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In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:
- With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
- With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
- With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.
All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.
In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:
[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.
[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.
In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.
[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.
The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.
The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.
Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.
[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.
With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:
- To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
- To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
- To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
- To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified
Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.
Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.
As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.
Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).
The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.
We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.
High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.
Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.
[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.
Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.
Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.
Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.
If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.
The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.
China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.
[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.
The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.
A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.
With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.
[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.
Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.
This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.
[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.
Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.
Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.
The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.
The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.
Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.
Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.
The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.
[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.
With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.
A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?
A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.
I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.
Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.
[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.
Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.
The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.
The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.
We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.
10-Year-Old Luisa Petenuci Suffers Cardiac Arrest 12 Hours After Receiving Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine, Situation CRITICAL
https://thecovidworld.com/shock-as-10-year-old-luisa-petenuci-suffers-cardiac-arrest-12-hours-after-receiving-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/
Hilarious! Really … Hope the parents are happy mr and mrs MOREON
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“The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.”
Politicians lie. History is written by the victors. Science is dead.
What the great unwashed call “science” is really a perverted version of religion better called “scentism”. Scientism is mostly about corrupting science by pouring humongous amounts of money over charlatans dancing and singing about something they call “science”. In reality it is just entertainment and story telling.
I have been on the inside of that circus for more than 30 year. Seen the big elephants dance.
Scientism is about building absurd models, showing what the world’s view of what everlasting economic growth might look like. It assumes all kinds of things are possible, through models that leave out just enough to miss the point about why a given solution likely wouldn’t work. Scientism “proves” that little pieces of absurd overall models will work, if the models avoid dealing with difficult inconvenient issues, like the need for storage for intermittent electricity, if it is to be used for anything.
“China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems.”
You could say that. You could also say that China is running out of coal.
China (CCP) is a closed society. We can trust nothing coming out of it that does not originate through the communist party.
What we do know is that for the past ten to 15-years China has been importing US coal out of Powder River, Wyoming. As early as 2015, Powder River was projecting they would run out of their supply of coal in 20-years.
There are various grades of coal. Anthracite coal, the “light sweet crude,” the “bubbling gold,” the “Texas T” of coal was depleted a long time ago. China (and the rest of the world) is down to “harvesting” the next level down from “the good stuff.” The would be Bituminous. The next level down from that is Subbituminous. The lasts level down is Lignite. And when that is gone we are burning dirt — or trying to.
There are various grades of oil. The lowest being fracked oil, which is not even useable coming out of the ground. It must be heavily refined and blended with “the good stuff.”
“Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.”
No, they do not.
Again, you are operating from a belief system that no longer exists and that you do not “actuarialize” for reality.
If politicians really wanted “to keep their citizens . . . happy” we wouldn’t have an entrenched geriatric class of professional politicians who should have left office decades ago. And the people would not have to contend with so many forms of oligarchy — primarily corporate, pharmaceutical, media, healthcare, and military.
We would have term limits both the Senate and the House of Representatives — all local, state, and federal governments.
During many years I used to do the same mistake as you are doing; Overestimating the intelligence and rationality of people. I still confess to occasional relapses, but they are getting fewer and farther between…
Just how exactly how am I doing that here? I suggest you read my comment again, without your bias.
Where I live many people got electricity bills this January that are 3-5x higher than January 2021. They get VERY upset and blame politicians for their misery. In a blink of an eye there has been a political decision to subsidice electricity bills using tax money.
Please refrain from derogatory comments like these.
“you are operating from a belief system that no longer exists”
YES!!!!
“Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.”
With both political parties in the US now declaring any elections where they do not win to be illegitimate and fraudulent, you are neglecting to “actuarialize” how elections have become a banality.
People become desensitized to meaningful change that “used to” result from free and fair elections.
Instead of a “government of the people, by the people, and for the people” we get a government of the rogue billionaires and the Soros appointed.
If history is of any guidance this will soon dissolve into confusion, apathy and religious “awakening”. Dmitry Orlov have some excellent descriptions of what the post-collapse Soviet empire looked like from the inside in the 1990’s.
I have read both of Dmitry Orlov’s excellent books. However, he has basically repatriated back to “Mother Russia” and has gone native behind a pay wall.
“elections have become a banality”
Good phrase.
hahahahahaha
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/20/triple-jabbed-over-30s-have-higher-infection-rates-than-the-unvaccinated-ukhsa-data-show/
I think for people under 30s, the chance of getting symptomatic covid is so low that the “jab pre-selection” (aka vaxx deaths) are enough to make a difference.
So, the vaxxes cause either death or immunodeficiency or both.
Thermodynamic Oil Collapse & Future:
This is an excellent discussion from October 2020….Steve St Angelo interviews Dr Louis Arnoux who presents some of his calculations, charts and ideas….
Some highlights:
30:00: “Scraping the bottom of the barrel”…..Approx. 1/3 of the energy in a barrel of oil is unavoidably lost to waste heat….in 1900, 61% of energy in a barrel was available for GDP growth (net energy)….in 2015, that figure was 8%!!!
That figure goes to zero as early as this year….no later than 2030.
1:01:50: “Oil prices are thermodynamically driven”
This chart will make perfect sense to anyone who accepts Gail’s argument that we have an “affordability” problem…..and oil prices may spike higher from here….but they will not stay there.
Basically, as the net energy per barrel declines…each barrel becomes increasingly worthless.
1:26:01: “Appalling inefficiency of energy systems”
Dr Arnoux calculates that the global techno-industrial system is only utilizes 12% of the global energy supply…..88% is wasted!!!
He also calculates that, to maintain comfortable BAU, we need an EROEI of 30:1 at the wellhead…
When a commodity is in short supply and demand increases, the price goes up.
What most people don’t understand about oil or other fossil fuels is this:
(Cheap) oil is not only a commodity that becomes scarce and in demand, it is also the commodity that makes the economy possible in the first place through energy inputs. If this magic potion becomes scarce and demand exceeds supply, economic activity and the possibility to demand at all decreases. One would like to buy, but one cannot, because of “paralysis symptoms” due to lack of energy.
This is very true but almost always forgotten. Gail use to repeat it in endless variations but very few seems to pick it up.
She looks horrible — as one might when one is killing 5M people — and listen to that accent Wet Beak… that’s a cross between Deliverance and a Re tarded Newie…
https://www.facebook.com/jacindaardern/videos/1567061007010907
How does Clarke do it? I guess he must close his eyes and think of the nanny… the oh so hot Swedish nymph .. 21 yrs old was she??? fit… no donkey like teeth… gawd… I pitty clarke
BTW – we are told we don’t have enough spots for severe covids… we spend 1B a week I am told keeping the shit show afloat — yet not a penny has been spent on prepping for the variants — not a single new wing on a single hospital… nuthin…
Oh and we gunned doctors and nurses who refused the uselss garbage that is ironically going to cause the hospitals to be swamped
I… Can’t.. Wait ICW
I hope lots of tripled jabbed people I know end up in the ICU hahahaahaha
Reminds me of that story — context — bar in HK — some business guy from overseas no doubt – making out with a .. TRANNY.. freeek… I says to my buddy Frank – should I tell his mate that’s a TF.. ya … I tell the mate .. he laughs.. I says aren’t you gonna tell him — he says f789 him – it will be a great story when we get back
This is how I feel about jabbed imbeciles who end up in ICU or a coffin F’em… F’em x1000
Fast Eddy really has lived a full life… in fact he’s had enough adventure to fill 500 lives… it’s ok to die now… it’s… ok…
She is not aging well. More importantly, she does not have a clue what she is talking about. Not a problem usually for a kiwi politician given the very low IQs of the people of that sad land.
However, completely ignoring cheap and effective treatments is criminal. Ivermectin, for example although used for her brothers and sisters in the four legged community is highly effective in the early stages of covid.
Clarke deserves a medal. He must have an ability like battle hardened soldiers to block out his repulsion at what lies before him and just get the job done no matter how unpleasant.
Top soldiers have the ability to switch off their sensibilities as they become involved in actions.
Clarke has these qualities and deserves new zealand’s highest civilian honour – a gold star with a mince pie. In performing these acts of valour he has saved any other nz male this horror.
I am reminded of words from the Bible, Man hath no greater love than to lay down his life (with jacinda) for his friends.
I also nominate norm’s blow up doll for some sort of award as well… it must be horrible missing Ken so much
Hahaha – you got a twisted mind!
I notice that Gail’s new article has been posted on ZH….first in a long time….the comments haven’t changed….a small minority get it….majority are dismissive….
Tim Watkins had a brilliant article posted on ZH, late 2020….it was ripped to shreds in the comments…I love ZH but the energy blindness there is shocking….
First: Congratulates to the ZH exposure.
Second: The comments were a real eye-opener to degree of delusion among the readers. We can safely assume that they are equally deluded on most of the time. Something to think about when reading and agreeing with them on other issues.
Yeay been reading zh for a long time and most of the people on there are lost on political ideology. It makes them blind to what’s going on . You will find a fair amount of that on here from time to time. People here tend to lean right and when the right is in control there is less criticism of the “government”
Check it out
Not all vaccines prevent infection. Some, known as leaky vaccines, prolong host survival or reduce disease symptoms without preventing viral replication and transmission. Although leaky vaccines provide anti-disease benefits to vaccinated individuals, new research by CIDD’s Andrew Read, David Kennedy and colleagues at the Avian Oncogenic Virus Group in the United Kingdom, and The University of New England in Australia, has demonstrated that leaky vaccines can make the situation for unvaccinated individuals worse.
Leaky vaccines work by enhancing host immunity to a particular pathogen, without necessarily blocking or slowing viral replication. The result is that infected but vaccinated individuals have extended survival, allowing highly virulent pathogen that would normally reach an evolutionary dead-end in a dead host, can transmit. The evolutionary consequences of high virulence are thus reduced and these pathogens can be selectively favored as a result of leaky vaccination.
The researchers tested whether leaky vaccines could be a potential driver in the evolution of higher virulence in a system where evolution to high virulence of a virus infecting chickens has been rapidly observed since the introduction of vaccines in the 1980s. The virus known as Marek’s disease virus, infects chickens worldwide, and with its climbing levels of virulence has been costing the industry over $2 billion/year in recent years. Using an experimental setup to infect vaccinated and unvaccinated birds with viruses of different levels of virulence, Read and colleagues found that although vaccines reduced the concentration of virus shed by birds, by extending survival, vaccinated individuals shed cumulatively higher amounts of highly virulent virus.
Similar results came from individuals that received maternal antibodies: immunity extended survival and increased the amount of the most virulent virus that could then be transmitted to unvaccinated individuals. These highly virulent strains that survived in vaccinated or immune-protected individuals were then shown to be lethal in unvaccinated individuals.
The results suggest that disease interventions that aim to prevent disease symptoms without preventing transmission can have dangerous evolutionary consequences and need to be considered in cases with imperfect vaccines. The findings were published this month in PLoS Biology and can be accessed here. The video press release is also available here.
http://epidemics.psu.edu/articles/view/leaky-vaccines-promote-the-transmission-of-more-virulent-virus
Thanks for reminding us of this. You link to a 2016 article relating to leaky vaccines. I know I talked about the issue in my post in August:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/
I referenced two article when I talked about Marek’s disease. The first one was this 2018 article Vaccines Are Pushing Pathogens to Evolve
I notice that the 2018 article now has new disclaimer added to the beginning (which I don’t believe):
Nonsense! “COVID-19 vaccines significantly reduce coronavirus replication and transmission” Look at case rates in highly vaccinated countries.
The other article I referenced in my post is the July 2015 PLOS biology article, Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens found here
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198
This is the same academic article that is referenced in the article from “Epidemics” that you linked to, Fast Eddy. This article has as its lead author Andrew Read, someone who is mentioned in the article you reference. The summary from Epidemics is a good one, because it writes up the main findings in easy to understand form.
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Meanwhile — this is the direction we are headed
“This is how we can manage to escape the cycle of opening and closing, of lockdowns,” he said, saying it is about fighting not just omicron, but any future variants that might emerge. “That is why this law is so urgently needed right now,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/austria-makes-covid-vaccination-compulsory-and-police-will-check/ar-AASZ1F4
hang on … canada is highly vaxxed .. but locked down.. I guess the way it works is people in Austria can only access info on Austria Covid…so they don’t know about canada
Believe it or not our kids are attending public school right now! In eastern Canada.
Congratulations on having your children brainwashed to become good nazis!
BTW, have you seen that kids TV show in Quebec where the Hitlerjugend kids were eager to kill the unvaxed?
Believe it or not if you have injected your kids you’ve done experimentation on them…. cuz there are no studies on long term side effects of the injections
hahahahahahahahaaha what kinda of parent experiments on their kids?
It’s kinda like catching a frog and injecting petrol into them to see what happens hahahahahahaahaha
eddy
i thought you’d made a new year resolution to cut down on the ha’s
Natural selection will thus work here to ‘select’ the most infectious variant that could overcome the sub-optimal immune pressure (the vaccinal antibodies are sub-optimal for it is mounting and not yet mature and fully developed).
If we continue to vaccinate, with these non-sterilizing vaccines that do not neutralize the virus, then we run the risk of more infectious variants and dangerously, a lethal one; be careful and warned
https://palexander.substack.com/p/if-we-continue-to-vaccinate-with
This is the Fast Eddy hedge… cuz he read FE’s comment re how nobody should be celebrating the UK story — so long as they keep pumping the boosters…
And they are … as is every other country
There is a big push here in Scotland for 16-17 y.o. to get their booster. Last weekend whilst driving, the same advertisement kept coming on the radio, 16-17 yo get your booster now. And last night on YT, similar, an ad kept coming on, 16-17 y.o. get your booster, now. When will the dozies wake up? If not by now, probably never.
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hahaha https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300500844/zero-tolerance-for-kiwis-trying-to-enter-country-as-bogus-transit-passengers
Conlon said he had “acquired unpopularity” for speaking out against mandatory vaccination, and that he had further irritated the Ministry of Health for attempting to import Ivermectin – “hoping to then make it available for free to my high-risk patients when they are infected with Covid-19”.
Conlon has also filed a case in the Rotorua District Court seeking a judicial review of a Medsafe decision to confiscate a consignment of Ivermectin he was importing for his patients.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/murupara-gp-dr-bernard-conlon-to-be-suspended-pending-further-investigation/ODMSBBB5PV3JB6QOOAC3WALLIY/
It’s highly unusual for any kiwi to display courage in any walk of life especially medicine. More than any other country’s people new zealanders are powerless in respect of the bystander effect. New zealanders are never happier than when they are standing around watching a defenceless individual beaten nearly to death by a mob.
No surprise then that the good doctor is Irish and an immigrant to sad backward new zealand. He retains his delightful Irish accent in the face of gruntspeak, the language of new zealanders.
On television recently he was seen being accosted by a monosyllabic member of the nz media. His eloquence and intelligence were clear and the savage beat a hasty retreat.
Now he is being vilified by all and sundry. Unfortunately for them he is right. But it’s mob rule that matters in the world’s most irrelevant land.
When I first came to NZ in the 90’s I thought the backwardness of the place was quaint …. but living here for 6 years amongst the hill billies… it’s mostly irritating… at least in Queenstown most of the people are not from NZ so it’s quite tolerable.
https://youtu.be/1tqxzWdKKu8
Medical supplies
The Ministry of Health suggests having pain relief such as Ibuprofen and Panadol to hand, as well as a kit with hand sanitiser, masks, tissues and cleaning equipment such as gloves, rubbish bags and cleaning products.
It’s also helpful to have medicines that will help with the symptoms of Covid-19, such as throat lozenges, cough medicine and ice blocks.
If you need particular medicines, your doctor or local pharmacy can arrange having prescriptions delivered to your home.
Self isolating at home can be tedious, so make sure to stock up on games, books, or any activity that you enjoy and will help to pass the time.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-how-to-prepare-for-an-outbreak-and-home-isolation/YSSFQFU7DBWQ5QYBX5XLM46Z5A/
I must get some cough drops!!!
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/alberta-gets-caught-palming-cards
the entire vaccine narrative has been mathematically manipulated to make the vaccines appear to be helpful, when in fact they don’t save lives but cause more deaths.
I will bet that no jabbed person will comment on this article.
hahaha… are you kidding?
norm dunc mike won’t read this
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British Heart Foundation video; one of our colleagues here gave me and not sure I have permission to share her name, she is a MD, PhD; key is how the system is trying to normalize heart death in kids
normalizing heart disease among children. thats the key, they know children will die from these vaccines so putting it in your face and telling you do not fuss, we can treat it…’they got this’…
Enjoy https://palexander.substack.com/p/british-heart-foundation-video-one
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Check out the main page headlines https://www.nzherald.co.nz/
Buckle up mike!
“Deaths in New Zealand”
Imagine what life would be like… if you actually believed all the shite that you read there…
mike — what’s it like?
And Australia — what do you reckon went wrong mike? You can’t say it would be worse without the vaccine because we know what it was like before the vaccine — we have the historical data…
come on mike… come on ya wankka…
Sorry if anyone posted this already. It’s BBC, I’m surprised that they make the connection between inflation and energy prices
Fast, NZ is over 90%. Is it time to burn the <10%?
Nah – that’s the breeding stock for the Great Reset
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https://www.youtube.com/c/Merogenomics
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‘The more vaccines administered in a given area = more mutations — any mutation that helps the virus sneak away from these vaccines driving the evolution of the virus’
This is Ominous … after watching consider what happens when places like England open up and millions get infected:
Vaccines and virus evolution – COVID-19 mRNA vaccines update 25
61,506 views • Jan 5, 2022 •
In this second series video on Omicron infectiousness predictions, we look at the data from a group specializing in predictive modelling of variant infectivity as well as variant immune escape from neutralizing antibodies. We also discuss authors’ latest published work on how vaccination might be influencing virus evolution.
https://youtu.be/_4k9Ovt-nm8
https://merogenomics.ca/en/about/
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The CCP military was using gain-of-function tech to modify the Ebola/Marburg virus as their “cutting-edge” bioweapon as early as 2016. They are testing it in Xi’an. Don’t be surprised if it starts to spread out to the world after the Winter Olympic Games in February.
https://twitter.com/Theresa75226936/status/1482752565607424006
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJBX9isWUAEm4_M?format=jpg&name=4096×4096
whoa top notch Doomer Pron!
though you have warned us not to be surprised, I indeed will be surprised if there is some sort of an Ebola/Marburg bioweapon pandemic in 2022.
though I will acknowledge that I had been warned.
fun times! E/M vaccines by 2023. wooooooo!!!!!!!
bAU tonight, baby!
https://twitter.com/XLCHEN19/status/1482658840885829634
A new pcr virus test kit is being distributed globally. The PCR test is for a hemorrhagic fever. Xian China went into lockdown Dec 24 with hemorrhagic fever sharing Covid-19 similarities.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJFHTbBXoAA4rtN?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJSJC29XoAQhQtt?format=jpg&name=large
If it is something we are allowed to understand in advance it means that it will be what they want us to believe.
With espionage and counterintelligence it normally happens that one can only interpret after the event what has happened and cannot realized it in advance.
Another story.. The Enterprise took a short trip at warp speed to recover a missing ship and crew that were sent on a dangerous mission to procure a rare mineral needed for the transition to renewables. The awol ship left with a 100% vaccinated crew and mysteriously showed up in a decaying orbit of the planet Uranus.
Entering the missing ship, the crew of the Enterprise viewed onboard video of something akin to the massacre on the Event Horizon.. the vaccinated were suffering from worsening clinical outcomes including viral hemorrhagic fever and being rapacious primates they were ripping off each other’s faces.
Dr. Spock locked himself inside the ships reactor and says while bleeding from his eyes and nose, “they traveled too far beyond the known universe.”
Meanwhile on Earth, the sky was filled with warplanes. Captain America and the Avengers were being assembled to counter a new Vaccinator Army led by a reanimated Stormtrooper in woodland fatigues. Energy reserves were short on the European front and useless eaters were in harms way. The evil forces behind the Large Hadron Collider technology and the dangerous space mission were planning a Great Reset. Plans changed after this group of pagan billionaires led by Klaus Schwab doomed their plans by inadvertently tempting a malevolent egregore with their LHC opening Cirque de Soleil ceremony involving actors dressed up as the god Pan. Volcanoes erupted and the economy crashed.
most enjoyable hahahahaha
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Killer virus leaves bunnies bleeding to death en masse
Hemorrhagic disease spreads like wildfire among rabbit populations in America
Rabbits across multiple American states, both wild and domestic, are being plagued by a highly contagious virus that causes Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease – a condition that kills anywhere between 80% to 100% of all infected animals.
With a three- to nine-day incubation period, the disease manifests itself in a range of symptoms, most common of which include lethargy, fever, weight loss, and bleeding from the nose or eyes.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture, the virus, known as RHDV2, does not affect humans.
The pathogen was first detected in the US last year, and has since spread across some 17 states, with New York and Florida being the latest two to identify the deadly disease.
https://www.rt.com/news/546613-deadly-virus-ravages-american-rabbits/
This is the sort of thing we can expect when we mass deploy leaky vaccines during a pandemic — and then boost the subjects repeatedly…
Eventually you end up with a catastrophic situation …
It is very helpful to infect as many as the vaccinated humans as possible if you want the worst outcome.
You will actually end up with multiple versions of Devil Covid since you have billions of mutation factories
we get one of these every few years. IIRC, they wanted to use mixomatosis to get rid of rabbits in Australia a few decades ago. How did that go?
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Why are we seeing these primers in most countries https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-outbreak-supermarkets-warn-of-potential-purchase-limits-to-prevent-panic-buying/FNGKNDQJQKLJBEQPG3PKKX7JWY/
Because we are being conditioned for the Great Starvation…
As we know the CEP is not only about Devil Covid — it’s also about huge numbers of deaths which ensures people lock themselves down … and they die from starvation…
You starve people bit by bit … you don’t want a panic… you want to prepare them for the end game…
I doubt the combined new zealand armed forces and police could stop a kiwi hog on the hunt for food in a supermarket. These big gals can tip the scales at close to 400 pounds. How do you stop a ravenous one of those? Bazooka? A normal tactical weapon doesn’t stand a chance as those sows load up on snickers and ice cream.
You’d need a god damn bazooka to take down one of those Big Hogs…
F789rs bust normal scales… they get weighed on cattle scales… heavy duty brutha…
I once shot one with a high powered rifle and she just kept on trucking … don’t think I made it through the first layer of arse blubber….
Sooooooo EEEeeeeeeeee
Picture this but with a big ol hog — I am sure I saw those two last time I was in Southland … pretty indicative of the average Kiwi…
https://youtu.be/aaZbcXZ5a8Y
Vaccine Roulette 🙂
Dec 31, 2021 Dr. Wolfgane Wodarg shares with the Corona Investigative Committee the latest game changing findings by researcher Craig Paardekooper (Kingston University, London). The U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) data shows vaccine batches are sequentially marked by varying toxicity. This has now been statistically graphed out and proves that the COVID vaccine manufacturers worked in a coordinated fashion with the intent to purposely kill and maim. As Reiner Fuellmich points out, once “intent” has been proven, there is no immunity or liability protection for anyone involved in these crimes against humanity.”
https://www.bitchute.com/video/nPFRTXbzKDpR/