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The underlying problems are energy-related
A few years ago, I analyzed the growth of world energy consumption, breaking it down into (a) the growth in energy consumption needed to support the growth in world population, and (b) the growth in energy consumption available to support higher standards of living. This analysis covered the period 1820 to 2020. I found that periods of low growth tended to coincide with wars, depressions, and collapses. This is not surprising in a world economy governed by the laws of physics. Every part of the economy requires adequate energy of appropriate kinds.
In this post, I analyze data for 5-year periods, ending in 2024, to obtain an updated view of recent energy consumption and population trends. My conclusion is that total energy consumption growth in recent years has not been sufficient to forestall major problems. A more detailed analysis reveals that growth in certain vital resources (the diesel+jet fuel part of oil supply, and critical minerals related to electricity production and usage) is particularly problematic.
These findings indicate that the economy is already beginning to hit energy limits. Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.
[1] Figure 2 is a stacked bar chart showing similar indications to Figure 1.
The total of the red and blue segments is the average annual increase in world energy consumption over a particular 10-year period. The blue amounts (usually at the bottom) are those necessary to provide services at the same level as in the past, given the population increase. The red amounts (usually at the top) are determined by subtraction. Large red caps are good, while red caps below the zero line are very bad. They indicate that the per-capita energy supply is declining.
[2] The largest increases in Figure 2 correspond to favorable economic times.
The vertical text in Figure 1 provides examples of how low points in energy consumption have proven to be very bad. In this section, I show that the opposite is also true: High points tend to correspond to very good times economically.
One peak in Figures 1 and 2 coincides with the 1901 to 1910 period. This period corresponds to early electrification and advances in the mechanization of agriculture. It was before 1913 when the United Kingdom hit peak coal, limiting the amount of coal that could be profitably extracted. Germany hit peak hard coal shortly before World War II. After peak coal was reached, less coal was available per capita. Leaders felt the pressure of “not enough coal to go around” and opted for war.
In Figures 1 and 2, rapid energy growth occurred after World War II, during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. The lower peak in the 2001-2010 period coincided with much greater use of coal after China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001. High-wage countries started transferring their industry to China because costs would be lower in two ways: Wage costs were lower, and coal was an inexpensive fuel, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, by transferring industry, including manufacturing and mining, to China, high-wage countries could also lower their own CO2 emissions, as required by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
We would expect the patterns we are seeing in Figures 1 and 2 if the world economy is governed by the laws of physics. The availability of plenty of inexpensive energy, of kinds that match built infrastructure, is what is needed to allow the world economy to grow.
[3] Figure 3 shows more recent world energy data organized by 5-year periods. It shows how small the “red caps” of the types leading to favorable economic outcomes have been in the last decade.
The latest two 5-year periods comprise the years 2015 to 2024. The short red caps on these two 5-year periods mean that the economy is already being squeezed in the direction of not-enough-to go-around.
[4] Viewed on this same basis, diesel and jet fuel supplies are being squeezed even more than the overall supply of energy products.
Diesel and jet fuel are somewhat similar in composition. They are grouped together in some energy reports as “middle distillates.” They are relatively heavy oil products that come out of oil refineries. If there is a shortage of one, there likely is a shortage of the other as well.
Diesel and jet fuel are of concern because, since 2015, there has been an actual shrinkage in the amount of these fuels available relative to population. In fact, every five-year period since the 2000 to 2004 period has shown less growth in diesel and jet fuel than in the overall world energy supply. (Compare Figures 3 and 4.)
The low growth of diesel+jet fuel is particularly concerning because these fuels are essential for international transportation. With too little of these oil types, trade across the Atlantic and Pacific needs to shrink back. The physics of the situation makes tariffs look like an attractive solution for reducing trade.
Another concern is that diesel is essential for food production and transportation. Even if some other types of energy are available in plentiful supply, we cannot get along without food. While wind and solar are popular energy types today, they are not very useful for either international transport or for operating modern agricultural equipment.
[5] The underlying problem is that populations tend to outgrow their resource bases, including energy supplies.
The issue of the world not being able to support endlessly rising human population is an issue that no politician, auto maker, or economist wants to mention. The standard work-around is to show energy supplies without using an adjustment to a per-capita basis. This tends to make the energy situation look much better than it really is. Figure 6 is an example of such a chart.
Figure 6 emphasizes how modest the recent add-ons to the fossil fuel supply really are. These add-ons are made possible by fossil fuels; they would tend to disappear if fossil fuels were to disappear. Nuclear, which is the largest of the add-ons, requires both uranium and fossil fuels. The category “Wind+Solar” is the tiny green stripe at the top of Figure 6. In 2024, Wind+Solar amounted to 2.8% of world energy supply.
[6] It is easy to make electricity look like a growth area that can continue its pattern forever.
Figure 7 is a world electricity chart that, like Figure 6, is not on a per-capita basis.
There are a few details that are easy to miss:
(a) Current electricity production is quite small compared to the total energy supply. As counted by the Energy Institute, electricity amounts to only about 20% of total energy, varying by year and by part of the world. It is already incorporated in Figure 6.
(b) Almost all the non-fossil fuel part of the energy supply (“Add-Ons”) is electricity. In Figure 6, the only type of non-fossil energy shown that is not electricity is biofuels. These are mostly ethanol and biodiesel.
(c) Another detail that is easy to miss is the fact that the growth in the world’s electricity supply, as shown in Figure 7, has been almost exclusively outside the Advanced Economies–that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Advanced Economies group includes the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and several other countries.
Figure 8 shows the growth in electricity generation separately for the Advanced Economies and the Other Economies. The chart shows that generation of electricity by the Advanced Economies grew until 2007 but flattened after that date. Electricity generation by the Other Economies has grown the entire time since 1985. The rate of electricity production growth of Other Economies became noticeably more rapid after China joined the WTO in 2001.
Also, population growth since 1985 has disproportionately taken place in Other Economies, as contrasted with Advanced Economies.
[7] In the Advanced Economies, electricity production has recently been falling on a per capita basis, making a shift to greater electrification seem difficult.
A major issue is that the Advanced Economies are already seeing their electricity supplies per capita declining as shown on Figure 10 below. This is true for all five of the selected economies. Some of the lower consumption is due to efficiency improvements, but some is the result of the offshoring of jobs and industries to low-wage countries.
In comparison, electricity production per capita of other economies, with typically lower wages than Advanced Economies and often accompanied by more rapid population growth, has tended to rise, as shown on Figure 11.
The four “Other Economies” are less similar to each other than the five Advanced Economies. But what is striking is that they all have shown growth in per-capita electricity production since 1999. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s electricity production had risen to about the per-capita level of the US’s electricity production. By 2024, China’s per-capita electricity production had surpassed that of both the EU and the UK. Russia was part of the Soviet Union before the latter collapsed in 1991. Once Russia’s economy had started recovering from the collapse, about 1999, its per-capita electricity production also began to rise.
[8] Other issues are also making a continued shift to electrification appear difficult, particularly for the Advanced Economies.
Trying to work around using fossil fuels leads to the need for more specialized minerals to produce high tech electrical goods and electricity transmission. The problem faced by Advanced Economies is that they produce practically none of these minerals; they must import them. The US has a long list of minerals it considers critical.
Some of these minerals aren’t rare in the earth’s crust. Part of the problem is the lack of industrial capacity in Advanced Economies today, as industry has been moved overseas to reduce costs and local CO2 emissions. For example, the US used to be a major producer of aluminum, but this production has dwindled; other countries, including China, can produce aluminum at lower cost.
Another issue is that China produces the majority of quite a few of these minerals. The US, and probably the other Advanced Economies, had planned to buy what they needed on the world market. Now, production is not keeping up with the amount the world could easily use. In 2025, China announced export restrictions on some minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. It has become clear that if Advanced Economies want to have adequate supplies of high-demand minerals (including silver, copper, platinum, rare earth minerals, and uranium, among others), they need to start producing them themselves.
Diesel is used in extracting many of these minerals. If diesel is in short supply, that adds another layer of problems. All these issues may lie behind President Trump’s interest in Greenland.
[9] We don’t hear about these issues partly because academic researchers live in ivory towers, and partly because politicians don’t dare explain the issues to voters.
Part of the problem is that economists don’t understand how tightly the various parts of the world economy are interconnected through the laws of physics. Economists tend to believe that if there is a shortage, prices will rise, and these higher prices will solve nearly all problems. This is not necessarily the case. Buyers cannot purchase more than they can afford. Prices may spike temporarily and then fall back. Production of fossil fuels or minerals may end because prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, for producers to depend upon the higher prices for the long term.
In the case of a shortage, most people assume that the only change the economy will make is in prices. However, the economy is tightly interconnected. It can move production to a different part of the world, where wages and energy costs are lower. An indirect result, in the country losing jobs, may be more wage and wealth disparity. The US seems to be experiencing this issue now, with fewer young people being able to find a job that pays well.
Needless to say, politicians aren’t willing to admit, “We have difficulties for which we can see no solution.” Even leaders of universities are reluctant to suggest that there might be major problems ahead. They don’t want to frighten students or their parents. University officials want all problems to be ones their students can work on, with the hope of solving them in the next few years.
[10] What is happening now is similar to the outcome of a game of musical chairs, when there is one fewer chair than the number of players.
In the game of musical chairs, players walk around a group of chairs until the music stops. At the end of each round, one chair is removed, leaving one fewer chair than the number of players. In the next round, the remaining players all scramble for the chairs available, which often leads to small fights over who gets a chair. This not-enough-to-go-around problem explains the poor relations we see today among countries and political parties. It is also the underlying reason for the interest in imposing tariffs and in bombing other countries.
Financial markets tend to perform well during periods of economic growth. However, if certain kinds of essential resources are in short supply, this will tend to hold back growth. Debt defaults and falling stock markets could result. For these reasons, problems in financial markets may be ahead.
Major governmental changes may be ahead. Representative governments require more energy than simpler types of organizations, such as dictatorships. Furthermore, citizens do not like disorder; they may want to overthrow leaders who seem to allow too much disorder. They may vote them out of office or even try to assassinate them. The problem of resource inadequacy is structural, however. Getting rid of a particular leader doesn’t necessarily help the situation.
Everywhere in the world, at least part of today’s problem is that there are not enough jobs available that pay well. Economists have told us to expect high prices if there are shortages. In a way, not having enough jobs that pay well is the opposite problem. But from a physics standpoint, the result is the same. Only a few people can afford many of the goods that are available. The economists’ misinterpretation of what is going wrong further confuses people’s understanding of our current situation.
Mainstream media needs to cater to advertisers. Because of this issue, we cannot expect them to tell us what is happening. That task seems to fall to bloggers, like me. I try to write an article approximately every month. I hope that the graphs and other figures I have presented in this article will help readers understand why we are currently seeing more types of disruptions, such as tariffs and bombings.
A WSJ article on trying to fix the mineral problem, at least a bit. Of course, building the new plant will likely require imported metals from China. So, whether it really can be done is uncertain.
Can America’s Mineral Wealth Be Unlocked Without Smelters?
Glencore’s former recycling chief is leading an effort to commercialize a breakthrough in metals processing
AI summary:
-Valor, a new company, launched to extract critical minerals from waste and ores using electrochemical liquid-liquid extraction.
-The new metallurgy breakthrough avoids the massive energy and chemicals consumed by traditional smelting and refining methods.
-Valor is building its first processing facility in Houston and has received funding from venture-capital firms and the National Science Foundation.
A new company launched by the former head of Glencore’s recycling business and two University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign scientists says it can separate metals and rare earths from electronic waste and mined ores without the massive amounts of energy and chemicals consumed in traditional smelting and refining methods.
The company, Valor, is an attempt to commercialize a breakthrough in metallurgy called electrochemical liquid-liquid extraction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcbYB6Vfrt0&t=13s
Texas Lake DROPS 89% In 24 Hours – 500,000+ People In Danger
123,792 views Mar 9, 2026 #CorpusChristi #WaterCrisis #Texas
Corpus Christi water crisis — the Texas city running out of water in 2026.
Corpus Christi reservoir levels hit historic lows as the city faces total water depletion.
One of the largest cities in Texas is months away from a water emergency that could shut down refineries supplying jet fuel to Texas airports, halt crude oil exports from the nation’s top petroleum port, and force half a million people into unprecedented water cuts — all after a decade of failed desalination plans and industrial expansion that consumed the region’s supply
Doesn’t look good…
Part of the problem seems to be a plastics factory operated by Exxon Mobil that is allowed to use too much water, based on a desalination plant that was never built.
Here’s something you all, Gail were are looking at ANOTHER crisis critical organic material.. RUBBER, natural
Very strategic and looking at collapse…
This is the natural disaster to worry about
Veritasium
20.4M subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFXLZ7FEJc4&t=85s
A huge thanks to Professor James Busfield, Dr. Katrina Cornish, and Dr. Judit Puskas
We’re incredibly grateful to Toby Samples and the team at ARDL for their time and expertise.
Thanks also to Joe Jackson, Dr. Kevin Krause, Dr. Peter Polyak, Donald Shultz, Professor Robert Weiss for all their help on the project.
not to worry—
texas is big on prayers
“I’m calling it: there will be ENERGY LOCKDOWNS across Europe starting in approx 2-3 months time. Governments, to allow the US use of their military assets, will order their citizens to STAY AT HOME or use only walking & bicycles for travel to “SAVE OIL TO WIN THE WAR.”
https://x.com/robinmonotti/status/2029827313471295678
I would not be surprised by this.
My husband and I are planning a trip that will involve a cruise around the outer edge of the UK, starting near the end of May, and returning on June 5. I booked this trip not too long ago, thinking that perhaps the area we would be visiting would be far enough away from any fighting that the trip would be safe from disruption.
But now, it is easy to visualize disruption. For example, the airline tickets we have already purchased may be a problem. We fly back from London. Hopefully, London will have enough jet fuel to send flights from London to Atlanta on June 5. And there could be disruption in the cities we visit along the coast. Our night-time accommodations are always on the boat, but we will be visiting various cities along the edge during the day.
I hope your vacation goes well. At least you got your tickets before the diesel price moon beamed.
which bits of uk are you sailing around Gail—May June is the best time
have a lovely trip
I understand we will be stopping in
The Shetland Islands
Aberdeen, Scotland
Edinburgh, Scotland
Orkney Islands, Kirkwall, Scotland
Ullapool, Scotland
Belfast, Ireland
Liverpool, England
Holyhead, Wales
Dublin, Ireland
Dover, England
London, England
We start in Bergen, Norway. We don’t spend a lot of time in England, compared to Scotland.
lol no—apart from dover and liverpool, you touch england hardly at all.
dublin is a great city though—youll love it there.
We will spend a little time in London at the end.
thats goood—i thought they were whizzing you straight on the plane…
Dover is a hard sell, but the castle is impressive.
just dont come ashore in a rubber dinghy at dover Gail
You’ll be stepping off the boat in all four historic countries of the British Isles, so it will be quite a varied trip.
Bert Jansch mentions Ullapool in this song:
Last night as I lay sleeping, a dream it came to me
I thought I heard a piper play the sweetest melody
People gathered round a’ dancing and singing so merrily
They’re all singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
Singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
From the busy heart of Glasgow to Lochranza by the sea
O’er the water to Kintyre, the prettiest place you’ll ever see
To the pubs and bars of Oban, they’re all proud of their old country
They’re all singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
Singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
On the road to Drumnadrochit, there’s music everywhere
For the piper plays for Nessie a sweet and tender air
Through Glengarry’s running rivers, cascading to the sea
To the tranquillity of Ullapool, ah now that’s Scotland to me
Come wild and windy weather, Caledonia ever free
When the fiddle plays from Shetland, they heard the piper’s song
They came o’er the sea to join him, they danced and they sang along
From the granite city southward, on the road to bonny Dundee
They’re all singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
Singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
Now if you ever come to Scotland, ever come to visit my home
You can hear the piper playing, standing all alone
For he plays from Edinburgh Castle, that looks out to the sea
He’ll have you singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
Singing and dancing, Caledonia ever free
Nice music! Thanks.
In a way, I prefer a bus tour. You are able to get out and travel from place to place, and stop at local restaurants and stay in local hotels. A tour guide tells you a little about the area.
Maybe next time, if there is a next time.
“After 2008, regulations pushed risky lending OUT of banks and INTO private credit. The sector ballooned to $3 trillion. But these funds make 5-7 year loans while promising investors quarterly liquidity. That works until everyone wants out at once. Which is exactly what’s happening.“?
https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2031383923612099034?s=20
I am wondering if life insurers have somewhat gotten into this mess as well. They try to search for high yield, and they hope that withdrawals will be slow and can be managed. But it seems like this could change. And if the real return changes from a big positive to a big negative, this could also be a problem.
From a chemical importer in India .
“Offers withdrawn and no new offers for exports from S Korean majors! “https://x.com/JoshiEien/status/2031634404473548923/photo/1
https://x.com/JoshiEien/status/2031634404473548923/photo/1
And now banks are legitimate targers
https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/2031669024057135593
More closures and slow downs
In Malaysia, Pengerang Refining (Prefchem), a joint venture between Petronas and Saudi Aramco, has shut down its 300,000-barrel-per-day crude unit and plans further shutdowns of derivative units due to feedstock shortages. It is also anticipated to close its 1.2 million-ton-per-year steam cracker this week. Sources indicate that over 70% of Prefchem’s crude imports last year came through the Strait of Hormuz.
Singapore Refining Co (SRC) has reduced refinery runs at its Jurong Island site to approximately 60% and is expected to maintain these lower levels through the month. SRC has also cut or delayed March naphtha deliveries. At the same location, ExxonMobil has reduced crude runs to about 50% or lower, down from around 80% or higher. Kpler ship-tracking data reveals that approximately 65% of the refinery’s crude this year has been sourced via the Strait of Hormuz. Singapore petrochemical firm PCS and Aster Chemicals and Energy also declared force majeure.
In Taiwan, Formosa Petrochemical Corp has issued a force majeure notice for certain petrochemical supplies. The company’s crackers are still operational at around 70%, but shutting one down will be considered if naphtha stocks are insufficient.
Mitsui Chemicals in Japan has started reducing ethylene production due to declining naphtha supplies, and Mitsubishi Chemical has also cut ethylene output. Sumitomo Chemical Asia issued a force majeure notice for methyl methacrylate production after its feedstock supplier, PCS, declared force majeure.
Bahrain’s Bapco Energies and Thailand’s Rayong Olefins have declared force majeure.
In China, Wanhua Chemical declared force majeure to its Middle East customers, while Shell’s joint venture with CNOOC plans to shut a steam cracker due to feedstock disruptions. Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp shut a unit, and Fujian Refining and Petrochemical Co also closed a crude unit. Additionally, China has urged refiners to halt new fuel export contracts.
India’s Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals shut a crude unit due to oil shortages.
South Korea’s Yeochun NCC has reduced output and declared force majeure.
Indonesia’s Chandra Asri has declared force majeure on all contracts.
Lastly, Vietnam’s Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical requested that the government prioritize domestic
Wow! A long list, all in India and the Far East.
South Korean petrochemicals are no longer being exported.
“The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. It is selectively open. And the only country it is open for is China. CNBC confirmed on 11 March, citing Tanker Trackers satellite data corroborated by Kpler, that Iran has exported at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil to China“?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2031612131452530742?s=20
This is an important point. China benefits from the oil being shipped from Iran. The prices are higher, so Iran benefits as well. I saw somewhere that oil exports are one third of GDP in Iran. This ratio could be higher, now with higher oil prices. Taxes on this help support the war effort.
Actuarial Warfare: How Seven Insurance Letters Closed the World’s Most Critical Chokepoint and Why Markets Are Mispricing Duration by 300%
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance
I agree. Lack of reinsurance is a huge issue.
Posted this before but the last one is good.
Should check this all the time : https://no01.substack.com/ to get the latest updated
https://no01.substack.com/p/the-opening-salvo
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-1-day-two
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-2-nobody-to-call
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-3-no1-left-to-call
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-4-paint-by-missiles
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-5-everything-must-go
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-6-7-the-grind-goes-on
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-8-his-will-be-done
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-9-the-digital-age
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-10-war-in-aisle-seven
From March 10:
British Airways cancelled all flights to Abu Dhabi until later this year. Not next week. Not next month. The rest of the year.
Abu Dhabi is the capital city of the United Arab Emirates. Also,
Meanwhile, Iran is planning to impose duties on ships transiting the strait. Not a blockade. A tollbooth. Freedom of navigation, that sacred principle the US Navy has been patrolling the world to defend since 1945, just got a price tag. Fly the right flag, pay the fee. Fly the wrong one, don’t bother.
Also:
The suppression playbook perfected for silver is now being recycled to control oil. Same mechanics. Well-timed interventions at technical inflection points. Narrative management dressed as market information. Different commodity, same toolbox. . .
The US Treasury projected a $15 billion buyback of its own debt today. The largest in history. Amazon launched an eleven-tranche, $25 billion bond offering. Salesforce: $25 billion. The bond market is being held together by corporate issuance and government intervention on a day when missiles are hitting refineries. The plumbing is groaning all around. . .
The S&P is close to a record high. Meltdown probability sits at 35% according to the permabulls’ own models. Corporate insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in months. Porsche profits collapsed 98%. VW is firing 50,000 people. Kohl’s dropped 10%. The real casualties of this war are showing up in earnings calls, not press conferences.
You can add banking to the ever lengthening list, as they are now fleeing(all of them)
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/standard-chartered-evacuate-dubai-staff-over-iran-retaliatio
Then there’s these war targets
https://x.com/orikron/status/2031742052913057966
Oman has now made their position official and in the “kingdoms” cash is the true king again(if reports are true). They’ll fall like dominos soon enough(China sent emissaries to them all a day or two ago).
Drivers in England issued urgent warning to ‘stop non-essential journeys’
AA president Edmund King, has led the warnings for motorists.
Instead, Mr King said road users “can consider cutting out some non-essential journeys and changing their driving style to conserve fuel.”
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/motoring/motoring-news/drivers-england-issued-urgent-warning-33556933
3 days ago even after the war the IEA was saying glut , glut , glut . Now from 3 days they are saying SPR , SPR , SPR .
Good point! Things change quickly.
EU admits nuclear blunder
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged that the bloc’s nuclear phase-out was a “strategic mistake”
The EU’s decades-long retreat from nuclear energy was a “strategic mistake,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has admitted, stating the bloc must now rebuild the industry.
Speaking at the Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris on Tuesday, von der Leyen noted that nuclear’s share of EU electricity production has collapsed from one-third in 1990 to just 15% today.
“In retrospect, we see that it was a strategic mistake for Europe to turn its back on a reliable and affordable source of low-emission power,” she declared.
Von der Leyen has announced a €200 million ($230 million) guarantee fund to support small modular reactors (SMRs), aiming for operational deployment by 2030. “The nuclear race is on,” she said, claiming that “Europe has everything it needs to lead.”
Her remarks come as the escalating situation in the Middle East spurred by the unprovoked US-Israeli attack on Iran has sent global oil and gas prices surging. Simultaneously, the EU has continued to struggle with the consequences of its decision to sever energy ties with Russia following the Ukraine conflict, as well as its controversial green energy policies.
In Germany, which shuttered its last three nuclear plants in 2023, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has similarly condemned the phase-out a “serious strategic mistake,” noting in January that Berlin now faces “the most expensive energy transition in the entire world.” A recent JPMorgan analysis found that industrial power prices in Germany are now triple those of the US and China.
A Deloitte report commissioned by the European chemical industry also found that 83% of EU competitiveness indicators are stagnating or deteriorating, with the chemical sector alone having lost 20,000 jobs to factory closures.
https://www.rt.com/news/634384-eu-nuclear-energy-blunder/
Of course, there is also the detail of whether there would have been enough enriched uranium if they had, in fact, remained open. I think that was a hidden issue in their closures.
The NPPs closures were 99.9% political and “RE” lobby induced affair.. That’s what “Ursula” had to admit now.
Hence the PV and wind build up in recent decades at gigantic money outflows to Asian producers.
This was backstopped (grid) firstly by legacy-phasing out coal and then via newish natgas pipeline / shipped LNG to powerplants.
If the demand outlook was stable (as in future decades of demand) France would boost up production and summon partners in Africa ahead in ~2000s. The enriched fuel could be also bought additionally from wherever China, Kazakhstan, Russia, .. or even from the US up to certain date (~2010s)..
BeeBee’s made lots of friends.
https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/dd/45/52/dd455260f4a78f4278431acf8259c9c3.mp4
Boom Boom Tel Aviv and the Gulf States
https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/d9/12/99/d9129922f242e57fc19b7f72964a44ee.mp4
Doesn’t look good for Israel. At least the lights seem to be on.
Fox News reporting Israel is getting hammered.
Iran’s missiles flattening Tel Aviv from Douyin (Chinese Tiktok). No censorship by Israel on Douyin.
The video was recorded on mobile by Chinese workers in Israel and uploaded to Chinese Tiktok.
https://x.com/i/status/2031285716869960037
Thanks Dem that’s the kind of video we’ve been waiting for.
Fake
Disturbing!
Israel launches ‘bomb shelter dating’ app to introduce singles hiding during airstrikes
https://realmwire.com/israel-launches-bomb-shelter-dating-app-to-introduce-singles-hiding-during-airstrikes-amid-iran-war/
Everyone bought their 50 pack of Bic lighters on Amazon?
Long ago and it was 100 pack.
Dayum. You smokin the green stuff or the brown stuff?
Refer to Robert Mitchum’s arrest.
If you have prior head injury history ala knocked out ~boxer perhaps it might heal / help a bit or any other serious health condition. But most normal people get only schizo attacks from doing that stuff, especially the bought one..
Depends on the underlying psychological state of the person. Except for a brief period of years when the League cracked down on it because it was having image problems with white people, about three quarters of NBA players have always played basketball high because it’s a performance enhancer, which is something I can also personally attest to.
My angle was just issuing the warning about contemporary varieties (lab) manipulated into yielding way higher psycho effects than say natural herbs decades ago..
Do you think “it” happens tonight?
What’s that? Izzy breaking out the nuke tonight? Or bombing an NPP? Is that the word? Fitz would be a better person to ask than me I figure. I pretty much just do here and ZH and wherever you guys link to, and the astral plane just ain’t that giving lol, to me anyway.
I just listened to a National Public Radio show called “Today Explained” on my way to cleaning toilets, and the whole show was a crash course on oil commodity systems theory for 12 year old level minds. It suddenly looks like maybe after the Big Nuclear Scare (BNS) is over the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda is going to go public as if it’s just being born and isn’t seven years old already. It’s probably too early to say that but it kinda makes sense for a Phase 2 hospice situation that might last five years. If the Hand is gonna parlay the BNS into a global nuclear decommissioning scheme then I guess it does have to make a sixth-grade-level systems case for risk mitigation given the grid instability that everyone will be all too far with at that point.
too familiar with
I envy yours cushy on the ground type of job, in fact I’m still stuck at .jr assistant position to municipal subdivision provisional team#5 leader – in practice sterilizing male rats in the sewer system ( shifts: 1am – 7am, free weekends as they get aggressive ) ..
/sarc off
—
As perhaps debated already – I find the option of BNS into further decommissioning effort as serious hypothesis.
For one thing I was very surprised how smooth it was during that previous round of down blending on both sides (US-RU) into the NPP fuel.. past few decades.
So, we reached a good “mellow point” by now in which nuclear winter would “only” ~crush civ not higher life itself on the planet.
That being said, I’m smelling serious pre-positioning towards more unstable or even crashing petrodollar system in the near future. That would on BOTH lite / severe options likely mean acute disruptions in global trade. While, and that is the chief bummer, the US is still trying to re-shore lot of industries, so it’s doesn’t make much sense, only by the bottom case they really mis-calculated on the Iranian regime BIGLY (not necessarily military wise but rather unpredictability crazy-wize).
The world is turning back into (meta)regional blocks setting again.
Are you only getting the feeling of a petrodollar crash because everyone else is getting that ‘feeling’, or is it your own true-feeling divination? Because, as you know, my true-feeling divination is that everyone is being herded into that ‘feeling’.’If the petrodollar system collapses then 95% of us here are dead within a few months of that collapse. If, instead, the petrodollar deflates, that kind of fast dieoffs won’t happen.
My feeling comes out of the above structural analysis that I have explored here adequately. What analysis does your feeling come from?
My position is momentarily, weakening petrodollar >70% prob vs. <30% nearing abrupt end.
The weakening thesis is based on the already mentioned re-grouping into regional blocks. US takes VZ and Greenland (+here I'm speculating it's not only for base of hypersonic interceptors or rarearths, I expect massive natgas perhaps oil fields "finds" as well).
The bottom line being in (large/domain)regional settings, lot of globally quoted exchange suddenly files under "barter" like exchanges in which whatever global mechanism (petrodollar) no longer useful.
Obviously, the RoW continues to pull large demand for $; ME is now weakened, and EU continues its slide as well.
So, despite all problems US pedestal continues strong enough for some slightly limited form of petrodollar system into the future.
Simply, even under triangle of doom there is a room for uncanny pecking order: extra poverty for everybody else, while merely mild poverty for the US. Good deal if you can keep it for next few decades extra.
The reason for herding people into the dollar hyperinflation narrative is super simple: it keeps people spending; in fact, it gets people to increase the velocity of their spending.
The whole dollar hyperinflation narrative is in service of delaying deflationary collapse. That is why Steve Ludlum named his blog Economic Undertow.
I can say, with high confidence, it will not happen last night.
From my reading and if the squatters are getting hit as much as claimed, the US is now blind and defenceless in the region, which would possibly explain the spike in surveillance drones disappearing out of the skies around Iran(who absolutely, definitely have no air defence) and the fact that the US has told South Korea, “your on your own” as they shipped everything out, in a desperate attempt to replace the destroyed.
Iran have now apparently stated, that any ship that can convince a US warship to escort them through Hormuz, will be guaranteed safe passage, no matter their flag. I know that they have said a naval suprise is coming, so it looks like their egging Trump on.
Total loss(leave the region and leave the squatters to their fate), or the big bomb are looking more and more like the only choices, for those backed into a corner. Why have Iran, because it is Iran that has manoeuvred the situation to this point, chosen this route?
Iran has been preparing for decades and understands that a spider’s web, despite appearance, is weak and so should be built to collapse on and entangle its victim.
It understands the rigid web of the enemy and has lit it up(both ways), whilst offering those caught in the web a way out, or death. “Peace for all, or for none” makes the choice clear and whilst no one was looking Azerbaijan has come grovelling back(even the Kurds don’t seem to have the dodo appetite of old). Big bomb will just make the hole deeper, whilst shattering the the last of those, oh so strong, but oh so brittle threads, for thousands of miles.
“Dear brethren and beloved people of Palestine, I tell you: the Israel that owns nuclear weapons and has the strongest air force in the region is weaker than a spider’s web.”
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
Iran is proving to be the Retiarius Spider
Quote and thoughts of spider’s courtesy of indi
https://indi.ca/the-spider-not-the-web/
The new leader will speak soon(hours/days?) and this is a man that has just witnessed his father, mother, brother, wife and daughter slaughtered.
I don’t think it will be good news.
Also from the link:
Please understand, the destruction of these bases and infrastructure is permanent. ‘America’ cannot repair a bridge in Baltimore, close to their capital. They will never rebuild their bases in Bahrain, close to Iran. And anyways, they’d need China’s help to do it, and China’s not selling (rare earths) rope to hang themselves. Furthermore, ‘America’ is not in control of the earth to build anything on. As Iran’s Ebrahim Zolfighari, Khatam Al-Anbiyaa spokesman has said, “From now on, anything built in the name of the enemy, similar to these bases, facilities, and equipment, will be destroyed again and again with subsequent crushing blows.”
Half the THAADS in the world have been destroyed(4/8). They take a decade to build and large amounts of stuff that only comes from China.
A now blinded defender, that turned its back when required to stand resolute, isn’t a great look(compare with the average Iranian out on the streets despite being bombed).
“Subcontract your defense to us, Iran can say to the Arabs because, who is the honorable? Who is the robber, thief, and liar in the region: us Persians or the White Man!”
I could imagine Pakistan(close partner with China and been getting closer with Iran) wanting a bit of that(potentially involving Saudi Arabia and there goes the whole region). Russia would not be unhappy and where would that place India.
Iran is being methodical and China quietly smiles(no one is attacking the most advanced surveillance ship in the world and it has been parked right in the middle of it all, the whole time, sharing in real time).
https://cloudwoods1.substack.com/p/new-paradigm-the-china-iran-nexus
I was near sure, your predicted BNS activities would have happened last night, luckily they didn’t…
item in todays paper about the likelihood of a ship/drone attack on the usa coast….
didnt need to be a fortune teller to see that coming
Nice.That must have been fun. I definitely think we’re in that window. Who knows how they’re structuring it. They might tease us, they might surprise us out of the blue, or they might make it obvious. I guess it depends on the following-on elements of their post- historical storyline.
I guess I do get around a little bit when I’m at the jobby job with the headphones on. One of today’s moneyoverhistory videos could speak to your question. I should have asked if you meant the US might nuke rather than Israel, because really this is Trump’s war because it’s an American coup. He’s the Fall Guy. The video talks about US doomsday planes being highly active, which are responsible for nuclear attack coordination. It’s a good 14min strategic analysis of that potentiality.
https://youtu.be/pRty2idlBPM?si=ntTw9sl_1EIwdOs6
Thanks – the (LLM-generated) video says those E-6B Mercuries need to fly on regular schedule(s), to remain operational.
Suggestion – unless you properly protect yourself (on your end), that “si=ntTw9sl_1EIwdOs6” part is your unique, personal tracker (so that YT and others know, whom you possibly shared the video with, unless your recipients know how to sanitize the links (with extra work and stress)).
https://youtu.be/pRty2idlBPM or even pRty2idlBPM is enough to find the video you link, thanks again!
I gather then that after I copy and paste I should delete back through to and including the question mark. Thanks. I still use Google exclusively. Don’t give a damn about what they know, they’ve paid me a visit already and as far as I know we’re good.
Recently I pulled out 2x, 50 packs from 15 year shortage and the flints had all disintegrated.
Redundancy is the key.
Were those Bics?
No, not BiCs. Cheap no-brand prison-labor spare ones, that I got from AliExpress more than a decade ago. Lesson learned.
That’s good. Yeah I didn’t consider buying a 100 pack of the lighters that were like seventeen cents a pop.
What’s the point of buying all of these lighters?
Starting fires in the wood stoves for the rest of my life. Burn piles. Sharing probably…
Educational influence of the (original) Selco’s recollections of his survival for more than 1 year in that city under siege back in early 1990s somewhere in former Yugoslavia (we all supposed, that was Sarajevo in BiH – but he had never named it openly). In short – everybody was (and still is) smoking tobacco there, tobacco and cigarettes were very useful means of monetary exchange during the collapse. Cigarettes do not store well, by the way (while properly packaged tobacco does, or so I’ve heard..) Besieged citizens massively grown yet another plant (beside Tobacco) during that besieged summer. Winters are reasonably cold in EE (think IL/OH here, or so) – means of making fire to keep warm and boil water (for coffee!) were and are very life-saving. Not only old, but any parquet floors, furntiture and books were burned up (i.e. everything dry and readily kindleable, while live tree wood needs to be dried for half-a-year before becoming suitable for burning). Selco himself, beside his PA/nurse skills, supplemented his living (or rather – surviving) by refilling the empty lighters of his neighbors’ and neaby market strangers’ (Selco was lucky/intelligent enough to get a larger (a few gallons, I’m guessing – probably from his demolished hospital, but I’d never asked) butane tank with that special hose/narrow nozzle adapter for pocket lighters refilling – nobody there had something like that, but everybody would peruse those pocket lighters day and night there…).
Good old selco. Selco days were when we were all still hot from the GFC. Funny he was the butane man. The collapse couldn’t have been that bad if he was able to maintain control of that tank all by his little old self after word got around that he leveraging it. What was the nearest gang doing, rubbing sticks together?
Any good reasons not to buy Karoon Energy or Santos on the Aussie exchange?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/KAR:ASX?window=MAX
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/STO:ASX?window=MAX
Reasonable (Santos) and good (Karoon) P/E by western standards, upside on oil and gas, not in the Middle East, low/stable debt … ?
I really don’t know.
With respect to Santos, there is an awfully lot of LNG in the works. Futures prices have suggested that more LNG capacity is being added than can be absorbed. There is a need to have storage at the receiving end, or LNG needs to be used right away. This seems to be a problem, as well.
With respect to Karoon energy, it talks a lot about its buyback program, and its share price is only $1.85 per share, which is strange. But it is oil, if I understand what I read.
Alexander gives his latest daily overview of the situation, and the headlines don’t look good for Trump.
As someone else put it, ‘So far, Trump has only succeeded in killing a school of 7 year old girls, replacing Khamenei with Khamenei & getting the Strait of Hormuz closed…’
> Iran Debacle; US Officials Tell Trump End War; Trump Calls Putin Begs Help, Tough Talks; Iran Defiant
Interesting. Tapping oil reserves is harder than it looks; countries want to hold on to them. Some of them are privately owned.
Something decisive has to happen to turn the situation around. $20 billion is the amount in the insurance scheme. Probably way too low. Not clear that Congress would fund this.
US navy would not be able to unblock the Straight of Hormuz.
Saudi Aramco is working on exporting more of its oil through the Red Sea, hopes to get to 70%. But even losing 30% of Saudi oil would be too much, when combined with the loss of oil from the other countries with inadequate storage.
Trying to secure the big export island in Iran might escalate the situation further.
Israel seems to be short of weapons, but Iran continues to attack Israel.
Iran says that its strikes have been effective in emptying US bases near Iran.
Now Iran can be more selective in the targets it strikes. Now using bigger missiles, since there is less chance of its missiles being shot down by Israel.
Netanyahu is understanding the war is not going well. Trump looking for an off-ramp. Open-ended war has no upsides.
President Trump called President Putin, yesterday. Russians have issued a summary of the talk. The government that initiated the call (Trump) came begging. Talked about both Iran (first) and then Ukraine.
Zelensky now wants talks. He is losing weapons, because weapons have been moved to Iran. Businesslike and frank (contentious) talks. Probably was a contentious talk. Putin and Trump meeting was “constructive.” Concerned that US tried to kill Putin on Dec. 29, 2025. Haven’t spoken since.
Today’s call was an hour. Also contentious. Trump says, in effect, “When I call, please speak to me.”
Putin thinks this war is a terrible mistake. Russia is taking Iran’s side. Russia is in a position to mediate. Putin might be able to help with an off-ramp. This only goes to minute 57.
Ok it’s taken me awhile but I’m finally ready to make my oil price call. Don’t laugh. I’m lowballing this mutha while everyone else gets high: this civilization will never see a $125 or higher barrel spot price for more than 72 hours. That’s my call. I figure that yesterday’s jawboning down was the Hand telling us that that’s all this old girl has left in her, a measly $120 before the wheels immediately fall off. Which makes perfect sense to me when you consider the 2008 spike and also extrapolate-out the 2014 Triangle of Doom price mechanics, and adjust it for inflation. That’s the economic undertow. This world is so goddamn broke we can have 30pc OECD inflation and barrel prices still settle around $60 but even then would prefer to be lower, because any higher is unaffordable in the medium term. So the oil industry health just continues to erode. $125 is the new $200. The other day I said that this Big Nuclear Scare isn’t a feathering mechanism itself (it’s a sledgehammer) but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have an in-built feathering mechanism for self-regulation; as the carefully orchestrated set-piece it is, it goes without saying that it has feathering mechanisms.. And look how far oil price crashed. All the way back down. That was nuts. That’s the tell right there.
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-naphtha-heart-attack-why-120
Steven wrote about this yesterday.
Economically speaking, it follows Gail’s graph where there’s “prices too high for consumers” vs “prices too low for producers”. It’s a tug of war where, in my view, consumers can never win without financial manipulation by the government because producer prices are grounded in physics, and you can’t escape that.
That’s why there has been manipulation against rising commodity prices since forever, and they do that mainly with inflation (monetary expansion).
That’s my rationale, before the final deflationary death spiral, there will be a mandatory inflationary spike, which will cause both the destruction of demand and of producers’ margins.
But who knows now.
Steven pointed an undeniable fact: things aren’t just physics or economics now, it’s not about the end of the war either, they did the unthinkable and literally destroyed indispensable billion-dollar vital infrastructes… There’s no coming back from this.
Thanks, great link, I’m not familiar with him. He’s got a heck of a lot of systems dynamics laid out there. At the end he’s essentially saying what I’ve been saying, which is that the petrodollar cannot hyperinflate (or inflate any further, really) or chaotic collapse happens. A minor failing is that he buys into the controlled opposition narrative that the Trump admin is just failing with their own primitive systems analysis, which is merely the Hand’s political cover narrative, but that’s to be expected. He also appears to overstate the damage done to oil infrastructure, as far as I’m aware of that physical war damage anyway, but maybe what he’s really saying is that the naptha blockages are the damages because those are like blood clots for which maybe there’s no thinners or surgery. If I’m not mistaken the implications of his analysis do seem to imply a chaotic collapse is coming which of course is possible but doesn’t fit with the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda narrative, so something has to give. Either the Hand sidesteps/feathers/performs surgery, on this snowballing dynamic or the Hand doesn’t exist, or his systems analysis isn’t quite right. I like his echoing of my oil price call with his “ghost signal.” And that’s a great term for it. Or, I should say, my echoing of the ghost signal since his article was from yesterday.
But, as briefly discussed also below, 2008 was different. Specifically, back then a lot of electricity was still produced burning oil. Today virtually no oil, except perhaps a few small islands, is used. So OK oil not above 125, but will coal/natgas rise well above 2008? I think so, and that impacts the economy (although not directly the drilling industry). (there is also the work from home phenomenon, but we are talking diesel mostly)
Oh yeah, 2008 was very different. 2008 was organic . This is a sledgehammer. Seems to me that since coal and gas are mostly purchased with dollars on the global market then those price spike dynamics generally should act similarly in dollar terms shouldn’t they? Which is what we’ve been seeing so far.
Which is to say drb that the great currencies bifurcation is drawing near. Dollar and dollar-pegged (if any) deflations on the one side and high-to-hyperinflations on the other. When fossil fuels are largely purchased in petrodollars, and the petrodollar deflates because there are fewer units of fossil fuels, the dollar rapidly gains in value relative to non-pegged currencies which requires that other currency to chase dollars with an increased number of units of currency. Even current non-dollar fossil fuel purchase prices are going to get sucked into that dollar black hole because the sellers in those transactions are going to want dollars too, so if they are to accept non-pegged currencies then those prices are going to have to reflect dollar-equivalent valuations. Enter Stablecoins.
Stephen Newbury says:
The Physics of the Crash: The Naphtha Clot
The kinetic destruction of Iranian infrastructure, combined with the wider geopolitical crisis, has permanently severed two critical lifelines: Middle Eastern medium and heavy crudes, and Qatari LNG.
The global industrial and logistical machine—the ‘maintenance engine’ of civilisational complexity—runs on middle distillates (diesel, jet fuel, heating oil). You cannot simply replace the heavy, sour barrels of the Middle East with light, sweet WTI from the Permian basin and expect the same refinery yield. Furthermore, the total loss of Qatari LNG removes the high-exergy process heat required to run these refineries efficiently.
When you pump light crude into a refining system that has lost its heavy-molecule balance and its process heat, you do not get diesel. You get an overwhelming surplus of straight-run naphtha—the highly flammable, low-value ‘light end’ of the barrel.
Without the heavier feedstocks required to blend this naphtha into usable finished petrol, or refine into middle distillates, and with the global shipping fleet paralysed by a lack of diesel, this naphtha has nowhere to go. It simply sits in storage. And this is the mechanical trigger for the inversion.
This extra light stuff could make a whole lot of plastics, but what else to do with it?
At the end, a good point:
Governments must stop looking at the ticker tape. Attempting to ‘stimulate’ the economy or subsidise fuel costs in response to this $120 ghost signal will be a fatal error. Stimulus in an environment of absolute physical constraint simply burns through the last remaining biophysical buffers at an accelerating rate. We are not facing a price hike; we are facing the irreversible contraction of the physical envelope of the global economy. The inversion is imminent.
The madness is beyond description or quantification. The West has gone mad. Completely insane. Destroying oil facilities and watching them go up in smoke…because the world will be facing an energy crisis and needs the oil.
Cherchez le cost-benefit analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVyAiZnvQhE
Can’t afford to shoot down drones. Can’t afford not to.
to repeat myself—as usual—
wars eventually destroy that which is fought over
I am afraid Kevin Walmsley is right. The cost of shooting down drones with US or UK equipment is extraordinarily high, relative to the benefit received. From Iran’s point of view, it can eliminate expensive high-tech equipment with very cheap drone.
This system can’t really work for very long.
It is no longer working now. Has anyone seen Bibi lately?
He’s harder to see than Waldo.
Not too surprising:
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/coal-prices-surge-energy-shock-forces-power-plant-fuel-switching-exposed-countries
Coal Prices Surge As Energy Shock Forces Power Plant Fuel Switching In Exposed Countries
Asian benchmark Newcastle coal prices jumped more than 9% to $150/ton (as per BBG data) at the start of the week, as energy flows across the Gulf area remain disrupted and transit through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly slowed. The rise in coal prices is being driven by a broader energy shock, with surging gas prices making coal a more economical substitute fuel for power generators.
Chart seems to show prices in January as low as $105/ton.
I’ve read that Trump initially said that he decided to attack Iran to avoid them have nukes, then he said he wanted to make a ‘regime change’, then he said that he wanted to prevent Iran to attack Israel, then he is saying now that he wants to bomb Iran till the point that it cannot recover anymore.
In other words he has always lied.
On ‘Britannica’ dictionary I’ve read that ‘to trump up’ means:
“to create or make up (something false) in order to cause problems for someone, connect someone to a crime, etc.
Examples: She trumped up some excuse to fire him. Trump up an accusation”
Ancient Latins used to say: “Nomen Omen”
https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/trump
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomen_omen
Doesn’t matter what he said, his vocalizations have minimal information content.
“To retain its military power and reserve currency the US needs leverage to force China to provide it with rare earth minerals, and the US intends to use Iran’s oil as that leverage.“?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/05/cactus-view-of-the-iran-war/
The teenage fanclub hits rock bottom. Structural verisimilitude always collapses into its own footprint with pretzel logic and pretension.
https://youtu.be/z4_dpIu08Qk?si=FRVLWEZptVIJg3Wo
After Global Economy Shudders, Trump Zigzags on Whether War Is Nearing End
The president told reporters at a news conference in Florida that the fighting is “going to be ended soon” but added that the U.S. would strike Iran harder if needed.
Published March 9, 2026
Updated March 10, 2026, 7:28 a.m. ET
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/09/world/iran-war-israel-trump-oil
Good overview on the loose messages by Trump which he uses to wiggle out of his mess…well done by the NYT
Epoch Times is reporting:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/iran-launches-new-wave-of-missiles-drones-across-middle-east-5996550
Iran launched a new wave of missile and drone attacks on Israel and several Gulf Arab countries on March 10.
Air defense systems were activated across the Gulf as authorities in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait reported intercepting incoming threats from Iran.
The UAE’s Ministry of Defence said in a March 10 post on X that its air defenses were responding to incoming missiles and drones. The ministry urged the public to follow safety instructions.
In on of the attack chopper onboard nightvision videos by some of the Gulfie’s airforce there has been nicely shown how the slow flying Iranian drones keep very low profile near sea level, so when they opened gunfire at them, you could see the bullet impact in the sea waves all around.. During the latest phase the drones pickup a bit of height and hit the ~urban / industrial infrastructure on the land already.
Interesting!
The Great Taking was a topic talked by some a couple years ago. Tl, dr, the institutions will simply take away the assets of those who are not exactly part of the ruling clique.
Well, that did happen to the oil sheiks of the Gulf.
Because they were withdrawing large sums of money from hedge funds like BlackRock, the hedge funds prohibited the investors from withdrawing more than 5% of their capital.
So basically the funds have stiffed the oil sheiks’ money.
Yet for whatever reason o one is talking about this Great Taking actually being implemented.
(1) Because it didn’t happen to us
(2) George H.W. Bush famously declared in 1992 that “The American way of life is not up for negotiation”
I have discussed this many times. I assume there are some sheiks who think that Citibank will do this but not Blackrock. Well, they are really too stupid. I think this was already happening in 2007.
If you believe [ Sheiks ] are not diversified I’m currently in position to offer you nice bridge on the Thames river incl. few gallons of yet unused rustoleum paint for it..
Yes, the ~younger cohort (<50-60yrs age) is perhaps over their head in tech stocks, but the wider family wealth is well sunken in nice RE be it capital city palaces or country side chateaux across Europe; art collections, heavy industry across the world, you name it..
If they inevitably loose said few dozens trillions of synthetic money one day, well not the end of the world for them..
surely they are diversified, but that still leaves them having 2 unreachable trillions. the madness was in continuing moving funds there after 2007.
For one thing, this current situation in the Gulf, showed how they have been re-investing lately in various domestic industries while utilizing ($caling up) their domestic natgas feedstock, be it fertilizers factories, plastics and so on.. (as for export markets)
then why even do something like Neom?
Because they are not intelligent.
That’s because what you are describing is happening, is an Inverted Great Taking and not the Great Taking that I always said was just, and perhaps unintentionally, Great Reset adjacent controlled opposition populist herding. The Non-Public Degrowth Agenda inverts everything.
Welcome to Collapse: the rich people lose more money than the poor people.
Pakistan orders fuel-saving due to soaring oil costs
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday unveiled a raft of austerity measures designed to save fuel, as oil prices soar due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.
But he said in a televised address that action was necessary, warning: “The energy crisis is the new crisis.”
At a meeting on Monday, he said ministers had agreed to try to prevent the situation from worsening and had agreed that government offices except banks should move to a four-day week, with half of all staff ordered to work from home.
https://insiderpaper.com/pakistan-orders-fuel-saving-due-to-soaring-oil-costs/
“Pakistan just sent warships into the Gulf to escort its own oil tankers home.”
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2031332990073356773?s=20
Many things are tied together.
It is also possible to fight this war by moving refugees from one country to another.
Nice, the third nuclear threat country pacing back and forth in the strait. Primary purpose, humiliate the horse that champs at the bit out in the Arabian Sea. Secondary purpose, move goods for the homeland. Pass the popcorn.
Good point!
This is the video by Larry Johnson I meant to post.
Well worth a watch.
Why isn’t anyone talking about Trumpy? He says the war is over and then he says it’s beginning. Dementia anyone?
Age of Gaslighting taken to its (il)logical conclusion Nat.
See my earlier comment, Nathanial:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/comment-page-1/#comment-501252
I just did ; I think you are correct. What a strange world… it would suck to be in his cabinet and have to pretend. Sort of like being in Mr. Rodger’s world but 24/7.
hitler used to stand at his map table in the bunker and move armies around with wooden blocks and flags….
same mentaility…
The 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution provides the legal framework for addressing a president who is deemed unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office, including due to mental incapacity. It does not specify a medical threshold for “inability,” leaving the determination to political judgment rather than medical diagnosis.
Gail voted for Trump, so I think it is incumbent on her to press for the 25th Amendment to be invoked. To this end, she should lead a million woman march to Washington.
It’s known that the more people talk about something, the more likely it is to come about. This comes partly under the heading of “morphic resonance” and also “the participatory universe”. Gail therefore surely bears considerable responsibility for the current severity of our peak oil and peak finance issues, and accordingly I think she should bake an apology cake for each of her regular commenters.
I am afraid that it is physics, or the self-organizing system, that is to blame for what is happening. It could even be a Higher Power, allowing Trump to move the economy in a certain direction, for a certain length of time. We could not continue on the path we were on before.
The economy is currently blocked in by both shortages of oil and of critical minerals. We like to think we understand how everything fits together, but we don’t.
when the lunatic-in-charge recruits his own private army, and when their existence depends on his head staying on his shoulders, you can be absolutely certain, that they will committ every murderous act in his name to sustain their existence.
so if/when the attempt is made to remove him, you can be equally certain that he will call on them for his personal, physical protection—and they will attempt to do so….
this is where civil war becomes a possibility—i’m not qualified to go higher than ‘possible’…
but vast numbers of people believe that prayer transcends physics, that donnie was put there by a higher power, and that higher power will protect them in their violent actions….
if you check your history books, you will find that this has been a war factor for 000s of years.–the crosses on the shields of the first crusaders are a case in point.
In the 12th minute Larry said Russia’s gonna be booming with the oil prices that lasted for half a day and I realized that that’s where Name should focus his Paulownia super cycle exports. Maybe gift Tulsi a surfboard blank too. Can’t never do too much networking dawg.
Also the 12th minute, Larry calls Trump a “house Indian” for kissing Bibi’s ass. Clearly he delivers the phrase as a euphemism but I can’t tell for sure whether it’s a euphemism for a coolie or a house nigger. Probably a coolie huh ravi? The Hand clapping reference that the British elite like to do. Larry ain’t pulling any punches euphemism notwithstanding. Definitely not talking about the Red Man they didn’t do no ass kissing. Too wild for that. That’s why they’re all dead or drunk or homeless. Talking about the Orange Man Bad.
WTI is at 84 from an intraday high of 119. This has to be the wildest swing in oil prices ever.
Very “casino-like”.
Pretty sure all Trump’s buddies made money on the volatility.
Deflation solutions for the world looking forward to under 1 dollar a litre petrol the elders must be shaking in their boots
Scott Ritter is claiming that BiBi’s residence was hit in Israel and that his brother was killed. Ben Gvir’s home was hit and there are conflicting claims that he is either severely injured or dead from those strikes. Israel claims he was in a car accident.
Power is out in Tel Aviv from Iranian air strikes and they are hitting targets at will. BiBi Nuttyyahoo is reportedly in an airplane circling Israel as he fears for his life. Well, there’s always Mar A Lago, surely The Donald will give him a room. Iran is striking Israel at will. They have depleted their air defense stockpile.
The question remains, when does Israel get desperate and launch Nukes into Iran?
to me it is clear that they went into this knowing they would eventually go nuclear. those missiles are from doing divine justice but Russia and China are still thinking maybe we can talk. I will never understand why Russia did not shoot an Oreshnik at a carrier while they were only 1000 km off the coast. they could have it done from Russia. that could have initiated an internal change of discourse.
That’s the curse of higher moral ground and humanitarian considerations vs lowly opponent-agressor’s rampage, hence you will always get “bloody nose” instead.. at least in first rounds during that proverbial long drawn cage-match.
The US / Israeli coalition now boasting that supposedly “80/80” goal achieved, i.e. 80% of the key air defense and 80% missile launched pads in Iran destroyed. The former seems legit the latter is likely nonsense given the decades long program of digging it also under cities..
The bottom line remains as already discussed w. Reante, the govs of Iran DID NOT agreed to closer defense union offered by RU-CHN, that flow of some level of intel and other ~help is more or less post event good will only.. I gather it must be a bit like communicating with your estranged ~hippie brother, unnecessary confusion, frustration and misunderstanding rulez.
drb,
in my view, because they think (and for me they are right) that current US leaders and expecially in this administration, they are psychologically unstable.
Russia and China know that they have to deal like with a problematic child who is handling a bazooka.
also these liars are pretty disgusting.
It’ll be good when we can get confirmation on this claim one way or the other. Ritter seems like he can get carried away sometimes.
The problem finding out what is going on is that Israel shuts down any information to the media that makes them look bad. CNN was not allowed to film a missile hitting an Israeli target. They even said so on air.
Scott Ritter says that Israel’s defenses are gone. (Starting around 18 minutes). Iran killed Netanyahu’s brother, and burned down Netanyahu’s house. (I have seen other videos about Iran learning how to get around Israel’s defense system.) Israel is pretty much defenseless now.
Ritter says (earlier in the video) that Iran is winning and the US is running out of what are supposed to be its best weapons.
China is watching all of this and realizes that the “help” the US is promising Taiwan is basically worthless. China will be able to take out US weapons quickly.
In this situation, I suppose all that Israel has left is nuclear weapons. But if a nuclear weapon hits Iran, Iran will be able to quickly make nuclear weapons to hit Israel back.
Chinese historian Jiang Xueqin believes the Iran war will be the end of the American empire. Based on the early results of this war, it is hard to argue with that.
Many former CIA analyst such as Larry Johnson were saying that Iran was fighting a different war. He goes on to say that if the US puts boots on the ground which is now the growing sentiment in Washington, the US will get a bloody nose and two black eyes.
Jiang Xueqin told George Galloway on his podcast that he believes that Israel will achieve its goal of a Greater Israel. That I find hard to believe and I certainly hope not.
Israel is a pariah to the world.
It is easy to believe that the US cannot win in a boots-on-the-ground war. We have found this out in Vietnam and in Afghanistan.
not easy to believe—–
it is absolutely certain..
only godnuts likely hegseth believe such nonsense.
There are two types of nuclear weapons. Fission bombs small and fusion bombs BIG. I find it hard to believe Iran or anyone can just off hand design and make a fusion bomb without any experimentation.
Responding to a fusion bomb with a fission bomb it th same as bring a knife to a gun fight.
Just in . The Indian government cancels all LPG cylinder supply to hotels and restaurants . LPG cylinders will be delivered only to domestic users but only one cylinder per 25 days .
https://www.whalesbook.com/news/English/other/LPG-Supply-Halt-Indias-Hospitality-Sector-Faces-Crisis/69aeede56431e3e2859d17d3
Additional info . Total hotels and restaurants officially registered with the govt are 3 million . However there are at least anything between 30 million to 50 million street cart roadside food stalls . The total number of LPG connections in India is 330 million . Note there is no piped domestic cooking gas . All is with LPG cylinders . I had warned about this a week ago .
P.S : 330 million seems high but the population of India is 1.4 Billion .
The immediate hit is to the 300,000 scooty deliverer boys for uber eatrsz , delveroo etc all gig workers sleeping
in the doorways of the kitchens ; NO work ,no pay ;
for the last 300 years, we have rendered surplus energy into physical money…
we are now seeing the endgame—
How can hotels and restaurants cook without LPG? Homeowners may have the ability to use coal to cook because not long ago coal (or animal dung) was used much more.
But hotels and restaurants probably would not be able to use coal or animal dung to cook. I wonder about street vendors, too. Even if they could get supply as a domestic user, they would likely go through their LPG supply quickly.
Hotels will turn into B&B, offering only hot beverages and bought bakeries and fruits and yogurt, restaurants will close. there will be a huge black market.
we live in an interlocked commercial system
no one can step outside it because we are co-dependent
frinstance—where would ofw’ers be without their daily fix?
Trump is a loose cannon
IATM you know that’s reante in the hat right, because I said one time that people say I look like Woody? Appreciate the character homage. 😁
Just had home heating oil delivered in New York State at $4.699 per gallon. I am happy to have a full tank. Maybe the last.
Just filled pure gas (non ethanol) in jerry cans to keep in case of long lines at petrol stations. Will store in my concrete shed with lawn mower. Read it stays good for 6 to 9 months. Should be enough for a tank. Price $4.30 per gallon.
A bargain…my co worker bought a future contract of $10,000 for the black goo. Lots of risk betting going on…money to be made, my Boy..Margin call
Anyone do business with the Chinese? These guys in 2016 were going off about horror stories in dealings (click to zoom): https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dcfd45ad8fa384a662e94a168c2aa73e0b3e6dd1c8a2861bbd2edf8c34fb3f80.png
This post is 10 years old . I used to hear similar stories then ,but none in the last 3/4 years . I talk with companies that import from India , China and Vietnam . All are quite happy with their Chinese suppliers . Something they tell me is that their sellers in China now speak good English. 10 years ago they always used a translator service . Of course there is always a rotten apple or two .
My brother imports auto parts regularly from China . He speaks highly of them .
Generally agree with Ravi based on indirect contacts recently with chinese universities. they have lots of facilitators. miles ahead of the USA.
But Chinese licensing remains famous. they do not have to slow walk anything to deprive americans of rare earths. the system as-is is good enough, plus perhaps a memo requiring more stringent controls. i encountered that system while inquiring about exporting honey to china. never again.
Brits urged to ‘drive less’ amid fears of soaring petrol prices due to Iran war
“Brits have been urged to ‘drive less’ in a bid to save fuel amid soaring global oil prices – costs that are set to have knock-on effects at the pumps.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/petrol-prices-jump-170p-per-litre-iran-war-oil-5HjdW6D_2/
This is not a surprise.
How much longer before they restrict civilian air flight?
it will be self restricting—purely on cost
well i’m thinking of going electric—
after saying i never would
perfectly understandable and with costs for Chinese EV being so low I believe a car for 10-km trips could well be electric. collapse is full of surprises.
Norm, is driving an EV.
is said thinking of——-
if diesel goes down altogther…an ev isnt going to be any use anyway
Well, it depends on Norman’s situation.
Pennywise-repairwise the best deal would be some used TSLA, but the ingress ergonomics is more towards younger crowd.
Now, another angle, if he doesn’t need venturing on hw then even some of the lower city only options made in CHN could be interesting. But still some used VW e-up would be cheaper.
Overall, if new standard car is desired the middle ground would be some smaller-midsize SUV package ala MG brand or something SKorean ala Kia with the min. batt package..
note: !avoid FR production..
when even the decane of ofw considers going electric i feel encouraged to repeat an argument i made a couple of times here. electricity has some flexibility. this might actually not matter in the UK where the energy portfolio is poor. but in the US, where railways run solely on diesel, it will prove a significant part of collapse. china and russia have hydro, nuclear and some other things and their network will last longer.
Agree with these general points.
Still, there are nuanced aspects in the sense, the UK grid must be kept on within certain predictable pattern (fq) even during off peak hours say over night, hence up to a point of some limiting ecar saturation-mass adoption such as charging EVs will be possible.
So, if Norman goes for small econobox ala said “E-UP” he will be sucking very tiny one phase juice ssloowllly say vs. 3phase ~sportscar yuppies to be firstly regulated down come true lean grid times around..
The Lies dishes out for us 👇 🇮🇳
The War will not have significant Impact on India, said Government sources.
Oil & Energy prices won’t be Increased.
India has 25 days of Oil Stock.
Let’s look at few things, how we are impacted:
We export 20% of Basmati rice produce to Iran. Nearly 400,000 metric tonnes of Basmati rice currently stranded at ports or in transit.
West Asia accounts for 21% of India’s Food & Agricultural Exports. That’s more than 1 Lakh crores which is under threat.
Insurance cost increased to 10 to 12 times {1200%}.
Container rates have surged to $3,500–$4,500 only.
Bizarre increase in Routing & Rerouting Charges, in few cases up to 250%.
What will happen to these Perishable Goods ?
What will happen to ready to Export Perishable Goods ?
We received 4,590,000,000,000 Rupees (4 lakh 59 thousand crore INR) in form of Remittance from Gulf Countries that is under dire threat now.
Russia is not ready to Give Oil at Old Price as we are Ready to Buy Oil for 30 Days from them after America Granted us Permission.
Most Important Question,
Why have they Increased LPG Prices even before Buying Expensive Gas ?
Who is benefitting from Iran War ?
Indian exporters are in trouble
45,000 containers stuck
For the ones with perishable goods – this means TOTAL LOSS
https://x.com/_healthZwealth_/status/2030839123796431134/photo/1
This sounds terrible. It seems like stores around the world that specialize in selling Indian good (food and gift items) would be especially hit.
Global Village is a powerhouse in Russia. Indian owned, Dubai based company that distributes supermarket fruits and veggies. I assume it is only the fraction that goes to the Gulf that is affected though who knows, it might have become uneconomical to transit the red sea on the way to Russia. those are containers that do not produce much profit per container.
Russia might, at least temporarily, benefit from the Iran war, if bombing can stay away from the country.
Bought “yours” Himalayan-formerly sea bed (pink) salt, non perishable item.
Bapco declares force majeure as Iran sets Bahrain’s only refinery ablaze
Bapco Energies invoked force majeure on Monday after a strike set the Al-Ma’ameer facility ablaze, joining Qatar and Kuwait in suspending shipments as Iran escalates its attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Bahrain’s state energy company declared force majeure on its oil shipments on Monday after an Iranian attack set its only refinery ablaze, becoming the latest Gulf state to invoke the clause as Iran widens its campaign against regional energy infrastructure. (Euronews)
G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency call with the IEA to consider a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves as oil prices surge amid the Iran conflict. Some officials are discussing a potential 300 to 400mn barrel release, up to 30% of the IEA’s 1.2bn-barrel emergency stockpile.
This is 3 days supply and what if all of it goes to fill China’s SPR ?? 🤣
The world’s emergency supply starts looking terribly small, compared to the longer-term problem we may be facing.
I’ve read that Hormuz is 20% of global supply, or 20mbpd, so it’s more like 15-20 days worth of offset.
I earlier thought only 10mbpd would be offline, that shipments would continue to friendly nations, but the US Navy has apparently started blowing up Iran’s oil tankers. So I guess the full 20mbpd will be removed. This seems likely to backfire, and quickly, but what do I know …
A person would think that no one would start such a problematic war.
If the world lost 20% of its oil supply, even temporarily, there would be a huge problem.
“Institutional positioning heading into Operation Epic Fury was a textbook concentration of risk built on three embedded beliefs: that the Strait of Hormuz would never actually close because the mutual economic damage was too great for any rational actor to sustain, that US military power could rapidly resolve any disruption, and that global energy bypass capacity and strategic reserves could absorb a temporary interruption. Each belief has been operationally refuted in the first nine days of the war. “?
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance?r=6p7b5o&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=t.co
Every sell-side research desk, every geopolitical risk model, and every energy strategy team at every major institution on Earth is currently modelling this closure as a kinetic problem solvable by military force. The United States has three carrier strike groups in theatre. It has achieved tactical air superiority over Iranian airspace. It has destroyed 80% of Iran’s integrated air defence network, sunk 43 warships, and reduced Iranian missile launches by 86% from their opening-day peak. By every traditional metric of military dominance, the campaign is succeeding.
Yet the Strait remains commercially paralysed.
The US Navy has not escorted a single commercial tanker through Hormuz. The Development Finance Corporation’s $20 billion emergency reinsurance facility, announced on 6 March, has not produced a single confirmed insured VLCC transit at scale. And the market, anchored to a consensus of two-to-four-week military resolution, is mispricing the duration of this closure by a factor of at least three.
Later:
The market is not pricing a war. It is not pricing a chokepoint closure. It is not pricing a nuclear crisis. It is pricing a legacy framework in which these events are temporary, resolvable, and mean-reverting. The mechanism analysis establishes they are structural, self-reinforcing, and regime-changing. The gap between what the market believes and what the evidence demonstrates is the alpha.
All Supermajors are invested in Middle East, even Lukoil and Gazprom, Italian Eni, French TotalEnergies, Norwegian Equinor. War damages are usually not covered by insurances. While higher oil prices might compensate losses, major damages might affect even larger companies and let them drop out of business. This should also be considered. Shipping companies and insurances might also be affected.
Most Middle East investments are not diversified, though. If companies go bankrupt, it might be also a danger to aquire enough capital to re-build the facilities.
Petrobas, Petronas and OMV seems not to be invested in the region and can enjoy the price rally.
And Trump might get now enough invest capital to rebuild Venezuela.
Italy is lucky that ENI was bought cheaply by the Rothschilds in 1992. But, since it is customary in the West to fret about the Rothschild’s financial well being, at least they enjoyed 34 years of revenue.
Arabain Peninsula and air quality – a summary by Google Gemini
Air quality in the Arabian Peninsula is among the most polluted in the world, often characterized by a combination of high natural dust, intense industrial emissions, and rapid urbanization. While dust storms are a major factor, research indicates that over 90% of hazardous fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the region is of anthropogenic origin (human-caused).
IQAir
IQAir
+2
Key Air Quality Characteristics
Persistent Pollution: Major cities like Dubai, Kuwait City, Doha, Manama, and Riyadh frequently rank among the most polluted in the world, with air quality often rated as “unhealthy” or “very unhealthy”.
Particulate Matter (PM2.5 & PM10): The region consistently exceeds World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. For example, Saudi Arabia’s annual average PM2.5 concentration can be up to 5 times higher than the WHO guideline value.
High Ozone (O3) Levels: The area is a hotspot for ground-level ozone, a secondary pollutant formed from nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) under intense sunlight.
Seasonal Variations: While sand and dust storms are worst from March to May, winter air quality is also very poor due to weak winds and temperature inversions that trap pollutants near the surface.
IQAir
IQAir
+4
Primary Sources of Pollution
Industrial Emissions: Petrochemical processing, oil extraction, power generation, and, in particular, inefficient desalination plants are major contributors.
Transportation: Heavy reliance on private vehicles, often with older, less efficient engines, and dense ship traffic contribute heavily to VOC and NOx emissions.
Construction & Urbanization: Rapid urban expansion generates significant dust and construction-related particulate matter.
IQAir
IQAir
+4
Health and Environmental Impact
High Mortality Risk: Air pollution in the Middle East is a significant health risk, with studies estimating 745 annual excess deaths per 100,000 people due to poor air quality.
Diseases: Long-term exposure is linked to respiratory diseases (asthma, COPD), cardiovascular issues (heart attacks, strokes), and other illnesses.
Indoor Air Quality: Due to the severity of outdoor pollution, dust often penetrates homes and workplaces.
IQAir
IQAir
+1
Mitigation Efforts
Governments in the region are taking steps to improve air quality:
Renewable Energy: Saudi Arabia is investing in solar energy (aiming for 41 GW) and wind power (e.g., Dumat Al-Jandal wind farm) to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
Infrastructure: Projects like the Riyadh Metro are aimed at reducing reliance on private cars.
Urban Greenery: Initiatives to plant millions of native trees are underway to act as natural dust buffers.
IQAir
IQAir
It is hard to see why people would want to visit the Middle East as a vacation destination, with such poor air quality.
I asked ChatGPT for a summary:
“Topographic basins concentrate pollution through temperature inversions and weak ventilation, raising respiratory illness and reducing local carrying capacity in places such as Slovakia and Iran. Limited water resources, thin soils and mono-industrial economies amplify socioeconomic vulnerability. Rising energy prices further limit coping capacity, push households toward cheaper dirty fuels, and shrink fiscal space for clean infrastructure. Religious leaders can legitimize difficult reforms, mobilize parish and charitable networks, shape conservation norms, and mediate protest during subsidy changes. Their moral authority increases political feasibility, but must be paired with technical safeguards, transparent compensation and measurable emissions controls and protect health.”
https://chatgpt.com/share/69aed2a9-4308-8012-9fc2-af92cd5b3b53
If folks cannot get compressed natural gas for cooking, they will cook with coal. Coal is a whole lot more polluting.
(Probably not in the Middle East, but in much of Asia.)
The times between WW1 and WW2:
They built Lenin’s Mausoleum in Russia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenin%27s_Mausoleum
In Slovakia, they built Mausoleum for Andrej Hlinka, a priest leading the Slovak Peoples Party:
https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauz%C3%B3leum_Andreja_Hlinku
https://www.kamnavylet.sk/en/attraction/mausoleum-of-andrej-hlinka
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_People%27s_Party
The second priest leader, Jozef Tiso, the president of the Nazi Slovak State, visiting Ruzomberok, the industrial town with one of the highest air polution in Slovakia at that time, where Andrej Hlinka (1864 – 1938) was born and was burried, delclaring this place as a place of national pilgrimage:
https://youtu.be/b-weWW5YZCI?si=UYNrfRfjZ3ZZQ95E
This is a hard part of the Slovak history, every historian is cautious about it as it sparks many controversies due to its connection with Germanys Nazis.
Anyway, Germans formed a strong minority in Slovakia at that time, so this connection with Germany was natural.
Price Controls Arrive: South Korea, Taiwan Impose Fuel Price Cap
“While one can debate the prudence of such price controls until one is blue in the face, the reality is that unless oil stabilizes and reverses, expect similar price caps all across the world coupled with strategic petroleum reserve releases, because a 25% one-day surge in the price of oil – if sustained – not only guarantees a global recession, but it also ensures social unrest, as well as a comprehensive sacking of every incumbent politician.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/price-controls-arrive-south-korea-taiwan-impose-fuel-price-cap
If you put in price controls you have to “ration” or you will have shortages of fuel.
Atlanta is quite a long ways from the Gulf of Mexico by pipeline. Atlanta has had experience with “anti-gouging” rules acting as price caps, in times of pipeline shortages (after hurricanes or broken pipelines). We had long lines and the pumps. Some people gave up and stayed home from work.
If prices had been allowed to rise, truckers would have brought more oil to the Atlanta area, and there would have been more total oil available.
In general the US oil situation is complicated by multi-car ownership (out of necessity) per household given the spread out living arrangement and distances covered for errands, often no other transportation alternatives. So, parents, and kid = 2-3x carz (~low mpg at that) per household on ~average.
That’s absolutely bonkers vs RoW..
I asked Google Gemini and ChatGPT to provide some hints:
Below is a concise, structured English summary that pulls together the threads you asked for (historical comparison with Slovakia, how religion has shaped political structures, how that links to contemporary environmental politics), followed by practical “starting points” (východiska) for Iran from **today’s** situation.
### High-level synthesis (history → institutions → environment)
1. Institutional form and historical roots
In Iran the post-1979 constitution embeds clerical rule (the doctrine of *velāyat-e faqīh*), putting a religious jurist at the apex of state power and creating permanent clerical control over the military, judiciary and key oversight bodies. Slovakia’s wartime example under Jozef Tiso shows a contrasting pattern: strong personal klerikalizmus tied to one leader and wartime clientelism rather than durable theocratic constitutional structures. ([legal-tools.org][1])
2. Paramilitary/parallel security structures and political economy
Modern Iran’s power architecture includes deeply institutionalized paramilitary and economic actors (notably the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and associated networks) that are integrated into the state economy and foreign policy; this gives Tehran structural resilience but also concentrates vested interests that resist rapid reforms. By contrast, Slovakia’s wartime militias (e.g., Hlinka Guard) were episodic, clientelist, and dependent on an external patron. This difference matters for how durable political choices are and who can block environmental or social reforms. ([Reuters][2])
3. How religion interacts with environmental politics today
Religion can legitimize either strong environmental stewardship or conservative restraint, depending on political incentives. In many Christian-democratic settings (examples: KDH vs. CDU in Germany), the difference has been whether the party faced electoral pressure from green competitors, whether industrial strategy made “green” a job-creating opportunity, and whether institutional capacity existed to translate programs into credible policy. Where clerical authority is constitutional and security-integrated (Iran), the same religious language of stewardship exists but political incentives and rent structures often push toward preserving economic/strategic prerogatives rather than strict environmental limits. ([Wikipedia][3])
4. Short empirical context (today)
Iran is under acute political stress (leadership transition and regional escalation) while still facing persistent human-rights crackdowns that limit civic space for environmental activism. Those pressures—plus IRGC economic weight and international sanctions—narrow the feasible policy set for ambitious, rights-respecting green transitions. ([The Guardian][4])
### Why KDH (and similar parties) often have weaker environmental platforms — quick note you mentioned
* Ideological frame (subsidiarity, market trust) + rural/owner-sensitive electorate + coalition constraints → caution on top-down environmental limits. Germany’s CDU moved green because of electoral competition from strong Greens, industrial policy linking green tech to jobs, and strong regional laboratories (Länder) for reform. Those contextual levers are weaker for KDH in Slovakia. (For Slovakia’s energy context: a substantial share of low-carbon generation comes from nuclear, which also alters the political stakes.) ([IEA][5])
—
## Practical starting points for Iran — realistic, politically aware options
(These are pragmatic “východiska”: steps or pathways that are feasible given current constraints. I order them from least to most politically ambitious.)
1. **Depoliticize selected environmental fixes (low-risk technical gains)**
* Prioritize quick, technocratic improvements that reduce visible public pain: water-management upgrades, leak reduction in urban networks, targeted air-quality controls for industrial hotspots. These can be framed as public health and economic efficiency measures rather than ideological shifts.
* Why feasible: they don’t immediately threaten entrenched rents and are defensible as administrative modernization.
2. **Pilot clean-energy + job-link projects under security-safe umbrellas**
* Create state-backed pilot projects that place IRGC/other economic actors as contractors in renewable or efficiency programs (e.g., distributed solar for remote provinces, energy retrofits for public buildings). This accepts current power distribution while redirecting spending toward green outcomes.
* Trade-off: slower, less transformational change, but politically survivable.
3. **Use religious framing to mobilize conservative constituencies**
* Frame selected environmental actions as “stewardship of God’s creation” and “preserving family welfare” to make them resonate within clerical discourse. Mobilize mosque networks and conservative local leaders for messaging and small-scale projects (tree planting, waste campaigns).
* Why: theological language exists for stewardship; reframing reduces perception of environmental policy as foreign imposition.
4. **Targeted legal and institutional reforms with carve-outs for gradual implementation**
* Introduce measurable, time-phased environmental compliance standards (e.g., emissions caps with multi-year phase-in, compensated by transition funding). Couple with transparency measures that are narrow in scope to avoid direct confrontation with security actors.
* This keeps optics of reform while buying negotiating room with economic stakeholders.
5. **International carrots: negotiate incremental sanction relief for verifiable technical cooperation**
* Seek narrowly scoped agreements (e.g., water, air-quality, nuclear safety/plant upgrades) that open channels for technical assistance or sanction easing tied to verifiable environmental work. This leverages external incentives without demanding wholesale political liberalization up front.
* Risk: external partners will demand credible monitoring; domestic actors may view this suspiciously.
6. **Longer-term: open civic space for environmental civil society as an entry point for broader civic pluralism**
* Over the medium term, permitting greater civic action on environmental issues (universities, professional associations, faith-based NGOs) can build constituencies for stronger policy and create avenues for accountability. This is politically sensitive but is one of the most durable routes to systemic change.
—
## One-line political calculus
If the regime’s priority is stability and preserving existing power/economic levers, the easiest path to improved environmental outcomes is **technical pilots + religiously framed local campaigns + economic incentives for actors tied to the security-economy**. If political openings widen (reduced repression, intra-elite splits), there is space for more systemic reforms (legal standards, transparency, civil society).
—
If you want, I can now:
* Turn these starting points into a two-page policy brief for external technocratic partners (with short implementation milestones and indicators), **or**
* Draft three compact messaging lines that would sell these reforms to conservative religious constituencies (handy if you want to see how stewardship language can be operationalized).
Which do you prefer?
[1]: https://www.legal-tools.org/doc/4205c7/pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran”
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eu-ministers-approve-new-iran-sanctions-response-crackdown-2026-01-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com “EU designates Iran’s Revolutionary Guards a terrorist …”
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Movement?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Christian Democratic Movement”
[4]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/08/ali-khameneis-son-mojtaba-chosen-as-irans-new-supreme-leader?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba chosen as Iran’s new supreme leader”
[5]: https://www.iea.org/countries/slovak-republic/energy-mix?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Slovak Republic – Countries & Regions – IEA”
The environmental issue is pushed very hard in Europe because it is desperately short of fossil fuels. It also cannot tell people about the terrible situation, so it has come up with a narrative that makes it sound like renewables can be a workaround. In fact, the way we are doing them now. renewables cannot possibly be workarounds.
It seems to me that pushing the environmental issue is almost lying to people. As long as we require the output of the system, we will require fossil fuels to get the output. If population falls enough, we can get along without as much fossil fuels. But that is a difficult path to follow.
There are various environmental issues, not only pollution, e.g. limiting construction everywhere, i. e. protection of arable land, nature. So environmental protection is surely a good idea as regards the population control: the organisms are products of their environment, i. e. this approach is in line with the nature.
We can see how excess construction makes things worse, creates a false picture of surplus of energy when in fact we lack the cheap energy for the operation and maintenance of the buildings, roads etc.
BREAKING: Bangladesh announced all universities will be closed as part of emergency measures to conserve fuel amid a worsening energy crisis linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran.
https://x.com/MiddleEastEye/status/2030859469413102048
Bangladesh is pretty far away from the conflict, but I suppose less travel to and from the university would help oil use. Eating at home uses less energy than eating away.
When oil becomes more important than anything else – Tragedy at a gas station in Slovakia: A little boy was hit by a car driven by his father.
A tragic accident occurred on Saturday night at a gas station near Nové Mesto nad Váhom. As confirmed by Petra Klenková, spokesperson for the Trenčín Regional Police, a four-year-old boy died under the wheels of a car.
https://spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/789292-obrovska-tragedia-na-benzinke-maleho-chlapca-zrazilo-auto-za-volantom-sedel-jeho-otec/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_9clanok_box
you must know something that is not in the article. Was there even a line at the station, let alone fighting? I killed one of my manager cats while exiting his driveway in reverse.
He was reversing:
https://www.netky.sk/clanok/tragedia-na-cerpacej-stanici-otec-pri-cuvani-zrazil-svojho-4rocneho-syna–chlapcek-zomrel-na-mieste
“The incident took place around 6 p.m., shortly after the father had filled up his car. The boy was waiting by the fuel pumps while his father was about to park his vehicle. First, he moved forward, then began to reverse—and that was when he accidentally hit his son.”
Obviously, the father, who has just filled the car, underestimated the sons ability to understand the situation, i. e. the possible movements of the car. Left him outside of the car, which could cause the child a stress.
Acting fast, disrigarding risks.
In short, nothing to do with the energy crisis. then why did you post it?
Energy crisis is also when you try to squeeze yourself into a shrinking world: acting faster to save time, prevent atomization, saving machines etc.
The child was eliminated because it did not fit into the behaviour of his father as the person responsible for its protection. Father acted in line with the machine that needed fuel, but not in line with his child that needed care and protection.
I am afraid that lack of logical thought, normally attributed to women, also affects many members of the male persuasion. You should not be posting here. There is plenty of forums in the internet that are at your intellectual level. I also eliminated that cat due to the “shrinking world” and because “oil is more important than anything else”.
People give priority to machines, fuel so that they can survive. They do not spend money on children. Logical. The safety of the child was disregarded. That is a fact.
Maybe you also elminated the cat because it did not fit into the human world where machines play key role.
Gentlemen, peace, peace, we are all friends here.
Cats have nine lives. And people often do too.
I’ve come close to loosing my fingers, my ability to walk, and my life on at least seven or eight separate occasions.
It was that close!
For instance, I don’t drive, but three times I’ve been a passenger in a car involved in a collision, but I escaped with nothing more than slight bruising.
I’ve also been almost hit by cars when walking across the street with the traffic lights in my favor, almost hit by a falling roof, and almost slipped off the side of a mountain while descending carrying an injured climbers backpack in addition to my own.
The fingers incident came when my hand was caught in a straw cutter. That could have been very nasty but I was spared major injury by wearing a thick leather glove.
By the grace of the Almighty, I have been fortunate enough to have been spared blinding, crippling, mangling, brain damage, and death by misadventure up to now.
It’s amazing I am still in as good shape as I am.
I really should take care and pay attention.
I expect most people my age can remember an equally long list of near misses, and many of us have not been quite that lucky.
WH press secretary Karoline Leavitt tells Fox News that a military draft is on the table.
https://x.com/Amy_Siskind/status/2030755472463073522
Young people are so physically out of shape that I expect most young people will be exempt.
If Strauss&Howe’97 were/are correct, then modern Millennials are the new
cannon fodderG.I. generation…When prices are volatile, they lock you out of the ability to trade until market makers are on-sides. Or just declare contracts void.
>> https://x.com/RentYourStocks/status/2030837217875091899
>> $USO is halted
>> Let that SINK in.⚓️
Up only ~30% in 5dayz.. nevertheless thanks for the alert.
Perhaps from the chart it was starting to form hyper spike pattern, so AI told them knock it off, lolz.
I was wondering previously around the [ Delcy R. ] days how many of the double/triple oil ETFs are no longer there.. (tools for us peons). Well not necessarily out of conspiracy-ploy just too long low price of oil made them close the shop.
Everything is going according to plan. The ruling class would rather rule over ashes than lose power or face accountability over the Epstein affair.
‘We’re marching through the world;’ Lindsey Graham continues push for more US intervention abroad
https://abcnews4.com/news/local/were-marching-through-the-world-graham-continues-push-for-more-us-intervention-abroad-senator-lindsey-graham-iran-cuba-hezbollah-lebanon-beruit-israel
Maybe Graham should look closely at his weapon supplies.
graham is one of those godnuts who actually believes that the world will be fixed if only we all pray hard enough before the right god. (his of course)
He carries precisely the same mentaility as the 12th c crusaders…
he is clearly off his head—along with the idiots who voted him into office
Lol that makes you a hardcore conspiracy theorist that believes the conspiracy theory they spoon fed you such that you refuse to believe that they did spoon-feed it to you. You think you figured it out for yourself.
All of this fighting does get interest away from the Epstein issue.
I don’t think so. The focus just shifts out of a sense of urgency. But the narrative was firmly established. And we haven’t seen the end of it. It just makes too much sense that the Epstein files will be part of the coup because it establishes the treason without which a coup probably couldn’t happen just on the basis of a humiliatingly bad command of the military which would just lead to impeachment and removal from office.
The Canadian Prepper, aka Nate Polson, said $1000 . barrel oil is not out of the realm of possiility.
What will happen when oil reaches $1000/barrel? Are we all going to ride horses, or one of Musk’s new, untested, unproven contraption, made by oompa loompa in one of Musk’s hidden facilities?
$107 barrel already! + up 19% at opening
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/1
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/energy-secretary-chris-wright-energy-prices-iran/
Oh not to worry energy secretary said that gas prices won’t go much higher.😵💫 . If they wish upon a star does it come true
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-island-could-break-iran
Whoops there it is….bunker hill of 2026. Probably where 5000 U.s service members will lose their lives….
Stock Market Crash!
Dow futures down -1,000
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
Someone better call the Russians, make a deal… and get the Shadow Fleet unloading. Hundreds of ships loaded with oil…. waiting… patiently…. for sanctions to end.
No deals. Only steals!
Precisely why we don’t come back from this. There is no possibility for diplomacy… everyone knows it.
Rules based order went out the window for the same reason.
That leaves us with …. every man for himself.
Java
‘The end of the world is upon us’, Kremlin warns
Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov hit out at a breakdown in ‘international law.’
The doom-laden warning for the planet came amid massive US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which the Kremlin labelled a ‘perfect storm.’
Russia appears helpless to assist Tehran except possibly in providing intelligence on American and Israeli military positions.
Putin’s mouthpiece said: ‘There have been worse things in human history… but we weren’t alive then, so it seems to us that the end of the world is upon us.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15627737/The-end-world-Kremlin-warns.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=social-twitter_mailonline
DEVELOPING: Japan’s Nikkei stock index plummets more than 4,000 points (7.2%), one of its biggest drops on record
https://x.com/BNODesk/status/2030822990686937191
Japan is an importer of all fossil fuels, quite a bit from the Middle East.
back in the 30s—i think oil was $2 a barrel—-now its $100+
so theoretically it could go to 1000—why not 1 million????
except that at 1000 no one would be able to afford to consume it—-because we wouldnt be producing the oil-consuming goods at that oil price—-
and thats the key to it—affordable consumption
Great Britain has only two days of gas stored, while Iran war threatens to disrupt supplies
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/08/great-britain-has-only-two-days-of-gas-stored-as-iran-war-disrupts-supplies?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Canadian Prepper gives the prepping community a bad name. Exhibit A for the fear mongering classic opportunist. His motto: Buy everything and anything to prep, so I can get a cut off the sales.
Here’s how things are going for the first week:
https://no01.substack.com/p/the-opening-salvo
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-1-day-two
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-2-nobody-to-call
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-3-no1-left-to-call
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-4-paint-by-missiles
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-5-everything-must-go
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-6-7-the-grind-goes-on
This is all very disturbing. Too much oil supply is being disturbed. The only good part is that both sides will eventually run out of ammunition.
There is the other issue that both sides have atomic bombs. If they run short of conventional bombs, they may resort to them.
“The only good part is that both sides will eventually run out of ammunition.”
One of them will run out first and those pronouncing that Iran is running out, because it fired less missiles for a day, ignores what they have now started using.
150lb(?) warhead on a drone, compared with 1500kg on the now in use missiles. That’s like ignoring mountains when planning a land invasion, not that anyone in our media would notice.
I’d be more concerned with the (now irreparably)blinded, non industrial nations chucking around bunker busters in a desperate attempt at projecting power, through destruction of non military, empty buildings(no doubt they’ll find a 5th populated school soon).
“Considering the disruption in the performance of the fighter jets previously used by the enemy and the serious problems that have arisen with enemy munitions, they have now resorted in some cases to using bombers and bunker busters against locations that fundamentally have no justification. For example, the enemy has used bunker buster bombs to strike an empty Basij base or police station,” the source explained.
“Such change in tactics and the severe reduction in the offensive and defensive magazine of the enemy indicates a significant development in favor of Iran,” the source noted, adding, “The enemy has been forced to use very expensive tools to strike ordinary centers that hold no military achievement for it, and this is one of the important signs of developments on the battlefield in favor of Iran.”
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/09/3536204/source-gives-details-of-major-upheaval-in-theater-amid-war-on-iran
This has been obvious for a couple of days, because despite the bluster(even in full caps), Drumpf was
https://english.almanar.com.lb/article/32692/
and is
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/trump-seeking-contact-to-end-war–tehran-not-responding–exc
desperate.
On the article that claimed huge percentages of Iranian military equipment destroyed, is this the same stuff that was destroyed last June?
Because if it is, they’ve just admitted that Iran is an industrial powerhouse, that can resupply faster than Russia. Otherwise they can only be lying(again).
Who runs out first?
AnsarAllah haven’t even entered the fray yet and people are concern trolling about Russia and China not doing enough(
The world has moved on and for those that can follow 10 minutes of subtitles, here’s an amusing reminder of where science(and industry) is now(not with us)
https://youtu.be/jWEobtkOGDU?si=Y6_46ux83Lmy8Ckr
Should be a few gaffaw moments, for those that know(scientists, engineers, or anyone with eyes and honesty).
That’s an excellent resource. Thank you, CTG.
Yeah it is.
Goldman Sachs joins Deutsche Bank in warning that oil prices of $150 a barrel likely are coming soon. Oil flow has fallen ‘far more’ than they had realised, and the coming oil shock is going to be ‘far greater’ than any previous oil shocks including the rocketing prices of 2008.
The Strait is closed, and some oil and gas facilities have already been struck in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. It is entirely possible that all of the oil and gas producers in the Middle East will declare force majeure and stop all production for a lengthy period.
No one really knows how high oil and gas are going to go.
https://www.arise.tv/oil-prices-could-hit-150-if-strait-of-hormuz-disruption-persists-says-goldman-sachs/
> Oil Prices Could Hit $150 If Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Persists, Says Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs warns oil could hit $150 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz flows fall to 10%
Global oil prices could surge past $100 a barrel within days and potentially reach $150 by the end of the month if disruptions to crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue, according to a warning from Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank said oil flows through the critical maritime route — which links major Middle Eastern producers to global buyers — have dropped far more sharply than it initially projected following the recent US‑Israeli attack on Iran.
Goldman Sachs had expected crude flows through the strait to fall to about 15% of normal levels. However, Iran’s effective blockade of tankers moving through the narrow waterway means that only about 10% of the oil cargoes that usually transit the route have been able to pass.
In a note to clients on Friday, the bank said the disruption represented a shock far greater than earlier global supply crises.
“Based on these new data, developments and the size of the shock, we now think that oil prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge by then,” the bank said.
“We now also think it’s likely that oil prices, especially for refined products, would exceed the 2008 and 2022 peaks, if Strait of Hormuz flows were to remain depressed throughout March.”
Goldman Sachs said its analysis suggested the impact on global oil flows last week was 17 times larger than the peak production loss recorded in April 2022 after Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which pushed crude prices to around $110 a barrel….
Iran warned that if they were attacked, they would collapse the global economy by closing the Straits of Hormuz. It’s obvious the US was preoccupied with other matters when they said it.
The situation will push oil prices up, but the lack of oil will also push the world economy down. We could see another price spike situation.
Or we could see ripple effects that bring whole industries down. One concern is fertilizers, and because of this, food production. Europe could be affected.
I dont see this. 20% of Europe’s oil imports comes from the Middle East. That should be comparable to the Lockdowns. Germany’s BASF has enough capabilities to produce fertilizers. As it seems they run on natural gas. They have halfened ammonia production due to high gas prices. It is only a question of political will to cover the costs.
Leyen has announced she wants to replace the missing oil by alternative energy. We need 40.000 to 118.000 3-MW-windmills to compensate these 20%. At the moment a calculated amount of 82.000 are installed. To add another half within the next months should not be possible.
Seemingly off-topic: update on the fat cargo awd e-trikes [CHN], well one of the key importers SOLD-OUT, unknown future stock.. and that was 2.5k grand (after sale) in Ursula money..
Simply, the prices (and deliverable product) from the gone world of $60 oil price world are not to be repeated so easily (or ever)..
btw. good luck with that non recyclable blade garbage lasting millennia dumped-buried somewhere in the landscape..
oops meant 2.5k RWD and 3.6k AWD. ..
hah
the end results will be deflation remember back in 2020 there was a drop of 26 million barrels per day thanks to the lockdowns the price of oil dropped to negative 44 dollars a barrel. This will enable the elders to push forward the next phase of the plan. Get your popcorn ready things are about to get interesting.
Housing prices seem to be falling in the US, according to some reports.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-home-relistings-hit-record-high-spring-buying-season-kicks-and-one-third-are-cheaper
People who couldn’t see their homes before are trying again, some of them at a lower price.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-team-downplays-treasury-role-oil-futures-market
Not to worry the oil prices are only going up temporarily the orange man has got this under control. If they pull out now what happens? Russia must be loving this
We need the oil, however.
Oil has opened at around $107.
Live updates here: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Report: CENTCOM Suggests Trump’s War in Iran Will Likely Last Through September
https://truthout.org/articles/report-centcom-suggests-trumps-war-in-iran-will-likely-last-through-september/
Russia is to the world what Amazon was during COVID .😄
Crude oil price surges to $115 on Hyperliquid as Kuwait, UAE slash production .https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:e41128e82094b:0-crude-oil-price-surges-to-115-on-hyperliquid-as-kuwait-uae-slash-production/
Britain only has 2 days of Gas stored creating a supply crisis.
The UK used to have up to 12 days worth of gas in storage, but the system collapsed after successive government ministers pulled its funding.
This is all a Government created crisis. In Countries like the UK & Australia they have intentionally allowed our stored resources to dwindle to nothing.
Incompetence or intentional?
Either way these Globalist traitorous Governments are not fit to lead or run a nation.
They are a danger to us all.
This is the Daily Mail a rag but then running out of fuel in Australia .
https://x.com/TruthFairy131/status/2030593459334361203/photo/1
Thanks for the updates. On a personal note, I have been trying to contact our propane supplier for several days now, and have not yet received a reply. The chat-bot on their web site is not even working. I am in Poland. Normally, they don’t do refills until the tank reaches 20% capacity. I asked them in the early days of the covid thing and they eventually came out. I have a vague feeling, I might not be getting a refill this time.
You mean like refilling that near home buried tank <10 000L sized right? I've got only few of those basic ~10L/25kg traditional sized bottles chiefly for emergency cooking as for few ham&eggs per yr so to speak, hah.
Gonna need some heavy cream too if you’re gonna continue to make those eggs Hotel de Crillon style.
Yes, I’m literally using dozens of varieties of dairy, each fitting different dishes and so on.
So, that’s one of the specific limits for me – in terms of complexity thresholds. So, “afterwards” when no longer available not much interested in other earthly events..
I’m not going to emergency-patch it ~ME style via goat milk on the scraps etc..
My dad stayed at the Crillon once just to say he did, and then did his scrambled eggs that way forever after.
The aura of the late parents, ancestors in general is very strange time-wise indeed. My parents were born pre-WWII. It’s like in some family oral histories speaking already in late 19th century how their grand dad was given handkerchief or small coin personally by Napoleon, or how Ike himself patted them over the shoulders just before the day-brake attack, and so on..
I have only one tank (2000L) that we use for heating in the winter and cooking in the summer. I have enough wood (2-3 years) to avoid freezing if it comes to that. Nice Jotul stove in salon. Most neighbors pay for gas on delivery, GasPol delvers and then we pay as we use it. I’d prefer to have a full tank and worry about details later.
I take it that the UK has only two days of natural gas in storage. Isn’t natural gas what the UK tries to balance wind and solar with? Isn’t the UK headed for an electricity crisis shortly, besides home not being able to be headed with natural gas.
I remember that there also used to be a problem with pilot lights going out, and needing to be relit, when home natural gas goes out. This could be a bit issue. You can get gas leaks and explosions.
I think the 82 airborne division is going in probably at the end of this week. Maybe then they can open the straight….things don’t always go as planned. The U.S needs to take control of the oil otherwise they will be broke and have nothing to show for all the money that they spent. Things don’t always go as planned.
they will be broke anyway
spending $$xxbillions to grab and defend oil negates the value of the oil itself
Hm, well what if (one of) the aims was to deny the resource to CHN at all costs? In that case even botched circumstances laying ahead is still winning (for a decade+)! Given the giggling body language onboard AF1 this Sat all is swell inside the petrodollar world..
That’s the body language of manic mass formation. Mania. Apocalyptic mania. Human directed energy weapons on a suicide mission. It’s a unique comportment. Nota bene I haven’t seen the video but through your eyes. Please confirm the diagnosis.
Yes, most likely, they were on the plane giggling when answering the press on board, the <200x school kids in Iran were self-inflicted wound instead.
And that just few hours before the next nightmarish attack, literally raining oil today in aftermath from these thick clouds of burned fuel depots around Tehran.
If you can’t make this shit up, then you can know that the Hand is running a theatrical misdirection play. Hand be a theater geek.
Norm something has been sticking in my craw but I figured it out.
Why, if the Hand is hiding peak oil collapse at all costs, is the Hand overtly making Venezuela and Iran about oil? Doesn’t that hit a little too close to home for the Hand?
Obviously I had realized that the oil narrative services the ‘blockade of China’ WW3 controlled opposition narrative. But it was more than that because Trump’s clown show is clearly also desperately acquisitive beyond its Sinophobia, which opens up the mainstream to asking itself why. But that evolution of questioning takes time, especially when the mainstream media is tightly controlled.
The answer I hit upon is that the Hand is making it explicitly about an oil grab despite the risk of outing peak oil, because that is how the history blogs will explain that the critical oil infrastructure of ME is left untouched amid the catastrophic devastation. Trump wanted the oil, so the US and Israel made sure not to touch the field and transit infrastructure. Otherwise there would expectation that Israel would go for the production sites themselves and above all Kharg would be gone by now. But the ‘oil grab’ narrative provides water tight cover for that.
what hope is there when American citizens elect someone like this to public office?
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2030656663405895877?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2030656663405895877%7Ctwgr%5Eb1a76c8edb848bb58a9c0b702435324799d3cbdf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffpost.com%2Fentry%2Flatest-news-live-updates_n_69a562ade4b0d383f503f9f5
reante
i dont want to be rude because i sense that you mean well…
but i think the only hand you have to worry about is the one up your fundament, working your essential parts
Not at all Norm. Thanks for sensing that.
🤣
Nathaniel. Exactly, things don’t always go as planned, especially in the “fog of war”. Believe Addie Hitter of Germany found that out after invading the sub human Russians. Years ago I watch a docufilm with Robert McNamara
Excerpts from the film ‘The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara’ meant to elucidate what we are really getting into when we start wars and give individuals the ability to annihilate our planet
Robert McNamara admits Vietnam War a mistake..flv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5_tgND4XQE
We were wrong and apparently making the same mistake again
? McNamara profited like 0.0000000001% from the action.
The gains were tabulated elsewhere he was a pretty face on the delivered box, mere limited payroll only if you will.
Sorry, this argument “Vietnam War = mistake” is a nonsense..
If you think that the Vietnam war was a success, the more fool you…unless you call enriching the war manufacturing industries a success.
The same here, after this so called special military operation, the arms stock shot up, pun intended.
This will have as much “success” as the Afghan, Iraq and Vietnam war…
Quark has said khrag island as a landing point… the Iranians must know this… might be a lot of causalities… I’m not sure how they are going to win the hearts and minds of the people by bombing desalination plants. I would be worried about Israel doing the same as they did in palastine
“Nathaniel. Exactly, things don’t always go as planned, especially in the “fog of war”. ”
Everybody has a plan till you get hit in the face .— Mike Tyson
If you want to argue please contact Mike Tyson , he will elaborate .🤣
No you are right things don’t go as planned. I think the plan was that if they knocked out the leaders, Iran would collapse and that is not the case. I wonder what a land invasion would entail? The trumpet administration are not the brightest bunch Hegseth Seems like a carnival Barker and acts like it too. Everyone in that White House is afraid to tell him the truth.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 8 days. Everyone thinks this is about oil. This is about what oil becomes. 92% of the world’s sulfur comes from refining oil and gas. Close the Strait of Hormuz and you don’t just lose 20 million barrels of crude per day. You lose the feedstock for sulfuric acid, the single most produced chemical on Earth. Sulfuric acid is how we extract copper. It’s how we extract cobalt. Without it, you can’t make transformers, EV batteries, or the substrates inside every data center on the planet. One chemical, made from one feedstock, shipped through one chokepoint. The cascade goes further: Qatar ships 30% of Taiwan’s liquefied natural gas through Hormuz. Taiwan has 11 days of reservations left. TSMC, the company that makes 90% of the world’s advanced chips, draws 8.9% of Taiwan’s total electricity. No gas, no power, no chips. Then food. 33% of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait. Half of all humans alive today exist because of synthetic nitrogen. Sulfur, semiconductors, food. That makes three supply chains, one 21-nautical-mile chokepoint, and zero domestic alternatives at scale.
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2030442633190072767
Falling sooner will be less painful. This is a blessing.
Even though most will never admit it until it actually happens, I think we can all at least see now that the only plausible way out of this path that leads to the rapid, chaotic collapse of this civilization within a single year, the kind of cascading industrial collapse that we pre-Non-Public Degrowth Agenda fast-collapsniks always theorized, is an American military coup. Only an American coup and a global Go Fund Me- style reparations scheme will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
A World Go Fund Me, for World Peace, with Stablecoins.
Welcome to the Big Nuclear Scare. Unless you believe in it with all your heart lol, it”s gonna be so big that you’re gonna think you might be dead within a year. Otherwise it won’t work. Enjoy the horror show. Don’t get traumatized by it. Use it as a training ground. That will take focus.
Reante “Even though most will never admit it until it actually happens, I think we can all at least see now that the only plausible way out of this path that leads to the rapid, chaotic collapse of this civilization within a single year, the kind of cascading industrial collapse that we pre-Non-Public Degrowth Agenda fast-collapsniks always theorized, is an American military coup.”
Agree to the dot . The tragedy is that ” the theory is becoming a reality ” and only what many of us will be able to say ” I told you so “😭 . Sad , very sad .
Thanks ravi, but no, the theory is becoming a meta reality that the Hand is exploiting in order to avoid fast collapse. I’m sure you agree that things aren’t quite bad enough yet to justify a military coup of the United States of America.
I also agree with Reante’s take. It is beginning to look not beyond the bounds of reason that Trump won’t continue until 2029. And a coup may be what the Hand is planning as part of our entertainment passage.
Unlike the first term, where staff and the “Deep State” often tempered his impulsiveness, Donald Trump’s second term is being described as “Full Trump,” with fewer internal constraints.
Never go “Full Trump”!
In his first term, he was compared to Julius Caesar and assassinated in effigy in a production of the Shakespeare play of that name in New York.
In his second term, he has been compared, more understandably, to Caligula, who was famous for… Well, Google AI says:
“Caligula’s four-year reign (37–41 CE) was an erratic, autocratic, and terror-filled tyranny defined by a bitter, deadly struggle against the Roman Senate. He demanded to be treated as a living, Hellenistic god-king, utilizing extreme cruelty, lavish spending, and public mockery of elites to display absolute power. His rule was marked by paranoia, sexual excess, and, ultimately, assassination by his own Praetorian Guard. ”
Which Roman emperor Trump will most closely resemble during his third term is anybody’s guess.
Incidentally, what has happened to the 250th anniversary of American independence? Are major festivities planned?
Alright Big T!
Yeah great addition, the coup had to happen before the 250th independence day. Perfect.
The following photo is one for the history books. Tulsi’s only public appearance since the war started. Silent public appearance. But the picture paints a thousand In the photo she’s in the situation room at the start of the war, looking down and symbolically fingering her wedding ring. Hindus wear their wedding ring on their right hand, the honorable, virtuous, pure hand.
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/BgBEcKi9DIMuXBi3MBAUvQ–/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTI0MDA7aD0xNjAwO2NmPXdlYnA-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/thedailybeast.com/594d93e5007bfb67fd957ebe603d9d5d
Real or Not Real ladies and germs?
Welcome to the Mysterion!
This is interesting because yesterday, Dominique de Villepin, who is likely to be the next president of France, said the following on television:
https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/tu-detruis-tu-repares-dominique-de-villepin-propose-un-systeme-onusien-de-reparation-des-guerres_AD-202603080277.html
Do you remember De Villepin? His 2003 speech on the war in Iraq made France very popular with the people of the Middle East.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNxU-tN8qNc
Now he’s back.
To sum it up in four words : “you destroy, you repair”
Could you estimate from your viewpoint, how realistic is that announced planned wide-european nuclear umbrella suggested by Macron and demanded (willing to co-pay for it) by several countries already such as BL, NL, DK, Fin, .. ? Btw. meant as launchpads also based in other countries not only radars etc.
Is that project going to continue under de Villepin or other french presidency.. ?
I can’t be sure of it but the nuclear umbrella looks like a narrative and may never exist. I doubt that De Villepin would follow this idea. He is a “Gaulliste”. Not that I have illusions about him but Reante is right: he fits perfectly. Apart from him, the political scene here is a desert. No brains, no ideas, no talents. Villepin is much above and his ties with China could be useful. But who am I to know ?
Thank you for the clarification and viewpoint on the matter.
That’s why I stressed in the second part, this time the situation changed profoundly across Europe, lot of crazies in the govs, e.g. Finland or the Greenland-Denmark vs US threat etc. So, there will be re-newed pressure on France to provide such umbrella in the first place, people literally spraying you (FR) with money spigots..
Bout fucking time you reappeared with a major piece of the puzzle in hand, Thierry. Missed you man. I’ve never known who would be the French leader because Le Pen has never really fit the bill and I don’t follow French politics, but de Villepin, who vaguely rings a bell, looks pretty perfect on paper. Thanks!
i could be wrong though. Thanks Reante I am really busy with my job but always read carefully your writings. Please keep posting your highly valuable work.
Not my expertise . Villepin is good . I remember his speech at the UN opposing the GWB2 Iraq war . Sophisticated and eloquent . However he is in my opinion past expiry date and has been missing for too long . I don’t know if he still has a strong base . France has been wasted by the two terms of Sarkozy , one term of Hollande and two terms of Macron . Total 5×7=35 years .
Me I’m gonna Toucan Sam it, and follow our nose – it always knows! Sam is the cartoon character for a children’s breakfast cereal in America called Fruit Loop.
It’s no surprise that “fruit loop” is American internet slang for a crazy conspiracy theorist.
Nested within the crazy conspiracy theories are the deepest and most true ones. The yin and the yang.
If you say that he’s positioned to like be the next President, then he probably is going to be, like you said.
I’m wondering how Germany is going to shape up since my long-time call for Wagenknecht to step into the breach seemed on shaky ground last time I checked last year. And also England since Jr and Demiurge said that Farage has no structural path to being the next PM despite leading in the polls. I think he’s leading in the polls.
Thanks for dropping in, no pressure regarding commenting. Glad you’re too busy.
Let me correct you Ravi, the term is 5 years long and Sarkozy who was elected in 2007 did only one. So it has been 20 years not 35. Villepin is younger than Trump or Biden when they were elected (I mean the second time for Trump). Plus, what happened in 2003 will be remembered in the ME. I used to live in Stockholm then, learning swedish with other immigrants. Most of them coming from the ME, and I used to be popular among them because I was french. They really loved me for that.
Who was the biggest reason they loved you? You, de Villepin, or Zinedine Zidane?
Heading,
“You destroy, you repair”: Dominique de Villepin proposes a UN system for war reparations
“Any country that engages in an illegitimate, illegal intervention must pay the price of rebuilding what it has broken,” the former Prime Minister asserted, believing that the decisions of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu should have “real and tangible consequences.”
Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin argued on BFMTV on Sunday, March 8, for a UN mechanism that would force countries responsible for “illegal” wars to pay financial reparations, in light of the hostilities initiated by Israel and the United States against Iran .
NATO is pretty much gone, however. And I wonder how long the UN will able to continue.
We will see. Reante’s idea about the global fund echoes what De Villepin proposed yesterday. I don’t really believe in coincidences. That seems very well orchastrated.
Replenish, Thierry’s calling non-coincidental god mode on this dissident. God mode in orchestration with the de Villepins of the world out on the astral plane. Could be lol. That one ring on Tulsi’s fingie might not actually be a wedding ring.
NEW: Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan warns it may halt ethylene production at its Tokuyama and Chiba plants if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues blocking naphtha imports. The facilities produce about 16% of Japan’s ethylene, a key material used in plastics and manufacturing. is this true? and if so, what does it mean?
Gemini has said
This is true, and the impact is potentially devastating for the Asian manufacturing industry. The news reflects the “state of panic” that has gripped the Japanese petrochemical industry this March 2026 due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Here I explain the technical details of why this is so serious:
1. The vulnerability of Idemitsu Kosan
Idemitsu is Japan’s second-largest refiner. Its plants in Tokuyama (Yamaguchi) and Chiba do not use crude oil directly to make plastic, but rather naphtha (a petroleum derivative).
The naphtha problem: Japan imports the vast majority of its naphtha from the Persian Gulf. Without passage through the Strait of Hormuz, ships carrying this raw material are either blocked or diverted.
Capacity at risk: The Tokuyama plant has a capacity of approximately 623,000 tons/year of ethylene, and the Chiba plant (in a joint venture with Mitsui Chemicals) contributes another 550,000 tons. Together, they effectively control about 16% of national production.
2. What does a shutdown of these plants mean?
If these plants shut down, it’s not just that Idemitsu stops making money; it’s that the first link in Japan’s industrial chain is broken:
The Domino Effect in Plastics: Ethylene is the “base atom” of modern industry. Without it, there is no polyethylene or PVC. This will immediately affect the manufacture of automotive components (dashboards, bumpers), food packaging, and medical supplies.
Blow to Technology: Japan is a leader in high-specialty resins for manufacturing displays and semiconductors. These resins rely on byproducts from ethylene plants (such as propylene or benzene). A shutdown in Chiba could paralyze electronics assembly lines worldwide.
Cost Inflation: With supply suddenly reduced by 16%, the price of ethylene on the Asian spot market has already risen by 20% this week. This will be passed on to final products within months.
3. Why don’t they use their reserves?
As we mentioned before, Japan has oil reserves for 254 days, but it has no equivalent reserves of refined naphtha.
The Japanese government is considering releasing crude oil from its strategic reserves (as Kyodo reported on March 6), but refineries need time to process that crude and convert it into the specific naphtha needed by ethylene plants.
Time is running out: Petrochemical plants typically only have two to three weeks’ worth of naphtha in their operational tanks. If ships don’t arrive by mid-March, technical shutdowns will be unavoidable.
Impact Summary
Affected Sector Severity Immediate Consequence
Automotive (Toyota/Honda) High Shortage of technical plastics and foams.
Electronics (Sony/Panasonic) Critical Lack of epoxy resins for circuit boards.
Average food prices: Increased cost of all plastic packaging.
Stock Market (Nikkei 225) Very High Drop in chemical and export stocks.
In conclusion: Idemitsu’s warning signals that the energy crisis is shifting from “gasoline prices” to the “physical paralysis of industry.” If Japan, the world’s fourth-largest economy, begins to shut down its industrial heartland, the crash we discussed at the beginning of our conversation is much closer than it seems.
Copy/paste Quark
Just for information purposes. Gas storage in EU at an all time low and Putin says “Thank you, I am busy. Don’t call me, I will call you.”
https://agsi.gie.eu/
https://korybko.substack.com/p/putin-might-finally-deal-his-long
🔴Making a U-turn!
LNG carriers are being diverted from Europe to Asia. Europe is among the biggest losers from the halt of LNG exports from the Hormuz Strait. Gas storage was already low at the bottom of the 5-year range.
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2030521066792116255/photo/1
The situation is very difficult for the EU. The energy security of SE Asia is in the hands of the National Governments of the country with over $500 billion EACH in reserves that they will use to buy LNG, crude oil etc. I am talking about Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam etc. Meanwhile in the EU the trade is done by private corporations for example Repsol, ENI, Total, Shell, BP etc. They cannot match the buying power of the governments. I have info that these were 4 tankers of LNG which were diverted to Japan because Japan paid $4 per bcf extra than the EU importer.
Governments of Far Eastern countries seem to recognize how important LNG is for their manufacturing industries.
In Europe, LNG is used more for creature comfort. This doesn’t generate as much interest from governments.
The bidding wars .
Several shipments of Russian Urals crude intended for India are being diverted to other Asian countries.
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2030627787837460957/photo/1
Someone will get the Russian’s Ural Crude, at a fairly high price. This gives the buyer diesel and jet fuel.
it might be a pleasant pastime, and weve all indulged ourselves—-
but flying where we like at 600mph is ultimately consuming the planet to satisfy our vanity….
ultimately the planet itself will put an end to it…