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It has recently become clear to me that heavy oil, which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel, plays a far more significant role in the world economy than most people understand. We need heavy oil that can be extracted, processed, and transported inexpensively to be able to provide the category of fuels sometimes referred to as Middle Distillates if our modern economy is to continue. A transition to electricity doesn’t work for most heavy equipment that is powered by diesel or jet fuel.
A major concern is that the physics of our self-organizing economy plays an important role in determining what actually happens. Leaders may think that they are in charge, but their power to change the way the overall system works, in the chosen direction, is quite limited. The physics of the system tends to keep oil prices lower than heavy oil producers would prefer. It tends to cause debt bubbles to collapse. It tends to squeeze out “inefficient” uses of oil from the system in ways we wouldn’t expect. In the future, the physics of the system may keep parts of the world economy operating while other inefficient pieces get squeezed out.
In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues with oil limits as they seem to be playing out, particularly as they apply to diesel and jet fuel, the major components of Middle Distillates.
[1] The most serious issue with oil supply is that there seems to be plenty of oil in the ground, but the world economy cannot hold prices up sufficiently high, for long enough, to get this oil out.
As I frequently point out, the world economy is a physics-based system. World oil prices are set by supply and demand. Demand is quite closely tied to what people around the world can afford to pay for food and for transportation services because the use of oil is integral to today’s food production and transportation services.
Heavy oil is especially involved in this affordability issue. As oil becomes “heavier,” it becomes more viscous, and thus more difficult to ship by pipeline. If oil is very heavy, as is the oil from the Oil Sands of Canada, it needs to be mixed with an appropriate diluent to be shipped by pipeline.
Heavy oil often has sulfur and other pollutants mixed in, adding costs to the refining process. Furthermore, heavy oil, especially very heavy oil, often needs to be “cracked” in a refinery to provide a desirable mix of end products, including diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline. This, too, adds costs. Otherwise, there would be too much of the product mix that would be like asphalt. Also, as noted previously, even if the costs of production are high, the selling price of diesel cannot rise very high without raising food prices. This tends to keep the prices of heavy crude oils below those for lighter crude oils.
Many people believe that the high level of “Proved Oil Reserves” worldwide makes it certain that businesses can extract as much oil as they would like in the future. A major issue is whether these reserves mean as much as people assume they do. Oil reserves of OECD countries (an association of the US and other rich countries) are likely to be audited, but reserves of other countries may not be. Asking a relatively poor oil-exporting country the amount of its oil reserves is like asking the country how wealthy it is. We should not be surprised by fibbing on the high side. The problem is that the vast majority of reported oil reserves (85%) are held by non-OECD countries. These reserves may be significantly overstated.
Also, even if the reserves are fairly reported, will the country have the resources to extract these reserves? Venezuela reports the highest oil reserves in the world thanks to its heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt, but it extracts a relatively small amount per year. An October 2022 article says that the country is waiting for foreign investment to expand production.
Going forward, oil companies everywhere need to worry about broken supply lines for necessary items, such as steel drilling pipe. They need to worry about finding enough trained workers. They need to worry about the availability of debt and the interest rate that will be charged for this debt. If private oil companies look at the true prospects and find them too bleak, they will likely use their profits to buy back the shares of their own oil companies instead (as is happening now).
[2] While oil producers can crack heavy oil to make shorter hydrocarbons in a way that is not terribly expensive, trying to make near-gasses and light oils into diesel becomes impossibly expensive.
It is easy for people to assume that any part of the oil mix is substitutable for another part, but this is not true. Cracking long hydrocarbon chains works to make shorter chains, but the economics tend not to work in the other direction. Thus, it is not economically feasible to make gasoline into diesel (which is heavier), or natural gas liquids into diesel.
[3] If there is inadequate oil supply, the impacts on the economy are likely to include broken supply lines, empty shelves, and inflation in the price of goods that are available.
If there is not enough oil to go around, some users must be left out. The result is that some of the less profitable consumers of oil may file for bankruptcy. For example, the Wall Street Journal recently reported Trucking Giant Yellow Shuts Down Operations. This bankruptcy makes it impossible for some stores to get the merchandise that would normally be on their shelves. As a consequence, it makes it likely that some replacement parts for automobiles will not be available when needed. There is a workaround of renting another vehicle while a person’s car is waiting for repairs, but this adds to total costs.
This workaround illustrates how a lack of adequate oil can indirectly lead to higher overall costs, even if the oil itself is not higher-priced. The need to work around supply line problems tends to lead to inflation in the prices of goods that continue to be available.
[4] The fact that the quantity of oil that could be affordably extracted was likely to fall short about now has been known for a very long time, but this fact has been hidden from the public.
In 1957, Hyman Rickover of the US navy predicted that the amount of affordable fossil fuels would fall short between 2000 and 2050, with the amount of oil falling short earlier than coal and natural gas.
The book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, published in 1972, discusses the result of early modeling efforts with respect to resource limits. These resource limits were very broadly defined, including minerals such as copper and lithium in addition to fossil fuels. A range of indications were produced, but the base model (based on business as usual) seemed to show limits hitting before 2030 (Figure 1).
Since the resource limits include minerals of all types, these limits would seem to preclude a transition to clean energy and electric cars.
Educators, advertisers, and political leaders could see that discussing the oil problem would cause economic suicide. What would be the point of buying a car, if a person couldn’t use it for very long? Educators felt that students needed to be guided in the direction of hoped-for solutions, no matter how remote they might be, if university programs were to remain open.
Politicians and government officials wanted to keep voters happy, so the self-organizing economy pushed them in the direction of keeping the story from the public. They tended to focus on climate issues instead. They added biofuels to stretch the supply of gasoline, and to a lesser extent, diesel. They also increased the share of natural gas liquids. The selling price of these liquids tends to be quite low, relative to the price of crude oil.
They started providing reports showing “all liquids” rather than “crude oil,” in the hope that people wouldn’t notice the change in mix.
[5] The world’s number one problem today seems to be an inadequate supply of Middle Distillates. These provide diesel and jet fuel.
Diesel and jet fuel provide the big bursts of power that commercial equipment requires. Many types of equipment are dependent on Middle Distillates, including semi-trucks, agricultural equipment, ocean-going ships, jet planes, road-making equipment, school buses, and trains operating in areas with steep inclines.
Because of its concentrated store of energy, diesel is also used to operate backup generators and to provide electricity in remote areas of the world where it would be impractical to have year-round electricity without an easily stored fuel.
In Figure 3:
- Light Distillates are primarily gasoline (78% in 2022).
- Middle Distillates are diesel (82%) and jet fuel/kerosene (18%).
- Fuel Oil is a cheap, polluting, unrefined product. If environmental laws permit, it can be burned as bunker fuel (used in ships), as boiler fuel, or to provide electricity.
- The Other category includes near-gasses such as ethane, propane, and butane (58%). It also includes some very heavy oil used as lubricants, asphalt, or feedstocks for petrochemicals.
Until recently, it has been possible to increase diesel production by refining an added share of Fuel Oil. Fuel oil is quite heavy (barely a liquid), so it is well-suited to be refined into a mix that includes a large share of Middle Distillates.
Now we are running short of Fuel Oil to refine for the purpose of producing more Middle Distillates. The Fuel Oil that is still consumed is used in what I think of as the poorer countries of the world: the non-OECD countries (Figure 4).
Poor countries tend to value “low price” over “prevents pollution.” It is likely to be difficult to get these countries to move away from the use of Fuel Oil.
[6] Countries around the world are now competing for Middle Distillates to maintain the food production, road building, commercial transportation, and construction portions of their economies.
Figure 5 shows that since about 1983, consumption per capita for both Light Distillates and Middle Distillates has been generally slightly growing. Growth in usage tends to be higher for Middle Distillates than Light Distillates. The total quantity consumed is also higher for Middle Distillates.
The dip in consumption per capita in 2020 is much more pronounced for Middle Distillates than Light Distillates. For Middle Distillates, the change from 2018 to 2020 is -16%; the change from 2018 to 2022 is -7%. The corresponding changes for Light Distillates are -11% and -4%.
The difference in patterns in Light Distillates and Middle Distillates is not surprising: Gasoline, the main product of Light Distillates, has been the focus of efficiency changes. It is also possible to dilute gasoline with ethanol, made from corn. Voters in the US are particularly aware of gasoline availability and price, so politicians tend to focus on it.
Diesel and jet fuel, made using Middle Distillates, are less on the minds of voters, but they are probably more important to the economy because people’s jobs depend upon the economy in its current form holding together. Inadequate Middle Distillates leaves empty shelves in stores because of broken supply lines. It also leads to inflation of the type we have recently been experiencing. Indirectly, lack of Middle Distillates can lead to debt bubbles collapsing, and to problems of a different type than inflation.
Up until 2007, Middle Distillate consumption was generally increasing for both OECD countries and non-OECD countries. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 particularly affected OECD countries. European countries found their economies doing less well. For example, less diesel was used to operate tour boats carrying tourists; a larger share of available jobs were low-paid service jobs.
The year 2013 was a turning point of a different type. The consumption of non-OECD countries caught up with that of OECD countries. While non-OECD countries might like to maintain their rapid upward trajectory in the consumption of Middle Distillates, this no longer seems to be possible.
[7] Under the Maximum Power Principle, the physics of the economy pushes the economy toward optimal low-cost solutions, especially as the quantity of Middle Distillates approaches limits.
The economy, like every other ecosystem, operates under the principle of “survival of the best adapted.” In terms of the sale of goods, this means that the lowest-priced goods will tend to win out in a competitive environment, provided that they are of adequate quality and that the makers can earn an adequate profit in making them.
Furthermore, the makers of the goods must earn a high enough profit both for reinvestment and to pay adequate taxes to their governments. Payments of taxes to governments are essential; otherwise governmental collapse would occur due to the growing debt that cannot be repaid.
If inflation becomes a problem, rising interest rates would tend to push governments with large amounts of debt toward collapse because they would become unable even to make interest payments from current income.
In this self-organizing economy, buyers of goods don’t know or care much about the lives of the workers in the system. Optimal low costs of manufacturing in a world market might mean:
- Manufacturers have access to very inexpensive energy sources and use them.
- Pollution control is ignored to the maximum extent possible, without serious harm to the workers.
- Governments provide very little in the way of benefits to citizens, such as health care or pensions, keeping the cost of government low.
- Workers can get along on relatively low salaries because little heating or cooling of homes is needed.
- Workers don’t expect private vehicles, recreational activities, or advanced medical care.
Because the economy favors the lowest cost of profitable production, a person would expect that warm countries that use oil sparingly in their energy mix (India, the Philippines, and Vietnam, for example) would have a competitive edge over other countries in manufacturing.
In general, a person would expect non-OECD countries to outcompete OECD countries, especially if cheap fuel for manufacturing is available. The lack of cheap fuel is increasingly becoming a problem in many parts of the world. Coal used to be cheap, but its price can now spike. Natural gas prices can also spike, especially if natural gas is purchased without a long-term contract. Electricity using wind and solar tends to be high-priced, too, when the cost of transmission is included.
[8] The Maximum Power Principle seems to be pushing the EU away from diesel.
The EU has a serious oil problem. It has essentially no crude oil production of its own. Furthermore, oil production in Europe outside of the EU (mainly the UK and Norway) has been falling since 1999, greatly reducing the possibility of imported oil from this area (Figure 7).
Under these circumstances, members of the EU found that they needed to import nearly all of their oil, and that most of this oil needed to come from outside Europe.
When I look at the data regarding the types of oil the EU has chosen to consume (nearly all imported), I find that it uses an oil mix that is unusually skewed toward Middle Distillates and away from Light Distillates. (Compare Figure 8 with Figure 3).
Part of the reason the EU uses this skewed oil mix is because it has encouraged the use of private passenger cars using diesel through its tax structure. Underlying this tax structure was most likely an understanding that Russia, through its exports of Urals Oil, which is heavy, could provide the EU with the mix of oil products it needed, including extra diesel.
The EU has recently cut off most oil imports from Russia as a way of punishing Russia. This cutoff is being phased in, with most of the impact in 2023 and later. Thus, Figure 8 (which is through 2022) shouldn’t be much affected.
China and India are now buying most of Russia’s exported oil. These countries tend to use the oil more “efficiently” than the EU. In particular, they do more manufacturing than the EU, and they have far fewer private passenger cars per capita than the EU. Furthermore, the EU powers quite a few of its private passenger cars with diesel. If diesel is in short supply, efficiency demands that it should be saved for uses that require it, such as powering heavy equipment.
Because of the efficiency issue, I doubt that the EU will be able to continue importing as high a diesel mix in the future as it has been importing up to now. We know that Saudi Arabia cut back its oil exports by 1 million barrels per day, as of July 1, and this cutback is continuing into August. Russia is also cutting its production by 500,000 barrels a day, effective August 1. If oil prices rise again, I wonder whether the EU will be forced to cut back on its oil imports, essentially because of the Maximum Power Principle.
[9] The substitution of electricity for oil so far has been mostly in the direction of replacing gasoline usage for private passenger automobiles. Substitution of electricity for Middle Distillates would be virtually impossible.
Middle Distillates are largely used for the tough jobs–jobs that require big bursts of power. Electricity and the battery storage required for electricity are not adapted to these tough jobs. The vehicles become too heavy, especially when the big battery packs that would be required are considered. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that battery-powered commercial trucks can cost more than three times the price of diesel-powered trucks, a hurdle much smaller private passenger automobiles don’t face. The wide diversity of types of heavy commercial vehicles would be another huge hurdle in trying to substitute electricity for diesel.
Oil is a mixture of different hydrocarbon lengths. Substitution of electricity for one part of the hydrocarbon mix, namely for the Light Distillates, is not very helpful. Oil companies need to be able to sell all parts of the mix in order to make their extraction efforts worthwhile. If oil companies find themselves without buyers for most Light Distillates, they would have difficulty recouping their overall costs. There would be a possibility of oil production stopping. Without oil, farming would mostly stop. Road repair would stop. Today’s economy would come to a halt.
Of course, as a practical matter, the vast majority of the world will pay no attention to mandates that all private passenger automobiles be EVs. Buyers in most parts of the world will make decisions based on which cars are least expensive to own and operate. As a result, there is little chance of private passenger cars being completely replaced by EVs. Instead, EV mandates in some countries may somewhat reduce the selling price of gasoline worldwide because these drivers are no longer using gasoline. With lower gasoline prices, non-EV’s are likely to become cheaper to operate in countries where they are permitted, boosting their sales. This is an effect similar to Jevons Paradox.
[10] There are many related topics that could be addressed, but they will need to wait until later posts.
A few of samples of other issues:
[a] The world economy is tightly networked together. Inadequate oil supplies per capita tend to push the economy toward forced reduced activity, as was the case in 2020. Oil prices likely won’t rise a whole lot higher, for very long, if the economy is forced to shrink.
[b] Inadequate oil supplies per capita also tend to cause fighting among countries. OECD countries seem to over consume, relative to the benefits they provide to the rest of the world. Perhaps some grouping of non-OECD countries (or parts of countries) will take over in leadership roles.
[c] The self-organizing economy has different priorities than human leaders. All ecosystems in a finite world go through cycles. As conditions change, different species are favored, and new species emerge. Humans have a strong preference for recent conditions that helped humans thrive. Humans need a religion to follow, so leaders have created environmental sin to replace original sin. The catch is that ecosystems are built for change. Pollution can be viewed as a type of fertilizer for different types of species or recent mutations to thrive. Higher temperatures will have a net favorable effect for some organisms.
[d] If a local economy chooses to increase energy costs by taking steps to reduce its carbon footprint, the main impact may be to disadvantage the local economy relative to the world economy. If total energy costs are higher, the cost of finished goods and services is likely to be higher, making the economy less competitive.
[e] I expect that the members of the EU and other rich nations will be the primary countries pursuing carbon reduction technologies. Poorer economies may pay lip service to carbon reduction, but they will tend to focus primarily on increasing the welfare of their own people, whether or not this requires more carbon.
For example, in 2022, China accounted for 66% of global EV sales (5.0 million out of 7.7 million), thanks to subsidies that China made available. China no doubt had many motives, but one of them would seem to be to stimulate the economy. Another motive would be to increase the total number of vehicles in operation. The majority (61%) of electricity generation in China in 2022 was provided by electricity coming from coal-fired power plants, based on information from the Energy Institute. I would expect that more Chinese vehicles manufactured and placed into operation plus more use of electricity from coal would lead to a greater quantity of carbon emissions, rather than a smaller quantity.
Lil Tay, Teen Internet Rapper, Has Died
(Age 14)
https://variety.com/2023/music/news/lil-tay-dead-instagram-rapper-1235692008/
Well….. bye!
It sure as hell wasn’t the vax or booster shots because we all know that they are safe and effective. LeBron James even told us so after his 19 yr old son, Bronny suffered a heart attack while on the practice court. There’s a silver lining to all of this as Damar Hamlin (Buffalo Bills CB) offered his thoughts and prayers to the James family.
Best to cut this life short:
Lil Tay achieved viral fame as a 9-year-old social media influencer. The self-proclaimed “youngest flexer of the century,” she became known for her expletive-filled Instagram videos depicting a lavish hip-hop lifestyle. In one video, she boasted about buying a $200,000 sports car despite not having a drivers license. In another, filmed atop a Beverly Hills viewpoint, she proclaimed, “I run L.A.” Lil Tay was associated with popular rappers including Chief Keef and XXXTentacion, whom she called a “father figure” in a 2018 Instagram post. She drew backlash for using the N-word, later apologizing to those she had “offended.” In 2018, she starred in a three-episode docuseries about her rise to fame titled “Life With Lil Tay.”
Just as we discuss the energy pedigree (from oil well to refinery or open pit to the coal power station) from which electricity is delivered at the wall socket, it would be interesting to follow the money pedigree that funnels into these worthless, useless rappers who nevertheless seem to be worth fortunes. I don’t follow the Kardashians or Jenners and don’t even know which is which, but they are getting a lot of money for nothing. No doubt the fans have to have IQs lower than 80, but still, where are they getting the money, or is it that there are just so many of them now that all it takes is a few bucks from each fan?
For example no doubt these rappers attract a disproportionate number of blacks, especially black teenagers. But where are these teens getting the money to buy these rappers music, T shirts, and I guess throw in the guns and cars etc many of which are probably stolen.
These rappers like Snoop Dog have made hundreds of millions. Or are they subsidized by those in the music and movie industry who withdrew their subsidies from Kayne if you know what I mean?
The principal business model for a lot of media-related industries is to sell the audience to the advertisers. The fans often pay nothing, but are exposed to advertising, PR, propaganda, and/or conditioning of some kind.
In the case of influencers, the more they are able to influence the behavior of their audiences (or become influential), the better the rewards.
This is, of course, on top of anything else they make through site ads, subscriptions, public appearances, performances, royalties, and merchandising.
France has released AQ/ IS leaders in Niger. It is standard for USA/ NATO to use ‘terrorist’ groups to try to destabilise countries that eschew collective west hegemony.
It led to the wave of IS attacks in Europe and France in particular. Who to thank for the IS attacks in France? And that is now France’s first move in Niger, similar to what it did in Mali a few weeks back….
https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-maches-ston-nigira-gallikes-dynameis-epitethikan-stin-ethniki-froura-stinoun-emfylio-epeigousa-proeidopoiisi-asfaleias-apo-ipa/
First Battles in Niger: French Forces Attack National Guard – Free Terrorists & Set Up Civil War – US ‘Urgent Security Alert’ USA: Seek shelter immediately!
French special forces attacked a military post of the Niger National Guard and violated the airspace according to an official announcement by the military authorities of the country.
According to Niger’s military authorities, French special forces have carried out an operation to free imprisoned members of the deposed government and leaders of terrorist organizations.
Niger authorities said 16 leaders of terrorist groups arrested in June had been released by the French armed forces.
They further add that it seems that the aim of the French was to provide protection to armed nuclei who are going to operate inside the country.
Immediately after the announcement, the CNSP (Nigerian military authorities) announced in a press release that the alert level of the armed forces has been raised.
“This decision follows a terrorist attack on a garrison. The CNSP is now accusing France of releasing terrorists in the region,” sources in Niger state.
Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Niger has issued an “Urgent Security Alert” advising any US Citizens still in the capital Niamey to seek immediate shelter until further notice and not to attempt to enter the city center near the Presidential Palace.
A curfew has also been put in place for US Embassy Personnel due to the ongoing situation.
Earlier today, a French A400M military aircraft took off from N’Djamena (Chad) and went into stealth mode to violate Niger airspace between 6:39 am. and 11:15 a.m.
This modus operandi is similar to that used by French forces to provide support to their terrorist partners in Mali.
A few weeks ago, the French military freed 16 terrorists and helped them plan attacks against the military forces of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali in the Tri-Border region.
The terrorists freed by the French military were subsequently arrested during three operations in June and July 2023 (two in Niger, one in Mali) and confessed about the help they had received from the French military.
In addition, the Nigerian National Guard post in Bourkuburku (near Samira Gold Mine, Liptako Gourma District) was attacked earlier today. The exact casualties are currently unknown.
This pattern of behavior is consistent with France’s standard approach whenever an African nation chooses to end its military cooperation with them.
It is worth mentioning that France, which supposedly has the largest European army, has been stationed in the Sahel region since 2013, supposedly to fight terrorists.
However, after a decade, the results are evident: due to the presence of French troops, the terrorists have significantly expanded their territorial control and infiltrated the entire Sahel region.
Reuters reports that Niger’s military authorities accuse French troops of carrying out a plan to destabilize the country, adding that a French jet violated Niger’s airspace on Wednesday.
At the same time, Niger’s former rebel and minister of state, Rhissa Ag Boula, officially announced the creation of a Council of Resistance for Democracy (CRR).
The CRR called on the army to arrest the rebels and especially the coup plotter Tchiani.
The new faction also announced that it will use all available means (without specifying which) to fight the coup plotters.
Risa Ag Bulla said in a statement released today that the Council of Resistance for Democracy (CRR) intends to reinstate ousted president Mohamed Bazum, who is being held in his residence after the military seized power.
“Niger is the victim of a tragedy orchestrated by people tasked with protecting it,” the statement said.
The CRR supports ECOWAS and other international actors seeking to restore constitutional order in Niger, according to Ag Bulla’s statement adding that the movement will be at the organization’s disposal for any useful purpose.
A CRR member said several Nigerien politicians have joined the movement but could not announce it publicly for security reasons.
Ag Bula played a leading role in uprisings by the Tuareg, a nomadic ethnic group with a presence in Niger’s desert north, in the 1990s and 2000s. Like many former rebels, he was integrated into the government under Bazum and his predecessor Mahamadou Issoufou.
Although the extent of support for the CRR is unclear, Ag Bulla’s statement is a cause for concern among Niger’s new military government given his influence over the Tuareg, who control trade and politics in much of the vast north.
Tuareg support would be critical to ensure the new government’s control beyond the city limits of Niamey.
Niger’s Armed Forces, militias and law enforcement agencies across the country have been put on “High Alert” to defend the country from attacks by the French military.
Finally, yesterday’s information from WarNews247 is confirmed.
The ECOWAS Chief of Defense Staff requested a Force of at least 25,000 troops for military intervention in Niger, with the majority coming from Nigeria and small bodies also provided by Senegal, Benin and Cote d’Ivoire, with other ECOWAS members possibly to help.
Score another one for Gail regarding wind
Siemans:
“Siemens Energy, a major German player in the wind energy industry, told investors on Monday the losses at its wind turbine division will likely climb higher than previously thought. This comes amid broader financing turbulence in the wind industry, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. One executive at energy company Equinor didn’t mince words talking to the WSJ: “At the moment, we are seeing the industry’s first crisis.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wind-energy-faces-its-first-crisis-as-costs-mount/ar-AA1f13HH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=330c0b6a84a649e4a81ae249be7caf9a&ei=17
Stuff doesn’t work.
We need Starship to work, plenty of fusion energy in space and the reactor was commissioned a few billion years ago and is going strong.
Dennis L.
As I said, we have hit Peak Fancy Wind Turbines.
The penny drops?
Ukraine To Surrender Soon? U.S. Admits Kyiv ‘Unlikely’ To Succeed After ‘Mission Retake’ Flops
The U.S. is “losing faith” in the ability of Ukraine to penetrate Russian defences. U.S. officials, in conversation with an American media house, admitted that Kyiv can’t turn the tide. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is “highly unlikely to succeed,” said U.S. officials. U.S. Congressman Mike Quigley, who recently met with American commanders in Europe, said reports from the battlefield have become increasingly “sobering.” Ukraine has been trying to retake territories from Russia since the start of June. However, Kiev has failed to break through Russia’s multi-layered defence lines.
I think the Nazis in Ukraine and the fascist elites in the US, Canada, UK, and EU who support these Nazis are about out of willing manpower. They are all war criminals guilty of mass slaughter to pad their fortunes and hide their crimes.
Reportedly the Poles and Lithuanians are keen to have a foray into Western Ukraine.
Hope their boosters are up-to-date before they set off and they stay safe!
Time for US and the collective west start a draft.
US and Ukraine elites who supported this slaughter are war criminals – fascist scum.
Paybacks a b*tch since Russia has clearly won this war even with one hand tied behind its back.
Yep. We need to send some neocons in there with cookies. Messing around in Ukraine and putting that trash in power was always a mistake but you can’t say that to our little foreign policy geniuses and oligarchs.
More Styrofoam Buildings!!! Yes that’s what is needed https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/49866
This is a very good report explaining the predicament of oil companies.
https://ieefa.org/resources/declining-supermajors-profits-reveal-flaws-oil-and-gas-business-model
Declining supermajors profits reveal flaws in the oil and gas business model
The one place in all of the Americas building new nuclear power plants is right next to the home of Gail Tverberg. Is this a coincidence? I think not. Gail is a globally know energy expert. She appears to be simply a sweet grandmother but I propose she is a member of a deep grandmother network (GDN). That said network is making plans for the future. Their members practice forgotten skills like home cooking and face to face meeting at churches to exchange information. It will be telling to see what arrangements are made for the education of Gail’s grandchild. Will GDN institute neighborhood schools were kids actually walk to school? Will grandmas act as crossing guards? The future look bright for Grandmas but what role for grandpas?
In July, Georgia Power brought a new Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear reactor online, sending power to the U.S. grid. The Unit 3 reactor at Plant Vogtle in Georgia began operations last month following successful preliminary testing in March. The reactor generates around 1,110 MW of energy, enough to power roughly 500,000 homes and businesses.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/another-new-nuclear-reactor-energizes-us-clean-energy-hopes
I grew up in a different time and place–a small town in Wisconsin, in the days before interstate highways. I attended a Lutheran college in a small town in Minnesota.
My husband and I actually home-schooled our daughter for eighth grade–she was having migraine headaches, and she already knew all the material the school was teaching. In high school (and perhaps earlier), my children walked to school (with my encouragement), even though there was a bus that came to our door.
My husband is good at sitting on the floor and letting a small child crawl all over him. He thinks of all kinds of games to play with the child. He is also good at running audio visual equipment, and at taking notes at meetings. He has been on lots of committees over the years. He likes being the secretary.
I walked to school K-5. It was fun.
I never rode on a school bus to school. I nearly always walked or biked. Occasional rides when the weather was bad.
We have a community association … nice people I am sure… they have an AGM .. someone asked me once why I never attend… I said – it’s on Wednesday’s all the time — that’s hockey league night … they said – I see you have your priorities all sorted.
Indeed I do … Indeed I do… (and I would make up some other excuse if it was another day of the week – oh right – I work 18 hrs a day)
Apparently at the last one there was a motion to install Defib Machines at the 3 restaurants in the area. I’d struggle to vote for that — and then they’d attack. Best I stay away from this sort of thing
Not so different in the Alps, nowadays. We homeschooled during the Covid years, it even helped the grades. The kids walked to school through masses of snow “to learn to keep up studies under bad conditions”. The neighbour says, when he was young he had to walk two hours over snow one way to attend school.
The Hidden Chemicals Destroying American Farms – VICE Special Report
No idea why this farmer thought it wise to put bio-sludge on his property.
The US certainly has a lot of chemicals entering the ecosystem in many ways. All of the birth control pills, for example.
This is nothing … soon we’ll have forever spent fuel toxins in everything anyone alive touches or consumes hahahaha
Humans are smart. Really!
come on man — humans are smart.
hahahahaahaha yes really
Kul question,
Kul, you have a land fetish, I agree land is a good idea, so does Bill; we travel in good company.
Picked up an article on declining cities today; I like the Twin Cities but have moved to a nearby suburb for dance lessons; carjacking is becoming a problem. I have mentioned I sometimes deal in steel, it is next to car recycling plant and just north of a recently rebuilt gas station which suffered from recent fire damage, like to the ground.
So, land and castles. Perhaps the purpose of a castle in addition to providing protection from attack was crowd control. Become a PIA, sleep outside the walls; similar to parts of cities now, ordinary people, being shot, mugged, robbed etc. by people outside and through thin walls – a cast iron bathtub is a selling point in a residence. Behave yourself, be useful and to a limit all are welcome within the walls.
If the castle theory is correct, how much land to support a castle and keep the workforce safe? Running a group is an interesting project, cooperation is needed, a good boss is very valuable. Do the job well and those doing the working appreciate it. People need to feel safe, walls, a few knights with crossbows may be a good option.
Again my steel dealer, the workers are extremely polite, extremely helpful, shoplifting would be tough in any case, but these guys and gals wear work boots, their work clothes are neat, but they are dressed to work. The parking lot is very safe, but the near by gas station had fire problems. These places of business take up city blocks, they are built not unlike castles. I was somewhere else, similar, they had a German Shepard the size of a small horse, woof.
Dennis L.
No, no, no. This is wrong. Dennis is a farmer he lives in the country on a farm. He has no big city problems.
Ed,
Farms need steel, things wear out in dirt, with the right tools and a bit of knowledge, steel can be turned into useful parts.
Steel supplier is in the Cities, steel is more expensive than many know, shipping steel has become somewhat expensive, UPS drivers now make $170/Kyear so I run some of my own errands.
Had an apartment on Grand, St. Paul(pied a terre)and was considering taking courses at UM, commute on light rail. On a test run I found myself between a woman who was being harassed by a male while the other passengers kept their heads down. It went well, I did not get hurt and didn’t have to inflict pain, but neighborhood was too tough for me. He blinked, I am the guy whose grandfather purchased a former whore house as a family home, grandfather was killed on the railroad, it was the family home when I grew up, not the greatest neighborhood.
In January of this year:
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/minneapolis-metro-transit-police-officers-at-scene-near-light-rail-monday-night/
Too tough for me.
Living alone in country could be interesting as well, so far Rochester is not too bad and is maintained very well. One evening two groups were having a roman candle fight along my walk; let you imagination do the rest, it was a getting dark.
Dennis L.
Dennis, you’d enjoy ‘Gentle Rebels’ if you could ever locate it. I bought a copy years ago from a used book store in Fayetteville. I was surprised when it arrived and saw it had handwritten note of appreciation by Gerald McCathern to the attorney for the American Agriculture Movement. Must have come from his estate.
https://www.amazon.com/Gentle-rebels-American-Agriculture-McCathern/dp/B0006Y6OM8/ref=sr_1_13?keywords=gentle+rebels&s=books&sr=1-13
The land area of an acre was born because it was assumed that to support a person through the year one acre was needed.
Count Lev Tolstoy’s estate at Tula, which was later visited by Heinz Guderian, was 4,000 acres. The count lived like a king there.
Being a landowner means something different from owning a few acres here and there. The closest American analogy is the old western “Bonanza”, where the Cartwright family basically owns everything in the town, or some books of William Faulkner (who also had a side job of being a screenwriter btw) where the local elite family basically had every power, including getting away with a murder (A Rose for Emily – her murder of a Northern man who refused to marry her is only revealed after her death).
.The landowner knows the mayor, the police chief, the fire chief, the local politician, the local pastor/priest, etc. The entire town becomes the landowner’s turf. It does not matter who becomes the President or whatever. The landowner’s power is eternal, for all practical purposes, in that locale.
More thoughts on time grows short.
Space X is literally building ships as fast as possible while at the same time designing/building a launch pad with haste and seemingly limitless money. The pad was apparently built 24/7.
Why? Could the powers that be know time is truly short as with the diesel export model above? To get a rough idea of how much time we have perhaps use SpaceX Starship as a timeline. Everyone seems to be going to the moon all of a sudden, it is the “in” place to be. Why?
Going to post a Kul question, I don’t know much history.
Next,
Dennis L.
”moonshots” are business delusion.
i’ll try to explain why—but this is just my own take on it, i could be wrong
if you have a large pot of money, the imperative is to make it into a bigger pot. In the recent past, over the last, say 150 years, you could invest it in extractive industry, in particular fossil fuel extraction. The returns were relatively generous.
Those days are gone.
There is little to invest in, so
someone like Musk, having made $billions producing electric cars, (a venture which is questionable in long term viability), thinks that he can pull it off again by setting off fireworks and produce even more $billions.
ie—instead of Tesla cars running horizontally to take people fro A to B, the idea is to have Teslas running vertically, to ultimately extract resources from space.
As long as energy is expended, a profitable return is certain. Except that moonshots or asteroid shots can never return a profit.—the return can never exceed investment.
this is the reality that ”spacefarers”’ can never accept
ding ding ding… We have a winner. Could also be a cover for war R&D.
‘Except that moonshots or asteroid shots can never return a profit.—the return can never exceed investment.
this is the reality that ”spacefarers”’ can never accept’
You don’t know that. The technical hurdles are large indeed, but we do not know at this point that the return can never exceed the investment. We know that the investment will be huge. But an SPS business could generate huge returns, because the market for energy is huge.
Products, such as food, made with energy products (even from moonshots) have to be affordable. This puts a cap on energy prices.
it just get tiring
Peter
i think you see ”investment” as money
whereas i see ”investment” as energy.
to refine this concept, all money represents a token of energy, so if money is ”invested” in space projects it must be underpinned by energy availability. (Here on Earth)
or alternatively have a reasonable certainty of an energy return on whatever the expedition is, or goes to.
if that energy isn’t there–you would just be printing money to pay for the project, which would collapse the economic system financing it.
to clarify this further, if you bring back a million tons of asteroid, of whatever element, copper, iron,—whatever, that element is useless unless heat energy is available to process it into products of some kind of value….ie desirable ”stuff”.
i think we can be pretty sure that no coal or oil would available ”out there”.
yes, the sun’s energy is there, in space, but it still has to be used to produce ”things” that people want to buy.—a tv set, or washing machine made ”off earth” would cost so much, none would ever be sold.
There are no markets anywhere but here on Earth.
which brings me back to my point, that i dont think there could ever be sufficient energy return on ”space investment” to make it viable.
But maybe i’ve missed something.
‘which brings me back to my point, that i dont think there could ever be sufficient energy return on ”space investment” to make it viable.’
Others have said the same thing. I do not at present have an answer for what the EROI of a solar power satellite would be. I think for anyone advocating this concept, it is important knowledge. I will look into it.
Would anyone be ok with Peter’s vote cancelling yours … if there was democracy?
Keep in mind he’d vote for the party that promises to spend (waste) billions of your money on insane schemes
Peter
You many notice eddys comment on this
eddy does not allow adult rational discussion on any subject that is beyond his ability to understand the points being made.
you’ll find that on lots of threads
We are dealing with a complex system. Any calculation of what seem to be the direct energy costs would be understated.
For example, we have to have an electric grid on the ground that can handle this electricity. The one we have now badly needs upgrading. Somehow of needs upgrading. Some of the “surplus energy” from the solar satellite system would probably be needed to cover the (energy and dollar) cost of the upgrading.
While hopefully the solar power satellite system would provide 24/7/365 power, some of the recent discussion I have noticed talks about something less than this. Then we get back to something analogous to what we have now from solar panels. It is only available part of the time. It would need to be integrated with some other power system that perhaps would have to run less than full time. Having two parallel systems adds inefficiency to the system. In fact, it is not clear that the system would be a whole lot better than a solar system here on earth. The major benefit might be getting the long term pollution off the earth.
Don’t know if this was posted here earlier . Rystad reserves 2023 . Read the comments section also .
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2023/06/reservas-mundiales-de-petroleo-segun.html
From the blog post:
I think it is necessary to assume that the economy continue to function all this time too.
In the comments, someone quotes Ron Patterson:
RON PATTERSON
06/29/2023 10:51 AM
Quark, thanks for this data. It’s amazing. I would say that Rystad Energy is a much more reliable source of reserves than the OPEC propaganda. I’m going to save this and use it as a source for future discussions.
I also loved the comments and discussion on your blog. Very interesting. I’ll add my two cents worth. I don’t see seven years of quiet before the peak oil panic hits. I see a decrease in production starting this year and a panic starting three or four years from now.
Thanks again.
They won’t want to try to time this to closely … one will want to have plenty of buffer as one releases the cannisters with phase two of the binary poison…
Better early than late…
Another one of his comments:
RON PATTERSON
07/01/2023 at 9:34 am
***I ALSO recall Ron saying “When US peaks the World Peaks” like multiple times and I thought it was a pretty reasonable probability.***
Bullshit! I never said any such thing! In fact I have always maintained the exact opposite. I have always said that the US is just a bit player in the grand scheme of things. (From here on out, not in the past.) I have stressed that point over and over. Dennis can confirm that because it was always in response to his argument that the US had not yet peaked while others were arguing the US had peaked.
My point has always been that the US Peak has very little to do with world peak. I know that the US is currently the world’s largest oil producer but our days of dramatic growth are over. We may increase production a little but nothing to compare with our growth in the heydays of dramatic shale growth.
Yes, I have said, many times, that it looks like the IEA, the EIA, or whomever, are depending on the US to keep peak oil at bay. But I then stressed that US growth was over. The US will not save the world from peak oil. That is, and has always been, my point.
Note: The World peaked one full year before the US peaked. The US may, or may not, surpass their peak of 2019. The world will not surpass its peak of November 2018.
Why are you posting a link in Spanish? You’re a bot? Here is the original site:
https://peakoilbarrel.com/steo-and-tight-oil-update-june-2023
I just found that with Brave browser you can translate from an icon on the right of the URL box, but the link used to get to the article stays untranslated.
I just downloaded this report by Lars Larsen . ” The end of global net oil exports ” . He picks up on ELM model of Jeffery Brown and brings it up-to-date . The report is dated 3rd August . His conclusion ” No diesel by 2026/27 and maybe earlier . End of story . Just skimmed thru it and kept it for weekend reading ( 98 pages ) . Analysis OPEC etc . Request Gail to read it and comment .
https://ia902602.us.archive.org/2/items/oil-exports.-34odt-1/Oil%20exports.75odt%20%281%29.pdf
Good article puts the fear of starvation in one.
Thanks!
I think of the US as simply trading light oil exports for heavy oil imports. This kind of thing has to happen for the refineries to keep operating because each refinery takes a specific mix of heavy and light oils (or just one or the other).
The US imports heavy oil from Canada and refines it. The US exports our overly light oil to various countries that can make use of it. The US has refinery capacity that serves both Canada and Mexico, to some extent, which confuses the matter. In some cases, the US refines oil and sends the products back. It is really the “net exports” of (oil+oil products) that has to fail at some point.
I agree that oil exports will have to decline in the near future. The catch is that countries specializing in oil exports will still need food and other types of imports. They can’t get the food they need unless they have something to trade. They will have to reduce their own oil usage (build fewer buildings and roads, for example), if they are to buy the things that are truly essential.
“No diesel by 2026/2027” Gulp!!
Better get partying guys, that means only 3 years left to dance the nights away.
10 years ago i was forecasting ‘mid 2020s’ for ultimate collapse
now take that a stage further.
The Don gets to be POTUS again in 2024. Fuel supplies start to collapse by 26/27
Civil unrest kicks in on a wide scale, thats a certainty once fuel and food supplies break down. No diesel, no food—simple as that.
POTUS brings in martial law to keep order.
The Don is the POTUS figurehead dictator, but the real nasty business of that will be carried out by others, behind the scenes.
By 2030 you have a full blown dictatorship.
i might be out by a year or two, but not much.
hahahahaha … norm the optimist!
We’ll all be dead — there won’t be a dictatorship hahahahaha
Or, Biden stays in the White House or the Hollywood set of the Oval Office for four more years and everything is tikedy-boo and hunky dory.
Racial, sexual and gender harmony fills the land, Putin is utterly defeated, Europe goes back to peace and prosperity, and fuel supplies flow like the Mississippi despite Biden’s restrictions on drilling and fracking.
Wake me up when that happens.
Did you notice that the US has a half-blown dictatorship already? Byran Caplan noted in 2021:
“During Covid, legislatures became extraordinarily deferential to their executives. Congress deferred to the President, yes. But more shockingly, state legislatures across the country virtually abdicated in favor of their governors. On everything Covid-related – and what isn’t “Covid-related”? – governors have essentially ruled by decree since March of 2020.
“In short, America is now an elective dictatorship. Unlike almost all historical dictatorships, however, these are dictatorships within a federal system. Every governor makes it up as he goes along… but he only makes it up for his own state. Elections will still happen, possibly replacing one dictator with another. But until those days of reckoning, whoever won the last election has a remarkably free hand to do as he pleases.”
whichever head of state is elected, faces one massive insoluble problem,–we know what it is.
we don’t need to trawl through that again.
each will deal with it in his own way
it wont affect the ultimate outcome one bit, or the consequences for humankind.
I think it unlikely that Trump will be reelected in 2024. In the 2019 election, the Dems introduced postal voting in every state that they could. They then carried out vote harvesting and even signed dead people onto the electoral roll. There was significant electoral fraud that was never properly investigated and is probably impossible to prove.
They have done this twice and got away with it. Why would they not do it again?
Even if Trump is reelected, he isn’t going to be able to everything right. He might be able to modify the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ to filter out some of the more wasteful programmes. But as others here have said, the president is just a front man.
i was under the impression that this ”including dead voters” thing, by either side GOP and Dems, was debunked by several court cases years ago?
An opposite of Nuovo Cinema Paradiso is the move Leopard (1961) , directed by a real aristocrat, Luchino Visconti di Modrone, conte di Lonate Pozzolo.
It is based upon a novel by Duke Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa, who was the 11th and last duke of Lampedusa. (Apparently he was impotent, and although he was married it is likely that he never consummated his marriage)
The original book has some superfluous details spreading over 40 years but Visconti chose to use only the passage regarding the wedding.
In that book, Fabrizio, the duke of Salina, a ruler of a town in some area of southern Italy, has children but he saw all them to be useless. He puts all of his hopes on his nephew Tancredi.
The forces of Garibaldi landed in the town ruled by Salina, and there is a battle, but Tancredi jpin Garibaldi’s forces and the local peasants and poor, knowing Tancredi is heir of the ruler, complies to him.
Time goes on, and Tancredi changes his allegiance from Garibaldi to the more stable Piedmontese side. A local mayor, who became nouveau riche thru a bunch of things which are less then respectable, comes to see the Duke, and the latter decided to marry Tancredi to the mayor’s daughter Angelica, although the Duke’s own daughter wanted to marry Tancredi herself. That decision condemns her to spinsterhood (he had 3 daughters, none of them he marries since no one brought the dowries for them)
The Duke decided his less than talented children would run the family to the ground and decided to write them off, and he liked the ability of Tancredi to change sides quickly and adapt and judged the future lied with people like Tancredi and the new rich Angelica, although her family was not aristocratic and had bad reputations, had money so that was enough.
The rest of the movie is about the elaborate wedding.where not much happens. In the end, the Duke gives the carriage he was riding to the Tancredi couple, and he walks back to his mansion, which will pass to Tancredi after the death of the Duke, who would be the last of his line.
The face of the elites changes, but the old ruling class remains in some way and the peasants and the laborers stay destitute. That’s how the world works.
The director Visconti was a communist, but seeing a huge internal fight within the party , he realized the dreams of communism cannot be accomplished and made this movie to tell the world about how real elites operated.
Don’t think of it as a cost, see it as adding to GDP.
Timber!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/wind-turbine-in-northern-germany-snaps-and-collapses-following-storm/vi-AA1eZqGs?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=04c35c0c62f64420958a824270f264fa&ei=24
The wind is persistent in trying to rid the landscape of these things.
Gravity, always gravity.
Dennis L.
You make a good point. Anything that leads to an expenditure of money, even hauling away the no-longer-functioning wind turbine and putting it in landfill somewhere, adds to GDP. It adds to the demand for fossil fuel energy, to power the devices needed to make possible whatever changes take place.
Hurricanes add to the GDP of an area if somehow clean-up and rebuilding are able to take place. Payouts from insurance companies can help, and so can government handouts (usually debt-based, but debt is not reflected in GDP calculations). So can expenditures of individual citizens, whether taken from bank accounts or based on added debt.
I was surprised to learn from US GDP data that World War II greatly helped US GDP. There still was an unemployment problem from the depression. World War II gave the US an excuse for more debt. The debt allowed the hiring of many people, including women who had not been in the workforce before. I am sure that making war munitions was part of GDP. I imagine the GDP effect is part of what makes war so popular with countries that are doing poorly economically.
It is possible that this issue has played a role for Russia, as well. Russia was not getting a very high margin for exporting its heavy oil (or its natural gas to Europe by pipeline). Directly or indirectly, this lack of revenue for major exports would have many bad impacts on the economy. The war could perhaps counter some of these impacts. For example, in Russia there were suddenly more munitions manufacturing jobs. There was a “cause” to get behind. Russia’s oil consumption per capita rose in 2022, while oil consumption per capita in many other parts of the world fell. Now Russia seems to be shifting its alliances toward China and India, countries that can perhaps afford to pay more for fossil fuels of all kinds.
Yes,
“There was a “cause” to get behind.”
People need something to be part of, something greater than themselves. Boredom leads to a wasted life, work that is trivial but part of a greater whole gives meaning. Throwing “blue” collar work was a social mistake. A sewer worker is a very valuable part of society.
Dennis L.
If we have the oil industry on the one side and the economy on the other side and one is fueling the other, we can think of an effective or an ineffective organisation and it might be that the emerging economies are more effective in keeping the circle going, while the old economies face diminishing returns due to growing complexity.
On the other hand, if you want to stretch and lever the existing energy by solar and wind, it can only be set up in a country with high credibility for such an investment. And there is need of a crisis to change the flows of investment. Both might help to keep BAU running a bit.
trouble is
”emerging economies” also want wheels, aircon, air transport and all the rest of it.
they won’t be satisfied with anything less
Why Van Allen Belts are not an insurmountable barrier to space travel.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Allen_radiation_belt
The inner belt extends from 1000km to 12,000km above Earth surface. Dose rate in the inner belt is 25 Sv per year, with 5 Sv being LD50 for humans. However, the Apollo missions travelled through it at circa 25,000km/h. So astronauts were exposed for less than an hour in each direction. Total dose would have been ~3mSv.
Don’t mess with the all knowing great massa one here known as Fast Eddie..
This is his realm and reality fits his vision , no matter what.
Like it really matters regarding the outcomes we humans are facing in regards to the final solution….
Personally, this is the greatest show on Earth ..migrating to the Lunar surface as we perish here on the planet…how ironic…simply a Shakespearian play..
Going out with a BANG …picture a Stanley Kubrick scene with a space bus shuttle leaving as the surface burns from a host of horrors as we play We’ll meet Again…..sStrange
A vision driven by logic like this:
Why is NASA working on a space ship that can travel through the belts without killing the folks inside…
https://youtu.be/4O5dPsu66Kw?t=182
eddy isn’t going to like that
Why is NASA working on a space ship that can travel through the belts without killing the folks inside… when we already did it in a tin can?
https://youtu.be/4O5dPsu66Kw?t=182
The Van Allen belts would kill anyone who spent enough time exposed to them. The Apollo astronauts went through them twice at high speed. So dose was limited by the short exposure time. They do pose a challenge to satellites whose orbit takes them repeatedly through the belts.
One trip through the belt may only give a dose of 1-2mSv. But repeated crossings would rack up dose rapidly. A dose of 2mSv is equivelent to a whole year of background dose for most people on Earth. So this isn’t something that it would be acceptable to put people through multiple times. The spacecraft needs to be shielded if the same astronauts are to make multiple trips. A 2mSv dose is an extra 1/20,000 chance of dying from cancer. If you go back and forth 5x, that increases to an extra 1 in 2000 chance. Eventually, the extra health risk becomes excessive.
You have not explained why they are spending big bucks on trying to make a craft that can pass through the belts and keep the people inside alive
You got a lot of splaining to do per Lucy..
Funny..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jb77H1gf3YI&pp=ygUZUmlja2llIHJlY2FyZG8gZXhwbGFpbmluZw%3D%3D
excellent article on the Chinese building fantasy
https://www.re-thinkingthefuture.com/architectural-community/a8758-why-china-is-demolishing-skyscrapers/
I think that China overestimated how much of a leap forward the economy could take, with its coal resources. Once extraction from coal resources flattened, the economy could not grow nearly as rapidly. Coal production flattened way back in 2012. They have been covering up the issue (to some extent) with growing debt. Ultimately, the overbuilt situation had to be dealt with.
We are not the only ones who realize time grows short.
“The immense pressure and heat from the Raptor engines also wrecked the launchpad, prompting engineers to create a new water-cooled flame deflector, a water-deluge system made of steel that’s designed to deflect the tremendous heat and force generated by the rocket as it leaves the ground.
SpaceX’s recent static fire exercise (video below) tested not only the rocket engines, but also the new launchpad design, which appeared to comfortably withstand the engine firing.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/spacex-images-flaunt-the-awesome-power-of-starship-rocket/ar-AA1eZ9nq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=5760bb3482904da9812d08d11bfe14d7&ei=19
Four months to repair the launch site, and Elon was smart enough to blast a good portion of it with the first launch; my understanding the cooling plate was in process prior to first launch, Elon wanted data from first launch, getting rid of some useless concrete was a secondary benefit. There is a huge amount of money behind this and it is using real stuff, not fiat paper.
I think the environmental/climate people have some points and this current space ship earth works very well indeed. Jupiter was made for pollution, new solar dump for earth’s waste which never makes it to earth.
They have thought of something, the fabric of the universe is being revealed to us as we need it; humans are very remarkable, we will make it.
Dennis L.
Good intro/summary on complexity theory and the butterfly effect from The Chicken today (Doomberg) most behind a paywall.
While on one hand we have mainstream legacy media controlling the “information” flow to the masses, we now have an army of bloggers each trying to pitch his/her theories and why you should like, share ,subscribe to his channel and after that subscribe to his channel and send him your money for a subscription and or for him to “manage.(Skim).
Things are so complex, there is no way these “gurus” can get it right. Meanwhile after having
Mikel Maloney sold his company, Peter Schiff sold his company, John Rubin sold his company. Those who made small or large fortunes gaming a corrupt system, now get religion and preach the ills of our financial system. They never did anything to fight it, they just played the game, and the rest of us for chumps.
In contrast, for example John Adam’s from Australia has launched a courageous and costly attack against the corruption in the Australian gold and silver exchanges,/Perth Mint calling them out on their illegal manipulation of gold price and deception in allocated vs non allocated precious metals and how they have been charging to store paper , not physical wealth.
So practically all the others are pure opportunists, those out not to try to fix things, but to grift off the corrupt system and once they have made fortunes, become oh-so-righteous.
But hand Michael Pento with his 20 point model to manage your wealth, with a 100K minimum? You might as well go to your fortune teller for advice. Like the weather, things today are too complex for anyone to predict, unless of course like Warren Buffet, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg etc when you have inside government funding if you become a government information/data mining accomplice for the CIA or else if you are one of the privileged bankers who, even if you are screw up , get bailouts from the FED.
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/warehouse-wars?publication_id=343139&isFreemail=true
Mike Adams has come a long way in recent times.
Gail, have a listen to this podcast. I found it fascinating and the beliefs he espouses align reasonably closely with yours: https://www.brighteon.com/1562248e-9812-4881-b5ee-02be79b1ae9a
Robert Kiyosaki comes on as a guest and talks about real economics vs fiat.
I’ve tried a few times over the years to listen to this guy but he seems to say nothing at all in the most drawn out long winded way possible.
@ D Stevens. Agree. With people like Adams, Kyosaki, and even with Martinson, sales come first. Kind of like picking a cause like “Are you against animal cruelty?” Of course you are. So help support me by sending me money. Or do you think the financial system is corrupt? If so, then send me money and support my channel and me.
Bottom line, there is a fine line between those who are sincerely interested in actively fighting for a cause and those who just want to profit from it. Yes, we need people to spread the word and inform us, but at what point are these people telling us what sells?
Kind of like all these Prepper sites. Most of the advice is not practical or unrealistic for the average person, and if we ever get into a real SHTF scenario, events will unfold in very unpredictable ways. Translation: most of us will be F’d anyway. But I guess the illusion of preparedness is like the illusion of you winning the mega millions lottery. BTW, did anyone win last night, $1.5 billion jackpot?
martenson is a total f789ing jerk off grifter… selling his Doomie Prepper Survival Kits…
What, the smug condescending way about him doesn’t convince you to buy his course?
The podcast starts out talking about the big difference between those who believe truths and those who believe lies.
I can believe that there are a lot of us trying to figure out the truth. If Robert Kiyosaki and Mike Adams believe the truth, I can imagine what they believe is close to what I believe.
I am afraid I don’t have almost two hours to listen to this podcast, however.
The only truth anyone needs to know is that we are deep into the depletion of affordable energy — and the Elders are responding by exterminating us.
If they fail The Gates of Hell will open — and the demons of Murder Rape Disease Cannibalism and Spent Fuel Ponds… will be unleashed.
All else is worthless bullshit
SCHAD https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12383237/Weightlifting-coach-Chris-Ciancio-dies-suddenly-holiday-Italy-leaving-young-family-efforts-begin-bring-body-Australia.html
Mass D https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/50302
come on man … just release the f789ing poison… the DM is working …
I will welcome the end … https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/50305
Stock markets mostly fell Tuesday on renewed concerns that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again, while another weak batch of trade data compounded worries about the struggling Chinese economy.
https://insiderpaper.com/markets-drop-as-traders-fret-over-another-fed-hike/
China Slides Into Deflation as Consumer, Factory Prices Drop
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-09/china-slides-into-deflation-as-consumer-producer-prices-decline?srnd=premium-asia
These 300MWe boiling water reactors are one of the leading candidate SMRs.
https://nuclear.gepower.com/build-a-plant/products/nuclear-power-plants-overview/bwrx-300
Each one will generate enough electric power for a city of half a million people at European consumption rates. The main buildings are compact enough to fit on a football pitch, with individual components small enough to be shipped in by road or rail. Projected build times are 24-36 months.
My money is on a future powered by https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181119-why-flammable-ice-could-be-the-future-of-energy
THanks for the update. A friend of mine sent me this type of info 10 years ago. HOw may have been built and are in use today? None.
See you in ten years at the optimists reunion.
Nailed it
Also processed uranium supply issue.
The air force transport planes are in surge mode today. Maybe for the Niger war?
The F16 is the cut down cheap limited capable version of the F15. The F16 has a range of 450 miles, the F15 has a range of 1250 miles. The F15 has a higher altitude of operation versus the F16. An F15 can attack from above the F16. The F16 is the safe version the US gives to the third world. It is easily defeated by the F15, F22, F35.
Biben where are the F15s for Ukraine? For the Bastion of “Our Democracy”!
So Ukraine can fight at most a limited war.
Just enough for some photo shoots
When I was a teenager, I experienced the mall like peasants must have experienced festival days, only the festival was perpetual. But now whatever tall gods walked within those halls have fallen down. Now they must scrunch themselves inside a computer screen or, even worse, a phone.
It’s not the people stopped shopping. It’s that people stopped shopping together. Today, the main communal experience of capitalism is filling a neighborhood dumpster with cardboard. Whereas the gathering site of penultimate capitalism was the mall, the gathering site of late capitalism is the bin. The mall is still there but it’s dead. It’s a mausoleum.
https://indi.ca/the-mausoleum-of-the-mall/
Churches or cathedrals lasted almost 2,000 years as the West’s premier communal spaces, while the supermarkets and malls that replaced them have lasted only 40 or 50. It didn’t take very long for them to loose their luster.
“Today, the main communal experience of capitalism is filling a neighborhood dumpster with cardboard.”
Good one!
Bonus: You win today’s gratuitous cynicism medal.
I am afraid that is the way it is, especially for apartment dwellers. Today’s apartments seem to have washing machines and driers inside of them, so the laundry room is no longer a meeting place.
He was having a nice nap until…. https://i.postimg.cc/VLrmwyYk/Wherestherabbit.png
Former college tennis star Lilly Kimbell died of a heart attack at 31 after she suddenly collapsed at home and was rushed to the hospital.
Despite efforts to perform CPR and save her life, doctors determined she had a massive heart attack.
The lack of oxygen left her brain unable to regain consciousness, and she was removed from life support.
https://is.gd/nntuZp
An undiagnosed heart condition?
In other news, it seems that Jamie Foxx’s replica is doing just great:
https://people.com/jamie-foxx-was-spot-on-as-he-had-first-photo-taken-since-medical-emergency-it-was-like-nothing-happened-exclusive-7564087
Wow – I now believe in miracles
I need to have a stroke — it knocks 30 yrs off one’s age!!!
Is it kinda like rebooting the computer?
I believe in the tooth fairy. Does that count?
The ‘touch up’ fairy? No?
A shorter hiatus to fix up a few blemishes and crinkles, or just plain old photoshopping.
They have to lockdown (again)
Nobody is going to show up for election rallies for either side.
Fake polls can only take you so far.
This time Biden should campaign and win from a dementia care facility just to rub it in.
Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Joe Biden win reelection so as to accelerate this train wreck. Amerika “IS” Joe Biden.
Sleepy Joe. The guy who shakes hands with thin air, gives speeches about ‘the Iraq war in Ukraine’ and sells political influence to the Chinese. On an average day, he doesn’t seem to know where he is. Under his tenure, the legal system has been openly corrupted to punish his political enemies.
Politics aside, this guy makes Donald Trump look good.
President Trump was elected president twice and he will be elected president for a third time in 2024. He will pardon all Jan 6th patriots. He will end the slaughter of Ukrainians. He will bring peace to America and the world.
Trump was a better president than Sleepy Joe. But that is a low bar to reach.
Sleepy Joe drained the strategic midterm reserve, eh, I mean the strategic oil reserve, for cynical political reasons. He has inflated government debt by trillions of dollars, pouring the money into all sorts of unproductive ideological programs. He has removed all security from the southern border, resulting in an exodus of third world flea bags flooding the country. He has corrupted the legal system to persecute political opponants. Who needs enemies with a president like that?
You forgot “and make America great again”.
And he will drain the swamp – this time – he promises he will
no doubt you’ll be happy when trump takes over again
I think it’s sad that in a country of nearly 400m people, those two poorly educated old men are the options you have to choose between.
Education = learned in whatever scientific “models” are currently popular, and the basis supposedly supporting them.
In ages past, people respected their elders as having lived long enough to observe many things.
i agree
one should be retired—and knows it
the other is deluded fraudster with people waiting in the wings to use him if he should get elected
Norm, this time T-man is gonna make good on his promises! I heard it from Q so you know it’s legit!
that’s because anyone who is capable understands that the job is that of a flunky… an actor… and errand boy ….
The Elders will decide
Education, Social Engineering, and Hope and Change
https://sagehana.substack.com/p/education-social-engineering-and
Includes the George Carlin (funny) video:
https://youtu.be/Nyvxt1svxso
Forget all the “great” speeches by FDR, JFK, MLK, Winston Churchill, etc etc. Essentially politicians delivering political theater.
George Carlin’s rant will go down in history as the oration of the ages, at least for the 2Oth and 21st centuries.
The puzzle pieces continue to fall into place, and a significant new puzzle piece dropped last week, in the form of a preprint published to MedRxIV on July 31st, titled “SARS-CoV-2 Uses CD4 to Infect T Helper Lymphocytes.”
Although “just” a preprint, it features no fewer than seventy-seven authors. And it has already gathered three positive peer reviews. Let’s start with their conclusion, and then try to unpack what it means. The study’s admittedly obscure conclusion:
We demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S) directly binds to the CD4 molecule, which in turn mediates the entry of SARS-CoV-2 in T helper cells. This leads to impaired CD4 T cell function and may cause cell death. SARS-CoV-2-infected T helper cells express higher levels of IL-10, which is associated with viral persistence and disease severity. Thus, CD4-mediated SARS-CoV-2 infection of T helper cells may contribute to a poor immune response in COVID-19 patients.
The researchers figured this out by first using sophisticated genetic software to analyze covid’s RNA. The results showed that covid’s spike protein potentially interacts with 77 different human tissues. But, after they filtered the results for proteins found on the outside of human cells, which are accessible to the spike, they found only one match: something called CD4 helper cells.
Then the researchers proved that covid does target CD4 cells in vivo, including by infecting previously un-infected blood, and by testing blood samples from recovering covid patients. They were very careful and the result seems pretty well established. So it almost seems like the spike was designed to attack this one particular type of cell. But what is it?
CD4 cells are also called “T helper cells.” They are a type of white blood cell playing a critical role in the immune system. Specifically, CD4 is a key part of the adaptive immune response, which is the body’s initial defense mechanism against infections.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/jackpot-tuesday-august-8-2023-c-and
About that Unnatural Evolution of Omicron Again
The scientists say it couldn’t have happened naturally. And not just Omicron?
https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/about-that-unnatural-evolution-of
The binary poison … was made in a lab too
Omicron seemed too different from other variants when it came out to be a natural variation.
I’d really like to see the full game plan for what they are doing… it must be a fascinating (and horrifying) read
URGENT: Italian researchers find Covid vaccine myocarditis relapses in teenage boys following apparently complete initial recovery
The mRNA shots are the gift that keeps on giving. At best, we may be monitoring a lot of teens and young adults for heart damage for a long, long time.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-italian-researchers-find-covid
There ain’t no way to UNf789 yourself… the spike poisons every organ in the body …
Tick tock Vaxxers… Tickf789ingTock…..
Here’s an IQ test — does reading the above make you as a Vaxxer anxious? If not … you failed the test hahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahaha
thanks for update FE
https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57d675fc46c3c43b07adb974/1675462552582-XRG2JZNSX3360FJI0MTD/One+Of+The+Good+Guys+200.jpg
https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57d675fc46c3c43b07adb974/1673800669411-K2S9Z54XDFYVC2VK53GL/VICTIMS+400+2.jpg
https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/57d675fc46c3c43b07adb974/1667669061704-GY5VNMF996Y3HV088VKN/Psyop+27+200.jpg
https://www.bobmoran.co.uk/
But please don’t think I’m ending this on a hopeful note.
https://indi.ca/why-renewables-wont-end-environmental-destruction/
hahahaha…. I like this!!!
FE,
Thank you for your support! Plunder the solar system, shoot all waste products into Jupiter and above all, think Green!
Save our spaceship earth.
Dennis L
Would wind turbines work on Jupiter?
Can a helicopter fly in the near zero atmosphere of Mars?
Except with the help of CGI
Country Garden said on Tuesday it has not paid two dollar bond coupons due on Aug. 6 totalling $22.5 million, confirming market fears that the biggest privately owned developer in China is slipping into repayment troubles.
China’s giant property sector has seen a string of debt defaults by cash-squeezed developers since late 2021, with China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted property developer, at the centre of the crisis.
Country Garden, which had total liabilities of 1.4 trillion yuan ($194 billion) at the end of 2022 and large exposure in lower-tier cities, told Reuters in a separate statement that it is improving capital arrangements to ensure the legal rights of creditors.
It added its usable cash had declined, showing “periodic liquidity stress”, due to a deterioration in the sales and refinancing environment, and the impact from various fund regulations.
“The company has been holding fast, but it’s hard to see the dawn light,” it said, highlighting efforts to ensure home deliveries and debt repayments as the industry grapples with “unprecedented difficulties”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/country-garden-misses-bond-payments-as-china-property-fears-flare/ar-AA1eWRWz
In the US, with respect to commercial property, I see that Zerohedge is reporting
WeWork Shares Collapse After Company Warns “Substantial Doubt” Exists About Staying In Business”
The company reported:
The dipshit founder walked away from this with how many Bills…
Wonder if they believe it could powder keg the CRE market and will designate as a zombie… and feed it $$$
If you go to reddit’s r/fatfire, you see a lot of people in their 30s and early 40s having accumulated millions of dollars.
They don’t really consume too much, other than an odd luxury here and there. A lot of them are childless since children are burden for wealth building; they might have one or two in their 40s or 50s thanks to improved fertility treatments.
Their wealth are growing, and will grow forever, and yes, they are aware of collapse as an insurance policy and a lot of them are preppers.
They are smart, ruthless and very efficient, leaving absolutely nothing for the rest of population .
They are also born with a keen eye to discern who is profitable and who is not, and do not really treat those they deem to be unprofitable as humans.
A kit of people here are older and don’t really deal with such people at fatfire. These people are smart, ruthless, merciless and will own the world.
someone can accumulate millions, without appearing to consume much
but those millions are the cumulative efforts and consumption of lesser ‘unknown’ people
same as Bezos—his billions are the result of the rest of us playing his game of ”pass the parcel”
Children are wealth assuming they chose their parents wisely. One of your earlier posts regarded landed seemed to state this in respect to Toto I think.
One needs both, money and children.
Dennis L.
Well, it does cost a pretty penny to raise a child
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/08/us/victims-allen-texas-outlet-mall-shooting/index.html
Father an attorney. Mother a dentist. Went to an outlet to exchange a piece of clothing. Victims of mass shooting.
==
https://www.financialsamurai.com/net-worth-goal-before-having-children-how-about-1-million/
https://www.financialsamurai.com/living-a-middle-class-lifestyle-on-300000-year-expensive-city/
A couple needs 300k / yr income to raise one child. At the baby stage. Wait when the child begins to demand more.
And one has to be a millionaire before having a child in order to keep financial sanity.
It is quite a challenge to have a child which is most FatFire people don’t do that till they are in their later stages of life.
Nuland tells Niger you can do whatever you want but we beg you do not talk to Wager. LMAO.
Beg and grovel, you female canine.
“Nuland” is Victoria Nuland, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs since 2021.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/07/politics/niger-military-junta-nuland-meeting/index.html
(BYOBLU)
“VICTORIA NULAND MEETS WITH REBELS IN NIGER, MARIA ZAKHAROVA: “IT’S NOT LIKE UKRAINE”
“Victoria Nuland thought it would work in Niger like it did in Ukraine: that all you had to do was bring a cellophane bag full of sandwiches and take everyone for fools. But a banana regime like the one in Kiev cannot be found everywhere.”
https://www.byoblu.com/2023/08/08/victoria-nuland-incontra-i-ribelli-in-niger-maria-zakharova-non-e-come-in-ucraina/
Zakharova is an absolute gem.
Polite, somewhat demure, quite attractive without playing on it, then just slices adversaries to pieces when she speaks.
Medvedev is a hoot too. He’s taken the full attack dog role as a counterpoint to Putin’s considered diplomacy.
ya but can she do this? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/49866
When Francois Arouet was a young lad, he had a squabble with a member of the Rohan family.
For those who don’t know France, The Rohans are the most illustrious family of France, even more illustrious than the Bourbons. The Rohans were there since 1100
Arouet told the young Rohan that the guy would be the last of his family, while Arouet will be the first of the Arouet family.
But, as everyone knows now, Arouet, later called Voltaire, left no descendants so his family perished with him, while the Rohans are still going strong.
===
In 1988, a film called Nuovo Cinema Paradiso was shown in Italy.
Toto, an internationally renowned director, reunites Elena, a woman he loved at a young age. Elena belonged to the upper class, while Toto was from a lower class. After Elena’s father takes her away to marry a man of her class, Alfredo, Toto’s mentor , tells Toto to move to Rome to pursue a career.
Fast forward 30 years, Toto has become an internationally famous director but he was never able to have a lasting relationship with anyone. At in his 50s and with no family, he returns to his hometown to attend the funeral of Alfredo.
At there he meets Elena’s daughter , who introduces her mother to Toto, not knowing their past. After a night’s fling, Elena tells this story:
Elena had broken up with the man she was going to marry, to return to Toto. Alfredo refuses to tell where Toto went so Elena gives Alfredo a note, which Alfredo hides.
She tells Toto that it was better they didn’t end up together since Toto became a successful person, but then the real story of the movie comes out.
She now tells Toto to get lost, because Toto is NOT of her class and they don’t belong together, and his presence will be an embarrassment for her (presumably upper class although her husband’s identity is not revealed) children ‘s future.
In other words, no matter whether he is an internationally successful director or not, he is still a piece of shit in her circle of old , upper class family, and he DOES NOT belong to her class.
Toto finds the note, watches the demolition of the theater where Aflredo had shown Toto all these movies, returns to Rome and weeps bitterly.
His entire life was a waste of time. He was merely a tool by Alfredo to accomplish A’s director dreams, and although he became successful, he is still a piece of shit in front of the upper class which is the only class which matters, and Alfredo destroyed any chance Toto had to be happy. It is presumed that he kills himself after this sequence, although the movie stops before that.
Not surprisingly the movie didn’t do well.
The people who financed his film cut the entire reunion sequence with Elena, editing the movie to be mostly about Alfredo and Toto only, and renamed the movie Cinema Paradiso. That became a hit, and it is the version most people remember.
The entire theme of the movie (and what the director intended) was completely changed.
Instead of showing the harsh reality that no matter how successful you become you are just a piece of shit in front of the people who do matter, it showed you could be successful if you strive on it. The director, adding some parts which were cut before, later relased the old version renamed the Director’s Cut, but it is not that popular since people don’t want to be reminded that it is useless to strive for the better.
But the cold reality is whatever Toto did will pass in time, as well as Toto, while Elena’s illustrious lines will continue to live in luxury.
Landed Gentry Uber Alles.
To add:
Elena was young and naive so at that time she thought love would conquer it all.
However, by the time she met Toto again, she was older, wiser, and much more experienced. She had learned class was eternal and if she followed her old fling that would ruin the marriage chances of her children, who presumably would marry high.
There was an Italian count (earl) named Piero Manzoni, best known for exhibiting his shit in a can. His full name was Conti Piero Meroni Manzoni di Chiosca e Poggiolo.
He died at the age of 30 in 1963, shortly after this antic, of a heart attack, presumably during a sexual encounter (exact circumstance was not explained – the truly chic stays that way).
His niece (born way after he died) Pippa Baca got herself killed hitchhiking in Turkey in 2008.
However, that was far from the end of the family. After she died her older sister said her mother was the oldest of 5 siblings, meaning there were 3 other members of the family who keep quiet and maintain their legacy, the two artists being regarded somewhat as embarrassments in the earl’s family.
Kulm, since you track the powerful, what/who are the centers in the world today?
That is what guillotines were invented for. Although a cynical guy would say that was the first color revolution.
Those who are successful have certain traits in common; you can figure this one out. Elena made a good choice which as some would say was written in the stars.
Dennis L.
Well, for the first time, you are agreeing with me. I always emphasized family triumphs it all, and you tried to argue that talents were more important.
In the end ancient family wins all.
Ah, talent comes from the family, that is not fair, but it is.
Dennis L.
Also, the stars only seem to shine on the side of the upper class, the aristocrats and the chosen.
That is what it is . The rest can just get lost.
Nice of you to shine their boots
It is a mixed picture for the landowners around here. The large landowners of Ireland are almost entirely gone; there are no comprehensive data on England but one survey in 1982 suggests that 1/3 of landowners were gone since 1880 and nearly all were reduced; some still lived in parts of the house but without land. Landowners now make up only about 10% of the richest 500 in Britain.
https://books.openedition.org/editionsmsh/9996?lang=en
…. What has happened to these 583 aristocrats since 1880? The 132 aristocrats whose estates were chiefly in Ireland have been virtually eliminated by the peculiarities of the Irish question. These included state-aided purchase of their holdings by tenants on terms which, in the prevailing political and social circumstances, were too good for the landowners to refuse. Thus the Irish disappear from the story.
For the rest they have been through hard times. All the odds, financial, fiscal, agricultural, political, demographic, ideological, have been stacked against them and their way of life as a leisured class almost continuously for more than a hundred years. Many have sunk without trace, either forced to sell up completely by debts and taxes and to disappear into the anonymity of the middle classes, or literally extinguished by the failure of heirs. Some tried to make a fresh start in the colonies between the wars, aiming to transplant their way of life into low-cost, lowtax economies with abundant and cheap servants, only to be confronted by the new perils of decolonization after 1945. All have parted with at least some of their land; there is only one major landowner whose estates were considerably larger in the 1980s than they had been a hundred years earlier.
…. The most systematic and reliable survey is that carried out by a historical geographer, Fleather Clemenson, in 1980, by a questionnaire sent to a sample of the descendants of rather over one third of the 1880 landowners (Clemenson 1982). This, relating to England only, showed that a quarter of the original landed aristocrats still owned estates of more than 10,000 acres in 1980, and a further one third had estates of between 3,000 and 10,000 acres. A handful of the original group, 9 out of 124, were in the much reduced circumstances of being left with estates of less than 3,000 acres but above 1,000; adding these in, two-thirds of the landed aristocrats of 1880 had direct descendants a hundred years later who were considerable, and in most cases substantial, landowners sitting on the same lands as their forebears. Or, to put it the other way round, no more than one third of the aristocratic families of 1880 seem to have become completely detached from the land. This conclusion is as robust as it is surprising, but unfortunately the composition of the sample remains anonymous so that it is not possible to identify who has survived and who has gone under.
…. Even the gross total of houses demolished or alienated, around 1,250, represents barely one quarter of the opening stock of country houses as it stood in 1880. If that were to be reduced to a figure of the net losses of country residences of old-established landed families it would amount to less than one-fifth, probably substantially less, of the initial stock, a level of disappearance and loss consistent with the evidence of changes in the ownership and size of landed estates in the same period. Moreover, these net losses were overwhelmingly concentrated among the families of the landed gentry and those who had never owned more than middle-ranking estates, and very few came from the ranks of the landed aristocracy.
*
Continental ‘landowners’ were anyway petty compared to the British and they faired badly but their fate is hardly relevant.
https://www.nytimes.com/1990/11/04/books/never-has-so-few-owned-so-much.html
…. This change affected the Continental aristocracy just as badly, and it is one of the many virtues of “The Decline and Fall of the British Aristocracy” that Mr. Cannadine puts the whole process in its European context. In fact the British aristocrats, being far richer than their Continental counterparts, were less badly placed to survive than the French, German and Italian nobility with their endless subdivision of estates and titles. Only the Magyar grandees in Hungary did better — till 1945. Most successful of all were the Spanish, thanks to Franco. The unique British system of entail and primogeniture was not always popular with younger sons surveying the wealth of their eldest brothers. Hence the younger sons’ grace: “For what we ought to have received, may the Lord make them truly thankful.” But the system did preserve estates as long as there were estates to preserve.
“He says that he is baron von somewhere or other.”
“Is he indeed, well he might find a room at the village inn.”
England, Wales and Scotland, and probably the Protestant of Northern Ireland show a different picture
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/apr/17/who-owns-england-thousand-secret-landowners-author
MIrror,
I did not read your entire post, but land does not return much cash on equity which is a problem. Kul may be on to something in that given time land does not seem to lose much so a bit accumulated here and a bit there if left as one parcel will grow in income over the years; a family makes this work and helps make one’s place in the fabric of the universe.
As such those who inherit owe a debt of gratitude to their ancestors which is not to be taken lightly.
I own land, it is a privilege and it does support my house, that is a tough thing to do in one generation.
Dennis L.
I hope Elena led a bitter life. She deserved it. True love outshines everything else.
Actually it was Alfredo who lied to her and made her marry someone of her class.
Nuovo Cinema Paradiso was a fairly big hit in Japan, and one of my favorite movies. I recall I saw the cut version at the movies, and a few years later the full version on video. And I admit that I didn’t pick up on the class aspect at the time. Anyway, it is an entertaining nostalgic romp through rural Italy before the age of TV, and beautifully produced too.
Women are adepts of hypergamy (marrying up), while men are mere amateurs. Or it could be argued, the rich will more readily let a poorer woman into the family than they will let in a poorer man. And even blue bloods need some fresh blood occasionally. But thy are rather particular about preserving those delicate and fragile aristocratic y-chromosomes.
What is an economic recession?
It is the retreat of the human species.
Scare people into staying at home and you will get an economic recession. Fewer resources are used.
but a recession like that is self perpetuating
in the end everything ceases to function, and no one makes/does anything–you cant just call a halt at some kind of preset point
when that happens those who ”started it” have no wealth base either.
We can work faster to keep the inflated human world operating, untill we collapse, or we can slow down to stop the growth and retreat as much as possible in order to contract the population.
The only solution is to contract the population, despite the horrible consequences of the ageing of the population.
Population is going to decline due to demographic ageing. It is a problem everywhere except the crappy countries in Africa and Middle East. Demographic ageing is likely to hasten collapse because it shrinks workforce and consumer base simultaneously, whilst also also burdening the ones that remain with an army of unproductive old folk. This how China is going to collapse.
Africa and Middle East are no exception.
Norman,
I think it is through put of energy with essentials produced. A guess is much consumerism is to keep economies of scale in primary industries.
AI will change that as will manufacturing just in time. But, the capital labor ratio goes to capital and capital and energy to use it must be cheap. Fusion, done in space.
Dennis L.
With shortages, I am afraid we move away from economies of scale. I saw this article in the WSJ yesterday:
Drug Shortages Are a Boon to One Industry: Compounding Pharmacies
Hospitals increasingly rely on a sector that can start making drugs without FDA approval—and investment is pouring in
Compounding groups come in and produce a limited quantity of drugs for those willing to pay for them. They can move quickly–within 6 months have the product out to clients.
AI can only produce more, quickly using a greater volume of resources
AI will deplete the resource base, it cannot increase it,
and we havent figured out fusion on earth yet
Laughing quietly while on break from working around home.
Dennis L.
Hahaha yes… a slight reduction in the rate of pillage…
We do not like it .. in fact we riot.
Dummmmbest species EVER.
More on “climate change”
Essentially water vapor spewed high into the atmosphere from this volcanic eruption may be associated with elevated global temps for @ 3 years, in contrast to volcanic ash which cools the earth.
Climate change, like economics and law, is complete BS in short term analysis in the context of major climate changes recorded throughout earth’s history. (Ice core samples, Greenland abandoned Viking settlements, glacier etchings, etc.The mechanics and physics of global warming/cooling may be understood, just like fundamental laws of economics like “supply and demand” , or laws or the constitution where the statutes are clearly written but ignored or gerrymandered to the point that they are meaningless.
You can spin climate, economics, and law anyway you want, and while we’re at it, COVID, “Our Democracy” , the power of “diversity”, and the salvation of green energy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/blackmon/p/tuesdays-energy-absurdity-hunga-tonga?r=16win7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
According to the article,
“According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Hunga Tonga-Hunga’s eruption spewed 146 trillion grams of water vapor, one of the most efficient alleged greenhouse gases, into the upper atmosphere as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, an event that JPL scientists say “could end up temporarily warming the earth’s surface.”
Norman? Norman!?
Anybody home?
Even the BBC noticed this one.
norm is at the clinic getting … a booster shot haha
“The biggest explosion caught on camera, perhaps ever!”
There’s your climate criminal, Norman!
Tim
I was just pondering a previous comment of yours on this thread—when I got to the word ‘weather’ used in a discuss about ‘climate’
sorry me old mate, you just negated any further exchange on the subject
weather is not climate
climate is not weather
averages are not where your or I are sitting right now
Volcanoes can cause temporaru abberations to weather patterns–they always have, Check 1816, the year without a summer.
Do brush up on the subject,
I don’t think we know what is causing the strange rise in ocean temperatures this year, unless it is something like excess water vapor from a volcano eruption. Such eruptions may cause widespread changes in weather–whether or not we call this climate change is optional.
As I keep saying, I don’t think that there is anything humans can do to stop climate change. All systems on earth go through cycles, some with very large changes. Nothing is permanent. Leaders like to pretend that we humans can change things. But it is hard to see that this is true.
volcanoes are not big enough to raise ocean temperature
undersea vulcanism is going on all the time, at different rates in different places
we were told over many years that the oceans were acting as a heat sink for the atmosphere, they might just have reached a limit
TheEthicalSkeptic.com may have the answer that no one really wants to hear. Paper updated Aug. 4
The Climate Change Alternative We Ignore (to Our Peril)
“We’ve never seen anything like it,” said Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a new study examining the amount of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth’s surface.
In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.
Sounds like that would have major repercussions. I expect the water vapor effects would be counteracted by other things the volcano released.
In the case of Pinatubo, the eruption injected a large amount of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and other gases into the stratosphere. Te SO2 reacted with water vapor to form sulfate aerosols, which increased the stratospheric aerosol loading. The presence of these aerosols led to a net decrease in stratospheric water vapor content.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo resulted in a temporary cooling effect on the global average temperature. The sulfate aerosols injected into the stratosphere reflected incoming solar radiation back to space, reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. This led to a decrease in surface temperatures in the years following the eruption.
Perhaps Hunga Tonga will do the same. only time and precise observation and analysis will tell.
But for people like Norman, Anthropogenic Cl*m*te Ch*nge (ACC) will always be to blame any changes, or lack of changes, in the weather. Just as Eddy sees Elders orchestrating all kinds of events behind the scene, Norman see ACC manipulating the weather. It’s Norman’s Emmanuel Goldstein, his lizard people con-s-piracy theory, his cult doctrine, the lens through which which he views his world.
volcanoes are not big enough to raise ocean temperature
Undersea volcanoes release a significant amount of energy into the ocean through volcanic activity, so obviously they raise ocean temperature. If there were no undersea volcanoes, the ocean would be cooler.
But while undersea volcanic activity can contribute to short-term variability and localized effects, it is not considered a major driver of long-term changes in ocean temperature or global climate. Other factors are much larger, specifically the amount of insolation absorbed by the oceans and the amount of heat transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere.
undersea vulcanism is going on all the time, at different rates in different places
And? What does this tell us? If the rate is higher now than it used to be, that would warm the oceans a tad.
we were told over many years that the oceans were acting as a heat sink for the atmosphere, they might just have reached a limit
And you believe everything you’re told? By LyingLiarsWhoLieForALiving?
First, when Dinosaurs ruled the Earth, the oceans were much much warmer than they are these days.
During the warmest part of the Cretaceous Period, which spanned from approximately 145 to 66 million years ago, estimates suggest that the average global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were around 10 to 15 degrees Celsius (18 to 27 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the present-day temperatures.
So it is doubtful that the oceans have reached a limit as a heat sink. If they were a few degrees cooler most of the oceans would be frozen over most of the time.
Second, the oceans heat the atmosphere and not the other way around. Really, it seems to me you have be lied to and you’ve lapped it up.
You know that phenomenon whereby warm air blowing across a cool ocean causes an oceanic whirlpool to form and move north or south from the equatorial regions to towards the poles?
No?
I’m not surprised, because we all know this doesn’t happen. All that happens is the air cools a lot and the ocean warms by an insignificant and unmeasurably small amount.
Why?
It’s a heat capacity thing. The oceans hold on the order of a thousand times as much heat as the atmosphere does. For the same reason, it is very hard to warm a bathtub when the only heat source is the air in the bathroom.
However, we can say that the atmosphere plays a crucial role in modulating the amount of solar radiation that reaches the ocean surface, thereby influencing the ocean’s warming or cooling. Clouds can block the sun. They can also reflect back heat radiated by the oceans that would otherwise escape into space. That sort of thing.
anyone putting climate and weather into the same sphere of discussion negates their own credibility on the subject tim.
Brush, brush, brush,
Scrub, scrub scrub,
Polish, polish, polish,
Rub, rub, rub
Climate is all about averages.
Climate is defined as average weather over time. Weather causes climate.
Climate doesn’t cause weather.
The climate of a place is a brief description of the average weather that place is likely to experience over time.
Let’s not get our causality backwards.
That’s the Janet and John bit.
For the older kids, climate can be broadly defined as the average weather conditions observed over a long period of time, typically spanning several decades or more.
Weather refers to the state of the atmosphere at a particular time and place, encompassing various atmospheric conditions such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind patterns, cloud cover, and precipitation.
Climate> refers to the long-term patterns and characteristics of weather conditions observed over an extended period in a particular region or across the globe.
Climate is a statistical description of weather, encompassing averages, variations, and trends of various atmospheric variables, such as temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, and more. It represents the broader context within which weather events occur.
For those who prefer financial analogies, consider this:
Weather is like wealth. You have a certain level of wealth in the present, which could range from being fabulously well-to-do to having diddly-squat.
Climate, being average weather over a period of time, is like average wealth over a period of time. A person could have been born rich and remained rich throughout their life, born poor and remained poor all their life, Or they could have worked their way up from nothing to a state of extreme poverty (Spike Milligan!) or to a state of extreme wealth (rags to riches).
We don’t have words (at least not snappy ones that I can think of) to describe people’s level of wealth over long periods. When we call somebody “rich”, “poor” or “comfortably off” or “struggling financially”, we describe their state at given point in time. Their average wealth over the past fifty years is of negligible interest in comparison with their current wealth, because the latter exists while the former doesn’t.
If you don’t understand this, go to your bank and try to obtain a mortgage or a car loan or an overdraft based on your average wealth over the past fifty years—your health climate, so to speak, and see how far that gets you. Very likely, your bank will only be interested in your current wealth, or health weather.
in a previous comment you were roasting the old chestnut that 150 m years ago temperatures were much higher that they are now
that old one is just so tiresome
150m years ago the planet itself was a different environment
atmospheric gases were in different proprtion, evebn dragonflies we 3ft long.
flora an fauna were sustained by different means,
we done have 150m years in which to adapt tp a different environment
That response was evasive and incoherent, Norman. As we’ve all come to expect from you.
As I see it, when you make comments, I address the points you make in them, quoting your own words when required. But when I make comments, you respond with irrelevancies, evasions, non sequiturs, or anything but a straight answer.
You can’t learn very much from what I write not because it is lacking in substance, or erroneous or because you are incapable of absorbing it, but because you refuse to try to understand it or even to take it seriously. Conversely, I can’t learn very much from you because you have nothing to teach and nothing of substance to convey.
But it is my fond hope that perhaps other people can learn something from from our exchanges, or at the very least least get a bit of entertainment out of reading them.
When you make glaring statements with nonchalant confidence that have no factual basis, I feel obliged to set the record straight, in the general interest of stemming the flow of misinformation that can corrupt the intellectual progress of the youth.
One such glaring statement with no factual basis is your contention that dragonflies 3 feet long lived 150 million years ago.
As far as is currently known, dragonflies with a wingspan of 3 feet did not exist in any known historical or fossil records. The largest known species of dragonflies, both extinct and extant, have wingspans ranging from about 19 to 30 centimeters (7.5 to 12 inches), which is no more than a third of the length you contend they were.
During certain periods, such as the Carboniferous period around 350 million years ago, the Earth experienced higher atmospheric oxygen levels, which, coupled with other environmental factors, may have supported the growth of larger insects. However, no evidence suggests the existence of dragonflies with a wingspan of more than 1 foot even during those ancient times.
There was a genus of flying insects named Meganeura that lived during the late Carboniferous period, approximately 300 million years ago. They looked like dragonflies in the same way humans look like monkeys, and they had wingspans that reached up to 710 millimeters (about 28 inches), making them one of the largest known flying insects.
Meganeura is often classified as a member of the order Meganisoptera, which is closely related to the modern-day dragonflies (order Odonata). While Meganeura shares some similarities with dragonflies, it is not considered a true dragonfly. It belongs to a separate lineage of ancient insects that existed during the Paleozoic era.
But not even the largest known Meganeura reached 3 feet, and they didn’t live 150 million years ago. Meganeura and other related giant insects are generally considered to have disappeared by the end of the Permian period, which concluded around 252 million years ago.
so i was out on my dragonfly sizes
I think we can set that against the certainties of ”no moon landings”—and the WTC hoax
nuff said
You know those books .. 10 Traits/Habits of the Highly Successful blah blah …
I should write a book — The 10 Traits/Habits of the Very Stooopid. How to ensure you will remain a MORE-ON forever.
This occurred to me after reading responses (or lack of) to posts on SS and OFW … involving logic and facts…
Gail wrote folks are cutting back on meat products…the economy is not doing well
These workers that reside in rural communities don’t have many employment opportunities now their jos are gone…
CHICAGO, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Tyson Foods (TSN.N) is shutting four more chicken plants – in Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri – to cut costs, a blow to small communities in the U.S. heartland that depend on the meatpacker for nearly 3,000 jobs.
The company, which reaped big profits as meat prices soared during the COVID-19 pandemic, is now adjusting to a decline and to slowing demand for some products. Tyson closed two other chicken plants, in Arkansas and Virginia, with almost 1,700 employees this year, and has also laid off corporate employees.
People in small towns have had trouble with industry leaving for a long time.
If internet access is good enough, I suppose some people could work from home for businesses headquartered in cities, or even around the world. The problem is not having the skills needed and, even with skills, not having a way to get lined up with the businesses needing these skills.
A lot of people with advanced degrees moved out of rural areas long ago.
meat is an energy-dense product–no different to oil or buildings.
Meat processing plants grew when energy was cheap and we had a surplus of it.
Just as oil and housing did.
if people can no longer afford it, the demand will fall away
Raising livestock is a way of producing food from land that is not suitable for arable cultivation. Grass fed beef is not necessarily a waste of energy, because human beings cannot eat the grass. It is when cattle are fed cereal crops that meat production is wasteful of energy.
i agree
but grass fed cattle are not energy dense enough, by numbers–
cereal fed beef delivers high quantity
Right! There has been a huge rise in meat consumption in the past century. If people cannot afford meat, they will eat relatively more grains and vegetables. It takes a lot of grain to make one pound of meat. In calories, I believe it takes something like ten times as many grain calories to make the corresponding calories of beef. The ratio is lower for some other foods, such as milk.
Our bodies are set up to use an energy density of food similar to what we would get from nature. Our nearest relatives, the chimps, eat vegetable products with a few insects thrown in. We seem to have adapted to a diet that includes vegetable products and some animal products (in some cultures, milk and cheese-related, rather than meat). Cooking is helpful to break down cell walls and get rid of pathogens. The overall energy density of the food mix cannot be too high. Eating a lot of fried, sweet foods creates problems because of the high energy density and lack of nutrients.
it has always been my contention that our primitive forbears must have hung up meat in caves out of the way of scavenging dogs.
A week or two in a wood-smoky cave and meat tastes really good, and lasts longer, thus aiding survival.
who would want raw meat when you can have smoked venison?
New book recommendation, it is currently on backorder, Mark Andreessen again .
“When Reason Goes on Holiday.” ;
Dennis L.
I was confused about what you are talking about. A reddit entry says:
https://www.reddit.com/r/lexfridman/comments/14o0lsc/when_reason_goes_on_holiday_review/?rdt=39063
This book was published on November 15, 2016. The publisher’s write-up says:
Perhaps this is related to the issue of why college professors in general tend to be extremely liberal in their philosophy. They think/hope that all students can learn from their classes.
If universities are to grow, they need to be more and more generous in who they accept. They also need to keep their pass ratios high.
Que The Tinder Trap.
From the WSJ:
Chinese Exports Fall at Steepest Pace Since February 2020
Slide in outbound shipments reflects fraying trade ties with the Western world, even as exports to Russia boom
Hypothesis:
Economy of scale depends on demand from consumerism. Due to resource limitations, the scale of economy for power plants is less, less need for consumer goods.
Consumerism, read the US, has been the flywheel of the economy, less of a flywheel available from US, we are spent literally and figuratively.
We will get through it, tough to see tomorrow however.
Dennis L.
Coal is becoming expensive around the world, including in China, because of depletion and high demand. A China coal price index can be found at this link:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
The price historically has been averaging under $100 per ton. In 2016 and 2020 the price briefly dropped to $50/ton. In 2022, the index price hit $450 ton. Now, the price is down to $141/ton. This is still high by historical standards. At this price, it is hard for China to make goods economically for export, or even for local use.
Adding to the high price of coal is the fact that transport costs tend to be a big share of delivered coal costs. The coal produced close to population centers is now badly depleted, in China (and in most parts of the world). I remember reading articles a year or two ago about coal needing to be shipped long distances, by truck, across mountainous areas, because of depletion. I am fairly sure that transport costs are in addition to the index price of coal in China.
I think the drop in exports have a lot to do with coal depletion, unfortunately.
I was noticing that Russia is now a major producer of coal (besides being a major producer of oil, and processing a huge amount of uranium).
According to the Statistical Review of World Energy 2023, the production of coal in exajoules was as follows:
1. China 92.22
2. India 15.02
3. Indonesia 13.95
4. United States 12.07
5. Australia 11.46
6. Russia 9.35
7. South Africa 5.35
Why doesn’t Greta go to China to protest this travesty?
Same reason Leo builds a sea level concrete eco resort
hahahahaha (green groopies won’t be laughing … they dont get it)
This diagram explains a lot:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e6f0c37-1891-4073-a9ab-b16386a9cc84_616x1101.png
I think that this chart shows how, in a self-organizing economy, inadequate resources tend to play out in human interactions in our economy as it is structured today.
(Discovered by Ravi)
https://indi.ca/why-renewables-wont-end-environmental-destruction/
Today we think we can avert our fate by making the beasts’ energy source ‘renewable’, which just completely ignores where the monsters came from. They started from cloth sails and sun-kissed opium! Changing back to renewables doesn’t actually change the course we’re on. Locomotion is not destination.
Today we think we can switch from ripping coal and oil out of the Earth and just rip out lithium and copper instead. But ‘renewable’ rape does not change the fundamental raping going on. An electric bulldozer rips up the earth as much as a diesel one.
Renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar PV, are horrendous resource hogs. The amount of steel, copper, concrete and rare earth’s needed to scale these things up to replace a large fraction of bulk energy from fossil fuels really boggles the mind.
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the-environment/energy-return-on-investment.aspx
This is before we get into the resource needs for back up, storage and converting the energy into non-electrical forms like liquid fuel and industrial heat. The ultimate unsolvable problem with intermittent renewables is low power density.
Really, the only non-fossil energy source that we have that is both energy dense and scalable is fission. Environmentalists have spent decades tying society in loops trying to force the adoption of renewable energy and push fission out of the solution space by inflating its costs and build times. But no amount of ideology can circumvent the laws of physics.
Humans need a controllable, high power density energy source to replace fossil fuels. It isn’t going to be the sun or wind, no matter how much certain people want it to be. The sooner humanity bites that particular bullet and starts developing nuclear energy in ernest, the better off we will all be.
Somehow, the low power density energy sources that we get from non-fossil energy sources need to be made into energy-dense liquid fuels that can be stored cheaply and can be transported inexpensively.
We don’t have a way of doing this, and quite likely never will. The whole process simply takes too much resources of all kinds. It is not just energy resources that are in short supply; it is all kinds of other resources that must be mined elsewhere and shipped around the world. All of this mining is damaging to the world’s ecosystems, also. EROEI analyses have never been set up to show what the energy cost would be of an overall system that might somewhat work.
“We don’t have a way of doing this, and quite likely never will. ”
Disagree: one of your readers had the solution, a solar collector made of foil in space, but don’t beam it down at earth. Earth is made for the sun, it rotates, it orbits and thus manages heat gain.
Melt the stuff on the moon with heat from the sun, pollute at will, build a space elevator on the moon(it is not such a deep gravity well) and move the finished product up and the rocks down, other than rolling friction, close to energy free, it is inertial.
Testable hypothesis: Starship will work and work economically. If it works, that is science, idea was tested, if it does not that is science but humans are in trouble as this site has so ably demonstrated.
Film at eleven,
Dennis L.
It is the cost of the overall system that gets to be a problem. Also, how quickly it pays back.
I have shown previously that ballooning government debt gets to be a big problem. If a huge resource like this is built, it must pay back government debt both quickly and generously. If interest rates are at 5%, it needs to cover this interest rate, plus the payback quickly enough that the total does not exponentially balloon. It must also provide profits to the developers and living wages for the workers. These are huge hurdles.
Guess:
Government debt used in part to cover defense costs which in turn launch satellites which in turn use Space X rockets. A very inefficient way to fund Starship, but politics is messy.
Mine the solar system, all debts covered with interest – economics must be freed from earth.
TINA
Dennis L.
Hahaha. That’s hilarious. Are you a comedy writer?
Are keith and dennis brothers?
This is why you should never support anyone who thinks democracy would be a good thing
“The sooner humanity bites that particular bullet and starts developing nuclear energy in ernest, the better off we will all be.”
Strongly disagree. Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fukashima and probably Windscale. It doesn’t’ happen often, but when it does the damage is huge and long lasting.
Starship is real and hopefully will work; we will know this year. It is a hypothesis which will be tested, in essence it is science.
Move all the pollution to the moon, solar energy will work in space, the moon will work.
Digging holes deeper and deeper to recover minerals with densities greater than surrounding rock which is agitated by plate tectonics requires more and more energy. The “stuff” is overhead, energy is over head, pollution is not an issue.
LTG is an earth model with no predictive value beyond the immediate present.
We will be fine, we are not alone, we discover the fabric of the universe or it is shown to us as needed. It has worked to date and those who have had their hand on the pulse of the universe have become incredibly wealthy.
Denis L.
The damage due to Three Mile Island and Windscale were zero, apart from the loss of the plants themselves. There was a lot of panick around TMI, but it was much ado about nothing. Chernobyl and Fukushima did contaminate some land. But the human health consequences of both of these accidents were equivelent to about 1 day of air pollution on a global scale.
Your chances of dying due to a nuclear accident are somewhere between in 1 in 100 million and 1 in 1 billion per year. Compared to other risks we each face, it is lost in the noise. The risk of nuclear accidents is a non-issue in the real world. But the risk of dying due to energy shortages is considerable for all of us in the years to come.
I have already commented on space manufacturing. It could make a meaningful contribution to Earth’s energy supply through solar power satellites. But the economics of this idea are not yet demonstrated. The capital investment costs of establishing factories in space and mining on the moon, will be heavy. The resources needed to do this would stretch the capabilities of any industrial nation. And even this assumes that Musk’s new rocket is as cheap as he promises.
The idea of making bulk products in space and shipping them down to Earth is dubious to say the least. Unless those products have a high value per unit weight, it is unlikely to be profitable. Dropping things down Earth’s gravity well will not be cheap. You need a guidance system to ensure they land where you want. A robust heat shield. Ships to collect the packages from the ocean. And you would need to lift into space an entire factory to make those products in the first place.
From energy and capability perspective it is better to lift the humans to the manufactured goods. But whom am I to make sane cognitions in daydream fantasy 🙂
This author makes good points. I liked this statement:
“We’re literally going in circles, right down the drain, passing the past and thinking it the future.”
Being flip, somewhat sarcastic, disrespectful, please accept apology; being male who won’t quit.
Yes, we circle drains, but a few smart ones swim to the outside of the whirlpool, not against the current, with a bit of luck they are flung out. Haven’t checked the physics of this, probably depends on the radial velocity as well; never know when a bit of physics may come in handy when swimming around a drain.
Personal goal in life is to find the 20% and avoid at all costs the 80%; if one can minimize losses, one generally wins the game. In sports, offense scores points, defense wins games.
Enough for one day, have a great day everyone.
Dennis L.
That’s really profound Dennis… deep….
we physically cannot sustain this civilization on renewable energy alone, but an even bigger problem is if we could. As Dr. Tom Murphy says in his essential physics textbook, “if energy became essentially unlimited by some technology, I shudder to think what it would mean for the rest of the planet.”
A MORE-ON on SS the other day was explaining how ‘they’ have free energy solutions but ‘they’ refuse to allow them cuz ???
My response was – If there are free energy sources (there aren’t) and we deployed them … this would cause an epic disaster… think of what would happen to the other resources of the planet and how this would drive catastrophic population expansion…
If there is a free energy source they would be damned well right to keep that in the drawer – forever.
The MORE-ON did not respond to that
FE,
“if energy became essentially unlimited by some technology, I shudder to think what it would mean for the rest of the planet.”
If the energy is embedded in products not produced on earth, other than mass, exogenous energy is not an issue.
Given sufficient wealth, the rate of population grown declines on its own it would seem.
Our future is written in the stars and wealth is all around us, along with more energy that we can ever use. We need to put down the real and metaphorical shovel, stop digging stuff, refining stuff, and manufacturing stuff on our spaceship and move it all off planet. Sort of like offshoring.
Dennis L.
Hahaha… yes… f789ed… see the visual https://indi.ca/how-precisely-were-fucked/
A second coming of Lockdowns?
Biden says another pandemic will come and the US needs to start preparing for it
https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-second-pandemic-funding-us-preparing-2022-6?amp
The next pandemic ‘even deadlier’ than COVID is coming, warns WHO
https://nypost.com/2023/05/23/pandemic-even-deadlier-than-covid-is-coming-warns-who/amp/
As economic conditions in the US, UK, and EU worsen and as NATO influence wanes, our oligarchs will increasingly restrict freedom of speech and freedom of movement.
In Biden’s case, it is partly an excuse to borrow more money to fund the pharmaceutical industry. From the article:
Think … crazy monkey sounds
https://geoffpain.substack.com/p/autoimmune-diseases-caused-by-endotoxin
The idea of an “untouched nature”, that in its abundance nurtures humans of a naive, childlike state, be it Hunter Gatherers, be it early farmers, is not what research in biology and archeology show for the past. The development of the European landscape has been shaped since many thousand years by the influence of humans. There is a self-organising system, establishing between plants, microbes, soil, higher animals (of which man is one) and climate.
There are two ways of adaptation to these ever changing self-organising systems: either by natural selection or by intelligence. For example people had to realize, that the area of grasslands feeding large huntable bovines comes to an end and man has to adapt to live in the upcoming forests. Humans were able to do adapt and developed smaller hunting gear and new hunting methods adaped to rabbits and deer replacing mammuts. Other predators were not able to adapt and became extinct.
The upcoming forests mitigated extreme weather incidents and thus allowed the growth of grains, a grass originating in warmer and more arid climates.
This process is misunderstood as “development” of which we are the most developed, instead of valuating it as “adaptation”.
The problem now is, that we are following one worldwide success strategy instead of competing approaches. People are expecting functional methods coming from “above” as they had experienced the amazing advantages coming with fossile fuels. They will be disappointed.
Hunter Gatherers, the wood societies, the Middle Ages all had a system they could teach to their kids and make them survive. We don’t have such a system next to fossile fuels. Our cities will be of no use in a world without fossiles, our buildings and infrastructure cannot be maintained, our seeds and breeds are optimized for industrial agriculture and lack resilience. Praying to Gore, Gates and Greater will not help. The more intelligent of our offspring spend their time with programming languages, literature and maths and have no clue of anchient technologies, that are easily and ubiquous available.
Were the estimated world population before the fossile era around 500 million – having all this knowledge and these systems, the future world population must fall UNDER 500 mio. lacking these systems.
When in the past systems or civilisations failed, there have been competing systems that secured survival of humans in other groups. Often the survivors could migrate into these families.
Our fossile culture is a worldwide system, alternative approaches are limited to a few individuals with rebellious lifestyles, the Amish people and some left Hunter Gatherer groups.
The upcoming “reign of the beast” or what it will be, will eliminate even more alternative approaches.
If we want to maximize the amount of people that can survive a larger crash we have to develop competing alternative and regional strategies now.
In pre-fossile times, carrying capacity could provide 500 mio. There may be ways how even more than 500 mio. could be fed, how to “maximize carrying capacity”. But these methods will not come from alone. In times of hunger there is no possibility to test several methods how to optimize output in organic farming.
These issues are obvious, nothing new and well understood. It seems to me a complete failure of human reasoning, that we are not able to draw consequences.
Extinction by stupidity.
With my own handful of acres in the middle of nowhere, and formerly a resident of the Flatiron district, I stand agog at how diligent our ancestors had to be to keep a woodlot from turning into a fire hazard. The human sized distances and tools in order to work with Nature boggle.
And none of this is cognitively difficult, it is astonishing to discover how much intelligence we offloaded to an ICE.
https://www.claycord.com/2023/08/04/hundreds-of-happy-goats-clearing-the-hills-near-martinez/?fbclid=IwAR04RBXg1sjrcx9kZidqhQzkQzw5v63sdEe8Q-airNOVhO4XkBRd4e8j6lg
The author is from Sri Lanka and also lives in the USA . Writes like Mr B . On the highways and the car economy ( auto nomy ) in the USA ,
https://indi.ca/how-highways-lead-us-to-hell/
https://indi.ca/the-body-horror-of-the-highway/
This is good. Thx
From the first link:
Also:
Of course, our real problem is that we don’t have the resources to continue to maintain roads (or much of anything else), as we head downward after peak fossil fuels (which we are pretty much at). We start facing tough choices when there isn’t enough to go around. The electric grid is something else we would like to maintain (and greatly expand). The infrastructure and equipment related to farming are certainly needed. And we need fuel for tractors.
From the second article:
Also
Cruising the American highway is the act of destroying the place you’re in to get somewhere else. Every highway is a rape of the land and the sack of the human spirit.
So this is what Hoolio is thinking when I ask him why he doesnt drive (moneky sounds… NOW)
FE,
Disagree. The masters’ of the universe are very messy.
Heard a recent video, perhaps Lex Fridman where a guest claimed two black holes collided, total mass went from by say 100 to 6 solar masses, puff!. No explanation, and it is history, some 5-6 billion years ago.
We read the history of the universe, nothing to speak of is current.
Humans are very unique, the result of a great deal of effort and also immense destruction; my current meme is the earth’s core, took a few supernovas to get the right one.
Starship makes possible immense wealth without associated pollution and immense wealth leads to decreased population pressure which saves our spaceship along with a few whales, etc.
TINA
Dennis L.
heynorm … mike is our John Campbell 🙂
BTW
CDC Altered Minnesota Death Certificates that List a Covid Vaccine as a Cause of Death
https://brownstone.org/articles/cdc-altered-death-certificates/