2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The damage to children and young people, for a disease that poses them virtually zero threat, has been nothing less than criminal. And obviously it’s abuse.

    Welcoming the removal of face coverings in schools, political commentator Sophie Corcoran breaks down as she recalls her experience of wearing a mask in the classroom.

  2. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Student mocks insane adults:

    “Thank you for teaching students that our own mental health is much less important than making triple vaccinated adults feel safe.”

    “Thank you for teaching us that we should never question authority or think, critically.”

    • JonF says:

      I wonder if the experience of the past 2 years will inspire a reaction from younger folk in the years to come?

      Will it be constructive or nihilistic?

      • JonF says:

        Will the reaction manifest itself in popular culture?

        Here’s the Sex Pistols’ first appearance on live TV back in 1976….the youth giving the finger to the smug old fart presenter…


        “…We fackin spendit….”

      • Halfvard says:

        Maybe it’ll follow the Pareto Principle: 20% constructive / 80% nihilistic

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        the younger generations also will be experiencing a devastating lowering of their prosperity, much lower than most of their grandparents and parents.

        the general direction of their “reaction” will very likely be lower also.

        unless there is a resurgence of religiosity, which perhaps would be a normal human reaction to increasing dire poverty.

        otherwise, your speculation of increased nihilism looks very probable.

        sort of “life sukcks then you die” dialed up to 11.

      • It seems as though ultimately it will have to result in a loosening of respect for those in power, and a loss of belief in what the media is claiming as gospel truth. We have been told that governmental programs can fix all problems; we are beginning to see that this is not really the case.

  3. JesseJames says:

    I find this amusing. A new book “The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020s”. states that we will be booming because of the cloud. The authors think energy will always be there. That the Cloud (BIG DATA) is the new oil.What struck me about the reference to the Roaring 20s was Gails reveal that oil use went up over 100% during the roaring 20s. The authors boast that medical and healthcare advances will be made.
    Help me to understand this….but we have 8B people and we are destroying the planet ecologically. So why do we need healthcare advances?

    • Halfvard says:

      >So why do we need healthcare advances?

      We need healthcare advances because people fear death more than at any time in human history. It’s fairly unprecedented to be jabbing children to protect the elderly, the sick, and those who neglect their health by becoming obese &c. Even if it were a tested vaccine that is actually safe and effective, any healthy society would see that as morally sick and twisted.

      A healthy and functional society would be following this aphorism:
      “These trees which he plants, and under whose shade he shall never sit, he loves them for themselves, and for the sake of his children and his children’s children, who are to sit beneath the shadow of their spreading boughs.”

      The path that current society follows is more akin to the sick and elderly chopping down fully grown fruit trees to starve their children and their children’s children.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Dunno. In our town, one of the most freaked-out covid Karens is the sister of a guy running a prominent anti-population-growth think-tank. It’s just virtue/status signalling.

    • drb says:

      Interacting with a Whatsapp group made of my high school classmates, I get occasionally exposed to this pseudo-reality. And a guy who got an A+ in physics is usually the promoter. Yes, there will be an economic boom where I give you a psychotherapy session, you sell some blockchain to a third party, and he will give me a massage. And all three will prosper.

    • rufustiresias999 says:

      I graduated an IT tech university in 1990 and in that time experts already said «information is the new oil … information will be more valuable, more strategic than oil … blah blah blah».
      I thought «but wait, oil is absolutly vital for economy, oil is everywhere. By the way, how much oil do we have ? Oceans, I guess, since no one cares».
      Then I forgot it, lived my life, got married, got kids.
      Then in 2005 I saw an «alternative» newspaper page posted on the windows of a bookshop : «Peak oil, the end of growth …»

  4. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Last Days of the Covidian Cult

    Totalitarian movements and death cults do not typically go down gracefully. They usually go down in a gratuitous orgy of wanton, nihilistic violence as the cult or movement desperately attempts to maintain its hold over its wavering members and defend itself from encroaching reality. And that is where we are at the moment…or where we are going to be very shortly.

    Cities, states, and countries around the world are pushing ahead with implementing the New Normal biosecurity society, despite the fact that there is no longer any plausible justification for it. Austria is going ahead with forced “vaccination.” Germany ispreparing to do the same. France is rolling out a national segregation system to punish “the Unvaccinated.” Greece is fining “unvaccinated” pensioners. Australia is operating “quarantine camps.”

    Scotland. Italy. Spain. The Netherlands. New York City. San Francisco. Toronto. The list goes on, and on, and on.

    I don’t know what is going to happen. I’m not an oracle. I’m just a satirist. But we are getting dangerously close to the point where GloboCap will need to go full-blown fascist if they want to finish what they started.

    If that happens, things are going to get very ugly.

    I know, things are already ugly, but I’m talking a whole different kind of ugly. Think Jonestown, or Hitler’s final days in the bunker, or the last few months of the Manson Family.

    That is what happens to totalitarian movements and death cults once the spell is broken and their official narratives fall apart. When they go down, they try to take the whole world with them.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      as Chris Martenson has recently said “The narrative is broken”.

      the global vaccine program is a total failure.

      perhaps it is the cognitive dissonance of the jabbed that is preventing them from admitting it is true.

      it seems the jabbed choose to ignore the mountains of evidence about this total failure, or simply don’t comment about any of the numerous posts here showing the SCIENCE behind the NEGATIVE efficacy of the vaccines.

      I suppose if I was jabbed, I might want to protect my mental state by remaining in denial that the jab leaves a person MORE susceptible to omicron.

      and MORE susceptible to the next dominant variant(s) coming later this year and in 2023.

      or more plainly, maybe the jabbed don’t want to be reminded that:

      1. there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine.

      2. there never ever will be.

      • Halfvard says:

        I find it hard to imagine they’re just going to move on from the virus narrative. I think we’re all in the dark on what to expect, but the following is my best guess:

        They’ll ease lockdowns and mask requirements, then people will be less scared because their Masters told them they don’t need to be afraid. Then we’ll get the next new variant, either via Marek-style evolutionary pressure or simply the next one cooked up in a lab somewhere (which vector is really immaterial).

        Then we get people even more scared, even more Mass Formation Psychosis, and even stronger vaccine mandate pushes with more of the public’s will eroded by pressure and fear and anxiety.

        There will be new injections with some new version of the spike protein (presumably more cytotoxic) that will be pushed harder than ever, and the number of people resisting will erode a bit.

        The new wave of pandemic will be blamed on the “evil and selfish antivaxxers” while data will continue to show that the unvaxxed have lower infection rates.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The narrative is alive and well… I am still reading MSM stories that tell me Omi is mild…

        Odd considering when I type in Record Covid Deaths into duckgo… I get results from quite a few countries including the US Canada Australia… indicating they are smashing infection hospital and death records…

        mild? hmmm…

        1+1=12 today…

      • “”The narrative is broken” is a good way of putting the problem.”

  5. Michael Le Merchant says:

    5 Protesters Arrested and Child Walked Out of NYC Museum by Police

  6. Michael Le Merchant says:

    US must prepare for war with Russia, ex-Pentagon official claims

    Security adviser alleges conflict is likely to break out over tensions surrounding Ukraine

    The US must ready itself for a war with Russia, a former Defense Department official has warned, saying that Washington could be obliged to step in militarily if Moscow decides to mount an invasion of Ukraine in the near future.

    Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia from 2012-15, published an op-ed in Defense One on Tuesday in which she claimed that an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine is “more likely than not.” The former Obama administration official insisted that diplomatic talks between Moscow and Washington, taking place this week, are likely to fail, and that the US should already be getting ready for war with Russia.

    In an echo of the words former President George W. Bush, used to describe the nations invading Iraq in 2003, she called for the US to marshal “an international coalition of the willing” to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin “and, if necessary, prepare for war.”

  7. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Germany reveals when it will run out of gas

    Natural gas storage facilities in Germany are half-empty, economy ministry says

    Natural gas reserves in Germany, which has one of the highest underground gas storage capacities in Europe, have fallen to historically low levels compared with previous years.

    “According to the consolidated register of gas storage facilities of the European association Gas Infrastructure Europe, Germany’s gas storage facilities are 50.6% full (as of January 11, 2022),” the German Ministry of Economy said in response to a deputy’s request as quoted by RIA. “This corresponds to a theoretical working gas availability of 17.7 days,” it added.

    This comes as Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Monday it has not booked any capacity to pump gas to Europe through the Yamal pipeline next month. The Yamal-Europe pipeline, which usually delivers Russian gas west into Europe, continued to send it eastward from Germany to Poland for a 28th successive day on Monday, data from German network operator Gascade showed.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘‘I’m just worried for so many small businesses out there, in the southwest of the South Island, and they’ve all put monkeys on their houses to stay afloat, and if I’m right and it does go for another six months like this, I can just see wholesale carnage.’’

      Roses’ only hope is when Omicron arrives, with Kiwis being triple-vaxxed and getting some herd immunity, whether the Aussie border can then reopen.


      I guess he’s unaware that the 90%+ vaxxed Aussies have record infections – record hospitalizations – record deaths….

      See a MOREON can even manage a hotel.. a circus MOREON

      • Wet My Beak says:

        kiwis about to pay for their stupidity. Vaccinated filth must perish and make way for pure bloods to repopulate the land. So it is written and so shall it be.

    • How will Europe make it through the winter is a bit question in my mind. Freezing in the dark is not a good option. Closing manufacturing will come first.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That’s why we are unleashing the virus on highly injected populations — we need Devil Covid to arrive in the next couple of months to finish off the CEP … otherwise….

        How about an article detailing what will happen if the CEP fails — and the energy story tips over — and 8B are left staggering around in the dark … without food..

        I suppose The Road already did that …

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Everything GVB has predicted (and Montagnier) has come true.

        I am still waiting on norm to explain why Australia is a disaster — something is causing these mutations… what could it be? Does anyone every recall a flu sticking around for years… and mutating after 6 months or so?

        Mass Vaccination During a Pandemic will end in a Catastrophe.

  8. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Modi calls world to arms against crypto

    Indian leader compares threat of cryptocurrencies to inflation and climate change

    India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said all nations should unite in tackling the threats posed by cryptocurrencies, speaking virtually at the 2022 World Economic Forum’s annual conference in Davos, Switzerland.

    “Cryptocurrency is an example of the kind of challenges we are facing as a global family with a changing global order. To fight this, every nation, every global agency needs to have collective and synchronized action,” Modi said in his address.

    Modi compared crypto to major economic challenges like supply-chain disruptions, inflation, and climate change, stressing that none of them can be dealt with properly by one country at a time.

    • Interesting! The article says:

      “The kind of technology cryptocurrency is associated with makes decisions taken by one country inadequate to meet the challenges posed by cryptocurrency. We have to have common thinking,” Modi urged. India’s leader also noted that in order to deal with crypto, multinational economic organizations and institutions tasked with regulating the economy need to evolve.

      It is, in effect, a different kind of money printing operation. This, by itself, makes it a problem.

      The way it is done now it uses quite a bit of electricity. My impressions is that the electricity used today is mostly “stranded” electricity – electricity that is produced in locations that do not have enough transmission to get to populated areas, or electricity produced at the wrong time of year using wind, solar, or even hydroelectric. Thus, the sale of bitcoins helps prop up the electricity system.

      The sale of bitcoins also seems to prop up illegal activities. An early use seemed to be to try to evade Chinese controls on moving investments (such as real estate) out of the country. People think that there is a kind of anonymous quality to bitcoins, but I am not sure this is really true.

      If governments get into the business of creating bitcoins, I expect there will be no electricity use behind them. They can be unlimited in value. This is what makes them attractive to countries. It is hard to see why one country would accept the bitcoin currency of another country, however. This may be the way international trade eventually falls apart.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      BC owners might hedge and cash out half their winnings … but that won’t do them much good… cuz that’s going to ZERO soon too

  9. Michael Le Merchant says:

    US desperation is really getting funny at this point

    • Student says:

      Yes, because Navalny is actually not considered as important by Putin opposers themselves.
      It is a superficial approach.
      It is a pity for all of us that it is happening.

  10. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Daily blackouts in Myanmar disrupt livelihoods of rural, urban dwellers

    The outages come at irregular times, forcing residents to buy costly generators to make ends meet.

    Daily power outages across Myanmar have had a devastating effect on business owners as well as ordinary citizens in recent months.

    Since October, residents of nearly every township have endured power shortages of one form or another, including in Myanmar’s major urban centers, and sources told RFA’s Myanmar Service that the outages occur at random.

    Some observers question whether the junta is using the blackout to punish its opponents, but the country’s electric ministry said high gas prices and damage to the nation’s network of power lines are to blame.

    Residents say the one thing they know is that blackouts have become a much more common occurrence and have been forced them to invest in costly alternatives such as generators to meet their daily power needs.

    A restaurant owner in Ayeyarwady region’s Myaungmya township said that businesses had suffered because of the blackouts.

    “We currently endure power outages in Myaungmya day and night, every day,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

    “It happens between seven and 12 times a day on average, so all businesses that rely on electricity are having a hard time. People with generators can carry on working but those without them just have to wait for the power to come back.”

    The restaurant owner added that prices for basic foodstuffs that require cold storage have skyrocketed because of the extra costs to use generators.

    The owner of a grocery store in Ayeyarwady’s Nyaungdon township said he had to buy a generator to keep his business operating.

    “There’s never a day that passes without a power outage. We don’t know whether the power cuts are scheduled for each ward or not,” he said.

    “It can happen anytime of the day, and we never know what time it will come back on, so people who can afford it have to buy generators to run things like welding tools, ice-making machines and glass cutters.”

    The grocer, who also declined to be named, said the price of power generators, which used to be around 300,000 kyats (U.S. $170) each, had recently risen to more than 500,000 kyats (U.S. $280) because of the high demand.

    • I am afraid that this intermittent electricity is the only kind of electricity that can possibly be available with renewables. Every time a cloud goes over, elevators and computers stop. Heating and cooling stops. Manufacturing processes stop. Ventilation systems operated by electricity stop. It doesn’t work very well.

      Operating backup generators requires petroleum products. These will be available in limited supply.

  11. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Georgian Citizens Forced to Stop Crypto Mining amidst Ongoing Energy Crisis

    A holy oath was taken to try to ensure the region’s power grid would work at its most efficient level, as crypto miners are blamed for drawing off too much juice.

    Residents of Svaneti, Georgia, have reportedly been made to pledge a holy oath they will not mine cryptocurrency in order to deal with energy shortages blamed on Bitcoin mining.

    The economy of the northwest Svaneti region of Georgia depends on tourism spending, which rose every year from 2000 to 2019 according to Macrotrends. As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, however, tourism plummeted in 2020 and has only recently begun to return to pre-Covid levels of growth.

    To make do, hundreds of residents turned to mining crypto which has been blamed for severely disrupting the electrical supply.

    A video cited by local media outlet Sputnik Georgia show miners crowding a church on Dec. 30 2021 to pledge a holy oath to St. George that they would not mine cryptocurrency. Such pledges are traditionally seen as unbreakable bonds.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It would be amusing if just prior to total collapse — they Fed and their minions (who created Crypto)…. crashed the delusion to 0.

      Hahahaha… can you imagine!

  12. Fast Eddy says:


    Covid 19: Omicron cases in Auckland, Palmerston North; NZ to move to red in outbreak, Jacinda Ardern rules out lockdowns


    And so it begins (and ends hahaha)

    mike!!! get those pies in your fat mouth asap … cuz it’s frozen ones going forward

    • Wet My Beak says:

      I’m picking nz suicide rates remain vastly ahead of covid death rates.

    • and the connection between those points is?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The connection is that if you look at Australia and their utter disaster despite 90%+ jabbed…

        NZ is about to get rammed hard… which is going to be very enjoyable…

        We have a guest from Auckland at our cottage – I try to avoid guests as much as possible because I know that it’s 99.999999999999999% they are a MOREON and/or Triple Jabbed CovIDIOT — but the husband shouted over to me as I was burning some coal for fun out back…

        The discussion went to the imminent Omicron story ….without admitting I was not jabbed… I was able to get a nice deep jab into his back.. mentioning how Australia is like NZ – massive injection rate… yet record all things Covid … then followed with funny how we were told if we all got jabbed this could not happen — it actually seems as if the jab might be making everything worse… cuz it’s definitely much worse in highly jabbed countries…

        I know he is jabbed cuz he said he went t some restaurants…

        That Zombie Look came across his face when I said that… you know that look

  13. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Chinese Homebuilders Soar As Beijing Prompts Prisoner’s Dilemma in Rescue Plan

    Just as we predicted last week, bonds and stocks of China’s beleaguered homebuilders surged Wednesday on reports that regulators are considering lifting restrictions on the companies’ access to cash from pre-sold properties tied up in escrow accounts. If implemented successfully, it could ease developers’ cash crunch.

    But, as Bloomberg Markets Live analyst Ye Xie writes, it won’t be all smooth sailing, and what needs to be addressed is the “prisoner’s dilemma” confronted by local governments. Those who were first to ease their grip on the local escrow accounts may face the risk that developers divert cash away and leave local projects unfinished. “Such concern may limit the incentives for local regulators to carry out the order from Beijing”, according to Xie.

    Bloomberg reported that releasing funds from the escrow accounts is part of a policy package regulators are contemplating to prevent the real-estate crisis from worsening. Reuters first reported the news, spurring a rally in struggling developers. Dollar bonds of Sunac China jumped 50% Wednesday.

  14. CTG says:

    UK set to remove all restrictions


    Hey FE, what happened? I read one commenter said that if this is true and it spreads worldwide, then the boom will cause an immediate crunch in supply and inflation is going to sky rocket.

    • Rodster says:

      Governments are beginning to realize The Plebs have figured out this was a mfg hoax by Tony Fauci. Now they are getting a taste of the backlash from the Plebs around the world and it’s turning violent in some places..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I still do not know of a single person who has changed their mind on Covid.

        Watch what happens when they let it rip … and the at risk start dying like flies…

        People seem to think politicians tell the truth and that MSM is not a propaganda machine…

        Here in NZ — we were told a few months ago — get two jabs and you can travel the world then quarantine at home on return…. I recall at the time saying to a few MOREONS — why does that start in Feb — why can’t anyone with the jabs home quarantine now…. and suggesting that between then and Feb Ardern would change her mind…

        Alas they MOREONS jabbed cuz they believed Ardern … they believed the MSM…. and now many of them have wrecked bodies… and not only can they NOT home quarantine … it has become almost impossible to return to NZ…

        Because the government is cancelling the MIQ hotel lotteries.

        People are not coming to their senses…the cult remains strong… and the Elders are not ending Covid… they are not terminating the CEP…

        The economic and energy situation is much worse than when they initiated the CEP… they are committed.

        The train remains on the track … and it is speeding up … the rock cut is dead ahead now.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The beginning of the end …

      • Student says:

        My impression is that we are about to enter a new phase, where something bigger will become the new narrative.
        Therefore I expect something like a war in one of the various warm fronts or something different too (as we have seen ‘they’ are able to surprise us).
        My impression is that it is becoming more and more difficult to go on imposing everywhere restrictions (including in China) when these restrictions seem to all people not necessary any more.
        So a new justification will be used to cover financial and enery problem.

        • You may be right. After a while, the current story “runs itself out.”

          • Fast Eddy says:

            A new even more deadly variant will jump start things.

            Still wondering why the hospitals are not overwhelmed in Aussie Canada US and other high vaxx places with record covid illnesses…

            Should be even worse than a year ago because lots of nurses and docs walked due to mandates

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Went to Mitre 10 and Bunnings to buy seedlings for winter crops today — very little selection …

    The staff said ‘it’s due to covid’…. I am struggling to understand how Covid is involved.. given we have not had much in the way of covid on the south island for ages.

    • Rodster says:

      Supply chain, disruptions?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The seedlings are grown in NZ… other than Auckland we’ve not had much in the way of lockdowns for quite some time… unaware of domestic supply chain disruptions

    • Lidia17 says:

      Probably down to increased demand from those seeing the writing on the wall (well, maybe not the last chapter). If you’ve got no job, you might as well try to raise a few carrots,

  16. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Drugged & Vaxxed Against Will: Hospital Holds 33 Year Old Paramedic Hostage

    • Gav says:

      Could you please stay ‘on topic’. Very annoying having to scroll through material that is only marginally related at best.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Michael – can you please post MORE of these Vaxxident stories… if you could get more involving children that would be even better… I really enjoy the parts where the parents wail – but we didn’t know!!!

        Hahhaaha… those are moments to cherish …

        And gav — if you continue along this path … the Fast Eddy’s pack of wild dogs will be unleashed on you….

        If you want to discuss ‘the topic’ then you discuss it… do not attempt to try to force the Gods of OFW to toe your line… WE call the shots — WE decide on what is relevant. If you don’t like it … then you’ll want to find another home — cuz this is the second time Fast Eddy has had to set you straight.


        • Michael Le Merchant says:

          The appeal of Luc Montagnier: ‘Let’s stop mass vaccination immediately’

          It was perhaps the most important Saturday of demonstrations since the protests began throughout Europe. During a huge event organized by the political opposition in Italy, the squares in Rome and Milan were filled to maximum capacity.

          An important event organized by Per l’Italia with Paragone-Italexit took place from 3 to 6 pm in Milan in Piazza XXV Aprile: The demo for the defense of constitutional rights and against the management of the government’s health policy and Green Pass. There were several guests who attended the protest, but the most awaited guest was undoubtedly the Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier.

          Below is the transcript of Luc Montagnier’s speech in Milan:

          • For those who have forgotten:
            “Luc Antoine Montagnier led the team that identified the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and shared half the 2008 Nobel Prize with his colleague Françoise Barré-Sinoussi.”

            Some of the things he says in the translated speech include the following:

            “Contrary to what was said at the beginning, these vaccines offer no protection, and this is emerging slowly. This is scientifically recognized by all today.”

            “Instead of protecting as was promised, it can instead promote other infections. The protein that was used in vaccines for this virus is actually toxic, it is a poison. . . It is an absolute crime to give these vaccines to children today.”

            “It can also cause very serious nerve diseases in the brain.”

            “Many countries have forgotten about treatments, there is not only the vaccine, there are drugs that have not been used and that work very well, such as antibiotics.”

            “It is up to you, especially the unvaccinated who one day will be able to save humanity. Only the unvaccinated will be able to save the vaccinated. “

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The vaccines are multi tasking – they breed new variants… damage the body …. and wreck your immune system… the ideal extinction tool!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I see ZERO signals that the injections are stopping anywhere. ZERO.

            If they intended to end the ‘mistake’… they could easily say ‘the virus has mutated to a benign illness… so we have no need for more boosters’

            And 8B would let out a tremendous sigh of relief… and this would be over.

            There would be no recriminations … no law suits … no heads on stakes… because when all is well that ends well… you have a giant global celebration…. and all the leaders that were criticized… would suddenly be feted .. like war heros.

            Not happening. The PR Machine is running hot pushing boosters … the Israelis are trialling the jabs on babies …

            And let’s not forget the fundamental problem —- BAU was done in 2019… we would have never made it through 2020

            Is that magically going to change if Covid was to magically go away?

        • only one barstool in here, it is unique

          it is moulded to the shape of a unique backside

          it has a hole in the centre to allow exchange of ideas

  17. Very Far Frank says:

    When my Dad suggests I invest a portion of my earnings in a ‘safe investments’, I show him this: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/700-year-decline-of-interest-rates/

    The near future has no safe investments, other than perhaps bodybags.

    • Thanks for the link to the interesting chart. I think the earlier chart I saw came from Bank of England research, as well.

    • Lossiemouth says:

      But not sure rates are the same before 1700-1800. Real wealth rots or rusts. It does not naturally grow in value but has costs. Older interest rates were for speculation. They needed the jubilees .

  18. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Truth About Vaccine-induced Myocarditis

    “I felt so pressured to take the vaccine. I wanted to live a normal life and be able to travel where I want to. And now I’m basically unable to do anything without fearing risking my heart condition … my life is ruined for at least the next few months.”

    “The shots are supposed to be injected into the shoulder muscle, also known as the deltoid muscle. If the injection accidentally reaches a vein, it could lead to delivery of some of the vaccine to the heart through blood vessels.”

    “That myocarditis appears to happen more among younger males after vaccination than in other age and sex groups suggests a link to the hormone testosterone, which is usually at high levels in younger males, according to researchers. Testosterone may heighten an inflammatory immune response, Dr. Bozkurt said, leading to myocarditis in some male adolescents and young men.”

    • Very Far Frank says:

      Thinning the herd of high-T troublemakers before the trouble really gets going?

      • Halfvard says:

        It’s really hard to imagine a biological agent that could be better designed to make the masses weak, dumb, sick, and pliable. This effect is obviously magnified with the Mass Formation psychosis via the fear propaganda and the immense pressure to “just take the jab”.

        I’m sure that if the injection goes into the circulatory system directly the effects are more intense and come on more quickly, but it’s well established that even a proper injection into the deltoid results in spike protein cleaved off of cell surfaces and entering the circulatory system and being distributed systemically.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      That’s what happens when you hire pizza delivery boys and give them 10 minutes of training and get them to mass inject people in a parking lot hahahaha

  19. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Oil price surge will really start to bite at >$100 – this would be 50% above trend and every time we got there, a recession followed.

  20. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russian delegation declares start of ‘countdown’ in wait for adoption of Russian proposals

    “There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security,” the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control Konstantin Gavrilov said

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    And here we have more gaslighting … as if they would not have known this before they even considered 5G… if it is even actually an issue


    • But Biden administration approved 5G proposal, back in March 2020, after a major study.

      • MonkeyBusiness says:

        Hm, 2020? Trump was still President back then no? Perhaps you meant 2021. Anyway, the study was probably done by the big telecom companies. After all this is the United Scammers and Scums of America.

        • I was trying to remember a WSJ opinion article.

          How to Mess Up a 5G Rollout
          We’re from the FAA and we’re here to blame you for our mistakes.

          At issue is the C-band spectrum that carriers plan to use to blanket metro areas with 5G. Carriers paid the U.S. government $80 billion for this valuable spectrum, but the Federal Aviation Administration now won’t let them use it. The agency says the signals could potentially interfere with plane altimeters that measure the distance to the ground.

          The Federal Communications Commission reviewed these concerns during notice-and-comment on its plan to repurpose C-band from satellite operators. In March 2020, it approved a 258-page decision that included a safe buffer between the bands occupied by altimeters and 5G—larger than many other countries require.

          Yet some 20 months later, the FAA demanded to relitigate the FCC decision and took airlines and carriers hostage.

          I was wrong about the Biden part. I got the date right.

  22. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The media asked NBA star Kyrie Irving about his vaccination status 3 times in his latest interview.

    Each time he explained why he will not take the COVID vaccine, but it was never enough. The media is trying to guilt Irving into taking the vaccine and it isn’t working.

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    A Nomura Document May Shed Light on the Repo Blowup and Fed Bailout of the Gang of Six in 2019

    There are numerous reasons that members of Congress, bank regulators, and mainstream media don’t want to talk about the repo blowup in 2019 and the massive Fed bailout that followed. Economist Michael Hudson previously explained how the Fed lacked authority to bail out a handful of trading houses on Wall Street under the dictates of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. Dodd-Frank restricted the Fed to using its emergency lending powers to rescue a “broad base” of the U.S. financial system.

    As we detailed on Monday, there was no “broad base” of the U.S. financial system being bailed out by the Fed in the last quarter of 2019: 62 percent of a cumulative $19.87 trillion in rolled-over repo loans went to just six trading houses: Nomura Securities International ($3.7 trillion); J.P. Morgan Securities ($2.59 trillion); Goldman Sachs ($1.67 trillion); Barclays Capital ($1.48 trillion); Citigroup Global Markets ($1.43 trillion); and Deutsche Bank Securities ($1.39 trillion).

    Notice that three of the firms listed above are affiliates of foreign banks (Nomura, Japan; Barclays, UK; Deutsche Bank, Germany.) Now imagine the embarrassment to the Fed if it was forced to admit that it had to secretly bail out the affiliates of foreign banks for the second time in 11 years because the derivatives of U.S. banks were still not adequately regulated, after derivatives had played a central role in the worst financial crash in 2008 since the Great Depression.

    • This is a link to a related earlier article:


      On September 16, 2019, exactly one day before the Federal Reserve would embark on its first emergency repo loan operations since the financial crisis of 2008, $2.7 billion in credit default swaps (CDS) on a single name blew up. The dealers in those credit default swaps were the very same trading houses on Wall Street that sought, and received, tens of billions of dollars in repo loans from the Fed in an operation that grew to a cumulative $11.23 trillion before its conclusion on July 2, 2020. (In just the last quarter of 2019, the Fed pumped a cumulative $4.5 trillion in repo loans into Wall Street’s trading houses, according to the transaction data it released on December 30 of last year. That was before even one case of COVID-19 had been reported in the U.S.)

      On September 16, 2019 the U.K. tour operator, Thomas Cook, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York – Wall Street’s stomping ground.


      While Thomas Cook may have been the spark that ignited the inferno in the repo market, there were plenty of other problems contributing to a general distrust of each other among global trading houses.

      According to a chart published by Bloomberg News on September 24, 2019, job cuts planned by global banks at that point tallied up to 58,200. Shortly thereafter, the Financial Times reported another 10,000 job cuts at HSBC. . .

      The share price of the parent of Nomura Securities International, Nomura Holdings, had also been slumping in the first three-quarters of 2019, reaching $3.25 at the end of August. Then, on November 8, 2019 Nomura and Deutsche Bank, along with numerous employees, were convicted in a trial in Italy involving helping the Tuscan bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, commit fraud in derivatives deals to help it hide losses.

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Family TV show in Quebec called “La semaine des 4 Julie” asked children if they are in favour of mandatory vaccination.

    The children say the unvaccinated should have everything “cut” from them until they submit.

    The show aired on January 18, 2022.

    • Ed says:

      Piaget (1932) suggested two main types of moral thinking:

      Heteronomous morality (moral realism)

      Autonomous morality (moral relativism)


    • Quebec has oil problems! Hide the oil problems with vaccine mandates.


      As of Dec. 31, oil-powered heating is banned in all new construction projects across Quebec, part of the province’s push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

      In two years, Quebec will go a step further by making it illegal to replace existing oil furnaces with any sort of heating system powered by fossil fuels after Dec. 31, 2023.


      <Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles – Quebec

      Energy Production
      Crude Oil

      Quebec does not have any commercial crude oil production.
      Refined Petroleum Products (RPPs)

      Two large refineries currently operate in Quebec with a combined capacity of 372 thousand barrels per day (Mb/d): Montreal Refinery (Suncor) in Montreal and Jean Gaulin Refinery (Valero) in Lévis, near Quebec City. Montreal Refinery has a capacity of 137 Mb/d and Jean Gaulin Refinery has a capacity of 235 Mb/d.

      Supply for Quebec’s refineries prior to 2013 was a mix of crude oil from eastern Canada and offshore imports from Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. After 2013, use of crude oil from western Canada and the United States (U.S.) began increasing because of higher crude-by-rail deliveries, changes to pipeline infrastructure (Enbridge’s Line 9B reversal in 2015), and higher production in the U.S.

      Natural Gas/Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

      There is no natural gas production or field production of NGLs in Quebec.

      • D. Stevens says:

        The Quebec approach to dealing with covid makes more sense after being made aware of their dire energy situation or maybe just a coincidence.

  25. Pierre says:

    nostraightpath60 says: VERY VERY GOOD VIDEO out of Canadian anti-vax group https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/ showing how Pfizer’s 6 mos report to FDA data shows how inadequate/rigged/poorly designed clinical trials were and how “effectiveness” misrepresented. Talks about how totally worthless & underpowered trials on children & young adults were such that almost impossible to detect significant adverse event – yet it did & that it was/is ignored.

    This video is available on rumble.


    A 50 MB version of this video (same quality as the 500+ MB video from rumble) can be found here (1920×1080):


    A 25 MB email sized version can be found here (960×540):


    Many other interesting covid videos can also be found at:


  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Bill Gates advocates for aggressive policies and carbon taxes to drive demand for “clean products” at Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum.

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    new data on vaccine efficacy from scotland and more evidence on bayesian datacrime

    • Oddys says:

      This is spot-on! Read and digest! The term “datacrime” is suitable for this kind of math!

      I predict a severe sh*tstorm in the coming weeks.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        1. this is omicron, the OAS/vaccine evading variant showing up and taking over. as it does, vaccine efficacy drops like a rock because you are antigenically imprinted for the wrong spike proteins. what had been a help becomes actual harm because a bad response is worse for you than making one up on the fly and omicron is the optimized output of selection by leaky vaccine for vaccine evasion and superspread. we’re now into OAS territory, just as certain gatos told you we would be…

        Meanwhile… the UK is planning to Let er Rip… anyone care to guess what will happen?

        I am thinking … lots of people in the ICUs… lots of people in Coffins…

        And millions of Mutant Factories will start working on the next version of Covid …

        I dunno about this ‘Covid is over’ meme…. I’m thinking … we’re heading into the acute phase

        Hey norm … this could mean the end of those horrifying heating bills!


    • Halfvard says:

      This article was one of the best I’ve read in a while on the state of things with the C*VID. He addresses current data, how that data is cooked, and regulatory capture all in a concise post.

  28. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russia vows to stop U.S. ‘from taking over Ukraine’

    Two rounds of negotiations held by American, NATO and Russian officials in Geneva and Brussels did not help to alleviate the concerns of the Russian authorities regarding the NATO bloc.

    “The North Atlantic Alliance is preparing an information background for deployment of its troops to Ukraine, and this poses a security threat to both Russia and European countries,” said the Chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin.

    “NATO seeks to take over Ukraine,” he said, adding that Moscow could not allow it.

    “We must do everything to preserve peace. And this issue is precisely the question of preserving peace. Because we cannot allow NATO to deploy its troops to the territory of Ukraine. This is a question of the security of our citizens, a question of the security of citizens of European states,” Interfax quoted Volodin as saying.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Only UK Tories are really up for an off with Russia, and USA. They have been showing WWII footage on the BBC TV news this evening, purportedly about an incident with Boris in parliament. The state media has been projecting an image of the UK ‘heroically setting the world right’ all day today.

      Europe would do well to keep well out of it – if the UK wants to have an off with Russia, then let them. And of course, the EU relies heavily on Russia for gas imports, while UK gets its gas imports from Norway, so any disruption to the flow of Russian gas would directly harm the EU rather than the UK.

      Europe needs to think about its own interests, rather than follow USA and UK into confrontation with Russia.


      > Macron floats EU security pact with Russia in split from US calls for ‘unity’

      Move risks western division over Ukraine as Moscow says it would prefer to ‘do a deal with the Americans’

      French president Emmanuel Macron has called on the EU to forge its own plan for “security and stability” with Russia, in a move that risks undermining western solidarity in the face of Kremlin aggression towards Ukraine.

      In a speech to the European Parliament, Macron called for EU states to “conduct their own dialogue” with Russia rather than support diplomatic efforts led by the US and Nato, in sharp contrast to a plea from US secretary of state Antony Blinken for “unity”.

      Macron said that despite the joint EU-US diplomacy, Europeans had to offer Russia a solution to de-escalate tensions with Moscow in the “coming weeks”.

      “We should build as Europeans working with other Europeans and with Nato and then propose it for negotiation with Russia,” he told MEPs in Strasbourg on Wednesday. “It is good that Europeans and the United States co-ordinate, but it is necessary that Europeans conduct their own dialogue.”

      Macron’s intervention is the first example of public dissent between Nato members since the US first warned of a potential Russian attack on Ukraine more than two months ago.

      It also breaks a united front between the EU and US on Russia, underpinned by what officials have described as unprecedented levels of diplomatic outreach by the US to engage Brussels in the dialogue with Moscow.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      France has taken the EU presidency this year. Macron wants the EU to be an independent power with its own security position rather than rely on others like NATO. The post-WWII, ‘Cold War’ USA hegemony is looking strained.

      UK has shifted firmer into the USA military orbit with Brexit, although Biden has refused any trade deal with UK. Perhaps the Tories hope to dispose USA toward a trade deal with these NATO antics, while weakening the EU on the energy front. Macron is wise to have none of it.


      > Macron proposes security pact to make Europe a ‘power of the future’

      President Emmanuel Macron has outlined priorities for France’s presidency of the European Union. Speaking to EU lawmakers, he said the bloc must construct a new security framework amid tensions with Russia over Ukraine.

      The European Union needs a new collective security pact to deal with NATO and Russia, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday.

      “Europe today is confronted with escalating tension on our borders,” Macron said in a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. “As Europeans, we need to collectively make our own demands and put ourselves in a position to enforce them,” he added.

      The French proposal intends to “create together a European power of the future … an independent Europe that has given itself the means to decide its own future and not rely on the decisions of other major powers,” he said.

      France intends to create a new “security framework” during the presidency. “We need to build it between us, Europeans, share it with our allies in NATO, and propose it for negotiation to Russia,” Macron said.

      The EU was not directly involved in talks with Moscow over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine as tens of thousands of Russian troops amass on the country’s border.

      Katarina Barley, a vice president of the European Parliament and a member of Germany’s Social Democrats, told DW that the EU “does not have an original competence in foreign policy.”

      “We are actually a group of 27 member states and their interests, who unite to have a common foreign policy. And that is a weakness at times because reactions are sometimes not as quick and as firm as a single member state can give them,” she said.

      “But, on the other hand,” she said, “we have such a variety of historical experiences, of networks, that we should turn this into our strength and be, as a European Union, one of the forces that really contributes to dialogue, and to search a solution for this conflict that is actually in a very crucial phase at the moment.”

      • rogerbeesley says:

        I apologise, this is off topic:
        The UK has gone mad: Warships patrolling the Taiwan Strait, deliberately provoking Russia by entering, with warships, the territorial waters of the Crimea, under the ridiculous pretense that Crimea is part of Ukraine, sending soldiers to the Baltic States to train with them “to stand up to Russia”.
        The truth is that this is all a Westminster/Whitehall suck up to Washington. The rulers of the UK fervently believe in the “special relationship” between the UK and the US. That belief underpins their whole foreign policy. This despite the fact that they have been told many times, going back to President Wilson, in 1918, that no such “special” relationship exists.
        “Those whom the Gods would destroy, they first send mad”, perfectly describes British actions. It is as if they just cannot accept that they are now, at best, a middling European power.
        But perhaps it is not really off-topic. Gail has often said in her essays that economic instability, caused by energy problems, will lead to political instability, and very often, conflict.

      • Halfvard says:

        How is the EU capable of being remotely independent when it has next to zero petroleum and gas production? People compare Macron to Napoleon, but Napoleon was a shrewd politician and also a genius at logistics. Macron is neither of those, he merely has the egoism.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Looking at the context, Macron seems to be speaking of an EU security policy that is formed ‘independently’ from NATO. He does not seem to be speaking of independence in every possible aspect like energy or economic.

          I see no relevance to the Napolean comparison except that they both happen to be French leaders. It seems to be a cartoonish view, a music hall sort of rhetoric, a desire to relive a particular jingoistic historical ‘narrative’. Perhaps you could expand on the relevance of the comparison?

          • Halfvard says:

            Without any possibility of autarky there is no way for the EU to have an independent “security policy”. They will be a satellite of someone who can supply their energy and other material needs (Russia would seem to have the upper hand in taking this role).

            The Napoleonic comparison comes mainly from the idea that very lefty types seem to see him as a “proto-f@scist” and compare him to Napoleon in those terms, but also in my head I was making the comparison of what he’s stating his goal to be. His idea is a pie-in-the-sky independence for Europe that is not and can not possibly be based on material prosperity and energy extraction at this junction. If you compare this plan to Napoleon’s Continental System the difference is quite stark.

            Obviously Napoleon’s plan didn’t end up succeeding, but there was at least a possible way it could have.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              It seems to be fair to say that Macron is not talking about an absolute security independence but a tripartite arrangement that takes into account Russia and NATO, rather than just being a USA ‘poodle’ like the UK. So, the independence that he is talking about is relative and a matter of degree.

              > France intends to create a new “security framework” during the presidency. “We need to build it between us, Europeans, share it with our allies in NATO, and propose it for negotiation to Russia,” Macron said.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The UK sabre-rattling and the flow of arms into UKR comes as the Tories are nose-diving in the polls. They have been launching policies to regain public support, and they have been accused of using militarism in the past to that end.

      The opposition ‘Labour Party’ is keeping its head down over UKR, as it is frightened of being called ‘unpatriotic’ or of being seen as ‘weak’ on ‘defence’, especially after the LP under Corbyn was frontally and sustained attacked on those grounds.


      > Grim polls lay bare devastating impact of Partygate with Labour 11 POINTS ahead in Red Wall seats and leading by 32 POINTS in London – as the PM’s personal ratings slide again

      …. The government has been ramping up ‘Operation Red Meat’ with crowd-pleasing policies in an effort to quell the mutiny.

    • It is hard to see the US putting much effort into this.

  29. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    The Actor, Director and Producer…formerly married to Singer Madonna
    Senn Penn

    Growing old is more-or-less a sin in Hollywood, but 61-year-old Sean Penn isn’t mad about it. In a recent interview with the Toronto Sun, the actor said he was happy to grow old so he won’t have to deal with the world’s increasingly apocalyptic future.

    “I’m a little frustrated with the world,” Penn said. “I’m glad I’m old and won’t be having to deal with where this stuff is going.”

    Penn’s misanthropic comments seemed to be inspired by so-called cancel culture, as he went on to denounce those who pick and choose issues to be upset about.


    If he runs out of stuff to be fed up about, come on down to OFW with Fast Eddy End of the World Misanthropic Show!

  30. Lastcall says:

    Perhaps the softening in tone on the Covid fraud is in preparation for the hardening in tone on the Covert front with Ukraine.
    Must have freedom of movement to move to Boris’s war footing.
    The Next Big Lie (NBL….Trademark Lastcall) is being prepared.

    • Oddys says:


      It could also be the other way around – that they need an actual war to hide the crimes against humanity that the “vaccine” campaign has done and that is ready to explode in our faces.

      Or it is both ways – that both the covid/lockdown/vaccine thing and the Ukraine/war/gas thing is done to hide the lack of fossil energy that will soon give rolling blackouts.

      Or maybe it is just plain old stupidity all day long. It would not be the first time.

      Time will tell.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I don’t see any softening .. Austria starts a 3000+ Euro fine on unvaxxed people in Feb… quarantine spots into NZ still impossible to get… boosters being pushed hard… Israel starts on the babies in April…

        Bit of wishful thinking going on?

        let me repeat — removing all restrictions on a heavily vaxxed population during a pandemic will worsen the pandemic (more infections more in hospital more deaths)… and it will create worse mutations.

        Is there any part of that that needs further explaning?

  31. Sam says:

    I’m hearing more and more talk of some sort of reset . Is that even possible and what would it look like? Are they crazy enough to even try it? I think yes…

    • Oddys says:

      The WEF-people may be yapping around with various ideas about “reset” but it is my firm belief that the people at BIS wont have anything of that kind. Comparing BIS with the WEF crowd is like comparing a 500 lb gorilla with a cartoon.

      • reset is just a word pulled out of the air to provide some kind of imaginary ‘focus’ to economic chaos

        ‘the point of it all is so that ”they” can reset to system’

        means nothing

        no one has the power to reset any system

        the economy we have set up over centuries will implode and collapse. when it does we will revert to a more primitive lifestyle.
        there will not be a ‘reset’ that will leave an ‘elite’ better off, not in the long term anyway.

        possessions have no value if no means exists for someone else to buy them from you—a simple truth that evades the ‘resetters’.

        if i own 1000 houses and make my living renting them out—if theres a ‘great reset’ and no one can afford to rent from me, my houses go into dereliction very quickly

        people live by exchanging forms of energy . they do not live by ‘resetting’ forms of monetary systems.

        money is merely an energy token—energy can’t be ‘reset’ into something else. Once energy is used,,,burned or whatever–it is gone forever.

      • I agree that the BIS and WEF are very different. Hopefully, the WEF doesn’t have much say in what happens.

  32. Alexandre says:

    I didn’t see the subject in the other comments, but one of the big problem you stated for Europe is the decrease of nuclear electricity. I’m french (probably the world’s leader for nuclear share in electricity with ~70 %) and this decrease is not ONLY intended. In fact, a new nuclear plant (type EPR) was supposed to be operationnal in northern France back in 2012 (Flamanville). Now, it is still not operationnal and its cost were multiple by almost 4 (it is now estimated to 22 billions euros instead of about 6). The only EPRs working (as far as I know) are in China (one of them was stopped because of a leak in main cooling system) and Finland (this one was supposed to be operationnal in 2008 and was finally started in 2021).
    But the old nuclear plants are really old and reaching their supposed life expectancy (about 40 years). The last nuclear plant built in France was started in 1992 or 1993, so about 30 years ago. It is true that Fessenheim was stopped by a political decision, but during Fall 2021, 26 nuclear plants units (in french we say “slice”, I don’t know the english word) were disconnected, not because someone wanted to stop them, but because maintenance was needed. So, at least in France, nuclear is decreasing also because nuclear plants are old and their disponibility is declining (as any old machine).
    I think it is still linked to a ploitical problem : politicians were so long to decide to build new nuclear plants that the knowledge was somewhat lost.
    And for the point about politicians forcing electricity producers to limit their price, did you see the drop of EDF (the former national public electricity provider) actions besause french state decided to increase the share of their electricity they have to sell to other energy providers at low price ? Or how to destroy a working system to comply with “invisible hand” theory…

  33. JMS says:

    If there were a nobel prize for prophecy, this foulmouthed lady would certainly be a million dollars richer now. Video release date: September 2019.


    • Oddys says:

      Cabintalk is definitely on my radar (specially since YT censored her). Check out her latest:


      ( https://www.bitchute.com/video/2wlNx1mi3bsF/ )

      It is really strange how the people at Google never seem to have heard about the “Streisand effect” and keep censoring like that. They are supposed to be Internet Ninjas or something. Nowadays a status of “censored by YT/Google/FB” start to become a mark of quality. I pay special attention to such material.

      • JMS says:

        That is my stance too: if something is censored, it ‘s because it bothers our masters, and if it bothers them it’s because it contains some dangerous truth. In other words, we live in a time when we should be suspicious of that which is not censored.

      • Azure Kingfisher says:

        “It is really strange how the people at Google never seem to have heard about the ‘Streisand effect’ and keep censoring like that. They are supposed to be Internet Ninjas or something.”

        Google, like a lot of tech companies, is comprised of mostly young STEM employees who lack life experience, maturity, and sufficient exposure to history and the humanities. In short, they’re doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past. Couple that with a decent portion of foreign-born, H1-B visa holders at tech companies not wanting to rock their own precarious boats and you have an explanation for why tech platforms currently resemble totalitarian digital landscapes.

        Google Removes ‘Don’t Be Evil’ Clause From Its Code of Conduct – May 18, 2018

        “Google’s unofficial motto has long been the simple phrase ‘don’t be evil.’ But that’s over, according to the code of conduct that Google distributes to its employees. The phrase was removed sometime in late April or early May, archives hosted by the Wayback Machine show.

        “’Don’t be evil’ has been part of the company’s corporate code of conduct since 2000. When Google was reorganized under a new parent company, Alphabet, in 2015, Alphabet assumed a slightly adjusted version of the motto, ‘do the right thing.’ However, Google retained its original ‘don’t be evil’ language until the past several weeks. The phrase has been deeply incorporated into Google’s company culture—so much so that a version of the phrase has served as the wifi password on the shuttles that Google uses to ferry its employees to its Mountain View headquarters, sources told Gizmodo.”

        “The updated version of Google’s code of conduct still retains one reference to the company’s unofficial motto—the final line of the document is still: ‘And remember… don’t be evil, and if you see something that you think isn’t right – speak up!'”


      • Fast Eddy says:

        Is that similar to the Celine Dion effect? hahahaha

  34. Oddys says:

    I could not make this up for trying. Its a scenario that not even Hubbert, Campbell or Laherre ever imagined, let alone Gail:


    “This is a threat! If you go ahead we promise to make ourselves freeze in the dark”

    Reminds more of John Cleese than anything else…

    • I agree. This is bizarre! Brainwashing about “renewables can/will save us” has gone way too far. Or thinking that Germany has the power to fix the problem, with this approach.

      • Student says:

        A sort of Seppuku imposed to their population and other europeans too.

        And it also reminds last Ugo Bardi’s article about the strategy to bomb own gas station.


      • Oddys says:

        I imagine Vlad will need a day or two to get his face composed after reading this… “..ehh you are the new guy, eh..? Maybe you should have one of those ‘New Hire’ signs on the lapel..? … or indeed a ‘kick me’ sign on your back?”

      • JesseJames says:

        Germany has an incredibly powerful scientific history. One that includes overcoming impossible problems. For example, they perfected the Haber Bosch process during WWI to produce fertilizer and explosive gunpowder from the air. Otherwise they could not have waged war for more then 6 months. They then perfected making gasoline and synthetic rubber from coal and air prior to WWII, again enabling their relative independence from oil during that war. They designed the first ground to ground rockets with automatic self guidance systems. They invented and built the first jet aircraft.

        So the stupid politicians probably think they can actually do without….how I do not know but please factor in the incredible obstacles they have overcome in the past. With Germany’s prowess in physics, I am surprised they are not all over small portable nuclear reactors and small fusion approaches.

        I would never bet against the scientists of Germany or the technical prowess of a place like Japan. Both are in the same boat….no oil. Both can do amazing things when they put their mind to it.

        I can kind of understand the arrogance of the stupid politicians….but they should know better.

    • JMS says:

      Monthy Phyton’s material right.

    • Jef Jelten says:

      We better listen to them. Their just crazy enough to do it.

      “Blazing Saddles – Nobody move or …”


      • JesseJames says:

        Buying a coal mine to shut it down…the ultimate in stupid.
        With these idiots affecting energy on a large scale collapse is certain to happen more quickly.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I’ll sell them my Rayburn for 50k….

          BTW – reading something on papal indulgences and the reformation at the moment … and it got me to thinking …

          Fast Eddy has 1500HP (1HP = 500 IQ points)… HE does not need all that HP…

          What if… HE .. appointed me… as HIS agent to flog a bit of the HP to the MOREONS of the world….

          HE doesn’t want the money (HE has no need for money) but I could use a few shekels… (for the VIP room when I am allowed back in)…

          norm — mike…. let me know how many points you want to buy and I’ll get you a quotation

      • I don’t think Greenpeace was successful. The article ends,

        So, while Greenpeace Nordic may have been rejected in their attempt to acquire the desolate landscapes of Germany’s lignite mines, it may just be a matter of time before someone else shows that it can work.

  35. Michael Le Merchant says:

    FreeNZ questions MSM journalistic integrity.

    Liz implored TV One to investigate talk of 5 children collapsing at the drive-through clinic on the North Shore, Auckland today. Instead, the reporter scuttled away in the opposite direction from the kids being inoculated. TV ONE is paid up accredited media, FreeNZ is not. We could not access the tent for confirmation.

  36. Michael Le Merchant says:

    How Bad Is My Batch – The Story Of My Vaccine Injury By Dr Robert Malone

    In fact, I do have a personal life. My wife of of 42 years and I are actually pretty private. Sharing personal history is not something I do everyday. However, as many of you know – I was vaccinated with Moderna twice and had a pretty significant vaccine injury. This was pretty early in the roll-out of the vaccines. It was long before the FOIA Japanese pre-clinical trial data that had so many red-flags and irregularities, long before we learned of all the issues with the clinical trials, and long before the VAERs and adverse events began to be known.

  37. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Early Omicron Breakthroughs Show MRNA Vaccines’ Weakness

    (Bloomberg) — Booster shots with mRNA vaccines such as those made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE failed to block infection with the omicron coronavirus variant in the first study of its kind, South African researchers said. Seven German visitors to Cape Town experienced so-called breakthrough Covid-19 infections between late November and early December despite being boosted, the researchers, whose investigation was authorized by the University of Cape Town and Stellenbosch University, said in findings published in The Lancet on Jan. 18.

  38. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Germany: 100,000 doctors refuse to take part in compulsory vaccination. They say their offices are not places to impose government action. The state must now force patients AND doctors…

    In the dispute over a possible obligation to vaccinate, the head of the statutory health insurance physicians, Andreas Gassen, has put his foot down. Should the controversial obligation to be vaccinated against Corona actually come about, the around 100,000 registered panel doctors will probably not implement it. “We will not expect our doctors to carry out a vaccination against the will of the patient,” Gassen told the Bild newspaper. The doctor’s boss went on to say that a practice lives from the trust between doctor and patient. The practices are “not a place to enforce government measures”.

    Should vaccination come about and the panel doctors stick to their boycott, unvaccinated people would have to get the injection either from the approximately 2,500 doctors in the public health service or in the vaccination centers. In the currently sometimes heated discussion about a possible vaccination obligation, there is also a dispute about an obligation to advise those who have not been vaccinated. Such an obligation to provide advice was recently called for by NRW Health Minister Karl-Josef Laumann.

    • I notice that the Epoch Times is reporting:


      England Ends All COVID Passports, Mask Mandates, Work Restrictions

      Restrictions including COVID-19 passes, mask mandates, and work-from-home requirements will be removed in England, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Wednesday.

      Johnson also suggested that self-isolation rules may also be thrown out at the end of March as the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic becomes endemic.

      Effective immediately, the UK government is no longer asking people to work from home.

      Mask wearing rules are also being thrown out.

      It looks like countries are starting to diverge in their response to the virus. China seems to be going the opposite direction, killing pets to try to contain the spread in Hong Kong.

      • Michael Le Merchant says:

        “We know they are lying. They know they are lying. They know that we know they are lying. We know that they know that we know they are lying. And still they continue to lie.” —Alexander Solzhenitsyn

        Too many goalposts moved and ‘noble’ lies too many times to believe them.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I am amazed that many people are celebrating this.

          They seem to think that the narrative we have been fed has been legit – that ‘they’ made a mistake … or did it for money … but now they are being forced to open up.

          If so then why not follow GBD ‘focused protection?’

          If so then why continue with the injections of young children?

          If so then why continue with the Boosters (Turkey is starting on shot 5).

          As you point out … they lied all along … they are continuing to lie

          This is — without a doubt — the Beginning of the End.

          Devil Covid ahead. Extinction to Follow.

      • Minority of One says:

        Last weekend some of the UK media headlines were predicting this, because Boris is trying to save his skin. There are calls from all over the place, even Tory party MPs, for Boris to go. The thinking was if Boris drops all the CV19 mandates / restrictions, he will be forgiven and keep his job. I have no idea what is going on.

        • as i said at the very start of this pandemic, in 2020, no one knows what to do

          this is something new that has thrown our commercial system into chaos.

          the only people to benefit are the conspiracy mongers—”they are plotting to kill 90% of us”—-”Fauci is making billions out of vaccines”—-”millions of dead and maimed people===–”making women sterile”—”Bill Gates is injecting everyone with iron filings”

          all of the above have been offered as ‘truth’.

          humankind has invaded animal territory too deeply.

          a virus has jumped species, and will do so again, probably with more lethal results next time. Viruses are more powerful than we are—few can admit it.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Most countries have not fully locked — because they want to virus to spread to the now massive number of injected fools…

          But at the same time they need to continue to frighten them so they continue to boost.

      • Oddys says:

        I suspect that the numbers are starting to come in showing massive side effects and deaths from the “vaccines” and that knowledge about this is spreading inside governments and selected media. There are lies, damned lies and statistics, but not even world class statisticians can hide actual dead bodies. At least not when they start to gather up in piles.

        They did a darn clever trick whith denoting people as “vaccinated” only two weeks after the second shot. Most deaths occur during the first week after each shot and one can guess that it is the most vulnerable who die or end up in ICU from the shot. Of course the cohort that survive will show a little better health since the weak and sick have been kílled during the “vaccination”.

        Honest statistics would of course treat people as “vaccinated” immediately after the first shot in order to assess the total healt effect from the shots. Two weeks after the second shot would qualify for “immunized” but certainly not for “vaccinated”.

        My guess is that the company IQVia has been involved here. Statistical misconduct is their speciality.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Billions of injected MOREONS + a highly contagious virus (that is causing record deaths + hospitalizations) + Let It Rip = Devil Covid

  39. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Vaccinators Will Never Stop Vaccinating

    Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel discusses his plans for continued vaccination in the post-Corona world.

    The vaccinators are deranged lunatics, and whatever happens with Corona, we now face a prolonged, multi-year struggle to retain control of our bodies and our bloodstreams. This is what I get from COVID-19: What’s Next?, a World Economic Forum panel discussion featuring Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel.

    Like everything produced by the WEF, it’s stultifying, boring and terrifying all at the same time. Below the fold, I’ve transcribed the key moments for you, but the takeaways are simple enough:

    —Moderna, just one of multiple pharmaceuticals eager to exploit our new vaccine mania, are expanding their manufacturing capacity to produce as many as 6 billion mRNA vaccine doses per year.

    —Moderna will have an Omicron-specific vaccine as early as March, and they won’t be the only ones. The compliant triple jabbed can look forward to having their fully vaccinated status revoked once again.

    —Moderna are working in close collaboration with “Dr. Fauci’s team” and with public health experts to develop an annual combined mRNA flu, RSV and Corona vaccine to reduce “compliance issues.”

    —The industry more broadly has targeted about 20 pathogens for vaccine development, from Zika to Nipah, with a view towards being able to rapidly deploy mRNA vaccines against future virus threats.

    The vaccinators are a great sword of Damocles over our heads. As I type this, they are scouring the earth for the novel pathogens their products require, and they, together with their bureaucratic and academic allies, will do their level best to call into being new pandemic scares and vaccination campaigns whenever possible – perhaps every flu season.

  40. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Norwegian Supply Increase Not Enough to Replace Missing Russian Gas

    Norway is delivering natural gas to Europe at maximum capacity, but this cannot replace any missing supplies from Russia, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said on Wednesday.

    Norwegian companies have optimized their delivery potential to “the maximum capacity and a bit more” that will allow for a stable supply to Europe, Stoere said during a panel discussion while visiting Berlin.

    • Minority of One says:

      “Norwegian Supply Increase Not Enough to Replace Missing Russian Gas”

      What missing Russian gas?

      If they are meeting their contracted obligations, which seems to be the case, what is missing?

      • Oddys says:

        The russians just refuse to bid on the spot markets, declaring that they are only interested in long-term contracts in order to be able to plan and make investments.

    • There is basically not enough natural gas to go around. Musical chairs time!

  41. Michael Le Merchant says:

    New report estimates fertilizer prices to increase by 80%

    Texas farmers are experiencing sticker shock as the price of fertilizer continues to climb. Already up as much as 200% year-over-year, the cost of fertilizing crops is expected to get even more expensive in 2022.

    That’s the message Dr. Joe Outlaw, co-director of the Texas A&M University Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC), delivered to farmers at the Blackland Income Growth Conference.

    Although AFPC initially predicted a modest 10% increase in fertilizer prices in an August 2021 forecast, a mix of factors has since converged, causing the cost to rise astronomically.

    In a report prepared at the request of Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow, Outlaw and other AFPC agricultural economists noted product shortages and growing input costs will create a challenging environment for which the farm safety net is ill-prepared.

    “Coupled with current COVID supply chain issues, this will further stress the production environment for agriculture across the country,” he said. “The current farm safety net is not designed to address these types of rapid production cost increases, which will continue to be a growing concern for farmers across the country, creating an emerging need for assistance.”

    The largest whole-farm impact will fall on farmers who grow feedgrains, with an average of $128,000 in additional fertilizer costs, according to the AFPC report. Per acre, rice farmers will feel the biggest impact at $62.04 an acre.

    • Our farming system depends of fertilizer, pesticides and irrigation. If any of these becomes way too expensive, we have problems.

    • Article includes statement that issuing organization says only a fraction of increase in Ammonia price is accounted for increase in energy cost for Natural Gas (Of course this is the US price for gas)

      What they dont recognize or at least mention is that Energy prices in EUROPE and shutdown in Fertilizer plants over there are what is driving this.

      Marginal cost of domestic fertilizer is due to global price/demand changes

      Would be a different story if Fertilizer were sold on long term contract basis as opposed to spot market/short term basis — this is the lesson Russia is trying to teach all of us by teaching Europe the same lesson regarding Natural Gas.

  42. Michael Le Merchant says:

    An overview of Indonesia’s coal export ban and Asia’s energy crisis

    Coal companies weren’t meeting their domestic sales obligations

    Coal prices have shot up around the world this month after Indonesia — the fourth biggest coal producer in the world — temporarily banned coal exports from January 1 to January 31 after domestic stockpiles at the state-owned PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) power plants fell to critically low levels. By December 31, the PLN had less than 1 percent of the coal it needed this month, according to officials from Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Without the ban, islands including Java and Bali may have faced widespread power loss and blackouts, according to Ridwan Jamaludin, the ministry’s director general for coal.

    • I looked up Indonesia’s coal data. The country greatly ramped up production, in the years leading up to 2013, and then again in 2018 and 2019. There was a drop in production in 2020. I wouldn’t think of this as short supply, but it could reflect this, besides other things.

  43. Pingback: Britain’s Versailles moment

    • I see that Tim Watkins links to my current post in this paragraph:

      While there is growing awareness among the political class that we face an imminent “standards of living” crisis – which they still speak about in the third person – there is no sign that they understand the causes or the depths of what is coming. Indeed, the emerging solution to the gas and electricity component – providing loans to energy companies to keep consumer prices low until the wholesale price of gas falls again – displays a serious lack of awareness of the impossibility of having infinite growth on a finite planet, since one of the main causes of the crisis is that we have used up all of the cheap and easy gas deposits and are now left with only the difficult and expensive ones to sustain us. And since we wrecked our coal industries and left ourselves entirely dependent upon gas to back up our over-deployment of intermittent wind generation – a process being repeated across the developed world – the wholesale price of gas is going to remain high for as long as it takes for clever people somewhere else to figure out an affordable means of coping with intermittency.

      The article talks about the retreat of prosperity in the UK. The post ends with

      we have yet to see any evidence that the ruling elite even begins to understand the process of collapse which is unfolding, still less offers any serious response to it.

      • i dont think it was a case of wrecking our coal industry

        as long as miners were content to work underground for slave labour pay, coal was cheap.
        when miners demanded £25 k and upwards, then coal became too expemsive to burn–at least the british underground variety

        as with many energy sources, they are being priced out the range of the people who expect them to be cheaply available.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Real wages are already dropping in UK, below inflation. The line chart in this article makes clear that wages in UK have not improved, inflation considered, since 2008.


          Wages and living standards cannot rise without any growth in productivity. There is only more to take home if more is produced in the working day. Productivity growth in all ‘mature’ capitalist economies has converged toward zero since the 1970s, and it has been zero since 2008.

          The capitalist state relies entirely on labour expansion now to grow GDP and to keep the profit-based capitalist system going – but living standards cannot rise that way.

          So, living standards have been headed for a terminal scenario since the 1970s, they have flatlined since 2008, and well, we will have to see what happens and when, but rising energy costs are bound to lower the standard of living, and will ultimately collapse the entire economic society.

          > UK workers’ pay rises fall behind inflation amid cost-of-living crisis

          Pay for workers in Britain has fallen in real terms for the first time in more than a year, despite signs that employers shrugged off concerns over the Omicron coronavirus variant to continue hiring in December.

          Average wages, after taking account of inflation, dropped in November for the first time since July 2020 amid growing concerns over the hit to living standards this year from high inflation and surging energy bills.

          The Office for National Statistics said although average total earnings grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in November, the impact from soaring rates of inflation meant workers suffered a real-terms cut in their pay packets. The official rate of inflation reached a 10-year high of 5.1% in November, effectively meaning a 1.6% cut in pay.

          Using its preferred measure of consumer price inflation including owner occupiers’ housing costs, it said real-terms pay had fallen at an annual rate of 0.9% in November.

          However, the latest labour market snapshot revealed steady gains for job creation despite the fallout from Omicron and worsening squeeze on pay. According to figures from HMRC, the number of employees on UK company payrolls rose by 184,000 on the month to 29.5 million, an increase of 409,000 on pre-pandemic levels as the jobs market continues to recover from Covid-19.

  44. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The Average Vaccine Efficacy Against Death —Once Hospitalised— From 12 January to 19 January, 2022 was NEGATIVE at -76% in NSW Australia (8 Days).

  45. Student says:

    Ex-head developer of Israeli COVID vaccine slams Genesis Prize for Pfizer CEO
    Prof. Shmuel Shapira, former head of the Defense Ministry’s Biological Institute, calls pharma giant’s vaccines ‘mediocre,’ says company only wanted to ‘rake in billions’.
    Taking to Twitter, Prof. Shmuel Shapira, the former head of the Defense Ministry’s Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR), called the decision “pathetic.”
    He also called the pharma giant’s COVID-19 vaccine “mediocre” and effective only in the “short term.”
    “He’s the CEO of a company that did not do this from the goodness of their heart, but merely to rake in billions,”
    There are countries with lower vaccination rates that bore [the pandemic] just fine,” he said.


  46. Charlie says:

    Thank you for your new article.
    We are facing the limits and within those limits one of the big problems is that the average citizen cannot pay the high cost of energy

  47. Pingback: 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recessionIn my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained: – Olduvai.ca

  48. Student says:

    ‘Is the health service ready for a conflict that could trigger a war?’ (with Russia)
    ‘We hope that diplomacy still wins, but we should also plan to plan the worst happen.’

    article date 16 January 2022


  49. Mirror on the wall says:

    Boris wants IN on any OFF in Ukraine. He sailed war ships into Russian waters last year, shouting out, ‘Come on then, you want some?!’ but he quickly sailed away when the Russia air force showed up.


    > British weapons including anti-tank missiles arrive in Ukraine – after Germany BLOCKED cargo plane from flying through its airspace for risk of angering Putin – as Kiev prepares for ‘full-scale invasion’ by Russia

    British weapons including anti-tank missiles have arrived in Ukraine after the cargo plane was blocked from flying over German air space.

    Two RAF transporters flew badly needed missile systems to Kiev’s forces, and troops aboard the planes will remain in Ukraine to teach their counterparts how to combat Russian tanks.

    Footage shows the consignment being transported from a plane at a Ukraine airport, in a bid to counter the imminent threat of a Russian invasion, with 100,000 of their troops stationed on the border.

    The weapons were sent on RAF C-17 planes which took a longer route over Danish rather than German airspace.

    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the deployment came ‘in light of the increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia’.

    Germany has refused to provide Ukraine with weapons, with Chancellor Chancellor Olaf Scholz blocking Britain from flying over their airspace to deliver the cargo through fear of angering Vladimir Putin.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The British ruling class has been getting really manly and animated of late, so Russia had better watch out! Prince Andrew has hardly been able to contain his fury!


      > Prince Andrew’s teddy bear tantrums revealed: Ex-Royal protection officer claims Duke of York would ‘shout and scream’ if palace maids knocked out of place his collection of 60 stuffed toys

      Former bodyguard Paul Page made the revelation during an interview with Ranvir Singh for the upcoming ITV documentary, Ghislaine, Prince Andrew and the Paedophile. The former constable, who left the Metropolitan Police in 2007, was part of the elite Royal Protection Squad and had access to the Duke of York’s private residence. He claimed that Andrew had a bed with ’50 or 60′ stuffed toys and maids were given a laminated picture so each bear could carefully be put back in its original position. He said: ‘It had about 50 or 60 stuffed toys positioned on the bed and basically there was a card the inspector showed us in a drawer and it was a picture of these bears all in situ. The reason for the laminated picture was if those bears weren’t put back in the right order by the maids, he would shout and scream.’

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      There is nothing like a severe tooth ache to get the testosterone flowing!


      > One in five people try dentistry at home including pulling out their own TEETH amid staff crisis at surgeries, report shows

      More than half of Britons have not seen a dentist in the past year, with most saying they could not get an appointment. The crisis led to one in five treating themselves at home.

  50. No

    Everything will contract, and after a dog eats dog struggle, something like the Turkish Sultanate will take over the entire world

    It was Jan Sobieski which saved Europe (not Wellington or the idiot who closed the door at Hougomont, which eventually led England to be conquered by the Hindus),but historically the Asiatic despotism was where most people lived under

    So it is coming back

Comments are closed.