-1.5745602
Are you a fan norm?
I also noticed that Kingsley Coman, a 25 year old soccer player for Bayern Munich, had heart surgery late last year…..
A lack of jobs in Kabul is leading to an ever-worsening hunger crisis
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/a-lack-of-jobs-in-kabul-is-leading-to-an-ever-worsening-hunger-crisis-1.5745485
Implode. ASAP
It is not a lack of jobs it is a lack of cash from the US. Now they have to work to earn money the old fashioned way. They have no skills, no infrastructure, no indigenous resources and so will starve.
WTI 87
Brent 89
so they have passed the 2021 highs of 84 and 86.
January could be the highest prices of 2022, or the lowest.
this is minor price movement, though OPEC+ must be enjoying this.
it’s doubtful that upper 80s will spur much more investment.
2022 could top 100, or drop to 50, we’ll see.
no big deal either way.
I thought the West struggled buying stuff …
In a wide-ranging and forthright interview with Freddie Sayers, Professor Cyrille Cohen, head of Immunology at Bar Ilan University and a member of the advisory committee for vaccines for the Israeli Government said:
– The Green Pass / vaccine passport concept was no longer relevant in the Omicron era and should be phased out (he expected it to be in short order in Israel)
– He and his colleagues were surprised and disappointed that the vaccines did not prevent transmission, as they had originally hoped
– The biggest mistake of the pandemic in Israel was closing schools and education – he apologised for that
– Widespread infection is now an inevitable part of future immunity — otherwise known as herd immunity
– Omicron has accelerated the pandemic into the endemic phase, in which Covid will be “like flu”
Yes of course! Now that the almost everyone is injected multiple times what you want to do is let er rip….
That means more infected Covidiots to serve on your Mutant Breeder Industrial Farm — in the Quest for Devil Covid – and Extinction.
All going according to plan.
“– He and his colleagues were surprised and disappointed that the vaccines did not prevent transmission, as they had originally hoped”
WTF oh right, some so-called experts couldn’t see that one coming.
they fell for the Pfizer ModeRNA pfropaganda.
$$$$$ oh I’m so surprised.
We can all wonder:
“He and his colleagues were surprised and disappointed that the vaccines did not prevent transmission, as they had originally hoped”
It doesn’t work that way.
But… BUT .. they were thoroughly tested… so why the surprise?
They are definitely NOT tested for long term effects…
norm .. good think you are nearly 100 years old…. there’s no long term to worry about
But that grand daughter… ooooh… that poor thing
As they had originally hoped!!!??? You mean they did not test it to determine if it would work!!!!!! Science is about the hope????
Deaths in New Zealand
thanks.
“The narrative is broken; the agenda rolls on.”
the global vaccine program is a TOTAL FAILURE!
the $$$$$ agenda rolls on.
maybe, just maybe, from here in mid January where we see this failure, maybe just maybe the vaccine push madddness comes to a screeeeching halt by the end of 2022.
that’s a big maybe.
but the next dominant variant is due within a few months, and that should damage the official narrative even more.
why isn’t DEATH the standard for judging the vaccines?
the 2020 vaccine trials showed that there were significantly more deaths in the vax group than in the placebo group.
is Mother Jacinda responsible for these excess deaths?
In sad corrupt Neanderthalic new zealand scientific information is first filtered through the ‘can’t hurt the feelings of officials’ filter before it is acknowledged as fact. Stupid monkeys.
Excellent – more deaths please … I demand MORE… I want these MOREONS to drop like dead flies …
Booster Time mike!
The New Zealand report that Chris reports on first is especially interesting.
https://hatchardreport.com/relationship-between-covid-19-vaccination-and-all-cause-mortality/
New Zealand rolled out vaccines without actually having any actual covid cases within the country, so it is possible to look at the effect of the vaccines, by themselves, on the death rate. The article is only about deaths of people who are over 60. I calculated that at the peak, the overall deaths in this age group were up 27%, apparently for the vaccine rollout alone. This is a link to the chart:
https://hatchardreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/hatchard-report-graph-2-ws.jpg.webp
https://hatchardreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/hatchard-report-graph-2-ws.jpg
On the left is the blue line is the number of vaccine doses; on the right is the number of deaths. The number of deaths has its base a number of 500, presumably since this is how many people over age 60 die in New Zealand in a given week.
The number of excess deaths rise and fall with the number of vaccine doses given. The article says:
“The number of excess deaths in the weeks following vaccination is consistent with reports of 670 suspicious deaths proximate to vaccination submitted voluntarily to NZDSOS and NZ Health Forum and could actually be larger.”
I would like to know what the expected number of deaths over age 60 was, during the roll out period, and how much deaths actually rose from this expected amount.
I would also like to know a death rate, per 100 or 1000 shots. Evidently, the author didn’t want to go out on a limb and say anything.
I would also like to know the corresponding statistics for people under age 60. Maybe someone plans to write up an academic paper on this. As it is, the article is more like a news story or blog post.
More good news https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/auto-stocks-watch-after-ugly-european-vehicle-registration-data-shows-22-plunge
Gail, Hope all is well with you and you and your loved ones had a nice Holiday Season😜🎇, and good insight here as usual..
Here’s an example predicament
Climate Change Demands More Air Conditioning
An often-disparaged technology is a lifesaver, not a luxury.
By Faine Greenwood, an expert on unmanned aerial vehicles, technology in humanitarian aid, remote sensing, spatial data, and data policy and ethics.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/16/climate-change-air-conditioning-heat-waves/
timated that, globally, access to air conditioning averted 195,000 heat-related deaths among people ages 65 and older in 2019.
In simplest terms, then, millions of people are alive today who would be dead if not for air conditioning.
Many people assume that air conditioning is worse for the environment than heating is. After all, why do we hear about it so much more? The truth is that heating a home uses considerably more energy than cooling one does. A 2020 study found that homes located in the coldest parts of the United States used considerably more energy and largely emitted more greenhouse gases than those in the warmest parts of the country did. A 2013 study concluded that living in colder climates in the United States demands more overall energy than living in warmer climates does: Climate control in Minneapolis uses about three and a half times more energy than it does in Miami.
And another on the opposite side…
How the Refrigerator Became an Agent of Climate Catastrophe
The evolution of cooling technology helps to explain why supposed solutions to global warming have only made the situation worse.
By David Owen
use of cooling technology is growing worldwide. China now accounts for close to half of global air-conditioner purchases and roughly three-quarters of global production; in Dubai, where life during much of the year would be next to impossible without air-conditioning, hotel swimming pools are chilled. According to a report published in 2018 by the International Energy Agency, refrigeration in 2016 accounted for about six per cent of the world’s energy consumption, and space cooling accounted for about eight per cent. In the same report, the I.E.A. predicted that worldwide energy use by air-conditioners would triple by 2050, “requiring new electricity capacity the equivalent to the combined electricity capacity of the United States, the E.U. and Japan today.” Energy use by refrigerators is on a similar upward path.
Much of the world’s recent growth in cooling capability has been an adaptive response to global warming. The problem is self-perpetuating, because the electricity that refrigerators and air-conditioners run on is mostly generated by burning fossil fuels. There are other climate impacts
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/how-the-refrigerator-became-an-agent-of-climate-catastrophe
So, it seems we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t!.. 😍🌹
19th century wood houses managed well without cooling. The overarching British colonial system where you find a lot of them was highly rational, inducing such rational measures as cross ventilation and high ceilings. Moreover, wood breathes, unlike the concrete which replaced wood and that de facto requires air conditioning. Maintaining old wood buildings as part of an embedded energy system makes sense on several levels.
https://youtu.be/yaAOMzGFCuU
https://thecovidblog.com/2022/01/17/are-covid-19-injections-the-ethno-bomb-israel-began-developing-in-the-late-1990s/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FI3fRgxUUAAf-WA?format=jpg&name=large
Pfizer’s purpose: Breakthroughs that change patients’ lives.
100% job well done!!!!!!!
by killling tens of thousands and injuring hundreds of thousands, so many LIVES have been CHANGED!!!
1. there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine.
2. there never ever will be.
On January 12, 2022, Dr. Andrew Huff, an Associate Vice President at EcoHealth Alliance, issued a public statement (on Twitter) in which he claimed Peter Daszak, the President of EcoHealth Alliance, told him that he was working for the CIA.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJbyX7UUYAAk6V1?format=jpg&name=large
Question: Covid 1.0 hospitals were ‘overwhelmed’ in the US…
And now we have new records across most states…..https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-01-11-22/h_6181d0c2eebf56ece55df9fd89153b8c
Yet they dont seem to be overwhelmed… they should be collapsing you’d think …. where are the hospital ships and tents and all that now?
Oh – and quite a few nurses have walked due to vax mandates… so they should be imploding by now … no?
norm? mike?
Our local hospitals are reporting 30% of their staff out due to Covid. THe laugher is that they are all vaxxed now. And of course they fired those that would not vax.
Odd that there are no photos of people dying in the hallways of the hospitals… staff shortages and record hospitalizations should mean total disaster
I was in a facility yesterday as a drive home for a patient. It was a ghost town. Lots of empty few few patients. Staffed by polish nurses who could not place a needle for anesthetics correctly, strong accent just of the plane. My impression is vastly understaffed but they hide it by using COVID. Trust us there is a full staff hiding in the back but you may not enter to see them because COVID.
My impression is that quality of care is at a criminal level.
https://screenrant.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/White-Walker-Night-King-and-The-Wall-in-Game-of-Thrones.jpg
Fast Eddy has driven Mike Yeadon into Deep Despair … by convincing him that The Injections are directly related to peak oil … and that this is an extinction agenda…
A nod of the hat to Mike – he initially resists — but then likes Fast’s response and then capitulates
Take note norm… only great men change their minds.
https://palexander.substack.com/p/devastating-2nd-week-report-of-negative/comments?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo2OTY2MDI5OCwicG9zdF9pZCI6NDcxNzAyNjUsIl8iOiJuQWtsTiIsImlhdCI6MTY0MjU2MDE5NSwiZXhwIjoxNjQyNTYzNzk1LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNTc5MzU2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.4XrALdqXmLvVCosTWBgXNfUl5UlXEH_yXttuz6YKV2s#comment-4523109
He indicates that his health is not good and he is living out of a suitcase… Fast would recommend taking a step back and enjoying what little time remains… the fight is futile… and as Fast points out – fighting this is almost certainly not in anyone’s interests.
WOW! Thanks so much for posting this.
Fast Eddy is waiting to see if Mike picks up on that Mexico thing … ad if he might be keen on a rondayvu at a First Class VIP Lounge and do some ultra pure Bolivian blow … https://dejavu.com/showgirls-tijuana/
Fast will arrange for M Fast to take M Yeadon shopping … and Fast will get Mike out of the doldrums…
Need to put the feelers out … at first glance he doesn’t seem the type… perhaps start with a few at a Mexican pub… once he’s juiced up suggest stopping in at another place down the road… ease into the mayhem… once he’s got a girl bouncing on his lap and a few lines into him… he’ll be a changed man… a less troubled man….
FE – north korea isn’t on board – they returned the shots that were donated to them by china. up is down and down is up.
North Korea has zero Covid infections … they don’t need a vaccine .. the rules don’t apply there
FE – not all countries are on board – see north korea returning donated vaccines
It’s not clear what Mike Yeadon capitulated on. Why did you not tell him that your overriding aim is the extinction of the human race, and why do you have a contingency plan, as though you actually want to be at the other end of the collapse, despite saying you don’t?
By the way, Gail has pointed out many times, peak oil won’t lead to a sustained spike in prices so why do you think it will? Given this comment by you, “Covid was foisted on us as cover for the response to peak oil (if we don’t slow the burn oil prices go through the roof and we collapse)”
If you read his final response he accepts that energy is the problem and asks Fast Eddy if there is anything that can be done….
Fast Eddy explains that nothing can be done – and that nothing should be done if this is looked at dispassionately — the party is over… time to die.
There is no further discussion.
Mike just pinged on Linkedin and he’s quite keen on the High Grade Blow and the Mexican VIP room…. his spirits have been lifted and he is ready for A Filth Filled Bucket List.
I’ll tell him to go ahead and Get the Party Started…(GPS) I’ll catch up asap
His final response in that thread was:
So he was agreeing that your idea of frightening people into not getting the vaccine (because of claimed risks) is essential (though, of course, it has failed for the majority of adults in developed nations). He didn’t ask if anything can be done, in his last reply but in his previous reply, he wrote:
So he did ask you if anything can be done, though you didn’t answer that in your first response. You did seem to suggest suicide was something you’d considered but then claimed to have a contingency plan to bug out to South America but didn’t say what you’d do there. You never said to him that you don’t want anything to be done; that you want humans to become extinct as soon as possible.
And I thought israel was the leader…
The Health Ministry started offering the fifth booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines for a specific group of people, the ministry said Friday.
https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/turkey-starts-offering-5th-dose-of-covid-19-booster-shots/news
Congratulations to Turkey! And the CovIDIOTS of Turkey!
Bunch of turkeys.
Basted 5x
Countdown Supermarkets are already taking note of their sibling-stores in Australia, where shelves have been running bare because of supply chain disruptions.
Countdown director of corporate affairs, safety and sustainability Kiri Hannifin said “when the truck drivers are sick and the supply chain members are sick, all the farmers, all the chicken operators are sick then obviously there’s a short supply of product”.
“We need everybody in the supply chain to keep well and be safe from Covid.”
Countdown supermarkets have already been stockpiling what they can in preparation.
But before food arrives, it needs to be grown, processed and distributed across the country – all of which could lead to shortages should an outbreak stand-down large groups of staff at a time.
Get Ready for the inevitable https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/459796/supermarkets-stockpile-and-industries-crisis-plan-ahead-of-omicron-community-outbreak
How does a supermarket stockpile when it has no extra warehouses to put the extra stuff in? I do not expect they will use their own money to build new warehouses to protect the community.
hahahaha… https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-stranded-kiwis-angry-stressed-after-latest-miq-room-release-scrapped/ONR3ILL6HPFPXFVSBDGCA2ZTYE/
Meanwhile hotels are sitting empty in Auckland hahahahaaha
(saves oil though)
Of the three ways Gail mentions, the first one (expansion of resources) has been used by every civilization on Earth. But i submit that, for the other two, complexity and debt, this particular civilization is particularly bad. Others will say that, at a time of declining resources, capitalism in general and neo-liberalism in particular, is the worst possible economic system to have.
do you foresee any timeline for capitalist/neo-liberal economies phasing in nationalization of criticcal essential sectors?
Right now I am focusing on Russia because I am otherwise too busy to think… 1) I only consider buying a Lada, and not a western car, due to the local (USSR-derived) supply chain and 2) yes, I expect further nationalization of the energy sector, because developing the Arctic fields is too important to leave it to the market and sanctions.
I think it’s only a matter of time here in the UK….it looks like consumer energy prices are set to rise and rise through 2022…..”outrage”…”calls” for the govt to cap energy prices….this drives more suppliers out of business….govt must step in to subsidize prices…..only when we are in full on crisis will nationalisation be broached…
….for now, the narrative is quite optimistic….FTSE 100 back above pre-covid levels…..lots of job openings….house prices buoyant…. BoE managed to raise interest rates late last year and the sky didn’t fall…..
in a world of LIMITS, the current, wealth-based market system is the worst possible economic system. Demand = f($) The less money you have, the less demand. If energy (which = total actions and things produced) declines, then economic activity decreases, employment falls (and productivity is forced higher, in order to counter falling sales/prices) and demand declines because fewer people have money in their pockets.
Teacher alleges she was fired for not ‘meowing’ back at student who identifies as a cat
https://thepostmillennial.com/teacher-alleges-fired-not-meowing-student-cat
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/yvette-mimieux-dies-actress-writer-who-starred-in-the-time-machine-had-just-turned-80/ar-AASUHvv?ocid=msedgntp
this is the almost laughhable canned press release:
“… was found dead this morning, a rep for her family confirmed. She had just turned 80 on January 10, and she passed away in her sleep of natural causes.”
hurry hurry, just let the world know:
NATURAL CAUSES.
Vaxxideath 100%
I hope you’re not going to splatter news stories from mainstream media about deaths here, and then imply they are all caused by the vaccines.
Nobody has died from the injections in NZ … right mike
https://youtu.be/VVxmAIKjYM4
Russia seen struggling to keep pace with OPEC+ supply hikes
Russia may be able to deliver only about half of its scheduled increases in crude production over the next six months, joining the ranks of OPEC+ nations that are struggling to ramp up even as fuel demand rebounds from the pandemic.
With crude already trading above $85 a barrel in London, the outlook for Russian output leaves the global market looking even tighter than expected. It risks amplifying the energy-price surge that’s contributing to the highest inflation in decades.
In the booming Asian physical market, Russian premium ESPO crude – a favourite grade among Chinese processors – has already surged to the highest since November amid declining inventories in China, according to traders.
The OPEC+ member is supposed to be adding 100,000 barrels a day of crude to the market each month, but growth ground to a halt in December. Due to a decline in drilling last year, most analysts polled by Bloomberg News expect Russia’s actual monthly increases can go no higher than 60,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2022.
“We have a hard time seeing Russian suppliers maintaining 100,000 barrels-a-day production increases each month for the next six months,” Bank of America Corp. analysts Karen Kostanyan and Ekaterina Smyk told Bloomberg.
https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2022/1/18/russia-seen-struggling-to-keep-pace-with-opec-supp/
Generally, isn’t inflation kind to debtors? Assuming they have a fixed rate locked in.
What’s deadly to debtors is deflation. At that point, they’re stuck paying off a debt that they’ve ostensibly used to purchase something or produce something that is falling in value.
The businessman who takes on debt to make more widgets faces less and less income from the sale of widgets. The homeowner who takes on debt to buy the biggest house he can afford is faced with “being underwater” on the equity on the house — he can’t sell it, without putting more cash in to clear the debt!
Governments tend to be rather tolerant with moderate amounts of inflation, but they are scared to death of deflation.
I think that it is bond holders, stock holders, and asset holders of any kind that who will do poorly as the economy goes downhill. The assets that they thought they owned won’t provide the benefit that they bought them for. If people are living in homes (renting or squatting), owners won’t dare throw them out on the street.
I could be wrong on this, however. The wealthy seem to do well, whenever there isn’t enough to go around.
Squatters would therefore seem to have major power in an “embedded-energy” economic system.
EMBEDDED ENERGY
I’m not aware that anyone has compared the prospects of an embedded energy economy with an explosive energy economy. In an embedded energy economy the only source of energy would be what is already constructed from past explosive energy. Given that there is no realistic future production of explosive energy (OIL, COAL, NATURAL GAS), we’d need to take embedded energy seriously, and not discard one iota of it.
Of course we’ll need fossil fuel energy for the foreseeable future, and the infrastructure for delivering it is a form of embedded energy, but one that can’t be mistaken for BAU. It will be merely a means of managing much more passive forms of embedded energy.
It will be an economic system virtually absent of travel. We therefore need a very radical conservation of fossil fuel energy to communicate online. Cardboard boxes will be a major economic asset as shipping with them will take the place the majority of in-store shopping. Cardboard boxes also provide good insulation for those abandoned buildings now in the service of embedded-energy economics. I don’t know about eUROPE OR COUNTRIES WITH TOO LITTLE FOSSIL ENERGY TO PRODUcE CARDBOARD BOXES. Maybe those will tend to lie in the Tropics where there is less requirement for insulation.
Cars will be used less for transportation than to serve as generators to power the old electricity infrastructure. Like the production of cardboard boxes, inverters for the car-as-generators will need a major source of available fossil energy to manufacture them widely.
Food will be grown in raised, cardboard-lined beds or in ubiquitous hugelkultur piles. Unless it is for purposes of producing natural gas, nothing will go into landfills anymore. Water most certainly be used for industrial agriculture or to water the lawn.
Water most certainly WILL NOT be used for UNIVERSAL industrial agriculture or to water the lawn.
unless i’ve missed something, embedded energy is muscle power.
ie–i use my own and animal muscle power to
a—grow my own food through tilling the land, or gathering from it
b— hunt down and kill something in order to appropriate it’s muscle power into my own
i dont think its possible to think of existing infrastructure as ’embedded energy’ because if the slightest thing goes wrong in an ic engine–it dies on you.
if that part isn’t available, no matter how small, it stays dead
the ic engine runs to close tolerances, which cannot be produced manually
What we are seeing is Inflation followed by massive deflation it’s coming hold onto your hat
Hungary To Place Price Ceiling on Groceries
Price controls almost never achieve their goal, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has decided to utilize them anyway.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán this week announced a plan to place price controls on several common grocery items ahead of a national election and in response to rising inflation.
Starting on February 1, the prices of milk, sugar, flour, sunflower oil, leg of pork, and chicken breast will be rolled back to last year’s October 15 levels. Hungary has endured record inflation across sectors since the end of October.
Gergely Gulyás, the head of the prime minister’s office, announced that the measures are currently slated to last for three months. However, that timetable could be extended if Orbán so chooses.
https://reason.com/2022/01/14/hungary-to-place-price-ceiling-on-groceries/
Fewer beans for your buck: Food price spike forces rethink in Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern European governments are scrambling to stave off anger from voters over skyrocketing food prices, with some politicians advocating measures that critics liken to communist-era policies.
Inflation has sent the costs of pantry staples soaring across Europe and beyond, but the problem is particularly severe in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where wages are generally lower than in the West.
In November, the most recent month for comparable data, the average price for food and non-alcoholic beverages across the EU increased by 2.9 percent on a year-to-year basis, according to statistics agency Eurostat. In many CEE countries, the increase was around twice that rate, or more — 5.4 percent in Hungary, 6.1 percent in Poland, 6.2 percent in Romania, and 6.8 percent in Bulgaria.
https://www.politico.eu/article/food-price-inflation-eastern-europe-poland-romania/
Price Controls and Government Spending Won’t Fix Inflation
The United States last year experienced its highest inflation rate in nearly 40 years. Not surprisingly, the public expects the government to do something to get inflation under control. If policymakers hope to deliver, they’ll have to address inflation’s root causes and not paper over its symptoms.
Last year’s 6.8 percent inflation rate was the highest since 1982. Seventy-two percent of Americans, according to a mid-December CNN poll, say the government is doing too little to reduce it.
Some, such as University of Massachusetts economics professor Isabella Weber, are now proposing government-mandated price controls.
As Robert Schuettinger and Eamonn Butler demonstrated in their 1979 book, Forty Centuries of Wage and Price Controls, price controls have been imposed throughout world history—and unfailingly fail. They’re such a bad idea that left-leaning economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman called Weber’s argument “truly stupid” before apologizing for his rude tone.
https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=13953
Price Controls are always very successful policies!
The problem is … every day energy depletes a little bit more … and you get to the point where adding just a single straw … snaps the back of BAU…. we are real close…
China Bond Rally Gathers Steam as Bets on Further Easing Rise
(Bloomberg) — China’s sovereign yield curve is poised to bull steepen as the nation’s bonds extend an advance on expectations the central bank will continue cutting official rates while its global peers tighten policy.
Investors are positioning for the People’s Bank of China to lower rates further in the next few months after Monday’s decision to slice 10 basis points off its one-year policy loans — the first reduction since April 2020 — and to trim its seven-day reverse repurchase rate.
While the Federal Reserve is shifting its focus to heading off inflation, Chinese authorities are more concerned about propping up growth as they deal with the fallout from a crisis in the property market, weak private consumption and the risk of bigger coronavirus outbreaks. The PBOC is also expected to pump extra liquidity into the banking system before the Spring Festival holiday week starting Jan. 31.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-bond-rally-gathers-steam-as-bets-on-further-easing-rise-1.1709517
We seem to be tracking the business-as-usual scenario laid out in Limits to Growth pretty closely suggesting a lot of ‘things’ are going to follow the Seneca Cliff path in the not-too-distant future.
though looking at all of Gail’s graphs, I see energy supply holding up quite well through these covid-lockdown-vaccine years.
Lebanon and others seem to already be going over the cliff.
the Core likely will have a series of recession years as the cliff steepens in the first world.
then down it goes.
how can IC last more than another decade or two?
Regrettably, that holding up is a figment of your imagination. Two causes: 1) population is still increasing, so fewer joules per person 2) the energy cost of extracting almost everything, from FF to magnesium to rare earths, is increasing, therefore delivering a smaller fraction of the extrcted energy to the still increasing population.
yes within those somewhat flat graphs is the issue of diminishing returns, which are affecting all resource extraction and are especially problematic for energy resources.
and yet these diminishing returns are minimal on an annual basis, though their effects will be multiplying in each future year.
this again could be a situation where the tenses of verbs are more important than perhaps realized.
the world energy supply IS holding up, though sooner or later it WILL not be holding up.
prosperity in the Core IS very real.
You mean a month or two no?
yes only a month or two for NZ surely.
sadly Celine won’t be touring over there:
https://nypost.com/2022/01/16/celine-dion-cancels-north-american-tour-over-health-issue/
“I was really hoping I’d be good to go by now, but I suppose I just have to be more patient and follow the regimen my doctors are prescribing,”
vax injuries can be very difficult for doctors to treat.
and often impossible to cure.
too bad, so sad.
She won’t ever go public with her Vaxxident … because that would be betraying the cause… she still believes the vaxxes are our salvation … and she will not want to discourage the MOREONS from injecting more boosters…
Turkey’s up to 5 now. I think NZ needs to accelerate so we can surpass turkey and take over the top spot
Sri Lanka rations electricity as dollar crisis worsens
Sri Lanka imposed electricity rationing Friday with the main power utility unable to buy fuel oil for its power stations as a result of the island’s worsening dollar crisis.
Oil normally accounts for around nine percent of electricity generation on the island, but a Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) official said the company had run out of dollars to buy it from the state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation.
The CEB was having to rely on its coal- and hydro-powered generating facilities and was applying rotating one-hour power cuts around the island, he said.
He did not say how long the rationing would last but added that the 160-megawatt Sapugaskanda power station and a barge-mounted 60-megawatt generator at a Colombo port had been closed for an indefinite period.
“The power cuts are being imposed because the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation has not supplied us with fuel,” the official said.
Sri Lanka’s acute foreign exchange shortage has already led to rationing of milk powder, sugar, cooking gas and cement.
https://www.easterneye.biz/sri-lanka-rations-electricity-as-dollar-crisis-worsens/
Island nations seem to have more problems than others. An awfully lot of things need to be imported. It is difficult to create cheap electricity for manufacturing exports.
Haha everything’s gotten worse in just a few days!!!
BTW – we ended up finding a chopper to take us on the tour without the vax… we crashed into a rock and FE was the only survivor — HE captured a goat and road him giddyup down the Routeburn Track back to civilization.
Martín Guzmán: ‘IMF risks losing legitimacy if Argentina destabilises’
Economy Minister Martín Guzmán discusses ongoing talks with the International Monetary Fund and warns the lender risks losing credibility if it “pushes” the country “into a destabilising situation.”
Guzmán, in an interview with AFP, said the repayment calendar was “unsustainable” for a country battling a poverty rate of some 40 percent and one of the highest inflation rates in the world at 50 percent.
The Peronist government of centre-left President Alberto Fernández, who refused to accept the last US$13 billion of the IMF’s biggest-ever loan arranged in 2018 under his conservative predecessor Mauricio Macri, is seeking a deal that will reduce Argentina’s fiscal deficit through economic growth, not reduced public spending.
Argentina has a very high trade surplus, which is at the highest levels we have achieved. It was over US$15 billion in 2021.
What is the balance of payments problem facing Argentina in 2022? It is precisely the debt with the IMF. It is the reverse of what naturally happens. It is the debt with the IMF that generates the balance of payments problem. And that is why it is important to be able to refinance it. It is important for the country and also for the IMF.
If the IMF pushes Argentina into a destabilising situation, it will also have less legitimacy in the future when other countries require multilateralism in order to solve their problems together with the international community.
https://batimes.com.ar/news/economy/martin-guzman-imf-risks-losing-legitimacy-if-argentina-destabilises.phtml
At some point, a person would think that an awfully lot of IMF loans would default. The whole system to loans to very poor countries that cannot repay them would come apart.
‘DeFi’ Decentralization Promise Is an Illusion, BIS Chief Says
(Bloomberg) — Advocates of a decentralized future of money based on distributed ledger technology are chasing an illusion, according to Bank of International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens.
Their vision, which is to “democratize finance” by cutting out big banks and other middlemen, is “not what decentralized finance applications are delivering,” he said on Tuesday addressing an event in Frankfurt.
“There is a large gulf between vision and reality,” Carstens argued.
DLT technology, which underpins cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and is being experimented with in large parts of the financial system, in principle allows anyone to be a validator in a shared network. Carstens — who’s long been a skeptic of Bitcoin — countered that “in practice, there is a lot of centralization in decentralized finance.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/defi-decentralization-promise-is-an-illusion-bis-chief-says-1.1709142
I would also hope that the people thinking about the cryptocurrencies would think about the problems that the world is encountering with electricity. When in the world will the electricity for cryptocurrencies come from? How does the system work when there are rolling blackouts? We are going backwards in the technology we can support. Maybe the organizers are planning for more technology than we can really support.
Anyone remember Long Term Capital Management blowing up back in the late 90s? The firm was stuffed with PhDs…a couple of Nobel prize winners….they appeared to be geniuses for a while….it didn’t last….
All the sub-prime mortgage derivative instruments back in the noughties…
…on the way up, it’s easy to feel like a clever clogs….”this time is different!”….
I follow the crypto saga to some extent….one of the memes I see now and again is “Bitcoin is digital energy”…..WTF does this mean?
I agree with the long term outlook, but in the interim I would not be surprised to see new ATHs in BTC….more countries doing an El Salvador in 2022….as the energy predicament bites in more of the non-core…. more and more of these currencies will become worthless….some will turn to BTC as a scarcity asset…to help preserve purchasing power….will work as long as the energy is there….
Bitcoin could go to 0 in second – the Fed only has to issue an edict that does not allow the conversion into real money that can be used to buy stuff…
And these clowns would be no different than children playing Monopoly and one piling up a heap of cash — ya they could buy ‘Park Place’… but so what?
Bitcoin goes to zero if the Fed did that…
But the Fed doesn’t — so the Fed has a use for Bitcoin — it’s another flavour of hopium
Seems like it’s useful in distracting people away from traditional refuges, like precious metals.
And it also fulfills the MEPP.
China’s Property Sector Contraction Worsens in Blow to Economy
(Bloomberg) — China’s property sector shrank at a faster pace in the final three months of last year as the country’s housing slump continues to take its toll on the economy.
Output in the real-estate sector shrank 2.9% in the fourth quarter after a 1.6% contraction in the previous three months, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday in a supplemental report on gross domestic product. That was the first consecutive quarterly decline since 2008.
The construction sector also saw its output decline by 2.1% during the same period. Those two sectors combined were 13.8% of national output in 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations, lower than the 14.5% in 2020.
Despite authorities’ efforts to ease some restrictions on real-estate funding, China’s property market slump persisted in December, with the downturn spanning developers’ sales, investments, land purchasing and financing activities. Property investment in December shrank 14% from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations. For the full year, it grew 4.4%.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-property-sector-contraction-worsens-in-blow-to-economy-1.1708962
China’s property sector is very much tied to its banking system. I am afraid China’s property problem will bring down a big part of its economic system, or will bring a big fracture to the country. I really don’t know what is ahead.
One can be pretty sure, though, that China’s great economic leap forward is over.
Xi Jinping urges West not to ‘slam the brakes’ by hiking interest rates too quickly
Hong Kong (CNN Business)China is urging central banks in the West not to hike interest rates too fast to fight inflation as it goes in the other direction to battle a sharp economic slowdown.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday called on major world economies to spur growth by coordinating their policies as the world continues to pull itself out of the turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
“The global industrial chains and supply chains have been disrupted. Commodity prices continue to rise. Energy supply remains tight. These risks compound one another and heighten the uncertainty about economic recovery,” Xi told attendees of the 2022 World Economic Forum during a speech delivered online.
He warned against the effects of raising interest rates too much too quickly, saying that such measures could threaten global financial stability.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/economy/china-xi-davos-warning-interest-rate-intl-hnk/index.html
China’s Spreading Property Contagion Adds Pressure on Xi to Ease
(Bloomberg) — Financial contagion is roaring back in China’s property industry, putting renewed pressure on Xi Jinping’s government to do more to insulate the nation’s stronger developers.
Monday was the worst day on record for dollar bonds of Country Garden Holdings Co., China’s largest developer by sales. Some of its notes fell to as low as 62 cents, while its shares sank to an almost five-year low. The selloff also spread to stronger issuers like Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. and China Vanke Co. for the first time, as well as China’s bad-debt managers amid concern over their exposure to the property market, traders said.
While panic seemed to ebb on Tuesday, with developer bonds and shares paring some of the previous day’s losses, analysts expect the situation to worsen unless Beijing acts to improve the real estate sector’s access to funding. Authorities may need to relax restrictions on the use of presale proceeds for funding, according to Citigroup Inc. economists, as well as remove concern over a planned nationwide property tax by rolling out a milder levy “as soon as possible.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-spreading-property-contagion-adds-pressure-on-xi-to-ease-1.1708987
China’s Economy Is Slowing, a Worrying Sign for the World
Economic output climbed 4 percent in the last quarter of 2021, slowing from the previous quarter. Growth has faltered as home buyers and consumers become cautious.
BEIJING — Construction and property sales have slumped. Small businesses have shut because of rising costs and weak sales. Debt-laden local governments are cutting the pay of civil servants.
China’s economy slowed markedly in the final months of last year as government measures to limit real estate speculation hurt other sectors as well. Lockdowns and travel restrictions to contain the coronavirus also dented consumer spending. Stringent regulations on everything from internet businesses to after-school tutoring companies have set off a wave of layoffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/business/economy/china-economy.html
China has a major energy problem. I wonder how all of this will work out. Are the shutdowns helping save energy? We import so many goods from China. We don’t realize how dependent the US and Europe are on China.
Australian’s are super dependent on China. They buy most of our metallurgical coal and iron ore, our first and second largest export earners. The Chinese are money laundering huge amounts into our property markets, keeping the property bubble going here. Chinese tourists and students keep our tourism and university sectors buoyant.
When China goes down, Australian’s will be f*cked.
I have been noticing how dependent we are on China for resources & products that used to be made here for many years.
Ever since the 1980’s I have been very dismayed & how impossible it had become to buy an American made radio, TV or any other electronics.
Now it seems darn near everything we buy say’s “MADE IN CHINA” on it, clothing, tools, electronics, books, optics, kitchen wear, etc etc.
I have been reading the labels on the things I buy for many years, I hardly ever see something other than WOMD, made in the USA.
After a web search, I FINALLY found a tape measure that had both imperial & metric measurments & it was only slightly more than those made in CHINA!
Why would you be dismayed? If it was made in America it would cost $300 instead of $30.
Two shots means fully vaccinated. Third short is a booster. Fourth shot? Booster+?
While nuclear has many problems, it’s all we have left that is energy dense & can be adjusted to meet demand however, it’s waste products are lethal & uranium must be MINED using OIL powered machines!
“natural gas supply increases~” The natural gas supply is NOT “increasing” what we are doing is extracting it at a faster rate depleting it faster!
WHY are we allowing this to go on? We have NO replacement for OIL, coal or natural gas, we have been WASTING these limited resources for generations. We even burned off natural gas because it wasn’t PROFITABLE enough to sell or store! Now people are crying for more natural gas or they will freeze next or this winter. How stupid it was of us to use a temporary resource to FEED OUR GROWTH. Now the only road is the one going DOWN.
“A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?”
WHY? PROFITS!!!
As long as they can profit by producing & selling “renewables” AND as long as tax payers money is used to support them, they will continue to be produced.
We must stop supporting “renewables”, their a waste of time, money & dwindling resources.
Most of all, we MUST STOP GROWING!
WASF!!
One issue with nuclear is that I am not sure that we really can make it work all that many more years. Like everything else, it needs parts from around the world. It also needs uranium. Recycling is a possibility, but recycling plants are expensive and have long lead times. The world’s biggest producer is Kazakhstan, 43% of the world’s production, if I remember correctly. Kazakhstan is not necessarily very stable.
Replacement of oil by alternative sources
While oil has many other important uses (lubrication, plastics, roadways, roofing) this section considers only its use as an energy source. The CMO is a powerful means of understanding the difficulty of replacing oil energy by other sources. SRI International chemist Ripudaman Malhotra, working with Crane and colleague Ed Kinderman, used it to describe the looming energy crisis in sobering terms.[13] Malhotra illustrates the problem of producing one CMO energy that we currently derive from oil each year from five different alternative sources. Installing capacity to produce 1 CMO per year requires long and significant development.
Allowing fifty years to develop the requisite capacity, 1 CMO of energy per year could be produced by any one of these developments:
4 Three Gorges Dams,[14] developed each year for 50 years, or
52 nuclear power plants,[15] developed each year for 50 years, or
104 coal-fired power plants,[16] developed each year for 50 years, or
32,850 wind turbines,[17][18] developed each year for 50 years, or
91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panels[19] developed each year for 50 years
The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. The table [10] shows the small contribution from alternative energies in 2006.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil
Without oil products, production of coal, gas, uranium and most metals will fall off a cliff.
Take gold for example….some mining operations are processing 1 tonne of rock to produce 1-2 grams of gold!!!
The taxpayer could hand energy firms huge subsidies to stop them hiking bills for customers when gas costs soar, under plans being looked at by ministers.
The mooted ‘temporary price stabilisation mechanism’ would kick in when wholesale costs go over a set threshold.
Firms would agree not to increase bills for consumers in return for the money – but they could also repay it when prices go below the agreed level.
According to the Financial Times, Rishi Sunak recognises that the proposals could leave the government heavily exposed to prolonged high gas costs.
But the Chancellor and Boris Johnson are increasingly desperate to find a way of easing the pressure on households, with bills on track to rise by another 50 per cent in April and wider inflation spiking.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10414271/Energy-firms-subsidies-gas-prices-soar-stop-hiking-bills.html
Politicians keep coming up with new approaches. Perhaps some of them will work for a while.
I am sure that any funding the UK does for energy costs will be funded by more debt. Adding more debt is likely to affect where what pound floats relative to other currencies. Perhaps the approach can be made to work for a while. The question is always: Can we keep patching our problematic system together? At what point, does international trade go dramatically downhill?
Hmmm… isn’t that pretty much the same thing … no free lunch…
Unless they print money and hand it them… that’s a perpetual motion machine!!!
Soaring Energy Costs to Add Pressure on Indonesia Budget Deficit
Indonesia’s subsidy bill, which may balloon beyond its current seven-year high, is forcing the government to seek a balance between fiscal discipline and rising consumer prices.
State subsidies hit 243.1 trillion rupiah ($17 billion) in 2021, surpassing its budget allocation by 39% and marking the highest since 2014, the last year before President Joko Widodo drastically cut back the financial support. This year, the government is setting aside 207 trillion rupiah for subsidies.
The number could go even higher, according to PT Bank Central Asia chief economist David Sumual, who dubs energy costs the “wild card” for Indonesia’s economy. While global commodity prices may not reach the same heights they saw in late 2021, aggregate demand is strengthening due to the economic recovery, he said.
The subsidies — which cover electricity, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas, among others — have kept prices well under control in Indonesia even as supply-chain bottlenecks and commodity shortages spurred red-hot inflation elsewhere.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/soaring-energy-costs-to-add-pressure-on-indonesia-budget-deficit
Municipal leaders in northwest CT concerned by warnings of potential electric blackouts
ISO-New England first warned of the potential for rolling blackouts due to a potential shortfall of natural gas in December, but the email and warning from Eversource riled municipal leaders in northwest Connecticut who are pondering how to protect their most vulnerable citizens while dealing with surging COVID infections.
“So, you jack the rate for ratepayers in Connecticut and now you’re telling us the grid is unstable and you’re not going to be able to provide power and we’ll have rolling blackouts in the middle of winter with below zero temperatures,” Harwinton First Selectman Michael Criss said in an interview. “What’s going to happen if pipes freeze and elderly people can’t roll out generators?”
Criss said they were told the blackouts could last “10 to 12-hour spans,” during the COG meeting. “That’s a long span in New England weather,” Criss said.
“Remember, if these happen, they will be on a rolling basis, so we’re talking maybe four or eight or ten hours, let’s say, as an example. It’s not like you’re out for days at a time,” Eversource representative Hedy Ayers said during the COG meeting. “You have the ability to bring your heat back up, you have the ability to charge your devices and the like. You’re not dealing with blocked roads like you would be in a storm event. It’s just a different environment.”
“Obviously there were concerns from everybody because when Eversource makes these blanket statements without any background information and the selectmen are all left with these vague, broad-brush emails we’re left trying to explain to our constituents a problem that hasn’t fully been explained,” said New Hartford First Selectman Dan Jerram in an interview.
Jerram said the potential lengths of the blackouts was also vague: “They did start talking about that vaguely, a period of several hours, might be four, six, eight hours and then give people a little time to recover but still it didn’t give the end user the answers they were looking for.”
“There seems to be shortages, inflation, problems all over the place and now we’re being told we don’t have a reliable supply of electricity? Or the potential for a lack of reliability? That’s troubling to people on Main Street,” Jerram said.
https://yankeeinstitute.org/2022/01/18/municipal-leaders-in-northwest-ct-concerned-by-warnings-of-potential-electric-blackouts/
“ISO-New England first warned of the potential for rolling blackouts due to a potential shortfall of natural gas in December…”
so these politicians can be told in plain language that the potential problem is a “shortfall of natural gas” and they just don’t comprehend it.
fortunately December was quite mild, and though January is now giving us what seems to be below average temps, perhaps the supply will be adequate through the winter due to the much lower December demand.
I don’t know how this works in this region, if supply “saved” in December is then available for the rest of the winter.
but so far so good.
The Worst Is Yet To Come For UK Households As Energy Prices Soar
When in December the UK government discussed raising a ceiling on household power utility bills, a warning immediately ensued, stating that such a move would throw millions into energy poverty. Now, the government is mulling over a second ceiling adjustment, and it won’t be downward.
Last month, investment bank Investec forecast that electricity bills for UK households could soar by as much as 56 percent this year after Ofgem, the state energy market regulator, updates the energy price ceiling, the Financial Times reported. Now, the FT is reporting that analysts are warning of a second update, in October, which could bring the price increase even higher.
The report cites calculations from energy consultancy EnAppSys, which shows that the energy price cap that Ofgem updates twice a year could reach 2,000 pounds in April, from 1,277 pounds last year, rising further to up to 2,400 pounds after the October update. One British pound is about $1.36, so with the expected double increase this year, many British households may be paying the equivalent of $3,200 per year for electricity.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Worst-Is-Yet-To-Come-For-UK-Households-As-Energy-Prices-Soar.html
Keep the good news coming!
Another life in ruins… but she ‘desperately want it’ — so screw her … can you hear my Guffaws of laughter rolling across OFW…
Guffaw… what is an odd word… seems Guffaw was a person https://www.quora.com/Where-and-when-did-the-word-guffaw-originate?share=1
Ms. Peterson made clear that she is “not anti-[vaxx]” and that she “desperately” wanted to get the shot. She also believes that the Pfizer mRNA injection would have been safer and perhaps not triggered all the adverse reactions.
https://thecovidblog.com/2022/01/17/whitney-peterson-arizona-woman-with-preexisting-immune-blood-disorders-just-wants-to-live-again-after-post-moderna-myocarditis-vasculitis/
Fossil energy companies are also fighting political battles that will inhibit investment. A couple of resent nominees to important government posts are indicative. Saule Omarova, President Biden’s recently rejected nominee for controller of the currency, stated that “We want the oil and coal companies to go bankrupt”! His current nominee to the Federal Reserve, Sarah Raskin, has called for the Fed to pressure banks to choke off credit to energy companies and to exclude them from any Fed emergency lending facilities. Additionally, energy companies are bellying up to the government trough for a cut of the expected ‘Green Energy’ appropriations. It may be more cost effective to invest in access to government coffers than to hunt for oil reserves. If the global economy does not collapse first, $150 oil will look like a bargain.
Europe’s smelters call for action to combat soaring energy costs
A group of Europe’s leading metal producers has called on the continent’s politicians to deploy a package of measures including state aid and tapping national gas reserves to ease the regional power crisis and avert further smelter shutdowns.
Eurometaux, which represents producers including Glencore Plc, Rio Tinto Group and Norsk Hydro ASA, sent a letter to the European Commission warning that more producers could be forced to cut output or shutter plants entirely without additional support to protect smelters from the surge in power costs.
Aluminum and zinc producers have been hit particularly hard by soaring gas and electricity prices, with smelter cutbacks and closures over the past few months sparking regional shortages and sending product prices sharply higher. About 650,000 tons of aluminum capacity has been curtailed due to the crisis already, which equates to about 30% of the region’s total, the group said in the letter.
While power prices have retreated from last month’s peaks, smelters are still exposed to heavy losses from the spot market in countries like France. Europe’s gas inventories, meanwhile, are way below the levels usual for this time of year, with a lack of supply from Russia creating the risk of further price spikes through the winter.
https://www.mining.com/web/europes-smelters-call-for-action-to-combat-soaring-energy-costs/
Surely they could put of a few thousand hectares of solar panels and fix this problem!
I appreciate your comments very much, they add valuable suggestions to my reflections. Thank you for your work and for sharing.
I’m of the opinion solar and wind power are best suited to homeowners paying cash. Look at it as though its an extension of fossil fuels. Would be interesting that instead of calculating a financial equation, instead calculate how much energy it cost to manufacture a small scale unit and how much energy the unit will produce, what’s the net production?
There is a whole lot of energy required for the rest of the system required for the production of the system, too. It is easy to leave that out.
I think that the only model that really can work is a whole world model, for all resources together, as in the 1972 Limits to Growth study.
A big part of our problem is that we need huge amounts of resources to operate parts of the economy that we don’t usually think about. For example, we have so many people that water desalination is needed in some parts of the world. This uses quite a bit of energy. Maintaining roads requires energy. All of the pollution control equipment requires energy.
There is also a difference in the kind of energy, whether it is of the correct kind that the economy needs, at the precise time. Wind turbines and solar panels that produce electricity at a time when it is unneeded are basically wasting resources. I think that solar panels and wind turbines are an extension of fossil fuels. I don’t think that calculating how much energy it takes directly to produce them compared to the energy they produce gives very much useful information. Without the rest of the system, it is an illusion that the future energy the solar panels produce will really be worth anything at all.
I’m of the opinion that you are missing the … Big Picture
A bit of house cleaning before reading the article:
DEVASTATING 2nd week report of NEGATIVE EFFICACY
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=475
ORGANS OF DEAD VACCINATED PROVES AUTO IMMUNE ATTACK
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=476
Australia and Ontario – 70% in Hospital are Fully Vaxxed
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=471
Can you have too many vaccinations?
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=473
What Have They Done to the Vaxxed????
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=472
Time to Kill Babies!!!
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=470
UK Govt: Vaccines Have Damaged Natural Immune System
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=481
Can someone provide the updates on CovIDIOTS who have injected and wrecked their bodies…
Notice how they’ve tried to blame this on covid hahaha
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fully-vaccinated-canadian-soccer-star-alphonso-davies-sidelined-myocarditis
Nice. Yes, all three of those approaches to sustaining (for a time) economic growth requires increasing energy. Even efficiencies would eventually hit limits and decreasing EROEI requires increasing production.
This could be an interesting year. Though I’ve been thinking that for over a decade!
Right. It is hard to know precisely what will hit this year. All of China’s problems have me worried. The high level of inflation and tendency to raise interest rates leads to another concern.
mike – are you ready for this
Australia reports deadliest day of COVID-19 pandemic as hospitalizations break record
https://globalnews.ca/news/8518832/australia-covid-omicron-deaths/
Been to any pie eating contests yet this year?
Hahahahahahahaha https://palexander.substack.com/p/australia-suffers-deadliest-day-of
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe6efb9ac-61b0-49bf-bdd2-b0888aaab797_3400x2400.png
eddy starts 2022 with his h and a keys stuck
again
norm… congratulations – still alive!!!
Concerned?
Australia reports deadliest day of COVID-19 pandemic as hospitalizations break record
https://globalnews.ca/news/8518832/australia-covid-omicron-deaths/
Releasing a pathogen into a low IQ population produces many bizarre outcomes. Have bought popcorn and watching with fascination what happens when sad nz, a very low IQ and uneducated population, gets hit. Already the mad border MIQ system has shut down rendering nz passports the equivalent of rolls of lavatory paper for those trying to get back in.
One nz woman’s response to all the madness came yesterday when she walked onto railway tracks with her baby as a freight train was coming. RIP and very sad but thousands in sad nz are contemplating that course of action. Destroyed lives, lost businesses, and a corrupt media and government.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/hamilton-railway-station-tragedy-woman-baby-fatally-struck-by-freight-train/F2YICECMUYMAUQNCORMVPJSZFY/
Oh, but wait isn’t this the country people call Godzone? Godzone sh*thole more likely.
Eddy is banging his off topic, nonsense drum again… sigh.
I got bored of the energy talk and immediately had to get things back to on track with the discussion of the evolution of the fake Covid Injection narrative which is 100% driven by the peak oil narrative …
So in fact banging a shoe on a desk about The Injections is all about the energy story.
We need to remain at the cutting edge of the story … and Fast Eddy is the key to driving the new narrative (cuz HE is a hyper Genius (hG)
Would be good if you could just stay ‘on topic’ for once.
Gav
such a statement of the obvious will get you consigned to the outer darkness
but as a compensation, i can invite you participate in the wager that eddy will reach 1: 1 comment parity by the end of february—ie, commenting about himself, to himself
It is difficult for Fast Eddy to imagine the level of stooopidity involved to not be able to connect Covid and the Injections to Peak Energy…..
You don’t think Covid is the response to Peak Energy and the imminent collapse of BAU?
the only topics of consequence are eddytopics
anything else must be shouted down—in caps of course
Good to see you know the rules norm.
All that really matters… is Fast Eddy.
admitting it is good
a step in the right direction
First
Holiday experience; family memebers hired some electric bikes for a short expedition.
We got phone call an hour or two later and nek minit, here we are with two ‘eclectic’ bikes strapped to roof of my 30 year old dirty diesel returning them to home base.
Got some priceless photo’s of the event.
That was a seneca cliff with a vertical drop. Methinks the shape of the downward slope will vary greatly across cultures, countries and continents with population density versus resource availability being easy predictor.
First, Fast, Most and Last!!