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Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers.
The United States started moving industry offshore in 1974 (Figure 1) in response to spiking oil prices in 1973-1974 (Figure 2).
Industry is based on the use of fossil fuels. Electricity also plays a role, but it is more like the icing on the cake than the basis of industrial production. Industry is polluting in many ways, so it was an “easy sell” to move industry offshore. But now the United States is realizing that it needs to re-industrialize. At the same time, we are being told about the need to transition the entire economy to electricity to prevent climate change.
In this post, I will try to explain the situation–how fossil fuel prices have spiked many times, including 1973-1974 (oil) and more recently (coal in 2022). I will also discuss the key role fossil fuels play. Because of the key role of fossil fuels, a reduction in per-capita fossil fuel consumption likely leads to a transition to fewer goods and services, on average, per person. A transition to all electricity does not seem to be feasible. Instead, we seem to be headed for increased geopolitical conflict and the possibility of a financial crash seems greater.
[1] When fossil fuel supplies become constrained, prices tend to spike to high levels, and then fall back again.
Economists and energy analysts have tended to assume that fossil fuel prices would rise to very high levels, allowing extraction of huge amounts of difficult-to-extract fossil fuels. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the past has shown forecasts of future oil production assuming that inflation-adjusted oil prices will rise to $300 per barrel.
Instead of rising to a very high level, fossil fuel prices tend to spike because there is a two-way contest between the price the consumers can afford and the price the sellers need to keep reinvesting in new fields to keep fossil fuel supplies increasing. Prices oscillate back and forth, with neither buyers nor sellers finding themselves very happy with the situation. The current price of the benchmark, Brent oil, is $81.
[2] Historical data shows spiking oil and coal prices.
When world oil prices started to spike in the 1973-1974 period, the US started to move its industrial production offshore (Figure 1). The very low inflation-adjusted prices that prevailed up until 1972 no longer held. Manufacturing costs climbed higher. Consumers wanted smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, and such cars were already being manufactured both in Europe and in Japan. Importing these cars made sense.
More recently, coal prices have begun to spike. Coal prices vary by location, but the general patterns are similar for the types of coal shown.
Before China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, coal prices tended to be below $50 per ton (figure 3). At that price, coal was a very inexpensive fuel for making steel and concrete, and for many other industrial uses.
After China joined the WTO, China’s coal consumption soared (Figure 4), allowing it to industrialize. Figure 3 shows that the extra demand initially pushed coal prices up a little. By 2022, coal prices had soared. At present, coal prices are part-way back down, perhaps partly because higher interest rates are dampening world demand for coal.
Natural gas prices also soared in 2022, at the same time as coal prices. Both coal and natural gas are fuels that are burned to produce electricity. When the coal supply is constrained, utilities will try to purchase more electricity produced by burning natural gas. However, it is difficult to store much natural gas for future use. Thus, a shortage of internationally traded coal can simultaneously lead to a shortage of internationally traded natural gas.
Having oil, coal, and natural gas prices spiking at the same time leads to inflation and to many unhappy citizens.
[3] The 1997 Kyoto Protocol encouraged the trend toward moving industry to lower-cost countries.
In Figure 1, I show a dotted line at 1997. At that time, an international treaty stating that the participating countries would limit their own CO2 emissions attracted a lot of attention. An easy way to limit CO2 emissions was by moving industry overseas. Even though the US did not sign the treaty until later, the treaty gave the US a reason to move industry overseas. We can see from Figure 1 that US industrialization, as measured by the energy per capita required to industrialize, began to fall even more rapidly after 1997.
[4] There were many reasons besides the Kyoto Protocol why Advanced Economies would want to move industry overseas.
There were many reasons to move industry overseas besides spiking oil prices and concern over CO2 levels. With such a change, customers in the US (and European countries making a similar change) gained access to lower-cost goods and services. With the money the customers could save, they were able to buy more discretionary goods and services, which helped to ramp up local economies.
Also, industry tends to be polluting. Smog tends to be problem if coal is burned, or if diesel with high sulfur content is burned. Mining tends to produce a lot of toxic waste. Moving this pollution offshore to poorer countries would solve the pollution problem without the high cost of attempting to capture this pollution and properly store it.
Furthermore, business-owners in the United States could sense the opportunity to grow to be truly international in size if they moved much of their industry overseas.
[5] All the globalization and moving of industry overseas had a downside: more wage and wealth disparity.
In a matter of a few years, the economy changed to provide fewer high-paying factory jobs in the United States. Increasingly, those without advanced education found it difficult to provide an adequate living for their families. The high incomes were disproportionately going to highly educated workers and the owners of capital goods (Figure 5).
[6] Part of what caused the growing wage and wealth disparities in Figure 5 was the growing industrialization of China (Figure 6).
China, with its growing industrialization, could outcompete whole industries, such as furniture-making and garment-making, leaving US workers to find lower-paid jobs in the service sector. Similar outcomes unfolded in the EU and Japan, as industrialization started moving to different parts of the world.
[7] The indirect impact of the Kyoto Protocol was to move CO2 emissions slightly away from the Advanced Nations. Overall, CO2 emissions rose.
Anyone who expected that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol would reduce world CO2 emissions would have been disappointed.
[8] The direct use of fossil fuels plays a far more important role in the economy than we have ever been taught.
Thanks to the direct use of fossil fuels, the world can have paved roads, bridges made of steel, and electricity transmission lines. It can have concrete. It can have pharmaceutical products, herbicides, and insecticides. Many of these benefits come from the chemical properties of fossil fuels. Electricity, by itself, could never provide these products since it has been stripped of the chemical benefits of fossil fuels. Electricity is also difficult to store.
With the benefit of fossil fuels, the world can also have high-quality steel, with precisely the composition desired by those making it. With only electricity, it is possible to use electric arc furnaces to recycle used steel, but such steel is limited both in quantity and quality. US production of steel amounts to 5% of world supply (primarily using electric arc furnaces), while China’s production (mostly using coal) amounts to 50% of world supply.
I highly recommend reading the article, Trapped in the Iron Age, by Kris De Decker. He explains that the world uses an enormous amount of steel, but most of it is hidden in places we can’t see. Today, with the US’s limited steel-making capability, the US needs to import most of its steel, including steel pipes from China to drill its oil wells. We cannot see how dependent we have become on other countries for our basic steel needs.
China and India have both based their recent growth primarily on rising coal consumption. This is what has kept world CO2 emissions high. The US is now exporting coal to these countries.
[9] Citizens of Advanced Economies are easily confused about the importance of fossil fuel use because they have never been taught about the subject and because their worldview is distorted by the narrow view they see from within their homes and offices.
Figure 8 shows that the sector with the highest share of electricity use is the commercial sector. This includes uses such as stores, offices, and hospitals. The most visible energy use is lighting and operating computers, which gives the perception that electricity is the greatest energy use. But these businesses also need to be heated, and heat is often produced by burning natural gas directly. Businesses also need back-up for their electrical systems. Such back-up is typically provided by diesel-powered generators.
Residential usage is similar. It is easy to see the use of electricity, but heat is generally needed during winter. This is often provided by natural gas or propane. Natural gas is also often used in hot water heaters, stoves, and clothes dryers. Occasionally, wood is used to heat homes; this would go into the non-electricity portion, as well.
The thing that most people do not realize is that industrial use and transportation use are extremely large sectors of the economy (Figure 9), and these sectors are very low consumers of electricity (Figure 8). Also, if the US and Europe were to re-industrialize to produce more of our manufactured goods, our industrial sectors would need to be much larger than they are today.
In recent years, electrical consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the industrial sector has averaged about 13% of the total (Figure 9). Industries typically need high heat levels; such heat can usually be achieved at lowest cost by burning fossil fuels directly. Wikipedia claims, “Electric arc steelmaking is only economical where there is plentiful, reliable electricity, with a well-developed electrical grid.” An electric grid, powered only by intermittent electricity from wind turbines and solar panels, would not qualify.
In Figure 8, electricity consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption for the US transportation sector rounds to 0%, for every year. Even the amount of biomass (ethanol and biodiesel) used by the transportation sector doesn’t have much of an impact, as shown in Figure 10.
A major issue is that transportation is a broad sector, including trucks, trains, planes, and boats, in addition to private passenger autos. Also, I expect that the only electricity that would be considered in the transportation energy calculation would be electricity purchased from an away-from-home charging facility. Electricity used when charging at home would likely be part of residential electricity consumption.
[9] The narrative saying that we can transition to an electricity-only economy, powered by intermittent wind and solar electricity, has major holes in it.
One major issue is that the pricing of wind and solar tends to drive out other electricity providers, particularly nuclear. Intermittent wind and solar are given “priority” when they are available. This leads to very low or negative prices for other electricity providers. Nuclear is particularly affected because it cannot ramp up and down, in response to prices that are far below its cost of production.
Nuclear is a far more stable source of electricity than either wind or solar, and it is also a low-carbon source. As a result, economies end up worse off, in terms of electricity supply per capita, and in stability of available supply, when wind and solar are added.
Another issue is that wind turbines and solar panels are made with fossil fuels and repaired using fossil fuels. Without fossil fuels, we cannot maintain electricity transmission lines and roads. Thus, wind turbines and solar panels are as much a part of the fossil fuel system as hydroelectric electricity and electricity made from coal or natural gas.
Also, as discussed above, only a small share of the economy is today operated using electricity. The IEA says that 20% of 2023 world energy supply comes from electricity. The amounts I calculated as “Overall” in Figure 8 indicate an electricity share of 18%, which is a bit less than the IEA is indicating for the world. Figure 8 shows an early upward trend in this ratio, but no upward trend since 2012. Fossil fuels are being used today because they have chemical characteristics that are needed or because they provide the energy services required in a less expensive manner than electricity.
Even in the early days of the Industrial Revolution, wind and waterpower provided only a small portion of the total energy supply. Coal provided the heat energy that both industry and residences needed, inexpensively. Wind and waterpower were not well adapted to providing heat energy when needed.
If we are short of inexpensive-to-extract fossil fuels, relative to today’s large population, we certainly could use some new inexpensive source of stable electricity supply. But this would not solve all our energy problems–we would still need a substantial amount of fossil fuel supplies to grow our food and keep our roads repaired. But if a new type of electricity production could reduce the demand for fossil fuels, it would make a larger quantity of fossil fuels available for other purposes.
[10] Practically everyone would like a happily-ever-after ending, so it is easy for politicians, educators, and the news media to put together overly optimistic versions of the future.
The narrative that CO2 is the world’s biggest enemy, so we need to move quickly away from fossil fuels, has received a great deal of publicity recently, but it is problematic from two different points of view:
(a) The feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels without killing off a very major portion of the world’s population seems to be virtually zero. The world economy is a dissipative structure in physics terms. It needs energy of the right kinds to “dissipate,” just as humans are dissipative structures and need food to dissipate (digest). Humans cannot live on lettuce alone, or practically any other foodstuff by itself. We need a “portfolio” of foods, adapted to our bodies’ needs. The economy is similar. It cannot operate only on electricity, any more than humans can live only on high-priced icing for cakes.
(b) The narrative about the importance of CO2 emissions with respect to climate change is quite possibly exaggerated. There are many other things that would seem to be at least as likely to cause short-term shifts in temperatures:
- Lack of global dimming caused by less coal dust and reduced sulfur compounds in the atmosphere; in other words, reducing smog tends to raise temperatures.
- Small changes in the Earth’s orbit
- Changes in solar activity
- Changes related to volcanic eruptions
- Changes related to shifts in the magnetic north and south poles
Politicians, educators, and the news media would all like a narrative that can explain the need for moving away from fossil fuels, rather than admit that “our easy to extract fossil fuel supply is running out.” The climate change narrative has been an easy approach to highlight, since clearly the climate is changing. It also provides the view that somehow we will be able to fix the problem if we take it seriously enough.
[11] Today, we are in a period of conflict among nations, indirectly related to not having access to enough fossil fuels for a world population of 8 billion. There is also a significant chance of financial collapse.
In my opinion, today’s world is a little like the “Roaring 20s” that came shortly before a major stock market crash in 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. After the Great Depression, the world entered World War II. There is huge wage and wealth disparity; energy supplies per capita are stretched.
Today, NATO and Russia are fighting a proxy war in Ukraine. Russia is a major fossil fuel producer; it would like to be paid more for the energy products it sells. Russia could perhaps get better prices by selling oil and other energy products to Asian customers instead of its current customer mix. At the same time, the US claims primary leadership (hegemony) in the world but, in fact, it needs to import many goods from overseas. It even needs supply lines from around the world for weapons being sent to Ukraine. The Ukraine conflict is not going well for the US.
I do not know how this will work out. I am hoping that there will not be a World War III, in the same way that there was a World War II. All countries are terribly dependent on each other, even though there are not enough fossil fuels to go around. Perhaps countries will try to sabotage one another, using modern techniques, such as cyber warfare.
I think that there is a substantial chance of a major financial collapse in the next few years. The level of debt is very high now. A major recession, with lots of collapsing debt, seems to be a strong possibility.
[12] A presentation I recently gave to a group of actuaries that touches on several of these issues, plus others.
My presentation can be found at this link: Beware: The Economy Is Beginning to Shrink
Florida City Suffering Drinking Water Shortage
Published Jun 07, 2024 at 8:27 AM EDT
Updated Jun 07, 2024 at 11:36 AM EDT
West Palm Beach is now pumping water from underground wells to help with its declining drinking-water supply.
The Florida city’s primary water sources, Grassy Waters Preserve and Clear Lake, are experiencing low water levels. This is because of the “impacts of the lack of seasonal rainfall and record-high temperatures,” the West Palm Beach Utilities Department said in a statement on Wednesday.
Officials said: “To supplement our supply of fresh drinking water, the city has recently activated our well fields, utilizing the Florida surficial aquifer to add approximately 10 million gallons of water daily.” They went on to remind locals of “their significant role in water conservation, particularly during the ongoing hot and dry weather.”
However, city officials stressed to Newsweek that West Palm Beach “is not running out of water.”
No, just like with OIL, we shall NEVER run out…it just becomes unaffordable…
Maybe building a series of desalinization plants will solve the problem..they will be running renewable solar energy..promise
Without knowing the particulars of this situation, I can imagine several contributing factors:
1. Underground fresh water aquifers being pumped too low, by excessive use by citizens, business, farmers, and electric utilities, over a period of years.
2. Rising population contributes to this problem. Need more water and more electricity for more citizens and more businesses.
3. Lack of seasonal rainfall (mentioned in article)
4. High temperatures (mentioned in article)
Here in Broward County the same is happening…
What’s going on?
Saltwater intrusion diagram
U.S. Geological Survey photo. (Creative Commons 3.0)
Saltwater intrusion is the movement of saltwater into freshwater aquifers. In South Florida, the aquifer is experiencing increasing levels of saltwater intrusion.
This phenomenon is caused by the depletion of fresh groundwater due to pumping, wells, overuse of water by coastal populations and agriculture, and by changing the natural path of water flow. It can be exacerbated by sea level rise and storm surge.
As freshwater is depleted, saltwater rushes in to take its place.
Why it matters.
Saltwater intrusion threatens drinking water and may make it more costly
That’s one item we can’t substitute, drinking water
Laughing quietly, import water from Georgia?
Dennis L.
No different…Denny, that red clay ain’t going to save them, Bud
I saw this article posted on zerohedge. As usual plenty of comments by people of the faith that money creates resources. As usual some criticism, and once the criticism threshold is exceeded a very long sub-thread about nostalgia of the 70s pushes down the comments with some substance (they are working hard in Haifa). As usual my comment is stopped cold, no matter how factual. Are we sure extreme depopulation is such a bad thing? Because these people of the faith are the most illuminated among the people surrounding us.
Also, I am at a Dubai airport (was in Middle East, going back). This and Istanbul airport are what the world is going to look like in 20 years. I should say, my own race generally looks significantly better. I have not seen a fit person in several days. The FlyDubai safety movie played at the beginning of the flight has cartoons with all types of passengers too, so they keep up with the times. The attendants in the movie are mongrels, but they could pass for iranians.
“As usual some criticism, and once the criticism threshold is exceeded a very long sub-thread about nostalgia of the 70s pushes down the comments with some substance..”
That was my observation as well.
giving up all gains since 1900.
How the energy transition could create a fleet of ghost ships
“That, at least, is the argument of a paper published today by researchers at University College London and Switzerland’s Kühne Foundation.
It notes that more than a third of the world’s commercial shipping capacity carries fossil fuels, including around 13,000 oil tankers, roughly 3,000 tankers carrying liquefied natural or petroleum gas, and 2,500 bulk carriers transporting coal. The total value of these ships, including new vessels ordered but not yet delivered, amounts to about $596bn.
The new paper looks at what would happen to this sector if the world gets on track to limit global warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, a target that governments agreed to strive towards in the 2015 Paris agreement. To assess this, it uses a scenario set out by the International Energy Agency, in which global energy emissions are reduced to net zero by 2050, with an attendant slump in fossil fuel demand.”
https://www.ft.com/content/82de936e-92f0-448c-89db-adaf41955915
Ok, the world will not get on track. No one was expecting anything different. or they will first ask that fuel for military be severely reduced, since they are getting more and more disrespectful with the hegemon.
“It notes that more than a third of the world’s commercial shipping capacity carries fossil fuels,”
There’s a little message in that fact somewhere, that many need to digest.
Yes, a number I will be using as it reveals so much. Take that third out and you instantly loose the other two thirds as well. I look forward to someone trying to explain how we survive that.
Over the last year or two a huge amount of deals have been done to increase this number(LNG being a big portion). China, Qatar, the UAE and others didn’t put in these orders because they are going to reduce shipping or use of fuels. They will become ghost ships only when we(they) have burnt all that can be acquire, not before.
How does the US get along without all of its overseas imports? Or Europe?
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“Have feedbacks taken over as the dominant driver of the temperature rise? The image shows NOAA March 2009 through May 2024 monthly CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa (black) with a trend (magenta) added for a joint 30-year coverage. The trend shows how CO₂ could cross the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm (parts per million) in 2038, which in itself would push up temperatures by a further 8°C. “?
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana
Postkey, sorry but you are singing to the wrong audience 😭 here.
This is definitely NOT a receptive group….told that many a time by Gail.
Her response is we really can’t do anything about it..I agree..
After 12 ‘shocking’ months of broken heat records, scientists say Earth is 4 years away from crossing 1.5 degrees of heating
BYTHE ASSOCIATED PRESS AND JAMEY KEATEN
June 5, 2024 at 12:24 PM EDT
Actually, the press is STILL pretending four more years away…right🙄
wonderful. I will plant corn next year.
Sure, put it in can and then sit on the pot, dribhie
Agreed. The big issue in recent temperature rise seems likely to be the loss of smog, as the result of the shift to lower sulfur diesel and attempts to clean up coal in the atmosphere through the use of “scrubbers” on power plants.
If the self-organizing economy works toward dissipating more energy, higher temperatures would actually seem to be a plus. There is more energy available to be dissipated by life on earth. Plant life can grow more abundantly. Temporary cold periods tend to depress plant life. Humans aren’t the only form of life on the planet.
The ecosystem we are part of may be rebalancing itself toward dissipating energy in a different combination of ways. We humans are kidding ourselves if we think we have more than a tiny amount of influence over energy consumption. At most what we do is enable other users (probably from poorer countries) to use more fossil fuel energy, in ways that produce more goods and services per unit used than the way Advanced Countries operate.
Thus, we help move along the move to shift fossil fuel use to what are now the poorer countries.
After 12 ‘shocking’ months of broken heat records, scientists say Earth is 4 years away from crossing 1.5 degrees of heating
The only broken record I’m hearing is that golden oldie The World is Boiling and We’re All Gonna Die!!
Dennis Meadows: “Growth is going to stop, for one reason or another”
>2022 Spanish interview
>great points
“I’ve heard you call climate change a “symptom,” of what exactly?”
It is essential to recognize that climate change, inflation, food shortages, are sometimes considered problems, but in reality, they are symptoms of a larger problem.
Just as a persistent headache can sometimes be a symptom of cancer, many current difficulties are symptoms of levels of material consumption that have grown beyond the limits of the planet. Of course, symptoms are important. A headache deserves an answer. However, an aspirin may make the patient feel better temporarily, but it does not solve the underlying problem. This requires treating the uncontrolled growth of cancer cells in the body.
Under ideal conditions, technology may give you more time, but it won’t fix the problem. It can widen the margin, the opportunity to make the political and social changes that are necessary. But as long as you have a system that relies on growth to solve every problem, technology will not be able to prevent many crucial limits from being overstepped, as we are already seeing.
https://ctxt.es/es/20220701/Politica/40230/Dennis-Meadows-crecimiento-limites-colapso-crisis-ecologica-decrecimiento.htm?utm_campaign=twitter&s=03
A finite system suffers from diminishing returns, as whatever we want becomes more and more difficult to get. Also, as population rises, we need more goods and services for the rising population.
Growth is attractive, since specialization often yields savings. And overhead expenses become lower, relative to total costs.
This is all part of a finite system. There is nothing we can do to fix it.
“Partisan cover-up of the COVID-19 pandemic leaves us exposed to the next outbreak. Nobody bothered to ask how the National Institutes of Health evaded an Obama-era moratorium on gain-of-function research — a ban enacted out of concern that a lab leak could cause a pandemic. Nor did anyone ask Fauci about a 2018 experiment his division conducted, in which NIAID researchers tried to infect bats with Wuhan coronaviruses at the NIH’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories. Fauci apologists are conveniently retreating to the position that we will simply never know the origin of COVID-19. To actually prevent a future pandemic, a modicum of humility from Fauci and his fellow advocates for risky gain-of-function research is the necessary first step.”?
https://nypost.com/2024/06/04/opinion/partisan-cover-up-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-leaves-us-exposed-to-the-next-outbreak/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
As a responsible administration, one would evaluate the management of the last pandemic before transferring future responsibilty to the same body. I don’t know any general study, but many studies about single aspects: lockdowns, masks and distance orders have not moderated the pandemic. Isolation and orders not to see a doctor have led to unnecessary pneumonias, the new standard treatments containes partly letal dosis, there is not any proof according to EMA and Pfizer, that the jabs could reduce infection and transmission, statistics indicate that the opposite might be the case – not to mention side and longtime effects. The tests were highly flawed. The growing test number created a growing R-value. According to German RKI-files there has never been any state of emergency. On this basis, important human and civil rights had been suspended. It cannot be worse!
Less interference by governmental organizations and quasi governmental organizations would seem to be the answer.
The rich want to control everything. They fund things like the World Health Organization. In fact, big pharmaceutical groups fund the CDC. This is part of the problem, too.
“VW takes €60 billion out of the EV budget and puts it back into combustion cars”?
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/06/vw-takes-e60-billion-out-of-the-ev-budget-and-puts-it-back-into-combustion-cars/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=vw-takes-e60-billion-out-of-the-ev-budget-and-puts-it-back-into-combustion-cars
Hurray!
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The last days of the Empire . Just like Rome . Decadence .
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/obese-woman-wins-miss-alabama-and-people-have-questions
Marbled beef for the apocalypse. Valuable.
The US of A has lost it’s mind . One man spews mindless crap and the public is going wild .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gamestop-crashes-after-dismal-earnings-announces-equity-offering-ahead-roaring-kitty-event
Funny, I was just on the $GME reddit checking out the comments of all these pump-and-dumpers. This financial system is a dumpster fire and everyone knows it. Young traders are taking crazy bets again because work is devalued and “the American dream” is out of reach unless you metaphorically win the lottery.
there is marbled and there is wagyu. She wagyu.
There seem to be several contests of this type. This one didn’t feature a swimsuit competition.
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Blast, from before.
I too, follow the CNY and JPY on the forex and have done for decades but it’s not clear to me whether by the CNY “blowing up” you mean weakening or strengthening to the wazoo. Either would have major global ramifications.
The Chinese and Japanese seem both skilled in maintaining currency levels where they want them, and I’m not convinced that the Saudis could have sufficient leveraged bets on the CNY to make much impact one way or the other. After all, it’s a non-convertible currency. Wall St has done its damnest with the HKD which is convertible and couldn’t do nuffin (so far)
With respect to the USD, you stated:
Sooner or later they have to try to inflate the bubble again to get the non performing loans performing and start kneecapping the dollar again. I just thought it would be sooner not later.
The elephant in the room being commercial real estate.
I’d agree that it’s logical to expect this time worn practice to continue, but for the sake of CRE? The nips tried easing for 35 years, unsuccessfully until very recently, by expanding CB credit in the attempt to inflate their asset price bubble, because of the sluggish growth and constrained non-performing loans in commercial banks. In a falling interest rate environment bank balance sheets were restored and offshore lending greatly boosted profitability.
Last year, while the JPY devalued 7%, overseas net assets increased 12.2% so, despite CRE losses, Japan’s still stacking – now around USD3tril
english.news.cn/20240528/84ebb03816ce4bbf8c3caba1c32b342c/c.html
Good perspective. And it looks like fed in no hurry to cut so you could very well be right. I do disagree on forex. It dont take much to move forex leverage. 20k moves forex a bit with 400x leverage. By blow up I mean raise in value. I stand by my statement if Saud was going to ditch dollar rembini would blow up. Saud has stated rembini their prefered currency.).
Forex is just gambling. Theres no currency’s. It’s like ag futures. Theres no delivery option that I know of. One guy bets up. Another bets down. Forex is just the casino that connects the bets. And the rate on your particular casino is determined by the bets. Lots and lots and lots of shenanigans possible. Y
I stopped playing forex a long time ago. Got tired of looking at my bets all the time. Not really a gambler. I will also say. Nowadays your saying against AI. you ain’t going to beat AI
That goes for everything
I worked with a guy that had got inheritance. Couple mil. We were running option spreads. He was way smarter than me. I was playing with 10k. He was playing with 2m. He would lose. I would win. But over time with things like iron cross your not supposed to lose with the like of iron cross.
AI can see your bets. 2m on the table made it worth itd while.
I’ll be honest. I don’t know what convertable means. Is that the foreign yuan vs the domestic? What’s the deal?
Thanks for the question, Blast. Always good to codify one’s vague understandings.
In addition to the inability of delivery for settlement, you can’t actually go to the bank with your USD win and buy CNY. Sure, you can gamble on the fx rate but other than hedging fluctuations against offshore currencies, contracts cannot be used as a means of obtaining or disposing of the underlying asset. With ag commodities, these are physically traded in other exchanges outside commodities forward markets.
Currency non-convertibility significantly dampens potential for manuipulation on the part of non-issuers by the usual suspects, now including AI, through financial market contracts. Probably the only ever brilliant move by Malaysian PM Mahathir was in 1997 in the Asian Contagion to make the MYR non-convertible which saved the country from the talons of the IMF. Because of everything else he did, it very well may not have made much difference in the long term, although the nation’s petroleum reserves remain still largely controlled by the nationally owned oil company, even if their economic surplus has been alienated by their kleptocrats
Convertibility will be an issue with the increasing “internationalisation” of the CNY. For this reason, it wouldn’t surprise me if the BRICS do come up with some form of synthetic settlement token between each other which the PBoC can use. As I understand it at present, regardless of how many USD the Saudi can win on CNY fx gambling I don’t believe they’re able to use the proceeds to push around the actual currency demand …
sometimes understanding financial extraction processes seems like the group of blind men touching different parts of an elephant and discussing what they think about what the creature is.
From your link (and your last paragraph), it sounds like the Japanese carry trade is still expanding. This seems to benefit Japan.
But, you are right, Japan has not been able to inflate away its debt, (and raise asset prices), no matter what it has done. Now the yen is falling relative to the US$ . This makes imports more expensive for the Japanese, but it makes their exports (such as cars) more competitive in the world market.
>> Japan has not been able to inflate away its debt
Put me in front of their computers and I’ll inflate away their debt in a few seconds. If they don’t inflate it away, that’s a choice on their part because of the other consequences of doing so.
My interpretation that the BoJ policy to generate inflation is not principally aimed at “inflating away the debt”. The goal is to stimulate consumer demand and boost economic activity and capital investment. Having a positive slope to future prices increases consumer incentive to purchase soon. The risk is with exchange rate impact on import prices (particularly energy and food) breaking out too greatly. A weakening currency is also big plus for exports and the carry trade profitability. After 35 years of all this, fueled by falling JGB yields and QE the tide appears to be turning and with yields rising as significantly as they have done lately, the risk on the JPY is on strengthening – which could explode the carry trade. That’d be one very loud hahaha in the universe.
Now, where’s that thumb when you need it?
>> The goal is to stimulate […] capital investment.
If they wanted to stimulate investment, why not just make loans to businesses in whatever sector they deem worthwhile? Jeffrey Sachs talks about how that was the model that helped them get ahead way back when until the US basically told Japan’s Finance minister and economists to stop financing productive businesses and switch to financing real estate and other machinations like we do here … the consequences were the property bubble and lost decade etc. IIRC the Princes of the Yen covers this topic.
Weakening currency is not helping in exports . Japan also offshored it’s production . It is running record trade deficits . I do read that tourism is booming but the Japanese find it sickening .
https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01594/
… running record trade deficits …
true eighteen months ago but it’s since bounced back to virtually neutral level with positive trend
t’was two and a half years ago the JPY plunge started
“J” curve?
No one knows the future
Space skepticism is rising
https://theconversation.com/welcome-to-the-age-of-space-scepticism-and-a-growing-revolt-against-elites-231504
the people are not buying the space narrative.
They just see this as some project by the ultrawealthy to just mock the populace even further.
Starship might orbit, but whatever it might bring will only benefit Musk and his many children, plus his investors.
At least the Conquistadors were able to take their own gold and build their own haciendas, even though the methods might not be politically correct now.
All means of production will be monopolized by Musk and his progeny, with nothing for the colonists. Only the most desperate will apply.
I can understand a growing revolt against the elite, if they are the ones benefitting from space programs.
I will have to admit that GPS has been awfully useful to those of us ordinary folks driving around in our cars, trying to get places. And weather forecasts on our phones have gotten extremely good. It seems like space programs are involved with these.
Government space programs don’t seem to raise taxes–an awfully lot government spending goes into added debt. So common people have less reason to revolt against governmental space efforts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk38BdJlujk
Photonic computing may be coming of age. With a bunch more computing, maybe AGI can figure out what to do with us monkeys or where some new energy gradients may exist.
This is another video by Kevin Walmsley of Inside China. He says that China is already producing chips as fast as Nvidia’s. It may be three years away from producing light-based semiconductor chips that are many times faster and use less energy. It doesn’t make much sense for the US to be building semiconductor chip plants, using the old technology, at great governmental expense in the US, if China is close to producing something much better.
I will believe it when I see it. Computers are so powerful today because they pack a lot of transistors in a small volume. Say you have a transistor every 7nm. How are you going to replace that type of density with a light emitting transistor, when the optical wavelength is of order 500 nm?
(ZeroHedge + DefenseSecurity + MiamiHerald)
Russian warships and nuclear submarine in the Carribean sea and near Cuba.
At last some headache also for US, just to feel what is the consequence of pushing wars everywhere in the world, thinking that problems are only for the others.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-warships-steam-caribbean-ukraine-tensions-go-global
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/russia-deploys-warships-including-nuclear-submarine-to-nation-bordering-the-united-states/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article289067634.html
My guess. Those ships will be delivering long range missiles conventional as Putin mentioned. Venezuela not Cuba because of history my guess. Otherwise it’s just a couple symbolic rust buckets. The sub is a nice asset but this looks like a delivery not a message because not much of a message.
Maybe burning more oil to gain control over oil is the definition of a dissipative structure?
rust buckets?
They’re sending the Admiral Gorshkov, commissioned 2018 and the first of ten in its class (two others since completed) which is fitted with the latest Zircon nuclear capable hypersonic missiles
Rust could be the ultimate definition of a dissipative structure. Thank you.
My mistake didn’t catch that. That’s basicly their best. A very capable instrument of destruction.
So maybe it’s not a delivery
Having very capable military ships nearby sounds frightening. I presume that that is at least part of the intent.
Yes Gail, I agree with you that it is the message.
Additionally the Russians has recently said that as Nato gives weapons to the enemies of Russia, in the same way, Russia could give weapons to the enemies of USA.
So maybe they are sending weapons (but I don’t think this is the case) or they are simply demonstrating what will practically mean -> having danger in the courtyard.
We have to admit that it is a clever response.
Hasn’t Russia given weapons to the “enemy” before? Hoo! Hoo! Grunts the Ape Russia good….United States bad! Such simple minded people on here.
rom Andrei Martyanov
“Putin stated that Russia will supply weapons to West’s enemies.
In the end, two can play the game.
So, what can those enemies possibly be?
As you might expect, Houthis may get, “suddenly”, anti-shipping missiles which will be suspiciously similar to such systems as P-800 Onyx.
Or “freedom fighters” elsewhere, including Europe?
Russian ships visiting Cuba and Venezuela
These are the biggest guns in cruise missile business in the world.
Gorshkov carries 32 Onyx, Zircon, Kalibrs and Otvet.
These are the most advanced and deadly cruise missiles in history, with a serious combat pedigree.
Kazan, which is Yasen-class SSGN submarine also carries 32 VLS and, in addition, has 10 torpedo tubes which can shoot not just torpedoes.
Admiral Gorshkov will be involved–this means 3M22 Zircon carrier and this is just polite demonstration of flag.
Just to remind everyone:
The range of 3M22 Zircon is 1,500 km
The range of 3M14 is 2,500 km
These distances are from CUBA
See the whole video or from 10 minutes on .
Garbage collecting is a noble profession. When I was growing up they would knock on your door around Christmas and request that their nimbleness be acknowledged with mere currency.
Compost is nobility. Others are fakers.
Prof. Mearsheimer, one of the leading scholars in International Relations, is back on the Duran.
He is of the Realist school of geopolitical thought within IR and he is critical of the assumptions of the Liberal school within IR.
Liberals supposed that economic intergration will lead to peace within a stable global order that is hegemonised by USA and the world will all become ‘liberal democratic’.
Indeed the post-Cold War status quo does now seem to be breaking down in the world as major powers/ blocs discover that thay have contrary interests and engage in power struggles.
The global order does seem to be at a pivotal point of splintering quite possibly into major war/ multipolarity.
The ‘Thucydides Trap’ postulates that aging hegemons will tend to fight it out against emergent peers to maintain their hegemony and USA seems to be up for a fight with both Russia and China.
And they seem to be up for it too, push come to shove.
End of the Liberal Order & Return of War – John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Talking about the so called ‘cold war’?
“Taken together, these four volumes constitute an extraordinary commentary on a basic weakness in the Soviet system.
The Soviets are heavily dependent on Western technology and innovation not only in their civilian industries, but also in their military programs.
An inevitable conclusion from the evidence in this book is that we have totally ignored a policy that would enable us to neutralize Soviet global ambitions while simultaneously reducing the defense budget and the tax load on American citizens.”
“ His book tells at least part of the story of the Soviet Union’s reliance on Western technology, including the infamous Kama River truck plant, which was built by the Pullman-Swindell company of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, a subsidiary of M. W. Kellogg Co. Prof. Pipes remarks that the bulk of the Soviet merchant marine, the largest in the world, was built in foreign shipyards. He even tells the story (related in greater detail in this book) of the Bryant Chucking Grinder Company of Springfield, Vermont, which sold the Soviet Union the ball-bearing machines that alone made possible the targeting mechanism of Soviet MIRV’ed ballistic missiles. “ ?
http://www.crowhealingnetwork.net/pdf/Antony%20Sutton%20-%20The%20Best%20Enemy%20Money%20Can%20Buy.pdf
Norman Pagett wrote:
‘glad you mentioned ”something to eat”
no matter how much ”stuff” you mine on the moons of saturn—you still gotta eat and drink.’
**************
We won’t be mining anything from the moons of Saturn for a very long time to come. Saturn is over a billion km from Earth at its closest, on average some 3500x further away than the moon. The delta-v and energy needed to get anything back from there to Earth are simply too high to allow realistic export of anything. Without nuclear pulse propulsion technology, only a handful of bodies are energetically favourable to mine for use in Earth orbit in the near future. You are correct that there are significant challenges to human expansion into space.
Over the next 50 years, it is possible that mining activity will begin to take place on the moon. That is favourable, because of its proximity to Earth, low gravity and lack of atmosphere. It is energetically quite cheap to launch materials from the lunar surface to high Earth orbit. Much cheaper than launching them from Earth. But the moon will be a harsh environment for people and mechanical mining equipment to operate in. Temperature swings are extreme. Cosmic ray background doses will limit the amount of time people can spend on the surface. The dust is highly abrasive and toxic, rather like broken glass that has been pounded by a billion years of meteorite impacts into fine dust. Some of those dust particles are smaller than cigarette smoke particles. Dust destroyed Apollo space suits in just a few days of exposure. The moon is generally depleted in carbon, hydrogen (water) and nitrogen. All things we need to survive. But it could provide a bulk source of metal oxides, other ceramics and oxygen, that can be used to manufacture things in Earth orbit. It is not a place where a lot of people will choose to live. Growing food there will indeed be difficult. But as a mining outpost, it has a bright future.
With more effort and a longer investment window, some of the near earth asteroids are potential mining targets. But only a few are on the right orbits to make it energetically favourable to bring things back to Earth orbit. And even fewer offer a balanced set of resources, i.e water, carbon, nitrogen, as well as metals and ceramics. The main belt asteroids are out of reach, requiring several km/s delta-V to reach them or to bring anything back. This is why I was sceptical of Dennis’ talk about ‘a cubic mile of platinum’ harvested from asteroids. The sheer volume of bulk rock that would need to be processed to get that platinum puts this beyond the resources of accessible near Earth asteroids. Maybe in the further future with better propulsion technology we will mine the main belt asteroids and get that much platinum. Right now, we need iron, aluminium, titanium, oxygen and silicon in most abundance. The lunar surface is made of these elements. Whilst the near Earth asteroids are more difficult to reach, they tend to contain things that the moon lacks, like water.
Mars would be much more difficult to mine, due to its distance, relatively deep gravity well and persistant cold. The outer planets are even more distant, have deeper gravity wells and the delta-V needed to match orbits with their moons is high. The link below contains a dV map. The amount of energy needed to get anywhere in space is equal to dV squared, divided by two. You can see for yourself how it rapidly adds up.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-v
Growing food away from Earth will be challenging. It space, food can be produced from microalgae and micoprotein, grown in acetic acid salts. That would be an energy efficient way of producing food on bodies like the moon and Mars. It may be how we start producing staple carbs and proteins here on Earth as well. In free space, where sunlight is intense, controllable and available all the time, pressurised greenhouses will be very productive, as we can precisely control sunlight, temperature, humidity and micronutrients. The high productivity will help balance the high capital cost of growing in this way.
Peter
i picked the moons of saturn to add to the ongoing nonsense of this.
in an earlier post, i asked what we might actually do with all this stuff we mine ”out there”
because ”stuff” has to be converted into other ”stuff”—or it is totally without value, and pointless.
no answer—the focus is on mining and more mining.—somehow that will support global prosperity, every asteroid we reach makes us richer—except that it won’t,
starships are the answer now—musk has let off fireworks, and they ”work”,…lol
should i point out that Musk is using 1000 yr old chinese technology to get ”off earth”?…we havent yet been able to improve on that—yet the talk is of mining asteroids using it.
Peter, your obvious intellect suggests that i continue to try to point out where logic lies—yet i’m finding laughter difficult to repress.
The humble iron cooking pot was just about the first object to be mass produced in thousands in the early 18th c–why?—because it was cheap and above all useful.
anything brought back from ”out there” will cost too much to be useful
mine all you want, where you want, but unless you convert moonstuff into cheap desirable objects, it will be a waste of time.
In all this endless discourse–no one says what moonstuff will be converted into.
‘in an earlier post, i asked what we might actually do with all this stuff we mine ”out there”’
The answer is primarily to build solar power satellites that deliver electrical energy to Earth. If SPS is workable as a concept, then the green transition will be a lot easier. Annually, human beings spend $10trillion on energy. So the market is huge. Demand for electricity is growing at a rate much greater than other forms of delivered energy. Energy delivers economic growth, which drives the need for new energy. So the future energy market will be larger still.
We could launch SPS from Earth. But the cost of launch is still too high for its economics to be better than marginal. The hardest part of going anywhere in space is leaving the Earth behind. It has a lot of gravity, making it difficult to leave. Climbing up that steep curve in spacetime requires enormous force. And it isn’t and probably never will be very cheap. But the same is not true of the moon or asteroids.
‘Peter, your obvious intellect suggests that i continue to try to point out where logic lies—yet i’m finding laughter difficult to repress.’
Laugh as much as you like. But these ideas have been developed by bigger men than either of us, indeed, some of tge greatest minds of the 20th century. Humanity has not developed space manufacturing yet because the cost of reaching orbit is too high. There are other technical issues with developing space manufacturing, but lift costs are by far the greatest. If Starship works in the way Musk expects it to, that problem will soon be solved.
This is a pivotal moment in history. Human development has always been constrained by shortages of energy, physical resources and living space. These limitations are becoming more and more evident by the day. All of these problems stem, in one way or another, from the fact that human affairs are confined to the outer skin of a ball of rock, some 8000 miles in diameter. There is only so much energy to go round and only so much stuff that can be dug out of the Earth’s crust. The paradigm behind human affairs is so rooted in the idea of limitations, that is is extremely difficult to imagine a world where those limits don’t exist.
What would it take to escape that paradigm, to chart a new course to a place where none of those traditional limitation exist? The hardest part is leaving the Earth behind.
//////Annually, human beings spend $10trillion on energy. So the market is huge. Demand for electricity is growing at a rate much greater than other forms of delivered energy. //////
i think youve missed a critical point Peter.
Money is only a token of energy exchange.
Spending $10trn is in practical terms, exchanging one energy form for another.
we can spend 10 trn through all the ”work” we do to create ”wages”—and wages are only created when we convert one energy form into another.
when i pay my electricity bill, i use money earned by converting another form of energy from elsewhere.–my daily labour if you like.
theoretically, it might be possible to ”deliver” unlimited amounts of electrical energy to earth, but it is only useful if it can be converted into something else, which in turn is ”useful” to humankind.
Modern homes are full of gizmos that consumes electricity—but the infrastructure has to exist in order to produce those gizmos, and importantly, to ”consume them”
it isnt possible to support electricity supply just by ”printing money”.
and fetching it from ”out there” would divert too much earth energy to make it economically practical
Is there some reason why a “chain” of metals, etc. cannot be started from these planets, moons, etc., nudged on their way to earth/moon? This would be more or less continuous delivery once started, not unlike shipping on earth.
Yes, it will take time, but once started, if done robotically with excess solar energy even if only slightly energy positive it would make no difference.
Energy is space is very cheap, minerals in space will be very cheap, transportation will be very cheap. Time will not be cheap; however, the quantities over time are so vast that should equal out, NPV game as always.
Dennis L.
dennis
i have a suspicion that you are hkhenson’s stunt double
(Euronews)
Incredibile.
Mario Draghi Is First in position to substitute Ursula von der Leyen.
Mario Draghi was the one saying that people who didn’t take covid vaccine were going to make others die and also were going to die themselves.
He was also going on saying that people who didn’t take covid vaccine had to be expelled from the society.
I wonder if people of other European Countries really know Mario Draghi…
https://it.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/06/commissione-ue-draghi-piu-gradito-di-von-der-leyen-tra-gli-europei
Strange world we live in. People who promulgate popularly believed falsehoods somehow are viewed favorably.
Yes Gail, it is terrible.
I hope truth will come out also in other European Countries.
but at least we have the satisfaction of Alex Jones having to liquidate all his assets to settle all the litigation over his insane claims about fakery in school shootings.
i seem to recall, a few years ago, that the ofw faker-in -chief used to repeat the same claims. (as well as a lot of other stuff)
as i kept saying at the time—say anything to gain attention.
he used to promulgate popular falsehoods all the time, and his acolytes believed all the rubbish he constantly vomited.
Many still do.
He is 100% a globalist puppet. The architect of privatization of ENI, IRI and EFIM. Italy’s economy never recovered. I hope to see him hang.
Yes, drb he made that.
I’m worried he could make it or he could take another important position, for instance in Nato.
It is true that he is a globalist puppet, but I followed him closely during his Italian government and I can tell you that, besides the above, additionally, he likes much hurting people.
“It’s a Big Club and you ain’t in it. You and I are not in the Big Club.”
— George Carlin
Other members of the club —Ardren(NZ) , Lagarde , Rutte(NL), Stoltenberg , Trudeau , Morrison ( AUS) , Cameron , Johnson .
“Ve penetrate ze cabinetz!”
CHS referenced in ZeroHedge: Crisis of Confidence.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/our-crisis-competence
I admit a personal bias, maker here.
We have a large group who understand use of narrative and now how to export same via our modern devices.
The universe is not a narrative, it is perhaps a long running experiment which makes things, breaks things and has other things and ideas go along working as they may.
A guess: religions in the west failed when they tried to connect their narrative reality to observation. Religion is not a narrative, it is a metaphor. as our understanding of how things work increases, we understand more of the metaphor and thus the metaphor does not fail us. The metaphor of the Abrahamic religions seems incredibly flexible and yes there are contradictions, as things progress it seems to work good enough. It is a competent religion. Something also is working in China, know nothing of those beliefs.
Many, not all, of those in political power have a narrative and are going insane trying to make reality match that narrative.
The universe unfolds before us and I liked Ed’s summary at one point:
“God is dead Nietzsche”
“Nietzsche is dead, God”
The current narratives too will pass, reality is a harsh mistress. The metaphors most likely will endure.
A cubic mile of Pt would helpful about now.
Dennis L.
Strangely enough, the writings of the Old Testament and of the New Testament can be made to go along with a large number of different narratives. This is how we get so many different religions.
But somehow, even among religions that have nothing to do with the Bible, there is a common thread of treating your neighbor well. Looking at what happened in the past, we can see what behaviors seem to work and which ones don’t.
The behaviors that work are in some ways related to the Maximum Power Principle–everyone needs to contribute. But the outcomes aren’t necessarily proportional. Giving everyone the same reward, regardless of effort, doesn’t work, but neither does concentrating all the wealth at the top.
Paragraph 3: Nice summary, thoughtful.
Dennis L.
Charles Hugh Smith ends his post with:
We clearly are in a land of delusion.
Perhaps they are all MBA’s. Apparently there are very few at SpaceX.
Dennis L.
The MBAs are just outsourced.
tl. dr. The religion of Musk and the myth of the cubic mile of Pt will survive
“Together, they would watch everything that was so carefully planned collapse, and they would smile at the beauty of destruction.”
― Markus Zusak, The Book Thief
Collapse leaves room for something new to grow out of its ashes. If there are fewer people, the ones that remain have more work opportunities, for example. There are fewer farmers, relative to land available, for example.
(the Cradle + Comedonchisciotte)
“Supporting genocide to halt multipolarity
The Hegemon is calculating for a World War to halt multipolarity. It supports Israel’s Gaza genocide as a necessary evil to win hard in West Asia, figuring who’s going to care once the war goes global?
…
Today, I listened to an extensive interview with an IDF ex-intelligence officer. His position was clear: ‘We are,’ he said, ‘aiming towards a world war’ (italics mine). Israel, therefore, shouldn’t stop itself from implementing some of the most radical measures because its actions will be measured retroactively in the context of the brutal world conflict to come.”
https://thecradle.co/articles/supporting-genocide-to-halt-multipolarity
https://comedonchisciotte.org/sostenere-il-genocidio-per-fermare-il-multipolarismo/
This doesn’t sound good! The West has no way of winning a war against combined other powers.
With regards to world war.
It is my understanding that WWIII would be the destruction of humanity.
My “belief” has a large thumb periodically placed on the scale. Again, we are 27B years into this experiment, that is a great deal of patience and probably a great many failures litter that universe. We will not be allowed to screw things up to that point. Father will say, “NO.”
Dennis L.
What thumb? What 27B years? Modern humans are less than 50,000 years old. A blip in astronomic time scale.
There is no Father.
If there were a Father he would have made Gabby Princip choke to death at Sarajevo in order to preserve the humanity which had been bred for excellence for 4 centuries to be replaced by the likes of Oliver Mellers, the Irish laborer who gets to shag the aristocrat woman in D H Lawrence’s book.
The horror.
Lawrence is boring, that is being generous.
Dennis L.
kul,
The wonderful thing, is if I am right, we will never know the thumb was used, if I am wrong there will be no one to tell everyone “I told you so.”
I like bets that can’t be lost, more profitable than winning.
Dennis L.
I don’t care about being able to say I told you so. I do not really think too much about it.
I only write to remove any false hope which is commonly seen in desperate situations as the people in trouble will grab at anything, instead of trying to find a way to mitigate the problem.
If modern civ had 50 years, I would gladly support your idea, since with 50 years there are plenty of time to get it through. However we don’t have 50 years.
kul,
I have heard that one before, originally LTG, very early seventies.
Ehrlich was sure we would starve in the seventies, now the current meme is declining population globally.
These guys are never right.
Dennis L.
Declining pop doesn’t matter now since they are using quite a lot more energy
https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/passenger_travel_2015/chapter2/fig2_8
The stats speak for themselves
Where was thumbelina at Hiroshima and Nagasaki or any of the many many human intentional human acts of destruction that created mass casualties? Why didn’t daddy say no then?
I do believe in a creator. I just don’t think he appears like magic to save you always. At a certain point dad gives you the car keys and you have learned responsibility or the car gets wrecked. Nor is it good to save a child all the time they must learn. That means risk is accepted. Otherwise it’s just a dog in a pen.
As far a the 27 billion years it’s made up delusional nonsense. It exists in your head and some sort of imaginary friend you believe in for whatever reason. Fine your prerogative but we are students of observation and systems here. We have 500,000 dead in Ukraine and 100,000 dead in Gaza no thumb showed up for them and your nonsense is not appropriate for the levity of the situation. It’s like singing howdy doody at a funeral.
Its absaloutly your right to believe a magic thumb. I wouldn’t dare assert it isn’t. Being concerned about the deaths of 100s of thousands of people is a function of compassion and your piping up about your magic thumb negates both compassion and responsibility. You don’t believe it yourself that’s why you are compelled to assert it every time you find it necessary to deny reality and the deaths and suffering that are occurring right now as we speak. That way you can bring the subject to the other moronic topics you favor, not that we are on the brink of ww3. Your thumb is the thumb of censorship no more no less.
It rained today
There is a thumb
I ate a hamburger
There is a thumb
I mowed the lawn
There is a thumb.
There’s this thing in communication called appropriateness. We all get it now that you believe a thumb will appear to save the world when needed. I don’t negate your right to believe that. It’s our right to have conversation about current events. I don”t tell you that a thumb is going to squash musk. If I did what could you say?
Uh huh
Nope
Uh huh
Nope
Uh huh
That’s where thumb gets us. That’s where your thumbelina leads us. Very selfish and all done for the sake of your denial dysfunction. If you really had faith you wouldn’t have to voice it. This isn’t faith; your thumb is a giant eraser that you pull out for anything you find disturbing.
The very reason Christianity became irrelevant is because the fear of hell became irrelevant after the horrors of the world wars.
The Father, or whatever you choose to call that guy, was AWOL when millions cried for help. What nerver would he have if he shows up?
If God meets me, he will have to apologize to ME! (an inscription at Oswiecim.)
Sorry it disturbs you. Feel free to skip over whatever.
There is a story about a mouse trap, disassembled and placed in a bag and shaken for however long, it never again becomes a mouse trap, only parts. What makes it a mouse trap is conscious effort on the part of a human.
Perhaps think of the universe as a very large mousetrap, being shaken, blown up, rearranged; it cannot be random. If it is not random can it be done without consciousness? If it is done with consciousness, what kind of being has that consciousness?
I tell you, it is turtles all the way down. A metaphor if you like.
I only skimmed yours, but as for suffering, pain is what makes us who we are. We have pain to avoid things which are not good for us. Stove and cat is an old story.
Many here have suppositions the world will end, I do not know but my guess is as good as any and to date things have worked out pretty well overall.
Too many good things for it to be luck. There is a thumb somewhere.
Dennis L.
That is called a gambler’s fallacy.
A gambler can win 100 days out of 100 but can lose everything on the 101st day.
There is a thumb somewhere, but it is like a casino boss, who is going to try to take back all your winnings to keep his lousy job.
You guys don’t get it!? No one can win a world war east or west! It doesn’t matter because everyone on here would be dead..
As the time for the denizens of United Kingdom, USA and Canada to pay for everything it has done in the last 5 centuries is approaching fast, they will resort to more and more self-denial and delusion as a coping mechanism.
Basically what they did in the last century is to weaken Europe and Japan and prop up third world countries, in accordance to the ‘balance of power’ bullshit.
Well, karma is a female dog, and the monsters they propped up are now coming to devour them. Musk,Bezos, etc won’t be able to stop the hordes. At most they will be holed up in their compounds, hoping the Hordes miss their strongholds.
They will live in luxury in their compounds, but the social structure which gave them so much power will be gone, and all these starship myth will pass along like the legendary adventured of Hercules.
er…..
as i recall japan invaded everywhere it could to make up for having no indigenous resources, and to expand its empire.
correct me if i’m wrong there
If one studies the origins of the pacific war, it began when CANADA conspired to United Kingdom to break the alliance with Japan.
Franklin Roosevelt propped up China and drove Japan to desperate straits, basically pushing them to attack somewhere.
and bsically that stupid move awarded the resources of China to the Hordes.
kulm
nothing like backdating a good conspiracy
japan invaded korea in 1910, then china in 1937
BS always needs prior research
Teddy Roosevelt approved Japan annexing Korea
and what interest did USA have in China back then? It was the Asians’ problems.
Whereas Britain invaded everywhere it could in order to share the benefits of Christianity and civilization with them?
And the world’s most expansive empire was the result of everywhere’s gratitude to Britain for teaching them manners and agreeing to take their indigenous resources of their hands?
You might be right:
“they will resort to more and more self-denial and delusion as a coping mechanism.”
All these Muskniks tend to be silent over the Hordes about to end it all.
I humbly say that starship, or whatever the moguls are now building, will not really amount to anything and the Hordes will overwhelm them all.
Some powerful moguls putting money into this? That does not impress me. Very wealth people sometimes do very stupid things, that’s all.
The Hordes do not care whether starship gets to mars or whatever, which i seriously doubt anyways.
They do not have to physically destroy the launch pods. With the economic structure gone and the techies not paid, the launch pods will decay like the Hearst Castle, memorial to some rich guy who could not find a better place to burn his money.
Bad news for Biden. US economic indicators are going down rapidly. Public anger is growing, with still 5 months for things to get worse prior to election.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/second-quarter-recession-year-looks-increasingly-likely
Some excerpts from Mish’s article:
Also:
The situation doesn’t sound good. Also, we are heading into 18 months from the time the big increase rate increase took place. Bad effects are starting to hit the economy.
I listen and read a lot of different media. And the falsehood coming out of the liberal side is enormous ! Those people that only listen to this are going to be in for a shock; they are being told that everything is great with the u.s economy. I do wonder if the ptb want Trump in office when it fails and blame him for it?
Is it time for a CANZUK alliance?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7y4ts9JhQHg
The man presenting the video describes this as ‘a new British Empire’. But I think that this time around, the Canadians would end up dominating. Their population is closing on the UK and they have more natural resources and arguably a better position overall.
Rather than being an empire, this would be a close partnership of nations, forming a trade block and sharing resources for common military, technological and strategic goals. This alliance would probably have a close partnership with the US and would extend western dominance into the 21st century.
The Americans would likely have mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, it would be able to do what Donald Trump suggested and make a larger contribution to global security. One the other hand, it wouod provide Canada with a lot more global clout and would likely make it a genuine economic and geopolitical rival.
Right now, Canada isn’t doing very well, however. Neither is the UK. Putting the two together won’t necessarily help. They cannot possibly be the “New Global Peace Keeper.”
As a naval power, a CANZUK alliance could develop something comparable to the US navy. But it would take time. Its land based military would be smaller, as combined population is only half the size. But its focus would be more on maintaining shipping routes than dealing with rogue states.
One of the problems with the CANZUK idea is that all members are high wage economies with similar demographic structure. A close economic union would allow greater economies of scale, but wouldn’t do anything to build a vertically integrated economy with multiple price points. And all four members are really too small for even their combined demand to replace China as a customer for Australian commodities. That suggests that the union would benefit from ties with another lower wage and demographically younger country.
I’m afraid this wouldn’t work.
Canada and the UK don’t have much manufacturing capability. Setting up factories for manufacturing what is needed for armaments and ships takes time and a lot of (probably debt-based) capital. There is also a need for engineering expertise. Canada does have oil, but it needs to send most of the United States (or elsewhere) for refining.
“But its focus would be more on maintaining shipping routes than dealing with rogue states.”
I can’t see how these two can be separated. All you need is a few Houthi rebels to disrupt shipping. Besides, anyone with a bomb can easily blow up any ship you build. This is a problem the US has with its ships. They are very vulnerable to others blowing them up.
A quick look at steel production adds the final nail in the coffin of that still born idea.
World: 1,888.2mmt*
China: 1,019.1mmt
Russia: 75.8
Canada: 12.3mmt
U K: 5.6mmt
Aus: 5.5mmt
NZ: 0.65mmt
Hollywood narratives and financial fraud are a poor substitute for steel, when you need machines of war. Even if you add the U.S(80.7mmt) your still losing and that’s before we take into consideration the time scale. Russia and China can build and put into service, in a fraction of the time any western country, or group countries of could.
A challenge for all western countries.
Group together and build a single titanium sub. You don’t have much steel and Russia can build subs from titanium(first one went into service in 1971), so given that the narrative states we are more advanced and able, a single one should be a doddle(chuck a few hypersonics in the weapons bay as well, because even Iran can do that).
We lose in every field(technical knowledge, means of production and a resource base). Even the R-36M2 defeated all western peer attempts and now the RS-28 is in service. Limited numbers for now, but look at it’s destructive power compared to a Minuteman lll(assuming they still work) and you will soon realise that claims on numbers are no more relevant than believing a thousand men with spud guns are peer to 100 men with machine guns and unlimited ammunition.
The timescale of our realisation is the real debate, but we appear a long way from even admitting that we need that debate.
*mmt = million metric tonnes, not magic money tree and that’s what the west can’t get their collective heads around. Hardly surprising, given the way we pervert language.
There is a widening gap between the subsidized basic foodstuff, like products from grain, and the foodstuff like berries, fruits and vegetables, which require more inputs, especially.human labor, which is in short supply for low paid jobs.
what some have called skimpflation, where food corporations put less higher quality ingredients into their packaged food products and more lower quality ingredients.
lots of these food products are based on less expensive grains.
meanwhile what I see in supermarkets are abundant berries, fruits and vegetables, which are higher priced per pound and therefore there always seems to be plentiful supply.
as the world economy enters degrowth, there will be a growing demand for less expensive food.
not nutritious but it usually tastes good.
people will eat what they can afford.
que sera sera.
Over the last few months I’ve eaten worse quality food than at any point in my life and it has noticeably (to me) degraded my cognitive ability and ability to sit still. After reverting to healthy food, the effects are near-immediate and I feel better. Just a reminder to everyone to pay attention to your health!
everyone should become more prosperous so that they can eat better.
simple!
Yeah, easier said than done for most in this world, but most people with spare time to comment here also have the means to do so.
It was just quite a surprise to me how stark the contrast is / how big the effects are on a short (months) time frame.
Years ago in the UK, celeb chef Jamie Oliver did a show about how terrible British school dinners were, and made a valiant attempt at improving the situation. He sat in on a few classes and got the parents of a particularly badly behaved boy to agree to let Oliver buy food and cook for the family for a few days. The improvement in behaviour was remarkable, and underscored by how at one point, the kid’s mother gave him a typical processed meal (beans on white toast) and he reverted to his previous behaviour literally within minutes. Y’are what y’eat.
Lurker, seems plausible, although given the point of the show, maybe they mucked with things. Either way, thinking back now, I suppose a fair bit of poor student behavior and academic performance could be tied to diet.
Priorities, priorities. Most people would spend their money on Netflix before healthy food!
” We put policies in place that discourage growing wheat in Europe with certain characteristics (and in general, sowing wheat), and who could imagine that imported wheat does not meet what is necessary (they sell us garbage, come on…). It seems that they have tried to “strain” a dough made with wheat that does not meet what is necessary (not all flours are the same… to make cookies, certain characteristics of protein index, gluten, etc., are required, different from those necessary for buns, or bread…) because there was no necessary flour, and after complaints from consumers because they did not look good, they have temporarily withdrawn the product until a sufficient quantity of wheat can be obtained in conditions to make dumplings.”
From another blog . Anyone has any additional info on this matter .
I have just finished the netting protection for my blueberries. That is another cost for the growing of the berries.
Berries can be grown quite easily on a small ground. They are expensive because of their labour content. To pick a few berries a day is not too much work. Of course, you need some place where to grow them, at least a balcony. Herbs can also be grown in a window box or on the window sill. Some originally tropical plants can be grown indoor and provide fresh leaves for salad and tea. Hanging baskets in the window might enlarge the space. Alternatively, fresh sprouts can be grown from Alfalfa or other seeds, that don’t require too much light.
I can believe that there is a widening gap between basic foodstuffs compared to fruits and vegetables, but I understand that even “fast food” is getting expensive.
I eat a lot of fruits and vegetables myself.
Then the dates came. First bird up then second one then 10th one then ground facility then synthetic fuel plant then. Hydrogen would cost this much he was gonna haul it with this sort of truck synthetic fuel would cost this to make he could sell it for this much. Organizations and seminars and Grant’s and this name that name no shortage of that. The military wanted in for a little death star action and what military wouldnt. Paul hanging chewing on his leg me too, even Norm I think. But he kept coming back because he was so sure he knew he really knew he was right that this was his destiny and we knew we really knew there was no way. Not a chance of a chance.
Looking back it really sucks to be right.
huh.
I quite enjoy being almost always right.
You don’t understand, we need a cubic mile of cocoa, or else.
Skylon
I couldn’t remember the name for the longest while.
Been a minute.
Man that was some calculations this that and the next thing going back and forth between dollars and energy units as interchangable sharing freely with us at OFW what a priviledge. Cost cutting here. New technology there.
He was tenacious. You got got to him that. That Paul character chewing on his leg didn’t slow him down from his calculations one bit.
oh right, Skylon.
tempus fugit.
This presentation was prepared by the late Dr Gerard O’Neill, the Princeton physics proffessor who wrote ‘The High Frontier’. This was recorded a few years before his death in 1992.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pdtc9eXenJc
This was the vision that inspired Jeff Bezos. It proved to be premature, as the space shuttle was incapable of providing enough heavy lift capability to Low Earth orbit at a low enough price point. If Starship can fulfil this role, then the time for O’Neill’s vision may have finally arrived.
https://www.spacedevelopmentfoundation.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Mankins-John-ISDC-2022-SPS-Overview-Briefing-at-ISDC-2022-v1RR-26May22.pdf
0.05 $/KWH
2GW system for about $10 billion
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTsCWXZG2uGymzCOG5rM4ppsgOWq06v7-16xg&s
You are in ‘good’ company?
A Starship is possible?
” I think it’s called Zero Point Energy and it’s been around a hundred years right ”
” but it was a big breakthrough that got subsumed and taken
36:18 in to covert programs in the US government now Nicola Tesla had
36:24 discovered that there was his energy field he called it the infinite energy field and uh it was a field of energy
36:32 that had not been Quantified but later was as the Zero Point Energy field or
36:38 some people would call it the quantum vacuum”
“when in
1:15:01 reality it’s it’s a it’s a Jedi mind trick by people who don’t want you to
1:15:06 know about zero plane in Quantum vacuum energy”?
I hope Elon used the first SPS (solar power satellite) to power Giga Factory Texas.
Sure, just shoot down a microwave death ray and cook the workers.
offset by 10km with cows grazing under the rectenna.
I imagine the satellite software will be programmed perfectly and the hardware will never fail …
Then, after a large hail storm shatters the receiver, we can all rush to the scene to take away barbequed cows, only to get barbequed ourselves.
One potential problem that no one seems to have considered. If the amount of infrastructure in orbit increases far beyond what we have now, then presumably a lot more material from old satellites and space station modules, will be burning up in Earth’s upper atmosphere. This will result in high altitude micron particulate dust that will block out sunlight and will take years to settle.
A poorly managed space programme could trigger global cooling. That might lead to bigger problems than global warming, as cooling events are known by another name: Ice Ages. This problem complicates any attempt to shift Earth based manufacturing of bulk products into space. If the volume of goods descending to Earth is that large, even heat shield erosion could add a lot of dust to the upper atmosphere. Something to think about.
Peter
Once upon a time I was somebody. I have worked for multiple R&D’s. I have observed professionals embark on development projects.
So you have the old guys that know a thing or two. And somebody comes in with a proposal. You have people that know the barriers. If it’s a bad idea, it destroys the company. So the idea is critiqued from a place of knowledge. The hazards are known, so the details can be addressed. It’s a volatile and contentious process but it leads to correct decisions. Experience counts.
If that is occurring beautiful. Even if you know what you ate doing things arise. Problems are overcome. That’s what a rnd team does. After a while you get a feel. Is this thing really going to work? There are different teams. Is it coming together? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. Knowing which is which is a skill in itself.
Even if you are competent and knowledgeable, it’s the details that cost. You can’t really crunch that. Maybe people can but I haven’t seen it. The physicality of the project we are discussing is huge. The environment is challenging to say the least. I don’t see a way to get a handle on it.
I value what I have seen in successful rnd projects. They are very critical thinkers.
I never see that with alternative energy sources. It’s all about the hopium. And when they lose their ass or uncle sugar daddy funny money stops it’s finished. Kaput. If you try to engage critical thinking you are put into that box.
Critical thinking is rnd’s essence. Hopium don’t cut it.
I fully admit I could be wrong. This could be a class act. It’s still nothing now. Nothing and numbers. Until someone demonstrates that they can actually do some real work not just ride a unicorn or suck off uncles teat I will be skeptical. Any successful engineering team I have witnessed is skeptical and disgusted by hopium. I’ll take one old coot with experience who calls them like he sees them, rather than ten youngsters who get their pantys in a twist when they are questioned on legitimate barriers any day. Things are questioned in a legitimate rnd project.
Until proven otherwise this is a rich man’s toy. You don’t find a pot of gold just because you take a walk in the woods. You take a walk in the woods, trip, fall and pull thorns out of your ass. This is the biggest boondoggle walk ever seen.
When I regard the engineering teams I have known I find this we will just take a stroll in the woods and koombyah a pot of gold will be there because we are the most special and exceptional ever to not be to my taste. There is NOTHING that supports that in successful engineering. Koombyah is not a premise for ANYTHING in engineering. Sing around a campfire cool. In the lab, not cool.
“A Japanese meteorologist named Wasaburo Oishi first discovered a jet stream in the 1920s. An expert in meteorology, Oishi founded Japan’s first upper-air observatory and focused his research on the happenings of the upper atmosphere. At the forefront of his field, Oishi long held suspicions of a strong and extremely fast-moving air current that flowed from east to west.
After launching numerous weather balloons near Mount Fuji, he proved his theory right; this fast-flowing river of high-altitude currents rapidly sped his balloons east. In a book chronicling his discovery, he described it as “a strong wind in the upper air.” Some of these balloons ended up in the United States.
Yet this was not the first time someone had noticed the phenomenon. When Oishi heard of similar observations in other parts of the world, he determined that a continuous stream of fast-moving air encircled the Earth.”
https://explorersweb.com/discovery-of-jet-streams/
Re Lidia breaking glass in riot and MPP
MPP is somewhat undefined. I choose two characteristics. The first is it involves a organism. The second is maximizing energy accumalation over other operating principles. I often refer to this as maximizing net energy consumption which is technically incorrect. What it is not is energy dissipation. If the energy is wasted re not adding to net consumption it is contrary to MPP as a function of efficiency.
Your example breaking glass in a riot provides opportunity for discussion.
First the organism must be defined. Organisms compete for reources so what is MPP for one is not for another. Let’s define the organism as the collective group of rioters seeking maxinum net energy consumption.
The actual act of breaking glass is not in keeping with MPP. it represents wasted not consumed energy.
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Since humans hold concepts and ideas as tools they invariably use them to implement MPP. Thus breaking glass in a riot is not in keeping with MPP but the perception is that doing it will lead to greater energy consumption as a function of demanding more energy. The belief about the reason for the action but the real motive is MPP.
The shopkeeper on the other side is the same. He will not support the “cause” of the riot because the broken glass hurts his business decreasing his net energy consumtion. The broken glass hurts the shopkeeper from a MPP perspective.
Which brings me to my observation. Invariably peoples beliefs and actions actually are implementing MPP.
This leads to false justice. The shopkeeper did not receive justice. His situation needed to be considered. The rioters situation needs to be considered too. This is achieved by practicing compassion, diplomacy, bargaining and haggling valuable survival skills in order to temper not eliminate MPP. The alternative is MPP and force to distribute resources, broken glass.
Since we live in a finite world tempering MPP is to everyone’s benefit. Broken glass is less resources for everyone. The way this is achieved is through understanding that true justice is in everyone’s benefit. True justice is achieved by practicing compassion diplomacy bargaining and haggling. IF force is to be allocated the allocation will have the greatest effect tempering MPP via valuing justice.
This is the task before our species changing our primary behavior to one that will allow us to survive.
Changing behavior is a very hard thing for humans.
I think the organism is the ecosystem, or in the case of humans, the human economy inside of its overall ecosystem. What must be maximized relates to the overall energy dissipation of the system, and the benefit that it is being put to. If humans in Advanced Nations are taking too much of the fossil fuels that are available (relative to the actual benefit), perhaps getting rid of the devices that dissipate fossil fuels in the Advanced Countries (say, through WW3) would leave more fossil fuels to be dissipated in other parts of the world.
That’s pretty much the same. I’m just accenting “net energy consumption” compared to “benefit” because I am a techno nerd. Absolutely valid organism groupings.
Your blog serves as a reminder to be kind to ourselves and others.
yes since kindness will become more difficult for the average person as they descend into poverty in the next decade or two.
The theory that there is a ‘balancing system’ in the world is proven to be false by the very existence of United States.
For the period of 1991-2019, USA basically dominated every single thing on the earth.
If whomever running the show thought something had to be put down, it did not do that to USA, whose leadership became less competent and more hedonistic over the years.
To advance to a new level of civilization, it is necessary for one group of humanity to have everything, and the rest next to nothing.
And, the first group which reaches the next level of civ will simply eliminate all other groups, no different from the Cro Magnons eliminating the Neanderthals.
Noone is reaching any next level of civilisation by implanting erroreous genetic code into the blood cells and gonads. To make jumps in the technological development, effects of the econony of scale are needed. You won’t develop a PC for three people, who need one.
The economy of scale deteriorates with degrowth, caused by declining resource availability, population reduction or financial troubles. Next level of civilisation means more complexity. Degrowth leads to less complexity. The next level of civilisation to come are solutions, that everyone can implement in their own garden or garage to improve life: make some spectacles or shoes or a barrel.
With less availability people cannot even maintain their little house in the suburbs: they cannot afford commuting, the garden is too small to provide a family, and the construction is too week to hold old-style solutions like shingles or sods. The next forrest is too far to transport logs.
They are not aiming next level, they are provoking God to care for his people. At least some of them.
I appreciate next level, though it needn’t be technical. I doubt we can start a technical civilisation on mars, even while I consider it desireable. I am afraid, major crashes will lead to a huge loss of knowledge, books need special conditions to maintain 100 years and an industry for republications. Digital archives need infrastructure, semiconductors and the availability of high tech. Knowledge is already deteriorating, look to graduates: they can present themselves, but they can’t do maths and they can’t neither listen to ideas greater than themselves. And the elites celebrate decadency and corruption, not self-discipline and the development of future technology. Self-replicating mRNA – what do we need that for?
Right now there are too many people. A 1b pop can maintain an economy of scale.
kulm
you are perhaps looking at the ”balance” thing from a perspective that is far too short
(Rai News)
First Italian-Israeli soldier killed in war in Gaza.
R.i.p.
Italian-Israeli soldiers in war are 1.000
https://www.rainews.it/tgr/lombardia/articoli/2024/06/era-di-origini-milanesi-il-riservista-italo-israeliano-ucciso-da-hezbollah-ddab11c7-436e-47ef-a67c-ddafebb5361c.html
https://www.today.it/mondo/soldati-italiani-esercito-israele.html
they collect passports. The guy was not italian by any means.
This sounds to me like running existing long distance transmission lines at closer to the maximum capacity, a greater share of the time. I wonder what could go wrong? I remember hydroelectric power lines starting fires and in California and Venezuela. Power lines of various kinds have started fires in Texas, Hawaii, Australia and practically everywhere else with above ground wiring.
The WSJ reports:
The Aging U.S. Power Grid Is About to Get a Jolt
Bracing for an expected surge in demand for electricity, utilities adopt new tech to boost transmission capacity.
I have posted here a few times over the years. At this late stage, if we ever have a wasy-to-access place on earth where we stick a literal straw to the grouse and crude oil gushes out in huge quantities, will it help? No. We are so interlinked. We are so interconnected. We are so in debt that any jubilee will hurt us more. The system will just crash. So what is the fuss about new energy sources that is hard to get, difficult to store and impossibly expensive? At that stage, what difference does it make?
Any new supposed energy source gives people hope and young people a field to study. It gives an excuse for more debt. Everyone wants to assume that improved technology will overcome all of the difficulties. This gives a reason for young people to study technology.
The economy continues to grow, at least a bit, from having this parallel set of things to study. No one wants to study a fossil fuel system that is becoming too expensive to extract. Or the problems of overpopulation and how to fix them. And too few other resources, such as copper and fresh water.
Someone wrote on another site..even if we have access to new energy sources (especially oil) we would STILL collapse….we fail to tie all the parts together as Gail here repeatedly points out…
here in uk–we are told that there will be no new ic cars after 2030/35
no mention of trucks, 40 ton trucks cant run on batteries
but if there’s no fuel being produced for cars, then fuel for trucks will become too expensive to produce and use
I wonder if we could start running trucks on petrol and LPG? I know there are safety concerns about petrol in large vehicles. But could it be made to work if it had to?
I have my doubts that Britain will phase out ICEs. This sort of posturing was based on unrealistic expectations about EVs rapidly replacing ICEs, without an affordability or performance gap. That was never realistic and it is now unwinding rapidly.
i agree that it is not realistic
i was just relaying government aspirations.
4 years ago i bought a battery hedgetrimmer—doing my bit for ”green” if you like.
the battery is now useless
which i think sums up ev car technology.
get a goat.
cro
in uk—goats have not yet evolved to climb ladders
Then you gotta invest in goats from almost anywhere else. Goats spend a lot of time up in any tree with even a slight lean to it. Plus they can stand on hind legs to browse 6 feet off the ground.
I used to run a company using goats to clear cattle pastures……put a few thousand of them into the thickest forest you can find and shortly you will have a landscape that looks like a British park. Lots of big trees and open beneath the canopy.
The Calhoun mouse utopia experiments are instructive. The vast majority of current extant humans are mentally ill at this point. It is a built in mechanism within Mammalia it appears.
We will not take any efforts to control anything we do…in fact we will do exactly the opposite.
Collapse is a feature, not a bug, of this reality.
Here in the US, cars re just becoming unaffordable for the working class, long list of burdens;
Car payment, insurance, maintenance and repair
The auto makers are adding complexity to repairs so the owner has to return to the dealer…computer module scanners can cost upwards in the thousands of dollars and the parts themselves are constructed to break. The Car Wizard on YouTube has a series on the topic,
One young lady just got an insurance increase of $500 a month for her Honda CRV ..like a car payment.
So, this is just another means to curtail petro demand
What means life, existing more or less healthy and happy and get accustomed to the conditions? The Inuits survived in the eternal ice and led happy family lives. Or does it mean to copy a special standard, seen on Tictoc?
If we know, we are loosing complexity, why is this urgent wish to die and to destroy all? It reminds me of a four-year old, who wanna die because the roller is not possible at the moment.
If we know, we are loosing complexity, it would be sensible to sort out our inheritage and look to what we need for our journey. To prepare for the times to come and to invest into the future, that might not be a technological dream but a new adaptation to realities.
To my astonishment, noone is interested in that!
Worth a watch, blastoff, hope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INUZ9-8p24o
Incredible, live stream as it happens, what would FE say? Fake? Hard to fake.
At 3:40 or so video of separation. They have split telemetry of engines in both the starship and the booster are demonstrated throttling down and up.
Watching a replay of the booster, will watch to finish, then out of here. The real time video is an incredible achievement in and of itself.
You can see the water deflected as the booster lands, it goes to zero velocity as it hits the water while the Starship is also in real-time flying through space.
A man immigrates from SA, starts paypal, starts a car company the real wealth of which is manufacturing process and super computers, and then goes on to launch the largest spacecraft in human history and land both parts on the fourth try.
Of course, coincidence, luck. I think a thumb is on the scale. That is an optimist, don’t have to know everything.
Dennis L.
Memo to All:
Don’t spoil Dennis’ day.
You mock him? I wouldn’t at this point.
After the success of the Starship launch today, the idea of mining and manufacturing in space, with millions of people living up there, is no longer absurd. Musk has demonstrated reusability, for a vehicle that achieves significant economy of scale. There is still a lot that needs to happen before we can actually use this vehicle to do the sorts of things that Dennis is proposing. But it is possible now to imagine space manufacturing and space colonisation, in a way that it wasn’t before.
What Musk achieved today may in the fullness of time be remembered as an event every bit as significant as the first Atlantic crossing. This could very well be a turning point in human history. It has a lot of implications for our energy problems as well. But there are clouds of recession on the horizon. I think Tesla could very well become a lead weight around Musk’s neck that costs him much of the fortune he has built. What then would happen to SpaceX?
What a piece of crap . Musk sends a rocket into the lower stratosphere ( not into real space ) which then crashes , burns and sinks into the sea . What did it achieve ? Answer ; nulla, nada , shunya etc . As they say ” All air , no punch” or in Texas ” All hat , no cattle ” . Might as well see the Chinese rockets my grandson plays with on Christmas .
“all mouth, no trousers.”
That is what I point out to the people who believe in this starship shit all the time.
Musk is a great self promoter like P T Barnum, but he has not really delivered anything.
I have no comment on a starship which goes to nowhere.
Columbus actually brought something back from the New World, which is why he is considered to be the discoverer of the New World.
Until they actually bring something back to the earth, which is quite unlikely, I won’t hold my breath.
It was a test you moron. That is why they landed it in the Indian Ocean. And it didn’t fly to the lower stratosphere. It achieved a suborbital trajectory that took it to a peak orbital altitude of about 200km. With a little more propellant it would have reached orbit.
”What Musk achieved today may in the fullness of time be remembered as an event every bit as significant as the first Atlantic crossing. This could very well be a turning point in human history”
What do you smoke ? Asking for a friend with serious mental issues . 😉
Hopium 31%
Keep out of the reach of children
What a narrow minded point of view. You need to spend more time outside the doomer echo chamber.
Starship is a transportation system that could be used to access new resources, including new energy resources, that aren’t available to us at present. That isn’t inevitable, but it certainly is possible. Today’s successful flight brings that closer. The maths tells me it is possible.
Excuse me?
The term is doomster not doomer.
Just who do you think you are?
😁
Cubic mile of hopium baby! but for global warming all we need is cubic mile of smog particles.
Tony Stark with the worlds best freudian symbol!
Hes q hit!
If only Trump had played with rockets instead of hotels and countermeasures.
No Musk Dancers?
Kim can beat that in spades.
peter
i read some of you comments with great interest—calculation isnt my strong point—to say the least.
You supply information, put together well.
but colonisation requires purpose. Space has no purpose..
If the moon had had commercial purpose, commerce would have been there decades ago.
some perhaps equate space exploration with world exploration—but there was profit in looting the Americas.
Space will always cost more that any return on exploratory ventures–there will be no profitable return.
If you bring back any ”commodity” it will have no value until it is converted to a needed product.
So—we have ”unlimited” resources.
Will we then have a new car every month, and a new TV every week.?
The commercial structure to absorb unlimited commodities cannot exist—therefore, space mining becomes pointless….nothing can acquire value, nothing can be converted into wages—but we cannot exist as a species where everything is doled out for free, on demand.
even if such a nonsense became some form of reality.
Norman, what you have to understand is that space………………
………………
………………
…… it’s the final frontier, innit?
This is why Musk’s Mars colonisation programme is dubious. There isn’t much that Martian colonists could sell to pay for the things that they will need to import. It looks like a grand vision until you start looking at the economics. Human enterprise is driven by proffit.
If we do build solar power satellites in space, this will require a workforce. They will need somewhere to live, with food to eat. This is likely to be what drives colonisation. Colonisation will start with space stations in high Earth orbit. This will be the focus of human attention for a long time to come.
I am less convinced that we will mine platinum to return to Earth. It is extremely valuable at $36,000/kg. But price will crash if we started delivering it to Earth by the tonne load. Cheap energy on the other hand, never gets old. There is a practically bottomless market if SPS can undercut other generators.
Peter
glad you mentioned ”something to eat”
no matterr how much ”stuff” you mine on the moons of saturn—you still gotta eat and drink.
and no, you cant live on each other’s wastes. the laws of thermodynamics prevent that.
so voyaging for years between planets presents a problem….none of them offers us a food source.
wannabe space travellers would spend all their time trying to stay alive
Okdok. The cubic mile of something got a bit closer with this latest triumph.
I think a middle finger is on the scale, so optimists like you do not go berserk and cling to false hopes.
Congratulations Elon and Dennis and SpaceX team
He didn’t start paypal or tesla and his only real involvement in the firework industry is his dubious connections that supply ever more finance for failure. These connections include such wholesome people as Epstein and Maxwell, so that gives a big clue about the finances and like Gates he has a large pr team that’s sole job is to delete and rewrite his history.
A quick intro to the man, the myth and it’s mostly myth where he’s concerned.
https://youtu.be/4y40RU5Nx6U?feature=shared
Musk is a self promoter and snake oil salesman, snatching gullible people who believe he will create something out of nothing.
No different from all these cult believers in history or those who thought Trump would create a miracle around Jan 20, 2021.
A starship which went nowhere and still the believers cheer.
It has been up for an hour!, It made it off the tower. It appears they are now flipping it, waiting of acquisition of signal, it is 37km above the ocean.
We need it to approximate a landing! It is approximating heat shield slowing if I am right. Clapping at the control room, 11km over the ocean now, 9 km over the ocean, 8 km over ocean, made it through the atmosphere!
Speed now 460kh/h, 3 km altitude, 2km 374 km/h. They say “it did it!” Those in control area are jumping up, shouting.
Starship, we are getting closer to stuff, closer to stuff without polluting spaceship earth.
Starship, soft landing in ocean, not sure about booster but apparently it did what it was supposed to.
There is a thumb on the scales. Those who think they can push the doomsday button will find they are under a thumb.
Dennis L.
Dennis, you sound a lot like me at age 11 watching the Apollo launches with James Burke (the TV presenter) and Patrick Moore (the astronomer).
Little did I know at the time that all I would get out of the moon landing project was an Airfix model of a Saturn V, a Teflon frying pan, and some Velcro zippers!
You are in ‘good’ company?
A Starship is possible?
” I think it’s called Zero Point Energy and it’s been around a hundred years right ”
” but it was a big breakthrough that got subsumed and taken
36:18 in to covert programs in the US government now Nicola Tesla had
36:24 discovered that there was his energy field he called it the infinite energy field and uh it was a field of energy
36:32 that had not been Quantified but later was as the Zero Point Energy field or
36:38 some people would call it the quantum vacuum”
“when in
1:15:01 reality it’s it’s a it’s a Jedi mind trick by people who don’t want you to
1:15:06 know about zero plane in Quantum vacuum energy”?
It seems more certain that a technofeudal future, with no progress, extreme coercion and no slack for those who do not belong is coming very soon.
As T S Eliot, a Missourian who tried to ape being a British, had said the world will not end with a bang; it will end with a whimper.
Don’t know, but today is hopefully a blast off, Starship, hope.
Dennis L.
Your dog is having puppies!
Guess his dog is named Starship.
Billions is licking his nuts
how will they keep the techno part up once the light goes out?
The computing power of a cheapo smartphone is enough to run about 2,000 ENIACs, the first computer
Solar charged smartphones are enough to get the ‘techno’ going for quite a while.
I guess only police stations will have smart phones. And SWAT teams.
If that will happen it will be a positive thing.
Life has worsen a lot with smart phone.
I remember that when I was young around 20, I used to go to holidays on summer.
I went to Greece or other places and I made one telephone call to my family saying that it was all right.
That’s it.
When it was necessary to say something to someone, a meeting needed to be organized.
Now people use whatsapp and record own voice, saying what they want.
Or they use emoticon.
This is rabbish communication.
At least with a letter, one needed to think again and read it again to see if it was a good one.
There are people who communicate through whatsapp but they have not seen each other for years, nevertheless they think to be familiar.
Sorry, rubbish.
In English if one makes a mistake with a letter, one can create a problem 😀 😀 😀
Smart phone communications require a cell tower to remain standing and powered.
I suspect in a dystopian future it is all satellite based, and phones are used to send hit lists only.
I decided to run the numbers on space solar power. Space solar power is an idea that gets banded around a lot. The idea is to put a satellite in geostationary orbit, which gathers solar energy in space, generates electricity and transmits power to a receiver station on Earth surface, using microwaves.
The idea does have some appealing aspects. Solar energy is more intense in space and a satellite in geostationary orbit is in sunlight 95% of the time. So intermittency is far less of a problem. There is also no weather in space, so a space solar power system can be more structurally slender than a comparable solar farm built on Earth surface. Space solar power systems can have structural mass as little as 1kg/m2.
But there are clearly some heavy downsides to this idea. Firstly, about one third of the electricity produced by the satellite and turned into microwaves, will be absorbed the Earth’s atmosphere. The receiver station on the ground is a wire net that must be about 10km in diameter. Lastly, the cost of launching a satellite into geostationary orbit is high.
I decided to run a few back of the envelope calculations to test if this idea could ever work. Let us assume a space solar power satellite that generates 15GWe and delivers 10GWe to the grid. Assuming a 25% efficiency over a 30-year operational life, the satellite woukd have 44,100,000m2 of panels, weighing 44,100 tonnes. Structural support, station keeping and the microwave power converter would add to this mass. So lets double the mass to 90,000 tonnes to account for these. How much would it cost to launch this thing in sections into geostationary orbit?
The best vehicle we have for doing this at present is Falcon Heavy. It’s launch cost is $97million for a total payload of 26.7 tonnes to GEO. That works out at $3600/kg.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy
How much would it cost to launch a 90,000te satellite?
Cost = 90,000,000kg x $3600 = $324billion.
It sounds like a lot and it is. Suppose we amortise that over 30 years, how much does the launch cost add to cost of power? Our satellite delivers 10GWe to the grid, with a 95% capacity factor for 30 years. The cost per kWh would be $0.13/kWh. The problem is that this is only launch cost. It doesn’t include the purchase cost of the satellite, nor the cost of the receiver station on the ground. If we assume $1000/kW for the purchase cost of the solar power satellite, it adds $15billion to total cost, increasing capital cost to $339billion. That increases the unit cost of power to $0.136/kWh. I have no way of costing the receiver station on the ground. These are costs without interest.
I conclude that this idea could have potential, but the economics are marginal at present. The cost of producing electric power in this way could be competitive.
The original 1970s studies of this concept tended to assume that solar power satellites would be manufactured in space using materials mined from the moon. It takes only 2% as much energy to launch material from the moon surface as it does from Earth. And because the moon has no atmosphere, this can be done using coil guns that use electricity and no propellant. In other words, it is far more energetically favourable to make components in space using materials mined from the moon, than it is to launch satellite components from Earth into geostationary orbit.
In the long run, this could substantially reduce the cost of building a solar power satellite in space. But the startup costs involved in establishing lunar mining and space based manufacturing will be high. Even if the economics are ultimately good, the sheer amount of capital needed will stretch the resources of most industrial nations. Still, the idea of doing this is not ridiculous, especially with the Artemis programme sending American astronauts back to the moon. And if Elon Musk’s Starship can reduce launch costs substantially beneath those of Falcon Heavy, it may just end up happening.
You are getting it, thanks for the calculations.
Now, I am a spaceship earth person, manufacture in space, skip increasing the atmospheric heat load which you note.
A cubic mile of Pt would make solar storage on earth work, yes H would escape but it is light, it floats back into space.
Starship is today, I hope.
Dennis L.
Starship made it to (sub)orbit and back, and has succesfully splashed down in the Indian Ocean. Clearly there is still a long way to go in making this a reliable and fully reusable vehicle. But mankind just took another giant leap forward into space!
Not really, just repeating what Columbia and others did.
Reinventing the wheel, I would say.
The people who model these things make assumptions about rapid efficiency gains and reusable rockets. They also want to assume that very thin solar PV panels (much thinner than on earth) can be used and that solar electricity will be available 24/7/ almost 365. Thus, they are hopeful that costs can be brought way down.
Lightweight solar panels for use on spacecraft are a well established technology. This reference is from 2007.
https://newfrontiers.larc.nasa.gov/NF3/PDF_FILES/SPOP_OPAG-solar_array_study_final.pdf
They aready had panels that could meet the performance requirements I outlined above.
Fully reusable rockets achieving low cost transportation into Earth orbit, are not yet fully demonstrated. We cannot be sure what their pricing will be when they are developed. But Musk’s flight today suggests that it is possible now. It was speculation before.
Launching these satellites from Earth may ultimately be cheap enough to allow satellite solar to compete with other energy sources. But I still think this is a weak concept. To get EROI on satellite solar power, they really need to be built in space using materials that don’t have to pushed up Earth’s gravity well.
Gravity is usually the problem anyway. Pushing heavy trucks and ships arount the world would be so much easier without gravity! Antigravity technology is what we really need right? We need dozens of Teslas on this pronto! The man not the car, of course. I think the Chinese may be working on this as we speak from what I’ve read, so who knows?
Keith LIVES!
We need shrink to analyze this recurring phenomena and write a book.
They could do doomsters too while they were at it a 2fer.
It’s at times like this I wish Keith Henson was here. The numbers he crunches show space-based solar paying for itself within five months of being launched. Very enthusiastic about it, is Keith.
i think keith must have decided to go for early freezing.
then when he gets defrosted everything will have been sorted out, and energy will be free for everybody
or he will be just slush
in which case it wont matter will it?
I think he changed his thinking that download to a flash drive to cavort amongst the AI lovelies was preferable to an ice cube.
Where was that guy that was cryoing people and couldn’t keep it maintained? There were continuous defrosts and refreezes and finally he just gave up and went to Mexico or somthing abandoning the “facility” and cryo chambers with their now very decidedly not frozen contents. Arizona I think.
1-800-freezit
Kate Middleton ‘may never come back’ to her previous royal role after cancer treatment: report
“The Princess of Wales has remained largely out of the public eye since revealing her cancer diagnosis to the world in March.
And it appears as though she “may never come back in the role that people saw her in before,” a source told Us Weekly.”
https://nypost.com/2024/06/05/entertainment/kate-middleton-may-never-come-back-to-her-previous-royal-role-after-cancer-treatment-report/?utm_source=url_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
You know Camilla is a descendant of Edward VII.
Kate Middleton does NOT come from a proper class to lead the British royalty.
He will remarry someone from proper class.
I do not see descendants of Kate Middleton inheriting the throne. One way or another, the throne will pass to the descendants of Beatrice, who married an Italian nobleman of the correct class.
A miner’s daughter sitting at the throne just makes the British Royalty even a greater joke than now.
The British class system is the final hangup from the Norman conquest and the Scottish clan system, many of whom were also Normans. Being upper class makes one a direct descendant of bastard Norman conquerers. It is not unlike the caste system in India in this respect. When you understand it in those terms, any reverence it might convey swiftly disappears.
The caste system is a way the self-organizing economy stratifies an economy in a way that allows it to get along without very much energy per capita. It happens over and over again. The use of slaves has been extra-ordinarily widespread in areas without fossil fuels. The use of slaves has some similarities to a caste system.
the caste system is just another way of conserving finite resources.
(keeps everyone in their ”proper place”—you are a garbage collector—so your children will be too)
I am a Lord—so my children will be too.
Its a system that works,
Kulm, I admit that they are a very nice couple and I wish them happiness, bit I hope it will not happen because it is not healthy for aitaly to have additional links with UK.
😀
Nevertheless I hope that Kate Middleton will recover, she is not behaving badly.
My impression is that she may have had a medium/long term consequence of the vax, as probably also his father-in-law.
Nobility families were not informed of medium/term consequences on purpose, in my view.
Because the élite-class who handled Covid and vax is, always in my view, another typology of power….
Beatrice https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beatrice_di_York
Edoardo
https://www.fanpage.it/milano/chi-e-edoardo-mapelli-mozzi-il-bergamasco-membro-della-famiglia-reale/
Georg I and Georg II of Hannover did not speak any English but the Walpoles nevertheless installed them as the monarchs of Britain
and Duke Orsini did visit English on 1600, and a ‘Shakespeare’, probably Edward de Vere who didn’t die until 1604, wrote Twelfth Night to entertain the Duke.