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I predict that the world economy will shrink in the next 10 years. I think that this is bound to happen because of energy and debt limits the world economy is hitting. There are a variety of other factors involved, as well.
In this post, I will try to describe the physics-based limits that the economy is facing, related to diminishing returns of many kinds. The problem we are facing has sometimes been called “limits to growth,” or “overshoot and collapse.” Such changes tend to lead to a loss of “complexity.” They are part of the way economies evolve. I would also like to share some ideas on the changes that are likely to occur over the coming decade.
[1] The world economy is a tightly integrated physics-based system, which is experiencing diminishing returns in far more areas than just oil supply.
When extraction of a mineral takes place, usually the easiest (and cheapest) portion of the mineral deposit is extracted first. After the most productive portion is removed, the cost of extraction gradually increases. This process is described as “diminishing returns.” Generally, more energy is required to extract lower quality ores.
The economy is now reaching diminishing returns in many ways. All kinds of resources are affected, including fossil fuels, uranium, fresh water, copper, lithium, titanium, and other minerals. Even farmland is affected because with higher population, more food is required from a similar amount of arable land. Additional-cost efforts such as irrigation can increase food supply from available arable land.
The basic problem is two-fold: rising population takes place while the easiest to extract resources are depleting. The result seems to be Limits to Growth, as modeled in the 1972 book, “The Limits to Growth.” Academic research shows that problems such as those modeled (sometimes referred to as “overshoot and collapse”) have been extremely common throughout history.
Precisely how this problem unfolds varies according to the specifics of each situation. Growing debt levels and increasing wage disparity are common symptoms before collapse. Governments become vulnerable to losses in war and to being overthrown from within. Epidemics tend to spread easily because high wage disparity leads to poor nutrition for many low-wage workers. Dr. Joseph Tainter, in his book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” describes the situation as the loss of complexity, as a society no longer has the ability to support some of the programs it previously was able to support.
At the same time the existing economy is failing, the beginnings of new economies can be expected to start. In some sense, economies “evolve,” just as plants and animals evolve. New economies will eventually replace existing ones. These changes are a necessary part of evolution, caused by the physics of the biosphere.
In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, just as plants, animals, and hurricanes are dissipative structures. All dissipative structures require energy supplies of some type(s) to grow and remain away from a dead state. These structures do not “live” endlessly. Instead, they come to an end and are often replaced by new, slightly different, dissipative structures.
[2] Over the next 10 years, the general direction of the economy will be toward contraction, rather than growth.
There are many indications that the world economy is hitting a turning point because of rising population and diminishing returns with respect to resource extraction. For example:
[a] Debt levels are very high in the US and other countries. A rising debt level can temporarily be used to pull an economy forward without adequate energy supplies because it indirectly gives workers and businesses more spendable income. This income can be used to work around the lack of inexpensive energy products of the preferred types in a variety of different ways:
- It can allow consumers to afford a higher price for existing energy products, if the additional funds get back to customers as higher incomes or lower taxes.
- It can allow businesses to find more efficient ways of using resources, such as ramping up international trade or building more efficient vehicles.
- It can allow the development of new energy products, such as nuclear power generation and electricity from wind and solar.
What we are finding now is that these new approaches tend to encounter bottlenecks of their own. For example, oil supply is sufficiently constrained that the current level of international trade no longer seems to be feasible. Also, wind and solar don’t directly replace oil; electricity based on wind turbines and solar panels can lead to blackouts. Furthermore, diminishing returns with respect to oil and other resources tends to get worse over time, leading to a need for ever more workarounds.
If at some point, extraction becomes more constrained and workarounds fail to provide adequate relief, added debt will lead to inflation rather than to hoped-for economic growth. Higher inflation is the issue that many advanced economies have been struggling with recently. This is an indication that the world has hit limits to growth.
[b] Because of low oil prices, companies are deciding to cut back new investments in extracting oil from shale, and likely elsewhere.
Figure 1 shows that oil prices rise and fall; they don’t rise endlessly. They rose after US oil production hit its first limits in 1970, but this was worked around by ramping up oil production elsewhere. Prices rose in the 2003 to 2008 period and then fell temporarily due to recession. They returned to a higher level in 2011 to 2013, but they have settled at a lower level since then.
One factor in the price decline since 2013 has been the production of US shale oil, adding to world oil supply. Another factor has been growing wage disparity, as workers from rich countries have indirectly begun to compete with workers from low-wage countries for many types of jobs. Low-wage workers cannot afford cars, motorcycles, or long-distance vacations, and this affordability issue is holding down oil demand.
US oil production from shale is in danger of collapsing during the next few years because prices are low, making new investment unprofitable for many producers. In fact, current prices for oil from shale are lower than shown on Figure 1, partly because US prices are a little lower than Brent, and partly because prices have fallen further in 2025. The recent price available for US WTI oil is only about $62 per barrel.
[c] World per capita coal production has fallen since 2014. A recent problem has been low prices.
Transportation costs are a major factor in the delivered price of coal. The reduced production of coal is at least partly the result of coal mines near population centers getting mined out, and the high cost of transporting coal from more distant mines. Today’s coal prices do not seem to be high enough to accommodate the higher costs relating to diminishing returns.
[d] In theory, added debt could be used to prop up oil and coal prices, but debt levels are already very high.
Besides the problem with inflation, mentioned in point [a], there are problems with debt levels becoming unmanageably high.
Figure 3 shows US government debt as a ratio to GDP. If we look at the period since 2008, there was an especially large increase in debt at the time of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Pandemic. The debt level has become so high that interest on the debt is likely to require tax revenue to rise endlessly. The underlying problem is needing to pay interest on the huge amount of outstanding debt.
Putting together [a], [b], [c], and [d], the world has a huge problem. As the world economy is currently organized, it is heavily dependent on both oil and coal. Oil is heavily used in agriculture and in transportation of all kinds (cars, trucks, trains, airplanes, and ships). Coal is especially used in steel and concrete making, and in metal refining. We don’t have direct replacements for coal and oil for these uses. Wind and solar are terribly deficient at their current state of development.
The laws of physics tell us that, given the world’s current infrastructure, a reduction in the availability of both crude oil and coal will lead to cutbacks in the production of many kinds of goods and services around the world. Thus, we should expect that GDP will contract, perhaps for a long period, until workarounds for our difficulties can be developed. Today’s wind turbines and solar panels cannot solve the problem for many reasons, one of which is that fact that production and transport of these devices is dependent upon coal and oil supplies.
Thus, without adequate oil and coal to meet the needs of the world’s growing population, the world economy is being forced to gradually contract.
[3] Overall living standards can be expected to fall rather than rise during the next decade.
A recent article in the Economist shows the following chart, based on an analysis by the United Nations:
Figure 4 shows the trend in the Human Development Index as level in 2023-24. I expect that the trend will gradually shift downward in 2024-2025 and beyond. Modern advances, such as the availability of potable water in homes and the availability of electricity 24 hours per day, will become increasingly less common.
The Economist article displaying Figure 4 notes that, so far, most of the drop in living standards has happened in the poorer countries of the world. These countries were hit harder by Covid restrictions than rich countries. For example, the drop in tourism had a greater impact on less advanced countries than on rich countries. Poor countries were also affected by a decline in export orders for luxury clothing.
Outside of poor countries, young people are already finding it difficult to find jobs that pay well. They are often burdened with debt relating to advanced education, making it difficult for them to have the same standard of living that their parents had. This trend is likely to start hitting older citizens, as well. Jobs will be available, but they won’t pay well. This problem will affect both young and old.
[4] Governments will be especially vulnerable to cutbacks.
History shows that when overshoot and collapse occur, governments are likely to experience severe difficulties, indirectly because many of their citizens are getting poorer. They require more government programs, but if wages tend to be low, the taxes they pay tend to be low, too.
Unfortunately, the kinds of cutbacks being undertaken by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are very much necessary to get payments by the US government down to a level that can be supported by taxes. Regardless of how successful the current DOGE program is, I expect a huge reduction in the number of individuals on the payroll of the US government, perhaps by 50% to 75%, in the next 10 years. I also expect major cutbacks in the funding for outside organizations, such as universities and the many organizations DOGE has targeted.
At some point, the US government will need to reduce or eliminate many types of benefit payments made now. One approach might be to try to send many kinds of programs, such as job loss protection, Medicaid, and Medicare, back to the states to handle. Of course, the states would also have difficulty paying for these benefits without huge tax increases.
[5] Ten years from now, universities and colleges will enroll far fewer students.
I expect that university enrollments will fall by as much as 75% over the next 10 years, partly because government funding for universities is expected to fall. With less funding, tuition and fees are likely to be even higher than they are today. At the same time, jobs for university graduates that pay well will become less available. These considerations will lead fewer students to enroll in four-year programs. Shorter, more targeted education teaching specific skills are likely to become more popular.
There will still be some high-paying jobs available, requiring university degrees. One such area may be in finding answers to our energy and resource problems. Such research will likely be carried out by a smaller number of researchers than are active today because some current areas of research will be discarded as having too little potential benefit relative to the cost involved. Any approach considered will need to succeed with, at most, a tiny amount of government funding.
High paying jobs may also be available to a few students who plan to be the “wheeler-dealers” of the world. Some of these wheeler-dealer types will want to be the ones founding companies. Others will want to run for public office. They may be able to succeed, as well. They may want to study specialized tracks to advance their career goals. Or they may want to choose institutions where they can make contacts with people who can help them in pursuing their career goals.
For most young people, I expect that four-year university degrees will increasingly be viewed as a waste of time and money.
[6] In a shrinking economy, debt defaults will become an increasing problem.
A growing economy is very helpful in allowing financial institutions to prosper. With growth, future earnings of businesses tend to be higher than past earnings. These higher earnings make it possible repay both the borrowed amount and the required interest. With growth, there is little need to lay off employees. Thus, the employees have a reasonable chance to repay mortgage loans and car loans according to agreed-upon terms.
If an economy is shrinking, overhead becomes an ever-larger share of total revenues. This makes profits harder to achieve and may make it necessary to lay off employees. These laid-off employees are more likely to default on their outstanding loans. As debt defaults rise, interest rates charged by lenders tend to rise to compensate for the greater default risk. The higher interest rates make debt repayment for future borrowers even more difficult.
All these issues are likely to lead to financial crises, as debt defaults become more common.
[7] As debt defaults rise, banks tend to fail. This can lead to hyperinflation or deflation.
In a shrinking economy, the big question when banks fail is, “Will governments bail out the banks?”
If governments bail out the failing banks, there is a tendency toward inflation because the bailouts increase the money supply available to citizens, but not the quantity of goods available for purchase. If enough banks fail, the tendency may be toward hyperinflation–way too much money available to purchase very few goods and services.
If no government bailouts are available, the tendency is toward deflation. Without bailouts, the problem is that fewer banks are available to lend to citizens and businesses. As a result, fewer people can afford to buy homes and vehicles using debt, and fewer businesses can take out loans to purchase needed supplies. These changes lead to less demand for finished goods. This change in demand can indirectly be expected to affect commodity prices, as well, including oil prices. With low prices, some suppliers may go out of business, making any supply problem worse.
Regardless of whether bailouts are attempted or not, on average, citizens can be expected to be getting poorer and poorer as time goes on. This occurs because with a shrinking economy, fewer goods and services will be made. Unless the population shrinks at the same rate, individual citizens will find themselves getting poorer and poorer.
[8] Expect more tariffs and more conflicts among countries.
Without enough oil for transportation, the quantity of imported goods must be cut back. A tariff is a good way of doing this. If one country starts raising tariffs, the temptation is for other countries to raise tariffs in return. Thus, the overall level of tariffs can be expected to rise in future years.
Without enough goods and services for everyone to maintain their current standard of living, there will be a definite tendency for more conflict to occur. However, I doubt that the result will be World War III. For one thing, the West seems to have inadequate ammunition to fight a full-scale conventional war. For another, the nuclear bombs that are available are valuable for providing fuel for our nuclear power plants. It makes no sense to use them in war.
[9] Expect an increasing share of empty shelves, as time goes on.
High tech goods are especially likely to disappear from shelves. Replacement parts for automobiles may also be difficult to find, especially before an aftermarket of locally manufactured parts appears.
[10] Interest rates are likely to stay at their current level or increase to a higher level.
The high level of borrowing by governments and others makes lenders reluctant to lend unless the interest rates are high. It should also be noted that current interest rates are not high relative to historical standards. The world has been spoiled in recent years with artificially low interest rates, made possible by Quantitative Easing and other manipulations.
[11] Clearly, this list is not exhaustive.
The world economy has gone through two major disruptions in recent years, one in 2008, and one in 2020. Very unusual changes such as these are quite possible again.
We don’t know how soon new economies will begin to evolve. Eric Chaisson, a physicist who has researched this issue, says that there is a tendency for ever more complex, energy-dense systems to evolve over time. This would suggest that an even more advanced economy may be possible in the future.
Note: I am also publishing this post on Substack. At this point, it is still sort of an experiment. Comments sometimes don’t post well on WordPress. This will give readers a different option for viewing posts. Using Substack, my posts may reach a new audience as well.
Some of you may receive an email about my Substack post. I put in some email addresses back in January 2024 when I put up a post on Substack earlier. Subscriptions will continue to be free both places. This is a direct link to my new post. https://gailtverberg.substack.com/p/economic-contraction-coming-right
So much talk but all empty. All hat, no cattle.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/06/10/politicians-mouthing-words/
A story about how things are going in the UK. There doesn’t seem to be a real way of fixing the problems, but the government goes through the motions of approving changes that can’t work. One of these is added nuclear. Another is throwing more money at problems.
This website is not letting me post a new post so I will squeeze it in here.
www dot nokings dot org
This is the best organized nation wide event I have ever seen. It is breathe taking. Who is paying for it????
When I asked online, the AI answer was:
ABC news also mentions the “Indivisible” organization:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/progressives-holding-kings-day-protests-us-counter-trump/story?id=122698173
This video claims “deep pockets” are involved, including Education Minnesota in Minnesota.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqOcvBFLKkM
Apparently people don’t want to be identified. It is not the Democratic Party sponsoring this event.
The Zionist regime of Mexico wants to take California from the U.S.. It is time for the president to break the back of the enemy.
Practically the only energy California has is human energy. Low wage human energy is especially valuable for producing agricultural crops.
If you look at the map, California is adjacent to Mexico. It could indeed become a part of Mexico. Spanish could be a second language in the state.
Look at an older map and California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, and parts of Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming are in Mexico.
The maps were redrawn and 55% of Mexico disappeared.
Maybe they want some, or all of it back.
Ed, take a chill pill.
Yeah, Ed, you don’t hear me going off about South Florida being annexed by Cuba and Haiti, now do ya? I’m chilling
Mexico has more going for it than Cuba and Haiti.
True, but I live here and now it’s seems I’m living in both Cuba and Haiti depending on which way I turn…no problem, I’m old and too old to be fluent in either Spanish or Creole .
Both Cuba and Haiti are failed states….more to come along with many South Americans
I an certain protestors will be killed on Saturday to serve the narrative.
How is Mexico Zionist?
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo the ruler of Mexico is Jewish. Just as Elinsky the Jewish ruler of Ukraine murdered over a million white Christians who knows how far Sheinbaum can go?
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo the ruler of Mexico is Jewish.
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo the ruler of Mexico is Jewish. Just as Elinsky the Jewish ruler of Ukraine murdered over a million white Christians who knows how far Sheinbaum can go?
Yes, but Mexicans are not as naive as Americans or euros. Claudia might end up being in the crosshairs of some drug lord. Say what you want about Mexicans, a surprising number of them have learned a lesson from 5-6 centuries of colonization.
Pingback: Energy and debt: How does energy and debt affect economic growth? - MacroTrader.io
Marie LaPenne is pushing for separate European countries, rather than the EU:
https://rmx.news/article/the-eu-is-not-europe-marine-le-pen-rallies-nationalists-in-call-for-a-rebirth-of-europes-nations/
‘The EU is not Europe!’ — Marine Le Pen rallies nationalists in call for a rebirth of Europe’s nations
The French nationalist accused the EU of betraying democracy and erasing national identity
From WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/world-bank-sees-u-s-growth-rate-halving-as-tariffs-slow-global-economy-b5ea7b51
World Bank Sees U.S. Growth Rate Halving as Tariffs Slow Global Economy
Slowdown in U.S. and global economies could be more severe if tariffs rise from levels in effect in May, bank says
Of course, it is really the limitations on energy supplies that is causing the reduction in growth rate. The tariffs are a way of trying to rebalance the effect of this reduction somewhat. Perhaps keep the individual economies going a bit longer than the world economy.
Probably the same thing as energy issues although supposedly the US is currently the world’s leading oil producer.
We apparently pay for the goods imported with IOUs, perhaps the world has enough of these and can’t effectively use anymore of them.
The US is a great nation, we have a history of solving our problems in a more constructive manner than say Europe which sees war between countries as a solution. We are going to adapt and perhaps not only the US but the world will be a better place for those efforts.
My anti doom effort for the day.
Dennis L.
This is indeed likely part of the problem:
“We apparently pay for the goods imported with IOUs, perhaps the world has enough of these and can’t effectively use any more of them.”
I am not certain whether we can stay away from war better than others. There seem to be a lot of US citizens with guns.
The US has a history of killing people for the Baal death cult. Will Mr Trump be able to resist murdering the Persians for the death cult? Will he be able to resist murdering the people of Russia for the insane blood hate of the Baal cult?
How will the color revolution being applied to the US play out. Will we be able to find the funders and try them and hang them for treason?
“The US has a history of killing people”
Coming in at just under 95% of the US’s entire history, war seems to be the one and only reason for its set up.
https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/usa-only-17-years-of-peace.html
There might be somewhere with a higher percentage, but maybe not.
In real terms of course growth has been negative since the plandemic. (I hate that I have to say “growth has been negative.”) That was the dark beauty of the transitory inflation; its nominal monetary sleight of hand provided political cover for negative growth. 30% or whatever dollar inflation hides the depressionary real GDP numbers. Poof! Magic.
Too good to be true
“Chinese battery giant CATL has unveiled groundbreaking technology that could forever transform the electric vehicle industry. In this in-depth analysis, I reveal how their new sodium-ion batteries could make EVs cheaper, faster-charging, and more practical than ever before. “?
Fantastic, we can add this pile of rubbish to the billions….of tossed out cell, smart phones, tablets, laptops and desktop computers that don’t get recycled but thrown away…seems like a plan to extend and pretend to me.
Someone had a link to diesel exports evaporating by 2030 that will crash the system anyway…but we can dream on
A good way to reduce the value of existing EVs.
We still have the problem of generating enough electricity in the first place. Also, transmission lines to where it needs to go.
And how to charge enough for the electricity to charge EVs to make the whole set up of charging stations worthwhile for investors. Does there need to be employees there 24/7/365? If so, charging stations become very expensive.
I now have listened to the video. It does indeed sound like it could be a solution to the battery problem, at least in China. It is not clear to me that this technology would be available to the West.
But the other things I listed in my comment above, such as generating enough electricity to charge the batteries and building out our infrastructure to transport all of this electricity are still barriers to actually being able to use them.
We desperately need a breakthrough like this. However, energy density and weight are going to be the limiting factors. Supposedly, these are solid state, so dendrites wont be the problem they have been in the past.
Lithium should not be used in larger applications. Even scooters batteries are too big to be safe.
CATL seems like it has a good reputation. But, what is the catch? There is going to be a catch.
The fact that there often is a catch is the reason for scaling up slowly. Then the issues can be found, early on.
KSA needs to hire you as a consultant.
Perhaps there is a solution to the US’s problem with not being able to buy rare earths from China. China needs some petrochemicals from the US very badly to keep some of its factories going. An article published April 22 said,
Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates
An article today claims,
China’s Need For US Chemicals Greater Than US Need For Rare Earths
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-need-us-chemicals-greater-us-need-rare-earths
So maybe there is room for some negotiation.
Last evening there was a news story of a toy manufacturer that is US based and makes snap together plastic pieces and orders have tripled ….can’t remember the details but the Chinese were featured…interesting
Seems both economies are intertwined
They are next door to a huge hydrocarbon exporter … I would be amazed if Russia weren’t able to provide this already or if not, then soon.
However, if the pipelines don’t have capacity or routing to the necessary inputs, then it seems China made a mistake in trying to take advantage of the pressure on Russia to negotiate huge discounts on Russian pipeline hydrocarbons, which resulted in the deal falling through.
I am wondering whether your assumption about Russia, and perhaps some of its neighbors, actually has the right kind of hydrocarbon form this purpose.
My impression is that we are interested in natural gas liquids for this purpose. The US is a major producer of natural gas liquids. It takes special processing of natural gas to get these liquids. Tight oil from shale leads to a lot of natural gas liquids. Russia has much less of these. It would likely need special pipelines or boats to send the appropriate “liquids” to China. It is not clear to me that it is easily done.
How about South Pars and North Dome?
The Chinese(and Russians) have been working with both Iran and Qatar on development and it appears to be going well, despite interference.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Iran-Looks-To-Ramp-Up-Production-In-The-Worlds-Largest-Gas-Reservoir.html
A 60% increase has just been announced for Phase 11.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/232914/Daily-gas-extraction-from-SP-Phase-11-increases-by-60
I read a few months back about Iran being more selective on oil production, specifically to suit China’s changing needs.
If we add in China, Qatar and Iran’s developments in these gas fields, combined with the relevant infrastructure they have been building, could they get all they need and what would that mean for US producers?
I wouldn’t count on it. Selling natural gas is tricky. Buyers don’t want to build much storage; they just want to buy it as they need it. Buyers also don’t want to pay very much for it because it is usually burned for electricity. High-priced natural gas makes high-priced electricity.
The amount of natural gas liquids that can be extracted varies greatly, from field to field. US gas from shale has been very wet, so it is a natural source for natural gas liquids. But quite a bit of natural gas is quite dry. It doesn’t yield very much natural gas liquids.
Supply is about to drop because of limits so the tariffs are perfect cover for the masses to swallow as the excuse for a huge drop in plastic production so dont expert negotiation expect adaptation to the new reality no more plastics.
I’m guessing that it will take a while for plastics to go away within the US. The US has a lot of supply of natural gas liquids. We are exporting quite a bit now, but we will stop exporting before supply drops completely.
win win. the world needs less plastics, and the US can not ramp up production of several classes of weapons. You can all see where shale oil goes. Gasoline and plastics. Russia and arab oil is too heavy. Expect the price of Chinese paper (the cheapest in the world) to uptick. Plastics will still be produced in China for premium applications (chip and electronics casings for example).
The oil business is not a state-run, state-owned business. Is the US oil industry going to just go along with losing $4.7B in revenues for Trump’s geopolitics?
I keep waiting for someone to bring a 5th amendment “takings” violation case (no deprivation of property without due process and just compensation) for depriving a company of income based on an executive order blocking sales of their products. Maybe the oil companies, with $4.7B in revenues on the line, will be motivated. Of course, they can always use their lobbyists and threat of withholding campaign contributions as a first line of defense.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/green-dominoes-fall-sunnova-files-bankruptcy-after-sunpowers-collapse
Green Dominoes Fall: Sunnova Files For Bankruptcy After SunPower’s Collapse
We need more of these law abiding citizens in the US. Let’s bring back Biden.
https://www.rt.com/news/618858-los-angeles-riots-biden-migrants/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/newsoms-democratic-supporters/
The RT article is a Russian version of what is happening in Los Angeles.
The second link is a video showing the great amount of damage being done to police cars.
Mexican flags. Things that make you go hmmm. Color revolutions are a two-way street. The fake Trump assassination attempt marked the beginning of all future false flags turning away from being in favor of neoliberalism to being in favor of nationalism. Rinse and repeat.
It’s all so cartoonish.
Dr. Phil was embedded with ICE during controversial Los Angeles immigration raids
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/09/media/dr-phil-mcgraw-ice-immigration-raids-los-angeles
This is a CNN (mainstream liberal) view of what happened.
There are a lot of talk about humans being overwhelmed by AI but I have another approach.
Namely humans becoming like AI.
The next stage of evolution is humans becoming like machines, very efficient,
no empathy whatsoever,
no mercy whatsoever,
no slack whatsoever.
That is the next stage of evolution.
Somebody says it is all biology. Well, AI is to transcend biology, and to transcend biological limitations humans will evolve to become like AIs.
Gurdjieff beat you to it a hundred years ago. Humans turning metaphysically mechanical because of their proximity to machine culture is revolutionary not evolutionary. Big difference.
devolutionary not revolutionary
He did not know the AI humans
Rudolph Steiner also warned against these de-humanizing aspects to technology.
Technology and humanity cannot coexist.
i–vant–your–clothes–your–boots—and —your—motorcycle—-
no
what does it take to spell it out???
humans will not become machines…..
machines will not become machines….
no matter how many times you watch terminator….
(And I love that opening scene too….hilarious)
On the contrary
A large portion of US police/sheriff/legal enforcement are completely desensitized over killing since they know the jury will always acquit them so they have no feelings whatsoever
That is just one of the examples. The traders who make big money tend not to feel anything, other than making money.
Today’s civ drivers are doing their best to shed humanity all feelings and emotions since they are no more than distractions
I never like your no mercy line but it seems to agree with the MPP folks. The take it all for yourself now as fast as you can. Same deal no empathy, no slack.
Strongly different views about the riots in California:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/media-calls-riots-peaceful-los-angeles-burns
More California problems. Will California eventually secede, or will it be thrown out first?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/newsom-nightmare-ca-governor-faces-criminal-tax-evasion-warning-amid-la-riot-chaos
this is classic end of empire stuff. Newsom is positioning himself for a presidential run (and let me add my 2 cents. Kamala is an idiot, but Newsom is a loathsome figure who would rapidly advance the breakup of the US).
Trump is flailing, as he has done since the beginning of his presidency. Perhaps it is the only way, since he is boxed in every which way by the deep state. I think that, except for messages delivered verbally by Witkoff to the Russians, everything can be blocked or has been blocked.
I totally agree with your take on Gel-Hair Man. If you want to fast track a Nation to the dustbin of history, then Newsom is the guy to do it. He out-slicks, Slick Willie.
I remember watching a video of a woman in panic during the Palisades fires and he literally lied to her face. She knew it and confronted him on his lies.
He has totally FUBARED California and he was responsible for pushing the Bill to encourage Shoplifting. But you know what? America is so far gone that they will vote him in, thanks to the Media’s hatred of Trump and Vance.
Notice the twin, dueling political inversions in service of future Conservative Left national socialism: Left neoliberals taking the decentralized, Conservative, republicanist, constitutionalist anti- federal taxation position, and the Conservative Right taking the totalitarian, Left neoiberal, big government federal tax police just a couple months after Trump talked about doing away with federal taxes because…tariffs lol. Sometimes a good baker doesn’t mix ingredients; a good baker folds.
I think you are saying something interesting but your writing is too dense.
Thanks for caring Ed. It didn’t help that I accidentally left out the word position after the word police. If you’re gonna write densely because sometimes there’s the most overall value in that, you can’t afford to make mistakes.
this is how secession begins
it might take 50 years, but people will look back to this decade and realise this where it started….
why and how now????
because this is when the end of cheap surplus fuels started to bite…..
And, as I’ve said before….the massive threat lies in denial…
nutcase politicians tell us growth is forever, but it clearly is not…
so blame jews—-mexicans…. Canadians….Russians…
anyone but the truth. Just like any car, run out of fuel and it stops…..civilisation is no different…no plots, no conspiracies, no AI…..
We’ve run out of gas folks.
Again….. Mid 2020s anybody??
The implicit support of the CA governor and government for the conflict over illegal immigration in CA POSSIBLY demonstrates how critical illegal underpaid immigrant work is to CA’s economy. Wage slavery is nowhere near as bad as actual slavery, but you can gain some idea of how important it must be if you think of the challenge to illegal immigration like asking the plantation-based economy of the pre-Civil War South to give up slaves. It changes the owners’ profitability too much. For businesses like hotels and restaurants, and agriculture, it may be the difference between being in or out of business.
Re: CA seceding, I don’t think it will happen anytime soon, CA needs the FedGov support for education and Medicaid, food stamps, etc. in order to support the underpayment of wages, but it would be interesting to find out how many CA residents fled CA before the effective date of secession, if they knew they might be trapped there, unable to escape whatever fiscal and tax hell they would become prisoners of. Ironically, thus losing US citizenship, they might have to move to Mexico or other South American country favorable to US emigration to preserve their wealth and way of life.
That is a good point about how critical illegal underpaid immigrant work is to California’s economy. Interesting comparison to asking the US South pre-civil war economy to give up its slaves.
Kevin says that now USDT (Tether) moves more money than the US economy. And yes, Tether is all outside the US. de-dollarization by somewhat unexpected means.
(Tether also buys and owns more US treasuries than most other single entities worldwide)
This is worth watching. Kevin Walmsley says that China has set up a new world trading system, operating in Hong Kong. It operates using the stable coin “tether.” As a stable coin, the value is tied to the US dollar.
Tether is not available in the US; it is marketed elsewhere. Trades can take place through tethers, without ever going through a US bank.
This new market operating out of Hong Kong has grown incredibly since 2020. It now processes as much in transactions ($27 trillion per year) as the amount of US GDP –also $27 trillion.
Trading is already moving rapidly away from the US $, whether we realize it on not!
I confess I don’t understand it. However, since it is a very large buyer of Treasuries, it’s a closet way of supporting the dollar. It will buy Treasuries as foreign buyers stop buying Treasuries. Since it is used as a “currency” in trade, but is in fact based on Treasuries, it’s just a derivative of and proxy for the dollar. I think it’s a not-so-clandestine US way of supporting the dollar, and I’m sure the government is behind it.
Good point!
at 110B, they own 0.3% of the bonds issued. money velocity is how de-dollarization is still happening. Instead of bonds held for years, bonds held for one day and moved around, with headquarters in Cayman, UAE and HK.
Another good point.
Good that you got the right video because as usual wordpress is giving me another video. USDT is in fact available in the USA, I use both USDT and USDC to move money out of the USA (buy on coinbase, send to my cold wallet, sell P2P). But the size of the trade is truly enormous, and I would add that Dubai is similar in size to HK right now. Note also turnover. Tether has 110B in treasuries, and moves 30T+ per year. Every USDT, if you are keeping track, changes hands about every day.
Do you still use FireFox? That was always a culprit for video swapping.
why yes. I do have also Opera. I certainly do not want to use the Apple or google products for my browsing.
The world has changed: This Ugandan woman grows food for sale in her tiny backyard garden
https://youtu.be/MgJxUDK-iPQ?si=Fzq4Ac_WXLaqVV_s
Oh, container gardening…yes, remember having a book on that title…very productive and hands on..
From what I know about Uganda, most women there are thin. The woman with this garden is overweight. She must be eating things other than the produce she is selling.
My sister Lois has been to Uganda a few times. She says that some women pray, “God, make me fat,” so that they would be more attractive. They eat only one meal a day, in the evening. It is mostly vegetables and carbohydrates. They use a lot of energy during the day. But these are women in villages. This woman seems to live in a city , where more Westernized things are available.
China’s Geely to stop building new car plants amid severe global overcapacity: Li Shufu
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/other/china-s-geely-to-stop-building-new-car-plants-amid-severe-global-overcapacity-li-shufu/ar-AA1GmaNT?ocid=BingNewsSerp
This fits in with other things we have heard. Not enough people can afford the EVs that are being made. They are also not very practical, without many inexpensive charing stations available.
The problem of low prices leads to some carmakers going out of business. s production falls, the amount of steel needed falls, as does the amount of coal and various minerals, such as copper. This declining demand tends to push commodity prices down. Indirectly, it leads to falling production.
” Let me try to list where I think we stand in terms of “existential risks,” that is, civilization-destroying events. I classified them into three categories of risk: Low, Medium, and High, at least in my opinion. Of course, if you are good eschatologists, you know that we are dealing with a complex system, and everything in a complex system is linked to everything else. The result is a sort of Jenga tower game, where you take out a critical piece, and the whole thing comes down.
Here is my take on ten elements potentially able to cause a global societal collapse. I start from less likely civilization-smashers, to truly humongous monsters waiting to devour us to the bone. Some risks that were popular up to not long ago (e.g., peak oil) turn out to be not so monstrous after all, while some new ones (e.g., killer drones) are stealing the scene. ”
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/collapse-revisited-how-do-we-stand?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1514235&post_id=165455428&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=26quge&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Good lord, he really can’t do without the attention. Maybe he expected more from vegetable gardening, but found he can not grow a decent tomato. I am sort of tempted to teach him so he can un-un-retire.
Kind of a fluff piece but it’s interesting in that at least he breaks out various vectors to discuss and indicates what is now more obvious, that peak oil and peak resources aren’t likely to lead to the kind of utterly catastrophic collapse we feared, more like JMG’s catabolic collapse.
I disagreed most with his assessment that drones would be a new vector of depopulation, although I very much liked his assessment that we were moving from a consumer waste system to a war waste system:
“War-generated collapse. Overall risk: high. It seems that the world’s economic system is orienting itself toward a war-based economy, that is, producing goods which are destined to be used, destroyed, and discarded on the battlefield. That’s an alternative to the current system that used to imply the production of goods to be used, destroyed, and discarded by customers. Hence, the new economic system doesn’t need consumers anymore, and that’s obviously worrisome for the consumers. Let’s just say that up to now, nuclear warheads were the cheapest way to kill people, but they were unwieldy, cumbersome, and caused lots of collateral damage. Using drones to exterminate people is less expensive per kill, and surely generates less collateral damage. Drones can take over, and that wouldn’t be good for humans.”
I believe the simplest and most effective way to massively depopulate the West or First World, which by far consumes and wastes the most resources required to provide and support its form of living, and is responsible for the greatest damage to the ecosystem and the rapidity of depletion of resources, is a handful of EMP nuclear explosions taking out the electric grids and satellite communication networks. Also, no transportation. No more gas or diesel ICEs, can’t pump it into tanks, etc. No nuclear winter, limited radiation, massive die-off within a year as few people will be able to live without electricity. Risk is high, though, because the nuclear subs will still be able to launch an all-out attack, turning large portions of land and water into nuclear wastelands.
He also didn’t mention the slow-kill methods now being deployed that will bring about much shorter life spans, including the governmental austerity programs cutting health and welfare benefits. Won’t lead to collapse, it’s one of the ameliorative countermeasures, that will make what’s left go further.
This is a Ugo Bardi post. I don’t agree with much of it at all. I wish he could see the bigger picture.
I think that he does see the bigger picture. You need to read his post at least twice to understand that he has got new data and new models that we don’t know. The key is here: “Again, the population slowdown will help a lot and, if we think about maintaining at least a minimum vital level of energy supply, we should be able to do that.”
This is where their last hope is.
Professor has the birds lined up in the row but not in the correct order . What is he missing ?
1 . The connectivity between all the 10 events . The Domino theory will prevail . If one goes down all go down . This has been called a poly crisis , meta crisis , etc but I call it the ” Perfect Storm ” . Don’t tell me it cannot happen — Fukushima , Chernobyl , Deepwater Horizon , Katrina etc .
2. All 10 events are subordinate to the Liebig’s law of the minimum .
In the neighboring town of Red Hook the supervisor wants to use eminent domain to take the boat club property on the Hudson to make a parking spot for his billionaire friend’s super yacht. The town is turning into a Jewish slum, lots of apartments for the goy to pay rent on. A college for rich chews from Manhattan paid for by George Soros via Tides Foundation via USAID.
Interesting, hopefully they can also purchase a vacation GAZA condo on the Mediterranean coast once those awful little people “leave” and a Trump tower is built, like in Syria. Yes, indeed, couldn’t make this stuff up.
Sorry you are dealing with this “invasion”
Invasion?
“Over 23 million illegal immigrants have crossed into the U.S. since Biden took office.
Of those, 2 million were gotaways — no identification, no vetting, no oversight.
Among them:
Chinese military-age males, ages 18–35
Hezbollah Unit 910 operatives trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
ISIS, ISIL, Al-Qaeda, Taliban militants
Cartel enforcers and MS-13
And foreign intelligence assets embedded in our urban centers
These people are not here by accident.
They are waiting for activation — and the “Summer of Love 2.0” may be their green light.
Strategic Overview: What’s Really Happening
Trump has 20,000 troops on the border, not just to stop crossings — but to rapidly deploy across the U.S. within 12 hours if needed. This isn’t just defense. It’s offensive readiness.
He knew this was coming.
He’s been waiting for the Deep State, the CCP, and globalist agents to make their move.
Now they are — and the script is unfolding:
1. Ignite chaos in sanctuary cities
2. Force Trump to deploy military under Insurrection Act
3. Spin it as fascism
4. Drain U.S. resources in domestic unrest
5. Trigger China’s Taiwan invasion while America is distracted
6. Escalate war with Putin before Trump can regain control
We are now in the prelude phase of full-spectrum warfare.”?
https://redpillproject.substack.com/p/the-firestorm-approaches
There are invasions and then there are “invasions”
Right-wing nonsense
And the beat goes on….
Ball of confusion
Oh yeah, that’s what the world is today
Woo, hey, hey
The sale of pills are at an all time high
Young folks walking round with their heads in the sky
The cities ablaze in the summer time
And oh, the beat goes on
Evolution, revolution, gun control, sound of soul
Shooting rockets to the moon, kids growing up too soon
Politicians say more taxes will solve everything
And the band played on
Eve of destruction, tax deduction, city inspectors, bill collectors
Mod clothes in demand, population out of hand, suicide, too many bills
The sale of pills are at an all time high
Young folks walking round with their heads in the sky
The cities ablaze in the summer time
And oh, the beat goes on
Song by The Temptations ‧ 1970
H.P. Lovecraft a century ago:
“The idea that black magic exists in secret today, or that hellish antique rites still exist in obscurity, is one that I have used and shall use again. When you see my new tale “The Horror at Red Hook”, you will see what use I make of the idea in connexion with the gangs of young loafers & herds of evil-looking foreigners that one sees everywhere in New York.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Horror_at_Red_Hook
My condolences. Over a decade ago when I lived in Westchester County, my wife and I used to kayak on the Hudson with a group and and many times we stopped at Red Hook, beautiful town. It’s horrible to see everything you love turn into rentier hell
Perhaps too much attention is being paid to differences among people.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/when-diversity-divides
Is this all related to complexity? Grouping so there is less variation makes groups easier to teach. They have a shared identity. Not long ago, it was religions that divided people. Now we have found some new ways of dividing folks.
This is Divide & Conquer masked and Inclusiveness. People fall for the rhetoric, they aren’t able to see through this fog, specially because people are terrible measuring consequences, more even second-degree, third-degree, etc.
And also, since Marx (before, actually, but let’s put that aside), the masses of people have been manipulated with Resentment. Nietzsche talked about it. All of these modern ideologies are just elites taking advantage of slave morality to stir misery among their own people.
When I graduated there was one unified graduation. Of course there were basically zero blacks, zero latinos, zero lgbt…, and of course almost all were jewish.
Yes, indeed, Ed. On my block in New Jersey only one Heb family, and they were unique. Very colorful people
I think the father owned a restaurant.
Basically, the borough was either Italian or Irish.
Boy, has society changed..I enjoy watching commercials on TV now with the diversity of the “modern family”
Completely agree!
Deception and the art of war (herding). The Hand in all its herding wisdom knew that the only way to get the Conservative Right to become the Conservative Left of national socialism was to get them to believe that they were attempting to be poisoned to death in various ways as part of a depopulation agenda.
https://www.zerohedge.com/food/make-it-make-sense-why-are-we-punishing-farmers-doing-right-thing
Excerpt:
Organic farming is more expensive than farming using the standard chemicals. The problem I see is that even if the extra costs were eliminated, it would not be possible to sell organic food as cheaply as “regular” food.
Furthermore, people are limited by their wages and other demands on their incomes. They will not buy high-priced food if they cannot afford it.
I know I buy some organic food, but not a whole lot. I buy organic eggs and greens for salads. The soy milk I buy is organic. I buy organic apples.
Right. Everything is consumer society going to get more expensive in real terms from here on out. This is not about organic food competing with conventional food in the bourgeois or working class marketplaces.
The Hand’s demographic triangulation of Conservative Left national socialism these last 9, 10 ten years — since Trump’s first election — is for weathering a post- consumer society after finance capitalism collapses. National socialism has always been an agrarian socialist ideology. German volkishness, Pol Pot’s agrarian socialism. Growing food with fewer fossil fuels and many more people, in service of a rationing system, and national ideology. All hands on deck!
Right, “organic farming” is “more expensive” because of he external costs are not factored in with industrial corporate planation driven crop and animal raising, along with all the other mentioned supports…been that way for over a half century…remember one cabinet at sec saying
Get Big or Get Out…think his name was Earl Butz
Earl L. Butz, who orchestrated a major change in federal farm policy as secretary of agriculture during the 1970s but came to be remembered more for a vulgar racial comment that brought about his resignation during the 1976 presidential election race, died Saturday in Washington. Mr. Butz, who lived in West Lafayette, Ind., was 98.
But he was criticized by Democrats in Congress who viewed him as the voice of “agribusiness,” the corporate agricultural interests, at the expense of small farmers and consumers.
Why the old order usually returns in the end
People are used to the old order, and they are ultimately uncomfortable with the new order.
Old Order largely returned in the central european countries since there were people who still remembered the old order and they quickly reverted back to the old ways.
However, in Russia it failed because there were so much destruction in World War 2 which destroyed a lot of old documents, and also those who remembered the old ways would have been over 80 when USSR imploded.
Local social order does not die that easily since the ruling family is related to the police, the fire dept, the school, the church, and virtually all aspects of social order so it is virtually impossible to eliminate them all, so if any of these survive the old order will return with a vengeance.
Did German aristocracy ever regain lands that were lost in the east after WWII?
ChatGPT said:
No, the German aristocracy did not regain lands lost in the East after World War II.
Here’s a breakdown of what happened:
1. Loss of Eastern Territories
After WWII, Germany lost a large portion of its eastern territories—including East Prussia, Silesia, and Pomerania—under the Potsdam Agreement (1945). These areas were transferred to Poland and the Soviet Union, and the German populations (including aristocrats) were expelled, often violently.
2. Expropriation without Compensation
The new governments (especially in communist Poland and the USSR) confiscated the land without compensation. This included:
Estates owned by the Junkers (Prussian landed aristocracy)
Castles and large manors
Agricultural holdings
These were redistributed in land reforms or nationalized.
3. No Restitution After 1990
After German reunification in 1990, there were some property restitution programs in the former East Germany (GDR), but not in Poland or Russia, where most of the eastern lands had been.
The German government renounced all claims to former eastern territories in treaties such as:
The Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany (1990)
The German-Polish Border Treaty (1990)
These treaties effectively closed the door to restitution or territorial claims.
4. Legal Action Failed
Some descendants of aristocratic families tried to reclaim property through the European Court of Human Rights and other legal venues. These efforts were mostly unsuccessful, as the courts upheld postwar expropriations as lawful under the political context of the time.
Summary:
No, the German aristocracy never regained their lands lost in the East after WWII. The land losses were permanent, legally recognized by Germany, and never reversed.
It was a hit or miss process, actually.
Those whose land fell into Polish or Russian hands did not recover their lands
Those who sold their land before 1949, when the East German Govt seized all the properties, did not get their land back
However the rest did recover their properties, or at least were compensated for that
Similar processes occurred in Warsaw, where residents who lived in the neighborhood for years were forcibly removed by the old landowners, Prague and many other locales in the old East Bloc. Even if the property was not returned outright, the local authorities could not prevent the old owners buying back their old property with hard currency. The old owners promptly reestablished the old order in no time.
One reason the Cuban regime still stands now is because the old owners are very insistent on getting back their land and reestablish the old order, even after all these time. Practically everyone who had a property there had left, and most of them still have their old deeds, now stored in many databases, and re waiting for the day they can return and kick out or re-enslave all the denizens who live in their old properties.
How the old order returns after a chaos
Usually, the ruling family of a region knows the land very well and it tends to control the police and other departments of the region, and a lot of people who actually have power tend to come from the ruling clan or at least somehow related.
After a chaos the social structure is damaged, but since the family’s control of the region is so firm, and nature abhors chaos, the old ruling family will use their police and military connections to reclaim the land, and will simply eliminate all the survivors who have nothing to do with it without questions. All the men killed, women taken. After killing off everyone who would not agree with the old family, they resume their domination of the region as if nothing happened since there would be no one to check them.
The forgotten Russian author Ivan Bunin wrote a story called the Sukhodol, which means Dry Valley.
It talks about the fall of a landowner family called the Khrushchevs (which means Nikita came from a landowner clan since nobody would have heard that name when the story came out in 1912 when the Czar was still ruling.)
Long story short, after the ruling family collapsed, the entire region becomes desolate, and return to wilderness , which means civilization ends in that part of land, with the last survivors of the family, a daughter in law and her servant Natalia, who is the protagonist of the tale, sharing a room in a still standing shack.
The Russians made a movie out of it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PECLvrLLgNw&t=5096s&pp=ygUQYnVuaW4gZHJ5IHZhbGxleQ%3D%3D
Obviously made with a tiny budget, the landscape looks like it is post nuclear war. Not much happens in that movie, so knowledge of Russian is not really needed, and at the end of the movie the landowner dies and everyone just becomes catatonic. The only thing which could be done was play some music.
Another post apocalyptic movie is Bela Tarr’s movie The Turin horse. it is in Hungarian but again not much happens
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD-1PGGO7Xs&pp=ygULdHVyaW4gaG9yc2U%3D
In the end the father , daughter and horse return to their house, about to be swept by a sandstorm of unknown origin, to die since they cannot leave. They, even the horse, refuse to eat anymore.
Compared to that, followers of the old ruling family would find serving their old lord and oppresser to be preferable so they will gladly eliminate those who the ruling family will find uncomfortable with.
Why I think any conflict with China over Taiwan would be a fumblefest. China, with no experience in fighting a war ( the exact opposite of Russia), would trip over its own shoelaces, ie. the false promise of all its hardware and Potemkin military village wearing nice clean pressed uniforms but with no battle hardened soldiers wearing them, vs the woeful paper tiger clout of the US due to logistical problems (oil, munitions, and repair) and lack of ability to fight in an all out total war situation with a peer or near peer opponent, even if only in conventional conflict.
The US had trouble fighting in a “phone booth.” How is it going to be able to prevail in a large regional conflict? We’ve already stumbled in the mountains of Afghanistan, the jungles of Vietnam and now Yemen. An even bigger fiasco would ensue in a NATO war Russia or Iran. And Israel isn’t doing so hot in Gaza and Lebanon either.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-navy-warship-captain-said-115402768.html
well the world needs a little humor and also a little depop.
As long as the US government is writing the stories of what happens in the conflict for the US population, and China is writing the stories of what happens for the Chinese population, everyone will think that the situation is fine and normal. The conflict will give an excuse for more debt for both countries, helping to hold the economies of both countries together a bit longer.
The 1920’s were a curious time for the human sciences. The study of eugenics was openly discussed and seriously thought about. Another way of looking at eugenics is a bifurcation of ‘Who is Worthy’, and ‘Who is not Worthy’?
Reading the H.G. Wells novel The Time Machine, I thought it was an average science fiction novel. Only in the last few years I discovered the writings of H.G.Wells from around 1928.
The Open Conspiracy (Blue Prints for a World Revolution) by H.G. Wells
https://dn721808.ca.archive.org/0/items/the-open-conspiracy-h.-g.-wells/The%20Open%20Conspiracy%20-%20H.%20G.%20Wells.pdf
This was not a novel but a 60 odd page ‘Manifesto’, which made me realise that the Time Machine was a ‘glimpse’ of his manifesto in action. It’s not unreasonable to think that HG Wells The Open Conspiracy, was a kind of ‘first draftt’ of what we see today as The Great Reset.
Reading through the lens of 1920’s eugenics thinking, it develops a world of ‘The Worthy ~ Morlocks’ and ‘The Not Worthy ~ Eloi’
Fast Forward to 2025, and The Great Reset looks remarkably like a ‘final draft’, of (Worthy) & (Not Worthy)?
On these threads we know we are headed for an Oil-less world. There are folk within the elite, who also know we are close to an Oil-less world.
The difference is, we are willing to discuss it, whilst the elite want to deal with it *secretly* to their best interests.
So how do they expect to push us back into a ‘Feudal Box’ of Not-Worthy, whilst they retain their elevated status of,.. Worthy?
Here in the West, no matter which democratically elected government we get, they seem to enact weird policies which point to the ‘fact?’ that “They Hate Us” !
But that can’t be true,.. surely?
If we look closer, we see that the folk in the West who are ‘getting the proverbial baseball bat to their head’, are people who have grown up with First~World~Expectations. The people crossing our Western borders have Thrid~World~Expectations, and they seem to be getting the treats right now.
In an increasingly Oil-less world the folk with ‘a Constitution’, ‘inalienable Rights’, ‘Human Rights, ‘a Magna Carter 1215’, ‘a right to drive and fly where and when they want’ are problematic for the (Worthy) elites, who are trying to control the last few years of fossil energy, …. and keep it all to themselves.
In short :
Third Worlder’s, are low ‘energy’ maintenance.
First Worlder’s, are high ‘energy’ maintenance.
To me, all the weirdness in today’s politics now make sense.
Our governments don’t necessarily hate *us*. It’s just that as fossil energy disappears in the decades ahead, folk with First World Expectations need to be crushed into the Box marked [ A Society of Feudal Third World Expectations].
Are you ready to become Third World ‘Eloi ~ slaves’, as the First World ‘Morlock ~ masters’, fly above you in their private jets? H.G. Wells would approve this message.
David Butler 8/6/2025
Living in today’s world, we don’t understand how unrealistic most people’s expectations are for the long term. Nearly everyone assumes that things are constantly getting better, and population is growing. Businesses will prosper in such a situation.
In fact, the situation is changing dramatically. It is hard to open our eyes to the problem. Nearly all of us are high energy maintenance folks, I am afraid. We can’t imagine a world without all kinds of “rights” and privileges.
David , bullseye . What can you take from a guy living on FREE 5 Kg wheat/rice per month , a lungi and whose only asset are the utensils in his kitchen ? This is lower than ” low maintenance ”
The Eloi were the aristocrats of Wells’ day and the Morlock was the lower class of his day.
So it is curious that you saw the morlock as being chosen.
The capitalist economy needs to grow indefinitely: population, energy, materials, space, complexity. Degrowth leads to cataclysm. In the last centuries, growth had been growing by the most minimal values.
Currently we are seeing esoteric elites staging the Revelation and preparing a New Messias. The system being established is only needed for a relatively short time and is not even meant to be held upright.
From my point of view, though, they are underestimating the cataclysm and the challenges of restarting civilisation again.
Perhaps I dont see the whole picture? I think, they are trying to de-link large parts of the world as they had tested with the Sovjet Union, and keep high technology in some areas from which they plan to expand again later into the empty spaces.
I think this is not possible, because a certain degree of extraction leads to extraction costs that cannot be re-generated, especially not by smaller societies with less productivity.
Norman Pagett says
June 7, 2025 at 5:14 pm
“the fact remains that waged people buy goods and services, AI buys nothing at all…”
There a historical precedence for why they think wages are unnecessary.
The history of slavery.
The history of slavery proves that it is possible to have viable civilizations with few high wage workers. The past of civilization suggests only a small percentage of workers had a wage at all. There was no problem unless there wasn’t enough for those slaves to survive.
i made the silly assumption that we were discussing the economic system in which we all live…..now….
an economic system based on slave energy input is ultimately unsustainable… ultimately guarding and feeding slaves consumes all surpluses…..an unfed slave just dies…
yes you can produce and sell cotton, but that requires viable markets elsewhere….
forms of civilisation can exist on barter, but these are very low key, not in our modern context at all, just village or very small town level—nothing more.
Apparently, our present “system” that we’re discussing is unsustainable also. Those base on forced labor could last for thousands of years (ie Egyptian, China, Greece, Roman)
After the great simplification as it is sometimes termed, we revert back to forced labor (slavery). Won’t take much, in the meanwhile, to institute a Stalin Gulag system or Hitter German concentration camp network. I’m old in my late 60s so need not worry about being selected for such. More likely will be turned into animal feed for what corporate warehouse chicken operators are operating…maybe my skin will make a lampshade ..
Then you will illuminate all our lives Mike…..In any event you are but a slip of a lad compared to me—I can write history from personal experience—all I need now is a blue plaque on the wall
Indeed
If we read books from Thomas Hardy or William Faulkner, similar arrangements did exist in UK and USA well into the first part of 20th century
Civilization found a new slave, called petroleum, but now it is ending, they will return to human slaves, musings from an ex dentist notwithstanding.
When will drones be used by individuals within a nation?
Drones are used now by individuals to take photos.
I suppose that already, individuals could figure out a way to send a bomb to hit something they are not happy with. It could be a building, or an expensive vehicle, or a business. It might be difficult to kill a particular person with a drone.
Why is there no create a better distribution of wealth movement in the US, EU, Japan, Korea, KSA?
because most people in these countries are already prosperous, so we go about our daily lives doing what we can and want to do.
I am guessing that you also are prosperous.
surely you are not impoverished.
I am fine. My three sons choose not to reproduce.
My son in Beijing and his “girlfriend” with a PhD from Peking University, a job in the number one, tier one city, with a wonderful “boyfriend” chooses not to reproduce. Even with a father an active politician and mother a comfortably retired lawyer does not see the world as acceptable to inflict on a child. They are comfortable but they do not have a reason to believe in the future.
our prosperity hopefully will last the rest of our days.
I’m mid 60s, fair chance that my short “future” will be fine.
too bad for young people, they may see severe degrowth in their lifetimes.
the Universe doesn’t owe anyone any prosperity, but it’s nice to have.
Right on
unfotunately, the jesusfreaks do think the universe is reserved for them because they pray to the one true god……
this of course applies to all the other godnuts who have the same certainty and will kill to prove it—with gods blessing naturally……
No judgment Ed, a guess:
1. We have no way of knowing the future, life is not something which is inflicted on someone.
2. There is a future whether or not we believe in one.
Agreed, it is going to be different; we are biology, earth is made for biology, it will go on whether we or our descendants are part of it or not.
There is sometimes a question asked of those who chose not to have children for these reasons, “Would you rather not have been born? ”
Dennis L.
There can be good in each day, no matter how limited a person’s financial circumstances. If you can in some way help someone else, that can bring joy to both of you.
A person’s needs are not great. Food to eat, and a bed in a location away from the elements are helpful. In some warm parts of the world, a person can even sleep outside.
Why birthrates continue to decline in Japan by CHS.
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/japan-social-inflexibility-and-decline?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1692393&post_id=165434197&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=4cyn7j&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
I have been commenting at his site once in a while lately.
this is my comment to that article:
CHS: “Many societies are in need of a reordering of inflexible social norms and values. Our obsessive focus on economic-financial statistics serves to distract us from the need for fundamental social change rather than PR policy tweaks and feel-good trivialized counter-examples.”
in a way, it’s too late for Japan.
the Japan model worked for quite a few decades, by importing resources (especially energy resources) and doing value-added manufacturing to create a good export economy and to gain prosperity.
(Germany, among others, is failing at this model also.)
besides Japan’s other problems, the greatest problem is there and everywhere, and that is of course obviously the new era which has now begun of declining surplus energy, which must bring a declining secondary financial economy to Japan also.
Japan must get poorer and poorer for the next few decades.
any good news?
maybe as Industrial Civilization winds down in Japan, in their poverty perhaps the people will regain a balance of work and life, perhaps a “reordering” of their “social norms and values”.
The inflexible social norms have been a source of stability in Japan.
It is only now that limits are being reached. Trying to replace the current stable system with something else likely will not work, unless there is great support for the change.
Right now, huge governmental debt is a problem. I imagine this problem is not much discussed in Japan. When the bubble collapses, the system will have to adjust.
The Han fight to protect the Han. The Russians fight to protect the Russians. The Europeans fight to kill off the Europeans. In the US about half fight to kill off Americans.
Why are whites unable to protect themselves?
What whites? Nordics? Alpines? Mediterreneans? Celts?
hehehe I am an American as long as the women are not waving their massive fat buttocks up and down to indicate they are in heat…..
The British is the culprit. I have seen lots of unrepentant Brits who think killing whites was a great achievement while their homes are overrun by Asians and Africans.
Bonfire of the Patriot missles in Ukraine
Tax payers money literally going up in smoke. Trump was supposed to ‘end the war in 24 hours’, then ‘100 days’. The bloke is a warmonger. War in Gaza, war against the Houthis, mouthing off at Iran, keeping the Ukraine proxy war going. Trump is not fooling anyone with his bizarre hippy stage act.
USA produces about 500 patriot air defence missiles a year at up to $6M per item and Ukraine fires them off like fireworks every time Russia sends over a few cheap missiles. USA is unable to significantly boost patriot missile production and stocks are heavily depleted now.
China would chew USA up and spit it out. Patriots cannot stop modern hypersonic missiles anyway, they were not designed to do so, and no one says that they can. They are basically useless now anyway. The USA has already lost its hegemony and it is just embarrassing itself in Ukraine now.
Video of the bonfire of the taxes:
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1931411017906765847
An underground bunker containing 56 Storm Shadow missiles, 32 Patriot air defense missiles and 53 ATACMS missiles was destroyed in Ternopol.
These missiles were delivered to Ukraine 5 days ago.
ooo ooo ooo a beautiful small mushroom cloud (non nuclear obviously).
the USevilEmpire is still loaded with psychowoketards who want to do damage all over the world, then the US gov funds the MIC to make more weapons of course.
it’s a pleasant thought on a pleasant summer evening that the USevilEmpire will no longer exist later this century.
The powers that be do not want to give up and go home.
This is no surprise. Hydrogen isn’t really a fuel; it is a carrier of energy from other sources.
How Hydrogen, the Fuel of the Future, Got Bogged Down in the Bayou
Air Products bet big on the element, but sentiment has soured, costs are snowballing and customers remain elusive
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/how-hydrogen-the-fuel-of-the-future-got-bogged-down-in-the-bayou-36131eb6
Key Points:
–Air Products’ Louisiana hydrogen plant faces delays, cost increases and customer uncertainty.
–Hydrogen’s potential as an alternative fuel is challenged by high costs, limited government support and delayed adoption by key industries.
–Air Products’ new chief executive, Eduardo Menezes, canceled a plan to produce hydrogen-based jet fuel in Paramount, Calif.
End of the night of living dead
https://youtu.be/X6IDNqHuHmE?si=15excdwsDWgOFz1b
The hard assed sherrif kills Ben, the protagonist, although Ben was not a zombie.
The Sheriff does not give a shit that Ben is not a zombie or not 0- anyone in that side was a zombie in the Sheriff’s eyes. And Ben is thrown with the heap of bonfire along with other zombies so Ben’s family will never know what happened to Ben.
George Romero had to spend a lot of time explain this was not racist, but that is not my point. It did not matter whether Ben was black or not. My ancestors tended to be hard assed as well, and they never asked when they punished those who were under them.
I laugh at the survivalists. That’s the treatment they will get when Order is restored.
When order is restored the owners of the world will use such people to clean up all the survivalist communities with cold blood. Happened many times post crisis – people formed their survivalist communes but the authorities did not give a shit. They just killed all the men and divided the women among themselves.
I laugh at the Canadian Prepper, a black man in the Canadian outdoors. he and his family won’t last too long when his neighbors gang up on him.
Which might be why today’s winners are not too concerned about the increasing number of third worlders now.
Those who were close to the winners when the Day arrives will be the ones inheriting the world. The survivalists will be put down with the utmost brutality.
The winners? who are they?
When the day arrives how will I recognise a ‘winner’?
Is it those ‘top dogs’ with money, cars, servants, fall out shelters, said to be stocked with everything? Well they sound like winners before this Day came but what have they got now? Will they restore order while the unwashed masses panic in the streets. Are they automatically ‘owners of the world’
A world with no electricity, no communication, no fuel other than whats at hand. Transport, but only while the fuel lasts.
And do they go out into the streets and shout ‘we are the authority do as we say’, ‘We need you strong able people to ‘help’ us get everything back to normal.’
We have food, water, shelter and guns’.
Yes, they might get some takers but how long does their food, and ammo last,and what then.
As for going after survivalists, why even try yet.
They need food and fuel for their new (untrained) army to get more food and scavenge for fuel right now.
Wonder what their methods are for restoring the glories of civilisation.
The true survivalists have headed for their planned retreat which they have kept secret from Everybody. Never mentioned it on any media or to friends and somehow hiding any formal pointers to their location, I.E. land rates notices etc.
It will be tough and many won’t survive, running out of food, conflict with other survivalists.
But some will survive and needn’t worry about ‘authorities coming for a while provided they chose a good retreat location. And then after a while they will have organised their own lookouts, retreat or attack plans etc.
Just because they had the smarts to be a survivalist doesn’t mean they don’t know what the ‘authorities’ or whatever passes for some sort of control elsewhere are likely to try against survivalists.
The ‘authority’s’ will soon run out of food (their ‘army’ won’t be farmers) so survivalists will look like the best targets (if they can locate them).
Well it will be interesting to me but I won’t be part of either group.
Having reached the mid eighty’s and feeling the physical and mental effects starting to show the inevitable deterioration, I will do what I can from where I am at the time and that’s all.
We know that epidemics played a big role in reducing population in the past. Perhaps a reason for the epidemics was to prevent this kind of thing.
Emigration also played a role in the past, but it is hard to see how it can work now. Today, everywhere is overpopulated if we don’t have fossil fuels.
Perhaps a good strategy is to take each day as it comes. We should be thankful that we have had it as good as we have, for as long as we have. We should be thankful for the time we have had with our families.
Think through your religious beliefs. Be sure that you are ready, if your time comes to an end.
If God is “a self organizing system”, then “to obey to God” means “to do what is necessary in an ever changing world”, to make life and “God’s people” go on. This is, what the Bible teaches in manifold narratives: Noah, Sodom, Israelites.
The trick is to replace “to do what must be done” aka “what God tells me” by the demandings of psychopaths and sadists, who claim that it must be done, what they demand, self-divinification, and that God stands behind them. There are definitely times, when this can lead to some stability, like Rousseau, Humes and Montesquieu said, the group facilitates the life of the individual more than man being a wolf to man. In the moment, where the group starts to kill off it’s members, these narratives don’t tell us to fight, to discuss or to find compromises, but to convince sons and daughters-in-law to carry planks, seeds and breeds in order to make life go on after the big destruction. To do what needs to be done to make human life go on. We have been given love, intelligence, insight and spiritual talents to react on such situations and we are meant to use our talents well.
It is always good, to be prepared. It is a question of personal development. But the duty, being told by these narratives, is to make life go on. Not one’s own life, not the family’s life but “life”.
Now imagine you are a young girl around 20 and you are enjoying a night at the dance, the music playing, a mild summerwind going and people laughing, when your husband’s brother comes to you and says: Last night I had a talk with daddy. He wants us go into the mountains, collect all seeds and breeds, so we can make a new start after the disaster to come. How would you feel? Where would be your love?
The true hero was not the old man!
Today’s top dogs are not stupid and when the Crunch occurs they will retreat to their refugees. Bunkers are for smaller fishes. They will retain fiefdoms in places not on the map , protected by loyal soldiers who will wear a necklace which will b explode unless the Lord disables it every morning or some other way to ensure obedience which they would not advertise, and would have military superiority or any survivalist group most people can name.
The Emperor of Austria had married one of his daughters to Napoleon to ensure he had a place in the latter’s empire. The Czarina of Russia in 1918, Alexandra, a granddaughter of Queen Victoria, was too wed to the English way of never mingling blood so she did not offer her daughters to the local communist cadres, a mistake she paid with her life and something the winners will not forget. One of their daughters/wives/lovers will shackle up with the leader of the security forces to ensure obedience.
Modern warfare is very advanced and the Winner will have enough power to maintain these machinery to some detail, an advantage the survivalists do not have. It will be like Syria or Hezbollahstan.
Usually, when civilization was restored, the losers were enslaved and did slave work until they perished. Nobody will be talking about the 14th amendment after the Crunch and the sruvivalists will become the slaves.
>> Bunkers are for smaller fishes. They will retain fiefdoms in places not on the map , protected by loyal soldiers who will wear a necklace which will b explode unless the Lord disables it every morning
A fantasy. Anyone under such an arrangement would spend every moment thinking of how to escape the mechanism.
Escape to where? To the chaos?
By “escape the mechanism”, I mean get the explosive necklace off and then kill the financier and be the new boss.
You think the hired muscle is going to accept wearing an explosive necklace? Total fantasy.
“For those people who do not know what is going to happen in the next few years, the vast majority of filthy rich Republicans have built underground shelters stocked with food and water as well as lots of alcohol to party with. They do not intend to stay underground for long, as they plan on using Nuclear Weapons to blast Dirt, Dust and Sulfur from dormant volcanoes at high latitudes such as from the Aleutian Islands and mainland Alaska. I have never heard of any mention of Russian Volcanoes. I have been told by others that volcanos at the southern tip of South America may also be used.
The Dirt, Dust and Sulfur will create a nuclear winter that will last 14 to 16 months, last I heard. The Rich will come out of their shelters anytime during the Nuclear Winter, though it would be best to stay underground for at least a few days after the modern Nuclear Bomb Blasts in the dormant volcanoes. Since the modern Nukes are Fusion weapons as opposed to mainly Fission weapons as tested and used during and after WWII, the radiation intensity should be abated within a week or so.
Meanwhile, the people who do not have shelters will gradually die from the cold and the Republican goal of reducing global population to below half a billion as specified on the Georgia Guidestones (Preferably less than 300 million people as the Rich Republicans now tell me) will become a reality.
When the Nuclear Winter wanes, green life will start growing abundantly. The tremendous Green Growth will suck a lot of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Since factories will not be in operation CO2 generation from industry will be a thing of memory. With Billions of people and animals gone, the release of CO2 from animals will also greatly decrease. The Nuclear Winter will have slowed down the release of methane from the melting permafrost. With CO2 decreasing and Methane slowing in its release rate from the permafrost, the climate will come back down to temperatures that were common 20 years ago.
Slowly, temperatures will go down to levels from a century ago. No factories and few people and large animal herds will be gone. If you are a Rich Republican you will rejoice at your good fortune. If you are not rich but alive, the Republicans might enslave you for manual labor, but do not expect any favors. You will just be slave labor and expendable at any time..”?
https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/pfbid0wigqebT7qWyPEgaP7AYF9j8qZV2goQSdYwetoqi8VWipuX7pg6NSm3ebZKkkReByl
I doubt it.
lol post
assuming your comment is not intended as black humour (one never knows)
your thoughts about ”rich people” post collapse are hilarious.
there will be no ‘rich people’
Spot on . It will be what will happen.
Leftist depopulation conspiracy theory. Turnabout is fair play. Good find.
The WSJ has a front-page article called:
The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology
U.S. military fabricated evidence of alien technology and allowed rumors to fester to cover up real secret-weapons programs
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/ufo-us-disinformation-45376f7e
well…..whaddya know….
i said it was BS all along….
next thing we’ll find out that the 911 plots were all BS too
no, granpa, that is evidence based, with millions of witnesses really.
great granpa if you please—-x 8
i recall one witness, a Phd doc in something or other, asserting there were no planes, just holograms projected to the sky…
can’t beat that.
You keep bringing that up Norm, which is fine if you don’t mischaracterize it like you are. Mischaracterizing just makes it a strawman argument and I know you don’t like making strawman arguments. Nobody does.
The true no-planes theory of 9/11 is, firstly, backed by hundreds of commercial pilots (Pilots For Truth organization) who insist that such planes cannot make such turning maneuvers into the towers at sea level at that rate of speed. So you’re already seeing it fit to ridicule hundreds of professionals who, structurally, would know a great deal more than yourself about commercial airliner capabilities.
As to the 3D daytime plane holography — which is the only reasonable explanation once planes have been eliminated from the list of possibilities — that technology now exists in public domain. As I recall it was debuted commercially around 2010 or whatever, with a 3D holographic Tupac concert, which is classic Hand behavior since the Hand killed Tupac for the same reason it killed Bob Marley: too many whites getting pied-pipered out of the Matrix.
But obviously the 3D holography needed a vehicle, which is what you leave out. That vehicle was obviously a missile, with mounted projectors.
A guided missile would explode upon impact with structural steel columns and concrete slabs, thereby making it appear to fully penetrate the building. Most of a light, hollow, flimsy plane would obviously end up on the sidewalk, yet what we got as I recall from the cordoned-off area was a single planted landing gear and a single planted terrorist passport. LOL.
planted?
I chunk of landing is pretty big to move around surreptitiously
It was one wheel with an axle stub. Would fit on a pallet in a box truck or covered on a trailer. Planting a passport is admittedly easier.
” planes were flown into buildings on 9/11.”?
Modelled?
” . . . videos not fake, but somethings about the planes were fake . . . “?
https://www.richplanet.net/richp_genre.php?ref=291&part=1&gen=3
Doctor Judy Wood, a mechanical engineer, said she laughed out loud when she saw the “plane” penetrate the tower and emerge out from the other side. The hollow aluminium wings of a plane could never have penetrated the 10 inch steel girders of the tower. The towers were also built to withstand collisions by planes, which was a known risk.
The US govt put out the names of the supposed Arab perpetrators who died in the supposed suicide attack. The Sunday Times did and expose that showed that some of those identified were still alive and furious at being misidentified. After that, the Sunday Times and press came into line and did not later contradict the govt’s obviously fake story – too risky, I expect!
However, the govt also had shills and paid shills who put out its fake story and worked to counteract the findings of investigative journalists. Those shills were believed by dutiful and credulous citizens – our Pagett here is one such person.
You are some sort of professional storyteller with no technical background. Lots of people said lots of things, and surely some were paid., but leave it to people who have done research in their lives to draw conclusions.
oh—come now drb
not just me who says 911 plots were just hogwash—lots of people better qualified than me—(most are anyway).
professional storyteller???—maybe….but it doesnt pay enough to go pro.
people are willing to pay to listen —even a doddery old git like me…..does wonders for the old ego though…..i need that at my age……Impresses the grandkids no end.
only the other day—-somebody suggested i should do it on cruise ships…..bit late for that now i guess.
too old to take advantage of fringe benefits unfortunately.
The military is certainly part of the answer. But flying machines, and even with inhabitants, have been spotted right across the centuries.
“Passport to Magonia” by Jacques Vallee is a classic that delves into the subject but does not forcibly try to tie up all the loose ends.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Passport-Magonia-Folklore-Flying-Saucers-ebook/dp/B00TU7V0XA?ref_=ast_author_mpb
Don’t believe your lying eyes says the venerable WSJ. LOL. Unconventional Flying Objects by former NASA rocket engineer Paul R Hill settles the science on how UFOs do what they do without violating any known laws of physics, and does so by process of elimination. It’s a wonderful thinking person’s book.
maybe we claim to have secret weapons because the ones we do have have all been demonstrated to be crap? all that’s left is a bluff.
Bluffing seems to be the way the system works today.
Pretty sure this is the case in the bio-weapons space, esp. all that GOF nonsense.
Yep, total nonsense from the Medical Nemesis.
Dion talked about the Great Reset 2035- and so forth.
When the Battle of Bulge operation began, Rundstedt, the German commander on the Western Front, thought given the resources it would be a miracle if the forces reached the Meuse (Maas) River. It was stopped about 1.3 miles away from there. (The Original aim was to reach Antwerp and destroy Allied shipping)
If BAU lasts till 2030, let alone 2035, it will be seen as a great achievement, not failure, and those who made that possible would be remembered as civilization’s heroes, not villains.
I see energy resource data that leads me to guess that BAU in IC will remain ongoing into the 2040s or 2050s.
though there will be continual gradual prolonged slow degrowth for these coming decades.
and there will probably be some chaotic down years (not 2025), but perhaps mostly average dull years of slight economic decline (like 2025).
and smaller weaker countries, especially islands, seem to be at high risk of severe degrowth even by 2030.
that would make the UK a possible canary in a coal mine.
BAU probably won’t go as far as 2040 or 2050.
You said yourself, this continual gradual prolonged slow degrowth is reason enough to break the economy. I wrote here before the rationale for that: our economy runs only on growth, and it doesn’t accept to stand still or to retract – the debt system and the interest system doesn’t allow that.
So, as soon as the economy show some signs, its over.
Why I’m focusing on the economy? Because the resources themselves, such as oil, gas, minerals, don’t necessarily need to peak, they just need to become uneconomical.
Coincidently, those two factors walk side by side (the economy and resource valuation), so projections don’t diverge too much.
But I have to emphasize the economy question far above the resource one, because there’s an argument, or a mindset, specially made by Art Bertman, that “we’ll have as much oil in 2040 as in the 1990s”. Yes, by sheer amount it makes a really soothing analysis, we can sleep soundly, right?
No, because the contraction is the key. The economy will stop growing, debt won’t be repaid, interest rates will skyrocket, supply chains will brake, logistic companies (rellying on motorized transportation) will bankrupt.
So that’s what’s gonna happen. Someone here posted an article from un-Denial, and it is spot on, just like Alice and her trucks, Gail also posted about the copper issue here.
There are hidden bottlenecks in our way of living that will make the music stop just by themselves.
Our only hope of keeping BAU is either:
– A new battery breaktrough. Cheap materials, stellar capacity, easy to manufacture. This will make “renewable energy” viable.
– New considerable, massive, previously unknown fossil fuel reserves discovered. Very unlikely, but we do have some final frontiers, be them either from the Drill Baby Drill projects, Vaca Muerta, the European shale basin, the Arctic, maybe even Antarctica. In the end, this would just postpone the problem (like shale did) and won’t fix the minerals’ problem. But every extra time is welcomed.
I am afraid you are correct:
“contraction is the key. The economy will stop growing, debt won’t be repaid, interest rates will skyrocket, supply chains will brake, logistic companies (relying on motorized transportation) will bankrupt.”
The issue with fuels is likely to be lack of jobs that pay well, rather than necessarily high prices. Also, very high tax rates and few government benefits. The issues will be affordability of goods and services, and “empty shelves.” There will be little to buy, and wages won’t cover much.
Great line.
There will be little to buy, and wages won’t cover much.
Sort of sad, isn’t it.
A government worker was stating that during the lockdowns.
As a man, I don’t see much to consume these days since consumption is very female-orientated.
Mortgages could be an issue as they require home insurance, some here may have noticed that cost is going crazy.
If mortgages are not available secondary to insurance costs, house prices will by necessity decline as prices are set at the margin.
Dennis L.
The value of property looks like it is being driven by incorporated property managers instead of rich foreigners.
I always wondered who had “cash” available for a deposit on a million dollar property. I long suspected that it was the rich foreigners because they spend a lot of money on the education of their family members .
“Because the resources themselves, such as oil, gas, minerals, don’t necessarily need to peak, they just need to become uneconomical.”
And in the complex critical energy/materials linkage, when one critical component becomes uneconomical, the chain breaks. The new definition of the weakest link.
Not spectacular, just stealthy and insidious.
Name: “BAU probably won’t go as far as 2040 or 2050.”
it might or might not, and probably won’t in smaller weaker economies like the UK.
what is more certain is that the real economy of good and services is the primary surplus energy economy, and that primary economy dictates the state of the secondary financial economy.
the flow of surplus energy is just about now inflecting to an irreversible decline which should continue for at least a couple of decades.
you can have the opinion that economics/finance/money is what will be the biggest influence on the near future of IC, but in my opinion you are wrong.
since the decline of surplus energy looks to be a gradual prolonged slow decline, then that will dictate a gradual prolonged slow decline of world prosperity.
surplus energy is primary, money is secondary.
If they can pull off their Great Reset, then yes. Programmable currencies with built-in negative interest, social-credit, and/or other rationing aspects will make a softer landing for some in the context of controlled economic demolition.
or just persistent moderate inflation.
govs/CBs create excess money to keep the debt system going.
fudge the numbers to make it look like growth is continuing.
handouts to banks to keep most of them operational.
there are ways to keep the debt/economic/financial/money systems running for a couple more decades.
though the average person MUST continually get poorer.
moderate inflation with not much wage increases and with job losses will be a big part of the degrowth process.
David is assuming they won’t lose control eventually the Fed will and all breaks loose
sure the Fed will lose control perhaps by the 2040s, maybe in the 2030s.
“since the decline of surplus energy looks to be a gradual prolonged slow decline, ”
“So the thesis of this book stands or falls with the correctness of the decline rate that Brown gives us. Therefore I have calculated with several different parameters as regards the decline rate, and all point in the same direction. The difference between them is a few years at most. Therefore I assume that my thesis is solid, which is that the end of global net oil exports in 2030-2032 (Brown’s scenario) is a best-case scenario.
Collapse can, I think, begin in earnest already in 2026, only because of too little diesel exports. Observe that oil exports vanish successively, more and more, not all at once.” ?
https://un-denial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/lars-larsen-the-end-of-global-net-oil-exports-13th-edition-2024.pdf
https://un-denial.com/2024/07/29/book-review-the-end-of-global-net-oil-exports-by-lars-larsen-2024/
too simplistic.
FF production including diesel are heading into irreversible decline.
no big deal.
the diesel decline won’t collapse IC, but will be severe first in smaller weaker countries who can’t produce it, or buy it.
as degrowth proceeds for the next few decades, some countries will be early losers, and eventually IC will end later this century.
it could be “collapse” or it could be a gradual prolonged slow degrowth.
the primary surplus energy economy dictates the state of the secondary financial economy, so I think the gradual prolonged slow decline of surplus energy will be dominant for the next few decades.
david, with your steady state degrowth, you are the one oversimplifying in service of your lifelong denial of complexity theory.
“david, with your steady state degrowth, you are the one oversimplifying in service of your lifelong denial of complexity theory.”
I disagree, I’ve often said the future of IC is very uncertain, it could collapse in 5 days or 5 decades.
also I’ve often said that the “gradual” part of the gradual prolonged slow degrowth might actual be many flat dull years of little change mixed with many chaotic years of steeper step downs, so the “gradual” would actually be “bumpy”, and indeed I mentioned this “chaotic” possibly up above.
but amid this uncertainty, in my opinion it is very certain that the primary surplus energy economy dictates the state of the secondary financial economy.
so, because I see data that suggests that surplus energy will be in a gradual slow decline for the next few decades, the secondary financial economy has a very good chance of adjusting to this decline and matching the gradual slow decline of surplus energy.
so I see the slightly more probable outcome is that economic degrowth proceeds in parallel with the decline in surplus energy, and the average person gets continually poorer for the next few decades.
but no big deal if I am wrong, this century is just a small blip of time in the grand scheme of things.
David , reante is correct . There is no such thing as ” steady degrowth ” . Our current IC is a complex . interconnected system based on ” permanent growth ” . The end of growth is the beginning of collapse . All complex systems are subordinate to Liebig’s Law of the minimum . I have already said that before we have lines at the pump we will have an economic collapse . Name has a good post on this issue . How long 5 weeks , 5 months , 5 years — there I am in agreement with you .
“David , reante is correct . There is no such thing as ” steady degrowth ” . Our current IC is a complex . interconnected system based on ” permanent growth ” . The end of growth is the beginning of collapse .”
I didn’t use “steady”, I used “gradual” but nuanced it with a more important word “bumpy”.
IC is based on the surplus energy flowing through it.
the end of growth is the beginning of degrowth.
yup, 5 weeks or 5 months or 5 years… or 10 years or 15 years or 20 years which are only small multiples of 5 years.
david let’s take it a step further, then.
“the end of growth is the beginning of degrowth.”
‘degrowth’ is a euphemism for a global technocratic attempt to maintain a controlled, catabolic collapse such that a chaotic collapse doesn’t take place. You do realize that don’t you?
“so, because I see data that suggests that surplus energy will be in a gradual slow decline for the next few decades, the secondary financial economy has a very good chance of adjusting to this decline and matching the gradual slow decline of surplus energy.”
The above appears to be contributing root conceptual mistake: less energy running through this civilization since late 2018 is not analogous to disinflation (“the gradual slow decline of surplus energy”). It is analogous to deflation, which is why Steve Ludlum at times alternatively referred to post- peak oil as energy deflation.
The gradual slow decline of surplus energy is absolutely not what is happening. What is happening is the decline of absolute energy. Two very different things.
I think that “degrowth” is a wishful thinking approach. It supposes that the system can slowly go down. The degrowth ideas passed around, such as building substitutes for sewage plants by forcing water to pass though a long passage of green plants (moved in from elsewhere, for this purpose), will not work. They presuppose the availability of lots of people’s time and of total resources, for mitigating collapse.
What I expect happens is that different parts of the world economy go down at somewhat different times. Cuba, Haiti, and some other island nations are likely to collapse early on, for example. Within the US, some groups who are already doing poorly will collapse before others.
We don’t know how economies will unravel. Governments will fall apart at different speeds. The EU may disappear fairly early, for example. This will mean a scramble for suitable currencies.
“What I expect happens is that different parts of the world economy go down at somewhat different times.
We don’t know how economies will unravel. Governments will fall apart at different speeds.”
I absolutely agree.
“The gradual slow decline of surplus energy is absolutely not what is happening. What is happening is the decline of absolute energy. Two very different things.”
it’s unclear, maybe you don’t know this: surplus energy is what remains when the energy used to extract energy resources is subtracted from the gross amount.
in other words, it’s the net energy. It matters in this era because while that energy cost of obtaining the gross energy was about 2% about 50 years ago, it is now about 10%.
“What is happening is the decline of absolute energy.”
perhaps by “absolute energy” you mean the net energy which is usable to the rest of the economy, since the 10% of energy used to extract energy resources is not available to the rest of the economy.
whatever terms you use, it looks certain to me that the energy flowing through IC has declined only very slightly since 2018.
the world economy is still holding up quite well, no surprise to me since it depends mostly on the daily flow of surplus energy through IC.
david, obviously the energy mining industries are returning energy surpluses on their combined operations but the total extractable energy is declining and that is because of — and I know that you agree with this — affordability, yet you say that economics is secondary to energy. It is not secondary. Economics is symbiotic with energy – in complexity. That’s why the first thing we explain to people when introducing peak oil theory is that it’s an affordability metric. Money may be a mere proxy for energy surpluses but money has its own separate internal health dynamics there is no energy without money if the money system can’t function well enough to pay for the expensive energy that caused the dysfunction in the first place.
At some point, pulling forward from the future too-expensive demand, with debt, morphs into pushing on a string, and that’s separate from the geological depletion.
There is also the issue of rising population. We need an ever-larger energy supply to provide food and other necessities to the rising world population. Otherwise, we need to change our methods dramatically. One such way is to cut way back on sending goods across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Totally Gail. Maintenance costs. The bigger chitty chitty bang bang gets the more there is to maintain. Back to Steve’s First Law of economics again: the surpluses themselves don’t come for free!
“the costs of managing any surplus increase along with the surplus until they exceed it.”
LOL at some point anybody with any civilizational ambition in life learns this law firsthand, myself included.
“david, obviously the energy mining industries are returning energy surpluses on their combined operations but the total extractable energy is declining and that is because of — and I know that you agree with this — affordability, yet you say that economics is secondary to energy. It is not secondary. Economics is symbiotic with energy – in complexity.”
we agree energy is declining.
affordability (of everything not just energy) is declining BECAUSE OF the decline in surplus energy flowing through the system.
the primary surplus energy economy dictates the state of the secondary financial economy.
so yes they are highly connected but the direction is clear.
money had low value when there was low surplus energy, now with surplus energy still close to its all-time high, money still has high value.
affordability rises and falls as surplus energy rises and falls.
“affordability (of everything not just energy) is declining BECAUSE OF the decline in surplus energy flowing through the system.”
there, I said it again, it is the key that you seem to be missing.
we disagree, no big deal.
have a nice day.
Thanks david. Sure, disagreeing is no big deal but establishing what is and what isn’t, is a somewhat bigger deal.
Previously you said this:
“whatever terms you use, it looks certain to me that the energy flowing through IC has declined only very slightly since 2018”
Yet most recently you said this, and said it twice for emphasis:
“affordability (of everything not just energy) is declining BECAUSE OF the decline in surplus energy flowing through the system.”
I know that you agree that unaffordability of everything has increased more than “very slightly” and is outpacing the “very slight” decline in energy flowing through IC, which supports my argument and runs contrary to yours. And I’m sure that you also agree that the unaffordability has hampered energy flows. Proof is in the pudding.
Thanks for the conversation.
“I know that you agree that unaffordability of everything has increased more than “very slightly” and is outpacing the “very slight” decline in energy flowing through IC, which supports my argument and runs contrary to yours. And I’m sure that you also agree that the unaffordability has hampered energy flows. Proof is in the pudding.”
no, I think it’s obvious that worldwide affordability is only down slightly in the past 7 years.
helped especially by oil, mid $60s is a historically somewhat low price, viewed correctly by inflation adjusted.
also thanks for the conversation.
I know that nobody likes to be cornered but global oil consumption as a percentage of global GDP is about 2-3pc. Also, you conveniently ignored the “everything” part of it. You say that affordability is barely down globally — and maybe that’s the case for you with whatever financialization you may have taken advantage of — but even official CPI stats say that dollar inflation is at 27+% since 2018. And the dollar has been stronger than almost every other currency.
though I am here in the northeast USA, I am looking at what should be looked at which is the global economy.
surely Russia and China and the rest of Asia have more affordability than 7 years ago, the USA and Europe less.
with such a huge chunk of the world having more affordability (hard to trust stats though), I think the global decline can’t be more than a slight decline.
david as I recall Russia has had 20pc annual inflation since the war started.
China’s yuan is floated in a band that is tied to a basket of currencies dominated by the dollar, the euro, and the yen. The dollar has inflated 27+% as previously stated, the euro 25+%, and the yen has depreciated by 50% against the dollar.
Again, it’s a testament to the Hand that we are in a global depression and things have held up well enough that almost nobody realizes that we are in one.
Copper looks like a bottleneck coming up:
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/power-ceo-us-risks-losing-ai-race-without-transmission-grid-overhaul
Power CEO: US Risks Losing AI Race Without Transmission Grid Overhaul
Of course, copper is also needed for the EVs, and for the charging stations for the EVs. Copper supply is increasingly constrained. Something, somewhere will not work in a mostly electric transition.
my understanding is that aluminum is now the preferred method of long distance high voltage transmission for new builds. lighter and cheaper and we aren’t running out of aluminum.
I have the same understanding about aluminum being used for most electricity transmission lines. But there are many other parts of the system where copper is needed. The fellow being quoted should know if copper really is needed.
He is Michael Polsky, CEO of energy developer Invenergy. This company is developing an 800-mile high-voltage transmission line designed to deliver 5 gigawatts of power — the equivalent of five nuclear reactors — from Kansas to the eastern U.S., connecting multiple regional grids to power data centers and onshore manufacturing trends. Polsky is the one talking about the copper issue.
EVs also need copper, and the charging stations for EVs need copper. I know I have read about the copper from these EV charging stations being stolen, if they are left without a working attendant.
If you read closely, the excerpt of Polsky does not say massive amounts of copper will be needed; he says investment will be needed. It is ZeroHedge inferring from this this will require vast amounts of copper.
Isn’t that the same issue as with oil? A price sufficiently high to produce difficult to access Cu is too high for commercial projects. A price which is sufficiently low to make commercial projects viable is too low to allow production of terrestrial Cu.
Solution: robotic mining of asteroids(pollution is not a problem, transportation is not a problem, energy is not a problem and workers are not a problem assuming Optimus-3). The problem may well be the last two hundred or so miles; this appears to be one of the problems Starship is having. Atmospheric braking is not trivial and ablative or similar solutions are not possible without replacement, they are not reusable.
Only solution to the braking problem may be returning only items with very high value. As an example, Apollo. Leave off returning astronauts and return only some moon rocks and much cheaper solutions are available; there may however be a shortage of astronaut volunteers.
Dennis L.
yup…..
single tickets to the moon will be much cheaper than returns
LOL!
“robotic mining of asteroids”
This off-world mining idea has always intrigued me. I don’t think it will ever come to fruition, but for the purposes of a thought experiment, let’s assume it is do-able.
If we found large amounts of Copper ore on the moon, it would be very tempting to create a shuttle of container style craft, to bring it back to Earth.
The gravity ratio of Moon & Earth is 6:1, so mining 10 million tons (of Moon stuff), would be 60 million tons (of Earth stuff), when it arrived here on terra.
So far so good.
Mass is what creates gravity, and the Moon and Earth have been in a stable ‘gravity dance’, for eons.
The risk here, is that mining (Moon stuff) reduces the gravity pull of the Moon, and increases the gravity pull (of Earth) on a 6:1 ratio. Does it matter? Maybe it depends on how much (Moon stuff) we bring back (to Earth).
The reality remains that (even if micro-slightly), the Earth will have (more gravity pull), and the Moon (less gravity pull).
If that gravity switch, were to pull the Moon closer by just a couple of inches over 5 years, and exponentially by 6 foot over 15 years, we would create unimaginable tide shifts on Earth, and the potential of mind blowing catastrophes over a Century.
There are always consequences, to even good ideas?
“there may however be a shortage of astronaut volunteers”
No kidding!
You are prattling on about a non-existent problem.
This problem was solved during the first moon landing.
Why don’t rocket scientists just do what was done before?
My understanding is that china has said to the US we are not buying anything from you and we are not selling anything to you. We have created an international funds transfer system without US, EU, Rothschild banks. Presumably, the international settlement system works for all of BRICS and for the three systems that have joined to make a new group whose name I do not have.
Isolating the US turns out to be the way the world lives.
Good fences (Atlantic and Pacific) make good neighbors.
Moats
Yes! Moats. Each filled with three party submarines. Each with enough MIRV nuclear war head to destroy most of the major cities of the enemy.
Just like the movie War Games. The only winning move is not to play.
Indeed. The only winning move for the Hand is to stick to cosplay. That’s what you get when you’re in the closet.
US and Europe are both left out of the new system. Europe has little to sell. It will likely have trouble buying adequate goods and services for its people.
Europe is the anti China. China would never insult, belittle or cause another to loose face. Europe on the other hand trash talks the whole world.
Now that African nations have friends like China this leave EU with no friends, no place to buy needed materials. Ten years of increasing poverty ought to teach them some humility.
Hmmm, EU and humility. WWI, and WWII, humility is not a good bet one might think.
Dennis L.
If being a ” light unto nations” is part of you core belief system, you will never learn humility.
You will just see the situation as a form of persecution or mass ignorance.
Ed, China has sunk capital in investments, the US up until now had a sufficient savings to mortgage; that seems about to end. It has been some time since the US could pay as it went. Is there anyone in the world who can pick up the slack?
Swapping Brics currencies may make the grift of the US look petty. I don’t know but a lot of hands in the pot. A small fractional percentage of a trillion here and there.
Dennis L.
Not enough oil; just add more debt.
https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-ratchet-effect-easy-to-spend-more.html
CHS says: The Ratchet Effect: Easy to Spend More, Spending Less Triggers Collapse
We see this problem at a household level. It is also a problem at the governmental level.
Yes, people will get poor by having money inflated away. The system can survive becoming worse by each day like that.
But if you close the tap and retract, things fall down immediately, so we know very well which path global leaders will take, specially because inflating away the value of money also concentrates wealth at the top.
The higher the interest rate, the more the already wealthy receive.
“3:39 unfortunately these interest payments
3:41are not distributed equally among these
3:45 households we estimate that of the
3:48 $472
3:49 billion of interest payments that
3:52 impacted households in
3:55 2023
3:57 71% or 335 5 billion went to the top
4:02 10% so when interest rates are high it
4:06 has the effect of accelerating the
4:08 increase in
4:10 inequality that’s compounded by the fact
4:13 that the less well off have
4:15 proportionately higher private debt and
4:19 with higher interest rates will be
4:21 adversely impacted more there as
4:24 well that’s a long-winded way of saying
4:27 that high rates benefit the wealthy
4:30 and hurt the middle and lower income
4:33 groups . . . “?
The thing that I have discovered is that to move from the losing from interest problems to gaining from interest accumulation is live below the lifestyle your income would seem to afford. Of course, you need to have a least a modest income to do this.
In the past, at least, if a person chooses inexpensive housing (live with parents or roommates, for example), often it is possible to save up money. Then it may be possible to buy an electric bicycle without debt. As long as a person doesn’t overspend, (at least, in the past, without the current problems) the leftover money would help finance purchases without going into debt. Your money goes a lot farther, if you are not paying interest to a bank or some other lender. If you make an upgrade to your home, let it be a small upgrade to your home that you can really afford without going into debt. You will not “keep up with the Joneses” this way, but it saves a lot of headaches.
Of course, if you save up money, and the bank goes bankrupt, then you have new problems. So this approach, which worked in the past, perhaps will not work as well in the future.
You have it exactly wrong, Nme. Inflation dilutes all financial wealth (savings) and therefore does not, in and of itself, concentrate wealth at the top. All else equal, nflation hurts savers and benefits debtors. Wealth in an inflationary environment only increases if income outpaces inflation and expenditures.
Deflation is what concentrates wealth at the top because rich savers benefit from deflation and poor debtors suffer from deflation, so we know very well which path the petrodollar will take.
I suggest you tone down your writing style. You sound like you are trying to pick a fight.
The situation gets to be more complex, because asset price inflation helps the already rich. Their homes and shares of stock are worth more. Any debt they owe does not go up with inflation. The rich find their net worth going ever-higher with inflation.
Unfortunately, higher inflation also leads to higher interest rates for people wanting to buy homes and cars. (Mostly, the poor find themselves priced out of the market.) But the ones who are able to buy discover that they have to pay these higher interest rates. The interest paid by the poor people tends to go to the already rich, because they are the one who can afford to put money away in shares of stock, or in buying bonds that pay interest.
I would expect that debt defaults and job losses would go with deflation. Many banks will collapse with deflation because with deflation it becomes very difficult to repay debt with interest.
Then, the question is whether governments will print more money to bail the banks out. If governments are unable to bail the banks out, the rich will suffer as banks collapse. But if the governments bail the banks out, the rich can (at least temporarily) become even richer.
Chaos precedes collapse . Are we there ?
What evidence do we have that chaos precedes collapse?
Isn’t it that collapse happens first to the most vulnerable in society. This problem gets brushed off to the side. Also, young people get stuck with loans that cannot be repaid. Homes become impossibly expensive to buy. Cheating becomes practically the only way to get ahead.
💪
Not sure about houses; I have argued before housing prices may be declining in nominal value. Financing, insurance and taxes. No financing without insurance, no financing no buying/selling homes at the margin, and taxes are a question mark. Taxes could be a significant part of what causes cities to decline and die; those who remain can’t pay taxes, have no money impossible to threaten.
My thought is currently children are the ultimate asset. If we go Optimus-3, that is not biology and economics ceases.
Dennis L.
“Isn’t it that collapse happens first to the most vulnerable in society.”
Humans are sentient, most biology is not. To a degree we share others’ pain and perhaps have narratives to work around that problem to the extent there are excess resources of disposable income. When the excess declines, our cities decline and vulnerability becomes relative along with sharing of pain.
Societies are complicated undertakings, and a working society is priceless.
Dennis L.
The drug problem is under-reported. Virtually no one with an education thinks drug addiction is a serious social problem. It’s almost like they approve of the situation.
William Buckley likened it to rat poison. He said it should be as cheap as rat poison.
“Chaos precedes collapse. Are we there?”
but chaos could also precede more chaos.
in my opinion, degrowth will be a gradual prolonged slow process, though maybe very bumpy, with a mix of mild years and chaotic years for the next few decades.
I’ll believe WW3 and Great Depression 2.0 when I see it.
BAU tonight, baby!
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last February (82.431 mb/d) — this is 0.5% below their current figure for peak post-covid world crude oil production (82.881 mb/d, in December, 2023), & 2.6% below their current figure for peak world oil production (84.592 mb/d, in November, 2018).
With flagging oil prices, will oil production keep up? ( http://oil-price.net/ ) ( https://davecoop.net/ )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1738368000000
The second link, above, should have been https://davecoop.net/seneca
How fast it will drop depends on the price. it could be all over by 2030, instead of 2040.
or 2050 or 2070.
it could “be all over” by the end of this month, or the end of this century.
nobody knows.
From may years of experience attending the opera, I can assure you that it won’t be over until the fat lady sings.
All we have to do is find the fat lady.
Yogi Berra also said it ain’t over until it’s over.
“fast doomers” should learn that.
February crude oil production doesn’t look particularly low. It isn’t near the peak, but it is above recent production amounts. No one is going to get upset about falling oil production, based on it.
>> With flagging oil prices, will oil production keep up?
Obviously not when at least 12% of world supply depends on fracking which is governed by short-term investment. Just USA’s fracking’s C+C production of 10mbpd / 82mbpd = 12%.
Also, this is a good table to come back to periodicially:
“Shale oil and shale gas resources are globally abundant”
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=11611
If you start with the premise that Distance = Resources = Oil, (DRO), it very likely explains some of the weird political things happening right now.
Most believe that the 20 year US occupation of Afghanistan was about 18 years too long. But the final decision to exit Afghanistan over a long ‘chaotic’ weekend, and leave 40 billion of armaments behind for the Taliban to plunder, was (I believe), not about politics, but on account of (D)istance from the US, and the (R)esources and (O)il needed, to keep it supplied and protected.
In the UK, our government illogically ‘gave away’ our ownership of the Chagos Islands, which holds a strategic US air and sea base, (Diego Garcia), to Mauritius,…and… as part of the deal the UK will give £100 million per year to Mauritius for *100 years* to Mauritius, to effectively rent back that US base from Mauritius for our military use.
British citizens are asking the question,…’FFS…Make it make sense’ !!!
Using the DRO principle, supplying and protecting Diego Garcia for the strategic use of US military was becoming increasingly impossible especially if China or Russia engaged in some military ‘prodding and provocation’, in the Chagos ‘theatre’. So, I have no doubt that within the £100 million/year sale-and-rent-back Contract, to Mauritius, there is a clause of ‘Leave Diego Garcia alone for 100 years !!!’, because the UK cannot afford the Oil and Resources to protect it at such a Distance.
We on these threads can openly speak of diminishing resources, and my DRO principle,.. but our governments can’t be open about the realities of DRO.
Global outposts that were created in an age of fast flowing cheap oil, cannot be fed the ‘blood supply’ needed to keep them healthy.
When Argentinian politics work out the DRO issue, I think The Falklands Islands, will become (for the UK), an outpost too far to keep.
David Butler 6/6/2025
As General Omar Bradley once said “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” . and then
The statement “the further you are from the centre less the control” can be interpreted in various ways, depending on the context. In general, it implies that as you move away from a central point or authority, the ability to exert influence or direction decreases. This concept is applicable to various fields, including political, social, and organizational structures.”
These were known to mankind since very long . Are human beings intelligent than yeast ?
ravi,
For sure we are more intelligent than yeast but despite that, we are still are locked into the Laws of Thermodynamics, and Entropy.
When the human body feels threatened, it consolidates its resources to vital organs, leaving the tips of fingers, toes and nose to go black.
Our Western government(s), are trying their best to distract us from the observational fact, that our colonial and military outposts are ‘turning black’, and what this might mean for the civilian ‘body’ of the West developed over 250 years of cheap, abundant fossil energy.
Hint : Nothing good.
They are trying to work out how to keep their Lear Jets, and Champagne, whilst pushing the rest of us into a 21st Century of No driving, No flying, Feudalism and of of staying within our 15 minute cities and learning to be content as good little uneducated Elois.
Their half-baked modern Feudalism plan, is going to fail spectacularly. And in the interim, the rest of us are going to need to learn new survival skills,. Very rapidly.
We’re not smarter than them David. Let’s not flatter ourselves like that. If we know that such a plan is going to fail spectacularly, then so do they such that it was never the plan in the first place, rendering them smarter than those of us who persist in thinking them dumb, and rendering such persistence as little more than a psychological defense mechanism against having to continually submit to their authority.
Put yourself in their shoes and you will come up with a much better approximation of their plans.
If they were as smart as you give them credit for, they wouldn’t have waged a proxy war on Russia that has cleared their weapons stocks and demonstrated their war-fighting and weapons inferiority.
There are many other examples one could give. In other words, they are exactly as dumb as they seem, inheritors of money, all impulse and emotion without thought.
Clearly you haven’t been waiting with bated breath for every reante comment, Ivan, because you don’t even know who they is according to reante.
They is the Hand which puppetmasters all countries except probably Iran and NK and some other inconsequential lands.
I have amply explained the numerous primary reasons why the Ukraine war is an intelligent part of the non-public Degrowth Agenda.
The first and last art of psychological warfare is misdirection/deception, layered. If Ivan thinks the Elites are dumb lizard brain people that managed to control the world with their idiocy, then the Elites are actually smart: deception.
Even if you disagree I’d still appreciate it if you paid attention because I pay attention to what you say, because it’s common decency to do that.
Sometimes it is hard to keep up with who said what, I am afraid. Not everyone has spare time to spend hours reading through the comments in detail.
Reante, why don’t you clearly state who the “they” is, then, beyond “a single entity behind all world governments”. I don’t believe in that because world events are explainable with my more straightforward and standard model of the world.
I am afraid you are right. Good observations!
The intelligence only redounds to doing yeast-y things.
You make good points.
This is related to not being able to import all kinds of manufactured goods from China and other countries in the Far East. It simply takes too much oil. We need to figure out another way.
Trying to manufacture everything ourselves seems to be behind Trump’s plan, but we are a long way from being set up to do it ourselves. In theory, we have extra natural gas we could put toward this effort, if we cut off exporting it to other countries. But building the system out would take years. It really would need oil, as well.
Gail, while energy is the master resource, especially oil, to make a civilization requires a lot more.
It requires cheap abundant resources of all types, it requires a large and growing population to feed the growth in technology/complexity and markets of the entire system.
Look at Saudi Arabia, they have huge quantities (or did have) of oil energy, yet without selling it to others for lots of products, it’s useless by itself. Once the oil is gone they return to desert dwelling people riding camels between waterholes, except now they have 100 times too many people..
We have an entire system of civilization that can’t go backwards as the global supply chain with greater inequality is the most efficient use of energy and materials in the overall picture.
One nation can no longer go it alone in the modern world as we require the entirety of our technologies to gain access to the lower grades of oil, gas, coal, copper, tin, zinc, lithium, REEs, uranium, etc, etc. We also need the full range of complexity/technology to gain the water and food in the quantities required from a deteriorating natural world.
No single country or even block of countries has all the resources required, nor the market size to allow all the complexity of machines, parts, fertilizers, etc, etc required to make it all happen.
To try and go it alone is more inefficient, requiring more energy and materials to build all the factories, processing plants, smelters and mines, instead of relying on those that exist elsewhere.
Once we don’t have the oil energy to allow cross ocean shipping, we certainly will not have the oil energy to allow for low grade mining in lots of separate places that can’t get metals and minerals from across the oceans to make the complex machinery. This restriction will limit/destroy the ability to make highly complex machines, which are required to do the mining/refining of low grade ores, which makes less of these materials available.
A simplification of the system can’t work because we’ve used all the cheap easy to get resources, so totally require all of modernity/complexity to continue with modernity, which clearly can’t continue when the energy supply starts to reduce.
Civilization is a process that eventually ends when it runs into hard limits, with the easily largest civilization ever, ending much faster because of it’s size, complexity and therefore fragility.
Because of such reliance of everything on this vast complexity, and a population in such massive overshoot for living in a ‘natural’ manner, the future of fast collapse is very easy to foresee for anyone looking…
you are quite correct hideaway
unfortunately the world is full of maganuts who see themselves as emperors, refusing to recognise the reality of the situayion we are in
“Over 60% of European soils are unhealthy and scientific evidence shows that this is getting even worse.”
But the directive on soil monitoring quality still not in force.
https://environment.ec.europa.eu/publications/proposal-directive-soil-monitoring-and-resilience_en
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1034
When I was a small boy, we had a dog. And I gave him the name “Uhlík” (in English “Carbon”).
Transformation of agriculture to carbon farming is inevitable. But that means less pressure on soil from the population.
I see this as a plea for more complexity.
Collect the data (an expense for current farmers), then computerize it. Then work on solutions, which almost certainly cost money for the farmers.
No wonder this will go nowhere, unless there is a huge amount of debt added to pay the farmers for collecting this data, and also to pay the workers analyzing the data and suggesting solutions. Any solutions will need to be paid for using government debt.
Yes, this is a complete inversion of reality. Data itself does not “support innovation”, etc. Real-world resources do.
[And then one has to consider the vast market in corrupt data that has come to the fore in recent non-scandal scandals.]
I keep wondering who is going to be writing farmers checks for the “ecosystem services” they are all talking about. I pee in a bucket and return it to the soil, but nobody has written me a check for anything. Why not?
“Data itself does not “support innovation”, etc. Real-world resources do”
Not in the West. The resource cupboard is a bit bare, so we do data, data, data. Financial fraud supported us for decades and wow did they innovate. We are just rejigging that game.
We now have artificial intelligence(ignore that it’s not and never can be) and there’s a new meta data study that proves, yes proves the wonder it is.
It’s been peer reviewed(in lightning time, which is always reassuring), viewed hundreds of thousands of times and cited on an unprecedented scale, given its short life span.
“This study suggests that: (1) appropriate learning scaffolds or educational frameworks (e.g., Bloom’s taxonomy) should be provided when using ChatGPT to develop students’ higher-order thinking; (2) the broad use of ChatGPT at various grade levels and in different types of courses should be encouraged to support diverse learning needs; (3) ChatGPT should be actively integrated into different learning modes to enhance student learning, especially in problem-based learning; (4) continuous use of ChatGPT should be ensured to support student learning, with a recommended duration of 4–8 weeks for more stable effects; (5) ChatGPT should be flexibly integrated into teaching as an intelligent tutor, learning partner, and educational tool.”
That’s just the abstract and with praise so high, who needs to bother with thinking for themselves . The kids are going to be so smart(without thinking).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-04787-y#Sec6
“And then one has to consider the vast market in corrupt data that has come to the fore in recent non-scandal scandals”
Thank God we don’t bother with scandals any more. 2020 was so awkward.
The below is the most scathing I think I’ve seen Johan since influenza went on holiday for a year, only to be replaced by its doppelgänger(and then amalgamated).
“And to put it mildly, this study is really a hot pile of smoking garbage, and should not only be retracted, it shouldn’t even have been attempted in the first place”
https://shadowrunners.substack.com/p/a-criticism-of-the-recent-chatgpt
If you have some spare time, do look over the paper. It’s a challenger for any of the worse of 2020.
P.S cheque is in the post. Happy farming.
The ShadowRunners Substack article is worth looking at. It is about how awful a meta-study about the usefulness of ChatGBT can be, and still get published and cited many times.
A criticism of the recent chatGPT meta-study in Nature currently making the rounds
On “The effect of ChatGPT on students’ learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking: insights from a meta-analysis” and its discontents
Anyone know who is selling a beast of burden at the moment? I’m looking for reliable transportation . A horse would be ideal but a donkey would be acceptable.
And please: No sick animals.
never look a gift horse in the mouth
Guest , in India we have what is called ” Khaccher ” . It is a crossbreed between a horse and a donkey . It was the only animal that could transport supplies to the Indian armed forces on the Siachen glacier . It’s only additional dietary requirement was a lot of Rum to make the trip . Can you import ? Recommended . 🤣
that is a mule.
Yes drb . In India it is called ” kachher” . Tks .
Mules are infertile. I said healthy!
get an amish wife
Does anyone have any good maggot recipes? We’ll have to make do with whatever’s available ten years from now whether they are maggots, cockroaches, or human carrion.
We should be looking more to plant materials to eat. We perhaps need to figure out what plants near where we live are edible.
Generally, we should expect to need to cook food, especially plants. But animals/insects perhaps may benefit from cooking as well.
Foraging enough to supplement your diet is a good reason to consider a long term plan for rural living in times of a worsening collapse. Sure you will find a dwindling supply of rations and wild edibles in your small yard in the City. When I lived with my friend we ate sorrel greens and purslane in salads. My grandmother said they regularly ate dandelion greens and wild onions and poor people would collect ice scraps from the local delivery truck.
Maple syrup operations are abundant in the Northwoods. Our hunting land has Shagbark Hickory and Black Walnut trees so I bought a table top lever action nutcracker. The farm across the road (formerly my Great Uncle’s) has a 5 acre “grove” of 100-150 year old maples and hickories where they used to do sugaring.
I think if you are coming from the “flatlands” to explore a possible Plan B you will want to look for a seasonal campground and volunteer work. Offering to help a local widow chop firewood in exchange for access to 80+ acres of mixed agricultural land for the purposes of doe hunting was a successful trade that went along way towards gaining the trust of of other local farmers.
The Scenario: The Great Reckoning (Years 2035-2045)
Phase 1: The Descent (2035-2038) – Recession & Cracks in the Foundation
The Trigger: A confluence of factors – escalating geopolitical tensions, unsustainable debt levels across major economies (US, EU, China), and a series of devastating climate events (extreme weather, crop failures) – triggers a global recession. It’s not a sudden crash, but a slow bleed, eroding confidence in existing systems.
Early Signs: Stock markets plummet, businesses fail, unemployment rises sharply. Governments attempt stimulus packages, but they prove ineffective and only exacerbate inflation. Supply chains crumble under the strain of disrupted trade and resource scarcity.
Dollar’s Vulnerability: The US dollar, long the bedrock of global finance, begins to show cracks. Foreign nations start diversifying their reserves away from USD, driven by concerns about US debt and a perceived lack of political stability.
Phase 2: The Fracture (2038-2041) – Dollar’s Demise & Realization
The Breaking Point: A coordinated effort by several major economies (China, Russia, Brazil, India) to bypass the US dollar in trade agreements accelerates its decline. A sudden and significant devaluation of the USD sends shockwaves through global markets.
The “Finite Earth” Awakening: The economic turmoil forces a brutal reckoning with reality. Scientists and economists, previously marginalized by political pressures, gain prominence as they present irrefutable data: resource depletion is accelerating beyond any sustainable rate. Population growth, combined with consumption patterns, is demonstrably incompatible with planetary limits. This isn’t just an environmental issue; it’s a survival imperative.
The Shift in Mindset: A global cultural shift begins – away from relentless economic growth and towards a philosophy of conservation, frugality, and localized resilience. “Planned obsolescence” becomes a dirty word. Repairing and reusing are celebrated.
Phase 3: The Bitcoin Transition (2041-2045) – A New Global Standard
The Search for Stability: With the US dollar in freefall, nations scramble to find an alternative global trade standard. Fiat currencies prove unreliable due to inherent inflationary risks and political manipulation.
Bitcoin’s Rise: Bitcoin, initially dismissed as a fringe technology, emerges as a surprisingly viable solution. Its decentralized nature, limited supply (21 million coins), and resistance to censorship appeal to countries seeking financial independence and stability.
Adoption by Leading Nations: China, Russia, Brazil, India, and several smaller nations begin adopting Bitcoin as a primary currency for international trade. The US, initially resistant, eventually follows suit under pressure from its trading partners and the need to stabilize its own economy. The transition is messy – volatility spikes, black markets flourish, but the underlying trend is undeniable.
New Economic Models: Traditional economic indicators (GDP growth) become less relevant. Focus shifts to metrics like resource efficiency, environmental impact, and social well-being. Circular economies and localized production models gain traction.
Key Characteristics of This New World:
Reduced Consumption: A global culture of austerity prevails. Luxury goods are rare and expensive. Sharing and bartering become commonplace.
Localized Economies: Global supply chains shrink as nations prioritize domestic production and regional trade networks.
Technological Innovation (Focused on Sustainability): Investment shifts dramatically towards renewable energy, resource recycling, vertical farming, and other technologies that promote sustainability.
Geopolitical Realignment: The US loses its position as the undisputed global superpower. A multipolar world emerges, with power distributed among several major economies.
Increased Social Inequality (Initially): While Bitcoin offers some financial stability, the transition period is marked by significant economic hardship and social unrest. Those who hold Bitcoin early benefit disproportionately, exacerbating existing inequalities.
You (or whoever wrote this) put the problem off into the future. Bitcoin somehow sort of saves the system. What is expected to be happening with fossil fuel supplies and population? When does electricity become too erratic to depend on for industry? How does a person use bitcoin, if electricity is unavailable?
Bitcoin marketing piece, flavoured with a few trendy terms.
Do you think bitcoin has as a feature not being inflatable? If we are in a non growth economy, this would be consistent.
We need a means of transactions which cannot be inflated in the time period between initiation of a contract and settlement of same.
Dennis L.
I expect that we actually need a shrinking supply of currency, to match the shrinking supply of finished products.
This situation creates a problem for repaying debt with interest, unless we are dealing with negative interest rates. People need to spend their money now, or see a haircut on what it is worth in the future. Investment in new factories rarely makes sense, because the number of consumers, and the quantity of goods they buy, keeps going down.
” the number of consumers, and the quantity of goods they buy, keeps going down.” This has been happening in different …uh…industries… I want to say product categories for a long time. The
marketing and public relations have consistently framed it as “change”, not decline. The amount of Products and services being paid for and consumed isn’t going down…they are are becoming more niche. Political coalitions aren’t fragmenting….more people are participating and are cooperating less. But it’s NOT fragmentation.
1. Fossil Fuel Supplies:
Initial Decline (2035-2040): The recession initially accelerates fossil fuel decline. Reduced industrial activity lowers demand, but disrupted supply chains and political instability make extraction and transport increasingly difficult. Investment in new exploration dries up as the writing is on the wall about long-term viability.
Strategic Reserves (2040-2043): Nations release strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate immediate crises, but these are finite and quickly depleted. The price of fossil fuels skyrockets, making them unaffordable for many.
Limited Extraction & Localized Production (2043-2045 onwards): Large-scale extraction becomes largely unsustainable due to cost, environmental concerns, and dwindling accessible reserves. What remains is primarily used for essential industries – food production, critical infrastructure – under strict government rationing. Smaller, localized operations using unconventional sources (shale oil, tar sands) emerge but are inefficient and environmentally damaging.
The Shift to Renewables: The crisis forces a rapid transition to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, geothermal). However, the initial rollout is hampered by supply chain issues and lack of skilled labor.
2. Population Dynamics:
Fertility Rates Plummet (2035-2045): Economic uncertainty, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation lead to a sharp decline in global fertility rates. People postpone or forgo having children due to the bleak outlook for the future.
Increased Mortality (2038-2042): Climate events (heatwaves, droughts, floods), food shortages, and disease outbreaks increase mortality rates, particularly among vulnerable populations. This isn’t a catastrophic die-off but a gradual reduction in population size.
Migration & Displacement: Mass migrations occur as people flee areas devastated by climate change or resource scarcity. This puts immense strain on receiving regions, leading to social tensions and conflict.
Stabilization (2045 onwards): Population stabilizes at a lower level than previously projected, but the demographic shift creates new challenges – an aging population with fewer working-age individuals to support it.
3. Electricity Reliability:
Initial Volatility (2038-2041): The transition to renewables is bumpy. Intermittent power generation from solar and wind leads to frequent blackouts and grid instability. Aging infrastructure, neglected during the years of economic boom, fails increasingly often.
Localized Microgrids (2041-2045): Large national grids become unreliable. Communities begin developing localized microgrids powered by a mix of renewables (solar panels on homes, small wind turbines) and backup generators (often running on biofuels). These are vulnerable to attack or natural disasters.
Industry Impact: Electricity-dependent industries (manufacturing, data centers) suffer significant disruptions. Production shifts to areas with more reliable power sources or adopts energy-efficient technologies. Some industries simply cease to exist. The concept of “just-in-time” manufacturing becomes a distant memory; stockpiling is essential.
Critical Infrastructure Prioritization: Governments prioritize electricity for essential services – hospitals, food production, water treatment – leaving many areas without power.
4. Using Bitcoin Without Electricity:
The Rise of “Air-Gapped” Wallets & Mesh Networks: People adopt air-gapped wallets (hardware devices completely disconnected from the internet) to store their Bitcoin securely. Transactions are signed offline and then physically transported via trusted individuals or small, localized mesh networks.
Mesh Networking: Communities establish low-bandwidth mesh networks using short-range radio technology (like LoRaWAN or similar). These networks allow for limited communication and transaction broadcasting even without internet access. Think of it as a digital grapevine.
Physical Bitcoin Exchanges: Small, localized “Bitcoin exchanges” emerge where people can physically trade Bitcoin for goods and services. Transactions are recorded on paper ledgers and later synchronized with the blockchain when power is available.
Community-Based Validators (Miners): Small groups of individuals pool resources to run low-power mining rigs powered by renewable energy sources. They operate as community validators, contributing to the security of the Bitcoin network and earning rewards in Bitcoin. These are often shared within the community.
QR Code Literacy: The ability to scan and interpret QR codes becomes a vital skill for everyday transactions.
How This Impacts the Narrative:
The Struggle for Power: Control over localized microgrids and mesh networks becomes a source of power and conflict.
The Value of Trust: Physical Bitcoin exchanges rely heavily on trust and reputation within communities.
Technological Adaptation: Characters must learn to adapt to low-tech solutions and embrace resourcefulness.
Social Division: Those with access to reliable electricity and secure Bitcoin storage have a significant advantage over those who don’t, creating new forms of social inequality.
This combination of factors creates a world that is both challenging and resilient – a place where technology and human ingenuity are essential for survival, but where community and trust are the most valuable assets.
cut n paste BS
Micro grid or major grid—require copper wire and switchgear—which requiure factory production……
Low power mining….a hole in the ground is a hole in the ground—it has to be physically dug by someone—solar cant do that…..
Without power—bit coin evaporates to nothing…..
I was laughing too much to comment further……
With use, how long before paper dollars “wear” out to nothing? Ans. 6.6 years.
Bit coin first used for a pizza transaction in 2010.
How many dollar bills are “lost” each year to a given person? How many quarters are lost each year to a given person?
Since 2010 US dollar has lost 46.66% of purchasing power. Bitcoin is up 119,660,411.6% since 2010.
Bitcoin up 30% in 2024. Dollar down about 2%.
Okay, which one do you want in your wallet? Bitcoin looks like a good bet.
Dennis L.
Its probably ok for small amounts, but… its also a pathway to CBDCs, and total loss of freedom.
Add in that AI is now running on most peoples screens… scraping data, looking for details. Imagine that AI being supplanted by a competing AI. This will happen, because its AI.
So, now your wallet is compromised.
But, what happens when the power goes out for a few days… which we are seeing happen over and over again.
If you see Bitcoin as a savings account, what is the real price of it? How many people loose their wallets? What if a payment error was made? You wont be getting it back, unless a person like me accidentally received it.
And what about that pesky 40% of the total … that no one knows who owns? What could that individual do to really mess things up?
Its obviously here to stay. But, its not morally valid, as there is too much to go wrong.
How many bitcoins have been lost to hackers, the feds, or permanently due to people just losing their passwords or keys or whatever?
“The previous comment was brought to you by Bitcoin. Invest now!”
Don’t we have rules about people soliciting products here?
Entertaining read until it became a bitcoin ad. No one is going to pay to run a bitcoin rig when power availability decreases.
excellent comment Den…..
except that bitcoin is ultimately a scam, as is anything that does not actually exist, and is worth only what the idiot youve sold it to, thinks it is…..
We know that most peoples screens now have AI running on it. It wont be long before AIs battle each over the screen Dominance.
At some point, will they not simple be looking out for the Crypt Keys for the owner’s Digital Accounts? It seems to me that something is virtual, it really has no owner.
Norm,
Ultimately the dollar is a scam, it doesn’t buy what it did last year. Ultimate depreciating asset. Since the great depression dollar has lost 95% of its value. That makes stocks look like a no brainer.
Dennis L.
Stocks are propped up by the same government that is propping the dollar.
stocks are ultimately propped up by energy surpluses…..
when theres no energy surpluses, stock values evaporate….
A person would certainly think so. But added debt seems to help, at least for a time.
added debt is our collective delusion—-ie….it can go on forever because we’ll all be paid in bitcoin.
this is why i keep banging on that bitcoin must collapse, because it has no basis in physical energy and product…
I think Bitcoin is an off-ramp designed to suppress the price of precious metals and other real assets.
As the humans agreed to be dominated by machines with the onset of cheap fossil fuel energy, they agreed to be eliminated by machines, too.
They agreed to be completely disconnected from the natural world.
Hug your AI robot killer.
without people machines will have no purpose…..and will cease to function.
stop watching terminator
Hmmm,
Does the universe have a purpose? If the universe is sentient, where does that leave people? Sort of back to the children of God.
Given your age, you will leave soon as will I. It would be nice if you could send a note from the other side.
Dennis L.
Dennis
the universe has no purpose….it just exists, and thats it….
you have the mental capacity to fantasise otherwise, but it doesnt alter reality….much we would all like it to.
my existence has been to eat and reproduce myself, no more than that….job done…..my words have maybe forked a little lightning, but i’m not ready to surrender into that goodnight just yet …….
There are some good teleological arguments that collectively suggest that the Universe is not merely a product of random processes but rather has an underlying purpose or design.
You see it as purposeless because you are looking at the Universe from an ateleological standpoint.
From a scientific standpoint, the Universe operates on natural laws and processes without the need for purpose. However, perhaps the purpose of the Universe is to operate on natural laws and processes.
the Universe began so that it would create me in about 13.7 billion years.
to me, there is no observable Universe without me in it.
New report at this link:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-negotiations-terrorists-well-retaliate-time-our-choosing-kremlin
Ukrainian Capital Burning After Heavy Russian Cruise Missile Strikes
pic.twitter.com/QOvW90Ok51
I would like to know how the Russian airport got hit because that article never said who was.responsible? If Europe had a helping hand then this could escalate things even further.
The WSJ article says that three military people were killed by the bombs, but no civilians. People had been told to stay in bunkers at night because of the bomb threat.
Didn’t see this one coming.
Apparently China is re-sourcing most/all agricultural imports, beans, corn, wheat etc. to Brazil, others. It is a matter of trust and security; the US played its cards, lost trust of being a reliable supplier and with food being basic, China went elsewhere.
Deflation of farmland? Deflation of large farm equipment? Banking crisis in the farm belt?
Money is not stuff, hard to see what China will do all with all the stuff it already has and what it will do with the capital machinery which was involved making all that stuff.
American seems to have run out the CC. It is a problem for the US, it is also a problem for those with the capital involved which requires cashflow to cover payments on the stuff. I see America as having had a large savings account, that account is spent in any case, bumpy I think.
Conclusion on my part: There are a lot of sunk costs with salvage values at zero or less which means NPV is not what one thought. Things kind of bind up.
JD which manufactures construction equipment in Dubuque, IA seems to be closing down that plant. Dubuque is a lovely city, Mississippi River city. Waterloo, IA may also have problems, tractor plant there. With farm exports seemingly in danger. IA may be in for some bumps. I loved IA, miss it greatly, now live in Rochester, MN. Medicaid and Medicare cuts will affect us here, when? I have noticed the US has some budget shortfalls.
Dennis L.
I think we have seen articles earlier about China increasingly buying food imports from non-US sources, but resourcing most/all agricultural imports would be a big step. It also would be a big loss for US farmers.
We are also reading that US farmers are raising fewer and fewer cattle over time. Cattle would be eating some of the crops grown.
The combination clearly will not be good for prices. If I remember correctly, you put some/all of your land into the land bank –get paid for not producing.
It rests the land and done well on rolling ground provides a buffer around productive land to absorb runoff. The wildlife is incredible, it is a place for them to live and also match wits with the local bobcat.
Good practice is to burn some of the land each spring. With a bit of wind that can be exciting.
I love the land, it is different from anything I have ever done; we don’t own it, it passes through our lives into the next generation. It is not ours to mine.
Dennis L.
They’ve been shifting to Brazil for years. Also, the way they often structure their contracts (according to Kevin Walmsley’s “Inside China Business” on youtube) is that they have the option of first refusal for some or all of the produce on a long-term agreement, so the USA and others no longer get to see the transactions and thus predict prices or future demand.
This administration is melting down even more…
Elon Musk
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930703865801810022
Time to drop the really big bomb:
@realDonaldTrump
is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.
Have a nice day, DJT!
12:10 PM · Jun 5, 2025 64.4M Views
Zerohedge keeps updating:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/im-very-disappointed-elon-trump-responds-musk-opposition-big-beautiful-bill
Musk ‘Yes’ On Trump Impeachment; Will ‘Immediately’ Decommission SpaceX Dragon & Doubles Down On Epstein Claims
There were rumors long before that Trump was part of the Epstein scene.
Trump and Musk both seem to be using drugs to enhance their performance. I expect that that adds another dimension to how well they do (or do not) get along.
I think it was fairly well known. What is surprising is that Musk is the one who makes use of it first. Ivan is aptly describing the scene in DC now. Elon is losing is only real source of money (big, beautiful public contracts) and he is not taking it kindly. Surely there is a meltdown at zerohedge but have no time to look at it.
EV’s only work with government subsidies. People need a reason to buy a Tesla or other EV and that’s where subsidies via tax credits or incentives to buy one.
I also think and this is just my personal opinion is that while he was helping Trump with DOGE, the crazed lunatics on the Left where threatening and damaging the Tesla brand and its cars.
It’s all theatre. Eeyore was as well known to Maxwell/Epstein as Trump (lots of photos to prove it).
If Trump is being moved on, it won’t be because anything Eeyore says and I doubt it would be yet, as there’s too much use left in him. Who else could get away with the infantile language and so change people’s perception so quickly?
This is the level they deserve.
https://www.normalisland.co.uk/p/heart-breaking-scenes-as-your-two
Vance is Eeyore’s old partners lackey, so possible that he eventually takes over, but he comes across as about the same intelligence level as Harris.
It might be better to look for whatever this theatre is cover for.
While it’s a low bar, Vance is the most intelligent VP in my lifetime, minus perhaps Dick Cheney who was ultimately inscrutable to me at the time. That puts considerable distance between Vance and Kamala.
Can I ask what makes you consider him the most intelligent over those decades?
I don’t follow political theatre, so can only go on the few snippets I’ve seen/read. He doesn’t come across as a thinker(more Mary Truss level), but I’m sure there’s lots I’ve missed.
To give him his due, he did follow his prompt in the Zelenskyy production a while back and stuck to his lines, although he gave the prompt away(too quick, too eager) and overplayed it somewhat(he could learn a lot from Zelenskyy). It was more believable when they dropped the pretence and just stuck actors in the roles. Vance looks single use, even compared to B level Zelenskyy
I look at his dreadful competition first. JD is a good thinker if not, as the ideologue he is, a deep and truly critical thinker. He’s sharp, quick, competitive, has a high-capacity for knowledge retention. He’s a a card carrying member of the manosphere, with eyeliner. Don’t get me wrong I don’t like him and his Machiavellian life choices. Big-time premeditated princess act during the Zelensky meeting. And you’re right, his timing was off but Zelensky probably wasn’t in on it so when you’re given the greenlight you can get a little too trigger happy.
“He’s a a card carrying member of the manosphere, with eyeliner”
I like that. Suits him well.
I’m still unconvinced, but given your comment about the competition, I’m probably swayed by history to expect nothing else. There’s bound to be an unrehearsed blow up at some point, so I’ll wait to see how he performs.
Kulm commented “Trump rejected Musk’s guy who was to head NASA and Musk is having a falling out”
… makes a lot of sense, Elon is pissed his guy who will control the purse strings for SpaceX is out
Interesting point!
Musk’s funding is also being greatly reduced in the “Big, Beautiful Bill.”
It’s bigger than that. The Hand just hit GO on the political destruction of Trump. Didn’t take long because we don’t have much time. Elon can run circles around Trump in a dogfight. And Trump is an inveterate liar which will cost him. Nobody likes a boldfaced liar. As Elon said, The BBB fiasco is not about any cuts to his own subsidies, even if the oil and gas industry does not have its subsidies cut – it’s about the pork.
reply to self. Did someone just say “decommissioning?” Marco…Polo…Marco…Polo….
>> Elon can run circles around Trump in a dogfight.
I think it’s something else completely. Elon got punked. The rest of the administration, which includes at least some Peter Thiel guys, released and passed the bill as soon as Elon left the administration. Elon found out only then that he was getting screwed and Trump just does what he’s told / as is arranged.
But at the same time you would agree that the narrative you are presenting is political theater, right? The dog eat dog cutthroat tech oligarchy clown show for all the world to see. Isn’t that also the NYT narrative that always provides political cover for something darker?
i don’t know that it’s just theater – both the darker plans and clown show can be true at the same time
Yes
Reply to self 2. ZH following this in realtime. Release the hounds of political assassination as the word turns:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930719235770359903?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1930719235770359903%7Ctwgr%5E2066adc52b91506815ba2732497155a3dca703dc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fim-very-disappointed-elon-trump-responds-musk-opposition-big-beautiful-bill
now we will never go to the singularity, darn it. Given enough pork in enough big bills, I think the singularity could be reached.
rats!
I’ve been away and upon my return I get this devastating news!
looks more like WW3 and no singularity.
life is not fair.
I never put any hopes on Musk . Only the ex dentist did.
kul,
If space cannot be mined, then life changes rapidly. One wants a group, one wants a skill.
Elon had the guts to go for broke, he made something. No one knows how this works out, options are always nice.
Dennis L.
Elon never made anything. Like Zuckerberg, he stepped into a role.
Inertia , momentum , electricity grids , economy . Physics meets economy . Use translator .
https://beamspot.substack.com/p/inercia
This is a fairly long article about the cause of the recent interruption to electricity supply in Spain.
Near the beginning, he says:
Later he says,
Later,
He later talks about flywheels adding inertia, which stabilizes the grid. The rotary motion of the Wind Turbine adds some inertia as well (if I understand correctly).
He shows this chart, which is in English,
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc56179f-9e1c-48f1-beae-b30f9fce3b00_540x301.jpeg
The graph shows that there was huge drop in inertia, as solar power was substituted for other types of electricity. This was important in bringing down the grid.
There is much more in the article.
This is a very diligent and full of rational arguments study. Very helpful to understand the present and glean into the future, mostly on economic terms .
My only reservation is that War is not a rational event and that warfare is somehow built-in the human DNA.
With the West arming at a fast rate and the geopolitical instability increasing the impossible is becoming possible.
you are correct that the urge to war is in our DNA.
so if bigger wars in the near future are “the impossible is becoming possible”, then it’s merely human nature, and there will always be wars as long as there are humans.
WW3?
in my opinion, talk of WW3 is for bloggers seeking attention.
bigger regional wars? Oh sure, why not.
I am afraid the US is becoming less able to fight a conventional war. The materials we need to make weapons are in China, and China isn’t willing to sell them to us.
This is an overview of what many are currently looking at in farming. I have mentioned the Au farmers, 30k acres moving to robotics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aabkKhm4GE
I learn from you guys, these robots are electrically powered, solar comes to mind, solar is maximal in summer, crops grow in summer. Formerly corded tools are going batteries and have changeable batteries; changeable batteries for farm machinery, store solar on site.
Solar is intermittent, plants grow intermittently, so farming electrically is serendipity.
Running a steel mill with solar is not possible, unlessssss, well in space; refine closer to the sun and use fusion(excuse me, solar) energy directly through radiation.
Fish are a huge problem, there enough problems for all, share some, don’t hog. The world needs fish in the oceans.
AgOpenGPS appears to have the basics of the electronics sort of off the shelf. This is a worldwide opensource effort.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiyDXU-lgrM&list=PL1N2N2XFHWW1fIDhb7koOa7hxH0LGppYc&index=2
Think of the videos as overviews, there are many now.
These ideas seem consistent with Gail’s ideas. They can be intermittent; they are small and adaptable.
Truth be known, I miss the age of big Cadillacs, big fins, big engines, dual exhausts; one adapts to what is.
Dennis L.
Top video shows a robot machine with the ability to zap weeds with electricity. Electricity would seem to have fewer bad after effects than herbicides. But no income would go back to farmer (other than savings on using herbicides) that I can see.
Data is beginning to show the effects of US tariffs:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-trade-deficit-shrinks-most-record-april-imports-plunged
The guess now is that US GDP will look a whole lot better, with this kind of effect taking place.
you can’t manufacture low priced goods within the borders of a high wage nation.
Yes it can and will be done.
If Optimus-3 is real, the variable inputs are energy which are probably similar to that of humans.
This world today is not yesterday. I have a post up regarding agriculture; current ag barely works. I am not familiar with huge agriculture but the Au, robotic farmers report as they moved up in large hp tractors, returns went down, not up. They report being mostly robotic, 30K give or take acres.
It is going to be bumpy and some who have long held ideas which no longer work will find it a challenge. There are rebels such as myself who seem to adapt to change. Today’s dogma is often tomorrow’s discarded ideology. Being on the scrap heap of history is probably very depressing.
Dennis L.
ah yes Dennis
“if””
where would we be without your “ifs”?
Well, it also helps to have “else.”
Now for the really difficult, perhaps an “else if.”
Dennis L.
Dennis
I checked ”optimus 3”….just out of curiousity….
you have outdone yourself in standards of ridiculosity—-you and Elon both.
It is not possible to build any form of multifunction robot for $2500.
Add a couple of noughts to that, its functions would still be very limited.
Where do you get your gullibility tablets?—how may do you take a day??
sheesh….
ive warned you before about watching repeats of terminator—now i know you and elon have boys nights in to watch them….
not a good idea….
elon is the ultimate bs artist
Optimus 3 is supposed to be a low-priced personal assistance robot by Elon Musk that can help some people with physical disabilities. It is set to launch in 2025.
https://elonbuzz.com/elon-musk-announces-2025-tesla-optimus-bot-gen-3-under-2579/
But can it drive a Taxi?
Optimus 3 isn’t real though. No more than “Full Self Driving” or Starship being on Mars by 2025 is.
I don’t understand why a man as old, wise, and smart as you has put his hopes into a clearly false prophet like Elon Musk, frankly.
You can if you can repeal all the laws that create artificial high wages. In theory. Half the reason why NATO countries and other developed countries are high-cost countries is because there is a lot of regulation around labor.
once you have high collective wages—you cant remove them…
because the economic systems adjusts to high wages….eg– cost of homes.
deflate wages and the national economy collapses….
Why do you think the people in charge have purposely thrown terms like “great reset” or “build back better” around?
What about “creative destruction”?
If the rich were afraid of destroying previous wealth, they would never embrace new technology or new regulation…Something like esg has been used to get rid of expensive employees and cut back wages….create barriers to entry.
They also have no problem with firing high income employees and replacing them with software. If fact, that’s what most of them are fantasizing about with the ai rhetoric. They don’t care about the widespread ramifications of demand reduction.
/////Why do you think the people in charge have purposely thrown terms like “great reset” or “build back better” around? /////
to give the impression that they know something we dont—ie they are smarter than we are…..which isnt true at all… there will be no ”great reset”—that is pure BS. And building anything requires cheap energy—there is none.
look at musk—-thinking he can play world politics, and suckers will go on buying his cars…..stupid in the extreme.—his car buyers walked away. His Space X thing is dependent on government contracts between best buddies….that is going down too….. you cant run viable businesses on that basis.
we see musk, and recognise an idiot….who has the inner conviction that no matter what he does, his personal way of life will remain unaffected……this is clearly not the case, so he quickly decouples himself from the don to engage in damage control….
that is just one instance….
yes you can replace some people with software…..but the fact remains that waged people buy goods and services, AI buys nothing at all….it just consumes energy …..
and therein lies the crunch. Have automated production with buyers reduced to poverty….. that is the economics of insanity. (tell me otherwise??)
—-maybe they understand that and think it will only apply to other businessess—not theirs….who knows. Musk seems to be as daft as that.
but it remains a fact of economic life….. our current level of existence depends on 2 way commerce…..one way commerce is like one handed applause….you are just waving to people.