Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

It is easy to overdo COVID-19 quarantines

Posted on March 11, 2020

We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading. Unfortunately, the situation with the new coronavirus causing COVID-19 is different: We can’t reliability determine which people are spreading the … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 4,403 Comments

Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19

Posted on February 18, 2020

We read a lot in the news about the new Wuhan coronavirus and the illness it causes (COVID-19), but some important points often get left out. [1] COVID-19 is incredibly contagious. COVID-19 transmits extremely easily from person to person. Interpersonal … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , , | 2,589 Comments

It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus

Posted on January 29, 2020

Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 1,772 Comments

Expect low oil prices in 2020; tendency toward recession

Posted on January 8, 2020

Energy Forecast for 2020 Overall, I expect that oil and other commodity prices will remain low in 2020. These low oil prices will adversely affect oil production and several other parts of the economy. As a result, a strong tendency … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , , | 1,162 Comments

Scientific Models and Myths: What Is the Difference?

Posted on December 17, 2019

Most people seem to think, “The difference between models and myths is that models are scientific, and myths are the conjectures of primitive people who do not have access to scientific thinking and computers. With scientific models, we have moved … Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , , , | 1,598 Comments