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Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers.
The United States started moving industry offshore in 1974 (Figure 1) in response to spiking oil prices in 1973-1974 (Figure 2).
Industry is based on the use of fossil fuels. Electricity also plays a role, but it is more like the icing on the cake than the basis of industrial production. Industry is polluting in many ways, so it was an “easy sell” to move industry offshore. But now the United States is realizing that it needs to re-industrialize. At the same time, we are being told about the need to transition the entire economy to electricity to prevent climate change.
In this post, I will try to explain the situation–how fossil fuel prices have spiked many times, including 1973-1974 (oil) and more recently (coal in 2022). I will also discuss the key role fossil fuels play. Because of the key role of fossil fuels, a reduction in per-capita fossil fuel consumption likely leads to a transition to fewer goods and services, on average, per person. A transition to all electricity does not seem to be feasible. Instead, we seem to be headed for increased geopolitical conflict and the possibility of a financial crash seems greater.
[1] When fossil fuel supplies become constrained, prices tend to spike to high levels, and then fall back again.
Economists and energy analysts have tended to assume that fossil fuel prices would rise to very high levels, allowing extraction of huge amounts of difficult-to-extract fossil fuels. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the past has shown forecasts of future oil production assuming that inflation-adjusted oil prices will rise to $300 per barrel.
Instead of rising to a very high level, fossil fuel prices tend to spike because there is a two-way contest between the price the consumers can afford and the price the sellers need to keep reinvesting in new fields to keep fossil fuel supplies increasing. Prices oscillate back and forth, with neither buyers nor sellers finding themselves very happy with the situation. The current price of the benchmark, Brent oil, is $81.
[2] Historical data shows spiking oil and coal prices.
When world oil prices started to spike in the 1973-1974 period, the US started to move its industrial production offshore (Figure 1). The very low inflation-adjusted prices that prevailed up until 1972 no longer held. Manufacturing costs climbed higher. Consumers wanted smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, and such cars were already being manufactured both in Europe and in Japan. Importing these cars made sense.
More recently, coal prices have begun to spike. Coal prices vary by location, but the general patterns are similar for the types of coal shown.
Before China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, coal prices tended to be below $50 per ton (figure 3). At that price, coal was a very inexpensive fuel for making steel and concrete, and for many other industrial uses.
After China joined the WTO, China’s coal consumption soared (Figure 4), allowing it to industrialize. Figure 3 shows that the extra demand initially pushed coal prices up a little. By 2022, coal prices had soared. At present, coal prices are part-way back down, perhaps partly because higher interest rates are dampening world demand for coal.
Natural gas prices also soared in 2022, at the same time as coal prices. Both coal and natural gas are fuels that are burned to produce electricity. When the coal supply is constrained, utilities will try to purchase more electricity produced by burning natural gas. However, it is difficult to store much natural gas for future use. Thus, a shortage of internationally traded coal can simultaneously lead to a shortage of internationally traded natural gas.
Having oil, coal, and natural gas prices spiking at the same time leads to inflation and to many unhappy citizens.
[3] The 1997 Kyoto Protocol encouraged the trend toward moving industry to lower-cost countries.
In Figure 1, I show a dotted line at 1997. At that time, an international treaty stating that the participating countries would limit their own CO2 emissions attracted a lot of attention. An easy way to limit CO2 emissions was by moving industry overseas. Even though the US did not sign the treaty until later, the treaty gave the US a reason to move industry overseas. We can see from Figure 1 that US industrialization, as measured by the energy per capita required to industrialize, began to fall even more rapidly after 1997.
[4] There were many reasons besides the Kyoto Protocol why Advanced Economies would want to move industry overseas.
There were many reasons to move industry overseas besides spiking oil prices and concern over CO2 levels. With such a change, customers in the US (and European countries making a similar change) gained access to lower-cost goods and services. With the money the customers could save, they were able to buy more discretionary goods and services, which helped to ramp up local economies.
Also, industry tends to be polluting. Smog tends to be problem if coal is burned, or if diesel with high sulfur content is burned. Mining tends to produce a lot of toxic waste. Moving this pollution offshore to poorer countries would solve the pollution problem without the high cost of attempting to capture this pollution and properly store it.
Furthermore, business-owners in the United States could sense the opportunity to grow to be truly international in size if they moved much of their industry overseas.
[5] All the globalization and moving of industry overseas had a downside: more wage and wealth disparity.
In a matter of a few years, the economy changed to provide fewer high-paying factory jobs in the United States. Increasingly, those without advanced education found it difficult to provide an adequate living for their families. The high incomes were disproportionately going to highly educated workers and the owners of capital goods (Figure 5).
[6] Part of what caused the growing wage and wealth disparities in Figure 5 was the growing industrialization of China (Figure 6).
China, with its growing industrialization, could outcompete whole industries, such as furniture-making and garment-making, leaving US workers to find lower-paid jobs in the service sector. Similar outcomes unfolded in the EU and Japan, as industrialization started moving to different parts of the world.
[7] The indirect impact of the Kyoto Protocol was to move CO2 emissions slightly away from the Advanced Nations. Overall, CO2 emissions rose.
Anyone who expected that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol would reduce world CO2 emissions would have been disappointed.
[8] The direct use of fossil fuels plays a far more important role in the economy than we have ever been taught.
Thanks to the direct use of fossil fuels, the world can have paved roads, bridges made of steel, and electricity transmission lines. It can have concrete. It can have pharmaceutical products, herbicides, and insecticides. Many of these benefits come from the chemical properties of fossil fuels. Electricity, by itself, could never provide these products since it has been stripped of the chemical benefits of fossil fuels. Electricity is also difficult to store.
With the benefit of fossil fuels, the world can also have high-quality steel, with precisely the composition desired by those making it. With only electricity, it is possible to use electric arc furnaces to recycle used steel, but such steel is limited both in quantity and quality. US production of steel amounts to 5% of world supply (primarily using electric arc furnaces), while China’s production (mostly using coal) amounts to 50% of world supply.
I highly recommend reading the article, Trapped in the Iron Age, by Kris De Decker. He explains that the world uses an enormous amount of steel, but most of it is hidden in places we can’t see. Today, with the US’s limited steel-making capability, the US needs to import most of its steel, including steel pipes from China to drill its oil wells. We cannot see how dependent we have become on other countries for our basic steel needs.
China and India have both based their recent growth primarily on rising coal consumption. This is what has kept world CO2 emissions high. The US is now exporting coal to these countries.
[9] Citizens of Advanced Economies are easily confused about the importance of fossil fuel use because they have never been taught about the subject and because their worldview is distorted by the narrow view they see from within their homes and offices.
Figure 8 shows that the sector with the highest share of electricity use is the commercial sector. This includes uses such as stores, offices, and hospitals. The most visible energy use is lighting and operating computers, which gives the perception that electricity is the greatest energy use. But these businesses also need to be heated, and heat is often produced by burning natural gas directly. Businesses also need back-up for their electrical systems. Such back-up is typically provided by diesel-powered generators.
Residential usage is similar. It is easy to see the use of electricity, but heat is generally needed during winter. This is often provided by natural gas or propane. Natural gas is also often used in hot water heaters, stoves, and clothes dryers. Occasionally, wood is used to heat homes; this would go into the non-electricity portion, as well.
The thing that most people do not realize is that industrial use and transportation use are extremely large sectors of the economy (Figure 9), and these sectors are very low consumers of electricity (Figure 8). Also, if the US and Europe were to re-industrialize to produce more of our manufactured goods, our industrial sectors would need to be much larger than they are today.
In recent years, electrical consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the industrial sector has averaged about 13% of the total (Figure 9). Industries typically need high heat levels; such heat can usually be achieved at lowest cost by burning fossil fuels directly. Wikipedia claims, “Electric arc steelmaking is only economical where there is plentiful, reliable electricity, with a well-developed electrical grid.” An electric grid, powered only by intermittent electricity from wind turbines and solar panels, would not qualify.
In Figure 8, electricity consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the US transportation sector rounds to 0%, for every year. Even the amount of biomass (ethanol and biodiesel) used by the transportation sector doesn’t have much of an impact, as shown in Figure 10.
A major issue is that transportation is a broad sector, including trucks, trains, planes, and boats, in addition to private passenger autos. Also, I expect that the only electricity that would be considered in the transportation energy calculation would be electricity purchased from an away-from-home charging facility. Electricity used when charging at home would likely be part of residential electricity consumption.
[9] The narrative saying that we can transition to an electricity-only economy, powered by intermittent wind and solar electricity, has major holes in it.
One major issue is that the pricing of wind and solar tends to drive out other electricity providers, particularly nuclear. Intermittent wind and solar are given “priority” when they are available. This leads to very low or negative prices for other electricity providers. Nuclear is particularly affected because it cannot ramp up and down, in response to prices that are far below its cost of production.
Nuclear is a far more stable source of electricity than either wind or solar, and it is also a low-carbon source. As a result, economies end up worse off, in terms of electricity supply per capita, and in stability of available supply, when wind and solar are added.
Another issue is that wind turbines and solar panels are made with fossil fuels and repaired using fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels, we cannot maintain electricity transmission lines and roads. Thus, wind turbines and solar panels are as much a part of the fossil fuel system as hydroelectric electricity and electricity made from coal or natural gas.
Also, as discussed above, only a small share of the economy is today operated using electricity. The IEA says that 20% of 2023 world energy supply comes from electricity. The amounts I calculated as “Overall” in Figure 8 indicate an electricity share of 18%, which is a bit less than the IEA is indicating for the world. Figure 8 shows an early upward trend in this ratio, but no upward trend since 2012. Fossil fuels are being used today because they have chemical characteristics that are needed or because they provide the energy services required in a less expensive manner than electricity.
Even in the early days of the Industrial Revolution, wind and waterpower provided only a small portion of the total energy supply. Coal provided the heat energy that both industry and residences needed, inexpensively. Wind and waterpower were not well adapted to providing heat energy when needed.
If we are short of inexpensive-to-extract fossil fuels, relative to today’s large population, we certainly could use some new inexpensive source of stable electricity supply. But this would not solve all our energy problems–we would still need a substantial amount of fossil fuel supplies to grow our food and keep our roads repaired. But if a new type of electricity production could reduce the demand for fossil fuels, it would make a larger quantity of fossil fuels available for other purposes.
[10] Practically everyone would like a happily-ever-after ending, so it is easy for politicians, educators, and the news media to put together overly optimistic versions of the future.
The narrative that CO2 is the world’s biggest enemy, so we need to move quickly away from fossil fuels, has received a great deal of publicity recently, but it is problematic from two different points of view:
(a) The feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels without killing off a very major portion of the world’s population seems to be virtually zero. The world economy is a dissipative structure in physics terms. It needs energy of the right kinds to “dissipate,” just as humans are dissipative structures and need food to dissipate (digest). Humans cannot live on lettuce alone, or practically any other foodstuff by itself. We need a “portfolio” of foods, adapted to our bodies’ needs. The economy is similar. It cannot operate only on electricity, any more than humans can live only on high-priced icing for cakes.
(b) The narrative about the importance of CO2 emissions with respect to climate change is quite possibly exaggerated. There are many other things that would seem to be at least as likely to cause short-term shifts in temperatures:
- Lack of global dimming caused by less coal dust and reduced sulfur compounds in the atmosphere; in other words, reducing smog tends to raise temperatures.
- Small changes in the Earth’s orbit
- Changes in solar activity
- Changes related to volcanic eruptions
- Changes related to shifts in the magnetic north and south poles
Politicians, educators, and the news media would all like a narrative that can explain the need for moving away from fossil fuels, rather than admit that “our easy to extract fossil fuel supply is running out.” The climate change narrative has been an easy approach to highlight, since clearly the climate is changing. It also provides the view that somehow we will be able to fix the problem if we take it seriously enough.
[11] Today, we are in a period of conflict among nations, indirectly related to not having access to enough fossil fuels for a world population of 8 billion. There is also a significant chance of financial collapse.
In my opinion, today’s world is a little like the “Roaring 20s” that came shortly before a major stock market crash in 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. After the Great Depression, the world entered World War II. There is huge wage and wealth disparity; energy supplies per capita are stretched.
Today, NATO and Russia are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine. Russia is a major fossil fuel producer; it would like to be paid more for the energy products it sells. Russia could perhaps get better prices by selling oil and other energy products to Asian customers instead of its current customer mix. At the same time, the US claims primary leadership (hegemony) in the world but, in fact, it needs to import many goods from overseas. It even needs supply lines from around the world for weapons being sent to Ukraine. The Ukraine conflict is not going well for the US.
I do not know how this will work out. I am hoping that there will not be a World War III, in the same way that there was a World War II. All countries are terribly dependent on each other, even though there are not enough fossil fuels to go around. Perhaps countries will try to sabotage one another, using modern techniques, such as cyber warfare.
I think that there is a substantial chance of a major financial collapse in the next few years. The level of debt is very high now. A major recession, with lots of collapsing debt, seems to be a strong possibility.
[12] A presentation I recently gave to a group of actuaries that touches on several of these issues, plus others.
My presentation can be found at this link: Beware: The Economy Is Beginning to Shrink
I just realized for the first time that the US and Europe probably cannot unfreeze Russia’s assets because those assets include not just forex reserves, but also gold, which would be demanded back immediately upon being unfrozen. That gold has probably already been transferred/stolen to suppress gold prices. Ergo, the freeze is permanent.
All of the details that no one thinks about.
Western companies left a lot behind when they stopped doing business in Russia after that glorious day February 24 2022.
I have no idea how the money might balance out, but Russia had some gains as well as those losses on their “frozen” assets.
all of that is probably final and nonnegotiable and might as well be ancient history.
Ivan , the Russian gold is in Russia and not in Fort Knox or London . The shifting of gold to Washington and London was because the warehousing facilities in Europe were damaged by the war and Washington convinced the Europeans that a Russian invasion is imminent ,so better to send their gold to Washington for safety and storage . Of course it was a sly move by the FED to force the Bretton Woods agreement . Stalin did not fall for the sleight of hand and kept his gold in Moscow . Moscow is a buyer of gold and takes physical delivery of the metal not via LME but via smelters in Switzerland . The Russian assets will be unfreezed , matter of time . China has it’s own plan .
https://www.thegoldbullion.co.uk/blog/chinese-bank-buys-huge-gold-storage-vault-in-london/
https://tass.com/politics/1792345
“On situation with Russian assets
International reserves, which are highly liquid foreign assets at the disposal of the Bank of Russia and the Russian government, consist of funds in foreign currency, special drawing rights, a reserve position in the IMF and monetary gold. After Russia launched its special operation in Ukraine, Western countries imposed sanctions against the Bank of Russia. In addition to freezing the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves […]
” In addition to freezing the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves […] ” —-This are technical words used in sanctions , but the West can do nothing about the Russian gold since it is physically located in Moscow . Physical location of an asset is very important . I give the example of oil . Technically speaking the worldwide inventory is about 3bn barrels( onshore + on sea) of this about 800 million is in China . Will China ship its crude to bail out the West in case of a crisis ? or Can the West grab this oil ? No way .
Russia was dumb enough to keep 300bn in forex reserves in hostile nations. Wouldn’t be surprised if at least some of the gold was there too. I don’t know details and Russia hasn’t shared this info, to my knowledge.
Tit for tat . Putin signs decree to confiscate West assets .
https://tass.com/politics/1792345
ravi, yes i know, but the question is whether the sums that can be confiscated by russia are sufficent to balance the loss. i am guessing not.
I dont know. Entropy seems to be taking hold.
What does “indivisible security” mean for China?
Why did they so like the Russians term?
It means they invade Taiwan.
Why are they waiting? They are coming up with their own lithograph steppers. The Taiwan ones will not survive the fight.
They say China will invade Taiwan by 2025. That seems about right. We will see. If China builds it’s own steppers is Taiwan really that important?
The trend seems to be to nationalize assets.
So many flash points for WW3.
I dont see big industry moves from here. Industry just moving to Vietnam or Pakistan. Entropy.
Here in the USA there is a very persistent myth. Everybody knows it. “WW2 got us out of the great depression”. I think ww3 will be very entropic.
Nixons one China promise seems like another world.
If China invades Taiwan is this new BRICS alliance really going to play “hold my asset” just minus the USA?
Here come’s the lockdowns ,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vaccine-stocks-erupt-after-bird-flu-cases-reported-us-australia
I imagine that vaccine manufacturers are saying, “Our fortune is made!”
I wonder how much effort went into getting bird flu cases to spread to humans. Helps ramp up GDP!
(Marittime Executive)
My impression is that, this time, as first stage, they are spreading something to animals in order to prepare well the basis that virus really pass from animals to humans.
The previous time, with Covid 19, the story was not so credible..
Please have a look to the news below..
“Bird Flu is Now a Major Threat to Marine Life
The H5N1 virus is spreading rapidly among seabirds and sea mammals, causing deaths from pole to pole”
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/bird-flu-is-now-a-major-threat-to-marine-life
“Bird flu was previously considered primarily a threat to poultry and secondarily a potential human pathogen. But it has now become a terrifying, albeit still largely unquantified, threat to marine life too.”
It is difficult to count dead marine life, including birds, so they really don’t know how widespread the illness is.
Yeah, it’s like with the weapons of mass destruction, no one knows how many Iraq had for sure .
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/05/22/why-is-the-us-creating-deadlier-more-contagious-bird-flu-strains/
“Under the guise of creating bird flu vaccines, U.S. government agencies and private funders like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are bankrolling gain-of-function research to make bird flu viruses more lethal and transmissible among mammals.”
Somehow, this is not surprising.
do you have any credible evidence that the Gates’s are bankrolling research to make bird flu viruses transmissible to mammals, and so to presumably humans?
If so—why would they do that?—there has to be purpose.
as ive pointed out numerous times, any drastic reduction of human population would undermine our complete social support system.
the gates’s et al are not so stupid as to imagine they would be immune from catastrophe on such a scale.
wealth of all of us is propped by all of us—no exceptions.–no ”safe havens”.–no bunkers other than in the very short term.
if you owned a da vinci painting—without other people willing to buy it if you sold it…its prime function would be a patch a hole in your roof—own a rolls royce car—but without ordinary people to supply fuel for it—you have a luxury chicken coop.
There’s no way to solve or manage the issues discussed on this blog without culling the herd.
“as ive pointed out numerous times, any drastic reduction of human population would undermine our complete social support system.” Low carbon or zero carbon energy policies would immediately result in the deaths of billions. Have you ever tried to heat your home with renewables only in the winter?
“the gates’s et al are not so stupid as to imagine they would be immune from catastrophe on such a scale.”
They’re not stupid.
I do think some of them are delusional. They are loudly proclaiming that they believe they can replace a large portion of the workforce in industrialized societies around the world with AI.
There are also claims of some of them buying up large tracts of farmland and expensive doomsday bunkers. They don’t think they need most people alive in order to survive. Given their strong support for constant wars and “family planning” in every single country around the world. I don’t think they think they need or want a large and expanding human population.
Norman, I think at this point you are telling yourselves and other comforting lies about your worth to 1%. You may be able to fool yourself or others on here, but you aren’t fooling the billionaire club.
PC Roberts should stick to politics.
Gain of function is just another psy-op based on junk science.
https://viroliegy.com/2022/10/24/its-gain-of-fiction-story-time-with-rfk-jr-and-friends/
https://odysee.com/@drsambailey:c/gain-of-function-garbage:c?src=embed&t=145.834043
Just in time for the election?
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/biden-goes-all-war-coal
Biden Goes All-In With War On Coal
What is the point? Weaken the US, and leave more coal (and perhaps some oil and gas) for the newcomers that take over the US? This is in the craziness arena.
I know this issue was raised in the US state of Georgia (where I live). Not only does the state not have enough electricity, without keeping coal and gas supply on line, and adding more gas, Georgia will also have a problem with taking water supply that is needed by farmers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jpm-predicts-global-ai-data-centers-will-consume-681-olympic-sized-pools-fresh-water
This is a question for Tim or the guy who should not be named: is there a website, on substack or elsewhere, where all refereed papers and perhaps also MSM articles about covid vaccine damage are listed?
Voldemeddy.
Doesn’t work, even with DuckDuckGo
These articles seem to be references:
https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2024/04/new-comprehensive-review-examines-potential-harms-of-covid-19-vaccination-and-intramuscular-vaccination
Also:
https://www.bmj.com/content/384/bmj.q488
“Covid-19: Two rare vaccine side effects detected in large global study ”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8556676/
“Serious complications of COVID-19 vaccines: A mini-review” (2021)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/03/health/covid-vaccine-side-effects-takeaways.html
Thanks! I failed to find anything useful using google, and was too busy to try something else.
In answer to your question, I’m not aware of any site that has a comprehensive or even a large listing of papers and articles dealing with vaccine injury or side effects. If I do find one, I will post a link.
There is a book on the dark side of vaccine science, published in 2022, entitled Turtles All the Way Down — Vaccine Science and Myth, which takes information from hundreds of academic papers and other sources. The references from this book would be good to have. But in the Internet age, nothing is simple any more. The publishers decided not to include the references in the text of the book but instead to publish them online. They gave a URL for access . But when I visited that link, the hosting site TINYURL asked me if I wanted to take out a free two-week subscription, and I didn’t want to sign up for anything. But if you are interested, it might be worth your while to subscribe and download their references.
This is the link:
https://tinyurl.com/TurtlesBookEngRef
Thanks for posting this link.
People have been so brainwashed into thinking that all vaccines are miraculous that they will not even consider the possibility that they can have major problems.
Getting people to look at the issue is difficult.
Opens fine for me Tim. I clicked on a few papers to check and apart from having to go to the archived version for one, all working.
I bought that book and quite a few others that are being banned or rewritten for my daughter. One about Palestine, I bought 3 times from different places and on each occasion within 24 hours, I received an email saying not available at this time or similar(notice not saying out of stock).
I’ve just tried that link and it opens fine this time. I’ve downloaded it for future reference. 276 pages long! No wonder they didn’t include it in the paper version.
Fitz, I wonder if somebody wants to stop people from reading about Palestine, or if all the vendors have sold out due to a sudden surge in demand?
One well-written book I enjoyed reading on the subject of Palestine under the British mandate is One Palestine Complete. It seems to be available from Amazon in hardback for a very reasonable price.
https://www.amazon.com/One-Palestine-Complete-British-Mandate/dp/0805048480/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
Need some levity:
It would seem the recession has not hit here yet. Well, maybe the cost of material for clothing, need to economize with the cost of gasoline and all. At lease the autos are compact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6eq1mIXIAA
Dennis L.
Wrong link above, this one is even pet friendly.
Only scanned the first video, Hudson was not compelling.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WS4NQNxeRz4
Dennis L.
You may not have intended to put up this link, but I think it is still relevant.
The End of Financial Colonialism | Richard D. Wolff and Michael Hudson
The video is an interview featuring Michael Hudson. It starts out with a discussion about how bad US/China relations are under Biden. Hudson offers the suggestion that perhaps China’s best course of action would be to cut off exports and imports from the United States as soon as possible and replace them as quickly as possible with imports/exports from the new enlarged BRICS organization.
Under this scenario, poor nations would be well off to default on their debt to the West. With their new-found funds thanks to defaulting, the poor nations can perhaps set up some trade with China.
It would seem to me that some version of this narrative may, in fact, be what takes place.
“Under this scenario, poor nations would be well off to default on their debt to the West. With their new-found funds thanks to defaulting, the poor nations can perhaps set up some trade with China.”
Interesting idea. Too damn busy now trying to apply some of the ideas here to listen to everything.
Dennis L.
Here is a reminder not to be a doom-is-nigh permabear. Doom may very well arrive slowly and gradually. Art Berman posted this in July ’22 when gas prices were blowing out:
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1543924626371354625
>> Energy is the economy.
>> Germany’s trade surplus has collapsed because of energy.
>> You can blah blah blah about neoclassical economic flows like capital & labor but the price & availability of energy is not even the elephant in the room.
>> It is the room!
Let’s take a look at Germany’s balance of trade two years into the conflict:
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade
Zoom out to 10 years or Max
Looks like everything is fine. Gas prices back to about normal and Germany with a trade surplus. The 2030’s are going to be brutal, but NOT JUST YET!
2030 is looong way off. I think it’s going to be difficult just to make it there! We haven’t even had our Great Depression yet how do you stave off that? Have the U.s add another 30 trillion to its debt? How much debt was added during Trump and Biden? It grows exponentially!
no Great Depression 2.0 by manipulating the economy to gradually decay via moderate inflation maybe 4% per year.
by the rule of 72, a 4% inflation rate will halve the value of money in just 18 years.
you will be that much poorer in 2042.
how old are you again?
c’mon tell us how old.
the GFC was 16 years ago in 2008.
why do some people say that 2030 is a long way off?
it’s only about 5 and a half years away.
and very neatly, 2040 is another 16 years from now.
massive economic disasters are on the way and they will get here when they get here.
I find it hard to believe it. what are they exporting?
Cars and machine tools, same as usual, I guess. Not sure how their chemical industry is doing.
Without enough energy imports, Germany can’t do much of anything.
We saw how badly Germany was squeezed, just recently. It would seem like this scenario could happen easily in the future. We just don’t know the timing.
>> We just don’t know the timing.
Indeed, but 2030 seems perfectly plausible and 2040 sounds even better. I wonder how many cheeseburgers I can eat by then.
and how many pounds of dark chocolate could I eat by then if I surprisingly live that long?
Once you start down the dark chocolate path, forever will it dominate your destiny; consume you it will.
https://media.makeameme.org/created/like-a-chocolate.jpg
This guy on Substack is good.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-end-of-science-as-a-useful-tool?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email
And as I was spending hours trying to troubleshoot my Elecraft KX3 radio and writing a Word for Windows summary of my troubleshooting efforts to them, I found that I could no longer simply send the file to My Documents and from there send it as an attachment to my email like I had done so many times in the past.
Now I see a new face on Word for Windows festooned with crap that prevents me from doing the essentialk things : save and sending the file to My Documents Folder. They they say that my file is stored in my personal One Drive, an “app” that I had deleted from the very start (but the app remains as a permanent ghost folder on your computer.) Essentially Windows will pull every slight of hand to intercept your work and divert it to its data mining whether trying to get you to switch to Bing, transfer to My Cloud, to One Drive. Windows is like a store full of mirrors, trying to make it look larger than it is while offering nothing new of practical substance while disorientating you, as it has been the case for a long time. It has been the Johnny come lately with it’s big lawfare club and cash reserves to buy out/destroy the true innovators after it won its browser war with McNeely and Netscape.
Useless , needless complexity- all fluff, and now as extension all this ChatGPT AI will spew even more BS in useless non productivity in academia and technology like what Honest Sorcerer is saying. In the end, food, shelter, energy, transportation, and reliable communication are what matter .
I build my own to date, stuck with Win 10. Advantage is none of the “junk” generally get when purchasing a ready to use computer. Win 11 is tough, finding the controls is a pain, cmd is there but well hidden.
Copilot is useful.
Dennis L.
Why not install Ubuntu? granted it, too, is no longer what it used to be. I have two PCs, and I uninstalled windows in both.
I think the linked article is good. It points out that the science is fairly well known by now; what has been changing is the technology. The author quotes Joseph Tainter and talks about diminishing returns to added complexity. No wonder things aren’t going too well.
I would add that faith in computer modeling has grown, with the lack of actual new technology. The catch is that computer modeling doesn’t model added complexity well at all. It tends to miss the nuances. It makes innovation look better than it really is.
“Reaching the end of offshored industrialization”
Next up…
“Reaching the end of industrialization”
Thanks Gail!
I am afraid that is the way it works. Over the long term, it is not possible to depend on industrialization from around the world.
Kurt Cobb unravels the fantasy world as posted by Denise L here .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2024/05/yet-more-boondoggles-extracting-carbon.html
Interesting:
” If asteroid miners were able to unlock vast amounts of ore from either of these and get it to Earth, prices of those minerals would likely plummet as huge supplies hit the market.”
So what? If you find an oil well which yields a thousand barrels of oil/barrel invested you are rich no matter what the price.
Move the pollution off spaceship earth and you are a greenie the envy of all greenies.
Cobb thinks of one trip. Oil moves by a string of tankers, think a string of Pt cubes one mile square.
As for zero gravity, think of a coal mine. Do you want one where the shaft is zero gravity or earth gravity? That one is a pretty easy choice, have the lumps gently lift out of the shaft and grab them as they go by. That is EROEI.
We have the engineering, Starship making an orbit and returning would be encouraging.
Dennis L.
There is no need to try to convince a true believer. I have given it up.
He will simply ignore whatever which does not fit his narrative.
The world needs at least a small number of boondoggles. They provide jobs and added demand for fossil fuels, educational institutions, and many other parts of the economy. They provide an excuse for added debt. A few of them might even turn out well.
If there is a glut of supply then why are onshore inventories falling ?
https://x.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1780021983679541758/photo/1
Oh come on, levels are only back to Jan ’22, roughly. Collapse, death and destruction are coming soon enough; no need to exaggerate the predicament 🙂
zero-suppressed plots create a lot of mischief.
For what it is worth, total US stocks of crude oil and petroleum products at refineries are down.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTRSUS1&f=M
And we know the US strategic petroleum reserve is down.
Won’t matter as we are entering into a period of deflation and lower consumption. Inflation was a distraction…
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense/id1506469669?i=1000656499699
If new car prices need to drop a lot (from different comment), and Target needs to cut prices because
“Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goods”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.html
We seem to have a coming deflation problem. There is also the huge overhang of commercial property that can only get larger, as more retail stores go out of business.
I worry the government will try and interfere to keep prices artificially high. I know that they paid farmers to plow under crops during the depression because of lack of “demand”, the unemployed didn’t have the funds to buy food. (My grandfather ate dandelion stems so he wouldn’t starve.) The government would rather destroy food to try and keep farmers afloat than use it to feed the poor. They did similar with “cash for clunkers” with the automobile market under President Obama. The government will want to intervene to try and stop the deflation, if it is possible to interfere to the point of stopping deflation, without destroying the currency through hyperinflation.
Also:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/walmart-target-unleash-price-cut-tsunami-working-poor-hit-brick-wall
LNG will save the world .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1793089539176816809/photo/1
Your link goes to:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/zachry-files-bankruptcy-amid-challenges-golden-pass-2024-05-21/
Firm building QatarEnergy-Exxon LNG plant in Texas files for bankruptcy
By Curtis Williams
May 21, 2024
I can’t imagine that the other one is doing well financially, either. The article seems to imply that somehow the LNG export terminal will be completed as planned, the owners hope. I suppose that they are looking for a new lead contractor that will be better able to handle the challenges, including low natural gas prices and (sort of) high interest rates.
Unsold new cars piling up .
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/21/new-vehicle-supply-turns-to-glut-for-many-brands-automakers-roll-out-incentives-but-not-nearly-enough/
The big issue seems to be, “The average listing price of new vehicles in April, at $47,333, was up a hair from a year ago.” People can’t afford new cars at this price. They need big incentives. The only brands without glut seem to be Toyota, Lexus, and Honda.
The US is determined to start WW3 now before it declines further. After WW3 the issues of a finite world will remain. Regardless of which side “wins” we will need to set human population numbers for each country and enforce (with a complete lack of compassion as Kulm says, for the greater good) them. Likewise for air, land and sea pollution.
the US makes overly complex overpriced military stuff for corporate profits not for military advantages.
the US will lose in a WW3 if it is not nuclear.
if it is nuclear then everyone loses.
it is impossible to “set” and “enforce” population and pollution numbers.
“Treadmill economics” is feeling more real by the day here in the UK. The missus was given a £60 parking fine last week for overstaying in a retail car park by 18 minutes. I’ll spare you the rant, but the point is that in the past this wouldn’t have been an issue. We’d have paid it and moved on with our lives. This time I have written to the store manager threatening to boycott the store unless the fine is cancelled. I doubt they will be able to do anything about it as the car park isn’t owned by them but I’m making the point to the store manager that all these arbitrary fines will make it prohibitively expensive for people to use shopping centres.
Other people are refusing to pay their Council Tax. Some can’t (for obvious reasons) but others have the money and are refusing to do so, even turning up in court to represent themselves to refute the Liability Order (that’s where the Council can deduct money from your wages).
United Kingdom doesn’t really produce anything.
The North Sea oil was the last gasp. All it now has is the noble titles and the never ending royal family soap opera.
It had its good moments, but it has run out of resources so the standard of living will just decline to match what is available.
“With an annual output of £183 billion, the UK remains the ninth largest manufacturing nation in the world.”?
https://www.makeuk.org/insights/publications/uk-manufacturing-the-facts–2022#/
From the horse’s mouth
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers-web-version
Exports from UK
Cars 37 bil sterling
Mechanical Power Generator 35 bil
Medicinal, Pharma 25.7bil
Crude oil + refined oil 31.5 bil
Unspecified goods (what is that?) 17.1bil
Land Rover owned by Tata Motors of India
Rolls Royce owned by BMW
Aston Martin owned by a Canadian
https://senecatradepartners.com/elementor-7376/
Manufactured goods make up 49% of all UK exports.
So, basically, all UK has now are luxury cars, with foreign owners; Power generators ; big pharma ; oil. In another stat it says Precious Metals is UK’s largest export; I am not aware of gold or silver mines in there.
So it all comes down to luxury cars, Precious metals, and power generators and afterglow of oil industry.
Elsewhere it says 5 million brits engage in manufacturing. I assume most of the rest are in ‘service’ industries.
Interesting!
Does the result not rather depend entirely on the annual input to generate this munificent £183 billion of output?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery. – Mr Wilkins Micawber
Yep, exactly that. Some attribute Britain’s resurgence in the 1970s & 1980s to Margaret Thatcher, conveniently forgetting that is precisely when we ramped up oil and gas production in the North Sea. Without it, I suspect we’ll return to a 1960s standard of living… and then some…
I also think multi-generational households will become the norm in the coming decades.
No ‘BAU’?
‘Most’ ‘economic thinking’ is ‘short run’ and ‘redundant’? ‘It’ ignores the ‘supply side’? ‘Growth’ {and ‘civilisation’} depends upon ‘cheap’ F.F. – those so called ‘halcyon days’ are ‘over’. ?
“The crisis now unfolding, however, is entirely different to the 1970s in one crucial respect… The 1970s crisis was largely artificial. When all is said and done, the oil shock was nothing more than the emerging OPEC cartel asserting its newfound leverage following the peak of continental US oil production. There was no shortage of oil any more than the three-day-week had been caused by coal shortages. What they did, perhaps, give us a glimpse of was what might happen in the event that our economies depleted our fossil fuel reserves before we had found a more versatile and energy-dense alternative. . . . That system has been on the life-support of quantitative easing and near zero interest rates ever since. Indeed, so perilous a state has the system been in since 2008, it was essential that the people who claim to be our leaders avoid doing anything so foolish as to lockdown the economy or launch an undeclared economic war on one of the world’s biggest commodity exporters . . . And this is why the crisis we are beginning to experience will make the 1970s look like a golden age of peace and tranquility. . . . The sad reality though, is that our leaders – at least within the western empire – have bought into a vision of the future which cannot work without some new and yet-to-be-discovered high-density energy source (which rules out all of the so-called green technologies whose main purpose is to concentrate relatively weak and diffuse energy sources). . . . Even as we struggle to reimagine the 1970s in an attempt to understand the current situation, the only people on Earth today who can even begin to imagine the economic and social horrors that await western populations are the survivors of the 1980s famine in Ethiopia, the hyperinflation in 1990s Zimbabwe, or, ironically, the Russians who survived the collapse of the Soviet Union.” ?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/07/01/bigger-than-you-can-imagine/
https://www.facebook.com/cosheep
Governments find it increasingly difficult to collect enough revenue from “regular” taxes and from borrowing, so they try to raise other fees to high levels. Anything that might work.
Snap elections in UK –4th July .
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/05/22/serving-up-a-metaphor/
The Eeriness of England .
https://indi.ca/the-eerieness-of-england/
I am having one of those Mandela Effect thingies … I could have sworn oil usage was around 32 percent, coal 27, natgas 24, or thereabouts for a total in the 80’s, but ourworldindata shows it’s actually 29, 25, and 22 percent…
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix
A few more edits to the simulacrum and we’ll have all of our energy needs met, one cubic mile of platinum and all the rest.
It has to do with which method a person uses.
Our World in Data uses the method that gives a high weight to those energy sources that generate electricity directly. They divide by about .4 (equivalent to multiplying by 2.5), under the assumption that they save about this much fossil fuel input energy, to produce this much electricity. They are trying to get back to “Equivalent Primary Energy Consumption.” They call this the Substitution Method. The Energy Institute, and BP before them, used this method. This method gives more weight to renewables.
Unfortunately, what is important is not the primary energy that goes in, but “energy for use that comes out”. A large share of what we use fossil fuels for is to generate heat. Electricity provides mechanical energy, and also heat, if electricity is paired with the correct devices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) count what comes out of the system. This is referred to as the Direct Method. These are the numbers you remember. I used this method in my chart.
Thanks Gail.
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Europe’s top exports . Making me go —hmmm .
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-the-top-export-in-each-eu-country/
I expect that European countries will need fossil fuels to provide these exports.
Yes, soon the market for cars, airplanes, and euro vaccines will dry up. IL-96 is available to replace the 737 type airplanes, cars are plentifully produced in Eurasia, and vaccines are definitely one product that will not cross the West/ROW border.
Car production is declining since 2017 . Petro products are dependent on imported basic component viz crude and NG of which EU has none . Aircraft manufacturing is a dead industry .
” Civil aeronautics is one of the most successful EU’s high-tech sectors. European industry is world leader in the production of civil aircraft, including helicopters, aircraft engines, parts and components. It provides 405000 jobs, generates €130 billion revenues and plays a leading role in exports, amounting to €109 billion (in 2019). However, with aircraft production rates cut by one third, the entire aeronautics supply chain has been strongly impacted by the severe drop in air travel resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The competitiveness of civil aeronautics industry strongly depends on its capacity to innovate in order to deliver ever safer and greener products. Industry spends a sizeable share of its revenues on research and development (R&D), which is reflected in an increasing number of patent applications. R&D expenditure from both industry and governments was estimated at the level of €8bn in 2019.
Although the large aeronautical enterprises are located in a few Member States (in particular in France, Germany, Italy and Spain) the industry is characterised by an extended supply chain and a fabric of dynamic small- and medium- sized enterprises throughout the EU, some of them world leaders in their domain. ”—- From EU website .
Regarding pharma products it will have an edge as far as I can see . Some very important products being insulin from Denmark ( Novo Nordisk) and many leading edge chemical manufacturers BASF , Bayer , Sanofi etc . How many forests will the Baltic countries cut to provide wood products ? Makes me go —hmmm .
https://www.acea.auto/figure/eu-passenger-car-production/
A lot of German exports depend on Eastern European supplies. Cars are manufactured in Austria or Slovakia in the name of German brands.
1. Thanks Gail for all your work.
2. Insurance and grift.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-ruthless-insurance-companies-using-drones-to-stiff-homeowners/ss-BB1mQupa?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=32450711b54a41b78a36fc08cfb11a08&ei=11#image=4
Truth and honesty are essential for a functioning society, spreading risk is just that, everyone kicks in to smooth out the losses so one individual is not wiped out with a given event.
Dennis L.
As far as I can see, this is partly a problem of inflation in underlying costs issue. The bubble in wood prices is working its way through the system, for example.
It is partly a problem related to falling asset prices, now with higher interest rates. Insurers and reinsurers have a lot of long-term bonds on their balance sheets. When interest rates rise, the amount of “surplus,” which determines the amount of premium that can be written, falls. In fact, it falls by a disproportionate amount.
The US stock of private homes is getting older. A lot of these homes have roofs that are reaching the ends of their lives. Replacing roofs is a big expense for homeowners. Disreputable roofers come around to homeowners and explain to them how they can claim that their roof has been damaged by hail or another storm and get their roof repaired. This saves the homeowner the expense of replacing the roof, himself.
There is also a problem with more people moving into areas that are scenic, but subject to damage. People like to live next to a forest, but that means their home is more likely to get in the way of forest fires. (And many people don’t want underbrush cleared.) People like to live next to the ocean, but that is where hurricane effects are greatest.
There seems to be relatively little climate change effect, except to the extent that climate change leads to more La Nina years. La Nina years seem to have more storm claims.
“There seems to be relatively little climate change effect”
In my local newspaper, there is an article blaming climate change on the rise in insurance premiums. I hate that the left blames every storm or natural disaster on climate change, or that driving an EV will solve climate change.
Climate change is the quick and easy answer to every problems coming up. How about, the insurance companies are having the same problem as Silicon Valley Bank, plus a whole lot of inflation?
The other excuse to use for problems that arise is of course: Russia. As in: It is “likely” that Russia was involved in the fire that recently destroyed Warsaw’s largest shopping centre, says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. However, he added that investigations are still ongoing.
The Putin trip to China was interesting. Large amount of ministers accompanied. Russia and China setting up for essential overland trade during war. Nothing will move on the seas. Three major events all war related during the break. Raisi, FICO, and the Putin trip.
And of course the hug heard round the world.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/05/russia-china-reveal-their-global-agenda.html#comments
The translation of the agreement begins as follows:
It is the organizations with the resources for industrialization that will succeed. They will likely share them, as necessary, with their partner nations, but not otherwise.
If you cut off resources to a nation it dies. Kill off all the buffalo. This is more or less a joint declaration of war. China is off the fence they have chosen their side. It won’t happen overnight. China is going to double its ICBMs from 500 to 1000. Undoubtably with Russian design improvements. In return Russia will get bulk weapons manufacture from China. Possibly drone swarm technology that will turn the poor Ukrainians life into living hell. Chinas ICBMs are in the east out of range of submarine launched cruise missiles.
In the meantime the USA will get cut off from their cut via dollar use slowly but surely. Off course Russia and China would prefer it not go kinetic just kill the buffalo off and the USA go back to a poor agricultural nation like the 1900s. Same as south America. Of course they are preparing for kinetics in a big way. The USA is odd man out. Trump wanted Russia as a partner. The neo liberals wanted China as a partner actively created it beginning with Bill Clinton. In between the two they have alianated both and they have teamed. This was Kissinger’s worst nightmare.
The state department is surely beyond consolation with this turn of events. God only knows what they will pull next. There is no plan B to China using the dollar and storing its wealth in treasuries. There is no plan B to Russia falling to sanctions. The pivitol question is of course that of all organisms is it better to burn out or fade away. We find out their choice soon. Dont be surprised to see mysterious big badda booms. The implications of this event are beyond calculation. Be assured wheels are turning.
unfortunateley the visit from russian president putin to china is showing the world that world war 3 is occurring right now it is the brics versus the westerners all this was by design to reduce population only with reduced population do we stand a chance facing a great depression remember this tough medicine is coming from the malthusionists not the cornucopians who believe that we live in an infinite world so the elders give us a choice now take the jab or paticipate in world war 3 the chance to go back to the plandemic is still there if the world’s sovereign governments commit 100 % to the pandemic treaty to reduce population peacefully .
“Massive amounts of wastes are generated by wind power plants:
“1.35 Million Tonnes of “Hazardous Material”, Germany Admits No Plan To Recycle Used Wind Turbine Blades
…, there’s also the problem of the massive steel reinforced turbine foundations, which are simply being swept under a layer of dirt as well. These too will forever have an impact on ground and ground water.”
A recent report on ZDF German public television explains that currently there’s no plan in place on what to do with the turbine blades, which weigh up to 15 tonnes each. There’s no way to recycle them to use as raw material for new blades.
Currently the old blades are being shredded and the chips mixed in with concrete. “You need too much energy and power to shred them,” says Hans-Dieter Wilcken, the operator of a German recycling company. Burning them is also not an option.”?
https://energyeducation.se/massive-toxic-wastes-from-wind-power-plants/
Easter Island?
Yes, it’s a real mystery why the Easter Islanders created so many stone statues of John Kerry.
I also notice the article says,
“Used wind turbine blades have been designated hazardous waste and no one knows how to deal with them.”
It even takes too much energy to shred them.
We know that solar panels were hazardous waste, but I wasn’t aware that wind turbine blades are as well.
My best friend of 25 years. (age 40)
Woke up late on sat around 11AM. He does construction so something seemed off. His wife just let him sleep, thinking he was tired. He got up and went into the living room and s*** himself and collapsed on the floor in a pile of his own… Went into convulsions. Wife called paramedics, rushed him to hospital. Woke up the next day in hospital downtown.
He does sub-contracting so he doesn’t have health insurance. Asked to leave and go home. They wanted him to stay and do test- but told them he couldn’t afford.
He said 3k charge for staying over-night and 2k for ambulance ride.
really bad sad story mob
it describes a death wish society
So much for ‘MAGA’
Keep us posted on how he makes out
Thanks Norm.
He seems okay now. But I think he’s really shook up from it. Doesn’t really know what to think.
And it’s not the jab. He’s AR15 owning -don’t trend on me. kinda guy.
And his wife took the jab and she’s perfectly fine. Worked the whole pandemic in healthcare. While he was laid off for majority because of lumber prices and supply chain bottlenecks. (new home construction)
Shedding from wife? I start to feel ill around people recently injected. Jab or no jab some just go early. Three of my friends went early. One a cop one ex military in very good physical shape. Lots of muscles anyway. One way overweight. All nice guys. A-holes seem to live forever.
This of course is just me but I wonder if some souls choose to leave now.
Best wishes for your friend. Construction is rough on the body. Perhaps time to slow down? Apartment handyman? Handy man? Florida cant get enough of those guys and they make bank. Way easier on the body than new construction. Time to look at diet and exercise. Acupuncture is the bomb. It has never failed to cure me. Cheap at $40 a session. Those needles I like!
I don’t know what it is. New construction guys seem to have difficulty. Some states have financial relief for medical expenses. Most do not.
Sub contracting is fast becoming the norm even in professions where it is not historically normal. Given a choice most will choose to tack that $8 a hour on their wages and sign the subcontract document. I always did. Subcontract acupuncture for medical. Some construction companies don’t care. Employee or subcontractor individuals choice.
yes, that’s what I suspect.
And I sorta get the feeling he may suspect that too. But he’s not educated in science and all this stuff. Very smart guy, but lacks knowledge.
And him and his wife have been together since high school. Lost their virginity to one another. Longest relationship of anyone I know. So it’s not my place to speculate, and what difference would it make?
I hear that. You cant discuss this with individuals. People have there minds made up. Their right. I just blab here.
Very sad. They sound like nice people. A true love affair. I am sorry.
The reality everyone is exposed jabbed or not. All of us should be evaluating the different remedies for vaccine injury. I take some proactively when I’m going to be around a lot of people.
I know a young man classic vaccine injury. Early thirties heart attack two weeks after second dose. Now other problems. Vaccine is not a topic of discussion. At all. Just wants to get on with life. Its human nature.
That’s 99% of people. Non topic. Were back to normal. End of story.
blast, I am surprised people in that situation don’t take matters into their own hands w.r.t. execs and board members of companies involved. To each his own, I suppose.
Ivan
The reality is most victims seek to find peace within them selves.
Vengeance is contrary to that.
Sounds like a drug overdose. Could be using. Street pills / painkillers aren’t exactly quality-controlled.
If it was a fent OD he would have turned blue and never woke up from sleeping in. Diaphragm muscles stop pulling air in. Stimulant OD and he wouldn’t have been asleep.
What was described was much more descriptive of the died suddenly phenomena than a OD. diabetes onset perhaps. I assume they would have taken blood at the hospital and Identified that. Sounds like another mystery drop to me. Shedding is a real thing.
Anabolic steroid abuse is fairly common on construction sites. I dont know what that would look like.
The injections are a case study in lack of quality control with the documented DNA contamination even if one bought into the novel experimental therapy premise.
One would think that at the very least widespread and independant identification of the proteins created by the injections would be instituted. Then we could get a idea if the injections actually fulfilled their stated purpose the premise aside Certainly a interesting experiment but I’d like to know the results.
I continue to note that Iran Russia and China all instituted their own “counter measures” for the virus.
Interesting fact Italians share 6% DNA with persians. Iran got hit very hard from covid. Italians harder than most of Europe.
To be fair as I stated I knew three individuals who died early all before the jab.
Maybe it was “long covid” . 😉
Your friend could check d-dimers to exclude any thrombotic occurrences and T-cells and IgG4, to check, if the immune system is okay with respect to shedding. Such lab test shouldn’t be too expensive.
The world does not bend to sentimental tales.
The Kageyu (inspector) – from the movie Hara Kiri
There will be no room for sympathy. If you want sympathy you wont’ find it here.
The people here are those who have been there, done that, and seen everything, including me.
Nothing really moves my mind. The end of the Civilization is a huge event and your friend is just another of its many victims which will go unrecorded.
The world will become like a Dr. Zhivago story Kulm!😎get ready for some roommates . Capitalism will be dead and you won’t like what replaces it 😂
Two tidbits from Russia. Kewanee already posted about the new pipeline to China in the joint Russia China declaration, but was baked in the cake already years ago.
1) The declaration also discussed the WHO. They are going to collaborate with it. There is no escape from what is coming, everyone in this forum understands, only the timeline is different. There will be new global lockdowns and vaccines as part of reducing consumption and population. Russia will remain one of the place with better opportunities for protection but as you all know chinese lockdowns have been quite severe.
2) at an event in Moscow we were shocked to meet a Trump supporter embassy employee. Everyone agreed he was genuine. Other employees were there which was in itself surprising. The Embassy had been closed to regular embassy work for a few years at least, but he repeatedly encouraged a friend in need of a new passport to please come in, they would take care of him (another friend two years ago had to fly out with his family to get new ones). So the Deep state process that kicked Nuland out seems real to me, and there is possible some sanity/interest in staying alive within the government. I assume the new group is doing what they are supposed to do not just for passports but also for diplomatic work with the host country.
About point 1, as long as we have bloody wars we can be sure that leaders will be satisfy enough for the consequent reduction of consumption and population and also will not have time to organize pandemics and vaccines.
So, considering that we are in evil times, better to cheer for wars than for vaccines, better to cheer for the army industry complex than for the pharmaceutical industry complex.
Making a comparison with ancient past times, we have to see if the caste of the warriors will prevail on the caste of the alchemists.
Between the two, I prefer to die with a sword in my hand than with a syringe needle in my arm.
Of course I’d rather not cheer for anyone of the two.
I do not know if you thought this through. The Ukrainians are dying in droves with a sword in hand right now, and what good does this do for them? They are dying for Black Rock. Likewise the 1891-1895 italian generations, they died for something else. I am practical, and think that there is no difference between a vaccine and a bomb.
I think that there is a difference.
I don’t like fighting and I would like to leave in peace.
But with a sword in my hand there are chances that I can survive, maybe I win, maybe I lose, with a bad treatment in my blood, surely not.
But, of course, let’s hope for the best.
Kind regards
Bioweapons are the sword Student. We just lived through the demo. If there was any doubt omicron put an end to that. Demo #2. Eight spontaneous genome changes with no prior history of the most monitored virus in human history. Obvious demo. Intentional demo. Deterrent demo.
Now we find out. What do they have that’s the real deal not a demo. Were they bluffing? Can they create counter measures that work? Are they the bio weapon masters they portrayed in the demo?
Sinopharm worked. Sputnik v worked. So what is needed is something that those two technologies dont work.
The demo was supposed to be a deterrent. Instead it backfired. Sinopharm and Sputnik V sneered at the demo. Sneered at both the measure and countermeasure. The demo made enemies. Now it’s on like donkey Kong. If they have the goods. My guess they dont. If they do we will find out soon. Maybe this fall. Perhaps with trump and his “beautiful beautiful vaccine”. Which is the same as the virus because a beautiful beautiful countermeasure can not exist without a beautiful beautiful measure.
It’s not just postponing the Ukraine op why the entire deepstate is out to get Trump behind bars out of sight. It’s his covert action that pushed China off the fence. When they finally got to execute the Ukraine project China wasnt on board. China kept Russia not just alive but flourishing. And now the framework is established for gunfight at OK corral. Trump blew decades of planning. Instead of a takedown it’s two to one against in a existential fight. Everything they set up for decades blown by trump and his ego. Reversing everything.
The JCPOA. START Treaty. Tore down for trump tower. China was supposed to stand down. Not only did they not but they decided to shoot the other way. Because of Trumps demo. How can you trust a ally that flips like that?
When Biden came to power they didn’t realize they had lost China.That was unthinkable. They went ahead with the Ukraine project. With China gone the sanctions were doomed to fail.
They made China. China was going to lead the pack. All it had to do was comply with the sanctions and it was pack leader. Trump trashed that. Cute China doll chose the other guy.
Yes on like donkey Kong dear Student. For all the marbles. We dont hold swords they do. Get right with god. Help if you can
You are probably right that the covid experiment didn’t go as planned.
Also, Trump abandoned the treaty that was supposed to stop Iran as a nuclear power.
Certainly, the sanctions backfired.
The planning by the powers that be isn’t going as intended.
if you check history—no plan has ever gone as intended
Probably true!
bio weapons do not work too well. But current war technology (non nuclear) is incredibly lethal. You are sitting there with a sword in your hand (or a cigarette, it does not matter) and a guided bomb comes in and blows you up. same for drones, now produced in hundreds of thousands units just in Russia.
Yes blastfromthepast, but bioweapons are not like swords, bioweapons are like the weapons used by mongols in the siege of Caffa in Crimea in year 1346.
Please see:
“After two years of siege, the Mongol armies were forced to retreat after being decimated by the plague, which also infected the Genoese after Ganī Bek decided to throw plague-ridden corpses over the city walls. As a result of this act of biological warfare, the epidemic quickly spread to Caffa and forced even the Genoese to abandon the city after the Mongols lifted the siege.”
https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assedio_di_Caffa
Bioweapons are like swords that hurt yourself and the enemy.
It is another subject, it is also like a gun that shot your enemy and you as well.
Big difference.
Maybe who launched Covid 19 thought to be smarter than the mongols in 1346… but ended in the same way.
Who launched doesn’t know history and think to be the most intelligent one on the planet….
Anyway blasfromthepast, I think that my conversation with our dear friend drb753 drove you out of my original point.
My point is that untill normal wars are so present on the planet (and the industrial army complex is satisfied), it is going to be difficult for the other industrial complex (big pharma) to organize another pandemics with consequent vaccination program.
So, between the two ones (hating both), I have a sad slight preference for the first industrial complex…
Having said that, it is much probable that also pharma industrial complex will come back to bite.
Forget my metaphor of the sword, the point I want to make is this one above.
Have a nice afternoon.
A RNA virus when used as a biological weapon is akin to a tactical or enhanced radiation weapon. The area of destruction is limited in scope.
The virus can be targeted genetically that alone is huge in reducing friendly casualties.
Since a RNA virus mutates so rapidly and that mutation is invariably to be less harmful this can also be used to limit friendly casualties. This is a function of time and distance. A virus released on the other side of the world will get to you in a couple of months. A RNA virus can be counted on to be severely mutated and less harmful.
And of course there are counter measures that you can administer to friendly populations. A sterilizing virus such as omicron can be released should the mutated virus still be unreasonably harmful.
The real barrier to biological weapon use is the incredible adaptability of the human body. Truly a amazing thing. Countermeasures that rely on immune response can be created via multiple technologies. You can pretty much count on countermeasures being rapidly deployed by all partys.
If a virus is created and released that can not be countered with immune response creating a counter measure that is effective will be very difficult for all partys. with limited effectiveness high friendly casualties can be expected. A high lethality virus of this sort is akin to a thermonuclear weapon not a tactical nuke. Calling artillery in on your own position when things go wrong. As such high lethality biological weapons are much more useful as a deterrent than actually deploying them. Much like thermonuclear weapons. But calling artillery in on your own position when overrun happens and it actually has a unique mystique amongst militaries.
Such is the philosophy of most all nations armed with.weapons of mass destruction. The doctrine of behavior when encountering a existential threat. This behavior is rightfully considered criminally insane if exhibited by a individual but is SOP in regards to nations protocol regarding existential threats.
There are other considerations also if a nation relies on resources that are imported for its continuence. If you need those resources wiping the nation off the map that provides them is the same as calling artillery in on your own position. Warfare has been limited in scope for a long time seeking to influence and control not destroy but the doctrine of existential threat holds the behavior of complete destruction of all things in reserve.
While this doctrine is criminally insane for nations just as it is for individuals it can not be denied that it is in keeping with certain human tendencies that display appetites for power and destruction.
They can identity psychopaths with a high level of accuracy now by mapping the brain. They are about 20% of the population. They have a hard time of it not feeling compassion. They learn to mimic compassion and use it in what they perceive, life being a game of power where losing is unacceptable.
What moderates their behavior is the rules of the game not a inherent sense of compassion and fairness although as mentioned most are very good pretenders. They are usually very very good at winning. If they were not the trait would not continue via evolution of the fittest.
Invariably they are the winners in society in both business and politics.
It’s funny when someone’s brain is mapped and identifies them as a psychopath they are usually surprised but their spouse and family are not surprised in the least. The overwhelming majority of psychopaths are not violent as that is considered losing. That of course is a function of rules. If a psychopath is in a position to modify the rules they will always get changed so they win.
So, hegemon countries are a lot like sociopaths? The approach works, until it doesn’t. The rest of the world adapts.
Dear blastfromthepast,
I cannot map your brain from here, but from what you say either you seem one of the sector (biological and psychological war) or you are a strange fan of the sector who reads up after work, but doesn’t like sharing any link with us.
Yes exactly like psychopaths. I hesitate to say that because of the stigmatization about psychopaths. It’s not their fault they dont feel compassion.
Another undeniable model that is accurate is maximum power principle. It has less stigma. It is a clear formula for organisms to win. As long as infinate expansion occurs.
If you look at the mechanism set up where banks regard treasuries as a absolute store of value it’s one of the clearest examples of how maximum power principle is successful. As long as there is infinite expansion.
What Russia and China are doing is contrary to the USA continuing its operating principle. You do your thing we will do ours bye. That shuts down MPP. A psychopath doesnt take kindly to it either.
In a way I’m surprised. The infinite debt with infinite imaginary funding with no connection to the organic economy is on the brink IMO. I would think China and Russia would just lay low. I guess there is not infinite patience either.
So now we see. I feel the risk is that increasing levels of force are deployed to try and maintain MPP. At this point I have witnessed no behavior other than adherance to MPP. I question whether other behavior is possible. I see no indicators that it is.
IMO as terrifying as a dollar collapse is I think it is a preferable outcome if the alternative is continuing escalation of force to attempt to maintain MPP.
I note the deliberately introduced famine occurred in Ukraine in 1938.
There was widespread canabalism.
IMO deliberately induced famine on a civilian population in collective punishment is one of the cruelest and atrocious criminal acts possible.
Seven years later two nuclear weapons were dropped on civilians.
I had thought such brutal and horrific things were over in human history. I was wrong.
Blast, if psychopathy is a function of brain structure and can be accurately detected, then it can be weeded out systematically. What we (society, humanity) are largely missing is functional organizing structures and elimination of psychopathy could go a long way in resolving that.
Also, I know that intelligence is heritable and I assume brain structure and therefore psychopathy is heritable.
Blastfromthepast,
self-irony and sarcasm are qualities that I appreciate much.
Thanks for your interesting considerations.
The real problem I see with U.S. than with Russia and China, is that U.S. is a new kindgdom, born from aggressive, courageous and conquerors pioneers whose heirs are still in power.
Or at least that kind of attitude is still in power.
When the conquest of internal land ended, started the conquest of what was outside, with the same attitude.
My impression is that U.S. leaders don’t study much history and, at the same time, cannot fish back from old diplomatic habits or old behaviours towards foreign Countries, like other ancient kindgdoms can do.
You (I mean your Country) don’t treat with much respect, (except for cerimonies), foreign Countries.
I see this also in business, when I meet US people, most of the time they apply what works in U.S. and don’t consider what are the habits elsewhere.
The result is most of the time a complete disaster, either they conquer all without survivors or they destroy everything and go away without saying goodbye.
Chinese are different, they trade with you, maybe they make tricks, but they don’t come like bulldozers.
Russians are different too, they frighten me, but when you know them they can also be warm friend with you.
Both of them show respect for you and your Country, and they don’t treat your Country like a nice toy to play with or to destroy, if not pleasant.
I’ve seen and heard many intelligent people from U.S. Universities or other U.S. fields, but my impression is that this great values you can express (I mean your Country) don’t appear much in your deep-State, which actually rules your Country.
Student
Let’s just hope I am wrong about every single thing.
Have a good night.
Ivan
The point is not to identify people in some sort of pre crime Orwellian manner but to realize that there are people who make decisions in a different manner and they are attracted to power positions. Yes they will lie through their teeth and display all sorts of fake emotions. They learn to fake empathy at early age to fit in. Just like everyone they are a bit different. The problem comes when they get to make the rules. The problem comes when people dont use critical thinking to identify their bs. The problem comes when they are not allowing civilians access to food and calling it self defense. The problem comes when the way they evaluate the world is not taken into consideration in matters of war. The problem comes when they can say it’s not gain of function with a straight face and be charming to boot.
It doesnt mean we should route them out like space aliens. Simple common sense and accountability would be enough. Psychopaths are attracted to authority positions. People in authority positions should not be trusted without demonstrating they deserve trust. They should especially not be trusted when contradictions are observed.
https://modlab.yale.edu/news/could-brain-scan-diagnose-you-psychopath-guardian
The human population is an energy system. The recent shooting at the Slovak Prime Minister was very interesting as it happened in the declining coal town of Handlová, which formed a historical energy center of Slovakia. He was attacked by a former coal miner, now a retired poet and writer, who had several jobs in-between, like a security guard, a stonemason etc.:
https://www.fox41yakima.com/slovakia-reels-from-pms-shooting-as-suspect-goes-to-court/
I see this as an clash of the energy input and output represented by the coal miner and the rising complexity represented by the lawyer Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia.
If people are angry enough, they will retaliate against leaders that they believe got them into this problem. One way governments go down is by citizens killing off the leaders.
What is the reaction from your fellow insurance actuaries when you share this kind of information?
The post is fairly different from the presentation. You might want to look at the presentation if you haven’t.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Tverberg-Beware-the-Economy-Is-Beginning-to-Shrink-May-8-2024-1.pdf
They seemed to be quite interested. I received several invitations from actuaries to connect on Link-in after the talk. People I talked to before the talk were quite interested. My talk was toward the end of the conference, so I didn’t have much time to talk to actuaries afterward.
Another excellent post Gail. May I suggest a possible topic for another essay?
I would be really interested to understand how a declining or at risk insurance sector will impact the rest of the economy.
“One of the early warning signs of economic collapse caused by climate change is the retreat of the insurance industry.
As mundane as it sounds, the ability to insure housing helps to facilitate mortgage lending and the middle class lifestyle. Without insurance, home ownership would be a gamble for both mortgage lenders and borrowers and the real estate market would seize.
Moreover, existing individual homeowners with canceled insurance would be at risk of financial devastation, in the event of a fire or flood.
Unfortunately, this is becoming a reality today.
With increasing natural disasters, insuring property in some areas has become unfeasible. Once a property becomes uninsurable, it’s value effectively plummets to zero, as it cannot be sold to anyone requiring a mortgage.”?
https://www.collapse2050.com/collapse-of-the-u-s-home-insurance-system/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3BAECU-rsW55PK03-vigwwLxsvvte-g9loa7XfHj3islNOiDfBGKfnrUw_aem_ASEH43IMcHYkliESVMA6mIqHsZbdBx2AiwGpfbE5RHVBbqcEQ8gIYmBPTzGhGvSV90jFoVH00Y0eMPARpx3NDWn1
Even if the reason for the big increases is not climate change, it is convenient to blame the increases on climate change.
I am not aware that there is evidence of “increasing natural disasters.” The lecture I heard said there was now more hail and fewer tornados. There were increases in some parts of the country, but decreases in others.
Inflation has hit the insurance industry hard. So have higher interest rates on bonds, bringing down the values of their surpluses. There are many other issues, too, such as a large number of mold claims, and roofers looking to take advantage of insurance companies.
A multitude of wealth transfers in action.
I too wonder about property insurance rates (not just increasing property tax rates) driving mortgaged homeowners out of their homes and then these homes are being scooped up for pennies on the dollar by big vulture capitalists?
Homeowner insurance rate increases may be the straw that breaks many homeowners’ backs. If you can’t afford the home insurance, then by your mortgage contract, the bank can foreclose, even if your payments to the bank are current. Or is this actually a deleveraging tactic being used as an excuse by banks to preemptively bail out on previous poor business decisions based on errors in risk assessment or errors in investing reserves?
Apparently in high loss states like California (forest fires) and Florida (hurricanes)is there some justification for these increases, or is it because of poor bond yield investments by insurers or reinsurers? IDK. And then there are the HOA fee increases and increased property taxes and auto insurance rates (accidents involving EVs costing $$$$) with State Farm being downgraded for example and of course health insurance vs health care costs draining the lifeblood out of many people.
Insurers have the same problems that SVB bank in San Francisco did, but they don’t get the bailouts. It has to do with portfolios of long-term bonds and rising interest rates. They also have a big problem with inflation in underlying costs of coverage, and all kinds of people (including lawyers, roofers) trying to transfer costs to insurers.
With every other pocket of wealth held in treasuries it’s clear 401ks need to also hold treasuries exclusively to protect the owners from risky speculation. That 7.4 trillion dollars covers deficit spending for a whopping 22 months! I just hope there is not too much competition with the “foreign buyers” created by such strong demand for treasuries.
“They also have a big problem with inflation in underlying costs of coverage, and all kinds of people (including lawyers, roofers) trying to transfer costs to insurers.”
Sounds like a game of musical chairs to me, Gail.
or hot potato
As my mother sees it, and this may stem from a her experience in a much more homogenous low-trust country/society, much of what passes as “business” is just theft and swindling.
Then again, this point of view may stem from a Christian pov where taking from the have-nots is frowned upon.
I think that people forget that insurance companies are part of the financial system. Rising interest rates badly affect their financial balance sheets because insurance companies hold a lot of bonds, and the value of these bonds falls if interest rates rise. If there are actual defaults on bonds, this would cause a big problem too.
Also, inflation greatly affects property insurers, as I point out in another comment.
The insurance industry does not have the FDIC or an equivalent organization to bail it out when financial problems arise. We know from 2008, however, that AIG (an insurer) got bailed out when it had problems, so it is hard to say that there is no government protection.
I am cautious about writing about the insurance industry because, as an actuary, people expect me to be all-knowing about the current state of the insurance industry, and the ins and outs of insurance accounting. I know quite a bit from hearing other actuaries’ presentations at the conference, and from my work in the insurance industry, but I may miss things.
So if a really big claim show’s up like for AIG the insurance companies cant pay out in dollars it’s in bonds. The bonds are not worth anything on the secondary market since they were bought yielding 1%. The secondary market largly being a joke anyway. There is only one way to turn those bonds into dollars wait for maturity. That pay out is directly dependent on an equal amount of bonds being sold to someone either the same purchaser or someone else. If big insurance “deposits” the money in a “bank” the bank buys bonds with it. If the insurance company needs to pay out in a big way the bank does not have the dollars either and also must wait for maturity. In the final analysis it is only the “lender of last resort” the mysterious “foreign buyers” that can come up with lots of dollars fast.
Those dollars are created via the license agreement that allows their creation if a asset of equitable value is held as “collateral”. The “lender of last resort” is only that because it issues licenses to other institutions to create dollars through the “loan” “collateral” ponzu where bonds have been assigned the status of “prime collateral” by the same lender of last resort.
This status of “prime collateral” makes bonds the primary focus of the banking “industry” in contrast to investments in infrastructure business and non financial economy. Holding bonds is zero risk for a bank as long as they don’t have obligations to depositors (svb) or overspend on things like physical buildings (first republic).
The bonds however don’t provide enough return for anything other than an absolute minimalist financial structure. No buildings, no salaries. If a bank is to exist in the sense that we know it it must make loans at at least 2x bond returns and take in deposits with which it promptly buys bonds as cash ( dollars) is not considered “prime collateral”. While dollars are the base product of the banking “industry,” the bank itself must absolutely minimize dollar holdings as they are not prime collateral and by definition allow much less leverage. While banks may create large amounts of dollars through the “collateral” “loan” process they don’t own those dollars; the “borrower” does. That’s why if you pay off a loan prematurely the bank treats you like a rat. It’s not just that you have deprived them of interest. They now hold dollars something they must absolutely minimize from the financial standards dictated to them of “prime collateral”.
I am afraid you are right about these things.
And if reinsurers run into problems, they can put a big squeeze on the primary insurers by demanding more of the insurance premium. Reinsurers tend to run into problems if interest rates rise because then the value of their long term bond portfolio falls (so the quantity of premium they can sell falls). Growing high aggregate levels of reinsurance claims (think of fire in Maui last year) cause a big problem. Inflation in rebuilding costs causes a big problem, for reinsurers as well as the underlying insurer. This fire was quite possibly caused by downed power lines. (Disproportionately more of power lines are added with more wind and solar.) The fact that native grasses had been replaced by grasses that burned easily was another contributing factor. The area was dry, and there was a storm in the area. https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/science_snapshots/2023/meterologic-analysis-maui-wildfires.php
The bonds are not worth anything on the secondary market since they were bought yielding 1%. The secondary market largely being a joke anyway. There is only one way to turn those bonds into dollars wait for maturity.
You’re firing a bit fast and furious with this, no? The secondary market for govt bonds is NOT a joke. It trades hundreds of billions of face value a day. The bonds definitely ARE worth something or there would be no buyers other than primary dealers under compulsion. Sure, long dated bonds purchased at 1% coupons will be leaving their holders looking somewhat green at the moment, if purchased at similar yields, but by no means all bonds were purchased at that anything like that.
That said, govt bonds are a difficult investments for the little guy to trade in and out of because of the rapaciousness of brokers.
The bonds that insurance companies hold tend to be something other than government bonds, because these tend to pay a little more. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is pretty hard to trade these bonds. Insurance companies often buy fairly long maturities, but I am sure this varies. I would think that insurance companies could have a liquidity issue. Also, if interest rates rise, and an insurance company sells its bond, it will clearly lose money on the sale.
There are two kinds of insurance accounting: Statutory (using amortized cost) and GAAP (using market prices). If an insurance company is not publicly traded, then it likely can use statutory accounting. Statutory accounting feeds in losses on the bond portfolio only very slowly. But, if a company is forced to sell the bond to pay claims, then the loss on sale is immediately recognized. If the “surplus” of the company was low to begin with, selling “underwater” bonds will make the situation worse. The “surplus” determines how much premium and insurance company can write.
Gail, I want to congratulate you on this limited hangout.
Every post there are some incurable optimists trying to ask relevant questions like when can we buy that Gaza land after eliminating the natives? or for us Europeans, why does Russia still sells their gas and oil to countries killing its citizens?
But soon, the nazi brigade swoops in with talks of factories in space, magic forced jabs that will cure all your ills (just like a bullet to the head) and how great is USA! USA! USA! and everything goes back to normal.
So good job and don’t forget to remove this post – you don’t want the NPC to get any inkling of the real world.
P.S. Since you never got the jab you deserve to be sent to a concentration camp with all the antivaxxers, at least according to some of your favorite posters that somehow you never censor. But me calling them nazis, that is obviously not allowed so hurry up and reject this comment.
Your post won’t be removed. It will stand as testament to how deranged you are.
Your sarcasm is so advanced that OFWers think that you are a _____.
Welcome to this blog, one of the last remaining corner of sanity.
There is one factory-in-the sky person in this blog. He sincerely believes in that, although some of us have tried to show the fallacy in his argument.
Other than him, everyone seems to be quite reasonable here.
This is indeed the best of all possible blogs.
An oasis of relative sanity in an increasingly batshit crazy online desert.
As I am continually reminded every time Gail gives us a week’s hiatus between the close of comments and the next new post, and I am forced to go elsewhere for enlightenment, edification and entertainment.
Yes! An oasis of sanity.
might just be a mirage of course
A am also a fan of space manufacturing. Attended the SSI conferences in the 80s.
With the China/Russia moon base we (humans) can being to grow.
Let us remember the line from the AI in The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, can I stop hitting Cheyenne Mountain with rocks (large fast rocks)? Why? Because the mountain no longer exists.
Yep, we’re looking at an overall, global decline, but within that there will be relative winners and losers.
The deranged and declining West will obviously suffer reduced living standards, with cultural and moral collapse well advanced too. Some countries may experience a sudden, Soviet Union-style collapse.
The US Federal Govt looks to have a limited lifespan. At some point the money printing won’t work any longer, then poof!
Other countries coming off a low base will experience economic growth. They won’t get to experience peak consumption per 1960s USA, but it will be a big step up from where they were.
T’would be a good time to join BRICS, but Australia’s globalist poodles won’t allow that. Rather we’ll waste hundreds of $billions on nuclear subs that will never work and other stupid schemes.
‘Tis still BAU party time though folks, so enjoy!
Nb. If you meet a Russian, don’t forget to remind them that “correct use of pronouns in emails increases force lethality”.
“Other countries coming off a low base will experience economic growth. They won’t get to experience peak consumption per 1960s USA, but it will be a big step up from where they were.”
my guess is that at best from here going forward some Periphery countries will have a teeny-weeny step up before declining surplus energy hits them also.
“‘Tis still BAU party time though folks, so enjoy!”
great quote, well said, bravo!!
Am going to write a letter to Putin to ask if the next generation of hypersonics can be called “Wrong pronouns”. I am not asking for much.
I would ask him how does he feel to sell oil and gas to countries killing Russians (including Ukraine which pays with american dollars and US which imports oil straight to the naval bases).
But I forgot, we’re not supposed to look at what the politicians are doing.
Isn’t it amazing how pro-Russia CIA and US Army are (see a lot of commentators like Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor).
Do you mean the “neocons” have not taken over the CIA and military? I hope you are right. I would welcome a coup to free us from the river (Mississippi) to the Atlantic from the ZOG, and from the river to the Pacific.
I prefer Avenging Angle.
The way we live and we are bound to live is programmed by our infrastructure – our inheritage.
Because we don’t live together anymore with our cattle, that used to warm us, and even more their manure, we need fossiles to heat.
“Ricardo” – every country shall do what it can do best – allows effects of scale but leads to transport.
Our cities cannot be provided by ox and cart. There are needed fossiles. Cities cannot generate the electricity needed for electric transport. They need to use the agricultural areas close around. Long lines lead to loss of currency. That means food must be produced even farer away.
Our houses cannot be maintained, because they contain large glass panels that cannot be replaced by woodglass. Our roofs need modern materials, larch shingles are too heavy and they are difficult to transport. Birch bark and sods need another roof angle and are heavy.
It would be sensible to set priorities. It is more important to have a knife than a large heated livingroom. It is more important to have glass houses for food, than an impressive view.
We need private transportation to commute to our jobs. We cannot live next to the factory, like in the past. It is bound to our infrastructure.
It would be sensible to reduce private spending and reserve fossiles for industry use. But it is not possible. We would have to invest into another infrastructure.
Our infrastructure binds us to using fossile fuels.
It would not help to reduce population. With less GDP we couldn’t mainrain roads and electric lines for energy or communication. Satellite communication is high technology and only efficient by effects of scale.
It is our predicament.
Your last point about the population. This is why they will likely turn the world into different regions and unite the world under one banner. So, they can consolidate resources, such taxes, end tax havens, etc. I think the plan is likely 5 regions or something.
Good points! I expect that international trade will dwindle. Some countries will be cut out more, and sooner.
We do have a predicament!
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/biden-drains-entire-northeast-gasoline-reserve-bid-lower-gas-prices-he-trails-trump-double
According to the article.
“The entire US 1 million barrel Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve will be required to be sold and closed in fiscal 2024, according to bill text of government funding legislation unveiled Sunday.”
Also:
Gasoline doesn’t store well, so I can see the point. But it is not like anyone is talking about storing more crude oil, instead.
Anybody got somethings to say about the Iranian incident ? Is it a nothing burger ?
Unclear. But there could have been a drone in the area. The helicopter was 40+ years old and so probably immune to electronic warfare, but I assume the pilot must have had some sort of GPS, which could have been spoofed.
Some thoughts:
So many important persons in the same vehicle a big mistake.
Foreign Minister (responsible for restablishing diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia via China) and also Raisi.
Azerbijan is a key alley of Israel.
It seems an easy shot, but if that really happened, Iran will never admit.
In case so, it could have been in order to create chaos inside Iran, because foreign policy will not change..
Russians and Chinese will anyway know what happened and in case of terrorist attack, they could decide to stay even closer to Iran.
But they could decide to stay closer also in case of incident.
Iran is a huge Country, with incredible potential in the Middle East.
China has a contract to buy the Iranian oil and will defend this contract. I cannot imagine, anyone does such a contract without military options.
The plan today seems to hide the real actions that are taking place. We don’t know.
Generally speaking if an aircraft is taken down by enemy fire there will be telltale signs in the fuselage for investigators to see. But not in the case of electronic warfare, and if it was EW, we will never know the truth. I can only think of GPS spoofing though. It could also have been some loosening of blots while the aircraft was parked in Azerbajian.
Loosening of bolts is an interesting option in a wild and remote area like between Azerbaijan and Iran.
It could have been made by some Kurds who are also Israeli alleys like the Azerbaijani.
In case of incident, Iranians made one mistake (too many important persons in the same vehicle), in case of terrorist attack they made two (the second, trust Azerbaijani and also some of their own guards).
Apparently a U.S military plane was in the area at the time. A comment from the MoA article on the crash.
“A U.S Air Force 17 was in the air nearby when the helicopter crashed. It landed in Baku shortly after the crash. Prior to that no U.S. miltary cargo planes landed in Baku for over a year.
Israel War Report tweeted a small picture of helicopter shortly before the crash”
I believe he was also reported as dead in the U.S well before it was announced by Iran and Biden rushed to the White House on hearing he was missing. Where they expecting something more to happen, as his wellbeing isn’t top of their list.
Another coincidence in the long list of unfortunate coincidences, that only ever seem to happen to non western leaders, just after they agree deals that don’t suit the west.
The illegal encampment denied that they had anything to do with it, before it was even known if the helicopter had crashed or not and we all know they are desperate to get their backers in the fight. Given their history of lying and murder it came across as a confession.
Iranian Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, had a meeting with Putin and a group of what looked very much like a high level war cabinet straight after the incident. Then said this
“Naturally, this issue will be investigated until the end. And in due time we will make the necessary decisions on this matter,”
https://tass.com/world/1791159
Assassination is back like it’s the early decades of the 20th century all over again(Fico?) and we know how that ended. Expect more problems to arise, until the required reaction is achieved, then war on a scale no one can ignore and so the excuse they need to implement their preprepared solution(Ursula did say, by 2025 and my country didn’t change 1000 laws in around 550 days for no reason).
This talk is a bit ridiculous. This was just a figure head with no real power.
The cleric who died was a mover and a shaker exerting influence throughout the north Iran and Azerbaijan area. They were heading back to his pad.
Raisi is replaceable.
Cleric is not.
That’s not the point.
Both are dead that’s the point.
Really anyone is replaceable
But the scoreboard still counts.
Three copters only the one with VIPs goes down?
Wouldn’t your VIPs be in the best maintained coptor?
Uh this guy ordered a missile strike on uzirael not long ago.
Motive
Intent
Opportunity
Uzirael never ever expresses intent.
Opportunity in not proven
None the less I smell a dead fish.
Perhaps some fabreeze?
This is a good point:
“Another coincidence in the long list of unfortunate coincidences, that only ever seem to happen to non western leaders, just after they agree deals that don’t suit the west.”
So many coincidences it’s ridiculous.
https://x.com/BonheurSuis/status/1792338992387723473
As soon as the helicopter went down, stories started to appear saying India was involved.
India would be mad to have been involved, as they’ve just signed a very good deal with Iran for Chabahar and the possibilities that opens up with the North-South trade corridor are huge. India was of course threatened with sanctions and Jaishankar replied that today is the end of U.S domination over the region(he could be the next coincidence).
The North-South route will change so much and will bring the Stans and the Arabian Peninsula on side quickly, probably closely followed by Turkey and then that’s the end of the wests influence throughout western and central Asia except Pakistan. The Pakistanis are not stupid and I believe Iran has been working on bringing them in(remember the weird mutually beneficial missile strikes) and given recent events I’d guess succeeding.
The below has a lot of the information and the map at the bottom makes it clear how the success of this route would change the power dynamic completely(China does not appear to have a problem with this).
https://warnews247.gr/diethnh/asia-eirhnikos/ektos-dushs-kai-dolariou-to-pagkosmio-emporio-terastia-sumfwnia-indias-iran-rwsias-gia-autonomh-efodiastikh-alusida-indos-ypeks-h-kuriarxia-twn-hpa-teleiwse/
It’s noteworthy that Iran, India, china & Russia all made high level statements that these events will not change any of their agreements or future plans and the message from Xi was informative.
“China is ready to provide Iran with all necessary support and assistance. We firmly support the Iranian government and people in ensuring independence, stability and development and stand ready to work with Iran to deepen our comprehensive strategic partnership.”
So many choices for the next coincidence. I’m going to go for the ex president of Ukraine.
Me, I know nuffin’ but that my imagination is overstimulated
Maybe last Friday I noted this story which rather surprised me as I’s sort of understood that Iran and the Azzies were rather getting back together under the auspices of the new railway construction and the cleanup with respect to Armenia of the exclave and Yerevan’s succumbing to the blandishments of the great satan.
However, at a time when Tehran wants to normalise relations with Baku, some media outlets affiliated with SEPAH continue to use threatening rhetoric. Thus, Kayhan newspaper, which is the press organ of Iran’s religious leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei’s office, published threatening statements against Azerbaijan in its article on the Gaza issue.
In the article, it reads, “If you ignore it, it’s your turn after Israel!” published with the title. Also, in some parts of the article, Israeli-Azerbaijani relations were touched upon, and it was emphasised that more than half of Israel’s energy needs are met by Azerbaijani oil.
azernews.az/analysis/226203.html
I’d been looking over the specs of the series of hydro dams along the border which had recommenced several years back and of which the first project inauguration ceremony was held Saturday; and then the BIG surprise. Looking at the Tehran Times pics, Is Aliyev looking just a bit too smug???
Zoom in on the image on p2 under the headline “Iran-Azerbaijan: ‘unshakable friendship’ beyond borders”
media.mehrnews.com/d/2024/05/20/0/4991048.pdf
and here’s another at their concluding press conference
media.mehrnews.com/d/2024/05/19/3/4989997.jpg
It was interesting that they wreckage was located from a heat seeking image from a Turkish drone. Turkey is somewhat of a middle east Mephistopholese …
trtworld.com/middle-east/turkish-drone-spots-heat-believed-to-be-from-irans-raisi-chopper-report-18164215
It’s not beyond any great stretch of imagination that heatseeking imagery could follow three choppers through dense fog, though I guess in due course the wreckage will be closely examined for missile fingerprints
no consparacies these days—since the the conspiromonger in chief vanished down his own rabbit hole
Yep, the world is headed for massive conflicts because there is not enough stuff to go around.
That is obviously the way that the world was ‘meant’ to be.
Ever since mammoth hunting grounds became scarce, yes.
war is natural.
The “world” is an artificial construct of very high level complexity…….ruled over by the satanic……the ecology of predator-prey that has been the driving force of evolution implies the demonic. No loving God designed this place……
Higher order mathematics reveal that space time is not fundamental thus there is an underlying data structure to this realm beyond what 3D awareness can easily detect.
We are immersed in something else…..
I’ve started reading the bible – wasn’t raised with it, but I think it’s interesting and I like to learn about the stories that are shared between many religions, which I’ve only become aware of in recent years. Scroll down for English version options, anyone who is interested.
https://www.biblegateway.com/versions/
Anyway, what I find interesting is the entire concept that salvation requires believing and honoring God. The demand for deification and subservience runs contrary to what I would expect from a sublime entity. Likewise, I am reminded of this passage: “The Lord is a jealous and avenging God; the Lord takes vengeance and is filled with wrath”
Cro I’m surprised at your perspective because of your obvious deep observation of nature. It seems to me you are in agreement with the catholic church that were some of the first Europeans to inhabit northern Canada. They felt that all of the northern tribes spiritual traditions were of the devil and ppersecuted any that displayed those beliefs fiercely. Of course you are on the other side but share the dualistic perspective.
My perspective is the great beauty I observe in nature can be no other than a kind creator. Yes there is cruelty in nature. Cruelty is a human judgment. Have you ever met a uber predator like a cougar and felt it? That creature is walking death but it knows not cruelty. It is a unique creature of great beauty. That of course is hard to appreciate if it is chewing on your face. Haha. Actually my experience has been the thing we know as a cougar kills quickly from behind targeting the base of the neck targeting the spine.
Yes there is death in this beautiful world and that perhaps the hardest thing to accept.
I have in my life known men I considered predators but they had none of the nobility of the cougar. They were curiously empty like a shell with no inhabitant. The thing we call a cougar is about the farthest possible thing from a shell with no inhabitant.
The following is just my opinion. A human is not a cougar. A human can never be a cougar and a cougar can never be a human. It is mans purpose to discover his true essence and that includes compassion and love. Man can not seperate himself from compassion and love if he does so he denys his true nature. Man has the capability to effect force according to the elusive thing known as justice. In this he is no better or worse than a cougar but very different. To deny this capability is also to deny the true nature of a human.
I will continue to read your posts with great interest.
Hooray, Gail is back! Now we can dance again!
Here we go back to the Middle Ages, to a time when the English had just invented the synthesiser. Men Without Hats, a Canadian band, performs. They are joined by Canadian Fast Eddy playing a jester, LOL.
I don’t know through what wormhole this obscure band arrived in my homeland, but the first LP I bought, back in 1985, was by Man Without Hats. For a few months, before I graduated to better sounds, it was my favorite band. I’d almost forgotten about them!
I do love a bit of synth-pop.
Thank you Gail. Happy for the new post.
It had got so desperate out here we were about to start building a golden oil derrick.
LOL! Sort of like the golden calf!
Gail, question: in your “the economy is a dissipative structure” model, is “money” a store of energy, and thereby “debt/credit” a derivative form of energy? And if so, for the dissipative structure of the economy to grow, it must have growing debt? After all we have a debt based monetary system. Debt must always be growing in order for it not to collapse. When debt can no longer be created and expanded, the self organizing/dissipative structure then collapses? i.e. Seneca cliff?
I see debt as helping to finance companies and all kinds of devices that allow greater efficiency of one kind or another. For example, debt enables the building of machines and of factories to build all kinds of things, including machines.
Debt also allows “owners” of these businesses to pay their workers in advance of the time the output of the machines and factories is actually available. Thus debt smooths the way for the transaction. It allows workers to be paid, and indirectly these wages allow more goods and services to be sold in the economy.
From the buyers point of view, a new (to the owner) vehicle permits the person to get to work more quickly, so adds efficiency and more time for working, rather than to-from transport. Payment over the life of the vehicle allows the buyer to match payments with the earners wages.
Added debt very much smooths the way for fossil fuels to add efficiency to the economy. It particularly ramps up “demand” for energy products. It works until the return on the energy supply is too small to pay for the interest on the borrowed debt.
In a sense, money is a temporary store of value, as long as the system continues to pay back adequately.
“China initially had a soviet-style
40:48 economy but in 1978 a new leader came to
40:53 power in China Deng Xiaoping and he
40:56 analyzed the situation and he concluded
40:58 that the Soviet system is doomed to
41:01 failure and that’s of course dangerous
41:04 he concluded for you know for the
41:08 country and it’s better to abandon this
41:10 system and instead he looked at other
41:14 countries that had a more successful
41:16 monetary system such as Japan and
41:19 Germany and the US and he concluded well
41:23 we need to decentralize banking and so
41:26 when he came to power 1978 what what was
41:28 the key one of the key things he
41:30 introduced was he found it thousands of
41:34 banks thousands of new banks local banks
41:36 small banks regional banks specialized
41:40 banks all across China and the rest is
41:43 history that’s how you get high economic
41:44 growth “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=OdYmdKUiQNw&feature=emb_logo
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/how-china-became-a-market-economy/comments
Probably lots of debt, indirectly because of lots of banks.
debt is just promises on resources that don’t exist. the lapdog that worships 20% interest on his savings will find that it will be redeemed for nothing in the future. the human imagination is fickle. the first to realize that in this system that expends the resources first about printing out the claims on resources benefits the most from stockpiling those resources/assets
Money including gold is worth nothing unless there are products and services, that can be bought with it.
Debts are promises to pay someone in the future.
Degrowth – caused by less energy or less population – means, there are less products and services to buy for all money and debts in rotation. Debts become faulty.
That could be calles a Seneca cliff.
I suppose, they are introducing CBDC to moderate this. I think, it will not work.
There need to be goods to buy. The workers who make these goods need to be paid first, or they will stop making the goods.
in the 18th c the uk got rich because we were the first to extract coal and iron in quantity , convert it into merchandise, and sell it to those who didn’t have it—
mainly guns and cooking pots. (most things derive from that, one way or another.)
this worked as long as we made it, and lesser mortals bought it.
300 years on, and everybody expects to make ‘stuff” and sell it to everybody else—but thats where the system breaks down.
the world is now full of stuff–but wages only derive from constantly making more ”stuff”—which is the result of converting one form of cheap energy into another.
(there is no other way of making real wages)
we can’t go on increasing wages, because the capacity to buy ‘stuff” (ie convert energy) isn’t there any more
” wages only derive from constantly making more ”stuff”
We need cheap energy and other resources that that can be easily converted to “stuff” inexpensively for the system to work.
I would add that inflating asset values are quite different from adding wages reflecting the added output of the system.
Yes, the time will come when you can no longer find the fuel for your steam-powered Zimmer frame that you have relied on these past two decades. Then you’ll be Pagett without a gadget, LOL.
zemi
bet you didnt know that if you tape plastic caps from shaving cream cans on the back legs of zimmer frames–it makes them far more usable on carpeted floors.
but that comes from trying to help people,
instead of bellyaching all the time–so you wouldnt know that, would you
Bah, stop moaning, you old curmudgeon and coffin-dodger! Of course an amazingly youthful fellow like me wouldn’t know a thing like that. You probably learnt it when you were dating the Queen Mother, lol.
lol
come and deadlift 100lbs with me zemi—see who’s back gives way first
I pulled a 2 year old bison bull out of a mudhole two days ago. He was resentful and unappreciative.
He weighed around a thousand lbs……does that count as exercise?
Just checking as I am getting into the old fart category myself.
cro
nobody pulls 1000lb dead weight
That bison bull was definitely not dead,…lol.
I pulled 720lbs conventional as a younger dude. No wraps, belted.
cro
was it 720lbs dead weight on a flat surface to surface, with no wheels?
Damn straight. Black iron, York plates if I recall correctly….standard chromium
bar…..barefoot……powerlifting belt
bar height at level of 45 lb plate holes.
bar bends a lot under weights over 500 lbs.
Good god
I have trouble getting one 90lb bag of Portland on my shoulder nowadays.
Surprising?
“With an annual output of £183 billion, the UK remains the ninth largest manufacturing nation in the world.”?
https://www.makeuk.org/insights/publications/uk-manufacturing-the-facts–2022#/
just making a comment to check if it works in my email inbox for this session, it didnt last time for some reason
Any luck Norman?
I’m still getting the same problem, even tried getting notification of comments from another wordpress site, to see if it was just here and they came through regular as clockwork but nothing from OFW. I know you replied before that you tried a different email account, but was it with a different email provider?
Might be completely wrong, but I suspect it’s a provider issue.
i am still having problems fitz…. i seem to have tried everyhting
i got gail to unsubscribe me so i could start again
i cant figure it out and i dont thing gail can either—i get nothing in my email inbox
I can see if I can find something out. But I probably will have to work on it tomorrow.
Thanks Gail….would appreciate that.I just cant figure it out….I notic that the new sign in link you gave me shows njpagett instead of Norman Pagett—but it hasnt actually changed anything re my emails.
I didn’t personally assign the new sign in; probably WordPress did. I was thinking that your name was something you chose.
no i didnt choose it so wordpress must have—cant figure it out.
I always check the ’email me new comments’ button
if you do try to do something Gail can you email me directly because as the number of replies increases i wont necessarly find yours here on ofw itself
thanks
just trying a different link—see if this works
A few things that will surely save us – share the Good News!
(1) This new 500Gba oil find should be good for at least 15 years of world consumption. BAU 2050, baby!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Discovers-Massive-Oil-and-Gas-Reserves-in-British-Antarctic-Territory.html
(2) Solar-to-methane. He doesn’t discuss the technology in this video, but I guess they have a website or something that explains it. They use … *catalysts* … sounds legit!
https://youtu.be/_O6zCbcBjwQ
Human ingenuity wins again. Don’t worry, consume!
Perhaps! We keep trying.
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/7449
TSHTF. Second largest gas storage facility in Europe is destroyed.
I expect that the newspapers in Germany and other parts of Europe will say little about this. Europe desperately needs gas storage. It cannot depend on a steady flow of ships carrying LNG to fill its natural gas needs.
The Russian gas field that was supplying Europe is to be repurposed to supply China, as per the meeting declaration just posted from the Putin visit to China. This agreement was many months in the making. Europe is done as a low cost energy society.
Not a huge surprise. Hopefully, China can afford a significantly higher price than Europe. China uses natural gas sparingly.
Evil Putin fired the missiles himself, evil dictator that he be.
Meanwhile the dying and deranged Empire flails around haplessly.
Eat bugs Euro-morons!
US LNG Developers Feeling Cost Pressures, Labor Crunch
https://www.energyintel.com/0000018f-8341-d526-a3df-bbc729a20000
According to the article,
” The underlying issue is that world LNG prices are now back at ‘normal’ pre-Ukraine and pre-Covid levels, but US capex is still up by more than 30%. Something has to give.”
The author opined that Biden pausing a few of the LNG export builds may actually be somewhat beneficial, in terms keeping the demand for skilled workers more in line with the available supply. Steel prices and the availability of skilled labor are the biggest issues.
This is a brilliant summation of the connundrum. One factor not considered though is climate change impacts on global food production. Its starting to have an impact here in Ireland.
However, what about this? “By the lowest estimates, the reserves found underneath the Antarctic, if properly extracted, would be enough to fuel the planet for more than 500 years.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13429229/The-scramble-Antarcticas-black-gold-Russian-discovery-huge-oil-reserves-UK-territory-Falkland-Islands-worlds-valuable-real-estate-Putin-Xi-eyeing-treasure-frozen-seas.html
A piece of BS . The story is crap . The discovery was made by a research ship . Since when do research ships do exploration ? Read about this here and also the comments section . Quark in Spain explains . Use Google translate .
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2024/05/el-descubrimiento-de-petroleo-en-la.html
There is no climate change, expecially if you say it is man made
Oil and gas resources are very different. Even types of oil are very different from each other.
I think of energy resources near poles being mostly natural gas. Natural gas is terribly expensive to ship long distance and to store until it is needed. (Gas is often used for winter heat, and also to “balance” renewables that provide inadequate energy in the winter.) The huge amount of infrastructure (built using steel) needed for natural gas, and the infrastructure’s high cost become major issues.
Oil that is fairly light is easy to extract, but it tends to give little diesel and jet fuel.
What we especially need is somewhat heavier oil, that provides both gasoline and diesel. The cost of extraction has to be reasonable. Housing workers nearby is likely to be a problem. These workers need food and heat. The may need a doctor from time to time. They don’t like being away from their families. There likely will need to be an arrangement to bring these workers in for 2-week stays. All of this will be expensive. The Falkland Islands will expect to tax those doing the extraction, also.
“Fuel the planet for 500 years” wow! Is that embedded in the article? That seems like a lot of oil! I’m skeptical…but hopeful
It also says 500 billions barrels, which is more like 8 years.
It’s high time to put the theory of anthropogenic climate change in its rightful place: the garbage can of fake science.
But the narrative must go on!
Nice find; those pesky temperature records are going to have to be memory-holed.
Those 1930’s heatwaves are a nuisance!
Fewer heatwaves now with lower highs.
Unfortunately I do not see how the USA can reindustrialize. It took thirty years to move it to China. We gave our industry to China and provided massive capital to boot. Now if China wanted to move their industry to the USA and pay for it, it might be possible. I find that unlikely.
Outsourcing was inevitable because of currency demand for the dollar and a reserve currency. What could have been done is keep the most technical industries like semiconductors. Instead it was moved to an intermediate nation one more under control that still enjoyed the advantages of Asian manufacturing. In hindsight maintaining control of a nation on the other side of the world Taiwan seems unlikely.
There seems to be a lack of comprehension in the USA of the physicality of the world. If your nation derives its sustenance from imported goods and resources it must have something to trade. Use of the dollar is rapidly becoming a non tangible non asset.
War requires industry. The USA substituted higher, more expensive tech weaponry for mass production and it was effective. Since the USA had exported its higher technology also sophisticated war technology has become available to even very poor countries. Countries that retained their industries demonstrated innovation in sophisticated war technology. The one thing forbidden to export was technology related to nuclear weapons. There were attempts to limit technology such as thermal imaging. US companies would ship thermal images for manufacturing processes to China and China would promise not to look at their design and components. Just about every country has sophisticated thermal image capability for war targeting and surveillance now.
What’s better than war technology? War technology and a strong industrial and economic base.
Nuclear weapons require delivery. This requires a strong industry, if other nations are on par with technology. There will be losses. It’s not 1991.
The new alternative is biological weapons requiring no heavy industry just biotech.
WW3 is inevitable based on the discrepancy between where the industry and resources are located and non negotiable standards of living based on debt.
The great depression will look like a beach party in comparison. Foreign supply chains are obviously not going to continue in wartime for multiple reasons. The key to peace was every country having productivity and something to trade that is desirable.
Gunboat diplomacy is about to fail spectacularly leaving only weapons of mass destruction wielded by politicians with big egos not mindful of the suffering they will create.
I’m afraid you are right about this: “The key to peace was every country having productivity and something to trade that is desirable.”
Also this, “What’s better than war technology? War technology and a strong industrial and economic base.”
I agree that there is no way the US can re-industrialize. We don’t have the energy resources, or the people skilled at working with them. Workers have been off, chasing a green mirage.
you can only have war technology if it is underpinned by the availabity of surplus war energy
In other words, we need to actually “win” some of the time, and receive more resources as a result.
in a hunter gatherer soceity, the hunter must remain hungry most of the time, otherwise he wouldnt bother to hunt…
he wins , say 1 in 5 hunts–just guessing here–when he wins, he is rewarded with energy resources.
which lasts until he gets hungry again—not more than a week because food can go bad.
if he’s a very good hunter, females want him simply because he offers best chance of survival for their offspring….few women admit to that, but that is the basis for sex choices.
as he gets older he slows down and so less likely to win.
he might have fellow tribe members who give him food–ie, like me, a pension, but that can only last just so long.—especially if i refuse to die.
I am convinced that hunter gatherers ate a lot of root crops and other vegetables. Meat tended to be fish, since fish are easy to catch and don’t fight back. Genetically, we are related to primates, and they eat primarily plant material–only an occasional insect in addition.
Gail—I think shellfish was an important part of our diet—shellfish dont run away, and are highly nutritious.
(brain food)
A woman with children to feed can catch shelllfish and devise a tool to open them, (hence tool use)
this fits in with the idea that humans evolved as coast dwelling primates
I agree that shell fish were probably part of early diets. Coastlines would have been good place to live.
There were, and still are, all sorts of hunter-gatherer societies. Also, humans being diverse individuals, there were doubtless lots of ways of treating the old and the weak, and different old and weak people would also have been treated differently depending on how well liked or respected they were and whether they were considered valuable members of the community.
In some ways, hunter gatherers were and are more moral than modern post-industrials are. They lived or live in societies that mandated or mandate a lot of things that we have consigned to the individual choice bin. Perhaps their rules said, “take devoted care of the elderly until they die,” or perhaps they said, “now that you are old, take a walk into the forest/desert/tundra and relieve your kin of the burden of caring for you.”
There is a chapter of The Ascent of Man where Jacob Bronowski visits the nomadic Bakhtiari tribe in Iran and traces their way of life. In once scene, there is an old man who can no longer pull his weight, and the tribe need to ford a rather treacherous fast flowing river with their animals. So they leave the old man behind with his dog. Poignant stuff, certainly, and possibly embellished for the BBC audience?
Bronowski wrote and spoke:
It is not possible in the nomad life to make things that will not be needed for several weeks. They could not be carried. And in fact the Bakhtiari do not know how to make them. If they need metal pots, they barter them from settled peoples or from a caste of gipsy workers who specialise in metals. A nail, a stirrup, a toy, or a child’s bell is something that is traded from outside the tribe. The Bakhtiari life is too narrow to have time or skill for specialisation. There is no room for innovation, because there is not time, on the move, between evening and morning, coming and going all their lives, to develop a new device or a new thought – not even a new tune. The only habits that survive are the old habits. The only ambition of the son is to be like the father.
It is a life without features. Every night is the end of a day like the last, and every morning will be the beginning of a journey like the day before. When the day breaks, there is one question in everyone’s mind: Can the flock be got over the next high pass? One day on the journey, the highest pass of all must be crossed. This is the pass Zadeku, twelve thousand feet high on the Zagros, which the flock must somehow struggle through or skirt in its upper reaches. For the tribe must move on, the herdsman must find new pastures every day, because at these heights grazing is exhausted in a single day.
Every year the Bakhtiari cross six ranges of mountains on the outward journey (and cross them again to come back). They march through snow and the spring flood water. And in only one respect has their life advanced beyond that of ten thousand years ago. The nomads of that time had to travel on foot and carry their own packs. The Bakhtiari have pack-animals – horses, donkeys, mules – which have only been domesticated since that time. Nothing else in their lives is new. And nothing is memorable. Nomads have no memorials, even to the dead. (Where is Bakhtyar, where was Jacob buried?) The only mounds that they build are to mark the way at such places as the Pass of the Women, treacherous but easier for the animals than the high pass.
The spring migration of the Bakhtiari is a heroic adventure; and yet the Bakhtiari are not so much heroic as stoic. They are resigned because the adventure leads nowhere. The summer pastures themselves will only be a stopping place – unlike the children of Israel, for them there is no promised land. The head of the family has worked seven years, as Jacob did, to build a flock of fifty sheep and goats. He expects to lose ten of them in the migration if things go well. If they go badly, he may lose twenty out of that fifty. Those are the odds of the nomad life, year in and year out. And beyond that, at the end of the journey, there will still be nothing except an immense, traditional resignation.
Who knows, in any one year, whether the old when they have crossed the passes will be able to face the final test: the crossing of the Bazuft River? Three months of melt-water have swollen the river. The tribesmen, the women, the pack animals and the flocks are all exhausted. It will take a day to manhandle the flocks across the river. But this, here, now is the testing day. Today is the day on which the young become men, because the survival of the herd and the family depends on their strength. Crossing the Bazuft River is like crossing the Jordan; it is the baptism to manhood. For the young man, life for a moment comes alive now. And for the old – for the old, it dies.
What happens to the old when they cannot cross the last river? Nothing. They stay behind to die. Only the dog is puzzled to see a man abandoned. The man accepts the nomad custom; he has come to the end of his journey, and there is no place at the end.
I actually purposefully lived in the wild as a hunter gatherer for 18 months to test all these ideas, and I also sought out and studies every book and article written by English speaking authors who actually went and lived with hunter gatherer’s.
It is more accurate to think of hunter gatherers as forest farmers who plant, but don’t weed.
Your thesis is incorrect. Forest farmers kept about 1 year of food in storage, and food is very easy to dry and store.
The primary activity of forest farmers is filling their plentiful measure time. It is so easy to fulfill their caloric needs that they ‘work’ about 3 to 5 hours a week.
Steven Kayser
Interesting that you actually did it for 18 months—you have my admiration and respect
but
what did you take into the forest to start with?
And how many people were competing for your forest space?
Humankind appears to have started its evolutionary journey in those parts of the world when the sun did most of the work.
I doubt very much if an inuit could get by on 3 to 5 hours work a week.
What latitude did you conduct your self experiment in Steven?
“take devoted care of the elderly until they die,”
I’m all for that bit Tim.
I used to be on first name terms with my undertaker—now he’s died. (and 10 years younger than me)
So no chance of a discount there now.
Norman, you are well respected as the WOM (Wise Old Man) of OFW—at least while your principal detractors are AWOL.
By the way, one of my friends (a 67-year-old woman) called in yesterday for lunch and announced that her husband of 75 died before Christmas last year 3 days after getting a lung cancer diagnosis.
He also wasn’t a smoker or a drinker, either. And they live in a small town with little in the way of air pollution, and his career was owning and running a small chain of supermarkets. So not an obvious candidate for lung cancer.
“Turbo Cancer!” I thought. “The Jabs got him!” I thought. You can see how my thoughts pop up like methane bubbles from a warm swamp, cant’t you?
Well, it turns out that he wasn’t vaccinated for COVID-19 or anything else either in recent years. What could the contributory factors have been? The best I could come up with would be lifestyle. He loved sports—so much so that he could watch them all day. In a word, he was sedentary, and he also loved eating processed foods that contained lots of artificial additives, lots of salt, sugar, and trans fats.
Meanwhile, his wife—my friend, had four jabs before swearing off them and has had no symptomatic damage at all. She is much more careful with her diet than ever he was, and she gives highly aerobic keep fit classes three times a week. If I wanted to implicate the jabs in her husband’s cancer, I would have to resort to the shedding hypothesis. But I find that quite a stretch.
tim
i confess to eating too much crap food
but im not sedentary—other then when penning pithy comments to yourself
i also think a positive outlook on life is worth having—so i do.
a lucky lifetime of other activities counts for a lot too i thinkthough i was never picked for team sports—hopeless in that department
Not sure:
Agree fossil fuels have a short lifetime.
https://hondanews.com/en-US/releases/release-cb0091ae98fe7cec023630898409ff77-honda-to-debut
Make it self driving and very efficient. Musk has the manufacturing of cars down, batteries don’t seem to work well, H, may have a future.
Skilled workers are a problem, more so people to teach them. At my CC the two electronics teachers are in their sixties, taking everything as quickly as I can while they are there.
It is incredible what can be done with modern electronics, seriously looking at AI and Ni multisim. Expect AI and SolidWorks to be a good pair as well. 3D printing makes some biological constructions doable, nature is a very good engineer.
Since fossil fuels are leaving us, H is currently the only alternative.
Starship launches in a couple of weeks, hope for the best.
Dennis L.
I think, it might have been done for esoteric reasons.
This is a reply to Norman Pagett, but there was no ‘reply’ button under his response.
You are right that it did not take the Inuit 3 to 5 hours a week to get all of their material needs met. For them, it was two weeks a year, as documented by Farley Mowat in ‘The People of the Deer’.
They lived 100% on Caribou, and harvested their entire years supply during the migrations once a year. In those days, the herds were so large that they would run past various choke points, 60 a breast if I remember correctly, for two weeks straight, night and day, non-stop.
The whole tribe gathered and harvested animals using bows, dragged the carcasses out, skinned and dressed the animals, made all new clothes, and preserved the animals in piles that they covered with rocks and let freeze.
Two weeks a year equals 4% of their time. A week has 7 x 24 hours, or 168 hours. 5 hours equals approximately 3%.
I also found it stunning to learn this, that is actually why I did what I did, to see if it was real.
My experience came at 45 degrees. I have now moved to 49 degrees as the weather and food supply where I now am is Much better.
I took basic camping gear, a bow, etc with me. Where I live now, it is incredibly easy to gather enough Saskatoon berries in two days for an entire years worth of fruit, and it takes about four days to catch enough salmon for a years worth of protein.
Lions are NOT the king of the Jungle. Humans are. Sit back and consider how much better adapted we are to live in the wild and hunt deer than Cougars, Wolves, Coyote’s or Bear’s, the large dangerous predators in my area. A Couger has to kill a deer every week, while Coyote’s have to make a kill every four days. I can take one every two months and live like a king, and I have projectile weapons, and can plan WAY ahead.
Bear’s can’t store berries, I can.
TV shows like Survivor and Alone are completely out of touch with how one actually survives in the Wild. #1 rule, don’t be alone. #2 rule, make and take all the kit you need. #3. Harvest at least a year’s worth of each food when it is plentiful. #4. If there is no food where you are, MOVE to the food supply. etc etc.
Foragers live so below the carrying capacity of their land that there is no competition. The most shocking thing that I learned from my study of the literature is that most foraging cultures voluntarily gave up their lifestyle to acquire flashy jewelry type of things from the agriculturalists.
The idea that you can wander off into the wild with a knife and a loin cloth does not work. You need to plan a bit in advance, but with a bit of planning, its very easy.
Interesting! You have to choose the right area and plan ahead. You need to have a shelter to keep you from the cold and some warm clothing, particularly shoes. You have to have a way to pay property taxes, if any. You need a supply of fresh water. You need a way to keep it potable–perhaps boiling it.
I am doubly impressed Steven….but you are a rarity amongst humans. Few things at that level are ”easy” even if they come easy to you.
don’t know your age–that affects lifestle too.
if you dont have an income, then you cut yourself off from civilisation—good while your health lasts.
Doubtful if 1 in 10000 could survive on the 49th exclusively by their own exertions. I live at 52.
My ‘trade’ comes easy to me…i cant understand why everyone cant do it—but i can’t use it to kill food
Easy to say ”move to where the food is”
unfortunately most of the planet is property—the food on it belongs to someone else….and theres now 8 billion of us…they like to eat too.
the colder the latitude, the sparser the population—simple earth-economiics.
my inuit reference was more to living on the ice edge, but i confess to ignorance on the matter.
but i would suggest that a population supported exclusivly on caribou will be very self limiting by environmental circumstance.
inuit don’t build cities—that is my case in point.
you ‘live like a king’ but may i suggest only by your own definition.
on the 49th, i imagine you need a lot of heat in winter—which means taking it from your immediate surroundings.—if thats just you, fine.
But do try to consider that there may be others with the same needs
put 1m people in a forest in winter—the forest in gone by spring.
I’m guessing you’re somewhere near the US/Canada border north of Spokane from your description; interesting as I live at roughly the same latitude, but in Europe. Population density averaged over Canada is 4.4 people per km2; it’s about 30 times that where I am. Even here I find shedloads of free fruit to forage, and at a push there is no shortage of oaks to eat acorns from, but I’d much rather be in your location than mine if I were forced to try living as a hunter/gatherer. It’s very hard to find a spot here where I can’t see some sign of human habitation.
Interesting too what you say regarding foragers and jewelry. I can unfortunately easily believe that…Eddie used the term moreons which I find pretty accurate for neurotypical humans. It amazes me how most people spend most of their time pursuing ways to impress their fellow primate; I’m finally quite grateful for whatever psychological oddity I have that leaves me immune to giving a toss about social status, although it’s taken me a long time to reach that degree of self-acceptance.
Hunting deer; how did you preserve the meat? Smoke? Salt? Also curious how you protect the preserved meat from other hungry mouths.
I’ll respond to all three of the above here.
Gail: The Sacred Order of Survival, as it is called, is: Shelter, Water, Fire, and then Food. You need shelter for you – and- your food. I use 25 food safe five gallon pails with Gamma seal lids and then water proof bags inside the water proof pails, inside a bear proof food storage cache. I also have many 1 gallon food safe pails. You know why they date archeology sites via pottery? Food storage. Plastic pails are light and mouse/insect proof, but not bear proof. Bear’s can’t open them, but they will take them.
Inuit saying: Your Clothes Are Your House. (I was born and lived in the far north as a child) As for shoes, search on Lure of the North and get a winter moccasin kit. Once you have made one pair, all clothing is easy. Clay Hayes on Youtube can show you how to build Coyote Wells to purify water, and he also shows how to use grape vines to purify water.
If you are preparing for what I am preparing for, Fire is your friend, as a lure for the enemy. Gotta be careful otherwise.
Norman: You have to plan ahead and learn skills. The first animal I tried to skin and dress, well, I lost all of it. It was pitch dark and my light died and I still did not have it skinned. In the morning, the Coyotes had taken it all.
Here in Canada, it’s illegal to live in the Wild. But, in my opinion, they have already tried to kill us all, so….
As to 1M in the forest, as you said, not 1 in 10,000 will even try. I think far less than that have ‘planned ahead’ in any way that will work. Most are brainwashed by Canadian Prepper (Youtube) and other well intentioned but inexperienced prepper’s. Most well intentioned Youtube preppers are telling people to hunker down in a ‘homestead’ where the marauders are simply going to fire incendiary tear gas through your windows and burn you out.
Lurker: North and a bit East. The Pacific Northwest is the best area in the world for wild foraged food. That’s why I’m here.
Go as deep into the mountains and as high as you can. It becomes impossible for the Marauders to get a calorie profit when they are climbing up very far without an easy to identify, concentrated target of calories. You leave them all behind if you go up and deep. I thank the Creator regularly that my ancestors fled Europe generations ago. But even there, some will make it.
To All: If I were to rate the most important things to live a happy, joyful life in the Wild, say from 1 as the most important and 10 the least, everything above is a part of #9 and #10. 1 to 8 are ashtanga, the eightfold path of Yoga.
I was blessed with experiences as a child that lead me to develop a worldview where the earth is Alive and divine and has All of our best interest at heart. I am a real tree hugger, and despite talk of hunting, eat an almost vegan diet. I live basically on fruit, dried and fresh, and sprouted seeds.
You must be able to generate a feeling of ecstasy, Samadhi, and especially a deep trance via Pranayama, to enjoy the long winters and rainfalls. They also keep you very healthy, with the seed diet, and allow you to heal from hurt or disease. And we all pass, if you are lucky, you get to choose where.
really uplifting story Steven—I’d guessed Pacific NW
Welcome to OFW—you are the 1 in 10000 ++ who knows what hes talking about, from practical experience, ——would still be interested in your age though.
I just write about it—too old to do otherwise—impossible in uk anyway
Ive watched the Arctic preppers on TV—(ill just get my chainsaw)
one odd point though—if i may??
You obviously practice what you preach—so how do you maintain the facility to be online?
This sounds like a lot of planning and skills are needed.
Wildlife gets more and more sparse, as a person goes higher. The calorie profit tends to be lower, of going to these heights. I don’t think you could raise a family here.
Gail, thanks for the post, really always look forward to it!
Sorry it took me a while. I flew to Wisconsin for a few days for a high school reunion and to visit my sister living there, among other things.
There are so many cross currents it is difficult to sort through anything.
On one hand, Kevin Walsamey takes a macro view which highlights the predicament of the US, but he may have totally missed the elephant in the room of energy and overseas material sourcing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2blrhwLL4JU&t=88s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4K-fJ5lLWs
And yet I see counter arguments that things are not well in China either.
One thing for sure is that reindustrialization, like fighting wars, will be have to be radically realigned in the US before we start on our journey of damage control. We could jump from the frying pan into the fire if we try to reindustrialize on false or outdated foundations like green energy or over optimism in securing raw materials.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjTsOzQZBaM
The Marcellus shale was recently discovered to have vast amounts of Lithium for these LifPO4 batteries, but it has been contaminated with fracking waste water.
As the Chinese youth caught in this misery index, the best strategy may be to as despondent Chinese youth say is just to “lie flat”, meaning don’t waste time and energy applying for jobs, going to school, getting a house, trying to start a family, saving money etc.
I maintain the other option which is no easy task, is to return to the farm and homesteading, before big Agra corporations have taken over all of that too. But we are far removed from the farms. Not only is the homesteading life tough, but the learning curve is prohibitive and totally unrealistic.
And to think back 30 years ago, the problems of youth were simply having to be “cool or cast out.” From a cover of Rush’s song Subdivisions, this singer has an incredibly soothing voice. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-THekUZBs4
”The Marcellus shale was recently discovered to have vast amounts of Lithium for these LifPO4 batteries, but it has been contaminated with fracking waste water .”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/green-irony-massive-us-lithium-source-found-fracking-wastewater
BS in full swing . What next ? Gold . 😊
Unobtanium .
First video: We don’t have nearly enough engineers (and STEM graduates in general) in the US. Very large shares of those attending university programs in STEM fields are foreigners. Most of these young people head back home. The cost of hiring a STEM engineer is only 1/3 as high in China as here, because of cost of living difference. US manufacturers are turning to China to build their products that require engineering skill.
Second video: “China claims breakthrough in analog semiconductor chips: 3,000 times faster than Nvidia.” Much, much more energy efficient. Light and particles are used. Photon-based chips. Need better manufacturing capability.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1792435508347539848
Elon Musk talks BS about water salination using solar and the world is impressed just because he is Elon /
The devil is in the details of his argument. A lot of what is needed in not electricity. It is fossil fuel energy. Also, desalinated water without minerals added is of limited usage. Our bodies cannot drink this water without adverse effects. Even spreading it on our crops is iffy. Israel has been having health problems from trying to drink too much desalinated water.
”The devil is in the details of his argument ” . Exactly .
If Musk was to give this argument on OFW he would be mocked for his ignorance and booed off the stage . My post was to show just how ignorant the general public is .
Now the details .
” Musk, who is barely a programmer, doesn’t do rockets or electric cars, is ALSO an expert on water? Why don’t we have Gates instead? Oh well, at least he has the sense of any other normal guy about it.
His comments are common and have all the same common dead-fallacies every other moron has for the last 50 years. The problem isn’t ENERGY. All MATTER is made of energy. The whole universe is made of energy. The problem is to CONCENTRATE that energy, which is deeply, fundamentally diffuse. The state of solar power is equal to the heat-state of the end of the universe when nothing moves. Very pleasant, mild, and universal.
Okay, can you collect ANY amount of that solar power? About 10%? Okay, then stop with “Gigawatts”, you’re already at megawatts. How much does it “cost” (in energy terms) to “collect” that heat? More than the heat you collected? So marginal as to be wavering above zero? Okay, you installed and collected it. How long does it last? A year? 500 years? This is the problem with geothermal which is very obviously high-energy and very obviously free: the process itself destroys the machine, the drilling, pipes, etc, tears them utterly apart, molecule by molecule. Same as the sea, with tidal or wind. Might as well toss it in an acid bath on Venus. No I am not kidding, what is the life-span for extremely well-made, well-tended ships?
This is the problem with all machines on YouTube and elsewhere, “You can get 100x the power from this new tiny engine they never built!!!” (PS. “This is what — THEY – won’t tell you.” Who is “they” though?) No, dips—ts if you’d ask anyone they’d tell you: I CAN, caaaaaaaaaaaan, get 1,500hp from an 1.5l Acura engine. …For about 30 minutes. Then it blows the f—k up. Racers don’t care, they rebuild it for next week as long as the money’s flowing, but that’s the fact, Jack, it’s a money-energy LOSER, in the biggest possible way.
The other one is best demonstrated by the Stirling Engines, which are indeed real, workable, and superior. WHY don’t we use them? They don’t even claim “THEY” have been suppressing them. Sooper-secret UFO space alien Tesla technology. Why? Because they are always 30% larger, heavier, and more expensive than any comparative engine, steam or gas. That means they are always 30% more expensive AND larger, power-to-weight ratio. They need 30% more copper and Iron mines to be dug up with 30% more railroad cars to get it to you. Because: Math. Because reality exists.
Green energy has BOTH of these problems in the biggest possible way. IF ONLY solar gained 80%, not 20%. IF ONLY that power was 24h. IF ONLY those panels weren’t so anemic as to be impossible to high-voltage transmit distances. IF ONLY they weren’t so expensive. IF ONLY they weren’t so large. IF ONLY they weren’t so fragile. IF ONLY they didn’t wear out immediately and need the same constant maintenance of a regular power plant, only harder.
Yeah, IF ONLY each of those things didn’t steal 5% from your math, THEN we’d have 80% of your math. BUT THEY DO. And if a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his -ss on the ground. You can’t solve ANY of them, much less ALL Of them. Like all solar fields are being hail attacked, one by one, decades before their payback and end of life. Then all the giant earthmovers, 1,000 miles of copper wire, a shipyard of aluminum posts oxidizing in the rain, all useless. The entire 1,000 acres ruined FOREVER as topsoil and farmland, covered in broken glass and toxic rare earths.
Good plan. Now would you like to test it and see if I’m right BEFORE you plow $40 Trillion into it? Or would you like to destroy all topsoil, mis-use all ore, burn up that last gallon of diesel fuel before you say “Oopsie! I dropped a zero in this equation”? That’s what “MONEY” is supposed to do. Interest rates. Rate-of-REturn, proxy for EROI.
We already know. Musk knows too, but he’s a bulls—t artist, a technofuturist, that’s what he sells is hopium and bulls—t. Has anything turned a profit yet? Or is it all free money-printing in 0% interest rate bubbles .”
My 3000 watt array was cooking today! Batteries were full 9am. Switched to direct DC impedance matched hot water heating. Bathing tonight without propane. Yaaaah BAU bath tonight baby! Doctor lavander soap. It falls from the sky. All you have to do is pick it up like a magpie raiding the trash.
I exchanged emails with physicist Eric Chaisson several years ago. He was convinced that the world could not have a shortage of energy because so much solar energy falls on the surface of the earth.
People who make models make too many simplifying assumptions.
No wonder he has to write astronomy books to rip off students and round his meager salary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPt9hAC24MI
When Elon Musk talks, Elon Musk talks BS.
Has Klaus Schwab redigned?
https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/klaus-schwab-says-hes-stepping-down-as-world-economic-forum-head
Saludos
el mar
According to the article,
“Schwab has not named his successor, but said that over the last year, the group’s executive board, “under the leadership of President Børge Brende, has taken full executive responsibility.”
Brende is a former Norwegian conservative leader.”
Superb work as usual Gail. Thanks so very MUCH.
As a geriatric observer of this issue I have a couple of snippets for you.
When the nuke plants were first begun, Jane Fonda’s China Syndrome movie came out to scare the populace about nuke energy. At the same time there was a law suit filed against the uranium producers likely by OPEC? Do not know who financed Fonda’s movie, but suspicions for likely source are few.
The French being without any internal oil production and being quite smart built and ran now for many decades a lot of nuke plants. The U.S. navy put nuke plants on all the new submarines and many surface ships and there has never been an incident of note on those plants, thanks to the genius of Admiral Rickover.
The CO2 scam was started by al Gore who has made millions off selling the hoax, is now being used by governments and some NGO grifters like the U.N. to get gullible stupids to pay them money for the effort to do the impossible, CHANGE the weather!
Selling the HOAX to a gullible ignorant unthinking populace was quite easy.
“Men go mad in herds. They regain their sanity slowly one by one.” (If ever)
Book: Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. 1841
I have heard stories that the fossil fuel industry felt threatened by nuclear and set out to sabotage it.
On the other hand, easily mineable uranium is a limited resource. And building nuclear reactor (especially now that everyone is afraid of them) requires a huge amount of fossil fuels, and lots of either advanced collections from future buyers of that electricity, or lots of debt (or both).
Nuclear cannot be used in an environment where wholesale electricity rates frequently go negative. If wind and solar are given “priority,” and wholesale electricity prices are adjusted, these negative prices drive nuclear out.
“ , , , we have fifteen evidences times of mass extinction in the past 500 million years
1:02:48 so the implications of the carbon dioxide is really dangerous if you heat your
1:02:55 planet sufficiently. . . produces these H2S pulses . . . “ ?
Thanks for the video. Gail has mention Wards book Rare Earth many times here.
His book Under a Green Sky also correlates the role CO2 and other gasses play in CC.
Whatever the cause, the evidence we are seeing today leaves little doubt
Planted my rice on May 15 this year, as I’ve done every year since 1995. Will harvest on September 15 as every year. Planted potatoes at the end of March and will harvest at the end of June, same as every year.
If I planted the rise a month earlier, in this part of the world—northern Kyoto—there would be a good chance the seedlings would be frost damaged. If I planted the potatoes a month earlier, ditto. And if I planted the potatoes a month later, there’s a good chance the crop would go rotten in the monsoon.
In contrast, in Hokkaido, the potatoes and the rice are both planted later and potatoes are harvested in the autumn. Because Hokkaido has a different climate to Kyoto.
And I still can’t get lemons to fruit here although they do fine 60km to the south in Kyoto City and even better 80km south in Osaka and better still 150km south in Wakayama. And I can only grow banana plants but they die off every winter and so never produce mature fruit, and avocados if I keep them indoors in the winter. But I was assured 30 years ago by the experts that I would be able to grow all these things in Kyoto by now because Kyoto would have the climate of Okinawa and Okinawa would have the climate of Taiwan, and it absolutely hasn’t happened, and I am sick and tired of hearing the same old predictions that never come to pass and never ever ever get apologized for. I’m sick, sick, sick of it!
CC; Safe and effective
There is so much unsaid in this presentation. I’m too busy, and feeling too old, too tired, and too worn out to do a complete picking apart of what the implications may be.
But needless to say, during the Cambrian Period, which lasted from 542 million to 485.4 million years ago, some sources estimate that CO2 levels may have been about 20 times higher than today, and temperatures were hotter by 10 degrees Celsius. Temperatures and CO2 levels now are close to as low as they’ve been during the intervening eons.
Even if human activity is driving most of the current rise in CO2 levels, which is at least debatable, we are probably not going to have the opportunity to do much more than double CO2 levels before we lose the ability to burn fossil fuels in industrial quantities.
Also, even if human activity is not in the driving seat, what has happened fifteen times in the past 500 million years is bound to happen a sixteenth time within just a few tens of millions of years from now.
Lastly, with the ongoing process of lowering atmospheric CO2 levels by taking the carbon that goes into sea shells, etc., and mineralizing it into limestone, chalk, etc., on and below the seabed, atmospheric CO2 levels may fall too low to prevent the Earth entering into a permanent glacial period before too much longer—if the gas is really as magical a thermal blanket as Al Gore makes out.
While OFW was on holiday, I amused myself by arguing with one apparently very sincere believer in the flat Earth theory and two extremely stubborn pushers of the no virus theory. None of those three would consider, try to understand or try to rebut a single point I made, and I gave up on all of them in exasperation.
When I argue over science matters, I like to take into account the adversaries’ position and explain to them why I think it is wrong, and if I don’t know, I admit that I don’t know, and if I am holding a view without sufficient evidence or reason for holding it, I admit that too. But these people, they admitted nothing, they rebutted nothing, they had no interest in anything I had to say. They were simply regurgitating their dogma.
Sadly, I have also found the same behavior to be the case with climate alarmists and warmists generally, although there are rare exceptions. And also with so-called “greens” and “woke” folk generally. One might as well argue politics with one of Mao’s Little Red Book-carrying Red Guards. In any event, it can be a real struggle session.
Postkey, I believe you have been steadfast in pushing back against no virus propaganda by posting a link Dr. Fleming’s COVID-19 presentation several times on this site, for which I am grateful. Although I may be mixing you up with Rodster. Apologies if it wasn’t you and kudos if it was.
Tim
I take the points you make about different and unshakeable argument on various subjects.
Weve all run into that.
but tossing in references to conditions on earth 500 m years ago etc, isn’t even worth an eyeroll
Especially from a Renaissance individual that can judge so🙄
Well at least the people in the Renaissance knew how to draw, paint, sculpt, and write poetry that rhymed.
None of this action painting, four minutes of silence, coat hangers, and the bed I shared with my lovers post modern junk….
Meanwhile, in other developments, we have another Darwin Award. Don’t try this at home, kids
https://x.com/iCkEdMeL/status/1792686900345549106
But won’t be bothered to at least review
Peter Wards book before lashing out..
Sounds rather par for the course in these times.
🙄
Thanks Norman!
“but tossing in references to conditions on earth 500 m years ago etc, isn’t even worth an eyeroll”
Fair enough, but even 5 m years ago it was quite a bit warmer on planet Earth than it is today.
There has been a long term cooling trend for at least ten times that long, ever since the mammals took over from the reptiles as the top dogs. What’s been driving that? The oceans have been cooling from the bottom as the depths have filled with ice-cold meltwater from Antarctica for perhaps the past 230 million years, and this process has reached the point where bottom temperatures have dropped from almost 20 decrees C to about 4 degrees C all over the oceans—which are the Earth’s hot water bottle.
I contend that we will never get runaway heating on the land or in the atmosphere unless the oceans can be reheated first. It was warm oceans and probably a much thicker atmosphere that kept the world warm in dinosaur times and Carboniferous times, That’s my BIG TAKEAWAY POINT!!
We no longer have warm oceans—they’ve lost over 90% of the heat content they used to have. And, apparently, we no longer have a thick atmosphere capable of supporting flying pterodactyls. It seems to have been mineralized away by all the plants and the little shellfish and similar sea creatures.
The total amount of coal in the Earth’s crust is estimated to be around 1,000 billion metric tons. That is 1,000,000,000 tons. While limestone and chalk may make up around 8-10% of the total volume of the Earth’s crust, and—wait for it—around 70-90% of the limestone and chalk deposits on Earth were formed from the remains of marine organisms over geological timescales.
Counting on all my fingers and toes, that means the amount of limestone and chalk produced from the remains of living organisms over geological time is on the order of around 70-90 trillion metric tons. That is 70-90,000,000,000,000 tons.
AND THEY ARE STILL DOING IT!
For reference, over the past 250-300 years, cumulative global coal production is estimated to have reached very roughly 500 billion metric tons, which means we’ve burned half of the resource in that time. I find it a very sobering statistic that half of all the Earth’s original coal has been used up in 250 years, and most of that in the past few decades.
Given this physical limitation on resources, and the fact that the most easily and cheaply accessed coal would have been mined first, we can’t go on consuming coal at current rates for very much longer. And this also underscores that fact that there isn’t enough coal in the ground to allow us to potentially raise the atmospheric CO2 level to “global melting” levels by burning the stuff.
Do the math, do the physics, keep calm and carry on collapsing.
Right now Im writing stuff on the combination of limestone iron ore and coal to make iron.
(for my next book if it ever gets finished)
taken separately those 3 things are worthless—but blended into iron those objects then have value.
Why do iron objects have value?
Because iron objects can be used to access even more energy resources, and in the process of doing so—create wages.
We then use wages to start the same cycle over. Wages require energy conversion….without that conversion, …no wages.
But wages only retain buying power if that cycle is capable of being repeated—ad infinitum.
but to keep it going requires heat–and lots of it.
8bn people are now using/needing that heat, as opposed to none 5m years ago.–i think we found fire maybe 2m years ago.
Our current activities now produce an excess of CO2. This is well documented over 150 years.
the exact effects of that might be debatable, but its not looking good.—and its not a conspiracy.
but as you say, arguing with a confirmed flat earther is pointless.
Many of us could use a tutorial on the limestone, iron ore, and coal combination. Trying to use electricity alone “doesn’t cut it.”
“we are probably not going to have the opportunity to do much more than double CO2 levels before we lose the ability to burn fossil fuels in industrial quantities.”
‘It’s’ a ‘race’?
Between an increase in CO2 leading to a ‘mass extinction’ and ‘extinction’ by ‘peak oil’?
{“A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity. “?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
Good grief! “A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026.”
And someone thinks we could stop such a rapid change!
Looks like a trend line arching upwards..imagine that…how fluid that happen, I wonder?
welcome back Gail!
Thanks!
Another good article, thank you for raising these warnings.
Thanks!
Global recession ahead:
https://x.com/TOzgokmen/status/1792761280618447314
Global Main Street is entering a period in which they are incredibly starved of capital because of the following factors that cause a very uneven distribution of capital across the society/economy:
a) Financial markets are huge & US markets are 2/3rd of the total.
b) Within US markets, Mag5 claim much of the capital.
c) The nature of Mag5 is it does not use people; it is digital fluff. Meta’s labor cost is 1% of their revenues. One person’s income is not another spending. Mag5 sucks liquidity out of the real economy, as well as from other sectors within financial markets.
d) High rates mean that risk-averse rich keep their money in MMF. High rates also mean higher cost of refinancing, or no refinancing at all (bankruptcy). High rates also suck liquidity from the economy.
e) Gov spending goes into military, health care and a few boutique infrastructure spending with little economic impact (chips and wind/solar farms, otherwise called pork… bridge to nowhere). Gov pork displaces private sector.
f) Fiscal stimulus from 2020-helicopter hand outs is over; finished, dry. Already heavily indebted, consumers are defaulting. Defaults also suck money out of the economy & banking system. New monies are not created.
The result is total starvation of large swaths of the economy from money. Effectively, unless one is already rich & active in financial investments and/or benefiting from gov money flow, the future looks bleak now.
Conclusions:
1) Markets going up means that real economy is being starved of capital.
2) It could be that de-globalization & geopolitical polarization has accelerated flow of capital into US financial markets alone, starving all else from capital.
2) Authorities are like deer looking at head lights. Rise of financial markets cloud their minds & they cannot see the picture clearly.
3) Global recession ahead will be of galactic proportions, as no solution to this dire situation can be found easily and rapidly.
Saludos
el mar
Very interesting observations! Thank you for posting this.
Yes I see massive recession ahead then a reduction in oil extraction and exploration followed by low oil prices….then a spike in oil prices again at the worst time
wow I also see that coming down the road…
probably sometime in the 2030s.
Keep wishing but the cracks are starting to show… consumer spending way down. Wealthy people going to wal-mart??? Every time I go to wal – wart I’m worried about getting mugged in the parking lot. The recession/depression should have happened a long time ago. Biden is lying about the economy and dumping trillions of dollars into it to keep it alive.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense/id1506469669?i=1000656384918
This guy says the details much better than me on where the world economy is … the major new$$ outlets are lying
Also, the AI folks are essentially asking for ALL of the available capital to increase their AI training and inference compute. As Gail wrote above:
10. (a)…The feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels – without killing off a very major portion of the world’s population – seems to be virtually zero…
starvation of money isnt the problem
starvation of cheap energy is the problem
“…starvation of cheap energy is the problem…”
Agreed. the ONLY solution is obvious and being implemented. Search on Lt. Col. Thomas Witt and the document Peak Oil: Germany must act irrespective of traditional values. Look around, human population is now plunging, it’s obvious. It’s not a co-incidence that Tesla will have robot hands with 23 degrees of freedom in less than a year? The Power of this world has made it incredibly clear what the plan is…
robots can only function as an adjunct to human needs, feeding on human-sourced energy.
Robots require energy input
Taken to logical conclusion—robots in a world devoid of humans would have no point in existing all all—no function.
terminators —trust me—will not come into existence.
human population will no doubt take itseld out of existence.
that will not leave robots in charge.
it will enable the real dominant species to reassert the position it has always held until about 150 years ago.
…..microbial life
I think we spoke about this before. I still have not seen an argument against this.
1. Reduce population to, say 500 million, mostly engineers, with enough cognitive slaves.
2. Use the remaining fossil fuels to build out an infrastructure of solar panels with the durability of the ones Tesla builds up in Buffalo.
3. Create Robots to continue the build out, resource extraction, etc. For sure, the idea of Robots taking over is brainwashing. the problem isn’t the robots, it’s the programmers creating them….
To be clear, I believe the above is insane and will fail as Ra is going to blast earth with an ekpyrossis when the time comes. The meek will inherit the earth.
But the crazy technocrats clearly believe the above, in my opinion, and are well on their way to trying it….
I broadly agree that the crazy technocrats’ scheme is unlikely to work in the long term, but it’s something to do while waiting for the Sun to explode.
You know that old joke about politicians’ logic, from Yes Minister?
Something must be done.
This is something.
Therefore we must do it.
Steven
You have a great deal of prectical ”sense” in one context
but there seems to be a thread of divine belief in another
which i find odd.
and if world pop is reduced to 500m–we go back to the level og civilisation that existed around 1200 ce
This is a reply to both of your responses.
1. Age 59
2. How I have internet access. Rule # 1. Don’t be Alone. After my 18 months, I set out to find others who would brave the Wild, and live with a Woman I have high hopes for when TSHTF. We farm, organically and regeneratively, part time now, while full time prepping for….
3. Why do you find it odd that practical common sense and belief in the Divine are odd? I find THAT odd! Lol
4. Here is where it gets real strange. I am publishing a for real, mathematically rigorous Unified Field Theo/logy, and chose to hang out where I can publish online until…
Cheers,
steven
////Here is where it gets real strange. I am publishing a for real, mathematically rigorous Unified Field Theo/logy, and chose to hang out where I can publish online until…/////
the above seems to suggest some kind of mathematical proof of god’s existence—unless i misunderstood your words…”unified field theo–ology”–could mean almost anything i guess—-hence my comment about common sense practicality and a belief in the divine—the two do not seem to go together, especially as no one has proved divinity yet, as far as i know.
societies have relied on a divine intervention for millenia, using 000s of shades of god.
such belief has not proved to be of the slightest use in any circumstance, other than group comfort safety and reassurance in adversity—show me otherwise?
earlier you seemed to suggest that your group safety will be provided by mountains and forests–not a god.
i would be interested to know what your version of god is.
but perhaps you are a world class mathematician…i am certainly not.
I see creation as a continuing, ongoing activity. The ever-growing energy that allows “something from nothing” and a continuously expanding universe must come from somewhere. It looks to me as if there is a “God” behind what is happening. I agree with Steven Kayser.
Steven seemed to be offering mathematical proof on the god problem, which puts a whole new slant on it.
i cant wait to read it
This is my reply to Norman and Gail.
First off, Thank you Gail!
This is especially appreciated as Gail has already seen the beginning of Edge Theory.
Norman, you can read version 1.2 here: https://www.neptuneseven.com. Version 2 is much more powerful and will be out in about a week.
‘Proof’ is a funky concept, as my personal experience is that ‘Proof’ like Beauty, lies in the eye of the beholder. Many of our ‘greatest’ scientists today argue that the ‘Big Bang’ has been ‘proven,’ yet another of our ‘greatest’ scientists, Fred Hoyle, coined the term to ridicule the concept, and the results of the Webb telescope should end the idea entirely.
What I can say is that the full Edge theory provides an impossibly accurate mathematical model of our experienced Universe. It largely unifies the Standard Model, the works of Arp, Alvien, & Robitaille, the Electric Universe, the Plasma Life model, and yet, in the end, still requires a Creator to conduct it all.
As a follow up response to Gail’s earlier comment about going high and deep into the mountains, my meaning got confused there. I live at 830 meters (above sea level). We live at the end of a dirt road that is the highest up into the mountains that a road worthy vehicle can carry you. We have dirt bike, 4 wheeler, or snowmobile trails that go up from there. But, if I climb away from the gas burner trails about 200 to 300 meters up, I leave all Marauders behind, yet I remain in easy range of immense quantities of Saskatoon berries, Arrowleaf Balsom, dandelion, and other sproutable seeds, and many deer.
In 10 years of living in the mountains, I have not seen 1, not even 1, person even 100 meters up the mountain who did not use fossil fuels to get there, in part. Not 1 in 10 years.
(Just realized when rereading this that there was one episode. Last year two neighbours and myself climbed up to contain a forest fire that was sparked by lightning. When the helicopter arrived with BC’s finest to handle the blaze professionally, there were stunned into disbelief that three of us had hiked up. It was not that hard at all but they were in ‘disbelief’. that anyone would hike up just 200 meters to deal with an ignition that threatened our homesteads. We humans have fallen a long way.)
The decline in Fossil Fuels is both a Curse and a Blessing, to me.
“Global recession ahead will be of galactic proportions, as no solution to this dire situation can be found easily and rapidly.”
That won’t stop people from all walks of life from creating scapegoats.
People have consistently refrained from describing resource scarcity or competition and instead always frame it as a political problem: It’s Communism, It’s the Russians, it’s the immigrants, it’s atheists, it’s bible-thumpers, it’s the gays, it’s anything except the truth.