In 2008, I said that an energy shortfall was likely to make it more difficult to pay back debt and to fund government promises, such as Social Security. Now there has been a big step down in US oil consumption:
The information we hear about GDP growth would make a person think that the economy is almost sailing along. It seems to me that if we look at the situation closely, per capita spendable income in $2005 dollars has dropped significantly, if one considers oil price changes and related drops in credit availability. More importantly, a model I developed suggests a serious gap has developed between what the government is now spending and what can reasonably be funded through tax revenue.