Fossil Fuel Imports Are Already Constrained

For many years, there has been a theory that imports of oil would become a problem before there was an overall shortage of fossil fuels. In fact, when I look at the data, it seems to be clear that oil imports are already constrained.

Figure 1. Interregional trade of fossil fuels based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

As I look at the data, it appears to me that coal and natural gas imports are becoming constrained, as well. There was evidence of this constrained supply in the spiking prices for these fuels in Europe in late 2021 and early 2022, starting well before the Ukraine conflict began.

Oil, coal, and natural gas are different enough from each other that we should expect somewhat different patterns. Oil is inexpensive to transport. It is especially important for the production of food and for transportation. Prices tend to be worldwide prices.

Coal and natural gas are both more expensive to transport than oil. They tend to be used in industry, in the heating and cooling of buildings, and in electricity production. Their prices tend to be local prices, rather than the worldwide price we expect for oil. Prices for importers of these fuels can jump very high if there are shortages.

In this post, I first look at the trends in the overall supply of these fuels, since a big part of the import problem is fossil fuel supply not growing quickly enough to keep pace with world population growth. I also give more background how the three fossil fuels differ.

After this introductory material, I provide charts and some analysis of fossil fuel imports and exports by region, based on data from the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy. Theoretically, the total of regional imports should be very close to the total of regional exports. This analysis gives a little more insight into what is going wrong and where.

[1] On a worldwide basis, total supplies of both oil and coal seem to be constrained.

Figure 2. World consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

Figure 2 shows that world supplies of all three fossil fuels follow the same general pattern: They tend to rise in close to parallel lines, with oil supply on top, coal next, and natural gas providing the least supply.

The total supply of fossil fuels needs to be shared by the world’s population. It therefore makes sense to look at supply on a per capita basis.

Figure 3. World per capita consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas, based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

On Figure 3, the top line, oil supply per capita, is almost perfectly level, suggesting that having a greater supply of oil enables having a larger world population. This relationship makes sense because oil is used to a significant extent in growing today’s food, and shipping it to market. Oil products also make herbicides, insecticides, and drugs for animals that enable the growing supply of food needed to feed today’s population. Oil products are also helpful in road making, and in providing lubrication for machinery of all kinds.

We might conclude that oil supply is essential to the growth of human population. It is only by way of a huge change in the economy, such as the one that took place in 2020, that there is a big dip in oil usage. Even now, some of the changes are “sticking.” Some people are continuing to work from home. Business travel is still low. People are still not buying fancy clothing as much as before 2020. All these things help reduce fossil fuel usage, particularly oil usage.

Figure 3 also shows that on a per capita basis, coal supply has fallen by 9% since its peak in 2011. This fact, plus the fact that coal prices have been spiking around the world in recent years, leads me to believe that coal supply is already constrained, even apart from the export issue.

[2] The share of oil traded interregionally is more than double the share of coal or natural gas traded interregionally.

The reason why oil is disproportionately high in Figure 1 compared to Figure 2 is because a little over 40% of oil is shipped between regions. In comparison, only about 18% of coal production is traded with other regions, and about 17% of natural gas production is shipped interregionally. Oil is much easier (and cheaper) to transport between regions than either coal or natural gas. Shipping costs tend to escalate rapidly, the farther either natural gas or coal is shipped.

Natural gas has a second problem over and above the high cost of shipping: It requires storage (which may be high cost) if it is not used immediately. Storage is needed for both natural gas and coal because both fuels are often used for heat in winter, either by direct burning or by creating electricity that can be used to heat buildings. Storage for coal is close to free because it can be stored in piles outside.

Besides heat in winter, coal is also used to provide electricity for air conditioning in summer, so its demand curve has peaks in both summer and winter. Natural gas is much more of a winter-heat fuel in the US, so it has a large peak corresponding to winter usage (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Coal and natural gas consumption by month based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Storage for natural gas needs to be available in every area where users expect to use it for winter heat. The cost of this storage will be low if there are depleted natural gas caverns that can be used for storage. It is likely to be high if above ground storage is required. Natural gas importing areas often do not have suitable caverns for storage. The easy approach is to try to get by with a bare minimum of storage, and hope that imports can somehow make up the difference.

The big question for any fuel is, “Can consumers afford to pay a high enough price to cover all the costs involved in getting the fuel from endpoint to endpoint, at the time it is needed?

Citizens become very unhappy if the cost of winter heat becomes extremely expensive. They demand subsidies and rebates from the government, in order to keep costs down. This is a sign that prices are too high for the consumer.

Both coal and natural gas are also heavily used in manufacturing. Their prices vary greatly from location to location and from time to time. If coal or natural gas prices rise in a particular location, the cost of manufactured goods from that location will also tend to rise. These higher prices will particularly hurt a manufacturing country, such as Germany, because its manufactured goods will become less competitive in the world marketplace. GDP growth will be reduced, and the profitably of manufacturers will tend to fall.

Because of these issues, long-distance trade in both coal and natural gas tend to hit barriers that may be difficult to see simply by looking at the trend in world production.

[3] Natural gas exports may already be becoming constrained, even though the total amount extracted still seems to be rising.

A huge amount of investment is needed to make long-distance sale of natural gas possible. Such investment includes:

  • The cost of developing a natural gas field for export use, usually over many years.
  • Pipelines covering every inch traveled by the natural gas, other than any portion of the trip for which transfer as liquefied natural gas (LNG) is planned.
  • Special ships to transport the LNG.
  • Facilities to chill natural gas, so it can be shipped overseas as LNG.
  • Regasification plants, to make the natural gas ready to ship by pipeline after it has been transferred as LNG.
  • Storage facilities, so that sufficient natural gas is available for winter.

Not all of these investments are made by the same organizations. They all need to provide an adequate return. Even if “only” very long-distance pipelines are used, the cost can be high.

Pipelines work best when there is no conflict among countries. They can be blown up by another country that seeks to raise natural gas prices, or that wants to retaliate for some perceived misdeed. For this reason, most growth in natural gas exports/imports in recent years has been as LNG.

Organizations investing in high-cost infrastructure for extracting and shipping natural gas would like long-term contracts at high prices in order to cover their costs. Without a stable long-term supply contract, natural gas purchase prices can be extremely variable. Japan has tended to buy LNG under such long-term contracts, but many other countries have taken a wait-and-see attitude toward prices, hoping that “spot” prices will be lower. They don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term high-priced contract.

There are two different things that tend to go wrong:

  • Spot prices bounce up above even what the long-term contract price would have been, creating a huge high-price problem for consumers.
  • Spot prices, on average, turn out to be too low for natural gas exporters. As a result, they cut back on investment, so that the amount of future exports can be expected to fall.

I believe that there is a significant chance that natural gas exports are now reaching a situation where prices cannot please all users simultaneously. Not all investors can get an adequate return on the huge investments that they have made in advance. Some investments that should have been made will be omitted. For example, there might be enough natural gas storage for a warm winter, but not for a very cold winter in Europe.

A prime characteristic of a fossil fuel (or any resource) that is not economic to extract is that the industry has difficulty paying its workers an adequate wage. Recently, there has been news about a union strike against Chevron at an Australian natural gas extraction site used to provide gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export. This suggests that natural gas may already be hitting long-distance export limits. Prices can’t stay high enough for producers to pay their workers an adequate wage.

[4] Oil imports by area suggest that the rapidly growing manufacturing parts of the world are squeezing out the imports desired by high-wage, service-oriented countries.

Because oil is so important in international trade, I looked at the amounts two ways. The first is based on trade flows, as reported by the Energy Institute:

Figure 5. Oil imports by area based on the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

The second is based upon a comparison of reported production and consumption for the same year, using the assumption that if consumption is higher than production, the difference must be attributable to imported oil. The problem with this later approach is that it can easily be distorted by changes in inventory levels. There may also be difficulties with my approach of netting out flows in two different directions, especially if the flows are partly of crude oil and partly of “oil products” of various types.

Figure 6. Oil imports based on production and consumption data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute. Amounts adjusted to include “Refinery Gain,” as reported by the US Energy Information Administration.

In both charts, imports for China, India, and Other Asia Pacific are clearly much higher in recent years, while imports for the US, Japan, and Europe are down. The peak year for imports (in total) was about 2016 or 2017. Imports were about 3.5 million barrels a day lower in 2022, compared to peak, with both approaches.

[5] Oil imports by area indicate that nearly all oil exporters around the globe are having difficulty maintaining export levels.

Here, again I show two indications, using the same methods as for oil imports. Since trade is two sided, I would expect total import indications to more or less equal the total of all amounts exported.

Figure 7. Oil exports by area using trade flows based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

On Figure 7, peak oil exports (in total) occur in 2016, with the runner up year being 2017. US oil exports are shown to be nearly zero, even in recent years, because US imports and US oil exports more or less cancel out.

Figure 8. Oil exports based on production and consumption data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute. Amounts adjusted to include “Refinery Gain,” as reported by the US Energy Information Administration.

The indications of Figure 8 show that apart from Canada, the amount of oil exported for all the other export groupings shown is lower in recent years than it was a few years ago. This is also evident in Figure 7, but not as clearly.

To some extent, the lower production in recent years is related to the cutbacks announced by OPEC+ (including what I call Russia+). While these cutbacks are “voluntary,” they reflect the fact that based on current oil prices, and based on investments made in recent years, these countries have made the decision to cut back production. No oil exporter would dare mention that it is running short of oil that can be extracted without considerably more investment.

On Figures 7 and 8, “Mexico+South” refers to all the oil being produced from Mexico southward. Besides Mexico, this includes Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Columbia, Ecuador, and a number of other small producers. Most of them are experiencing falling production. Brazil is doing a bit better, but it does not seem to be experiencing much growth in exports.

Africa’s peak year for oil exports seems to have been in 2007 (both approaches), with recent exports at a much lower level.

With respect to Russia+, its exports seem to be down from their peak in 2017 or 2018, but not any more than for oil producers from the Middle East. The European Union oil embargo doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact.

The star performer seems to be Canada, with its rising production and exports from the Canadian Oil Sands.

In this analysis, I have “netted out” imports and exports. On this basis, the US hasn’t moved into significant oil exporter status yet. I am sure that there are some people hoping that the oil production of the US will continue to increase, but whether this will happen is unclear. The growth of US oil production in recent years has helped offset (and thus hide from view) the falling exports of many countries around the world.

[6] Coal exports appear to have peaked about 2016. Europe has reduced its imports of coal, leaving more for other importers.

Figure 9. Coal imports by area using trade flows based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

The peak in coal imports seems to have occurred about 2016. In particular, Europe’s imports of coal have fallen significantly since 2006. At the same time, coal imports have risen for many Asian countries, including China, India, South Korea, and Other Asia Pacific. Even Japan seems to have been able to obtain a fairly consistent level of coal imports for the 22-year period shown on Figure 9.

Figure 10. Coal exports by area based on trade flow data from the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

One thing that is striking about coal exports is that they are disproportionately from countries in the Far East. Even the coal exports of the US and Canada are from North America’s West Coast, across the Pacific. Russia’s coal exports tend to be from Siberia.

The coal exports of South Africa have declined significantly since 2018, and other African countries are eager for their imports. Today’s largest source of coal exports is Indonesia. Coal exports from Russia+, at least until 2021, have been been a source of coal export growth.

A major share of the delivered price of coal is transportation cost, which tends to be fueled by oil, particularly diesel. Overland transit is particularly expensive. The real reason for Europe’s decline in coal imports since 2006 (shown in Figure 9) may be that there are practically no affordable coal exports available to it because it is too geographically remote from major exporters. Of course, this is not a story politicians care to tell voters. They prefer to spin the story as Europe’s choice, to prevent climate change.

[7] Natural gas imports and exports have only recently started to become constrained.

Figure 11. Natural gas exports by area based primarily upon production and consumption data from the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

Figure 11 shows that natural gas exports from Russia+ (really Russia, with a little extra production from other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States) have stayed fairly level, except for a big drop-off in 2009 (probably recession related) and in 2022.

The overall level of natural gas exports has been rising because of contributions from several parts of the world. Africa was an early producer of natural gas exports, but its exports have been dropping off somewhat recently as local gas consumption rises.

More importantly, exports have increased in recent years from the Middle East, Australia, and North America. With this growing supply of exports, it has been possible for importers to increase their imports.

Figure 12. Natural gas imports by area based upon production and consumption data from the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

Europe was able to maintain a fairly stable level of natural gas imports between 1990 and 2018, and even to increase them by 2021. China was able to ramp up its natural gas imports. Even Japan was able to ramp up its natural gas imports until about 2014. It has tapered them back since then. India and Other Asia Pacific both have been able to add a small layer of imports, too.

[8] What lies ahead?

The countries that have the greatest advantage in using fossil fuel imports are the countries that don’t heat or cool their homes, and that don’t have large numbers of private citizens with private passenger automobiles. Because of their sparing use of fossil fuel imports, their economies can afford to pay higher prices to import these fossil fuel imports than other countries. Thus, they are likely to be winners in the competition for fossil fuel imports.

Europe stands out to be an early loser of imports. It is already losing oil and coal imports, and it also seems to be an early loser of natural gas imports. However, for all its talk about preventing climate change, the reduction in European imports of fossil fuels hasn’t made much of a dent in global carbon dioxide emissions (Figure 13).

Figure 13. CO2 emissions for Europe and the Rest of the World, based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute.

I am afraid that no country will really come out ahead. In some sense, the United States is better off than many countries because it is producing slightly more fossil fuels than it consumes. But it still depends on China and other countries for many imported goods, including computers. Given this situation, the United States likely cannot continue business as usual for very long, either.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,123 Responses to Fossil Fuel Imports Are Already Constrained

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    yes i said democracy

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    And most people think democracy would be a good thing

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    Another doctor stood down

    I look forward to the day when the Vaxxed MOREON Doctors… are all dead.

  4. Mrs S says:

    The UK government are getting nervous about their insane net zero policies.

    They are now talking about delaying a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and watering down the phasing out of gas boilers. Also, they are expected to drop plans for energy-efficiency targets for private rented homes.

    Rishi Sunak said politicians of “all the stripes” have not been honest about “costs and trade offs”.

  5. postkey says:

    ” . . . but the best-known members of the genus are found in glacial ice. They include the only annelid worms known to spend their entire lives in glacial ice,[4] and some of the few metazoans to complete their entire life cycle at conditions below 0 °C (32 °F).[5]”

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    norm – is this your mate?

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    And next Z will play the piano with his dick

    • Ed says:

      He is a good speaker. He hitched his wagon to the climate change wagon! This is worse than a cargo cult.

      The whole world minus the collective west must drive the Europeans out of Africa, must drive the US out of Ukraine and then out of Europe. Taiwan’s natural normalization of relations with the middle kingdom must be allowed to follow its natural course. The natural re-normalization of Korea must be allowed without a US dagger in Korea’s heart. BRICS military bases in Mexico can help protect the world from US aggression. The Arab Alliance must drive the US out of Syria to further peace in the Eastern Mediterranean.

      China is doing a good job supplying the weapons of war to Africa to help drive the Europeans out of their pillaging.

      It is potentially a bright time for humans.

    • Ed says:

      Elensky says

      International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Red Cross, and Amnesty International “fictitious organizations that pollute our consciousness with absolutely rubbish assessments.” He also attacked the United Nations as a “rather absent organization” and a “public relations office or a lobby office to earn money for a happy old age for people occupying certain leadership positions.”

      I am beginning to like this guy except for the 500,000 dead.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    We have had 3-4 hour power outages on 3 of the past 5 days.

    Attributed to ‘faults’

    Spent all the $$$ on Rat Juice and bailing out businesses during lockdown so no cash for grid maintenance.

    What a f789ing joke… welcome to White Somalia

    • Ed says:

      In the belly of the beast we have 24/7 power. It is required by the emergent beings in Manhattan: Blackrock, Goldman Sacks, Fidelity, State Street, NY Fed, UN, FBI.

    • I AM THE MOB says:

      Have a drink on me!

      Temple University acting president dies after collapsing on stage

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Thanks for this — it’s a nice way to finish up my day!!!

      • Tim Groves says:

        I’ve watched YouTube videos of Fox and CNN covering this story. They show an alert and active Joanne Epps on the stage. But both declined to air the moment of collapse out of respect for the lady and her friends and family.

        Although I gather it was sudden and unexpected.

        And yes, until proof to the contrary emerges, we can infer that she had been jabbed several times. In 2021 Temple University implemented a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for all students, faculty, and staff on campus. She wouldn’t have been allowed to become president had she taken part in the Inoculation ritual.

        The mandate was rescinded this year and replaced by a recommendation. Apparently 95% of the Temple community have been jabbed.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Walter is a ray of sunshine

    A Radiation-Mimicking Disease of Access: The Only Reason We Initially Believed SARS-CoV-2 was a Respiratory Virus is that the Respiratory Tract is the Initial Point of Access

    Wherever the virus and its Spike Protein reach, they mimic the DAMAGE OF RADIATION: RADIATION PNEUMONIA

  10. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    homicide is natural.

  11. Fast Eddy says:


    To date, the immune systems of highly COVID-19 vaccinated individuals have been protecting vaccinees from severe disease via four main immune mechanisms: via steric immune refocusing (SIR), which generates broadly neutralizing antibodies against the virus; via slow maturation of SIR-created antibodies into isotype-switched IgG4 antibodies (Abs), which have an anti-inflammatory effect and thereby diminish disease severity; via mobilization of MHC-Class I unrestricted cytolytic T lymphocytes (CTLs), which kill the virus and diminish inter-host transmission (transmission from an infected person to a new susceptible person); and via production of high levels of virulence-inhibiting PNNAbs (polyreactive non-neutralizing antibodies), which protect against severe disease in the lower respiratory tract and other internal organs.

    However, these protective immune mechanisms are unstable, unsustainable, will ultimately fail, and are creating serious problems. As explained in the main text of this article: SIR-created Abs are increasingly failing to protect and have spawned a vast array of “immune escape” variants; high titers of IgG4 Abs are predisposing vaccinees to autoimmunity and malignancy; high titers of IgG4 Abs and previously neutralizing, vaccine-induced Abs combined with exposure to highly infectious variants is now disabling SIR and triggering strong activation of APCs (antigen presenting cells), respectively. The resulting stimulation of MHC-unrestricted CTLs, while mitigating COVID-19 disease symptoms, is now causing generalized immune suppression. As titers of previously neutralizing, vaccine-induced Abs are now declining, the concentration of PNNAbs that effectively bind to the N-terminal domain of spike protein (Spike-NTD) is also declining; consequently, the virulence-inhibiting PNNAb levels are irreversibly dropping to levels that will not only fail to protect against severe disease but will also put suboptimal population-level immune pressure on viral virulence.


    Soon the collective suboptimal PNNAb levels will create fertile conditions for the natural selection of more virulent variants in highly vaccinated populations. Under these circumstances, new variants that overcome the PNNAb-mediated inhibitory effect on viral virulence without compromising their intrinsic “fitness” (i.e., are just as infectious as other circulating variants) will become naturally selected and rapidly spread. This is because they will have a transmission advantage over current variants because they will cause severe systemic disease and, therefore, be massively shed in the environment instead of inducing CTL responses to virus-infected cells via enhanced viral uptake into APCs.

    A highly infectious and highly virulent variant will have the potential to cause enormous numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, particularly in highly (and rapidly) vaccinated countries, particularly in vaccinated individuals whose innate immune training has been compromised, especially in frail and elderly individuals who have been vaccinated prior to viral exposure.

  12. moss says:

    How relevant remains the UN?

    Secretary-General Antonio Guterres began his UN General Assembly speech on Tuesday “highlighting the tragedy in Libya, where thousands have died as a result of flooding.
    “Derna is a ‘sad snapshot of the state of our world — the flood of inequity, of injustice, of inability to confront the challenges in our midst,’ Guterres said.
    “And amid a world that is ‘becoming unhinged,’where “geopolitical tensions are rising’ and ‘global challenges are mounting,’ it is ‘high time to renew multilateral institutions based on 21st-century political and economic realities.’
    “He noted the transition of the global system toward multipolarity — where different power centers maintain influence — but warned that the new reality requires ‘strong and effective multilateral institutions’ to operate peacefully and effectively.”

    Wasn’t this exactly the same lead baloon from his G7 closing speech in Hiroshima?
    ah yes, a sad snaphot …
    “Derna’s mayor, Abdel Moneim al-Ghaithi, declared a curfew in his city at 7pm, describing it as preparations for the storm that was already sweeping through the areas of the Green Mountain, including the city of al-Bayda, 100km away.
    “The municipality even released images of Ghaithi directing operations and backing the curfew on Sunday night, as waters were rapidly rising and videos were circulating online showing citizens trapped in their homes.
    “Meanwhile, experts, some of whom last year found the dams in the valley of Wadi Derna were vulnerable to collapse, issued warnings and said residents in the area should be alerted to the danger.
    “However, local authorities and the divided governments continued to assert that the situation was under control, with authorities in Derna denying reports of the dam’s imminent collapse …
    “Survivors from Derna currently sheltering in al-Bayda told MEE that they heard the sound of an explosion at 2.30am. The dam had broken.
    “They said a flash flood ripped through several areas of the city, including the historic old city. Residents of al-Wadi Street were swept into the sea. High-rise residential buildings of eight floors were washed away. Water flowed into Derna at an estimated 3,500 cubic metres per hour.
    “That coincided with a total power and communications blackout. Authorities began to come forward, acknowledging the scale of the disaster and calling for immediate intervention.”

    ah yes, the old shelter in place.
    Never fails, except when lacking strong and effective multilateral institutions.
    If only WHO had been there, think how many lives in Derna would have been saved

    • It costs too much to fix all of the dams and other infrastructure that needs fixing. Bad things are going to happen to some people.

    • Lastcall says:

      Wasn’t the water infrastructure in Libya once considered the 8th wonder of the world?
      That is, until Blair et al bombed it to smithereens in a war-crim action to rival the worst.
      Ah, spreading free-dumb isn’t cheap!

      • Fred says:

        Don’t forget Libya was destroyed in the name of democracy and to put an end to violence against trans people.

        Long live the WEF! Death to Putler!

  13. Tomorrow is the last day and I think the next post will only be in on Oct.

    At least the mud season will arrive in Ukraine so not much will happen there.

  14. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    WTI 70 year oil price chart, inflation adjusted.

    the 2011-2014 price plateau is now roughly $120-140 in inflation adjusted USD.

    today WTI is about $91.

    this 2023 oil bull market might continue for quite a while longer.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    hahahahaha — basically all the side effects listed in the Pfizer document that can be caused by injecting Rat Juice

    The Lie machine is powerful… the MOREONS will believe this hahaha

    What do we know about COVID and the vascular system?

    Early on, we saw it could impact the vascular system in cases of serious illness. But now we appreciate the long-term consequences of infection. Large, follow-up studies are showing that people who have been exposed to COVID have increased risk of developing cardiovascular complications — so, increased risk of heart attacks, strokes and heart rhythm disturbances. It can also lead to blood clots, especially to organs that receive a lot of blood such as the brain, heart and kidney.

    Who’s at higher risk of these cardiovascular complications?

    You’d think this would only happen in people who got really sick with COVID, but the severity of the infection doesn’t seem to make a difference. These complications can occur even in people who have very mild symptoms. The big surprise is how much this can affect younger people. Studies are showing that even young, active people can experience heightened risk of these complications.

  16. Mirror on the wall says:

    Things are kicking off in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is an ethnic Armenian breakaway republic within the internationally recognised borders of Azerbaijan.

    The entire region was a Soviet republic and Armenians expelled hundreds of thousands of Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh back in the 90s and seized that territory. Armenia has said that it is willing to accept Azeri sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh so long as externally agreed ‘humans rights’ are observed and Azerbaijan says that they will have the same rights as everyone else in the country and that there will be no external element to it.

    The local Armenians have militias in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan says that it is seeking to eliminate them. It has left a corridor open between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia and told the civilian population to evacuate the area. The Armenian PM has said that Armenia will not intervene and there are protests about that in Armenia, so there is no indication of any wider escalation.

    Azerbaijan is an important supplier of gas to the EU, since it was largely cut off from Russian gas by its own sanctions, and it is not really clear what Armenia is ‘bringing to the table’ although it did recently allow USA to have some military games or whatever on its territory. Obviously states are as much motivated by geopolitical considerations as by anything else.

    Kamikaze Drones, Gunfire: Azerbaijan Attacks Armenian Positions In Nagorno-Karabakh | Watch

    Azerbaijan launched attacks against the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Artillery, Kamikaze drone bombings and raids hit the regional capital of Stepanakert. While Armenian human rights official said that 25 people were killed in Karabakh, Azerbaijan claimed six deaths in the explosions. Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence released footage showing explosion in a mountainous area which Azerbaijan says hosts Armenian forces’ positions. The fresh explosive move threatens to reopen a bloody 2020 war. Watch for more details.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Alex assesses that the Armenian PM is shifting Armenia away from Russia and into the NATO orbit, which is why he is giving up Nagorno-Karabakh. Many Armenians are not happy with him.

      Alex fears a wider escalation, but Russia seems to have basically abandoned Armenia now, and there is no obvious reason why Iran would intervene. Armenia has made its choices and Russia is tighter with Azerbaijan now anyway.

      > Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict escalation. Trudeau accuses India. Brand cancelled. U/2

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      war is natural.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        chimpanzee clans/tribes engage in war against other chimp clans/tribes.

        there must be other examples in the animal kingdom.


        • Keith Henson says:

          “other examples”

          Sure, ants.

          Chimps making war on adjacent groups appalled Jane Goodal when it happened in her study area. But the people who study the closely related bonobos have never seen fighting between groups. If groups meet at a fruiting tree in the forest, the only way to describe it is a party.

          Why the big difference in behavior? It turns out that bonobos live in an area with lots of food, but when they expand into some parts of the area, they get hit with sleeping sickness and die. So unlike chimps, they have never had a reason to defend territory.

          It turns out that one rather divergent human group does not make war either, the San of southern Africa. They live a low density and have (or at least had) the lowest fertility rate of any human group in the world.

          • Fred says:

            I think the Australian Aborigines had limited wars, which probably contributed to the longevity of their society at 50,000+ years.

            They did had other methods of population control though, which were brutal, but not as destructive as war.

            Isn’t war a great way to mix genes? Probably why it’s a compulsion for us.

      • Keith Henson says:

        “war is natural.”

        While that is true, it’s conditional and can be keep off.

        That’s more or less what happened to the IRA. Over a few decades the Irish woman cut the number of kids they had from about 4 down to replacement. With low population growth, and a little economic growth, the income per capital went up and a brighter future turned off the population support for “the troubles.”

        • Tim Groves says:

          If 50,000 Rangers fans and 50,000 Celtic fans are crammed into a stadium, and the ref awards a dodgy penalty to either side while the score is 1-1 three minutes from the final whistle, it will be war, I tell you! war, I say! War of Braveheartian dimensions.

          If you travel around Scotland, in many towns, villages and rustic sites of former battlegrounds, you are likely to see a stone monument that alludes to some long ago war when the Scots fought the English, or sometimes other Scots. The inscriptions will usually mention that they lost, but they fought boldly.

          • Keith Henson says:

            “War of Braveheartian dimensions. ”

            I appreciate the poetry, but this isn’t a stone age kind of war. For a start, the the tribes that fought could not have been much larger than 150 or 200 adults. Another difference is that the winners of a stadium riot would not go on to kill all the male children of the losers and take the female children as slaves (or wives).

            War isn’t as interesting as it used to be. But I agree with the Scots having fewer generations between the old ways and today.

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    I first noticed Trader Joe’s had reduced the size of their GF white sandwich bread when I put a slice of my usual prepackaged cheddar cheese on top of it and found that half the slice covered the bread. I had been eating that brand of bread every day (despite the holes) for the last six or seven years. That first change was probably about three years ago followed by two more reductions, including one in May of this year. When I last bought some loaves (about 6-8 weeks ago), the loaf size had been cut by (my estimate) a third.

    In order to maintain the same retail price, the company first cut the dimensions of the loaves and then cut the number of slices in each bag. While nearly intolerable, I probably would have replaced my anger with bites of toast or sandwich, but then I tasted the bread and discovered it wasn’t the same bread at all. I always toast it first and enjoyed the texture, but the new one was chewy, not firm and had an entirely different taste. The new recipe had more sugar and many more ingredients. I know this because I happened to have a bag that had contained the old bread and compared it with the new.

    • Retired Librarian says:

      This is a really good article that Eddy links. It’s about the constant downgrading of ordinary life. I was reading it at my dentist today, where no one can figure out what I actually owe at this point, because the insurance company is so dysfunctional. Etc.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The mob has been conditioned blame it on the Ukey War… which leads them to believe it is transitory… suck it up bitches… it’s for a good cause … Zelensky is a beacon of light and Putey is the demon …

        Is it too much to ask to eat smaller slices of bread for the sake of Zelensky? Think of all those hundreds of thousands of dead Ukey’s — and this guy is complaining that his slice of bread is smaller.

        He should be sent to fight Putey .. that will stop him from complaining!

  18. If the forces of civilization wins, in 2035

    The first space colonies active

    All welfare ended, no more medical benefits, and electric cars are programmed to run over people lying in the street.

    95% of the earth’s pop starved to death, and the most of reminder, none of them being allowed to reproduce since their housing is paid by their owners and pregnancy means immediate expulsion to the wildness where they would be on their own with the wild men, so the birthrate for those not in the top 0.1% has plummeted to zero. And, sorry Senor Cuaron, if there is someone like Key (the black girl who has a child), a drone will quickly polish her off.

    Today’s winners are re-equipped to travel a very long distance to the outer space. They will collect hefty rent from their holdings, and bots will make sure to collect rent in time, or else.

    There will be no mercy, and no quarters given.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Today’s winners are re-equipped to travel a very long distance to the outer space.”

      yes, you write sci-fi though it is the unrealistic type.

      ps: there’s nothing out there, very nearly literally nothing, compared to the amazing multitudinous abundance of “things” here on Earth that humans interact with and enjoy.

      again, there’s nothing out there.

      so I do wish “today’s winners” would be successful in leaving Earth life behind and living the rest of their lives “out there”.

      I can’t offhand think of a more appropriate curse for them.

      do you really want to join them?

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    CDC Now Refusing New COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports in Its V-Safe Program

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) V-safe website quietly stopped collecting adverse event reports with no reason or explanation. The V-safe website simply states: “Thank you for your participation. Data collection for COVID-19 vaccines concluded on June 30, 2023.” If you go there today, V-safe directs users to the FDA’s VAERS website for adverse event reporting, even though officials continually derided VAERS as “passive” and “unverified.”

    VAERS and V-safe are mutually exclusive safety collection databases operated by the FDA and CDC, respectively. VAERS is an older way of collecting safety data where one can fill out a form online, or manually, or by calling a toll-free number, whereas V-safe is a device “app” which requires online registration. Both VAERS and V-safe collect personal information, lot numbers, dates and associated information, but V-safe was an active collection system geared towards a younger app-using demographic.


  20. MikeJones says:

    For our very own Space Cadet

    Incredible new moon images show Artemis 3 landing sites near the lunar south pole (photos)
    By Jeff Spry published about 5 hours ago
    This striking composite shot appears in National Geographic Magazine’s special space issue out on Sept. 19.
    A new mosaic of Shackleton Crater as seen by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera and ShadowCam. (Image credit: Mosaic by NASA, Korea Aerospace Research Institute, Arizona State University)
    The lunar south pole looks haunting in a new mosaic image that uses photography from two different NASA cameras in orbit around the moon.

    National Geographic, in coordination with NASA, shared a never-before-seen, high-resolution composite image of the lunar south pole with a detailed companion map of Artemis 3 candidate landing sites.

    This striking image of the moon’s south pole region was composed from a series of photos taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC), a network of cameras mounted on NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter which has been circling the moon since June 2009, and ShadowCam, a NASA-funded instrument on the Korea Aerospace Research Institute’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO). ShadowCam is 200 times more sensitive to light than previously deployed NASA lunar cameras, according to an agency statement.
    Here’s the official photo description per NASA and NatGeo:

    “Shrouded in permanent darkness, the interior of Shackleton crater near the moon’s south pole is revealed in this stunning mosaic. The crater itself was captured by ShadowCam, a NASA instrument designed to peer into the shadowy parts of the lunar surface that has been orbiting the moon for almost a year on the South Korean spacecraft Danuri. The surrounding areas were imaged by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera. Portions of three of the 13 potential landing regions for astronauts during Artemis 3 can be seen in this image.”

    …….Both China and the United States want to send human crews to the moon’s south pole. China has a mission planned for no earlier than 2030, while NASA plans to land a crew of astronauts near the lunar south pole no earlier than 2025 in what is planned to be the first human mission on the moon in over 50 years.

    For more on this inspiring story and additional Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter images, check out National Geographic’s special “Space” issue landing on Sept. 19, 2023.

    Join our Space Forums to keep talking space on the latest missions, night sky and more! And if you have a news tip, correction or comment, let us know at:

    Eddie…join the community let them know it’s all fake …let us know their reaction

  21. Gerhard Hauptmann is now virtually forgotten, but he was the most known playwright in 1890s and 1900s.

    Hauptmann was perhaps the best Silesian author of all time, writing about the hard life of silesians of all walks of life.

    Hauptmann’s masterpiece was “Before Sunrise”. But, unlike a movie with the same title , Hauptmann’s play was eugenic. 80 years before The Beverly Hillbillies, he wrote about a peasant who got lucky because a big coal mine was discovered under his tiny holdings, but despite of his wealth he came from a lower origin so his line deserved to die out because of its inferiority.

    Hauptmann also wrote “The Ascension of Hannele”, which is the very first play ever to use a young girl as the central character, although, due to the nature of the play, in actual production an adult played the titular role.

    Hannele lives in a house of her stepfather, abused, both materially and probably sexually , although not explicitly stated because of the standards of the day. Her older sister had been sent to Paris.

    Hannele runs away from her stepfather’s shack, and tries to drown in a lake, probably after a rape. She is rescued but near dying. She sees hallucinations, one of them showing her older sister, who was starved to death after she got a fever and was unable to work and her employer decided feeding her was not worth it.

    After seeing her stepfather who came to catch her (by law they had to send a child back), she dies. The people in the poorhouse sees her soul is ascending but Hauptmann, who himself married a rich woman but then had affairs with actresses, is laughing at Hannele and the poor people ; her soul might be in the heaven but her line has died out, and the earth is inherited by people more able and more deserving than her.

    That was how everything worked in 1893 when the play was written. It was made into movies in the 1920s and 1930s but not after WW2 when people realized there is no heaven and no angels to soothe the pain in the actual world.

    At the age of 83, the Silesian town where he was living was taken by the Soviets, to be annexed to Poland. Since he was too old to travel and some of his plays had been performed in USSR because of their themes, he was allowed to stay in his house , although the Poles were adamant trying to kick him out. He died next year, and the Poles did not allow him to be buried in his beloved Silesia, which the Poles now call Slask, so he was buried in East Germany 2 months later.

    At least the Poles , being people with some culture, showed more decency than the redneck Raymond Norwood Bell of North Carolina, who killed Anton von Webern, or the US Army who did not punish this two legged humanoid.

  22. Ed says:

    We are saved. Prisoners will ride bike generators for electricity.

    • Ha! Ha! Ha! Not much energy this way. Inmates need to eat food to have energy to generate the little bit of electricity that they could generate.


      Victorian prisoners had to ride treadmills to generate electricity. After he was arrested, because he screwed a Marquess, Oscar Wilde had to ride the treadmill too.

      Well, at least it kept the prisoners healthy and fit.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Actually, Oscar Wilde did not have to ride the treadmill. The treadmill as a form of punishment was gradually phased out in the UK during the 19th century. The Prisons Act of 1889, also known as the Gladstone Act, marked the final discontinuation of the treadmill punishment.

        Oscar Wilde was imprisoned from 1895 to 1897, so, thanks to Gladstone, he missed the treadmill by a whisker or two. However, during his time inside, Wilde was subjected to hard labor, which included picking oakum (separating the strands of old ropes).

        The details of his prison experience can be found in his published work De Profundis, which provides insights into his time in prison, detailing the hard labour, hard bed, and poor food.

        What with Gladstone, Wilde and the Marquis of Queensbury’s son burrowing at the foundations, not to mention old Chucky FitzClarence, I’m not surprised the sun finally did set on the British Empire.

  23. Sam says:

    Could this decline start out slow and then pick up pace? Shale declines quickly. 😬

    • Ravi Uppal says:

      Sam , Mike Shellman has the answer for your question .

    • In the Oil Price link, there is a link to this Reuters piece:

      US oil output from top shale areas to fall for 3rd straight month in October, EIA says

      This article explains why the EIA thinks that there may be a turn-around in production:

      U.S. oil and gas production, however, is on track to reach record highs in 2023 and 2024 due in part to rising oil pries.

      U.S. oil futures, have been trading around their highest prices since November 2022, and are up about 14% so far this year after gaining about 7% in 2022. U.S. gas futures , meanwhile, have plunged about 39% so far this year after rising about 20% last year.

      Of course, if natural gas futures are way down, it seems like that should start pushing natural gas production way down.

      • But, the same old thing? Oil prices get bid up until they help “bust the economy” (“affordability limits”)?
        As fossil fuels deplete, it takes more & more resources to get the same results.
        The usual popular paradigm is, that with more complexity, the world will solve this — but, will complexity tend to collapse, as fossil fuels decline?

        • The least efficient parts of the world economy will tend to get smaller and smaller shares of the world output of goods and services. In other words, today’s high users will tend to be squeezed out. In fact, China is now a fairly high user of energy per capita.

          • Student says:

            Many thanks Gail for your article and also insights

          • Student says:

            That is also connected in my view with what is happening in Italy in the isle of Lampedusa where an incredible number of immigrants have been arriving during these days.
            There are surely some specific situation about possible wars in Africa and geopolitical tensions lately, but we cannot expect that while Europe is collapsing, some poor African countries simultaneously can go economically well…

      • Fred says:

        Don’t worry Russia has lots and lots of oil. Oh wait, the US is at war with them. Dang, that’s inconvenient.

        The Saudis have lots of oil though. Oh wait, Dementia Joe has really pissed them off, so they’re cutting production and not selling in $US.

        But wait, Iran and Venezuela have tons of oil. Oops, the US has really sh-t the nest there.

        But wait some more, 3 tonne electric SUVs are going to replace those stinky FF vehicles.

        Vote Green to keep BAU party time going!

  24. MikeJones says:

    NASA’s OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return to Earth: Live updates

    OSIRIS-REx’s asteroid-sample return capsule will land in Utah on Sept. 23 at around 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT). Here’s the latest.
    By Tariq Malik published

    On Sept. 24, 2023, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission will make history by returning samples of the asteroid Bennu to Earth after seven years in deep space.

    Launched in 2016, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft reached asteroid Bennu in October 2020 and collected samples from the near-Earth asteroid’s surface. On Sept. 24, it will return those samples in a special capsule and parachute, with landing set for 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) at Department of Defense’s Utah Test and Training Range near Dugway, Utah. See the latest on the asteroid sample-return’s approach, landing and sample processing here.

    Inside is a precious sample indeed: the spacecraft picked up material from a 1,650-foot-wide (500 meters) near-Earth asteroid named Bennu in October 2020 that likely contains information about the solar system’s history.

    When NASA’s OSIRIS-REx probe arrived at asteroid Bennu in 2018, it didn’t look like mission planners had envisioned.

    “I really thought we might be in trouble there,” the mission’s chief scientist Dante Lauretta told Because the asteroid’s surface looked so different from how the OSIRIS-REx team thought it would, the spacecraft had to be reprogrammed in order to land on Bennu’s loose, gravely surface.

    But Bennu still had some more surprises in store for the spacecraft as it touched down to collect a sample. Read about how asteroid Bennu caught NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft by surprise and nearly killed it along the way in our feature here as we countdown to the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft dropping off this cargo at Earth on Sunday, Sept. 24.

    Hold on Eddie…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Great opportunity to use some footage from that Bruce Willis movie where they land on an asteroid and blow it up to stop it from destroying Earth

    • halfvard says:

      “The mission team arrived at an estimate by other means, but it’s far from precise. The number is 8.8 oz (250 g), plus or minus 3.6 oz (101 g). So, the sample capsule could contain as much as 12.4 oz (351 g), or as little as 5.2 oz (149 g).”

      Seven years to bring back about half a pound of rock. I wonder what this project cost.

      Needless to say, this is proof that Asteroid mining will be happening any day!

  25. MG says:

    As if COVID was here just to overshadow the fall of China…

    • ivanislav says:

      Zeihan bats 0.000 in his predictions. Ignore him. If I had a penny for every time he made a claim about how this or that wonder-weapon would change the battlefield and win the war for the Ukrainians, I would have to visit a CoinStar.

    • This is a very good video by Peter Zeihan called, “Don’t be surprised by China’s collapse.” Zeihan points out how potential political rivals have been quietly moved out of power, and how public information of all sorts is now disappearing from view. Standard statistics are no longer available on many things. Biographies of younger would-be politicians are not even available.

      Also, the birth rate seems to have collapsed by 70% since 2017, if I understood Zeihan correctly. This means that the country has a real demographic problem, with too many old people and not enough working age people.
      – – – – – – – – –
      One thing that Zeihan does not mention is that China ran into coal production problems long ago–about 2012 or 2013. It has been trying to hide these problems. When I was in China in 2015 for a month, one of the messages I was getting from the people there was that things were already going much less well than advertised to the outside world. China had built its whole model on continuing rapid growth, and this model could not really be kept up. More debt and more imports from poor countries could sort of hide the problem for a while, but eventually the problem would become clear.

      • Fred says:

        Yep, demographics is killer for them. A YouTuber claimed they’re going to lose 600M people from their total in the next 30 years.

        Modern feminism is doing as great a job there as in the West in destroying family formation and tanking the birthrate.

  26. Jan says:

    Auto translate of the German wikipedia entery for OODA loop:

    “You can possibly gain an advantage by going through the OODA loop faster than the opponent. By your own actions (at the end of the loop), you change the situation while the opponent is still processing the old situation. The opponent is forced to start the loop from the beginning without having acted in time.

    With regard to warfare (military or economic), it is therefore necessary to extend the counterparty’s loop with deception and ambiguity of an event and to incorporate further decision loops in a decision loop with targeted measures. So, on the basis of incorrect information or events, the opponent’s thinking and forces are put on the wrong path and, in the end, make the wrong decision. As a result, the opponent will not be able to act quickly or safely, or even incapacitated.”

    • Perhaps all of the emphasis on “saving the climate” is part of a deception or ambiguity loop. Also, the view “renewables will save us” can’t really work. The world needs to change, in ways it is hard to understand in advance.

      • Keith Henson says:

        ““renewables will save us” can’t really work. ”

        If you are concerned with solving the problem, rephrasing to ask, “Under what conditions will renewables solve the energy problems?”

        • Fred says:

          “Under what conditions will renewables solve the energy problems?”

          With a shitload less people obviously. Funny that.

  27. Hubbs says:

    George Carlin has pointed out how our “owners” quietly control things. He is soooo right. Although the Bilderberg, WEF, Jackson Hole etc meetings would have you believe that these meetings actively determine “policy,” they are just decoys to deflect peoples’ focus from how things are really determined.

    My “experience” has been with lawyers, judges, state medical boards, and “rogue agencies” who as unelected officials, do the dirty work that politicians will not risk doing out of fear for their own re election. DHS, NSA, CIA, FBI. Like well paid hitmen.

    The legal system as an entity is primarily concerned with its own existence, not whether justice is rendered. From the court clerks collecting their paychecks and pensions who will never criticize the judges or lawyers, to lawyers on both sides who will never criticize a judge whom they have to work with in their jurisdiction or their colleagues, to the State Bar Associations who insulate members of the legal profession from public scrutiny and are yet another public agency to make you think you have recourse against attorneys when you don’t, to the Judicial Review Committees, again to make you think you have recourse against dishonest, incompetent, unethical judges (you don’t.) What matters is the legal collective does not allow the public to breach its private domain. Whether you get justice is purely secondary. As most politicians come from this pool of lawyer scum, it is not surprising what is transpiring. Corrupt money, corrupt media, corrupt elections and corrupt law.

    But Carlin is so right. They don’t openly “conspire,” they do it behind the curtain, so that you can’t really pinpoint the control source. It is a decentralized form of control based on the silent understanding of “what’s good for them.” But it is more widespread. It is a contagion. Over 50% of the people on both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum receive some form of government transfer payment, whether EBT, WICS, SNAP payments or pensions, contracts like the MIC, green energy, big pharma, or retirees collecting Social Security and Medicare, admittedly the latter two which they have “paid into,” but the issue is now the government has control of these payments and controls the 51% of the population as these are dependent. The Pandora’s Box of a pure Democracy (As opposed to a Constitutional Republic) has now been unleashed.

    • One of my sons told me yesterday, “Anyone who has worked on a group project in college knows that a planned conspiracy cannot work.” I thought about it, and decided he was right.

      Instead of conspiracy, the issue is converging interests of many people, in the same direction. For example, projecting the story that the economy will grow forever, and that Europe and perhaps the US and Europe will be at the center of this growth. In fact, the rich people in those countries have a real need to get the benefit of this future growth, even without fossil fuel resources. So, many different people sponsor nonsensical narratives that can’t possibly work for very long.

      If the economy does continue, the center will have to move somewhere else. Countries or groups will have to get smaller and smaller. The organization will tend to fracture, rather than get larger.

      • Student says:

        I agree in general with these considerations.
        But your reasonings, in my view, only consider the point of conspiracies issued by our own countries against ourselves, while in the world it is full of conspiracies and counter-conspiracies issued by a country or a group of countries against other countries and vice-versa.
        Our intelligence services and agents operate every day on these lines and what they do is completely out of our wishes.
        They operate on a superior level than army and they have objectives that can be the ones to help results of the army or even avoid an intervention of the army, or simply help to reach economical, financial long-term achievements.
        Then what they do, in my view, unfortunately sometimes can go even against their wishes.

        Then, at the end of the end, the self-organizing system will arrive to the inescapable result, I agree with that with you, but the details through which we will arrive to that point are important for us to be understood, in order to avoid to receive an accidental ‘friendly’ hit.
        With that one can consider what happened during last 3 years

        I hope I can express in addition my point with this video:

      • Jan says:

        A “planned conspiracy” we see in politics and in the economy all the time: contracts and agreements, that are not public. Pfizer even claims the right to keep its agreements with the public hand a business secret! All this works wonderfully! The trick is to find a win-win-solution for each participant. The pandemic needed a lot of expensive PR and advertising that was repaid by money gained back by the public hand. Politicians needed the crisis to create consensus. Perhaps some fanatist groups are also involved. The Deep State. Another way is simply to blackmail. Secret services do it all the time!

        The pandemic is unthinkable without “non public negociations and decisions”.

        People, who can manage such tasks are not the average student, I agree to that.

        • FiatJustitiaEtPereatMundus says:

          I agree with everything you say, except this: “People, who can manage such tasks are not the average student”.

          In reality, most of the visible leaders of conspiracies are drug addicts, pedophiles, corrupt incompetents etc.

          The reality is that most people are so damn stupid that you don’t need evil geniuses to control them – just average evil people will do.

          The oligarchs enjoy this on so many levels: they have visible confirmation every day that they WERE RIGHT: most people really are spineless, soulless NPCs that can be convinced to kill themselves and their children by simple propaganda.

          (May I add for the benefit of psychopaths scanning this: Thank you! You taught me a lot of the human nature. Yes, it’s painful to lose all my ideals but at least I can see the truth)

          • you forgot to name the psychopaths

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Exactly. They are MOREONS.

            The PR Team has such low regard for the MOREONS that they openly taunt them…

            Recall the London Olympic Games ceremony with the monster — and syringes… duh – show that to a MOREON and ask what that was all about — maybe they were letting us know what they had in store for us????

            Oh no that’s a conspiracy theory say the MOREONS — then they google cnnbbc to be told what to think they are seeing when they watch that clip

            I’ve read that Fauci now admits masks don’t work … doesn’t matter … when Covid spikes the MOREONS will immediately put the masks back on

            They are cockroaches.. dummmb as f789…

            Looking forward to their extinction

      • FiatJustitiaEtPereatMundus says:

        “Anyone who has worked on a group project in college knows that a planned conspiracy cannot work.”

        I wonder if this is an example of how bad a typical US education is OR a spoiled first world person being unable to imagine work?

        Gail, if you would spend five minutes reading history instead of policing this comments, you would see there have been plenty of planned conspiracies, most of them successful (at least in the short term).

        Most people will do anything for money, out of fear or even out of conviction. We are surrounded by planned conspiracies but you refuse to admit it. I wonder if this is because your husband is a slave to the shot? Maybe your kids too…

        Still, it’s hard to believe you really think a trillionaire cannot organize a conspiracy.
        Here is a simple recipe:
        – Have a trillion
        – Buy govts, courts, media and of course some paid assassins just in case (see Clinton’s 56 friends)
        – Hire corrupt pedophiles and give them drugs (Zelensky), 10 year old girls (Biden et al) or whatever else they desire
        – Put your plans in motion
        – Profit! (In Coflu’s case, my guess is that the profit is research for extending the life of trillionaires and reducing population of idiots that don’t believe in conspiracies)

        • Perhaps my glasses have a little of a rose tint to them. A major use of having a lot of money seems to be, “Buying influence.” Even what seem to be government agencies can have their decisions influenced by corrupt donors.

        • lol fiat

          that’s laying it on a bit thick

          you’re gonna need a bigger trowel

          • Tim Groves says:

            Tel us again how all those blacksmiths conspired to bring down the Twin Towers, Norm. That one never gets boring.

            • Tim

              repeating that blacksmith thing reveals only your shallowness of thought

              not worth any attempt on my part to deal with it.

              Though it does lay bare all your other fixations, and the the emptyness of them

            • Tim Groves says:

              I never claimed to be a deep thinker, Norman. Unlike some folks.

              But at least I didn’t fall for this one.

              Can you say the same?


            • Fast Eddy says:


              I know — norm you should take up blacksmithing and order a tank of jet fuel to heat your steel… hahahaha… norm… norm!!!!!!

              You are once again .. the butt of a joke …

              Booster norm

            • no one asked you to fall for anything

              the blacksmith was demonstrating the properties of steel

              fire off a couple more neurons and you will understand he didn’t melt steel

              that was the point

              but you prefer the abyss of conclusion

            • Tim Groves says:

              I will note, though, for general enlightenment, your refusal to honestly address points that would, if honestly addressed, force you to admit that you were in error. In this you have a lot more in common with Keith than either of you would care to acknowledge.

              When I’m wrong, and shown to be wrong, and recognize that I am wrong, I admit it in all humility. I am not egoistically attached to being correct in everything I think or everything I say.

              Unlike some folks, who are puffed up by their own conceit to the extent of floating away like the pig balloon over Battersea Power Station on the cover of Pink Floyd’s Animasl I regard being wrong and having to own up to it as an occupational hazard, not as an existential crisis.

              It is SO SO SO liberating not to have to be right all the time, although I usually am, of course.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I find it best just to delete all of norm’s posts without reading them

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Basically everything is a conspiracy … it’s all fake – which is a grand conspiracy.

          Open cnnbbc… most of what you will see is fake … cuz that’s how they control the mob…

          Some obvious examples:

          – the india pc of sh it that we are supposed to believe is on the moon

          – klimax change

          – the transition to EVs and renewable energy

          – we have enough oil till at least 2050

          – crisis actors

          – the Ghost of Kiev and styrofoam

          – moon landings

          And on and on and on…

          The thing is …

          It is impossible to know what is real and what is fake — so it may as well be fake.. and it probably is

          This is the Mother of all Conspiracies — we are living in nothing less than a matrix (or a simulation)

          Check it out — the news is discussing this as if it’s real … and million are watching .. believing it’s real…

          it is absolutely NOT real… but hey … I am in the minority

      • I think your son is being a bit facile, and certainly naïve, He’s conveniently discarding “conspiracies” into the trash bin of “things I no longer need to think about”. He’s by now means alone, since considering the real forces consciously arrayed against us is depressing and demoralizing.

        The fact that people filed patents on “covid-19” related products well before the supposed emergence of “covid-19—whatever its real nature—would indicate that people were working (breathing) together (con-spiring) in its regard. This is an unavoidable conclusion.

        The fact that newscasters announced the collapse of WTC building 7 well before that event, means that people had to con-spire to that end, however ham-handedly. Again, this is an unavoidable conclusion and not explicable by mere randomness.

        Regarding college group projects, I’d draw attention to the incentives involved: collectively, the group should want to achieve a good grade, but the individual incentive is to do as little work as possible while coasting on the efforts of others. That’s a headwind that the Silversteins and Faucis, the Bourlas and Blankfeins and Bidens and Brennans and such don’t experience: they are not afraid of long hours in service to the larger, insatiable, grift/graft they have going on. Any of these cretins could have relaxed and retired long ago on their ill-gotten gains, yet they beaver on!!!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          since considering the real forces consciously arrayed against us is depressing and demoralizing.

          Alternatively it can be comforting to know that there are qualified folks who are very thorough who make decisions for the mob…

          Does anyone seriously think we should have democracy — and let the mob make the decisions?

          Ya sometimes they kill a few thousand MOREONS — e.g. 911 … big deal… as long as you don’t get caught up in one of their shenanigans what’s a few thousand dead? They are all gonna die someday anyway + there are far too many MOREONS … ideally 50 million would have died…

          And it was all for a good cause — it allowed for the invasion of multiple countries ensuring we continued to pillage and live large…

          When you think of it that way — the 3000 jumping from the windows is actually banal… so .. some dead folks … c’ya … thanks for coming.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Lidia, what do you think of Norman’s blacksmith theory?

          Could one blacksmith have done it alone, or would an entire forge of blacksmiths have had to conspire to pull off the caper?

          Or is Norman hammering away at this one in vain?

          • i’d never thought of it in that way tim

            the blacksmith would have been a good cover—as 2300 office workers in wtc came to work on horseback every day—so would have needed an in-house blacksmith for shoeing them.

            he would have been in a perfect positon to hump explosives into the building a bit at a time
            thanks for putting me straight tim

            • Tim Groves says:

              Zeriously, just for a minute. Let’s examine your actual hypothesis. We’ll put all talk of blacksmiths to one side.

              You appear to contend that airplanes, jet fuel and office equipment and material fires alone were sufficient to have—not toppled the Twin Towers over—but disintegrated them while making them collapse straight down at a considerable fraction of free-fall speed, and not even puncturing the WTC bathtub as they landed in a pile.

              Pardon me, but that is far more outlandish than the blacksmith theory.

              Among the many fields I lack expertise in is structural engineering. But I learned enough physics to be unable to comprehend how the Twin Towers could have come down that fast and that neat in the absence of some kind of controlled demolition.

              The main mass of the towers offered no significant resistance to the collapse. Dozens of floors simply gave way in a phenomena that has been described as “pancaking” and didn’t slow the collapse hardly at all.

              If you do comprehend how that happened, without controlled demolition techniques, that can only mean you learned a lot more physics than I did, or a lot less.

              “Good Lord! There are no words.”

  28. I AM THE MOB says:

    One thing I feel is important to not overlook is the “x” factor of what a crisis could produce on the upside. For example, the lithium battery was invented by Exxon labs during the 70’s oil crisis. Van Gogh painted ‘Starry Night” when he was locked down in mental hospital.

    “Hope, it is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective, a lot of hope is dangerous.” ― Suzanne Collins, The Hunger Games

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    What an amazing flight path!!!

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Ardern is looking even more donkeyish that ever…

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Rocker Hospitalized After Tour, Faces ‘Possibility of Heart Failure’: Wife

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Ontario is facing another lockdown


    • Ed Dowd:

      New Report: UK Death & Disability Analysis: Cardiovascular Disease, Ages 15-44

      ✅The anecdotal evidence observed in media has been confirmed by a strong statistical signal
      ✅Excess Death Rates from Cardiovascular diseases up 13% in 20, 30% in 21 & 44% in 22
      ✅Z-scores of 7.5 & 10.5 were observed in 21 & 22 respectively. Black swan signals.
      ✅Observations point to a worrying picture of an even greater acceleration in coming years of deaths & disabilities…an investigation is needed!

    • Student says:

      If I remember correctly, on this point Gail explained that refinery capacity for diesel and jet fuel is reducing because refineries have been constantly closed during the recent years, due to less availability of the heavy oil that generate diesel and jet fuel.

      Is it correct, Gail ?

      • Europe, the US, and the Central and South America, have been shutting down refining capacity since 2020. I don’t have a breakdown of how this capacity is split between that which can do cracking (of heavy oil) and that which is adapted to handling light oil.

        At the same time, Southeast Asia has been adding a lot of capacity. I don’t have a split between that which can do cracking and that which is adapted to handling light oil.

        I know that refineries that can do cracking are considerably more expensive than ones that cannot. It the supply of heavy oil is not increasing, no one would have the motivation to add more refineries for it. The US has to import heavy oil to fill its refineries that are adapted to cracking.

        One thing I noticed in looking at recent oil production reports is that total world “refinery gain” has not been increasing. Refinery gain comes from cracking long molecules into shorter ones. It would be possible to look at refinery gain by country to see where the reduction (and increases) in refinery capacity for heavy oils is taking place.

  33. Zemi says:

    So now India is considering changing its name to Bharat. I have found the back stroy to that.

    When Mr Modi became prime minister of India, he opened his atlas. He looked at “the Indian subcontinent”.

    “Ha!” he cried. “Bhutanistan, Srilanka Desh – those countries and more are all MINE!”

    Then he looked again at the map and saw “the Indian ocean” and all the countries located in it.

    “Ha!” he cried. “Those countries are all MINE!” A feeling of omnipotence surged within him.

    When he visited Madagascar, he told the president, “You have been living in my ocean for millions of years, yet you have never paid me any rent. I demand two trillion rupees in back payment!”

    “Just a moment”, replied the president. He left the room, and on his return he presented two grains of rice to Mr Modi. “Peace, my brother. The ocean does not belong to you. Its name has misled you. Go home and change the name of your country to Bharat. Then when you look at the atlas, the megalomania will no longer surge inside you.”

    Mr Modi was impressed. He returned home and began to make the argument for a gentler name for his country.

    Bharat. It has a nice ring to it. I like it. Except I don’t really know how I should pronounce the “Bh”. 🙁

    • Zemi says:

      India. There are lots of Indians, in my country (the UK), and also around the world. There is a vast Indian diaspora. Many people of Indian descent live in Fiji, Mauritius, the Seychelles and in various other countries.

      When I visited Germany, I met a woman with an Indian husband. I have an English friend from school days who married an Indian woman. And now a man of Indian descent is prime minister of the UK. You will meet Indians or people of Indian descent all over the world. They are educated, decent and generally friendly. However, I met a group of Indians in Brazil who were not so friendly. They started firing darts at me from blowpipes. I was terrified. Suddenly, a helicopter landed in the jungle and airlifted me to safety, just in the nick of time. “We spotted you on Google Earth”, the pilot told me.

      So Indians come in various types. There are Incas and Aztecs, and Indians who live on reservations and Indians who live in the jungle, to name but a few. It can be quite confusing. If you meet a West Indian, does he come from Mumbai, Pune, Jamaica or the Lesser Antilles? You see my point. Then there are the East Indies. Perhaps that is why the names India and Indonesia are so close. In fact, our severely dyslexic forum member chrisild once flew to Indonesia, intending to visit the Taj Mahal. The locals were less than impressed when he told them that he was a quarter Dutch. The Dutch had been their colonial masters. If the Republic of India changed its name to Bharat, it would be less confusing for people like chrisild. There are already enough places in the world with similar names: Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Papua New Guinea. So yes, India, stop confusing us and change your name. You do truly deserve a unique name. 🙂

      • Zemi says:

        Oh, I forgot “chrisild” departed OFW some while ago. Others have stolen his name.

      • Jan says:

        I am impressed by the Google Earth rescue!

      • Tim Groves says:

        There are Indians in the East Indies and Indians in the West Indies too. From Fiji to Barbados and everywhere in between.

        And in my part of the world, there are lot of Indians running family-owned restaurants and trading companies in Yokohama and Kobe. In terms of numbers, they are exceeded by the Chinese, but they are a potent and vibrant force in the economies and communities of both cities.

        Although Yokohama has a pro baseball team—the DeNA BayStars—Kobe doesn’t. If that city ever gets it’s act together and puts together a team, I suggest they name it The Kobe Indians.

  34. Tim Groves says:

    Sad news:

    Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) announced Monday she will not seek reelection in her district, critical to her party, after receiving a diagnosis of progressive supra-nuclear palsy.

    In April, Wexton announced that she had been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. She struck a positive tone, however, assuring constituents that she would continue to fight and expressed hope that she would serve them for “many years to come.”

    However, she shared a solemn update on Monday, revealing she received a modified diagnosis of progressive supra-nuclear palsy, type-p (PSP-P).

    She explained in a statement that she planned to be transparent throughout the process of her diagnosis but said she “wasn’t making the progress to manage my symptoms that I had hoped” over the past few months. She added that she “noticed the women in my Parkinson’s support group weren’t having the same experience that I was.”

    “I sought out additional medical opinions and testing, and my doctors modified my diagnosis to Progressive Supra-nuclear Palsy – a kind of ‘Parkinson’s on steroids,’” the 55-year-old congresswoman said, emphasizing that she believes honesty is “the most important value in public service.” [Yeah, that last line cracked me up too!]

    • Tim Groves says:

      On the other hand, perhaps I should say schad news:

      Two and a half years ago, Wexton put herself at the head of the queue, as this op ed from The Washington Times reminds us:

      Rep. Jennifer Wexton, Virginia Democrat, tweeted last month that she received the first of two doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine. Oh, Congresswoman Wexton, thank you for getting it, and for encouraging us plebes to get it, too — when, as you said, it ‘becomes available’ to us. Obviously, you made sure it was available to you first.

      Who determined Ms. Wexton and the rest of Congress should come before Americans with higher risks? How lovely that people such as Wexton and Sen. Kamala Harris could get the vaccine before those of us with higher risks — even though Harris claimed she wouldn’t get the vaccine if President Trump encouraged us to get it, which he did. (I guess she was just kidding.)

      I am also just thrilled that Wexton and the rest of the swamp is still being paid when scores of Americans received nothing in aid after months of being being forced to shut down or close their businesses and subsist with no income. According to these actions, Congress, your constituents have to assume your philosophy is this: ‘After me and mine, then you come first.’

      • ivanislav says:

        She didn’t get the memo: you’re supposed to pretend to take it, not actually take it.

        • David says:

          Elite figures seem to be as indoctrinated by ‘modern medicine’ as anybody else. I doubt that anyone except a few CEOs and hangers-on knew not to take it.

          Dr. Pierre Kory on his blog estimated the number of US politicians with severe jab injuries. I think it was over ten. He must now be one of the main experts dealing with the aftermath. In strictest confidence of course, so we won’t get to know their names.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Keith, Norman, this is another exciting data point!

      Can you join the dots?

      55-year-old congresswoman develops “Parkinson’s on steroids” two years after getting injected with GNW (Goodness Knows What).

      There are only 435 congresspersons serving in the U.S. House of Representatives—and that group is distinguished from the general population in that as far as we know they were not in anyway pressurized to get jabbed, so quite a few probably declined to submit to the needle.

      What are the odds?

      Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP) is a rare neurodegenerative disorder, and it is estimated to affect approximately 5 to 6 individuals per 100,000 people. Given the population of the United States, which is around 331 million as of 2021, it can be estimated that around 16,550 to 19,860 Americans may develop PSP each year. Which sounds like a lot. But 5 people per 100,000 is equal to 1 person in 20,000, which is a lot less than 1 person in 435.

    • Fast Eddy says:


      • Zemi says:

        At least it’s a progressive disease and not a reactionary one, as befits a Democrat. And super-nuclear to boot, just to remind us that Democrats too are hot on defense and approve of the bomb. 🙂

      • Tim Groves says:

        It gets better. Jennifer Wexton is also big on diversity.

        “The trans pride flying proudly outside her office is a sign that
        @JenniferWexton is the pro-equality champion Virginians deserve.”

        But perhaps her finest hour came earlier this year when she introduced legislation to rename the Purcellville, Virginia, post office in honor of Madeleine Albright, the first female U.S. Secretary of State who called Virginia’s 10th District home for many years.

        “Secretary Madeleine Albright was a fearless trailblazer for women and a devoted public servant who touched the lives of so many whom she taught, mentored, and worked with – including me,” said Wexton. “Her relentless defense of democracy and advocacy for human rights, inspired by her own lived experience fleeing Nazi persecution, made her an icon here at home and around the globe. It is my honor to lead this legislation to celebrate her historic life and legacy here in Virginia’s 10th District.”

        Giving Purcellville residents another reason to puke every time they pass the post office. What’s not to like?

  35. adonis says:

    Aurelio Peccei had started the Club on the basis of what he called the “problematique” or the “predicament” of humankind. From his first public speech on this subject, in 1965 (you can find it here), it is clear that he saw the problems facing humankind mainly in terms of a fair distribution of the available resources, avoidance of wars, elimination of poverty, health care for everyone, and the like.

    • adonis says:

      I believe the elders are still trying to bring in the four points that Aurelio Peccei was harping on about in 1965 , will the elders be successful in their hopes and aspirations unfortunateley it looks like they will not be they are running out of time all we can do now is sit back and enjoy the ride.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      unfair distribution is natural.
      war is natural.
      poverty is natural.
      health care isn’t an essential, it’s a luxury.

      58 years later, the problems he noticed are still here.

      the better or worse direction is clear.

      care to guess what is the inevitable direction?

      • Keith Henson says:

        “war is natural”

        Yes. I argue that humans have been selected for war. But we don’t usually fight unless the alternative (starvation) is worse.

        “the better or worse direction is clear.”

        For the most part in the last 50 years thing have gotten better. That’s largely due to technology.

        It’s not clear if this can continue. With no technical advances I would say not. But technical advances are likely.

        • Tiom Groves says:

          Keith, if we were in a pub, I would argue against you.
          (And if Norman was with us we could have hours of fun trying to get him to buy a round.)

          I would argue that if anything, humans have been selected for cooperation. War is a racket, a business, or a custom in some places, but most of all an example of aberrant behavior, not an instinct.

          You put it best yourself :We don’t usually fight unless the alternative (starvation) is worse.

          Let me see if I can emulate your logic.

          We don’t usually jump into a blazing inferno unless the alternative (letting a loved one, a baby, or a beautiful princess die; or getting caught by a pack of starving hyenas) is worse.

          Therefore, jumping into a blazing inferno is a human instinct?

          Does that sound right to you?

          I prefer Bronowski’s take:

          “Of course it’s tempting to close one’s eyes to history, and instead speculate about the roots of war in some possible animal instinct: as if, like the tiger, we still had to kill to live, or, like the robin redbreast, to defend a nesting territory. But war, organized war, is not a human instinct. It is a highly planned and cooperative form of theft. And that form of theft began 10,000 years ago when the harvesters of wheat accumulated a surplus and the nomads rose out of the desert to rob them of what they themselves could not provide. The evidence for that, we saw, in the walled city of Jericho and its prehistoric tower… That is the beginning of war.”
          — Jacob Bronowski, The Ascent of Man

          • as i said on here years ago

            our problems started when someone built a wall round a piece of land, and said ”this is mine”

            or my personal shorthand version—‘when we turned the planet into cash.’

            for that ‘one liner’ its your turn tio buy a round

            • Dennis L. says:


              Reading “The Ancient City” and walls were very important pre history.

              If religion comes from our understanding the fabric of the universe, then they are part of how we are organized.

              Really don’t have time to explain, the book is interesting and seems like good read.

              Have no interest in changing minds, try and learn from all of you.

              Dennis L.

          • Cromagnon says:

            The nomads of the desert were simply trying to save humanity from itself. The walls of Jericho did not hold,…..and neither will wheat farming in the long term.

          • Keith Henson says:

            “humans have been selected for cooperation”


            “jumping into a blazing inferno is a human instinct? ”

            Sort of.

            “We are familiar with behavior (ultimately from genes) where parents take risks, sometimes losing their lives to save their children. In an environment where such events were common, the gene(s) for doing so would become more common if (on average) the self-sacrifice of a parent saved three or more of their children. The parent has one copy; each of the children has a 50% chance of having the same gene. On average more copies, 1.5, survive the event if a parent dies than if all three children die. This is an immense simplification; life is far more complex, and there are probably many genes involved, but the idea should be clear as to the origin of this behavior trait.”

            BTW, war almost certainly originated long before the rise of agriculture.

            • Tim Groves says:

              You could be right on genetic selection for altruism. British geneticist and evolutionary biologist J.B.S Haldene is said to have stated: “I would lay down my life for two brothers or eight cousins.”

              However, like so much “settled science”, I would have to say, “Prove it!”

              I wouldn’t lay down my life for my two brothers or even to save all my 25 cousins. Genes be damned!

              But I might jump into a river to save a complete and total stranger, or even a dog or a cat.

              Also, Keith, have you considered that if all the people who were genetically inclined to risk their lives to save others did so, while all those who were genetically inclined to sit, watch and enjoy while others went to their doom did that, then altruistic genes would disappear from the human gene pool as surely as genes for having no legs or no brain would?

              And if that thought hasn’t occurred to you, it could be be because your mind is just too highly developed and too focused on the light show going on in the vicinity of Tabby’s Star..

              Just so! That must be how the elephant got his long trunk.

            • Keith Henson says:


              Strictly speaking this is kin selection, doing something good for your genes even if the gene is in a relative.

              Hamilton stated this directly. I have quoted both of them in papers.

              “or eight cousins”

              This is tricky because it only has to be statistically true for evolution to occur.

              “Prove it!”

              No need, it is mathematically as true as 1+1 – 2. If you can’t deal with the math, then shame on you.

              “might jump into a river”

              “inclined to risk their lives to save others did so”

              Be careful to keep altruism and kin selection apart.

              “light show ”

              We can’t be sure these light dips are mega structures built by aliens or not. But if they are, they show how to solve our energy crisis. The 22% dip object is collecting well over a million times what humans use. That’s in spite of it being way out from the star.

              I suppose enough attention on this might give Putin an excuse to terminate the war in Ukraine. Nothing ends a war faster than a threat to both sides.

            • Tim Groves says:

              No need, it is mathematically as true as 1+1 – 2. If you can’t deal with the math, then shame on you.

              From you, Keith, I take that as an admission. Especially the “shame on you” bit. I can read the undertones of that. Do you sense that your cover as a critical thinker has been blown to smithereens and you are embarrassed and struggling not to let it show?

              I am surprised at your lack of rigorous thinking, because I have always given you the benefit of the doubt that you were as smart as the image you project. But give people enough rope and they are bound to hang themselves. The higher the monkey climbs, the more he shows his tale. I could talk in clichés till the cows come home.

              But you must know that it doesn’t take even high-school math to explain the “kin selection” hypothesis mathematically. It’s as easy as dealing with Mendel’s peas and easier than dealing with a tax return, so if I couldn’t deal with it, I wouldn’t be at OFW. It’s safe to say that everyone reading this knows enough math to understand “kin selection, and most of them also have enough discernment to see through your pretentious BS.

              No need to prove it?

              No need to explain why it is correct?

              It’s mathematically true?

              But whether a theory is mathematically true or not is irrelevant. The theory you are touting here is not scientifically documented to be true. It is a matter of models and suppositions that are misunderstood as representing reality. (Where else have we seen that, I wonder?) That’s the whole point, and people really should be aware of it.

              Phlogiston theory, the geocentric model of the universe, the luminiferous ether, caloric theory…. all were mathematically consistent or internally coherent but ultimately proven false by empirical evidence.

              I asked you to prove it, and you have tacitly admitted that you can’t prove it. You know you can’t prove it, and we all know you can’t prove it, and by now you should know that we know you can’t prove it.

              You’ve been stuck int your ivory tower for so long that you are not even bothering to interact with real-world data. You prefer to remain with models and anecdotes and thought experiments that you haven’t put a lot of thought into.

              It’s not science, laddie.

              It’s just that, exactly like Norman, you seem to be impervious to any information or any ideas that you don’t already hold and agree with.

              It’s as if there’s a screen between you and reality. So essentially, there is no point in trying to talk with you or to offer either supplementary or conflicting information.

              As far as you are concerned, you know it all already and you are not even going to pretend to entertain the possibility that you don’t.

              Nothing’s gonna change your world.

              I don’t know why I bother, sometimes. Pointing out the cognitive errors of people can only be hurtful, can’t it? It’s part of the human tragedy. Keith, Norman, Noam Chomsky…. All geniuses in their time, but you can’t get a word of sense out of them these days.

            • Keith Henson says:

              Sorry about the _ in place of = typo.

              “not scientifically documented”

              Try The Extended Phenotype. It is based on Dawkins’ Selfish Gene. I don’t name drop too often, but if you look into the Second Edition, Dawkins acknowledges me for work I did in memetics. (My wife named the field.)

              But it doesn’t matter a bit. I don’t care what you think of kin selection, or the underlying genetics or me.

              “stuck int your ivory tower”

              It’s not hard to figure out that I have never worked for any sort of higher education. Try Wikipedia.

              “Nothing’s gonna change your world.”

              That’s not the case. This last year has changed my thoughts on life in the universe from “not a chance” (or an extremely small one) to “Oh my ghod, close aliens with power satellites 400 times the area of the Earth!”

              As it relates to OFW, we may never solve the energy problem and really bad things will happen. But from what we can see out around Tabby’s star, there _IS_ a solution.

        • Tim Groves says:

          One more thing, what is your opinion on the situation in which the bravest, boldest, most aggressive, most heroic, most macho fighters—the male warriors—tend to die in wars, while the shyest, meekest, mildest, weakest, most wimpy, cowardly stay-at-home nerdy male types tend to survive and breed with the cutest chicks?

          How does this dynamic select humans for war?

          And yes, I did read your paper on the subject—in which I recall you mentioned Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin as archetypes of some kind.

          Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection suggests that traits promoting survival and reproductive success are more likely to be passed on to future generations. While conflict and competition have been observed throughout human history, human behavior is influenced by a complex interplay of genetic, environmental, and cultural factors. The propensity for war is not solely determined by genetics, but by a combination of various factors.

          • Cromagnon says:

            In fact its the very few lucky, bold, strongest, most aggressive guys returning from war that get almost all the girls. They usually bring them back in slave trains.

            Women are selected for life in harems and to “fall in love” with the guys that killed all their relatives…….todays dystopian dating scene makes this very very clear.

            When Australian researchers in the 1950s asked the newly discovered constantly waring New Guinea Highlanders why they fought wars so often…

            The highlanders thought the were idiots…….”we fight to get more pigs and more women”…….like what else is there?

            • Dennis L. says:

              Your summary seems to reflect how the world works.

              Dennis L.

            • knowing the difference is critical

            • Tim Groves says:

              Cromagnon, in my experience, the very few lucky, bold, strongest, most aggressive guys returning from war are just that—a very small minority.

              The vast majority of warriors are more likely to return physically and/or mentally wrecked and unable to function properly in civilian life. We all know a few of those characters.

              But then again, I’ve never lived in the New Guinea Highlands. When I trekked there, wherever I went, the locals told me that they were alright, but that I should beware because on the other side of the mountains, the people were headhunters.

          • Keith Henson says:

            “and breed with the cutest chicks?”

            The usual result when two tribes fought was like Crow Creek or the discussion in Numbers, the winners killed all the males of the losers, nerds and children included.

            • Tim Groves says:

              I did read a long time ago that there are not many Celtic Y chromosomes in the English population because the Angles, Saxons, Jutes and Danes didn’t allow their British male slaves or serfs to breed; but there is a lot more Celtic mitochondria.

      • Tim Groves says:

        War is a state of armed conflict between two or more groups or nations.

        From some perspectives, war may be “natural”, but what does that mean?

        For me, war appears to be the opposite of “natural”.

        It is unnatural, artificial, and anthropogenic.

        • Zemi says:

          In decadent times, sport replaces war. Sport IS war by other means. Look at what huge big business football is today, and what huge amounts its top players are paid.

          • Tim Groves says:

            I agree with this as an analogy. It was said

            The phrase “the battlefields of Eton” is often attributed to the Duke of Wellington. Kulm hasn’t singled him out for destroying civilization YET.

            British sports journalist Simon Barnes said:
            “The British and the English, in particular, play their games as if they are war. The Australians and Americans play their sports as if they are fun.”

            Orwell wrote, “Serious sport has nothing to do with fair play. It is bound up with hatred, jealousy, boastfulness, disregard of all rules, and sadistic pleasure in witnessing violence. In other words, it is war minus the shooting.”

            But I think these luminaries as well as Keith and yourself are confusing war with fighting.Of course, a lot of fighting goes on in the course of war, but with aggressive testosterone-addled young men, a lot of fighting goes on in any case.

            Bronowski correctly draws our attention to the fact that war, organized war is not identical with fighting but an enterprise that employs fighting in pursuit of certain goals, such as depriving others of their property, liberty, livelihood, etc.

            Leonardo da Vinci observed that “There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.”

            Bronowski has seen and he has shown others what war, organized war is. many people have seen this when shown. Others will not see it because they are of the class of people who do not see.

            By the way, the punters would pay a lot more to see rival teams blowing each other up with grenades, mortars, missiles. But I shouldn’t give the owners too many ideas.

            On the other hand, FE thinks the Ukraine War is fake, like pro wrestling. I guess this is because the videos don’t show enough blood and gore for his liking. And as a Canuck., he’s seen more violence on the ice hockey rink.

            • Zemi says:

              But now we have a new war. Let’s take sides, children!

              I support the Arbomenians against the Azerbanjolians, even though I know they cannot win. You can lay bets that Lucy-MOTW will support the Azeri Mushlimbs, just because they are Mushlimbs. Typical.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I vote for more CGI and stock videos of trucks launching rockets into the bush!

              Very impressive stuff

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Zemi, I have never expressed support for Russia or any other state in war.

              I have given an accurate account of the UKR conflict and its context as I see it.

              If you do not like that account then that is just too bad.

              Personal attacks on the messenger are just childish and you are only embarrassing yourself.

              I would have expected the forum to call that nonsense out, but it is what it is.

            • Zemi says:

              “Zemi, I have never expressed support for Russia or any other state in war.”

              Really, how can you tell such fibs. The blatant pro-Russian bias of your messages is glaringly obvious. You are just embarrassing yourself with such shameless fibs.

            • By definition, nobles are Civilization. So Wellington does not destroy Civilization.

              The moronic Irish guy who closed the gate at Hougumont and was a pauper 6 years later, or John Lees, who was both at Waterloo and Peterloo and died in the latter, did harm civilization.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Where are the embedded journalists that we have seen in every other conflict for the past 30 years… why are there so few clips of actual fighting?

              Why doesn’t Pootey turn the valve a little… to pressure NATO to back off?

              Why are we seeing so many clips of fake fighting? e.g. Ghost of Kiev

              Nobody can answer any of these questions – therefore it is an orchestrated ‘war’… for the purpose of distracting the mob and providing an excuse for inflation

            • Tim Groves says:

              Eddy, these are good questions.

              Very good questions!

              The only good war correspondent is an embedded journalist, and preferably one who is talking a lot of flak.

        • all species engage in warfare

          the difference with humankind is, that we seek to conquer territories beyond our immediate range of vision and consciousness.

          no other animal does that.

        • Keith Henson says:

          “For me, war appears to be the opposite of “natural”.

          It is common across virtually all human groups. There is an exception, the San, which I discuss in the so far unpublished paper.

          What happens is that population growth eventually outstrips the resource base which feeds people. Often this is accompanied with a weather induced famine. The choice (from the viewpoint of genes) is to starve in place or attempt to take a neighbor’s resources. Because the warrior’s genes are also in their female children, going to war (from the genes viewpoint) is around 37% better than starving. (The female children of the losers are incorporated into the winners group.)

          “It is unnatural, artificial, and anthropogenic.”

          Imagine a world with no wars but continual population growth. Something is going to put a lid on the population.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Keith, we are men of science, are we not? We don’t hang garlic from the rafters to deter vampires, do we? Or avoid walking out under the full moon?

            Well, the idea of there being specific genes for going to war in the human genome, while it is extremely sexy and appealing, is a complex topic that is debated year after year by experts genetics and behavioral sciences without them coming to a firm consensus or proving anything one way or the other.

            Nobody has identified a single gene and can point to that and say with a clear conscience, “This is the gene for war!”

            While genes can influence various aspects of human behavior, including aggression and risk-taking, the concept of specific genes solely dedicated to predisposing individuals to engage in war is not well-supported by scientific evidence.

            Human behavior, including the propensity for warfare, is bound to be influenced by a multitude of factors, including genetic, environmental, cultural, and social aspects. But even if such genes existed, we are going to have a hard time trying to isolate and identify specific genes responsible for complex behaviors like war participation.

            It is important to approach claims about specific genes for complex human behaviors with caution, as our understanding of the genetic basis of human behavior is still evolving, and it is likely that multiple genetic and non-genetic factors contribute to such behaviors.

            You seem to have inherited a gene for over-eager acceptance of outlandish theories on skimpy evidence and believing six highly improbable things before breakfast. Or perhaps you just read too much science fiction as a kid?

            • Perhaps it is worthwhile that some people “have inherited a gene for over-eager acceptance of outlandish theories on skimpy evidence.”

              We all differ in various ways. Other people seem to have a propensity to believe that anything the mainstream media tells us must be true. It works out well when there are a mix of people with different views. Occasionally, those on the fringes of views will turn out to be correct.

  36. CTG says:

    Does any of the very old timers here realize

    1. What we are talking now is what we had discussed 1-2 decades ago on the oil drum and OFW and it is right now playing out as what Gail has wrote earlier?

    2. Gail never wavered on “renewables” because those are facts that are supported by maths -it does not work

    3. Finite energy is now finite resources – all dictate by the total cost of extracting them. Cost as in cost to the society and whether it is worthwhile to extract the tar from tar sands.

    4. Nothing is new as discussed here in OFW. It is just like a preview in the 2007-2016 and then it get apparent that things are not right (2016-2020) and the become outright bad post COVID.

    At least I see the very old timers here are coherent. We are just watching a train wreck. Slow motion at first (2000-2016), accelerating (2016-2020) and now derailing and crashing (2020-present).

    What is the surprise? You are have been pre-warned a long time

    • adonis says:

      so tru CTG the brick wall is approaching at my work i am a tramdriver we were told we would have 9 months off because 4 overpasses had to be built in 2024 now we have been told its happening in 2025 it has moved more forward cost has gone up they will never be built I am looking forward to the coming blackouts the lockdowns were wonderful it was magic driving up and down the track with no one on board i am looking forward to the next lockdown it is so peaceful driving the tram during the lockdowns.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      sure I heard about “Peak Oil” in the early 2000s and found TOD The Oil Drum not long after.

      so almost 20 years now for me, tempus fugit.

      around 2005ish it was the peak oil “plateau” and then funny enough the plateau became a “rising plateau” which then became too ironic and all plateau talk was abandoned.

      so some/many were WRONG about 20 years ago, and it’s been mostly bAU since.

      extending that thought to these present times, there is a good chance that some/many will be WRONG again.

      as globalization weakens and heads for failure, regionalization will take over next.

      the most resource rich region in the world is USA/Canada.

      this region and the Russian region could wobble along with bAU until 2070ish.

      the Oil Doomers were WRONG in 2005, and there’s a good chance that some/many will be WRONG from now until 2040ish at least.

      I’m 65ish, I may not see 2040, how old are you?

      don’t be “surprised” if your timeline is much SLOOOOOWER than you are guessing.

      or is it all a simulation anyway? 😉

      • Ed says:

        The two largest resource nations are natural allies. US/Canada and Russia should join together.

        • Cromagnon says:

          I always thought that would happen ultimately. I posted musings to that effect back on TOD in 2007. It may still well happen….comparable genetics and mindset may well drive it thus.

      • Peaker says:

        A simulation of what…?

        • Cromagnon says:

          The reality construct you call “the world and the universe”

          Its not what you and I think it is.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Agree, nothing ASPO nor others proposed seems to have worked.

        Agree for interim resources, space is the real resource store house and perhaps,

        Space is the place for general AI, it is cold, 2.7 kelvin which makes for easy superconductivity as well as plenty of metals.

        But, wait, would that make us even more part of the fabric of the universe? If we do that, how do we communicate with our machines in space? Almost sounds like gods from above.

        What if someone got there first? How would one describe that entity?

        Problem is communication, thinking will be locally very fast, solar system very slow, speed of light problem.

        Starship is the answer, TINA.

        Dennis L.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Yep – everyone knew this was coming … and now that it’s at the doorstep… OFWers are behaving like sissies.. cowards… DelusiSTANIS.

      Let me repeat – there is no way out of this. Get ready to die.

      The best you can hope for is a good death .. one without suffering.. ideally no rape…

  37. Agamemnon says:

    The Carrington Event of 1859 Disrupted Telegraph Lines. A “Miyake Event” Would Be Far Worse
    We don’t know what causes Miyake events, but these great surges of energy can help us understand the past—while posing a threat to our future.

    • A friend sent me some information yesterday:

      Space Weather News for Sept. 17, 2023

      EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Yesterday, a huge magnetic filament erupted from the sun and hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. Its arrival on Sept. 19th could spark auroras in multiple US states. Full story @

      CME alerts: Sign up for Space Weather Alerts to receive instant text messages when CMEs are about to hit Earth

  38. Mirror on the wall says:

    It is coming?

    Developments are coming with Britain: Major damage to the Russian Kilo-class submarine from the attack in Sevastopol

    The Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol, Crimea on September 13 caused heavy damage to the upgraded Russian Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don.

    Photos released on social media show the extensive damage to the Russian submarine that was hit by British Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

    As can be seen, there is a large hole in the central part of the hull, and the front part is also damaged. The extensive damage casts doubt on whether the Rostov-on-Don submarine can be repaired and returned to service with the Russian Navy.

    At this point we emphasize that Russian submarines of the upgraded Kilo class (alternative name Project 636.3) are considered among the quietest submarines in the world.

    They have a displacement of about 4,000 tons, develop a speed of up to 20 knots, can dive to a depth of 300 meters and have a sailing capacity of 45 days.

    The landing ship “Minsk” was also destroyed by the attack, which has also suffered damage that is difficult to repair.

    Russian media are preparing the ground for strikes against British targets. Where and when remains to be seen.

    • adonis says:

      just be careful finite worlders this could be untrue of attacks world war 3 is another possibility for the elders to micro-manage our economy the technology exists for such a thing to occur

    • Zemi says:

      “Russian media are preparing the ground for strikes against British targets. Where and when remains to be seen.”

      And our Lucy-MOTW is eager to help, where possible. She’s the anti-British Brit, and then some. She worships the Munchkin alliance (little Putin and little Kim) and is said to be rather short of stature herself by those who know her.

      “There were three in the bed and the little one said, ‘Roll over! Roll over!’

      So they all rolled over and one fell out.

      There were two in the bed and the little one said, ‘Roll over! Roll over!’ ”

      Way to go, Lucy!

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        What suits me just fine is what the British state itself wants. Long may the UK economy continue to expand and with everything that goes with that. And then we will see who is left standing.

        I truly wish the British state every success in its ambitions.


  39. ivanislav says:

    Well well, wifi signals are sufficient for 3d imaging at moderate resolution:

    • JMS says:

      Privacy is so 1994. People under 30 today don’t even know what that word means.
      The only way to have privacy is to disconnect from the Machine. Which for many of us would mean disconnecting from a paid job (and soon even from the possibility of having a bank account)
      Which means the price of privacy is self-sufficiency, ie, an impossibility.
      So there’s no way out, whoever lives by the machine, dies by the machine.

      • moss says:

        It certainly is if you “allow” ZH on your devices.
        It’s my recollection that the last time I opened it and found their format/scripting changes and was too apalled at what the insecurities they were demanding
        My tech friends tell me resistence is useless; they already know absolutely everything about everybody already
        With celtic stubborness I dislike being a soft target

        what’s the strategy?

        • JMS says:

          I’m afraid I don’t know what’s ZH, but I do know that desktop PCs have ears, and that smartphones have that and eyes too. Which means now we are as perfectly watched as Mr. Winston Smith.

          Within civilization there’s no place to hide.
          And outside of it (of IT) there’s no means of subsistance (except if you are currently hunter-gathering).
          IOW, a dilemma that can only be resolved by catastrophe.

  40. Koen Vandewalle says:

    Dear Gail, what do you think about the decline of major construction companies in China?

    Potentially in connection with the decreasing economic growth rates of that country?

    Building construction that requires a lot of steel and concrete appears to be a significant consumer of fossil energy.

    To convince one and a half billion people that they should consume less and anticipate a modest future, opening a front, such as with Taiwan, seems like a plausible strategy.

    • Vern Baker says:

      Country Garden missed a bond payment today. The wider concern is that 70% of Chinese savings are in real estate. They drank the coolaid, based their empire on private property ownership… and now it very much appears it is all about to unravel.

    • I think that the decline in the major construction companies in China was pretty much inevitable because China started running short of the materials needed to build the high rises they were building for people. Also, other demands for coal were depleting the mines, especially the nearby ones.

      When a country has internal problems, a common way of trying to fix the problem is to create a war in a different direction. Stirring up problems associated with Taiwan would seem to be helpful in this regard. The war can increase employment. It can be an excuse to borrow money. It can fill up the front page of newspapers with hopeful stories. And it is a new cause that the country can perhaps be successful in.

  41. I have studied the 1912 Sears catalog in detail.

    Most people could play some kind of instrument, since phonograph was quite expensive. Harmonica, accordions and melodions, not usually used nowdays, were quite common. The Japanese made a smaller melodion, called Melodica, which was powered by breath.

    Which will be handy when electric power will be intermittent.

  42. MikeJones says:

    Metal Scraps were Used İnstead of Money in Bronze Age Europe
    This study indicates that something like our modern-day “global economy” emerged across Western Eurasia from common people’s daily scrap-for-cash trading around 1000 years before the rise of classical civilizations. The results were published in the Journal of Archaeological Science.

    According to excavations throughout Central Europe, people started splitting metal artifacts into smaller fragments in Bronze Age Europe in the early second millennium BC. Beginning about the year 1,300 BC, the practice became noticeably more common during the Late Bronze Period. Every type of metal piece, including tools, swords, axes, clothing, small personal pieces, and metal casting waste materials, may be fragmented.
    Nicola Ialongo of the University of Göttingen and Giancarlo Lago of the Sapienza University of Rome analyzed and weighed over 2,500 metal fragments recovered from Bronze Age excavation sites in Italy, Germany, and Poland to test their hypothesis that these small fragments may have been used as currency. These metal fragments were included in the heaps of objects commonly found in settlements dating to the end of the 2nd millennium BC.
    After weighing the metals, archaeologists used statistical models to make comparisons. The findings of this approach were significant and remarkable, showing that these objects were multiples of normal weight dimensions. It’s impossible to dismiss the fact that one thing weighs twice as much as another, or three times as much as another, or half as much as another, and so on.

    Furthermore, the standard dimensions against which they were matched were not chosen at random. They corresponded precisely to the weights of balance weights in use throughout Europe throughout those ancient times.
    Scales were built using these balance weights. It is now clear that such scales were used to measure bronze metal fragments retrieved from Late Bronze Age dig sites, among other things. This was required to ensure that they were sliced to the correct size and measured the correct quantity before being circulated as “coins.”

    It’s worth noting that Late Bronze Age Europeans weren’t the first to use metal as currency. Beginning in the early third millennium BC, the ancient Mesopotamians used silver sticks for the same purpose.

    The spread of the use of metallic scraps for cash happened against the background of the formation of a global market in Western Eurasia. “There was nothing ‘primitive’ about pre-coinage money, as money before coins performed exactly the same functions that modern money does now,” explains Dr. Nicola Ialongo at the University of Göttingen’s Institute for Prehistory and Early History.

    Interesting discovery….suppose we may revert back to it soon ourselves

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Excellent. Thanks.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Metals are useful. Brass for example is now very expensive and it is heavy so it is expensive to ship.

      Moving things has become a significant part of the final price, 10-15% is not unusual, smaller amounts have higher percentages of total cost as shipping expense.

      Steel would seem like a no brainer, it is damn expensive and long pieces are difficult to ship, generally Fed Ex ground. If long/heavy need a loading dock or a fork lift.

      Dennis L.

    • Interesting!

      Of course, there have to be things to buy with the coinage. And the “right” people need to have the coins. If workers cannot get the coins because they are all being held by old folks based on prior investments they made, there will be a real problem.

      • Pedro says:

        Existing coins will work better than bits of metal, at least initially.
        The survivors of the end of BAU will have to resort to barter to exchange anything with other locals. But barter is clumsy.

        If my neighbour is willing to exchange a couple of kilos of potatoes, he may not want an axe or a pair old boots that you are willing to ‘spend’, and anyway the value of goods available is not equal, so how is ‘change’ to be given.

        Coins are recognised by everyone for their durability, relative value to each other, hard to forge etc.
        Value of goods will be determined by supply and demand as usual. ” Eggs are now 80 cents each” is easier to deal with than “eggs are now two bits of brass or twenty for a good frypan”.

        Even though ‘your government’ will probably decree them illegal and require they be surrendered, it’s likely that quite a few will still be around, down the back of the sofa etc,
        or in that old fruit jar in grandmas junk.

        So, you could offer your neighbor some coins for the potatoes,
        and he would probably accept, knowing that he now has a flexible means of exchange, so can buy some eggs, or save to buy a shovel or whatever.

        So maybe, it’s a good idea to just keep your small change, and maybe the government will let you keep it, or somehow the government doesn’t seem to be operating anymore, who knows what’s in store?

        • Hubbs says:

          I have always thought that silver, maybe even copper coins, possibly small denominations of gold will make a comeback after a brief reintroduction of barter once we fall back into smaller communities in a grand reset.
          But a global gold standard being “recognized” by sovereign governments? Hmmmph. Hardly. The BRICS summit last month was all hot air. No one country is going to trust the other’s claims of a fractionally gold backed “fiat.”

          But it will be interesting to see how far these states in US go with accepting gold and silver. Texas talks tough with its planned gold repository. But who’s going to pay in gold and silver when they’ve got fiat cash to trash?

          What is it, Gresham’s Law? Bad money drives out good?

  43. i1 says:

    Forgive me if this has been posted already.

    “Will “Climate Stakeholders” Engineer an Economic Depression to Save the Planet From Global Warming”

    (Substituting “depletion” for “global warming” works as well).

    This looks interesting –

    • Dennis L. says:

      What if the climate activists are correct? What is the price of a spaceship which holds oxygen and does not heat up to the point where the travelers are baked alive? Is the last an exaggeration? What would be the death toll in some of the southern US if air conditioners were shut down? How many buildings in Atlanta are coolable without nuclear power?

      Is there a way to win this bet? If the bet goes against us, isn’t that a 100% loss? If Starship works, something is better odds than nothing.

      We can’t change the over all trend, but if the lifeboat is sinking someone adding additional water is not helping. If the rescue ship is coming, how much do you wish to make to bet on sinking five minutes before rescue arrives?

      Dennis L.

      • Tim Groves says:

        If the climate activists prove to be correct, then they would be correct for irrational reasons.

        Now, consider this? A creative person with a fertile imagination could think up literally a hundred scenarios in which the biosphere would be doomed if we keep doing this or we don’t do that.

        And these scenarios don’t have to have a shred of scientific validity backing them up. They merely have to sound superficially plausible to the ignorant normies who believe they are smart because they can parrot what they heard on the nine o’clock news—plausible enough to serve as a pretext for whatever rules the masters want to make.

        A massive globalized campaign, given the OK by “The EldersTM” and conducted by all the usual persuaders and enforcers, could make the majority of the population comply with all sorts of rules, because the majority of people a normies, and normies are conformists and sheep who will always do what they’re told if they are told persuasively enough and often enough.

        They will “clap for carers” while the carers are murdering granny and grandad in their hospital beds with their end of care protocols.

        Watch and listen to the normies, and weep!
        I rest my case.

      • JesseJames says:

        Dennis and Keith, I present exhibit 1 on why all your plans for space commercialization will fail.

        This does not mean I am against the principal of developing space, but being an engineer, I am realist. I have developed space modules currently orbiting earth, and also heading for Jupiter. The cost vastly exceeds commercial profitability.

        The only possibility is space robots with AI capability to actually do remote work. Of course AI is another item we can disagree on. I don’t think AI really exists….only fast computers with vast datasets to cull information from. Add a couple of SW modules to interpret queries, to scan the datasets, and then to formulate an answer is not AI…it is a computer program.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Yes we must urgently stop klimax change for Leo’s sake … he’s about to lose all his $$$ cuz he built this at sea level

  44. Ron Unz made several articles about Chinese selective breeding before genetics were born

    When resources dwindle, social darwinism becomes the norm.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      They are talking about a meritocratic and highly dynamic system rather than the rigid sort of caste that you usually promote.

      We would need statistical models to evaluate the relative merits of the two approaches. I am not going to take a dogmatic stance on that.

      In terms of IQ outcomes the Chinese model seems to have worked best.

      The historical Indian model seems to be more rigid.

      Of course both have relatively large populations so a small percentage toward the upper IQ is still a lot of people. Likely Chinese and Indian migration does somewhat select for relatively higher IQ persons.

    • Dennis L. says:

      kul, that has always been the case, best men get the best women, women chose. The pill is supposed to have made women less selective which would be consistent with declining IQ scores, etc.

      Dennis L.

      • Keith Henson says:

        “The pill ”

        The pill has not been around long enough to cause genetic selection yet. See the tame Russian foxes where it took 8 generations of rigorous selection to make noticeable changes.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Of course it has, some fifty years, two generations. That one is obvious.

          And of course, there is “bing.”
          “Yes, there are studies that suggest that hormonal birth control can affect mate selection and attraction. According to a study published in the journal “Trends in Ecology & Evolution,” women on the pill may be more likely to choose partners who are less genetically compatible with them 1. Another study found that women on hormonal birth control may preferentially select a mate based more on financial stability than attraction 2. However, it is important to note that these studies are not conclusive and more research is needed to fully understand the effects of hormonal birth control on mate selection.”

          We are biology, the fabric of the universe has designed us for a given environment. It is not nice to fool with mother nature.

          FWIW, I always chose the conservative answers from “bing.”

          So there you have it, from an expert. What could go wrong?


          You might want to talk with some farmers and their breeding techniques. Going backward is much easier than going forward, just saying.

          Dennis L.

        • the pill is for contraception

          it has nothing to do with a woman selecting the best breeding companion to start and raise a family

          • Jane says:

            You seem to totally lack imagination!!

          • Tim Groves says:

            Kul observes that the Chinese practice selective breeding, or “weeding” of humans. An to be sure, quite a bit of that went on and probably still does in China and elsewhere.
            Some newborns get the warm blankets and the incubator while others get left out in the cold.

            Mirror picks up on that and reasonably observes that “Likely Chinese and Indian migration (to the West?) does somewhat select for relatively higher IQ persons.” I interpret this to mean that people who migrate in search of better economic opportunities or social situations tend to have higher IQs than those who stay home. This was a point Issac Asimov made tongue in cheek while boasting about being smart enough to have moved from Russia to the US at the age of three. I believe Robert Heinlein may have noted something similar, although he may have been referring more to survival skills in general, but I’m not going to try to check that this morning.

            Dennis observes that “The pill is supposed to have made women less selective which would be consistent with declining IQ scores.”

            That’s an interesting conjecture, although I would put recently declining IQ scores down to feeding, such what people watch on TV and what food companies put into the Doritos. And then there are the dozens and dozens of “safe and effectiveTM” jabs most kids in the US are forced to endure.

            Keith points out that “the pill has not been around long enough to cause genetic selection yet.”

            To this, I must say, that depends on what you mean by genetic selection. By one concise definition, genetic selection is the process of choosing individuals with desired traits or characteristics to be parents of the next generation in order to propagate those traits in a population. While the results may not be in yet, as Keith rightly alludes to, the process itself could be well and truly underway as long as people are becoming less selective when it comes to parenting partners.

            The pill needn’t be involved the process of people becoming less selective in this respect, though. The spread of the custom of allowing people to choose their own marriage/parenting partners rather than having their families determine that for them by itself is bound to lead to a different set of selection criteria.

            Lastly, Norman pops up to tell us “the pill is for contraception”.

            What Norman fails to note is that sex with contraception is a bit like tightrope walking with a net beneath you. It leads you to take more risks than you might have done had you known that one slip could have life-altering consequences. The pill works most of the time, but not always. For instance, my younger brother’s conception was not planned. Although once it happened, we loved him just the same as if he’d been wanted all along.

            • Keith Henson says:

              About 15 years ago Gregory Clark wrote a paper that was never published, perhaps because it was politically incorrect. Might be considered anti woke today. In any case, he found that the wealthy had twice as many surviving children as the poor over a 400 year period of time that ended about 1800. This was about as intense a selection and as many generations as the selection applied to the tame Russian foxes. It selected for whatever psychological traits are involved in becoming wealthy,

              At the end of the article he mentions that much the same happened in China and while the selection may not have been as intense, it went on longer. Search for Genetically capitalist if you want to read it. It’s one of the most impressive papers I read in the last 20 years.

            • i would have thought that logic so simplistic as to need no debate

              the wealthy can afford to feed their kids.

              at the start of WW1, when medical assessment for military service first came in, upper and lower class recruits were found to have a 6” height difference.
              —–better food and living environment,

              parental traits are bound to be passed on

              doctors tend to beget doctors—musicians… musicians etc

              but the traits run out over time.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Yes, I’m familiar with that paper.

              However, selection pressures change with the times. And the times have changed numerous times in the past 400 years, and even more in the past 4,000.

              So it is logical to suppose that the psychological traits that are involved in becoming wealthy have changed too.

              At some times, valor, courage, and bravery can make one wealthy. At other times, discretion is the better part of valor. At some times, scrupulous honesty. At others, dishonesty. At times, cutthroat competitive instincts. At others, nurturing cooperative instincts……

              How is a genome supposed to adjust to all these differing selection pressures?

              As far as I know, my family roots in all directions have been proletarian and peasant, with no aristocrats or fabulously well-to-do ancestors in the crypt.

              According to Clark’s theories, I really shouldn’t be here at all. My family must have lacked all the necessary traits for becoming wealthy, and we’ve been up against growing numbers who must have had those traits but who nonetheless dropped out of the affluent layers of society due to the fact that there is not always room at the top after all.

              There are a lot of Just So Stories told about genetics, breeding, and evolution in general. “Why did we survive? Because we were the fittest to survive. How we know were were the fittest to survive? Because we survived.”

              If this is “science, laddie,” explain to me how the British upper classes managed to produce so many twits.

            • Tim

              you must resist these ”aha” moments

              Most of the OFW readership would accept that no contraception method is 100%—foolishly again, i took that as read.

              None of my kids were ”planned”—it just seemed a good idea at the time, Se x is like that, mostly. It’s how the human race propagates itself.

              in more primitive times, many selection methods were used, according to the society in which one lived.

              it was accepted that not every birth was viable.

              Well within my own living memory, a doctor or midwife would quietly allow a malformed child to slip away, for no better reason than the burden it would put on the family.
              In the same way that the elderly were dispatched to relieve suffering.

              Now, they see it as a challenge to medical skill to do the opposite, no matter what the cost .

            • Keith Henson says:

              “is not always room at the top after all.”

              Clark talks about that as downward social mobility. It’s how the genes of the wealthy spread to the rest of the population.

  45. i1 says:

    The US five year note reached a 16 year high this morning @ 4.483%. That’s a yield last seen in October of 2007, just as wtic began it’s historic spike past $140. Unfortunately the dow rolled over at that time as well.

    • With high inflation, investors expect higher interest rates so that net of inflation, yields come out to be positive.

      • Dennis L. says:

        SGS is showing the 1990 based index at about +7.5%, so CD’s should make 8% with a risk premium. Know where I can find some of those?

        Dennis L.

Comments are closed.