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The war with Iran is not going well. It is difficult to supply US troops with adequate food and other necessities. With summer arriving soon, the region will soon be an even more inhospitable place for ground troops to fight. An underlying problem is that the world economy was reaching resource limits even before the Iran War began, adding to the difficulties.
The most pressing resource limit is distillate fuel oil–an industry term for what we think of as diesel and jet fuel. This fuel is heavily used in transportation. It is also used extensively in agriculture and industry. Somehow, the system needs to cut back on these fuels for international trade so that more fuel is available for agriculture and industry.
President Trump of the US and President Xi of China will be meeting in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting would seem to be the perfect time to start reorganizing the world with shorter trade routes, so that the world economy uses less fuel for transportation. China and the US are the two great powers in the world. Keeping trade mostly within the two areas shown in Figure 1 would be a way of using fuel oil more sparingly.
An advantage of such a plan, besides saving on fuel, is that it could stop the Iran War without clearly declaring one side the winner or loser. In this post, I will attempt to explain the situation further.
[1] Based on the ideas of Dr. Mohammed Marandi, I believe that China might be able to mediate a settlement between the US and Iran.
Dr. Marandi was born in the United States of Iranian parents. He currently lives in Iran, where he is a professor at the University of Tehran. In the video, One Country Quietly Won this War, he points out that, often, when two countries battle each other, neither one emerges as the clear winner. Both of them are damaged by the war. The actual winner may be a country that does not seem to be directly involved in the war.
In the video referenced above, Dr. Marandi discusses three historical situations in which a nation not directly involved in a conflict gained stature by being the “adult in the room,” when two other nations battled each other. In this case, Dr. Marandi believes that China could very well be the country that can exert enough pressure on both sides to get them to accept a proposed solution. He says that China has acted behind the scenes to bring about the ceasefire, and that Trump has acknowledged China’s role.
Dr. Marandi suggests the idea that the upcoming meeting of the two presidents might be an opportune moment to make major steps toward a mutually agreed settlement. I believe that the underlying problem is that there isn’t enough energy (particularly oil) to support a world population of over eight billion. Dividing up markets in the way I have suggested would at least somewhat alleviate the shortage. Of course, there may be other terms of a settlement, as well. In addition, not all the terms may be determined precisely at this time.
[2] The world doesn’t have enough diesel and jet fuel to maintain the current level of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Figure 2 shows that per capita diesel and jet fuel started to drop at the time of the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009. Their supply took a larger step down in 2020, and it hasn’t completely recovered. In 2026, the Iran War has taken out more crude oil supply, for an unknown period of time.
Diesel and jet fuel are both very important as transportation fuels. Diesel is also important in agriculture because it provides the power needed for heavy machinery to till fields, even under the most adverse conditions. Diesel provides the power needed for large commercial trucks, many trains, and ships. Earth moving equipment is also typically operated by diesel fuel.
If the amount of trade across the Atlantic and Pacific could be greatly reduced, it would help alleviate the shortage of distillates. Of course, the tourist trade would also need to be greatly reduced. With recent spikes in aviation fuel prices, many flights are being cut. Some airlines, including Spirit Airlines in the US, are going bankrupt. The problem is starting to solve itself, but more changes will be needed.
[3] Looking at population and oil supplies, the Americas seems likely to come out somewhat ahead.
[3a] Comparing the populations of the two areas, the World ex Americas is much larger, and its population is growing faster.
President Xi (leading one hemisphere) would get the very large and still rapidly growing part of the world population. President Trump would get a smaller and less rapidly growing share of the world population. Between 2021 and 2024, world population grew an average of 0.6% per year in the Americas, and an average of 0.9% per year in the World ex Americas.
[3b] The Americas seem to have an advantage with respect to crude oil production.
It makes sense to look at energy amounts on a per-capita basis because the quantity needed depends on the number of people requiring the benefits of transportation, agriculture, and industry. On this basis, crude oil production of the Americas has clearly been outshining that of the World ex Americas. It is higher on a per-capita basis. In addition, the amount available has been increasing in recent years.
Figure 5, below, shows total crude oil production (not per capita).
Figure 5 suggests that since 2005, crude oil production for the World ex Americas has hardly increased. In fact, total extraction has decreased since 2019. A person viewing this data might conclude that crude oil production in this area may already be past its peak.
On the other hand, Figure 5 shows that oil production of the Americas has increased by about 65% since 2005. Many people believe that US shale production will soon decline. At the same time, however, increases seem likely in several other countries in the Americas, including Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. Thus, while crude oil production for the Americas may decline in the near future, its decline is likely to be gradual.
[3c] Crude oil production by geographical area outside of the Americas shows declining production in all areas.
Figure 6 shows that Europe’s crude oil production started its permanent decline in 2001. Asia-Pacific’s production hit a maximum in 2010, and it has been declining since. Africa’s peak oil production took place in 2008, and it has been mostly declining since.
Russia+, which I use to refer to Russia plus nearby countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union, has an unusual production pattern. Its crude oil production started to decline in 1989, two years before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. (This collapse in crude oil production likely contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.) Crude oil production for Russia+ rose from 1998 to 2019.
Russia+’s production took a big step down in 2020, and it has not been able to recover since. A person might think that Russia+’s oil production was post peak, even before the 2022 conflict with Ukraine broke out. If an oil exporter doesn’t have enough oil to export, it tends to create financial problems within an economy. Participating in a war can appear to mitigate the country’s problems.
Many people assume that the Middle East has endless inexpensive-to-produce crude oil. I don’t think that this is the case. Crude oil production of the Middle East (Figure 6 above) hit two similar peaks in 2016 and 2018, and it has been lower in years since then. I think that Middle Eastern oil production is likely past peak partly because of depletion issues and partly because most countries in the area require high taxes on oil exports to provide subsidies for their ever-growing populations. This leads OPEC to try to maintain high prices. Lower crude oil production since 2018 is consistent with the hypothesis that oil production for the Middle East is mostly post-peak.
One additional difficulty of the World ex Americas is that it is so heavily populated that it cannot access tight oil that might be available without displacing a large number of residents. Another difficulty is that very old wells, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Iran, are ones that it might not be possible to restart if they are shut in for an extended time.
[4] In terms of mining and manufacturing, the Americas seems to come out behind the World ex Americas.
The World ex Americas has rapidly ramped up mining and manufacturing. Coal has been the preferred industrial fuel, with natural gas consumption also increasing.
Figure 7 shows that the energy consumption of the World ex Americas started increasing more rapidly after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The consumption of coal and natural gas has especially increased.
The economies of the Americas have tended to shift towards service economies. Emphasis has been placed on fuel efficiency. Homes are now better insulated, light bulbs are more efficient, and engines of vehicles are more efficient. As a result, energy consumption within the Americas has tended to stay flat (Figure 8).
I have used the same scale on Figure 8 as on Figure 7 to emphasize how low energy consumption for the Americas is now, relative to the rest of the world. After US oil prices first rose to a high level in 1973, the US started transferring manufacturing to lower-wage countries. Southeast Asian countries began to be favored after 2001. Moving manufacturing abroad helped hold down US energy consumption and helped make the cost of goods to the consumer cheaper.
The problem today is that moving so much manufacturing elsewhere has made it difficult for the Americas to go back to producing its own goods, including clothing, furniture, and transformers for electrical systems. Supply lines for a particular item, such as a refrigerator, often run through many countries around the world.
[5] The full transition to the configuration shown on Figure 1 could take well over 100 years.
Changes, such as new supply lines and the new placement of major population areas, cannot happen very quickly. But I expect that some of the same underlying principles that guided these decisions in the past will continue to guide them in the future.
For example, infrastructure (roads, bridges, pipelines, and (today) long distance electricity transmission lines) seems to be the most difficult part of an economy to maintain because of the huge amount of energy required. Before the days of fossil fuels, I understand that slave labor was often used to build and maintain infrastructure. Similarly, slave labor was sometimes used to staff the mines needed to support the building of such infrastructure. As we lose fossil fuels, we will need to think about reducing our reliance on infrastructure.
One low-infrastructure approach used in the past was to build cities near bodies of water, so that fewer roads would be needed. Boats could be used to transport goods without building roads or bridges. If fish were available, they could be caught and used for food. In Figure 1, I am imagining that we will head back in this direction, with cities especially along navigable bodies of water and the ocean.
Unless we discover ways to replace fossil fuel energy, I would expect that the system will tend to go down in the reverse order of when it was put up. In general, electricity was last to be added, after coal, oil, and gas from coal. Electrification was first built in cities; then electricity transmission lines were added to provide electricity to rural areas. Above-ground lines tend to be damaged in storms, leading to a need for frequent repairs. Because of this issue, I would expect rural electricity to disappear quite quickly, unless it is generated at the location where it is used.
Natural gas shipped as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) was added very late. Its cost tends to be much higher than that of pipeline gas. I expect it to disappear quite quickly.
A full transition to the two trading zones shown on Figure 1 would require a huge number of changes in supply lines. A 2025 chart by Visual Capitalist shows how much control China has over critical minerals. It states, “China controls key materials such as graphite, rare earths, and gallium–essential for green technologies and defense industries.” While the US has started working on its own production of minerals, it will also need to develop the processing capability for these minerals. Putting all of this in place will likely take many decades. This is a significant factor in the 100-year estimate.
[6] If energy supplies are limited, I would expect population centers closest to fuel sources to be especially favored.
Writers today talk about possibly running short of diesel and jet fuel in a few weeks or months. Clearly, if a population center is at a location where there are both oil wells and refineries for the oil from those wells, the area has a better chance of having fuel than an island in the middle of the Pacific with nothing to sell other than tourism. Thus, Houston, Texas, will likely have fuel, even when models suggest there will be shortfalls in many places.
Often writers concerned about resource shortages talk about the core and the periphery. The core needs to be near whatever source of energy is available that can be used to help grow crops and transport goods. At this point, oil is the fuel that is closest to filling this need. Electricity is a nice-to-have, and it can provide services like refrigeration for food. But it is not good for paving roads or building bridges. So, it can only add to the mix, not substitute completely for oil. Slave labor is the closest substitute for oil that the world has discovered. We would rather not go back to using such an approach.
[7] I am concerned that a major downward economic step will be necessary in the upcoming months and years, but I am hopeful that the meeting between President Trump and President Xi on May 14-15 can help smooth the way.
We are at a point at which it is clear that the current organization of the global economy is not working. I hope that the meeting between Trump and Xi will help put an end to fighting in the Middle East. I also hope it will help pave the way for a new path forward.
I expect that the path ahead will be a difficult one, both for the people in the Americas and the people in the World ex Americas. While the US has considerable energy supplies, it lacks manufacturing capability for many everyday goods. The US is also lacking in many critical minerals, especially those used in making high-tech products. With its high wages, it will need extremely high prices, unless processes can be made very efficient.
The World ex Americas may have an even more difficult step down. Its oil supply was already more stretched before the Iran War. Its overpopulation problem seems to be worse than that of the Americas. The World ex Americas is more directly affected by the damage done in the Middle East and the resulting loss of oil supply. And there seem to be many groups looking for war, even if the US leaves.
Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that the upcoming meeting will have a beneficial effect, both in the short term and in working toward a longer-term solution.
Hoping your health is good
. This Finnish study from 2025 indicates the datasets underestimate rural populations and we may be more than eleven billion : https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1076809
Wait a minute! I thought that they had overcounted!!
The elders would know how overpopulated we are so there is a big chance that the next famine could be planned that’s why the closure of the Hormuz Strait stinks to high heaven
Why Shut-In Wells Don’t Just Restart: The Hidden Cost | FutureWise Energy .
Something different from oil prices etc and why ME production is not coming back .25 minutes .
This video features Mark Roach with Future Wise Energy. He explains why some wells don’t come back at all, some come back at a lower level, and some even come back at a higher level. There is a cost involved in restarting a well.
In this briefing:
• Why wax, scale, fines migration, and proppant settling can permanently damage a well during downtime
• The real numbers: a Permian restart study showing oil rates down ~25% and water up ~22% after shut-in
• Why “spare capacity” is often an accounting fiction — and what that means for the next price spike
Chapters:
0:00 A shut-in well is not a light switch
1:29 The physics: drawdown and pressure equalization
2:59 Wax — and the $50–100K remediation bill
5:12 Scale and skin damage
6:12 Gas wells and water loading
7:13 Fines migration
8:33 The shale problem: proppant settling
10:22 Three orders of magnitude in 60 days
12:50 The wells that come back fine — or better
15:44 The restart cost trap
18:23 The pressure-gradient rule
20:14 The spare-capacity illusion
22:45 Where it actually lands: people and towns
That’s part of why I suspect that last February was “world peak oil” — weren’t lots of oil wells “shut in” during the Iran-war srtife?
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1769904000000
A lot of Middle Eastern oil wells are very old. Old wells seem to be particularly prone to problems with coming back online at 100%.
November 2018 on the official Hubbert curve!
Gail writes ” If the whole process doesn’t work, I would expect that the additional salt in finished products (made from petroleum from the U.S. strategic reserves), such as diesel and gasoline, could damage engines.”
Not finding a lot on the internet about salt content in stuff made from the strategic reserves. The assumption is that there is no problem with contamination but there’s no hard proof that the products are salt free.
Gail’s comment was about a hypothetical failure relating to my comment regarding how desalter facilities are more stressed from having to work harder because SPR oil is a whole lot saltier than non-SPR oil. Since we’re almost out of SPR anyway it’s probably not a problem but the off-shore oil requires desalting too. Complexity.
Desalting is the first step in oil refining where applicable, and hard proof of salt content being below industry standards would be required before the next step in the refining process takes place. Hard proof includes standardization based on past proofs if not the testing of every batch.
Just looked it up and batch isn’t the right term since it’s more or less continuous.
AI:
“Desalting is a continuous process rather than a batch-by-batch operation. Facilities do not typically test every batch after desalting; instead, they use a standardized, automated process that relies on continuous online monitoring, control systems, and periodic laboratory verification to ensure quality.The operation functions through a highly structured and automated system:Continuous Automated Control: Desalting units continuously wash heated crude oil with water and separate the brine using electrostatic coalescers. Critical operating variables like temperature, mixing pressure, electrical grid voltage, and the dose rate of demulsifying chemicals are maintained automatically.Real-Time Monitoring: Instead of testing the desalted oil for every single batch, facilities rely on continuous online sensors and instruments. These measure the water-oil interface level, flow rates, and basic sediment and water (BS&W).Periodic Laboratory Testing: Laboratory technicians take periodic physical samples from the desalted crude stream at routine intervals (e.g., every shift or daily). These samples are tested to verify compliance with strict downstream specifications, usually targeting less than 5 to 10 PTB (Pounds of salt per Thousand Barrels).Adjusting to Blends: Rather than testing after the fact, engineers adjust the standardized desalting parameters in advance when a new “batch” or different blend of crude oil enters the system. Different crude oil compositions require adjusted chemical dosing and temperatures to achieve optimal separation.”
This is why I love (as much as a good dog, less than any woman) the piles of firewood I have seasoning in the woods: it just gets better with the passing of time.
I can return to those piles in a year, two years, and their value will be all the greater.
My Hand grows stronger, too……nor does my axe grow weaker or dull with time.
Right on brother. When I moved out to the countryside I realized just how weak my hands were. I realized that basketball and weightlifting for basketball didn’t build strong hands.Now whenever my mom visits she insists on remarking on my meaty hands. Every time. Handling firewood sure beefs up your hands.
Sounds like you’re doing the woodcutting thing right. Like I recently said, I make every mistake in the book. Which included, in my haste but also because I had a partner then and so we geared the falling for two, falling way to many trees at once, so now eight years later and probably 250-300 cords of sold firewood, though that includes the firewood log decks put up by the neighbors that logged the timber portion of the forest, I have a barn full of my last discount wood that needs selling. The rest of the wastage that’s just too far gone will hopefully go to hugelculture but in the meantime time I’m calling them ‘habitat piles’ lol. I’m also saving a number of big brushwood piles for rocket stove fuel. The stuff off the ground and with good airflow is holding up fine.
Let me sneak in wood related tangent.
Only having the attic a bit / and floor ceiling-boundary filled w. insulation, tried this windy and prolonged winter-spring season improvement in terms of draft around the lower walls to foundations section (don’t know how it’s called properly) – as it is all substantially covered under roof overhang – so placed there lot of stacked wood and in some spots those large nest-net-bags w. already dried mulch.. As result the isolation effect was certainly noticed there, especially when/if wind direction changed-focused on that otherwise non- forest protected approach angle..
note: obviously you have to let the ventilation ports for cellar-house vent open/accessible.
I guess for the future and practicality – it would be advisable move completely just for the mulch filled net-bags only (easily transportable) white or black lining it’s not that eyesore anyway – wood texture shines through underneath it; bags are sort of weight-layered securely half bend over each other..not standing upright.
In principle this is not that unusual trick (stacked wood around house bellow windows), I was just initially skeptical about the sheer work input – effect out of it.. Also the potential bugs threat has not materialized yet – perhaps being lot of flagrant larch mulched in there..
Unfortunately, this is all complexity that we have to keep operating. If bombs destroy one of these units, there is a major cost involved and many supply lines.
Hezbollah IDF ceasefire.
Thank God.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9mGWb0tO13o&pp=0gcJCT8LAYcqIYzv
Somehow, we are always surprised. Back and forth; up and down.
I’m quite the contrarian indicator as of late. Reliable and quick.
That’s the beauty of a doomster. If you are right you are right. If you are wrong the whole world wins. Great joy in being wrong.
Multiple attacks from you know who since the “meaningless word” was due to start.
Khamenei’s words bear fruit and now the vegetable in the white house has been pushed further back into the corner.
Which can break any moment
Something in Russia .
“Additional comments from Sechin, apparently from his speech at the annual general shareholders’ meeting:
➡️The “stable supply of Russian consumers with motor fuel is one of the main tasks of Rosneft. We practically do not export oil products. Everything we produce, almost everything remains on the territory of the Russian Federation.” (Kommersant)
✳️ The country’s largest refiner saying it has practically ceased refined product exports is another sign of stress in the Russian domestic fuel market.
➡️ “Physical volumes are all sold. If we had even more, we would sell more. We will work on increasing production, especially since now OPEC offers such options”. (Interfax)
✳️ Monthly production numbers haven’t been reported in Russia since mid-2022, so we cannot discern which companies were responsible for the 400kbd drop in Russian oil production since last fall. However, his statement that Rosneft – the country’s largest producer – is running at capacity raises questions about how much the entire country might boost output in the coming months, should logistical barriers be lifted.”
Russian gasoline output down 25% so far in June after drone attacks on refineries, sources say
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/russian-gasoline-output-down-25-so-far-in-june-after-drone-attacks-on-refineries-sources-say-ce7f5cd2dc8af224
This sounds like a major problem. Russia’s peak in oil production was in 2019.
Russia’s oil production is not down by very much, but it has not been growing. According to EIA data, its average production of crude oil was 10,849,000 bpd in 2019 and 10,027,000 bpd in 2026.
Hardly anyone in the West is even aware of this attack on the Russian Federation.
Their tiny minds are taken up with vacations, property prices , theatrical politics and cat videos.
Agreed!
Hey, what’s wrong with watching cat 😺 videos ?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/42_j7ACrlKE
Waffles is the best cat ever
Yup most people in the west thought the U.S. was winning against Iran!! To be fair I’m wondering per Gail’s analysis if the oil problem is not so bad. It will be made up in other areas
Likely saying a quite a bit of what we have known all along:
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/gabbard-drops-fauci-covid-19-receipts-last-day-he-funded-research-cooked-cover-story-then
Gabbard Drops Fauci COVID-19 Receipts On Last Day: He Funded The Research, Cooked The Cover Story, Then Lied To Congress
Newly declassified documents released Thursday by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard show that a U.S. national laboratory assessed the COVID-19 lab-origin hypothesis as a serious possibility as early as May 2020, as well as evidence of U.S.-funded coronavirus research that included planning for spike-protein modifications, receptor-adaptation experiments, and testing in humanized mice in collaboration with researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
The documents also prove that Anthony Fauci lied under oath. . .
These materials provide primary-source documentation that a U.S. national laboratory assessed a laboratory origin as equally plausible to natural emergence at a time when prominent scientific publications were publicly emphasizing a natural zoonotic source and characterizing alternative hypotheses as conspiracy theories. This includes the February 2020 Lancet letter and the March 2020 Nature Medicine paper “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2”, along with subsequent amplification by NIH leadership.
The research details in the declassified grant reports and proposals involved techniques and modifications – spike-protein engineering, receptor adaptation, humanized-mouse testing, and consideration of furin cleavage sites – that later featured prominently in scientific debate over SARS-CoV-2’s characteristics.
They’ve been looking for work for months, and their despair and frustration are growing. Why is an “army of the invisible” emerging? (interview)
Just getting an interview is an achievement, says headhunter Dalibor Slávík.
Are you sending out resumes, thinking you’re a good fit for a job, but companies aren’t getting back to you? The reason isn’t just a cooling job market, where more candidates are applying for the same position, but also—more recently—the harsh world of algorithms.
HR professionals at large companies in Slovakia use automated systems powered by artificial intelligence (AI) to screen hundreds of resumes, filtering them based on keywords.
The result is a phenomenon known as “ghosting,” in which algorithms prevent qualified candidates from getting a chance at an interview.
“A strange cycle emerges when AI evaluates text written by AI according to rules set by AI. The resumes are polished, properly formatted, and full of keywords, but when we look at them more closely, they all look the same,” says Dalibor SLÁVIK, a headhunter with twenty years of experience, in an interview with INDEX.
Read more: https://www.sme.sk/index/c/pracu-hladaju-mesiace-zufalost-a-frustracia-rastie-preco-vznika-armada-neviditelnych-rozhovor
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
I think this issue is especially a problem for workers in software development and similar fields. Job openings are way down. If they were previously “contract workers,” rather than employees, there is no unemployment insurance in the US. Such workers tend to be missed in unemployment statistics.
Interesting . Anas Alhaji .
Hormuz crossings reach highest level since mid-April — maritime tracking firm
PARIS, June 19 (Xinhua) — A total of 25 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April, data from maritime tracking firm AXSMarine showed on Friday.
Source: Xinhua 2026-06-19 17:50:31
Following the Islamabad MoU and official directives, vessels that submit compliant transit requests will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during the announced period.
Report first to IRGC before you move .
https://x.com/PGSA_IRAN/status/2067930128403820900/photo/1
That was what I was saying previously. Trump’s trip to China ended the war. It cannot be restarted by the US.
T. Carlson reading-explaining the MOU to his ~6M audience making several points. Acknowledging CHN already ahead industrially and militarily of US – given the over-depleted stockpiles at the moment.
But more importantly, links the MOU to British 1956 Suez crisis surrender in the sense it was a bumpy sequence lasting from [ 1918-1945-1956 ] in which UK seized to be a global power.
So, my interpretation is not necessarily (him)reading it that US it at its exactly [ 1956 ] moment, but it is definitively positioned within such final demise ~fluid threshold.
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpKQKOHzPLU
Nevermind that peak oil collapse is the real reason that the CIA boyscout shepherd Tucker was conveniently kicked off Fox News in the first place. Let’s talk Suez crisis parallels lol
Why the misplaced soft-rage?
Lot of folks in the US are mild anglophiles in the sense not of their own choosing – just the sheer saturation of related topics, agendas, family ties, past present mil alliances etc.. on them.
While Tucker in simple terms just explains there to the US audience various limits and future prospects of global power; and in t:32-42min the changing nature of the parasitic relationship w. IZ, becoming global pariah state entity anyway.
He is just recapping / re-hashing the very basics that should have been available via US msm for decades already.
PS I don’t follow him, I was rather surprised the narrative advanced ” so much ” already be it obviously not fully mainstream yet across various %segments/parts of the US.. the Iran fiasco simply moved the needle finally..
PS2 Is this messaging part of wider ” planted ” re-arrangement narrative agenda – possibly involving the resource crisis in some next installment event/opportunity.. ok – so what..
Don’t strawman me with the “soft-rage” bullshit in order to try and imply that I’m behaving in a way that might require that I apologize to you again.
“Ok- so what.” So what? What do you mean so what? The truth and the nature of the truth are the ONLY things that matter in this life Jr. This isn’t a fashion show.
Honestly, there was no attempt on my part to strawman you in any sense..
Perhaps a lang. barrier on my part.
Simply, I don’t get it, what arouse you on that point/s..
– Tucker evolving on these topics
( or perhaps being way deeper shill )
– Discussion of US global-role demise
( in ~clockworky hist. mechanistic way aka given and almost accomplished by now )
– IZ critique / well realistic reveal
..
.
???
Then why call my unceasing rage against the Machine misplaced?
Tucker isn’t a way deeper shill. He’s as obvious a shill as it gets. He’s a primary shill. An America First MAHA social nationalist. Back during Biden he was alternating between one and two layers deep, depending on whether whatever his respective position was back then was in service of MAGA or MAHA.Now he’s the first layer because the DA has advanced and he’s no longer MAGA because MAGA is/was transitional government.
He’s not evolving, he’s doing his job.
What always arouses me about bullshit politics -only discussions is that they are devoid of peak oil structuralism. They try to explain bureaucratic motivations or historical arcs without recognizing the Big Picture. It’s MoonofAlabama cluelessness. Why would you affirm Tucker’s willfully energy ignorant analogizing of Hormuz to Suez that only serves as political cover for peak oil collapse? Why not instead make the observation that, yes, American and British imperial collapses have analogous events — duh — but Tucker is whitewashing because he’s implying that that’s the full extent of the situation.
Yes, good points. Now I get it.
My posts on this segment/thread were just limited in the CHNUS powerplay realm..
On the main thrust of your argument though, we will likely not get full PO/resource squeeze ~confirmation from TPTB, msm nexus, politicos.. ever, at least not during these near-upcoming stages.
As tried ~1-2day ago in that “live” feed of Don talks from France posting here in writing to catch some off the cuff remarks, actually we got relatively ~close to that. Don was at various points of messaging saying: that everything important in the world economy stems from the (price) of oil, and few other energy limited snippets bordering on PO debate..
Now, just gross-hazy eval of mine, I guessestimate he himself is likely briefed (or in capacity to understand) “only” in the sense and perspective of alt oilz from US domain running short ~soon, hence the announced pivot to Greenland, performed Venezuela takeover, and this very recent Iran gamble..
There is also his remark on PURPOSE banning CHN EVs import to the US in order to structurally support Muskovian EVs both passenger class and to some extent if successful the e-trucking fleet as well.
Thanks Jr. Great info regarding Trump’s comments and excellent insight regarding the borderline PO nature of them and how that’s motivated the Venezuela and Greenland (and Iran) clown shows. I said earlier on during Iran hot war phase that the controlled opposition and even the mainstream to a lesser degree were undergoing a controlled version of oil systems theory minus M. King Hubbert lol.
Like you say, the Hand can never let Hubbert out of the bag but the Hand also can’t, during the oil collapse phase, hide the fact that oil is the master resource so the Hand does have to make use of a neutered 12-year old comprehension level oil industry systems theory. And to our everlasting frustration, just because the people in our lives become newly minted 12 year old oil systems theorists doesn’t mean that they’re going to be ANY closer to peak oil theorists. They won’t.
Hand be like, “close but no cigar.”
Changes in power seem to take a very long time. That is one reason why I doubt that there will be a huge change now.
I see peak coal in the UK as being a major contributor to the downfall of the country as a power. That took place in 1913. Peak coal was one of the underlying causes of WWI, IMO. UK’s downfall has been going on for a very long time! The US transition to power took quite a while.
Dollar Diplomacy is alive and well based on the above interview
Dollar Diplomacy: A Study in American Imperialism (1925) is a seminal political-economic book by socialist scholar Scott Nearing and writer Joseph Freeman. The authors argue that the U.S. government used foreign policy as a tool for financial expansion, wielding corporate and banking power to exploit resources in Latin America and Asia.
Key Themes & Arguments
Economic Imperialism: The book defines “dollar diplomacy” not as a peaceful endeavor, but as an aggressive system where American financiers and the State Department collaborated to dominate weaker nations.
The “Open Door” Policy: Nearing and Freeman detail how U.S. policymakers used the rhetoric of free trade and open doors to secure lucrative oil, mineral, and railway concessions for American monopolies.
Military Intervention: The text outlines how economic expansion was heavily backed by military force. When foreign governments resisted U.S. corporate interests, the U.S. military (particularly the Marines) intervened to protect investments and ensure debt repayment.
Resource Exploitation: The book highlights specific instances of U.S. business interests reshaping foreign economies, such as the construction of the Panama Canal and the establishment of vast corporate holdings abroad.
Historical Context & Legacy
Published during the height of U.S. hegemony in the 1920s, the book serves as a fiercely critical primary text on U.S. foreign policy. It remains a highly regarded critique of early 20th-century capitalist expansion, demonstrating how foreign relations were structurally subordinated to the interests of Wall Street.
You can read the full text of the original 1925 edition via the Internet Archive or review a digital reproduction of the book’s structure on the Cooperative Individualism Project.
Thank you for posting this interview exchange, I do listen to channel and missed this one.
Debt requiring the payment of interest seems to always benefit the lenders. It funnels money upward. It also tends to make jobs in the country doing the lending.
Not going to watch that because I’m not going to agree with it. Even if I believed in an organic world of real multilateral geopolitics, China would not be the reason for the capitulation. Tank bottoms and rationing would be the reason because tank bottoms and rationing exist on the short-term. Tank bottoms and rationing means no rare earths before war with China would ever mean no rare earths. And besides, if the major controlled opposition narrative was about the US doing the Iran War not really to regime change as Trump claimed but to cut off China from ME energy, then the plan was working perfectly.
The grapevine or the rumor mill has it that the MOU is in jeopardy because Israel is not moving out of South Lebanon . For the moment the physical signing in Geneva is in the ice box . Let us see if Vance goes to Geneva . WH is silent on his visit .
Confirmed .
“JD Vance cancels trip to Switzerland for planned US-Iran talks . ”
https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/19/jd-vance-cancels-trip-to-switzerland-for-planned-us-iran-talks
BREAKING: Israel has launched a new overnight ground advance into southern Lebanon with Hezbollah forces engaging Israeli troops directly at zero distance, destroying 4 Israeli military vehicles and downing helicopters during evacuation flights. This follows 20+ Israeli airstrikes that leveled residential buildings and killed at least 18 people, including entire families, in the heaviest assault since the ceasefire, per Al Jazeera.
Over this violation of the Iran-US MOU’s first clause, Iran has suspended negotiations with the US and the Switzerland trip, with VP Vance also cancelling his trip in response.
Iran now says it will not unilaterally implement any MOU commitments until the U.S. does the same and attacks in Lebanon permanently stop, per Fars.
https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2067844269805568406/photo/1
Switzerland confirms that the US-Iran (plus Pakistan and Qatar) talks scheduled for today and the weekend had been postponed. The delay comes after strong fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.—– Bloomberg
Initial observation:
IRGC will limit traffic flow to 30-40 ships a day.
That will last as long as it takes to get all those tankers that Iran has been loading on their way(amazingly fast, if we were to believe the US lies about infrastructure destruction).
Iran will attack the squat after this.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-bombings-massacre-civilians-in-nabatieh-villages
The moron in chief has reconfirmed his stupidity
“There are no limits.”
“I haven’t learned that lesson yet. I know there are, but there are no limits,”
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/trump-claims-iran-war-proved–no-limits–to-us-power-after-m
After Vance’s words about the squat just yesterday, where he admitted that they just slaughter women and children, it’s getting harder to justify to the public that they should protect the squat.
When Iran attacks, it would be fun to hear Vance, or Trump say “those murderous squatters brought it on themselves, we’re out”. Who am I kidding, I just quoted the idiot.
I can believe that Iran will attack Israel when given space to do so. Israel has been a problem in the Middle East since it was started. Without the US being able to defend it, Israel’s days may be numbered.
Let’s not forget the ‘Epstein files’ card. There would be ‘consequences’ for leaving Israel twisting in the wind. Hand stacking functions. The Epstein files psyop card WILL be played, just not by Gabbard unfortunately for me.
Hey Fitz, how about that admission of mines by the Iranian Strait Authority? 😁. At last we have ‘confirmation.’ Doesn’t necessarily mean that they actually exist of course. It just means that the main Omani shipping channel can continue to be feathered out of existence. The world is going to be suffocating a month from now while Trump is continually improving upon the art of the worst possible deal.
There’s a certain amount of legal jeopardy(more propaganda than law, but you how the west plays), which I would advise avoiding. Then again, playing along, which gives you control, even during a period that the agreement said “free movement” and keeps the facade of fear that’s too your advantage, it’s an understandable play.
Iran moves its doggys out en masse. Frog pot flame gets turned down from high to medium high. A couple weeks difference before it boils?
25 percent of before will not buffer world economic consequences. Iran will enter crisis with empty storage and a pocket full of Yuan. China will enter crisis with full SPR.
Has a single tanker entered the gulf AKA kill box? Not even the crazy rustbuckets running Russian oil for once in a lifetime profit are that crazy.
This ain’t Somalia but it’s close. It sure as hell ain’t Geneva. Where’s Furiosa when you need her?
It’s a true work of art, isn’t it, dog? Boiling humans ain’t a set it and forget it George Foreman grill operation like what boiling frogs is. Like you said, as the structural situation of oil shortages comes to a boil, you turn down the geopolitical heat in order to misdirect the boiling humans. First with the ceasefire, and again with the MOU.
feel like you’re knocking on the door of the DA, asking to be let in.
“25 percent of before will not buffer world economic consequences. Iran will enter crisis with empty storage and a pocket full of Yuan. China will enter crisis with full SPR.”
THAT is exactly what the Hand, or you, or I, would as author if we were running an intelligent DA that chases Collapse MOP. Iran’s production is the only one being threatened right now. So it must be restarted . It’s probably reason numero uno for the MOU timing. And China is the cheap producer to a broke ass world. If China doesn’t have a 1.5-2year supply then Phase 2 of the DA ain’t gonna work out.
Well. Israel considers it’s 10 mile DMZ “pilot zone” agreement with the Lebanese government a done deal. I don’t think anyone ever thought that Lebanese army was really going to patrol it. It’s more or less the no Hezbollah south of Litani that has been cited for a long time from the UN resolution that ended the 2006 war.
If the MOU and oil transit depend on Israel giving up the Pilot zone agreement I would guess the MOU is DOA.
There is going to have to be a DMZ for any chance of the shooting to stop. Even with it I wonder whether there would be peace.
If Netanyahu was to agree to withdrawal from the pilot zone he would be replaced and go to jail for corruption. He is not going to do that voluntarily.
I don’t think Hezbollah will ever accept the pilot zone. I could be wrong.
I’m thinking I was wrong (again).. I didn’t think Iran was serious about having the whole MOU depend on Israel completely withdraw from Lebanon because I just don’t think that will happen. Stay south of Litani. That might happen. Give up “pilot zone”. Not going to happen. Not without a couple hundred. Tactical smallish big badda booms trying to vaporize Hezbollah .No question whatsoever in my mind. Let’s hope I’m wrong once again.
I think they are going to fight it out. I think it’s going to escalate and be very bad. If Iran keeps Hormuz closed as long as that fight lasts… It’s been going on since long before 2006. As it stands it’s not a bad situation for Iran. Their oil is leaving for China.
Why bother going to Geneva? They didn’t. Item number one won’t happen. Just a big show to keep the frog from noticing the water in the pot is getting warm.
“.. . I didn’t think Iran was serious about having the whole MOU depend on ..”
Interesting isn’t.. , almost sounds like near [ firm principles / or ~morale based policy stand of sorts ] – that should not have existed on this planet any more at this point, right.. ?
It’s like RU- gov&biz elite having families-kids parked in W. Europe for decades already, not mentioning part of their personal finances. Does it perhaps in any shape or form affects their policies? You bet..
Compare, contrast, this peculiar point not much discussed in the W. for some reason. During WW – Stalin’s son ( mere soldier or lowly officer ) being captured, apart from the immediate PR campaign the Germans ” obviously ” offered switcheroo for high ranking general/s already in Soviet captivity. The response: negative, ” Stalin jr. ” was then shot execution or died in PoW camp or something..
Well, can you imagine folks like Vlad, Lavrov, Nabiullina, .. in that situation ? It’s not in their character set-up, these are all few clouds-to-fair weather managers, lucking out on specific favorable time period, not nation survival challenge type of stock.
PS now please spare me in response narratives like: Stalin killed 300-700M people ” don’t you know!!! ” – during “his” rein of terror.. so the above doesn’t count somehow..
Gail I re read your essay and in it you say that you think that the fraking in the U.S will be gradual and the decrease will be made up in southern countries lie Guyana and northern countries like Canada. Do you still feel so sanguine about the future? It does seem like this was a good test and it shows that maybe the system is strong and able to handle problems that arise. Maybe the world does not need as much oil as we thought.
The economy keeps adapting to what resources are available.
Also, new techniques seem to allow a greater percentage of “oil in place” to be extracted. This is what makes estimation of future oil supply so impossible to estimate correctly. There is a lot of oil left, pretty much everywhere that oil has been extracted. If our techniques get better (using chemicals to break bonds, rather than heat energy, for example), we can extract somewhat more.
And many places the availability of oil is impeded by commercial development. For example, Paris, France, seems to be built over an area where oil can be obtained by fracking. If someone can develop a less intrusive way of extracting the oil, perhaps it could be extracted.
what about the Samson option? Who will Israel nuke?
Easier said than done. Understand that notables like Epstein, Chubais, and various Ukie oligarchs have nowhere else to live. At some point there will be also a need to shelter a number of financiers. Perhaps we can agree on a Monaco type enclave, say Tel Aviv and Haifa, guaranteed by say Russia?
The “samsonite” option is no joke.
It means ( certainly at this stage ) retaliatory revenge strike – denying civ to others as well and sharing pain w. everybody..
The delivery means will be varied, e.g. shipping containers / long term hired garages – storage sites / .. deployed all around major metropolises of the world and so on..
Do the people really believe that story?
Amazing.
Should have mentioned this has been discussed by various analysts (and gov leak-hints) way back before current events, even to 1980s..
And looking around the types in/near their govs, it’s ~99.9% legit prospect (by NOW and) into the future.
I’m well aware of the history of this particular fantasy. Repetition does not equate truth.
“And looking around the types in/near their govs, it’s ~99.9% legit prospect (by NOW and) into the future.”
The types that you talk of are exactly why it should be obvious to everyone that it’s fantasy(99.9% probability). Pick any of these people and check their claims over time and compare to the events of now known history.
Simply, if it was even attempted, every nuclear nation, that’s an active partner in genocide and so undoubtedly has an embassy in the fake cuntry without boarders, has a nuke in the basement of that embassy(and various other places).
Someone should show the low IQ squatters a map and then explain what happens next(I would suggest anyone suggesting this really needs to study a map and understand how insignificantly small the squat is and how precarious their parasitic existence really is(2 well placed small to medium yields would finish it and unfortunately quite a few Palestinians)).
Are the Iranians fearful of a bomb in the basement, being the nearest and most obvious place for one?
If nukes are set off in Israel, they will be set off in a way that doesn’t identify the sender. I might expect that the US (or some of the powers that be, including China) could be behind such an attack.
What if they’ve been draining the reserves to cover the shortage and eventually ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOSE!
I hope not, be something doesn’t add up with this whole Iran thing. (actually many things).
And things seem too calm now…
just my 2 pennies.
So far, the world economy has held together better than any of us would have guessed. We can cross our fingers that the same situation will hold in the future. Leaders seem to be trying to figure out a way to bring the economy down somewhat slowly, if they can.
Yes me thinks something major is about to happen
Well Trump said that we only have 4 weeks of reserves left. So that means we either have 8 weeks left or 1 week left….based on his never telling the truth.
Agree. So the great deal is as of now
Iran loads up their oil fast as they can and moves it to China. China gets fed no one else. Irans wells don’t get shut in just everyone else. Chinas SPR gets topped off USA moves closer to E.
How about Fujairah? Black should be flying out of Fujairah..
Or is it only Iran that gets to move the doggys?
Loyds wants the mines gone? They are staying. Only the channel Iran likes will stay open. That’s permanent. There’s a special super duper strait is demined certificate issued by Popeye? Late 29 it gets issued? Then the tankers with three feet of barnacles move?
All on hold till peace breaks out in Lebanon? I take it back. 39 not 29.
Wondering boiling the frog thing?
The way I read this, Accenture’s consulting has been tied to companies needing help with getting into the use of AI. But companies are now needing less of this kind of consulting. This would seem to suggest that companies are no longer going into AI as much. It seems to me that this would be a leading indicator of an AI downturn.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/accenture-crashes-most-record-ai-threatens-consulting-demand
Accenture shares crashed by the most on record in premarket trading on a confluence of issues. First, the company’s fourth-quarter revenue outlook missed Bloomberg consensus estimates and third-quarter bookings declined, reinforcing investors’ belief that consulting demand is declining in the era of AI adoption across corporate America, which is wreaking havoc in the white-collar job market.
Craig Tindale has just released 2 in-depth articles which I found to be of most interest, and that readers here will appreciate
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/the-hidden-subsidy-who-owns-the-chemistry?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=ruw3x&triedRedirect=true
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/the-day-the-ocean-stopped-understanding?r=ruw3x
In the first article, Craig Tindale makes the point that when mining, minerals of various kinds tend to be mixed together. The US way of valuing mining is by having companies focus on a particular mineral, say aluminum, and only uses the material extracted for that purpose. China’s approach is to focus on getting multiple minerals out and processed simultaneously. This approach is better in many respects.
Rather than operating as isolated facilities chasing single commodities, China functions as the indispensable multi-refining intermediary for virtually the entire suite of critical minerals.
Within vast, integrated industrial parks, bauxite residues yield gallium, copper anode slimes produce tellurium and selenium, zinc intermediates generate indium and germanium, and rare-earth concentrates are separated—all in parallel. These complexes share state-directed ultra-low-cost electricity, concentrated pools of metallurgical and chemical engineering expertise, centralised reagent supply chains, and unified waste treatment and pollution-control systems that spread fixed costs across dozens of streams.
The result is a compounding productivity moat: marginal costs for each additional byproduct collapse, process innovation accelerates, and qualification for high-spec Western markets becomes routine.
In the second article, Tindale makes the point that what is sometimes called the Gulf Stream (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)) is in danger of dissipating again, as it did in the Younger Drias period, 12,800 years ago. At that time, humans needed to shift to agriculture instead of hunting and gathering to work around the problems. It is not clear that we have a workaround today. The northern hemisphere is in danger of cooling. The southern hemisphere may heat up. The article says:
Today, we are witnessing the exact preconditions that triggered the Younger Dryas. Over the last century, a distinct “cold blob” has swelled southeast of Greenland. Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has already weakened the AMOC by 15% since the mid-20th century. 15% is an enormous drop in that time period. . .
The Ultimate Cold Snap would redraw the world map of where people can live. Some places would freeze, others would overheat or dry out, and the entire global system would be thrown out of balance — exactly as it was 12,800 years ago. . .
When it happens is another story; 2025-2060 is the range, with some further beyond. It’s slowed by 15%, so the changeover could even be placed in the past. What we are seeing are signs and potential consequences, as well as further data that our current science overlooks, that make things look worse.
On the climate angle variations, interesting Roman empire excavations in Netherlands, basically they uncovered foundations of former spa complex, marble interior panels – not just some mil.outpost improvisation etc. One could assume it needed a lot of wood supply from nearby dense woods at that point ( also for the dwellings / city as such ), also they time the origins to the onset of campaign in Germania ( G. Inferior on the map linked to The Channel / NorthSea ) ..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germania
https://www.excitinghistory.com/location/nijmegen-romeinse-thermen/
https://nltimes.nl/2026/06/16/large-part-roman-bathhouse-found-intact-excavations-nijmegen
https://www.labrujulaverde.com/en/2026/06/largest-roman-bath-complex-in-the-netherlands-found-in-nijmegen/
..
.
It must not have been too cold in the area of Germania at the time the bathhouses were built.
I believe there was a Roman Warm Period, well before the Medieval Warm Period.
Climate keeps changing. People making long-term infrastructure investments today model the situation as if their proposed infrastructure will be useful indefinitely. They forget that climate is quite variable.
when any society reaches a certain level of prosperity, they extend their efforts to sustain it….
they cannot do this without increasing consumption of the resource that created their prosperity in the first place…
(this is an absolute)…..
but they are certain that their well being was the works of a god, so they pray to that god for more of the same..
The USA right now, is a perfect ongoing example of this, the jesusfreaks have convinced themselves that the USA is gods chosen land—its so full of ‘plenty’ that it must be so.
Vast swathes of current religiousity in the USA equates with 14thc Europe.
They belive their dear leader when he tells them that climate change is a hoax, so they expand cities in desrts, and deny all the signs that they are living in a finite environment.
All developed societies in history have followed exactly the same course…..
Zerohedge hails “normalization” but it states 14 crossings today. I assume that normally there would be many more in a day (20M barrels is about 10 supertankers plus the rest, LNG, aluminum urea and food). It has really become no better than MSM but if tomorrow they reopen all ships will be gone by Sunday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/hormuz-normalization-begins-saudi-supertankers-exit-and-flood-persian-gulf-oil-heads-asia
According to ZH’s title, the smart money is on the prisoner’s dilemma prevailing over economic wisdom coming from intimate knowledge of the Hand’s plans. Japan and other will restock their SPR as soon as feasible, prices be damned, so oil will stay high a while (in price paid for delivered oil of course).
Unless oil prices are low, my guess is that restocking of SPRs won’t take place. They have been put in place to level out prices when needed, and they likely will tend to act in this way.
What’s low? I can remember when oil was 30$ a barrel. It’s $60 for lunch for two people in America. That doesn’t seem to stop people from eating out. I think the system is much more resilient to high prices
I am guessing that SPRs will begin to refill if oil gets to $45 or $40 per barrel. It is this effect, besides the effect of greater usage at a lower oil prices that will get oil prices back up again, perhaps quickly.
$40-45 oil is not going to happen .
Look at 2020.
you miss the point about ”the cost of oil”—most people do.
back when oil cost only $2 a barrel, it was effectively free—and people lived the high life because of it.
This is what the maganuts refuse to accept—the ‘American dream” was support not by ‘oil energy’—but by ‘surplus oil energy’….there is a vast difference.
when oil was only a few hundred feet down, it cost almost nothing to get hold of….now its maybe 5 miles down, or has to be shipped from canada —that takes a lot of energy to do.
also we now have to fight wars to ensure our energy supplies, which wasnt the case 100 years ago—wars cost money, that money comes from oil i’m afraid. (there is no other source of money)…
There would be no war in Iran if they didnt have vast oil reserves.
so there is less for us to use to enjoy the high life.—in other words, to enjoy the surpluses.
this is why we cant absorb ever-rising oil prices—there is less and less surplus available….oil is a finite resource..and there are NO alternatives…
This isnt just ‘opinion’—you can go and check it for yourself.
Your $60 meal for 2 wouldnt make sense if it meant a 200 mile round trip to the restuarant.
Btw. lets just provide perspective on today’s $60 value, it can source groceries for small family (or one large male) per week. Meaning in industrialized world setting and avoiding crap in the shopping basket..
avaoiding crap in your shopping basket is an entirely different subject
Yes, that’s why put there “btw.” as in tangent topic-subject, detour, follow-up..
As yours key post just above, June 19, 2026 at 4:45 am, was a good one contribution, thanks.
i think the other factor, relative to energy and living is—how many hours do you have to works to keep yourself/family in essentials—food, clothing, housing etc?
if the answer is maybe 2 or 3 hours a week—you have a high standard of living….because you have plenty left over for non-essentials…. (that is your energy surpluse)
if its 35/40 hours a week, or more you are just scraping by
MPP will win over economic laws. I am getting this oil before it disappears for good. We will see it soon enough.
We are making progress on getting the area back to normal.
What progress ?
” 118 tankers from other Gulf producers remain stranded in the Gulf, according to Reuters, because they depend on insurers who demand a real guarantee of mine clearance—up to six months, according to the Pentagon—before giving the green light. That’s the timeline that truly alleviates the US stockpile, and it points to late July/August, coinciding with the four weeks Trump gave. ”
Insurance is a tricky issue . Iranian vessels and cargo is self insured so they raced out first . Remember DJT had established a USD 40 billion insurance fund during the war . There were ” zero” companies that opted for it . Not as simple as it seems .
Ok . Some progress or let us say retreat .
” Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President’s direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect.”
McDonalds app points expire if you don’t use them fast enough.
Just like UBI in countries they used this formula.
Snapchat now allows to change your profile picture to actual photo of yourself. You have to scan your face”
See they are using these things to condition us for “digital ID” and UBI.
Today I am optimistic. There are no mushroom clouds rising from Iran
It would take dozens perhaps hundreds.
Trump’s blunder will be extraordinarily painful for the USA. Strategically. Economically. Pain. Cushing running dry is just the start.
The belief that manned aircraft dominate has been ripped to shreds. The USA has no land based radar in the middle east. Only AWACs.
Pain.
Reality.
And the mushroom clouds did not rise.
That means our species is capable of sanity.
Consequences. Experiencing consequences is important. Am I eager for these consequences? Not in the least. IMO they will be very very painful and the reaction will not necessarily be logical. None the less the world will witness the pain. The world will witness the consequences of boldness with no strategic depth.
Learning opportunity.
Because in the other world conflict every single one of the bombs and missiles can have thermonuclear warheads.
Out of the woods? Not even close. We have been gifted with a learning opportunity.
Sanity prevailed. We have a learning opportunity. One that can not be ignored. Not this time. This time there are consequences. That is pains function. It can not be ignored. It’s unpleasantness is it’s function.
This could have been the end but it was not. We can embrace sanity. We have consequences to help us.
Now the possibility for sanity exists. The possibility of sanity has been demonstrated. Now we have a learning opportunity.
Perhaps just perhaps our species is sane.
I find that incredibly optimistic.
Yet, perspectives tend to differ.
For example, and in reaction to recent strikes on Moscow one of the younger and tech domain oligarchs said something to the effect, that such event-occasions are precisely why their forefathers underwent the painstaking dev program of n-weapons in the first place. In other word he would favor to use them immediately today!
Obviously, while this fellow is reportedly on good terms with the govs, he is likely a minority, since most of the elite is dual/or more passports wielding bunch, and their wealth is originally usury-money, real estate, shopping centers, ~fluff, .. derived.
And RU as state entity repelled the past incoming ~4-5x invasions back to ~17th century through something completely different, namely professional mil. establishment elites at the helm.
So, the risk is actually increasing notably around us all in global sense in newly arranged twists and plots, but regionally it could be off for some more time indeed, our individual mileage may till vary a bit ( comparatively )..
Having lived under the stick since it’s inception the Islamic Republic gets unlimited carrots. The outcome is not predictable. Putins model developed during his higher education freely trading energy for currency has failed to have a favorable outcome. No one knows what Irans model will be not even Iran itself They have never had unlimited carrots before. What the model will be is near completely dependent on a man with a dead father a dead wife and a dead daughter.
Let’s hope he has a taste for carrots.
Has the world ever changed this fast?
Perhaps my optimism is unwarranted?
Looks like you rescinded your accusation of my optimism regarding the DA and have reaccused yourself of that optimism. 🙂
Now it’s been three days or whatever since the MOU, the dust seems to be settling though the fog is still thick. Yesterday I was more doubtful due to the dust but today I’m somewhat less so and I’m feeling more BNS-y again. More myself lol.
While referencing the lyrics of Robert Wyatt’s aforementioned song, Signed Curtain, I had previously proposed that the Challah Inshallah Bread Ceasefire was a bridge following the first verse of war. I think that was right. And now I’m thinking this MOU business is the latter half of a double-bridge which is an occasional song structure used by some all-time greats. Musical bridges are known for representing plot twists and who wouldn’t call this MOU a plot twist?
This MOU is serving to cement the humiliation Trump and the military in the mainstream media. And Trump is further cementing his own humiliation by admitting the looming tank bottoms as being a primary driver of his decision. The MOU is also serving to put the ball squarely in Israel’s court which is a useful thing since the plan is to end Zionism.
Long live the BNS. Second and perhaps last verse still to come.
The way Israel behaves, if any country is going to get hit by a nuclear bomb, it seems like it will be Israel.
I don’t see that happening. The real question is will the oil transit Hormuz with combat in Lebanon continuing?
These are very difficult situations. Israel wants a DMZ south of the Litani. If they can’t get that they want fire bases well into Lebanon.
Without those north Israel becomes the defacto DMZ. More people will leave Israel
We don’t know but reports are there are significant casualties in the fighting. Since Thursdays are my optimism day I will suggest this. The fighting will continue for weeks or months but it is not sustainable beyond that. There will be no Geneva MOU negotiations in that time but hopefully oil will transit. Oil transit will ignore the war in Lebanon. The benefits of the MOU are so great for Iran oil will transit..
.
The only thing left to negotiate is Irans nuclear program. Absolutely. everything else was given to Iran in the MOU.
Longer term as some of Irans new found wealth enters Hezbollahs hands the sophistication of their capabilities will increase. Irans new status will increase their ability to supply Hezbollah. Israels nuclear deterent will increasingly be deployed on their northern border to counter not as a remote contingency but a active one. Without a doubt drones will soon be a delivery system. Like the Korean DMZ this could form the basis for the end of the conflict. Both nations have significant deterrents. A standoff could occur.
The MOU is already signed. Reports are sanctions already lifted. Only one thing matters. Is the strait open with Iranian control. If Iran wants to blow the deal of a lifetime over Lebanon they will. I don’t think they will. I think things will settle down. Slowly painfully. With risk.
Anything could happen. Anything.
dog not everything else was given to Iran with the MOU. The single biggest demand of the IRGC was NOT given – that the US military leaves the region and the bases close down. So I don’t think we can call it “the deal of a lifetime” when Iran is on its last legs just like every other country. The DA always predicted that Iranian sanctions would be lifted because Collapse MPP cannot happen without petrodollar maximization.
“The single biggest demand of the IRGC was NOT given – that the US military leaves the region and the bases close down.”
We know that no military vessels from any non gulf states are allowed and then there is point 4, which was one of those stipulated to be enacted before any further progress(it has started, although you find little mention).
“After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs”
“4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.”
We can argue about proximity, but it is clear by now that Iran and it’s missile/drone capabilities determine the definition of proximity.
You might also want to reconsider who exactly you believe made this demand. If you want to play along with the idiotic “hardliners” delusion, read Khamenei’s latest words(but the”hardliners” are the Iranian people).
Thanks Fitz. Yes, fair enough regarding the US forces as this is just an MOU. But still, “proximity” is vague like you allow, but kind of moot imo since I do see a full withdrawal as in accordance with Phase 2 of the DA.
And Trump completely ended the blockade within what 48hrs?! And Iran’s tankers are full steam ahead. Now that’s acting in good faith!
And meanwhile Iran is playing up the (mythical?) mines in the Omani channel and playing the irritating bureaucrat requiring email forms filled. That’s not “proportional” traffic as per paragraph 4!
And pulling out of Friday talks because Lebanon. Then Bibi bends the knee and calls a ceasefire.
Iran be like, “who’s yo daddy now bitchez?”
😄
Here’s the latest HouseOfSaud blog AI assisted article on the topic FWIW:
“The mine that defines the clearance challenge is the Maham-7, an Iranian-manufactured seabed influence mine. Its specifications are the reason the MOU’s thirty-day timeline does not translate into a thirty-day solution.
The Maham-7 weighs 220 kilograms. Its casing is glass-reinforced plastic composite — a material chosen because it scatters sonar returns, rendering the mine difficult to detect with conventional mine-countermeasure sonar. It operates in water depths of 10 to 300 feet, covering the full depth range of the Hormuz traffic lanes. It is programmable for one to ninety-nine targets — meaning it can allow a predetermined number of vessels to pass safely before arming for the next. Its activation window extends to 127 days, with an operational life of up to one year.
The 127-day arming window makes the MOU’s thirty-day commitment structurally insufficient as a safety guarantee. A mine programmed to arm on day 45 will sit inert throughout a 30-day clearance operation. It will pass sonar sweeps that test for active magnetic or acoustic signatures. It will remain in position after Iran declares the strait cleared. It will arm itself fifteen days after that declaration.
Physical removal of every mine would resolve this. But locating and neutralising up to 80 GRP-cased mines — each designed to defeat the sonar meant to find it — in a shipping lane that handled more than 150 transits per day requires equipment, time, and conditions the MOU does not address. Mine countermeasure vessels are slow, lightly armed, and vulnerable. They cannot operate safely in areas of active naval hostility. The IRGC’s “last warning” to USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. during minesweeping operations before the MOU was signed illustrated the paradox: the party assigned responsibility for clearance was simultaneously threatening the vessels attempting it.”
https://houseofsaud.com/mou-demining-hormuz-insurance-gap/
It’s all looking proportional from Iran’s perspective.
Winners privilege includes defining meaning and speaking out.
https://youtu.be/VAayt5BsEWg?si=qcsjwN2BusTQnPVZ
Didn’t read the a(not)I stuff, but thanks for the forewarning. Anything about the tribes displeasure?
Wonder if Iran will do the necessary tonight, or turn the screws a bit more first(it’s going to blow again, one way or another).
The good people of Yemen have announced their readiness and a reinvigorated Palestinian resistance might appear at the worst possible moment.
Thanks for the de-mining details!
Btw. that ” Bibi knee ” MoU skirmish involved just over previous half-night dozens (?50x) of dead Lebanese, ?4x dead IDF, and several air raid bombed and then bulldozed over dwellings in that area..
To provide a perspective.
PS yes in grand terms of ~20->50x or more tankers per day again going through; just a chump change..
Nice song. Orange bandanas representing South American popular protest against theocracy.
Speaking of which, yes, the Hormuz theocrats appear to be doing the disproproportionality thing because winning. That’s the officially approved narrative of Trumpian catastrophic capitulation anyway. Myself, I think it’s just the Hand tying a Gordian political knot of bow onto the peak oil predicament. If the world faces a structural predicament, a political predicament is in order in order to cover for the structural one.
Here’s another excerpt from the article:
“During the 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War, Iran laid mines in the Persian Gulf that damaged the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) in April 1988. Post-war clearance of Iranian mines was conducted by Western navies, not by Iran. The Tanker War ended without Iran providing mine maps, conducting clearance operations, or cooperating with international demining efforts. The MOU’s assignment of clearance responsibility to the party that laid the mines is without modern precedent in naval mine warfare. Every prior instance of post-conflict Gulf mine clearance has been conducted by the adversary of the party that laid the mines, not by the mine-laying state itself.”
The USS Roberts must have been the ship that Malcolm Nance was on when his ship ran into a mine.
Yes, very important points.
On the timing, it’s rather shocking development in ME/Persia if we just reflect our minds briefly to say 1-2yrs ago.. Hard to pin point the focus of this forcing: onset of PO, general civ degeneration, hi-tech dev, previous series of US interventions antagonizing cumulatively the petro-states of the region, .. all the above boiled over suddenly ?
In terms of RU, you are correct, he lucked out when setting up ventures for ~8yrs with then DE Chancellor Schröder ( oddity-exception amongst previous/following ones ), it was to benefit of all, later under Merkel it continued, although with various subversive side-plans, especially after ~2014-22, then nixed completely from “dear partners” into war-enemy status. Basically, what’s the increased prosperity for when the country’s security doctrine ( “our common European home”) has been demolished. Back to starting position of the 1990s or reversing even way into the past ~updated pre-1941 framework, but that’s next to impossible turn on a dime like that.
Sanity is reacting to no ammo in warehouses and one week from running out of oil in the storage tanks. Trump handlers understand there are enough people in the USA that people will come to their door.
Things do look better just now. But we live in a world of lots of temporary ups and downs.