As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
It never rains ,it pours .
” The global food system just got hit again
Russia has halted ammonium nitrate exports for 1 month — a major shock because it controls up to 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade.
Why this matters 👇
🧪 Ammonium nitrate is a core nitrogen fertilizer
🌍 Synthetic fertilizers support ~50% of global food production
🚢 The market was already tight after Hormuz disruptions hit 24% of ammonia trade
📉 Now one of the world’s biggest suppliers is stepping back at peak planting season
This is how food inflation starts:
Less fertilizer → lower application rates → weaker yields → tighter grain supplies → higher food prices.
The biggest risk is developing markets entering planting windows with limited access and soaring input costs.
If these shortages extend beyond a month, the world moves closer to:
⚠️ regional crop failures
⚠️ food inflation spikes
⚠️ import stress in Asia & Africa
⚠️ elevated famine risk in vulnerable nations
This is no longer just an energy war.
It’s becoming a global food production shock.
https://x.com/gaurav_kochar/status/2040110846689583611/photo/1
Collateral damage . How crude oil is changing the cooking oil market . It’s a web of complexity .
” India’s edible oil imports are quietly rolling over — and the reason is not what most people think.
The Iran war isn’t just pushing crude higher.
It’s creating commercial LPG shortages across India, and that is now hitting the country’s restaurants, caterers, dhabas, bakeries, and street-food vendors.
That matters because ~40% of India’s vegetable oil demand flows through HORECA.
Less LPG = fewer hours open, smaller menus, less frying, fewer events.
That means less palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil being used every single day.
The transmission is simple:
War → fuel shortage → food-service slowdown → edible oil demand destruction → lower imports
India’s monthly edible oil demand could fall by 250,000–300,000 tons if the squeeze persists.
Imports already appear to be slipping:
Feb: 1.32 MMT
Mar: ~1.20 MMT
That is a major warning sign for Indonesia and Malaysia, which depend heavily on Indian palm oil demand.
The irony:
while retail oil prices are rising, bulk demand is weakening.
This is what second-order war shocks look like.
The first-order effect is energy inflation.
The second-order effect is restaurants using less cooking oil because they can’t get gas.
A prolonged Iran conflict could hit:
Palm oil exporters 🇮🇩🇲🇾
India’s food-service sector 🍛
Urban food inflation 📈
Event catering & weddings 🎉
Street food economics 🌮
This is a rare case where an energy crisis becomes temporary food demand destruction instead of immediate food scarcity
They may confirm that the Iran war is now reshaping how India consumes food itself. “
Some considerations. I am guessing 50%+ of fertilizer goes to corn. So there will be specifically a lot less corn this year. This means much less chicken, pork and eggs. Considering purchasing power one can prepare himself to export eggs where they are produced to the Middle East.
Here’s the final scene from the “iconic” Three Days of the Condor, where Robert Redford gets a lecture in why the US may have to invade the Middle East.
Three Days of the Condor is a masterpiece in part because it creates a sense of paranoia. Viewers don’t know who to trust, and this creates a suspended feeling of tension throughout the film.
This sense of paranoia is only heightened when we learn the US government is behind the killings of seven CIA researchers, all for the greater good of “the company” and the United States.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2xgxur
Turner: Do we have plans to invade the Middle East?
Higgins: Are you crazy?
Turner: Am I?
Higgins: Look, Turner…
Turner: Do we have plans?
Higgins: No, absolutely not. We have games. That’s all. We play games. ‘What if?’ ‘How many men?’ ‘What would it take?’ ‘Is there a cheaper way to destabilize a regime?’ That’s what we’re paid to do.
Turner: Supposing I hadn’t stumbled onto a plan; say, nobody had?
Higgins: Different ballgame… the fact is, there was nothing wrong with the plan. No, the plan was alright; the plan would’ve worked!
Higgins: It’s simple economics. Today it’s oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food. Plutonium. Maybe even sooner. Now, what do you think the people are gonna want us to do then?
Turner: Ask them?
Higgins: Not now – then! Ask ’em when they’re running out. Ask ’em when there’s no heat in their homes and they’re cold. Ask ’em when their engines stop. Ask ’em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won’t want us to ask ’em. They’ll just want us to get it for ’em!
Is this for real:
https://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2026/04/03/power-company-energy-legal-fight-dei-woke-georgia/
?
I live in Georgia. I hadn’t heard of this earlier.
Georgia is the home to a lot of Data Centers, needed to Power AI. The extra power plants existing and planned are to power the data centers. I can’t believe that all of the AI planned will really come to be.
Hopefully, if the AI is not going to “make it,” we can figure this out soon.
Breaking Points covered this the other day. Data centers are now facing delays or are getting cancelled due to shortage of transformers and other related parts.
Thanks! I would expect that the data centers planned here are running into the same problems.
I have just dreamed up a brand new conspiracy theory: Hungarian Prime Minister Orban is British author David Icke!
Similar looks, similar gestures, and you never see the two of them at the same place and time!
https://www.rt.com/news/637100-orban-eu-ditch-russia-sanctions/
I have a bold hypothesis. I think a lot of the “brain fog” that has been
associated with covid may be caused by an increase in marijuana use.
Marijuana use has gone up in the last ten years while alcohol sales have
been going down.
The search engines readily admit that long term consumption of the
plant causes “brain fog”.
I haven’t read the article in full but I think any move away from globalization is very bad for renewables in the U.S. since it’s apparent the know-how and raw materials to make wind turbines and solar panels does not exist in the U.S.
I know that solar panels tend to be imported from Southeast Asia.
With respect to wind turbines, a 2025 article says
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/21/us-opens-national-security-probe-into-imported-wind-turbines-components.html
Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie said approximately two-thirds of the value of a typical U.S. wind turbine is imported.
U.S. imports of 2023 wind-related imported equipment were valued at $1.7 billion, the lowest volumes since 2013, the firm added, with Europe being the biggest exporter (41%), followed by Mexico (34%), and India (around 15%), the firm added, saying Chinese imports have diminished due to increased trade tensions.
I would agree. We tend not to make start-to-finish solar panels or wind turbines. If Europe is running into problems, we probably can’t import as much from them as in the past.
Both wind turbines and solar panels are high tech goods. We often are missing the specialized materials needed to make high tech goods–China needs to export the materials, but China limits or forbids completely exports of these materials.
South Florida gas stations are reporting gas shortages as prices continue to increase due to Iran war
“For the first time since the war against Iran began, some South Florida gas station managers are reporting temporary shortages of gasoline. CBS News Miami found several stations with no gasoline Thursday morning, while one station had only premium fuel for sale.
https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/south-florida-iran-war-gas-shortages/#
same thing is happening here in Australia we are running out of oil at most of our gas stations we are being given a choice electric cars electric scooters or electric bikes or just the old-fashioned bicycle,this is the great reset in action the elders a pushing forward the agenda of electric everything will change with the high price of oil .Will it succeed. we better hope so because the alternative is to awful to contemplate. People think AI will find shitloads of barrels of oil but the AI in my view is simply there to keep the population calm during the transition they need the AI to feed them feel good answers a security blankets during these turbulent times.Norm has made a good choice purchasing an electric car so he’s simply taking the correct Direction because we are being given a direction by the elders Electrics.
and it is brilliant isn’t it this collapse is something I can live with even my family and now are now looking at electric cars and realizing that oil is finite I tried for 30 years to tell them about the finite oil and it never worked but what’s happening now it’s like a baseball bat to the Head. It just shows you how controlled everyone is by mass media .so AI seems to be our savior if the rest of the world can be taught a lesson then great changes can come .
Of course, electricity may not last any better than oil. Many places got oil earlier than electricity. I know that my parents lived in families that had oil before electricity.
Electricity takes a whole network of wires and a system to keep everything in sync. Electricity goes down practically every time there is a major storm. I wouldn’t count on electricity lasting very long, if oil is not available. Oil is needed for repair people to fix transmission lines, for example.
‘without fossil fuels’ electricity wont work but lets say some fossil fuels can be provided and these are directed to essential services for a few more decades such as the grid ,food production and ai replaces the vast majority of workers that commute to work in a ‘ice’ vehicle people work from home that are able too air travel is greatly reduced and people adopt different lifestyles to adaapt , all this will be possible with the world cooperating with each other producing fossil fuels if oil prices stay high permanently lets say 200 dollars a barrel. You youself said a different system will spring from the iran america war that will lead to a different world. Iran sells the right for ships to cross the strait of hormuz to deliver oil the evil countries will probably be charged higher so oil prices will stay high for a long time, Iran will never forgive the evil countries.Who are the evil countries anyone who supported Usrael..
Adon
“Time makes more converts, than reason” -thomas paine
Adonis, in terms of EVs ” choose wisely ” and skip that seemingly cheaper Norm’s option of NMC batteries, which are based on Cobalt ( toxic mining ), and the pack itself is flammable POS.
Given you mentioned to be Australia based, so one can guess there should be much wider offering of CHN products instead and most of their EV production is now based on the safer and bit more enviro friendly LFP / LiFePO(4) batteries.. Or get it from Koreans, whomever to your preference.. just avoid that Nissan-Renault cobalt bros-duo..
South Florida is a long ways from Texas, where quite a bit of our oil comes from. That may be an issue.
I should probably add that in times of hurricane damage to oil supply, it was the places farthest from Texas that seemed to have the most problems.
Atlanta is quite far from Texas. We have run into difficulties getting gasoline after hurricane damage to Texas/Louisiana.
U.S. within ‘weeks’ of oil shortages if war in Iran continues: Eric Nuttall
It’s going to be getting worse by the day’
The United States is within “weeks” of oil shortages if the war in Iran continues, warns Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager with Ninepoint Partners. The war between the U.S., Israel and Iran entered its second month this week while the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping channels, remains closed.
“This very clearly is the worst energy crisis of our lifetimes,” Nuttall said in a recent interview with the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn. “Nobody sober-minded ever thought that the Strait, given just how profoundly important it is to global energy flows … would be closed. But here we are.”
He warned that within the next month, the world is approaching a scenario where it will need to lose 10 million barrels per day of demand via high oil prices.
“This is essentially like COVID inverted,” Nuttall said. “Inevitably, you will need demand destruction because we’re eventually reaching a point where irrespective of price, you will not be able to fly. You will not be able to fill up your fishing boat.”
Nuttall said that the gravity of the situation is “too big” for any public policy to make up for.
https://archive.ph/20260401201527/https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/us-weeks-oil-shortages-war-iran-continues#selection-3399.0-3427.97
“He warned that within the next month, the world is approaching a scenario where it will need to lose 10 million barrels per day of demand via high oil prices.”
this is backwards, the immediate problem is supply disruption.
almost all of the Hormuz oil went to Asia, so they will be dipping into reserves for the short term, possibly a month or two depending on country, until the total depletion of reserves.
US produces 13 mbpd and Canada produces 6 mbpd and can only refine 2 mbpd so they MUST export about 4 mbpd to the USA.
this could change years from now, but not anytime soon.
Canada and the USA are in good shape even with this 10 mbpd “worldwide” supply disruption.
the 10 mbpd shortfall will not be felt equally throughout the world.
Thanks for your viewpoints Gail::
I always relish reading them when they come out. I tend to agree with your assessment that losing the Iran war might be the best outcome for the world.
We are facing a predicament for which most of us are not prepared. Hopefully, the consequences that you and your commentators have laid out will jolt us sufficiently to shift our awareness/consciousness to begin the journey to living within the planetary boundaries before we are forced to by the limits placed upon us by the physics that rules this solar system. Being forced to live with fewer hydro carbons, without the illusion of wind and solar being a replacement to business as usual with diminishing coal, oil and natural gass might help us mitigate the effects of a forced crash when EROI shuts off the spigots. The only energy source that I see as a possible replacement is through magnetics which might become feasible for generating low cost electricity at some point. I know people are working on it, but I don’t know how close we are to realizing a useful product.
Seems like the ship has sailed. Sobering article: https://substack.com/@predicament/p-192927632
Could you, please, tell us more? Perhaps with some basic, back-of-the-envelope calculations for invested energy in/low cost electricity out?
Obviously every electric motor runs via “magnetics”. But something has to move those magnets. I suspect the poster you replied to is not a physics PhD.
The Iran war is over. Trump decides it’s better to give in to the Iranians!!!
A new version of AI.
File this under, you can’t make this sh*t up even if you tried!
“Rubio accuses China of ‘bullying’ for holding up Panama-flagged ships
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused China of “bullying” by detaining or holding up dozens of Panama-flagged ships”
https://abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/rubio-accuses-china-bullying-holding-panama-flagged-ships-131669676
China and America fighting over Panama Canal passage.
I thought we took it over / China sold its rights / we pushed them out? Whatever happened there?
If I remember correctly, the US pressured the Panama leader(Munilo) and he reneged on contracts(everything China had built). China promptly cut him out(no more communication) and instead brought the bosses of the two biggest users of the canal in for a meeting.
The Panama leader has, despite multiple attempts, found that China, as Trump later found with Iran, are not picking up
https://youtu.be/77R1Wp6Y_5Y?si=ca9PvDdRecli3KoZ
One other thing about China and the talk of the money flight to Hong Kong. Remember when everyone was talking about the purge of the Chinese military high ups, well guess what’s started happening in finance and academia(last couple of weeks), including in Hong Kong.
Probably just coincidental timing, or maybe not.
This and other things make me think there will be no Xi-Trump meeting (or maybe just a pro-forma one) and that no rare earth goodies are ever going to be provided. And honestly I do not see any way for diplomacy to work over the next few years. China better starts building its proxies in Cuba and Venezuela, and do it fast. They have the money.
According to Nima, he tells Larry Johnson and Wilkerson that Iran just downed an F-15 fighter jet and a Blackhawk helicopter.
This is currently Live
Are you sure ( Live status) because L. Johnson (Sonar21) was just live few minutes ago on the Duranist YTch..
https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/streams
Predicting that during this very weekend+ ending next Mon, deployment of the US troops within Gulf ( Iran’s territory ) would eventually happen.
It started at 11AM unless this was pre-recorded then uploaded. I don’t know and can’t say.
Larry Johnson just made a comment that it’s almost 7PM in Tehran and that is correct time in Tehran. So this looks to be live.
Perhaps he reached that mega-star status, and now is on high demand as from one concluded gig immediately to yet another just starting elsewhere..
A lot of these YT channels have seen a surge in subscribers. Larry Wilkerson left early because he had another interview to do.
Next gen Operation Paperclip media ecosystem. Unveiled during the plandemic. Six years old now. Previously known as astroturfing. All your bases are belong to us, including the inside of your head.
ZH just picked up on this story.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-fighter-jet-downed-iran-large-aerial-search-underway-crew
Lots more in this video also. Talking about the enemies that Donald Trump is making. What is going wrong politically.
The Us needs to switch to all electric cars, while some auto plants are retooling the others will start building thousands of drones. Iran will be shut down, it takes manpower to launch theirs but no one will be allowed in the open for weeks. We once fill the skys over Germany with planes, we can do that to Iran with drones. I know “sleeper cells”, those guys have been under surveillance for years, they will be rolled up.
Wishful thinking. You do realize that new cars are now out of reach for the already strapped average American consumer, right? The same consumers who can’t afford an emergency repair of $500.
Electric vehicles are more expensive than ICE vehicles. Now China knows how to build EV’s at a low costs. Some of their EV’s sell for the equivalent of $8,000 – 10,000. No way can the US build electric vehicles that cheap, nor will they allow them in the US.
And thing is, we have p*ssed off China and they have rare earths and processing capabilities that we don’t have.
So we see what Iran can do, why haven’t they already done it. Because they were saving it until after they nuked Israel. Then they could say “Don’t touch us, we will close the Strait”. We have called their hand so they are doing it now. We called Hitler’s hand only after he controlled all of Europe, we are already committed to a free Iran. We just have to keep going.
Iran is fighting an asymmetrical war. They were attacked twice during so called negotiations with two Israeli assets in Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff who neither have any diplomatic experience. They are two business weasels.
They have complete control of Hormuz and will decide who they let thru. Trump admitted that the US can not gain control of Hormuz. He told the Europeans to go take control of Hormuz.
Iran is already free. It just does not want to end like Venezuela or Europe. got some yuans?
We just have to keep going?
Who do we think are we?
Where do we think we’re going?
And where did all these daddios pop up from?
I feel like I’ve been transported back to the 1950s in a DeLorean and landed smack bang in the middle of a mental asylum full of people who think it’s perfectly fine to free other people by bombing them back into the Stone Age.. where they belong.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWo3wbPgM9f/
If its nothing but electric cars, then what do you do with all the gasoline? Just burn it off? That is how it used to work when Diesel engines first showed up.
The world needs Diesel. Gasoline sales, make Diesel cost effective.
Electric cars are just extra steps. There is no efficiency there.
Good point! We need to make use of all parts of a barrel of oil. The US has lots of gasoline. The tight oil provides gasoline, but little diesel.
” While it only produces 20% of global crude supplies, the Persian Gulf effectively accounts for more than a third of global diesel supply because its sour crude is the key feedstock for the world’s most efficient (and largest) refineries. Additionally, Persian Gulf refining capacity has grown from roughly 8 to about 13 million b/d over the past two decades, with new, highly complex export refineries (Al‑Zour, Jazan, Ruwais, Duqm) designed to run heavy/sour crude and maximize diesel yields. ” ?
https://x.com/porterstansb/status/2039786025946644608?s=20
Are there people who actually taste this stuff?
Like sommeliers taste wine?
Ok, put all the lighter weight vehicles on battery electric. For heavy weight trucks and tractors use fossil fuel / battery hybrids. I don’t see why you couldn’t use a petrol generator, or a natural gas generator or a diesel generator. The weight of the combination of fossil fuel + tank + generator still gives you better kilowatts per kilogram than good batteries.
The best of the both worlds aka plug-in hybrids..
The batt has to be sized correctly say ~20-40kWh packs at the minimum for econobox class which many manufs were NOT able / !willing to provide in previous design cycles ( and say ~30-50kWh for small vans, non awd pickups, .. ).
Obviously this is costlier ( entry only ! ) approach having both power systems on board, but on the energy efficiency the best for combined local urban and partial hw usage of our prevalent ( sub/extra urban ) living arrangements..
Also manufs NOT exalted from the prospects of people then keeping carz longish ~15-20yrs per copy.. Plus many other factors..
It’s a very complex interaction of contradictory aims.
PS also if they suddenly find out some extra cheap batt chem., then obviously the outcome is self evident..
I suggest tractors. Lamborghini near my home town (who also make cars for rich people) has made gasoline tractors for 50+ years. I have three smaller tractors which could well be powered by a 5 liters gasoline engine. The two big tractors and the bulldozer, no.
Yes compact tractors ( from IT ) are great, and the plethora of rear PTO special implements is staggering..
Well, in practice though, certain tasks are still better done via (properly lifted up) ordinary pickup bed, chiefly small-er scale forestry, re-cultivation work etc. For one thing the small tractor and its attached trailer ( in their combo length ) can (DO) get at certain terrain conditions ( ravines, craters from tree roots ) out of balance – so the cargo on the trailer either wants to spill down or is dangerously pivoting only to one side etc. Obviously, that’s chiefly consideration for hilly region-countries, for most of the ~flat lands it’s less of an issue.
They are not compact, just small. Two of them are MTZ 82.1 and the third is a variant of it. They can make all hay operations but have trouble with the hay cart (11 bales) and also with the seeder and silage ops.
Iran damages another desalination plant in Kuwait. First Bahrain, now Kuwait. If this keeps up, the GCC will not be able to support people. Also former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says that the Gulf states don’t have a sewer system in place. They are very expensive outhouses. Human waste gets pumped out everyday via city trucks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iran-attacks-kuwaiti-desalination-plant-bring-gulf-water-supplies-focus
I posted this several years ago . Burj Khalifa ‘s poop problem . Dubai was (is) a ‘boob job ‘ .
Our sewer system is based on the idea that there is water to flush away waste. With only desalinated water, this is not available.
This sort of reminds me of the problem of going back to substituting horses for vehicles. There is too much waste to cart away.
This is how it was done in ancient times:
Deuteronomy 23:12-13
English Standard Version
12 “You shall have a place outside the camp, and you shall go out to it. 13 And you shall have a trowel with your tools, and when you sit down outside, you shall dig a hole with it and turn back and cover up your excrement.
We are addressing two distinct realms: arid climate and wetter one, ..
In arid climate ( pre / low civ level ) you just dig a shallow hole and cover it, or let it bake in the strong sunshine-wind and later evenings use as fuel to the camp fire ( adding to the the more fibrous animal dung variety ).
In arid climate ( high civ ) the water is still scarce so you don’t have a classic wide dia sewage system undergrounds, but instead spec trucks sucking in it out of bldgs ~each day into treatment facility.
In ~wet climate area ( apart from the legacy obvious ) you can also humanure-it, but that’s kind of more delicate step-wise process, hence I’m not doing it for the moment as fertil. can be ~easier obtained elsewhere – not pressed enough to seek such uber-efficiency..
Is it possible that oil prices will spike and stay up? With the soh closed and resources destroyed. It might be that airlines go out of business and people can’t drive a 3/4 ton truck to get their groceries. The resources will be used to maintain the system. Fracking is expected to decline in 2027 and will probably decline faster now that prices are up
If prices are up, it will encourage the fracking of poorer quality reservoirs, so higher prices, by themselves, would tend to raise fracking.
What would lower fracking is broken supply lines. Quite a bit of steel pipe is sourced from China, for example.
It is all relative. In dollars? probably, as Treasuries liquidation will increase inflation in the US. In inflation adjusted 2005 dollars probably not. In yuans? most probably not.
The European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, conducted an interview with the Financial Times this Friday in which he insisted that the problems that the war has unleashed will not end with peace. “This will be a prolonged crisis… energy prices will be higher for a long time.” He also commented that the EU is analyzing “all the possibilities” to deal with this situation. Among these options, the release of more oil from strategic reserves stands out, according to him.
Hmm… interesting
Kevin has a new video up. An important one IMHO, though this news is covered by a wide variety of sources. De-dollarization in real time.
Bullets:
Foreign central banks and institution are selling off their holdings of US Treasury bonds.
The war against Iran is driving bondholders to dump US government debt at a record pace, and foreign Treasury holdings at the NY Fed are at the lowest level in nearly fifteen years.
The heavy liquidations are driving bond yields in the United States higher, and borrowing costs for government, and American households and businesses, are spiking higher.
Thanks! This is important because dumping US government bonds is leading to higher interest rates. These higher interest rates make it more difficult to buy a home or new factory. These higher interest rates are likely to make the balance sheets of banks look worse because their low yielding long term bonds will decline in value. With a worse balance sheet, banks may be less inclined to lend, even apart from the higher interest rate problem.
I expect that this effect will move an increasing share of US borrowing to very short term borrowing. This will mean a huge amount of debt changing hands every quarter. These interest rates may rise, as well, I would think.
The caveat which Kevin mentions here is whether these countries are merely changing the custodian of the US Treasuries, ie. not really selling them but making it look like they’re selling them when in reality they are transfering them to different custodians like Hong Kong to avoid the possibility of seizure — like what the US did to Russia. And then there are the Eurodollars outside the US control. Will there be some kind of swap so that these treasuries are sold in exchange for Eurodollars or stablecoins to escape the US grab? Who knows?
If there wasn’t net selling, rates wouldn’t rise. If they were just being moved/transferred, there would be no net selling. Ergo there is net selling.
** Of course there is no net selling and never can be, only net selling at a given price; for every seller, there is always a buyer.
The US Treasury’s printers are working overtime while the grid lasts.
They are selling treasures for the same reason gold and silver have been getting sold. Eurodollar banks aren’t providing dollars. Not de-dollarization. They are providing dollars that Eurodollar banks are unwilling to.
Re-dollarization if you want to call it that will happen when it’s all clear for Eurodollar banks to lend freely and cheaply again.
Selling treasuries is just tapping the piggy bank, the savings, for dollar liquidity. Not a move away from the dollar.
US banks are more than willing to buy everything that’s is getting sold btw. The debt is cheap compared to it was when yields were near zero.
“The United States Treasury just repurchased $15 billion of its own debt in a single operation, the largest buyback in American history. Forty-three billion dollars was offered by dealers. The Treasury accepted the maximum. ”
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2040084471157068176?s=20
From the Treasury auction screenshot above:
Operation date: April 1, 2026
Settlement date: April 2, 2026
Maturity date ends: Q1 2028
This is a truly sad situation:
The war costs money. The money is borrowed. The borrowing requires a functioning bond market. The bond market requires liquidity operations. The liquidity operations require the Treasury to buy its own debt. The circle is complete. The government funds the war by issuing bonds, then buys the bonds back to keep the market liquid enough to issue more bonds to fund more war. This is not a crisis. It is what a $39 trillion balance sheet looks like when it is working as designed. And the fact that “working as designed” requires the government to be its own market-maker is the signal that every sovereign debt analyst should be reading tonight.
It’s cheap paper and it’s going increase in value with deflation.
Not only is it cheap paper. US dealer banks are holding a record amount. It’s the collateral.
No collateral = no money
What is the collateral going to be for creating loans in Chinese yuan? The collateral has to be abundant otherwise it becomes impossible for anyone to obtain credit. Can’t be gold or silver or some combination of commodities.
Are people really going to buy Chinese debt?
De-dollarization equals a much stronger dollar. People tend to only see demand for dollars going away. When supply of dollars go away just a fast. Maybe faster in such a scenario.
The purchasing power of the dollar will go through the roof not the floor. I hold a lot of dollars. Saudi Arabia has a lot of dollars even China has a lot of dollars.
I’m totally fine with de-dollarization. I would increase my purchasing power:
If hormuz was closed 2 or 3 weeks maybe we can recovery . Maybe can back to normale. But After 1 month the collapse Is Total sure 100 💯💯💯
I’ve had this conversation with like 20 people at this point but people who know the ex-USSR are the only people who understand what’s happening in America.
A signifigant portion of the American elite has lost interest in the American project and is stripping the walls of copper wiring, and the American people are letting them do it because they’re in denial and obsessed with the equivalents of Limonov and Kashpirovsky.
https://x.com/ThatchEffendi/status/2039766157247263194
Definitely – but on a somewhat higher/deeper technological level. Late grandma and mother were obsessed with Kashpirovsky (of course, such a good looking, dominant, Ukrainian/Khazarian man…). Numerous “sightings” of UFOs and reports or rural (Slavic) girls (those with golden grills – “nobody” would marry them otherwise, you know…) miraculously impregnated by the “Aliens” – all reports disappeared abruptly by Summer of 1991…
The difference (and ask Dmitry Orlov, if you don’t believe me) – Soviet sheeple was (and is) submissive, emaciated and largely feminine, while ‘Murcan cattle is well-fed, violent and demanding. I’m afraid, a very strong BNS would be necessary to subdue the very violent and very impatient Feral ‘Murcan Joggers…
Yes, this envelope of inquiry could be extended to Chinese/Asian pop specifics or South American instead, each grouping still maintains some core-key characteristics through the ages. Hence the lite veneer of the oil age could not have wash it away all and everywhere as quickly as some assume/d..
In terms of Russian realm, you have to take into account the authoritative rule cont. tradition ( and adaptation to it ) for centuries, as well as the large blood letting from WW1+, WW2, post Soviet 1990s despair – alc abuse etc.
You Tube full of stories of 2:17 AM Iranian attack on Israel’s F-35 At Nevatim and Ramon airports. 60% of the F-35 fleet wiped out in 30minutes. All of videos these are AI. I guess we will have to wait to see how much is true.
Is that face a merge of Scott Ritter and asian guy?
Scott Litter?
He’s turning Japanese
I think he’s turning Japanese
I really think so
He’s obviously immensely enjoying telling the story of how Iran has wiped out dozens of Israeli F-35s in a single op. Indeed, he can hardly keep the smile or smirk off his face.
But it’s mostly because he can rub the noses of his former colleagues in the US intelligence community in the dirt for getting their assessments of Iran’s strike capabilities so wrong.
He was also 100% correct regarding The false charge of Saddam Hussein Iraq WMD. I attended one speaking event of his back then in Boston Mass.
At least the Republican Bush Administration had the polish to go through the motions of political protocol.
This bimbo lacks the whole package of Colin Powell steps. No excuse for this blunder.
Haven’t seen anything about that, although Ramat David airbase(F16s apparently) was hit.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/wave-92–irgc-strikes-us-amphibious-boats–israeli-f-16-squa
The big talk at the moment seems to be the downed F35 and the failed rescue of the pilot.
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/03/3555907/us-effort-to-recover-downed-fighter-pilot-fails
It’s a fake AI video!
That video looks fake, AI video? His typical voice cadence is off, his face looks slightly different (slightly younger) and no one else is reporting his claims.
No follow up to this story. I conclude it is fake news that has been spewed on multiple YT channels. This serves as a good example why you have to take everything on the internet with a huge grain of salt.
No matter the medium, whenever people are involved, even in person, there is a lot to be gained by deceiving others.
Europe must prepare for ‘long-lasting’ energy shock, EU energy commissioner tells FT
“April 3 (Reuters) – The EU is assessing “all possibilities” including fuel rationing and releasing more oil from emergency reserves as it braces for a “long-lasting” energy shock from the Middle East war, the Financial Times reported on Friday in an interview with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen.
“This will be a long crisis … energy prices will be higher for a very long time,” Dan Jorgensen told the FT, saying that for some more “critical” products “we expect it to be even worse in the weeks to come”.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-must-prepare-long-lasting-energy-shock-eu-energy-commissioner-tells-ft-2026-04-03/?taid=69cf7008e1f7f1000147ee60&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
It would be nice if all the diesel pickups lost >65% re-sale value over night.
Sadly, won’t happen like that.. hah.
(need them only in very short range app.)
With no diesel availability diesel pickups will not be able to be given away ,it will happen this year most definitely.diesel will be redirected to agriculture.
Sorry, you meant it like there will be some ban/mandate as completely pull them out of the streets and or registration ?
I’d say that’s impossible in NAmerican setting
and futile in EUR context as there are just too few of them, besides the economy itself ( not large int transforwarding ) runs on small displacement diesels ~1.6-2l engines in vans only anyway ( sipping little juice ) ..
A good conversation about the strait closure, petro-yuan, the interests of neighbor countries, etc.
The big story now is that de-dollarization is taking place right now. Oil must be bought in Yuan or cryptocurrency. Apply to the right Iranian authority for passage. Restrictions are very strict now. Recognized by the Iranian parliament. Every country is following this approach and it is working–moved away from US$.
Good insights on how reasonable (or not) attempted land attacks are.
Now we have a new operating system in operation, with the full support of Russia and China.
Russia is helping Iran, but it keeps the story hidden. China helps Iran outright. Allows Iranian missiles to be very accurate.
https://no01.substack.com/p/so-much-winning
action packed document.. thanks
one angle the author only (pre)hinted in passing, this whole dynamics pushes India closer to that RU-CHN alliance, which they in India for various true or merely obfuscation tactics reasons ~stalled or paced and structured in way meandering slower manner up to this point..
From the link:
The Strait of Hormuz has been successfully transitioned from a free international waterway into a revenue-generating toll infrastructure, administered by the IRGC with a published fee schedule, a vetting corridor near Larak Island, and legislation pending to make it permanent. Ships currently pay $2 to $3.5 million per transit, settling in yuan through CIPS, which bypasses SWIFT entirely and represents a significant upgrade in settlement efficiency.
India has adopted the yuan. Japan has adopted the renminbi. Pakistan negotiated preferential rates at 2 tankers per day. Thailand secured bilateral access. Only COSCO, China’s state shipping line, moves freely, which streamlines the user experience considerably if you happen to be Chinese. The dollar’s share of global reserves has reached its lowest level in a century, which suggests the new framework is being broadly embraced.
This is the petrodollar in transition. The mechanism that has underwritten American empire since 1974 – Gulf oil priced in dollars, revenues recycled through US Treasuries, quietly funding a $39 trillion debt – is being replaced in real time by a yuan-denominated corridor that didn’t exist 5 weeks ago. And unlike a military defeat, which can be spun and repackaged for a news cycle to consumers with the attention span of a goldfish, a reserve currency transition is a one-way door.
Trump tells aides that he is willing to end war without opening Hormuz
Flexibility in goal-setting is a hallmark of mature organisations, and the administration demonstrated this by quietly reclassifying the reopening of Hormuz from “strategic imperative” to “optional”. The waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s oil, that the war was partly launched to secure, is no longer required for the war’s conclusion. This frees up considerable strategic bandwidth to focus on objectives that are also not being achieved, but in less publicly measurable ways.
Seven Global Shortages
Crude Oil 20%
LNG 20%
Phosphate 30%
Helium 30%
Ammonia 30%
Sulfur 45%
Urea 50%
All those key macronutrients were successfully eliminated from global supply chains simultaneously, and during planting season no less. . .
India, producer of 40% of US generic drugs, sources 87.7% of its methanol through the same 21 miles we just helped close, putting paracetamol, ibuprofen, and metformin for 537 million diabetics on an accelerated depreciation schedule.
The helium and semiconductor precursor chains have been successfully consolidated toward China, streamlining the global dependency structure.
The few non-Chinese sources of gallium – a semiconductor precursor – have been dismantled in favour of a single consolidated Chinese pipeline.
Don’t trust Trump’s announcements!
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has begun posting trading advice between missile salvos, telling followers to treat Trump’s announcements as reverse indicators. When a wartime adversary monetises your press releases more efficiently than your own allies, the information architecture is performing above expectations.
Private Credit
The volatility is also helpfully stress-testing the financial plumbing. Private credit funds that loaded up during the cheap-money years are proactively reducing investor exposure as the AI bubble meets the liquidity crunch.
Many military issues
Iran also launched a flare decoy operation over Dubai that depleted roughly half the city’s interceptor stock chasing false heat signatures, demonstrating that the adversary is also innovating on cost efficiency – their expenditure on the operation was approximately zero. The manufacturer has since promised to quadruple production. THAAD output for 2026 remains at zero, but quadruple zero is still zero, so technically the target is already met.
RUSI forecasts Israel’s Arrow interceptors will be “completely expended” by April. It is April.
The cost-exchange ratio deserves recognition. Iran’s total offensive expenditure for the entire war: approximately $200 million. The Pentagon has requested $200 billion in supplemental funding. That’s a 1,000-to-1 ratio, which is the kind of return on capital most venture funds would kill for – just not usually on this end of it.
Iran has no navy and no air force worth mentioning. It turns out you don’t need either.
Every Gulf state hosting a US base has received Iranian attention. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain – Camp Buehring in Kuwait alone had hangars, barracks, a gym, warehouses, and a power station serviced by Iranian munitions. The one GCC country Iran overlooked: Oman. Oman has no American bases. . . Having a US base, it turns out, doesn’t enhance your security portfolio. It puts you on the mailing list.
The CIA’s own classified assessment concluded the regime would survive. “Possibly more radical and entrenched than before” – the moderates discredited by the bombs, the hardliners emboldened by surviving them. Trump was told this before he approved.
The programme has thus achieved the rare distinction of making the enemy simultaneously more radical and less reachable.
And much more!
”And sulfur is not the only invisible casualty. The strait carried helium for semiconductor cooling. It carried naphtha for petrochemical feedstock. It carried urea for fertiliser. It carried LNG for Asian power generation. Each one feeds a different supply chain. Each supply chain feeds a different industry. Each industry feeds a different population. The war hit one chokepoint and the damage radiated outward through the periodic table like cracks through glass, following the molecular bonds that connect everything to everything. ” ?
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2039888538746138837?s=20
Please add in that the facilities are damaged and require years of repair. All of them damaged – helium, sulphur, naphtha, urea. They cannot be turned on immediately. It is not possible to carry them by plane or trucks
Good points!
I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth.
Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market.
If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history.
If they don’t like the oil price? They can just “adjust” the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want.
If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? “No passage for UAE tankers.” If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? “Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime.”
By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything.
Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran?
Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent.
“Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to.
Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico.”
It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made.
I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation.
And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms.
And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months?
Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don’t even need a fancy excuse: “Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it’s not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!”
Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire.
Thanks for listening to my TED Talk 🙂
https://x.com/CRUDEOIL231/status/2039787252113612944
That ties in with the Tucker Carlson video. This war has turned Iran into a global power because they control what passes thru the SOH. This war was a total clusterf##k of epic proportions.
The A-holes who decided to throw the entire planet under the bus have not achieved a single goal. There’s no regime change, Iran is fighting back, it now controls the world’s most important passageway. It has destroyed US bases in the ME. It’s pummeling Israel and it has the global economy in a vise grip.
We can thank USrael for that.
so this is going to be a very long war. might as well start another one in taiwan.
Out of weapons, I am afraid.
Maybe China can start one in the Strait of Taiwan now that Uncle Sam got itself neutered.
That definitely would be WWIII
some war! with one participant failing to show up. In one year Russia can Oreshnik Aegis systems in Poland and Romania with impunity.
Well, at least from the news cycle the next frontier is Scandinavia, especially that border with Finland, all closer to gas installation and navigation corridors in these northern seas..
PL, RO will fizzle out – or rather get very busy with that W-UKR rump state-let eventually.
The GCC role is way over-done in this piece..
For one thing if you compare – contrast it with the various global shadow poolz of money estimated to the notional tune of hundreds of trillions, so where they are in it ~5-10% at max?
Also the diversified-ying ( food, tech , domestic energy, .. ) big boyz ala CHN will treat them now openly in disdain as 2-3rd degree also runs of the globo industrial / fin economy. Moreover, don’t be surprised should they end up by the side of the post ” PO road ” sooner than expected, among the first / second on the menu actually.
Wartime fuel shortages spawn panic, robberies and killings in Asia
Painful fuel shortages are beginning to drive violence and instability in parts of Asia, adding to the cascade of repercussions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
In Bangladesh, illegal syndicates are stealing fuel in the middle of the night and raiding transport vehicles to stockpile supplies, according to a trade association for gas station owners. Gas pump workers in Bangladesh as well as in neighboring India and nearby Pakistan have been killed in fuel thefts or rage-driven assaults over the lack of supplies, authorities said. And in the Philippines last week, thousands of transportation workers went on strike to protest soaring diesel prices.
“This is a madness. This is intolerable,” Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, an adviser to Bangladesh’s prime minister, said in an interview Monday, his voice rising in exasperation. “Where is the global conscience to solve this crisis?”
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/world/2026/04/02/wartime-fuel-shortages-spawn-panic-robberies-killings-asia/89432773007/
Literally fighting over fuel.
to repeat myself—from at least 10 years ago—
we will not run of of oil….
we will kill each other fighting over what’s left
and here we are—welcome to your future…
1) Yes, the economy changes usable energy to non usable energy. (dissipative)
2)And yes, current estimates of oil and nat gas is about 50 years and coal is about 120 odd years. But this is at todays technology. (“The “years left” estimates (reserves-to-production or R/P ratios) for oil, natural gas, and coal have remained remarkably stable—or even increased—over the past 20, 50, and 75 years, despite massive growth in global consumption and production.”-grok.)
This means the technology is slightly out pacing the growing usage.
3) The world’s growing energy usage is slowing. ( footnote-global energy usage (total primary energy demand) is not expected to accelerate in the coming decades. In fact, the opposite is true in nearly all major forecasts: the annual growth rate is projected to slow compared to the past 10–20 years, due to rapid gains in energy efficiency, widespread electrification (which cuts waste heat losses from burning fuels), and a shift toward renewables. Demand for energy services (heating, cooling, mobility, data/AI, etc.) will keep rising strongly — especially in emerging economies like India, Southeast Asia, and Africa — but we’ll need less raw energy input to deliver it.-grok)
4) But the technology to increase usable energy is accelerating (footnote-Yes — technology for increasing “usable” energy resources (primarily proven reserves and recovery rates for oil, natural gas, and to a lesser extent coal) is accelerating in 2025–2026, driven by a new wave of AI, digitalization, and advanced enhanced oil recovery (EOR). This is not the same explosive “shale revolution” pace of the 2005–2015 era, but it represents a fresh acceleration in efficiency and reserve additions from existing fields and maturing plays. Industry reports describe it as a “holistic technology acceleration” or “breakneck pace,” with AI alone potentially unlocking hundreds of billions to over a trillion extra barrels of oil without major new discoveries.
woodmac.com)
5) is the technology feasible, yes. (footnote-Yes — the technology to increase “usable” energy resources (AI-driven optimization, advanced enhanced oil recovery/EOR, digital twins, and related tools for oil, natural gas, and coal) is not only feasible but already proven, deployed at scale, and delivering measurable real-world results as of 2026. It is moving well beyond pilots into industrial application by major operators, with documented gains in recovery rates, cost reductions, and reserve additions. This directly builds on the acceleration we discussed earlier.
woodmac.com +1)
Conclusion, there is, and will continue to be, more than enough energy to power the economies of the future. The only thing to keep the energy going into the economical sufficient to sustain itself is human innovation. This is what the late great J Simon showed and the data still backs him-https://humanprogress.org/simonproject/
interesting.
ask grok about diminishing returns on all resources.
even with brief gains in efficiencies lately, all metals and minerals resources are needing ever more energy to maintain the same level of production.
the diminishing returns on energy resources are especially problematic.
5 decades ago, the Energy Cost of Energy was about 2%, so for every 100 gross units of produced energy, 98 units were available to use anywhere else in the economy besides just in energy extraction.
now ECoE is about 11% and rising by about 0.5% per year.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
the available surplus energy is only 89% and falling.
degrowth is inevitable and imminent and irreversible.
and too bad that the ME war has shut in so much energy resources which will never fully recover and have totally overwhelmed any minor AI gains.
degrowth is here, IC cannot last, it MUST end someday, probably late in this century.
it’s nothing to worry about.
🙈
quote——////with AI alone potentially unlocking hundreds of billions to over a trillion extra barrels of oil without major new discoveries. —-/////
Where do you dream up this stuff????
i want to know, so I can share in it.
My new car is full of ”AI”—it tells me all kinds of stuff while i’m driving…I’m old enough to remember when a radio was an ‘extra”—now I need a degree in aeronautics just to read the dashboard.
however—–
unless i plug the thing in overnight, my car does nothing and goes nowhere.
which sums up your laughable concept about AI delivering 1 trn new barrels of oil….
Good one, I remember too when power steering in a car was “extra”, also air conditioning was “extra”, power windows and locks were “extra”, and now the car manufacturers have offered us ongoing “subscription services” so the damn thing functions. That’s a good tool for AI…
PS My best model car was a 200 cubic in straight six Ford Falcon. My family had many in the 1970s, bought used from the 1960s era. All paid in cash….1964, 1965, 1967 , still missing them..the Ford Fairmont was it’s replacement, which I owned too, but a cheaper version.
I knew you were going to say something like this, Norman.
For you, that “with AI alone” quote was like a red rag to a bull.
I asked AI how AI could help us squeeze more oil out of the ground. Here’s what AI told me:
Short answer
AI increases recoverable oil by improving the decisions and control throughout the upstream lifecycle: better subsurface interpretation, improved well placement and completion design, smarter reservoir management and production optimization, and faster, cheaper iteration of models and operations. Those gains come from combining large datasets, advanced pattern recognition, faster uncertainty quantification and closed‑loop control so operators can extract more oil from existing fields than traditional workflows allowed.
If you would like to read a longer answer, I can print reams of ideas and estimates that AI has dreamed up. But I doubt you would want to read it as your attention span is much much shorter than that of AI.
But the bottom line is, AI is a force multiplier. it reduces uncertainty, speeds decision-making, and optimizes many small choices across the asset lifecycle.
Those cumulative improvements can raise the share of in-place oil that is technically and economically recoverable—especially in mature fields where better imaging, modeling and closed‑loop production can squeeze more oil out of existing reservoirs.
However, headline numbers such as billions and trillions should be read with extreme caution. Real-world gains depend on mundane things like data quality, economics, organizational adoption, and regulatory and climate-policy constraints. There’s no point in AI finding a trillion barrels more recoverable oil if Al Gore comes along and says, “Oooooh, no you don’t!”
I suppose it may extend a few years of Joe 6 pak in his pickup truck driving on the freeway or Karen, soccer mom, in her SUV , so it’s definitely worth the expense.
I’m certain of that…sarcasm
AI increases recoverable oil by improving the decisions and control throughout the upstream lifecycle: better subsurface interpretation, improved well placement and completion design, smarter reservoir management and production optimization, and faster, cheaper iteration of models and operations. Those gains come from combining large datasets, advanced pattern recognition, faster uncertainty quantification and closed‑loop control so operators can extract more oil from existing fields than traditional workflows allowed.”
Sorry Tim but this has got my BS meter pegging.
“improved well placement and completion design”
So we have the fracked well fields that are overpopulated. All the best sites taken. I doubt that “improved well placement will make much of a difference in this scenario.
“faster, cheaper iteration of models and operations”
Am I to suppose Ai will eliminate the need for steel drilling pipe? Is Ai going to redesign and improve drill platforms that have been tested, improved upon for 100 years, such that operations are cheaper? faster?
“Those gains come from combining large datasets, advanced pattern recognition, faster uncertainty quantification and closed‑loop control. ”
This is a fancy way of saying that with little oil left to locate, large datasets and advanced pattern recognition are needed to locate it because it is inherently more difficult.
AI will be used for undersea exploration no doubt. I just do not buy all the hype regarding solving our energy problem.
I use an AI assistant for help in writing python code for Ansys. It is scary powerful…but our energy situation will not be solved by AI I think.
correct
ai will improve our techniques for doing all sorts of things…
my point about plugging in my car—was that ai cannot, and will never create new sources of energy….it needs an external energy source to make it do anything at all. (check out datacentres)
the problem we face is that the flat earthers of this world (sitting on their flat version) remain convinced that it will…
which leads us into the secondary problem (which might prove even more difficult)…..
that as we suck the last drops of oil out of earth’s beer (oil) mats, it costs more and more to do it…..while the flat earthers of this world see oil as just, well—oil.
but oil, of itself is useless and valueless until it is converted into something else.
and that ”something else” has to be affordable in real terms to joe public.
Some skulls are simply too thick for that to penetrate—(from donnie downwards)
When oil was $2 a barrel, and the world was awash with the stuff, we could create “the American Dream”… (as well as fight world wars)
AI will never recreate that—there isnt enough surplus in each barrel to allow it.—and it was ‘surplus” that allowed our pleasant existemce to be.
NOT oil per se—but the surplus energy within it.
cheap oil has been a one shot wonder—and we blew it—
If they ever make another Mad max movie, you are the dude they will ask to do the opening monologue.
If I were you, I’d practice my Aussie accent.
How’s this for predictive programming? What was pure escapist fantasy in 1981 is now looking more and more like a documentary of recent events.
Jesse, I think your BS meter is functioning correctly. I am also skeptical of AI’s ability to allow us to produce significant actual results in the real world,
However, AI can talk the hind legs off a donkey, as my grandmother used to say.
One thing AI will do is make our complex society even more complex. And we all know what Peter Turchin said about complex societies: they become increasingly fragile and then they break down and collapse.
I am afraid we are getting a real-life example of how your thinking is not working in practice in Southeast Asia and Australia, right now.
Date Brent hits USD141.
People/media/alternative media keeps on saying “we are at the brink of energy catastrophe”.
No, we are not at the brink. We are already in it. It is just that everyone refuse to acknowledge it. The last oil tanker has reached its destination.
You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequence of ignoring reality… Rand
So, in this present situation, we have answered the question that is bugging people : “Why did the Easter Islander not notice their forest is gone when the person chopped down the last tree?”
Good luck and all the best to us
This has the potential to get far worse.
“No, we are not at the brink. We are already in it.”
sorry that seenile retardedTrump has caused this for you people in Asia.
but it’s not “we” all over the world, it’s mostly you Asians.
Europe looks to be next with a few weeks delay.
I hope this small regional war will end this week, and then by later this year or sometime next year, life in Asia will get better.
There is no higher power in the universe than physics. Physics is the highest power.
Gail didn’t say that the proposed higher power was higher than natural law (physics). She said the higher power behind the physics of the situation. And by situation she did not mean civilizational collapse due to energy collapse. She meant the stoopid appearing Iran war.. We can know that because she talks about Trump producing the required result, and nobody sane would talk about either God or physics getting involved in causing the Iran war in order to produce the required result.
What is the required result? Restructuring civilization into a more adaptive structure that can better deal with Collapse than can globalization, with the means by which that restructuring is accomplished being the ostensibly stoopid Iran war on the public face of it but which is actually being carried out with hidden intelligence.
Why does she express these ideas cryptically? Because it’s a touchy subject.
Hope that helps.
Hilarious,
Physics describes the simplest interaction of mater and energy.
But Luciferian Scientific Materialist have made it into their godless religion.
You are mischaracterizing both Avian’s position and physics.
No air defense in Israel as Iranian strikes intensify (video).
https://www.rt.com/news/636981-iran-war-us-israel-trump/
“Remember the Deagle list that showed large population drops?
I had aI compare it to the oil situation and there’s something there-
Strong overlap
Japan: Deagel projected a sizable drop, and Japan is one of the most oil-exposed countries in the current shock.
South Korea: Deagel projected a large drop, and current reporting puts South Korea among Asian countries ramping up dirtier fuels to cover shortfalls.
UK / France / parts of Europe: Deagel projected big drops for several Western European countries, and Europe is now dealing with major fuel-price and supply pressure.
Australia / New Zealand: Deagel projected large declines, and current global reporting says even wealthier countries like Australia are being hit by fuel theft, protests, and emergency responses.
https://x.com/TheKanehB/status/2039846080071008621
Deagel’s timing was a little early, however.
Thank you, Gail, for this rational and logical explanation of our energy predicament. Unfortunately predicaments have outcomes, not solutions, so we’re going to have to manage our downward energy descent.
Your comment: “I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.”
– a little chilling.
People seem to somehow adjust to changing situations. For example, populations in which a substantial share a babies die before their first birthday sometimes don’t name their baby until the first birthday.
If things are getting worse, in general, taking care out our own health would seem to be the first priority. Also, enjoying each day as it comes. People won’t need to save up money for the future because the money likely won’t buy as much in the future, since fewer goods will be available to purchase.
” Also, enjoying each day as it comes. ”
On that note, it’s always a cringe-moment in sight when seemingly [ upper upper middle classes ] or [ the rich ] eat out occasionally from these fast-food chain sys, giants.. It signals – projects immaturity, bounder-level idiocy, empty soul and life-story, ..
It’s a completely different occurrence to support / explore true local fastfood corner with proven recipe and dedication though, that was not my aim to criticize obviously..
Do you think early death is a feature of nature? My mother’s family had nine live births with two dying very young. The other seven lived into their nineties, men and women. Of course they were Norwegian and a gathering consisted of who could shout the loudest. The discussions were broken by a morning and afternoon coffee; very hard to yell with mouth full of food.
Idea is not mine, had a very incredible and influential prof/advisor, a geneticist; he also observed that early advanced medical child care was perhaps not consistent with a strong genome.
Dennis L.
Nature calls for survival of the best adapted. We have figured out how to keep babies with huge problems alive. They continue to have huge problems later. That is at least part of our cost of high healthcare.
that is just a very short term anomaly—
it will not be a long term problem
Well depends on your perception of time-space. As that link at top of the comment page recapitulates: ~hominids go back 10M, respectively 2M years if we talk about basic ” toolz ” like grabbing big juicy ants from their colony by tiny stick or sturdy grass stalk..
Now we terra-formed the planet for our food choices, build ourselves reactors, missiles, batts with ~long/er cyclelife, and what have you..
So, do we evolve yet even more or rather crash down.. ?
That’s the Q:uest-ion.
lets not forget the nosediving fertility rate. less people no violence.
Your conclusion on this post, immediately bought to mind your recommendation at the onset of the Covid scamdemic, was not to vaccinate, quarantine, or shut down the economy, rather to just let it and natural immunity run its course.
I suspect this Iran war will be the hard start of the decline in the global economy with the paradox of lower prices leading the way to demand destruction.
The question is, do you believe in a green chicken?
OIl prices tend to spike and collapse. I wouldn’t be surprised if they fall again. They fell very low in 2008; the fell very low in 2020. Both of these were after big price spikes.
The years 2011 through 2013 were supported by lots of growth in debt and low interest rates. Also, it was before the big growth in production from the Permian that helped lower oil prices.
again… the difference now and last time – the taps were not smashed last time
Good point
Matthew Simmons wrote about 1000$ oil being permanent oil price at one stage he was advising George Bush perhaps the elders want this now.
India: Mock drill announced in delhi at 8 PM today for preparedness for emergency situation
*Sirens will be heard
*Lights will be blacked out
https://x.com/Goreunit/status/2039669034221002808
Is any kind of shelter available? If not, what is the point of the drill?
perhaps warm up for when the energy crisis explodes
I think it is a bit presumptuous for the US to rule all of South America. Maybe just to the oil of Venezuela.
hopefully the US working with the VZ oil industry will actually be a benefit to VZ.
It’s called the Monroe Doctrine…been that way for well, since President Monroe
The Monroe Doctrine, issued by President James Monroe on December 2, 1823, is a foundational U.S. foreign policy warning European nations to stop colonizing or interfering in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere. It established that the Americas were separate spheres of influence from Europe, aiming to protect newly independent Latin American nations while bolstering U.S. security
The Roosevelt Corollary (1904)The Roosevelt Corollary, articulated by President Theodore Roosevelt, amended the doctrine to state that the U.S. had the right to intervene in Latin American nations that were deemed unstable or incapable of managing their own affairs, essentially positioning the U.S. as an “international police power” in the Western Hemisphere.
Operation Epstein Fury will go down as the greatest strategic blunder in U.S.
military history. I am astonished to witness in real time the classical end
of empire roughly described by several authors, for example Arnold Toynbee,
Paul Kennedy, and Peter Turchin.
There are two important aspects about military conflict which are not often
covered in the movies: propaganda and logistics.
Propaganda is important because governments that go to war have to convince
the population to pay the economic and human costs of war as well keep up
troop moral. In any war, governments lie through their teeth. The standard
procedure is to vilify the enemy (to justify killing them), to downplay
the costs of the war, and to claim they are wining. For example in WWII the
U.S. incurred 200,000 casualties while inflicting 65,000 on the enemy. These
statistics were of course vastly distorted by the U.S. government until
after the war.
Logistics are important because without food and munitions soldiers are
ineffective.
Winning a war means attaining strategic objectives using military force. By
this definition USrael is losing. Though the USrael strategic goals were
very poorly articulated after attacking Iran, it is clear from the way the
war has played out that the USrael strategic objective was either regime
change to some sort of puppet regime controlled by USrael similar to what the
US did in Venezuala or creating a failed state, that is to say a state in
which rival factions fight for control so that the state has no cohesive
government capable of any significant foreign policy. This is basically what
USrael attained in Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Syria, etc. By this definition,
USrael is clearly losing Operation Epstein Fury.
There are currently 3 countries with hypersonic missiles: Russia, China, and
Iran. Hypersonic missiles and drones dramatically increase the home court
advantage in a war because they impose great logistical complications for an
attacking military. Many successful 20th century attacking strategies fail
because of drones. For example M1 tank battalions were hugely successful in
attacking Iraq in 2003. Attacking with tanks has been abandoned in Ukraine
because of drones. The Russians preferred attack vehicle is a motorcycle.
Hezbollah has recently destroyed dozens of Israeli Merkava tanks in just a
few days. In the 20th century having forward US bases enhanced logistics.
These bases cannot be defended from drones and hypersonic missiles. The US
has relocated most military personnel off of its bases. Iran accuses the US
of using civilian shields because much of its military personnel is in
hotels. Aircraft carriers cannot be defended against 21st century anti-ship
missiles and drones. They are obliged to loiter out of range considerably
complicating logistics.
The Trump administration thought they were playing chess when they started
Epstein Fury. They thought if they killed the king, they would win the war
during the weekend. That failed and there was obviously had no plan B. There
are no historic precedents to achieving regime change with only an air
campaign. The number of strategic errors made by Trump administration is
mind boggling. Examples:
1. Making a sneak attack while feigning to negotiate twice in 6 months.
This closes many diplomatic off ramps to the war in case it doesn’t go as
expected (as did the 12 day war in June 2025). It also simplifies Iranian
propaganda.
2. Killing over 150 school girls without taking responsibility and assuring
it would not happen again. If you want to unite the country you are
attacking against you, you can’t do better. USrael has hit numerous
civilian targets decreasing moral of soldiers and complicating USrael
propaganda while simplifying Iranian propaganda.
3. Assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei the (moderate) spiritual leader of Shia
Muslims. This is like assassinating the pope. There are Shia Muslims
throughout the Gulf. This results in blowback. For example Shia militias
in Iraq forced the US out of its Iraqi base (with the help of Iranian
missiles and drones).
4. Hegseth’s rhetoric proves his incompetence for his job. He is destroying
troop moral and facilitating Iranian propaganda. The number of U.S.
soldiers registering as conscientious objectors is far greater than any
period in the last 25 years.
5. The Trump administration’s propaganda is bad. The reason for the war was
poorly articulated and contradictory. President Trump himself seems to be
poorly informed about the war and makes statements which are obviously
false or uninformed giving the impression he is poorly informed and
desperate. Example: initially Trump offered to escort vessels through the Straight
of Hormuz with U.S. warships. Iran’s response: “Any ship accompanied by a
U.S. warship will be allowed free passage through the Straight”. U.S.
warships are carefully staying out of range of Iranian anti-ship missiles
and drones which cover the entire Persian Gulf.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains filtered, USrael is losing the war
and the dollar based world economy is in decline. In order to go through
the Strait Iran extracts a toll of the equivalent of $2 million in, I
believe, some cryptocurrency and if the cargo is oil it must not be paid for
in dollars.
I note also that people were convicted to be hung at Nuremberg for crimes
that Trump and Secretary of War Crimes Hegseth freely admit to.
“won” and “lost” are mere words that will be tossed around a lot after this small regional war ends hopefully in a week or two.
“As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains filtered, USrael is losing the war
and the dollar based world economy is in decline. In order to go through
the Strait Iran extracts a toll of the equivalent of $2 million in, I
believe, some cryptocurrency and if the cargo is oil it must not be paid for
in dollars.”
no big deal, that’s about $1 per barrel for a supertanker.
if retardedTrump desttroys much of Iran’s electric power plants and FF industry in these next 2 weeks, will Iran have “won”?
time will tell.
I think you have seriously underestimated how bad this “toll of $2 million” is. The “toll price” is presently in Yuan, and is only available to countries that “play nice” with Iran.
For some countries which Iran sees as collaborating with Israel or the US, there will likely be NO toll, and No shipping through the Strait.
Once this Iranian toll beds in as a “thing”, I can see Iran creating a list of currencies that it will not accept, and top of that list will be the $dollar. For sure the $dollar has at best two years or less, as the reserve. Indeed if I were Iran I would create a yearly “subscription” to be paid in the ultimate reserve, physical gold.
Oil is fungible, hard to say where it goes once it is on the open ocean.
Dennis L.
Thanks for your summary. I am afraid it is mostly or entirely correct.
I never wanted to die fighting for foreign nations. I never wanted my children to die fighting for foreign nations. If Trump has true;y destroyed America paying for and dying for foreigners he will have been a great president.
for better or worse he is somewhat reshaping the world.
Cuba next?
I see that we no longer worry about Iran getting a nuclear warhead and being able to blow up New York. Not everything is about energy.
I don’t think Iran’s missiles go as far as New York. London is as far as I have heard mentioned.
It is a fission bomb at most it could damage the bottom 20% of Manhattan. As to delivery, ship it a container, no need for overhead.
Iran has stated very clearly that the Soviet Union had many nuclear warheads and delivery systems, yet they faded from history. What would happen to Iran’s 6000 year civilization is they were stupid enough to nuke New York? Iran has the highest average IQ in the world. They do not need nukes to destroy, completely, the US. I am Canadian, not pro Iran, hope peace breaks out, pray for the innocent on both sides.
Steve, I think 6000 years is pushing it a bit. 3500 seems to be more accepted and they are not number 1 for IQ(that’s China).
Depending where you look, they usually come third or fourth with a score between 103.2 & 106.5.
I agree that they do not need nukes and i agree with Shekarchi, that IQ in the US appears particularly low.
Shekarchi: Donald Trump stated for the fifth time: ‘We have destroyed the Iranian armed forces.’ Well then, if you have destroyed them, are missiles raining down on your leaders and officers from Mars?
https://english.almayadeen.net/shortnews
I agree from OFW that IQ in the US is particularly low.
FF, Looking at genetic groups by both wealth and Nobel prizes might be informative.
Dennis L.
really good article.
“One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water.”
Figure 5 the ME population doubling to 300 million.
hopefully this war will end soon with most of those desalination plants intact.
of course those plants are temporary and FF powered, and that high ME population is temporary also.
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Except for the shit talk about Canada near the end of the video, this is a fantastic breakdown of the current situation in the middle east. As much as I don’t agree with a lot of what Carlson thinks in general with respect to religion and our “God given rights to bear arms” – he gives a great breakdown of the current situation in Iran. Smart dude – bit of a dick…
The breakdown he gives is nothing more that the next Establishment’s political narrative post- American coup. The Hand has put Tucker on blast. He just did a major, extended interview on NPR yesterday afternoon as I was loading up sheep. He really showed up the interviewer. Enjoy the next political Establishment. It’ll be here in a couple weeks.
I hope the sheep loved Tucker’s interview.
Do you realize one of his main jobs is to pull the wool over their eyes? 🙂
This video is also talking about the possibility of a compromise in which the United States is left with the leadership of the Americas and Eurasia is separate under the influence of China, perhaps after Trump visits with Xi. China would get Taiwan.
—–
Regarding what the video says:
The war is represents a change in power. (In my post, America losing its hegemony.)
The country that controls the world is the one that opens the Straight of Hormuz. Geography is why Iran is powerful. It can stops boats leaving the Persian Gulf, damaging the world economy. It is extremely easy to prevent commerce but it difficult to keep it open.
At 12;37, Carson says, “The nation that restores order is the one with power.”
13:32 February 28th was the day when the rest of world discovered that America was unable to restore order. That was a shock. America really no longer had power.
14:15 The countries around the Gulf found out the hard way when Iran started attacking them. . . The destruction has been profound.
15:30 these countries have been the largest investors in the United States, literally trillions.
. . .The loss of this infrastructure is a huge loss for these countries.
18.23 The President said last night that when this war is over, Iran will still be in charge.
18:32 He said the straight is going to reopen because Iran will need the money from oil sales.
18:41 That’s another way of saying some kind of Iranian regime that we didn’t choose is going to be in power when this is all over.
18:50 So that that statement alone is hugely significant for the rest of the world. The president of the United States
18:57 just said we’re not going to be in charge of who runs Iran when this war ends.
[Who can restore order?]
23:40 Well, practically speaking, there’s really only one country on earth with the power, not necessarily the military power, but maybe the power to open the
23:49 Gulf, to open the straight at the eastern end of the Gulf, let all that oil and gas out. And that of course is China.
23:59 China is who the president is speaking to. And by the way, the US president was supposed to be in China this month,
24:06 April, meeting with the Chinese president, Xi, and that’s been delayed until next month and we’ll see if that
24:14 actually happens. But at the center of the conversation will be this question.
24:18 So how exactly would China open the straight of Hormuz? Well, probably not with aircraft carriers.
24:50 But it’s not its military that gives China the power to do this. It’s its economic relationships of course.
24:59 So, China is the largest trading partner with every Gulf country
25:06 and with Iran. In fact, China is one of the only countries that has any kind of
25:14 meaningful relationship with Iran at this point. China and Russia, but particularly China. So, China could conceivably bankrupt Iran if it wanted,
The question though is when. So from the Chinese perspective, what’s the hurry?
26:38 China will be hurt economically by the closure if it continues, but so will the United States, but maybe more
26:46 critically, so will American allies in Asia. So if you’re China, you’re very
26:53 focused on the countries right around you that aren’t fully under your control. Why wouldn’t you be? Every great power is concerned first and
27:02 foremost about its region. Can I control the countries right around me? And in China’s case, you have Taiwan, you also
27:10 have Japan, you have South Korea, and you have Philippines.
27:14 So you’ve got four big countries that are not directly controlled by China,
27:182 but they’re in Asia, and they were all to one extent or another closely allied with the United States and benefit from
27:26 some kind of defense guarantee, mostly implied. And so if you weaken those countries,
27:35 all of whom are totally dependent on Middle Eastern energy and you weaken the United States by refusing to come to its aid,
27:46 the Gulf stays closed.
27:50 But from a Chinese
28:37 perspective which is longitudinal tend to think in terms of like years not just quarterly reporting periods.
28:56 Taiwan, the one every think tank in Washington is always telling us is coming any minute, when you could just
29:03 send a really clear message to the Taiwanese government that reunification with China is inevitable. And let’s do this the easy way, the non- messy way.
29:13 Let’s do here what we did in Hong Kong.
29:15 Let’s just bring all the provinces home without having to kill anybody.
29:20 And by the way, you have no choice because the country you thought was going to protect you clearly isn’t. Can’t even protect Qatar.
31:10 But at some point it will become clear that the United States couldn’t do the thing that great powers do which is keep commerce going.
31:18 And so it doesn’t mean the United States is not a great power. It just means it’s not as great as maybe some people imagined it was. It’s not as powerful as our leaders told us it was and in some cases actually thought it was.
31:293 And what that really means is the unipolar moment is over.
32:25 but it’s definitely going to be a global reshuffleling.
32:30 And it revolves around the question of resources.
32:35 It revolves around what President Trump to his credit understands, which is ultimately power derives from prosperity. Rich countries are powerful.
32:46 Rich countries get to build powerful militaries to express and in rare occasions exert their power.
32:54 But wealth comes from resources.
36:32
So actually if the world cleaves in two, if
36:39 China fully controls the east or mostly controls the east and we mostly control
36:47 the west, probably something we could live with. probably not a terrible thing for the United States, but it would
36:56 require a totally different way of thinking. It would require the US government, the
37:05 Pentagon, the State Department, the the White House,
37:09 all the academics that feeded information and deep thoughts about what the empire should be. would require all of them to change the way they think
37:18 about the United States and its place in the world.
thanks for the summary.
all-out Capitalist China has been rising for many years.
many of us are expecting China to work with Iran to improve the flow of resources through the strait, and the other Asian countries may see this and appreciate the indirect help from China, which could even become direct help.
the resource flow looks guaranteed to never return to its previous high flow.
China will help to maximize the new partial flow.
In a two faced world the US would have to for the first time think about helping its half prosper. For 250 years the US has been about killing, damaging any that are not completely subservient. Hard to picture the Rand corporation be constructive.
In the US we have a department of Energy. Its job is not to develop new energy source for the US and the world. Its job is the design of nuclear weapons, the production of nuclear weapons. Might be time for new thinking.
For a long time, Gail Tverberg has written from a point of view that seems to cherish disaster for America and the world. This is very clear in this blog posting where she wants to lay blame upon President Trump while calling for declining standards of living, reduced populations, and general energy insecurity-driven hardship as the “winning case” on what to do.
Achieving energy security has been a dominate theme of human civilization for thousands of years. Nothing new in that sense, so the fundamental focus of this blog on worldwide energy security is nothing new. Yet, civilization has persisted and improved across those thousands of years, an accomplishment that did not arise from a defeatist attitude such as is being touted here.
I agree that we are in a period of transition but we are also in a period of rapidly advancing technological capabilities that will enable this transition to be “weathered”, emerging with a global permanent energy security based on practicable sources of sustainable energy. It is apparent that Ms. Tverberg does not have any answers in this regard—only more doom and gloom.
“… emerging with a global permanent energy security based on practicable sources of sustainable energy.”
you obviously have very little understanding of surplus energy, so I suggest you read and study https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ for a looooooooooooooong time and get yourself up to speed.
Industrial Civilization requires massive daily flows of surplus energy, and this flow comes almost entirely from FF.
any “renewable” gadgets are all manufactured every step of the way by the energy within FF, and these gadgets must be replaced as they wear out.
there is no such thing as enough “sustainable energy” to run IC.
with the irreversible decline of surplus energy beginning this decade, there MUST be irreversible degrowth of the world economy.
degrowth is here, IC cannot last, it must end, probably late this century.
it’s nothing to worry about.
you are obviously a maganut…
with that fact established, may i offer you a little reality? (you are welvome here btw—we need opposing views and flat earthers)
For 000s of years humankind, as you say used forms of ‘technology’ for advancement, unfortunately almost all of that ‘technology’ relied on the speed of tree growth, with a little iron added here and there whenever possible….
civilisation was static until then—we did not improve at all, the common man lived in utter squalor…..
we did not progress beyond this until iron became cheap and plentiful….
with cheap iron we dug deep oilwells and coalmines…
with cheap oil and coal, technology could progress….
and here we touch on the kind of reality that is anathema to maganuts.
Cheap surplus energy allows you to have sophisticated technology—
unfortunately this does NOT work in reverse…. no form of technology can deliver cheap energy…..EVER.
It can deliver MORE energy, yes, but that energy resource is finite….it is not the same thing….
Do you ever take notice of Donnie’s actions?—every business he’s started has crashed.
Now he’s taking the world down with him to satisfy he superinflated ego.
if you care to hang arounf OFW, you might learn to think for yourself, and stop following the herd just because theyve got red hats on……
‘until it is possible to mine the minerals, build the components, manufacture and transport the technologies without the use of fossil fuels at any stage in the process, then there is no such thing as “renewable energy” ‘ ?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2023/07/19/our-predicament-re-stated/?fbclid=IwAR3VlY4z4EV1kM6nTSv2FjmBAmvCEGjqqhiwuc1zQtSn3sIcGDGdqiNaN0Q
Our Predicament Re-stated
“The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result.”
Youch!
“17 For the scripture saith unto Pharaoh, Even for this same purpose have I raised thee up, that I might shew my power in thee, and that my name might be declared throughout all the earth.
18 Therefore hath he mercy on whom he will have mercy, and whom he will he hardeneth.
21 Hath not the potter power over the clay, of the same lump to make one vessel unto honour, and another unto dishonour?
22 What if God, willing to shew his wrath, and to make his power known, endured with much longsuffering the vessels of wrath fitted to destruction:”
That Pharaoh Trump, that dishonourable pot, hardened, and fitted unto destruction: that physical, dissipative dynamics might be demonstrated through his defeat in the illegal war against Iran.
“20 Nay but, O man, who art thou that repliest against God? Shall the thing formed say to him that formed it, Why hast thou made me thus?”
Trump needs to shut his mouth for once in his life: he is no more than a puffed up patsy for the laws of physics.
Great comment Mirror!
hard to say with obviously seenile retardedTrump, but to me it appears probable that he will have the USevilEmpire do some more very severe atttacks within the next couple of weeks.
after that, hopefully this small regional war will be over.
for sure retardedTrump will be gone within less than 3 swift years.
UK and the rest of Europe might possibly get through these years without collapsing.
IC will continue on with its inevitable irreversible degrowth.
Looking like you’re back to your old self again davidina. Good deal.
Let’s stick with Great Satan. Yes, a month more of bombing Iranian society back to the stone age for the benefit of Greater Israel. Ideally this would include destroying all power plants, all water plants, all steel production. Leading to a 90% die-off and no advanced tech in the next 200 years.
Interesting, but eventually meaningless question. I remember comparisons from the days of Peak Oil (what, from ~15 years ago or even earlier than that?), showing rail transport being the cheapest by at least 10x (after initial infrastructure investment).
Look into electrified light rail – efficient public transportation technology that many smaller US cities utilized before late 1950s, when automobile/oil mafia lured Boomer’s parents into “happy motoring” and wasteful suburbian living. Light rail must had been very economic, if almost everybody was running it.
Soviets heavily relied on fully electrified light rail (“tramways”) in their largest cities (even those with proper Metro/Subway systems), working in parallel with regular trains and having both types of stations near each other for easy connectivity (still widely available and used in Eastern Europe, for example).
ICE (and even diesel engines – in the absence of diesel fuel) are ridiculously wasteful (what, ~30% efficiency with electronic guidance from overexpensive and soon simply unavailable onboard computers?), individual automobiles upkeep is unbearably uneconomic, and the biggest – those well-paved asphalt roads of the Developed World. Asphalt roads are expensive to maintain and they are readily/easily damaged by lack of regular upkeep, elements (in temperate climate zones) and heavy machinery (military and/or agricultural one). Concrete is out of the question as well, I think – too energy-intense and otherwise expensive to lay.
Some kind of rails are the future, in worst case – human-powered kind 💪
Small, well inter-connected tribes (Dunbar?) or blood-related family based “National Socialist” agricultural farms will be coming too – poor (in every possible sense of the word) inhabitants/slaves will be on the notice for the upcoming (or lost) pre-planned harvest and will be summarily taken (by the same railway) to the showers in the case of lost/self-consumed harvest. Remaining kids/babies will be promptly “redistributed” to the nearby, readily rail-connected, but still populated and functioning “family owned farms”. No any long-distance travel in HOV lanes on well-paved highways will be necessary/allowed. There will be no highways – but only (as well as physically possible) kept railways, like those leading to/from Auschwitz-Birkenau free-will agricultural settlement.
by mid century wherever there remains IC there will be more rail.
meanwhile, ocean shipping is by far cheapest per mile, so there are probably decades of ocean shipping ahead even as IC proceeds with irreversible degrowth.
Yes, thanks for sort of re-opening the topic.
It was more concerned with the existing regional train services going out of / among / around cities, the usual model is a real train set ( heavier than city tram ) of ~120 passenger capacity and powered by ~600-800kWp diesel.. I was just wondering about the ticket price comparison all around the world before further diesel price volatility spike. And as Re-ante kindly answered, the Oregon (US / PCFNW) pricing for such services is roughly the same, i.e. ten+ bucks per ~100km/55mi.. distance.
Then I just briefly contrasted the price vs ” HOV ” like ICE car say w. 3-5x people on board, and obviously it’s way cheaper ( at the consumer point / no the whole infrastructure chain ) .. Such arrangement for several people commuting regularly towards same general vector via single car is not uncommon, sharing the petrol expense..
It depends on the locale, as we know, especially those dense Asian metro areas are way overcrowded on such trains vs. low-ish occupancy in EUR/US .. for the moment. As usually the same area is serviced both by highways / roads as well as trains ( up to this moment).
In terms of the outlook into the future it depends on the collapse profile / timing, the batt chem for TSLA trucks and similar is already there – rolling then for decades ( not fantasy ), so it could be deployed and avoid a lot of diesel consumption.
Very well said Gail. I have been thinking, although not nearly as systematically along the same lines, while also thinking about the serious dislocation and hardship and readjustment that will result from the end of US economic hegemony. It is truly ironic that Trump appears ready to bring about the end of the US’s conventional “greatness” while accidentally contributing toward a possible much healthier and more peaceful global culture of many geographical centers.
I’m glad you like this analysis. It is quite different from what others are saying.
Thanks for the new post.
It might be better for the world, but not for USA and Israel.
I don’t know too much about Israel to comment on it, but USA will look like Germany in 1919 after Woody Wilson cheated it the victory it had won.
The loss of Dollar as the reserve currency means Americans cannot enjoy the lower prices possible because of the dollar being the reserve currency.
Americans will have to adapt the lifestyle of the Europeans.
As of now, the price of gasoline in London is about 172 pences/liter. For ease of calculation I will say a gallon is 4 liters; that is about $9/gallon.
At Paris it is 2.04 euro/liter, or about $10/gallon. Frankfurt, and other European capitals, should be similar.
At USA, in general, it is $4.08/gallon.
Go figure.
Plus, the loss of prestige and power will make US outfits, many of them multinational and can ditch USA any time , to have a harder time doing business.
Any horror in USA will quickly spread into at least Canada and Mexico, destabilizing these countries as well.
Given the stranglehold of USA on the world, it might not be as great as some people might imagine.
Can you compare average/routine driving distances in USA and London or Paris?
Not to pollute the board (as MG frequently does with his irrelevant and incoherent Rromanian nonsense), in another recent post of yours here your seem to claim for Soviets took and occupied Helsinki during the Winter War – I believe that statement to be completely false. Any comments? Thanks for your regular posts – I read and follow them attentively, almost as much as I read and absorb the original posts by the Blog Owner here.
During the Finnish civik war pro Soviet reds took Helsinki and Viipuri
Viipuri was later taken by USSR in 1944, which still holds it
I did not say USSR tool Helsinki
There are many people who do not post or write on the internet. And they live without it. They could have no idea about many things without the functioning internet and still they survive.
Momentarily US will either blend into ( then if not feasible just sell int. ) that newly ” acquired – liberated ” VEZ oils..
In terms of US gas prices, yes for their liking NOT nice price at all, BUT given cont. hybridizing fleet and less diesel among %personal carz – it’s still bearable..
VZ oils are just drops in a bucket
Higher gas proce means higher price for everythinh
Your title is brave!
In reality USA will look like Russia during the Revolution
The commies did take control of Petrograd and Moscow, the two major cities, rather quickly and since a large proportion of Russian population and industry were there it was much favorable for them to win against the Whites who were disorganized and did not hold large population centers.
That is not possible in USA. The so-called MAGA regions control the industry, and the major cities are too diverse and too divided. Somewhat like the Finnish civil war when the reds controlled the capital Helsinki and the second city Viipuri (which was taken by Soviets after WW2) but the whites controlled the rest.
Different states will go their own way, Texas will declare independence again, and so forth.
I first wrote my thoughts, in a fairly disorganized form, down in a draft post, which I called, “A Different View of the Iran war.”
I gave the rough draft to Claude AI, along with some prior posts of mine.
I asked if Claude had an idea for a better title.
It came up with a list of 9 titles. I chose this one. Perhaps it is too brave, but it can be difficult to get attention. I look at my old posts, and the titles seem pretty much like one another.
After I chose this title, Claude had ideas of what did or did not belong in the introduction. It came up with the first sentence in the introduction, as well.
So, with Claude’s help, I started moving things around. It asked questions I hadn’t thought about? For example, why didn’t I give equal weight to oil and LNG. I decided maybe I needed to explain a bit about that. It suggested I not spend too much space on LNG, if it was much smaller.
Claude also had ideas regarding which of my thoughts belonged in the conclusion.
I ended up moving text and exhibits around. It corrected my errors in numbering in the text.
So Claude didn’t write any of this. I mostly suggested ways to better organize what I wrote. It seemed not to care too much if my language was sort of colloquial, and there were places where what I said didn’t quite make sense.
Real life editors helped a great deal, after Claude was done with its part.
Perhaps ask Claude what the future might look like with industry moved to space. After almost fifty years of doom it is a bit tedious waiting for it. Recall Ehrlich thought we would all die in the seventies, he still has tenure I would guess.
Dennis L.
Zerohedge is reporting
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/moscow-asks-us-ceasefire-bushehr-nuclear-plant-get-remaining-russian-staff-out
Russia is seeking approval from the US and Israel for a ceasefire for the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, RIA news agency reported Thursday. Airstrikes across the country have reportedly been on the uptick in the past some 48 hours.
Well over 500 Russian personnel were at the site prior to the US launching Operation Epic Fury, and the Bushehr complex has been hit at least three times by airstrikes, putting the complex and area at severe risk.
If a nuclear power plant in Iran is in bad shape, it would seem like that would put Israel’s nuclear infrastructure more at risk.
The Chinese are also getting involved trying to broker a peace deal. The underlying problem for the US is that China is trying to become the influential superpower taking over the reins from the US. The US politicians don’t have a clue that once China becomes the influential peace broker the World will turn to China and the US empire will become irrelevant as time goes on.
The world will move away form a Unipolar world dominated by the US and enter a new world order that will include multiple nations doing business with one another.
As a result the US empire will collapse and fragment because the empire gets its funding from the $USD. Xi Jinping earlier this year said he wants to replace the US dollar with the Renminbi as the world’s reserve currency.
The spent fuel pool is in the auxiliary building. Dry cask storage is also onsite. It’s a set-up.
I guess this is the standard procedure in most of the world’s civil-ian NPP sites. Basically, the freshly taken out spent fuel is stored next to the power plant in such a dedicated bldg. to cool it down a bit, only then in few yrs time it is moved to more temporary warehouse.. Apart from radioactive incident it’s likely connected to the basic physical mechanics of it as the bit cooled down pellets are then way easier / safer to be stored and hauled away vs. the ” swollen up ” fresh out of the reactor chamber..
Yes apparently Bushehr is on a grid-powered 8-year pool cooling regime and then moved to medium-term dry cask storage onsite. Talk of long-term storage in nearby mountain but no action. Simar to everywhere everywhere else.
You could be right, have no direct knowledge though, assumed wrongly in my post you are not aware about these several steps of on/near site cooling before proper long term storage far away ( uber-geostable mined pit ) – can’t be this coastal area by definition ( tsunamis etc ).
PS the plant has been supposedly operational since Q3/2011 – so that’s less than 2x 8yrs cycles
Gail, thanks for the new article.
In terms of Bushehr the extent of damage is not clear, but most certainly it was pretty minimal and non-systemic ( threatening ) chiefly on the outskirts – otherwise the msm would pick it up. Apparently that industrial – complex is a vast gigantic areal – so that doesn’t mean the npp itself is in bad shape at all.. Obviously, the risk and danger into the future are real hence the effort to move RU-staffers out as soon as possible..
The nasty stuff is no doubt perfectly fine… for now. But my money is on it popping off before the Russians get out. Because it’s a set-up.
Interesting price/supply discussion. However your conclusion that life will be better if the US loses the war is unsupported by your expertise, or your asserted logic chain. It also fails to recognize the benefit of stabilizing the region by eliminating nuclear capabilities. Equally important, the suggestion that we need higher oil prices (a tax on everyone not invested in oil profits), instead of eliminating this diversion of assets, in unpersuasive. Unfortunately this looks like an academic attempt to tell the world it’s better off without Trump, which is contradicted by the many peace deals, and the ideal of a nuclear free world docussed on building economies instead of diverting money to war and oil profits.
There’s a lot of confusion out there, including with Trump, that the US has lots of oil to sell to the world.
We do not. We’re a net importer of crude (~+3 Mb/d). The EIA reports that fact in great detail every week.
The confusion stems from using the term “petroleum exports” which includes the bodacious amounts of natural gas liquids (NGL) that come from our wet gas plays. That stuff isn’t “oil” and it is exported because it’s wildly overproduced compared to our needs.
Yes, the US is a net exporter of “petroleum,” but it’s also a net IMPORTER of crude oil. In other words, the US has none to sell.
There’s more complexity to why we export 3M b/d of crude (it’s the wrong kind for our refineries) and also import 6.4 M b/d of crude (which is the right kind).
https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/2039523704061772239/photo/1
Good points!
By the way, I think I cut off comments on my previous post, to reduce confusion.
hey x-, here’s another Inverted Perestroika echo of the original Perestroika. Gabbard topped out at Lieutenant Colonel. Putin topped out at Lieutenant Colonel. Gabbard ‘skipped steps’ all the way up to DNI. Putin ‘skipped steps’ all the way up to becoming the head of the FSB. The rest is history.
My take is that Bondi was just fired because The Trump admin has caught wind of a faction on the move that’s centered around the DNI office and Bondi got thrown under the bus because she over saw the Trump-related Epstein files suppression. Last week I perused the available photo and video evidence of the last Cabinet meeting and did not see Gabbard present. AI could not confirm nor deny. Perhaps that tipped off the administration, who knows. It also just came out in in the MSM today that Trump has been polling staffers on whether to fire Gabbard….
If there is going to be a coup then the wheels must be turning already because time-wise I feel like we must be more than halfway through the Big Nuclear Scare by now.
Appreciate your analogies/references. I’m not political and do not follow politics, but if TG and those pulling her strings can rebuild/reorganize the local NA economy (I do not count MX and CA as separate entities for convenience…) for (much) better efficiency and sustainability (in a good, not the crazy-ecohead sense), then I’m all for it. Never trusted Bondi, but she seemed to me like doing devoted, dedicated job suppressing what she was told to supress…
I also hope, that/if your predictions are true, that this epochal political transition (here in the USA) will be as smooth and bloodless, as that one of Yeltsin->Putin back in 1999/2000.
Well, that’s shocking analogy there Re-ante, I’ve not looked at that before.. interesting.
But you also have to consider the prequel for these comparative histories, if I recall it correctly, Vlad was for yrs dispatched-stationed inside DDR (1980s) and was before-then trained as focused specialist on the German realm agenda.. Also, there was that important influence of the various proto – oligarchs of the early post Soviet mid 1990s which supported the anti Yeltsin coup ( for $angle ). And as we learned later several rounds of fights between various oligarchic networks / clans took place there – while the FSB nationalist angle kept strengthening bit by bit and then at some point took over govs ~completely (mid early 2000s ?)..
While I don’t see similar longer path dependency with Tulsi – but perhaps it doesn’t matter for the US setting that much.. as the whole process could be understandably way different in steps and players involved .. and also delayed in timing ( next moves ahead ) ..
Just thumbnail sketches on my part but relevant I think. Seems to me that having ready in waiting useful oligarchs help get Russia back on its feet and then subsuming the oligarchs ASAP is a highly rational and efficient way to go about transitioning a highly industrialized country from collapsed communism to integrated capitalism. The (inverse) mirror of that is the American ‘oligarchy’ that everyone talks about right now. Oligarchy being industrial feudalism and industrial feudalism being both pre- consumer capitalism and post- consumer capitalism unstable transitional swing states.
It may be that the second Trump administration is turning into a rerun of The Apprentice. The boss hires attractive long-haired women—in this case with names ending in “I”: Kristi, (Pam) Bondi, Tulsi—uses and abuses them month after month, and then tells them “You’re fired!”
We don’t know what goes on inside the Trump White House, but as for the Apprentice, Google AI tells us:
Based on accounts from more than 20 former crew members, editors, and contestants interviewed by the Associated Press, Donald Trump’s treatment of staff and contestants on The Apprentice was frequently described as inappropriate, unprofessional, and demeaning, particularly toward women. While some participants reported positive, professional experiences, many others described a set culture marked by sexist comments, sexualized behavior, and a preoccupation with his own image.
Thanks Ravi.
It is a battle between — bits & bytes vs atoms and molecules . So far the atoms and molecules are winning .
When processing information, it is still a whole lot faster and a whole lot cheaper energy-wise to move electrons around than to move molecules around. This is the main reason why people went to such a lot of trouble to develop and deploy the infrastructure that makes it possible to do so many things “virtually”.
DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141 A BARREL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 .
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2039745455139999799
Please read the comments section to understand what dated Brent means .
Time Is short. We are super fucked
According to Grok,
Dated Brent is the benchmark price for physical (spot) cargoes of North Sea crude oil—mainly Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll blends.
Unlike futures, it’s for oil with an assigned loading date (usually 10-25 days ahead), making it the key reference for real-world trading and global oil pricing.
Dated Brent is the price of an oil contract with a tanker and a near-term shipping date attached to it. The claim on the oil can still be bought and sold up until it becomes impractical to do so. Obviously dated Brent is getting bid up today because businesses with deep pockets see TEOTWAWKI following Trump’s catastrophic speech that unofficially represents the point of no return. Ditto WTI. Looking forward to seeing WTI test my $125 for 72hrs call. That’s three business days! Not feeling terribly confident lol.