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Time and time again, financial approaches have worked to fix economic problems. Raising interest rates has acted to slow the economy and lowering them has acted to speed up the economy. Governments overspending their incomes also acts to push the economy ahead; doing the reverse seems to slow economies down.
What could possibly go wrong? The issue is a physics problem. The economy doesn’t run simply on money and debt. It operates on resources of many kinds, including energy-related resources. As the population grows, the need for energy-related resources grows. The bottleneck that occurs is something that is hard to see in advance; it is an affordability bottleneck.
For a very long time, financial manipulations have been able to adjust affordability in a way that is optimal for most players. At some point, resources, especially energy resources, get stretched too thin, relative to the rising population and all the commitments that have been made, such as pension commitments. As a result, there is no way for the quantity of goods and services produced to grow sufficiently to match the promises that the financial system has made. This is the real bottleneck that the world economy reaches.
I believe that we are closely approaching this bottleneck today. I recently gave a talk to a group of European officials at the 2nd Luxembourg Strategy Conference, discussing the issue from the European point of view. Europeans seem to be especially vulnerable because Europe, with its early entry into the Industrial Revolution, substantially depleted its fossil fuel resources many years ago. The topic I was asked to discuss was, “Energy: The interconnection of energy limits and the economy and what this means for the future.”
In this post, I write about this presentation.
The major issue is that money, by itself, cannot operate the economy, because we cannot eat money. Any model of the economy must include energy and other resources. In a finite world, these resources tend to deplete. Also, human population tends to grow. At some point, not enough goods and services are produced for the growing population.
I believe that the major reason we have not been told about how the economy really works is because it would simply be too disturbing to understand the real situation. If today’s economy is dependent on finite fossil fuel supplies, it becomes clear that, at some point, these will run short. Then the world economy is likely to face a very difficult time.
A secondary reason for the confusion about how the economy operates is too much specialization by researchers studying the issue. Physicists (who are concerned about energy) don’t study economics; politicians and economists don’t study physics. As a result, neither group has a very broad understanding of the situation.
I am an actuary. I come from a different perspective: Will physical resources be adequate to meet financial promises being made? I have had the privilege of learning a little from both economic and physics sides of the discussion. I have also learned about the issue from a historical perspective.
World energy consumption has been growing very rapidly at the same time that the world economy has been growing. This makes it hard to tell whether the growing energy supply enabled the economic growth, or whether the higher demand created by the growing economy encouraged the world economy to use more resources, including energy resources.
Physics says that it is energy resources that enable economic growth.
The R-squared of GDP as a function of energy is .98, relative to the equation shown.
Physicists talk about the “dissipation” of energy. In this process, the ability of an energy product to do “useful work” is depleted. For example, food is an energy product. When food is digested, its ability to do useful work (provide energy for our body) is used up. Cooking food, whether using a campfire or electricity or by burning natural gas, is another way of dissipating energy.
Humans are clearly part of the economy. Every type of work that is done depends upon energy dissipation. If energy supplies deplete, the form of the economy must change to match.
There are a huge number of systems that seem to grow by themselves using a process called self-organization. I have listed a few of these on Slide 8. Some of these things are alive; most are not. They are all called “dissipative structures.”
The key input that allows these systems to stay in a “non-dead” state is dissipation of energy of the appropriate type. For example, we know that humans need about 2,000 calories a day to continue to function properly. The mix of food must be approximately correct, too. Humans probably could not live on a diet of lettuce alone, for example.
Economies have their own need for energy supplies of the proper kind, or they don’t function properly. For example, today’s agricultural equipment, as well as today’s long-distance trucks, operate on diesel fuel. Without enough diesel fuel, it becomes impossible to plant and harvest crops and bring them to market. A transition to an all-electric system would take many, many years, if it could be done at all.
I think of an economy as being like a child’s building toy. Gradually, new participants are added, both in the form of new citizens and new businesses. Businesses are formed in response to expected changes in the markets. Governments gradually add new laws and new taxes. Supply and demand seem to set market prices. When the system seems to be operating poorly, regulators step in, typically adjusting interest rates and the availability of debt.
One key to keeping the economy working well is the fact that those who are “consumers” closely overlap those who are “employees.” The consumers (= employees) need to be paid well enough, or they cannot purchase the goods and services made by the economy.
A less obvious key to keeping the economy working well is that the whole system needs to be growing. This is necessary so that there are enough goods and services available for the growing population. A growing economy is also needed so that debt can be repaid with interest, and so that pension obligations can be paid as promised.
World population has been growing year after year, but arable land stays close to constant. To provide enough food for this rising population, more intensive agriculture is required, often including irrigation, fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides.
Furthermore, an increasing amount of fresh water is needed, leading to a need for deeper wells and, in some places, desalination to supplement other water sources. All these additional efforts add energy usage, as well as costs.
In addition, mineral ores and energy supplies of all kinds tend to become depleted because the best resources are accessed first. This leaves the more expensive-to-extract resources for later.
The issues in Slide 11 are a continuation of the issues described on Slide 10. The result is that the cost of energy production eventually rises so much that its higher costs spill over into the cost of all other goods and services. Workers find that their paychecks are not high enough to cover the items they usually purchased in the past. Some poor people cannot even afford food and fresh water.
Increasing debt is helpful as an economy grows. A farmer can borrow money for seed to grow a crop, and he can repay the debt, once the crop has grown. Or an entrepreneur can finance a factory using debt.
On the consumer side, debt at a sufficiently low interest rate can be used to make the purchase of a home or vehicle affordable.
Central banks and others involved in the financial world figured out many years ago that if they manipulate interest rates and the availability of credit, they are generally able to get the economy to grow as fast as they would like.
It is hard for most people to imagine how much interest rates have varied over the last century. Back during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the early 1940s, interest rates were very close to zero. As large amounts of inexpensive energy were added to the economy in the post-World War II period, the world economy raced ahead. It was possible to hold back growth by raising interest rates.
Oil supply was constrained in the 1970s, but demand and prices kept rising. US Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker is known for raising interest rates to unheard of heights (over 15%) with a peak in 1981 to end inflation brought on by high oil prices. This high inflation rate brought on a huge recession from which the economy eventually recovered, as the higher prices brought more oil supply online (Alaska, North Sea, and Mexico), and as substitution was made for some oil use. For example, home heating was moved away from burning oil; electricity-production was mostly moved from oil to nuclear, coal and natural gas.
Another thing that has helped the economy since 1981 has been the ability to stimulate demand by lowering interest rates, making monthly payments more affordable. In 2008, the US added Quantitative Easing as a way of further holding interest rates down. A huge debt bubble has thus been built up since 1981, as the world economy has increasingly been operated with an increasing amount of debt at ever-lower interest rates. (See 3-month and 10 year interest rates shown on Slide 14.) This cheap debt has allowed rapidly rising asset prices.
The world economy starts hitting major obstacles when energy supply stops growing faster than population because the supply of finished goods and services (such as new automobile, new homes, paved roads, and airplane trips for passengers) produced stops growing as rapidly as population. These obstacles take the form of affordability obstacles. The physics of the situation somehow causes the wages and wealth to be increasingly concentrated among the top 10% or 1%. Lower-paid individuals are increasingly left out. While goods are still produced, ever-fewer workers can afford more than basic necessities. Such a situation makes for unhappy workers.
World energy consumption per capita hit a peak in 2018 and began to slide in 2019, with an even bigger drop in 2020. With less energy consumption, world automobile sales began to slide in 2019 and fell even lower in 2020. Protests, often indirectly related to inadequate wages or benefits, became an increasing problem in 2019. The year 2020 is known for Covid-19 related shutdowns and flight cancellations, but the indirect effect was to reduce energy consumption by less travel and by broken supply lines leading to unavailable goods. Prices of fossil fuels dropped far too low for producers.
Governments tried to get their own economies growing by various techniques, including spending more than the tax revenue they took in, leading to a need for more government debt, and by Quantitative Easing, acting to hold down interest rates. The result was a big increase in the money supply in many countries. This increased money supply was often distributed to individual citizens as subsidies of various kinds.
The higher demand caused by this additional money tended to cause inflation. It tended to raise fossil fuel prices because the inexpensive-to-extract fuels have mostly been extracted. In the days of Paul Volker, more energy supply at a little higher price was available within a few years. This seems extremely unlikely today because of diminishing returns. The problem is that there is little new oil supply available unless prices can stay above at least $120 per barrel on a consistent basis, and prices this high, or higher, do not seem to be available.
Oil prices are not rising this high, even with all of the stimulus funds because of the physics-based wage disparity problem mentioned previously. Also, those with political power try to keep fuel prices down so that the standards of living of citizens will not fall. Because of these low oil prices, OPEC+ continues to make cuts in production. The existence of chronically low prices for fossil fuels is likely the reason why Russia behaves in as belligerent a manner as it does today.
Today, with rising interest rates and Quantitative Tightening instead of Quantitative Easing, a major concern is that the debt bubble that has grown since in 1981 will start to collapse. With falling debt levels, prices of assets, such as homes, farms, and shares of stock, can be expected to fall. Many borrowers will be unable to repay their loans.
If this combination of events occurs, deflation is a likely outcome because banks and pension funds are likely to fail. If, somehow, local governments are able to bail out banks and pension funds, then there is a substantial likelihood of local hyperinflation. In such a case, people will have huge quantities of money, but practically nothing available to buy. In either case, the world economy will shrink because of inadequate energy supply.
Most people have a “normalcy bias.” They assume that if economic growth has continued for a long time in the past, it necessarily will occur in the future. Yet, we all know that all dissipative structures somehow come to an end. Humans can come to an end in many ways: They can get hit by a car; they can catch an illness and succumb to it; they can die of old age; they can starve to death.
History tells us that economies nearly always collapse, usually over a period of years. Sometimes, population rises so high that the food production margin becomes tight; it becomes difficult to set aside enough food if the cycle of weather should turn for the worse. Thus, population drops when crops fail.
In the years leading up to collapse, it is common that the wages of ordinary citizens fall too low for them to be able to afford an adequate diet. In such a situation, epidemics can spread easily and kill many citizens. With so much poverty, it becomes impossible for governments to collect enough taxes to maintain services they have promised. Sometimes, nations lose at war because they cannot afford a suitable army. Very often, governmental debt becomes non-repayable.
The world economy today seems to be approaching some of the same bottlenecks that more local economies hit in the past.
The basic problem is that with inadequate energy supplies, the total quantity of goods and services provided by the economy must shrink. Thus, on average, people must become poorer. Most individual citizens, as well as most governments, will not be happy about this situation.
The situation becomes very much like the game of musical chairs. In this game, one chair at a time is removed. The players walk around the chairs while music plays. When the music stops, all participants grab for a chair. Someone gets left out. In the case of energy supplies, the stronger countries will try to push aside the weaker competitors.
Countries that understand the importance of adequate energy supplies recognize that Europe is relatively weak because of its dependence on imported fuel. However, Europe seems to be oblivious to its poor position, attempting to dictate to others how important it is to prevent climate change by eliminating fossil fuels. With this view, it can easily keep its high opinion of itself.
If we think about the musical chairs’ situation and not enough energy supplies to go around, everyone in the world (except Europe) would be better off if Europe were to be forced out of its high imports of fossil fuels. Russia could perhaps obtain higher energy export prices in Asia and the Far East. The whole situation becomes very strange. Europe tells itself it is cutting off imports to punish Russia. But, if Europe’s imports can remain very low, everyone else, from the US, to Russia, to China, to Japan would benefit.
The benefits of wind and solar energy are glorified in Europe, with people being led to believe that it would be easy to transition from fossil fuels, and perhaps leave nuclear, as well. The problem is that wind, solar, and even hydroelectric energy supply are very undependable. They cannot ever be ramped up to provide year-round heat. They are poorly adapted for agricultural use (except for sunshine helping crops grow).
Few people realize that the benefits that wind and solar provide are tiny. They cannot be depended on, so companies providing electricity need to maintain duplicate generating capacity. Wind and solar require far more transmission than fossil-fuel-generated electricity because the best sources are often far from population centers. When all costs are included (without subsidy), wind and solar electricity tend to be more expensive than fossil-fuel generated electricity. They are especially difficult to rely on in winter. Therefore, many people in Europe are concerned about possibly “freezing in the dark,” as soon as this winter.
There is no possibility of ever transitioning to a system that operates only on intermittent electricity with the population that Europe has today, or that the world has today. Wind turbines and solar panels are built and maintained using fossil fuel energy. Transmission lines cannot be maintained using intermittent electricity alone.
Basically, Europe must use very much less fossil fuel energy, for the long term. Citizens cannot assume that the war with Ukraine will soon be over, and everything will be back to the way it was several years ago. It is much more likely that the freeze-in-the-dark problem will be present every winter, from now on. In fact, European citizens might actually be happier if the climate would warm up a bit.
With this as background, there is a need to figure out how to use less energy without hurting lifestyles too badly. To some extent, changes from the Covid-19 shutdowns can be used, since these indirectly were ways of saving energy. Furthermore, if families can move in together, fewer buildings in total will need to be heated. Cooking can perhaps be done for larger groups at a time, saving on fuel.
If families can home-school their children, this saves both the energy for transportation to school and the energy for heating the school. If families can keep younger children at home, instead of sending them to daycare, this saves energy, as well.
A major issue that I do not point out directly in this presentation is the high energy cost of supporting the elderly in the lifestyles to which they have become accustomed. One issue is the huge amount and cost of healthcare. Another is the cost of separate residences. These costs can be reduced if the elderly can be persuaded to move in with family members, as was done in the past. Pension programs worldwide are running into financial difficulty now, with interest rates rising. Countries with large elderly populations are likely to be especially affected.
Besides conserving energy, the other thing people in Europe can do is attempt to understand the dynamics of our current situation. We are in a different world now, with not enough energy of the right kinds to go around.
The dynamics in a world of energy shortages are like those of the musical chairs’ game. We can expect more fighting. We cannot expect that countries that have been on our side in the past will necessarily be on our side in the future. It is more like being in an undeclared war with many participants.
Under ideal circumstances, Europe would be on good terms with energy exporters, even Russia. I suppose at this late date, nothing can be done.
A major issue is that if Europe attempts to hold down fossil fuel prices, the indirect result will be to reduce supply. Oil, natural gas and coal producers will all reduce supply before they will accept a price that they consider too low. Given the dependence of the world economy on energy supplies, especially fossil fuel energy supplies, this will make the situation worse, rather than better.
Wind and solar are not replacements for fossil fuels. They are made with fossil fuels. We don’t have the ability to store up solar energy from summer to winter. Wind is also too undependable, and battery capacity too low, to compensate for need for storage from season to season. Thus, without a growing supply of fossil fuels, it is impossible for today’s economy to continue in its current form.
Fentanyl in the blood is part of the naturally occurring evolutionary process. All part of a self organizing system. Forced sodomy too.
I would hope not!
“Forced sodomy is part of a self organizing system”.
We have a winner for comment of the week!
The construction and maintenance of the human dwelling is the fight with the physical forces of the nature. If there is not enough energy for this fight, we have the real estates losing value.
As seen now in Chine and soon elsewhere.
yes it’s been discussed here… the value of a house is from the energy embedded in it when it was constructed, with some added embedded energy from years of maintenance.
(assets required past energy, debts require future energy.)
wind and water etc pound on houses year after year, so the value of the house would decrease over time, but can be countered with extra energy embedded by maintaining and repairing the house to keep up the value.
as surplus energy declines in IC, all infrastructure will become less and less affordable to maintain and repair, even as the total amount of infrastructure is at its highest level ever.
it’s an additional layer of affordability problems, besides the ongoing affordability issues with depleting energy resources.
Stone houses seem to last well, except for roofs which need maintenance. Thatched roofs have been used for many years.
Beats a tent or cave.
Dennis L.
Disagree. Caves often can be as warm as 65 degrees year round. A stone house has insulation of about 1. Stone is very dense and transmits heat readily. Interior heat via combustion is sucked up by the stone and radiated to the outside. A straw bale house with that same thatched roof is many many times more livable. Which leads to the ghetto solution of straw bales stacked up against a trailer. Voila! Even a OSB shack with no insulation is better than stone construction. Ghetto physics doesnt discriminate. Those same straw bales stacked outside a stonehouse work except the energy to fill the thermal mass of the stone has to be applied. If the stone gets cold your not going to bring it up to temp fast and it will take a lot of energy. That stone wall behind glass facing south is a different story. That sort of wall on the south other walls straw bale would be ideal. Radiation doesnt pass through stone easily so there is that as we approach nuclear apocalypse. Everyone wants to build their stonehenge even if its unlivable. Immortality through stone masonry.
Everyone could live in trailer parks if greed and envy were not prominent traits in humans.
“… assets required past energy, debts require future energy….” This statement is worth noting as it applies to gold. People everywhere, of all persuasions understand instinctively that gold is a product of ‘past energy’. They don’t have to think, it’s a gut feeling. In fact, many choose not to think at all and do very well in life based on this one thing.
If you have gold I kill you.
If you can work I feed you.
Remember the one with gold may have a batch of lead along with it too
The notion of the house is also changing: a stone house is a temporary.weekend/holiday dwelling today, as it does not meet the current standards for interior clmt, air quality, energy efficiency etc.
Basically, there is not just a large number of unaffordable houses, but there is a lot of new houses which are outdated, as regards the changing clmt, insufficient energy efficiency etc. mentioned above.
The people could potentially buy them, but they are already outdated, like a car missing air conditioning, today’s safety features etc.
Today, who needs the windows that can be opened, when we need high energy efficiency, i. e. no leakages, and air quality control?
MG,
I have built such houses, have one now. They are incredibly expensive and difficult to build well. Once sealed they require air exchange otherwise mold and bugs are an issue.
I am not arguing for stone only that it will last generations, there are stone homes around me, they last, there are old wooden farmhouses, they collapse. Same with school houses, wood collapses, brick, stone endure. Roof is the issue.
Look at Rome, stone endures, it still moves water.
Dennis L.
We know a lot about the Romans from their wet areas, toilets etc which were always built of stone. Mostly they built of wood (and ran out constantly needing to conquer wooded lands to address it). But the wooden structures burnt or fell down in no time. So we conjecture based on hypocausts and toilets.
Water and rot kill sealed houses in the U.K. we have the most hostile climate for buildings on earth. 6 months between 1-7C, loads of moisture, everywhere. Driven rain. Passivhaus doesn’t work. Spore central
As the clmt becomes harsher and energy bills horrible, we need sealed houses anyway. What we need are passive solutions for sealed houses that make them inhabitable again. The stone and brick houses require a lot of energy and an ageing person needs higher indoor temperatures.
https://youtu.be/t9uODlMrRTg
We can not go back, you must leave your house and built a new one from new materials or refurbish it or at least a part of it somehow. The high energy prices hit everyone, as such was the past: the energy was not cheap. You had a lot of forests, but that was not the civilization, but the wilderness suitable only for the young, strong and healthy.
The Green Energy Revolution is near impossible.
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/green-energy-revolution-near-impossible
Due to the poor power density of intermittent renewables and the poor energy density of batteries, replacing fossil fuels with RE will require 6 times more copper than the entire world has mined to date. For many important resources, reserves are only a few percent of what would be required.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/08/23/is-there-enough-metal-to-replace-oil/
yes the world should give up on RE and burn all available FF pedal to the metal.
Pedal to the metal is an entirely unnecessary attribute. Humans have gone pedal to the metal with every resource since the mastodons. It’s what humans do.
Lots of interesting points, such as this in the Manhattan Institute Report:
50-100 pounds??!? That number sounds way low to me. Maybe once the material is found But I believe much more material has to be removed before they can even get close
Copper, hopper, phooey, it’s still FF party time.
Time to lay down some donuts in my V8. It’s now or never!
Clif High points out that the Boston University 80% lethal strain is only that lethal to bio-engineered mice deficient in vitamin D. I would love to know the lethality on normal mice with vitamin D.
These GOFs are just synthetic exosomes (‘viruses’) calibrated in ways as to maximize the effectiveness of the message. And then they artificially bomb the shit out of the test subjects with these exosomes. Which is exactly what the mRNA vaxxxes do, nanolipid notwithstanding. They bomb the shit out of the human with the artificial message, via the natural polymerase chain reaction, to make shitloads of highly inappropriate proteins. The bomb drops are them fucking with evolution. Our bodies have no choice but to regard them as natural evolutionary phenomena coming from the ecology. Gene therapy is a euphemism for genetic modification. Genetic modifications, natural or forced, are inflection points in evolution, though not irreversible.
It makes sense what Clif points out, and speaks to what I said yesterday regarding gene expression in the context of that weak genetic study on ‘bubonic plague’ survivors. If these mice have been modified for vit D deficiencies then they have serious health problems, by definition, and they’re in triage mode. Bomb the shit out of them with a carefully calibrated/tweaked/’chimeric’ exosome that overwhelms that triage plan and most of the mice can’t cope with that on top of the lousy hand they’ve been dealt – their degenerate bloodlines, their modification, their diet, their solitary confinement.
They’re gauging tolerances. And they’re promoting the germ theory fear program. The level at which they bomb the test subjects with synthetic exosomes cannot be reproduced in the open environment.
Much like how they starve and poison monkey kidney cells in a petri dish and then add a toxic sludge sample to test for pathogenicity. Conclusion: a virus did it!
Yeah, in those cases they are growing disease related exosomes (‘viruses’) by putting the cells in deleterious situations. Cell make different exosomes for different traumas, so that they can communicate the nature of the trauma to neighboring cells. Because multicellular organisms are just cell cultures out of which emerged a multicellular consciousness. Cell culture plus multicellular consciousness equals a multicellular organism.
Virology’s job is to batch analyze, with farmed pcr testing (farmed because these tests entail the growing of genetic material in polymerase exactly like what happens in the cell), all of the different RNA strands (after denaturing the membrane and capsid) and sort the different kinds by population size so that they can’t start figuring out which traumatic variables correlate with which exosome.
Through exhaustive trial and error via tweaking traumatic variables, the labs pattern (piece together) classes of exosomes that correspond to particular symptomologies – cold, flu, hypoxemia, etc. When they get a class of exosomes dialed-in they have their ‘virus.’ Because they have everything ass-backwards and that what they think it is. There’s nothing special about what they do. They just have big budgets, use repetition, and observe cause and effect in the petri dish ecology by running it all through the PCR test and computer algorithms.
Attenuated ‘viral’ vaccines are just exosome bombs in a poisonous solution. Since the exosomes and the poisons come as a package the body is forced to associate these exosome with harm/trauma, and since the body is intelligent and not into self-harm, it
will refuse to heed and make these exosomes itself, meaning that it will refuse to use the related symptomology (healing pathway) in the future. That’s how vaccinal symptom suppression works to the extent that it does.
The Kaufman and Cowan club refuse to acknowledge any if this because if exosomes can be identified and characterized then it ‘means’ so can ‘viruses.’ They’re a bunch of little bitches.
For some reasons we seem to live in a pretty fucked up environment.
That’s reasons with an s alright.
That may be so but both of them have clearly stated that if anyone can prove the existence of “viruses” they would gladly accept that position.
At the end of the day… I don’t think anyone needs to worry about these things. People need to live their lives without fear of death around every corner.
That is good to hear:
“The level at which they bomb the test subjects with synthetic exosomes cannot be reproduced in the open environment.”
Good point1 Maybe it is vitamin D level that matters.
The question was asked yesterday about whether there is sufficient uranium to support a global scale up of nuclear fission for electricity production. This MIT paper provides the answer.
https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/MITEI-The-Future-of-the-Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle.pdf
A 1-GWe nuclear reactor, consumes about 30 tonnes of enriched uranium each year. To produce this, some 200 tonnes of natural uranium is needed. Global uranium resources, with uranium ore concentration >0.1%, amount to about 80 million tonnes of uranium. Nuclear power currently produces 10% of global electricity from about 400GWe of generating capacity. We can therefore expect that there is sufficient uranium to meet existing fuel needs for roughly 1000 years, or 100 years if nuclear power were to generate the entirety of the world’s electricity.
Used in a once through cycle, nuclear fission fuel reserves have similar abundance to coal. However, unlike coal, there is the option for closing the fuel cycle. The fusion-fission hybrid reactor is being discussed as an option for breeding fissile plutonium to produce MOX fuel and as a means to dispose of long-lived actinide wastes, which it could use as fuel. This is a near term technological option, as a fusion reactor only needs to reach breakeven to produce enough neutrons to drive a hybrid. However, the relative abundance of uranium and the tiny volume of long-lived radioactive wastes mean that pursuing a hybrid is not an urgent priority.
The problem with reserve studies like this is they look at one variable at a time. The system can collapse for many reasons, working together, just as a human can die for many reasons besides starvation.
A lack of globalization will bring the uranium production system down. A lack of diesel will bring the system down. Huge problems with spent fuel ponds will bring the nuclear production system down. Right now, Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium, and Russia is the world’s largest processor of uranium. We are probably kidding ourselves if we think that this can continue.
Reprocessing is even more fragile than mining and processing uranium.
A breakdown in global trade and international cooperation could certainly impede development of uranium resources and many other resources. And it isn’t just energy resource depletion that is bringing this about. Demographic ageing could lead to the breakdown of the globalised system all on its own. Energy resource depletion is another pressure on top of that.
I am less certain that there are any fundamental problems with fuel ponds or reprocessing that would prevent the realisation of a closed fuel cycle. The problems here are more political and economic. Fuel has been cheap enough that there havn’t been any commercial pressures for recycling. And politics has is generally been against it in most western countries.
But it isn’t technically difficult. Spent fuel is dissolved in nitric acid and actinides are seperated from fission products using a number of organic and inorganic solvents. If the US decided that it needed a fuel recycling programme, it could probably be up and running within an election cycle. But there aren’t any commercial reasons for it at present.
Yes, technically it is not difficult.
Could you please register a company for that and hire me next Monday?
One also has to consider the availability of people with the technical capacity to run these systems. In many fields, it seems as though experienced personnel are being intentionally run out or there is simply attrition.
It is cheaper to have one experienced person oversee a staff of very low-paid helpers. This sort of works, until the experienced person retires or dies.
Not sure about that, political types seem to be able to tell probable, convincing stories based in narrative, problem is they don’t work.
Technical skills are very difficult to learn and maintaining them is a real challenge.
Dennis L.
Everything further away than the end of my whip does not work.
If it has been done, it can be done. WWII, Nagasaki went up without globalization.
Dennis L.
‘The Rage Would Come Out of Nowhere’: Personality Change Has Emerged as a Symptom of Long Covid
One July day in 2020, Julie Fallon, a second-grade teacher from Massachusetts, found herself standing in a dumpster in her driveway, shaking and enraged. She doesn’t remember what had triggered her anger that summer afternoon, but recalls reaching for the nearest items and smashing them against the other contents. “I wasn’t really sure if it was real or a dream,” she tells Rolling Stone. “I felt as if I were watching someone else do these things.”
Something similar had happened a few weeks prior, when Fallon was filling out paperwork online, and struggled to figure out part of the form. “The rage would come out of nowhere,” she says. “I would go from zero to 100 in two seconds.” First she started hyperventilating. “Then, before I even had time to think,” she says, “I was watching myself pick up the laptop and slam it on the concrete counter with a force so strong it terrified me.”
Fallon’s path to the dumpster began on March 15th, 2020: the onset of her Covid-19 symptoms. She initially felt better after eight days of bedrest, but on March 31st, she began to experience an onslaught of neurological and psychiatric symptoms, including extreme fatigue and exhaustion so crippling she would almost pass out. “During this time my personality was flat,” she says. “I was apathetic and didn’t really have much emotion. Covid-19 had hijacked my brain.”
But a far more jarring shift soon followed, which caused the normally mild-mannered educator to lapse into bursts of explosive anger and rage. “It was shocking to me,” she says. “My whole life I’ve worked with children, and I’m patient as the day is long. And here I am smashing computers. Here I am in a dumpster, smashing things. And I don’t know why.”
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/long-covid-symptom-personality-change-1243718/
I’m thinking … spike protein the brain… causing mental illness… including unprovoked bursts of anger.
Let’s find her and mate her with norm our resident Boosted Stud and see what we get!
mike – you get to supervise
The rage was probably caused by incorrect use of gender pronouns and insufficient diversity.
US DoD: “Correct use of gender pronouns increases force lethality”.
Business Insider
Jeff Bezos responds to criticism over investing in space travel instead of solving problems on Earth: ‘We go to space not to abandon our home, but to protect it’
Britney Nguyen
Tue, October 18, 2022 at 5:50 PM
https://news.yahoo.com/jeff-bezos-responds-criticism-over-215058252.html
We go to space not to abandon our home but to protect it,” he said.
Bezos said that energy from the sun can be collected “in almost unlimited amounts,” and can be used with other resources in space “without harming the Earth.”
“Earth is a garden that should be tended,” he said.
Bezos founded aerospace company Blue Origin in 2000. He said in his speech Friday that he was “determined early on to build a path to space,” noting that as a child he watched Star Trek, made models, and turned his “garage into a laboratory for all kinds of contraptions.” Blue Origin’s motto is “For the Benefit of the Earth.”
The goal for Blue Origin, Bezos has previously said, is to make traveling to space cheaper, more frequent, and more accessible. Blue Origin builds, tests, and launches rockets that are reusable.
Bezos founded the Bezos Earth Fund in 2020, which will disburse $10 billion, committed by Bezos, in the current decade to fight climate change and protect nature. He serves as the executive chair of the fund.
In his speech to the Vatican, Bezos said the fund is working on making “50 key transitions” dealing with climate, nature, and development, including the decarbonization of steel and cement, and “empowering Indigenous communities to manage tropical forests.”
Strange way of rationalization…like Jay Hanson pointed out we act and afterwards justify what we do…
Bezos idea stems from the work of the late Princeton physicist Gerard O’Neill. Solar power satellites constructed in space in geostationary orbit around Earth, are in sunlight for ~95% of time. And the sun is blocked out for short predictable intervals, making storage requirements easy. In space, a solar power plant does not need to contend with gravity or atmospheric effects. So it can be slender and lightweight compared to Earth based equivalents. Because their orbits are geostationary, they appear to hang over a single point on Earth surface. O’Neill’s idea was to beam solar electricity to reciever stations on Earth surface using microwaves.
This idea is technically possible. But an SPS delivering 5GWe of power, would still mass several thousand tonnes. For this idea to be workable, it would need to be constructed in space using materials mined from the moon. NASA are planning to return to the moon relatively soon and Elon Musk is close to completing his reusable Starship heavy lift rocket. So setting up a mining and manufacturing operation for SPS is possible, but the investments required woukd run into hundreds of billions of dollars just to set up that kind of infrastructure. I doubt that even Bezos and Musk have sufficient wealth to pull that off. And their objectives aren’t sufficiently aligned to allow colaboration.
Gee wiz
this scientist says can’t get by van Allen belt:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B3qClCOQyQk
“He did not admit that we cannot get past van allen belts, it is well documented that it is possible. What he is explaining is that they need to check whether the shielding on board that Orion capsule is working properly and wont endanger the crew. The shielding is going to be different on every craft so every craft needs rigorous testing. “
hahahaha… but we did it in the 60’s… so what’s to work on?
Oh right … all the plans and original film from those missions – was thrown away … cuz they were taking up too much space… hahaha At least that’s what NASA says on American Moon hahahahaha
The same people who believe we’ve walked on the moon believe the boosters are safe and effective hahahahaa and the Tesla is their favourite car!
So which were the missions that placed the reflectors on the Moon?
In your own words or even quote ‘someone’. Paste the exact quote and source!
If you would watch this they explain that away
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpuKu3F0BvY
But of course you won’t watch it
In your own words or even quote ‘someone’. Paste the exact quote and source!
I see nothing in your own words or even quote ‘someone’. Paste the exact quote and source!’
I win’!
Check this out … hahahahaha You really cannot make this up .. this is straight out of Idiocracy … ok guys — get some tin foil and busted shopping cards — and cardboard – don’t forget the card board… and here’s a drawing – make something that looks like that … yes you can use tape to hold it together…
3 days later — looks good enough … space is harsh so that will explain why some of the card board is falling off … drag it out here… action camera lights camera action lights action — Neil will you put that f789ing whisky bottle away for the shot!! You can drink once we finish this scene.
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY?t=4491
I love how man has supposedly achieved the greatest scientific accomplishment in man’s history…going to the moon…and they “lose” the recordings and designs! LOL
These recordings, designs, and documentation would have been the most priceless artifacts..carefully archived in our most prestigious museums, preserved for study and analysis.
And they were casually lost. RUBBISH.
I for one, would like to assess the design of the lunar lander. I would like to perform an FEA analysis of it and study its superior and cutting edge features. Being a battery and power expert, I would like to access how they achieved, powering an environmental control system, telecommunications, life providing energy, vacuum pumps for egress into the lunar environment, etc and crammed all the SH*T into that gradeschool design that sits in NASA facility museums now.
Can’t unfortunately…cause they “lost” it.
Here is the part in question … Grumman chose to get rid of them because they took up too much space. Why didn’t they donate them to museums around the world?
Why would NASA not build their own museum and display all this stuff hahaha… and yet … the f789ing MORE-ONS will not see…
Oh and the original film has been lost of Armstrong’s walk hahaha
This is not stoopidity …. this is something far more profound than that… I don’t think there is even a word to describe people like norm who cannot see … it is not an IQ thing.. a 7 yr old could be made to understand we have not been on the moon
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY?t=5426
you came on duty early today/tomorrow eddy
8 . 06am
nothing like dedication
norm – if you watch the clip you will see that NASA admits they lost the footage and that they junked all the documents due to lack of space. That is NOT a conspiracy theory.
How does your mind process this? How do you explain it?
Recently I showed this video to a MORE-ON… he didn’t think anything of it… didn’t think that it seems to depict a false flag operation … https://www.tiktok.com/@jakevsthestate/video/7071401414202903809
As CTG suggests — we are involved in some sort of simulation — norm has irrefutable evidence in American Moon … but no matter what we show norm — he cannot see… it is impossible… his programming will not allow it.
It’s like trying to force a chicken to howl like a dog… it is not possible.
Let’s look at the LEM .. it’s made of cardboard and tinfoil … some pieces are falling off:
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY?t=4491
It’s the same with trying to turn a CovIDIOT… it is impossible.
So which were the missions that placed the reflectors on the Moon?
In your own words or even quote ‘someone’. Paste the exact quote and source!
They debunk that here
https://youtu.be/KpuKu3F0BvY
Ha ha ha..
Check out this Musk amuse-bouche (short enough at 5′): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HAStj34Le4U
All about Elan Musk!
A toothsome entrée:
Is Spacex facing bankruptcy?! (25 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EojxThnDPng
I’d never really heard these people speak before. Listen to the tone of voice that Musk and Shotwell unconsciously use: tenuous. They themselves don’t even sound convinced of what they are saying, so I’m not sure why anyone else believes it.
If the allegations are true, I imagine we will be hearing more about SpaceX’s problems in the near future.
Corbett offers the main course (60 min.):
https://corbettreport.substack.com/p/meet-elon-musk-technocractic-huckster
I am a believer, move industrialization off earth, it is our home. I know, it can’t be done, etc., etc. Mostly it is simple engineering and determination.
Climate is changing, don’t know we can do much about it except adapt.
Dennis L.
Moon Photographs—Expert Analysis (21min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDggkBUSZl8
Came across this recently. One thing that wasn’t mentioned is that, while they made claims about the film *substrate* withstanding temperature extremes, NASA said nothing about the *emulsion* (which is the only active, and extremely delicate, part).
The more I follow this hoax, the more incredible it is to me that *anyone* believes any of it, much less that engineers would!
====
Though this seems like a trivial topic, I can’t stress enough how important understanding these hoaxes is.
It’s important (to me, anyway) to fully comprehend the depth and breadth of the fakery.
It’s international and multi-generational.
Most of the frauds interlock with each other.
It’s almost more than the mind can grasp.
The Black Death is still affecting the human immune system
By Katie Hunt, CNN
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/10/19/world/black-death-plague-immune-system-scn-wellness/index.html
Researchers used DNA extracted from teeth of people who died before, during and after the Black Death pandemic.
“We are the descendants of those that survived past pandemics … and understanding the evolutionary mechanisms that contributed to our survival is not only important from a scientific viewpoint, but can also inform on the mechanisms and genetic determinants of present-day susceptibility to disease,” said study coauthor Luis Barreiro, a professor of genetic medicine at University of Chicago, via email.
Plague pit specimens
The seven-year study involved the extraction of DNA isolated from three different groups of skeletal remains unearthed in London and Denmark: Plague victims, those who died before the Black Death and those who died between 10 and 100 years after the plague struck.
More than 300 samples came from London, a city hit particularly hard by the plague, including from individuals buried in the East Smithfield plague pits used for mass burials at the height of the outbreak in 1348-1349. Another 198 samples were taken from human remains buried in five locations in Denmark.
DNA was extracted from dentine in the roots of individuals’ teeth, and researchers were also able to check for the presence of Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes plague. They then searched for signs of genetic adaption to the disease.
“It’s a LONG process, but in the end you have the sequence of those genes for those people from before, during and after the plague and you can ask: Do the genes one population carried looked different than the ones another population carried,” said coauthor Hendrik Poinar, a professor of anthropology at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario in an email.
The team pinpointed a variant of one particular gene, known as ERAP 2, that appeared to have a strong association with the plague. Before the Black Death, the variant of ERAP2 found to be protective of the plague was found in 40% of individuals included in the London study. After the Black Death, it was 50%. In Denmark, the percentile disparity was starker — it changed from about 45% of samples buried before the plague to 70% buried afterwards.
The team don’t yet know exactly why this variant conferred protection, but their lab experiments in cultured cells indicated that, in people with the ERAP 2 variant, an immune cell known as a macrophage provoked a very different response to Yersinia pestis, Barreiro explained. Macrophages from individuals with the variant were better able to kill the bacteria in lab experiments than from macrophages from individuals lacking it.
“We do not know if it still protects against the plague given that the number of cases in present day populations is very low but we speculated that it should,” he said. It’s also likely that the variant is beneficial against other pathogens — although this wasn’t part of the research.
Very interesting research…right Edwin?
I can imagine that the Black Plague could influence the genetics of people living afterward.
The underlings didn’t trust her.
Her overlords tried to truss her.
So after six weeks in the hot seat, she is saying, “Blow this for a game of soldiers,” or words to that effect.
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announces resignation
Truss says she will stand down as leader of the Conservative Party, triggering a contest to elect her successor.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-resigns-2
Not surprising. It is pretty clear which direction the UK is going. Being in charge would lead others to blame her for the outcome.
She didn’t send enough money and weapons to Ukraine, so the curse of Zelensky claimed another victim.
RIP lettuce Liz.
My opinion on the many articles and news coming out on shale oil/gas in Europe and UK.
1. Like the spent fuel ponds, won’t it be better if ahh these (casting of spent fuel and drilling for shale gas/oil) is done when we have a lot FF and not now when things are at the verge of collapse?
2. It does have a soothing effect for the sheep “that all is well. We have taken care of it” it is like the news that the abattoir is really comfy for the animals and they should look forward to it.
I am sure you have that feeling. No?
Regarding your first point, this global, inverted perestroika we are in the early stages of is a process. And it needs to be a relatively seamless one or chaotic collapse ensues. Right now they are still fully dependent on the consumer economy which requires maximum output feathered up and down (more down than up) by crisis mechanisms and also requires collective suspended disbelief that collapse is obviously staring us in the face, so that everyone doesn’t race for the financial exits.
Dealing with the spent fuel can only happen during the next stair step down, when grids have proven themselves to be sufficiently unreliable but there is still sufficient productive capacity to get the job done. I expect the next stair step down to be the last one down to the cliff’s edge .could be wrong.
I’m seeing the same here I look to mainstream media to see what they are spreading https://www.npr.org/2022/10/13/1128907257/why-oil-shocks-are-getting-less-shocking
There was another story on how good the u.s economy is doing and people just can’t see it?!? I guess it could be due to an election year. Might be all of the master plan. I remember in 2008 they were so scared people were like I don’t care what you do just make the pain go away….
I heard a story just the other day that car sales are so high right now in this booming economy…. I don’t see it. They say housing is 20 percent of the u.s gdp I think it’s much higher than that!!!
Shale oil and gas in the Europe and the UK would take quite a while to develop. There likely would be a need for pipelines and maybe refineries. At best, it would take several years, and then probably not last very long. But the story does provide hope.
Here is some energy/inflation news from the UK. My son-in-law, a big strapping former semi pro soccer goalie, was hungry and wanted to order in pizza before he went to work at 4:00 in the afternoon. His wife told him no, but to fill his stomach with potatoes which they had in the house.
It is getting real there in the UK for working families. They get 66 lbs a month electricity bill subsidy now. Soon, even that will not be enough to help.
The UK is doomed. It will go mad-max one of these days.
I witnessed a conversation between a couple here in the USA two days ago. The woman felt she was a bad cook/homemaker. Apologizing. Only potatos for dinner tonight.
The peasant common bag of Potatoes has shot up in price too.
Lucky for me there is an outlet store that sells excess produce and able to pick a 5lb bag for $2.00 and not over $5.00 plus at Publix Supermarket.
Just about everything is much more expensive now..
Carrots, Cauliflower, Spinach Roma tomatoes and sweet peppers with zucchini are mostly in my shopping bag now ..
Can’t really grow that much here in South Florida with the bugs and heat..maybe Okra and tomatoes .
Lots of fruit trees Mango Avocado
I have the popcorn ready.
Moderna is working on a mRNA vaccine in order to repair damages caused by mRNA vaccine… the one against Covid-19 (and it is not a joke).
(Although they put it differently, of course..)
https://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/le-pdg-de-moderna-annonce-de-nouvelles-injections-arn-messager
Self defeating to trust those who consciously broke it already.
Strange!
This is one of these things where I think they just do it to humiliate us.
So much for uncensored Telegram https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/51871
AND ITS A UNANIMOUS DECISION….THE CORRUPT AND FALLEN CDC VOTE TO ADD THE COVID VACCINE TO THE CHILDHOOD SCHEDULE…
All but the very rare child in America, down to 6 months of age is now MANDATED TO BE VACCINATED WITH COVID INJECTIONS.
https://beckernews.com/breaking-cdc-panel-unanimously-votes-to-add-covid-19-shots-to-childhood-vaccines-schedule-47528/
Wow… so I assume they will need the injection to go to school etc…
A whole new level of crazy — that if one does not acknowledge this is an extermination campaign.
And how will the parents respond to this blatant effort to murder and maim their progeny Why is Mr DNA not responding to this threat to his survival?
The self-organizing system behaves strangely. Perhaps we don’t really understand what DNA changes are needed. Maybe the net result will be a remnant that survives that will somehow be better able to tolerate future conditions, or somehow otherwise is better adapted to the future situation. There are many things we cannot understand.
They are clearly making mass experiments on people, with those who are in charge to take decisions being fully confident to be able to avoid those experiments on their children.
Considering self-organizing systems and stupid human behaviours, that reminds to me the famous Camorra’s decisions to bury waste of chemical drums under farm-lands which were not so distant where Camorra’s leaders themeselves actually lived.
They were sure not to eat that food…
But actually when you pollute the system, the consequences arrive anyway directly to you, for instance with groundwater pollution…
Example of that behaviour:
http://www.corriereortofrutticolo.it/2013/10/14/campania-gli-ortaggi-contaminati-nella-terra-dei-fuochi/
Gail, thank you for that insight….perhaps it is something we don’t know or understand…maybe it is a way to prepare….
In all honesty, don’t know what Edwin is harping about since the human numbers will decline no matter what.
If life is going to be short and brutal afterwards ….might best be injected with the vaccine unknowingly it is harmful and die in that manner; avoiding ROF stage.
Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century will be Nasty, Brutish, and Short
3,692 views · 8 years ago
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5BK921Gy67A&t=2518s
On April 3, 2014, David Archibald discussed his new book “Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century will be Nasty, Brutish, and Short.”
About the book
Baby boomers enjoyed the most benign period in human history: fifty years of relative peace, cheap energy, plentiful grain supply, and a warming climate due to the highest solar activity for 8,000 years. The party is over-prepare for the twilight of abundance.
About the author
David Archibald is a Perth-based scientist working in the fields of oil exploration, medical research, climate science, and energy. A true polymath, his achievements include pioneering the study of how climate change is linked to the solar cycle. Through his work both in oil exploration, and as a stockbroker in Sydney, he has developed an intricate understanding of how climate, energy, and the economy interact. Mr. Archibald uses this knowledge to make predictions about how the forces already in motion in the global economy and climate will affect the future prosperity and security of the world. He is the 2008 winner of the Iowahawk Earth Week Cruise-In.
Norm, you may want to look at this video
He had to ruin it and add a fairy tale ending … if he’d have left that out I might have bought this
Baby boomers enjoyed the most benign period in human history: fifty years of relative peace, cheap energy, plentiful grain supply, and a warming climate due to the highest solar activity for 8,000 years. The party is over—prepare for the twilight of abundance.
David Archibald reveals the grim future the world faces on its current trajectory: massive fuel shortages, the bloodiest warfare in human history, a global starvation crisis, and a rapidly cooling planet. Archibald combines pioneering science with keen economic knowledge to predict the global disasters that could destroy civilization as we know it—disasters that are waiting just around the corner.
But there’s good news, too: We can have a good future if we prepare for it. Advanced, civilized countries can have a permanently high standard of living if they choose to invest in the technologies that will get them there. Archibald, a climate scientist as well as an inventor and a financial specialist, explains which scientific breakthroughs can save civilization in the coming crisis—if we can cut through the special interest opposition to these innovations and allow free markets to flourish.
All those who take the mRNA are now marked by the demiurge. None will survive.
The epigenetic forces of this double resetwill be epic…. the handful that survive will manifest incredible changes.
I will soon put aside this device. It’s messages tell me nothing I don’t already know, and that’s not much.
Yes, You are correct..None will Survive….which reminds me…
No One Here Gets Out Alive: The Celebrated Biography of Jim Morrison
I had read this when it first came out amid the mojo rising-morrison is still alive hysteria. I enjoyed it then as I did the Doors music so I decided to read this book again 38 years later. This is a revised edition with a new foreword, epilogue , video list, new photos and updated discography and book list. As a younger reader I remember thinking that Morrisons’ drunken antics were funny and cool, now I view it more as a waste of talent. Jim Morrison was an intelligent sensitive man who seemed to have a problem with authority and was always pushing the limits. I find it strange that upon the release of the Doors first album and the ensuing fame, he claimed his parents were dead. He was a student of Philosophy and a constant reader who filled notebooks which became songs and poems. This book goes into detail describing the rise and fall of Jim Morrision and the Doors, his drinking, drug use and outrageous performances leading to his arrest and eventual conviction ,escape to Paris and his controversial death. Dying at age 27 Jim Morrison life and death is an alternately fascinating and sad tale. As you read it, you know the ending but you wonder what might have been if he had not been so self-destructive or had someone intervened.Jim Morrison and the Doors music lives on and they and him in particular left quite a mark on society. Unfortunately this story still occurs with other stars. Jim Morrison quoted the Philosopher William Blake, “the road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom.” Morrison lived his life according to that quote, he tried to break on through to the other side but he left us way too early. Recommended.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-reviews/R29W01N2QNXPW/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0760706182
Yes, we all exit the DOOR….just when is ?????
I am my own door.
Nice, all one can do is point to the Door to others
@Herbie
Others have their own door.
If they want to find it, open it and go through is up to them.
This is NOT my job!
Fancy this:
For those It’s NOT my job
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=69vvxM0Mg3Q
But someone’s got to do it..
Why does a flower bloom?
Krishnamurti
Having observed Neil Young embarrass himself promoting the injections …. I am sceptical of any of these rock star/poets having profound insights.
Your posts will be missed. You keep things interesting.
I hold slim hope that the Elders have worked out how to maintain BAU with 90% less people and the the shots are an intelligence test.
That would make is very difficult for norm as it would shatter the delusions that he holds about this … capabilities.
One way or the other taking those shots is a badge of stoopidity
Are you saying…. the injected.. are f789ed?
hahahahaa
I don’t think they’ll all die.
“Broken Bioweapon Is Safer”
https://www.bitchute.com/video/8tbOPuO0jyuV/
The device is my electronic campfire.
Everyone I know is at least double jabbed.
I don’t see anyone dropping dead.
There were a few bad reactions (as is expected) during the intial rollout. Some very healthy people were left almost crippled.
Beyond that, there has been a noticeable uptick in leg problems. The cause is always deemed to be something other than clotting eg. a diabetic ulcer, varicose vein, smoking, etc.
Other than that, they’re all doing fine.
“Other than that, they’re all doing fine.”
Hurrah an optimist! We need more of those on here, freakin’ doomers everywhere.
Remember Planet of the Apes… weren’t the humans that survived the bomb turned into horrifying genetic deviants?
Probably better than our current trajectory … worm like blobs addicted to gaming and social media
SIDS outbreak incoming. Rhymes with kids. Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. As I learned from a recent NPR radio show “We can look forward to lots of videos of twitching babies. The far right anti vax movement uses videos of twitching babies to spread misinformation.”
Adding the ‘Injection’ to childhood schedule locks in indemnity for the product!
Forget Oil, The Real Crisis Is Diesel Inventories: The US Has Just 25 Days Left
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-oil-real-crisis-diesel-inventories-us-has-just-25-days-left
What is the saying in America on something that just whacked out from nowhere? I think is it “being hit by the green or left field?”
Or are we going to have another Panama or Sri Lanka? Maybe Credit Suisse first or the Germans freezing first?
unexpected = “out of left field” but some think it’s “out of right field”, comes from the sport of baseball.
anyway, 25 days from now, I “expect” the diesel supply will still be Just 25 Days Left.
but something to keep my eye on.
gee, WW3 would solve so many problems.
The 25 days left of diesel is, to a significant extent, the result of the US letting out something like 500,000 barrels a day of heavy, sour oil from the SPR, to use to use in making diesel and jet fuel. Once the SPR is depleted of heavy, sour oil, and has only light fracked oil left, it will be hard to make nearly as much diesel and jet fuel.
@CTG:
“It’s always 25 days left”, yawn.
Or two days… or till the weekend…
Leaving us disappointed over and over
We use fuel oil to heat our current house. It used to track more or less along with gasoline, a tad higher, but now there’s a huge disconnect. I paid $5.53/gal a couple of days ago, while gasoline has been in the mid $3.00 range. In 2016, the difference was only .10/gal. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_r1x_w.htm
Gail, my news feed popped your article up on Oil price.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Worlds-Economy-Needs-Fossil-Fuels-To-Thrive.html
Very nice 👍 and needs to.be read more…
Oil Price copies over quite a few of my articles. They always change the name of the article. There is also an energy site called “Talk Markets” that copies over a lot of my articles. This time, my article was an “Editor’s Choice” on that forum.
norm has a side gig with oil price?
Van life is just ‘glorified homelessness,’ says a 33-year-old woman who tried the nomadic lifestyle and ended up broke
Natasha Scott embarked on van life as a digital nomad, but her experience was nothing like social media told her it would be.
BY CHLOE BERGER
October 18, 2022 2:05 PM E
Romanticized as a magical, simplistic way of life, it was enough to pull Scott in. A former pilot recruiter with a small business on the side, she often daydreamed about trying out the nomadic lifestyle after watching the #vanlife videos that littered her “for you” pages on YouTube and TikTok.
She finally took the plunge after receiving a notice last year that the rent on her one-bedroom apartment was increasing. She used her savings to buy a non-converted van (it wasn’t outfitted with carpeting and plumbing) for $5,000.
But Scott soon found that the reality of van life wasn’t all that sunny, and she began
documenting how her idyllic lifestyle turned sour on the TikTok account
@nomadgonewrong, renaming her account this month to @nomadgoneright. Gas was high, it was lonely on the road, and the van often needed repairs, she said. It all put her on edge.
…..
Right now, she continues to post content that documents her experience, pushing back against the one-sided narrative she believes permeates TikTok. She’s given up van life, saying that she lost money from the whole venture in the end. She is currently living in a hostel, saving up for an apartment, looking to go back to school to major in a more stable field like UX design or tech, and trying to rebuild her life.
A History of Crime: Fines PFIZER has paid between 2002 & 2009
2002: $49 Million
2004: $430 Million
2007: $34.7 Million
2009: $2.3 Billion for Medical Fraud
How many companies do you know could survive after all these criminal fines AND then release a product that was mandated? https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/51866
I have a better question — if Fizzer is so powerful that they can control all governments and force them to inject the Vid shots… why did they not use their power to not pay those fines?
“Australia to Pay Funeral Expenses of Those Who DIED From Mandatory Vaccine“
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/australia-oceania/australia-to-pay-funeral-expenses-of-those-who-died-from-mandatory-vaccine/
Good move!
They’re Jedi’s, but their power’s only effective on stupid people, They can’t completely destroy the manipulable, because then no one will take their crap and the fines are a eugenics tax in disguise. That’s the only way the governments can swing it under the carpet.
Anyway go about your business, these are not the side effects you’re looking for.
This caught my eye.
iowa #movin
I Drove Through the WORST Place In Iowa | Midwest Road Trip Day 15
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r-aulBKQSVo&t=670s
This is what economic collapse looks like..
Unimpressed. Michigan and the rust belt along I-94 connecting Detroit to Chicago has looked worse than that for decades. Parts of the Appalachians look worse still
True enough…this guy has a YouTube channel that features them too….I posted this because was surprised that these Mississippi river towns were in such dire straits…
Though I like Red Wing and Winona Minnesota…very nice still.
Jordan Peterson … I’ve had a similar experience with ketamine – and others who have tried report going into ‘the k hole’… which is a very real alternative reality
https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/51840
When Mad Max arrives — this is the sort that will be on the lose https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40808
They’ll be hungry…
Yes, this is very frequent, from what I see on the news, also in Italy.
In my view, it represents a sort of sign of return to primitive behaviours.
Behaviours probably next to paleolithic or neolithic ones.
Because if we consider ancient cultures, ancient Greeks, ancient Romans or ancient Vikings and so on, it was considered highly coward to fight against someone with the protection of a herd.
When I was young one could be bullied, but by the strongest of the group.
Now teenegers are not ashamed to attack a single person with a great number.
It has been completely lost the meaning of being valiant.
My impression is that in paleolithic or neolithic group, what expressed in the video above, was probably the typical way to take it out on someone.
You don’t have the faintest idea of what you’re talking about.
This is not an appropriate way to object to what someone else is saying. How about, “Do you have any links to support your assertions?”
Understood Gail. I’m not interested in links. I assumed that my simple rebuke would be widely recognized as justifiable for obvious reasons.
Unfounded prejudices against peoples living outside of civilization (“primitives/paleolithics”) — the seeing of them as less than human animals — become unfounded prejudices against peoples living inside of civilization.
Group-based male physical punishment is a universal human phenomenon, and it is a separate phenomenon from a ‘fair fight,’ which is also a universal human phenomenon. Ganging up on someone happens when that someone did something beyond the pale that affects the whole group. Usually it’s a territorial infraction of some sort, because we’re a highly territorial species, and I have no doubt that if Student, here — Mr Valiant — had someone break into his house he would call a gang of men with guns to come deal with them.
I can believe such a change is taking place. It would be the kind of change a person might expect in a “musical chairs” kind of response to resource shortages.
Yes, Gail, thank you for the way you want things should be argumented and proved here.
I fully agree.
About your point, I believe me too that it is correlated with ‘musical chairs’ theory.
In my view, it is also probably connected to the issue that our current societies are filled with technology, but emptied of culture.
A less developed and small-scale agropastoralist society can have a better organization of internal violence among its own components than simple primordial lynchings among them.
The Study below is only an example about regulated duels.
There are various anthropological studies about that, also quoted in that research.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/3773815
https://www.mediastorehouse.com/ardea-wildlife-pets/dec2014/2/ethiopia-ceremony-donga-surma-tribe-10491366.html?nochkip=1&pid=80442
What do you mean by “return” of primitive behaviours?
https://youtu.be/ypEaGQb6dJk
Have we been lied to on EVERY single aspect of SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19? Evidence now that U.S. D.O.D issued a contract for COVID-19 Research to a company in Ukraine 3 months before COVID-19 known to exist
11th February 2020 WHO came forward with name ‘COVID-19’ but U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) awarded contract on 12th November 2019 to Labyrinth Global Health INC. for ‘COVID-19 Research’; Ukraine?
https://palexander.substack.com/p/have-we-been-lied-to-on-every-single
When another conspiracy suspicion .. becomes fact.
The CovCON has been in the planning for many years
How about finding a forum for people wanting to discuss corona measures and vaccines – instead of ENERGY ISSUES and the following consequence in everyday life.
Not all of us sit in NZ like you, others like me sit in Central Europe (Austria) and are interested in energy news, whether or not the bell tolls for us all too soon.
Sucks not to have control.
Something we all have to get used I am afraid.
Guess that’s what the ancient stoics, buddhists and so on delivered to us: to accept powerlessness in the face of the cosmos, except for the power over or own actions and mostly reactions, our conscious power over these increases when progressing in meditation and the shaping of the mind.
Opening a history book, that dry variety with only short statements to what happened in a region at a time, you see cities sacked and burned, the people never had much of a choice or control.
Western comfort just gave many this illusion – that comfort for a time means control over one’s own fate.
The religions/’philisophies’ you mentioned weren’t programming people to accept their powerlessness over the cosmos lol. They were programming them to accept, in servility, their rank servitude to the State. The ‘powerlessness over the cosmos’ is the marketing campaign. You shouldn’t still be falling for that marketing campaign. You seem to half-recognize it when you reference cities getting sacked and burned (State-level warfare) but you miss the big picture.
In the UK the majority of people still believe that the government can fix anything, for example by making high energy prices illegal.
And most people believe democracy would be a good thing! Can you imagine
The corona measures seem to have a lot to do with “keeping people at home.” Or preventing people from traveling long distance. These really are energy-related, even though the don’t look energy related. Our self-organizing world economy behaves strangely.
After c9/11 long distance travel spiked.
Would be interesting to see if we are in the old normal with actual data on all high energy input products…
Covid is an energy issue — you know – like when they take what is basically the flu — scare everyone into shooting up with a death shot – and exterminate everyone before collapse due to a tipping point on energy.
Strange!
Got to admire those who think they are in control spin the message..
ENVIRONMENT BILL GATES
Bill Gates-led $50 million grant will help make sustainable jet fuel as cheap as fossil fuel for the first time
LanzaJet, the startup backed by Breakthrough, is building its first commercial plant in the US state of Georgia and expects to begin production next year.
BY AKSHAT RATHI AND BLOOMBERG
October 19, 2022 7:48 AM EDT
The burgeoning market for sustainable jet fuel will soon reach a milestone, with a plant capable of turning out for the first time a lower-emission fuel at the same price as fossil fuel-based options. But this price parity will only come as result of a $50 million grant from Bill Gates-led Breakthrough Energy, alongside support from discounted loans and other financial subsidies.
LanzaJet, the startup backed by Breakthrough, is building its first commercial plant in the US state of Georgia and expects to begin production next year. The facility will double the current US capacity for making sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF.
While the global aviation sector is responsible for only about 3% of the gases that are warming the planet today, its emissions are rising fast. In a world that needs to reach net-zero emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change, green solutions are desperately needed to meet the increasing demand for flying.
What are they smoking?
SAF is one such solution. It is a broad label given to aviation-compliant fuel that’s made from more sustainable sources than traditional kerosene-based jet fuel, although so far SAF has been held back by limited supplies that are sold at much higher prices.
LanzaJet’s technology takes ethanol from sources such as sugarcane in Brazil, waste gas in China or corn in the US and then chemically converts it into SAF and renewable diesel. Depending on the feedstock used to make the ethanol, LanzaJet says the greenhouse-gas emissions from its SAF could be as much as 85% lower than conventional fuel.
The chemistry to convert alcohol to jet fuel was developed nearly 100 years ago, but it has since been refined to work at much higher efficiency and lower costs. LanzaJet claims it can convert almost every carbon atom coming into the process into usable fuel.
We demand solutions with happy ending outcomes..dream on
I also like how we pretend we’re going to make jet fuel from food because we’re concerned for the climate, not because we’re running out of jet fuel.
I understand that most of the releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve have been of the heavy oil used to make diesel fuel and jet fuel, particularly. What is left in the SPR is disproportionately very light oil, of the type that we get using fracking.
Of course, ethanol substitutes only for gasoline, in specially built vehicles, or as an additive in the general gasoline supply.
What the world is particularly short of is the heavy fuels: diesel and jet fuel.
Ethanol from crops is energetically +- 1:1 in:out.
Worse goes for methane but there you can also use animal waste to prop it up.
For Kerosene the process of lengthening the chains creates a lot of fats and waxes that bind energy but do not burn well.
It can never be a net energy positive.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28d984f8-fe09-4824-aaa7-05ccb17ac2d0_602x344.png
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6833fd47-de84-4561-bb35-c6b780075cfd_902x498.png
“It also seems like Europeans are listening to calls asking them to save heating and electricity. Through September and October German households have saved 20% or more on their gas consumption compared to last year. This lowering of demand is also necessary given the market’s expectation of a pick up in prices over the next months..
For now, given that 1) flows are solid, 2) temperatures are hotter than usual and 3) storages are already full, we should expect prices to continue towards zero in the coming weeks.
Through November, the net-injection into storages typically flips due to the heating season commencing, which will allow for a bigger net spot demand for natural gas, but we can call off the worst case scenarios for this winter. 2023 supply is now the issue that we need to discuss. ” ?
https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/steno-signals-20-no-soft-landing?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Sounds delusional. We’ve lost a huge chunk of Europe’s gas supply. There is no way that can go well.
they only have to make due with less till the Uke war ends…
It is not the households that have problems wearing a woolen sweater.
It is the heavy industry that has little use of wool on the ovens.
“Consumption down” could also be economy down.
You would need to correlate GDP and energy as Gail nicely puts it.
I can warm myself only as long as the supermarket shelve is full.
Gail, it would appear that you are wrong about growth. 😉
We seem to be growing new commenters at a very fast rate.
Looks like more people are starting to work out something is wrong or things are getting so wrong that long time readers are now commenting.
Welcome aboard all.
Don’t let the FE bite you on the way in.
Yes, I have noticed quite a few new commenters, too. Welcome!
Looking through my catalogue of forward-looking models I struggle to find any which do not indicate inflation coming down. Yet we see no signs of central banks slowing down as they seem to fear a ‘74 Arthur Burns-like scenario.
With the unwavering – boarderlining stubborn – objective of tightening until demand is crushed, it becomes harder and harder to opt in on the soft-landing (fairy)tale. Will the FED regain its credibility and pull off a ‘Sully’-like landing? I believe it when I see it.
Meanwhile gas- and electricity prices keep falling in Europe and we have more of the same in store for us over the coming month or so in sharp contrast to the anglo-saxon doom and gloom reporting on Europe.
Let’s start the newsletter with an overview of some of my inflation indicators across important categories
https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/steno-signals-20-no-soft-landing
“Meanwhile gas- and electricity prices keep falling in Europe and we have more of the same in store for us over the coming month or so in sharp contrast to the anglo-saxon doom and gloom reporting on Europe.”
yes he’s correct about “the coming month or so”, since after that should be the brutal cold weather, and prices may spike again.
so EU gas prices are falling because they are in a lull zone, where the filling of winter storage is mostly done but winter heating hasn’t ramped up yet.
storage provides only 20 to 25 % of total winter needs, so though Norway will continue to provide a big flow, the big Russian flow has ended.
I think the EU might just barely have adequate heating through the winter, and this will be made possible by shutting down most of their energy intensive industries.
blackouts are very possible, especially at the worst times when it’s very cold.
high unemployment, blackouts, a bit of freezing in the dark, burst water pipes… living on the edge, good luck with that.
Most of the storage will be useless without the normal flow of gas through the system.
Relating to the saker article maybe:
The law is p*V=const
If you pressurize gas to 250 bar you can put in 249 times the volume in a storage volume and they will come out by themselves until inside you have 1 bar +- for waste of 2 km depth.
Kids playing with smart phones instead of balloons are a sad thing.
Hmmmm……
Carfentanil: will write more on this shortly, but it is important as this was found on the street already; it will kill instantly & ONLY used in animals with thick hides e.g. elephants to tranquilize
Carfentanil is 10,000 times more potent than morphine & there is no condition, no situation under which it is to be ingested by a human being, in any manner, NONE! WARNING, it is already on the street
https://palexander.substack.com/p/carfentanil-will-write-more-on-this
Nice Eddy. It hadn’t really sunk-in that they might do a REALLY good job of facilitating the self-culling behavior of the down and out. Course they will. More evidence of China-US coordination. As part of the resource-based horsetrade the Chinese have to include the medicine bag in the trailer tack room. Carfentanil plus the vaxxxes sounds like a pretty gnarly combo.
Carfentanil is a fentanyl-related substance not approved for use in humans. In June, DEA released a Roll Call video to all law enforcement nationwide about the dangers of improperly handling fentanyl and its deadly consequences.
Carfentanil is a synthetic opioid that is 10,000 times more potent than morphine and 100 times more potent than fentanyl, which itself is 50 times more potent than heroin.
Acting Deputy Administrator Jack Riley and two local police detectives from New Jersey appear on the video to urge any law enforcement personnel who come in contact with fentanyl or fentanyl compounds to take the drugs directly to a lab.
“Fentanyl can kill you,” Riley said. “Fentanyl is being sold as heroin in virtually every corner of our country. It’s produced clandestinely in Mexico, (also) comes directly from China. It is 40 to 50 times stronger than street-level heroin. A very small amount ingested, or absorbed through your skin, can kill you.”
https://www.dea.gov/press-releases/2016/09/22/dea-issues-carfentanil-warning-police-and-public
Wow – this is The Solution to The Sickness and Global Holodomor. Just a little will do the trick!
Surely it cannot be a coincidence that this drug is flooding into the US…. I suspect this is a truth … cuz it make sense to flood the world with a suicide assist given The Big Picture.
This is the follow up article on gas storage in Europe. Many parts were covered in the last article but this long article probably covers it all. You can check out
https://thesaker.is/germanys-failing-stored-nat-gas-lng-experiment/
As stated, it is not covered by MSM, it did not happen (i.e. Panama and Sri Lanka).
thanks, lots to think about.
one thing Jorge misses is found in the above link posted by FE from AndreasSteno.
Norway supplies about 33% of European natural gas. Although Jorge is correct that there will no longer be a “flow” from Russia, there still remains a big flow from Norway.
so depending on where the storage caverns are located on the pipeline routes flowing south from Norway, there probably will be the usual technical adding of stored gas to the mainly Norwegian flow.
it appears that Jorge is an amateur in this technical area as much as I am. I think my insight might be the right correction to his thinking.
in any case, the Russian flow will be missing, and that will probably be a problem for some EU countries, if not most all of them, even with increased LNG.
if stored gas can’t be used as much as in previous years, along the lines of Jorge’s thinking, then that would be an added problem, but stored gas is only 20 to 25 % of EU’s winter needs, so I think the EU can squeeeeeeeze through this winter.
I’m not sure there are any storage caverns on the Norway pipeline route. The UK is connected to Norway and has none.
The UK has at least one NG storage facility. It is the Holford facility operated by Uniper, the German storage company that has now been nationalized by the German government since it was going bankrupt.
The flexible natural gas storage facility Holford is located 30 km southwest of Manchester and has eight caverns.
Type of facility: Cavern
Working gas volume (WGV) in TWh: 2.567
With the energy crisis, the Brits are working on extending a pipeline and opening a new facility called the Rough field which is offshore.
The storage facilities are no longer in use i understand and the UK’s purchased LNG is sent to continental Europe for storage.
How does this work – no injection no school?
https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/just-in-cdc-panel-unanimously-votes/
hahahahaha brilliant!
Fast did you just do a Harry?
Nice insights from JMG today.
Explains the lack of imagination (they just can’t imagine the Govt lying to them, or that the experts could be wrong!) among the smart ones.
‘Bernays believed that most human beings are incapable of independent thought and will inevitably believe whatever they’re told, provided that the tellers use Freudian lures to sink hooks into the psyches of their audience. That became a popular view among the educated classes, and found its way into plenty of books—Vance Packard’s The Hidden Persuaders, published in 1957, was one that hit the bestseller lists.’
https://www.ecosophia.net/waiting-for-the-fall/
JMG is the only mainstream commenter that I read and enjoy.
I know he consider himself fringe but he is right in the middle of the Overton window outside of the realm of the truly insane (like the woke nazis).
He denies any and all conspiracies (while he accepts they could exist in theory). He could not give an example of a conspiracy that he thinks it’s true when questioned.
He shuts down any conversation that can “trigger” snowflakes – so don’t mention that mother’s milk is better than bottle, the rich have different interests than us or the fact that humans are omnivores.
He repeatedly said that our leaders are rational so they would not do “crazy” things (like blowing up a pipeline that would condemn Europe to economic death).
It is sobering to realize that I was a “standard” liberal 15 years ago. Now, without changing any of my thinking, logic or principles I am a dangerous right wing “extremist” way more fringe than JMG. I still read his posts (he is a great writer) but I have not seen any new ideas from him in a while.
I like quite a few of John Michael Greer’s posts.
I have discovered that a lot of different writers have ideas that I can learn from, even if quite a few of their views differ from mine.
I like his wizard suit! I bet he’s a lot of fun at coke-fuelled parties… you dude – great outfit!
Thank you, interesting !
Apologies – had to run some errands…
Am I going to see an answer to the question about CNN at the 911 Pentagon thing as I open comments?
That’s what I call being productive!
Hi Gail, You make an excellent case for the current depopulation drive being undertaken by the elites via the mass vaccination programs. No judgement. They probably worked all this a long time ago, and in the way all elites have always acted, are taking care of themselves – in the form of a concerted culling program. I mean let’s face it we are a species in overshoot. Speeding up the die-off may actually be the only way to save the planet, the natural world, and our species. All we can do is Love and Nurture those around us as best we can. Best Regards.
“The planet” is just fine. The elites are as idiotic as the downtrodden poor.
We have been down this road 5-6 times before.
Did you know that the ancient pyramids of Coracal are several hundred thousand years old?
The Mayan long calendar is structured around cycles of 24,000 years?
Ever wonder why?
They knew,….2040……2046
Astronomers are detecting increased levels of cosmic dust in the upper levels of the suns corona?
There is a concerted search now of the southern heavens for “ planet 9”,…. because they dare not call it by its real name Lololololol
Welcome to the simacrulum……. time is fairly short now.
The elites know, the cowards,…… the Phoenix is coming for them
Then Nemesis comes for everyone.
Planet Nine is called “Lololololol”…!?
Nibiru will be detected by the James Webb infrared spectrum telescope… or so the story goes.
Detecting “life forms” on such a rock would really thicken the plot.
I mean people believe everything they’re told ( as long as “scientists” and experts and politicians deliver the message with a straight face) so why not. Lets ramp up to full crazy. Let the people worship fake aliens if that’s what it takes. Anything to deflect attention away from the real issues. Make the lie big and bold. Works every time. And when the effect wears off… hit them with the next lie. Never let their minds mend. Never let them relax. Always keep them on the edge of insanity.
I see plenty of evidence for this every time I step out into the “real world.” People are still masking, following the protocols that were embedded in their feeble minds three years ago.
There is no hope.
Intense meteor showers will provide plenty of material for biblical prophecy types – Orionids.
2029 – aprox arrival and near miss of Apophis asteroid.
It would be hard to get many people to agree to a plan of speeded up die off.
Not really. Not if they believe they are ultimately saving humanity. The end justifies the means.
The die-off will happen, regardless. If left up to nature it will be chaotic. If it could be directed or controlled then…?
More indicators , things moving faster…
– Germany:
80 years after foundation: German furniture manufacturer Hülsta insolvent.
85 years after foundation: Large bakery chain Thilmann insolvent.
125 years after foundation: German construction company Wolff Hoch- und Ingenieurbau insolvent.
130 years after foundation: German confectionery manufacturer Bodeta insolvent.
156 years after foundation: German automotive supplier Borgers insolvent.
170 years after foundation: German soap maker Kappus insolvent.
All of the above insolvencies were reported in the last 24 hours.
Survived WW2 but not SEAL team 1 and SBS Alpha
No business lasts forever, as a dissipative structure. Sometimes they get bought out by another company. But insolvency is a favorite way of failing.
Is kaput a German word?
Ich Nach Kaput all zeez companies
Kaputt!
Is’s kaputt man: kaputt, kaputter, am kaputtesten.
Notice the spin here:
Bread prices skyrocket as inflation grips Europe
Russia’s war in Ukraine has been a major factor behind the increase, Eurostat said, by roiling energy markets and driving up prices for grains, oilseeds and fertilizers
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of the wheat that Julien Bourgeois grinds for boulangeries at his family’s flour mill in central France has increased more than 30%. The bill for the electricity needed to run the mill has tripled. Even the price of paper used for flour sacks has hit the stratosphere.
All of which are driving up the price of a loaf of bread.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/bread-prices-skyrocket-as-inflation-grips-europe-9358671.html
The Uke War is an excuse for everything bad that is happening… great PR!
I agree that the Ukraine is a convenient excuse for everything. Now Europe needs to get back at Russia by cutting off (unaffordable) purchases of fossil fuels.
Europe wants many and has little resources.
That can be handled more effective where both are positive.
Re the One World Government headed by the Elders…
Remember when Don Draper makes partner… and the old guy who founded the firm says to him ‘now you get to see how the world is run … and be part of it’
That was Don being offered membership in the Club. Because the honchos in advertising and PR are invited in … they need to work closely with the Ministry of Truth …
Notice how happy Don was… Don was gonna make lots and lots of $$$$!!! Don would have prestige… and respect… he was in the best Club on the planet…
I wonder how many people are tasked with administering this Club — I wonder what the budget is… $$$ is not an issue of course… keep in mind hundreds of billions are spent on the ‘renewable energy’ delusion … one might say that’s wasted… but isn’t most $$$ (energy) ‘wasted’?
So what does it matter if a few hundred billions are budgeted to administer the Club… we have thousands of ski hills that serve no real purpose and burn billions of dollars worth of energy – yet they exist.
I wonder if they call the Club… the Farm… it’s a nice metaphor… they are the farmers.. everyone else is a barnyard animal…
hahahahahaha What a brilliant concept — bravo Elders… bravo .. do I get a last minute membership for figuring out your game? pretty please…
No… you get kicked off the Farm.
Re The One-World Government that likely already exists…
As discussed… it’s a Club … that was started by the Elders… it’s the best club ever… nobody in the Club opposes it – why would they — the perks are awesome …
But one other thing … the Club makes major wars obsolete… why do you need to fight when the members have whatever they want… but more importantly – they know that fighting would inevitably lead to a trigger fingered member launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike….
And there go all the perks…
Major wars have been unthinkable for many decades… it is in the interests of the elites to join the Club and not fight … enjoy the perks … and if anyone who is not in the Club rocks the boat… they get the shit kicked out of them.
Hi Gail, another wonderfully insightful essay.
Believe it or not I just listened to a video today after reading your article where the speaker alluded to the fact that precious metals, gold in particular, are a store of energy as it takes a good deal of energy input to mine and refine. But he also delved into correlations, and when the price of oil bottoms it also coincides with Gold bottoming. And then he goes on to assert that higher prices of energy increases a miner’s OpEx, which boosts the price they must charge which results in higher gold prices. But I also am stuck with this idea that miners (some more easily than others) can and will go bankrupt or be taken over if expenses become too extreme and the price of gold doesn’t adjust enough for them to service their debt.
Anyway, his spiel in a roundabout way echoes what you’re saying here and made me want to ask you about Gold and Silver in the context of energy; you must have a much more applicable understanding, certainly more than I.
I’m on a grand mission to understand this side of things more and find myself in the midst of a veritable maelstrom of different opinions on the matter. But I’m erring towards the idea that while energy is destined (rather soon) to go higher, Gold may not share that same destiny for a while. Do you see a scenario where that may be wrong?
The one thing we can be sure of is the math, and, checking my correlation chart I can see a significant positive correlation for Gold to Brent Crude from 2002 to 2017, then a negative correlation from 2019 until about March of 2021. And now its ticking back up although its barely positive, not significant (yet).
Link to video if you’re interested: youtube watch?v=eNLD1idXayw
Thanks!
I am not sure what the right link to the video is. The one you did will not work. Try playing the video and copying the URL.
The big problem after collapse is that very few goods and services can be produced. In any reasonable allocation scheme, the vast majority of the output of this much reduced economy would go to the workers, producing these relatively few goods.
All of the talk about silver or gold or something else being a good store of value is basically putting forth the idea that those of us who are not really producing the essential goods for the economy (food, water, fuels for heat, perhaps some electricity) will be able to share in the available goods and services as well. Maybe this is possible, but I wouldn’t count on it.
My view has always been:
1. If there are things that you want to buy now, now is the time to buy them. They likely won’t be available later. In fact, giving money to someone or some group who would put the money to good use is an option, too.
2. If you are going to try to save for the future, diversify your savings. Perhaps some bank account money and some government debt. Perhaps a life insurance annuity. Perhaps some silver coins and some gold coins. Silver coins would seem to be more practical for everyday transactions. It would seem to be difficult to spend gold coins for food or fresh water.
It will take quite a while until labor equals “payment” in whatever currency. It will take a while until the people walk away from “work done” without “payment received” but with some sort of “debt” as in “barter later”…
Until then silver might work.
Gold is needed for assets but no one will sell any assets again quite soon because a modern word for that is capital as in means of production where you can apply your labor for surplus.
Precious metals are not a store of energy. They are just metals.
Agreed! Just like bitcoins are not stores of energy.
Personally I appreciate FE s updates on the effects of the injections very much. Really the time where we monitor their damage is now and the next couple years not immediately after rollout. Right now participation in the newest “booster” ala ongoing experimentation is well under 10% in the USA. Even the most hardcore injection fans appear to be having doubts. The incredible authoritarian foundation of mandates and vaccine passports that we observed was planned for many years. Corona viruses variants were gestated for many years prior to 2019. Here is a clip of Peter Daszak extolling the virtues of coronavirus development with through “working with” Ralph Baric UNC well prior to 2019. Yet this we are assured “this isnt gain of function” . We may want this episode in Orwellian control and experimentation on humanity to be over very much and not think about it or discuss it but what happened did occur and IMO the agenda is still very much alive. IMO the Ukraine conflict has put the agenda on hold. IMO once Ukraine is resolved one way or another the agenda will return.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/bge5kuEX8aIX/
In my personal opinion the idea that the Ukraine conflict is staged is total hogwash. The history both recent and old of this conflict is known. I think the Ritter video below is good at recent history around this conflict. The other guests detract from Ritters fascinating discourse. Ukraine, Poland , and Russia have been warring for at least 1500 years. Frankly I dont see how this is not WW3. Russia says the Donbass will be defended with all means necessary. The evacuation of civillians from kherson is portayed as Russia losing ground “losing” but Russia has clearly expressed they are not willing to lose. I find the idea that Russia will be Balkanized to be fantasy but who knows. The fight has not even really started yet. We have a new mobilization in Russia. New Russian Belarus Cooperation. The Ritter video does a good job of describing the situation. He describes how the provided western weapons are continuing to be used to good effect via western “executive protection” operatives. The West is running their game plan and its not unsubstantial. If Russia doesnt do somthing they will lose the Donbass. Someone is bluffing or its WW3. I dont think anyone is bluffing or rather I dont think either side has the ability to back down. Its just like they always gamed. A slow motion of escalation events leading to a strategic nuclear exchange.
What I dont think anyone is discussing is non nuclear and non conventional weapons based on new technologies being part of the escalation. Everyone is focusing on the nuclear red line and neither military have intention of crossing it immediately. They have a bunch of other stuff that is game changers they will use first. We saw rapid evolution of tactics and technologies in WW1 and WW2. To think that the tactics and technologies stood still with a bit of improvement is what WW3 will constitute is extremely unlikely IMO. So far we only have that sole comment about “Weapons based on new technologies” from Medevev. I guess you cant say new technological weapons are a red line if no one knows what the other has. The trouble is that I think the new technology weapons might be as or more effective as nuclear weapons. Neither side is going to take lightly large losses from new technology weapons. What does it really matter if your troops are wiped out from a tactical nuke or somthing else. Its a devastating blow that threatens the existence of the state and they will respond with every tool at their disposal supported by doctrine. This process of radical escalation into strategic nuclear exchange by new technologies is not being discussed. Of course if one of the new technologies is good enough it will be over one of the combatants destroyed beyond the capacity to respond. This war is in shadow. The supply mechanisms the way the weapons deployed in shadow. Our path of escalation in shadow. We have no idea what is in that darkness. All players have played the game of the nuclear treaties, disclosing this or that. There have been no treaties requiring WMD from technologies other than nuclear be disclosed. To think that environment did not create new WMD is flawed. Look at the efforts in bio weapons. There has been active interest in non nuclear WMD. We have no idea what the results of 70 years of weapons development trillions upon trillions of dollars have yielded. Multiple laws and executive order make black projects budgets invisible. We are blind to that just as we were blind to atomic weapons before they were used. Since then that has been the focus because we assume thats was the most powerful tool ever. I suspect the civilians are being moved out of the Donbass because new tools of destruction will be used there and all parties know it. They only know what they have not the other party but they know we are on the eve of revealing new tools that have effectiveness equaling or exceeding nuclear weapons. If true once the power of the new technology is revealed moderation in actions becomes very unlikely IMO.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/rAK7nXC9f5IL/
What is happening is the end game for ALL the marbles.
On one hand you have the West, the Globalist, the Elites, whatever you want to call them struggling to maintain their hold on hegemony over the world and implement their newest push for absolute control over everyone all the time, “Ve vill own effery ting and you VILL be happy”.
Then there is what is what is rapidly becoming the vast majority of the world saying ” we no longer want anything to do with you. We are going to organise amongst ourselves, help each other out, grow our economies massively to bring 6 billion people up out of poverty and create a huge global middle class of consumers where everyone is equal.
Neither of them have a nats chance in hades of succeeding.
The third option … WWIIIIII
This will truly be the first global WW.
I do wonder about Neutron bombs, or other physics…and then massive secret laser advances.
You will get the “Everything App if you want to have something you might call a life” from Elon or Xi anyways.
Thanks for your views. We certainly live in a strange world now. I am afraid we are perhaps already in an undeclared World War III, with everyone fighting everyone else. All sides have been working on new weapons. At the same time, most groups are very short of energy. Maintaining the current level of energy supplies has become impossible.
I am afraid the next crisis will be financial.
The energy for weapons manufacturing is the last thing before the food for soldier manufacturing runs out.
There is no need to worry.
The link you add about the interview to Ralph Baric is part of a long interview to him that I was lucky to watch at the beginning of the pandemic.
I don’t remember where I found it, but it helped me to understand that ‘gain of function’ was something pretty normal inside high level international labs.
That interview appeared during the period in which media and politicians were strongly pushing fake stories about Bats, Pangolins and virus found inside food markets…
Thanks for reminding me that.
If we will find the time to list all the fake stories that media and politicians tried to sell us, we will deeply realize what a mountain of bulls#it they threw on us
It is my understanding that “gain of function” is yet more bulls#it being thrown around.
Most of what has been talked about in the last three years can be summed up by the phrase… in silico.
Banned… go up one level…. what you know is what you read from the internet. Whatever videos or articles that you read are made by someone which you don’t even know which sides they are on. Take everything with a large grain of salt.
Excellent advice!
Too much false info swilling around on the Net and all the litte piggies lapping it up then regurtitating for other little piggies.
CTG. A large amount of people including myself have gone through the higher education process with a clear goal- to create the skill set neccesary to make one desirable for employment with a corporation. This leads to a clear understanding of how compensation and ego can create cultures that have a understanding and ability to create sophisticated technologies. My perceptions of the world are certainly shaped by the information coming from the internet but much of it comes from direct life experiences of decades. Over and over again I see this argument that things such as nuclear war are just fear created as a illusion. I myself have worked with technicians and engineers who worked in the weapons industry. It was pretty rare because I worked in a technology that was not solely military and compensation for weapon technology- if you have the clearance- is two to three times the amount of non military technologies. Those individuals of course would rather cut off their hand than discuss specifics but I can assure you they were very competent and quite proud of whatever they did in weapons technology. Whether the cultures of technology and power are controlled or simply autonomous organisms I dont know.
Having a specific understanding of how human talent is created identified and used to create cultures that understand , manipulate, and proliferate technologies and physics I dont believe my understanding is just fear created as a illusion from the internet. I see that belief as being very convenient to people who want things- things that are perfectly understandable. The inherent problems with war technologies is they are damn good and will probably kill all of us. Its not a very happy situation and people want happiness. Happiness is actually a great goal but by simply placing any barrier to it the “thats not nice” box we deny our ability to change our path. Granted we may never have had or have that ability regardless. None the less if we value things such as happiness, family compassion beauty we have a duty to try to steer away from the destruction of those things. How we do that is part of how we use our creativity of our life essence no matter how limited our personal power is. We have our actions and they are important.
I certainly have no direct knowledge of impending ww3. I have a mind that trys to figure things out and I am not always correct. This is how my logic is flowing in this matter. The wests insertion of weapon technology has thwarted the goals of the SMO in the short term. Russias mobilization will put a end to that. The west has not the energy for a equivalent mobilization. The west does not have enough of the conventional high technology weapons to counter the Russian mobilization either even if they wished to give their entire stocks of such away. Yet the west appears completely confident. I do not think that confidence is a bluff. I think the decades of applying technology to create weapons has yielded results and the west plans to deploy these new technologies to counter the Russian mobilization hence the confidence. I think the west has multiple weapon systems of types we have never seen. This of course is a guess. I have outlined my reasons for the guess. Based on this logic in the intermediate term say six months I believe WW3 is highly probable.
The short term is at least as problematic. The wests deployment of conventional high technology weapons has been effective. Ukraine may retake Kharkov before the mobilization can stop it. The new Russian general has said that will lead to “difficult decisions” and what might those decisions be considering Russia has asserted that the Kharkov region is part of Russia defensible by all means at their disposal under Russian weapons use doctrine?
It seems to me we are rapidly approaching the place where the USA and Russia use whatever technologies they have created to destroy each other. Destroy infrastructure, destroy human asssets, to destroy well everything.
IMO we find out very soon what the trillions upon trillions of dollars of research $ yielded. Isnt it exciting! Russia understands that this investment into war technology has probably yielded results also. Their efforts have been to use physical principles to ensure some delivery capacity of weapons that are not easily thwarted. I thinks thats apparent if you evaluate the design approaches that they have taken. Apparently they thought that the near assured delivery of some measure of nuclear and new technology weapons would be a deterrent.
It seems crystal clear to me that mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent and I am not surprised. You become what you practice. If mutually assured destruction was a deterrent actions would have reflected that decades ago , Actions that have created this “conflict”. It may be that the destruction is worse for one party than the other while both parties are more or less destroyed. From a certain perspective this can be considered “winning”.
Thats how I see the situation CTG. Whether the cultures of technology and power are controlled or simply swirls in water I dont know. Could I be incorrect- deceived? Of course. I have many flaws faults and emotional biases. I am human.
The german physicist Hans-Peter Dürr worked with E. Teller on the nuclear bomb.
He asked Teller: “But is the nuclear bomb not a bad thing?”
Teller: ” Yes, but it will be better if we have it first”.
I understand the pride of weapons engineers but they do not understand what Dürr found out later in quantum physics:
“Everything is based on relations”
The question is, if you can eliminate “information” like in “kill and destroy” on a quantum level.
Afaik this is finally unknown, yet more on the side of “no”, so your enemy will always show up again somewhere sometime.
As in Yin Yang.
You might want to transform “information”, it’s your fucking job, man 😉
Most of the internet has essentially morphed into “capture your focus of attention”.
Extremely bad news is coming from Germany. Arne Burkhard, retired professor of pathology and medical expert in court, together with friends, has set himself the goal of scientifically exploring the medical implications of vaccinations and announced new research results. These are court-approvable.
There are a number of new findings, including that amyloids are formed in the environment of vaccine-induced spike proteins – with whatever result. Amyloids are usually observed in connection with degenerative diseases.
The worst finding from my point of view, however, is the discovery of aneurysms in the immediate vicinity of the spike proteins. The tissue sections shown by Burkhard show the typical destroyed vessels in the vicinity of the spike proteins, which expand into aneurysms.
Some time ago, Professor of Immunology Suharit Bhakdi had already outlined that at points of reduced flow velocity, the mRNA penetrates into epithelial cells lining the vessels and causes them to form the spike protein, which leads to the immune system tearing them out. This happens in clusters of several hundred cells. Due to the lack of sealing, mRNA information can apparently also penetrate into deeper layers and destroy those layers that hold the vessel together. There is a protrusion and an aneurysm, which is at risk of thrombosis and can rupture at any time with increased blood pressure.
Burkhard only talks about the tissue samples available to him. But you can think further yourself. We should assume that the ability to produce spike proteins was present in each batch – regardless of other substances with potential side effects. If aneurysms can be detected in individual cases as being produced by the spike protein, it is not reasonable to assume that the spike protein in other cases does not happen with the same. It also does not seem dose-dependent.
Aneurysms can be detected only by very complex methods. It will hardly be possible to screen and operate on all vaccinated. It would also not necessarily after death in most cases.
Aneurysms can rupture even after many years.
I’m sorry for the bad news. Unfortunately in German only:
https://youtu.be/jLJXL3YlHKE
Interesting! Thanks.
(Byoblu)
COVID: 392 PATIENTS, ONE DEATH. JOURNAL OF CLINICAL MEDICINE CONFIRMS SUCCESSES OF HIPPOCRATE.ORG
One of two Italian medical associations which proposed pharmaceutical treatments during Covid-19 pandemic, receives official acknowledgment by ‘Journal of Clinical Medicine’
The medical association was persecuted during Pandemic by politicians and media.
The treated group includes individuals who are overweight (26%), obese (11.5%), or people with chronic diseases (35%), including cardiovascular (23%) and metabolic diseases (13.3%).
https://www.byoblu.com/2022/10/19/covid-392-malati-un-decesso-il-journal-of-clinical-medicine-conferma-i-successi-di-ippocrateorg/
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/20/6138/htm
This is a direct link to the study, which was published in English.
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/20/6138/htm
This is the abstract:
Abstract
COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020. The knowledge of COVID-19 pathophysiology soon provided a strong rationale for the early use of both anti-inflammatory and antithrombotic drugs; however, its evidence was slowly and partially incorporated into institutional guidelines. The unmet needs of COVID-19 outpatients were taken care of by networks of physicians and researchers. We analyse the characteristics, management and outcomes in COVID-19 outpatients who were taken care of by physicians within the IppocrateOrg Association. In this observational retrospective study, volunteering doctors provided data on 392 COVID-19 patients. The mean age of patients was 48.5 years (range: 0.5–97), and patients were taken care of in COVID-19 stage 0 (15.6%), stage 1 (50.0%), stage 2a (28.8%) and stage 2b (5.6%). Many patients were overweight (26%) or obese (11.5%), with chronic comorbidities (34.9%), mainly cardiovascular (23%) and metabolic (13.3%). The most frequently prescribed drugs included: vitamins and supplements (98.7%), aspirin (66.1%), antibiotics (62%), glucocorticoids (41.8%), hydroxychloroquine (29.6%), enoxaparin (28.6%), colchicine (8.9%), oxygen therapy (6.9%), and ivermectin (2.8%). [Emphasis added]
Hospitalization occurred in 5.8% of cases, mainly in stage 2b (27.3%). A total of 390 patients (99.6%) recovered; one patient was lost at follow up, and one patient died after hospitalization. This is the first real-world study describing the behaviours of physicians caring for COVID-19 outpatients, and the outcomes of COVID-19 early treatment. The lethality in this cohort was 0.2%, while overall, and over the same period, the COVID-19 lethality in Italy was over 3%. The drug use described in this study appears effective and safe. The present evidence should be carefully considered by physicians and political decision makers.
This article reveals why all other treatments were denied/denigrated/delisted.
Not because they were effective, but because they reveal the fraud which was ‘Operation get Injected’.
And still the bimbo’s can’t see it!
I retail sell rocket cook-stoves here in the U.K. in what started as a side hustle about a decade ago, now I import a container or so at a time. Little on the floor wood and charcoal burny thingies, bit of a replacement for a camping gaz stove or a fire and with a bit of a third world development/ eco / anti-deforestation angle, which was my initial interest. As well as burning stuff, who doesn’t like burning stuff. ( I haven’t give up the day job yet 🙂 )
Coming up to Xmas and school hols I’d knock out about 10 a week, but mostly less, for years. Same seasonal patterns… then in the mid Feb approaching lockdowns (usually proper quiet) it became about 10 a day. Things calmed down after a few months but not by much, kept cleaning me out. Same thing keeps happening prior to or on chaos news…like power and gas blackouts now. I could almost set up an index, kind of like the hog cycle, but I think based on people’s perception of corporate news editors framing narratives….. an advance warning of when they want you to be scared of something or other.
Apart from bogroll sales (likely too late an indicator) Are there any other items that might be similar?
I got a couple portable rocket stoves, one with the coal burner below one without. Not really into brainstorming your global mercantilism for you if that’s what you’re asking.
1 gallon stills? Compatible cooking sets? Marine battery UPS combos to keep wifi, cell phones, and lap tops running during rolling black outs?
50 cal machine guns with motion sensors?
F789 ya!
Is it possible to own such things in America?
Are you looking for more indicators or business ideas?
Why would anyone be looking for business ideas at this stage of the game?
I bought two StoveTec Deluxe 2 door rocket stoves 10 years ago. The ceramic liner crumbled after just a few uses, and the dust started leaking all over the place. Pitched them. They have been discontinued by the manufacturer based in Oregon, USA. They are heavy, bulky, dirty and definitely not portable nor suited for back packing. OK for car camping (glamping) where no hiking required.
For my money, I prefer the Kelley Kettles. More versatile, lighter, and the pans, utensils, fire starter, lighter bricks, or cotton and Vaseline and bowl can all be carried in the green bag.
https://www.cabelas.com/shop/en/kelly-kettle-ultimate-stainless-steel-base-camp-cook-kit?ds_e=GOOGLE&ds_c=Cabelas%7CShopping%7CSmart%7CCamping%7CGeneral%7CNAud%7CTopPerf%7CNMT&gclsrc=ds
No, they are not as efficient because they don’t have any insulation, but the big plus is that they have the chamber where you can boil water without having to use a pot on the top. You can boil water and cook at the same time.
Any time I am making a fire, I am automatically boiling water.
How about water filter sales, or bulk dog food sales (people love their dogs)? cat food sales too (hear they are good dressed like rabbit….but think about the vermin!)…just adding my tuppence, I’m thinking about early warning indicators on the road to the gorgeous Olduvai. Maybe even hits on energy realist sites like this one?
Hubs
Mine are the stovetecs too. Haven’t used them a lot but fine so far. I bought them at the factory an hour away. Maybe I should call them and ask them what the deal is and get the situation rectified. Thanks for the heads up. Got a Kelly kettle too, great.
Dead give away of desperation is when you see pets…mostly dogs being set loose…usually the fools drive them out to the country cause they think the country people will take care of them….silly them…the dogs will be shot when they try to kill peoples chickens.
Funny you should say that. Not three days ago two unknown dogs did exactly that to my next door neighbors chickens. Wish I’d gotten the biggest Kelly kettle.
Hubbs, the Kelly Kettle is great. I have a StoveTec in my attic. I have actually been looking for a better alternative. Just bought the Kelly Kettle. Thanks for the great tip. Will use it on my next river trip.
I bought the largest base camp version for use here at home in the event of no more energy.
This will be a rather short term venture! But why not.
But the problem is not going to be that stoves arent available, its that fuel won’t be available.
I am not particularly handy but I’m sure I could make one of these things from scrap if i wanted to. I wouldn’t bother though because chances are there will be no coal or wood to put in it.
The big issue is lack of fuel to put in the stoves, of course. Difficult to cook food and well as difficult to heat homes. Not very many people can live very long on only uncooked food. Raw fish and a little vegetables, with enough oil seems to work for a few people, as a way of getting along without cooking. Also, a few people will a blender or food processor can simulate cooking by breaking down food fibers with these devices. But without electricity, inability to cook food will be a huge problem.
This is only a problem of population density and a self organizing system behaves in a strange way, you know?
Friends of mine just bought a solar oven.
We grow a lot of kale during the winter months — looking for ways to use it we would chuck it into the blender with some coconut water and other stuff and grind it in raw form…
We were getting stomach aches from consuming that .. and stopped.
I wonder if the same would happen if we tried grinding up lawn grass.
Feed the kale to rabbits that you can eat yourselves or feed to Hoolio.
Adaptations can be ‘pros and cons’ because conditions change? Chaos in action?
“Autoimmune disease happens when the body’s natural defense system can’t tell the difference between your own cells and foreign cells, causing the body to mistakenly attack normal cells. There are more than 80 types of autoimmune diseases that affect a wide range of body parts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/19/gene-black-death-survivors-linked-autoimmune-diseases
> Genetic traits of Black Death survivors linked to autoimmune diseases today
Scientists find people with ERAP2 variant survived 14th-century plague at much higher rates
Scientists have identified genetic traits that determined who survived the Black Death more than 700 years ago, but which are today associated with an increased susceptibility to some autoimmune diseases.
The study of centuries-old DNA from victims and survivors of the bubonic plague that occurred in the 14th century found that people with what the scientists describe as a “good” variant of a particular gene, known as ERAP2, survived at much higher rates.
The findings, which are published in the journal Nature, shed light on how the Black Death – which wiped out about 50% of the European population – shaped the evolution of immunity genes such as ERAP2, setting the course for how humans respond to disease today.
The “selectively advantageous” ERAP2 variant is also a known risk factor for Crohn’s disease and has been associated with other autoimmune diseases, the researchers noted.
Luis Barreiro, professor of genetic medicine at the University of Chicago Medical Center in the US and co-senior author of the study, said: “This is, to my knowledge, the first demonstration that indeed, the Black Death was an important selective pressure to the evolution of the human immune system.”
For the study, more than 500 ancient DNA samples were extracted from the remains of individuals, including those buried in London’s East Smithfield plague pits, which were used for mass burials in 1348 and 1349. The samples came from people who had either died before the plague, died from it or survived the Black Death.
Signs of any genetic adaptation related to the plague, which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, were then looked for. Having two copies of the “good” ERAP2 gene was found to have allowed individuals to produce functional proteins – molecules which help the immune system recognise an infection.
These ERAP2 copies allowed for “more efficient neutralisation of Y pestis by immune cells”, according to the scientists from McMaster University, the University of Chicago, the Pasteur Institute and other organisations.
The presence of the variant would have made a person about 40% more likely to survive the Black Death, compared with those who did not have it.
Hendrik Poinar, professor of anthropology at McMaster University in Canada and co-senior author on the study, said the research was the first study of how pandemics could modify genomes but go undetected in modern populations.
“These genes are underbalancing selection – what provided tremendous protection during hundreds of years of plague epidemics has turned out to be autoimmune-related now,” he added.
“A hyperactive immune system may have been great in the past but in the environment today it might not be as helpful.”
Very interesting! This answers a question for long years, what could be the selective advantage for chronical diseases. Usually my mentors said, there is none, the error is passed on. I knew there is a point! Thanks.
Interesting! I know that my close relatives seem to have problems with auto-immune illnesses. I probably have some tendency that way as well. But we seem to do well in fighting off communicable illnesses.
I’m willing to conditionally accept the conclusion at face value, that the more fit bloodlines who on average survived the medieval European dieoff are in some ways struggling more with late-industrial chemical pollution, in the same way that a high performance automobile will struggle more with adverse internal circumstances than a work truck. They’re built with different tolerances for different applications. People evolved with different tolerances for different adaptations.
That said, gene expression gets switched on and off depending on the circumstances, and always for a good reason, because the body is a 4B year old intelligent survivalist. Sometimes we switch off genes because we are in triage mode and dealing with a higher priority. Like acute malnutrition.
These ‘scientists’ have no idea what genes were switched on and off at the time, and how that intelligent gene expression played into the outcomes either way. They’re just looking at photographs. As the Red Man said, photographs steal your soul.
Interesting ! Thank you
Regarding Derek Abbott’s article:
https://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
I would take this article with a rather big grain of salt. The link below details the wetted volume of a 3000MWth nuclear power reactor.
https://www.nuclear-power.com/nuclear-power-plant/nuclear-reactor/volume-reactor-coolant-system/
It comes to 285m3. That is about the same volume as a decent sized town house. For a unit that could power a city of 1-2 million people for 60 years. And there aren’t many rare elements in use here. Sure, the average fuel load contains a few tonnes of zirconium alloy and control rods are made from boron steel. But these aren’t really rare elements. And a nuclear reactor of this size, will go through maybe 100 tonnes of zircalloy in its 60 year lifetime. Most of the material is stainless steel. The total materials use is tiny given the amount of energy it provides.
Derek Abbot is an electronics expert. Not an engineer.
He either doesn’t know what he is talking about, or he is being deliberately disingenuous. He suggests we would do better putting resources elsewhere. Where exactly? Renewable energy sources require orders of magnitude more materials for the same amount of energy yield. How can this man tell us with a straight face, that systems requiring 100x the embodied materials of a nuclear reactor, are better bet from a materials sustainability viewpoint?
Peter
You’re focusing too heavily on a minor part of the issue which at a glance looks like a straw Manning tactic but, like I said, just at a glance.
This is Derek’s thesis:
“As Abbott notes in his study, global power consumption today is about 15 terawatts (TW). Currently, the global nuclear power supply capacity is only 375 gigawatts (GW). In order to examine the large-scale limits of nuclear power, Abbott estimates that to supply 15 TW with nuclear only, we would need about 15,000 nuclear reactors. In his analysis, Abbott explores the consequences of building, operating, and decommissioning 15,000 reactors on the Earth, looking at factors such as the amount of land required, radioactive waste, accident rate, risk of proliferation into weapons, uranium abundance and extraction, and the exotic metals used to build the reactors themselves.”
To that thesis I would add that all of this has to be done post-peak oil.
Do you really think nuclear is a safe and realistic solution? Was it ever?
Or would they do better putting resources elsewhere?
Fair comment throughout. I think nuclear can make significant progresses if we can find (and I think there are ways) to burn unenriched or depleted uranium, and to limit disposal costs.
Might I suggest this is like shitting in a pail … and working out how to eat the shit — and process the nutrients that were not absorbed when eating the food …. without getting seriously ill or dying.
With economy decline, population decline and energy restrictions our system will inevitably be shrinking. Contracting complex systems though will crash and consolidate on a lower level of complexity.
A current example: A German manufacturer of AdBlue had to close business. AdBlue is a fuel additive for diesel, needed by lorries. The German government does not see any shortages but the logistics industry has already warned. If lorries couldn’t drive there would be no food in the supermarkets and no busses and people wouldn’t be able to go to work.
Are you sure at a level of lower complexity, we still have semiconductors for the it-installstion in a new nuclear facility, we have companies who can build and securely maintain these plants under the new conditions?
I always miss OFW during the down times. Best reading on the web☺. Thank you Gail.
Sorry I was slow in getting the post up. I wrote an initial draft, which I finished about a week ago, and gave to the lady in charge of the conference. I also wrote a draft OFW article, using the draft presentation.
The lady in charge of the conference had a number of suggestions, relative to the initial draft. Mostly, she wanted more documentation that what I was saying was valid. She also wanted an introductory slide about myself, and she pointed out some things she though needed more emphasis.
So, I went back and made a second draft of both the presentation and the post. I was traveling up to Wisconsin during this time, so things didn’t go quickly. I really had to finish the additional documentation after the conference Monday morning.
It is clear that without debt growth would be much slower but that would not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact I would say that would have put us in a much better position than we find ourselves in today. In fact it would be reasonable to believe we would have taken our time and been much smarter and realistic in our growth and development and we would be even more advanced as a species instead of the de-evolution that is happening now.
If debt has been the driver of all our woes hows about we stop doing it? Oh…they won’t let us? Whos they and why do they get to decide the fate of all humanity?
Economies without debt have never existed for a reason: they can’t.
but this years debt must be covered by next year’s energy input
if that energy input isn’t there, then the economic system will destabilise.
trouble at the mill! 🙂
If you can’t pay the debt , run to the Hills.
(I am not joking this time – the Capitoline Hill of Rome, for example, was a favorite refugee of debtors and other misfits.)
That’s mill, with an m. 🙂
If any group wants economies of scale, there is always a need for investment of some type. Even if the situation is only in shared benefits of hunting and gathering, somehow the arrangement must be “financed.”
If someone specializes in making flints to start fires, someone else specializes is hunting using some sort of tools, someone else specializes in gathering plant food, and yet someone else specializes in child care, there must be an agreement on how output will be shared. Some initial work must be done on making flint making tools and tools for hunting, and this must be paid back, even though the tool-makers may never have helped with hunting and gathering. These tool-makers, especially, get paid based on their early service to the group–a kind of debt.
There is also other sharing that is in place. They must all agree to defer the majority of their eating until the group gathers together and all can get fed appropriate amounts.
The ‘right’ type of debt?
“Importantly for our disaggregated quantity equation, credit creation can be disaggregated, as we can obtain and analyse information about who obtains loans and what use they are put to. Sectoral loan data provide us with information about the direction of purchasing power – something deposit aggregates cannot tell us. By institutional analysis and the use of such disaggregated credit data it can be determined, at least approximately, what share of purchasing power is primarily spent on ‘real’ transactions that are part of GDP and which part is primarily used for financial transactions. Further, transactions contributing to GDP can be divided into ‘productive’ ones that have a lower risk, as they generate income streams to service them (they can thus be referred to as sustainable or productive), and those that do not increase productivity or the stock of goods and services. Data availability is dependent on central bank publication of such data. The identification of transactions that are part of GDP and those that are not is more straight-forward, simply following the NIA rules.”
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/339271/1/Werner_IRFA_QTC_2012.pdf
“The source of financing most correlated with investment is long term debt. The correlation between I and dLTD is 0.79… These correlations confirm the impression … that debt plays a key role in accommodating year-by-year variation in investment.”
(Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, 1999, p. 1954)
This paper is from 2011 and 2012 (presented at two different conferences, the first was only presented in part).
At one point, you quote
“By institutional analysis and the use of such disaggregated credit data it can be determined, at least approximately, what share of purchasing power is primarily spent on ‘real’ transactions that are part of GDP and which part is primarily used for financial transactions.”
Of course, the financial transaction would primarily affect asset prices.
Now, we know that there also is debt that gets into the hands of consumers that goes to purchase goods and services that cannot be purchased in the quantity demanded. So that debt goes into what we would call inflation.
This author needs to figure out how to deal with three cases, instead of two.
“They found that the composition of credit does matter for the trade balance: lending to consumers has a negative effect on net exports, while loans to firms contribute to a rise in net exports. This is again empirical evidence in support of our disaggregated credit model: productive corporate loans should deliver noninflationary growth, and as part of that also exports. Consumer loans only result in greater domestic demand, which at any given marginal propensity to import will have a negative impact on the trade balance. ”
https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/339271/1/Werner_IRFA_QTC_2012.pdf
I am suspicious the debt was/is necessary to extract the more expensively to extract oil after 2005. Debt obviously can be replaced by higher taxes or inflation or money printing. The point is if THIS debt was isolated from the economy following the idea of Hjalmar Schachts Mefo Wechsel.
Economists usually compare price formation to the potatoe market, the less potstoes the higher the price. But now assume you go to the market to buy potatoes and they cost 20.000 EURs per kilo. You couldn’t afford that, right? You would buy cabbage or flour or rice. Think of 2018, OPEC+ tried to raise prices gently – it was not possible, people just coulnd’t pay that much.
So there is a point that our potatoe market model reaches it’s limit. The farmer will probably not sell anything and has to stop producing. This is Gails fear.
Now look to the subprime crisis, gasoline prices went up and people could not pay it, they just couldn’t. But without car they would not have been able to commute from their suburbs to their jobs. They would have been financially dead. So they decided not to pay their mortgages. The rest is legend. This is where a lot of debt comes from.
We can only distribute what we produce. So if we decide to buy vaccines we might have no school books. If we decide to give all our money to Kill Bill or the pharao it depends on what they do with the money. If we need a pyramid for proper care of the dead or if a reservoire dam is a better investment. So I understand your suspicion that we pay too much for the elite. I agree! But sooner or later the energy problem strikes again. There is no way out!
Wrong (I can’t be bothered to explain why – time is short… )
There exist a little difference if I hand you a leather bag of gold coins and get one more coin inside with the leather bag back in agreed time or if I just create a “virtual bag” out of nothing for all and ask “you sucker” to bring me back a single additional coin.
Great work! I follow you for many years and it is amazing how some of your ideas were difficult to imagine in a near future and it seems now so much real. I can’t understand how almost all of us beleive in what governments tell us. Maybe because is more easier not to think. Europe is facing a huge transformation and we don’t want to face it. We want our lives back. One thing I know is that one world government is not definitely good. Diplomacy should be used and it is frozen. We are clearly in a new era, not necessarilly good
I am glad you like my article.
I agree with you that one world government doesn’t make sense. With less energy per capita, things cannot go that way. Globalization has to start falling apart.
Most military groups understand the energy problem, even if politicians cannot even imagine telling their citizens about the problems. Military groups have been working on how to fight with others, using less energy, for a long time.
It is hard to know what will happen in the future. My impression is that financial problems will start coming to the forefront soon.
We already have one world government aka The Club… they are the ones exterminating us…
They won’t actually fight amongst themselves – there is no point in doing that in a globalized world where if you hack any key part off – the whole thing dies.
As we can see they are rationing and sharing what’s left… as they try to squeeze out a few more weeks or months of BAU…
The US has been shipping lots and lots of its gas to Europe – and that’s driving up domestic prices — they are sharing … cuz otherwise collapse now
There is a limit on how much gas can be shipped to Europe. To some extent, this is determined by LNG ships available. Some natural gas that can theoretically be shipped is supposed to be back online in November. I am wondering whether there will be ships available to ship it.
I just read today that Nigeria is having an outage in the LNG it ships.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/catastrophic-flooding-in-nigeria-uproots-millions-and-severs-gas-production-11666185353
Catastrophic Flooding in Nigeria Uproots Millions and Severs Gas Production
Ok – it does seem there are actual floods…
https://www.google.com/search?q=nigeria+floods&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ946NZ946&oq=nigeria+floods&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512j0i131i433i512j0i512l7.2593j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Difficult to confirm if they are affecting LNG shipments
It’s so easy to create a Matrix… if you own the MSM … you can basically take a truth — and use that to support a lie…
I am not suggesting the LNG impact from the floods is a lie — just that it very well could be…
I think governments masking The Issue (TM) with “growth and climate change paradox” tried their best.
That is why I can understand a lot of people that claim climate change is a hoax because in some way it is.
As I said before what I received from U. Bardi:
The limits to growth showed the path, how it could be handled was NOT in the model.
We could have decided in the last 50 years and we did not and now the chairs seem to disappear…
Well… that’s the problem with living on a finite planet… the stuff runs out … nobody likes that.
We can march around the block and demand MORE … but when the stuff has run out… we won’t get MORE
Leading to a low standard of living which in turn leads to fewer people.
Nah .. it leads to collapsed supply chains and starvation .. but there are always those who will fight to their last drop of blood to avoid that fate — they will be the ones who murder, rape, and eat the other humans…
Not to worry though – as we know – there is enough of that super strength Fentanyl in circulation to kill every person the US 10x over… it’s so strong that if you grind up a pill and rub it on your gums … you will be dead before the bad guys can bust through the locked door
I used to joke about this scenario many years before the CovCON… I betcha the PR Team who are monitoring everything borrowed this idea from me…
Glad I’ve been able to contribute to the UEP …
Beautiful summary of your ideas over the past 10 years or so. The best yet. Concise and to the point devoid of opinion. It is indeed a physics problem. Now will anyone listen? Doubt it. Long time readers of Gail already know and agree with 90+% of her work and perspectives. The rest are just lambs to the slaughter and that includes almost all economists and politicians.
Mutton supply strong too despite the last two years’ record harvests.
Thanks for the compliment.
“It is indeed a physics problem. Now will anyone listen?”
Even if they did… what then?
How does swapping the illusion that the markets, interest rates, central banks magically hold everything together for some kind of physics/engineering based solution happen when everything and everyone is already looking like clown world?
It’s not just the masses… the people who are supposedly in charge of keeping the train on the rails lost their minds a long time ago. Exibit A – renewables, batteries for everything all because CO2 is a “bad” gas!
Sheer insanity has gripped the world and twists it into the ugliest form imaginable – a suicidal death cult.
We’re in cloud cuckoo land now. And I suspect our collective condition is irreversible. It’s just going to get worse.
I look back on ancient episodes of mass insanity – ripping hearts out, cannibalism, worshipping fantasy gods – and I see the same “demons” rising up again to torment the sh*t out of this irrational, greedy, selfish, sinful species.
Maybe there are some ways to extend the game, rearrange the chairs. But for that to happen… everyone would have to be on the same page and live like saints.
And there’s nothing “natural” or physics-based about that because that world doesn’t exist.
“While there are direct ways in which CO2 is a pollutant (acidification of the ocean), its primary impact is its greenhouse warming effect. . . . too much warming has severe negative impacts on agriculture, health and environment.”
https://skepticalscience.com/co2-pollutant.htm
“Atmospheric CO2 is already at levels last seen around four million years ago, in the Pliocene epoch. It is rapidly heading towards levels last seen some 50 million years ago — in the Eocene — when temperatures were up to 14 °C higher than they were in pre-industrial times. ”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0?fbclid=IwAR0UkDVD3Nh753RXHrpd0USM3wrXsRJzX3kP3uzMqYYqzGUPo_xAosqwMVU
The race is on?
It’s not just the masses… the people who are supposedly in charge of keeping the train on the rails lost their minds a long time ago. Exibit A – renewables, batteries for everything all because CO2 is a “bad” gas!
The thing is …
They know this will not work. They are not stupid. But they do it anyway…
Why?
Because they need to be seen to walk the walk… they cannot just say – don’t worry about running out of oil … we’ll transition to renewables at some point.
The MORE-ONS are extremely stooopid but they are not completely stooopid … some concrete action needs to be taken to demonstrate they are serious…
So they toss a few hundred billion at it — the MSM tells us its well underway – along with the move to EVs — which they also know is impossible …
The $$$$ does not matter — what’s the difference between building a solar farm vs a ski lift? Basically nothing. Most energy we use is wasted one way or the other.
But this calms the MORE-ONS… they can hold hands and dance around the camp fire singing the renewable energy song… and keeps them hopeful… happy … and best of all productive! And BAU does not prematurely collapse.
https://youtu.be/CcXHgEdxfLQ
The problem is that in a self-organizing system, any theory than might work gets appropriated. Charlie Hall and others who worked with him on Energy Return on Energy Invested theories had high-minded ideas of what their theory could do, but the theory had a whole lot of flaws in it. Also, many others started working in the same direction, and exploited the flaws, to make the results look even better. They didn’t see that “all energy is equivalent” is not really true. They didn’t figure out that intermittent electricity only replaces fuel, not finished electricity. They didn’t see that their model-based calculations (for wind, solar, hydroelectric and nuclear) were not at all equivalent to the “in and out in the same calendar year” calculations. They meant well, but others exploited the deficiencies of their calculations. Everyone wanted a good result.
The same thing happened with the “levelized cost of electricity” calculations. People didn’t understand that all wind and solar did was replace fuel, not finished electricity. They also couldn’t be ramped up to replace fossil fuels. So they made “apples to oranges” comparisons.
Here is my contribution to, at least, the food problem. A playlist of videos I produced of a 20′ diversely planted and overtime harvested garden bed over this 2022 season: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDCRYtmkDsX9XHCD-higvYUoYRhc3-WhZ
Good stuff Rick! Thanks for sharing. Have you considered snaring the rabbits in your little corner there? You could make it pretty inconspicuous and just make sure you’re first to the garden in the morning. That would be pretty fun and tasty.
My big problem is animals eating whatever I plant. We have lots of deer around, as well as rabbits and other small animals. Also, fruit trees need spraying to be productive, and birds like berries.
Setting up big fences is not practical on a suburban front yard. Big metal fences use a lot of fossil fuel, too.
Because of these issues, the payback is pretty low without lots of modern fossil fuel inputs.
Ya it’s a major hassle… instead what you do when the hunger games start — is load up the SUV with guns and ammo — and head for the rural areas — those guys know how to prep!
Then you can either raid the garden at night when they are sleeping or you hide in some bushes and when they go to the garden to pull weeds — you fire a piece of metal into their heads… then you can set up a lawn chair and enjoy roast chicken and a salad— all cooked by your new slave – the dead preppers wife!
hahahahaha
Country folk target practice out to almost a mile. Until the bullets start tumbling. Country folk like to display bullets on their shelves with dents in the sides of them from where they still hit the target with a tumbling bullet. It’s not a fair fight, Eddy.
Country folk? You mean overweight hillbillies? HAHAHA
How many ex-military do you think are lurking in America… trained killers…
One day you walk into the veg patch to weed — and your brain registers the crack of a sniper rifle… just before you drop dead.
You cannot defend a farm – it is impossible
Nobody ever answers what they will do when neighbours and family – who don’t have veg patches – show up – begging for food.
You don’t think that when the supermarkets close — your neighbours… won’t come knocking (or pounding on the door with rifle butts) — what about all your extended family? They surely have seen your raised beds.
How far are you from the nearest spent fuel pond?
Funny how people just ignore all of these facts — kinda like how CovIDIOTS ignore the visuals that show deaths spikes following the latest rounds of boosters …
Really, the only way out of this situation, it to build lots of nuclear reactors that can generate a lot of surplus energy. The Chinese and South Koreans have been very succesful in keeping build times and capital costs very low. In Europe and America, a combination of regulatory ratcheting and atrophy of the industry, is pushing build times and costs through the roof. We need to reverse these problems quickly. Nuclear power is the only remaining energy source that has the potential to be cheap. But it will only be cheap if the right conditions are in place.
With lots of cheap electricity, heat pumps can provide heat. Electricity could be used to make synthetic fuels like ammonia. For this to be affordable, the input power must be cheap. Nuclear power can do this because its fuel has over a million times the energy density of the best fossil fuel. Nuclear reactors also have high power density. This allows energy return on investment to be very high.
Fusion could potentially be a low cost energy source as well. Unfortunately, current approaches to fusion are unlikely to succeed. This is because the technology is being pursued in ways that seperate it from nuclear fission. Inertial confinement fusion will only work if fission reactions are used to provide hot spot heating needed to ignite the fusion fuel pellet. Magnetic confinement fusion cannot produce sufficient surplus energy to make it profitable. But it could produce fast neutrons that drive fast fission in blankets. The key to making fusion successful is to either drive it with fission energy, or use it to drive fast fission.
I think I responded to another similar comment of yours already. I need to “let through” all comments from new commenters.
Notice how the PR Team has been leaking out stuff about mini-reactors… every neighbourhood will soon have one…
obviously that is nonsense… but the MORE-ONS lap this stuff up — most of them honestly believe there will only be EVs by 2035…
They believe … whatever the MSM tells them to believe.
maybe not…
https://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
Thanks for shattering yet another delusion that many people believe in.
The End of Cheap Uranium (Cornell University Research) https://arxiv.org/abs/1106.3617
producing energy isn’t the entire problem
finding uses for it is.
because thats how wages are produced, not from energy per se.
We will dig holes and fill them. And everyone will be happy.
Or building windmills … and solar farms
Peter – First off nuclear does not make electricity, it makes heat which is used to boil water, which makes steam, which makes a turbine spin, which makes electricity. Only a few notches better than the original steam engine. Hundreds of nuclear reactors have had to shut down over the last 5+ yers due to lack of water(drought), or water being too warm to cool reactor. Both factors are increasing.
Second off according to you we need to ramp up growth, industry, consumption, manufacturing, etc. That is the problem NOT the solution.
If we had “lots of cheap electricity” humans would destroy the planet even faster than we already are.
You really need to understand the problem before you can come up with a solution.
Really, the only way out of this situation, it to build lots of nuclear reactors that can generate a lot of surplus energy.
We can’t though. We don’t have enough surplus energy to do that.