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Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers.
The United States started moving industry offshore in 1974 (Figure 1) in response to spiking oil prices in 1973-1974 (Figure 2).
Industry is based on the use of fossil fuels. Electricity also plays a role, but it is more like the icing on the cake than the basis of industrial production. Industry is polluting in many ways, so it was an “easy sell” to move industry offshore. But now the United States is realizing that it needs to re-industrialize. At the same time, we are being told about the need to transition the entire economy to electricity to prevent climate change.
In this post, I will try to explain the situation–how fossil fuel prices have spiked many times, including 1973-1974 (oil) and more recently (coal in 2022). I will also discuss the key role fossil fuels play. Because of the key role of fossil fuels, a reduction in per-capita fossil fuel consumption likely leads to a transition to fewer goods and services, on average, per person. A transition to all electricity does not seem to be feasible. Instead, we seem to be headed for increased geopolitical conflict and the possibility of a financial crash seems greater.
[1] When fossil fuel supplies become constrained, prices tend to spike to high levels, and then fall back again.
Economists and energy analysts have tended to assume that fossil fuel prices would rise to very high levels, allowing extraction of huge amounts of difficult-to-extract fossil fuels. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the past has shown forecasts of future oil production assuming that inflation-adjusted oil prices will rise to $300 per barrel.
Instead of rising to a very high level, fossil fuel prices tend to spike because there is a two-way contest between the price the consumers can afford and the price the sellers need to keep reinvesting in new fields to keep fossil fuel supplies increasing. Prices oscillate back and forth, with neither buyers nor sellers finding themselves very happy with the situation. The current price of the benchmark, Brent oil, is $81.
[2] Historical data shows spiking oil and coal prices.
When world oil prices started to spike in the 1973-1974 period, the US started to move its industrial production offshore (Figure 1). The very low inflation-adjusted prices that prevailed up until 1972 no longer held. Manufacturing costs climbed higher. Consumers wanted smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, and such cars were already being manufactured both in Europe and in Japan. Importing these cars made sense.
More recently, coal prices have begun to spike. Coal prices vary by location, but the general patterns are similar for the types of coal shown.
Before China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, coal prices tended to be below $50 per ton (figure 3). At that price, coal was a very inexpensive fuel for making steel and concrete, and for many other industrial uses.
After China joined the WTO, China’s coal consumption soared (Figure 4), allowing it to industrialize. Figure 3 shows that the extra demand initially pushed coal prices up a little. By 2022, coal prices had soared. At present, coal prices are part-way back down, perhaps partly because higher interest rates are dampening world demand for coal.
Natural gas prices also soared in 2022, at the same time as coal prices. Both coal and natural gas are fuels that are burned to produce electricity. When the coal supply is constrained, utilities will try to purchase more electricity produced by burning natural gas. However, it is difficult to store much natural gas for future use. Thus, a shortage of internationally traded coal can simultaneously lead to a shortage of internationally traded natural gas.
Having oil, coal, and natural gas prices spiking at the same time leads to inflation and to many unhappy citizens.
[3] The 1997 Kyoto Protocol encouraged the trend toward moving industry to lower-cost countries.
In Figure 1, I show a dotted line at 1997. At that time, an international treaty stating that the participating countries would limit their own CO2 emissions attracted a lot of attention. An easy way to limit CO2 emissions was by moving industry overseas. Even though the US did not sign the treaty until later, the treaty gave the US a reason to move industry overseas. We can see from Figure 1 that US industrialization, as measured by the energy per capita required to industrialize, began to fall even more rapidly after 1997.
[4] There were many reasons besides the Kyoto Protocol why Advanced Economies would want to move industry overseas.
There were many reasons to move industry overseas besides spiking oil prices and concern over CO2 levels. With such a change, customers in the US (and European countries making a similar change) gained access to lower-cost goods and services. With the money the customers could save, they were able to buy more discretionary goods and services, which helped to ramp up local economies.
Also, industry tends to be polluting. Smog tends to be problem if coal is burned, or if diesel with high sulfur content is burned. Mining tends to produce a lot of toxic waste. Moving this pollution offshore to poorer countries would solve the pollution problem without the high cost of attempting to capture this pollution and properly store it.
Furthermore, business-owners in the United States could sense the opportunity to grow to be truly international in size if they moved much of their industry overseas.
[5] All the globalization and moving of industry overseas had a downside: more wage and wealth disparity.
In a matter of a few years, the economy changed to provide fewer high-paying factory jobs in the United States. Increasingly, those without advanced education found it difficult to provide an adequate living for their families. The high incomes were disproportionately going to highly educated workers and the owners of capital goods (Figure 5).
[6] Part of what caused the growing wage and wealth disparities in Figure 5 was the growing industrialization of China (Figure 6).
China, with its growing industrialization, could outcompete whole industries, such as furniture-making and garment-making, leaving US workers to find lower-paid jobs in the service sector. Similar outcomes unfolded in the EU and Japan, as industrialization started moving to different parts of the world.
[7] The indirect impact of the Kyoto Protocol was to move CO2 emissions slightly away from the Advanced Nations. Overall, CO2 emissions rose.
Anyone who expected that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol would reduce world CO2 emissions would have been disappointed.
[8] The direct use of fossil fuels plays a far more important role in the economy than we have ever been taught.
Thanks to the direct use of fossil fuels, the world can have paved roads, bridges made of steel, and electricity transmission lines. It can have concrete. It can have pharmaceutical products, herbicides, and insecticides. Many of these benefits come from the chemical properties of fossil fuels. Electricity, by itself, could never provide these products since it has been stripped of the chemical benefits of fossil fuels. Electricity is also difficult to store.
With the benefit of fossil fuels, the world can also have high-quality steel, with precisely the composition desired by those making it. With only electricity, it is possible to use electric arc furnaces to recycle used steel, but such steel is limited both in quantity and quality. US production of steel amounts to 5% of world supply (primarily using electric arc furnaces), while China’s production (mostly using coal) amounts to 50% of world supply.
I highly recommend reading the article, Trapped in the Iron Age, by Kris De Decker. He explains that the world uses an enormous amount of steel, but most of it is hidden in places we can’t see. Today, with the US’s limited steel-making capability, the US needs to import most of its steel, including steel pipes from China to drill its oil wells. We cannot see how dependent we have become on other countries for our basic steel needs.
China and India have both based their recent growth primarily on rising coal consumption. This is what has kept world CO2 emissions high. The US is now exporting coal to these countries.
[9] Citizens of Advanced Economies are easily confused about the importance of fossil fuel use because they have never been taught about the subject and because their worldview is distorted by the narrow view they see from within their homes and offices.
Figure 8 shows that the sector with the highest share of electricity use is the commercial sector. This includes uses such as stores, offices, and hospitals. The most visible energy use is lighting and operating computers, which gives the perception that electricity is the greatest energy use. But these businesses also need to be heated, and heat is often produced by burning natural gas directly. Businesses also need back-up for their electrical systems. Such back-up is typically provided by diesel-powered generators.
Residential usage is similar. It is easy to see the use of electricity, but heat is generally needed during winter. This is often provided by natural gas or propane. Natural gas is also often used in hot water heaters, stoves, and clothes dryers. Occasionally, wood is used to heat homes; this would go into the non-electricity portion, as well.
The thing that most people do not realize is that industrial use and transportation use are extremely large sectors of the economy (Figure 9), and these sectors are very low consumers of electricity (Figure 8). Also, if the US and Europe were to re-industrialize to produce more of our manufactured goods, our industrial sectors would need to be much larger than they are today.
In recent years, electrical consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the industrial sector has averaged about 13% of the total (Figure 9). Industries typically need high heat levels; such heat can usually be achieved at lowest cost by burning fossil fuels directly. Wikipedia claims, “Electric arc steelmaking is only economical where there is plentiful, reliable electricity, with a well-developed electrical grid.” An electric grid, powered only by intermittent electricity from wind turbines and solar panels, would not qualify.
In Figure 8, electricity consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the US transportation sector rounds to 0%, for every year. Even the amount of biomass (ethanol and biodiesel) used by the transportation sector doesn’t have much of an impact, as shown in Figure 10.
A major issue is that transportation is a broad sector, including trucks, trains, planes, and boats, in addition to private passenger autos. Also, I expect that the only electricity that would be considered in the transportation energy calculation would be electricity purchased from an away-from-home charging facility. Electricity used when charging at home would likely be part of residential electricity consumption.
[9] The narrative saying that we can transition to an electricity-only economy, powered by intermittent wind and solar electricity, has major holes in it.
One major issue is that the pricing of wind and solar tends to drive out other electricity providers, particularly nuclear. Intermittent wind and solar are given “priority” when they are available. This leads to very low or negative prices for other electricity providers. Nuclear is particularly affected because it cannot ramp up and down, in response to prices that are far below its cost of production.
Nuclear is a far more stable source of electricity than either wind or solar, and it is also a low-carbon source. As a result, economies end up worse off, in terms of electricity supply per capita, and in stability of available supply, when wind and solar are added.
Another issue is that wind turbines and solar panels are made with fossil fuels and repaired using fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels, we cannot maintain electricity transmission lines and roads. Thus, wind turbines and solar panels are as much a part of the fossil fuel system as hydroelectric electricity and electricity made from coal or natural gas.
Also, as discussed above, only a small share of the economy is today operated using electricity. The IEA says that 20% of 2023 world energy supply comes from electricity. The amounts I calculated as “Overall” in Figure 8 indicate an electricity share of 18%, which is a bit less than the IEA is indicating for the world. Figure 8 shows an early upward trend in this ratio, but no upward trend since 2012. Fossil fuels are being used today because they have chemical characteristics that are needed or because they provide the energy services required in a less expensive manner than electricity.
Even in the early days of the Industrial Revolution, wind and waterpower provided only a small portion of the total energy supply. Coal provided the heat energy that both industry and residences needed, inexpensively. Wind and waterpower were not well adapted to providing heat energy when needed.
If we are short of inexpensive-to-extract fossil fuels, relative to today’s large population, we certainly could use some new inexpensive source of stable electricity supply. But this would not solve all our energy problems–we would still need a substantial amount of fossil fuel supplies to grow our food and keep our roads repaired. But if a new type of electricity production could reduce the demand for fossil fuels, it would make a larger quantity of fossil fuels available for other purposes.
[10] Practically everyone would like a happily-ever-after ending, so it is easy for politicians, educators, and the news media to put together overly optimistic versions of the future.
The narrative that CO2 is the world’s biggest enemy, so we need to move quickly away from fossil fuels, has received a great deal of publicity recently, but it is problematic from two different points of view:
(a) The feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels without killing off a very major portion of the world’s population seems to be virtually zero. The world economy is a dissipative structure in physics terms. It needs energy of the right kinds to “dissipate,” just as humans are dissipative structures and need food to dissipate (digest). Humans cannot live on lettuce alone, or practically any other foodstuff by itself. We need a “portfolio” of foods, adapted to our bodies’ needs. The economy is similar. It cannot operate only on electricity, any more than humans can live only on high-priced icing for cakes.
(b) The narrative about the importance of CO2 emissions with respect to climate change is quite possibly exaggerated. There are many other things that would seem to be at least as likely to cause short-term shifts in temperatures:
- Lack of global dimming caused by less coal dust and reduced sulfur compounds in the atmosphere; in other words, reducing smog tends to raise temperatures.
- Small changes in the Earth’s orbit
- Changes in solar activity
- Changes related to volcanic eruptions
- Changes related to shifts in the magnetic north and south poles
Politicians, educators, and the news media would all like a narrative that can explain the need for moving away from fossil fuels, rather than admit that “our easy to extract fossil fuel supply is running out.” The climate change narrative has been an easy approach to highlight, since clearly the climate is changing. It also provides the view that somehow we will be able to fix the problem if we take it seriously enough.
[11] Today, we are in a period of conflict among nations, indirectly related to not having access to enough fossil fuels for a world population of 8 billion. There is also a significant chance of financial collapse.
In my opinion, today’s world is a little like the “Roaring 20s” that came shortly before a major stock market crash in 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. After the Great Depression, the world entered World War II. There is huge wage and wealth disparity; energy supplies per capita are stretched.
Today, NATO and Russia are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine. Russia is a major fossil fuel producer; it would like to be paid more for the energy products it sells. Russia could perhaps get better prices by selling oil and other energy products to Asian customers instead of its current customer mix. At the same time, the US claims primary leadership (hegemony) in the world but, in fact, it needs to import many goods from overseas. It even needs supply lines from around the world for weapons being sent to Ukraine. The Ukraine conflict is not going well for the US.
I do not know how this will work out. I am hoping that there will not be a World War III, in the same way that there was a World War II. All countries are terribly dependent on each other, even though there are not enough fossil fuels to go around. Perhaps countries will try to sabotage one another, using modern techniques, such as cyber warfare.
I think that there is a substantial chance of a major financial collapse in the next few years. The level of debt is very high now. A major recession, with lots of collapsing debt, seems to be a strong possibility.
[12] A presentation I recently gave to a group of actuaries that touches on several of these issues, plus others.
My presentation can be found at this link: Beware: The Economy Is Beginning to Shrink
Day before yesterday Ukraine hit a Russian early warning radar. Today Ukraine hit a second early warning radar. Time for Russia to put the fear of death into the Americans.
That is really really really bad news.
I’ve never lived through a nuclear war.
I hope it doesn’t interrupt the supply lines for dark chocolate.
They cant put up with early radar being destroyed
They wont put up with early radar being destroyed.
This is madness.
They are going to have to light one off.
Madness
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/274384906/ukraine-attacked-nuclear-early-warning-system—moscow
No official statement from Russia.
Attacking early warning was listed as a possible cause for nuclear response in 2020
I can find only this incident not a second
https://www.twz.com/news-features/strike-on-russian-strategic-early-warning-radar-site-is-a-big-deal
Today I am feeling pessimistic. Here is what an intelligence source had to say to Judge Napolitano (starts at 11:16)
Today I listened to an extensive interview with an IDF ex-intelligence officer. His position was clear, we are, he said, aiming towards a world war. Israel therefore, shouldn’t stop itself from implementing some of the most radical measures because actions will be measured retroactively in the context of the brutal world conflict to come.
Good video. Discussion of what tactical nuclear weapon drills are.
It will be interesting to hear their take on the early earning strikes tomorrow.
I wouldn’t worry about the idf man. We’ve known this for some time.
What is being attacked, as Ed points out, is a concern, as the potential escalation could be huge, in a single step. Attacking OTH radar brings us to the point where Russia will now have to consider very carefully how this affects their nuclear deterrence.
Personal reading of the act tells me this
11. Nuclear deterrence is ensured continuously in peacetime, in periods of a direct threat of aggression and also in wartime, up until the actual use of nuclear weapons.
15. The principles of nuclear deterrence are as follows:
f) rationality of structure and composition of nuclear deterrence forces and means and their maintaining at the minimal level sufficient for implementing the tasks assigned;
g) maintaining permanent readiness of a designated fraction of nuclear deterrence forces and means for combat use.
19. The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation are as follows:
c) attack by adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions;
https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/international_safety/disarmament/1434131/?lang=en
I read about the woodpecker a couple of years ago and looking into a bit, there where rumours that it was calling again. Didn’t find much more so forgot about it, until I saw this.
https://x.com/Aryan_warlord/status/1751485576778547291
These attacks have not only opened the door for a huge Russian strike, they seem to be laying out the welcome mat as well.
Localised short-term global warming events will be on the rise in the weeks and months ahead.
I agree. But the reason why I am feeling pessimistic, is that now the USA also seems interested in a nuclear war.
This was always the case. They set this game in motion and as before, it was always going to be the little steps, that lead to the real goal, just like 14, 39 and multiple events before and since.
Watch the game unfold and keep an eye out for the fun bits.
“The Geneva International Peace Research Institute, GIPRI, urged the ICC Prosecutor to launch investigations against EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen for complicity in war crimes in occupied Palestine, including Gaza.”
If found guilty(after recent rulings, I wouldn’t put it past them), every country in Europe would be obligated to arrest her.
There’s a bit of hope as well. Oman, Bahrain and Pakistan are expanding ties with Iran and even Jordan has asked for improved relations(they can see what’s coming). MBS has also agreed to visit in a sign of strengthening ties and Russia has officially recognised the Taliban, whilst doing lots of work on the relationship with Azerbaijan(and the rest of the region). The Egyptian army have clashed with the illegal encampment, suffering 2 dead soldiers, so expect some movement there in the correct direction, helping to close off and suffocate the kiddy killers. To top it all off, China, Japan and South Korea have been holding talks. Is it any suprise that the west needs escalation.
You are in a decent place, so sit back and watch the triumphant failure do the only thing it knows.
https://youtu.be/bjyIuyFdc5Y?feature=shared
Motive and intent were already present.
The attack in particular two seperate attacks on early warning constitutes in some unknown degree opportunity.
It is that unknown degree by which all our lives hang by a thread.
I note the use of the term “radical measures” in the video. Only Ray had the courage to use the G word.
That’s power!
It’s like spousal abuse. The bruises are there. Fell down the steps again. Silent and dark. People look away. It effects everyone and everything around them.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-27/ukraine-claims-second-hit-on-russian-missile-early-warning-radar
https://defence-blog.com/suicide-drones-strike-another-russian-early-warning-radar/
The second strike Ed spoke of on Russias early warning systems.
Ukraine is claiming it allows them to use ATACMs better as justification.
Comments on reddit overwhelmingly support it with just an occasional wait a minute guys.
In the current environment it means Russia might launch on warning from a false threat. The installations look to the south. Tridents out of the red sea for instance. The first installation was specifically built after a close call with identifying a false threat. Ending their function does not end early warning but degrades its accuracy so launch on warning from mistakes becomes more probable..
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drone-targets-russian-early-warning-radar-record-distance-kyiv-source-2024-05-27/
Whoops
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drone-targets-russian-early-warning-radar-record-distance-kyiv-source-2024-05-27/
This is so stupid. If your early warning systems are taken out, it forces you to choose between a first strike of your own and being vulnerable to a first strike by the adversary. I guess USA is counting on Russia choosing to be vulnerable. However, no benefit accrues to the USA if USA does not actually perform the first strike, ergo Russia has to assume that’s what USA intends and must perform the first strike itself. This is playing with Armageddon.
I am afraid you are right. It is difficult for the US to come out ahead in this crazy US/Russian conflict.
Why do I think that was the idea of an Ivy League grad.?
Dennis L.
I ran across this video talking about the China housing market. Things seem to have gone from bad to worse, because of inflation in the price of necessities for Chinese people. More people are putting their homes on the market, but few are buying. The video is called, “Huge Losses! China’s Home Prices Drop 50%, No Buyers. 6M ㎡ of New Homes Unsold, Gov’t Fears Collapse.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkvLS4b3gok
I also found this one from Joe Blogs, called, “CHINA Nationalizing Real Estate as Property Collapse Deepens, Prices Crash & LGV’s to Buy Apartments.”
Deleveraging always comes with pain.
Those houses have no soul
Looks like fancy project housing
The Japanese empty houses have way more soul than those.
China will figure it out.
Just lots of pain.
All the old USA highrise projects that look like that are demoed now. The police wouldn’t go in any more. It was like judge dredd without judge dredd. Projects are townhouses now. Pretty nice actually.
I bet a bunch of you never even saw the old highrise projects.
You ain’t seen projects till you seen Mumbai projects.
This story similar, about highrise public housing in Melbourne Australia. The article implies, however, that renewal is a “friendly” PR spin for privatisation
aljazeera.com/features/2024/4/23/residents-question-plans-to-demolish-melbourne-public-housing-towers
to me it reads like a ponzi scheme
One thing I observed about the 2008 2009 crisis I observed was the banks got very good at moving non performing loans around on their balance sheets. That period of course is when the mark to market requirements were suspended first temporarily then permanently.
The western model for a perfect western bank is first and foremost treasury ownership. The face value of the bonds amount to money creating privileges with leveraged in the 20x to 40x range. That created money is all out in performing loans ideally. Very little cash. That’s the recipe.
The last thing a bank wants is to repo real estate and have it on the books. That’s basically like cash on the books. Neither cash or real assets get leverage when owned by the bank. If 100,000 was loaned on a home at 20x leverage if that house comes onto the books as a owned asset not a performing loan that 95,000 of leverage goes poof. So in 2008 2009 the banks got moving non performing loans around on their balance sheets. It worked! The bubble got reinflated! They turned the non performing loans back into performing loans. There was harmony in the universe once again.
Because of this repo of real estate is almost unheard of. My guess is the non performing commercial real estate loans are in the grey area of banks books. Ultimately repo is the ultimate mark to market. It values the real estate at what real wages and real earnings from businesses and local organic economies. It can represent radical deleveraging if the valuations were not representative of the organic economy.
China succumbed to the lure of synthetic standard of living. Now they face the dilemma. Deleverage with its deleterious and cascading effect on the synthetic standard of living or to resign themselves to trying to inflate a infinity bubble. The people need to be considered lest they get out the pitchforks.
Selling bonds is deleveraging.
Selling bonds is accepting the standard of living of the organic economy.
People wont be hapoy.
China of course has a great luxury. It actually has a organic economy. It actually has a choice.
You make good points.
I suppose the implosion of the Savings and Loan system in the US needs to be considered in this context, as well. Lots of real estate loans, when high interest rates of 1970s and 1980s started going away. Home prices rose, so there were few defaults on loans. But they did not have the options to move money around of banks. S&Ls needed to invest their interest earnings somewhere, but there was no deterrent to investing in the highest-risk opportunities possible, because the S&L insurance (of depositors) scheme protected the depositors very well. They indirectly were encouraged to shop around for the highest interest rate offerings, based on the riskiest investments.
I suppose that the S&Ls were also facing refinancing of many of the high interest rate loans for low interest rate loans. These were not as beneficial to the S&L system.
Another “shocking” development with Chinese EVs.
It is interesting how I seem to be getting two different outlooks on China. One from the China Observer the other from Inside China Business, both on You Tube.
So which direction is the news being spun?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7PubmPu-3I
This video is called, “China’s EVs Hit by Major Scandal! Multiple Models Show Electric Leaks, BYD Causes Brain Hemorrhage.” Apparently, it is possible to get electricity leak, either at the time of charging, or when the car is being used, leading to possible shocks for the driver or passenger. Someone claims to have gotten a brain hemorrage from the electric shock.
China Sells $48,900,000,000 in US Treasuries in One Quarter, Analyst Says ‘Clear Intention’ To Dump US Dollar Holdings on Display
By Henry Kanapi https://dailyhodl.com/2024/05/19/china-sells-48900000000-in-us-treasuries-in-one-quarter-as-former-imf-official-warns-the-worlds-two-largest-economies-are-heading-for-a-massive-new-trade-war/amp/
That’s a quarterly decrease of $48.90 billion.
The chief Asia foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Stephen Chiu, says a clear trend is underway.
“As China is selling both despite the fact that we are closer to a Fed rate-cut cycle, there should be a clear intention of diversifying away from US dollar holdings.”
The drop in China’s ownership of US bonds comes as former International Monetary Fund (IMF) deputy director Desmond Lachman warns that a fresh trade war between the two largest economies is brewing.
…According to Lachman, the increased import tariffs will likely prompt China to retaliate, leading to an escalation that would hurt both nations. Should a full-blown trade war materialize, Lachman warns that it will add inflationary pressure in the US as Chinese companies increase prices to cover the additional costs of entering the US market.
Looks like a repeat of History among nations….another Depression coming..
Right before my retirement..perfect timing…
I hope you already dedollarized and moved to Paraguay.
Will I have the same ending as Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid if I do?
That depends on how personable you are.
How come there is always a catch?
What you really mean is how much I can pay off the poor natives from killing me there.
One guy went there and married a local and mysteriously died…imagine that
pick your poison. Russia is not any better. there are good guys and crooks, just like in Paraguay. Newcomers with fewer relational skills do worse than others.
Russia isn’t any better? I’m not too sure of that judgement either…seems the momentum is swinging in their corner nowadays…
The creation of a new single currency within the framework of the association is what Russia and Iran are working on,” said Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali. He stated that more than half of all transactions between Russia and Iran are now settled in rubles and riyals. “More than 60% of bilateral trade is in rubles and rials,” Jalali said. The development indicates that Russia and Iran will switch to BRICS currency the moment it is launched in the markets.
Also Read: BRICS: IMF Confirms US Dollar Is in Jeopardy
However, a tentative date for the launch of the BRICS currency remains unknown. The alliance is currently deciding on the formation of the currency and the development is a work in progress. The 16th summit in October could decide the fate of the BRICS currency as all members will provide their insights.
Think the US bit off more than what it could chew with bother China and Russia
To be precise Mike. Russia is in fact better, with the economy doing real well, a well prepared society and all the things that make westerners attracted to Russia. I am taking advantage of that. But crooks and difficult initial experiences are here, too.
This seems to be one way “not enough to go around” takes place. Selling off of US bonds by China, and a renewed trade war.
Essentially if I understand it, no liquidity, nothing to trade in the immediate future for what is needed currently.
It is very challenging to match maturities of assets and liabilities, even insurance companies are finding it challenging I have been told. Their solution, raise necessary premiums, increase cash flow from said premiums to cover current cash shortage from assets declining in market value.
Dennis L.
Man Belgium is sure going to have lot of treasuries. Strange they are buying them at face value at much lower than current interest rates. I’m sure they know what they are doing. Only 700B to go China. That will be 135% of Belgium GDP in total. With the 100% they purchased last time 235% of GDP. Belgium is going to corner the treasury market!
In response to a post where I did a back of the envelope calculation of $80B or so avoided costs to Musk by using solar electric to power “cell towers” in space, someone inquired about the phones themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87ZthES9Rsc&t=909s
At 15:11 House links/shows a video call completed via Direct to Cell satellites.
Back to Pt, money from solar to explore the solar system for Pt. This is not unlike a story of a little girl and a pile of poop. She loved ponies, you can do your own research. Oh, I will give it to you, Copilot of course. I recalled it as a little girl, this story refers to a little boy, same idea.
“here were twin children, one an extreme pessimist, the other an extreme optimist. Concerned about the kids’ extreme personalities, their parents took them to a psychiatrist for evaluation2.
First, the psychiatrist treated the pessimist. To brighten his outlook, the psychiatrist took him to a room filled with brand-new toys. But instead of being delighted, the little boy burst into tears. When asked why, he responded, “If I play with them, I’ll only break them.”2
Next, the psychiatrist treated the optimist. To dampen his outlook, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with horse manure. But instead of showing disgust, the optimist climbed to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. When asked what he was doing, the little boy replied, beaming, “With all this manure, there must be a pony in here somewhere!”
It is a very large solar system compared to our spaceship earth, there is Pt in them there spaces somewhere.
Dennis L.
The world is physical. Attitude only goes so far. Which I know you know working with physical disciplines. I think you enjoy yanking chains. Plenty of chains to yank here. No foul no harm done. I’ll take you over K any day.you are polite and humble. That’s worth a lot. Maybe I could take a lesson.
Like the Genie in the Aladdin story, the Copilot tells the story you want to hear.
Studies done to the survivors of WW2 camps show that realists, knowing where they were at, had a greater chance of survival than the optimist.
Life is Beautiful by Roberto Benigni is just a story, made by someone who was not there.
Cervantes, who lost the ability to use an arm during the Battle of Lepanto, wrote Don Quixote to warn people who were optimists, and Voltaire wrote Candide to ridicule such people as well.
OF course you think that your God is the only talented person on earth, but these people’s works have survived to this day because they had merit.
Thanks for your optimist/pessimist story!
Hi Dennis, Could you do me a favor and ask Copilot who attacked the USS Liberty and report back here? Thanks.
I must be optimist because all I see is manure. From here to the sea.
I’m the worlds biggest optimist!
Laughing quietly, nice one.
Dennis L.
In response to Hideaway and my “belief.”
I respect the general conclusion here that the old is coming to an end within perhaps a human lifetime.
The universe is 27+ billion years old and our solar system is “only” 4.567 billion years old. One could argue it took over 22 billion years of universal development simply to make it possible for our solar system to be. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Earth
Counter example to evolution: Take the parts of a mouse trap, not assembled, place them in a bag with no determination and shake said bag. Will a mousetrap ever be made? My bet is no.
Assume the universe was made deterministically, an assistant comes up to the maker and says, “Ah, they are running out of oil, pollution is a problem, we have an issue.” The wise old man looks to his assistant and says, ” Didn’t we leave a cubic mile of Pt somewhere in that system when we were making it?” “Go down there and give them a nudge in the right direction. ”
Adding a bit of humor, the old man then turns to his assistant and complains of the difficulty being had with assembling a different universe, the multiverse theory.
Human beings seem highly improbable, yet we are here; we are better at being human today than we were a thousand years ago. Even our religions are better, we do not directly sacrifice humans on an alter while cutting out their heart.
If you do not like this story, please advise one which explains what was before “the big bang.” If you like chose something simpler like a ribosome and think of a bag of amino acids being shaken. Those are tough stories to envision. Pt is a relatively easy project.
Dennis L.
“Even our religions are better, we do not directly sacrifice humans on an alter while cutting out their heart.”
Yes, now we wait, let them grow and then drone them as they are getting married, or bomb all infrastructure including hospitals and water supplies, then target all the gathered children. We gleefully destroy whole nations that are no threat and revel in death. Please explain how you consider this not directly sacrificing, or perversely, better?
All you’ve done is moved the murder to a distance you appear to be quiet comfortable with. Your god looks very much like the personification of evil to the rest of the world.
If you struggle to understand the above, please look up what happened to the young child named Hind and understand what is really done in your name. Here’s a small introduction to the horrors that you bizarrely think of as better.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/search-for-hind-comes-to-tragic-end–found-dead-amid-pile-of
Here’s the voice(with subtitles) of fear that your wonderful religions delight in bringing upon the world.
https://english.almayadeen.net/videos/the-story-of-hind-rajab
Do look into it Dennis, so you understand without question that this was very deliberately dragged out, to induce the utmost fear, before the sacrifice of a six year old girl. Is it better because she’s not white?
They are lowering the number of Palestinians in Gaza, who don’t understand this is simply dumb.
The international community, expecially on the Western side, allows this.
The others more or less act like this:
Arabs fear a reaction by Israel and US if they oppose, Russians have many Jews and also take the opportunity in the meantime to finish their work in Ukraine, Chinese don’t have Jews, but take the opportunity in the meantime to manage better the situation with Taiwan.
Iranians and Houties can do little.
South Africa tried to open a case on the international Court, but nobody gives a damn about it.
The result is to watch the massacre ‘live’ on tv and hear that who critics is anti-Semitic..
But people are so dumb that ignore or prefer to ignore that Palestinians are Semitic too (!)
😀
🙁
My guess:
Underlying all human endeavors is biology which is amoral.
From Copilot on chimpanzees:
” One of the most well-documented instances of this is the Gombe Chimpanzee War12.
This conflict occurred in the Gombe Stream National Park in Tanzania between 1974 and 19781. The two groups involved were once unified in the Kasakela community. However, over a span of eight months, a large party of chimpanzees separated themselves into the southern area of Kasakela and formed the Kahama community12.
During the four-year conflict, all males of the Kahama community were killed, effectively disbanding the community12. The victorious Kasakela then expanded into further territory but were later repelled by two other communities of chimpanzees1.
Other studies have also found evidence of chimpanzees carrying out violent attacks on individuals from rival groups in order to secure more resources or mates3. These findings support the idea that chimpanzees kill members of other tribes for their own ecological reasons4.”
More from Copilot, Gane Goodall and her disillusionment that what she observed was not what she wished.
“Goodall also observed instances of cannibalism among the Gombe chimpanzees, where mother and daughter Passion and Pom stole and killed babies in their own community1. These observations challenged the previously held belief that chimpanzees were exclusively peaceful and harmonious creatures.”
We live in a universe which we did not make, which we cannot change, we must accept and find ways to mitigate the pain for all where possible.
Dennis L.
We don’t know how things will turn out. There have been miracles before. There may be things going on today that we don’t recognize are miracle, but really are.
Dennis you have no understanding of geology and how ore bodies are formed. The rocks they found on Mars are the same as here on Earth. We don’t have any cubic miles of any minerals, even after billions of years of many processes happening here on Earth to concentrate orebodies.
In space there hasn’t been these processes working, so the minerals are by definition likely to be much more dilute than here on earth. The exception being if there is an iron-nickel component that was the centre of a forming planet that was destroyed. But even this wont give us the copper and platinum needed.
As far as fairytales go, believing in solar and wind that will last thousands of years with batteries that never degrade is a more realistic one. However it’s that nuisance called the laws of physics that tell us this is also unrealistic…
“Dennis you have no understanding of geology and how ore bodies are formed.”
I agree with you, maybe nothing but a nice story. I also agree with the basic tenants of this site, NRR are running out, we are in trouble.
We only need one “rock” it is a big solar system.
Might as well look somewhere, it would not be the first time that “science” has had to advance and add to the knowledge of mankind.
Looked at solar panel waste,
https://www.epa.gov/hw/end-life-solar-panels-regulations-and-management
End of life for large solar farms would seem to be a problem. I passed on some nice rents offered on my farm for a solar farm, was concerned what happened when the farm was “worn” out.
Starship to the rescue? Launch the stuff into space, Jupiter?
Dennis L.
Where are the materials going to come from the build space ships to mine the solar system if we’re having trouble cobbling up enough materials to make enough solar panels to replace fossil fuels. Space mining is a non-starter because we would run out materials to build the craft and as Hideaway said they may be less concentrated and less economical to exploit.
Excerpt from an article ( behind paywall) by Dimitry Orlov . Stealing Russia’s billions
” At the end of April the US House of Representatives passed legislation that, if enacted, would allow Biden (or whoever else gets to warm his seat next) to confiscate frozen Russian state assets and give them to the Kiev régime. There are roughly $7–8 billion of such assets, which is hardly enough to buy each of Zelensky’s numerous henchmen a sea-view condo in Miami, but confiscating them would set a very bad precedent. Previously, the only times state assets of another state could be confiscated was in cases of capitulation by that state as a result of it losing a war. But the US and the rest of NATO strenuously deny that they are at war with Russia (a proxy war using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder—perhaps—that word “proxy” spelling out the difference between life and death for the West).
While the $7–8 billion is not that much and can be written off as a bit of Russian charity for the sake of increasingly broke Americans (the US runs a trade deficit with Russia of around $10 billion a year, which is also a sort of charity), the signal that this bit of legislation has sent to the European Union is that its overseas masters and commanders would like it to follow suit. And it just so happens that Euroclear, headquartered in Belgium, is in possession of some $300 billion of frozen Russian assets and absconding with such a princely sum would surely be perceived in Moscow as akin to a declaration of war—which is something that usually ends badly for the Europeans: Russian cavalry in Paris, Russian tanks in Berlin… and who knows what those Russians will come up with this time.
The worst part of it is, if the Europeans steal this money and give it to Zelensky’s merry band of thieves, the Russians won’t have to do a thing. Russia doesn’t actually need this money—at least not any time soon—having, at present, negligible foreign debt and an economy that is growing nicely—but the EU certainly does. Most of this money is in the form of Eurobonds; that is, Russia has invested their money in the European economy where it is keeping businesses open and people employed. Selling this bonds to raise cash for the Ukrainians in a fire sale would be disastrous for Europe’s already shaky finances, pushing up interest rates, inflation, bankruptcy rates and unemployment.
Next to squeal loudly was the International Monetary Fund. It is a tool the West uses to take unfair advantage of competitor nations in the Global South, relying on the fact that 55% of the votes within it are controlled by the US, the UK, the EU and Japan, who vote as a block. The IMF controls national central banks in two ways: by setting up certain rules that favor the West, and by issuing credit with certain strings attached, such as austerity programs that cause the world-famous “IMF riots.” But if central banks around the world, upon seeing Russian sovereign wealth stolen with impunity, start balking at placing their own sovereign wealth with Western financial institutions, the IMF will lose the ability to dictate terms to the rest of the world, putting an end to five centuries of global financial control exercised by Western banking interests.
Creating bonds synthetically
Marking them to zero for the purchasers
Taking them from the purchaser without compensation
Does not make them a desirable store of wealth.
These morons are pulling pickup sticks out of the dome.
Trust is very difficult to gain, it is very easy to destroy. Europe is destroying trust in itself. One could even imagine some members of the European Union wondering if their funds might be redirected and made not available.
Dennis L.
Thanks for the quote from Dmitry Orlov. He often has good insights, especially when it comes to things involving Russia. He makes good point at the end:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/25/science/race-clean-up-heavy-industry-heats-up/
Electrically conductive bricks can turn electricity to the high temps needed for, for example, steel production. One of the often-cited (on this board) problems with electricity is that it doesn’t produce the high temps needed for some processes. Now it can.
Steel from solar energy? Sounds like a good idea, maybe even carbon in space and we already know Fe is not a problem.
From rusted refrigerators and old cars to steel via electricity from solar. Add a pinch of Pt and we have non interruptible steel production from solar.
They will think of something.
Dennis L.
Perhaps there is a way of getting to high enough temperatures. I am sure that the temperatures need to stay high enough for a while, so there are a lot of details to attend to–batteries for when the sun goes behind the cloud, for example.
This is another version of the same story:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20052024/mit-electrified-thermal-solutions-decarbonize-heavy-industry/
The Race to Decarbonize Heavy Industry Heats Up
Backed by federal funding, MIT spinoff Electrified Thermal Solutions says its electrically conductive bricks can replace fossil fuels.
When things get desperate, some people begin to develop irrational beliefs.
They believed in messiahs, mahdis, maitreyas, and all myriad of would-be saviors who would lift them from their miseries.
The German leaders and some engineers began to believe in the Wunderwaffe in 1944, which would save the situation . Some people still talk about it to this day.
All these space energy, space mining and space whatever schemes are little more than such irrational beliefs which is like mental masturbation. The Christopher Nolan movie Interstellar is a classic example of such thought – it is quite unlikely for a conciliation which has deteriorated that far to launch a spacefaring craft. It would be like a one shot affair, one hail mary pass which usually fails.
People who believe in such stories have no concept of history, sociology or human psychology. They are indeed true believers, willing to believe any imagined reality which fits their narratives , whether they have currency or not.
Do we have anything left, but a technological Hail Mary?
I mean, it might as well be pedal to the metal, and perhaps something surprising might be discovered somehow. We seem to be getting better at iteratively aligning complementary processes, and then testing outcomes… virtually.
Elsewhere I have suggested restricting consumption by the bottom 99% of the world, and mobilizing all available resources for the future projects.
kul,
My simple guess: biology is not “written” that way.
Cortez only had about 600 men, he made arrangements with the tribes surrounding the Aztecs who had been subjects of sacrifice and subsequent cannibalization. The Aztecs were totally destroyed, their civilization ended.
Biology bats last, it seems to adjust the extremes. Were one to continue my theme, the master of the universe is told by his assistant one group is not doing well by some others, biology is threatened, the assistant is sent “down” and things are adjusted.
In recent human history, Mao, Hitler and Stalin were adjusted, their civilizations changed almost by magic. In the latest evolution to some it would appear Putin brought back the Orthodox Catholic Church from the petty tyrant who called religion the opiate of the masses.
We need ways to accept and tolerate nature, it is not a smooth process and at times it seems to be very messy.
Dennis L.
Reality is not a baseball game.
According to your logic, it is time to ‘adjust’ English speaking civilizations, now they are doing all extreme things.
“Why the yen will remain weak despite massive intervention, and what is behind the BoJ’s weak yen policy”?
https://rwerner.substack.com/p/yen-collapse-how-the-japanese-central
“EV FireSafe, funded by Australia’s Department of Defence, has managed to verify fewer than 500 electric car battery fires. Ever. Out of 20m EVs worldwide. That’s 80-odd times rarer than an ICE car fire. If it were a frequent risk, it’d be reflected in insurance premiums. It isn’t.”?
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/mythbusting-evs/mythbusting-world-evs-are-electric-cars-susceptible-catching-fire
I don’t know. I do know that the battery fires are awfully difficult to put out. They seem to happen without crashes. They have sunk whole boatloads of cars being shipped internationally.
Airlines are very concerned about lithium batteries that a person has in their luggage. Are these any better.
EV insurance rates are very high, for some reason.
I respect you greatly and if you say EV rates are high secondary to fire from batteries, well, your data is better than mine.
Electric cars are very complex and very diffuse in that many of the parts are spread over the car. Cooling/heating are an example, the car has to heat/cool the passengers as well as the batteries which results in complex cooling channels which are very difficult to repair to a leak proof condition after a crash. This is my conclusion, it is not based on fact, but by reading and looking at the Leaf which has only minimal temp regulation of the batteries.
I assemble my own computers, workstation level, were a computer to suffer a relatively small blow, fixing it would be incredibly difficult given the multilayer circuit boards and very small parts. Additionally, parts purchased at the same time work better together than those of different vintages. Some BIOS software just does not work with operating software updates no matter how hard one tries. EV’s are rolling computers.
Human beings are no different. Interventions are never as good as solid engineering from the start, i.e. choose your parents wisely.
Dennis L.
“s. Some BIOS software just does not work with operating software updates no matter how hard one tries. ”
ALL software is designed to work with only certain hardware. This wouldn’t be a problem except for the constant need for speed. Instead of getting things right the first time, everything produced as quickly as possible and then developers work on functionality. The result is lots of slightly different versions of software and hardware that, again , can only work within narrow parameters.
Not being able to use a ev/smartcar because the software can’t be updated anymore is going to be a deal-breaker with people old enough to remember what is was like to be able to own and maintain one vehicle for decades. The cost of car ownership will go up. The high cost of car ownership will be normal to people born after 2020 because they will have no clue what car ownership was like in the past..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIXTP-TgPEw
Prof. PAUL CHRISTENSEN Electric Vehicle Battery Fires
You really need to listen to this fellow. It’s 30 minutes, and will help make sense of things. I wont give away the major point which addresses most people’s misconceptions.
It’s the fact that these vehicle fires are so huge and cannot be controlled. They take out whole buildings and whole ships. No one will want one of these vehicles in a garage with many other vehicles, for fear that the whole building will be lost. Fire firefighters don’t want to go in to enclosed spaces where these fires are burning, for fear of putting their own lives at risk. There is no fire extinguisher for lithium battery fires that is approved by an independent organization–water is the best of the bad options.
One thing that strikes me is that it is big events (a vehicle fire that causes damage to much besides that vehicle, for example) that drive reinsurers into raising rates for everyone, because their limits are over an aggregate deductible.
Java, what is the misconception?After listening to this informative video, I now know how truly dangerous these battery systems are. My misconception was that they just caught fire. No….they explode, they have rocket flame emissions, they have lighter than air vapor clouds, then they also have heavier than air vapor clouds. No misconception. I will never own an EV with these types of Lithium batteries.
I have LFP batteries with my battery backup system installed at the end of my house. These batteries have higher flammability point for thermal runaway and so are much safer. However, after watching this video, I wish I has put my system in the garage across the wall. My BADDD.
Thanks, insightful was not aware of those issues.
Dennis L.
China is in no position to fight a nuclear war against the US. China has only 600 (maybe 1200) nukes. It would need 6000 and good delivery systems for them like stealthy submarines that can lay in wait 400 miles off the US east and west coast. As nears as I can tell China has zero stealthy ICBM carrying subs. China needs at least 10 years of development and building.
Russia has enough nukes and delivery vehicles to fight the US but as the computer says in the movie War Games “interesting the only winning move is not to play”.
The US would love to see Europe and Russia destroy each other with nukes. Will Russia find a way out of the trap? We will have to wait until the end of next year to find out.
Iran feels it “needs” to respond to the murder of its president by Israel but Iran has no nukes and Israel has ? 400.
The Arab nation run by dictators have the powerless with a strong desire for justice for the genocide of the 2.2 million Palestinians that will trickle in over the next five years. The fat, dumb and happy dictators want not to be killed by CIA/Mossad.
My bet the most likely move is the US tries a decapitation strike against China. Best case only 30 Chinese nukes get through and only 30 million Americans are killed quick and another 30 million slow from cancers over 30 years. A “clear victory” for the neocons in their Swiss, South American, NZ and Hawaiian retreats. China will no longer consume fossil fuels. North Korea and Iran will be back to the stone age. Maybe a few hits on South Africa for their ICC trouble making. A few neutron bombs on Cuba to open the beaches for Trumps son in law to develop.
What stops the other 570? The Patriot system?
Good question. I sure dont know. The DEW weapons have some capabilities. It requires massive power. Energy is shot up to form a lense that has to focus in the target then more energy is shot up to destroy the target.
Any way you look at it intercepting 600 ICBMs coming down at mach 20 or so in the final phase is a difficult task.
If the reports are true none of the Iranian balistic missiles were intercepted on the attack on Israel. That air space was much better defended than the USAs in my opinion with best the USA has to offer.
Much much better to intercept in launch phase. Chinas nuclear missile fields are far to the west out in the desert out of range of submarine launched tomahawks.
Intercepting in mid flight is the only option which is what AEGIS is supposed to.do and specifically why deterrents like autonomous nuclear torpedoes and low flying nuclear weapons not on a balistic path are impossible to intercept where developed by Russia.
An ICBM is like skeet. Your not going to hit the clay straight out of the launcher. If you let it get too far it’s gone. You have to hit it in the middle.
Israel had to try to intercept the Iranian missiles in the final stage. That doesn’t work. Chinese or north Korean missiles would have to be intercepted by aegis over the pacific.
The USA could of course try a decapitation strike on the Chinese missile fields with its trident missiles launched out of submarines depleting that rather precious asset in deterring Russia. Which of course is where AUKUS comes in.
All of this assumes Russia stays on the sidelines which they won’t. Europe will get pasted with Russia’s short and intermediate missiles. The gen 4 islanders just to start.
Europe is the big loser in WW3 because of the amount of short and intermediate range delivery systems. European leaders seem to have a renewed energy for NATO with two new members. Tallyho!
The main deterrent for Russia is the tridents out of subs.. Russia is gonna get pasted too even with their air defense. IMO there will be success and failure to intercept on both sides.
A nuclear ICBM has physicality. No amount of hopium will stop it. Knocking down 600 ICBMS. IMO a lot are going to get through.
The way I see it Russia has been fully prepared to fight a nuclear war against NATO and USA targets where everything gets blown to hell with China staying out. They just got 600 ICMBs added to the equation in their favor.
Nuclear war is calling artillery in on your own position. There are no winners but you can make everyone lose.
Which is why genetically tailored biological weapons with plausible deniability are so attractive. IMO nuclear weapons much like the aircraft carrier is old conflict technology no longer relevant
USA is simply not going to be able to keep up in the nuclear arms race with the outsourcing of its heavy industry. F35s are not going to cut it even if they work as advertised They only carry one nuclear weapon and are expensive.
So if you think there is a thirty year future what do you think the nuclear deterrent equation will look like. In 10 years China Will have 1000 ICBMS not 600 probably with improvements from Russia missile technology. What if Russia has China start knocking out 10 subs a year instead of Russia’s one? Not cutting edge say kilo class. A kilo class sub is a very capable craft cutting edge in time. How many subs can AUKUS manufacture?
The big question are there surprises in anti submarine technology?
All of this is quite complex. A petri dish is very simple.
All nuclear arms treaties have ceased at this point in time. They say testing will resume. What happens is Russia and China decide to ramp?
Interesting times.
What we can hope is that those that have the ability to deploy WMD are sane enough to understand the consequences. IMO the end of industrial civilization and worse
well, yes. the current situation can be explained in a few paragraphs. Hypersonics go fast enough to ionize air, just a small fraction of it, but sufficient to form a plasma. The plasma absorbs radio waves, so the A2AD system can not acquire a target and will not work. We have seen it in Israel and in Ukraine. Even ballistic hypersonic missiles can not be stopped with something like a Patriot or Aegis system.
Russia should think seriously about what it wants to do with its window of opportunity, where it (and Iran) have hypersonics and the rest of the world does not. it is not going to last very long.
So if you want to stop hypersonics you have to work in the visible, perhaps infrared if there are clouds, and basically have a networked constellation of satellites covering the globe and relaying targeting info. Working in the infrared is tricky because most of the wavelength emitted by excited air molecules will also be absorbed by said molecules, but I am fairly sure there are a few bands of relative transparency (these are molecular lines or bands corresponding to transitions between excited states, excluding the ground state).
But this system will still not work with maneuverable hypersonics, which I believe only Russia has, and it is anyway slow, can be easily muted with EW, and probably fooled with sufficient decoys. I think the US is not protected.
We will ride it into st Petersburg on a donkey and Moscow on a mule if we have to. We moved in next door. Your cross town. Sure you have stamps and love letters.
Just chill. Somthing is about to give financial in a big way. You are in good shape. It’s in gods hands.
Wishful thinking.
How do we know that China hasn’t got 6,000 nukes? Can we trust the official figures? They have had half a century to build them. I recall that both the USA and the USSR had built 50,000 each within about 20 years of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, before they embarked on the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) in 1969 and then the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START), which led to the Strategic Arms Reductions Treaties, known as START I and START II, in 1991 and 1993, respectively.
Didn’t Sun Tsu say,“ Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. Declare 600 nukes, but build 6,000, because you never know when thy will come in handy.”
Dennis, The first spacecraft to try and find out exactly what’s on 16 Psyche the largest M class asteroid, mostly made of nickel-iron and stone. As yet we don’t seem to have found any that are platinum and copper.
The Psyche mission will arrive at the asteroid in 2029, taking photos and surface samples for analysis etc.
Assuming that mission works and finds what we think is there, nickel iron and stone, the next mission will not arrive until 2038-40 which might bring some samples back to earth, 6 years later.
Asteroids of pure metals like platinum and copper are not going to exist. Some of the asteroids may indeed have contents of platinum and copper, but will require mining and separation of the metals/minerals to become pure forms of useable platinum and copper.
We would be looking at next century to get the equipment up there assuming a world continuing along as present, which is going to be impossible because of oil shortages.
All talk of mining asteroids is total nonsense. Why is this so hard for you to believe??
He seems to be believing in unicorns and so forth
By the time Psyche returns there will probably be no facility to greet her.
There is no alternative to what is coming but mental masturbation.
Coming home from the farm yesterday saw a farmer with two horses cultivating his field. When he plows he uses eight horsepower; his rows are very straight.
The Amish rest on Sunday, gathering in groups at their homes, rotating I would guess. Their homes are neat, their lawns cut with hand mowers by women and children when I have observed them.
Not totally renewable, but self replicating. It is an alternative to Pt.
Am in agreement with most on this site, the fossil fuel age is leaving us. On the farm this may imply over a certain size, land is a burden; it requires humans to work it along with animals. Land size ownership is limited by family size or ability to find forced labor. One result may be the deification of a king for control; think that has been tried in history.
A high tech, non polluting alternative would be Pt and associated metals for fuel cells; open to alternatives if anyone has a suggestion. Solar cells are the problem, how does one dispose of them? Pt is/should be easy to recycle.
It is not going to be easy and 80% of the ideas tried will fail, trick is to find the other 20%.
Dennis L.
An answer which has nothing to do with the assertion.
Belief has nothing to do with it. Seek and ye shall find.
From what I see, there is no alternative. Its value is in what it can do, it seems almost priceless.
If it requires mining, mine it.
Life has never been easy.
Dennis L.
Funny that you say belief has nothing to do with it then immediately quote a religious text. Yes, belief has everything to do with it.
Your 80/20 theory, from Vilfredo Pareto but not really mainstream until Joseph Juran, a Romanian born engineer , popularized it in the 1920s, reflects the reality of the industrial revolution era, not the natural law.
IN reality the 1-99 law is what it works. Only 1% is worth anything. I understand you would like to deny it since you think you won’t belong to the 1% but you have a good chance to belong to the 20%.
This is sad, but as far as technology development goes, I’m inclined to agree that very few have real impact: it’s 1 in 100 scientists or even 1 in 1000 or even more. The part I don’t know is how much is luck (right area of study; right place and right time) vs how much is combined talent and work ethic.
Catastrophe Bonds Use Models Underestimating Climate Risks, Investors Say
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2024/05/13/773888.htm
The risk models that helped drive one of the most lucrative bets of 2023 are increasingly being tested by smaller weather shocks fueled by climate change.
Catastrophe bonds and other insurance-linked securities, which powered last year’s highest-returning hedge fund strategy, are built on calculations that can underestimate a new breed of risk stemming from high-frequency events such as wildfires and thunderstorms, according to veteran investors.
After analyzing data from almost two million US wildfires, Elementum saw a “statistically significant, higher frequency of areas that were burned in northern California” than the model indicated, Weber said. In the end, the investment manager was able to come up with more accurate wildfire estimates, which helped it negotiate higher interest rates on deals.
Cat bonds, now a $47 billion market, were devised to allow insurers to transfer the financial risk from rare but highly destructive natural disasters to the capital markets. Investors get access to potentially huge returns if a pre-defined catastrophe doesn’t hit, but the bonds can be wiped out if it does.
Last year, cat bonds soared 20% in value, leading hedge funds like Fermat Capital Management to generate their best-ever results. Less specialized investors have started to buy cat bonds and European regulators are even considering allowing retail investors to hold them. Insurers, meanwhile, are issuing new cat bonds at a “record-setting pace,” according to ILS researcher Artemis.
Pricing the risk just right is what it’s all about for cat-bond investors, and some of them are brilliant at it. But the exercise is getting harder.
…..Last year, the hottest on record, secondary perils accounted for 86% of global insurance losses, according to insurance broker Aon Plc. Mid-sized events that cause $1 billion to $5 billion in losses are now the fastest-growing type of natural disaster, says Swiss Re, the world’s second-largest reinsurer after Munich Re.
This shift is a concern for cat-bond investors. Twelve Capital, which invests in the securities, says the basic models frequently underestimate losses from secondary perils. Tenax Capital, another specialist ILS investor, warns of the growing hazards associated with secondary perils that are often bundled into cat bonds in a way that makes it hard to estimate the risk implications.
“The disconnect between modeled risk probabilities and bond spreads, especially where secondary perils are involved, indicates that models have room for improvement,” Tenax said in a statement.
About 40% of today’s cat-bond market is made up of securities that cover aggregate losses, which is where investors are most likely to feel the fallout of secondary perils, according to Artemis, which tracks unusual insurance strategies.
…..Karen Clark, a pioneer of catastrophe modeling and chief executive of Karen Clark & Co. in Boston, said there’s clearly a need for “more advanced physical-modeling techniques,” which need to be supported by vast amounts of data and computing power. The firm updates its models every two years on average, mainly to account for climate change.
What good are cat bonds if no one has the dough to pay out because it’s all in Treasuries?
Or other bonds. Other bonds drop in value as interest rates rise and are likely illiquid.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Chicago Fed Letter, No. 405, 2018
Catastrophe Bonds: A Primer and Retrospective
By Andy Polacek
Since 1997, the catastrophe (CAT) bond market has provided the insurance industry with protections against natural disasters that have grown more frequent and costly. This article explains how CAT bonds work, and then looks at how the market for them has grown in size, coverage, and sophistication over the past two decades. It also explores how and why different types of institutions use CAT bonds to transfer insurance risks.
The catastrophe bond market was born during one of the most difficult periods for the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry. In 1992 Hurricane Andrew struck Florida and the Gulf Coast, inflicting $27 billion in damages, of which $15.5 billion was covered by insurance.1 At the time, Andrew was the costliest hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States: It led to the failure of eight insurance companies and pushed others to the brink of insolvency.2 As a result of the losses suffered during Andrew, insurers reevaluated their risk exposure to coastal areas across the country. Homeowners’ insurance prices in coastal communities rose markedly to account for the possibility of significant losses, and many large insurers and reinsurers3 initially reduced their exposure to catastrophic events in coastal regions.
. To increase the available capital, the insurance industry created a new financial instrument called a catastrophe bond. A CAT bond is a security that pays the issuer when a predefined disaster risk is realized, such as a hurricane causing $500 million in insured losses or an earthquake reaching a magnitude of 7.0 (on the Richter scale).4 The first CAT bonds were issued in 1997, giving insurers access to broader financial markets and offering institutional investors, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds, the opportunity to earn an attractive return on investment uncorrelated with the returns of other financial market instruments in exchange for assuming catastrophe insurance risks.
This Chicago Fed Letter discusses how CAT bonds work; how the CAT bond market has evolved over the past 20 years; and how insurers, reinsurers, and state catastrophe funds use CAT bonds and why.
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/405.#:~:text=CAT%20bonds%20also%20offer%20the,prices%20over%20an%20extended%20period.
How is the equity stored so it can be made liquid and paid our and time of large disaster?
Hold cash value erodes do to inflation.
Hold stocks -non liquid
Hold bonds- non liquid
The real answer is the lender of last resort comes in making a loan using the bonds held by the CAT if liquidity is needed creating the liquidity from nothing just like AIG.
BAU
Or
It’s just a not my problem game. Signing of the liability to a enity that cant pay and makes money existing on a imaginary premise.
Good questions..Afraid not into playing the money game and this was posted on another website that may help settle some of it
I always think of Naomi Klein’s memorable phrase when I’m reading about cat bonds. There seems no limit to the absurd ways in which the financial system can be predatory and opportunistic in its quest for short-term gain. By JP
I have no certain knowledge of climate change and no idea of long term changes, but.
On my farm some land which has been farmed in the past is not farmable in a sustainable manner with current precipitation patterns. Dirt moves even with the best of management.
I adapted, generally do, put a significant amount in crp, farm the best. While not intentional nor prescient, it is a response to changing weather conditions on the health and suitability of the land for some farming techniques.
Those who farm flat land find drainage a problem, too wet, pooling water and need for tiling which requires maintenance and a slope somewhere for drainage. A guess is more rain will decrease the value of the land due to too much water.
In times past, some peoples were nomads, seasons change, weather patterns are variable; people move. American hx reports a migration from the middle
of the country to the west coast secondary to lack of precipitation in the thirties.
Some of the best “experts” in the world a few years back forecast the desertification of the west. Now, Tulare Lake has returned to CA.
Tough to predict the weather let alone climate.
Dennis L.
I don’t know much about Cat bond pricing, and how it has worked out. An awfully lot of cat reinsurance is excess over an aggregate dollar amount. Such reinsurance is very much subject to problems if there is inflation because of the leveraged impact of inflation on an aggregate limit.
Perhaps bonds are a poor store of value as we hit limits?
Who would have thunk.
😁
Is Europe trying to break away from America ? Do they see the writing on the wall ?
The issue of rates (possible increase in the US and 0 room for increase in Europe) and the flow of capital to North American banks is bleeding the old continent. In the elite struggle the thing is to involve the USA in an escalation in Ukraine and put a hypocritical moral tone through the ICC to the massacre in Gaza. Recognition of Palestine as an independent state by Spain, Italy and Norway . Clear message to Bibi , , if you enter EU we will arrest you . The surprise events in the UK and the changes in the WEF signal that something is moving behind the scenes.
“The surprise events in the UK”
I’ve not been keeping up to date with events at home. What have I missed ravi?
FF and Adonis , I was referring to the untimely and unexpected decision to hold elections UK and the stepping down of Klaus Schwab .
Thanks for the clarification ravi. Can I ask what is unexpected?
Last election was 12 December 2019 and a maximum 5 year period is allowed, so it’s a few months early. That would normally be looked at as just picking what is believed to be the most advantageous time.
The dissolution(from 30th May) does give ministers 5 weeks with no parliamentary oversight, so we should keep an eye out for shenanigans(both home and abroad).
FF and others in UK . Copy/paste from from a long comment on TAE by an emigrant .
”Oh, did I mention that Jimmy Saville – the weirdest pedophile you can imagine – was Thatcher’s friend, as in they spent Christmases together. Starmer, the then head of her Criminal Prosecution Service, protected Saville so that he could rape more girls. It now looks like Starmer the rapist (you help, you are also guilty) is soon to be the Prime Minister in the UK …. a pedophile rapist as PM, and people wonder why I don’t go back! ”
From the frying pan into the fire .
I don’t think Starmer was head of the CPS then(not sure), but he was the one that sent the “don’t you dare drop the rape charges against Assange” email, when the Swedish prosecution had investigated and realised it was a complete set up. The Swedish prosecutor refused and was quickly sacked.
He is a security services man, that was parachuted into a safe Labour seat the moment Corbyn took the leadership(not even sure he was a member beforehand). He’s also a knight of the realm and member of the trilateral commission, which should make any socialist question wtf he’s doing in their party(they really shouldn’t vote for him).
There will be no change of direction with him, but he will be very useful for destroying the Labour party base, cause more division in the public and so make it more confused and easier to control.
He’s just a continuation of the same party, different tie, that we’ve had here since at least the 90’s. As Theresa May liked to say “nothing has changed”.
Almost forgot, he’s a self confessed Zionist, so freely admits that he works for a foreign entity and as such should be charged with treason and hanged if found guilty(given he’s on record, that’s a foregone conclusion). Admittedly that would set a precedent which would empty both houses(not a bad thing at all).
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to who sits in number 10. The corporations man that sits behind the speaker(who decides what is allowed to be debated) is the only one in Westminster that directs the path we take. Everything else is just theatre.
I would advise keeping an eye on events leading up to the election, although not necessarily related to it.
It seems USA has always had a huge malice against Europe since the latter was more advanced.
USA had a one time boast of intelligence, namely by the migration of the smarter people from Europe to there during and after WW2.
I personally think Europe is beyond salvation, though. USA has made Europe a fool for too long. It won’t recover.
tell us about the surprise events in the uk and what have you heard about the wef
The slugs here in my area of the Central Europe constitute such a catastrophy that e.g. the farmers have to sow the sugar beet seeds with the pellets against the slugs (metaldehyde or ferric phosphate). Everything that I plant or sow must be accompanied with these pellets. They started to eat also the potato plants.
what eats slugs?
Salamanders
Ducks.
Klaus Schwab?
Slugs will commit sepeku en masse in a deep dish filled with sugar water. Beer works too but bohemian is not 3.25 a case anymore.
Just an update . We are in the last week of May but there are too many rainy days . I don’t see the tractors out in the field . Visited my doctor as I was feeling down under . He said it was due to lack of sunny days this year and many were having the same symptoms of low energy level .
Rain here also in Midwest US.
Dennis L.
Collateral damage . Clothing stores have no sales for their spring and summer collections . In April the Easter vacations were a washout and in May we had 3 extra long weekends when the public goes for day trips to the Belgian coast , again washouts . Of course a big problem for the weekly open air markets where most of the immigrants sell their stuff .
Beautiful weather here in Japan! And the sunlight is so strong this year. Mercifully China has not been inflicting nearly as much air pollution on us since the Plandemic began, and the plants are looking much healthier on that account.
Get some powdered seaweed MG. Slugs hate it and it’s a great fertiliser. There’s also a huge range of plants that they hate, so plant lavender or similar in with your chosen plants. Also encourage hedgehogs, shrews, mice, moles, squirrels, foxes, beetles, toads, snakes, turtles, shrews, ducks, starlings and various other birds, as they will all happily eat slugs.
Blasts suggestion is probably the easiest and quickest though.
Mr Shellman on oil prices .
” I often believe at the whim of traders, and then there is the matter of what is oil and what is not…a big part of the equation these days most people ignore.
A handful of people in the world control the price of oil on a day to day basis, including big producers. They short and long oil as they please to make money. The Houthis shot a missile into an Iranian tanker last weekend, bound for China; youda thunk the price of oil would have jumper up $5 a barrel. It went down instead.
Supply and demand establish long and short term trends but speculators run the market, IMO. ”
WTI 77
Brent 82
very nice cooperation to keep oil prices in a fairly low range.
inflation adjusted, today’s prices are way below 2008-2014.
Yes. Large inflation for producers. Low oil prices. Perfectly matching Gail’s model.
Perhaps affordability is part of what determines oil price.
I admire your patience.
“Petrodollar” oil prices have dropped since early April (http://oil-price.net/) — 2023 may have been post-covid peak oil (https://davecoop.net/seneca) — if there isn’t profitability in paying for the oil produced, the high bids for it go down.
surplus is what ultimately determines oil price
Somewhere above I did an envelope calculation where Elon could make $86B by using solar to power orbital cellphone towers. At $.10/KwH and total global use of electricity by telecoms the total electric bill was $860B give or take. 10% of the total electrical usage is not that bad, it is conservative.
$86B makes searching for Pt and Cu a reasonable exercise. H is doable with ground based solar, sufficient, cheap H and of course a cubic mile of Pt.
The electricity saved by going orbital can be used to power AI.
Starship goes up soon, we need Starship, we need Pt, we don’t need more goo burned in our spaceship earth.
Dennis L.
Mark P. Mills
The “Energy Transition” Won’t Happen
Foundational innovation in cloud technology and artificial intelligence will require more energy than ever before—shattering any illusion that we will restrict supplies.
The laptop class has rediscovered a basic truth: foundational innovation, once adoption proceeds at scale, is followed by an epic increase in energy consumption. It’s an iron law of our universe.
To illustrate that law, consider three recent examples, all vectors leading to the “shocking” discovery of radical increases in expected electricity demand, now occupying headlines today. First, there’s the electric car, which, if there were one in every garage, as enthusiasts hope, would roughly double residential neighborhood electricity demands. Next, there’s the idea of repatriating manufacturing, especially for semiconductors. This is arguably a “foundational innovation,” since policymakers are suddenly showing concern over the decades-long exit of such industries from the U.S. Restoring American manufacturing to, say, the global market share of just two decades ago would see industrial electricity demand soar by 50 percent.
And now the scions of software are discovering that both virtual reality and artificial intelligence, which emerge from the ineluctable mathematics of machine-learning algorithms, are anchored in the hard reality that everything uses energy. This is especially true for the blazing-fast and power-hungry chips that make AI possible. Nvidia, the leader of the AI-chip revolution and a Wall Street darling, has over the past three years alone shipped some 5 million high-power AI chips. To put this in perspective, every such AI chip uses roughly as much electricity each year as do three electric vehicles. And while the market appetite for electric vehicles is sagging and ultimately limited, the appetite for AI chips is explosive and essentially unlimited.
Consider a recent headline in the Wall Street Journal: “Big Tech’s Latest Obsession Is Finding Enough Energy”—because the “AI boom is fueling an insatiable appetite for electricity.”
https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-energy-transition-wont-happen
Really well written study overview…this ain’t going to end well
“Foundational innovation in cloud technology and artificial intelligence will require more energy than ever before—shattering any illusion that we will restrict supplies.”
Please consider reading my post regarding orbital cell phone “towers” and energy. I would appreciate your comments.
Just personally used Copilot to write a subroutine I had written, Copilot does it and very fast lines/minute with no syntax errors. It is amazing from my point of view. I have a project where I wish to use existing, opensource GetHub Code. This may make it possible.
I have no idea of electrical use, but isn’t much of the initial usage to build the model?
Dennis L.
Until very recently, satellites could not connect to mobile phones hundreds of kilometers below. The sort of satellite phones people took on expeditions to more remote places have chunky antennas, require clear lines of sight to multiple satellites, and take a while to acquire a signal. Integrating terrestrial and satellite cellular networks isn’t as easy as moving between cell towers and handing off the signal from one to the next.
I couldn’t locate your article but read a few on the subject..
Seems your satellite method will be just a niche in the scheme of AI..won’t change the energy demand
AI won’t be very helpful if it greatly increases energy use and also greatly reduces availability of jobs for workers. We need something that makes high-paying jobs for workers.
I don’t know, but in the US we need an education system which teaches basics. Received some plumbing supplies, up until now very reliable. First box had a pressure controller when I ordered a reducer, second box had a 1″ union, packing slip marked as 1 1/4. There were multiple items in each box, so say 4 out of 5 isn’ bad I guess. Very costly to ship things back and forth; this is for diesel, need domestic, Chinese or whatever leak.
There are countless headlines on the Internet stating young males don’t want to work any longer. Onasis once said were it not for women, money would not be necessary. Guys aren’t dating much anymore.
Again, don’t know the economic effects, but I am using Copilot more and more, now for programming. It works very well, very quickly and when I have it run existing code and request better variable names, it is excellent and adds comments which aid in clarity. The form is beautiful, all intendents match, spacing of lines is perfect.
Taking C# this fall, I go to school to become fluent, have to work hard but I will run my exercises through Copilot and see how an “expert” does it.
Dennis L.
I have a friend who works for a tech company. He uses AI for code writing all the time. First pass and then two or three tweak passes then hand edit if needed. He can do in 30 mins what used to take four hours. As far as job security he is enhancing his by being far more productive.
We the working class need high-paying jobs for humans.
We the owning class need AI that is cheaper than an equivalent mass of human labor.
Not all people have the same goals.
I liked this quote from the Mills report:
There is something ironic about convertng methane to bs.
i remember their mantra ‘ doing more with less’ not possible is it diminishing returns was totally ignored they thought that no easy energy source would be needed now maybe we shall see some more stupity what insanity will they come up with next to further their campaign to ‘doing more with less’ , what more can we expect from the neocons.
“Electricity grids creak as AI demands soar
A Generative AI system might use around 33 times more energy than machines running task-specific software, according to a recent study by Dr Luccioni and colleagues. The work has been peer-reviewed but is yet to be published in a journal. ”?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj5ll89dy2mo
US Navy same bunch of dumbf***s who beat their chests and pretend they’re going to defend Taiwan from China.
https://x.com/JDiamond1/status/1794363897618837593
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bidens-320m-gaza-pier-has-detached-drifted-israeli-beach
Yes,
Simple solution, land some US Marines, put them at the head of a column of relief trucks and in Marine speak have them say, “Step Aside, Please.”
Starving people is not good public relations.
No pier, no problem.
Dennis L.
Asteroid mining more likely.
Guess you never heard about this
https://www.amazon.com/Hungry-Ghosts-Secret-Famine-Paperback/dp/0805056688
I have actually read it. tl, dr, the Chinese leaders won’t give a rat’s ass about starving people or public relations.
Your delusion seems to be growing every day.
You dont say.
Too much complexity!
Shale oil….will end….
“Which would you rather have in the United States, high quality, usable conventional oil that has a shelf life of 50 years and declines and the rate of 3% annually, or unconventional, super light tight oil that is so lousy it and has to be exported to foreign countries, that declines 43% per year across all shale oil basins, and requires 7,000 $11 MM dollar wells a year just to maintain? ”
https://www.oilystuff.com/news-stuff
or here
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/how-the-evolution-of-fracking-and-the-downfall-of-a-company-are-transforming-the-oil-industry/ar-BB1mREjW?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=75a77120a9a8440bb8ea20429ca463bf&ei=52
Shales current problems….
https://www.oilystuff.com/single-post/the-longer-the-better-club
From the first link:
Second link:
Exxon’s bet on longer laterals is not working out for Exxon. The approach is based on a hope for quick profits: Drain America first! But it is not working. Exxon is now the biggest natural gas producers, even though that is not what it was trying to do.
It seems to me that Exxon doesn’t have a good track record. Going into a new merger now is not likely to help it. I think of Chevron as doing somewhat better, but when “the pickings are slim,” no one will do well.
This will be a Big problem for the United States!
This is what I am most concerned about; I think we a closer than a lot of people think to decline
“Shale oil….will end….”
true, that’s the common way of writing in the future tense, it’s declining now and will end someday, perhaps in the 2030s.
meanwhile Canada is increasing production, and Venezuela will be increasing production, both to mostly export to the USA.
other oil sources won’t completely make up the difference in shale decline but will slow the overall oil decline.
I am enjoying watching the slow decline of IC.
Maybe, with respect to “mostly to export to the US.” I know that Canada has increased its exports capacity to its West Coast, with the idea of shipping to China and other Asian countries.
(Byoblu news)
In Italian region Puglia wìll become mandatory for students between the age 11 – 25 to officially declare to schools their vaccination status about papilloma virus.
Students will be obliged to declare in public if they accepted vaccination or if they are rejecters and therefore not complaint to regional health indications.
https://www.byoblu.com/2024/05/25/in-puglia-scatta-lobbligo-di-profilazione-vaccinale-per-gli-studenti-il-piano-e-di-lopalco/
Will the rejectors get to explain that the MRNA vaccines are experimental technologies and the risk factors regarding their deployment or do they just get stoned by the rabble?
Perhaps s formal litany statement they can memorize and recite?
I swear to commit mind soul and body to big pharma as the newest branch of the military industrial complex. Big pharma the gracious giver of health and life. My body will and life are freely given with full understanding. If I should suffer a vaccine injury it is a small price to pay for the good of the whole. Should I be struck down I will become greater than what I am now, my life freely given in vaccine sacrifice.
Good way for companies making vaccines to make money. Health of students??
How about this for the rejectors rule movement?
I reject this vile substance contrary to science and pharmaceutical standards.
I affirm my self evident right to choose to introduce only healthy substances into my body.
I assert that self harm is wrong.
Reject
Affirm
Assert
Doesn’t that region have lots of ‘Albanians’ and others from the Balkans?
The general percentage of foreign people in Puglia is very low around 3%, while in the rest of the Country is around 8-9%.
Immigrants go to the north in search of jobs, where is more probable to find them.
But you hit the point because in Puglia there is portion of people who still speak Albanese, but it is a small group whose origins are from Albania because of an ancient immigration made during previous centuries.
It is a nice and interesting enclave, but small.
In general about this criminal law, I expect that in Puglia there will probably be a good portion of fake documents about this vaccination, because in Puglia people are smart and – sorry to say – have learnt how to fool the government well.
Paradoxically, during these hard times, the Regions of the south of Italy have an advantage.
People in the north are more compliance and more controlled by the State, but in the south people are less compliance and less controlled by the State.
In the south there is a big portion of people who don’t pay taxes or declare less, as a consequence of that, the State have less resources to control its citizens.
This comes from historical reasons, the south have been conquered by the north and people generally see the State in a less friendly way and have less trust.
The real problem will be if that law will be applied in the north, in that case all the students will be really vaccinated.
As a general consideration, I think that Italy has become a place to make experiments.
It is a Country on the verge of bankrupt, politicians have decided to sell their citizens to the higher bidder.
https://www.quotidianodipuglia.it/bari/puglia_presenza_stranieri_bari_foggia_provenienza-6294881.html
Well that’s: very disturbing. It’s very different where I live in the USA. A lot of people were suspicious of the inje tons. Some towns I would guess only 25% took them.
Now pretty much everyone regardless of politics regards them as harmful. Sure there’s exceptions. No one talks about it. If you bring it up you are “that guy”. People just want to get it behind them.
If they started asking for loyalty oaths to the vaccine they would not be well received.
We never had to prove injection. I have never seen a document proving injection. No one I know has seen a document proving injection.
If the situation occurred again my thought would be the people getting injected would be very low. 10% perhaps. It’s pretty much regarded as something in the past. The unease I felt about mandatory injection is gone because of my belief very few people would get injected if the same situation occurred. Most people have seen the data on vaccine injury now. Even people who were all for it commonly refer to being “fooled” into taking it.
Then there was the military reversing course on it. So whether someone thinks it was a “mistake” or one of the other ideas about it its regarded as in the past.
Honestly I think a lot of the refusal was because everyone knows about mark of the beast in the bible. Whether you are a believer or not it just doesnt seem like such a hot idea.
I just thought everywhere was the same. I had no Idea vaccine documents where still being considered. What you are describing is very disturbing.
I would be very suspicious of the authorities too. We have plenty of solid data now that these injections have unacceptable risks.
As far as the financial risks, that’s everywhere. All you can do is keep a some food like rice and oil on hand. I think everyone should be a gardener now. I enjoy growing food and working with the soil very much now.
It’s just kale and potatoes. Even I can grow the Ethiopian kale.
Well, Lecce has become a black city (Africans doing the picking of table grapes nearby) and has been so for at least 15 years. I concur that those Albanians are de facto italians. After several generations national identity is lost. Italy is (or used to be) a pretty good assimilator. There are other pockets of albanians, for example the massacre of Portella della Ginestra was committed against them (because they were communist, not because they were Albanians)
Vertical integration, physically and metaphorically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87ZthES9Rsc&t=19s
At 15:09 or close, mention made of direct link of cellphones to satellites. My guess has been for some time this is not good for terrestrial network providers. Also it is direct use of solar energy with no transmission losses. Solves one of Gail’s main problems with solar, transmission losses and costs.
Per Copilot telecom operators around the world on average use about 5 % of all electricity. costwise. Using $.10/KwH this means $860B electrical cost. If Elon is using solar, he would seem to have an interesting cost advantage.
He and a small group own the rockets, own the satellites, generates even at 10% of this number $86B/year. Well, in space the sun never sets on his empire; couldn’t resist that one.
It also appears to be conversion of energy into information, not total, but seemingly partial.
Dennis L.
And your Solar-God-Wannabe is not using solar.
You should send your resume to your God and build a solar satellite for him and maybe he will award some stock options to you.
China dumping dollars and where – this fellow thinks the money is coming out of Belgium. Earlier I mentioned trust, a first approximation is this loss of trust is leading to movement of dollars, not elimination.
Apparently China is moving dollars into their own banks, they are taking losses on selling bonds to move their money out of foreign banks. They sold and are selling bonds prior to maturity; Russia would have been wise to do the same thing.
Using the US dollar as a weapon removes the trust factor, that is costly.
Nice chart is included with a link to visualcapitalist.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnzuR-kog-w
To an amateur this implies a liquidity problem for Europe, specifically the European Central Bank. Thoughts?
Dennis L.
The last time China went on a treasury selling spree a “bank” in Belgium bought them all. It was around 100% of Belgiums GDP as I remember.
Where a bank is based is like flagging a ship. It has zero to do with where the funding comes from.
If you have 3/4 trillion beanie babys to sell the price might go down a bit. The beanie baby manufacturer might not be pleased. It may decide to buy all the beanie babys instead of the price going down. Like diamonds.beanybabys, and Treasuries the most valuable things in the world.
Treasure = treasury.
Treasures are the license fee to create dollars. There is just one catch. There has to be collateral in the real world.
In Russias case their license was revoked. Russia said uh we got the roads we got the vehicle we gonna drive.
China is finding the license not useful leading to misappropriation of assets. Empty condos. Like a teenager wrecking a Corvette they are considering a mini van now. Why do I need this license. I own the roads the vehicle and the petrol.
Russia and China figuring our speed limits and such.
If the collateral is priced in rembini or rubles a license to create dollars rapidly becomes valueless as do the dollars themselves.
Beany baby for sale cheap= liquidity crisis.
The shenanigans in treasury auctions ensure all the freshly created beanybabys get sold at the price they want. Secondary market aka craigslist is not as easy. Especially 3/4 trillion of them. It’s a tough job but someone has to do it and Jerome is the right man for the job.
Could you track a dollar bond, discount it as you will, sell it to a Belgian bank and then help me understand where the liquid part goes?
There is no liquid part. That’s the point in regard to bonds. The liquidity is tied up in bonds. Liquidity is only created through loans on collateral on physical assets. In the make believe world of infinite assets, bonds create lots of liquidity via leverage. In the real world liquidity is determined by physical collateral available.
China had the magic formula. Bonds and lots of physical assets. They are getting rid of their bonds which means giving up their leverage according to the rules-based order. That means a lot less liquidity.
As far as tracking, my understanding is only the financial identity of the buyer and the country it is flagged under s recorded in treasury sales. Who what why of the funding is not a matter of record. No tracking cash for more mortals. They can see everything.
That’s transparent only from the other end the books of the buyer in jurisdictions where this is mandated for more mortals.
“Where a bank is based is like flagging a ship. It has zero to do with where the funding comes from.”
If regulating authorities say freeze the account, isn’t it frozen?
Would that not be a reason to move to a jurisdiction where they are honest and not subject to pressure from outside forces?
A ship moves, once on the high seas one needs a warship to change its course, etc.
Dennis L.
It’s only us that cant see. After 911 banking secrecy ended. For us. Conversely they see everthing.
THEY see and track everything. We see and track nothing. Our vision is limited to rights regarding independent audits and shareholders.
My understanding is only the country flagged and identity of the purchaser is public record.
Secondary market I dont know.. Funding? Does Walmart ask where you got the money?
Getting rid of depositors and shareholders solves a whole bunch of problems with zero capital requirements and mark to market permanently ended.
The analyst, Keven Walmsley (mentioned on the first screen), seems like an in credibly good analyst. This situation doesn’t look good for the US and Europe.
Who’s to Blame For the Broken Housing Market?
Posted May 23, 2024 by Ben Carlson
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/05/whos-to-blame-for-the-broken-housing-market/
……All real estate investors were buying 12% of homes in 2002. That number is now more like 25%. But it’s not behemoth financial firms. It’s mainly small mom and pop investors buying a rental home or two as an investment property.
The big institutions now make up less than 2% of purchases down from a high of nearly 5% in 2022:
If anything, it’s shocking how small of a share big financial firms have in the housing market.
A lot of this activity involves small-time investors or people who took advantage of ultra-low mortgage rates to invest in residential real estate. There are plenty of people who didn’t want to let go of their 3% mortgage so they turned into rental investors by renting out their old home once they purchased a new one.
John Burns estimates rental home investors make up 9.9% of all homes in America, only slightly higher than the 9% share in 2005.
These things are also highly cyclical. Investors have pulled in recent years as rates shot higher.
….If private equity firms aren’t to blame for the unhealthy housing market, then who is?
Here’s the short version of what happened:
There was a housing bubble in the early to mid 2000s based on rising home prices and loose lending standards. We actually overbuilt homes for a number of years.
The housing bubble popped, home prices crashed, and homebuilders big and small got annihilated.1
Coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, lending standards got much tighter. After getting left holding the bag, homebuilders got more conservative and pulled back on the number of homes they were building.
The result is that in the 2010s, we severely underbuilt the number of new homes needed for the coming millennial wave of homebuyers.
No mention of immigration, illegal or legal, where I live in South Florida much has been purchased by foreigners, either those that came to live here permanently or are absentee owners
You are consistent with what I personally see although that is a very limited sample.
An individual I know, wife of a used car dealer, owns several homes which are rented. She works very hard and it is not an easy way to make a buck. Rochester is a good rental market as residents move in and move out. It is common for residents in some specialties to purchase a home in which to live and then sell when their training is complete. Houses sell in less than two weeks in my neighborhood.
Dennis L.
Underbuilt vs overbuilt depends on the income level of the buyers. We have been moving to a world of more and more wage/wealth disparity. Young people and immigrants tend not to have enough money to buy homes. This is especially the case when educational debt is considered in purchasing power. Because of this, I would expect that more, smaller units, mostly rental would be needed. The mix of houses vs apartments would change.
Also, I know that in the area where I live, a lot of homes have been bought up by speculators. As the article says, these speculators are often individuals or couples. Some of the speculators where I live have fixed up homes minimally, and rented them out to students–often four students sharing a home. (Some of these are graduate students.) They are hoping for appreciation and income. These are somehow providing housing to people; this is working out OK. I can’t imagine the students leave the homes in stellar condition.
There are quite a few others that have had purchased properties with the idea of getting huge income from the properties. Some wanted to be AirBnb locations. One house was subdivided into two apartments, so that the two halves could be rented out separately, at quite high rents. Other properties were bought up with the idea that somehow, the zoning would be changed from single family residential to something that would allow more residents. These properties sit empty, either all of the time, or nearly all of the time (AirBnb hopefuls). These purchases have removed perfectly good homes from the available housing supply. I imagine the buyers are hoping for price appreciation, and prices have been going up. But they adversely affect the supply. People looking for rentals are not looking for high-priced rentals.
Just trying to deflect the bullet from the big hedge funds who own lots of house.
Next.
There may be a lot of losses to spread around.
The Americans never really experienced any setback, so they do not understand the concept of history and civilization regressing.
Civilization can remain stagnant for many years, like the Asian hydraulic civilizations, or can regress quite significantly, like Europe 1815-1848 at least.
The Eastern Hordes , who are unable and unwilling to advanced civilization, triumphing means the end of everything, and return to Eastern Despotism.
The Wokists are obnoxious and disagreeable, and have some weird ideas, but it is also true that they are the only party with a potential for progress.
The Soviet Soyuz rocket was built in 1960s but was used as recently as May 16, just 9 days ago. They only made minor modifications to the original design.
That is the finest of the Hordes science/tech, awarded by USA who wanted to save the lives of a few thousand rednecks instead of claiming most of 3rd reich’s resources.
It is unlikely that the Hordes will advance further from the Soyuz tech level. Russia has tried to build newer rockets but have failed all of them. Even India, out of all places, builds better rockets.
If the Wokists are defeated, we will see a regression of history which will make the world go back to the age of horse and buggies.
Burn the woke, burn the cities.
Humans go insane in cities.
Shenzhen makes any othet city on earth look like Mumbai on the bad side of town. Too bad Russia didn’t have any tin foil and some super 8 cameras for their space program.
The iskander is in its 4th generation. Multiple variants of topol m both land and sea variants.
The USA has no iskander equivalent. No p800 equivalent. No khinzhal equivalent. No sar 24 equivalent.
The trident is a good missile with its updates.
The tomahawk in It’s time was cutting edge.
If the USA was smart it would be having the South Korea factory making Iskander clones going 24 7 3 shifts.
Europe has contributed a lot to the world no doubt. IMO your focus on the past is not allowing accurate perception of the world.
I say this no small amount of jealousy Russia and China have it going on. Do they have their strengths and weaknesses? Of course. Are they angels and saints, of course not. Do they have flaws in their moral character all humans do. Would I want to live there hell no. I’m sure they would have zero interest living here.
It’s quite telling that an old school racist and bigot as yourself is promoting woke culture because on a base level they are similar exceptionalism and authoritarianism. Kudos to you. It’s an accurate and honest assessment. A little snip snip and you will fit right in. Nuke those dirty Asians and intolerant Russians. If any one wants to live differently condemn them. You clearly have found your belonging all that’s needed is the snip snip and some lipstick. Once you do that all you have to do is express your views and you are entitled to everything. The epitome of western culture as you yourself have stated and it’s right there within your grasp. Metaphorically physically it will no longer be within your grasp. You can go to London or Hamburg and talk about chucky to your hearts delight. Well maybe not.
The Germans have become completely soft, and are now unsalvageable.
The British, the Coronation Street people since the elites all perished in 1914-18 or otherwise got diluted to nothing, still refuse to repent the harm they have caused to Civilization, and revere enemies of civilization like Nelson, Wellington or Arthur Harris, while their neighborhoods are conquered by Asians and Africans.
I have no hope on them long term, but at least they are better than the Hordes.
I am a believer in this site, most of the issues have been addressed; the future envisioned however seems too bleak.
The problem with electric autos may not be be lithium but copper. It is a NRR which my data shows going into critical scarcity about now.
Diesel does not have a long term future as discussed here, Honda as I have mentioned is prototyping a H heavy truck. I like an H economy from solar, it maintains an energy balance on spaceship earth and water is not a pollutant from what I can see.
Limiting factors will be Pt and Cu.
Starship launches soon, we need it to work.
Dennis L.
There are so many asteroids that are pure Cu or Pt, why not just wait until one floats gently down to Earth?
drb.
We only need one to start with, or a guess is the 80/20 rule which seems to be consistent in the known universe.
I don’t have the temperament to sit and wait for doom, death will come soon enough and now that I know the worst, look for something which works.
My current bet is H. Personal experience with biodiesel is miserable, ethanol in gasoline is not much better. At least H needs no additives. The first two do not store worth a damn, H leaks but at least what is left works.
Starship 4 launches in early June, someone, some group is putting what seems like endless amounts of money into real hardware. They don’t aim for perfection, they build, install excellent monitoring and telemetry equipment and launch, learn, change and launch again. This is more war time production than the historical approach.
In an electric world, we are short Pt and Cu for starters. It is dense and it must be in our solar system unless all of it collected into our earth.
Even if we had the oil, burning it does not seem wise inside what is essentially our spaceship.
As an aside, using Copilot, the damn thing works fairly well.
Dennis L.
Asteroid resources harvested
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rtJbxHjnZ7A&pp=ygUSbG9jayB0cmFjdG9yIGJlYW1z
Whether you have the temperament to sit for the doom or not does not matter an iota.
Although you have ignored it with a flat face, there is the example of Daniel Ludwig, who was the Elon Musk of the day, losing 2 billion in the jungles of brazil. Money won’t solve the problems.
Copilot feeds into your delusions, but it won’t create energy for you.
Whatever happens, it is 40 years too late. Doesn’t matter a bit.
There are so many Cu and Pt asteroids that we can wait for one shaped like an airplane, so it enters the atmosphere at a proper angle and land in the midst of the Sahara.
‘High risk’ of another pandemic with threat of flu jumping from animals to humans ‘a certainty’ warns World Health Organization’s outbreak preparedness tsar
“Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, the UN agency’s acting director for pandemic preparedness, said it was a ‘certainty’ the continent would face the threat of influenza.
Speaking on a WHO podcast, she argued Covid would not be ‘the last pandemic we will deal with in our lifetimes’.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13456315/High-risk-pandemic-threat-flu-jumping-animals-humans-warns-World-Health-Organization.html
Man is a cockroach, we have lived with viruses from the beginning and will continue to do so.
Not sure why some seem to think tinkering with these things is a good idea.
Earth has evolved to deal with viruses, perhaps it will deal with those who persist in not following the “plan” of our universe. Some ideas are blind alleys.
Dennis L.
I agree with the first part of the first sentence. Which is why Earth will fumigate itself to get rid of two legged roaches.
Scare the people as much as possible. These folks would be out of jobs if there weren’t pandemics.
“China says military drills encircling Taiwan designed to test its ability to ‘seize power’”
Interesting!
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/23/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-second-day-intl-hnk/index.html
China is not going to wait for Fortress Taiwan to be built. Or AUKUS to come on line. AUKUS has one purpose: China deterence.
It will be interesting. China is not going to to just set off across the strait in amphibious craft. They will have to own the air first. Then Taiwan gets softened up. Much learning will occur.
The Taiwanese are nice people. CCP can be a brutal dictator. I’m sure they would put me up against the wall forthwith.
Taiwan is the last barrier to China having complete autonomy.
Carriers are out. Will get sunk. Submarines not so much.
CCP is breaking all the rules. Openly adversarial to the rule-based order. This is not calm methodical Russia. Xi is turning out to be rather radical. I wonder if he makes Putin nervous?
If China was a little smarter they would wait and get some anti sub tech from Russia. One Tomahawk load out from a Ohio class and Shenzhen is hurting. It was stupid for AUKUS to dump the French diesal subs. They would have had 30 of those vs 5 US nukes. 30 subs with full load outs would be a force to reckoned with.
One wonders about the true state of anti sub tech…
With modern batteries a diesel electric sub is not to be sneered at.
If they are dumping the treasuries now my guess is they move on Taiwan next spring. It’s looking like Xi is not the patient type. Maybe Putin can talk a little strategic patience into Xi. Russia and China Have set up the western financial system for a hard fall.
Checkmate in 3. West’s move.
I think the neo liberals are paralyzed unable to comprehend/cope that their partner China has teamed with Russia. It looks like Trump in next Jan.
On like donkeykong.
China only unloaded 55 billion last quarter according to bloomberg. If that’s true, it’s gonna take a while to unload it all and why did they just buy that gold vault (in London IIRC)? They won’t make military moves immediately, is my guess. As for sub tech, what does Russia get if they share it? I’m not sure knowledge can readily be shared in a way that makes a difference to the parties … it takes institutions and trained scientists, not just data dumps, to develop industries. That applies in both directions between China and Russia, but China has more manpower and will better make use of any data dumps. I think you really need joint partnerships and co-work between those who know and those who are learning. Either that, or move up the value chain on your own.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/china-sells-record-sum-of-us-debt-amid-signs-of-diversification
According to Wikipedia,
China is not at all subtle in its plans.
I found the presentation I listened to at the Casualty Actuarial Society that seems to say that there has not been a huge surge in natural catastrophes due to climate change. It is called Assessment of Natural Catastrophe Impacts on the Insurance Industry.
AON is a big brokerage firm that would keep track of this kind of thing. Dan Hartung has an MS in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Wisconsin.
Interesting. Where then are the huge increases in costs to homeowners/auto owners originating?
Is inflation basically grift by the issuers of money? If so, AI may be a workaround not welcomed by the grifters.
Dennis L.
One big piece of the total is the reinsurance costs. These generally cover costs above some aggregate level, from any one event. Reinsurers tend to provide coverages for all kinds of aggregates–not just for homeowners. (Private passenger auto doesn’t have much of this problem–its autos tend to be inside garages when hail storms hit, for example.) But a primary insurance company will buy excess aggregate coverage for all of its lines of insurance, wrapped together, including coverage for commercial property, for example.
An aggregate excess cover is badly affected by underlying inflation, however it is caused. If the price of lumber is rising, and the price of steel is rising, this is a problem. If private passenger auto costs are rising because replacement parts are not immediately available, and the insurer must pay for the cost of a rental car, this contributes to the rising costs. If workers doing replacements on homes require higher wages, this affects the aggregate. If more building has been going on in an area along the coast that is subject to storms, this leads to more homes being hit in a single storm. (Also, more homes in an area hit by forest fires, and more downed power lines.) Anyhow, this leveraged effect of aggregates on reinsurers is one of the problems reinsurers face.
Another is that reinsurers generally are badly affected by rising interest rates on their bond portfolios. US primary insurers often can get by with statutory accounting, which does not require immediate “marking to market.” The long and short of it is that reinsurers generally have found their “surpluses” reduced by falling values of bond portfolios.
Anyhow, a good-sized share of the problem is that reinsurers have greatly increased the premiums they are charging for their coverage. At the same time, primary costs have been rising because of broken supply line issues and many other problems. There is also a problem with “coverage creep” – more coverage for mold claims, and new ideas lawyers come up with. It is the combination that primary companies are charging for.
From my own brief reading of the assessment he put together he does not deny climate change, in fact he does….in his judgement Hartgurg and his group the expansion of development and population has a greater impact.
That may be the case.. it is hard to determine…
“It may be tempting to assume that slow, gradual changes in the climate will be experienced and only small differences in premiums will be needed to reflect these changes,” he said. “However, acute physical risks include the frequency of large Cat events, where trends are difficult to identify.”
In addition to pricing, Orr discussed reserving considerations: “What existing chronic or acute weather- and climate-related drivers of insurance claims might be affected by climate change? How will adaptations affect the risks?”
Orr also looked beyond physical risks to liabilities companies might be exposed to, such as failures to adapt, to mitigate physical impacts of climate change, to disclose relevant information and to comply with climate change-related legislation or regulation.
He suggested keeping an eye on the courts for emerging litigation and thinking about what lines of business are most likely to be vulnerable.
Jeff Dunsavage is a senior research analyst at the Insurance Information Institute.
As you have suggested in time past, Gail, studies, like this one and others, can be put together in a manner to show the outcome they desire…who provided the funding for the studies for example?
The war resupply planes are flying in large numbers today.
In New York State, I imagine you are saying. Doesn’t sound good.
yes near Stewart Air Force base.
They have to fight when they still have an edge. The farther it gets, the less advantageous.
Yes, exactly.
Okay okay, geothermal will save us. Gigawatts virtually anywhere. We all move to electric bicycles / electric mopeds for transportation. We can live in bee-hive-like dense structures (pods?) in cities and all the remaining oil goes to agriculture until batteries improve or we figure out an alternative. Pave only absolutely necessary roads for trucking and distribution. Easy peasy.
https://youtu.be/QByk4jJwp9c
The above is slightly in jest, but the more I think about this, the more I think we can extend BAU pretty far (several decades at least), if we had the political and social wherewithal to do so.
I didn’t get all the way through this video, but the analyst seems to be talking about drilling down deep and using that heat to heat homes and businesses in the area. This sounds related to a whole lot like what has sometimes been called “waste heat” from electricity generating plants, using nuclear, coal or natural gas (if it heats a boiler). The heat that they get, besides electricity they are really trying to obtain.
But the US has been very reluctant to use this kind of heat to heat multiple homes. It is harder for homes and businesses to regulate temperatures. Competitive businesses can’t offer this kind of product; it has to be a central utility that sells the heat to everyone in the area. China and Sweden have used this central heat approach, but the US has not.
My grandfather worked at the PPL steam plant which heats the State office buildings and downtown areas in Harrisburg, PA. Plant was originally coal fired then oil before He retired.
I am not an expert and this is opinion only:
The earth generates and radiates heat at a self determined rate. Drilling down and extracting heat changes the rate of heat loss for the core.
My mantra is earth is our spaceship and an extremely well designed one at that. B
Trust:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcJT_E2pu6U
Headline: “As EU plans to use seized Russian funds to buy arms for Ukraine, China moves billions out of Europe.”
Through incredible legal gymnastics we are destroying trust and without trust interactions between people or peoples becomes impossible over any reasonable time period.
It would seem the EU is going to lose incredible liquidity. Debt is trust, Gail has discussed the usefulness of debt.
Interesting times.
Dennis L.
This video is very good. I am afraid this analyst is right. Once we set a precedent of freezing assets of another country, and using interest on those assets for a purpose the other country would not approve of (fighting the Ukraine war, for example), then there is good reason for China and other countries to dump US Treasuries, and other assets that might easily be frozen.
Debt certainly provides liquidity. Once US debt is no longer seen as a safe asset, the ability of the US to offload its debt to those outside the US will disappear. Ouch!
On this regard, we should also think what wealthy Arab people could think about this move.
Those nations are rich of oil and gas, they earned and they are earning much money from that.
They have parked through the years some good money in Europe and US.
They could think that it is not so safe to leave all that money in our banks and funds and additionally they could also think to sell their real estate properties.
Hi student
The Arabs are already gone. Saudi was the main holder of the CoCo bonds they marked to zero in the Credit Suisse debacle. Basically they decided Saudi is rich they can take the loss. With Saudi taking the loss there was no contagion. Looking at it after the fact some peoples analysis was that is what the CoCo bonds were created for. They were a very strange animal and I must admit I dont fully understand their premise.
Not only Saudi but all of OPEC soured on bonds to say the least also noting the Russian asset freezes.
Which is why you see me blabbing incessantly about the mystery foreign buyers that have appeared in the us treasury “auctions”.
SEVEN TRILLION DOLLARS of treasuries rolled over in the first quarter of the year on top of the regular ONE TRILLION DOLLARS of deficit spending every 100 days and a bond had to be sold for every penny.
My argument is there is no longer an organic source that has that amount of dollars around. Not even OPEC, but they are bond sellers not buyers after getting burned in Credit Suisse. So where is the organic productive economy that is creating the kind of surpluses necessary to fund the US government spending? My belief is that the capability of the organic economies to carry the treasury debt do not exist on the planet in surpluses and the funding is coming from synthetic licensees of the “lender of last resort”.
My belief is that 7 trillion coming due reflected any semblance of a “market” falling apart and just buying short term debt two and three years ago. Prior to this they have been able to keep it nice and even billion in short a billion medium a billion long for this exact reason. It’s hard to fathom who has 7 trillion surplus to spare. But that seven trillion got carved up into nice packages of mixed duration by “stellar foreign buyer demand” so that awkward clot won’t be happening again. IMO that beat carve up into perfect duration indicates majority synthetic funding not market. I could be wrong; it could be the higher rates. You got to wonder tho. OPEC is a seller; Japan is a seller. China is a seller. Who exactly are these “foreign buyers” with the cash to soak up 7t of paper?
So don’t worry about value lost because of fidelity concerns from organic industries with surpluses. They are long gone.
OPEC wants to settle in rembini.
I am afraid that you could be right about this issue. There isn’t a buyer out there for all of the US debt. Instead, there is a whole lot of funny financing going on.
Sort of flying beneath the radar .
During the pandemic most corporate entities borrowed all they could. Average maturity date on this debt is 5-7 years.
So over next 2 1/2 years if interest rates don’t drop dramatically all these corporations will not only have to come up more collateral they will also have to pay interest rates that are double what they currently are to refinance.
Interesting point! Quite a few of these corporate entities are barely getting by right now, so this can be a big issue.
I think you’re overly focused on foreign ownership as an issue, because foreign ownership is only a quarter of outstanding debt. Whether the Saudis et al want to buy or not doesn’t matter so much. US federal agencies, pension funds, banks, SS, hold lots of bonds.
I’m not in finance, but it seems to me the core issue is just lack of productivity due to a variety of factors, like offshoring and financialization. If we weren’t FUBAR, there would be buyers.
I agree that the “buyer of last resort” will (does) monetize and more janky government programs will be created to prop up asset prices when the time comes.
The foreign buyers are the buyer of last resort.
Sure 3/4 of the bonds are held by the old school shenanigans. Some even by legitimate pockets of cash pension funds and such. But that’s it. There is no more. And the old school shenanigans can’t soak them up without the monetization being obvious. So the books get moved to jurisdictions where they can’t be seen.
Could I be wrong, sure. I say the cash is not there from any real foreign buyer. It does not exist.
Even a decade ago organic economies could carry a good part of the load. There have always been shenanigans. A treasury auction is basically the mother of all shenanigans, but there was a portion of legitimate organic surplus.
If you look at a model for a bank. It holds treasuries say a billion. Then it creates say 30 billion from nothing in loans into the organic economy. It’s those loans that pay the banks expenses. The treasuries are more or less dead weight. For the bank to carry that load it needs just say 30x the equity out in loans to a organic economy to make it.
So as the debt expands the organic economy has to expand many multiples more. It just ain’t there brother. It doesn’t exist.
So more and more shenanigans. Less and less real economy. Until the point where they are worried they will lose China’s puny 3/4 T of real economy treasuries. Oh they will get bought. There’s zero doubt of that. But that 3/4T is a significant portion of the real economy portion now. The soup becomes all water no beans. The customers go this soup sucks.
POOF
And every 100 days another trillion they have buy with shenanigans
The existing debt constantly rolling over they have to buy with shenanigans.
I’ll tell you what. You watch that foreign owned percentage. If it doesnt rise we will say I’m full of it. But I’m not. You know why?
Infinite debt
Finite world
And the monkey business is coming home to daddy now not the future. That’s why the real foreign buyers not the fake ones are heading for the exit not paying for admission.
Yeah, the foreign buyers are the buyers of last resort because they soak up the trade deficit, exchanging their real goods for paper.
This process can extend infefinitely, just add another zero to asset prices and balances.
When the process reverses and foreigners seek real goods for their accumulation it’s the equivalent of Buffet’s tide going out
One of the interesting hidden predicaments is going to be with “covered bonds” a class of offshore funding for Australian and NZ banks secured against mortgage titles of borrowers. Legislation has enabled banks to cover their offshore loans with borrowers’ titles which in turn subordinates depositors. Because of the great love affair of antipodians towards geared property, when the great slurp arrives and it all gets sucked to the Caymens, depositors beyond govt guarantee balances are going to find themselves straitened, to say the least
it’s gonna be fun
The ‘money’, or should I say zeros on computer screens is essentially worthless now, the problems start when everyone realises they are worthless.
Goods and services have to keep growing world wide to keep the charade going. Infinite growth on a finite planet, what could possibly go wrong?
What happens when we don’t have the energy to make more goods and services every year? The gig is up and the house of cards colla.pses…
“the problems start when everyone realises they are worthless.”
No one wants to realize it. We live in a world of fictions this why such magic becomes possible. Extend and pretend are to stay. I am afraid denial is the driving force behind many things in this world.
The country’s sovereign wealth fund reported in securities filings a 41% drop in the size of its U.S. stock portfolio in the first quarter. It jettisoned roughly $15 billion of shares, including big holdings in names such as entertainment company Live Nation, Carnival Cruise Line and Facebook parent Meta.14 hours ago
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-05-24-2024/card/saudi-arabia-slashes-u-s-stock-holdings-by-15-billion-YEAossKqEm8QAZcFLxZv
The six largest financial centers – the UK (actually the City of London), Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, and Ireland – reduced their holdings a little in October, after the record in August, to $2.22 trillion
These countries specialize in handling and often obscuring the financial holdings of global companies, individuals, and governments. Ireland is a favorite for US companies to store their profits:
UK: $693 billion
Luxembourg: $345 billion
Cayman Islands: $324 billion
Ireland: $299 billion
Belgium (home of Euroclear): $285 billion
Switzerland: $276 billion.
All these countries have a laxed banking system . Maybe the FED is buying thru it’s own ‘ black’ accounts .
Indeed, I think some of these offshore vehicles mask direct debt monetization.
Hi Blastfromthepast, too semplicstic.
Maybe gone from US, but not from EU.
Then you should also consider that Credit Suisse is Switzerland, which is not EU at all.
Saudi is one thing, but there also others.
Qatari funds are much present in EU, expecially in real estate.
In my view if EU sizes Russian assets, it will cut its own feet, if not also something else.
The City of London and the Cayman Islands aren’t in the EU either. The Caymans are still part of the worldwide money laundry. According to some experts, the City replaced the Empire which didn’t really fade away at all.
The City’s legally a state within a state. It’s outside the jurisdiction of the elected Greater London Authority or its predecessors, e.g. the London County Council. Nicholas Shaxson wrote a book ‘The Finance Curse’ on the process by which FIRE (‘finance, insurance and real estate’) took over from ‘real work’.
At least half the world’s tax havens have King Charles III as head of state. By and large, the dirtier the money the further away it’s located from the City. The City itself stinks so the other places must be worse than raw sewage.
On purpose.
https://activerain-store.s3.amazonaws.com/image_store/uploads/agents/ericcrane/files/History%20of%20Reserve%20Currencies.png
I remember seeing the dates, but I don’t remember seeing this kind of chart before.
China has the benefit of watching Russia’s mistakes. When the USSR collapsed, China got a clear view of what not to do / how not to follow US diktats for economic policy. Now, China gets a clear view of what the Western alliance will do with your central bank reserves during conflict. Russia is like a stubborn kid that learns only through error, while China learns through observing others.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-dumping-us-debt-at-record-levels/
The caption says it all: “Loan me $100 so I can buy bullets to shoot you!”. Politicians rarely deal with reality or think things thru. They’re just looking to get reelected.
Everyone misses the obvious question. Or to be more correct avoids asking it.. “China is dumping US debt they are the largest holder”
China only holds 3/4 of a T.
75 days of US deficit spending.
Every penny they dump has to be held by somebody.
Who is buying these bonds?
Someone holds 43T worth.
Who?
Why does 75 days worth matter?
Why does 3/4 T matter?
If China is worried about a puny 3/4T why is whomever holds 43T not worried?
There is a danger of the debt house of cards coming down.
We are watching the complete collapse of the so-called American Ideals, promoted by misguided useful idiots such as Lincoln, Roosevelt (both of them) and Woodrow Wilson.
In retrospect it was wrong, wrong and wrong ‘for USA to get into other country’s problems, something the founding fathers did warn about.
.
The “American way of life’ can only be supported with the resources USA used to have, circa 1950. It could not work anywhere else and should not have been exported.
Every foreign project USA touched, except maybe tiny Grenada, has turned into shit.
I found this site full of inadvisable fake-news links
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/fake-news/
for example:
https://dailystormer.in/
Funnily enough, a “mainstream” site foxnews.com was also on there.
And strangely, givesendgo.com was on there. I’m guessing they don’t ban conservative-cause payments.
I have found this site to be somewhat useful, but also left leaning biased. I would say its only somewhat accurate. It at least gives you a sense of how to perceive the information source.
You’re joking? I was joking. I’m actually going down the list for potential sources of entertainment.
Ah, it all makes sense now.
No kidding .
With the stock price of Nvidia (NVDA) now trading at over U$1,000 per share, Nvidia stock has been up 270,000% since it went public. If you bought 1000 shares of Nvidia at its going public time – in 1999 – for a mere U$376 and held them until today, … you are now a millionaire! A few numbers to help you better appreciate Nvidia’s meteoric rise:
– Nvidia is now larger than the entire German stock market, and five times the size of companies like Walmart, Exxon, and Visa!
– Nvidia posted quarterly revenue of U$26 billion, up 18% from last quarter and a whopping 262% from a year ago. – Its data center revenue is up 427% from a year ago.
– The aggregate market cap of the 174 smallest S&P 500 stocks is equal to that of Nvidia.
– Its market cap is greater than the GDP of every state except California and Texas.
… all true if reported correctly by Nvidia.
Nvidia trades at 32 times sales and 52 times book value.
In the aftermath of the “dot-com” bubble, Scott McNealy, then CEO of Sun Microsystems asked “What were you thinking?” of investors who had paid 10 times sales for shares of the company.
AI is hawt right now. I wonder how people will feel about it in a year’s time. Also, check out all the Chinese warships surrounding Taiwan.
In 2000, Palm was worth more than Apple, Nvidia & Amazon combined .
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1793820519696892150/photo/1
New tariffs on China. Batteries notable.
https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/05.13.2024%20Four%20Year%20Review%20of%20China%20Tech%20Transfer%20Section%20301%20(Final)%20rev.pdf
When it is 80 degrees outside, it is 90 to 100 in the classrooms. When it is 90 degrees outside, it is 100 to 105 degrees in the classrooms,” the petition read. “This extreme heat in our building has caused our children to pass out and miss classes due to dehydration-related headaches.”
Schools that never needed AC are now overheating. Fixes will cost billions.
As heat waves creep north, they are baking schools that previously did not need air conditioning. Fixing the problem will be neither cheap, nor easy.
Nearly 40 percent of schools in the United States were built before the 1970s, when temperatures were cooler and fewer buildings needed air conditioning.
That has changed. In recent decades, heat has crept northward, increasing the number of school days with temperatures above 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
,…more than 13,700 public schools in the United States. that did not need air conditioning in 1970 need it today. Some have already installed it, some are working on it now and some can only dream of having enough money. The estimated cost of this huge investment exceeds $40 billion.
Colorado has experienced its greatest warming, with temperatures rising by 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980-2022, according to a state report.
….Yet to the chagrin of environmentalists, large school districts in cities such as New York City, Boston and Philadelphia are buying thousands of window units, which gobble up electricity and break down easily.
“They’re a maintenance nightmare. They’re an operating cost nightmare,” said Sara Ross, co-founder of the group UndauntedK12, which advocates for green building improvements in schools. “The decision to use window units is only going to worsen these districts’ challenges in terms of their emissions because they’re using much more energy.”
Washington Post
In 1970, the school year ran from after Labor Day until Memorial Day. Schools let out then so kids could help work in the fields, under the hot son. Not many homes had air conditioning–also not schools.
Now it is the fashion to try to run year-around schools, with many one week breaks. This way it is hoped that children will not forget so much as over the summer vacation. But the long school year means that it is warmer in school, in the heat of summer. Many of the homes in the Northeast do not have air conditioning, or they just have window units.
We don’t really have electricity to operate air conditioners for a whole lot more schools. Adding intermittent renewables has very much degraded the electrical system. This is a huge issue, in the US Northeast, which is what this article is talking about.
Kids today on average carry around pounds of excess personal insulation (also known as fat) and hydrate with caffeinated water. Let them suffer till they work it out.
China has large reductions in dollar transactions but there is little effect on overall dollar transactions. US government best get to spending more dollars into existence for the world to use. Nice work if you can get it.”I call first spend”.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Hinrich-Foundation_Future-of-Tra.jpg?itok=dqHvFEj7
This is the zero hedge article that the chart is from:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/start-de-dollarization-chinas-move-away-usd
The Start Of De-Dollarization: China’s Move Away From The USD
There are several currencies used. The chart compares US$ and China’s currency.
China’s economy is imploding! There are no good guys and bad guys… try not to get sucked into the group think on here … there are a lot of people that are just old fashioned in their thinking
>> China’s economy is imploding!
I’m not convinced that it is. Time will tell. Hard to get reliable data out of there. Transitioning away from real-estate as savings will be a bumpy road, but better than sticking with it.
I don’t think China’s economy is imploding as well. OTOH, it’s not as rosy as it is made out to be. Their bustling economy was fueled by massive debt levels, which they learned quite well from us Yanks.
So they gave the world the illusion that they were an economic juggernaut while they took a page out of the US Gov’ts playbook by building a “bridge to nowhere” and multiplying that by a factor of 50.
So now they have ghost cities and ghost factories and those that bought real estate have realized this. Yes, China will be hurt and wobble a bit but they have what the USA no longer has and that’s a manufacturing engine. They still sell stuff to the world, something you need to have if you want a lasting economy.
Agree. They are deleveraging and abandoning failed models. That’s always hard but healthy.
If they are imploding why did Yellen just go over and ask them to slow down?
It will be interesting to see what comes of this economic partnership with Russia. What sort of hybrid did they cook up?
Theres a whole region in between the two around the Caspian that is way behind the times that could be developed.
Like you said there are no good guys and bad guys. There are winners and losers.
It is weakening, yes. Gail has the same position as well. I spoke to several chinese in the last 6 weeks, there is no doubt. consumption patterns have changed for example.
Yes they are
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense/id1506469669?i=1000656627706
No FF, no ‘lasting economy’?
Below, I discussed a recent read, The Great Reckoning by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg 1991. In the introduction were acknowledgements to various friends and others who were recognised for their contributions among whom I recognised a few names – Bill Bonner (who’s Daily Reckoning publishing empire conceivably could have connections), Jim Rogers and Dr Marc Faber. I hadn’t heard of anything from Faber for some years as his output had all gone video, but from curiosity, had a search to see what he was doing these days. He is an old China hand who I understand made his fortune in HK, and he had a few comments on Western media narrative about China
This interview transcript is from a couple of months ago:
I always consider myself having been a broker to be a useless character. But when I look at the media people that is I mean, that the high point of uselessness, and they are all negative about China. Anything China does anything Hong Kong does is always negative, not taking into account that the securities laws were introduced, largely because of the demonstrations in Hong Kong, which were organized by the American State Department, the CIA and so forth and so on, and paid for and supplied with uniforms, and all kinds of equipment to create an embarrassment for China. That was the ambition and the Chinese reacted blah If anyone else would react, they kind of got rid of this artificial in quotation marks NGOs that are nothing else but an extension of the arm of the CIA and the American State Department.
myworstinvestmentever.com/ep774-marc-faber-the-value-of-true-diversification/
“So what are the advantages of owning a reserve currency? You get to borrow in your own currency – but then, so do other countries (again, this comes down to your reliability, not your currency’s special status). And there’s nothing in the data suggesting that you can borrow more cheaply than other safe borrowers.
What you’re left with, basically, is seigniorage – the fact that some people outside your country hold your currency, which means that, in effect, America gets a zero-interest loan corresponding to the stash of dollar bills (or $100 bills mainly) held in the hoards of tax evaders and drug dealers around the world. In normal times, this privilege is worth something like $20 billion to $30 billion a year; that’s not a tiny number, but it’s only a small fraction of 1 percent of America’s gross domestic product.
The point is that while reserve-currency status may be politically symbolic, it’s essentially irrelevant as an economic goal – and it’s definitely not worth distorting policy to achieve.”?
https://truthout.org/articles/what-does-the-us-gain-from-the-dollar-s-special-role/
It’s waaaay more than just a bit of cash that finds its way offshore. The “benefit” also includes generations of accumulated trade deficits retained offshore as trillions in treasury bonds and used in trade between third parties and not redeemed for value in real goods. Imagine Vietnam trying to buy oil with its Dong!
And surely there must be some benefit in the eurodollar commercial loans market
I looked at the mainstream links that Gail provided about covid and a milder set of rebukes could not be put together. the effects are inevitably “rare”, the vaccine causes myocarditis but not sudden death (you gotta be pulling my leg), and excess mortality is not discussed at all. They are doing limited hangout. Tonight I will see if Yandex can do better.
https://drtrozzi.org/2023/09/28/1000-peer-reviewed-articles-on-vaccine-injuries/
Wow!
I wonder how bad the sinopharm is in comparison?
From what I have read its actually a vaccine.
Chemically inactivated spike protein.
Easy peasy
Why all the quasi gene therapy lipid nanoparticles and who knows?
Unknown proteins created.
Unknown dosage created.
Excuse to get MRNA tech approved when they couldn’t before?
I am starting to regret not having vaccinated. With that kind of material and a decent attorney, how much could you extract from your employer in a lawsuit?
Maybe it is a coincidence, but all the people that my family know that have completed the 4 cycles of Covid vaccinations
(officially)-requested in Italy,
are not here with us any more.
So we would not have the pleasure to hear your sharp comments in this blog any more
It was tongue in cheek of course. But I think people do not protect themselves adequately against vaccines, meaning they could decrease the probability of injury. Vitamins C and D, adequate hydration, rest, and IMHO two days of fast to really prime the immune system to quickly eliminate foreign substances. There are also herbal teas. One is not as defenseless as it is generally thought.
Would that provide 100% protection? Probably not. My mother got 3 and, at 91, is energetic as always. WRT getting the vaccine for the purpose of suing your employer, it then becomes a risk benefit calculation. But I do not know how to precisely calculate it, and most definitely I expected the vaccine to be more lethal, so this is just wondering out loud using 20/20 hindsight.
SPR has some insights about excess mortality here https://swprs.org/global-excess-mortality-update/
Interesting! I think some of his examples are hard to interpret. Germany death rates seem to be rising, quite a bit. What is going on, for example?
The point that flu/Covid go with heart deaths is interesting. It goes with the point that is often made the death rates are generally higher in winter, for both.
BAU Lite is in sight!
When the demand for FF’s start to drop – they’ll say it’s from the switch to ev’s and renewables.
In reality we might not even need these things in the near term future. And its like what FE used to say, “we build ski slopes and useless crap”. So it will give people something to do and jobs and feeling they are doing something noble and good for the planet.
So, it doesn’t really matter how well they work. What matters is people seeing EV’s on the road and solar panels/wind systems being installed all over.
So basically, in a nutshell what will happen is the hubert curves will be flattened. Instead of going down a bell curve the same way it went up. The demand will be way lower, and production will have to come slightly down every year (OPEC CUTS) for example, to compensate. This will create sorta sea-saw plateau that should last a really, long time. And if demand starts to increase from the current pace in the following year. They can increase production with the oil they saved from the prior years, cuts.
And this is genius because nobody will be able to figure it out. Since you would have to accept limits to growth and peak oil. And let’s be honest, ALMOST NOBODY can.
And they can claim we are lowering carbon emissions and crediting the technology.
So, Tech saves the world built by humans etc.
How long this downslope lasts is the question. Does Europe get cut out early on? Does the US get cut out early on? I expect that if there is energy that is easy to dissipate, it likely will be dissipated.
But the system could change remarkably, to make this happen. Governments could change. The outlines of countries could become smaller. For example, the EU could fall apart. Or the US central government could fail leaving the state governments, and they could regroup into smaller units. The same thing could happen in Europe.
Europe and US are too big to fail ie (without bringing down the global ship).
“How long does the downslope last?”
Who knows? Likely longer than me or you.
Think of it like a group of ten people going up a gigantic hill and getting on lazy river rafts. That are going downhill but at a snails pace traversing. And eventually our rafts will mostly level out. And there’s no end to our journey, spiritually speaking. And we won’t have to use all the energy it took get up the hill anymore, because we have moved beyond the “boom/build” & “bust/rebuild” models guiding our societies which are wasteful.
Perhaps a better term would be “BAU FLOAT”.
just my 2 pennies.
Well that’s a hopeful message. I like it!
There is nothing as BAU lite , just like there is nothing like ” a little bit pregnant ” . 😊
Where is FE? It’s as if ‘move to W. Australia’, or wherever he said he was going, was code for ‘disappear from the internet’. I’ve not seen comments from him on other forums.
Other people have seen comments from him, on topics he would likely write about. Perhaps he is busy with other things. Commenters come and go.
I’ve seen a few comments from him elsewhere. Here:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-end-of-science-as-a-useful-tool/comments
“So basically, in a nutshell what will happen is the hubert curves will be flattened. Instead of going down a bell curve the same way it went up. The demand will be way lower, and production will have to come slightly down every year (OPEC CUTS) for example, to compensate. This will create sorta sea-saw plateau that should last a really, long time.”
Renewables with the exception of nuclear are not up to the task of making up for the cuts in fossil fuel production. If carbon dioxide emissions were to be slashed by 10% every year, this could not be replaced with electricity from renewables unless we started building a lot of new nuclear power plants. It won’t work. People will notice.
The covid lockdowns were much more effective at flattening the energy depletion curve than building solar panels and Telsas.
“And this is genius because nobody will be able to figure it out.”
Not talking about a topic that universally makes everyone uncomfortable is not genius. It is self-deception. The msm and academia have talked very little about fossil fuel depletion in recent years. It’s a huge taboo. It’s a universal taboo.
I agree that covid lockdowns did a great deal to help reduce oil consumption. Even today, many more people are working from their homes. (This is great for people who cannot drive!) Many older people travel outside their homes less–watch religious services on television and order their groceries delivered to their homes.
You are right that fossil fuel depletion is a big taboo.
So is the fact that many minerals are in quite a depleted state–concentrations of the desired minerals are much lower than they were 100 years ago, for example.
Also, we have severe shortage of water relative to our current high population in many parts of the world. Furthermore, it is our high population that makes fossil fuel depletion a big problem.
The narrative must be given that there is a happily ever after world ahead.
This war between the Western Powers and Putin’s Friends is a war between those who value Civilization and the Eastern Despotism.
From 1725 to 1917, with a brief exception which I will describe below, Russia was ruled by Westerners, after Peter the Great decided Russians were not Westerners.
In an unprecedented move, he made his second wife Catherine the Czarina.
Her origin is unclear. She was Polish speaking, but could have been an Estonian or Latvian. Whatever her origins were, she was part of the Western Civilization, and was born within the Hajnal line.
At her death, 1727, the throne was to pass to her daughter Elizabeth, but the boyars launched a coup and put a boy named Pyotr, who was said to be the son of Peter’s executed son Alexei.
Pyotr II reversed every reform Peter and Catharine did, and made Russia return back to the old ways.
In 1730 Pyotr II was poisoned to death because the boyars did not like Yuri Dolgoruky, who was the actual power behind the Czar and wanted to become one himself. (There was a precedent – Vasily Shuisky, a sidekick of Boris Godunov, did become Czar until he was killed by the Vasa dynasty who ruled Sweden and Poland). The boyars installed two more weak Czars who held no power, until in 1741 Elizabeth gained enough power to overthrow all of them.
Ever Czar since then until 1917 was German, part of Western Civilization.
Before Peter, Russia had very little to do with the West, and since its monarch and many of the ministers, such as Sergei Witte, were Germans the West thought Russia was Western.
It is now showing its true Eastern face now, proving that if you scratch a Russian you get a Tatar. And those who cheer for Russia will realize the joys of being ruled by the Tatars.
It’s so wonderful that these guys, Biden, Cameron, Sunak, Annalena, Ursula, Macron are fighting against despotism. A more selfless, illuminated, democratic bunch I could not put together myself.
They are not exactly the nicest people but if we get rid of them we get Eastern Despotism.
There is no case that I know of where being governed by intellectual midgets is better than being governed by intellectually developed men.
I have written many times that the so-called middle classes, incl. Lower Middle Class and Upper Middle Class, will be destroyed in the so called advanced countries, which won’t be that advanced after the Crunch.
It is clear that what we call “Democracy” does not work in today’s complex society. People who cannot tell left from right should not have been given the right to vote.
If any kind of democracy continues, only those with a stake in society, those who are, say, in the top 15% of income/property and can prove it, will be given the right to vote. A bit like the ancient Greece where only the ‘citizens’ could vote, and the helots, who were like the manual workers, had no say on the governance.
The suffragettes who fought for women’s vote did NOT expect the maids, the prostitutes and the restaurant workers to vote. They fought for women who were in the upper middle class circle like themselves. Few feminists gave a rat’s ass about the plight of lower class women.
Taking off the rights of those who have no stake on civilization will probably be the first step on restoring civilization.
Democracy also doesn’t work when there isn’t enough energy to go around.
Any type of government is more likely to fail, with inadequate energy supplies.
It takes a lot of energy to have representative government of any kind. These people have to take time off from work and travel to a central location.
There is a reason why countries have tended to be small. With limited resources, it is hard to govern more than a small area.
Didn’t the US Founding Fathers recognize this, which is why only productive citizens who had skin in the game i.e., homesowners, businesses, farms, or who paid taxes or even a poll tax should be allowed to vote?
Once you deviate from this principle, you have “Democracy” which is essentially mob rule or more ominously, producers vs parasites.
A central bank that prints unbacked fiat currency enables the politicians to pay (through the issuance of debt that will always magically be paid back later thru economic “growth” ) for the promises they make in exchange for votes.
This actually accelerates the destruction of a country.
The 19th amendment didn’t help matters either but that is a discussion for another day.
It was the world wars.
The government threw away voting rights to people who have no business on governance, to quiet them down, and that’s what we got after a century of letting everyone participate.
Regarding the 19th amendment, only women should vote for a generation until the downstream effects manifest and they absolutely demand the 19th be abolished.
So, only the AIs vote?
Assuming BAU continues, yes.
Recently, I had to stop the cooperation with a US based company: their lawyers added new and new conditions into the contract while my wages went down. This way the rising complexity and the misunderstanding of the energy issues and the ageing of the populations (aged Europe Vs younger US) breaks the world apart.
I don’t think you have been to US recently.
Younger US? More like a younger polyglot country, like Brazil.
In Europe, the ‘new arrivals’ still tend to live apart from the majority, not shaking the social order too much. In USA that is no longer the case.
A lot of “Americans” are not really Americans. For them the US citizenship is just a tool of convenience, and when things go south in USA, they will simply go back to where they came from.
In large part, the US is younger because of the many immigrants and their larger families. Many of these immigrants are mixed in with the “regular” population. I know that my own neighborhood includes people from Mexico, Pakistan, India, Brazil, and South Vietnam, and a fair number of Black people, for example. I am sure that the schools are similarly mixed.
I agree that the complexity of the US is expressed in all of the legal issues that seem to be added in the US. This makes the US hard to work with.
I suspect the carbon footprint of WW3 will be large but carbon footprint afterwards will be minimal to non existent. So it’s got that going for it.
We can hope not, but you may be right.
The fact is that there are constraints to WW3. They can not go all out or risk their society getting paralyzed by fuel restrictions. The USA already withdrew from Afghanistan on its own after all.
Your probably right.
i don’t think there’s enough carbon for WW3.
Book review time
The Great Reckoning by James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg 1991
Although an overlong volume at 550pp, it was a stimulating read recommended by our very own Kulmie; its unintended theme an illustration of the fallacies of prophecy.
The initial hundred or so pages were a novel interpretation of political history from the renaissance with a focus on the role of innovation in change, such as the introduction of gunpowder in warfare, cycles of empire and power, social structuring and the virtue in today’s times of having no morals and proper financial advice to take advantage of any opportunity.
The work is a time capsule of the days of president CIA Bush, the Iraq-Kuwaiti War and the end of the Showa bubble in Japan. Those of us who remember those pre-Clintonian days, will recall how they were characterised by distressed asset prices after a decade of falling interest rates, and in retrospect were an excellent time for buying on leverage. Pessimism abounded. Lord Ree-s Mogg and his co-author (amanuensis?) were purveyors of financial prediction to the ultra HNW, and the bulk of the work is to promote their power of intellect and understanding of their times through fear.
Empty pocketed, well almost, my personal interest in the book was largely sustained because I’m a deflationisto, to which this book is a classic paean, whether by philosophic basis as is my case because of an irrational desire to see fulfilled “fantasies of justice, vengeance and a purified world,” to quote Xabier; or because in those times it could more readily generate the kaching kaching from wealthy suckers. Without pause, the storyline segues from the past to the Great Depression of the 1990s and the emergence of Japan as the planet’s hegemonic superpower.
Yet the consequences of urban bankruptcy will not be all bad. The condescending intellectual fashion of holding black to lower standards of behaviour will fade in the 1990s, as bankrupt ideas tend to do. Anyone notice this happen? The 13 percent of affluent black families will come to have their accomplishments appreciated as more evidence of their own individual effort, rather than the tarnished trophies of entitlement.
Our Lord goes on to mock the abilities of central banks to print money which causes inflation, and completely misses the possibility of doing so and handing it all to billionaires who cannot possibly spend on tangible goods any more than they’re already spending. Likewise, he doesn’t even mention the possibility that the dragon of China could awaken …
There’s surely one thing sweeter than “I told you so” and regarding the Great Depression of the 1990s,
that’s “You were completely wrong”
I remember the 1990s as the era of
1. Collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union (extended low oil prices, among other things). Soviet Union could not make debt payments.
2. Collapse of debt bubble holding up Japanese real estate values, and investments in general.
3. Continuation of US savings and loan crisis. Interest rates had risen. Too many loans were on the books at low interest rates, causing value of outstanding mortgages to fall.
4. Continuation of flight of insurance companies from traditional multiline insurers, to new smaller insurers, some of them offshore. Impetus was higher investment rates that new companies could get on new bonds, making their cost of longer-term coverage cheaper. Multiline insurers were stuck with many low yielding long-term bonds on their books, which they could not sell without badly reducing their “policyholders’ surplus,” which determined how much insurance they could sell.
Interest rates had risen in the 1970s, up until 1981, but it took quite a while for the full effect to flow through to the rest of the economy. We are now in a period of higher interest rates, again, making this era somewhat like the 1990s.
For a while, the central planning of Japan seemed to work. Everyone thought that Japan’s approach was the “way to go.” Part of Japan’s problem, however, was a lack of fossil fuels. It could get electricity from nuclear, but this didn’t solve all of its problems. The government of Japan had to issue more and more debt to try to get out from its problems. But the central bank of Japan couldn’t print low-priced oil or coal.
I was grateful for your earlier differentiation between Govt bonds and the corporates that insurance portfolios tend to hold, Gail. I’ve always regarded bonds as a single species rather than the separate species within a genus. A glance at USgovt10yr chart 1980-2000 shows a more or less unbroken down trend, though as I recall 1994 was a challenging reversion year with major investment damage in both govt bonds and stocks.
The looting of Russia over the 1990s certainly must have felt like a great depression from within, as Dimitri Orlov graphically portrayed at the time.
Japan took the innovative step of inventing “extend and pretend” by closing their eyes to bank insolvency and capitalizing interest on non-performing loans. This crimped new loan issuance and left the economy moribund – which it largely still is. No doubt in this process, energy constrains played a role.
My recollection of what happened in the US during this decade was a practice run for mid 2000s NINJA loan extravaganza, the earlier exercise involving S&L and emerging market debt (inc to Russian govt) which all blew up in two waves near the end of the decade.
Locally, I was burgled twice, 1990 and 1992, muggings occurred on the street (not me) and it felt like the place was rapidly going Detroit … selling pessimism was a no brainer. Today with gentrification it’s all become very very swish and the change is quite a wonder to behold
All those luxury condos are going to need upkeep.
We will see if the investment banks and commercial developers who own these gentrified properties will be able to charge enough rent to cover inflation AND make a profit.
He did get quite a few things right, though.
For example he predicted the rise of Trump. He mentioned an unnamed rich man would gain everything. Lord Rees-Mogg probably did not think it was proper to mention the name of a Bavarian draft dodger’s grandson, but he did say that the person was a self promoter who liked to put his name everywhere, which , in early 1990s, only meant Trump.
Wasn’t that Nostradamus’ prediction?
People who take statin drugs can’t make vitamin D as well.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/statin-drugs-laid-the-groundwork-for-covid-19-post-5639933
Statin Drugs Laid the Groundwork for COVID-19
Statins are pure poison, and the “high cholesterol problem” (completely debunked by now) was just a “scientific” fiction created to promote this poison. There’s lots of info on the subject, even in the MSM. No excuse for doctors to continue prescribing this poison (other than the fact of being the brainless puppets of big pharma, and princely paid for that).
But this is just the same old MO of big pharmafia, whose business model heavily depends on fabricating its own clients.
My dad cut back on them because they caused peripheral neuropathy.
“If you have been told that you must take statins or risk a devastating heart attack or stroke, you need to read this book. Dr Kendrick, a well-known statin sceptic and author of the bestselling The Great Cholesterol Con, has returned to the diet-heart-cholesterol battlefield to warn that people are being conned.”?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Statin-Nation-Damaging-Post-Health-Post-health/dp/1786068257
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/statin-nation-the-documentary/
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/author/drmalcolmkendrick/
Dr. Kendrick’s most recent book, The Clot Thickens, on the various ways in which we progressively mess up our vascular system, is a good read too. I enjoy his way of making medical science understandable to the non-specialist, something he does with a good deal of humor.
“Vitamin D Supplements Are Rat Poison”?
https://robynopenshaw.substack.com/p/vitamin-d-supplements-are-rat-poison
it is sheep fat irradiated with 350nm light. How is that rat poison?
Dcon is apparantly D3 now
Read Vitamin K2 and the Calcium Paradox by Kate Rheaume-Bleue. Vitamins A, D and K2 are the vitamins responsible for directing all vitamin metabolism in the body. Without these key vitamins the absorption of water soluble vitamins is impaired. Still catching a cold after taking vitamin c? Take cod liver oil and k2 supplements for good effect. Remember cod liver oil? There is wisdom in old remedies.
Gail, thanks for this excellent article. The previous had left me wondering somewhat whether OFW may not be becoming a ZH echo chamber …
My only comment about this is that the use of matching colours on figures 8 and 9 for the same sectors would have clarified the point considerably, particularly with respect to the negligible value of electricity in transportation. It continues to puzzle me, however, how such obvious and valuable logic expressed so well is dismissed peremporily by others in a position to actually effect change. Woe is us, etc; but thank you for your efforts and buddha willing, may they not be futile
I found the presentation slides pdf much more interesting. The analogy between appetite and promises made by the financial system is wonderfully apposite. I was somewhat curious about the reason for the apparently anomolous lift in the standard of living increase in the 2010 bar on p19. Did this result from China’s entry to the WTO? If so, it was an extraordinary impact. My takeaway from the slides set is that actuaries’ pricing will have to include a significant risk calculation that the future may not be BAU
Hi moss,
China is no more or less than a composition of letters than WTO, BAU and/or FUCK.
Choose #9 if you want to check in.
HT, China will tolerate the West till it can and then it will not just like Russia . The panther avoids a fight with a tiger and flees but once it runs out of breath and turns around the tiger better watch out . An experienced hunter in Kumaoen ( border between India/ Nepal) where the max tigers are , gave me this titbit .
Thanks for your comments.
Sorry about the colors on Figures 8 and 9. I didn’t use the same order for the names of the sectors in the two slides, so the colors are different. I didn’t think about the need to use the same order.
Adding China to the World Trade Organization in December 2001 greatly helped the world economy, at least for a while. Since I used “10 Years Ended” periods, that period ended 2010 was very much helped. But by 2013, China’s coal production had flattened, and in 2022, prices were spiking to high levels. China and many other places were having economic difficulties by 2020, even apart from Covid.
I didn’t think it would be feasible to write up the presentation–it is too long and complex. Some of the slides will look familiar.
The future doesn’t look like it will be BAU, you are right.
The elders are creative they will think of something such as introduction of universal basic income that will keep high energy prices to stay elevated
Think about it AI displaces many workers those workers are then given a ubi that is a shot in the arm for growth bau will continue
Adonis , what can the workers buy with UBI if the shelves are empty . ?
Wait and see
”wait and see” means—i dont have the faintest idea
Perhaps Adonis means people with UBI will have to wait and see what happens if the shelves are empty. I imagine they may have to wait a long time.
When there isn’t enough stuff to go round, it can be rationed based on an individual quota—such as 50 grams of dark chocolate per week for Davidinanineteeneightyfourdistopia—or it can be rationed based on price.
The scenario will come down to full pockets and empty shelves or empty pockets and full shelves. Either way, shortages of any type of goods will leave consumers short of those particular types of goods—unless people can find a way of emulating what Jesus did with those five loaves and two fishes.
money doesnt support energy
energy supports money
so a universal basic income will not in the ultimate sense ”support” anyone or anything.
it might work in the very short term
You might just as well print money on rolls and hang it in public toilets–then tear it off as needed…… it will have the same end-value, and end – use.
ubi can never stimulate growth, because growth requires energy input–you cant get that with coulored bits of paper or plastic.
Printing money and just handing it out will bring certain collapse.
but norm wont ubi cause more dollars to demand more supply therefore with limited supply inflation goes up resulting in higher oil price 150 dollar a barrel oil and then viola this high price for oil if it sticks around long enough causes uneconomic oil to become economic oil.
Remember there could be another trillion barrels of oil which could be extracted at150 dollars a barrel think antarctica the russians found 511 billion barrels in british territory of antarctica only recently this buys us more time for transition to green economy and transition to starship it just could be the best way to find another virgin earth for even more population growth the skys the limit norm.
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This is good. A shitload of work Gail. A remarkable oases on a pentagon of trifectas. No one ever pulled one stick out of your mental dome. If you’re not proud of that, well, at least i am.
From the Wall of Sound, to the Wall of Worries, to the Table of Consequences.
A beautiful deleveraging.
Glad you like my post. You might look at my presentation, too. It is somewhat different. https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Tverberg-Beware-the-Economy-Is-Beginning-to-Shrink-May-8-2024-1.pdf
Thanks Gail. I won’t. I don’t like shrimps with my oysters. I can feel the facts in every day life, like a beaten dog on cheap food. No God, no Money. Not in that order.
Brain quantity is no guarantee for succes. The rest succumbs somewhere between facts & fiction.
How was this received? I would imagine it to be quite jarring to someone not expecting an “everything is going to collapse, only precisely when and how is unknown”.