Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

Worrying indications in recently updated world energy data

Posted on July 14, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The Energy Institute recently published its updated energy report, the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, showing data through the year 2024. In this post, I identify trends in the new data that I consider worrying. These trends help explain the strange behaviors that we have been seeing from governments recently. Continue reading →

Posted in Alternatives to Oil, Energy policy, Financial Implications | Tagged , , | 1,300 Comments

What should individuals do in a world filled with conflict?

Posted on June 18, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

Regardless of how things play out, it is the physics of the self-organizing system that determines what happens next. No matter how offended we as individuals may feel regarding what some political party or politician has done or has not done, individuals are not able to fix the system, except to the extent that available inexpensive energy supply allows such a fix. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post, Planning for the Future | Tagged , , | 1,547 Comments

Economic contraction, coming right up

Posted on May 27, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

In this post, I will try to describe the physics-based limits that the economy is facing, related to diminishing returns of many kinds. The problem we are facing has sometimes been called “limits to growth,” or “overshoot and collapse.” Such changes tend to lead to a loss of “complexity.” Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post | Tagged , , , | 1,496 Comments

Brace for rapid changes in the economy; the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth

Posted on April 24, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The world economy is at a major turning point, which is why we should brace for rapid changes in the economy. The world is moving from having enough goods and services to go around, to not having enough to go around. The dynamics of the economy are very different with not enough to go around. The hoped-for solution of higher prices doesn’t fix the situation; after a point, adding more buying-power mostly produces inflation. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 1,643 Comments

Advanced Economies Are Being Pushed Toward Financial Collapse

Posted on March 31, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The US and many other Advanced Economies are likely heading into a worse and longer lasting financial crisis than the 2008 crisis, starting as soon as this summer. The problem will likely not start out as a full financial collapse. Instead, various leveraged borrowers will encounter difficulties. Gradually, the finances and very structures of many government organizations are likely to be threatened. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post, peak oil | Tagged , , , , | 1,987 Comments