As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
Putin’s envoy Dmitriev: A Catastrophic Oil Shortage Is Near; Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices by $20
“Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of Russia for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, has warned that the world will face a catastrophic oil shortage.
Dmitriev wrote on X platform on Monday, April 6, that for the first time in history Saudi Arabia has set its oil price $20 per barrel above the regional benchmark, and that this move could lead to a severe energy crisis.
According to reports from Reuters and the Associated Press, Saudi Aramco has set its May oil prices for Asia at $19.5 above the regional benchmark rate.
Experts warn that rising oil prices will not only put pressure on the global economy, but could also lead to a severe shortage in the energy market, with significant impacts on oil-importing countries.
https://8am.media/eng/dmitriev-saudi-oil-shortage/
Fuel supply shortages hit one in five petrol stations in France
“Fuel shortages are affecting nearly one in five petrol stations across France as surging global oil prices stoke pressure at the pump. The government blames logistical strains and heavy demand at discounted outlets but frustration is mounting, with road blockades hinting at wider unease while households and businesses brace for rising energy costs.”
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260407-fuel-supply-shortages-hit-one-in-five-petrol-stations-in-france?utm_slink=go.france24.com%2FQgr&utm_term=FRANCE24&utm_campaign=twitter&utm_source=nonli&utm_medium=social
It seems like Trump is preparing the world for Iran to be nuked tonight when said in a Truth Social post that a whole civilization will die tonight!
if you read up on christian Nationalism, as sought after by Theil and Hegseth, it requires current society to be reduced to zero, so jesus h can return and start over, usinng aforesaid red hatters as his instruments…..
Sounds nuts??
I agree
But read it up for yourself.
They are using the useful idiot to do their dirty work
Do you have links? I can almost believe this.
Tucker Carlson has spoken out on this that there are many Christian Zionists who are wanting to destroy as much of the world in order for Jesus to return. They use the scripture, “unless those days were cut short, no flesh would be saves”.
They also point to the interpretation of Gog and Magog in Revelation that the war to end all wars would be fought in the Middle East to bring about the return of Christ.
It’s totally believable. Caitlin Johnstone wrote an article about Mike Huckabee. Both political parties in Washington have these crazed lunatics.
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/mike-huckabee-is-a-deranged-armageddon
Adolph Trump is about to unleash operation Trumperossa. Hard to believe it could happen. Just preying for a TACO.
This is what Donald Trump tweeted:
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran.”
Seems like bombs had been dropped before the deadline. Seems like TACO is off the table. Seems like civilization is just weeks away.we just chopped the last tree on Easter island
Easter Island’s trees. New evidence is that introduced rats ate all the seeds needed to replenish the forests, not the natives chopping down trees. New thinking is that the statues were “walked’ upright with guy wire rope stabilization like penguins from the quarry to the coast. The trees were not cut down to act as rollers to transport. In a way, humans are doing it (like voracious rats) on a grander scale worldwide consuming natural resources- from minerals to water to topsoil. Although in fairness to rats they multiply in the midst of waste disposed by humans, which is why you never put meat in your compost. It will attract rats.
Does it really matter?
Yes, your junk analogy matters regardless of current events.
TACO Tuesday .
” BREAKING: US President Donald Trump may delay the attack on Iran if he sees real signs of a deal on the horizon and he alone holds the decision to begin destroying Iran’s infrastructure at 8pm EST on Tuesday, reports US media, citing a US official. ”
https://x.com/AJENews/status/2041362534046068912/photo/1
Negotiations don’t exist because Iran has emphatically said so. There’s no reason to negotiate with the US when they are committing war crimes and have been bombed twice during so called negotiations.
I believe them more than a deranged lunatic who has committed war crimes and drops F-Bombs on another sovereign country on Easter Sunday.
French just struck a side deal exchanging two arrested own people in Iran for one imprisoned Iranian placed within FR.. If nothing perhaps helps keep some of the comm. channels open. Mind you, it’s a global village ( up to now ), as Jeep is using FR turbo-diesel engines ( license only or parts? ) spiced with JAP power-split hybrids ( direct parts bin ) ..
It is too late the system is broken; it is a mathematical impossibility to keep it going. I used to stress about not having enough money to retire, now I don’t have to worry about that. Where is investor guy with his cape! Or David with his BAU baby!
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/es-demasiado-tarde
Nathanial: I was surprised he went that far.
Here is some more on dated brent.
https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/the-actual-price-for-crude-oil-in
On “..not enough money to retire.. ” if you are close to the Spanish speaking world – you might have noticed – that this culture is NOT that keen on ~higher altitude life-style ( yes apart from the indigenous and mixed pop etc. ) – hence there is you niche to look for the more ~whities or even oddball indigenous prevailing settlements not liking altitude: [ low pop ] in that area ( with cheap/~free land ) ..
PS obviously specific considerations and constraints at that as always
George Galloway was in fine form on Easter Sunday, lampooning both Trump and Starmer, and reporting on the state of democracy in the US and the UK.
George also explores the implications of Trump’s war crimes (from around 12 minutes on), although he shouts louder than Trump as he does it.
Is this a precursor to the deranged lunatic known as Donald J Epstein going nuclear on Iran today? The MAGA crowd and ZI.onists must be very proud,
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/president-donald-trumps-emergency-command-aircraft-doomsday-plane-spotted-above-this-us-base-as-e-4b-flight-triggers-war-speculation/articleshow/130063837.cms
MEHR: EXPLOSIONS HEARD ON KHARG ISLAND #OOTT
https://x.com/Amena__Bakr/status/2041465427147260018
Someone commented on this tweet:
“Even if Kharg Island were targeted or disrupted, Iran’s oil exports would not be fully cut off, as alternative routes like Jask, ship-to-ship transfers, and a shadow tanker network can sustain reduced flows. This reinforces that while Kharg is critical, Iran’s real strategic leverage lies in its ability to keep exports moving and threaten broader disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Export orders have declined to around 60%’
Industry sources said that the transit time for exports to key markets such as Europe and the US has increased from around 23 days to nearly 35-40 days. Since ships are avoiding the Suez Canal and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, an industry estimate pegs transit delay of up to 14 days and fuel cost increases of 20%. Similarly, freight cost has also spiked up to 750%–900% on some routes between India and West Asia.
Peshawari of Meenu Creation said the shipping crisis has forced them to use air freight, which has significantly increased the cost per garment. “While air freight has almost doubled, the cost of using sea freight has gone up from Rs 7 per garment using sea route to Rs 170 per garment using air freight. On top of that, we continue to face container shortages,” he said.
https://indianexpress.com/article/business/war-in-gulf-shoe-soles-to-apparels-input-costs-surge-labour-shortage-hurting-now-10622732/
“Slovakia holds three records. All of them are now holding back the economy
Highest energy dependence, dominant exports, smallest domestic market. Among the V4 countries, the Slovak economy is the most vulnerable
The energy crisis shows that the same shock has different consequences in different economies. Some countries absorb it like a wave, while others amplify it. Slovakia belongs to the latter group.
A small, open, and export-oriented economy functions effectively in stable times. In times of global upheaval, however, it turns into an amplifier of problems.
The differences are most evident when comparing the Visegrad Four countries. At first glance, it is a similar region. Slovakia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland are all EU members with an industrial base. Upon closer examination, however, it becomes clear that these are four distinct economic models.
“Structural headwinds are weighing on medium-term growth and raising questions about Slovakia’s ability to catch up to the living standards of advanced EU countries,” the IMF noted this year.”
https://www.trend.sk/ekonomika/slovensko-ma-tri-prvenstva-vsetky-teraz-brzdia-ekonomiku?itm_modul=react_trend_topbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=1&itm_cb_position=top_main_1
Is Eastern Slovakia headed for the same fate as Sicily? Real estate there is losing value
In fifteen years, three out of ten prospective homebuyers will disappear from the market.
https://www.sme.sk/index/c/caka-vychod-slovenska-osud-sicilie-nehnutelnosti-tam-stracaju-hodnotu
Slovaks are aging extremely quickly, but inherited apartments won’t save us. Where will prices rise, and where will housing lose value?
At a time when the housing crisis is reaching its peak, few people probably realize what its consequences will be in ten or twenty years. At first glance, it might seem that the declining population will solve the problem. However, Slovakia is facing rapid aging—there are already more seniors than children today, and even though hundreds of thousands of residents will be lost, the demand for housing will not decline. Nor will the next generation of young people see improved housing affordability. How will we live in ten or 15 years?
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/796925-slovaci-starnu-extremne-rychlo-no-zdedene-byty-nas-nespasia-kde-budu-ceny-rast-a-kde-byvanie-strati-hodnotu/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_3clanok_box
I am still wondering where are the affordable energy prices, well-paid jobs and low food prices calculated into these projections?
Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency: “The current crisis is more serious than those of 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined”
(In French)
https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/fatih-birol-directeur-de-l-agence-internationale-de-l-energie-la-crise-actuelle-est-plus-grave-que-celles-de-1973-1979-et-2022-reunies-20260406
looks like i skipped to EV just in time
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/06/secondhand-ev-prices-rise-fuel-crisis-australia
Hurrah for Norm late but sincere conversion! The gods rewarded him with continued motoring.
Norm, good for you.
But the winners are the Australian folks down there, they tend to enjoy the cheapest carz on the planet, because of ~short distance from Asia, and some tax/duty favorable regime on top of it. Basically, all the top EV/PHEV models out of JAP/CHN/SKorea manufs there priced -(40-30)% bellow the level in the EU..
Just in time for electricity rationing that strictly forbids EV charging. The new slogan will be TOASTERS OVER TOFFS.
Trololol, yes ” gridwize ” this will come about eventually as well..
The point about EVs charging is that it’s multi-modal as you ( diy salvage ) can transform to electricity almost anything from sun to wind, waves, hydro, coal, wood, dung, trash, gravity pull, animal power, h. slaves, ..
Yes, it’s perhaps futile long-term in collapse proper scenarios, but as long as the spare parts are around ( next ~2-3decades ) why not..
lol it had crossed my mind too reante
so i got round that by buying an excercise bike, linking it to a dynamo, linking the dynamo to the car,, then pedalling until my car is fully charged….
i’m amazed no one else has thought of that
Good satire Norm.
A 26-year-old dental student in Connecticut died in an intensive care unit that was overseen by a remote “tele-health” doctor who pronounced him dead on a video screen.
https://x.com/typocatCAv2/status/2041238724022063202
That will be the fate of those who cannot afford private doctors
I note that Greater Israel includes Eastern Egypt, Northern Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. With Saudi infrastructure about to be obliterated and the other suffering famine next year, the conquest of all this territory might be fairly painless. It is hard for me not to think this was all planned.
” The world looks like it’s overflowing with oil, but prices don’t wait for all 2 billion barrels of global inventory to vanish before they spike. Every single time oil crossed $100/bbl, it was the same story.
Take the US as the prime example. Right now, US commercial crude inventory is sitting around 440 million barrels, but that number physically cannot drop below 280–300 million.
You might say, “What the hell are you talking about? Just draw it down, you idiot lol.” But let’s look a bit closer.
That “Commercial MOI” I mentioned stands for Minimum Operating Inventory. This isn’t oil sitting in a refinery tank or a hub ready to be used instantly. ”
Please read this . Very well explained .
https://x.com/CRUDEOIL231/status/2041252606308413933
If Ghawar burns, it is curtains for civilization
Back to Napoleon when a person moved no faster than a horse
Napoleon took 48 days to travel from Moscow to Kaunas
Mathias Rust took 6 hrs to fly from Helsinki to Moscow
People in USA could keep some semblance of BAU for some time but it won’t be long
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/04/07/demand-destruction-is-the-only-way-to-restore-balance-in-the-oil-mkt.html
Financial media now slowly picking up real experts from inside oil business talking about the supply problems instead of the usual BAU types … How long for it to make front-pages? And with paper oil market 50 times the size of physical how long can the financial system hold up?
“Key Saudi oil hub comes under attack, Americans injured in Kuwait”
https://www.rt.com/news/637446-us-israeli-iran-intel-chief/
Excess refinery capacity hit. So far so good for the Big Nuclear Scare. Iran ‘keeping their word’ about a preemptive Saudi attack today.
If Ghawar is bombed, about half of the people here won’t be around 12 months from now
Gail wrote somewhere in this post or the last post about Deagel being too early when it comes to population reduction listed by countries.
I would like to add that Deagel was “not early”. It was the fact the vaccine did not work as intended.
That makes two peak oilers here today who have reminded us of how severely traumatized they still are by the plandemic that the Iran war has more to do with nefarious, accelerationist Elites than it has to do with peak oil. Can we get a third before the night’s out? Anybody? Who else wants to retreat into a witch hunt when the gravy train ends and the going gets tough?
Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational battle station cum vaccine manufacturing facility. Ha ha ha!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7-tskP0OzI
Hang on, what’s this?
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/biontech-to-wind-up-singapore-vaccine-manufacturing-plant-in-early-2027
Exactly dude. The BNS is a fuckin parody at this point. We’ve all seen this nauseatingly lover-the-top slapstick joo humor before. It’s not like the BNS isn’t just a macabre version of the most famous scene in Spaceballs for chrissakes. The Hand writes the collective unconscious into the civilization and overwrites ‘history’ onto it. It’s humiliation rituals all the way down. The Hand eats souls for breakfast lunch and dinner.
https://youtu.be/SpLgZFOkFLY
So this is on to Plan B?
lololol
first the ”plandemic” didnt work
now the vaccines didnt work as intended—
CTG—when are you going to give up on the daft idea that there was no ”plot” in the first place…
covid derived from a mutated virus… and that’s it—-
not a deranged chinaman wanting to kill off everybody in the world except chinese persons.
just as i told you and others back in 2021….
LMFAO and slapped my sides!
Catherine Austin Fitts warns that the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is a deliberate act of economic warfare, designed to fracture global food and energy networks and set the stage for worldwide “Covid 2.0” style lockdowns.
She says the ultimate aim is to destabilize the global economy, cripple supply chains, and push the world toward famine, all to advance “the control grid and depopulation” agenda.
“This is Covid 2.0.”
Fitts explained that the war is causing a shutdown of key ingredients for the majority of factories that produce fertilizer used in Europe. She continued to suggest the spring season for farmers could be disrupted by the fertilizer crisis.
Next, Fitts referred to a Goldman Sachs article discussing how the war’s effect on the Strait of Hormuz has harmed the world’s nitrogen fertilizer market and is putting critical crops such as corn and other grains in danger.
In addition to the Strait of Hormuz being crucial for agricultural trade, the financial expert said it is used to ship materials for microchip production and energy use.
“You’re talking about massive dislocation of the global economy, and if it goes on for long enough – we have Peru, Thailand and other countries talking about doing COVID-kind of shutdowns to save gas… But, you’re talking about intentionally shutting down the global economy and it didn’t start with Iran and it didn’t start with the United States, it started with the city of London,” said Fitts.
She noted that London “shut down the Strait with all their insurance company friends and reinsurance company friends,” saying Iran is supposedly helping London keep the Strait closed.
Podcast host Paul Buitink told Fitts that people across the world will suffer due to the war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, telling viewers, “There will be global disorder and chaos to a large extent.”
He also pointed out that in WWII the Japanese allegedly launched the Pearl Harbor attack because they were shut off from the global oil market, warning current financial hardships could cause nations to take desperate measures that “could lead to a much larger World War.”
“It’s a large gamble that the global elites are taking,” Buitink added. “They run the risk too. If we have a nuclear holocaust, then what’s in it for them?”
Responding with blunt honesty, Fitts said, “What’s in it for them is implementing the control grid and population control together… I can’t tell whether you’re looking at massive incompetence by the U.S. or if it’s a desire to shut down. This is COVID 2.0. This is a new excuse to shut down to preserve energy and food. I think the big problem here is famine.”
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/2040966877925486884
So Katherine Fitz is talking about our upcoming problems, but she is blaming the insurance in industry. At least she is talking about our upcoming problems. We have enough voices saying, “All is well; all is going according to plan.”
Well, she blames the insurance industry as a mere tool used in that ongoing programme to curtail / block Hormuz traffic with the follow up problems at hand..
From the systemic viewpoint that’s correct analysis, as to whether it was just over-prudential reaction or rather pre-planned wider plan is another topic/debate.
She’s not talking about our upcoming problems. She’s politicizing them because she’s a zombie herder.
Iran is worried that Trump will go nuclear in this 11 minute video.
That is the whole point of his over-the-top “Mad man” charade.
This is an interview with a very reasonable sounding man named Trita Parsi. He claims that Trump just said that the US had sent arms to the Kurds in January, perhaps to help make the anti-government protests more violent. This may be part of the reason so many were killed.
He is concerned about a possible nuclear strike.
Trump did say that quiet part out loud on camera, though he didn’t name the Kurds. He also said that the Kurds kept the guns for themselves and that they will be punished for it.
> BREAKING: Iran just bombed the Middle East’s LARGEST PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
Saudi Arabia’s SABIC is also the 4th largest petrochemical manufacturer in the world after DuPont, BASF & Sinopec
https://x.com/jacksonhinklle
Each revelation sounds worse than the previous one.