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In the US, companies that want to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals need to get advance approval for their plans from the US Department of Energy. There was a recent news item saying, “Biden pauses LNG export approvals under pressure from climate activists.” After looking into the situation, I 100% agree with Biden’s decision. There is no sense in the US adding more approvals for added LNG capacity at this time. This is the case, completely apart from climate considerations.
When looking into the situation, I found that the US already has a huge amount of LNG export capacity approved but not yet under construction. The likely roadblock is the need for debt financing. One obstacle is the need to find investors willing to make very long commitments–as long as 25 years, considering the time to build the LNG plants, plus the time that they are expected to be in operation. Issues that could be expected to get in the way of long-term investment would include:
- Today’s relatively high interest rates.
- Today’s low US natural gas prices (Henry Hub natural gas price is currently $1.64 per million Btus, a near-record low), discouraging investment in natural gas extraction.
- The possibility that US oil and natural gas extraction from shale formations will reach limits within the next 25 years.
- The possibility that overseas buyers will not be able to afford exported LNG at the prices needed to make extraction profitable. For example, a selling price of $25 per million Btus would probably greatly reduce the quantity of LNG that could be sold in the EU.
- The possibility of construction delays caused by broken supply lines.
- The possibility of fires causing significant down-time in operating facilities.
- Even if natural gas is available for export, and even if LNG export facilities are built, there is the possibility that the rest of the system, including specialized LNG transport ships, may not be available in sufficient quantities.
In this post, I will try to give some background on this issue.
[1] Many people seem to believe that the US can easily ramp up natural gas production for export if it chooses to do so.
There seems to be a common belief that the US has an almost unlimited supply of oil. Natural gas is produced together with oil, so a corollary to the high supply of oil is that the US has an almost unlimited supply of natural gas.
At the same time, there are many parts of the world with an inadequate supply of natural gas. Many of these countries are trying to add wind and solar power generation. Natural gas is very helpful for balancing wind and solar because electricity production from natural gas can be ramped up and down very quickly, filling in when intermittent sources of supply are not available.
The European Union (EU) is one area that has very inadequate natural gas supply (Figure 1). The EU is also known for its use of wind and solar power, so it needs natural gas for its balancing ability.
If it is true that the US has a huge supply of US natural gas, all that would seem to be needed to solve the EU’s wind and solar balancing problem is for the US to export natural gas to the EU.
The modern way of exporting natural gas seems to be as LNG, transported by specialized ships at a very low temperature (about – 260°F (-161.5°C)). It appears that all that the US needs to do is to ramp up its natural gas production, and with it, its LNG export infrastructure.
[2] Natural gas prices vary widely around the world. US prices are much lower than elsewhere. These differences would also seem to support building more LNG export facilities.
Figure 2 shows that US natural gas prices are much lower than elsewhere. This has especially been the case since 2008 when the shale boom began, making it look as if the US can easily export natural gas if it likes. Even with the cost of shipping included, it looks as if consumers in the EU and Japan might find US LNG attractive in price.
[3] Natural gas tends to be cheap to extract but getting it to the customer and storing it until the right time of year is an expensive headache.
Natural gas is a fuel that is disproportionately used in winter to heat homes and businesses. This heat can be provided by burning the natural gas directly, or it can be provided by first burning the natural gas to produce electricity, and then using a device, such as a heat pump, to provide heat.
If natural gas can be utilized close to where it is extracted, there tends to be a huge cost advantage over long-distance transport. Clearly, one reason is that utilization near the point of extraction reduces transit costs. Also, empty gas caverns that can be used for storage are often available near the point of extraction. This storage approach is much less expensive than building specialized tanks for storage. These cost advantages are one reason why US natural gas prices shown on Figure 2 are much lower than those in the EU and Japan.
[4] Low natural gas prices in the US are now well “baked into the system.”
With natural gas prices remaining low for around the past 16 years, individuals and businesses have adjusted their consumption patterns based on the assumption that an abundant supply of inexpensive natural gas will be available permanently. US natural gas production has approximately doubled since its low point in 2005, and consumption has almost kept up.
Many changes have taken place since gas prices fell. The US electrical system has significantly reduced its reliance on coal and instead increased its utilization of natural gas. People have built oversized homes based on the assumption that cheap natural gas will be available to heat them. Businesses have built factories in the US under the assumption that electricity costs of the US will continue to be low compared to those in Europe, Japan, and many other parts of the world, indirectly because of the US’s inexpensive supply of natural gas.
These low electricity and natural gas prices give the US a competitive advantage in making goods for export. With the shift away from coal for electricity production, the US can now say that it has reduced the carbon intensity of its electricity. Politicians like the competitive advantage for the US as well as the lower carbon intensity. Few of them would vote to go back to earlier ways, even if it was possible to do so.
[5] Natural gas tends to be utilized close to where it is produced. The early form of natural gas export was by pipeline. In recent years, LNG exports have increased.
Figure 4 shows that, consistently, about 75% of natural gas is used in the region where it is extracted. This happens because natural gas tends to be inexpensive close to the point of extraction. The use of inexpensive resources helps make an economy competitive in the world market, making them attractive for local use.
Pipeline trade tends to be inexpensive if the distance is short. The disadvantage is that pipeline gas tends to be inflexible; prices are often locked in for long periods. Pipelines can be a disadvantage if they pass through another county. The country allowing transit will likely want to make a charge for this service; this can lead to conflict. Pipelines can easily be blown up if countries start fighting with each other.
LNG is the newer approach to exporting natural gas. Its advantage is its flexibility; its disadvantage tends to be its higher cost when the entire cost of the operation is considered. There need to be export facilities where the natural gas is chilled and loaded into specialized tankers. Investors, quite possibly from another country, need to invest in the specialized tankers used to transport the LNG. At the other end, there is the need for regasification plants and for gas pipelines to the facilities where the gas is to be utilized.
Recouping the total cost of the system can be a problem with LNG. If prices are set under long-term contracts pegged to the price of oil, as has been the case between Japan and Russia, advantageous prices for the producers can be obtained. (Note the high prices Japan has been paying in Figure 2.) Of course, with long-term contracts, the flexibility of the system is lost.
In some years, there has been more LNG capacity than required in Europe. Exporters without long-term contracts started selling natural gas at spot prices, depending upon the balance between supply and demand at the time of the sale. (Notice the lower natural gas prices for Europe in Figure 2). It is not clear to me that investors can earn enough on their investments, if they are forced to depend on spot prices, which can easily fall too low if there is excess supply.
On the other hand, if the LNG market gets tight, as it did in 2022, spot prices can jump very high, making it difficult for LNG buyers to find affordable supply.
[6] An analysis by the EIA indicates that the US already has a great deal of LNG export capacity at some stage of development.
The most recent EIA analysis of LNG capacity in the process of being developed is shown at this link.
The above analysis was performed using data as of the end of 2022. It shows that at that time, the amount of liquefaction capacity was
- 37.0 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d), considering existing, under-construction and approved liquefaction capacity.
- 18.7 Bcf/d, considering existing and under-construction liquefaction capacity.
More recent information is also available. A release dated January 26, 2024, by the Department of Energy says,
The United States is the global leader in LNG exports with 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in current operating capacity and 48 Bcf/d in total authorizations approved by DOE to date, over three times our current export capacity.
This quote seems to imply that the total authorizations increased from 37.0 Bcf/d to 48 Bcf/d, based on an unpublished, more recent, analysis.
The 14 Bcf/d in current operating capacity is far above recent LNG export amounts. The actual quantity of US LNG produced in 2022 was 10.8 Bcf/d based on the data underlying Figure 5. Based on data through November 2023, I would estimate that amount of LNG produced in 2023 amounted to about 11.7 Bcf/d. These comparisons suggest that the actual amount of LNG produced may lag significantly below the stated export capacity.
If we compare the total exports authorized of 48 Bcf/d to the actual production amount (about 11.7 Bcf/d for 2023), the ratio is over 4, implying a very high amount of authorized additional LNG production capacity.
[7] The EIA model shown in Figure 5 indicates that several conditions need to hold for LNG exports to ramp up substantially.
(a) Figure 5 indicates that for NGL exports to increase significantly, both oil and natural gas prices need to be high. With low oil and low natural gas prices, exports do not increase much at all, regardless of the infrastructure built. (As I noted in the introduction, US natural gas prices are now very low. World oil prices are not very high, either. Thus, the model indicates that not much ramping up in NGL exports should be expected, even if more export capacity is added.)
(b) To enable export of the maximum amount of LNG overseas, “Fast Builds” of the rest of the infrastructure also needs to be high. In other words, there must be rapid growth in the number of LNG transport carriers and in receiving facilities for the exported LNG.
(c) The fact that the gray shaded area (indicating the scenarios the modelers thought likely) does not extend to the Fast Builds scenario means that the modelers consider this scenario unlikely. Even if infrastructure is built on this end, other parts of the system likely won’t be in place.
(d) Hidden in the assumptions is the fact that the citizens at the receiving end of the LNG must be able to afford electricity made with high-priced natural gas and products such as fertilizer, made with high-priced natural gas. If citizens at the receiving end cut way back on their use of natural gas (by not heating their homes as much, or by doing less manufacturing using electricity, or by making less fertilizer with natural gas), export prices are likely to fall.
[8] The reason why oil prices need to be high for high LNG exports is because much of the natural gas extracted is produced at the same time as oil.
If oil prices fall too low, US production of oil from shale is likely to drop (as it did in 2020), and with it the production of natural gas. With low oil prices, US natural gas extraction is also likely to lag. In this scenario, the natural gas necessary to support the hoped-for rise in natural gas exports won’t be available.
With both high oil prices and high US natural gas prices, consumers in the EU and elsewhere will have an especially difficult time affording the high cost of imported natural gas from the US. The problem is that if natural gas costs are already high before all of the cost of processing it to make LNG and shipping it long distance are incorporated, its cost will be doubly high for buyers in the EU (and elsewhere). Furthermore, the budgets of EU consumers will already be stretched by high oil prices, making high-cost LNG even more unaffordable.
[9] People believe that fossil fuels can rise arbitrarily high, but this is not true. Unaffordably high prices are the limiting factor for LNG exports.
Farmers are particularly strongly impacted by high oil and natural gas prices. High oil prices tend to make the cost of the diesel used to run farm equipment very high. High natural gas prices tend to make ammonia fertilizer very expensive. If both oil and natural gas prices are very high, the combination will tend to lead to very high-cost food. Citizens generally get very unhappy about very high-cost food. Farmers tend to protest, as farmers in Europe have done recently, because it becomes impossible for them to pass their high costs on to consumers.
There are clearly many other parts of the economy affected by high oil and natural gas prices. With high natural gas prices, electricity prices tend to be high. Families find their budgets stretched because of the high cost of both home heating and transportation. Food costs are likely to be high also. Economies tend to be pushed into recession by high oil and natural gas prices.
[10] A wise approach would be to go slowly in building LNG export capacity.
If excess LNG export capacity is built, those building the liquefaction plants will find the return on their investment very low.
In a self-organizing system, new technology is usually slowly adopted. Investors see a niche that appears to be profitable and build a little at a time. They wouldn’t try to put a huge amount of LNG export capacity in place without making certain that a little bit works. This same approach is used by manufacturers trying any new technology; they start on a small scale and then gradually scale up the process.
The US has already approved a very substantial amount of future LNG liquefaction capacity. It seems to me that there is a need to pause the acceptance of new applications for a while to see whether the many LNG facilities in the queue can actually be built and can sell the LNG they produce profitably. Perhaps profitable new LNG plants can only be built if firm long-term contracts at quite high prices can be signed.
Going slowly would seem to be an appropriate approach for now.
I just put Cloud, AI, etc, in perspective to Natural Gas.
https://imgur.com/a/qAoRqlo
US data storage growth is tightly related to natural gas, natural gas being one of the main sources for electrical generation in US. Notice the growth of Natural Gas production and the start of Cloud.
Interesting!
History does not always a =dvance.
The Grey Enlightenment guy, who appears to be from Turkey, says stasis was the norm, and Peter Turchin is wrong – things can remain steady for a long time.
However, history sometimes regresses.
The late Dr. Robert Firth from Oxford had said that after Waterloo “Europe was saved!”
However he did not say what Europe was saved from.
Europe was saved from progress, advance and reaching newer dimensions, while those who didn’t like how things were going in Europe emigrated to USA en masse, advancing it.
The restored ancien regime, beloved by Kissinger, proved to be unable to meet the needs which arose after things changed, and it only made Europe lose half a century.
After Waterloo, there are not much to talk about Europe until the unification of Italy in 1860s. There were some wars and revolutions, but they all proved to be quite inconsequential after 150+ years, so are hardly remembered now.
The Victory of the Hordes, now getting closer, will end civilization. It will make the world back to the days of Eastern Despotism. Dynastiesk palace politics and all that, and no real advance of civilization like China which was the same in 1911 as 200 BCE when the Imperial System was fully established.
While I think it quite unwise
The dead and gone to ventriloquize
Perhaps the late Dr. Firth
A man of considerable mirth
And, judging from his photos, girth
Might not be rattling in his grave
Or ranting in a ghostly rave
If I were to state his view to be
Based on his grasp of history
That what Europe was saved from in 1815
Was what it had evolved into by 2015
A single Eurostate, from the Algarve to the Vistula Fens
Managed by bureaucrats with pens
And ruled by women—mother hens—
Where milk and beer are sold in litres
Roadmaps are marked in kilometres
And honour, loyalty, and religion
Are scorned and treated with derision.
I think he would agree with me
that Europe is no longer free.
Great stuff Tim!
Looking forward to more contributions in this style.
The Grey Enlightenment guy, who appears to be from Turkey, says stasis was the norm
Slow decline, not stasis. No such thing as stasis for economies.
The Victory of the Hordes, now getting closer, will end civilization.
Civilisation ends itself. The hordes enter after the collapse, just like in the 400s AD.
Sorry, below, about Hovhannisian, I intended to say “Accelerator”.
But the famed “Russian” science was not really conducted by actual Russians, which is like USA where science was NOT really conducted by those who were born in USA.
Not punishing the banksters back in 2008 was justified in a utilitarian way.
The resource grab by today’s winners, with leaving nothing for the rest and making most of the non-elites in a desperate situation, is justified in a utilitarian way.
Today’s elites are the only people who might have a potential to reach type I civ, while the denizens of the so-called Brics, i.e . China and its stooges, don’t have any chances to reach the next level of civ.
So it is justifiable to impoverish 99.9% of the world’s pop, in order to reach the next dimension of civilization.
The countries of Poland and Czechoslovakia were NOT worth the price for giving up the resources of what is now called Ukraine, but Woody Wilson, thinking that USA’s resources were infinite, made the stupid choice of bartering everything from Narva to Yuzovka, now called Donetsk, so the Czechs and Poles could have their own countries which amounted to, I have to say, nothing.
SO these resources fell to people who no longer had any potential to reach the next level of civ since the Russian Revolution killed off all the talents. Name any famous “Russian” scientific figure born after 1917. They even had to put an Armenian, Kevork Hovhannisian, as a Russian Yuri Ogannesson, to lead their superconductor research.
If the so-called Rules Based Order fails this war for resource domination, only barbarism awaits.
Why punish the banksters? they were doing what the Fed told them … and preventing collapse of BAU
In this scenario, that of conflict; it’s a Scorched Earth either way.
No human has the right or power to destroy the planet to save civilisation (or reach a T1C).
Entropy and death put an end to Human delusion.
Everything, even these, have a purpose.
All you can do is choose to wake up, or not.
The meek will inherit, (but only for their allotted time), which is already decided, by, if nothing else, the boundary of said limits above, but take this to heart.
To the truly righteous, come all ill-gotten gains.
So don’t worry about your life, what you should put on or which scifi to believe in, Adonai and Son will flatten all the curves.
USA meddling with countries who want some better standard of living for their own people is justifiable.
The whole global civilization depends upon the ability of USA and its closer allies to extract the world’s resources for almost no cost.
The resources should NOT be used to better the standards of living of these countries, who will NOT advance civilization.
The resource extraction and the pollution therefore stay outside the US.
Seeking Green Utopia, The US And EU Are Quietly Killing Vital Industries
Germany is deindustrializing….poverty awaits the fools who think they are wealthy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/seeking-green-utopia-us-and-eu-are-quietly-killing-vital-industries
If all the news media focuses on is CO2 emissions, it is possible to make deindustrialization sound like just what everyone wants. Of course, people won’t be able to afford to import much of anything from elsewhere.
I think, this is an interesting but difficult article.
The energy supply of especially Germany is currently very limited. There are still working gas pipelines to Russia available and Putin has offered to open them.
If the USA reduces LNG for Germany, pressure for an agreement with Putin could grow. Approval ratings for the German government are on an all-time low. The government tries to compensate this with growing propaganda and authoritarism.
The interests of the USA are apparently to disconnect all ties of Europe to Russia to prepare for a major conflict with Russia and China.
The LNG decisions might thwart above objectives.
If that leads to peace, though, it would be the right decision!
Jan , the current leadership of the West
Joe the demented
Olaf the sausage
Macron the midget
Sunak the poodle
Leyden the puppet .
Is it hopeless or hope less . ?
One point I didn’t make in this article is that the amount of natural gas that Europe needs is huge. It would be very difficult to get anywhere near that amount from the US.
If there is a way that Germany can purchase pipeline natural gas from Russia, Germany would do well to follow up on that approach.
What a nightmare of units and measures Natural Gas has!
Exajoules; million Btu; trillions of cubic metres, billion of cubic feet;
and LNG gets different measures again, million metric tonnes and millions of cubic metres …
Maybe six years ago Shell commissioned the Prelude FLNG, one of the worlds greatest and most expensive floating pieces of engineering. Soon after it was towed from South Korea to NW Australia and installed it broke down and recommissioning was uncertain for quite some time. Since, it appears that it has ceased operation for many months a handful of times on and off, once for a year and most recently restarted late 2023. Operationally, not a marvelous success for the money.
At that time, the concept was gaining traction, to install floating liquification plants above wellhead terminals and from them load LNG carriers. At the importer’s end regasification could take place in either floating or onshore plant. These three stages require astonishingly complex and expensive equipment with long lead times for both construction and financing. When crackers started to be tossed about in Bab-el-Mandeb, the first shipping story I saw was that Qatar was taking the long Cape way round for all its LNG carriers. Prudent.
Looking about online it’s surprised me how little FLNG plant appears to be being planned or currently under construction. Once, it had been pumped as the way of the future. Russia is doing something about them with Yamal in conjunction with the northern route to Asia and the nuclear powered icebreaker fleet.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/resize/belokamenka-towing3-vk-belokamenka51-1000×750.jpg
However, generally, detailed information online as to the global FLNG industry is sparse seems very closely held behind paywalls
Regarding the many units that natural gas is traded in, I have been struck by this as well. Natural gas is something that has historically been a local product. Therefore, reports that have historically been put together use whatever local units are standard. So we end up with Btus, Cubic feet, Cubic meters, and Joules. And we get amounts per day, per month, or per year. And the price units can be different, too.
Natural gas is lost in transit, so there is a net or gross problem.
My guess with FLNG is that it costs too much to build and maintain, compared to what the exported natural gas will sell for. Without consistently higher prices, we will hear nothing about it.
Thanks to Woody Wilson who awarded most of Germany’s resources to Poland, which completely turned them into shit in a very short order
Imagine the leverage Pooty would have with the Germans if he threatened to throttle back a little… he could get them to do just about anything if he threatened that…
“to prepare for a major conflict with Russia and China.”?
Unless ‘policy’ has changed?
“By the time you got to the first Bush administration, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they came out with a national defense policy and strategic policy. What they basically said is that we’re going to have wars against what they called much weaker enemies and these have to be carried out quickly and decisively or else there will be embarrassment—a way of saying that popular reaction is going to set in. And that’s the way it’s been. It’s not pretty, but it’s some kind of constraint.” ?
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/03/noam-chomsky-populist-groundswell-u-s-elections-future-humanity.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
A spokesperson for Allstate told WESH 2 the increase was filed with the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation in 2023 and that a majority of their customers have already experienced the increase.
Amica Mutual Insurance, which covers properties like vacation homes, has proposed a 54.1% increase. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation will hold hearings next week to decide if it’ll approve the rate requests.
“The more storm losses we see, the higher premiums are going to go,” said Mark Friedlander, who is the Florida spokesperson for Insurance Information Institute.
“And it’s not just hurricanes,” Friedlander said. “We’ve had several tornado outbreaks this year during the winter season. Rare.” While other companies may also consider raising their rates, Friedlander said last year, many companies were seeking triple-digit jumps.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/got-the-insurance-blues-auto-and-home-insurance-costs-are-soaring/
As a South Florida resident, it’s worse for many that have a HOA or a Hone Owners Association, that “manage” the community property and buildings.
Usually seen for condominiums and gated community developments with shared amenities like swimming pools, recreation centers, ect …now becoming the normal for many housing developments here for single family housing.
The fees are tracking upwards in addition to homeowners insurance (which is separate) and auto. Years ago HOAs need not be fully vested for future capital expenditures. Recent State legislation passed a law that changed that to require FULLY by 2025. Many here and there are a lot of condominiums are in a state of sticker shock. Many are retirees with fixed income and bought years or decades ago …if they are unable to afford these increase, they will need to sell and move.
We are truly in a black swan event here. Inflation is out of control. Many places are being bought by investors for rental market.
That’s not say new construction is at stand still.iin my city there are multiple high rise developments in the downtown that continue to be approved.
No single family I can see other than upgrades, which are many old homes.
Traffic now at times is at a stand still…when these are completed , what then?
Charles H Smith has written about it all and a few on YouTube too.
I agree with FE, we are F##ked.
Unfortunately, if a person lives in a home, the same phenomenon hits. Older homes need their roofs redone. Their driveway cement needs to be redone. There are big problems with leaks in their basements. All of these things are very expensive.
Roads, bridges and pipelines have similar problems. In growth periods, we see all of the jobs coming from adding new infrastructure. Now, the big issue is keeping decaying infrastructure from falling apart completely.
A coworker bought an older condo a couple of years ago. He had to do improvements to the unit himself that is his property. This in addition to the sharp increase in the HOA fee, property tax, and home owner insurance. He called GEICO because of his rate increase and nothing could be done the agent said, other than sorry to see him go! He was with them for decades. He had one claim for a window repair that was not in any way his fault and they even used that against him.
Possibly the problem of maintenance is more acute in North America. Most house roofs in Europe are clay or concrete tile, natural slate or nowadays synthetic slate.
The UK introduced concrete tiles in the 1920s. Many seem to have lasted 50 or 100 years. I rarely see such a roof being replaced. Greyish-blue slate from Wales usually lasted 100 years, some slates even longer.
The concrete tiles sold now are often quite thin but they should outlast asphalt which I think is widely used for US house roofs. The UK mostly uses asphalt for the roofs of garden sheds!
Pity those in the UK with thatched roofs!
Thatched cottage insurance surges as roofs ruined by miserable weather
Heightened risk and an exodus of insurers are combining to drive up premiums
Tom Haynes, MONEY REPORTER 15 February
Thatched cottages owners face surging insurance bills after a year of extreme wet weather pushed up the cost of cover to a record high.
The average premium for a thatched-roofed home soared by 56pc to almost £2,000, compared to the national average of £208, figures show.
Last year saw Britain battered by storms Agnes, Babet and Ciarán, spooking insurers into raising premiums and forcing several to stop insuring thatched homes altogether.
The average premium for a thatched roofed home was £1,985 in the last three months of 2023, compared to £1,272 the previous year. This was far higher than average premiums for roofs made of slate (£202) and tile (£190), according to data from Compare the Market.
There are roughly 60,000 thatched properties in Britain, of which 75pc are listed buildings, according to Savills the estate agent.
Some have tiled roofs here in South Florida,
Many are placing metal roofs on their homes.
Insurance companies no longer want homes with asphalt more than 10 years old!!
The majority of my brother’s architecture business involves dealing with repairing collapsing government infrastructure… schools… hospitals etc… as well as shopping malls and such… not a whole lot of new builds…
My car insurance increased by 53% and my Florida provider blamed it on “inflation”.
Their bond portfolios are sucking wind.
For 11 consecutive months dating to March of 2023, car insurance has been rising at least 15 percent year-over-year.
For 17 consecutive months dating to September of 2022, car insurance has been rising at least 10 percent year-over-year.
Ain’t that the truth, my car gets older and my insurance premium jumps upwards. The insurance companies care not if you are a decades long policy holder without a claim. Amazing the two majors, Progressive and Geico, still flood the airways with commercials claiming they save you hundreds $$$ for insurance. This is addition to the constant lawyers on TV urging you to call them if you were in an accident to get $$$$$.
We are seeing a major cultural shift in the United States…it won’t be nice
I can’t help but to think the turnoff that’s going to be, for potential new car buyers.
The price of insurance is especially high for EV buyers.
OFMBEVS — guess what that stands for
Not many buyers out there that could afford a new car today..
Owning A New Car Becoming A Fantasy For Millions Of Americans Making Under $100K
https://www.carscoops.com/2024/01/affordability-concerns-push-dream-of-car-ownership-further-out-of-reach-for-americans/PS
The pandemic price bump means that 60% of American households and 82% of individuals can’t really afford the average new vehicle
…Based on this criterion, 60 percent of households and 82 percent of individuals in the U.S. are currently unable to afford a new car. One contributing factor to this affordability challenge is the preference of Americans for pricier crossovers, pickups, and SUVs.
Good stuff!!! Everyone is f789ed
https://mishtalk.com/economics/got-the-insurance-blues-auto-and-home-insurance-costs-are-soaring/
Doubt the very, very rich worry much about it all, Eddie…right now they are profiting by it all. Charles H Smith has documented it all…
I agree, I’m not in that club…so I am fcked.
PS Seems the super rich are following your trail…with doomsday bunkers.
So. they will be too….but later..poor them.
Bunker Buster Bombs!
Fast Eddy has no doomsday bunker…. Fast Eddy sold the last of his firearms and is one week from exiting Ardern’s Hell Hole
Where’s the new base camp at?
2:10 flight to Perth on Tuesday.
Feels like we got out at the height of the property market — neighbour listed a few weeks after us and has not had a single enquiry since early December…. nor have we (other then the purchaser)…
Everyone is believing rates are gonna tumble later this year… I think that’s kinda like believing we are gonna walk on the moon later this year… the pain is only just beginning for property.
Hopefully The Pathogen is what we get later this year… need to rent a place close to a hospital in Perth… for the entertainment value (although The Pathogen is likely to put me in the hospital as much as the vaxxed… cuz Marek’s did)
Every place has its issues. I read in Wikipedia that Perth is doing desalination because it is worried about inadequate rain fall.
Perth is f789ed too… but at least it has some restaurants… and no winter… and stuff to do… unlike godforsaken NZ.
Anyone who can leave … is leaving.
Hi. Email me after you’ve settled in. I love in the next suburb towards the beaches. Mark Williams
Only if you know of a good Gent’s Club — and you can hook me up with some High Grade Bolovian Blow
Carmakers’ EV Enthusiasm Fizzles Out
By Irina Slav – Feb 17, 2024, 6:00 PM CST
Carmakers in the United States have been eager to help advance the EV agenda in the past half a decade or so.
Last year, the Detroit majors warned they could suffer fines of over $10 billion if they fail to comply with the new, stricter fuel efficiency standards.
EV sales last year hit a record, but towards the end of the year, demand began to wane, triggering a price war among carmakers.
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Carmakers in the United States have been eager to help advance the EV agenda in the past half a decade or so. Ford, GM, and all the European and Japanese majors have poured billions into a whole new lineup of all-electric vehicles in anticipation of mass adoption. Now, they’re hitting the brakes.
In July last year, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed new, tighter fuel efficiency standards aimed at encouraging greater EV adoption. The proposal was to lift fuel efficiency requirements from 49 miles per gallon to 58 miles per gallon on a fleet-average basis. The deadline for hitting the new target was set for 2032.
At the time, the car manufacturing industry did not have a lot to say. Then, as the implications of the new regulation began to sink in, they wrote a letter to the administration complaining that they faced billions in fines if they failed to hit the targets proposed by the EPA.
This was the first sign not all was going well between car manufacturers and the Biden administration despite their unanimity on the need to switch from petrol and diesel cars to electric vehicles. The reason it was not going well at the time was the EPA’s plan to revise the way it measured the fuel economy of EVs.
The revision, the regulator said, would encourage carmakers to make more fuel-efficient ICE cars instead of using their EV cars as a license to keep making highly emitting ICE cars.
Related: TC Energy Books Record Earnings amid High Natural Gas Demand
As the EPA put it at the time, “Encouraging adoption of EVs can reduce petroleum consumption but giving too much credit for that adoption can lead to increased net petroleum use because it enables lower fuel economy among conventional vehicles, which represent by far the majority of vehicles sold.”
The debate quieted down towards the end of the year but moved to the fore once again at the beginning of this year, as carmakers began reporting 2023 results—and revealed their EV ventures have been invariably loss-making. That revelation comes amid reports about record high EV sales across the United States last year and upbeat forecasts for an even stronger year in 2024.
Last year, the Detroit majors warned they could suffer fines of over $10 billion if they fail to comply with the new, stricter fuel efficiency standards. They also said the compliance costs would surge from about $550 per vehicle now to over $2,100 if the new requirements are passed. Now, they have come out and said, albeit indirectly, they cannot boost their EV sales as fast as the federal government wants them to.
Last year, sales of EVs represented 8% of the total. The purpose of the new fuel efficiency standard is to mandate such an increase in these sales that by 2032, EVs represent 67% of total car sales. The companies making those EVs are now saying this is pretty much impossible.
This is because despite the generous subsidies that the federal government as well as state governments have allocated for EVs, drawbacks inherent in the current EV technology make them a hard sell—and the subsidies won’t be around forever.
EV sales last year hit a record, but towards the end of the year, demand began to wane, triggering a price war among carmakers. That war has failed to prompt a strong rebound in sales growth, however, at least for the time being. Issues like insufficient charger infrastructure and insurance continue to plague the industry. And the Chinese are coming.
European carmakers sounded the alarm late last year, complaining that unless governments do something to protect them, low-cost Chinese EVs might destroy them. But low-cost Chinese EVs are coming to North America, too, as suggested by a report in the Wall Street Journal that said EV major BYD was looking at building a factory in Mexico.
So, not only are U.S. and international carmakers being pressured into speeding up their switch to an all-EV lineup—a very costly switch—but they are now facing competition from much cheaper Chinese EVs. Of course, the last problem could be dealt with by imposing protectionist tariffs, which are trendy these days but the other problems would be tougher to solve. And the U.S. has a no-tariff trade deal with Mexico.
Charger infrastructure needs to expand really fast to stimulate demand for EVs—but there is not enough private capital willing to risk it, given that the risk-takers would have to wait quite a while to see any returns unless people are literally mandated to buy EVs.
The cars themselves really need to become cheaper, on a no-subsidy basis. For years, EV commentators have been saying that cost parity with Ice cars was just around the corner, and yet even today, it remains around the corner—except in China.
Big Auto, which so recently celebrated the push to an all-electric future, is having second thoughts, and they are not pleasant thoughts. And Biden needs to make them happy again because there are a lot of voters employed by Big Auto.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
another reason to drop rates imagine ev vehicles not being around very soon the elders wont be happy with that maybe the elders can devise a car based on ‘ the flintstones’ yes i can see it niow.
car sharing brah.
when we move into 15 min cities you won’t need personal cars for anything. You can just Uber or have community shuttles.
Sold 0 (ZERO) EVs in 2024 https://www.lexus.co.nz/en/dealers/christchurch.html
EVs are way too expensive, and the charging infrastructure is lacking. It also takes too long to charge, if a person is waiting. It is hard to see how EVs will ever sell well.
The best thing about EVs is that the MOREONS get sucked in by the hype… spend up to 50% more than a petrol model… then they realize they got played big time…
Most of them grin and bear it … cuz they are saving the world so it’s all for a good cause…
It’s just like a vax injured MOREON… get it?
Cept none of is for a good cause … hahaha…. that’s the best thing…
Actually the best thing is a vax injured Tesla owner who is stuck at a charging station in the cold trying to juice his battery… yeah.. f789 yeah… that is definitely the best thing ever
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US shale oil and gas producers pull back after commodity price drop
Dallas Fed posts score of zero for business activity growth in the second quarter among 150 companies in its region
US oil output is still rising, driven by the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico © Bloomberg
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Myles McCormick in New York JUNE 26 2023
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The prolific US shale oil and gas industry is decelerating in the face of weakening commodity prices, suggesting production growth will stall at a time of booming demand.
Evidence of stagnating activity is mounting. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas posted a score of zero for business activity growth in the second quarter among some 150 oil and gas groups in its region — suggesting any expansion had hit a wall. It was the lowest score since 2020, when an oil price crash during the coronavirus pandemic forced operators to slash headcounts and idle drilling rigs.
On Friday, data showed that the number of drilling rigs deployed across the country had fallen for the eighth week in a row, according to Baker Hughes, an oilfield services company.
“Weak oil and gas prices” and “high costs” had “brought growth in oil and gas activity to a standstill in the second quarter”, said Michael Plante, senior research economist and adviser at the Dallas Fed.
US natural gas prices have slid from more than $6 per million British thermal units a year ago to less than $3. Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, sat at about $74 a barrel on Friday, down more than a third since this time last year.
With average producers needing an oil price of $66 a barrel to break even this year, according to HSBC, that is barely enough for many drillers to turn a profit.
American oil output is still rising, however, driven by the prolific Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, and may even hit a record high later this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
But those volumes reflect drilling decisions taken months ago, when oil prices were higher. The fall in drilling activity since then suggests any spurt in output will be shortlived. Shale output requires ever more drilling just to hold output steady, with new production tending to come on line months after wells are fracked.
As the world guzzles increasing volumes of oil, any deterioration in US production growth is all alarming, given that the country has been the main source of added supply in recent years.
Among the issues weighing on the shale patch’s ability to grow are commodity prices, worker shortages, investors’ insistence on returns and growing fears that shale rocks, which made the US the most dynamic producer in the world, are becoming increasingly less productive.
Escalating costs for everything from well casing to pressure pumping equipment are also biting into profit margins.
“Expenses for everything have increased dramatically, while . . . prices remain weak,” said one executive surveyed by the Dallas Fed. “It seems as if the break-even price for oil is in the mid-$70-per-barrel range at this point. I would drill if costs were not so high.”
Some have pointed out that oil companies are able to produce more oil with fewer rigs. But EIA data has shown a sharp decline in new oil production per rig, as output from once prolific basins slides.
“You definitely have mature plays, like the Bakken and the Eagle Ford where it’s kind of run its course,” said Nathan Nemeth, an analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, referring to basins in North Dakota and Texas. “They’re not really the growth engines anymore.”
US oil production, which soared by almost 2mn barrels a day at the height of the shale revolution between 2018 and 2019, is set to grow by just 200,000 b/d over the next 12 months — with practically all of that growth coming from the Permian, as other basins dwindle.
The number of oil and gas drilling rigs in the field last week fell for the eighth week in a row, sliding to 682, leaving the count down by more than 100 in the past six months.
That trend could reverse if oil prices rally in the latter part of this year, say analysts, but with the threat of recession looming over the global economy, that is far from a guaranteed outcome.
“We’re not certain of what to expect,” said one Dallas Fed survey respondent. “The highs were too high. The lows too low.”
Soaring profits put oil and gas ‘supermajors’ in the spotlight | FT Moral Money
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024. All rights reserved.
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We will see if US shale has really hit its peak, or whether there are innovations that allow a little more to be squeezed out.
It is low prices that really push production down, but, even then, new techniques will be tried on a small scale. If prices bounce up again, any new technique will be tried on larger scale. It is really difficult to claim that we have hit the end of the line, because current techniques aren’t working. Maybe new techniques will be found.
As far as I can tell, crude oil plus condensates production is still lower than the last peak in November 2018 (though close to that peak now). This has got to start biting soon, if it hasn’t already.
it’s biting already, in The Periphery and the weaker parts of The Core.
much of Europe will be exiting the club in a decade or two.
this article proves that the high interest rates will probably start dropping now or shale gas will go the way of the dodo interest rates will go negative eventually so the can will get kicked down the road some more soylent green world is a definite possibility for maybe 2050.
excellent summary, the can will get kicked even farther, with a good possibility to 2050.
oh piffle. The article doesn’t prove anything, whatsoever.
sometimes I really wonder about CGT’s remark one day that OFW is full of typing bots
thanks for the post Gail. Looking closely at a LNG post updating some 5yo research
ciao
only a very clever typing bot such as yourself would make an allusion “that OFW is full of typing bots”.
extremely clever.
I think that the Federal Reserve needs to keep interest rates high to defend the USD from inflation. I think that the powers to be right now want to defend the USD because that is what all their assets are denominated in. In a deflationary collapse, if you massively wealthy and your assets lose 90% of value, that remaining 10% could still represent millions. In a hyperinflationary collapse those millions could buy you a loaf of bread maybe. I also don’t see the economist understanding truly how the whole system works together, economist study economics, they don’t understand how important keeping oil supplies are, or think that oil and solar panels and windmills are interchangeable. They are fighting a oil/fossil fuel/goods shortage by creating a dollar shortage, they/we don’t know where interest rates will blow up the banking system. I expect them to keep rasing rates to fight inflation until something blows up in the banking system.
I found this interesting:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/curse-ultra-pasteurization
The Curse of Ultra-Pasturization
This article is by Sally Fallon Morell, one of the founders of the Weston Price Foundation. Price was a dentist born in Canada in the1800s. He traveled the world when people still ate in ways natural to how they lived. His records & stories are amazing!
Most people do not have access to raw milk.
Homogenization is also a curse.
From https://www.westonaprice.org/health-topics/know-your-fats/the-skinny-on-fats/#modern
Most milk sold today in supermarkets is UHT milk—even organic milk is UHT.
That can’t be true. I know what UHT milk tastes like from camping trips and it’s nothing like the normal milk you buy in the supwermarket.
The milk from my supermarket is labeled “Ultra-Pasteurized.” I don’t know whether this is a step down from UHT or not.
My son drinks some of this. The (refrigerated) box I bought recently has an expiration date of April 7, which is a long ways away for milk.
Does it taste normal or weird?
Of course it will still ferment. You just have to add the ferments yourself (e.g., kefir). But I concur. Pasteurized milk has always given me horrible problems. thanks god I live in a place where raw milk is available everywhere.
Milk companies promote these ‘modifications’ as ‘good things’.
Dead milk is an appropriate term. No wonder it puts the adult mind to sleep, just like a baby on the teat and no wonder it is promoted as an adult food to keep adult minds immature, perpetually; think about it.
To give an idea of how difficult milk is to digest, Milk products when dumped / processed in sewage treatment plants, has a higher oxygen demand ( to beak down) than raw sewage itself.
Ironically drinking milk can cause systemic acidosis, raising the acidity levels in the blood so much, that the body resorts to breaking down bone calcium to balance the blood pH.
In fact this is an original prime purpose of calcium storage in living organisms, (as a pH modifier)
Having good health bones is also a vital fundamental reservoir of the proto cells of the immune system, therefore using bone as a means to overcome gravity and mobilise is secondary, even a tertiary adaptive benefit only.
The body will always prioritise blood pH over bone integrity every time, it’s that vital, understand how cruel the targeted advertising, in the name of greed is! Conditions like rheumatoid arthritis and osteoporosis come to mind.
This deception of the human mind and self destruction of the body is based on a false belief, primed and promoted through marketing targeted advertising.
Believing such lies, ‘Modern humans’ should not claim to be non religious.
If you’re still drinking milk as an adult, consider how you’ve been fooled into weakening your own body and mind.
You have a right to be upset.
I notice that Zerohedge has an article that I published on December 15, 2023, up under the name
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/10-reasons-why-world-cant-run-without-fossil-fuels
Ten Reason Why the World Can’t Run Without Fossil Fuels
OFW link:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/12/15/ten-things-that-change-without-fossil-fuels/
Yes… More USofT LNG exports means more pollution, more emissions, more PROFIT for the few. Of course the USofT can ONLY add more of it. Biden must beat the Obama’s OIL&GAS record.
It’s interesting that after the generally positive interview of Putin by the American simpleton Carlson there is an immediate negative event. Putin has been accused of the killing of opposition polotician Navalny in Russia.
Now we know that Nord Stream was blown up by the Americans, is it possible that Navalny was whacked by the CIA?
The fake media have accused Putin which is quite strong evidence that he’s innocent.
“is it possible that Navalny was whacked by the CIA?”
The CIA sent operatives to penetrate a secure Russian prison in deepest Siberia? I hardly think so.
They have a few assets in all the Russian prisons. Geez!
“They have a few assets in all the Russian prisons.”
I’m thinking mission impossible. And of what use would it be to them anyway?
I’m not saying it’s what happened but I bet they could have arranged it
They told the Russian doctors to give him a double dose of Pfizer mRNA COVIDIUS miracle juice!
Navalny was an expendable CIA asset used to try to gin up unrest in Russia as a political opponent and was no loss to the CIA. His only “value” ironically was in his death which Biden tried to use to support his claim that Russia is a tyrannical state with precious little of our “Democracy” here in the US which we force down the throats of rest of the world at the barrel of a gun.
Gee, no outcry when the Ukranians killed American journalist Gonzalo Lira in prison for spreading “disinformation” about how the Russians had arguably some valid reasons for launching a preemptive military strike on Ukraine.
Correct. Someone actually gets it!
Just like they sacrificed the rave partiers in Israel… they do not give a f789 about cockroaches
It amazed me that the majority in the UK believed the lockdown was because the government cared about their health. I knew whatever the reason was it wasn’t that.
The oil refining sector in Europe is under a lot of stress . Reason . Sanctions on Russia . They were getting BLENDED oil from Russia via pipeline . Because of sanctions they must do their own blending . The refiners must now source oil from multiple sources and that has to be transported by sea . Problem . The Houthis have sealed off the Red Sea and Suez Canal . Oil has to be transported via Cape of Horn . Too expensive . So the solution ? Buy finished products from India ( which has access to discounted Russian oil ) . Result . Refineries are working below capacity and break even point on financials . Call ” shooting yourself in the foot ” .😂
We europeans are ultra-smart!
Interesting point! Russian oil is very heavy, so it needs blending. It provides the relatively large proportion of diesel that Germany and the rest of Europe is used to. It is very difficult to get as much diesel from the world market.
“The oil refining sector in Europe is under a lot of stress… Result. Refineries are working below capacity and break even point on financials. Call ”shooting yourself in the foot”
much of Europe will likely reach some new Dark Ages within a decade or two.
SCHINZY
IGNORED
02/17/2024 at 7:15 pm
People often say that natural gas is cheap in Europe because of a warm winter. Actually, Europe has had 8 warm winters out of the last 10. The main reason for the lower gas price in Europe is that Europe is de-industrializing. According to Rystad, Europe shut in 15% of its industrial production in 2022. Probably dropped more in 2023 but I haven’t seen numbers.
Neoclassical economists understand neither economic production nor prices. They do not understand economic production because they underestimate the importance of energy. They do not understand prices because they think the law of supply and demand says something. It doesn’t. It does not satisfy the Karl Popper’s principle of refutability. Nothing can be deduce from it.
“The main reason for the lower gas price in Europe is that Europe is de-industrializing.”
That is a good point–one that is easy to miss. It is the way to get consumption down. But doing this makes it increasingly difficult to afford buying the natural gas because Europe will have nothing to export.
Oil flow cannot be stopped , only redirected .
https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/India-Replaces-EU-as-Buyer-of-Russian-Oil-1.png?w=945&quality=80&ssl=1
Sorry only what I can get to do a copy/paste . Rest is behind a paywall . The Potemkin economy trundles on .
” “just the top 5 stocks account for 75% of all S&P YTD gains, and just the top 3 tech stocks account for 90% of tech sector YTD gains”
The five stocks are FAANG , I assume all here understand the acronym but just for clarification N is not Netflix but Nvidia riding the AI false narrative .
yes the AI false narrative has enabled the latest abbbsurd bubble, and the big 5 are riding fairly worthless fake so-called AI as far as they can ride it.
maybe another year or two and then the fakery will become widely apparent.
Vitamin D is Rat Poison: The FRAUDULENT WORLD OF SYNTHETIC VITAMINS
https://chemtrails.substack.com/p/vitamin-d-is-rat-poison-the-fraudulent?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web
This wave of defining vitamin D like a ‘rat juice / rat poison’ is very interesting, because it is the same description used lately for mRNA vaccines, which are actually defined by now ‘rat juice’ by most of the people.
But, at the same time, vitamin D was one of the treatments used to cure Covid-19 symptoms (together with other medicines)…
I don’t doubt that maybe vitamin D is produced in a bad way by industry, but this use of words seems a subtile and malicious intention of discrediting Covid-19 treatments.
Student, Vitamin D has a long and in-depth study/history. While synthetic vitamins are an issue, I think “Agent 131711″ is off track. I really like it that you bring up the ” rat poison” term.
Vitamin D levels correlated with positive outcomes, but supplementing with vitamin D did not have any effect on outcomes. A possible explanation recently posted here is that being outside improves melatonin and circadian rhythm (overall health, really), and vitamin D was just a coincident indicator that a person was getting outside and being active. Hence, vitamin D was a correlate, not a causative agent.
It’s a wave? Didn’t know that.
Anyway, and just for the record, I firmly believe that anything that comes out of a chemical lab is poison.
There’s only two proper ways of getting vitamin D: sun and food (meat, eggs…)
Your organism is a chemical lab… fix it!
You’re out of the Ark, JMS. But please tell us more.
Would that be factory-farmed meat and eggs, or do you have to raise the critters and harvest the meat and eggs yourself?
Hang on, I feel a little ditty coming on.
Vitamin, vitamin, vitamin D
Most amazing vitamin there’s ever been
5000 IUs does it for me
Vitamin, vitamin, vitamin D
My skin was as scabby as scabby can be
Now it’s as smooth as a baby’s with vitamin D
I was blind as a bat but now I can see
And all because of vitamin D
Vitamin, vitamin, vitamin D
Most amazing vitamin there’s ever been
Better than vitamins A, B, C and E
Vitamin, vitamin, vitamin D
Some other neat things about Vitamin D
It’s antioxidant and anti-inflammatory
Supports immune health, bones, and brain cell activity
Builds muscles, cures depression, and helps you pee
Although vitamin D is very good for you
it’s possible you could get too much too
With an excessive intake of vitamin D
You may develop vitamin D toxicity
Vitamin, vitamin, vitamin D
Most amazing vitamin there’s ever been
Good for us and them and him and her and you and me
Vitamin, vitamin, vitamin D!
If you mean the Ark of Industrial Medicine, yes i’m definitely out.
It’s just my way of saying “very old fashioned.” Not meant as a criticism. William Blake and JRR Tolkien are two people who would probably have shared your sentiments about industrial chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
This synthetic vitamin/supplement subject is one that is asking to be looked at in more detail.
Big Pharma definitely hates ’em because they provide an alternative to what Big Pharma sells for Big Bucks.
But Big Supplement does alright out of ’em, having discovered how to sell them for ten times or more than the cost of production in most cases.
Vitamin D is that rarity in that a lot of people who don’t take other supplements tend to gulp it down with a side order of Vitamin K. I would suppose they’ve heard the message, they trust the research they’ve read, and they’ve experienced positive effects from taking it.
It may be that the message is hype, the research is flawed or fraudulent and the positive effects are placebo effects. But on the other hand, Big Pharma doesn’t want people to take Vitamin D supplements or to sunbathe regularly because Big Pharma prefers the population to be sick, so that it will have more customers.
And f789 sunblock cream — limit exposure … and cover up before you burn.
I was here the other day https://www.neatmeatstore.com/ — and was checking the ingredients on some of the processed stuff they sell… every single item contained sugar – including a cayenne + salt mixture… except .. sea salt
It’s almost as if the machine has issued a mandate informing producers that they must include sugar wherever possible.
The machine does not want you to live till 100 … it doesn’t want you to die at 50 either (that’s why the prefer you don’t smoke)
I took vitamin supplements for some time, but now it seems to me they are just another one of those illusory polarities created by the advertising market, like left/right, Coke/Pepsi, Beatles/Rolling Stones.
People need to believe in something, in any easy solutions. But if we dig a little, we realize it’s lies and bullshit through and through.
Now I’m a nihilist, don’t belif in nofing.
Oddly enough for the longest time I never took supplements having been told by the machine that they were useless.
But since the Rat Juice… I have learned that that the machine does not want me to be too healthy … that’s why it encourages the consumption of load of carbs (see the food pyramid) … dozens of vaccines for kids… etc…
Therefore I generally do the opposite of what the machine tells me
And it is still not telling me to take vitamin supplements
beautiful lyrics there, Mr. T, quite lovely.
I am imagining an equally wonderful melo-D.
Question – remember all those clips of folks twirling around then crashing and dying … why don’t we get any more of those?
Remember the trannies in the parades and in the classrooms… why don’t we get any more clips of those?
Any thoughts?
Cosmic punishment for not chronicling anymore your relation with sasha? if we are not going to get any fun so you shouldn’t.
Two possibilities
1) they stop of their own accord getting ready for a new set of lies
2) the good guys made them stop using “means”
good news for norm (although I think this is fake)
https://youtu.be/6x3ApF6qvBc
“3 seafood processors announce closures, selloffs following historic price collapse for Alaska fishing industry”?
https://alaskapublic.org/2024/02/15/3-seafood-processors-announce-closures-selloffs-following-historic-price-collapse-for-alaska-fishing-industry/
Salmon, halibut and cod seem to be three kinds of fish caught in or near Alaska. I have noticed low salmon prices recently. I would expect that could be part of the problem.
Most fish sold in stores today is “farmed.” It has become too expensive to catch the wild fish, using diesel and human manpower. Fish sizes have been trending smaller, as the big fish are caught, also.
Name another species that sends trawlers with GPS and satellite tracking to find fish… catch as much as possible… wiping out the fish stocks… in the interest of preventing a population die back.
Oh yes of course – only The Most Intelligent species does this.
It seriously pisses me off when humans comment on how animals are stooopid…
I understand that China has been among the worst at over-fishing, but nations everywhere have been doing it. Too many people.
There are too many people cuz humans are burdened by intelligence and they can’t help but do stooopid things that result in this grim situation
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/indias-natural-gas-consumption-set-triple-2050
The world’s most populous country will be supplying much demand but will they be able to afford it? And, so much for net-zero…ha, ha, ha!
There needs to be cheap natural gas nearby, for this to happen. The low wages in India help the country manufacture goods cheaply.
Someone needs to find the country some cheap natural gas nearby. I’m not sure where that would be. There probably is a little coal bed methane that could be captured.
The largest great ape to ever live went extinct because of climate change, study finds
WASHINGTON (AP) — An ancient species of great ape was likely driven to extinction hundreds of thousands of years ago when climate change put their favorite fruits out of reach during dry seasons, scientists reported Wednesday.
The species Gigantopithecus blacki, which once lived in southern China, represents the largest great ape known to scientists — standing 10 feet tall (3 meters) and weighing up to 650 pounds (295 kilograms).
But its size may also have been a weakness.
https://apnews.com/article/extinct-great-apes-china-8b801514b7e58d08c54c0bbcfbc2f27f
https://youtu.be/dvnrhkQc1po?si=Cfv5aJb5r7E2-fU7
Tbat’s how AI has evolved.
Personally,I don’t know how useful this would be. Sam Altman, who is promoting this, wants $7 trillion on this tech.
As opposed to investing in education/training?
If it isn’t fake it makes sense.
Is there enough energy for it to be viable?
Humans will only then only have religion to protect them from having to prove that they are useful to exist.
https://youtu.be/dvnrhkQc1po?si=Cfv5aJb5r7E2-fU7
Tbat’s how AI has evolved.
Ah, more fake computer generated video. The youtuber, Canadian Prepper, thinks the government is going to provide everyone with housing, food and a basic income and we will just play video games all day.
The actual future is going to be quite a shock for people with this belief.
He is a prepper to begin with, and he seems to talk with people ‘in the know’.
Well we know what’s going to happen to people with basements full of food supplies post collapse. It’s a low IQ idea.
They will be raped… skinned alive… then eaten
But not necessarily in that order.
All at the same time!
difficult to imagine in any other sequence tim
so on this very rare occassion, eddy might be right
hope he doesnt let this go to his head–delusions of high intellect etc
Fast sleeps well … knowing HE did not stooopidly inject Juice of Rat (like some fools)
Withnail. I’m genuinely curious about this. From your comments I would guess you must be at least a decade younger than many who post here. Unless everything goes up at once, do you not want any stored food? A “low IQ idea maybe, but it seems, with your curiosity, that you would want to eat while watching the ship go down.
There will be bad people on the loose… no cops…
Any sign of life will indicate food. e.g. chimney smoke
They will come to where the food is … and skin those with the food alive… raping them first
Unless everything goes up at once, do you not want any stored food?
Then what? Try and hide at home? They’ll be coming.
Curious why you would not try to form your own gang. It’s better than sitting at home waiting, and certainly more fun.
YES!!! That’s what I dont get with these doomie preppers… why do all the work and get skinned alive … when you can take some courses on ambushing farmers… and go on the offensive when this blows up.
Curious why you would not try to form your own gang.
Too old to be a warlord.
You are never to old to be a warlord.
All you need is hate, a highly developed suspicious nature and a gift for explaining to younger men why they should be angry and who exactly is to blame (so you can direct them appropriately).
In the west now it is easy….target rich environment.
But in requires hunger to really set it off…….and preferably loss of internet pacifiers.
When BAU goes – if UEP fails…. the MOREONS will see that the emperor is naked… reality will arrive abruptly… when they flick a switch.. and nothing happens.
I cannot wait for this!!!!
Wow, that is a great deal of money.
“Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, is reportedly seeking a substantial amount of funding for a new AI-related semiconductor project. He is in talks with investors and is looking to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for this endeavor1. This ambitious project aims to overhaul the global semiconductor industry and increase global chip-building capacity12. Please note that these figures are based on reports and may not be confirmed1.”
Copilot.
I thought it was $7B, apparently was mistaken.
These projects are now becoming larger than many governments which implies corporations are more powerful that governments.
Perhaps the fabric of the universe is not mean to go this way and adjustments will be made, or maybe this is the fabric of the universe.
Film at eleven,
Dennis l.
The 7 trillion dollars does not exist. The resources to greatly increase chip production do not exist. The electricity to power hundreds of giant server farms does not exist.
The 7 trillion dollar story makes a good excuse to add more debt, however.
The plans that get announced seem to grow more megalomaniac as reality deteriorates.
No peak oil and no energy transition in sight
The world is using more coal, oil and natural gas and will continue to do so.
ED IRELAND NOV 13, 2023
https://edireland.substack.com/p/no-peak-oil-and-no-energy-transition?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
The term “energy transition” was first used after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo and was popularized by President Jimmy Carter in his November 8, 1977, “Address to the Nation on Energy,” Carter called on citizens to “look back in history to understand our energy problem.” President Carter said in his speech to the nation: “We simply use too much and waste too much energy.” The solution, he said, was for the U.S. to reduce its oil consumption and its excessive reliance on foreign oil because the U.S. was importing almost one-half of its oil.
…The EPA’s proposed rules to decarbonize the U.S. economy align with the energy transition plans launched by the World Economic Forum and the International Energy Agency.
….The facts say otherwise. The indisputable facts are that crude oil, natural gas, and coal production and consumption are increasing rapidly and show no signs of abating.
…..My take: Fossil fuels, hydrocarbons, will not be eliminated or replaced in the foreseeable future because there are no viable substitutes. Modern life requires high-power-density fossil fuels.
….Continuing to pursue the elimination of fossil fuels will devastate economies and negatively impact human flourishing.
U.S. natural gas production increased by 9% in 2022, and the EIA projects that it will reach a record high in 2023 and again in 2024:
Pretty much spot on in the article, other than we have are about to hit a brick wall
It’s a population problem, not PO.
If PO was a thing we would be rationing.
Gail thinks that people think it’s scary that we’re running out of oil but the rulers think that climate is scarier.
This is good news in that it gives us time to develop next gen nuclear.
Will it happen ?no, nothing worse than letting us approach 10B.
This is good news in that it gives us time to develop next gen nuclear.
There is no next gen nuclear. Even if there was, we wouldnt be able to mine and refine the fuel or build the power stations. Nuclear power is an accessory of a fossil fuel powered economy.
Inflation is performing a kind of rationing.
The problem is population rising too high for resources. World population is still rising. US population is rising too. It was up in 2023, thanks to immigration.
I think demographics is more a problem, there are too many of us too old to be very productive. We are sort of resource sink, much money is put in and that is as far as it goes; conventional economics has money turning over multiple times. Our final purchase is a box, truly a sunk cost.
Dennis L.
If we’re lucky there’ll be Soylent Green style euthanasia centres for us. If not, we’ll be left to starve.
My neighbor was over with another great conspiracy.
He told me that this migrant invasion is part of a plan by the Solyent Green Industrial Complex.
The average American is so contaminated with the Pharmo toxins and all the poisons that are in our air, water, and food that the Solyent they produce won’t be very “Green” and will be too toxic to maintain the proles after the Great Correction. He says this imported “livestock” base will be necessary for the Overlords to provide “decent food” for their slaves.
He ends all his tales with “It’s all good”
it’s all good.
I’m obviously not advocating it but various tribes around the world eat/used to eat humans and they seem to do fine.
US Population Just Had Its Largest One-Year Increase in History Published Feb 16, 2024 at 6:43 AM EST
Newsweek
The U.S. has just experienced its largest one-year demographic increase in the country’s history, growing by over 3.8 million in 2023 and mostly due to immigration, according to a recent report by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC).
Immigration is one of the biggest issues ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with polls showing widespread concern and President Joe Biden’s likely Republican opponent Donald Trump accusing him of failing to stop a surge of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border during his presidency.
Eric Finnigan, vice president of Building Products Research and Demographics at JBREC, wrote about the report on X, formerly known as Twitter, saying that “the surge is likely short-lived” as it’s almost entirely due to immigration, which is “conditional on policy, legislation, regulations” and others.
Here in South Florida seems they all are coming here..Ole
I was looking for that article. I found earlier estimates saying the US population increased by 0.5%, but I knew that was too low.
Carter called on citizens to “look back in history to understand our energy problem.”
Looking back in history shows us that resources get used up and former industrial cities like Detroit Michigan or Gary Indiana end up looking like a nuclear weapon hit them.
As we wait for The End of the World…
Hoolio — the Foolio …. displays no concern whatsoever…
https://i.postimg.cc/prM7wh6k/The-Fool.png
You continue to deprive us of Sasha news, while spamming the group with dog stuff. Have you no morals?
I get Sasha’s SS new story alerts… and they are at total odds with the persona depicted in her exchanges with Fast Eddy….
It seems as if she is playing a character in the Covid Con… they feed her the articles and the studies… and she posts them… then returns to her alcoholic binge… screaming faggot at anyone who will listen
Not much point in having a go at someone who is not real…
Toby agrees. It snowed today, no worries just snuggle up and sleep.
F789 Yeah https://vigilantnews.com/post/turbo-death-from-turbo-cancers-were-in-trouble-says-dr-ryan-cole/
“Setting the Stage for Mandatory “Vaccination” for the Next Pandemic”
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/02/17/setting-the-stage-for-mandatory-vaccination-for-the-next-pandemic/
France has already adopted legislation giving penalties for not taking mandatory vaccines. WHO wants this kind of action everywhere.
This could lead to shooting.
Data Analyst Unveils Alarming Post-Vaccine Cancer Statistics
“People have stopped taking the vaccine … because [they] know there’s a problem,” says John Beaudoin, an electrical engineer and author of “The Real CDC.”
Once Beaudoin started digging through the Massachusetts death database, he discovered something shocking: cancer deaths are through the roof.
He says:
“Secondary malignant neoplasm of the lymph nodes in Massachusetts is up more than 400% of normal in 2023. It was 258% of normal in 2022.”
– – – – –
Early after the vaccine rollout, pathologist Dr. Ryan Cole warned the world:
“I’m seeing these very calm, manageable cancers take off like wildfire, like hydras, like dragons, and they’re going everywhere.”
Why are cancers taking off “like wildfire”? According to Dr. Cole, it is because “these shots suppress the immune system.”
Full Video: https://t.co/wqhnv97LoH
Related Story:
Turbo Death from Turbo Cancers: “We’re in Trouble,” Says Dr. Ryan Cole (https://t.co/hJzVkRE6Lm)
Follow @VigilantFox
The MSM are now targeting the term TURBO-CANCER.
Soon the Elders will be looking to “Navalny” those who use it. 🙁
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbo_cancer
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/13/gb-news-turbo-cancer-conspiracy-theories-ofcom-bias-anti-vaxxer
hahaha
Breaking: United States, officials, concede, zero active surveillance on long-term effects of COVID-19 mRNA shots.
Article posted below how if people get sick with auto immune, illnesses or worse, they won’t be tracking it. No one will know. Terrifying.
https://t.me/EdwardDowdReal/622
Does he not appear to be an actor? https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KPaU6mIwwYg
I could live in a cave myself….as long as there are clean sheets…
And probably be a lot happier to boot!
8,200-Year-Old Paintings In Patagonia Helped Hunter-Gatherers Survive For 130 Generations by Ben Taub
https://www.iflscience.com/8200-year-old-paintings-in-patagonia-helped-hunter-gatherers-survive-for-130-generations-72965
The site provided a cultural “safety net” at a time when survival was unbearably hard.
….The study authors therefore suspect that the cave represented a “cultural keystone place”, where ancient hunter-gatherers stored local knowledge and met to maintain tribal connections and conduct rituals over many years. Such focal points, they suggest, enabled the sparsely populated communities that inhabited Patagonia to remain connected at a time when extreme heat and dryness made survival incredibly challenging.
“The emergence of rock art at CH1 is recorded since [8,200 years ago] against a challenging environmental background, where the ability to maintain connectivity and demographic viability would have been crucial,” write the researchers. “We suggest that the standardized painting events – and other pigment-related activities – practiced over generations sought to maintain large-scale safety nets by storing information rooted in collective memory and guaranteeing social preservation beyond oral tradition,” they continue.
In total, the study authors analyzed 895 separate paintings that encompassed 446 motifs, all of which were continually reproduced using the same pigments over thousands of years.
By providing a “place-based sense of identity”, the cave may have enabled dwindling numbers of people to stick together across a vast, unforgiving landscape. At a time when human populations in South American deserts were “experiencing repeated crashes”, the lifeline provided by CH1 and its communicative illustrations may have been the difference between survival and annihilation.
See Fast Eddie…that’s where it’s at to survive the bottleneck…
Eddie Flintstone….nice ring to it…
OFW is a “cultural keystone place” for the “riff-raff” as well as people with the proper timing, perspective and expert background like our friend Mike Roberts and Art Berman.
Its like I am not even here,…….
FYI…caves are the place to be to avoid “celestial events”
and we gonna see a real doozy soon.
Groan,
My worry list is full, no need for celestial events.
Dennis L.
Culturally hanging together is important.
In the time of the Old Testament, there was much oral history, learned through memorization. This would be similar, in some ways.
I am delighted to post this https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/16/ppi-inflation-spikes-in-services-and-finished-core-goods-very-disconcerting/
“The worst is over,” he said, adding that with interest rates expected to be cut from the middle of this year, and support from the arrival of newcomers through the talent schemes, “it is expected that property prices will stabilise this year”.
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3252210/peoples-assets-are-disappearing-midland-realty-chairman-sounds-alarm-he-urges-removal-all-hong-kong
Actually … rates are not gonna drop … and the pain will become far more severe in 2024
hahahaha.. I f789ing love it when these greedy f789s believe the lies and then they get their faces smashed in …. (spoken by someone who has exited the market in anticipation of the face smashing… I hate pain)
$20 for a hot dog and a martini, tonight. Well I am glad the worst is over.
No grilled cheese sandwich was available. Maybe a supply chain disruption.
PANIC!!!!
People’s ‘assets are disappearing’: Midland Realty chairman sounds the alarm as he urges removal of all Hong Kong property cooling measures
‘As property and stock prices are falling together, Hong Kong people’s assets are disappearing,’ Midland’s Freddie Wong says
Hong Kong-listed agency is minimising its investments to ‘protect its capital and life’ in the current market
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3252210/peoples-assets-are-disappearing-midland-realty-chairman-sounds-alarm-he-urges-removal-all-hong-kong
The only way this can be sort of fixed is by the government taking over the whole system. The WSJ reports that that is what is happening.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-real-estate-crisis-state-housing-656c5093
China Revives Socialist Ideas to Fix Its Real-Estate Crisis
Xi Jinping aims to put the state back in charge of the crumbling property market, part of a push to rein in the private sector
I expect that governments in many places, especially the US, will be forced to nationalize banks because there will be too many things going wrong–commercial real estate, derivatives, auto loans.
“I expect that governments in many places, especially the US, will be forced to nationalize banks because there will be too many things going wrong–commercial real estate, derivatives, auto loans.”
You are generally prescient, that is something to consider.
Dennis L.
Notice “prescient” violates the i before e rule except after c? Wonder how often that happens?
So Copilot:
“A statistical analysis by Nathan Cunningham, a PhD student at the University of Warwick, found that “i” comes before “e” about 75% of the time, even after “c”2. This means that approximately 25% of the time, English spelling violates the “I before E, except after C” rule.”
Every PhD needs a thesis.
Whatever it takes…. to hold BAU together till The Pathogen arrives
“I expect that governments in many places, especially the US, will be forced to nationalize banks because there will be too many things going wrong–commercial real estate, derivatives, auto loans.” If Trump wins the presidential election, and republican get back into power, how would bank nationalization work, since Republicans are against government interference in the marketplace, “Socialism”.
Might need to be a Democrat, then.
Or the rich Powers that Be, behind the throne.
The plan for Central Bank Digital Currency sounds a whole lot like a work-around for collapsing banks.
New York State just banned natural gas stoves in new buildings. Since Americans are no longer being allowed access to natural gas (cheap energy), all that pesky natural gas has to be disposed of somehow. It’s like Prohibition (1920 to 1933). Instead of religious zealots, substitute woke climate change zealots who are substituting natural gas for hard liquor. Even more hysterical, why not export it to Europe at four-times the going rate, thereby reaping huge and obscene profits from somebody.
New York State is lacking in adequate natural gas pipelines coming into the state. It is basically too far away from Texas/Louisiana, and most old pipelines didn’t go that far.
No one can say, “We can’t extend natural gas pipelines to New York.” Or, “we ought to allow fracking in New York State, to get our own natural gas out.” New York is lacking for electricity as well. No one can talk about these issues. They have to reframe the problem as climate change.
https://www.nysenate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/lea-webb/nys-legislators-introduced-new-bill-ban-co2-drilling-fracking
https://www.fractracker.org/map/us/new-york/moratoria/
Just went to the town board meeting this week here in NY. They raised the pay of the democrat secretary to the supervisor a dem and lowered the pay of republican secretary to the highway superintendent a repub. The dem supervisor has already doubled his salary. No guillotines have yet been erected.
“Should the US add more LNG export approvals?”
Not sure, but the US should definitely add more vaccine approvals. Less people will keep BAU going longer and 10-15 more party years is all I ask for. Then the Universe can do whatever comes next on its grand plan.
Interestingly, Musk recently said that he estimates the probability that we’re living in so-called, base reality as billions to 1 against.
BTW, France recently outlawed criticism of mRNA vaxxes. Gotta keep the sheeple blind, deaf and dumb.
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/02/16/no-new-french-law-does-not-criminalise-opposition-to-mrna-vaccines-but-its-troubling-enough/
The law’s applicability seems a bit unclear to me. Unfortunately, laws like that leave a lot of discretion to the wrong people.
Had to look up “base reality.” Copilot again,
“Musk’s argument is based on the rapid advancement of technology, particularly in the realm of video games and virtual reality. He points out that 40 years ago, we had simple games like Pong, but now we have photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously12. Given this rate of improvement, he argues that it’s likely we’ll soon have games that are indistinguishable from reality12.”
Well, at least it is consistent with my mem having us discover the fabric of the universe.
If this is indeed the case, then the universe would appear to be digital, all 1 and 0 so continuous math would not seem to have much of a future. Man, all that time spent becoming proficient at integration, very frustrating.
Dennis L.
Had the pong game, seemed very new at the time, two bars attempting to hit a dot back and forth.
Off The Cuff With Adam Rozencwajg – Peak Oil Is Closer Than You Think
The Permian shale oil basin is very close to peaking out. When it does, everything changes for the US and the world. Join Adam Rozencwajg and I as we explore the most vital but overlooked topic of our times.
https://peakprosperity.com/off-the-cuff-with-adam-rozencwajg-peak-oil-is-closer-than-you-think/
good thing Canada is planning to increase their production.
later, Venezuela will magically become more friendly with the USA.
In Chris Martenson’s write up, he says:
Again, we get the statement “vastly higher oil prices.” I wouldn’t count on this. More war, maybe. More recession, quite possibly. Perhaps big financial problems. But any peak in oil prices will likely be short-lived.
So that’s the window that The Pathogen has to emerge…
Was test driving a Lexus during a stint here in Christchurch – the salesman told me that they have not sold a single EV vehicle so far this year.
It would appear that reality is busting up the delusion.
hahahahahahahahahahaha
What’s hurting the EV market right now is the initial investment required. The commoners are hurting just trying to make ends meet with rising inflation. Factor in the additional costs just to purchase an EV, plus much higher insurance rates and an EV purchase not only looks real bad but makes NO sense at all.
Then you have to factor in battery maintenance along with charging issues and anyone who buys an EV just looks dumb.
all that, plus the tyres wear out much faster.
lose/lose.
OFRBEVS (only f789ing re tards buy evs)
Only F789ing Re-Tards Buy EVs (OFREV)
It’s difficult to buy anything but a hybrid or EV in many models now….
Salesman at one dealer tells me cost to replace a hybrid battery is only 2-3k
Today salesman (same brand) tells me it’s close to 7k
Lying F789s. I will get this in writing …
Warranty on the battery is 8 years or 160k…
Did I mention the salesman told me they have not sold a single EV this year.
While having my desert, Yogurt with blueberries if you must know, watched a video on 1177, I have read his book.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4LRHJlijVU
Sea People are mentioned 56 minutes into it. It is an enjoyable presentation, take a few hours, not all at once; it is all about collapse of a whole global at the time civilization into a dark age – now that should be a hit on this site!
It is a thesis of why civilization collapsed in 1177 or there abouts. At 56 minutes in Cline mentions the Sea People who from nowhere/somewhere invaded this civilizations which were interconnected, early globalization.
Let’s see, Sea People, people who come by or across the sea. Anyone see parallels?
Also mentioned are the coincident droughts, famines, climate change, earthquakes, etc. the Sea People caught my eye. Again so much doom, must be a hit on OFW, five disasters in the same time period. Famine, FE would be delighted.
If you work on Sea People you will get it, very smart site here.
I recommend the book, read it some years back. Eric Cline is the author.
Amazing what comes over my Youtube. Currently into Raspberry Pi, two year commitment, coincident with my expected time in school, very global, requires many parts and an ultimate desire to address organic agriculture without the backbreaking work, my own. Why farm when one can tinker?
I think Gail has many valid points, my hope is the collapse comes after my time, always the optimist.
Dennis L.
In some ways, the Sea People were like the Barbarians that were able to take down the Roman Empire. As I recall, at that time, there was a problem with declining tin availability, and the ability to make bronze using copper + tin.
I read the book a long time ago. I should be back and look at it again.
Yes, the barbarians, yes tin came from what is now Afghanistan, but as for Sea People(who are not identified and lost in history) I am thinking of something closer to home, a home where NG may be peaking, oil will peak any day now, and as a civilization we are having trouble keeping things together.
Cline states collapse took 100 or so years and as I recall the thesis, it was not a single event that took civilization down, it was a number of simultaneous events in what was at the time a very interconnected world, not unlike our own.
Dennis L.
The Bronze Age civilisations collapsed for the same old reasons as every other collapsed civilisation including ours.
Those would be exhausted farmland, deforestation and diminishing returns on mining.
Watch the skull cap index…..it is inversely proportional to “civilized activity”
Even Cimmerians keep charts on occasion.
Cro.
So you live in the Ukraine/Russia area? You mentioned Cimmerians.
Dennis L.
So you live in the Ukraine/Russia area? You mentioned Cimmerians.
I believe they’re from Conan The Barbarian?
lol…I most definitely do not live in Ukraine or Russia. But I do live in a very similar ecology to the Carpathian foothills or the Caucasus….but generally colder.
Lotsa bears, wolves and big elk herds etc.
Sorta like the place that dear old Robert E Howard thought that Hyboria would be like.
32,000 bp I am sure it was a dead ringer…….Northern sasquatches and Mammoths included.
Crom approved…….he runs the simulacrum right?
” . . . So, can it be a coincidence that the most
54:17 cataclysmic eruption of Hekla we know about was the one that took place
54:21 sometime around the Year 1100 BC, right as the Bronze Age collapse reached its
54:27 height? This eruption is known as Hekla 3. It threw nearly seven-and-a-half
54:34 cubic kilometers of volcanic rock into the atmosphere and covered the sky in a
54:39 dark shroud of dust that would have lasted for years after the event. In
54:43 Ireland, studies done on bog oaks, those are trees half-fossilized in marshy
54:49 waters, have shown that for 18 years after the eruption of Hekla 3, the trees
54:53 barely grew at all. Across the Atlantic in the United States,
54:58 Bristlecone Pines, the oldest living trees on earth, still show similar
55:03 records of this time of darkness and cooling which seems to have lasted about
55:07 two decades. The effect on our region would have been dramatic; crops
55:13 would have failed, soils would have blown away, and more than that; the dark cloud that
55:19 seemed to hang over the sun would have spoken to people of something dreadful
55:23 on its way, a punishment from the gods and perhaps even the end of the world. . . . ” ?
Did not watch video, yet.
Clein posits over a hundred years or so five catastrophic events anyone of which could have been survived but this was a very integrated area and as Gail pointed out tin or lack thereof was a problem. Tin came from Afghanistan.
Coincidence, Sn has a specific gravity of 7.29 vs Cu 8.96 and bronze generally uses 20% tin so importation of tin would be more energy efficient than the reverse importation of Cu. The bronze age was in the eastern Mediterranean area which had Cu. but apparently no Sn.
There was Sn in Cornwall and Devon, but this is too early for that as a source I think,
If our trading routes collapse, that could be serious, the Red sea comes to mind.
Dennis L.
Cataclysm is an ingrained recurrent feature of simulacrum programming. All ancient cultures knew this.
We are getting another real doozy in the next decade or so.
All the elite bunker building has nothing to do with Nuke War (waving hands in air)…..
The bunkers are for something biblical….as is all the interest in the moon.
Wow… a useful post from Dennis
This article is very interesting.
Various articles explain things in similar ways.
Sea people in my view were a confederation of tribes from ancient greeks, philistines, anatoliic (Troia), Lebanon region.
They are the origin of the later well known Phoenicians / Fenici.
They surely hit great civilizations like Egypt in their phase of collapse.
Phoenicians were later a great problem also for Romans.
They conquered Sardinia (Italy).
https://www.worldhistory.org/trans/it/1-181/i-popoli-del-mare/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenicia
P.s.
In my view it is also for this reason that Israeli don’t want to give back to Palestinians (Philistines) the use of the sea.
But they were there before of the arrival of Abrahm.
Abrahm is a figure I like a lot, but he was actually a shepherd and arrived from internal land, with his tribe and his herd of sheep, to the land of the Sea people.
In my view prophet Mohamed distorted a little bit the history saying that also Palestinian derived from Abrahm, so nomadic, sheperds (that is in land: a region not clear among Anatolic or Arabic Peninsula or current Iraq) , while in my view Palestinians mainly derive from Philistines / Phoenicians / Sea People.
But it is only my opinion, I respect all Religions, they probably catch a part of the truth.
Shepherds in the hills are are always the chosen ones……
Its a thing…..
They often have nearby caves also….
Is someone taking notes?
It set Civilization backward for at least 500 years
Your blind optimism does not see that
When the great solar flash arrives it will vaporize all quaint notions of chat gpt, electric lights and all available toilet paper.
What do ya’ll thing of every single one of earths volcanos erupting at same time along with radiation levels high enough to parboil a goose in flight?
Civilization might recover by 12,000 AD…..but don’t count on it.
Its a feature, not a bug,…..everyone should just accept it.
Civilisation is over forever when the current one collapses.
There could be a remnant that remains, and starts a new cycle.
Humans have done well through ice ages. We assume our civilization is extraordinarily important, but cycles are typical in finite systems. Animal populations tend to rise and fall.
But we have mined all the good metal ores and energy resources. There’s no coming back from that.
Scratching in the dirt for bugs to eat — while cancer gnaws at their bones
Humans will remain….and start to speciate once again…..civilization only restarts at the most basic level and stays there…
OR the resetting of the simulacrum refills the oil fields and twists the fabric of reality to remove our collective ability to recall history…..
Stranger things have happened.
The dominant species on this planet must really get a kick out of our antics……or maybe we have scared them so badly they will do anything to remain hidden.
We simply don’t comprehend what is all around us.
How to f789 with a spammer ….. hahahahahahahaha
Hey Fast Eddy
I’m facing some technical issues with my phone recently. Did you get my previous message?
Best regards,
Brian Meng
Partner – CGO Consulting
Edmonton, AB
Yes, I did. But I had my covid booster last week and ended up in the hospital with severe myocarditis the same day. I’ll have to come back to you later as I have to deal with this first
The other Keebler elves are:
Ma – the matriarch
Doc – the eldest of all elves
Elmer – the apprentice
Buckets – the muscle
Roger – the tallest elf
Fast Eddie – the elf of few words
Leonardo – the artist
Elwood – the tween elf
Chucky – the greatest
sasha – the honorary.
Like it, nice.
Dennis L.
Dennis – the biologist
In my sugarless haze I look at the fudge cookie.
I see it has a name… Eddie, the word before … i squint.. Fast?
I dunk it in the bitter tea hoping the sugar will release me from the simulation.
(Fast is a hero, I probably wouldn’t spend as much time reading this blog)
The PTB could still pull out a victory out of jaws of defeat if they give these to China
1 . Make Taiwan its vassal state
2. Give South Korea to North
3. Create a “Republic of Okinawa”. Okinawa was a separate state until 1872.
In turn China supports the PTB and Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc collapse.
The PTB can choose between Taiwan and south Korea, vs the loss of the domination of the entire world. If the PTB has brains it will choose the latter.
Woodrow Wilson denied the German Empire its gains in the east which it rightfully won, because the Poles and Czechs had to have their own countries, which , I have to say, were fairly inconsequential in terms of civilization. The only thing the Czechs ever did in their entire existence was the invention of the word ‘robot’.
The PTB has a chance to not repeat this mistake. Give Taiwan and South Korea to China, let China ally with the PTB and use Chinese power to topple Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc.
certain absolute defeat awaits humanity, in the face of the vast mighty Universe and the magnitude of its unconquerable space and incomprehensible time.
it’s all good, really, truly.
have some yummy dark chocolate.
take a nice long walk.
que sera sera.
Well, maybe. The universe likes biology, it made a whole galaxy and more just for us; I am going with the universe on this one.
Dennis L.
Given that most celestial bodies do not have organisms, probably not.
It make sense. The system needs the resources – Russia has those. Thus, split Russia 50/50 between China and the US. Can they do it without nukes though? I don’t know.
Some pain would be required but with China on the side of TPTb Russia could be strangled
China doesn’t have much of a history of conquest I am told, the US is too fat to conquer much other than a snow cone.
Based on current operations, my money is on Russia and China getting along just fine.
War is so yesterday.
Dennis L.
The 5th gen war against US is working fine. If the infiltration teams can take out the three groups of land based ICBMs it is half way done. The hard part will be the subs.
Here’s a better idea; vacate Taiwan. I’m sure the Taiwanese can carve out a formidable existence in sparsely populated Northern Europe. But don’t forget to bring TSMC (et. al) with all of its equipments along. Tsai Ing-Wen can rule “Lapphelvetet” 🥰👍👍
Then “Taiwan” just could be handed to the CCP, because nobody would care (too much).
See, solved that for ya in no time flat with no bullets flying.
Questions on that?
🤣👍👍
Why Saudi Arabia dumped it’s ” Sugar Daddy ” ?. Kurt Cobb on the subject .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2024/02/surprise-saudi-arabia-is-no-longer.html#more
Same reason all sugar daddies are dumped. When the sugar daddy runs out of money the girl dumps the now old man for a younger, and hopefully wealthier, man.
Good point!
kul,
Don’t think that is how it works, girl becomes twenty plus, she is so yesterday.
In IA there was an industrialist with jet, etc. and a yacht in Monaco. Each year a runner up or thereabouts to Miss IA was invited to be miss yacht hostess. Rumor had it the heals and bikinis matched. It was a one year gig and after that, she was so yesterday.
Had his former wife as patient, nice alimony, amazing what one can purchase with a really good business behind you.
In my MBA program had a young woman, smart as the dickens, exec for this fellow, took her accounting book and cut out the chapters, made it so much easier to carry and read on the jet while going from business to business. Had a housekeeper and nanny for the children while she was working. Now, that is an efficient mother, always home cooked meals, attractive, rich, probably good looking children and a true jet setter to boot.
It is a very competitive game.
Dennis L.
Guess your Copilot does not have a good solution about this, since it was created by lowly paid incels living in shared pods.
Both of your examples have nothing to do about how sugar daddies are eventually dumped.
They are dumped when they run out of money.
>Had a housekeeper and nanny for the children while she was working. Now, that is an efficient mother, always home cooked meals, attractive, rich, probably good looking children and a true jet setter to boot.
All the money will eventually go to her much younger second husband (or third or fourth), with the children left with just whatever was put into their trusts. But of course your Copilot was created by those who can’t get laid, so it won’t know.
What do the spate of mergers and acquisitions in the shale patch indicate ? It means the coming end of the oil industry . Means there is no place to grow . Only way to survive is cannibalism of your competition . We have seen this in the past in the airline industry , automotive industry , retail stores etc .
P.S : I am making a difference between the ” shale ” oil patch and the conventional oil companies , The conventional oil patch has already been thru it’s own M&A consolidation .
I fully accept the endgame of this process.
the 2050s are going to be brutal.
That is after my expiration date.
mine too, conveniently.
Maybe, or maybe the majors really think they have some new techniques that will get more oil out. We will see.
” they have some new techniques that will get more oil out ”
Gail ,they are already drilling 3 mile lateral wells to take out the oil from the source rock . A new tech possible (100 to1 ) but then there is the question of complexity . How complex will that be . We are now on the downslope of the curve . We are using low EROEI resources to extract and mine even more lower EROEI resources and minerals ( Low concentration ores ) .Moving and refining 1 ton of ore to get 3-6 gm of platinum and 50 tons of gold ore to make a finger ring .
https://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-3/mineral-resources/deposits-and-markets/how-much-metal-does-the-ore-contain/
Mike Shellman agrees with me . Understand the economics of oil extraction .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/5fcbcbb3ee90ec001721308c/stripper-well-economics-101?postId=65d0fd3157c11e0010e67d6e&origin=notification&utm_campaign=d7ec08f7-a8bc-4fd5-be6c-e2a4b4a9eddc&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=e3956101-51f6-4352-a048-34d7525e5ebb&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
The Fed will be funding this:
These shale dudes have lost SO much money over the years their tax loss carryfowards will get them to their graves without ever paying Federal income tax. So NA on that. My tax deductions includes State severance tax, property tax due counties and school districts, and State franchise allocations, but not money paid to the government. The API likes to leave that part out.
Basically the oil industry has been nationalized
Remember that the LNG-tankers have to sail back to the US empty. And the tankers need fuel for that return voyage.
Interesting point!
Never thought about this . Thanks for the enlightenment .
Never thought of that one either.
Dennis L.
me neither!
anyone else never think of this minor issue?
😎
My solution is to fill them with Belgian chocolate. This will tide us into the 2040s.
That’s a good point. A very expensive journey all round.
About half of the LNG-tankers are empty at any given moment.
But the same is true for oil tankers of course.
Back when we used to send paper and plastic to China and India for recycling, we were able to fill other types of ships with this material to be recycled (perhaps only dumped into the ocean, in fact). But if customers were willing to pay, it filled ships on the way back. Most of this recycling was discontinued effective January 1, 2018. Loss of this industry tended to push the world economy down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_waste_import_ban
I’m not sure what the outcome of this was. I heard ships were refusing to take empty containers back to China. Presumably that’s happening now but of course shipping rates are a lot higher.
If today’s Cabal/TPTB/Illuminati/you-name-it loses,
that means it is end of Civilization, end of Progress and end of everything
If they lose humanity returns back to the medieval era
they are destined to lose.
I fully accept the consequences.
oh, and thank you Chucky.
Let Chucky and the entire population of Worcestershire be cursed for eternity.
Without Chucky, Sasha and chocolate it would be a mortuary around here.
in these early years of the Endgame:
I will try to make a heroic effort to continue to uphold the memory of Chucky, and praise the delights of dark chocolate.
but there is only one man who can bring forth the bounty of dialogues with Sasha.
but is He up to the task?
or too weak?
I am somewhat disappointed. It is one of the better sideshows here, and he deprives us all of that. The man has no heart.
inevitable human extinction will erase the fond memories of them.
acceptance of inevitable human extinction is a beautiful thing.
almost Springtime here, in about 2 weeks.
singing birds, it’s BAU (Birds As Usual).
quite lovely.
There is no progress. There is only entropy.
True? Who knows… https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/80-of-americans-test-positive-for-chemical-found-in-cheerios-quaker-oats-that-may-cause-infertility-delayed-puberty-study/ar-BB1ikgKc
The “highly toxic agricultural chemical” is federally allowed to be used on oats and other grains imported to the US, according to the EWG. When applied to oat and grain crops, chlormequat alters a plant’s growth, preventing it from bending over and thus making it easier to harvest,
hahahahaha… look at what the stooopid humans did!
Doesn’t sound good!
Thanks, that is disappointing.
Modern farming is too much large equipment dictating farming practices. I truly wonder if it works and suspect it only works with continual growth.
Dennis L.
why didn’t anybody think about putting this chemical in the vaccines?
Avdeyevka is falling. It is a key strategic city as the UKR supply root runs through it.
10 of 1000s of UKR troops are trapped in the place including the reconstituted Azov brigade and so-called ‘crack’ UKR troops.
UKR had the chance to withdraw this week but they flooded troops in and they all got encircled within days.
That is a massive UKR blunder and an overall debacle in Avdeyevka.
Remember, UKR recently got a new military leadership and they look no better than the last.
Alexander makes the point that NATO is also ‘reinforcing failure’ by keep sending kit to UKR.
Somehow NATO like UKR just cannot face up to the fact that Russia is going to win and that the outcome is only getting worse for themselves.
> Avdeyevka is collapsing, Zelensky travels to Germany
Like this?
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/infamous-war-worlds-radio-broadcast-was-magnificent-fluke-180955180/
“10 of 1000s of UKR troops are trapped in the place including the reconstituted Azov brigade and so-called ‘crack’ UKR troops.”
and very nicely trapped indeed.
this is a beautiful story.
I’m sure it will have a happy Russian fairytale type ending.
No real organized defense of Avdeyevka by Ukraine. Troops are trapped.
I betcha there will be no video evidence of any of this (cuz that’s impossible)
Odd how there are no freelancers hanging out in Ukey trying to get clips or shots … this war is unique in that respect
Maybe there are but they can’t find any action
You really are a nutter.
Cuz I demand evidence — and am refusing to accept this cuz bbccnn told me to?
hahahahahahahaahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahaha
WTF
Better a nutter than mentally ill…
This is a LNG / NG post so read this link by Alexander Kurdishov on the US natural gas situation . Serious stuff . Serious stuff .
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-feb-10-2023/#comment-770169
Alexander Khurshudov’s big point seems to be that US natural gas reserves are hard to estimate, but they seem to be lower than published reserve amounts at the end of 2021. Rushing pell mell to increase natural gas exports don’t make sense under these circumstance. I would fully agree with him. That is part of what I am saying.
I am somewhat confused by this part of what he says:
The comment omits exhibits, so I cannot see what specifically he is referring to. This does not match up with my understanding of the situation. The US publishes list of approved projects, quarterly. I looked at them at December of 2022 and December of 2023. Exhibits can be downloaded at this link, if you scroll down to US liquefaction capacity, and then find the right date to download.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/data.php
Even back as far at December 2022, there is a project is called Alaska LNG that is on the list as “approved.” Presumably, the hang up is getting funding, not on getting US approval.
There seem to be subtleties in how this pause is interpreted. A Houston Chronicle article makes it look like proposals can be kicked off of the approved list for not getting funding fast enough:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/biden-lng-permit-pause-houston-18631009.php
What Biden’s LNG ‘pause’ could mean for 4 multibillion-dollar projects with Texas ties
When I check against the list of project that have been approved, the first two seem to be totally new; the other were kicked out for not getting funding fast enough:
1. Expansion of Port Arthur- Only Phase 1 is listed at 12/31/2023.
2. Commonwealth LNG in Louisiana – Not listed at all at 12/31/2023.
3. Lake Charles LNG – On the list as approved, but apparently they had been on the list too long–has not received funding in the time permitted, and are being kicked off the list.
4. Magnolia LNG — Same outcome as Lake Charles LNG
I see a Time article that says:
https://time.com/6589664/biden-lng-export-terminal-pause-what-to-know/
This just broke my BS meter .
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Majors-Pursue-Projects-with-30-Breakeven.html
It almost looks like a last gasp attempt by the financiers to suck in as much dumb money as they can before the music stops.
Okay, thanks, I am a summary type:
“7. Summary
Four years ago, I already did a similar review of the American gas industry and came to the conclusion that it was provided with resources for 6-7 years. This conclusion was completely confirmed. But here’s what I noticed back then:
American gas exports are caught between two fires. If domestic gas prices rise, it becomes unprofitable. And if domestic prices drop significantly, exports will set records, but mining companies will suffer losses and reduce production. The situation is risky for both sellers and buyers.
US gas production remains heavily dependent on gas prices. But now the amount of information has decreased significantly. No one, like the Texas authorities previously, publishes data on the production of wells and fields. No one, like the previous geological department of the US Department of Internal Affairs, makes calculations of the reserves of entire formations. Statistics are based on company data. There are hundreds of them, and each strives to present their business in the best possible way. No one analyzes the production of layers, gas recovery coefficients, because no one needs it.
In general, I have the impression that the industry is rushing somewhere at breakneck speed, under the motto “Grab your bags – the station is leaving.” Now prices are falling and production may fall. But there are growth reserves for the next 4-6 years, and with rising prices we will see another small renaissance.
It is on this complex, iridescent note that I will end my review. One thing I can say for sure: an irreversible decline in oil production in the United States will begin earlier than gas production.
link:https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1344317”
My take, it is a wild ass guess, prices will fluctuate.
Earth is tapped out, fusion is the only answer and we already have a suitable reactor, we need collection and transmission of same. We could do energy first in the form on information; all computer centers to space, not that heavy a load and Musk has shown how to make $1B/year in generation and in situ usage.
Eating an elephant is one bite at a time, Musk took the first bite with internet, computers next that relieves the NG shortage secondary to electrical generation with gas. Cooling is a breeze, space is really, really cold.
Dennis L.
I don’t know. One thing that the article by Alexander Kurdishov points out is that the share of the gas that is in the rock that can actually be extracted is very low (gas recovery coefficient )–10% is mentioned as being very good, and 6.7% as expected in the future. If this can be raised at all there is the potential for much more gas extraction.
The issue with oil is similar, with higher percentages. In recent years, new techniques have been developed to raise the share that can be extracted, but they tend to be expensive.
But if new techniques, which are not terribly expensive, can be used to raise this breakeven percentage, I can imaging the breakeven cost being much lower than what we are used to.
I am willing to wait and see.