2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. Bobby says:

    The same old same old and it is so faithful, You can’t keep a good man down.

    The antidote to lying stupidity is….just bring in the Truth Dr

    ….need more Truth Drs

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/459948/murupara-gp-to-be-suspended-pending-further-investigation

    • According to the article:

      Among the accusations are that he labelled patient notes of people who have had the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine as “becoming magnetic”, which Dr Conlon described as “baffling”.

      • Wet My Beak says:

        It’s criminal how these new zealand filth are treating this outstanding doctor, a man of parts no doubt.

        He must realise it’s a waste of time casting pearls among swine. In particular government employees in sad new zealand are poorly educated and jealous of anyone actually making a contribution to this primitive ignorant society.

        The truth will eventually out and he will be vindicated. In the meantime suicide figures in this backward lavatory of a country are breaking records.

  2. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Triple Vaccinated put the most pressure on the NHS by far over the past 4 weeks according to UKHSA with 74% of Covid-19 hospitalisations recorded among the Vaccinated
    https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/01/22/triple-vaccinated-account-for-most-covid-hospitalisations/

    • I don’t care for this analysis. It talks about cases in different categories, but it doesn’t compare this to a base of number of people likely in these categories. You can’t tell very much.

      • Sam says:

        Good call! Gail….. Way to go…just because we want something to be true does not mean we can let our guard down on poor statistical analysis. I would love for it to be true as I have taken a lot of abuse for not getting vaxed….

  3. Ed says:

    UK has dropped the BS while Austria goes full Nuremberg. See BREXIT was required.

  4. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Los Angeles weighs phasing out oil and gas drilling
    By Associated Press
    Diaz moved back to the neighborhood as an adult in 2009, she says she developed a chronic cough and lost her sense of taste. After comparing notes with neighbors in 2011, she realized such ailments were a widespread problem that residents blame on living near oil fields most recently operated by AllenCo Energy.

    “It has been the bane of my existence since I was young,” she said.

    After a decade of complaints from residents like Diaz, the Los Angeles City Council is expected to vote as soon as next week on a measure that would ban new oil and gas wells in the nation’s second-most populous city and phase out existing wells over a five-year period.

    The AllenCo Energy oil wells there are just a few among hundreds located in Los Angeles, which has the country’s largest concentration of urban oil fields. There are approximately 1,000 active or idle wells in the city, according to a city controller’s report citing data from the state Division of Oil, Gas and Geothermal Resources.
    The effort to shut down the city’s wells is part of a region-wide movement to push oil and gas drilling out of Los Angeles County. In 2021, similar measures were passed to ban drilling in Culver City and unincorporated parts of the county.

    oil and gas industry opposes moves to rid the region of drilling, saying that would raise gas prices, eliminate jobs and make the area more dependent on foreign oil.

    We’re an energy island,” said Ray Watson, an industry worker who spoke at a recent city council meeting. “There aren’t any magic pipelines that run anywhere else in the United States to California to supply oil. It’s going to come on dirty supertankers from despotic regimes like Saudi Arabia if we don’t produce it here.”

    …“I really believe that if they do transitional education, that they’ll find jobs,” Diaz said. And while she’s worried about gas prices rising from a ban, she said it’s a temporary inconvenience.

    “We have to stop using fossil fuel. We’re hurting the Earth,” she said. “We have to sacrifice today for the kids of tomorrow.

    https://nypost.com/2022/01/21/los-angeles-weighs-phasing-out-oil-and-gas-drilling/

    What are people thinking??????

    • It sounds like magical thinking to me.

      • Sam says:

        I didn’t know that Los Angeles had that much oil and gas!? It can’t be very much is it even worth it…probably not but it makes for a good confusing story….Greenies read this and think well we are doing something the right wingers read this and think we have so much oil everywhere! The damn greenies are making it so expensive to fill my pickup truck! So many stupid people on the right and left!!

    • Lidia17 says:

      Can’t remember if I found this link here or elsewhere. If here, it can bear repeating.

      As of Dec. 31, oil-powered heating is banned in all new construction projects across Quebec, part of the province’s push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

      In two years, Quebec will go a step further by making it illegal to replace existing oil furnaces with any sort of heating system powered by fossil fuels after Dec. 31, 2023,

      “The new rules were laid out in a ministerial decree on oil and gas heating passed in late November.

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-bans-oil-heating-1.6252420

      Quebec has a good deal of hydropower, but it’s hard for me to believe they are going to replace all heating systems in the province with something electrically-based.

      • Last time this story was linked a couple of days ago I did some research but didnt finish calculaton/conversions etc to do complete analysis – not fully up on my heat transfer home design rating calcs so decided it was too much to post. However since reposting here is what I looked at:

        Quebec as a province disproportionate high percentage of Canada hydropower has approx same per capita as Norway. Quebecs Hydro Rating with world high 59% capacity factor per wiki (yeah i know- this is slow & dirty) (assumes means they can deliver 59% of Rated/Installed Potential on yearly basis? due to intermittency and tradeoffs flood control river flow mismatch w/ demand) so they have lotsa “renewable” electricity compared to probably >99% of world).

        If install geothermal heat pump (new “high tech” low temp heat pumps 80% potential down to -15F) efficiency with a COP of 300-400% (3-4x heat delivered compared to electric energy expended) when you factor in line losses etc you actually have access to similar or more in-home heat than in orginal unburned FF at generating station with either gas (40% delivered efficiency x 3 = 1.2) or coal (32% delivered x3 = 0.96) generation & transmission.

        of course simple resistance heating not way to go

        in comparison I found high efficiency modern wood furnace heating manufacturer in Minnesota Zone 7 so similar to Quebec) touted 5-7 cords of wood in a modern well insulated 3200 SF home per heating season.

        Gas Furnace rating required zone 7 1500SF home good insulation is ~ 90,000 btu (maximum per day?) but as mentioned by wood furnace folks say in terms fractional runtime over season only looking at ~1/3 of this capacity need as average (turns on/off frequently except for only the coldest hour or day of operation)

        So if you have the capital & the aquisition\manufacturing energy available to imbed in a modern cooling/housing BBB (lol) or renovated system then this probably smart policy.

        once dam or run of river hydroelectric umaintainable then another story.

  5. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Australia is quickly moving to implement the Global Digital ID slave control grid.
    https://twitter.com/WolfishHead/status/1484770446868418560

  6. Anything can be spun any way a newspaper chooses. The headline today in the Atlanta Journal Constitution is an Associated Press story which the AJC spins as Boosters key in foiling omicron. When I looked for the Associated Press story, it says Booster shots needed against omicron, CDC studies show, which is fairly different. In other words, two shots increasingly don’t work, compared to three shots.

    https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-29f2895733312cb4b39393fcf3780cc0

    • Ed says:

      “Two doses, however, offered no significant protection against omicron when measured several months after completion of the original series, the researchers found.”

      It is not a vaccine. It only pushes the immune system for a limit period of time maybe four months. Vitamin D and C and Ivermectin can do the same at low cost and without the deaths and maiming of the jabs.

    • Student says:

      And the more the number of doses increases, the time between doses needs to be shorter and shorter. Going on like this, one needs to make a jab every month or even week.
      See what is happening in Israel.
      They are at fourth dose.
      Please see:

      “Defense minister, vaccinated 4 times” […] “Gantz becomes latest government minister to catch COVID-19”
      https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-becomes-latest-government-minister-to-catch-covid-19/

  7. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Bravo Croatia!

    Croatian MEP Mislav Kolakušić Calls Out French President Macron In European Parliament…
    https://twitter.com/Orwells_Ghost_/status/1484834358972276736

  8. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Federal judge in Texas blocks Biden’s vaccine mandate for federal workers
    Fri, January 21, 2022, 12:56 PM

    A federal judge in Texas on Friday blocked President Biden’s mandate for federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in the latest blow to the White House’s vaccination efforts.

    Judge Jeffrey Brown, who was appointed by former President Trump, wrote that the order exceeded the president’s authority.

    The case is about “whether the President can, with the stroke of a pen and without the input of Congress, require millions of federal employees to undergo a medical procedure as a condition of their employment,” Brown wrote.

    Exactly!

  9. Yoshua says:

    It looks like Ukraine is taking on more external debt when energy prices rise. The external debt was 150% of GDP when the Euro Maidan revolution took place. Today the external debt is $125B while the GDP hit a record $195B in 2021. The external debt is still high and this week their sovereign dollar bond collapsed. Ukraine is now practically cut out from international financing.

    I guess Ukraine adds the higher energy cost on the price of their products for exports. The products are still competitive on the global market since the wages in Ukraine are low. Ukraine exports about 40-50% of its GDP.

  10. hillcountry says:

    From a reddit /collapse thread

    Location: Gwinnett County, Georgia, US (Repost)

    The largest hospital in Georgia, Grady Memorial, is at 110% of capacity.

    “Dr. Robert Jansen, Chief Medical Officer and Chief of Staff at Grady Health System said they are running at about 110% capacity right now.

    “We’ve had to divert ambulances over the last several weeks because of the huge number of patients coming in,” Dr. Jansen said.”

    Grady serves all of northern Georgia.

    51% of Georgia’s eligible population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

    32,000 Georgians have died of COVID-19.
    =======
    * Grady is also a major trauma and stroke center as well. Them being overwhelmed is really bad news. They deal with a ton of accident and shooting victims.

  11. Student says:

    China is again making the supply chain to struggle.
    We have to analyze that they ‘play’ with covid in a different way.
    They don’t impose mandatory vaccinations and don’t segregate people between vaccinated and not-vaccinated, but they just apply general restrictions to all.
    I personally would not like to live there, but considering that here we are using experimental vaccines which target the original whuan virus and we are now at the fourth mutation (and not considering current adverse events), we have to admit that their approach promote social cohesion, avoiding citizens to hate each others.
    It is something to think about…

    https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/yantian-limits-export-boxes-as-chinese-ports-struggle-with-congestion

  12. CTG says:

    A quick update

    1. In my reality here in this country, among my close friends and relatives with boosters shots, no one has an adverse or even side effects. Students in schools taking Pfizer has no size effects. All perfectly healthy even after 2 shots. Kinda of amazing, isn’t it

    2. It seems that the financial system is getting from bad to worse and perhaps going to worst? It is like a chaos in the oscillation of a pendulum just before it stops (??)

    3. There is so many interesting things an issues surrounding COVID.

    4. I think the news flow in 1 week is the news flow for 1 year in the 1950s.

    It is very giddy with the things happening in such a fast pace. I think human brains is not capable handling it

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Same here, CTG, and thank you for your thoughts.
      Don’t see people Interact with having bad side effects from the vaccines at all.
      That’s not to say later on they won’t appear.
      True for your other points.
      Today the massive data info flow overwhelms and most folks shutdown to maintain their bearing on things. I even catch myself sometimes saying, “I’d rather not know!”
      I agree 💯👍 we are in collapse or in the process and the as they say the chairs on the Titanic are being shuffled

    • Oddys says:

      Sweden here – same observation. Some reports of brief side effects after injection but no cardiac arrests or sudden deaths among athletes. One Danish soccer player went down but survived. Some reports of disturbed periods in women and a couple of cadiac arrests in elderly but certainly no avalanche. Maybe a tendency to increase in complicated childbirths and maybe a slight decrease in births in general, but there is seasonal fluctuations and we are in the low season right now.

      I went trough the official statistics and found absolutely NO increased mortality among ages 18-65 and indeed no increased mortality at all for 2021. EUROMOMO.EU shows significantly increased mortality for 18-65 during 2021 for EU though, worse than 2020-2016 and definitely worth deeper investigations.

      • drb says:

        I watch euromomo too, and this appears to be a very average winter when it comes to European mortality. The color coded map is full of gray and light blue…

        • Oddys says:

          Go to Graps and Maps, scroll down to “excess mortality” and “select all” under Years.

          They do a hell of a lot of “normalization” of various kinds so it is difficult to interpret the data, but the Éxcess Mortality is not so heavily conditioned.

          • drb says:

            Oh, I know how to use the site, been using it since March 2020. FYI, one unit of z-score is one standard deviation in the modeled number of deaths (the sinusoidal curve they overlay on the data). For Italy, with about 12500 deaths per week, it is about 110 excess deaths (115 in winter, 105 in summer). You need to get this normalization from other sites (overall national mortality). I then estimate z-scores for age bands based on the euro data at the top.

            Regardless, we both see low deaths everywhere in the continent, and a clear small excess starting with the vaccines in early 2021 and persisting.

      • Oddys says:

        Edit: It is ages 15-44, 45-64 and 65-74 which show significantly increased mortality for 2021 on euromomo.eu

        Sweden only show 18-65 in the preliminary statistics, but no significant increase there.

    • Mado says:

      Many people I know have become ill with flu-like symptoms lasting up to three days, after their booster shot. Not serious, not notifiable, but very unpleasant. Now imagine if we had to have a booster every three months. We would be sure to spend three days every three months suffering from fever, deep fatigue, sore throats…
      This is one reason why I have chosen not to get the booster. I figure at my age, weight and general state of good health, I’d get sicker from the booster than from omicron.

      • Ed says:

        exactly, same for me

      • Mike Roberts says:

        it wouldn’t be everyone suffering for three days every three months. As we’ve read from earlier comments, side-effects are rare or short. I had 24 hours of yukkiness from the second dose but I know of only one other person who had an apparent effect from either dose. It’s rare.

        • Sam says:

          Yes but the long term effects from putting your immune system in this heightened state of alert cannot be good. I just don’t think that getting these vaccines long term is a good thing.

          • Mike Roberts says:

            We get a lot of vaccinations in our lives, why would this be any worse? Our bodies are probably continually fighting off pathogens, the vaccinations don’t add much more load, do they?

            • Lidia17 says:

              Nobody has every gotten vaccinations every three months, Mike. You’re not even a very bright troll.

              If you have had mumps, they don’t say to you, hey, get a mumps vaccine anyway, and -by the way- you have to get another mumps vaccine in six weeks, and then six weeks after that, until you are dead.

              This has never happened in the history of ever, and all for a disease so terrible that .04% of the population might die.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I got a yellow fever vaccine and one for tetanus a few years ago… because those are fully tested for both short and long term side effects…

              I prefer not to take vaccines that were invented in less than a year and have not been tested .. call me crazy I guess… some might even call me a MOREON for not taking the covid ‘vaccine’…

            • Lidia17 says:

              Never mind, Mike.

              It’s clear that “there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.”

              The case is closed!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              mike’s Greatest Hits

              We get a lot of vaccinations in our lives, why would this be any worse? Our bodies are probably continually fighting off pathogens, the vaccinations don’t add much more load, do they?

              “there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.”

              Word association …. mike:

              buffoon clown imbecile etc…

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Possibly the stoooopidest comment ever to appear on OFW… it’s so stooopid that it’s an insult to the word stoooopid to call it that…

              We probably should make up a new word for this

            • Tim Groves says:

              I swear I only changed one word of this lyric. Guess which one.

              I’ve got to use her

              Every time I feel vaccination
              I just can’t stand still, I’ve got to use her
              Every time I think of what she put me through, dear
              Vaccination moves, sweeping near me
              Still, I take ya

              (Vaccination) vaccination
              (Vaccination) vaccination
              (Sho’nuff) vaccination
              (Takes a part of me) takes a part of me
              (Can a heartbeat) can a heartbeat
              (Live in the fever) live in the fever
              (Raging inside of me?)
              (Vaccination) vaccination
              (Oh, yeah) oh, yeah
              (Takes a part of me) takes a part of me
              (I can’t help it) I can’t help it
              (I’ve got to use her) I’ve got to use her
              (Every time) vaccination comes around
              Ooh
              (Vaccination)

              Your soul is calling like when I’m walking
              Seems that everywhere I turn I hope you’re waiting for me
              I know that people think that I’m a little crazy
              Ooh, but pleasure seeks this thing,
              I think I like vaccination
              Still, I take ya

              (Vaccination) vaccination
              (Sho’nuff) vaccination
              (Takes a part of me) come on, come on, come on, come on
              (Can a heartbeat) can my heartbeat
              (Live in the fever) live in the fever
              (Raging inside of me?) raging inside of me?
              (Vaccination) vaccination
              (Oh, yeah) oh, yeah
              (Takes a part of me) come on, come on, come on, come on
              (I can’t help it) I can’t help it
              (I’ve got to use her) I’ve got to
              (Every time) every time
              Vaccination comes around

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You could sell that to Jutin Bieber for millions…

    • Thierry says:

      About your first point:
      a few unexplained deaths in my family in law including 2 men under 40.
      Some cardiac problems after the second jab. (at least two colleagues)
      At least one fully vaccinated with booster went to hospital after catching covid
      One young man going twice to hospital for “unknown reason”
      Several people who suffered from serious disease after the second jab but they will have the third anyway.
      The local newspapers report several deaths of young persons without telling the cause of death.
      Strange times.

      • Thierry says:

        I would add a case of herpes and few cases of ordinary diseases that make me think of immunodeficiency syndrome but not sure, yet.

    • Regarding the bad effects, I think that they are disproportionately affecting the obese and those with many co-morbidities. The US “stands out” in terms of share obese and share with co-morbidities. Therefore, the US tends to get more bad outcomes. Europe has fewer, but still a lot of people who are obese and have co-morbidities. Southeast Asia, where you are located, likely has people with lower BMI’s and higher vitamin D levels.

      In an earlier comment you said, “In my country, SINOVAC is used here and it is supposedly a deactivated virus.”

      So I am not certain that we are talking an “apples to apples” comparison with the US and Europe.

  13. hillcountry says:

    EU MEPs call for an end to lockdowns and discrimination against unvaccinated

    https://www.thecountersignal.com/news/eu-mepscall-for-an-end-to-lockdowns-and-discrimintation

  14. hillcountry says:

    https://www.thecountersignal.com/news/truckers-rise-up

    Lots of trucker tweets from Canada and commentary on the situation.

    • This sounds like a way to make Trudeau unpopular:

      The recent mandate set out by Trudeau is forcing all unvaccinated Canadian truckers to quarantine for 15 days upon returning to Canada, making their jobs all but impossible to do. Moreover, American truckers who deliver everything from food to medical supplies to manufacturing goods are being outright denied entry.

  15. hillcountry says:

    Tom McClellan has some interesting charts here and an old Richard Russell story. Trouble on the liquidity-horizon.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan012022.html

    • I think of the Advances and Declines in Bond Closed End Funds as measuring interest rate changes. Higher interest rates are likely to lead to lower Bond Closed End Fund prices, those a “Decline.” Eventually, higher interest rates are likely to lead to lower stock market prices, but perhaps not immediately. So that is one of the effects being measured.

      There may also be a liquidity issue involved. With rising interest rate, companies of all kinds will be less eager to borrow. The higher interest rates companies of all kinds have to pay will negatively affect cash flow. Also, companies such as insurance companies and banks will find their net worth adversely affect, if bonds are carried at “market price.” In fact, if the interest rate rises, and the the price of such a bond goes down, there will be a “realized loss” on the sale of each bond, even if the bonds can be carried at amortized cost.

      Flattening or decline in the price of Bond Closed End Funds is a very bad sign, since it indicates higher interest rates. It just seems to affect bonds before stocks. Hope springs eternal for stocks.

  16. hillcountry says:

    found this single video where Chris Clugston lays out NNR depletion in under 20-minutes and why we’ve only got until 2050 as the dominant species on Earth.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdXdaIsfio8

    so if ya knew for sure that humans had maybe 30-years max and no way out how would that change the way you looked at life? I’m starting to see my view changing. And then there’s the thing where if it’s 30, then it’s probably more likely 20 or even less in reality. But nevertheless, it’s hard to picture such a rapid decline, although not so hard to visualize the 1001-ways the brakes will be applied – risking an even earlier spin-out. Maybe the appropriate Pascal’s Wager on it is to reach whatever certainty is sufficient that utter-collapse is pretty much at hand and then just walk-away from staring into the abyss and spend all one’s time doing whatever turns one on about living on this amazing planet. (and check in on OFW occasionally, of course)

    • Maybe it is human population that declines quickly, leaving resources in place.

    • Artleads says:

      The final prescription is consistent with “doing nothing.” Demolish nothing. Build nothing. If you love it you’ll be able to change what’s already here in a beneficial way. If you don’t love it, all you can do otherwise is destroy it and create some unaffordable “new” thing.

  17. JonF says:

    Big tech is viewed now, by many, as the evil empire. This wasn’t always the case…go back 10-12 years….the stupendous success of the likes of Apple, Youtube, Paypal, Ebay, Amazon, Google and Facebook, between 2000 and 2010….these companies helped create a new digital universe….and minted some new billionaires in the process….

    The upshot of this….Technology is the Answer!….A sort of tech-utopianism infected the thinking of movers and shakers everywhere…..

    2010s saw the emergence of the next wave of “tech”….”disruption” was the meme….but diminishing returns were already setting in….Tesla, WeWork, Theranos, Uber, Spotify, Netflix…..barely a whiff of profit….

    We are still in this tech-utopianism today….the reason I mention it, is that I expect every hare-brained tech-fix to be applied to our energy predicament…..

    Has anyone here begun to “adjust” lifestyle in preparation for the “end of more”?

    • Hubbs says:

      The internet started out as a single edged sword. Now, of course, it is a double edged sword. As much disinformation, whether actively or by omission and censorship. Has enabled fiat currency to become supercharged in its ability to extract wealth via “financialization,” with trillions moving in a second.

      Me? I just got back from my 2nd out of 3 truckloads of stuff moved from western NC back to the coast. Goodbye increasing rents of $1,300 plus 620 /month storage fees here and incredible congestion and overdevelopment from northern and eastern flight pouring in and back to my vacant medical office that can neither be sold or rented, but at least is fully paid for.

      The previous hospital administrator who ran the hospital from $40 million in the green when she arrived in 2000 was escorted out under police guard in 2012 after leaving a hospital that could not be sold, only leased. She wasted $40 million in a grandiose building spree, as I had predicted, but my warning was ignored by all my colleagues. I even stood up at the quarterly staff meeting in 2011 before I left and told the administrator to stay and hear what I had to say: “Sharon Tanner, you should resign immediately.”

      Now the hospital leaser, Sentara out of Norfolk, VA and which makes an obscene amount of money as it rips off the public, has money to waste and build a brand new 82 bed hospital and office complex only 6 miles away in the new section of sprawl- scheduled for completion in 2024. So now all the doctors’ offices and the old 182 bed Albemarle Hospital will likely become section 8 housing- not luxury condos as the politicians try to spin it.The politicians will be happy for any immediate additional government infusion of money and votes – regardless of the long term consequences. Fortunately, my office is on the main route 17 and not part of the Professional Park.

      So I arrived at the office which has no power and therefore no heat. My 16 oz propane cannisters and Mr Heater buddy and the one burner propane cooker I brought proved invaluable in the freeze and snow, as was the fully charged 100 A Hr battery/inverter. (can be charged with solar panels- if the sun is shining LOL!) I was thus able to cook and recharge my computer, flashlight and cell phone. I kept toasty warm in my 0 degree rated sleeping bag.

      I now think I am going to slowly start acquiring 20 lb Propane grill sized tanks- not too big and can hand carry, but from which I can transfer propane to 16 oz bottles. No, propane is not as energy dense as gasoline, but it stores indefinitely, even better than ammo or freezed dried Mountain House food. (30 yrs. I met a nice young couple with a 6 month old baby at Wal Mart . He said he works at Lowes, but was looking everywhere 16 oz propane cannisters. None to be found anywhere, he said. I clued him in how with an adaptor he could transfer propane from the standard 20 lb tank to the 16 oz ones. I told him to check on You Tube how to do it because he didn’t want to buy the transfer connector which Wal Mart had right there which I showed him. I guess he wanted to be sure what I told him would work.

      Anyway, I was thinking what happens when the electricity and the natural gas go out? I have two rocket stoves which I could keep going using all the twigs and branches that wind up at my building for low intensity cooking, I guess. The big thing is to start pressure cooking and canning while there is still convenient cheap energy to do so. It’s bad enough having to find food but having to find firewood to cook it adds insult to injury. Having food already cooked in the canning process means only a little heat is require to warm it.
      Since I have two cars , I had to ride the Greyhound bus back across the state-a 24 hour trip which I can drive in 6. I hadn’t ridden one since I was in college. Norfolk to Richmond was 75 %full. Otherwise the buses were 10- 25% full only.
      As Bob Dylan said in his famous song “Like a Rolling Stone,” “now you don’t act so proud, now you don’t talk so loud, about having to be scrounging for your next meal. How does it feel?” I had thought about Simon and Garfunkel’s “The Only Living Boy in NY” opening line “Tom, get your plane ride on time…” ( very nice bass rift on that song BTW) but for the first time in decades I wasn’t flying here in the US. Got me thinking. Our society, energy, food, cold, transportation. Where are we heading? Not very far in our EVs, which I think is part of a deliberate strategy by our owners to further control us- not just through medical passports and digital bank accounts but through actual limited travel range.

      • JonF says:

        I agree re: internet/financialization….during the Spring 2020 lockdown, the commercial property sector got a glimpse of what life will be like post-energy cliff…..in my area of the UK, student accommodation has been the post-GFC boom sector…..seems like a ponzi to me….10-20 storey blocks have sprung up like crazy in the 2 local cities…..debt to build it, debt to rent it….

        Wants vs Needs? Needs seem much fewer than wants…but does our material world really deliver our needs? For example, stable family life, meaningful work, nutritious food, sound money? We certainly have comfort and convenience….

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Thanks for sharing your story, Hubbs, good luck in your next adventure in life. Seems there is across the board of “ripping off the public” going on now and as Gail has expressed will not be paid because of too many promises that can’t be kept.
        Find it remarkable this BAU, for us at least, keeps afloat!
        Saw a YouTube video of a man in Lebanon that had $80,000;dollars in their banking system…within weeks all gone from capital controls and inflation
        Suppose that’s what’s next for most

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Don’t worry about cooking … there will be nothing to cook once BAU.

        You might want to get one of those grills that they do whole pigs on … perfect size for roast a decent sized child.

    • Artleads says:

      Adjusting thinking anyway…

      ENERGY SEEN THROUGH THE LENS OF HISTORIC PRESERVATION

      It is said that we can’t save all historic buildings, but I am wondering why. At present, it’s extraordinarily difficult to save even one building, the procedure for which requires hard- or impossible-to-find documentation about its claim to special historical significance. On the other hand, criteria enabling preservation of all buildings might include a broader view of historical significance–going beyond the biases of a given era as to what is preservation-worthy to including the totality of eras, classes, aesthetical ideals…laying the foundation for the comprehensive historical and epistemological assessment of a community as a whole.

      So why would we not benefit from a model of blanket preservation?

      One possible answer I’ve heard is that it is inevitable for humans to dissipate energy…dissipating energy is what people do. Is it? A human supposedly has certain drives and needs that dissipate energy. But are there inevitable needs and drives on one hand, and culturally driven “needs and drives” that are NOT inevitable on the other? How do you compare the need and drive of a jet setter to the needs and drives of a monk? If the monk has been growing food trees all along at the monastery, as opposed to the jet setter blowing jet fuel into the air over the same period, how can you speak of their respective energy dissipation in the same terms?

      Blanket preservation, energy-wise, would be akin to monastic behavior, and would undoubtedly conserve the major share of energy that now goes into demolition-based land development.

      Compared with raw, material energy like oil and gas, embedded energy implied by monastic behavior might be less than one percent of total energy currently used. It could be so weak as to not be worth bothering with. But ought it not to be more powerful the more concentrated it is? And ought it not be more concentrated the more blanket prescriptions there are for wholistic preservation? Won’t that lessen the dissipation of energy that it takes to save one individual building at a time along with simultaneously demolishing the store of embedded energy in existing infrastructure?

      • JonF says:

        You could view energy dissipation as a human trait, unevenly distributed amongst the population….for argument’s sake, let’s say it follows a normal distribution….then the monk is under the left tail of the curve and the jet-setter is under the right tail….

        I work in the building game….if modern agriculture is converting fossil fuel into food….then modern construction is converting fossil fuels into buildings….preservation will be pretty easy post-seneca…

      • JonF says:

        I identify with the thinking adjustment…..I now view hot showers and central heating as luxuries!….not to be taken for granted….

        • Artleads says:

          So do I re the showers and heating. But I don’t only see those as inevitably leading to a post energy cliff. I see this more as a Wile E. Coyote moment where we’ve already gone off a cliff but are stuck in the moment before we fall. What in Wile E. Coyote imagery takes a split second could take years in our calculation. Or at least it will be possible for the masses of us to harbor the illusion that life is proceeding normally for some time. Were we not so convinced of this OUR Wile E. Coyote moment might be somewhat reversible toward some sort of outcropping of (unrecognized and unconcentrated) embedded energy system.

          The thing that’s keeping us stuck in the illusion of normalcy might well be embedded energy. (In a very broad sense, embedded energy is the only energy we have.) Fossil fuel (FF) infrastructure, storage and other ff systems (that are under appreciated) are elaborate, based on the fury of the physical and mental investment in them from the past.

          My recommendation re preservation is to protect and optimize that outcropping while we may. The way to do that is to ignore the social and political pressure to demolish and build. So that would be difficult to do, but if there was ever a time to do it that would be now.

          • Artleads says:

            “Fossil fuel (FF) infrastructure, storage and other ff systems (that are under appreciated) are elaborate, based on the fury of the physical and mental investment in them from the past.”

            So the very extravagance that got us into this mess could provide the oversupply of embedded energy to help us hold on longer.

            • embedded energy usually involves a manufactured structure of some kind–a house, power station, plane–even a common brick is a unit of embedded energy.

              but embedded energy cannot be utilised without additional input of of energy itself, from another source.

              the most complex machine, built necessarily to close tolerances, can and will fail when its smallest and insignificant component fails.
              it will also fail when its energy source fail

              take some time out to listen to this

            • Artleads says:

              What I’m saying is that the very fossil fuels required to “activate” embedded energy are themself embedded on a different level. New fossil fuel production seems to be losing investment, signifying that the existing supplies and supply means of FFs are largely from the past.

            • Artleads says:

              Steve St. Angelo video is excellent, and would be hard to improve upon.

            • its an hour long—i dont usually last that long on youtubes, but it was rivetting stuff

            • Just came upon concept of downcycling in a reference to a video link regarding critical mineral depletion in finite world

              https://www.google.com/books/edition/Thanatia_The_Destiny_Of_The_Earth_s_Mine/EVUCCwAAQBAJ?hl=en

              once in an degrowth economy where demand cannot be met – downcycling – recycling something but only do so if end product is something useful but of lesser value otherwise does not make sense (have add too much energy to up-cycle)

              here is first link on quick search or another conception of concept:

              https://www.oberk.com/packaging-crash-course/downcycling-temp

  18. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/breck-denny-actor-and-groundlings-comic-dead-at-34-he-will-be-missed-immensely/ar-AAT1w8x?ocid=msedgntp

    dead at 34.

    “He died of a rare spontaneous splenic artery rupture.”

    quite interesting that there was an autopsy.

    I wonder what may have CAUSED this rare rupture.

    does anyone really buy into that it was truly “spontaneous”?

    next!

  19. MG says:

    We could divide the countries according the hunters and the gatherers:

    Cold countries = hunters
    Warm countries = gatherers
    Dry countries = hunters
    Humid countries = gatherers

    The presence of water is the decisive element for gathering. Too cold means ice, i.e. no water, too dry means high evaporation, i.e. no water, too. Such clmt means that only hunting is possible, as no plants survive too cold and too dry clmt.

    That way e.g. Canada and Russia are the hunters countries, while the USA is the gatherers country.

    https://youtu.be/q4rv44pC_0Y

    • Good point. I have heard that in cold countries, the population was able to keep food through the winter by eating meat from their herds. There wasn’t a need to store up as much other food.

      A great deal more vegetable food can be grown in warm – wet climates. Often, it can be grown and eaten year-around. Thus, there is less need for storages, and less need for animals who eat huge amounts, relative to the number of calories they produce for human consumption.

      In cold climates, humans have discovered that grains are ideal for storage. They are also easy for taxing. Governments have particularly grown up in countries where grain is grown. The countries especially eat grains and meat. See “Against the Grain,” a 2018 book book by James C. Scott.

  20. hillcountry says:

    Anyone here reading Markov? This is a really good elucidation of what’s wrong with these inoculations and the post is interspersed with wickedly sardonic dismissals of the mental-midgets we have dinking with Mother Nature and her almost unfathomable human immune system. There’s a rant about Substack Paywalls before you get to the good stuff.

    https://hiddenmarkov.substack.com/p/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-blogstack/comments

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Pity the poor vaxxers who have been lied to and in their gullible way, absorbed the deceptions as fact. To break the spell, they will need to have their own breakthrough crises and their own realization that they have been played by TPTB.”

      wooooooo!!!!!!!

      vaccines have NEGATIVE efficacy, sukckers!

      1. there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine.

      2. there never ever will be.

  21. MG says:

    The various scenarios of the rising data centers electricity consumption:

    Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921003019

    • I can believe that data center electricity requirements will rise hugely in the future, if the world economy continues to “Stick together.” Think of all of the Zoom videos that are being recorded and stored, for example.

  22. Tim Groves says:

    Dr. Roger Hodkinson does not mince words “When that penny starts to drop, the general public are going to be revolted!” Watch. Two minutes of “I told you so!”

    Also, interviewer. Laura Lynn Tyler Thompson is a balm for the eyes. She could have worked behind the cosmetic counter at Boots.

    https://twitter.com/LauraLynnTT/status/1483965269357694976

  23. Tim Groves says:

    This is two weeks old but remains relevant and, IMHO, essential listening. Neil Oliver has noticed a pattern: World leaders are reading from the same script and they are telling us that the unvaccinated are next door to idiots, racists and misogynists.

    “Once you notice it; that is to say, the repeating pattern, the regurgitating of seemingly rehearsed words shoe-horned awkwardly into every public utterance; you can never again overlook it. What has actually formed, at least it seems to me, is a pattern made of leaders and prominent figures, carefully and obediently repeating the same message, as though singing in a choir and harmonizing with one another.”

  24. Nigel Goddard says:

    I presume you’re aware of the newish heat/cool storage solutions based on latent heat of solid-state phase change, eg Sunamp? Deployed widely in homes and businesses together with bidirectional heat pumps, couldn’t the SERL substantially address the intermittency problems of wind and solar?

    • These kinds of ‘solutions’ don’t do nearly enough. Our big problem is a summer to winter storage problem. We don’t have enough heat in winter. Solutions of the type you mention do not solve this need.

      Also, the quantity of materials required to add the quantity of storage needed start becoming astronomical, even for the short-term.

    • drb says:

      Do you know what the latent heat is for these things? It sounds like something that could flatten the curve for day-night effects.

    • DJ says:

      Is that anything other than a fancy way of overheating the building during low prices and underheating during high?

  25. Yoshua says:

    Thx Gail! It looks like we are at some kind of energy plateau?

    The geopolitical focus today is on Ukraine. For some reason Ukraine’s GDP grows with higher energy prices, even though Ukraine is an energy importer. They seem to break the law of physics.

    • Bobby says:

      TPTB seem to want the MSM to keep the geopolitical focus this region and its ‘useful’ dark history. Maybe it’s radiation from Chernobyl helping break the Law Of Physics Or just that they are real good at stealing NG.. Ukrainian has very deep soils too, 10m in places, so it is worth something to body. It’s proximity to Russia is no coincidence, sadly it looks like the Cold War never really ended although the ROTW had hoped.

    • I am afraid I don’t really know too much about the Ukraine’s GDP situation. I notice that Ukraine’s GDP was very low in 2014 to 2018; now it seems to be rebounding, at least according to some forecasts. The World Bank says,

      Ukraine has experienced acute political, security, and economic challenges during the past seven years. Since the “Maidan” uprising in February 2014, the country has witnessed several momentous events, including the outbreak of conflict in eastern Ukraine. From 2014 until 2019, the Government undertook key reforms, including: carrying out significant fiscal consolidation, moving to a flexible exchange rate, reforming energy tariffs and social assistance, enhancing the transparency of public procurement, simplifying business regulations, stabilizing and restructuring the banking sector, moving forward on health and pension reforms, and establishing anti-corruption agencies.

      I know Ukraine grows a lot of wheat for export. I recently discovered that there are computer programmers in Ukraine that work on teams with programmers from other countries. So Ukraine may be selling more “services,” like computer programming, abroad.

      I found this chart comparing Ukraine to several other countries. In a sense, it has not been doing very well, compared to all of the others.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine#/media/File:GDP_PPP_per_capita_CIS.svg

  26. just watched ‘the Crucible’ , by Arthur Miller on uk tv

    it should be mandatory viewing for all the conspiracy theory mongers out there

    • DB says:

      You are exactly right, Norman. It’s a story of government officials
      (judges) and a mob (majority of a community) who persecute a minority with no rational basis. A good parable for today, when the government and the mob persecute the unvaccinated, on a similarly anti-factual basis.

    • Tim Groves says:

      You love those mandates, don’t you Norman?

      Reminds you of back when you were a headmaster.

  27. Foolish Fitz says:

    So, after 2 odd years, the killer pandemic has claimed a historically pathetic amount in England and Wales, but very much confirmed that most will believe the screen before their own eyes.

    https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathsandautopsiesfeb2020todec2021&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjElsvk88P1AhVPT8AKHSybBWcQFnoECAIQAg&usg=AOvVaw3w_rElBwhukl9XBcJws-mp

    There has been no pandemic in the ok last 2-3 years outside of the screen.

    Could we stop playing the game now?

    • Foolish Fitz says:

      I quite like this bloke.
      He was all for the idiocy (because the screen said so), so it’s amusing watching the reality hit and it’s been very slow for him.
      That said, he’s not trying to deny it (saving any credibility?).

      https://youtu.be/9UHvwWWcjYw

      If this appears before my other comment(moderation) his numbers, although shocking are still ridiculously high and he leaves so much unsaid, given the reality that the figures reveal.

      • John Campbell talks about the new death statistics for the England and Wales, relating to deaths that came for people with no co-morbidities. The number of these deaths is much lower than many people thought. The average age of those who die without co-morbidities is very high, something like 81 or 82 years old.

        I suppose the question I would have would be, “How many of the people of the general population have co-morbidities?” If it is very high, say 95%, then having a low percentage dying of COVID, without co-morbidities, wouldn’t mean very much. I suppose there is no way to figure this out.

        • Foolish Fitz says:

          ” I suppose there is no way to figure this out”

          At the very beginning they changed the procedure for recording deaths, from a well understood system, to a complete joke. They done that for a reason and it wasn’t an honest one.

          There seems to be rising numbers taking legal action against this fraudulent recording of death certificates, so hopefully people will at least be made aware that the rules were changed to deceive.

  28. Student says:

    And please find some news from the new republic of bananas

    From the 1st of Feb. in Italy you need a green pass also to buy nails at the hardware store…

    …tabaccai, librerie, negozi di giocattoli, cartolerie, lavanderie, ferramenta (hardware store)… and many others stores (please see) -> https://www.scattidigusto.it/2022/01/21/senza-green-pass-dal-1-febbraio-si-puo-fare-solo-la-spesa-di-beni-alimentari/

    I would not be surprised if we will all need to wear underwear on the outside in the coming days:

    • Jane says:

      This isn’t meant as a reply but I don’t see another option to post a comment.
      This news out of Massachusetts is kind of interesting.
      https://www.wbur.org/news/2022/01/11/offshore-wind-massachusetts-legislation-price-cap

      I don’t see how this rosy view is possible:
      “As we look to the next phase of our offshore wind strategy, this legislation would also ensure that Massachusetts remains on the leading edge of offshore wind policy in the U.S. … while continuing to ensure that the pricing that’s available saves ratepayers money,”
      Baker said.”

      How can this save rate payers money? Seems like Baker is most interested in keeping Mass on the leading edge of offshore wind policy, for whatever political or PR reasons. Not for actually solving any problems or ensuring lower rates for Mass residents. If he were interested in the latter, he would surely be pushing publicly owned utilities, not megaprojects that funnel profits to shareholders of hedge funds such as those managed by the Vineyard Wind owners, Copenhagen Infrastructure Projects and Avingrad.

      • (By the way, to start a new string of comments, you need to scroll way to the bottom of the page, where there is a box for new comments.)

        In response to your comment, I agree that offshore wind doesn’t make any sense for Massachusetts. The wind is still entirely too variable to dependable. It is very high cost to build, maintain, and put up adequate transmission lines for. It likely does not have a long life expectancy, because it will need repairs and parts from around the world. Repairing these devices requires helicopters and specialized ships. But people want a “happily ever after” ending, and this is part of it.

    • The world is becoming stranger and stranger. Anything to keep some people at home and use less oil and other fossil fuels.

      • my typical mileage has dropped from around 12 k to around 5k pa.

        there is no ‘they’ keeping us at home.

        there has been less to draw us away from home. holidays have been short and relatively close to home. and very pleasant.

        distance holidays , say 2k/6k miles, have been impossible, or at best difficult—foreign travel,—not worth the hassle.

        this is overall circumstance, not some ‘grand plan’ to control me—though from a prearranged standpoint–it could easily be seen as such.

        it isn’t.

        but if i and millions like me dont consume/convert fossil fuels, then yes, fuels will stay in the ground, conserved.
        But the non use of fuels will collapse the world economic system, and make oil coal and gas unusable.–because no means will exist by which they can be utilised for ‘profit’.

        • HerbHere says:

          of course its a grand plan. Haven’t you been paying attention?

          • Tim Groves says:

            Norman doesn’t realize that “not worth the hassle” is a major plank of the grand strategy to control him.

            When researchers do experiments with Mice in mazes with various obstacles and pieces of cheese, they find that the more hassle the mice are subjected to in order to overcome the obstacles, the less likely they are to reach the cheese.

          • and who—specifically—is initiating this ‘grand plan’?

            and when the grand plan is complete

            just what benefit will ‘they’ derive from it?

            and please—-not the ”they will have the world to themselves” nuttery

            • Lidia17 says:

              Norman, here’s just one example:

              Recently, I came across a modern reference to a man named Michael Ledeen. This struck me as interesting, since I hadn’t come across the name in decades. I knew of him from back in my lefty anti-Bush days: the era of Valerie Plame and the forged “yellowcake” documents from Niger, brokered by the shadowy-yet-influential intelligence critter Ledeen in order to justify the Iraq war(s). Ledeen is still alive, just like that other war criminal Kissinger is still alive, and Eliot Abrams is still alive, and they are all still extremely busy making mischief.

              Now, people like Mike Pompeo and Nancy Pelosi are vocal in their support of Israel over the US. The recent wars in the ME, and their fixation with destroying Iran comes from somewhere. Trump was elected, and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Then he assassinated Sulemaini (sp?).

              Ledeen is an extreme Zionist neocon who wants to see the rebuilding of the Third Temple in Jerusalem. This is a necessary condition for their version of the Apocalypse, a condition that Christian Zionists are equally eager to see fulfilled (their respective storylines naturally diverging after that point). Extremely wealthy messianic jews and CZs have put a lot of $$ behind this.

              ========
              What I realized is that it doesn’t matter if you don’t believe something.. you still have to contend with those who *do* believe it, so we have to contend with the global machinations of messianic supremacist jews whether we like it or not.

              In a similar vein, we are forced to contend with the transhumanists (Gates, Musk, Thiel, Kurzweil, etc.) whose belief is very real and very sincere, I can assure you. It doesn’t matter whether they are wrong, just like it doesn’t matter that your crackhead neighbor armed with a knife, who thinks you owe him money, is wrong… You still have to contend with his delusions, which to him are 100% real.

              ===
              Recently, Michael Ledeen has co-written a 2016 book by General Michael Flynn (Trump’s ex National Security Advisor, I think his title was). Ledeen’s daughter is now taking over his role as unaccountable Deep State string-puller:
              https://www.theamericanconservative.com/state-of-the-union/the-curious-ascension-of-simone-ledeen/

              I know you very likely won’t want to pull on this string, Norm, but happy red-pilling to those who do!

            • there will always be those who seek to profit from the adversity of others—this is a common human trait.
              Just as there are people who genuinely try to alleviate distress in others.

              this can go into extreme nuttiness–made all the worse if sufficient cash is available to bankroll it.

              adding ‘religion’ to a ’cause’ is a sure fire way of attracting crazies–look at Afghanisatan right now–religious nutters starving their people to death to extract money. When the money is handed over–you can be sure the Afghan people will still be left starving

              ‘supporting israel (or whatever) is just a a way of lending credence whatever agenda is on the table at the time

              That ‘agenda’ is always about profit for ‘self’—anything else is window dressing

              the individual concerned will let it run as far and as fast as is possible—a long term gamble if you like.–nothing matters except ‘self’.

              Trump as a perfect example—runs for POTUS as a publicity stunt, then finds that 8om Americans are as crazy as he is. Gathers jesusfreaks around his desk, smirking at their gullibility, ‘supporting Israel etc etc) while using public office to make money. Their beliefs were very real too, if misguided.
              while Trump is still ‘making mischief’

              as i see it, the danger lies in the USA sliding into dictatorship because no other option offers a solution to the problems looming in the future. I think there’s a real danger of that happening, and people will embrace it. Someone like Flynn would eagerly lead it,
              I understand a high percentage of Americans think ‘authoritarian rule’ would be a ‘good thing”

              sounds familiar?

              the unthinking masses might hold the fantasy that it will solve the problems, but those leading the seek only to loot the country and its assets. Putin I believe is worth $40 bn—where did that come from if not loot?

              warfare has always been to route to vast profit–it diverts the nations resources into the hands of the financiers. millions of dead soldiers are a minor addition on the debit column–profit is everything.

      • Student says:

        Thank you Gail for your comment.
        I’m convinced that this stupid rules about covid will end only when a bigger disaster will make useless the real objective these rules have been formulated for, that is reduce consumes and keep people at home..
        Kind regards

    • drb says:

      Student, can you update us on the string of suspicious deaths in Italy just in the last week, there was magistrato Ferraro, medical researcher Viscardi (?), and one of his colleagues, although the colleague could have been in Spain. MHO: those who mention nanoparticles, like Nauck and Viscardi, soon die. Van den Bossche is alive. I conclude that the real payload is graphene.

      • Student says:

        Hello drb, it is full of smoke and mirrors, I cannot update with reliable information at the moment.

  29. Student says:

    The Doctor in charge of the vax hub in Corigliano suddenly dies for a heart attack.

    https://www.corrieredellacalabria.it/2022/01/21/corigliano-rossano-il-responsabile-dellhub-vaccinale-muore-per-un-malore/

  30. cassandraclub says:

    Turkey going over the edge pretty soon now.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-gas-flow-turkey-cut-by-technical-failure-officials-2022-01-20/

    The “technical failure” is just an excuse for the underlying dynamics. We’ve heard that one before. Due to drought the hydro-electric capacity is diminished. After 2 years with less tourists Turkey is running low on foreign exchange reserves to pay for imported gas, especially now that prices have gone ballistic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaqgEyeVN7Y

    • Not a big surprise, given the stories we have been reading recently about how poorly Turkey is do. Fewer tourists and low hydroelectric production would add to the problems. Turkey is a big natural gas importer, but it can’t afford the gas it is buying.

  31. Lastcall says:

    ‘While many in America and Great Britain could understand and even commiserate with Jewish emotions, many more were initially aghast by the flaming rhetoric and the murderous cries for extermination of innocent and guilty alike. Nevertheless, the sheer weight and persistence of the propaganda, both subtle and overt, in film, radio, books, magazines, and newspapers, gradually worked its way into the thoughts and attitudes of the public mainstream. Eventually, in the minds of a sizable percentage of Americans and Britons, little distinction was drawn between killing a Nazi soldier and killing a German child.’

    https://library.abundanthope.org/index_htm_files/Hellstorm%20The%20Death%20of%20Nazi%20Germany%201944-1947%20by%20Thomas%20Goodrich.pdf

    Sound familiar?

  32. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    ‘If I Die, I Die’: Meat Loaf Spurned COVID Rules Before Death
    Jamie Ross
    Fri, January 21, 2022, 3:24 AM·3 min read
    Theatrical rock superstar Meat Loaf, whose Bat Out of Hell is one of the bestselling albums of all time, has died at the age of 74. Reports say the singer and actor had recently fallen sick with COVID-19.

    In an emotional statement posted to Facebook early Friday, the performer’s family said he was with his wife when he died and had said his final goodbyes to his two daughters in the past 24 hours. The star sold 100 million albums in his five-decade career and starred in movies including Fight Club, The Rocky Horror Picture Show, and Wayne’s World, and did a stint on Donald Trump’s Celebrity Apprentice reality-TV show.

    “We know how much he meant to so many of you and we truly appreciate all of the love and support as we move through this time of grief in losing such an inspiring artist and beautiful man,” the family wrote in its announcement. “From his heart to your souls… don’t ever stop rocking!”

    Speaking to The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in August last year, he told the interviewer “I hug people in the middle of COVID,” and said: “I understood stopping life for a little while, but they cannot continue to stop life because of politics. And right now they’re stopping because of politics.”

    The singer went on to complain about being asked to wear a mask on a plane, stating that he didn’t believe paper masks were as good at N95s at stopping the coronavirus from spreading. “We had to go on the airplane with the paper masks and then on the way back, we got a Nazi: ‘Get your mask on now!’ They’re power-mad now,” he told the paper.

    After the interviewer replied “Oh, God. We’re being controlled by everybody,” the singer responded ominously: “Yeah, I know. But not me. If I die, I die, but I’m not going to be controlled.”

    No more meat loaf for you bro

    • Tim Groves says:

      TMZ reported he died of COVID but cited anonymous sources. And Meatloaf flirted with vegetarianism and even veganism for a while. And he was not the healthiest of people, with nowhere near Norman’s athletic prowess or body mass index. On top of that, we don’t even know if he was jabbed once, twice or even thrice. At least, I was unable to obtain that info online.

    • Ed says:

      Is this because
      1) they feel it is harmful
      2) they do not get paid enough
      3) it generates too much negative feedback

      • Tim Groves says:

        Ostensibly, none of the above.

        They say they want to concentrate on providing primary care:

        “Lichfield Primary Care Network has delivered approximately 45,000 vaccinations. This vital work was in addition to our day to day activities.

        “This task has been undertaken by practice staff, additional clinical staff who had recently left or retired and volunteers.

        “Providing and conducting this additional service has increased the workloads of all staff and placed extra pressure on them.

        “The administration of vaccines began in earnest in January 2021 and has been unrelenting for the past 12 months – going forward this is not sustainable on a reactive and unplanned basis.”

        As to the real reason, one can only speculate at this point. Fear of lawsuits down the road? Fear of losing a large percentage of their client base to vaccine-related adverse outcomes? Fear of being hung from lampposts? Conscience bothering them? Or—the reason they gave—they want to get back to practicing real medicine again?

        For those who haven’t heard of it, Lichfield is a cathedral city and civil parish in Staffordshire, England, a bit north of Birmingham and largely rural community of just over 100,000 people of which 32,000 live in the city. It is 92% white folk including a lot of refugees from the big cities, and is geographically close to the center of the UK.

  33. Mirror on the wall says:

    The Westminster parties are floating intentions to change the parliamentary system in NI in view of the prospect of Sinn Fein getting the most votes of any party and so gaining the post of first minister for the first time. SF has always been happy to take the post of deputy first minister to date, unionists do not like the idea of SF gaining the first position, and Westminster now prepares to change the system to avoid that.

    I am not sure whether the unionists and Westminster can see themselves, and how they look to the rest of the world. It is clear that they see Irish ‘Catholics’ as second class citizens in the north of Ireland, whose role is at best to be second class and second placed. UK is supposed to be a modern, non-sectarian country, and look at the state of this. The arrogance is just unbelievable.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uk-government-northern-ireland-labour-prime-minister-david-lynch-b1996644.html

    > UK Government to discuss Northern Ireland first ministers’ roles after elections

    Stormont elections take place this year on May 5.

    The Government will speak to political parties in Northern Ireland after Assembly elections this year about the possibility of reforming the roles of the first minister and deputy first minister.

    In the Lords, Labour peer Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick called for the Northern Ireland (Ministers, Elections, and Petitions of Concern) Bill to be amended so the two most senior leadership positions in the Assembly would be equal first ministers, rather than a leader and a deputy.

    The proposals came after ministers scrapped proposals to allow “double-jobbing”, which would allow politicians to sit as both a Member of Parliament at Westminster and a Member of the Legislative Assembly at Stormont [which would have given the DUP a ‘leg up’ in May.]

    Lady Ritchie told peers her amendment would take divisive rhetoric out of election campaigning, where political parties warn voters that their opponents, on either the unionist or nationalist side, could win power.

    Stormont elections take place this year on May 5, and campaigning is ramping up ahead of the poll.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Unlike you, Mirror, I don’t have a dog in this race. But I must state that it is totally unfair to change the system in this way at this juncture, and moreover, it is bound to cause more resentment and contribute to the mutual fear and loathing that has pervaded Ulster politics since before I was born.

      If they could make a law that for the next fifty years Catholics in NI could only Mary Protestants and vice versa, then the communities would merge and they could gleefully start persecuting the Methodists, Mormons and Jehovah’s Witnesses. That would be a sort of progress.

      • Tim Groves says:

        And if you don’t cry when you listen to Cara singing this song, you ain’t Irish!

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        It is pretty obnoxious to present the communities as the problem, to spin it as a religious conflict, and to suggest that the solution is for the British state to strip the citizens of their rights, and to basically eliminate the Irish community. That sort of imperialist mentality is not funny or clever, it is just unbelievably arrogant, and I would not recommend that you mouth off like that around the Irish.

        The problem is the partitioning of a fundamentally and structurally sectarian statelet, and the solution is already in place, the GFA, which will mean the retreat of the British State from Ireland as soon as there is a majority in NI that wants that. The statelet is liable to return to major troubles only if the BS reneges on that, in which case the international community would likely intervene and take very harsh measures against the UK.

        The solution is for the British State to get out of Ireland.

  34. Ed says:

    FE want to go in with me on my new company “Rods of the Gods”? Spent fuel rods for heating even in NZ and Australia. Google says -10C in winter you need wands of warmth.

    OK you hippy freaks will not do all out nuclear but no moving parts spent fuel rods are within the ability of even the plow haulers of NZ.

    • Bobby says:

      Lol, yes! As soon as they become available at mitre10 mega.
      Selling waste as ‘ new technology’ Lovely.
      It’s maverick stuff in an imploding economy.

      .Yahoo don’t have to worry about the radiation because of WW added lead nanoparticles nanotubes nanotech mesh! ‘This winter you can Be Warm while you die….and stay warm once you’re dead’

      • hillcountry says:

        remember the old stainless-steel hand-warmers, the ones you had to light the wick and then slide into a felt bag? how much safer these shielded rod-sections encased in lead with half-lives to die for

    • Bobby says:

      Yup I foounnd out they make great fishing luuuures, …just plop one in and Ya don’t even have to wait to catch the fish.

      Saves heaps of tiiiime

      Yaaaa don’t need a freezer for the catch anymore either, cos yaaaa just put them next to ya ‘rod’, they dry out in a couple of hours. Ya keep them there and they don’t rot no more and they always are warm!

  35. Ed says:

    On the destruction of the west. Maybe, it is not a conspiracy, maybe it is actually culture, it is actually what we want.

    https://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-353-a-conversation-with-jeffrey-tucker-of-the-brownstone-institute/#comment-667170

      • I have only had a chance to listen to a little of this podcast. Kunstler is interviewing Jeffrey Tucker. They start talking about Prof. Matthias’s Mass Formation and the strange psychology of large groups. When conditions are “right,” the thinking of the group seems to coalesce in a way that is like a mass psychosis.

        • Ed says:

          It is an hour long conversation they cover lots of topics. Jeffery is less jaded than James. Jeffery is new to the fact that life saving drugs were made illegal.

          But he has me thinking.

          For fifty years we have been taught industry is killing the planet, the people, the animals, etc…. Maybe society wants industry to end. I would guess most people do not consider the positive side of industry like food, warmth, cooling, cloths, houses, transport, etc…. They think even after bad industry is gotten rid of, food will still appear in the supermarket, electric will still come out of the plug in the wall, etc….

          • more likely the world has a form of consciousness humankind is unaware of.

            the planet has an awareness of ‘us’

            it is we who are the pestilence, the fever if you like..

            the symptom of fever is a high temperature, which remains until the fever subsides
            sometimes the host recovers, sometimes it doesn’t.

            work out the rest for yourself

            • Replenish says:

              Planetary consciousness sounds right to me.

              Thanks for the reminder that we are not in control of the situation. There is some peace in knowing that we are part of a larger story.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Sounds like superstitious evidence-free airy fairy anthropomorphic claptrap to me, Norman.

              But, first things first. Define consciousness, and then we might try to explore whether the world has the means of experiencing it.

              Definition of superstition
              1a : a belief or practice resulting from ignorance, fear of the unknown, trust in magic or chance, or a false conception of causation
              b : an irrational abject attitude of mind toward the supernatural, nature, or God resulting from superstition
              2 : a notion maintained despite evidence to the contrary

          • Thanks for the information. I think you are right about this:

            I would guess most people do not consider the positive side of industry like food, warmth, cooling, cloths, houses, transport, etc…. They think even after bad industry is gotten rid of, food will still appear in the supermarket, electric will still come out of the plug in the wall, etc….

    • drb says:

      What kind of a discussion is this? The West will be destroyed regardless, by the end of fossil fuels.

  36. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    It must be a real bummer having all the marbles and watching your mortal body age and Mister D knocking on the door

    Amazon founder and Elon Musk’s favorite punching bag Jeff Bezos is assembling a team of top scientists to assist in his dream of developing immortality technology.

    The billionaire is funneling his money into an anti-aging startup dubbed Alto Labs, which formerly launched on Wednesday. The project has recently recruited Hal Barron, formerly the chief scientific officer at the pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline, who has now been tapped as Alto Lab’s CEO.

    “I am deeply honored to have been offered this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to lead such a unique company with a transformative mission to reverse disease,” Barron said in a press release from the startup.

    Barron joins a veritable A Team of scientists tasked with defeating death, including Dr. Shinya Yamanaka, the winner of the 2012 Nobel prize in medicine for his work in stem cell research, and Jennifer Doudna, the co-winner of the 2020 Nobel prize in chemistry for her role in developing the gene-editing tool CRISPR.

    War Chest
    Along with a team of powerful scientists and researchers, the Bezos-backed startup also announced that it has secured more than $3 billion in funding at launch.

    Bezos isn’t the only uber-wealthy investor helping fund Alto Labs either. Russian-Israeli billionaire Yuri Milner is also pitching in to help develop anti-aging technology.

    At the startup’s core is their mission of achieving biological reprogramming. This is a method of essentially rejuvenating cells after they’ve matured. In theory, the cells could then do things like repair your body as it ages and even cure age-related diseases like dementia.

    Only time will tell if this billionaire-backed venture can actually help us stay young forever. If nothing else, at least we’ll learn that if all the money in the world along with a team of top scientists can’t defeat death, perhaps nothing will Jeff Bezos recruits in quest for eternal youth [

    https://futurism.com/jeff-bezos-defeat-death/amp

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hshCE693jxI

    Nobody wants to dance with Mister D

    • Christopher says:

      We mere mortals will have to be satisfied listening to what longevity scientist David Sinclair has to say:

      https://www.youtube.com/c/DavidSinclairPodcast/videos

    • Ed says:

      Too little too late. May be good for his great grand children.

    • drb says:

      I continue to be amazed at the naivete of these multi billionaires. The googlies spend billions to develop self driving cars at a time of declining gas production, and Bezos wants to fight the entropy principle. He hopes to become immortal while sitting in a chair all day. To me this is a sign that they were those chosen by the globalist mafia all along, and made it big while being not overly bright.

    • Jane says:

      “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to “defeat death” sounds like an oxymoron to me.

      • I didn’t see this link when I wrote my earlier reply, but I am afraid that using spent fuel rods have much the same issues as small nuclear reactors. They are a small add-on to the existing system.

        • doomphd says:

          i once made an inquiry about using US Navy surplus RTGs (Radioactive Thermal electic Generators) for some civilian seafloor research stations, as a remote power source. the ones in question at that time used strontium-90. they also had Pu-239 versions. i was discouraged from using even the Sr-90 versions. so you can forget using any isotope of plutonium in a non-military application. they are considered a terrorist target, even deployed on the remote seafloor. no one wants the liability.

    • This article is 1997.

      When you say, “Nuclear for residential heating. I saw this in use in Czechia,” I assume that you are saying that some of the waste heat from a full size nuclear reactor is being used to heat homes in the vicinity of the reactor, in the Czech Republic.

      Not letting “waste heat” go to waste, is a good idea, in general.

      I have heard that the reason that this isn’t done in the US is two-fold:

      (1) Nuclear power plants aren’t being built near residential areas.

      (2) The US does not have a tradition of district heating, from any power plant with waste heat. This probably has to do with the lack of control each consumer has over supply. If there is too much heat, it is necessary to open a window; too little, it becomes time to wear a jacket inside.

      I saw district heating first hand in China, near coal fired power plants. In Beijing, district heating was available in the spring up until March 15. On the days leading up to March 15, the classrooms where I taught were stifling hot, especially when sun shone in through the window and there were lots of students heating up the room. When the heat was turned off on March 16, it was quite cold in the classroom. Students wore jackets in the classroom. Students I talked to mentioned that dorm rooms were very cold in the morning.

      I think the IEAE article you link to relates particularly to the idea of building many small-scale nuclear units. Such a system perhaps could be used for “combined heat and power” in an area. I have seen many articles advocating small-scale nuclear, but it really hasn’t really caught on much, except to power submarines.

      One major issue with small-scale nuclear is security of the system. They likely will need 24/7/365 security.

      Another issue with small-scale nuclear is the transition cost of the whole system, especially if district heating is used, so that combined heat and power is possible.
      –How many homes will be physically close to the nuclear power plant? There is a need for heat tunnels to connect to the homes.
      –There is also a need for electrical supply lines.
      –The small unit will be “down” part of the time. Where will heat and electricity come from then? Homes will need a backup heat unit (heat pump?) as well.

      The nuclear system will be costly, but it doesn’t really save much. In order to have 24/7/365 heat and power using small nuclear, the small nuclear really needs to be an add-on to the existing system; it is not a substitute.

      • Ed says:

        Much of Manhattan is heated from central steam plants. It likewise is over heated. I do not understand why China and Manhattan do not have off values on each room radiator.

        Yes this is only practical for density large urban heating not spread out detached single family houses.

        Yes a nuclear electric plant with a steam heat line running along the highway for about 15 miles to a near by town.

      • drb says:

        One could (at least in some locales, like Russia) use the spent fuel rods pools, with heat going to homes in winter and green houses in summer. Yes, all new infrastructure with related energy costs, but we are down to this now.

      • DJ says:

        More than half of swedish buildings has district heating, 90%+ of apartments.

        No problem with temperatures swings I am aware of.

  37. Ed says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/europe/russia-nuclear-power-climate-change.html

    Nuclear is ideal for residential heating. Super high temperatures and pressures are needed to make electricity but not for heat. A heating nuke can be LOW tech simple materials no containment building needed. Simple small cheap fast to build.

    The article is a electric and heat combination not a simple heat only. I expect Russia and China will go full deployment of nuke heat for their cities and towns. The fuel can be burned for a long time no need to stop at 1%. Accordion expandable fuel rods will allow LONG burns to 50%. When done drop in deep hole. No not prefect but we are at the less than prefect solutions are acceptable solutions stage.

    Also good for many industrial heat needs. Of course EU and NA will not use this technology because … ??? … well it is evil magic that goes against the spirit of anti-science anti rational.

    • You need “dense” cities to make combined heat and power work. Going back to retrofit such dense cities for this now would seem to be high cost. Roads would need to be torn up to put in the new infrastructure.

      • hillcountry says:

        Retrofitting; that’d be a sight to behold. They can barely keep Detroit and Dearborn functional at the water-and-sewer level of infrastructure; with basements flooding, water-emergencies due to sewage getting sucked-in to positive-pressure water lines regularly breaking seals, no back-up power at pumping-stations, the list goes on. I figure most of the triage that occurred to “support” the Mid-Town gentrification lauded as rescuing the city was as clear a signal of energy depletion as anyone might get, yet no lack of mismanagement and graft exacerbating the thermodynamics of decay. The last power-outage had our electricity provider, DTE, reaching out to 5 states for both manpower and equipment like transformers. Imagine two-week outages at 14-degrees. They’re coming sooner or later.

  38. Given how things are going, a dictatorship, in the style of the Arab sheikdoms, will be inevitable.

    Only the ruling class will have a say on governing. The middle and upper middle class, which will dwindle, will have some modicum of good life but absolutely at the mercy of the ruling class. The rest will live shit life.

    • Ed says:

      in the anti science anti rational “west” yes!

      in the pro science pro rational Russia and China no! India might go science but with plenty of class oppression as always.

    • I agree. It takes a lot of energy to have a representative democracy. Things have to evolve downward. I just don’t know precisely how this works out.

    • Tim Groves says:

      In 2030, you vill live shit life, but you vill enjoy it!

  39. Pingback: Le Portugal un refuge (suite) : Où et quand déménager ?

  40. Ran into a year old Dr Campbell video interview of a Public Health Phd
    Fever, Fluids, Food in acute infections

    https://www.youtu.be/watch?v=sP65st24crc

    His/Their advice from randomized studies and observation of general mammalian/animal behavioral responses during infection:

    Bottom line for infectious febrile (fever) response dont treat the symptoms
    (dont tylenol, motrin or advil – only lessen symptoms so you may be less uncomfortable but they are actually deleterious to resolution of the underlying cause.) Higher temperatures stimulate immune response and typically reduce metabolic capability of invaders

    Summary specific advice all against common beliefs & typical physician/hospital “treatments” :

    -Let fever run course; stay warm but dont bundle/cover up so much as to cause sweating;

    -Don’t hydrate unless noticeably thirsty corresponding to fluid loss and if hydrate then include electrolytes (hydrating while body is in fluid conservation mode may cause overhydration leading to general edema, excess fluid in lungs, brain swelling etc);

    -Don’t eat unless body is saying hungry – digestive system shuts down w/ fever; digesting food diverts energy that would otherwise be used to fight infection.

    Additional tIdbit:

    According to this, the modern understanding of saying “feed a cold, starve a fever” is actually a misunderstanding of old saying/phraseology – appropriate modern interpretation should be:

    “IF you feed a cold then you will in the future be starving a fever” or “feeding a cold will inhibit immune response such that progression will lead to a fever.”

    They did not discuss, but led me to wonder effect of frequent sauna treatment in healthy people – from quick general search it appears that evidence for routine appropriate sauna treatments very good for immune system maintenance, cardiac health & blood pressure regulation. Stress of sauna effects similar to excercise/workout response.

  41. “Antimicrobial resistance is now a leading cause of death worldwide
    “This is a hidden pandemic—and one that could eventually become far worse than covid.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/20/antimicrobial-resistance-antibiotic-resistant-bacterial-infections-deaths-lancet-study?mc_cid=5431287b74&mc_eid=662b7fd83b

    • I am afraid that this will become a real problem. I saw an article recently about a study by the University of Georgia, that is related. Gene discovered in Georgia water a possible global threat

      A gene that causes bacteria to be resistant to one of the world’s most important antibiotics, colistin, has been detected in sewer water in Georgia. The presence of the MCR-9 gene is a major concern for public health because it causes antimicrobial resistance, a problem that the World Health Organization has declared “one of the top 10 global public health threats facing humanity.”

      Researchers from the University of Georgia’s Center for Food Safety (CFS) collected sewage water from an urban setting in Georgia to test for the MCR gene in naturally present bacteria. Led by College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences assistant professor Issmat Kassem, whose research focuses on MCR’s presence around the world, the team was surprised at how quickly they detected MCR — they found evidence of the gene in the first sample they took. . .

      Nations such as China and India use the colistin antibiotic in livestock. Colistin is considered a “last resort” antibiotic because it can kill infections that other antibiotics cannot. Its frequent use means that some bacteria are becoming resistant to it. This means that if people or animals contract a strain of colistin-resistant bacteria, there are potentially no medications that can treat their infection. They face extreme, invasive health measures and possible death.

      • Xabier says:

        At a dinner party, I once posed the question as to who among us would have died without antibiotics: it turned out that we would ALL probably have died in our teen, twenties, or early thirties!

        A miracle of human ingenuity, which we have squandered through ignorance and greed: but then, we will only revert – without antibiotics – to the historical condition of all human beings.

        Doctors will revert to trying to make people comfortable rather than curing them.

        And perhaps more attention will be paid to traditional treatments, and medical philosophies, which can be surprisingly effective.

        And maybe look at diet and exercise more closely?

  42. Mirror on the wall says:

    A new poll has found support for Scottish independence on a knife edge.

    Polling companies have fallen into two camps over the past year, with around half finding support split and the other half finding the UK ahead. Savanta-ComRes found UK ahead by 8 points in April 2021, 6 in May, 3 in both September and October – and drawn today.

    So the poll indicates a gradual and substantial increase (+8) for independence over the past six months, and independence may now be ahead in the poll aggregates. And, the very latest contortions in Westminster may not be that relevant to the trend.

    Surveys indicate a pronounced age cohort demographic factor in attitudes to independence, with the eldest most likely to support UK, to vote, and to gradually disappear from the polls – and that may account for some of the trend.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19864477.scottish-independence-support-rise-amid-boris-johnsons-chaos-pollster-finds/

    > Scottish independence support on the rise amid Boris Johnson’s chaos, pollster finds

    A polling firm has recorded an increase in support for Scottish independence as anger continues over Downing Street parties.

    With calls for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign amid the scandal ongoing, Savanta ComRes put support for Scotland leaving the Union up two points since October.

    The new poll says 46% of Scots would back independence at a future indyref, with the same percentage indicating support for staying in the Union. Some 8% were undecided.

    With those don’t knows excluded, the two campaigns sit on 50/50.

    In December, polling by another firm, Ipsos MORI, found support for independence was at 55%. However, more general trends have put the support for the No and Yes campaigns closer to the 50/50 split over the last year.

    A majority of Savanta ComRes respondents also believed that the Downing Street gatherings have damaged the Union, with 54% agreeing with this statement. Around a third said the scandal hasn’t really hurt the Union, or that it had not hurt it at all.

    The polling also found that Johnson’s already low ratings in Scotland have plummeted by 16 points since October, putting his favourability ranking at -62 – the same level as Alba leader Alex Salmond.

    More than three-quarters (79%) of Scots now believe Johnson should resign.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Other polling today shows the stark contrast, between on the one hand the south and midlands of England, and on the other hand the north, NI, Wales and Scotland, in attitudes towards Boris. Southern Britain is increasingly out of touch with the rest of the UK, which is really approaching the end of its tether.

      Economic development has been concentrated in and around London for several decades, to maximise returns, and the conventional wisdom has long been that it is far too late to reverse those trends. 9 out of the 10 poorest regions in northern Europe lie in the UK.

      The Tories ‘levelling up’ rhetoric helped to get Boris elected in 2019, but it will not work a second time. Half of all 2019 Tory voters now say that they will never vote Tory again. They feel that ‘egg is on their face’. Nor would they likely be taken in by Labour Party promises about that, and most of the Tory defectors are now non-voters.

      https://bylinetimes.com/2022/01/21/new-poll-shows-scale-of-conservative-partys-electoral-problem-under-boris-johnson/

      > New Poll Shows Scale of Conservative Party’s Electoral Problem Under Boris Johnson

      …. The scale and depth of the public’s anger is evident from the Omnisis polling, with 78% of respondents saying that they don’t trust the Prime Minister.

      These percentages were particularly high outside the south of England, London and the Midlands. Some 82% of respondents in the north of England, 87% in Northern Ireland, 88% in Wales, and 90% in Scotland said that they don’t trust Johnson.

      It also appears that this distrust is deeply entrenched. Of those who said that they don’t trust Johnson, 89% maintained that there is nothing he can do to regain their trust before the next general election.

  43. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Spain’s rising energy poverty: A cautionary tale for Europe

    Spain saw the largest increase in citizens at risk of energy poverty in the EU in 2020. Now, with soaring gas and electricity prices, Madrid is increasingly worried about the impact of climate policies on its most vulnerable citizens.

    Governments across Europe have sounded the alarm as ongoing energy price hikes hit millions of households on the continent. The current crisis comes at a time when the EU is negotiating new legislation – its ’Fit for 55’ package – that should deliver at least 55% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions by 2030. Many observers warn that, unless the social implications of the energy transition are addressed, social unrest will grow.

    Spain is one of the EU countries hardest hit by the current energy crisis, with power prices hitting record highs on an almost daily basis in the past months. The number of citizens at risk of energy poverty is growing in parallel: according to Eurostat figures, 10.9% of citizens in Spain were unable to keep their homes adequately warm in 2020, up from 7.5% in 2019.
    https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/just-transition/spains-rising-energy-poverty-a-cautionary-tale-for-europe

    • Spain has a lot of energy problems. Needless to say, this article avoids mentioning them. Instead, it talks about the green house gas emission policy, that will raise rates further. It also talks about the need to import more electricity, presumably from Europe. Spain can (a) import fuel, and use it to make electricity or (b) import electricity that someone else makes. The latter is becoming less and less available, especially with nuclear going offline. I think Spain should be happy that doesn’t have very good connectivity to the rest of Europe, now that others are facing shortfalls.

  44. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ryanair CEO Eddie Wilson says unvaccinated people should not be able to fly.

    He was speaking as the carrier announced its summer schedule from Dublin to 120 destinations, and over 900 flights a week.

    Ryanair will also base another aircraft at Dublin Airport this summer, brining its total to 33, and creating 30 direct jobs.

    The company says this is its largest ever Dublin schedule, and a direct result of the recently launched Traffic Recovery Scheme by the daa.

    Mr Wilson says the airline will not make the jab mandatory for flying, but he thinks Governments should.

    “The answer is for everybody to get vaccinated and boosted.

    “It’s not just about holidays, it’s about business, visiting friends and relatives, education – all that sort of good stuff”.
    https://www.newstalk.com/news/ryanair-ceo-unvaccinated-people-should-not-be-able-to-fly-1301881?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=web

    • Jarle says:

      Another idiot talking out of his …

    • Student says:

      Investment funds don’t give funds if the soup is not eaten and up to the last spoonful

    • Bobby says:

      Another airliner making another unexpected emergency landing , having a near miss or crashing for non mechanical reasons and nothing new to see here.

      Myocardial incidents at ten thousand feet would be bad for business. Even without solid evidence, fear has a way of manifesting in people’s subconscious choices. Even a hint of it; in this industry could have implications, nevertheless it will all be hidden in the details and sheeple will line up in droves to fly from one totalitarian destination to another

      Perhaps the risks could even become a slogan ‘United Airlines falls out of the sky more often than any other airline,

      Spin Drs can add even negative potentials to a situation and sell it as a feature.

      Spontaneous, Free fall, Simulated anti gravity experiences are a mandatory added feature of our airliners flight itinerary however the airline is exempt from liability for any coffee stains.

      Incidents will be put down to turbulence.

  45. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Put the unvaccinated behind bars? Nearly 30 per cent of Canadians think so.
    https://twitter.com/backtolife_2019/status/1484505048482734084

    • Bobby says:

      Yay, I knew it! We’re such popular people. Canadians like us so much, they’re going to have us serve drinks in pubs and bars throughout their country ;–)

  46. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The World Economic Forum’s Great Narrative Conference: “The good news is the elite across the world trust each other more and more… the bad news is that the majority of people trusted that elite less…”
    https://twitter.com/ConceptualJames/status/1484355983082094598

Comments are closed.