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The underlying problems are energy-related
A few years ago, I analyzed the growth of world energy consumption, breaking it down into (a) the growth in energy consumption needed to support the growth in world population, and (b) the growth in energy consumption available to support higher standards of living. This analysis covered the period 1820 to 2020. I found that periods of low growth tended to coincide with wars, depressions, and collapses. This is not surprising in a world economy governed by the laws of physics. Every part of the economy requires adequate energy of appropriate kinds.
In this post, I analyze data for 5-year periods, ending in 2024, to obtain an updated view of recent energy consumption and population trends. My conclusion is that total energy consumption growth in recent years has not been sufficient to forestall major problems. A more detailed analysis reveals that growth in certain vital resources (the diesel+jet fuel part of oil supply, and critical minerals related to electricity production and usage) is particularly problematic.
These findings indicate that the economy is already beginning to hit energy limits. Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries, even though these actions might not make sense to peace-loving citizens.
[1] Figure 2 is a stacked bar chart showing similar indications to Figure 1.
The total of the red and blue segments is the average annual increase in world energy consumption over a particular 10-year period. The blue amounts (usually at the bottom) are those necessary to provide services at the same level as in the past, given the population increase. The red amounts (usually at the top) are determined by subtraction. Large red caps are good, while red caps below the zero line are very bad. They indicate that the per-capita energy supply is declining.
[2] The largest increases in Figure 2 correspond to favorable economic times.
The vertical text in Figure 1 provides examples of how low points in energy consumption have proven to be very bad. In this section, I show that the opposite is also true: High points tend to correspond to very good times economically.
One peak in Figures 1 and 2 coincides with the 1901 to 1910 period. This period corresponds to early electrification and advances in the mechanization of agriculture. It was before 1913 when the United Kingdom hit peak coal, limiting the amount of coal that could be profitably extracted. Germany hit peak hard coal shortly before World War II. After peak coal was reached, less coal was available per capita. Leaders felt the pressure of “not enough coal to go around” and opted for war.
In Figures 1 and 2, rapid energy growth occurred after World War II, during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. The lower peak in the 2001-2010 period coincided with much greater use of coal after China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001. High-wage countries started transferring their industry to China because costs would be lower in two ways: Wage costs were lower, and coal was an inexpensive fuel, reducing energy costs. Furthermore, by transferring industry, including manufacturing and mining, to China, high-wage countries could also lower their own CO2 emissions, as required by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
We would expect the patterns we are seeing in Figures 1 and 2 if the world economy is governed by the laws of physics. The availability of plenty of inexpensive energy, of kinds that match built infrastructure, is what is needed to allow the world economy to grow.
[3] Figure 3 shows more recent world energy data organized by 5-year periods. It shows how small the “red caps” of the types leading to favorable economic outcomes have been in the last decade.
The latest two 5-year periods comprise the years 2015 to 2024. The short red caps on these two 5-year periods mean that the economy is already being squeezed in the direction of not-enough-to go-around.
[4] Viewed on this same basis, diesel and jet fuel supplies are being squeezed even more than the overall supply of energy products.
Diesel and jet fuel are somewhat similar in composition. They are grouped together in some energy reports as “middle distillates.” They are relatively heavy oil products that come out of oil refineries. If there is a shortage of one, there likely is a shortage of the other as well.
Diesel and jet fuel are of concern because, since 2015, there has been an actual shrinkage in the amount of these fuels available relative to population. In fact, every five-year period since the 2000 to 2004 period has shown less growth in diesel and jet fuel than in the overall world energy supply. (Compare Figures 3 and 4.)
The low growth of diesel+jet fuel is particularly concerning because these fuels are essential for international transportation. With too little of these oil types, trade across the Atlantic and Pacific needs to shrink back. The physics of the situation makes tariffs look like an attractive solution for reducing trade.
Another concern is that diesel is essential for food production and transportation. Even if some other types of energy are available in plentiful supply, we cannot get along without food. While wind and solar are popular energy types today, they are not very useful for either international transport or for operating modern agricultural equipment.
[5] The underlying problem is that populations tend to outgrow their resource bases, including energy supplies.
The issue of the world not being able to support endlessly rising human population is an issue that no politician, auto maker, or economist wants to mention. The standard work-around is to show energy supplies without using an adjustment to a per-capita basis. This tends to make the energy situation look much better than it really is. Figure 6 is an example of such a chart.
Figure 6 emphasizes how modest the recent add-ons to the fossil fuel supply really are. These add-ons are made possible by fossil fuels; they would tend to disappear if fossil fuels were to disappear. Nuclear, which is the largest of the add-ons, requires both uranium and fossil fuels. The category “Wind+Solar” is the tiny green stripe at the top of Figure 6. In 2024, Wind+Solar amounted to 2.8% of world energy supply.
[6] It is easy to make electricity look like a growth area that can continue its pattern forever.
Figure 7 is a world electricity chart that, like Figure 6, is not on a per-capita basis.
There are a few details that are easy to miss:
(a) Current electricity production is quite small compared to the total energy supply. As counted by the Energy Institute, electricity amounts to only about 20% of total energy, varying by year and by part of the world. It is already incorporated in Figure 6.
(b) Almost all the non-fossil fuel part of the energy supply (“Add-Ons”) is electricity. In Figure 6, the only type of non-fossil energy shown that is not electricity is biofuels. These are mostly ethanol and biodiesel.
(c) Another detail that is easy to miss is the fact that the growth in the world’s electricity supply, as shown in Figure 7, has been almost exclusively outside the Advanced Economies–that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Advanced Economies group includes the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and several other countries.
Figure 8 shows the growth in electricity generation separately for the Advanced Economies and the Other Economies. The chart shows that generation of electricity by the Advanced Economies grew until 2007 but flattened after that date. Electricity generation by the Other Economies has grown the entire time since 1985. The rate of electricity production growth of Other Economies became noticeably more rapid after China joined the WTO in 2001.
Also, population growth since 1985 has disproportionately taken place in Other Economies, as contrasted with Advanced Economies.
[7] In the Advanced Economies, electricity production has recently been falling on a per capita basis, making a shift to greater electrification seem difficult.
A major issue is that the Advanced Economies are already seeing their electricity supplies per capita declining as shown on Figure 10 below. This is true for all five of the selected economies. Some of the lower consumption is due to efficiency improvements, but some is the result of the offshoring of jobs and industries to low-wage countries.
In comparison, electricity production per capita of other economies, with typically lower wages than Advanced Economies and often accompanied by more rapid population growth, has tended to rise, as shown on Figure 11.
The four “Other Economies” are less similar to each other than the five Advanced Economies. But what is striking is that they all have shown growth in per-capita electricity production since 1999. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s electricity production had risen to about the per-capita level of the US’s electricity production. By 2024, China’s per-capita electricity production had surpassed that of both the EU and the UK. Russia was part of the Soviet Union before the latter collapsed in 1991. Once Russia’s economy had started recovering from the collapse, about 1999, its per-capita electricity production also began to rise.
[8] Other issues are also making a continued shift to electrification appear difficult, particularly for the Advanced Economies.
Trying to work around using fossil fuels leads to the need for more specialized minerals to produce high tech electrical goods and electricity transmission. The problem faced by Advanced Economies is that they produce practically none of these minerals; they must import them. The US has a long list of minerals it considers critical.
Some of these minerals aren’t rare in the earth’s crust. Part of the problem is the lack of industrial capacity in Advanced Economies today, as industry has been moved overseas to reduce costs and local CO2 emissions. For example, the US used to be a major producer of aluminum, but this production has dwindled; other countries, including China, can produce aluminum at lower cost.
Another issue is that China produces the majority of quite a few of these minerals. The US, and probably the other Advanced Economies, had planned to buy what they needed on the world market. Now, production is not keeping up with the amount the world could easily use. In 2025, China announced export restrictions on some minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. It has become clear that if Advanced Economies want to have adequate supplies of high-demand minerals (including silver, copper, platinum, rare earth minerals, and uranium, among others), they need to start producing them themselves.
Diesel is used in extracting many of these minerals. If diesel is in short supply, that adds another layer of problems. All these issues may lie behind President Trump’s interest in Greenland.
[9] We don’t hear about these issues partly because academic researchers live in ivory towers, and partly because politicians don’t dare explain the issues to voters.
Part of the problem is that economists don’t understand how tightly the various parts of the world economy are interconnected through the laws of physics. Economists tend to believe that if there is a shortage, prices will rise, and these higher prices will solve nearly all problems. This is not necessarily the case. Buyers cannot purchase more than they can afford. Prices may spike temporarily and then fall back. Production of fossil fuels or minerals may end because prices do not rise high enough, for long enough, for producers to depend upon the higher prices for the long term.
In the case of a shortage, most people assume that the only change the economy will make is in prices. However, the economy is tightly interconnected. It can move production to a different part of the world, where wages and energy costs are lower. An indirect result, in the country losing jobs, may be more wage and wealth disparity. The US seems to be experiencing this issue now, with fewer young people being able to find a job that pays well.
Needless to say, politicians aren’t willing to admit, “We have difficulties for which we can see no solution.” Even leaders of universities are reluctant to suggest that there might be major problems ahead. They don’t want to frighten students or their parents. University officials want all problems to be ones their students can work on, with the hope of solving them in the next few years.
[10] What is happening now is similar to the outcome of a game of musical chairs, when there is one fewer chair than the number of players.
In the game of musical chairs, players walk around a group of chairs until the music stops. At the end of each round, one chair is removed, leaving one fewer chair than the number of players. In the next round, the remaining players all scramble for the chairs available, which often leads to small fights over who gets a chair. This not-enough-to-go-around problem explains the poor relations we see today among countries and political parties. It is also the underlying reason for the interest in imposing tariffs and in bombing other countries.
Financial markets tend to perform well during periods of economic growth. However, if certain kinds of essential resources are in short supply, this will tend to hold back growth. Debt defaults and falling stock markets could result. For these reasons, problems in financial markets may be ahead.
Major governmental changes may be ahead. Representative governments require more energy than simpler types of organizations, such as dictatorships. Furthermore, citizens do not like disorder; they may want to overthrow leaders who seem to allow too much disorder. They may vote them out of office or even try to assassinate them. The problem of resource inadequacy is structural, however. Getting rid of a particular leader doesn’t necessarily help the situation.
Everywhere in the world, at least part of today’s problem is that there are not enough jobs available that pay well. Economists have told us to expect high prices if there are shortages. In a way, not having enough jobs that pay well is the opposite problem. But from a physics standpoint, the result is the same. Only a few people can afford many of the goods that are available. The economists’ misinterpretation of what is going wrong further confuses people’s understanding of our current situation.
Mainstream media needs to cater to advertisers. Because of this issue, we cannot expect them to tell us what is happening. That task seems to fall to bloggers, like me. I try to write an article approximately every month. I hope that the graphs and other figures I have presented in this article will help readers understand why we are currently seeing more types of disruptions, such as tariffs and bombings.
Anas Alhaji has made a free post which was in Arabic . 18 mpbd gone — 50% of global exports gone .
https://open.substack.com/pub/anasalhajjieoa/p/public-no-paywall-the-hormuz-crisis?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Very hard to keep up. This is happening in Iraq and confirmed from a couple of sources. This is Ai
According to reports on March 22, 2026, U.S. and NATO forces requested a 24-hour truce through the Iraqi government to withdraw personnel from the Victory base in Baghdad. This follows intense attacks by local resistance factions against NATO positions, which prevented aircraft from landing at the facility, say local reports.
If all of these troops are leaving from Iraq how soon until the government will not allow payment for oil to go to a bank in The USA.
One of this article’s key points is this one:
Western analysts overlooked a key factor in the current disruption: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven not by Iran but by actions linked to the United States. Iran has neither closed the strait nor attempted to do so, and such a move would run counter to its own interests. The sharp drop in shipping traffic through the strait stems primarily from insurance companies canceling war-risk coverage or imposing prohibitively expensive premiums. Shipowners and charterers, facing these conditions, have largely halted transits rather than risk uninsured voyages, whether this reflects direct coordination with the Trump administration or simply a market reaction to heightened tensions.
Hello Ravi, I hope you are doing fine, thanks for this article.
I’ve read it all.
In my view, it is a very interesting article, but it goes totally in favour of US in its conclusions (!!!).
It so much in favour of US’ gains in this match that it is even weird and suspect..
I’d like to know what do you think and also what Gail and drb753 thinks about it.
Many thanks for your feedbacks
Kind regards to all of You
I also read it. He certainly corroborates his statements but the conclusions are hard to believe. He basically says that th closure is a western false flag, presumably to drive up the price of LNG and (I guess) encourage a coalition to form so that the US is less isolated.
Other sources state Iran is collecting toll, which is directly contrary to Iran being an innocent an uninvolved bystander. Russia certainly has geopolitical and economic interests in keeping the straits closed and the war going without too much escalation. China also in having Shanghai manage the financial part.
At this point I think that he might have written that article to let the Gulf rich families believe that it’s worth going on leaning on US, because it is still the strong bull in town..
Additionally, he wrote that article first in Arabic.
After FE was featured on Zerohedge, I half expect Kulm to be featured in the MSM media, weighing in on the need to sacrifice those 5000 marines. “Let us not repeat the errors of Chucky!” thundered history expert Kulmthestatusquo, who righlty fears the West will disappear if we do not take the 35km2 island.
FE can barely write coherently.
In the recent past, he obviously had been copying and pasting the writings of others, and the credits are either totally absent or well hidden.
I’m sure that he didn’t write the article picked up by ZH.
FE is a big ffraud.
ooooooo
the curse of eddy be upon you—
he’ll come back and insist on regaling you with his inadequacies and—er–shortcomings—
then youll be sorry…
still—now he’s not here, the annual OFW BS oscar will have to go to someone else…
And the good news is that, thanks to FE’s absence, you are in the running for that Oscar, Norman.
I take your word for it.
oh, and…
BAU tonight, baby!
just not so much in the ME and Asia and Europe.
Hey good to see you around .
I hope you are well, this might be a very tough year for many.
If I recall you are Canada based . Appreciate if you make a post on what is happening there . Always good to have info to connect the dots . Rgds .
I was born and have lived my whole life here in the USA northeast.
it appears that the USevilEmpire will be little affected on its North American land, for now.
I’m getting into my late 60s and am too old to move anywhere else.
I expect high inflation later this year, not so bad considering the severe problems that loom just ahead for much of Asia and Europe.
As we had few exchanges over Surplus there I guess that ~delayed [ 2035-2050 ] scenario envelope got shortened recently..
Certainly to my dismay and mid term planning for the yrs before the end of decade.
On the other hand realistically it could have been derailed already at previous instances ~10-25yrs ago or even earlier, so the buck stops with us ( each individually )..
Hi David!
When I see your moniker here, I always think of dark chocolate.
As a marker of inflation, I can report that the cheap German-made Belgian dark chocolate I can buy here in Japan in the Gyomu-Supa (a supermarket mainly for commercial users such as retailers) has shot up in price. The large 400g bar used to cost 450 yen in 2020, rose to 600 yen around 2022 or 23, then disappeared from the shelves in 24 and 25. Now it’s back in the store at an incredible 1,100 yen, more than double its 2020 price.
It’s still affordable although no longer cheap. I am also not very confident that it contains much chocolate. For quality, you can’t beat Belgian chocolate made in Belgium or Swiss chocolate made in Switzerland.
hi Tim!!
as I always say, high priced dark chocolate is better than no dark chocolate.
72% Ghirardelli here is about $15 a pound.
overall US food inflation this decade has been significant, most definitely higher than published numbers.
Auto de FE. Ritual sacrifice. Hustler got his thumbs broken. Watch for future posts with no spaces between words.
Good pun!
If Eddy ever writes an autobiography, that would make a great title, and if he uses it, you deserve some royalties.
Auto Da Fay is the title Fay Weldon dreamed up for her 2002 biography, of which I happen to own of a copy. I read a number of her novels one after another around that time and found them entertaining. Little did I know then that by poking fun at the patriarchy, they were helping open up the Pandora’s box of Woke Wankery that has raged like a forest fire throughout the West since then.
The crime of Chucky and the 200/400 Worcestershires are so great that Worcestershire deserves a thermonuclear weapon.
The few thousand marines might not capture the island but their sacrifices will trigger the entire opinion of USA, and make them go against Asia. it is belated but not too late
A new cold wave in Europe
From 18 degrees to zero: Slovakia is in for a sharp drop in temperatures and a return of freezing weather
https://spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/793199-z-18-stupnov-k-nule-slovensko-caka-prudke-ochladenie-a-navrat-mrazov/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_3clanok_box
If I understood it correctly they had 38-41.5C in Texas few days ago..
Simply, can’t under$tand people living there; obviously all chain air-conditioned: home, carz, shops, office spaces, factory floors, govs, ..
people cant ”live” there—its totally artificial
Agree Norm . Like I said earlier ” Dubai is a boob job ” . 🤣 no different . Add Phoenix , AZ .
dubai always was ridiculous–you only have to look at it…
camel traders and goat herders is what they were
and what they will be.—
i wouldnt advise anyone to leave their home turf at the moment…
I’m talking about drawing a LINE in the sand, Dude.
https://houseofsaud.com/neom-2026-the-line-saudi-arabia-status-update/
Go back a century, there was very little air conditioning anywhere in the US. You were lucky to have a rotating ceiling fan.
In Texas, many people used to sleep in tree houses in hot weather to get a bit of breeze. And they mad liberal use of damp cloths to get some relief from evaporative cooling.
And yet they survived, and sometimes they even thrived.
Paradoxically, hot weather is easier on the old folks, as they are relatively metabolically inactive. Hence the attraction of places like Texas and Florida for retirees.
Also, globally, the tropics harbor countries with high populations and high fertility, despite the heat and humidity issues. Humans are highly adaptable to a wide range of environments.
Having the same problem here in Belgium . Thrice this month I have switched off my heating only to switch it on again . Hey , watch out for El Nino this year . With all the crises happening worldwide this will be the icing on the cake . Take care guys .
With enough fossil fuels, people can live almost anywhere. The problems comes with the fossil fuels are no longer available.
From technical viewpoint you are correct, but I don’t get the “wiling participation” portion of the *decision to move or stay in such a place long term. Well, it’s about some mindset problem, as it is apparently way better life to spent in less fancy suburb northbound US (or even ~rural) be it with fewer consumer trinkets as “disadvantage”..
It’s almost like flocking en masse into inferno central or similarly as noted recently throwing own children into bonfire.. for what and why?
—
* yes most people are just born into this devilish cycle of all previous generations in recent memory only having ~urban/metropolis derived backgrounds
Three issues:
1. The climate keeps changing.
2. Resources like oil, coal, and mineral extraction are only found in particular locations. Jobs with respect to these resources are also found in these locations.
3. There are way too many of us humans to fit in only the areas with the nicest climates. The world is now overpopulation, especially if fossil fuel supplies are limited.
1. I guess ” Tex-Arkana ” hitting record heat waves also in the 1950s and or earlier..
2. Yes, it was implied in my text, people made and continued that decision given perceived priorities up to present time..
3. Well, not true in the context of the debate, US North and CAN are empty outside metro areas..
Heat wave and records have been set in Texas every 30-35 years starting in the dust bowl era (hint….this is long before hydrocarbons being blamed for global warming). Firs the 1920-30s, then the 50s, then the 80s and then 2010 era. Not climate change change but …WEATHER.
Jesse is one of the few people who “gets” it about climate/weather cycles.
Researchers doing research, although not necessarily wearing white coats, have identified a climatic cyclicality with a period of about 35 years. It is known as the Bruckner cycle, after Eduard Brückner, a German climatologist and geographer (1862–1927). He studied climate variations, especially cycles of glaciation and climatic change.
Whether it is a real cycle or not is something that climatologists and meteorologists can’t make their minds up about. The trouble with climate is that there is a lot of cyclical variation going on with the various forcers operating on different timescales, and they can reinforce or interfere with each other.
BREAKING: Slovenia is now limiting how much fuel people can buy as some gas stations run empty.
https://x.com/PeterSweden7/status/2035713017317298217
And they are situated just ~besides all that IT petrochemical and port loading infrastructure ready for imports from the whole word.. now imagine landlocked countries inside the continent.
Well, the limits are still positioned rather low-ish.. (seems like first step)
—
Slovenia limits fuel purchases as pumps run dry – Reuters
http://www.reuters.com › business › energy › slovenia-limi…
Fuelling at individual service stations is limited to 50 litres per day for private vehicles and 200 litres for legal entities and private …
This article is from Sydney Australia on March 10, so perhaps not up to date:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/regional-petrol-stations-ration-fuel-as-panic-buying-drains-diesel-supplies/news-story/26e8033b4330b8ec13d345a1280b6b8e
Regional petrol stations have limited fuel purchases to just $20 per customer as panic buying in cities creates severe shortages across country Australia.
This is what ABC is reporting today in Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-22/iran-war-leaves-asias-oil-refiners-scrambling/106470932
Australia facing ‘crunch time’ as oil shortages begin to hit Asian suppliers
The last South Korea-bound oil tanker to make it through the Strait of Hormuz before it was effectively closed only just arrived yesterday.
The Eagle Vellore departed Iraq’s Al Basrah Port in the Persian Gulf on February 26 carrying about 2 million barrels of crude oil.
Once that oil is used up, the country will pretty much have to go to plan B. That is when the real problems are likely to hit.
China is not supplying exported oil products to Australia any more. The concern is that other Southeast Asian countries, with limited oil imports, will prioritize their own citizens first.
This is a trailer of what a collapse will look like .Global Oil Shortage: After Days Without LPG, Migrant Workers Forced To Return Home In Gujarat .https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbohySnrO4c
This is quite believable. The CC’s are in English.
Miguel
2h
Quark, excellent analysis as always. Several points that I think deserve clarification, and some new elements that Armstrong just published today on his private blog that change the picture.
On Gilt and the real threshold of LDI collapse
The threshold at which the Bank of England intervened in an emergency with Liz Truss was not 7%, but 4.99-5.00%. British LDI pension funds had their risk models calibrated for Gilts below 5%. When Gilts crossed that level in October 2022, the funds received massive margin calls and had to sell Gilts to cover them, which further lowered the price, raised the yield, generated more margin calls—the classic spiral of forced liquidation that compelled the Bank of England to intervene in an emergency by buying Gilts indefinitely for 13 days.
The Gilt rate is currently at 4.946%. It’s less than 6 basis points away from the threshold it reached last time. This isn’t a theoretical benchmark—it’s the exact number the market knows and is monitoring. When it crosses 5.00%, which could happen tomorrow, Monday, given everything that’s transpired this weekend, the Bank of England will have to choose between printing pounds to intervene or letting pension funds collapse. Neither option is good for the pound or for the credibility of the British financial system.
Actual state of the attacked nuclear facilities
This week, lines were crossed that hadn’t been crossed since the beginning of the war. The US attacked the nuclear facilities at Natanz; the IAEA confirmed structural damage to two buildings, although there was no radiological leak, with the relevant detail that the Iranian enriched uranium was no longer there but in Isfahan under rubble from previous attacks.
Iran, for its part, attacked the Dimona area in Israel, and the most serious consequence was not the impact itself, but Israel’s failure to intercept the missiles aimed at its most sensitive nuclear facility. The Arrow-3 system malfunctioned in the country’s most heavily fortified area.
The Iranian Parliament explicitly stated: “If the Israeli regime cannot intercept missiles in Dimona, we have entered a new phase of the battle.” The Israeli Chief of Staff publicly confirmed the same conclusion from the other side: “Berlin, Paris, and Rome are all within range.”
Iran also launched missiles at Diego Garcia, 3,800 km away; one failed in flight and the other was intercepted by a US destroyer. This is the first time Iran has demonstrated range beyond the Middle East with operational ballistic missiles.
Bessent’s statement on Kharg — the real objective of the war.
Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly suggested in an interview that the Iranian island of Kharg, from which 90% of Iran’s oil originates, could become “an American asset.” His exact words were “we’ll see” when asked if Kharg would eventually end up in US hands.
The fact that it is the Treasury Secretary, not a general, who mentions this is not accidental. He is describing the financial logic of the war: the US has a war debt that needs to be paid with real assets since the Gulf states are not going to pay the $2.5-$5 trillion that Trump is demanding.
Kharg, with its export terminals, is the region’s most valuable asset. It’s the logic of Iraq 2003, undisguised, this time the energy objective is openly declared before it’s seized. Bessent is also the same man who has been manipulating oil futures for weeks to artificially keep the paper price below the physical price, which already reached $173 for Oman crude on March 17th. The disconnect you describe between the real economy and the Matrix-like economy has a name: Scott Bessent.
The 5,000 marines, a partial bluff with a specific objective
The amphibious troops the US is sending, estimated at around 5,000 personnel with armored vehicles, cannot take the Strait of Hormuz. To secure Hormuz, between 50,000 and 150,000 troops would be needed, occupying 50 miles on both shores and penetrating 100 miles inland on each side, plus a permanent no-fly zone. 5,000 is less than 10% of what is required. Attempting to do so would be Gallipoli 2.0 with hypersonic missiles; Iran has been preparing precisely that defense for four decades.
But 5,000 marines can indeed take Kharg. The island is 35 km², has a limited Iranian garrison, and is 80 km north of the Strait entrance. That fits perfectly with what Bessent announced yesterday. They’re not going to open the Strait of Hormuz; they’re going to take the island that produces 90% of Iran’s oil as economic leverage and as “payment” for the war. The problem is that Kharg is to Iran what Dimona is to Israel: an existential red line. An attempted landing on Kharg would trigger the Samson Option on Dimona, which is the most likely nuclear scenario, although not before June according to the models.
There is a new vector that no one is looking at: the Gulf sovereign debt.
Armstrong adds today an element that I believe is the most important and the least covered. The Gulf states are heavily indebted, and the collateral for that debt was the continuous and predictable flow of oil and gas revenues. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, South Pars damaged, and Ras Laffan partially destroyed, that flow has been structurally disrupted for months. This means that the collateral for the Gulf’s sovereign debt has partially disappeared. Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait have issued debt in international markets with their energy revenues as implicit collateral. If those revenues are not recovered in the short term—and with the damage to South Pars, that could take more than a year—markets will begin to reprice the Gulf’s sovereign risk upward.
A sovereign debt crisis in the Gulf, coupled with the European bond crisis we see every day on the panel, Gilt at 5.4bp below the LDI threshold, France at 32bp below the ECB threshold, JGB rising +3.30% in one day, and with the American HY Credit Spread rising systematically since January, would be the confluence of three simultaneous debt crises that central banks cannot manage at the same time.
This is the scenario Armstrong calls the prelude to the global sovereign debt crisis around 2028, and the Gulf, which seemed immune because of its reserves, has just entered the picture.
On Monday, when the US markets open, they will process everything that happened this weekend. With the Gilt index at 5.4 basis points from the LDI collapse, Trump’s ultimatum waning, and Bessent talking about Kharg, it could be the most volatile day since the start of the price war.
The confluence of these variables—Gulf debt, Gilt at the limit, accelerating HY Spread, and Trump’s ultimatum expiring this week—suggests that the preparation period many of us have been discussing is coming to an end.”
This is a copy/paste from Quark . Pay attention to the financial parts of the post . The bond market is what is always important . Yesterday I had informed on the sell off in the Indian govt bonds and rise in yields . This is a template for a worldwide crisis . All bond sales are a promise in the future but now there is no future .
Kharg, of course, is 800 km from Hormuz, not 80. so the marines will have to depart from on of the gulf states. volunteers are scarce.
Add in sovereign wealth liquidation, zero real estate value in the gulf (how about the underlying mortgage?), Middle East Bank runs and exodus of expats..
Thanks Ravi
The US bond market is also rattling .https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/20/treasury-yields-spike-10-year-to-4-39-30-year-to-4-96-mortgage-rates-to-6-5-as-the-bond-market-gets-antsy/
The 30-year rates are still near 5.0%, even with all of the cutting in longer-term rates.
If oil prices go high for very long, interest rates in general will rise because inflation will rise.
Very interesting! US interest rates also are rising. This creates problem for banks holding bonds issued at low interest rates. The US will need more debt to keep fighting this war (in fact, to do anything). The US has difficulty paying the high amount of interest required on existing debt. Higher interest on more debt will make the situation close to impossible to handle.
Netanyahu: It’s time for leaders of other countries to join the war, and some of them have already begun moving in this direction.
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2035668217008718324
Satan needs help? I thought the Israel and the US won the war and there was nothing left of Iran?
Maybe if Europe would have let the jews stay after WW2 we wouldn’t have this problem.
Just sayin..
The guy is dead, but translating the whole “Iran missiles can reach Europe” thing:
– If you don’t enter the war, we’ll hit you and blame Iran
Then they’ll be forced to enter the war, or risk openly antagonize Israel and suffer the consequences by the US.
It’s the Samson option, it’s a veiled threat, a blackmail.
But I don’t think Europeans should fall for it.
Netanyahu does seem to be alive:
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/benjamin-netanyahu-makes-first-live-appearance-amid-death-rumors-im-alive-and-youre-all-witnesses-article-153876254
The clip in the article showed no witnesses and after watching,I wouldn’t vouch for him being real.
Let’s see some real escalation
https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2035776169656676675?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2035776169656676675%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fenglish.almayadeen.net%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fghalibaf-warns-us-treasury-bonds-buyers-are–legitimate-targ
Alexander Mercouris latest is one that he describes as a shorter video than usual. It’s only an hour long, and it’s titled:
Iran Missiles Hit Dimona After US Israel Natanz Strike; Israel Shock; Nuclear Fear; Kiev Panic Grows
He thinks everyone has 1h+ every day to devote to him. and he could easily deliver the same info in 10m. Before AI there was Mercouris.
Bingo! He is too wordy and tends to dominate the discussions when he is on The Duran. What is even more irritating is his vocal inflections and bobbing around in his chair as if he’s in a Rally car.
I found it is much easier to read the transcript than to listen to him and his videos tend to last 1.5 hours, sometimes even a little longer than that…..(“just saying” which is his catchphrase)
business opportunity: summarize Mercouris in 5 minutes with AI avatar
He has to literally sit it out each day, it’s monetized channel(s) they (duranists) need that income, he does some side lawyerly gigs for ~BRICS in the City of London as well. Also used to work for RU msm in some ~contractor/contributing guest capacity..
Oh, I’m not really suggesting it, just a joke.
Rambling. Exhibit A
I have never watched Mercouris and never will.
a good way to make the most out of your life.
These are some excerpts from the transcript:
Regarding Israel’s attack on the South Pars gas field:
4:094 It’s not clear exactly what was attacked or what is on fire, but the evidence
4:164 suggests that the Israeli attack on this gigantic gas field in Iran caused
4:234 significant damage. We had the Iranian counter strikes against gas and energy
4:314 facilities across the Middle East. The fact that Qatar is now saying that 17%
4:404 of its gas production facilities have been destroyed. That its ability to liquefy natural gas has been
4:494 significantly degraded. that it may take years even after the fighting ends
4:574 before Qatar can return to its previous position as a major supplier of natural gas.
WIth respect to the missile that was shot down by an American rocket, on its way to the US base Diago Garcia, which is 4000km from Iranian territory:
5:595 This incidentally confirms the presence of American
6:076 destroyers, advanced destroyers close to Diego Garcia
6:136 stationed in order to protect the naval the naval base presumably from Iranian
6:206 attacks, which shows that the United States has been concerned about the
6:276 safety of this base notwithstanding its long distance from Iran.
6:366 And well, I made the point yesterday that the ability of Iran to strike at
6:466 Diego Garcia, to launch missiles towards Diego Garcia,
6:556 demonstrated an immense capability on the part of Iran. A number of
7:057 commentators have pointed out that until very recently, it had been assumed that
7:127 operational Iranian miss missiles had a range of no more than 2,000 kilometers.
7:217 The two missiles that were launched towards Diego Garcia appear to have had a range twice as
7:317 long. It’s been speculated that the Iranians achieved that by
7:397 reducing the weight of the payloads. In other words, the warheads of the missiles are lighter
7:477 than is more commonly used in missiles of this kind. And that has enabled the
7:567 Iranians to double the launch range, the range of these missiles.
…
9:169 In fact, Iran has
9:239 an apparent capability to launch missiles as far as London itself.
. . .
12:2712 I discussed again in my program yesterday
12:3212 show the damage to the F-35 fighter jet strongly suggested
12:4112 and strongly suggested that the reports which have been circulating that Iran now has a functioning S400
12:5012 air defense missile system supplied by Russia in north eastern Iran.
12:5712 a system that may be capable and probably is capable of tracking stealth
13:0513 fighters. Anyway, it may suggest that that information is true.
. . .
16:2616 And in particular, they seem to have target targeted Deona and Arad,
16:3416 two towns located close in close proximity to the nuclear reactor,
16:4516 which Israel began to build in the 1950s with assistance from France
16:5216 and which has been the center of Israel’s nuclear weapons program, which of course, as everybody knows, has evolved evolved long ago into a nuclear weapons program. Ever since,
17:1417 Deona is for Israel a critically important facility.
17:2317 It is apparently not especially heavily shielded or even protected.
17:3217 And besides, the Iranians have shown that their ballistic missiles are capable of penetrating
17:4117 Israeli air defenses, which according to many reports have already become
17:4817 overstretched and have become overstretched for some time.
17:5517 anyway, it appears that some Iranian missiles
18:0318 missiles apparently with cluster warheads managed to penetrate whatever air
18:1118 defense there was and appear to have done actual damage to the towns of Deona
18:1918 and Arad. There is as of now no information about whether there’s been
18:2618 any damage done to the nuclear reactor itself.
18:3118 Anyway, there appears to be widespread dismay.
. . .
25:1425 Joe Kent, the recently resigned director of the US
25:2225 intelligence community’s counterintelligence agency has given to the British magazine unheard.
25:3125 Over the course of this interview, Joe Kent made many claims.
…
26:4026 Suffice to say that Joe Kent over the course of this interview
26:4726 floated or discussed the possibility of a nuclear attack on Iran
26:5726 by Israel and discussed it as if it might become a real possibility
27:0627 and suggested that the United States government has been aware of this
27:1427 possibility and that this awareness and concern
27:2427 has played a significant role in American decision making and planning in
27:3227 leadup to the attack on the 28th of February upon Iran. on.
27:4027 So he at least and he was until a few days ago a senior
27:4727 official of the United States government and a important figure within the US intelligence community.
27:5927 He at least appears to believe that the possibility
28:0528 of a nuclear attack on Iran, obviously by Israel, is a very real one. It is something that might indeed happen.
28:1928 Well, given that this is so, we can start to see how exceptionally dangerous
28:2728 the situation has now become because with the attack on Deona,
28:3328 as I said, the nuclear thresholds have been lowered. But of course, it’s important to remember that those nuclear
28:4228 thresholds had previously been lowered by the Israeli and American attacks on the Iranian nuclear facilities.
. . .
29:5229 I cannot believe that the Israelis
29:5829 expected or believed before the start of this conflict that
30:0630 we might get into a position where Iran was not only standing and continuing to conduct strikes,
30:1630 strikes against Israel itself, against energy facilities across the Middle East.
30:2630 where it was exercising control of the straits of Hormuz and conducting strikes against Diego Garcia.
30:3630 I can’t believe that the Israelis really expected these things to happen, but I
30:4330 certainly don’t believe that they ever really imagined that things would reach
30:5030 the point where Deona itself was attacked.
. . .
34:4534 We see again the approach the neocons take to every conflict.
34:5234 They always advocate war. They always advocate
35:0135 a military solution as they would call it.
35:0735 They never really decide.
35:1235 They never really come up with a plan to mitigate against those risks
35:1835 in practice. And in fact, even when they acknowledge the risks, they always discount them
35:2735 until the moment comes when it turns out that those who warned about the risks,
35:3635 in this case, the risks of the Iranians closing the straight of Hormuz were
35:4235 at which case of course they blame someone else in this case Donald
35:5035 Trump for not preparing for the possibility.
35:5535 I have to say that when I read things like this from people like Bolton,
36:0136 I really feel I think word frustrated is altogether too mild.
36:1336 Furious takes us closer.
36:2036 I just wish that just once in a while
36:2636 these people would accept blame and responsibility for what they do.
36:3536 Anyway, there it is. For the moment, we are at this potential turning point. The
36:4436 attack on Deona is in my opinion even more significant than the attack on
36:5036 Diego Garcia. What the Israelis do and we’ve seen how Ben has now made himself
36:5936 visible and he’s absolutely going to be the person who’s going to advocate for an even more forceful actions against Iran. Anyway,
37:1337 what now depends is whether the process of escalation,
37:1737 which even Reuters is now saying is now spiraling out of Donald Trump’s control,
37:2637 whether this process of escalation will continue.
37:3137 If it does, if we see more attacks on nuclear sites,
37:3837 then I’m afraid over the course of this year,
37:4337 the possibility that nuclear weapons are going to be used at some point becomes very great.
42:3342 I at least am not surprised that Hezbollah has proved to be a much more
42:4142 formidable adversary than the Israelis anticipated when they resumed operations in Lebanon.
. . .
44:2644 there are now further reports that the Houthis in Yemen are saying that they
44:3244 now preparing to join this battle alongside Iran.
. . .
Still,
45:5145 if the United States is seriously contemplating a ground operation against Iran,
46:0046 it may before long have to start to
46:0646 prepare for the possibility that even as it pits whatever ground forces it has
46:1546 against the Iranians in the Persian Gulf,
46:1946 other conflict zones, South Lebanon, the Red Sea area might be burning.
46:2946 And well,
46:3146 there have been rumors and reports that Saudi Arabia and some of the other
46:4046 Gulf states may now be under pressure themselves to join the war against Iran
46:4846 and that some of their leaders might be thinking of doing so. I think that would be an incredibly unwise thing for them
46:5746 to do. It would merely make it
47:0347 more easy for the Iranians to attack their energy facilities, which they have
47:1047 shown that they are incapable of defending themselves and which the
47:1747 Americans are incapable of defending for them. And of course hanging over this
47:2447 whole issue is the possibility of Iranian attacks on the desalination
47:3247 plants in Saudi Arabia. And I recently saw a report that even though Iran
47:4147 relies on desalination for just 2% of the water it provides to the cities.
47:5347 Saudi Arabia depends on desalination for 70%
48:0148 of the water of its water needs, its fresh water needs. And of course,
48:1048 hanging behind in the shadows of this conflict are the Russians and the Chinese.
48:2048 I’ve seen discussions and speculation about how the ultimate objective of this war is
48:3048 indeed the total destruction of Iran. My very good friend,
48:3948 former British ambassador Craig Murray,
48:4248 has published a very interesting and insightful commentary along these lines on his blog,
48:5248 I would say about that is that given the size of Iran, given its apparent cohesion, given the vastness of its territory, the size of its population
49:0449 any plan to try to destroy Iran or to disintegrate it is inevitably going to
49:1049 take a very long time. Um Craig Murray speaks about an operation that might last years.
Much of the remainder is about the Ukraine conflict.
Thanks for the transcript, Gail.
Guys, I fully realize Alexander M is not everybody’s cup of tea. He used to be a barrister until he was disbarred for bad behavior. And you can tell he misses not being able to argue cases before judges and juries in court.
Also, you must realize that he has become a British institution. He’s done for the Ukraine military situation what David Attenborough did for cuddly animals and Patrick Moore did for astronomy—and all without the support of the BBC!.
I like listening to him, but I can only spare the time once a month or so.
Lizard guy David Icke called out the current crisis perfectly back in 2014.
Using Ukraine to attack Russia and starting a war between Israel and Islam that would create a vortex to draw the rest of the world into World War III……
And to think, Norman thought David was bonkers.
https://x.com/conspiracyb0t/status/2034722635746353284
Dracula doing the Monster Mash right there. The graveyard smash. Predecessor to the next-gen Great Reset.
Providing cover for the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. Making mythical monsters out of civilizational Elites that clinically chase the Glide Path Option.
Icke got grown-ups glued to Saturday morning cartoons.
Speaking of Dracula, even if Bibi is dead, it can only be a matter of time before he rises again when a few drops of blood splatter onto his dust.
To resist him is useless.
To rise against him is futile.
To know him is eternal damnation.
“Bring her to me. BRING HER TO ME!”
That’s Tulsi, huh? damn, drb was right.
Teen footballer killed and friend in coma after ‘e-bike battery explodes’
“An aspiring footballer has died aged 16 and his friend is in a coma after an electric bike allegedly burst into flames in a London home.
Tommy Ballay-Dean, known as Junior, died at his friend Shauny Halsey’s home in Southwark, south London, on Wednesday after a blaze broke out.
https://metro.co.uk/2026/03/21/teen-footballer-killed-friend-coma-e-bike-battery-explodes-27574909/
tragic end for teenagers indeed, not single case out there..
via cheap flammable batt. chemistry vs. (speed-overcharging) bad q. charger.. it’s like early steam engine era accidents or car crashes in paper weight metal no inner crash zone vehicles upto 1970s..
also bad-lacking consumer info/outreach as you simply demand (set) batteries of NOT say NMC based chemistry but something more like LiFePO4 and including fire retardants Yttrium; also into future solved w. incoming solid state chemistries..
Not being critical but I’m from a different generation and relied on muscle power bike travel at his age. Today, where I live, lots of young people his age utilizing two wheel e bikes speeding along without any regard to safety 🦺 or car vehicles on the road they share. I know, would like an old boomer, but it’s the truth. Too bad about the tragic death and injury.
Suppose there are many more we don’t read about..
I thought the same thing too. At their age just use your legs. And the bikes cost ten times less.
i have a 25 year old body, but somehow i’m stuck with 90 year old knees…
how will that work?
i take delivery of my electric car tomorrow—but thankfully not an electric buggy yet.
Affordable exo-skeletons are now on the market, small feather weight, non obstructive. Basically, it’s just a sporting waist belt with two “s curved plates” going down around hips and there it’s connected to your legs. So, elderly people can go upstairs again etc.
It has been initially prototyped for carrying-loading heavy shells into the artillery gun for several hours per day.. Now the lite versions for general public hit Asian – Western market..
PS what brand / type of EV did you choose? An econobox or small city van ?
i’m getting a renault zoe—seems ok for what i need—i dont do 000s of miles any more…
as to the exoskeleton, i dont think it will do much for my superman image if if have to stop and squirt on some wd40 next time i have to catch a girl falling from a high building…
Well, I guess it was mentioned (strongly recommended) to avoid .fr production in this segment. Also it’s NMC batt. so pls. park it only on the street not in garage or close to your house. So, good luck.
In terms of these new avg. consumer exoskeletons, you don’t need WD40 for it. Btw. I’m few decades younger and I’m sold, it’s absolutely essential even now when moving and extending larger tools like saws, pruners etc. Usually, there are two options either hips or knees tailored system. The former is more for younger people moving heavy cargo, and the knees system is for all 40-60+ age with joint instability / post-injuries etc.
thanks for that jr—i found it fascinating—never knew there was such a thing available—
so far, i’m very lucky, my knees are just a bit stiff if i sit too long–takes about 10 paces before they work properly, then everything is fine–i can still deadlift 100lb no problems, no aches etc next morning…
as to ev charging, i hope there wonr be any probs, my garage is detached from my house, and i wouldnt do long charge times anyway—just short top ups.—ev input is always interesting though.
Norman, you are very lucky to have joint-knees in great shape.
In terms of the garage, just invest few quid in some sort of rudimentary combined smoke and fire detector and put it there.. Also ask around for normal sized fire extinguisher and check the water spout near garage is in working order, yes it can be hosed down as well..
The fire hazards inside batteries while charging usually stem only in part from the charge level itself! It’s often interplay of various electronics modules, shi#$y batt chemistry, shoddy wiring, previous user abuse and so on.. That’s why are these accident so unpredictable..
—
Lithium-ion battery fires are Class B fires, indicating the presence of flammable liquids, so a standard dry chemical or ABC extinguisher can put them out.
Water works just fine as a fire extinguishing medium since the lithium inside of these batteries are a lithium salt electrolyte and not pure lithium metal.
While water or foam may appear to put out fires out quickly, lithium-ion fires can reignite as breached cells are met with oxygen. Keeping sprinklers running.
Water mist has proven to be effective for containing a lithium-ion battery fire, but a copious amount of water and time is required.
..
.
useful info jr—thanks—not a subject im familiar with.
i might charge it outside, then put it away afterwards in my garage.
the whole thing is a reputable setup, so i dont expect probs—i think a lot of these battery fires are cheap batteries taken indoors for overnight charging, mine wont be like that.
Norm> sorry again. I don’t want to stress you in any way shape or form – BUT you CHOOSE the cheap battery chemistry already (and its integrator Nissan-Renault).. also assuming it’s an used one, so that’s another x %% multiplied risk on top of it.. (say previous owner rapid charged it, flooding, drove it to material stress damage, .. ).
That’s the focal point from which all other aspects are derived and why offering just few of the precautionary basic hints here..
UK video review, but there are many other brands, basically of the ~same system:
https://youtu.be/2_x0rcfvARI
Norm
I saw a three wheeler electric bike the other day. It had basket in front with one wheel and two wheels in back.
ty ty mob
but not quite there yet—maybe 5 years from now i’ll think about that—
‘Aspring’= no great loss
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-19-21-god-is-a-comedian
One excerpt:
The logic, insofar as there is any, goes like this: the war has crashed the global oil market so hard that the administration needs the enemy’s oil to keep gasoline prices from eating the midterms. They are unsanctioning the people they’re bombing because the bombing is working too well at the thing they didn’t want it to do. The sanctions were necessary to stop Iran funding the war, but the war made the sanctions too effective, so the sanctions had to be lifted to fund the war effort against the country that no longer needs sanctions because the oil revenues that sanctions were preventing are now required to prevent the economic damage caused by preventing those revenues, which is itself a consequence of the military campaign designed to make the sanctions unnecessary by making Iran the kind of country that doesn’t need sanctioning, which it would be, if the sanctions hadn’t been lifted to pay for making it that.
Bennett Tucker of the Spectator
How AI is reshaping the Iran war
https://archive.ph/2e2L8
This seems to be the latest from Donald Trump:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce84073mr06t
Trump says US will ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if it doesn’t open Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours
That will mean the destruction of every port and refinery in the Gulf as a response. Not exactly a stellar plan.
Exactly
If the plan actually is the one of the (somewhat regulated) Global Degrowth – then why not stellar?
Welcome to Mystery Science Theater 3000, brother x. Collapse ain’t even the scariest part. What’s scary is that there’s only 3 of us warm bodies in the peanut gallery and everyone else is an appatlrition on the movie screen. Because 3 is the magic number. BNS gonna BNS, coup gonna coup, decommissioning gonna decommission, and there’s still only gonna be three of us. Now THAT’S Collapse. Neoteny come home to roost.
I blame it on you, reante – all of it (after Epstein, of course…)
Cuz I’m a flaming asshole who pushed everyone away from the truth, huh? That’s by design. Only the strong survive.
Epstein was my thing too, truth be told. Working in that homage to Marvin Harris’ “Cannibals and Kings” with ‘jerky’ and Lear? Yo, that was high art.
Still trying to figure out here if I’m an apparition or a character.
Nature of the 2D un-beast lol. To the warm body they’re mutually inclusive. But to be un-specific, you’re not Rowsdower I don’t think.
“This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”
You see, when the Big Nuclear Scare breaks nuclear and the story is not already inhabited, it’s already too late to See. (Everybody knows the rules, even davidina does.) The Scare becomes his story – the Hand’s cover story. Tim would once again harken back to the Tinkerbell phenomenon.
Iran is also warning that they will target every Desalination plant in the region.
Probably the plan all along. Thy ran out of AD, and of Tomahawks. China needs to send a missile close to a Louisiana refinery right now. If not, expect years of high oil prices, massive infrastructure damage, including desal. plants, and world decreased oil output. Also, serious AD in Venezuela although the USA may have run out of missiles for good due to rare earths supply.
CEO of QatarEnergy said “it will take five years to rebuild the damage done already”. Said called Trump and told him not to attack. smh
“To be an enemy of the US is dangerous. To be a friend is fatal”.
– Henry Kissinger
A lesson for all: if you hear a bomb land then do NOT stand by the window to see what is going on. Get down low.
https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/2035469766878548330
Incident updates: https://x.com/jacksonhinklle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFLB1J_sOuw
A new global food crisis: farmers can’t get fertilizers out of the Persian Gulf (5:17)
47,634 views Mar 20, 2026
Fertilizer prices are skyrocketing as cargo ships are denied access through the Gulf of Hormuz.
Major natural gas refineries, which source massive volumes of urea and other nitrogen-based nutrients, are offline and have declared Force Majeure on previous contracts.
Food prices are closely correlated with crude and diesel fuel costs, and will go up as a result of the doubling in energy prices.
But the crisis in fertilizer markets is an urgent problem, and the window will slam shut in just days on farmers who need urea for Spring planting.
Closing scene, Yandang Mountains, near Wenzhou, Zhejiang
A famine which will make 1845 look like a fast aession gone wrong is now certain
At least a 10% haircut by end of yr
0.8 billion dying of starvation! Much if India and Africa where it will be invisible.
Kevin Walmsley regarding effect of oil on fertilizer. I am skeptical the problem is as bad in the US as elsewhere–we use our own natural gas to make nitrogen fertilizer.
This is an article from March 18.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2026/03/18/8-retail-fertilizer-prices-higher-4
DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
All 8 Retail Fertilizer Prices Higher, With 4 Up Significantly
All eight fertilizers are now higher in price compared to one year earlier.
10-34-0 is 4% higher; potash is 9% more expensive MAP is 10% higher; DAP is 11% more expensive; urea is 14% higher; urea, anhydrous and UAN32 are all 23% higher and UAN28 is 31% higher looking back to last year.
The article mentions the Iran War and the blockage of the Straight of Hormuz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GSqJ1Ey9Rc
The End of the Petrodollar? How Iran War Is Reshaping the Global Economy: Author Laleh Khalili (16:47)
236,558 views Mar 19, 2026
Professor of Gulf studies Laleh Khalili lays out the global economic implications of the effective closing of one of the world’s “major choke points for oil,” the Strait of Hormuz. “It doesn’t benefit the average U.S. citizen … at the gas stations, but it does benefit the oil companies,” says Khalili. “The higher the price of oil goes up, the relatively cheaper it becomes to actually have sustainable alternatives. Of course, that means that it benefits China … since China is way ahead of the rest of the world in producing these technologies.”
Laleh Khalili talks like a university professor. She doesn’t understand that wages are likely to be badly affected, if oil prices go up. There will likely be recession and layoffs.
Maybe China will benefit, but it will be a difficult transition, to whatever replacement fuels and electricity are used.
I’m not an EV advocate but in a recent podcast the point was made that China has been transitioning to EV’s and nuclear power. They lead the world in low cost EV’s. So perhaps they will not be as affected by the Strait of Hormuz as would Europe.
i’m changing to an ev—-but im under no illusions about my food being produced and delivered by diesel
If anyone is interested, this is an interview between Mario Nawfal and Malcolm Nance. Malcom is a former US military planner, strategist and advisor who served in multiple ME wars in the 80’s and 90’s. The interview is a little over an hour but it is worth the listen.
He goes onto explain why Iran’s war strategy is working and why the US war plan is failing and actually playing into the hands of the Iranians. He also shares his wartime experience when he was on the USS Tripoli when Iran mined the Straits.
They start by talking about the two different strikes that hit fairly near nuclear power installations, one in Iran, targeted by Israel; and one in Israel (Dimona), targeted by Iran. Israel was the first one to bomb near one of Iran’s nuclear plants; Iran retaliated in kind. Malcom Nance believes that staying a little ways away from the nuclear facilities was intentional. The purpose was to show that they could bomb the power plant, if they wanted to. But letting all of the radiation out was not really the intent.
Fuel siphoning from cars parked on the street has actually started happening now… What’s next, seriously?
https://x.com/KatyKray73/status/2035473649361428780
Georgia took off the state tax on diesel and gasoline for 60 days. The reduction on gasoline is about 33 cents per gallon. For diesel, the reduction is about 37 cents per gallon.
Diesel in SW Florida is close to $6. I remember back in the mid 80’s when there was a push to get people to buy diesel powered cars because diesel was so much cheaper than gas and at that time a gallon of gas was around 90 cents.
Perhaps several layers of influence, tug of war, chicken and egg. The output of fields, refineries changed.
Not sure about the timing perhaps came a bit later when Europeans/Japanese mastered smaller displacement diesels (1.8-2-2.5L) and then in mid-late 1990s and 2000s even smaller 1.3-1.6L diesel..
Then came the small displacement turbo gasoline engines of today.
Meanwhile JAP brought that gasoline serio-parallel prius hybrid and now ~30yrs later the licenses probably lapsed so even all budgets brands ala Nissan-Renault or Korean or CHN have it too..
Next junction (if economy doesn’t implode) is plugin hybrids with ~small solid state battery. Or EVs and that’s brutal cut off in liquid fuel usage..
Also as apparent from the Iranian msm as of recently, large part of theirs and overall ME fleet runs on natural gas.
Well that’s Georgia dumb for ya! High prices restrict waste. Conserve and change your lifestyle at this point
The AI video says the few remaining interceptor in Israeli are being used exclusively to defend the government.
Has President Trump abandoned Israel? Finally stood with the American people?
Which AI video?
looks like it has been removed from youtube
Brain eating virus ripping thu the UK.
Parents of student, 20, who died ‘bleeding from her eyes’ after contracting Meningitis B thought their daughter was protected
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15664805/Parents-student-died-Meningitis-vaccine.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=social-twitter_mailonline
TOWIE’s Jordan Brook reveals meningitis diagnosis as he shares update from hospital
“The Only Way Is Essex star Jordan, 31, revealed he’s been diagnosed with both viral meningitis and encephalitis. He insisted to his followers to not listen to rumours online, as he’s caught wind of speculation on his health as he spoke in the video shared on his Instagram page.
Jordan, who is expecting his first child with Sophie Kasaei, remains in hospital and is receiving round-the-clock care and is being monitored for seizures. He spoke out sharing details around his current health battle in a candid video from his hospital bed.”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/breaking-towies-jordan-brook-reveals-36902836?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=main&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1774090063
I think this illness is really quite rare, rather than truly ripping through UK.
Don’t listen to rumors online, folks! Listen to the mainstream media as your “single source of truth.” Listen to trusted sources such as the BBC, the Daily Mirror, and the Daily Telegraph.
As it happens, the Telegraph reported in November 2025:
Schools across the UK were locked down this autumn as part of a state drill to tackle the threat of a new deadly virus.
Exercise Pegasus, which concluded last month and involved all major government departments, was the biggest pandemic simulation exercise the country has ever held.
Those participating in the drill were told a novel enterovirus had broken out on a fictional Island in southeast Asia before spreading across the world.
Unlike Covid-19, which disproportionately affected older age groups, the new virus was most lethal in the young. The virus, “EV-D68”, was said to cause respiratory failure, brain swelling and – in rare cases – paralysis in infants, children and teenagers.
As online rumor-monger Miri observes:
More than 90% of meningitis cases are said to be caused by enteroviruses, and are characterised by brain swelling. The condition most often affects infants, children, and teenagers.
In other words, the latest supposed “meningitis outbreak”, that is allegedly affecting the under 25s, is just a scripted pantomime – Exercise Pegasus gone live. The UK government simulated a meningitis outbreak affecting young people in November 2025, then in March 2026, the government’s propaganda division, the establishment press, tells the population it’s real. Just as happened with “covid”, when a “coronavirus pandemic” was simulated by researchers three months before one supposedly happened for real.
We don’t need to employ any professional statisticians to determine that the chances of simulating a situation which then promptly occurs exactly as you simulated it, just months later, twice, are effectively nil. The “meningitis outbreak” is no more real than the “covid” one was, and both of these situations are equally as real as the respective simulations – Exercise Pegasus and Event 201 – they were based on. That is to say, not at all.
https://miri.substack.com/p/meningitis-b-movie
Brain-eating virus ripping through the UK?
You don’t say?
No wonder there is such a lot of brain rot about.
Tim
“Her father, Paul Ward, said he didn’t realise she wasn’t fully protected against meningitis as she had received jabs for the A, C, W and Y strains as a teenager.”
Well, if she didn’t get the entire alphabet, there’s always a risk.
and even then. i think the 47 vaccines required to enter school in california are really too few. i am thinking 130 minimum.
US OIL PRODCTION (Declining)
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/weekly-crude-oil-production
Recent oil production may be worth watching, based on what the weekly data seems to say. Monthly data is now available only through December 31, 2025. It is usually quite a bit more accurate than weekly production. I usually only pay attention to monthly data, because the weekly can be quite distorted/
January 30 was the time of a big ice storm that affected quite a bit of production. I am not sure how much of that affected later dates.
This is a link to the EIA data, showing the same thing and the trading economics data.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
I guess the EIA has made major changes to its reporting on its website — I didn’t find their table, which was posted until this month, which showed monthly figures, through last November, for world crude oil production — where can I get such data?
World crude numbers are only through November. They are the same place as before, I believe. Here.
If you want monthly US oil production through December, it can be found here:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm
‘Fuel rationing IMMINENT in UK & EU,’ — Putin’s envoy Dmitriev
Calls out the 4-6 week ‘lag between reality & public awareness’ of politicians and media
In 2-3 weeks crisis ‘will be obvious’ across UK and EU.
https://x.com/RT_com/status/2035379236274368930
Austin Texas, NO SHORTAGE of gasoline signs appearing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/1s01m39/gas_shortage/#lightbox
What kind of world awaits us on ” the other end ” of it.. ?
Btw. 3+ weeks earlier when nightly temps started slowly rising from -15C noticed the nonmigratory high-IQ birds [ Corvidae ] such as magpies / ravens / .. abruptly going back into work on pre-built nests and finished it in few days after – the females inspecting construction / design and occasionally demanding some absolutely horrible-impossible twigs out etc. hah. Now enter the pigeons a month later just started dating no rush or panic. Seems there are parallels to (late/delayed) human behavior..
High prices will cut back demand quite a bit, I expect. This may delay any crisis for a while.
When prices rose sharply in 08 over 22 countries had food riots and the Arab Spring! (another thing to pay attention too)
You’re gonna need to hire assistant soon Gail.
This particular discussion was with respect to US gasoline prices. They are not closely connected to food riots. The US was not involved in food riots in 2008 that I remember.
Somethings I want to inform that is happening in India and which is a template for several devolping countries and not devolped countries .
1 . INR devalued by 5% in one month . Was INR 90.50 on 21st Feb — is now 94.02 . Expected to close 94.50 on Monday .
2. Monthly remittance from Indians in the Gulf was $ 4 billion per month . This month as of this date is about $ 1.75 billion ;
3 . Already informed you about the buying price of oil which was $ 75-80 last year is now $ 150 .
4 . Indian market sell off of Indian Govt bonds accelerated . The interest rate went up 10 basis point . More sell off expected and higher interest rates as oil price will feed into inflation .
5 .Subsidy bill for fertilizers is going to the sky . The govt is keeping silent about this .
6 . Currently refineries are losing $ 0.40 cents /lit on diesel and $ 0.20 cents/lit on petrol . The govt cannot raise the price as there are elections next month in 5 states .
7 . The stock market is in free fall as foreign investors are in selling mode .
NOW , the interesting part . An estimate by a leading economist is that the total cost of the war on the Indian economy which also includes loss of revenue will be between $ 250–275 billion . The total Indian budget is $ 585—600 billion .
This is exhausting .
ZH reports that Iran allowed Indian tankers to pass. True?
This guy has interesting updates. Real or not you decide. https://x.com/BinsaeedRashid
However he said only one Indian LNG tanker passed through only
From the thread:
🇦🇪 Rashid bin Saeed : راشد بن سعيد
@BinsaeedRashid
·
8h
IRAN’S HORMUZ SHAKEDOWN: THE NUMBERS
$2,000,000 — fee charged per ship by IRGC
89 — vessels that paid/cleared in first 15 days of March
$178,000,000+ — estimated IRGC collections in 15 days
$800,000,000,000 — annual revenue if 10% toll proposed in parliament is enacted
$100+ — oil price per barrel since blockade
18,000,000 — barrels per day disrupted (IEA: largest supply shock in history)
20% — share of global oil that normally transits Hormuz
95% — Japan’s oil imports that come through Hormuz
33km — width of Hormuz at narrowest point
5 March 2026 — date Lloyd’s cancelled war risk insurance for all vessels
12 March 2026 — date Iran’s UN Ambassador said “We will NOT close Hormuz”
15 March 2026 — date the exact same IRGC was charging $2M per ship
20+ — nations that signed condemnation of Iran’s “de facto closure”
0 — countries Trump has publicly named in his “Hormuz Coalition”
1 — country confirmed escorted so far: India (LPG tanker, last week)
1 — country in negotiations: Japan (FM Araghchi, Kyodo News, today)
Funny how a country that “won’t close” a strait
is making more money from it than they ever did selling oil through it.
– – – – – – – –
There was a story a while ago that one LNG tanker was allowed to go through, because of some specific thing India had done. I don’t think we know for sure how many more (if any) have been allowed through.
Yes , 1 LNG tanker was allowed . The problem is India needs 4 LNG tankers a day and not 1 in 3 weeks . I have posted this earlier .https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/comment-page-6/#comment-502967
Developing, Iran just attacked Dimona, nuclear research, small-er reactor (plutonium to bombs) site in Israel. At this point it looks as deliberate aim for housing outskirts not the key installations inside the complex..
BNS at play? Or (not second)last warning?
—
EXPLAINER – Dimona: What to know about Israel’s nuclear site
http://www.aa.com.tr › middle-east › explainer-dimona-wh…
9. 3. 2026 · Tehran warns Dimona reactor could be targeted if ‘regime change’ pursued, throwing spotlight on Israel’s opaque nuclear program – Anadolu
—
TODAY:
—
About 34 wounded, child in critical condition, in direct hit on Dimona
http://www.ynetnews.com › article
Iran says Dimona strike was retaliation for Natanz attack as about 34 people are wounded, including a child in critical condition, ..
—
Iran hits Dimona, Israel in fifth overnight barrage, 20 wounded as …
http://www.turkiyetoday.com › Middle East
Emergency crews are searching 12 sites across the southern Israeli city of Dimona after a building collapses and 20 people are wounded.
Hit Bushehr, Dimona gets it. Nothing to see here, and in fact I can see some attempts at de-escalating by the West (looking for off ramps perhaps).
“Hit Bushehr, Dimona gets it”
Get it they did and very precisely.
“Israeli Channel 12: The number of injuries from the Iranian missile strike in Dimona has risen to 47”
The final count and who they are is going to be interesting(so expect silence).
I guess Iran can fire anything/wherever they like now.
“Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, Brigadier General Majid Mousavi: From this moment, we declare Iran’s missile control over the skies of the occupied territories”
https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews
All nato forces are fleeing Iraq(loads more than you would believe), the US is emptying embassies all over the region after watching every base get destroyed, navy fled after a few hits, more planes getting hit, begging for talks, but winning because we said so.
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/03/21/a-great-reset-of-sorts/
Tim Watkins starts out:
There is a surprising amount of complacency here in the UK just now. People are complaining about rising fuel prices, of course. But we have yet to see the anticipated panic buying that leads to fuel shortages – filling stations quickly run out if everyone turns up at once.
He tells that the real shortage is yet to hit. It takes a 20 to 30 days to get oil to the US from the Middle East. So it isn’t bothering most people yet.
He ends:
The fact is that even the worse oil shocks of the past – the 1973 oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution – pale in comparison to the loss of oil and gas that Europe is about to experience. And it is doubtful that our elders and betters in Versailles-on-Thames have the wit to think beyond next week. Not least because on one side of them, the people with nose rings and blue hair will be telling them to embrace this leap along the road to net zero, while on the other side, the people with smart suits and 1980s ideology will be urging them to drill for oil and gas which doesn’t exist. Meanwhile, nobody will be looking seriously about how we simplify an oil-based economy which is going to have to get by with a lot less oil… a Great Reset indeed!
It is amazing how complacent the world is today!
The beginning of the end
Let me start by stating: the globalized world economy, unable to grow meaningfully for decades now, was on its deathbed already. Sure enough nominal GDP mostly kept growing but largely due to rampant financialization, not due to increases in real material value add. Simply put we hit natural limits to growth, which was never ought to be thought “sustainable.” Over the past decades we ran out of all the easy-to-get minerals, crude oil, wood, fish, topsoil etc., and what remained required a disproportionate increase in energy expenditure to get. Sure, the gross amount of stuff excavated, delivered, built and burned kept growing, but at an ever slower and slower pace.
As a symptom of this crisis world diesel consumption started to plateau around 2014, which meant a plateau in the combined output of mining, agriculture, transportation and construction worldwide. You see, machines performing these jobs didn’t get suddenly more fuel efficient, nor were replaced with electric “alternatives.” No, the flattening of diesel production/consumption worldwide was due to a lack of supply increases (when it comes to suitable crude to make diesel fuel from) and due to a lack of demand, as mining (especially coal) and global transportation/construction started to plateau then decline almost everywhere.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/iran-war-the-chickens-come-home-to
B has some interesting insights. He concludes:
We are witnessing epochal change, not only in warfare and world politics, but on a civilizational level, too. The world beyond the Iran War will be a profoundly different place. The US will no longer be the sole, unchallenged military-economic hegemon. Having depleted its missile and high-end weapons stockpiles in Ukraine and in Iran, it could no longer pose a credible threat to China—beyond intimidating its rivals with its vast nuclear stockpiles. Financially, the world will eventually move away from the dollar, but not day one after hostilities end. World oil supply would be permanently decreased, and petroleum production would never return to February, 2026 levels, as all major producers now face a terminal downturn in production. The world economy enters a stepwise decline, with the Iran-crisis induced depression being just the first of many drops in economic output to come. I wish I could end on a more cheerful note but, like it or not, that’s what ahead of us: neither an instant collapse, nor a return to normal.
Interest in group courses of fruit trees pruning continues to draw attention in Czech Republic – real life, it is an art
https://youtu.be/M9eJxC_819I?si=DDlIjdZlDfVJIg24
You have not replied yet on my question to your first pruning post ~2-3dayz ago..
I used to prune fruit trees for money when I as a student. can I help?
Oh thanks, but I was just trying redirect attention to nut fruiting trees in general in that thread:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/comment-page-5/#comment-502624
He didn’t ask you he asked MG, and he’s reminding MG in case he missed it. I asked you a question about your prediction and you decided to sort-of answer it in another place.
It’s the difference between big C Conservatism and little c conservatism.
I have replied, but it did not go through.
I have a walnut, but it suffers from Walnut Husk Fly. So I have planted hazelnuts now: Corabel, Halls Giant, Barcelona, Catalonia, White Filbert, Segorbe, Gunslebert etc.
“Rhagoletis completa, commonly known as the walnut husk fly, is an invasive tephritid fruit fly native to North America that has become a significant pest in Europe since the 1990s. It attacks walnut trees, with larvae feeding on husks, reducing yield by up to 80%. It is now established in Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia, and other central European countries.” Google Gemini
Oh, thanks for the effort.
Besides not having now enough places for real walnut trees – as prioritizing basal crop security (apples, plums, ..). Hence also settled in marginal areas as in put more effort into hazelnuts say over past ~5yrs (after-learning proper slow drying – eating Q1 next year after harvest not sooner) at least for my ~wilder varieties. Do you support the hazel bushes also with some in situ companion plants (pollination, nitro fixers, ..)? ; well in some more richer soils or with avail. manure it’s not needed at all but as advantage vs shaky weather patterns. My older neighbor doesn’t believe me, he pursues contradictory aims: short trimmed grass all seasons, coppicing these bushes hard-low each year, and obviously as result almost no dependable harvest y/y.. he simply persuaded himself I just got lucky, lol..
—
In terms of Walnuts and disease did you try some mechanical (non chem) tricks against the spread of that fly-worm locally ? People suggest several interconnected steps like obviously – immediately picking up the fallen fruit (so larvae can’t escape and dig down), but also if the tree is not extremely high also force on ~earlier harvest (when husk still semi closed) by gentle long stick rattling there in the higher up and so on.. Some could feed the spoiled ones to chickens also.. Obviously, if the general-regional area is very infected this will take many years to lessen the impact at one’s place as they overwinter in the soil / compost all over.. (if not mechanically destroyed or nudged to get eaten by house-yard mini dinosaurus as mentioned)
—
For pruning, any experience / advice with the [ Bypass vs Anvil ] hand pruners-scissors dilemma ? The basic “anvil system with no gears” meaning exchangeable blade can be had with all spare parts for the posterity. I’ve got some basic cheap bypass style Fiskars but the parts could be a problem into the future.. The ~pros in vineyards and such obviously have their high grade gear preferences, also some brands don’t have all the models in smaller sized (kids/f) hands – so they drop that manuf completely etc. so seeking advise is not neutral..
I do not see a big future for big trees like walnuts. When you take into acount how difficult and dangerous it is to remove dead branches on such big trees and the ageing of the populations, the answer is clear. Also, fungal diseases that affect the wood are common to walnuts. They take up a lot of space, too. I just keep this tree until it lasts. One of the pruning instructors in the above video recommends keeeping apple trees to a height of the raised hand. I totally agree with him: I have only such low fruit trees. (Hazelnust are, obviously, higher.) My neighbour has got an old pear tree and he fell from it some years ago and broke his arm. You have to keep the fruit as low as possible on the tree.
As regards the pruning equipment, I have some cheap stuff, maybe I could have bought something more durable.
I put some fertilizer into holes around the trees. I make the holes with a pointed tool that I made with a welder. I also started using shredded branches as a mulch around the trees.
Thanks for describing your approach.
I’d be only a bit worried about the longevity of such smallest height pruned fruit trees. Yes, the industry runs on very small trees (freq. replanted) and diy-small holders jumped on that trend now as well. It seems to me the end of 19th century (as peak orchard manual work approach) had it somewhat dialed-in / figured out to say ~3-4m height max (apples, plums, pears) which is still kind of safe standing on that wide base support ladder (at 1.5-3m); for some reason most people drop down from these tiny narrow ladders in the first place.. (perhaps assuming compact they hide in storage way better in their eyes).
These are exactly the “old-timer” varieties – specimen I tried to identify – hunt down around traditional suburbs and near forgotten industrial places.
They are easily identifiable from a distance as sort of very curly shaped almost like weeping willows.
Which is obviously with real estate boom almost futile, almost all destroyed that way or by new generation owners discarding such “unsightly” trees from house gardens for manicured lawns and grill setups instead.
noble/intelligent Czechs – and not “Slovaks”, Olejnik…
My grandfather had got a Czech surname. That surname is present here in Western Slovakia for centuries. We are somehow half-Czechs.
So you are half smart…I’m 100% Slovak from Kosice and Bratislava, so 100% not intelligent…
PS this is just kidding around…not serious
If you are from Kosice or Bratislava, there is a big probability that you have some German or Hungarian ancestors, too.
It is really tricky to talk about “Slovaks”, as now the president of Slovakia is of Italian origin (Pellegrini) and two decades ago we had a president of German origin (Schuster). You never know…
Let’s have a horticultural song.
The Move – Flowers In The Rain 1967
Here’s a small present for Norman. Jen Psaki (you’re very fond of her, Norman, aren’t you?) discusses Trump’s recent claim that opening the Strait of Hormuz is a “simple military maneuver” that will “open itself.”
https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2035297030168301775
The post says,
“Trump claims opening the Strait of Hormuz is a “simple military maneuver” that will “open itself.” Experts say it would require a massive ground invasion. The President is completely detached from the reality of the war he started.”
I am afraid that the President is completely detached from what is happening.
your POTUS is detached from any life except his own…
Hitler had the same problem—victories were always his—defeats were always someone else’s fault—-you can watch donnie say as much, time and again.
he’s going to walk away from this mess, saying it was Bidens or Obamas fault, or use nukes and say they forced him to…
he want s the oil of other nations, without knowing what oil actually is and does.
He’s stopped threatening canada now Carney has beat him at political arm wrestling…
i said he was bonkers in 2016, i dont need to say it anymore–though i daresay i will from time to time…
Please. Adolf was a better man than Trump.
more convincing hair anyway
At least Adolf wrote his own book.
I’ve never understood how people can see a resemblance between Adolf and the Donald.
In terms of temperament, bearing, and personality, Trump has always reminded me a lot more of Mussolini, the dude who Made Italy Great Again and made the trains run on time.
Here’s a short extract from a Musso speech. His warped mask of a face at the end, projecting power-crazed narcissism, is grotesque.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/9btbwjKI2e8?feature=share
So 140 million barrels “freed up” is actually 40 million stranded plus 100 million already headed to China.
40 million barrels is roughly 10 hours of global consumption.
The world is missing 400 million barrels from 20 days of Hormuz closure and the relief package is 10 hours of supply that still needs to be refined.
Trust the balance sheet.
https://x.com/BalanceSheetBS/status/2035340866815136020
Nearly 90,000 bottles of children’s ibuprofen medicine sold nationwide were recalled, according to a report posted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) this week.
In a on March 16 recall notice, 89,592 bottles of Children’s Ibuprofen Oral Suspension in 100 milligrams (mg) per 5 milliliters (mL) were recalled earlier this month because the medicine could contain a foreign substance. The medicine is contained in 4 fl. oz bottles, manufactured in India for New York-based Taro Pharmaceuticals, and distributed to retailers nationwide, it said.
The company, India-based Strides Pharma Inc., initiated the recall on March 2. The company had “received complaints for a gel-like mass and black particles in the product,” the FDA said, also describing the recall as ongoing.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/nearly-90000-bottles-of-childrens-ibuprofen-recalled-over-black-particles-fda-says-6001650?utm_source=morningbriefnoe&src_src=morningbriefnoe&utm_campaign=mb-2026-03-21&
So what’s ya gonna do now . India is itself low on API ( Active Pharma Ingredients ) . A component is methanol that was coming exclusively from the Gulf . Current stocks last till May . Nothing in the pipeline .
We should also expect shortages (or cutbacks) of Pharmaceuticals supplied to the US from China. If you are a diabetic, or use warfarin, you should be concerned.
We should not be surprised if we start running into “empty shelves” problems. Broken supply lines become a major problem, quickly.
There will be indirect impacts of the “empty shelves” problems too. We remember before that auto insurance costs went up when people had to wait months for parts to appear, and they needed to use rental cars while they waited. With any missing product, there is more demand for substitutes and more ways other supply lines could break.
@Jr the Returnique
The CRam is basically a land adaptation of the naval Phalanx system.
It is the old gatling gun, from the Civil War era, with some sensors.
Guess back to the basics wins in the end.
That aside, Israel is fighting a war of extermination. It will not end until the last Iranian perishes. This is not a war to make peace; it is to eliminate Iran as a threat, for ever.
YES
Yes I know it went from naval only to land app. eventually as it is great for immediately engaging short distance lobbing ~rpg and now small drones flying into compounds etc. ( e.g. action vids in Baghdad embassies area )
I’m just mesmerized by the initial idea, it’s basically taking the concept of wielding lasso or when (males) piss into an ant hill, basically that moving line – stream of fluid (or bullets) is what makes the repelling action so effective even w.out super precise aiming.
The gun itself with 4500rpm ammo flow and such curly twisted loading bay must be nightmare to service though, plus the are the automation aiming addons / optics etc..
But certainly one of the most peculiar, strange things out there.
Iran ready to help Japan ships pass through Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi says .
So who is the boss ?
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3347415/iran-ready-help-japan-ships-pass-through-strait-hormuz-araghchi-says
I understand that they have to prove they paid in yuan, and pay about 2M$ per passage. This is to pay reparations for support to the West. This is going to be permanent. Gulf states, of course, have to pay twice, for merchandise in and oil out. They mined the main channel and there is only one channel between those two islands which can be controlled visually.
Yes, everything has to go between the islands of Larak and Qeshm, once they have paid the fee in an acceptable form.
Permanent, certainly. Someone should tell Trump, as after saying the US craven force were going to go into Hormuz(before they promptly ran away. No surprise there), he then called NATO cowards for not doing what he said that the US would do and he now says Hormuz needs to be “guarded and policed by others”.
Sadly, he doesn’t appear to be the only person on the planet that hasn’t noticed, Iran is doing exactly that.
Fear not Donald, Iran has run out of the weapons that they are presently firing and will still be firing next week/month, even though they have definitely ran out and just ignore the fact that they keep revealing new ones(Nasrallah missile just a day or two ago. Showing off probably, as they can now get through just about anywhere with drones, which we need to remember when considering various claims). The IRGC release lists of all ordnance used for each and every wave. Far more reliable than western slopaganda.
Araqchi warned my sad corporate entity, but we’re too stupid to listen.
“These actions will certainly be regarded as participation in aggression and will be recorded in the history of relations between our two countries,”
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/03/21/3546031/iran-s-fm-warns-uk-that-joining-us-israeli-aggression-endangers-british-lives
Now I hear rumours that 2 missiles were fired at Diago Garcia, just after we oked the US to use it, but that is surely untrue, because running out, production destroyed and various other slopaganda.
Remember, when the west talks, ever accusation is a confession.
“once they have paid the fee in an acceptable form.”
That what CIPS is for! The Persian Shanghai bank account is going to fill up nicely.
I think so. The payment and what is acceptable as payment may not be the big news. The system of payment and who else is now getting on board(all of them. No other choice) would be much bigger news than $2m payments.
That might be why China a delegation to each of these nations on day one. Hand out the new rule book.
It would appear by our actions, that the strike at Diego Garcia was true.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/amid-reported-diego-garcia-strike–uk-moves-to-distance-cypr
We’ve officially joined the Coalition of the Spineless(whilst trying to deny any involvement).
Must be getting worried about that delicate spy station in Cyprus.
Delicatese on such place usually means the station is either tapping into globo internet cables on the bottom of the sea or listening to submarine traffic..
The missiles were supposedly of 4-5k range radius (one self crash the other intercepted), which is about ~1/5 more than previously estimated max range for Iran and so can hit a lot of targets in Europe.
The delicate(and most important from Iran’s perspective) part sits on top of the Troodos mountains, looking east. Next the base itself. Under the water in the Mediterranean, I doubt Iran cares(Turkey might be interested though).
We’re working hard to give them good reason to take it out I hear and so trying to look hard, we’ve parked a nuclear submarine in the Arabian Sea, although that might have just broken down(don’t tell the Iranians, but it’s only nuclear powered, rather than armed). Send it in(assuming that it still works) and see how it copes with a couple of tiny Ghadir submarines that’ll be waiting.
Here’s an excellent video entitled “Why Smart People Should Never Argue With Idiots.”
The philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer identified this trap two centuries
ago: there are two completely different types of conversation — dialectic
(truth-seeking) and eristic (winning at all costs). And if you don’t know
which one you’re in, you’ll waste years trying to convince people who were
never trying to understand you.
Schopenhauer divided humanity into what he called vulgar minds and contemplative minds. So the video might be better titled, “Why Contemplative Minds Should Never Argue With Vulgar Minds.”
Trigger warning, germ theory gets a favorable mention here, although its validity is not central to the arguments made. It comes up in the context of Ignaz Semmelweis, who discovered that handwashing could save thousands of lives in hospitals but ended up dying in a mental asylum because he argued with idiots.
There is a reason Semmelweiss was killed
Getting rid of unwanted wives in childbirth was quite common back then. It was a perfect murder, since it was medical and no wrongdoing could be proven.
Semmelweiss ended that practice, and the powerfuls, who were now stuck with wives they could get rid of easily in the past but no longer so because of him, maid sure he paid for this crime.
Yes, it is so: That is why there is a lot of zombie structures now that people still believe have any value – because these dead structures (like e. g. real estate that somebody owns but no one can afford) represent status.
Im pretty sure that Claire Grogan would have been asking herself how she could get away, run away, far away, from Arthur Schopenhauer after about 5 minutes in a room with him. I wouldn’t hesitate to go toe to toe with Art in a thoroughly disagreeable disagree ability contest. Or maybe we’d get on like a house on fire and they’d have to refund everyone the.price of admission.
That video came up on my feed about a month ago and I listened to it with the volume turned up while vacuuming the classroom carpets at school. Yes, you heard that correctly, we have carpeted classrooms, including the science room. I thought about posting it but decided it might be seen as disagreeably egotistical, even by my standards, if not Schopehauer’s.
Apparently misrepresented that cleaning job recently in some unrelated thread, it was not meant in any derogatory way.
I do apologize for it.
PS added some funk music on previous page
You did? I don’t recall that. Was that when you talked about your work with rats? Sorry to hear you work graveyard but glad it means we get to hang out in real time (but not really because of the moderation but I appreciate Gail not having refused to publish a comment in awhile). I’m not sure my work can be denigrated. On corn days I scrape dozens of stepped-on kernels of GMO corn, like so many pieces of hard chewing gum, from the peeling, painted concrete floor of the daylight basement cafeteria floor that floods with every heavy rain. On peas days it’s peas I’m scraping before sweeping. But it’s all good I get paid by the hour.
Is Trump declaring victory and getting ready to leave ?
Sorry , the link .
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/trumpts_1.jpg?itok=uP4EDFSs
The Iranians will have a say in that because they are fighting an asymmetric war and currently have the upper hand. They are also getting help from both Russia and China. They now want the US out of the ME and are willing to collapse the global economy as payback.
? Days/weeks ago discussed as likely prediction, now confirmed the major artery for Russian supplies to Iran has been destroyed, jut few posts here bellow yours. There could be/are likely other routes but this one was the key.
It’s a fake war. They’re just using it to transition us to low carbon lifestyles.
He already did last week
THE ENERGY LOCKDOWN HAS ALREADY STARTED. HERE IS WHAT EVERY COUNTRY IS DOING RIGHT NOW.
United States — Gas up 80 cents/gallon. $300M extra per day. United Airlines cutting 5% of flights. CEO planning for $175 oil.
United Kingdom — Government telling people “avoid non-essential travel.” Emergency energy plans not updated since 1973. Last time: rationing + 3-day work week.
Japan — Fuel rationing already implemented. Energy vouchers distributed. Emergency oil reserve release ordered.
South Korea — Fuel rationing active. Energy subsidies deployed to slow price shock.
Bangladesh — Fuel rationing. Rolling power cuts returning.
Philippines — Energy rationing measures. Fuel subsidy emergency expanded.
Sri Lanka — Petrol queues stretching for miles. Flashback to 2022 economic collapse.
Australia — Government insisting rationing “won’t happen.” Also telling people to cut “frivolous journeys.” Both things at once.
Germany — Facing gas prices potentially going from €29 to €500. Banks warning of industrial shutdowns.
Greece — Fuel costs threatening shipping and tourism economy.
India — 80% of oil imports go through Hormuz. Emergency reserves activated.
Pakistan — Already in fiscal crisis. Oil shock adding to near-collapse conditions.
This is not future speculation.
This is happening RIGHT NOW.
And your government is calling it an “energy measure.”
Not a lockdown.
Never a lockdown.
https://x.com/BinsaeedRashid/status/2035241084196937882
Do you believe attacking tankers is something unfamiliar to Trump or to insurance companies? Why did insurance companies cancel their policies this time?
Here, from 2019:
July 2019
Middle Eastern Oil: Is Trump making the situation worse?
Dr. Anas Alhajji / Contributing Editor
The recent attacks on two tankers (Table 1) carrying naphtha and methanol in the Gulf of Oman were well-planned by a powerful group that has access to intelligence, information, military hardware, and experts. A group that wants to derail any possible negotiations between Iran and the U.S., direct or indirect. It succeeded, for now.
President Trump visited Japan at the end of last May. He asked Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to visit Tehran, to mediate between the Trump administration and the Iranian regime, on the hope of having a direct dialogue between the two countries.
While Abe was in Tehran, the attacks on the two tankers took place, one carrying naphtha to Japan, and the other one, carrying methanol, is owned by a Japanese company. The timing and the targets cannot be a coincidence.
Someone wants to derail Abe’s effort. Someone who wants to make sure that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will not happen. While there is a list of possible suspects, it is clear that IRG (Iranian Revolutionary Guard) tops the list. They will do whatever is necessary to derail such negotiations. The Iranian government is under massive political and economic pressure to negotiate, but the IRG and their supreme leader are not.
While Japan is the common element in the attacks mentioned above, the common element in the previous attacks on two tankers in Fujairah in the UAE, and the pumping stations of the East-West pipeline in the middle of the desert in Saudi Arabia, is that all of them circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. The most powerful card Iran has in its war chest is the significance of the Strait to the world, where about 19 MMbopd pass through. Pipelines in the UAE and Saudi Arabia that circumvent the Strait reduce Iran’s bargaining power.
Main Impact
Saudi Arabia, and to some extent the UAE, established themselves as reliable and dependable suppliers of energy. Any attacks or disruptions, caused by anyone in the region, harm this strategic objective. Long-term losses from being viewed as unreliable suppliers are massive, as politicians and policymakers in oil-consuming countries reduce dependence on oil imports from the region and, in some cases, reduce dependence on oil altogether. This might explain why countries in the region would like to maintain pressure on Iran, but without escalation.
Quote
Anas Alhajji
@anasalhajji
·
7h
🔴President Trump talking about Hormuz Strait:
“We don’t even need to be there, in that the U.S. has just become the largest producer of energy anywhe
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2035140289099440213/photo/1
Acts of war have always been excluded from insurance policies. Attacking tankers is an act or war. It is very easy to stop reinsurance.
There is a very thin market for reinsurance, when it comes to excessive marine claims. The market cannot possibly handle a large number of tankers being blown up, or any other kind of act of war. Insurance companies are quite small, compared to the risks they are insuring. The system cannot insure against acts of war.
I should also note, the system cannot insure against rising interest rates, or against failing banks (many, not just an occasional one), or against failing pension plans. The system will likely have a smaller number of goods and services to deliver in the future, if there is less oil and natural gas available in the future. All the system can do is allocate what is available, not make more.
Regarding the US becoming the largest producer of energy, that is sort of helpful. But the US cannot make very many goods and services without supply lines that extend around the world. These supply lines are what is at risk.
IMTM> thanks for that list.
—
“United Airlines cutting 5% of flights. CEO planning for $175 oil.”
Btw. key CEOs not versed in [ Triangle of Doom ] energy min-max price compression? Or actually they have to plan (and obey laws) for all sorts of price level projections and eventualities out there, this one being one of them..
Somehow, the system will be forced to use less.
SADDAM INVADED IRAN WITH 70,000 MEN AND 3,000 TANKS. IT BECAME THE LONGEST WAR OF THE 20TH CENTURY. TRUMP AND NETANYAHU ARE ABOUT TO MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE. 🚨🚨🚨
In 1980, Iraq had the most modern military in the Middle East. They invaded Iran’s flat plains expecting a 2-week victory.
It last 8 YEARS. Over 1 MILLION people died.
Let that sink in.
💀 Iraq sent 70,000 troops into Khuzestan — Iran trapped them in urban warfare and DESTROYED their armored divisions
💀 34 days to take ONE city (Khorramshahr) — at a cost that broke Iraq’s entire army morale
💀 May 1982 — Iran surrounded and captured 19,000 Iraqi soldiers in a SINGLE operation
💀 20,000-30,000 Iraqis killed on the southern front ALONE by 1982
💀 The flat plains turned into “World War I in the desert” — trenches, chemical weapons, total hell
⚠️ The US lost 4,431 soldiers in 8 YEARS of Iraq. Iran lost that many in single BATTLES — and kept fighting for 8 more years. This is a nation that DOES NOT QUIT.
⚠️ A US carrier strike group with 5,000 marines is heading to the region right now. For context — the Iraq invasion required 177,000 troops. 5,000 marines vs a country of 90 MILLION.
They’re showing you bunker buster strikes and “mission accomplished” footage.
They’re NOT showing you that Iran has spent 45 years turning its mountains into FORTRESSES. Their concrete is 200-400 MPa — the US standard is 100-150 MPa. The GBU-57 bunker busters can’t even penetrate it.
Here’s what nobody is asking:
If bombing works, why is the US now sending ground troops? → Because bombing ISN’T working → But ground troops face the Zagros Mountains — the same mountain range that stopped EVERY invader in 2,500 years → So what’s the actual plan?
There IS no plan. There’s only escalation.
Every empire that tried to occupy Iran learned the same lesson: you can invade the plains, but you CANNOT hold the mountains. The Zagros range is a natural fortress. Iran doesn’t need to win battles — it just needs to NOT LOSE. And that’s what it’s been doing for 3,000 years.
This won’t be Iraq 2003. This won’t be Afghanistan. This will be the war that BREAKS the myth of American military dominance — because you can’t bomb what you can’t reach, and you can’t occupy what you can’t hold.
More FAFO .
Obviously the US can expend 70,000 men. If this destroys the INSTC and Gulf’s oil production it will be worthy. They are starting to round up Ukraine’s draft dodgers in the West, to make sure Russia can not intervene. China seems to be content to lose access to Gulf resources.
You cannot hold the mountains?
From Wikipedia;
The Mongol conquest of Persia and Mesopotamia comprised three Mongol campaigns against Islamic states in the Middle East and Central Asia between 1219 and 1258. These campaigns led to the termination of the Khwarazmian Empire, the Nizari Ismaili state, and the Abbasid Caliphate of Baghdad, and the establishment of the Mongol Ilkhanate government in their place in Persia.
Genghis Khan had unified the Mongolic peoples and conquered the Western Xia state in the late 12th and early 13th centuries. After a series of diplomatic provocations on the part of Muhammad II, the ruler of the neighbouring Khwarazmian Empire, the Mongols launched an invasion in 1219. The invaders laid waste to the Transoxianan cities of Bukhara, Samarkand, and Gurganj in turn, before obliterating the region of Khorasan, slaughtering the inhabitants of Herat, Nishapur, and Merv, three of the largest cities in the world. Muhammad died destitute on an island in the Caspian Sea. His son and successor, Jalal al-Din, tried to resist the Mongols, but was defeated and forced into exile. Genghis returned to his campaign against the Jin dynasty in 1223, only retaining governance of the northern Khwarazmian regions.
The war had been one of the bloodiest in human history, with total casualties estimated to be between two and fifteen million people. The next three decades saw conflicts of lesser scale but equal destruction in the region. Soon after his accession to the khaganate in 1227, Ögedei Khan sent an army under Chormaqan Noyan to end Jalal al-Din’s renewed resistance and subjugate several minor polities in Persia. This was carried out gradually: Jalal al-Din was killed in 1231, with Isfahan and Maragheh being besieged and captured the same year; Erbil was captured in 1234; and Georgia was gradually subjugated and vassalised before Chormaqan’s death in 1241. Several other Persian towns and cities, such as Hamadan, Ray, and Ardabil, were also captured by the Mongols.
The final stage began in 1254. On the orders of his brother, Möngke Khan, Hulagu systematically captured the fortresses of the Nizari Ismaili state in northern Persia, seizing their capital of Alamut in 1256. In 1258, Hulagu marched on the Abbasid Caliphate of Baghdad; capturing the city, he ended the 500-year-old Abbasid dynasty by killing the caliph Al-Musta’sim, marking the end of the Islamic Golden Age. Persia would later become the heartland of the Mongol Ilkhanate.
That [ GBU-57 ] was developed specifically for digging countries such as North Korea and Iran in mind, so I’m not sure your concrete spec reference is helpful..
This will be decided in the coming weeks and months, so far my estimate they will first run out of the biggest most sophisticated hardware which needs the largest domes underground seems valid, that was annihilated already.
As they are now wheeling out shipping container sized rocket launchers ( from ~city garages ) only, plus obviously drones. That’s apparent from the hastily edited / masked videos of the launches used in msm..
Yes, they might have 10-50.000x copies of drones for 2years of effort. But look at the impact (cluster warhead version): half burned small bungalow or parked car at max, it can’t sink a large vessel.. If the US ups production of naval C-RAM and similar hardware against drones, they could easily guard – convoy Hormuz say in one year from now..
if they put boots on the ground they will be slaughtered.—anyone invading iran always is..
donnie will thus lose face…
he will then resort to his last option—
nukes—unless theres some way of stopping him actually doing that….
That will serve his Israeli masters well.
I covered this yesterday when I pointed out that the Mongols conquered Iran.
But they were by no means the only successful invaders of the place.
Here’s a fuller list:
The Macedonians/Greeks (c. 334–330 BC): Alexander the Great invaded and conquered the Achaemenid Empire. Following his death, the Seleucid Empire—a Greek-ruled state—controlled Iran for over two centuries.
The Arabs (7th Century AD): Arab armies, following the rise of Islam, defeated the Sasanian Empire. The conquest brought a massive religious shift, as Iran converted to Islam.
This is why Iran is mainly Muslim today. And why the Zoroastrians emigrated to India.
The Mongols (13th Century): The Mongol Empire, led by figures like Genghis Khan and later Hulegu Khan, launched a massive, destructive invasion of Persia (1219–1258), resulting in the establishment of the Ilkhanate.
The Turks (Various Periods): Numerous Turkic dynasties conquered or controlled parts of Iran over centuries, including the Seljuks, Timurids, Qara Qoyunlu, and Aq Qoyunlu.
The Afghans (1722): The Safavid Empire was brought to an end by an Afghan invasion that took control of the capital, Isfahan.
The Allies (1941): During World War II, Iran was invaded and occupied by Soviet and British forces to secure supply routes.
“The Allies (1941): During World War II, Iran was invaded and occupied by Soviet and British forces to secure supply routes.”
The British must have invaded and occupied from the inside, as we were already there.
We did send a load more admittedly, as we understood full well where “our wealth” was located.
The last time Iran invaded anyone, the two corporate entities now attacking them, didn’t even exist.
It is hard to believe that US/Israel has any chance of winning this war. At best, there will be two losing sides.
This is a quote from Art Berman . Is it true or just misleading?
Where do you get such ideas? The US has 26 billion barrels of proved reserves whose production could be accelerated with government incentives. The USGS estimates another 100 billion barrels of technically recoverable, undiscovered resources.
The logic in my post was to apply the levers of US power to the western hemisphere, not just the U.S.
All the best,
Art
I think that the only lever of western power that the US has to get more oil and gas out is by starting a war to raise oil and gas prices. This is my reasoning:
There are two things the US government can do. One of them is to print more debt. The US government is already “over its head” in debt. It can’t pay the interest on debt at the current interest rate. With higher oil prices, interest rates will rise higher, and debt repayment will be even more impossible.
The USGS produces a lot of nonsense numbers. It assumes that prices can stay higher than they really can. Even the amount of proved reserves can go down, if the economy cannot keep prices up high enough. Our problem for years has been low oil and gas prices.
Regarding the second thing the US government can do, the government cannot fix the problem of low prices, except perhaps by starting a war. In fact, such an increase in oil prices could be a major motivation for the current war. WIth high oil and natural gas prices, some or all of the reserves the USGS is hoping for might be available for extraction.
But keeping prices up through war and afterwards is likely to be a problem. Other countries will cut back consumption in response to high prices, causing prices to fall. But if it is true that prices will, in fact, stay up, the war could be quite helpful to the US oil and gas industry.
This may indirectly be a major motivation for the war. If we consider this a “lever of US power” and oil and gas prices actually do stay high, then Art might be right.
One of the problems I see is that yes starting a war will raise oil prices; this may help for initial investments to get the oil in hard to reach places. Once that initial investment is made maybe cost to produce will go down? But if oil is high the cost to get said oil will be high because you will have to pay Employee more money and spend more money on oil and materials.
Its very confusing because Art almost gets it and then he throws out some cornucopian idea out. There are so many Americans that think that the U.S is energy independent with so much energy that it never has to worry about energy. I think the government is afraid to tell its citizens the truth because it is very scary idea.
The world has know about these problems since at least the 1950s. But it hides the issues from people. You are probably right about, “I think the government is afraid to tell its citizens the truth because it is very scary idea.”
Sorry, that was an old video from 3 years ago. Whoops.
Strange though, I’m a gas station manager and you almost never see a place that nice run out of fuel. All the tanks are automated and communicated to a command center. They don’t ever let them even come close to running out.
Trump is saying that the U.S. has won the war and is probably going to wind down things next week. Whatever that it’s worth?!?
Fantastic, and he’ll swear in the next ruler of Iran a week after in the Oval Office…
“muh TwO mOrE ” weeks.
Thailand may use QR codes to purchase fuel to stop hoarding.
QR code may return if fuel hoarding continues: Deputy Minister
https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/QR-code-may-return-if-fuel-hoarding-continues-Deputy-Minister/108-334213
My impression is that this is Sri Lanka. Using QR codes is probably a reasonable way of allocating limited fuel.
Here’s the breakdown.
The government has introduced weekly fuel limits based on vehicle categories.
Vehicle Type Weekly Fuel Allowance
Motor Cars 15 Litres
Motorcycles 5 Litres
Three-Wheelers 15 Litres
Vans 40 Litres
Buses 60 Litres
Motor Lorries 200 Litres
Special Purpose Vehicles 40 Litres
Quadricycles 5 Litres
https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/Sri-Lanka-Fuel-QR-Code-System-Complete-Guide-to-Register-Download-and-Fuel-Quotas/108-335342
NEW: In a letter to employees, United CEO Scott Kirby says the airline is prepping for oil to hit $175/barrel & “doesn’t get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.”
https://x.com/kpottermn/status/2035130879387808130
I am doubtful about that.
In 2008, the oil spike was in July, and the price was very low by December. The high prices punctured a debt bubble in 2008, leading to many problems.
Prices did stay high in the 2010 to 2013 period, but they started to crash again in 2014. To stay high, the world economy has to be doing fairly well. I am not sure that that will be the case in later 2026 and 2027.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA0uc1OnYfw
I have no way to know if this is true. But it sure is an interesting story.
I look forward to the strike on Ghawar.
I looked at the video. Even though it is clearly AI, it sounds all too realistic. US allies in the Middle East are can now see how powerless the US is to truly protect them. If the US sends in troops (even with a few allies helping), I am afraid that the situation doesn’t change.
The US needs to show that it holds the world’s hegemony now, above all. This is the purpose of sending in more troops. But the US has never done well in ground battles in areas held by other people who are far more familiar with local terrain than they are.
The situation is truly worrisome.
Epstein’s Wingman Crashed the Global Economy (And Got Rewarded)
How does one man oversee the collapse of five different economies and still remain at the top of the global power structure? This is the story of Larry Summers—the former Treasury Secretary, Harvard President, and economic advisor who helped shape the modern world.
From the “Shock Therapy” that created Russian oligarchs to the deregulation that triggered the 2008 financial crisis, we trace a 40-year pattern of boom, bust, and bailouts. But the story doesn’t end with economics. We dive into the “Wingman” files, exploring Summers’ decades-long relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, his remarkably timed exits from scandal-ridden companies like Block Inc. and LendingClub, and his recent role at OpenAI.
Is it a coincidence, or is it a system designed to reward failure?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciFvA7Awha4
Well done expose of how the real money machine extracts it’s flesh and the corruption that makes it grind on..seeing the rinse and repeat today.
Disgusting and the sooner it falls the better… 🤑we are trapped by the money machine
CNBC International
Wall Street banks on an unpopular Iran war pushing Trump to de-escalate soon. A growing chorus of investors see Trump as likely to temper the conflict as approval numbers sink and November’s midterm elections near.
5:09 PM · Mar 20, 2026
And those in the tight circle click will walk away with billions and sleep well in silk sheets..
Public opinion amounts to niche, they allow it to blow off steam as an outlet…and to monitor how to defuse it..
Get real..
The video is interesting. Deregulation seems to help the rich and powerful and encourages the kind of speculation that leads to crashes. Then the powers that be consolidate the area that crashed, and eventually deregulate the sector, again leading to gains by a handful of insiders, before a crash. Larry Summers was very much involved with this kind of thing.
And do what ? The rich are just as vulnerable if this system goes down! Actually the rich will be more vulnerable 😂
BAU Tonight BABY…don’t worry about tomorrow Natty
The point is “the rich” are more vulnerable like only <5% out of 95% of such time-span, hence very good position to be in.. good times well spent.
*US MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIAL GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN: CBS
*OIL PRICES RISE AFTER REPORT US PREPARES GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2035061028359119055
FAFO .
HE US IS SENDING MARINES TO TAKE KHARG ISLAND. THERE’S ONE PROBLEM: IT’S A SUICIDE MISSION. 🚨🚨🚨
To reach Kharg Island, the Marines must first transit the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow chokepoint that Iran has turned into a KILLING FIELD. Then survive a 380-mile dash along Iran’s coast. Then land on an island Iran can simply BLOW UP before they arrive.
Let that sink in.
💀 Step 1: Transit the Strait of Hormuz — MINED with sea mines, swarming with suicide boat drones, under constant missile and aerial drone attack from the IRGC
💀 Step 2: Survive a 20-24 HOUR dash (380 nautical miles) along Iran’s coastline — exposed to anti-ship missiles, hypersonic ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, small boats, and suicide drones — aerial, surface, AND subsurface
💀 Step 3: Arrive at Kharg Island — only to find Iran has BLOWN UP its own refineries, leaving Marines stranded in a town of 8,000 hostile civilians in a cloud of POISONOUS smoke
💀 Step 4: Hold an island with NO strategic value anymore — surrounded on ALL sides by Iranian firepower
⚠️ This is from Malcolm Nance — a 36-year US Navy intelligence veteran who served in CURRENT combat zones. Not a Twitter analyst. A man who’s BEEN in these waters. And he’s saying this is IMPOSSIBLE.
⚠️ The British tried to control the Persian Gulf for 150 years with the most powerful navy on Earth. They eventually LEFT. The US is about to learn the same lesson — with fewer ships and a FAR more armed Iran.
They’re showing you carrier strike groups and amphibious ships heading to the Gulf like it’s a show of force.
They’re NOT showing you the MAP. The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest. Iran controls the ENTIRE northern coastline. Every ship that enters is in range of THOUSANDS of missiles, drones, and mines. It’s not a transit — it’s a gauntlet.
Here’s what nobody is asking:
If the US can’t safely transit the Strait of Hormuz → How do the Marines reach Kharg Island? → If they CAN’T reach it, what’s the point of sending them? → If there IS no point, why are they being deployed? → Because this isn’t strategy — it’s ESCALATION without a plan.
The contradiction is insane:
Trump says Iran surrendered → but the Pentagon is sending Marines on a mission that a 36-year Navy veteran calls impossible → you don’t send amphibious assault ships against a “surrendered” enemy → you send them when you’re preparing for a war you haven’t told the public about yet.
Iran doesn’t need to BEAT the US Navy. It just needs to make the Strait of Hormuz UNUSABLE. One mine hits one ship → insurance collapses → shipping stops → mission over. Iran has THOUSANDS of mines. The US has Marines on ships that were designed for beach landings, not mine warfare.
This isn’t D-Day. This is Gallipoli. And the people planning it either don’t know the geography or don’t CARE about the Marines they’re sending in.
https://x.com/sungleeiq/status/2035050322897277343
toldya—–
donnie, above all else cannot lose face….no matter how deep he gets in..
so if he is allowed to, he will use battlefield nukes….can’t say for certain on that because i dont know if there are checks and balances against doing that….
as i said in 2016, he has screwed up every venture he’s got involved in—this time its the global economy itself….
in any event, he will walk away from this mess asserting that he won…
His health seems very poor. I do not think he walks away.
I think Trump will get an Academy Award for his performance as the mad dictator.the plan was simply get the prices up and keep them up how would they do this by AI AI can do the impossible which is keep the prices permanently High. remember doge was created to replace all those government workers with artificial intelligence programs all these was planned,many years ago Henry Kissinger in his last book was writing about artificial intelligence that that was the way forward.. you have got to hand it to the elders they will never give up they will try anything moral or immoral.
Coming soon to Tehran, Karachi, Bombay (I do not use the names the locals gave to themselves), Dacca, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, etc
https://youtube.com/shorts/TkeBXzxaCIg?si=I-tBGI08HndQb2nq
The food will be bid by richer countries who will outcompete the poorer population.
A massive natural selection will take place this year. It is already too late to plant in some locales, and the fertilizer crisis won’t end soon.
The Irish famine ended Irish as a language. As a result, for example, Ireland’s greatest poet is William B. Yeats, with zero Irish genes, protestant, and Norman(when you learn Beowulf the people there are called the Geats – they are pronounced “Yates”, just like the poet). He just claimed he was Irish, but none of his descendants live in there anymore.
The Third World will be decisively crushed by the coming famine since the more advanced countries are not going to sacrifice themselves.
in ireland, there were no discussion of the famine till around the time of JFK. The survivors were either protestants or landowners. James Joyce, whose family lived in Dublin at the time of the famine, only mentions it once in Ulysses, when a half crazy passing character mentions it to Stephen Dedalus, whose family was poor but not that poor to deny him a proper education. Joyce also wrote The Dead, about a rather well to do Irish intellectual who ever really felt any hardship, feeling jealousy about his wife’s old flame who might (or might not) have died in the Famine.
It will be cruel, but it is either the advanced world dies or the less advanced world dies , and the direction favors the former.
The famine will not come for some time, however. Most people don’t think about the delay. I know that India has more than one rice harvest per year–two or even three, I believe. So the effects could start to be noticed in a few months.
I expect that it will be the poorest people affected in India. Also, the poor many poor people in Africa.
China makes a lot of urea using coal. In fact, quite a bit of that urea is exported. That may help the situation.
Already the planting season has started and thete is a significamt reductipn of fertilizer production .
On top of that Kuala Lampur might well be booming (relatively to the world).
Sorry , China has stopped the export of fertilizer . India asked for 3 million tonnes . They were told sorry . They are trying Russia but they’re also sorry . This is the first step it is called ” resource nationalization” ;https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2026/03/18/china-fertilizer-export-halt-urea-global-food-risk/
Thanks for the updates!
a real opportunity to bring India onside for the USA. They just need to deliver 3M tons to India, and print some dollars to pay their farmers.
you are wrong i think kulm….
to explain….
you are a kalahari bushman, or part of an untouched amazonian tribe.
or—-
a resident of New York, London or Riyadh…..
if there is to be collapse through all this—who would you put bets on to survive???
wasnt there something about the meek inheriting the earth???
Perhaps it is the meek who know how to farm using little fossil fuel inputs.
Yes this is how I have always interpreted this… it makes sense as the rich can’t do anything without their phone
I think a diet based on roots and fruits (plus the needed animal inputs) requires reasonable expenditures of manual labor. You can harvest a lot of roots and fruits by hand. The focus on grains as originally created by 1) they saved humanity from extinction in various parts of the world 2) potatoes were not available 3) military expeditions could be based solely on grains. Granted for potatoes soil preparation (hilling) is painful. Probably best to just bury them under old hay and whatever comes out of barns at the end of winter.
Harvesting grains by hand is a major pain comparatively. One hectare of land, fertilized naturally, will give you 25 Tons of potatoes but only 5 Tons of wheat. And potatoes are far better for human health. Obviously farther south you get a lot of options with a variety of sweet potatoes and yams and tapioca (my favorite root since I lived in Brazil).
Great points, agree.
Grains, potatoes, and using large part of the ~spoiled excess from them again for animals fodder is the chief factor for the human pop spike of recent centuries. Obviously, that in itself based on the pre-condition of harvesting the deposited rich top-soil over millennia to begin with..
The issue with potatoes is that in combo with meat (and not much added veggies) tends to fatten up people too much (and fast), so the health benefit is locked only for very moderate consumption of potatoes.
I’d say (winter season) two reasonable servings of potato puree and in another dish perhaps 2-3x largish potatoes only added to slow cooker w. poultry is a limit for adult person per week. But average homo-industrialis’ intake is usually 3-5-10x larger volume, go figure..
People simply don’t like to go to bed and wake-up even with mild hunger sensation.
you are quite correct.
hunger is a motivation for survival, we are meant to know real hunger but we have organised our lives so that we do not…
Well, frankly talking theories vs praxis, to be honest not long after that hungry potatoes post I just said to myself: wtf – the world is perhaps “ending shortly”, and opened that (one only per year) expensive alpine marmalade jar. Haha!
It’s all in there the sunshine, granite minerals, air, bumblebees, .. and perhaps just in decade or two the surrounding glaciers will be gone anyway (until next ice age).
In the book, Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States by James C. Scott, he argues that grains were needed for cities and large scale governments to form. This form of stored energy could support cities. It could be used for taxation of peoples.
Root vegetables were easier to grow and harvest. They tend to be used in tropical areas, even now. But they don’t lead to cities being formed.
I am guessing that they could (roots could support cities). After all we all buy potatoes year round. What they can not support is military campaigns because they need to be stored in a controlled environment (they also have a larger amount of water compared to grains so they weigh more). Note that before electricty those controlled environments did exist (root cellars). In northern climates, however, there is no real choice as other roots have too little calories.
farming only one aspect of it—
in fact, the basic requirement is knowing how to extract sufficient energy from the land that you live on…. in order to stay alive.
that requirement applies to all living things—of which humankind is just one, with no special priveleges above all the others…(other than what we have temporariliy expropriated of course)
Last time you said a tribal society is by definition more oppressive than a modern state- never mind that contact in these tribal societies is personal, labor division minimal, and power very often consensual as well as transparent, as opposed to an opaque bureaucratic machinery.
Anthropological studies and archeology point to a far more varied and nuanced balance of power in many non-urban societies, than Hobbe’s very limited view on those back then.
You might also call it: meritocracy – in a huntsmen/fishermen tribe, no inept son of a rich man can hide behind a bureaucratic job where nobody sees what he is doing.
Of course it is large agricultural (and later industrial, and later financial) societies that allowed sociopaths and psychopaths to develop and flourish.
My take vs Deutsche Bank’s
@JavierBlas
50-100% oil spike this month (not over several months)
Shock large enough to tip the world economy into collapse (not recession)
Central banks will be powerless (not a hawkish pivot)
THIS IS A WORLD-CHANGING EVENT
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2028870642720817389/photo/1
Yes , not a recession but a collapse .
Bold call !
Could happen, but I’d still vote for that mundane slow pace hell continues..
For example, the Ukro-Waffen now released series of onboard-FPV videos from single event how they attacked via drones at least two RU-helicopters, the first dodged the very close contact but second was hit in the ammo holding wing and while in flames managed to crash land, surviving two-manned crew on the ground near the site in hiding was then killed by the drones from close distance as well, in detail visible young faces and in pristine uniforms. It’s a bit similar narrative to how occasionally such full armored knights on expensive horses when pulled down got massacred in the mud by commoners from face-2-face distance. That KA-52 is mega bucks per copy, the attack drones were surely < $100k max.. (and likely included many generic CHN's sub-components)..
I still think the fast collapse scenario is too fast. Things go down, but not that fast. Perhaps my thinking is wishful thinking.
Why ? Is the LNG supply chain collapse in India not a case of a fast collapse ? Two days before the Ministry of Petroleum says all is well and then nothing is well . In the meanwhile the price of industrial diesel has been increased from 0.75 cents/lit to $ 1.15 cents/lit — up by 30% . Diesel prices have not been increased at the pump as there are state elections in 3 weeks . They will also get a hefty hike . Last October the Indian basket was $ 71-80 . Today $ 145–160 .
Food rationing, panic-buying, planes grounded and an economic hammer blow far worse than Covid: Economists explain nightmare scenario that could be just weeks away due to Iran war
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15664787/economic-hammer-blow-far-worse-Covid-Economists-explain-nightmare-scenario-just-weeks-away-Iran-war.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=social-twitter_mailonline
If UK allows Russia to swallow Ukraine, Russia will betray China and the entire situation changes.
It is UK’s recalcitrance which is dragging things.
Ukraine is thrown under the bus , Zelensky is disposed, and Russia gets Ukraine and cuts ties with China, and all of Asia except Japan and South Korea basically starves.
End of story.
UK? that small island with no resources or army? We are all afraid of it.
It is UK still insisting the war in Ukraine to cpntinue
Many of such countries out there..
For example the supposedly leftist govs in Spain, they stand actively for Palestine-Lebanon and Ukraine at the same time, even actively arm and finance the latter, which gen. Franco himself would call as outlier extreme right. Completely coherent position don’t you know.
Another prediction materializing..
Israel attacked the key port for both directional RU-Iran shipments.
—
First in war: IDF attacks Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea
The attack was carried out in the port city of Bandar Anzali on the western Caspian Sea, which is used for maritime shipments between Iran and Russia, as well as arms smuggling between the countries
i24NEWS March 19, 2026 at 09:29 AM
A source familiar with the details reported Wednesday evening to i24NEWS that Israel struck vessels of the Iranian navy in the Caspian Sea for the first time since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion.
The attack was carried out at Bandar Anzali port in Gilan Province, northern Iran. In addition to serving as the base of operations for the Iranian Navy in the western sector of the Caspian Sea, the port city of Bandar Anzali is also used by Russia and Iran for maritime shipments, as well as for weapons smuggling since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
weapons smuggling? how? are you talking about transactions between two nations paid for in local currencies? is port infrastructure as difficult to replace as oil infrastructure?
The context is that this particular route has been the favorite (largest throughput?) for shipping Iranian drones to RU since 2022 and in other direction were transported the other armaments from RU towards Iran.
These were Iranian cargo ships so Israel did not directly attacked RU so far.
Other routes such as other smaller ports, rail, lower degree roads are likely also used but that’s fraction of the capacity.
The airline bridge to RU is likely on pause at best now as well.
Btw. seems it has been validated in RU media as well.
so not smuggling. Why would you characterize it as smuggling?
I can not find it on tass or ria.maybe a telegram channel?
? I did not put a word about smuggling..
All under that line is a direct copy paste from that Israeli news agency website..
The ~corroboration was mentioned by some elderly analyst on ~diy YT war / politics channel, I can’t recall the address or name, something like ~Feydorov or Fedorov. It jumped on me automatically on YT while looking for general news updates on the front, and it was like 2nd / 3rd topic in that segment.
Perhaps this affair was censored, delayed or throttled down in RU msm, if you have the resources you could explore it more..
It’s there just s: “bandar anzali tass”
We are not going to wait very long for panic and chaos.
“Oil-on-water buffer is now gone.
The next buffer is the excess onshore crude oil inventories excluding China. China is going to hoard, so the excess there is irrelevant.
This will last 3-4 days at most.
And then it’s the SPR buffer, but there’s a flow mismatch.
I think it’s funny to read some of the oil commentary saying that oil prices aren’t that “high” today because it’s not going to be that “bad.”
No man.
That’s because there was a cushion at the beginning of the conflict. We are now eating through that.
Here’s what I wrote on March 4 in our report titled, “Why Aren’t Oil Prices At $100?”
How much storage do we have before the market starts to panic?
Well, here’s the math:
The Middle East exports ~19 million b/d of crude + condensate + products through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi’s East-West pipeline has a capacity of ~5 million b/d, but a chunk of that was already in-use. UAE also has the ability to bypass with the Abu Dhabi pipeline (Habshan-Fujairah) with a capacity of ~1.8 million b/d.
Excluding Iranian flows (~2 million b/d), that leaves us with ~10 to ~12 million b/d at risk.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2033746916282921433
We’ve already had 6 days of disruptions. This amounts to ~60 to ~72 million bbls of crude + condensate + product. Production shut-in so far has been restricted to producers with no real storage capacity (Iraq).
Goldman estimates that there are ~312 million bbls of capacity available. So we are still 2 weeks away from needing to shut down in more production.
After storage capacity hits max capacity and if tanker flows remain restricted, that’s when we will see panic. Meanwhile, the global oil market is working through the excess crude on water and the surplus in storage that we have in 2025.
By our estimate, excess crude on water and excess onshore storage will be gone in 2-3 weeks. This is roughly the same timeline as the production shut-in scenario.
In other words, if we don’t see tanker activity pick up after 2 weeks, prepare for the worst-case scenario. For now, the oil market is absorbing the shock via the excess in storage. It won’t have much left after.
This is primarily the reason why we haven’t seen oil shoot past triple digits just yet.
Just in from HFI research .
Maximum SPR flow of ~2.5 million b/d or 75 million bbls in April.
Production outage is ~12 million b/d or 360 million bbls.
Onshore crude inventories will decline by ~290 million bbls in April.
In other words, the flow from the SPR;s will do little to offset the decline in world oil supply.
And this discussion doesn’t consider natural gas shortages.
Happy birthday Gail
Thanks! I am 79 today, but I am still doing fine. It does make me stop and think whether I can continue doing what I have been doing indefinitely, however.
my rule—-
when your mind and body start receiving messages that they no longer have any useful function—they will begin to shut down.
i have 3 lectures booked for april—–there’s nothing like having to get on your feet for a couple of hours, and just deliver.
so keep doing what youre doing…
secret of eternal youth.
Probably true. Few people believe my age when I tell them. They think I am younger.
lol—me too.
i call it rocket fuel
Happy birthday Gail. New moon this evening & spring equinox today. The heavens celebrate you!🤗
Thanks! It is beautiful weather here, also.
Hundred of these days! (as we say in Italy)
Gratulerer med dagen, Gail!
Thanks very much. I especially liked the older ladies at the beginning singing the Norwegian birthday song. It was all cute, though.
Happy B Day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztoSUhbNntQ
The Beatles …One of my favorites..party harty
Very nice, also, especially for those of us who remember the Beatles from the 1964 era well.
A belated birthday to a very special woman who is doing what, if I were religious, would deem to be doing the Lord’s work.
Thank you.
You are welcome!
Here are 5 crude oil 🛢 benchmarks prices
Brent
WTI
Murban
Oman
Dubai
https://x.com/AzizSapphire/status/2035053930674028815/photo/1
Wow! 162.5 for Oman, Asia’s sour crude benchmark.
Brent today traded at $ 113.50 .
Murban ADNOC oil up 16.50% today to $144.50/barrel