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History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
We no longer know how much oil Saudi Arabia is shipping. Counting the ships used to be the approach used.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/saudi-oil-fleet-increasingly-going-dark-due-houthi-blockade
Yemen’s maritime blockade on Saudi shipping has pushed the kingdom’s crude exports off the radar in the Red Sea, with tankers forced to turn off their tracking signals to avoid attack and every recent cargo loaded at Yanbu sailing “dark,” Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Saudi export volumes can no longer be independently verified as a result of the increased invisibility, with ship-tracking firms issuing conflicting estimates of the same shipments, figures the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and traders use to gauge world supply and forecast the market.
Three firms tracking the same week beginning August 3 reached three different conclusions.
Vortexa measured a modest decline at Yanbu, to 2.38 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.71 million, while Kpler reported a collapse to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million, and AXSMarine recorded a rise, to 850,000 bpd from about 420,000.
Vortexa analyst George Morris said no Yanbu cargo lifted last week had its Automatic Identification System (AIS) switched on.
“Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We’re not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System (AIS) on at the moment,” he said.
All data out of SoH is crap . Chris Wright says 9 mbpd is going via US escorts . BS . In the real world —
” Chinese crude inventories now steadily declining as physical barrels continue to get tighter amidst a historic crude oil undersupply!
Demand remains very strong = pressure is mounting on product inventories = refiners are running hard and continue consuming oil barrels. 🛢💰”
https://x.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/2088277797328564468/photo/1
For the [ doom / history ] aficionados, the very recent fires on the dramatic Croatian ( ClubMed ) coast are epic, it’s like from re-living tales of ancient Greek gods and super-heroes being smashed around willy-nilly.
Some close-by at the scene pics and footage show dense sparking dust just in front of lens-objectives during footage apart from the giga-blaze itself; and even molten pools of metal under / out of parked carz ( alloy engines and wheelz ). Heavy winds changing directions cited as the culprit plus the steep terrain situation..
Yes, it’s bordering on perverse voyeurism but here we come :
/ very fresh footage / : (h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WXmgT6jxGk
or explore on your own search on YT ” croatia omis “
So, apparently it’s over by this morning, they even had to assign ~only 4out of their 6x Canadair water-bombers, apart from the smaller agro-planes. Yet due to more extreme fires recently already planned to double the fleet. For comparison, Spain has got ~30x of them..
It’s a small medieval pirate-bay tucked inside steep rock-hills.
The proper antiquity stuff is situated more to the north along their coast.
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the pilots taking water over windy sea surface.. , well the dawn-morning was likely less windy vs yesterday at that point, but still lite-horror for sure
Hm, the fires jumped ( re- appeared ) northbound closer to islands near Zadar, that’s the full proper antiquity heritage area all the way up to Pula. Hopefully, they will bring it down as ” easily ” as in that small middle ages ” pirate enclave ” yesterday.
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Zadar traces its origins to the 9th century BC as a settlement of the Illyrian tribe of the Liburnians, called Iader. In 59 BC, it was renamed Iadera (Jadera) when it became a Roman municipium. In 48 BC, it became a Roman colony.
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vid of the new fires:
from the firefighter truck onboard cam:
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/IXRCAL1dqDc
The following article aligns with some statistics I have seen.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/despite-what-youve-heard-the-world-isnt-on-fire-60abc121
This was an Opinion article in the WSJ called, Despite What You’ve Heard, the World Isn’t on Fire
That Canadian smoke wasn’t pretty, but it was an outlier. Less land is burning than ever before.
Excerpts:
Ottawa’s own tally released July 9 showed 1.4 million hectares burned—less than a third of the 4.6 million hectares burned by the same date last year. Tucked into the “quick facts” of the government’s press release, beneath ministerial quotes about climate change driving ever more severe disasters, was the quiet admission that wildfire activity “remains below the five-year average.” That’s understating it: Satellite data weekly updated by the European Union confirm that Canada’s total burned area in 2026 by Aug. 5 was below the 2012-25 average the EU uses as a baseline.
Also,
Every continent on the globe is burning less—some much less—than usual. As of Aug. 5, Oceania has burned 14% less than its 2012-25 average and Europe has burned 35% less. Asia has a near-record low of burned area since 2012, clocking in at 41% below average. Africa is at a record low, with current burn at 44% below average.
Globally, we’re on trend for the lowest burn since the collection of that satellite data began in 2001, and likely the lowest since 1900. In the early 1900s, nearly 4% of global land burned annually, nearly double today’s rate. American annual burned area in the 1930s was about five times as large as its modern annual burned area.
Regarding prevention:
Canada has all but abandoned prescribed burning—deliberate, controlled fires that clear out the deadwood and undergrowth that turn ordinary fires into monsters. By one measure, the area in Canada treated with prescribed burns annually collapsed from more than 35,000 hectares in 1990 to 182 hectares in 2023, a 99.5% decline.
Media bias:
You wouldn’t know any of this from most media reports. Too much coverage cherry-picks smaller areas that happen to have lots of fire, ignoring everything else. With Canada this summer, scary pictures won out over compelling statistics. In Europe, wildfires in France and Spain repeatedly make headlines; that the Continent’s fires are significantly below average doesn’t.
Not wearing a seatbelt was the least of her problems. The young driver was driving under the influence of drugs; tests revealed as many as four different substances
The tests confirmed the presence of the narcotic substances amphetamine, methamphetamine, cocaine and ecstasy.
https://www.ta3.com/clanok/1066055/nezapnuty-pas-bol-najmensi-problem-mlada-vodicka-soferovala-pod-vplyvom-drog-testy-odhalili-az-styri-rozne-latky
Wiley Coyote hospitalized in serious conditions. Over-relying on ACME products was the least of his problems. In a sign of the times, he regularly overran the edge of cliffs and spent a few precious seconds surveying the scene instead of scrambling to safety.
Poor Wile E. I do feel sorry for him. He can never master his supposed place in the food chain. He should be called Wile L. That’s L for “Loser!” 🙁
We are moving forward…
The mortgage eats into the rent. The owner of an investment flat has to pay hundreds of euros extra
https://www.trend.sk/ekonomika/hypoteka-zhltne-najom-majitel-investicneho-bytu-musi-stovky-eur-doplacat?itm_modul=in_article_read_more_basic&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=article
The era of easy profits is over. Old investment strategies are no longer working
https://www.trend.sk/spravy/era-jednoduchych-ziskov-sa-skoncila-stare-investicne-vzorce-prestavaju-fungovat?itm_modul=react_trend_timelinebox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=4&itm_cb_position=top_sidebar_1
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/hormuz-shock-manifesting-itself-cracks-not-crude-jefferies-says
Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Wall Street Warns Of Refined-Products “Perfect Storm”
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities at Bank of America, warned clients in a note earlier titled “Diesel’s Perfect Summer Storm” that the industrial fuel is “materially disrupted in 3 of 4 major regions” around the world.
As we recently warned (see report: The crude reality of oil markets), supply disruptions are amplifying the squeeze on petroleum markets.
–Three of the world’s four major refining hubs remain impaired for one reason or another.
–First, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent military activity has reduced Middle East fuel exports, with the recent Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery being the latest example.
–Second, record Russian refining disruptions following Ukrainian strikes have removed significant volumes from the global diesel pool.
–Third, fearful of potential domestic shortages, China has yet to restart petroleum product exports to the Asia region. As such, Europe has increasingly relied on record US exports to fill the gap.
Yet those flows are drawing down already tight US inventories, the only major hub open for business, creating a global competition for fuel that is pushing diesel cracks back toward record seasonal highs.
– – – – –
Goldman’s commodities expert Daan Struyven told clients earlier today:
Since the Iran war began, we have viewed the Hormuz shock as more disruptive for refined products, especially diesel, than for crude.
Near-record prompt diesel margins have already triggered a strong supply response from refiners with spare capacity, including higher utilization and a shift in yields toward diesel. As a result, outright diesel shortages still look unlikely this year.
Struyven showed that global diesel exports are crashing.
Interesting that supposedly pre-existing spare capacity for diesel.. given us even more time.
Thanks
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PS according to his own ( likely posted decade+ ago profile ) – well, you could judge for yourself, evidently not very bright individual comparatively speaking.. but even these types could be right occasionally on complex matters..
“Expert Daan Struyven ”
Gender: Male
Industry: Education
Occupation: Phd candidate economics
Location: Tienen, Braban, Belgium
Introduction: I’m a PhD candidate at MIT in economics. I graduated at the ULB in 2009 as business engineer (Solvay Brussels School) and political scientist. Before starting my PhD in the US, I worked for the World Bank and for Econopolis.
Interests: India,economics,Indian economy,international economics, finance, Belgian politics and tennis.
Favorite movies: Forrest Gump,le Fabuleux Destin d’Amélie Poulain,Das Leben des Anderen,Lola rennt, Eyes Wide Shut, Lost in Translation.
Favorite music: Radiohead,Therapy and random Indian groups.
Favorite books: 1984(Orwell), Freedom and Capitalism (Friedman), Tirza(G runberg)
Ed Dowd, telling us that there is a definite upward bend in the US disabilities chart, taking place about the time that US mRNA vaccines against COVID were starting to be distributed. This is not government payments of on disability claims; it is a household survey estimate.
https://eddowdbeyondthenarrative.substack.com/p/us-disabilities-hit-an-all-time-high
US Disabilities Hit an All-Time High of 37 Million In July: UP 23% Since Feb 2021
The Signal No One Wants to See
This is the chart with both disabilities and US vaccine doses.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Ed-Dowd-Disabilities-and-US-Addministed-Doses-of-Vaccine.jpg
The article says:
The conclusion from the data is straightforward. The timing, the magnitude, the concentration among the previously healthy working age population, and the failure of alternative explanations all point to the COVID vaccine campaign as one of the primary driver of the excess disability. That is the assessment I have maintained as the numbers have updated. Ignoring a sustained, multi-sigma break in a core government survey does not make the break disappear. It only guarantees that the consequences continue to compound while institutions look the other way.
The July 2026 print at 37 million is simply the latest confirmation. The trend that began in February 2021 has not been explained by health authorities, has not been investigated with appropriate rigor, and has not been reversed. Until that changes, the data will keep speaking whether anyone in authority cares to listen or not.
NEVER FORGET!
The lies; the coercion; the murders; the maiming.
The sudden deaths; the long, slow, agonizing deaths.
The profits…….
And these criminals are still injecting innocent victims.
Amen brother
https://odysee.com/@JustMe:05/Utopia-Vaccine-Scene,-Hidden-in-plain-sight!:a
A study of 1.3 million women in the Czech Republic found that successful conception (SC) rates were approximately 33% lower (or 1.5 times lower) for women who received COVID-19 vaccines prior to conception compared to unvaccinated women during 2022.
Study Scope: The research analyzed nationwide data from 2021 to 2022 for women aged 18–39.
Key Findings: Women vaccinated before conception had consistently lower SC rates than unvaccinated women, with the disparity stabilizing throughout 2022.
Context: While the total fertility rate in the Czech Republic declined during this period, researchers noted that the association between vaccination and lower SC rates was substantial, though they stated the data does not prove causation.
https://odysee.com/Government-Corruption-Covid-Virus-Predictive-Programming-2020-Utopia-TV-Series—Vaccine-Causes-Fertility-Drop:065173c5fc9c8d4ba7277dfe4bba13ff5341f4f0
Watch from the 1:38 point.
Predictive programming.
Fixing the overpopulation problem by reducing fertility of young women and men as a side effect of COVID vaccines. Population will stop growing, on its own.
If overpopulation is the biggest problem the world is facing, I can see why researchers would want a vaccine that cut fertility. Bill Gates, who funded WHO (among other organizations) was very much interested in approaches similar to this, IIRC.
That would appear to be true about Gates.
Using ‘vaccines’ given to unsuspecting women (and men, affecting sperm count) not just to sterilise irreversibly but also to act as an ‘interruptor’ which can be switched on and off, thereby dialling up or down as seems expedient, would have much to recommend it from some points of view.
We can be quite sure that several experiments were, and are being carried out under the guise of ‘vaccination’.
It would also explain why the injection programme moved to swiftly from only the elderly and ‘vulnerable’, to younger adults of reproductive age, and teenagers.
We are living in Dr Mengele’s Experimental Block II.
The world is running out of oil brah.
regardless of your “feels”.
Uruguay female fertility falls from 2.0 in 2015 to 1.4 in 2022. What caused the rapid decline?
Uruguay had a relatively high rate of COVID vaccinations.
the powers that be have chosen what they call the sustainable path which is to stabilise the world’s population by any means necessary.
Put in their position what would we do to bring in our version of a sustainable world.
I believe that humans need to be looked after not treated like garbage that is thrown in the bin and forgotten.
Free land should be one’s birthright and free shelter along with a universal basic income.
“So long as I confine my activities to social service and the blind, they compliment me extravagantly, calling me ‘arch priestess of the sightless,’ ‘wonder woman,’ and a ‘modern miracle.’ But when it comes to a discussion of poverty, and I maintain that it is the result of wrong economics—that the industrial system under which we live is at the root of much of the physical deafness and blindness in the world—that is a different matter!
It is laudable to give aid to the handicapped. Superficial charities make smooth the way of the prosperous; but to advocate that all human beings should have leisure and comfort, the decencies and refinements of life, is a Utopian dream, and one who seriously contemplates its realization indeed must be deaf, dumb, and blind.”
—Helen Keller (1924)
If TPTB were competent, they’d have stabilised world population in 1970 when it was about 4 bn. Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb in 1968.
The basic message hasn’t changed but 4 bn extra people have been born since 1968. Some births could have been avoided and we wouldn’t now be in quite such a mess.
The direction of travel in the 21st C. is insane. All sorts of appliances, like washing machines and fridges, are being made to last five to seven years in normal useage, not 15 or even 25.
The result is increased environmental pollution, reduced convenience for consumers but … oh, the sheer triumph of it, it raises GDP. Selling Mrs Jones a £399 fridge every five years is so much better for the economy [sarc.] than only selling her a £499 fridge every 20 years.
A self-reinforcing cycle.
Thanks to economies of scale, many people ensured that even more people could be provided for.
This keeps escalating until it is no longer thermodynamically sustainable.
Here we are now, racking our brains.
David> yes, that’s logical assumption – valid argument.
But, the whole thing is like a steaming ocean vessel, it can’t be made stop on a dime. It takes decades to force changes.
For one thing, they counted on the proven recipe, that at some level of urbanization and basic comforts ( calorie input, contraception, hygiene, .. ) the demographics-newborns drop like a rock, which indeed did all-over the industrialized world achieving said metric.
Also, some have argued that say the hard drugs culture, HIV, .. etc. were early depop plans-agenda or at least phenomena nurtured further to desirable outcome as well.
Now, very recently they ( 2019+ ) came with the Covid-vax vector. And perhaps as in my personal case of few latest weeks, the thing now mutated even to spreading w. out needing the vax into vein at all.. aka aerial spread of new-ish strain only. But we don’t know how strong-potent this vector would be.. I’m now on a second wave ( ~3rd week ), luckily a bit less severe so far.
Plus as the decade flew fast, they are surely [ working on the very next thing ] to be ready soonish.
I wouldn’t assume that the nasty bug you caught recently was ‘Covid’, though, JR.
I came down with something really dreadful in around 2008, same symptoms as Covid, which were totally generic catch-all symptoms anyway.
It really floored me.
There was no Covid Pandemic, full stop.
There’s always some v nasty stuff circulating the decks on Spaceship Earth!
Worth taking a look at the ‘Optimum Population Trust’, which change its name to ‘Population Matters’.
I have nothing against the very reasonable idea of population control: but everything against injecting unsuspecting people to that end using lies and fraud.
And not least because so many women who were injected suffered great and distressing pain as a result, not to mention those who lost babies they were carrying.
” . . . population growth is a prerequisite for modernity, because the complexity of extraction technologies must grow to sustain flows of non-renewable resources as the quality of their reserves declines, and growing populations are necessary to make advanced technology feasible and economic.” ?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/22/cactus-challenges/
“I asked Professor Angus Dalgleish (Professor of Oncology at St. George’s University of London and one of the world’s leading cancer immunologists) whether he believed the COVID vaccine was creating turbo cancers. He said yes, and that after reviewing over 400 publications on the subject the mechanisms are so numerous it’s surprising there aren’t more cases than we’re already seeing. “?
https://x.com/delbigtree/status/2087984784987615656?s=20
Thanks, nicely summarized there, switching inner metabolic defense against cancer and also fast-tracking its appearance by two/three decades for people w. favorable natural genetics to it..
So, that’s ( was intended ) clearly as [ a depop instrument ].
Now, the only question, remains : is the plan working as it should or ~way slower than pre-planned, modeled, anticipated by now ?
Perhaps that very question – desired time profile impact – could tell us if they need now that fast forwarded [ globo war forcing] as well or not.
It’s very cunning:
1/ Get multiple ‘vaccines’ into elderly segment, who are likely to develop cancer anyway.
2/ Greatly increase incidence of cancer.
3/ Run propaganda campaign: ‘One in two will get cancer, puzzled scientists say’. Up from one in four before the Pandemic. Hmm……
4/ Cover-up.
What about the damage caused by COVID itself?
It didn’t exist, MG. Really, it didn’t.
This article is authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist. It is behind a paywall. He thinks that the amount of AI infrastructure being built is way too high. Once this is realized, the AI bubble will pop.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvidia-deal-beginning-end-ai-compute-boom
Nvidia Deal Is Beginning Of End For AI Compute Boom
Nvidia’s proposed deal to turn data centers into an investable asset risks leading to significant overcapacity in AI compute, especially if outcome-based pricing becomes the standard.
It may be more than 20 years since the housing bubble, but a new boom is in full flight, this time with silicon rather than bricks at its heart.. . . The parallels with the housing bubble are hard to miss. . .
Jensen Huang’s stated aim is to turn “AI factory compute” into an investable asset class. The market has already been heading in this direction, with an explosion in growth of GPU-backed debt this year.
The absolute numbers remain low, yet with the deal outlined Monday, Nvidia aims to unlock over $500 billion of capital for said AI factories. The partners in the agreement – Apollo, Brookfield, KKR, Blackstone, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs – would provide the capital, the infrastructure expertise and facilitate the securitization and distribution. . .Nvidia’s role is to scalably manufacture more demand for its chips by insuring up to 25% of the GPU collateral on some of the deals, ie backstopping their recovery value. . .
By sweetening the deal, Nvidia will enable senior tranches in debt structures to be rated higher. . .
Arguably Nvidia’s risk will be limited. But this was what AIG believed, and as time went on it took on ever more of what it thought were riskless — and profitable – obligations. Yet it discovered that a rise in the correlation of borrower stress can quickly become ruinous. . .
The cost of intelligence has been falling, but this is not immediately taken account of at the GPU level. . .
GPUs are reportedly heavily under-utilised. [Emphasis added.] A report from Cast AI found an average GPU utilization rate of only 5%, while ClearML found that almost half of companies are wasting “millions” on under-utilised chips. . .
There are potential fixes, such as better scheduling, batching, partitioning and routing, which would significantly increase the effective supply of GPUs. To bring it back to the housing crisis, it would be like being able to subdivide a large portion of the housing stock, vastly increasing supply at a stroke (this paper, for instance, concludes that ~50-75% efficiency GPU gains are possible). . .
As with the housing crisis, correlations don’t hang about when they get going. Nvidia’s proposed deal just moved us a little closer to eventually seeing this financial force of nature once more.
The Chinese are renting GPU time to the world. With electricity costing less in China and capital costing less lets see who wins the GPU rent wars.
Lawn watering and pool filling are unsustainable
https://www.postoj.sk/198678/zostali-bez-vody-maju-len-cisterny-a-nahnevanych-obyvatelov-problemom-su-aj-bazeny
Lawn watering and pool filling are both very optional activities. If a family is short of funds, they are likely to be cut back.
I suggest peeing on the lawn and walking for exercise instead of swimming. saves water, including the toilet flush, and is more sustainable.
Yes, but also the key prerequisite for ” the lawn ” is not to be manicured so low during such extremely hot/drought weeks-months lasting weather conditions.
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/worsening-drought-and-record-heat-grip-europe-fuelling-extraordinary-wildfires-and-extremely-low-2026-08-12_en
This is a strange situation:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-jobless-boom-has-arrived-41361a06
The Jobless Boom Has Arrived
The stock market thinks the economy is accelerating. Don’t expect jobs to follow.
Excerpts:
” We learned last week that total payrolls shrank in July, the fifth time in the past 12 months. Private payroll growth has averaged a little over 50,000 per month for the last year. These sorts of trends are virtually unprecedented outside recessions.”
Also:
If employers were competing for talent, we’d see it in pay, yet annual earnings growth is just 3.2%, the lowest since before the pandemic.
Lots could interfere with the economy unfolding the way the stock market seems to hope. Consumer demand has remained solid despite weak wages because so many households have been saving less. And private investment depends on the issuance of hundreds of billions of dollars of debt to finance data centers. Neither of those things can go on forever.
But they can keep going for now. Especially if AI accomplishes even a fraction of what the optimists think.
‘Jobless booms’ have occurred before.
I read a book from the 1830s which described the state of Britain.
Never before had there been so much capital accumulated – ie in gold – but never had living conditions been worse: a lack of work for all classes, professionals, artisans and labourers.
At that time, desperate labourers would apparently hire themselves out to pull wagons instead of horses. The only image I have ever found of that was a famous paining of Russian peasants pulling a barge.
The author advocated migration to the colonies of Australia and New Zealand.
Wages too low were definitely a problem at the time of many wars. It became easy to recruit young people into armies.
I hadn’t realized that there were also times of an actual loss of jobs.
This may be part of what is propping up the US stock market:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariff-refunds-company-earnings-1af269a2
Tariff Refunds Are Here—and Turbocharging Earnings
Apple, Nike and FedEx are just some of the companies that are recovering big sums relatively quickly.
This may be one of the ways the US stays ahead of the rest of the world in reported investment returns, for a while.
When i see people talking about the Yen carry trade. And describing it as people borrowing Yen yielding 0% and investing it globally in higher yielding assets. I know whoever is saying it really doesn’t understand what the Yen carry trade actually is.
The carry trade is Japanese banks and other financial institutions taking Yen denominated collateral. Using the collateral to borrow dollars or Eurodollars into existence and purchasing assets around the globe. The flow leaving Japan is in dollars. No Yen are borrowed into existence during the process of taking a Japanese T-bill equivalent or other collateral and using it to create dollar liquidity. Nobody is printing Yen. They are printing dollars.
Something that the central banks, their central bank included can’t do.
No such thing as a Petrodollar. The dollars that Japan and China have don’t come from oil sales. The dollars Japan and China put into US treasuries don’t come from oil sales. These are Eurodollars.
Anyway when these Japanese banks make loans denominated in US dollars or Eurodollars. They expect to be repay in Eurodollars which is something that not just anyone can create out of thin air. Not even the central banks or the US treasury. Eurodollars can become scarce under the right circumstances or conditions. Like we are under currently.
It’s the Eurodollar banks who control the money supply.
You make good points:
“Nobody is printing Yen. They are printing dollars.” Actually Eurodollars, loaned into existence.
This doesn’t sound like a stable system.
“No one is printing yen” Of course they are. When challenged to provide substantiation HHH admits below in fact he was just venting hyperbole and rationalises this by asserting that it doesn’t “move the needle”. Again no substantiation.
Asserting something does not make it true. More attention needs be given to basic logic and fallacy …
now, where’s my cubic kilometre of platinum …
moss,
I don’t think you are able to comprehend what i am say. Maybe i poorly explained it.
So i will try one more time.
The real Japanese carry trade. The flows of money that help grease the global economy. Freshly created money are Eurodollars. Created by Japanese commercial banks. Banks lending in dollars.
What we really don’t want to see is Japanese commercial banks stop providing dollars. Ok
We don’t care so much if they stopped lending in Yen. They wont stop. But it wouldn’t be as big of a deal as if they did stop. Not going to be a global meltdown due to a lack of Yen.
If they stop lending dollars. Providing dollars. That is a major problem. A major problem for the global economy and markets.
Hope that helps. Not sure there is a simpler way to explain it.
HHH
understanding what you are asserting is straight forward.
My issue is your credibility as you’re proposing something entirely unorthox and illogical.
“Freshly created money are Eurodollars. Created by Japanese commercial banks. Banks lending in dollars.”
Can you please provide any substantiation that Japanese banks are lending in Eurodollars rather than JPY?
Thank you
sigh … still no substantiation
Don’t be shy. Just post a few links corroborating your assertion that the Yen Carry Trade is based on Eurodollar borrowings from Japanese banks and not JPY borrowings.
No need for all the verbiage.
Something like this:
“Until 2024, borrowing in JPY to invest in higher-yielding currencies was so popular that it made up about one-fifth of daily currency trading”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp
Gail has wonderful patience here in affording us such a venue for free speech, but the price of which is the need for vigilance and discrimination on the part of readers. In contrast, at other places such as Naked Capitalism, Yves Smith rigorously scolds and bans commenters for “making shit up” as she puts it, which is against the site policies. Over the years here we have had some classic fantasists, quite a number of whom lasted for some time, before leaving with such comments as “I am no longer going to waste my time on plebs who believe man landed on the moon” et al
Moss, I hear you, but we likely won’t get official recognition of said setup – if it’s for real and or prior hitting some possible future real world massive fin-govs realignment shock threshold.
I do recall from say ~25yrs ago there were various early internet discussion sites talking about this very same phenomenon. So, ” HHH ” is NOT pulling it out from nowhere, although he at one instance evaded to answer me directly on some discussed tangent.
Some of these net discussion participants ( then youngish ) people later made careers inside the various central bank circles of institutions or private fin. sector.
Hence, ” serious ” people ( allowed inside ) discussed it before, that obviously doesn’t mean it must be correct, valid, and not some meme – failed theory / partial interpretation only..
Jr, yes, around 25 years ago on discussion groups on the internet – ones I followed at the time were GIM, PrudentBear, USAGold – the focus of much concern in the wake of the dot.com collapse and then 9/11 and Greenspan dropping rates to zero was the exponential growth of credit creation and where it would lead. It’s since travelled far, far further along the road than any of us conceived.at the time. In 2001 I reread LTG which had been a uni text soon after it was published.
It’s not exactly clear to me what you consider HHH is not pulling from a hat, however throwing around completely false and illogical statements can result from a habit of making sweeping assertions. For example, how can anyone here possibly know what I or anyone else here has been taught all their life? Wrongly asserting that the yen carry trade is something else altogether devalues analysis to a meaningless level. Definitions do matter.
The Yen Carry Trade and the very much larger Eurodollar credit market are two different animals. I understand the Yen Carry Trade has largely diminished as a result of the disappearance of very cheap Yen lending rates. The Eurodollar credit market has continued to expand to a stage that I consider threatens the integrity of the global financial architecture based as it is on a reserve banking system leveraging collateral. Today, banks in Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands may be creating far more credit in the form of balance sheet assets, in a range of currencies though primarily Eurodollars, than banks in Japan
Sorry, I focused more on the over-all message. You are correct in that point the nuance between Euro-dollar credit issuance and Yen carry trade vehicles.
Although I guess one of you for sure mentioned that Euro-dollar preceded the Yen-carry trade, at least by two decades, which came later.
Thanks, for mentioning the retrospective angle as well, yes the extension to dozens and hundreds of trillion of int $debt standing by now would have been beyond the wildest sci-fi dreams 25yrs ago.
What’s next ?
If we get into some blocks arrangement again ( post next crisis ), all that back credit could get ” easily ” nullified. Obviously, there will be some collateral damage on the margins and more importantly dire implication into the future then, and both EU and US would become the prime loosers; apart from some 3rd world countries not of interest to the CHN ascending block in terms of raw materials or other potential dev. angle to them.
moss,
There is nothing unorthodox and illogical about what i am say. You are taught all your life that Central Banks are the center of the global monetary system.
You are taught that US dollars are the global reserve currency. And that US dollars can only come from the FED reserve and other US based banks.
None of which is true. The global systematically important banks in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s decided to take control of the money supply. They kinda had to since there just wasn’t sufficient dollar liquidity available outside of the US.
Today those banks are a club or cartel as i like to refer to them as. Not all banks are privilege enough to be included.
So you have your dollar providers. And since the world decided it wanted to borrow dollars. Lots of dollars. These banks control the global monetary system. Not the governments and central banks.
The Saudi money accumulated over decades of oil sells mostly comes from Eurodollar banks that create US dollar credits on their balance sheets. Using collateral, the T-bills and other government short term debt, These loans or credits that are created are the monetary grease that allows oil to be shipped from one place to another. And all the other things that get shipped from one place to another.
The Eurodollar is a system of banks that work together. Think of it as having an I-phone with all the apps.
Without the system of banks working together it’s like having a phone with no apps. You can’t do very much.
The China we all know as of today was built on Eurodollar inflows of capital. Sure the Chinese willingness to use massive amounts of coal and cheap labor to be the worlds factory floor helped.
But the money came from the Eurodollar banks. It was profitable to lend dollars into China.
So yeah, If the Eurodollar banks pullback on creating dollar liquidity. Then governments have to start selling things like their US treasury holdings to provide those dollars. Or sell gold if the got gold to provide those dollars.
This tiny so call Yen carry trade. The borrowing of Yen is a nothing burger in the grand scheme of thing.
There are guys out there who come out and say it’s a huge deal when it actual isn’t. They are trying to make a buck on a trade. Or make a buck by creating content on Youtube. Yen carry unwind sounds scary? If you can create enough fear you can profit from it.
If they are long gold they are saying Yen carry unwind is a massive boost for the price of gold.
Which is nonsense. Plentiful dollar liquidity would be a massive boost for gold price. But when dollars are in short supply gold gets sold.
Gold need Japan to keep providing dollars.
I should have also add that yes. US treasuries need the dollar providers in the Eurodollar market to continue providing dollars.
So those dollar will continue flowing into US treasuries.
As long as the US runs nearly $1 trillion in annual trade deficits, there will be plenty of Eurodollars created. It is just a question of where they are. (Mostly China, Japan and EU). Please correct me if I am mistaken.
Bam_Man,
No the US trade deficits is far too small to satisfy the demand for dollars outside the US. Which is why Eurodollar banks came about in the first place. The demand for dollars used in global trade and finance far outpaced supply of dollars coming from US trade deficits. The world needed a bypass or workaround to this problem. Otherwise globalization would have never happened.
The large commercial banks bypassed Triffin’s dilemma and created there own dollar liquidity. Eurodollars are bank credits created outside the US. These banks mainly use short term government bills for collateral based lending.
Chinese banks aren’t included. Most of the dollars that flow into China are Eurodollars via Japanese commercial banks. As long as business is good these credits freely flow into China because it is profitable to do so.
These large Japanese banks will take some form of collateral. Usually a US T-bill or the Japanese equivalent. They use them as collateral to expand their balance sheets by creating loans in dollars.
What pretty much everyone seems to not understand is Japan doesn’t need the US treasury or the New York FED to provide them dollar liquidity.
Japanese Eurodollar banks can create all the dollar liquidity Japan needs.
Japanese banks can also provide all the Yen needed to purchase bonds or fund their government. There is no shortage of Yen in Japan. There is no bond crisis in Japan.
However these banks don’t have to provide the dollars needed. The government can’t force them to. Japanese banks can print dollars to buy Yen if they want. But they aren’t and they won’t. Why? It’s more profitable to buy stock shares in the US since the passive retirement bid is so large. Japan needs yield to repay all of it’s government promises it’s made.
Who holds the power here the government or the banks?
Thank you for your kind reply/explanation.
Yes, the Japanese Eurodollar banks can create all the dollar liquidity that Japan needs- as long as they are not capital constrained and can find credit worthy borrowers.
Those would seem to be big iffs.
HHH, thanks a lot for clarifying. Appreciate it.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/eurodollar-university/id1506469669?i=1000780337997
This is a good description
Steve Van Metre has a new video out also:
20 minutes to say that:
– Japan has become a low ROI economy, therefore, a low EROI economy, causing the Yen to devalue, causing inflation to soar, and as he says “increasing energy prices”
– Seeking better pastures, japanese hedges invest in foreign assets with higher ROI, from higer EROI economies. That’s one of the reasons Japan has so many US Treasure’s Bonds, or US stocks.
– The Yen keeps getting devalued because of that, and the only way to reverse it would be to raise rates, so that investments come back to Japan
Now, this is me:
Investments will never come back to Japan. Japan is an exclusive importer of energy and food – the basis for any economy and to survival itself, and it only became a great country because those were dirty cheap since the coal and oil ages.
They could have the luxury of focusing on manufacturing high end export goods instead, but ironically, this model, which has been the “first world nation” model, is reversing everywhere, as no one can afford these goods anymore, which in fact led to the rise of China.
China could only become what it became because it brought massive deflation to these high end product prices, due to vast virgin reserves of cheap coal and a massive slave-like workforce. They tipped the balance, changed the voltage, away from expensive low EROI first world countries and brought it to themselves. Japan was a huge victim of it.
The West tried to survive it focusing on the services economy, and through financial domination. It worked until China decided to develop its own brands of everything, basically exterminating every Western company which was taking advantage of China.
Now, how does anyone expect this to reverse again? Only if China itself becomes too expensive (low EROI), more even than Japan. This seems very unlikely, not to say impossible, and, you see, there are many economies already doing to China what it did to others, but not Japan, not the West, cheap, high EROI countries are doing it, and only for now.
That’s why Japan can’t raise rates. In fact, that’s why Europe can’t raise rates either, or the US.
So, Japan is doomed. The Yen is doomed. People need to understand that what’s happening is a correction, to correct overvalued former first world economies back to the bottom, as their high end exports start disappearing due to unaffordability and industrial destruction, turning them into glorified third world countries, but without cheap food.
Japan imports much of its food. This food is increasingly expensive. People in Japan have less and less money left over to purchase things other than food. They cut back on non-essentials.
While the result looks like inflation, it is really another example of diminishing returns pushing costs for the population up, especially for necessities, like food. (Oil prices affect food prices, for one thing.)
People always assume that shortages will lead to higher prices. Well, maybe for food, but there will be cutbacks on everything else (including restaurant dining). This pushes the economy toward collapse.
By the way, I am not a fan of EROI. I think it leads to a lot of wrong comparisons. It is practically impossible to measure right. It cannot consider interest on debt, for example.
I use EROI as “Margins”. I focus a lot in the ROI part, but I don’t want to disassociate it from Energy.
Every time I visualize EROI, in fact, it comes to mind your graph of “too cheap for producers, too expensive for consumers”.
I woke up bright-eyed and bushy-tailed this morning, had breakfast and took a nice walk in the warm sunshine. The birds and cicadas were singing gaily and all the bees were busy gathering pollen from the various flowers. Life was beautiful.
Then I came back inside, read your comment, and I am wondering whether to slit my throat or hang myself in the closet.
If collapse is baked into the cake, then it follows that we’re all doomed. Although, arguably, some of us are a lot more doomed than others. Personally, though, I can’t think of a nicer place to be doomed in than Japan.
At least the Japanese are likely to go down gracefully, calmly, and with dignity. They are not afraid of hard work or self-sacrifice. They don’t turn every little crisis into an excuse for rioting, complaining, or finger-pointing. They don’t show anger or fight in the street or murder each other in significant numbers. Remember, this is the land of Zen, Ikebana, Karate, Sushi, and anime. They have got staying cool under pressure down to a fine art.
yes for now unless japan regresses back to the edo period
The new Edo period is one possibility. After all, the world will keep spinning and people will need to struggle to survive somehow even in the absence of oil, coal and natural gas.
But I believe I am less pessimistic than most people on OFW. I think this technology thing may still have a way to go.
About hydrocarbon fuels and oil in particular, one thing I would like to draw people’s attention to is that production has been suppressed for some time. (Gail, let me know if I a wrong on this.) I haven’t researched the statistics, but I note that for five decades OPEC has been limiting oil production by its members to keep prices up. While the US has been embargoing Libyan oil, Iraqi oil, Venezuelan oil, Iranian oil, and Russian oil on and off for almost as many decades.
One way of viewing this is that there is so much oil around that the global hegemon is playing whack-a-mole in order to throttle back production.
I don’t know why they are doing this. Perhaps it’s a good subject for a future post. Or perhaps someone smarter than me can explain the whys and wherefores of it.
The US has been using sanctions and bombings to keep oil production low in some places.
Iran has been under sanctions since 1979. Libya was bombed, and its production has been intermittent since then. Venezuela has been under sanctions.
The fact that the central government of the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 has really been helpful recently, because it delayed Russia’s oil production until later.
There is a huge amount of heavy oil around the world. If we could use oil in a somewhat more efficient manner, we could perhaps afford to extract it.
Tim> that ” whack a mole ” oil provinces as we go slowly through decades -theory- is great indeed. However, I’d posit that large if not key predominant motivation behind is the uneven distribution of various ” oil & gas ” deposits globally, and the needed blending to get the finished coterie of products of the (petro-)chem industry.
My opinion FWIW is that OPEC has operated under a quota arrangement to balance the distribution of sales between members. Prior to the present Persian Gulf war, the OPEC impact on global prices had diminished greatly as their proportion of exported oil had fallen but non-OPEC members were producing as much as they could export at a profit. Consequently, I don’t think there’s any massive surplus remaining that can be produced at an afforable price that’s likely to be released.
They were doomed. They just didn’t know it.
This is a very watchable 1-minute video about the 1991 Mt. Unzen volcanic eruption.
Not a bad way to go, if one is in a State of Grace……
Please explain how Eurodollars can be issued without any US say-so. My understanding is Eurodollar banks have correspondent banks in the USA. So sure, European banks could issue Eurodollar loans (unbacked claims), but without a correspondent bank backing those, they are subject to failure and skating on thin ice. Agree?
ivan,
The world chose to use Eurodollars as their preferred form of global money about 75 to 80 years ago. The US dollar isn’t really the global reserve currency. The Eurodollar is the global reserve currency everyone uses for trade and finance.
These dollar credits are indeed backed by collateral. Usually a US T-bill or Japanese equivalent bill. European banks often use short term Italian bills as collateral to create dollar liquidity.
It’s when these banks stop lending because it isn’t profitable to do so or they fear they won’t be repaid that is when the dollar becomes an issues.
No there is no backstop entity that can step in and provide the dollar liquidity if these bank chose not to provide it. Which is why the government and central bank interventions don’t really work. They can’t create the credits and place the credits exactly where they need to be.
When the oil flow slows or stops so do the credits that keep the global economy spinning.
HHH,
every previous explaination other than yours above of the carry trade I’ve come across states it’s based on a differential between the low borrowing cost of JPY and the returns from an asset in a higher yielding currency.
Collateral is just collateral, almost anything acceptable to the lender can be pledged. In contrast borrowing cost is generally based on the currency borrowed (adjusting for risk on collateral) and for decades JPY has been one of the cheapest currencies in which to borrow and repayments, being made in JPY are lessened in asset currency values by any JPY devaluation. JPY is borrowed and JPY is repaid – which is why it’s been a free lunch.
If borrowing costs are based on USD, how is there any carry?
Can you please offer substantiating links to your unorthodox assertion?
moss,
While there is in fact some of the traditional explanation of the Yen carry trade going on. It’s not what move the needle here.
What matter is Japanese institution leveraging up their Japanese collateral.
The real carry trade is the dollar. Or Eurodollar to be clear. Those are credits that flow into everything globally. And when these credits start flowing out of everything. That is when the problems start and everyone perks up and seems to notice.
HHHmmmmmm
OK the ground is shifting somewhat. The “tradional” borrowings in the JPY carry trade now does exist. It’s opaque and estimates of it size range from maybe one to five trillion USD. But it’s not a myth.
USD and Eurodollar assets on bank balance sheets are somewhere in the order of 150 to 200 trillion. Asserting that these assets are “the real carry trade” is something I’ve never read and therefore why I asked for some substantiating link. Definitions do matter.
I understand the relatively small amount of JPY lending compared to Eurodollars is nevertheless of great concern because of leveragee and the current vulnerability of Japanese banks’ balance sheets holding huge bond market losses. In my opinion it “can move the needle” very greatly.
Ultimately, of course, collapse may be triggered by derivative exposures globally and the “traditional” carry trade along with vulnerablities all over the place, from EM to G7, will be swept away in the tusanami. Or something else.
No one knows the future.
Yes we don’t know the future; but I think we can deduce that we are slowly approaching something like Covid and 2008 crash along with various wars
A mother found her son, who had been stabbed, between the blocks of flats. Attempts to resuscitate him were unsuccessful.
He was the father of four young children.
The people of Lučenec have been shaken by a terrible family tragedy. Among the blocks of flats in the Rúbanisko housing estate, a mother found her 36-year-old son, Štefan, with a stab wound to the chest. Sadly, the father of four young children could not be revived. TV JOJ reported on the horrific incident on Friday 10 July.
As the bereaved mother told the channel, Štefan had slipped out of the flat in the early hours of the morning. His partner realised that a large knife was missing from the kitchen and so alerted relatives.
The mother of the deceased told TV JOJ that her son had no mental health issues or suicidal thoughts, but on the evening before the tragedy he had been talking strangely about God and Satan. He was working steadily, and he and his partner were expecting a new addition to their family.
Parts translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://my.sme.sk/novohrad/c/matka-nasla-medzi-panelakmi-bodnuteho-syna-ozivit-sa-ho-nepodarilo
Good lord, what’s so special about this? People kill people in the West every day.
Don’t you see? He couldn’t bear it. A fifth offspring was coming, and he realized that his f… meant that somebody had to go…
America “first time”? (meme)
Talking about God and Satan. I pick schizophrenia.
If it was schizophrenia, mega dosing with niacin might have fixed it.
I pick the devil, whispering in his ear.
A father of four young children and with another on the way and living in a block of flats in Slovakia in 2026—what’s not to be worried out of your mind about? This is very much an age of anxiety. The devil takes advantage of this terrain.
Are the police sure it was self-inflicted—that he stabbed himself?
What happened in Losonc, of Nograd County of the Kingdom of Hungary, is typical of the devolution sweeping these regions after Woody Wilson, who never left North America until 1919, gave countries to peoples who had no business running it.
As discussed not long ago, today’s Slovakia hosted ~2k yrs ago various Roman Empire mil. temporary encampments..
At that time Woody Wilson’s ancestors were Brittonic – Caledonia herders.. at best, so it’s a wash w. time delay.
A slow word simulation after-all..
The EIA just reported a 17.4mb build in crude oil inventories in the US (ex-SPR). Let’s do some math, shall we?
– Domestic production: 13.8mbd
– Domestic consumption: 17.3mbd
– Imports: 7.3mbd
– Exports: 3.0mbd
⚠️Net Total: +0.8mbd x 7 = 5.6mb net build
Where did the EIA find an additional 11.8mb? You tell me…
We know the EIA started a few weeks ago to follow the steps of the BLS and fake crude oil data significantly, but to be fair, this is too much since they forgot to even square the math just to push the US administration narrative .
https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/2087562171245101319
When in doubt look to the arithmetic . —Matt Simmons RIP
It does sound pretty strange, I will admit.
Gail , clarification .
“”Where did the EIA find an additional 11.8mb?” – After dissecting the whole report, this is the only way the EIA could have “found” 11.8mb more of crude oil: including in the count foreign crude oil stocks (meaning they do not belong to the US, but are only there for processing) ”
https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/2087725021913645356/photo/1
Re: Putin threatens to ‘retaliate’ in kind if EU seizes shadow fleet vessels
Game on. Or: What goes around has a tendency to come around.
My view is that states are effectively free to do whatever they want (‘sovereignty’), and they are constrained in their behaviour only by other states. Value judgements about state behaviour tend to be self-interested however ‘grandly’ they present themselves.
The USA, EU, and UK have imposed unilateral sanctions on Russia but sanctions have to be approved by the UN, and the UN holds that unilateral sanctions are contrary to the founding UN Charter and to international law.
It is standard in warfare to impose trade embargoes and naval blockades on the enemy, and polities have done that since time immemorial. It constrains the economic basis of the enemy state’s military prowess.
Obviously the USA, EU, and UK act in some ways as if they are at war with Russia, and Russia is obviously aware of that. The USA, EU, and UK seem reluctant to get into a direct war with Russia, and it will be interesting to see how they respond to this.
France and Britain have recently intercepted Russian vessels, and likely their own vessels would be the focus here. French and British vessels use ‘out-flagging’ for tax avoidance, hiring cheaper multinational crews, and reducing regulatory overhead.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-russia-shadow-fleet-eu-vessels-b3031783.html
Putin threatens to ‘retaliate’ in kind if EU seizes shadow fleet vessels
European states are considering stricter measures to target vessels believed to be avoiding sanctions against Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow will retaliate in kind should European nations begin seizing Russian commercial ships, while the commander of Russia’s Pacific Fleet stated his personnel stand prepared to “inspect and detain” foreign boats.
Speaking while supervising naval exercises in eastern Russia, Putin issued the warning as the European Union steps up action against Moscow’s covert shadow fleet, broadening sanctions to encompass hundreds of vessels and stopping individual vessels alongside their crews.
A number of European states have confirmed they are considering stricter maritime intervention protocols to target vessels believed to be circumventing trade sanctions.
“We can see that the authorities of certain countries, in violation of international maritime law, are attempting to restrict the movement of our economic operators’ vessels … and have recently gone so far as to consider the possibility of seizing our vessels and selling off the property they have plundered from us,” said Putin.
“Naturally, this is nothing less than piracy and robbery. And if this begins to be put into practice, we shall be forced to respond in kind. And not necessarily in those waters where raids on our ships and vessels are planned, but wherever we ourselves deem it necessary and appropriate.”
Viktor Liina, commander of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, told Putin that what he described as hostile countries like Britain and France also transported goods on vessels flying flags of convenience which – if the EU and Britain’s own language was used – could also be described as a “shadow fleet”.
“Western states are actively using vessels flying the flags of third countries to transport cargo in their own interests. In essence, this constitutes their shadow fleet,” Liina told Putin.
“We have the capabilities to inspect and detain vessels belonging to unfriendly states and their shadow fleet; inter-agency coordination is in place, and we are ready to tackle these tasks.”
He said his fleet had carried out a detailed analysis of maritime traffic in the Asia-Pacific region and knew the routes, the cargo, and ownership of the vessels. Putin also accused Nato of threatening behaviour in the Asia-Pacific region, and of creating tension in the Arctic.
“We can see that, unfortunately, the potential for conflict is growing here; Nato is making inroads here; new military-political blocs are being formed; and new weapons systems are being deployed here, or are planned for deployment, which also pose a threat to our country,” said Putin.
More uncrossable red lines. I hope someone will ask Putin whether drone-bombing the Kremlin or his temporary residence, when Trump set him up, were also red lines.
States can do whatever they want, and they don’t have to react to every provocation. Humans have the capacity for non-reactive aggression, depending on their neurochemical complexity, and that allows them to act in their own interests in the time and place of their choosing.
Of course states try to deter each other with ‘red lines’, but that doesn’t mean that they react to every contrary act. The world wasn’t born yesterday, and it is not trying to impress people on social media who think that they understand how things work and who expect constant reactive aggression from grown up states.
Putin is very clear about when Russia will now respond in kind; he told the USA that it would now give targeting data and kit to proxies to use against USA in other regions, after USA helped Ukraine to shoot long-range missiles into Russia, and that is exactly what Russia did in Iran. The result is that all of the USA military bases in the Persian Gulf are destroyed or badly damaged, and USA is effectively pushed out of the Persian Gulf. That is when and where it counts.
Putin has now said that he will act against ‘EU’ shipping at the time and place of Russia’s choosing, and that is what it will do. It may be in the Asia-Pacific or somewhere else depending on when and where it actually counts.
States are not interested in tit-for-tat, they are interested in pursuing their own interests, and what we are seeing now is the collapse of international law, and the re-establishment of older ways. NATO has also pursued that course, and Russia accepts. It is only a matter of time now, and the Battle of Donbas will soon enough be over, and that will free up Russia to focus on more outward looking actions. Geopolitics is not a Five Day cricket match.
So how is Russia doing in the era of a return to older ways? Russia will take what suits it in Ukraine. What has USA got? USA is a scaredy cat when it comes to Greenland and the EU. USA can’t even defeat Denmark, let alone Iran or China. Trump is all mouth about he is going to do this and that, and USA is far too weak politically to even take Greenland, a massive resource-rich island right off its coast. We can all see who is all mouth there.
On revenge, from the Norse sagas:
‘A slave wants his revenge immediately. But a wise man waits….’
I disagree with much of this. Russia has been very passive.
I would agree: Russia has been amazingly passive. Or perhaps we are not seeing how badly things are going in Ukraine. He may be doing his revenge there, only.
We can vote for politicians, but the bankers hold all the power and we’ve no way to overturn their policies at the ballot box. This will have to be fought, sooner or later.
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/we-cant-vote-our-way-out-of-this?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1063805&post_id=210896410&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
So maybe running up $40 trillion (and growing fast) in federal government debt wasn’t such a good idea.
It was good for them! 😉
And if they manage to “change” the system while retaining control then it will have achieved its goal.
The idea of democracy was invented and promoted by the bankers. They knew that it could be easily subverted. If you ant to get rid of the bankers going medieval could be a better strategy.
Not so much democracy, as constitutional monarchy, which of course led to democracy.
Absolutist monarchs, and in more primitive societies, despots, could take the wealth of the aristocracy (and of course the bankers) any time they liked, in theory and sometimes in reality.
The ability not only to make capital and keep it for oneself, protected by law, combined with accelerating technological innovation financed by that capital, was the key to the industrial revolution.
In contrast, the wealth of Islamic states ended up being locked up in religious foundations, which was the only way to avoid the confiscation of capital by despots who always sought to destroy ‘over-rich’ subjects. Religious fanaticism also destroyed the pursuit of science in Islam.
I think that politicians and bankers are likely overturned at the same time.
The economic system for a country crashes, perhaps by the government not being able to keep adding to its debt without the interest rate going way up. Or by the politicians somehow being thrown out. Or by losing a war.
One way or another, a totally new government is formed. Or the top level government disappears, and the individual states don’t take over all of the functions of the federal government. For example, they do not guarantee bank solvency. They don’t offer health care. They don’t offer unemployment insurance. They may provide little or no income to the elderly.
Their power resides in this very economy which is dying, and that’s why they’re desperate to keep it alive. They can use every financial tool at their disposal, but it won’t work against physics.
Once the economy crashes, their source of power (money) will be gone and nature will correct it, promoting real sources of power: strenght, numbers, violence.
They’ll be sidestepped then, because money is just a proxy for power, and it won’t have any value anymore, only power will mean power.
They’re smart, they had a great idea, but financial alchemy, living in an unreal metaphysical world of numbers, can’t be sustained in and on itself. Many debt crisis from historical antiquity were due to that: debts becoming unpayable, because they became larger than the economy itself, larger even than every resource available, and that’s why there were debt jubilees.
Why don’t do that, then? First, because it would create hyperinflation and crash the economy all the same. And second, because their power comes exactly from the debt, and they don’t want to lose this power.
Just sit and watch, there’s nothing anyone can do.
I am afraid you are right. We are way too near the edge of hyperinflation and crashing the economy.
The amount of physical goods is at the edge of going down. The amount of debts is just amazing, when all of the derivatives, ETFs, and other packaged debt is included. The system cannot work for very long.
Peasant uprisings usually end with many dead peasants.
The Plandemic gave us something novel: trusting peasants, happy to conform with what the rulers wanted, ended up dead or poisoned.
An historical first!
Hitherto, in Britain for instance, all massacres were carried out during periods of conquest, rebellion and suppression: William the Norman, Richard II, Henry VIII and of course the 1745 Highland Rising.
Moreover, then the rulers made no secret about what they were doing: but the ‘vaccine’ murders were secret, and covered up very efficiently.
In my opinion it would be very stupid to have the vaccine kill instantly. A slow burn would offer better deniability. And controlling the media means the question of what is killing people never gets asked or pointed in the right direction. Climate change is killing more people!
I know of no one who died during covid, i know almost a dozen who have died of pneumonia this year.
I know of one case in which a young woman took four years to die from the effects of the vaccines.
She died in great agony at the age of 30.
I did what I could to console the father, who mercifully had no idea of vaccine lethality.
Great mini-thread, thanks.
Btw. that truism about ~always failed commoners’ uprisings has been obviously studied by key intellectuals for millennia and centuries. The only ~recent output from all this effort was studies focused into definition and innards of [ class society ] via Marxism, which after various gestation phases matured and say from 1920s onwards further split into two branches the Western ( aka J -ish ) and the orthodox Stalinist, the latter now reshaped since 1970s and evolved into the CHN kind of action.
To large surprise ( and dis-belief ) of various self-proclaimed market-driven aficionados, in fact the current prevailing [ globo order ] is just perverted or re-focused version of the Western ( J -ish ) branch of Marxism, where all the tools are simply ” re-versed “, i.e. the owner’s class is keeping the masses down and pretty mellow by understanding the innards of human-iod societal structures.
Basically, all these publicly visible clowns ala Ursulanians, Donaldski gang et al., are just lower level gearing mechanism for the owner class, which learned from Marxism ( meaning since ~ mid 19th century ), how to properly maintain the class structure to their advantage. Truly a shocker revelation for most laymen – residing in the ” West ” and brainwashed since childhood, but this basics should be repeated from time to time just to clear up the air..
Guillme in Spain writes infrequently so not as well known as Quark . Here is his viewpoint on the Moroccan invasion of Spain in Ceuta . All wars are ” energy wars ” . It is in Spanish so use translator .
” I believe a significant part of this whole mess is part of a strategy by those who truly hold power in the EU to drag the entire Union into a war over resources, especially Algerian gas, by staging a Morocco-Algeria war. And with that, to achieve precisely what I’ve been warning about for several years.”
https://beamspot.substack.com/p/la-amenaza-fantasma?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1679806&post_id=210785862&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=26quge&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
This is a long, complex post, trying to explain the many pieces that go into the problem. It is hard to find a piece to quote the fully explains the issue.
Lack of natural gas is a major issue, and Algeria is a natural gas exporter. Algeria and Morocco do not get along. If a foreign army is brought into Spain, it might help quell any uprising in the future.
The Spanish will never overthrow their rulers. My Catalan cousin always says they were broken by the Civil War, and the long dictatorship of Franco.
I would add too many years of soft living and prosperity have weakened them further.
And before that Napoleon’s rule, and before that Austrian-Hapsburg’s ruling faction demise, and prior to that..
Basically, Spain is a case study of former ( global ) empire’s slide into oblivion in many stages ( almost ongoing for 400yrs already ) but somewhat never-ending slow-mo step by step process. Which also speaks about today’s nature of their former Central+South American, and Asian provinces under control; later taken under the FR, UK/US protective wings despite local nationalist movements.
I can’t recall who it was who suggested that there might be a war to annex Algerian gas for the use of the EU some years ago.
Arab spring – lite/sanitized ver :
__
Nixon, Ron (14 April 2011). “U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings”. The New York Times. Archived from the original on 23 January 2017. Retrieved 24 February 2017. The New York Times, 14 April 2011
__
https://web.archive.org/web/20170204082448/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Permian DUC’s are down to a 12-year low and are another ‘insurance policy’ of oil markets that no longer exists!
Combined with flat lined US oil production + decade-low commercial crude inventories + 40-year low SPR crude inventories, 🇺🇲 is at max capacity on oil supply. 🛢💰
https://x.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/2087535659368226816/photo/1
Hey guys , your insurance just got cancelled .
Thank you for your attention .
Qatar’s LNG exports crashed to near zero from March through May.
They are now climbing back, the highest level since the war began.
Still, that is only about 50 to 70 thousand tons a day, versus roughly 200 thousand tons in 2025.
Qatar is running its plant at lower capacity on purpose, positioning for when Hormuz reopens.
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2087535192357396571/photo/1
Thank you for your attention . 😉
Qatar is adding to world LNG supplies, assuming its tankers can get through. This may help the Far East shortages.
Worldwide, high-priced LNG is unaffordable. There may not be much of a shortage. There was concern about oversupply, before this supply was taken off line.
Gail , Sweet dreams by Boy George was super hit . However in the real world . No aluminium .
https://www.aluminium-journal.com/qatalum-to-shut-down-aluminium-smelter
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/worlds-largest-alumina-refinery-outside-china-abruptly-halves-output-natgas-disruption
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-low-rhine-levels-disrupt-raw-material-flows-europes-largest-steelmaking-plant
Wasn’t sweet dreams by The Eurythmics(see below).
https://youtu.be/qeMFqkcPYcg?si=2kyDaqAFgqQyl3Dp
Not sure I would want to hear Boy George ruining it(he did have quite a good voice, but not Lennox level).
Who am I to disagree?
The chart of Drilled but Uncompleted Wells shows what looks like a symmetrical Hubbert Curve, reaching a 12-year low. There were few DUCs back 12 years ago.
It is going to zero convincingly, unlike some other charts. But that means the end is not far.
It all seems to be falling apart for Trump. He sneaks off of Airforce 1, getting on another plane, through fear of attack, but leaves all the journalists on there as bait, for the fictional attack.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/trump-secretly-flees-air-force-one-as-reporters-are-left-beh
At the same time his own attackers are killing each other.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246919/Deadly-brawl-reported-aboard-USS-Abraham-Lincoln
Meanwhile Iran(between fits of laughter) have said no opening of Hormuz until all demands are met and anyone that doesn’t agree can bring it on.
Trying to keep a ship in the Middle East for so long, just isn’t working. I am sure it is hot. The food situation is probably still not great.
From the second link:
The incident erupted after an adviser to US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper boarded the carrier to address mounting complaints from crew members following protests by their families over the ship’s prolonged deployment, according to Tasnim News Agency, citing an informed military source.
The adviser was reportedly met with boos and had water bottles thrown at him while addressing a gathering of personnel.
The confrontation subsequently escalated into a fight among crew members involving knives and other bladed weapons, leaving seven personnel dead and several others wounded, according to the source.
The atmosphere aboard the carrier remains tense and unsettled, Tasnim reported.
Hard to imagine sailors killing one another like this. Only reported by Tasnim News. Likely fake.
I agree but let us keep in mind this is the country that invented fragging. I will wait for more confirmation. Seven is a large number. But if true, I would be interested in knowing the rank of the dead, and which sailors squared off on which side of the brawl.
The story goes that they killed one another with knives. Unless it happened in the mess hall, I doubt it. This seems like a story invented by someone from a region where knife attacks are are common and guns are not.
I agree, but not with your reasoning(few people on a ship are allowed to carry firearms as far as I know, which isn’t much I have to admit). The bulk of the crew are basically prison inmates, so a shiv would be the most appropriate close quarters weapon.
Had a look and no other regional media appears to have even a hint(haven’t checked Yemeni media, but couldn’t find it even at Tasnim), although Cooper has been in the region and so it’s possible something happened, but I doubt it was as problematic as claimed(read some of his words. What a lying loon).
I was hoping for a mutiny on the bounty scenario, with the crew asking for asylum in Iran and the Abraham Lincoln parked in Bandar Abbas(as a historical theme park or similar).
Western media would cover it about as much as they covered the USS Liberty’s planned demise(strange that Trump just yesterday blamed Iran for the Cole, but no mention of the Liberty. I wonder why).
I do know that there are still actions going on, that the White House are quiet about and corporate media likewise. There have also been rumours of the ships getting nightly drone visits, which would fray the nerves after a year at sea(rumours, no more and I’m leery of the sources).
Why would they turn on one another? And a fist fight would be much more likely if they did.
Seems unlikely but if true I want to know the race of the people involved.
I would be very hesitant to believe that crew members killed one another in this way.
It looks more likely that they are killing themselves, rather than crewmates(but who knows, as the US have been lying about their dead and injured since day 1).
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-sailors-attempt-suicide-off-uss-abraham-lincoln
Mutiny might be back on 😁
Alternatively, Trump said Hormuz is 100% open and 100% US controlled.
This evening Solar eclipse to be witnessed over the ocean edge of W. Europe, and partially more broadly across the continent. Also possible to [ watch it live ] over usual institutions websites :
https://www.esa.int/
https://www.nasa.gov/
+ also the accompanying effect of Perseids Meteor Shower
( starts 11pm CT @ NASA YT/channels )
“That is the strategic bind. The interceptor-production timeline is measured in the two to four years it takes to stand up new factory lines. The supply-chain-independence timeline is measured in the five-to-ten years it realistically takes to build heavy rare-earth refining and qualified magnet production from a near-standing start. And the threat timeline — the rate at which Patriots get expended in the next conflict — is measured in days. The three do not line up.”?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/trump-wants-2000-more-patriot-interceptors
An issue we have heard about before, explained more fully:
There is only one tiny problem that the contract cannot fix with money alone — The PAC-3’s guidance system — the part that makes a hit-to-kill interceptor actually hit — depends on two rare-earth inputs whose supply is almost entirely controlled by China. Washington is pressing its defense primes to more than triple output of a weapon whose most irreplaceable components sit at the far end of a supply chain that runs through Beijing. The ambition and the vulnerability are growing at the same time, and they are on a collision course.
Exports of sticks and stones from the US to Taiwan surge!
Burnout or falling into debts:
Some people are saving up for burnout rather than retirement
https://www.trend.sk/spravy/niektori-ludia-si-namiesto-na-dochodok-sporia-na-vyhorenie?itm_modul=react_trend_timelinebox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=2&itm_cb_position=top_sidebar_1
The issue isn’t just burnout. It is the fact that managers don’t necessarily want programmers and others involved in the day-to-day work who are over 40 years old. They go to a “contract worker” model, and don’t keep them employed. A person needs different skills for managing than programming. These folks have a hard time finding jobs that pay as well as programming.
I am afraid there is no way back, such as simply taking a break from work: burnout is caused by accumulated complexity, and that complexity keeps accumulating. Especially when you are a manager who keeps pushing a string and losing capable workers because you keep requiring them to be more and more productive.
You end up sending emails to your subordinates that no one reads.
The end of the AI will be the switching off the computer. No respect. Enough.
Jim Rickards on the yen carry trade and the price of gold:
Eight-time, best-selling financial author Jim Rickards is warning of a financial calamity already underway that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to contain. It is the Japanese yen carry trade where the US Treasury is propping up the yen’s value. Is the yen carry trade coming to a halt and can it blow up things? Rickards says, “The answer is yes and yes. . .. Somebody wrote me and asked if the yen carry trade is a big deal? I wrote them back and said there is nothing bigger. This is actually the biggest story in the world.”
In simple terms, the problem is people have been borrowing at 0% in yen to do deals around the world. Everything was fine until interest rates in Japan started going up after more than two decades. Rickards says, “This is the engine of global economic growth. It has been powering the US economy and the global economy for over 30 years. What could go wrong? The thing that could go wrong the fastest is if Japanese interest rates went up. . .. The bank of Japan says it is going to keep raising interest rates. It’s not going to the moon, but 3% for yen (and Japanese) interest rates is like going to the moon when it’s been 0% for 20 years. So, now, the yen carry trade is unwinding. . .. The original borrower borrows dollars to pay back the yen loan, swaps the yen and pays back the yen loan. What if you can’t borrow?
What if the bank says sorry, no soup for you. . .. Now, what do you do if you want to get out of the yen carry trade? You have to sell assets. So, you are going to sit there and make a lot less money or even lose money, or you are going to dump assets to get dollars to pay back the yen loan. They are both bad for the markets. It you have to sell assets, guess what? The price goes down, and other people have to sell assets. The next thing you know it’s a stampede, and everyone is running for the exit. This is not a few investment banks on Wall Street or a few hedge funds. This is the whole world getting out of the leveraged exchange rate engine that has been running the world for 30 years. That is the financial equivalent of all out nuclear war.”
Rickards goes on to explain, “Japan is the number one holder of US Treasuries. They have been selling Treasuries to get dollars to buy yen to prop up the yen. What happens when you sell Treasuries? US interest rates go up. Do you think the Trump Administration or Secretary of the Treasury want US interest rates to go up? . . .. Treasury Secretary Bessent called Japan and said hold on to your Treasuries. We will give you all the dollars you need with a swap line with the Federal Reserve. So, what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen. So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates. So, the carry trade does not unwind. So, the markets don’t collapse. . .. It is extremely dangerous . . .. You are trying to defend an exchange rate that probably can’t be defended, and it is just a matter of time before it breaks.”
Back in 2016, long before the central banks were buying gold hand over fist, Rickards told people to buy gold in his best-selling book “The New Case for Gold.” Back then, gold was a little more than $1,300 per ounce. With the price down to around $4,300 per ounce today, that looks like it was very good investment advice. We are nowhere near the high for gold, and Rickards predicts, “I think it’s going to the moon. When I say the moon, I mean $10,000 per ounce. We have had our correction. . .. We are now heading back up again, and it’s going to happen very quickly.”
https://usawatchdog.com/yen-carry-trade-blow-up-financial-equivalent-of-all-out-nuclear-war-jim-rickards/
It is cheap debt we need, just like we need cheap oil and coal and natural gas. Japan has disproportionately provided this cheap debt. If this goes away, the whole world certainly has a problem.
How can it survive? They have an aging and shrinking population. No or very few natural resources… I can’t believe that they made it this far! And a lot of industries are shrinking
I agree with you, and I live in Japan.
I would think the royalties on the SONY Walkman would have dried up by now.
But I look around me and I see a lot of apparently pointless, inefficient, and unproductive work being done. So I tell myself there must be more than this that I can’t see.
Reforms aimed at cutting costs and waste and improving productivity always seem like too little too late. And it’s always been this way. This is a very conservative country.
It’s as if keeping everyone busy, avoiding friction, and maintaining social harmony are prime focus of economic and political policy.
Gail… I’m sorry for all my dumb questions, but you have a way of explaining that is understandable. Can you explain carrytrade and this Japan thing for a person like myself with no finance experience? Huge thx.
Gail… please disregard my question above…. it looks like HHH below is breaking it down… I’m going to check out his explanation… thanks for everything you do to help us thru these crazy times.
Tim,
Only the Yen carry trade isn’t unwinding and gold isn’t going to the moon or $10,000. I’m fully aware of Rickards background.
The Yen took a extremely small breather in it’s devaluation. That is all. And markets don’t work like they (central bankers) tell you. Interest rate hikes don’t have the affect the say they do. If Japan hikes rates like they say they will. We will see the outflows of money from Japan accelerate. We will see the exact opposite of an unwind.
Nothing beside a US stock market crash with no rebound will stop the money flowing out of Japan. The central banks are powerless here. Their bank reserves swaps don’t matter here. They can swap reserves all day long and until the end of time and it doesn’t provide actual dollars where those dollars are needed.
There are a lot of guys like Rickards that count on people not knowing any better.
Yes, thank you. I wonder if there is a simple flow chart that describes how the money flows around and what forces tell it where to go?
It seems to me you have an excellent grasp of the situation, so I expect you have a flow chart or similar mental model in your head.
We laymen such as me and the guy who works in the gas station are handicapped by not having a clear picture. But your explanations are very helpful.
I don’t have a flow chart i can share.
But what i know is, rising interest rates forces money out of bonds. If Japan wants that money to stay they need to cut interest rates.
And nobody buys the short end of yield curve for the yield. The bills. Because of what the yield is. 3% on Japanese debt won’t attract money.
People buy the bills or the short term debt because it’s collateral. By raising interest rates you are forcing collateral to be repriced lower.
It therefore takes more collateral to secure a loan than it use to. Before you stupidly hiked rates.
Capital controls are what is needed. But they don’t want to be China.
Tim,
I sent a reply about 10hrs ago. But i see it never made it. Anyway.
No i don’t have a flow chart i can share.
What i do know is that when interest rates rise money flows out of bonds. If they want the money to stay in bonds they should be cutting interest rates.
Since the bills or short term debt are the collateral. Rate hikes reprice the value of collateral. It now takes more collateral to secure a loan than it did before they stupidly did rate hikes.
When i say the central banks don’t matter. What i mean is those swap lines. Once the BOJ receives it’s dollar denominated bank reserves. In order for those reverse to be lent into Japan to get dollars where they need to be the borrowers have to have collateral.
The actual swap means absolutely nothing. Swap lines, QE and all the other nonsense central banks do only increase inter-banking tokens. It’s not money unless commercial banks loan it out. And that isn’t how commercial banks operate anyway. Commercial banks take the collateral you have and expand their balance sheet by creating new credits. Commercials banks do not loan out existing money or deposits. They create new deposits or money every time they make a loan.
Tim,
I sent a reply about 10hrs ago. But i see it never made it. Anyway.
No i don’t have a flow chart i can share.
What i do know is that when interest rates rise money flows out of bonds. If they want the money to stay in bonds they should be cutting interest rates.
Since the bills or short term debt are the collateral. Rate hikes reprice the value of collateral. It now takes more collateral to secure a loan than it did before they stupidly did rate hikes.
When i say the central banks don’t matter. What i mean is those swap lines. Once the BOJ receives it’s dollar denominated bank reserves. In order for those reverse to be lent into Japan to get dollars where they need to be the borrowers have to have collateral.
The actual swap means absolutely nothing. Swap lines, QE and all the other nonsense central banks do only increase inter-banking tokens. It’s not money unless commercial banks loan it out. And that isn’t how commercial banks operate anyway. Commercial banks take the collateral you have and expand their balance sheet by creating new credits. Commercials banks do not loan out existing money or deposits. They create new deposits or money every time they make a loan.
Thanks for your efforts, HHH.
I was unaware of the details of the institutional yen carry trade: big Japanese financial groups holding Japanese government bonds or local T-bills. Instead of selling them, and using these “safe” Yen-assets as collateral in the global wholesale repo market to borrow actual U.S. Dollars or Eurodollars from international banking networks to invest abroad.—if I have it right now.
I guess we can call it the wholesale yen carry trade.
Post sometimes get hung up for hours here. If the algorithm flags a naughty word. Or if it contains several links. Then once or twice a day, Gail cleans out the box and liberates anything not too indecent.
Dr. D at TAE also has a lot to say (as usual) about this Rickards article:
““..what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen. So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates. So, the carry trade does not unwind. So, the markets don’t collapse ..”
Kind of. Remember, Rickards is essentially CIA. He’s their paid subcontractor. So he tells the truth carefully omitting and diverting certain things because sadly, he’s a smart guy. Yes, Yen carry can end things, but other enormous continental-blocs can make adjustments to that. Like: there are no rules, they can just negate a whole nation’s Bonds, or declare Greece-isn’t-in-default-ackshully. And do. Every time.
I haven’t dug in and it’s complicated AF, but Luongo says they’re putting the squeeze on Europe and the Eurodollar system. HOW does Europe get “Liquidity”? They as major banks, go to Japan and borrow at 0%. They can then invest in anything real at all and make infinity profit (technically in maths, divide by zero.) Shut off the INPUT and what happens? Here you go. Now the U.S. doesn’t have that problem. Nor does anyone who WORKS. We have actual products to sell. Only financial colonialists and their Empire have that problem. We dry up Europe’s liquidity but not our own – we can borrow our own currency and invest in Main Street, and are. That’s that. We are feverishly creating and capitalizing those small Main St banks.
““This is the engine of global economic growth.”
No, Jim, it is not. WORK is the engine of all growth. BORROWING is a parasite. It’s the Engine of Worldwide Casino SPECULATION, making SPECULATORS and financiers rich. That’s it. They get rich while working people don’t. In comparison, Trump’s 2 years here, lower (black) wages rose 5%. Rich people’s income rose 1%. The income gap is closing. Which is why people hate Trump. They want the opposite as show in their policies. They do not WANT Black People’s wages to rise. Or they would LIKE Trump and his policies, yes?
They hate the poors and the Proletariat, and hate any minute they get relief. Socialists always have.
Rickards doesn’t emphasize another thing: COLLATERAL. It’s all about COLLATERAL, which is why at first they could take Syria, but then only Ukraine was big enough, but then only Russia was big enough as COLLATERAL for their debts. But the Yen-Carry unwind is LEVERAGE, it’s COLLATERAL. At 0% you can leverage infinity-to-one. Let’s say it’s 1,000, or even 300:1. So every dollar of Yen you need to post 300 Yen in collateral to unwind now.
Right? That. Is the actual problem.
“It you have to sell assets, guess what? The price goes down, and other people have to sell assets.”
Yes, but not JUST assets, 1:1, which he points out is bad enough. Whoever has more LEVERAGE loses. Whoever has more COLLATERAL wins. That’s ARC: America, Russia, China. That’s people who do WORK. …And also why the administration is feverish for the U.S. to do Work again. We’ve been gutted by the same speculation for 50 years and it’s hard to reverse quickly. We still make A LOT of stuff though. Like Oil and Food are straight-up, we only add limping manufacturing to that. 2/3 are already sold.
““Japan is the number one holder of US Treasuries”
Japan is not. ENGLAND is. For reasons of their own. EUROPE is. They’ve been doing this to dick our interest rates for years, but we out-ran them.
That’s why these guys being energy blind is such a big problem.
When he says “work”, it’s actually “energy”.
When he says “collateral”, it’s actually “debt”.
He doesn’t know what he’s talking about, these analysis are all over the place because of that.
Thing is, Japanese debt can’t be borrowed at 0% anymore because debt, being collateral, must have substance and has a risk, and Japan’s lack of energy products, a result of the windfall of its industries due to China and to reduced industrial margins in general due to lower EROI, cannot provide such clean collateral anymore. They must raise rates. But doing so, it seems, ends a global scheeme of borrowing, which in fact worked as a leveler, taking from economies which had a lot to spare and redirecting it to economies lacking. It’s like a battery system, with a voltage analogy equal to Stephen Zarlega’s.
So, this broke, because Japan has nothing more to spare, this spring has dried, and for a time already.
Reality is, nothing can escape the effects of diminishing EROI and Net Energy.
So, was Rickards mission at that time ( early mid 2010s ) to offer ” the world ” an alternative to undesirable future threat when ~everyone engaged saving in CHNs fin instruments instead ?
Well, in the meantime / up to now ” new ” $Ts were made in various US synthetic debt instruments not mentioning ” the real ” sky rocketing tech -pun intended- IPOs etc.
In summary, Rickards was just a small fiddle player for the Agency given assigned a sub scenario which did not pan out. And now it’s of no longer importance as [ CHN owns everything ] of substance en masse anywayz.
“Richard Werner
Japan rates are in the process of shooting up. My research has shown rates follow economic growth & growth is driven by bank credit creation for the real economy. Bank credit growth has fully recovered, is close to 6% growth. Rates to catch up.”?
https://x.com/scientificecon/status/2084729000060948704?s=20
Thanks, Postkey.
Werner seems a bit more bullish on the yen’s future.
I wanted to read his recent Substack article but it’s behind the dreaded paywall.
Today, one of my old chickens died. The night was colder. August 15th is approaching, marking the beginning of noticeably shorter days. I woke up feeling sore all over. I slipped under an electric blanket and made myself some lemon balm tea.
My theory is that alcoholics and drug addicts are basically lacking energy, and that depression is, in some sense, a lack of energy. You need energy inputs to help the body overcome the effects of insufficient energy. Psychologists and psychiatrists miss this crucial point.
I’m not a doctor, and this is not medical advice, and I don’t know all your details, but…….. it could be your fascia.
Fascia is the thin web of connective tissue that wraps around your muscles, bones, and organs. When this tissue gets tight or dry from stress, cold, or hard work, it can pull on the body and cause full-body aches or stiffness when you wake up.
I get it myself now that I’m an oldster. It isn’t necessarily a disease, but a sign of normal aging.
What is Fascia?
It acts like a tight bodysuit under your skin.
It holds every muscle and organ in place.
It helps your body move smoothly.
Why You Feel Sore
Tightness: The tissue dries out and tightens while sleeping.
Stress: Mental or physical stress makes the tissue clamp down.
Overuse: Hard work or poor posture the day before strains the web.
Cold: Cold air makes the tissue stiffen up overnight.
How to Help It
Drink water: Fascia needs water to slide and move well.
Move gently: Light stretching or walking helps warm it up.
Use heat: A warm shower or bath relaxes the tight tissue.
Roll it out: Gentle foam rolling can ease the pull.
I’m sorry to hear about your old chicken. I am always sad when I lose someone close, either human or animal, and sometimes even plant.
The effects of lack of energy are overlooked. When you look closely at things you discover how everything is connected with energy.
Some people say it’s all in the mitochondria.
I don’t know about that, but I try to take coenzyme Q10 every day and get some sunshine when it’s available or find some other infrared source when it’s not. Infrared saunas or lamps are available, but I prefer to soak up the infrared from a real fire in winter. It feels so much better than a gas or electric heater does. And the pets love it.
Getting old affects us all, but I really think the summer heat has been too much for a lot of us this year. Let’s hope we recover as the cooler weather sets in.
One other important factor is our mental or psychological state. It is possible to depress ourselves into feeling physically ill or to worry ourselves sick.
Or we could be going through the male menopause. My doctor told me there was no such thing, but my early 50s were a very tough period. For some reason I’ve found the sixties much easier going. But maybe it’s because I make more of an effort to soak up the sun.
Electric blanket is an easy and flexible solution. Not much water needed, like for the bath, when there are droughts.
A good rub with nettles can be very good for muscular aches, MG.
That’s how I start every day!
But of course they can be added to one’s meals if such direct stimulation is a bit too much….
And don’t forget: a big glass of red wine keeps everything looking fine.
On tangent, it’s strange how drug addicts, even on the hard stuff like ” la horse ” can survive ( and occasionally work too ) for such long time, often many decades in on/off mode and some treatment in between. Lot of rockstars doing it almost non stop for two-three decades in a row since their late teenage years..
And then contrast-compare it w. another bunch of people [ signing off ] just from a single flue incident.
AI Overview The U.S. military fired two Hellfire missiles from a Navy helicopter into the engine room of a Panama-flagged cargo ship, the M/V Vela Nova, in the Gulf of Oman.
https://www.google.com/search?q=us+fires+on+ship&sca_esv=5293bfb2e794a01b&sxsrf=APpeQnuqzwIz1AMX7sf1Jrqr9wgzF02zRw%3A1786492294697&source=hp&ei=hrV7atW0J8HAkPIPyrzt-Ac&iflsig=ABILxe8AAAAAanvDlhwKTQI6l3CJq-m7Z_KpHR1P8OV8&oq=us+fires&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6Igh1cyBmaXJlcyoCCAAyCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBMgQQABgDMgsQABiABBixAxiDATIEEAAYAzIGEAAYAxgKMgQQABgDMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABEiJkgFQAFiMTHABeACQAQCYAYsBoAGTB6oBAzIuNrgBAcgBAPgBAZgCCaAC0gfCAhEQLhiDARjHARixAxjRAxiABMICERAuGIAEGLEDGIMBGMcBGNEDwgILEC4YgAQYxwEY0QPCAg4QLhiABBixAxjHARjRA8ICBRAuGIAEwgIIEAAYgAQYsQPCAg4QABiABBiKBRixAxiDAcICDhAuGIAEGMcBGK8BGI4FwgIIEC4YgAQYsQPCAg4QLhivARjHARiABBiOBcICCxAuGIAEGMcBGK8BmAMAkgcDMi43oAflTbIHAzEuN7gHzQfCBwcwLjEuNy4xyAcrgAgB&sclient=gws-wiz
Another day, more fighting, it seems.
“Terafab is a massive, planned semiconductor manufacturing megafactory in Grimes County, Texas, led by SpaceX and Tesla to produce over one terawatt of AI computing power annually.”
Is this a joke? How common is the names Grimes? She’s one of Elon’s baby mommas.
Yes, I noticed that.
Grimes is a northern English name as far as I know.
Ah yes: The surname Grimes is primarily of English and Norse-Viking origin. It derives from the Old Norse personal name Grímr (meaning “masked person,” “shape-changer,” or a moniker for the god Woden), or the Old English word grim meaning “fierce”. The “s” in Grimes functions as a patronymic meaning “son of Grim”.
Masked person, eh? Shape-changer? Perhaps Elon is not as he presents himself, although he comes over as far more authentic and honest than Gates or Thiel or Zuckerberg. Perhaps he really is the world’s most innovative high-functioning autist after all?
Dr. David Grimes of somewhere near Manchester is a mate of Dr. John Campbell of Carlisle. Grimes is an expert on vitamin D who has appeared several times on Campbell’s podcasts. In his blog, Grimes takes us back to the primeval ocean where the plankton began synthesizing it as a byproduct of
When plankton first evolved they had no predators and this remained so for 1,000my. Their numbers must have been much greater than today as it was not until the Cambrian explosion of more advanced sea creatures 550mya that predators appeared.
Although there was an absence of predators, plankton are surface dwelling and so they are in danger from damaging UV radiation from the Sun. Defence mechanisms must be necessary.
The first is “Diurnal Vertical Migration”. In order to avoid UV damage by day, plankton sink below the surface. By night they will return to the surface, hence the nocturnal fluorescence displays. This movement would appear to have been triggered by variation of sunlight, but it is now encoded in DNA and in the body clock. When taken out of the sea and transported to a laboratory without sunlight variation, diurnal vertical migration continues.
The second defence of plankton against damaging UV radiation is the synthesis of a sunscreen. This is the four-ringed steroid molecule 7-dehydrocholesterol (7-DHC), which is derived from squalene, a long-chain fatty acid also known as shark oil. Evolution created a long cascade of biochemical reactions (each step with its own enzyme) to finally produce the important squalene and 7-DHC.
7-DHC absorbs UV energy (UVB wavelength between 280 and 315 nanometres), and the energy splits a specific inter-atomic bond. This results in the molecule changing shape and becoming what we know as cholecalciferol, also as vitamin D3.
D3 is the form of vitamin D derived from plankton and animal sources. D2 is ergocalciferol, obtained from fungi. I will simply refer to vitamin D.
Plankton produced vitamin D 1,500mya, but it was simply a waste product as they had no use for it. It was not until the Cambrian explosion of new complex aquatic life-forms that vitamin D was to find its role in evolution…..
But that’s a long story.
http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2025/12/the-vital-role-of-vitamin-d-in-evolution.html
As I’ve been saying: militaries and government continuity plans have long intended the deployment of decentralized micro-grids. Perfect for technocracy and techno-libertarianism/anarchism. Anyway, here is an indication of Russia’s version of the US SMR push.
>> Shelf-M project being developed for Sovinoye gold deposit
Thursday, 14 September 2023
Rosatom’s mining division Atomredmetzoloto JSC and RAOS JSC have signed an agreement to cooperate on plans for a Shelf-M small nuclear power plant project at the Sovinoye gold deposit in Chukotka in Russia’s far east.
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Shelf-M-project-being-developed-for-Sovinoye-gold
I’ve said this stuff has been available for decades due to nuclear sub research. They agree and call that out (the company has been doing sub nuclear propulsion since the ’50s):
>>The Shelf-M reactor has been developed by NIKIET JSC based on its experience with marine nuclear reactor designs.
Yes, noted earlier to the same effect, as n-powered subs are almost designed specifically from the get go to be ” field operated ” also in the sense of ease of fuel cartridge replacement vs the procedure for conventional big NPPs on the shore..
Not fan of cross-posting, but here we go again taking over some ideas from those fine Surplus people. Don Stewart published interesting little AI summary about EROEI :
__
EROEI of Chinese coal to liquid fuel is 0.27 to 1.44
(depending on how one draws the boundaries)
EROEI of conventional oil is 25:1
EROEI of Canadian tar sands is 3:1 to 5:1,
depending on surface mining or steam applied underground
EROEI of fission nuclear energy is 40:1 to 75:1
EROEI of conventional wheat using synthetic nitrogen is 2.5 to 3.4
EROEI of organic wheat is 3.5 to 5.0
EROEI of slash and burn agriculture is 10:1 to 20:1
EROEI of alley cropping (trees plus crops) +(JR: NOT only) in the tropics is variable but high
__
My musings: Obviously the boundaries for each could be way wider in real life application. That CHNs coal-2-liquids can have lowish score and it’s ” not a problem ” because of the initial gargantuan resource base. While lets say that fission has got some additional systemic expense, so likely lower score in the end than quoted. Similarly, organic wheat is not exactly long term sustainable w.out further added layer compensatory ( soil health ) action etc. Past ” burn and slash ” early agro techniques evidently terraformed large section of the planted to much lower species abundance and longer term ecologic (in)stability.
..
.
__
Original thread: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/07/01/327-surplus-energy-economics/comment-page-2/#comment-52541
But we have a terrible time getting the price of uranium to rise high enough, for long enough, to incentivize more uranium production. Something goes wrong with this system. It takes years for uranium mines to be built.
Nothing’s wrong with Br. reante’s denuclearization/containment predictions, though…
Where is reante?
Haven’t seen any comments from him for days.
Also, Norman hasn’t been about for ages.
Hope they are both doing well.
I have Reante’s comments on “use prior moderation for all.” I haven’t seen any comments since. August 9. If he makes comments that don’t insult others, I will let them through.
I will have to check on the date that we last saw comments from Norman.
Norman was last here on July 11, which was about a month ago. I don’t know of any particular reason.
He was always calling “BS” about other people’s comments. Very rude.
Norman is active on Substack, where he published one article last week and another this week.
Gail, he’s also copied the Roadrunner Wile.E Coyote image you used recently.
It’s all genuine Norman. Lots of references to Trump, Hitler, and voters being stupid. Like many of us as we get older, he’s recycling the same old thoughts—which is fine if you like those kind of thoughts. But don’t bother reading his stuff for new insights.
https://normanpagett.substack.com
Nice to see he’s still active.
Which is more than can be said for Keith. We haven’t heard from him since the LA fires last year. I hope he’s OK.
As for Fast Eddy, he stopped posting on Substack on April 18, a gesture he called The Great Unplugging. Before that, he had been posting lists of books to read while waiting for the end of days.
I guess he was not getting as much traction as he wanted, although he was attracting a lot more views and comments than Norman. Or else he was getting bored and had nothing new to say, knew he was merely recycling the same old thought, and decided it was more productive to go Kangaroo hunting or surfing. Perhaps he’ll be back if he feels he genuinely has something to share.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com
The Chinese Coal to Liquid fuel number is exactly what I would expect. The Germans worked this out during the World Wars, so its nothing new. Perhaps it will help the Chinese later, but for now… does it really help move the needle for Asia?
That nicely covers the video from the China hyping guy earlier.
CTL and GTL are, just BS like Nuclear Fusion .
I am afraid you are right. They are too expensive to scale up. Buyers cannot afford them.
If you are poor enough, Socialism seems to sound good, until you see it in action.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/south-america-just-rejected-socialism-so-why-north-america-buying-it
South America Just Rejected Socialism. So Why Is North America Buying It?
Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, El Salvador — all of these Latin American countries had explicitly socialist, far-left, or Marxist governments that they rejected within the last three years:
Bolivia. Last October, voters ended two decades of rule by a party named the Movement Toward Socialism.
Chile. In December, voters chose José Antonio Kast over a Communist Party candidate.
Honduras. In November, they voted out the democratic socialist party of President Xiomara Castro.
Ecuador. Rejected the heirs of Rafael Correa’s socialist project for the second time in two years.
El Salvador. In 2024, the party of former Marxist guerrillas that governed for a decade — during which the country became the murder capital of the world — was wiped from the legislature entirely. Zero seats.
Peru. Two weeks ago, Keiko Fujimori was sworn in after defeating a leftist who served in the cabinet of Pedro Castillo, the Marxist president Peruvians impeached and imprisoned.
Argentina. The left-wing governments that ran the country for most of two decades nationalized the oil company, the airline, and private pension funds. Inflation passed 200%. In 2023 voters elected Javier Milei, who campaigned on reversing all of that.
Lol, you have to keep it in perspective, ZH is supposedly an ~anarcho – capitalist rooted outlet, there you have it in term of objectivity ( unbiased ). And picking just last one, that Milei expert brought the country into another crisis..
Basically, the tug of war ( both passionate left / right ) inside Central-South America in never ending between these two political poles. Not mentioning the perennial meddling from the northern big brother, always moving the goal post, hah.
__
Some counter arguments on the Milei plan post early shock therapy success here, written by a Davos guy w. ClubMed aristocratic pedigree : https://www.independent.org/article/2026/05/25/milei-economy-struggling/
I expect if a growing supply of cheap oil and other fossil fuels were available, there would be many fewer problems.
Excerpts:
One problem with raising expectations, as a government such as Javier Milei’s did in Argentina, is that when things don’t look as bright as one would like, people begin to lose faith in the ideas. Much emphasis was placed at the beginning on the superiority of the libertarian ideas the president professes, and they were proclaimed with such forceful, aggressive assertiveness that, even though he himself made clear it would take time and sacrifices to clean up the disaster he inherited, people became convinced of the inevitability of progress. . .
Certain markets have been liberalized, but several problems continue to impede Argentina’s takeoff. One of them is inflation.
Yes, government spending has been dramatically reined in. Still, inflation persists because a lot of money has been and continues to be printed by a central bank that Milei had promised to liquidate, and because a large part of the government’s obligations that were previously on the central bank’s balance sheet have become the treasury’s debt. . . Since the government reneged on its promise to replace the peso with the dollar and to get rid of the central bank, the monetary base has quadrupled. . .
Because things continue to look shaky, investment money is not pouring in as the optimists thought it would (except in mining and energy, to some extent). A lot of money has gone into government bonds, increasing the administration’s obligations and interest payments, thereby forcing it to print pesos rather than invest in productive projects. This is one reason why, in the last couple of years, industrial production has suffered the second worst drop after Hungary.
Argentina’s population has to cope with the cold days. A growing population needs more energy to get through these cold periods.
Yes, as Jr stresses, let us not be carried away. It’s an opinion piece from zerohedge after all. China seems to be doing just fine under socialism. I dare say that any somewhat democratic place, without external interventions, will drift towards social democracy.
What’s kind of funny is that the summary critique from that ( linked ) Davos guy in some areas actually blames Milei for NOT going full throttle in these shock-doctrine ” reforms ” , i.e. as becoming complete globo – protectorate instead.
Which would (given local conditions) ousted him in year one or so.. by another ( retro-guard ) immediate revolution uprising.
As I see it, it was this kind of drop in household borrowing that pushed the US economy toward recession in 2008. I don’t think the article points this out. Look at the jpg file I linked.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/despite-record-surge-subprime-car-loan-originations-us-household-debt-dropped-q2-first
Despite Record Surge In Subprime Car Loan Originations, US Household Debt Dropped In Q2: First Since COVID
Something unprecedented happened in the second quarter: aggregate household debt balances declined by $13 billion, a 0.1% decline from Q1. Balances stood at $18.8 trillion, up $4.6 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. But the reason why we say it was unprecedented, is that the Q2 drop was the first quarterly decline in total household debt since the second quarter of 2020, when the US economy was gripped by the covid lockdown shock leading to a historic deleveraging.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/total%20debt%20compsition.jpg
The article suggests that there is a temporary reporting problem, causing the apparent reduction in lending:
According to the NY Fed, the decline was “due to a temporary gap in the reporting of mortgages on credit reports due to a transfer of servicing.” Meanwhile, balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $13 billion, marking the 17th consecutive quarterly increase. Outstanding HELOC balances now total $459 billion, $142 billion above the low reached in 2022 Q1.
“Indeed. US credit creation has been strong. “?
https://x.com/scientificecon/status/2084736480216555978?s=20
r ↑ ?
I have a question. If we are indeed seeing demand destruction due to a very low threshold of affordability, why are we seeing record gains in the stock market indexes and also in publicly traded corporate earnings reports?
Earning reports are based on estimates of how profitable recent investments are going to be. These indicate great profitability, especially in sectors supporting AI. Main street sectors aren’t doing as well. If the debt bubble holding up the AI sector starts to go down, or if the group starts issuing a whole lot more stock, this effect could start to disappear.
Also, stocks in the AI sector have gotten themselves added to major indices. Quite a bit of funding is through the 401(k) contributions. These often follow the major indices. If the indices seem to be doing well, they jump in and reinforce the trend.
Around three or four years ago i was lifting in the gym. Myself and a young 20’s something guy. It was tax season and he owed taxes. This shocked me, so i asked what he did for a living. He worked full time for wendys. Still made no sense, so i asked him again how could he owe taxes. Oh he gets something like 400 in disibility payments a month. Lives at home with his mom. I think you’d be shocked how much of this has been going on since covid. Dude was def not disabled.
Could have been BSing. A lot of reddit day-traders say they work at Wendy’s. It’s a meme.
He wasn’t. I don’t watch much TV but i’ve seen ads. Get paid to take care of grandma! Like i said, you guys would be shocked how much of this is going on. 2020 was a financial crisis. Gen Z gets to feel how i felt graduating into 2008, except with more gas lighting. Also i think you’d be shocked to learn how many desk “jobs” in healthcare are do nothing BS
I had a doctor visit recently. The inefficiency was breathtaking. Could have fired everyone but the doctor and even he was useless. It would have been better to just post a sign that reads “You’re on your own!”
and yet no one can afford it. They’re warehousing people and paying them wayyyyyy to much (won’t tell you how i know). Its how democrats reward their followers. Also they discriminate in hiring via gender and ethnicity.
>> and yet no one can afford it.
If you do work, it’s an arm and a leg. But if you don’t work, it’s 100% free. Not joking. I don’t know if that applies to all states, or only liberal ones, but Medicaid pays and it keeps the hospital systems solvent where I am currently located, which has a very large Hispanic immigrant (and descendants) population.
On topic and something to consider:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/dowd-us-disabilities-hit-all-time-high-37-million-july-23-feb-2021
I don’t believe there is a market, or anything resembling what once was. Automated AI trading with things like Blackrock’s Aladdin … which is now ancient relative to what “we” have today, enables every opportunity to be sensed, and then turned back on what would have once been an expected outcome.
And now we have….
“Harvest now, decrypt later”
This is in preparation for Quantum AI, which appears to be viable, and is expected to be in place by 2031. This plays out be giving everything value at a later date… for now. It infers there is no market.
There is few minutes old ( fresh ) video w. Ch. Martenson, basically claiming the same as some [ whale ] institutional investors are pro-actively calming the futures markets 24/365 aka ” rational ” shorting in terms of ongoing apparent crisis in the region has been canceled, does not exist now.
So, naturally ( me ) asking what is the next step, 30-60% command like economy from now on.. ? That’s how you get further yrs and decades out of it perhaps, because everybody will be doing their volatility ” suppression part ” incl. CHN and her circle / loose alliance.
This is one of Chris Martenson’s recent videos, but I am not sure it is the right one.
https://peakprosperity.com/record-high-stocks-federal-debt-square-off-against-oil-gold-japan/
This is an interview. Do you have a link to the one you are talking about?
Oh, sorry, I though, the most recent just pops up automatically for you..
here: (h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oQ9bLdOT7w
titled : ” BREAKING: US OIL RESERVE CRASHES TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1983 – w/ Economist Chris Martenson ”
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The intro oil / energy talk goes for few mins, then politics, and resumes again at ~19min mark ..
Thanks!
Quantitative Easing is done primairly through Black Rock directly into the Stock Market. People see this stock inflation and invest all they have on them, further increasing stock valuation. Then, the world sees this and also invest in the US Stock Market, crashing their local markets and currencies. This is one of the ways to prevent deflation in the American economy and the world along with it, but everything has its limits. Inflation is also desirable because it devalues the debt.
I expect that there are a lot of different forces working together to keep the stock market going up. This could be one of them.
Yes, they’re relentless. We’re in “fake economy” territory, where classical laws don’t apply anymore, where everything is smoke and mirrors, and where energy is bringing it all down.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/could-the-crashing-yen-trigger-hyperinflation-in-the-u-s/
L… thanks for this explanation…
Here is a good article on what it takes to contribute to the U.S. shale revolution, well by well; it’s got all the ingredients to have made the miracle occur except the main one…
Borrowed money. The “revolution” would have been a minor uprising except for about $1.7 trillion dollars invested in it, most of it borrowed. $450 billion already lost, gone forever, another $225 B of long-term debt still outstanding. Then there is all that plugging, and decommissioning liability…more billions.
So, it remains to be seen whether the revolution will make money or not. I don’t think this debt will ever be paid back making the entire uprising highly unprofitable for private enterprise. But fun, right? Like a video game. Every day new news, more reasons to keep the party going forever.
America survives on debt.
BTW, there is enough 5 1/2 in. OD production casing in today’s tight oil and tight gas wells in America to go around the world 18 times, like the rings of Saturn.
https://wirescrossed.substack.com/p/bulk-ingredients-of-the-shale-revolution
Mike never disappoints .
It is not just “borrowed money.” It is “borrowed money at a low interest rate.” The low interest rate, together with optimistic estimates of how much might ultimately be produced, make the system work.
Venezuela won’t flood the market with millions of barrels…
The country still has just 2 active rigs.
Yawn–Yawn
Baker Hughes doesn’t seem to pick up rig counts for Venezuela. The counts have been very low for a while. I didn’t look back further.
We are burning the candle at both ends: One end represents the physical: oil, top soil, minerals, fresh water, fish and now with AI, secondary power derived from oil in the form of electricity. The other end of the candle is the financial: artificial, a man-made construct. But both ends are burning. Either one can do us in. It’s just a matter of how fast the candle gets consumed.
I am still trying to figure out all this “tokenization” of assets by the “government.” Miles Harris has been following this on his YT and Substack. Also Catherine Austin Fitts. Since I am not a financial expert, but used to be upper middle class (now maybe just middle class trying to hang on) I figure that the government is directing its attack on those of us who have some assets but are too dumb to put the pieces together. The lower class doesn’t have any assets for the government to seize so they probably don’t even care what the govt does vis a vis these proposed tokens. As long as any form of currency/debt can buy the necessities, these exotic payment schemes are meaningless to them.
Miles Harris to me implies that since the current fractional reserve debt-based fiat currency system is approaching the end of its viability in terms of traditional bonds and treasuries as collateral to finance more debt, the government has to pull a fast one and find new ways to service its debt. Enter the new shell game: Tokenization. Stablecoins led by Tether which is backed by a US dollar “equivalent,” is the new teaser, now that BTC seems to be getting a bit tired.
The problem is with the debt comprised mostly of bonds, derivatives, and off ledger liabilities; the middle class (rightly or wrongly) may be sensing that the dollar is going to be toast. They understand that just the searchable govt liabilities are now $40T, and the long term 10 -30 year treasury rates are creeping up. The central banks are buying more gold. I see gold as the segway to make people think that the banks are being “responsible” and disciplined. Presently physical assets like your home, land farm, auto too, are valued by what you can sell them for in cash and how much property tax you must pay to own them.
Gold sits there but it makes people think “oh the central banks are now considering gold as a tier 1 asset on the par with US Treasuries so they are realizing that real assets are the future. Gold. Farmland. Housing etc. But the amount of gold in the world is miniscule to the global debt and currency flows. So gold isn’t going to save either the middle class or the few “stackers” who smugly think they are immune from the debt crisis because they have a few coins.
I also wonder if BTC is a psyop to condition the people into thinking that electronic digits somehow can have value. This leads into tokens having value since the value of your house and car will have “value” reassigned to them through tokens. Of course, your house and car are obvious physical property. So therefore you will think, tokens must be legit.
These tokens of course are a form of digital money, which along with digital ID, will allow total government control.
Even Wal-Mart is now replacing the former price stickers on the shelves with miniature electronic screens which can set the price of goods, or rather reset them, before you even get your goods in your cart to the checkout counter. The facial recognition cameras at the entrance and your digital ID might identify you (biometrics) as a middle-class consumer and therefore you will pay a higher price for an item versus one who is on Medicaid. It’s called dynamic pricing.
Miles Harris seems to say (to me at least) that tokens are a deception to extend the life and reach of the government debt binge.
In 1950’s Cuba, the communist government officials suddenly arrived at the door of private businesses and announced, “you don’t own your business anymore. It now belongs to the government.” The US government won’t do that. They’ll say something like we are calculating the value of your business, or your home, or your car. Don’t worry we aren’t confiscating it, we are just now valuing them with tokens instead of dollars, and you can still borrow like you have always done by pledging your home or business as collateral just as you have always done when you took out a home equity loan, only it will use tokens. But by the government tokenizing everything, has the ability to pledge as collateral EVERYTHING in sight, and thus will be able to secretly run up its debt even higher. You may think your house is valued at 100 of these new tokens, but the government can suddenly block the use of tokens and just like in Cuba, the value of your house will have been suddenly electronically confiscated via this form of digital money. The power of the internet. They don’t even have to go house to house.
Indeed, Miles Harris suggests silver has added a new layer of value. As we all know, silver is (was) a monetary metal and it is also an industrial metal. But Miles suggests that it will take on an additional role as a form of collateral which might “increase” its value, a sort of positive feedback loop just like with pension funds, IRAs and 401Ks whose values are increasing because the fiduciaries have to buy the stock indices in the plans, but because the stock prices (NAV) go higher, more passive inflow of funds occurs, creating a positive feedback loop, regardless of the underlying value of the stock.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-209612499
Yes, BTC was certainly an early psyop for the next era / agenda, leading to mass adoption of tokenization like practices. The ~few fanboyz of BTC craze have been rewarded handsomely, very similar to channeling on purpose ” new wealth ” to specif desirable high-tech industries when about to maturing up phase, so then the laymen investing public at large is first made aware of the next mega trend, and also in next steps the whole econ universe adopts this new wealth pillar as an pre-aproved domain entering the legacy system as its core part from that point on.
As to an antidote for tokenization hard to tell..
If we are about to get several of such shaped decades in the near future and not systemic ( partial ) collapse sequence at all, it will be likely impossible to shield from it.
If you do dedollarize you will be protected from tokenization. For a while.
Yes, thanks, but as you know ” local govs ” aka puppets will always try to accommodate it immediately via various ” lite ” interventions into exchange rates and or conditioned – allowed max for cash transactions, etc. It’s all just one giant coordinated gang against the single individual after-all.
As we debated earlier, ” long term ” escape up to this point was real estate, but that will be likely either curbed ( taxed ) or crash severely on itself anyway, perhaps getting even lost-locked up when suddenly new cold war ed. arrangement of antagonistic blocks appears again.
The link is to Why Your Assets Are Becoming More Important Than Your Income by Miles Harris
Instead of relying only on money creation, it is expanding the pool of acceptable collateral – and tightening control over the assets beneath it.
We now seem to live in the Wild, Wild West of debt creation. Added debt used to pull the economy forward. At this point, I am not sure the situation is quite that way. Too many things seem likely to go wrong.
very interesting Hubbs
I asked Google:
There have been major heatwaves in Europe, the US west, and East Asia this summer. Have they been almost simultaneous? Are they record highs? And what could have contributed to them?
Google’s response:
The intense heatwaves sweeping across Europe, the US West, and East Asia this summer have largely occurred in overlapping, persistent waves since late May and June, shattering historical temperature marks and fueled by a combination of high-pressure domes, record ocean warmth, emerging El Niño conditions, and human-driven climate change. [BBC]
Simultaneous timing and record highs
Overlapping Waves: The extreme heat did not happen on a single synchronized day, but rather unrolled concurrently across the Northern Hemisphere through June and July, with Western Europe enduring multiple successive heat surges, and simultaneous heat alerts gripping parts of North America and East Asia.
Broken Records: Western Europe recorded its hottest June-July period in history, beating previous highs set in 2022. Numerous national and regional maximum temperature records fell across parts of Central and Southern Europe, parts of the US West faced severe heat domes, and parts of East Asia—including Japan and South Korea—reported extreme spikes over 40°C alongside thousands of heatstroke hospitalizations.
Persistent High-Pressure Domes: Strong, stationary atmospheric ridges locked hot air over these major regions, causing intense air compression and stopping overnight cooling.
Record Ocean Temperatures: Global sea surface temperatures reached historic highs, reducing the cooling capacity of marine air currents moving onshore.
Developing El Niño: Emerging El Niño climate patterns in the Pacific added thermal energy and warped global jet stream tracks.
Drought and Soil Feedback: Unusually dry soils in regions like Europe lost their natural moisture-evaporation cooling effect, redirecting all incoming solar energy into sensible heat in the lower atmosphere.
Long-Term Climate Change: Decades of greenhouse gas emissions have drastically amplified the baseline probability and intensity of these multi-continent heat extremes.
Good, I’m learning something!
I can’t disagree with the persistent high-pressure domes bit. I’ve been simmering under one since early July and have gotten a wonderful suntan. But how do these domes stop overnight cooling?
Google:
High-pressure domes act like a heavy lid on the atmosphere, stopping overnight cooling through three direct mechanisms:
1. Trapping Solar Heat
Air Sinks: High pressure forces air downward from high in the atmosphere.
Air Compresses: Sinking air squeezes together under its own immense weight.
Air Warms: Compression raises air temperatures directly, creating a massive pool of daytime heat that takes hours to dissipate.
2. Killing the Wind
Stagnant Air: Strong high-pressure systems weaken local wind patterns.
No Marine Layers: Lack of wind blocks cool coastal breezes from moving inland.
No Air Exchange: Without wind, the hot air mass just sits in place over cities instead of being replaced by cooler surrounding air.
3. Suppressing Clouds
Dry Air: Sinking air dries out the atmosphere, completely clearing the skies.
Baking the Ground: Clouds usually shield the earth, but cloudless skies allow intense, uninterrupted daytime sunlight to bake soils and asphalt.
Creating a Thermal Blanket: The baked ground absorbs massive thermal energy during the day, which it slowly radiates back out all night, keeping surface temperatures dangerously high until sunrise.
Let’s dig a bit deeper: Re. 1; You say high pressure forces air downward, leading to compression, as the air squeezes together under its own weight. So you seem to be implying that high pressure causes high pressure. Is that correct?
I agree that Compression raises air temperatures directly. But how big is the difference between high pressure and low pressure in the ground-level atmosphere in the summertime at mid-latitudes? I think the difference between a typical high-pressure system and a low-pressure system is roughly 30 to 50 hPa (millibars). Roughly how much of a temperature rise would result from this amount of compression?
The temperature rise resulting from this pressure difference is less than 0.1ºC at ground level, meaning horizontal pressure differences alone have a negligible direct effect on surface temperature.The heat associated with high-pressure systems actually comes from sinking air (subsidence) through the vertical column of the atmosphere, not from horizontal compression at the surface.
Clarifying the “High Pressure Causes High Pressure” Loop:
You caught an important nuance. High pressure does not magically cause itself; it is driven and sustained by mechanical forcing from high up in the atmosphere.
[Google AI then produces several pages of explanatory text with equations, which we’ll leave out of this post.]
Final answer:
Horizontal compression along the ground from a 35 hPa pressure difference results in a direct temperature rise of less than 0.1ºC due to immediate thermal mixing and radiation in our open atmosphere. The true heat of a summer high-pressure system is caused by vertical subsidence, where air sinking from high altitudes warms by 10ºC per kilometer of descent.
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I don’t know about the rest of you, but I learned something there. If I wasn’t busy with other things, I could go on talking to Google or Grok or one of the other AIs all day. They are far better conversation partners for discussing most subjects than most of the people I interact with are. If I have to spend my old age living alone and isolated, at least as long as the electricity and the internet and the data centers are still working and I have enough money to pay for them, at least I will always have “somebody” to chat with.
The major advantage of that is I won’t have to walk down the street talking to myself while the people who notice me coming along cross to the other pavement or hide behind garden hedges to avoid me. 🙂
Thanks Tim, that stuff about high-pressure domes is fascinating. It’s refreshing to see a systems explanation of the problem as opposed to just blaming one or two molecules.
The rabbit hole I’ve started to go down is whether or not the earth’s core fluctuates in temperature, thus causing warming at the surface.
To fluctuate in temperature, some heat has to go in or out. Presumably it can go down an insignificant amount, permanently, whenever there is a massive volcanic eruption. I don’t think we have had any in 70,000 years +.
Yep, there is still some radioactive material in the core.
Here is what the search function came back with.
“Does the temperature in the earths core fluctuate?
Yes, the temperature in the Earth’s core does fluctuate. The inner core’s temperature is estimated to be around 5,200 degrees Celsius (9,392 degrees Fahrenheit), and it is believed to be partially deformable and undergoing viscous changes. These fluctuations are influenced by various factors, including the planet’s rotation, the composition of core elements, and the ongoing radioactive decay of elements within the core and mantle. The temperature of the Earth’s core is a critical factor in understanding the planet’s geodynamic processes and the dynamics of its tectonic plates.”
I tried reading the referenced papers, but they didn’t elaborate further. Instead they kept throwing in man-made global warming whenever they had the chance which makes them difficult to read.
“The inner core’s temperature is estimated to be around 5,200 degrees Celsius”
Given the age of the Earth, the core should have cooled down by now. What’s stopping it?
” Iron-nickel alloy is defined as a combination of iron and nickel that possesses unique magnetic characteristics and low thermal expansion coefficients, with applications benefiting from its high resistance to environmental attacks. ”
So, perhaps translating into temp stability of the core, especially when supposedly in solid state at that.
OK, the core might fluctuate but 3000 km of mantle will prevent it from changing temperatures at the surface (I replied earlier thinking of the rock not too far the surface). The whole thing is ultimately heated by radioactive decays.
For the core temperature to change, energy still has to be exchanged. But all sources of energy might be large but are also very steady.
I think the AIs are programmed to add something about “man-made global warming being the cause of all our inclement weather” or “vaccines are good for you and save billions of lives every week” or “transgenderism is a natural variation of human diversity, characterized by an individual’s deeply felt gender identity differing from their sex assigned at birth” whenever possible. It’s like the adds that pop up on a lot of websites. If you need to use the site in question, you grit your teeth and soldier on.
I never thought much about the Earth’s core, but off the top of my head, there are a few things to consider.
How do we know it’s 5,200ºC down there? Has anyone managed to stick a thermometer down that far?
It’s a big core. Is the temperature the same throughout the core, or does it vary significantly?
When we speak of the core, what are we speaking of: Is the core solid or liquid? Actually, it’s both. It is split into two parts: an outer core made of hot liquid iron and nickel, and an inner core made of a solid iron-nickel ball. The inner core stays solid despite extreme heat because of massive planetary pressure.
Is the insulation effect of the mantle enough to slow down heat loss from the core to the point where it is 5,200ºC today?
Are there any things that are heating the core, thus counterbalancing the loss of heat via the mantle? Possibly radioactive decay of long-lived nuclides . Or heating from the Earth’s solid core rotating inside the Sun’s magnetic field? Or heating from continuing gravitational contraction of the core, even after all these billions and billions of years?
Google tells me:
The Earth’s core stays hot in a cold Universe because it is exceptionally well-insulated by thousands of kilometers of rocky mantle, and it generates its own heat to slow down its cooling process.The planet is steadily cooling down, but the process takes billions of years because the internal heat engines generate about 20 to 30 terawatts of power, counterbalancing a significant portion of the heat lost to space.
And:
Your hypothesis about radioactive decay is entirely correct. Roughly 50% of the Earth’s total internal heat is continuously generated by the radioactive decay of long-lived unstable nuclides.
The heavy hitters providing this nuclear heat are: Uranium-238, Thorium-232, Potassium-40, and Uranium-235.
While the majority of these elements are lithophile (“rock-loving”) and reside primarily in the Earth’s mantle and crust, trace amounts of radioactive potassium-40 trapped in the core, combined with the immense radioactive heat radiating from the lower mantle, severely restrict how fast the core can lose its warmth.
What about core shrinkage:
Your intuition regarding gravitational contraction is also accurate, but it functions through a specific ongoing mechanism: compositional differentiation and latent heat release.
The Earth is not physically shrinking in volume anymore, but the core is experiencing internal “gravitational sorting.”
Google didn’t think the rotation of the core within the Sun’s magnetic field was a significant source of heating. I suppose that’s just as well, as we wouldn’t want to live on a totally molten planet, would we? Imagine how much it would wobble when rotating like a raw egg does when you try to spin it?
Yesterday, I called a friend from the neighbouring village to have a chat. He told me that he had attended the funeral of the son of the village’s leading volunteer firefighter. The funeral lasted two hours in the scorching heat.
He died of pancreatic cancer at the age of 37. He had two children, was unmarried, had a mortgage, and an unfinished house. In a way, that man was spared from having to face the hell he was living in.
Who knows what awaits us?
Mormon influencer Chandler Hendry has passed away after a fatal crash in Utah… he was only 27.
https://www.tmz.com/2026/08/10/chandler-david-hendry-dead/?adid=share-tw
MG> I presume you somewhat knew the young guy, could you describe his physiognomy roughly ? My hunch is that most pancreatic candidates are usually of the typus ala recently departed R. Perkins, i.e. very lean kind of drought out bodies already, also perhaps of a bit smaller stature, that’s a tell being inside that [ category at risk ] so to speak..
I don’t remember him, but I found an article about his death with two photos. Grok describes him based on these photos as:
Average to solid/stocky (medium-to-heavier) build, not lean or highly muscular.
From the photos on the page (a full-body black-and-white shot of him standing beside a fire truck in a short-sleeved t-shirt and shorts, plus a closer portrait):
He has a fuller face and overall solid frame rather than a slim, athletic, or ripped look.
In the standing pose (one leg casually crossed, hand on hip), his torso and limbs appear average-to-stocky for a man in his mid-to-late 30s—neither skinny nor heavily overweight, but with some natural fullness rather than defined muscle.
Build looks practical/everyday rather than gym-sculpted or especially powerful.
This matches a typical “regular guy / solid working-man” physique rather than ectomorph (slim), mesomorph (athletic/muscular), or extreme endomorph.
Thanks, even if it did not pan out at all, or he was an ” outlier ” for the more statistically predestined body-type and the disease.
Google searches for “Medical Emergency” skyrocketing in the UK (again).
https://trends.google.com/explore?geo=GB&date=all&q=medical%2520emergency
Same in the US with a slight 4 month lag .
https://trends.google.com/explore?geo=US&date=all&q=medical%2520emergency
Both these trends suggest we’re a lock for “DARK WINTER” .
Another western hemisphere appetizer. American oil company sends equipment to Greenland without danish approval.
https://www.rt.com/news/644086-trump-oil-greenland-annexation/
Interesting, perhaps confirming our recent thread-bet about Greenland becoming more of an oily province not exclusively rare earths domain as drummed up by msm previously..
if the RT link doesn’t work try this :
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a73392621/trump-greenland-oil-nato/
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260810-tensions-in-the-arctic-greenland-issues-sharp-rebuke-to-trump-linked-oil-company
From RT = Russian Times
Crude ambitions: Has the US started the annexation of Greenland?
A Trump-linked oil company has shown up on the Danish territory without an invitation
Less than two weeks ago, a Danish tugboat towed a cargo ship into port at Nerlerit Inaat, 450 kilometers above the Arctic circle on Greenland’s east coast. The cargo ship, operated by a company called Permagreen, unloaded an excavator and 15 containers of equipment, before leaving the following day, according to Danwatch, a Danish investigative journalism outlet.
A Permagreen spokesperson told Danwatch that the company was hired by the Texas-based Greenland Energy Company to deliver “some machinery and equipment that will support their oil exploration” in the region of Jameson Land.
The Greenland Energy Company had no permission to deliver the equipment, Greenland’s Energy Ministry said in a press release, adding that the company has still not been granted the necessary permits to drill in Jameson Land, a wetland area protected by the international Ramsar Convention. . .
Greenland Energy believes that $1 trillion worth of crude oil may lie beneath the Jameson Land Basin. The company plans to spend $60 million on an exploratory well, with the project to be expanded “once the results of the first have been analysed.”
But oil has not been found in previous explorations of Greenland.
“2 million acres in the Jameson Basin of unexplored hydrocarbon resources”
This area was never explored according to CEO Robert Price the barrels are there.
Multibillions of barrels
This could literally extend the kicking of the can down the road.
Perhaps it depends on the fraseology..
At this time one could assume IT HAD TO BE pre- scanned briefly by some submarine ( and or AUVs ) already before committing the real exploration fleet, which they are about to perform momentarily.
Also given the political(&econ?) activation ( of POTUS ) and USgovs in recent weeks / months on the case.
An excuse to send an armed US protection team or impose sanctions on the Danes if they attempt to seize the containers, or deny access to them?
Permagreen, such a nice eco-friendly name.
Greenland Oil: 13 Billion Barrels Sounds More Impressive Than It Is
A Texas oil company plans to drill an exploratory well in Jameson Land in eastern Greenland next winter. The area has been of geological interest for decades, and estimates suggest that several structures combined could potentially contain around 13 billion barrels of oil.
That sounds spectacular. There is even talk of oil worth $1 trillion.
But some perspective is needed.
To begin with, these are not proven oil reserves. The 13 billion barrels are an estimate of what might be geologically present. No deep exploration well has ever been drilled in Jameson Land to establish how much oil is actually present in the rock formations, let alone what proportion of it could be technically and economically recovered.
That is precisely what this first exploratory well is intended to find out.
But even if, for the sake of argument, we assume that all of the estimated 13 billion barrels could be recovered, the scale remains interesting. The world currently consumes around 100 million barrels of oil per day.
Thirteen billion barrels therefore represent roughly 130 days of global oil consumption. Just over four months.
In reality, only a proportion would be recoverable. If, for example, 25 percent could ultimately be recovered, that would leave around 3.25 billion barrels: enough for approximately 32 days of global consumption at current levels.
Of course, that is not how an oil field works. A field is developed and produced over decades. Even a major Greenland oil project producing, say, 500,000 barrels per day would add only around half a percent to current global oil supply.
And that is precisely what puts the story into perspective.
We are talking about a remote Arctic region where billions of dollars might eventually have to be invested in drilling, infrastructure, transport and production. All of that for an oil resource that, even if the most optimistic geological estimate proves correct, remains limited on a global scale.
Zip at C and E
The issue is that it could be ” easily ” multiples of that size stated as 13BBO ( and from it realistic 1/x fraction ). If I re-call it correctly the NorthSea in total was something ala ” 50-50 ” aka ~50BBO real burnable oilz ( and natgas ) gotten out in ~50yrs effort..
Or not.
If it’s useful geopolitically or economically, then we should just take it. Realpolitik. 50,000 people there – what are they going to do? Not saying it’s “right”, but … since when do we humans have any moral standards when it comes to survival?
Only when the moral standards help to get them what they want.
Guerra interminable.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/guerra-interminable
A detailed look at what the interminable war is doing to the oil supply.
The last few paragraphs
With the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia becoming increasingly entrenched, we are heading toward the precipice. It doesn’t seem like Trump will easily get himself out of the mess he’s created, and I suspect Iran is well aware of the US administration’s weakness.
What will no longer save us in the future is the decrease in oil imports from China . The drastic drop in imports during the months of April-July cannot continue much longer.
According to last month’s STEO , China’s consumption has barely declined by 700,000 b/d (see table below) in Q2 2026, while its imports have fallen by more than 4 million b/d. Forecasts point to a normalization by Q4 2026, which should lead to a recovery in imports (or a complete depletion of strategic inventories).
What will happen now?
The strange Yen bailout the US did, to try to help prevent a world financial crisis.
https://research.santiagocapital.com/p/the-circular-bailout?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3583949&post_id=210373094&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=222em&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
The Circular Bailout
Washington bought yen to protect the Treasury market, and protected the Treasury market to protect everyone. The rescue was never about Japan.
On the last day of July, the U.S. Treasury sold euros to buy Japanese yen.
Read that sentence again, because almost every word in it is unusual. Not dollars. Euros. Not the Federal Reserve acting on its own account. The Treasury, through the Exchange Stabilization Fund, with the New York Fed executing as its agent. Not a swap line, which is the tool built for exactly this situation and which has been sitting there fully authorized the entire time. And not in defense of the dollar, but in defense of somebody else’s currency.
This is a strange new way of doing things. The US is helping Japan, in a way that is hurting the Euro. The US wants to prevent a major international crisis from happening as long as possible.
By sending the message that the US is willing to do this over and over, it helps keep speculators from shorting the Yen.
The europeans duly noticed and were not pleased. The club of insulated people that form the hand are in way above their head.
Siddhartha Gautama, the Buddha,
drew a circle with a piece of red chalk and said :
“ When men, even unknowingly, are to meet one day, whatever may befall each, whatever their diverging paths, on the said day, they will inevitably come together in the red circle. ” ( ~500BC )
[ Le cercle rouge: What Is the Red Circle ? ]
https://www.criterion.com/current/posts/1815-le-cercle-rouge-what-is-the-red-circle?srsltid=AfmBOooA9w4DRtbU8Lim2NB1BBo9ks0m9PU3O8gcOBdwedJyhQUMQ2Qr
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aka the final showdown approaching..
Two short Digital tributes to the [ Analog bygone era ], he who experienced even just tail of it, can never forget..
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/1IFHMgC8r6Y
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/xEYu9Y1-Nok
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be advised spoilers inside..
“Japan’s net external assets reached a record high of over ¥561 trillion ($3.5 trillion), though it ranks third globally behind Germany and China.” [RSM Global]
“Gross external assets surpassed ¥1,805 trillion, driven by corporate investments and foreign securities valuation gains.” [NHK]
This is a major issue: the more the yen depreciates, the greater Japan’s gross external assets become in yen terms. A lot of people in Japan are quite happy about that. It’s a sort of national nest egg. Whether you are an individual, a corporation, a pension fund, investment bank, these days if you are sitting on a pile of yen and you don’t move it into dollars, you are kicking yourself for not taking advantage of the direction the exchange rate is moving. Five years ago the rate was 110 yen to the dollar; today it’s 160; the talk among people in the market is it is heading up past 200. So there is bound to some motivation to get out of the yen before it plummets further.
On the other hand, the Japanese Government and the BOJ don’t want to see the national currency sinking like the Titanic, so they will do as much as they can to prevent that, even if it means selling off some of their foreign holdings including US treasuries. And the US Government and the FED don’t want that to happen, as they would impact the market for such assets. Hence this collaboration to help stabilize the exchange rate.
Whether it will work or not is a vexed question. In a sense, these two governments are betting against market sentiment and expectations. I’m not an economist and haven’t studied this and don’t know the relative sizes of the money flows involved. However, I do remember that in the UK John Major lost a lot of government money in the early 1990s trying to defend the pound against market speculators, personified by George Soros. But with the Americans on the team, Takaichi may achieve a better outcome.
Tim,
As you can see it’s not speculators shorting the Yen that are the problem. Money doesn’t want to stay in Japan. Heck they have the lowest unemployment rate globally. But that doesn’t mean their economy is well off. And this isn’t just retirement savings leaving Japan. This money is highly levered trying to seek out profits that don’t exist in Japan.
The money doesn’t want to stay. The American team doesn’t really change the fact that the money doesn’t want to stay.
The New York Fed doesn’t have an endless supply of dollars. The FED Reserve doesn’t have any dollars. Which is why the swap lines between central banks don’t work. They can swap all the banks reserves they want. Bank reserves don’t equal credits on commercial bank balance sheets. Credits on commercial banks balance sheet need a borrower with sufficient collateral in order to create new money via a loan to get new money into the economy.
Japan doesn’t get dollars by using treasuries as collateral at the FED REPO window. Japan gets bank reserves.
Smoke and mirrors. The New York Fed sold some Euros that they had to get get dollars to prop up the Yen. No money was printed. No loans were made. No the dollar supply wasn’t actually increased.
This intervention was a complete an utter joke.
So the best way to fight against the system is to have no debt.
Thanks for a very clear explanation, HHH.
“Money doesn’t want to stay in Japan.”
This is the sort of bite-sized slogan-like sentence that encapsulates the reality of the situation, and even the guy who works at the gas station can grasp it.
https://medium.com/@alysion42/recalibration-of-limits-to-growth-a-2023-update-of-the-world3-model-055b677a6cd5
LTG model shows peak humans NOW, 2026.
The second graph was published in 2024. I think that the model may be right.
Just a heads up . An ” Arab Spring ” is in process in India . Follow it by yourself . 1400 million lives with no exit route .
AI Overview
Yes, India faces a severe and ongoing water crisis. With roughly 18 percent of the global population, the country has access to only about 4 percent of the world’s fresh water resources. Over 600 million people face high-to-extreme water stress, and major cities frequently experience acute shortages.
I can believe this.
so the CIA is involved?
This not good at all. Arab Spring involved a lot of violence.
According to Wikipedia:
The Arab Spring (Arabic: الربيع العربي, romanized: ar-rabīʻ al-ʻarabī) was a series of pro-democracy anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in Tunisia in response to the death of Mohamed Bouazizi by self-immolation.[1][2][3] From Tunisia, the protests initially spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. The rulers deposed include: Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, all in 2011; and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen in 2012.[a] Major uprisings and social violence occurred, including riots, civil wars, or insurgencies. Sustained street demonstrations took place in Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman and Sudan. Minor protests took place in Djibouti, Mauritania, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Western Sahara.[4] A major slogan of the demonstrators in the Arab world is ash-shaʻb yurīd isqāṭ an-niẓām! (Arabic: الشعب يريد إسقاط النظام, lit. ’the people want to bring down the regime’).[5]
I predicted it. South Asia will not be a pretty place to be at.
I rue the day financial markets come to their senses .
” World oil production dropped 15 mmb/d during the Iran War
It fell only 11 mmb/d during Covid .
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2086854525374120292/photo/1
The draw down is re-accelerating .
” US SPR crude inventories fell by ~6.1mb w/w to a multi year low of 298.7mb last week .
Sour down ~2.0mb to 193.4mb
Sweet down ~4.1mb to 105.3mb
This is fast from 2.8 to 6.1 .
https://x.com/staunovo/status/2086838062676349299/photo/1
BREAKING: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil inventories have officially fallen below 300M barrels for the first time since 1983, a 43-year low, with inventories declining another 6.1M barrels last week to 298.7M barrels.
At the current drawdown rate, the SPR will hit the congressional minimum of 252.4M barrels in 8 weeks or less, with 46.3M barrels remaining to go.
Iran declared it will wait out the Trump administration until January 20, 2029, but Iran likely doesn’t need to wait that long, with the US SPR running out in weeks forcing Trump’s hand well before 2029.
https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2086855774240739679
I am not going to comment on DJT asking Iran for compensation . The USA elected a clown and now they can watch the circus .
The story gets increasingly strange, as we go on. Donald Trump cannot admit that the US is losing.
Scenarios :
– the looming and so far obfuscated incoming recession pulse is so scary-beyond massive, hence actors-players self-restrain themselves for now
– energy (oilz) market ( now ) work way differently indeed, somehow could be directed-placated from above center or key nodes globally
– the markets just stay on irrational way longer then previously achieved-logged levels of irrationality
– waiting for excuse-patsy actor, most likely for some 2.5-3rd world status country triggering the desired energy beyond-panic, and msm, int. institutions then associate / pin-point blame that way
– key actors wait / anticipate major war escalation trigger – threshold as cover
..
.
and or combination % / %% thereof
Of course, if the financial markets come to their senses, the result will be collapsing equities and many more defaults on debt. The result will be fewer finished goods and services to go around to an ever-increasing population. The result is Limits to Growth, not high prices from peak oil. Governments may collapse. If governments continue and print more and more money, without the goods and services to purchase with the money, we head into hyperinflation.
A true competitor to the expensive AI models??
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/meta-releases-muse-glimmer-30b-model-runs-single-consumer-gpu
Meta Releases Muse Glimmer, A 30B Model That Runs On A Single Consumer GPU
Meta released Muse Glimmer on Monday, a 30-billion-parameter model built for agent work that fits on a laptop. The company published the model’s weights – the trained numbers that make up the model itself, meaning anyone can download it and run it on their own machine – on the model repository Hugging Face, under an Apache 2.0 license that is genuinely permissive, without the usage restrictions Meta attached to its Llama releases.
The model is aimed at a specific and increasingly crowded target: AI that runs on your own hardware instead of somebody else’s cloud. Google has Gemma, Alibaba has Qwen, Mistral and DeepSeek both ship small open models. Meta is arriving late to a category it arguably created and then abandoned. . .
Meta has positioned Glimmer against Google’s Gemma4-31B and Alibaba’s Qwen3.6-27B, and claims strong results on tests that measure whether a model can complete a multi-step job start to finish – fixing real bugs in real codebases, calling outside tools, recovering when something fails. Those are the company’s own numbers from the company’s own testing, which is worth remembering until outsiders get their hands on it. As of Monday, they can.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says a version of Spark itself will follow in the coming weeks, with larger models after.
Models you can download are cheaper to run and easier to customize than models you rent, and the strongest downloadable ones increasingly come out of China – DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot [Emphasis added]. Zuckerberg’s argument is that American labs are hobbled by training-data restrictions their foreign rivals don’t face, and that blocking foreign models is the wrong answer to that.
“US policy must reduce this additional friction if we want American open source models to lead over time,” he wrote.
The capitalist west has no interest in free give-away “products”. They only serve society not the oligarchs.
There are endless videos about Japan being worried about declining population. Their desire is make it stop. I say embrace the future, enjoy the lower population density, lower pollution.
In the pasted the ruling class worried they needed human bodies to die in war and human bodies to waste their health and days away working in factories. This is no longer the case robots fight gallantly, robots make cars, houses, roads, food.
Japan needs to maintain its robot population. The humans are icing on the cake. What makes Japan is the high quality of the people.
But repaying the huge government debt with a smaller population is an exercise in futility.
Maintaining the many, little-used highways takes resources that aren’t available.
Auto makers in Japan have fewer and fewer local customers to sell to. Somehow, they must sell more vehicles abroad. But the world market for automobiles isn’t growing, and China seems to be selling at below cost. How can Japanese automakers avoid defaulting on their debt.
In fact, this happens will a lot of other products. How about toys for children? The number of children in Japan is clearly falling. How do toymakers repay their debt with interest?
If there are fewer people going out to restaurants, how do restaurants repay their debt with interest?
Debt repayment will require an increasing robot population to make the goods and services. Japan with 50 million humans and 500 million robot wealth makers will be a paradise.
Humans are wealth consumers. Robots with ASI are wealth makers. The robots/asi also fight to obtain access to the raw materials needed to make wealth.
Humans require debt to induce them to work. You will be cared for after the endless work breaks you. Robots require zero debt. Once you are broken you are melted down for scrap.
Ed, you are very chirpy today!
Good to read you.
In Japan, population decline is now baked into the cake and the prediction is for the working age population to fall by about 10% over the next decade.
However, the population of wrinkly crinkly old codgers is going to remain about the same for a decade or two yet, and the average age is going to rise.
There are several ways to cope with the situation. Japan could import 5 to 10 million young people from places further south, or they could produce or import 5 to 10 million androids to do everything from cooking fries and flipping burgers to growing rice and performing brain surgery.
I guess the future will fall somewhere between the two scenarios. AI will be in. Drones will be in. Autonomous vehicles will be all the rage. but there still will be plenty of work for people to do, including the kind of work that reassures other people.
From Kevin Walmsley. Depending on its scale, it could be a significant factor in China’s reduction of oil inputs. Also, a test run of wartime economic measures.
“China has also developed vast capacity in coal-to-liquids technologies, that allow for conversion of their massive coal reserves into fuel, plastics, and fertilizers.
That industry now yields millions of tons of liquefied coal products every year, and even allows for high volumes of urea exports to friendly countries.”
I have read previously about China’s urea production, which is huge.
This is one reason that our estimates of inadequate urea through the straight won’t necessarily carry over to world urea supply.
The only thing that will or would keep the Japanese Yen from imploding is a stock market crash. Not their stock market, the US market. Japanese institutions will just keep buying the mag 7 stocks until they are proven wrong and US stocks go down and continue going down instead of up all the time.
It’s the Japanese banks that are betting against the resent intervention by the US treasury via the New York Fed. They don’t care about the intervention. They continue buying as long as US stocks keep going up.
US stocks continue going up as long as the passive bid remains strong. It’s going to take a lot more bad US jobs numbers to turn the tide on money leaving Japan.
West Marine Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
https://boatingindustry.com/news/2026/05/18/west-marine-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy/
These are HUGE boating stores. Got one by me on Lake Michigan even has its own bar/pub inside to it. Its massive!
I visited Detroit and Lansing, and stayed for a week in Port Huron about 30 years ago. Even then, Motown was well past its heyday and there were lots of desperate or defeated people on the streets. But I remember once we got outside of the big city, the road north was like a vast parkland filled with maple trees—very picturesque in the autumn sunshine.
Lansing with its boring square modern flat-roofed buildings on the East Side didn’t do much for me, although it also had/has some beautiful Victorian architecture. But Port Huron was like stepping into Peyton Place or one of those old Jimmy Stewart movies where he saves the town from the capitalist vampires. Even the stores in the high street were like something that only exists in Disneyland these days. Charming town! So I had a good impression of Michigan overall.
But I never got as far as your side of the state, where the truly affluent hang out. I can see how huge boating stores could be very profitable on the shores of Lake Michigan, but if they are going bankrupt I see it is a sign of hard times and belt-tightening. Either that, or more and more people are too busy or too wrapped up with their smartphones to want to go boating.
With Gas being so expensive and the bad economy it makes sense.
A lot of boats come from Chicago up to west michigan. Many sailboats too.
As U.S. oil and refined product exports soar, will the Trump administration impose an export ban?
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2026/08/as-us-oil-and-refined-product-exports.html#more
According to Kurt Cobb:
U.S. refineries are set up to use a certain mix of light and heavy crude; hence we export some light crude and import some heavy crude to get the right supply of both. Therefore, restricting exports of light crude won’t help refineries make more finished products since the key to that is having the aforementioned right balance of light and heavy crude.
My guess is that unless gasoline and diesel prices remain elevated for months more, export controls will remain off the table. But if the high prices don’t dissipate by then, the American public will be clamoring for a solution. Don’t be surprised if the opposition party starts pounding the table for some type of export restrictions in order to score some points with the public and against the president.
We desperately need crude oil imports, I agree. US refineries make money for the US. Curbing exports doesn’t help.
You need to understand where the UAE geographically to understand this article:
https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/united_arab_emirates_map.htm#google_vignette
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/How-the-UAE-Has-Kept-Its-Oil-Flowing-Through-Hormuz.html
How the UAE Has Kept Its Oil Flowing Through Hormuz
The UAE, which left OPEC on May 1, has found workarounds to the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz. It has been shuttling crude through the chokepoint to load it on larger vessels outside the Strait, maximizing the use of its onshore pipeline to ship crude from the west to the east of the country, bypassing Hormuz, and shipping tankers through the Strait in dark mode. . .
The UAE is estimated to have produced 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, its highest output ever. . .
The UAE has managed to ship over June and July the most crude oil out of the Strait of Hormuz than any other Gulf producer, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. . .
The UAE has sought to adapt to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by sneaking tankers in dark mode through the Strait and increasingly offering to sell many of its crude grades for loading offshore Fujairah and at Sohar in Oman, outside the Strait.
Lies .
” ADCOP Pipeline: Moves 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day from Abu Dhabi fields directly to Fujairah. ”
How can they send 4.1 mbpd ?
” During the 2026 Iran war and the 2026 Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates, Fujairah was also targeted. On 3 and 4 March, debris from drone interceptions fell down, causing damage[16] to two oil storage tanks, burning and releasing dark plumes of smoke into the sky, while another had burned.[17] On 9 March, similar attacks shut down the oil terminal, so only storage was available for bunkering.[18] On 12 March, the terminal was partially operating again to replenish storage and bunkering.[19] On 14 March, Iranian drones reportedly struck the port, causing fires and the suspension of some oil-loading operations. Debris from the attack fell onto parts of it, but no casualties were reported.[20][21] The oil loading was stopped, but reopened on 15 March. On March 16, another attack closed the oil operations.[22] ”
Are we to presume the Iranians are blind ? UAE is enemy number 1 of Iran .
The Iranians are now in the groove . Lob a bomb on Monday before the market opens .
WSJ JUST EXPOSED THE “MISSING BARRELS” — AND THE MARKET STILL DOESN’T WANT TO HEAR IT
The Wall Street Journal published a detailed reconstruction this weekend of the global oil balance after the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The numbers still don’t add up. Five months after analysts warned of a historic shortage and triple-digit prices, Brent trades near $83. The gap that remains is large enough to force a quiet rethink of how the world’s energy system actually works.
https://x.com/Mark4XX/status/2086467177704542209/photo/1
Never heard of that, but I try to be prudent about which conspiracy theories I subscribe to. This one doesn’t make the cut. Israeli “art students”, on the other hand …
Who can remind me of the name of the Russian spy who said some 25 years ago that on 9/11 an Israeli fired two missiles at the Twin Towers from a submarine on the coast? As we now know, the missiles were cloaked in aeroplane-like holograms. He said that mini-nukes were then detonated in the basements of the towers to destroy the evidence.
Well, and on slightly diff. topic, perhaps extraordinary far edged theories are not necessary when [ the hand ] sometimes just re-announces itself in the plain sight.
By chance just recently stumbled on this fascinating tidbit.
In butchered summary: son of Soviet premier, suddenly near 60yrs of age asked for US citizenship in the early1990s. And just by mere happen-stance was a big shot in strategic missile guidance, space program institutions and industries; furthermore kept dual citizenship, and his (grand-) & kinds remained in RU.. Then got under the wings of some US institutions and retired, died later stateside as well.
Unless further clues (not) to be revealed the key explanations are as follows :
– trivial case of blow-hard naive soul, bordering crazy, no spectacular motives, dealz or shenanigans at work
or
– trivial case of money-opportunity seeking as translated memoirs were at that time to be published in English, perhaps also smelling that Hollywood contract sized in $m range
or
– as all family long-term politically allied w. the late 1980s squadra in Kremlin office, perhaps intentionally dispatched to the US through some n-disarmament related joint programme ( or other ! ) be it later canceled or not; simply placed there as corroboration-asset method for the US govs fact checkers etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Khrushchev
Update: received few hints from a retired psychologist, he read ” the case ” and few of his interviews ala this very strange one at Salon. from 1999.
https://web.archive.org/web/20000118095040/http://www.salon.com/people/log/1999/06/24/khrushchev/index.html
1/ That guy’s legend is 99% legit in terms of evidently high IQ and demonstrated very tight self-control.
2/ The obsessive self-control could be explained simply by living ( or rather more importantly as growing up ) in Stalinist system to his ~17yrs of age, when his father’s life as one of the key regime figures could turn into ad hoc extermination any hour, day. Then from late 1950s it snapped to meager punishments.
3/ However, this continued self-control as not being eased / released after stay in the US could be sign of continuous stressful mission-assignment of some kind. But most of these interviews were done before granted the citizenship, so that could be the benign vector nothing more, however he/doc would bet more on the ~nefarious angle forcing though still.
__
PS for what is worth just ~confirmed the earlier general vibes of this peculiar case.. our exploration efforts into the mighty universe of ” the hand ” throughout 20th century and beyond.
You may be thinking of Dimitri Khalezov, who claimed that an unmanned Soviet-era “Granit” missile—equipped with a thermonuclear warhead—was stolen from a sunken submarine (specifically the Kursk) and fired into the Pentagon. He also claimed the Twin Towers were brought down by mini-nukes in the basement.
The Kursk submarine disaster happened on August 12, 2000, so the anniversary is coming up on Wednesday. The Russian nuclear-powered submarine sank in the Barents Sea after two powerful explosions during a naval exercise, killing all 118 crew members on board.
That man is indeed he, thank you. For his theories exists clear vindication.
https://www.911history.de/aaannxyz_ch01_en.html
“Our take home a message today is that the reason for the collapse of World Trade Center 7 is no longer a mystery.
World Trade Center 7 collapsed because of fires fueled by office furniture.
It did not collapse from explosives or from fuel oil fires.”
—Shyam Sunder; head of the NIST investigation panel into the 2001 9/111 attacks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJc1aHEQu7w&t=9s
And, like our recently-retired old friend Dr, Fauci, Dr. Sunder is still sucking at the ample tit of US federal bureaucracy. He knows how to say the right words with a straight face and gaslight the public in support of the narrative. That’s the kind talking head they’re looking for over at Central Casting.
In 2025, he was appointed the Associate Director for Laboratory Programs (ADLP) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), U.S. Department of Commerce.
https://www.nist.gov/people/dr-s-shyam-sunder
“PULL IT””
Just in case Norman wants to roll his eyes and call this a crazy conspiracy theory, here is Larry Silverstein on PBS.
I thought they said that during the broadcast, a voice over or something, but my memory is hazy now.
Apparently WTC 7 contained the files of the CIA, with all its dirty secrets. Method in their madness.