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In the US, companies that want to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals need to get advance approval for their plans from the US Department of Energy. There was a recent news item saying, “Biden pauses LNG export approvals under pressure from climate activists.” After looking into the situation, I 100% agree with Biden’s decision. There is no sense in the US adding more approvals for added LNG capacity at this time. This is the case, completely apart from climate considerations.
When looking into the situation, I found that the US already has a huge amount of LNG export capacity approved but not yet under construction. The likely roadblock is the need for debt financing. One obstacle is the need to find investors willing to make very long commitments–as long as 25 years, considering the time to build the LNG plants, plus the time that they are expected to be in operation. Issues that could be expected to get in the way of long-term investment would include:
- Today’s relatively high interest rates.
- Today’s low US natural gas prices (Henry Hub natural gas price is currently $1.64 per million Btus, a near-record low), discouraging investment in natural gas extraction.
- The possibility that US oil and natural gas extraction from shale formations will reach limits within the next 25 years.
- The possibility that overseas buyers will not be able to afford exported LNG at the prices needed to make extraction profitable. For example, a selling price of $25 per million Btus would probably greatly reduce the quantity of LNG that could be sold in the EU.
- The possibility of construction delays caused by broken supply lines.
- The possibility of fires causing significant down-time in operating facilities.
- Even if natural gas is available for export, and even if LNG export facilities are built, there is the possibility that the rest of the system, including specialized LNG transport ships, may not be available in sufficient quantities.
In this post, I will try to give some background on this issue.
[1] Many people seem to believe that the US can easily ramp up natural gas production for export if it chooses to do so.
There seems to be a common belief that the US has an almost unlimited supply of oil. Natural gas is produced together with oil, so a corollary to the high supply of oil is that the US has an almost unlimited supply of natural gas.
At the same time, there are many parts of the world with an inadequate supply of natural gas. Many of these countries are trying to add wind and solar power generation. Natural gas is very helpful for balancing wind and solar because electricity production from natural gas can be ramped up and down very quickly, filling in when intermittent sources of supply are not available.
The European Union (EU) is one area that has very inadequate natural gas supply (Figure 1). The EU is also known for its use of wind and solar power, so it needs natural gas for its balancing ability.
If it is true that the US has a huge supply of US natural gas, all that would seem to be needed to solve the EU’s wind and solar balancing problem is for the US to export natural gas to the EU.
The modern way of exporting natural gas seems to be as LNG, transported by specialized ships at a very low temperature (about – 260°F (-161.5°C)). It appears that all that the US needs to do is to ramp up its natural gas production, and with it, its LNG export infrastructure.
[2] Natural gas prices vary widely around the world. US prices are much lower than elsewhere. These differences would also seem to support building more LNG export facilities.
Figure 2 shows that US natural gas prices are much lower than elsewhere. This has especially been the case since 2008 when the shale boom began, making it look as if the US can easily export natural gas if it likes. Even with the cost of shipping included, it looks as if consumers in the EU and Japan might find US LNG attractive in price.
[3] Natural gas tends to be cheap to extract but getting it to the customer and storing it until the right time of year is an expensive headache.
Natural gas is a fuel that is disproportionately used in winter to heat homes and businesses. This heat can be provided by burning the natural gas directly, or it can be provided by first burning the natural gas to produce electricity, and then using a device, such as a heat pump, to provide heat.
If natural gas can be utilized close to where it is extracted, there tends to be a huge cost advantage over long-distance transport. Clearly, one reason is that utilization near the point of extraction reduces transit costs. Also, empty gas caverns that can be used for storage are often available near the point of extraction. This storage approach is much less expensive than building specialized tanks for storage. These cost advantages are one reason why US natural gas prices shown on Figure 2 are much lower than those in the EU and Japan.
[4] Low natural gas prices in the US are now well “baked into the system.”
With natural gas prices remaining low for around the past 16 years, individuals and businesses have adjusted their consumption patterns based on the assumption that an abundant supply of inexpensive natural gas will be available permanently. US natural gas production has approximately doubled since its low point in 2005, and consumption has almost kept up.
Many changes have taken place since gas prices fell. The US electrical system has significantly reduced its reliance on coal and instead increased its utilization of natural gas. People have built oversized homes based on the assumption that cheap natural gas will be available to heat them. Businesses have built factories in the US under the assumption that electricity costs of the US will continue to be low compared to those in Europe, Japan, and many other parts of the world, indirectly because of the US’s inexpensive supply of natural gas.
These low electricity and natural gas prices give the US a competitive advantage in making goods for export. With the shift away from coal for electricity production, the US can now say that it has reduced the carbon intensity of its electricity. Politicians like the competitive advantage for the US as well as the lower carbon intensity. Few of them would vote to go back to earlier ways, even if it was possible to do so.
[5] Natural gas tends to be utilized close to where it is produced. The early form of natural gas export was by pipeline. In recent years, LNG exports have increased.
Figure 4 shows that, consistently, about 75% of natural gas is used in the region where it is extracted. This happens because natural gas tends to be inexpensive close to the point of extraction. The use of inexpensive resources helps make an economy competitive in the world market, making them attractive for local use.
Pipeline trade tends to be inexpensive if the distance is short. The disadvantage is that pipeline gas tends to be inflexible; prices are often locked in for long periods. Pipelines can be a disadvantage if they pass through another county. The country allowing transit will likely want to make a charge for this service; this can lead to conflict. Pipelines can easily be blown up if countries start fighting with each other.
LNG is the newer approach to exporting natural gas. Its advantage is its flexibility; its disadvantage tends to be its higher cost when the entire cost of the operation is considered. There need to be export facilities where the natural gas is chilled and loaded into specialized tankers. Investors, quite possibly from another country, need to invest in the specialized tankers used to transport the LNG. At the other end, there is the need for regasification plants and for gas pipelines to the facilities where the gas is to be utilized.
Recouping the total cost of the system can be a problem with LNG. If prices are set under long-term contracts pegged to the price of oil, as has been the case between Japan and Russia, advantageous prices for the producers can be obtained. (Note the high prices Japan has been paying in Figure 2.) Of course, with long-term contracts, the flexibility of the system is lost.
In some years, there has been more LNG capacity than required in Europe. Exporters without long-term contracts started selling natural gas at spot prices, depending upon the balance between supply and demand at the time of the sale. (Notice the lower natural gas prices for Europe in Figure 2). It is not clear to me that investors can earn enough on their investments, if they are forced to depend on spot prices, which can easily fall too low if there is excess supply.
On the other hand, if the LNG market gets tight, as it did in 2022, spot prices can jump very high, making it difficult for LNG buyers to find affordable supply.
[6] An analysis by the EIA indicates that the US already has a great deal of LNG export capacity at some stage of development.
The most recent EIA analysis of LNG capacity in the process of being developed is shown at this link.
The above analysis was performed using data as of the end of 2022. It shows that at that time, the amount of liquefaction capacity was
- 37.0 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d), considering existing, under-construction and approved liquefaction capacity.
- 18.7 Bcf/d, considering existing and under-construction liquefaction capacity.
More recent information is also available. A release dated January 26, 2024, by the Department of Energy says,
The United States is the global leader in LNG exports with 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in current operating capacity and 48 Bcf/d in total authorizations approved by DOE to date, over three times our current export capacity.
This quote seems to imply that the total authorizations increased from 37.0 Bcf/d to 48 Bcf/d, based on an unpublished, more recent, analysis.
The 14 Bcf/d in current operating capacity is far above recent LNG export amounts. The actual quantity of US LNG produced in 2022 was 10.8 Bcf/d based on the data underlying Figure 5. Based on data through November 2023, I would estimate that amount of LNG produced in 2023 amounted to about 11.7 Bcf/d. These comparisons suggest that the actual amount of LNG produced may lag significantly below the stated export capacity.
If we compare the total exports authorized of 48 Bcf/d to the actual production amount (about 11.7 Bcf/d for 2023), the ratio is over 4, implying a very high amount of authorized additional LNG production capacity.
[7] The EIA model shown in Figure 5 indicates that several conditions need to hold for LNG exports to ramp up substantially.
(a) Figure 5 indicates that for NGL exports to increase significantly, both oil and natural gas prices need to be high. With low oil and low natural gas prices, exports do not increase much at all, regardless of the infrastructure built. (As I noted in the introduction, US natural gas prices are now very low. World oil prices are not very high, either. Thus, the model indicates that not much ramping up in NGL exports should be expected, even if more export capacity is added.)
(b) To enable export of the maximum amount of LNG overseas, “Fast Builds” of the rest of the infrastructure also needs to be high. In other words, there must be rapid growth in the number of LNG transport carriers and in receiving facilities for the exported LNG.
(c) The fact that the gray shaded area (indicating the scenarios the modelers thought likely) does not extend to the Fast Builds scenario means that the modelers consider this scenario unlikely. Even if infrastructure is built on this end, other parts of the system likely won’t be in place.
(d) Hidden in the assumptions is the fact that the citizens at the receiving end of the LNG must be able to afford electricity made with high-priced natural gas and products such as fertilizer, made with high-priced natural gas. If citizens at the receiving end cut way back on their use of natural gas (by not heating their homes as much, or by doing less manufacturing using electricity, or by making less fertilizer with natural gas), export prices are likely to fall.
[8] The reason why oil prices need to be high for high LNG exports is because much of the natural gas extracted is produced at the same time as oil.
If oil prices fall too low, US production of oil from shale is likely to drop (as it did in 2020), and with it the production of natural gas. With low oil prices, US natural gas extraction is also likely to lag. In this scenario, the natural gas necessary to support the hoped-for rise in natural gas exports won’t be available.
With both high oil prices and high US natural gas prices, consumers in the EU and elsewhere will have an especially difficult time affording the high cost of imported natural gas from the US. The problem is that if natural gas costs are already high before all of the cost of processing it to make LNG and shipping it long distance are incorporated, its cost will be doubly high for buyers in the EU (and elsewhere). Furthermore, the budgets of EU consumers will already be stretched by high oil prices, making high-cost LNG even more unaffordable.
[9] People believe that fossil fuels can rise arbitrarily high, but this is not true. Unaffordably high prices are the limiting factor for LNG exports.
Farmers are particularly strongly impacted by high oil and natural gas prices. High oil prices tend to make the cost of the diesel used to run farm equipment very high. High natural gas prices tend to make ammonia fertilizer very expensive. If both oil and natural gas prices are very high, the combination will tend to lead to very high-cost food. Citizens generally get very unhappy about very high-cost food. Farmers tend to protest, as farmers in Europe have done recently, because it becomes impossible for them to pass their high costs on to consumers.
There are clearly many other parts of the economy affected by high oil and natural gas prices. With high natural gas prices, electricity prices tend to be high. Families find their budgets stretched because of the high cost of both home heating and transportation. Food costs are likely to be high also. Economies tend to be pushed into recession by high oil and natural gas prices.
[10] A wise approach would be to go slowly in building LNG export capacity.
If excess LNG export capacity is built, those building the liquefaction plants will find the return on their investment very low.
In a self-organizing system, new technology is usually slowly adopted. Investors see a niche that appears to be profitable and build a little at a time. They wouldn’t try to put a huge amount of LNG export capacity in place without making certain that a little bit works. This same approach is used by manufacturers trying any new technology; they start on a small scale and then gradually scale up the process.
The US has already approved a very substantial amount of future LNG liquefaction capacity. It seems to me that there is a need to pause the acceptance of new applications for a while to see whether the many LNG facilities in the queue can actually be built and can sell the LNG they produce profitably. Perhaps profitable new LNG plants can only be built if firm long-term contracts at quite high prices can be signed.
Going slowly would seem to be an appropriate approach for now.
Now here is something I bet nobody will see coming.
Okay, so everyone seems to think this year will be another nightmare. Which leads me to thinking it will be awesome. I couldn’t figure out how though, and then it hit me.
DOOM SPENDING!
Just think about it. The majority of cool aid drinkers deep down know they are doomed.
And what would you do if you thought you were doomed? = SPEND YOUR MONEY! (can’t take it with you)
Right?
And obviously, the cool aid crowd has plenty to spare.
Assuming we don’t have another pandemic and all that jazz. (wild card)
I confess I bought a little more fency bottles of wine than reasonable, despite the high prices, thinking : what the …, why should I invest money for my retirement years that will probably never be.
I never suggest that people “save for retirement.” It seems like a concept that has to go away very soon.
I betcha loads of people are spending as if there is no future… makes sense
China cuts mortgage-linked lending rate by record amount to aid property market
Five-year loan prime rate reduction unlikely to offer imminent relief to flagging home sales, analysts say https://archive.md/t28Uo#selection-1587.0-1593.106
I noticed an article in the new Economist.
https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/20/global-firms-are-eyeing-asian-alternatives-to-chinese-manufacturing
It points out that the average hourly wage in China is now over $8 per hour, while the average hourly wage is between $2 and $3 per hour in other South Asian countries. I don’t know whether this image is behind a pay wall.
https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=600,quality=80,format=auto/content-assets/images/20230225_WBC032.png
The thing is that the lifestyle in China is in no way similar to that in other Southeast Asian countries. For one thing, China is colder. China needs to provide winter heat for much of its population. (Wuhan and south does not get winter heat. People wear their coats inside in winter.) The buildings in China need to be built in a more sturdy fashion.
I have been to India, and the difference between China and India is utterly amazing. China comes across as modern, in many ways. India is very, very poor in comparison.
China has undertaking an immense building project to try to bring the lifestyles of its people up to close to that of the “First World” countries, with nice paved roads, airports, fast trains, and beautiful shopping malls. But the people of China cannot really afford this lifestyle, even on a little over $8 per hour wages. China can no longer compete with $2 to $3 per hour wages, with all of the material things it is providing. In fact, it is hitting resource limits, which are a real problem. And most of this has been financed with debt.
China is being… f789ed. It’s game over
But then so is the US… and the EU etc..
What if….
When Charles kicks off… we nominate Hoolio to be the new king of England?
What if….
I should add, with the high prices and $8 per hour wages, it is no wonder that sales are hitting limits. Lower interest rates is a band aid, but there is still a big problem.
Extra Full RE tard now….
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/meaningfull/202309/ozempic-for-your-kids
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/FVbkQT8XoAA5aR.jpg
It was either that or another photo of Super Snatch and her fester
Strange world!
SARS versions begin to emerge that overcome the most important virulence reducing antibodies https://www.rintrah.nl/sars-versions-begin-to-emerge-that-overcome-the-most-important-virulence-reducing-antibodies/
The abnormal antibody response persists https://www.rintrah.nl/the-abnormal-antibody-response-persists/
From the first article, it would seem that temporarily adopting a vegan diet would be protective against the new more virulent version of Covid. We need to stay away from the sugar molecule that we get from eating food from cows.
Delightful!!! I don’t really care what the mechanism is… I just want the dying to start.
So what’s going to happen now?
In the weeks ahead, we’re going to see versions of SARS2 spread that have improved their ability to establish chronic infections. There are multiple routes for this. The BA.2.86 versions can take the backbone of the other versions. But equally important, there’s a very easy path to improve the Furin cleavage site (S:679R), thereby making it easier to spread from one cell to another.
These increasingly chronic infections are hard to test for and they’re associated with other secondary viral and bacterial infections. A lot of the observed pneumonia in people right now is SARS2 that’s simply going unrecognized.
Eventually, we will see the same thing as we recently saw in South Africa: These persistent infections will end up with shorter loops in the N-Terminal Domain, turning this virus into something more similar to the original SARS. You will see deletions emerge in these regions: 14-26 (N1), 141-156 (N3) and 246-260 (N5).
You may also see mutations of amino acids to Serine or Threonine, either within these regions, or around them. Once you see this happen, you can expect a rapid increase in virulence. It will be impossible to deny something is seriously wrong. An awful lot of people will get very sick simultaneously.
Once we reach this point, there will be no places left where antibodies can bind and neutralize the Spike protein, because the whole RBD either looks similar to our own amino acids, or is shielded by the glycans. Binding to the glycans seems to be insufficient to neutralize the Spike protein, but causes autoimmune problems, as these antibodies also bind to your own cells glycans.
Because people’s immune systems have spent the past three years, devoting more and more of their limited capacity to this adaptive immune response of antibodies and T cells, proliferating these cells at the cost of the innate immune system’s ability to do its job, now treating this Spike protein as if it were a kind of strange new bee venom or pollen that is continually showing up in our lungs somehow, the loss of these immunogenic regions of the N-Terminal Domain would suddenly leave most people in highly vaccinated Western countries with no protection.
https://www.rintrah.nl/why-people-are-now-constantly-sick-all-the-time/
Why people are now constantly sick all the time
There are some pretty pictures here
https://www.rintrah.nl/why-people-are-now-constantly-sick-all-the-time/
Breaking News! Robin Windsor: Strictly Come Dancing professional dies aged 44!!!!
I bet that was sudden.
And unexpected.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-68346057
Apparently he’d suffered long term depression. Maybe he committed sewerage pipes.
And to think he was such a a nice boy too.
I am so SADS hahahahahaha
They hint at the cause of death:
He was forced to pull out of Strictly Come Dancing in 2014 after suffering ongoing back problems.
Oh yes of course… he was a very unhealthy man… no wonder he died… back problems and all that… probably had diabetes and heart disease… or maybe he ODed… choose one
Our immune systems are tricked into thinking that the bad effects that are occurring within the body are from something like an allergen, which the body should ignore, instead of killing the cells giving rise to the bad effects.
Now why would they make a ‘vaccine’ that does such a thing????
1850 AD: Using steam engines and locomotives humanity has finally found a way to harness the dense energy of fossilized, concentrated sunshine: coal. The industrial revolution, started on the back of still abundant mineral resources and the power of low entropy fossil fuels, catapulted western civilization into an age of high tech, towards the “Star Trek Future”. https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/entropy-a-revelation-800feb6512e4
Almost all humans believe the Industrial Revolution was a great achievement.
That’s because they are f789ing MOREONS.
And if I tried to explain to them why it was not they’d stare at me like a re tard ed 4 yr old
Believe it or not, in ancient Imperial City of Rome a steam “engine” was invented and shown to the Roman Emperor Vespasian for amusement purposes to entertain. It was suggested it could be modified to do “work”, like for building, monument construction. Immediately, he dismissed the idea saying, “If that is done, what well all the common folks do?”
Reminds me of the FTX commercial with Larry David..”Ah, I don’t think so…”
It would have been useless to the Romans economically. Steam engines only created growth because they had a new abdundant energy source other than wood.
“Hillary says Trump will turn US military on Americans”
https://www.rt.com/news/592710-trump-military-dictator-clinton-nato/
They always accuse their opponents of doing what they themselves are guilty of. You’ve been warned.
Just like they did for gas chamber (the portable gas chamber was invented by a CHEKA Jew during the Lenin years to quickly dispatch Christian Russians in the White Sea area).
Alinsky rules.
She knows them all by heart.
Ecologist Allan Savory: “We’re Going To Kill Ourselves Because Of Stupidity!”
He also says:
“People coming out of the university with a master’s degree or a PhD, you take them into the field and they literally don’t believe anything unless it’s a peer-reviewed paper. It’s the only thing they accept.
And you say to them, ‘But let’s observe, let’s think, let’s discuss.’
They don’t do it. ‘Is it in a peer-reviewed paper or not?’
That’s their view of science.
I think it’s pathetic.”
I agree with him.
https://rumble.com/v4e74f3-ecologist-allan-savory-were-going-to-kill-ourselves-because-of-stupidity.html
Alan Savory was one of my dearest mentors. I remember spending much time with him having principles of observation based ecology hammered into my young skull.
Alans great contribution is the truthful observation that on 2/3 of earths land surface (the brittle drylands) that large herding animals are the lynch pin of the entire ecology…..remove those massive herds moving under constant attack from predators…..and you will destroy the ecology and get degraded deserts……
How he has managed to stay sane for all these years while trying to explain clearly visible truths to morons….I have no idea.
Death to the dirt grubbers.
Glucose level spikes and sugar cravings:
https://youtu.be/J6KHmymKE9M?si=DvNcl1DQdQglX0W6
But MG, my Twinkies make life worth living! Paula Poundstone on NPR radio
Twinkie is an American snack cake, described as “golden sponge cake with a creamy filling”. It was formerly made and distributed by Hostess Brands. Wikipedia
Size: about 3.9 inches seriouseats.com
Created by: James Dewar
Invented: 1930; 94 years ago
Main ingredients: Wheat flour, sugar, corn syrup, niacin, water, high fructose corn syrup, eggs, corn starch, shortening, and others
In addition to Captain Crunch, Fruit Loops, Lucky Charms, Frosted Flakes, which I ate growing up as a child…I became a sugar addict almost immediately…ain’t stopping now in my 60s …We are going to die soon anyway..per Fast Eddie…what is soon is hard to determine… probably the same as President Bill Clinton would answer
You tell him Mike. We have all figured out MG is after our Twinkies. Perhaps even our recliners, energy drinks and Iphones. I can not stand for that.
When you are o.k., no problem, but when your back or knees suffer etc., then it is time to reconsider.
Believe me I’m at the age to notice those things. Numerous friends and associates with issues, all in their 60s.
Once your health goes, it is very hard to regain it back as you age…the health care system will keep you breathing to profit from your misery.
You will not have a life …
Yeah, man! What’s the point of living if you can’t eat yourself to death?
I prefer not to die riddled with diabetes heart disease and other ailments that result in me feeling like death warmed in the years prior to death
And I would never disgrace myself by being obese
enjoy your chemical sugar fix though.. not everyone can be Great
Need some trivia:
Long live 8 track!
Voyagers’ journeys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leiqMYUOOUQ
Literally, “Far Out!”
Dennis L.
Things that make Fast Eddy want to beat a MOREON to death with a baseball bat….
So I pops into the dealer for an issue on a Hilux …. Lexus salesman spots him and asks if I am ready to buy the UX… I says… how much did you say the battery replacement costs? (he said 2-3k … I know it’s 7-8k)….
This time he says ‘not sure’… f789 you … I’m thinking…
So I says not interest in anything with a battery EV or Hybrid….
Why not he asks… they are great.
Well I says… so the hybrid battery has a warranty for 8 years… and I know the current cost is pushing 8k… so when I go to sell the thing if it’s near or past 8 years old… who would want to buy something with a battery – knowing full well that they don’t hold a charge after a certain point so they will be facing a very large bill… they’ll walk away for ask for a whopping discount…
He says — the batteries don’t generally degrade… oh ya I says… my phone is less than two years old and it’s degraded… it’s the same tech…
He says well you don’t know for sure if you will need a new battery after 8 yrs…
I says – ya … you don’t know — that’s my point. So no batteries thks.
I wanted to tell him it’s moot cuz we will all be dead… I also wanted to tell him he said it was 2-3k for a replacement … then smash his face with a baseball bat
A few years ago I was repairing a car for a customer with a Chevy Volt. The batteries had failed within the warranty period and the cost to the customer would have been over $20K but it was replaced under the factory warranty.
That Lexus sales rep is FOS.
What do you think of the Leaf? Those batteries seem to becoming sort of a cottage industry.
They seem simple, yes, I am aware of heating issues.
Dennis L.
ONLY MOREONS buy EVS. OMBE
It’s a hybrid so not as costly as an EV …
These would be USD… haha… resale value will be shite…
Lexus Hybrid Battery Replacement Cost
Some may find themselves shocked at the sticker price when it comes to purchasing a replacement Lexus hybrid battery. According to Lexus, the MSRP on a drive motor battery pack is close to $5,000 – sometimes even up to $7,000 depending on the model. Individual dealers set their own prices, so it can sometimes cost even more.
https://exclusivelyhybrid.com/lexus-hybrid-battery-replacement-cost/
After the ridiculous judgement against President Trump of around $350 million, interest accruing daily and no appeal until paid, the time has surely come for Americans to take up arms against their government and their politicized judiciary.
There is no moral authority left to govern.
The award certainly looks out of place compared to the supposed crime.
“no appeal until paid” … I don’t know law … is that real?
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-civil-fraud-trial-decision-02-16-24/index.html
Democrats need to start getting whacked for this kind of behaviour.
More Onasis:
“To be successful, keep looking tanned, live in an elegant building(even if you’re in the cellar), be seen in smart restaurants(even if you only nurse one drink) and if you borrow, borrow big.”
Well, generalizing on the last statement, the US has it made
“I’ve just been a machine for making money. I seem to have spent my life in a golden tunnel looking for the outlet which would lead to happiness. But the tunnel kept going on. After my death there will be nothing left. ”
Some things for kul to think about.
Jackie passed at 64, but at a very good address.
Dennis L.
Someone who left no legacy. His only remaining descendant is 39 with no mention of progeny. After her death everything will go to her half siblings, whose father being a well known playboy.
You chase celebrities, I chase family lines.
My legacy as a nobody will last for centuries on the planet in terms of waste products; solids, liquids and greenhouse gasses…future generations, if they are any, will how could we do this in such a short lifespan and curse us all for it..
Plus he made his money in an expanding system, and now the resources are contracting, notwithstanding your mythic starships. Nothing has been brought back to earth, save for a shard of rock from an asteroid.
I am not impressed by people like Onassis, Khasshoggi, Trump or other fleeting celebrities of the day. In the greater scheme of things they are just showmen, with not much to show for the future.
kul, they had a real present.
Dennis L.
Ari Onasis died at the ripe young age of 69 in 1975 from a condition called myasthenia gravis. Unbeknown to Onasis and his doctors, vtamin D supplementation is a promising treatment of myasthenia gravis, although vitamin D deficiency is not the main cause of the the disease.
Moving on to Jackie O, she died, as you mentioned at the even younger age of 64 from soon after she was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma in 1994. If she were doing that sort of thing today, the Internet would be calling it turbo cancer and blaming the jabs. According to the NIH, “Vitamin D insufficiency is common in the United States, with low levels linked in some studies to higher cancer incidence, including non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL). Recent data also suggest that vitamin D insufficiency is related to inferior prognosis in some cancers, although there are no data for NHL.”
The above information suggests that Vitamin D supplementation could have added years or decades to Ari and Jackies lives, and that had she been a supplement junkie, Jackie might still be with us today.
But JMS says Vitamin D supplements are the products of chemical factories and as such he won’t touch them, and JMS is an honorable man…. 🙂
Meanwhile, Lascall has pointed out that vitamin D is an endocrine disruptor and that “research has shown zero benefits from vitamin D supplementation, when compared to benefits recorded by sun exposure,” while Ivanislav has told us that “vitamin D levels are correlated with melatonin levels, and people are erroneously zeroing in on vitamin D as the important factor.”
So perhaps Ari and Jackie should have spent more time sunbathing in summer and sitting in front of a nice wood fire in the cold season, not worrying and being happy?
Could it be… that the PR Team … tasked with not wanting us to live to 100… has planted negative articles regarding supplements?
Would they do such a thing???? Have they done this before????
One view is that vitamin D levels in the blood are a marker of metabolic health (cells/mitochondria ability to create ATP energy). Also Vitamin D, calcium and magnesium seem tightly coupled. You can raise blood D levels significantly by taking a biologically available form of magnesium.
Vitamin D also acts as a hormone.
I raised mine from 30ng/ml to 50ng/ml after 2 months in Greece in September and October. I’m not sure it would have gone any higher. The sunlight of course has added benefits such as the creation of EZ structured water in the cells lining the vascular system. Plus the free electrons from the ground if you’re on the beach counter the reactive oxygen species generated by the sunlight.
That’s good information and worth considering, thanks!
I’m reminded that Dr. Carolyn Dean, author of The magnesium Miracle—Discover the Missing Link to Total Health, is a strong advocate of magnesium supplementation, but she warns AGAINST taking Vitamin D supplements.
Regarding sunbathing, on the balance of evidence, it seems to be extremely beneficial to humans in moderate amounts, and yet for decades people in the industrialized world were warned to fear the rays of the Sun as if they were Count Dracula. Especially women, who are probably more worried about developing wrinkles or freckles than cancer. They walk around in summer as if they were subject to strict Islamic dress codes or, failing that, wearing oversized sombreros that keep their whole body permanently in the shade .
I know many people who picked up their health advice from the mass media in the 1980s and 90s and to this day avoid sunshine like the plague, along with butter, egg yolks and animal fats.
Israeli satellite state, the USA, is becoming an international laughing stock.
Its decrepid spectre President can hardly string two words together. It’s not nice to laugh at the old and infirm but he is running around with the nuclear codes.
Why don’t the Americans get rid of him? Possibly, he accurately represents the country as it is now. A failing bully who has eaten so much from others’ plates that it is a bloated shadow of what it was.
The only decision this presidential abomination is capable of making is whether to suit up in Pampers or Huggies to start the day.
He is the modern day Nero watching his country burn and blaming Trump.
Strange world we live in!
Nero of course was one of the most progressive emperors. You have read too many history books written by the then oligarchy.
Don’t worry da handlers took the codes off da puppet
that’s all fake … he’s play acting…
Sepsis, as a diagnosis, has several strongly suggestive qualities in light of the recent jabby unpleasantness. First, there’s no test for it, so doctors can diagnose it based on their subjective analysis of symptoms, which could be useful if you wanted to conceal certain death statistics. Second, the most common mechanism of ultimate septic death is blood clots and leaky blood vessels. So. Third, historically speaking, the most rapidly-progressing cases are always seen in the most immunocompromised patients, like elderly folks already in the hospital for some other condition.
Rapid sepsis isn’t normal in young, healthy, 30-year old women like Gina. In fact, it’s super, super rare. Young people need to have really, really bad luck to encounter the disastrous syndrome.
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/immunity-monday-february-19-2024
I would agree: We shouldn’t see young healthy people dying of sepsis. It sounds like their immune system got wrecked along the way, somewhere. It would seem like the vaccinated have a problem.
To reiterate… cuz it makes me laugh (hahahahaha) … it’s the Rat Juice of course… but never in a million years would these f789ing MOREONS make THAT connection … (hahahaha … again)…
So they keep on shooting more of it!!!! This is my dream come true!
These are deaths in percentages from the diseases you mentioned in the US.
Here are the percentages of deaths in the US from the conditions you mentioned:
Sepsis: The death rate from sepsis among adults aged 65 and over was 330.9 deaths per 100,000 population in 20211.
Breast Cancer: The chance that a woman will die from breast cancer is about 1 in 40 (about 2.5%)2.
Prostate Cancer: About 1 in 44 men will die of prostate cancer3.
Bowel (Colorectal) Cancer: The death rate from colorectal cancer was 13.1 per 100,000 men and women per year4.
Please note that these statistics can vary based on factors like age, race, and overall health. It’s also important to remember that many people with these conditions do not die from them, especially if they are detected early and treated effectively.
So death from sepsis is .3%, BC about 2.5%, Prostate Cancer 2.2%, Bowel Cancer .01%.
Copilot did not list death percentages for those under 30, stated sepsis in children is 18 per day. Estimates over all 350K people die/year from Sepsis. Assume US population 350m, then death rate is about .1% annually in US.
Didn’t look where your numbers came from. Mine, Copilot.
Dennis L.
Now that you’ve admitted you’re just copy-pasting AI-generated outputs, how do we know they’re correct? Did you check an underlying source? Of course not …
Sepsis now causes more deaths than breast, prostate and bowel cancer combined. (While sepsis) is most common in the elderly … studies suggest that just under half of all sepsis cases occur in working-age adults. https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/immunity-monday-february-19-2024
Da new Normal
I know a guy who begged me to Shoot the Juice of Rat so I could play in a hockey tournament for over 40’s… who got sepsis… they were contemplating cutting his arm off… last time I saw him he was finally out of the hospital but had a catheter sticking out of his arm… he told me that it was a drip line directly into his heart –and they were using it to mainline antibiotics into his body…
F789 me….
My response was to look at him with the dazed re tar ded look that you see on the faces of Vaxxed MOREONS when you try to explain to them that they are poisoning themselves… ‘cept twern’t no re tard behind that look … rather the look was concealing the disgust I felt for the utter f789ing stooopidity of this Mega MOREON… (remember he mocked me for not taking the Juice of the Sewer Rat…). No pity whatsoever… a strange fascination … tinged with admiration for his extreme Stoopidity…
He F789ed himself. No idea what state he is in now as I rabidly avoid the Vaxxers cuz they shed there disease — and I don’t want no Vaxxer disease within a mile of my temple
Concerning GW… this is by far the coldest summer we have experienced in NZ… in January it snowed in the mountains… we’ve had a space heater on in the mornings in the middle of summer… I generally have a heavy jumper and long pants with socks on in the morning …
We are struggling to get berries to ripen due to the cold (down to 4 or 5C some nights)… when they do ripen they are tart to the point of being inedible.
The garden is a total disaster — lettuce is barely growing — tomatoes likewise… in the orchard the fruit is stunted….
A warm klimate is a GOOD thing.. stuff grows
I talked over Skype to someone in China shortly after Chinese New Year. My friend told about what a cold winter that they had had in Beijing. Or perhaps, he meant China in general.
Weather seems to vary a great deal, from place to place, and from year to year.
Clearly, some parts of the globe have been cold recently. These may or may not get into the averages that we hear mentioned in the global warming hysteria.
Well then, Fast Eddie, in that case you should have stayed put there and not move to the frying pan, so to speak.
Make sure you post if you experience the opposite in Perth
Fast Eddy says he’s bored and cold… and wants to move on … therefore I must move on… regardless.
I predict that Perth will be too hot and very dull. The locals will be awful.
I predict Perth will not be as dull as Queenstown … and it will be close to Asia … and more bucket listing
Exploring doing this https://duckduckgo.com/?q=pamir+highway&iax=images&ia=images
Oh my, it just disappeared.. just like that…
Cap Allon agrees. Some of his headlines:
(Details behind paywall , It was free for a long time).
(It seems absurd when he says just the opposite of global warming is happening from 2020- 2050. Then it makes sense: we never said GW, we said climate change.
ANTARCTICA CRASHES BELOW -50C (-58F); CHINA’S FROZEN HIGHWAYS; THICK ICE TRAPS KILLER WHALES IN NORTHERN JAPAN; HISTORIC SNOW IN NOVA SCOTIA; + NEW STUDY FINDS “CLIMATE DENIERS” AREN’T LYING TO THEMSELVES — SURPRISES RESEARCHERS
FRIGID GREENLAND; MANN CASE SEEKS TO PREVENT PUBLIC PARTICIPATING IN SCIENTIFIC DEBATE; + IRELAND TIGHTENS NOOSE AROUND FREE SPEECH
FEBRUARY 15, 2024 CAP ALLON14 COMMENTS
The establishment doesn’t want us talking anything contentious, and they’ll slap us with the ambiguous offence of ‘hate crime’ and kick us from the town square if we dare to think out loud.
Another freezing morning here in Ardernian Hell… WTF… I thought Hell was supposed to be hot????
Musk made a comment on Lex Fridman that nature is murder, everywhere one looks or something similar.
Headline today:
“A new study is shedding light on the violent history of Scandinavia which saw multiple waves of mass murder across Denmark in just a thousand years.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ancient-dna-analysis-shows-how-scandinavia-s-first-farmers-wiped-out-hunter-gatherer-population/ar-BB1iuzFZ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=5a5aa1d3a7e9464aa7f2201e0583e713&ei=11
Historically, farming was a seven day a week job involving physical labor, some with a pitchfork. One can imagine a farmer might have an advantage with a long handled pitchfork and strong arms and back against even a shorter sword. Warriors can’t war that much, too much attrition and constant practice is probably boring.
Farming is not romantic, it is hard, low profit margin work. Land is a bit better if owned outright; build a robot to cut the grass, working on that one. But, supply chains, supply chains, always a chain of one type or another.
Dennis L.
it seems to me that musk is conflating nature and human nature. humans are definitely murderous shitbags, nature not so much. vegetarians are much commoner than carnivores, so by biomass, it’s much more normal to be a grass muncher than a meat eater, and that’s despite centuries of humans wiping out the easiest prey. you might argue that the grass munchers are more likely to end in the mouths of the meat eaters and we’re therefore back to red in tooth and claw, but again i can think of examples where that’s massively wrong; before humans caused the extinction of passenger pigeons, people reported such massive flocks of these birds that the sun was blotted out, for 3 days in a row. there’s tain’t that many eagles to even dent the population of those pigeons. humans, on the other hand, are very far from being in balance with their environments and do massive damage to it….i suspect spiritual reasons for that, perhaps the gnostics had it right and the biblical god (aka the demiurge) is more akin to the devil.
Humans are weird omnivores; evolution seems to favour specialists over generalists.
All animal species were originally carnivores and most still are; species rarely shift between types of diet; herbivory is much more recent.
So carnivores are normal, herbivores are new-fangled and omnivores are just weird.
We have to remember that ‘nothing means anything’ and beware of projecting human value perspectives onto nature itself, be they moral, aesthetic or ‘whatever’.
Basically nature is what it is and it does not give a sh/t what we think of it or even of ourselves.
https://www.futurity.org/omnivores-evolution-of-diet-animals-2140632/
> BEING AN OMNIVORE IS ACTUALLY QUITE ODD
The first animal likely was a carnivore, new research finds. Humans, along with other omnivores, belong to a rare breed.
What an animal eats is a fundamental aspect of its biology, but surprisingly, the evolution of diet had not been studied across the animal kingdom until now.
The study is a deep dive into the evolutionary history of more than one million animal species going back 800 million years.
The study reveals several surprising key insights:
– Many species living today that are carnivorous—those that eat other animals—can trace this diet back to a common ancestor more than 800 million years ago.
– A plant-based, or herbivorous, diet is not the evolutionary driver for new species that scientists believed it to be.
– Closely related animals tend to share the same dietary category—plant-eating, meat-eating, or both. This finding implies that switching between dietary lifestyles is not something that happens easily and often over the course of evolution.
The researchers scoured the literature for data on the dietary habits of more than a million animal species, from sponges to insects and spiders to house cats. They classified a species as carnivorous if it feeds on other animals, fungi, or protists (single-celled eukaryotic organisms, many of which live on bacteria). The researchers classified species as herbivorous if they depend on land plants, algae, or cyanobacteria for food, and omnivorous if they eat a mixture of carnivorous and herbivorous diets.
The scientists then mapped the vast dataset of animal species and their dietary preferences onto an evolutionary tree built from DNA-sequence data to untangle the evolutionary relationships between them.
…. The survey suggests that across animals, carnivory is most common, including 63% of species. Another 32% are herbivorous, while humans belong to a small minority, just 3%, of omnivorous animals.
TRACING THE EVOLUTION OF EATING MEAT
The researchers were surprised to find that many of today’s carnivorous species trace this diet back all the way to the base of the animal evolutionary tree, more than 800 million years, predating the oldest known fossils that paleontologists have been able to assign to animal origins with certainty.
“We don’t see that with herbivory,” says corresponding author John Wiens, a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology. “Herbivory seems to be much more recent, so in our evolutionary tree, it appears more frequently closer to the tips of the tree.”
…. OMNIVORES ARE SUPER RARE
…. The study also revealed that omnivorous (“eating everything”) diets popped up rarely over the course of 800 million years of animal evolution, hinting at the possible explanation that evolution prefers specialists over generalists.
…. This need for specialization might explain why omnivores, such as humans, are rare, according to the authors. It might also explain why diets have often gone unchanged for so long.
“There is a big difference between eating leaves all the time and eating fruits every now and then,” Wiens says. “The specializations required to be an efficient herbivore or carnivore might explain why the two diets have been so conserved over hundreds of millions of years.”
If “nothing means anything” why ought we to be “beware of projecting human value perspectives onto nature itself, be they moral, aesthetic or ‘whatever’.”
Is this not what every gardener and every farmer continually does?
moss33.neocities.org/kyoto
Right, we we impose subjective value perspectives when we grow cucumbers or cut heads off animals and we evolved that capacity to faciltate our own organic life processes.
They provide no basis to judge or to condemn life processes and their varied expression in nature as if we were doing anything but making stuff up and talking nonsense.
By the same token it does not ‘really matter’ if people talk nonsense but we naturally assume the posture that value judgements should facilitate our lives and veganism is problematic.
But whatever people want to do lol.
the imposition of subjective value perspectives … provide(s) no basis to judge or to condemn life processes
subjective value process I’m thinking of can be intangible like Truth or particularly Beauty. The gardener imposes his values condemning weeds with the drone, no?
Killing weeds is not the same thing as judging and condemning life processes like growing/ killing plants or animals for food. Adolescents have not fully devloped the capacity for precise logic and they tend to imagine that they are being ‘deep’ or ‘radical’ or in connection with ‘truth’ when they struggle to understand what is being said when it is just that their brains are not fully developed yet and they tend to imagine that they are being ‘clever’ when they are just being dim. You can expect to encounter a lot of that sort of stuff around veganism as it statistically tends to be a brief adolescent fad that appeals only to them.
I wonder if the fact that humans cook part of their food made an omnivore diet “work” better.
We know that chimps eat the insects that land on their food. In fact, they seem to savor them, according to some accounts. So we seem to be related biologically to animals that are also omnivores, to some extent.
The reason the article suggests that the reason why there is specialization in animal or plant products is because the teeth and digestive apparatus will need to be adapted to handle the particular kind of food. But if the food is cooked first, cell membranes on vegetables are broken down, making them more digestible. The bigger teeth and gut are no longer needed. This seems to be what allowed humans to have bigger brains.
I’ve read about human anatomy and digestion. People may think that humans are weak when compared to great apes and other wild animals, but the ability to eat such a wide variety of foods is a key adaptation that not many creatures are capable of. Humans, physically weak in muscle power have unusual talents for survival with a sophisticated digestive process that can digest a wide variety of potential foods. Interesting, when you think about it. At the same time, humans are so fragile compared to say aligators, that can survive the loss of a limb in bacteria filled water. Humans can die of infection from a small wound without antibiotics, yet we consider ourselves superior. Well alligators do lack a winning personality.
it seems to me that musk is conflating nature and human nature. humans are definitely murderous shitbags, nature not so much.
Nature is worse than we are. As far as animals go, we are by no means the most violent.
oh? Do other species drop atomic bombs on cities… or fire bomb cities killing tens of thousands?
Other mammals kill a lot more of each other than we do, yes.
https://www.everythingmixed.com/20-animals-that-are-now-extinct-because-of-humans/
which other mammals have caused the extinctions of hundreds of other species?
In recent times, cats have wiped out quite a few exotics. And then blamed humans for giving them a lift into a previously pristine environment. Rats and pigs have also got a reputation for causing havoc when they enter new lands.
Going back to before humans were around, natural selection was giving out Darwin Awards to all sorts of lifeforms for billions of years, which is another way of saying that some other species killed them off by depriving them of their lives or their livelihoods.
which other mammals have caused the extinctions of hundreds of other species?
I’m saying there are other mammals that kill more of their own species than we do of our own.
no other mammal decides to kill those of its own species living on another continent
no other mammal decides to kill those of its own species living on another continent
Because they can’t.
Do we eat the bodies of those we fire bomb or drop nukes on?
Nah.. we do it for the sheer joy of incinerating other humans.
Hurrah for humans… we are so f789ing amazing!!! Look at us! Look at us!!!
Do we eat the bodies of those we fire bomb or drop nukes on?
Not usually but some humans do eat the bodies of their enemies.
I think of hunter-gatherers as tall, and early farmers as being short.
But it may be that early farmers were more able to organize themselves in the fight against the hunter gatherers. They had experience in organizing farms and the economy in general. They may have had more tools, as well.
Why the fortune of today’s winners will be eternal
https://greyenlightenment.com/2017/08/09/will-the-silicon-valley-tech-fortunes-dissolve-like-the-rockefeller-carnegie-and-vanderbilt-fortunes-no/
https://greyenlightenment.com/2023/12/04/why-wealth-may-have-been-more-fleeting-and-dynamic-in-the-past-compared-to-stasis-today/
>Tech benefits from being less volatile and susceptible to competition and macro factors, scales better, and has higher profit margins. Winner-take-all markets means less risk from competition once a threshold of size and market saturation is attained. In high or low inflation, demand for mobile ads is high, and Facebook usage does not fall. There are many more alternatives, hence competition and lower margins, when it comes to clothes, toothbrushes, cars, food, or suppliers of ore, compared to top social networks, search engines, Amazon, or Uber.
I will add my two cents.
In the old days, luxury goods were really luxury. Kings sent ships far away to get jewelry, and hunters rode from Moscow to Alaska to get fur. They were not that cheap.
But now luxury goods are much cheaper. Not cheap to ordinary mortals but cheap relative to people who bring millions per year.
It is said if someone has $20 million now, the person can live like a billionaire. He/she might not be able to afford learjets, but otherwise he/she can live a life similar to people of greater wealth.
The mega wealthy can just live in enclaves of their own and never have to deal with the ordinary people, unlike the rich of the old who had to deal with servants, etc, every day. So there is no obligation for them to be profligate, and indeed there are people with great wealth who keep low profile and live in ordinary houses and driving ordinary cars, and only their cellar and vault have their true wealth.
Such fortune will survive the end of BAU, since like Bill Gates, they would have purchased enough land and built enough allies in the countryside. If necessary, they might marry their daughters to the local notable, a method often used by Chinese Emperors who send their (mostly adopted) daughters (actually relatives) to the chiefs of nomads, making them the Emperor’s allies.
Good luck! Tech wealth needs continuous electricity. This will likely be leaving us in not very long. It needs supply lines around the world. This is another thing that is disappearing. Computers also need supply lines around the globe. Tech is as dependent on resources as any prior industry.
Gail has a reply,
I continue to move into high tech, much/most of what I am currently using is from China, this includes tech support. Supply lines are real and 1177 by Cline is always in the back of my mind.
Some quotes from Onasis.
“If women didn’t exist, all the money in the world would have no meaning.”
“We must free ourselves of the hope that the sea will ever rest. We must learn to sail in high winds.”
“You are not truly wealthy unless you earn money while you are sleeping.” Strongly agree, that is the function of capital which someone else requires and will pay for the use thereof.
I personally always did better during hard times, my thoughts were and remain, “If we are going to all die, there is no risk, chose wisely and spread your bets to the best 20%.” Perhaps this is the reason for investing most of my remaining time in high tech.
Regarding the first quote, women like to dance, learning to dance is very expensive. Even as an old man I can still move, and sometimes move in. Now, where are my dance shoes?
Dennis L.
Such fortune will survive the end of BAU, since like Bill Gates, they would have purchased enough land and built enough allies in the countryside.
I’m sure the heavily armed raiders will be respectful of Bill’s ownership rights even if there are no longer any courts or police.
What will conquer the undying loyalty of those raiders is being in the presence of a god like figure, whose crisp, bug free, well organized inexpensive software graces us all. Not to mention his selfless work on behalf of mankind, specially in the medical field.
Entropy , mineral blindness and ” The Empty Quarter ” .15 minute read . Mr B , the latest .
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/entropy-a-revelation-800feb6512e4
What the author writes about is the entropy cycle. This is really at least part of the reason for the overshoot and collapse cycle. Too much population is part of it, too, as is declining return on energy investment.
Pretty much everything is renewable over a long enough time frame. Certainly trees regrow, and to a significant extent fertility is regained. The rock cycle seems to explain some things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rock_cycle
One thing I cannot understand is how concentrations of ore are produced. It would seem like once the big concentrations are gone, they are gone. Except, we know that nature acts strangely. Somehow the concentrations were made in the first place. Nature seems to act in sudden spurts. If Nature could provide the concentrations in the first place, perhaps it can again.
We assume that once fossil fuels are out of our reach, they are gone forever. We don’t have any idea what will happen in geological time. Today, oil and gas companies cannot recover more than a small portion of oil and natural gas in the ground. Maybe more can be recovered in the future. With climate change, some coal and natural gas may be easier to access.
A much smaller population can get along with a smaller set of resources, if they are easily accessible. So, it may be able to start the cycle all over again.
Ores are formed by a combination of pressure, temperature, chemical reaction, and water. Some ores are simply buried asteroids, like the Sudbury mine in Canada. Of course they will re-form, give another billion years. Oil and coal will also re-form. For all of withnail’s pessimism it seems that plants have been around hundreds of millions of years, without any soil depletion whatsoever.
Agree, well put.
Dennis L.
Oil and coal will also re-form.
Oil will not. Conditions on earth are no longer suitable for oil. You need higher air temperature, higher air pressure, and the right shallow seas.
I disagree. Not in the quantities previously available of course, but plankton is thriving now in many shallow seas and dropping to the bottom.. Where does the notion that higher air pressure is needed? underwater it does not matter.
, but plankton is thriving now in many shallow seas and dropping to the bottom.
Doesn’t work unless you have a zero oxygen environment at the sea bed. You need shallow seas and higher temperatures for that.
Gail . ” A much smaller population can get along with a smaller set of resources, if they are easily accessible ” . This is the nutshell of this article . Overshoot is non _ reversible . ” The Final Countdown ”
From our point of view, it looks non-reversible. But a remnant of population can make it through a bottleneck, and perhaps make an economy grow again on a different basis. It, too, will have difficulty with overshoot.
Economic growth requires increasing energy and resource consumption. Is there another basis on which to grow an economy?
Supposed economic growth can be created by adding increasing amounts of debt and organizing the economy so that the vast majority of output of the economy goes to the top 1%. This passes for economic growth today.
The local economy does not use much resources because, to the extent possible, all manufacturing and resource extraction is outsourced to poorer countries, with lower wages.
This is how much of the “growth” of the “developed” economies has been taking place. But it is hollow growth. It cannot continue with failing supply lines.
Gail, you suggested that a remnant population might make it through the bottleneck and “perhaps make an economy grow again on a different basis” but what basis could an economy started by a remnant population grow? Although there is a lot of creative accounting today, the economy grows, in essence, by increasing resource consumption. Is there another way to grow an economy?
With a very small number of people, the people could become hunter gatherers again, on part of the land. The population could gradually grow, using the renewable resources available. It is possible to burn fallen limbs of trees to cook food, for example. The population would probably gradually increase, until it hits the food limits of the area.
Fortunately they will die of cancer… cuz the toxins remain toxic for thousands of years…
Right, Gail.So not really an economy in the way we think of an economy today. Got it.
Doomie P’s should stockpile cancer drugs…. or how about loads of Big Time Pain Killers… I hear advanced cancer is painful
nothing can grow without consumption of its immediate surrounding available resources.
if a nation chooses to grow, then eventually its population will outgrow itself, and attempt to take resources from elsewhere.
humankind has been doing this for 000s of years.
we were given an enormous boost by fossil fuels, but that didnt alter the underlying force of it
I wish I knew when the fireworks would start… and the dying…
I’m sort of concerned about how Marek’s killed the unvaxxed chickens…. this may mean that I don’t get the opportunity to laugh at the dying Vaxxers… cuz I’ll be dying along side them… shuddering at the thought…
Oh well … better than starving!!!
Medical opinion is that Marek’s is caused by a Herpes virus which survives for over 12 months in the environment.
Infected chickens shed the virus, which thanks to a “leaky” vaccine has evolved to the point where it will kill any unvaxed birds it comes into contact with.
It isn’t a respiratory virus but it can spread by aerosols as well as dander.
I was thinking that a better analog for Marek’s in humans might be chickenpox. The VZV (varicella zoster virus )vaccine has been shown to be leaky (i.e., it does not provide protective immunity to all vaccinated individuals). So one day, the unjabbed may all die of chickenpox or shingles.
I’d better bang out a scenario and send it off to a few Hollywood producers. All I need is a catchy title. “The Pox”? “Death Pox 2030”? “Plague of the Unvaxxed”? “A Pox on the Unvaxxed”,? “Not Just Horrible But Horribly Horrible!”? “They Died with Pus in Their Boots! (and Everywhere Else)”?
Marek’s was a result of using a leaky vaccine against a herpes virus…
Kinda like how we are using leaky vaccines against the Covid virus…
I fail to see how we do not end up with a similar outcome … actually a much worse outcome cuz we continue to deploy leaky vaccines.. over and over and over…
Why would – when our human version of Marek’s eventually emerges — this not call all the unvaxxed humans (as Marek’s does with chickens) … why would it not kill all the vaxxed humans (cuz the vax they are shooting targets a virus that no longer exists so will provide zero protection).
This is text book ‘How to exterminate a species’ stuff.
It could not be more obvious — they are actively attempting to extinct us
Over the past fifty years, Marek’s disease—an illness of fowl—has become fouler. Marek’s is caused by a highly contagious virus, related to those that cause herpes in humans. It spreads through the dust of contaminated chicken coops, and caused both paralysis and cancer. In the 1970s, new vaccines brought the disease the under control. But Marek’s didn’t go gently into that good night. Within ten years, it started evolving into more virulent strains, which now trigger more severe cancers and afflict chickens at earlier ages.
Andrew Read from Pennsylvania State University thinks that the vaccines were responsible. The Marek’s vaccine is “imperfect” or “leaky.” That is, it protects chickens from developing disease, but doesn’t stop them from becoming infected or from spreading the virus. Inadvertently, this made it easier for the most virulent strains to survive. Such strains would normally kill their hosts so quickly that they’d die out. But in an immunised flock, they can persist because their lethal nature has been neutered. That’s not a problem for vaccinated individuals. But unvaccinated birds are now in serious trouble.
This problem, where vaccination fosters the evolution of more virulent disease, does not apply to most human vaccines. Those against mumps, measles, rubella, and smallpox are “perfect:” They protect against disease and stop people from transmitting the respective viruses. “You don’t get onward evolution,” says Read. “These vaccines are very successful, highly effective, and very safe. They have been a tremendous success story and will continue to be so.”
He is more concerned about the next generation of vaccines that are being developed against diseases like HIV and malaria. People don’t naturally develop life-long immunity to these conditions after being infected, as they would against, say, mumps or measles. This makes vaccine development a tricky business, and it means that the resulting vaccines will probably leak to some extent. “This isn’t an argument against developing those vaccines, but it is an argument for ensuring that we carefully check for transmission,” says Read.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses
“People don’t naturally develop life-long immunity to these conditions after being infected, as they would against, say, mumps or measles. This makes vaccine development a tricky business, and it means that the resulting vaccines will probably leak to some extent.”
It would seem to me that researchers have no business trying to make vaccines against these diseases. They cannot work well!
They know that… that’s why they used these methods to create the Rat Juice…
They are taking the Marek’s situation .. and boosting it with steroids … to ensure that the Smoking Red Hot Variant emerges… the one that kills and kill and kills…
They want all humans gone… to reduce the suffering
What a crazy ending huh… this blows The Road to pieces…
I am far far far from being an expert in, or even a decent student of, virology.
One thing that occurs to me, though, is that things like chickenpox, mumps and measles occur after the germs that cause them get inside our bloodstreams and into our internal organs and do their dastardly damage there.
Where as colds and flus occur after the germs that cause them get into our nasal passages, throat, lungs, stomach or intestines—which are physically inside the body, but outside the skin or mucous layer that protects the body from the exterior. These viruses don’t usually get past that defensive system, apart from where inflammation, cuts or other damage gives them access.
A lot of symptoms of colds and flu are caused by the body’s immune response to the pathogen in the nose, throat, lungs, etc. For instance, headaches can be due to an inflammatory response in the body, leading to the release of various inflammatory substances. These substances can affect blood vessels, nerves, and tissues in the head, potentially leading to headache symptoms, even if the virus that started the cycle off is only in the airways.
So I am thinking that a respiratory virus would be unlikely to evolve into a Marek’s type 100%-kill-rate-in-the-unvaxed virus just be being allowed to evolve in the airways of immune-compromised serially vaxed individuals. And if it could do so, it would kill the individuals it evolved in before it had a chance to spread very far.
Anyway, I am not going to lose any sleep over the possibility.
We don’t have to subscribe to the “no virus” heresy in order to recognize that the “terrain” (body condition) is a more important than the “germ” (infectious agent) in getting a disease up and running. The simple observation that many infectious diseases are capable of killing the sick and weak while causing no symptoms in the healthy is unequivocal proof of that.
Why is Norman still swimming the channel and lifting bolders the size of SUVs while most British men of his age have names prefixed with “the late”? Obviously, it’s because Norman has The Right Stuff, terrain-wise.
The thing is … deploying leaky vaccines during a pandemic is a no no… it’s dangerous because it causes mutations
That’s why they vaccine for the flu before flu season.
This is established science… and we have an example of what can happen with Marek’s.
And what are we doing? We are deploying the leaky Covid Rat Juice repeatedly … causing mutations … vaxxing some more … and more .. and more … with leaky vaccines.
There is no doubt about what they are attempting to achieve here…
The only question is … will they succeed.
The richest person ever lived is someone who in the West probably have never heard of since he was Japanese.
Kodo Yodoya, also called Tastugoro, was a scion of the Yodoya merchant family whose founder became famous by providing the shogun sustenance when the latter was attacking Osaka. In return the first Yodoya got a monopoly on trading rice around Osaka for 10 years.
However that’s not how the Yodoyas got very rich.
Osaka is where the first option market was born. the Japanese invented the candlestick chart, used now by virtually all traders, in the Osaka rice market in late 1600s.
The Yodoyas lent money to feudal lords around Japan, and also sold derivatives which grew, grew and grew.
The last Yodoya was incompetent, and he apparently got into a fight over a woman the local shogunate magistrate coveted. The latter decided it was time to seize the Yodoya fortune and petitioned the shogun, who agreed in return for a cut to himself. The year was 1701.
Long story short, the Yodoya fortune was seized and tallied up. The total physical wealth amounted to close to what is now $100 million,
but the derivatives, which grew over and over the years, totaled “100 million kan”. A kan is an old Japanese measurement which was 1/4 of a ryo at that time. A ryo of gold was about 17.9 grams, but let’s use round numbers and call it half an ounce.
So Mr. Yodoya owned derivatives equivalent to 800 million ounces of gold, or $1.6 trillion in today’s money.
At that time the total GDP of Japan is estimated to be around $50 billion in today’s money, so Yodoya’s assets were worth 32 years of Japan’s GDP.
Not much is known about the last Yodoya after the shogunate, which also owned huge amount to him, repudiated all the debts and derivatives, but his fall did not collapse the Japanese economy or anything. There was actually a minor boom after that since the need to pay back the huge interests the Yodoya or his friends (there were others like him in smaller scale) had ceased.
However, if the last Yodoya, instead of wasting time on womanizing, had used his vast wealth to develop civilization , inviting the European traders at Nagasaki to his palace or establish some presence at there to start somethings, like today’s hedge funds do, things would have been quite different.
Kul,
A woman can be a very interesting experience, they come in many flavors.
Have a good woman, children and you have a connection with the universe.
You are probably one of the few who can name a number of the world’s richest people.
Give me a 160 IQ with some of the common sense I now have and the first billion would come quickly.
Dennis L.
I also disagree that womanizing is a waste of time.
The richest man who ever lived was named Temujin and rode stocky nondescript horses on the plains of Mongolia. He lived in a yak/camel felt tent and ordered many cities to be leveled. He despised civilized things but did keep a lot of iron smiths and shamans around him.
He owned more women and horses than any human being before or after.
He acknowledged that life was fleeting and his words have come down from 8 centuries past to grace war tomes and popular culture (something about driven enemies and female grief).
He also produced more children than anyone else known is history.
That was a rich man. Blessed by Crom.
I read a book about Genghis … apparently he had a team of advisors who would choose the finest hottest fittest amazing women in all the lands… for to 4nicate with… they examined them from head to toe (and in between) and discarded all but the flawless…
My life has felt so … empty… after reading that… but alas — you cannot unread what you have read…
Perhaps some shock treatments might help?
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/5a/4b/b0/5a4bb0658a8060cd72d3d1c1f21be0d6.gif
After so many, it feels like worlk
I doubt it ever would get banal
John Holmes would disagree,
Ron Jeremy too..
Turn them upsidedown they all look alike
Big difference between shagging burned out drug-addicted hoookers… and daily freshness
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/02/14/should-the-us-add-more-lng-export-approvals/comment-page-3/#comment-453339
@moss
Yes, that is true.
Most of the stocks of the larger companies are held by gigantic funds, like Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street, commanding trillions of dollars and owning shares of virtually all major companies you can name.
They have cornered the market and they WON’T sell since that means huge losses .
Logic does not apply anymore. It is now a new reality. Stock Prices will rise forever, even though real purchasing power might fall faster.
For all practical purposes banks and such funds own the world and they could conjure up the $7 trillion Sam Altman wants if they feel like it.
“it’s different this time” (again 😉
It was a spectacle to behold the wealth pumped from the 2020 Fed balance sheet expansion, of what? 5tr? and from there in the course of a couple of years into the gains of the biggest NASDAQ shareholders.
Look at the corresponding rise of commercial bank reserves at the Fed that followed every blast of QE, through to the first NASDAQ peak Nov 2022 when policy changed. The elite’s money
The growth of marketcap of the top global fifteen are as eye popping as the Nip bank market cap at the end of the 80s
I think we’re today passing through historic times. About me it’s all la la land to beyond the horizon
Old friends hand me tinfoil and refuse to look at Plato
Quiz: who would be top producer if usaoil moved to
a) Brazil
B) Congo
C) Indonesia
D) Ukraine
Biggest Crude Oil Reserves – Top 10 Countries
1. Venezuela: 300.9 Gbbl
2. Saudi Arabia: 266.5 Gbbl
3. Canada: 169.7 Gbbl
4. Iran: 158.4 Gbbl
5. Iraq: 142.5 Gbbl
6. Kuwait: 101.5 Gbbl
7. UAE: 97.8 Gbbl
8. Russia: 80 Gbbl
9. Libya: 48.4 Gbbl
10. U.S.: 36.5 Gbbl
Probably oil depletion is a problem but why use climate change as the excuse?
Surely burning the hard to get remainder won’t matter an iota.
Because it’s easier to fool the masses with climate change CC?
Well I’ll drive less because the poor polar bear?
Funny that mitigating CC will deplete oil even faster.(bingo???
Easier to turn off the spigots & say it won’t come, the plumbers want too much to fix the clog, or it’s getting slippier & going backwards or Putin & Arabs colluding.
The reserve numbers you read are not worth the pixels with which they are printed.
How many people believe that Venezuela has the highest reserves in the world? The can get barely any of it out. These reserves are supposed to be with current technologies and current prices. Perhaps a dribble for 10,000 years, or until needed supply lines break, and the rest of the system breaks.
Saudi Arabia is also, at best, a dribble over a long time period.
Canada’s oil depends on supply lines around the world for steel pipe and computers. We don’t know how much can be extracted when.
Edward Dutton asks why Britain became a nation of cowards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQNK-N_RsAc
I say, ask Chucky and the idiots who stood up like hell and helped to end any possibility for Type I Civ.
Chucky and the 200/400 Worcestershires killed Henry Oswald Moseley and basically everyone who died after 1915.
all the brave souls perished there and the survivors returned shell shocked, and only cowards remained and reproduced.
I don’t know about Dutton’s ancestry, but chances are his ancestor evaded the trenches for one way or another which is why he is around to lament a Britain which died a century ago.
I say it was dark chocolate. Who wants to fight and lose the chances of getting some?
I’m Generation X. We watch wars on TV.
It is consistent and if you are able to avoid being cannon fodder and are intelligent, less competition.
Still, my first choice of occupation would have been fighter pilot.
Dennis L.
The brave ones ran stupidly into their own demise, fooled by the tom-toms of war propaganda, and the smart ones managed to stay at home to inseminate the wives and daughters of the dead heroes.
Perhaps true, but
“There are historical accounts that suggest gladiators, who were often seen as celebrities of their time, were popular with women in ancient Rome1. Some sources indicate that there were cases of affairs and even elopements with aristocratic ladies1. However, it’s important to note that these accounts provide a general picture and individual experiences would have varied widely.”
Women vary widely, but the truly good ones get the truly best men, including fighter pilots – the modern gladiators.
Being a man is quite a challenge, no easy answers for this one.
Dennis L.
You cannot compare a gladiator with the unfortunate soldiers of the first world war, who were nothing more than cannon fodder. For a gladiator, it paid to be strong and brave, but for a soldier in WW1 bravery was the quickest way to come home in a handbasket.
It’s true that women like brave men, but I’m sure most of them prefer a cowardly living husband to a bravely dead one.
The simulacrum does not want “civilized men” or “civilization itself” at all.
The programming of female humans is that of cattle. The programming of men in pre civilized state is that of warrior……
Natural combat selects for noble traits in men,…there is no cannon fodder….and no Lockhead Martin executives bloated by arms sales.
As we crash back into a Medieval state these selection criteria will reestablish themselves.
Think 1960s Masai or Dodoth cultures. Men are herdsman and warriors. If they survive initiation and first battles with neighbor tribes they can acquire multiple wives and large herds.
Women milk cows and pound sorghum…..boy children herd livestock.
It is what we were designed for.
I agree with you on this, Kulm.
Probably, it went something like this.
In days of old, when knights were bold, the bolder they were, the more spoils they could aspire to enjoy, including with regard to reproductive success. This success offset the higher death rate among fighters than non-fighters, and made war a profitable venture for victorious braves and elites alike.
But by the time of WW1, the development of industrial-scale killing technology meant that anyone on the frontlines was fodder for the meat-grinder, so the bolder they were, the more likely they were to be ground into mincemeat.
These days, you don’t have to be a yellow-bellied worm in the traditional sense to see the point of avoiding becoming mincemeat. Once you know the mechanism and the odds, and you realize the futility of sacrificing yourself for the greater good of your team or country, which is in any case owned and run by banks and investment firms, common sense dictates staying well behind the front lines and making discretion the better part of valour. What in the age of chivalry was spinelessness and cowardice has become the conventional wisdom.
The era of military chivalry ended in 1884, when the brave Zulus were cowardly decimated by the English maxim guns.
In 1914, only fools (that is, almost everyone) believed that the battlefield was still a school of honor and courage. It wasn’t, it was just a school of insanity and stupidity.
“Storms of Steel” by Ernst Junger, himself the most intrepid and courageous soldier, wonderfully describes this conflict and the transition from a world of brave soldiers to a world of sad pawns in a materiel war (created and fueled by the banksters).
The Year of the Rabbit has come and gone and Disease X / UEP hasn’t arrived. I had my party poppers ready and it’s a no-show! Just my luck…
It’s the Year of the Dragon. China’s year.
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2024/02/sahra-wagenknecht-germany-plan-for-peace?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1707314888
Nibelungentreue? At the end of the Nibelungenlied, a medieval German epic, Kriemhild, now married to Attila, king of the Huns, has her three brothers, the kings of Burgundy, and their vassal Hagen, the murderer of her first husband Siegfried, in her power. When Kriemhild demands Hagen be handed over to her, the brothers refuse, citing their duty of loyalty (Treue) although they realised that this may mean their death and the end of their people. When in 1909 in the Reichstag, Chancellor Bernhard von Bülow pledged unconditional allegiance to Austria following its annexation of Bosnia, he invoked the Nibelungenlied and the Treue it celebrated – from then on referred to as Nibelungentreue. What became of it five years later is well known.
Great Britain, not so as Great as it used to be, is still unrepentant upon the fuckups it caused and the slaughter it conjured to the Continent, while completely content to be ruled by a Hindu.
I’d really enjoy watching Britain turn into a ROF-fest… racial warfare with knives… skinning whitey alive… cuz whitey … he done looked down on all those folks he skinned alive for all those years… oh yeah… I’d very much enjoy that!
FE , on the same page as you . Britain will be the canary in the coalmine .
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/02/18/beware-these-siren-voices/
This is a good article about Britain and its problems. It has been adding a huge amount of debt in order to generate what little GDP has been reported (negative on a per capita basis). It is met possible to dig the country out of a hole, this way. Moving from industry to services seemed to work back in the 1980s, but there is no place left to jump to.
I wanna see the Brits burn… and suffer.
More than anything.
Your hate makes us stronger. I’m looking forward to my afternoon tea today.
If it makes you feel any better… we will follow you into the cauldron of suffering…
However — there is a Get out of Jail free card here… UEP pre-empts the worst of it
“If you want to end it, then quit using it.” How to talk to an anti-plastic activist.
https://twitter.com/wideawake_media/status/1758830042941956444
I am amused when green groopies moan and wail.. but they do absolutely nothing to solve the problem… they just wail and moan and demand that someone do something
hahahahahaha
F789ing ID.iots
They don’t know that they would not exist without fossil fuels and plastics.
Agree 100pc…give them a permaculture book and send them to an “official” weeklong certificate workshop to give them the “knowledge” they need to exist in a steady state culture.
They all would starve without BAU…
It’s been like over 4 decades (40 years!) since Australian Bill Mollinson came ashore here in the US States to penetrate this society..not much transition.
Fast Eddie is lucky..he will be moving to Australia where it is common practice for these ideas to be known. Hope he finds a like minded group in Perth he can connect with and get help to survive the bottleneck
Survive???? hahahaha… nobody will survive..
There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in pools in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
https://energyskeptic.com/2017/the-devils-scenario-near-miss-at-fukushima-is-a-warning-for-u-s/
The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.
Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16628547/
However, many of the radioactive elements in spent fuel have long half-lives. For example, plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years, and plutonium-240 has a half-life of 6,800 years. Because it contains these long half-lived radioactive elements, spent fuel must be isolated and controlled for thousands of years.
It really doesn’t matter. On a global basis there would be a bit more cancer but that mostly affects old people and there won’t be any of those.
Hahahaha.. delusional thinking at it’s best
No Eddie, it is possible to survive
Chernoybl’s ‘mutants’: Cancer-resistant wolves and black frogs that live in nuclear wasteband
Wolves that live in Chernobyl seem to have developed a resistance to cancer – while entirely new variations of other animals have been spotted, including black frogs
Stray dogs hang out near an abandoned, partially-completed cooling tower at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant
Scientists have reported that Chernobyl’s remaining high levels of radiation have made some animals resistant to cancer.
It’s been almost 38 years since the Chernobyl nuclear disaster – an event which saw dangerous amounts of radiation enter the atmosphere, claiming 31 lives and displacing 350,000 people. Since then, the impact on the surrounding wildlife appears to have been remarkable, with some areas reporting the existence of mutant cancer-resistant wolves
The Mirror UK
Interesting!
It would be helpful for you to copy the link, and show it as well.
Not at all relevant – nor useful… Chernobyl was contained and did not involve spent fuel ponds.
There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in pools in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
https://energyskeptic.com/2017/the-devils-scenario-near-miss-at-fukushima-is-a-warning-for-u-s/
The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.
Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16628547/
However, many of the radioactive elements in spent fuel have long half-lives. For example, plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years, and plutonium-240 has a half-life of 6,800 years. Because it contains these long half-lived radioactive elements, spent fuel must be isolated and controlled for thousands of years.
for the ten thousand millionth time… Chernobyl offers no parallels…
The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.
There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in pools in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
https://energyskeptic.com/2017/the-devils-scenario-near-miss-at-fukushima-is-a-warning-for-u-s/
The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.
Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16628547/
However, many of the radioactive elements in spent fuel have long half-lives. For example, plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,000 years, and plutonium-240 has a half-life of 6,800 years. Because it contains these long half-lived radioactive elements, spent fuel must be isolated and controlled for thousands of years.
FWIW my spectacles have toughened glass lenses and metal (s.steel) frames. Above all, because they last for up to 20-25 years, unlike plastic lenses, which scratch, or plastic frames, which break.
Yesterday I spent five minutes explaining to a ‘health foods’ producer why glass jars with metal lids were standard in the 20th.C and worked rather better than their plastic ones. Glass jars are reusable, metal lids are recycleable if not reusable and glass jars don’t usually leak – their plastic ones do. My words were apparently to no avail.
I’ve been explaining the problems with most plastics on and off to people who claim to care for 40-50 years. I’d say not many are listening hard enough to do anything about it. In particular, as I discovered in 2023, nearly all spectacle lenses are now plastic whereas in 1999 they were mostly glass; the optician said most people now treat a pair of spectacles as a disposable fashion item … unlike 25-30 years ago.
i’ve been looking for glass glasses for some years for these reasons, if anyone knows where to get such specs, i’d be glad to know.
I havent had a new pair for ages. Really, all plastic lenses now? Those are crap and thicker than glass ones.
Cromagnon, which is this dominant life form referrerd to in another post ? Available observation tools I have: binoculars, 6 inch Newton telescope, microscope (incl phase shift)…any direct or indirect checks that I can do with these ?
Take Iphone 8 or higher, remove both spectacles out of 3 d viewer glasses, layer spectacles in sequence and place over lense of I phone. Shoot video at fastest speed possible. Place phone facing directly upward with unobstructed view of sky…..have a coffee.
Play back at normal speed or even slower…….those objects moving past at incredible speeds are the dominant life form on this world.
Or at least some of them are….the rest may be unacknowledged wildlife of this realm.
Binocs and telescope occasionally work….if the buggers slow down….but the camera deal is a sure thing. Winter in cold climate is better time to record because you have no ability to deceive yourself that those are “insects”.
The world is not what we think it is. Hope this is of use.
By “those objects moving past at incredible speeds” that “are the dominant life form on this world”, I hope you are not referring to the Lear Jet crowd flying to and from Davos, Monte Carlo, Aspen and Kauai.
Great comment, by the way. If I had an iPhone 8 or higher, and knew how to operate it I might be tempted to do this experiment.
you’re referring to jose escamilla “skyfish” phenomenon? brought back some memories for me, but they do just seem to be optical artefacts:
In August 2005, China Central Television (CCTV) aired a two-part documentary about flying rods in China. It reported the events from May to June of the same year at Tonghua Zhenguo Pharmaceutical Company in Tonghua City, Jilin Province, which debunked the flying rods. Surveillance cameras in the facility’s compound captured video footage of flying rods identical to those shown in Jose Escamilla’s video. Getting no satisfactory answer to the phenomenon, curious scientists at the facility decided that they would try to solve the mystery by attempting to catch these airborne creatures. Huge nets were set up and the same surveillance cameras then captured images of rods flying into the trap. When the nets were inspected, the “rods” were no more than regular moths and other ordinary flying insects. Subsequent investigations proved that the appearance of flying rods on video was an optical illusion created by the slower recording speed of the camera.
https://tech-sina-com-cn.translate.goog/d/2006-01-23/2211827624.shtml?from=wap&_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
Thanks, for the response, I have a Samsung a14, specs says 30fps would that be enough ? 3d glasses I don’t have, before I go out and buy some, are you referring to some kind of polarization filters ? Or rather the blue red color filters ?
I should have a single polarization filter from photography laying about somewhere.
Some other questions, long while ago you mentioned the seals being broken and linking this to Greek mythology referring to Apollo arrows as the injections and AI being next. After looking around abit I was quite interested to learn Hephaistos made automatons, and was also weapons provider of the gods, (war ? But could also be strife or competition with Automatons ? ) The third seal is said to be hunger, but I’m not sure which greek mythology to link it to ? The scales seem to hint possibly at Themis or Astreae ?. Although wiki suggests Limos, another deity may be more appropriate similar to hephaistos instead of Ares in the 2nd horsemen ?
I had to pull out a paper back and breath through it when reading this hahahaa
THIS… is GREAT!!!
So when is the next rate increase???? hahahahaha (we are totally f789ed… what they do not know is that this is ultimately being driven by deep depletion of affordable energy .. and that will only get worse hahahahaha)
Inflation surprised in 2023 with its sharp decline, driven by the collapse in energy prices and the drop in durable goods prices. Both of them have come off huge price spikes since mid-2022, pulling down overall CPI inflation from 9.0% in June 2022 to 3.1% in January 2024. But services inflation has remained high and accelerated in late 2023, which was not surprising, and then on top of this increase, it leaped in January by an annualized rate of 8.2%.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which shows inflationary pressures deeper in the economic machinery, dished up another nasty surprise, with the Services PPI leaping by 7.1% annualized, and with the Finished Goods PPI jumping by 4% annualized in January.
The PCE price index for January hasn’t been released yet, but December’s PCE price index for core services accelerated to 4.0% annualized. So given the surge in the CPI for core services in January, we expect another nasty surprise, so to speak, in the core PCE price index for services.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/18/higher-for-longer-inflation-interest-rates-not-over-until-the-fat-lady-sings-waiting-for-the-2-year-treasury-yield-to-overshoot/
The article ends,
No one is going to tighten financial conditions, so inflation looks like where we are headed. But something has to go wrong, even with governments making sure lending is as loose as possible. Likely, too much inflation, relative to goods available.
WHO chief’s dire warning: Disease X outbreak ‘a matter of when, not if’
“Tedros said he issued a similar warning in 2018 and was proven right when COVID-19 struck”
https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-chiefs-dire-warning-disease-x-outbreak-a-matter-of-when-not-if?s=03
Just two weeks until March..
The timing of this is not ideal… can it not wait another year?
If you have sufficient connections among the elders you can delay it one year but no more. they get cranky if you suggest a way. Methods are their bread and butter. In this case they will decide whether the method is delayed release of the pathogen, or press coverage for the first year.
He strongly desires so.
The whole institution desires such tragedies in order to have power, rule people, push treatments and make money.
The problem is unfortunately the institution itself.
“Today I stand before you in the aftermath of COVID-19 with millions of people dead, with social, economic and political shocks that reverberate to this day,
Did a single person who was young and healthy die from covid and only covid?
Don’t politicize coronavirus unless you want ‘many more body bags’: WHO director-general
https://globalnews.ca/news/6794276/who-politicize-coronavirus-trump/
No. Young healthy people don’t die from the flu either. Nor do old healthy people
We would hope that we don’t have a replay of 2020, but we don’t know.
It won’t be a replay … but it will rhyme… what will happen this time is everyone will die… the fear will be justified this time
Marek’s human version … coming soon.
it will be surreal when it starts… and exciting… adrenaline and fear are addictive
California Senate candidate wants $50 per hour minimum wage. I see this leading to full automation. Zero humans employed in California.
Hal I asked for pickles on my burger.
I can’t do that Ed.
Yes you can you just don’t want to.
Ed take the burger and pay.
Not without pickles.
Ed do you want electric and water when you get home? Take the burger.
p.s. AI currently scores 145 on IQ tests.
The lastest captcha i saw involved dragging a pc of puzzle and placing it where it belongs… I think someone with an IQ of 70 could do that…
norm next time I encounter this I will link to it for you to try… let’s see if a Rat Juiced old man can handle it
I see this leading to full automation. Zero humans employed in California.
Impossible. We can’t build a Mars base. We can’t build intelligent humanoid robots. We casn’t build commercial fusion.
To me it looks like the US holds down the Caribbean, South America, Africa, Germany, Japan, Korea, Syria, Iran, Arab nations, Russia and now China. Show me one nation that is breaking free.
The Elders still rule the world… notice their ability to add trillions of dollars of new debt without anyone making the slightest peep.
The US is not holding back China which in PPP terms is already a far larger economy. The US is allowed for the moment to pretend it is China’s equal just as in the early 1900s Britain was allowed to pretend it was America’s equal.
China is past peak… and on the verge of collapse (as is the US) http://www.williamengdahl.com/gr16May2023.php
Sure it is buddy.
Oh right … they just found an ocean of cheap oil and coal just outside of Beijing…
China is on the ascendency!!!
Peak fossil fuel production within China is a huge problem. China can’t keep building lots more homes. Wind and solar really aren’t substitutes.
Again, if Chucky didn’t do ‘his duty’, the charade would have lasted for quite a while.
Ironically there are no Chuckys among the wokists. they are not stupid enough to fuck all of it up.
What’s the saying? “Arguments presented without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.” Something like that…
this is inconsistent with Abrams tanks catching fire easily. And Patriot batteries impotent even against slow moving drones, if there are enough of them.
As if… https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/92046
Everything is fake.
“Navalny (supposedly) caught on camera attempting a coup.”
Navalny worked as Agent for MI6 & company, everybody knows except mainstream media.
Politically inside Russia he didn’t count anything.
He was a potential candidate for Presidency only in our fairy tales.
Having said that, R.I.P.
I would be hard pressed to name a professor from my undergraduate or graduate studies from whom I have learned as much as from you, Ms. Tverberg. I appreciate you and your generosity in sharing it with the public at large.
Thanks for the compliment. I figure giving the information away for free is as good as any approach.
everyone of these compliments is amply deserved.
It is weird, can’t think of anything specific learned and subsequently used in life. Perhaps it is the exercising of the brain which is important. Probably depends on what is studied; my current thesis is it must be consistent with the fabric of the universe otherwise too many U-turns.
Dennis L.
Europe is preparing to go it alone.
Both Biden and Trump – and the USA establishment as a whole – are shifting their focus to China as an emergent peer competitor.
Russia is small fry, the Cold War with USSR is over and Europe no longer has the same importance. NATO is last century now.
USA very probably could not defeat China anyway and it certainly could not muck about in Europe at the same time.
Arguably Biden badly blundered by pushing Russia further toward China when USA should have been keeping Russia friendly or at least neutral.
The UKR war has exposed the ruins of the USA/ NATO military-industrial base and USA is preparing to dump Europe and focus on China.
USA has left it very late – and arguably far too late. Europe has been in a long dream with no clue of what is going on.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-donald-trump-leave-nato-europe-us-president-jlwjf2slc
https://archive.ph/CuUl3
> Would Trump really leave Nato? Europe is trying not to panic
Donald Trump has never hidden his dislike of Nato and has threatened to withdraw from the alliance multiple times
…. Just as Nato is being called to vigorously buttress its eastern flank against its greatest threat in recent history, American willpower, the foundation of Nato’s existence, may be starting to crack.
…. Without full-throated American backing, Nato’s military strength would be much diminished. Even the Biden administration, which has sought to emphasise its commitment to America’s traditional alliances, has made it clear that its top priority is now the superpower clash with China.
“They are simply not prepared to do more,” one European diplomat told me last year, describing the Biden administration as “the best we are going to get”. “The geographical centre of the world is shifting to Asia. We have to finally step up.” If Trump gets in, that shift could accelerate.
…. Others, however, warn he already intends to go much further. Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, does not believe this is a negotiating tactic. “In my view, Trump will try and get out of Nato,” he told the US website Politico, describing Trump’s recent comments as a deliberate effort to shape debate ahead of such a move.
…. The difference now, insiders say, is not just that Trump is prepared to say what would until recently have been unimaginable for a US president. But also that the US faces what it regards as a far graver threat from China, while the Ukraine war drains Nato arsenals from Warsaw to Washington.
All of which mean that it’s time, perhaps past time, for Europe to look seriously to its own defence.
…. How Europe changes gear is a conversation that is just beginning, with suggestions ranging from conscription to a potential nuclear deterrent for individual eastern and central European nations.
Whatever Putin’s plans, and whoever wins the election, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: if European states cannot at least start to build the capacity to credibly fight alone, they may struggle to call on the United States in the future.
It is time that Europe figured out that realistically, they will have to go it alone. The US either won’t or can’t help them.
Without much fossil fuels, Europe can’t expect to do very much.
It would be nice of Europe could experience some ROF … while we watched… (doom p-orn) … even if it’s just for a few days… cuz if Europe ROFs… we soon follow
Europe will. We will all stop being so nice and rediscover the kill or be killed nature of reality.
For those of you too old to form their own gang, a small house in the Northern carpathians can be had with 40K euros (Hungary). Schengen gives you right to move there. Fossil fuels courtesy of Russia. Serbia also but it is not Schengen.
There’s a nice old deserted castle up in the Carpathians, only a few hours carriage ride from Klausenberg. There are a few bats in the belfry, and some coffins in the crypt, but the place has a wonderful view of the mountains and with a bit of renovation it would make a perfect country home.
For once I agree with Eddy, the place with the bats will look wonderful once things become really sour. But let us not confuse Hungary with Romania. Totally different countries, and there is a reason why Dracula was placed in one and not the other.
Well, actually, if we really want to avoid confusion, we should recognize that Klausenberg, the castle in question, and Transylvania in general were in Hungarian territory for the best part of a millennium. They were also under the Turks and the Hapsburgs for a time and have only been part of a Romanian state since 1920.
We should also recognize that historically there were plenty of Hungarians, Romanians and Germans (known as the Transylvanian Saxons) living in Transylvania, not to mention quite a few Jews, Gypsies and Poles.
The history of that part of Eastern Europe is complicated by the fact that there was never a strong Transylvanian national identity, and the Transylvania has always been and still is an ethnically, linguistically, and culturally diverse place with inhabitants who identify with different ethnic backgrounds and regional identities—when they aren’t making yoghurt or performing folk dances.
It’s the sort of place our betters at the UN, the EU and the WEF have in mind for the rest of Europe, although under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Genocide, I am not sure if we are to be allowed to make yoghurt.
Unfortunately Europe needs to go down to understand that all its recent policies have been completely wrong.
Wouldn’t the obvious shift for all the hegemonized western countries be to adopt a non-aligned stance, cut the umbilical and retain the bezzle themselves?
Military expenditure is an utter waste of resources once it returns less than it expends
A guess:
Military expenditures are for R&D and also GDP, they can balance down turns and due to sunk capital, using it is better than not. Called minimizing the cost of fixed overhead.
It will never be perfect, nothing ever is, 80/20 all the time.
Dennis L.
NATO membership seems to cost far more than ‘armed neutrality’, which is the Swiss policy (defence spending = 0.8% of GDP).
Austria (neutral under the 1955 treaty) spends about the same as Switzerland. Ireland (neutral since independence from the UK in ~1922) spends a tiny 0.2% of GDP.
In the distant past, the supporters of NATO claimed that it was cheaper to have ‘collective security’. Clearly rubbish; the UK spends 2.2% and other members are being criticised for spending less.
Mirror on the wall …. “Just as Nato is being called to vigorously buttress its eastern flank against its greatest threat in recent history”
Why does anyone think an overpopulated, resource depleted Europe is under any threat from Russia?? What does Russia have to gain by conquering anything to the West of the areas of Ukraine they already have (being mostly Russian speaking areas).
It would be a net energy loss just to maintain control of the West. Far far better for Russia to just sell the West whatever they have the money to buy.
If Putin was smart, and I believe he is, there would be no way he’s interested in anything further west, but definitely worried about the West being interested in Russia’ resources.
History has shown that when people have nothing to lose because they lack resources, then they attack others to gain the resources they need. Russia has the resources (for a while longer), Western Europe doesn’t, they mined everything worth mining decades to centuries ago.
Western Europe has no future.
Denmark will donate all its artillery’s to Ukraine . See the Danish minister say that between 16:45 – 18:15 minutes in this video .
Pretty small country, Denmark. This will do nothing.
Did you know … that this was a test by the PR Team… to determine how gullible and stooopid … the MOREONS are…
https://youtu.be/Xs0K4ApWl4g
Now you know
Intelligent design:
Optimus and Boston Dynamics both design their robots to approximate humans, Optimus has opposing thumbs.
My thesis is the fabric of the universe took a great deal of time and effort to get humans; we will not be allowed to screw things up, the largest screwers will be skewered.
Lex Fridman has the originator of Boston Dynamics on his latest, look forward to seeing/listening to it.
My weed killer:
https://halfasskustoms.com/
The video is at the bottom, $10K fob from China. What could go wrong? It is a laser welder, metal cleaner, hand held. Now, with a facial recognition program trained to see weeds, zap, no pesticide residue. Hmm, could we do it with batteries charged with solar? Nah, that won’t work, long extension cord is the ticket.
Got my wheeled robot to do wheelies, time for a walk. Old men can be interesting.
Dennis L.
Good luck with your weed zapper. Not many weeds at this time of year!
Regenerative farmers deal with weeds by cover crops, very rarely indeed they may need a small dose of herbicide. Gabe Brown’s book ‘Dirt to Soil’ is an impressive read.
Regenerative farming is a scam.
Thanks for the suggestion. I have this Gabe Brown book in my “To Buy” list. I’m planning on creating a perennial food plot on 1 acre of former pasture land which is spring fed year round. We plowed and planted it in beets and turnips 2 years ago and the whitetail deer were loving it (several large bucks claimed it). However the plot gets overgrown in hay when we aren’t around. The neighboring farmer has a tendency to let round bales roll down into our property boundary (uphill from the plot) so I plan to use them with permission for no-till.. killing weeds and mulching to eventually replace with northern red oaks and seed with chicory and alfalfa while pruning the remaining standard apple. One man gathers what another man spills, lol.
Last year in spring we planted 26 hectares with rye and vetch after plowing and tilling. I harvested it in July for silage. In August it was evident that the field was clean, and that neither the rye nor the vetch had died. We will harvest it again for silage this June, then plant something else. Granted we can not live without diesel but we can without herbicides or fertilizer (legume plus 2.5 meters roots). next step is trying a base of permanent dutch clover in the field. That might need some lime here. RA provides partial answers. Any farmer would like to clean a field while providing a useful crop.
Clover is on my mind as well. Have you had any issues controlling the vetch?
We will see this year. Word is if you cut it while it flowers it is 100% kill.
Can you live with cancer (from the spent fuel ponds)
OK, European NATO is starting to ‘get real’ – not only can USA ‘not be relied on’ to protect them but USA probably would not be able to anyway.
My advice has been that Europe NATO needs to de-escalate with Russia and ultimately develop a common security framework with Russia that is acceptable to all if war is to be avoided.
NATO has clearly now failed to avoid war in Europe and the question has to be ‘do you want a war or not?’ If so then carry on as you are – but do not be surprised if you lose.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/whether-its-donald-trump-or-joe-biden-natos-in-trouble-rt8s8t9tf
https://archive.ph/7c31f
> Whether it’s Donald Trump or Joe Biden, Nato’s in trouble
Alliance cannot count on a Trump-led America to join it in repelling Putin or a Biden-led America to free up social funds for the nation’s military
…. America, which under Ronald Reagan spent about 6 per cent of GDP on its military, bankrupting and eventually bringing down a Soviet Union that could not keep up, now spends 3.5 per cent to meet its Nato commitment, arm its Indo-Pacific partners, and defend its trade routes and global supply lines.
These numbers tell a story of an American nation unwilling to pay the cost of its defence. Government revenues this fiscal year will increase by $23.9 billion, just short of 5 per cent. The growing (3.3 per cent), fully employed (unemployment rate 3.7 per cent) economy generates enough cash for the government to increase medical spending, green the economy, provide 41.2 million people (12.5 per cent of the population) with food stamps, and contemplate a costly expansion of child tax credits.
But military spending, adjusted for inflation, remains at last year’s inadequate level, and claims a smaller share of the budget than interest payments on the debt. The Heritage Foundation’s tenth annual index of military strength reports: “The current US military force is at significant risk of being unable to meet the demands of a single major regional conflict while also attending to various [military] presence and engagement activities.”
…. Trump’s threat to withdraw in part or completely from Nato is not the only American move that has our allies on edge. Both he and Biden promise to raise tariffs on their exports. In addition, Biden has become the de facto Putin of the energy trade by refusing permits for the construction of plants from which to export liquefied natural gas, much of it to western European countries denied supplies of natural gas when Putin retaliated for their support for Ukraine by shutting down the Nord Stream pipelines.
All of this means that Nato is in for trying times no matter which of the flawed candidates wins in November. The alliance cannot count on a Trump-led America to join it in repelling Putin when he decides on his next move to reacquire the lands of what he calls “historical Russia”. And it cannot count on a Biden-led America to rein in the growth of social spending to free funds for the nation’s military.
It’s little wonder that not only Nato, but Japan and Taiwan are actively exploring what to do in a world in which America has decided to discard the burdens of global leadership. As it did after the First World War.
Guess:
Germany is very good mechanically, great machine tools, Russia is fairly to very good at software and mathematics. Music and mathematics seem to go together, perhaps not so much rock and roll.
Dennis L.
The Heritage Foundation provides the only non-governmental and only annual assessment of U.S. military strength.
The USA military is ‘weak’ and unable to defend USA’s national interests. It has long been underfunded and generally in a right mess.
Its materiel stocks are severely depleted and it lacks the military-industrial base to produce more, neither can it just magic one up and all of its allies are in the same situation.
USA probably could not manage one major conflict and it certainly could not manage two at the same time.
For all of the talk in UK about how UK is going to ‘fight Russia’, ‘fight China, North Korea, Iran’, basically everyone at once, NATO has already shown that it cannot match just Russia alone let alone China et al too.
The USA unipolar moment after the Cold War is over. The USA cannot defend its hegemony so it concedes it as that is how the world works. Europe has got decisions to make.
https://www.heritage.org/military-strength/executive-summary
> Executive Summary of the 2024 Index of U.S. Military Strength
Each year, The Heritage Foundation’s Index of U.S. Military Strength employs a standardized, consistent set of criteria, accessible both to government officials and to the American public, to gauge the U.S. military’s ability to perform its missions in today’s world.
…. The 2024 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force is at significant risk of not being able to meet the demands of a single major regional conflict while also attending to various presence and engagement activities. The force would probably not be able to do more and is certainly ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous MRCs—a situation that is made more difficult by the generally weak condition of key military allies.
…. As currently postured, the U.S. military is at significant risk of not being able to defend America’s vital national interests with assurance. It is rated as “weak” relative to the force needed to defend national interests on a global stage against actual challenges in the world as it is rather than as we wish it were. This is the inevitable result of years of sustained use, underfunding, poorly defined priorities, wildly shifting security policies, exceedingly poor discipline in program execution, and a profound lack of seriousness across the national security establishment even as threats to U.S. interests have surged.
In 2023, this has been compounded by the cost of U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s assault, which is further exacerbated by the limited willingness of allies in Europe to shoulder a greater share of the support burden. This was made worse by Hamas’s barbaric attack on Israel, which prompted the U.S. to provide equipment, munitions, and missile defense resources to Israel to aid in its defense, further pressuring America’s defense posture. These wars have laid bare the limited inventories of equipment, munitions, and supplies of all supporting countries as well as the limitations of the industrial base that will be required to replenish them, especially in the U.S., which must always look to its core national security interests.
I am sure the findings of the Heritage Foundation are true, but you will not find the US media or school system admitting to any of these issues. This is even more reason not to tell Americans the truth, and to hide “disinformation,” which is really true information.
It is time for us to come home, mind our business and take care of our own.
It is however accepted that the US Navy did a good job with freedom of navigation.
Dennis L.
It is time for us to come home, mind our business and take care of our own.
Not possible. The US needs too many imports.
In the same vein,
Synthetic Vitamin B12 is Literal Cyanide (Poison)
https://chemtrails.substack.com/p/vitamin-b-is-cyanide?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web
Oh dear!
The thing I have read in the past is that B-12 is found naturally in animal products only when the animal eat food that has dirt on them. With “modern” farming, this is pretty much never the case.
So the reason that the animals have B-12 is because their food supplemented with this same chemical.
We need to go back to eating meat and other products from animals who graze outside and eat dirty food.
I know that my husband I take as low doses as we can of B-12 as we can (small doses, twice a week) because we eat relatively few animal products. It is not clear that there is a good solution.
Thank you, didn’t know that.
Closest I came to dirt was sitting next to two Chinese Students who had returned from the semester break, they went to China at end of 2020, start of 2021, school was still in session. I have a belief in natural immunity.
Polio is thought by some to be secondary to increased hygiene around WWII, or after.
Dennis L.
Vitamin B12 is easy to obtain from foods other than beef. Namely, eggs from free range chickens and wild fish (sardines, tuna, herring, salmon…)
In a fish-eating culture, vitamin B12 is a non-issue, but I believe that in culinary terms, the relationship between Americans and marine fauna is a bit more distant. Not good. God made fish to be eaten, as proven by the fact that most of Jesus’ disciples were fishermen.
God does not exist.
Really? Not even as a metaphor? I’m shocked.
Crom keeps God from the earth. He claims it as his own.
Or something like that.
Metaphysics can be befuddling
Ain’t God the guy who always asks for money – and never answers anyone’s prayers?
Such a basard!
But it’s tax deductible…ain’t death and taxes what is given here on Earth?
What a Guy this God is..
Before I go in the Pearly Gates, I want him to answer this question..
Why didn’t “He” do a better job?
Can you get hold of ‘pastured’ eggs, from a flock which lives outside nearly all year and eats mostly wild food, just supplemented by grain from the farmer? Actually in Georgia they probably would live outside all year.
In the UK I used to have several sources of supply. Recently I’ve been reduced to buying ‘supermarket organic’ eggs or ‘organic’ eggs from small shops. They’re merely ‘OK’. Non-organic-certified, from tiny producers who know their stuff, tends to be better than organic.
UNfortunaltely this very misleading.
B12 is the molecule cobalamin. Synthetic B12 comes in a few forms. Methylcobalamin, hydroxocobalamin and cyanocobalamin. The last does indeed have a cyanide molecule attached to it. The levels of cyanide are very low and the body breaks them down rapidly before any effect on respiration can occur.
That said I would only recommend taking the methyl form as that is one of the body’s natural forms.
B6 has similar issues that certain synthetic forms like pyridoxine actually cause nerve damage long term.
Except that, according to the post, all forms of B12 available on the market are in the cyanocobalamin form.
As for the methyl form can you prove that it does anything more than cause no harm? Good luck with that.
Amazon seems to sell the Methylcobalamin form of B12, from several sellers.
The post is written by someone very uninformed.
I take methylcobalamin. By the way they give methylcobalamin to reverse cyanide poisoning as the cobalamin attaches readily to it and neutralizes it.
Just in case you aren’t aware too much water can kill you, as too with oxygen or spinach. Everything is about taking the right amounts. Most vitamins and minerals will hurt you if you take too much because it puts everything out of whack.
Food is always your best option as long as you know how, where, when and what it was grown with. That’s why we grow most of our own, including meat.
Many foods humans eat are slightly toxic such as potatoes.
Why do you take methylcobalamin? For religious reasons I hope.
Or do you really believe that your body needs a synthetic compound to be happy & healthy?
right now we are seeing an upsurge in diseases like measles because of the idiot anti-vaxxers.
might be as well to bear that in mind
Measles? I had measles… oooooh measles… kinda like Ebola right?
I’d rather take my chances with measles than inject MMR and run the risk of this
https://youtu.be/SMjwUxDGFxw
Forget it, Normie. You’re out of your element.
i felt sure i could rely on your judgment in such matters JMS
Actually, Norman is the senior Elder here at OFW, outranking Keith and Duncan, not to mention Gail, in terms of gross years lived—although some of Duncan’s years have been grosser. 😉
Since one of the main reasons most people who take vitamin supplements is to help them live a long and healthy life, and Norman has lived a long and healthy life—pushing up barbells at an age when most people are pushing up daisies—I for one would like to know whether he’s taken any vitamins over the years to help him on his way.
Or any other lifestyle tips that he cares to recommend.
never get uptight about anything under any circumstances
(eye rolling is all thats allowed)
think ‘well’, and never fake it.
forget about ‘self’—whatever the circumstances, unless being pursued by a bear at the end of act 3.
and—dont start now—start 50 years ago or more, and don’t stop
stay curious about everything.
accept you know almost nothing
the above wont prevent you being run over by a bus, but it will make it less likely.
i’m on no medication and have no idea who my family doctor is–or even if there is such a creature any more.
Forget it, Normie. You’re out of your element.
Remember when the federal deficit forecast was to more than double to $389 billion in one fiscal year?
This shocking news was delivered by analysts after congress granted Paulson’s 2008 bazooka authorisation
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last month described a proposed federal backstop authority for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a “bazooka” whose mere presence would silence market unrest over the viability of the two mortgage finance giants.
But just weeks after receiving the new weapon from Congress, the Treasury looks increasingly likely to have to use it, at a cost of billions of dollars to taxpayers.
reuters.com/article/idUSN20651295/
and then with the old switch and bait, USD700B was deployed to bail out AIG CDS to the benefit of the usual suspects and provide liquidity to banking institutions (inc foreign) and millions of mortgage debtors were detrimentally dispossessed. And then, hopey changey
The bazooka was brought to mind by Kulmie’s comment a few days back Economic Singularity Occurring … All the money is now in the tech companies, which are now bloating.
We read of bubbles and valuation fantasies, but let’s face it bubbles only pop when a chain reaction of selling is sparked. What if rather than a bazooka, a 2024 taser of unlimited QE liquidity was pointed at any particular market? The price of that at which it was directed could be blasted to the moon. Could prices never peak? For small tightly held markets like tech stocks or bitcoin would be a cakewalk, the arbitrage of futures and physical markets ditto where gilded financiers were empowered to issue unlimited promises, relentlessly pushing settlement prices ever upward (drawing credulous onto the trapdoor) until downwards switch was flicked
Seize the collateral
That the economic singularity alluded to was a prophesied speculative play on a multiple leveraged NASDAQ ETF, and few securities purchasable by the mug reader could have more risk, I guess was intended to be an allusion to the king with no clothes or the shoeshine boy chatting the magnate.
No fundamental or comparative analysis of balance sheets, of markets or products or changes in technology, of seers or forecasters can have an iota of worth in making money anywhere that market prices are being schemed as they appear to me to be today. Only insider complicity. For the rest, the casino is quicker.
No One Knows the Future
Well, if one had a collateral issue, suppose one could always surrender an office building in say Chicago, NYC, or San Francisco, a pile of sh…. surrounded by mounds of poop.
Dennis L.
It is really hard to see where prices will go. Clearly, governments will try to issue more debt, as long as they can. This will tend to push prices up, even if the additional debt ultimately produces are no goods.
What happens if BAU fails and panic ensues ?
Panic will trigger a number of effects:
Mass migration which will result in borders being closed (wishful thinking)
Hoarding of raw materials and foodstuffs
Civil disobedience and lawlessness
Monetary collapse.
– and that is just a few.
I sincerely hope they can keep juggling the chainsaws . 🤞
Entropy , physics, maths ,geology are immutable .
JT
IGNORED
02/17/2024 at 10:02 pm
Depletion is an impossible thing to overcome and it’s baked in to the system. The existing infrastructure has depleting energy stocks that must be replaced by depleted mineral resources that require ever increasing energy inputs just to maintain the system. If you can’t grow your energy supply what happens? Kinda of a 101 issue no one can argue around it. Entropy wins ask your great great grandfather he’ll explain it to you. There is no steady state.
ravi,
We will not overcome NRR on earth, there is plenty in the universe and plenty close to home.
Heard some wag suggest moving Venus to Mars orbit and vice versa. I know it can’t be done, but it has been done, stuff in the solar system is not where it once was.
We will solve those problems.
Dennis L.
Between depletion and ever-rising population, humans have a real problem.
If humans were not so ‘smart’ we’d not be in this position
Nature seems to like to challenge humans, evolution has been said not to be improvement of existing, but elimination of what does not work.
Dennis L.
Very funny https://t.me/leaklive/18184
https://t.me/leaklive/18231
Losers returning from Super Snatching 12 yr old boys in Bangkok — vax brain damaged to boot https://t.me/leaklive/18239
Vaccinated Hit by New Bombshell
COVID-19 vaccine shedding is real and Pfizer’s own documents are proof.
https://vigilantnews.com/post/vaccinated-hit-by-new-bombshell/
Record long-term sickness bodes ill for UK economic growth
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/record-long-term-sickness-bodes-170020606.html?guccounter=
RIP keith
Meanwhile … the Dutch Doomie DelusiSTANIS go about tending their gardens https://twitter.com/i/status/1758935516274213007
hahahahaha Not for Long
Poland has cheap coal-generated power:
The production of batteries for electric vehicles can be pointed out as a continuous trend. More factories are being opened, and the production capacity of existing plants in Poland and Europe is being strengthened rapidly. Given the shutting down of production of internal combustion cars and the announcement by successive automobile corporations of planned dates for the end of production of vehicles of this type, in the coming years this factor will have a positive impact on the employment of workers currently associated with the manufacture of components for internal combustion cars – engine parts or catalytic converters. We can expect them to find employment in a related industry once internal combustion car production is shut down.
https://www.colliers.com/en-pl/news/why-are-manufacturing-companies-entering-poland
Poland was depending on the coal from the Donetsk and Lugansk area from Ukraine . Since the SMO started in Feb 2022 , and exports out of Ukraine ( Russia ) stopped . they are hand to mouth . Polish coal is still extracted the old way with pick axes and shovels . The world now uses what is called ” open cast mining ” . This is don’t go down the shaft instead blow up the mountain top and expose the coal vein , bring in the Caterpillars , Komatsu’s and shovel the coal . Polish coal is too expensive and only survives because the coal workers union is too strong and subsidies. The trade union has the capacity to topple any government . Best of luck to the idiots .
https://www.npr.org/2022/12/06/1140894436/poland-is-facing-a-coal-shortage-this-winter
F789 the Pollocks too!
Coal imported from Ukraine is more important than most of us realize!
ECB tells staff: If you’re not green, you’re not wanted
“I don’t want these people anymore,” top central bank official Frank Elderson told an internal meeting, POLITICO can reveal. Lagarde says she stands by him.
FRANKFURT ― A top European Central Bank official stunned employees by saying people who don’t buy into the institution’s green objectives aren’t welcome to work there.
Frank Elderson, one of six members of the ECB’s executive board, told an internal meeting: “I don’t want these people anymore.”
His comments, verified by POLITICO, have sparked outrage among ECB staff, who described them as “authoritarian” and said they showed a free and open discussion about climate change ― and the role the bank should play in tackling it ― was no longer possible at the Frankfurt-based organization.
At the meeting earlier this month, Elderson asked employees ― some in person, some online ― “Why would we want to hire people who we have to reprogram? Because they came from the best universities, but they still don’t know how to spell the word ‘climate.’”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-tells-staff-if-youre-not-green-youre-not-wanted/
What if we are changing the climate? Germany is going first, they are trying it; perhaps think of it as an experiment?
Mn has been unusually mild this year, yes weather but snow during my childhood was real and deep, 1950’s.
Dennis L.
If we are then we are even more f789ed… cuz as you can see we set records year after year for burning sh it.
Anyhow … don’t worry about it.. We are F789ed in so many ways… worry about exponential growth on a finite planet if you want to worry….
I love GW it snows and melts off the driveway the next day.
Green energy and recycling are part of a new religion.
Neither really exist.