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The war with Iran is not going well. It is difficult to supply US troops with adequate food and other necessities. With summer arriving soon, the region will soon be an even more inhospitable place for ground troops to fight. An underlying problem is that the world economy was reaching resource limits even before the Iran War began, adding to the difficulties.
The most pressing resource limit is distillate fuel oil–an industry term for what we think of as diesel and jet fuel. This fuel is heavily used in transportation. It is also used extensively in agriculture and industry. Somehow, the system needs to cut back on these fuels for international trade so that more fuel is available for agriculture and industry.
President Trump of the US and President Xi of China will be meeting in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting would seem to be the perfect time to start reorganizing the world with shorter trade routes, so that the world economy uses less fuel for transportation. China and the US are the two great powers in the world. Keeping trade mostly within the two areas shown in Figure 1 would be a way of using fuel oil more sparingly.
An advantage of such a plan, besides saving on fuel, is that it could stop the Iran War without clearly declaring one side the winner or loser. In this post, I will attempt to explain the situation further.
[1] Based on the ideas of Dr. Mohammed Marandi, I believe that China might be able to mediate a settlement between the US and Iran.
Dr. Marandi was born in the United States of Iranian parents. He currently lives in Iran, where he is a professor at the University of Tehran. In the video, One Country Quietly Won this War, he points out that, often, when two countries battle each other, neither one emerges as the clear winner. Both of them are damaged by the war. The actual winner may be a country that does not seem to be directly involved in the war.
In the video referenced above, Dr. Marandi discusses three historical situations in which a nation not directly involved in a conflict gained stature by being the “adult in the room,” when two other nations battled each other. In this case, Dr. Marandi believes that China could very well be the country that can exert enough pressure on both sides to get them to accept a proposed solution. He says that China has acted behind the scenes to bring about the ceasefire, and that Trump has acknowledged China’s role.
Dr. Marandi suggests the idea that the upcoming meeting of the two presidents might be an opportune moment to make major steps toward a mutually agreed settlement. I believe that the underlying problem is that there isn’t enough energy (particularly oil) to support a world population of over eight billion. Dividing up markets in the way I have suggested would at least somewhat alleviate the shortage. Of course, there may be other terms of a settlement, as well. In addition, not all the terms may be determined precisely at this time.
[2] The world doesn’t have enough diesel and jet fuel to maintain the current level of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Figure 2 shows that per capita diesel and jet fuel started to drop at the time of the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009. Their supply took a larger step down in 2020, and it hasn’t completely recovered. In 2026, the Iran War has taken out more crude oil supply, for an unknown period of time.
Diesel and jet fuel are both very important as transportation fuels. Diesel is also important in agriculture because it provides the power needed for heavy machinery to till fields, even under the most adverse conditions. Diesel provides the power needed for large commercial trucks, many trains, and ships. Earth moving equipment is also typically operated by diesel fuel.
If the amount of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific could be greatly reduced, it would help alleviate the shortage of distillates. Of course, the tourist trade would also need to be greatly reduced. With recent spikes in aviation fuel prices, many flights are being cut. Some airlines, including Spirit Airlines in the US, are going bankrupt. The problem is starting to solve itself, but more changes will be needed.
[3] Looking at population and oil supplies, the Americas seems likely to come out somewhat ahead.
[3a] Comparing the populations of the two areas, the World ex Americas is much larger, and its population is growing faster.
President Xi (leading one hemisphere) would get the very large and still rapidly growing part of the world population. President Trump would get a smaller and less rapidly growing share of the world population. Between 2021 and 2024, world population grew an average of 0.6% per year in the Americas, and an average of 0.9% per year in the World ex Americas.
[3b] The Americas seem to have an advantage with respect to crude oil production.
It makes sense to look at energy amounts on a per-capita basis because the quantity needed depends on the number of people requiring the benefits of transportation, agriculture, and industry. On this basis, crude oil production of the Americas has clearly been outshining that of the World ex Americas. It is higher on a per-capita basis. In addition, the amount available has been increasing in recent years.
Figure 5, below, shows total crude oil production (not per capita).
Figure 5 suggests that since 2005, crude oil production for the World ex Americas has hardly increased. In fact, total extraction has decreased since 2019. A person viewing this data might conclude that crude oil production in this area may already be past its peak.
On the other hand, Figure 5 shows that oil production of the Americas has increased by about 65% since 2005. Many people believe that US shale production will soon decline. At the same time, however, increases seem likely in several other countries in the Americas, including Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. Thus, while crude oil production for the Americas may decline in the near future, its decline is likely to be gradual.
[3c] Crude oil production by geographical area outside of the Americas shows declining production in all areas.
Figure 6 shows that Europe’s crude oil production started its permanent decline in 2001. Asia-Pacific’s production hit a maximum in 2010, and it has been declining since. Africa’s peak oil production took place in 2008, and it has been mostly declining since.
Russia+, which I use to refer to Russia plus nearby countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, has an unusual production pattern. Its crude oil production started to decline in 1989, two years before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (This collapse in crude oil production likely contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.) Crude oil production for Russia+ rose from 1998 to 2019.
Russia+’s production took a big step down in 2020, and it has not been able to recover since. A person might think that Russia+’s oil production was post peak, even before the 2022 conflict with Ukraine broke out. If an oil exporter doesn’t have enough oil to export, it tends to create financial problems within an economy. Participating in a war can appear to mitigate the country’s problems.
Many people assume that the Middle East has endless inexpensive-to-produce crude oil. I don’t think that this is the case. Crude oil production of the Middle East (Figure 6 above) hit two similar peaks in 2016 and 2018, and it has been lower in years since then. I think that Middle Eastern oil production is likely past peak partly because of depletion issues and partly because most countries in the area require high taxes on oil exports to provide subsidies for their ever-growing populations. This leads OPEC to try to maintain high prices. Lower crude oil production since 2018 is consistent with the hypothesis that oil production for the Middle East is mostly post-peak.
One additional difficulty of the World ex Americas is that it is so heavily populated that it cannot access tight oil that might be available without displacing a large number of residents. Another difficulty is that very old wells, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Iran, are ones that it might not be possible to restart if they are shut in for an extended time.
[4] In terms of mining and manufacturing, the Americas seems to come out behind the World ex Americas.
The World ex Americas has rapidly ramped up mining and manufacturing. Coal has been the preferred industrial fuel, with natural gas consumption also increasing.
Figure 7 shows that the energy consumption of the World ex Americas started increasing more rapidly after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The consumption of coal and natural gas has especially increased.
The economies of the Americas have tended to shift towards service economies. Emphasis has been placed on fuel efficiency. Homes are now better insulated, light bulbs are more efficient, and engines of vehicles are more efficient. As a result, energy consumption within the Americas has tended to stay flat (Figure 8).
I have used the same scale on Figure 8 as on Figure 7 to emphasize how low energy consumption for the Americas is now, relative to the rest of the world. After US oil prices first rose to a high level in 1973, the US started transferring manufacturing to lower-wage countries. Southeast Asian countries began to be favored after 2001. Moving manufacturing abroad helped hold down US energy consumption and helped make the cost of goods to the consumer cheaper.
The problem today is that moving so much manufacturing elsewhere has made it difficult for the Americas to go back to producing its own goods, including clothing, furniture, and transformers for electrical systems. Supply lines for a particular item, such as a refrigerator, often run through many countries around the world.
[5] The full transition to the configuration shown on Figure 1 could take well over 100 years.
Changes, such as new supply lines and the new placement of major population areas, cannot happen very quickly. But I expect that some of the same underlying principles that guided these decisions in the past will continue to guide them in the future.
For example, infrastructure (roads, bridges, pipelines, and (today) long distance electricity transmission lines) seems to be the most difficult part of an economy to maintain because of the huge amount of energy required. Before the days of fossil fuels, I understand that slave labor was often used to build and maintain infrastructure. Similarly, slave labor was sometimes used to staff the mines needed to support the building of such infrastructure. As we lose fossil fuels, we will need to think about reducing our reliance on infrastructure.
One low-infrastructure approach used in the past was to build cities near bodies of water, so that fewer roads would be needed. Boats could be used to transport goods without building roads or bridges. If fish were available, they could be caught and used for food. In Figure 1, I am imagining that we will head back in this direction, with cities especially along navigable bodies of water and the ocean.
Unless we discover ways to replace fossil fuel energy, I would expect that the system will tend to go down in the reverse order of when it was put up. In general, electricity was last to be added, after coal, oil, and gas from coal. Electrification was first built in cities; then electricity transmission lines were added to provide electricity to rural areas. Above-ground lines tend to be damaged in storms, leading to a need for frequent repairs. Because of this issue, I would expect rural electricity to disappear quite quickly, unless it is generated at the location where it is used.
Natural gas shipped as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was added very late. Its cost tends to be much higher than that of pipeline gas. I expect it to disappear quite quickly.
A full transition to the two trading zones shown on Figure 1 would require a huge number of changes in supply lines. A 2025 chart by Visual Capitalist shows how much control China has over critical minerals. It states, “China controls key materials such as graphite, rare earths, and gallium–essential for green technologies and defense industries.” While the US has started working on its own production of minerals, it will also need to develop the processing capability for these minerals. Putting all of this in place will likely take many decades. This is a significant factor in the 100-year estimate.
[6] If energy supplies are limited, I would expect population centers closest to fuel sources to be especially favored.
Writers today talk about possibly running short of diesel and jet fuel in a few weeks or months. Clearly, if a population center is at a location where there are both oil wells and refineries for the oil from those wells, the area has a better chance of having fuel than an island in the middle of the Pacific with nothing to sell other than tourism. Thus, Houston, Texas, will likely have fuel, even when models suggest there will be shortfalls in many places.
Often writers concerned about resource shortages talk about the core and the periphery. The core needs to be near whatever source of energy is available that can be used to help grow crops and transport goods. At this point, oil is the fuel that is closest to filling this need. Electricity is a nice-to-have, and it can provide services like refrigeration for food. But it is not good for paving roads or building bridges. So, it can only add to the mix, not substitute completely for oil. Slave labor is the closest substitute for oil that the world has discovered. We would rather not go back to using such an approach.
[7] I am concerned that a major downward economic step will be necessary in the upcoming months and years, but I am hopeful that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on May 14-15 can help smooth the way.
We are at a point at which it is clear that the current organization of the global economy is not working. I hope that the meeting between Trump and Xi will help put an end to fighting in the Middle East. I also hope it will help pave the way for a new path forward.
I expect that the path ahead will be a difficult one, both for the people in the Americas and the people in the World ex Americas. While the US has considerable energy supplies, it lacks manufacturing capability for many everyday goods. The US is also lacking in many critical minerals, especially those used in making high-tech products. With its high wages, it will need extremely high prices, unless processes can be made very efficient.
The World ex Americas may have an even more difficult step down. Its oil supply was already more stretched before the Iran War. Its overpopulation problem seems to be worse than that of the Americas. The World ex Americas is more directly affected by the damage done in the Middle East and the resulting loss of oil supply. And there seem to be many groups looking for war, even if the US leaves.
Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that the upcoming meeting will have a beneficial effect, both in the short term and in working toward a longer-term solution.
There is something unique about modern warfare that caused permanent changes in human fertility.
Contrary to what historians have been claiming the Baby Boom following the end of World War II in America was a baby bust.
ai: Historical data from both World Wars shows that conflict causes immediate and long-term collapses in fertility rates. Uncertainty, economic instability, and the absence of partners lead families to delay or forego childbearing. In France during WWI, the deficit in births was equal to the number of military casualties, effectively doubling the population loss. /ai
I think there was actually a baby boom, but it was in non-white, third world and developing countries where U.S. and Europe’s cheap food and healthcare caused populations to surge. Countries like Japan that were directly involved in the world wars suffered population loss. I think China’s wars during the middle of the twentieth century did more to cause a drop in fertility than the 1 child policies though I think The Great Leap Forward also helped push fertility down.
The resources that would have gone into rearing many children went into educating fewer children. Everyone anecdotally knows people who were part of the baby boomer generation that had more than four siblings but I think they were less common than everyone would like to believe.
For my own “take” on the situation: world peak oil appears to have been last February (as described in line #11 in the table “Parallels between the German & US empires”, at “Demise & renewal of the USA?” (at https://davecoop.net/patterns ).
Times are changing!
[Sorry, I forgot to adjust the number of days for comments. I fixed it.]
There was a joint statement put out by Iran and Oman (who used to be on the opposite sides in this conflict) this morning. It says that going forward, various fees will be levied on ships passing through the straight.
This is a video on the subject.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCJL8bPNBho
This is a press release.
https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/joint-statement-by-the-sultanate-of-oman-and-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-302808021.html
Global onshore oil inventories are now at their lowest seasonal levels on record and ENTRY into the Strait to allow for the resumption of shut-in production is still a trickle. Iran has the leverage…why would they relent now? 2027 WTI below $70 to us is very
mispriced .
https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/2069459715176673288/photo/1
This is a video about the low level of Cushing inventories called “‘We’re Empty.’ Major US Supply Safe Hits Zero”
While the mainstream media celebrates temporary peace agreements, a quiet catastrophe is brewing right beneath our noses. The largest oil storage facility in the United States just hit “tank bottom”—meaning our emergency reserves are practically empty, and the threat of fuel rationing is now a very real possibility.
But it gets worse. For the last 50 years, the US dollar has been backed by a secret agreement with the Middle East to trade oil exclusively in American currency. That deal is officially fracturing. As global powers begin accepting alternative currencies for energy, international demand for the dollar is about to plummet just as our government prints more of it.
In this video, we expose the quiet collapse of the Petrodollar, what the emptying of our largest oil reserves means for your daily expenses, and the shocking admission from leadership about the real plan for your savings.
I also notice that Bloomberg has a video out on this subject from two days ago. It says oil prices could surge to $135 per barrel.
It is called “Stockpiles of Oil Near Danger Zone.”
Bolivia seems to be encountering a few problems. Energy affordability is much more existential for people in less developed nations. Humans behavior when affordability effects them in a existential manner is very consistent.
We are not even at tank bottom yet. Hopefully Bolivia won’t burn everything down before tooth fairy demand destruction shows up and waves her affordability wand. She is coming to the party right? Not much fun without her.
She seems to only like to attend financial crisis not supply. Only Saudi pumping like the world have never seen not demand destruction ended the 70s supply side energy crisis. Saudi rolled the doggys like a boss! Good times!
All those doggys rolled through the Hormuz pass. It was open like a 7-11 back then. I’m telling you. It was good times!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9TT48qOTcgE&pp=ygUHQm9saXZpYQ%3D%3D
It seems like many poor countries will collapse if oil prices spike. They cannot afford to buy it. The result becomes like that of Sri Lanka a few years ago. But there won’t be a bail-out coming from the IMF that solves the problem.
I think they the IMF will bring in negative interest rates which should kick the can down the road for longer but we will probably encounter a deflation in the order of a Seneca cliff down to zero not long after .
They’re putting up “Flock license plate camera’s” all over my town in Michigan.
They’ve had em in Chicago forever. My buddy went through a red light and they took a picture and sent him a ticket in the mail.
I read the cameras are great money makers for municipalities, and the companies that manufacture them, and the politicians who get kickbacks to legislate their installation. After all, they are for our protection, right? To make people obey speed limits and not run red lights.
But these violators are usually middle class who must fork over the fines after being pimped. Easy to enforce these laws They can afford to pay, and enforcement occurs secondarily at the DMVs who issue your license and insurance companies, who then raise your rates after a moving violation. How convenient.
Street criminals under the guise of DEI? They are not profitable to pursue or prosecute, unless they wind up in a for-profit prison.
Instead we have digital surveillance prisons. They’re being built around us. Baaaahh! Sheep.
Sports and cheap beer – keep the sheep grazing!
Reporting from Belgium .
” At the end of December, the Federal Government had already announced that traffic fines would be increasing. Traffic fines in Belgium generated revenue of around €600 million in 2025.”
https://www.brusselstimes.com/2198161/traffic-fines-in-belgium-will-rise-from-july
Tech stocks seem to be selling off around the world. Zerohedge has two related articles. The issue seems to be that there is not enough profitability in the next generation semiconductor chips, so production of them is not being expanded. I remember an earlier article saying that such chips really did not add enough benefit relative to the cost involved. This result should not be surprising, then.
One article is (behind paywall)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/korea-crashed-goldman-explains-what-happened-and-why-it-matters
The Kospi closed down 10%, with SK Hynix and Samsung both sliding more than 12% after a local report said the former was slowing expansion of its AI memory chip production to emphasize the cheaper DRAM components. . .
According to recent reports from South Korean media, SK Hynix is slowing the pace of its HBM4 capacity ramp-up and scaling back part of its original plan to convert production lines from HBM3E to HBM4.
The company believes that, given its strong position in the HBM market, there is no need to aggressively bet on expanding next-generation product capacity.
The other article is (not behind paywall)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-korean-article-sent-memory-stocks-lower-and-sparked-global-selloff
“An official familiar with SK Hynix stated, ‘SK Hynix management cannot help but be mindful that their competitor (Samsung Electronics) is already generating massive profits from general-purpose DRAM rather than HBM.'” The official explained, “Since production forecasts for Nvidia’s next-generation chip ‘Rubin,’ which will be equipped with HBM4, are also trending downward, there is no reason to accelerate the transition to HBM.”
The slowdown in HBM4 (or high bandwidth memory) rollout which is critical for high end AI racks, was – naturally – spun as a positive event and was justified as SK Hynix moving back to DDR memory production, which somehow is now higher margin, but the bottom line is simple: supply for high end HBM is slowing which in turn has prompted questions whether this is due to a cartel-like attempt to control pricing (probably not very smart to admit this), or more likely, in response to problems with the rollout of high end Nvidia systems, and especially the Vera Rubin racks which as we reported a month ago are emerging as extremely expensive, primarily because of the surge in memory prices which are crushing hyperscaler margins.
Clearly, Gail, we need to create an economy in which nothing need be profitable, ever, and yet still get funding to advance to Type 1, the moon, Mars, and wherever the Klingons hang out……..
Profitability is such legacy-thinking.
Perhaps in such an economy, an unlimited quantity of oil can be produced and sold for $20 per barrel. Alternatively, some new energy source will be found that will be equivalent and can be somehow turned into usable liquid form. Maybe we can harness gravity, for example.
Getting rid of profitability makes it awfully difficult to make new investment. It also makes it difficult for governments to collect taxes.
My guess is that, given that habitable planet finite worlds can’t really scale up due to the limitations imposed by gravity, the prerequisite for interstellar travel — along with having the requisite relative abundance of the necessary rare earth minerals for making the necessary superalloys — is evolving in a solar system that just so happens to have multiple habitable planets orbiting in the same band.
You are likely right. Also, any available energy resources are quickly used up by inhabitants on habitable planets.
Yeah the civilizational mastery of theoretical particle physics engineering is assumed, the required materials for the superalloys are a structural requirement, and the ability to leap to the sister inhabitable planets buys time with regard to structural civilizational collapse due to exhausting the nonrenewable resources. Obviously lone planets could do it, but there’s less margin for error. Our lone planet even had the technology seeded by UFOs before industrialism even matured but we still weren’t able to get it done.
The planets on which the climate was more stable than ours would have a massive evolutionary advantage to reaching the stars. So much so that we might consider climatic stability as a quasi-structural requirement for interstellar travel. Fewer or no large evolutionary setbacks. That would include geological stability and also luck with regard to large meteor strikes.
lololol
the only economic system, (living system actually) in which no profit is accrued is that of the hunter-gatherer.
think!!! (or at least give it a try)
Hunter-Gatherers seemed to operate as “gift societies.” People gained status based on the amount that they could give away, not on the amount that they could save up. There was no need for factories to produce goods. Some people could produce flints to make fire and special stone tools, but this did not require building factories in advance. I understand that heat was needed to make sharp stone tools. Such an operation probably did require quite a bit of working together. Somehow, the organization seemed to take place, without money or profits.
My husband and I visited Knossos in Crete, Greece, with 1,500 rooms. It was started in 7,000 BC. I don’t think that there was money in use when it was started. (But I could be wrong. Debt that was written on clay tablets seemed to precede money, according to David Graeber.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knossos
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5,000_Years
Put simply we have hit limits to growth for AI.
It would seem that way.
The predator capitalist are trying to take it all. They are not members of human society working slowly and patiently to develop AI over the next thirty years for the common good.
Wishful thinking or more hype to drive higher stock values and purchases of stock?
AI was compared the “invention of electricity” (widespread electricity use-the beginning of the fossil fuel age) on Bloomberg radio yesterday. It’s been many years. I forgot how many of public radio discussions is just salary class folks who don’t know their subjects very well goofing off for an hour or two saying whatever their sponsors would like them to say.
Or, as Techno St Elon Musk said: mRNa ‘vaccines’ are a leap-forward comparable to ‘the invention of the internal combustion engine’. Ha!
To which one can rejoin: look where that got us!
Vaccines helped create a lot of healthcare jobs. They helped justify high wages for researchers, among others. They helped justify university programs to train all of these folks.
Who cares if there is an actual health benefit?
Must read and see the astounding photographs of Cushing SPR .
” Tank farm owners at Cushing include:
Magellan Midstream Partners, 7,800,000 barrels (1,240,000 m3) of storage, formerly owned by BP.
Enbridge Energy Partners, 20,060,000 barrels (3,189,000 m3) of storage.
Enterprise Products, 3,100,000 barrels (490,000 m3) of storage.
JP Energy Partners LP, 3,000,000 barrels (480,000 m3) of storage.
Plains All American Pipeline, 20,000,000 barrels (3,200,000 m3) of storage.
Energy Transfer LP, 7,600,000 barrels (1,210,000 m3) of storage at Rose Rock Midstream Cushing terminal.”
https://www.worldrecordacademy.org/2023/10/worlds-biggest-tank-farm-world-record-in-cushing-oklahoma-423520
I am struck by the large number of individual tanks that are involved. None of those tanks can be drawn down completely to the bottom for various reasons. One of the is that the bottom is likely occupied disproportionately by sludge. So the bottom of what we can access might be, say, 10% below the stated capacity. There is other fuel hidden in pipelines and ships in transit.
I love my woodpile: I can deplete it 100%!
And, guess what, everything I cut this year will have regrown by next year (what used to be called – by our very intelligent ancestors – ‘underwood’, not ‘timber’, of course.
That’s bait.
The tanks are “tanking”? This is surprising.
wholesale diesel at 104 rubles a liter. Was 52 in August 2024 so 100% inflation in 22 months.
That is in Russia, I am assuming.
yep.
I figure that some new readers of comments won’t make the connection unless I spell it out.
A serious question, drb: I’ve greatly admired your boldness in moving from Italy to Russia and starting the farm.
But are you now, given this relentless and criminal assault by the West, regretting it (if you feel able to say)?
Econ. speaking back then it was a good move into evidently new promising growing market.. The idea that RU would allow to be subject to this treatment was out of the paradigm.. Key mistake, as mentioned in many previous analysis, as this version of RU during past 20+ yrs was chiefly built on #1 econ. betterment policies and ” mutual alliances “, true safety derogated to way lower notches.. Now, here comes the payback time for that sheer ahistorical path memory foolishness.
Obviously, there will be many innings into this still ongoing, be it further war escalation, or ceasefire, perhaps even mil./sec. apparatus take-over ditching the current govs..
Pls. take the above as mere prelude/supplement musings to Drb’s answer.
Well, this diesel crisis is the first time that made me regret it. I am not sure my farm will survive this. I had a truck and a bulldozer for sale, to tide us over this year. The truck was already sold by handshake and the buyer called and said he is not buying now since he can not drive it. I expect 10% plus economic contraction in Russia this year, wiping out the steady gains of the last four years. The lack of fuel is effectively closing major roadways.
No news outlet covers what is happening, the western ones to show absolute surprise at Putin’s “naked aggression” when he inevitably bombs something in Europe, and the Russian ones for obvious reasons. Understand that right now the fuel situation is worse in Russia than in Europe, Ukraine or the US.
“right now the fuel situation is worse in Russia than in Europe, Ukraine or the US.”
This is not good at all. News of this situation is not reaching the world. The situation is likely to make Russia angry. We can expect retaliation.
Try not to second guess your decision. Collapse is what you make of it and it sounds like you guys are well situated. We’re all going to be in the about the same boat very soon here. Ravi might overtake you on the collapse-o-meter in a month or two.
That’s rough. Good luck.
Peter Murrell jailed for five years after embezzling £400,000 from the Scottish National Party
The estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon is sentenced for stealing from party over 12-year period
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/23/peter-murrell-sentenced-embezzlement-snp-scottish-national-party
Peter Murrell has been sentenced to five years and three months in jail after he admitted embezzling more than £400,000 from the Scottish National party while he was its chief executive. Murrell covered up his theft of £400,315.65 by entering false accounting codes in the SNP’s accounts and submitting falsified invoices.
Since his arrest, Murrell had become very isolated, been ostracised by his friends and former colleagues, and become “a figure of public ridicule”.
John Scullion KC, Murrell’s defence lawyer, confirmed that Murrell had enough money of his own to repay the £400,310.65 he stole from the SNP under a criminal confiscation order, but Young postponed a hearing on those proceedings until mid-September to give the prosecution and defence further time to decide on the full figure.
====================
Amazing that pudding-face Murrell got away with it for so long.
More from the web:
The police investigation into Peter Murrell’s embezzlement of SNP funds, known as Operation Branchform, cost £2.1 million (specifically £2,173,089) by April 2026. This figure covers staffing and includes £100,498 in police overtime, though it excludes additional costs from the Crown Office.
Key financial details of the probe:
Total Cost: Over £2 million spent by Police Scotland on the five-year investigation launched in 2021.
Overtime Expenses: More than £100,000 was allocated specifically for officer overtime.
Legal Aid: The Scottish Legal Aid Board approved legal aid for Murrell, though the exact cost of his defence was not specified in the police probe figures.
Prosecution Costs: Prosecution expenses for the case rose to £460,000 by July 2025, separate from the police investigation costs.
A total disgrace, then. As an Englishman, I think Scotland should have to pay reparations to England, and also for having one more public holiday than England (9 as against our 8). I suggest that we privatise Scotland and sell it to President Trump. For all I know, the leaders of the SNP could be enriching uranium in the cellars of Edinburgh Castle. Maybe the POTUS should invade or at least fire off at few drones at Scotland. 🙁
as a couple, they always reminded me of that terrible music hall act, the Krankies—too awful to watch really
“Fandabbydozy!” (Not!). As those annoying “Krankies” used to say.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1025772969782535
I was looking at the Dow Jones chart on the past six months section and the numbers were glaring at me 666 in other words in the final reading for the Dow Jones it was 51666.84 with a 6.66% rise in the past six months.
This is too much of a coincidence. Are we in the end days as foretold in the book of Revelations.The number 666 signifies the mark of the beast or the Antichrist.Just thought Gail might want to know this we may be saved by something Divine.
I agree that we could use some saving right now, but I am not sure that readers would like 666 as the reason.
”
Mr. Pool
@MrPool_QQ
·
1h
THE FIRST DOMINO JUST FELL.
Keir Starmer — Prime Minister of the United Kingdom — **RESIGNED YESTERDAY.**
They’re telling you it was “party pressure.” They’re telling you it was “polls.” LIES.
Here’s what ACTUALLY happened:
When Starmer was **Director of Public Prosecutions** (2008-2013), his office sent **WARNING LETTERS** to 13,000 suspected grooming gang members. Not arrests. Not charges. LETTERS. “Please don’t do it again.”
**250,000 BRITISH GIRLS.** Raped. Trafficked. Tortured. Across 149 districts. For DECADES. And the man in charge of prosecuting these monsters sent them PAPER.
Two weeks ago, **Operation Beaconport** reopened **1,273 cases.** The National Crime Agency called it their “most comprehensive investigation into child sexual exploitation” EVER.
What they found in those files FORCED his resignation.
I’ve been told the classified MI5 briefing delivered to Labour leadership on June 18 contained **3 categories of evidence:**
**CATEGORY A:** Direct correspondence between Starmer’s office and 7 sitting MPs — instructing prosecutors to DOWNGRADE charges from trafficking to “minor offenses.” Names. Dates. Signatures.
**CATEGORY B:** Financial transfers from 3 foreign governments to a network of UK “charities” that were FRONTS for the trafficking operation. £47 million between 2009-2016. Exposed through GCHQ intercepts shared with NSA on March 14, 2026.
**CATEGORY C:** The connection. Starmer’s office communicated DIRECTLY with individuals in Epstein’s network. Two names appear in BOTH the UK grooming files AND the Epstein flight logs. Those names have NOT been made public yet.
Starmer wasn’t given a choice. He was given **48 HOURS.**
Resign — or face criminal prosecution under the new Modern Slavery Act amendments passed in April 2026. He chose to run.
But running won’t save him.
Elon Musk posted it publicly: **”Politicians who turned a blind eye must go to PRISON.”** He wasn’t speaking hypothetically. He was speaking from INTELLIGENCE he’s been shown.
This is not just about the UK. This is about a GLOBAL NETWORK being dismantled piece by piece. Starmer is the first HEAD OF STATE to fall.
He will NOT be the last.
The next 30 days will produce more resignations than the last 30 years.
Watch France. Watch Canada. Watch Australia.
BEACONPORT-1273
CATEGORY-C-EPSTEIN
CLEANSWEEP-GLOBAL
The storm is here.”?https://x.com/MrPool_QQ/status/2069310773583602036?s=20
Hopefully they will put him in cell with male Ukrainian models, not with Bubba and Jamal. He is unused to catching.
I’d pay little heed to Mr poop. The text is full of inconsistencies and Starmer was always an SS man, put in place to fulfil a certain role.
No one from those circles is going to prison, but they’re definitely going to clean up their own mess this time, honestly, just ask Trump.
It must be underway already and going very well, given that it’s now only 250,000 white girls being raped, so that’s a 75% reduction on the claimed 1,000,000 in less than a year, but that would place it under Starmer’s leadership, so just as well it’s all made up nonsense, or we would be hailing him as the saviour of white virginity.
That’s good stuff Fitz. If the conspiracy theory was as advertised we would see a huge spike in murder statistics.
The UK is dealing with a lot of problems including a high immigrant population with different customs and low wages for a lot of people. This is all related to not enough resources per capita, worldwide. UK is not winning the contest for getting enough for its people. There is no way that it can start new programs that will raise standards of living. If it adds much debt, the pound drops relative to other currencies.
There is no leader that can completely solve these problems. There is a tendency to want to go to war to try to hide the problems and perhaps win a few more resources for the UK.
UK went a lot further than the U.S. into shifting into a services-only economy. Services are primarily consumed by the wealthy.
Services are also trade-able so they cannot use whatever services they have to trade for what they need. The fact that they are able to import more than they export is due to being part of a imperialist empire than hiring a small but sizable number of high skill workers to produce services of dubious value.
England is posturing itself as a worse place for women to live than India or Africa in terms of sexual violence. The grooming gangs are the tip of the iceberg. The Jimmy Saville scandel should have scared many people away from the island, yet people keep flocking to England. Maybe the people immigrating don’t know or don’t believe any of it.
One thing you are saying is that US’s hegemony is helping the US import more than it exports. The UK doesn’t have this advantage. I agree.
UK does need to get its immigration level down. Adding more services of dubious value does very little for the economy. One of the guides when I was over there said, “We cannot add businesses that sell goods that Amazon sells, because we cannot sell them as cheaply.” So we saw a lot of Turkish barbers, restaurants, and fixed up old sites to try to attract tourists. If tourism contracts, I expect that the UK will be one of the areas adversely affected.
That’s very accurate: Turkish barbers, restaurants, kebab shops, mini-supermarkets, etc, have all proliferated as money-laundering facilities – presumably from the sale of illegal drugs.
Immigrants of various kinds also dominate the local government bureaucracies.
In London recently, I saw what were very obviously Indian pimps dealing with their African prostitutes. Most enlightening as to the flourishing sub-economy….
Your London guide sounds rather more clued-up and honest than one would expect!
I think Turkish barbers, restaurants, kebab shops, mini-supermarkets, etc are profitable on their own and don’t exist only because of drug money. I will acknowledge that CVS and other stores in America selling legal drugs probably make more money off of drugs and medical products than anything else in the stores but that’s America where the price of legal drugs is higher than anywhere else.
As for the pimping and prostitution, I suppose that is the nature of private sector labor in England. Not everyone can have government job where one is expected to produce knowledge and cleverness.
The UK is a hanger-on of U.S. led imperialism.
It is the U.S.’s actions that allow England to also have a service economy where they can import stuff while having little to export.
” I think Turkish barbers, restaurants, kebab shops, mini-supermarkets, etc are profitable on their own and don’t exist only because of drug money.”
Correct , here in Belgium are ” night shops ” and Pizza shops .
*services are not tradeable.
The US president is a world class sexual predator—and brags about it himself…
99% of sexual predators are men who are utterly useless in that department.–It is their insecurity that makes them that way…
it doesnt stop people going to the usa….. (other reasons might–why anyone would want to at the moment is beyond me)
every country has that problem…saying Uk is somehow worse is total BS
I know for certain, Gail, that some old airforce and commercial disused airfields in the UK have been brought back into commission to test drone weapons, etc. This is direct and reliable info.
For obvious reasons I cannot name names.
Russia – dismembered and exploited – is the big prize, it seems.
While the – laughable – propaganda tells us that Russia wants to invade resource-bankrupt Western Europe…..
The benefits of dismembering and exploiting a self-collapsed and separatist USSR outweighed the costs. To put it mildly. There is zero benefit and catastrophic cost to needlessly forcing collapse onto that same country you’re already fully exploiting.
So something else must be going on.
killing Christians for the psychopaths
Not really what I was thinking of. 😄
Vlad :
“…It’s just a flesh wound…” ;
” ..let’s discuss it w. our int. friends and partners..”
Linked bellow is relatively long collection of footage from FPV drones over Crimea, supposedly action from very two last nights only! As in previous dayz they already destroyed bridges, railway, related targets etc.
So, this newest vid involves: strikes on several parked recon aircraft ( capable of carrying missiles ), blown up large fuel storage sites, radar installations, and grid substations, rail oil and hw transport cargoes, ..
While the UKRo boyz made it publicly clear ( in many other vids ) the drones are piloted from distant bunker sites also by youngish / late-teenage cohorts. Serving several purposes, involve them pro-actively in the war effort – yet safely away from front-lines for now, and perhaps more importantly spoofing-negating the RU strategy of lowering collateral damage of adversary pop not engaging them..
So, the whole effort of taking the peninsula a decade ago is now largely/significantly erased by few dozens of drones with meager ~50kg of expl. fitted each..
Beyond the obvious domestic and int. embarrassment, it just solidifies the basic argument not standing up firmly behind “red lines” many yrs ( and up to this point ) ago allowed this very asymmetric warfare now reach (square fnc up) to previously unimaginable scale..
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WauFSf78YCA
Thank you postkey I did not know this
“So guess whose uncle is a weekly visitor to the UAE carrying bags of cash? If you guessed Volodimir Zelensky you are correct. Zelensky’s uncle, according to my source, deposits the money in local banks. The money is then used to purchase property that it then subsequently sold. The proceeds from that sale are then sent to banks in Israel… All cleaned up. From there, some of the money makes its way back to members of the US Congress as a way of thanking them for their support of Ukraine. “?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/which-country-is-the-big-loser-from
This article says that Dubai has been a money laundering center for the world, but now that function is disappearing and being transferred to Singapore. War and lack of access create a major problem for Dubai.
I can imagine that these issues reduce Dubai’s inflows of revenue. They make it harder for Dubai to pay back loans with interest, for example. The article starts out:
While the US certainly suffered some reputational damage and significant economic costs from its unprovoked attack on Iran, the United Arab Emirates may really be the big loser. Let’s focus on Dubai.
And we all know that Ukraine needs a lot of money laundering. Presumably, they can do it in Singapore or UAE, but UAE is a lot closer.
All eyes on Cushing and US SPR now.
When Cushing falls below 18 mb and SPR falls below 300 mb (cir 340 now), it certainly won’t be end of the world, but we will see high volatility and a spike in oil prices.
End of July?
Note .250 million barrels is when the Pentagon comes into the picture . It is not “tank bottoms ” but the “fear of tank bottoms” that is driving policy .
https://x.com/Amalteya3000/status/2068979881472594261/photo/1
China just moved phosphate rock onto its strategic minerals list (effective June 15) tightening both mining and export controls; a feedstock that underpins global food security! Watch DAP/MAP fertiliser availability & pricing closely.
I notice that phosphate prices seem to vary significantly by part of the world. I would expect that transport costs are a big part of the cost. The quality of the rock may matter also and how close it is to the destination where it is used.
https://www.intratec.us/solutions/primary-commodity-prices/commodity/rock-phosphate-prices
US phosphate rock prices seem to be significantly lower than those for other areas analyzed. The data shown on the above site is only through November 2025, so it is not possible to see whether prices are spiking now. I would expect that China’s exports might be mostly to Southeast Asia.
Down to 331 after last last week’s 9 million draw. I have read in a couple of places that 300 becomes a problem. Do you have anything to verify?
USA and England on collusion course for World Cup
Collusion? Are you saying the match will be fixed?
That only happened in boxing in the first half of the twentieth century.
It doesn’t happen anymore.