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We are starting to see the beginnings of deglobalization: Countries are increasingly at odds with each other. There is wider disparity among political parties. Trump is making what look to many people like unreasonable demands, both within the US and around the world.
I believe that there is an underlying problem that most people are missing. A worldwide shortage of diesel and jet fuel is forcing international trade to begin moving into a new downward phase, relative to the recent share of GDP shown on Figure 1.
While international trade grew as a percentage of GDP between the 1960s and 2008, it has been basically flat since then. Now the shortages of diesel and jet fuel are forcing the international trade percentage to start falling to a lower level.
In this post, I will try to explain the situation further. One conclusion: Conflict results from the need to reorganize the world economy in a way that uses less long-distance international trade.
[1] Background: The world economy is a dissipative structure, operating under the laws of physics.
The economy behaves differently than most researchers assume because economies are dissipative structures, operating under the laws of physics. Most researchers model tiny parts of economies, and because their views are so narrow, they reach misleading or wrong conclusions.
Most structures that we see, such as books or houses, are, in a sense, dead. Dissipative structures, however, are different in that they can temporarily grow. In order to stay away from being in a dead state, they need to “dissipate” energy of the proper kinds, in adequate amounts. Examples of dissipative structures include plants and animals of all kinds, ecosystems, and hurricanes.
The human body is a dissipative structure that requires food to stay away from a dead state. Hurricanes are dissipative structures that dissipate the heat of a warm body of water.
If an ecosystem doesn’t get enough energy of the right kinds, it will adapt to accommodate the actual mix of fuels and other resources available. If an ecosystem doesn’t get enough sunlight, or enough warm temperatures, or enough water, it will gradually shift toward a different mix of plants and animals that can operate within the mix of resources available. This is similar to what happens within the human body. If a human doesn’t get enough food, their body will shrink or become thinner.
I believe that without adequate diesel and jet fuel, our economy will make a transition analogous to a human going on a diet, or analogous to an ecosystem changing when a different mix of resources is available.
Academic researchers around the world have misunderstood how the process works because they tend to work in ivory towers. They create models based on the narrow view of the economy that their academic area considers appropriate. Once they have developed a narrow model, they cling to it, even though recent insights from physics suggest that a very different model is more appropriate.
[2] Researchers in academic settings make many unwarranted simplifications in their models.
Researchers like to assume that all energy is alike. Substitution is assumed to be relatively easy and quick. Models tend to indicate that if the supply of energy is inadequate, prices will rise. With these higher prices, the economic system will keep problems away practically indefinitely.
The real world doesn’t work this way. When we eat food, we cannot simply substitute kale for all our other food consumption and expect to thrive, even though models would seem to suggest that kale is good for us. Within ecosystems, it is the mix of resources and predators that matters. If the top-level predator is killed off, the system will change. The world economy will face similar changes if today’s international transport system runs into difficulties.
[3] The fuels especially used for international transport today are diesel and jet fuel.
To be useful in international transport, fuels need to
- Be energy dense
- Be easy to store
- Match current infrastructure, unless change is many years away, and system is rebuilt
- Be inexpensive; not require a lot of capital investment in infrastructure to support
Diesel and jet fuel have long been the prime fuels used for international travel and transport. “Bunker fuel,” which tends to be heavier and more polluting, has also been used. Its use is strongly discouraged today because of pollution issues.
[4] An issue we have today is that diesel is also essential for many other uses.
Diesel is an essential fuel today for food production and local transport. Most of the agricultural equipment now in use operates using diesel fuel. Diesel-powered machines can easily navigate muddy fields. In addition, diesel also powers most of the heavy semi-trucks around the world. These trucks deliver goods of all kinds, locally, including food.
Another essential use for diesel is building and maintaining infrastructure. This would include:
- Roads
- Bridges
- Pipelines
- Commercial buildings
- Factories
- Electricity transmission lines
- Building and maintaining structures used to produce electricity, such as nuclear power plants and hydroelectric plants
The importance of diesel to the economy is difficult for most people to see because these are behind-the-scenes types of activities.
[5] It is very difficult to get the price of diesel to rise for any extended period.
If the price of diesel rises, the price of food tends to rise. This happens because diesel is heavily used in food production and transport. Needless to say, high food prices tend to be unpopular with voters. For this reason, even if the diesel supply is low, the price of the fuel doesn’t necessarily rise. If this happened, voters would be very unhappy. They would elect new politicians.
What, in fact, tends to happen is that oil prices (not just diesel and jet fuel prices) tend to bounce up and down. Figure 2 shows a chart of average annual oil prices.
Figure 2 smooths out some of the price irregularities. For example, there was a very high peak in July 2008, but the price fell to a low level by December of the same year. The peak doesn’t appear very high on this chart, but it greatly affected financial markets. See my article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.
[6] Diesel and jet fuel disproportionately come from oil that is quite “heavy.” Oil refineries tend to offer lower prices for heavy oil, making it unattractive to extract.
There is a price compression problem with heavy oil:
- Heavy oil tends to be difficult to ship because it doesn’t flow through pipelines well. It often needs to be heated, or diluted with a very light oil, to make transportation possible.
- To make matters worse, heavy oil quite often contains sulfur and other impurities that need to be removed, adding refining costs.
- The problem is that these higher costs cannot easily be passed on to the ultimate consumers of diesel and jet fuel. For example, food production and transport depend significantly on diesel, and sometimes even on jet fuel. Consumers of food do not like high food costs.
Because of these issues, the prices refineries are willing to pay for heavy oil tend to be lower than the prices they offer for “light, sweet” oil. For example, the current oil prices shown on OilPrice.com are $70.51 for Brent Crude (a light, sweet European crude), $65.13 for West Texas Intermediate (a sweet US crude) and $50.86 for Western Canadian Select, from Canada’s Oil Sands. Russia also has moderately heavy oil; Russia’s Urals blend is diluted to make it flow adequately. Its price is listed at $54.48.
These pricing issues make the extraction of heavy oil, especially very heavy oil, unattractive to oil companies. Basically, oil prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, to make extraction profitable. People who look at the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) of resource extraction would say that the EROEI is very low. In other words, a huge amount of energy needs to be invested to make heavy oil extraction possible. This tends to make the cost of oil extraction expensive.
Because of this price compression, and thus the low prices paid to oil producers, it is not very profitable for oil companies to extract heavy oil. This means that governments cannot charge these companies very high taxes, or they will stop producing oil completely. In addition, tax revenue collected from oil producers tends to fall too low to provide adequate government services., and it also becomes difficult to pay workers adequate wages. These issues lead to unrest in countries with heavy oil reserves, but not much other industry, such as Venezuela.
[7] A naive look at the oil data received from the various agencies does not disclose the nature of the world’s oil problem.
A chart summarizing the consumption of different types of oil, based on data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, is as shown in Figure 3. Note that the Diesel+Jet Fuel layer is the product grouping with the largest consumption. In the US, we hear a lot about Gasoline, but Diesel+Jet Fuel is the layer with the greatest fuel consumption. Diesel+Jet Fuel provides a huge quantity of services, but its usage is mostly hidden from sight.
Most published data show only the sum of the four layers in Figure 3. It seems to be rising. This amount represents a combination of quite a few types of oil. When this increasing production is considered along with the reported high oil reserves (particularly heavy oil in Canada and Venezuela), and the belief that prices will always rise if there is a shortage, most researchers cannot imagine that a problem might be occurring.
Researchers often overlook how crucial oil is to the economy. People all over the world need food, roads, and many other things that depend on oil. The number of people who can make an adequate living seems to depend upon the oil supply. It makes sense to look at oil supply per capita. The chart below uses the same amounts, divided by world population. On this basis, world oil consumption is flatter. In fact, per capita oil supply has been somewhat declining recently.
The other thing that becomes apparent from this chart is that the overall mix of products coming out of current processes (extracting and refining oil) has been getting lighter over time. This should not be surprising because the most rapidly growing oil supply since 2008 has been tight oil, extracted from shale in the United States. This tight oil tends to be quite light, adding output to the Light Group and to Gasoline, far more than to Diesel+Jet Fuel or the Heavy Group.
[8] The pattern of diesel supply growth provides insight into what is going wrong with world trade.
Diesel is about 78% of the combined grouping Diesel+Jet Fuel. The two are similar enough that refineries can slightly change the output mix between the two.
The World Trade Organization began operation in 1995. Its purpose was to encourage more world trade. The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 encouraged countries to cut their own CO2 emissions. The easiest way to do this was by sending manufacturing, mining, and other industries to other countries around the world. Thus, indirectly, the Kyoto Protocol also encouraged world trade. Figure 5 shows that between 1995 and 2008, per-capita world diesel consumption was increasing. The restriction in supply that began around 2008 corresponds with the flattening of world international trade shown in Figure 1.
[9] Several issues contributed to the drop in per-capita diesel supply starting about 2008.
(a) In the period before 2008, there was relatively more oil in the Heavy Group that could be refined into Diesel + Jet Fuel (Figure 4). Notice how the Heavy Group layer gets narrower, especially between 1980 and 2008. The Heavy Group includes end uses such as lubricants, waxes, and asphalt. It also includes some heavy oil consumed in close to an unrefined state, such as bunker fuel for ships. Burning such oil is very polluting, so laws have been changed to discourage its use. Simple refining could transform oil such as bunker oil into diesel and jet fuel.
(b) A technique called hydrocracking can be used to transform long hydrocarbon molecules, such as the ones that make up asphalt, into shorter ones. The EIA in 2013 reported, Hydrocracking is an important source of diesel and jet fuel. This technique is expensive, however. It needs a high selling price of crude oil for the economics to work. If the price of oil is high enough, it makes sense to make less asphalt, and more diesel oil and jet fuel.
(c) Price differentials tend to discourage the development of heavy oil fields. As documented in Section [6], the price refineries are willing to pay for heavy oil tends to be quite a bit lower than the price of lighter oil. In the early days of extraction, medium grades of oil tended to give a range of products, from light to heavy. But peak conventional oil took place about 2005, forcing oil companies to extract both very light grades and very heavy grades, with the hope of combining the two types of output to meet the needs of society. Since 2008, the growth in light oil extraction has been spectacular, particularly in the US, with its tight oil from shale. But growth in the heavy oil supply has tended to lag.
(d) Depletion is an issue for oil supplies. As with many other resources, the oil taken first is the oil that is easiest to extract and the closest to where the end product is to be used. The oil that is left for later tends to be higher cost to extract and transport. High-cost oil is likely to produce high-cost food. High-cost food tends to upset family budgets, making voters unhappy.
(e) Political issues play a role as well. A major issue is the low profitability of heavy oil extraction because of its low sales price to refineries. With low profitability, tax revenue based on oil royalties tends to be low. Without adequate tax revenue, leaders of countries producing heavy oil for export tend to become belligerent. Examples include Venezuela, Russia, and Canada. Within the US, California produces heavy oil.
[10] The world order seems to on the verge of radical change.
We are now facing a situation in which the world economic order seems to be breaking apart, in order to form a new order that “works” better with the changing quantity of Diesel+Jet Fuel available.
We are dealing with a situation that has much in common with a game of musical chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. At the beginning, there are as many players as chairs. In each round, one of the chairs is removed. The players walk around the circle of chairs until the music stops. When the music stops, all the players try to grab a chair to sit on. There can be small fights over who gets a chair. The person who does not get a chair is eliminated from the game.
When an economy is faced with an inadequate supply of Diesel+Jet Fuel, it needs to regroup in a different way. To do this, some existing businesses and governments must fail, so that others can take their place. In addition, supply lines need to be rearranged to use the resources that are actually available. Customs and beliefs may need to change, as well.
The way nations interact can change as well. In the years of growing international trade, (1970s to 2008), co-operation seemed to be important. Working together was relatively easy. During the tearing down stage, which seems to be starting now, the situation can be expected to be very different. We can expect assertive leaders, and lots of conflict. We are facing this strained situation today.
[11] What lies ahead?
I don’t think that any of us know for certain what will happen in the future. Nevertheless, the self-organizing world economy seems to be organizing for itself what is ahead. Or perhaps, the hand of a Higher Power is organizing what is happening.
I have only discussed the problem of inadequate Diesel+Jet Fuel, and its impact on international trade and some other parts of the economy. There are other shortages that the world economy needs to work around, that I have not touched on:
In many parts of the world, one shortage is of fresh water. This is often connected with depleted aquifers and today’s high human population.
Another shortage relates to the critical minerals required for a high-tech society. Billionaire Robert Friedland describes the issue in this video. We have plunged headlong into high tech goods of all kinds, including wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, computers, and electrification of many kinds of things without realizing that we would soon reach limits in the supply of many minerals used in making these high-tech devices.
For many of these minerals, China controls the vast majority of these critical minerals. Countries must try to start producing their own critical minerals, or remain on good enough terms with China to purchase some of the limited supplies available.
A third shortage relates to nuclear, and our plans to ramp up nuclear energy. As far as I can see, uranium extraction is currently constrained. In theory, it can be ramped up, but it takes a long chain of events to do so.
With these shortages, AI seems to be constrained in how quickly its use can be expanded. It needs to become far more energy efficient to be truly useful.
With all of these issues, it seems impossible to keep forging ahead as we have done in the recent past. We are being forced to source more of our manufactured output locally. We need to greatly reduce the transportation of goods across the Atlantic and Pacific. Using tariffs seems to be a way of trying to accomplish this change.
Strange as it may seem, some of Trump’s policies make a certain amount of sense, when viewed in the light of the issues the world is facing. I expect that a replacement leader would be just as abrasive. The new leader would likely have different strange policies, but the underlying problems are structural. The new leader would likely also face difficulties in trying to fix today’s problems.
I am afraid we will have to wait for the self-organizing economic system to find a solution for us. Perhaps innovations can bring us new ways of doing things that will eventually work around these difficulties. But, for the near term, higher levels of conflict because of resource shortages seem likely.
This is from a country that exports maximum oil to the EU . Hello , goodye .
Equinor forecasts 10%–20% production decline at Johan Sverdrup field in 2026.
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/2/4/equinor-forecasts-10-20-production-decline-at-johan-sverdrup-field-in-2026/
The article also says:
While Norway’s oil and gas production is due to remain around current levels through the end of the decade, lack of investment to moderate the subsequent decline will result in a “significant downsizing” of the industry in the years to come, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said in January.
Olympics are to horrific start
Olympics horror as star skier rushed to hospital in helicopter
An official Olympics event has been called off as a world champ was rushed to hospital after a high speed crash on a notorious slope.
https://www.news.com.au/sport/olympics/olympics-horror-as-star-skier-rushed-to-hospital-in-helicopter/news-story/5606b61df79f6774c29422d5aea38482
Canada-Finland women’s hockey game postponed after Finnish players fall ill with norovirus
Finland’s team spokesperson says 13 players are either infected or in quarantine
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/olympics/winter/hockey/canada-finland-olympic-womens-hockey-postponed-9.7075128
This doesn’t sound good. People have purchased tickets. Now the games aren’t being played as planned. “Postponed” doesn’t work for people who have purchased air tickets to see the events.
One in two Germans will develop cancer in the course of their lives
“Shortly before World Cancer Day on February 4, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) published frightening figures: Almost every second German will develop cancer in the course of his or her life. One in six women and one in seven men is diagnosed before the age of 65.”
https://www.morgenpost.de/ratgeber-wissen/article411079335/jeder-zweite-deutsche-erkrankt-im-laufe-seines-lebens-an-krebs.html
A paper published long ago: autopsies of men who died in accidents showed that, only in the digestive tract, at 35 most had a cancerous lesion, and at 50 all of them had at least one. we all have cancer. when the immune system is no longer able to keep it in check we succumb to it.
Sure…
to be specific, that paper was about any lesion, benign or malignant. many other papers with same methodology show around 30% malignant at around 70, but not growing much (not the cause of death). It is good to have a good idea of how the human body works. That will save you from posting meaningless trivia.
One battle after another…
https://www.thecollector.com/danse-macabre-middle-ages-danse-of-death/
Remember reading a book regarding the life of author Mark Twain and the writer pointing out the numerous mentions of someone dying in his correspondences, which was very commonplace in those times. Perhaps Gail is correct, we are indeed not realistic in our expectations.
I’m nearing the big 70 and in good health and realize it can turn in a dime…still lived better than Royalty in Medieval Age
Yes, plus on a tangential, read about long time ago..
Basically, the study-article drilled into the specific situation of impoverished elite circles during the baroque and classicism era. So lets picture a branch of noble family, which for some reason is stripped from previous levels of income, and in order to [ keep appearances ] they had to improvise. Most often they actively sought help under the wing of more prosperous relatives, and as we know all nobles-elites are to some extent one family, hah. The practical arrangement usually meant they were provided with some ~marginal wing of the palace, sometimes even assigned w. token yearly stipend, their own small cadre of servants etc.
However, sometimes they ran out of luck, and they had to economize down brutally. Most of this happened in emigrant circles where the direct family links were not that strong or even sometime non-existent.
The account depicts hilarious scenes, notably as they had to protect their last and most important property – the wardrobe – an elaborate costume essentially. So, in order not to damage it – spoil it, they recluse themselves during regular meal servings, dinner parties etc. As they tried to share a meme that they don’t eat because of age-medical condition, and then asked the servants for some food scraps put aside for their own entourage consumption – which they ate in private hiding themselves afterwards. Obviously, this has been revealed sooner or later and everybody within that posh society circle pretended it’s otherwise..
This is a very interesting link you posted. It is clearly about how an overshoot and collapse situation played out, starting in the early 1300s. It says near the beginning:
With good conditions, the population quickly grew. It only took two centuries for England’s population to grow from one million inhabitants in 1086 to six of seven million during the 13th century. The same trend occurred elsewhere in Europe, and historians estimate that the entire continent contained between 70 and 100 million inhabitants during the 13th century. Food supplies could not keep up with the growing population, and several catastrophes devastated Europe during the 14th century.
Somehow, people learned to live with much higher death rates that took place. Artwork changed to glorify death, and to make it a part of life.
I think of Canada, and its recent change to allow people to give up babies under one years old, to be put to death, if they have some serious problem. And Canada’s promotion of euthanasia for all kinds of problems, including intractable pain and depression.
The world has to change. The US is spending huge amounts on keeping people who are barely alive functioning. This situation makes no sense.
This concept of terminal disease kept at bay for long time is very interesting, thanks.
In general though, it’s a tug of war between ~healthier lifestyles vs apparently more polluted environment ( in a different sense / vector ).
For example, very %few people practice chain-smoking or heavy liqueur abuse as of today. Not mentioning eating regularly spoiled meat, bread, drinking water etc. That was the chief reason for drastically limited life expectancy.
On the other hand, ~triviality such as working and or living w. aircon for long hours every day, which includes some nasty aging parts – chemical pollutants can shorten your life unexpectedly as well.
I guess there was even some case in ~1970-80s where certain line of bizjets had to be revamped because of carcinogenic elements inside the aircon sys.
The Energy Density Problem “Technology Connections” Won’t Talk About . A good one .
A creative way to get the message across:
Technology does not equal energy.
All solar panels and wind turbines are produced by fossil fuels.
7 billion people would die off out of 8 million people would die within a decade without fossil fuels.
Batteries are too heavy to work in farm setting. Don’t substitute for diesel.
EVs cost twice as much as fossil fuels, after many years. Free solar energy costs too much when cost of building a car using electricity.
Tax rebates on EVs go to the already rich. No electric semi-trucks and many other things.
Fossil fuels are a battery that has been charging for centuries. Need to use wind and solar when produced.
Knowing how to do something doesn’t keep 8 billion people alive.
I think they may have to tank markets to keep the gold price in check. If they tank the markets, I think maybe gold/silver stays close to where it’s at, but if they don’t tank the markets, it continues its rise.
this is the classic lesser than two evils I guess. Inflict a painful cut to every 401K out there, or collapse it all. so the musical chair losers list at this point includes most of Europe, gold bugs, and US pensioners and near pensioners.
Remember reading even real estate was a losing investment during the Great Depression because of upkeep, lack of tenants able to pay the rent, property taxes, ect (something we are seeing today). I mentioned the book here a long time ago that was based on a journal of an account that lived then very good read.
PS lots of farmers went broke too, same that what’s happening today, 😩
Maybe my deflation story is not as ridiculous as it sounds, especially when it relates to stock prices, home prices, farm prices, and other asset prices.
But the price of food can rise, or be allocated based upon work done in the current period to produce and distribute that food. New clothing can become scarce. Heat for homes can become a thing of the past.
Where is trump he has not threatened anyone in the last five days? I understand he needs to lie low until the Epstein issue cools down. He needs to speed up the takeover of Cuba. I want a winter get away house near the beach.
Maybe he’s reading through those six million pages with a black marker pen in one hand and a red one in the other? I hear there is a lot of spicy gossip and suggestive wordplay in them, although where I come from, reading other people’s private emails is considered to be in very bad taste.
Tim,
Freak weather event in national park leads to cull of 700 koalas
The number of koalas being euthanised is expected to climb and experts are urging the government change course.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/freak-weather-event-in-national-park-leads-to-cull-of-700-koalas-033624954.html
Just like in Canada with the Ostrich farm.
There’s dirty work afoot. No doubt about it.
Are you crooked?
Do you have a crooked smile?
Forrest Maready noticed that people in the old days, from the earliest photographs before the US Civil War right down to the cast of 1990s shows such as Friends, almost uniformly had straight smiles.
But then, with the Harry Potter movies, it all changed. A lot of the actors in that movie had, and still have, crooked smiles.
Click the link below and watch and listen to the video to find out more. Watch and listen for 10 minutes and, by hook or by crook, you’ll be hooked on the rest of it.
https://unbekoming.substack.com/p/crooked-man-made-disease-explained
I am seeing video of houses for sale in Tokyo near subway stations for cheap 70 to 90 thousand dollars. How is that possible? Apartments in Beijing are two million dollars.
They don’t comply with earthquake standards. They were built quite a while ago.
Three reasons: location, location, and they were built quite a while ago.
You can find apartments in Tokyo selling for US$2 million or more, and you can find houses in small towns and country areas that sell for 1 yen.
With the Japanese population dropping by almost a million people a year these days, overall, there are bound to be more homes on the market than buyers or renters.
Good points!
Falling population leads to an oversupply of homes. This is true in China.
California seems to be losing population. I wonder what happens there.
the housing thing is an interesting side effect of the population problem.
you take out, say, a 250 k mortage now, for 25 years
but if the pop crashes, then the value of your house does too—your house is only worth what someone else will pay for it.
but despite the crash in value—the mortgage debt remains…..and with the pop crash, not enough wealth is collectively generated to sustain the forawrd momentum of the ‘system’ that allows continual house purchase.
what an interesting future to look forard to….
might be an interesting subject line for an article there Gail….
Good points! The population crash varies by part of the country, I expect, also.
Re. Norman’s point, I know people who lost their houses during the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, but amazingly, their mortgages survived.
These people were allowed to take out a second mortgage—including two-generation mortgage option where parent and child sign up for up to half a century of repayments.
Sadly for mortgage borrowers, homeowners insurance policies in Japanese cities almost universally exclude earthquake damage. Because of this, borrowers need to purchase separate, optional earthquake insurance if they want that coverage. And many people in Kobe didn’t have such coverage because it wasn’t generally appreciated that Kobe (which is a new city, having been founded in the mid-19th century) experiences big earthquakes every few centuries.
Just as Warren Buffet told insurance holds we will not cover nuclear war damage. Nuclear war and earthquakes are just too big for insurance companies to cover.
I expect as we go forward, nuclear war and earthquakes will become too big for governments to cover, as well.
Damage to systems may mostly remain in place.
That was my wife’s take also. No kids, no buyers.
What’s with his stopped clock?
With that said, yes I believe that both our mental and *physical environment* does things to us.
Looking around me I’m very happy that I had my last vaccine in 1990 and a portion of luck before that.
Crooked smile is a fine article. Thanks for the hook-up.
I’m very glad at least one person bothered to look at it. Thank you!
I’m listening to Maready’s video on how aluminum causes damage and symptoms in the body right now.
He’s a very good explainer and not at all pushy.
Keeping posting, Tim. I find those articles very interesting.
We gave our eldest child the first 2 rounds of vaccines until I read the ingredients. I had a spreadsheet tracking the amount of aluminium in each dose for the entire UK vaccine schedule.
I asked my mum (a retired midwife), “What is the safe amount of aluminium to inject into a child?”
Her response, “None really.”
Just to keep track my reporters in Beijing report all is well, all is normal, all is quiet. People are happy and working on planning their spring festival vacations.
This Indian commentator—a nice young lady without even a hint of a crooked smile—while lamenting the fact that of the 100 most polluted cities world wide, 94 are in India, makes a comparison between the Indian National Capital Territory of Delhi with the Chinese capital of Peking—which she calls Beijing, but in solidarity with Kulm, I continue to call Peking. While Delhi’s air remains horrible, the Chinese capital that was the world’s most polluted city in 2014 with visibility often as poor as 20 meters, improved tremendously and recorded its cleanest year ever in 2024.
How did the Chinese do it?
They created a five-action plan with specific measurable targets.
They shut down the biggest polluters—permanently closing over 2000 factories in and around Peking.
They relocated the huge Shougang Steel Factory well outside the city to nearby Hebei Province.
The replaced millions of filthy domestic coal-fired heating appliances with nice clean electric or gas appliances.
They hugely expanded the public rapid transit system, building a thousand km of railways and also switching from ICE engines to electricity for tens of thousands of buses.
They planted 54,000 new trees in and around the city.
They made it economically “stupid” to burn agricultural stubble by making it possible for farmers to sell it to biomass power plants at guaranteed prices.
The lady says they also monitored and enforced these policies “ruthlessly”, Sounds positively Trumpian!
Result: much cleaner air.
India, on the other hand, has terribly polluted air, as far as I know.
In tune with the theme of this post ” Deglobalisation ” . Patrick Raymond from France .https://lachute.over-blog.com/2026/02/deglobalisation.html
This is part of his post:
In the great maelstrom of deglobalization, there is a leading sector in China. In the past, the country imported waste for sorting.
Today, China no longer imports, but it burns its waste in thermal power plants. This is undoubtedly what so alarmed environmentalists; in fact, it has built so many of these plants that they are operating below capacity. This undercapacity is likely due to the need to build them as close as possible to the producers (of waste), namely large cities, thus minimizing the need for them to travel long distances.
In addition, old landfills are being reopened to supply these power plants.
China’s continued construction of numerous coal-fired power plants is linked to the industrial decline of other sectors, such as steelmaking. Steelmaking is also a major consumer of coal, and power plants can be seen as a way to manage the overall decrease in coal use.
The steel industry has entered a phase of self-consumption, where annual production is increasingly driven by recycling, which produces lower-quality steel. The decline is still slight, with production still reaching 961 million tonnes.
Part of our current problem is a decline in higher quality coal, especially near cities. This is a topic I didn’t cover.
Recycling of waste was supposed to be a way to use the empty capacity of ships, on the way back, after dropping off manufactured goods to rich countries. But recycling of most waste makes little sense unless the price of oil is very high. China got out of the business January 1, 2018, and other countries followed suit. I understand Europe burns waste as fuel, too. The US still tries to push recycling, even though the non-metal part makes little sense.
B from the Honest Sorcerer comes out from hiding in this interview with Nate Hagens. His real name is Balázs Matics.
The blurb underneath says:
Conversation recorded on December 18th, 2025)
Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it’s barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what’s to come?
Today, Nate is joined by Balázs Matics, the author of the popular Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer, to explore the systemic reasons behind civilization’s potential collapse, the importance of energy security, and the growing effects of geopolitical instability. Balázs emphasizes the overlooked importance of industrial inputs such as diesel fuel, and the implications of this as more parts of the world face resource scarcities. Together, they also discuss the possibilities of more localized production and communities rooted in compassion and cooperation as ways to navigate a post-growth future.
As economic, geopolitical, and resource issues become more pressing, what will this mean for the future of environmental concerns such as global heating? What economic and industrial signals should governments actually be paying attention to in order to understand the health of a society? Finally, how can the humans paying attention to this story open up discourse where they live and start sowing the seeds of more resilient communities, even as the web of global complexity unravels?
About Balázs Matics:
Balázs Matics is the author of the Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer where he writes on the topics of energy, economics, industrial materials, and other matters relevant to the future of civilization. He is located in Eastern Europe, where he is an industrial product engineer by training and has two decades of experience in manufacturing, supply chain, and project management at various multinational corporations. Having been involved in a number of international projects and after completing a 2 year post-graduate leadership program in supply chain and logistics, he has developed a unique understanding of the interconnected nature of our world and technologies.
Clearly a guy who knows what he is talking about. The world revolves around logistics nowadays.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRrOaFaQ82U&t=4210s where they discuss “peak steel”
Thanks for the link to where the topic is discussed.
B. says he would like to talk more about the topic of peak steel (which is past) and peak copper (which is still a bit in the future). With peak steel, it is the peak of building things like ships, ships and tall building. Peak copper will be a big problem when it hits.
US says it has returned to Venezuela all $500 million of initial oil sale
“Venezuela has officially received all $500 million from the first Venezuelan oil sale,”
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2018873133336306067/photo/1
In the last posts I had commented on the legal status of VZ funds . Here is a link . Long read and serious stuff . Legal material and international law .
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/unpacking-the-trump-administration-s-plans-for-venezuela-s-oil-revenue
The Reuters article linked says:
Last week during testimony on Capitol Hill, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said U.S. involvement in the sale of Venezuelan oil was a short-term effort aimed at stabilizing the country, keeping the government afloat and helping the people.
“So in essence, we allowed Venezuela to use their own oil to generate revenue to pay teachers and firefighters and police officers and keep the function of government operating so we didn’t have systemic collapse,” he said.
So this was a do-good effort. If the oil had instead gone to China as repayment of an old debt, Venezuela would not have gotten any benefit from it.
Kevin Walmsly on VZ oil and China . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n7uPbEacyw
https://x.com/GaryBohm5/status/2018711293998301441
>> Brazil is a commodity superpower, a major exporter of oil, iron ore, metals, and agricultural products. By issuing debt in yuan, Brazil is creating a mechanism to bypass the dollar entirely in its trade with China, its largest trading partner. Brazil will earn yuan from its commodity exports to China, and then use those yuan to service its yuan-denominated debt. This creates a closed loop, a self-sustaining ecosystem for the yuan that completely excludes the dollar. This is the de-dollarization of key commodity markets in real time. Oil, food, and minerals are now being de facto priced and sold in yuan, instead of the dollar, which it has been for 50+ years. And here is the most important piece; every transaction that occurs in yuan is a transaction that does not occur in dollars, reducing the dollar’s global demand and its influence. It is truly a war of attrition against the dollar.
I don’t see a huge movement in the Yuan relative to the US $ recently. This is a Fred chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS
Exchange rate is not the same thing as internationalization of the currency. Also, could you check for one message of mine in moderation? Thx.
I think all hidden comments are out now.
The average size of oil discoveries is plummeting.
– 1970s avg: 150 mboe fields
– 2010s avg: 40 mboe
– A 70 % decrease .
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2018748133778321688/photo/1
The fiscal bomb is everywhere.
Kuwait needs foreign capital to raise output over the next decade.
This is Tainter in action: rising complexity, falling returns, and a global race to plug fiscal gaps.
https://archive.vn/XaHdR
Maybe someone else can make money getting oil out at these low prices:
Kuwait is opening up some of its oil fields to foreign investment and leasing part of its pipeline network, a significant move by the OPEC member as it looks to position itself as a key investment destination in the Middle East.
But we know that we have a huge amount of very heavy oil “resources” that we could in theory use, if we could figure out a more economic way of doing this. EROEI can change, with new technology. Perhaps energy from the sun, focused in the right way, could directly melt the heavy oil with very little use of other energy, for example. People have been working on finding a way, for a very long time.
A while back we heard David Betz talking about the US perhaps heading toward civil war. I am wondering if the Epstein Files focus the unhappiness in a different direction–against The Powers that Be, of whatever political party.
This is a recent Substack post touching on this issue, among others.
https://tsubion.substack.com/p/the-everything-rant
As the putrid filth continues to ooze out of the open sore that is The Epstein Files, I hope that people are beginning to pick up on the background rumblings that tie the sordid extracurricular activities of the global elite to the cult of transhumanism and the ongoing transformation of the economy and society at large. . .
Emails are even revealing discussions and planning to do with Operation Covid and the mass poisoning campaign that took place over the last five years. Bill Gates is, of course, under scrutiny yet again, as are all the other usual players and many more that have managed to stay under the radar but will now have to face the music. Resignations will not do. They must be prosecuted will the full force of the law. . .
. . . people will not just idly sit by and watch as their lives and futures are supplanted right before their eyes by a bunch of entitled, psychotic nerds that suffer from automation fever dreams. . .
May the good people of Earth rise up and claim that which is rightfully theirs, take control of this ship, before too much damage is done. . .
//////people will not just idly sit by and watch as their lives and futures are supplanted right before their eyes by a bunch of entitled, psychotic nerds that suffer from automation fever dreams.////// .
In Germany in the 1930s, that is precisely what people did, apart from the bit about automation.
and will do again—the human condition is predicated on ”anything for a quiet life”.
This is a different article by the same author:
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/02/03/epstein-western-decline-and-the-moral-collapse-of-the-elites/
The problem is that the modern West has forgotten how to react to anything that is vile and essentially evil. In Western societies, the people no longer know how to deal with absolute evil – especially when it is located at the top of society. Everything becomes procedure, everything becomes mediation, everything becomes technical language. Meanwhile, social trust evaporates.
This is no longer about left and right, liberalism and conservatism. It is about a rupture between people and elites. Between societies that still retain some sense of limits and a ruling class that operates as if it were outside the common human species.
If there is anything positive in this moment, it is the end of naivety. It is no longer possible to pretend that the system is “sick but recoverable.”
in 2015/16 i was writing about donnie’s intentions if he got power….
to much derision from certain OFW inmates at the time—
now this–
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-theatens-trevor-noah-grammys-bad-bunny-slams-ice_n_698071c1e4b0926bfc469acd/liveblog_6982c232e4b074c50785b210?origin=home-latest-news-unit
the ultimate driving force is of course greed, the intention is to loot the planet….the delusion being that money is tangible wealth….
it wont happen of course, but its going to be an unpleasant ride until the whole thing grinds to a halt….
People get triggered over all sorts of things. The emails that Gail mentions show that Trump was not in the discussions re: covid and vaccines. So Ok, Donnie is being mean to some folks, but how does that compare to 17M extra deaths organized by the loyal dems Gates and Epsteins?
lol drb
i would respond if i could figure out what you are blathering on about…
you are fast reaching the stage of being unworthy even of an eyeroll these days…
Read the lovemaking emails.
so epstiens shenanigans have been responsible for 17 million deaths
hmmm
dyou think he might have supplied the death rays that collapsed the twin towers as well drb??
It’s all the same system, and is generally energy driven. Everyone here knows it except you. your trump fantasies are too strong. I am sorry he was mean to some folks. bad donald.
drb
i fully respect your status as a fully paid up member of the donniecult, (maybe even a founder member)
—-but i’m losing track of the link between energy crisis—epstein—gates–and 17 million deaths—
no doubt you will clarify the above in due course….what the ”system” is—etc etc….
and i’m always wary of things ”everybody knows”.—–almost certainly they never do.
certainly me.
and once someone has been cultified, they never shake it off because its a kind of life-support system.
I left that game long ago Norm. I don’t live there. and even when I as living there I was not participating. I am sorry you can’t understand. what difference does it make to a russian, whether one demented or the other are in charge in the USA? It’s as if you were interested in who rules over some african country.
I call you on that to highlight the smallness of the western mind (thanks for providing ample material).
Pretty sure the BNS is gonna get blamed for killing more than 17M people.
Imagine that, Donald Trump has been living rent free
inside Norman Pagett’s head since 2015!
And to think that if only the Dem’s could have persuaded a few more dead people to vote their way, we could all be basking in the warm glow of the Kamala Harris presidency by now.
Well, you did your best Norman. You tried to warn us.
To be fair to the DA, there’s more than one way to steal an election.Trump can go on the Rogan show with a pristine ear in the home stretch to election day and have Rogan publicly endorse Trump because Rogan’s never been shot. Presto magico.
“The problem is that the modern West has forgotten how to react to anything that is vile and essentially evil.”
That is because the Modern West has embraced Luciferianism as its basic mythological outlook on reality.
The rejection of the Divine.
The insistence that the material is all that there is.
The worship of the intellect.
The slow turning of the living world into Luciferian Hellscape while thinking that you are doing good.
Doubling Down on technology to solve all problems.
The Modern West has come to believe that the government can save us. The world economy can always grow. We do not need God; God is irrelevant.
The world is bifurcating into rich and poor. The poor have a difficult time living by historical rules because they are being forced to do without essential things. The Epstein files indicate that the Rich have no moral compass at all. They assume that they are all powerful.
Gail, the rich are all powerful. The egalitarian world that Jesus spoke for, that some elements of the CCP hoped for, that some religions support will not come until there is a counter veiling power to the rich. Can the Christians of Russia be that new way? A nice thought but boy do they have many factors against them.
Survival of the best adapted seems to go to the rich, I am afraid. If a person is well-adapted, he or she is likely to do well in today’s world. Growing wage disparity and the fact the interest on debt payments seem to disproportionately benefit the already rich are problems.
The God of the Bourgeoisie turns what is immoral into morality. This idea harks back to when Jacob tricked his father, Isaac, to steal his brother Esau’s birthright. He also persuaded Esau to trade his claim to the land of Canaan for a simple bowl of stew. God is just a con for the rich.
I think God is real. God is behind the self-organizing systems.
Whether heaven or hell exist is another question. They are terribly convenient, from the point of the view of the powers that be.
One of the surprising aspects of the newly released Epstein files is his high level involvement with bitcoin early in the game (early 2010). It certainly raises the probability that the deep state + globalists were behind this whole operation. In fact it raises it to a near certainty.
Also of note, very secondary but depressing, the presence in those emails of at least one of the alt nutrition community thriving on youtube. Hoping to get dietary advice from Peter Attia is like hoping to get honest financial coverage from zerohedge. alt nutrition, of course, is one place where chews are way overrepresented. it is really a completely corrupt civilization.
[The e-coin] thing arose from the dungeons of alt right, libertarians, various anti-gov puritans, cyber futurists etc. This has been discussed in theoretical manner since 1970s..
Later the tech biz joined the ship (Thiel, Musk, ..) as the substrate – infrastructure was finally ready, i.e. the global internet network + wireless avail. in all major pop hubs globally, not only via PC, but powerful net connected mobile phones (as e-wallets / IDs ) primarily !
Jeffrey was evidently versed of possible (partial) collapse / reset scenarios around 2010 (likely way sooner). He joined the e-coin circus partly for himself but also in the wider scheme of the entire system under which he operated ( The House of Rothschild and ..) – so in terms of their wider biz clients etc.
The intermix of political, biz and personal is complex and puzzling, it took shape as multi tiered-levels, it seems that even the heiress Ariane de Roth. as mature woman had even some personal crush on him. That’s not a victim level more of a biz-partner or perhaps ~boss relationship on top of that. Compare contrast with that silly case of .no princess (also mother of ~adult kids) which for some reason had crush on him as well, counseling personal-family matters together..
Moreover, on another angle, the Greek duo mentioned, that it seems like he basically took over “the job” operation of Ghislaine Maxwell’s father, the 1960-90s failed media mogul and renown int spy network fixer. Gmax was evidently brain hunting people from dad’s address book as soon as ~2001, chiefly RU/ISR top science – intellectuals cadre etc.
Bob Maxwell (the father) was J-UKR/SK with CZE nationality joining UK WWII effort and later under newly acquired British nationality then in W-DE nationalized for himself several top tech literature media houses, then on that basis bought msm in the UK.
In the end lost some trades and had to embezzle few bln. from employee accounts, died on giant yacht “Lady Ghislaine” soon after family-sons execs fallen into severe bankruptcy.. The family largely disgraced as the kids attended top elite schools – immersed in that niveau etc.
Gmax ( of FR mother ) was evidently the brightest child though.
Hence becoming the key collaborating hand to Jeffrey..
Ghislaine is certainly devious and was more than likely Epstein’s boss, after daddies demise. Did you know Bloated Bob had a state funeral with full honours and everyone that’s anyone were in attendance. No need to guess where.
Yes, that state funeral must have been epic, the prestigious place and all the dignitaries.
Bob ( born as: “Jan Ludovic Hoch” ) meant he-family was most likely at least two generations saturated in that ~mixed Slavic area. So, he had to have fluent Slovak, Czech, German, Yiddish, and some Russian lang capabilities; later in adult hood he added English and French, perhaps more.
There seems none of such sophistication in Jeffrey. Well, perhaps not needed then by late global 1970s and into 80s..
The whole case is extra funny how everybody is pulling our leg. It’s like obfuscation and detour upon another in many layers..
There are now so many tangential leads on the web, e.g. like forensic studies, even morticians, or the doctors (hired supposedly by family) questioning the “suicide” 5-6yrs ago already.
But more to your point, the scenario of him being merely a conduit / facade shop for certain broader operation is very high indeed. The bottom line he was apparently IQ-wise several steps bellow someone like Gmax or that lady in command at Roth. HQ in Paris.
And or perhaps, he was seemingly ~nobody but with the gift of excellent good nose (luck) for trades, which is not so unusual, as theoretic-university type of economists are more than often worthless in the real fin world jungle..
Out of many, lets’ pickup that forensic guy “Dr. G.” on ytube – he made recently nice vid on the island compound.
Summary of the interiors: *cold-impersonal, compartmentalized, .. , +commentariat mentioned rooms situated and equipped for NOT obstructed, i.e. dedicated filming purposes.
The whole island compound looks way different from other billionaire set ups, ~cheep, focused chiefly on control – containment, ..
Hence another +points in the scenario of primarily intel operation aka the biz-fin angle way separate (above Jeffrey’ s level).
–
* the kitchen is really like granite ~morgue, you can’t seriously even argues it’s perhaps meant as antidote to summer heat.. so it fits the overall tortura argument and or as per email bellow his metabolic detachment from food-joy, he finds none pleasure in it.. vs most of us..
plus in the record they discuss bleach and its variants for the best DNA destruction / cleaning purposes..
Strange situation!
If Ghillie is Epstein’s boss and Epstein is alive and well then why is Ghillie in prison?
Jeffrey was known among friends as not eating that much type of person..
On the nutrition – angle, he apparently had some medical condition, ~digestive / more like metabolic. If there are some products mentioned at least partly in non-biz strictly kind of way, you could bet they are good-working stuff nevertheless..
Let’s not discuss the (un-) related blood consumption / ordering angle. Perhaps it’s connected or not. Bizarre people, bizarre habits, hence attempted vampirism can’t be discounted after-all.
Hm, seems confirmed – had pancreatic condition – that insufficiency could be alleviated also by blood consumption. We probably never get the details, although it’s even possible that donors “production” quality was boosted up by providing them sensory input of tasty fresh food around so their pancreas immediately started releasing the various important hormones while the blood soak started in time coordinated fashion..
Globalization is good thing, as far as civilization is concerned, since it makes resources from regions which are unlikely to contribute anything to civilization to those who are more likely to do so.
End of globalization means all the wealth and resources will be wasted on locals who are extremely unlikely to advance civilization.
There was an African king called Mansa Musa. He owned a big gold mine, which made his kingdom wealthy. However, Mansa Musa, being a West African, and the average IQ of Western Africans are around 66-70, he failed to accomplish anything with his wealth.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-average-IQ-of-people-from-West-Africa
In a utilitarian way, the exploitation of resources from the third world, which used to be called colonies, is for the greater good. The end of it, also called the End of Globalization, means a huge regression of civilization.
I don’t think globalization has ended, rather the prior resource sink (USA) has been replaced by China.
In this definition of resource sink, you are talking about which countries are providing the primary demand for using resources. A different version of resource sink I found online is
A resource sink is an environmental component, like the atmosphere or oceans, that absorbs and processes waste materials generated by human activities. It has a limited capacity to handle waste without causing ecological damage.
China and the US are both struggling with ecological damage, with China perhaps struggling more than the US. But when it comes to materials usage, China has been ahead of the US since 2009. This is a dynamic that I should perhaps have pointed out in my post. The US lost leadership in resource use a long time ago.
Over generations, people in local areas can adapt to local conditions and, because of this, do better than your simple analysis would suggest. Food choices and preparation can change; customs and religions that incorporate these customs can change. The result doesn’t need to be uniformly worse.
Kulm, you write about IQ when the Asian trio of China-Japan-S. Korea easily beats any Euro country on that metric. And just in the last few years China has collected a number of technological successes against Europe’s zilch. A clear example is the supercritical CO2 steam engine, which IIRC was first proposed at CERN about 10 years ago but now is working in China. It’s even worse when you watch the USA struggle to compete militarily with a country that spends 1/20 on defense compared to the USA. You see, in the SA all these MBAs running large defense companies can not come up with an idea on how to make hypersonics.
China has led the world for about 60% of its civilization existence. India led the world about as long as the Europeans, as did various Middle Easterm empires. We are regressing to the norm and you are not only old, but also blind to the remarkable successes of others.
Hello! Long time no see, theres a typo you missed,
Roads
Bridges
Pipelines
Commercial buildings
Factories
Pipelines
Electricity .
There are two pipelines. Thanks for the work as always!
Thanks!
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Hate to do these occasional cross postings (referrals) among the top forums, but only for serious quality stuff. Here again another installment in continuous key debate on the [degrowth profile] at Surplus, Tom’s and DaveInMyrs comments:
Degrowth profile harsh from the get go.. ( already eating-out working the periphery of the core states ).
vs.
Degrowth phasing in for a while ( masked / stalled ) by discretionary non-essentials elimination ( vs. available essentials ) the hard impact thus ~possibly delayed for few decades.
details:
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/01/30/318-the-surplus-energy-economy-part-one/#comment-49747
This is a very fine comment, written under the name “Tom.” In part, it says:
There are discussions here that suggest that degrowth is similar to a menu choice at a local eatery. If degrowth was a choice we would have had to formed a governing consensus around it many years ago in order to enact the policies, system changes, incentives, educational and value based institutions, changes to more closed loop industrial processes, recycling, energy conservation, etc, etc that would be required for such a colossal undertaking. It is far too late in this world for that to be an outcome.
Degrowth will be forced upon us and sooner than some imagine. As our civilization has not discussed and formulated a list, nor have any kind of consensus on what the social priorities should be as we enter degrowth, it will be chaotic, fighting for the table scraps. Trade and resource wars which will only serve to accelerate the decline of productive output.
Some readers of this forum do not understand how our economic system will express itself in degrowth. Perhaps that is because of the economic bubble in which many of the privileged members of western civilization live, particularly in the US. A place were 5% of the worlds population has been consuming 25% of the worlds energy and material resources. And for those living in bubbles within that society, there is little lived experience.
Our economic system can express itself in degrowth just fine. If you want to see it, get in your car and drive 50 miles from your city or suburb into the nearest rural, non-recreational town. Here is how degrowth is expressed. The mill went bankrupt, unemployment spiked, the downtown shuddered its storefronts, real estate values collapsed, homes fell into disrepair, substance abuse spiked, young folks left searching for employment, social services declined, old folks make a choice between eating and heating their homes. Eventually a new and lower equilibrium is established. Degrowth. I live in rural Maine and see this writ large.
“Tom” seems to have it figured out. Rural Maine is a good spot to be.
I think we are in a unsolvable delema. The primary problem is simply that there is too many of US & our numbers continue to GROW. So far, governments have refused to recognise this, they keep pushing for more GROWTH & that is what MUST STOP.
RELIGION is the primary cause of our irrational push for endless growth.
Reality doesn’t care what you believe, if you refuse to accept what is REAL, it will hit back hard.
I see no acceptance of this reality, we will keep trying to force more growth even as hunger & protests grows. I see a future of more migration, more wars for resources, more border walls, more deportations of unwanted migrants, growing hunger, disease & repression.
We won’t change until we are FORCED to change.
Well, this could be however answered from way different angle as well.
Notably, that the J_ISR – Lutheran – RCC nexus has joined pro-actively the depop agenda, while the sane humanist religions say from the Calvinist branch are genuinely pro-life..
Can’t comment w. some degree of authority on the Asian situation, although most of the vector would be valid or at least rhyme there as well.
“Noting this means that no way exists to transform today’s set of living arrangements for most of Western civilization into something workable for the long term. All efforts to make today’s way of living “sustainable” is truly illusory because the entire system still rests upon the foundation of technology use. In other words, unless and until humans realize that our behavior of using technology is the root of our unsustainability, no true progress can be made.”?
https://problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com/2024/03/whats-hyperobject-and-why-cant-we.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
nothing to do with technology
all to do with cheap surplus energy
Surplus energy is a cultural technology. Religion is a cultural technology. Money is a cultural technology.
Techne means technique.
Technology in this context means a systems theory of a cultural technique.
Welcome to the Consent Factory that runs in terror from the Dunbar Number.
/////Surplus energy is a cultural technology. Religion is a cultural technology. Money is a cultural technology.//////
no….
money is tokenised energy….
if you live in an environment where your energy supply is just enough to keep you alive, money doesnt mean much because you are unlikley to have any….
if you have access to/control of surplus energy, then you have a lot of money, and you are wealthy.
that’s not opinion—it’s information which is readily available…
(religion is collective hysteria btw)
Linguistics Norm. In cultural anthropology all cultural circumventions of Dunbar’s Number are referred to as cultural technologies.
wrap it in whatever wordparcels you like—-doesnt change the basic fact that money is tokenised energy….
whatever level of technology you are at, it is underpinned by a corressponding input of energy…..
Norm maybe next time you can reply, oh I see now what you are saying that the article postkey linked to is saying.
You’re welcome.
you are quite correct sheila….
unfortunately the entire economic system of the world is predicated on infinite growth….we all expect a payrise every year, or pension support in my case, and speaking for myself, i live very well on it.,,,
i’ve been lucky, millions haven’t, and per your comment i’m under no illusions as to where my income derives…..the delusion of infinite growth, which is a form of collective insanity…. (and collective debt of course)
so…
knowing what i know, will i give it up?—-no, i can’t, because to do so would be tantamount to committing suicide…quite literally.
and exactly the same applies to governments….—this is why donnie and his chums are grabbing what they can, and to hell with we proles, because they know what the future is going to be….as with all ponzi schemes, collapse is certain…
we’ve been building to this point for 300 years, always producing more this year than last year…..effectively rendering the planet itself into a cash asset by burning fuels.—-the jesusfreaks think this is god’s will—-it isn’t, the planet itself will put an end to this madness
Humans, because of their eating of cooked food, are able to outcompete other species. This is the reason why population has grown. With cooked food, brains became more adept, at the same time jaws and digestive apparatus became smaller.
Religions simply codified what was, in fact, happening. Religions change as the world economy changes. Governments and their programs are now supposed to save us from all perils of the world. We don’t need God. Of course, it is difficult that pensions will pay back well in a finite world.
There seem to be some religions now that are “pushing” large families. Ultra-Orthodox Jews, for example. Amish. Many Moslem groups. Sub-Saharan African religions/culture.
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2026/02/el-ocaso-del-shale-oil-usa-precede-el.html?m=1
Some good graphs on where oil is heading.
This is a post by Quark that is titled, “The decline of shale oil in the USA precedes the beginning of the twilight of civilization.” It does have quite a few charts, including two by Jean Laherrere (age 94!). For US crude oil production and shale oil production they go straight up and then (in a mirror image) straight down again.
Quark also quotes a long section from “Turning Point: Short-term systemic implications of a peak in global oil production ” written by David Korowicz in 2010.
I would argue that simply a peak in middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) would tend to cause the problems described. Adding lots of light stuff doesn’t really change the situation. They mostly hide the problem from the public. Argentina is now adding production from shale. I am certain that it will be light, also.
The @iea believes that decline rates in existing oilfields globally are accelerating. This is the setup for the next oil super cycle.
https://x.com/SheDrills/status/2018941276003958863
The oil supply-demand model is broken:
– Conventional discoveries are down 60% since 2010
– Down ~90% since 1960
– 80% of producing fields are past their peak
In other words, we are squeezing more and more out of existing fields.
At the same time, global decline rates are surging:
– Decline rates have doubled since 2000
– A total of ~6 mbpd
That is the equivalent of losing the entire output of the 4th-largest oil producer every year.
At some point, we will not have enough oil to meet future demand without new fields.
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2019079597577441718/photo/1
The biggest silver crash in 44 years just happened—35% crash in 24 hours.
Silver plunged from $120 to $78 on Friday, wiping out trillions in market value.
Mainstream media blames the new Fed chair nomination, but the real story runs deeper.
Here are the 3 events that happened which caused this:
1) JP Morgan closed their short position at the exact market bottom.
2) The London Metal Exchange went offline.
3) HSBC’s systems crashed.
I understood that the margin required to buy silver was raised on Friday, at least at one location, probably JP Morgan. The purpose of the higher margin was to squeeze the market to get the price of silver down. It worked!
as I say, completely criminal.
And if the stock market had tanked like the PMs did, the CME circuit breakers would have fully engaged to stop the carnage. The elites, their government politician puppets, and the bankers do not want us plebs to be self-sufficient or independent of the food, money and energy systems.
Wasn’t it just few days / weeks ago as yet another dungeon-creepy Nigerian metals mine collapsing (dozens dead), they showed some lucked out survivor with a bit of raw ore carried out in handkerchief rug – likely not much money at all when finally processed.
I don’t understand the essential lure of this “storage of wealth” metal thing, it’s beyond atavistic and barbarous, it’s silly.. , even dogs and other animals hiding bones under the ground seem wiser..
Yes, it supposedly performed /here and there/ for human’s locked in (compressed) under societal pressures at historical milestones – but in reality just a tiny fraction of pre-existing life on this planet.
PS Jeffrey evidently upped stockpiles since 2011.. ( anticipating CHN $peg drop scenario ) yet – well if the prison story is legit – he ended up tearing up his cell bed sheets for the edgy line portion from which longer piece of rope to strangle himself was prepared..
Ag was about $28 jan 1 2025
Still up 200%
“This is the opposite of what should happen when an asset is genuinely overvalued. When a bubble bursts, holders rush to exit, and physical markets trade at discounts to paper as metal floods the market seeking bids. The widening of physical premiums during a paper crash is the signature of something else entirely. It is the signature of a market that has fractured into two separate pricing regimes that no longer communicate with each other. The paper market and the physical market have divorced, and the implications of that divorce will define precious metals investing for the next decade. . . .
The January crash did not end the silver bull market. It confirmed the thesis that makes the bull market inevitable. What follows is the institutional playbook for what comes next.
By Shanaka Anslem Perera“?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-186507921
Greetings friends, perhaps right now the focus is on the financial crisis, since the USA stalled its drive for war. People in RU think the war will end within a few months now, with Odessa taken. The Ukraine war is out of the news in the west but it is continuing at a lively clip. The economy is seemingly humming along but I noted a few signs of distress. The Duma is considering legalizing online gambling for example. and of course Putin wants to make deals. we will see.
Likewise Trump seems to do things like trade deals with India, and think that it matters. all Titanic furniture. Now he is going to stockpile metals, sounds like he will have to print a lot.
One of the central tenets of a financial crisis is that someone is going to get a hair cut. Cyprus style, circa 2013. And of course in the USA everyone is getting their hair cut by inflation, but the silver spectacle of the last few days has to be mentioned. Tens of thousands of gold bugs in the West conscientiously stacked for years, and when the moment came, websites were down and dealers offered prices well below the american spot (itself well below the Shanghai spot). It is not possible to rig the game more than it is rigged now, and it is completely criminal. That is what happens when you still want to play the western game while maintaining some of the illusions we grew up with (the markets, price discovery, etc).
Has Odessa been taken? It seems just a matter of time but it doesn’t appear to have happened yet. I get a lot of information on the SMO from Moon of Alabama and they would make a big deal about it if it had happened.
Thanks
Not Yet .
The RF crossed the river but it is a long way to Odessa. Also let me mention that I do not think it will last a few more months, more like a year plus imho.
We’re at the part of the Ponzi scheme where the guy running it starts sweating.
The US has $38 trillion in debt. It grows by $6 billion per day—not per year, per day. The US added $1 trillion in debt in just 71 days last year.
Here’s the problem: The US paid $1.2 trillion in interest on that debt in 2025. That’s more than defense spending.
So how do you fix it?
1) Raise taxes? The wealthy leave (see: Britain)
2) Cut spending? Political suicide
3) Default? Game over
There’s only one path:
Print Money.
Devalue the debt by making dollars worth less.
Ray Dalio: “If you devalue money, you devalue debt.”
Translation: Your savings, salary, and retirement get quietly confiscated to pay for government debt.
The S&P was up 18% last year. Against gold? Down 28%. That 46% gap is the real inflation rate they’re not telling you.
Currency devaluation isn’t coming—it’s official policy.
https://x.com/felixprehn/status/2018625634885624035
It seems to me that differentials have to start changing a lot in the devaluation.
The prices of homes and real estate can’t rise as much as those of commodities. Perhaps this happens in more areas than others. The population of Blue states seems to be falling, relative to Red stated.
The stock market situation is more confusing. On one hand, the stock market will be headed down, if AI is collapsing. On the other hand, 401K contributions that keep pumping into the stock market help keep the stock market up. It seems like eventually the worth of stock market holdings needs to fall also. Of course, added debt, if it is at a low enough interest rate, helps keep the stock market up.
People have to pile into the stock market because they see holding cash as a lost opportunity
You are right. People who live in current times believe that the stock market always goes up. History shows this is not true. See the chart at this link:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
There was an amazing drop between 1929 and 1932. Perhaps 80%! The stock market didn’t get back to the 1929 level until 1953.
Then there was the period between 1966 and 1982. The stock mark didn’t rise at all in this 16 year period. The period from June 1999 to March 2010 was another period when the stock market didn’t rise.
It looks to me as though both rising interest rates (1966 to 1982) and rising oil prices (1999 to 2010) can have a dampening effect on stock market rises. Pumping lots of money into 401k’s, lots of stock buybacks by companies, and lots of indirect demand from ETFs seem to make the system go to the moon.
Paper gold and silver are not the same as the real things, I am afraid. And the total quantity available makes a whole lot of difference.
Besides wiping out a lot of gold bugs, whose sole fault is naivete, these shenanigans had the effect of moving a whole lot of metal from NY to Shanghai (of course big players only), who arbitraged their way to a nice profit. Not that I am a believer in data centers, but now add silver to the metals that are effectively controlled by China. How are they going to build those DC without sufficient silver?
“now add silver to the metals that are effectively controlled by China. ”
Interesting point!
So let’s see China will own all the silver to build data centres if precious metals go up e ven more say silver at 2000 dollars an ounce then china will hold all the cards . Then we are beholden to China forever.
China holds all the cards at the moment and this is why we are seeing the various events that are going on.
Silver is now one of the critical elements in production and the US are attempting to take control of supply. If you look at who(where) the greater bulk comes from, it’s a tough one for China.
https://silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
After Iran, I’m going for Cuba as a starter, then the main course of Mexico, which hands on a plate, most of the mid size producers for afters.
That could then become control of around 75% of worldwide silver production.
Add silver to the oil games and it’s potentially devastating. It’s a good move, but leaves a lot to do in quick succession and if Iran doesn’t go to plan this weekend(?), they’ve lost the oil game(probably every base in Iraq as well).
Silver demand has been far greater than supply in recent years. It is no wonder that the price is rising. But the amount coming out of mines is, at best, a plateau for now, but that plateau is far below what is needed.
The demand will only get worse, unless we simplify and that’s one thing that has very little demand.
The oil game looks dicey, so silver and possibly copper seem the next best cards for leverage, as the funny money game appears lost. Do the west have anything else(apart from piracy)?
I imagine a deal has been reached between the United States, China, and Russia.
The United States will take Venezuela, Russia will take the four annexed Ukrainian provinces and the DMZ, and China will take Taiwan.
Venezuela’s oil will also be exported to China, and China will export rare earths to the United States. (Oil production is likely to increase if the United States develops it.)
I think the remarks about Greenland’s sovereignty were an attempt to pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire.
The Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, which can even target stealth targets, deployed in Venezuela was gazing at the starry sky without doing anything. After the Venezuelan president was arrested without resistance, the vice president’s willingness to cooperate with the United States may be because he realized that his backing had disappeared.
I feel like there are no seats left for anyone other than these three countries. (The remaining countries are competing for a seat on his lap.)
The western account of the VZ situation has been lately updated / corroborated in the following detail:
The US commando stormed the presidential compound, while
the internal comm was already cut off. The VZ govs was offered a surrender deal basically (no further destruction), which could not have been turned down.
The factor of pre-paid faction within the VZ govs is still unclear, but given the precision of the strike, someone evidently changed sides (talked) ..
–
As to why that AA S-300 did nothing is still open to a debate.
Some cite info about US sat identify them as deposited in storage – not deployed at all. Could have been also switched off as part of the pre-deal.. or not properly maintained.. Btw. VZ airforce also remained on the ground.. so that’s likely the key info to take into account.
It could have been also actively suppressed – jammed by the attacker – it’s an older export version – most likely to some degree already debugged by the US intel .. from other war theaters (ME?)..
>> I imagine a deal has been reached between the United States, China, and Russia.
I don’t think the other parties are not stupid enough to “do a deal”. They know the US is agreement-incapable. Any agreement will be broken at the first advantageous time. All this schizophrenic TACO stuff is because failure and retreat is being FORCED on the US, not because we’ve decided to play nice all of a sudden.
”4:12 those are the instructions that he’s given to the Israelis too and he that’s come from the head of Centcom who say
4:19 that you know he wants it to be short no entanglements no prolongation
4:25 just a quick attack.”?
Population growth is not uniform. There is growth especially in Africa. Fertility rates are declining in the West and Asia.
However, Africa consumes much less energy per capita than the USA or Europe. Four billion Asians have also increased their consumption.
Taking this into account, the
Energy per capita can be misleading.
There is another aspect to add: while the Western countries are shrinking and their GDP is declining and their government ratio and public debt are increasing, Asia is growing very fast and can therefore pay high prices.
From this point of view, a distribution problem could also affect the delivery difficulties.
I expect that as the world economy starts to deglobalize, population growth rates in different areas of the world will make a big difference for those particular areas.
Population growth rates have already turned to shrinkage in Japan and China. Places with a lot of immigrants have tended to keep population up, regardless of their birth rates. In the US, population growth rates have turned to shrinkage in a lot of Blue states, I understand.
With shrinking population, it becomes impossible to provide adequate tax revenue to pay for all of the services needed by the elderly.
I expect that population growth rates may change quite dramatically in the next thirty years.
A dozem hydrogen bombs and Asia is no longer consuming.
Not saying you don’t have a point here BUT..
The situation of delays and pretend-extend superiority evolved into such over-complexity and over-dependency on imports.
So, that even if they suddenly drop the big one –
” ..the very next day carried away.. ” tune would mean they could no longer replace even a silly hi-way sign steel pillar..
“I’ve done some refinements…
Oversupply isn’t an oil glut
Most of the downside Is already behind us
The most-likely case for Brent is $65 in July and $70 in December
The upside case is $79 in December
This is pretty conservative IMO “—- Art Berman
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2016725890957283817/photo/1
“My take on the OIL GLUT
The most likely scenario is that a glut continues to exist ON PAPER.
Inventories increase but don’t balloon. Geopolitics keeps risk on enough to mostly balance the surplus on a monthly avg basis.
Brent rises ~$2/month from $67 in January to $72 in June & ends 2026 at $82.
A “real glut” and “glut evaporates” scenarios are equally unlikely each at about 25% probability ” — Art Berman
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2016560530668892607/photo/1
Guy’s update on peak oil. Sounds a little like the “Mud Hut” days.
https://guymcpherson.substack.com/p/additional-evidence-earth-is-beyond?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1645569&post_id=180703984&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=ism6c&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Guy’s update seems to mostly quote a September IEA report. It is talking about oil supply being constrained. There is a need for continued investment to keep output up.
Guy concludes:
As I have indicated repeatedly at guymcpherson dot com, oil is the master material. Without oil, we cannot extract other fossil fuels. We cannot transport materials crucial to our survival and comfort. Without oil, this set of living arrangements disappears. Due to the rapid rate of environmental change in our wake, life on Earth ceases to exist. Even if you’re not a fan of civilization, you’re probably a fan of life … even if it’s only your own.
If people are no longer interested in climate catastrophe posts, perhaps peak oil will be of more interest.
U.S. tight oil production peaked in September 2025
It is expected keep falling slowly in 2026 .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2019099573826765215/photo/1
Permian growth is over .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2019021940946837610/photo/1
Maybe. In winter, production sometimes shrinks. I downloaded the file from the EIA link that supposedly shows production by play (really modeled production). Its latest month is December 2025. It is not down. But it may not be right, either.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig42.png
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Big-Freeze-Disrupts-US-Oil-and-Gas-Production.html
The average monthly impact of the big freeze for the whole month of January could be about 390,000 bpd, mostly due to disruptions in the Permian, independent consultants Rystad Energy said on Tuesday.
The EIA is showing production the same in December as September for the Permian. Perhaps a plateau?
Reality hits Saudi Arabia .
“Saudi Arabia’s Pullback Spreads, From Neom to World Cup Stadiums ”
https://archive.vn/j7vjV#selection-1217.0-1217.64
“Saudi Arabia Looks to Tap Wealthy Families in New Quest for Cash ” Extortion is back . Broke .
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-27/saudi-arabia-looks-to-tap-wealthy-families-in-new-quest-for-cash?sref=5dj0X2VO&embedded-checkout=true
The cumulative loss on all the sporting events alone must be an eye-watering figure.
They built this new extravagant golf course by Detroit for their Saudi Championship. And the tickets were like 80 bucks for three day pass.
A girl I work with went to the Players championship last year in Florida. Said it was 500 just for two day weekend pass. (for context)
Saudi Arabia needs much higher oil prices than those currently available to support this kind of development. No wonder they need to cut back their investment, and try to get funds from wealthy individuals.
VZ is nothing burger .
“Arbitration awards and debts owed to IOCs and oil services companies total more than $20 billion — debts that may stop them returning without an acceptable resolution. ”
https://www.energyintel.com/0000019c-1f93-de29-a7ff-1fbbd0750000
One thing that this article brings up is the fact that if Venezuela extraction is to be greatly increased, total investment in oil extraction by international oil companies will have to increase, or the funds will have to be taken from currently planned investment in today’s fields. This seems to cap investment at a lower level.
From the article:
Experts put Venezuela’s outstanding external debts at more than $150 billion, roughly twice the size of its damaged economy. . .
The massive debt overhang is important for any new oil-related investments. Would-be investors not only want to recoup past debts in some cases but also want to ensure they aren’t stiffed again if they return to Venezuela’s weakened upstream, hollowed out by mismanagement and decay over the past 25 years. Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy reckons Venezuela would need $183 billion of investment between now and 2040 to restore crude oil production to the early 2000s’ highs of around 3 million barrels per day. Energy Intelligence estimates Venezuelan oil output in 2025 averaged 840,000 b/d. . .
. . .but US President Donald Trump quickly shut down any notion that creditors would be fully paid back.
“We’re going to start with an even plate. … We’re not going to look at what people lost in the past,” Trump said at the meeting, adding that the $12 billion owed to ConocoPhillips would make a “good write-off.” . . .
One former IOC executive said it was “highly unlikely” that companies with substantial debt exposure that exited Venezuela would take the plunge again without financial and security guarantees — provisions the US administration has rejected so far. “They have moved on, shifted investments to other areas over the past 15-20 years. They are focused on capital discipline and would need to shift investments from other plays to Venezuela because investors won’t tolerate big increases to overall capex,” he says.
The Yen story .
Key levels to watch:
– US 10-year above 4.5%: Warning
– US 30-year above 5%: Danger
– Dollar-yen exchange rate destabilizing: Crisis
https://x.com/felixprehn/status/2018385682557993299
Read this in conjugation with the above post .
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/01/31/us-government-sold-766-billion-of-treasuries-this-week-yield-curve-steepened-as-30-year-treasury-yield-rose-to-4-87/
Great article. I’ve been thinking about just everything that has happened in the last two weeks. With AI looking DOA, what else is there to save the economy? No one in the west manufacturers, or now build. All countries have housing and commercial property problems so deep that its looking to take down the banks. We here, could add at least 10 more really challenging concerns.
With AI sinking everything, is there any reason what so over to believe that anything better is about to happen? I’ve noticed we just got 3 to 5 million documents suddenly with no explanation. Why? Why now?
Well, with that carry trade having the fuse lit, now war must happen, because something simply needs to go boom before everyone starves…. for cover.
Oh, and by the way, the USA is sending Astronauts on a voyage passed the moon this Saturday…. and no one cares. Why is there no fanfare on this? It’s pretty evident to me that no one wants it. That makes Friday a good candidate for hell to break loose.
We don’t know when the launch will take place.
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-launch-to-march-after-encountering-issues-during-fueling-test
Lots of issues were found in a “wet dress rehearsal.” The launch has been pushed back at least until March.
We do need some excitement over something, I agree, but I don’t think we have the materials for international war.
Maybe we can spend our time looking at the Epstein documents. Or maybe China will implode — but that would leave us worse off, not better off.
Are there any instruments for “upcoming” [JPN 5-7-10yrs] spike?
Preferably like leveraged ETFs; the pros play it by different instruments not available to us retail ants. Just asking for a friend..
Japanese investors—including banks, insurance companies, and pension funds—have been propping up the US stock and bond markets for decades, and it’s been profitable for both sides.
And apart from the interest that could be earned by borrowing in yen at 0% and investing in dollars at 4 or 5%, the investors have also earned quite a bit on the exchange rate. A lot of these investments were made when the yen was trading at less than 100 to the dollar, and now it’s more than 150.
But we all know that nothing lasts forever. Bills have got to be paid. If current income isn’t enough to cover current expenditure, drawing out some of one’s savings is a potential solution that doesn’t add to one’s debt.
I clearly remember in the late 1980s and early 90s when Walkman-style cassette players were beginning to go out of fashion and the yen was soaring in the wake of the Plaza Accord, Western financiers were courting Japanese corporations and inviting them to borrow dollars, pounds, francs, and marks (this was before the euro was launched in 1999), on the assumption that as the yen was bound to rise, they would be able to repay the loans plus interest with less yen than they received when initially taking the loans out. This worked out well for all concerned as the yen climbed steadily to 85 in 1995, but things went south in the late 90s when the yen collapsed to about 130.
Then we had the bursting of the dot com bubble and the millennium bug, and still the world didn’t end.
I see the US 10-year is at 4.28%. It has been creeping up recently.
I believe that rising interest rates, even without the Yen issue, tend to slow economic growth and push the stock market down. The period between 1981 and 2022 was one of mostly falling interest rates. This has given the impression that stock market prices can rise indefinitely.
Lei has also made several videos over the past year or two on the subject of China’s population. She thinks it’s a lot lower than advertised. To sum up, while it’s officially about 1.4 billion, Lei worked out from various statistics and estimates and analyses that it was only about 800 million in 2020, when COVID-19 started up. Moreover, she thinks that around half of the population may have died between 2020 and 2025, leaving only about 400 million left today. I know, this seems too shocking to take seriously. But actually, with China, we just don’t know. After listening to three of her videos on this subject, I can see how her estimates might be correct.
“What is China’s real population? Decades of inflated census data, the one-child policy, and hidden COVID deaths have made China’s population unknowable. Using math, fertility rates, on-the-ground evidence, and official contradictions, this program explains why the truth is forbidden—and why the human cost may be far greater than acknowledged.”
“Lei worked out from various statistics and estimates and analyses that China’s population was only about 800 million in 2020, when COVID-19 started up. Moreover, she thinks that around half of the population may have died between 2020 and 2025, leaving only about 400 million today.”
HALF that massive population gone, in 5 or 6 years?! Do you think I was born yesterday, Tim? And don’t tell me that COVID killed them. We both know that COVID was only lethal for the extremely elderly and the extremely obese – and for those who already had significant health problems.
Suppose the thesis correct; That the Chinese population is grossly overstated. Then, the per capita productivity, wealth, energy consumption, and precious metal holdings are increased by corresponding amount.
Thus what appears prima-facie to be a critique is from another perspective is the exact opposite.
From this inference alone, one can asses the biased intent of the messenger. Indeed, I initially watched several of her videos, but the above consideration was the linch pin for me to entirely discount her messaging.
As I believe I implied elsewhere in these comments, everyone who comments on politics is biased. I am surprised this even needs to be stated. Is the intellectual level of OFW commentariat high enough to recognize this? Do we really need to point out that so and so is biased? Shall we do this every time someone’s opinion is brought up, or only people we disagree with?
Incidentally, the only person at, in or on this forum who is not biased is Gail. After all, she’s the teacher! As for the big world out there, bias is universal.
Suppose the thesis correct; That the Chinese population is grossly overstated. Then, the per capita productivity, wealth, energy consumption, and precious metal holdings are increased by corresponding amount.
Thus what appears prima-facie to be a critique is from another perspective is the exact opposite.
That would depend on whether the official figures for Chinese productivity, wealth, energy consumption, and precious metal holdings are accurate, surely?
If one assumes that all Chinese official figures for everything are accurate, and not grossly over- or understated, then I believe you are definitely onto a winner there.
Incidentally, new topic!
While we are on the subject of official figures, let’s consider the following:
Officially, Chinese GDP per capita is the equivalent of roughly $13,806.
By comparison, officially, U.S. GDP per capita (nominal) was approximately $86,000.
Accordingly, US GDP per capita is a little over six times Chinese GDP per capita.
Does this mean that Americans work six times harder than Chinese, or that Americans work six times smarter than Chinese?
Of course not. Comparing GDP figures between different countries requires the exercise of considerable caution. It’s essential to consider the broader context, including cost of living, PPP, economic structure, and data quality, before one can begin to make meaningful comparisons.
Having said that, IF China’s population was only two thirds of the official size and GDP was the same, then GDP per capita would still be a very modest $20,000, and IF the population was only one third of the official size, the GDP per capita would work out to about $40,000—still less than half of the US level.
Moreover, the US population includes a lot of dirt poor people, and a lot of people who are barely getting by, or not getting by at all. Indeed, from what I’ve seen of life in China’s cities, the average Joe or Jill in China is doing far better physically, mentally, emotionally, and economically than the average Joe or Jill in the US. But that’s just my bias.
Yes, on your concluding part, moreover, that could be “the final clincher” in latter degrowth-collapse phases when impoverished US/EU public suddenly (decades delay!) notices those sun bathing “workers” of CHN/RU..
Obviously, the msm/corp/govs syndicate would work 24/7 to obfuscate, derail such event for as long as possible. Actually, to the very point it won’t matter much at all.. , i.e. disorderly collapse sequence then already in motion due to other unrelated parallel processes..
That would neatly explain why eleectricity in China is six times cheaper.
If you were born yesterday, Demi, then first and foremost I hope you had a very happy birthday!
Incredulity is not an argument though, is it? I mean, incredible things do happen. And incredible scams go on decade after decade. Once a government starts lying with statistics, they are impelled to add more lies in order to keep the original lies covered up, so official stories diverge from reality more and more as time goes by.
I agree with you that IF, and only IF, half of China’s population disappeared in five or six years, it WOULDN’T have been COVID that killed them. I say this because COVID—IF it exists—ISN’T that deadly. IF a novel virus could kill half of China’s population, it WOULD have killed major swaths of populations all over the world. Social distancing, masking, hand-washing, and perspex dividing the tables at the local MacDonald’s WOULD not have stopped it.
I am quite willing to accept that China’s population is only around 800 million based on the facts that (1), it was less than that when the CCP got into power, and (2) the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution and the One-Child Policy would have restrained the population growth to such an extent that there is no way that China could still have a greater population than India, which had a comparable population in the late 1940s and has recorded much higher official birth rates for the past 80 years than China has.
I am not quite willing to accept that China has lost half of its population in the past five or six years because (1), it’s incredible—although quite frankly I find everything about China incredible, and (2) I don’t believe everything I am told—although to tell the absolute God’s honest truth, I’ve never heard anything that I didn’t half-believe. 🙂
But I find the possibility that China’s death count over the past five years is a lot more than advertised intriguing to say the least. When I heard this claim, the needle on my bovine excrement meter went up past Max and broke the dial. My first thought was, this should be easy to debunk. But my second thought was, “How can it be debunked? Surely not by quoting official Chinese government figures. They are Joke.”
People who live in the West have no idea of how bad the pollution has been in China for the past quarter century. Here in Japan, we are downwind of China, and in the first half of the year, and particularly from February to April, a lot of our air comes from China.
There has always been the seasonal yellow sand phenomenon from the Gobi Desert, but since the early years of this century, the PM2.5 particulate pollution from “the World’s Factory” has been increasing in Western Japan. From the decade around 2010 to 2020, this was particularly horrible, creating levels of smog that limited visibility, triggered allergies, blighted plants, and prevented people from feeling the heat of the sun or from seeing a blue sky, even on cloudless days.
That’s in Western Japan. In Eastern China, where the bulk of the pollution originated, the air pollution was ten times worse.
I know an American brewing engineer who was managing a brewery in inland China. Fifteen years ago, he negotiated a contract that allowed him to spend six months of the year in China and the other six month’s here in Kyoto. That’s what I call remote working. They needed his expertise. He found the air in China in the winter and spring unbreathable. So they reached a compromise.
Today, the situation is completely different. Since COVID started and the world shutdown, no more heavy air pollution. Our skies here in rural Kyoto are blue and sunny. The sasanqua and tsubaki camellias, which were so blighted that that were refusing to flower and losing their leaves in the previous decade, are now blooming beautifully. And the distant mountains are clearly visible again.
China simply isn’t producing as much air pollution as before. Not even half as much. They have certainly cleaned up their act. Either they have made amazing progress in installing anti-pollution equipment, or there is a lot less industry going on in China. Not a few percent less, but less than half. After all, there is no smoke without fire.
Losing a huge chunk of the population would make a lot of sense in the context of losing a huge chunk of the industry.
If this isn’t the explanation, there must be a huge amount of unemployment in China. So, that’s why I find the lost population assertion intriguing, although like you, I can’t bring myself to accept it on president evidence.
Hello OFW dwellers,
This is my first time commenting here after a good part of a decade reading Gail’s posts and comments. I’m a busy man working and by the time I get to read the comments they are always closed.
Regarding China’s pop, I tent to think that the numbers are inflated, mostly based on the fact that the rate of replacement to keep the pop growing wasn’t there because of the one child policy and now because like in the West, Chinese are not that interested in having large families.
As for the abrupt decline in pop number because of Covid or whatever, I can’t be confident on that theory. However I can anecdotally confirm [based on two trips to China in 2025] that funeral homes are busy, very busy. I went to 2 funeral homes, one on each visit for family matters [my wife is Chinese] and the places were overcrowded with burials and cremations. I guess that this is because of a large concentration of elderly people in China. Coincidentally, the building “stairs” section where my late grandmother lived in China [5 stories high – 3 apartments per floor] has experienced 11 deaths of elderly people in the last 3 years; we were just commenting on that last night. That’s because the majority of occupants of those homes are the elderly.
I agree with most of what Tim says here. It needs further scrutiny, made difficult by the lack of transparency from the Chinese gov.
Thank you for your feedback, Ricardo. I agree, the situation needs further scrutiny if we want to get a clearer idea of what’s happening.
Of course, it isn’t easy to scrutinize from the outside and when we don’t have many contacts with those on the inside. Official statistics can’t be trusted 100%, and rumors have to be treated with suspicion, obviously. But anecdotal information such as you’ve provided can be very helpful.
Regarding what’s going on in China’s CCP establishment, I’ve been watching and listening to a China-born and US-based commentator named Lei recently, who summarizes and broadcasts all the latest gossip and rumors. Here is one of her latest.
“After the sudden removal of China’s top generals, Xi Jinping appears to have seized the initiative. But behind the scenes, the opposite may be true. In this program, we break down why Xi is facing a serious legitimacy crisis inside the CCP—how procedural violations, elite fear, and silent resistance are paralyzing the system. From the Politburo’s refusal to publicly back him, to military commanders staying quiet, to insiders fleeing overseas, this is not just a power struggle—it’s a breakdown of trust at the top.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxUt-BVirLA
Lei is a ” deep state ” asset for anti China propaganda . Last year she started a two rumors ( 1 ) Xi is overthrown by the army ( 2 ) Xi has been overthrown by the CCP . Waste of time . Ignore Joe Vlogs on Russia , China Observer (Falun Gong ) . There is now another guy active on X rabidly anti Chinese . I will try to trace and report .
Hey , she is US based .🤣
Haven’t you heard that Zhang was passing nuclear secrets to the US and was about to overthrow Xi(again), even though both are impossible and at 75 would he really want to be executed for treason and have his family blacklisted for generations.
It’s all just a clearing of the decks for war.
https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/arresting-general-zhang-youxia-is?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Congratulations, Ravi. You’ve equated being anti-Xi or anti-CCP with being anti Chinese, using precisely the same logic that equates being anti-Netanyahu or anti-Likud with being anti-Semitic. I can see exactly where you’re coming from with that.
And not just her, but another guy active on X too? For the record, are you suggesting that anybody who expresses anti-Xi or anti-CCP opinions is anti-Chinese? Or is it just those two?
Yeah, I realized she had a possible bias when I heard she had nothing nice to say about that nice President Xi. She called him a totalitarian, of all things. If I keep following her, I fully expect to hear her say he’s a worse dictator and a bigger fascist than Trump!
I myself practice yoga, which has led certain commentators to accuse me of being a “deep state” asset for the Dali Lama, so I can understand how some people might think something similar about anyone who practices qigong-like gentle exercises and meditation.
I haven’t seen Lei foaming at the mouth yet, but I will let you know if I catch her doing that.
The readers here can watch what they stream and come to their own conclusions . Propaganda is propaganda .
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=lei+real+talk
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=china+observer+channel
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=joe+bloggs
I’m not interested in whether what this blogger or that YouTuber or the other journalist is spewing propaganda while giving their opinions. I assume they all are to a certain extent when they talk about politics.
Is it even possible to express—nay—to hold an opinion about the political situation in China, India, Iran, Israel, Russia, the US, or anywhere else, without somebody accusing you of spewing propaganda?
Perhaps Iceland? I would have said Greenland until recently, but not any more. Everything anybody says about the political situation regarding Greenland is somebody’s propaganda, period.
While accusing someone of “spreading propaganda” is not using a traditional slur in the sense of targeting someone based on their group identity, the word propaganda has evolved into a heavily charged pejorative term and epithet of contempt. It is widely used to dismiss, discredit, and insult political, media, or advertising messages by labeling them as biased, misleading, or manipulative, effectively telling third parties, “don’t listen to this—it’s propaganda.”
If someone was spewing propaganda that you agreed with, I doubt that you would even recognize it as being propaganda. The fact that you used the word at all is revealing. You are doing the equivalent of screaming: “Don’t listen to this person! Disregard their views!”
On top of that, you’ve slurred Lei as being “anti-Chinese” and “a deep-state asset” because she expresses anti-Xi and anti-CCP opinions, and because she is US-based.
You may be correct on that. I don’t know. I haven’t researched it. But I have myself been treated in a similar way by people online when expressing opinions that they didn’t agree with. In my time, I’ve been called anti-science, deluded, a whack-job, working for the CIA, working for Erdogan, a denier, a fascist, a useful idiot, an apologist, an agent, and—most hurtfully of all—Jewish. When all I was doing was stating my own opinions that I came by honestly and earnestly.
So, with that history behind me, I have a lot of sympathy for people who get slurred for giving their opinions and not a lot of sympathy for people who do the slurring.
Here is the guy from Taiwan as promised .Enjoy .
https://x.com/Ken_LoveTW
Ravi, you might want to add Tousi TV to that list for his reporting on Iran.
This lady has been saying for months that Xi Jinping is on his way out, practically any day. I have stopped listening to her warnings.
ELITE Planning To CRASH The Economy As SILVER Peaks? | Simon Michaux
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gN4D4YaMUk
Simon also describes the US technocracy movement of the 1930s (explains why Trump wants Greenland)
https://theconversation.com/a-1930s-movement-wanted-to-merge-the-us-canada-and-greenland-heres-why-it-has-modern-resonances-252587
Simon’s 2022 slide show
https://www.akadeemia.ee/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/simon-michaux.-30.05.2022.pdf
His website:
https://www.simonmichaux.com/
and
https://www.promethean-nexus.com/about-us
++++++++++
Debunking Simon (too pessimistic assumptions on availability of materials for an energy transition
https://designing-the-future.org/simon-michaux-debunking/
I’m afraid I only have listened to 35 minutes of the first video.
He says a lot of interesting things, but I am not sure I believe all of them.
He says “Minerals are the new oil.” Oil will become a strategic asset, perhaps only owned by governments, and allocated as they desire.
He thinks that the BRICS currency, or something similar, will in some sense replace the US$ as the currency of trade.
He thinks derivatives will completely disappear. The Basel III Banking Accord only became effective this month. He says that under the new accord, banks have to get rid of all paper gold. All that matters in real gold. He talks as if that change will spread to all derivatives.
He believes the big increase in world GDP trend line that took place starting in 2002 relates to adding derivatives to GDP. (I didn’t know that. How about China entering the World Trade Organization in late 2001?)
He says a change is taking place, equivalent to Constantinople falling, and trade routes changing, as the Arabs took the city over and converted the city to Istanbul. (I can agree with that.)
——-
There is a lot to listen to. Minerals are not going to replace oil any time soon, in my opinion. Renewable energy is nowhere near taking off, anytime soon, especially with inadequate oil supply. Russia and China have their own problems. Whether they can take off, especially without enough oil, and replace the US, is very up in the air.
Weaponizing the periodic table .
How China won the war without firing a shot .
https://no01.substack.com/p/china-usa
Rather than to think like Simon does, “that we don’t have enough minerals to get us off fossil fuels”, I like to think that we don’t have enough fossil fuels to get us off fossil fuels.
After all, all these gadgets for renewable are entirely produced, maintained and retired using fossil fuels. We will only increase the use of fossil fuels trying to add renewables, and if we all accept that FF are in decline, then it is obvious that we are going to be off fossil fuels sooner, just not energy richer.
Right, I am afraid.
Yep the pretzel logic of career peak oilers who will never stop bargaining with Collapse on one level or another, never ceases to amaze me. Another, closely correlated example of bargaining here is Simon saying the Elites are planning to crash the economy as silver peaks (which turned out not to be true since the Hand was just wisely squeezeing out the paper market): when the economy finally crashes it will only ever be because of the Hand’s sisyphean realization that the rock can’t be pushed up the hill anymore. And imo the Big Nuclear Scare will historically define that realization and nothing else.
Fertility rates round the world are dropping well below 2.2 the zero growth/decline rate. Even Catholic South America is down at US rates of 1.6 The UN inflates the numbers for South America so as to not scare anybody, but the individual nation report their own numbers honestly.
I would say the self structuring system is working hard to avoid a decline in hydrocarbon per person. We may have nothing to worry about. There maybe stress and strain through the dieting process. In China we see factions actually killing members of competing factions! I suspect that even in the US there is a limit to how much money the federal government can spread to both the blue and red. I expect the US to be far less stoic than China when push comes to shove. I likewise expect to see Europe revert to its normal response war among themselves.
An interesting variation would be for Europe to stick together and join with China to divide Russia’s resources. It would be a win win for them but a loose for the US.
I see the possibility of a multipolar world. There can be a Eurasian world, an African world, and the Americas, for example. Each would be different. If resources are available, I expect that they will be used by someone.
Yes, eventually the (bigger) US / North America fractures, re-arranges a bit.
Alberta joins the core, while some other (East Coast) states form antagonistic union on their own etc.
Possibly, it could also take milder form and happen way earlier as just in few yrs time! Under such scenario the rules ( fed / state / municipal) would be applied or disregarded at the same time and per given specific ad hoc situation or particular events of the day unfolding. In short, loose union and new quasi partnerships.. ahead ; unfortunately sharp edges / boundaries would have to be contested hard given the peculiarities of ~violent US existence.
Thank you so much, Gail, for an excellent new post.
One question I have is, how much of the “constraint” on diesel and jet fuel supply is the result of diesel prices being too low for producers, how much due to regulations and restrictions on production driven by environmental regulations, and how much due to sanctions on various oil producers including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela?
I freely admit that this subject is too complex and convoluted for me to wrap my head around it.
Meanwhile, this old Simpsons episode looks a lot like predictive programming.
Although it’s possible Trump saw the episode and the idea stuck in his mind.
“Much Apu About Nothing” is the twenty-third episode of the seventh season of the American animated television series The Simpsons. It originally aired on the Fox network in the United States on May 5, 1996. In the episode, a referendum is placed on the ballot that will require all illegal immigrants in Springfield to be deported. After learning that Apu will be deported if the measure passes, Homer helps him prepare for a United States citizenship test so that he can become a legal citizen.
You ask:
“how much of the “constraint” on diesel and jet fuel supply is the result of diesel prices being too low for producers, how much due to regulations and restrictions on production driven by environmental regulations, and how much due to sanctions on various oil producers including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela?”
As I see it, the self-organizing system works through many different mechanisms working together at the same time. Environmental regulations, as far as I can see, are mostly driven by a concern that a country cannot afford to import oil. They want the oil that is available to go to other countries, so leaders of these countries set up higher barriers, to push available oil elsewhere.
“Sanctions” seem to be put in place, indirectly, to save some oil for later. They should be going away, because we are reaching limits on oil extraction, especially heavy oil extraction. .
I should note that we in the Advanced Countries are fortunate that Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, after oil prices had been low since about 1983. (Low oil prices lead the least efficient oil exporters to collapse.) During this period, both oil production and consumption dropped greatly in the former Soviet Union. The population of Russia and other former parts of the Soviet Union fell. These changes saved a lot of oil for later use.
Russia’s oil has tended to be heavy. This has helped keep Diesel+Jet Fuel as high as it has been, for as long as it has been. But Russian standards of living are not up to those of the Advanced Nations, and the country is not happy about this.
Gail, how much of the increased per capita consumption of light oil is due to increased plastic production?
Not much if any. Refiners find that they have too much of the very light stuff. They are overjoyed for a plastics manufacturers to take some of it. They sometimes have to sell the light stuff just to be burned, competing with natural gas for price. That price is usually way too low.
The light oil provides solvents. The light oil also seems to provide a feed stock for things like herbicides and pesticides. Some of the heavier light oil can be added to gasoline, but only when the weather is cool enough so that evaporation is not a problem.
My main concern is with the availability of drinking water, and not just in the world, not just right here in the United States, but right here in Upstate New York where I live. New York State contains the largest open bodies of fresh water in the world. These include the Great Lakes and the Finger Lakes. We are losing them to over-population and pollution.
“A new study released by Nature Communications claims that the world population count may have been severely underestimated through miscounting in rural areas, challenging the widely accepted figure of approximately eight billion people on Earth. Led by Josias Láng-Ritter, a group of researchers at Aalto University in Finland found that the global census could have excluded around 53% to 84% of the population in rural settings, according to NDTV World.”
I bring this up because the demand for drinking water is becoming critical right here in the United States, and where I live in Upstate New York.
As a source of drinking water, the Finger Lakes have been called “The Crown Jewels of New York State.” However, we are experiencing severe declines in water quality. Giant “mile high” landfills at the head of Keuka Lake fuel concerns of pollutants leaching into the lake. Two-hundred years of industrial farming has allowed phosphate runoffs into the lake. Abandoned septic systems are leaching nitrates into the lakes. Invasive species — over ten (10) now — are harming the ecology of the lakes. Zebra Mussels are present from top to bottom of Keuka Lake, with depths of 200-feet. A new study released by Nature Communications claims that the world population count may have been severely underestimated through miscounting in rural areas, challenging the widely accepted figure of approximately eight billion people on Earth. Led by Josias Láng-Ritter, a group of researchers at Aalto University in Finland found that the global census could have excluded around 53% to 84% of the population in rural settings, according to NDTV World. Harmful algae blooms are turning the lakes green.
The Cuomo family has held a firm grip on power in New York State. Mario Cuomo, Governor of New York States from 1983 until 1994. His son, Andrew Cuomo became Governor of New York State from 2011 until he resigned from office in 2021. For decades the locals have been concerned with what they saw as the decline in water quality on Keuka Lake, with no apparent response from the elected for life professional politicians. The governor was accused of hiding critical studies, including one by Cornell University, about declining water quality of “The Crown Jewels of New York State.”
My family has had a place on Keuka Lake, beginning in 1966, until my father’s death in 2020. The children sold the cottage on the lake because of property taxes, out of control assessments on a place bought in 1984 for approximately $80,000 selling in 2021 for almost $900,000. The harmful algae blooms (HABs) don’t seem to be slowing down out-of-control price increases for lake front property on Keuka Lake. A dedicated drinking water filter line was installed in the cottage a decade ago. That was a big warning sign to the children. Those who had the land to spare, they dug wells and stopped taking any water directly from the lake. Only recently has the state started installing a drinking water utility pipe lines. A dedicated sewar system is still decades away.
Meanwhile the water gets greener and greener. In 2023 there were twenty-one reported algae blooms on Keuka Lake. Six of those were classified as HABs last.
Seen some aerial pic of the area, must have been idyllic in the less populous times..
May I ask you about the prevalent sewer system among the near shore line cottage owners there.., composting toilets or not at all ?
I recall from my own past, ~similar msl and latitude, although at (rocky / steep) river bank. The old timers, who as youngsters build summer cottages there circa WWI – interwar – WWII period, by 1960-70s I remember almost everybody of them have some sort of basic composting toilet – usually as outhouse (wood chip, ashes, ..) but guys urinating near bushes, eventually into the river.. (girlz having in-door pot-buckets to empty out), that’s was considered ok-ish even by many of fisherman themselves nearby, (today’s science would tend to agree) lol.
Potable water was sourced from the rocky hill side /only/ though, dug out well pump per several households, and way above that sort of natural (tiny) stream in the hills, so that’s how the old timers guessed for stronger water source in situ. Obviously, no trash into the river allowed (kids slapped if misbehaved in that) etc., there could have been some run off from the nearby fields across the bank though. The algae situation was not an issue (perhaps a bit near ford/wade across the slow speed part of river), again a different system vs lake.
But I know that lakes everywhere (northern hemi) are to some degree suffering from it chiefly in recent decades – even as the AG uses less fertilizers, perhaps there could be some aerial component to it as well, as per some ~metal molecule particles in the air helping to support algae bloom near the water surface.. I guess there were some studies on this angle of “seeding from the air washout pollution”, can’t recollect the details..
No composting toilets. If you asked the residents whether they had a composting toilet their faces would go blank. Huh?
Our first cottage, purchased in 1966, was not a year-round-home. It didn’t have a septic system. There wasn’t enough acreage for a drainage field. That cottage had a holding tank, situated maybe 25-feet from the lake. Maybe 10-feet from the beach. This got pumped out once every 2-years. Sometimes more.
The second place, a year-round place my parents retired to, had 7-acres right behind it come up for sale in 1990. My father wrote the seller, a neighbor, a check that day. $30,000 for 7-acres in 1990. Actually, a very good price. Back then. Good thing, too.
In 2006 the original septic system aged out. By then old systems had to be completely pumped out and removed. The state ruled a new system couldn’t go where the old one had been. The new system had to go across the street, in the 7-acres purchased in 1990. Hardly any cottage owner has that much property. If you have 50-feet of lake frontage you were lucky. The state was all over my father. He had to hire a geologist to make sure the soil was permeable. The drainage field was a real piece of art. Everything had to be signed off on. The state, Fish and Wildlife, the works. You went blind on permits. In person inspections were routine. The whole mess cost my father what he had paid for a whole cottage in 1966 — $30,000.00.
Way too little. Way too late. The residents tried warning the state way back in 1972 that things were heading south on water quality on Keuka Lake. The white foam was not clothing or dish detergent. It was algae. Nobody listened. Crickets. Cottages are still being built right next door and on top of each other. Some rich developer came in and broke a taboo against building places on “the bluff.” If properties are separated by 3-feet you are some rich elite. The zoning commission is run by local property owners. They aren’t going to rock the boat. They don’t seem to be aware they are shitting where they eat (or drink).
“Seen some aerial pic of the area, must have been idyllic in the less populous times . . .”
My father started going to Keuka Lake back in the 1940s. He said that back then you couldn’t give property away on Keuka Lake.
That all changed after World War II.
I was lucky. I got to enjoy the lake during its “salad days.”
“Salad days” is a Shakespearean idiom referring to a period of carefree innocence, idealism, and pleasure associated with youth. So, I got to enjoy the lake while it was still young.
Thanks for the details.
The river side place I was referring to was microscopic in acreage vs yours situation, literally small summer cottages in front with few dozen m2 of gardens between river bank trail and rock wall behind.
Basically, the times prevailed and commanded as always, young people who had family members affected by WWI, and not immersed in the roaring 1920s escaped into nature instead, I guess these marginal parcels were almost for free – the true expense was on the administration fee only, and then the diy build-up ( plus some upgrades in the boom yrs after WWII ).
People then just spend all the day in nature (river / forest) or at nearby basic valley-ball court around the wade/ford broadening leveled area, etc. Transport by foot to nearest rail station. Sadly, it was completely destroyed (at least that charming far distant part) by flooding in the late 80s/90s and only partially revamped.
It also depends on the land profile, usually such marginal / cheap land for summer house throughout the industrial age was available only in hilly, ravine regions of Scandinavia, parts of Central Europe and so on. Land with little or no other use, too far, rocky or otherwise not suitable for regular real estate dev, biz, AG / grazing-pasture, .. etc.
The ~posh paid for country-side rental vacations ala UK/FR/low countries was a very different world.. or practiced by the older 50+ generation only.
“But I know that lakes everywhere (northern hemi) are to some degree suffering from it chiefly in recent decades . . . .”
Rochester, NY bought two smaller Finger Lakes — Hemlock and Canadice Lakes — banned all development on them, and they are being over-run by algae blooms. No one knows why. It doesn’t make sense.
Algae blooms are showing up in all open bodies of water — ponds, reservoirs, fresh water daily holding tanks, etc. The freshwater intakes of cities, towns and cities are being clogged by algae — in places like Detroit and Bellingham, WA.
I tend to wonder if this isn’t a Black Swan event. No water. No life.
“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near.” — The Doors
If I had to guess, my first guess would be high levels of nutrient runoff, particularly phosphorus and nitrogen.
I haven’t studied this issue, but there seems to be plenty of agricultural and residential land in the area that drains into these and the other Finger Lakes.
What do you think?
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Canadice+Lake/@42.7166455,-77.5694709,11836m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x89d16cb1a7531777:0xb8cefdfa48d881e!8m2!3d42.7177833!4d-77.5691064!16zL20vMDJfdnFz?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDEyOC4wIKXMDSoKLDEwMDc5MjA2N0gBUAM%3D
I failed to mention that Rochester, NY uses Hemlock and Canadice Lakes for its primary water supply.
All the Finger Lakes were carved out by glacier. This material (glacial till) was deposited on either side of lakes, hence the high hillsides. The agricultural runoff has only one way to go.
Both Cayuga and Seneca Lakes have depths that are below sea level.
This Nature Communications paper.
Lang-Ritter, et al. (2025) Global gridded population datasets systematically underrepresent rural population.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56906-7#Sec7
Let us do a “back of the envelope” calculation.
8.3 billion people reported today. 4.6 billion are urban. That means today’s rural population is 3.7 billion people.
Lang-Ritter provides two figures for uncounted rural population. 53% uncounted, and 85% uncounted.
So the rural population adjustments are:
1/(1-0.53) = 2.13 & 1/(1-0.85) = 6.67
This means that rural population today is a range from 7.87 billion to 24.67 billion people.
This places the current world population between 12.47 billion and 29.27 billion people.
That suggests that if every city over a population of 500 people was annihilated, human population left over would be ~7.9 to ~24.7 billion people.
I have trouble believing that. It would mean that total agricultural production should be far higher than it is. by a factor of 1.5 to almost 4X. I do not find this credible for that reason.
3.7 + 6.67 = 10.37 where do you get 29.27?
10-Billion seems to be the “revised” world population number coming out of various sources now. Makes sense to me.
The United States cannot even account for the true number of illegal aliens (somewhere between 20- and 40-million illegal aliens), living off the American Taxpayer, receiving free housing, smart phones, food, SMART, education, healthcare, the works, but mainly off of already broke, busted and bankrupt programs.
The US Military hasn’t been able to provide a balanced budget in over 70-years.
The United States was already broke, busted, and bankrupt by over-spending on the Vietnam War when then President Richard Nixon took the country off the gold standard on August 15, 1971.
Overall, the fraud is astounding. Based upon past experience, my guess is the local, state and federal governments are low-balling the degree of fraud.
The water situation you describe is indeed alarming. It sounds like there are different versions of the problem many other places, as well. The capital of Iran, Tehran, seems to have huge problems, for example.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanats
After Ruining a Treasured Water Resource, Iran Is Drying Up
Iran is looking to relocate the nation’s capital because of severe water shortages that make Tehran unsustainable. Experts say the crisis was caused by years of ill-conceived dam projects and overpumping that destroyed a centuries-old system for tapping underground reserves.
I read several of these articles. They are all practically the same, word for word, which makes me think it’s just more “Fog of War” propaganda stuff. After all, according to General Wesley Clark, Iran is on the list of the seven (7) Middle Eastern countries the US was going to conquer.
https://youtu.be/z8ityb0Ips4
Thanks for the information. It is hard to know. Even before AI, we had problems with planted articles, or ones that didn’t really tell the truth.
Re video with General Wesley Clark “nothing else to do than go to war in Iraq…”
Bush and Dick Cheney knew from Matt Simmons and his Energy Task Force that oil would peak in 2005. Iraq was the only country which had underproduced oil
16/3/2013
Iraq war and its aftermath failed to stop the beginning of peak oil in 2005
https://crudeoilpeak.info/iraq-war-and-its-aftermath-failed-to-stop-the-beginning-of-peak-oil-in-2005
Yes.
It would be interesting to know if the [shale miracle] was always assumed as set aside back-up “last” reserve of sorts (for the US gasoline consumption).
Or it was developed haphazardly hastily-successfully out of the war-risen oil market prices and ~banks willing to fund it.. Also that China mega growth vector then etc.
That rhymes with the sudden LNG sector rise as well..
Another reason for the US and Israel to justify their war on Iran?
“Iran is incompetent. They can’t even look after their own water supply. We need to go in and save the Iranian people.”
That statement made me think of the United States, the Colorado River, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, and putting a city (Las Vegas) and states (Arizona) in a desert. Who’s incompetent now?
Gail, what do you think about Friedland’s pulse powered mining?
He promised to:
1. Reduce perfuration costs
2. Reduce refining costs
3. Make geothermal possible
If he can achieve geothermal, and then make all of our vast and enourmos energetically unfeasible mines and oil deposits recoverable, then the problem gets to be shoved into the far future again, no?
Question is, will this technology deliver? How much can it raise the EROI of things? Will it be implemented worldwide in time before things break?
I’m having conflicted feelings about it – it has the potential to be ‘the’ solution for “all” of our problems, but at the same time I’m a realist and pessimist, we also don’t have specific numbers of the technology’s capacity and it hasn’t been implemented commercially.
He is just another guy trying to get a quick buck. He will say whatever to attract investors while taking forever to deliver.
I will believe it when It is scaled up at reasonable cost.
Peak global middle distillate consumption will occur by year-end 2028. The decline through 2040 is gradual, basically a plateau. After 2040 it becomes a serious problem, per Hubbert Math. On a per capita basis, it will become a problem sooner as everyone is fighting for a stagnate, then declining share of the pie. Better get your travel done sooner than later.
I agree we need to get our travel done sooner rather than later.
I am skeptical that the decline is as modest as you suggest. Also, it is really the per-capita decline that matters, and that has already started.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jUb-foVTYoM
How Heavy Fuel Oil Powers The World – The Truth Revealed
How much of such as diesel or kerosene (jet fuel) comes from the shale-oil-fracking ventures? (I doubt it’s much.)
I guess it’s kind of an addiction in places like the US, that “Keynesian” “modern monetary theory” has governments habitually borowing to pay interest, & then a lot — mathematically, there’s “catastrophe theory”, like a breaking rubber band — when the debt “matures & has to be re-borrowed, if new lenders aren’t found, isn’t that the end of the “pyramid scheme”?
These folks are pros – the system is being actively stabilized (way past its lifecycle) by several methods for decades (and centuries in some aspects). There are many books, articles, even YTch dedicated to this very topic.
– govs / CBs new issuance of roll over debt & suppression of (possible spike) int rates .. ,
– always introducing new stock / synthetic money manias: Renewables, IT, Cryptos, WAR, ..
..
.
Obviously, it will top over / evaporate one day, it could be over even by tomorrow, in five yrs, next 5 decades or centuries – millennia even, we don’t know. But, obviously, at the moment no sane top world gov wants to take over (prematurely) over the legacy system just yet, so the rot boils inside hot just everywhere like clogged faucet..
The most likely scenario is that at some harder de-globalization threshold (NOT necessarily the very next one crossroad), the markets completely melt down, and in the after-math the int trade will / would eventually recover on very tiny footprint again and more like in barter trade basis of goods again, so barrels of oil / energy, food, became the pillars again. Although, at way lower global-trade (surplus) throughput volumes obviously.
Locally, the providers join rough necks to form the new govs.
Hence, he who hopes – speculates to drive through these hard times un-touched by the overall chaos would be mistaken. But again, the exact timing and sequencing to navigate ahead is just probabilities..
This is the stuff that is disappearing from the bottom layers of Figures 3 and 4. Laws are being written to severely restrict this Heavy Fuel Oil use. Refineries want the extra business of refining this oil into diesel. There is much less of this used now than in the past.
Ed Dowd’s view of where the economy is
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/never-seen-risk-my-career-ed-dowd-warns
Never Seen Risk Like This Before In My Career”, Ed Dowd Warns
“The three fundamental risks that we see for the US economy for 2026…”
“There are two internal risks and one external risk.
The first risk is US housing crisis/white swan event. Immigrants came in and filled the gap.
That’s now stopped. . .. Deportations are going to continue over the next year to two years, and that is going to continue to put pressure on homes.
Affordability is a disaster. Incomes do not allow people to buy homes at these prices.
The only way to correct this is home prices dropping 25% to 30% over the next two years. That would set us up for a recovery.”
Dowd continues, “The second risk to the US economy is a stock market bubble…”
“The valuations are as bad as the Dot Com bubble. . .
The third risk is China.
It is entering into the acute phase of its economic crisis.
This is going to be a global contagion. It will hurt Japan and South Korea, and this will spill over to the US. . .. It will be a liquidity crisis, and that is why we are bullish on the US dollar.” (Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors. It has shocking new and never before released details about how much trouble China is really in.)
This is a 44 minute video. It previews his view of the China crisis, among other things.
https://rumble.com/v754s0o-ive-never-seen-risk-like-this-before-in-my-career-ed-dowd.html
Apparently the South Korean stock market was manually halted today. In light of what is going on in China… perhaps the fuse has been lit.
GAil…
Your post was mostly about diesel fuel and most of the respondents discusses discus anything but that…what is your
Take on that? It’s me…Steve Kiersch
It is OK. We use the comments section to talk about a variety of subjects related to energy and the economy. I have learned a lot over the years from my commenters and the links they provide.
Gail explains the diesel situation to exhaustively well that there is little left to ask. As for me, I feel thoroughly enlightened. The post is beautifully succinct.
yes, this forum is more of a rolling commentary on collapse so events of the day tend to take precedence. But in the past we discussed the minutia of diesel many times, since it is central to current history.
The section on China starts around minute 18 and lasts until minute 27. Dowd says that China’s currency has been depreciating at about 10% per year, relative to the US$, since 2020. He says that at one point (2020?), China’s GDP was 80% of the US’s GDP, priced in US$. Now it is only 60% of US GDP. China’s GDP growth in US dollars was at first flat, and now it is negative. Huge overbuilding is a problem, as is a falling number of working age citizens.
China will tend to export its problems to other Asian countries, including Japan and So. Korea. In fact, its problems will affect markets around the world.
You have to assume the incoming next wave of robotics though. Basically, the large xy-DOF (degree of freedom) ala hand in human-iod robots is here TODAY.
So, imagine for an assembly line – plant you will need only-mostly the upper part body aka torso w. hands and sensory head, all attached stationed near conveyor belt assembly spot / work station, that’s around sub $20k per piece in Muskian terms.. The payback for such updated factory is fast, the layoffs will be massive.
On the other hand, take the education level – absorption among CHN pop vs US. Basically, most of the hi IQ talent now employed in top tech US corp world is either second or current migration wave from all around the world, and there is no replacement for them (US vacuumed them already in), as mostly their offspring stateside would be at least partially affected by the prevailing US declining culture as well. In short, longer term win for CHN, despite the misaligned aging gap. (The talent scouting works also the other way around but its comparatively tiny – CHN tends to hire only team and higher management cadre from US/EU to finish up their booming trajectory in various sectors they feel still falling behind).
Now, there is also the issue, who is going to buy all that wonderful mass production by robots ? So, shorter working week and or daily hours trimmed ahead.. ; tax deductions or even stipends – vouchers issued for consumption to the benefit of ordinary pop ? Or more likely sharp-edged multi-tiered society where only secluded tiny minority enjoys the produced output.. and ~savages are pushed behind the proverbial wall ?
Iain McGilchrist has an interesting perspecive on civilization collapse:
Thanks for the new article.
I was wondering if you delayed the release a bit vis a vis the expected – looming confrontation in the Gulf. But it seems now subsiding with the CHN/RU hw deployed.. and ISR easing-opening up the border. Nevertheless some limited sparks could eventually materialize as the big boyz are set to chart new boundaries of influence.
More on the topic, yours 12/2025: “EU also ran” description – has progressed in recent weeks into way more plainly visible-apparent form one would be expecting even under the ~fast action of history narrative. In any case as the old saying proved to be validated now as there are occasionally just few dayz and weeks of compressed time-space in which otherwise protracted numerous decades tend to unravel..
– Ep. files ~confirming (already known) facts about global economy structure and int. relations, as well as recent events (chiefly the bug-vax 2019/20 thing), ..
– Prof. Zharkova finally “delivered” – as RU govs evidently waited and stocked piled newly manuf. missiles for such a cold snap in attacking salvo on energy infrastructure
– latest Hagens’ vid rhymes with the de-globalization (as in drag on previously achieved top efficiency), stalling, re-structuring / pre-collapse scenario
..
.
Do you have a link to the Hagens video link that you write about?
The organisms are the product of their environment: the weeds are there because the soil is poor, it lacks something, usually it has more bacteria than fungi:
https://youtu.be/9RZtRf0Ouiw?si=LkPfrOCP6uo3SLzG
So, you need additional inputs to make the soil suitable for crops consumed by humans, if the soil is poor: carbon, fertilizers, water, weed control, pest control etc.
Imagine those vast areas of Gran Chaco in South America, the last frontier of the agriculture: nothing can grow there except for some invasive heat and drought tolerant shrubs with deep roots.
Despite this fact, humans entered this area with their attempts to cultivate crops or graze animals there. And they fail. The area returns to its lower energy state, i.e. the shrubs return. Noting else can grow there.
Most likely, some dedicated perma-culturist(s) would make it work anyhow.
But as you suggested the mineral layer profile takes primary role in such edgy ~ecosystem hence the future cultivation would be likely scaled to very strange set of produce and animals (relationships) combo with the soil and overall climate conditions there.. And obviously this having direct bearing on suggested hard limit of eventual pop numbers settling there..
Large scale agriculture is inefficient on poor soils. And you have to collect water for dry seasons, otherwise the crops fail.
Pls. read my post again, I DID NOT suggest large scale agriculture approach at all. Merely, observed that even in such harsh environments something could be tweaked for these very specific conditions at way smaller scale of operation and pop levels.
Not serious, just as an quick illustration: imagine hot/cold blood species eating (and soiling) on creepy odd bushes, otherwise not for human consumption. Voila, and suddenly you have proteins for few dozens Ks of pop there..
ps hot/cold meant as per given locale, so in warmer desertified areas cold blood species and vice versa for cold land.. Say human-iods harvesting there climate-mutant species: reptiles-turtles (cold b.) vs dwarf piggies (hot b.) ..
I have just confirmed your statement: the system returns back to a lower energy level of life.
Large scale agriculture created by humans needs higher energy levels: good soil (i.e. carbon for fungi development and other elements and nutrients), favourable climate (i.e. an ideal mixture of heat and humidity)…
Higher energy level for life means an optimum: too much heat or too much cold kills the life.
There is a big food problem looming behind the diesel fuel shortages: the agriculture in tropical areas.
200 years ago, people started to push the frontiers of agriculture into these areas. That is why the agriculture in the tropical areas is so called “frontier agriculture”. The poor soils and unreliable climate conditions were mitigated by cheap resources in the form of oil and fertilizers.
Now that era of cheap inputs is gone. See the sattelite images of abandoned fields in tropical areas.
The biggest problem of Venezuela is its declining agriculture.
Brazil is about 10 years from serious problems, because its agriculutre can not produce quality food cheaply and be competitive in the era of the ageing populations.
Farmers in India face the same problems: No crops, no marriage
https://youtu.be/CQ4DtJz28yU?si=mzDcMNkGOsE0YJYg
Thus the food insecurity in the tropical areas seems to be the main driver of the immigration towards the countries with milder climate.
The humans originated in the area of the African rift where volcanic soil provided various tubers, roots that could be cooked in the geothermal springs. Food and additional energy were free.
However, the soil in the tropical areas is very poor: little carbon and other key elements, like phosphorus, are in short supply.
The scale of this problem of frontier agriculture is massive…
If you put this problem with exploding population in many warm countries, there is a very major problem.
Indonesia’s green Islam: When climate protection becomes a religious duty | DW Documentary
https://youtu.be/IVRaoIWQpHM?si=pBAMhjD2Mpa90Dcr
Yes, as debated recently, don’t eat these sub standard vine grapes imported from Lula – Brazil ! They are gross-disgusting – planted in absolutely wrong climate and soilz. Although some favorable tiny niches could be hiding there.. as well, disclaimer.
Thanks Gail,
Nice to see the diesel per capita chart…..plenty of oil charts out there but few diesel ones.
It looks like the 2010s saw peak production for many things including peak diesel and peak silver.
The action in the silver market is fascinating….is physical reality imposing itself on the paper/digital casino? We’ll see.
Silver has been acting like a Meme Stock. Investors are desperate to find something whose price will rise. But many investors all piling into a very thin market doesn’t work. The paper price and actual metal’s price may separate. Banks may be affected by these problems.
But most importantly it affects the electronics industry.
In particular, PVs could become unobtanium. What a shocker when they have been giving them out almost for free past few decades..
I understand that Apple’s recent spurt in I-phone sales is causing their inventory to become depleted. They are having difficulty finding materials at reasonable prices to make new inventory.
Looks like more justification for moving toward a bioregionally organized society.
I agree. I think that this is part of the reason we have not seen a pushback from China with respect to Trump’s actions in Venezuela. China is a major oil importer. While Venezuela owes China a significant amount of money, repayable in oil, China cannot easily enforce this repayment.
USA is trying to sell the VZ oil to china via Trifigura but china doesn’t want it. Instead china increased heavy oil imports from Canada by 300 percent.
Now Trump wants to sell the VZ oil to India. Art Berman says that the refiners in India cannot refine VZ crude.
You offer such a unique perspective, Gail. The often overlooked significance and challengesof “bottom of the barrel” crude. Several chapters worth of valuable insights introduced in one concise article, begging for a forward-looking conclusion. Food for thought. Thank you for sharing your insights.
You are welcome.
By the way, the version of the post that is now up is very slightly different from the version that was emailed to many people. I moved a paragraph out of the introduction and into the “background” section. I added a sentence to the introduction:
“In this post, I will try to explain the situation further. One conclusion: Conflict results from the need to reorganize the world economy in a way that uses less long-distance international trade.”
Covid-19 was a BAIL-IN. You cannot legally mandate a healthy worker to take 2 doses of experimental, non-sterilizing modified mRNA Gene Therapy platform injections to keep her job. This is a flagrant violation of the constitution. Unions aided and abetted the crimes committed against their members (federal government workers) during the Convid fake pandemic. Billions of dollars were stolen from rightfully non-compliant workers whose payrolls, benefits and pensions were ELIMINATED. Simultaneously, not only “antivaxxers” but ALL government workers were disparaged by the media in order to manufacture consent for the crimes committed against them. This is the same playbook used against Muslims to justify forever wars, resource/land theft in the Middle East. Covid-19 was de facto DISASTER CAPITALISM using MKULTRA SHOCK THERAPY for asset-stripping of citizens. I was one of them.
https://thenationaltelegraph.com/national/canadian-crown-corporations-coerced-employees-with-fake-vaccine-mandate/
https://unbekoming.substack.com/cp/166988056
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349881372_Effect_of_Coronavirus_Worldwide_through_Misusing_of_Wireless_Sensor_Networks
The self-organizing economy seems to have somehow come up with the covid-19 vaccine and related shut ins to temporarily solve many problems. Some of these problems were financial. With the shut down, governments were able to greatly pump up debt. The system was able to continue, mostly as before.
I am thankful that I figured out early on that taking the covid-19 vaccine made sense. Of course, that decision caused conflict for me, too. This conflict is all part of the shift toward a new, more localized, world order.
Well, it was self-organizing effort indeed, hah.
Chiefly, among characters such as Billy-boy “health/pharma” enterprises, Jeffrey Ep., Nowak, .. and the Harvard’s “Program for Evolutionary Dynamics PED”, which pre-modeled pandemics viruses on previous HIV research etc. The basic outlay is now in the open, all top honchos in govs/biz/media know about it..
Obviously, we don’t know if they initially #1 aimed for large over-all global depop strike, or ~merely partial longish drawn depop (shock threat + fin scam) out of it, and or as bridge to forcing various gov mandates on pop ala mandating e-IDs, and or war against assuming then destabilized CHN/RU or any other combination of thereof..
It happened on purpose, no matter how the later execution phase bogged down (partially) or not.. And given the recent warring spike globally – one could assume the operation was a flop, i.e. in the end very low depop / fertility long term effects induced. But that as always will be 99% corroborated only in the future.
“I figured out early on that taking the covid-19 vaccine made sense.”
Or did you actually mean “made NO sense” ?
Right! Made no sense. Sorry. I never took it.
Thank you very much for this clarification, and the article, as always, Gail!
150 years ago, we bgan to use diesel power .
that seimsic shift in the utilisation of the sun’s energy (the fossilised store of it)began to replace muscle power…
it added an extra 7bn of us to the planet’s ipeople nventory.
as universal access to diesel leaves us….we will try all sorts of ‘breakthroughs’—none of which will deliver our needs….
ultimately we will revert to muscle power—but it will not support 8bn people.
Norman, it might in a steady state situation. There are some very able regenerative farmers around and they do get higher yields per hectare than large scale industrial farmers (on smaller farms, i.e. more attention to each ha). However, could 8,000,000,000 people get there, from here, in time? No idea.
I’ve believed in the case for rural resettlement since 1975 but the UK began to urbanise again in the 1990s possibly linked due to ‘globalisation’. In the 1960s/70s there’d been a steady move from big cities to small towns and the countryside.
Barry Cooper, who you may know, looked into this population shift for many years. In 2023 he published a book ‘How to Find Our Way into the Future’.
london—for instance, has 8 million people.
to ”rural resttle” them, would require 5 acres each—roughly the amount of land required to feed one adult—ok—that might vary a bit–but i’m not just talking about food, but everything else….firewood, clothes, building materials—and so on.—but only the basics. no machines etc.
now—
the area of the uk is 52 m acres, so the people of london would consume 2/3rd of the available land, before we start to worry about everyone else.
and those 52 m acres include all the land which cannot produce food—-so effectively the people of London would consume all the output of the UK.
not sure how much of the uk has been built over—guesing over 10%.
So we are looking a bit short of space.
just sayin’
Oh— nearly forgot—if you intend to use horses for motive power, each horse needs 2 acres too……
Read Kenneth Mellanby’s ‘Can Britain Feed Itself?’ (1975.) The answer was ‘Yes’.
Repeat analyses by Simon Fairlie and Chris Smaje in the 21st.C led to the same conclusion.
No horses are needed. If the answer is 5 acres, you probably asked the wrong question.
we produce food via nirogen fertliers—which are largely imported.
i also specifically made the point about materials other than food.
yes– a fit young man can grow enough food to feed himsellf and a small family—but fit young men grow old—then what?
London has 1.680.000 inhabitants, who require 8.5 Mio acres. I’m more worried about the upcoming little Ice Age.
The population of Greater London in 2025 is estimated to be over 9.8 million, driven by continued growth. Some estimates place the population slightly lower, around 9.1 million to 9.2 million based on recent Office for National Statistics projections, while the wider metropolitan area is estimated to be closer to 15 million.
Have you seen this video about Gobekli Tepe. It seems to suggest that technologies existed more than 12,000 years ago that are close to impossible to duplicate today.
The Pyramids and many egyptian artefacts may be much older than usually credited:
Egyptian vases:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BlmFKSGBzI
Granite box:
There was a video that said there are 13 layer below Gobekli Tepe and that the bottom is a ring of statues facing inward. It is a lie I suspect this video is an equal AI/lie video.
I suppose it is possible that this video is another AI lie.
It is hard to know what to believe. I try to work out my own analysis of government numbers. Of course, these may be wrong too.
Difficult. You have to think about who has the interest to make such a film?
There is a similar film about the Pyramids of Giza, especially regarding the return of the cataclysm. The background is the undisputed fact that the Earth’s orbit around the Sun changes cyclically, crossing an area, the Kuiper belt, which contains many floating fragments and asteroids, which increases the chance of a collision.
In terms of content, the film takes up a narrative by Graham Hancock, according to which the survivors of a higher culture, destroyed by a cataclysm, brought their knowledge and message to a lower culture.
One can probably put forward the idea that all food production before the Neolithic Revolution was fat-based. The novelty was the triumph of grain, which was transportable and storable. The fact that there was no selection and breeding before is certainly a wrong idea.
Stone Age cultures later have demonstrably created nut plantations and winter stocks and kept reindeer herds. Fat is twice as energy dense as starch and would have been transportable, e.g. as ghee. Herbs and sprouts can also be grown locally. A river nearby would certainly have helped logistically. It would also be conceivable that one had large animals in that time, such as mammoths, elephants and camels.
The interesting point is the accumulation of utilities, which presupposes that all participants recognize a need for this.
The Neolithic revolution is spreading from the two-stream country, which is very close by, in all directions, towards Europe, India and Africa, carried, apparently, by young men who brought the knowledge with them. This is suggested by genetic analyses.
Ben Davidson is still doing his YouTube channel about the disaster that he believes to befall Earth every 12 000 years. He believes that Earth’s magnetic field will decrease to such an extent in the 2030’s that the grid will no longer work. Machines will no longer work and will become statues. You won’t be able to start your car because the ignition won’t work.
https://www.youtube.com/@SpaceWeatherNewsS0s
SpaceWeatherNews (S0)
——————————–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-ddoh_yFx8
Observers Live #18 – Solar Storm, Pole Shift Accelerating
That’s very interesting thanks.
I was surprised to re-learn some basics on the closer epoch to us the Hallstatt Bronze age period, chiefly how relatively small number of people sustained such “hi tech” and trading civilization back then.
Basically, professional mining and smelting operation in the Alps then distributed ~standardized ingots of industrial metals far away. Where local settlements (instructed) further worked it into the end products such as spear tips/bolts and or even *hi-end luxury products like body armor plates, almost in 1:1 artisan quality to that Homeric Greek centers where it originated (yes themselves also took it over from previous advanced civ like Egypt etc). Basically, confirming very large distance trade and know-how sharing / spreading..
All that taking place years ~1200-800BC across still densely forested Europe Eastern ClubMed..
—
* nowadays if you show out polished up plate armor from Bronze age be it of European or Greek origin and mix it with late Middle Ages tournament plates example – most laymen people won’t even recognized there is 2.5k yrs time difference!
On small clarification, Norman, as I know you love being corrected: Diesel fuel was first used to power an engine almost 133 years ago, on August 10, 1893, when Rudolf Diesel’s initial, single-cylinder “rational heat motor” ran on its own power in Augsburg, Germany.
While the engine was invented in 1892, practical, successful tests of this fuel-based, compression-ignition system occurred between 1893 and 1897.
As for whether any of our “breakthroughs” will deliver our needs, I would agree with Neils Bohr that prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.
Thank you for the post.
When I watched news clips of record holiday travel, I wondered how much longer it would go on.
Thanks Gail!
I keep wondering myself. I tend not to make reservations very far ahead for long-distance trip.
I also figure that taking care of my own health needs to be a top priority. Financial promises are iffy, at best.
“Most researchers model tiny parts of economies, and because of their views are so narrow, they reach misleading or wrong conclusions.”
So true. Excellent insight.
They reach the conclusion their salary depends on. The few that try to float contrary ideas are labelled as nut cases and outliers. This will not turn out well for the current model of IC.
I agree! Universities cannot imagine that their views are wrong.
Peer review tends to perpetuate wrong views.
Even EROEI analyses are guilty of this issue. EROEI works for heavy oil. But it gives totally misleading indications for Wind and Solar. A big issue is that you cannot build wind and solar with the output of wind and solar.
Front end payment for devices such as these require interest payments (or returns on shares of stock). This interest tends to go to the already rich. This tends to make the rich, even richer, and the poor, even poorer. Wind and solar depend on diesel and jet fuel besides critical minerals. They are not really renewable.